PDA

View Full Version : Bin Laden: after Abbottabad (merged thread)



SWJ Blog
05-02-2011, 03:00 AM
Moderator's Note: Clearly this incident will resonate here and I thought it appropriate to have a a thread in this area 'Global Issues & Threats'. Fourteen threads have been merged here to create a collection for Bin Laden items after his demise @ Abbottabad. Renamed the thread too. (Ends).


Osama bin Laden Killed by U.S. Strike (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/osama-bin-laden-killed-by-us-s/)

Entry Excerpt:

Osama bin Laden Killed by U.S. Strike (http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/osama-bin-laden-killed/story?id=13505703) - ABC News

There is a SWC thread on the subject at: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=13211

--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/osama-bin-laden-killed-by-us-s/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

carl
05-02-2011, 04:25 AM
There is a SWJ Blog item too, with the official statement made:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/osama-bin-laden-killed-by-us-s/

Omar:

Do you think the Pak Army/ISI finally decided to give up OBL? If so why?

Dayuhan
05-02-2011, 04:40 AM
Either OBL was given up on purpose by the Pak Army, ISI, or factions thereof, or the US acquired and acted upon intel without their help, which is entirely possible. The official Pakistani reaction will be interesting. I imagine comment from both sides will be sanitized to some extent, likely a large extent... still interesting to see what emerges. It would be tough for the Pakistani government to admit that they passed on information that led to an American operation on Pakistani soil, so I suppose they'll have to pitch it as an independent US operation, whatever the truth of it is.

omarali50
05-02-2011, 05:12 AM
The details will be really really interesting. If initial reports are true, then this was a secure location right next to the military academy. Does that mean they put him there because they thought no one would ever think they would do that? or does it mean they had nothing to do with putting him there? or (most likely?) "they" are split into different camps and the right hand does not know what the left is doing?
This reminds me of a famous battle of wits: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQNHBUqfLnM

Anyway, great news. Good work by a lot of people must have been involved. Well done.

Dayuhan
05-02-2011, 05:15 AM
I can't see how we would have shared the details of our intel and decision to execute on a target of this significance, despite what is coming across the MSM regarding assistance from the Pakis.

How can they refute the spin through?

I also doubt that we'd share the intel, though assistance from the Pakis (or at least someone within their organizations) may (or may not) have been the source of the intel in the first place.

There's certainly a fair bit that won't be told, at least initially; still it will be interesting to see who says what, and what the reaction is on the streets in Pakistan.

jcustis
05-02-2011, 05:25 AM
It will make for a great book, but the movie will be hosed up by Hollywood.

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 08:07 AM
Clearly this incident will resonate here and I thought it appropriate to have a a thread in this area 'Global Issues & Threats'. In a moment I will move some of the very recent posts to here and add a note to current threads for posts on the issue to be placed here.

carl
05-02-2011, 08:31 AM
This is wonderful emotionally satisfying news and salutes to all involved in pulling it off, but I am going to make a very dark comment that I hope isn't true. Why did the Pak Army/ISI give up OBL now after all these years? We have never had the nerve to creditably threaten them or even strongly condemn them in the past. What changed? What I hope to hell didn't happen was we made a deal, they give us AQ and we give them Afghanistan.

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 08:39 AM
The BBC's comment on the raid:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13257330


Details are emerging of how al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was found and killed at a fortified compound on the outskirts of Abbottabad in north-west Pakistan...It is just 800 yards from the Pakistan Military Academy, an elite military training centre, which correspondents say is Pakistan's equivalent to Britain's Sandhurst military training academy...The compound lies within Abbottabad's military cantonment - it is likely the area would have had a constant and significant military presence and checkpoints.

(Later)BBC correspondents say US troops were probably operating out of a base used by US Marines in Tarbela Ghazi, an area close to Abbottabad.

Michael Scheueur was interviewed and stated US intelligence was assisted by the UK and Canada.

Dayuhan
05-02-2011, 08:41 AM
This is wonderful emotionally satisfying news and salutes to all involved in pulling it off, but I am going to make a very dark comment that I hope isn't true. Why did the Pak Army/ISI give up OBL now after all these years? We have never had the nerve to creditably threaten them or even strongly condemn them in the past. What changed? What I hope to hell didn't happen was we made a deal, they give us AQ and we give them Afghanistan.

We don't know that OBL was given up by the Pak Army/ISI, and I'm not prepared to assume that he was. It's entirely possible that the US did it on their own.

<edit>

Also possible that individuals within Pak Army/ISI provided intel on their own, for their own purposes, without institutional intent.

It does leave the Pak Army in a somewhat embarrassing place, considering that he was hiding out literally in their backyard. Will be interesting to see what they have to say on that.

Dayuhan
05-02-2011, 08:53 AM
What I hope to hell didn't happen was we made a deal, they give us AQ and we give them Afghanistan.

Would that really be such a bad deal? Not like we really want Afghanistan... in fact, short of HIV or rabies I can think of few things I'd want less. Without AQ, what reason have we to be there anyway?

Not that I have any reason to suppose such a deal was made, or that removing OBL will eliminate AQ, but if we really had the option of making a deal where we get out of Afghanistan in return for AQ's exclusion from Afghanistan and Pakistan, it might not be such a bad thing, assuming the other side of the deal could and would deliver (big assumption).

Fuchs
05-02-2011, 09:21 AM
This is a great opportunity to declare victory and get out of the mess.

SWJ Blog
05-02-2011, 09:50 AM
Bin Laden News Roundup (Update in Progress) (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/bin-laden-news-roundup-update/)

Entry Excerpt:

Al Qaeda

Obama Announces Death of Osama bin Laden (http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Reports-Osama-Bin-Laden-is-Dead-121065589.html) - Voice of America
Bin Laden is Dead (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/asia/osama-bin-laden-is-killed.html?hp) - New York Times
Bin Laden Killed, 'Justice Has Been Done' (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/osama-bin-laden-is-killed-by-us-forces-in-pakistan/2011/05/01/AFXMZyVF_story.html) - Washington Post
U.S. Forces Kill Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13256676) - BBC News
Osama Bin Laden Killed in Shootout, Obama Says (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/01/world/international-us-binladen.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Officials Provide Details on bin Laden Operation (http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Officials-Provide-Details-on-Bin-Laden-Operation-121072634.html) - Voice of America
Body Buried at Sea After Raid in Pakistan (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/asia/osama-bin-laden-is-killed.html?hp) - New York Times
Detective Work on Courier Led to Breakthrough (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/asia/02reconstruct-capture-osama-bin-laden.html?hp) - New York Times
Bin Laden Was Found at Luxury Pakistan Compound (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/international-us-binladen-compound.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Perhaps Largest Manhunt in U.S. History (http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Osama-Bin-Laden-Was-Target-of-Perhaps-Largest-Manhunt-in-US-History-121071569.html) - Voice of America
Senior Official in Pakistan's ISI Confirms Bin Laden Killed (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/asia/news-us-pakistan-binladen.html?ref=world) - Reuters
The Most Wanted Face of Terrorism (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/02osama-bin-laden-obituary.html?hp) - New York Times
Death of Bin Laden Not Mean Demise of Al Qaeda (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/03/world/asia/03terror.html) - New York Times
Egypt's Al-Zawahri Likely to Succeed Bin Laden (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/05/02/world/middleeast/AP-ML-Bin-Ladens-Successor.html?ref=world) - Associated Press
Al Qaeda No.2 Zawahri Most Likely to Succeed Bin Laden (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/international-us-zawahri-ayman-newsmaker.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Islamists: Bin Laden Death Will Not Mute Jihad Call (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/international-us-binladen-militants.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Amid Cheers, a Message: ‘They Will Be Caught’ (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/nyregion/amid-cheers-a-message-they-will-be-caught.html?hp) - New York Times
Afghans Fear West May See Death as the End (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/03/world/asia/03afghanistan.html?hp) - New York Times
Afghan Leader: Bin Laden Strike Is Blow to Terror (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/05/02/world/asia/AP-AS-Afghan-Bin-Laden.html?ref=world) - Associated Press
Afghan Leader Tells Taliban Not to Fight After Bin Laden's Death (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/asia/international-us-afghanistan-karzai.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Joy Erupts on U.S. Streets With Killing of Bin Laden (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/international-us-binladen-celebration.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Bin Laden's Death Draws Cheers, Relief, Dismay (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/05/02/world/asia/AP-AS-Bin-Laden-World-View.html?ref=world) - Associated Press
Israel: Bin Laden Killing Triumph for Democracies (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/middleeast/international-us-binladen-israel-netanyahu.html?ref=world) - Reuters
India Hails Bin Laden Death, More Needed to Fight Terrorism (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/asia/international-us-bindladen-india.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Vatican Says Bin Laden Will Have to Answer to God (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/europe/news-us-binladen-vatican.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Muslim Brotherhood: U.S. Should Now Quit Iraq, Afghanistan (http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/05/02/world/international-us-binladen-brotherhood.html?ref=world) - Reuters
Bin Laden's Death: Reaction in Quotes (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13256956) - BBC News
Obama’s Remarks on Bin Laden’s Killing (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/middleeast/02obama-text.html) - New York Times transcript
After Osama bin Laden... (http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/after-osama-bin-laden/?ref=world) - New York Times opinion



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/bin-laden-news-roundup-update/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

LawVol
05-02-2011, 10:06 AM
While I do not believe that this makes any difference regarding the threat of AQ (real or imagined), I do agree with Fuchs that this provides a political opportunity to declare victory and go home. Once again, we can abandon Afghanistan if we so choose.

Kiwigrunt
05-02-2011, 10:34 AM
They catch the number one dude on the most wanted list for ten years and then proceed to dump the cadaver in the ocean? I’m not one for conspiracy theories but this is IMO a bit odd.

Fuchs
05-02-2011, 10:40 AM
It seems to minimise backlash by those who count, though.

CWOT
05-02-2011, 11:07 AM
I asked these questions here on Small Wars in January. I think they are particularly relevant today, so interested to hear people's thoughts: (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=12228)



Here is a survey I posted and had some good participation on it, mostly from academics. I throw it up here as I'd like to get the perspective of those that have been deployed to AFG/IZ and other CT assignments. Here are the three questions I posted and would enjoy any and all thoughts on this topic.

Here's the poll:

Overall theme of the poll:
If Usama Bin Laden were killed in 2011, would it matter to the global jihadi movement?

Question #1:

What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s death to the global jihadi movement? (Only pick One!)

-Status Quo- No substantial change in AQ activity
-AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies decrease substantially
-AQAP becomes new AQ Central
-Some other AQ member in AF/PAK becomes leader of AQ Central
-AQ Central loses its chief sponsor, the Haqqani network
-AQ fundraising increases substantially
-AQ fundraising diminishes substantially
-Taliban more reluctant to make peace with Karzai
-AQ-inspired recruitment slows substantially
-AQ-inspired recruitment accelerates substantially
-AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies increase substantially
-Taliban pursue a peace settlement with Karzai
-AQ Central shifts focus to pursue guerilla warfare in Central Asia


Question #2:

What will be the chief consequence of UBL’s death for the U.S. and its Western allies? (Only pick One!)

Public pressure forces early withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.
Public pressure forces a refocus on counterterrorism operations (Biden Plan).
Status Quo- No substantial change in U.S. and Western operations.


Question #3:

Would UBL’s death result in more or less AQ-inspired attacks over the next five years? (2011- 2016) (Only pick One!)

-More
-Less
-No Change in the pace of attacks.


Thanks,

Clint
www.selectedwisdom.com

flagg
05-02-2011, 11:12 AM
So I'm having a look at the Google map for the location of where OBL was zapped in relation to local points of interest.

Pakistan Military Academy
Combined Military Hospital
Pakistan Military Training Grounds
Military housing and other military facilities all over the place

Admittedly I haven't read enough John Le Carre novels to come close to the understanding the complex intrigue and craziness that is Pakistan and it's internal/external political/military/intelligence soap opera.

But I keep going back to the same altered history anology:

Imagine it's 1955, and the Russians just found Hitler living in a somewhat larger than average Levittown house in West Point, New York living amongst a whole bunch of current and prior service soldiers.

How is it even POSSIBLE, or more importantly, SPINNABLE?

Pakistani intrigue is too thick and murky for me to even guess as to their involvement.....but if I had to guess: Pakistan "boots on the ground" would be OBL's Tuesday Poker Night and Kosher BBQ buddies, and "advance notice" was +/- 30 seconds to entry...Pakistani ISI media ops must be working late nights spinning this mess.

For once, it would be nice to hear something resembling the truth as to Pakistani culpability in the harboring/management of OBL.

How is this anything other than the US having "pants" Pakistan in front of the entire planet?

If it was a truly coordinated raid in partnership with Pakistan at some ludicrous price, how will that work when the truth, or some semblance of it, comes out?

How does pretending Pakistan doesn't have access/influence/control over OBL and being strung along by the Pakistanis for years play to the public if/when they find out?

Isn't pandering to Pakistan, who is holding OBL hostage to us, in order to avoid logistical/supply disruptions in a mission that originally focused on finding-fixing-finishing OBL/AQ a bit like an Excel circular reference error?

I am only an interested amateur.....but I'm thinking it's a perfect excuse for the current administration might capitalize on to not only exit stage left(and gain in the polls for 2012).....but to possibly shift allegiance and support more quickly/strongly away from Pakistan and towards India.

Probably not adding any value to the conversation, but just wanted to throw it out there.

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 11:25 AM
Clint,

Your survey is now even more topical and will you be able to view the responses seperately: pre-OBL death and post-OBL death?

General comments

KoW have a good commentary and commend the evolving Wikipedia story too, respectively: http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2011/05/bin-laden-to-kill-a-man-or-kill-an-ideology/ and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden

Tukhachevskii
05-02-2011, 11:56 AM
They catch the number one dude on the most wanted list for ten years and then proceed to dump the cadaver in the ocean? I’m not one for conspiracy theories but this is IMO a bit odd.

Struck me as odd too KG. Islamic law forbids burial at sea in all but the most extreme circumstances; i.e., death at sea during naval combat and even then the utmost is done to retreive the body to bury it on land. That'll be likely to offend "certain types" more than OBL's "martydrom" (which is what they all want anyway so won't act as a deterrent as much as the knowledge that they can be killed, captured or destroyed no matter where they hide).

Interestingly, I was channel hopping to see what different news media channels made of the effort and the Pakistani ARY stated that OBL was found with the assistance of local police (BS if ever I heard it) whilst India's Star News had no qualms about showing OBL's dead face whilst "bigging up" the US SEALS! OTOH Iran has said that now he's dead the US doesn't need to be in Afghanistan. Here, here (not that I'd normally agree with the Iranians). Let's get the hell out (now that we've been given an out).

Congrats to all involved though. Job Done.

SWJ Blog
05-02-2011, 01:11 PM
A really bad day for bin Laden – and for Pakistan (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/a-really-bad-day-for-bin-laden/)

Entry Excerpt:

The killing of Osama bin Laden is a satisfying triumph for Americans and the U.S. government. It would have been even more satisfying had it occurred in the weeks and months after the September 2001 attacks. But the fact that it took a decade to finally kill bin Laden should be warning to any who doubt the long memories and persistence of the U.S. government’s counterterrorism forces. They didn’t forget and they never stopped working on the problem.

The Joint Special Operations Command, presumably the command responsible for the mission, should get credit for demonstrating its ability to successfully raid targets virtually anywhere in the world. The CIA also gets credit for patiently developing the required intelligence and for reminding everyone of the value of battlefield captures, interrogations, and human intelligence.

Finally, President Barack Obama deserves great credit for taking the risk of ordering this raid. He likely knew that the past record of such high-visibility raids was not good and that much more can go wrong with these operations than go right. He must also have known that another Desert One fiasco could have been disastrous on several levels.

