Nigeria 2013-2017

[SWJ Blog]

How to Deal with Nigeria's Boko Haram: A Primer (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/how-to-deal-with-nigerias-boko-haram-a-primer)

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[KingJaja]

Moderator Adds

Post edited down for use on this new thread, it originally appeared on the AFRICOM stands up thread. There are several posts there which give some background:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=6167&page=18

Today, 6th December 2013, this thread 'Nigeria's future: where to start?' was renamed 'Nigeria: watching and debating its future' and becomes the current thread. The older, longer thread ' ' has now been closed, with a final post explaining why.(ends).

I'm Nigerian, I live in Nigeria - and even if you casually dismiss history with a wave of a hand, I wont. I've seen 15,000 dead since 1999, a clash of civilizations with Sharia in the North and Evangelical Christianity rising in the South.

Who could have dreamed up such a time bomb - the British, who had no interest in understanding the situation on the ground, just grabbing resources for the home counties.

These things will be settled, with much blood & zero input from the West - we saw it Yugoslavia. That is Nigeria's trajectory. We could have a discussion on that.

[davidbfpo]

Kingjaja,

The break-up of Yugoslavia pre-dates SWJ, it does sometimes appear in posts and there is at least one SWJ article:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/%E2%80%9Cin-the-service-of-humanity-and-civilization%E2%80%9D-the-austro-hungarian-occupation-of-bosnia-and

Europe, particularly Western Europe, would prefer not to remember what happened and much political plus effort has been expended to make amends. As last week proved in Kosovo local tensions can lead to skirmishing:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24798397

The Balkans have a long history, largely out of sight when part of the Ottoman / Turkish Empire; where religion, tribe, community and more intersect in close proximity. Partnership did happen - in peace and war - and Sarajevo (Bosnia-Herzegovina's main city and provincial capital) was noted for the extent of inter-marriage.

It took several days of violence and barbarity - my reading blames the Serbian extremists - to force everyone to "take a side" and so fracture communal partnership.

Today there is a sort of peace in Bosnia and the former Yugoslavia, with each nation-state joining or aspiring to EU status (Slovenia, the smallest, most homogeneous and with the most peaceful escape joined the EU sometime ago).

Is Nigeria on the same trajectory? I don't know, but the Bosnian experience provides some clear warnings.

[davidbfpo]

Kingjaja suggested a discussion, so a new thread appears. Nigeria's size alone makes it important, let alone its complexity and wealth. Maybe first for Africa, then the rest of the world.

This will appear first until two posts from the AFRICOM thread where Kingjaja made his suggestion will appear, are moved.

Now let the discussion begin.

Incidentally I don't envisage external intervention in a future Nigeria, on the scale seen in former Yugoslavia.

[KingJaja]

davidbfpo,

Sadly, Nigeria is on the same trajectory.

Most foreign analysts concentrate on Boko Haram or the Niger Delta crisis, because they fit easy categories (War on terror & Energy security).

Having said that, Nigeria's most deadly fault-lines are in the Middle Belt - where the former Sokoto Caliphate & Kanem-Bornu Empire meet Christianised ethnic groups.

Nowhere is this more visible than in the Middle Belt's most important cities - Kaduna & Jos. In Kaduna, a river separates the Christian part of the city from the Muslim part. When I traveled to Kaduna, I was advised to land at a Abuja & travel to Kaduna from the South (since I was a Christian). Muslims are advised to land at Kaduna airport & pass through Muslim populated parts of the city.

Sharia law is implemented some states in that part of Nigeria & while "multi-culturally educated Western intellectuals" can advance sophisticated arguments in favour of Shari'a law - Nigerian Evangelicals will not.

And the average poorly educated conservative Nigerian Muslim doesn't see the need for sophistication either. So people fight & kill.

The anti-Shari'a riots tore Kaduna apart. Since 1999 about 15,000 people have died in inter-communal clashes (ethnic animosities tinged with religion). One can see clear fault lines there.

This thing isn't going to stop. Nobody is going to stop the Saudis from sending Wahabbi preachers or sponsoring religious students. Nobody is going stop American TV evangelists. The nation is bifurcating there.

And that is only one fault line.

So Nigeria's future is like Yugoslavia - only worse, we are a lot poorer, a lot more violent and there are more of us.

[KingJaja]

80% of Nigeria's govt spending is from oil money - that is why the Niger Delta militancy is a very serious problem.

But even with that, it is estimated that about 150,000 bpd is stolen from the Niger Delta. So in essence we are going to witness the growth of South American style cartels in the Niger Delta, challenging the Nigerian state's monopoly of violence.

You have an army taxed with maintaining internal security in opposite parts of Nigeria (North and South) - & there are already reports of grumbling among the rank and file.

But there are global headwinds that are not in our favour. Shale oil means that Nigeria will lose a very important customer, the United States. Crude could fall to $80 a barrel next decade.

In the long term, crude reserves will be depleted - so what will bind Nigeria's people? Will the Niger Delta be willing to subsidise the existence of the rest of Nigeria? I doubt it.

[Bill Moore]

KingJaja,


So Nigeria's future is like Yugoslavia - only worse, we are a lot poorer, a lot more violent and there are more of us.

I question two of your assertions here, first the level of violence in Yugoslavia was on par with anything seen in Africa, and poverty in Eastern Europe was shockingly deep outside the cities. I am showing by bias because I didn't think European countries would ever be like that. The one thing that is non-disputable is you have many more people.

I have heard claims of Nigeria's imminent fall for well over 15 years, and while I agree the trend line is troubling yet your country seems remarkably resilient to what would cause other countries to collapse. On the other hand if your predictions are correct then I agree the situation will be dire for a number of reasons. Since Nigeria is the heart of ECOWAS who will be willing to step up and lead a regional response to support Nigeria? The West is exhausted and broke after 10 plus years of failed nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it is unlikely they'll have the political will to intervene. Though Nigeria is more important strategically than the Sudan, I suspect Sudan will be the model of our response.

If your right and the fault lines give in Nigeria how will that impact the rest of the region? I can't see these conflicts being contained within your borders.

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,


I have heard claims of Nigeria's imminent fall for well over 15 years, and while I agree the trend line is troubling yet your country seems remarkably resilient to what would cause other countries to collapse. On the other hand if your predictions are correct then I agree the situation will be dire for a number of reasons. Since Nigeria is the heart of ECOWAS who will be willing to step up and lead a regional response to support Nigeria? The West is exhausted and broke after 10 plus years of failed nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it is unlikely they'll have the political will to intervene. Though Nigeria is more important strategically than the Sudan, I suspect Sudan will be the model of our response.

Things are progressively getting worse, state authority is eroding steadily. Government is losing monopoly of violence and respect.

It is much easier to reverse a sharp decline than to reverse a slow, steady decline over several decades - such a decline tends to be irreversible.

That is Nigeria's problem. The implosion will happen, not tomorrow, but it will happen.

[KingJaja]

Is there a limit to diversity? Look at this website, I'm a Christian from Southern Nigeria - we have organisations like this in Nigeria. Why am I part of the same nation as these people? Does this nation Nigeria, make any sense?

This is the link to the website: http://www.islamicmovement.org/

What exactly is a sense of national cohesion supposed to be built on? Can US influenced Evangelicals co-exist in peace with folks like this? No.

That, in a nutshell, is the problem with Nigeria. It is not a cohesive entity by any stretch of imagination. There's nothing binding these people together save a desire by the elite to share money made from crude oil sales.

Now all you folks are a lot smarter than I am - please someone should tell me how this "diversity" (coupled with very low literacy rates) will not lead to an ongoing "clash of civilizations"?

Nigeria is more complex than either Pakistan, Afghanistan or Syria - none of the aforementioned nations have several Evangelical churches that seat congregations of 14,000 and above.

This picture depicts an Evangelical auditorium at the opposite end of Nigeria (the South) that can accommodate one million worshipers

http://www.informationng.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/0IMG-20120813-00462.jpg

This congregation recorded over 60,000 babies born between August 10, 2011 & August 10, 2012 alone!!

It isn't the only Evangelical congregation in Nigeria, and it might not be the largest!!

Nigeria is like having Jerry Falwell & Ayatollah Khomeini in one nation. Also imagine that both men's influence in politics is steadily rising as the years go by.

Question: can even the United States of America manage that kind of diversity, talk less a much poorer & much more artificial Nigeria?

[Bill Moore]

http://www.islamicmovement.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=141&Itemid=161

Nigeria at 50: what next?

Translated from Hausa by Abdul Mumin Giwa


Where then is the problem, what is the trouble? Why refusing Islam when it allows you to practice your Christianity? Islam will not stop you from practicing your religion whether Christian or traditional. But it is not right for you to insist that you have right and that your right is that the majority keeps aside his own right. It is not the right of the minority for the majority to follow him.

There is an end to everything there is n end to the continued suppression of Islam. I know there will not be that round table decision on the way out for the country but definitely when the time comes Islam shall be established. We cannot possibly continue to stay like that whereas the Qur’an is there instructing us on what to do and we are believers in Islam. Whether you accept or not, Islam is on the rise and you cannot stop it. This is the reality and you cannot fight against reality. By the grace of God Almighty Islam is the destiny of this nation and this shall come to pass.

KingJaja

An excerpt from a speech found on the website you provided a link too. These are strong words, but they're just words. In the US we have left wings groups who want to establish a communist system, right wing groups who want to establish an Aryan Nation in the northwest, Islamists who want to establish Sharia law, etc., and if you read their websites you would think the world is falling, but the reality is none of these groups have the coercive power or power of attractive ideas to realize their visions. I agree the threat is more dangerous in your country, but I don't think the Christians and Animists will succumb to Islamic rule outside of the north. The potential for the bloodshed is definitely there, though it seems pretty high already to me.

I think you made a good point when you wrote,


It is much easier to reverse a sharp decline than to reverse a slow, steady decline over several decades - such a decline tends to be irreversible.

This seems true for all governments, it is hard to convince governments (especially democratic ones) to invest in the future or focus on prevention if the problem isn't perceived to be a pressing issue.

You wrote,


Now all you folks are a lot smarter than I am - please someone should tell me how this "diversity" (coupled with very low literacy rates) will not lead to an ongoing "clash of civilizations"?

I for one don't think any of us who live outside of Nigeria are as near as smart as you are on the nature of your problems. As for diversity the US is incredibly diverse and we make it work. It wasn't always that way, but has Bob Jones has pointed out in numerous post the civil rights movement and the subsequent civil rights bill was a defining moment in time for the US. There were extremists on both sides who used violence throughout, but our nation didn't allow it to be decisive. The majority had another vision and the will to pursue it politically. There will always be outsiders who continue to pursue their ends through violence such as the KKK, Black Panthers, Neo Nazis, but again they won't gain ground and the state still maintains dominance when it comes to coercive power to deal with these groups as criminals vice insurgents. What is possible in Nigeria? Are only the extremist voices heard? Are there leaders that can unify the people?

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,


An excerpt from a speech found on the website you provided a link too. These are strong words, but they're just words. In the US we have left wings groups who want to establish a communist system, right wing groups who want to establish an Aryan Nation in the northwest, Islamists who want to establish Sharia law, etc., and if you read their websites you would think the world is falling, but the reality is none of these groups have the coercive power or power of attractive ideas to realize their visions. I agree the threat is more dangerous in your country, but I don't think the Christians and Animists will succumb to Islamic rule outside of the north. The potential for the bloodshed is definitely there, though it seems pretty high already to me.

I don't think you understand Nigeria. These are not mere words. Religion has a role in politics in Nigeria that is unthinkable in the United States.

I need to remind you that thousands have been killed in religious riots in Northern Nigeria - and words like those trigger those riots.

Secondly, I don't think the United States of America is a diverse nation in the same way Nigeria is a diverse nation.

In the US, a group of Anglo-Saxon settlers laid the ground rules - separation of church and state, no kings, property rights, a common law system etc. Diversity in the US means getting people from different backgrounds to obey these ground rules, then accommodating minor differences.

True, the story of African Americans was sad, but there was a common understanding of what an ideal America should look like.

Diversity in Nigeria is an entirely different beast - there are no ground rules.

On fundamental issues like the nature of the Nigerian state, there are no ground rules - is Nigeria a secular state or not?

Very few people in Northern Nigeria accept that Nigeria is a secular nation.

In Northern Nigeria Shari'a law applies to criminal matters. If a Muslim converts to Christianity, he's treated like a criminal under the law.

Did the US ever have to deal with a religiously derived legal system competing with a secular legal system

Nigeria, like most African nations, is an artificial construct overlaying many ancient societies with thousand year old cultures and ground rules. Similarities can be found between cultures, but in many cases, the gulf is too wide to be bridged.

Americans don't like to hear this, but there is very little the US can teach Nigeria (or any African nation) about diversity.

US is a settler nation (like Australia) that resulted from the elimination of indigenous cultures and the imposition of a dominant settler culture.

Managing diversity in the US is about tinkering around the edges of the dominant settler culture to make allowances for new entrants. In Nigeria (& most of Africa) there is no dominant culture - so US style diversity WILL NOT work here.

[Bill Moore]

Hopefully this doesn't surprise you, but I agree with 90% or more of your response. I don't claim to understand Nigeria after only spending a few months there, but the situation did and does fascinate me. I wasn't offering the America way as the solution, simply presenting how our nation wrestled with deep ethnic divides and at least relieved enough tension to avoid what could have been a much bloodier civil conflict.


True, the story of African Americans was sad, but there was a common understanding of what an ideal America should look like.

You touched on a key point. We did have an idea of what being American was, it wasn't about skin color or gender, but it took us years to actualize the idea (at least get closer to it). That idealism is what enabled the Civil Rights Movement to be successful. If the idea of equality didn't exist it would have failed before it started, so like all things context matters.

I also think many Americans, myself included don't see it as a black and white issue, though that seems to dominate the media. To understand multicultural integration you also have to look at the Cubans, Hispanics, Russians, Italians, Chinese, Filipinos, Vietnamese, Irish, and a growing Muslim population among others. Yes it very different situation in Nigeria and Africa as a whole, but still worth studying.

You may be right that,
Managing diversity in the US is about tinkering around the edges of the dominant settler culture to make allowances for new entrants. That is a perspective I haven't heard before, but it makes sense.

I don't agree with you that the US is secular. You wrote,
Did the US ever have to deal with a religiously derived legal system competing with a secular legal system?

