View Full Version : Russia, politics and power: internal & external(new title)
Moderator's Note
This is a merged thread after a review; a Russian military thread remains intcat and a few historical threads.
http://www.citypaper.ee/paper/articles/1841/
Pundits are offering theories that Putin’s Munich speech reflects Russia’s desire to re-establish the lost grandeur of the Soviet times and bring Estonia and other prodigal sons back under the Russian sphere of influence. That’s what the local pundits say. But if you ask us, there’s little more annoying than having everything interpreted for us simply because we’re too lazy to read. Why not read Mr. Putin’s entire speech and make up your own mind? Visit http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2007/02/10/0138_type82912type82914type82917type84779_118135.s html
Jedburgh
04-12-2007, 02:37 PM
ISN Security Watch, 12 Apr 07: Ultranationalists Shift to Terror Tactics (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=17476)
...There have been documented cases of employees of Russian nuclear facilities stealing enriched uranium and plutonium. There was also one case in which a Russian nuclear physicist stowed away his own stash of plutonium before retiring "just in case" he might need it. In comparison, Vlasov's case represents a dangerous phenomenon: Here, a veteran of the Russian nuclear industry has committed a grave crime based on his racist beliefs, rather than greed...
....Vlasov's act also raises grave concerns given the emerging trend of increasingly violent ultranationalism - a trend that once only included an arsenal with metal bars, knives and other individual weapons, but has lately grown to include more lethal weapons, such as explosives as well as mercury....
...agencies must diversify their counterterrorism efforts to focus not only on jihadist groups based in the North Caucasus, as is now the case, but also on the increasing propensity for terrorism among ultranationalist groups with special attention paid to the prevention of nuclear, biological or chemical attacks by xenophobic and other ideologically motivated insiders.
In particular, increasing use of terrorist methods by individual ultranationalists and groups requires urgent joint action and coordination between counterterrorism, anti-extremism units of national law-enforcement agencies and security services and those units which monitor personnel and general security at nuclear facilities....
The SOVA Center (http://xeno.sova-center.ru/6BA2468/) is a Russian NGO with a particular focus on this topic.
SWJED
05-28-2007, 10:38 AM
28 May LA Times commentary - Reviving the Evil Empire (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-0e-ferguson28may28,0,1696009.column?coll=la-opinion-center) by Niall Ferguson.
... Seven years ago, the economist Brigitte Granville and I published an article in the Journal of Economic History titled "Weimar on the Volga," in which we argued that the experience of 1990s Russia bore many resemblances to the experience of 1920s Germany...
Yet this is not Cold War II. Unlike in the 1950s and 1960s, Russia is not self-confident but insecure. It is reliant on exports of natural resources, not its own ability to match American technological accomplishments. It is a waning power. The value of the parallel with Weimar Germany is precisely that it captures the dangers of a backlash against such weakness...
I would never believe that Putin would give in, but my military friend in Norway just responded to your post with this (he's shy and relatively silent):
Good evening to you too!
Stalemate!
Russia has offered to extradite Lugovoy in exchange of Berezovsky.
No link. Just got from a family member in the business.....
Should be extremely interesting :cool:
One second ago, a tad more
I was told that it was proposed by the Chairman of the Russian Security Comittee Vladimir Vasilyev
SWJED
07-26-2007, 06:45 AM
26 July AP via NY Times - Russia to Increase Military Might and Spy Efforts (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/26/world/europe/26Russia.html?_r=1&oref=slogin).
President Vladimir V. Putin said Wednesday that he intended to strengthen Russia’s military capacity and to step up spying abroad in response to plans by the United States to build missile defense sites and deploy troops in Central Europe.
“The situation in the world and internal political interests require the Foreign Intelligence Service to permanently increase its capabilities, primarily in the field of information and analytical support for the country’s leadership,” Mr. Putin said at a meeting with senior military and security officers in remarks that were posted on the Kremlin’s Web site...
Dominique R. Poirier
07-26-2007, 08:36 AM
http://www.medcartoons.ru/wall/putin.JPG
The main designer of the Bulava, Yuri Solomonov, has in the past attributed the multiple mishaps of test-launches to the progressive degradation of the Russian defense industry, the inferior quality of Russian-made components and materials, and the “loss” of key military technology (VPK, April 4). This apparently unstoppable degradation means that in the coming years Russia will be unable to arm its forces with modern weapons. Russian arms exports are also affected. Alexander Brindikov, deputy chief of the Russian arms trade monopoly Rosoboronexport, explains: “We are encountering colossal problems fulfilling existing export contracts and are withholding from signing some new ones, because we cannot figure how they may be fulfilled” because of the degradation of the Russian defense industry (VPK, March 21).
In the future Russia maybe forced to begin procuring Western (i.e., U.S.) arms and defense know how, or its forces will have no new weapons -- and perhaps none at all. Why would Putin pick fights with the West on any possible issue when it is becoming obvious that Russia is becoming dependent on Western aid and good will? Perhaps Putin’s actions are not foolish, but the product of deliberate misinformation about the true state of the Russian military and defense industry.
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372316
Tom Odom
07-26-2007, 06:17 PM
http://www.medcartoons.ru/wall/putin.JPG
Where are his horns, Dominique?
Mama Bouchet (mother of my role model native Cajun, Bobby Bochet) would say, "Putin is de debble!"
Tom :D
Dominique R. Poirier
07-26-2007, 06:41 PM
Tom,
don't worry about it. One of his good old loyal servitors is going to give him a pair of good ones which still have got a few years' use left in it...
http://www.obiettivoiraq.rai.it/Contents/news/23400/chirac_putin_100203.jpg
Jedburgh
08-25-2007, 01:28 PM
The Economist, 23 Aug 07: Russia Under Putin: The Making of a Neo-KGB State (http://www.economist.com/world/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9682621)
....Just before he became president, Mr Putin told his ex-colleagues at the Federal Security Service (FSB), the KGB's successor, “A group of FSB operatives, dispatched under cover to work in the government of the Russian federation, is successfully fulfilling its task.” He was only half joking.
Over the two terms of Mr Putin's presidency, that “group of FSB operatives” has consolidated its political power and built a new sort of corporate state in the process. Men from the FSB and its sister organisations control the Kremlin, the government, the media and large parts of the economy—as well as the military and security forces. According to research by Olga Kryshtanovskaya (http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/b655c8f7-17c7-4230-8bde-e13278d844b6.html), a sociologist at the Russian Academy of Sciences, a quarter of the country's senior bureaucrats are siloviki—a Russian word meaning, roughly, “power guys”, which includes members of the armed forces and other security services, not just the FSB. The proportion rises to three-quarters if people simply affiliated to the security services are included. These people represent a psychologically homogeneous group, loyal to roots that go back to the Bolsheviks' first political police, the Cheka. As Mr Putin says repeatedly, “There is no such thing as a former Chekist.”
By many indicators, today's security bosses enjoy a combination of power and money without precedent in Russia's history.....
I'd like to add 1 reading material to Jedburgh's post. It contains also Kryshtanovskaya's tables.
This issue of the Russian Analytical Digest discusses the role of "Siloviki", appointed politicians and high-ranking officials with a force-structure background, in Russian politics and within the Putin administration. The issue further also looks at developments in Russian military reforms.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/rad/details.cfm?lng=en&id=29428
Spies in the Russian Embassy you say ?
Russia's Daily On-Line Kommersant (http://www.kommersant.com/p-11273/police_will_join_diplomats/) reports "Putin Sets Up Police Attaché Positions in Russian Embassies".
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree establishes positions for police officers in Russia’s diplomatic missions abroad, said RIA Novosti news agency with reference to the president’s press service.
The total number of Interior Ministry officials and their deputies is restricted to 41 people. The decree states the police officers in the embassies abroad will cooperate with their foreign colleagues in the struggle against transnational crimes.
Armchairguy
09-04-2007, 06:13 AM
"Russia is not self-confident but insecure. It is reliant on exports of natural resources, not its own ability to match American technological accomplishments. It is a waning power."
This seems to be somewhat true, but the bulk of Europe is growing much more dependant on oil from Russia and is more likely to make concessions to Russia to keep the taps open. Putin seems to be drumming up the countries paranoia and nationalism to try to recover its self confidence and in a world where Americas influence is being questioned he's trying to get his country some prestige as an alternative.
If the stories of incursions into Georgian airspace are to be believed, it's possible these are meant as either intimidation and/or to gauge world reaction (none I know of).
I think the planting of a Russian flag on the ocean floor at the north pole is a similar attempt to shore up Russias confidence and another way of testing the worlds reaction (quite a bit more reaction).
Bottom line I think most of it is for domestic consumption, as a way to focus eyeballs outward and to foster nationalism.
Maybe there's still hope that the EU will actually 'bite' this time around with all the howling they continue to do. Russia's recent threats "No more cheap gas for Russia's neighbors (http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070831/75975200.html)" to increase gas prices to the Baltic States by 40% didn't come as much of a surprise here.
In a few days Russia is to commence talks over gas prices with Latvia and Estonia, and in October with Belarus and Ukraine. Lithuanian distributors have already received offers to buy Gazprom gas at $280 per 1,000 cubic meters (the current price is $190). The same price is going to apply to the other Baltic countries. Belarus is most likely to pay $125-150 for Russian gas in 2008 (it is paying $100 now). The price for Ukraine is expected to be raised to $180 from the present $130.
Currently, Russia's closest neighbors, former Soviet republics, are paying about 40-70% of the average European price. And these prices are set by the market, not by the gas monopoly.
But the EC's latest decisions (http://www.kommersant.com/p-11320/r_529/Gazprom_energy_ban/) were indeed a welcomed surprise.
The ban will last as long as Russia keeps closed its crude oil/gas production for the EU companies. The current laws of EU prohibit any discrimination of investors for reasons of nationality. What's more, EU cannot pursue the special economic policy in respect of Russia without jeopardizing its own principals of free economy. The draft of new energy laws of the EU will be promulgated September 19.
Jedburgh
10-02-2007, 02:02 PM
RAD, 2 Oct 07: Political Opposition in Russia (http://se1.isn.ch/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=PublishingHouse&fileid=2B43C51B-0A1C-F035-070E-BADCFF404D2D&lng=en)
The Russian Analytical Digest is a bi-weekly internet publication jointly produced by the Research Centre for East European Studies [Forschungsstelle Osteuropa] at the University of Bremen (http://www.forschungsstelle-osteuropa.de) and the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich). It is supported
by the Otto Wolff Foundation and the German Association for East European Studies (DGO). The Digest draws on contributions to the German-language Russlandanalysen (http://www.russlandanalysen.de), the CSS analytical network on Russia and Eurasia (www.res.ethz.ch), and the Russian Regional Report . The Russian Analytical Digest covers political, economic, and social developments in Russia and its regions, and looks at Russia’s role in international relations.
tequila
11-01-2007, 09:59 AM
Russian ex-KGB chief warns secret elite over feud (http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL3127103120071031?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews)- Reuters.
MOSCOW (Reuters) - The former head of the Soviet KGB warned on Wednesday that a conflict between rival Russian security services could lead to "big trouble" and urged feuding clans to unite around President Vladimir Putin.
Details have emerged of a feud between rival groups of secret service officers who form the bedrock of Putin's team. Observers warn it could split the ruling elite at a critical time when Putin is preparing to leave office.
The battle came to light this month after agents from the Federal Security Service (FSB), controlled by Nikolai Patrushev, arrested senior officers from the anti-drugs service, controlled by Viktor Cherkesov, for corruption and abuse of office ...
Mark Ames at the Exile has a longer, more detailed take with extensive background (http://exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=13442&IBLOCK_ID=35). He sees the feud as perhaps leading to a collapse of the current dominance of the siloviki over the Russian system, just as the Yeltsin-era oligarchal system gave way to the rule of Putin and his security-service brethren.
Something big is happening in the world of Russian power. And it ain't pretty.
Two weeks ago, Viktor Cherkesov, the don of one of the main siloviki clans, published an open letter in Kommersant. Reports in the English-language press focused on how unusual it was for a silovik to take his problems public in the Putin Era--particularly a silovik of Cherkesov's stature. As head of the Federal Anti-Narcotics Agency, Cherkesov essentially runs a kind of FSB-2. And given the recent slew of high-profile arrests, along with Cherkesov's open letter, it looks as though FSB-2 is at war with FSB-1.
It's fitting that this war comes exactly 10 years after the outbreak of the Banker's War under Yeltsin, when the oligarchs divided into two mortal enemy camps in the fight over the last of Russia's unprivatized spoils. On one side of the Banker's War were Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky; and on the other side, the "baby billionaire" (to use the Washington Post's Fred Hiatt's own words) Vladimir Potanin and his men-in-power, the so-called "young reformers" headed by Anatoly Chubais, Boris Nemtsov, and Alexander Kokh. When the Berezovsky-Gusinsky clan felt cheated out of the privatization of Russia's telecommunications giant Svyazinvest, they took their war to the media, which they largely controlled through television stations ORT and NTV, as well as to the Russian security services, which they used to drudge up damaging kompromat. The end result of the Banker's War was the end of the oligarchy itself. Within a year of their feud, they and the system that made them collapsed.
Cherkesov warned in his letter that this very same suicidal scenario is playing out all over again today: as we near the end of the halcyon Putin Era, the once seemingly monolithic siloviki have divided into two warring camps struggling over power and assets. In one camp is the Cherkesov Clan, FSB-2; in the other, the clan headed by the FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev and his Kremlin allies led by the Presidential Administration deputy and Rosneft chief Igor Sechin. "We must not allow scandals and infighting," Cherkesov wrote in Kommersant. "There can be no winners in this war... There is too much at stake." He argued that not only would both clans lose, but the system built up in Putin's reign, the "corporatism" which Cherkesov argued has saved Russia from chaos, would go down with it.
If the "corporatist" system collapses, then it's back to chaos, just as the Banker's War ended in 1998 with the financial collapse and end of "liberal reforms ..."
Brian Hanley
11-01-2007, 09:15 PM
There have been divisions nearing coup in Russia since the breakup. Yeltsin's famous storming of the Duma being just one. Another was near the end of the Kosovo war when the Butcher of Chechnya was appointed. That put an end to the idea of a coup then by what became Putin's government - they knew that general would bomb Moscow if ordered. A lot happened that May after Yeltsin's people finally figured out what was going on.
I'd view this as a kind of continuation housecleaning by the "forces of clean" (AKA Putin's boys) with posturing by the "forces of crime". For what it's worth, the drug administration is corrupt as hell. How do you think they supported themselves the last 17 years? (By the way, the kosovo war was a bonus baby for that part of the FSB, because it hurt the drug pipeline into Europe through Albania that Osama's boys were running.)
The Moscow Times (http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2007/11/01/013.html) reports "Putin scolded Cherkesov in Kommersant for publicly airing dirty laundry but on Oct. 20 created a new state committee to fight illegal drugs and named Cherkesov as its chief."
KGB Vets Call for End to Turf War
A group of retired senior KGB officials have called on the country's security services to end a turf war between competing agencies that has turned into a bitter public conflict.
In an open letter published Wednesday in the ultranationalist newspaper Zavtra, the retired officials -- including General Vladimir Kryuchkov, the last KGB chief -- warned security services of the consequences of infighting.
Security services should be a source of stability in the country, not one of discord that can be exploited by "foreign and domestic destructive forces," they wrote.
Surferbeetle
12-29-2007, 08:34 PM
The View from Moscow
Ironically, at the beginning of the twentieth century the Soviets were fiercely ideological, and the West was essentially practical and pragmatic. Now, the Russians have transformed themselves into raw-and-ready capitalists, and the West is lecturing them on values. From the Russian perspective, there is no absolute freedom anywhere in the world, no perfect democracy, and no government that does not lie to its people. In essence, all are equal by virtue of sharing the same imperfections. Some are more powerful than others, how-ever, and that is what really counts.
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19111&prog=zru
Surferbeetle
12-29-2007, 09:07 PM
ACCORDING to VeriSign, one of the world’s largest internet security companies, RBN, an internet company based in Russia’s second city, St Petersburg, is “the baddest of the bad”. In a report seen by The Economist, VeriSign’s investigators unpick an extraordinary story of blatant cybercrime that implies high-level political backing.
www.economist.com (Aug 30, 2007 Article ... you will need a subscription)
www.economist.com (Aug 30, 2007 Article ... you will need a subscription)[/QUOTE]
the article is posted free here:
http://www.europeanvoice.com/archive/article.asp?id=28753
Brian Krebs on Computer Security at the Washington Post has gone even further into this subject. A quick read with some excellent links and graphics.
Mapping the Russian Business Network (http://blog.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2007/10/mapping_the_russian_business_n.html)
...McQuaid, who helps run the American Red Cross's IT networks, said the people behind RBN have taken notice that some network providers have chosen to block traffic originating from the St. Petersburg provider. ...he's recently seen attackers on RBN hiding the source and destination of their traffic by routing it through compromised home computers in the United States and in Europe as a way to evade blocking filters...
"What we're seeing now is RBN and some Chinese hacker groups are taking over machines in the U.S. and hosting malware or launching attacks from those machines, mainly because they realize their IP space is increasingly being blocked by the rest of the world,"
SWC Council Member JeffC (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/member.php?u=1192) also has some great insight into the RBN :)
Surferbeetle
12-30-2007, 02:47 PM
One simple question. That's all it took for Christophe Bisciglia to bewilder confident job applicants at Google (GOOG). Bisciglia, an angular 27-year-old senior software engineer with long wavy hair, wanted to see if these undergrads were ready to think like Googlers. "Tell me," he'd say, "what would you do if you had 1,000 times more data?"
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_52/b4064048925836.htm?chan=search
Stan,
Thanks for the link. RBN and some it's ramifications are interesting stuff. Estonia seems to be an interesting place and I wonder if the cyberattack on it impacted you in any way that you would be interested in sharing? I found Praque to be a fun place but that's as far east as I have gone in Europe.
I spent a little time yesterday looking at salt, hash functions, SHA-1, usenet, and of course wondering about the strength of my sooper dooper virus protection. The geek engineer in me loves this stuff but my soldiering side knows the power of a man on the scene with a gun.
Jeff - C,
This is one of the points where I have been hopping off the side of the pool into the water (brrgghh) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Business_Network do you have any other suggestions?
Steve
Surferbeetle
12-30-2007, 06:57 PM
The CIS region is experiencing a general trend toward greater regulation and control of the national information space, which includes the Internet. Although most CIS countries do not practice the substantive or pervasive filtering—Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan excepted—Internet content control through regulation or intimidation is growing throughout the region. In most cases, the legislative and judicial framework for filtering (or other restrictions) is ambiguous and open to interpretation. Moreover the laws are often unevenly applied, with “flexible” implementation often paired with other more subtle (but effective) measures designed to promote self-restraint (or self–censorship) of both ISP providers as well as content producers. Information control—in particular the protection of national informational space—is clearly an issue of concern throughout the CIS, and has encouraged more stringent attention to telecommunications surveillance (as has been happening in other parts of the world, most notably the United States). In addition, measures to protect regimes in power and stifle opposition are often couched in the language of “national security,” and have resulted in the development of new measures and techniques aimed at temporally "shaping" access to information at strategic moments, such as “event-based filtering.” Another innovation that merits further investigation is “upstream filtering.” Although these new measures are not present in all CIS countries, they are indicative of a new seriousness with which strategies for information control are being developed.
In 2007 a number of critical elections will take place in Russia and several other CIS countries. In the Russian case, exiled billionaire Boris Berezovsky has expressed his intent to overturn the existing regime. The Internet and other forms of communications technologies are expected to play an important role in the electoral process, and as such they will no doubt be the object of many actors’ attention.
Last, the re-emergence of stronger states in the region following more than a decade of transition, and general unhappiness concerning U.S. policies in the region (which have, over the past ten years, promoted media freedom and an active if foreign-funded civil society), is also sparking a degree of “blow-back” and renewed competition between East and West. For example, ONI research found that many “.mil” sites are not reachable in the CIS, suggesting that these may be subject to “supply-side” filtering by U.S. authorities.19 Between greater assertiveness on the part of CIS states and the stimulus of renewed interstate competition, the CIS is a region to watch as a global actor shaping norms that will govern the Internet into the future.
http://opennet.net/research/regions/cis
Surferbeetle
12-30-2007, 10:47 PM
The “great game” for access to Caspian resources
has led to a healthy diversification of export arteries for
which there is an objective need. It has helped the new
independent states of the region find traction in their
dealings with the great powers who have become rivals
for regional influence. The rivalry is still underway
nonetheless. In the Caspian region, in the words of
Régis Genté, oil and natural gas “also represent the
means by which a struggle to control the center of
the Eurasian continent is waged.”29
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=829
JeffC
12-30-2007, 11:27 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_52/b4064048925836.htm?chan=search
Jeff - C,
This is one of the points where I have been hopping off the side of the pool into the water (brrgghh) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Business_Network do you have any other suggestions?
Steve
Hi Steve -
A French security expert named David Bizeul wrote the best study I've ever read on the RBN. I covered it here (http://idolator.typepad.com/intelfusion/2007/11/the-russian-bus.html), along with a link to the .pdf.
However, another important group to watch is Rock Phish (http://idolator.typepad.com/intelfusion/2007/11/will-it-take-a.html).
And don't miss the CloudMark study on the Economics of Phishing by Chris Abad. A link to that study is in my Rock Phish post above.
SWC Council Member JeffC (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/member.php?u=1192) also has some great insight into the RBN :)
Thanks for the hat tip, Stan. I added my two cents worth below. :)
Hey Steve !
Stan,
Thanks for the link. RBN and some it's ramifications are interesting stuff. Estonia seems to be an interesting place and I wonder if the cyberattack on it impacted you in any way that you would be interested in sharing? I found Praque to be a fun place but that's as far east as I have gone in Europe.
Steve
Although some believe that the RBN financially supported the riots here, no one has yet to point the finger at them for the cyber attacks. The attacks affected nearly every government server, including ours at the MOI and emergency services. Kaur and I have kept up with this since it started. Check here (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=1959&page=3) and scroll down to #56 dated 05/04/07 (where Kaur first realizes his access was lost).
Regards, Stan
The number of sites on the Russian Internet grew by 66 percent in 2007, and the total number of such sites is on track to top two million by the end of 2008, the study said. But only one in five of the dot RU domains is located outside of the Russian capital, and their number is growing slightly more slowly than that in Moscow.
Approximately 57 percent of Muscovites now go online regularly, the study concluded, while only 40 percent of those in other Russian cities of more than 100,000 currently do so. And in small cities and rural areas, the figure is still below 20 percent, although that number is growing.
http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2008/01/window-on-eurasia-internet-use-varies.html
Jedburgh
01-10-2008, 10:35 PM
IHT, 10 Jan 08: Putin Chooses Nationalist Politician as Russia's Ambassador to NATO (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/01/10/europe/EU-GEN-Russia-NATO-Envoy.php)
President Vladimir Putin on Thursday named a prominent nationalist politician as Russia's ambassador to NATO at a time of severely strained ties between Moscow and the Western alliance.
Dmitry Rogozin (http://www.rferl.org/specials/russianelection/bio/rogozin.asp), a former parliament member who headed a nationalist party, replaces Gen. Konstantin Totsky.
The appointment of an outspoken nationalist is the latest reflection of Putin's assertive stance toward the West, which he accuses of meddling in Russia's affairs. But it did not appear to signal a shift in Russian policy toward its former Cold War foe.....
...as the country's ambassador to NATO.
The Kremlin's gambit in NATO:
Estonia's Daily Postimees (http://www.postimees.ee/110108/esileht/arvamus/305583.php?kremli-gambiit-natos) is angry over Rogosin's appointment as Russia's new Ambassador to NATO.
"Let's not forget that it was Rogosin who threatened NATO member Estonia with war last April, in order to protect a Soviet bronze statue. Rogosin says Russia has to resurrect its role as world power.
This does not suggest that the Kremlin wants normal relations with NATO. How will the Estonian envoy look upon a joint NATO conference with Russia ?
Estonia must have a say in the alliance."
Jedburgh
01-16-2008, 01:47 PM
ARAG, 15 Jan 08: Russia and the West: A Reassessment (http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/csrc/document-listings/monographs/Shrivenham%20Paper%206.pdf)
Key Points
- A powerful Russia is once again a fact of life, and Russians know it. They are no longer seeking our approval. They have recovered pride in their own traditions and are determined to advance their own interests. The post-Cold War partnership, founded at a time of Russian disorientation and weakness, is history.
- Russia is not reviving the Cold War, but classical Realpolitik with a strong geo-economic emphasis. Although Russia is not a global threat, it seeks to be both enabler and spoiler. It will exploit our difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan and leverage its influence in Iran to diminish Western influence in the former USSR, where it will use both hard and soft power to resurrect its dominance.
- At a regional level, Russia fears further NATO enlargement and seeks to erode the significance of NATO and EU membership. It has not abandoned ambitions to be a determinant actor in the Balkans and Central Europe. It seeks geo-political partnership with Turkey, a commanding role in the Black Sea region and a de facto veto on matters of European security. Whilst the post-Cold War status quo is not reversible, we should not assume that it cannot be undermined or revised.
- Energy, defined by Russia's official energy strategy as a significant determinant of "geo-political influence", will remain the crucible of difficulty and a source of Western weakness until we formulate an energy strategy that makes Russia respect the realities of interdependence and the rules that go with it.
- The political system, which discourages moderation, and the succession struggle (http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/csrc/document-listings/russian/08%2801%29MAS.pdf), which is proving to be ugly and prolonged, is making life difficult for those in Russia who see the merit of cooperation.
- But cooperation will be possible over the longer term if the West can shift Russia's focus to its own demographic, social and resource related vulnerabilities. Until we regain the ability to speak with one voice on matters of collective importance, this will not happen. Russia is underestimating its own shortcomings and our potential leverage. We should not.
Complete 47 page paper at the link.
...Russia's top military commander said (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080119/97339084.html) on Saturday that the country is prepared to use its nuclear weapons to defend itself and allies in the event of a severe external threat.
