View Full Version : Kenya (catch all)
Rex Brynen
01-07-2008, 04:03 AM
NAKURU, Kenya — Kenya’s privileged tribe is on the run (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/world/africa/07kenya.html?hp).
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
New York Times
January 7, 2008
Over the past few days, tens of thousands of Kikuyus, the tribe of Kenya’s president, have packed into heavily guarded buses to flee the western part of the country because of ethnic violence. On Sunday, endless convoys of buses — some with their windshields smashed by rocks — crawled across a landscape of scorched homes and empty farms.
It is nothing short of a mass exodus. The tribe that has dominated business and politics in Kenya since independence in 1963 is now being chased off its land by machete-wielding mobs made up of members of other tribes furious about the Dec. 27 election, which Kenya’s president, Mwai Kibaki, won under dubious circumstances. In some places, Kikuyus have been hunted down with bows and arrows.
...
The election — and the unresolved battle about who won — has ignited old tensions in Kenya, which in a week and a half has gone from being one of Africa’s most promising countries to another equatorial trouble zone.
This an email I received from a Kenyan friend of mine:
"Dear Carl,
>> Greetings.Your perception about kenya was right.We had always embraced peace untill after the elections were rigged.
>> In the past 6 days i have seen what i failed to see in Congo.
>> I have witnessed people being hacked to death.Tribes turning against other tribes.
>> I have witnessed mothers carrying their babies on thier backs being shot in cold blood.
>> The GSU(general service unit) a faction of Kenya police has been shooting youngmen and ladies unselectively.
>> The scenes that i have seen in the Kisumu provincial Hospital Morgue are indeed ugly and disturbing.The akwardly pilled dead bodies,the gunshot wounds in them and the stinking blood that had oozed from their bodies onto the morgues floor are indeed sad memories.
>> I saw much more that i can not be able to expalin in email.
>> The shopping malls too have not been spared,gas stations have been burned down,pharmacies and all buildings belonging to particular tribes are no more.
>> The effects of clinging to power by barbaric means are indeed costing the african people.This act is robbing the africans thier democratic rights.its maiming their brothers and sisters.Their sons and fathers are being killed for defending their rights.
>> Indeed poor governance in african countries is root cause of evil.
>> Best Regards,"
Perhaps this is bigger than the newspapers are letting on.
Perhaps this is bigger than the newspapers are letting on.
There's a decent blog at Allafrica (http://allafrica.com/stories/200801030654.html) from locals and expats. Adds that typical missing element from news reports.
Like many Kenyans I watched with disbelief as my country slide into violence in the past week. One thing that shocked everyone was the speed at which things escalated.
If you had told anyone one week ago as they stood in those long lines to vote that just seven days later the country would reeling from being plunged into violence, supermarkets would be forced to shut and there would be long queues for basics such as bread...
...that a church with mainly women and children would be burnt to the ground killing around 30, most people would have thought you were mad.
So what are people doing? One important thing to repeat is that no one expected this and therefore, understandably, no one had a contingency plan in place for the country going up in flames. However, once the shock subsided, Kenyans swung into action.
However, there was one big problem, communication. The severe lack of mobile phone airtime vouchers meant that information could not flow up from the ground. Many of us in Nairobi and other urban areas were running around looking for airtime vouchers which we can send directly to another mobile phone enabling them to make calls and send text. Another problem was that as these CBOs are, as the name suggests, embedded in their community, many of them were caught up in the violence and were displaced themselves.
Jedburgh
01-09-2008, 02:01 PM
CSIS, 8 Jan 08: Kenya in Crisis (http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/080108_kenya_crisis.pdf)
.....The way out of the crisis will ultimately depend on Kenya’s political class recognizing what civil society and the diplomatic community has made clear—that Kenya is indeed at the proverbial fork in the road. One fork leads to continued chaos and the loss of much of what the country has gained since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1992, and especially since the end of the Moi regime in 2002. The other fork leads to the consolidation of democracy, renewed economic development, and the continued emergence of Kenya as arguably the most significant country in Africa after South Africa and possibly Nigeria. As the anchor state of the region of greater Eastern Africa, Kenya matters. A stable and prosperous Kenya raises the prospects for peace and development in Uganda, Rwanda, Eastern Congo, and southern Sudan. Kenyans are being tested to the limit by the current crisis, yet if a deal can be reached, including with minimal constitutional reforms, Kenyans may in 10 years look back on the events of the first week of January 2008 as the time when their country turned the corner and became an example for the rest of Africa.
Barnsley
01-22-2008, 09:14 AM
I have to disagree with the basic assertion that the crisis in Kenya is simply the result of tribalism and corrupt politics. They are key factors and precipitated the current social unrest. However, there are far more fundamental and intractable issues at play and we over-simplify the debate at our peril.
I have read quite a few pieces on the crisis in the international media, particularly the NYT and WP. I have found them all wanting.
I suggest a visit to Richard Dowden at the Royal African Society's website, http://www.royalafricansociety.org/
But I have been most impressed by an excellent Op-Ed piece in 08 Jan The Nation, a Kenyan daily newspaper. It is at http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=25&newsid=114132
Like the author of the op-ed piece, Macharia Gaitho, I am not surprised at the crisis in Kenya, it's been a long time coming, but the factors have been in place for many years. What we are witnessing is a concatenation of events, most beyond the control of Kibaki, Odinga or any current leader. If anyone is interested to know on what authority I speak and to read my argument in its entirety, it is laid out at my overly-pretentious and painfully wordy blogsite Mars and Aesculapius, Kleptocracy in Crisis (http://adrianafrica.blogspot.com/2008/01/kleptocracy-in-crisis.html).
I am happy to defend my position with anyone who reads this and takes issue with all or part.
Hey Barnsley,
I have to disagree with the basic assertion that the crisis in Kenya is simply the result of tribalism and corrupt politics. They are key factors and precipitated the current social unrest...
...I am not surprised at the crisis in Kenya, it's been a long time coming, but the factors have been in place for many years. What we are witnessing is a concatenation of events, most beyond the control of Kibaki, Odinga or any current leader.
Welcome to the SWC ! Thanks for the links and your versions. They will lend to broader discussions in the Africa thread.
If anyone is interested to know on what authority I speak and to read my argument in its entirety, it is laid out at my overly-pretentious and painfully wordy blogsite Mars and Aesculapius Kleptocracy in Crisis[/URL].
Well..That's indeed a bold first post :wry:
Taking a quick gander at your User Profile certainly leaves a lot in question. I'd recommend going here (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=1441&page=23) and introducing yourself versus asking Council Members to visit your blog. Perhaps once we've been sufficiently smothered in discussion, we'll gain an appreciation for your advice and experience.
Regards, Stan
Barnsley
01-22-2008, 02:52 PM
Well done Stan!
I take your point
you may have gathered
that I am pretty inexperienced in the blogosphere
but am keen to learn
Its 6pm here in Lira northern uganda
red hot and time for me to cook dinner
I will get around to
elaborating on my Kenya argument later
I gather its freezing in the US
Gosh! I miss it!!
bob
Well done Stan!
I take your point you may have gathered that I am pretty inexperienced in the blogosphere but am keen to learn Its 6pm here in Lira northern uganda red hot and time for me to cook dinner I will get around to elaborating on my Kenya argument later I gather its freezing in the US Gosh! I miss it!!
bob
Bob,
All I asked you to do was respect the members herein and provide an otherwise simple introduction. I did not read your blog, but did scan your links.
I spent more than a decade working in Sub-Sahara (7 countries). BTW, I live in Estonia (it says so right under my picture) and it's 1843 and fairly colder than Uganda :eek:
As time permits you, please introduce yourself (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=1441&page=23).
Regards, Stan
Vernacular music has also been used to raise ethnic tensions.
Nairobi: (http://allafrica.com/stories/200801220692.html)Inflammatory statements and songs broadcast on vernacular radio stations and at party rallies, text messages, emails, posters and leaflets have all contributed to post-electoral violence in Kenya, according to analysts.
While the mainstream media, both English and Swahili, have been praised for their even-handedness, vernacular radio broadcasts have been of particular concern, given the role of Kigali's Radio-Télévision Libre des Mille Collines in inciting people to slaughter their neighbours in the Rwandan genocide of 1994.
Handa heard Kalenjin callers on Kass FM making negative comments about other ethnic groups, who they call "settlers", in their traditional homeland, Rift Valley Province.
"You hear cases of 'Let's reclaim our land. Let's reclaim our birthright'. Let's claim our land means you want to evict people [other ethnic communities] from the place," said Handa.
...references to the need for "people of the milk" to "cut grass" and complaints that the mongoose has come and "stolen our chicken" The Kalenjin call themselves people of the milk because they are pastoralists by tradition and the mongoose is a reference to Kikuyus who have bought land in Rift Valley...
a caller emphasised the need to "get rid of weeds", which could be interpreted as a reference to non-Kalenjin ethnic groups.
...two Kikuyu stations, Kameme and Inooro, played songs "talking very badly about beasts from the west", a veiled reference to opposition leader Raila Odinga and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) colleagues, who come from western Kenya, said Handa. Radio Lake Victoria played a Luo-language song by DO Misiani, which referred to "the leadership of baboons".
Beelzebubalicious
01-23-2008, 07:54 AM
Jedburgh,
Thanks for the explanation. Can you please also edit my posts to make me sound a bit more intelligent? I'd like to be a bit more Kissingeresque, but I'm afraid I'm a bit more like Muskie.
In an attempt to get the thread back on topic, I would like to ask all of you what you do if you could design a project or intervention to address the conflict in Kenya. Where would you start? Reconciliation? Root causes of poverty? Political reform?
In an attempt to get the thread back on topic, I would like to ask all of you what you do if you could design a project or intervention to address the conflict in Kenya. Where would you start? Reconciliation? Root causes of poverty? Political reform?
There's an interesting short publication by Anne Applebaum at the American Enterprise Institute (http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.27394,filter.all/pub_detail.asp) regarding Kenya's problem and a potential fix. I don't agree with 'mere' bad politics being the sole problem while ignoring the myriad of tribal conflicts in the region over far less, and having watched aid programs with 'strings attached' makes me wonder what that would accomplish, if anything.
What was most striking to me about the violence in Kenya in recent weeks was not how much the country resembles Rwanda but, rather, how much it resembles, say, Ukraine in 2004 or South Korea in the 1980s. Perhaps the real story here is not, as one headline had it, about "The Demons That Still Haunt Africa (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1702349,00.html)" but about how Africa is no different from anywhere else.
As any student of revolution knows, popular uprisings generally take place not in the poorest countries but in those that have recently grown richer.
Thus there is nothing mysterious about the anger or the unrest, nothing that requires more Live Aid concerts or global outpourings of emotion, nothing especially "African" about Kenya's problems at all. Kenya needs a cleaner, more democratic, more rule-abiding government; it needs to eliminate the licenses and regulations that create opportunities for bribery; it needs to apply the law equally to all citizens.
The West can help Kenya change these things by encouraging these values through the nature of the aid it gives and the strings attached (http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=2&newsid=115054) to that aid.
Ultimately, though, Kenya's political elite will have to decide what kind of country they want their children to live in. Yes, there are cultural factors, and, yes, Kenya is unique, but in the end politics, not culture, lies at the heart of the country's current problems.
Beelzebubalicious
01-23-2008, 12:15 PM
Stan,
Interesting connection between Kenya and Ukraine in 2004. The author writes "how Africa is no different than anywhere else". I understand her point, that on some surface levels, there are similarities (economic growth, corrupt government, election fraud, popular uprising). However, the Ukrainian revolution didn't break out into widespread violence. No question, the povery level and desperation is not comparable. And culturally and historically, there aren't too many similarities that I can point to.
Other than saying that people of both countries are frustrated w/corrupt and inefficient governments (politicians), there isn't a lot else that's very similar.
What's your perspective, having spent significant chunks of time in both Eastern Europe/NIS and Africa?
Stan,
Interesting connection between Kenya and Ukraine in 2004. The author writes "how Africa is no different than anywhere else". I understand her point, that on some surface levels, there are similarities (economic growth, corrupt government, election fraud, popular uprising). However, the Ukrainian revolution didn't break out into widespread violence. No question, the povery level and desperation is not comparable. And culturally and historically, there aren't too many similarities that I can point to.
Other than saying that people of both countries are frustrated w/corrupt and inefficient governments (politicians), there isn't a lot else that's very similar.
What's your perspective, having spent significant chunks of time in both Eastern Europe/NIS and Africa?
Eric,
I’ll start by saying I like Anne’s “thinking out of the box” style and appreciate she’s been around Eastern Europe a long time as an investigative journalist. I don’t agree with her current train of thought, but decided to post it because of your unique position with USAID and physical location, and my background in Sub-Sahara.
I agree, the similarities are shallow; social and political upheaval in Africa is little more than a daily occurrence. Estonia’s revolution was in fact a ‘singing revolution’ with no violence or political agenda whatsoever. Much like The Ukraine, Estonians just wanted the Soviets out and this has little to do with ‘on the edge of your seat’ tribal conflict and/or differences.
There’s reference made to the violent uprising being seemingly preplanned (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/21/world/africa/21kenya.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin)because it “seemed as spontaneous as it was shocking, with machete-wielding mobs hacking people to death and burning women and children alive in a country that was celebrated as one of Africa’s most stable.” I think had the author been in Goma in 1994 for 40 days, she’d look at the 560 deaths as a mere drop in the bucket and would also better appreciate just how fast tribal related violence ‘fires up’.
I was interested in your view regarding this ‘carrot’ with strings attached approach. It has never worked with any great success when greed and corruption come into play. Why would it then work so much better in Kenya ?
Beelzebubalicious
01-24-2008, 01:22 PM
Stan,
The article she refers to is about civil society organizations calling for donors to withhold aid until Kenya makes certain reforms. That's more like stick and carrot. Interestingly, the Catholic church opposed this, saying that reconciliation and healing will take time and the donors shouldn't given conditions to the government.
The problem with withholding aid is that aid becomes not a carrot (strings or not), but a weapon. for that, there are economic sanctions and other measures. Reminds me of the situation in Palestinian Territories after Hamas won the election. It was a legitimate election by the reports I read. Holding back aid might have hurt Hamas, but it probably hurt the Palestinian people more.
Anyway, getting back to the carrot with strings. The carrot always has strings. You never get something for nothing, eh. I think aid agencies would like the carrot to be tied to a string which is tied to a stick which is leading the donkey forward. You give aid and assistance with the understanding that the government will participate, that it will make certain changes, that it will move forward.
As for greed and corruption, donor money is hard to get. There are way too many easier ways to make money. But, I think many governments have become quite adept at speaking the speak and attracting donor money, then foot-dragging, confusing things, using rhetoric in place of action, etc. Or use donor money to fund government services or programs and then divert that money to other purposes (Ahem, Ethiopia). Lastly, i would also say donors are often hesitant to face corruption head on, so you see a lot of anti-corruption projects focused on civil society monitoring and media (Ahem, Millenium Challenge Corporation, or MCC).
Okay, I've probably said way too much....and now everybody knows my secret identity (batman is bruce wayne...or perhaps more appropriately, Robin is...well, Robin, I guess. Poor kid.)
Eric
Eric,
That's the way I understood the article, but it seems that attempts to pressure the African government by "starving out the population" would result in even further violent conditions -- as the pres gnaws on his tenderloin with sauce béarnaise watching televised reports of starving people :wry:
Regarding greed and corruption, I was thinking like a Zairian for a second: With the arrival of goods at the airport. There's obviously 'customs duties' and damaged crates and otherwise (ahem) bureaucratic procedures to follow. Obviously, Kenya's elite are not all that concerned about transparency, and could easily blame missing donations on the current situation - Basically what Zaire did way back when.
Regards, Stan
PS. I stopped watchin' Batman when they replace the Joker, Jack Nicholson :mad:
Tom Odom
02-01-2008, 03:00 PM
Kenya and Kofi Annan (http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080201/EDITORIAL/181984046/1013)
It is disheartening to hear that formal talks between Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga were suspended on Thursday following the violent death of opposition lawmaker David Too. The talks began Wednesday and were aimed at reconciliation following tumultuous elections in December. From the outset, however, we have been skeptical of the mediation process, as it falls under the tutelage of Kofi Annan, a former secretary-general of the United Nations whose disastrous leadership as head of United Nations peacekeeping operations (where he failed to take any action to prevent the 1994 Rwandan genocide) gives reason for pause.
Mr. Annan has said he believes the immediate political crisis could be solved "within a week," but this is now highly unlikely, considering that neither side offered significant compromises before talks began. Moreover, Mr. Too's death follows Tuesday's fatal shooting of Mugabe Were, another member of parliament belonging to Mr. Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Since the results of the Dec. 27 election were announced, supporters of ODM have formed roving bands that are attacking members of the Kikuyu, Mr. Kibaki's ethnic group. Nearly 900 people have been killed and more than 250,000 have been displaced following a vote that international observers said lacked transparency. On Dec. 30, Mr. Kibaki was sworn into his second term less than an hour after the surprising election results were made public. Early tallies had suggested Mr. Odinga would win, but after a series of apparent voting irregularities, Mr. Kibaki won by 200,000 votes.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected in Nairobi today to assist the Panel of Eminent African Persons under Mr. Annan. Ghana President John Kufuor, chairman of the African Union, failed to broker a peace agreement in January[/QUOTE]
What is going on in Kenya offers a larger lesson for those who tribalism as a substitute for states rights in a setting like Iraq. Kenya's splits are more complex but are nonetheless purely ethnic versus the tribal, ethnic, and religious schisms we deal with in Iraq.
Ethnic/political driven corruption destroyed the Congo under Mobutu, who with western backing was able to keep a lid on things until the end of the Cold War when that western backing fragmented. Kenya has over the past 4 decades followed a similar but less apparent glide path with political corruption fueled by ethnic divisions. Kenya's geostrategic role has made it an important partner to the US and the West in general; like the Congo/Zaire that relationship has helped offset these problems but they have been there since Kenyatta's days.
Final thought is you have to be very careful to not dismiss such conflicts as just an another ethnic blood bath in Africa because in such a tribally-based society, ethnicity is the basis for politics. Cultural, ethnic, and racial differences are often political in their effect simply because they define who has power and who does not. Such differences cannot be erased by decree but they can be mitigated over time through communication and education. However when large scale eruptions such as this one occur, the effects are long lasting, self-sustaining, and unfortunately reinforcing.
Best
Tom
Tom Odom
02-01-2008, 03:22 PM
At the AU Summit
Kenya vows tougher crackdown (http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0201/p04s01-woaf.html)
Rwandan President Paul Kagame told the Reuters news agency that Kenya's Army might have to take over before things get worse. "I know that it is not fashionable and right for the armies to get involved in such a political situation," he said. "But in situations where institutions have lost control, I wouldn't mind such a solution."
The key question is of course can the Army if put in such a role maintain its balance and not fragment. I am not up on the Kenyan military enough to make that call.
Tom
Rex Brynen
02-01-2008, 03:29 PM
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected in Nairobi today to assist the Panel of Eminent African Persons under Mr. Annan. Ghana President John Kufuor, chairman of the African Union, failed to broker a peace agreement in January
I was just thinking about all this when Tom posted (and this is a short post of my own, since I need to run to teach class).
It remains to be seen whether Ki-moon, Annan, and the AU can move the parties to a political agreement that would deescalate the current situation, but I think this is a clear case where the oft-maligned UN and AU have potential for conflict prevention (or, more accurately, conflict deescalation) that others don't.
The rest of the international community has been publicly supportive, but one hopes that local embassies and HQS can coordinate an effective common front to support the primary mediators. This was done well in support of the peace process in Mozambique in 1992-94, and done poorly--and with tragic consequences--in Angola in 1992 and Rwanda prior to the genocide.
Also, there is some discussion of the Kenya crisis and AFRICOM on Abu Muqawama (https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=5440908667613269425&postID=2856723532002479628).
tequila
02-01-2008, 04:01 PM
From what little I know about the Kenyan military, it is dominated by Kalenjin, Maasai, and other "minority" officers, a holdover from the Moi regime --- that is, those who are primarily in opposition to the Kibaki government. There were occasional rumors during Kibaki's tenure that Kalenjin officers would launch a coup against Kibaki, but this never occurred and thusfar the Army has remained firmly on the side of the government.
