View Full Version : Ian Bremmer's J-curve Theory

09-06-2006, 11:49 PM
From the Thomas P.M. Barnett web log - Ian Bremmer's J-curve Theory (http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/archives2/003687.html).

... The J-curve concept basically says the if you're closed as a state, you're relatively stable (the lower-curl lip of the J). If you open yourself up to the outside world, you'll go unstable (the trough of the J) before you rise up the far side of stability+openness function on the stem of the J.

Taken as a generic description of development, which requires a degree of openness to the outside world (unless you can create your own mini-world system as the Sovs did during the Cold War), there's little argument with the stable expressed as a potential--as in, you risk a lot of instability in your political system as you open up to the outside world.

Taken that way, I could argue that Bremmer has simply offered a model to an argument that many, including myself in both my books, have already made in print--i.e., globalization can be a very destabilizing process for certain states, but if you can manage it, the resulting connectedness make you a more stable and peaceful state over time (roger that!)...

Just an intro to the post above - much more at the link...