North Korea: 2012-2016

[JMA]

200 executions at a shooting range with an audience! And here I thought the only open gate to hell was in the Great Lakes region of Africa.

How has this sub-human regime been allowed to remain in existence?

First Truman was not up to the confrontation with China over Korea then Chinese support has allowed the regime to survive up to today.

I suggest that when the regime eventually implodes that China and the US pony up $1trillion each to rebuild a destroyed nation.

[davidbfpo]

JMA asked:
How has this sub-human regime been allowed to remain in existence?

The North Korean regime has survived partly due to external, now mainly Chinese support; historically the USSR provided some support and at the time of the Korean War 'Uncle Joe' was at the helm. Only after Gorbachev took power IIRC did Russia effectively turn away.

The real reason for survival has been the apparent strength of its military and ruthlessness. Plus the uncertainty over having WMD. South Korea has only been a powerful economy in the last thirty years, with democracy arriving late.

How will the world, let alone the neighbours, react to a regime change? Personally I don't think outsiders will have much impact. Anyone who emerges as the new leader is very unlikely to be different. Sadly.

[AdamG]

9/10 for Creativity.


A North Korean official has been executed with a flame-thrower, South Korean media has reported, amid a crackdown on loyalists of Kim Jong-un's purged uncle.

As many as 11 senior party officials with close ties to Jang Song-taek have apparently recently been executed or sent to political prison camps

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10750082/North-Korean-official-executed-by-flame-thrower.html

[JMA]

Clearly neither China nor South Korea/US want more instability.

But... it is the enslaved people of North Korea who deserve freedom.

The welfare of the North Korean people should come first... not the concerns of the powers that created the problem in the first place.



JMA asked:

The North Korean regime has survived partly due to external, now mainly Chinese support; historically the USSR provided some support and at the time of the Korean War 'Uncle Joe' was at the helm. Only after Gorbachev took power IIRC did Russia effectively turn away.

The real reason for survival has been the apparent strength of its military and ruthlessness. Plus the uncertainty over having WMD. South Korea has only been a powerful economy in the last thirty years, with democracy arriving late.

How will the world, let alone the neighbours, react to a regime change? Personally I don't think outsiders will have much impact. Anyone who emerges as the new leader is very unlikely to be different. Sadly.

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Recent satellite images show two new North Korean frigates, the largest surface combat ships the nation's navy has constructed in a quarter-century, a North Korea-watching website reported Thursday.

The website, 38 North, says the frigates are designed to carry one helicopter each and appear to be designed to counter South Korean submarines and protect fisheries. The vessels appear to be equipped with anti-submarine rocket launchers.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-2629706/New-NKorea-warships-seen-satellite-images.html

[Biggus]

North Korea has threatened to reap "merciless" retaliation on the USA if they do not ban Seth Rogen and James Franco’s forthcoming comedy, The Interview.

The government issued a statement about the film, in which the actors star as two journalists ordered by the CIA to assassinate Kim Jong-un, saying that the country considered the movie "an act of war" and a "wanton act of terror". He also labelled Rogen a "gangster filmmaker".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/north-korea-threatens-to-wage-war-on-usa-over-seth-rogen-and-james-francos-kim-jongun-assassination-film-9562426.html

[JMA]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/north-korea-threatens-to-wage-war-on-usa-over-seth-rogen-and-james-francos-kim-jongun-assassination-film-9562426.html

This will be worth another few million people going to see this movie. These idiots never learn.

[AdamG]

Best Korea thinks this is not Best OPSEC Practices.


South Korea said Thursday it would create a combined army unit with the United States, reportedly tasked with destroying North Korea's weapons of mass destruction in the event of an all-out conflict.

The mechanised unit led by a US major general will be set up in the first half of next year, the South's defence ministry said, as part of elaborate preparations for any future war between the two Koreas.

"It will be the first combined 'field combat' unit to carry out wartime operations," a defence ministry spokesman said without elaborating on its mission.

If war breaks out, the unit would be tasked with eliminating weapons of mass destruction in the nuclear-armed North, Yonhap news agency said.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-korea-create-army-unit-destroy-norths-nukes-091716404.html

[Bill Moore]

China Warns North Korean Nuclear Threat Is Rising

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-warns-north-korean-nuclear-threat-is-rising-1429745706


Pyongyang could double nuclear-weapons arsenal by next year, according to latest Beijing estimates


The Chinese estimates reflect growing concern in Beijing over North Korea’s weapons program and what they see as U.S. inaction while President Barack Obama focuses on a nuclear deal with Iran.

A well-armed North Korea may prompt the U.S. to adopt countermeasures, especially in missile defense. Adm. William Gortney, head of U.S. Northern Command, said this month that defense officials believe North Korea can now mount a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile called the KN-08. U.S. officials don’t believe the missile has been tested, but experts estimate it has a range of about 5,600 miles—within reach of the western edge of the continental U.S., including California.

I have to admit I'm surprised Beijing would reflect publically that they're concerned about U.S. inaction regarding North Korea. There could be a number of strategic reasons why they would make that comment, but putting conspiracy theories and sophisticated strategizing aside, could it be for plain ole economic reasons they want to the region remain stable?

[davidbfpo]

Citing Bill M. in part:
I have to admit I'm surprised Beijing would reflect publically that they're concerned about U.S. inaction regarding North Korea. There could be a number of strategic reasons why they would make that comment, but putting conspiracy theories and sophisticated strategizing aside, could it be for plain ole economic reasons they want to the region remain stable?