Jedburgh
02-22-2008, 02:56 PM
ICG, 21 Feb 08: Kenya in Crisis (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=3327&tid=5316&type=pdf&l=1)
.....The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy. The protracted political crisis has deep roots and could easily lead to renewed extreme violence. More is at stake than the collapse of Kenya itself. Kenya is the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan, a haven for refugees from throughout the region, a regional entrepot, and a key anchor for long-term stabilisation of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. Paralysis of its infrastructure would deprive those countries of access to basic commodities, reduce trade opportunities, hamper foreign investment and see economic growth crippled. The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region. The alternative – a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict – would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond.
Jedburgh
03-17-2008, 01:01 PM
GIGA, Feb 08:
Ethnic Coalitions of Convenience and Commitment: Political Parties and Party Systems in Kenya (http://vg02.met.vgwort.de/na/0fbdb5e5ef41a9cfda4f5bb92f2ac5?l=http://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp68_elischer.pdf)
This paper analyzes the role of ethnicity in shaping the character of Kenya’s political parties and its party system since 1992. Drawing on a constructivist conception of ethnicity, it uses a framework of comparison derived from Donald Horowitz and distinguishes between three party types: the mono-ethnic party, the multi-ethnic alliance type and the multi-ethnic integrative type. It shows that although Kenyan parties have increasingly incorporated diverse communities, they have consistently failed to bridge the country’s dominant ethnic cleavages. Consequently, all of Kenya’s significant parties represent ethnic coalitions of convenience and commitment and, thus, ethnic parties. The paper further states that the country’s post-2007 political environment is a by-product of the omnipresence of this party type.
Complete 28 page paper at the link.
Tom Odom
03-18-2008, 03:12 PM
this is a new HRW report just out that says Kenyan officials olotted much of the post-election violence
Report: Kenyan officials plotted attacks that killed hundreds (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/world/story/30683.html)
NAIROBI, Kenya — A leading human rights group said Monday that Kenyan political and business leaders plotted much of the country's recent ethnic violence, and it urged the new coalition government to bring the organizers to justice.
New York-based Human Rights Watch found evidence that hundreds of people were killed in planned ethnic attacks following the disputed presidential election in December. In many cases, the group said, the attacks were planned and financed by prominent civic leaders, although the group didn't directly implicate any top national politicians.
The full report can be downloaded here (http://hrw.org/reports/2008/kenya0308/)
From the report's summary:
Summary (http://hrw.org/reports/2008/kenya0308/2.htm#_Toc193008561)
The scale and speed of the violence that engulfed Kenya following the controversial presidential election of December 27, 2007 shocked both Kenyans and the world at large. Two months of bloodshed left over 1,000 dead and up to 500,000 internally displaced persons in a country viewed as a bastion of economic and political stability in a volatile region.
The ethnic divisions laid bare in the aftermath of the elections have roots that run much deeper than the presidential poll. No Kenyan government has yet made a good-faith effort to address long simmering grievances over land that have persisted since independence. High-ranking politicians who have been consistently implicated in organizing political violence since the 1990s have never been brought to book and continue to operate with impunity. Widespread failures of governance are at the core of the explosive anger exposed in the wake of the election fraud.
franksforum
12-01-2008, 03:48 PM
This note outlines the main political developments in Kenya in recent years, and briefly surveys available economic and development indicators. This note will not automatically be updated, but to request an update, please contact one of the authors.
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/briefings/snep-04895.pdf
davidbfpo
06-17-2011, 09:47 AM
This AQ attack pre-dates SWC's debut, on a search there was no match for Mombasa, so this Israeli publication maybe useful:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/pdf/gj_ef007.pdf
Publication appears to have followed the death in Somalia of Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, the head of AQ in East Africa; there are various sections, including the investigation into AQ communications and a strategic commentary.
Jedburgh
10-13-2011, 07:31 PM
IPI, 12 Oct 11: Termites at Work: Transnational Organized Crime and State Erosion in Kenya
(http://www.ipinst.org/media/pdf/publications/ipi_epub_kenya_toc.pdf)
The threat posed by organized crime is not confined to serious crimes such as racketeering, the global drug trade, or human trafficking. For many developing countries and fragile states, powerful transnational criminal networks constitute a direct threat to the state itself, not through open confrontation but by penetrating state institutions through bribery and corruption and by subverting or undermining them from within. This paper examines whether Kenya faces such a threat.
Governments that lack the capacity to counter such penetration, or that acquiesce in it, run the risk of becoming criminalized or “captured” states. The research findings do not justify Kenya being labeled a criminalized state, but its foundations are under attack. Determined interventions are required to stem organized criminal networks from further undermining the state.
Six categories of transnational organized crime are examined, pointing to significant increases in criminal activity with pervasive impacts on government institutions in Kenya. Rampant corruption in the police, judiciary, and other state institutions has facilitated criminal networks’ penetration of political institutions.
The paper concludes with recommendations for steps to be taken at the national, regional, and international levels.
Moderator's Note
See Post 6 for an explanation why a new thread, in summary: As much as the civil war in Somalia impacts Kenya, notably the Northern Frontier District, there is a need for a separate thread (ends).
Second grenade attack in Nairobi in as many days, Al Shabab sticking to their word it would seem. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/us-kenya-somalia-newspro-idUSTRE79N5W220111024
davidbfpo
10-26-2011, 10:21 AM
I know the taking of European hostages got attention here for a short time and last week's Kenyan military incursion too. The linked article gives IMHO a wider viewpoint - mainly affecting Kenya - and helps to understand what is going on. It starts with:
..A fractious mix of violence and politics is unsettling the relationship between east African neighbours and putting more pressure on Somalis living in Kenya. The Somali militia group known as al-Shabaab is often viewed as the source of the problem. But the roots of the turmoil go deep in Kenya's own history..
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/daniel-branch/kenya-and-somalia-landscape-of-tension
davidbfpo
11-14-2011, 08:57 PM
I know Kenya has had a close relationship with Israel, which was very clear after the Entebbe Raid and when a few years ago a SAM was fired at an Israeli charter flight, full of tourists from an Indian Ocean resort.
Now there's this single strand reporting, which is almost a gift to Al-Shabab:
Kenya's prime minister is seeking Israel's support in stopping reprisal terror attacks by an al-Qaida-linked militant group Kenyan troops are pursuing in Somalia.... for assistance in building the capacity of the Kenyan police to deal with attacks by al-Shabab militants....but al-Shabab could view Kenya's request as a provocation.
Link:http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kenya-pm-asks-israel-fighting-terrorists-14946631#.TsF-4D0Uqsp
davidbfpo
11-14-2011, 11:05 PM
Aidan Hartley, a Kenyan farmer - near the Somali badlands - and journalist has written a short article on the terrain facing the Kenyan Army incursion, plus supporters:http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/life/7359948/wild-life.thtml
He opens with:
I am proud of Kenya for taking on Muslim extremists in southern Somalia. Rather wisely, the Kenyan military has so far prevented hacks from reaching the field. But for anybody in the outside world who cares, this is not a new battle. Operations against Somalis of varying types of fanaticism have been mounted since the 1960s.
davidbfpo
12-19-2011, 06:52 PM
Aidan Hartley is a white Kenyan farmer, whose farm is in the region near Somalia and a journalist. The linked article is about his struggles to stop rustlers and added here as it gives an impression of what life is like in that area. Human Terrain no less:http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/life/7437833/wild-life.thtml
davidbfpo
12-20-2011, 05:23 PM
As much as the civil war in Somalia impacts Kenya, notably the Northern Frontier District, there is a need for a separate thread.
Link to the non-piracy Somali thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=8468
From which half a dozen posts have been copied across to this thread.
Kenya has it's own problems, which were touched upon in older threads, notably after an election:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=4686
The catalyst for starting this is a BBC report on an IED attack on a police patrol in a Somali refugee camp:
The camp houses about 450,000 people who have fled famine and conflict in Somalia.
The report implies Kenya is aware of the simmering pot the camp is:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16247634
Not to overlook that Kenya is receptive to facilitating the presence of US & UK military, partly for training and taking action in Somalia.
davidbfpo
11-13-2012, 04:27 PM
A short BBC report on:
At least 42 officers were killed when cattle rustlers ambushed police...The attackers used sophisticated weapons such as anti-personnel bombs and rocket-propelled grenades....This is the most deadly attack on the police in Kenya's history.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20294747
davidbfpo
11-20-2012, 12:10 AM
A short ICSR article 'Al-Shabaab: Recruitment and Radicalisation in Kenya':http://icsr.info/2012/11/icsr-insight-al-shabaab-recruitment-and-radicalisation-in-kenya/
Based on our fieldwork with former al-Shabaab members in Kenya, about half of the people we interviewed were motivated by financial rewards. The other half were taken in by the teachings of Ali and other jihadist preachers.
davidbfpo
11-21-2012, 04:01 PM
From a "lurker" the ambush targeted a mix of ordinary police, the para-military General Service Unit and para-military anti-poaching officers.
A BBC follow-on report, a mix of local detail and the wider context:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20392510
This explains a lot:
Traditionally the pastoralist communities in northern Kenya have been armed by the state and left to provide their own security under a "home guard" system.
Elsewhere in Kenya there is violence involving ethnic Somalis:http://news.yahoo.com/more-violence-kenya-somali-tensions-rise-114946229.html;_ylt=AmEaYXiNE2TcNRztwP1vJ7BvaA8F;_ ylu=X3oDMTNlN2c5aTNmBG1pdAMEcGtnAzJlZDBjMWUwLTI4Nj MtMzI1MC1hOGRkLTdlYWZjZWIzMzk2YwRwb3MDOARzZWMDbG5f QWZyaWNhX2dhbAR2ZXIDZWZkM2JmMDAtMzMyZS0xMWUyLWJkZW YtYTRkMjA2NjQwZTFk;_ylv=3
Hard to be optimistic about Kenya, particularly with an election looming and the ease in which violence overtakes the ballot box.
This short comment is enough:
The Somali militant group al-Shabaab is currently losing ferocious battles against Kenyan troops in Southern Somalia - part of an African Union peacekeeping mission. However, they are winning a strategic war back in Kenya; this is the battle for hearts and minds.
This HRW report is not encouraging, certainly no "hearts & minds" approach here:http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/kenya0512webwcover.pdf
omarali50
09-21-2013, 07:45 PM
I posted this on my blog http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/09/21/kenya-mall-attack-targeting-civilians-on-the-basis-of-religion-is-now-ok/
Extended excerpt (basic question):
This can be classified as a "Mumbai style attack"...armed men attack a city, pick out one or more prominent civilian targets and slaughter any random person that they find, but may make an effort to spare Muslims. The target may have symbolic value. e.g. educated Westernized left-liberal observers will not have difficulty recognizing an upscale mall as a temple of capitalism, a bastion of imperialism and neo-colonialism, or a shrine to consumerism..in fact, if i had the time I could probably write certain Pakistani-Western academic's next article about the class dimensions of this lumpen-revolutionary act in my sleep....but i dont think the gunmen will bring that up; ..Bin-Laden and Zawahiri used a few random fragments from that discourse, but its not a central part of their propaganda effort. Their propaganda will be simpler and more direct; you attacked us, now we are attacking you. You may drone us or bomb us, but we WILL strike back and make you suffer. We are not weak. We are not scared. We are mujahideen and we will always be back, until you leave our lands and stop your oppressions against Islam.
So my question is this: Their arguments and actions are horrible, tragic, sad, etc. But are they now so routine that they have become in some sense legitimate? That we accept them as part of the nature of war? after all, when more advanced countries fight each other (or weaker countries) and use aircraft to drop bombs or fire missiles, we sort of take it in our stride. War is bad, but when it does happen (and sometimes it happens), this is just how it is. Will we think about Mumbai-style attacks the same way now?
If your first thought is "what a strange question", then you have already accepted what used to be almost unthinkable. We have had bombs going off in cities for over a century. But we have NOT had this for a century. Is it now routine? or is there still some special horror attached to such attacks? does it in some way delegitimate the attackers in your eyes? put them beyond the pale? or are they just another damned armed force doing what humans have always done? fighting for their cause, while we fight for ours? Maye we have to kill them, maybe we can compromise with them? or ignore them? maybe we dont have to care what happens in Kenya or Mumbai?
Wyatt
09-21-2013, 08:55 PM
Im sure its life altering for those directly affected by the violence if they come from a background where violence of the sort is a rarity. For outsiders hearing about violence, its old hat in my opinion. I can hear about terrorist violence everyday if I watch the news. If I were the average observer half way around the world, I wouldn't care or bat an eye. Terrorists are losing the "terror" component of their attacks through over use.
I dont know if that makes it easier or harder for affected govts to deal with the situation.
TheCurmudgeon
09-21-2013, 09:13 PM
I posted this on my blog http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/09/21/kenya-mall-attack-targeting-civilians-on-the-basis-of-religion-is-now-ok/
Extended excerpt (basic question):
This can be classified as a "Mumbai style attack"...armed men attack a city, pick out one or more prominent civilian targets and slaughter any random person that they find, but may make an effort to spare Muslims. The target may have symbolic value. e.g. educated Westernized left-liberal observers will not have difficulty recognizing an upscale mall as a temple of capitalism, a bastion of imperialism and neo-colonialism, or a shrine to consumerism
I have not read enough about Kenya but I don't see it as a "Mumbai style" attack. Mumbai was clearly an attack by a foreign entity for political (and partially religious) reasons. This attack appears to be the opposite - a internally based entity attacked for religious (and partially political) reasons.
So my question is this: Their arguments and actions are horrible, tragic, sad, etc. But are they now so routine that they have become in some sense legitimate? That we accept them as part of the nature of war? after all, when more advanced countries fight each other (or weaker countries) and use aircraft to drop bombs or fire missiles, we sort of take it in our stride. War is bad, but when it does happen (and sometimes it happens), this is just how it is. Will we think about Mumbai-style attacks the same way now?[/I]
What might be more interesting is the question "do the victims not resonate with me enough to care?" or put another way "do I not feel enough affinity to this group to see myself as threatened by the activity of the terrorists?" The average Kenyan probably will not have anything in common with those who could shop in that mall. The average Westerner does not have enough in common with the average Kenyan to care. So you have a very limited audience who were intended to feel the brunt of this attack, if in fact it was a terrorist attack and not simply an act of war by a group who sees wealthy, non-muslim Kenyans as the enemy.
Here we see the intersection of religious identity and national identity that I discussed elsewhere.
SWJ Blog
09-22-2013, 03:51 AM
Images From A Terrorist Attack At A Mall In Kenya (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/images-from-a-terrorist-attack-at-a-mall-in-kenya)
Entry Excerpt:
--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/images-from-a-terrorist-attack-at-a-mall-in-kenya) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
M-A Lagrange
09-22-2013, 09:14 AM
I live in Nairobi, Westgate mall is 2km far from my home. Several of my friens and colleagues were in westgate mall when it happened. There was a children cooking contest going on that day and it was just another shopping Saturday for all.
Al Shebaab target this mall because there are a lot of foreigners and it is a symbol of Kenya economicial success. According to AS twitter account, this attack is made to force Kenya to withdraw its troops from Somalia. To me, it is a Mumbay stile attack: a group of armed men entered the mall and started to shoot in the crow.
What is amazing is to see all the people together, helping each others to escape, black, white, indians, muslim, christians... In a Kenya were ethnic group, religion and origins are often an issue: all are together to face this coward act.
The operations were still going on this Sunday at noon (Kenya time).
Entropy
09-22-2013, 06:27 PM
I think it's certainly a Mumbai-style attack. Monitoring the various twitter feeds, it's apparent that the attackers are being fed live intel and are coordinating efforts with and AS headquarters.
davidbfpo
09-22-2013, 06:39 PM
The list of the alleged kidnappers reported on Twitter, entitled PrayingForWestgate and by @shambuguREAL via @HSM_PRESS2; missing are 5 & 7 and the HSM account has been suspended:
10. abdirizak mouled 24 y.o from ontario canada
9. sayid nuh 25 y.o from kismayu somalia.
8. abdifatah osman keenadiid. 24 y.o from minneapolis.
6. gen mustafe noorudiin. 27 y.o from kansas city. MO.
4. qasim said mussa 22 y.o garissa KE.
3. ahmed nasir shirdoon 24 y.o from london UK.
2. zaki jama caraale 20 y.o from hargeisa somalia.
1. ismael guled 23 y.o from helsinki finland.
Another journalist refers to:
Among the attackers Jihadists from Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Kansas, Illinois, London, Helsinki, Damascus
Elsewhere UK C4 News has an interview with Al-Shabaab:http://www.channel4.com/news/al-shabaab-nairobi-kenya-westgate-shopping-mall-attack
davidbfpo
09-22-2013, 06:58 PM
An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:
The Westgate attack is the latest sign of the group’s weakness. It was a desperate, high-risk gamble by Shabaab to reverse its prospects. If the deadly attack succeeds in prompting vigilante violence by Kenyan citizens or heavy-handed government reactions against Somali residents, Shabaab stands a chance of recasting itself as the vanguard militia protecting Somalis against external enemies. It desperately needs to reframe the conflict in Somalia as Somalis versus the foreigners, not as Somalis who seek peace and a return to normalcy versus a toxic jihadi movement.
Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/09/22/2662191/deadly-attack-kenya-mall-sign-desperation/
Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.
Bill Moore
09-23-2013, 03:58 AM
An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:
Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/09/22/2662191/deadly-attack-kenya-mall-sign-desperation/
Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.
Seems we have heard this spin many times before. How many times have Al-Qaeda and Al Shabaab been on their last leg and about to die off? I agree the recent trend for Al Shabaab hasn't been good, but they still control a large section of Somalia, they still have control of around 5,000 fighters, and they were able to orchestrate a very sophisticated attack in another country, potentially with a multinational group of terrorists. If true that could imply the capacity to do the same in some locations in the West.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/22/world/meast/kenya-mall-al-shabaab-analysis/
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Al-Shabaab has threatened revenge on Kenya ever since Kenyan forces entered Somalia.
Mall attack shows Al-Shabaab has taken its ability to strike outside Somalia to a new level.
The operation meets criteria that al Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri listed in a recent message.
Al-Shabaab allies in region include Kenyan militant group al Hijra and Eritrean government.
After years of infighting and feuds, the Nairobi attack may also confirm the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab's most militant faction and its leader Mukhtar Abu al Zubayr (aka Ahmed Abdi Godane). Zubayr attended a madrassa in Pakistan as a young man and merged the group with al Qaeda in February 2012. He sees Al-Shabaab as part of al Qaeda's global jihad.
Dissenters have defected or been killed. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys of Al-Shabaab's old guard surrendered to Somali authorities.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/kenya-attack-raises-terror-concerns-us/story?id=20336438
During Congressional testimony in January 2012, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper listed al-Shabaab as one of the most significant terror threats to the homeland, in part due to a "foreign fighter cadre that includes U.S. passport holders... [who] may have aspirations to attack inside the United States."
However, a senior law enforcement official said the latest U.S. government analysis shows no heightened threat to the U.S. as a result of the Kenya attack. While al-Shabaab does have a desire to strike at Western targets in Africa, hitting the U.S. homeland is "not a priority" for them, the official said.
No predictions from me on this one, we'll see where this goes over the next few months.
It seems to me that part of what will result from the attack depends upon how strong a sense national identity Kenyans have. Will they view this as an attack upon Kenya and Kenyans? I don't know and would be appreciative if some who know about this would comment.
Here is a quote purportedly by a Kenyan general that I pulled off an Allafrica.com twitter feed.
""An army general was asked: 'Can you forgive a terrorist?' He replied: 'God forgives. Our task is to arrange their meeting'"
If the quote is accurate and the source real, I'd say that guy has his PR skills down pat.
M-A Lagrange
09-24-2013, 06:22 AM
Tuesday, early morning, gunshots exchange broke out from Westgate Mall. Long after the Kenyan authorities announced they were in full control of the mall but lost tracks of the attackers...
