US & Russian sponsored paramilitaries since 1991

[AmericanPride]

Hello all,

For one of my research projects, I am using quantitative analysis to examine and compare the effects of US and Russian sponsored paramilitaries on conflict outcomes since 1991. My definition of paramilitary includes two typologies: status and type. Status is whether the organization is official or unofficial, and type is whether the organization is political, law enforcement, etc. The conflict outcomes are favorable, mixed, and unfavorable for both the sponsor (US or Russia) and the paramilitary organization.

Is there any works anyone would recommend to add to my reading list?

I also recall a widely circulated RAND study on counterinsurgency outcomes. Is that available anywhere?

FYI, this project is for school.

[RedRaven]

Are you referring to the:

"Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency"
and/or
"Counterinsurgency Scorecard"

I'd love to see how you are quantifying these.

[AmericanPride]

Hi Red,

Thanks for the titles.

I'm still early in the development phase of this project. Broadly, there will be a comparison between US and Russian sponsored paramilities to see if there's a difference in application and measurable difference in outcome. This will be more closely scrutinized by filtering through the typologies to see if there's a substantive difference in their behavior and performance by status, type, or sponsor.

On top of the typologies I identified earlier, I would like to develop 10 - 15 operational activities that influence conflict outcomes. And where possible, I will also be looking at the extent of political, technical, financial, or material aid/support provided.

I selected 1991 because of the transition from the USSR to Russia, although my concern is that there may not be sufficient data points. But we'll see.

[pjb]

I'd also be interested to see how you're going to quantify and classify paramilitaries. Are you going to control for operational region? (Paramilitaries may more similar based on constraints and culture of region than based on who was sponsoring them.)

I wrote a quant research paper on internal security forces (police + paramilitaries), my focus was different, but I found the best consistent data on paramilitaries in the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ annual Military Balance publications. The MB doesn't list foreign sponsorship of paramilitaries, so you'd probably have to do the legwork on that yourself.

(If you want to see what I did, my paper is here: http://thesimonscenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/IAS-002-APR13.pdf)

[AmericanPride]

Hi PJB,

Thanks for the references.

First, I'm going to classify paramilitaries by status: official, official-covert, official-clandestine, and unofficial. Then I am going to classify them by type: law enforcement, special operations, political, militia, non-military security, and criminal. I want to capture the broadest range possible of paramilitary forces while excluding terrorist organizations and regular police forces.

I have to devise a method to quantify sponsorship other than material and financial aid (i.e. political support). I also have to devise a number of operational activities to form the basis of the dataset measuring the influence on conflict outcomes.

[Venenum]

SSI's Max Boot is one of the most authoritative sources. He has written a book called "Invisible Armies" which includes a database.

[RedRaven]

Link to the aforementioned database (at least a cool visualization of the data in the database):

http://www.cfr.org/wars-and-warfare/invisible-armies-insurgency-tracker/p29917

[AmericanPride]

Ven and Red,

Thanks for the resources. One of the questions I want to answer is how the US and Russia leverage these organizations in national security policy (and relatedly, if there's a political feedback loop back to Capitol Hill). I want to avoid the monolithic trap of realism in explaining state behavior, so that is another gap to be filled. There's the well documented friction between DoD and CIA during Rumsfeld's tenure. Is that kind of bureaucratic infighting present here too? Did it influence effectiveness?

[davidbfpo]

American Pride,

It maybe worth looking - for the Russian aspect - on the threads: Early Soviet COIN Experience in Central Asia @ Early Soviet COIN Experience in Central Asia Then The North Caucasus: Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia @ http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=1271 Finally there maybe help in the two threads on Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary and the Military Commentary.

Do you include the Soviet practice in Afghanistan of purchasing the loyalty of the warlords? See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=9483

[AmericanPride]

David,
Thanks for the recommendations. The Soviet-backed Afghan warlords would fall under unofficial militia (not a formal government agency and organization is an armed group without a coherent political agenda or established political apparatus). But as far as my timeline, I'm looking to start with the birth of the Russian Federation. There are a number of organizations in the Caucasus of course and possibly more in the Tajik and Uzbek conflicts of the 1990s (I'm not familiar with those conflicts so that requires examination). Not to mention Russia's various official security organs (OMON, MVD troops, etc). My next step will be to work through identifying operational activities to build a quantitative tool to measure their influence on conflict outcomes (i.e. did the group participate in human rights violations?).

[AmericanPride]

So... this is my progress thus far. Feedback is welcome. I think more political factors questions are needed so I'll have to think on that portion some more.

