View Full Version : France, incl. terrorism & counter-terrorism (catch all)
AdamG
12-29-2010, 10:48 PM
PARIS – There's no French James Bond. But a new push may set the stage for one.
France's secretive international spy agency, the DGSE, is recruiting hundreds of people and getting a budget boost, despite frugal times, to better fend off threats like terrorism and nuclear proliferation. France's answer to the CIA is buffing its image as well, with its first-ever spokesman and a new website.
The move follows hostage-takings abroad, bomb scares at the Eiffel Tower and fallout from WikiLeaks' publication of secret U.S. diplomatic cables.
France is also set to ban face-covering Islamic veils, which has roiled Muslim extremists around the world and drawn threats from Al-Qaida.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_france_investing_in_spies;_ylt=AtkKcPuRumJTcRPp aJA6VGys0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTQwNHQ0dGk2BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIw MTAxMjI4L2V1X2ZyYW5jZV9pbnZlc3RpbmdfaW5fc3BpZXMEY2 NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwM0BHBvcwMxBHB0A2hvbWVf Y29rZQRzZWMDeW5faGVhZGxpbmVfbGlzdARzbGsDZnJhbmNlc3 NweXNl
AdamG
12-30-2010, 12:06 AM
France's foreign intelligence service DGSE has announced that it was able to get proof that its spy who has been kept hostage in Somalia is alive.
Named Denis Allex, the spy was kidnapped and taken hostage in 2009 by an Islamist separatist group. Hope appeared when he was able to send reply to a personal question sent to him by the agency.
They were doing so just to check whether he is alive or not. Sources who gave this news said that while no details have been given by the captors about his well being, they are sure that the person is still alive and in his senses.
No further details were revealed. However, the source informed that negotiations are still going on.
http://frenchtribune.com/teneur/102733-french-spy-believed-be-alive-somalia
Kevin23
03-20-2012, 04:03 PM
Over the past few days there has been a series of shooting's that have occured around Toulouse as well as elsewhere in Southwestern France.
The attacks at the moment appear to be commited by only one indivdual, and they have first targeted French military personnel mainly of African or Black origin. And yesterday there was a shooting at a Jewish school in the region that killed several people including teachers & schoolchildern.
The motives or even who the shooter might be is unknown at this time other then it probably is only one person. This comes at a bad time in France politically because of the French Presidental race.
Initial thoughts were focused on Islamic extremists committing these acts, but the police are also equally looking at the possibilty that Neo-Nazi's or other's on the right-right might be behind this. As well the possibilty that it could just be a lone nutcase with no agenda other then harming other people.
There is nothing else to suggest the motives of this gunman, other then the occupations or ethnicty of the victims, which in the latter aspect could only be concidental in the case of the French military personnel shot.
This is an interesting series of incidents though.
Any thoughts on it?
http://www.france24.com/en/20120320-france-mourning-amid-massive-manhunt-jewish-school-killer-toulouse
M-A Lagrange
03-20-2012, 06:02 PM
Initial thoughts were focused on Islamic extremists committing these acts, but the police are also equally looking at the possibilty that Neo-Nazi's or other's on the right-right might be behind this. As well the possibilty that it could just be a lone nutcase with no agenda other then harming other people.
In France, at least in the media I read, initial thoughts were just incomprehension and shock in front of such barbarian act. From all communities and religious groups.
Those tragic events are taking place during the presidential campaign. It is occuring after French politicians had several quite radical speetch.
I hope this will bring some decency in this campaign.
AdamG
03-20-2012, 06:19 PM
The French consider the official end of the Algerian War to be on 19 March 1962 - fifty years ago to the day. Wonder if there's a tie-in?
AdamG
03-20-2012, 08:10 PM
Focus fell Tuesday on three paratroopers who had been expelled from their regiment near Toulouse in 2008 for neo-Nazi sympathies, a police official said. The killer on Monday handled large-caliber guns with expertise, leading some to suspect he had a military or police background.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57401008/france-shooting-probe-focuses-on-paratroopers/
Kevin23
03-20-2012, 10:22 PM
In France, at least in the media I read, initial thoughts were just incomprehension and shock in front of such barbarian act. From all communities and religious groups.
Those tragic events are taking place during the presidential campaign. It is occuring after French politicians had several quite radical speetch.
I hope this will bring some decency in this campaign.
I understand campaigning has been quite heated in the country with Sarko desperate to win another term. However, from I hear the right(esp.the FN led by Marie Le Pen) has been quite tame in terms of their rhetoric?
I.e. they haven't attacked the groups that have fell victim to the violence over the past week?
davidbfpo
03-20-2012, 11:23 PM
Focus fell Tuesday on three paratroopers who had been expelled from their regiment near Toulouse in 2008 for neo-Nazi sympathies, a police official said. The killer on Monday handled large-caliber guns with expertise, leading some to suspect he had a military or police background.http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57401008/france-shooting-probe-focuses-on-paratroopers/
I heard / read that these three have already been arrested and excluded from the investigation.
Earlier today much was being made of the murderer wearing a high risk sports camera on his chest, as recommended by a Mr Brevik,
M-A Lagrange
03-21-2012, 06:11 AM
It is too early, as I post to tell what is really going on.
A man who claims to be a "salafist" is tranched in a house and RAID (swat team) are conducting an assault, right now.
According to internal security minister, the man said he wanted to advenge the children of Palestine.
May be... It just does not make any sense. If it is him, he killed without distinctions muslim, catholic, jews, arabs, black, white, adults and children.
I hope they get him alive so he will have to face the justice of Men and see there is no escape.
Bill Moore
03-21-2012, 06:20 AM
Time will tell, but heard on a news program yesterday that the attacks were four days apart and if the pattern continues the next attack will be on Thursday (local time in France), so I'm sure the police are out in full force trying to pre-empt the next attack. If I recall I believe this was also a Muslim holiday, but can't recall which one.
M-A Lagrange
03-21-2012, 08:00 AM
Some precisions on the suspected killer are coming out.
He is 24 years and has been travelling in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He is Muslim and claims to be salafist and close to AQ.
That said, there are still no proof he is part of AQ. He is part of the people who are under security services surveillance and was part of the several suspects after military were assassinated.
Apparently he received support from a member of his familly but it has to be confirmed.
Extreme Right candidate is already trying to take advantage of this event. :eek::eek:
davidbfpo
03-21-2012, 09:41 AM
A developing situation and quite a full story:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17446999 and the rolling news report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/17455224
The man, named as Mohammed Merah, 24, a Frenchman of Algerian origin, has said he belongs to al-Qaeda and acted to "avenge Palestinian children"....They say the suspect was arrested in Kandahar, Afghanistan, in 2010 for unspecified, but not terrorist-related, criminal acts and also has a criminal record in France.
This is a classic:
The suspect's mother, who is Algerian, had been brought to the scene, but Mr Gueant (Interior Minister) said she had refused to become involved as "she had little influence on him".
M-A Lagrange
03-21-2012, 10:07 AM
According to the news coming from France, the killer acted alone, despite claiming being part of AQ.
He is known of the police because of a dozen of criminal records. He apparently went radical under the influence of a radical islam group.
The representative of the Jewish of France has called to avoid any amalgame between that particuar individual and Islam and the Muslims.
Yesterday the representative of Islam in France expressed his condoleances to the jewish community and this morning he said that this particular individual was puting shame on all the Muslim in France and was not acting according Islam.
To be clear: the man hunted down a 6 years old girl before shooting her in the head! This has shocked everybody in France. The fact she was jewish has little to do with the reaction of the comon people.
Kevin23
03-21-2012, 11:28 AM
Report from CNN,
http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/21/world/europe/france-shooting/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
J Wolfsberger
03-21-2012, 12:26 PM
The representative of the Jewish of France has called to avoid any amalgame between that particuar individual and Islam and the Muslims.
Yesterday the representative of Islam in France expressed his condoleances to the jewish community and this morning he said that this particular individual was puting shame on all the Muslim in France and was not acting according Islam.
M-A, what is the source for that?
M-A Lagrange
03-21-2012, 01:26 PM
M-A, what is the source for that?
the news paper Le Monde on its live actuallity follow up. And other news papers in France. I did not post the source as it is in French and is of little use for most of the SWJ followers.
http://www.lemonde.fr/popup/live/1671851/
Palestinian authorities also announced they reject the excuse of advenging the assassination of Palestinian children to justify the assassination of 4 and 5 years old boys and 7 years old girl.
Also, after several information stating that the killer had been imprisonned in Kandahar in 2007, Kandahar authorities denied saying that a man nickednamed "the French" with the same name was imprisonned at the dates mentioned but it is not the killer.
KandaharMediaOf: @MaryFitzgerldIT Toulouse gunman wasn’t arrested in Kandahar, he is not the one that escaped from Kandahar prison, perhaps names r the same.
It is a difficult time in France: it is the presidential campaign and hatery speetches have been used by many candidates, mainly the majority and extrem right wing.
davidbfpo
03-22-2012, 12:17 AM
When I last checked the BBC News the siege was still under-way.
Meantime ICSR has provided this backgrounder:
News reports today have linked the Toulouse gunman responsible for the murders of seven people, now identified as French citizen Mohammed Merah, to a recently banned French extremist group with connections to Britain.
Named Forsane Alizza (FA – the Knights of Pride), the group bears many similarities to the UK-based al-Muhajiroun/Islam4UK network.
Later a comment that has far wider implications:
If anything, the group illustrates how fluid the boundaries are between terrorism and ostensibly non-violent groups such as FA. According to a 2010 CSC survey, 15% of UK nationals convicted of Al-Qaeda related terrorist offences had links to FA’s British ‘sister group’, al Muhajiroun. While having no direct links, experts believe that al Muhajiroun has served as a ‘gateway’ into terrorism, providing ideological indoctrination and access to recruiters and Al-Qaeda ‘middle managers’.
Link:http://www.icsr.info/news/icsr-insight-toulouse-gunmans-link-to-uk-extremists
The only reference to the alleged links to a banned French extremist group I could find quickly was this on the BBC:
French news channel BFM TV said he was linked to Forsane Alizza (Knights of Pride), an Islamist group banned last month in France.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17456541
jmm99
03-22-2012, 03:43 AM
From UK Telegraph, Toulouse siege: live (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9157126/Toulouse-siege-live.html)
Live coverage of the siege at the home of Mohammed Merah, the suspected Toulouse serial killer responsible for the murders of four people outside a Jewish school and three paratroopers in south west France.
Regards
Mike
M-A Lagrange
03-22-2012, 06:19 AM
The assault is still underway.
RAID is still negociating with the suspect. They clearly play the clock and exhaustion to catch him alive.
(All is coming from Le Monde Live).
According to informations the suspect gave to the RAID, the school attack was an opportunistic attack. That day he was looking for military and did not find any so he turned on the school.
Also he claims he accepted a general mission from AQ for France.
A lot of things are being said by the suspect and the media about his training, his engagement, his links (real or dreamed) with AQ with radical Islam...
Not all makes sense. As usual much is coming out from his past with various people saying I called the police, I told the police... What is sure is that he was under surveillance by French secret services, he was suspected since the seccond assassination and that he is acting weird for a terrorist. (according to the men from RAID)
The suspect is not a lonely extrememist like Brevnik, he is not a radical terrorist with strong mental training... He is most probably a man who self radicalised and then tried to get in touch with radical Islamist groups. He was not alone (his brother has been arrested an a car full of weapons was founf with him) but was not part of a known group...
The other question now is how did he get the funds and the logistic to get that many war weapons in France. Cause France is not US, you don't just go to the grosserie store to get an AK and a UZI. Basically you pay 1000 time their price and get it through criminal networks with a 95% of chances to get screwed in the process.
M-A Lagrange
03-22-2012, 08:36 AM
Tueries de Toulouse et de Montauban : une femme activement recherche
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/tuerie-toulouse-montauban-femme-activement-recherch%C3%A9e-192000359.html
Montauban and Toulouse killings: Police is actively searching for a woman.
Since several days, the police is looking for a woman who was on the phone with the suspect just few minutes before the attack on the school. She was in a train in the Paris area. Apparently, according to another article, she was in tears asking the suspect to stop killing. She is now wanted for non denonciation of a terrorist crime.
Suspect is thought to be dead
M-A Lagrange
03-22-2012, 10:56 AM
The suspect Mohamed Merha died during the assault by RAID. During the exchange of fire inside the appartment, 300 live ammunitions have been fired and several explosives (at least 3 detonnations) have been used.
3 police men have been injured, one is said critical, during the final phase which started around 10.30 AM and ended around 11.30AM.
The suspect after saying he wanted to surrender changed his mind and said he wanted to "die a gun in his hands".
Bravo pour l'equipe du RAID.
The description of the raid by RAID is pretty incedible. He was hiding in the toilet, burst out of the room guns blazing and then jumped out of the window.
bourbon
03-22-2012, 02:52 PM
The other question now is how did he get the funds and the logistic to get that many war weapons in France. Cause France is not US, you don't just go to the grosserie store to get an AK and a UZI. Basically you pay 1000 time their price and get it through criminal networks with a 95% of chances to get screwed in the process.
My bet is that he will have had previous ties to criminal activity – drugs probably, low level stuff – but has contacts in North African hash smuggling networks. He would know the right people to go to.
Seems like he tried the whole drugs, girls and fast cars thing – didn’t fill his internal hole – so he eventually drifts into radical religion. Second generation immigrant who feels like neither an Algerian or a Frenchmen - seeking an identity – first as a gangster, then as a Jihadi.
It is a pattern. He isn’t the first, and he won’t be the last.
As I have said before, from the definitive book/movie of our times:
"Man, I see in fight club the strongest and smartest men who've ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy s##t we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off."
- Tyler Durden, Fight Club
Psycho-babble aside, I am glad to see RAID put the sob down.
jmm99
03-22-2012, 04:45 PM
According to the media, we had a French citizen Mohammed Merah, who racked up 7 KIA. Based on a 5x multiplier, that's equivalent to 35 KIA in the US.
Let's posit that 13 French citizens (or whatever country you want, preferably your own) join together into 3 fire teams with a leader. Looks something like a USMC rifle squad.
At what point (if at all) do the rules re: that group move from law enforcement rules (apparently employed by RAID in this case) to military rules allowing the members of the group to be treated according to their status as combatants ?
I believe this question is important because we probably will see future home-grown organized Mombai events somewhere in Le Monde. The question is fundamentally a policy question. The answer to that policy question will drive both military and legal COAs.
I've declared my position in a conversation with Bill Moore, I can't see any material difference, so far as killing is concerned ... (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=126750&postcount=102); and will keep my mouth shut if there is a discussion (...Have a good cup, etc....).
If no one else thinks the question is worth discussing, then silence in itself will be feedback.
Thanks in advance
Mike
tequila
03-22-2012, 06:12 PM
At what point (if at all) do the rules re: that group move from law enforcement rules (apparently employed by RAID in this case) to military rules allowing the members of the group to be treated according to their status as combatants ?
I'm a bit at a loss here - why should a small band of AQ shooters on domestic soil be treated any differently than, say, Hutaree (http://www.freep.com/article/20120314/NEWS01/120314048/Hutaree-militia-leader-says-in-recording-he-d-pop-police-officer)types or other kinds of nutjob active shooters (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beltway_sniper_attacks)? Do they possess any sort of special powers or capabilities that make them somehow too capable for normal U.S. law enforcement?
M-A Lagrange
03-22-2012, 06:19 PM
Hello Mike,
This is a good question. Just to provide more information to start it:
The R.A.I.D. is a POLICE unit and its name stand for Research, Assistance, Intervention, Dissuasion. This despite the name was first chosen in the first place for its meaning: military assault.
RAID police officers are under the commandment of the National Police General Director and its purpose is to intervene in case of “grave events” necessitating the use of specific techniques and means to neutralize a dangerous individual through negotiation or intervention. They also provide support for specific mission for the anti terrorist coordination unite (UCLA).
The “marquee de fabrique” of RAID is indeed negotiation even if they are known for their interventions.
RAID is different from GIGN, National Gendarmerie Intervention Group, which is a military group from the gendarmerie.
GIGN is specialized into counter terrorism operation and hostage liberation.
In the case of a Bombay like operation, it is the GIGN rather than RAID that would intervene as their missions are:
- intervention in case of high jacking of plane, boats, nuclear attack, chemical attack, French citizen taken hostage overseas
- VIP protection, embassies protection, extraction of French citizens, foreign territory crisis management, security of major events, training.
That said, to come back to the discussion on engagement rules:
RAID goes by the rules of engagement of the police: mainly based on self defense.
My bate is that in the case of Toulouse, when the suspect jumped out of the window while firing, the “self defense” rule is extended to allow snipers to neutralize him.
Also, in that particular case, there was a political will to catch the man alive. His death is then a last extremity option.
In a different scenario, as the hostage crisis in a kindergarden in 1993, the security of the children taken hostage and being evacuated by the RAID was put as a first priority. The RAID executed the hostage taker while they were evacuating the children. The man pretended to have a bomb on his chest. RAID managed to put him asleep but as he started to wake up, he was neutralized.
This to say, rules of engagement may differ with context of operation.
Hey Bourbon,
Sure he had links with criminals. But the question of his support remains open: how did he get the financial support? An organisation close to AQ is saying that he was one of their members. This remains to be verified.
There are strong possibilities that he was just a jihad looser as labeled him one AQ French specialist.
bourbon
03-22-2012, 08:21 PM
Sure he had links with criminals. But the question of his support remains open: how did he get the financial support?
What kind of financial support are we talking about here? A few plane tickets to Pakistan, and then later money for a couple guns – he could have self-financed that through grifting and selling hashish.
Might even have been a criminal informant or low-level intelligence asset at one point; playing both sides for the cash and the kicks. That is a cynical suggestion, I know; but frankly the French are very good when it comes to this stuff, so when I read the following my suspicions are raised:
Mohamed Merah and the War on Terror’s New Front (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/22/mohamed-merah-and-the-war-on-terror-s-new-front.html), by Christopher Dickey. The Daily Beast, 22 March 2012.
It’s not as if they’d never heard of Mohamed Merah or his family. His older brother, Abdelkader, was known to be “implicated” at a low level in a network that smuggled jihadists to Iraq in 2007. The fact that Merah himself went to the Afghanistan-Pakistan region twice in the last two years apparently set off no alarm bells. In 2010 he was picked up by Afghan police at a checkpoint and turned over to American troops, who “put him on the first plane bound for France,” according to Paris Public Prosecutor François Molins. In 2011, after two months in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, Merah returned to France again last October, ostensibly because he’d contracted hepatitis. Five months later he launched his murderous campaign in the Toulouse area, killing three French paratroopers, a rabbi, and three little Jewish children.
French authorities continue to play down the 23-year-old Merah’s claims before his death that he was tied to al Qaeda, but their explanation for skepticism is weirdly circular. He went to Afghanistan, said Molins, without using routes “known to the French and foreign specialized services” and without using “the facilitators who are targeted by [those services] and without passing through the countries that are usually under surveillance.” A security source close to the French presidency tells The Daily Beast that on the first trip Merah wasn't on the ground long enough to draw attention, and on the second he traveled with a visa, supposedly in search of a bride. (Frenchmen of Algerian backgrounds looking for Afghan or Pakistani brides apparently raise few suspicions among the French intelligence services.)
“He knew how to avoid them,” says a senior American intelligence officer.
M-A Lagrange
03-23-2012, 07:11 AM
Well, I think that it is more complex than that.
Being sympathetic to the radical Islam ideology is not enough to turn you into a “combatant”. This even if you claim to be part of an AQ affiliated group. There is a need of evidence of such affiliation.
The case of Merha is interesting in that sense. The organization which claims he was one of their members is a “new one”.
The fact it was not known does not make it nonexisting, I agree. But it has to be proven in the first place that such organization does exist and in a second time they have links with AQ, as they pretend.
I am no expert on radical Islamic organization in Europe so I will go with what the police say for the moment.
To come back to Mike topic, it really does impact the rules of engagement. If you face a lone wolf psycho is different than if you face an armed group which infiltrated in a country. One is a police matter, the other one might be assimilated to a military operation.
That said, as I mentioned in my previous post, even for a police operation, rules of engagement may evolve with the gravity of the threat.
davidbfpo
03-23-2012, 10:14 AM
There are a number of issues here and distinct time periods, each with their own time pressures.
Pre-shooting and intelligence:
A lot of French people will have assumed that if a known radical returns from the Afghan-Pakistani al-Qaeda-ruled badlands, then he will be more or less permanently tailed by the secret service....Interior Minister Claude Gueant's answer to this is that "it is impossible to arrest someone just because he has Salafist views. In France - and this is a good thing - holding a particular point of view is not a crime."
The French have taken an almost exclusively law enforcement approach to CT and none of the 'Prevent' activity once so in vogue in the UK (and about to emerge in the USA, known as CVE). Well illustrated by the French Prime Minister's comment:
There was no single element allowing to detain Mohamed Merah. We don't have the right in a country like ours to permanently monitor without judicial authorisation someone who hasn't committed an offence ... We live in a state of law.
Political statement caveat; we know that French executive action follows different legal and non-legal rules.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9162075/Toulouse-siege-French-police-had-no-grounds-to-detain-Mohamed-Merah.html
The post-shooting investigation:
And when police began combing through computer IP addresses linked to the first victim, it was the appearance of Merah's mother's name on one of the accounts that gave them their first big lead.
It is certainly a matter of huge regret that the link with Merah was not established before the killings at the Jewish school on Monday.
Had the relevant IP account (one of 575 they were checking) been higher up the police list, conceivably they could have saved four lives.
But that is surely just the hazard of high-pressure police work. No-one has seriously questioned the competence or diligence of the investigation.
From:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17476996
President Sarkozy has referred to criminalising: repeated visits to websites that preach hate / terrorism; going abroad for ideological indoctrination and tackling extremism in French jails. partly covered here:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/us-france-shooting-sarkozy-idUSBRE82L0MH20120322
As for R.A.I.D., a superb job, especially since some reports indicate they entered the flat without lethal weapons and the BBC had a great picture of a Paratrooper shaking the hand of a RAID officer upon returning to their barracks.
davidbfpo
03-23-2012, 10:31 AM
JMM99 asked, in part:
At what point (if at all) do the rules re: that group move from law enforcement rules (apparently employed by RAID in this case) to military rules allowing the members of the group to be treated according to their status as combatants ?
This is an issue that appeared in the Mumbai thread, when discussion turned to what if it happened here (US & UK). I expect that the police remain in command when the threat is contained and is within the capability of the police. Note in France there was a much clearer and closer political role, the Interior Minister was there at the scene.
Mumbai thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6345
The military role is when the threat is mobile, cannot be contained and not within the police's capability. In the UK the threat's legal status remains that of a criminal suspect, even when signed over to the SAS for example for a few minutes, as we saw in Princes Gate in 1980 - seventeen minute period and in Gibraltar in 1988.
JMM, would a handover to the US military change the attackers legal status if an incident happened today?
The description of the raid by RAID is pretty incedible. He was hiding in the toilet, burst out of the room guns blazing and then jumped out of the window.
That was some shoot out!
3 bangs and 300 rounds fired. Three friendlies wounded, one bad guy killed.
Who won?
jmm99
03-23-2012, 06:00 PM
:D:):D
David: I'll think about this question:
JMM, would a handover to the US military change the attackers legal status if an incident happened today?
and ("coin"cidentally), have been looking at some related "stuff" [e.g., here (http://www.lawfareblog.com/2012/01/government-brief-in-hamdan-the-looming-article-iii-problem/), Steve Vladeck is a centrist, left side; my "Mumbai" question is, in the US, an Ex Parte Quirin (http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=us&vol=317&invol=1) question; or, in today's parlance, a Title 18 (Dept. of Justice) vs Title 10 (Dept. of Defense) + Title 50 (National Security) question]. It strikes me that the topic would be useful as a comparative policy, military-civil courses of action conversation. In a separate thread, of course, in the appropriate forum - not Law Enforcement (IMO) because it goes beyond that; and not AQ-GWOT because it goes beyond that as well. Maybe you, Lagrange and I can kick this around privately.
Not to discourage anyone from answering the question here (as Marc-Andre did and well), but I said I wouldn't butt into those responses. So, I won't.
Regards
Mike
davidbfpo
03-23-2012, 11:10 PM
The Officer commanding R.A.I.D. has given a very short, interesting interview:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17495739
tequila
03-24-2012, 01:18 AM
Interview with Bernard Squarcini, director of French domestic intelligence, about the Toulouse killer:
http://worldcrunch.com/exclusive-french-intel-chief-reveals-new-details-about-toulouse-killer/4945
On Thursday, Foreign Minister Alain Jupp said I understand that you could ask yourself the question of whether or not there were mistakes. Is that a criticism of your department?