China certainly has a great stake in regional and international stability, even more so as their economy becomes more dependent on exports. Stability has to include the rather quixotic regime next door in North Korea, which it appears they too do not understand enough.

If the USA has been focussing on Iranian nuclear matters to the detriment of shared Sino-American concerns over DPRK, then a public statement is a good way of reminding the USA other issues exist.

[AdamG]

Temporary Autonomous thread for maximum impact.


SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea's intelligence agency said Wednesday that Kim Jong Un's defense chief had been "removed" from his position in neighboring North Korea.

It was unclear whether Hyon Yong Chol had been executed or merely ousted by the regime.

A spokesman for the NIS intelligence agency told NBC News he could not confirm news agency reports that Hyon was shot to pieces with an anti-aircraft gun in front of hundreds of spectators.


Last month, the U.S.-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) said satellite images had uncovered evidence that several people had been executed by anti-aircraft guns at Kanggon in October.

The satellite images recorded some "very unusual activity" at a 100-yard firing range typically used for pistols and light machine guns, HRNK said, when a battery of six ZPU-4 anti-aircraft guns — which have a range of 8,000 yards — were deployed there.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korea-defense-chief-removed-role-over-nap-reports-n358176

No figures in yet, but popcorn and hot dog stand concession sales were said to be respectable.

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

The brutality of the regime appears to gather pace. A BBC report today pointed out that:
Of the seven pallbearers at former leader Kim Jong-il's 2011 funeral, apart from Kim Jong-un, all have either been executed, have lost their jobs or have not been seen in some time
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-32716749

A reader reminded me that Leeds University here in the UK has for odd reasons become the main watcher of North Korea and commends the blogs run by Adam Cathcart:http://sinonk.com/ and http://adamcathcart.com/

[davidbfpo]

I have merged two smaller threads into the renamed main thread on North Korea:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=17846

It has had 476 posts and 87.5k views since 2006.

[AdamG]

OSINT photo analysis.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/05/01/does-north-korea-execute-people-with-anti-aircraft-guns-new-satellite-images-suggest-the-rumors-may-be-true/?tid=pm_world_pop_b


According to Greg Scarlatoiu and Joseph Bermudez Jr., the authors of HRNK's report, the the antiaircraft guns in the picture appear to be six ZPU-4s, Soviet-made heavy weaponry first used during the Korean war. They are positioned about 100 feet from the standing figures. A few feet behind the antiaircraft guns, there appear to be a line of troops and/or equipment, the report notes, with buses and trucks at the site suggesting that people had been bused in to watch whatever was happening.

Shout-out for Joe Bermudez. Good job.
http://www.kpajournal.com/about/

[davidbfpo]

Adam Cathcart comments on the leadership's problem:
But given what we know about how Kim operates and how he wishes to be perceived, it is more than possible that Hyon’s basic lack of interest in the personality cult is what led to his downfall.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/15/north-korea-execution-kim-jong-un-rumour?

[AdamG]

More shennanigans from Lil'Kim


Photographs showing Kim Jong-un proudly watching as a North Korean missile was launched from an underwater submarine were manipulated by state propagandists, experts claimed on Tuesday.

German aerospace experts said photos of the launch were "strongly modified", including reflections of the missile exhaust flame in the water which did not line up with the missile itself.

"Considering the track record of North Korean deceptions, it seems sensible to assume that any North Korean SLBM [submarine-launched ballistic missile] capability is still a very long time in the future, if it will ever surface," Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker, of Schmucker Technologie, told Reuters.

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/north-korea-photoshopped-kim-jongun-sub-missile-pictures-20150520-gh6927?stb=red

[davidbfpo]

A bizarre twist to this thread and the headline is enough:
Kim Jong-un's 'brat pack' brother jets in to London for Eric Clapton concert
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11622687/Kim-Jong-uns-brat-pack-brother-jets-in-to-London-for-Eric-Clapton-concert.html

[AdamG]

SEOUL — North Korea has been planting anti-personnel mines alongside the inter-Korean border for the past couple of months to prevent North Korean soldiers from fleeing to South Korea, a South Korean official said Sunday.

http://www.koreatimesus.com/n-korea-plants-landmines-in-dmz-apparently-to-prevent-soldiers-fleeing/


A teenaged North Korean soldier walked across the world's most heavily militarized border on Monday in a bid to defect to South Korea, South Korean Defense Ministry officials said.

While there are more than a thousand defections from North Korea to South Korea every year, most defectors come via China and it is rare for a North Korean to crossing the heavily mined Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The last such crossing was in 2012.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/15/us-southkorea-northkorea-defector-idUSKBN0OV04W20150615

[davidbfpo]

Found just after a tip from FP:http://38north.org/

From their 'About':
a website devoted to analysis of North Korea. While it strives to break new ground, the site’s main objective is to bring the best possible analysis to both seasoned North Korea watchers and general audiences alike. Too often analysis of the North is permeated by inexperience, littered with inaccurate information or grounded in poorly deducted reasoning. We believe no one really knows for sure what is going on in North Korea, but we can at least try to understand the possibilities. Similarly, anyone who professes certainty should be viewed with the greatest skepticism. To accomplish these objectives, 38 North harnesses the experience of long-time observers of North Korea and others who have dealt directly with North Koreans. It draws on other experts outside the field who might bring fresh, well-informed insights to those of us who follow North Korea.