The Chief of the Russian General Staff, Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, told a conference at the Academy of Military Sciences in Moscow: "We do not intend to attack anyone, but consider it necessary that all our partners clearly understand, and that no one has any doubts, that the Armed Forces will be used to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, including preventative action, and including the use of nuclear weapons."
Russia resumed strategic bomber patrol flights over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic oceans last August, and on December 12, 2007 imposed a unilateral moratorium on the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty...
I'm trying to figure out what countries are on the list of Russia's allies whose security problems can be solved with nuclear weapons. I can find zero :)
I ran across this Russian Defense Forum (http://forum.warfare.ru/index.php?act=idx) trying to figure out just who is/are considered allies :wry:
Scroll down to Russia's Allies (http://forum.warfare.ru/index.php?showforum=12) thread.
EDIT: Baluyevsky added (http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2008/01/21/017.html)
...that Russia would use nuclear weapons and carry out preventive strikes only "in cases specified by the doctrinal documents of the Russian Federation."
Retired General Vladimir Dvorkin, formerly a top arms control expert with the Defense Ministry, said he saw "nothing new" in Baluyevsky's statement. "He was restating the doctrine in his own words," Dvorkin said.
Moscow-based military analyst Alexander Golts said that when Russia broke with stated Soviet-era policy in the 2000 doctrine and declared it could use nuclear weapons first against an aggressor, it reflected the decline of Russia's conventional forces in the decade following the 1991 Soviet collapse.
"Baluyevsky's statement means that, as before, we cannot count on our conventional forces to counter aggression," Golts said on Ekho Moskvy radio. "It means that, as before, the main factor in containing aggression against Russia is nuclear weapons."
MOSCOW, January 23 (RIA Novosti) (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080123/97602111.html) - Russia is concerned over NATO's expansion, which is aimed at building up its military potential around Russian borders rather than strengthening European security...
..."it is clear that NATO is building up its military potential around our borders and its new members continue to increase their defense budgets".
"This policy cannot resolve any security problems..."
NATO has signaled its backing for the recent bids by Russia's former Soviet allies, Georgia and Ukraine, to join the alliance, a move that has infuriated Moscow.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that the country would have to take "appropriate measures" if Ukraine were to join NATO.
Ron Humphrey
01-24-2008, 05:55 PM
MOSCOW, January 23 (RIA Novosti) (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080123/97602111.html) - Russia is concerned over NATO's expansion, which is aimed at building up its military potential around Russian borders rather than strengthening European security...
this shows my ignorance of the overarching circumstances, but just what exactly would they expect these nations to be doing considering their historic let alone more recent action, and statements?
Is this just bluster from a particular segment of their politik or is this a large scale issue within their society. The opportunities for mutually beneficial interaction within the international community are numerous. Where does the seeming need to have some sort of machismo prominence take precedence over reality of circumstance.
The only thing we continually hear from the governance is they must be respected, they must be regarded as important in this or that context.
Doesn't the same rule that applies to every person on earth apply to them.
In order to be respected one must show respect, in order to be a leader one must first be led.
I think it's paramount to first consider Russian perceptions and how their history still dictates current thinking -- the threat of domination from western powers.
Where are these ‘allies’ that they boast are now under their first strike nuclear umbrella? Serbia or better yet the break away Kosovo? NATO is probably being viewed as taking land that Russia had for years and now their (strong arm tactics) influence in the region is dwindling. Even if Serbia was a self-declared Russian ally, how would Russia otherwise support them with NATO nations between the two?
Georgia and The Ukraine threaten Russia’s southern flank with NATO membership and even further isolation. The Baltic States are literally a thorn in their side, and the USA wants to plant missile defense batteries in Poland (to defend exactly who?). We'll need a rocket scientist for that one :D
Following General Yury Baluyevsky's comments (http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2008/01/21/017.html) about the use of nuclear weapons are two significant comments from:
Retired General Vladimir Dvorkin, formerly a top arms control expert with the Defense Ministry, said he saw "nothing new" in Baluyevsky's statement. "He was restating the doctrine in his own words…"
Moscow-based military analyst Alexander Golts said that when Russia broke with stated Soviet-era policy in the 2000 doctrine and declared it could use nuclear weapons first against an aggressor, it reflected the decline of Russia's conventional forces in the decade following the 1991 Soviet collapse.
"Baluyevsky's statement means that, as before, we cannot count on our conventional forces to counter aggression," Golts said on Ekho Moskvy radio. "It means that, as before, the main factor in containing aggression against Russia is nuclear weapons."
Obviously the Russians don’t understand…whom, given the choice of the current regime or NATO wouldn’t go west?
We’ve been smokin' along (and over them) since the early 90’s and, IMO they agreed because they had no other choice. Well, those days (for now) are gone.
MOSCOW, January 26 (RIA Novosti) (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080126/97787901.html)- Russia is concerned over Ukraine's drive to join NATO, which may seriously harm Russian-Ukrainian relations, the Foreign Ministry said on Saturday.
"The desire to accelerate [Ukraine's] accession to this military-political bloc, expressed by the Ukrainian leadership, will entail serious consequences for the development of Russian-Ukrainian relations and will harm European security in general...
Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko handed over a request for Ukraine to join NATO's Membership Action Plan to the alliance's secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. The Action Plan is a necessary step on the path to eventual full membership of the organization.
Meanwhile, members of the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine have urged the country's leadership to recall the request for NATO membership, claiming that such a step was only possible after a referendum.
On Friday, Russian lawmakers terminated an agreement with Ukraine on early warning and space monitoring systems, citing Ukraine's failure to provide adequate technical support to radar facilities located on its territory.
Rogozin Says Set to Work With NATO (http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2008/01/25/012.html)
By Nikolaus von Twickel
Russia's new representative to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, offered a trademark nationalist farewell Thursday before heading to Brussels -- but stressed that he was prepared to work constructively with the alliance.
...Rogozin told a news conference when asked about taking his jingoist reputation to the Western military alliance he has accused of carrying out the "aggressive interests of the United States."
Rogozin accused Washington of violating NATO solidarity by offering a missile-defense shield to former Warsaw Pact members Poland and the Czech Republic.
Elements of the missile shield located in the two countries could make them targets for "hypothetical missile attacks," he said.
Rogozin complained that while NATO claimed a threat from the south, the alliance had expanded eastward. "Maybe their compass is out of whack," he said.
Russia can help with directional difficulties, Rogozin said, "We have our own [compass]."
Beelzebubalicious
01-26-2008, 09:47 PM
hypothetical missiles and wacky compasses...this should be fun.
bourbon
01-28-2008, 01:41 AM
It is being reported (http://news.google.com/news?ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&tab=wn&ncl=1126895986&hl=en)that Semion Mogilevich has been arrested in Moscow.
Beelzebubalicious
01-28-2008, 07:57 AM
The brainy don caught for tax evasion....I wonder how many oligarchs pay taxes? anyone know what the percentage of Russian citizens pay taxes? How many are prosecuted? Not that it really matters...
The bigger story is the links to New York Bank, and alleged sales of arms and tanks to Iran...He laundered $10 billion through the Bank of New York in the 90s, but...
Last year the company settled its part of a federal investigation into a Russian money laundering ring, agreeing to pay $26 million in fines and repay $12 million in fees to other banks that may have lost money.
Ouch - that almost hurt
http://www.forbes.com/2007/05/17/bony-russia-lawsuit-biz-services-cx_lm_0517suit.html
Also note that:
Russia’s customs service said that it was suing the Bank of New York for $22.5 billion (£11.3 billion) in compensation for an alleged money-laundering scheme in which US companies colluded with Russian banks to defraud its Government.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article1805811.ece
I wonder now if "Russia's Customs Service" will now be compensated for the wrongs done to them by this bad, bad man...
Of course, all these excesses of the 90s are now cleaned up and our illustrious financial institutions have much tighter controls...
I'm sorry, but the only way to approach this subject is to pour on the sarcasm and let it drip...
"It's an international spy nest (http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2008/01/28/023.html)," Tretyakov said of the UN
From oil for food scandals, Anti-American information to a nuclear bomb stored in a shed :eek:
UNITED NATIONS -- A former Russian top spy says his agents helped the government steal nearly $500 million from the UN's oil-for-food program in Iraq before the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Tretyakov, former deputy head of intelligence at Russia's UN mission from 1995 to 2000, names some names... a Canadian nuclear weapons expert who became a UN nuclear verification expert in Vienna, a senior Russian official in the oil-for-food program and a former Soviet bloc ambassador. He describes a Russian businessman who got hold of a nuclear bomb, and kept it stored in a shed at his dacha outside Moscow.
Tretyakov, 51, had never spoken out about his spying before this week, when he granted his first news media interviews to publicize a book published Thursday. Written by former Washington Post journalist Pete Earley, the book is titled "Comrade J.: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy in America after the End of the Cold War."
bourbon
01-28-2008, 03:53 PM
I'm sorry, but the only way to approach this subject is to pour on the sarcasm and let it drip...
Sarcasm is always appreciated on my end. I think a healthy cynicism on this matter is more than warranted, and any questions we may have here about justice should be deferred for the time being. What does this mean though? Is this related to the power struggle? Windrow dressing for the rule of law?
RIA Novosti Opinion & Analysis (http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080129/97936766.html), In a move that mirrors recent discussion amongst Russia's own top brass, NATO's April summit in Bucharest is widely expected to discuss a report on a potential pre-emptive nuclear strike.
If General Baluyevsky's words are heeded, Russia will have to equip all services of the Armed Forces with permanently combat-ready nuclear weapons. Nobody can guess who will use them first. If the new doctrine endorses the General Staff's nuclear ideas, we will have new armed forces, with all the ensuing consequences.
First, these forces will become strictly offensive because of the very nature of a pre-emptive strike. This will require totally different mobilization plans and a new approach to recruiting for the Army and Navy. Considering the number and geography of military-political conflicts in which Russia is in some way involved, this will require the deployment of mobilized troops on a territory stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific.
It is not difficult to predict the economic consequences Russia would face in this case. But let's come back to the Armed Forces.
More at the link
Putin wasted little time last night with a soft spoken message for President Yushchenko. With the gas problems clouded over for now, it was time to pull out the cheap threats.
The Stick
UKRAINE-NATO COOPERATION (http://en.rian.ru/world/20080212/99058682.html)
Commenting on Ukraine's bid for NATO membership, Putin said it was the country's internal affair, but called on Kiev to think about the consequences of the move.
"Joining NATO means Ukraine having its sovereignty limited. If Ukraine wants its sovereignty restricted, it is the country's own business," Putin said.
Referring to U.S. plans to deploy missile defense elements in Europe, the Russian leader said, "We believe that they are aimed at neutralizing our nuclear missile capability, which means Russia is faced with the necessity of responding."
"It is terrifying even to think that in response [to Ukraine allowing anti-missile defenses to be deployed on its territory] Russia could target its nuclear missile systems against Ukraine. This is what worries us," Putin said.
The Carrot
URANIUM AND MORE
The two presidents reached an agreement to consider Ukraine joining the international uranium enrichment center in Angarsk, East Siberia, which will operate under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The two parties also agreed to draft an agreement to regulate intellectual property rights and an intergovernmental program for state support to companies implementing projects in high-technology and for the resumption of production of the An-124 Ruslan high-capacity aircraft.
More on the gas at the link
Beelzebubalicious
02-13-2008, 10:41 AM
Yeah, if you want to face nuclear annihilation, that's your choice....and if Ukraine wants to bind itself to a foreign power and limit its sovereignty, then let it do that...Does anyone here have any irony? Do they hear themselves talk? Do they think anyone will buy this?
It's not so much a fraternal thing as a mother-child relationship. The Soviet family is broken apart and Ukraine not only chooses to live on its own, breaking mother Russia's heart, but then turns around and tries to screw mother russia. What's a mother to do?
Tankguy
02-13-2008, 04:14 PM
Is the current political scene in Russia due largely to Putin's ties to a reminiscense of the good old bad old days of the hard line Soviets? One would seem to think that the end of the era would have indicated an end to that school of thought.
Is the current political scene in Russia due largely to Putin's ties to a reminiscense of the good old bad old days of the hard line Soviets? One would seem to think that the end of the era would have indicated an end to that school of thought.
Hey Tankguy !
I wouldn't go as far as saying 'reminiscence of the good 'ol days'. Putin's nowhere near Soviet mentality, but he maintains Russian perceptions and how their history still dictates current thinking...threat of domination from western powers.
This current row with The Ukraine and Georgia is all about closing up the borders. With NATO and perhaps EU and WTO memberships, Russia's favorite concern with Serbia and (break away) Kosovo will be overcome by events. Imagine Serbia as Russia's only remaining ally, but not able to support them (other than flying or sailing around Europe to get there (hope they're not in a big hurry for resupply !).
Here's a quick and excellent 7-page read from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (http://www.upi-fiia.fi/document.php?DOC_ID=241#BP_15_Baev.pdf).
Russia's Security Policy Grows "Muscular": Should the West Be Worried?
Expanding demonstrations of the dilapidated strategic arsenal increase the risks of technical failures but fall far short of initiating a new confrontation of the Cold War type.
The most worrisome point in Russia’s ambivalent power policy is Georgia, which has been the target of choice for multiple propaganda attacks, but which now faces the challenge of an external intervention in its domestic crises since Moscow has built up usable military instruments in the North Caucasus.
Russia’s desire to secure higher international status does not amount to malicious revisionism; so over-reaction to its experiments with muscle-flexing could constitute a greater risk to the Western strategy of engagement than underestimating its ambitions.
Tankguy
02-13-2008, 04:47 PM
I am familiar with the Russian fear of invasion by the West, but I cannot see how a missle defense system is viewed as an offensive threat by the Russians. From Putin's comments, it would seem that the perceived threat stems from the missle defenses neutralizing the Russian nuclear arsenal. That would be a defensive move would it not? I can appreciate that it is on the Russian door step, but can't Russia appreciate the fact that we are bit busy at minute to be planning an invasion of the Motherland?
Rob Thornton
02-13-2008, 04:59 PM
Tankguy - don't constrain yourself to just thinking about paranoia or fear, there is also opportunity to gain power, or to deny it to others. There is money to be made, and there is political power to be wielded - even if you don't know what's in the tree - you might shake it a little to see what comes loose - if you don't like it, just leave it laying on the ground, or shake it some more.
My point is that these guys are great at figuring out ways to get what they want, and from a cost benefit sort of perspective - raising hell about Missile Defense - something we really want is bound to produce something they would not have gotten by being silent - combine that with their oil wealth and power (in terms of the greater European sense), and you get some pretty good political credibility - we can't just ignore. They don't have much to lose by raining hell, but they do stand to gain.
Best, Rob
tequila
02-13-2008, 05:06 PM
Neutralizing the Russian nuclear deterrent could be seen as the first step to allowing offensive moves against Russia, since the U.S. will have removed Russia's strongest shield against conventional invasion. Combined with extending NATO to Russia's borders, it is easy to see how that Russia would feel threatened by this on a grand strategic level.
We would never countenance Mexico joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, for instance, especially if China had the beginnings of a way to neutralize our nuclear deterrent.
I am familiar with the Russian fear of invasion by the West, but I cannot see how a missle defense system is viewed as an offensive threat by the Russians. From Putin's comments, it would seem that the perceived threat stems from the missle defenses neutralizing the Russian nuclear arsenal. That would be a defensive move would it not? I can appreciate that it is on the Russian door step, but can't Russia appreciate the fact that we are bit busy at minute to be planning an invasion of the Motherland?
Missile defense defends the Western from retaliation by a Russian missile attack, should the West elect to start offensive (nuclear or conventional) operations against the Russians. Back in the good old days of Cold War deterrrence via mutually assured destruction (MAD), the Anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty was a way to prevent the same kind of protection of one's own forces (or territory, since the Sovs were putting their ABMs around Moscow IIRC), which would have made MAD a non-starter. Historically, Russia has tried to protect Mother Russia by putting a belt of client buffer states between its enemies and its heartland. This is arguably the same thing that the US is now trying to do with its forward deployed missile defense system, or at least this may be a russian perception off what is going on. Having client states also has other benefits with regard to economic exploitation; they can serve as both a captive market for one's exports and a potentially cheaper source of raw materials (which also includes labor).
And as Rob pointed out, this posturing may be little more than a ruse to try to extract concessions in other areas that are important to the Russian leadership. It could be as simple as Putin's needing to look tough to the folks at home so they think he is really showing a strong hand leading the country--sort of a Potemkin village to hide other woes.
Hey Eric !
Yeah, if you want to face nuclear annihilation, that's your choice....and if Ukraine wants to bind itself to a foreign power and limit its sovereignty, then let it do that...
The President took the whole Carrot (http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11966951) :eek:
From the Urban Dictionary (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=all+bets+are+off): an expression meaning a situation in which one factor alone can change or cancel out everything
Well now, looks like Ukrainians will no longer have to concern themselves with being annihilated as the former Russian red-headed stepchild (damn, we need a rocket scientist herein to explain ballistic missile trajectory that close to the launch pads).
MOSCOW. Feb 13 (Interfax) - Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said in an attempt to allay Russia's concerns that the Ukrainian Constitution rules out the stationing of foreign military bases on the country's territory.
"If the issue is that our neighbor worries about the deployment of a NATO military base, then apparently this issue will never be on the agenda. As you know, the Ukrainian Constitution stipulates that the Ukrainian territory cannot be used for the deployment of foreign military bases," Yushchenko said at a meeting with the Ukrainian diaspora in Russia on Wednesday in Moscow.
"If there are topics sensitive to Russia, we are ready to discuss them. We do not want to damage [Russia's national interests] by our moves," the Ukrainian president said.
Ron Humphrey
02-14-2008, 12:28 AM
Hey Eric !
The President took the whole Carrot (http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11966951) :eek:
Well now, looks like Ukrainians will no longer have to concern themselves with being annihilated as the former Russian red-headed stepchild (damn, we need a rocket scientist herein to explain ballistic missile trajectory that close to the launch pads).
Ukrainian territory cannot be used for the deployment of foreign military bases
Does that mean absolutely no Russian bases either?? :rolleyes:
Beelzebubalicious
02-14-2008, 07:30 AM
Does that mean absolutely no Russian bases either??
There's nothing absolute out here. What's the definition of a military base or deployment or foreign? What about the autonomous republic of Crimea? Is that technically Ukrainian territory? What about th e Constitution? Does is even matter?
I agree with Rob that it's about raising hell and I think Putin and company enjoy it.
As for the carrot, Stan, Yuschenko has taken a whole lot more than that. ...
Beelzebubalicious
02-29-2008, 02:35 PM
This is a pretty good little article on Russia's use of soft power. Besides this, there's the recent signing up of Serbia and Hungary to the South Stream gas pipeline. Russia is winning this economic battle vs. the U.S. and EU...
RUSSIAN SOFT-POWER INCREASING IN AZERBAIJAN
By Fariz Ismailzade
Friday, February 29, 2008
Following Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004, political analysts predicted that the Kremlin would step up its efforts to conquer the hearts and minds of people living in the post-Soviet region. This “soft diplomacy” has long been a powerful tool for Western democracies, and it is no longer a secret that Russian political experts have advised official Moscow to use similar tactics to overcome the Soviet successor states’ obsession with Euro-Atlantic integration.
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372845
Jedburgh
03-01-2008, 01:02 PM
International Affairs, Mar 08: 'New Cold War' or 'Twenty Years' Crisis'? Russia and International Politics (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/ia/download/-/id/2268)
The debate over the dynamics of Russian foreign policy has become ever more closely tied to controversy over the ‘regime question’: the problem of the nature of the political system that took shape during Vladimir Putin’s two terms as president between 2000 and 2008. Indeed, it appeared that one could not be understood without the other being taken into account. While foreign policy can never be dealt with in isolation from domestic constraints, the collapse of the one category into the other in the discourse of the late Putin years is reminiscent of the essentialism that characterized debate in the Soviet era. This is just one example of the way in which, in a structural sense, Cold War patterns of thinking have once again surfaced in discussion about Russia and its role in the world. Putin’s second term as president from 2004 was accompanied by ever more insistent suggestions that a new Cold War was in the making. This article will try to place these concerns in context and to provide both an empirical and a theoretical analysis of why the notion of ‘Cold War’ has returned to haunt us once again. It will deal with issues both substantive—namely, whether we are indeed entering a period that can be described as a Cold War—and discursive—why the category of Cold War remains so stubbornly entrenched in our understanding of international politics in general, and in relations with Russia in particular. I will begin by looking at the framework of Russian policy between 2000 and 2006, a period characterized by what we call a ‘new realism’. From here I will move on to the unravelling of the new realism from 2006, and will then consider the features and causes of the putative ‘new Cold War’......
Complete 27 page paper at the link.
Surferbeetle
05-24-2008, 10:58 AM
"Oil transforms a Russian outpost" from the June edition of National Geographic (http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/06/siberian-oil/paul-starobin-text/1). They have spiffed up the attached map from the EIA but I am unable to find National Geo's map to upload.
The pumping heart of the boom is western Siberia's boggy oil fields, which produce around 70 percent of Russia's oil—some seven million barrels a day. For Khanty-Mansi, a territory nearly the size of France, the bonanza provides an unparalleled opportunity to create modern, even desirable living conditions in a region whose very name evokes a harsh, desolate place. Khanty-Mansi's regional capital, scene of the holiday revelries, is being rebuilt with oil-tax proceeds. The new structures include an airport terminal (once a wooden shack with an outhouse), an art museum featuring paintings by 19th-century Russian masters, and a pair of lavishly equipped boarding schools for children gifted in mathematics and the arts. Even the provincial town of Surgut, a backwater only a few decades ago, is laying out new suburbs and is plagued by traffic jams.
The Problematic Pages
by Leon Aron
To understand Vladimir Putin, we must understand his view of Russian history.
Post Date Wednesday, September 24, 2008
On June 18, 2007, a national conference of high school historians and teachers of social sciences was convened in Moscow. The agenda called for the discussion of "the acute problems in the teaching of modern Russian history," and for "the development of the state standards of education." It soon became clear that the real purpose of the gathering was to present to the delegates--or, more precisely, to impress upon them--two recently finished "manuals for teachers." One of them, to be published in a pilot print run of ten thousand, was called Noveyshaya Istoriya Rossii, 1945-2006 GG: Kniga Dlya Uchitelya, or The Modern History of Russia, 1945-2006: A Teacher's Handbook. It was the work of a certain A.V. Filippov, and it was designed to become the standard Russian high school textbook of Russian history, scheduled to be introduced into classrooms this month.
http://www.tnr.com/booksarts/story.html?id=27ab9fbc-6e71-4795-8608-5875a0ce6fb6
Flirting with Stalin.
"Dear friends! The textbook you are holding in your hands is dedicated to the history of our Motherland… from the end of the Great Patriotic War to our days. We will trace the journey of the Soviet Union from its greatest historical triumph to its tragic disintegration."
http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=10356
bismark17
09-13-2008, 05:13 PM
Sigh.....I guess the blackhats will again be singing that old cadence, "Hey Mother Russia, you better behave or we will fill your skies with maroon berets...."
Nationalism of Putin’s Era Veils Sins of Stalin’s
The Kremlin in the Putin era has often sought to maintain as much sway over the portrayal of history as over the governing of the country. In seeking to restore Russia’s standing, Mr. Putin and other officials have stoked a nationalism that glorifies Soviet triumphs while playing down or even whitewashing the system’s horrors.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/27/world/europe/27archives.html?hp
Jedburgh
11-27-2008, 01:39 PM
RAD, 18 Nov 08: Social Movements and the State in Russia (http://sedev.isn.ch:80/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=PublishingHouse&fileid=7857CF61-21D3-9689-EBDD-069FF9AD347F&lng=en)
Analysis
Russia’s “Nashi” Youth Movement: The Rise and Fall of a Putin-Era Political Technology Project
Opinion Poll
“Nashi” and Patriotism
Participation of Young People in Politics
The Sixteen-Year-Olds of Today
Analysis
The Web That Failed: How the Russian State Co-opted a Growing Internet Opposition Movement
Surferbeetle
12-08-2008, 02:41 AM
From today's NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/technology/internet/06security.html?_r=1&em)
There have been some recent successes, but they are short-lived. On Nov. 11, the volume of spam, which transports the malware, dropped by half around the globe after an Internet service provider disconnected the McColo Corporation, an American firm with Russian ties, from the Internet. But the respite is not expected to last long as cybercriminals regain control of their spam-generating computers.
“Modern worms are stealthier and they are professionally written,” said Bruce Schneier, chief security technology officer for British Telecom. “The criminals have gone upmarket, and they’re organized and international because there is real money to be made.”
Beelzebubalicious
12-08-2008, 05:30 PM
Ironically, I think the biggest hindrance to the spread of spam and viruses is the poor quality of the English in these messages. I routinely get clever and well designed spam with some horrible English errors.
Beelzebubalicious
01-16-2009, 05:43 PM
This report from the Eurasia Daily Monitor of the Jamestown Foundation was pretty interesting. It's titled:
Gazprom’s Destabilization Plan for Ukraine and Southeast Europe (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34367&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=c6e85f0826)
The USG is putting more attention and resources into the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, but I don't know how they can counter the Russians. In the story is a link to another story about riots in Bulgaria. Ukraine may well be next...
Gringo Malandro
01-16-2009, 10:06 PM
This report from the Eurasia Daily Monitor of the Jamestown Foundation was pretty interesting. It's titled:
Gazprom’s Destabilization Plan for Ukraine and Southeast Europe (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34367&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=c6e85f0826)
The USG is putting more attention and resources into the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, but I don't know how they can counter the Russians. In the story is a link to another story about riots in Bulgaria. Ukraine may well be next...
Maybe we should leave it to the Europeans to counter the Russians, since they are so critical of our foreign policy. We should at least counter them in the Western Hemisphere first. And on that topic, we have other things to worry about closer to home.
On the other hand, a closer relationship with Turkey could be an asset.