The meaning of that phrase has been taken out of context. People, including children, died in a particularly cruel way, so we are certainly asking ourselves the questions like - Could we have done it differently? Did we miss something? Were we fast enough? But it was impossible to say, on Sunday evening, It is Merah, we have to catch him. He himself hadnt planned to attack the Jewish school on Monday morning. According to his declarations during the raid, he had planned to kill another soldier, but he arrived too late. Since he knew the neighborhood well, he improvised and decided to attack Ozar-Hatorah (school).
Mohammed Merah spoke with you during the raid and siege?
He wanted to speak with the officer from the regional intelligence service with whom he'd spoken in November 2011. The officer arrived during the negotiations, and Mohammed seemed to trust him. He confided in him, he cooperated with him. He told us where the scooter and the two cars were. The rapport was good, but not without cynicism. He even told the officer, Anyway, I should have called you to tell you that I had a tip for you, but in reality, I was going to demolish you. He was very two-faced.
You have to go back to his troubled childhood and his psychiatric problems. To have done what he did, there are really more signs that he suffered from a medical problem, delusions, than that he was a simple jihadist. According to the officer who had spoken with him in November, it was the second part of his personality who spoke on Wednesday. He spoke of a second section of his life, a part of his life that he had not wanted to reveal when he was interviewed in November. In a way, he completed the second half of that interview ...
He wasn’t the victim of a radicalizing gang in prison?
He seems to have gotten radicalized on his own.
He had an unusual personality then?
He did not show any obvious fundamentalist attributes. When convicted by the juvenile court, a slight psychological weakness was detected. He didn’t cope very well with his parents’ divorce, and his father returned to Algeria. He had a very particular relationship with his mother. He lived off odd jobs, which he kept for a month, a month-and-a-half. It was actually his mother who covered his costs. And he also told us through the door on Wednesday that it was his business and his small thefts that allowed him to save up and buy guns ...
He apparently traveled widely throughout the Middle East, including Israel, before making his way to Afghanistan via Tajikistan.
The Officer commanding R.A.I.D. has given a very short, interesting interview:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17495739
David, I would respond to that like 'Mandy Rice Davies'.
As the say it all comes out in the fullness of time.
French serial killer had 20 bullet wounds after gunfight (http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/french-serial-killer-had-20-bullet-wounds-after-gunfight-3060027.html)
A post-mortem on the Islamist serial killer who died in a siege in Toulouse revealed he suffered some 20 bullet wounds.
Police officials last night said the body of Mohamed Merah (23) was riddled with bullets, but only two were fatal.
...
Revelations that the self-styled al-Qa'ida terrorist was shot 20 times by police "in self defence" will raise further questions about the handling of the operation, which was yesterday described as a tactical disaster.
They killed him twice?
Seriously, one needs to ask what weapons they were using that you can hit a person 18 times and he can still move and fire? He was seriously high on something?
Then a little professional rivalry:
Yesterday, Christian Prouteau, who founded the GIGN, a rival elite unit answerable to the French gendarmerie, asked: "How come the police's best unit did not manage to arrest a man all alone? They should have flushed him out with a high-dosage tear gas. He wouldn't have lasted five minutes. Instead of which, they throw volleys of grenades.
More to follow no doubt.
M-A Lagrange
03-24-2012, 02:19 PM
Here is the assault related by RAID commander.
Le chef du RAID raconte l'assaut l'AFP: "Je n'avais jamais vu a"
Le plan consistait "le cerner dans la petite salle de bain o il s'tait retranch, de le saturer de grenades lacrymognes aprs avoir fait une brche et de s'assurer de sa personne", explique-t-il.
Ses hommes taient tous munis "de masques gaz et, en plus de leur armement individuel, de fusils pompe gomme-cogne et de lanceurs de balles de dfense".
Au moment o nous arrivons hauteur de la salle de bain, il n'y a toujours aucune raction de sa part, on commence effectuer une brche pour passer de la grenade lacrymogne", ajoute-t-il.
A cet instant "il se met tirer travers la paroi, nous engage et malgr cela, je donne l'ordre qu'on lui envoie des grenades offensives de manire pouvoir essayer de le choquer, l'apprhender vivant".
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/chef-raid-raconte-lassaut-%C3%A0-lafp-navais-jamais-174523261.html
I translate just the assault but there is more in the interview, in French, I'm sorry but google translate is a nice tool.
The plan was to surround him in the tiny bathroom where he was tranched, saturate him with crying gaz grenads after having created a breach and ensure of his person. He (RAID commander) explains.
His men were equiped with gaz mask and, in addition to their individual weapon, of riotguns with rubber-shock bullets and flashballs.
At the moment we arrive at the bathroom level, there is still no reaction from him (Merah), we start to creat a breach to throw gaz grenads. He adds.
At this momment, he start to shoot through the wall, engaging us and despite this, I give the order to throw offensive/shock grenads in order to shock him and catch him alive.
I have no particular preferences for RAID or GIGN. I cannot evaluate if the right decisions were made at the right time.
Individual weapons for RAID are:
Glock 17,
Beretta M-92F,
Glock 19,
Glock 26;
Glock 18 ;
But this might explain why Merah died twice.
To understand the rivalries between RAID and GIGN, you have to keep in mind that RAID is "the favorit of the president". Mr Sarkozi knows them from the hostage crisis in a kindergarden when he was mayor of Neuilly.
France is in a electoral campaign. Military (GIGN) and police may have some messages to send to the future president.
davidbfpo
03-24-2012, 02:30 PM
Given the high profile of this incident and France's success in averting terrorist attacks for many years everyone involved is under the "microscope". Plus of course speculation on alternative explanations.
The BBC have assembled a reasonable article:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17487320
One journalist writing a book on internal French security has a good quote:
The technical means are very advanced but they do not replace human sources
He should have added the human actor within the agencies.
Below is the photo I mentioned yesterday - when RAID returned to the Paratrooper's barracks.
I think this is quite a unique case. Someone who became redicalised, as most do, in order to fill a void in their lives. However it seems to have been in a rather (to use a British turn of phrase) cack-handed way. The interviews listed above explain all of that. I'm sure this will cause a review into how French intelligence manage cases. Though, as said and as was said by a pundit from the Eurasia forum, after 9/11 (a term I cringe to use) France was considered to be the hotspot of Islamic terrorism in Europe. This has been avoided, this surely is a success.
jmm99
03-24-2012, 10:18 PM
"Waal, Ah reckon you should keep shootin' 'em 'til they stop doin' whatever it was that made you start shootin' 'em in the first place." Anon. LEO.
:)
Regards
Mike
Seriously, one needs to ask what weapons they were using that you can hit a person 18 times and he can still move and fire? He was seriously high on something?
Maybe sometimes guys just won't go down. The Filippinos and the Moros were famous for that 100 and more years ago.
bourbon
03-28-2012, 12:36 PM
French spy agency denies Toulouse gunman was an informant (http://intelnews.org/2012/03/28/01-957/). intelNews.org, 28 March 2012.
France’s domestic intelligence agency has denied allegations, made by its former Director, that it employed as an informant the militant Islamist who recently killed seven people in Toulouse. Yves Bonnet, who headed France’s DCRI between 1982 and 1985, made the allegation in an interview with La Dépêche du Midi, one of France’s largest regional newspapers, headquartered in Toulouse.
This angle hasn’t really shown up in the English language press; it is centered on around the comment made by Yves Bonnet and reporting in the Italian newspaper Il Foglio.
davidbfpo
03-28-2012, 01:47 PM
A very interesting aspect covered by KoW Blog, which opens with:
Mohammed Merah, the culprit of the killing of 7 people in France last week, was found using a mix of traditional and online forensics. This case highlights that online attribution/identification is possible with a sound Internet governance model, but it also raises a few questions.
Link:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/03/online-attribution-of-the-french-killer/
M-A Lagrange
03-28-2012, 03:22 PM
Not really having time for posting links but according to French press:
Merah had psychiatric past. He was detained for 15 days in a psychiatric hospital after a suicide attempt.
But more important, there could be a third man (the seccond one being his brother). Al Jazira received videos of the murders that were posted out of Toulouse by someone who is not Merah.
I tend to believe that a cell with less than 3 to 4 people is almost not detectable before it becomes active. Even more when it is a one person who becomes active in a 3 to 4 person dormant cell.
That said, I have no clue or expertise to say if Merah was part of such a cell.
Maybe sometimes guys just won't go down. The Filippinos and the Moros were famous for that 100 and more years ago.
Were drugs involved?
I can tell you that you hit him with one 7.62x51mm NATO and it puts him on his ass... but in the close confines of a small house or apartment I concede a short, light weapon may be needed (9mm) then its all in the ammo, yes?
What use is ammo that you hit him with but does not stop him firing back at you? Too damn sporting for my liking! I wouldn't send my troopies into a situation like that.
JMA: To my knowledge there were no drugs involved, just very highly motivated guys who were moving very fast often times swinging razor sharp edged weapons. I read that the Army troops started out with .38 cal double action pistols and many went back to using .45 cal single action pistols because they were a bit more effective in putting people down quickly. Google Juramentados but there is at least one bad error about pig remains in the Wiki article. There should be a lot of other good refs on the net.
Try this site also, very interesting.
http://www.morolandhistory.com/
The war in the Philippines and Moroland in the early 1900s is fascinating. I don't know if you can easily get books about that in SA but if you can I think you would find it interesting. Once upon a time, we knew how to fight small wars.
davidbfpo
03-31-2012, 10:51 AM
An interesting commentary on the wider issues in France, which are often seen in other places, that opens with:
In 'sensitive urban zones' where a third of residents live below the poverty line and unemployment among young people is over 40%, it is difficult to see how people like Mohammed Merah can become part of France’s social fabric.
Which ends with:
Just as the riots which took place last summer in the UK were a symptom of youth unemployment and disengagement from society, so Mohammed Merah’s actions were an indication that people like him need to be provided with opportunities for employment and be made to feel a part of their country of birth as opposed to a discriminated-against minority. France needs a real debate about why these attacks were carried out as opposed to focusing on cosmetic solutions which deviate from the problem entirely.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/elena-georgantzis/debate-france-urgently-needs-after-toulouse-attacks
At the same time it is possible to see other French Muslims have taken steps to leave 'sensitive urban zones', like the murdered paratroopers and Merah did seek to join the French Army.
davidbfpo
03-31-2012, 10:59 AM
A BBC News report on a series of police raids yesterday and it is quite clear there is a measure of political direction alongside a bureaucratic re-appraisal of militancy:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17558564
Incredibly the police "struck gold", slightly edited:
..the Forsane Alizza (Knights of Pride) group's... suspected leader, Mohammed Achamlane. Police sources told AFP that three Kalashnikovs, a Glock pistol and a grenade were seized at his home.
Not to overlook the context:
The BBC's Christian Fraser: "Everything that is happening at the moment also has to be seen through the prism of the election"
SWJ Blog
04-09-2012, 12:41 PM
Afghan Blowback in France (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/afghan-blowback-in-france)
Entry Excerpt:
--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/afghan-blowback-in-france) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
davidbfpo
04-09-2012, 02:30 PM
There is a SWJ Blog article 'Afghan Blowback in France' and the present IT difficulties prevent making comments there.
Link:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/afghan-blowback-in-france
There is the unanswered question was this:
A Plot Inspired and Driven by Al-Qaeda?
And under:
New Challenges for French Counter-TerrorismWhich I have summarised as first:
The modus operandi is strikingly different from past Salafist-Jihadist attacks in France. ... Merah’s M.O. is consistent with Abu Musab al Suri’s recommendation to engage in small-scale independent acts of anti-Western terror.
Secondly:
Mohammed Mehra is a loner... it indicates that the painstaking work of monitoring and preventing new attacks will need to be adapted.
Finally:
Merah behaved like a ‘serial killer.’...The confluence of terroristic and criminal motivations and tactics present new challenges for both the French government and French society. Among those challenges: how does the government detect those individuals before they spur into action?
davidbfpo
04-09-2012, 07:28 PM
Perhaps American LE members can comment, it struck me upon reflection that the 'Beltway Sniper' has similarities to the Toulouse crime series: an unusual M.O. in a crime series - of murders - with initially no known motive and the consequent creation of public fear.
A reminder of the 2002 'Beltway Sniper Series':http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beltway_sniper_attacks and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Allen_Muhammad
davidbfpo
04-10-2012, 10:41 PM
Raffaello Pantucci who has written before the 'Lone Wolf' has written a commentary for CNN and is here:http://raffaellopantucci.com/2012/04/10/in-france-a-new-type-of-lone-wolf-threat/
He concludes and with my emphasis in bold:
Merah is clearly a more dangerous proposition; not only since he was more successful, but also because to some degree he seems to have been able to operate using effective operational security. Clearly, French intelligence will have some explaining to do about how someone it was attentive to was able to accumulate such an arsenal, and also about how he was able to stay on the loose. Whether this is the product of a more trained or a more dedicated mind is unclear, but what it does show is that intelligence services need to be more attentive to people who they may have considered peripheral figures on terrorist networks. Previously, they would have been able to focus on the core, and leave the more fragmentary elements of the network on a looser leash. But with the growing instance of individuals like Merah and Geele, and their increasing lethality, it will have to be reconsidered which individuals are of concern.
The question becomes how such individuals can be effectively focused on and how intelligence services can distinguish them from the large community of individuals that exist on the periphery of known terrorist networks but who never move into action. While much has been made of the French tendency toward human rather than electronic intelligence as a potential reason why Merah was able to seemingly accumulate his armory and was able to stay below the radar for so long, it is unclear that greater electronic information would have necessarily uncovered him.
Within the United States, where electronic intelligence is the foundation of counter-terrorism work, individuals have managed to proceed quite far staying beneath the eyes of electronic watchers. Whatever the case, the key lesson is that it is increasingly becoming the norm that individuals less central to terrorist networks are going to move to the heart of terrorist operations. Figuring out how to distinguish them from the noise surrounding them is going to be a challenge for the next few years.
The identification of a less central individual amidst the noise has featured in the UK's CT campaigning, notably the apparent linkages between some of the 7/7 bombers and others who featured higher on the "radar" which were not pursued by the police or the Security Service.
What role will informants play? Will the use of entrapment be allowed for such individuals? Can their own community play a part?
In times past disruption was seen as an option, just a casual visit to discuss issues or a "warning off". Could such action actually accelerate such an individual. It is alleged that one Atocha bomber was radicalised by by the attention he was given when visiting Morocco.
AdamG
10-12-2012, 03:29 PM
Prosecutors in France have said an alleged Islamist terror cell was planning the biggest bomb attack on France since the mid-1990s.Police arrested 12 people in raids at the weekend, during which one suspect was killed as he fired on officers. Five of the detainees have since been released but seven remain in custody, on suspicion of terrorist activity.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19907272
One of the two suspected of recruiting jihadists had made trips to Egypt and Tunisia, a former French colony, spending three months away from France with the man who was killed in the weekend raids, Molins said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-france-raids-idUSBRE89A1BB20121011
In the garage, investigators found rifles, ammunition, a bottle of candle wax, 3 kilograms of potassium nitrate, a bag of charcoal, 1-1/2 kilograms of sulfur, electric cables, batteries, five car headlight bulbs, and a pressure cooker, Molins said.
http://www.ajc.com/ap/ap/crime/france-frees-5-of-12-accused-of-attack-on-market/nSZgF/
davidbfpo
01-13-2013, 03:09 PM
Corsica has been racked with nationalist and criminal violence, on a scale rarely reported beyond France; arson attacks and murders - although not of those essential 4m tourists:http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_15860/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=vdYYWwW0
An indicator of the problem:
Of the 85 gangland killings and attempted assassinations in Corsica in the past eight years, only one case - a plot against a former nationalist turned president of Corsica's biggest soccer team - has ended in conviction.
A Corsician says:
Bianchi, the former mayor, was once jailed for his links to the group and has since publicly renounced violence. But he, like many Corsicans, couldn't bring himself to condemn the bombings in a place they consider their homeland.
"Even if I don't approve, I understand. I understand because in the current climate of Corsica, where there is enormous land speculation, there is a revolt," he said. "We don't want their country ... to become a place just for rich retirees in the next 10 or 15 years. We don't want it to become another Cote d'Azur."
davidbfpo
02-24-2013, 12:08 PM
According Marc Trvidic, Frances most prominent investigative judge dealing with terrorism:
since a Frenchman of Algerian ancestry, Mohamed Merah, 23, killed seven people last March in Toulouse, the French police and intelligence agencies have been opening more investigations but have not been given more investigators, and have also become less willing to monitor terrorism suspects for longer periods of time before intervening and detaining them....many suspects have been arrested, but at least 20 potential cases have been thrown out for lack of evidence.
The NYT article's headline is 'French Intervention in Mali Raises Threat of Domestic Terrorism, Judge Says' and covers that too:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/world/europe/french-intervention-in-mali-raises-threat-of-domestic-terrorism-judge-says.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_ee_20130224&pagewanted=all
I particularly like his reflective comment:
For all these problems its always the same. We talk only to the people who agree with us.
Julian Smith
10-28-2014, 04:28 PM
The Case For The French: ISIS/ISIL And The Use Of Boots On The Ground
(original at: http://lalternatif.com/le-cas-de-francais-lisil-et-lenvoie-des-troupes-sur-le-terrain/)
Many academics, policy officials, and military leaders agree on the complex problem that Iraq in the post-US imperial pull-out represents. Politically, the US is unwilling, incapable, and does not have the political stamina to return with combat troops to Iraq. Outside the city of Hit the reality is increasingly grim. ISIS is gaining ground and poses an existential threat to the government of Iraq.
Media reports show Iraqi soldiers are demanding that US armed forces return to Iraq to fight alongside them rather than the US government trying to deal politically with the incompetent leadership in Baghdad. It is evident that the remaining vestiges of the Iraqi army are close to collapse.
ISIS, on the other hand, shows structure, political and religious indoctrination, and most importantly, its troops are fighting for a cause. The brutality ISIS employs in its efforts to wipe out evil non-believers and terrorize the general population into submission dominates the media landscape. A gloomy picture of foreboding horrors emerges with ISIS becoming a real threat to the stability of the entire Middle Eastern region beyond merely taking control of Iraq.
Strategic blunders aside, what next, oh fearless leader?
President Obama’s pull-out from Iraq was a strategic blunder of colossal miscalculation for political gain. Though the pull-out appeared perfectly justifiable in the economic and political sense, the reality remains that the Maliki administration is as much to blame as the US administration for failing to comprehend the devastation of the Iraqi society that the US occupation wrought and the lack of a credible and sustainable governance of Iraq. Iraq is a failed state.
Claiming otherwise is to court a naïve potpourri of wishful thinking of “mission accomplished” and “no boots on the ground.” Both are failed strategies. It is recognized that staying in Iraq is not economically feasible. But like the Roman Army in Galilee, the US military, and by extension the political leadership in Imperial Washington, is faced with the question of “What next, oh fearless leader?”
Washington does have a few options, one of which is do nothing. But despite the gloomy situation, act it must and act it should. First, airpower, although sexy, is not the solution. Dragging in the Europeans as a whole into the American mess is not going to happen. Thanks to the post-World War II de-militarization of the Euro-zone, Europeans as a whole have no intention of getting dragged into what is essentially still an American problem. Limited air support is not going to make a difference. But, watch the French. We will cover this later.
Second, Special Forces are boots on the ground. They are not just “trainers” but provide air support elements, search and rescue, combat air controllers, and so forth. But a few hundred Special Forces troops are not sufficient to make any real difference. Gathering the leftovers of the disillusioned Iraqi army to stem the fast growing ranks of ISIS will be a difficult, if not impossible, task. Long term muddling in a low-intensity/counter insurgency warfare scenario is militarily a workable solution, but still requires a political strategy.
Third, the US could do nothing and sit back and watch the slow and agonizing death of Iraq as it turns into some bizarre state of hate outranking Iran at the height of its revolutionary madness. Compared to Iran, ISIS will come home to eat its neighbors.
Political ignorance is a strategy; it has served the interest of the United States repeatedly and should come as no surprise. Abandonment of allies has been a fixture in US strategy since Vietnam despite guarantees from the empire. So keeping the region instable is a strategy in and of itself. Abandonment as a regional strategy will keep Iraq’s neighbors Saudi Arabia, Iran, and even Syria on their toes.
Although abandonment is a short-term solution, it will be hardly containable for the long term. ISIS will convert Iraq into an Al Qaeda type of regime that Osama Bin Laden could have only dreamed about. The Sword of the Revolution will reign.
Intervention by force of arms
The new US colonialism is part of 21st century Realpolitik. Denied by the current U.S. administration the imperial realities of the situation in Iraq and the U.S. administration having lost the appetite and the political will to intervene with ground forces to defeat the ISIS threat may come to the conclusion that forceful intervention with a force of arms maybe required to save democracy and may not be such as bad strategy after all. The Anbar province in fact requested intervention by U.S. and coalition forces to prevent the province of being overrun.
The U.S. administration now has the option to deploy its armed forces or wage a proxy war. Whereas the deployment of a brigade size element may not be realistic or sufficient, it might become a tactical necessity in order to protect U.S. interests in Iraq. More forces are, however, required to defeat the ISIS threat.
Enter the French: The Legion Returns
With France, Great Britain, and Australia are coalition partners and the UK and Australia providing boots on the ground, deployment of French ground forces may not be such a far-fetched idea. It is a little known fact that since 1921 the French have had a detachment (and by 1939 a full regiment) posted throughout Syria, Lebanon, and later Tunisia and Algeria until the 1950’s.
The 6eme Régiment Étranger d’Infanterie, 6eme REI, nicknamed “Régiment du Levant” (“Levant” is the historical name of the French Syria and Lebanon territory), numbered almost 3,300 men. Historically, the Levant has been dominated by the French. The Lebanese still speak French as a second language, and the territory of Syria and Iraq provides ideal combat conditions for regiments of the French Foreign Legion. Deploying these regiments to Iraq provides a few strategic advantages.
First, the units of the French Foreign Legion in Afghanistan had one of the best combat fire-power/efficiency ratios. Second, these are combat seasoned regiments. The social mix of Legionnaires in the ranks provides a better social engagement with the local populous that will favor a return of trust for the embattled Iraqi government. And if required, the Legion can be aggressive as needed to deal with threats.
Second, the Legion regiments are combat experienced in fighting Islamic insurgents in Mali and Afghanistan. Returning to the Levant would be in line with their social structure and its historical context. But they are part of the regular French armed forces and subjected to the laws of land warfare. The Legion is, despite the units’ history and perpetuated myths, part of the French Rapid response force capability.
The deployment of the Legion would also reduce the call for mercenaries such as Blackwater returning with a mercenary army, not unlike the Biafra wars in the 1950s. But combat hardened troops being used to fight small unit warfare would be a formidable enemy for ISIS.
Third, Legionnaires are expendable and this is oddly socially expected in the context of the unofficial motto of the Legion: Marche ou crève (March or Die). Unit cohesion is based on allegiance toward the regiment first and is embodied in the official motto of the Legion: Legio Patria Nostra (The Legion is our Fatherland). ISIS has yet to show its true colors if faced with an aggressive combat force fighting irregularly, as the Legion does. To unseat ISIS in Iraq will require both aggressive combat leadership and a force en masse.
The Legion’s combination of modern weaponry, superior fire power, and air support would pack a formidable punch if coupled with US air power and the Special Forces technical expertise. It will provide the embattled Syrian army with breathing space to reform and rebuild their battered morale. Like any other elite fighting regiment, the Legion units need the protective screen of long range weaponry to reach entrenched enemies.
Fourth, Legion units train regularly in desert, urban, and cold weather conditions. The units’ ruggedness is based on a tradition of dealing with tres dur (very hard) conditions. Suffering of men is part of the battle attitude of Legion units going to the battlefield.
And finally, the Legion is expected to face casualties in war. Exhaustion or complete annihilation of units is not uncommon in the long history of the Legion but it is acceptable in both political and military terms.
The use of the French reduces the political issues of U.S casualties at home providing the force needed to combat ISIS operating within the range of a coalition. The units of the Legion are combat units. Tactical defeat, if experienced by the Legion provides strategic space for getting the Iraqi army in order. Death on the battle field is accepted by Legionnaires as a political reality for the general public. So is ISIS in Iraq. This is perhaps a harsh and political uncomfortable position to take but it is a daily reality we experience seeing hundreds of young Iraqi, Syrians or foreigners being beheaded, shot and dumped in the rivers running deep with the blood of a new extremist revolution. Perhaps this type of combat attitude is needed to stem the tide of defeat and unhinge ISIS in the Levant, the traditional home of the French Foreign Legion.
davidbfpo
10-28-2014, 09:43 PM
Julian,
In two other threads, on Syria and Iraq post-Mosul SWC have argued over the current coalition response and on SWJ there are articles.
No-one has suggested the French put "boots on the ground", whether they could be Foreign Legion or other units. I cannot currently see France wanting to do so either, even if you indicate:
Legionnaires are expendable...
Part of the argument over any Western "boots" is that is what ISIS wants, so why give that to them?