Not being Kenyan I cannot really answer to Carl's question, but what is clear is that there is both a radicalization of Kenyans over Somalis and, at the same time, a real sense of national unity against madness raising that is crosscutting all ethnic and religious groups.
I recommend the following article that analyses what's behind the attack and what it means for Al Shebaab.
Kenya attack is product of brutal power struggle within al-Shabaab
But Westgate also looks like a chilling statement of intent by Ahmed Abdi Godane, the al-Shabaab leader, who consolidated his power in June in an internal coup. Among four top commanders who were executed by Godane were two of the group's co-founders, known as al-Afghani and Burhan. Al-Shabaab's spiritual leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, fled for his life, and was subsequently detained by Somali government forces.
The infighting continues. Earlier this month, the Alabama-born al-Shabaab commander Omar Hammami, known as Abu Mansoor al-Amriki or "the American", and a British national known as Usama al-Britani, were shot dead in a dawn raid on their hideout by Godane's allies. Hammami, who was on Washington's most wanted list, had previously accused Godane of behaving like a dictator.
Godane, also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubayr, was behind al-Shabaab's decision in 2011 to affiliate to al-Qaida and adopt its global jihadist outlook. It is Godane who is said to have ordered the 2010 bombings in Kampala that killed 74 people – in protest at Uganda's participation in Amisom. In 2011 he published a jihadist video entitled "At your service, Osama". In it he vowed that "the wars will not end until sharia [law] is implemented in all continents in the world". Even before Westgate, he was one of the world's most wanted terrorists, with a $7m bounty on his head.
Sheikh Aweys, in contrast, is seen as a Somali Islamist nationalist opposed to foreign intervention of any kind, be it jihadist, western or African, a position he elaborated in a rare interview with the Guardian in 2008. His vanquishing was a victory for the hardliners, who are now in the ascendant. "[They] will want to show that it [al-Shabaab] remains a cohesive force, and my fear is that there will be an escalation of conflict, with more bombings," the Kenya-based Somali analyst Rashid Abdi presciently told the BBC after the June coup.
Al-Shabaab is under pressure on a number of other fronts. Having been ejected from the capital Mogadishu two years ago, it is facing a renewed campaign to retake key towns in central Somalia. Last week the central town of Mahadeey was overrun by Somali troops backed by Amisom. Although it still controls much of the south, loss of territory means loss of revenue and influence for the group. Meanwhile, 150 leading clerics have signed a government-supported fatwa asserting that al-Shabaab under Godane has strayed from the true path of Islam.
The apparent decision by Godane and fellow hardliners to again take the fight beyond Somalia's borders looks like a bid to regain the initiative in the face of these setbacks and disagreements. In addition, the group's occasional bomb attacks in Mogadishu keep the government on the back foot. The recent decision by the charity Médecins Sans Frontières to pull out of Somalia, due to worsening security, is a perverse vindication of such tactics. And Godane doubtless welcomes the negative impact of Barclays Bank's decision to close accounts used to send remittances to Somalia.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/kenya-attack-power-struggle-al-shabaab#!
Not being Kenyan I cannot really answer to Carl's question, but what is clear is that there is both a radicalization of Kenyans over Somalis and, at the same time, a real sense of national unity against madness raising that is crosscutting all ethnic and religious groups.[/url]!
That answers the question to a certain extent.
omarali50
09-24-2013, 09:13 PM
Is there a link to a good online account of the entire siege somewhere? I read today that 5 terrorists were killed. By all accounts, there were more to start with, so what happened to the rest? and how did these five die in the end?
KingJaja
09-25-2013, 12:08 AM
Sadly, a lot of this kind of thing will happen in future in Africa.
It's complicated - but where Islam meets Christianity in Africa, the borders are bloody. True, the assault by Al Shabaab is driven by Kenya's involvement in Somalia - but what about Mali, Northern Nigeria and Zanzibar (where acid is being thrown on non-Muslims).
A lot of Africa is poor and a lot of the poor Africans are Muslims and as long as poverty persists, Islamic fundamentalism is likely to persist.
Sorry if I seem to veer off on a tangent, but 180 people (or thereabouts) were killed in North East Nigeria around the same time. This thing is more than "a war on terror", this is an ideology, a belief system, a theology - many reasons might be given, but the thing that worries me is this:
There is no effective counter-narrative to jihadism within the Muslim community. None.
Jihadism isn't rational, what does it take for young men to willingly blow themselves up?
Africa is the worst continent to do your suicide bombing in the long run - eventually there will be a local solution to the suicide bombing problem, it will be extremely ugly - but mark my words, it will be effective.
M-A Lagrange
09-25-2013, 07:55 AM
Some details on the preparation of the attack:
Attack in Kenya was rehearsed, U.S. officials say
The plot to attack an upscale mall in Nairobi was hatched weeks or months ago on Somali soil by the militant Islamist group al-Shabab, and a team of English-speaking foreign fighters was carefully selected, the New York Times reported Tuesday, citing unnamed U.S. officials.
The blueprints of the Westgate mall were studied, down to the ventilation ducts. The attack was rehearsed and the team dispatched, slipping undetected through Kenya's porous borders, often patrolled by underpaid — and deeply corrupt — border guards, according to the officials.
A day or two before Saturday's attack, powerful belt-fed machine guns were secretly stashed in a shop in the mall with the help of a colluding employee, the officials said. At least one militant had packed a change of clothes so he could slip out with fleeing civilians after the killings were done.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/world/attack-in-kenya-was-rehearsed-us-officials-say/2143787
Bill Moore
09-25-2013, 08:04 AM
Sadly, a lot of this kind of thing will happen in future in Africa.
It's complicated - but where Islam meets Christianity in Africa, the borders are bloody. True, the assault by Al Shabaab is driven by Kenya's involvement in Somalia - but what about Mali, Northern Nigeria and Zanzibar (where acid is being thrown on non-Muslims).
A lot of Africa is poor and a lot of the poor Africans are Muslims and as long as poverty persists, Islamic fundamentalism is likely to persist.
Sorry if I seem to veer off on a tangent, but 180 people (or thereabouts) were killed in North East Nigeria around the same time. This thing is more than "a war on terror", this is an ideology, a belief system, a theology - many reasons might be given, but the thing that worries me is this:
There is no effective counter-narrative to jihadism within the Muslim community. None.
Jihadism isn't rational, what does it take for young men to willingly blow themselves up?
Africa is the worst continent to do your suicide bombing in the long run - eventually there will be a local solution to the suicide bombing problem, it will be extremely ugly - but mark my words, it will be effective.
What are they waiting on? This has been going on for years, yet the response in most cases has been fairly tame. People fighting for survival won't and probably shouldn't play by our rules. We wouldn't follow our rules if we were seriously threatened.
KingJaja
09-25-2013, 11:21 AM
What are they waiting on? This has been going on for years, yet the response in most cases has been fairly tame. People fighting for survival won't and probably shouldn't play by our rules. We wouldn't follow our rules if we were seriously threatened.
Please read this:
Volunteer Vigilance Youths Group (VVYG) otherwise known as 'Civilian JTF' on Thursday arrested and set ablaze an alleged notorious Boko Haram sect member at Gwange ward in Maiduguri, Borno State capital, residents and witnesses said.
This is the second time the youths would burn a suspected member of the Boko Haram in less than a week.
Some of the vigilante members who took part in the burning said the suspect had once killed and burned a soldier in the area sometime last year.
The claim could not be verified from the spokesman of the Joint Task Force, JTF, Lt Col Sagir Musa but a security source confirmed that the youths had burnt the suspect.
"This (the action of the vigilantes) is a serious source of concern to us... jungle justice is a crime in itself and we want parents to caution their wards against it," the source said.
Weekly Trust gathered that the suspected Boko Haram member had led insurgents in the killing of many people and perpetrated "many atrocities" at Gwange Sabon Layi.
"The actions of the suspect who fled to the forest last December prompted soldiers to sack residents from the area," a resident of Gwange said.
One of the vigilantes also corroborated. "Only Allah knows how eager we were to catch that guy (burnt suspect) alive. As a result of his bad deeds, soldiers sacked and closed our area completely. But we were then told that the guy had escaped into the forest. Some even believed that he has been killed since. We were on operations when we saw him.
"On seeing him, all the youths shouted 'here he is'. Then everyone of us was jubilating, seeing our 'wanted guy'.
"So, we instantly reminded him of what he did last year, but to our surprise, he started begging us to pardon him. As he was crying, we tied him up, poured fuel on his body and set him on fire. No pity for Boko Haram sect members at all now. Thousands have been displaced and hundreds were killed because of his bad deeds," the vigilante said.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201307270089.html
M-A Lagrange
09-25-2013, 12:05 PM
The Shebaab claim they killed 137 hostages. Still at least 50 persons MIA in Westgate. Will be difficult to find out as the roof collapsed.
Al-Shabaab claim 137 hostages killed at Westgate
The Al-Shabaab insurgents claimed on Wednesday that they had killed 137 hostages during the Westgate Mall siege, figures impossible to verify and higher than the number of people officially registered as missing.
The fighters, in a message posted on Twitter, said "137 hostages who were being held by the mujahedeen" had died.
They also accused the Kenya Defence forces of using "chemical agents" to end the four-day stand-off.
"In an act of sheer cowardice, beleaguered Kenyan forces deliberately fired projectiles containing chemical agents," one tweet read.
"To cover their crime, the Kenyan government carried out a demolition to the building, burying evidence and all hostages under the rubble."
http://m.news24.com/kenya/National/News/Al-Shabaab-claim-137-hostages-killed-at-Westgate-20130925
Tukhachevskii
09-25-2013, 12:33 PM
List Of Nairobi Attackers, Including Westerners, Published On Social Media (http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/7425.htm)
M-A Lagrange
09-26-2013, 07:51 AM
An interresting article on the Al Shebaab finance and the impact of Westgate attack on Shebaab incomes.
Shabaab finances face squeeze after Kenya attack
Al Shabaab's economic strength is vital to its operations because it can pay its thousands of fighters a monthly salary normally varying between $100 to $300 a month.
That, more than its declared aim of imposing a strict version of Sharia or Islamic law, is the main incentive to join up, Somali researchers say.
Ironically, al Shabaab's income may have benefited from an upturn in the Somali economy that followed the partial restoration of order in Mogadishu over the past two years and a growth in investment amid hopes of an end to years of war.
In the wake of the four-day attack by al Shabaab militants on a Nairobi shopping mall in which at least 72 people were killed, Western counter-terrorism agencies are expected to subject the group's sources of financial support to renewed scrutiny, Somali experts say.
The success of such efforts will depend to a large extent on the choices made by Somalis, in particular the powerful Somali business community in east Africa.
According to Ken Menkhaus, a leading U.S. scholar of al Shabaab, the most formidable weapon against al Shabaab may be the Somalia expatriate business community in Kenya, which has emerged as a force in property and trade in the past 20 years.
http://www.courant.com/news/nation-world/sns-rt-us-kenya-attack-shabaab-funding-20130925,0,7423755.story
davidbfpo
09-29-2013, 01:10 PM
Peter Taylor, one of the BBC's most respected reporters, was in Kenya before the Westgate Mall attack, preparing a Panorama programme and has an article 'On the trail of al-Shabab’s Kenyan recruitment 'pipeline', before the programme is broadcast:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-24263357
He cites a radical Kenyan cleric:
There's no such thing as a moderate Muslim. The prophets did not teach us moderation in Islam - Islam is Islam.. Being a moderate Muslim is accepting what your enemies want you to be.
The dilemma facing Kenya is shared by others:
The key question is how these radical clerics are able to operate openly without being prosecuted. In September 2012, Makaburi was charged with several counts of incitement for his part in the riots following Sheikh Rogo's assassination. He is currently on bail pending a trial.
The Kenyan authorities I spoke to said Makaburi and other radical clerics operate to the very limit of what the law allows and gathering the evidence to convict them is extremely difficult. The United Kingdom faces the same problem.
I must read the chapter in the QIASS on how those who oppose recruitment in Minneapolis-St. Paul Jihadists are working. The NYT has this short article, I note the local Somali community is thirty-two thousand strong and twenty young men left a few years ago to fight in Somalia:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/us/somali-community-in-us-fears-new-wave-of-stigma-after-kenya-attack.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_ee_20130929
The Panorama programme is available on IPlayer:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03d5byk
Bill Moore
09-29-2013, 05:30 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09/29/college-provost-says-suspected-islamic-extremists-kill-about-50-students-in/
Islamist terrorists kill dozens of students in attack on Nigerian college
Islamic terrorists dressed in Nigerian military uniforms assaulted a college inside the country Sunday, gunning down dozens of students as they slept in their dorms and shot those trying to flee, witnesses say.
"They started gathering students into groups outside, then they opened fire and killed one group and then moved onto the next group and killed them. It was so terrible," on surviving student, who would only give his first name of Idris, told Reuters.
KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.
KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.
Bill, they apparently have 9 perps in custody. Given that Kenya does not have the same sensitivities over the use of ... shall we say ... coercion, they will soon all be singing like little birdies. All will be revealed.
That said, yes, you are correct it then depends on what is done with the intel.
jmm99
09-29-2013, 09:22 PM
insulting all the real animals I love. :D
The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.
In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.
Regards
Mike
Bill Moore
09-30-2013, 12:58 AM
insulting all the real animals I love. :D
The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.
In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.
Regards
Mike
I used to think our strategists would wake up to simple truths and realize how deeply flawed our COIN doctrine really is. This is relevant because we have largely chosen to use a COIN approach to counter terrorism globalism globally by projecting the idea that if you just have good governance all of this will go away. I'm convinced now that our ill conceived views of how the world works hasn't and won't change just because those views are disproven when they bump up against reality. Nations that have a clearer view of reality, a reality not shaded by our idealism, will have to take the lead in the fight against terrorists. They shouldn't allow us to hold them back.
The only way to win over these ass clowns is to convert to their religion and embrace "their" version of sharia law. Of course that won't be enough, it never is. Where they achieve power status what follows will be the oppression of women, and then certain men won't be Muslim enough for the radicals so they'll have to be killed, and so on and so on.
jmm99
09-30-2013, 02:24 AM
While I still adhere generally to the concept of neutralization (not as a euphemism, but meaning to kill, detain indefinitely or convert), the option of conversion has never seemed to me - in and from the Vietnam era to the present - of much value in dealing with persons of strong ideologies (political or religious). Besides the "converts" are usually low-hanging fruit (lower rankers); and you can't really trust them.
The option of indefinite detention has the potential positive value of data gathering - we can discuss what techniques ought to be used ad infinitum. However, as the Gitmo cases show, indefinite detention has become a limited US option; and, perhaps, that is as it should be. I'm OK with that so long as the kill option is open.
The kill option has three parts:
1. The person killed did, or was involved in the doing of (including being an immediate or imminent threat, #3 below), a bad thing (so, the killing is "retribution").
2. The reasons for killing that person are articulated and absolutely no apology is made for the killing (our articulation is "reprobation").
3. By killing that person, we prevent future bad acts by that person; but we also have to kill those persons who are an immediate or imminent threat to do, or who are involved in the planning of doing, bad acts ("specific deterrence").
I'm not in favor of the US being the World's go to sniper; and personally favor non-violent action in all cases where it's likely to work. But, there are man-eating humans roaming the World; and after initial contact, the US should do onto them as they do unto the US.
NB: The theory of general deterrence (influencing a number of others not to do something by punishing a guilty person) is really an attempt at indirect conversion. Thus, I believe in general deterrence even less than direct attemps at conversiom. I'm also a hard sell on rehabilitation programs.
In reality, I'm a lousy singer - except when very drunk, or in the shower. :D I also confess to having used the metaphor "man-eating tiger" more than once at SWC and elsewhere. :)
Regards
Mike
PS: After posting this, I read Kilcullen's Westgate mall attacks: urban areas are the battleground of the 21st century - As the terror attack in Nairobi this week brutally illustrates, cities will be the war zones of the future (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/27/westgate-mall-attacks-al-qaida) (Guardian, 27 Sep 2013). I've been preaching about littorals for years; the Marine Corps has been preaching about littorals since well before I was born; and if anyone hasn't seen the population move to slum-cities (on or a vertical envelopment's distance from a coast), that person is blind.
Unless it is very implicit, Kilcullen does not offer an ideology to deal with the "urban problem":
Understanding the new, highly connected nature of urban environments like Mumbai or Nairobi is an important first step in preparing to deal with this problem. Big data can sometimes help. Analysts can now track millions upon millions of data points (traffic patterns, say, or cellphone usage, or pedestrian movement, or prices in markets, or internet hits, or bank transactions, or numbers and types of cars in parking lots) to understand, through remote observation, how a city works. But how do we do that in enormous megaslums that are constantly growing and morphing and which don't have the street names and building addresses that allow geo-data to mean something?
Many of today's coastal cities, especially those in the developing world, are growing at breakneck speed. In a conflict, people's uncertainty arises from armed groups targeting the population; in a city that's growing exponentially – constantly outgrowing itself – the same terrifying lack of predictability can arise simply from the pace of change. Thus a megacity under stress can offer opportunities for conflict entrepreneurs (gang leaders, crime bosses or militant extremists) to control populations, provided they create a predictable rule set that makes people feel safe in the face of instability. This occurs because of the predictability inherent in the rules, whether people like the group or not, and regardless of the content of those rules. You don't have to like the cops, or agree with the speed limit, for the road rules to make you feel safe. Eventually, provided the group builds consistency and order, through a spectrum of persuasive, administrative and coercive measures, it may gain the loyalty and support of the local population.
...
As we dust ourselves off after a decade of war, community resilience, public safety and economic opportunity in crowded urban areas may turn out to matter more than counterterrorism or counterinsurgency. Designers and urbanists speak of participative development and human-centred design as key elements of a new approach to city development. Figuring how to co-design solutions in partnership with a local community, when the community is under threat and someone is shooting at you, may be the hardest challenge of all.
Whether you like it or not, "talion" (retribution, reprobation, specific deterrence) is an ideology. But in the US: here, yesterday; gone, today.
Unlike us, the "conflict entrepreneurs" are not shy about a talion ideology. They apply its principles and its moderators within their group (e.g., Taliban in Astan), but are at war with the outside groups that oppose their interests.
The only recipe Kilcullen offers in the article is "...community resilience, public safety and economic opportunity ..." Please, spare me more state building; excuse, city buliding.
I've cited "Eye for an Eye" in another thread (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=149555&postcount=22); but here's the ideology that used to be - Hitesman, Setting the Stage for Justice in the Revenge Genre Film (http://usf.usfca.edu/pj/revenge_hitesman.htm) (2005) (a good short treatment).
Bill Moore
09-30-2013, 02:36 AM
the option of conversion has never seemed to me - in and from the Vietnam era to the present - of much value in dealing with persons of strong ideologies (political or religious). Besides the "converts" are usually low-hanging fruit (lower rankers); and you can't really trust them.
My comment was intended to imply we can win them over if we convert to their religious views, but even that would fail. Besides who wants to convert to any religion, especially one based on hate and ignorance? Obviously some do, probably come from the same psychological stock as the anarchists.
jmm99
09-30-2013, 03:07 AM
I mean attempting to convert the bad guys to "our" ideology.
Regards
Mike
M-A Lagrange
09-30-2013, 08:08 AM
I will not disagree with Dr Kilcullen, cause he is the expert. But I would like to point 2 things:
1. Nairobi is no coastal city and it drags most of the people in Kenya. In Kenya, the coastal cities, like Mombasa, are the areas where AS and radical Islam find support.
2. Like for the radical Islamist from Uganda (Jamil Mukulu from ADF), Godane, the AS leader, studied in Pakistan and tied links with radical Islam in Pakistan. (See: Kenya mall attack mastermind studied in Pakistan: Report, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-09-26/rest-of-world/42425545_1_kenyan-abdi-aynte-somali-militia)
The real question that comes is not so much what the hell Kenya is doing against Somalis but rather what the hell the world is not doing about Pakistan fueling and training radical Islamist in Africa.
Pakistan presence, like Indian one, in Africa is still under estimated and the role of Pakistani peace keepers in proselytism and black economy still not understood nor evaluated.