From Wiki:
is a blog about North Korea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) maintained by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_University)'s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_H._Nitze_School_of_Advanced_International_Stu dies) and authored by its faculty and by guest commentators. The site analyzes reporting on North Korea from a cautious perspective.

[AdamG]

North Korea appears to be intensifying nuclear and ballistic missile development efforts that could lead to further international sanctions against the Kim Jong Un regime.

North Korea’s state controlled media KCNA said Tuesday the country’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon was in full operation. The reactor was shut down in 2007. However following North Korea’s third nuclear test in 2013, Pyongyang said it would restart the facility.

Some military analysts, studying satellite images of the complex, asserted back in January that the nuclear bomb fuel reactor was again operational. But until now there had not been any official confirmation.

http://www.voanews.com/content/south-korea-warns-north-against-rocket-launch/2964186.html

[SWJ Blog]

North Korea: Don’t Pick A Fight We Can’t Win (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/north-korea-don%E2%80%99t-pick-a-fight-we-can%E2%80%99t-win)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/north-korea-don%E2%80%99t-pick-a-fight-we-can%E2%80%99t-win) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

A commentary from Kings of War:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2016/01/to-boost-or-not-to-boost-north-koreas-nuclear-trajectory/?

[SWJ Blog]

South Korea: U.S., Seoul Discussing Options to Deploy 'Strategic Assets' (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/south-korea-us-seoul-discussing-options-to-deploy-strategic-assets)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/south-korea-us-seoul-discussing-options-to-deploy-strategic-assets) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[Bill Moore]

First I saw this, and thought this certainly isn't deterrence and it doesn't look like something CSIS would propose as a viable sole action to deter North Korea from conducting cyber attacks.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2016/01/28/0401000000AEN20160128000200315.html

Outside information questioning Kim's legitimacy can be response to N.K. cyber attacks: CSIS report


Penetrating outside information into North Korea questioning the legitimacy of leader Kim Jong-un should be considered as a key means to retaliate against and curb the communist nation's cyber attacks, a U.S. think tank said.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) made the suggestion in a report on policy suggestions on how to counter the North's cyber operations, saying responding to cyber attacks with cyber attacks won't be effective because the North isn't as dependent on networks as South Korea and the U.S. are.

"Therefore, responses should be tailored to leverage North Korea's specific weaknesses and sensitivities," said the report released this week. "North Korea has unique asymmetric vulnerabilities as well, especially to outside information that attacks the legitimacy of the regime."

Then I found and read the report (executive version), and the recommendations are fortunately more comprehensive than simply pushing more information to the North.

http://csis.org/files/publication/151123_Cha_NorthKoreaCyber_handout_final.pdf

NORTH KOREA’S CYBER OPERATIONS: STRATEGY AND RESPONSES

It identifies four policy objectives:


a. Prepare a graduated series of direct responses targeting North Korea’s cyber organizations.
b. Curb North Korea’s operational freedom in cyberspace.
c. Identify and leverage North Korea’s vulnerabilities to
maintain strategic balance.
d. Adopt damage mitigation and resiliency measures to ensure that critical systems and networks maintain operational continuity despite suffering an attack.

Provides four recommendations for the U.S., and then provides seven recommendations (culturally insensitive) for the U.S.-ROK Alliance, one of which was Consider
exploiting North Korea’s vulnerability to outside information.

By all means keep pumping information into North Korea, in fact governments can't stop it, because if they stop non-state actors are engaged in their own information campaign against the backwards and incredibly cruel KJU regime. North Korea a festering wound from the 20th Century that continues to threaten regional and increasingly global stability, not to mention the human rights atrocities.

However, I don't think the use of information is an effective deterrent if we're truly talking deterrence. For one, this implies we would only push information north in response to a provocative act (cyber attack, nuclear weapons test, long range missile test, a kinetic engagement). While the ROK PSYOP unit may only blare it loud speakers near the border in response to a provocative attack, others are pushing information via balloons and items smuggled across the border such as DVDs. The Kim family façade is slowly cracking, we should never stop pushing the truth forward, and using it as a deterrence implies we would do just that if North Korea ceased the undesired behavior. Second, if anything, the information is provocative and North Korea is hardly deterred by it. They continue to conduct cyber activities, test long range missiles, and recently conducted another nuclear weapons test.

A recent article in the strategist indicates some of the information warfare activities ongoing.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/information-warfare-on-the-korean-peninsula/


At the same time, however, US–ROK forces have also engaged in a war through information—particularly focusing on psychological operations. Following the sinking of the Cheonan warship and subsequent shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, the South Korean military established a new psyops unit to diffuse news and information into North Korea—whether through radio transmissions, balloon leaflets, DVDs, and possibly USB memory sticks. Since then, it has sent thousands of leaflets and transmitted broadcast into North Korea using mobile broadcast vehicles and six relay stations. While its effects on North Korean society are difficult to ascertain, North Korea has previously threatened to fire across the heavily fortified border to stop such campaigns.

With changing strategic realities on the Korean Peninsula, information warfare has important ramifications for the US–ROK defence strategy.