A smaller point. I would not agree with you that the Legion has an affinity to the region. French rule of Lebanon was 1920-1943 (troops finally left in 1946) and Syria 1920-1944 (ditto). The Legion fought in Syria in 1941, for Vichy and the Free French - perhaps a period they'd prefer to forget? If the Legion had a "home" it was Algeria, where they had a presence for far longer: 1831-1962.
davidbfpo
01-07-2015, 10:36 PM
The attack on Charlie Hebdo, a satirical magazine's editorial office in central Paris earlier today dominates the headlines here. It is still somewhat uncertain what actually happened, even if we know ten journalist / cartoonists and two police officers were murdered.
Awhile ago there were unconfirmed reports that the three attackers had been id'd, apparently leaving ID documents behind in a stolen car! Plus the police knew where they were. Nothing officially has been confirmed.
I have linked three very different commentaries. First Clint Watts (SWC & FPRI) who presents what is known and whether it fits the "usual suspects". He uses a method, known as ACH for short, in full Analysis of Competing Hypotheses:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/2015/01/who-attacked-charlie-hebdo-paris-assessing-jihadi-attack-west-isis-vs-al-qaeda
Simon Jenkins is a columnist for The Guardian and writes on the wider context, alongside the implications and the headline & sub-title (in part):
Now is the time to uphold freedoms and not give in to fear Terrorists can kill and maim, but they cannot topple governments. We must not hand them victory by treating this massacre as an act of warLink:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/07/charlie-hebdo-freedom-fear-terrorists-massacre-war?
Professor John Schindler combines history and knowledge of intelligence to ask aloud 'Parisian Terror: Will Europe Finally Wake Up?'.
Link:http://20committee.com/2015/01/07/parisian-terror-will-europe-finally-wake-up/
davidbfpo
01-07-2015, 10:38 PM
Normally I refrain from posting cartoons on SWC, but as the victims were mainly cartoonists it is appropriate today. Just two from the UK. There are a number on Twitter.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6x305uIEAAE3h4.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6x4cuFIMAAPkUJ.jpg
davidbfpo
01-07-2015, 10:46 PM
There are a few relevant, background threads:
France, terrorism & CT (merged thread), which covers a series of attacks in 2012 into 2013: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=15299
Londonistan: Muslim communities in France & UK:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=16376
Reforming CT: Institutions and Organizational Routines in Britain and France: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=18025
I have included French urban rioting (catch all) as it refers to the causes of disorder. I would draw special attention to Posts 32 & 34, which review a 2013 book 'The French Intifada: The Long War Between France and Its Arabs':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=4399
Bill Moore
01-08-2015, 12:36 AM
report just came in over SmartPhone (so unconfirmed) that the French security forces killed one of idiots, and captured the other two. They are reportedly connected to Al-Qaeda in Yemen. (Bad report, one surrendered, others arrested were not the shooters, I think they did shoot someone but unrelated to the incident).
Excellent cartoons, we should all keep posting. It was good to see the French people form large crowds in Paris holding up signs saying they're not afraid, and that we can still look forward to some more humor.
Let the spoiled brats cry about it when they don't get their way.
AdamG
01-08-2015, 05:13 AM
One surrendered.
http://nypost.com/2015/01/07/paris-attack-suspect-killed-2-taken-into-custody-report/
omarali50
01-08-2015, 06:29 AM
I stridently support an absolutist stand on free speech. I just don’t live under the delusion that it is somehow natural or eternal...
http://www.unz.com/gnxp/taboos-against-blasphemy-are-normal/
I collected some of the twitter conversations on my TL in this storify
https://storify.com/omarali50/terrorists-murder-cartoonists-at-charlie-hebdo
..but I do think the blasphemers will win. That certain values were commonplace and ancient in origin does not mean they will not change (also see comment #9 about India in the first post above). Anyway, the future is here, it's just not evenly distributed...it may also be unpleasant, jarring and uncomfortable in ways the old days were not.
It is going to be a bumpy ride.
But again, I do think the blasphemers will win. I just think the war will be nastier than it needs to be because both sides underestimate the other. That leads to miscalculations...
OUTLAW 09
01-08-2015, 09:26 AM
While the world "cries" that freedom of the press and the individual human right to voice opinions were at the heart of this attack--it was interesting to see what those large "so called western media giants" who should be the leaders in this defense actually did in response vs say the German media who has had a history of Hitler and the GDR.
The western media did just about anything and everything to either not republish the front pages of the various CH publications and or they simply digitized the covers--and that is what again "freedom of the press"?
Secondly, the German media stood up and stated if these covers are offensive so what--that is the price of the "freedom of the press" and pointed out that CH satirized every major religion just not only Islam. Then they republished virtually all their covers and undigitized.
Last year's #CharlieHebdo caricature of #Crimea referendum.They really have an understanding
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=893123574065666&set=a.178388948872469.39524.100001040967461&type=1&theater … pic.twitter.com/aIDCo3Hv5N
Well done Berliner Zeitung. Germany shows some balls. Every newspaper should have gone with this. We're not afraid.
pic.twitter.com/FMfyeyIXm7
Thirdly--something I have stated over and over here--until one of the largest religions decides to have it's own internal Reformation and the "so called" peaceful elements finally take a stand against their "violent/violence prone brothers" this is never going to end especially since Europe via the Russians is now awash with AK47s/RPGs. Really easy car ride full of weapons to Berlin and onwards to France from Donetsk.
Fourthly, does anyone else find it interesting that while the loss of 12 individuals brutally gunned down is bad--do we see the global media taking a real interest in the daily killings of Syrian civilians via chemical barrel bombs and relentless air attacks, or the killing of Ukrainian soldiers defending their country from what the western press seems to not want to call it "an active war conducted by Russian troops on Ukrainian soil" or the large number of armed conflicts in Africa.
Is it that these above-- Ukrainian, Syrian, African and the Shia militia now cleansing Sunni villages is simply to far away and Paris closer --why the disconnect?
OUTLAW 09
01-08-2015, 11:16 AM
While the world "cries" that freedom of the press and the individual human right to voice opinions were at the heart of this attack--it was interesting to see what those large "so called western media giants" who should be the leaders in this defense actually did in response vs say the German media who has had a history of Hitler and the GDR.
The western media did just about anything and everything to either not republish the front pages of the various CH publications and or they simply digitized the covers--and that is what again "freedom of the press"?
Secondly, the German media stood up and stated if these covers are offensive so what--that is the price of the "freedom of the press" and pointed out that CH satirized every major religion just not only Islam. Then they republished virtually all their covers and undigitized.
Last year's #CharlieHebdo caricature of #Crimea referendum.They really have an understanding
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=893123574065666&set=a.178388948872469.39524.100001040967461&type=1&theater … pic.twitter.com/aIDCo3Hv5N
Well done Berliner Zeitung. Germany shows some balls. Every newspaper should have gone with this. We're not afraid.
pic.twitter.com/FMfyeyIXm7
Thirdly--something I have stated over and over here--until one of the largest religions decides to have it's own internal Reformation and the "so called" peaceful elements finally take a stand against their "violent/violence prone brothers" this is never going to end especially since Europe via the Russians is now awash with AK47s/RPGs. Really easy car ride full of weapons to Berlin and onwards to France from Donetsk.
Fourthly, does anyone else find it interesting that while the loss of 12 individuals brutally gunned down is bad--do we see the global media taking a real interest in the daily killings of Syrian civilians via chemical barrel bombs and relentless air attacks, or the killing of Ukrainian soldiers defending their country from what the western press seems to not want to call it "an active war conducted by Russian troops on Ukrainian soil" or the large number of armed conflicts in Africa.
Is it that these above-- Ukrainian, Syrian, African and the Shia militia now cleansing Sunni villages is simply to far away and Paris closer --why the disconnect?
This is the core problem--Islamic Mullahs and Imams must take the initiative and hold open/frank discussions between the peace wing and the war wing of Islam and that is not happening.
Thus the killing will continue for a long time to come.
Worrying lack of reports about reactions of French & other Muslim clerics to #CharlieHebdo massacre
davidbfpo
01-08-2015, 11:59 AM
Outlaw09 posted (in part):
Worrying lack of reports about reactions of French & other Muslim clerics to #CharlieHebdo massacre
I have seen on Twitter several photos, notably of Muslim leaders os the leading mosque in Paris; a few Tweets - which appear to be by French Muslims - and one from Tariq Ramadan, the Muslim intellectual, IIRC with French nationality and resident @ Oxford University. He tweeted yesterday this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6wMlDFCAAACngJ.png:large
Their reaction maybe affected by the fact one of the dead police officers was a Muslim, Ahmed Merabet RIP (assigned to the local beat)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6yWmeNCEAAk9iq.jpg
davidbfpo
01-08-2015, 12:07 PM
There is still much speculative media reporting on the suspects for the attack yesterday. Would the suspect(s) really leave behind their official ID card? Or could that be a false clue?
Plus seemingly "out of the woodwork" a man with an armoured vest and an automatic rifle is involved in a shooting at a Paris Metro station, where one policewoman was killed and a civilian seriously injured.
Shashank Joshi has a useful summary:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11332383/What-the-Paris-shootings-tell-us-about-terror-in-2015.html
OUTLAW 09
01-08-2015, 03:28 PM
Outlaw09 posted (in part):
I have seen on Twitter several photos, notably of Muslim leaders os the leading mosque in Paris; a few Tweets - which appear to be by French Muslims - and one from Tariq Ramadan, the Muslim intellectual, IIRC with French nationality and resident @ Oxford University. He tweeted yesterday this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6wMlDFCAAACngJ.png:large
Their reaction maybe affected by the fact one of the dead police officers was a Muslim, Ahmed Merabet RIP (assigned to the local beat)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6yWmeNCEAAk9iq.jpg
Nothing though out of the centers for Islamic Law and Studies ie the KSA, Iran and the rest of the ME--and the Russian Federation of Mufti's basically blamed the CH yesterday.
OUTLAW 09
01-08-2015, 04:06 PM
Even when a Muslim in this case the current Egyptian leader attempted this month to discuss making a move at an even a "mini Reformation" inside Islam it gets torn apart from multiple different Islamic players and until that Reformation takes place we will sadly still see the killing continuing until a true Reformation places a brake on the "war faction of Islam".
http://news.yahoo.com/egypts-leader-ambitious-call-reform-islam-060108959.html
davidbfpo
01-08-2015, 07:16 PM
The victim of the shooting this morning, after a minor road traffic accident; a local police officer.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B61wHU6IMAA_n33.jpg
davidbfpo
01-08-2015, 07:21 PM
Part of Vox.com's headline, in full it is 'Stop asking Muslims to condemn terrorism. It's bigoted and Islamophobic'. Note the article was written before the Paris attack, on December 15th 2014:http://www.vox.com/2014/12/15/7394223/muslims-condemn-charlie-hebdo
It ends with:
We should treat people like the Charlie Hebdo attackers as what they are: monsters who kill both for the simple sake of killing (http://www.vox.com/2015/1/7/7509265/charlie-hebdo-cartoons/in/7271890) and to provoke (http://www.juancole.com/2015/01/sharpening-contradictions-satirists.html) exactly the sort of religious conflict that mosque-attackers are indulging. And we should treat Muslims as what they are: normal people who of course reject terrorism, rather than as a lesser form of humanity that is expected to denounce violence every time it happens.
OUTLAW 09
01-08-2015, 08:54 PM
Part of Vox.com's headline, in full it is 'Stop asking Muslims to condemn terrorism. It's bigoted and Islamophobic'. Note the article was written before the Paris attack, on December 15th 2014:http://www.vox.com/2014/12/15/7394223/muslims-condemn-charlie-hebdo
It ends with:
But when the killers are in fact Islamists and shout the standard jihadi slogans at the scene of the killings then the "peace wing" of Islam should then stand up and openly condemn the "war wing" as the "war wing" pushes a negative Islam image that in effects paints the "peace wing" in the same color ie all Muslims are "terrorists".
But we still have not heard from the centers of the Sunni Islamic Law and Studies-ie Egypt, KSA and Iran.
OUTLAW 09
01-08-2015, 10:45 PM
Appears the Russians know something we do not?
Major Russian TV network says US intelligence carried out the Charlie Hebdo attack
http://www.vox.com/2015/1/8/7514439/charlie-hebdo-russia-cia …
omarali50
01-08-2015, 11:34 PM
Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have officially condemned the attack, as has Al-Azhar in Egypt. They are all sincere in their own way. Saudi Arabia is now scared witless of free-lance Jihadis and no longer supports them the way it did in the good old days of the Afghan Jihad and even (mostly via private donors) in the Kashmir Jihad. Iran is closer to being a modern country with a real culture and history and does not appreciate chaos. It will use terrorists the way the US or the USSR may use them, as instruments of policy. Not as free-lance enforcers of their own notion of Islamic purity (and certainly not when they are anti-Shia fanatics).
Al-Azhar wants a more moderate version of Islamism. Not exactly tolerant or multiculti in the modern fashion, but not this crap either.
On the other hand, some Muslims have also been quick to approve of this slaughter and a large number (anecdotally, I would say a majority) do feel that blasphemy is a huge big deal and Charlie Hebdo certainly deserved some punishment, though probably not in this fashion.
See the links in my storify for more:
https://storify.com/omarali50/terrorists-murder-cartoonists-at-charlie-hebdo
AdamG
01-09-2015, 03:36 AM
Appears that one Russian claims to know something we do not?
:rolleyes:
Fixed that for ya.
Kiwigrunt
01-09-2015, 05:43 AM
Here is an interesting response (via Facebook, BBC Daily Politics & Sunday Politics).
An interview with Murray, Nawaz and Powell.
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1051109638239227&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=daily_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 06:26 AM
Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have officially condemned the attack, as has Al-Azhar in Egypt. They are all sincere in their own way. Saudi Arabia is now scared witless of free-lance Jihadis and no longer supports them the way it did in the good old days of the Afghan Jihad and even (mostly via private donors) in the Kashmir Jihad. Iran is closer to being a modern country with a real culture and history and does not appreciate chaos. It will use terrorists the way the US or the USSR may use them, as instruments of policy. Not as free-lance enforcers of their own notion of Islamic purity (and certainly not when they are anti-Shia fanatics).
Al-Azhar wants a more moderate version of Islamism. Not exactly tolerant or multiculti in the modern fashion, but not this crap either.
On the other hand, some Muslims have also been quick to approve of this slaughter and a large number (anecdotally, I would say a majority) do feel that blasphemy is a huge big deal and Charlie Hebdo certainly deserved some punishment, though probably not in this fashion.
See the links in my storify for more:
https://storify.com/omarali50/terrorists-murder-cartoonists-at-charlie-hebdo
But in the end they still have not openly condemned the "war wing" as that would take a really long long time to formally change the current Islam interpretations and as we have seen in the recent Egyptian attempts in the end will not fly.
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 08:07 AM
But in the end they still have not openly condemned the "war wing" as that would take a really long long time to formally change the current Islam interpretations and as we have seen in the recent Egyptian attempts in the end will not fly.
PR comments out of the ME leadership mean nothing if not backed up by comments from the Islamic higher learning centers in those countries---but since they are all basically conservative in nature and I and many others will be waiting until we are dead to see a Reformation coming out these centers.
Why---it is the way the Sunni and Shia global communities are built relying on local Imams and Mullah's for their interpretation of the Koran and supporting documents and many of them are not even well educated--and until he hear in their Friday prayers all across their global communities that the peace wing is totally feed up with the war wing---nothing will change.
This is not typical for the other great religions where they have a more of a centralized center for the entire religion.
Do agree though that a "silent majority" of Muslims "felt" that CH should be punished in some form--the other religions ie took their critique in stride and complained openly or in the case of Rome sued them and lost.
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 10:42 AM
No one could have even thought up this satire----jihadists who love creating propaganda killing journalists/cartoonists trapped now in a printing company.
An the circle comes full circle.
davidbfpo
01-09-2015, 11:28 AM
Nabila Ramdani, a French-Algerian journalist, provides some context for the events - including one episode I expect France would prefer be forgotten:
During one notorious atrocity in 1961, up to 200 Algerians were slaughtered around national monuments, including the Eiffel Tower and Notre Dame cathedral. Many were tossed into the Seine from some of the most beautiful bridges in the world and left to drown.
Citing the imam of the mosque in Drancy... spoke up for many when he said of the killers:
They have sold their souls to hell. This is not freedom. This is not Islam and I hope the French will come out united at the end of this.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/08/france-bloody-intolerant-history-bloodshed-muslims
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 11:32 AM
Interesting Russian stance:
Russian troll bots are coming out in support of the Charlie Hebdo attackers.
pic.twitter.com/Bstu5j8xsZ
Very scary development that Russian media lying about and #Russia controlled Internet trolls actively support the attack on #CharlieHebdo.
Russian Orthodox Activists Say #CharlieHebdo Shooting Was 'Just Punishment'
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-orthodox-activists-say-charlie-hebdo-shooting-was-just-punishment/514157.html …
pic.twitter.com/1L2aDAbVlZ
One should not be surprised at the Russia split personality on jihadi's, Chechnya and Syria.
Syria's BM-27 'Uragans' can be seen carrying the Soviet VDV (Airborne Troops) insignia
pic.twitter.com/voEoSAIRkE
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2015/9-january-syrias-bm27-uragans-can-be-seen-carrying-the-soviet …
omarali50
01-09-2015, 02:33 PM
Theology can catch up later. Once Western powers (or China, as the case may be) get past their postmodern confusions and ruling elites in several "Muslim" countries decisively turn against the use of Jihadism as a useful tool, the game is up as far as practical problems go. Residual Kharijite cells will wreak havoc in under-governed and ungoverned areas for decades but fewer and fewer people will care.
Why do I say this? because when I read the history of the last 200 years in our region (and I read a lot of it), I don't see some permanent state of war between Jihadists on one side and modernists/imperialists/whateverists on the other. The theology of Islam was the same as it is today, but it took the CIA and the ISI and Saudi money to convert latent Jihadism into functional terrorist armies. State support was crucial at every step. They are NOT self-sufficent even in propaganda. Now, certainly, they have become more capable and more autonomous over time, but there is still NO comparison between the resources of a modern state and the resources and capabilities of any Jihadist group (not even IS). In Afghanistan (the worst possible case for state building) the new-colonial Afghan state (to use Tariq Ali's phrase for it) would have won outright if another slightly more modern and capable state (Pakistan) had not been determined to resist that outcome.
They are not supermen. At some level they are just juvenile delinquents. Without the backing of more capable people in the background (STATES), they will be dealt with and either confined to hellholes or wiped out.
I have to flesh this idea out someday :)
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 03:10 PM
Theology can catch up later. Once Western powers (or China, as the case may be) get past their postmodern confusions and ruling elites in several "Muslim" countries decisively turn against the use of Jihadism as a useful tool, the game is up as far as practical problems go. Residual Kharijite cells will wreak havoc in under-governed and ungoverned areas for decades but fewer and fewer people will care.
Why do I say this? because when I read the history of the last 200 years in our region (and I read a lot of it), I don't see some permanent state of war between Jihadists on one side and modernists/imperialists/whateverists on the other. The theology of Islam was the same as it is today, but it took the CIA and the ISI and Saudi money to convert latent Jihadism into functional terrorist armies. State support was crucial at every step. They are NOT self-sufficent even in propaganda. Now, certainly, they have become more capable and more autonomous over time, but there is still NO comparison between the resources of a modern state and the resources and capabilities of any Jihadist group (not even IS). In Afghanistan (the worst possible case for state building) the new-colonial Afghan state (to use Tariq Ali's phrase for it) would have won outright if another slightly more modern and capable state (Pakistan) had not been determined to resist that outcome.
They are not supermen. At some level they are just juvenile delinquents. Without the backing of more capable people in the background (STATES), they will be dealt with and either confined to hellholes or wiped out.
I have to flesh this idea out someday :)
Flesh it out as you are correct and when the State changes so will the theology ---but right now no one is ready ie State or theology---to make changes.
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 03:53 PM
While an interesting Shia statement he tends to forget Shia militia killings and beheadings in Sunni villages and towns currently and their ethnic cleansing in the 2006/07 periods in Iraq.
The leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah group says Islamic extremists have insulted Islam and the Prophet Mohammed more than those who published satirical cartoons mocking the religion.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah did not directly mention the Paris attack on the offices of Charlie Hebdo that left 12 people dead, but he said Islamic extremists who behead and slaughter people — a reference to the IS group's rampages in Iraq and Syria — have done more harm to Islam than anyone else in history.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.636240?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
davidbfpo
01-09-2015, 04:23 PM
In my earlier reading I found these three articles of value and one even more so. Two other pieces on wider CT policy will appear on the current MI5 warning thread.
Prospect magazine, with a short piece 'After Charlie Hebdo: Muslims in France' and the subtitle we must note:
Only a handful of French Muslims are violent extremists
Link:http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/after-charlie-hebdo-muslims-in-france-charlie-hebdo-attack-shooting-islam
A long, academic paper written by two Norwegian analysts (why does Norway have so many good analysts on terrorism @ FFI?), which takes a very broad outlook 'The Modus Operandi of Jihadi Terrorists in Europe':http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/388/html
A Canadian article on what did the suspect's neioghbours do and know:
A neighbour in Gennevilliers told The Globe and Mail that she and her husband became so concerned about the behaviour of the Kouachi brothers – whom they could hear loudly reciting the Koran inside their apartment at all hours – that her husband and a friend decided to break in to the Kouachi residence when the brothers left to buy groceries. She said they found a “cache of arms” inside.She said they were caught when the brothers returned home, and that they shoved her husband around and threatened him into silence. That was two months ago.
Link:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/suspects-in-paris-shooting-had-cache-of-arms-neighbour-says/article22372220/
That is very interesting to the thread 'What & Who discovers terrorist plots?' I started on:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=13925
Finally I really do think omarali50's post (as below) was superb. The "blowback" aspect should not be forgotten, even if it was seen then and maybe even now as necessary to cause the USSR's downfall.
Theology can catch up later. Once Western powers (or China, as the case may be) get past their postmodern confusions and ruling elites in several "Muslim" countries decisively turn against the use of Jihadism as a useful tool, the game is up as far as practical problems go. Residual Kharijite cells will wreak havoc in under-governed and ungoverned areas for decades but fewer and fewer people will care.
Why do I say this? because when I read the history of the last 200 years in our region (and I read a lot of it), I don't see some permanent state of war between Jihadists on one side and modernists/imperialists/whateverists on the other. The theology of Islam was the same as it is today, but it took the CIA and the ISI and Saudi money to convert latent Jihadism into functional terrorist armies. State support was crucial at every step. They are NOT self-sufficent even in propaganda. Now, certainly, they have become more capable and more autonomous over time, but there is still NO comparison between the resources of a modern state and the resources and capabilities of any Jihadist group (not even IS). In Afghanistan (the worst possible case for state building) the new-colonial Afghan state (to use Tariq Ali's phrase for it) would have won outright if another slightly more modern and capable state (Pakistan) had not been determined to resist that outcome.
They are not supermen. At some level they are just juvenile delinquents. Without the backing of more capable people in the background (STATES), they will be dealt with and either confined to hellholes or wiped out.
I have to flesh this idea out someday :)
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 04:39 PM
This is why the Islamic Learning Centers of the ME must get into the debate between the peace and war wings of Islam as the war wing tends to harbor a number of Islamic interpretations that sometimes do not fit even the Koran.
Fareed Zakaria writes that death for blasphemy is prescribed in the Bible but not the Koran.
http://fb.me/7mEeBVdGC
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 04:59 PM
While an interesting Shia statement he tends to forget Shia militia killings and beheadings in Sunni villages and towns currently and their ethnic cleansing in the 2006/07 periods in Iraq.
The leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah group says Islamic extremists have insulted Islam and the Prophet Mohammed more than those who published satirical cartoons mocking the religion.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah did not directly mention the Paris attack on the offices of Charlie Hebdo that left 12 people dead, but he said Islamic extremists who behead and slaughter people — a reference to the IS group's rampages in Iraq and Syria — have done more harm to Islam than anyone else in history.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.636240?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Rouhani condemns terrorism via twitter - a medium blocked in Iran - while actively funding Shi'ite terrorist group.
*Irony meter explodes*
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 05:08 PM
Appears the Russians know something we do not?
Major Russian TV network says US intelligence carried out the Charlie Hebdo attack
http://www.vox.com/2015/1/8/7514439/charlie-hebdo-russia-cia …
Seems the Russian infowar types know more than we do here at SWJ:
Russia's chief halal expert suggests Paris terrorists were in fact policemen in disguise.
pic.twitter.com/u2hutFc9GU
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 05:11 PM
Now this is what the entire western security services should be doing on a daily basis. So much for the famed NSA.
