PDA

View Full Version : Pax Americana, we hardly knew ye



AdamG
09-08-2011, 10:23 PM
Reset those geopolitical calendars, folks. Itís not post-1991 anymore. It may not be post-1945 anymore. Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are interacting more in the pre-WWII (WWI-era?), pre-American-superpower mode every day. Things are happening so fast now itís hard to keep up with them.

Herewith an annotated list:

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2011/09/06/pax-americana-we-hardly-knew-ye/

prescottrjp
09-08-2011, 10:56 PM
Post-Westphalian Era? The New Medieval Ages??

Ken White
09-09-2011, 03:00 AM
Most wanna-be Empires or quasi empires don't succeed at all. Turkey will be a force with which to reckon but they're unlikely to go beyond a regional bubble. Same applies to Indonesia -- and a couple of others here and there.

Most Empires of real power, OTOH, do have worldwide sway but each has generally had a shorter life than its predecessors. Compression at work facilitated by the ever increasing ease and speed of communication. That doesn't bode well for China -- or India. We were never going to be on top for long, we aren't mean enough -- unless we're badly provoked (and many in the world have by now figured out pretty much where that line is...). :wry:

jmm99
09-09-2011, 04:07 AM
Some good thoughts here - since I agree with the basic premises :D:


Imperial compression.

Most wanna-be Empires or quasi empires don't succeed at all. Turkey will be a force with which to reckon but they're unlikely to go beyond a regional bubble. Same applies to Indonesia -- and a couple of others here and there.

Most Empires of real power, OTOH, do have worldwide sway but each has generally had a shorter life than its predecessors. Compression at work facilitated by the ever increasing ease and speed of communication. That doesn't bode well for China -- or India. We were never going to be on top for long, we aren't mean enough -- unless we're badly provoked (and many in the world have by now figured out pretty much where that line is...).

You might expand this into a thesis (I'm half-serious - but neither of us needs a thesis to qualify :)).

I think Adam's ref. (going back and founded in Mackinder (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History)) has validity. "Pax Americana" (a term I first heard from ny roommate in 1965) never really had a chance. So, more regional powers can be expected in the future.

From my armchair, we will have in the "World":

1. A "Westphalian Era" set of powers that are not "hollow"; they will have real power, but with limitations.

2. A "Post-Westphalian Era" set of non-powers that are "hollow" as "Hell to the Proverbial Christian".

3. A "Dark Ages" set of geographical areas (e.g., Somalia) that are simply in a "State of Chaos" - see, Naji, The Management of Savagery (http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/olin/images/Management%20of%20Savagery%20-%2005-23-2006.pdf) (2006) for an AQ methodology to handle that.

Of course, if I were Mackinder, I would focus on the Western Hemisphere as the "Island Center" ("Pivot Area") - the Atlantic and Pacific littorals being the force projection outliers for US (my typical song and dance ;)).

I see the future as an "interesting time" (as in the Chinese curse) for me, where "International Law" will be very non-uniform. That situation will be resisted by the I Law pundits because it is contrary to their Brooding Omnipresence in the Sky.

Regards

Mike

PS (to the "older retiree"): All copies of client files (no original documents - I went through a couple of 1000 files) have now been burned or distributed to clients - other than four left which will be shipped or hand delivered.

I am now "quit, finis, etc."

And, Bill Moore (if you happen to read this), all of my suits are garbaged - except for one blue blazer.

Ken White
09-09-2011, 04:23 AM
1. A "Westphalian Era"...

2. A "Post-Westphalian Era" set of non-powers...

3. A "Dark Ages" set of geographical areas...

... the Atlantic and Pacific littorals being the force projection outliers for US (my typical song and dance ;)).All that, yes -- but mostly for this:
...all of my suits are garbaged - except for one blue blazer.Me too, Bofus... :D

jmm99
09-09-2011, 04:46 AM
but, I'm having a lot of satisfaction rebuilding my 15-year-old lawn mower. :D

And, while I'm contractually barred from indulging in the "active private practice of law", that does not prevent me from diving into "public law" - as in looking at ROEs in combat situations; and in answering Polarbear1605's questions, as one example.

The best of all worlds as far as I'm concerned. :)

Regards

Mike

AdamG
09-12-2011, 01:38 PM
For a little tangential nugget to fuel the flames of this conversation, read :



The U.S. launched 97 percent of the Tomahawk cruise missiles that crippled Gadhafi's air defenses at the start of operation. And throughout, the U.S. also provided about 75 percent of all the aerial refueling and reconnaissance flights and supplied key targeting and intelligence assets such as unmanned drones.

"Without critical American assets this would not have been possible and I suppose one could argue that if the operation had to go on too much longer it also would not have been possible," says Ian Lesser executive director of German Marshall Fund's trans-Atlantic center in Brussels.

"Clearly Europe was very, hard pressed," Lesser adds, "They were running out of stocks. The lesson really is that the US and Europe together need to refine their defense planning and procurement so they can get more for the amount they can spend."

http://www.npr.org/2011/09/12/140292920/natos-intervention-in-libya-a-new-model

AdamG
01-06-2012, 01:28 PM
A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don't bet on it. The demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines. If Washington is dreaming of 2040 or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that in 2025, just 15 years from now, it could all be over except for the shouting.

Despite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. So delicate is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad, empires regularly unravel with unholy speed: just a year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britain, and, in all likelihood, 22 years for the United States, counting from the crucial year 2003.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/05/opinion/main7121029.shtml