Another recent article of interest.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20151110.aspx

Information Warfare: North Korea Surrenders To The Future


Despite the high price of these North Korea smart phones (about $500) there are over 300,000 users, many of them members of the new “trader class” who have made a lot of money operating legal markets. There are believed to be over a million illegal cell phones, which can access the international Internet if near the Chinese border or a foreign wi-fi hotspot within North Korea. These hotspots are available in the North Korean capital. There, many embassies have taken to installing powerful wi-fi systems that can be easily used by nearby North Koreans.


North Koreans have noticed the abundance of Korean language Internet content down south. Those who can connect to get to these South Korean can use “grabber” apps (many of them available free) to download all the content on a website. This can then be passed around inside North Korea via a USB memory stick. The North Korean government does not like this sort of thing but so far has preferred to avoid international condemnation for cracking down on embassy Internet use.

It appears that even North Korea can't resist the ever growing integration of globalization. That will hopefully be a good thing.

[max161]

See Joshua Stanton's recent blog post here:
CSIS: Deter North Korea with subversive information
Posted on January 29, 2016 by Joshua Stanton
http://freekorea.us/2016/01/29/csis-deter-north-korea-with-subversive-information/

I concur with Joshua here (and I forwarded a copy of the report to him and you can download it at this link: https://csis.org/files/publication/151216_Cha_NorthKoreasCyberOperations_Web.pdf per my email last week I sent out to everyone on my national security listserve)


“The deliberate introduction of additional media and information into North Korea’s networks and population may serve as a potent means of responding to cyber attacks without resorting to use of force, armed attacks or countermeasures,” it said. [Yonhap]


Joshua Stanton: "Well, isn’t that what I’ve been saying since 2010? The times have finally caught up with me. By the way, if you can lay your hands on a copy of the original report, I’d be most grateful."


I provide an outline of some of the information and influence activities in my 2004 research paper on a long term strategy for the Korean peninsula beyond the nuclear crisis at this link (pages 97-102) http://bit.ly/1CWA5vm

[max161]

A lot of this is being done by defector organizations. The amount of Korean news and Korean television dramas (on DVDs, thumb drives, and the Chinese video players) which are loved by the Korean people living in the north is growing significantly (I use those word very deliberately - I no longer use 'north Koreans' except in relation to the Kim Family Regime and the elite - the rank and file population should be referred to as Koreans who live in the north under the most oppressive regime in the 20th and 21st centuries). the north has shown how afraid it is of information coming from the South in August and most recently as the ROKs restarted their propaganda broadcast which are really only symbolic. The real information effort is being done electronically. Follow the Daily NK news site as the Korean defectors from the north

I have been talking to my Korean counterparts about a program to work with the Korean entertainment industry to produce Korean dramas that are based on unification. My recommendation is that they design dramas that take people through conflict and regime collapse and then show how ROK policies if implemented and followed by the Korean people living in the north will result in President's Park's Bonanza for Unification (the Dresden Initiative) They can show various scenarios such as how HA operations will be conducted, how people will transition to land ownership, how the integrated political system will function - e.g., local governance by free elections, what happens to second tier leaders when they do not attack the South and cooperate with the ROK military, how they can benefit from providing information about WMD and ensuring it is not proliferated off the peninsula (and what happens to those who do try) and much more. This could really help to prepare the population psychologically. I would of course also like to show them how resistance can work and what the Korean people living in the north could do to resist the regime.

There is so much we can do if we put our minds to it.

[flagg]

First I saw this, and thought this certainly isn't deterrence and it doesn't look like something CSIS would propose as a viable sole action to deter North Korea from conducting cyber attacks.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2016/01/28/0401000000AEN20160128000200315.html

Outside information questioning Kim's legitimacy can be response to N.K. cyber attacks: CSIS report



Then I found and read the report (executive version), and the recommendations are fortunately more comprehensive than simply pushing more information to the North.

http://csis.org/files/publication/151123_Cha_NorthKoreaCyber_handout_final.pdf

NORTH KOREA’S CYBER OPERATIONS: STRATEGY AND RESPONSES

It identifies four policy objectives:



Provides four recommendations for the U.S., and then provides seven recommendations (culturally insensitive) for the U.S.-ROK Alliance, one of which was Consider .

By all means keep pumping information into North Korea, in fact governments can't stop it, because if they stop non-state actors are engaged in their own information campaign against the backwards and incredibly cruel KJU regime. North Korea a festering wound from the 20th Century that continues to threaten regional and increasingly global stability, not to mention the human rights atrocities.

However, I don't think the use of information is an effective deterrent if we're truly talking deterrence. For one, this implies we would only push information north in response to a provocative act (cyber attack, nuclear weapons test, long range missile test, a kinetic engagement). While the ROK PSYOP unit may only blare it loud speakers near the border in response to a provocative attack, others are pushing information via balloons and items smuggled across the border such as DVDs. The Kim family façade is slowly cracking, we should never stop pushing the truth forward, and using it as a deterrence implies we would do just that if North Korea ceased the undesired behavior. Second, if anything, the information is provocative and North Korea is hardly deterred by it. They continue to conduct cyber activities, test long range missiles, and recently conducted another nuclear weapons test.

A recent article in the strategist indicates some of the information warfare activities ongoing.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/information-warfare-on-the-korean-peninsula/



Another recent article of interest.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20151110.aspx

Information Warfare: North Korea Surrenders To The Future





It appears that even North Korea can't resist the ever growing integration of globalization. That will hopefully be a good thing.