Most notable was Obama’s willingness to shatter America’s relationship with Pakistan in order to take a gamble on getting bin Laden. For this raid is a black day for Pakistan and its relationship with the United States. As the White House background briefing (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/osama-bin-laden-killed-by-us-s/)on the raid makes clear, the United States kept the raid completely concealed from the Pakistani government. Combine this with the fact that bin Laden was found in a highly protected compound in a wealthy town near Pakistan’s capital, and a stone’s throw from a Pakistani military academy. Americans will be right to conclude that Pakistan was bin Laden’s long-time friend and not America’s. What little support Pakistan still enjoys in Washington will now likely melt away. Pakistan will have to look to China, its last friend, for the support it will need to survive.

Although the struggle against terrorism will go on, the death of bin Laden will bring a sense of finality for most in the American electorate. Combine that with more evidence of Pakistan’s duplicity, the evident breakdown in relations between the United States and Pakistan, and what will likely be the most bloody year for U.S. soldiers fighting in Afghanistan. The result could be a final collapse of public support for the war in Afghanistan. That probably won’t bother President Obama too much and will bolster his argument to accelerate the U.S. withdrawal from that war later this year.

Nothing follows



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/a-really-bad-day-for-bin-laden/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

Steve Blair
05-02-2011, 01:35 PM
They catch the number one dude on the most wanted list for ten years and then proceed to dump the cadaver in the ocean? I’m not one for conspiracy theories but this is IMO a bit odd.

Not really.... I suspect there was some worry about having him buried on land, thus creating a pilgrimage site of sorts for some people.

Bob's World
05-02-2011, 02:15 PM
Thank God we avoided the strategic disaster of running last night's op as a capture operation.

I recall an old Son Tay raider sharing his experience with my Q-Course class, on coming face to face with an NVA soldier:

"He held up both hands in front of him, and I thought he was asking for Ammo, so I gave him 20 rounds."

Again, thankfully the occupants of this compound needed ammo as well.

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 02:43 PM
Robert Haddick has a commentary 'A really bad day for bin Laden – and for Pakistan' on:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/a-really-bad-day-for-bin-laden/

SWJ Blog has a press collection on:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/bin-laden-news-roundup-update/

JMA
05-02-2011, 03:04 PM
They got OBL
No collateral damage of civilians in surrounding areas
No casualties

Mission accomplished.

Superb special forces work Americans can justifiably be proud of.

carl
05-02-2011, 03:04 PM
We don't know that OBL was given up by the Pak Army/ISI, and I'm not prepared to assume that he was. It's entirely possible that the US did it on their own.

The place where he was killed is over 100 miles from the Pak/Afghan border if I read my National Geographic computer map correctly. The Pakistan Air Force noticed what was going on and did nothing. In my opinion, completely inexpert, it is not possible we did it on our own.

I also think this is the prelude to bugging out on Afghanistan and the Afghans. I know people don't like the phrase "bug out" for its' emotional and moral connotation and I hope it doesn't happen. Time will tell. But I use the phrase intentionally and expect very strong reaction to it; regardless, that is what it would be if it happens. Things may, probably, will be worse for the poor Afghans than anytime in modern history. I hope not but fear so.

Steve Blair
05-02-2011, 03:07 PM
Thank God we avoided the strategic disaster of running last night's op as a capture operation.

Quite. One of my concerns with the law enforcement spin that has been put on so many military operations is that someone would want to "arrest" OBL and bring him back in cuffs (stuff him in the back seat of a squad car for good measure, perhaps) and kick off the whole OJ trial syndrome. We're already seeing enough of this in other areas.

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 03:09 PM
Scrolling through a variety of news reports I am not convinced much of the reporting and commentary is well-based.

In support I cite Rob Baer on the BBC's Live column stated:
Former CIA field officer Bob Baer tells the BBC World Service the intelligence sources that led to the operation are unlikely to be revealed. 'Intelligence agencies and the military will simply put out disinformation to protect the real sources, which could have been anything from intercepts to the Pakistani government itself'.

For good, political reasons the USA will congratulate itself and I do not diminish the respect due to those who undertook the mission.

As regards OBL's death I expect Muslim opinion will focus upon until satisfactory proof is provided - notably a photo - and the DNA statement (just) helps. I am happy to await any such footage.

The manner of his burial is potentially controversial, again until fully explained soon IMHO.

I would speculate that OBL's body was removed and buried at sea following a plan when KSA reportedly refused permission for it's return.

All that aside Ahmed Rashid is worth reading:
The killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden is a huge blow to the organisation but as guest columnist Ahmed Rashid reports, its decentralised nature means it has the potential to carry out attacks on any number of targets.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13257441

omarali50
05-02-2011, 03:16 PM
cross-posting from the SWJ blog.
I think its a good day for Pakistan too, but in a "long-term" kind of way.
comments on our blog are at http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/05/02/a-really-bad-day-for-bin-ladin-and-for-pakistan/#comment-7642 (this link completes the circle, since i linked SWJ there).
One of our bloggers has a post saying the Pakistani commandos were much more heavily involved than advertised (http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/05/02/the-osama-card-has-been-played/#more-2139). I find that plausible. But it seems that in their public pronouncements they have chosen the humiliation of this being a US operation over the dangers of being seen as loyal partners of the infidels? Or is that just more smoke and mirrors?
Whatever the details (and amateurs like me will probably never know), the bottom line is that the Pakistani establishnment will have to gradually get rid of all their old jihadi friends...not just the "bad" ones. The infidel world won't let them keep the "good jihadis" either.
One possibility is that GHQ knows this, but feels insecure and needs time to work things out with the rank and file. The other is that they don't fully know this yet and will only learn over time and with great reluctance. Either way, the end state will be the same. The Pakistani establishment will have to give up its jihadi proxies...even the "good jihadis"; even the ones who only target Hindoos and are not thought to be a major issue for the big infidels with the big bombs. The reason? the jihadis have the bad habit of not keeping the milk and meat apart very strictly. The good ones keep hobnobbing with the bad ones and even the most sympathetic infidels (the Chinese, Anatol Lieven) are uncomfortable with that aspect of jihadi behavior.....one way or the other (one way being more painful than the other) the deep state will have to pull away from all of them. Though they may or may not know it yet..and may go through years of very gradual backpedaling before they get to the promised land.

Steve Blair
05-02-2011, 03:18 PM
We won't really have a good picture of what happened for some time (if ever), but that has never stopped the talking heads....:wry:

OBL is a good public face, and killing him does do some damage, but as we should remember from our experience with other terrorist groups such operations rarely stop them in their tracks. All one needs to do is look at the longevity of some of the European terror groups (Red Brigades, RAF, various Greek organizations, and so on), along with the various branches and incarnations of the IRA. Or, to draw a more unusual parallel, the U.S. domestic experience. We've had a handful of presidents assassinated, and at least two of them were very charismatic leaders (Lincoln and Kennedy), but that didn't bring the system crashing down (and in the case of Lincoln the potential was certainly there).

No, this is a victory to be sure, but it's not necessarily the end of anything. A change, certainly, and possibly a major blow to at least some parts of AQ.

And the KSA probably made a wise move in rejecting OBL's body (at least from their perspective). Any physical grave would almost immediately become a draw for extremists and those on the fringes of extremism.

Marcellinus
05-02-2011, 03:22 PM
Two things:

1. My Wag-The-Dog sense is going off.

2. The fact that so many (perhaps hyperbole, some at least) here seem to be so excited to have an excuse to declare mission accomplished and get out may give motive to the possible fabrication of the story.

Not saying that I believe that the story is fabricated, but there are far too many facile elements to the story to swallow right now. Unfortunately, the administration decided to do the one thing that would best keep the conspiracies from spiraling by dumping the body in the sea.

Entropy
05-02-2011, 03:22 PM
Personally, I'm interested in the compound.

Who owns the land? Who funded the construction? The answers to those questions could be very problematic for Pakistan.

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 03:23 PM
Punditry, sorry an ICSR Insight:http://icsr.info/blog/ICSR-Insight---Jihadist-Forums-React-to-Osama-bin-Ladens-Death-

Alas the Insight is distracted by other issues, but I am sure a SWC reader will soon decide what has value.

Entropy
05-02-2011, 03:24 PM
2. The fact that so many (perhaps hyperbole, some at least) here seem to be so excited to have an excuse to declare mission accomplished and get out may give motive to the possible fabrication of the story.

Not saying that I believe that the story is fabricated, but there are far too many facile elements to the story to swallow right now. Unfortunately, the administration decided to do the one thing that would best keep the conspiracies from spiraling by dumping the body in the sea.

We won't know the truth until the government releases his long-form death certificate.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Steve Blair
05-02-2011, 03:25 PM
Personally, I'm interested in the compound.

Who owns the land? Who funded the construction? The answers to those questions could be very problematic for Pakistan.

BBC has some initial comments on this here (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13257330). It's all pretty basic, of course, but one source in the BBC piece claims that locals called it the "Waziristan Mansion".

Marcellinus
05-02-2011, 03:29 PM
We won't know the truth until the government releases his long-form death certificate.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

That's ok. I already dropped the same joke three times this morning.:D

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 03:31 PM
Entropy asked
Personally, I'm interested in the compound. Who owns the land? Who funded the construction? The answers to those questions could be very problematic for Pakistan.

There is a possible answer, today, from the BBC's enquiries:
One local resident told the BBC Urdu service that the house had been built by a Pashtun man about 10 or 12 years ago and he said that none of the locals were aware of who was really living there. According to one local journalist, the house was known in the area as Waziristani Haveli - or Waziristan Mansion.

Secondly the compound was within the cantonment area, my understanding is that does not mean owned or controlled, rather it is a descriptive term and implies it is part of the wider military residential area. An area that may have limited access and military monitored exit/entry points.

The same BBC report refers to:
..it lies well within Abbottabad's military cantonment - it is likely the area would have had a constant and significant military presence and checkpoints....This house was in a residential district of Abbottabad's suburbs called Bilal Town and known to be home to a number of retired military officers from the area.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13257330

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 03:46 PM
I searched in vain for a long ago post on fugitives and my view for sometime that OBL was not in a cave, nor a mountain valley in NWFP, but a walled compound in a Pakistani city. A compound that reduces external oversight to the minimum, high walls is one way, but in Pakistan a common design feature when affordable. With covering, vines and awnings to reduce overhead / oblique observation. Yes, never look up. Following the advice of an Australian colleague with no electronic signature too; I notice the one BBC photo shows a satellite dish.

'Hiding in plain sight' is a saying from fugitive hunting and I suppose being near a military garrison supports that.

There are tens of thousands of compounds fitting those criteria across Pakistan's urban areas.

Addition: BBC Live feed has this:
2057: Ebrar from London, writes: "Most of the rich people in Abottabad have high walls and barbed wires around their house. I had land in Abottabad with walls and barbed wire, so no one can jump in and play cricket or use it. Abottabad is a military garrison town, everyone lives near it. Military are everywhere.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

Entropy
05-02-2011, 03:55 PM
That's interesting stuff David, thanks. Hard to believe OBL could exist there for so long without inside assistance of some kind from the Pakistan military or ISI.

Rex Brynen
05-02-2011, 04:12 PM
That's interesting stuff David, thanks. Hard to believe OBL could exist there for so long without inside assistance of some kind from the Pakistan military or ISI.

While I think it is certainly possible that Pakistani Army and/or ISI elements knew where he was, I think it is equally likely that they didn't. UBL seems to have gone to great lengths to limit the possibility of leaks (no landline or internet, controlled access, purpose-built villa with few windows, high walls, use of only a few trusted couriers, etc.) Why compromise all that with the risk that someone in the Army or ISI might get tempted by that $25m reward and provide a tip-off?

I'm not sure that 800m from a military academy is necessarily a more difficult place to hide out than any other urban area.

Entropy
05-02-2011, 04:16 PM
Located the compound in Google Earth:

34°10'9.90"N
73°14'33.94"E

Link to location on Google maps. (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=+34%C2%B010%279.90%22N+73%C2%B014%2733.94%22E&aq=&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=49.089956,103.359375&ie=UTF8&ll=34.169286,73.243055&spn=0.001578,0.003154&t=h&z=19)

This compound is missing from imagery taken in 2001, but is present by 2005 (the most recent GE imagery available).

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 04:19 PM
That's interesting stuff David, thanks. Hard to believe OBL could exist there for so long without inside assistance of some kind from the Pakistan military or ISI.

Entropy,

If no-one knows he is there, what help is needed from 'inside assistance' ?

Without checking with my advisers I would also expect many people who can afford such a compound and have lived in NWFP / FATA have moved out or have a second home. So the appearance of the compound would not have attracted comment.

Discreet occupiers? In Pakistan many follow the rule that discretion decreases vulnerability to preying eyes and actions - common criminals and some of the state's agents working privately. Plus many from those areas are traditionally more socially conservative than other parts of Pakistan.

You also have to consider that a low profile compound could be a Pakistani state agency facility, owned by an ex-state agent and a non-Pakistani occupier. Just a few words and some theatre would keep neighbours away.

Addition: some of my comments are also on this BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13257338

Entropy
05-02-2011, 04:22 PM
While I think it is certainly possible that Pakistani Army and/or ISI elements knew where he was, I think it is equally likely that they didn't. UBL seems to have gone to great lengths to limit the possibility of leaks (no landline or internet, controlled access, purpose-built villa with few windows, high walls, use of only a few trusted couriers, etc.) Why compromise all that with the risk that someone in the Army or ISI might get tempted by that $25m reward and provide a tip-off?

I'm not sure that 800m from a military academy is necessarily a more difficult place to hide out than any other urban area.

Rex,

Points well taken. However, if the BBC is correcting in their report that this location is within the military cantonment zone then that could indicate some inside help. Also, to be clear, there is a big difference between an institutional decision by the Army/ISI to harbor UBL (something I don't think was the case at all) and sympathetic insiders who acted on their own and used their position within those organizations to make this possible. It seems to me that is definitely a possibility.

Entropy
05-02-2011, 04:26 PM
If no-one knows he is there, what help is needed from 'inside assistance' ?

Without checking with my advisers I would also expect many people who can afford such a compound and have lived in NWFP / FATA have moved out or have a second home. So the appearance of the compound would not have attracted comment.

David,

If this compound was built for the purpose of housing UBL and it was built in a military area then it seems reasonable to conclude that someone with military/security ties built it. Also, if it's true this was in the military cantonment zone, then UBL's couriers would have spent the past 5+ years going through Pakistani military checkpoints. That doesn't prove there was collusion, of course, but it does raise some questions.

Entropy
05-02-2011, 04:37 PM
Here are some Pentagon slides of the compound. (http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/Graphics%20for%20background%20briefing.pdf)

Now on SWJ Blog:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/bin-ladens-abbotabay-compound/

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 04:39 PM
AdamG posted earlier and I moved it into this thread. He has asked it be kept separate: 'OBL's death & Terrorism's next move':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=13217

davidbfpo
05-02-2011, 04:47 PM
David,

If this compound was built for the purpose of housing UBL and it was built in a military area then it seems reasonable to conclude that someone with military/security ties built it. Also, if it's true this was in the military cantonment zone, then UBL's couriers would have spent the past 5+ years going through Pakistani military checkpoints. That doesn't prove there was collusion, of course, but it does raise some questions.

I'm trying to think of an American illustration. The compound is adjacent to and near a military installation, say Davis-Mothan AFB across the road and in a housing area that is primarily for USAF staff. A housing area called a cantonment does not mean it is military owned or controlled and maybe within a security zone, when the level of security is raised is patrolled or VCP'd. I am sure you know of residential areas almost surrounded by US military bases.

As for the passage of couriers I expect them to be unarmed, possibly on foot or a motorcycle and able to pass unhindered. Arrive in a car less predictable and vulnerable to a cursory check / rummage.

To me very few questions.

Ray
05-02-2011, 05:01 PM
The killing of Osama bin Laden (OBL) was a good job done.