Jedburgh
01-17-2009, 02:21 PM
EastWeek, 14 Jan 09: Escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict (http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/epub/EW/2009/090114/01.htm)
....Russia appeared to be acting in a deliberately provocative manner, with an ad hoc objective of further discrediting Ukraine and undermining the international credibility of both the country and its authorities. By escalating the conflict, Moscow is aiming to ultimately take control over Ukraine's strategically important transit gas pipelines, destabilise the internal situation in the country, and perhaps provoke a change of government in Kyiv. Russia also wants a greater EU involvement in the conflict, so that it can try to manipulate Brussels into helping it to impose Moscow's conditions on Ukraine. Russia also aims to boost EU support for the projects to build gas pipelines bypassing Ukrainian territory. Moscow's tough and decisive behaviour suggests that the Russian leadership is determined to achieve its goals, irrespective of the political or economic costs including the negative impact this will have on Russia's relations with the West......
CH, The World Today: Ukraine, Russia and Energy: Final Warning (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/13066_wt0209sherr.pdf)
Twice within the past five months, the inevitable has provoked surprise. When Russia’s Gazprom halted its daily delivery of ninety million cubic meters of gas to Ukraine on January 1, Europe’s political leaders were marginally less astounded than they were by the outbreak of conflict in Georgia in early August. But as in August, the dynamic of escalation has caught them completely off guard. Keeping control of a European energy policy requires a much smarter game......
Surferbeetle
01-18-2009, 05:05 PM
From today’s BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7834796.stm)
At his news conference with Mrs Tymoshenko, Mr Putin said that discounts for both Russian gas supplied to Ukraine and the transit rate charged by Kiev would apply for the current year.
"We agreed that in 2009 our Ukrainian partners will have a discount of 20% on condition that the preferential tariff for piping Russian gas to European consumers through Ukraine in 2009 remains in force and that the price for piping will be the price of 2008," he said.
"We also agreed that from 1 January 2010 we will entirely move to price and tariff formation fully in accordance with European standards without any exemptions or discounts as regards both the transit and the price of gas."
European-level prices for gas supplies will mean, at current rates, a jump from $179.5 per 1,000 cubic metres to $380 for Ukraine, according to the Kremlin.
BBC Map (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7834796.stm#map) of Russia’s Gas Lines to Europe
Gazprom (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom) backgrounder by wikipedia
Total gas production in Russia in 2007 was 23.1 Trillion cubic feet, of which 85 percent (19.4 Tcf) was produced by Gazprom;[3] with reserves of 28,800 cubic kilometres (181,000 Gbbl), it controls 16 percent of the world's gas reserves (as of 2004,[4] including the Shtokman field). After acquisition of the oil company Sibneft, Gazprom, with 119 billion barrels (18.9 km3) of reserves, ranks behind only Saudi Arabia, with 263 billion barrels (41.8 km3), and Iran, with 133 billion barrels (21.1 km3), as the world's biggest owner of oil and oil equivalent in natural gas.[5]
By the end of 2004 Gazprom was the sole gas supplier to at least Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Republic of Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, and provided 97 percent of Bulgaria's gas, 89 percent of Hungary's, 86 percent of Poland's, nearly three-quarters of the Czech Republic's, 67 percent of Turkey's, 65 percent of Austria's, about 40 percent of Romania's, 36 percent of Germany's, 27 percent of Italy's, and 25 percent of France's.[6][7] The European Union as a whole gets about 25 percent of its gas supplies from this company.[8][9]
Apart from its gas reserves and the world's longest pipeline network (150,000 km), it also controls assets in banking, insurance, media, construction and agriculture.
Naftohaz (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naftohaz_Ukrainy) backgrounder by wikipedia
NJSC Naftohaz Ukrainy or Naftogaz of Ukraine or Naftogas of Ukraine (Ukrainian: Нафтогаз України, literally: Oil&Gas of Ukraine) is the state company[1] of Ukraine concerned with extraction, transportation, and refinement of natural gas and crude oil.
In 2005 the company became embroiled in a dispute over the natural gas prices with Russian state company Gazprom, which was ended on 4 January 2006. In January 2009 the company was the center of a similar conflict.[1]
On October 24, 2008, Gazprom and Naftogaz signed a long-term cooperation deal in which it was decided that Ukraine will receive Russian natural gas directly from Gazprom and Naftogaz will be the sole importer of Russian natural gas.[2].
The company has been accused by Gazprom of "stealing gas" earmarked for Europe.[3]
E.On Ruhrgas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.ON) backgrounder by wikipedia
E.ON AG (FWB: EOAN), an energy corporation based in Düsseldorf, Germany, is one of the 30 members of the DAX stock index of major German companies and a member of the "Global Titans 50" index. Its chief executive officer (Vorstandsvorsitzender) is Dr. Wulf H. Bernotat. The name comes from the Greek word aeon.[2]
Russia (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/Background.html) Energy Backgrounder by EIA
In 2007, Russia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 8.1 percent, surpassing average growth rates in all other G8 countries, and marking the country’s seventh consecutive year of economic expansion. Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period. Internally, Russia gets over half of its domestic energy needs from natural gas, up from around 49 percent in 1992. Since then, the share of energy use from coal and nuclear has stayed constant, while energy use from oil has decreased from 27 percent to around 19 percent.
Germany (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Germany/Background.html) Energy Backgrounder by EIA
Owning to its large economy, Germany is one of the world’s largest energy consumers. In 2004, the country consumed 14.7 quadrillion British Thermal Units (Btu) of total energy, the fifth-largest amount in the world. Besides coal, Germany does not possess any sizable hydrocarbon reserves, so the country must rely upon imports to meet the majority of its energy needs. The lack of domestic hydrocarbon resources has led Germany to become a world leader in the development of renewable energy technologies, with the country becoming the world’s largest producer of biodiesel and generator of electricity from wind.
Surferbeetle
01-18-2009, 05:32 PM
From the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/CAR111008A.htm)
A $16.4 billion loan for Ukraine, approved by the IMF's Executive Board on November 5, will help the government strengthen confidence and restore economic stability after the country became the latest victim of the financial crisis sweeping the global economy.
Until the financial crisis hit the world economy in mid-2008, Ukraine was riding on the coattails of a global economy that had an insatiable demand for steel—a commodity that constitutes 40 percent of the country's exports, earning $17 billion a year in revenues. The government passed on the gains from high economic and steel exports growth to the population through generous incomes policies.
Together with rising capital inflows, this fueled an unprecedented consumption boom—and a rising current account deficit. By 2008, the economy had overheated, with inflation running at 25-30 percent, wages being hiked by 30-40 percent, and the import bill growing by 50-60 percent.
Fuchs
01-19-2009, 01:13 PM
Strange. Why should one need to "counter" the Russians?
Cooperation should still be in the repertoire of foreign policy.
The Russians/Gazprom do now EXACTLY what a rational economist in charge would do:
1) Don't give your goods away to someone who didn't buy them.
2) Don't sell your goods at a tiny fraction of their worth.
The Eastern European non-NATO nations got natural gas for a half or less of the price charged on the Western Europeans. The Ukraine did not negotiate a new contract that satisfied the Russians in time, so they didn't get any deliveries any more. It needs no evil plan for this; rational economic behavior is enough explanation.
It's understandable that Russia subsidizes close friends like Belarus, but there's no reason for subsidizing Ukraine, a nation that has a Russian minority that's a regional majority in some places and doesn't want to talk about this.
The(first) article is about a small great power game; such things happen all the time in our world and our governments aren't exactly role models for fairness either.
By the way; the U.S.Americans and the British have in my opinion still no right to criticize Russia for its comparably civil great power games. Great powers who waged a war of aggression should better wait for a decade or two till they criticize others' great power games.
The Russians pursue their interests with great rationality and demonstrated the ability to limit their aims to what's easily achievable. That's a great situation for cooperation. Most of their national interests are justifiable - security against invasion in general and advance of a nearby foreign alliance, for example.
Putin knows about the limits of Russia's abilities (unlike the USA and UK) and this limits the problems that he creates.
We can fall back to containment strategies once Russia recovered as state, society and military from the downfall of the 90's and the sins of the 70's.
Beelzebubalicious
01-19-2009, 05:04 PM
Good post, Fuchs. There is certainly rationality to the way the Russians behave, but we make great mistakes by assuming it means the same thing here (or that we can act on it in the same way we do in the US). There is always a bit of the Matrioshka (doll within a doll within a doll) going on and so what interests do you play to?
As you allude to, I also think the Russians understand the power games and how the West plays them better than the West understand how Russia plays. For example, the USG was playing the missile defense shield power game and Russia was countering that with some bluster, but meanwhile, there was all kinds of other backroom subterfuge going on.
What we don't see is the bribery/influence/corruption, especially within high levels of government in places like Ukraine. Europe is now throwing a lot of money into Ukraine with perhaps the same effect (buying allegiance, gaining leverage). What interests me is how far each side will go and what boundaries or lines they'll draw in these power games.
Surferbeetle
01-19-2009, 05:23 PM
Mutually beneficent cooperation is an important goal. What do you see the German census to be? From a pure engineering standpoint this is a cool project, but things are rarely that simple…
Nordstream (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream) backgrounder by wikipedia
Nord Stream (Russian: Северный поток Severnyy potok, German: Nordeuropäische Gasleitung, Polish: Gazociąg Północny; former names: North Transgas and North European Gas Pipeline; also known as the Russo–German gas pipeline or the Baltic Sea gas pipeline) is a planned natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany by the company Nord Stream AG. The name of Nord Stream refers usually to the offshore pipeline between Vyborg, Russia, and Greifswald, Germany, but sometimes it may have wider meaning, which includes the onshore pipeline in Russia and further connections in Western Europe.
The project, which is promoted by Russia and Germany, is seen as controversial both for environmental concerns and national security risks in some countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, which favour overland pipelines across their countries' territories.
Nordstream (http://www.nord-stream.com/en/) Company Website
Nord Stream will transport up to 55 billion cubic metres of gas each year. This is enough to supply more than 25 million households.
Nord Stream is more than just a pipeline. It is a new channel for Russian natural gas exports, and a major infrastructure project which sets a new benchmark in EU-Russia cooperation.
Gerhard Schroder (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der) backgrounder by wikipedia
Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schröder (help·info) IPA: [ˌɡeɐ̯haɐ̯t fʁɪʦ kʊɐ̯t ˈʃʁøːdɐ] (7 April 1944) is a German politician, and was Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2005. A member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), he led a coalition government of the SPD and the Greens. Before becoming a full-time politician, he was a lawyer, and before becoming Chancellor he was Minister-president of the German state of Lower Saxony. Following the 2005 federal election, which his party lost, after three weeks of negotiations he stood down as Chancellor in favour of Angela Merkel of the rival Christian Democratic Union.
Spiegel (http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/artikel/0,2828,536176,00.html) on cold war legacies of mistrust
Die schwedische Regierung rügt das deutsch-russische Unternehmen Nord Stream und könnte somit für Verzögerungen des geplanten Ostseepipeline-Projekts sorgen. Nord-Stream-Chairman Gerhard Schröder ist nicht amüsiert: Denn hinter den Umweltauflagen verbergen sich weit tiefere Ängste der Skandinavier.
My translation…
“The Swedish Government has criticized the planned Baltic sea pipeline Nord Stream, a German-Russian undertaking, and can provide reasons why. Nord Stream’s Chairman Gerhard Schroder is not amused: Behind the environmental concerns are deeply buried Scandinavian fears. “
Dilligner Hutte (http://www.dillinger.de/dh/unternehmen/struktur/index.shtml.en) company website. Pipeline material
Ron Humphrey
01-19-2009, 07:01 PM
Strange. Why should one need to "counter" the Russians?
Cooperation should still be in the repertoire of foreign policy.
The Russians/Gazprom do now EXACTLY what a rational economist in charge would do:
1) Don't give your goods away to someone who didn't buy them.
2) Don't sell your goods at a tiny fraction of their worth.
Why indeed? Supply and demand right. And of course it's not unreasonable to expect them to work towards their own interests.
The Eastern European non-NATO nations got natural gas for a half or less of the price charged on the Western Europeans. The Ukraine did not negotiate a new contract that satisfied the Russians in time, so they didn't get any deliveries any more. It needs no evil plan for this; rational economic behavior is enough explanation..
True enough on the first part, not quite so sure about the latter
It's understandable that Russia subsidizes close friends like Belarus, but there's no reason for subsidizing Ukraine, a nation that has a Russian minority that's a regional majority in some places and doesn't want to talk about this.
The(first) article is about a small great power game; such things happen all the time in our world and our governments aren't exactly role models for fairness either..
While supporting your friends while sticking it to those who aren't may very well fall in the categories of both rational and well within the realm of "normal" governmental behaviours; still not certain that the particular means in this case match any rational expectations for ends in that it seems to presume that an awful lot of folks are gonna go along with it simply because they have no other choice.
If one considers Surferbeetle's posts above:
OK, Russia has product and the ability to demand an "acceptable" payment for it. They are concerned that should certain countries through which said product would have to flow have disagreement with errr their particular mode of barter or some actions then said supply might be interrupted thereby by costing them more than they might want to pay, both in loss of monetary income as well as any larger actions which might be required in order to get the product flowing again.
So thus the game begins, what to do what to do????
OH If we get an alternate line through a country with whom we believe we can ensure continuous flow regardless what we choose to do elsewhere than it frees us to use both but helps minimize any sort of possible burden should the on land routes go down for any reason.
Here's the gist of my question to you. This may make great sense to Russia, Germany but exactly why in the world would anyone else there in the region who looks to suffer so great a risk from such things(It's not exactly like Russia has tried hiding their intent) choose to rationally accept or help facilitate such a thing. And in such case exactly how rational is it to think that theres not going to be a ton of issues in doing it.
All part of the game right.
By the way; the U.S.Americans and the British have in my opinion still no right to criticize Russia for its comparably civil great power games. Great powers who waged a war of aggression should better wait for a decade or two till they criticize others' great power games.
The Russians pursue their interests with great rationality and demonstrated the ability to limit their aims to what's easily achievable. That's a great situation for cooperation. Most of their national interests are justifiable - security against invasion in general and advance of a nearby foreign alliance, for example.
Putin knows about the limits of Russia's abilities (unlike the USA and UK) and this limits the problems that he creates.
We can fall back to containment strategies once Russia recovered as state, society and military from the downfall of the 90's and the sins of the 70's.
While much of what you state carrys truth, it might be important to note that we at least try to learn from our mistakes rather than simply trying to find different ways to pull off the same ol tricks.:D
Ken White
01-19-2009, 07:27 PM
Strange. Why should one need to "counter" the Russians? Cooperation should still be in the repertoire of foreign policy.
By the way; the U.S.Americans and the British have in my opinion still no right to criticize Russia for its comparably civil great power games...The Russians pursue their interests with great rationality and demonstrated the ability to limit their aims to what's easily achievable.
We can fall back to containment strategies once Russia recovered as state, society and military from the downfall of the 90's and the sins of the 70's.Good points all.
Ken White
01-19-2009, 07:29 PM
...it might be important to note that we at least try to learn from our mistakes rather than simply trying to find different ways to pull off the same ol tricks.:Dwasn't I informed??? :D
Hey Eric !
What we don't see is the bribery/influence/corruption, especially within high levels of government in places like Ukraine. Europe is now throwing a lot of money into Ukraine with perhaps the same effect (buying allegiance, gaining leverage). What interests me is how far each side will go and what boundaries or lines they'll draw in these power games.
Yep, a shame we are a decade later stuck trying to convince people what is mistakenly concluded as "fair trade" :rolleyes: Some folks need and deserve a tour of reality I reckon. Just how many of those gas transactions were actually real transactions while Russia feeds her own elite?
The EU was already prepared to pay the aggregate price paid by most European countries (less than $300). That price would put the 3 Fat Pigs (well, one of them) in dire straights and have Gerhard wishing he never heard the name Nordstream.
BTW, I'm not altogether sure why "US Americans" (as apposed to those other Americans) has Delta to do with Russian gas and those pesky Ukrainians that give Putin nightmares :eek:
Time for a shower and beer !
Ron Humphrey
01-19-2009, 07:48 PM
wasn't I informed??? :D
Try:o
Whether or when we succeed may be when someone lets you know:wry:
Ken White
01-19-2009, 08:04 PM
Try:o
Whether or when we succeed may be when someone lets you know:wry:listening watch. :cool:
Fuchs
01-19-2009, 08:18 PM
Quote:
Die schwedische Regierung rügt das deutsch-russische Unternehmen Nord Stream und könnte somit für Verzögerungen des geplanten Ostseepipeline-Projekts sorgen. Nord-Stream-Chairman Gerhard Schröder ist nicht amüsiert: Denn hinter den Umweltauflagen verbergen sich weit tiefere Ängste der Skandinavier.
My translation…
“The Swedish Government has criticized the planned Baltic sea pipeline Nord Stream, a German-Russian undertaking, and can provide reasons why. Nord Stream’s Chairman Gerhard Schroder is not amused: Behind the environmental concerns are deeply buried Scandinavian fears. “
"The Swedish government admonished the German-Russian enterprise Nord-Stream and could cause delays in the planned Baltic Sea pipeline project by doing so. Nord-Stream-Chairman Gerhard Schröder is not amused: The reason is that deeply buried fears of the Skandinavians are behind the environmental regulations."
---------------
First of all; the issue was solved with a ten-year treaty and shouldn't resurface unless one of the involved states break the treaty or enters a war.
That would be problems in their own right and wouldn't be pipeline-specific.
It's imho a waste of time to think about alternative routes for pipelines; new pipelines in Eastern Europe don't solve the other problem; the Europeans want to buy relatively cheap Russian gas (and the Russians want to sell it), but they want to diversify as well.
One approach is to increase the import of Algerian natural gas - with LNG technology. That means very short additional pipelines to specialized LNG terminals in some harbors. Projects for Wilhelmshafen and Rotterdam were or are in work.
Another approach is to decrease natural gas consumption - a typical European approach to energy supply problems since the 70's.
Natural gas has near-perfect substitutes in all its uses. Mankind does not need natural gas - it can do the same things with coal products.
* Natural gas replaced coal gas in the 70's for heating/cooking in residential areas (in Berlin and Eastern Europe only in the 90's).
* Natural gas powerplants are quick reaction peak supply tools, but not necessary for the base supply. Improved coal and even nuclear powerplant technologies can replace it in that role (and a special type of water power, but not on large scale).
* Natural gas is also in use in steel production. Alternative technologies use electricity and/or coke as far as I know.
* Natural gas-driven vehicles: No need for such a thing, it's a stupid idea anyway.
-----
The real challenge is to find issues where we can cooperate with Russia and turn them (and us) away from a "us vs. them" line of thinking. Let them worry about China, not us. Our politicians should not just have meetings with Putin & his clique, but also reach out to the Russian people.
There are opportunities - we would just need to use them.
It's so much cheaper and more pleasant to solve the situation the smart way with diplomacy and cooperation instead of a easy&primitive fall back to the wasteful Cold War.
At least some people should have understood by now that the Western World isn't in great shape, has huge society, state & fiscal challenges now and ahead - and that we could ill afford such a wasteful path as another Cold War.
Couple links about book "Gazprom: new Russian weapon"
http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2008/03/book_review_gazprom_russias_ne.htm
http://www.kommersant.com/p845604/Gazprom_Business_Gas/
I think that Brzezinski's article is ok for this topic
These words also underline the significant distinction between China’s and Russia’s conduct on the international scene. Russia, like China, is a revisionist power in that it wishes to revise the existing international patterns; but in pursuit of this end it tends towards impatience, frustration and sometimes even posturing in a threatening fashion. Nonetheless, it is in the interest of the United States and of Europe to engage Russia, with regard to the larger strategic issues as well as more specifically European geopolitical dilemmas.
Unfortunately, the current generation of Russian leaders, notably Putin, are still unable to come to terms with Russia’s diminished global status and its regional realities. It is unreconciled to the loss of its empire. It is unwilling to come to terms with its totalitarian and specifically its Stalinist experience. The Foreign Minister of Russia recently declared that to equate Nazism and Stalinism is ‘a blasphemy’. Yet there are millions of people in Europe who recall that the two were profoundly similar and equally inhuman to their victims. The difficult process of self-recognition will take time until a new Russian elite emerges.
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/121637300/PDFSTART
"Gas trade is one of the principal tools that Russia uses to increase its leverage on the Ukrainian leadership, seeking to change the country's geopolitical direction."
Under the current circumstances, Gazprom is interested in escalating the gas price, seeking to earn top dollar from Ukraine while it is still possible, while Naftohaz, Gazprom's Ukrainian counterpart, appears to be in no position to pay it. In the "dual monopoly" situation, the pricing dispute inevitably leads to a perfect deadlock: one side cuts off the gas while the other shuts down the transit pipe. This happened many times before; the only difference is that now Moscow and Kyiv are acting with particular abandon, being engaged in what appears to be a "struggle to the death." (http://www.upi-fiia.fi/en/news/606/)
If you consider the fact that a lot of heavy and mining industry (that are dependent on cheap energy) are located in the east of Ukraine, where most of population are Russians, then I smell problems :rolleyes:
This is only one demonstration of Russia's dictate. Using the small presence of European capital in the Eastern region, Russian businessmen invest in the Ukrainian economy in a peculiar way: they buy controlling stakes of strategic enterprises. Russia is interested in oil processing, aluminum, the power industry and ports on the Black Sea coast. Russia isn't against buying the Crimean peninsula - the whole of it, up to "the waves on the coast".
On the other hand, Russia is indifferent to Eastern Ukrainian coal and its metallurgical industry. First of all, the chain "coal - coke - iron ore - rolling - pipes" is the main income of all the self-sufficient local businessmen. There are oligarchs in Donbass who possess not only metals. Hotels and the beer industry, newspapers and machinery construction, banks and soccer clubs, many agricultural companies all are in their hands. Actually, Donbass is a "joint-stock company" of "The Party of Regions" members.
Further, the Ukrainian metallurgical industry is a competitor of the same sector of the Russian economy. As a rule, no one invests in competitors. But Ukrainians are more distressed by another thing - the weak investment between the Ukrainian regions, especially between the East and the West.
http://www.ukraine-observer.com/articles/192/300
Russians in Ukraine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russians_Ukraine_2001.PNG
Beelzebubalicious
01-27-2009, 08:43 PM
I've heard that the Russians are pretty much buying up as much of Crimea as they can. Akhmetov, Taruta and other oligarchs do own a lot of business interests in the East. the former is very much associated with the Party of Regions, but they play many sides.
Taruta, for example, was a key player in an award winning public private partnership with USAID in the city of Alchevsk and his Alchevsk Iron and Steel Works was awarded a loan from the EBRD for something like $190 million for upgrading the iron works for energy efficiency. On the other side, Russia's Gazmetall and Taruta's Industrial Union of Donbass (IUD) have concluded a landmark merger deal to create quite possibly the largest steel-making company in the CIS, with an annual output of around 20 million tonnes.
All's fair in business and war and everybody is in bed with each other.
This morning Russian business daily "Vedomosti" is writing that Putin's collegue from East German Stasi, Matthias Warning, will become one of the directors of Gazprom. Last week there was announcement that Gerhard Schröder will become one of the VIP's in TNK-BP. Both Germans are working in North Stream project etc :D
And to keep those pesky Scandinavians and Baltic States at bay...
Nordstream not only has Gerhard Schroeder at the helm, they've gone and found yet another former PM to force the Sierra through Scandinavia and the Baltic Seabed -- ex-Finnish PM Paavo Lipponen.
Putin’s Grasp of Energy Drives Russian Agenda
“I would describe it as very much his personal project,” said Clifford G. Gaddy, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and an expert in Russia’s energy policy. “It is the heart of what he has done from the very beginning.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/29/world/europe/29putin.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=world
I received a tip to go here (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldhansrd/text/81010-0002.htm#81010-0002.htm_spnew0), albeit dated information.
10.34 am
Lord Truscott: My Lords, I declare my relevant energy and other interests, as stated in the Lords’ Register of Interests and recorded by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments. I also declare an interest because I have a Russian wife, and as Vladimir Putin's biographer.
Incidentally, as Putin's biographer, I was never one of those who believed that the former president would
10 Oct 2008 : Column 419
quietly ride off into the sunset. Instead, what we now have is a political tandem, with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin firmly in the front seat and President Dmitry Medvedev holding up the rear.
The EU accounts for 81 per cent of Russia's pipeline gas exports and 60 per cent of its oil exports. As supplier and consumer, we are locked in a close mutual embrace. As the noble Lord, Lord Roper, said, production shortfalls and the falling price of oil, now under 85 dollars a barrel—incidentally, at under 70 dollars a barrel the Russian federal budget will be in difficulty—present a major threat, as do the production shortfalls themselves, to Russia's ability to meet its international and domestic commitments.
As a former energy Minister, I have a particular interest in energy matters, and I believe that the noble Lord, Lord Crickhowell, will expand on this theme in his speech. Despite the Government's response to our report, I still believe that we were right in the committee in arguing that pressing Russia for ratification of the energy charter treaty is a waste of time.
Beelzebubalicious
01-30-2009, 10:38 PM
seems more like 1908. okay guys, enough with the wigs and lords...
Regardless of whether it was Ukraine's fault or not, the EU is fed up with Ukraine. They now turn their eyes to Turkey and away from Ukraine.
Comment to my first post on this page.
A former Stasi (East German secret police) officer and current Nord Stream general manager Matthias Warnig traveled around the world this week to promote that Russo-German gas transport project on the Baltic seabed. Warnig now also serves as an "independent member" of the board of Russia's state-owned VneshTorgBank (Foreign Trade Bank), the second-largest bank in Russia. He received $2.4 million in compensation for his service in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the bank's fourth quarter report released yesterday (Interfax, February 12). As an executive for German banks prior to this, Warnig had been instrumental in arranging massive financing for Russian state energy companies.
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34509&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=8a549ea7bd
Commercial information.
Gazprom's European Web
In brief, the major findings of this paper are:
The existence of dozens of non-transparent “gas trading” companies established throughout Europe by the Russian state-controlled natural gas monopoly, OAO Gazprom, constitutes a serious threat to the energy security of the European Union.