We have been dealing with this issue from the beginning and continue to do so today. Many Europeans are surprised at the level of influence religion has on our society. In general these are not violent contests, but arguments contested in court. What seems to be changing is the strength of the far left and their political correctness movement which is similar to Mao's Reformation minus the millions killed, who are attempting to dictate through law what people can say, read, and think. In turn this is spawning a revival of the far right, and unfortunately the middle is disappearing. This seems to be happening throughout much of the West, so we're seeing a growing divide between the far left and right now that could result in considerable violence if we lose touch with our core accepted values that define us. Again we're not Nigeria, but we're not immune to these problems.

Finding answers for Nigeria is the task of the Nigerian people. We need to focus more on solving our own problems. Of course the West and UN could intervene and attempt to impose a solution on Nigeria if eventually comes close to failing, but that is almost guaranteed to fail before it starts.

[ganulv]

US is a settler nation (like Australia) that resulted from the elimination of indigenous cultures and the imposition of a dominant settler culture.

Managing diversity in the US is about tinkering around the edges of the dominant settler culture to make allowances for new entrants. In Nigeria (& most of Africa) there is no dominant culture - so US style diversity WILL NOT work here.

That’s an interesting take, and it might be the way things work out. There has certainly been a growing backlash against it post-Obama, though.

This may seem flippant, but a friend of mine was trying to figure out what was going on with the costumes of the Miss Universe contestants this past weekend (http://ohnotheydidnt.livejournal.com/83038150.html). Several of the Western nations seemed to be using the event to demonstrate their commitment to their variation on diversity. (Some of the get-ups, including that of Miss USA, do just look kind of silly.) How does Miss Nigeria read to Nigerians?

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,


We have been dealing with this issue from the beginning and continue to do so today. Many Europeans are surprised at the level of influence religion has on our society. In general these are not violent contests, but arguments contested in court. What seems to be changing is the strength of the far left and their political correctness movement which is similar to Mao's Reformation minus the millions killed, who are attempting to dictate through law what people can say, read, and think. In turn this is spawning a revival of the far right, and unfortunately the middle is disappearing. This seems to be happening throughout much of the West, so we're seeing a growing divide between the far left and right now that could result in considerable violence if we lose touch with our core accepted values that define us. Again we're not Nigeria, but we're not immune to these problems.

Let me explain the Nigerian situation to you in a bit more detail.

A large part of Northern Nigeria is a remnant from the Kanem-Bornu Empire & the Sokoto Caliphate - two of the most prominent Islamic kingdoms in The Sudan.

The British made no attempt to separate religion from governance (although some aspects of Shari'a like amputation were forbidden). But try as they might, nobody could prevent the spread of (Evangelical) Christianity to those parts of Nigeria.

So in Northern Nigeria, you have a situation where there is state government funded religious police (Hisbah), the state discourages the construction of Churches & discourages the spread of Christianity - but promotes the spread of Islam; by building Mosques.

This is a recipe for a DISASTER - and this has no parallel in the United States or the Modern Western World.

Imagine the problems Britain is facing with its growing Islamic Minority (and calls for Shari'a law) - now imagine if Britain had to deal with Evangelical Christianity in addition to Fundamentalist Islam - & poverty & illiteracy?

[KingJaja]

ganulv,

Nigeria's Muslim community dislikes beauty contest. In fact, the bloodiest riot in response to a beauty contest happened in Nigeria in 2002.

About 200 people were killed during those riots. (Many Christians)

So even among the Christian population, beauty contests might leave a bitter taste.

Quite simply, very few people in Nigeria bother about beauty contests.

[KingJaja]

So Boko Haram has finally been designated as a "foreign terrorist organization" (after all the politics has been played in DC and Obama can no long sit on the fence on this issue).

But please, what does this mean in practice?

[KingJaja]

Interesting read - not the usual Western analyst's understanding of this issue:


A decade ago I visited a Nigerian community devastated by flooding. The US and
Nigerian governments built 400 free houses for them. When I went to the houses, I saw northern children wearing Osama bin Laden hats. What was shocking to me is that US diplomats are aware of the intense anti-American sentiments in northern Nigeria but somehow the US misrepresents this as being “local”.

http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA16/20131113/101479/HHRG-113-FA16-Wstate-OgebeE-20131113.pdf

[Bill Moore]

So Boko Haram has finally been designated as a "foreign terrorist organization" (after all the politics has been played in DC and Obama can no long sit on the fence on this issue).

But please, what does this mean in practice?

It depends on the group, I recall working in another country where Department of State was considering designating a group a FTO, and that particular FTO lobbied hard with State and Congressional members to avoid the designation because it hurt their substantial fund raising activities in the U.S.. Department of State finally designated them, and I have to assume it degraded that particular group. Will the world turn upside down for Boko Haram? Hardly, but like you said at least we are now mandated by law to take some action again them.

http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/123085.htm


Legal Ramifications of Designation

1. It is unlawful for a person in the United States or subject to the jurisdiction of the United States to knowingly provide "material support or resources" to a designated FTO. (The term "material support or resources" is defined in 18 U.S.C. § 2339A(b)(1) as " any property, tangible or intangible, or service, including currency or monetary instruments or financial securities, financial services, lodging, training, expert advice or assistance, safehouses, false documentation or identification, communications equipment, facilities, weapons, lethal substances, explosives, personnel (1 or more individuals who maybe or include oneself), and transportation, except medicine or religious materials.” 18 U.S.C. § 2339A(b)(2) provides that for these purposes “the term ‘training’ means instruction or teaching designed to impart a specific skill, as opposed to general knowledge.” 18 U.S.C. § 2339A(b)(3) further provides that for these purposes the term ‘expert advice or assistance’ means advice or assistance derived from scientific, technical or other specialized knowledge.’’

2. Representatives and members of a designated FTO, if they are aliens, are inadmissible to and, in certain circumstances, removable from the United States (see 8 U.S.C. §§ 1182 (a)(3)(B)(i)(IV)-(V), 1227 (a)(1)(A)).

3. Any U.S. financial institution that becomes aware that it has possession of or control over funds in which a designated FTO or its agent has an interest must retain possession of or control over the funds and report the funds to the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

[KingJaja]

Read this - now imagine the impact on Christian/Muslim relations.


(Reuters) - In the gloom of a hilltop cave in Nigeria where she was held captive, Hajja had a knife pressed to her throat by a man who gave her a choice - convert to Islam or die.

Two gunmen from Boko Haram had seized the Christian teenager in July as she picked corn near her village in the Gwoza hills, a remote part of northeastern Nigeria where a six-month-old government offensive is struggling to contain an insurgency by the al Qaeda-linked Islamist group.

In a new development, Boko Haram is abducting Christian women whom it converts to Islam on pain of death and then forces into "marriage" with fighters - a tactic that recalls Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army in the jungles of Uganda.

The three months Hajja spent as the slave of a 14-strong guerrilla unit, cooking and cleaning for them before she escaped, give a rare glimpse into how the Islamists have changed tack in the face of Nigerian military pressure.

"I can't sleep when I think of being there," the 19-year-old told Reuters, recounting forced mountain marches, rebel intelligence gathering - and watching her captors slit the throats of prisoners Hajja had helped lure into a trap.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/us-nigeria-security-islamists-insight-idUSBRE9AG04120131117

[KingJaja]

This is serious:


Suspected Boko Haram terrorists, Monday morning, attacked the Composite Group Air force Base and other places in Maiduguri, the Borno state capital.
The siege which started at about 3am shook the town as sporadic gunshots and other Rocket Propelled Grenade Launchers fire were heard, with ensuing airstrikes in Maiduguri and Jere metropolis till 8 am.
Sources said during the attacks on the Air force Base and other targets, including the Maiduguri International Airport, several people were killed as the terrorists, numbering over 300 planted explosives in targeted areas in the state capital.
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/12/scores-killed-boko-haram-attacks-air-force-base-maiduguri/#sthash.u5MU2HKG.dpuf

[Fuchs]

Europe follows the stupid pattern:

no nation-state -> war for nation-state -> wars with other nation-states -> cooperation with other nation-states -> most close cooperation with other nation-states -> kind of confederacy

Nigeria is stuck at "no nations state" (for the different groups)

A smart move might be a big leap forward to confederacy or federation.

[davidbfpo]

Paul Rogers has written a long commentary on Nigeria, within he says:
There is a strong argument that the movement's violent approach is alienating the public in the areas affected. But this itself makes a specific action early on 2 December 2013 very significant. A Boko Haram operation involving scores - possibly hundreds - of paramilitaries was launched close to the city of Maiduguri, the site of Boko Haram’s foundation and long a centre of support.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/al-qaida-nigeria-and-long-war

He then cites a UK newspaper report:
Boko Haram fighters] streamed towards Maiduguri city in the early hours of Monday in pick-up trucks and on motorcycles, before opening fire with rockets and small arms on a military base. After a five-hour battle, two helicopters, three under-repair fighter jets, vehicles, officers' housing, workshops and regimental buildings had been destroyed.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/10492759/Dozens-killed-by-Islamist-gunmen-in-Boko-Haram-attack-in-Nigeria.html

Rightly Paul notes:
A bigger problem for the government, though, was the very fact that the militants were able to overrun the base with every evidence of impunity.

Not that such attacks have not happened before in Nigeria and other, better known campaigns. After all (sigh, personal theme cometh ;) ) terrorism is armed propaganda.

[carl]

A few weeks ago King Jaja linked to a NYT article reporting that Boko Haram had been substantially suppressed in Maiduguri itself. This attack is reported to have come from outside the city. The attackers descended upon the place in light vehicles. If true, this type of attack is seems fairly typical for areas in or bordering the Sahara; guys pile into HiLuxs, drive some hundreds or dozens of miles and hit a place. They often don't do so well after the initial attack.

Could this be the case in Maiduguri? Boko Haram gets mostly ejected from the city; afterwards they can raid it but can't hold it.

[davidbfpo]

The full BBC headline is 'Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan sacks military chiefs' may come as a surprise to readers, but all is normal:
BBC Nigeria analyst Naziru Mikailu says Mr Jonathan's decision does not come as a complete surprise because there is a tradition in Nigeria of sacking military chiefs.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25759755

[davidbfpo]

I think the non-military response to Boko Haram has been mentioned, but this article provides an update. The quote is the title and sub-title:
Youth Vigilantes Stand Up to Boko Haram, but at a Cost

With Civilian Joint Task Force units having some success in suppressing Boko Haram attacks in urban areas, the Islamist militants have shifted their focus to rural civilians.

Link:http://thinkafricapress.com/nigeria/youth-vigilantes-stand-boko-haram-cost

[carl]

Boko Haram has decided mass murder of civilians is a legitimate tactic. War to the knife I guess. God pity Nigeria.

[JMA]

Boko Haram has decided mass murder of civilians is a legitimate tactic. War to the knife I guess. God pity Nigeria.

Its the African way of war Carl. Kill each others civilians while avoiding direct military to military action - unless you have overwhelming odds.

[jmm99]

or, is there a more generalized principle here:


Kill each others civilians while avoiding direct military to military action - unless you have overwhelming odds.

if, for a moment in considering this, we leave aside Carl's implicit caveat re: whether "mass murder of civilians [can ever be] a legitimate tactic."

The rest of the equation (..."avoiding direct military to military action - unless you have overwhelming odds.") seems the first rule of warfare - Nathan Bedford Forrest:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/07/NathanBedfordForrest.jpg/296px-NathanBedfordForrest.jpg

who actually said: "Ma'am, I got there first with the most men." (true scoop (http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=9907EFDE1238EE32A2575BC2A9639C946996D6CF); "git thar fustest with the mostest" was a NYT concoction). In either phraseology, we see Momentum (Mass times Velocity) as the key concept.

No doubt Forrest was one of the brightest bulbs in the Confederate marquee (Stonewall Jackson was another), but Forrest (like so many other bright bulbs) sometimes went to the dark side - e.g.,

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/11/Forrest_%26_Maples_listing.png/344px-Forrest_%26_Maples_listing.png

and then there was Fort Pillow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fort_Pillow) - which brings us back to the issues of massacres (whether murdering civilians or captured soldiers seems not an important distinction).

Most mass killings today are reported as "senseless slaughters of innocent civilians without purpose." Very few people today have actually studied massacres, with a dispassionate eye, and questioned whether those killings are indeed "senseless" and "without purpose" - and, indeed, looking objectively at whether those killings were effective (sometimes "yes", sometimes "no").

The principal researcher in this area over the last couple of decades has been Stathis Kalyvas. This post, Selective Violence By Kalyvas (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=151025&postcount=391), in the Rhodesian COIN thread, lists most of his online publications (9 at the time). Kalyvas is going to satisfy no one's political correctness; e.g., this snip from his 2009 book chapter (http://stathis.research.yale.edu/documents/Kalyvas_OCV.pdf) (p.20 pdf):


To begin with, had I relied on historical data, it is highly likely that I would have undercounted two key variables: the level of selective violence (which turns out to reach 50.48% of all homicides) and the level of insurgent violence (which accounts for 51.31% of the fatalities). The reason is that the historical record has preserved the more visible large indiscriminate massacres rather than the individualized targeted killings. Furthermore, it has also privileged [JMM: "emphasized"] the more visible (and politically more blameworthy) violence of the incumbents rather than the violence of the insurgents. Last, I would have been completely unable to distinguish between selective and indiscriminate violence or to disaggregate violence by time period.

and, in emphasizing that the all-important factor of control cannot be approached simplistically (p.21-22 pdf):


Such an example is contained in a recent paper by Humphreys and Weinstein (2006) that uses survey data from Sierra Leone to estimate a model of civilian abuse by armed groups. Having coded no variable for control, they rely on a substitute called “dominance,” which records the estimated size of a unit relative to the estimated total number of troops in the zone. This measure, however, is highly problematic as any student of insurgency and counterinsurgency would easily surmise: the ability of an armed group to control a particular locality is only partly a function of the raw numbers of combatants.

Control is a function of the distribution of these troops across an area with specific geographical features, combined with the number, commitment, and distribution of civilian supporters across the same area.[7]

7. This paper also fails to distinguish between selective and indiscriminate violence. Again, lack of appropriate coding is justified by a dubious argument whereby this distinction is “blurred” (Humphreys and Weinstein 2006, 444). The entire exercise is quite problematic as the type of abuse described in the paper is clearly of an indiscriminate nature, thus rendering its test of theories of selective violence pointless.

In short, when it comes to coding territorial control there is no easy alternative to either direct and careful data collection using all available sources, or prior coding by the insurgents or counterinsurgents themselves, when they do leave extensive archival material behind.