Watch: Hacker group says it will avenge #CharlieHebdo attack by shutting down jihadi websites
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11335676/Hacktivists-Anonymous-says-it-will-avenge-Charlie-Hebdo-attacks-by-shutting-down-jihadist-websites.html …
pic.twitter.com/nvMO0r45SI
OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 08:08 PM
Notice the not so subtle double standard of the West--we condemn Islamic terrorists in France but utter not a single word when Islamic terrorists fight in the Ukraine.
"Islamist Terrorists" as the West would call them fight in Ukraine against Ukrainians
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ui0wNlYsZo … …
pic.twitter.com/vysr7wQKqn
OUTLAW 09
01-10-2015, 08:24 AM
This is why the Islamic Learning Centers of the ME must get into the debate between the peace and war wings of Islam as the war wing tends to harbor a number of Islamic interpretations that sometimes do not fit even the Koran.
Fareed Zakaria writes that death for blasphemy is prescribed in the Bible but not the Koran.
http://fb.me/7mEeBVdGC
While many French Muslims in street interviews have condemned the killers as not being Muslims ---the four top Islamic Centers of Learning and Law on the problem with their "fundamentalists" are remarkably silent and therein lies the problem--they could if they wanted to--and yes even I can argue from what I learned from "fundamentalists" in Iraq use the Koran to "prove" they are not Muslims--BUT until we hear the top learning centers utter those words.
The killing will continue to occur globally.
HERE is though the problem for the West--while we totally condemn "terrorists" in Paris---we the world and the global media utter not a single word about Chechen Islamists being used by Russia in the Ukraine to kill Ukrainians or we fail to utter a word when our air strikes are killing Syrian/Iraqi civilians and we fail to utter a single word about the latest massacre by BH in Nigeria of over 2000.
A highly respected US professor and expert in international relations stated something yesterday that is interesting and yet we ignore him-- reality based action can be taken and one still can have your own personal morals---the two do not negate each other.
Right now we have virtually no foreign policy nor strategies for anything ongoing in the world.
davidbfpo
01-10-2015, 02:39 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6_bo8JIgAAfxsK.jpg
Not clear where this came from, it was on Twitter earlier today.
davidbfpo
01-10-2015, 02:43 PM
Olivier Roy is a true SME on Islam in France and the title says something we often miss:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/olivier-roy/paris-attack-muslim-cliches_b_6445582.html
Roughly speaking, two narratives are conflicting: the dominant one claims that Islam is the main issue, because it puts loyalty toward the faith community before loyalty to the nation, it does not accept criticism, does not compromise on norms and values and condones specific forms of violence like jihad. For the adherents of this narrative, the only solution is a theological reformation that would generate a "good" Islam that is a liberal, feminist and gay-friendly religion. Journalists and politicians are always tracking the "good Muslims" and summoning them to show their credentials as "moderate."On the other side, many Muslims, secular or believers, supported by a multiculturalist left, claim that radicalization does not come from Islam but from disenfranchised youth who are victims of racism and exclusion, and that the real issue is Islamophobia. They condemn terrorism while denouncing the backlash that could in turn radicalize more Muslim youth.
The problem is that both narratives presuppose the existence of a French "Muslim community" of which the terrorists are a sort of "vanguard."
The juxtaposition of these two narratives has created a deadlock. To overcome this, it is necessary to first take into account a number of inescapable facts -- facts which we do not want to acknowledge because they show us that the radicalized young people are in no way the vanguard or the spokesmen of the Muslim population, and in particular, that there is no "Muslim community" in France.
Radicalized young people, who rely heavily on an imagined Muslim politics (the Ummah of earlier times) are deliberately at odds with the Islam of their parents, as well as Muslim culture overall.
davidbfpo
01-10-2015, 03:09 PM
The French press via Twitter are reporting that a Malian Muslim employee at the kosher shop, a Lassana Bathily, saved several / six hostages by hiding them in the basement.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6_QmB-CYAATYv-.jpg
(Added) A report on his actions (in English):http://www.jewishnews.co.uk/paris-terror-muslim-employee-kosher-deli-hid-hostages-freezer/
THis report is in French, I've no idea what it actually says:http://m.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/video-porte-de-vincennes-un-salarie-de-l-epicerie-a-cache-des-otages-10-01-2015-4435025.php#xtref=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FVEGXqxIVQQ
davidbfpo
01-10-2015, 04:55 PM
Paris chief prosecutor Francois Molins told a press briefing that the two Kouachi brothers and Coulibaly had an arsenal of weapons and had set up booby traps.
"A M82 rocket launcher with a loaded rocket - I insist on this, a loaded rocket - ten smoke grenades, two Kalashnikov machine guns and two automatic pistols were discovered," Molins said, speaking about scene after the print shop assault. The bomb-disposal specialists even found a grenade on the body of one of the terrorists, which had been placed as a trap," Molins added.
He said Coulibaly had attacked police forces with a Kalashnikov assault rifle and a "Skorpion" military pistol. After he was shot, police found two Russian-made Tokarev pistols, two machine guns, a bullet-proof vest and ammunition in the kosher supermarket.
Link:http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Kouachi-brothers-had-a-massive-weapons-arsenal-and-set-booby-traps-387273
davidbfpo
01-10-2015, 05:16 PM
Predictably there are comments whether the "dots were joined up", was it an intelligence failure or a political decision on the strategy.
Shashank Joshi (RUSI) concludes:
The new challenge isn't the prioritisation of threats, but the growing mismatch between the number of potential threats and limited resources
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30760656
Professor John Schindler has a more caustic comment and points his finger at the politicians:
The real problem is that French politicians, as in all Western countries, have absolutely no idea what to do with the burgeoning numbers of aspiring jihadist killers in their midst.
Link:http://20committee.com/2015/01/10/there-was-no-intelligence-failure-in-paris/
OUTLAW 09
01-10-2015, 05:23 PM
Nicely done video showing the movements of Buk 3x2, linked to the downing of #MH17, in Russia
http://youtu.be/OMUmoMS2h-c
Russian Orthodox jihadists and Islamic jihadists share much in common. #MH17
Hazballah's Nasrallah says takfiris are more offensive than #CharlieHebdo cartoons.
http://rt.com/news/221343-hezbollah-nasrallah-charlie-offends/ …
OUTLAW 09
01-10-2015, 07:27 PM
Rouhani condemns terrorism via twitter - a medium blocked in Iran - while actively funding Shi'ite terrorist group.
*Irony meter explodes*
Worth remembering that Iran orchestrated the 1986-7 wave of bombings in France to pressure Paris to lessen its arming of Saddam's Iraq.
OUTLAW 09
01-10-2015, 10:56 PM
Well worth the reading of this short article.
http://news.yahoo.com/violence-fuels-debate-among-muslims-over-interpreting-faith-155204524.html
OUTLAW 09
01-11-2015, 10:24 AM
Putin doesn't really need nukes, has so may idiots to play with. Now FSB is planting the idea that Israel did it. #charliehebdo
Lavrov will be at Paris Sunday defending "free speech" - Not in Moscow where 2 activists were arrested Yesterday with signes #jesuischarlie
Chechen Leader Threatens Radio Echo of Moscow after Poll Shows Support for #CharlieHebdo
http://thebea.st/1xQY2UC
pic.twitter.com/iyIpcN5sGY
OUTLAW 09
01-11-2015, 12:07 PM
Taken from a commentary on the UK MI5 Chief's public statement and citing a British military historian:
Michael Howard notes that fundamentalist Muslims feel a much stronger attachment to their tribe or sect than to any nation state. Jihadism, he says, represents a response to ‘the challenge of a secular, urban civilisation that threatens to destroy their traditional values and beliefs’.
It took us, in the West, about three centuries after the Enlightenment — when reason and individualism began to assert themselves in the 17th and 18th centuries — to become comfortable with what we now call cultural freedom.
We cannot expect doctrinaire Muslim societies from the East, which have fomented radicalism throughout the world, to do so in a few years.
‘It is not surprising that a fanatical minority, inspired by a romantic longing to return to the doctrines and practices of a pure Islam, aim at destroying the Western civilisation that they see as debauching the purity of their own culture and beliefs,’ says Howard.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2904237/MAX-HASTINGS-liberals-defended-traitors-like-Snowden-Assange-look-photo-admit-deluded-fools.html#ixzz3OVuhqdYC
OUTLAW 09
01-11-2015, 12:28 PM
But on the other side of the coin from the MI5 comments--we the West seem to have a disconnect when it comes to the Ukraine where Chechen "Russian jihadists" are fighting the Ukrainian Army and civilians in eastern Ukraine--and absolutely nothing is being said.
So I guess the old saying of one man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorist is actually true as we use the term "separatists" when discussing Russian recruited, supported and paid for mercenaries that do not even come from eastern Ukraine.
Inch'Allah!
Chechen-Russian invasion forces in the center of #Donetsk city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR9Uj3lrCH4 …
pic.twitter.com/bDLpEM7MD5
"Local Separatists" NOT Islamic terrorists like the West would call them in Paris
davidbfpo
01-11-2015, 12:50 PM
Lt.Col. Tim Collins was a British Army officer, noted for his pre-Iraq War One speech to his infantry battallion and he served in the SAS. His comment opens with:
In the world of counter-terrorism and special forces, it must be said that the French carried out an amazing feat on Friday. They deserve the grateful thanks of their nation and the admiration of the international community. What we witnessed was two simultaneous “immediate actions”. These are the hardest to pull off, and the French forces managed the equivalent of two drop-goals in rugby under great pressure.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11337334/Col-Tim-Collins-We-can-learn-from-the-deadly-tactics-of-Frances-elite-police.html? (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11337334/Col-Tim-Collins-We-can-learn-from-the-deadly-tactics-of-Frances-elite-police.html?WT.mc_id=e_3825379&WT.tsrc=email&etype=frontpage&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_2015_1_11&utm_campaign=3825379)
OUTLAW 09
01-11-2015, 02:38 PM
Russian Orthodox Church under Putin similar to Islamic extremism: Both ideologies that distort & subvert religion to justify amoral conduct.
OUTLAW 09
01-11-2015, 03:21 PM
But on the other side of the coin from the MI5 comments--we the West seem to have a disconnect when it comes to the Ukraine where Chechen "Russian jihadists" are fighting the Ukrainian Army and civilians in eastern Ukraine--and absolutely nothing is being said.
So I guess the old saying of one man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorist is actually true as we use the term "separatists" when discussing Russian recruited, supported and paid for mercenaries that do not even come from eastern Ukraine.
Inch'Allah!
Chechen-Russian invasion forces in the center of #Donetsk city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR9Uj3lrCH4 …
pic.twitter.com/bDLpEM7MD5
"Local Separatists" NOT Islamic terrorists like the West would call them in Paris
Dudayev Battalion fr Caucasus (Chechens, Dagestanians, Ingushetians) fights against Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/BsbqvcBzrL
OUTLAW 09
01-11-2015, 04:20 PM
Massive number of French Imams marched today in Paris with the French Muslim community which has equally stood up in the streets together with Jewish French to protest against jihadism which is really a form of Islamic fascism together with a number representatives of the ME countries--striking.
Even the King of Jordan a true descendent of Mohammed was there and if that is not a statement.
Maybe the centers of Islamic learning in the four centers need to pay attention to their flock as it seems they are getting tried of being tarred and feathered by the "war wing" of Islam.
We all tend to forget that a majority of the victims of jihadists are in fact Muslims.
BUT then we the US seem to be absent--
And where was @JohnKerry? Just reinforcing the message that the US is no longer a reliable partner
Not when most countries send higher delegations. Kerry, if not Obama should have been there.
davidbfpo
01-11-2015, 11:06 PM
The French police officer, Ahmed Merabet, who was murdered last week in Paris, will not be forgotten there soon.
His family gave a press conference yesterday, his brother also a police officer said:
My brother was Muslim and he was killed by two terrorists, by two false Muslims....Islam is a religion of peace and love. As far as my brother’s death is concerned it was a waste. He was very proud of the name Ahmed Merabet, proud to represent the police and of defending the values of the Republic – liberty, equality, fraternity.
I address myself now to all the racists, Islamophobes and antisemites. One must not confuse extremists with Muslims. Mad people have neither colour or religion.
I want to make another point: don’t tar everybody with the same brush, don’t burn mosques – or synagogues. You are attacking people. It won’t bring our dead back and it won’t appease the families.
A colleague tweeted:
I am not Charlie, I am Ahmed the dead cop. Charlie ridiculed my faith and culture and I died defending his right to do so.
Link with short video:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/10/charlie-hebdo-policeman-murder-ahmed-merabet?
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/1/11/1420937858906/82251a2c-be14-4c0d-8190-276df28a9779-bestSizeAvailable.jpeg
OUTLAW 09
01-12-2015, 12:36 PM
Komsomolskaya Pravda uses its first front page of the year to ask: DID THE AMERICANS PLAN THE PARIS TERROR ATTACK?
pic.twitter.com/l5OzTLgv2G
OUTLAW 09
01-12-2015, 02:50 PM
Komsomolskaya Pravda uses its first front page of the year to ask: DID THE AMERICANS PLAN THE PARIS TERROR ATTACK?
pic.twitter.com/l5OzTLgv2G
There has been a few twitter comments of potential Chechen contacts to the three killers in Paris and some indications the weapons might have been smuggled from Chechnya.
When the Russian MFA starts carrying the same lies as their news media then Russia is defending itself from something.
Kremlin's "USA did it" disinformation re #CharlieHebdo began last week
http://20committee.com/2015/01/08/after-paris-the-kremlins-new-message/ …, now reached top of MFA
http://tass.ru/en/world/770765
OUTLAW 09
01-12-2015, 04:26 PM
There has been a few twitter comments of potential Chechen contacts to the three killers in Paris and some indications the weapons might have been smuggled from Chechnya.
When the Russian MFA starts carrying the same lies as their news media then Russia is defending itself from something.
Kremlin's "USA did it" disinformation re #CharlieHebdo began last week
http://20committee.com/2015/01/08/after-paris-the-kremlins-new-message/ …, now reached top of MFA
http://tass.ru/en/world/770765
#Russia:
We didn't shoot down #MH17
#CharlieHebdo was attacked by #CIA trained killers
We have no troops in #Ukraine
Only we speak the truth
jcustis
01-12-2015, 05:16 PM
Sadly David, his story will not get an appropriate degree of attention for the truth holds, because it doesn't fit the narratives of the inciters feeding on this incident. Great post nonetheless.
mirhond
01-12-2015, 06:16 PM
For me personally, the most tragic part of this massacre is that these poor cartoonists have been killed for publishing dull and lame ####. What a pity that really sharp and blasphemous satire of bete&mechant Hara Kiri magazine degraded to this miserable wretchedness.
OUTLAW 09
01-12-2015, 06:21 PM
For me personally, the most tragic part of this massacre is that these poor cartoonists have been killed for publishing dull and lame ####. What a pity that really sharp and blasphemous satire of bete&mechant Hara Kiri magazine degraded to this miserable wretchedness.
and mirhond you speak French you say?
if you spoke French then you would understand the cartoons--but hey AQ and IS does.
davidbfpo
01-12-2015, 07:21 PM
Once again Clint Watts, SWC member, offers a far-reaching commentary if not analysis on terrorism and counter-terrorism after Paris:http://warontherocks.com/2015/01/inspired-networked-directed-the-muddled-jihad-of-isis-al-qaeda-post-hebdo/?singlepage=1
I do wonder if Paris will inspire other loners and brothers to attack. Or will it inspire them to fight in The Levant, where training aside they may die.
davidbfpo
01-12-2015, 10:43 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7J0YxtIQAEsQq1.jpg
Yes there is a need for security, with so many VIPs, but yesterday the BBC reported and showed images of the leaders at the head of the march. Well, they were not.
OUTLAW 09
01-13-2015, 10:32 AM
Is there freedom of the press in the UK and US such as in France--interesting question. Interesting that we the US claim our personal freedoms were enshrined in those of France--but were they really?
Is there a difference in the definition of free speech between Anglo Saxon countries and France--interesting question.
BBC, CNN, NBC, NPR all not showing Charlie Hebdo cover. Are they / we getting it right? Keen to discuss on @BBCOS.
This self "constraint" or "self censorship" was started also by these media outlets when they digitized CH covers in order to "not offend" although the same cartoonists died defending their rights to free speech/expression.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30790409 …
OUTLAW 09
01-13-2015, 11:00 AM
We talk about freedom of the press and yet the current Turkish leader is heck bent on making Turkey an Islamic state instead of the Ataturk dream of a secular state and is trying to reinvent the Ottoman Empire--he does have some commonalities with Putin.
Turkey cancels press cards of 94 prominent journalists, who have been doing journalism in Turkey for more than 20 years.
davidbfpo
01-13-2015, 11:31 AM
Via Twitter from @eottolenghi (https://twitter.com/eottolenghi)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7BVxKtCEAIqPLQ.jpg
davidbfpo
01-13-2015, 02:06 PM
Charlie Hebdo attack: French police response helped by mass support
Big Question: France has shown a great degree of preparedness given the extraordinary difficulty of the Charlie Hebdo crisis
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11339975/Charlie-Hebdo-attack-French-police-response-helped-by-mass-support.html
DNA that done it (for one murderer):
the identity of Coulibaly was determined with a DNA check on his balaclava left at the scene.
davidbfpo
01-13-2015, 02:09 PM
Paris’s Muslim Suburbs Blame Jews for CharlieIn France, the projects don’t look like ghettoes, but they’re filled with a poisonous mix of conspiracy theories and a some support for murderous jihadis.
Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/13/jihad-fanboys-in-the-paris-burbs.html?
omarali50
01-13-2015, 07:07 PM
Re Clint Watts article. He says
The success of the Tsarnaev brothers and now the Kouachi brothers demonstrates that such a spectacular attack may not be needed to seem spectacular to the media. Both in Boston and now Paris, smaller scale, more conventional attacks informed by Inspire thinking have achieved at low cost what al Qaeda has failed to do in almost a decade. How many al Qaeda, Islamic State, or independent plots will now follow the Tsarnaev-Kouachi model, and what will the implications be for law enforcement?
I was thinking "what would i say if i put on my optimistic hat and ignore ALL misgivings". Just as an experiment, here it is:
I think the already installed Jihadist and conspiracy memes in Muslim population in Europe make some more attacks inevitable, but if there is a firm response and if important Muslim states become fully committed to stopping this (based on carrots, but mostly sticks, human nature being what it is) then the peak will pass relatively quickly. Support within the wider Western Muslim community is falling, not rising (and will fall with increasing rapidity if current trends hold). Muslims are not from outer space. They are human beings responding to received wisdom and learning from experience. Some communities have such a mass of Islamists (in some cases, encouraged and supported by host nation policies in the past; England I am looking at you) that it will take a while to change things, but the majority is not willing to risk life, limb and job prospects for the sake of the caliphate. If Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arabs no longer pay for Jihadism (and their official policy is already shifting, private individuals will follow in due time) and if Pakistan no longer offers sanctuary, where will the networks be based? Somalia, Yemen, IS, Libya, Eastern Afghanistan, all these are not connected to the global grid like Pakistan or the Gulf states are. Turkey will be a mess for a while (almost certainly their Jihad experience has not peaked yet), but it is still a strong state and will eventually have to crack down.
The longer term looks hopeful.
Optimistic hat firmly in place :)
Big question while writing this optimistic paragraph: I have no clue how badly ghettoised the Muslim communities in continental Europe actually are. I dont think England is as bad as sometimes painted. But I have no clue about the continent. Suppose they have no prospects and are just going to burn till gone? (I hope not).
omarali50
01-14-2015, 07:44 PM
What is it about the modern liberal elite that makes it susceptible to these memes? (“the West is responsible for these killings” or “the cartoonists were racist rightwing fascists who got what they deserved”, “people who are defending free speech are Whitesplaining and dont get the true awful condition of Western civilization”)
Could it be something stuctural that will reassert itself after the first shock of the Hebdo episode has passed?
And another tangential point: I think we should distinguish between two kinds of PC-leftists. Those who are ignorant or foolish or blinded by political correctness (Fisk?) and those who are deliberately cherry-picking or exaggerating or even lying in order to advance the cause of world revolution (“all is fair in love and war”).
I am reproducing a description of these two groups I wrote on another friend’s blog post (http://leftfootforward.org/2015/01/why-it-is-wrong-to-blame-western-policies-for-the-paris-attacks/), if I am completely on the wrong track, set me right!
1. A small percentage of the “I am not Charlie Hebdo” crowd still believe they are part of some vanguard revolutionary army, fighting (mostly clandestinely, and shadowed therefore by the secret police of the empire) to overthrow the world capitalist system as part of a planet-wide resistance movement led by the Soviet Union and the comintern (or, even better, by the fourth international or the fifth or an even purer and cleaner sixth). I guess Tariq Ali would fall into this group. In his own mind he is like Victor Lazlo, slipping in and out of outposts of the empire with the Gestapo one step behind him. Therefore in his case (and that of others living out a similar movie-based fantasy) one does not have to posit ignorance. Calculation is more likely; the world revolution must use this event (and EVERY event) to further the revolutionary cause and if that requires making up stories and nasty insinuations about dead cartoonists (and linking them to the actually right-wing Jylland Posten and implying that they would insult Mohammed, but never Moses, as Tariq slimily did on “Democracy Now”) is par for the course.
2. A much larger group (Fisk among them) is simply partaking in the ancient pleasure of feeling simultaneously superior and guilty. Superior by implying that “we” (the West) are the only people capable of DOING things, while childlike simple people (aka “the oppressed”, which list conveniently includes Hafez Assad and even Mao) react helplessly and chaotically to our schemes and conquests. Guilty at the crimes committed in “our name”. Then EVEN MORE SUPERIOR in the feeling that we few, we happy few, are able to see through this charade and pass our wisdom on to the toiling brain-damaged masses who look up to us as moral and intellectual giants.
Something like that.
Any takers who can fix these thoughts or flesh them out?
AdamG
01-16-2015, 01:56 PM
19,000 French civilian websites are under attack by hackers, according to France's head of cyberdefense. The scope of attacks is unprecedented, Rear Admiral Arnaud Coustillire said at a press conference Thursday.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/technology/security/french-websites-hacked/index.html
davidbfpo
01-17-2015, 12:27 PM
A long report 'How did the Paris terrorists get hold of their weapons', with the sub-title:
Said and Cherif Kouachi and Amedy Coulibaly had amassed a €25,000 arsenal, including Kalashnikovs, rocket launchers, grenades and tear gas cannisters. How did they get hold of their weapons, and where did they come from?
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11351855/How-did-the-Paris-terrorists-get-hold-of-their-weapons.html
davidbfpo
01-17-2015, 01:37 PM
omarali50 asked a few days ago for some responses, so here goes. I cite him in part, specifically on two aspects:
Some communities have such a mass of Islamists (in some cases, encouraged and supported by host nation policies in the past; England I am looking at you) that it will take a while to change things, but the majority is not willing to risk life, limb and job prospects for the sake of the caliphate.
The number of Islamists is far from a 'mass' in England. For varied reasons, including the Islamists welcoming most media coverage; in public their numbers are often quite small and even in private rarely in large numbers. I exclude some annual conferences that critics say are non-violent extremists, which usually happen in London's East End.
From my own extended interaction in one English city, with a significant Muslim faith community (around 20%), the vast majority have always rejected the Islamist message and know whatever their problems the city offers a far better hoem for them and their families than elsewhere. This has manifested itself with visiting Islamists facing direct action when setting up stalls etc - "You are not welcome here". One well known Muslim is known to have had a radical period, but is widely held to have stopped inner-city, communal rioting a few years ago.
Yes there are Islamists, many of them well known locally and often best avoided. Their access to mosques for example is very, very limited and generally they are excluded from youth events for example. Whether their numbers have expanded is a moot point. One observer noted now three years ago attitudes to the violent jihad changed first after 9/11, then 7/7.
As for the responsibility of the nation-state and government in your words 'encouraged and supported' that is partly true. The 'Londonistan' claims notably, over a "blind eye" to preaching and more. I have heard a senior civil servant claim this came about because of low-level policy decisions, not government policy - which is to say the least 'economical with the truth'.
There is also the far wider debate over multi-culturalism, political correctness and other phrases - whether they gave the Islamists a "free run".
Big question while writing this optimistic paragraph: I have no clue how badly ghettoised the Muslim communities in continental Europe actually are. I dont think England is as bad as sometimes painted.
The Muslim communities in England are that communities. Some share their faith, which is visible at a number of mosques. Long established communities like the Yemeni and the (old) Somali have settled in coastal cities, with a level of integration. Some communities have a large minority that are professionals, very few of them remain where the majority live in old industrial towns and the inner cities.
In such places it is easy to label the areas as ghettoes, as the are the majority community, both visibly on the street and in private. Schools are the best indicator and as the 'Trojan Horse' allegations found a small number of schools in Birmingham had a 95% plus pupils of the Muslim faith.
Labour and social mobility can be very limited. Some of this is due to employment, the economy and family / individual choice to remain at home with the familiar.