KingJaja
09-30-2013, 12:48 PM
I will not disagree with Dr Kilcullen, cause he is the expert. But I would like to point 2 things:
1. Nairobi is no coastal city and it drags most of the people in Kenya. In Kenya, the coastal cities, like Mombasa, are the areas where AS and radical Islam find support.
2. Like for the radical Islamist from Uganda (Jamil Mukulu from ADF), Godane, the AS leader, studied in Pakistan and tied links with radical Islam in Pakistan. (See: Kenya mall attack mastermind studied in Pakistan: Report, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-09-26/rest-of-world/42425545_1_kenyan-abdi-aynte-somali-militia)
The real question that comes is not so much what the hell Kenya is doing against Somalis but rather what the hell the world is not doing about Pakistan fueling and training radical Islamist in Africa.
Pakistan presence, like Indian one, in Africa is still under estimated and the role of Pakistani peace keepers in proselytism and black economy still not understood nor evaluated.
I think the greater worry is Saudi Arabia - but the West can't run a foreign policy it cannot afford, so no Western diplomat or politician is EVER going to take a tough stance on Saudi funded preachers, Saudi-trained fundamentalists preachers, Saudi funded fundamentalist Mosques or Wahabbi influence in Africa.
KingJaja
09-30-2013, 01:45 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09/29/college-provost-says-suspected-islamic-extremists-kill-about-50-students-in/
KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.
The Nigerian Army is as brutal as they come, but we are dealing with something that might be beyond the capacity of the Nigerian Army (120,000 soldiers also managing a Niger Delta insurgency & a Middle Belt crisis).
The Sahel had great inland cities & it's economy was based on transactions between the interior & the Maghreb. Unfortunately, European trade with the coasts broke those links & even though the physical routes for trade are intact, very little trade occurs in that region.
That region is not economically productive & will never be, but it is still linked to the Maghreb & the interior. So we are dealing with a transnational problem that might only get worse with time.
It is impossible to police Nigeria's Northern borders - so these animals will have free movement through even weaker states like Niger, Chad & Cameroun - which they could destabilize large parts of in future.
I don't know how this thing will end, but it won't end soon. It will end only after all parties are exhausted.
Two points and some questions.
First, the North American continent is getting very close to energy, fossil fuel, self sufficiency, even to the point we get to be exporters again, especially in natural gas. How might that affect our relations with Saudi Arabia?
Second, it seems the takfiri killers are embarking upon a simple religious war, kill the Christians. This is being seen in quite a few countries. How might this play out? Are they trying to provoke a reaction directed against all Muslims? That would make sense since that would give them the upper hand in the on-going struggle for leadership in the Muslim world.
Another point I just thought of. M-A is right about the Pak Army/ISI. They are the main devil. When/if they win in Afghanistan, they will be hugely encouraged as will all the takfiri killers worldwide. They will want to go on to bigger and better things. Ultimately theynwill have to be taken care of. How?
Sargent
09-30-2013, 04:55 PM
So my question is this: Their arguments and actions are horrible, tragic, sad, etc. But are they now so routine that they have become in some sense legitimate? That we accept them as part of the nature of war? after all, when more advanced countries fight each other (or weaker countries) and use aircraft to drop bombs or fire missiles, we sort of take it in our stride. War is bad, but when it does happen (and sometimes it happens), this is just how it is. Will we think about Mumbai-style attacks the same way now?
I wonder why we think this will be limited to Africa or jihadists? It seems to me that any radical group watching these events is going to see a very effective vehicle to attack. While we may no longer spool up much emotion or response to these events within the GWOT context, when they happen in Paris, Beijing, or Dallas and are related to other issues this will be seen as the challenge of the next several decades to come.
In general, though, I think it would be more useful to stop calling this terrorism and start recognizing it as a legitimate shift in the warfare of the weaker or dispersed party.
jmm99
10-01-2013, 03:25 AM
I've watched Unforgiven and Seven (each top notch), two of the three movies reviewed by Hitesman, several times each. The first and oldest movie in the review is King of the Pecos (Wiki - King of the Pecos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_of_the_Pecos)), which I watched last nite on Youtube, Youtube - King of the Pecos (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBPoUlrkHbw) (1 hr). This is a morality play in black & white.
I'm following Hitesman's review for the movie's scenes - the "quotes" below are mostly my summings of his facts (so, whatever errors are mine). The brief comments are entirely mine.
1. The Basis for John Clayborn's Personal Revenge-Retribution
Alexander Stiles, an ambitious land grabber (he envisions a million acre empire), and his lawyer Brewster, visit the Sweetwater homestead of the Clayborn parents and their son John. Stiles offers $1,000 for the land (probably fair for the land, but ignoring the strategic value of its key watering hole which controls the route between Texas and the Kansas cattle markets ). Clayborn pere refuses the offer. Stiles calls in his running gun Ash and his men. The parents are shot and their son is beaten and left for dead. Stiles then homesteads Sweetwater himself !
I follow Bill Miller's revenge = retribution equation; but I point out that there is a wide spectrum between (1) a one person vendetta; and (2) a society based on talion principles and having mediators to regulate the process.
2. John Clay's Insurgency - Non-Violent Action
Ten years pass. John Clayborn (having taken the name, John Clay) has grown up into a gunslinger and lawyer - don't laugh; recall Andrew Jackson (successful as lawyer and duelist; and not a bad tactician). J.C. (are the initials a coincidence ?) moves to Stiles' county seat, and takes on a group of independent cattle owners as clients in a lawsuit against Stiles. The county judge is an honest but timid man; and Stiles intimidates him from coming to the court house. Clay keeps to non-violent action, but safeguards the judge's passage into the courtroom with an armed force he has mustered. There, Stiles, represented by Brewster, has to sit in a civil trial aimed at voiding Stiles' water hole claims because they are public domain; and thus requiring re-payment of the exorbitant tolls he got from the independent cattle owners. The Court finds for Clay's clients on all counts, except that Stiles is entitled to Sweetwater (which Stiles homesteaded himself after killing Clay's parents). Brewster is fired by Stiles for losing the trial; paid off by Stiles (a "fair cut"); and later killed by Ash at Stiles' behest with recovery of Stiles' money.
Note that this result, besides being non-violent action (Clay employs defensive armed force to protect the judge), is not retribution for Clay or for his clients. It is restitution for the clients, but not for Clay (Clayborn). So, the movie still goes along with the moral sentiments of the 1930s political elites in eschewing revenge-retribution and substituting the idea of restitution. A more touchy-feely segment of today's political elite would require, in addition, reconciliation - with a truth and reconciliation committee facilitating "making nice" between Clay (Clayburn) and Stiles.
3. John Clay's Insurgency - Violent Action
Despite his losing of the legal trial, there is a inadequate legal system to enforce the Court's order, and even to prevent Stiles from using force. No longer able to control the other rancher's cattle by means of the watering holes, Stiles orders Ash and his men to gather all of their cattle by force ("rustle 'em"). To defeat Stiles and his men, Clay organizes the ranchers into a mass cattle drive that must stop in Sweetwater on its way to Abilene. When Stiles refuses access to Sweetwater, Clay (now revealing himself as John Clayborn) and the ranchers kill Stiles and Ash in somewhat the same fashion that Clayborn's parents were murdered years before.
But, before that happens, Clayburn offers Stiles the option of returning (with Ash) to the county seat to face trial for the murder of his parents. Stiles had set up an ambush of Clayburn, but Clayburn had set up a counter-ambush. Stiles decided it was better to live and fight from a fortified position, and waved off Ash and his ambushers.
So, in the end, Clayburn gets his personal revenge-retribution, but only because Stiles refused to take a chance on a murder trial - where a conviction in those days (19th century Texas) would have resulted in group revenge-retribution against the bad guys.
But, we have more. I've cast Clayburn in the insurgent's role to give viewers some mind exercise. Actually, he is the counter-insugent who employs the strategies and tactics of the insurgent. Stiles is the insurgent who takes over Sweetwater and the rest of the Pecos by Lawfare (Brewster) and Warfare (Ash). So, Clayburn responds by neutralizing (options are to kill, detain or convert) Stiles, Ash and his crew; Clayburn goes from non-violent to violent action, when necessary.
That kind of response spans John McCuen's spectrum - see thread for John McCuen (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=10908), RIP. As Ken White points out in the thread, McCuen's principles work better in cities ! As Cavguy points out in his OP on McCuen:
(1) You must secure your urban centers. I agree with John McCuen that you don't uncover your semi-secure urban base to chase insurgents in the wild. The enemy wants you to do that so he can infiltrate and begin building the political and operational cells in the now-undermanned cities while you chase his bands in the bush, and then look back to find your cities on fire. ...
My 19th century morality play is addressed to the 21st century, but I don't expect its political elite to take notice.
Regards
Mike
davidbfpo
10-01-2013, 06:28 PM
For African "hands" I doubt the allegations made in a Kenyan newspaper will come as a surprise; the sub-title:
It can now be revealed that the KDF stole cash and other miscellaneous items worth millions of shillings from the westgate mall. This happened during a rescue operation to end the recent siege by Al shabaab militants.
Link:http://www.nairobiexposed.com/2013/09/29/revealed-kdf-stole-millions-westgate-mall/
Not surprising but always so sad to hear, especially since the article says the Kenyan Police figure many fewer people would have died if the army had kept out of it.
It's bad on another level too. When this kind of thing happens, people figure why bother with Africa?
davidbfpo
10-01-2013, 07:04 PM
Stephen Tankel adds his analysis:http://warontherocks.com/2013/10/keeping-score-in-the-war-on-al-qaeda/
KingJaja
10-02-2013, 12:33 AM
Two points and some questions.
First, the North American continent is getting very close to energy, fossil fuel, self sufficiency, even to the point we get to be exporters again, especially in natural gas. How might that affect our relations with Saudi Arabia?
Second, it seems the takfiri killers are embarking upon a simple religious war, kill the Christians. This is being seen in quite a few countries. How might this play out? Are they trying to provoke a reaction directed against all Muslims? That would make sense since that would give them the upper hand in the on-going struggle for leadership in the Muslim world.
Another point I just thought of. M-A is right about the Pak Army/ISI. They are the main devil. When/if they win in Afghanistan, they will be hugely encouraged as will all the takfiri killers worldwide. They will want to go on to bigger and better things. Ultimately theynwill have to be taken care of. How?
Sub-Saharan Africa is a bit different from the Middle East - it has a lot more Christians than Muslims & Christians tend to be located more in the wealthier, coastal cities.
If they want to provoke a reaction from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa - eventually they'll get it, but they will regret it.
Sub-Saharan Africa is a bit different from the Middle East - it has a lot more Christians than Muslims & Christians tend to be located more in the wealthier, coastal cities.
If they want to provoke a reaction from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa - eventually they'll get it, but they will regret it.
From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?
M-A Lagrange
10-02-2013, 11:00 AM
to read with caution:
Names of Westgate attack mastermind revealed
According to Channel 4 News in UK the alleged leader of the Nairobi shopping mall attack was born a Christian in Kenya and is a former member of the country's special forces.
The number one Westgate attacker was named as Omar or Umayr, who is believed to have been killed in this week’s siege.
Omar was a Kenyan national, born to a Christian family from Nairobi. He converted to Islam and was also a former member of Kenya’s special forces.
Umayr is understood to have left Kenya for Somalia in 2005, where he joined the Kamboni militant Islamist group. Kamboni later joined with al-Shabaab.
The report said the second man is known as Khadhab, who is a Somali national who worked in an Islamic bookshop in the Nairobi suburb of Eastleigh. He was arrested and imprisoned in Somalia, and it is alleged he was tortured by the CIA while in custody there.
http://dalsanradio.com/articles/1568/Names-of-Westgate-attack-mastermind-revealed
Somalia: Al-Shabab Finds Fighters Among Somali Youth in Minnesota
Nimco Ahmed, a Somali activist who works for the Minneapolis City Council, says the war and resettlement has fractured the traditional family structure.
"Most of our fathers are either not here or not in the country or dead pretty much. So not having a father figure for boys has been a struggle for us. And it is still a struggle for us," said Ahmed.
Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia in 2007 was viewed by some Somalis as a violation of Somali sovereignty even though the troops intervened at the request of the transitional Somali government and with the backing of the African Union and the U.S.
Using a mixture of religion, nationalism and what some say is deception, the Islamist militant group al-Shabab has recruited at least 20 Somali-Americans to fight against foreign troops in Somalia.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201310010226.html
KingJaja
10-02-2013, 12:01 PM
From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?
Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.
I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.
omarali50
10-02-2013, 04:20 PM
There are two different scenarios in which someone may attack a developed city in this way and while the initial hysterical-phase reaction is likely to be similar in both cases, they are not the same:
1. Some small demented group of crazied (aum whatever or suchlike) gets it into their head to do something spectacular. They kill many people, they get killed, their associates and known members get tracked down and killed or imprisoned, billions or trillions get wasted on new "Mall security" or some such, but its not really a repeatable and constant threat.
2. Some group with a real agenda, a real organization, a real ideology, attacks a developed city because their grievance with country X has reached criticality. The most likely suspect for such an act in the years to come is the jihadis. But even they cannot do this again and again. After the first attack or the third, their goose will be cooked. A sustained campaign needs a base, needs an organization, needs a pipeline of volunteers and trainers and financiers. How long before Pakistan is forced to stop any and all connection with ANY such business (or to die trying to cut them off)? I dont see how it can become a sustained and "normal" threat in advanced countries.
Its a different story for corrupt and incompetent regional powers. THEY should worry.
Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.
I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.
That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?
(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)
That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?
(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)
Carl, this smacks of reckless desperation.
The key to any grand strategy is to make sure that whatever you do/use/implement during a 'war' it does not lead to greater polarization of groups/factions after the war.
As with anywhere - and most certainly in Africa - vigilantly 'justice' will often lead to scores being settled etc. Soon will get get out of control.
A sure indication the police and military have lost control.
JMA:
You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.
You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?
KingJaja
10-03-2013, 02:04 PM
Totally unrelated.
But has it occurred to anyone that "Bin Ladenism" & its manifestations - is essentially a religious movement?
JMA:
You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.
You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?
Carl, I don't know Nigeria at all.
But... in general African terms 'decentralisation' is not the norm.
Their hand might have been forced through their inability to protect the population to allow local militias/vigilanties/whatever to operate... and let the future look after itself.
Sargent
10-03-2013, 02:55 PM
1. Some small demented group of crazied (aum whatever or suchlike) gets it into their head to do something spectacular. They kill many people, they get killed, their associates and known members get tracked down and killed or imprisoned, billions or trillions get wasted on new "Mall security" or some such, but its not really a repeatable and constant threat.
Repeatability over the long term would likely reduce the efficacy of such attacks. But even without achieving that, constancy of threat is entirely different. That is about perceptions and expectations, fear and concern. And we're not talking about how you or anyone here will appreciate such events - rather, it's about how Joe and Jane Schumackatelli deal with it - which in the short run is not good, and in the long run actually improves. But in that first window of chaos you could see a state or society flail badly, to quite harmful effect.
2. Some group with a real agenda, a real organization, a real ideology, attacks a developed city because their grievance with country X has reached criticality. The most likely suspect for such an act in the years to come is the jihadis. But even they cannot do this again and again. After the first attack or the third, their goose will be cooked. A sustained campaign needs a base, needs an organization, needs a pipeline of volunteers and trainers and financiers. How long before Pakistan is forced to stop any and all connection with ANY such business (or to die trying to cut them off)? I dont see how it can become a sustained and "normal" threat in advanced countries.
Its a different story for corrupt and incompetent regional powers. THEY should worry.
Does one need to maintain a regular tempo for such attacks to be effective? I think you could manage one or two a year and cause real damage - again, too much frequency allows people to adapt and realize they can prevail. Anyway, I don't think we can apply all of the same rules of warfare as are required in high intensity conventional conflict. There may be more and longer temporal gaps - as the enemy copes with the issues you cite.
And even as they are identified, how much did OEF really do to eliminate AQ's threat? Or the Taliban's? So, even as we might be able to identify who is supporting such groups and where, that does not guarantee that they will be dealt with effectively.
Jill
omarali50
10-03-2013, 03:16 PM
" how much did OEF really do to eliminate AQ's threat? Or the Taliban's? So, even as we might be able to identify who is supporting such groups and where, that does not guarantee that they will be dealt with effectively."
Well, one could say that OEF was misdirected. Still, there has not been another attack, not just because one group of attackers was disrupted and scattered, and because huge investments were made in security, but also because those states capable of hosting and organizing a really serious group of attackers are now scared of the consequences. Deterrence may have been possible at much less cost, but that is a separate issue. Some deterrence was undoubtedly created by that response..and organized groups with serious and capable backers are still (at least somewhat) scared. Otherwise, they would have tried something by now. Or at least, taken very few steps to prevent an operation being carried out by crazier, smaller, less-sane groups.
davidbfpo
10-03-2013, 10:21 PM
Two pieces by Aidan Hartley, a white Kenyan reporter, in The Spectator. The first is an account of two white Kenyan survivors, which is grim reading.
From the penultimate paragraph an optimistic note:
Both Simon and Amanda stress to me repeatedly that they are proud to be Kenyans. Their origins are British, but Simon’s family arrived here in 1908. ‘Everybody has been so good to us. We are Kenyans, whether we’re Hindus, Christians or Muslims. And we are not blaming Muslims.’
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9034771/surviving-nairobis-westgate-mall-siege/
Alongside in the printed edition is a shorter piece, with the title 'An African Khmer Rouge' and the online version is called 'Al-Qa'eda targeted Kenya not because it's a banana republic, but because it's a symbol of African success'.
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9034791/the-growth-of-al-shabaab-by-the-one-westerner-to-meet-its-founder/
Note the similarity between this and Steve Metz's recent WPR comment, posted elsewhere and the link is:http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13264/strategic-horizons-al-qaida-s-resurgence-like-its-demise-is-greatly-exaggerated
davidbfpo
10-04-2013, 02:31 PM
The cleric interviewed by Peter Taylor (see Post 21) was murdered last night outside Mombasa, in a mystery shooting; the second such shooting of a radical Kenyan cleric:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24398548
VOA reports rioting in Mombasa:http://www.voanews.com/content/riots-erupt-in-kenyan-city-after-muslim-cleric-slain/1762881.html
M-A Lagrange
10-05-2013, 07:45 AM
This certainly does not settle the scores but it sent a clear message:
Militant base 'attacked from sea' in Somalia
A spokesman for the al-Shabab Islamist group told Reuters news agency that a fighter had been killed in the raid.
Reports speak of residents in the militant-controlled town being woken by heavy gunfire before dawn prayers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24409797#TWEET911207
Bill Moore
10-05-2013, 05:45 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/britain-and-turkey-were-behind-early-morning-raid-on-southern-somali-town-claim-alshabaab-militants-8860808.html
The Islamist militia group al-Shabaab has said that a military strike on one of its strongholds in southern Somalia was carried out by British and Turkish special forces.
break
Somali security officials told the Reuters news agency that the target of the attack had been a Chechen leader of the Islamist group, which has formal ties to Al-Qa'ida.
But official accounts differ over who carried out the operation.
"We understand that French troops injured Abu Diyad, also known as Abu Ciyad, an al-Shabaab leader from Chechnya. They killed his main guard who was also a foreigner. The main target was the Shabaab leader from Chechnya," said an intelligence officer based in Mogadishu, who gave his name as Mohamed, speaking to Reuters.
First reports are generally inaccurate, but if you believe Al-Shabaab this particular raid didn't go so well. In the real world (as differentiated from the world the media projects) not all operations go well, and high risk still means high risk.
davidbfpo
10-05-2013, 06:17 PM
I think the allegation that Turkish SF were involved is interesting. Turkey has of late been pushing its influence and activity in Mogadishu, with airlinks, NGO activity and the like - with a reported favourable local reaction. IIRC Turkey has eschewed any military role and awhile ago Al-Shabaab launched an attack on one outpost.
First reports are generally inaccurate, but if you believe Al-Shabaab this particular raid didn't go so well. In the real world (as differentiated from the world the media projects) not all operations go well, and high risk still means high risk.
This, I submit, is part of the problem.
We need to question how a 'mickey mouse' organisation can control - and thereby manipulate - the information flow... unless there was no attack after all.