What Kalyvas' various studies (most outside Africa) prove is that, in many cases (just over 50% per above), the civilian killings are selective, which implicates a rational process which has some expectation of success in reducing the opponent's measure of control by selectively killing the opponent's civilian supporters in the key geographical area.

I suspect that, even in the area of "indiscriminate" killings, there is more rationality in the minds of the killers than the politically correct "historical" studies will admit. For example, Village A seems to the insurgent to support the incumbent, but the insurgent lacks specific intel as to which villagers are key incumbent supporters (thus, excluding for the moment, targeted killings by the insurgent). A rational (though more risky than targeted killing) plan is to kill all the villagers, or a randomly-selected percentage of them, etc.

In fact, one could find rationality even in events such as the Rwandan genocide. In those cases, Population Group A takes the place of Village A. Of course, in Rwanda, the genocide was kicked off by targeted killings of those people who seemed to the killers to be key opponents.

The Mongols were certainly a very well organized, strictly disciplined and rational military force; but also ruthlessly genocidal for solid, practical reasons. See, Passing the Mongol Wheel Test (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=149603&postcount=29); and the some 5K hits from Googling "mongol massacres"

John Gisogod's "Massacres" is no longer in original form online, but its text is still here (http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=135420661); and is attached below. His conclusions about why the Mongols did what they did seem valid to me:


When Genghis Khan attempts the conquest of the world (1209), the Mongol population numbers between 400 000 and 600 000 inhabitants, among which 200 000 are warriors. Together, all the countries targeted for conquest can muster a global population of more than 200 millions inhabitants (which is then 400 times the total number of inhabitants in Mongolia). The Mongols are a tiny minority and their army is almost always outnumbered when facing the various enemies on countless battlefields.

The fact that their enemies are much more numerous triggers an inferiority complex among the Mongols, and the panic fear that their armies may be drowned some day in the multitude of the conquered populations. The only solution to make these conquered populations less dangerous, would be to decrease their numbers; and the only way to achieve that would be to massacre an important part of each of them.
...
If one asks: why all those massacres?, the only answer that comes to mind is military necessity. The coming of the Mongol horsemen was generally not followed by rebellion (except in the Khwarezm and especially the Khorassan), because the revolts were crushed beforehand by a terror without precedent. Such massacres, when 98% of the population of certain regions is exterminated, leave a lasting impression. When only 2% of the population is left alive, terror works and the survivors have no inclination to revolt anymore.

Furthermore, during a military campaign, depopulation is sometimes the most convenient means of securing the rear. There is no need to leave behind an occupation army in a depopulated land. The great novelty is to be able to control a territory without ever having to occupy it.

Partisan war against the occupier is impossible. You cannot harass the occupier, then there is no occupation. This kind of remote control (the Mongol armies are stationed far away from the rare conquered cities that have been left intact) renders all modern techniques of urban guerrilla warfare or jungle warfare completely inefficient against the Mongols.

Since carnage bothers me, I don't know whether I could have done what Subotai did. I do understand his rationale in military necessity for doing what he did.

And so it went in our first European military classic:


Agamemnon: "My dear Menelaus, why are you so chary of taking men's lives? Did the Trojans treat you as handsomely as that when they stayed in your house? No; we are not going to leave a single one of them alive, down to the babies in their mothers' wombs--not even they must live. The whole people must be wiped out of existence, and none be left to think of them and shed a tear."
----Homer, Iliad

From one of R.J. Rummel's many pages on "Democide (https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/MURDER.HTM)" - which only considers the carnage wracked up by governments, saying nothing of their opponents.

So, agreed that "it" marks the African Way of War, but "we" should be aware that "we" are not far removed from that jungle and its tipping point.

Regards

Mike

[Bill Moore]

Jim,

Interesting post, one that could be copied as relevant to a number of discussions in the SWJ. An excerpt from your quote,
When only 2% of the population is left alive, terror works and the survivors have no inclination to revolt anymore.

With our so called new theories on COIN and our precision targeting for more conventional wars where we make herculean efforts to avoid killing innocent civilians it seems alien to us that others would pursue a strategy that is very focused on cowing the population via coercion/fear to achieve their ends.

My argument on why I think our COIN doctrine is failing in Afghanistan and failed in Iraq is our assumption that protecting the populace was decisive instead of defeating those who threaten the populace. Protecting the populace against a militant threat that can mass very capable forces relative to indigenous security forces securing the various towns/villages results in a bad math equation for our partners. They're required to protect all 24/7, while our adversaries have the ability to mass power on particular points of their choosing. Our partners in Iraq and Afghanistan can't mass forces proactively nation wide. If we ultimately leave a safehaven in Pakistan for our adversaries to launch attacks from, regardless of well trained the Afghanistan security forces may be, we're leaving them with a very tough mission. On a much smaller level, we can see how a very rich nation has a tough challenge securing a small part of its border when you look at our efforts to secure our southern border.

In my opinion there seems to little appreciation of realism in our doctrine, and a lot of focus on "hope."

[carl]

Bill:

Your right. What we do seems to be conceived and evaluated in cloud cuckoo land.

I think the dead men who knew about this kind of thing, Pershing, Galula, McCuen, Johnston, Taft, MacKenzie and many more, would have the same opinion as you.

[jmm99]

Bill, and everyone else interested:

These monographs take some digesting, but the following people are worth reading - those who don't like unconventional thinking should probably not bother.

Hazelton, Compellence and Accommodation in Counterinsurgency Warfare (http://cdm16635.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p16635coll14/id/55963) (2011) (full 376 pp. version; grab this freebie before it disappears; it's over $80 at Amazon). Here's the Abstract:


Abstract:

The United States today defines its greatest security threats as insurgents and terrorists. It is trying to defeat them with a method of counterinsurgency (COIN) known as the population-centric approach. Is the conventional wisdom correct in claiming that the population-centric approach is the key to defeating insurgencies? No.

This project tests the population-centric approach to COIN through a structured, focused comparison, within-case comparison, and process tracing based on archival research and interviews. It finds that purported population-centric successes were not in fact conducted as such. It finds that population-centric COIN is exceedingly difficult to put into practice for reasons inherent to the paradigm. It further asks why states are only able to defeat insurgencies sometimes and develops an alternative theory of COIN success.

The population-centric paradigm prescribes building strong, responsive, distributive states while strictly limiting the use of force to avoid civilian casualties. This relative emphasis grows from the assumption that the key to victory is gaining broad popular allegiance to the state and thus marginalizing the insurgency.

But the population-centric approach is theoretically and empirically mistaken in its assumptions; in its relative emphasis on lots of political reform and only a little fighting; and in its mechanism of building broad popular support. State building and development are processes separate from COIN. My findings suggest that U.S. policy goals based on the population-centric model may be over-ambitious, extremely costly, and simply impossible to achieve.

I argue that COIN success since 1945 is a function of a heavy reliance on the use of force plus limited, targeted political accommodations that together degrade insurgent capabilities in an iterative process of compellence. The state succeeds by fighting, harrying, exhausting, threatening, conciliating, rewarding, and showing the other two key actors—the insurgency and the populace—that guerrilla victory is impossible. Success is not primarily about killing, although at times the counterinsurgent may kill many people. It is primarily about using force to deny victory to the insurgency.

Cases: Dhofar, Oman, 1965–1976: the Philippines-Huks, 1946–1955; Turkey-PKK, 1991–1999; US-Vietnam, 1956–1965; El Salvador, 1979–1992.

Hazelton, Excerpt from Compellence and Accommodation in Counterinsurgency Warfare - Chapter 3 The Case Of Dhofar, Oman, 1965-1976 (http://reassessingcounterinsurgency.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/hazelton-compellence-and-accommodation-in-couterinsurgency-warfare.pdf) (2011) (52 pp., a fair sample).

From the conclusion of the full monograph (p.324):


In sum, I have determined that the widely heralded population-centric approach is based on a fundamental misreading of past cases and in fact there appears to be an alternative approach, derived from my cases, that seems to work.

This alternative approach, the enemy-centric-plus model, includes four elements:

1) building and professionalizing the military arms of the state to improve targeting and reduce the routine, casual abuse of the populace;

2) providing limited, targeted accommodations to political entrepreneurs whose cooperation strengthens the state’s ability to target the insurgency;

3) targeting the insurgency directly, separately from the populace; and

4) targeting and controlling the populace to restrict the flow of resources to the insurgency.[1]

1 This fourth element is still necessary in cases where the insurgency does not have broad popular support, e.g. in cases where the insurgent-popular relationship is largely coercive and in cases where the insurgency supports itself through the extraction of lootable resources such as timber or gems. This is so because even if the populace does not provide material support to insurgents or provides them only under duress, the insurgency still requires that noncombatants not tell the state what they know about its activities, members, bases, and caches. Population and resource control measures include such things as rationing, a census, identity cards, and checkpoints.

Hazelton, The False Promise of the Governance Model of Counterinsurgency Warfare (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2110732) (2012) (54 pp.):


Abstract:

What explains success in counterinsurgency (COIN)? The conventional wisdom says that COIN success requires major reforms that will remove the popular grievances fueling the insurgency. The logic is that state building and good governance will win broad popular support, marginalizing the insurgent cause and weakening the guerrillas. But this view of COIN success, what I term the “governance model,” relies on a misreading of history.

This study tests the governance approach in the very cases proponents themselves present as models -- the British campaign in Malaya, the U.S.-backed defeat of the Huks in the Philippines, the British-led success in Dhofar, Oman, and the U.S.-backed success in El Salvador -- a test it should pass easily. But the model fails. I find no empirical evidence that the governance approach defeats insurgencies. Indeed, the governance approach was not even applied in these cases.

It is very difficult to apply -- even imperfectly -- for a powerful reason: Major reforms threaten the interests of the elites expected to implement them. In addition, the elites' great power sponsor lacks the leverage to force the issue. This study shows that the governance model is theoretically and empirically mistaken in its assumptions; its emphasis on major reforms; and its mechanism of building popular support for the state as the key to defeating the insurgency.

The cases typically identified as exemplars of governance COIN contradict the governance approach in all respects. Each case included significant intentional uses of force against civilians and relatively little state development or democratization. This research suggests that policymakers and military planners relying on the governance approach base their decisions on a myth, and that employing this approach in current or future conflicts will not lead to success.

Alach, Slowing Military Change (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub878.pdf) (2008, SSI, 107 pp.). IMO: his most material point (p.64):


THE REVOLUTION IN ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE MILITARY

Perception leads into the “one” of the six (and one) noted earlier, and perhaps n the one theme that is truly novel; it may well be the theme that has the greatest effect on the future shape of the strategic environment.

It is closely related to both globalization and the RMA, and it is another revolution: the Revolution in Attitudes towards the Military (RAM).[238] Grossly simplified, it refers to a change in perceptions that is especially apparent in Western democracies. Populations are less willing to serve, demand greater civilian control over defense matters, and are far more casualty averse.

While there has been some alteration to those attitudes in some countries since the events of 9/11, by and large they grow continually stronger around the globe. Militaries have become more politically correct, have embraced diversity and sexual equality, and have become tagged more and more with such roles as peace operations and civil reconstruction, rather than warfighting.

Support for militaries is as high, if not higher, than was the case historically, but the character of that support has changed. Partly, the RAM has come about through the increasing reach of the media, but it is also a sign of the changing political maturity of electorates around the world. Without the overarching threat of the Cold War, the public seldom sees a military cause worth dying or killing for in any great numbers. At the same time, they are wary of the limitations that the high cost of military acquisitions impose on other domestic spending programs.

238. Black, War in the New Century, p. 9.

In his second monograph (next post), Alach moves away from the technology of warfighting ("RMA") to the psychology of the warfighters and of those who send them to war ("RAM").

- to be cont.-

[jmm99]

Alach, The New Aztecs - Ritual and Restraint in Contemporary Western Military Operations (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1076) (2011, SSI, pp.81):


SUMMARY

Centuries ago, the Aztecs of Central America fought their wars in a ritualized and restrained manner, not seeking total victory but rather the capture of live prisoners. It was a style of warfare that seems strange to us today, who have been brought up on Clausewitzian concepts of the meaning of war. We think of ourselves as scientific, instrumentalist practitioners of the art of war, seeking maximum military effectiveness.

The key argument of this monograph is that the Western way of war has actually come full circle and returned to its primitive roots. The monograph begins by identifying the primary factors that shape war. It then studies the evolution of warfare over time, beginning with what is known as primitive warfare. War began as glorified hunting, an extension of martial culture, heavily circumscribed by both ritual and restraint. The monograph then examines the major historical eras of warfare. While there was no steady evolution in a single direction, by and large, warfare became less and less subject to cultural restraint, and more and more total.

The monograph then briefly examines a range of recent Western operations that show a clear move away from total war and back toward ritual and restraint. Our most recent wars are driven far more by cultural beliefs and moral standards, including respect for international law, than they are by considerations of raw military effectiveness. A secondary argument, linked intimately to the first, is that we in the West, especially the media, do not seem to realize that we are limiting our arms to such an extent. We continue to see contemporary warfare as brutal and extremely deadly.

The monograph then posits a series of interlinked factors contributing to this re-emergent ritual and restraint. The main factors are a decline in the perceived utility of war, sociocultural attitudes in the West, the impact of democracy, and the professionalism of contemporary soldiers. Finally, the monograph looks at the implications of this return to ritual and restraint. Are the “new Aztecs” in danger of appeasing the “sun god,” but ignoring the conquistadors at the gates?

Alach's bottom line is generally somber (pp.37-39):


THE IMPLICATIONS OF RITUAL AND RESTRAINT

This monograph has taken the position that the West, turning aside from the progression of history, has returned, at least for now, to a ritualized and restrained method of warfare, albeit for very different reasons than those that motivated primitive tribes to behave in such a manner. What does this mean for the West?

A positive implication is the possibility that Western military behavior will affect the behavior of other military cultures. This may then lead to humanitarian, restrained warfare becoming the norm. It will likely have positive effects for humanity as a whole, strengthening respect for life and reducing the number of people who die from conflict. However, there are other more ominous implications as well.

One is that that the West will lose an accurate understanding of the nature of war. The longer it continues to fight in a constrained manner, the more normalized that methodology will become. The decision making spectrum available to leaders for future military endeavors will be restricted to those low-danger, low-intensity options favored today.