That the Pakistan ISI protects the terrorists of all status is now well established since OBL was in a military cantonment.

Cantonments, as per the British rules and being followed in the subcontinent, are run by the Military Estates Officer (a civil servant) and the Senior Most Army Officer is the Chairman of the Cantonment Board. He is responsible for all matters, policing, garbage disposal, environment, parks, housing laws and so on.

Given the popular support Imran Khan had whipped up whereby for two days the NATO supply line was blocked and the US and Pakistan Govt given a notice of 30 days to stop all Drone attacks, the killing of OBL was ideal to divert attention from the main issue of Drone attacks and wanting the US out of Pakistan, Drones and all. I believe the US is in the process of winding up Drone operations from their base(s) in Pakistan.

It would be prudent to watch how the Pakistani masses take OBL's killing.

On it will depend how the cat shall jump.

Will there be revenge attacks within Pakistan, in the neighbourhood or even in the West is to be seen.

If the attacks are on the West, Pakistan will be up a gum tree.

Ray
05-02-2011, 05:17 PM
Hundreds join first Pakistan rally to honour Osama bin Laden
AFP | May 2, 2011, 09.39pm IST


QUETTA, PAKISTAN: Hundreds took to the streets of Pakistan's city of Quetta on Monday to pay homage to Osama bin Laden, chanting death to America and setting fire to a US flag, witnesses and organisers said.

Angry participants belonging to a religious party in Quetta, the capital of southwestern province Baluchistan, were led by federal lawmaker Maulawi Asmatullah. They also torched a US flag before dispersing peacefully.


"Bin Laden was the hero of the Muslim world and after his martyrdom he has won the title of great mujahed (Muslim fighter)," Asmatullah said.
Link (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Hundreds-join-first-Pakistan-rally-to-honour-Osama-bin-Laden/articleshow/8145801.cms)

bourbon
05-02-2011, 05:24 PM
Here’s the guy who unwittingly live-tweeted the raid on Bin Laden (http://eu.techcrunch.com/2011/05/02/heres-the-guy-who-unwittingly-live-tweeted-the-raid-on-bin-laden/)

Fuchs
05-02-2011, 05:52 PM
East Germany harbored West German left-wing terrorists (R.A.F.) - under the condition that
a) they don't ever leave East germany
b) they don't do anything related to R.A.F. again


Maybe Pakistan did the same and that's the reason for the near-complete separation of UBL from day-to-day AQ business?

An Outsider
05-02-2011, 06:27 PM
This is a great opportunity to declare victory and get out of the mess.
A pessimistic outlook from National Defense magazine:
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=404

Doesn't seem like the talking heads are headed in that direction right now.

JarodParker
05-02-2011, 09:39 PM
I'm trying to think of an American illustration.

How about Quantico, VA?

Quantico is a famous town in the state of Virginia in United States, which comes under the control of the Prince William County. The Quantico city is considered as the county seat of Prince William County and the city is located in the Metropolitan Area of Washington. The Marine Corps Base Quantico covers three sides of the Quantico city and the fourth side of the city is covered by the Potomac River.
Could someone get into the city of Quantico without tipping off the USMC? I would imagine so.
No amount of proof (photo, DNA, corpse etc) will convince the non-believers. So I think killing him on the spot and burial at sea were the best decisions they could've made under the circumstances. The following video will demonstrate my point... Exhibit A (http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=11926&title=celebrity-trial-jury-selection)

Above all I'm really happy no US personnel got hurt. I look forward to hearing about follow-on operations that will be based on intel gathered from the hideout.

ergomatic
05-02-2011, 11:08 PM
my intuition, unencumbered by evidence or expertise, is that this went down pretty much exactly as described by the President and other administration officials. Given the level of OPSEC discipline shown by OBL in the past, I find it completely plausible that he could have installed himself in the compound with no help whatsoever from ISI or any other Pakistani government entity. Dude must have had one hell of a videogame collection, though....how do you keep from going completely stir-crazy, keeping yourself sequestered like that? The weak point is getting inside- any intel on when OBL took up residency?

Fuchs
05-02-2011, 11:28 PM
Compound was built in 2005 afaik.

Btw, I read the firefight lasted for 40 minutes. Surprising.

motorfirebox
05-03-2011, 12:34 AM
Given the compound's location, it seems like the most likely scenario is that OBL occupied it with the knowledge and possibly the assistance of the ISI. It's certainly possible that the ISI wasn't aware, but that strikes me as the more extraordinary claim.

The question of whether we found OBL with their help or despite it (assuming they knew) is a coin toss. OBL was a high value target to us, but his greatest value to AQ and its extended friends seems like maybe it lay mostly in the fact that we wanted him, with some possible secondary value as a figurehead or totem. If the ISI did know his location, that information would have been to them a really valuable bargaining chip (and if the ISI helped set him up in that compound, it was probably to lock him down for future use as such).

jmm99
05-03-2011, 12:49 AM
one more to go.

Boots on the ground; confirmation of the 2001 AUMF and the Laws of War.

Regards

Mike

blueblood
05-03-2011, 01:33 AM
I'm trying to think of an American illustration. The compound is adjacent to and near a military installation, say Davis-Mothan AFB across the road and in a housing area that is primarily for USAF staff. A housing area called a cantonment does not mean it is military owned or controlled and maybe within a security zone, when the level of security is raised is patrolled or VCP'd. I am sure you know of residential areas almost surrounded by US military bases.

As for the passage of couriers I expect them to be unarmed, possibly on foot or a motorcycle and able to pass unhindered. Arrive in a car less predictable and vulnerable to a cursory check / rummage.

To me very few questions.

AFAIK, both Pakistan and India follow British cantonment rules which denies the building of any structure above two stories within 2 km radius. Even if they exists, they are most probably raised before the establishment of the military institution or in the case that the cantonment is established within city limits. Both the cases are invalid here.

Secondly, for the past few years Pakistani military establishments are being targeted by Taliban and other terrorist outfits. So, the question is that how come this mansion avoided scrutiny by Pakistani military or intelligence community.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Lahore_bombings

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Lahore_police_academy_attacks

huskerguy7
05-03-2011, 01:54 AM
I'm just baffled by Pakistan's inability to "know" of OBL's presence. I've expressed (http://student-view-world.blogspot.com/2011/05/death-of-osama-bin-laden-evidence-of.html) my thoughts, but one thing just bugs me: the size of the mansion. The mansion is between a hospital and college, so there is no doubt a large amount of human traffic around the compound. According to various sources, it's 8 times the size of other buildings in the same area; it sticks out. How do members of the local population not notice the compound? I mean, if a house 8 times the size of my home was built a block away, I would definitely put forth the energy to find out who lives there any maybe what they do because it's just not normal.

Here's the thing. We can't begin chewing out Pakistan and telling them that we aren't going to work with them. That's equivalent to a road builder saying that he won't work with the Department of Roads. It just won't work.

motorfirebox
05-03-2011, 02:06 AM
Well, regarding the locals, I doubt they wanted to know. Possible results of knowing OBL is your next-door neighbor:

1) OBL's buddies kill you to keep you quiet.
2) The US blows up the whole compound and you're collateral damage.
3) The US sends in a team to kill OBL in person, and you have to worry about catching a stray round.

There's really no upside to knowing.

carl
05-03-2011, 02:12 AM
Here's the thing. We can't begin chewing out Pakistan and telling them that we aren't going to work with them. That's equivalent to a road builder saying that he won't work with the Department of Roads. It just won't work.

So how far has working with them gotten us in Afghanistan? It has gotten us the considerable emotional satisfaction of getting somebody who may not matter much, after 10 years, what it will cost yet to be determined. If the road builder keeps constructing bridges that collapse and road beds made of silt in a flood plain, maybe we ought to consider changing something.

Polarbear
05-03-2011, 06:29 AM
Either OBL was given up on purpose by the Pak Army, ISI, or factions thereof, or the US acquired and acted upon intel without their help, which is entirely possible. The official Pakistani reaction will be interesting. I imagine comment from both sides will be sanitized to some extent, likely a large extent... still interesting to see what emerges. It would be tough for the Pakistani government to admit that they passed on information that led to an American operation on Pakistani soil, so I suppose they'll have to pitch it as an independent US operation, whatever the truth of it is.

Following my own research on the relations between the Pakistani Politics and Security appartus with Taliban fighters, I guess you are not to far off Dayuhan. Especially the ISI not onlx colludes with Taliban leadership but seems to exert a large amount of control over it. This becomes especially clear , when one considers how Pakistan is picking out leaders who deviate from the 'official' Pakistani policy, as for example Mullah Beradar last year and his brother this year.
Therefore, I think the death of OBL will not have a great impact on the war in Afghanistan nor on terrorism worldwide.

Dayuhan
05-03-2011, 06:49 AM
Good to remember, I think, that while a great deal of speculation is possible, it's all still speculation. There's a great deal that we do not know, and may not know for a long time, if ever. If there was a formal decision to give up OBL, or if someone sold him out without approval from higher levels, or if the US used its own resources to get information from within the Pakistani establishment, that information will not be revealed. Whatever is said will be adjusted to protect sources.

There's a lot we don't know, and any conclusions based on speculation are inherently... well, speculative.

I agree, though, that there will probably not be any dramatic effect on the war in Afghanistan or on the various Islamist networks.

I do wish people would stop asking questions like "how will the death of OBL affect terrorism" or "what will terrorism be post bin Laden". This makes no sense. Terrorism is now exactly what it was before: a tactic. That tactic will continue to be adopted by those who believe it suits their ends and means. We are not fighting "terrorism", we are fighting a loose coalition of Islamist groups that have adopted terrorism as a primary tactic, though often in pursuit of diverse aims. We can ask what the impact of OBL's death on this international Islamist network will be, but we should not confuse that network with "terrorism".

Fuchs
05-03-2011, 08:08 AM
Well, regarding the locals, I doubt they wanted to know. Possible results of knowing OBL is your next-door neighbor:

1) OBL's buddies kill you to keep you quiet.
2) The US blows up the whole compound and you're collateral damage.
3) The US sends in a team to kill OBL in person, and you have to worry about catching a stray round.

There's really no upside to knowing.

... besides getting super-rich with the bounty and moving into a safe Western country with the money.

Bob's World
05-03-2011, 10:51 AM
Best that we accept and never forget that Pakistan's top vital interest is their national survival in regards to their greatest threat, India. That is not going to change any time soon, and certainly not because the US comes to town for a few years with an urgent crisis on our hands and asks them to subjugate that enduring national interest to the temporary pursuit of a conflicting interest as defined by the US. It is completely unreasonable to expect Pakistan to do so.

But here is there conundrum, they also have a vital interest in maintaining strong relations with the U.S. This has put them in a situation where they have little choice but to officially support us to the degree they can, while at the same time unofficially, and if need be covertly, continue to support their other interest as well. This is natural, we would all do the same thing if in the same situation, and it is to me frankly bizarre that the US leadership and US media make such sport of throwing verbal rocks at Pakistan for being an unreliable ally.

In court, this is what is called a "hostile witness" when you put someone on the stand to testify that has a clear conflict of interests, as they are clearly identified as such and special guards and allowances are made to facilitate gaining the support one needs.

Pakistan is a "hostile ally," and that is ok. We really should not expect more of them. Beyond mis-identifying the problem in Afghanistan, we have also failed to fully appreciate Pakistan's interests and taken all into account in our operational design for mitigating AQ and achieving some degree of stability in the region.

I'd give the current strategy (that is about 9 years old) and the many variations of tactical priorities and programs (that change every couple of years due to the flawed strategy) about a D+ and demand a do-over. Ironically I was chatting with some "AFPAK Center of Excellence" people from CENTCOM the other day, and they believe their mission is only to think within the lines drawn for them by higher (White House, ISAF, CENTCOM CDR). I asked them who then thinks about other alternatives and options that might more effectively get at the ends for the operation? They had no good answer for that.

If we are waiting for some White House staffer to whisper in the President's ear a brilliant new concept for achieving our ends in the AFPAK region we are in some serious trouble. Too bad the hundreds of action officers tasked to work the mission at MacDill don't see that as being in their lane. (granted, the ones I spoke to may not have represented the entire organization, but chain of command and nesting can have a stifling effect on creative thinking)

omarali50
05-03-2011, 11:59 AM
Robert sahib, lets take the notion of thinking outside the given parameters a little further. What happens if you dare to think (creatively) that the assumption that Pakistan's national interest consists of nothing more than an endless zero-sum game with India is in fact wrong? That BOTH countries would have been much better off if they had not spent the last 60 years trying to pull each other down by all means fair or foul.
I dont mean to sound rude, you are obviously a senior professional and therefore must know what you are doing, but I fail to see why you accept the Pakistani army's narrow definition of Pakistan's national interest totally without question?
Could it be that the "interest" here is not the interest of the 180 million people of Pakistan, but only of a very small military-bureaucratic elite that uses this storyline to pursue policies that are actually inimical to the interests of most of those people (and of course, milks its helpful patrons in the process....patrons who are either cynically exploiting this warped storyline for their own purposes or failing to think above their pay-grade)?

Entropy
05-03-2011, 12:34 PM
Bob,

I think your analysis on Pakistan is spot on. All the hand-wringing and complaining here in the US about Pakistan isn't going to change that. Unfortunately, we've tied our strategy to Pakistan as we would like it to be and not the Pakistan as it is.

Hacksaw
05-03-2011, 01:12 PM
Robert sahib, lets take the notion of thinking outside the given parameters a little further. What happens if you dare to think (creatively) that the assumption that Pakistan's national interest consists of nothing more than an endless zero-sum game with India is in fact wrong? That BOTH countries would have been much better off if they had not spent the last 60 years trying to pull each other down by all means fair or foul.
I dont mean to sound rude, you are obviously a senior professional and therefore must know what you are doing, but I fail to see why you accept the Pakistani army's narrow definition of Pakistan's national interest totally without question?
Could it be that the "interest" here is not the interest of the 180 million people of Pakistan, but only of a very small military-bureaucratic elite that uses this storyline to pursue policies that are actually inimical to the interests of most of those people (and of course, milks its helpful patrons in the process....patrons who are either cynically exploiting this warped storyline for their own purposes or failing to think above their pay-grade)?

I think this is a very interesting premise, but...

Whom would the US pol/mil reps deal with if not the acknowledged national leadership? Are you suggesting supporting a democratic revolution? From a US perspective... an altruistic set of Pak strategic priorities would seem to include eliminating terrorist elements that are formenting unrest and detente with its neighbors... I think BW is simply advocating acknowledging the geopolitical realities of the Pak nation and working from there... you seem to be advocating determining what should be the geopolitical realities of the Pak nation and act to see that reality emerge (the US has been pretty roundly criticized for that type of foreign policy in the distant and recent past)...

Live well and row

Polarbear
05-03-2011, 01:12 PM
Pakistan is a "hostile ally," and that is ok. We really should not expect more of them. Beyond mis-identifying the problem in Afghanistan, we have also failed to fully appreciate Pakistan's interests and taken all into account in our operational design for mitigating AQ and achieving some degree of stability in the region.
Tell that some journalists of the western european, and especially the german speaking press. For the absolute majority of them Pakistan ist still the true parter in the GWOT.

davidbfpo
05-03-2011, 01:29 PM
This is a very curious statement:
The ISI official told the BBC's Owen Bennett-Jones in Islamabad that the compound in Abbottabad, just 100km (62 miles) from the capital, was raided when under construction in 2003. It was believed an al-Qaeda operative, Abu Faraj al-Libi, was there. But since then "the compound was not on our radar, it is an embarrassment for the ISI", the official said. "We're good, but we're not God."

