View Full Version : Demography: A Sea Change in the Muslim World

02-11-2013, 07:23 PM
Demography sometimes appears here, although within threads. This is worth reading, even if the impact is far away!

Thanks to RCP a David Ignatius column, which opens with:
Something startling is happening in the Muslim world -- and no, I don't mean the Arab Spring or the growth of Islamic fundamentalism. According to a leading demographer, a "sea change" is producing a sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates and a "flight from marriage" among Arab women.

Link to article:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/02/10/a_sea_change_in_the_muslim_world_116970.html

Using data for 49 Muslim-majority countries and territories, he found that fertility rates declined an average of 41 percent between 1975-80 and 2005-10, compared with a 33 percent decline for the world as a whole.....Iran's population will begin to shrink in two decades and will decline by more than 50 percent by the end of the century if current trends continue.

Link to original one of two articles:http://www.aei.org/press/foreign-and-defense-policy/fertility-decline-in-the-muslim-world-a-veritable-sea-change-still-curiously-unnoticed-release/

02-11-2013, 07:37 PM
This is old news. Look at the long drop in Turkish fertility rates.

(It was over 5 in 1975. Also notice how *supposedly* the drop stopped when the AKP came to power. I'm not convinced of this particular feature.)

I actually mentioned this on my blog years ago. (http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.de/2009/06/europe-bashers-and-their-next.html)

Lots of loudmouths kept talking nonsense about Muslims taking over this or that country and stuff.
No, Muslims are normal people, and social factors totally outweigh religion.

02-11-2013, 08:05 PM
In Germany the number of kids per woman depends strongly on the education of the mother, there is no difference between native German women and women with Turkish or other migrational background. Religion per se is not the game changer, this is known for many years.

Therefore, an improved education of women in typical Muslim countries will IMHO invitable cause lower birth rates. Women in Iran are quite educated....