Some of these middlemen companies have been linked to organized crime groups in Russia and in Europe while others are suspected of laundering millions of dollars into the accounts of high-level Russian, Ukrainian, and other officials. The huge sums involved have a corrupting influence on local government officials and deprive the citizens of their countries of the honest services they deserve and expect from their elected and appointed officials...
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/books/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34516&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=fdab12fee1
Beelzebubalicious
03-02-2009, 08:48 AM
Funny, but I didn't think this was news. Is the European Union just figuring this out? C'mon.
Surferbeetle
03-02-2009, 03:53 PM
From today's Washington Post by Craig Whitlock: E.U. Denies Request for Bailout of E. Europe (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/01/AR2009030100389.html)
BERLIN, March 1 -- European leaders Sunday rejected a Hungarian plea for a $240 billion bailout of struggling Eastern European countries, as divisions continued to fester over how to prevent economic ills from spreading across the continent.
Hungary's prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, had proposed the massive rescue fund for Eastern Europe last week. On Sunday, he warned that old conflicts could reemerge and that "large-scale defaults" would result if the E.U. did not come to the aid of its newest members, who have spent the past two decades trying to recover from communism.
From the Financial Times by Tony Barber: EU summit pledges aid for eastern states (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fdac296e-0682-11de-ab0f-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1)
European Union governments vowed on Sunday to conquer the financial crisis and recession gripping their economies by extending help to beleaguered eastern European states on a country-by-country basis and respecting the rules of the single European market.
The fragility of the financial systems in several eastern European countries dominated an emergency summit in Brussels, where leaders of the 27-nation bloc committed themselves to “getting the real economy back on track by making the maximum possible use of the single market, which is the engine for recovery”.
Banks in the eurozone have lent $1,250bn to eastern Europe, and Moody’s, the credit ratings agency, warned last month that it might downgrade certain western European banks because of their exposure.
From the WSJ by David Crawford: Austrian Bank Rushes Results (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123505501653522785.html)
VIENNA -- Austria's Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG rushed out preliminary results to reassure investors over its exposure in Eastern Europe, where it is cutting back foreign-currency loans to consumers as well as all lending to some industries.
Raiffeisen International Chief Executive Herbert Stepic said the decision to halt lending in Swiss francs and to severely restrict loans in euros and U.S. dollars, which began in late 2008 but hadn't been formally announced, will free clients from the risk of fluctuating exchange rates. As Eastern European currencies have weakened, payments on those loans have become more expensive.
He also said the bank has halted local and foreign-currency lending to businesses in troubled East European industries, such as transportation and steel.
"It is another nail in the region's coffin," said Gabor Ambrus, a London-based Eastern Europe economic analyst with 4cast Ltd. He warned that other foreign banks are likely to withdraw credit as well. Eastern Europe is headed for a severe credit crunch that "will impact the real economy," he said.
Mr. Stepic said many rating agencies have misjudged Eastern Europe, whose good infrastructure, educated residents and low wages still mean it has good growth prospects. He said some Eastern European countries have strong economic fundamentals and predicted that those that do end up in financial straits and are members of the European Union can expect a bailout from Brussels.
Analysts tend to unjustly lump all of Eastern Europe in one basket, Mr. Stepic said. He singled out Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Albania and Kosovo as having bright futures.
Beelzebubalicious
03-02-2009, 03:56 PM
This is a pretty good summary of the current situation. In situations like this, Ukrainians tend to return to the iron hand. Given that Yuschenko and Tymoshenko are bloodying themselves pretty badly, don' t be surprised to see a Yanukovych (pro-Russian) type step up. The Party of the Regions sort of fell apart, but the sentiment and power behind it is still there...
March 02, 2009
Ukraine Teeters as Citizens Blame Banks and Government (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/world/europe/02ukraine.html?emc=eta1)
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY
Factories and services are faltering, the currency is wilting and a government default seems possible, posing a real threat to other European economies.
Surferbeetle
03-02-2009, 04:34 PM
Eric,
Thanks for the NYT article, it's a interesting read.
Regards,
Steve
From today's Bloomberg by Emma O’Brien and Laura Cochrane: Russia Stock Gains Strengthen Putin as Ukraine Drops (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=atyOmH09xh1A&refer=home)
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the worst-performing major stock market in 2008, was Europe’s best last month as the ruble rose and reserves stabilized. Every neighboring market crumbled.
The Micex equity index climbed 6.6 percent in February as the world’s second-biggest oil producer stopped speculators from driving down the ruble and depleting its $382 billion of foreign exchange reserves. In Ukraine, the central bank’s holdings fell 24 percent since August and the benchmark PFTS Index lost 21 percent last month. Latvia’s OMX Riga Index dropped 8 percent.
While Russia’s government said the economy will contract for the first time in a decade and currency reserves are down 36 percent from August, the nation’s relative strength is raising Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s influence over former Soviet states. Ukraine discussed borrowing $5 billion. Kazakhstan wants Russia to buy ailing BTA Bank. Belarus is asking for $3 billion in loans, on top of $2 billion granted last year.
“Russia isn’t looking at a straight-line deterioration into oblivion,” said Kieran Curtis, who helps manage $800 million in emerging-market fixed-income assets in London at Aviva Investors Ltd. “It has enough liquid assets to take stakes in all kinds of things in the former Soviet states.”
Beelzebubalicious
03-03-2009, 07:27 AM
I like this line:
“Russia isn’t looking at a straight-line deterioration into oblivion,”
What I like to do is wait for my desperate relatives to come knocking on my door for a loan and then charge them a really high interest rate. What's better is that I know they can't pay it, so I can extract all kinds of valuable concessions from them.
Economic Catastrophe Propels Russia into an Identity Crisis
It answered perfectly the ambitions of the new elites and the needs of a disoriented populace and included three key elements: prosperity, pride, and paternalism-or more precisely, Putin himself. All three are now in shambles, and Russia has found itself lost in depression
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34570&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=5ee395b352
Chancellor Merkel Says Nein to Nabucco
Merkel has shifted tactical gears with this nein to Nabucco. Barely five weeks before she had written to European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso and the EU's incumbent Czech presidency, urging EU support for three projects simultaneously: Gazprom's Nord Stream, Gazprom's South Stream, and Nabucco. Merkel's toughly-worded confidential letter found its way to the press (Financial Times Deutschland, January 29; Le Monde, February 3; see EDM, February 4). Concerned at the EU's move to single out Nabucco for support, Merkel's letter sought to elevate Nord Stream (of interest to Germany) and South Stream (lobbied by Gazprom and Italy) to an equal footing with Nabucco in terms of EU support.
The European Commission, however, takes the position that Nord Stream and South Stream are business projects whereas Nabucco is a strategic priority of the EU. Since Berlin could not elevate Nord Stream and South Stream to the same level as Nabucco in EU policy, Merkel's shift of gears seems designed to downgrade Nabucco to the same level as Gazprom's two projects, which do not qualify for EU support.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34679&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=a6544468e3
Beelzebubalicious
03-12-2009, 05:53 AM
I wonder what the terms of the $5 billion loan from Russia (http://www.kyivpost.com/world/37092) to Ukraine will be?
EU has the means to check Gazprom
It should now be a clear consequence of the latest Gazprom/Ukraine/European Union gas crisis that the EU must take at least two steps to protect itself from future Gazprom blackmail and the adverse impact that could have in U.S.-EU relations and energy security. Ignoring Gazprom's gas dominance is all the more puzzling given the EU's continued attacks on Microsoft, whose Windows operating system poses much less of an economic and security threat than Gazprom's monopoly.
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/12/eu-has-the-means-to-check-gazprom/
Schmedlap
03-27-2009, 08:44 PM
http://www.openmarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/vladimir_putin-4-crop.jpg
Russian Nationalism Threatens to Destroy the Russian Federation.
13.04.2009
The rise of ethnic Russian nationalism, of the kind characterized by the slogan “Russia for the Russians,” threatens the country both directly by promoting countervailing nationalisms among non-Russian groups and indirectly by making it more difficult for Moscow to move toward a law-based state, according to a Moscow analyst.
“A great state,” the analyst argues, “can be based either on a g reat past or on a great future. All that unifies in spirit the entire Russian population is May 9, 1945. But the unifying them of the war was completely exhausted by Brezhnev. In Russian history, “every other event has the effect of dividing the population.”
http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2009/04/window-on-eurasia-russian-nationalism.html
Window on Eurasia: Medvedev Historical Falsification Commission ‘Harmful’ or ‘Useless,’ Memorial Expert Says
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s commission to block “ the falsification of history at the expense of the interests of Russia’ will either be harmful to Medvedev’s reputation and Russia’s prospects for reform or prove useless as an operational body, even if it says a very great deal about the habit of mind of its authors.
“The struggle against the falsifications of history,” Memorial’s Arseny Roginsky argues, “is not an affair of the state,” and consequently, “the activity of the new commission will be useless or harmful” because “we all know very well how [the Russian] state struggles with falsifications”
http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2009/05/window-on-eurasia-medvedev-historical.html
davidbfpo
06-09-2009, 11:25 AM
The BBC News has a long report on fuel supplies and includes an interview with Gazprom's Deputy Chairman: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8090104.stm
davidbfpo
bourbon
06-09-2009, 05:42 PM
The takeover of Hungary's Emfesz & energy security in Europe (http://www.globalwitness.org/media_library_get.php/889/1244569220/gw_emfesz_may09.pdf). Global Witness - Briefing Document – 31/05/2009. (PDF)
The takeover of Hungary’s largest independent gas supplier, Emfesz, by a shell company with unknown owners has once again highlighted the opacity of the natural gas trade from the former Soviet Union, a key source of gas supply for Europe. The European Union needs to respond by ensuring full transparency of all companies that supply Europe with gas and oil.
The Balts learned a painful lesson and yet, the remainder of Europe remains hungry and naive.
The title above comes from GAZPROM's website (http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article37623.shtml) :rolleyes:
Take a quick look at what a nasty lesson does to production and exports here (http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article20161.shtml).
Beelzebubalicious
06-10-2009, 06:03 PM
Ah, the yo-yo that is Ukraine. Russia is trying really hard to build support and ties in the East and South. Presidential candidate Yanukovych is their favorite puppet and he rejected a power-sharing deal with Tymoshenko, so it looks like he thinks he'll get enough support and votes in the East and South (with Russia's help) to become the next president. Will be interesting to see what happens if he is "elected".
George L. Singleton
06-11-2009, 03:45 PM
In an earlier post this year on this topic Fuchs in German wrote in part:
Natural gas has near-perfect substitutes in all its uses. Mankind does not need natural gas - it can do the same things with coal products.
* Natural gas replaced coal gas in the 70's for heating/cooking in residential areas (in Berlin and Eastern Europe only in the 90's).
* Natural gas powerplants are quick reaction peak supply tools, but not necessary for the base supply. Improved coal and even nuclear powerplant technologies can replace it in that role (and a special type of water power, but not on large scale).
* Natural gas is also in use in steel production. Alternative technologies use electricity and/or coke as far as I know.
* Natural gas-driven vehicles: No need for such a thing, it's a stupid idea anyway.
The reality is we have mix and match sources, ways and means to pick and choose which energy resources we prefer to use to balance out or hold down costs as our various nations and national interests would prefer.
Natural gas for vehicles here in the US is the wave of the future.
Here in my City of Hoover, Alabama our municipal auto and trucking fleet is fuel entirely by used cooking oil in a cheaper than regular gas or diesel fuel processing plant our city has contracted with for this purpose.
Summer of 2006 my wife and I were touring part of Europe, German, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France. We kept seeing a growing number of windmills used to generate electricity. The highways were full of flat bed trucks carrying blades and construciton parts to build more new windmills. Wind into electricity is a very good idea in my book, and it is being pursued more actively here in the US in the past two years, in fact, oddly enough.
Russia should about now be completing it's largest refinery in the world in the Houston, Texas area...this came about inpart when interpersonal relations were at their best between then President Bush and then President Putin.
"Personalized" politics plays a great role, always, otherwise why mention Merkle over Schroder, and now Schroder regarding the Russia to Germany natural gas underwater pipeline, which underwater routing makes sound engineering and safety sense if you take the time of analyze the science of that engineering approach.
This thread is a good one and can go on forever as it revolves around the changing world scene daily from now to eternity, but it serves a good purpose to bring out so many different nationality posters on these energy and politics topics.
Surferbeetle
08-07-2009, 02:54 PM
From today's NY Times: Turkey and Russian Conclude Energy Deals (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/world/europe/07turkey.html?_r=1&ref=world)
Under the deal Mr. Putin obtained Thursday, Gazprom will be allowed to proceed with seismic and environmental tests in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone, necessary preliminary steps for laying the South Stream pipe, Prime Minister Erdogan said at a news conference.
After the meeting, Mr. Putin said, “We agreed on every issue.”
The trans-Anatolian oil pipeline also marginally improves Russia’s position in the region. The pipeline is one of two so-called Bosporus bypass systems circumventing the straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, which are operating at capacity in tanker traffic.
The preferred Western route is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which allows companies to ship Caspian Basin crude oil to the West without crossing Russian territory; the pipeline instead crosses the former Soviet republic of Georgia and avoids the crowded straits by cutting across Turkey to the Mediterranean.
Russia prefers northbound pipelines out of the Caspian region that terminate at tanker terminals on the Black Sea. The success of this plan depends, in turn, on creating additional capacity in the Bosporus bypass routes. Russia is backing two such pipelines.
Mr. Putin’s offer to move ahead with a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Turkey suggests a sweetening of the overall Russian offer on energy deals with Turkey, while both Western and Russian proposals are on the table.
Jubilant Medvedev Praises Yanukovych and Threatens Lukashenka (http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=36294&cHash=7384fa2256)
Eurasia Daily Monitor
22, 2010
Yesterday, Moscow achieved one of its most important long-term strategic goals –to secure a continued military presence in Ukraine by keeping its base in Sevastopol, Crimea. During a summit in Kharkov in Eastern Ukraine, Presidents Viktor Yanukovych and Dmitry Medvedev signed a barter agreement that will reduce by 30 percent the price of natural gas for Ukraine and extend the lease of Sevastopol as the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet for 25 years plus an automatic prolongation of 5 years.
Kommersant Reporter Is Badly Beaten
08 November 2010
One of Russia's best-known reporters, Oleg Kashin, remained hospitalized in critical condition Sunday night as journalists and activists increased pressure on the authorities to investigate the savage weekend beating that broke his jaw, fingers and a leg.
Kashin, a 30-year-old journalist with Kommersant and one of the country's most prolific and popular bloggers, was attacked by two unidentified men early Saturday near his home at 28 Pyatnitskaya Ulitsa in downtown Moscow.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kommersant-reporter-is-badly-beaten/421914.html
Look at the video and how the journalist's leggs are chopped :eek:
http://www.lifenews.ru/news/42779
Video part II.
http://news.life.ru/news/42814
davidbfpo
12-05-2010, 11:54 AM
Taken from Open Democracy an article 'Kuschevskaya: crime and punishment in a Russian village':
The story of scores being settled with a brutal mass murder in southern Russia has hit the Russian national press. It reveals much about the links between organised crime and power in the country today and gives the lie to the propaganda machine’s claims of increasing happiness and stability.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/grigorii-golosov/kuschevskaya-crime-and-punishment-in-russian-village
There are links within, such as the BBC's report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11736312
Naturally Wikileaks has some wider comments on Russia being a Mafia state, IMHO this article provides some context - the reader draws his own conclusions.
Op-Ed Contributor
A Beating on My Beat
By OLEG KASHIN
Published: December 11, 2010
A man with a steel rod is standing behind the smiling politicians who speak of democracy. That man is the real defender of the Kremlin and its order. I got to feel that man with my own head.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/opinion/12Kashin.html?_r=2
Russian Energy Policy by www.res.ethz.ch
26 July 2011
http://kms2.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/131518/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/792edf37-5fa7-4d38-a33f-954b95b84971/en/Russian_Analytical_Digest_100.pdf
Russia's Power Families - 2011
The "Russia’s Power Families – 2011. The Government" report was prepared by the Monitoring Expert Group (MEG), created in 2011 by Marina Litvinovich, political scientist and journalist. The Group brings together information processing specialists, investigative journalists, experts and analysts. Six people helped gather the material for this report, which took three months to prepare.Russia's Power Families - 2011
Bortnikov Alexander Vasilyevich, Russian FSB Director
Chaika Yuri Yakovlevich, General Prosecutor
Fradkov Mikhail Efimovich, Foreign Intelligence Service Director
Fursenko Andrei Alexandrovich, Minister of Education and Science
Ivanov Victor Petrovich, head of Federal Drug Control Service
Ivanov Sergei Borisovich, Deputy Chairman of RF Government
Khristenko Victor Borisovich, Minister of Industry and Trade and Golikova Tatyana, Minister of Health and Social Development
Kudrin Alexei Leonidovich, ex-Minister of Finance
Levitin Igor Yevgenievich, Minister of Transport and Communication
Murov Evgeny Alexeyevich, Federal Protective Service director
Mutko Vitaly Leontievich, Minister of Sports, Tourism and Youth Policy
Nabiullina Elvira Sahipzadovna, Minister of Economic Development
Patrushev Nikolai Platonovich, Security Council Secretary
Serdyukov Anatoly Eduardovich, Defense Minister
Shoigu Sergei Kuzhugetovich, Minister of Civil Defense, Emergency Situations and Disaster Relief
Shuvalov Igor Ivanovich, Government’s First Deputy Chairman
Skrynnik Elena Borisovna, Minister of Agriculture
Stepashin Sergei Vladimirovich, Accounts Chamber Chairman
Trutnev Yuri Petrovich, Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology
Zhukov Alexander Dmitrievich, Deputy RF Prime Minister
Zubkov Victor Alekseyevich, First Deputy RF Prime Minister
http://eng.election2012.ru/reports/1/
AdamG
12-06-2011, 05:00 PM
Russia has sent interior ministry troops to Moscow and increased the alert level of security forces after a protest of thousands of people opposing Vladimir Putin, officials said on Tuesday.
“They (the troops) have just one aim--to ensure the security of the citizens,” interior ministry forces spokesman Colonel Vasily Panchenkov told the Interfax news agency while a police spokesman said the security forces were now on a “heightened regime” of alert.
“The number of troops deployed is determined by the Moscow police,” Panchenkov added, without giving numbers.
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/12/06/181111.html
AdamG
12-09-2011, 09:50 PM
MOSCOW -- Russian authorities are allowing the opposition to hold a massive Moscow protest against election fraud following a violent police crackdown on unsanctioned demonstrations earlier this week, rally organizers said Friday.
The decision to let up to 30,000 protesters rally on Saturday on a square across the river from the Kremlin appears to be an attempt to avoid the violence that occurred at demonstrations after last Sunday's parliamentary election.
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/09/9329050-russia-set-for-mass-protests-against-putin
Photo caption -
Russian riot police stand guard near Red Square in Moscow on Friday. Nearly 50,000 police and 2,000 paramilitary forces are on the streets, backed by water cannons, ahead of protests planned for Saturday.
From The Moscow Times (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/protesters-harness-the-power-of-facebook/449560.html)
Russia inched closer to a Facebook revolution Thursday, after the number of users who signed up for a protest against the State Duma vote results crossed the 30,000 mark.
Web dissent spilling offline sparked suspicions that the authorities may be mulling a crackdown on Internet freedoms, a fear fueled by reports about law enforcement agencies' disjointed attempts to pressure the online community.
But analysts interviewed for this article said the cost of such a crackdown would be too high and that the Russian segment of the World Wide Web would likely remain a bastion of free speech and political discussion.
AdamG
12-10-2011, 11:38 PM
Doh!
Saturday as Russia resorts to 'devious tricks' to limit numbers at anti-Putin rally
Males over 17 also warned they could be conscripted into the Russian army if they protest
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2072195/Students-ordered-school-Saturday-Russia-resorts-devious-tricks-limit-numbers-anti-Putin-rally.html#ixzz1gB6R06sO
davidbfpo
01-19-2012, 11:41 PM
Russia I doubt has shifted off our radar, though not as a Small War topic and catching up with my reading today I found this article 'Russia's new dissidents' by Anne Applebaum, whose writing is consistently good IMHO.
It is not so much her theme rather the environment in Russia she reports is worth knowing.
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/7527378/russias-new-dissidents.thtml
Nice simple diagram (in Russian) about Putin's court.
http://visual.ly/their-home-russia
bourbon
01-16-2013, 11:05 PM
Ded Dead: the assassination of Russian crime boss Aslan Usoyan (‘Ded Khasan’) (http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2013/01/16/ded-dead-the-assassination-of-russian-crime-boss-aslan-usoyan-ded-khasan/), Mark Galeotti. In Moscow's Shadows, 16 January 2013.
News is just breaking that Russian (actually Kurdish Yezidi from Georgia) crime boss Aslan Usoyan (‘Ded Hasan’ or ‘Ded Khasan’ — ‘Grandfather Hassan’) was shot and killed last night in Moscow. Apparently a sniper took him down (some say with a head shot, but probably multiple hits) as he was leaving a restaurant (initial accounts vary, but it was almost certainly the Stary faeton on Bolshaya Nikitskaya, known as his favored hang-out). He died in intensive care at the Botkin hospital.
While the details of the hit will emerge soon enough, the fundamentals are clear — another classic Russian mob killing, reflecting rising tensions within the national underworld as well as the prosecution of a long-running feud(s). The 75-year-old Usoyan was one of the foremost leaders within the Russian underworld, but at a time when that underworld is going through a process of realignment due to a number of forces, not least the increasing flow of Afghan heroin through the country. This was the third assassination attempt in his underworld career, after one in Sochi in 1998 and then another in Moscow in 2010. The latter was a result of his running feud with Georgian mobster Tariel Oniani (‘Taro’) who is currently in prison but still managing his extensive crime empire from behind bars. His feud with Oniani dates back at least to 2007 and has been one of the defining pressures within the Russian underworld.
bourbon
01-16-2013, 11:23 PM
This will have repercussions from Western Europe to Central Asia. Expect further killings in Greece, Spain, France, or the UAE - and naturally in Russia and the South Caucasus.
Potential impact on Georgian domestic politics and Afghan heroin trafficking via the Northern Route.
bourbon
01-23-2013, 03:28 PM
From RFERL's Power Vertical blog - http://www.rferl.org/content/mob-wars-a-vor-for-a-vor/24879836.html
And so it begins.
The assassins were waiting in a silver Mercedes as Astamur Guliya, a 31-year-old crime kingpin, left a restaurant in downtown Sukhumi. They opened fire as Guliya entered the parking lot, mortally wounding him.
It was impossible not to notice the similarities with the killing four days earlier of the legendary gangster Aslan Usoyan as he left a restaurant in central Moscow. It was also impossible not to notice that the hit took place on the same day that Usoyan was buried in the Russian capital, where hundreds of mob bosses from all over the former Soviet Union bid their farewells.
And it was impossible not to notice that like Usoyan, Guliya was a "vor v zakone," or "thief in law," the rough equivalent of a "made man" in the Russian and post-Soviet underworld.
But Usoyan and Guliya were very different types of made men.
Mark Galeotti's blog - http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2013/01/21/has-a-new-russian-mob-war-started-in-abkhazia/
Could the murder of a no-more-than-moderately infamous local gangster in Abkhazia, Astamur Gulia, ‘Astik Sukhumski,’ mark the start of a wider gang war following the murder of Aslan Usoyan, ‘Ded Khasan’? Usoyan’s death inevitably sent shock waves through an underworld already in a degree of turmoil. The long-running feud between Usoyan and Tariel Oniani (‘Taro’), the hungry encroachments of Rovshan Janiyev (‘Rovshan Lenkoranskiy’) for dominance over the Caucasus gangsters, new disagreements with Zakhar Kalashov (‘Shakhro Junior’), sparked by rows over the distribution and management of his assets after he was arrested in Spain in 2006, all these helped ensure that the ‘mountaineers’ — the gangs from the North and South Caucasus — were increasingly at daggers’ drawn. However, it’s important to realize that for all the airtime they get, the ‘mountaineers’ do not comprise the majority of Russian organized crime and the extent to which there are wider, economic and political pressures also bearing down on the status quo that has held for the past decade.
kowalskil
10-22-2014, 03:53 PM
Contemporary Russian Situation (10/17/2014)
as described by BSN, an unnamed Russian author
Translated by Ludwik Kowalski, Ph.D.
http://csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/life/intro.html
1) My translation of BSN's article is available online at:
http://pages.csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/bsn.html
2) Why did I translate this article? Because I know that the present political situation in Russia is far from clear, and that many people will be interested in how it is described by an intelligent Russian patriot. Feel free to share the link with those who might be interested.
3) Point 4 below is only for those who want to know how I became involved.
Best regards, Ludwik
P.S. Comments will be appreciated.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4)On October 12, 2014 I subscribed to a Russian website: < http://mirbudushego.ru/forum >. My first post contaied the link to my autobiography (as above).
The forum administrator BSN, responding to me, wrote: "Stalinist repressions, which you describe, belong to the distant past. Don't you think that emphasis on repression, and comparing Stalinism with Nazism, were, and still are, used by American imperialists to demonize the Soviet Union, and then Russia? At the same time they cynically implement criminal policies. They try to dominate the world and to impose the new totalitarian World Order. Why should one particular policy of Stalin, or other errors of Soviet leaders, discredit the idea of building a just society? Why should it justify support of capitalism, controlled by the worldwide lust-and-power-hungry oligarchy?"
To which I responded:
"Yes, America, too, is far from an ideal. Yes, politicians of all countries use deplorable events to promote their interests. Stalinism was based on Marx's theory, according to which the dictatorship of the proletariat is the only way to build a just society. My parents believed in this ideology. But it was not justified by the Soviet reality. That reality should be studied, to avoid repeating similar catastrophes.
