South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Dayuhan]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG :eek:, what would be the response?

The exercise area is well away from the disputed area and nowhere near where the US FONOPS have been taking place.

[Maeda Toshiie]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-china-insight-idUSKCN10B10G


'Give them a bloody nose': Xi pressed for stronger South China Sea response

China's leadership is resisting pressure from elements within the military for a more forceful response to an international court ruling against Beijing's claims in the South China Sea, sources said, wary of provoking a clash with the United States.

China refused to participate in the case overseen by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

It denounced the emphatic July 12 ruling in favor of the Philippines as a farce that had no legal basis and part of an anti-China plot cooked up in Washington.

The ruling has been followed in China by a wave of nationalist sentiment, scattered protests and strongly worded editorials in state media.

...


Bunch of chicken hawks. Who would've thunk?

[AdamG]

Why did China fly 'combat patrols' over the Spratly Islands?

In the wake of an international court's ruling rejecting China's claims to disputed territory in the South China Sea, China said the combat exercises were an effort to protect its 'maritime interests.'
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2016/0806/Why-did-China-fly-combat-patrols-over-the-Spratly-Islands



Satellite photographs taken in late July show China appears to have built reinforced aircraft hangars on its holdings in disputed South China Sea islands, a Washington-based research group said.

The hangars on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratly islands have room for any fighter jet in the Chinese air force, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a report on the photographs.

The images have emerged about a month after an international court in The Hague ruled against China's claims in the resource-rich area, a decision rejected by Beijing. China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-images-idUSKCN10K08P


Vietnam has discreetly fortified several of its islands in the disputed South China Sea with new mobile rocket launchers capable of striking China's runways and military installations across the vital trade route, according to Western officials.

Diplomats and military officers told Reuters that intelligence shows Hanoi has shipped the launchers from the Vietnamese mainland into position on five bases in the Spratly islands in recent months, a move likely to raise tensions with Beijing

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-vietnam-idUSKCN10K2NE

[SWJ Blog]

The South China Sea: Containing a Regional Conflict (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-south-china-sea-containing-a-regional-conflict)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AdamG]

As good a thread as any for this observation, on public perceptions and how the Chinese entertainment industry views themselves and their enemies: in WOLF WARRIOR, the Good Guys are no longer Mao's valiant warriors but are all about the high tech and the bad guys are Caucasian former SEALs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqCNF5XttZg

[SWJ Blog]

Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook on Incident in South China Sea (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-on-incident-in-south-china-sea)

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

Tensions in the South China Sea National Intelligence Estimate: The Next Two to Three Years (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/tensions-in-the-south-china-sea-national-intelligence-estimate-the-next-two-to-three-years)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AdamG]

China is preparing for a potential military clash with the United States, according to an article on the Chinese army's website.
"The possibility of war increases" as tensions around North Korea and the South China Sea heat up, Liu Guoshun, a member of the national defense mobilization unit of China's Central Military Commission, wrote on Jan. 20—the same day as President Donald Trump's inauguration.
"'A war within the president's term', 'war breaking out tonight' are not just slogans, but the reality," Liu said in the Chinese commentary piece.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/29/us-china-war-increasingly-a-reality-chinese-army-official-says.html

[AdamG]

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Saturday played down any need for major U.S. military moves in the South China Sea to contend with China's assertive behavior, even as he sharply criticized Beijing for "shredding the trust of nations in the region."
"At this time, we do not see any need for dramatic military moves at all," Mattis told a news conference in Tokyo, stressing that the focus should be on diplomacy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-southchinasea-mattis-idUSKBN15J061

Meanwhile, the Guardian's cup is half-full


China has accused the US of putting the stability of the Asia-Pacific at risk after Donald Trump’s defence secretary said Washington would come to Japan’s defence in the event of a conflict with Beijing over the disputed Senkaku islands.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/04/china-accuses-us-of-putting-stability-of-asia-pacific-at-risk?CMP=edit_2221

[Azor]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/29/us-china-war-increasingly-a-reality-chinese-army-official-says.html

Yawn. The Chinese have had plenty of time and space to resolve the following issues without any external pressure:

15 years to renounce using military force against Taiwan
10-15 years to disarm North Korea, removing nuclear weapons from the peninsula
10-15 years to resolve territorial disputes with Japan and the Philippines diplomatically and without the use of coercion or force


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-southchinasea-mattis-idUSKBN15J061

Mattis is quite correct. However, the forces in theater should be prepared for war as China will probably strike first, hard and fast. Establishing Allied A2/AD zones in the First and Second Island Chains while under fire will be important, and the USMC can play an important role in establishing land-based components of those zones.