A further implication of this style of warfare is that future military operations will be driven by public opinion and politics more than by policy. Traditionally, it has been the role of leaders to lead; while they have been cognizant of popular beliefs, they have also understood that there are some elements of national policy that are unpopular, but necessary. In some ways, this is still so in the West; countries are still willing to embark on unpopular expeditions. The problem develops, however, when leaders are “anxious to go to war, but unwilling to fight.” Leaders, ignorant of the realities of war, try to limit the political harm flowing from an unpopular operation by heavily restricting the methods used in order to minimize the casualties and costs.

Another implication is the prospect of the West losing the moral high ground through grandiose efforts to keep the moral high ground—paradoxically a self-defeating approach. Treating one’s enemy with some respect is wise, for it prevents overconfidence.

However, if the West continues to demand that its forces treat its enemies with extraordinary respect, take maximum care to avoid collateral damage, and even avoid the killing of enemy combatants, the end result may well be an increase in the public cachet of the enemy. Expectations determine perceptions.

The final implications relate to military effectiveness.

First, there is the question of whether or not ritualized and restrained methods of conflict are actually counterproductive on the battlefield, especially when fighting a foe whose methods are unrestrained.

The second is to question whether or not restrained methods have the unintended effect of extending the duration of wars, which in turn increases the overall harm inflicted by the conflict. If this is so, then by trying to limit the brutality of war, the West may make it ultimately even more harmful.

The third element is the potential effect of such a style of warfare on the West’s future effectiveness. As noted, ritualized and restrained wars usually last a long time. By maintaining a series of overseas garrisons for the foreseeable future, the West may well weaken itself substantially. Militaries may become so focused on these low-intensity, long-duration operations that their efficacy for other operations will decline.

It pays to consider the Aztecs. At the time of the Flower Wars, the Aztecs were hegemonic in Central America. They could fight in a ritualized way because they had no true rival. When a rival did appear—a rival named Cortes, who fought in an amoral, instrumental, rational, unrestrained, and non-ritualized manner—the Aztecs were defeated. Cortes fought to kill. He fought to win.

Is there a Cortes awaiting the West today? Will we, the contemporary Flower Warriors, face a foe who, to be defeated, requires our willingness to kill, be killed, and fight to the bitter end? Is the current style of Western warfare but a mere historical blip, a momentary anomaly that will disappear when the world changes again? History cannot answer that question, but we had better be prepared to answer it ourselves.

The next author, Anna Simons, sees Cortes having a definite advantage over the contemporary Flower Warrior.

- to be cont.-

[jmm99]

Picking up where Alach left off is Anna Simons, 21st Century Cultures of War - Advantage Them (https://www.fpri.org/docs/Simons_21st_Century_Cultures_of_War.pdf) (2013, NPS, 64 pp.), whose title answers the "Cortes" question - the contemporary Flower Warriors will fare as badly as the Aztecs.


INTRODUCTION

This paper aims to sound two alarms. First, about “them.” We Americans have long assumed many non-Westerners are more primitive, less advanced, and ultimately less capable than we are. This is a mistaken view. Not only are many much more sophisticated than we realize, but they are especially adept in the realm of social relations, which has never been our strong suit.

Consequently, one challenge we face is that in much the same way our technological prowess led the Soviets to overreach (and thus the Soviet Union to collapse), non-Westerners’ ability to outmaneuver us in the field of social relations will lead us to continue to overextend ourselves. And worse, we won’t achieve clear wins. In writing this I do not mean to imply that our overreach will be purposely orchestrated by any one actor or set of actors, although that remains a distinct possibility. Rather, people abroad (and here at home, working on behalf of people abroad) will continue to seek U.S. military assistance for a host of reasons, both venal and legitimate, and the effects will continue to be cumulatively corrosive. Just look at our current culture of war—which brings me to the second source of alarm: us.

Our technical ingenuity, our work ethic, and our productive capacity have long distinguished us. Engineering, one could say, is our forte. We Americans make things work. All of which would appear to stand our military in good stead. And indeed, until recently, our “can do,” problem-solving professionalism did advantage us. However, no longer. I write “no longer” because we no longer seem to want to apply our comparative strengths definitively. At the same time, “can do” overstates what we can accomplish. ...

On the issue of "Restrained warfare":


3) Restrained warfare. Since the advent of the Cold War, every “war” the U.S. has fought has been limited which, by definition, means restrained; we neither go all out nor commit our entire arsenal to winning. The U.S. has been able to wage limited wars thanks to our positioning and resources. No one can out-produce us. Geographically, we remain impossible to overrun. Better still, in every conflict since the Mexican War, we have fought “over there.”

This has been hugely significant. It means that we actually could have fought with less restraint had we so chosen, and that we are the ones who have decided to limit the nature of war. We like to think we have done so for ideological and moral reasons. But, on closer examination, this might be as much an artifact of the dawning of the nuclear age and the Cold War, coinciding with the luxury of no near-peer adversaries apart from the USSR. After all, no one we have fought against has really fought back: not Panamanians, Somalis, Serbs, or even the Iraqi Army.

World War II marks several watersheds. Among them, our rules of engagement have grown increasingly complicated and more discriminating, while non-Westerners increasingly target non-combatants. Or, as Zhivan Alach has put it, while “The West may be retreating toward restraint in warfare… non-Western actors may be charging headlong toward unrestrained methods.” Actually, the anthropologically correct observation would be that everyone demonstrates restraint—it is just that what constitutes restraint is cross-culturally contingent, and non-Westerners don’t apply the same brakes we do. Not only are non-Westerners who seize power bolder in what they are willing to do, but they exhibit no discernible remorse.

For obvious reasons, comity between a society’s conception of war and how combatants would fight if they were unconstrained is harder to achieve or maintain in democracies and heterogeneous states than in militarized (especially militarized tribally based) societies, which leads to yet another Western/non-Western rub.
...
... At least since WWII, policy makers in, and not just out of, the military have helped habituate the Services to regard fighting as a signaling device. Recall Vietnam—the U.S. bombed Hanoi to get the North Vietnamese to negotiate; bombing wasn’t done to force them to give up. Or more recently there is the example of Kosovo and our 79-day-long air war.
...
... Yet, treating war as a messaging device overlooks two truisms about the use of force. First, in Western/non-Western contests, miscommunication is all but guaranteed. We only deceive ourselves when we assume others understand, or will want to understand, or will not want to purposely misunderstand the intent in our messaging. Second, fighting never feels semiotic to those engaged in it.

On "Wile":


Wile requires at least four attributes:

1) the ability to identify that feature or set of features in an adversary’s culture that can be used as the fulcrum by, with, and through which to permanently alter conditions,

2) the ability to read all players so that you know how to appeal to, neutralize, and/or outwit each equally well,

3) an intuitive ability to tease, test, and probe so that you can make your own opportunities and don’t operate on others’ timeline(s), and

4) an appetite for twitting others, which means relishing the idea of turning the tables on adversaries in order to cause them to undo themselves.

At best, the most unconventional U.S. units today strive to “screw with others’ heads,” which they can generally do only after commanders figure out how to wrest the right authorities from the right agencies and bureaucracies. Then, should such individuals succeed at fusing their information operations, psyop, strategic communications, and operator capabilities to sow dissension and distrust, at best they can cause problems at the tactical and operational levels: they usually don’t have the wherewithal to strategically coordinate beyond their area of operations.

This is why to truly “screw with their heads” requires that commanders be able to apply wile: a) locally, b) coordinating across locations and over time, and c) supra-locally in order to both buy and control time.

Of course, to give the military its best shot at mastering a situation so that others can’t effectively maneuver it, or anything else, against us—to include youth, accidental guerrillas, or public sentiment—calls for unrestrained warfare. But, given current sensibilities, this hardly appears an option. Thus, seeking to “screw with others’ heads” provides one way to augment the use of force. Or, replace it.

However, we would make a massive, but classically American mistake, to assume that wile is something the military can either teach or train. William Donovan and the OSS recognized how uncommon an attribute wile is. They also realized it was a trait that needs to be selected for ...

Answering the quest for wily coyotes, Lindeman, Better Lucky Than Good - A Theory of Unconventional Minds and the Power of 'Who' (https://calhoun.nps.edu/public/bitstream/handle/10945/4312/09Dec_Lindeman.pdf?sequence=1) (2009, NPS; Anna Simons was his thesis advisor) (161 pp.). IMO: His most material point:


B. THEORY OF AN UNCONVENTIONAL MIND

Simons suggests that succeeding in irregular warfare, especially when operating in foreign cultures and with “Others,” requires something that cannot be taught—or trained. The right “kind” of mind is necessary. She makes it clear that this is an important distinction. It is not temporal, like a frame of mind. It is a permanent kind of mind.[3] It’s an unconventional kind of mind.

To understand what an unconventional kind of mind is, it is important to first understand what a conventional kind of mind is. Given a conventional kind of mind, an individual’s ability to evaluate, process, and contend with new or different situations is bounded by domain and wedded to past actions. An individual with an unconventional kind of mind is not bound by these constraints. Someone with an unconventional kind of mind is capable of synthesizing across domains or innovating in order to solve problems while orienting and adapting to new circumstances or changing conditions.

This thesis posits that success in an irregular warfare environment requires individuals with an unconventional kind of mind; some individuals naturally think unconventionally, or irregularly, compared to everyone else. These individuals have a natural ability to, as Simons writes:


...intuitively think in terms of branches and sequels, and therefore don’t need to ask themselves what the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects of an action might be–they’ve already factored that in without consciously factoring it in. Or they have the ability to see angles from angles that remain obtuse to others.[4]

These are the first-stringers that America should be seeking to employ in irregular warfare.

3 & 4. Anna Simons and Mike Weathers, “Anthropology and Irregular Warfare – India,” (Unpublished paper, Naval Postgraduate School, 2008), 20-21.

All worth reading.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

[snip for brevity]

So, agreed that "it" marks the African Way of War, but "we" should be aware that "we" are not far removed from that jungle and its tipping point.

Regards

Mike

Mike thank you. Acting in haste my attempt to put my thoughts into one sentence left a lot to be desired.

Once again I place on record the example of just how thin the veneer of civilisation is in Europe as demonstated during the Bosnian war. One does not have to mention the near sub-human depravity of the Germans (and Japanese) around 1939-45.

I merely state that in African wars it is the civilian population which is specifically targeted. Let us not talk of insurgents now as decolonialisation is complete and Africans now fight against Africans in their manner.

These wars are tribal or religious (plus a few other reasons) where the enemy is everyone on the opposssssing side. Old men, women and children specifically included.

All members of an opposing tribe are the enemy. All Moslems or all Christians are the enemy. This down to infants and the unborn and not only those under arms.

To most westerners the wholesale massacre of women and children is unpalatable and unacceptable... not so for many others across the world.

As far as actual fighting is concerned Mao taught insurgents:

“The enemy advances, we retreat; the enemy camps, we harass; the enemy tires, we attack; the enemy retreats, we pursue”

In more conventional interstate wars the fighting takes places between two armies where civilians can get in the way and need to be avoided.

In African wars fighting between armed groups is most often fleeting where one side will flee if they believe they are outgunned and outnumbered after initial wild exchanges. This leaves the victor to deal with the remaining 'enemy' (read old men, women and children) in the surrounding villages in the classic rape, loot and pillage style.

[JMA]

With our so called new theories on COIN and our precision targeting for more conventional wars where we make herculean efforts to avoid killing innocent civilians it seems alien to us that others would pursue a strategy that is very focused on cowing the population via coercion/fear to achieve their ends. "

Thats right and its down to who blinks first.

Remember that we impose upon ourselves the burden of believing that all civilians are innocent.

You look at the circus this has led to in Afghanistan.

This is not a call to kill civilians but rather to get real about who is doing during a war. One would have thought the Vietnam experience would have led to some truth coming home to the US military but sadly looking at Afghanistan nothing was learned.

Worth a read is the following:

The Art of Coercion: The Primitive Accumulation and Management of Coercive Power
(The Art of Coercion: The Primitive Accumulation and Management of Coercive Power)

[jmm99]

Remember that we impose upon ourselves the burden of believing that all civilians are innocent.

This is a subject which badly needs discussion - not in this thread, I'll add; but in one of the threads looking at the policies and resultant rules concerning civilians and who may be targeted for neutralization (kill, detain, convert). Now, eventually back to the thread, but first.

Your link to The Art of Coercion: The Primitive Accumulation and Management of Coercive Power (http://www.amazon.com/The-Art-Coercion-Accumulation-Management/dp/023170240X) (Amazon) was broken (at least for me). After reading the Amazon blurb, and this book review by Dale Walton (http://www.lindenwood.edu/jigs/docs/volume5Issue1/bookReviews/132-134.pdf):


Giustozzi clearly appreciates the complexity of historical formation, collapse, and reformation of polities—and that this progression is not inevitably a “one-way” street. Thus, he digs deeply into the historical record to understand how coercive power is accumulated, translated into power over a geographical area, and progressively expanded outward.

He advances a number of interlinking hypotheses regarding how this occurs.

First, he asserts “that institution-building is a key aspect of any process of taming violence” (p. 7).

Second, he claims that “pre-empting hostile collective action through co-option, alliances, manipulation and intimidation is as important as the mere accumulation of means of coercion, and entire agencies of the state have been developed historically to implement this task” (p. 9).

Third, Giustozzi believes that the primitive accumulation of power generally is a ruthlessly violent process, with civil conflict continuing until one faction can establish a monopoly on violence—but, notably, even that monopoly may be broken, causing the process to begin again.

Fourth, he says, “Often in civil conflicts, violence is employed according to a logic and is therefore only seemingly indiscriminate. But sophisticated military political actors clearly understand what kind of violence is counter-productive,” with sophistication meaning at least some actors in a conflict comprehend this reality, even if that is not the case with all of them (p. 12).

Fifth, says Giustozzi, “Policing is a specific strategy of consolidating the monopoly of violence” (p. 14).

Sixth, he asserts that “the renegotiation of the terms of the political settlement, which may include changes in the command and control structure within the coercive apparatus, may weaken the ability of the ruling elite to operate in a coordinated fashion and endanger the monopoly of violence” (p. 16-17).

His final, and no doubt most controversial, hypothesis “is that external intervention, even in its milder form of advice and support, is most likely to be counter-productive in achieving and maintaining the monopoly of violence” (p. 18).