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13268517

Abu Faraj al-Libi was detained in Mardan, Pakistan in 2005, in a joint operation and is in Guantanamo Bay, from:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Faraj_al-Libbi

When you are pursuing a fugitive any residence linked to him and his close associates should remain on the radar, if only for reference purposes and was this information shared in 2003?

davidbfpo
05-03-2011, 01:32 PM
The BBC World Service reporter Owen Bennett-Jones, until last week in the Lebanon covering Syria, has returned to Pakistan and his short analysis is worth citing in full and I have placed one sentence in bold:
Clearly there were people helping Bin Laden in this location... were they state employees, were they simply from Taliban-related groups, were they from the intelligence agencies?

For all Americans may ask the questions, I doubt they will get any answers. There will be ambiguity about this and the Pakistanis will deny they had any knowledge whatsoever.

The establishment here is made up of army leadership, intelligence agency leadership and some senior civil servants, and they have always run Pakistan, whether democratic governments or military governments, and those people do have connections with jihadis.

The difficulty the West has is in appreciating there are more than 20 different types of jihadi organisations, and al-Qaeda is just one of them. The state has different policies towards different types of group and that subtlety is often lost on Western policy-makers.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13268517

carl
05-03-2011, 01:45 PM
Best that we accept and never forget that Pakistan's top vital interest is their national survival in regards to their greatest threat, India. That is not going to change any time soon, and certainly not because the US comes to town for a few years with an urgent crisis on our hands and asks them to subjugate that enduring national interest to the temporary pursuit of a conflicting interest as defined by the US. It is completely unreasonable to expect Pakistan to do so.

In the spirit of Mr. Omarali, your statement would much more accurate if you substituted for the word Pakistan, the phrase "Pak Army/ISI/feudal elites" and the word "their" for "national." I agree it would be completely unreasonable to expect them to change. Things have been working out well for them, lots of money and little risk, kind of like the Somali pirates.


But here is there conundrum, they also have a vital interest in maintaining strong relations with the U.S. This has put them in a situation where they have little choice but to officially support us to the degree they can, while at the same time unofficially, and if need be covertly, continue to support their other interest as well. This is natural, we would all do the same thing if in the same situation, and it is to me frankly bizarre that the US leadership and US media make such sport of throwing verbal rocks at Pakistan for being an unreliable ally.

They do indeed have a conundrum, but it is more along the lines of a commercial problem-how to keep the money flowing mostly to them for as long as they can. They have been doing a good job 'cause they are good at sneaky.

Please though Councilor, why would a conscientious advocate find it bizarre that the Americans point out that the Pak Army/ISI/feudal elites are unreliable allies. They are unreliable allies as you have noted for the reasons you have noted. Why is it bizarre for the truth to be stated?


In court, this is what is called a "hostile witness" when you put someone on the stand to testify that has a clear conflict of interests, as they are clearly identified as such and special guards and allowances are made to facilitate gaining the support one needs.

I submit that a different analogy be used, that of an informant playing both sides and occasionally setting up officers to be killed. You do take special precautions, like getting rid of the guy. Officers morale tends to decay when this isn't done. I like this analogy better because things are still happening; not like court where things that happened are talked about.


Pakistan is a "hostile ally," and that is ok. We really should not expect more of them. Beyond mis-identifying the problem in Afghanistan, we have also failed to fully appreciate Pakistan's interests and taken all into account in our operational design for mitigating AQ and achieving some degree of stability in the region.

Yes the Pak Army/ISI/feudal elites are hostile allies and it is ok...for them. They will continue to be since it pays. I disagree that we do not appreciate their interests since we keep blindly serving them. A few verbal pokes once in a while is a small thing in return for the money they get. Blindly serving their interests has led us into misidentifying the biggest part of the problem in Afghanistan, their interests. It is hard to see the sun in the sky with our eyes closed.


I'd give the current strategy (that is about 9 years old) and the many variations of tactical priorities and programs (that change every couple of years due to the flawed strategy) about a D+ and demand a do-over. Ironically I was chatting with some "AFPAK Center of Excellence" people from CENTCOM the other day, and they believe their mission is only to think within the lines drawn for them by higher (White House, ISAF, CENTCOM CDR). I asked them who then thinks about other alternatives and options that might more effectively get at the ends for the operation? They had no good answer for that.

If we are waiting for some White House staffer to whisper in the President's ear a brilliant new concept for achieving our ends in the AFPAK region we are in some serious trouble. Too bad the hundreds of action officers tasked to work the mission at MacDill don't see that as being in their lane. (granted, the ones I spoke to may not have represented the entire organization, but chain of command and nesting can have a stifling effect on creative thinking)

I agree with every word. If only we could toss away our blinders, see that sun in the sky and stop being teacup poodles for the General sahibs and the feudal lords, then a whole range of possibilities would open up. But we won't because we haven't and we can't do what we haven't done because we can't think of it. Just like you say.

And just like you say we should, I suspect we have adjusted our strategy to accommodate the General sahibs and company. They give us AQ, we give them Afghanistan. Aside from the shame of that, it will work out great for us and, temporarily, for the Pak Army/ISI/feudal elites. Not in the long run though for them because stability will most certainly not follow. It will work out bad for everybody else in the region from the get go. Maybe we can take some of the terps with us on the way out.

omarali50
05-03-2011, 03:59 PM
I think this is a very interesting premise, but...

Whom would the US pol/mil reps deal with if not the acknowledged national leadership? Are you suggesting supporting a democratic revolution? From a US perspective... an altruistic set of Pak strategic priorities would seem to include eliminating terrorist elements that are formenting unrest and detente with its neighbors... I think BW is simply advocating acknowledging the geopolitical realities of the Pak nation and working from there... you seem to be advocating determining what should be the geopolitical realities of the Pak nation and act to see that reality emerge (the US has been pretty roundly criticized for that type of foreign policy in the distant and recent past)...

Live well and row

1. First of all, there IS a democratic (or semi-democratic) leadership and they DO have different ideas from what GHQ is selling. Pakistan does not HAVE to mean GHQ and no one else, though obviously it means GHQ TOO.
I am not suggesting the US impose democracy or anything else. But I do suspect that the current "transactional relationship" would change rather drastically if all transactions are consciously carried out while knowing the various forces in play instead of creating a standard narrative of "national interests" and being all too "understanding" of GHQ's version of "national interest" when the nation is actually full of people who DO have a different and saner version.

2. The US has tremendous leverage which it sometimes seems to waste on inessential or secondary objectives. This is, of course, an opinion. What is essential or secondary is a judgment call. I can only suggest that those judgments will themselves change (gradually and sometimes silently and unknowingly, as judgments usually change in human minds) when the narrative we are using is adjusted. This is a claim based on personal experience. Step one is being willing to consider (if only as a background assumption) that the existing narrative of Pakistani national interest may not be in the interest of most Pakistanis. let that stay in your mind for a few months. Other parts of the mental furniture will move around gradually as you do so.
One day, Wittgenstein was chatting with a friend and said "‘I’ve always wondered why for so long people thought that the Sun revolved around the Earth."
‘Why?’ said his surprised interlocutor, ‘ I suppose it just looks that way’
‘Hmm’, retorted W. ‘and what would it look like if the Earth revolved around the Sun and rotated on its axis?
The point of the anecdote is that both narratives would look the same to a casual observer watching the sun from his window. But the second is "truer" (closer to reality), and because it is so, it opens up vast new understandings and possibilities that the first failed to catch.
Its the same here. Try out the alternative narrative and it may make other things clearer and it may throw up options that the first one did not.

3. As an illustration, let me attempt what I think is a possible scenario about this bin laden hideout business (one of many possible scenarios...with zero inside information, I cannot pretend to be able to reach final conclusions). I think it is plausible that GHQ really did NOT know where Bin Laden was hiding. But GHQ has failed to act against (or even to regard as potentially suspicious) the "good jihadis", both within the ISI and outside it. Because of that, the ordinary Pakistani police and the average local security officer does not have to be a jihadist to fail to take note of jihadists in his area. All that is needed is that some sympathizers within the intelligence community set up such a compound and let it be known that it houses "good jihadis" and has been checked out. NO ONE else will want to look into it. Everyone knows which way their bread is buttered.
As a practical matter, the "war on terror" is never going to get too far while there are good terrorists being protected, there are sympathizers in power and the vast psyops apparatus of GHQ is spreading disinformation that demonizes the US, Jews, Hindus ,CIA...everyone but the jihadists. The whole thing would be a huge task even if the aim was clear. Its an impossible job in the current fashion. Telling GHQ that they really have to drop the notion of fighting their real and imaginary war with India using "good taliban" and "good jihadists" is not a side issue. It is the main issue.

4. Having said all this, I also don't think the US is going to be the agent of this change. It would have been nice if the US had used it leverage to get GHQ under adult supervision, but realistically, that is not something the personnel involved on the American side are even capable of doing. Most military officers have a soft spot for uniformed officers who talk in the same "strategic terms". The US is mostly a bumbling and partly unwilling agent of a change that is going to be forced on GHQ by many factors. I still think that the change is inevitable because I (like many other people..this is not a unique quality) do think that there is a real world and in that real world some maps are slightly more accurate and useful than others. Just because someone calls it a "map" does not mean I have to buy it. When it comes to Pakistan, I do have a map in mind and it is not the one being sold on paknationalists.com. That makes me a sort of interested party, so "buyer beware" when it comes to MY map. But again, I know I am not selling BS for some other purpose, so I am sticking to my claims. Everyone else has to judge them for themselves and make up their own minds. How else could it be?

davidbfpo
05-03-2011, 10:04 PM
Worth capturing here and has some noteworthy passages:http://www.mofa.gov.pk/Press_Releases/2011/May/PR_152.htm

Like:
Abbottabad and the surrounding areas have been under sharp focus of intelligence agencies since 2003 resulting in highly technical operation by ISI which led to the arrest of high value Al Qaeda target in 2004. As far as the target compound is concerned, ISI had been sharing information with CIA and other friendly intelligence agencies since 2009. The intelligence flow indicating some foreigners in the surroundings of Abbottabad, continued till mid April 2011. It is important to highlight that taking advantage of much superior technological assets...There has been a lot of discussion about the nature of the targeted compound, particularly its high walls and its vicinity to the areas housing Pakistan Army elements. It needs to be appreciated that many houses occupied by the affectees of operations in FATA / KPK, have high boundary walls, in line with their culture of privacy and security. Houses with such layout and structural details are not a rarity.

SWJ Blog
05-03-2011, 10:30 PM
Bin Laden Arabic Editorial Roundup (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/bin-laden-arabic-editorial-rou/)

Entry Excerpt:

Bin Laden Arabic Editorial Roundup
Selected Excerpts Compiled by Scott Weiner, PhD Student
The George Washington University
Translated from Arabic

Continue on for the editorial roundup.



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/bin-laden-arabic-editorial-rou/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
05-03-2011, 11:00 PM
OBL: Epic Fail and Legacy (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/obl-epic-fail-and-legacy/)

Entry Excerpt:

Osama Bin Laden: Epic Fail? (http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2011/05/osama-bin-laden-epic-fail/) - Dr. David Betz at Kings of War:


"... On the other hand, I also agree with something Bruce Berkowitz wrote about Bin Laden years ago in his book The New Face of War (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1416584528?ie=UTF8&tag=smallwarsjour-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=1789&creativeASIN=1416584528): ‘History will not portray Osama bin Laden as a mere terrorist, rather instructors at West Point and Annapolis will cite him as one of the first military commanders to use a new kind of combat organization in a successful operation.’ There’s no contradiction here; Bin Laden joins a long list of military innovators who fought in lost causes. The advantage of being first is often fleeting and I think, hope earnestly, that that is what is happening here ..." FPRI Perspectives on bin Laden's Demise (http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201105.fpri.binladen.html) - Foreign Policy Research Institute:


The world is better off without Osama bin Laden. But his demise does not mean the end of terrorism. What is bin Laden’s legacy, and what will Al Qaeda and its affiliates do in the post-bin Laden era? We asked two Senior Fellows of FPRI to comment on these questions – Lawrence Husick and Barak Mendelsohn.

--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/obl-epic-fail-and-legacy/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
05-04-2011, 09:32 AM
Slowly some more details are appearing, much of it appears to be from asking the locals and I expect some speculation:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13266944

I liked these snippets:
..neighbours say the "Osama entourage" passed themselves off as gold merchants...all observers are united is that the women were rarely seen. Most people assumed that this is because they were Pashtun, and they tend to observe strict purdah.

Slightly more local 'colour" on:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/03/osama-bin-laden-death-raid

Note the nearest neighbour's house was occupied by a Pakistani Army major.

You judge how accurate this is.

motorfirebox
05-04-2011, 09:45 AM
... besides getting super-rich with the bounty and moving into a safe Western country with the money.
Eh, Joe Sixpakistan doesn't have the connections necessary to get the information to the US and collect the bounty without somebody killing him--either to keep him quiet or so they can collect the bounty themselves.

Fuchs
05-04-2011, 01:10 PM
Eh, Joe Sixpakistan doesn't have the connections necessary to get the information to the US and collect the bounty without somebody killing him--either to keep him quiet or so they can collect the bounty themselves.

...except that the U.S. embassy is in Islamabad's city map.

omarali50
05-04-2011, 02:21 PM
Fuchs, 25 million and a green card is very attractive, but try to think of the downsides.
1. The ISI watches embassies and foreigners like a hawk. Anyone thinking of ratting out binladen faced the real prospect of being picked up and found with a hole drilled in his head (not with a bullet..with an actual electric drill).
2. Suppose you got out alive, what about your extended family? Either you sever all ties with life in Pakistan forever, or you take them all with you? the logistics are not straightforward, nor are the pros and cons.
I am not saying no one would be tempted. I am just pointing out that there are some downsides to being on the wrong side of international Jihad in such a public way.

omarali50
05-04-2011, 02:22 PM
I would add that the calculation can change. If ISI is clearly AGAINST jihadism, then the whole calculation is dramatically different.

Polarbear
05-04-2011, 02:31 PM
Just got that piece from the Worldsecuritynetwork. An interview with Hamid Gul, former director of the ISI. Well, I think that says enough about the attitude towards Afghanistan.....

http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/showArticle3.cfm?article_id=18557&topicID=77

omarali50
05-04-2011, 02:52 PM
I assume some people here can read Urdu. These are just two random op-eds from very very prominent rightwing personalities in Pakistan and reflect a strange mix of ignorance, despair and bravado:

http://express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1101232878&Issue=NP_LHE&Date=20110504

http://express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1101232882&Issue=NP_LHE&Date=20110504

abdul qadir hassan (the first column) is probably the senior most (and one of the most respected) Urdu columnists in Pakistan. He weeps for Osama Shaheed and asks when we will see more Osamas and fewer prime ministers who celebrate his death?

Orya Maqbool Jan, the second columnist, is a serving senior civil servant and likes to think of himself as an intellectual mentor to the patriotic Pakistanis of tomorrow. His piece is untranslatable but includes the belief that the world trade center was not brought down by Osama and that his killing is also fake. The assumption is that all this is part of some orchestrated plot to attack Pakistan, as predicted in the book of Daniel in the Bible. I am not kidding.

Marcellinus
05-04-2011, 03:31 PM
So now the only evidence that exists that can shed any light on this operation--other that taking the national security team's word for it--the photo, will not be released because of Muslin sensibilities (and yet the conspiracy theories are supposedly coming out of Muslim countries).

Let's recap then. No body. It had to be dumped at sea within 24 hours or it would offend Muslin sensibilities, even though it seem that many Muslim's do not hold this belief. The only evidence we have is facial recognition, which we will never see, DNA test results, which we will never see, the picture of a dead bin Laden, which we will never see, and the testimony of a supposed 'special warfare development group', who will never be revealed.

I am not an avid conspiracy theorist, but those who are (along with many people who are just plain skeptical) say that bin Laden has been dead since 2002. They very well could have been wrong.

What possible reason would the Obama administration have for this story at this moment in time.