Meanwhile, the Guardian's cup is half-full

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/04/china-accuses-us-of-putting-stability-of-asia-pacific-at-risk?CMP=edit_2221

It's plain wrong.

The United States has explicitly stated for decades that the Diaoyou/Senkakus are under Japan's administration (despite the trilateral dispute), and therefore are covered by American defense commitments to Japan.

[AdamG]

Japan plans to dispatch its largest warship on a three-month tour through the South China Sea beginning in May, three sources said, in its biggest show of naval force in the region since World War Two.
China claims almost all the disputed waters and its growing military presence has fueled concern in Japan and the West, with the United States holding regular air and naval patrols to ensure freedom of navigation.
The Izumo helicopter carrier, commissioned only two years ago, will make stops in Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka before joining the Malabar joint naval exercise with Indian and U.S. naval vessels in the Indian Ocean in July.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16K0UP

[SWJ Blog]

Strengthening Ties with Vietnam as a ‘South China Sea Ally’ (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/strengthening-ties-with-vietnam-as-a-%E2%80%98south-china-sea-ally%E2%80%99)

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[AdamG]

China is developing the unique ultra-low altitude anti-ship unmanned vehicle. Details have emerged of new Chinese unmanned ground effect vehicle that would attack enemy surface ships.



The new ultra-low altitude anti-ship unmanned system can fly as low as 50 cm above the sea, can reach a maximum altitude of 3,000 km, along with an endurance of 1.5 hours – depending on the flight profile. The maximum take-off weight (MTOW) is 3000 kilograms and can carry a 1000 kg load.

http://defence-blog.com/news/china-develops-advanced-ultra-low-altitude-anti-ship-unmanned-system.html

[AdamG]

Two Chinese Sukhoi Su-30 jets have conducted an "unprofessional" intercept of a US aircraft, the US military said.
One of the Chinese jets came as close as 150ft (45m) to the US WC-135 plane and flew upside down above it, according to US officials cited by CNN.
The US says the plane was on a mission to detect radiation in international airspace over the East China Sea.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39971267

[Azor]

Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-china-idUSKCN18F1DJ


Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said on Friday Chinese counterpart China Xi Jinping had warned him there would be war if Manila tried to enforce an arbitration ruling and drill for oil in a disputed part of the South China Sea.

In remarks that could infuriate China, Duterte hit back at domestic critics who said he has gone soft on Beijing by refusing to push it to comply with an award last year by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which ruled largely in favor of the Philippines.

Duterte said he discussed it with Xi when the two met in Beijing on Monday, and got a firm, but friendly warning.

"We intend to drill oil there, if it's yours, well, that's your view, but my view is, I can drill the oil, if there is some inside the bowels of the earth because it is ours," Duterte said in a speech, recalling his conversation with Xi.

"His response to me, 'we're friends, we don't want to quarrel with you, we want to maintain the presence of warm relationship, but if you force the issue, we'll go to war."

Duterte has long expressed his admiration for Xi and said he would raise the arbitration ruling with him eventually, but needed first to strengthen relations between the two countries, which the Philippines is hoping will yield billions of dollars in Chinese loans and infrastructure investments.

The Hague award clarifies Philippine sovereign rights in its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone to access offshore oil and gas fields, including the Reed Bank, 85 nautical miles off its coast.

It also invalidated China's nine-dash line claim on its maps denoting sovereignty over most of the South China Sea.

Duterte has a reputation for his candid, at times incendiary, remarks and his office typically backpeddles on his behalf and blames the media for distorting his most controversial comments.

Duterte recalled the same story about his discussion with Xi on oil exploration in a recorded television show aired moments after the speech.

He said Xi told him "do not touch it".

He said Xi had promised that the arbitration ruling would be discussed in future, but not now.