Given the general thrust of his hypotheses, it is unsurprising that Giustozzi has a rather grim view of the process of state-building; he straightforwardly challenges some of the core assumptions undergirding liberal interventionism, and his critique reflects the views of a writer who has an insightful and nuanced understanding of the issues at hand. It is striking that even most of the supposed successes of liberal interventionism are at best decidedly incomplete, according to Giustozzi.

I ordered a used hardcover version. If Walton is accurate, Giustozzi describes what I've concluded in looking at Norman England and the Ile de France of the period ca. 1100-1450.

Also, since I been an opponent of "liberal intervention" from 1964 (Hal McMaster's Dereliction of Duty (http://www.amazon.com/Dereliction-Duty-Johnson-McNamara-Vietnam/dp/0060187956) and Bill Corson's The Betrayal (http://www.amazon.com/Betrayal-William-R-Corson/dp/B0006BULDE) tell it true of that one - IMO, of course), Giustozzi has to be something of "friendly" territory for me. :)

While waiting for the book to come, I did chase down Giustozzi a bit (who's written mucho on Astan); but, I thought this more general article, Double-edged swords: armies, elite bargaining and state building - An overview paper (http://www.lse.ac.uk/internationalDevelopment/research/crisisStates/download/wp/wpSeries2/wp86rev.pdf) (2011, CSRC, 34pp.), might be a fair sampler of his book:


Conclusion: organisation vs. coercion

The case studies for this overview paper, which will be published in a separate volume, allow us to make a number of points.

The first one is that even ‘virtuous’ techniques of civilian control over the military and of institutionalisation of the armed forces can lead to unexpected negative results, particularly if the civilian counterpart is weak and divided. In other words it is inappropriate to see techniques as good or bad per se, since their impact depends on the wider political and social context. Given a context not conducive to the establishment of what North et al. (2009) call ‘open access orders’, these techniques are not necessarily better or more appropriate than any other.

Therefore, a wider range of techniques for taming violence has to be explored in order to identify realistic options to secure at least some conditions that are necessary for a developmental take-off: the consolidation of a state monopoly over violence; the reaching of a political settlement; and the establishment of a relatively effective state machinery. Any particular technique or strategy has trade-offs; none work in every circumstance or suit every need.

It is also obvious from our case studies that elite bargaining can come at the expense of the effectiveness of the agencies of coercion. Like other agencies of the state, the armed forces often become the object of the distribution of the spoils during the formulation of the bargain. Alternatively, the army will be formed through the incorporation of separate militias, which were until recently fighting each other and which are linked to the different partners in the bargaining process.

This is particularly the case when the ruling elite is not organised around a solid political organisation with a wide social base, either developed as an insurgent organisation or as an expression of sectors of civil society. A solid political party might be able to mediate the formulation of the elite bargain and incorporate factions and individuals in a more regulated, institutionalised way, as arguably was the case in Tanzania. ...

In looking at the other CSRC papers, we have on "elite bargaining", specifically in an African context, these three by Stefan Lindemann:

Do inclusive elite bargains matter? A research framework for understanding the causes of civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa (http://www.lse.ac.uk/internationalDevelopment/research/crisisStates/download/dp/dp15.pdf) (2008, 33 pp.).

Inclusive elite bargains and civil war avoidance: The case of Zambia (http://www.lse.ac.uk/internationalDevelopment/research/crisisStates/download/wp/wpSeries2/WP772.pdf) (2010, 64pp.).

Exclusionary elite bargains and civil war onset: The case of Uganda (http://www.lse.ac.uk/internationalDevelopment/research/crisisStates/download/wp/wpSeries2/WP762.pdf) (2010, 80pp.)

In the CAR thread, KingJaja said (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=152861&postcount=40):


Africa's problems are for Africans to solve. My point is that after the seemingly endless cycle of violence and external intervention - at a certain point, some unstable states will either fall apart permanently or work out an indigenous solution to their teething problems.

CAR for example, has bifurcated - it a essentially a "Christian" enclave in the South and a much smaller "Muslim" enclave in the North. No amount of elections will change that essential reality. And international community is wasting time by impeding the process of formation of two independent separate states in that part of the World.

In my native Nigeria, we are preparing for a National Dialogue, a three month discussion on what different ethnic nationalities want from the Nigerian state. This goes beyond mere elections, Africa's artificial states have flawed foundations and the best way forward is for locals to proactively discuss these challenges and build a state that caters to their needs (not a mere ex-colonial administrative unit).

KJ: What is your opinion of these Westerners' competence in addressing contemporary African state development ? Are they merely junk science or do they at least understand the African picture ?

Regards

Mike

[carl]

Since the subject of Aztecs and Conquistadors is part of the discussion, perhaps a reference that shows the ferocity and finality of that collision is warranted.

This is a brilliant book.

http://www.amazon.com/Conquest-Cortes-Montezuma-Fall-Mexico/dp/0671511041/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1393806675&sr=1-1&keywords=conquest+hugh+thomas

[KingJaja]

Interesting read on the roots of ethnic violence in Nigeria & the role of the British in promoting ethnic divisions.

Written by a respected Nigerian academic.

http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/papers/nnoli_021003.pdf

I expect similar accounts for the French in their ex-colonies.

[JMA]

KingJaja,

Is it not time to move away from the intellectual dishonesty that continues to flow out of the ex-colonies in Africa?

The lie that is being sold to the ignorant and gullable in Europe and North America is that all the African tribes and ethnic groups lived in perfect harmony until the European colonists arrived.

The greatest contribution your generation can make is to stop the incessant resuscitation of this garbage and address the truth of history ... and move on and take responsibility for the future of your respective countries.


Interesting read on the roots of ethnic violence in Nigeria & the role of the British in promoting ethnic divisions.

Written by a respected Nigerian academic.

http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/papers/nnoli_021003.pdf

I expect similar accounts for the French in their ex-colonies.

[KingJaja]

The Tenth Parallel North has been described as the "fault line where Islam and Christianity meet and clash." [1] In Africa, the Tenth Parallel passes west to east through Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Sudan and Somalia. Cameroon is the only one of these countries to avoid major ethnic, religious, sectarian or terrorism-related conflict in the last decade.

However, militants are now using Cameroon as a rear base for carrying out attacks in Nigeria and the Central African Republic (CAR). These groups include Boko Haram and Ansaru in northern Cameroon and (CAR) militants, including Slka, in eastern Cameroon. Cameroon is likely to see new security threats spilling over into its territory from its two Tenth Parallel neighbors, as well as increasing pressures on the state from refugee flows into Cameroon from Nigeria and the CAR.

http://www.refworld.org/docid/52e0e6d84.html

Interesting analysis

[SWJ Blog]

Nigeria Falls Into 'a State of War' as Islamist Insurgency Rages (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/nigeria-falls-into-a-state-of-war-as-islamist-insurgency-rages)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/nigeria-falls-into-a-state-of-war-as-islamist-insurgency-rages) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

Another crisis (has nothing to do with either the Niger Delta or Boko Haram) in Nigeria's volatile "Middle Belt".

Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.


Makurdi — Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State, Monday, afternoon escaped death by the whiskers when his convoy was ambushed by Fulani herdsmen who engaged his security aides in exchange of gunfire at Tee‑Akanyi village in Guma local government area of the state.

This was just after the rampaging invaders had sacked about 64 villages on the Daudu‑Gbajimba axis of the council, killing no fewer than 37 persons whose corpses still littered the invaded communities.

In his reaction, former PDP chairman, Senator Barnabas Gemade, representing Benue North East Senatorial District alleged that those behind the invasion and killing of the people of Tiv and Idoma of Benue State were mercenaries from neighbouring African countries of Chad, Mali and Cameroon that had been contracted to destabilize the country.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201403120223.html

[JMA]

I ordered a used hardcover version. If Walton is accurate, Giustozzi describes what I've concluded in looking at Norman England and the Ile de France of the period ca. 1100-1450.

Mike has this been confirmed?

[Dayuhan]

Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.

What steps do you think need to be taken, and by whom?

Hard to see how any foreign power has the standing to be involved... are there local entities with the capacity to really take charge of things without being perceived as working purely toward their own ends?

[JMA]

Another crisis (has nothing to do with either the Niger Delta or Boko Haram) in Nigeria's volatile "Middle Belt".

Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.

This incident is not a crisis (by African standards).

This is Nigeria's current crisis:

Nigeria orders probe into 'missing $20bn' of oil money (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26553388)

Now back to the side-show at Katsina...

From the BBC:

Nigeria attack: Scores killed in Katsina state (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26562931)


Most Fulani-related violence in Nigeria is concentrated around central Plateau state, where Muslim herders are pitted against Christian farmers. Thousands have been killed in recent years.

Such conflicts - a mix of land disputes, tribal and religious animosity - are unrelated to the Islamist insurgency concentrated mainly in Nigeria's northeast, in which many civilians have also been killed.

So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

The Brits would probably have given the Fulani an ultimatum to surrender the perpetrators and when they were not produced conducted a punitive raid where they confiscated cattle - say 100 for each person killed - and handed them over to the surviving victims.

This of course would just cause the Fulani to conduct raids to steal 'their' cattle back.

So send up some military helicopters and shoot 5,000 or so Fulani cattle and engage any tribesmen who fire on the helicopters. On second thoughts, make that 10,000 cattle to make sure they get the message and also reduce the pressure on the grazing land available.

Happy hunting ;)

[jmm99]

I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=19610), when I get around to it.

Regards

Mike

PS: Hmm ..., 100 cattle per perp. Sounds like the founding of Rhodesia, Rhodes, The Life & Legend of Cecil Rhodes Ep.5 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzOeXpQsglg) (start at 39:45, with Johnson's ultimatum to the Shona).

[ganulv]

Most Fulani-related violence in Nigeria is concentrated around central Plateau state, where Muslim herders are pitted against Christian farmers. Thousands have been killed in recent years.

Such conflicts - a mix of land disputes, tribal and religious animosity - are unrelated to the Islamist insurgency concentrated mainly in Nigeria's northeast, in which many civilians have also been killed.

So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

Relationships between nomads and their neighbors are fraught by nature. That certainly can’t be blamed on the colonial powers. The imposition of colonial and then national borders made Fula subsistence patterns more difficult to maintain, though, so colonial and post-colonial governance have exacerbated the tensions to a degree.

[JMA]

I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=19610), when I get around to it.

Regards

Mike

PS: Hmm ..., 100 cattle per perp. Sounds like the founding of Rhodesia, Rhodes, The Life & Legend of Cecil Rhodes Ep.5 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzOeXpQsglg) (start at 39:45, with Johnson's ultimatum to the Shona).

In this case it would be punitive... in those days it was used as a pretext ;)

There must some great examples of pretext out of American history, yes?

[JMA]

Relationships between nomads and their neighbors are fraught by nature. That certainly can’t be blamed on the colonial powers. The imposition of colonial and then national borders made Fula subsistence patterns more difficult to maintain, though, so colonial and post-colonial governance have exacerbated the tensions to a degree.

In most of these remote areas the borders were purely administrative and movements continued must as before.

Competition over land use - as you mentioned - is probably the cause and mainly due to the growth of the population that must be sustained from the land. Not sure how much water is an (additional contributing) issue there... but you would know about that matter from US history out West with the 'water wars'.

Something has to give... there has to be a loser (and he must lose big).

[JMA]

I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=19610), when I get around to it.

Look forward to that.

[KingJaja]

What steps do you think need to be taken, and by whom?

Hard to see how any foreign power has the standing to be involved... are there local entities with the capacity to really take charge of things without being perceived as working purely toward their own ends?

An important first step is a "national conference". Nigeria can live with Boko Haram if it is contained to the North east, but these other conflicts are intensely political & more of a threat to our future.

National conference:


Finally, it is instructive to note that Ethiopia in 1991 conducted a national conference and came out with a far reaching people’s constitution in 1994 with a clause that creates a two-tiered federal structure, which, at least in principle, emphasised ethnic groups’ rights and the right to self-determination which are necessary ingredient for a stable democracy and on the other hand, Nigeria should not also be in a hurry forget the case of the former Yugoslavia in Europe with similar historical trajectories like us disintegrated in 1992–1999 respectively.

http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2014/02/24/national-conference-time-to-forge-ahead/

[KingJaja]

This incident is not a crisis (by African standards).

This is Nigeria's current crisis:

Nigeria orders probe into 'missing $20bn' of oil money (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26553388)

Now back to the side-show at Katsina...

From the BBC:

Nigeria attack: Scores killed in Katsina state (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26562931)


So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

The Brits would probably have given the Fulani an ultimatum to surrender the perpetrators and when they were not produced conducted a punitive raid where they confiscated cattle - say 100 for each person killed - and handed them over to the surviving victims.

This of course would just cause the Fulani to conduct raids to steal 'their' cattle back.

So send up some military helicopters and shoot 5,000 or so Fulani cattle and engage any tribesmen who fire on the helicopters. On second thoughts, make that 10,000 cattle to make sure they get the message and also reduce the pressure on the grazing land available.

Happy hunting ;)

A few points:

A. Lucky Brits, they happened to rule Nigeria when AK 47s weren't easily
available.
B. We actually have elections & democracy - so you don't win votes by demanding 200 cows from (or whatever) from an ethnic group.
C. Yes, the Nigerian government has been incompetent & corrupt - since Independence, but you can't play "Cecil Rhodes" here, not even the Brits can.

[JMA]

A few points:

A. Lucky Brits, they happened to rule Nigeria when AK 47s weren't easily
available.
B. We actually have elections & democracy - so you don't win votes by demanding 200 cows from (or whatever) from an ethnic group.
C. Yes, the Nigerian government has been incompetent & corrupt - since Independence, but you can't play "Cecil Rhodes" here, not even the Brits can.

Then as you said earlier:


Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.

Democracy? More like a Kleptocracy.

[jmm99]

Sure; we had a lot of both.

Here's my favorite cow story (which has both), Into the West - Part 3 (Dreams and Schemes) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q750oxTaBJQ); starts at 56:00; ends at 1:02:20. Great ending, IMO - payback's a mother - the "Grattan Pincushion". ;) Historical event (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grattan_massacre)).

Regards

Mike

[KingJaja]

Interesting/bizarre story.

Istanbul (AFP) - Turkish Airlines allegedly shipped weapons to unknown groups in Nigeria, which has been ravaged by violence between the army and Boko Haram militants, a new incriminating phone call revealed on Tuesday.

The leaked conversation is the latest blow to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been hit by a corruption probe ensnaring his key allies and a widening phone-tapping scandal.