This certainly does not settle the scores but it sent a clear message:
Exactly what message is that?
davidbfpo
10-05-2013, 09:52 PM
Now the NYT reports, after a "leak" that:
A Navy SEAL team seized a senior leader of the Shabab militant group from his seaside villa in the Somali town of Baraawe on Saturday, American officials said
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/world/africa/mall-attack-also-involved-kenyans-official-says.html?smid=tw-bna
omarali50
10-05-2013, 10:30 PM
Now saying "believed to have been killed" instead of captured. Sounds like the raid may have failed.
Bill Moore
10-06-2013, 12:21 AM
Reports are still mixed on the Somali operation against Al-Shabaab, which isn't unusual.
More significant is the apparent successful operation in Libya to capture al-Liby who is a very significant AQ operative. I have no idea if he was tied to the recent attack in Kenya, but he is tied to the attack on the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, so he obviously had a network in the region at one time.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/05/world/africa/libya-al-qaeda-leader-captured/
A key al Qaeda operative wanted for his role in the bombings of U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998 has been captured in a U.S. special operations forces raid in Tripoli, Libya, U.S. officials tell CNN.
Abu Anas al Libi was grabbed from the Libyan capital in what one of the officials described as a "capture" operation from the Libyan capital. The U.S. operation was conducted with the knowledge of the Libyan government, a U.S. official said.
Reportedly the FBI participated in this capture with a U.S. Special Operations team. This makes sense, there is a long history of doing this, at least back to 1983. For our younger viewers, we were conducting counterterrorism operations long before 9/11.
http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/wanted_terrorists/anas-al-liby
Anas Al-Liby was indicted in the Southern District of New York, for his alleged involvement in the bombings of the United States Embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya, on August 7, 1998
http://www.nctc.gov/site/profiles/al_liby.html
Wanted Anas al-Liby has been indicted for his alleged role in the 7 August 1998 bombings of the US Embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya. The embassy bombings killed 224 civilians and wounded over 5,000 others. The following charges were filed: Conspiracy to kill US nationals, to murder, to destroy buildings and property of the United States, and to destroy national defense utilities of the United States.
Now the NYT reports, after a "leak" that:
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/world/africa/mall-attack-also-involved-kenyans-official-says.html?smid=tw-bna
The the post action 'leak' which as we know (from recent British experience) could well be paid for information from a military insider to the press.
More alarmingly in the report it says the “The attack was carried out by the American forces, and the Somali government was pre-informed about the attack.”
Is this an untrue sop to Somali sovereignty... or could the US have really learned nothing about OPSEC after all this time.
I put it to you that the last people who should know about any such operation is the Somali government.
JMA:
You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.
You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?
To further elaborate Carl, IMHO the key to long term success as opposed short term gains is to consider - in terms of the grand strategy - what the long term outcome would be as a result of arming village militias.
In the African context the thought of arming village militias makes the hair on my neck stand up. It is IMHO a racing certainty that there will be significant abuses - old scores settled (personal, tribal, religious) - not to mention the roaring trade in weapons and ammunition which will be created (much of which will most likely end up in the hands of the terrorists or other criminals).
Then one wonders if anyone has given any thought on how the weapons and ammunition could ever be recovered at some future date?
The problem that emerges is that the Nigerian military has significant limitations in terms of skills - much like we have seen of the Kenyan army - whereby their previous deployment methods are more of a display of what can be termed "brute force and ignorance" rather than any degree of subtlety or situation refined skills. Brute force and ignorance worked for the Nigerian military in Sierra Leone and Liberia but will not work internally - inside Nigeria - where a shoot first approach would not be readily accepted where the collateral damage would be Nigerian civilians (and not expendable others).
Exactly what message is that?
Let me expand on this...
It is claimed that the reported attack (of sorts) on a Shabab target in Baraawe has sent a signal to "them" that they won't forget.
Even (that opportunist) John Kerry has used the term (in a slightly different context).
Firstly (like after 9/11) the victims side are happy (at a most basic human level) that 'they' (the perps) are receiving payback. Understandable.
It was this primitive instinct that drove the post 9/11 rush to action (however misguided). A pity.
So often these emotionally driven knee jerk reactions do not have desired outcome. Nuff said.
Then often what the US and others carrying out the counter strike fail to factor in is what actual message is sent to the perpetrators - as opposed to the "that will teach them" after action feel good feeling among those who carried out the raid/response/etc.
Not to beat around the bush... I wonder if there are more than a handful (less than a dozen) in the US military that understand what action will send the right message to the African mind?
This almost certainly is not what non-Africans would consider 'the right message'.
In the case of Somalia IMHO the wrong messages have been consistently sent.
From the impotent response to Somali piracy to the use of inept proxy military forces (Kenya and Uganda) the message that has been sent has been a 'weak' one.
Don't take my word for it... speak to an African. Not an Uncle Tom who will tell you what he thinks you want to hear. Caution: you might not like what you hear.
Fuchs
10-06-2013, 01:49 PM
Did anyone else think "exceptionally attention-seeking urban guerrilla" when he read about the mall attack?
To further elaborate Carl, IMHO the key to long term success as opposed short term gains is to consider - in terms of the grand strategy - what the long term outcome would be as a result of arming village militias.
In the African context the thought of arming village militias makes the hair on my neck stand up. It is IMHO a racing certainty that there will be significant abuses - old scores settled (personal, tribal, religious) - not to mention the roaring trade in weapons and ammunition which will be created (much of which will most likely end up in the hands of the terrorists or other criminals).
Then one wonders if anyone has given any thought on how the weapons and ammunition could ever be recovered at some future date?
The problem that emerges is that the Nigerian military has significant limitations in terms of skills - much like we have seen of the Kenyan army - whereby their previous deployment methods are more of a display of what can be termed "brute force and ignorance" rather than any degree of subtlety or situation refined skills. Brute force and ignorance worked for the Nigerian military in Sierra Leone and Liberia but will not work internally - inside Nigeria - where a shoot first approach would not be readily accepted where the collateral damage would be Nigerian civilians (and not expendable others).
Thank you JMA. That is what I was looking for.
King JaJa, you are in Nigeria, what is your take?
In the case of Somalia IMHO the wrong messages have been consistently sent.
From the impotent response to Somali piracy to the use of inept proxy military forces (Kenya and Uganda) the message that has been sent has been a 'weak' one.
All human evil doers are held in check by violence, either the actual application of it or they are scared into submission by the prospect of the actual application. You gotta kill them or scare them into being good. We in the west mostly have enough layers between us and the point of contact that we forget that.
One of the things I learned from my brief time in Congo, the good old DRC, is that there are far fewer layers between the average guy and the above mentioned reality of life. The average guy is much less likely to pretend that the world works otherwise.
davidbfpo
10-06-2013, 05:14 PM
Did anyone else think "exceptionally attention-seeking urban guerrilla" when he read about the mall attack?
Yes, we invariably forget terrorism is a tactic which is armed propaganda.
I increasingly feel that much of the propaganda is aimed within the group, to maintain itself and to the tiny fraction who might just join them. Plus those who for a variety of reasons, including making a profit, provide support.
What is strange, maybe that is how Kenya works, is how such a symbolic target was ill prepared and the response appears to be so chaotic. It will be interesting to see how many attackers bodies are found and then matched to the video footage. Why? Because identification aside, how many escaped?
commart
10-06-2013, 05:29 PM
This might help clarify the role sadism plays in Islamist attacks: http://frontpagemag.com/2013/dawn-perlmutter/jihadist-ritual-murder-mutilation-at-the-mall/ The author of the piece pursues scholarship in psychology, symbols, and ritual violence.
This might help clarify the role sadism plays in Islamist attacks: http://frontpagemag.com/2013/dawn-perlmutter/jihadist-ritual-murder-mutilation-at-the-mall/ The author of the piece pursues scholarship in psychology, symbols, and ritual violence.
Is this a surprise to anyone? If so where have you been?
This sub-human behaviour is not purely carried out by Jihadists. Certainly across Africa mutilation and torture prior to killing the norm - time permitting.
I am rapidly getting to the point where I believe that western governments are deliberately keeping the general public uninformed on such matters in the misguided belief that it could cause a blacklash against so-called 'innocent' Muslims if the public knew.
Bill Moore
10-06-2013, 07:31 PM
Is this a surprise to anyone? If so where have you been?
This sub-human behaviour is not purely carried out by Jihadists. Certainly across Africa mutilation and torture prior to killing the norm - time permitting.
I am rapidly getting to the point where I believe that western governments are deliberately keeping the general public uninformed on such matters in the misguided belief that it could cause a blacklash against so-called 'innocent' Muslims if the public knew.
I suspect there is some truth to your claim about Western governments keeping their constituents in the dark, but the media is free to report on this, so I think the reality is that Western media is extremely liberal and these acts don't fit their preferred narrative that these are some form of freedom fighters battling the oppressive West.
The U.S. government has considerable means to tell the unpleasant truth, but for reasons that are not clear they choose not to.
jmm99
10-06-2013, 10:08 PM
In terms of US politicians, the 10 most prominent reasons for not being frank with the public on this issue are:
1. I have to say this (or not say that) to stay in office.
2. I have to say this (or not say that) to stay in office.
3. I have to say this (or not say that) to stay in office.
4. I have to say this (or not say that) to stay in office.
5. I have to say this (or not say that) to stay in office.
6. [Other Reason - Viewer's Option]
7. [Other Reason - Viewer's Option]
8. [Other Reason - Viewer's Option]
9. [Other Reason - Viewer's Option]
10. We have to protect American Muslims
More seriously, American politicians perceive that Americans have a zero risk tolerence for attacks here; Americans do not want to be reminded that there are man-eating human beings roaming this world; and that even minor attacks generate wide-spread panic states in Americans well beyond the actual effect of the attacks. The politicians may be accurate in their perception of the voters who elect and re-elect them.
My views on killing "bad guys" are well-known and set out in this thread, The Rules - Engaging HVTs & OBL (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=13239), and elsewhere at SWC.
From the OP (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=120615&postcount=1):
Comments on the practical military aspects of all this are welcome. Of course, if you think all of this Laws of War stuff is Bravo Sierra, you're welcome to say that.
The more I think about this event [killing OBL] - and the lesser cases of PIDs entering buildings "somewhere", I think of my dad saying not to send a patrol when you can send some 105s. My question is, if you have positive ID and know you will get the target by some kind of "fire mission", why not just eradicate the target if you want the target dead ?
To me, "bad guys" are still human. The savage traits (laid out in Dawn Perlmutter's Frontpage piece) have been well accepted in some otherwise very human societies of the 20th, 19th, 18th, 17th, 16th, 15th ... centuries. In short, we (human beings) have some very savage traits. They were survival effective (or at least not survival detrimental) in the "modern human" of 10,000 bce, or 250,000 bce, if you want to carry modern HSS that far back. So, it would be surprising if those savage traits did not appear in the 21st century among a "band of brothers" - a closed grouping in terms of ideology, whose most extreme features reinforce themselves into a very "we-they" psychology.
To paraphrase (as to the extreme ends of the "bands of brothers" spectrum): They were the best of men; they were the worst of men.
On to my views on some specific "gems" of mine - buried in much longer pieces - which I still believe.
On Beheadings
5-21-2009 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=72451&postcount=2)
Both the beheadings and hostage use (if evidenced - not always that easy) are war crimes. They are also typical of the AQ-Taliban way of war - they have their own LOAC (Law of Armed Conflict). You can verify that via many sources on and off line. For a quick overview, see at SWJ, The Erosion of Noncombatant Immunity within Al Qaeda (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/67-ciovacco.pdf?q=mag/docs-temp/67-ciovacco.pdf) [2008].
...
The media and many Americans are simply incapable of seeing AQ-Taliban for what they are - as determined by what they do. Those folks should assemble a group of beheadings videos - usually done according to the law and process adopted by AQ-Taliban - and watch them while dwelling on what they are watching.
10-12-2010 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=108827&postcount=6)
How should one class the beheading videos (having watched a few) in terms of reciprocity and the reasons for them ? I expect that is very much in the eyes of the beholder. In my own eyes, comparing them to what the Gurk did (based on our limited facts) suggests that he was guilty of a breach of etiquette.
and 10-25-2010 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=108840&postcount=14)
First, the facts, as stated from article:
His unit had been told that they were seeking a ‘high value target,’ a Taliban commander, and that they must prove they had killed the right man. The Gurkhas had intended to remove the Taliban leader’s body from the battlefield for identification purposes. But they came under heavy fire as their tried to do so. Military sources said that in the heat of battle, the Gurkha took out his curved kukri knife and beheaded the dead insurgent. He is understood to have removed the man’s head from the area, leaving the rest of his body on the battlefield.
Second, looking at these first facts from a Laws of War standpoint, the more appropriate COA (removal of the entire body from the field) was foreclosed by enemy fires. The Gurk, utilizing judgment in terms of the military necessity to ID the HVT, took an alternative COA to achieve that goal and complete his mission. [JMM !!]
On Not Being Terrorized
3-28-2009 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=69007&postcount=19)
Terror is an Effect
Terror, like its cousin Shock & Awe (and other "EBOs"), is subjective, based on the psychological reaction of the targeted population (an effect) to the violent event (the means). As such, it is essentially useless in classifying the means or the actor, either for legal or military purposes. One must concede that consideration of terror is important to the targeted population because, if a substantial segment of that population is terrorized, it will lose its resolve to resist and will be inclined to submit to the will of the attacker. Thus, the best tool to fight "terrorism" (or any other "EBO") is a targeted population that refuses to be terrorized, shocked or awed by the violent means used by the attacker.
9-12-2011 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=125625&postcount=16)
As to mindset, a starting point (and the ultimate defense against terrorism as a tactic) would be the civilian population's refusal to be terrorized. Soldiers accept risks in the field; civilians should also accept risks in this kind of conflict (the risks not being anywhere close to existential with respect to the civilian population as a group).
The Sermonette
9-16-2009 (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=82666&postcount=337)
This is my personal take, which I've had since 9/11.
1. We must expect attempts at violence in the US by AQ, either directly, via supported groups or by persons who are simply thinking in parallel with AQ.
2. So far, the violent incidents have been few (e.g., the DC snipers & the Arkansas shootings by "parallel thinkers"); and a number of plots have been foiled.
3. We cannot expect this successful record to continue without a serious incident happening. It will occur. Homeland security will not be perfect.
4. How people react will depend on the person. If you were terrorized by 9/11, you probably will be terrorized by the event which will surely happen. If you were intensely angered by 9/11 without feeling terrorized, the same emotion will probably flow from that event.
5. I (and every US citizen, for that matter - some will disagree with this), since 9/11, have sent hundreds of thousands of guys and gals into situations where they don't have our at home luxuries and are subject to far greater risks than we have at home. So, it is time for the homeland to grow up about risks of violence.
6. I don't suggest we adopt the mentality of a herd of prey stalked by predators. But, I do suggest that, besides the logical COA to arrest or kill when we can, we realize that AQ (as it presently stands) is not an existential threat to the US. It is simply a threat.
End sermonette.
Regards
Mike
More seriously, American politicians perceive that Americans have a zero risk tolerence for attacks here; Americans do not want to be reminded that there are man-eating human beings roaming this world; and that even minor attacks generate wide-spread panic states in Americans well beyond the actual effect of the attacks. The politicians may be accurate in their perception of the voters who elect and re-elect them.
Mike:
This is accurate if you limit it to perceptions of politicians and to the sensibilities of superzips (Charles Murray's superzips), specifically the liberal establishment mass media elites (thank you Mike Rosen). I don't think it applies to the flyover people that make up the Americans.
Us flyover people pretty much know or strongly suspect there are beasts out there, having worked with them here, been robbed or beaten up by them here or chased them down and seen their work over there. The passengers in the back of the airplane so to speak, are combat vets, EMTs, rocket scientists, historians, DAs, cops, docs and many are parents. The Americans can take whatever is thrown at them, but they have to be leveled with.
The superzips on the other hand, live lives so insulated from the hard edge of existence they don't really believe it exists and don't want to be reminded of it. It is my opinion that it isn't the Americans that have a zero tolerance for attacks or casualties, we don't. We take whatever comes and go on. But the superzips can't, and because they can't they figure the rest of us can't and act accordingly. The politicians, many of the old line (from both parties) ones anyway are an integral part of superzipistan. The other zips are their peers and their true constituents. They play to them and so we get what we get.
I don't and haven't thought there is anything wrong with us, the Americans. There is something horribly wrong with our leadership class and how we select them.
I like the sermonette and think that if you asked, most of us flyover people would agree. The zips won't though.
jmm99
10-07-2013, 12:59 AM
Yup, we SuperUnZips (and, yes, remember I made you an honorary Yooper :D) have a different take from most in the Beltway. So, note my artful phrasing :):
The politicians may be accurate in their perception of the voters who elect and re-elect them.
We then have to ask: who elects these folks ? I would like to agree with you on this being fact:
This is accurate if you limit it to perceptions of politicians and to the sensibilities of superzips (Charles Murray's superzips), specifically the liberal establishment mass media elites (thank you Mike Rosen).
But, the fact remains that the SuperZips and Political Elites are not sufficient to swing national elections. They are necessary, but not sufficient to elect and re-elect the politicians of the Beltway.
While "flyover country" has a plethora of good people - and I live in something of a blessed nature preserve, the fact has been that many "flyover people" have elected and re-elected those schmucks that each of us (in his own way) have been decrying for decades.
While it may be comforting to believe that there is a "silent majority" out there - completely opposed to the SuperZips; that "silent majority" (if it does exist) is simply not showing itself in the election returns.
Regards
Mike
PS: The reasons for making Carl an honorary Yooper is that he used to fly into our weather-forsaken airports; and used to go out with a gal from IIRC Suomi College (now Finlandia University). The last took real courage. :eek:
M-A Lagrange
10-07-2013, 07:59 AM
Target Of U.S. Raid In Somalia Called A Top Attack Planner
A Kenyan intelligence official of Somali origin says that the "high-value terrorist leader" whose residence was targeted in Saturday was the senior al-Shabab leader Abdikadir Mohamed Abdikadir, alias Ikrima.
Ikrima is a Kenyan of Somali descent who boasts connections to both al-Shabab in Somalia and to a Kenyan jihadist group called al-Hijra. Kenyan authorities announced on Friday that two of the four terrorists killed in the were al-Hijra militants.
[...]
A leaked Kenyan intelligence report confirms that Ikrima was plotting "multiple attacks" inside Kenya, "sanctioned by al-Qaida" in Pakistan, and "involving financial and logistical support from South African operatives." The report continues:
"By December 2011, the planners had acquired safe houses in Nairobi & Mombasa, trained the executors, received explosives from Somalia and commenced assembly of and concealment of explosives."
According to the report, Ikrima's small "terror cell" included two British nationals: an explosives expert named Jermaine John Grant and the infamous White Widow, Samantha Lewthwaite. (Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta had confirmed that a "British woman" may have been among the fighters in Westgate Mall.)
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/10/06/229889835/kenyan-official-names-alleged-target-of-seal-raid-in-somalia
Main target seems accurate. For the rest, usual caution with intelligence leaks are to be observed.
davidbfpo
10-07-2013, 09:38 AM
This might help clarify the role sadism plays in Islamist attacks: http://frontpagemag.com/2013/dawn-perlmutter/jihadist-ritual-murder-mutilation-at-the-mall/ The author of the piece pursues scholarship in psychology, symbols, and ritual violence.
I am not an expert, let alone well read on the presence of sadism in Jihadist violence, but this passage simply did not sound truthful:
The Westgate Mall massacre is comparable to the mass murder of 166 people by members of the Islamist Jihadist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, in ten coordinated shooting and bombing attacks across Mumbai, India on November 26 -29, 2008. During their siege operation the LeT Jihadists also took the time to sexually humiliate, torture and mutilate some of the victims before shooting them dead.
So I contacted an Indian friend, a Mumbai resident, who officially investigated the attacks and is "in the know". He responded:
There was no "ritualistic" killing, no "beheading" and no rape in Mumbai. The gory details carried on this web site did not happen here. They did not carry any knives. They did not even mutilate the Jews in Chabad House". All they did was to open fire indiscriminately on innocent civilians.