Duterte said China did not want to bring up the arbitral ruling at a time when other claimant countries, like Vietnam, might also decide to file cases against it at the arbitration tribunal.

It was not the first time the firebrand leader has publicly discussed the content of private meetings with other world leaders.

His remarks came the same day that China and the Philippines held their first session in a two-way consultation process on the South China Sea.

They exchanged views on "the importance of appropriately handling concerns, incidents and disputes involving the South China Sea", the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement that gave few details.

Well, at least the discussion is more honest than the absurd references to "freedom of navigation" or "ancient maps". China wants control over and access to the energy resources of the South and East China Seas. It wants to reduce dependence upon the Middle East and is looking down the road when energy prices might rise significantly and make these undersea deposits both economic and essential.

[Azor]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39971267

So much for the Trump-Xi deal. The rejection of North Korean coal was a bit of theater and true "fake news", and Xi seems more interested in the increased U.S. presence than Kim's slow progress toward a credible deterrent.

[Azor]

NYT: https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/asia/china-cia-spies-espionage.html


WASHINGTON — The Chinese government systematically dismantled C.I.A. spying operations in the country starting in 2010, killing or imprisoning more than a dozen sources over two years and crippling intelligence gathering there for years afterward.

Current and former American officials described the intelligence breach as one of the worst in decades. It set off a scramble in Washington’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies to contain the fallout, but investigators were bitterly divided over the cause. Some were convinced that a mole within the C.I.A. had betrayed the United States. Others believed that the Chinese had hacked the covert system the C.I.A. used to communicate with its foreign sources. Years later, that debate remains unresolved.

But there was no disagreement about the damage. From the final weeks of 2010 through the end of 2012, according to former American officials, the Chinese killed at least a dozen of the C.I.A.’s sources. According to three of the officials, one was shot in front of his colleagues in the courtyard of a government building — a message to others who might have been working for the C.I.A.

Still others were put in jail. All told, the Chinese killed or imprisoned 18 to 20 of the C.I.A.’s sources in China, according to two former senior American officials, effectively unraveling a network that had taken years to build.

Assessing the fallout from an exposed spy operation can be difficult, but the episode was considered particularly damaging. The number of American assets lost in China, officials said, rivaled those lost in the Soviet Union and Russia during the betrayals of both Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen, formerly of the C.I.A. and the F.B.I., who divulged intelligence operations to Moscow for years.

The previously unreported episode shows how successful the Chinese were in disrupting American spying efforts and stealing secrets years before a well-publicized breach in 2015 gave Beijing access to thousands of government personnel records, including intelligence contractors. The C.I.A. considers spying in China one of its top priorities, but the country’s extensive security apparatus makes it exceptionally hard for Western spy services to develop sources there.

At a time when the C.I.A. is trying to figure out how some of its most sensitive documents were leaked onto the internet two months ago by WikiLeaks, and the F.B.I. investigates possible ties between President Trump’s campaign and Russia, the unsettled nature of the China investigation demonstrates the difficulty of conducting counterespionage investigations into sophisticated spy services like those in Russia and China.

The C.I.A. and the F.B.I. both declined to comment.

Details about the investigation have been tightly held. Ten current and former American officials described the investigation on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to be identified discussing the information.

The first signs of trouble emerged in 2010. At the time, the quality of the C.I.A.’s information about the inner workings of the Chinese government was the best it had been for years, the result of recruiting sources deep inside the bureaucracy in Beijing, four former officials said. Some were Chinese nationals who the C.I.A. believed had become disillusioned with the Chinese government’s corruption.

But by the end of the year, the flow of information began to dry up. By early 2011, senior agency officers realized they had a problem: Assets in China, one of their most precious resources, were disappearing.

The F.B.I. and the C.I.A. opened a joint investigation run by top counterintelligence officials at both agencies. Working out of a secret office in Northern Virginia, they began analyzing every operation being run in Beijing. One former senior American official said the investigation had been code-named Honey Badger.

As more and more sources vanished, the operation took on increased urgency. Nearly every employee at the American Embassy was scrutinized, no matter how high ranking. Some investigators believed the Chinese had cracked the encrypted method that the C.I.A. used to communicate with its assets. Others suspected a traitor in the C.I.A., a theory that agency officials were at first reluctant to embrace — and that some in both agencies still do not believe.