In a tape posted on YouTube, Mehmet Karatas, an assistant executive of the airline, allegedly tells Mustafa Varank, an advisor to Erdogan, that he feels guilty over national flag carrier's arms shipment to Nigeria.

"I do not know whether these (weapons) will kill Muslims or Christians. I feel sinful," Karatas is allegedly heard saying.

The leaked call has the potential to harm the airline's image -- which is 49 percent state-owned and is in an aggressive push to become a global player.

It is the latest in a series of recordings implicating Erdogan and his aides in corruption and other abuses of power ahead of crucial local polls on March 30.

The Turkish strongman has dismissed most of the tapes as "vile" fakes put together by rivals.

http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-airlines-allegedly-ships-arms-nigeria-tape-reveals-202353840.html

[davidbfpo]

The title of a Nigerian news site, which is almost breathless in its applause:http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/new-nigeria-plan-to-tackle-boko-haram-wins-plaudits/

How about this passage as a taster:
National Security Adviser Sambo Dasuki unveiled the new measures in a rare public announcement that touched not only on past mistakes but indicated a more joined-up approach to tackling the crisis.

Dasuki’s “soft power” plan includes “de-radicalisation” programmes for suspected and convicted Boko Haram fighters as well as closer co-operation with communities most affected by the deadly violence.

[KingJaja]

This has no direct connection with Boko Haram or other topics of interest to terrorism scholars. But it illustrates the massive youth unemployment & underemployment that fuels a lot of the problems in Nigeria.

In summary about 520,000 people applied for a little over 4,000 jobs - & as of today 16 people died in the ensuing stampede over the nation.


ABUJA – At least seven people were killed and dozens injured in Nigeria’s capital after thousands of panicked job-seekers stampeded during a government recruitment drive in the national stadium on Saturday.
Survivors told AFP that thousands had gathered to apply for jobs with the immigration department in the Abuja stadium.
One witness said the stampede broke out as applicants surged towards a central stage. They said only one entrance to the 60,000-capacity stadium was open. It wasn’t clear how many people were inside at the time of the crush.
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/immigrations-recruitment-7-feared-dead-stampede-abuja/#sthash.4JlhEAik.dpuf

[davidbfpo]

Well the new strategy has certainly had a baptism of fire:
Well over 500 people were killed in Nigeria last week when security forces responded to what the military portrayed as a jailbreak attempt by the Islamist group Boko Haram, making it one of the bloodiest episodes yet in the military’s five-year counterinsurgency campaign, according to officials in the northern town of Maiduguri.

As inmates streamed last Friday through the opened gates of Giwa Barracks, a notorious military detention center in Maiduguri, a military plane fired on them while soldiers on the ground also opened fire, killing scores, a senior hospital official in Maiduguri said.

Much about the episode remains unclear, such as how attackers were able to penetrate one of the most heavily fortified sites in northern Nigeria, in daylight. The assault, which the military called a Boko Haram raid, has not been claimed by the group, though it often does not claim responsibility for attacks. No Boko Haram member, living or dead, has been presented to the media, despite the military’s claim last week that “many of the terrorists and their weapons have been captured.”

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/world/africa/nigerian-army-facing-questions-as-death-toll-soars-after-prison-attack.html?emc=edit_ee_20140321&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=67232673&_r=0

[JMA]

Just think what job creation could take place if you could stop the politicians and civil servants from looting the country... and recover even half of what has been stolen already?

Problem solved... what's next?



This has no direct connection with Boko Haram or other topics of interest to terrorism scholars. But it illustrates the massive youth unemployment & underemployment that fuels a lot of the problems in Nigeria.

In summary about 520,000 people applied for a little over 4,000 jobs - & as of today 16 people died in the ensuing stampede over the nation.


- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/immigrations-recruitment-7-feared-dead-stampede-abuja/#sthash.4JlhEAik.dpuf

[JMA]

Well the new strategy has certainly had a baptism of fire:

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/world/africa/nigerian-army-facing-questions-as-death-toll-soars-after-prison-attack.html?emc=edit_ee_20140321&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=67232673&_r=0

In daylight? And per chance there was an armed aircraft overhead and soldiers in just the right position when it happens?

Guarantee next time someone leaves the gate open none of the surviving detainess are going to try and make a run for it.

That's the way we do it in Africa ;)

[KingJaja]

Just think what job creation could take place if you could stop the politicians and civil servants from looting the country... and recover even half of what has been stolen already?

Problem solved... what's next?

I thought we want a serious discussion of issues here - not to suggest that:

1. I don't know that public money is being looted in Nigeria.
2. Outright dismissal of a news article I posted as if to suggest that the newspaper and I are very stupid to even comment on this in the first place.

[JMA]

I thought we want a serious discussion of issues here - not to suggest that:

1. I don't know that public money is being looted in Nigeria.
2. Outright dismissal of a news article I posted as if to suggest that the newspaper and I are very stupid to even comment on this in the first place.

KingJaja, do me a favour please... you are not speaking to a North American or a continental European... spare me the pretense of ignorance of the corruption levels in Nigeria (which are as out of control as some East European states).

Tranparency International (http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2013/results/) finds Nigeria 144 of 177 on the corruption scale... that makes it highly corrupt.

Now here is the immediate cash for fund job creation - if it can ever be recovered:

President Goodluck Jonathan orders inquiry into Nigeria’s ‘missing’ $20bn of oil revenue (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/president-goodluck-jonathan-orders-inquiry-into-nigerias-missing-20bn-of-oil-revenue-9190769.html)

Then here is a what could have been statement of the obvious - which maybe you have missed:

http://www.sebadamani.com/uploads/6/0/2/8/6028591/3761479_orig.jpg

Now given all that can you believe that both the US and UK give aid of around $250m each to Nigeria. Stupid is as stupid does.

[KingJaja]

KingJaja, do me a favour please... you are not speaking to a North American or a continental European... spare me the pretense of ignorance of the corruption levels in Nigeria (which are as out of control as some East European states).

Tranparency International (http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2013/results/) finds Nigeria 144 of 177 on the corruption scale... that makes it highly corrupt.

Now here is the immediate cash for fund job creation - if it can ever be recovered:

President Goodluck Jonathan orders inquiry into Nigeria’s ‘missing’ $20bn of oil revenue (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/president-goodluck-jonathan-orders-inquiry-into-nigerias-missing-20bn-of-oil-revenue-9190769.html)

Then here is a what could have been statement of the obvious - which maybe you have missed:

http://www.sebadamani.com/uploads/6/0/2/8/6028591/3761479_orig.jpg

Now given all that can you believe that both the US and UK give aid of around $250m each to Nigeria. Stupid is as stupid does.

No problem, I'm out of this discussion forum. It is a waste of my time.

[davidbfpo]

Only a week ago I posted on a prison break and the five hundred shot escaping (Post ) and 'same approach, no change here' is sadly all too true. Yes JMA it is Africa.

From AJ's sub-title:
At least 21 detainees shot dead during attempted escape from the cells of the secret police headquarters in Abuja.

Link:ww.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/03/nigerian-prisoners-killed-abuja-jailbreak-20143301832373181.html

Some more detail from the Nigerian website:http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/attempted-jailbreak-bloody-war-bharam-detainees-dss/

I've only did a short stint in a detention facility, but basic security was sadly neglected and what type of facility has armed staff inside? The Nigerian State Security Service's detention facility - stupid.:eek:

[KingJaja]

Very interesting lecture by Matthew Hassan Kukah (Catholic Bishop of Sokoto). He's also scholar who wrote a book on "Religion & Politics in Northern Nigeria".


After the defeat and following the exit of Sultan Attahiru, the burden of deciding the future for Islam rested in the hands of Muhammadu Buhari, the Waziri. In summary, three options were open to the rump of the caliphate. There were those who, like Onada above, believed that they would fight to the end and never surrender to the new conquerors. They believed that the caliphate could still be reclaimed and this is largely the lost glory that is being contested. Secondly, there were those who believed that some kind of cohabitation might be diplomatically worked out so that the religion could survive. Thirdly, there were those who believed that the new order should be supported and ways be explored to ensure a better future.

The Waziri, after advice from the scholars, decided to work out a modus vivendi with the colonial state. In his wisdom, he argued that since Lugard the conqueror had stated that all Muslims would be free to pray, pay Zakat and observe the Ramadan, there was no need for Hijra or continued fight. Since the caliphate had been founded as a home for Islam, the Waziri displayed some real diplomatic sagacity.

Amidst this dilemma, the Waziri received counsel to cooperate with the colonial state. According to a judge in Gwandu: The world is a house of distress…The Christians do not impede religion and the rites of Islam established in our land. Their goal is seeking for territory and the over lordship in worldly matters. As regards Islam, they do not hinder anyone from it, from Futa to here…This is our particular kind of friendship with them at present. We show regard to them with the tongue and have intercourse with them in the affairs of the world, but never love them in our heart nor adopt their religion[5]. From then till now, the battle over the perception of the role of Islam and the State has merely been shaped by circumstances, but the key issues have not changed. The feeling that this loss can be redressed and that we can return to these glory days resides deep down.

This is not the place for us to go into the details of this phase of protest. However, the significance of this reference lies in the fact that it helps us understand the origins of violence in northern Islam. But we need to make one passing remark as to how and why all this relates to the tensions between Islam and Christianity today.

- See more at: http://www.theadvocatengr.com/index.php/health/item/3150-after-the-insurgency-some-thoughts-on-reconciliation-in-nigeria-text-of-bishop-matthew-kukahs-lecture-at-unn#sthash.sr6aadBr.dpuf

[Stan]

No problem, I'm out of this discussion forum. It is a waste of my time.

Seems you do this an awful lot lately when faced with reality and skepticism from people who are well aware of African policy and leadership.

Better grow some thick skin as it is far from over.

The point being, Nigeria should be the flagship of a successful African nation. However, all most of us recall are the spamming emails about our dead uncles with cash in Nigeria.

Yes, it is a shame as there are literally 100s of thousands of Nigerians like you that go to work every day and deal with life there.

How many generations will it take to resolve the current impasse ?

[KingJaja]

Very sad news, site is about 15 minutes from central Abuja:


More than 70 people have been killed in two blasts that rocked a crowded bus station on the outskirts of Nigeria's capital, Abuja, officials say.

The blast happened as commuters were about to board buses and taxis to go to work in central Abuja, the BBC's Haruna Tangaza reports.

Eyewitnesses say there are dead bodies scattered around the area.

Suspicion immediately fell on the Boko Haram Islamist militant group, which has staged previous attacks in Abuja.

However, most of its attacks have been in the north-east of the country.

Abbas Idris, head of the Abuja Emergency Relief Agency, told the BBC that so far they have confirmed 71 people dead and 124 injured.

Police spokesman Frank Mba gave the same figures, adding that 16 luxury coaches and 24 minibuses had been destroyed.

Eyewitness Badamasi Nyanya said he had seen 40 bodies being evacuated; other eyewitnesses say they saw rescue workers and police gathering body parts.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27018751

[SWJ Blog]

Waging War in Nigeria, and Seeking New Battlegrounds (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/waging-war-in-nigeria-and-seeking-new-battlegrounds)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/waging-war-in-nigeria-and-seeking-new-battlegrounds) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[JMA]

While the TV news seems to be full of the abduction of 250 odd girls a few weeks ago it seems to have missed comment on SWC.

The US and Uk have promised to get involved:

U.S. to Send Team to Nigeria to Help Find Kidnapped Girls (http://time.com/89665/boko-haram-nigeria-girls/)


The Obama administration is dispatching military officials and hostage negotiators to Nigeria to aid in the recovery efforts of more than 250 girls kidnapped by the militant group Boko Haram, whose leader recently boasted "I will sell them in the market"

Nigeria abductions: UK experts to provide advice (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27316182)


The UK is to send a small team of experts to Nigeria to help over the abduction of more than 200 schoolgirls.

[omarali50]

I have a longish post about the broader implications of Boko Haram for "moderate Muslim" strategy and suchlike

http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/2014/05/boko-haramis-and-their-ilk.html?spref=tw

btw, Haramis means "bastards" in Urdu and related languages...

[ganulv]

Boko Haram is said to have exploited the efforts to recover the girls kidnapped from Chibok in their raid on the town of Gamboru Ngala. From the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/08/world/africa/islamist-militants-kill-hundreds-in-northeastern-nigeria.html?_r=0):


Dozens of militants wearing fatigues and wielding AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenade launchers descended on the town of Gamboru Ngala, chanting “Allahu akbar,” firing indiscriminately and torching houses. When it was over, at least 336 people had been killed and hundreds of houses and cars had been set on fire, said Waziri Hassan, who lives there, and Senator Ahmed Zanna. […] “Yesterday, people were still trying to pick up dead bodies,” Mr. Zanna said. “It’s really traumatizing.” The senator said the insurgents had used two armored personnel carriers stolen from the Nigerian military several months ago.Two APCs stolen from the Nigerian military? :confused:

[SWJ Blog]

What Gives Boko Haram its Strength (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/what-gives-boko-haram-its-strength)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/what-gives-boko-haram-its-strength) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

Having watched some US news reporting on the external reaction to the kidnapping of the school girls, I looked for some enlightenment.

A short CTC commentary:http://tinyurl.com/kzxr9bd

A commentary from the Oxford Research Group (ORG), gives a good background:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefing_papers_and_reports/internationalisation_boko_haram

An African observer's comment http://muslimsinafrica.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/reinvigorating-the-fight-against-boko-haram-professor-hussein-solomon/ that ends:
Abuja needs to capitalize on this and reinvigorate the fight against the Islamists once and for all. Instead, as I sit watching my television screen, I am filled with dismay as the Nigerian government offers to negotiate with Boko Haram. This constitutes a dereliction of duty – a betrayal of national trust – on the part of the Jonathan government.

I fear the girls are a "lost cause", after all they were kidnapped on the 14th April 2014. Western help, however discrete in country, I suspect will enhance Boko Harem's message. When will such help leave, or as ORG fear see mission creep or are the girls just pawns?

[davidbfpo]

In a somewhat unusual format of a cell-phone screen; the article starts with:
Was the Nigerian Military Complicit in the Chibok Abductions?
Experts on Boko Haram suggest that the kidnap of over 200 schoolgirls in northern Nigeria could not have been carried out without some degree of police or military cooperation.

