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SWJED
01-10-2006, 09:36 AM
10 Jan. Los Angeles Times - European Women Join Ranks of Jihadis (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-women10jan10,1,3131117.story?coll=la-headlines-world).


... The story of the Dutch network, 14 members of which are now on trial, reveals the increasing aggressiveness and prominence of female extremists in Europe. In a chilling trend in the Netherlands and Belgium, police are investigating militants' wives suspected of plotting suicide attacks with their husbands, or on their own.

"I think it's a very dangerous trend," said Ali, the lawmaker targeted for assassination. "Women all over the world are seen as vulnerable, as less violent. And that can make anti-terror authorities less vigilant when it comes to women."...

kaur
01-30-2007, 07:38 AM
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/details.cfm?lng=en&id=27221

bismark17
01-30-2007, 07:32 PM
That looks really interesting. Thanks for posting that.

Jedburgh
04-12-2007, 02:23 PM
The first EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report TE-SAT 2007 (http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/TESAT/TESAT2007.pdf) produced by Europol was presented 10 April 2007 in the European Parliament in Brussels.

The report identifies three continuing trends within terrorism in EU countries: separatism, anarchism and Islamic extremism. While the vast majority of terrorist attacks reported in Europe in 2006 were separatist in nature, the largest number of arrests were linked to Islamic extremists. The report indicates that France, Spain and the UK are the countries most severely affected by terrorism, and that most terrorist incidents in Europe are designed to avoid human casualties.

The largest single category of incidents in 2006 was separatist attacks in France and the largest single category of arrests was also of separatists in France; nearly all related to the island of Corsica. Separatist attacks in Spain accounted for over one hundred incidents, despite the ceasefire maintained by Basque separatist group ETA during most of the year. Coming in a distant third in number of incidents was left-wing/anarchist attacks in Greece. At the bottom of the list were Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia, who all reported neither investigations nor court proceedings related to terrorism in 2006, suggesting that they are the least affected by terrorism in the region.

Sarajevo071
04-12-2007, 04:52 PM
Some very interesting info there. Thank you.

Jedburgh
07-17-2007, 01:26 PM
Commentary in response to the Europol EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report linked at the top of the thread:

GEES, 16 Jul 07: Europe and the Nature of the Terrorist Threat in 2007 (http://www.eng.gees.org/english/pdf/219/)

...It is worth noting in considering these facts and figures that Europol is not privy to the full range of information available from member states on terrorist attacks and incidents, primarily because some states such as the UK are reluctant to share details of ongoing operations, including arrests of suspects. The recently departed Director-General of the UK’s Security Service has suggested there are approximately 200 active Islamist jihadist networks active in Britain, comprising 30 known plots, and involving 1600 identified individuals. These statistics should be considered in con-junction with those made available to Europol.....

davidbfpo
10-19-2010, 07:44 AM
After a long delay a coroners inquest into the deaths in the 7/7 LOndon attack opened last week; albeit under special rules, a judge sitting as coroner and without a jury.

There have been several reports, but this one struck me as worthy of entering here. References have been made in another thread on the "spirit of the blitz" and this indicates to the contrary:
Mr Henning was the first survivor to give evidence at the inquest into the deaths of 52 people in four terrorist explosions on London’s transport system.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8072049/77-Inquest-What-happened-to-Blitz-spirit-asks-survivor.html

Last week there was an indication that Command & Control had "issues", starting with the phone system and this 'Achilles Heel' will re-appear:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8056928/77-inquest-emergency-phone-calls-reveal-77-tube-chaos.html

davidbfpo
01-08-2011, 07:46 PM
With a sub-title 'The threat is fragmenting and budgets are shrinking', a good overview of the current CT situation in Western Europe by Raffaello Pantucci, an independent analyst:http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/kmd/hst_201101/index.php#/40

davidbfpo
01-09-2011, 12:42 PM
A slightly different angle:http://www.opendemocracy.net/andy-yee/politics-of-fear?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_content=201210&utm_campaign=Nightly_2011-01-09%2005:30

davidbfpo
10-08-2011, 06:04 PM
A short nineteen page analysis by Raffaello Pantucci, of ICSR, presented in July 2011 at Chatham House:http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/International%20Security/010811wr_terrorism.pdf


This paper will explore the current state of the threat to Europe, how it is connected to the broader threat that is faced in the United States and how it has evolved in this direction. In concluding, it will offer some thoughts on the current direction the threat is going and sketch out some problems that
Europe might face in countering it.... Nevertheless, violent Islamist terrorism with its preference for large-scale multiple strikes using suicide bombers often
coordinated by outside actors continues to be the main threat that is focused on by European security services.

Several references are made to information recovered in OBL's home.

Regarding Preventing / Countering Violent Extremism (PVE / CVE):
the world has not yet found an effective and comprehensive solution to the problem of young people becoming excited by globalist Islamist anti-establishmentarian narratives and becoming persuaded to go and fight abroad and in some cases come back and plot terrorist acts. Broadly captured under the banner of Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) by the British government and subsequently emulated by many, the world has notably not managed to crack this code.

Ends with:
While it is clear that intelligence services across Europe have now begun to understand what it is that they are facing and to go
about chasing it, they remain unclear of how exactly to stamp it out. Consequently, ten years after 11 September 2001, Europe is continuing to manage its terrorist problem rather than eradicate it.

Bill Moore
10-09-2011, 07:30 AM
I don't think this study broke any new ground, but it is useful because it is unclassified and therefore valuable as an education tool for those who don't understand the nature of the threat.

One part of the study was the author's apparent conflicted view on the importance of Al Qaeda Core. In one paragraph he'll argue they're not important, and then in the next point to their control of terrorist cells in the West. In short AQ Core remains important (though less important), and as the study points out the threat ideology has taken on a life of its own allowing numerous individuals, cells and other organizations to participate in open source Jihad.

I didn't see any valuable recommendations in the study, but I think one he could have pointed out was that due to fragmented nature of Jihad threat and other terrorist groups and lone wolfs acting to support various cause that it is impertative that the European States maintain capable police and intelligence services and that the their people are educated to be eyes and ears for security forces.

There is no silver bullet for eliminating the threat or preventing the conversion of frustrated young people to the various extremist causes.

davidbfpo
10-09-2011, 04:23 PM
Under such a lurid headline, this is a newspaper story based on 'a senior intelligence source' and a "leaked" document - which may add some context to this thread.


The 200 British residents thought to be planning suicide attacks, either within the UK or overseas, represent one in 10 of the wider group of 2,000 terrorist plotters.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8815574/200-suicide-bombers-planning-attacks-in-UK.html

Bill Moore
10-09-2011, 11:09 PM
In no way are my comments intended to dismiss the very real and growing threat of Islamist terrorism in the U.K.; however, I find the "conservative" estimate of 200 suicide bombers in the U.K. to be a bit of a reach.

While a lot of young and not so young want to be jihadists will brag about their desire to die as a martyr for the cause, most suicide bombers (the real ones) undergo an intensive indoctrination period (or brainwashing) and then held in isolation until it is time to hit the target, because historically it has been demonstrated that they'll have a change of heart if they're allowed to rejoin society and become a sleeper bomber of sorts. Maybe there are Islamist safe havens within the U.K. where 10s of would be suicide bombers are isolated from the rest of society, but it seems unlikely. Of course I need to caveat the above statement that not all suicide bombers require extensive indoctrination (they're already true believers) and can hide in society openly for months and still hit their target as many of the 9/11 attackers did.


One report quoted an MI6 officer's briefing to US officials in which he said: "The internal threat is growing more dangerous because some extremists are conducting non-lethal training without ever leaving the country. Should these extremists then decide to become suicide operatives, HMG [Her Majesty's Government] intelligence resources, eavesdropping and surveillance would be hard pressed to find them on any 'radar screen'."