Their debates were punctuated with macabre phone calls — “We lost another one” — and urgent questions from the Obama administration wondering why intelligence about the Chinese had slowed.

The mole hunt eventually zeroed in on a former agency operative who had worked in the C.I.A.’s division overseeing China, believing he was most likely responsible for the crippling disclosures. But efforts to gather enough evidence to arrest him failed, and he is now living in another Asian country, current and former officials said.

There was good reason to suspect an insider, some former officials say. Around that time, Chinese spies compromised National Security Agency surveillance in Taiwan — an island Beijing claims is part of China — by infiltrating Taiwanese intelligence, an American partner, according to two former officials. And the C.I.A. had discovered Chinese operatives in the agency’s hiring pipeline, according to officials and court documents.

But the C.I.A.’s top spy hunter, Mark Kelton, resisted the mole theory, at least initially, former officials say. Mr. Kelton had been close friends with Brian J. Kelley, a C.I.A. officer who in the 1990s was wrongly suspected by the F.B.I. of being a Russian spy. The real traitor, it turned out, was Mr. Hanssen. Mr. Kelton often mentioned Mr. Kelley’s mistreatment in meetings during the China episode, former colleagues say, and said he would not accuse someone without ironclad evidence.

Those who rejected the mole theory attributed the losses to sloppy American tradecraft at a time when the Chinese were becoming better at monitoring American espionage activities in the country. Some F.B.I. agents became convinced that C.I.A. handlers in Beijing too often traveled the same routes to the same meeting points, which would have helped China’s vast surveillance network identify the spies in its midst.


Some officers met their sources at a restaurant where Chinese agents had planted listening devices, former officials said, and even the waiters worked for Chinese intelligence.


This carelessness, coupled with the possibility that the Chinese had hacked the covert communications channel, would explain many, if not all, of the disappearances and deaths, some former officials said. Some in the agency, particularly those who had helped build the spy network, resisted this theory and believed they had been caught in the middle of a turf war within the C.I.A.

Still, the Chinese picked off more and more of the agency’s spies, continuing through 2011 and into 2012. As investigators narrowed the list of suspects with access to the information, they started focusing on a Chinese-American who had left the C.I.A. shortly before the intelligence losses began. Some investigators believed he had become disgruntled and had begun spying for China. One official said the man had access to the identities of C.I.A. informants and fit all the indicators on a matrix used to identify espionage threats.

After leaving the C.I.A., the man decided to remain in Asia with his family and pursue a business opportunity, which some officials suspect that Chinese intelligence agents had arranged.

Officials said the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. lured the man back to the United States around 2012 with a ruse about a possible contract with the agency, an arrangement common among former officers. Agents questioned the man, asking why he had decided to stay in Asia, concerned that he possessed a number of secrets that would be valuable to the Chinese. It’s not clear whether agents confronted the man about whether he had spied for China.

The man defended his reasons for living in Asia and did not admit any wrongdoing, an official said. He then returned to Asia.

By 2013, the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. concluded that China’s success in identifying C.I.A. agents had been blunted — it is not clear how — but the damage had been done.


The C.I.A. has tried to rebuild its network of spies in China, officials said, an expensive and time-consuming effort led at one time by the former chief of the East Asia Division. A former intelligence official said the former chief was particularly bitter because he had worked with the suspected mole and recruited some of the spies in China who were ultimately executed.

China has been particularly aggressive in its espionage in recent years, beyond the breach of the Office of Personnel Management records in 2015, American officials said. Last year, an F.B.I. employee pleaded guilty to acting as a Chinese agent for years, passing sensitive technology information to Beijing in exchange for cash, lavish hotel rooms during foreign travel and prostitutes.

In March, prosecutors announced the arrest of a longtime State Department employee, Candace Marie Claiborne, accused of lying to investigators about her contacts with Chinese officials. According to the criminal complaint against Ms. Claiborne, who pleaded not guilty, Chinese agents wired cash into her bank account and showered her with gifts that included an iPhone, a laptop and tuition at a Chinese fashion school. In addition, according to the complaint, she received a fully furnished apartment and a stipend.