Link:http://m.thinkafricapress.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fthinkafricapress.com%2Fnigeria%2 Fwas-nigerian-military-complicit-chibok-abductions-bring-back-our-girls%3Futm_source%3DMay%2B19%2B2014%2BEN%26utm_ca mpaign%3D5%252F19%252F2014%2Bupdate%26utm_medium%3 Demail#2672

[davidbfpo]

A taut analysis by RUSI's Rafaello Pantucci 'The Franchising of Boko Haram' and here is one passage:
Having claimed responsibility for attacks in areas traditionally dominated by Boko Haram whilst operating under a different name and ideology, Ansaru has further complicated Western efforts to gain an insight into the psyche of Islamic fundamentalism in Nigeria. Beyond this, the broader explosion in violent activity across northern Nigeria since 2012 reinforces the notion that Boko Haram has developed into a brand whose ‘franchise’ has been adopted by all sorts of other organisations. This makes an understanding of Boko Haram even more complicated, with the already opaque nature of the group lending itself well to an umbrella organisation to which anyone can attribute their actions.

Link:https://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A537A2AD166C3F/#.U3yuZnZZAdV

[KingJaja]

David,

Few points on Nigeria.

1. Important to understand Nigeria's politics & history to make sense of the dysfunction of the Nigerian state.

2. Nigeria has a long history of military rule, politicians don't want a well-equipped military - they plot coups.

3. When Obasanjo became president, he removed all "military officers who occupied political positions" - in addition he didn't fund the military well enough for 8 years.

4. Nigerian politicians prefer to keep the military weak, than risk overthrow - Shagari spent heavily on the military, he was overthrown.

5. The military has a large number of Northerners (officers & other ranks). Southern politicians are very weary of a powerful military - and by extension, a more powerful North. The military has been the major leverage the North has over the South.

6. All this led to the appalling state of the Nigerian Military.

7. Will this Chibok issue affect President Jonathan's chances of re-election? Depends on who he's contesting against. Regional tensions are rising, very different narratives on "who is benefiting from Boko Haram". Southerners insist "Northern politicians are benefiting". Northerners insist "Jonathan is benefiting from Boko Haram".

8. Nigeria is a very divided nation - & we might get to a 2007/08 style crisis (like in Kenya). The state is on the verge of failure, with the North fearful that loss of the oil-rich South will make them as poor as Mali.

9. Boko Haram might just succeed in destroying Nigeria, there is too much history of inter-ethnic/religious crisis & bloodshed for a united, nationalistic movement to arise to 'salvage Nigeria'.

10. I wish these girls be found & found alive & returned to their parents.

[davidbfpo]

KingJaja,

Thank you for your "on the ground" points.

I do wonder if however strong parts of Nigeria are reported here, such as the reforms made in Lagos and the emergence of a middle class, that the country is fundamentally vulnerable. The first historical example that came to mind was Yugoslavia, a federation held together by Tito in the communist era, which fell apart quickly and we know what followed then.

Some of those who worked in Nigeria before Boko Haram's return to the fore assert they advised their embassies that danger was ahead, only to be told no it was not.

A tactical question regarding the Nigerian state security institutions, given your remarks on the military. Would it make sense to create a new para-military force for the duration of the emergency, deployed in the north only?

Plus such possible innovations as a forensic laboratory in the Punjab, Pakistan, see post 440:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=8689&page=22

[KingJaja]

David,


KingJaja,

Thank you for your "on the ground" points.

I do wonder if however strong parts of Nigeria are reported here, such as the reforms made in Lagos and the emergence of a middle class, that the country is fundamentally vulnerable. The first historical example that came to mind was Yugoslavia, a federation held together by Tito in the communist era, which fell apart quickly and we know what followed then.

Some of those who worked in Nigeria before Boko Haram's return to the fore assert they advised their embassies that danger was ahead, only to be told no it was not.

A tactical question regarding the Nigerian state security institutions, given your remarks on the military. Would it make sense to create a new para-military force for the duration of the emergency, deployed in the north only?

Plus such possible innovations as a forensic laboratory in the Punjab, Pakistan, see post 440:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=8689&page=22
13 Hours Ago 01:46 AM

1. For some reason, Boko Haram hasn't extended beyond the border established between Northern & Southern Nigeria established by Lugard. This makes some people suspect that there are some political undertones to Boko Haram - i.e. "their Northern sponsors" don't want "their business interests in Southern Nigeria to be affected".

2. Beyond that, Nigeria looks a lot more like two countries - large swathes of the North and Middle Belt are in crisis, but it has had very little impact on the price of food in the Lagos - I live in Lagos.

3. So foreign embassies aren't too bothered about their citizen's safety in Lagos - where an overwhelming majority on expatriates go or the Niger Delta (where the rest go - risks are manageable there, kidnappers want money).

4. About the "middle class", yes it exists - but is very fragile & unemployment is a massive challenge right now. It is worse than Spain or Greece.

5. Nigeria could go the way of Yugoslavia, there are fundamental disagreements between the Northern and Southern elite over issues such as land use, resource control, devolution of powers and the internal architecture of the Nigerian state. The North wants things pretty as much as they are, but the South wants fundamental changes.

6. The North - or at least key parts of it, is likely to be 20 years behind the South. Literacy & immunization rates are appalling, investment is declining - many Southern businessmen (a key part of the Northern economy) are closing shop & moving their businesses down South. In addition, there is a massive migration of Northerners down South to seek employment/opportunities.

7. Many analysts miss this out - there's also a class struggle going on in the North & Boko Haram in some way, is an expression of this class struggle. The Northern elite, which governed Nigeria for 35 plus years did very little to improve human capital in the North - they preferred to keep the feudal system (perfected by Lugard) intact.

8. So we might be seeing some manifestation of Robert Kaplan's "revenge of the poor" in Northern Nigeria - local elite will be challenged by the underclasses & the elite will transfer this blame to the center in Abuja - & that narrative will be eagerly gobbled up by most Western analysts.

9. Southerners will watch these events & find it difficult to make head or tail out of them - since the language of Islam will be used - it will be seen as a threat to their existence. Already fraying bonds will weaken.

10. Northern Nigeria is at the weakest point ever - since Nigeria's independence. And if they don't win the next elections & the generation that took over Nigeria in 1966 gradually die out - all bets are off.

11. Nigeria cannot continue as presently constituted - but the political elite are well practiced in the art of "muddling through" situations - I'm not sure they can pull this off, even the army looks a lot weaker than it was in the past.

[davidbfpo]

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/75007000/gif/_75007844_civilian_death_in_boko_624_update_v3.gif

From a slightly long BBC News item:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27547214

[JMA]

I hear all the time what the problems are but never hear any solutions.

I personally think these 'problems' will only be addressed by the Chinese when they take over.


David,

1. For some reason, Boko Haram hasn't extended beyond the border established between Northern & Southern Nigeria established by Lugard. This makes some people suspect that there are some political undertones to Boko Haram - i.e. "their Northern sponsors" don't want "their business interests in Southern Nigeria to be affected".

2. Beyond that, Nigeria looks a lot more like two countries - large swathes of the North and Middle Belt are in crisis, but it has had very little impact on the price of food in the Lagos - I live in Lagos.

3. So foreign embassies aren't too bothered about their citizen's safety in Lagos - where an overwhelming majority on expatriates go or the Niger Delta (where the rest go - risks are manageable there, kidnappers want money).

4. About the "middle class", yes it exists - but is very fragile & unemployment is a massive challenge right now. It is worse than Spain or Greece.

5. Nigeria could go the way of Yugoslavia, there are fundamental disagreements between the Northern and Southern elite over issues such as land use, resource control, devolution of powers and the internal architecture of the Nigerian state. The North wants things pretty as much as they are, but the South wants fundamental changes.

6. The North - or at least key parts of it, is likely to be 20 years behind the South. Literacy & immunization rates are appalling, investment is declining - many Southern businessmen (a key part of the Northern economy) are closing shop & moving their businesses down South. In addition, there is a massive migration of Northerners down South to seek employment/opportunities.

7. Many analysts miss this out - there's also a class struggle going on in the North & Boko Haram in some way, is an expression of this class struggle. The Northern elite, which governed Nigeria for 35 plus years did very little to improve human capital in the North - they preferred to keep the feudal system (perfected by Lugard) intact.

8. So we might be seeing some manifestation of Robert Kaplan's "revenge of the poor" in Northern Nigeria - local elite will be challenged by the underclasses & the elite will transfer this blame to the center in Abuja - & that narrative will be eagerly gobbled up by most Western analysts.

9. Southerners will watch these events & find it difficult to make head or tail out of them - since the language of Islam will be used - it will be seen as a threat to their existence. Already fraying bonds will weaken.

10. Northern Nigeria is at the weakest point ever - since Nigeria's independence. And if they don't win the next elections & the generation that took over Nigeria in 1966 gradually die out - all bets are off.

11. Nigeria cannot continue as presently constituted - but the political elite are well practiced in the art of "muddling through" situations - I'm not sure they can pull this off, even the army looks a lot weaker than it was in the past.

[Dayuhan]

I personally think these 'problems' will only be addressed by the Chinese when they take over.

I'm sure China's rivals would love to see them walk in there and smack that tar baby, but do you really think they'll oblige? They are not geniuses, but I think they are smart enough not to repeat the white man's folly. I think they have very little interest in taking over and no interest at all in solving problems: they'll cut deals with whoever's in power, extract all they can, and move on when things fall apart.

[JMA]

Oh you again...

Yes that is where the Chinese are different to the Brtis and French in their modus operandi but there will come a time when they just can't stand by and let their 'investments' be threatened.

A hint for you on where to educate yourself on the watershed moment for China betweeh arms length almost risk free use of bribery to gain access to natural resources (and increasingly land) and the need to get involved in peace and security actions to protect their often substantial investments is South Sudan (with more to follow).

There is a lot going on here - in Africa - as no doubt in your neck of the woods and my best advice remains that you (and others) make sure your children learn Mandarin Chinese with the first word being 'boss'.


I'm sure China's rivals would love to see them walk in there and smack that tar baby, but do you really think they'll oblige? They are not geniuses, but I think they are smart enough not to repeat the white man's folly. I think they have very little interest in taking over and no interest at all in solving problems: they'll cut deals with whoever's in power, extract all they can, and move on when things fall apart.

[Dayuhan]

Yes that is where the Chinese are different to the Brtis and French in their modus operandi but there will come a time when they just can't stand by and let their 'investments' be threatened.

A hint for you on where to educate yourself on the watershed moment for China betweeh arms length almost risk free use of bribery to gain access to natural resources (and increasingly land) and the need to get involved in peace and security actions to protect their often substantial investments is South Sudan (with more to follow).

So far the Chinese approach has been to extract as much and as fast as possible with little effort to meddle in what passes for governance and no effort at all to solve any problems that aren't their own. That may of course change, if investments are threatened. When that happens, the Chinese may do what the Westerners have traditionally not done: weigh the value of the investment against the cost of "peace and security actions", which of course have less to do with peace or security than with securing investments, not necessarily the same thing.

Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder. If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war. I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.


There is a lot going on here - in Africa - as no doubt in your neck of the woods and my best advice remains that you (and others) make sure your children learn Mandarin Chinese with the first word being 'boss'.

An ironic prediction, given the rather intense interest of so many Chinese in learning English and establishing any pied a terre they can outside China. Given the depth and breadth of China's domestic issues, the image of the all conquering Chinese juggernaut doesn't really hold up very well. The rest of the world is as likely to face the problem of a Chinese implosion (which would be a big problem) as it is to have to manage Chinese dominance.

Probably straying onto the territory of the "China's Expanding Role..." thread, but so it goes.

[ganulv]

Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder. If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war. I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.

The PRC was a supporter of UNITA and they are presently contributing to MINUSMA (https://www.flickr.com/search/?w=94969467@N08&q=chinese). But I take your meaning that they have not made any OEF scale commitments.

[Dayuhan]

The PRC was a supporter of UNITA and they are presently contributing to MINUSMA (https://www.flickr.com/search/?w=94969467@N08&q=chinese). But I take your meaning that they have not made any OEF scale commitments.

World of difference between slipping some money and goods to insurgents whose cause aligns with your perceived interests and trying to suppress an insurgency and/or sustain a government to support your own investments.

[ganulv]

World of difference between slipping some money and goods to insurgents whose cause aligns with your perceived interests and trying to suppress an insurgency and/or sustain a government to support your own investments.

I don’t disagree with you there at all. I just wanted to point out that the PRC isn’t entirely new to the small wars game in Africa—they have dabbled.

[JMA]

So far the Chinese approach has been to extract as much and as fast as possible with little effort to meddle in what passes for governance and no effort at all to solve any problems that aren't their own.

So far maybe, but when they get into exploiting 50-100 year lifespan mines then your theory falls on its a...

I believe you argue for the sake of it.


That may of course change, if investments are threatened. Wow, now you are moving closer to reality.


When that happens, the Chinese may do what the Westerners have traditionally not done: weigh the value of the investment against the cost of "peace and security actions", which of course have less to do with peace or security than with securing investments, not necessarily the same thing.Pure semantics (and a nebulous argument).

As I stated watch what happens in South Sudan - with oil - and elsewhere with other longterm investments.

For your edification peace and security are vital for an uninterupted flow of mining and the export of mined content. But then again you are just arguing for the sake of it.


Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder. Sounds good in theory but you discount the knock-on effect of the loss of the mined resources to the processing industries back in China.


If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war. Why? Just because the current and recent major powers scewed up small wars does that mean that the Chinese will be dumb enough to make the same mistakes? You are not producing a logical argument.


I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.So you really do think the Chinese are as dumb as the Brits, French and Americans when it comes to small wars.


An ironic prediction, given the rather intense interest of so many Chinese in learning English and establishing any pied a terre they can outside China. You don't understand sarcasm do you? But then again if you believe that the Chinese migration is not a harbinger of more to come then I can't help you.


Given the depth and breadth of China's domestic issues, the image of the all conquering Chinese juggernaut doesn't really hold up very well. The rest of the world is as likely to face the problem of a Chinese implosion (which would be a big problem) as it is to have to manage Chinese dominance.

Is that your argument to 'do nothing'? You are very predictable ... and mostly wrong as a result.


Probably straying onto the territory of the "China's Expanding Role..." thread, but so it goes.Glad you are not a moderator around here. Please do a liitle research and establish the level of Chinese migration is already seen by many Nigerians as problematic. Really Steve you can't continue to post such nonsense.

[KingJaja]

A few thoughts.

Today, it is fashionable to treat organisations as franchisees of Al Qaeda. I don't think that's the only way to look at Islamist terrorism in Africa.

