View Full Version : IARPA Study - Call for Participants

Forecasting World Events
03-04-2011, 09:29 PM
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**Approved for Public Release**

Call for Research Participants
Forecasting World Events Project

Are you interested in global security and politics, business and economics,
public health, science and technology, or social and cultural change? If so,
we invite you to participate in a unique, online research study sponsored by
the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The
Forecasting World Events Project is part of a federally funded research
program investigating the accuracy of individual and group predictions about
global events and trends, leading to fundamental advances in the science of
forecasting. To support this research, the Project seeks to build a diverse
panel of forecasters with interests in any of the above domains. As a
participant, you will offer predictions about the questions that interest
you most, update those forecasts as often as you like, and interact with
your fellow forecasters via optional discussion boards.

Who can participate?
Any U.S. citizen 18 years or older may register to participate. People of
all backgrounds are welcome to register; advanced degree-holders and
graduate students are particularly encouraged to participate.

When does it start?
Invited participants will begin making predictions in late spring 2011.

What are the questions like?
We will provide all of the forecasting questions, which will cover a range
of global events and will typically ask you to indicate the likelihood of
something happening (e.g., a candidate winning an election), a future amount
or level of something (e.g., level of unemployment), or the date of an event
(e.g., the month and year of a company's next product release).

Is there a heavy time commitment?
Absolutely not. If selected to join the study, you will decide how often you
visit the forecasting website, the number of questions you want to answer,
and the frequency with which you update your forecasts. Furthermore, you may
vary your level of involvement over time, completely at your discretion.

How long will the study last?
The Project is scheduled to run from 2011 through 2013. If selected to
participate, you are encouraged to participate throughout this period,
though you may withdraw at any time.

What's the next step?
Registration is now open at www.forecastwe.org. Following notification,
selected participants will begin offering their predictions via an
interactive forecasting website.

Test your insight and advance the science of prediction.

Sponsored by IARPA's ACE Program (www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_ace.html), the
Forecasting World Events Project is managed by The MITRE Corporation, a
not-for-profit manager of Federally Funded Research and Development Centers.

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