Several of the victims in Nairobi were from India or of Indian origin. Had there been any mutilation or slaughter of children, Indian press would have published.
The Indian police charge sheet, which details what property was recovered and no such weapons are shown (I have a copy).
I do not doubt mutilation has happened, for example in London, but the author is wrong about Mumbai and I suspect such violence did not occur in Nairobi.
davidbfpo
10-07-2013, 10:46 AM
Clint Watts asks 'Was Kenya Westgate Attack More AQAP/AQ Central Than Shabaab?'. Link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=1164
omarali50
10-07-2013, 04:13 PM
About the Gurkha beheading: this is one of the big reasons why so many prominent targets were beheaded in the good old days. In a world without photographs, taking the head to someone who knew him was the surest way of confirming that the deed had indeed been done. When Yazid's Ummayad forces killed Hussain at Karbala (now remembered as the central event in Shia historical memory), they beheaded a person who was, after all, the beloved grandson of the holy prophet of Islam. This was not just (or even mainly) an expression of their barbaric nature. It was the norm to cut off the head of the rebel and take it to the emperor for inspection, confirmation and reward.
When Aurangzeb overthrew his dad and killed his brothers to become the Mughal emperor of India, one brother (Shuja) escaped to Myanmar. He was apparently killed in a skirmish there, but no one brought back a head (to the Raja of Arakan, whose people killed him; or to Aurangzeb, who was not directly involved in that skirmish). As a result, rumors of his return unsettled Aurangzeb's officials for years. ..Much better for the imperial government if that head had been cut off and brought for display.
omarali50
10-07-2013, 04:17 PM
About ritual mutilation in Mumbai; I dont recall any such event either. The attack itself was barbaric enough (shooting unarmed innocent people while casually walking through the railway station..those images are more shocking to me than ritual mutilation). I wish psyops geniuses did not feel the need to add these details. I have never really understood why the truth (in this case, the willingness of some groups to randomly kill completely innocent unrelated people for the sake of their "cause") is not enough.
Then again, maybe I am just too naive.
jmm99
10-07-2013, 04:46 PM
Ms Permutter, of Symbol & Ritual Intelligence (http://www.symbolintelligence.com/) (apparently its only key figure), formerly "The Institute for the Research of Organized & Ritual Violence", founded in 2001 -
Symbol & Ritual Intelligence specializes in the research, analysis and investigation of symbolic and ritual violence. Specific areas of expertise include; unfamiliar cultural traditions, ritual activities, religious terrorism, desecration controversies, ritual murder, and the identification of symbols, artifacts and unusual practices. What distinguishes Symbol & Ritual Intelligence from other institutes is our concentrated study of images and the application of symbolic methodologies for use in law enforcement. We can assist you in identifying emblems, tattoos, colors, graffiti, clothing, ritual objects, etc. of hundreds of gang and terrorist organizations. We produce specialized charts, intelligence reports, and group bulletins from our unique perspective.
branched off from philosophy (in which, she has a PhD) into satanic and occult ritual crimes (big back in the 80s and 90s), and after 9/11 into Islamist ritual crimes.
As to these subjects, she wrote Investigating Religious Terrorism and Ritualistic Crimes (http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9780849310348) (2003):
•Presents over 100 illustrations of signs and symbols to look for at crime scenes that indicate ritual practice
•Includes background and investigation techniques for crimes involving religion-based terrorism
•Details domestic and international terrorist religions
•Provides organizational structures of large clans and covens, membership and recruitment policies, and homicide case studies
•Offers intelligence strategies inclusive of indoctrination techniques, negotiation and prosecution strategies, and advantages of understanding religious violence
•Examines types of criminal profiling and provides a crime classification system to distinguish between types of ritual homicide
and True Believers: A Symbolic Anthropological Study of Islamist Culture (http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9780849310348) (tbp 2014):
•Includes detailed descriptions of the use and origins of Islamist loaded words, embedded symbols, and collective rituals used in indoctrination and psychological warfare
•Demonstrates how honor and shame is utilized to inculcate children, recruit moderates, train soldiers, and motivate violence
•Includes descriptions of specific rituals and burial rites related to martyrdom operations that can assist in preventing suicide attacks and the investigation of previous attacks
•Explores the use of overt and subliminal messages in Islamist communications, cartoons, advertising, music, and videogames
•Provides a detailed symbolic analysis of honor killing, beheadings, suicide attacks, dismemberment, and other Islamist atrocities.
•Explains the disproportionate violent responses to Quran desecration and how Islamists exploit these and other incidents
•Explores the difference and significance of tribal and rational societies
•Demonstrates the impact of Islamist conspiracy theories for indoctrination, recruitment, and propaganda
•Illustrates the significance of Muslim victimhood for Islamist strategic and psychological operations
•Features full color photos
I haven't read either book; nor do I intend to. I have read her 2006 article, Mujahideen Blood Rituals: The Religious and Forensic Symbolism of Al Qaeda Beheading (http://www.anthropoetics.ucla.edu/ap1102/muja.htm) (obviously the title rings my feeding time bell), which concludes (in snips):
It is difficult to remain in denial when there is actual proof of ritual murders and not just remnants of the crime scene. The American public is all too familiar with images of violent murder. What the public cannot accept is the fact that these beheadings are communally sanctioned and religiously justified. These are not violent crimes committed by psychopaths or a form of group hysteria; beheading, suicide bombing, and ritual mutilation are the sacred blood rituals of the Holy warriors of Islam. This is a highly organized community that consistently and proudly professes their ideology, values, and goals and persistently identifies themselves as Mujahideen. They do not hide the fact that they are fighting a holy war and that they have a religious imperative to kill Christians, Jews, and unbelievers. All we have to do is listen to what they are telling us.
...
The media is fond of using the word "desecration," particularly in reference to Islamic beliefs. Desecration is a sacred concept, and although we are supposedly not fighting a holy war, the word "desecration" has made headlines quite frequently; desecration of the Quran, desecration of enemies’ bodies, and desecration of mosques. We are hypersensitive to what Muslims hold sacred even when it jeopardizes our national security and puts soldiers’ lives at risk. We are not going to be defeated by terrorism but we will be defeated by political correctness unless we stop sugarcoating the sacred nature of this war. There are many people who recognize the implications of this religious threat; however, not one politician will acknowledge that we are involved in a holy war. It would be political suicide to announce that this is not a war on terrorism but a war on Islam.
...
True believers are the most dangerous enemies. You may be able to get a soldier to fight and die for his country in battle, but you would be hard pressed to find one willing to strap on C-4 attached to a vest full of nails and ball bearings and commit suicide as a walking claymore mine. Mujahideen are lining up for this duty. These holy warriors are willingly blowing themselves up because they have faith. As a consequence of our Western view of the world and standard behavioral science analysis of crime, we fail to see the nature of these true believers. Al-Qaeda has already won the most important strategic battle; they know their enemy, but we are in denial of their religious imperative to annihilate us. Our worst opponent is not the Mujahideen, it is our refusal to acknowledge that we are fighting soldiers of God in a centuries-old holy war.
Nothing in these snips is that much different from what I've said; but I worry about Ms Perlmutter's facts. That is, is she taking (esp. as in the current Frontpage article) killings by Muslims - not part of a jihadist organization - and using them to amplify the acknowledged killings by jihadist organizations ? And, is she amplifying the Mumbai killings (and perhaps other events she cites) by adding non-facts ?
Personally, if I were to hire someone to advise me on jihadist killings, I'd hire someone like Scott Atran (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Atran) from the Univ. of Michigan (http://sitemaker.umich.edu/satran/home) (includes his scientific and popular pubs), who's played that game at the major league level, with such as Marc Sageman, etc., Theoretical Frames on Pathways to Violent Radicalization (http://www.artisresearch.com/articles/ARTIS_Theoretical_Frames_August_2009.pdf) (2009).
Regards
Mike
omarali50
10-07-2013, 05:51 PM
btw, re my comments above, I did not mean to deny that Jihadists indulge in horrific ritualized violence (like beheadings and displaying the heads on white sheets), see (if you wish, I did not actually see the video, but have seen others like it in the past) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ApPcCqCPa8&bpctr=1381167244
But I just think it should not be necessary to make up stories if they did not happen.
What is happening and has happened is bad enough.
Yup, we SuperUnZips (and, yes, remember I made you an honorary Yooper :D) have a different take from most in the Beltway. So, note my artful phrasing :):
Mike:
I did note your artful phrasing but plunged on regardless. The temptation to mount my soapbox was irresistible.
But, the fact remains that the SuperZips and Political Elites are not sufficient to swing national elections. They are necessary, but not sufficient to elect and re-elect the politicians of the Beltway.
While "flyover country" has a plethora of good people - and I live in something of a blessed nature preserve, the fact has been that many "flyover people" have elected and re-elected those schmucks that each of us (in his own way) have been decrying for decades.
While it may be comforting to believe that there is a "silent majority" out there - completely opposed to the SuperZips; that "silent majority" (if it does exist) is simply not showing itself in the election returns.
Regards
Mike
All true. There may not be a wise silent majority anymore. An unspoken tactic of the zips is to make an alliance with the takers of the country in order increase and retain their power. That is most often seen in big cities. But there may be more hope than we think. I believe there are still a number of people who could be takers who refuse to because of personal values, Cinderella men and women. And it takes time for people to take action after they have woken up. There is quite a transition going on in the GOP right now that may be a manifestation of that. The states are always the places where the real political action is in the US and a lot that is hopeful is happening in the states. We'll see I guess.
I have an honorary Yooper card that I got from another friend. I am very proud to have had that honor conferred upon me by two real Yoopers. (The card does say that I'm not allowed to move there though.)
Fuchs
10-08-2013, 01:38 AM
About ritual mutilation in Mumbai; I dont recall any such event either. The attack itself was barbaric enough (shooting unarmed innocent people while casually walking through the railway station..those images are more shocking to me than ritual mutilation). I wish psyops geniuses did not feel the need to add these details. I have never really understood why the truth (in this case, the willingness of some groups to randomly kill completely innocent unrelated people for the sake of their "cause") is not enough.
Then again, maybe I am just too naive.
I don't think that professional PsyOps strategy is behind this.
The last decade shone some light at some prevalent depth of human nature.
Many people are mixing racism, authoritarianism, timidity, their desire to be knowledgeable (while being too stupid and/or lazy to actually acquire knowledge, thus they make #### up and insist others are clueless for they disagree), some despicable fantasies and other dirt from the bottom together.
The outcome is a flood of such made-up nonsense.
I suppose this is not new; 9/11 merely added a new fashion to the phenomenon.
The more I look at the world, the more I become convinced that time is overdue for a pile of good books about cognitive psychology on my desk.
M-A Lagrange
10-08-2013, 07:50 AM
Two interesting articles on the Westgate and the SEAL raids.
First one is on the “white widow”. It is now almost certain she did not participate and the media frenzy around her involvement has been prompted by a lack of info and, as usual, the need for a scoop!
White Widow merely person of interest in Nairobi mall probe
AS FAR as the security officials in Kenya are concerned, Samantha Lewthwaite, the Northern Irish woman popularly tied to the Somali extremist group al-Shabaab, is merely a person of interest and not wanted for September’s mall siege in Nairobi that left dozens dead and many more injured. Having been first linked to the attacks by the British media, the link became so compelling that it was carried around the world as fact.
The Sunday Independent got the correct Lewthwaite angle: we should be worried about what the news of her fake South African passport will do to this country’s bid to reassure the world at large that its passport-issuing system is reliable.
Home Affairs Minister Naledi Pandor has assured the nation that the department had a handle on the situation as far back as 2011, when it cancelled the fraudulent passport.
"It was reported that Lewthwaite bought passports for her and her two children in Durban from convicted fraudster Ehmed Chisty for R60,000. The Sunday Independent was reliably informed that home affairs has been searching for three men who have been running ID schemes across the city similar to Chisty’s, raking in between R50,000 and R120,000 for each ID," the paper reported.
http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2013/10/08/white-widow-merely-person-of-interest-in-nairobi-mall-probe
And a very detailed inside of the SEAL raid:
Somalia SEAL Raid Ended by Children Used as Shields
In a corroborating report, NBC News described how SEALs were able to enter the al-Shabaab compound, take the positions required by their planning, and even watch one of the terrorists take a cigarette break. But that same al-Shabaab fighter may have spotted the SEALs, because he came back out with an AK-47 and fired on the SEALs. The mission quickly escalated into a firefight, with the SEALs encountering intense fire with both guns and grenades. An unidentified official told CNN that, “Once it became clear we were not going to able to take him, the Navy commander made the decision to withdraw.”
CNN and NBC had both received word from U.S. officials that the decision to end the Somalia raid was prompted by seeing children, used as human shields, being moved out of the fortified seaside stronghold the SEALs were attacking.
SEALs were actually able to see Ikrima through the compound’s windows, but when children came into their scopes, the threat of hurting them prompted the team’s withdrawal. The tactical situation for these members of SEAL Team Six, the same unit that killed Osama bin-Laden, was also disintegrating, and they evacuated via the beach.
http://guardianlv.com/2013/10/somalia-seal-raid-ended-by-children-used-as-shields/
Bill Moore
10-08-2013, 08:36 AM
I am not an expert, let alone well read on the presence of sadism in Jihadist violence, but this passage simply did not sound truthful:
So I contacted an Indian friend, a Mumbai resident, who officially investigated the attacks and is "in the know". He responded:
The Indian police charge sheet, which details what property was recovered and no such weapons are shown (I have a copy).
I do not doubt mutilation has happened, for example in London, but the author is wrong about Mumbai and I suspect such violence did not occur in Nairobi.
David,
Unfortunately based on personal observation of several bodies in Iraq and a few elsewhere that were mutilated by Jihadists that indicates to me at least some, and I suspect a minority, do engage in mutilation for whatever purpose. Shifting to your comments on Mumbai, a lot of people from several nations investigated the attacks in Mumbai, so pardon me for being suspect of your friends apparent all knowing assumptions. He may very well be correct, but the jury is still out in my opinion. The latest I read on the Jewish victims, which were the only victims in Mumbai that were possibly tortured was their bodies were too badly mutilated to tell. I saw photos and it appears their bodies were mutilated by explosives. If I recall correctly, hard to believe the attacks were 5 years ago now, the reason the torture was suspected was based on the directions the terrorists were received from Karachi that was intercepted. Even if they did cut their throats, that isn't exactly torture in my view, it is just murder, but getting back to your friends comments none of the terrorists died at that site, so not having knives on them is hardly justification to rule out they didn't use a knife (perhaps for the Indian version of Sherlock Holmes that suffices as evidence of innocence). For example, a group of thieves could break into my house and tie me up, and then grab a knife from my kitchen or elsewhere and slice my throat, and then leave the knife at my house and continue on their killing rampage. I doubt any western investigator would rule they couldn't have cut my throat because they didn't have a knife on them when they were killed or captured. I'm simply throwing out a counter argument to reinforce what Fuchs pointed out, which is that the truth is elusive, which leads to ignorance.
The information coming out of Nairobi is still terribly confusing, the only thing that remains clear is that several innocents were murdered by terrorists, and possibly several more were killed by the so called security forces. The number of attackers according to open source reports ranges from four (apparently all that was seen in the videos) to 15 to as high as 30! It has been several days since the attack and the reporting is still mixed. Sometimes what passes for the truth doesn't emerge until years after the event.
After reading the Selected Wisdom post it seemed to be a lot of uninformed rambling about nothing. Al Shabaab has been a multinational terrorist network for years, and they also have been an insurgency force (even longer). Contrary to all the reports of Al-Shabaab being on their last leg, they remain one of the more dangerous Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist networks (even if their insurgency efforts were rolled back). We struggle too much to try to fit loose networked organizations into our desired view of organizations with a formal structure, and this results in a continued misdiagnosis or classification. We think we know how to defeat formal organizations, but loose networks are much harder to understand since they constantly adapt and are also very resilient. We seem to want to claim victory prematurely simply because African Union forces pushed Al-Shabaab out of the major urban areas in Somalia, yet they still exist and they still have the will and capability to fight, so making claims like they're on their last leg only sets us for disappointment when we find they're far from it. Instead of making such wishful comments, we should pursue the momentum the AU created and continue to aggressively target them until they're sufficiently suppressed. Furthermore, there is no reason to think they conducted this attack on the mall on their own, since the various terrorist networks around the globe mutually support each other to varying degrees, but on the other hand it may been conducted by homeboys from Kenya. It wouldn't surprise me if actors as far away as Pakistan and Yemen were involved (neither are that far away). Much too early to tell at this point, but whatever the truth is, it shouldn't be surprising, since all are credible probabilities.
http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/al_shabaab.html
Al-Shabaab is not centralized or monolithic in its agenda or goals. Its rank-and-file members come from disparate clans, and the group is susceptible to clan politics, internal divisions, and shifting alliances. Most of its fighters are predominantly interested in the nationalistic battle against the TFG and not supportive of global jihad. Al-Shabaab’s senior leadership is affiliated with al-Qa‘ida and is believed to have trained and fought in Afghanistan. The merger of the two groups was publicly announced in February 2012 by the al-Shabaab amir and Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of al-Qa‘ida.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/05/world/africa/somalia-us-shabaab-raid/index.html?iid=article_sidebar
Washington (CNN) -- A pre-dawn raid by elite U.S. forces in southern Somalia, in the heart of territory controlled by the al Qaeda subsidiary Al-Shabaab, targeted an Al-Shabaab commander connected to one of the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings, a senior Obama administration official said Sunday.
The suspected foreign fighter commander is named Ikrima, a Kenyan of Somali origin about whom little is known. The official said Ikrima is associated with two now-deceased al Qaeda operatives who played roles in the 1998 bombing of the U.S. embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, and the 2002 attacks on a hotel and airline in Mombasa, also in Kenya.
Not only do they have American, British, and Kenya recruits:
http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-somalia-raid-20131008,0,4926499.story
According to Norway's Channel 2, Ikrima had traveled to Norway in 2004 and sought political asylum while living in Oslo. He received travel documents but left in 2008 before authorities had ruled on his asylum request. Two Swedes whom he met in Norway later joined him at Shabab training camps in Somalia, the TV station said, adding that a Swedish member of the Shabab was killed in the SEAL raid Saturday.
Morten Storm, a Dane who said he has worked for several Western intelligence agencies, told CNN that he helped pass messages between Ikrima and Al Qaeda leaders in Yemen between 2008 and 2012.
Ikrima communicated directly with Anwar Awlaki, the American-born Al Qaeda leader in Yemen who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2011, about going to Yemen but never made the trip, Storm said. Instead Ikrima, who speaks Norwegian, became a key handler of Shabab recruits from the West.
Sargent
10-08-2013, 04:43 PM
Well, one could say that OEF was misdirected. Still, there has not been another attack, not just because one group of attackers was disrupted and scattered, and because huge investments were made in security, but also because those states capable of hosting and organizing a really serious group of attackers are now scared of the consequences. Deterrence may have been possible at much less cost, but that is a separate issue. Some deterrence was undoubtedly created by that response..and organized groups with serious and capable backers are still (at least somewhat) scared. Otherwise, they would have tried something by now. Or at least, taken very few steps to prevent an operation being carried out by crazier, smaller, less-sane groups.
There were 8 years between the two WTC attacks. In between there were smaller acts outside of CONUS. AQ has been very active around the globe in the past decade, and have successfully diversified the operational entities into multitudes of wholly owned subsidiary actors. As for sponsorship, I'm not sure I understand exactly who is afraid of whom, but I don't see AQ and the related entities suffering for a lack of safe havens. Finally, the investment in security will, as ever, be gotten around soon enough.
We have done a whole lot with force and not really changed or improved the situation - and given the time and financial resources expended, this is troubling. We have done blessed little in other areas comparatively, and we certainly haven't done much to understand why there is such permissive support for the animosity towards the West. And that, my friends, is why we are in no better place than 13 years ago. Shame.
Jill
omarali50
10-08-2013, 04:52 PM
I think the point at which leverage can be applied most cost-effectively is at the level of state supporters of terrorism. They have the most to lose. If no organized state is supporting them, then their future remains dark. Where were the attackers organized, trained and rehearsed? They cannot achieve much out of truly ungoverned spaces like Somalia. If every organized state is afraid of hosting or training them, they will eventually lose.
