View Full Version : Collapses and Coups

10-17-2006, 04:13 PM
Collapses and Coups (http://www.theadventuresofchester.com/archives/2006/10/collapses_and_c.html) - Head on over to The Adventures of Chester for a look at various scenarios concerning a possible KN coup backed by the PRC...

The world should not be surprised by a Chinese-sponsored coup in North Korea.

Consider two assumptions: first, that of all the countries surrounding North Korea, China by far possesses the most levers of influence. It shares a long border with North Korea; provides food aid and other types of logistics support to North Korea; has a treaty with North Korea, calling it a "friend"; has a shared ideological background; has cooperated on some military matters; and so forth. Not only that, but because of all of these relationships, the Chinese are in a much better position than the other neighbors to have a clear read on exactly what is going on inside the North; what the status of the military is; who in the leadership might be tired of Kim; and so forth.

The second assumption is that there are many possible futures for the crisis. These beg the question: which will be more beneficial to China, and therefore, which might China attempt to foster?...