It's hard finding detailed information on non kinetic UW operations to foment civil resistance in the former Warsw Pact.

But I wonder if there are lessons to be learned in comparing known/suspected efforts against the Warsaw Pact(70's-80's) with known/suspected efforts against North Korea today.

Im reminded of Bob's World's post from 2011 that I think is highly relevant:

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=115945&postcount=16

Did Rome's roads matter in the rise of the Barbarians?

Did the invention of the printing press matter in the rise of the people of Europe against the Holy Roman Empire?

Did Britain's global telegraph network matter in the rise of her colonial populaces?

Did the internet matter in Tunisia and Egypt.

Answer to all: Yes.

When a state relies upon overt controls of a populace to maintain stability, the speed and availability of information is their greatest threat. As information and transportation technology continue to emerge, control-based systems of governance will continue to become less and less viable.

To this I would add the following questions questions:

Exactly how effective was external support for non kinetic UW/civil resistance in Facilitating and/or accelerating the implosion of the Warsaw Pact?

How applicable is the Warsaw Pact civil resistance experience with likely North Korean scenarios tactically and operationally(and accounting for wireless internet as an additional catalyst/tool)?

How does the strategic political environment amongst key external stakeholders both align and differ comparing the Warsaw Pact experience and North Korea?

[Bill Moore]

As long as KJU maintains control of his security forces there is no potential for a non violent revolution to be successful. The ideology tied to juche has created a high degree of distrust, even within families. More so than what we saw in the former communist eastern Europe.

While information won't deter provocative acts like cyber attacks, the decreased confidence it creates between the government and its people may prevent KJU from launching a full scale war, where the people in the north could welcome the south. On the other hand it could trigger a full out war, because it could be perceived as an existential threat.

But what if we see a North Korean Arab Spring like event? How do you think the U.S., ROK, PRC, and other countries would respond? I suspect much like the Arab Spring we would cheer it on, but provide no support due to the high level of uncertainty. It is a tragic situation, maybe one global citizens will impact more than states.

[Bill Moore]

External support in eastern Europe came in the form of information, money, advice, both from states and the church.

[flagg]

External support in eastern Europe came in the form of information, money, advice, both from states and the church.

As I understand it(rightly or wrongly), the Catholic Church under Polish Pope John Paul II had a partnership or at least closely aligned interests with Reagan Administration led NATO during the 80's with Poland/Solidarity being one of the key points of focus.

As I understand it, there are private groups in South Korea that may be acting unilaterally with efforts of quite questionable effectiveness like balloon flights laden with western media.

On the surface it seems similar, but I suspect a key difference is that private non kinetic efforts against the Warsaw Pact were aligned(or not contrary to) with government policy, while private efforts against North Korea may be an embarrassing disconnect with South Korean/allied strategic and diplomatic policy.

As indicated here:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/01/we-hacked-north-korea-with-balloons-and-usb-drives/283106/

Is that a crucial and key difference?

Could the behaviour of some key partners/allies(US, Japan perhaps) be akin to perpetually refinancing the "North Korean mortgage" and pushing out the "balloon payments" when NK falls?

[flagg]

As long as KJU maintains control of his security forces there is no potential for a non violent revolution to be successful. The ideology tied to juche has created a high degree of distrust, even within families. More so than what we saw in the former communist eastern Europe.

While information won't deter provocative acts like cyber attacks, the decreased confidence it creates between the government and its people may prevent KJU from launching a full scale war, where the people in the north could welcome the south. On the other hand it could trigger a full out war, because it could be perceived as an existential threat.

But what if we see a North Korean Arab Spring like event? How do you think the U.S., ROK, PRC, and other countries would respond? I suspect much like the Arab Spring we would cheer it on, but provide no support due to the high level of uncertainty. It is a tragic situation, maybe one global citizens will impact more than states.

If non violent civil resistance is not a likely outcome.

Would North Korea's increasing permeability to information/truth make it far more likely to transition to something akin to late term Saddam Era Iraq?

Resilient Totalitarianism with Truth accessibility?

Heavily sanctioned with degrading quality of life and standard of living for the masses, but propped up by nuclear blackmail and oil for food corruption respectively?

Would North Korea be a prime candidate for a realpolitik negotiated transition of power and immunity from prosecution for core leadership?

Or would a possibly likely outcome for potential success for North Korea look more like a planned and coordinated rise of a North Korean Deng Xioaping?

If NK does try to copy Deng, could it have missed the boat waiting so long changing course and now sailing INTO the winds of unskilled labour being increasingly and globally automated combined with fast increasing global recession risk?

[Bill Moore]

As I understand it(rightly or wrongly), the Catholic Church under Polish Pope John Paul II had a partnership or at least closely aligned interests with Reagan Administration led NATO during the 80's with Poland/Solidarity being one of the key points of focus.

As I understand it, there are private groups in South Korea that may be acting unilaterally with efforts of quite questionable effectiveness like balloon flights laden with western media.

On the surface it seems similar, but I suspect a key difference is that private non kinetic efforts against the Warsaw Pact were aligned(or not contrary to) with government policy, while private efforts against North Korea may be an embarrassing disconnect with South Korean/allied strategic and diplomatic policy.

As indicated here:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/01/we-hacked-north-korea-with-balloons-and-usb-drives/283106/

Is that a crucial and key difference?