[Azor]

My opinion is that China's claims in the ECS and SCS have always been primarily about securing access to undersea energy resources, and less about fisheries, ancient territorial claims or restricting foreign navigation. Beijing is aware of its reliance upon Middle Eastern energy, the vulnerability of its supply lines and the fact that energy prices in the future may approach the same levels as in the early-to-mid-2000s.

This is not to say that Beijing will not continue to ratchet-up tensions in the SCS, given that it has in the ECS despite a joint exploitation agreement with Tokyo, but that Beijing will not allow Manila to transform itself into the Venezuela of the Asia-Pacific and hold the Chinese economy ransom. This determination is irrespective of UNCLOS or other references to "international law"...

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-china-idUSKBN1AA10L?il=0


MANILA (Reuters) - China's foreign minister on Tuesday said he supported the idea of joint energy ventures with the Philippines in the disputed South China Sea, warning that unilateral action could cause problems and damage both sides.

Wang Yi, on a two-day visit to Manila, made the remarks after President Rodrigo Duterte on Monday said a partner had been found to develop oil fields and exploration and exploitation would restart this year.

Duterte did not identify the partner. The energy ministry on July 12 said drilling at the Reed Bank, suspended in 2014, might resume before year-end, and the government was preparing to offer new blocks to investors in bidding in December.

"In waters where there are overlapping maritime rights and interests, if one party goes for unilateral development, and the other party takes the same action, that might complicate the situation at sea," Wang told a news conference.

"That might lead to tension, and as the end result, nobody would be able to develop resources."

The Philippines suspended energy activities while awaiting a ruling in a case by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. When it ruled a year ago, the court invalidated China's claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion of seaborne goods passes each year.

Beijing's harassment of a survey ship of an Anglo-Filipino consortium in the Reed Bank in 2011 and its control of Scarborough Shoal in 2012 were among the reasons Manila filed the arbitration case, which China refuses to recognize.

The Philippines relies overwhelmingly on imports to fuel its fast-growing economy and needs to develop indigenous energy resources. Its main source of natural gas, the Malampaya field near the disputed waters, will be depleted within a decade.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano said the proposal to jointly develop resources in the disputed waters began in 1986, but the two countries "had not found wisdom to be able to push through to the next step".

Experts say setting up such an arrangement would be extremely complex and politically sensitive. Both countries claim the oil and gas reserves, and a deal on sharing could be seen as legitimizing the other side's claim, or giving away sovereign territory.

Wang also said China and Southeast Asian countries were firming up a maritime code of conduct framework, showing the world they could handle differences.

However, in a veiled reference to the United States, he said it was important for regional friends to stand up to outside interference.

"If there are still some non-regional forces in the region, they don't want to see stability and want to stir up trouble, we need to stand together and say 'No' to them together," he said.

[AdamG]

JOINT BASE PEARL HARBOR-HICKAM, Hawaii - China has practiced bombing runs targeting the U.S. territory of Guam, one of a host of activities making U.S. forces here consider Beijing the most worrisome potential threat in the Pacific, even as North Korea pursues a nuclear warhead.
Beyond the well-publicized military build up on man-made islands in the South China Sea, China has built up its fleet of fighters to the extent that it operates a daily, aggressive campaign to contest airspace over the East China Sea, South China Sea and beyond, U.S. military officials here in the region said. China has also taken several other non-military steps that are viewed as attempts to make it much more difficult for the U.S. to operate there and defend allies in the future.

https://www.defensenews.com/flashpoints/2017/10/31/china-has-practiced-bombing-runs-against-guam-us-says/

[AdamG]

Beijing has unveiled an all-new dredger specialized to quickly create new islands in the disputed South China Sea. The monstrous machine is capable of dredging massive quantities of rock from the ocean floor, allowing it to create new islands like “magic” as China pursues land reclamation initiatives in the disputed waterway.
The Tian Kun Hao undertook its first water tests on#Friday. Named after#a massive fish in#Chinese mythology, the ship is 460 feet long and can mine 212,000 cubic feet of#sediment from#the ocean floor every hour#— enough to#fill three olympic swimming pools.

https://sputniknews.com/asia/201711061058865794-china-dredger-island-building-reclamation