As already pointed out, people seem to be under the impression that this ends the war in Afghanistan and we can be done with it. That would give the decision makers the justification to begin to draw down troops which would lead to a smaller 'footprint' in Afghanistan and the general feeling of having won the war with an exit on the very near horizon by say the summer of 2012 (nb that date) instead of 2014. I can't imagine a better platform for re-election amidst a horrible economy than the one platform that usually trumps the economy. The economy can take the back seat to fact that the mission has supposedly been accomplished in Afghanistan, the troops are coming home and America is safer...big sigh of relief.

Like I said, I am not a conspiracy theorist. My biggest problem with conspiracies is the same as everyone else's: it doesn't take many moving parts for it to fall apart. the more people involved the greater chance of there being a dissenter. Even if this conspiracy theory was true and the only people who were in on it were the President's national security team, I don't for a minute believe that Clinton would comply with a plan that would make Obama more electable in 2012. The only way that I could imagine that would be to invoke terms like 'New World Order' and 'Illuminati' and such. While I less than incredulous of those terms than some, it might lead people to believe that I hold beliefs things that I don't. So why don't we all just forget I just typed this message.:o

davidbfpo
05-04-2011, 07:06 PM
I don't recall seeing this and just found it on the BBC's running log:
1056: A crucial clue that led the US to Bin Laden was the moment his courier switched on his mobile phone outside the compound, says the BBC's Gordon Corera. "The courier was the key. First of all they had his 'nom de guerre', then they had to identify him, and then from a phonecall last year they tracked him to this particular compound. That led to the surveillance. But even when the US went in they weren't 100% sure Bin Laden was in there."

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

In Post 35 I stated:
...with no electronic signature too..

If the report is true (anyone else seen similar?) then the courier made a mistake. Which reinforces my view - to avoid capture, never use a mobile phone.

davidbfpo
05-04-2011, 07:26 PM
In answer to the questions here about the land / house ownership the BBC running log has:
1524: A doctor who sold a piece of the land in Abbottabad where Osama Bin Laden's compound was built has said the Pakistani buyer did not seem to be a militant. "He was a very simple, modest, humble type of man" who was "very interested" in buying the land for "an uncle", Dr Qazi Mahfooz Ul Haq told the Associated Press. Property records show Mohammad Arshad bought adjoining plots in four stages between 2004 and 2005 for $48,000. Neighbours said a man who called himself Arshad Khan was among those who lived there.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

motorfirebox
05-04-2011, 08:13 PM
...except that the U.S. embassy is in Islamabad's city map.
If the ISI is really bad at its job, it might have been as simple as walking up to the American embassy and claiming the bounty. I don't see why it's reasonable to assume that the ISI is really bad at its job.

Stan
05-04-2011, 09:16 PM
In Post 35 I stated:

If the report is true (anyone else seen similar?) then the courier made a mistake. Which reinforces my view - to avoid capture, never use a mobile phone.

Hey David,
According to our criminal police, the only way to preclude tracing a cell is by removing the battery. Switching it off does not "disconnect" it. But even just switching off leaves you with several hundred yards between relays (depending on the country you're in that distance could be far greater).

The courier never attended Entropy's OPSEC course :D

Fuchs
05-04-2011, 09:45 PM
If the ISI is really bad at its job, it might have been as simple as walking up to the American embassy and claiming the bounty. I don't see why it's reasonable to assume that the ISI is really bad at its job.

Well, maybe I should not assume that others are like me, but thinking of ISI observation of foreign embassies, I would simply use bow & arrow to shoot a message in from 200+ m away, for example.

I'm sure that you couldn't keep ME from contacting foreigners, even with the tools of the ISI.

omarali50
05-04-2011, 10:39 PM
I am such a softie that I am beginning to feel bad for GHQ. All their super-clever ideas have led them to the mother of all double-binds. Between a rock and a very very hard place. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
The irony is that Kiyani is probably the smartest person to ever occupy that exalted chair in GHQ. Which is not saying much, this being the army in which a buffoon like Musharraf was thought to be smart. Kiyani (I think) has an inkling of where things stand, but has no idea how to tell his own officer corps the facts of life. The poor souls would go berserk. in fact, the biggest threat until the poor sods settle down mentally, will be the threat of an attempted coup by someone who has become completely deranged.

And all those educated pakistanis who are dying to see Imran Khan become prime minister, what will happen to them? They have been taught by GHQ’s best and brightest psyops operators about how brilliant our army is and how great ISI is and now this. Its a massive Akki-Inoki* moment.

*Akki-Inoki moment: in the mid-seventies, world wrestling champion Inoki came to Lahore for an exhibition match against the pride of Pakistan, Akram Pehelwan (aka Akki). The bout lasted 3 seconds, at which point Inoki pulled akram’s shoulder out and it was all over. For some of us, it was a great “teaching moment” to realize where we stood and what level the world was at…

The Olive Sword
05-04-2011, 10:45 PM
I personally don't understand their reasoning for burying the body at sea. If they wanted to be sensitive to their customs then it would have been more appropriate to bury him in an unmarked grave. If you do that at an undisclosed location how could anyone create a shrine or pilgrimages? Besides that, doing so is sacrilegious for them anyway.

I know some won't care, but part of the WOT is winning hearts and minds, so I believe the burial was an important factor.

Hacksaw
05-05-2011, 12:38 AM
I personally don't understand their reasoning for burying the body at sea. If they wanted to be sensitive to their customs then it would have been more appropriate to bury him in an unmarked grave. If you do that at an undisclosed location how could anyone create a shrine or pilgrimages? Besides that, doing so is sacrilegious for them anyway.

I know some won't care, but part of the WOT is winning hearts and minds, so I believe the burial was an important factor.

OS... its not you, but I can't contain myself anymore...:(

This is the same person who called for the killing of mil and civ americans where ever you find them... whose people cut off heads in the name of his organization and cause... is short I wish they had chummed the waters before they burried him... and while it is far outside of my character... I'm pissed that they went to any bother to prepare the body as if we should give a rip...:mad:

By the way "hearts and minds" has nothing to do with getting them to like us... anyone who takes great offense at the handling of his body is unlikely to be swayed if we had... lost too many friends as a result of the events put into motion by this piece of pig fecal matter...

omarali50
05-05-2011, 01:19 AM
Hearts and minds are an important part of this struggle, but burial at sea and such small symbolic things have very little to do with winning or losing the struggle for hearts and minds. The whole notion of winning hearts and minds by being "sensitive" to the deranged feelings of childlike imaginary hordes of Muslims is silly. It would be much better to imagine what a struggle for hearts and minds would look like if the target audience is grown-up human beings. It would look very different. Those who are cooking up conspiracy theories or saying burial at sea is against Islam are not opposing the US because of burial at sea. They are opposing burial at sea because they oppose the US. Try to keep that in mind and things will become simpler.
Some aspects (huge aspects) of the struggle for hearts and minds are unwinnable because they are not on the table (like support for Israeli occupation). But even there, an adult conversation would be healthier than thinking you will buy off the people with some schools (whose funds were mostly stolen by corrupt elites, whose teachers have never shown up for work, and whose buildings will soon be blown up anyway). Other aspects depend on making your expectations clearer and your motivations more transparent. There is actually less to be feared from the truth than the state dept seems to imagine. People understand that powers have interests and demands. They would prefer a straight answer to bull#### anyday.

Dayuhan
05-05-2011, 02:42 AM
Well, regarding the locals, I doubt they wanted to know. Possible results of knowing OBL is your next-door neighbor:

1) OBL's buddies kill you to keep you quiet.
2) The US blows up the whole compound and you're collateral damage.
3) The US sends in a team to kill OBL in person, and you have to worry about catching a stray round.

There's really no upside to knowing.

Another possibility is implicit in this quote from a neighbor:


"People were skeptical in this neighborhood about this place and these guys. They used to gossip, say they were smugglers or drug dealers," said farmer Mashood Khan, 45.

Just because there's a suspicious house in the neighborhood doesn't mean the neighbors would automatically think of bin Laden... there are lots of other possibilities. In a country like Pakistan there's likely to also be a disinclination to do more than gossip, as any excessive curiosity might be unhealthy. In many ways the best security from prying neighbors would be to drop some remote hints that some notorious personality (legal, illegal, or both) was involved, which would satisfy the gossip mill and create a disincentive to further prying.

omarali50
05-05-2011, 03:03 AM
The easiest thing is to hint that the people living in said mystery house are vaguely connected to militancy and secret wars, but not on the ISI's ####-list. No one will give the place a second look and anyone who does so will be visited by some helpful captain and told what to say and do in the future.

motorfirebox
05-05-2011, 01:58 PM
Well, maybe I should not assume that others are like me, but thinking of ISI observation of foreign embassies, I would simply use bow & arrow to shoot a message in from 200+ m away, for example.

I'm sure that you couldn't keep ME from contacting foreigners, even with the tools of the ISI.
I don't think you're counting the probability that the ISI (and probably AQ/LeT personnel) would be observing you, yourself, if you were one of those neighbors. If you're some random ninja who happens to stroll by the compound and catch a glimpse of OBL, sure you could probably get to the embassy without much problem. If you're a guy who lives in that neighborhood, you're a quantity that whoever planted OBL there has already factored into their overall strategy. I mean, they spent a million bucks building the compound; surely they also spent some time and money making sure they have controls and contingencies on the people who live near the compound.

Fuchs
05-05-2011, 02:05 PM
Hardly. The compound was on open field early on. The city sprawled, the neighbours came later.

I further think you overestimate the capabilities of a state like Pakistan. They would need to knock on all doors and search the houses to even know who's living there. There's no credit card system that would allow them to track you buying a train ticket to Islamabad or something.

Wana88
05-06-2011, 02:03 AM
Those who have been repeatedly warning about the Paks dangerous double games for years would feel vindicated except we can't believe our side is still trying to spin this to give the Paks a way to wiggle out from the enormous pile of cow dung they find themselves under.

Look...its high time to WAKE the h--l up. Read my previous posts on this site.

Wonder why the Pakistanis are sooooo quiet on this. THEY KNOW what's what. The Afghans do too. The only real demonstrations in support of UBL have been low level affairs in Multan (Punjab) and Quetta (TQC country). Not a peep anywhere else. Sure the Pak army/state may whip something up soon to change this glaring equation.

Let's deal with the obvious: Pakistan doesn't have a military. Rather, the miliatry has a state. It is a POLICE state. It makes its business to know what is going on, especially in its cantonments and garrison towns. How do you think the retirees (including flag officers) in Bilal town would feel if the wool had been pulled over their fauji in uniform??? Aint gonna happen. Every building for miles around Kakul and Burn Hall (where their pampered kids attend boarding school), and especially ones with the kind of security features that UBL's overtly depicted would be closely investigated. Do you think the largest compound for miles with the nickname "Waziristan House" wouldn't be under scrutiny given the paranoid tendencies of the Paks???

Those still smoking the serious stuff need to quit...those engaged in wishful thinking need to face the cold hard reality: the Pak babus and fauji have been playing us for years at great peril to our national security. Our problems emanating from that region would have been long solved if the Paks had not been allowed to literally get away with murder (of its neighboring states' citizens (India and Afghanistan) and its own).

The Pushtuns in the FATA became the fall guys. Punjabis love it BTW. Don't believe the umma bull s--t. Another pile of dung that is....except in the West where they need each other due to low numbers.

The TTP is complex and run by meglomaniacal fools but their original agenda is all about defending their homeland from the brutalities of the Pak army.

BTW, remember Bugti in the wilds of Baluchistan and how they got to him?? Not to mention all the other assasinations. Oh and don't forget, KSM was also ensconced (comfortably) in the Pindi cantonment in the home of a Pak officer no less when he was captured.

But ask yourselves an important question: why on earth would they give VIP treatment to UBL for years?? Answer is external. Remember the Paks are the ultimate whores yet they arrogantly act like they are our equals!! It is this very hubris that was (amen Seal Team Six) their undoing and will continue to be their undoing. They think they are the best, the smartest and that is the pompous basta--s undoing. Now must caveat all this and say that there certainly are individual officers of the old (British) school mold but they have been marginalized and you have the johnny come latelys from the mohallas like Kayani. All so democratic but you have to wonder about pedigree...this aint the West folks.
Signing off: for the sake of pondering the "what if indeed..." as in UBL really built/funded this compound under the very noses of the army. Well then he had the biggest cojones on the block...no the region!The way he hid behind his woman's shalwar, however, suggests otherwise. He had ..... ones.
Can't help thinking about the Egyptian MB # 2...always thought he was in Mohmand/Bajaur/Kunar country near his in-laws kin. But it is time to check out all the garrison towns and be prepared to use the Seals again.

Entropy
05-06-2011, 04:09 AM
The courier never attended Entropy's OPSEC course :D

Hehe, I would make a bad terrorist since I'm completely addicted to my iphone.:D

slapout9
05-06-2011, 06:56 AM
Well maybe they didn't kill him but they were on the mission and they are not even eligible for any kind of award:p Link below.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83-SZNnXPF0

motorfirebox
05-06-2011, 03:41 PM
Hardly. The compound was on open field early on. The city sprawled, the neighbours came later.

I further think you overestimate the capabilities of a state like Pakistan. They would need to knock on all doors and search the houses to even know who's living there. There's no credit card system that would allow them to track you buying a train ticket to Islamabad or something.
I think I read somewhere that espionage existed before credit cards. I don't see that you'd need to knock on everyone's door--just have some of your own guys live there and watch the neighborhood. When one of the neighbors leaves for work, detail a guy to follow him and find out who he is. Or plant some guys in the construction companies when the houses are being built, and figure out who's moving into them that way. Insinuate people into the neighborhood, listen to the gossip. Identify people who are more curious about the compound. Identify people whose situation makes them more likely to try to collect on the reward. Plant some rumors of your own to keep suspicion down and/or keep people afraid to find out.

Point is, it didn't happen--"it" being a neighbor finding out and collecting the bounty. Maybe they never found out; the walls of the compound are certainly high enough. Regardless, I find it highly unlikely that if the ISI knew the location of OBL (and as I've said before, I think they did), they wouldn't put significant effort into making sure a random neighbor didn't screw up the entire operation. And there are lot of potential methods for accomplishing that sort of thing.

davidbfpo
05-09-2011, 01:54 PM
Pashtunwali appears on a few threads on SWC and the linked article explains some of the cultural context 'The Code of the Hills', which ends with:
more than anything, America needs to understand the importance of Pashtunwali and operate through it. People who see themselves through the lens of honor will respond positively if they are treated honorably.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/06/the_code_of_the_hills

Fuchs
05-09-2011, 02:29 PM
I think I read somewhere that espionage existed before credit cards.

http://theazon.com/2011/02/overloaded-train-at-pakistan/

Do you still think the ISI had even noticed if a neighbour had travelled to the embassy instead of to some distant uncle?

motorfirebox
05-09-2011, 06:29 PM
http://theazon.com/2011/02/overloaded-train-at-pakistan/

Do you still think the ISI had even noticed if a neighbour had travelled to the embassy instead of to some distant uncle?
Well, either they did notice, or nobody tried.

Dayuhan
05-10-2011, 12:16 AM
Well, either they did notice, or nobody tried.

I see no reason to suppose that neighbors knew or even suspected that bin Laden was present. Unless he openly showed himself there'd be no reason to suspect that. There are lots of people, and lots of types of people, who have profitable business on the frontier, much of it illicit. It wouldn't be that uncommon for them to build a secure bolt-hole in a neighborhood off the frontier. The natural conclusion would be that a drug dealer or smuggler was setting up a rear area retreat. Once that assumption was made there'd be little incentive to inquire further.

omarali50
05-10-2011, 03:44 AM
NO drug dealer or smuggler could be living in that place without the police and the security agencies being exactly aware of who he was, what his business was and who visited him and so on. Neighbors, yes, they might not know, but in most cases, some will be nosy enough to know. Servants seem to know a lot about the neighborhood.
No, the way it worked was that someone in the security agencies let it be known that this house was "agency business". May even have hinted that some "good jihadis" (Haqqani family, Daood Ibrahim, whatever) were hiding there. That would do it. Neighbors (according to friends in the Pakistani police) all regarded it as an "agency building". THey certainly did NOT know that Bin Laden was there. Most likely, neither did the fluctuating ranks of lower level agency people (such areas in Pakistan are crawling with FIU, MI, ISI, special branch and whatnot, Fuchs is completely off when he imagines its like those trains in the pictures). But someone put him there and spread the notion that it was an agency site and therefore protected from on high.
I have no idea how long he was there. My police friend made no comment about that.

