View Full Version : Global Scenarios

10-18-2013, 03:48 PM
This has been around since 2007, don't recall seeing it here -

Future paths

Scenarios address the question: What kind of future could emerge from the turbulent changes shaping our world? Trends and policies move us in certain directions, but fundamental choices, ours to make, reveal strikingly different paths.

The Global Scenario Group, precursor to GTI, introduced a simple "taxonomy of the future" to organize the complex junctures and possibilities for the future. At the highest level, three broad channels Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions radiate from the present into the imagined future. These are worlds of gradual evolution, precipitous decline, and transformative progression. Of course, these broad categories include numerous scenario variants. Here, we consider two variants for each, or a total of six global scenarios.


10-18-2013, 04:22 PM
Adam G,

We have briefly discussed Global Trends, a US NIC published document. See: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=17172

In a few other places 'trends' finds many hits, from piracy to water. IIRC there is a long thread similar to the coming revolution in the USA.

Imagining the future has some value, but it is imagination.:wry:

05-13-2014, 11:10 PM
I'd say corruption and failing infrastructure is a bigger threat to water supplies, but far be it for me to contradict the Current Narrative of 'settled science'.

Vital and appreciated as that water is, it will be even more precious to those who will follow you.

By the end of this century, billions are likely to be gripped by water stress and the stuff of life could be an unseen driver of conflict.

So say hydrologists who forecast that on present trends, freshwater faces a double crunch -- from a population explosion, which will drive up demand for food and energy, and the impact of climate change.

"Approximately 80 percent of the world's population already suffers serious threats to its water security, as measured by indicators including water availability, water demand and pollution," the Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in a landmark report in March.

"Climate change can alter the availability of water and therefore threaten water security."