BSN replied:
"The main reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union was the betrayal by the elite, which, at the behest of the United States, and under the demagogic arguments about freedom and democracy, decided to discontinue building a just society, and to live comfortably in the unjust society, at the expense of common people. Marx's mistake was obvious; he believed that a change in the economic system would automatically change the consciousness of people. Reality is different; an economic system cannot be changed without first changing the consciousness of people. The primary desire of most people (in the socialist countries, like that of people living in the West), is material comfort, fun and entertainment. Therefore, to build a just society, it is necessary to rely on changing attitudes of people, not just a change of the socio-economic model, or transfer of the steering wheel from one social class, to another. What you think about it? Do you agree that today we should fight for a just society on the basis of an ideology similar to Marxism but modified, to account of mistakes made in the USSR?"
My immediate reply was short; I wrote: "Yes I agree. But I am not a sociologist. Who is developing such a theory in the Russian Federation today?"
BSN's reply was also short; he wrote:
" see, for example, ====> http://mirbudushego.ru/koncepciya/index.htm "
What is this link for? It allows one to read 23 articles (all in Russian), on BSN's open forum. The first 22 articles address psychology, sociology and history topics; the last one is a very interesting, (and probably unique?) description of the contemporary Russian situation. Unfortunately, BSN did not reply to my suggestion to discuss the last article privately, via email. After waiting several days I translated his article into English, and posted the translation on our university forum. The link is:
http://pages.csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/bsn.html
Why did I do this? Because I know that present political situation in Russia is not clear, and that
many people will be interested in how it is described by BSN.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 06:06 AM
The blatant killing on the open streets of Moscow of an aggressive investigative journalist who was openly researching Moscow’s various roles in the eastern Ukraine mercenary movements.
This killing goes to the heart of what Putin has created since 2002 in Russia and should be a warning to US senior leadership that they are now dealing with a true fascist state and no amount of diplomacy is going to work.
Does the US senior leadership truly feel that even now whatever Russia signed for a document or for that matter any document –that it and they will ever be honored—meaning without trust there is diplomacy and right now we are seeing the true form of Russian nationalism that borders on fascism and the sooner we call it what it is the sooner one can finds solutions. Remember what Stalin told close friends---we will sign documents and if it helps us we will follow them if not them ignore them.
The US senior leadership needs to fully understand that to understand Putin you just need to understand his actions it is that simple--for to trust his words is a massive mistake---he has been showing his actions since 2002 and yet the US and West in general did not want to "see" and "understand" because it contradicted their own ideas and that is a deadly mistake in diplomacy and now we have the Crimean/Ukrainian problem and it will not stop until a true red line is placed and defended.
Since 2002 the following have been killed in Russia----
Paul Khlebnikov of Forbes shot in 2004; Anna Politkovskaya shot in 2006, Natalya Estemirova shot in 2009, ETC.,ETC. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/28/world/europe/boris-nemtsov-russian-opposition-leader-is-shot-dead.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news …
David Patrikarakos @dpatrikarakos
#Russia is regressing to a very dangerous place. This done publicly & symbolically. Kremlin no longer bothers to maintain a facade #Nemtsov
#Nemtsov was working on a report presenting evidence of #Russia's involvement in separatist rebellion in #Ukrainehttp://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_RUSSIA_OPPOSITION_LEADER_KILLED?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT …
Nemtsov murder scene evidence being washed away bc Putin doesn't care abt meaning of impartial forensic investigation pic.twitter.com/rog24acbcS
Julia Ioffe ✔ @juliaioffe
Here is #Nemtsov a few hours before his death at a Moscow radio station, encouraging people to Sunday's protest. pic.twitter.com/CEHweHUDQD
Bill Browder @Billbrowder
The cover up begins. Nemtsov's flat is being searched in Moscow. Investigators are planning to seize all documents and materials
Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock
https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/571487291002241024 … Reports that police are now at Nemtsov’s apartment, seizing documents from his home.
Garry Kasparov ✔ @Kasparov63
Reports now that police are ransacking Nemtsov's home. Putin's enemies are always victims, and his victims are always suspects.
Laura Mills @lauraphylmills
Interior Min Rep Elena Alexeeva: Nemtsov hit by assailants in a light colored car, as walking w/ acquaintance from Ukraine. Investig ongoing
Garry Kasparov ✔ @Kasparov63
Politkovskaya was gunned down. MH17 was shot out of the sky. Now Boris is dead. As always, Kremlin will blame opposition, or CIA, whatever.
mirhond
02-28-2015, 08:19 AM
Boris Nemtsov, opposition politician asassinated near Kremlin, four bullets on the brige, Columbia-stile.
http://photocdn1.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/uploads/i/20150228/3964312.jpg
I, personally, have no idea who would benefit from this, Nemtsov was well-known, but his political weight was about zero. Although, opposition finally got a sacrificiall lamb.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 09:19 AM
This is exactly what I mean---this was one of the initial reports on the killing and notice it talks about being hit by a car--NOT hit by four bullets.
Laura Mills @lauraphylmills
Interior Min Rep Elena Alexeeva: Nemtsov hit by assailants in a light colored car, as walking w/ acquaintance from Ukraine. Investig ongoing
I took a beating here in SWJ back on the Crimea event when I mentioned a number of times that in order to "understand" Putin and the Russia he has built one just needs to reread Orwell's 1984---down to virtually Orwell's same terms can be seen and found now inside Russia and in the current Russian leadership.
And that was a beating--then I mentioned over a number of times that Russia has evolved into a rouge state with again beatings and lately one can even apply the concept that Russia is a "state sponsor of terrorism" on a virtual "Holy War" against western values and alleged decadent western liberalism.
There is currently only one other organization on a global "Holy War jihad"-IS.
The US "Old Guard" political/diplomatic/international relations speaking multiple languages types have been gone since 1990-- when "we" decided that they are no longer necessary because "peace was upon us all" ---has left a major void in the US senior leadership decision making and it is now truly apparent.
Suggest many go back and reread Orwell's 1984, reread any article on fascism especially those written on the emergence of Russian fascism, and read the article I linked to recently on the Russian "Holy War" against the West and then ask the simple question" does it appear that the current US senior leadership have a strategy "any" strategy?
The answer is easy--there is none.
Notice just how quickly Russia "blames" the victim" and their trolls go to work "framing the Ukraine"
Putin's propaganda machin already produced video: "We warned you - they will kill themselves just to frame us" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IatdvdNT9eQ&feature=youtu.be&a …
Moscow city admin warns that procession to mourn Nemtsov instead of planned Spring demonstration is illegal http://tvrain.ru/articles/merija_moskvy_predupredila_o_nezakonnosti_traurnoj _aktsii_vmesto_marsha_vesna-383068/ …
Vladimir Milov: Few doubts authorities behind Nemtsov's killing (in Russian)http://v-milov.livejournal.com/404003.html
LifeNews Publishes Video of Getaway Car of Nemtsov's Murder Suspects
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-february-28-2015/#7181 … pic.twitter.com/PdHBOaPbQF
#Nemtsov murder proves him right, sadly: "3 years ago, we were an opposition. Now we are no more than dissidents” https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/27/russian-opposition-leader-boris-nemtsov-reportedly-shot-dead-in-moscow/ …
Notice the Russian troll world shifts gears and uses this to “establish” an Ukrainian link –it is all nothing but the standard “it ain’t us” argument Putin has been using for over a year now and the West still thinks diplomacy will work???
Here's the "Ukrainian link", from Kremlin bots:https://twitter.com/klinok/status/571431786997288960 … https://twitter.com/klinok/status/571439075758084096 … https://twitter.com/jakoryuri/status/571426452136206336 …
From the hate factory:
"Total lawlessness. Closing a bridge at night because of a national traitor."
pic.twitter.com/zOSKXWc7XC
Russian media, following script:
"The Ukrainian girl with Nemtsov might have "led" him to the site of the murder."pic.twitter.com/jLkZigcuKU
Notice again the standard "it ain't us and it has got to be those Ukrainians own fault"?
That has been the massive Russian disinformation messaging since Feb 2014 and has anyone anywhere seen in the western media any push back on this messaging--none.
An interesting question-- does even the mainstream western media even know what disinformation messaging is and is the current mainstream journalism even able to answer it when they are so trained for the 30 second news bite and the 24 hour news cycle?
[B]
Since 2002 the following have been killed in Russia----
Paul Khlebnikov of Forbes shot in 2004; Anna Politkovskaya shot in 2006, Natalya Estemirova shot in 2009, ETC.,ETC.
David Patrikarakos @dpatrikarakos
#Russia is regressing to a very dangerous place. This done publicly & symbolically. Kremlin no longer bothers to maintain a facade #Nemtsov
Indeed it seems that being against the policies of Mr. Putin has been rather dangerous in and around Russia for some years now. I personally blame the Mossad, not the CIA despite what clever cui bono people say.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 02:10 PM
Boris Nemtsov, opposition politician asassinated near Kremlin, four bullets on the brige, Columbia-stile.
http://photocdn1.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/uploads/i/20150228/3964312.jpg
I, personally, have no idea who would benefit from this, Nemtsov was well-known, but his political weight was about zero. Although, opposition finally got a sacrificiall lamb.
mirhond you are Russian, you live in Russia, Russia the home of the richest oligarchs in the world which have plundered the natural wealth of Russia since the Czarist days and yet you yourself have no earthly idea who could profit from this inside the Putin elite and Russian neo Nazi cicrlces.
come on mirhond you are better than that statement even for you.
Putin who is indirectly on trial for murder in London should be able to point you in the right direction.
let's see just "how transparent" this Russian investigation will be since LifeNews has a video of the shooters vehicle--remember Russia screamed for transparency on MH17 and screamed transparency on Odessa and Mariupol and on and on and yet just what are the results from all of this supposedly Russian transparency--ZERO.
just how many fake stories did we get from Russian transparency on MH17--SIX in total and all lies.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 02:16 PM
Boris Nemtsov, opposition politician asassinated near Kremlin, four bullets on the brige, Columbia-stile.
http://photocdn1.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/uploads/i/20150228/3964312.jpg
I, personally, have no idea who would benefit from this, Nemtsov was well-known, but his political weight was about zero. Although, opposition finally got a sacrificiall lamb.
mirhond--let's see just how far and wide that Ruyssian FSB "transparency really goes these days in Moscow the home of the KGB/FSB.
CARE to comment??
Boris Nemtsov didn't take one step not under FSB surveillance. My reaction. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/11441799/Boris-Nemtsov-murder-Putin-now-governs-mostly-through-terror-and-propaganda.html …
Bill Moore
02-28-2015, 02:27 PM
More subtle than ISIS/ISIL/IS, perhaps closer to the former cartels in Columbia, Putin's oligarchy uses terrorism as a principle tactic to suppress his people. Russia seems to be little more than a state captured by the Russian mafia. Why any other state would treat them as an equal is a mystery.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 02:47 PM
Great Russia news media source that was forced out of Russia recently--in English
15 hours after the murder. What we know about the investigation into the killing of Boris Nemtsov https://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/02/28/15-hours-after-the-murder …
Nemtsov murder site at 10am and 5pm. Eight hours of flower laying: pic.twitter.com/iBnQg3wi48
Ramzan Kadyrov already figured out who's behind #Nemtsov killing. Says Western Secret Services did it. https://instagram.com/p/zpY3odiRv9
Maybe Mongolian hordes killed Boris. Maybe it was the LGBT Tatar Red Army Faction. Maybe it was NATO trying to discredit Putin...
Chechen mercenaries provided by Kadyrov are fighting in eastern Ukraine
From Antimaidan poster girl to blaming the USA for Nemtsov's murder. Meet @KatasonovaMaria. pic.twitter.com/kkplOIxpgB
Sad play of words: 'Boris is killed, Nadezhda (hope) is dying' v @martin_camera #FreeSavchenko
http://martin.livejournal.com/366524.html
pic.twitter.com/tbUCRfHlTe
Russian doublethink:--really read the tweet
This is dark. pic.twitter.com/lFel9e5KfS
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 02:48 PM
Great article sorry it is in Russian though.
Extremely sharp post by @xenia_sobchak on the "chaos of hatred" and the responsibility of those who created it http://snob.ru/profile/24691/blog/88680 … (RUS)
Chechen Republic of Ichkeria expresses deep condolences to Boris Nemtsov family. We've lost a great political thinker pic.twitter.com/IkgtjyPTqQ
Notice the Black Wolf member—remember the biggest organizer of the recent anti-Maidan rally in Moscow were the Black Wolfs –the biggest Russian biker gang---think Hell Angels on steroids Close supporter of and supported by Putin personally.
Jan.19 2015 "Fear of death is the only Thing which Stops the opposition. Killers are already in training " #Nemtsov pic.twitter.com/XAL3J00QGc
This. pic.twitter.com/WvTddVXfMs Russian TV claims police are using "hypnotists" to question Nemtsov's female companion, tweeting this photo
#Moscow's forensic police dept. thoroughly investigating the scene of Boris #Nemtsov's murder. pic.twitter.com/qSpwv6qC0y
Russian transparency washes away all forensics.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 02:49 PM
Michael McFaul ✔ @McFaul
When I was ambassador, there were death threats against me. Upon investigation, they almost always came from crazy Russian nationalists.
Putin is seriously trying to get ahead of this T72b2 tank that is rolling---this alone can cause major political problems and form a stronger opposition as they now have a martyr for the cause of political change.
Putin Sends Telegram of Condolences to Nemtsov's Mother
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-february-28-2015/#7189 …
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
#CSIMoscow Nemtsov tripped and fell on some Muslim bullets
Did anyone mention in numerous stories and obits about Nemtsova that he was considered a likely Yeltsin successor a few years before Putin?
Nemtsov silenced for his opposition to Putin's imperialism in the Crimea and East Ukraine http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1425080092 … http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1425080092 …
Flowers for #Nemtsov outside Russian Embassy in Kyiv alongside #FreeSavchenko posters pic.twitter.com/0MX87clJKc
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 02:49 PM
Kind of feel sorry for Russian FSB—now social media is checking each and every video coming out of Russia and on VK and noted the following already.
The same man watching over the murder scene soon after #Nemstov was killed in front of Kremlin in #Moscow
@tvrain pic.twitter.com/ZejR0Eqb5l
Here he is again at the same site new position:
pic.twitter.com/f8kpzd0dc1
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 03:15 PM
To understand just where Putin is coming from read the following article:
Putin’s Orthodox Jihad
December 27, 2014
http://20committee.com/2014/12/27/pu...rthodox-jihad/
Excerpts taken from the article:
What motivates this is a complex question. Putin is a complex character himself, with his worldview being profoundly shaped by his long service as a Soviet secret policeman; he exudes what Russians term Chekism – conspiracy-based thinking that sees plots abounding and is reflexively anti-Western, with heavy doses of machismo and KGB tough-talk. Hence persistent Western efforts to view Putin as any Western sort of democratic politician, albeit one with a strange affectation for judo and odd bare-chested photo-ops with scary wild animals, invariably miss the mark.
This year ending also saw the mask drop regarding Putin’s ideology beyond his bone-deep Chekism. In his fire-breathing speech to the Duma in March when he announced Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Putin included not just venerable KGB classics like warnings about the Western Fifth Column and “national traitors,” but also paeans to explicit Russian ethnic nationalism buttressed by Orthodox mysticism, with citations of saints from millennia past. This was the culmination of years of increasingly unsubtle hints from Putin and his inner circle that what ideologically motivates this Kremlin is the KGB cult unified with Russian Orthodoxy. Behind the Chekist sword and shield lurks the Third Rome, forming a potent and, to many Russians, plausible worldview. That this take on the planet and its politics is intensely anti-Western needs to be stated clearly.
But what of Putin’s actual beliefs? This knotty question is, strictly speaking, unanswerable, since only he knows his own soul. Putin’s powerful Chekism is beyond doubt, while many Westerners are skeptical that he is any sort of Orthodox believer. According to his own account, Putin’s father was a militant Communist while his mother was a faithful, if quiet, Orthodox believer; one wonders what holidays were like in the Putin household. He was baptized in secret as a child but was not any sort of engaged believer during his KGB service — that would have been impossible, not least due to the KGB’s role in persecuting religion — but by his own account, late in the Soviet period, Putin reconciled his Chekism with his faith by making the sign of the cross over his KGB credentials. By the late 1990’s, Putin was wearing his baptismal cross openly, for all bare-chested photo ops.
The turn to faith in middle-age, after some sort of life crisis, is a staple of conversion and reversion stories. In his last years in power, Saddam Hussein began talking a lot about Islam openly, which was dismissed as political theater in the West, but in retrospect seems to have been at least somewhat sincere. Did Putin opt for Orthodoxy after a mid-life crisis? I am an Orthodox believer myself and, having carefully watched many video clips of Putin in church and at religious events, I can state without reservation that Putin knows what to do. His religious act — kissing icons, lighting candles, interacting with clerics — is flawless, so Putin is either a sincere Orthodox or he has devoted serious study to looking and acting like one.
Whether this faith is genuine or a well-honed pose, Putin’s potent fusion of KGB values and Orthodoxy has been building for years, though few Westerners have noticed. Early in Putin’s years in the Kremlin, the younger generation of Federal Security Service (FSB) officers embraced a nascent ideology they termed “the system” (sistema), which was a sort of elitist Chekism — toughness free of corruption and based in patriotism — updated for the new 21st century. However, this could have limited appeal to the masses, so its place was gradually taken by a doctrine termed “spiritual security.” This involved the ideological fusion of the FSB and the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), culminating in the 2002 dedication of an Orthodox church at the Lubyanka, the FSB — and former KGB’s — notorious Moscow headquarters. It suddenly became fashionable for senior FSB officers to have conversion experiences, while “spiritual security” offered Putin’s Russia a way to defend itself against what it has long seen as the encroachment of decadent post-modern Western values. Just how seriously Putin took all this was his statement that Russia’s “spiritual shield” was as important to her security as her nuclear shield.
It is in this context that Putin’s comments at last year’s Valdai Club event ought to be seen:
Another serious challenge to Russia’s identity is linked to events taking place in the world. Here there are both foreign policy and moral aspects. We can see how many of the Euro-Atlantic countries are actually rejecting their roots, including the Christian values that constitute the basis of Western civilization. They are denying moral principles and all traditional identities: national, cultural, religious and even sexual. They are implementing policies that equate large families with same-sex partnerships, belief in God with the belief in Satan.
The excesses of political correctness have reached the point where people are seriously talking about registering political parties whose aim is to promote pedophilia. People in many European countries are embarrassed or afraid to talk about their religious affiliations. Holidays are abolished or even called something different; their essence is hidden away, as is their moral foundation. And people are aggressively trying to export this model all over the world. I am convinced that this opens a direct path to degradation and primitivism, resulting in a profound demographic and moral crisis.
This week the ideological ante was upped by the Kremlin with the comments of Fr. Vsevolod Chaplin, a media gadfly cleric, who gave a very long newspaper interview in which he castigated, among other things, radical Islam, usury, and the West generally, but it was his comments on the current conflict with America that got all the attention. Chaplin minced no words, proclaiming that Russia’s God-given goal today is halting the global “American project.” As he explained:
It is no coincidence that we have often, at the price of our own lives … stopped all global projects that disagreed with our conscience, with our vision of history and, I would say, with God’s own truth .. Such was Napoleon’s project, such was Hitler’s project. We will stop the American project too.”
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 03:18 PM
To Understand Putin, Read Orwell
Ukraine, Russia and the Big Lie.By TIMOTHY SNYDER
September 03, 2014
http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...l#.VPGPSmA5DIU
Anyone who wants to understand the current Russian position on Ukraine would do well to begin with George Orwell’s classic, 1984. The connections go deeper than the adjective “Orwellian”: the structure and the wisdom of the book are guides, often frighteningly precise ones, to current events.
The easiest way to begin, in light of the now entirely open Russian invasion of Ukraine, is with “War is Peace,” one of the slogans of the imagined empire in Orwell’s tale. After all, every attempt thus far at negotiation and cease-fire has been accompanied by a Russian escalation, to the point where we can be certain that this is not a coincidence. If Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with other leaders, we must simply expect that this is cover for the latest outrage, as with the entrance of Russian troops, armor and artillery during the recent talks in Minsk.
Sound familiar with the Minsk 2 all night agreement and then the subsequent Russian assault on Debaltseve?
AND the West response--virtual silence from the French and Germans.
But we need to dig a bit deeper into the plot for the three concepts needed to understand this very strange war, in which Putin has radicalized Russian politics, destroyed a European peace order, challenged Europeans’ assumptions about their entire future — and even threatened nuclear war. Every reason proffered to explain a war that is pointless to the point of nihilism is obviously bogus or self-contradictory or both. To grasp this horrible event in which people are killing and dying for no discernible reason, we need to remember some key concepts from Orwell: Eurasia, doublethink and learning to love Big Brother.
In Orwell’s 1984, one of the world powers is called Eurasia. Interestingly enough, Eurasia is the name of Russia’s major foreign policy doctrine. In Orwell’s dystopia, Eurasia is a repressive, warmongering state that “comprises the whole of the northern part of the European and Asiatic land-mass, from Portugal to the Bering Strait.” [U]In Russian foreign policy, Eurasia is a plan for the integration of all the lands from—you guessed it—Portugal to the Bering Strait. Orwell’s Eurasia practices “neo-Bolshevism”; Russia’s leading Eurasian theorist once called himself a “national Bolshevik.” This man, the influential Alexander Dugin, has long advocated that the Ukrainian state be destroyed, and has very recently proposed that Russia exterminate Ukrainians.
Orwell can help us understand what is happening to us as if we make a good-faith effort to use Russian media official sources to try to understand the world. Russian propaganda about Ukraine is today’s doublethink: it requires that people, as Orwell put it, “hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing both of them.” Russian propaganda daily pounds out two sides to every story, both of which are false, and each of which contradicts the other. Consider the propositions in italics below, all of which should by now, after eight months of repetition, sound familiar.
"One the one hand, Russia must invade Ukraine because the Ukrainian state is repressive. (In fact, Ukraine is a democracy with free expression and is in every respect a freer country than Russia.) On the other hand, Russia must intervene because the Ukrainian state does not exist. (In fact, it is just as functional as the Russian state, except in the problematic spheres of war, intelligence and propaganda.)"
Timothy Snyder is Housum professor of History at Yale University and the author of Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 03:24 PM
European social media picked up this specific CCTV camera in Moscow:
This Kremlin surveillance camera was pointing directly at the spot when Boris #Nemtsov was murdered last night: pic.twitter.com/RouhA2aBkn
NOTICE: pointed directly at the murder scene--what will the Russian “transparency” show us in the coming days????
REMEMBER: those that have been in Moscow and around the Kremlin--there is not a inch of space not covered by MIA and FSB CCTV cameras.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 03:35 PM
European social media picked up this specific CCTV camera in Moscow:
This Kremlin surveillance camera was pointing directly at the spot when Boris #Nemtsov was murdered last night: pic.twitter.com/RouhA2aBkn
NOTICE: pointed directly at the murder scene --what will the Russian “transparency” show us in the coming days????
REMEMBER: those that have been in Moscow and around the Kremlin--there is not a inch of space not covered by MIA and FSB CCTV cameras.
LifeNews: Cars Found, Suspects Videotaped in Nemtsov Murder but Investi Committee Rejectshttp://lifenews.ru/news/150535
Investigation committee knows the killers?????
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 03:41 PM
Comment from a leading Black Wolf Russian biker gang member:
Read it carefully as it reflects the true fear of Maidan.
Zaldostanov, one of Antimaidan founders: 'Fear of death is the only way to stop Maidan in Rissia'
via @Roman_Yhnovec pic.twitter.com/F4ucj30Rhc
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 04:25 PM
John Schindler @20committee
I know 1sthand of cases when FSB "tails" stopped crimes against surveillance targets. In this case, at best, FSB chose to let Nemtsov die
Nemtsov had been under 24/7 human & tech FSB surveillance for many years. Nothing happened to him that the Kremlin didn't allow to happen.
John Schindler @20committee
Unless you, too, have experienced 24/7 FSB surveillance on their own turf, spare us the lectures: Kremlin knew everything Nemtsov did.
A film by #Nemtsov dissecting #Kremlin reports and proving that #Russia is behind #MH17
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/28/who-shot-down-mh17-as-revealed-by-pro-kremlin-sources/ … pic.twitter.com/AlANQVmTau
Boris Nemtsov was to disclose Russia's part in Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's president said Feb 28, @interfaxua reports http://social.stratfor.com/4LH
Chubais take on #Nemtsov assassination points at building tension over propaganda in Russia http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1692011.html … pic.twitter.com/AV1TH8xPKr
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 04:40 PM
One of the bravest FRONT-ON confrontations with Putin on #Nemtsov in the Russian media...from Moskovski Komsomoletshttp://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/02/28...atory-kto.html …
AWAITING the translation as social media has asked for it.