SWJ Blog
05-10-2011, 10:52 PM
The Lawfulness of Killing Bin Ladin (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/the-lawfulness-of-killing-bin/)

Entry Excerpt:

The Lawfulness of Killing Bin Ladin
by Butch Bracknell

Much has been made of the recent revelations that Osama bin Ladin was unarmed at the moment he was killed by U.S. special operations forces in close quarters battle. Let us put this issue to rest with dispatch, once and for all: Killing bin Ladin was not an extrajudicial execution, a murder, or a war crime. It was a combat engagement lawful under U.S. and international legal authority – full stop.

Two rationales undergird the lawful killing an enemy combatant, including an unlawful combatant such as the transnational terrorist bin Ladin: self-defense and jus in bello.

- The self-defense justification usually permits a “friendly” combatant to engage an opponent with deadly force when the combatant believes his or her life, or the life of other members of his or her unit or other authorized protected persons (for example, certain noncombatants present in the area, such as ordinary citizens, children, aid workers, or missionaries), is endangered by the hostile acts or intent of an opponent. Whether the opponent is armed is relevant to the self-defense analysis, but does not solely settle the issue. The key factor is whether a combatant reasonably believes his or her life (or the life of a protected person) to be in danger; for example, an enemy combatant may appear to have a weapon, even though he is unarmed. If the friendly combatant reasonably fears for his life or that of a protected person, deadly force is permitted and the defensive killing is not unlawful.

Even so, discussion of the location of bin Ladin’s weapon and whether he might have been wearing a suicide vest are utterly irrelevant: engaging bin Ladin with deadly force is most appropriately viewed as grounded on the second rationale: jus in bello.

- The law pertaining to the conduct of hostilities (jus in bello), which has developed since antiquity and includes certain provisions of the modern Geneva and Hague conventions, permits the sanctioned killing of an opponent in an armed conflict, regardless of whether he is armed at the moment he is engaged. So long as the opponent meets the minimum criteria to be regarded as a combatant (even an unlawful combatant), he may be engaged with deadly force, even if he is separated from his weapon. He may be killed while sleeping, eating, taking a shower, cleaning his weapon, meditating, or standing on his head. It is his status as an enemy combatant, not his activity at the moment of engagement, which is dispositive.

Osama bin Ladin was an enemy combatant – again, full stop. His status as a virtual enemy of the United States is grounded on several factors: his declaration of war (fatwa) by Al Qaeda, of which he was the nominal chief, against the United States; the Congressional Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) of September 18, 2001 (Public Law 107-40); and, most likely, declaration of a state of hostilities (essentially, a state of “war”) by the President against an opposing belligerent: Al Qaeda, its footsoldiers, and its leaders. The qualifier “most likely” indicates that if the President has, in fact, declared Al Qaeda to be a hostile, belligerent force, the designation probably would be classified and non-public. It is also superfluous, as Congress supplied the necessary authority in the AUMF to make combat actions against Al Qaeda lawful. They described a category of combatants who may be targeted by U.S. forces, and Osama bin Ladin fell squarely into that category more precisely than any other person in the world. Targeting bin Ladin was based on bin Ladin simply being bin Ladin: his conduct as he stared down the wrong end of an MP-5 was immaterial.

Once designated a hostile enemy combatant, there are only two ways a combatant can be exempted from lawful targeting: by manifesting a clear and unequivocal intent to surrender, and by becoming wounded or otherwise incapacitated and incapable of resistance (hors d’combat). There is no evidence bin Ladin was wounded prior to administration of the lethal force which ended his life. Moreover, U.S. forces engaged in armed conflict are under no obligation to give an enemy combatant a chance to surrender; the enemy combatant must practically force his surrender on the U.S. force by manifesting it clearly, timely, and in a manner which enables U.S. forces to discontinue the use of lethal force. At this instant, a shield of legal protection descends around him, and U.S. forces are obligated to treat him humanely and consistent with the laws of armed conflict pertaining to detainees. Until the shield is present, triggered by manifest surrender, it is absent. Without the shield that only he could initiate through his surrenderous conduct, bin Ladin remained a legitimate target and was treated so by the assaulting U.S. force.

Bin Ladin’s death was a triumph for the American intelligence community and the armed forces and provides, at long last, some solace to the victims of 9/11 and Al Qaeda’s other terroristic acts. His death will likely prove to be a strategic gain, and it eliminates a continuing threat to Americans at home and her citizens and forces abroad. It also was completely sanctioned under U.S. and international law. The intellectual energy spent obsessing and hand-wringing over bin Ladin’s death would be better spent on less clear-cut law of armed conflict issues facing the nation and the international community.

Butch Bracknell is a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps. A career military lawyer with tours in Bosnia, Iraq, and Afghanistan, he is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington, DC.



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/the-lawfulness-of-killing-bin/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
05-12-2011, 09:04 PM
The SEAL Who Shot Bin Laden (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/the-seal-who-shot-bin-laden/)

Entry Excerpt:


The Navy Seal Who Killed Osama Bin Laden (http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/8e464776e6/the-navy-seal-who-killed-osama-bin-laden) from Rob Riggle (http://www.funnyordie.com/rob_riggle)


--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/the-seal-who-shot-bin-laden/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
05-12-2011, 09:30 PM
CTC Sentinel on the Death of Usama bin Ladin (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/ctc-sentinel-on-the-death-of-u/)

Entry Excerpt:

West Point's Combating Terrorism Center (http://www.ctc.usma.edu/) has released a Special Issue of the CTC Sentinel (http://www.ctc.usma.edu/publications/sentinel)on the death of Usama bin Ladin. The new issue can be found here (http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/CTCSentinel-UBLSI-2011.pdf).

The Special Issue contains the following articles:

- Bin Ladin’s Killing and its Effect on Al-Qa`ida: What Comes Next? By Bruce Hoffman
- Special Operations Forces and the Raid Against Bin Ladin: Policymaker Considerations in Combating Terrorism by Michele L. Malvesti and Frances Fragos Townsend
- How Bin Ladin’s Death Will Affect Al-Qa`ida’s Regional Franchises by Camille Tawil
- The Impact of Bin Ladin’s Death on AQAP in Yemen by Gregory D. Johnsen
- The Impact of Bin Ladin’s Death on AQIM in North Africa by Geoff D. Porter
- Bin Ladin’s Death Through the Lens of Al-Qa`ida’s Confidential Secretary by Nelly Lahoud
- Bin Ladin’s Location Reveals Limits of Liaison Intelligence Relationships by Charles Faddis
- What the Experts Say... With Juan C. Zarate, Mark Kimmitt, Elliott Abrams, Michael F. Walker, Frank Taylor, Rohan Gunaratna, Dell L. Dailey and Thomas W. O’Connell



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/ctc-sentinel-on-the-death-of-u/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

motorfirebox
05-15-2011, 10:55 AM
What do you guys think of the reported pornography found at the compound? Real, or an attempt to discredit OBL? I can see it going either way, honestly--I have no problem believing that hardcore zealots are prone to secretly violating their own strictures, but it's also a lot of bang for very few bucks in terms of de-martyring.

omarali50
05-15-2011, 02:10 PM
There were a lot of males in that compound. It would be abnormal not to find SOME pornography. On the other hand, if this is a PR effort, its wasted. Those who dont like Bin Laden will make fun of this too, those who support Bin Laden are sure its a lie. Either way it doesnt count for much.

Hacksaw
05-16-2011, 01:15 PM
There were a lot of males in that compound. It would be abnormal not to find SOME pornography. On the other hand, if this is a PR effort, its wasted. Those who dont like Bin Laden will make fun of this too, those who support Bin Laden are sure its a lie. Either way it doesnt count for much.

absolutely... I hope we aren't that amateurish

SWJ Blog
05-19-2011, 07:00 PM
State Legal Adviser Koh defends legality of bin Laden raid (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/state-legal-adviser-koh-defend/)

Entry Excerpt:

In my Foreign Policy column (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/13/this_week_at_war_send_in_the_lawyers) from last Friday, I noted the muted defense given by Obama administration officials on the legality of the raid against Osama bin Laden. A wide range of international observers had questioned the raid’s legality and the U.S. government seemed restrained in its response to this criticism. In my column I noted the silence of Harold Koh, the U.S. State Department’s legal adviser, who in early 2010 had delivered a long speech defending the government’s use of lethal drone strikes against irregular adversaries against whom the United States is in a state of “armed conflict.”

Today at the Opinio Juris blog, Koh finally made (http://opiniojuris.org/2011/05/19/the-lawfulness-of-the-us-operation-against-osama-bin-laden/)the U.S. government’s case. He quoted heavily from his 2010 drone speech. He also appended some analysis on the legal requirements for completing a battlefield surrender, which should be of interest to all infantrymen.

In my column I surmised that the purpose of the administration’s reticence to thoroughly defend the legality of the bin Laden raid was to avoid declaring a checklist of requirements defining armed conflict status that might end up restricting the legal flexibility of the government against future irregular adversaries. Koh did not appear to add any disclaimers in this regard, so it remains to be seen whether some “lawfare” adversary of the United States will use Koh’s blog post against the government in the future.

Nothing follows.



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/state-legal-adviser-koh-defend/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
05-25-2011, 07:00 PM
Post OBL: Afghanistan, Pakistan and South-Central Asia Strategy (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/post-obl-afghanistan-pakistan/)

Entry Excerpt:

Via e-mail from the Center for a New American Security (http://www.cnas.org/) (CNAS) - New CNAS Report (http://www.cnas.org/node/6418) offers Afghanistan, Pakistan and South-Central Asia strategy post-Osama bin Laden.


"The United States is at a strategic inflection point in South and Central Asia. The death of Osama bin Laden, together with the projected transition to a smaller U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, presents a new opportunity for the United States to protect its enduring interests in the region. In Beyond Afghanistan: A Regional Security Strategy for South and Central Asia, CNAS authors Lieutenant General David W. Barno (http://www.cnas.org/node/4418), USA (Ret.), Andrew Exum (http://www.cnas.org/node/737) and Matthew Irvine (http://www.cnas.org/node/5344) identify key priorities for the United States and the key components of a regional strategy in light of fast-changing current events." Beyond Afghanistan: A Regional Security Strategy for South and Central Asia (http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_BeyondAfghanistan_BarnoExumIrvine_1.pdf) - Full PDF



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/05/post-obl-afghanistan-pakistan/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
06-05-2011, 02:40 PM
Current Books on Pakistan, Shiism, and Saudi Arabia: Thinking Beyond Usama Bin Laden (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/current-books-on-pakistan-shii/)

Entry Excerpt:

Current Books on Pakistan, Shiism, and Saudi Arabia: Thinking Beyond Usama Bin Laden
by Youssef Aboul-Enein

Download the Full Article: Current Books on Pakistan, Shiism, and Saudi Arabia: Thinking Beyond Usama Bin Laden (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/786-abouleneim.pdf)

I spend a significant amount of time conducting seminars on Islam, Islamist Political Theories, and Militant Islamist Groups to units deploying to the Middle East, as well as to leaders attending the National Defense University. Part of the benefits of teaching, is a requirement to keep current on books recently published about the region. I hope to give you an overview of books I enjoyed and others that were much more challenging and do not garner my immediate recommendation. Three current books will be featured in this review essay, one each on Pakistan, Shiism, and Saudi Arabia. Let us begin with a book that gets my vote as required reading for 2011, Anatol Lieven’s new book on Pakistan.

Download the Full Article: Current Books on Pakistan, Shiism, and Saudi Arabia: Thinking Beyond Usama Bin Laden (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/786-abouleneim.pdf)

Commander Aboul-Enein is author of “Militant Islamist Ideology: Understanding the Global Threat,” (Naval Institute Press, 2010). He is Adjunct Islamic Studies Chair at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) and Senior Counter-Terrorism Advisor at the Joint Intelligence Task Force for Combating Terrorism. Commander Aboul-Enein wishes to thank the National Defense University Librarians for directing him to a few of these books. Good teaching demands great librarians. Finally he wishes to thank his ICAF colleague CAPT Chan Swallow, USN for his edits that enhanced this review and more importantly his discussion of these books.



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/current-books-on-pakistan-shii/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

Bill Moore
06-15-2011, 06:21 AM
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 -- 10:32 PM EDT
-----


Pakistan Arrests C.I.A. Informants Who Aided Bin Laden Raid

Pakistan’s top military spy agency has arrested some of the Pakistani informants who fed information to the Central Intelligence Agency in the months leading up to the raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, according to American officials.

Pakistan’s detention of five C.I.A. informants, including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in the weeks before the raid, is the latest evidence of the fractured relationship between the United States and Pakistan. It comes at a time when the Obama administration is seeking Pakistan’s support in brokering an endgame in the war in neighboring Afghanistan.

The fate of the C.I.A. informants arrested in Pakistan is unclear, but American officials said that the C.I.A. director, Leon E. Panetta, raised the issue when he travelled to Islamabad last week to meet with Pakistani military and intelligence officers.


Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/world/asia/15policy.html?emc=na

davidbfpo
06-15-2011, 09:41 AM
Bill,

Thanks for posting that. It just shows that patience will be rewarded.

On the 4th May 2011 I noted a small detail in The Guardian's report on the OBL raid:
Note the nearest neighbour's house was occupied by a Pakistani Army major.

The fuller quote from the article:
But there was no sign of life from a nearby property, about 50 metres from Bin Laden's back wall, with a high perimeter wall and two watchtowers. Neighbours said it had been built three years ago by a man whose family has long owned property in the area. The nameplate read: Major Amir Aziz. Locals said he was a serving Pakistan army officer. Despite repeated rings on the doorbell, he refused to answer.

The latest article has:
..including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound..

If all true then it makes the point human sources have a vital role even when hi-tech techniques are available.

SWJ Blog
06-17-2011, 03:30 PM
Molding Perceptions: American Engagement with the Media after the Bin Laden Raid (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/molding-perceptions-american-e/)

Entry Excerpt:

Molding Perceptions: American Engagement with the Media after the Bin Laden Raid
by Marno de Boer

Immediately after the successful conclusion of the raid on Osama Bin Laden’s compound the United States government and its agencies fed the press and public alike with information about the event. Two trends stand out in this information flow; the rapidity with which it was delivered, and the fact that much of it later turned out to be incorrect. While it is not yet possible to determine whether this was the result of a deliberate policy, it was highly successful in getting a favorable story across during the first few days after the action, the period crucial for forming people’s perceptions. In this way, the American media policy, while in some ways an evolution of prior engagements with the media, also began to show a likening to the ones successfully adopted by regular and irregular opponents alike in the last decade. This article argues that this new policy was fairly successful and might be a worthwhile model for dealing with the press during future events.