What type of non-lethal training are they talking about? Indoctrination?

There is no doubt that the insider threat is a growing concern in Europe and possibly the U.S. (especially the lone wolf attacks), but a suicide attack is an entirely different level. If they have the infrastructure in place within Europe (and in this case the UK) to indoctrinate, radicalize, inspire tens of individuals to conduct a suicide attack, and then of course actually provide the materials to do so (a topic not addressed in the article) then the threat is worse than I thought.

davidbfpo
08-24-2015, 12:29 PM
After the French train suspected 'lone wolf' attack analysts are chiming in on how Europe should respond, although this is a global problem IMHO.

The thread title is adapted from Raffaello Pantucci's writings (now @ RUSI):http://raffaellopantucci.com/2015/08/24/the-blend-of-high-impact-and-low-preparation-means-everyone-in-europe-is-a-potential-target/

The BBC has a former French intelligence agent Claude Moniquet adding his experienced viewpoint (he left the external service DGSE in 2002):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34032781

He ends with:
The only way to protect society against the terrorist threat lies in strengthening intelligence and laws.

The Soufan Group:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-what-the-foiled-train-attack-revealed/

Everyone in Europe or the UK yes is a potential target, everyone then is the first responder - as shown by the passengers on the French Thalys train. In the UK there is ample evidence that the vast majority of onlookers do not respond, indeed they simply walk on.

Several references have been made to five to six thousand former fighters who have returned from the Middle East, a number that simply overwhelms being kept under official surveillance. I am always slightly puzzled at this phrase; if they have returned do they all wish to fight again another day?

How many such incidents, with civilian deaths is tolerable?

I do wonder if imprisonment without trial, known simply as internment, is not on the horizon. Not that I today advocate this.

Firn
08-24-2015, 05:04 PM
Well there is no doubt at all that they saved many lives thanks to their quick thinking, personal bravery and decisive action. Honour where honour is due, and joy as well (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMJTycleWrc)

Every story is unique it came to a very happy ending partly due the incompetence of the wanna-be-murderer but why did those men grap their only very slim chance to stop him in such magnificient manner? There are some interesting aspects (http://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-families-are-grateful-french-train-attack-was-averted-1440272765):

1. Three of them were "childhood friends who had all attended California’s Freedom Christian School and often played military games together growing up."

2. Two of them were soldiers, maybe better American soldiers and one of them came just back from a combat tour.

3. Three were large, young and fit males.

There is no doubt that the cohesion of friendship of fit and strong men with a good deal of military training greatly facilitated their unity of action, but without their personal qualities like bravery among others those factors all would have been for naught.

Moderator's Note

Wise words and copied to this thread from another:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=22529

AdamG
09-11-2015, 09:32 PM
I'll just leave these two articles here for comparison and contrast.

From February 15, 2015 -


ISIS threatens to send 500,000 migrants to Europe as a 'psychological weapon' in chilling echo of Gaddafi's prophecy that the Mediterranean 'will become a sea of chaos'
Italian press today published claims that ISIS has threatened to release the huge wave of migrants to cause chaos in Europe if they are attacked
And letters from jihadists show plans to hide terrorists among refugees
In 2011, Muammar Gaddafi ominously predicted war would come to Libya
He was deposed in a violent coup and killed in October of the same year
Islamic State executed 21 Egyptian Christians on Libyan beach this week
Crisis in Libya has led to surge in number of migrants heading for Europe


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2958517/The-Mediterranean-sea-chaos-Gaddafi-s-chilling-prophecy-interview-ISIS-threatens-send-500-000-migrants-Europe-psychological-weapon-bombed.html#ixzz3lT4lvGnW

From September 3rd, 2015


The Greek coastguard has seized a ship loaded with thousands of undeclared, carefully concealed weapons, and possibly explosives, en route from Turkey to Libya. Local media claims the ship is linked to Islamic State (IS) and to companies who have previously smuggled goods to Syria – the Turkish foreign minister denies this.

The ship had come from Alexandretta in Egypt on to the Turkish port of Iskenderun, and was bound for the Libyan port of Misrata – a stronghold of the Muslim Brotherhood-linked group “Libya Dawn.”

It was raided on Tuesday 20 nautical miles off Create and has now been escorted to the port of Heraklion where searches began on Wednesday. The ship flies under a Bolivian flag, but its seven-member crew are thought to be from Syria, Egypt and India.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/09/03/greece-seizes-isis-linked-weapons-shipment/

AdamG
09-12-2015, 11:01 PM
At Budapest’s Keleti Train Station last week, Mahmoud, a Syrian from Aleppo, looked around the underground concourse packed with new arrivals like himself. Judging from their accents and dialects, he reckoned that little more than 10% of them were Syrian. But he saw many more passing themselves off as Syrians.

Indeed, during his journey through Greece and the Balkans on his way to Hungary, “I found a bunch of Iraqis buying fake Syrian passports,” said Mahmoud, adding that now Syrians “are worried that their passports are being stolen.” Nearby, a countryman furtively showed his passport, tucked between the sole and padding of one of his sneakers.

As Europe moves to take in large numbers of refugees, particularly from Syria, some other migrants—often Iraqis, Libyans, Palestinians and Egyptians—are attempting to pass themselves off as Syrian, said aid workers, government officials and fellow migrants.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/migrants-pose-as-syrians-to-open-door-to-asylum-in-europe-1442013612?mod=e2fb

davidbfpo
09-13-2015, 11:30 AM
AdamG,

I would not always regard The Daily Mail as a reputable source of information. The February 2015 article when read relies on IIRC Italian intelligence officials and a lot of history, with photos. It also has a practice of accepting "spin" from agencies here.

Have you found any update on the arms smuggling vessel the Greeks stopped in international waters in September 2015? Without an update it is an official allegation. Some photos would be persausive and criminal charges too.

Elsewhere on SW Forum there has been a limited discussion on ISIS infiltrating Western Europe by placing their cadres within the mass of refugees.

In the UK there are estimates by ICSR usually that at least half of thsoe who went to fight in Syria have returned, many of them without being officially detected. It is not clear who they fought for (my opinion is they are from the pre-ISIS period), nor what made them change their minds.

Why risk cadres within the mass of refugees, who apparently are mainly being moved by criminal gangs for money? Often at risk from the gangs and being shipwrecked etc.

AdamG
09-15-2015, 06:46 PM
Most folks are cognizant of the "Daily Wail's" shortcomings but here ya go.

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/proche-moyen-orient/libye-daech-menace-d-envoyer-500-000-migrants-vers-l-europe_1653210.html

http://www.ilmessaggero.it/primopiano/esteri/isis_intercettazione_migranti_italia/notizie/1186106.shtml

As for 'cadres', considering the phenomenal lack of skill shown by the Charlie Hebdo shooters or the bozo that got his ass beaten on the train at Arras, I think that term is excessively charitable.

"Expendable True Believers" are perfect candidates to send across the Med to slaughter some Infidels and in this internet age, ISIS C4 assets don't need to be risked as long as their same little hackers we've seen to date are on the job.

We've also already seen how the *real* ISIS cadre has no problem using volunteers as cannon fodder take positions from Assad's forces, so the perfectly logical extrapolation would find some with their bags packed wailing for the Euro media's cameras.

As for the Haddad 1, updates aren't that hard to find but I'll oblige.