Could the behaviour of some key partners/allies(US, Japan perhaps) be akin to perpetually refinancing the "North Korean mortgage" and pushing out the "balloon payments" when NK falls?

That was an informative article in The Atlantic, thanks for sharing the link. I'm hypothesizing of course, but I do think private groups so far are less effective than governments in waging information shaping. However, combined efforts working towards similar goals can be quite powerful. I'm not sure the private groups are ineffective though, they certainly prompted KJU regime to respond.

As for


If non violent civil resistance is not a likely outcome.

Would North Korea's increasing permeability to information/truth make it far more likely to transition to something akin to late term Saddam Era Iraq?

Resilient Totalitarianism with Truth accessibility?

Heavily sanctioned with degrading quality of life and standard of living for the masses, but propped up by nuclear blackmail and oil for food corruption respectively?

Would North Korea be a prime candidate for a realpolitik negotiated transition of power and immunity from prosecution for core leadership?

Or would a possibly likely outcome for potential success for North Korea look more like a planned and coordinated rise of a North Korean Deng Xioaping?

If NK does try to copy Deng, could it have missed the boat waiting so long changing course and now sailing INTO the winds of unskilled labour being increasingly and globally automated combined with fast increasing global recession risk?

Who knows? I think this quote from for SEC Gates is relevant (it is also a topic that Kissinger discussed in his book "World Order"):

http://myemail.constantcontact.com/The-U-S--Has-No-Global-Strategy--Interview-with-Robert-Gates-.html?soid=1114009586911&aid=O9-ltc5cBTM


"The administration got caught up in the Arab Spring. They misread it pretty badly. There were no institutions to support the kind of reform efforts that the street demonstrators were calling for in the overthrow of these authoritarian governments." Worse, it sent a message to friendly regimes facing potential instability: "If you have demonstrations in your capital, the U.S. will throw you under the bus. So it disconcerted the Saudis and all our Arab allies."

The highlights are mine. I think we still have this End of History view that democracy and free markets will magically emerge if dictators are suddenly removed. A view that hundreds of years of history disputes. If KJU is removed through force of a peaceful revolution, then what? What type of follow on government is the realm of the possible? What would China allow? What would the ROKs try to impose? Maybe a year or a little longer, the magazine, The American Interest, published an article or opinion piece that argued instead of trying to impose democracy, we should take a longer term view and approach and set the conditions for democracy. What does that entail? Is that even possible in North Korea?

[SWJ Blog]

Missing the Big Picture, US Policy on North Korea Could Bring Disaster (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/missing-the-big-picture-us-policy-on-north-korea-could-bring-disaster)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AdamG]

SEOUL — North Korea claimed Sunday that it could wipe out Manhattan by sending a hydrogen bomb on a ballistic missile to the heart of New York, the latest in a string of brazen threats.

Although there are many reasons to believe that Kim Jong Un’s regime is exaggerating its technical capabilities, the near-daily drumbeat of boasts and warnings from Pyongyang underlines the regime’s anger at efforts to thwart its ambitions.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korea-claims-it-could-wipe-out-manhattan-with-a-hydrogen-bomb/ar-AAgIXYy

Golly, how will they deliver it? (http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/images/nkir27.jpg|||)

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-b2.htm

[Bill Moore]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korea-claims-it-could-wipe-out-manhattan-with-a-hydrogen-bomb/ar-AAgIXYy

Golly, how will they deliver it? (http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/images/nkir27.jpg|||)

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-b2.htm

It seems that the defense community is almost solely focused on whether or not North Korea can miniaturized their nuclear weapons enough to mount them on a long range missile. North Korea claims they have, but I'm hesitant to give any credence to North Korea's claims, yet at the same time the claim could be correct.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35760797

North Korea 'has miniature nuclear warhead', says Kim Jong-un


State media published images showing the North's leader standing next to what it said was a miniaturised weapon.

The claim is impossible to verify from the images alone and experts have long cast doubt on such assertions.

Even if North Korea has not yet mastered the technology to miniaturize a nuclear weapon sufficiently to mount it on a missile, that doesn't mean they cannot deliver a nuclear weapon to the U.S.. During the Cold War we had backpack nukes, which would do a hell of a lot of damage, even if the amount of damage fell well short of a large nuclear weapon. I doubt North Korea has it, but regardless it indicates there are other ways to deliver a weapon. For example, even a large, crude nuclear weapon could theoretically be transported concealed in a ship and set off in a port of a large city.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/russia/suitcase/comments.html


Do "backpack" nuclear weapons exist?

Yes, small atomic charges exist. They are very small. Several dozen kilos, thirty kilos, forty kilos. I spoke with people that made them, I saw them. The American specimens can be seen on the Internet, they can be seen on photographs, they can even be seen in the movies. I have never seen Russian analogies, I have only seen American ones, but Russian ones do exist, because I spoke with people who made them, and I believe these people, these people knew what they were talking about.

How powerful are they?