That is a big IF.
We have done a whole lot with force and not really changed or improved the situation - and given the time and financial resources expended, this is troubling. We have done blessed little in other areas comparatively, and we certainly haven't done much to understand why there is such permissive support for the animosity towards the West. And that, my friends, is why we are in no better place than 13 years ago. Shame.
Jill
Omar is right. Organized states are the critical node, one that we basically refuse to address. Flat out refuse. It is no wonder that the situation doesn't change, even perhaps worsens over time, when Osama is found where he was found and we don't change how we deal with Pakistan.
As far as AQ, their affiliates and all the other crazy Wahabi takfiri killers go, the Pak Army/ISI keeps them going. We know it, the takfiri killers know it, the world knows it. Yet we do nothing. You're right. We should be ashamed.
Bill Moore
10-08-2013, 09:41 PM
Omar is right. Organized states are the critical node, one that we basically refuse to address. Flat out refuse. It is no wonder that the situation doesn't change, even perhaps worsens over time, when Osama is found where he was found and we don't change how we deal with Pakistan.
As far as AQ, their affiliates and all the other crazy Wahabi takfiri killers go, the Pak Army/ISI keeps them going. We know it, the takfiri killers know it, the world knows it. Yet we do nothing. You're right. We should be ashamed.
Important but overstated. Do the Mexican cartels need state support, or do they have the ability to co-opt individuals within the government? Is ISI the state? Or are we they an organization beyond control of the state? State support for terrorists can be a powerful enabler but it is not essential for terrorists to operate. It is more likely states will syndicate with terrorists when they have common interests.
Important but overstated. Do the Mexican cartels need state support, or do they have the ability to co-opt individuals within the government? Is ISI the state? Or are we they an organization beyond control of the state? State support for terrorists can be a powerful enabler but it is not essential for terrorists to operate. It is more likely states will syndicate with terrorists when they have common interests.
Not overstated at all. The Mexican cartels are not trying to take over the government. They are only after the getting the gov off their backs so they can do business. If they really and truly tried to take the gov down, they would darn well need support from outside because they wouldn't last long otherwise. Mexican history shows those guys don't fool around when things get serious.
The Pak Army/ISI is the government. They aren't beyond the control of anybody. The ISI is part of the Pak Army (check out what assignments Kayani had) and the Pak Army runs the outfit along with the feudal elites. If whoever is the putative head of the government calls up the army and asks for the resignation of the army head, the ISI head and the corps commanders, he won't be the putative head of the government for long.
Of course state support for terrorists isn't essential for them to operate. That isn't what I referred to. The Tsarnaev brothers didn't have state support but they didn't last long either. Big league persistent outfits have it though, or they wouldn't be big league persistent outfits. Common interests? I don't know. It's not important. The Pak Army/ISI backs all sorts of takfiri killers. We know it and don't do a damn thing about it. That's important.
Bill Moore
10-10-2013, 08:55 AM
I am not an expert, let alone well read on the presence of sadism in Jihadist violence, but this passage simply did not sound truthful:
So I contacted an Indian friend, a Mumbai resident, who officially investigated the attacks and is "in the know". He responded:
The Indian police charge sheet, which details what property was recovered and no such weapons are shown (I have a copy).
I do not doubt mutilation has happened, for example in London, but the author is wrong about Mumbai and I suspect such violence did not occur in Nairobi.
It is a fact that some Islamists torture and mutilate their victims, but it does not seem to be a common practice. What I don't know is if it is part of a ritual based on religion or just sick behavior conducted by a few? I'll go a step further and wonder if they're actually more humane than many others we have fought to include Saddam's relatively secular forces, the Vietnamese, Japanese, Germans, Soviets and their proxies, etc.? Putting it in context the incidents of Islamists torturing their victims pales in comparison to the Cartels in Mexico, the Mafia in Italy, numerous communist insurgent groups, and of course the Nazis and Japanese practicing the unspeakable on an industrial scale, etc. On the other hand I am still concerned with the apologists for the Islamists in the media. It seems people can pick the news they want to reinforce their view (savage killers or something far from that), but the truth is getting harder and harder to come by in our so called information age (maybe more accurately the disinformation age). What little I could find on potential torture in the mall is still very questionable.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/02/world/africa/kenya-mall-attack-shabaab-warning/index.html
Members of Kenya's government were mute about what they had seen inside after emerging from an inspection there earlier this week.
CNN learned that the Westgate mall attackers tortured some of the hostages.
Military doctors said militants severed hands, cut off noses and, in some cases, hanged hostages. CNN has seen photographic evidence of one dead victim with a hand amputated.
http://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play?p=were+bodies+mutilated+in+the+Westgate+Mall&vid=55bed82e53a01f795fa56432d0412fe6&l=1%3A38&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DV.49 06150846464112%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DOQ VQVmpTAr4&###=Details+Reveal+Mall+Attackers+Brutality&c=1&sigr=11au32cp8&back=http%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%3Fei%3 DUTF-8%26p%3Dwere%2Bbodies%2Bmutilated%2Bin%2Bthe%2BWes tgate%2BMall%26fr%3Dyfp-t-900&sigb=131n69kbc&ct=p&age=0&&tt=b
CNN Video briefly discusses potential torture/maiming during the attack and claims to have photographic evidence, but of course not provided.
My research on Dawn Perlmutter exposes little new JMM didn't already point out, except I did look at the reviews of her book on Amazon and the majority of reviews were one star reviews based on her lack of knowledge on the topic.
M-A Lagrange
10-14-2013, 07:24 AM
If we believe the Kenyan security agencies:
Security agencies worry about new terrorist threats in Kenya
Kenyan and Western security services are racing against time to foil new planned terror attacks in Kenya barely three weeks after the Westgate attack.
Much of the investigations are now focused on the underground activities of a shadowy militant organisation called Al-Hijra, led by Sheikh Iman Ali, a Kenyan preacher now hosted by al-Shabaab in Somalia.
...
“We in the EU are aware of the threats posed by Al-Hijra and its affiliates. The new plots are grave and warrant a lot of attention, but we have no intention at this stage to elevate them into a full-blown travel alert. We are sensitive to Kenya and its economic needs and we are all working together to foil possible future attacks,” a senior European diplomat told the Sunday Nation.
...
“Westgate was a complex operation that was carried out with low-tech means and certainly much more difficult to detect or disrupt than the iconic suicide bomber. It is also much easier to replicate,” Matt Bryden, a regional analyst and director of Sahan Research, told the Sunday Nation
...
“There have been extensive arrests in Kenya, on the border with Somalia, and even as far as Uganda and Tanzania. I believe good progress is being made. But we must complement these measures by strengthening our capacity; improving our intelligence gathering and law enforcement systems and improving co-operation with the public.”
...
“Al-Hijra has been under surveillance for a number of years and the Kenyan state has accumulated enough intelligence on its ideological leaders to disrupt the movement. For some reasons, there is reluctance to provide classified intelligence to the law enforcement agencies for effective prosecutions. And this ought to change.”
http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2013/Oct/41551/security_agencies_worry_about_new_terrorist_threat s_in_kenya.aspx
SWJ Blog
11-29-2013, 06:56 PM
###-For-Tat: Kenya, Somalia, and the Resurgence of al-Shabaab (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/###-for-tat-kenya-somalia-and-the-resurgence-of-al-shabaab)
Entry Excerpt:
--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/###-for-tat-kenya-somalia-and-the-resurgence-of-al-shabaab) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
davidbfpo
12-10-2013, 09:20 PM
No real surprises here IMHO in a breathless story:
.. simple, its effective and easy to copy (much later)....counterterror operatives are looking at a world that appears more frightening every day.....At the end of the day, these days, terror’s just another word for a few guys with guns.
Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/12/10/inside-the-nypd-s-report-on-the-kenya-shopping-mall-massacre.html
I would ask does such reporting in fact amplify the effect of terror?
No real surprises here IMHO in a breathless story:
Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/12/10/inside-the-nypd-s-report-on-the-kenya-shopping-mall-massacre.html
I would ask does such reporting in fact amplify the effect of terror?
Breathless? A sense of an almost pornographic thrill imagining what might happen? In creating that thrill, amplifying the effect of terror? From an American dominant liberal establishment mass media writer? Naw, ain't never gonna' happen.
jmm99
12-11-2013, 06:49 AM
Long one (http://christopherdickey.blogspot.fr/2013/10/wolves-at-westgate-stunning-special.html?spref=tw) and short one (http://christopherdickey.blogspot.fr/2013/10/watch-it-while-you-still-can-wolves-at.html) gave me a better idea of what happened. A 4-man fire team - what if a section of 4 fire teams had been there ?
Regards
Mike
Maybe more difficult to infiltrate the additional numbers (people, weapons and ammo) without drawing attention.
The end result is that they achieved their aim, got away with it and exposed the Kenyan military as being something like the Keystone Cops.
Long one (http://christopherdickey.blogspot.fr/2013/10/wolves-at-westgate-stunning-special.html?spref=tw) and short one (http://christopherdickey.blogspot.fr/2013/10/watch-it-while-you-still-can-wolves-at.html) gave me a better idea of what happened. A 4-man fire team - what if a section of 4 fire teams had been there ?
Regards
Mike
Bill Moore
01-01-2014, 06:25 AM
Interesting insights from the NYC police report on the Westgate Mall attack that adds insult to injury.
http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/10/21849660-only-four-shooters-at-kenya-mall-and-they-may-have-escaped-alive-says-nypd?lite
Only four shooters at Kenya mall and they may have escaped alive, says NYPD
According to the NYPD’s reconstruction of events, the four attackers operated in two-man teams and coordinated their movements by cellphone. After throwing three grenades and entering the mall, they used AK-47s in single-fire mode to shoot their victims. More than one-third of the dead were attending a children’s cooking contest that was being held in tents in the mall’s roof parking lot. The attackers killed them within 15 minutes of arriving at the mall.
The report said the attackers had grenades and several hundred bullets in eight magazines, but no body armor, handguns or heavy weapons. They did not try to take hostages, but killed as many victims as they could, sparing some who could recite Muslim prayers or name the Prophet Mohammed’s mother. A Russian hand grenade was found on the roof with the pin removed but unexploded.
trooper
01-07-2014, 03:26 PM
Follow this link http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R43245_20131114.pdf to the CRS titled The September 2013 Terrorist Attack in Kenya:
In Brief...good background material.
davidbfpo
01-09-2014, 07:22 AM
An op-ed in the NYT by a Kenyan community worker and worth a read, familiar themes, so no surprises.
It ends with:
If we pursue an antiterrorism strategy based on tactical strikes, it will only further a cycle of violence. The perpetual sense of anger experienced in urban poverty will ensure that there are always new terrorist leaders to replace those who are killed. The war on terror can be won only through education, promise and real opportunities.
It is time to give young men like my friends, and like those today living in urban slums, hope. That is the only way to end the violence that preys on our cities’ most vulnerable.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/09/opinion/terrorisms-fertile-ground.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_ee_20140109&_r=0
Bill Moore
03-10-2014, 07:45 AM
The trail for the Al-Shabaab supporters during the WestGate Mall attack is ongoing in Kenya, but sufficient details haven't been released in the media yet from the trail to do even a cursory analysis based on the testimony. What I did find interesting was the number of terrorist attacks in Kenya since that attack that received little or no media coverage in the West. Since terrorists thrive on media coverage I see that is a positive. To be expected, Kenya's ongoing crackdown on potential Islamic terrorists may over reach and generate anger with Muslims who were previously not associated with extremism. Also, still reports coming out about torture, but nothing credible as of yet. One would assume if it was the case it would come out in testimony. Finally, Business Insider interviews a member of Al-Shabaab in Somalia who provides a lot of insider detail on the planning for the attack. If true, there is a lot that hasn't made main stream media yet, and probably won't with the more pressing issues of Ukraine, the missing Malaysian Airline, Syria, etc., but this is important.
Is Kenya's proactive approach over stepping?
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2014/0219/Will-Kenya-mosque-assault-radicalize-Muslim-youths
Will Kenya mosque assault radicalize Muslim youths?
Demand is high in Kenya to route out radicals and stop extremism since the Al Shabab attack on Nairobi's Westgate Mall. But there's growing concern that heavy handed tactics may backfire.
However it started, police stormed the religious structure with boots on and began firing tear gas and live bullets at youth, some of whom fought back with knives. After a melee that captured national attention, police arrested 129 people, including 21 minors, some only 12 years old. Dozens were injured, and rioting continued for days as wounded succumbed to injuries. By Feb. 6, seven Muslims and one police officer lay dead.
To be sure, Kenya’s security forces are under great pressure to deal with a resurgence of terror. In the months since Westgate, there’s been a deadly bombing on a Nairobi public bus, a blast at Nairobi’s international airport, and numerous grenade attacks have maimed civilians around Mombasa, including in a popular beach resort town.
Testimony at the trial.
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-03-06-westgate-mall-terrorists-argued-over-shooting-children
Westgate mall terrorists argued over shooting children
Kotia then told the court that one of the attackers said "we Mujahedeen don't kill small children and women".
But seconds later another gunman said "but you have been killing our children and women in Somalia" and the shooting resumed.
http://www.worldbulletin.net/news/130092/kenya-adjourns-trial-of-somalis-on-westgate-mall-attack-updated
Kenya adjourns trial of Somalis on Westgate Mall attack-UPDATED
"The suspects were not at Westgate on 21st September when the terrorist attack occurred," defense lawyer Mbugua Mureithi told Anadolu Agency on Monday.
"They have never been to Westgate. And they don't know the people who attacked Westgate. So there is no connection between the suspects I am representing and those who attacked Westgate."
The following interview covers more than Westgate Mall, but the first of three pages focuses on how that planned and supported the attack. Accuracy can't be verified, but many of the claims are logical, a few seem to be simply boastful.
http://www.businessinsider.com/al-shabaab-westgate-al-qaeda-20-2014-2?page=1
First They Attacked A Mall, Then They Repelled SEAL Team Six: The Rise of Al Qaeda 2.0
Law enforcement has been eager to paint the attackers as an amateurish group of opportunists who took advantage of lax security at the mall. By contrast, Jamal told me the attack had been under discussion for three years, since the African Union Mission to Somalia, AMISOM, which includes troops from Kenya, Ethiopia and several other African nations, initiated an incursion, known as Operation Linda Nchi, into Southern Somalia in an effort to drive Shabaab militants from the area.
Jamal confirmed that only four gunmen entered the mall on Sept. 21, as Kenyan officials later determined by examining closed-circuit video footage. But he added that the reason the attack was so successful and lasted so long is that other members of al Shabaab were already positioned inside, having infiltrated the Westgate as vendors, bribing police and mall security to look the other way.
First They Attacked A Mall, Then They Repelled SEAL Team Six: The Rise of Al Qaeda 2.0
Again a politically driven military operation carried out in haste that fails and not only brings the skill and professionalism of the special forces involved into doubt/question ... but probably more importantly offers AQ a propaganda coup on a golden platter.
Bill Moore
03-11-2014, 01:09 AM
Again a politically driven military operation carried out in haste that fails and not only brings the skill and professionalism of the special forces involved into doubt/question ... but probably more importantly offers AQ a propaganda coup on a golden platter.
I hope no one in the military would call SOF capability into question over one operation that wasn't successful. The nature of high risk ops is that they're high risk and failure is a possibility. Yes a propaganda victory for Al-Qaeda but one for us also.
Bill,
We are not talking about anyone in the military here we are talking about the propaganda value of such an operations failure to the enemy.
Some civies seem to understand that:
Failed Navy SEALs raid on Somali target could bolster Al Shabab (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2013/1006/Failed-Navy-SEALs-raid-on-Somali-target-could-bolster-Al-Shabab-video)
Was this a high risk op? I suggest that the haste in which it was undertaken led to the failure.
Help me understand what you see as being a US propaganda advantage arising from this failure?
I hope no one in the military would call SOF capability into question over one operation that wasn't successful. The nature of high risk ops is that they're high risk and failure is a possibility. Yes a propaganda victory for Al-Qaeda but one for us also.
Bill Moore
03-11-2014, 08:36 AM
No propaganda for us from its failure, but from demonstrating we know who they are, where they are, that we have the military capability to strike globally, and that we have the will to do so.
While the title of the article was drama queenish, the article didn't focus on the raid, but Al-Shabaab overall. Don't mind discussing this elsewhere, but I don't want to sideline the discussion focused on the Westgate Mall attack.
I understand your point about propaganda value, that is a risk. Imagine the propaganda value to Al-Qaeda if the raid on UBL would have failed? It is risk that is considered as part of planning. I have no insight if the raid on Somalia was carried out in haste and if that contributed to its failure or not. On the other hand, a lot of our targets are not static, and our ability to respond quickly to perishable information on the target is essential in today's fight.
No propaganda for us from its failure, but from demonstrating we know who they are, where they are, that we have the military capability to strike globally, and that we have the will to do so.
That would be propaganda value only if lessened their will and determinstion. There has been little evidence that it has.
That is so mainly I think because while they have little doubt about our knowing who they are, where they are, and that we can strike wherever; I think they have grave doubts about our long term will. A SEAL raid that they defeated isn't going to impress them.
Amendment to the above: I got to thinking, we don't know for sure who pulled off the Westgate Mall attack and we sure as heck don't know where they are. So that doesn't leave us much to impress them with.
SWJ Blog
05-10-2014, 03:20 PM
The Lay-Out of Westgate Mall and its Significance in the Westgate Mall Attack in Kenya (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-lay-out-of-westgate-mall-and-its-significance-in-the-westgate-mall-attack-in-kenya)
Entry Excerpt:
--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-lay-out-of-westgate-mall-and-its-significance-in-the-westgate-mall-attack-in-kenya) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
davidbfpo
06-07-2014, 08:15 PM
Clearly much has happened in Kenya since the last post in 2012. There is a seperate post on the September 2013 Westgate Mall attack (also a SWJ article):http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=19047
An older one on a previous attack in 2002 has been merged in.
davidbfpo
06-07-2014, 08:20 PM
A Kenyan student now @ Kings Collerge, with NGO experience, has a short article 'Learning from the neighbours: How to win Kenya’s war on terror'. It is of value as it is by a Kenyan:http://strifeblog.org/2014/06/07/learning-from-the-neighbours-how-to-win-kenyas-war-on-terror/
By looking at comparative efforts made by Uganda and Ethiopia to scuttle terrorist activities this paper points to the need for the entire overhaul of the Kenyan security system to effectively address the terror problem in Kenya. Kenya can borrow from Uganda and Ethiopia in an effort to reduce the threat of terrorism.
AdamG
06-16-2014, 01:52 PM
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Dozens of extremists wielding automatic weapons attacked a small Kenyan coastal town for hours, assaulting the police station, setting two hotels on fire, and spraying bullets into the street. At least 48 people were killed, officials said Monday.
The assault in Mpeketoni began around 8 p.m. local time on Sunday night as residents were watching World Cup matches on TV and lasted until early Monday, meeting little resistance from Kenya's security forces.
At the Breeze View Hotel, the gunmen pulled the men aside and ordered the women to watch as they killed them, saying it was what Kenyan troops are doing to Somali men inside Somalia, a police commander said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to share that detail of the attack.
Authorities blamed al-Shabab, Somalia's al-Qaida-linked terror group, who have vowed to carry out terror attacks to avenge the Kenyan military presence in Somali. Along with its Somali fighters, the group also has many Kenyan adherents.
http://news.yahoo.com/police-48-killed-terror-attack-kenya-town-063232220.html
A mob of armed gunmen linked to the Somalia's Al shabaab militia have shot dead more than 26 people in a night of terror in Mpeketoni town 300kms from Mombasa.
Our Malindi Reporter who was caught in the shooting say a group of gunmen of Somali origin started spraying the car their were traveling in with bullets.
"They were so many and they were shooting all over and throwing grenades on everything they saw in their wake. I have never seen anything like it," said our reporter Alphonce Gari.
He could not establish immediately the number of those killed in the attack because he had not yet reached the epicenter of the shooting in Mpeketoni town.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201406160273.html
KingJaja
06-16-2014, 07:46 PM
Just wondering how this will all end. Kenya was once known for the Mau Mau - & if the non-Muslim community is further provoked, terrible things could happen.