Charges specified
http://www.ekathimerini.com/201170/article/ekathimerini/news/officials-complete-search-of-weapon-packed-haddad-1

Current vessel location indicates that it's still moored.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/details/ships/shipid:213752/mmsi:720917000/imo:7413921/vessel:HADDAD_1

AdamG
09-16-2015, 01:12 PM
File under "Perception Management" - Looks like ISIS flags to me (http://conservativepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/11999052_1529876560636157_7109291482299806963_n.jp g)

SWJ Blog
12-30-2015, 01:42 AM
Afghan Emigration to Europe Seen as Setback (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/afghan-emigration-to-europe-seen-as-setback)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/afghan-emigration-to-europe-seen-as-setback) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
02-05-2016, 09:54 PM
A rare, detailed article on counter-terrorism in Belguim before the latest attacks in Paris, a week after the Hebdo attack; the former were linked to a suburb of Brussels, Molenbeek:http://www.buzzfeed.com/joshuahersh/the-anti-terror-raid-that-asked-all-the-wrong-questions#.pgNVQOLglm

The headline & sub-title:
What They Missed: The Anti-Terror Raid That Asked All The Wrong Questions Ten months before the deadly attacks in Paris, a nighttime raid in a quiet corner of Belgium left an apartment destroyed, two suspected attackers dead, one man arrested — and a host of unanswered questions. BuzzFeed News’ Joshua Hersh investigates a shoot-out that showed Europe’s terrorism problem starts at home.

davidbfpo
03-19-2016, 10:46 PM
Taken from CTC's Sentinel an article by Raffaello Pantucci; the Abstract says:
While clearly at the top of the Islamic State’s targeting list, the United Kingdom so far has been spared from any major terrorist atrocities at home with direct links to the Islamic State. A review of the trials of those accused of terrorist plotting in the country between 2013 and 2015 reveals that the violent Islamist threat picture has instead been dominated by lone-actor plots, with some demonstrating connections of some sort to individuals on the battlefield in Syria or Iraq. Going forward, however, the threat is likely to become more acute as the Islamic State pivots toward international terror.
Link:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-islamic-state-threat-to-britain-evidence-from-recent-terror-trials

OUTLAW 09
03-22-2016, 08:11 AM
For those SWJ readers who think that IS does not drive on an intelligence driven operations concept...their attack cells use a form of OPSEC tradecraft that resembles that of spy cell tradecraft......think again.....reference today's Brussels airport bombing....we saw this as far back as 2003 in Iraq and it has not changed since 2003.

Cells operating by the book if one gets neutralized the other one gets into action to divert attention from the first cell.....and what has come out of the Brussels major arrest....not a single use of any form of communications outside of face to face....defeats every time any form of major communications surveillance operations.

Defeating IS cells has always been about the heavy use of police and security services to defeat them using their own tactics...not through the use of high tech which we seem to think is the be all end all.

davidbfpo
03-23-2016, 04:11 PM
Two charts which illustrate the long history of terrorism and CT in Europe, which alas do not copy:http://qz.com/558597/charted-terror-attacks-in-western-europe-from-the-1970s-to-now/

davidbfpo
03-26-2016, 09:16 PM
Two more charts on deaths caused by terrorism 1970-2015 and people killed by terrorism 1970-2016 - the later includes those with an Islamist inspiration:http://www.datagraver.com/case/people-killed-by-terrorism-per-year-in-western-europe-1970-2015

davidbfpo
03-28-2016, 09:13 PM
BBC reporter, Peter Taylor and an assistant, have a hour long 'Panorama' documentary on:
From highly organised cells like the one that killed 130 people in Paris, to lone attackers within our own communities, Panorama reveals how the so-called Islamic State's terror network has been operating secretly in Europe, and Western intelligence agencies' battle to stop it.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07598xc/panorama-inside-europes-terror-attacks

It aapeared on TV here 23rd March 2016, it clearly relies on a number of "leaks", notably from the French, supplemented by a number of interviews and especially of an ISIS suspect in French custody.

davidbfpo
03-31-2016, 05:28 PM
Interesting contribution by Nigel Inkster, ex-SIS (MI6) and now with IISS:http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2016-9143/march-71d7/terrorism-europe-and-brexit-c6ab

An interesting part:
Last week I featured briefly in the BBC's Panorama (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07598xc) programme, which depicted in remarkable detail how ISIS had planned and orchestrated the complex, multi-phase Paris and Brussels attacks. As is always the way, many of my comments ended up on the cutting-room floor. But during my interview to camera I tried to explain the difficulties intelligence and security services face in dealing with transnational terrorist plots. Intelligence does not come in a regular flow and when it does come it seldom admits of only one interpretation, nor does it always lead inexorably to the next piece in the puzzle. Items of intelligence that in retrospect seem crucially important do not always seem so when they first come to light. Working in counter-terrorism is to see the world always through a glass darkly. Panorama showed that Europe's intelligence and security services knew they were facing a major problem, knew many of the actors involved and were in a desperate race with the terrorists. They were able to avert some of the plots, but could not pre-empt them all. I know from personal experience what it feels like to lose that race. Successful counter-terrorism operations involve a degree of luck. To talk of 'joining the dots', as if the complexities and uncertainties of such work can be reduced to the predictable simplicity of a child's colouring book, is not helpful.

davidbfpo
04-03-2016, 07:05 PM
A useful commentary by Daniel Byman:https://www.lawfareblog.com/europe-vs-america-comparing-terrorism-threat

SWJ Blog
04-05-2016, 07:08 PM
Experts: Troops in Europe Could be Next Terrorist Target (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/experts-troops-in-europe-could-be-next-terrorist-target)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/experts-troops-in-europe-could-be-next-terrorist-target) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
06-09-2016, 08:21 PM
Tom Rogan, an unknown writer to me, in National Review, with a rare article on CT in Germany:http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436156/isis-dusseldorf-terror-plot-germany-raids-daesh-terror-cell

One "takeaway" cited in part:
A sustaining theme of the Daesh plots in Europe has been their ambition of sparking public fury and a backlash against Muslims on the continent. Consider the Dusseldorf plotters’ strategy of deploying Syrian men via migrant routes to massacre families on a German street: Had the terrorists succeeded, they would have fueled already significant tensions in Europe over migration from the Middle East.

Azor
07-15-2016, 05:32 PM
Moderator's Note

A debate on the Forum, started a couple of days ago on the current thread on French CT, deserves a thread - for the debate and wider implications, especially as savagery is a feature (hat tip to Adam G for his post) (Ends).

We've all seen the atrocity in Nice, and it is safe to assume that this is a Muslim terror attack.

Already, we have seen some calling for collective punishment (e.g. Newt Gingrich in the US) and others calling for greater intelligence coordination from French authorities.

I wanted to look at France's terror problem in the context of the Troubles in Northern Ireland. Although commonly considered one of the few examples of successful counter-insurgency, I would argue that the British and the Catholic Republicans fought each other to a standstill and then a political solution was reached. Essentially, the Protestant loyalists could no longer treat their Catholic minority inequitably and use military and law enforcement powers to do so; nor could they also maintain paramilitaries who often had overlapping membership with local law enforcement. Relatively speaking, this political solution was simple and reasonable.

Note that the Catholic population (~40%) numbered roughly 640,000 during the Troubles, and the IRA only had 10,000 (1.56% of population) volunteers at any given time, of which only a small portion (300 combat, 450 support) were engaged in armed attacks. Against this, the British security forces numbered some 23,000 (RUC and military).

French Muslims number 3.5 to 5 million, but using the lower number and assuming militancy on par with the Troubles (1.56%), we come to a figure of 55,000 militants of which over 4,000 would actively participate or support a terrorist attack. This would then require over 126,000 security personnel, or 49% of the French Army and 26% of the French National Police and Gendarmerie, depending upon the breakdown. Is this possible given France's resources? And what political solution is Paris to come to? Allow for Sharia law? Create Muslim Bantu-stans? Pay off unemployed and criminal Muslim youth?

It would be much easier to simply employ collective punishment in order to ensure that French Muslims fear the state more than their own community...
And before the bleeding hearts come out, keep in mind that we've done it before to defeat the evils of slavery and Fascism.