None of these places are 'no go' areas. Research has found repeatedly those places and their residents want good policing. Yes sometimes policing needs to be more sensitive when it does something new, e.g. Project Champion.
AdamG
01-17-2015, 05:23 PM
Derka Derka Brace for Impact
Separately, a Western intelligence source told CNN national correspondent Deborah Feyerick that the threat appears to involve as many as 20 sleeper cells of between 120 and 180 people ready to strike in France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/16/world/europe-terrorism-questions/
omarali50
01-20-2015, 02:16 AM
I just put together a post about blasphemy, blasphemy laws, Pakistan and Charlie Hebdo that gives a lot of background. Since it is a long post, I am reproducing an excerpt and the last section here, you can see the rest to get the context..and the hyperlinks (which did not transfer with cut and paste but explain a lot stuff):
In short, killing blasphemers is considered a highly admirable deed by a very large number of people in Pakistan (and probably in several other Islamicate nations). While it is indeed true that misuse of the law has become common after General Zia’s time (an intended consequence, as one aim of such laws is to harass and browbeat all potential opposition), the law has deeper roots and liberals who believe that it is possible to make a distinction between true blasphemy and misuse of the law, may find that this line is not easy to draw. The second, and perhaps more potent reason the law will not be repealed is because the law was consciously meant to promote the Islamist project that the deep state (or a powerful section of the deep state) continues to desire in Pakistan. The blasphemy law is a ready-made weapon against all secular opposition to the military-mullah alliance (though some sections of the military now seem to have abandoned that alliance, hence the qualification “section of the deep state”). Secular parties are suspected of being soft on India and are considered a danger to the Kashmir Jihad and other projects dear to the heart of the deep state. At the same time, Islamist parties provide ideological support and manpower for those beloved causes. In this way, the officers of the deep state, even when they are not personally religious, recognize the need for an alliance with religious parties and against secular political forces (Musharraf was a good example). They may have been forced into an uneasy (temporary?) compromise with secular parties by circumstances beyond their control (aka America) but with American withdrawal coming soon, the deep state may not wish to alienate its mullah constituency too much. They will be needed again once the Yankees are gone. Hence too, no repeal at this time.
...Longer term, the outcome in Western countries is likely to be more blasphemy, not less (things will be more confused in the world's largest democracy). And it will not all be some principled defense of free speech. In terms of abstract principle, the French (and many other European countries) are not without their own hypocrisies. Many European countries have laws against "hate speech" , holocaust denial and even blasphemy that are a mockery of free speech (and that do not really promote the peace and harmony they are supposed to be promoting; see a must read article by Sam Schulman on this issue) They frequently do not apply these laws, or fail to convict when they do apply them (and punishments are very very mild), so the actual situation on the ground is not as bad as it is in many Islamicate or Marxicate countries, but it is certainly not ideal. The United States is, in terms of abstract principles, probably the best country in the world for freedom of expression. As in all human endeavors, there is some distance between the ideal and the practice even in these United States, but legal restrictions on freedom of expression are lower in the US than in any country I can think of (past or present). Thank Allah for the first amendment.
But while discussions of abstract principle have their place, they can also distract from far more obvious and simpler points. In this case, here is the situation: there are people of many religions in Europe, in Japan, in China, in the Americas (North AND South) and in all these religions (except Islam) it is now the norm to argue about the foundational myths and to make fun of them. Some people take them literally (in ALL religions), many people deeply respect them, but some find them totally unbelievable and others just make jokes about them. In this atmosphere, you have a Muslim population that is asking for very special treatment for their particular myths. They are saying (in effect) that not only will WE live under rules XYZ, we want EVERYONE to live under rules XYZ. But they (and their intellectually more sophisticated defenders in the Western liberal elite) also insist they are not different in principle from anyone else. They also have ongoing and historic disputes with many groups (including, for example, right wing anti-immigrant politicians, Zionists, Jews in general, Christian religious nutjobs, Serbs, etc etc). In this setting, how likely is it that everyone in Western societies will accept MUSLIM rules that even some Muslims find unbearably oppressive? ...I think it is not very likely.
btw, Charlie Hebdo itself has come out of this tragedy with flying colors. The accusation that they are some kind of racist right wing publication was a canard in any case, and their current issue proves it. You can read more about it here.
Anyway, here are my predictions:
1. More blasphemy in the West. Things will go back and forth, but the overall trend is that Islamicate taboos on satirizing Islam will gradually fall, as will taboos on discussing early Islamic history any differently from the histories of other religions or other ideologies. There will be more attacks, more Islamophobia (both real as well as imagined-SOAS-type Islamophobia) and more unpleasantness all around, but the overall trend will be towards more criticism and more satire and ever fewer taboos.
2. In the Islamicate core, blasphemy will remain a huge big deal and many more people may yet share the fate of Raif Badawi (or worse), but the internet will ensure that the discussions that will become common in the West will slowly make their way into the Islamicate core as well. But they will invite a backlash and in places (like Pakistan) things will get worse before they get better.
3. PostMarxist thinkers will split further, with some joining the critics of Islamicate taboos and other defending them in the cause of fighting Islamophobia. Many of them will continue to insist (not always without justification) that the "real issues" are economic or political, not religious, and that Islamophobia is real and the people on Fox News really do have more power than the Islamists still living in Western Muslim communities, but the circle within which religion is ALWAYS "not the real issue" will shrink, not expand. This is not of much interest to many people (since Post-Marxists don't actually run the world, in the "West" or the "East"), but is always of interest to some of us because of the friends and family we hang out with. It will not be a happy few years in this circle as things in the Islamicate core get worse, Islamophobia (the actual cases) gets worse and neither Zionists nor Palestinians get to win cleanly. I feel a bit sad about this.
4. "Reform Islam" (consciously or unconsciously modeled on Reform Judaism) as promoted by people like Reza Aslan or Karen Armstrong may eventually become a real thing, with some sort of coherent theological framework and it's own network of mosques and religous teachers, but we are nowhere close to it being a reality already. The notion that there is already some kind of "moderate Islam" that lies hidden under a recent Wahabi overlay and can be recovered by promoting Sufiism and the poetry of Maulana Rumi is highly exaggerated. Blasphemy and apostasy, for example, are capital crimes in ALL major sects of Islam and a few superficial books from Reza Aslan or Armstrong are not enough to change that. On the other hand, where there is damand, someone will eventually provide supply. These books are not completely useless. In the years to come, other, more subtle, more knowledgeable and more sophisticated thinkers will no doubt create such Islams (plural) in the Western world and in China. But not so easily in the Islamicate core. Things there will get worse before they get better. Dr Ali Minai has an excellent piece about some of the work that will have to be done.
It may be trivial, but 'Je suis Charlie' seems an especially fitting response as the name Charles comes from the Germanic root for 'free man'. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles) I think the response by the French public was grand and a much stronger showing of European and Western ideals then some of the political responses. In some cases it seemed to me that the desire to show action to the public was greater then cool reasoning on behalf of the people.
Bill Moore
01-21-2015, 01:58 AM
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/20/paris-wants-to-sue-fox-news/22062179/
Paris mayor may sue Fox News over no-go-zones report
Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo told CNN Tuesday that she may sue Fox News because the network "insulted" the city with its coverage of "no-go zones" that are supposedly only for Muslim residents.
Such zones don't exist and Fox News has repeatedly apologized for the errors.
For those who are fortunate enough not to be tortured by U.S. entertainment media mislabeled as news, Fox News is one of our news programs notorious for its inaccurate reporting to push a political agenda. It is good to see them held accountable, but it isn't the only clownish news station.
The inaccurate reporting of the 4th estate isn't a minor issue, these reports shape public opinion, which in turn shapes political decisions. Recent incidents in the U.S. concerning police shootings of blacks has resulted in inaccurate news reporting. CNN reported excessively on one of these incidents (Ferguson) by speculating, creating perceptions that were proven to be false. This resulted in officers being judged by misinformed public opinion before the legal process could actually sort out the facts. Sad state of affairs, certainly not new, but one would think the public would hold the media more accountable when the mistakes clearly are not accidental.
davidbfpo
01-22-2015, 01:52 PM
A useful contribution via WoTR by Lorenzo Vidrino, a European SME, which will be copied to the Paris attacks thread too: 'Wrong assumptions, integration, responsibility and counterterrorism in France':http://warontherocks.com/2015/01/wrong-assumptions-integration-responsibility-and-counterterrorism-in-france/?singlepage=1
This passage needs some explanation or sources, with my emphasis:
On the other side, the rhetoric (particularly in some quarters of the U.S. debate) about the French suburbs (banlieues) often populated by large minority communities) is largely exaggerated. It is undeniable that areas like Les Minguettes in Venissieux (Lyon) or Clichy sous Bois (outside of Paris) are not exactly St. Tropez or central Paris. But they are not the lawless and squalid “no-go” zones they are often made out to be. In fact, based on crime rates, health care, education, and public transportation, the banlieues are actually significantly better off than neglected cities and communities in the United States.
SWJ Blog
02-02-2015, 11:15 PM
Urban Siege in Paris: A Spectrum of Armed Assault (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/urban-siege-in-paris-a-spectrum-of-armed-assault)
Entry Excerpt:
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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
davidbfpo
02-03-2015, 05:12 PM
A five man Army patrol in Nice attacked:
Two soldiers on patrol near a Jewish community centre in Nice were wounded in a knife attack on Tuesday as France maintains heightened security measures in the wake of the Paris terror attacks last month. The assailant, named as Moussa, was arrested but two people who may have been with him were believed to have fled, a police union official said.
The attacker was carrying two knives. He was arrested thanks to the intervention of two tram workers who happened to be passing, and another man....
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11387407/French-soldiers-attacked-outside-Jewish-community-centre-in-Nice.html
Considering France has a large number of police officers, including considerable numbers who are para-military (CRS & Gendarmerie), I was surprised to see:
More than 10,000 soldiers have since been deployed around the country to protect sensitive locations, including shopping areas, synagogues, mosques, community centres, airports and railway stations.
davidbfpo
02-07-2015, 06:52 PM
A typically optimstic report, from the banlieu Trappes south-west of Paris:http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21642186-french-prime-ministers-use-word-apartheid-provokes-reactions-and-some
It ends with a personal story which illustrates nothing is predictable:
Back in Trappes, Bachir Hajjoubi prepares to collect his children from school. The son of a Moroccan labourer, he has an administrative job in a glass-engraving works in Mesnil-le-Roi, an hour away by train, and coaches boys in football. “I love France,” he says. But he worries about youngsters who “become radicalised through rejection”. Was Mr Valls right to speak of apartheid? His words were “a bit strong, but also a bit true”. The paradox lies in the solution that Mr Hajjoubi has found for his own sons. He took them out of the local state primary and put them into a private Catholic school—where, with a big share of Muslim pupils, ethnic and religious diversity thrives.
davidbfpo
02-17-2015, 10:04 PM
The NY Review of Books has a long article on the French state education system post the Charlie Hebdo murders, disregard the provocative title:http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/mar/05/france-on-fire/
Why on SWC? As the citation notes dissent in schools with Muslim majorities was not what the rest of France thought:
What genuinely shocked the public, and the political and intellectual classes that claim to speak for it, was the news that a noticeable number of students in what are euphemistically called here les quartiers (meaning poor and heavily Muslim neighborhoods) refused to recognize the moment of silence President Hollande had called for. And not only that. Some told their teachers that the victims got what they deserved because no one should be allowed to mock the Prophet; others celebrated the killers on social media, and circulated rumors that the entire crisis was manufactured by the government and/or Zionist agents.
The extent of these incidents is impossible to measure with precision. But newspapers were full of interviews with teachers in the quartiers who reported trouble and admitted their unpreparedness for the resistance and their anxiety about addressing it. The prudent education minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, who was born in Morocco, has said that there have been at least two hundred such incidents.
Nicely put state response:
France has ten thousand more soldiers patrolling the streets, she said, but it has a million teachers at its disposal.There are few other countries where public officials would have thought it necessary to introduce an education program as an antiterrorist measure. But the modern French have always treated education as the projection screen for their anxieties and uncertainties.
omarali50
08-21-2015, 09:46 PM
Excellent.
Looks like someone did a great job. But Texans and Marines are going to be insufferable for the next few days :)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34023361
davidbfpo
08-22-2015, 06:04 PM
Well after all the initial reporting - it was not US Marines.
A USAF airman (injured so not in photos), an Oregon National Guardsman, a civilian American friend and a long-term British resident in France.
See:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34028261 and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11818320/Alek-Skarlatos-off-duty-soldier-who-tackled-train-gunman.html
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/9422/production/_85122973_85122972.jpg
davidbfpo
08-24-2015, 08:56 AM
Three Americans and a Briton have been awarded France’s highest honour – the Légion d’honneur – for their roles in stopping a suspected terrorist attack on a train.http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/17F9D/production/_85150289_028684491-1.jpghttp://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/8/24/1440403599817/6f99c1ef-b727-4b14-864e-5df0a1bfb1d0-2060x1236.jpeg?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&http://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/8/24/1440403599817/6f99c1ef-b727-4b14-864e-5df0a1bfb1d0-2060x1236.jpeg?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&
http://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/8/24/1440403599817/6f99c1ef-b727-4b14-864e-5df0a1bfb1d0-2060x1236.jpeg?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/24/legion-dhonneur-for-men-who-prevented-carnage-on-french-train
Yes, they got a local award from the Mayor of Arras, so the second fastest medals and certainly for such a medal as the Légion d’honneur.
Well there is no doubt at all that they saved many lives thanks to their quick thinking, personal bravery and decisive action. Honour where honour is due, and joy as well (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMJTycleWrc)
Every story is unique it came to a very happy ending partly due the incompetence of the wanna-be-murderer but why did those men grap their only very slim chance to stop him in such magnificient manner? There are some interesting aspects (http://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-families-are-grateful-french-train-attack-was-averted-1440272765):
1. Three of them were "childhood friends who had all attended California’s Freedom Christian School and often played military games together growing up."
2. Two of them were soldiers, maybe better American soldiers and one of them came just back from a combat tour.
3. Three were large, young and fit males.
There is no doubt that the cohesion of friendship of fit and strong men with a good deal of military training greatly facilitated their unity of action, but without their personal qualities like bravery among others those factors all would have been for naught.
davidbfpo
08-31-2015, 09:50 AM
Clarity or smoke? The true version takes time to emerge:
By then it had emerged that the first person to react, who was shot as he tried to wrestle the AK from Ayoub El-Khazzani, was French-American. And someone else was already grappling with the gunman before this first – ie second – respondent got involved. But because both wished to remain anonymous the French were left in the position, not entirely unfamiliar, of expressing gratitude for foreign help. Then the number two was revealed as Mark Moogalian (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/25/france-train-attack-american-french-professor-mark-moogalian), whose French wife came forward to explain how he had been shot after rushing the gunman and how Spencer stuck a finger into an artery to stop him bleeding out. At the time of writing the identity of the person who first confronted the gunman remains unknown.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/29/gung-ho-americans-steady-brits-and-a-lack-of-french-resistance-but-was-the-story-of-the-terror-train-really-so-clear
TheCurmudgeon
11-13-2015, 11:39 PM
Still developing - any word on responsibility for the attacks?
France has declared a national state of emergency and has closed its borders after at least 40 people were killed in multiple shootings in Paris.
At least 15 people were killed near the Bataclan arts centre, where up to 60 people are being held hostage. Explosions and gunfire are reported.
Three people were killed in an attack near the Stade de France, with some reports suggesting a suicide blast.
Paris authorities have urged people to stay indoors.
Military personnel are being deployed across Paris.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34814203
SWJ Blog
11-13-2015, 11:50 PM
Paris Attacks Live Update Sites (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/paris-attacks-live-update-sites)
Entry Excerpt:
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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
Windows97
11-14-2015, 12:51 AM
Vive la France
Windows97
11-14-2015, 12:53 AM
http://www.france24.com/en/livefeed
davidbfpo
11-14-2015, 02:54 PM
From the BBC's rolling coverage (11.02AM):
In a statement published online, the jihadist group said the attacks were designed to show France it remained a "top target". The group claims it studied the target locations and carried out the attack using "eight brothers wearing explosive belts and carrying assault rifles".
At 1127 AM:
The statement claims that "eight brothers wearing explosive vests and assault rifles targeted carefully chosen locations in the heart of the French capital". It goes on to call Paris the "capital of abomination and perversion".
"In a holy attack facilitated by Allah, a group of believers and soldiers of the caliphate – may Allah give it might and victory – targeted the capital of abomination and perversion, the one that carries the banner of the cross in Europe, Paris.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-34815972
The first thoughts belong to those enjoying life on a mild autumn weekend and suffered horror, severe wounds or even death and their relatives and friends. I hope for the very best for them.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I had little doubt that the Daesh were being those heinous acts and neither that some of the murderes were already known to the police. Maybe this arrest on the 5th of November in Bavaria was connected (http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/14/paris-terror-attacks-attackers-dead-mass-killing-live-updates). Delivering the weapons for the specific attack late after having undergone training elsewhere would reduce the chances od detection, I suppose. But that is only personal speculation.
Examination of the suspect’s mobile phone and of the car’s GPS system indicated he was en route to Paris, German media reports said.
Police experts impounded the vehicle and took it apart - to reveal a sophisticated operation with automatic weapons, 200 grammes of TNT, hand grenades, and ammunition carefully concealed in the car’s bodywork, according to the reports.
TheCurmudgeon
11-14-2015, 04:19 PM
Daesh involvement makes no sense. Daesh's survival, in part, depends on support from outside its territorial boundaries. Particularly, recruiting efforts. I have to wonder how this is going to affect the psychological support their message has, particularly in Western nations.
Can't help but feel that this was a "Pearl Harbor" moment for them. But I have been wrong about them before.
SWJ Blog
11-14-2015, 07:02 PM
Paris, ISIS, and the Long War Against Extremism (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/paris-isis-and-the-long-war-against-extremism)
Entry Excerpt:
--------
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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
Bill Moore
11-14-2015, 07:28 PM
Daesh involvement makes no sense. Daesh's survival, in part, depends on support from outside its territorial boundaries. Particularly, recruiting efforts. I have to wonder how this is going to affect the psychological support their message has, particularly in Western nations.
Can't help but feel that this was a "Pearl Harbor" moment for them. But I have been wrong about them before.
It most likely will increase recruiting and more importantly mobilize other latent jihadists in Europe. The effects will play over time in a way that further threatens Europe's security by mobilizing the reactionaries furthering the cultural divide and raising tensions that are interdependent uponeach other. The challenge will be off ramping from this trend.
davidbfpo
11-14-2015, 10:59 PM
Amidst the reporting I found these useful commentaries:
John Schindler:http://observer.com/2015/11/jihadists-attack-paris-again-the-world-is-horrified/
Vox has an interview with Will MCants; in summary:
McCants cautioned that we still don't know a lot about the Paris attacks. But in recent weeks, he says, ISIS has launched a suicide attack against an area in Lebanon where Hezbollah is strong. It's also suspected of bombing a Russian civilian airliner in Egypt. These attacks together, he says, suggest that ISIS is lashing out. It's been losing territory (http://www.vox.com/2015/7/30/9069705/isis-map-10-percent) in Syria and Iraq, and this might be a response — an effort to deter further intervention against it by showing foreign powers that they'll pay a price.Link:http://www.vox.com/world/2015/11/14/9735512/paris-attacks-isis-why
John Berger on the 'war of ideas' and the sub-title says it all:
The Islamic State isn’t succeeding because of the strength of its narrative. It’s succeeding because it can mobilize a microscopic minority.Link:http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/11/isis-war-of-ideas-propaganda/415335/
I do wonder why these apparently co-ordinated attacks featured suicide bombers trying to gain access to the football stadium after the France -v- Germany football match started. All three then killed themselves and so far I don't recall any reports of deaths there.
One cafe attacked turns out to be owned and operated by French Algerian Muslims. How will that effect the French Muslim youth in the suburbs?
davidbfpo
11-15-2015, 12:22 PM
Thee commentaries, this time by British authors and the first by Professor Andrew Hussey, who is a resident of Paris.
Andrew's note on some Muslims reaction is IMHO important:
Across the street, in one of the tougher bars of the quartier, a group of North African lads was swigging beer. They were stern and grim faced and I caught the sense that they wanted to be seen doing this, as if to say that all that Islamist murder is nothing to do with us – we belong here too.
He ends with:
As Paris awoke on Saturday morning, the politicians declared that France was now at war. The problem is that nobody knows with whom.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/14/paris-attacks-my-experience
Professor Paul Rogers has a wider viewpoint and this quote is important:
ISIS wants war. It presents itself as the true guardian of Islam under attack from the “crusader west”. This message, though pernicious and dangerous, is currently being encouraged by the progressive withdrawal of all Middle Eastern states from active involvement in the airstrikes against ISIS in Syria.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paris-atrocity-and-after
From St Andrews University the author asks should we respond as ISIS wants:https://www.opendemocracy.net/gilbert-ramsay/is-attacks-and-not-playing-game
Finally I noted via the BBC today only one person died at the Stadt de France, when the three suicide bombers acted. In a remarkable display of solidarity the French football team slept overnight with the German team, after being advised to stay put.
OUTLAW 09
11-15-2015, 03:27 PM
Chechen trace: Paris police suspects that #Putin’s ally #Kadyrov could be a mastermind behind #ParisAttacks
http://newsdaily.com.ua/post/1103316
#French police arrest five #Russians suspected of planning an attack http://gu.com/p/45377/stw
France kicked out another five Chechens in Feb 2015-----they were also arrested.
OUTLAW 09
11-15-2015, 04:00 PM
Chechen trace: Paris police suspects that #Putin’s ally #Kadyrov could be a mastermind behind #ParisAttacks
http://newsdaily.com.ua/post/1103316
#French police arrest five #Russians suspected of planning an attack http://gu.com/p/45377/stw
France kicked out another five Chechens in Feb 2015-----they were also arrested.
Paris was a well-planned op. There's a professional bomb-maker out there somewhere. Nothing "homegrown" here.
Paris suicide vests professionally made-TATP
http://tribune.com.pk/story/991959/paris-suicide-vests-mark-change-of-tactics-and-new-threat/ …
Bomb-maker - 'not cannon fodder'
Still on the loose
This is not normal for IS released publications--no reference to Paris attacks.....
No mention of #ParisAttacks in Daesh English Bulletin!
pic.twitter.com/9w6kUbj1s1
Audio of #ISIS terrorist statement was uploaded to #Russia|n Mail.Ru services AFTER #ParisAttacks
MT @hohland_gosdep
pic.twitter.com/8iOuYIlewo
OUTLAW 09
11-15-2015, 04:06 PM
Top EU Diplomat Warns of Dangers of ‘Extreme Nationalism’ After Paris Attack. Rise of Le Pen? Music to Moscows ears
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/15/top-eu-diplomat-warns-of-dangers-of-extreme-nationalism-after-paris-attack/ …
HELP If any jihadist is tweeting/insta/fbing anything celebratory concerning the atrocities in Paris, report them at
http://ghostsec.org
Ghostsec.org has identified hundreds of IS Twitter accounts---something Twitter seems to be unable to do themselves.
Famous #Russian bloger believes that #Putin’s #FSB is behind #ParisAttacks and #A321 bombing
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Finformnapalm.org%2F15354-paris-airbus-isis-putin …
Bill Moore
11-15-2015, 04:43 PM
Outlaw,
You're a well known anti-Russian, and I'm with you on that. However, this acquisition without any supporting evidence other than twitter feeds is over the top. You're allowing your bias to overcome your reasoning. Russia, or more accurately the USSR, has a history of supporting terrorism, but not radical Islam, so like all good propaganda there is a little bit there that makes you want to believe it. These claims are reminiscent of the U.S. rigging the World Trade Center with explosives.
The Chechens may be Russian, but that doesn't mean they're supported by the government of Russia. They're active in Jihad in many places outside of Chechnya. As for the attacks being professional, there is a long laundry list of terrorists conducting professional and complex attacks. I also wouldn't don't think it was that professional considering three suicide bombers killed themselves outside the football stadium and only killed one bystander.
As for claims, NYT claims ISIL/ISIS/IS did claim the attack on Twitter.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/world/europe/isis-claims-responsibility-for-paris-attacks-calling-them-miracles.html?_r=0
The Islamic State claimed responsibility on Saturday for the catastrophic attacks in the French capital, calling them “the first of the storm” and mocking France as a “capital of prostitution and obscenity,”
The remarks came in a communiqué published in Arabic, English and French on the Islamic State’s account on Telegram, a messaging platform, and then distributed via its supporters on Twitter, according to a transcript provided by the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks jihadist propaganda.
SITE intelligence is a credible source
OUTLAW 09
11-15-2015, 07:06 PM
Bill---not anti Russian--just someone with a very healthy distrust of Russian political leadership since 1991. Old school IR degree--actions are what you judge a country and a country's leadership on---not on their words.