DEFINITIONS
STATUS DEFINITIONS

Official: the organization is a legitimate and recognized branch or agency of a government and its actions are acknowledged by the government

Official-covert: the organization is a legitimate and recognized branch or agency of a government but its actions are not acknowledged

Official-clandestine: the organization is a legitimate branch or agency of a government but its relationship to the government and its actions are not acknowledged

Unofficial: the organization is not a legitimate branch or agency of a government

TYPE DEFINITIONS

Special operations: the organization primarily conducts special operations activities such as raids, long range reconnaissance, and direct action (e.g. Special Activities Division)

Political: the organization is the armed wing of a political movement or party or is a militarized political movement (e.g. Taliban)

Militia: the organization is an armed group without a coherent political agenda or established political apparatus (e.g. Texas State Guard)

Criminal: the organization is the armed wing of a criminal organization or is a militarized criminal organization (e.g. Los Zetas)

Law Enforcement: the organization primarily conducts law enforcement activities such as hostage rescue and counter-narcotics (e.g.FBI Hostage Rescue Team)

Non-military Security: the organization primarily conducts security activities such as riot control, disaster response, or internal security (e.g. Interior Ministry Troops of Russia)

DEMOGRAPHIC QUESTIONS

1. What is the status of the organization (official, official-covert, official-clandestine, or unofficial)?

2. What is the organization’s type (special operations, political, militia, criminal, law enforcement, or non-military security)?

3. What is the organization’s parent agency or group?

4. What is the organization’s region of origin?

5. What is the organization’s region(s) of operation?

6. When was the organization established?

7. If no longer active, when was the organization disbanded?

8. How much material aid is provided to the organization from foreign sponsorship? (This will be scaled based upon range of findings)

9. How much financial aid is provided to the organization from foreign sponsorship? (This will be scaled based upon range of findings)

10. How much political aid is provided to the organization from foreign sponsorship? (This will be scaled based upon range of findings)

11. Is the organization’s budget funded by official or unofficial sources?

12. What is the manpower strength of the organization? (This will be scaled based upon range of findings)

13. In which conflicts has the organization participated?

CONTENT QUESTIONS
1. OPERATIONAL FACTORS

Does the organization participate in:

a. human rights violations?

b. for profit criminal activity?

c. kidnapping, abduction, or extraordinary rendition?

d. targeted killings?

e. Armed attacks on civilians or protected populations and sites?

f. armed attacks on government or government personnel?

g. armed attacks on violent non-state actors?

h. bribery or extortion?

i. violations of international norms of diplomacy?

j. information operations, propaganda, or psychological operations?

k. Illegitimate or disproportionate use of force?

l. Constructive engagement with the local community in its area of operation?

m. Constructive engagement with the national or local government in its area of operation?

n. The provision of basic services in areas under its control?

2. POLITICAL FACTORS

Is the organization:

a. An internationally recognized and legitimate belligerent?

b. Active in the political landscape of the conflict?

c. Active in the social landscape of the conflict?

d. Active in the economic landscape of the conflict?

e. Locally, nationally, or internationally engaged through media outlets?

f. Active or represented within the policy-making community of its state sponsor?

g. Active or represented within the general population of its state sponsor?

h. The recipient of positive political or media coverage?

i. The recipient of negative political or media coverage?

[RedRaven]

Howdy,

How is this going? This reply is late... so probably not so useful, however the one thing I would comment on is the "Type" Definitions. It looks like there are actually two separate groups in here: 1) what the group does 2) What larger organization it is a part of. Maybe these two could be separated?


TYPE DEFINITIONS

Special operations: the organization primarily conducts special operations activities such as raids, long range reconnaissance, and direct action (e.g. Special Activities Division) <-- "conducts"

Political: the organization is the armed wing of a political movement or party or is a militarized political movement (e.g. Taliban) <-- "is part of"

Militia: the organization is an armed group without a coherent political agenda or established political apparatus (e.g. Texas State Guard) <-- "is part of"

Criminal: the organization is the armed wing of a criminal organization or is a militarized criminal organization (e.g. Los Zetas) <-- "is part of"

Law Enforcement: the organization primarily conducts law enforcement activities such as hostage rescue and counter-narcotics (e.g.FBI Hostage Rescue Team) <-- "conducts"

Non-military Security: the organization primarily conducts security activities such as riot control, disaster response, or internal security (e.g. Interior Ministry Troops of Russia) <-- "conducts"

[AmericanPride]

Hi Red,

The research instrument was successful for the class, although the dataset remained incomplete and I had to scale back the scope based on the timeline for the course. But it's something I'm (slowly) developing as I inch closer towards my dissertation phase. I haven't narrowed a thesis down yet but this is in the running (the other is a quantitative analysis of military capabilities and conflict outcomes focused on the U.S. and Russia).

[davidbfpo]

Thanks for the update. I often wonder how effective RFI pleas are.