Collective punishment was used during the American Civil War and also during World War II. We have acknowledged that not all Japanese supported the IRAA and not all Germans supported the NSDAP, and that some were civilians and some were combatants. Nevertheless, the Allies considered Axis civilians legitimate targets for strategic or terror bombing unless they acted to bring down their governments and end the war.

In fact, the Allies dropped leaflets instructing the Germans and Japanese to act against their governments if they wanted a halt in the bombing. While stories of German resistance to the NSDAP are coming to light, the fact is that there was no significant resistance of any sort after the defeat of Poland and the Western Allies: only when Germany was facing a multi-front war and was suffering due to attrition did serious opposition plots begin. While most of the populations of Germany and Japan did not conspire directly to wage aggressive war and commit unspeakable crimes, they were nevertheless complicit. In my opinion, we need to make complicity unsafe.

Thoughts?

davidbfpo
07-15-2016, 06:08 PM
Azor,

An interesting post that.

From my perspective 'The Troubles', which was a very violent time, although with "hot spots" in just a few places and at the end confined to South Armagh (on the Irish border). The British campaign can be seen as containment of violence until a political solution was possible. The counter-insurgency campaign was also localised, so local manpower was used (RUC & UDR) and after "hard times" was a very accurate, intelligence led struggle.

If there was "collective punishment" it was a "recruiting sergeant" for the 'hard men', who supposedly protected their own communities. You can argue 'The Troubles' lasted so long as it was used; for many years 'hard men' escaped identification, imprisonment, with some dying.

So collective punishment is not an option.

COIN, if not CT, when you consider the time factor is alas slow and all too often is painful.

I also recall in 2015 at the time of the Charlie Hebdo attack one of the senior French police officers (Gendarmerie GIGN IIRC) was a Muslim who commanded at one of the two sieges, as was the bicycle cop shot outside the Charlie Hebdo premises. How would collective punishment affect them?

Citing you directly:
In my opinion, we need to make complicity unsafe.

IMHO the vast majority of Muslims are not complicit here (UK), nor in France or the USA. To some they may "sit on the fence", your option would serve our enemies first and foremost.

slapout9
07-15-2016, 06:14 PM
We've all seen the atrocity in Nice, and it is safe to assume that this is a Muslim terror attack.

Already, we have seen some calling for collective punishment (e.g. Newt Gingrich in the US) and others calling for greater intelligence coordination from French authorities.

I wanted to look at France's terror problem in the context of the Troubles in Northern Ireland. Although commonly considered one of the few examples of successful counter-insurgency, I would argue that the British and the Catholic Republicans fought each other to a standstill and then a political solution was reached. Essentially, the Protestant loyalists could no longer treat their Catholic minority inequitably and use military and law enforcement powers to do so; nor could they also maintain paramilitaries who often had overlapping membership with local law enforcement. Relatively speaking, this political solution was simple and reasonable.

Note that the Catholic population (~40%) numbered roughly 640,000 during the Troubles, and the IRA only had 10,000 (1.56% of population) volunteers at any given time, of which only a small portion (300 combat, 450 support) were engaged in armed attacks. Against this, the British security forces numbered some 23,000 (RUC and military).

French Muslims number 3.5 to 5 million, but using the lower number and assuming militancy on par with the Troubles (1.56%), we come to a figure of 55,000 militants of which over 4,000 would actively participate or support a terrorist attack. This would then require over 126,000 security personnel, or 49% of the French Army and 26% of the French National Police and Gendarmerie, depending upon the breakdown. Is this possible given France's resources? And what political solution is Paris to come to? Allow for Sharia law? Create Muslim Bantu-stans? Pay off unemployed and criminal Muslim youth?

It would be much easier to simply employ collective punishment in order to ensure that French Muslims fear the state more than their own community...
And before the bleeding hearts come out, keep in mind that we've done it before to defeat the evils of slavery and Fascism.

Collective punishment was used during the American Civil War and also during World War II. We have acknowledged that not all Japanese supported the IRAA and not all Germans supported the NSDAP, and that some were civilians and some were combatants. Nevertheless, the Allies considered Axis civilians legitimate targets for strategic or terror bombing unless they acted to bring down their governments and end the war.

In fact, the Allies dropped leaflets instructing the Germans and Japanese to act against their governments if they wanted a halt in the bombing. While stories of German resistance to the NSDAP are coming to light, the fact is that there was no significant resistance of any sort after the defeat of Poland and the Western Allies: only when Germany was facing a multi-front war and was suffering due to attrition did serious opposition plots begin. While most of the populations of Germany and Japan did not conspire directly to wage aggressive war and commit unspeakable crimes, they were nevertheless complicit. In my opinion, we need to make complicity unsafe.

Thoughts?
I can't remember where I read the quote but it goes like this. "Culture beats Strategy"! In the end we must attack the "culture of violence" within Islam or nothing will change. But this will never happen with our current leadership. Simply saying most Muslims are "good" and then give a pass as far as responsibility simply will not work.

Azor
07-15-2016, 07:52 PM
I use the Troubles as a benchmark, as they were perceived as "a very violent time". They were responsible for fatalities of roughly 75 per million per year. For perspective, this is roughly have of the annual death rate during the Malaya Emergency or African American intraracial homicide (given current events). Therefore, I use the Troubles as a useful benchmark.

Back to the math, although ~1.56% of Catholics in Northern Ireland were IRA members on an ongoing basis (10,000), only ~0.12% were participating in Active Service Units (~300) or directly supporting ASU activities (~450). Arrayed against them were 25,000 soldiers, police and special forces: 7% of the police and land forces available to the UK. Again, a similar level of militancy among French Muslims would be an intolerable burden on French national security.


If there was "collective punishment" it was a "recruiting sergeant" for the 'hard men', who supposedly protected their own communities.

Certainly the retaliation meted out by Loyalist paramilitaries, which mostly targeted innocent Catholics, only served to fuel IRA recruitment. In addition, the visible presence of British soldiers and the heavily armed RUC contributed to a feeling of living under occupation.


I also recall in 2015 at the time of the Charlie Hebdo attack one of the senior French police officers (Gendarmerie GIGN IIRC) was a Muslim who commanded at one of the two sieges, as was the bicycle cop shot outside the Charlie Hebdo premises. How would collective punishment affect them?

Yes, I recall that as well. During the Troubles, a number of Catholic spies helped save lives and target terrorists.


IMHO the vast majority of Muslims are not complicit here (UK), nor in France or the USA. To some they may "sit on the fence", your option would serve our enemies first and foremost.

What I would advocate is a two-fold approach. In any minority group with grievances, one finds egalitarians and supremacists. The "hearts and minds" approach should be directed at the egalitarians, while the supremacists are brutally crushed.

I wouldn't suggest aggressive and visible policing of Muslim areas, but I would suggest the Nice terrorist's friends and family, as well as those of any accomplices, are seized in raids by special forces and subject to indefinite detention if the authorities cannot determine if they were involved or pose a threat. No armored cars driving through the neighborhood, no stop and searches, no harassment, just a household gone in the middle of the night. And during the day, well, social workers will be hard at work in the community attempting to make the situation better.

slapout9
07-15-2016, 11:47 PM
We have to find another General Sherman. Sherman wrote that European style war would not work( aka Clausewitze) He decided to wage war against the entire Southern/British slave culture Infrastructure........we will have to do something similar against Radical Islam

AdamG
07-16-2016, 12:46 PM
Do you people fully appreciate who - or rather, what - you're dealing with?


A French government committee has heard testimony, suppressed by the French government at the time and not published online until this week, that the killers in the Bataclan tortured their victims on the second floor of the club.