Telegraph News ✔ @TelegraphNews
Boris #Nemtsov murder: 'Putin now governs mostly through terror and propaganda'http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/p...ropaganda.html … pic.twitter.com/WJZZqxZdFo
Carl Bildt ✔ @carlbildt Former Swedish FM
Murder of Boris Nemtsov is the Donbass war coming to Moscow. Read what he wrote on the aggression against Ukraine. http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-e...ne-362884.html
Light the match and stand back. Poster from last weekend of Nemtsov as "Organizer of Maidan," pic.twitter.com/DbOyYxi0wN
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 05:38 PM
Russian disinformation hard at work:
Ben Judah @b_judah
There is a buzzing rumour that Nemtsov may have been involved in some sort of Khodorkovsky gambit in the Kremlin
Incredible. Kremlin blog army continues character assassination even after death >> https://twitter.com/FangornTree/status/571705056854077440 … pic.twitter.com/TDQ5dnqOPi
Here's another one for your troll collection:
https://twitter.com/LandDestroyer/status/571553096465178625 …
KREMLIN TROLL ALERT (KTA) /RT @NukeRusich
Key talking points given to Kremlin blog army: "Liberals invite people to funeral march as if it is a party. Don't go out tomorrow
Putin's spokesman Peskov says Nemtsov was hardly more prominent than an average citizen http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2677648
After almost a whole day of radio silence, Kremlin's key trolls got new instructions. Check them out https://twitter.com/christogrozev/lists/kremlinbots …
Ben Judah @b_judah
Nemtsov first warned Russia was turning into a Putin dictatorship ten years ago.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 06:22 PM
Is Russia falling off the rails in slow motion??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DWntEfIykw … #Putin crowd: #Nemtsov="sacrificial lamb" to #Maidan-ize #Russia; was w/ 23yo from #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/vsIIOvyiUb
Carl Bildt ✔ @carlbildt
This unfortunately is Russia today: Pravda says 90% probability that CIA killed "their Russian agent Nemtsov". http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/28-02-2015/129934-boris_nemtsov_murdered-0/http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/28-02-2015/129934-boris_nemtsov_murdered-0/
#Nemtsov was bugged, tailed, filmed, monitored by the secret police -FSB. Murder was ordered or tolerated by Kremlin. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/11441799/Boris-Nemtsov-murder-Putin-now-governs-mostly-through-terror-and-propaganda.html …
Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin
Just count the smear campaigns against Nemtsov on the government TV - so much for his "unimportance"
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 06:25 PM
Boris Nemtsov, opposition politician asassinated near Kremlin, four bullets on the brige, Columbia-stile.
http://photocdn1.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/uploads/i/20150228/3964312.jpg
I, personally, have no idea who would benefit from this, Nemtsov was well-known, but his political weight was about zero. Although, opposition finally got a sacrificiall lamb.
mirhond--care to comment--Moscow TV is now at five different stories smearing your "political weight was about zero" person as you yourself stated.
Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin
Just count the smear campaigns against Nemtsov on the government TV - so much for his "unimportance"
After pretty much every prominent victim, beside the many not-so-famous ones , the similar stories seems to spread speedily. Not the man or his friends in power which have been subject to revelations, criticism and attacks for their abuses and riches are behind the murders because they 'don't pose a threat', 'are not worth the risk', 'just cause a media uproar' and so forth. Beside spitting on the corpses of the victim this does not take into account an old logic of regimes* and criminal organizations like the mafia. By killing seemingly irrationally nobody can feel save even if one is indeed objectively currently not a big threat. Exactly for those reasons it is one way to spread fear far and wide.
Of course that this strategy is not limited to killings as it employs a wide field of threats, violence and instruments but killings like in Russia can be the irreplaceable spikes to make it overall work with high level of fear. Of course a regime might get it's calculations from time to time wrong and face a far bigger problem after one of those acts but that is just part of the cruel human game that mistakes get made. Then again it is hardly worth to mention such things on the Small War Council given things like surprise, causing confusion, keeping the enemy on his toes/off balance/etc and so forth...
*China operates in a similar way against media outlets for example when it comes to corruption stories. A hundred papers might run the same story but one can get singled out for no superficial reasons apart from the inner logic to make everyone else uneasy or fearful. To some extent it is the fear of the unknown, that one can not calculate the reaction of the power. The (mostly predictable) rule of law is indeed for good reasons one cornerstone of a free and democratic society....
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 07:35 PM
After pretty much every prominent victim, beside the many not-so-famous ones , the similar stories seems to spread speedily. Not the man or his friends in power which have been subject to revelations, criticism and attacks for their abuses and riches are behind the murders because they 'don't pose a threat', 'are not worth the risk', 'just cause a media uproar' and so forth. Beside spitting on the corpses of the victim this does not take into account an old logic of regimes and criminal organizations like the mafia. By 'vanishing', smashing and killing seemingly irrationally nobody can feel save even if one is indeed objectively currently not a big threat. Exactly for those reasons it is one way to spread fear far and wide.
As the day nears its end, Kremlin troll army & their re-tweeters tweeted "sacrificial victim" 6,500 times, "provocation + Nemtsov" 15,000x.
OUTLAW 09
02-28-2015, 08:26 PM
Michael McFaul ✔ @McFaul
For English readers of this feed, you would be shocked to see how many Russians have tweeted that the "USA killed Nemtsov." Tragic.
#Donbas thug #Zakharchenko accuses #Chechnya thug #Kadyrov of murdering #Nemtsov...
50% of Zakharchenko's soldiers are Chechens
Russian federal TV channel releases video surveillance footage of Nemtsov's murder (video)
http://www.unian.info/world/1050001-russian-federal-tv-channel-releases-video-surveillance-footage-of-nemtsovs-murder-video.html … pic.twitter.com/Xka2b49AC1
#Nemtsov's final words: "We are drowning" in Putin's corruption, war & "Goebbels-like propaganda."@newsweek http://www.newsweek.com/final-interview-boris-nemtsov-310392
#Russia has highest % of police globally, 4,000 men guard the Kremlin, but for 12min no police came to aid #Nemtsov. pic.twitter.com/yqdvsFPSWd
OUTLAW 09
03-01-2015, 07:43 AM
Russian Communists preparing for demo today "against liberals on the streets and in govt": pic.twitter.com/eHb6b7sLRACatherineFitzpatrick @catfitz
I agree with @iponomarev that "audience" for murder is liberal intelligentisa in Russia and West, not "Russian public" to say "back off".
#Nemtsov-companion & #murder-scene #witness captured and kept hidden by #FSB (#Bortnikov): Ms. #Durytska of #Ukrainehttps://translate.google.com/translate?sl=uk&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pravda.com.ua%2Fnews%2F2015%2F0 2%2F28%2F7060097%2F&edit-text= …
VICE News ✔ @vicenews
"Everyone needs to come to the conclusion that the Kremlin with its propaganda has crossed the line": http://bit.ly/1G422FQ
Meanwhile Moscow Times had no trouble publishing analysis that "climate of hate" is a valid opinion re Nemtsov murder http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/analysts-blame-nemtsovs-death-on-russias-legitimized-hate/516716.html …
Knight: Any theory of Boris #Nemtsov murder that doesn't begin & end with Putin doesn't hold water. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0228/Who-was-Boris-Nemtsov-and-why-was-he-murdered-video …
Great question—based on the massive Russia disinformation JUST why does western media tend to both indirectly support and or say nothing?
Garry Kasparov ✔ @Kasparov63
Was on BBC & they also invited Putin's spokesman Peskov. Why invite propagandists to spread more lies? Why treat them like normal people?
BLOG: Analyzing the CCTV footage that seems to have captured assassination of Boris #Nemtsov http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/analyzing-cctv-footage-that-seemed-to.html … pic.twitter.com/IaeXrNnbX
GREAT OPEN SOURCE ANALYSIS WORK
davidbfpo
03-01-2015, 12:12 PM
A short BBC report on how the murder is being reported and ends citing the head of RT:
Stop making PR from bloodshed! What swine you are, on both sides. I'm speechless. You're no more than savages.
From the Twitter exchange to Russian TV:
State-run channels devoted most of their bulletins to the story. Reports were respectful in tone, with comment from officials and MPs, and commemorative montages set to solemn music. The privately-owned pro-Kremlin rolling news channel LifeNews (http://lifenews.ru/)gave almost blanket coverage to the killing, but was tabloid in tone, concentrating on Mr Nemtsov's private life, such as his relationship with the young woman who was at his side when he died.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31673512
OUTLAW 09
03-01-2015, 01:42 PM
A short BBC report on how the murder is being reported and ends citing the head of RT:
From the Twitter exchange to Russian TV:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31673512
Social media is summing up the current Nemtsov mourning march of silence in Moscow-one of the largest ever crowds in Moscow in literally years and not organized by Putin and company and not paid the 300 rubles per person to show up as was the recent Anti-Maidan march organized by the criminal biker gang Black Wolfs.
Came. THEY CAME, without orders and not for 300 rubles. Here is my real Russia. Proud" https://twitter.com/NEpytin/status
#Nemtsov marchers shout Russia without Putin, No to war, Russia will be free pic.twitter.com/6965oDYAom
Massive crowds, streaming live on @SvobodaRadio http://bit.ly/1CcIOfV pic.twitter.com/4Sm8ODbve0
4 bullets: Channel 1, NTV, RussiaToday, Russia24 #Nemtsov pic.twitter.com/39r9qTVZHE
Amazing pics coming out of Moscow rally in memory of Boris Nemtsov pic.twitter.com/YvihHNOTmE
OUTLAW 09
03-01-2015, 01:57 PM
Anna Duritskaya, with Nemtsov when killed, "under de facto house arrest" after giving evidence, can't go home to Kiev, lawyer tells @tvrain.
Today's Memorial March In Moscow May Be Largest Rally Since 2012 http://bit.ly/1zPvpVh
Organizers in #Moscow reported 70,000. Demonstrators at the funeral march of Boris #Nemtsov. #Russia pic.twitter.com/FQWgutQGuz
HUGE (via @svaboda) @meduza_en #Nemtsov pic.twitter.com/yFbfgIbwv9
And here comes the state propaganda after the massive crowds today:
#Russia TV just reminded us of REAL victim in #Nemtsov's murder:
#Putin, who now looks "bad" in eyes of evil West... pic.twitter.com/yQInvRB51M
@navalny had secret meeting w/ #Nemtsov,yet when he got home, reporter called asking what mtg was about. Krmln knew https://navalny.com/p/4154/
To remind: last interview of Boris #Nemtsov,hours before he was shot dead: http://empr.media/opinion/interviews/a-few-hours-before-being-shot-in-the-back-nemtsov-s-last-interview … |EMPR pic.twitter.com/oWvDwOMhR2
Current joke in Moscow:
Like all of the opposition, #Nemtsov was paid by @CIA & thus watched closely by the KGB. Who are so stupid they couldn't stop a US hit team.
OUTLAW 09
03-01-2015, 03:54 PM
The key theme by Kremlin trolls is: "Protest march was a failure, too few people". Yep, seems so. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_BKjmiXIAADXuJ.jpg:large …
Carl Bildt ✔ @carlbildt
Seems around 50.000 people marched through this afternoon Moscow to honour the memory of Boris Nemtsov. Impressive. pic.twitter.com/TVtvlEJizK
Ben Judah @b_judah
With 50k people marching for Nemtsov that would make it one if the largest protests since 2012. They never reached much above 100k.
OUTLAW 09
03-01-2015, 05:04 PM
Top Russian propaganda machine and the French Neo Right
Sputnik ✔ @SputnikInt
#LePen is confident Russia will conduct fair probe into death of #Nemtsovhttp://bit.ly/18cBbbS pic.twitter.com/GcVGrnfy9D
Human Rights Watch ✔ @hrw
Russia doesn't have a good track record investigating the killings of Kremlin criticshttp://bit.ly/1AXGmXG #Nemtsov pic.twitter.com/DWAUncVqUF
Putin’s spokesperson throwing in everything that could have killed him including the kitchen sink.
Peskov on the #Nemtsov murder. He is clearly just throwing out any and every theory and hoping it stickshttps://ninajobe.wordpress.com/2015/03/01/pes
OUTLAW 09
03-01-2015, 05:05 PM
We won't see this footage either:
Cameras on the #Moscow bridge where #Nemtsov was killed.
pic.twitter.com/2rM7m55lkB
Where is Poirot when we need him? Meduza with fine analysis of cctv. What's that snow plough doing? https://meduza.io/news/2015/02/28/tvts-opublikoval-zapisi-s-zafiksirovavshey-ubiystvo-borisa-nemtsova-kamery … (in Russian)
"My youth, my hopes, and the future of Russia: Nemtsov was a symbol of it all,” a linguistics teacher at the Nemtsov march today told me.
Theories about Possible Perpetrators of the Murder of Boris Nemtsov | The Interpreter http://bit.ly/1DGfBrB via @Interpreter_Mag
Saw multiple old pics on twitter claiming to be from today. It's so easy to avoid, use Chrome & do following steps: pic.twitter.com/K0ySHasnpO
Massive turnout in Moscow for opposition rally in honor of slain anti-Kremlin politician Nemtsov (via @EvgenyFeldman) pic.twitter.com/qvTAnzuA09
GREAT PHOTO!!
Boris Nemtsov was brusque, impatient, and rejected everything that Putin represents, by @Lucian_Kim http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/02/boris_nemtsov_s_murder_the_russian_opposition_lead er_was_one_of_vladimir.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_bot … via @slate
Bill Browder @Billbrowder
Boris Nemtsov fought for justice for Sergei Magnitsky. Now it is our duty for fight for justice for Boris Nemtsov pic.twitter.com/bp3Wvue0IO
Not that far-fetched. | Were Chechen Security Personnel Responsible For Nemtsov's Death? http://www.rferl.org/content/caucasus-report-did-kadyrov-kill-nemtsov/26875744.html …
mirhond
03-01-2015, 10:31 PM
A short BBC report on how the murder is being reported and ends citing the head of RT:
State-run channels devoted most of their bulletins to the story. Reports were respectful in tone, with comment from officials and MPs, and commemorative montages set to solemn music.
That's pretty well explainable - Nemtsov was a member of The Family in 90's, but after Putin's succession he went astray, so even after death he commanded some respect from Yeltsin's cronies.
To Understand Putin, Read Orwell
To Understand Outlaw, read Orwell, especially "Politics and English language" ^_^
In our time it is broadly true that political writing is bad writing. Where it is not true, it will generally be found that the writer is some kind of rebel, expressing his private opinions and not a ‘party line’. Orthodoxy, of whatever colour, seems to demand a lifeless, imitative style. The political dialects to be found in pamphlets, leading articles, manifestos, White papers and the speeches of undersecretaries do, of course, vary from party to party, but they are all alike in that one almost never finds in them a fresh, vivid, homemade turn of speech. When one watches some tired hack on the platform mechanically repeating the familiar phrases — bestial, atrocities, iron heel, bloodstained tyranny, free peoples of the world, stand shoulder to shoulder — one often has a curious feeling that one is not watching a live human being but some kind of dummy: a feeling which suddenly becomes stronger at moments when the light catches the speaker's spectacles and turns them into blank discs which seem to have no eyes behind them. And this is not altogether fanciful. A speaker who uses that kind of phraseology has gone some distance toward turning himself into a machine. The appropriate noises are coming out of his larynx, but his brain is not involved, as it would be if he were choosing his words for himself. If the speech he is making is one that he is accustomed to make over and over again, he may be almost unconscious of what he is saying, as one is when one utters the responses in church. And this reduced state of consciousness, if not indispensable, is at any rate favourable to political conformity.
"One the one hand, Russia must invade Ukraine because the Ukrainian state is repressive. (In fact, Ukraine is a democracy with free expression and is in every respect a freer country than Russia.)
Hilarious!!
Free speech Index, 2014
http://rsf.org/index2014/ru-index2014.php
Finland 1
USA 46
Ukraine 127
Russia 148
Reporters without borders: Summary of Attacks on Media
http://en.rsf.org/ukraine-summary-of-attacks-on-media-11-09-2014,46265.html
18.02.2015 - Ukraine withdraws accreditation from reporters for Russian media
16.02.2015 - Journalist and blogger jailed on treason charges
10.02.2014 - Bill would jail those who “deny or defend” Russian aggression
03.01.2015 - Masked men attack TV station’s headquarters in Kiev
11.09.2014 - 35 Russian journalists banned from visiting Ukraine
09.09.2014 - 15 Russian TV stations formally banned and so forth
OUTLAW 09
03-02-2015, 06:30 AM
That's pretty well explainable - Nemtsov was a member of The Family in 90's, but after Putin's succession he went astray, so even after death he commanded some respect from Yeltsin's cronies.
To Understand Outlaw, read Orwell, especially "Politics and English language" ^_^
Hilarious!!
Free speech Index, 2014
http://rsf.org/index2014/ru-index2014.php
Finland 1
USA 46
Ukraine 127
Russia 148
Reporters without borders: Summary of Attacks on Media http://en.rsf.org/ukraine-summary-of-attacks-on-media-11-09-2014,46265.html (http://en.rsf.org/ukraine-summary-of-attacks-on-media-11-09-2014,46265.html)
and so forth
so mirhond --let me get this straight--you are in effect stating for all see that the "freedom of speech and writing" is truly alive and well in the current Soviet Union sorry Russia???
come on mirhond even you do not believe that right?
let's see---the Russian FSB spent exactly TWO hours "investigating" a crime scene they then "washed away all forensics"---THEN they spent NINE hours tearing his apartment apart and taking all his computers--Seems that in the Soviet Union sorry Russia it is the victim that is investigated NOT the criminal---a totally new form of fighting criminal activity right???
LOOKING probably for the expose he was going to release on the Russian involvement in eastern Ukraine.
so mirhond---that rates as what in the Soviet Union sorry Russia---"freedom of speech and protection of investigative journalists"---really....?
PERFECT example of the great Soviet sorry Russian FSB investigative powers in the world's leading "freedom of speech and writing" nation.
check theses CCTVs located exactly at the scene of the execution--you cannot state "they were all not functioning" especially so close to the famous walls-
We won't see this footage either:
Cameras on the #Moscow bridge where #Nemtsov was killed.
pic.twitter.com/2rM7m55lkB
NOT a single photo or a video of the murderer or the execution team from this great famous investigative FSB team---strange is it not?????
one would think that in a open "freedom of speech" country you claim the SU sorry RU is--- the videos would be immediately released in what the SU sorry RU stated would be a "fair and transparent investigation into the execution". BUT I guess one could say "silence" is a form of "freedom of speech"?????
has not happened did it--well at least there is a reward----well so much for the so called SU sorry RU "freedom of speech"
but there has never been "freedom of speech" in the Soviet Union sorry Russia has it mirhond--but wait you are expressing it here at SWJ right?????
WAIT---found the "famous Russian freedom of speech" and it is called "propaganda"..........
The key theme by Kremlin trolls is: "Protest march was a failure, too few people". Yep, seems so. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_BKjmiXIAADXuJ.jpg:large …
BUT wait.......they cannot even count people at a demo-so "seeing freedom of speech" might be hard unless it hit them full in the face--strange???
hey mirhond---check this from the "land of freedom of speech called social media"---they were QUICKER than the FSB.....
Super enlarged part of #Nemtsov CCTV where follower can be seen disappearing after cleaning car passed. http://youtu.be/pUi9SIIYF4w
MORE GREAT examples of the "famous soviet sorry Russian "freedom of speech"
INFOGRAPHIC #Russian opposition members killed since #Putin rise to power. A long bloody trail. pic.twitter.com/vQTpMFUUce
OUTLAW 09
03-02-2015, 12:02 PM
That's pretty well explainable - Nemtsov was a member of The Family in 90's, but after Putin's succession he went astray, so even after death he commanded some respect from Yeltsin's cronies.
To Understand Outlaw, read Orwell, especially "Politics and English language" ^_^
Hilarious!!
Free speech Index, 2014 http://rsf.org/index2014/ru-index2014.php
Finland 1
USA 46
Ukraine 127
Russia 148
Reporters without borders: Summary of Attacks on Media
http://en.rsf.org/ukraine-summary-of-attacks-on-media-11-09-2014,46265.html
and so forth
mirhond---here is a great "freedom of speech" comment from a Russian troll today referencing WHY 18 CCTV cameras were not working at the time of the execution AND 5 were pointed at the exact execution site.
The #CIA messed with the cameras around the Kremlin AND on the bridge before they killed #Nemtsov!!
AND now from the actual Russian security department handling the CCTVs---they were ALL down for maintenance at exactly 2230 at the exact time of the execution.
come on mirhond ALL down for maintenance and it was the CIA BUT hey that is "freedom of speech" in the SU sorry Russia.
Posted before the latest assassination of a member of the opposition The Absurd world of Russian Public Opinion (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/the-absurd-world-of-russian-public-opinion/516531.html) is a reflection on said sad state.
Hurray! We are attacking! Thank God! Many are dead and wounded! Thank God!" Thus exclaimed "good soldier Svejk" from the eponymous immortal novel by Jaroslav Hasek. And Russian public opinion today is no less absurd.
As I have written a year ago this conflict can take many years. Much poison has been injected into the minds of many Russians through relentless and massive propaganda falling on often fertile soil.
However this too will pass one day, likely far away. The economy is now heading south at a surprising speed and we will see how long Putin's apparat will endure economic hardship. The war is of course of great importance for the internal politics because imaginative external enemies help to the gang on top to conserve the power.
Thankfully most people in Europe or the USA are hardly affected by the downwards spiral of the Russian economy. If weakening Russia was a goal for some Western players then it was achieved brilliantly by Putin and company who however did a great job on getting a far tighter grip on power. Never let a selfcaused crisis go to waste.
OUTLAW 09
03-04-2015, 01:59 PM
RenTV reports the investigators got cam pictures of two of the suspect killers, likely "from southern regions of RF" https://meduza.io/news/2015/03/04/ren-tv-uznal-o-poluchenii-sledstviem-kadrov-s-ubiytsami-nemtsova …
Putin's call to end political murders seems to tell Nemtsov investigators to knock off "jealous lover" & "slighted businessman" theories
Is #Kremlin trying to scapegoat 'rogue' figures in security structures with this car info release?
davidbfpo
03-19-2015, 12:32 PM
Not exactly what a headline one expects to read; the title is taken from an Open Democracy article's sub-title:
The murder of Boris Nemtsov tells us not that Putin is a strong leader, but rather one who has lost his grip.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/sean-guillory/who-killed-boris-nemtsov
mirhond
03-19-2015, 07:51 PM
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/sean-guillory/who-killed-boris-nemtsov
Thanks, this article is must read for anyone who believes to know Russian political structure, ecpetially Putin's worshippers, like You-Know-Who
Russia remains a fragmented state, with power organised more in networks and circles than vertical structures. Putin is more a creature of the system than its owner. And ironically, the myth of the power vertical is more authoritative than the leader’s constitutional prerogatives.
AdamG
03-21-2015, 04:56 PM
I wonder what else he'll change midsentence, without even messing up the syntax?
Vladimir Putin calls for 'Eurasia' currency union
Russian president says currency union with Belarus and Kazakhstan could help overcome falling oil prices and decline of rouble
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11485352/Vladimir-Putin-calls-for-Eurasia-currency-union.html
mirhond, my friend, this story makes mess bigger again.
One recent technical task, former employee Lena told Radio Liberty, was devoted to the murder of prominent Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov.
"It was mandatory to convey the message to the people that Nemtsov's murder was a provocation ahead of the [opposition] march and that he was killed by his own associates," she said.
"As a result, hundreds and thousands of comments, where this idea is served up under different dressings, emerge under every news article of leading media," she added.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31962644
OUTLAW 09
03-23-2015, 11:50 AM
mirhond, my friend, this story makes mess bigger again.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31962644
Ah.....the perfect example of Russian "informational conflict".
mirhond
03-26-2015, 09:11 PM
mirhond, my friend, this story makes mess bigger again.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31962644
:confused: I don't follow, what story, what mess? You mean that assasination of a harmless although charismatic demagogue will shake Putin's standing, or what?
Group of scientist made report to former minister Kudrin. The same group told about possible mass protest before Bolotnaya 2011.
A newly published report titled "Between Crimea and the Crisis" puts forward two scenarios of Russia's future, both of which predict serious domestic upheavals. Everything hinges on the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict. How likely are these scenarios?
The first envisages an end to the military conflict in Ukraine and a concurrent relaxation of the international pressure on Russia, which, with the lack of an external threat, will redirect citizens’ attention to the problems of the economy. The aggression currently focused on perceived external enemies will be channeled towards internal ones: "officials and migrants." Support for the government will drastically fall, which could lead to serious economic protests similar in size to the ones in 2011-2012.
The second scenario looks at the possible consequences of a protracted armed conflict and posits that "the mass consciousness will support the country's self-isolation." In such a situation, says the report, the aggression towards the perceived external enemy will remain, but weariness of the conflict and the crisis will lead to protests and "the gradual erosion of support for the government."
http://in.rbth.com/politics/2015/04/06/political_stability_in_russia_depends_on_ukraine_r eport_42427.html
Economist writes about this report too and concludes.
The object of this aggression can vary: two years ago it was migrants and corrupt officials. Now it is the West, “national traitors” and a “fifth column” that included Boris Nemtsov, a liberal politician assassinated in Moscow in February. In this way the Kremlin’s aggression has become a narcotic that may lead to an overdose, causing it to lose control. Indeed, the mood could one day switch from an external enemy back to Mr Putin himself, not least because the image of America constructed by the Kremlin’s propaganda bears such a close resemblance to the reality of Russia.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21648678-russias-president-trapped-his-own-strident-anti-western-rhetoric-how-vladimir-putin-tries
Recent interview with Dmitriev covering the same topic.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/predicting-the-future-with-russia-s-economic-nostradamus/517659.html
The whole report in Russian is here. Very enjoyable reading about social mood dynamics and how Kremlin has been riding on it and directing it, were they find it possible.
http://komitetgi.ru/upload/iblock/1e1/1e1e18532a6a39c7ab4f0311c7b08943.docx
The “Russian World”
Russia’s Soft Power and Geopolitical Imagination
Marlene Laruelle
May 2015
http://globalinterests.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FINAL-CGI_Russian-World_Marlene-Laruelle.pdf
mirhond
06-04-2015, 04:38 PM
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/02/what-russian-literature-tells-us-about-vladimir-putins-world/
What Russian Literature Tells Us About Vladimir Putin’s World
The most funny title I've ever seen at FP.
Something is very wrong with cognitive mechanisms of a political writers, if anyone believe that reading dusty classics could help with undrestanding of the current political reality. Will readiing Diсkens help to penetrate Cameron's ratio, will it be useful to deconstruct Frenau's texts in order to understand Obama politics? :D
OUTLAW 09
06-04-2015, 06:16 PM
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/02/what-russian-literature-tells-us-about-vladimir-putins-world/
What Russian Literature Tells Us About Vladimir Putin’s World
The most funny title I've ever seen at FP.
Something is very wrong with cognitive mechanisms of a political writers, if anyone believe that reading dusty classics could help with undrestanding of the current political reality. Will readiing Diсkens help to penetrate Cameron's ratio, will it be useful to deconstruct Frenau's texts in order to understand Obama politics? :D
comrade mirhond--am assuming you have read Orwell's 1984--great for understanding Russian fascism and Russian double-speak don't you think????
mirhond
06-04-2015, 08:29 PM
comrade mirhond--am assuming you have read Orwell's 1984--great for understanding Russian fascism and Russian double-speak don't you think????