Do you guys think Al Shabab is deliberately trying to provoke a religious war in Easr Africa? It seems that is what the ISIS is trying to do in Iraq. Perhaps all these groups are set on pushing until hell breaks loose.
davidbfpo
06-16-2014, 11:17 PM
Do you guys think Al Shabab is deliberately trying to provoke a religious war in Easr Africa? It seems that is what the ISIS is trying to do in Iraq. Perhaps all these groups are set on pushing until hell breaks loose.
No, not a religious war, although that is topical and maybe a thought. Far more valuable is to ensure the large Somali diaspora, including refugees, many living in the Nairobi suburb of Eastleigh, shift allegiance towards them or are neutral.
Wiki shows Kenyan relious affiliation as:
Christianity 82.5% and Islam 11.1%....Some sources suggest the number of Muslims in Kenya between 35% and 45%.
According to the 1989 Kenyan census approximately 900,000 ethnic Somalis live in Kenya..from atotal polpulation of 38.6 m. [/URL]Although provisional results from the 2009 census reported a much larger number of over 2.3 million Somali residents, they are believed to be inaccurate due to inconsistencies in the gathered data.[URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalis_in_Kenya#cite_note-Kaacrc-2"] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalis_in_Kenya#cite_note-Ktcdosn-1)The figure has consequently been nullified for an official recount.
This FP article is germaine to this discussion:
VOICE : Why Are Africa's Militaries So Disappointingly Bad? (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/06/why_are_africa_s_militaries_so_disappointingly_bad _kenya_nigeria_boko_haram_al_shabab)
... both armies have botched key domestic interventions when crises hit, exposing weaknesses that raise fundamental question marks about operational reliability.
and this:
"The West has this model of a disciplined, neutral army that stands on the sidelines, independent of domestic politics," explains Jakkie Cilliers of the Pretoria-based Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS). "But the African model is of a military that is used internally and is part and parcel of domestic politics and resource allocation."
The question really revolves arround what military operations are possible within the capabilities of the respective armies.
(This post has also been made in the Nigerian thread)
l-Shabab claims new deadly attack in Kenya (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/06/al-shabab-claims-new-deadly-attack-kenya-201461782915271188.html)
Al-Shabab fighters have killed at least 15 people in a second night of attacks on Kenya's coast, barely 24 hours after an attack near the coastal town Mpeketoni left at least 48 people dead, according to Kenya's interior minister.
However, a spokesman of the Somalia-based armed group claimed on Monday to have killed 20 people, mostly security officers, in the overnight attack on Poromoko, a village located between the city of Mombasa and the Kenyan border.
Kenya attacks: 'Women abducted' near Mpeketoni (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27882084)
At least 12 women were abducted during the latest attack on Kenya's coast, which also left 15 people dead, residents have told...
and again - similar as in Nigeria:
President Kenyatta said ... the police in Mpeketoni were given advance intelligence about the attack, but did not act on it.
"Accordingly, all concerned officers have been suspended and will be charged immediately in a court of law," he added.
KingJaja
06-29-2014, 12:07 PM
The problem in Africa is that there are two many "second order effects". It is impossible to know "in what direction the wind will blow". A combination of tribalism, corruption, poor governance & unemployment makes for a potent brew.
The Sunday Nation can now reveal that the youth, numbering about 3,000, trained at Manyani Kenya Wildlife Society (KWS) Training School before being moved to Archer’s Post in Samburu three years ago, have now become a security nightmare for Kenyan authorities. They are the new soldiers of fortune who are spreading terror in Kenya.
A retired KDF major who is now a security expert, Mr Bashir Abdullaiah, said that the plan, though noble, was bound to fail from the start.
“The plan was good. Train Somali youths and not Kenyans to create a buffer zone between Kenya and Somalia. However, it was infiltrated by Kenyans who received this training and later filtered back into the population and back to their families. Kenya should have handled it the way Ethiopia did to the ones they trained; put them under the command of their military so that you can monitor them long after the war. These people are today roaming and killing people in parts of Kenya,” said Major (rtd) Bashir.
According to people, including religious leaders, the Sunday Nation spoke to, the youths have been used by the highest bidders in many conflicts and attacks including the recent intra-clan attacks where 20 people were killed in Wajir on Monday.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Abandoned-KDF-war-boys-return-to-unleash-terror/-/1056/2365486/-/x1yjqcz/-/index.html
Red Rat
06-29-2014, 01:33 PM
Do you guys think Al Shabab is deliberately trying to provoke a religious war in Easr Africa? It seems that is what the ISIS is trying to do in Iraq. Perhaps all these groups are set on pushing until hell breaks loose.
There are definitely ethnic tensions on the ground. Predominantly caused by the growth and expansion of the Kikuyu away from their traditional tribal areas, including their move to areas of East Kenya. This move is perceived within Kenya as partly driven by a desire to load constituencies in favour of Kenyatta for the next election.
Governor Timamy of Lamu County who was arrested in relation to the attacks is an ethnic Bajuni and the BBC report (below) gives some good background. My sources concur with:
"Most of the people killed in the attacks were ethnic Kikuyus. Mr Timamy is an ethnic Bajuni, an indigenous group from Lamu County. Many of the native communities have had long-standing differences with members of the Kikuyu community, who they say came to the area and "took over their land"."
BBC World Kenya Attacks Report (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28045161)
The current spat with the UK over military training in Kenya is also seen as being closely linked to Kenyatta protecting his Kikuyu constituency and their links with the Khat trade.
davidbfpo
07-03-2014, 01:37 PM
A report based on a human rights NGO report, which in places take one's breath away, but this is Africa:
Of the 1,868 Kenyans who died from gunshot wounds between 2009 and 2013, 1,252 – or 67 per cent – were killed by a police officer. That proportion changed little during the five years the researchers studied.
For 63 per cent of those deaths, police failed to report details of the circumstances of the shooting. No reason was given as to why the officer opened fire in 68 per cent of cases.
The story wonders aloud what impact UK aid has had:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/kenya/10941227/Kenyans-five-times-more-likely-to-be-shot-dead-by-police-than-by-criminals.html
AdamG
07-03-2014, 03:10 PM
Lamu, Kenya: A driver who claims he was hijacked by the gunmen behind last month's killings in Mpeketoni has been charged with killing 12 of the victims. It was a dramatic reversal of fortunes for Diana Salim Suleiman when he was hauled before a judge in a Mombasa Court yesterday to plead to 12 murder charges as his lawyers protested that the prosecution was trying an innocent man. Following his arrest, Diana has maintained that he was hijacked on June 15 by gunmen posing as passengers on the Malindi-Lamu Road, who forced him to drive to Kipini, Lamu County. He claims he was beaten by his captors who robbed him of his matatu and abandoned him in the bush.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thecounties/article/2000126853/hijacked-driver-charged-with-killing-12-in-mpeketoni
SWJ Blog
09-23-2014, 01:02 PM
Unpacking the Anatomy of the Mpeketoni Attacks in Kenya (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/unpacking-the-anatomy-of-the-mpeketoni-attacks-in-kenya)
Entry Excerpt:
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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/unpacking-the-anatomy-of-the-mpeketoni-attacks-in-kenya) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
davidbfpo
12-08-2014, 11:29 PM
Africa works in different ways. A detailed report and explanation for the inter-communal, heavily armed cattle rustling in the Northern Frontier District:http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/How-cattle-warlords-are-fuelling-violence-in-the-restive-north/-/2558/2543210/-/item/0/-/k78drm/-/index.html
davidbfpo
04-06-2015, 12:04 PM
The BBC today reported that:
The attack on Garissa University, about 150km (90 miles) from the Somali border, was the deadliest by al-Shabab in Kenya.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32194722
It is noteworthy that the longer attack and siege at Westgate Mall, in Nairobi, September 2013, was far more accessible for the media and so attracted far greater external reporting.
The BCC and local media have been critical of the security forces response, citing the BBC:
Kenya's government has denied accusations that its security forces were slow to respond to Thursday's assault on the university.Mr Kenyatta's spokesman Manoah Espisu told the BBC that the military was at the scene within minutes of the attack, and had helped save the lives of many students on campus.
Local media reported that it took special forces several hours to arrive at the university because of delays in their flight from the capital, Nairobi.
This local report explains why the Recce team, the primary urban SWAT, from the GSU (a police paramilitary unit), took so long to arrive, but note shortly after deployment their snipers shot dead four of the five attackers:http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Shame-of-slow-response-in-15-hour-campus-terror/-/1056/2676432/-/13wgdjy/-/index.html
The Guardian has a good, lengthy commentary by a Kenyan journalist, entitled 'Are the terrorists of al-Shabaab about to tear Kenya in two?':http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/04/kenya-university-massacre-shabaab-divisions
He highlights:
The biggest danger, though, is that the two sides of Kenya will simply drift apart. The string of attacks by al-Shabaab has triggered the flight of dozens of non-Muslim professionals from the north-east. After a massacre of bus passengers in November (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/23/kenya-bus-attack-survivor-tells-how-gunmen-selected-their-victims), the teachers’ union ordered members not to report to work after the Christmas holidays.
There is a main Kenya thread (in the Horn of Africa arena), into which this thread is likely to be merged:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=14771&page=8
davidbfpo
04-06-2015, 03:38 PM
Another commentary on events by a Kenyan student living in the USA at the moment; the title suggests a wider viewpoint than Kenya 'Kenya: Five Things About Al-Shabaab and the Somalia Question':http://kenopalo.com/2015/04/03/kenya-five-things-about-al-shabaab-and-the-somalia-question/
davidbfpo
09-21-2015, 02:24 PM
An update from FP on the Westgate attack:http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/20/nairobi-kenya-westgate-mall-attack-al-shabab/?
Some new details, mainly on the individual experiences; the lack of an effective Kenyan state response is well known. I had missed this:
Westgate is in the heart of a Kenyan-Indian part of the city, and the close-knit community there knew better than to rely on the authorities to send help. Instead, the call went out to the community’s own licensed gun holders, who were organized into self-appointed armed neighborhood watch units.
In the USA the role of 'first responders' is well known, in Kenya it was different:
Instead, an ad hoc volunteer rescue mission had begun to take shape, comprising a motley crew of uniformed, plainclothes, and off-duty police and licensed civilian gun holders......two plainclothes armed officers: two Muslims, a Hindu, and two Christians. All Kenyans.
davidbfpo
02-09-2017, 08:12 PM
A "broad brush" article on the COIN / CT campaign underway in part of rural north-east Kenya, on the border with Somalia:
Tucked into the northeast end of the country’s coast, the Boni National Reserve is a fairy-tale paradise, a resplendent ecosystem packed with elephantine baobab trees and hydra-headed doum palms. This mix of riverine forest and swampy grassland is home to some of the country’s largest herds of game...Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/02/08/big-game-u-s-soldiers-secret-hunt-for-jihadists-in-a-kenyan-forest.html
Surprised to read this, yet another 'wall':
Kenya is building a 435-mile Western-funded security wall at the nation’s eastern border. On a visit to Kenya last year, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.....committed funds to the project.
AdamG
09-01-2017, 11:16 PM
August 18th 2017
Suspected Al-Shabaab fighters have beheaded there people and torched houses in dawn attack on Maleli Village of Witu in Lamu.
Villagers and sources on the ground put the figure at four but County Commissioner Gilbert Kitiyo told the Nation that the report he had received indicated three.
12.30AM
Mr Kitiyo said he had dispatched a contingent of police officers to pursue the attackers.
The gunmen struck at around 12.30am Friday as the villagers slept, according to witnesses.
Armed to the teeth, they targeted men as they spared women and children, villagers told the Nation.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201708180732.html
AdamG
09-01-2017, 11:20 PM
July 2017
Al-Shabaab extremists from neighbouring Somalia beheaded nine civilians in an attack on a village in Kenya, officials said, adding to growing concerns that the Islamist militant group has taken up a new strategy.
The attack occurred on Saturday in the village of Jima, south-east Kenya, said James Ole Serian, who leads a task force of security agencies combating al-Shabaab, which is linked to al-Qaida.
Beheadings by al-Shabaab have been rare in Kenya even as the group has carried out dozens of deadly attacks over the years. Beheadings are not uncommon in Somalia, where the group carries them out on people who are believed to be their enemies and to terrorise local populations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/08/nine-kenyans-beheaded-by-somali-al-shabaab-terrorists
AdamG
09-01-2017, 11:21 PM
February 2017
The global economic downturn hindered recovery, then terror attacks by the Islamic extremist group al-Shabaab began to escalate in 2011. Al-Shabaab struck Mombasa several times and along the coast to the city’s north, prompting strict travel warnings from Western governments.
The U.S. and U.K. lifted travel bans for government staff last year, but the U.S. State Department continued to preach caution in a new warning in 2015, citing “potential terrorist threats aimed at U.S., Western and Kenyan interests.”
To counter the rise of al-Shabaab, Kenyan authorities launched aggressive counterterrorism operations in Muslim communities. The cycle of attacks and government retaliation have created new waves of fear around#Diani, as many in the tourism industry here say that Kenyan Christians are now wary of becoming targets on the coast.#
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/shaken-by-terrorism-this-kenyan-resort-became-a-ghost_us_5898d5e4e4b061551b3e0188
davidbfpo
09-03-2017, 12:27 PM
Kenya has many problems, including a predicting doubling of its population and of course its politics. As shown in this BBC News report:
The president of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, has said his country has "a problem" with its judiciary after the Supreme Court cancelled his victory in last month's presidential election.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41136478
Away from the cities Aidan Hartley, a white Kenyan farmer and journalist, has a regular column in 'The Spectator' and his latest column is about the election contest locally. No wonder Kenya has problems.
Link:https://www.spectator.com.au/2017/09/kill-kill-yelled-the-mob/
Al-Shabaab is one problem, it might not even the main problem for Kenya's politicians.
AdamG
05-07-2018, 12:46 PM
In Kenya's Maasai Mara National Reserve, a small team of rangers equipped with thermal imaging cameras and drones are fighting back against an onslaught of heavily-armed poachers.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/anti-poaching-technology-conservation-maasai-mara
AdamG
01-15-2019, 10:38 PM
This was a temporary separate thread until merged on 29/1/2019 into the main thread (it had eights posts with 300 views). Might it turn into another Westgate Mall (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westgate_shopping_mall_attack) Charlie Foxtrot.
Suspected militants have attacked a luxury hotel complex in Nairobi, killing a number of people.
Gunfire and blasts were heard at the compound in the Westlands district of the Kenyan capital, which houses the DusitD2 hotel as well as offices.
The Somalia-based militant group al-Shabab said it was behind the attack.
People, some covered in blood, were led out of the complex by police. Late on Tuesday the government said all buildings had been secured.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46880375
AdamG
01-16-2019, 12:47 AM
(CNN)CNN journalists near the hotel complex in Nairobi that was attacked Tuesday are still hearing intermittent gunfire from the location, hours after the government gave the all-clear.
At least 11 people have been killed during what police described as a "suspected terror attack" at the complex in the Kenyan capital, said a source at the hotel assisting with security.
The source called the death toll "conservative" and expected it to rise: "I saw six dead on the footpath exit over the river and five more at the secret garden cafe."
A US State Department official said an American was killed in the attack, and provided no other details. CNN is reaching out to officials from other nations to see whether any of their citizens are among the victims.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/15/africa/kenya-shooting-nairobi-hotel-intl/index.html
AdamG
01-16-2019, 12:50 AM
The AK-47 appears to be brand new.
A CCTV footage has now emerged showing how four heavily armed attackers stormed the 14 Riverside Drive Dusit2 hotel. The footage shows three of the gunmen dressed in black tops with green vests and Ak47 rifles. In the footage, the suspected terrorists are seen signalling one another to take different positions as they fired indiscriminately to anyone on sight.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019/01/15/cctv-reveals-how-gunmen-stormed-dusit-hotel_c1878512
AdamG
01-16-2019, 03:55 AM
DAMN SKIPPY! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZIVphczMbY)
Mystery Pirate Patch-Wearing Special Operator Jumped In To Help Kenyans During Hotel Attack
Images of the individual show them with weapons, gear, and other items associated with American or British special operations forces.
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/25987/mystery-pirate-patch-wearing-special-operator-jumped-in-to-help-kenyans-during-hotel-attack?fbclid=IwAR19V5-P2ISFQRkTRQFnpf5KBuquHGWBAMq3RWipBb4d8WVRa77NNUBV9 tc
davidbfpo
01-16-2019, 09:15 AM
The SF operator appears in the BBC footage too:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-46881687/nairobi-dusit-hotel-attack-explosions-gunfire-and-rescue-operation
davidbfpo
01-16-2019, 12:57 PM
Citing an anonymous insider The Sun (UK) reports and later BBC News:
The “long serving” member of the SAS – motto Who Dares Wins – was on a mission to train and mentor Kenyan Special Forces when four terrorists attacked a hotel complex....a lone SAS soldier got tooled up and went in after a request for help from Kenyan security forces....He was pictured operating at the hotel alone. But he was joined in the mission by US Navy Seals
Link:https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8207170/nairobi-hotel-attack-kenya-sas-terrorists/
(https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8207170/nairobi-hotel-attack-kenya-sas-terrorists/)
davidbfpo
01-16-2019, 01:12 PM
A topical commentary on Al-Shabaab in Somalia, two good maps of activity in 2017 and 2018. This comment explains why they retain popular support:
Al Shabaab’s attacks make headlines, but the al Qaeda group offers something real to local Somalis. Perhaps incredibly, the group provides more efficient and less corrupt governance than the Somali Federal Government in some areas. Many Somalis prefer (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/06/this-is-why-al-shabaab-wont-be-going-away-any-time-soon/) al Shabaab’s justice over the Somali courts—even traveling (https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-people-warned-against-seeking-justice-in-al-shabaab-courts) from government-controlled areas to al Shabaab-held areas to seek justice (https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-people-warned-against-seeking-justice-in-al-shabaab-courts). Al Shabaab courts deliver a verdict faster and are more likely to enforce it. This benefit allows al Shabaab to maintain support and attack zones, despite U.S. airstrikes.
Link:https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/fight-against-al-shabaab-isnt-over? (https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/fight-against-al-shabaab-isnt-over?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=zimmerman)
This post will be cross-posted on the main Somalia thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?26407-Somalia-(land-amp-sea)-2018-onwards
Kenya has its own thread, where thsi thread will e merged one day:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?14771-Kenya-(catch-all)
AdamG
01-19-2019, 03:47 PM
Citizens carrying arms - whatta concept.
Kenya plans to allow many more private security guards around the country to carry firearms following a deadly attack by Islamic extremists in Nairobi. The Kenyan government agency monitoring private security says the goal is to enhance the guards' ability to protect the public because they are often the first responders before state security forces can get to the scene.
The Private Security Regulatory Authority made the announcement on Friday, three days after attackers laid siege to the dusitD2 hotel, shopping and office complex.
A security company confirmed that two employees were killed in the attack. Authorities plan a vetting process to expose any suspected criminals within security companies before guards are licensed to have guns. Currently, very few private guards in Kenya are allowed to carry guns.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/private-guards-kenya-carry-guns-extremist-attack-60488079
davidbfpo
01-20-2019, 12:18 PM
IMHO a good review of why, although from a faraway armchair/ It ends:
Yet again, Kenya has suffered a big loss and as its people come to terms with this week's events they will wonder why it has to take catastrophe for more lessons to be learned.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46921249
davidbfpo
02-07-2019, 04:56 PM
A rare descriptive article on African urbanization and in The Daily Telegraph too. The dilemma is acute now, let alone in the future:
Slum life is therefore overcrowded, wretched, dangerous and — because of high levels of unemployment — often violent. With many African cities now consisting of increasingly prosperous pockets surrounded by vast swathes of resentful indigence, political insecurity is also a risk.
Link:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/nairobi-slum-reveals-vast-challenges-facing-africas-megacities/? (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/nairobi-slum-reveals-vast-challenges-facing-africas-megacities/?WT.mc_id=e_DM940594&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_nSub&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_nSub_2019_02_07&utm_campaign=DM940594)
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