The chief police witness in Parliament said that an investigating officer, tears streaming down his face, rushed out of the Bataclan and vomited in front of him just after seeing the disfigured bodies.

According to this testimony, Wahhabist killers apparently gouged out eyes, castrated victims, and shoved their testicles in their mouths. They may also have disemboweled some poor souls. Women were stabbed in the genitals – and the torture was, victims told police, filmed for Daesh or Islamic State propaganda. For that reason, medics did not release the bodies of torture victims to the families, investigators said.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/07/15/french-lawmakers-told-bataclan-terrorists-tortured-disemboweled-victims.html


In just the recent past, ISIS has put 25 Iraqi 'spies in muriatic acid (May 19th), in Mosul burned 19 women to death in cages in front of hundreds of #people after they refused to have sex with them (June 10th), skinned alive an Afghan (June 12th), tossed a few gay guys off a roof (June 29th), and boiled alive seven of it's own deserters (July 5th).

davidbfpo
07-16-2016, 01:17 PM
A debate on the Forum, started a couple of days ago on the current thread on French CT, deserves a thread - for the debate and wider implications, especially as savagery is a feature (hat tip to Adam G for his post).

This post will drop from No.1 when the posts are transferred.

The main thread on French CT is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=15299

davidbfpo
07-16-2016, 01:29 PM
Richard Barrett, ex-SIS, has a short article today that fits here; the actual title being 'The best defence against terrorism is to show that it does not work as a way of changing government policy or public perception'. A key passage:
There are two strands to making terrorism less attractive. The first is to encourage public resilience to terrorism; the second is to ensure a proportionate response.
Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/the-best-defence-against-terrorism-is-to-show-that-it-does--not/

AdamG
07-16-2016, 01:33 PM
We have to find another General Sherman. Sherman wrote that European style war would not work( aka Clausewitze) He decided to wage war against the entire Southern/British slave culture Infrastructure........we will have to do something similar against Radical Islam

What Sherman had going for him was that when it was time to go Delenda Est on the Confederates, he didn't pull his punches but as soon as resistance stopped, he was compassionate (eg; had 50,000 rations found in captured reb warehouses immediately distributed to starving civilians).

For 21st century comparison, see also
http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-i-come-in-peace-i-didn-t-bring-artillery-but-i-m-pleading-with-you-with-tears-in-my-eyes-if-you-james-mattis-251288.jpg

AdamG
07-16-2016, 01:35 PM
A debate on the Forum, started a couple of days ago on the current thread on French CT, deserves a thread - for the debate and wider implications, especially as savagery is a feature (hat tip to Adam G for his post).

This post will drop from No.1 when the posts are transferred.

Awesome. Suggest migrating Slappy's Sherman reference and my response as well.

davidbfpo
07-20-2016, 09:11 AM
Azor,

How does 'collective punishment' of Muslims post-Nice work when the NYT reports? My emphasis added:
When a Tunisian man drove a truck down a crowded street in Nice last week in an attack claimed by the Islamic State, more than one-third of the people he killed were Muslim, the head of a regional Islamic association said on Tuesday.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/world/europe/nice-truck-attack-victims-muslims.html?_r=0

There is a far wider application as it is a fact that more Muslims have been killed across the globe by Jihadists, than non-Muslims.

davidbfpo
07-20-2016, 04:07 PM
The Soufan Group Intel Brief has an article today. BLUF:
Several recent terror attacks have involved suspects previously unknown to counterterrorism officials. • Investigators have used terms like ‘rapid radicalization’ to describe the trajectory of suspects who displayed no traditional indicators of terrorism.
• The absence of narrow terrorism indicators is not followed by the absence of indicators of radicalization and violence.
• Broadening the scope of indicators to include the propensity for violence and misogyny, among others traits, may demonstrate that radicalization is a much longer process than widely understood.
Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-the-shifting-indicators-of-terrorism/


Changing the CT machinery maybe needed, with a potentially wider role for advance warning from civil institutions and the public.

AdamG
07-23-2016, 11:39 AM
Anyone care to place their bets now?



MUNICH (AP) — Police were hunting Saturday for clues to explain why an 18-year-old German-Iranian man opened fire at a crowded Munich shopping mall and fast-food restaurant, killing nine people and wounding 16 others before killing himself.

The attack in the Bavarian capital sparked a massive security operation as authorities — already on edge after the recent attacks in Wuerzburg and Nice, France — received witness reports of multiple shooters carrying rifles shortly before 6 p.m. (1600 GMT). Six hours later police declared a "cautious all clear," saying the suspect was among the 10 dead and that he had likely acted alone.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/police-hunt-for-motive-in-munich-shooting-that-left-10-dead/ar-BBuHU85?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

AdamG
07-26-2016, 02:56 PM
A priest has been killed in an attack by two armed men on his church in a suburb of Rouen in northern France.

The attackers entered the church in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray during Mass, taking the priest, Fr Jacques Hamel, 84, and four other people hostage.

Police later surrounded the church and French TV said shots were fired. Both hostage-takers are now dead.

The Amaq news agency, linked to so-called Islamic State, said "two IS soldiers" had carried out the attack.

President Francois Hollande said the men had claimed to be from IS.

Speaking in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, he said the attackers had committed a "cowardly assassination" and France would fight IS "by all means".

Pope Francis decried the "pain and horror of this absurd violence".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36892785?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

davidbfpo
07-26-2016, 05:27 PM
One of the events in Germany, the machete attack on a woman @ Reutlingen, although not IS-related, but a crime of passion does have one relevant aspect:
A BMW driver then accelerated and knocked him down. After that he lay on the ground and did not move.

In some reports the driver appeared likely to have been a Muslim. I only cite the source of the quote:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/24/syrian-refugee-kills-woman-with-machete-in-southern-germany/

davidbfpo
07-27-2016, 03:46 PM
First the bomb attack @ Ansbach, Bavaria, Germany and a report - in an IS magazine - that the suspect:
...had fought with al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. It appears that Daleel later pledged allegiance to Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) after the 2013 split from Nusra....he left Syria to seek treatment after he was wounded in a mortar attack. He travelled on to Germany posing as a refugee.
(From another source) He was to be deported to Bulgaria under the EU’s Dublin rules, but the move was delayed by his claims of ill health.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/27/ansbach-bombers-membership-of-jihadist-group-raises-questions-ov/

Leaving aside whether any agency could have id'd his past in Syria, there is the scale of migration into Germany in 2015, over a million people.

Second yesterday's murderer in a church in Normandy, France:
The 19-year-old was under police supervision and wore a tag following his release in March after 10 months of preventative custody for trying to go to Syria....Ordered to live at his parents’ home, he was allowed out between 8.30am and 12.30pm on weekdays, and from 2pm to 6pm on weekends. He was, therefore, within his rights to be out at the time of the attack...
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/27/normandy-church-attack-who-is-the-suspect-adel-kermiche/

Taking a wider view a French-Algerian commentator:
The vast majority of the terrorists who have now slaughtered some 250 people in separate incidents across France over the past 18 months were just as well known to the authorities as Kermiche. Many were meant to be in prison, or – again like Kermiche – at least reporting to their local police stations under strict bail terms. Instead they were given more than enough freedom to move across borders and acquire the arms necessary to carry out their carnage pretty much anywhere they chose.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/27/president-hollande-is-on-his-way-out-his-failure-to-stop-jacques/

Kermiche clearly was a "hard case" to change, but France has almost no such state capability (like Germany).