A number of points---the IS does their info war in a standard straight forward way--yes they claimed both Paris and the Russian airliner BUT in their recent Russian threat video they intertwined the downing in that message--in their English Newsletter just released right after Paris---absolutely no claim --that in itself is not normal behavior.
Russia is driving a two front approach to IS--the internal security services has allowed 2500-4000 jihadi's to leave Russia to fight in Syria, they fought two Chechen wars, and are still fighting Islamists in the southern RF regions.
The current Chechnya leader has openly stated he is ready to send 25K Chechen fighters to Syria....and Chechens have been fighting for Russia inside eastern Ukraine--he just needs Putin to ask.
Putin claims to go to Syria to fight and destroy IS but has basically attacked those fighting strictly Assad NOT touching IS at all.
If one tracks Russian actions towards IS you will find them interwoven with Assad and Iran especially since the former KGB/GRU now FSB/GRU has trained the Assad intelligence service and in 2011 Assad released a large number of IS fighters they had in their prisons--and the FSB did not know them and or had contact with them. There have been numerous tidbits of IS, FSB, Turkish and Iranian connections mentioned over the last four years.
In the last week or so you have seen a number of articles pointing the finger at the former Iraqi Intelligence officers being deeply behind IS.
When I pointed this out in 2005 after a long debrief of a insurgent leader who was a ISI officer and who had been trained by both the KGB/MfS in the University of Baghdad--when I went up to National with it--no interest whatsoever
BTW--in one article it mentioned who is currently really leading IS---that name I forward to National as the key individual in 2005 and againthere was no interest whatsoever. So ten years later this is all of a sudden "news"?
I probably was the only interrogator during that time who could have picked up on it as most had no experience at all concerning the KGB/MfS training and methods.
Secondly, just a week or so before the first attack on Paris this particular Russian comment posted a similar comment----his warnings started back in Sept 2015.
BTW--SITE actually missed a IS video released on 22 July 2015 stating that they would fill the streets of France with dead bodies--no connection between the IS posting and the Russian posting??
Vladimir Bagrianski warned of Russian attacks in Europe as far bck as on 9 septembre 2015
https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.bagrianski/posts/959315220800287?pnref=story …
Putin's actions in relationship to the airliner downing have been rather strange to say the least....he did not respond for over 55 hours and then it really was not a true response that one would have thought especially since he is from St. Petersburg himself.
There has been a not so subtle indication that the shot down of MH17 was actually suppose to be for the Russian Aeroflot airliner seven minutes behind MH17 and the BUK acquisition radar could not tell the difference.
Russia has a history of four false flag attacks in the last 18 months in the Ukraine.
So excuse me if I have may doubts about this attack being strictly IS run--there are more players in the background that need to be intently watched.
OUTLAW 09
11-15-2015, 07:35 PM
Outlaw,
You're a well known anti-Russian, and I'm with you on that. However, this acquisition without any supporting evidence other than twitter feeds is over the top. You're allowing your bias to overcome your reasoning. Russia, or more accurately the USSR, has a history of supporting terrorism, but not radical Islam, so like all good propaganda there is a little bit there that makes you want to believe it. These claims are reminiscent of the U.S. rigging the World Trade Center with explosives.
The Chechens may be Russian, but that doesn't mean they're supported by the government of Russia. They're active in Jihad in many places outside of Chechnya. As for the attacks being professional, there is a long laundry list of terrorists conducting professional and complex attacks. I also wouldn't don't think it was that professional considering three suicide bombers killed themselves outside the football stadium and only killed one bystander.
As for claims, NYT claims ISIL/ISIS/IS did claim the attack on Twitter.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/world/europe/isis-claims-responsibility-for-paris-attacks-calling-them-miracles.html?_r=0
SITE intelligence is a credible source
Paris attackers communicated with #ISIS using encryption. Attackers also showed military training - NYTimes
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/16/world/europe/paris-attackers-communicated-with-isis-officials-say.html …
BTW--they were using PlayStation 4 comm devices....and the vests were made by a bombmaker who knew his tradecraft..not a home grown type.
BREAKING: AP reports #Iraq warned US-led coalition countries of imminent assault before #Paris attacks - @garretpustay
Bill Moore
11-15-2015, 07:55 PM
I'm not denying legacy connections between various adversary intelligence organizations and terrorist organizations. That game has existed for decades, and I suspect it continues today. There are areas I don't understand, such as the apparent lack of conflict between Assad's forces and ISIL. As for former Saddam regime members working with AQI and ISIL is well known by those who follow the conflict, and it is logical they maintained thei contacts with Russian intelligence, but promoting an attack on Paris makes no sense. To avoid generating conspiracy theories that distract from the truth I think it is best to wait for the facts to materialize. If your allegations are correct, that would be an act of war by Russia. Before we go there, let's slow our roll and really think through this. I suspect it was ISIL, an organization more than capable of doing this without state support.
OUTLAW 09
11-15-2015, 07:56 PM
http://linkis.com/euromaidanpress.com/MhFi9
PART 1
Russian trace in Paris bombing theory not as crazy as you might think
Article by: Mychailo Wynnyckyj
Tonight the world mourns the victims of the IS (“Islamic State”) attacks on Paris. Meanwhile, seemingly as proof of the degree to which Ukraine is peripheral to global public opinion, the resurgent conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas goes unnoticed (as do the bombings in Beirut two days ago). In Ukraine, this morning’s news broadcasts reported intensified artillery and small-arms fire along the entire length of the front in the east. Apparently the “separatists” (aka Russian mercenaries and “military advisors” from the Russian Federation) have resumed shelling of Ukrainian army positions from tanks, and supposedly withdrawn (according to the Minsk/Paris accords) heavy artillery. Tonight’s news broadcasts have reported 7 dead and 8 injured among Ukraine’s defenders.
I haven’t written my “Thoughts from Kyiv” for a while. That’s not to say I’ve stopped writing, just not in this genre. My previous “Thoughts” have been described by some as “analytical”, but by many others as “long” and/or “alarmist.” If you feel the latter labels are appropriate, stop reading now – you won’t enjoy the text anyway…
Incidentally, the label “alarmist” was first applied to me after a series of articles I posted in March-April 2014 in which I tried to warn anyone who would listen that Putin’s aggression in Crimea and the Donbas were not a limited action, but part of a much broader expansionist strategy. Later, in October 2014, I warned of the possibility of aerial bombardments of Kyiv, and even though US General Breedlove (Supreme Allied Commander, Europe) reiterated the same warning several days later, the “alarmist” label stuck to me, not him. So now, I’m gun shy: in this article I’ll present scenarios rather than predictions. I am not Vladimir Putin’s psychotherapist, and so have no idea what course of action his sick mind will decide to take up in the immediate future. I also have no doubt that rational choice is not a forte of the Russian President – at least not the same way “rationality” is understood by most intelligent people educated in a post-Enlightenment western paradigm. Nevertheless, he has made his intentions clear in several public addresses, and has backed these up with action – alas few have listened…
As I write these words, my Facebook newsfeed is filled with speculation written by Ukrainians searching for a “Russian trace” in the Paris attacks. Although I am generally wary of conspiracy theories, the logic of several of these posts gives one pause. Take for example, the list of rhetorical propositions presented by Channel 5 journalist Vitaliy Haydukevych who asks “whose interests are served by the Paris attacks?”:
1.In the wake of an IS attack on Paris, anti-Islamic sentiment in France (and Euroscepticism in other EU member states) inevitably will rise, likely to the political benefit of the radical right Front National (and equivalent parties in other European countries). Who finances Marie Le-Pen?
2.The universally accepted notion of Europe as being secure and prosperous has been shaken – particularly among those in Eastern Europe (e.g. eastern and central Ukraine) who have become recent converts to the cause of Eurointegration.
3.The French security apparatus (apparently) knew that a terrorist threat existed, but were powerless to avert the attacks – this meme is particularly popular among Russian media outlets, coupled with the message “don’t travel outside of Russia, it’s not safe.”
4.In the span of the past 2 weeks IS has attacked both the French and the Russians (downing the MetroJet flight over Egypt). Apparently their terrorist threat is universal, and an alliance between Paris and Moscow in the war in Syria will be a logical consequence (BTW: allies don’t impose economic sanctions on one another).
Incidentally, Russian MP and political analysts Sergey Markov (believed to have Putin’s ear) posted several messages on his FB page today calling upon France to now lead a “global anti-terrorist coalition, with the participation of the US and Russia, to crush the IS terrorist threat in Syria, Iraq and Lybia.” As an aside Markov urges the West to urgently end its conflict with Russia over Ukraine, to “replace the (Kyiv) junta with a technocratic government, rewrite (Ukraine’s) Constitution… The Kyiv junta is one of the main obstacles to joint action by the US, EU and Russia against terrorism.” No mention of Crimea – obviously.
At the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi on 22 October 2015, Markov’s paradigm was formalized by Vladimir Putin, who reminded his audience that during his previous speech at the UN General Assembly on 28 September (3 days before the start of Russian aerial sorties in Syria), the Russian President called for the creation of a global anti-terrorist coalition, “but our American partners ignored this proposal.” According to Putin, the only way to ensure victory over Islamic terrorism is for the US, EU and Russia to view each other as allies against a common enemy. Furthermore (Markov’s words are clearly an echo of the boss’s thoughts): without the direct involvement of the US and Europe, finding a resolution to the conflict in the Donbas will not be possible – Kyiv is not prepared to change its constitution without external pressure.
And so we return to the perennial question: what is Putin after? If only people would listen – he’s quite clear in his statements. Take the following quotes from the Russian President’s Valdai address (Oct 22, 2015):
1.“Competition between states is a natural condition in geopolitics”
2.“In the modern world, unipolarity is not healthy”
3.“The US treats its European allies as one would treat vassals, punishing European companies for violating sanctions regime against Russia”
4.“American strategists understand fully that their missile defense system (in Europe) is aimed at neutralizing the nuclear threat from Russia – i.e. at reducing the geopolitical power of Russia. This is precisely why we see this as a threat. If one country puts up a nuclear umbrella and protects itself against nuclear threats, then that country will be free to use its power to pursue its interests anywhere through any means.”
5.“Russia and the West have different civilizational worldviews” (answer to question alluding to Huntingdon’s classic work). Apparently, the West is pragmatic whereas Russia’s “soul” is idealistic. And incidentally, “I don’t see the Russians and Ukrainians as separate peoples,” said Putin.
From the above, one can deduce: a) Putin wants to return Russia to its “rightful” position as a global superpower – a balance/alternative to US global hegemony; b) Russia’s nuclear arsenal is a key instrument of the Kremlin’s geopolitical ambitions, and anything that threatens the perpetuation of the Cold War doctrine of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) is seen as a direct threat to Russia’s geopolitical interests; c) In order to (re)establish Russia’s “rightful” place (and in order to formalize his “sphere of influence”), Putin craves a “new Yalta” – a meeting between the US and Russia (possibly with the participation of China) aimed at carving up the globe.
During the Valdai discussion Putin (apparently) digressed from his prepared remarks during the Q&A, and recalled having recently read archived transcripts of conversations held in 1990 between a former leader of the German Social-Democrats and the Soviet leadership on the eve of unification. According to the Russian President, during the taped conversation, the German politician bemoaned the fact that the two sides had not “decided the fate of Europe” prior to unification, pointing out to his Soviet interlocutors that the lack of a deal between the new/old great powers would lead to continued conflict on the continent.
Continued......
OUTLAW 09
11-15-2015, 07:57 PM
Part Two Continued.....
Having watched a video of Putin’s performance at the Valdai Discussion Club 3 weeks ago, having then observed the extremely muted reaction to the bombing of Metrojet Flight 9268 over the Sinai Desert a mere 9 days later, and now having watched the Kremlin’s rapid response to the IS terrorist attacks on Paris, I am beginning to give some credence to the conspiracy theorists who would find a trace of the Russian President behind every recent incident of violence on or near the European continent. In Sochi, Putin ominously declared: “There’s one thing I learned in my youth on the streets of Leningrad: if a fight is unavoidable, one should hit first.” Is this exactly what he has been doing lately?
Tonight, volunteers embedded with the Ukrainian Army’s 53rd brigade near Avdiyivka (the closest point on the front line to the city of Donetsk) report intense fighting with the use of heavy artillery by both sides – apparently Ukrainian forces quickly brought their equipment forward to the conflict line in response to an intense enemy attack on their defensive positions. Are the “separatists” simply taking advantage of the world being distracted by the Paris bombings, or are we witnessing an expansion of Russia’s theatre of operations. Putin can’t fight a war on two fronts (i.e. both in Syria and Ukraine) simultaneously, can he?
In the long term (I am convinced), this question will matter little – except to historians. For those (like me) who believe World War Three began with the annexation of Crimea, and that it will end with the disintegration of Russia (along the lines of WWI beginning in the provincial city of Sarajevo, but resulting in the disintegration of the Habsburg Empire), the Paris bombings, tonight’s escalation in the Donbas, and the inevitable intensification of military action in Syria – inevitably to be followed by more IS bombings in the West in the future– are all events in a continuous narrative that humanity has been dragged into by a little madman in the Kremlin. Clearly IS is an autonomous actor in this war, but as was the case in previous global conflicts, adversarial lines are rarely two dimensional – Russia is an antagonist for whom the destruction of US hegemony and a weakened EU are means to its own perceived (re)assertion as a global actor, and for whom the use of IS terrorists as instruments for achieving these goals is an absolutely legitimate strategy of geopolitical realpolitik. For those of us in Europe this is a somewhat uncomfortable position. However, to seek comfort in an alliance with one’s ultimate enemy would clearly be shortsighted.
davidbfpo
11-15-2015, 10:47 PM
A French commentary by a respected epert, Bruno Tertrais and the sub-title:
The symbolic importance of the targets of Friday’s terror is clear. This was an assault on the values that France and its capital stand for
He ends with:
But the military component of the fight is only part of the picture. The war will be won at home. It is a war of ideas, which will get uglier in the coming weeks and months: this time Marine Le Pen (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/14/paris-terror-attacks-fn-far-right-le-pen-front-national) may be better placed to capitalise on the current events than she was after the January attacks. The French government cannot ask every foreigner, every member of a minority, to be a Voltaire. But there is still a chance to save our model of integration and to be faithful to his ideals of tolerance and freedom.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/15/paris-attacks-war-ideas-friday-terror-french-policies-syria-france
davidbfpo
11-15-2015, 10:54 PM
Just found this article by Scott Atran and this is a key passage:
what inspires the most uncompromisingly lethal actors in the world today is not so much the Qur’an or religious teachings. It’s a thrilling cause that promises glory and esteem. Jihad is an egalitarian, equal-opportunity employer: fraternal, fast-breaking, glorious, cool – and persuasive.
(He ends with) The first step to combating Isis is to understand it. We have yet to do so. That failure costs us dear.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/15/terrorists-isis
davidbfpo
11-15-2015, 11:06 PM
Two slightly different reports:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11997599/How-a-Belgian-parking-ticket-led-to-international-manhunt-for-more-plotters-in-Paris-attacks.html and http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/15/parking-ticket-paris-attacks-police-belgium-molenbeek
Bill Moore
11-15-2015, 11:36 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/11/15/72-hours-before-paris-attacks-isis-linked-social-media-account-reveals-god-1219447939/
72 hours before Paris attacks, ISIS-linked social media account reveals 'God bless you in your mission'
Fox News has learned that four credible, ISIS-linked social media accounts began sharing messages 72 hours before the Paris attack, including images of weapons, the Eiffel tower, as well as blessings for the attackers’ mission. A military intelligence source says the social media traffic is now seen as evidence the three teams had gone operational.
The translations include “God bless you in your mission” and “Support the deployment,” as well as a reference to our “sister,” suggesting an operative, or member of the support team was a woman.
Now we hopelessly can start to cease the speculation about Russia, and focus on the real problem.
TheCurmudgeon
11-16-2015, 03:27 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/11/15/72-hours-before-paris-attacks-isis-linked-social-media-account-reveals-god-1219447939/
72 hours before Paris attacks, ISIS-linked social media account reveals 'God bless you in your mission'
Now we hopelessly can start to cease the speculation about Russia, and focus on the real problem.
Can you confirm from another source? I don't consider Fox a reputable news source.
I can't find any verification of the claims anywhere else.
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 06:33 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/11/15/72-hours-before-paris-attacks-isis-linked-social-media-account-reveals-god-1219447939/
72 hours before Paris attacks, ISIS-linked social media account reveals 'God bless you in your mission'
Now we hopelessly can start to cease the speculation about Russia, and focus on the real problem.
Bill---those on the social media side I use and have deep abilities to search have not confirmed this nor do they believe it as it would totally violate the IS OPSEC which they are extremely good at.
They fully respect the abilities of the NSA and GCHQ and know that such chatter triggers immediately a response.
US IC sources talk about heavily encrypted traffic using the Sony PlayStation technology which cannot be monitored only detected--if you noticed not even comms between the three attack teams were detected and the French IC stated they have no insight into what is going on inside Belgium where the plan and attacks came from.
I still stand by the Russian trace simply because of the deep intertwining of IS and the former KGB/GRU and now FSB--the actions of Putin relating to the airliner still is a deep puzzlement for Russian SMEs who fully understand him.
Either he knew of threats against the airliner or he was involved is the only explanation for his behavior---he is a man of the streets of St. Petersburg, a majority of those killed came from St. Petersburg yet he said and did nothing for 55 hours and still has not really engaged by going there--why--totally unnormal for him--he never misses a chance to bash the US for starting IS.
Remember his GRU/SVR/FSB maintained/still maintains (1) two major intel centers in Syria and he knows nothing??
You did notice that any talk around the 22 July IS French threat video has not been really picked up on MSM--wonder why that is?
The real problem is that we have two excellent ground armies standing next to IS that are more than willing to attack IS---the SDF with the Kurds and the FSA--the FSA are dodging Russian bombs daily with not a word said by Obama and the SDF is being shot at by the Turks and are threatened with a Turkish army invasion against them.
Therein lies the core problem---we could and should attack but are afraid of our own shadows.
Robert has been always right--the IS problem is a Sunni problem---let them fight if they are willing to fight against IS and give them any support their require--but the Obama floats, dodges and ignores in order to make it to the end without unleashing a military action that would ruin his legacy. But will the Sunnis do it when faced by a very aggressive Iran in Iraq and Syria via their not so non terrorist militias.
Defeating IS military is potentially real--but the IS ideology is their power and that will take years to counter and there are many that are attracted to it.
We will still be confronted with the ongoing global Sunni Shia war that is real and will not go away---QJBR/AQI started that war and IS has driven it into a global confrontation.
Bill Moore
11-16-2015, 06:38 AM
Can you confirm from another source? I don't consider Fox a reputable news source.
I can't find any verification of the claims anywhere else.
I share your concerns about Fox News, and while searching for another source to at least dual source it, I found a report that Fox reported the same thing after the gun man shot up the recruiter station in Tennessee last May. That report turned out to be false. They're well known for pushing a narrative, and have been caught reporting inaccurate information too many times not to be concerned about their credibility.
Even if ISIS didn't tweet prior to the attack, it appears more probable they conducted the attacks as the reporting unfolds. However, always wise to maintain some degree of doubt.
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 11:54 AM
Just found this article by Scott Atran and this is a key passage:
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/15/terrorists-isis
David-have been saying for a super long time we never did fully understand even the Iraqi Sunni insurgency much less first QJBR then AQI and now IS.
There is that old saying know your enemies as if they are you---we have not even tried to.......
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 12:01 PM
I share your concerns about Fox News, and while searching for another source to at least dual source it, I found a report that Fox reported the same thing after the gun man shot up the recruiter station in Tennessee last May. That report turned out to be false. They're well known for pushing a narrative, and have been caught reporting inaccurate information too many times not to be concerned about their credibility.
Even if ISIS didn't tweet prior to the attack, it appears more probable they conducted the attacks as the reporting unfolds. However, always wise to maintain some degree of doubt.
Bill--do not get me wrong---fully believe IS behind that attacks BUT and this is the far bigger BUT---was Russia riding highside on the attack and that actually goes to the Bloomberg article carried by SWJ here today.
I have mentioned the intertwining of IS with the FSB/GRU formerly the KGB/GRU and Syria and especially the unspoken spoken cooperation between IS and Assad.
This hit social media today and confirms what I have been saying--if Russia was so into fighting IS THEN why did the FSB allow 2500-4000 fighters leave Russia for Syria AND why is not the RuAF totally bombing IS instead of fully bombing the FSA?
Why is Cyrillic on the road signs.......?
Arabic, Latin and Cyrillic script on #IS traffic signs in al-Hawl, Syria.
Images from #Hawl town liberated by Syrian Democratic Forces / ANF
http://anfenglish.com/kurdistan/images-from-hawl-town-liberated-by-syrian-democratic-forces …
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 12:08 PM
Bill--this is what I mean--yes Russia and Iran are doing a so called fight against IS but what role does IS play in the Russian geopolitical game for the ME.
Here is that intertwining effect--in play now......BTW--the last sentence is telling.......
The #Russia-#Iran'ian plan to undermine Saudi Arabia #KSA in #Syria
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentary/566228-the-russo-iranian-plan-to-undermine-saudi-in-syria …
Whether through war or diplomacy, Russia and Iran have been trying to finish off Ahrar al-Sham, a Saudi-sponsored Syrian rebel group that has shown resolve and resilience in fighting forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad. The group has threatened Assad’s survival and has so far proven to be an obstacle in the face of the Russo-Iranian military campaign aimed at reviving the Syrian dictatorship.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have asked for a list of “US-approved” Syrian opposition militias, presumably to spare them Russian airstrikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif has called on the Vienna Conference to identify terrorist groups in Syria.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Washington has placed two armed groups on its list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations: ISIS and the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. As with its foreign policy in general, Washington’s position on Ahrar has been murky. By calling on Washington to spell out its position on Ahrar, Moscow and Tehran hope to build international consensus that the group is terrorist and should be defeated, as a prerequisite for a political solution in Syria.
Russia and Iran have consistently tried to connect Syrian rebels to terrorism, believing such a designation gives Assad a green light to eliminate them brutally. Russia, Iran and Assad believe that painting groups as terrorist might also make them toxic to their foreign sponsors.
Iran has also cited foreign sponsorship as proof of terrorism in Syrian rebel groups. Because Turkey’s government is Islamist, and because Qatar leans toward Islamists across the region, Iran has found it easy to shout Islamism, and therefore terrorism, against any Syrian opposition group with ties to either Turkey or Qatar.
Saudi Arabia has been a harder nut to crack. Riyadh has been at the forefront of combating terrorism in the region since at least 9/11. Unlike Turks and Qataris, who sided with the Islamists in Egypt, Saudi Arabia opposed Cairo’s Islamist government. As an alternative, Iranian propaganda tried to connect ‘radical Saudi Muslim teachings’ and ISIS.
But Iranian propaganda has failed. ISIS is an Iraqi organization whose leaders have inherited Saddam’s hatred of Saudi Arabia. And like Al-Qaeda, ISIS has launched attacks inside the kingdom.
Russia, for its part, arranged for Assad’s security chief, Ali Mamlouk, to visit Saudi Arabia on the premise that if Riyadh wanted to undermine Iranian influence in Syria, Mamlouk could offer such guarantees. Instead of extending such an offer, Mamlouk tried to spin the story of his Saudi meetings in the media in a bid to undermine confidence between Syrian rebel groups and Saudi Arabia.
When Russia and Iran saw it was impossible to outmaneuver the Saudis on Ahrar, Russia launched a direct military assault against the group, while Iranian propaganda went after the Saudi royal family, judging by speeches of Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and the “Death to Al Saud” chants of his supporters.
But Ahrar surprised Russia with its military performance. Meanwhile, the Saudis responded to the Vienna effort of designating Ahrar terrorist by doubling down on their military support of the Syrian group. The solution in Syria, implied Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir, would not be a political settlement. “Assad will leave, whether through politics or military action,” he told reporters.
Saudi’s holding onto Syrian non-Islamist rebels like Ahrar prompted Iranians to threaten to withdraw from the Vienna meetings. Statements from unidentified senior Iranian officials in the Wall Street Journal threatened an Iranian boycott of Vienna and were especially offensive toward Saudi Arabia, echoing Nasrallah’s tone.
Russia and Iran want to help Assad beat his opponents, terrorist or not. Saudi Arabia has skillfully identified and sponsored moderate Syrian rebels who threaten Assad’s survival. Aside from Iraqi ISIS, which controls Syrian territory mostly east of the Euphrates, the war in Syria is between Assad and Ahrar. Russia and Iran are trying to enlist the US, via Vienna, to vilify Ahrar as a move towards destroying it, undermining Saudi influence in Syria and finishing off the moderate Syrian opposition.
Saudis and Americans are aware of the Russo-Iranian plan. President Obama, however, would not mind seeing Assad prevail, were it not for the Saudis, who have used their weight to neutralize America on Syria, a step that has proven adequate given Washington’s endlessly amateurish foreign policy.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington Bureau Chief of Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai. He tweets @hahussain.