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/06/molding-perceptions-american-e/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
08-01-2011, 04:00 PM
Getting bin Laden (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/08/getting-bin-laden/)

Entry Excerpt:

Getting bin Laden: What Happened that Night in Abbottabad (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/08/08/110808fa_fact_schmidle?currentPage=all) by Nicholas Schmidle, The New Yorker. BLUF: "... Obama and his advisers went into a second room, down the hall, where others involved in the raid—including logisticians, crew chiefs, and SEAL alternates—had assembled. Obama presented the team with a Presidential Unit Citation and said, “Our intelligence professionals did some amazing work. I had fifty-fifty confidence that bin Laden was there, but I had one-hundred-per-cent confidence in you guys. You are, literally, the finest small-fighting force that has ever existed in the world.” The raiding team then presented the President with an American flag that had been on board the rescue Chinook. Measuring three feet by five, the flag had been stretched, ironed, and framed. The SEALs and the pilots had signed it on the back; an inscription on the front read, “From the Joint Task Force Operation Neptune’s Spear, 01 May 2011: ‘For God and country. Geronimo.’ ”"



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2011/08/getting-bin-laden/) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
08-01-2011, 07:15 PM
A well-written article from the New Yorker magazine, hat tip to Abu M; nothing startling IMHO:http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/08/08/110808fa_fact_schmidle?currentPage=all

(Added later)

A review which highlights:
The raid on Osama bin Laden’s hideout in Pakistan was a mission to kill him, and there was “never any question” he would be captured alive, one of those directly involved has claimed.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/8676157/Osama-Bin-Laden-mission-was-to-shoot-to-kill-from-the-start.html

davidbfpo
08-01-2011, 07:23 PM
The BBC's Security Correspondent, Gordon Corera, did two radio programmes a month ago and I should have added them here.

Link to BBC News article, Part One:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14115327

Link to BBC podcasts, Part One:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b012ftrq

Link to BBC News article, Part Two:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14190032

Link to BBC podcasts, Part Two:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b012llrx

davidbfpo
08-10-2011, 02:00 PM
A puzzling story by Dr. RJ Hillhouse, which appeared in today's UK press and her blogsite is:http://www.thespywhobilledme.com/the_spy_who_billed_me/2011/08/bin-laden-turned-in-by-informant-courier-was-cover-story.html#comments

Which opens with:
Sources in the intelligence community tell me that after years of trying and one bureaucratically insane near-miss in Yemen, the US government killed OBL because a Pakistani intelligence officer came forward to collect the approximately $25 million reward from the State Department's Rewards for Justice program.

The informant was a walk-in.

Refreshing to see this walk-in had a better reaction than the 'Underwear Bomber' information given by his father in Lagos. Walk-in sources are the gems.

AdamG
08-14-2011, 10:15 PM
Anyone surprised? Anyone? Buehler? Anyone?


(Reuters) - Pakistan gave China access to the previously unknown U.S. "stealth" helicopter that crashed during the commando raid that killed Osama bin Laden in May despite explicit requests from the CIA not to, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/14/us-pakistan-china-usa-idUSTRE77D2BT20110814

SWJ Blog
05-03-2012, 06:50 PM
Letters from Abbottabad: Bin Laden Sidelined? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/letters-from-abbottabad-bin-laden-sidelined)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/letters-from-abbottabad-bin-laden-sidelined) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
08-30-2012, 10:07 AM
Revelations on the Killing of Osama bin Laden (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/revelations-on-the-killing-of-osama-bin-laden)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/revelations-on-the-killing-of-osama-bin-laden) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
09-15-2012, 09:40 AM
Mark Urban, a BBC journalist and ex-Army officer, who has written several books on the SAS and Northern Ireland, has written a review of 'No Easy Day' by Mark Jones:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19606623

A few of his comments:
What emerges is a vivid portrait of the world in which these people lived, going out on raids so many times to kill or capture suspected terrorists that they all began to merge.

This puzzles me, partly as Iraq is not Afghanistan:
There are signs that the special operations campaign in Afghanistan, notwithstanding the Bin Laden raid in neighbouring Pakistan, has been markedly less successful in reducing the wider pattern of violence than it was in Iraq.

I expect some here will hold far stronger opinions on the book's publication, Urban concludes:
His book, understandably enough, focuses on the door-kickers' view, the dedication of those willing to go up against suicide bombers and extremist leaders, as well as the losses suffered by his comrades.

He has done a service to openness and accountability in writing it.

davidbfpo
09-15-2012, 09:44 AM
This Daily Mail article appears a few months ago, I don't recall posting it, but it does provide some context for the previous post on SOF in Iraq:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2160337/Top-secret-report-reveals-Al-Qaeda-executioners-captured-ingenious-SAS--using-Bisto-granules.html

I expect the story was "spin" and was carefully vetted pre-publication.

Wyatt
09-17-2012, 02:52 AM
And by service to openness he did a great disservice to his country, fellow servicemen and word.

Ken White
09-17-2012, 03:35 AM
And by service to openness he did a great disservice to his country, fellow servicemen and word.Selective "Openness" in service to self isn't of use to anyone else in any event...

Bob's World
09-17-2012, 08:55 AM
This author is not alone in his sins.

Someone within the SOF community felt compelled to leak that it was "SEAL Team Six" on this particular raid. There was no need to focus attention on that one organization.

Someone has made "I killed bin Laden" a major platform point in an election bid.

Did a guy actually on the mission seek to grab a little for himself as well? Yes, and he is wrong for that. So are those much higher than him who gave up information or exaggerated their roles as well.

I would like to see us chalk this up as "we screwed this up." See us learn from that and move on with a new mindset that moved these types of missions off the front pages and off the top of our list of approaches for dealing with such problems, and into the shadows of rare, limited operations that are as much urban legend as stated policy.

Instead we will most likely crucify this one operator and blithely carry on as before.

Fuchs
09-17-2012, 10:51 AM
Someone within the SOF community felt compelled to leak that it was "SEAL Team Six" on this particular raid. There was no need to focus attention on that one organization.

Someone has made "I killed bin Laden" a major platform point in an election bid.

That's a grammar error. These " " signs are (in such a context) reserved for actual quotes, not for conjecture. You won't find a speech where he said that or a written piece of his with this line.

The team employed on the mission was one of many that could have been sent. They were exchangeable and did not do anything special, facing negligible or no resistance.


It was a policy decision, he had made a campaign promise to do such a decision if the opportunity arises and he did it. Politicians need to brag about such things, Bush even bragged about things he didn't do and would have bragged endlessly (if not demanding a statue in Washington DC) if he had given the order to kill UBL.

A head of government bragging about policy and decisionmaking success is entirely normal, while (former) soldiers cashing in on wartime secrets before the very same war is over is not usual.

Ken White
09-17-2012, 02:38 PM
but that does not make it dignified -- or right.

Fuchs
09-17-2012, 04:22 PM
but that does not make it dignified -- or right.

Remember, politics is just as warfare relative.

A crappy army wins against an even crappier one.
A crappy politician wins against an crappier one.

gute
09-19-2012, 02:32 AM
It was a policy decision, he had made a campaign promise to do such a decision if the opportunity arises and he did it. Politicians need to brag about such things, Bush even bragged about things he didn't do and would have bragged endlessly (if not demanding a statue in Washington DC) if he had given the order to kill UBL.

A head of government bragging about policy and decisionmaking success is entirely normal, while (former) soldiers cashing in on wartime secrets before the very same war is over is not usual.

My friend you are totally off base on your first point. President Bush would not have demanded a statue. He is a fairly humble guy. I don't recall him bragging other than the time he said 'bring it on' and that's not bragging. The mission accomplished banner was put there by the navy, not the WH. The one thing I always respected about the Bush Administration - they did not make excuses. Look, I'm not saying it was a stellar eight years, but I disagree with the idea of Bush saying, "Look at me, look at me" - dodging shoes - yes.

Hey, President Obama gave the order so it happened on his watch and he gets to claim it. If anyone for second thought he wasn't go to brag than they need to flush out their headgear.

I read the book and enjoyed it. I don't think it's any big deal, but agree with others that the identity of the unit should not have been mentioned i the first place. I don't recall the outrage over the book Fearless about Seal Team 6 operator Adam Brown and his death in Afghanistan. Okay, the author is not a Seal, but what's the difference. The author writes how several of his Brown's teammates were later killed in the helo crash that happened a couple of days after the OBL raid. I seem to recall the pentagon saying the Seal killed in the bird were regular run of mill Seals and not team six guys.

ganulv
09-19-2012, 03:35 AM
The author writes how several of his Brown's teammates were later killed in the helo crash that happened a couple of days after the OBL raid. I seem to recall the pentagon saying the Seal killed in the bird were regular run of mill Seals and not team six guys.

A number of outlets reported otherwise (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14430735). I hope whatever they were put into the air to do was worth risking their loss. It would seem to me to be a hell of a waste to send a crew of guys meant to protect the U.S. from true terror threats after some mid-level Taliban commander.

Fuchs
09-19-2012, 09:27 AM
My friend you are totally off base on your first point. President Bush would not have demanded a statue. He is a fairly humble guy. I don't recall him bragging other than the time he said 'bring it on' and that's not bragging.

You probably did not identify his bragging because you agreed with him.
He bragged a lot about his past as a NG pilot, for example.
He also bragged about cutting taxes - all the while he did increase the budget (nominal, real and in %GDP) and create a deficit.

The "humble, nice guy one would like to drink a beer with (despite him being a dry alcoholic!) story is an obvious construction of an image. That's a creation of political advisors, sown by surrogates, PR stunts, books and partisan pundits.

gute
09-19-2012, 04:53 PM
You probably did not identify his bragging because you agreed with him.
He bragged a lot about his past as a NG pilot, for example.
He also bragged about cutting taxes - all the while he did increase the budget (nominal, real and in %GDP) and create a deficit.

The "humble, nice guy one would like to drink a beer with (despite him being a dry alcoholic!) story is an obvious construction of an image. That's a creation of political advisors, sown by surrogates, PR stunts, books and partisan pundits.

Again, I disagree. Bush did not brag about being a National Guard pilot. Talking about it because you are asked about it is not bragging. Bragging about cutting taxes? It was a policy decision. It wasn't cutting taxes that got us into this mess its the spending.

Did you ever think for one second that maybe, just maybe the dude hit a point in his life where he wanted to be a new person? Man, I thought I was cynical. I think you have BDS - Bush Derangement Syndrome. Here's an explanation so you know what you have: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_Derangement_Syndrome

We had deficits/massive debt long before Bush.

Fuchs
09-19-2012, 05:27 PM
We had deficits/massive debt long before Bush.

Earth to gute: Bush inherited a budget with surplus, his first own budget turned that into a deficit.
And as I mentioned: GWB increased spending in %GDP. He worsened revenue, spending and deficit. No white spot on his fiscal vest anywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Revenue_and_Expense_to_GDP_Chart_1993_-_2008.png

Federal expenses in %GDP were shrinking during the Clinton-Congress combo, but GWB-Congress combo led immediately to higher expenses and drastically less revenues. Same story with Reagan and Bush 41.

gute
09-20-2012, 01:45 AM
Earth to gute: Bush inherited a budget with surplus, his first own budget turned that into a deficit.
And as I mentioned: GWB increased spending in %GDP. He worsened revenue, spending and deficit. No white spot on his fiscal vest anywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Revenue_and_Expense_to_GDP_Chart_1993_-_2008.png

Federal expenses in %GDP were shrinking during the Clinton-Congress combo, but GWB-Congress combo led immediately to higher expenses and drastically less revenues. Same story with Reagan and Bush 41.

Here is a rebuttalhttp://www.craigsteiner.us/articles/16

We can go back-n-forth on this for days.

Fuchs
09-20-2012, 02:03 PM
That article is founded on the same wrong (non-)economics that assert governments (or, for example Medicare) are bankrupt because they don't have the means to pay for future obligation NOW.


We should go back to Bin laden, though.
Fig leaf:

From Duffel Blog (http://www.duffelblog.com/2012/09/navy-seals-to-infiltrate-libya-in-secret-mission-reports-major-book-publisher/):


A major publisher of Navy SEAL memoirs reported today that a U.S. retaliation strike is “imminent” in Libya. Following the news stories of the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, Random Day spokesman Bill Klein stated that several of their company’s clients called with a preliminary manuscript for possible books.

“The first to contact us was Steve Faulkner,” Klein said. “He is with DEVGRU… you know, the SEAL Team Six guys. Anyway, he called us up late at night and said he wanted to present a new book idea for his autobiography, which would include several chapters on raids against terrorist camps in the Libyan desert.”

Klein said the conversation was cut short because Faulkner stated that he would be leaving the next morning and would be gone for awhile, possibly for several weeks. “OPSEC is so important to these guys,” said Klein, “so usually when a world event happens and they have to go respond, they’ll have to quickly send us a manuscript for their next book idea before they get on a plane to go and do an op.”

:D

gute
09-20-2012, 08:50 PM
That article is founded on the same wrong (non-)economics that assert governments (or, for example Medicare) are bankrupt because they don't have the means to pay for future obligation NOW.


We should go back to Bin laden, though.
Fig leaf:

From Duffel Blog (http://www.duffelblog.com/2012/09/navy-seals-to-infiltrate-libya-in-secret-mission-reports-major-book-publisher/):



:D

Of course it is:rolleyes:

I agree, let's get back to the OBL book:)

davidbfpo
01-18-2013, 04:03 PM
That Hollywood has made a blockbuster 'Zero Dark Thirty' based on official help is not a great surprise (honest). Along comes a FOI advocate and we get 'the Vickers Transcript', which:
....reveals the deep uncertainty among intelligence analysts over whether it was actually bin Laden hiding in the Abbottabad compound, and it provides the most complete and specific inside history of the creation, planning, training, and approval of the U.S. strike that killed the man behind the September 11 attacks.

Mr Vickers being:
..the undersecretary of defense for intelligence and DOD's highest-ranking civilian intelligence official.

Link, which includes the transcript:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/17/the_dynamite_pentagon_interview_behind_zero_dark_t hirty?page=full

There is a lot to read on 'The National Security Archive' entry, plunder for outsiders I expect:http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB410/

davidbfpo
01-21-2013, 10:44 AM
One question commentators are asking is what the relationship is between AQIM and al Qaeda’s senior leadership (AQSL) in Pakistan, under Ayman al Zawahiri....But the documents captured from Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad do reveal communications between AQIM and AQSL that extend over the span of four years, and include discussion of strategic and operational issues. While it is possible that after bin Laden’s death, when Ayman al Zawahiri became AQSL’s emir, these communications were crippled or otherwise ceased, there’s no reason that this should be our a priori assumption.

Link:http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb-and-al-qaedas-senior-leadership/

SWJ Blog
01-23-2013, 09:16 AM
Book Review: Inside Al-Qaeda and the Taliban: Beyond Bin Laden and 9/11 (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/book-review-inside-al-qaeda-and-the-taliban-beyond-bin-laden-and-911)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/book-review-inside-al-qaeda-and-the-taliban-beyond-bin-laden-and-911) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

davidbfpo
06-14-2015, 05:04 PM
Hamid Hussain a regular contributor comments:
As usual, after Seymour Hersh’s piece about OBL killing, many good friends asked few questions. I thought Hersh’s story will get some traction for a while but it didn’t last even two weeks. Anyway, my two cents below

Due to size his commentary is in two parts.

Four weeks ago, veteran investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published account of killing of Osama bin Ladin (OBL) in London Review of Books. Hersh disputes official versions of Pakistan and United States and claims a massive cover up. Hersh is a well known investigative journalist and his two most important works were uncovering of My Li massacre in Vietnam and prisoner torture at Abu Gharaib prison. However, some of his most recent works especially imminent U.S. attack on Iran proved to be incorrect. In his recent work, Hersh’s admit that he doesn’t have any conclusive proof about his conclusions but believes his sources.

Hersh’s main sources of information include one retired senior U.S. intelligence official who only had knowledge about the initial intelligence about OBL and two consultants to Special Operations Command. Hersh gives opinion of few others especially The New York Times reporter Carlotta Gall that she was told by a Pakistani official that Pasha knew about the raid and a Pakistani author Imtiaz Gul’s statement that four Pakistani intelligence operatives told him that they believed that Pakistani military must have knowledge of the operation although they had no proof. Hersh is not on a solid ground but rather on thin ice with these sources. However, there are many aspects of Hersh’s story which are true and he raises many genuine questions which are still unanswered. Answers of such questions about covert operations usually take decades but we are living in the age of Julian Assange, Private Bradley (now Chelsea) Manning and Edward Snowden and hope that we may find answers sooner than later.