davidbfpo
07-27-2016, 04:20 PM
CTC's current issue of Sentinel has a focus on Germany and two analysts from two regional offices of the Federal Office of the Protection of the Constitution and with my emphasis:
CTC: Several members of the Paris and Brussels attack cell transited through Germany, including through a refugee center in Ulm. To what degree has the migrant crisis produced a security threat to Europe?
Said: There has been a public outcry bringing together the two big current issues of terrorism and migration. And of course Paris, Brussels, and also Wrzburg and Ansbach showed us there has been a link between the two in some particular cases. But paranoia and hysteria are at risk of overshadowing the actual facts. Since 2015 more than one million refugees have come to Germany, but the federal police office (BKA) has so far received terrorism tips on 400 individuals and has undertaken 40 investigations in this context. The majority of the hints turned out to be unsubstantiated. So when it comes to refugees, you can speak of a very small and dwindling number of suspicious persons who are subject to investigations. Of course there is the danger that persons whom security authorities are not aware of might be involved in plots. But this was also the case before the exodus of Syrian and Iraqi people began, and it should be noted we also had a history of failed or foiled plots in Germany by German citizens or residents well before the recent migrant flows. All in all you can say that the migration wave is an additional challenge for the security apparatus, but it is not the cause for the unprecedented terror threat. The cause for that is the Islamic State and its global supportersLink:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/a-view-from-the-ct-foxhole-hazim-fouad-and-behnam-said-analysts-at-the-bremen-and-hamburg-verfassungsschutz

davidbfpo
07-28-2016, 12:44 PM
The last sentence from David Wells thoughtful column in the Australian e-bulletin of the Lowy Institute:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/07/28/Nice-Orlando-and-more-Latest-attacks-show-the-limits-of-counter-terrorism.aspx#.V5muKDol8CY.twitter

A "taster":
While lone actors or self-starters were certainly a concern, they typically struggled to build explosive devices or get access to weaponry without contacting known terrorist or criminal entities. Unfortunately, isolated actors and their cheerleaders overseas have realised this too. As Nice, Orlando and potentially Wurzburg all demonstrate, these unconnected individuals or networks are instead focusing on softer and typically more local targets. And utilising an attack methodology that challenges intelligence agency notions of what behaviour makes an individual 'look like a terrorist'. After all, possessing a knife or renting a truck is no obvious precursor to a terrorist attack.

davidbfpo
08-14-2016, 04:21 PM
Simplicity via a tweet by Professor John Horgan, a SME (which does not copy):
Bottom Line

Violent extremism is diverse

Violent extremism is complex

Violent extremism is detectable

But that doesn't mean it always is preventable

davidbfpo
12-24-2016, 02:37 PM
The free, online resource Perspectives on Terrorism has a new edition devoted to terrorism in Europe, with many articles and I will draw attention to only one. Needless to say written before the Berlin attack.

Link to latest issue:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot

Those who follow CT are probably familiar with the output of a very small Norwegian team, Thomas Hegghammer is one and his article is a 'must read': The Future of Jihadism in Europe: A Pessimistic View:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/566/1122

His conclusion ends with:
If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse, it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the hard kind. Perhaps Europe needs to spend significantly more to improve education in immigrant-heavy areas. Perhaps we must consider longer prison sentences for terrorism offences. I do not purport to know exactly what might work. However, continuing as we do today, with small, incremental policy adjustments, arguably has a predictable outcome. It is a Europe with much larger intelligence services, an entrenched Muslim economic underclass, and more anti-Muslim sentiment.

davidbfpo
12-27-2016, 06:38 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0rxPnJXEAAA0_E.jpg

Via Twitter

SWJ Blog
12-27-2016, 09:42 PM
Why ISIL Fights in Europe (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/why-isil-fights-in-europe)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/why-isil-fights-in-europe) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
02-09-2017, 12:40 AM
A Book Review of “Islamist Terrorism in Europe: A History” (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-book-review-of-%E2%80%9Cislamist-terrorism-in-europe-a-history%E2%80%9D)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-book-review-of-%E2%80%9Cislamist-terrorism-in-europe-a-history%E2%80%9D) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
04-09-2017, 11:08 AM
A short BBC News review, with this graphic:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/6095/production/_95552742_edit_chart_terrorism_wester.png

Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
the terror threat hanging over Europeans today is no greater than the one their parents faced.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371

Bill Moore
04-10-2017, 05:33 AM
A short BBC News review, with this graphic:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/6095/production/_95552742_edit_chart_terrorism_wester.png

Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371

True if the numbers tell the whole story, but the communists, Algerian freedom fighters, and Palestinian liberation groups conducted terrorism as a form of communication. They did not seek to wipe out Europeans, they sought to either reduce their support for Israel, liberate Algeria (or Ireland), or sway Europe's political leanings to the left. The character of the new threat is different in purpose, and they do seem constrained by their political ends like the other groups. The USSR would only let their proxy groups go so far, while others were self-constrained because it would be counter productive not to be.

ISIS, AQ, and others along these lines are unlikely to be self-constrained from killing as many Europeans as possible. Furthermore, they are not always in isolated cells directed by a higher centralized authority, the advent of self-radicalization makes the threat more unpredictable. Still the biggest today to Europe today seems to be over reacting, and a rapid and illogical shift to the far right politically.

davidbfpo
04-21-2017, 05:30 PM
Hat tip to WoTR for this article 'Lone actors -v- remote controlled jihadi terrorism rethinking the threat to the West' by Professor Mullins, an Australian and currently in Germany. The purpose is well explained in this sentence:
It is therefore important to re-examine the concept of lone-actor terrorism and to try and appreciate where it fits within the overall spectrum of jihadist terrorist activity in the West.
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/lone-actor-vs-remote-controlled-jihadi-terrorism-rethinking-the-threat-to-the-west/

This graphic is very useful, especially when the author points out that the numbers in brackets refer to number of fatalities vs number of attacks.
https://2k8r3p1401as2e1q7k14dguu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Jihadist-attacks-inWest-768x459.jpg

He ends with:
The threat to the West is real and we cannot afford to let down our guard, but our adversaries’ intent is far greater than their capabilities. Moreover, this is an indicator of largely successful counter-terrorism. Members of the general public and policymakers alike should understand and appreciate this.

davidbfpo
04-21-2017, 05:38 PM
A previously unheard of report by an unknown group, that was published online in October 2016; they are a Central European security group, headquartered @ Bratislava, Slovakia under the title Globsec Policy Institute.
Link to the 34 pg. report:http://www.cepolicy.org/publications/globsec-intelligence-reform-initiative-reforming-transatlantic-counter-terrorism

It is a broad brush review by "wise old heads", Michael Chertoff being the American aboard and in places quite revealing.

I am just not convinced the solutions are really fit for purpose, if only as the jihadist's focus so far is not on the smaller European nations; nor that what the USA has done structurally is acceptable.

davidbfpo
06-15-2017, 02:17 PM
'Fear Thy Neighbour' is a lengthy report from ISPI, George Washington's Program on Extremism and the ICTI in The Hague and summarized in a BBC News item.

What did the research seek to answer? One author in the BBC item explains:
Although the vast majority of Islamist attacks are elsewhere in the world (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-30080914), an unprecedented number in Europe and North America - more than 50 in total - have put the authorities under great pressure to prevent further deaths. What do we know of the individuals who carried out the attacks - their life in the West, whether they were known to the authorities and with whom they were working?
The first look at the data behind the attacks (http://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/fear-thy-neighbor-radicalization-and-jihadist-attacks-west-16960) - everything from the age of the perpetrators, to immigration status - offers counter-terrorism officials, and the public, an insight that could help them identify the best responses
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40000952

The full report, 108 pgs, has yet to be read and is available via:http://www.ispionline.it/it/EBook/Rapporto_RADICALIZZAZIONE_JIHADISMO/Radicalization_web_DEF.pdf

Azor
06-15-2017, 07:52 PM
'Fear Thy Neighbour' is a lengthy report from ISPI, George Washington's Program on Extremism and the ICTI in The Hague and summarized in a BBC News item.