Their power is about one kiloton, possibly less, but a powerful charge. You cannot destroy Moscow or London, but the Kremlin, you can destroy ... Capitol Hill can be wiped out by such a bomb. ...

http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/consequences-one-nuclear-bomb-smuggled-port-container

The consequences of one nuclear bomb smuggled into a port in a container


A RAND study says that a 10-kiloton nuclear explosion at the Port of Long Beach could kill 60,000 people instantly, expose 150,000 more to hazardous radiation, and cause ten times more economic loss than the 9/11 terrorist attacks

A RAND Corporation study concluded that a nuclear explosion at the Port of Long Beach, California, could kill 60,000 people instantly, expose 150,000 more to hazardous radiation, and cause ten times more economic loss than the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Santa Monica, California-based think-tank’s study examines the human casualties and infrastructure effects of terrorists detonating a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb in a shipping container after being unloaded onto a pier in Long Beach, which shares a waterway with the Port of Los Angeles.

[SWJ Blog]

U.S. Military Readiness Questioned Amid Korea Tensions (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/us-military-readiness-questioned-amid-korea-tensions)

Entry Excerpt:



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[AdamG]

(CNN) — North Korea has fired what is believed to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile off the east coast of the Korean peninsula, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said Saturday.

The missile was fired at 6:30 p.m. local time (5:30 a.m. ET), South Korean officials said, and appears to have flown for about 30 km (about 19 miles) -- well short of the 300 km (roughly 186 miles) that would be considered a successful test.

One U.S. official said Saturday the launch "was provocative but not a threat to the U.S. and the missile was fired away from South Korea and Japan." But another U.S. official noted that after previous launch attempts by Pyongyang that didn't appear to be successful, this one seems to have gone much better.

"North Korea's sub launch capability has gone from a joke to something very serious," this official said. "The U.S. is watching this very closely."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/23/asia/north-korea-launches-missile-from-submarine/index.html?sr=fb042316northkorealaunchesmissilefro msubmarine751aStoryLink

For perspective, from just about a year ago..


Photographs showing Kim Jong-un proudly watching as a North Korean missile was launched from an underwater submarine were manipulated by state propagandists, experts claimed on Tuesday.

German aerospace experts said photos of the launch were "strongly modified", including reflections of the missile exhaust flame in the water which did not line up with the missile itself.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11617219/North-Korea-photoshopped-Kim-Jong-un-submarine-missile-pictures.html

[AdamG]

The consequences of one nuclear bomb smuggled into a port in a container


The NorKs keep threatening to hit the mainland USA. You don't need a long range missile for that, if you can move the firing platform right up to the target's front stoop.

See http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-b5.htm

See also http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/missile.htm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/images/nkir27.jpg


See also http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.3/pub_detail.asp
http://www.strategycenter.net/imgLib/200409201_launchb02.jpg


Just park your cargo ship in with all the others off NOLA (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vv37r0sY9ps/UzCg23xcb7I/AAAAAAAABEY/9ckWXzvSwQ0/s1600/SkyTruth-oilspill-shipchannel-24mar2014-overview.jpg), set your fire control system to Remote and look at what you can range.

http://www.mvd.usace.army.mil/portals/52/siteimages/MVD_districts.jpg

[Bill Moore]

I think we get overly focused on missile capabilities due to our tendency to apply mirror analysis and assume our adversaries seek to fight the way we do. Even after the non-traditional attack on our homeland on 9/11 the military-industrial complex as shown little real progress in addressing increasingly dangerous non-conventional threats.

However, that doesn't mean we should ignore missile technology, it may or may not be a red herring in this case, but it still bears watching as these two articles point out. At the end of the day, our adversaries have nuclear weapons, and they can be utilized in various ways to achieve their ends to include with and without missiles.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/24/r-james-woolsey-peter-vincent-pry-obama-wrong-on-n/?page=1

The miniaturization myth


The public is being misled by the White House, some so-called “experts” and mainstream media casting doubt on whether the Great Leader’s threat is real. They claim North Korea has not demonstrated sufficient “miniaturization” of a nuclear weapon to be delivered by a missile.


Technologically, “miniaturizing” a nuclear warhead is much easier than developing an atomic bomb or a multi-stage missile for orbiting satellites — as North Korea has already done.


On February 7, North Korea orbited a second satellite, the KSM-4, to join their KSM-3 satellite launched in December 2012.

Both satellites now are in south polar orbits, evading many U.S. missile defense radars and flying over the United States from the south, where our defenses are limited. Both satellites — if nuclear armed — could make an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack that could blackout the U.S. electric grid for months or years, thereby killing millions.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/3/peter-vincent-pry-hyper-proliferation-in-north-kor/?page=all

Hyper-proliferation in North Korea
Help from China and Russia makes the situation all the more dangerous

After laying out how the author believes China and Russia are helping North Korea with their nuclear program, he ends with


Some of the implications of hyper-proliferation are that Russia and China are part of the problem, not part of the solution; that hyper-proliferation by these actors is a weapon in the New Cold War; and that we should
reassess the nuclear missile threat from other nations of concern — including Pakistan and Iran.

Peter Vincent Pry is executive director of the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security and served in the Congressional EMP Commission, the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, the House Armed Services Committee and the CIA.

[AdamG]

Best Korea must need more free USGovernment cheese.


SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea said on Wednesday it had conducted a ballistic missile test that simulated pre-emptive strikes against South Korean ports and airfields used by the U.S. military, a likely reference to the launches of three missiles on Tuesday.

*

Lee Chun-geun, a scientist at South Korea's Science and Technology Policy Institute, said that the North Korean missiles were believed to be carrying warheads, which contain trigger devices but not plutonium or uranium, to see whether those warheads could detonate properly.