Hersh’s main conclusions are;

- CIA learned about OBL from a former senior Pakistani intelligence officer who betrayed the secret for the $25 million reward.

One retired Brigadier/Major General rank officer who served with Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) settled with his family in United States around that time period. However, many Pakistanis including army officers migrate to United States and Canada and though there is suspicion about this particular officer but no one is sure. All the evidence suggests that no one was sure about the identity of OBL and if true, it is most likely that this officer had some suspicion and he shared this with Americans. It is not clear whether he met Americans in Islamabad or in Dubai? I’m pretty sure that this officer had retired and was not serving at ISI at the time he contacted Americans. There is some confusion about the events as Americans used some retired Pakistani army and police officers for surveillance of OBL compound. However, these officers had no idea about the identity of the resident of the compound. It has been suggested that this team was also moved out of Pakistan just before the launching of the operation.

- OBL was prisoner of ISI since 2006. He was in Hindu Kush mountains from 2001 to 2006 and ISI got hold of him by bribing local tribal people. However, Saudi Arabia paid for his upkeep. Pakistan wanted to keep OBL as a hostage to ensure that al-Qaeda and Taliban stayed in their own lane. If they deviated then Pakistan would hand over OBL to United States for some kind of a deal in future. Saudi Arabia wanted to keep OBL out of U.S. reach for fear of their own connection with OBL. Pakistanis were worried that Washington may learn from Saudis while Saudis were fearful that Washington may learn from Pakistanis.

If we believe this version of events then ISI officials even if small in numbers from 2006 to 2011, some local tribesmen and members of Saudi royal family as well as U.S. officials were in the loop since 2006. Even if we keep to bare minimum considering compartmentalization of intelligence apparatus, it will still include at least several dozen individuals from three different countries. This is very unlikely and the weakest link is local tribesmen. Tribesmen are selling the information to anyone who is holding the purse. Intelligence agencies of many western countries, Afghanistan, India, Saudi Arabia and Iran get all kind of information from local sources. After getting money from Pakistan, these tribesmen would be running to everybody and his cousin to get the mother load of cash for OBL information. OBL never trusted tribesmen on both sides of the Durand Line.

If Pakistanis were holding OBL as an insurance against al-Qaeda and Taliban attacks on Pakistani targets then this theory doesn’t hold any water. In fact from year 2006 to 2011, Pakistani security establishment saw a string of very high profile attacks from al-Qaeda as well as Taliban. The list includes bombing of an army recruiting center at Dargai in November 2006, bombing of a bus carrying employees of ISI in Rawalpindi in September 2007, bombing of a mess of Special Services Group (SSG) at Tarbela in September 2007, bombing of ISI regional headquarters at Peshawar in Novemebr 2009, bombing of ISI office in Multan in December 2009, bombing of police headquarters and ISI office in Lahore in May 2009, attack on army’s General Head Quarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi when General Kayani was in his office in October 2009 and in December 2009 militants attacked a mosque in cantonment area of Rawalpindi killing several army officers including a Major General, a Brigadier and two Lieutenant Colonels. In addition, a serving Lieutenant General (Surgeon General), former commander of SSG Major General Amir Faisal Alvi and Major General Muhammad Bilal were assassinated by militants. In a two weeks time period, militants targeted three serving Brigadiers in Islamabad area killing Brigadier Moinuddin Ahmad while Brigadier Waqar Ahmad Malik and Brigadier Sohail Ahmad survived the bullets of the assassins. These are examples of only high profile attacks on military installations and individuals and does not include countless bombings that killed hundreds of policemen, paramilitary forces and civilians. These facts simply demolish the myth that OBL was parked in Abbottabad by Pakistani army brass as leverage against al-Qaeda or Taliban.


- Then Pakistan Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and then DGISI Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha cooperated with Americans in operation. They provided blood sample of OBL to Americans to confirm identity of OBL, provided all details of the compound, ensured no resistance, made sure that the SEALS helicopters reached Abbottabad without triggering any alarms and provided a liaison office for CIA at Tarbela Ghazi; a site of ISI covert operations. Pakistani cooperation in the operation included allowing two Chinook helicopters to park at ISI covert operation base at Tarbela Ghazi, a Pakistani ISI liaison officer accompanied SEAL team in helicopter from Afghanistan and ISI guards of the compound were told to leave the compound as soon as they heard the noise of helicopter rotors.

If we accept this version then we have to accept that several dozen officers from the rank of army chief to sepoys guarding the compound were in the loop. Tarbela is where Special Services Group (SSG) has a base and to my knowledge there is no specific site at Tarbela for any activities or training of ISI. At different time periods, some small American technical teams were embedded with Pakistanis troops for signal intelligence and intercepting militant communications. If Pakistanis had already arranged everything for the Americans from confirming OBLs identity with blood test, details of the compound, and a safe passage to all helicopters and sending all guards on furlough on the night of operation, do they still need to put an ISI liaison officer on the American chopper probably to give them directions. The man on chopper was a Pushtu speaking American posted with a SEAL outside the compound to speak to locals in their language in case anybody came inquiring about the action. It is most likely that even he didn’t know about the nature of the operation or the identity of OBL until the show was over.

- Kayani only asked the Americans to bring in a small team and make sure to kill OBL. In addition, killing of OBL should be kept secret for about seven days and then a carefully crafted cover story should be released announcing that OBL is killed in a drone strike in Hindu Kush on Afghan side of the border. The reason Pakistan army wanted to use this cover because OBL was a hero to many Pakistanis.

I’m not convinced that Pakistanis wanted to embark on such a complicated course for such a flimsy reason.

- Pasha told Americans that he could not keep OBL in the compound any longer as too many people in Pakistani high command knew about his presence. Head of air defense command and many local commanders were fully briefed by Kayani and Pasha about the whole mission.

Such type of sensitive operation cannot be kept secret if so many people are involved.


(http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n10/seymour-m-hersh/the-killing-of-osama-bin-laden)

davidbfpo
06-14-2015, 05:04 PM
- United Sates was able to get Pakistani cooperation by promising continuation of military aid, providing bullet proof limousines, security guards and housing for ISI leadership.

Pakistan was receiving billions of dollars over a decade and Pakistanis didn’t need to embark on such an adventure. Remainder conclusion about security guards and housing is simply laughable.

- CIA and ISI engaged in public feuds to cover their assess. The outing of name of Islamabad’s CIA station chief Jonathan Banks in December 2010 most likely by ISI was preparation of a cover up months ahead of the OBL operation.

This is really a stretch of imagination. Those who are familiar with U.S.-Pakistani military and intelligence relations of that time period know very well deterioration of relations on several fronts due to policy and personality clashes.

- In the whole operation, only one stray bullet hit knee of OBL’s wife. Nothing was left of OBL’s body except head because SEAL team members shattered it into pieces with rifle fire. This was done before they left Abbottabad because they threw some of the body parts over Hindu Kush mountains during flight.

Facts from various sources do not support this conclusion. One doesn’t need to be an ordnance specialist to figure out how many rounds of ammunition will be needed to shatter a six foot tall human body with rifle fire. If true, then it means that after completing operation, SEALs put in hundreds of bullets in OBL’s body in Abbottabad and then collect all body pieces, put it in a body bag and during the return flight throw these pieces over Hindu Kush therefore by the time they land in Jalalabad nothing is left to bury except bullet ridden head.

- Pakistanis decided to cooperate with Americans when confronted with the news of presence of OBL. After the operation, relations Pakistani-American relations soured but then Pakistanis decided to cooperate because of the threat from ISIS.

When Americans confronted Pakistanis about the presence of OBL, the simple solution for Pakistan was to eliminate him. They could eliminate him and tell the Americans to prove it that it was in fact OBL. Hersh wants us to believe that the powerful ISI that is allegedly supporting every bad guy of the planet is not able to eliminate one of its own prisoners. Hersh’s assertion that Pakistanis decided to embrace Americans again because of the rise of ISIS in Pakistan is stretching the truth to the extreme. No one with even rudimentary knowledge about Pakistan believes this claim. There is no evidence of any significant ISIS presence in Pakistan let alone Pakistan army’s fear to a level that they came running back to Americans.


The only Pakistani source which Hersh used is former DGISI Lieutenant General ® Asad Durrani. Hersh quotes Durrani’s interview with Al Jazeera that ‘it was quite possible that the senior officers of ISI did not know where bin Ladin had been hiding but it was more probable that they did know’. In addition, Durrani agreed with Hersh’s version but confirmed only one aspect that there had been an informant who alerted to OBL’s presence in Abbottabad through second hand sources from Pakistan’s strategic community. To be fair to Durrani, he has given his opinion candidly while acknowledging that he doesn’t have any proof or convincing evidence. Two former DG ISI have given their own take on the subject. Former DG ISI Lieutenant General ® Khwaja Ziauddin is on record stating in an interview on 11 December 2011 that he is convinced that former Director Intelligence Bureau (IB) Brigadier ® Ijaz Shah was responsible for hiding OBL with the knowledge of General Pervez Mussharraf. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DThgijCy9gA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DThgijCy9gA))
Former DG ISI Lieutenant General ® Hamid Gul in an interview on 11 May 2011 with CCN stated that he believes that OBL died from natural death several years ago and Abbottabad operation was a hoax to help Obama’s re-election. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWw6NI0nSLw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWw6NI0nSLw))

Few words about Pakistani officer corps for the uninitiated are must to understand their statements and views. They are products of their society and like society they don’t trust official versions. In addition, society in general tends to view events through a conspiracy lens. The problem for officer corps is the choice between incompetency and failure versus collusion and there is no other option available. In my own conversations with dozens of officers of different ranks the score is fifty-fifty where half believe in incompetency while the other half believe that there was some element of collusion. Their opinion in either case is not supported by any convincing evidence.

I looked at one aspect in detail and that was Pakistan’s airspace issue. If army high command asked army and air force’s air defense to stand down to allow U.S. helicopters for the operation then there must be some clues left in the wake of the operation. A senior Pakistani air force officer who was given access to all records of Pakistan Air Force (PAF) during that time period provided many details. He also had access to the PAF’s inquiry headed by an Air Marshal after the incident. No country can afford a radar coverage capability that covers all areas at all times. Pakistan’s assignment of radars is based on threat perception and categorization as a Vulnerable Area (VA) or Vulnerable Point (VP). Pakistan’s high level radars (2000 feet and above) have extensive and overlapping 24/7 coverage. However, low level radar coverage is severely limited and most of these radars are on eastern border. Pakistan only had two low level radars in the area from where U.S. helicopters entered Pakistani airspace from Afghanistan. PAF's low level radar coverage doesn’t extend to the Abbottabad sector as it is not considered a VA or VP in peacetime.

The flight paths of the two Blackhawks and two Chinooks were not traceable as they had taken a route that was either beyond the low level range of the two radars or were in the shadows of the surrounding hills. Blackhawk has stealth technology but Chinooks don’t have this capability. Chinooks avoided detection by flying in the valleys. In the final assault only the two Blackhawks ventured in while the Chinooks were stationed at Kaladhaka about twenty five miles from Abbottabad.

According to PAF records, both radars were functional, did not pick up any incoming track nor were subjected to jamming. All flight, local or from abroad operate only after filing a proper flight plan with the relevant authority. Any track that cannot be identified is declared as hostile and emergency action initiated. When initial news reached General Kayani, he rang up air force chief to ask if there was any activity of PAF in the area. The only possibility would be night time flying exercise or a search and rescue mission. PAF chief confirmed no such activity and activated the response. A pair of F-16s was scrambled from Sargodha base and specifically ordered by the Air Chief to shoot down any intruders. By the time the scrambled pair reached over Abbottabad the American choppers had already crossed over to Afghanistan. Some have suggested another scenario where Americans informed General Kayani that they were launching an airborne operation in Waziristan against a high value target but then turned towards Abbottabad. In this case, Pakistan should have communication about the flight path of the choppers into Pakistani air space. However, there is no record of any such communication.

Hersh works for New Yorker magazine but its editors were not convinced with the story therefore they didn’t publish it and London Review of Books chose to publish it. Syemour Hersh is a first rate investigative journalist. We need journalist like Seymour Hersh who can hold the feet of those in power to the fire. However, no work is perfect and this story has many holes. It is nature of covert operations that only a glimpse is visible even to the well informed people and there will always be many unexplained chapters. Intelligence agencies create a façade of invincibility but in reality they are large bureaucratic organizations fully capable of royal blunders. Fifty years after the assassination of American President John F. Kennedy, there are many doubters and surely there will be many more in case of killing of OBL.


Link to the original LRB article:http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n10/seymour-m-hersh/the-killing-of-osama-bin-laden


There are a number of previous SWC threads on the OBL raid, including the official Pakistani report on whether there was collusion. They are easily id'd by searching using OBL.






(http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n10/seymour-m-hersh/the-killing-of-osama-bin-laden)

Bill Moore
06-14-2015, 06:33 PM
Hersh has a long history of inaccurate reporting and even lying, which he justified in one case as attempt to force his sources to provide a corrective. Hersh's article is full of inaccuracies, thus it has no credibility, but like many others he suspects there is more to the story regarding our relationship with Pakistan's ISI. I suspect there is more to that story also, but I don't think Hersh identified it. Most people see his article as crap, and only the true conspiracy theorists gave it any cred at all. Heck, the conspiracy about the CIA conducting the 9/11 attacks received more attention than this terrible report.

There is always more to the story, sounds like Hersh is deliberately lying again in an attempt to get government officials to provide a corrective and the rest of the story. However, his version is so laughable it actually backfired.

davidbfpo
05-02-2016, 09:16 AM
Five years on from Bin Laden's demise Frank Gardner, BBC SEcurity Correspondent, has this short review and concludes:
But as the global effort grinds on to defeat or at least contain violent Islamic extremism, the absence of such a charismatic figure as OBL was to his followers makes it unlikely that such a decisive one-off moment as his death five years ago will ever be repeated.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-36127770

davidbfpo
05-04-2016, 08:33 PM
Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this article from Harvard Business Review 'The Former Head of the CIA on Managing the Hunt for Bin Laden' by Leon Panetta and Jeremy Bash:https://hbr.org/2016/05/leadership-lessons-from-the-bin-laden-manhunt

Needless to say one reviewer is not that keen:
The article in .. is a concise example of the self-licking ice cream cone that we call the CIA. Like all great IO pieces, the article starts with a common truth but then descends into a power point promotional piece designed to ensure, nay I say increase funding and mystic to an organization that has eroded into one giant risk adverse platform that will not identify their failures, much less learn from them.
Those of us that have worked and moved in and out of the ether will attest to the sad but inevitable decline of this once strong organization. When budgets are “black” and accomplishments are “classified” it takes real leadership integrity and self-analysis to grow and achieve success. Unfortunately, the field tradecraft of “lie, lie, and launch counter accusations” has crossed the pond and made its way to the 7th floor. Bottom line, we (America) knew where Bin Laden was in the fall of 2008. Enjoy your article.Link:https://theramsdellbrief.com/2016/05/03/bin-laden-5-years-later-and-panettas-latest-in-the-harvard-business-review/

davidbfpo
11-01-2017, 08:08 PM
The CIA's official statement is fully titled: 'November 2017 Release of Abbottabad Compound Material' and one expects some will find items of value after a long time. Minus a number of copyrighted videos.

Link to Statement:https://www.cia.gov/library/abbottabad-compound/index.html

Link to press release:https://www.cia.gov/news-information/press-releases-statements/2017-press-releases-statements/cia-releases-additional-files-recovered-in-ubl-compound-raid.html

The CIA provided FDD’s Long War Journal with an advance copy of many of the files and so they have a number of valuable points to make (I have separately done a post in the AQ-Iran thread).
Link:https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/11/analysis-cia-releases-massive-trove-of-osama-bin-ladens-files.php