What did the research seek to answer? One author in the BBC item explains:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40000952

The full report, 108 pgs, has yet to be read and is available via:http://www.ispionline.it/it/EBook/Rapporto_RADICALIZZAZIONE_JIHADISMO/Radicalization_web_DEF.pdf

Jihadist? But that would imply a Muslim affiliation, whereas these attacks were clearly orchestrated by irreligious, non-aligned and non-ideological "extremists"...

davidbfpo
07-20-2017, 01:00 PM
A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:
From 1970 to 2016: 5,215 people died from bombings. 2,463 from assassinations. 2,270 from assaults. 957 from hostage situations. 183 from hijackings. 88 from building attacks. Thousands wounded or missing.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/

Azor
07-20-2017, 06:41 PM
A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/

All in an effort to portray the spate from the 1990s-on as "normal"...

davidbfpo
02-17-2018, 11:50 AM
A lengthy comment on European relations on the 'southern front line', alas only about Morocco and Tunisia.
Link:http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/the_southern_front_line_eu_counter_terrorism_coope ration

The second is shorter by Peter Meumnann, of ICSR @ Kings College, has a broader remit 'ICSR Insight – ISIS And Terrorism In Europe: What Next?'.
Link:http://icsr.info/2018/02/icsr-insight-isis-terrorism-europe-next/

davidbfpo
02-25-2018, 07:35 PM
A PhD thesis available for free: 'Right-Wing Terrorism and Violence in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis' and the Abstract says:
Using new and unique events data, this thesis examines the evolution of right-wing terrorism and violence in post-WWII Western Europe. Notably, the thesis shows that that the number of deadly events has declined in Western Europe under conditions commonly assumed to stimulate right-wing violence, such as increased immigration and growing support for radical right parties. It also shows that some countries have experienced considerably more right-wing violence than others between 1990 and 2015. To explain this variation, the thesis identifies two explanatory models. In Northern Europe, right-wing violence has been most extensive in countries characterized by high immigration combined with low support for anti-immigration parties and public repression of radical right actors and opinions. In Southern Europe, right-wing violence has been most extensive in countries characterized by authoritarian legacies combined with socio-economic hardship and extensive left-wing terrorism. Finally, the thesis offers an in-depth study of the Nordic countries aimed at explaining why right-wing terrorism and militancy have been more widespread in Sweden than in Denmark, Finland, and Norway.Link:https://www.duo.uio.no/handle/10852/60365 or http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-63024

AdamG
09-28-2018, 06:50 AM
No pre-existing thread for the following, so this opening tale of recidivist ISIS miscreants.


Police in the Netherlands have arrested seven men over an alleged plot to carry out what they describe as a major terrorist attack involving guns and explosives.

Police say the men were trying to source AK47s, hand grenades and bomb materials to carry out their attack.

The men, aged between 21 and 34, were arrested on Thursday.

Three had been arrested previously for trying to travel abroad to join foreign militants.

Prosecutors say the man at the centre of the group is a 34-year-old of Iraqi origin, who was convicted in 2017 for trying to travel to fight for the Islamic State group.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45673221

davidbfpo
10-08-2018, 08:00 AM
A WSJ commentary by Thomas Hegghammer, a Norwegian SME on CT; it may be behind a registration wall. He ends with:
This hardening of European attitudes toward terrorism didn’t happen overnight. It’s part of a longer trend that began after 9/11 and accelerated starting in 2012, when European foreign fighters started going to Syria in large numbers. We should not exaggerate its repressive character. Torture and other egregious practices aren’t on the table, and the hard measures have been accompanied by many soft programs to prevent and mitigate violent extremism. The hardening is also uneven, with France adopting a tougher approach than countries like Sweden. Still, the changes are substantial and amount to a paradigm shift in European counterterrorism. It’s still early, but the new approach appears to be working. There are fewer European jihadists fighting on foreign battlefields. Domestic attacks and casualties are substantially down in 2018—not because plotting has decreased, but because authorities are foiling more attempts. For the longer term, the main challenge will be preventing militants who come out of prison from regrouping.
Europe’s struggle with jihadism is far from over. The new, more muscular approach poses serious questions about civil liberties, minority rights and radicalization in prisons. But Europe can no longer be described as soft on terrorism.
Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-to-terrorists-its-no-more-monsieur-nice-guy-1538950931

Bill Moore
10-20-2018, 05:47 PM
A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/jeremy-corbyn-terrorist-threat/


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The intense public discussion on anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party has almost entirely overshadowed the problem of the huge risk a Corbyn-led government would represent to the Western world. Corbyn, a terrorist sympathizer, and various problematic associates of his would gain access to intelligence gathered by the British security services. How safe would it then be for other Western countries to continue to share high-level intelligence with their British colleagues?

A Jewish Think Tank focused on informing Israeli leaders, so clearly bias may be a factor in this analysis. Furthermore, a long history of bad blood between Israel and UK. Nonetheless, like to hear what our friends from the UK think? Complete BS? Half truths?

davidbfpo
10-28-2018, 09:47 PM
I have now read the article cited twice, whilst I understand his arguments he is clearly not a UK voter.

The furore over 'anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party' was largely an internal matter in the Labour Movement, with very little agreement and a "fudge" at the end. Before Jeremy Corbyn became the Labour Party leader the internal pro-Israeli lobby dominated; now their opponents are a significant minority and believe there is a substantial part of the electorate who support them. Those who do not support the Leader are either quiet or plan to leave. Others naively think the Leader will change "his spots" when Labour wins a General Election.

Foreign policy, with the exception of Brexit, is not an electoral priority and for this Labour Party winning the election comes first.

Yes many opponents of Jeremy C. have referred to his past support for terrorists and other "far left" causes. This "mud-slugging" has had little effect on the electorate so far. The details of intelligence sharing have been mentioned by a few. Jeremy's appeal is to a sizeable part of the electorate, a good number of whom think he is "new" and is actually a socialist - which the Labour Party wasn't. Polling suggests outside London and a few cities Jeremy's appeal is very limited, especially when so many 'traditional' Labour voters supported Brexit - an issue on which he'd prefer not to talk about.

Is Jeremy C. a 'terrorist threat to the Western World' as shared intelligence may no longer be safe. How much "raw" secret intelligence is actually given to senior ministers? It is difficult to see him following current UK national foreign and security policy. A more likely and significant step by Prime Minister Jeremy C. IMHO would be to end the patrolling of the UK's SSBNs. He has been a life-long advocate of nuclear disarmament after all.

Does that make him a 'terrorist threat to the Western World'? No, it does not. The "times are a changing" and he could be elected as Prime Minister. Somehow I doubt he shares the conventional 'establishment' view on the terrorist threat, let alone it's causes. President Trump actions have continued the slide in public support for the USA; I know the US Embassy here states this is not reflected in polling data.

He would be a threat to the usual Anglo-Israeli relationship, but that is not the 'Western World' as much as the author thinks it should be. An anti-Israel stance might actually gain him more votes in the big cities and ensure the non-Labour left work hard to support his election.

Anyway this is a strange question given the indications that President Trump reportedly neglects his communication security and the report he has already given away secret information on an Israeli operation against ISIS (which was subject of a post on a thread awhile back).

Bill Moore
10-30-2018, 07:13 AM
True about President Trump not following communications security procedures, and neither did Secretary of State Clinton when she was Secretary. Her e-mail scandal was part of the equation that tipped the scales in favor of Trump. Two bad candidates for the office in my opinion, but we'll survive it. I was hoping you would tell me the article was complete rubbish, but instead it sounds like a bunch of half-truths, so a good propaganda piece. If Jeremy Corbyn wins we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

I'm half way through the book LikeWar by Singer and Brooking, and it provides a very detailed description of Russia's interference in our election, thought the Corbyn piece may more of the same. Unfortunately, the tactics of disinformation on social media are out of the bag and a lot of actors will be employing them. The truth will continued to be buried in a pile of deceit.

davidbfpo
11-18-2018, 08:52 PM
A three part series of articles on the response to the prospect and reality of returning ISIS fighters, plus dependents, to Belgium, France and the UK by Eleanor Beevor (now at IISS, London).