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 12:36 PM
Even US/UK commenters are losing the plot with Assad and IS---we simply do not need more Syrian civilians deaths--actually we need the Russians to target IS not the FSA and the Syrian civil society.......
Wow.
@TheStudyofWar suggests adjusting rules of engagement to accept civilian casualties in anti-#ISIS strikes:
https://shar.es/15BG3y
We do not need to emulate both Assad and Russia when it comes to killing Syrians.
BACK to the intertwining of IS, Russia and Iran--do not think for one moment the Israeli's do not think Hezbollah is a tennis club.......
We do not view them as a terrorist organisation"
#Russia Deputy FM Bogdanov on #Hezbollah, speaking to Interfax.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0T412520151115?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews …
Think about the Russian statement for a moment--based on this logic that would explain just WHY Russia is not bombing IS--in Russian eyes not a terrorist organization it would appear.......?
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 01:10 PM
MORE Putin platitudes on IS........
Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
"look we are seeking to do more to focus on ISIL." Vladimir Putin, as quoted by David Cameron's staffers.
If he is really serious about more "focus" on IS THEN why have since Friday all air strikes been either in support of the IRGC and Hezbollah attacking FSA and or on FSA positions---NOT a single recorded air strike anywhere in Syria on IS by the RuAf--why is that--and there is no intertwining of IS and Russian interests........???
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 01:18 PM
We should be totally alert now.......Iraq had sent prior warnings of the Paris attack... and IS had released a French attack threat via video on 22 July 2015.
Now it will start getting serious.... according to Iraq another 16 kamikazes sent to Europe (24 total) https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/666227636478320640 …
IS Video Warns Of More Attacks Like Paris
http://trib.al/SihODEM
pic.twitter.com/emn50GgktB
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 01:59 PM
Since Paris---should it not be far easy to declare a nation state---"a sponsor of terror/terrorists"?????
RU's interest in contd Syria/IS conflict:
1/softens West over Ukraine&sanctions
2/higher oilprices
3/strengthens extr.right&left EU friends
Russia is part of problem, not solution in Syria,
interested in IS destabilizing EU,
wants concessions on Ukraine
Who is a terrorist? Putin should know. He sends 1,000s of them into eastern Ukraine to kill and spread his ideology
The only difference between Islamic State and the DNR/LNR is that the West does not call them terrorists---WHY Russia supports them.
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 02:09 PM
Come on DC say least something that makes some sense...DC has been constantly criticized for having virtually no info war pushback concept.....many of us have been saying this for going on 18 months now........
BRENNAN: “ISIS is making great use of YouTube & social media to attract people under the false banner of religion” - @CSIS
What planet has Obama and his NSC been literally on for the last 18 months??
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 02:20 PM
Come on DC say least something that makes some sense...DC has been constantly criticized for having virtually no info war pushback concept.....many of us have been saying this for going on 18 months now........
BRENNAN: “ISIS is making great use of YouTube & social media to attract people under the false banner of religion” - @CSIS
What planet has Obama and his NSC been literally on for the last 18 months??
This was posted shortly before the Paris attacks by IS AND in French--and there is no connection--this is what I mean by constantly monitoring their videos ---they do converse with us --we just do not get "get it".
ISIS forum published AK-47 guide days before #ParisAttacks - @vocativ
http://voc.tv/1NV0NfJ
Brennan should know this if he heads the CIA????
SWJ Blog
11-16-2015, 03:24 PM
Friday the 13th in Paris (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/friday-the-13th-in-paris)
Entry Excerpt:
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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/friday-the-13th-in-paris) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
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omarali50
11-16-2015, 05:53 PM
I wrote a somewhat longish and rambling piece about Paris, ISIS, Islam and Sykes-Picot (not enought time to make is shorter or to finish with predictions) Still, it may be of interest to some.
http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/2015/11/paris-islam-isis-and-sykes-picot-random.html?spref=tw
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 06:05 PM
I wrote a somewhat longish and rambling piece about Paris, ISIS, Islam and Sykes-Picot (not enought time to make is shorter or to finish with predictions) Still, it may be of interest to some.
http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/2015/11/paris-islam-isis-and-sykes-picot-random.html?spref=tw
Actually not bad for the first pass.......
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 06:12 PM
Bill-----this is why the Fox comments were bascially disinformation.......
An important piece. ISIS has mastered the art of escaping surveillance, reports @sheeraf, whom nothing escapes:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/sheerafrenkel/isis-is-using-everything-from-encryption-to-playstations-to?utm_term=.veMR04vOw …
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 06:17 PM
Why would Obama risk being seen as a supporter of the Shia against the Sunni--especially since Russia has already allied with the Shia via Iran.....
Putin suggests US is coming around to the idea of partnering with Russia in the fight against Islamic State.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/vladimir-putin-suggests-russias-isolation-from-the-west-is-ending-1447695525 …
TheCurmudgeon
11-16-2015, 06:20 PM
I was taken aback by Daesh's involvement, so my "spider senses" could be wrong here, but it feels like this is a regression - like Daesh is going back to its AQ roots. Those tactics did not work for AQ (except perhaps in Spain), why would they believe they will work now?
omarali50
11-16-2015, 06:21 PM
Actually not bad for the first pass.......
Thanks. I hope to add to the predictions section soon :)
TheCurmudgeon
11-16-2015, 06:22 PM
On a seperate note, the French President has twice stated that France is "at war." Any guesses on if France will invoke Article 5?
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 06:39 PM
I was taken aback by Daesh's involvement, so my "spider senses" could be wrong here, but it feels like this is a regression - like Daesh is going back to its AQ roots. Those tactics did not work for AQ (except perhaps in Spain), why would they believe they will work now?
Fully agree this smacks to much and from the Z..... days of 2005 before he was bombed.
There is some indications that while IS has roughly 25K figthters they are slowly losing ground and just holding onto what they phsyically now control.
The USAF is killing them them at a rate of 1.2K per month which just about off sets their recruitment flow into Iraq and Syria.
Yesterday the so called actual AQ group JaN killed the leader and his entire staff of a IS offshoot in southern Syria and thus eliminated IS from southern Syria.
And the SDF and YGP is in the process of cutting their supply lines from Turkey--so are the bombings a lashout to distract from their major setbacks---think so actually.
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 06:41 PM
Fully agree this smacks to much and from the Z..... days of 2005 before he was bombed.
There is some indications that while IS has roughly 25K figthters they are slowly losing ground and just holding onto what they phsyically now control.
The USAF is killing them them at a rate of 1.2K per month which just about off sets their recruitment flow into Iraq and Syria.
Yesterday the so called actual AQ group JaN killed the leader and his entire staff of a IS offshoot in southern Syria and thus eliminated IS from southern Syria.
And the SDF and YGP is in the process of cutting their supply lines from Turkey--so are the bombings a lashout to distract from their major setbacks---think so actually.
This is actually far more worrisome.........massive number of Shia terrorists ie IRGC, Hezbollah and or Iraqi militia fighters are now in the EU as so called "refugees".
EU Militia Watch @EU_MilitiaWatch
No Comment....
And another one .......another one and another one and on and on.....
pic.twitter.com/g6RtvNnjRN
pic.twitter.com/5yD8vTzFLy
pic.twitter.com/WixfJx4cKn
pic.twitter.com/DyM9MhS0VA
pic.twitter.com/lkEb1AVyps
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 06:44 PM
Even while under attack from the French SF unit in the hostage theater--the jihadis were professional and fought back.
Check the shot pattern and that with an AK47......
One of the ballistic shields used by BRI received 27 impacts during #ParisAttacks, via @itele h/t to @CTstudies
pic.twitter.com/WyeYu4ZnVr
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 07:18 PM
Russian disinformation to make it look like the entire West is now supporting Putins IS anti terror campaign.
SputnikInt not the first time they faked Hollandes statements..
And @SputnikInt's headline makes the lie even more obvious than the mistranslated quote alone.
pic.twitter.com/rmuzUTBAMl
Little work of art in KGB-owned @Independent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/got-a-french-flag-on-your-facebook-profile-picture-congratulations-on-your-corporate-white-supremacy-a6736526.html … pic.twitter.com/RlNJRbLKNm
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 07:21 PM
On a seperate note, the French President has twice stated that France is "at war." Any guesses on if France will invoke Article 5?
Seriously doubt it--it takes all 28 members to say yes before they do anything--for a simple change of a single word in a recent doctrinal FM--took 2.5 yrs to get the 28 onboard with the single word change.
Besides outside of the US the French AF is the second strongest in NATO and they are already flying mission sets.
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 07:42 PM
bellingcat @bellingcat
We believe we've found the Facebook of Bilal Hadfi, one of the Paris attackers
https://www.facebook.com/bellingcat/posts/462798013908655 …
Interesting as it proves that he was a Takfirist.....
Belgium Brahim Abdeslam, one of the #ParisAttacks suicide attackers had a pub in Molenbeek, a front to sell drugs.
http://www.lecho.be/dossier/attaquesparis/Les_freres_Abdeslam_tenaient_Les_Beguines_un_cafe_ a_Molenbeek.9699578-8267.art?ckc=1&ts=1447674878 …
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 07:47 PM
Ex MI6 Head Sir John Sawers tells #c4news: ISIL will want to provoke hostility to refugees and see the rise of the far right across Europe
Syrian 'refugee passport' may have been planted by terrorists, say investigators @Indyworld
http://ind.pn/1PKDsgW
pic.twitter.com/XoJpPgstAb
OUTLAW 09
11-16-2015, 08:00 PM
Something to this comment.......
tom ricks @tomricks1
For it's “CIA this” and “CIA that,” and "He’s a torturing toad!"
But it's "Hey quick launch an op!” when the ISIS bombs explode.
TheCurmudgeon
11-16-2015, 09:05 PM
Ex MI6 Head Sir John Sawers tells #c4news: ISIL will want to provoke hostility to refugees and see the rise of the far right across Europe
Syrian 'refugee passport' may have been planted by terrorists, say investigators @Indyworld
http://ind.pn/1PKDsgW
pic.twitter.com/XoJpPgstAb
I was with you on this, but it seems that, at a minimum, the person who registered in Greese was the same person who was blown up.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/authorities-confirm-one-of-the-paris-attackers-came-through-greece/2015/11/16/78b112fa-8c64-11e5-934c-a369c80822c2_story.html
TheCurmudgeon
11-16-2015, 09:11 PM
"French officials have determined that the bomber was among a group of Syrian refugees who arrived on the Greek island of Leros on October 3."
The date he arrived provides an element of a timeline for the attack. Based on that timeline, the question is: "did he come to Europe with the plans for the attack or was he simply an oportunist who joined an operation already in progress. If he was a key figure I would not assume that he would blow himself up, so the date he arrived may not be terribly helpful.
I would like to know when they started this, becuase it is a departure from the normal attacks that have been limited to the middle east.
davidbfpo
11-16-2015, 09:21 PM
One wonders what impact this will have on the French people, especially those thinking of voting for Marie Le pen next year:
A group of Muslim students in France has released a powerful video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVUCMBuAQNs) calling for ‘firmness in the fight against terrorism’ after almost 130 people from 15 nations were killed in a series of terrorist attacks across Paris three days ago. The group called Etudiants Musulmans de France (EMF) - or Muslim Students of France - took to its website (http://www.emf-asso.com/index.php/actualites/communiques/105-les-etudiants-musulmans-de-france-expriment-leur-emotion-apres-les-evenements-du-13-novembre-a-paris) to express its ‘dismay, sadness, and emotion in the aftermath of the tragedy that took place on 13 November’.
Link to report:http://www.independent.co.uk/student/news/paris-attacks-muslim-student-group-etudiants-musulmans-de-france-condemns-terrorism-in-powerful-a6736401.html and the video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVUCMBuAQNs
davidbfpo
11-16-2015, 10:15 PM
Clints Watts weighs in, thanks to WoTR and concludes:
By contrast, the Islamic State seems to be at war with the entire world. Is this targeting logic the result of some crazed apocalyptic ideological thinking? Or does this broad targeting come from a lack of command, control, and direction the Islamic State has over its rapidly acquired affiliates and legions of networked fan boys who demand action first and strategy second? Until we understand the answer to these questions, it will be difficult to know whether the Islamic State really is one big organization or to anticipate where the group might strike next. The aftermath of the Paris attacks and the upcoming investigation will certainly be quite revealing of this dynamic.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2015/11/what-paris-taught-us-about-the-islamic-state/?
Will McCants has a substantial piece on ISIS on FP, but it is behind a registration wall:https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/16/how-the-islamic-state-declared-war-on-the-world-actual-state/
OUTLAW 09
11-17-2015, 11:24 AM
BREAKING: #Russia FSB Chief: Improvised explosives equivalent to 1.5 KG of TNT went off in #MetroJet flight #A321
Putin promises to find and punish those behind the bombing just as he promised to find those that shot down MH17.....oh wait on the shot down of MH17 --it was those nasty Ukrainian Nazi's.....
OUTLAW 09
11-17-2015, 12:36 PM
Video has emerged of 'Stade de France bomber' clapping and dancing at Serbia camp
http://dailym.ai/1LhUexA
pic.twitter.com/0YzYSGh36Z
http://www.businessinsider.de/isis-anonymous-response-paris-attacks-2015-11?r=US&IR=T
'Idiots': ISIS responds to Anonymous threatening its 'biggest operation ever' against them
Pamela Engel
An ISIS-affiliated account on the messaging app Telegram has sent out a message about Anonymous' threat to launch its "biggest operation ever" against the terrorist group.
After the Paris terror attacks on Friday that left at least 129 people dead and hundreds more injured, the hacking collective Anonymous posted a video in which a person who claims to represent the group said, "Anonymous from all over the world will hunt you down."
"We will launch the biggest operation ever against you," the masked person said. "Expect massive cyberattacks. War is declared. Get prepared."
A Telegram channel that's believed to be affiliated with ISIS hackers then sent out a message to its followers instructing them how to prevent getting hacked by Anonymous.
"The #Anonymous hackers threatened in new video release that they will carry out a major hack operation on the Islamic state (idiots)," the statement read in part.
ISIS then asks: "what they gonna hack?," noting that so far Anonymous has just hacked ISIS-affiliated Twitter accounts and emails.
The message goes on to provide "instructions" on how to avoid potential hacks: Don't open any links unless sure of the source. Change Internet Protocol addresses "constantly." And "do not talk to people [you] don't know on Telegram" or through Twitter direct messaging.
The message, which was posted in both Arabic and English, was then forwarded around to various other ISIS-affiliated Telegram channels.
Anonymous started targeting extremists in January after the terror attacks on the satirical French magazine Charlie Hebdo. The hackers worked to identify ISIS-linked social media accounts and take down extremist websites.
ISIS supporters also used Telegram channels affiliated with the group to coordinate a social media response to the Paris attacks on Friday:
OUTLAW 09
11-17-2015, 12:59 PM
For 2 days after A-321 crash, Putin didn't say a word.
18 days later, a minute's silence.
http://lifenews.ru/news/170249
pic.twitter.com/qgQxLjlnMT
AFP and Le Figaro reporting that Syrian passport found near Stade de France belongs to Assad soldier dead for months http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualites/2015/11/17/01001-20151117LIVWWW00018-traque-attentats-de-paris-syrie-daech-enquete.php#102541 …
In this case it seems that likely the majority of the killers grew up in Europe with some of them having chosen to be fight for Islamic groups in various places. At least one was also comitted also minor crimes and was thus known to the police.
According to Wikipedia:
Some of the attackers were known to law enforcement officials prior to the attacks, and at least some of the attackers had residences in an area in Belgium that is noted for its links to extremist activities. A counter-terrorism expert said that the fact that the perpetrators were known to authorities suggests that intelligence was "pretty good" but the ability to act on it was lacking. The number of Europeans who have links to Syria makes it difficult for security services to keep track of them all.[171]
Clearly the large number poses big problems. Maybe somebody has a link to a breakdown of the patterns of live concerning the terrorists involved in the attacks of the last years. Of course new ones might emerge and likely will but so far there seem quite a lot of similarities among the perpetrators.
TheCurmudgeon
11-17-2015, 09:12 PM
What is up in Germany? False alarm? Related?
Germany vs Holland has been cancelled after a suspect package was found inside the Hannover stadium.
Local police told supporters "please go home quickly without panic" and the arena was evacuated.
Security had been heightened after Friday's terror attacks in Paris, which included a suicide bomber detonating outside the France vs Germany game at the Stade de France.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, had been due to attend the game.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/live-germany-vs-netherlands-cancelled-6849390
Germany and the Netherlands were supposed to play a soccer match in Hannover on Tuesday, but it was called off about 90 minutes before kickoff after police found a suspicious object inside the stadium, which was evacuated.
What exactly composed the suspicious object, however, is being debated. German media is reporting that police received “concrete” information about a bomb threat and that the Hannover police confirmed an explosive device on the premises.
[Germany, Belgium cancel soccer matches; bomb threats cited]
In a press conference held later, however, German officials denied any explosive device had been found, according to The Washington Post’s Charles Lane.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2015/11/17/germany-netherlands-soccer-game-canceled-after-stadium-evacuated/
slapout9
11-17-2015, 10:02 PM
What is up in Germany? False alarm? Related?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/live-germany-vs-netherlands-cancelled-6849390
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2015/11/17/germany-netherlands-soccer-game-canceled-after-stadium-evacuated/
Worlds best news agency( Fox news !!!!!)is reporting that it was a false alarm, but the stadium was cleared out of caution.
Bill Moore
11-18-2015, 08:17 AM
What is up in Germany? False alarm? Related?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/live-germany-vs-netherlands-cancelled-6849390
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2015/11/17/germany-netherlands-soccer-game-canceled-after-stadium-evacuated/
Still too early to tell, but it was based on intelligence from France, not a hoax call. Since the game was cancelled and security heightened it isn't possible to tell if the threat was still credible.
Will be interesting to see what they find in the apartments of the terrorists that the French police just killed (2) and captured (3). Hopefully the security forces can maintain their momentum and continue finding and killing these cells.
http://www.nytimes.com/live/paris-attacks-live-updates/decision-to-cancel-match-came-after/
German Soccer Match Was Canceled Over ‘Concrete’ Threat, Official Says
The German authorities have been reluctant to disclose details about the tip, and Mr. Maassen declined to confirm reports that it had come from French intelligence service, saying on ARD television on Wednesday morning only that the authorities “were able to establish that this was a valid tip.” Multiple sources reporting the same, but could be circular reporting.
Mr. Maassen said the decision to cancel the match, between Germany and the Netherlands, came only 90 minutes before kickoff, because the authorities were checking the information against as many sources as possible. High level officials were at this event also. I doubt the terrorists knew that, but when you potentially see two soccer games targeted that have VIPs in attendance it does cause one to wonder.
Implications for the U.S. are, as we always suspected, that sporting events are credible targets. Threats, real or deception, will continue to disrupt major events and make security increasingly expensive. It is the death by a thousand cuts approach. When everything is a target, and you can't defend everything, then maybe a good offense is overdue?
OUTLAW 09
11-18-2015, 09:39 AM
Video has emerged of 'Stade de France bomber' clapping and dancing at Serbia camp
http://dailym.ai/1LhUexA
pic.twitter.com/0YzYSGh36Z
http://www.businessinsider.de/isis-anonymous-response-paris-attacks-2015-11?r=US&IR=T
'Idiots': ISIS responds to Anonymous threatening its 'biggest operation ever' against them
Pamela Engel
While we all know and understand the power of info warfare---we the US and the West somehow seem to think social media and individuals can carry the load of pushing back on the IS, Russian, Iranian info warfare.
AT some point nation states must pick up the burden as it is pointed as much at them as it is against us the civil societies of those nation states.....
Anonymous announced this morning they eliminated 3800 social media accounts of IS and their supporters and have another 5000 being targeted.
Anonymous has announced the creation of "the Ghost Security Company" for this fight and stated as well they are in this for the long haul--something I totally miss from Western leaders.
Appears that "Black Hats" have a better feel for security of a civil society than do the leaders of the West--who would have thought several months ago that "Black Hats" would become defenders of freedom of speech and the press and major info warriors to defend those societies.
OUTLAW 09
11-18-2015, 09:57 AM
Video has emerged of 'Stade de France bomber' clapping and dancing at Serbia camp
http://dailym.ai/1LhUexA
pic.twitter.com/0YzYSGh36Z
http://www.businessinsider.de/isis-anonymous-response-paris-attacks-2015-11?r=US&IR=T
'Idiots': ISIS responds to Anonymous threatening its 'biggest operation ever' against them
Pamela Engel
From the information warfare front-----
Syria: Anonymous has started providing the Free Syrian Army (#FSA) with intel on #Daesh members. #OpISIS
Anonymous
@GroupAnon #Anonymous has given the Free Syrian Army data with 200k lines of personal information of members of an underground #Daesh forum. #OpISIS
OUTLAW 09
11-18-2015, 10:03 AM
IS is basically no different than say Assad who is responsible for the genocide in his country who Obama wants to leave in power and a Putin who is responsible for killing 8K Ukrainians creating 1.2m IDPs/refugees and who sent thousands of mercenaries into eastern Ukraine and destroyed much of eastern Ukraine as he is doing now in Syria.......
Assad in interview French magazine: "We only share intelligence information under condition that #France change its policies on #Syria"
Remember Assad blamed the French for Paris.......
OUTLAW 09
11-18-2015, 11:25 AM
Interesting if correct..................... in Russian
Turns out Lifenews had video of the suspected bomb suitcase all along, but decided not to run it because \_(ツ)_/¯
http://lifenews.ru/mobile/news/170325 …
OUTLAW 09
11-18-2015, 03:46 PM
Food for thought----there has been some writers referring to the development of an Islamic fascism in such groups as IS--and some of these writers are Muslims.
If one understands the targets that say a a revolutionary left wing terror group picks --they are usually hard targets ie buildings that represent the government in some form or shape.
Radical right wing, neo Nazi and or "fascist" groups tend to target "human beings" in order to make the evening news cycle---so now do we have IS as a fascist group copying the targeting of random civilians much as the extreme right targets human beings not buildings?
This would explain the sudden shift in the IS targeting --meaning away from selected targets to straight killing for the news cycle and the more the better????
We have an interesting IS TTP development---before this attack all operations were planned and controlled out of IS central much as AQ did for years---now it appears that entire small groups centered around a major rebel rouser move into the operational area with their respective operational planner conduct their recon and then break down into smaller attack teams. Having the ops planner in the ops area is a major OPSEC failure and shows me that this "young firebrands" want to make their own mark now and not sit in Raqqa--that is a major development.
We saw this particular tactic develop in later 2005 ---it is called "swarm attacks" ---multiple attack teams from multiple directions to achieve maximum effectiveness and sowing total confusion as it gives the defender no opportunity to understand what is developing--has the advantage to the attack teams can be smaller than needed for a concentrated major single attack.
TheCurmudgeon
11-18-2015, 04:13 PM
Food for thought----there has been some writers referring to the development of an Islamic fascism in such groups as IS--and some of these writers are Muslims.
...
We have an interesting IS TTP development---before this attack all operations were planned and controlled out of IS central much as AQ did for years---now it appears that entire small groups centered around a major rebel rouser move into the operational area with their respective operational planner conduct their recon and then break down into smaller attack teams. Having the ops planner in the ops area is a major OPSEC failure and shows me that this "young firebrands" want to make their own mark now and not sit in Raqqa--that is a major development.
While I am not sure about the Fascism discussion, I have wondered whether the acts of terrorism - the plane bombing and the Paris attacks - are not being directed from the home office in Raqqa. The claims of responsibility are always slow in coming and lack much specificity. I have to wonder if we are not seeing splinter groups striking out on their own.
OUTLAW 09
11-18-2015, 05:15 PM
While I am not sure about the Fascism discussion, I have wondered whether the acts of terrorism - the plane bombing and the Paris attacks - are not being directed from the home office in Raqqa. The claims of responsibility are always slow in coming and lack much specificity. I have to wonder if we are not seeing splinter groups striking out on their own.
Kind of confirms what I was saying-AQ nor the old IS would have never had the operational planner on the ground in the operational area due to simple OPSEC reasons---meaning if captured he knows to much.
BREAKING: Belgian Official: Abaaoud died in #French raid in St denis area of #Paris
https://twitter.com/tarapalmeri/status/667019901484273664 …
Initial reporting very early this morning European time did initially indicate that the mastermind was in the apartment at the time of the RAID assault on the apartment.
