COIN Polling in Afghanistan

[SWJED]

31 December Toronto Star - Taking the Pulse of Kandahar (http://www.thestar.com/News/article/166629) by Oakland Ross.


Here's a novel idea: armies don't need to be great big killing machines.

They can also conduct public-opinion polls.

This, it seems, is the modern way. "It's not pure war-fighting any more," says Lt.-Cmdr. Wynn Polnicky, part of the 2,500-strong Canadian military contingent currently waging war in southern Afghanistan against a shadowy force of fundamentalist Islamic rebels known as the Taliban.

"It's pretty clear we have an insurgency here, but what really matters is what people think. So, just ask them. It's not an earth-shaking idea."...

Traditionally, armies have tended to train most of their attention – not to mention almost all of their gun sights – on the firearm-toting fighters located on the opposite side of the front line, otherwise known as the enemy.

In Polnicky's view, however, it is not just the enemy that you need to be concerned about.

It's everybody else...

31 December Prairie Pundit post - Counterinsurgency Polling (http://prairiepundit.blogspot.com/2006/12/counterinsurgency-polling.html) by Council member Merv Benson.


... In counterinsurgency warfare the people are considered the center of gravity. They are what the fight is ultimately over. However, polling may not give you that much information even if it is negative, because the enemy in Afghanistan and Iraq is not trying to win hearts and minds, it is trying to intimidate. Most polling has shown that al Qaeda has the support of around five percent of the population in Iraq, but this lack of support has certainly not "intimidated" al Qaeda.

[goesh]

I'm trying my best to remember the name of that game show in which the host would ask questions then say, " survey says!" Polling the villagers - wow! What if they all said, "get the hell out of here!" - would the Kanucks then pull out? So, some strangers from a powerful, foreign armed force come around asking questions. Hmmmm, what to say, what to say - what will they do if we tell them the wrong answer? Wouldn't that be running through your mind?

[Stu-6]

If they say “get the hell out” you need some follow on questions to find out why and if there is some way to live together. Polling is a good idea as long as there is some follow through.

[Tom Odom]

I'm trying my best to remember the name of that game show in which the host would ask questions then say, " survey says!" Polling the villagers - wow! What if they all said, "get the hell out of here!" - would the Kanucks then pull out? So, some strangers from a powerful, foreign armed force come around asking questions. Hmmmm, what to say, what to say - what will they do if we tell them the wrong answer? Wouldn't that be running through your mind?

That would be "Family Feud"--seems appropriate!

Best

Tom

[marct]

I'd be interested to find out a) who is actually doing the surveys and b) who is getting the data. Most of the Canadian reconstruction money goes through CIDA (http://www.acdi-cida.gc.ca/index-e.htm). Most of the CIDA work has been in the form of micro-loan programs, reconstruction work and a PRT in Kandahar. The basic idea is to use a community development model (details here (http://www.acdi-cida.gc.ca/cidaweb/acdicida.nsf/En/JUD-129153625-S6T))

In general, there has been a fairly closely tied relationship (http://www.canada-afghanistan.gc.ca/menu-en.asp)between government agencies, including the military. At least that is what is coming out on the Government web sites and seems to be born out.


Since August 2005, a Canadian PRT has operated in Kandahar City, where it will remain until February 2009. The PRT brings together elements from the Canadian Forces (CF), Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada, the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), and civilian police led by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) in an integrated Canadian effort known as the “All of Government” approach. Approximately 350 personnel are based at the PRT site at Camp Nathan Smith in Kandahar City.
Source: DND (http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/newsroom/view_news_e.asp?id=1703)

On this particular polling, I've been searching around, but I can't find the questionaire yet.

Marc

ps. If the polls tel us to get out, then we will probably leave when we are scheduled to leave - Feb 2009:cool:

[Steve Blair]

Polls are the most amazing things. They can say pretty much anything you want them to, no matter what questions are asked.

Now that I've gotten that cynical outburst out of my system, it would be nice to see what sort of questions are being asked. I know something similar to this (although more of a village census than a poll) was tried in Vietnam in the latter CORDS era, and it was supposed to have worked fairly well. Of course, it's hard to say now just how well it DID work.

If nothing else this might give people an insight into issues that matter to the locals. If they act on that insight is, of course, a different critter.

[marct]

Polls are the most amazing things. They can say pretty much anything you want them to, no matter what questions are asked.
....
If nothing else this might give people an insight into issues that matter to the locals. If they act on that insight is, of course, a different critter.

Oh there's a whole host of issues with doing this type of survey work <wry grin>. I do too much of it as a consultant to not know how badly interpretational pressuppositions can skew analysis :( . What I would really like to get is not only a copy of the questions, but also the full methodology, since there are ways to focus in and fine tune survey results.

My gut guess is that they are not using the type of methodology that I wold recommend in this situation. I suspect that they have outsourced the surveying to someone like Angus Reid or one of the other big survey firms when it should be integrated into the PRT and using multiple data sources.

Marc

[marct]

Just came across this blog entry.


Why Canadians don't know the trivia that's not trivial (http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2006/11/why-canadians-dont-know-trivia-thats.html)
Quickly now - no Googling: can you name three projects Canada's Kandahar Provincial Reconstruction Team (KPRT) has undertaken in the past year? The first wiseguy to spout off that "they dug a well" gets a slap in the head for his trouble.

If you couldn't think of one specific thing, you're not alone - I couldn't either, until I did a bit of digging. The truth is that the KPRT has almost a hundred projects either on the go or completed right now, put together by CF, Civilian Police (CivPol), DFAIT, or CIDA personnel with the team. Following are some highlights that I found particularly interesting.

Worth looking at for a number of reasons, but I think the integrated approach - military, economic, LE and political - is a good model that has applications elsewhere.

Marc