She starts with Belgium:
It’s strange to think that at one point, Belgian authorities were actually happy to see (http://www.egmontinstitute.be/content/uploads/2018/02/egmont.papers.101_online_v1-3.pdf?type=pdf) a large number of young people abandon their European homeland for the battlefields of Syria. This was back in 2012, and many of those leaving had been irritants to Belgian police for their petty crime and anti-social behaviour. Their departure actually led to a drop in the crime rate. But soon, Belgium’s security forces realised that their loss of one problem would soon be replaced with a much greater one. Those young wannabe jihadists were far from guaranteed to stay in Syria. And fears began to proliferate of what they might do on Belgian soil when they returned.
Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-belgium-living-its-isis-returnees-part-i-1166898

Then the French report starts with:
In 2016, a highly controversial book was published featuring a series of interviews with the then-French President Francois Hollande. Hollande, a man of the Socialist left-wing party, let loose a number of unexpected soundbites (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/12/france-has-problem-with-islam-and-there-is-too-much-unwanted-imm/).


But one that was met with particular shock abroad was his blunt admission that French intelligence services had “…a list of people who are believed to be responsible for hostage takings or acts against our interests”. If security forces located those individuals, he said, they had his permission to “…take revenge measures”. Those on the list were French citizens who had left to join ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-france-living-its-isis-returnees-part-ii-1167306

Finally to the UK, she starts with:
The words “The Beatles” have been splashed across the UK’s headlines for the past few days. But it is for a discomforting reason that has nothing to do with the British music legends.

The Beatles in question were a four-man group of young British men who travelled to Syria to join ISIS. And while 800 UK citizens left to join the terrorist group, none of the others received anything like the attention that this quartet did.
Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-britain-living-its-isis-returnees-part-iii-1167690

AdamG
12-12-2018, 02:24 PM
Strasbourg, France (CNN)A massive hunt is underway for a gunman who opened fire near a popular Christmas market in the center of the French city of Strasbourg Tuesday, killing three people and injuring 13 others.

More than 350 police gendarmes and soldiers supported by air units have been mobilized to find the suspect, who was already known to security services as a possible threat, police said.
Speaking to French radio station Inter on Wednesday, the county's Deputy Interior Minister, Laurent Nunez, said that authorities could not confirm that the suspect has "terrorist motivations."

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/11/europe/gunshots-strasbourg-france-intl/index.html


France says it cannot "rule out" that a suspected terrorist has fled to neighbouring Germany after killing at least two people and injuring 13 in the eastern French city of Strasbourg.

Border controls have been strengthened and more than 600 people, including police, troops and helicopters were on the heels of the attacker who had "sowed terror" in the city, interior minister Christophe Castaner said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/12/strasbourg-shooting-christmas-market-terror-suspect-run-killing/

davidbfpo
12-12-2018, 07:21 PM
A two-part Q&A with Norwegian SME Peter Nesser, who makes an important point at the start:
We need to include the foiled attacks to gain a better understanding of the threat. If we only look at launched attacks, we risk being unprepared to face tomorrow’s threat.
(Later) If we take a look at the foiled plots in 2018 alone, there is no doubt that IS supporters have had ambitions to carry out large-scale attacks in Europe.
Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conversation-with-petter-nesser-part-1/

In part two:
I expect the threat in the near future to continue along the same lines, but with more stealth and new uses of technology.(On returning foreign fighters) Only a minority among those who return will probably take part in international terrorism in the future, but those who do can be capable of doing a lot of damage.
Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conversation-with-petter-nesser-on-foiled-terrorist-plots-part-2/

davidbfpo
12-13-2018, 06:48 PM
Peter Nesser has an article, giving an overview of European terrorism and it features a chart, which defies copying.
Link:https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-hasnt-won-the-war-on-terror/

davidbfpo
12-15-2018, 01:03 PM
Via Twitter, citing a newspaper report with no English version:
At least 8 informants of police agencies or domestic intelligence met w/, saw or observed #Berlin (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Berlin?src=hash) Christmas Market attacker Anis #Amri (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Amri?src=hash) according to our investigation. Only one of them seems to have reported back fully and honestly.
Link to Twitter:https://twitter.com/abususu/status/1073542216184942594 and the original report:https://www.zeit.de/2018/52/anschlag-breitscheidplatz-weihnachtsmarkt-anis-amri-berlin-offene-fragen

I have always been puzzled how Italy has largely avoided Jihadist attacks this might help to explain:
In the past years, expulsions on the grounds of extremism have acquired a key role in the Italian strategy to counter the jihadist threat.1 (https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/measure-expulsions-extremism-21804#nota) 2015 in particular, marked an important change in the use of this tool.....the number of expulsions has grown significantly in the past 4 years. 66 deportations were made both in 2015 and 2016. In 2017 the number rose to 105 and grew again in 2018: on November 26 of this year, Italian authorities had carried out 112 expulsions.
Nice chart too, too big to show here:https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/measure-expulsions-extremism-21804

Finally Lorenzo Vidrino, a SME, now in Washington DC, has an overview review of CT in Europe.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-46557305

davidbfpo
12-19-2018, 07:54 PM
As the Strasbourg killer illustrated Europe has a problem with antique firearms, his revolver was over a hundred years old.

Then I found via Twitter an EU-funded research project, Project Safte on Firearms and Terrorism in Europe. There is a free book, Triggering Terror: Illicit Gun Markets and Firearms Acquisition of Terrorist Networks in Europe, with individual chapters on several European nations.
Link:https://www.flemishpeaceinstitute.eu/safte/publications

In the French chapter on pgs 42-44 there is a Table 6 'Firearms seized in recent attacks inspired by radical Islamist'.
Link:https://www.flemishpeaceinstitute.eu/sites/vlaamsvredesinstituut.eu/files/wysiwyg/project_safte_france.pdfilogies

davidbfpo
12-19-2018, 07:55 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DuxRILvWsAA6Biv.jpg:large

davidbfpo
01-15-2019, 05:41 PM
Via Twitter from Belgium somewhat startling until explained:
We’ve got interesting figures from the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis in in Belgium (OCAD/OCAM). Of the 100 foreign terrorist fighters (FTF) back on Belgian soil, 75% of males and 90% of females aren’t considered as a serious terrorist threat anymore. On a total of 422 fully identified Belgian FTFs, 130 have left the war. 10 have died subsequently (mostly by committing attacks), and 20 are detained in other countries. Of those back in Belgium, 40 are imprisoned (of whom only 2 women) and of those free, 60% are male.

Most of the FTF who have returned in Belgium, did so early on - i.e. prior to the June 2014 declaration of the caliphate by Islamic State. So their degree of disengagement might not be representative for FTFs eventually returning now.

OCAD/OCAM doesn’t expect a massive return of Belgian FTF anymore. Of the 292 who didn’t come back, 141 were reportedly killed. But in reality, that figure is thought to be significantly higher by now.

In terms of terrorist threat, home grown terrorist fighters are considered a much more important problem in Belgium nowadays than FTFs who have returned. About 50 of these FTF are listed as a possible terrorist threat by OCAD/OCAM, and only 2/3 is currently behind bars.



Having not heard of this body here is their website, in English; which does not show such a report:http://www.comiteri.be/index.php/en/39-pages-gb/306-what-is-the-coordination-unit-for-threat-assessment