3rd body may lie under rubble of #SaintDenis flat, official says, as hunt for #ParisAttacks organiser goes on
http://pal-preview.api.bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur
For those that respect war dogs a 7 year old female Shepard died defending her handler in that RAID assault evidently she and her handler were the third through the door amidst what some in RAID have called a massive firefight they have never experienced before.
davidbfpo
11-18-2015, 05:46 PM
A comprehensive Israeli open source report on the attacks:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/20910
A short BBC News report, now eight hours old, on the 'security flaws and challenges highlighted'. It ends with:
Every successful terrorist attack is, in one sense, an intelligence failure but hindsight always makes that clearer. The problems are often easy to spot afterwards but the reality is that they are often complex and hard to fix.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34853376
OUTLAW 09
11-18-2015, 05:52 PM
Kind of confirms what I was saying-AQ nor the old IS would have never had the operational planner on the ground in the operational area due to simple OPSEC reasons---meaning if captured he knows to much.
BREAKING: Belgian Official: Abaaoud died in #French raid in St denis area of #Paris
https://twitter.com/tarapalmeri/status/667019901484273664 …
Initial reporting very early this morning European time did initially indicate that the mastermind was in the apartment at the time of the RAID assault on the apartment.
3rd body may lie under rubble of #SaintDenis flat, official says, as hunt for #ParisAttacks organiser goes on
http://pal-preview.api.bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur
For those that respect war dogs a 7 year old female Shepard died defending her handler in that RAID assault evidently she and her handler were the third through the door amidst what some in RAID have called a massive firefight they have never experienced before.
Thousands declare #JeSuisChien after a police dog called #Diesel is killed in a #Paris raid
http://bbc.in/1NbW2jj
pic.twitter.com/ocQPIjEYEJ
slapout9
11-18-2015, 06:29 PM
For those that respect war dogs a 7 year old female Shepard died defending her handler in that RAID assault evidently she and her handler were the third through the door amidst what some in RAID have called a massive firefight they have never experienced before.
War dogs and Police dogs are massive cool!
Something which catched my eye in the NYTimes article (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/19/world/europe/paris-attacks.html?_r=0):
Djamila Khaldi, a 54-year-old cashier who lives near the basilica, was preparing to take her daughter to the airport when the gunfire erupted.
Ms. Khaldi said she was not surprised the police had tracked the suspects to the neighborhood. She said a friend of hers believed she had seen one of the wanted men, Salah Abdeslam, on Monday.
“She was terrified, and she looked at another woman knowing that she recognized him too,” Ms. Khaldi said. “They did not dare to go to the police.”
Water for the fish? Maybe too Maoesque, but that stirred me.
St.-Denis, a city of 118,000, is known for its melting-pot population and large Muslim community, as well as the basilica, a national landmark and one of the only tourist attractions in town.
or before:
He added, “We were then able to obtain weapons and set up a safe house while we planned to carry out operations against the crusaders.”
One of their biggest allies, however, may have been a Belgian security system ill equipped to deal with a tight knit community like Molenbeek, where a mostly white police force has only tenuous links to a largely immigrant population resentful of being labeled potential terrorists
Brussels has already been described (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11818920/French-train-attack-Belgian-station-is-close-to-notorious-weapons-supply-line.html) as a sort of illegal trade hub for guns (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0389tdz).
P.S: From The Day of the Jackal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Jackal)
Using his primary false passport, the Jackal travels to Brussels, where he commissions a specialised sniper rifle of great slimness and an appropriate silencer along with a small supply of explosive bullets from a master gunsmith, as well as a set of forged French identity papers from a master forger.
OUTLAW 09
11-19-2015, 05:35 PM
Belkovsky: Putin knew about the terrorist acts in Paris in advance through his agents in ISIS https://twitter.com/MaksimovValera/status/667374849099218944 …
There are already public accusations in Russian media of Putin knowing about Paris in advance. War is here.
mirhond
11-24-2015, 05:10 PM
Diesel, decorated Belgian Shepherd KIA
by a female suicide bomber ...during a French anti-terror raid.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3324782/Twitter-users-post-pictures-pets-paying-tribute-police-dog.html
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/19/03/2E93E7CD00000578-0-Diesel_a_seven_year_old_Belgian_shepherd_was_a_mem ber_of_the_SWA-a-64_1447902249640.jpg
Fellow Canines mourn the loss:
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bigfatcat19/68916090/17443/17443_original.jpg
davidbfpo
12-30-2015, 06:37 PM
I have merged the two threads on the terror attacks in Paris in 2015, and added the older thread on France & CT. Hence the changed title.
davidbfpo
01-01-2016, 05:46 PM
From NYT an article that starts with:
Since the devastating Nov. 13 attacks in Paris, the French police have offered only a fragmentary outline of their response and of how they deployed antiterror teams and other forces. The somberness and solidarity in the weeks since have muted public criticism. No review of the police’s performance has been announced.
Yet accounts from survivors and police officials, as well as the analysis of outside experts, make clear that there were substantial periods when the terrorists operated with little or no hindrance from the authorities, and that France’s top-heavy chain of command, which has diminished neighborhood patrols in favor of specialized units, contributed to delays....several French police experts, and a look at the chronology, suggest that the delayed response points to weaknesses in the highly centralized French police structure.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/01/world/europe/response-to-paris-attacks-points-to-weaknesses-in-french-police-structure.html?
davidbfpo
01-09-2016, 08:59 AM
Absolutely essential viewing, a BBC / HBO documentary on the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris; with lots of police / magistrates interviews and original police SWAT footage: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06vkdxw/this-world-three-days-of-terror-the-charlie-hebdo-attacks
There was till 10th January a slightly longer version on YouTube, it has now gone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOhUB6Mhh1Y
It was broadcast on the 6th January 2016, but I have only just watched. It is a hour long.
I'd forgotten twice the media got to the landline to two barricade premises, the supermarket in Paris and the printers miles away, before the police. One wonders would that happen again?
Secondly, at the printers the initial police response was a double-manned car and in an exchange of fire (9mm pistols -v- AK47) one officer hit a gunman in the neck, which had some effect.
Note in the later attacks at the Bataclan venue, November 2015, a senior officer was first on the scene and engaged one gunman, again 9mm -v- Ak47 and set of a suicide vest. He was ordered to withdraw.
Initially the police response was to the shooting in the street, not the killings in a nearby street where Charlie Hebdo's offices were. Communications overload and shock come to mind.
I expect others will spot important aspects.
(Posted before) The NYT has an interesting commentary on the lessons to learn after the Bataclan attack: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/01/world/europe/response-to-paris-attacks-points-to-weaknesses-in-french-police-structure.html?&_r=0
There is a main thread for French CT, where this thread will one day go:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=15299
davidbfpo
01-26-2016, 08:48 PM
A Canadian TV report (this is the 1st part), with a podcast and their article starts with:
Following a series of deadly attacks in Paris on Nov. 13, Claude Moniquet, a former French intelligence official, summed up the performance of the security services this way: "Very clearly, if we have 130 people dying in Paris on a Friday in a terrorist attack, it is because the system didn't work."
(At the end) Society must understand that it's extremely difficult to do the job at the moment, because for two decades, intelligence and police services used to deal with a few dozen, maybe a few hundred people on the whole European continent...Maybe 500 were sympathizers of al-Qaeda 10 years ago. Today we have approximately 10,000 sympathizers of the Islamic State, which makes it mission impossible.Link:http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/paris-attacks-the-national-jan24-1.3419506
davidbfpo
02-19-2016, 09:39 PM
A Q&A article with a critic of CT policies in France, drawing upon the UK experience:
Counter-radicalisation in France draws on British and Dutch policies developed in the mid-2000s. It extends police action to areas of diversity management such as education, religion and social policy. With what results? Interview.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/wfd/francesco-ragazzi-rosemary-bechler/policed-multiculturalism-and-predicting-disaster
AdamG
03-16-2016, 12:14 PM
One suspect has been shot dead, officials say, and as many as two others are said to be on the run after a counter-terrorism raid in Brussels.
The suspects were believed to have been barricaded in a flat after earlier firing shots at the police.
Four police officers were wounded in the south Brussels suburb of Forest.
The raid was linked to last year's Paris attacks in which 130 people died. Islamic State (IS) militants have claimed responsibility for the attacks.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35809974
davidbfpo
03-16-2016, 12:47 PM
AdamG,
What is significant is that this planned operation was jointly done by Belgium and France. I expect the French provided the technical and on the ground surveillance, leaving the Belgians to do the 'executive action' and I note none of the photos seem to show French personnel.
davidbfpo
03-19-2016, 08:21 PM
A rather detailed explanation of this week's operation in Belguim and the capture of the only Paris attacker still alive:http://www.politico.eu/article/hunt-for-europes-most-wanted-man-abdeslam-isil-brussels-belgium-france-paris-attacks/
I am aware that the details of the operation being public has been criticised. According to one Tweet the locals stoned the police last night in Molenbeek.
Interesting that the prisoner was within 500m of his former home.
The BBC earlier today reported:
Abdeslam will fight extradition to France but has been co-operating with police, his lawyer says
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35852159
davidbfpo
03-20-2016, 08:12 PM
Somehow the NYT has an official French on what happened before and during the November 2015 Paris attacks. Just whether this is really in the public interest is a moot point:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/world/europe/a-view-of-isiss-evolution-in-new-details-of-paris-attacks.html? (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/world/europe/a-view-of-isiss-evolution-in-new-details-of-paris-attacks.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share&smprod=nytcore-ipad)
CNN's version (it appears to be a joint report with NYT):http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/21/europe/inside-paris-terror-attack/index.html
SWJ Blog
03-20-2016, 09:43 PM
A View of ISIS’s Evolution in New Details of Paris Attacks (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/a-view-of-isis%E2%80%99s-evolution-in-new-details-of-paris-attacks)
Entry Excerpt:
--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/a-view-of-isis%E2%80%99s-evolution-in-new-details-of-paris-attacks) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
davidbfpo
04-21-2016, 03:23 PM
A BBC report that looks back to look forwards:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36081915
Including a superb, hitherto unseen video clip:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duCIpdE-Q6I&list=RDduCIpdE-Q6I
davidbfpo
05-05-2016, 07:26 PM
Professor John Schindler wonders who was behind the Paris attacks; here is a paragraph:
Such oddities lead to nagging questions about who really attacked Paris last November and murdered 130 innocent people. While none can doubt that operatives linked with ISIS—some of them tightly so—executed that atrocity, who was in control of the plot is considered an open question by several Western intelligence services. To anybody versed in counterintelligence, key matters—Who designed the rather complex plot? Who paid for it and arranged the multinational logistics? Who provided training and related clandestine support?—remain unexplained to date. Yet such questions deserve real answers, given the atrocity visited on Paris.Link:http://observer.com/2016/05/the-world-needs-to-know-what-really-happened-last-november/
Sadly this is not the first time Paris has suffered from a "false flag" attack; as he explains it was the Algerian government last time.
davidbfpo
05-05-2016, 07:49 PM
David Wells, a CT SME with Australian-UK experience, has three articles examining European terrorism after Paris.
In the first one assumption I think John Schindler makes about the attackers use of phones and OPSEC is undermined:
. It appears that the group’s communications — at least during the operational phase of the attack — were unencrypted. Instead, the attackers used a communications strategy first popularised in HBO’s The Wire – burner phones[/URL].
He does wonder why several times.
Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/03/22/With-Saleh-Abdeslams-capture-comes-an-intelligence-windfall.aspx (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxC5BbqKtBE)
His second article ponders if Australia is prepared and refers to the AFP's approach being:
raid early and raid often
Link:[URL]http://www.theage.com.au/comment/terrorism-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-more-attacks-20160323-gnpn80.html
Third and IMHO a very unlikely prospect he asks is this time for a European intelligence agency:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/04/12/Post-Brussels-does-Europe-need-a-new-intelligence-agency.aspx
davidbfpo
06-15-2016, 03:22 PM
Thanks to ICSR @ Kings. So the French have bitten the "Prevent" "bullet", setting up centres to de-radicalize and a senior official stated:
...they are not intended for people returning from Syria/Iraq, but for “weak-willed volunteers”, largely youngsters already monitored as vulnerable to radicalisation.
...the centres will first deconstruct and counter jihadism’s ideological discourse, a task that will be “largely outsourced” to specialized associations which “are themselves still struggling a little, as has to be admitted”. Once they have successfully countered the ideology, they will enter a “therapeutic phase” that deals with any grave problems they have, including dropping-out of school/work, and those suffering from mental illness will be referred to a psychiatric clinic.....those who do not comply will face the wrath of the state.Link:http://icsr.info/2016/06/france-tests-tough-love-de-radicalisation-approach/
davidbfpo
07-05-2016, 06:53 PM
A commission has concluded, using the title and sub-title of one UK report:
Paris attacks inquiry finds multiple failings by French intelligence agencies; Commission calls for creation of national counter-terrorism agency and says Bataclan attack could have been prevented
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/05/paris-attacks-inquiry-multiple-failings-french-intelligence-agencies
The BBC report is different:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36711604
davidbfpo
07-16-2016, 01:34 PM
There is new thread debating CT after Nice and a small number of recent posts have been moved there.
davidbfpo
07-16-2016, 08:55 PM
The Nice murderer was not a Muslim and more. Much of the information coming from family members, sadly mental health issues historically. You decide was he radicalised or exploited by radicals? Plus where did he get all that money for his family?
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/bastille-day-terrorist-was-radicalised-within-months-and-sent-84/? (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/bastille-day-terrorist-was-radicalised-within-months-and-sent-84/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)
AdamG
07-17-2016, 10:50 PM
Paris (AFP) - French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve on Saturday called on young citizens to become reservists and help boost security forces in the wake of the country's latest terror attack.
France's "operational reservists" include French citizens with or without military experience as well as former soldiers.
"I want to call on all French patriots who wish to do so, to join this operational reserve," said Cazeneuve.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/paris-calls-willing-citizens-become-reservists-172826456.html?ref=gs
AdamG
07-17-2016, 11:50 PM
The Nice murderer was not a Muslim and more.
"Not a Muslim" isn't accurate, or ISIS would have never recruited him. He was of Muslim birth, but an Apostate whose psychosis overlapped ISIS's recruiting parameters. There's tons of former Muj now in jumpsuits moping around in detention areas that are cut from the same cloth - hypocritical assholes (especially on Man-Love Thursdays).
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nice-terror-killer-used-dating-8440137
AdamG
08-06-2016, 06:41 PM
I think we're lumping the ISIS attacks in Belgium into this thread.
Two female officers were injured after being attacked by a machete-wielding man near the police station in the Belgian city of Charleroi, the authorities said.
The perpetrator, who could be heard shouting “Allahu Akbar," was shot by a third officer on site, the RTL radio station claims, citing local police.
The attacker was taken to hospital in a critical condition, but later died of his injuries
https://www.rt.com/news/354876-belgium-police-attack-charleroi/
davidbfpo
09-06-2016, 09:17 PM
A short, fascinating and grim article on Mohammed Merah, who terrorised France for a few days in March 2012:http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/merah-%E2%80%98untold-story%E2%80%99-french-jihadist-icon
It is based on a new book:
In light of the remarkable upsurge of homegrown Islamic terror in France, a new exposé on Mohamed Merah by French journalist Alex Jordanov could hardly be more timely. Jordanov’s book is titled Merah, l’itinéraire secret—roughly, “Merah: The Untold Story”—and it lives up to its name.
The book is only available in French.
The author has been able to obtain access to the contents of the police case file on Merah, including numerous documents that have never before been made public: intelligence reports, interrogations of both Merah and suspected accomplices, wiretapped phone conversations, private e-mails, letters to family members, etc. He has supplemented his documentary research with interviews of people who knew or crossed paths with Merah. He also had the opportunity to view the video from Merah’s GoPro.From the article:
Jordanov’s research provides a unique window onto Merah’s life and crimes, offering important insight into his motives and the unflinching brutality of the ideology to which he subscribed. But it also reveals mind-boggling failings on the part of French counterterrorism. The story of Mohamed Merah is, in effect, that of a train wreck waiting to happen or, to paraphrase his brother Abdelghani, a ticking time bomb waiting to explode—while French intelligence looked on.
davidbfpo
11-01-2016, 07:52 PM
The reported cross-over between 'traditional' crime, not just drugs and terrorism in this linked article looks at France. The title and sub-title:
‘A training in violence’: the connecting line between France’s ‘war on drugs’ and jihadism. In France, there are many ways in which the pool of violence caused by drug prohibition bleeds into home-grown jihadism. But there is an alternative.
(Shortly afterwards) France has the most extreme and intense ‘war on drugs’ in western Europe – and there is growing evidence that there is a connecting line from that fact, to this wider crisis.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/drugpolicy/johann-hari/training-in-violence-connecting-line-between-france-war-on-drugs-and-jihadism? (https://www.opendemocracy.net/drugpolicy/johann-hari/training-in-violence-connecting-line-between-france-war-on-drugs-and-jihadism?utm_source=Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=e05cb9dbbc-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_717bc5d86d-e05cb9dbbc-407365113)
davidbfpo
01-06-2017, 09:14 PM
A WSJ report on a Belgian post-event review after the Paris and Brussels attacks, after clearly some extensive access if not a copy:http://www.wsj.com/articles/secret-report-shows-just-how-badly-belgium-mishandled-hunt-for-isis-operatives-1483630994
A catalogue of missed opportunities best shown in the concluding passage:
... three weeks before the Paris attacks, a Belgian terror-threat analysis body detected that Salah had changed his social-media profile picture to an ISIS flag. It alerted federal police. Nothing was done with that information; the police said the case had been closed.
OUTLAW 09
02-09-2017, 01:11 PM
The Engine Room
✔
@EngnRoom
One to watch: @CrossCheck, combining collaborative verification methods from @meedan @bellingcat + others
https://firstdraftnews.com/crosscheck-launches#
CrossCheck brings together expertise from media and technology industries to ensure hoaxes, rumors and false claims are swiftly debunked, and misleading or confusing stories are accurately reported. With the French presidential election as its primary focus, journalists from organizations across France will work together to find and verify content circulating publicly online, whether it is photographs, videos, memes, comment threads or news sites.
OUTLAW 09
02-13-2017, 12:38 PM
Russian info warfare hard at work now against France.....still heavily engaged also against Ukraine and Germany...
EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
A cooperation project between 17 newsrooms @crosscheck will help French voters to understand whom to trust online.
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/la-lutte-continue/#
Solid debunk by @DFRLab of that ridiculous "French journalists in Moscow are rooting for Macron" piece
https://medium.com/@DFRLab/frankly-unfair-3a43f4347dfe#.y2u4179fx#
OUTLAW 09
02-13-2017, 05:44 PM
Interesting visit for two self proclaimed proRussian Congressional supporters.....
US Congressmen King & Rohrabacher pay a visit to discuss Liberty & shared values w/(next president of France?) Marine Le Pen @MLP_officiel
BOTH also anti Ukraine........
davidbfpo
03-16-2017, 10:05 PM
The title is almost lurid, but the author does explain why he asks the question.
He concludes, with my emphasis:
Intelligence failures can be determined by the lack of information or the lack of information accuracy, which determines a distortion of the analytical process. This can occur either through ignoring or through the mistaken interpretation of data. The analysis of the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels suggests there is a new form of terrorism, leading to an unpredictable intelligence failure. The asymmetric character of jihadi attacks means that the success of combatting terrorism no longer relies just on the magnitude of available resources. Unlike other fields, the identification of the causes of errors of intelligence activity is especially difficult, given that their main resource – information – is difficult to quantify. Thus, one can legitimately ask the question – are we talking about a failure of the intelligence services or of a failure of public policies that determine the direction of action of these organizations?Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2017/03/15/were-the-attacks-in-paris-and-brussels-an-intelligence-failure/
The author is a SME @ Kings College:http://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/departments/dsd/people/dsd-a-to-z/karagiannis.aspx
OUTLAW 09
03-17-2017, 08:17 AM
The letter/package bomb that exploded yesterday in IMF HQs Paris injuring the mail person was sent by the same Greek left wing anarchist terror group that sent a similar bomb from Greece to the Germany Finance Ministry that was defused yesterday......
Same group behind a similar package bomb sent last year 2016 to the office of Merkel and also defused....
Hangs together with their dislike of IMF/Germany over the Greek financial bailout....
OUTLAW 09
04-06-2017, 11:20 AM
Le Front National is in desperate need of money. In her search for funding Le Pen has hired fixers with connections to the Russians, inc RIS
davidbfpo
04-16-2017, 12:40 PM
A long read from the NYT on the French academic Gilles Kepel, which has revealing sections like these two:
In September, a landmark survey commissioned by the Montaigne Institute found that 28 percent of French Muslims had adopted values “clearly opposed to the values of the republic,” with a mix of “authoritarian” and “secessionist” views, including support for polygamy and the niqab, or full-face veil, and opposition to laws enforcing secularism.
(Two later) Jean-Pierre Filiu, another prominent French scholar of the Islamic world, pointed out that several thousand Muslims marched for peace in Mantes-la-Jolie after the Abballa murders (who murdered two police officers at home), many of them bearing pictures of the murdered couple and posters denouncing terrorism, and laid wreaths on the steps of the local Police Headquarters. There was no one there to greet them, and not much news coverage. “The jihadis want to blur the lines, but the lines should be clear,” Filiu told me. “It’s not the Salafis who are against us, and not the Muslims. It’s the jihadis.”Link:https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/magazine/france-election-gilles-kepel-islam.html? (https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/magazine/france-election-gilles-kepel-islam.html?referer=https://t.co/AFdLkUctzL)
davidbfpo
05-02-2017, 06:39 PM
The NYT has an interesting article on the effect of Algeria on the French political scene, but nothing on the impact of those Algerians who are now voters - a rather large omission, perhaps another article is due?
Link:https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/01/world/europe/echoes-of-colonial-conflict-in-algeria-reverberate-in-french-politics.html? (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/01/world/europe/echoes-of-colonial-conflict-in-algeria-reverberate-in-french-politics.html?emc=edit_mbe_20170502&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=67232673&te=1&_r=0)
OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 11:32 AM
Excellent article on Russia and the French ultra right party Front National leader Le Pen.....
@NataliaAntonova on Russia and Le Pen. Read it people!http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-may-have-lost-france-elections-but-the-kremlin-vladimir-putin-is-winning/#
AdamG
02-06-2018, 04:27 AM
The only known surviving suspect in the 2015 Paris terror attacks appeared in court in Brussels Monday, but refused to cooperate or answer questions.
It was the first public appearance for 28-year-old Salah Abdeslam since his arrest in Belgium in March 2016, according to Reuters news agency. He is on trial for charges related to a gunfight with authorities that preceded his arrest.
Abdeslam is accused of attempted murder in a terrorist context and illegal possession of firearms, charges which carry up to 20 years in prison if convicted. The prosecutor is calling for the maximum sentence.
In court Monday, Abdeslam looked very different than the clean-shaven young man who appeared in his arrest photos. His beard was full and his hair was longer and combed back, according to CNN affiliate BFM TV.
Abdeslam had asked to be present at his trial. But he refused to stand or to answer questions, BFM TV reported, and even balked at confirming his identity when asked by the court, telling those assembled that silence was "his defense."
But Abdeslam did lecture the court about the treatment of Muslims by the justice system, reported BFM TV.
"What I see is that Muslims are judged in the worst way," he said. "My silence does not make me a criminal ... I am not afraid of you, nor of your allies. I place my trust in Allah. I have nothing to add."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/suspect-in-paris-attacks-refuses-to-cooperate-in-court/ar-BBIJsJ9?ocid=spartandhp
davidbfpo
05-03-2018, 07:16 PM
From a French think tank (IFRI):
This study, based on original judicial sources, assesses the profiles of 137 individuals sentenced in France for cases related to jihadism.
Among other things, the study reveals several common denominators including a lower level of education, poorer integration into the labor market, higher levels of criminal activity, and stronger ties to the Maghreb and to sub-Saharan Africa than the average French citizen. Moreover, a qualitative analysis provides an understanding of the processes of radicalization and subsequent participation in terrorist activities. As such, it expounds the role played by group dynamics, the internet, and prisons. This study further illustrates the strains imposed on the judicial and penal systems by the jihadist phenomenon. Relapse is specifically explored, notably through the cases of individuals convicted of terrorism, who, after serving their sentence, launched attacks on French soil. The subject is all the more topical in light of the likely release from prison of some sixty individuals, sentenced for acts of terrorism, in the upcoming two years.
It comes with a lengthy presentation in a rolling PPT.
Link:https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/etudes-de-lifri/focus-strategique/137-shades-terrorism-french-jihadists-courts
davidbfpo
11-09-2018, 02:48 PM
A short Q&A article after the publication of a book in French, under the headline
How the planners of the 2015 Paris attacks were systematically eliminated
So the intelligence group within IS was targeted, no great surprise as the French can and have been ruthless before in attacking their enemies. A curious sentence:
From 2015, the paradigm shifted, the international community understood that the Islamic State could strike anywhere in the world. Even the Russians and the Chinese cooperated.
Link:https://www.france24.com/en/20181108-france-intelligence-2015-paris-attacks-masterminds-eliminated-suc-book-islamic-state?
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