Are you completely oblivious? I've cited Orwell (some of his texts you've never read, I believe) several times. Anyway, you nedn't to read Orwell particulary to understand any fascism, it wery well speaks for itself.
ps. Homework for you - bring here Duma regulation that allows Ministry of Justice to punish subjects for a thoughtcrime.
Dishonesty
06-05-2015, 06:14 PM
It is simply
Умо́м Росси́ю не поня́ть
(You cannot understand Russia with your mind)
__________
Ceterum autem censeo, Sarmatia esse delendam
mirhond
06-05-2015, 06:30 PM
It is simply
Умо́м Росси́ю не поня́ть
(You cannot understand Russia with your mind)
..and it is also just a funny bull$hit.
OUTLAW 09
06-05-2015, 06:44 PM
Are you completely oblivious? I've cited Orwell (some of his texts you've never read, I believe) several times. Anyway, you nedn't to read Orwell particulary to understand any fascism, it wery well speaks for itself.
ps. Homework for you - bring here Duma regulation that allows Ministry of Justice to punish subjects for a thoughtcrime.
comrade mirhond--since he is Russia's best friend--which of the 4Ds of Russian propaganda is he using?
will be relatively easy for you--but will list them--dismiss, distort, distract, dismay
Or is he just crazy???
War Criminal and crippled Zakharchenko is getting delusional about the attack on Marinka: 400 killed and 1000 wounded pic.twitter.com/WBQGGNqNB7
BUT since he was at the battle--then he is crazy as no one else seems to have mentioned the same numbers.
Zako Subdivision: It looks as though terrorist leader #Zakharchenko led the attack in #Marinka. pic.twitter.com/WlEQRbrG3r
OUTLAW 09
06-05-2015, 06:58 PM
Zako Subdivision: It looks as though terrorist leader #Zakharchenko led the attack in #Marinka. pic.twitter.com/WlEQRbrG3r
Seems that no one in the Russian FM knows "truth from lies"---
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Russian UN envoy Vitaly Churkin: Western irritation grows as Kiev further violates #Ukraine ceasefire —
http://tass.ru/en/world/799151 @RussiaUN
List of Russian specialists tried to understand Putin's Russia here. This Natalia Zubarevich's, author of "Four Russias" concept, opinion reminds me mirhond's golden era.
It is unlikely that the post-Soviet imperial syndrome will be over- come during the next 10–15 years. Not only has nostalgia for the USSR survived in the minds of the older generations, but also the imperial myth is being successfully reproduced in the minds of Russia’s younger people. The period of abrupt intensification of flag waving cannot last long, but support for Putin’s policy of, to use the regime’s official language, “in-gathering of the Russian lands” is here to stay for a long time as a value choice made by most Russians, no matter where they live.
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Putins-Russia.pdf#page=27
OUTLAW 09
06-05-2015, 07:18 PM
comrade mirhond--since he is Russia's best friend--which of the 4Ds of Russian propaganda is he using?
will be relatively easy for you--but will list them--dismiss, distort, distract, dismay
Or is he just crazy???
War Criminal and crippled Zakharchenko is getting delusional about the attack on Marinka: 400 killed and 1000 wounded pic.twitter.com/WBQGGNqNB7
BUT since he was at the battle--then he is crazy as no one else seems to have mentioned the same numbers.
Zako Subdivision: It looks as though terrorist leader #Zakharchenko led the attack in #Marinka. pic.twitter.com/WlEQRbrG3r
Dugin joins the choir: ukrainian armada and foreign mercenaries attacked from #Marinka on Petrovski dist of #Donetsk https://twitter.com/A_G_Dugin/status/606885933460398080 …
OUTLAW 09
06-05-2015, 08:02 PM
comrade mirhond--since he is Russia's best friend--which of the 4Ds of Russian propaganda is he using?
will be relatively easy for you--but will list them--dismiss, distort, distract, dismay
Or is he just crazy???
War Criminal and crippled Zakharchenko is getting delusional about the attack on Marinka: 400 killed and 1000 wounded pic.twitter.com/WBQGGNqNB7
BUT since he was at the battle--then he is crazy as no one else seems to have mentioned the same numbers.
Zako Subdivision: It looks as though terrorist leader #Zakharchenko led the attack in #Marinka. pic.twitter.com/WlEQRbrG3r
He seems to have been lying----
Video emerged with Zakharchenko on day of #Marinka battle, apparently they talk about heavy losses and orders retreat http://inforesist.org/terrorista-zaxarchenko-zametili-pod-marinkoj/?_utl_t=tw …
mirhond
06-05-2015, 10:07 PM
War Criminal and crippled Zakharchenko is getting delusional about the attack on Marinka: 400 killed and 1000 wounded pic.twitter.com/WBQGGNqNB7
BUT since he was at the battle--then he is crazy as no one else seems to have mentioned the same numbers.
Dugin joins the choir: ukrainian armada and foreign mercenaries attacked from #Marinka on Petrovski dist of #Donetsk
@ kaur
Music to me ears, that's a good collection of articles. Could I humbly ask you to visit the Ukraine threads - allmost nothing from you there for some time.
OUTLAW 09
06-06-2015, 05:51 AM
@ kaur
Music to me ears, that's a good collection of articles. Could I humbly ask you to visit the Ukraine threads - allmost nothing from you there for some time.
care to comment????
There's a phrase missing betw "grows as" and "Kiev" 2wit "Russia shows contempt for Minsk and continues to lie that" https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/606889731310428160 …
Putin tells Italian paper Russia backs Ukraine peace deal http://reut.rs/1ATxci9nternatio
comrade mirhond--notice even Putin uses the Russian propaganda 4Ds---this time he uses the distort and distract and a little dismiss thrown in Ds.
The invasion of #Ukraine remains the greatest existential threat to international security" http://www.newsweek.com/putins-thinly-veiled-threat-nuclear-war-working-339817 … pic.twitter.com/oyiLnPB7Yc
Very sad: Russia's finest old entrepreneur and philanthrop Dmitry Zimin forced to leave Russia. The best of all. http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2015/06/05/595436-osnovatel-dinastii-zimin-pokinul-rossiyu---rbk …
Illustrative: Donetsk rebels stole more than $12 million from A Yanukovych's bank in
Donetsk. Collateral damage? http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2015/06/5/7070300/ …
mirhond
06-06-2015, 03:38 PM
care to comment????
1. There's a phrase missing betw "grows as" and "Kiev" 2wit "Russia shows contempt for Minsk and continues to lie that" https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/606889731310428160 …
2. Putin tells Italian paper Russia backs Ukraine peace deal http://reut.rs/1ATxci9nternatio
3. comrade mirhond--notice even Putin uses the Russian propaganda 4Ds---this time he uses the distort and distract and a little dismiss thrown in Ds.
4. The invasion of #Ukraine remains the greatest existential threat to international security" http://www.newsweek.com/putins-thinly-veiled-threat-nuclear-war-working-339817 … pic.twitter.com/oyiLnPB7Yc
5. Very sad: Russia's finest old entrepreneur and philanthrop Dmitry Zimin forced to leave Russia. The best of all. http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2015/06/05/595436-osnovatel-dinastii-zimin-pokinul-rossiyu---rbk …
6. Illustrative: Donetsk rebels stole more than $12 million from A Yanukovych's bank in
Donetsk. Collateral damage? http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2015/06/5/7070300/ …
1. I don't understand a word in your sentence.
2. Link is broken.
3. What is it - Captain Obvious account?
4. I don't think tabloid hysteria worth any comments.
5. Yes, that's crap... nothing too special, though - it's just a part of a great cosplay Russian political class participating in, unconsciously trying to look like USA, with strong religious lobby, Homeland Security nonsense and so on.
6. it is usually called "spoils of war".
OUTLAW 09
06-06-2015, 06:25 PM
1. I don't understand a word in your sentence.
2. Link is broken.
3. What is it - Captain Obvious account?
4. I don't think tabloid hysteria worth any comments.
5. Yes, that's crap... nothing too special, though - it's just a part of a great cosplay Russian political class participating in, unconsciously trying to look like USA, with strong religious lobby, Homeland Security nonsense and so on.
6. it is usually called "spoils of war".
sound familiar comrade mirhond--
Video: My life as a pro-Putin propagandist in Russia’s secret 'troll factory' | via @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...l-factory.html …
OUTLAW 09
06-06-2015, 06:30 PM
1. I don't understand a word in your sentence.
2. Link is broken.
3. What is it - Captain Obvious account?
4. I don't think tabloid hysteria worth any comments.
5. Yes, that's crap... nothing too special, though - it's just a part of a great cosplay Russian political class participating in, unconsciously trying to look like USA, with strong religious lobby, Homeland Security nonsense and so on.
6. it is usually called "spoils of war".
clear enough for you---
Russian propaganda has 4Ds--dismiss, distract, distort, dismay designed to create 2Ds --distrust and doubt
you for example work in the realm of distract, distort, dismiss
clear enough now---
mirhond
06-07-2015, 12:02 PM
clear enough for you---
Russian propaganda has 4Ds--dismiss, distract, distort, dismay designed to create 2Ds --distrust and doubt
you for example work in the realm of distract, distort, dismiss
clear enough now---
Oh, I see now... reality hurts your believes and evidences distort your cognitive abilities. Bad for you, but I can't help you with this problem.
OUTLAW 09
06-07-2015, 12:15 PM
Oh, I see now... reality hurts your believes and evidenses distort your cognitive abilities. Bad for you, but I can't help you with this problem.
comrade mirhond--should have added those that use these propaganda tactics tend to use avoidance when directly questioned
recognize anything ???
mirhond
06-07-2015, 12:41 PM
sound familiar comrade mirhond--
Video: My life as a pro-Putin propagandist in Russia’s secret 'troll factory' | via @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...l-factory.html …
Link is broken, as usual.
What amuses me most - you, Westerners, have unshakeable believe that political trolling works. Somehow it considered as granted without any evidence - isn't it pretty?
comrade mirhond--should have added those that use these propaganda tactics tend to use avoidance when directly questioned
recognize anything ???
When you put yourself up and stop posting irrelevant and rethoric questions about Ukraine here, I'll answer any of your questions about Russia, politics and power: internal & external written in legible English
OUTLAW 09
06-07-2015, 01:00 PM
Link is broken, as usual.
What amuses me most - you, Westerners, have unshakeable believe that political trolling works. Somehow it considered as granted without any evidence - isn't it pretty?
When you put yourself up and stop posting irrelevant and rethoric questions about Ukraine here, I'll answer any of your questions about Russia, politics and power: internal & external written in legible English
see comrade mirhond--you still do not get it--has not Putin declared to the whole world he is in the Ukraine to "protect" ethnic Russian speakers" so therefore Russia equates to the Ukraine and yet you somehow missed it--but back to Russia --here is a whole series for you to respond to and take your time.
(Novo)russian "anti-fascists" in Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/yPw7ZbzG5M
1. number one for your response--600 USDs is what your Russian mercenary is holding in his hand by the way
Even Fascist Nazis were kinder than DPR scum!" says elderly #Donbas woman who survived WWII
http://politolog.net/ato/fashisty-byli-dobree-set-vzorvali-zhaloby-zhitelnicy-marinki-na-terroristov-dnr-video/ … pic.twitter.com/nVPB3pEEG9
2. number two--how can it be that Nazi's have treated ethnic Russians better in the past than do your Russian mercenaries now--how can that be mirhond??
Left: The new building of the State Duma of the Russian Federation .. over 350k sqm. Right: Hitler's Germania. pic.twitter.com/bCgsWs8Q33
3. how can it be that when Russians build buildings and they always try to compete with the designs from Hitler--thought that Russia was anti Nazi???
I love the politicized Russian TV weatherman. Here he is talking about "meteorological warfare." pic.twitter.com/Otdsv1JEqM
OUTLAW 09
06-07-2015, 01:12 PM
Link is broken, as usual.
What amuses me most - you, Westerners, have unshakeable believe that political trolling works. Somehow it considered as granted without any evidence - isn't it pretty?
When you put yourself up and stop posting irrelevant and rethoric questions about Ukraine here, I'll answer any of your questions about Russia, politics and power: internal & external written in legible English
comrade mirhond--here is a specific Russian question for you--can you explain to the rest of the world just how it is possible or why it was Russia was invited to the G7 --G8 before Putin got booted out. the last time I checked the US pushed to have Russia a member.
remember the G7 is suppose to represent the seven strongest economic/political nations BUT more emphasis is placed on the economics than politics.
THEN how is it possible that the US State of California has a far larger economy than that of the entire nation of Russia?
should California have been the 8th member of the G7 instead of Russia?
strange is it not that the Californian state economy is far stronger than the entire economy of Russia and they do not have the oil and gas of Russia??
so again where did the 4Tillion USDs go in the last 15 years that Russia has earned just alone on oil and gas??
OUTLAW 09
06-07-2015, 01:16 PM
comrade mirhond--get ready for more accusations that Russia has been lying on the shot down of MH17--seems your own MoD cannot get their own stories straight but again it is Russia.
Seven mistakes in their satellite photos vs commercial satellite photos--though Russia had better spy satellites?
bellingcat @bellingcat
Initial work on our new July 17th sat imagery report has identified 7 major discrepancies in the Russian MoD imagery. More next week. #MH17
Nothing good to expect from Putin. Kirill Rogov about new supermajority.
Unlike the Brezhnev version of conservative stabilization, which
combined pinpointed and limited reprisals with the expansion of domestic consumption through broader use of oil and gas rent incomes, the present regime can hardly count on rent expansion. In fact, their contraction because of Russia’s economic decline is more likely. With that dynamic in mind, it appears that an effective inter- nal mobilization policy may involve radical redistribution of rent flows designed to support a new anti-Western coalition, broader oppressive practices and tighter ideological control of society, and a fairly high level of external confrontation and drummed-up threats facing society and blocking resumption of the civil agenda that was formed during the precrisis period.
Putin has in effect scrapped the slogans of stability and sta- tus-quo maintenance that he used in his 2012 election campaign by launching the preventive counterrevolution mechanism. As I have attempted to show, the emerging internal tensions and the specific mechanisms of the authoritarian equilibrium triggered the regime’s break with the previous modus operandi and its transition toward a conflict-ridden scenario. The question is how well Putin will be able to control this scenario.
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Putins-Russia.pdf#page=27
Goble wrote about Boeing and lies last August citing Andrei Malgin. 4D concept is good to explain things.
Writing in The Moscow Times on July 30, Andrei Malgin pointed to just how differently the Russian authorities behaved after the shooting down of the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 airliner compared to how the Soviet ones reacted when they shot down KAL Flight 007 in 1983. At that time, he writes, “Soviet media did not deny the incident but focused all its propaganda efforts on explaining the context of how it happened” (The Moscow Times, July 30).
This time, however, “the Kremlin-controlled media has repeatedly [and variously] claimed that: the airplane was not shot down at all, but fell out of the sky by itself; a bomb exploded aboard the airplane; the airplane was hit by a Ukrainian missile fired from the ground; a Ukrainian air force fighter pursued and then attacked the plane; the [United States] shot down the plane in order to damage Russia’s reputation; no living people were aboard the plane as it flew on autopilot from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with ‘rotting corpses.’ ”
The Moscow commentator argued that under President Vladimir Putin, “it was not enough to simply twist the facts to their own purposes” because “when propaganda is based on nuances of interpretation, the chance always remains that someone with a fresh perspective or a critical mindset can cast doubt on those claims.” But, Malgin says, “when the authorities base their propaganda entirely on lies, they achieve their desired result faster and leave no room for doubt” (The Moscow Times, July 30).
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42745#.VXRNFnBXerU
davidbfpo
06-07-2015, 03:42 PM
The allegedly 'broken link' to a UK report on trolling is below:
Ms Savchuk says that for two months, she worked as one of scores of "internet operators" in a secretive “troll factory” called Internet Research, an anonymous four-storey building on a back street in St Petersburg, Russia’s former tsarist capital and Mr Putin’s hometown.
Ms Savchuk’s job was to spend 12 hours a day praising the Kremlin and lambasting its perceived enemies on social networks, blogs and the comment sections of online media.
The trolls' task, reminiscent of the black arts of Soviet disinformation, was to attack any opponent of the Russian authorities, be it dissenting politicians, pro-European Ukrainians or even Barack Obama – who was branded a "monkey" because of his black skin.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11656043/My-life-as-a-pro-Putin-propagandist-in-Russias-secret-troll-factory.html
mirhond
06-07-2015, 07:12 PM
* see comrade mirhond--you still do not get it--has not Putin declared to the whole world he is in the Ukraine to "protect" ethnic Russian speakers" so therefore Russia equates to the Ukraine and yet you somehow missed it--but back to Russia --here is a whole series for you to respond to and take your time.
** (Novo)russian "anti-fascists" in Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/yPw7ZbzG5M
*** 1. number one for your response--600 USDs is what your Russian mercenary is holding in his hand by the way
**** Even Fascist Nazis were kinder than DPR scum!" says elderly #Donbas woman who survived WWII
http://politolog.net/ato/fashisty-byli-dobree-set-vzorvali-zhaloby-zhitelnicy-marinki-na-terroristov-dnr-video/ … pic.twitter.com/nVPB3pEEG9
***** 2. number two--how can it be that Nazi's have treated ethnic Russians better in the past than do your Russian mercenaries now--how can that be mirhond??
****** Left: The new building of the State Duma of the Russian Federation .. over 350k sqm. Right: Hitler's Germania. pic.twitter.com/bCgsWs8Q33
3. how can it be that when Russians build buildings and they always try to compete with the designs from Hitler--thought that Russia was anti Nazi???
I love the politicized Russian TV weatherman. Here he is talking about "meteorological warfare." pic.twitter.com/Otdsv1JEqM
* Your lingo baffles me. has not Putin declared to the whole world he is in the Ukraine to "protect" ethnic Russian speakers" so therefore Russia equates to the Ukraine - I don't understand this phrase. Do you mean Putin have said Russia=Ukraine, or what? Have mercy, please, I'am too slow to follow your stream of consciuosness.
** Irrelevant to the topic.
*** What are you talking about?
**** Pure chance. Granny was spared by WW2 but now she has bad luck to live in a combat zone.
****** Strange, but entire runet gives just a handful of search results. 90% probability you just copypasted some bull$hit. Anyway, If you don't like monumental architecture - that's only your problem, not Russian state problem :) Hitler was good at painting urban landscapes - by your logic, any painter who draws a building is Nazi.
mirhond
06-07-2015, 09:52 PM
comrade mirhond--here is a specific Russian question for you--can you explain to the rest of the world just how it is possible or why it was Russia was invited to the G7 --G8 before Putin got booted out. the last time I checked the US pushed to have Russia a member.
remember the G7 is suppose to represent the seven strongest economic/political nations BUT more emphasis is placed on the economics than politics.
1. THEN how is it possible that the US State of California has a far larger economy than that of the entire nation of Russia?
2. should California have been the 8th member of the G7 instead of Russia?
3. strange is it not that the Californian state economy is far stronger than the entire economy of Russia and they do not have the oil and gas of Russia??
4. so again where did the 4Tillion USDs go in the last 15 years that Russia has earned just alone on oil and gas??
1. You may start reading A. Smith The Wealth of Nations and D. Ricardo On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, for instance.
2. Irrelevant, rethorical bull$hit.
3. See p. 1.
4. Rethorical, but if you insist, see http://old.minfin.ru/en/, and look in the pockets of political class.
yours, Captain Obvious.
The allegedly 'broken link' to a UK report on trolling is below:
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11656043/My-life-as-a-pro-Putin-propagandist-in-Russias-secret-troll-factory.html
Finally, active link, thanks gawd. Do you bothered to watch "spy video"? Very intriguing. :D Anyway, this is a good evidence Russian bureaucracy is completely barren of imagination, retroactive, stupid and ineffective. I believe no person in charge of this "troll factory" ever bothered do search internets for vigilant volunteers, who would do their job for free, just for the sport sake.
davidbfpo
08-12-2015, 03:23 PM
A short article by RFE / RL that starts in the Artic, moves to the Ukraine, energy and quickly concludes:
The Kremlin leader is caught in a trap of his own making, between economic and political imperatives.
Link:http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-actually-in-serious-trouble-2015-8#ixzz3ic9GjKtM
As for:
But at least Putin is still winning the battle for hearts and minds, right?.....the numbers are dismal across the board. In Europe, just 26% view Russia favorably, in the Middle East, only 25% do. In Latin America, it's only 29%. In the regions most favorably inclined toward Russia — Asia and Africa — it's just 37%. And if Russia's global image is bad, Putin's is dismal. Worldwide, just 24% trust him. In Europe, just 15% do.
Such favourable views of Russia, even if a minority, are significant and IMHO act as a brake on diplomacy at a minimum.
Bill Moore
08-13-2015, 06:26 AM
A short article by RFE / RL that starts in the Artic, moves to the Ukraine, energy and quickly concludes:
Link:http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-actually-in-serious-trouble-2015-8#ixzz3ic9GjKtM
As for:
Such favourable views of Russia, even if a minority, are significant and IMHO act as a brake on diplomacy at a minimum.
Polls are inherently misleading based on interpretation of the questions, but still I found some the individual country results surprising.
I'm assuming many in Western Europe that support Putin are with the far right, which as I understand from my reading of current events is growing.
Some of the surprises
Philippines 44% had favorable view of Russia
South Korea 46%???
Ghana 56%
Bill Moore
02-28-2016, 06:59 AM
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/18023/putin-vs-putin-why-russia-was-its-own-worst-enemy-in-2015
Putin vs. Putin: Why Russia Was Its Own Worst Enemy in 2015
Russia’s bold military interventions in both Ukraine and Syria have put Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions back at the center of analysis and debate. Despite last year’s confident claims in Western capitals that Moscow would be unable to sustain its efforts in both countries, there is no indication that the Kremlin plans to alter its policies in 2016. To the contrary, Russian President Vladimir Putin, having decided that core national interests are at stake, has made it clear that he will stay the course.
At the same time, however, Russia continues to pay a heavy economic price exacted by international sanctions and declining energy revenues, which threaten its long-term global ambitions and may generate increasing popular unrest at home.
Putin has an urgent “to do” list for 2016 that in many ways also reads like a wish list: replenish the Russian treasury and sovereign wealth funds; get the economy back on track for growth; remove conditions for unrest inside of Russia; and, of critical importance to him both personally and strategically, avoid backing down to the United States by admitting defeat in Ukraine and Syria.
AdamG
04-20-2016, 01:48 PM
"Should Turkey not stop supporting al-Qaeda's Syria branch, I am indeed eager to end the job the late Tsar Nicholas II left unfinished. During the World War I , He [Tsar] sought to restore Constantinople (Istanbul) to Christendom and protect Russian maritime security by liberating Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits but fate prevented him," TASS Russian News Agency cited President Putin as saying on Saturday. We also advocate Greek sovereignty over the Cyprus, added Putin, and call the Turkish regime to end its decades-long occupation of this Mediterranean island.
http://awdnews.com/top-news/putin-if-turkey-s-erdo%C4%9Fan-doesn-t-stop-supporting-terrorists-in-syria,-i-shall-restore-constantinople-istanbul-to-christendom
Mr Petrov from Moscow comments Putin's downfall.
- Russia’s political regime is unsustainable. It has no capacity to reform, and faces growing economic woes, crumbling infrastructure, and warring elites.
- After widespread protests and ebbing of support, the government began in 2014 to base its legitimacy on winning wars. Putin centralised all power in the presidency, suppressing dissent and weakening institutions in the process.
- Now, the regime needs to keep delivering military victories or face a loss of support. Excessive centralisation makes the system unstable and ine cient, focused on survival rather than strategy. As sanctions bite and funds run short, the elites are growing impatient, and the chance of con ict is rising in regions such as the Caucasus.
- There are two ways out for the Russian regime: improve its nances by reconciling with the West, or regain legitimacy by replacing the president. Even these will only buy it time, and may not prevent a total collapse.
- There is no clear heir to Putin, and collapse could be followed by the redistribution of power to various government bodies, companies, and regions, including Chechnya.
http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_166_PUTINS_DOWNFALL.pdf
Chatham House report "Agents of the Russian World: Proxy Groups in the Contested Neighbourhood"
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/agents-russian-world-proxy-groups-contested-neighbourhood
mirhond
04-25-2016, 07:17 PM
http://awdnews.com/top-news/putin-if-turkey-s-erdo%C4%9Fan-doesn-t-stop-supporting-terrorists-in-syria,-i-shall-restore-constantinople-istanbul-to-christendom
Sounds like total and complete bullsh!t, would you please provide the source of this nonsense?
davidbfpo
04-25-2016, 07:45 PM
Sounds like total and complete bullsh!t, would you please provide the source of this nonsense?
Mirhond,
AdamG did provide a link, although on a quick check it is hard to identify the bona fides of http://awdnews.com.
Typed too soon, it appears to be Berlin-based. Its YouTube entry states:
AwdNews is a News Website empowered by Social Networking capabilities aimed at providing unbiased news reported by its users along its own reporters.
mirhond
04-25-2016, 08:49 PM
Mirhond,
AdamG did provide a link, although on a quick check it is hard to identify the bona fides of http://awdnews.com.
Typed too soon, it appears to be Berlin-based. Its YouTube entry states:
When I asked for source, I meant actual quotation from tass.ru
or, at least, a screenshot, or anything. No evidence so far.
Meanwhile tass.ru has neat English version, but it also shows nothing like this piece of batsh!t
moreover, google gives relevant links only to pretty much "alternative" news sites, facebook and other oh-so-trusted sources sharing just one identical entry.
http://europeanpressagency.com/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-if-turkeys-erdogan-doesnt-stop-supporting-terrorists-in-syria-i-shall-restore-constantinople-istanbul-to-christendom#
gives a link on Putin's speech in 2013 (as if his usual rant about decadent West makes this particular crap true). Lame, so lame, even worse than outlaw-stile
Sapienti sat.
JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION - Pavel K. Baev (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45672&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=e6cace807103d5c35328ab332ca3fd8f#.V5ezTrsrKU k)
President Vladimir Putin is not taking a summer vacation. He has instead maintained a busy schedule of meetings with government officials and regional governors. But his grip on the steering wheel of Russia’s foreign and domestic policy is far from steady. The heavily censored Russian TV footage still portrays him as strong and confident, yet Putin’s public statements increasingly sound odd—like his point about a “certain positive and noticeable warming-up in interactions between state structures and civil society” (Kremlin.ru, July 21). In reality, few civil society organizations likely appreciate the pressure on them from the special services. Indeed, last week (July 22), the think tank run by former Putin aide Andrei Illarionov was labeled a “foreign agent” (RBC, July 22). Andrei Piontkovsky, a well-known Russian commentator, was even less fortunate: on July 23, his Moscow flat was ransacked by the Federal Security Service (FSB) without any warrant (Moscow Echo, July 23). Such small matters are almost certainly below Putin’s station, but he has also been suspiciously absent from matters more definitely requiring presidential decisions.
The most urgent of such matters may be the escalation of squabbles among the siloviki (security services personnel). Notably, the FSB has launched an unprecedented attack on the Investigative Committee on the pretext of a $1 million bribe from a criminal boss (Kommersant, July 19). Seven high-level prosecutors were detained, and the searches of their offices yielded suitcases of cash as well as a collection of watches evaluated at half a million euros (around $550 million) (Gazeta.ru, July 21). The Investigative Committee, headed by Alexander Bastyrkin, was in charge of high-level cases involving several generals in the Ministry of Interior and the governor of Kirov region, Nikita Belykh. Thus, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov apparently decided to cut his competitor Bastyrkin down to size (Forbes.ru, July 20). It is fairly clear that shrinking profits due to dwindling cash flows drive the turf wars among Russia’s overgrown law enforcement agencies, but it is unclear to what degree Putin is able to reign them in and retain control (Slon.ru, July 21).
Meanwhile, what he is definitely unable to do is order the economy to start growing again. After Putin expressed surprise over the unusual recent strengthening of the national currency, the ruble immediately resumed losing value; he then had to clarify that this weakening was not part of any plan (RBC, July 22). The Russian government routinely tries to manipulate data in order to create the impression of stabilization, but the depth of recession is hard to camouflage: for instance, construction contracted by 10 percent compared to June 2015 (Moskovsky Komsomoets, July 20). No amount of upbeat talk can change the fact that real incomes have been falling for 20 months in a row (Newsru.com, July 20). Putin demands that the “shadow economy” be reduced; but in fact, up to 30 million Russians struggling to make ends meet are currently involved in various semi-legal enterprises (Moscow Echo, July 19). Opinion polls show mixed views on whether a new zastoi (stagnation) has arrived in Russia, but 64 percent of respondents perceive a lack of stability (Vedomosti, July 22).
The risk of stepping on the interests of corrupt business is not the only factor standing in the way of implementing economic reforms in Russia. Another roadblock is the absence of reliable information, since fraud is organic to the system of control cultivated by Putin. Particularly illustrative of this fact has been the doping scandal in Russia. Although the whole Russian Olympic team narrowly avoided a blanket ban, the country’s track-and-field athletes will not be allowed to compete at the Rio Games this summer (Moscow Echo, July 19). The machine of state propaganda instantly shifted into top gear, seeking to obfuscate this political disaster with the usual set of stories about Western conspiracies and the West’s envy of Russia’s regained strength and glory (Rosbalt.ru, July 22). Putin, however, opted for a conciliatory stance and initiated an “independent” anti-doping commission that would closely cooperate with the International Olympic Committee (Kommersant, July 22). Nevertheless, it is clearly too late to seek a compromise because the World Anti-Doping Agency demands action not against a few athletes but against the Russian sports bureaucracy as a whole, which is a part and parcel of the corrupt state system driving Russia into deeper international isolation (Ezhednevny Zhurnal, July 22).
The exposure of the Russian state’s role in managing doping for its athletes increases the reluctance of many international partners to do any kind of business with Russia. Thus, even in acute crises like Syria, fruitful international cooperation with Moscow becomes difficult to establish. The Russian Ministry of Defense has denied responsibility for delivering a strike on a Syrian opposition base that was used by United States Special Forces; at the same time, Moscow has accused Washington of reluctance to engage in practical coordination (RBC, July 23). The Russian Air Force relies increasingly on “carpet bombing” by long-range Tu-22M3 bombers because close air support from the Hmeimym base in Latakia involves a high risk of losses from enemy fire and accidents (Gazeta.ru, July 21). Nonetheless, casualties still continue to rise: last week, a road bomb claimed the life of another Russian soldier (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, July 22).
Putin appears to have no plan for extricating the Russian military from the Syrian trap, and he seemingly cannot accept the plain fact that any international cooperation in managing this humanitarian catastrophe is based on the premise of dismantling the Bashar al-Assad regime. He cannot know what future setback may suddenly turn Russian public opinion against the heretofore popular Syrian intervention. However, he evidently understands that his great triumph of organizing—and winning—the “best ever” Olympic games in Sochi is being spoiled by the current doping scandal. He thus suspects that this lasting damage to his popularity was deliberately inflicted. He may also believe that the only way to compensate for this damage is to score another spectacular victory, for which the Russian military is the only available instrument. Yet, the weakening economy almost certainly cannot support another experiment in power projection, particularly since each of the previous enterprises (Syria and eastern Ukraine) has produced a financial “black hole” that consumes resources but generates no profits. The Kremlin appears firmly in control of the forthcoming parliamentary elections, but the “managed democratic” process will inevitably ensure that the next State Duma will also be part of the problem of the degradation of the Russian state. Putin clings to the privilege of presiding over this process but has no control over its speed.
The Democratic Party seems to have found its own conspiracy to wield against its opponents, namely that Trump is an agent of the Russian Federation.
Unfortunately, the supporting evidence consists of business trips and failed deals from years ago (e.g. 2008), as well as soundbites ("disproportionate") and conjecture (forcing NATO members to commit to the 2% target is equated with American withdrawal). Moreover, people tend to forget Obama's desire for a "reset" with Russia and the fact that Russia was a "partner" up until invading Ukraine in March 2014.
Hillary Clinton is a known hawk and has a predilection for "humanitarian intervention", selling and supporting an Anglo-French adventure in Libya that only resulted in an ongoing civil war and the infiltration of Daesh. Would Putin support anyone but Hillary? Absolutely.
Anyone who subscribes to this is no different than those arguing:
Obama is a secret Muslim in league with Iran
George W. Bush was beholden to the Saudi royal family
Bill Clinton was an agent of China for encouraging its membership in the WTO
OUTLAW 09
07-26-2016, 08:00 PM
JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION - Pavel K. Baev (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45672&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=e6cace807103d5c35328ab332ca3fd8f#.V5ezTrsrKU k)
Azor.... a solid article especially in the light that he is moving against a number of his former supporting oligarch friends.....many who supported him up to now are out in the cold....
davidbfpo
07-26-2016, 08:13 PM
I have moved a number of posts from the Ukraine at War thread to better places: the Russian cyber & infowar and Russian politics threads.
Just whether a new thread is needed for the apparent Russian impact on the forthcoming US elections is a moot point.
OUTLAW 09
07-26-2016, 08:13 PM
The Democratic Party seems to have found its own conspiracy to wield against its opponents, namely that Trump is an agent of the Russian Federation.
Unfortunately, the supporting evidence consists of business trips and failed deals from years ago (e.g. 2008), as well as soundbites ("disproportionate") and conjecture (forcing NATO members to commit to the 2% target is equated with American withdrawal). Moreover, people tend to forget Obama's desire for a "reset" with Russia and the fact that Russia was a "partner" up until invading Ukraine in March 2014.
Hillary Clinton is a known hawk and has a predilection for "humanitarian intervention", selling and supporting an Anglo-French adventure in Libya that only resulted in an ongoing civil war and the infiltration of Daesh. Would Putin support anyone but Hillary? Absolutely.
Anyone who subscribes to this is no different than those arguing:
Obama is a secret Muslim in league with Iran
George W. Bush was beholden to the Saudi royal family
Bill Clinton was an agent of China for encouraging its membership in the WTO
Pay attention to the Russian oligarch cash flow into his businesses and the Ukraine Manafort connection....there is more coming out on both...just wait...social media leads the way especially the Ukrainian
His business debt has doubled in just one year to 630M......and all US banks have black listed his companies and himself as well....
And the hacking tracks are getting firmer and heavier and points directly at Russia.....
OUTLAW 09
02-25-2017, 10:55 AM
Azor....reference the current Russian economy where we differ on the actual conditions....
In Novosibirsk, Russia, ~1,000 joined a protest against social benefits cuts & demanded governor resignation:
http://news.ngs.ru/more/50289091/
Protests are becoming far more frequent and larger and louder....Putin is in the middle of a guns or butter dilemma .....
OUTLAW 09
03-09-2017, 09:20 AM
Azor..goes to what I have been repeatedly saying here.....collapse is now in slow motion and cannot be stopped regardless of what Putin does and or does not do...
Russia's brittle power, how overlooked domestic issues could come back to haunt Putin’s regime.
http://wapo.st/2nh7qPF
The key is the ever increasing number of actual demonstrations being carried out almost daily throughout Russia over every thinkable reason....something totally new...some numbering in the low thousands some only one person....
Azor..goes to what I have been repeatedly saying here.....collapse is now in slow motion and cannot be stopped regardless of what Putin does and or does not do...
Russia's brittle power, how overlooked domestic issues could come back to haunt Putin’s regime.
http://wapo.st/2nh7qPF
The key is the ever increasing number of actual demonstrations being carried out almost daily throughout Russia over every thinkable reason....something totally new...some numbering in the low thousands some only one person....
I wouldn't take Joss Meakins too seriously. He's a babe (literally, at 22-years old) in the woods as far as Russia is concerned. This is the same Washington Post that shrilly decried how Russia had inserted an agent or "Siberian Candidate" into the White House and was about to smash both the EU and NATO...
Reading WaPo for political insight is like reading the NYT for investment advice.
The key is the ever increasing number of actual demonstrations being carried out almost daily throughout Russia over every thinkable reason....something totally new...some numbering in the low thousands some only one person...
This is more interesting to me. Do you have statistics or a heat map of these developments?
I would also bear in mind the following:
It is terribly difficult to predict revolutions and analyses tend to rely on scant data
Successful revolutions (e.g. Romania and Poland in 1989, Russia in 1991) require a certain measure of key insider support and therefore can be construed as a combination of palace coup d'etat and popular revolution. Therefore, are public protests as important as developments at the "power ministries"?
What if Russia descends into the anarchy predicted in the early 1990s i.e. Eurasian warlords running amok with ICBMs (e.g. The Peacemaker, Air Force One, Crimson Tide, The Saint, Goldeneye, etc.)?
OUTLAW 09
03-09-2017, 07:39 PM
I wouldn't take Joss Meakins too seriously. He's a babe (literally, at 22-years old) in the woods as far as Russia is concerned. This is the same Washington Post that shrilly decried how Russia had inserted an agent or "Siberian Candidate" into the White House and was about to smash both the EU and NATO...
Reading WaPo for political insight is like reading the NYT for investment advice.
This is more interesting to me. Do you have statistics or a heat map of these developments?
I would also bear in mind the following:
It is terribly difficult to predict revolutions and analyses tend to rely on scant data
Successful revolutions (e.g. Romania and Poland in 1989, Russia in 1991) require a certain measure of key insider support and therefore can be construed as a combination of palace coup d'etat and popular revolution. Therefore, are public protests as important as developments at the "power ministries"?
What if Russia descends into the anarchy predicted in the early 1990s i.e. Eurasian warlords running amok with ICBMs (e.g. The Peacemaker, Air Force One, Crimson Tide, The Saint, Goldeneye, etc.)?
Azor...the demos have been interesting me as well...will start tracking and posting each as they are reported....especially the areas where they occur....
OUTLAW 09
03-11-2017, 10:46 AM
Azor....
In Russia today there are local protests against oil pipeline construction on native lands. But you'll never hear about it on Russia Today.
Did not identify where....
OUTLAW 09
03-12-2017, 12:37 PM
This story is quite unbelievable: Russian woman jailed over SMS during 2008 Rus-Georgia war, released from prison
http://www.rferl.org/a/russia-sevastidi-released-text-georgian-war-jailed/28364651.html#
8 years for a single SMS.....
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 07:05 AM
Azor....remember my mentioning of Russian demonstrations are climbing....
Dozens of protests around Russia today against corruption with focus on Medvedev. Arrests began already in Vladivostok
Valdivostok had several thousand by 10am Moscow time this morning....
Dozens of small ones sprang up over Saturday around the same topic...all over Russia and were not stopped by the police...
Protest v. corruption in Kemerovo. Activists are using hashtag #ДимонОтветит ref to nickname of Dmitry Medvedev "Dimon", demanding answers
Live broadcast (in Russian) of protest rallies around Russia today against corruption, focus on Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
Protest being led by @navalny
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 11:48 AM
"A few thousand people in Petersburg" protesting, a Ekho Moskvy journalist reports.
But the truth is in Putin's actions, his fear. Thousands of riot police & military vehicles in streets for every protest, large or small.
At another protest....Novosibirsk
People are not afraid anymore.
In Moscow....
Moscow protest is at no fixed place, all the way along two-mile street. Lots of people walking peacefully by. (Obv some not protest linked)
10,000 Russian protesters here.
Also, Interfax seemingly the only russian press agency to report on the protests. RIA quiet, nothing on Yandex Novosti.
Shaun Walker
✔
@shaunwalker7
Sudden movement of police in side street to grab random people.. including colleague @ASLuhn scooped up from under my nose
ASLuhn reports alot on Ukraine
Pretty messy here. Clashes with riot police as people try to stop a bus with detained driving off
If authorities decide to take the same line as they did in 2012 Bolotnaya protests, some of those people are going to end with prison terms
Another Russian opposition leader, the more nationalist Vyacheslav Maltsev, arrives with supporters
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 11:56 AM
"A few thousand people in Petersburg" protesting, a Ekho Moskvy journalist reports.
But the truth is in Putin's actions, his fear. Thousands of riot police & military vehicles in streets for every protest, large or small.
At another protest....Novosibirsk
People are not afraid anymore.
In Moscow....
Moscow protest is at no fixed place, all the way along two-mile street. Lots of people walking peacefully by. (Obv some not protest linked)
10,000 Russian protesters here.
Also, Interfax seemingly the only russian press agency to report on the protests. RIA quiet, nothing on Yandex Novosti.
Shaun Walker
✔
@shaunwalker7
Sudden movement of police in side street to grab random people.. including colleague @ASLuhn scooped up from under my nose
ASLuhn reports alot on Ukraine
Pretty messy here. Clashes with riot police as people try to stop a bus with detained driving off
If authorities decide to take the same line as they did in 2012 Bolotnaya protests, some of those people are going to end with prison terms
Another Russian opposition leader, the more nationalist Vyacheslav Maltsev, arrives with supporters
Russians are critical about everything in Russia—economy, corruption, foreign wars. But very hard to blame the one man in total control.
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 12:06 PM
Russian website monitoring police detentions at protests @OvdInfo is down due to a reported DDoS attack.
https://meduza.io/news/2017/03/26/sayt-monitoringa-zaderzhaniy-perestal-rabotat-iz-za-ddos-ataki#
DDoS attack is coming from inside Russia not outside....
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 04:01 PM
Follow @ASLuhn who tweets live while being detained by #Putin's security apparatus in Moscow.
Russian police arrested aggressively over more than 700
How many #Putin regime police men does it take to arrest one brave Russian woman?
Arrests getting more and more violent on the edges of now-cleared Pushkin Square:
At Moscow’s Pushkin Square, riot police targeting individual protesters, dragging them off, sometimes beating others around with truncheons.
I salute all brave Russians who are in the streets today, protesting a regime that is nationalistic and corrupt, the opposite of patriotic.
In Russia if you can't find a taxi you can just shout 'DEMOCRACY' & the police will carry you the rest of your trip
#ДимонОтветит
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 04:10 PM
The Kremlin regime detained opposition leader Alexei @navalny during peaceful anti-corruption protests in Moscow.
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 04:25 PM
156 people arrested at anti-corruption protests in Makhachala today.
Makhachkala! Dagestan!
Putin got 92.8% there in 2012!
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 04:32 PM
The dynamics of state repression are endlessly fascinating to me. Incredible watching Putin calibrate how hard he can step on Navalny
Boy no older than 12-13 years being arrested at @navalny anti-corruption protest in Moscow
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 04:33 PM
Eager to see what the Trump administration's State Department says about an American journalist being arrested in Russia
A lot of journalists arrested in Russia right now. Big protests. This story is big and might be on the precipice of huge
All staff at Alexey @Navalny's Anti-#Corruption Foundation arrested, charged w/ "extremism"
http://newsru.com/russia/26mar2017/282fbk.html#
Staff at Navalny's office detained for streaming the protests live online without permission. Now that's a new one.....
Russia AND Belarus are home to large protests & a police crackdown this weekend. Soviet Spring? I'm not so sure, but it feels like a start
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 04:56 PM
Protests in Moscow nothing new. The fact that crowds gathered in dozens of smaller Russian cities will be far more alarming for the Kremlin
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 04:59 PM
Crowd chanting "Russia without Putin!" & "We are the power here!". Police telling crowd they are disturbing public order & breaking the law
Echo Moskvy says 25K people have protested against corruption across the country, before Navalny's action reached Moscow and St Petersburg
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 05:08 PM
Police arrest kid with sign on his bicycle "sell the dachas, fix the roads" at Moscow anti-corruption protest
"The rally wasn't sanctioned" police officer tells us. "Why didn't you go to the dacha and have a barbecue like normal people"
OUTLAW 09
03-26-2017, 05:15 PM
Ekho estimates 60,000 people protested in 82 cities across Russia. Pretty significant numbers/spread, especially given threat of arrest.
OUTLAW 09
03-27-2017, 10:25 AM
Kremlin says all teens at the anti-corruption protests across Russia were "paid protesters." Same tired old lines. Who by? Hillary??
BUT WAIT..it was the CIA and Ukraine working together or wait....Trump himself....
The main news from Sunday's protest is the political debut of teenagers who only know Putin's rule
https://republic.ru/posts/81166
Actually this is a major development and confirms what I hear from those Russians with German Residence Permits in Berlin that are in their late 20s early 30s...."they ain't going back".....is an understatement....
Mixed Kremlin mssgs on protests from Peskov: "provocation," kids bribed, "respects" opinion, "sober" about the scale.
Kremlin spox Peskov: We don't tell TV what to report. There is an abundance of free information out there...
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/555514
OUTLAW 09
03-27-2017, 10:33 AM
HeraldScotland @heraldscotland
Scots shell companies used to launder £4 billion out of Russia
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15183346.Scots_shell_companies_used_to_launder___4 _billion_out_of_Russia/#
OUTLAW 09
03-27-2017, 10:36 AM
In court following protests, @navalny tells @washingtonpost that rallies may bolster his shot at a presidential run:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/kremlin-dismisses-vast-russia-protests-as-aprovocation-by-navalny/2017/03/27/84ea1faa-12c6-11e7-924b-58851f3a675d_story.html?utm_term=.5e77e16e81db#
OUTLAW 09
03-27-2017, 04:38 PM
A new generation of protesters is coming for Putin
http://bv.ms/2n93IXE
OUTLAW 09
03-27-2017, 04:53 PM
Russian @RT_Deutsch is mere propaganda.
Claim: ±11.000 participants
Reality: 60.000
Claim: "some arrests, at least 15"
Reality: 500-1000
OUTLAW 09
03-28-2017, 06:38 AM
Pro-Kremlin newspaper claims many young people attended Sunday's anti-corruption rally "in order to get more likes on their social networks"
OUTLAW 09
03-28-2017, 09:10 AM
Meduza have published excellent interactive map on Russian protests, number arrested. Geographical spread astounding
https://meduza.io/feature/2017/03/27/skolko-lyudey-vyshli-na-ulitsy-26-marta-i-skolko-zaderzhali-karta-protesta#
Russians call up for new rally on April 2nd to demand resignation of Dimon, stop wars in Syria, Ukraine
OUTLAW 09
03-28-2017, 01:29 PM
Near #Makhachkala, #Dagestan, 300 long-haul truck drivers #protest against road toll charge
OUTLAW 09
03-28-2017, 04:20 PM
Two Thirds of Russians Hold Putin Responsible for Corruption
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2017/03/two-thirds-of-russians-hold-putin.html#
The Kremlin realized on Sunday that it may have problems with the next generation of Russians.
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/russias-kids-are-alright-57551#
OUTLAW 09
03-28-2017, 05:11 PM
Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti
#Voronenkov's Murder: #Russia Will Regret Turning to the ‘Dark Side’
My thoughts for @MoscowTimes
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/russia-will-regret-turning-to-the-dark-side-57560#
OUTLAW 09
03-29-2017, 08:04 AM
A new generation of protesters is coming for Putin
http://bv.ms/2n93IXE
"A revolt of schoolkids & students" is how one Russian paper today describes Sunday's protests. "The kindergarten revolution" says another.
Russian film director Alexander Sokurov criticises violent response to protests, says government is afraid to talk to young people.
In leaked classroom video, Russian university lecturer denounces his students as “freaks” for protesting corruption.
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/in-leaked-classroom-video-russian-university-lecturer-calls-his-students-freaks-for-attending-anti-corruption-protest-57559#
Russia is in the midst of a massive "brain drain"...anyone what is well educated or has a solid well trained/experienced blue collar background is desperately trying to get travel visas to EU...WHERE when they arrive they asked immediately for Residence Permits as "they "ain't going back home any time soon"....
OUTLAW 09
03-31-2017, 03:57 AM
"A revolt of schoolkids & students" is how one Russian paper today describes Sunday's protests. "The kindergarten revolution" says another.
Russian film director Alexander Sokurov criticises violent response to protests, says government is afraid to talk to young people.
In leaked classroom video, Russian university lecturer denounces his students as “freaks” for protesting corruption.
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/in-leaked-classroom-video-russian-university-lecturer-calls-his-students-freaks-for-attending-anti-corruption-protest-57559#
Russia is in the midst of a massive "brain drain"...anyone what is well educated or has a solid well trained/experienced blue collar background is desperately trying to get travel visas to EU...WHERE when they arrive they asked immediately for Residence Permits as "they "ain't going back home any time soon"....
Right now the Russian government ...no actually Putin is on a massive info war against their own younger generation .....REMEMBER this is the generation that has largely grown up under him....they has a block have been largely quite but apparently no longer....
The Moscow Times
✔
@MoscowTimes
Russia is strong. Russia is respected. Russia could be brought down by some pimply teens who watched a YouTube video
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/putin-compares-anti-corruption-protests-to-arab-spring-and-euromaidan-57586#
IMPORTANT read for the coming months...as these demos have caught even the attention of US Congress....
mirhond
03-31-2017, 12:08 PM
Does anyone of the few people readind this thread ever noticed that recent anti-corruption protrsts targeted Medvedev, not Putin? Any guesses why is it so?
OUTLAW 09
03-31-2017, 05:12 PM
Does anyone of the few people readind this thread ever noticed that recent anti-corruption protrsts targeted Medvedev, not Putin? Any guesses why is it so?
Medvedev is as corrupt as Putin is...and is a rather easy target......so he is getting fed to the lions to distract from Putin being responsible for the corruption....as he could if he wanted to actually crack down but then the entire government...security services....state owned businesses and generally the entire society is corrupt....
So where does one actually start??
"Lawyers and activists fighting corruption and abuse in Russia have been killed"
https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/03/31/top-human-rights-tweets-week#
OUTLAW 09
03-31-2017, 05:14 PM
The Moscow Times
Verified account
#Faced with more unsanctioned protests this Sunday, Russia is getting back to basics, blocking websites left & right.
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/ahead-of-new-protests-russia-starts-blocking-web-pages-57603#…
Reminds me of the 68s and the slogan "all power to the people"....
OUTLAW 09
03-31-2017, 06:10 PM
VIDEO: Today truck drivers tried to protest in #Dagestan. They were surrounded by OMON, Rosgvardia & army vehicles.
http://rtvi.com/news/28941-v-dagestane-protestuyushchih-dalnoboyshchikov-okruzhila-rosgvardiya#
OUTLAW 09
03-31-2017, 06:16 PM
From yesterday.....
OTD in 1867 the US illegally annexed Alaska from Russia. Our compatriots yearn to return to the Motherland and plan a referendum.
BUT MORE SERIOUSLY
Russia claims Alaska is yet another place where Russian speakers are being abused.Little green men are on their way?
Russian media keeps fixating on the theme of natives & Russian speakers allegedly mistreated by the U.S. in Alaska.
OUTLAW 09
03-31-2017, 06:26 PM
Does anyone of the few people readind this thread ever noticed that recent anti-corruption protrsts targeted Medvedev, not Putin? Any guesses why is it so?
Two Thirds of Russians Hold Putin Responsible for Corruption
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...ld-putin.html#
The Kremlin realized on Sunday that it may have problems with the next generation of Russians.
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/...alright-57551#
OUTLAW 09
04-01-2017, 10:03 AM
Solid article but sorry in Russian....
Brilliant Lilia Shevtsova grasps how "Putin generation" rebelled against Putin's regime in Russia's Ides of March
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/shevtsova/1953840-echo/#
OUTLAW 09
04-01-2017, 10:19 AM
Arguably the video of the day: a violinist who took part in Sunday's protests is detained during rehearsals
https://tvrain.ru/teleshow/videooftheday/skripacha_zaderzhali-431287/?utm_source=twi&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=teleshow-videooftheday&utm_term=431287#
Rather nice how other musicians tell the policeman: we don't have that many violinists. why do you have to take him away?
For those that do not speak Russian ...if at first a pop up screen comes up click on the bottom left small bar in the pop up window....
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