The launches were the latest in a series of weapons tests North Korea has carried out since Kim in March ordered tests of a nuclear warhead explosion and ballistic missiles capable of carrying such warheads.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/north-korea-says-it-tested-pre-emptive-strikes-u-s-n613016

[AdamG]

I think we get overly focused on missile capabilities due to our tendency to apply mirror analysis and assume our adversaries seek to fight the way we do. Even after the non-traditional attack on our homeland on 9/11 the military-industrial complex as shown little real progress in addressing increasingly dangerous non-conventional threats.

However, that doesn't mean we should ignore missile technology, it may or may not be a red herring in this case, but it still bears watching as these two articles point out. At the end of the day, our adversaries have nuclear weapons, and they can be utilized in various ways to achieve their ends to include with and without missiles.

Nothing was said about *just* a missile attack. Depending on who is involved and what their perceived victory conditions are, an attack might involve 1) missile(s) + 2) hacking +3) terror attacks on select targets + 4) infrastructure attacks (see California power grid) and whatever chaos is caused from that equation might be more about hamstringing a US response to a changing situation somewhere else on this globe.

[AdamG]

Gosh. How did we miss the Mu Du Bong mystery?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cPhwfXohDA

See also
http://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/ship-09162015140502.html


Then, for nine straight days, from July 1-9, the Mu Du Bong stopped signaling on AIS, and disappeared from the commercial shipping grid. It’s possible the ship was simply sitting quietly at anchor. But there are echoes here not only of the Chong Chon Gang, but of a number of other North Korean-flagged freighters which over the years have followed this pattern of dropping off the grid in the vicinity of Cuba. In congressional testimony last September, illicit-trafficking expert Hugh Griffiths, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, described this practice as “a common risk indicator of maritime trafficking.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/claudiarosett/2014/07/13/north-korean-ship-tests-the-waters-near-americas-shores/#2097b55c492a


Current location

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:675337/mmsi:445131000/imo:8328197/vessel:MU_DU_BONG

[AdamG]

North Korea has launched two ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan, one of which exploded immediately after launch, according to the US. The move has been condemned by the country’s southern neighbor, as well as Japan and Washington.

The projectile that was launched at about 7:50am local time (around midnight GMT), and, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, flew for about 1,000 km (620 miles) before landing in Japan's economic exclusion zone. US Strategic Command said it had also detected a second launch which resulted in failure.

https://www.rt.com/news/354410-korea-launches-ballistic-missile/#.V6E1qCxt2N8.reddit

[AdamG]

SEOUL, Aug. 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Saturday accused the United States of seeking to invade the communist state in the near future, and threatened to launch a nuclear strike against the U.S. at any sign of such a move.

*


The commentary came three days after Washington said it has deployed three B-2 stealth bombers to Guam in response to repeated and heightened provocations from the communist North that included recent missile launches.

Pyongyang, however, claimed the deployment of nuclear capable U.S. bombers only showed U.S. intention to invade the North.


http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/08/13/85/0301000000AEN20160813004500320F.html

[AdamG]

North Korea has fired a ballistic missile from a submarine off its east coast, say the US and South Korea.

The KN-11 missile was launched from waters near Sinpo and flew about 500km (300 miles) before falling into the Sea of Japan, a US official said.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile fell inside Japan's Air Defence Identification Zone.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37171608?SThisFB

[AdamG]

North Korea says it has successfully carried out its fifth nuclear test, in continued defiance of UN resolutions.
A 5.3 magnitude tremor had earlier been detected near its nuclear test site.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37314927

[AdamG]

The BBC's Korea correspondent Steve Evans says the South is using the same bloodcurdling rhetoric that the North frequently uses about the South Korean government in Seoul.
He says there has been rising criticism within South Korea of the government as its attempts to isolate the North have failed to deter leader Kim Jong-un's nuclear ambitions.
News of South Korea's attack plan for the North is believed to have been revealed to parliament following Friday's nuclear test.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37331852

[AdamG]

From October 8th


SEOUL — North Korea conducted its first nuclear test exactly 10 years ago Sunday, exploding a crude atomic bomb and crossing what had long been considered a “red line.”
A decade of condemnation, sanctions and ostracism later, the regime in Pyongyang has not pulled back. Far from it.
Today, the country has a demonstrated nuclear weapons program, has made clear progress with missiles and is widely assumed to be able to put the two together. The only real question now is whether North Korea can deliver a nuclear-tipped missile to a target, and that is not much of a question. If it cannot yet, it will soon, analysts say.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-is-racing-towards-the-nuclear-finish-line/2016/10/07/c4288d30-84c5-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html

[SWJ Blog]

The Americans Who Chose To Live in North Korea, Defected to North Korea Documentary (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-americans-who-chose-to-live-in-north-korea-defected-to-north-korea-documentary)

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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[AdamG]

The former top American commander in South Korea on Thursday said the Trump administration must be ready to launch a pre-emptive strike on North Korea before it tests a long-range missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.

http://www.defensetech.org/2016/12/01/pre-emptive-strike-north-korea/

[Azor]

http://www.defensetech.org/2016/12/01/pre-emptive-strike-north-korea/

When these sorts of ideas are entertained by CSIS panelists, you can be assured that this is no joke.

Perhaps this is a message to Beijing that it needs to come to Jesus?