I think Al Qaeda made the idea of violent jihad more attractive. The Kanuri members of Boko Haram don't have to look up to Osama Bin Ladin as an example of a jihadi - they have Muhammad Al-Kanemi (1776–1837). Similarly, the Hausa/Fulani jihadis have Usmanu Dan Fodio (1754 - 1817).

There's a lot of history to ponder over - Osama just showed them "it could be done", but many young men aspire to be the next Dan Fodio or Al-Kanemi.

[Dayuhan]

So far maybe, but when they get into exploiting 50-100 year lifespan mines then your theory falls on its a...

That's why I said "so far". The past doesn't tell us what the Chinese will do in the future. It does give us some indication of their preferred methods. That of course may change, but it's a starting point.


As I stated watch what happens in South Sudan - with oil - and elsewhere with other longterm investments.

For your edification peace and security are vital for an uninterrupted flow of mining and the export of mined content. But then again you are just arguing for the sake of it.

That comes down to a cost calculation: the cost of maintaining peace and security vs the cost of writing off the investment and replacing the resources with those acquired somewhere else. Western powers have often messed up this calculation by grossly underestimating the cost of achieving and maintaining peace and security, a mistake the Chinese might repeat, and by confounding the calculation with ideas about democracy, human rights, and other variations on the archaic "white man's burden" theme. That is a mistake the Chinese are a lot less likely to make.


Sounds good in theory but you discount the knock-on effect of the loss of the mined resources to the processing industries back in China.

Only relevant if the resources cannot be replaced by similar resources from another source. Generally they can be: there are very few, if any, really unique single-source resources.


Why? Just because the current and recent major powers scewed up small wars does that mean that the Chinese will be dumb enough to make the same mistakes? You are not producing a logical argument.

The first and foremost mistake is going into a war that makes no economic sense - where the cost of achieving the goals exceeds the value of the goals - or where the probability of success is low from the start. The Chinese may or may not be more ruthless and more rational than the Western powers in such calculations: they are in no way immune to ego, pride, or any of the other eccentricities that lead people to stick themselves into places better avoided.

I don't see the neocolonial small wars of the West as enterprises that could have worked out if only they were "done right". There are things better not done, and trying to take over another country and run it for your own benefit is one of them. The age for such things is long gone.


So you really do think the Chinese are as dumb as the Brits, French and Americans when it comes to small wars.

We may find out one day. I don't think the possibility of China taking on a small war in Africa is something the US or "the West" should fear, and I see no reason to assume they'll be any better at it than anyone else has been. Their evident reluctance to take on such roles to date does suggest that they at least appreciate the costs and risks.


But then again if you believe that the Chinese migration is not a harbinger of more to come then I can't help you.

I do think it's a harbinger of things to come: a whole lot more Chinese will be looking to get out. I do not think they are going to be conquering all before them and reducing the rest of us to vassalhood.


Is that your argument to 'do nothing'? You are very predictable ... and mostly wrong as a result.

Do nothing about what? If you mean about Chinese involvement in Africa, why would we want to "do something" about it? Not our business if Africans want to do business with Chinese, and in many cases it works to the benefit of the US and the West.


Glad you are not a moderator around here. Please do a liitle research and establish the level of Chinese migration is already seen by many Nigerians as problematic.

The discussion has gone way outside anything specific to Nigeria, and seems more relevant to the generic "Chinese involvement in Africa" thread. In any case the probability of China taking over Nigeria seems exceedingly remote, and the probability of China solving any of Nigeria's problems - or trying to - approaches zero.

[Dayuhan]

Today, it is fashionable to treat organisations as franchisees of Al Qaeda. I don't think that's the only way to look at Islamist terrorism in Africa.

That fashion has been active for a while... Southeast Asian terror organizations have been referred to as "Al Qaeda Franchises" since not long after 9/11. I think it's just a device used by lazy people who don't want to bother trying to understand various regional realities. The "franchise" idea sounds nice and neat, as if there's a coherent organizational chart somewhere with everybody in a nice clean pigeonhole... it just doesn't connect very well to reality.

[KingJaja]

That fashion has been active for a while... Southeast Asian terror organizations have been referred to as "Al Qaeda Franchises" since not long after 9/11. I think it's just a device used by lazy people who don't want to bother trying to understand various regional realities. The "franchise" idea sounds nice and neat, as if there's a coherent organizational chart somewhere with everybody in a nice clean pigeonhole... it just doesn't connect very well to reality.

Evangelical pastors in Africa aren't referred to as "Billy Graham franchisees" . Very lazy way of looking at this phenomena which is just as religious as Evangelical Christianity.

We in Nigeria know that a Sufi influenced Islam was overshadowed by a Salafist Izala Movement which prepared the ground for violent Salafist organisations like Boko Haram.

[Dayuhan]

Very lazy way of looking at this phenomena which is just as religious as Evangelical Christianity.

Lazy I think is the operative word... Al Qaeda "linked" movement around the world exhibit a huge diversity, both in the degree of "linkage" ad in their nature, which ranges form the purely religious through nationalist, tribal, profit-oriented, etc. Calling them "Al Qaeda franchises" lets people sidestep the burden of actually trying to understand any given group.

[davidbfpo]

A few minutes the adverts that appear in the top right of my VDU screen showed an odd picture of a smiling African army officer, with the bylyine '54 Ways to Upport Our Troops' and linked to this website:http://www.ipaidabribenaija.com/news/general/item/96576-54-ways-to-support-our-troops?gclid=COTO74uD074CFanpwgod75QAoA

This story appears genuine.

The first time I clicked the advert, which puzzled me, I had another website appear for a quite different service offering free webcam access:http://www.thefreecamsecret.com/ap/?DF=0&AFNO=1-0-634091-341541&UHNSMTY=303&jntp=np&stno=1-773-851-3143-1973-1919&sanp=adc

[SWJ Blog]

Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/corruption-hampers-fight-against-boko-haram)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/corruption-hampers-fight-against-boko-haram) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[SWJ Blog]

Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/corruption-hampers-fight-against-boko-haram)

Which explains a lot!



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/corruption-hampers-fight-against-boko-haram) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).

[JMA]

David, as I have said before the only reason way Nigerian troops need such support is because the national defense budget has already been looted by the politicians and the generals. The civilians have already paid .... Why do they need to pay again?


A few minutes the adverts that appear in the top right of my VDU screen showed an odd picture of a smiling African army officer, with the bylyine '54 Ways to Upport Our Troops' and linked to this website:http://www.ipaidabribenaija.com/news/general/item/96576-54-ways-to-support-our-troops?gclid=COTO74uD074CFanpwgod75QAoA

This story appears genuine.

The first time I clicked the advert, which puzzled me, I had another website appear for a quite different service offering free webcam access:http://www.thefreecamsecret.com/ap/?DF=0&AFNO=1-0-634091-341541&UHNSMTY=303&jntp=np&stno=1-773-851-3143-1973-1919&sanp=adc

[Dayuhan]

Looks like they are doing more than just looting the budget...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/nigerian-generals-officers-found-guilty-of-aiding-boko-haram-report/article18959056/


Nigerian generals, officers found guilty of aiding Boko Haram: report

Ten generals and five other senior military officers were found guilty in courts-martial of providing arms and information to Boko Haram extremists, a leading Nigerian newspaper reported Tuesday...

[KingJaja]

Dayuhan,

There are Boko Haram sympathizers in the Nigerian military - just like there are Taliban sympathizers in the ISI.

[ganulv]

There are Boko Haram sympathizers in the Nigerian military - just like there are Taliban sympathizers in the ISI.
But the ISI would appear to be providing arms and information to the Taliban as a part of official policy. What the Nigerian officers have been convicted of doing looks like a horse of a different color.

[KingJaja]

This is what I was really afraid of.

NB: This part of Nigeria isn't known for Muslim/Christian clashes. This is what Boko Haram will eventually lead to - 1. Reprisal attacks by Christians 2. Formation of Christian militias 3. "Lebanonization" or the situation in Central African Republic being repeated.

Entirely predictable. The legitimacy of the state is being challenged.


At least 100 people have been killed in religious riots in Attagara, Aghapalwa and Gwoshe border communities in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State.

Christians and Muslims have been killing each other over series of attacks by the Islamic militants, Boko Haram.

No fewer than nine Christian worshippers were said to have been killed last Sunday by the Islamic militants during a service in Attagara village with many others critically injured.

According to reports, the youths in a spontaneous reprisal mobilised themselves and went after the terrorists, killing 37 of them.

However, following the reprisal, sources said some Muslim youths felt the Christian youths did not attack Boko Haram but other Muslims whom they alleged were members of the sect who had attacked and killed Christians and burnt their churches in Attagara Village.

Revenge attacks against the Christian youths led to the burning of the whole village and killing of over 100 villagers.

An elder and member of the community, Ahmed Mohammed Ahmed, told journalists in Maiduguri that Boko Haram members came about 1a.m., attacking the villages as a punishment for killing their members who had earlier attacked churches and communities in the area.

He, however, said that most of the villages in Gwoza were now divided along religious lines, as Christians living among Muslims had fled their homes to relocate to Christian dominated areas.

Muslims, living in areas dominated by Christians have also fled to Muslim dominated areas.

http://skytrendnews.com/index.php/news/cover/2251-muslims-christians-riot-over-b-haram-attacks-in-borno-100-massacred

[KingJaja]

But the ISI would appear to be providing arms and information to the Taliban as a part of official policy. What the Nigerian officers have been convicted of doing looks like a horse of a different color.

I'm telling you that certain Nigerian Army officers aren't supporting Boko Haram for money.

We had an attack on the Command & Staff College two years back - the Church on the premises was attacked. Some senior officers (Christians) lost their lives.

The ethno/religious balance in Nigeria is very delicate, so not everything makes it to front page news. Let me intimate you on the following facts:

1. Local communities support Boko Haram - this support is not insignificant.
2. Some in the military support Boko Haram - not for money, but for ideological/religious purposes - and with a military with significant numbers of Muslim officers & rank & file, this is a difficult problem to solve.

Not everything is "politically correct" to say.

[AdamG]

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria (AP) — Boko Haram militants dressed as soldiers slaughtered at least 200 civilians in three villages in northeastern Nigeria and the military failed to intervene even though it was warned that an attack was imminent, witnesses said on Thursday.

A community leader who witnessed the killings on Monday said residents of the Gwoza local government district in Borno state had pleaded for the military to send soldiers to protect the area after they heard that militants were about to attack, but help didn't arrive. The killings occurred in Danjara, Agapalwa, and Antagara.

http://news.yahoo.com/witnesses-boko-haram-militants-slaughter-hundreds-102214122.html

[KingJaja]

More worrying news from North East Nigeria.

PS: Gombe hasn't witnessed much violence from Boko Haram - this is very troubling.


* Death count from earlier attacks reaches 110 - leaders

* Fleeing villagers stranded, short of food - senator

* Boko Haram has killed thousands, targeting civilians (Recasts)

By Isaac Abrak and Lanre Ola

ABUJA/MAIDUGURI, Nigeria, June 8 (Reuters) - A female suicide bomber killed herself and a soldier outside an army barracks in Nigeria's northeastern city of Gombe on Sunday, the military said, as local leaders reported the death count from a string of earlier militant attacks had reached 110.

No one claimed responsibility for the blast or last week's assaults but Islamist group Boko Haram has set off bombs and killed thousands in its five-year-old bid to carve out an Islamist state in the region.

Soldiers stopped the woman as she tried to get into the barracks with explosives hidden under her robes, defence headquarters said in a statement.

The device went off, killing her and a soldier searching her, it added. "I heard a loud sound and then black smoke covering the place ... We saw soldiers moving bodies," Gombe trader Bello Kasuwankatako told Reuters.

Witnesses had earlier said between three and five people died.

Boko Haram - which dominated world headlines by kidnapping more than 200 schoolgirls in April - has fought back against an army offensive, piling political pressure on President Goodluck Jonathan and the military to end the carnage.

Leaders from Gombe's neighbouring state of Borno told journalists on Sunday they had now buried 110 bodies from attacks on nine villages early last week - giving the first detailed breakdown on the casualties.

"It was a great tragedy. There are still corpses lying in the bushes surrounding the communities. Many of our people that fled to the top of the hills during and after the attacks are still there and now stranded," said Ali Ndume, a senator representing southern Borno.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/08/nigeria-violence-idINL5N0OP0Q220140608

[KingJaja]

Important warning from Nigeria's top Catholic. If Nigeria's top Catholic cardinal is of the opinion that Boko Haram has infiltrated the Military. Then imagine what ordinary Nigerians think.


Abuja (Agenzia Fides) - "The problem of Boko Haram threatens to undermine the unity of the Nigerian armed forces, especially if one gets to the point of interpreting what is happening in northern Nigeria as a religious clash between Christians and Muslims", says Cardinal John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan, Archbishop of Abuja to Fides Agency.

The local press reports that a dozen senior officers and several enlisted men were convicted by a martial court for having supplied arms and ammunition to Boko Haram. "Some newspapers have published the news citing military sources, but the high command of the Armed Forces has denied the news" says Cardinal Onaiyekan. "I am sure that with time we will know the truth. It is clear, however, that there are Boko Haram sympathizers within the army. It is difficult, however, to quantify how many there are".

"My fear - the Cardinal continues - is that the campaign against Boko Haram is seen as an attack against Islam. Now this is what Boko Haram simply wants. Unfortunately, even among Christians there are those who tend to present the fight against Boko Haram as a clash between Christians and Muslims. It is a very dangerous vision, which could undermine the unity of the police. In the army you have Christians and Muslims who have hitherto acted together, as soldiers of our armed forces".

http://www.fides.org/en/news/35852-AFRICA_NIGERIA_Boko_Haram_threatens_the_unity_of_t he_army_says_Cardinal_Onaiyekan_to_Fides

[KingJaja]

Nigeria apparently plans to use the "Sri Lankan method" to deal with Boko Haram. Anyway, this "method" was deployed during Nigeria's civil war - which resulted in 1 million dead (conservative estimate).


To crush Boko Haram insurgents, Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters last week declared it would employ the “Sri Lankan method.”

It’s hard to imagine a worse idea.

Boko Haram’s brutal campaign in northern Nigeria demands urgent action to protect the civilian population. The militant Islamist group’s atrocities have killed thousands and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes, sparking a humanitarian crisis in Nigeria’s northeast and across national borders. Boko Haram’s April kidnapping of nearly 300 schoolgirls has dramatically increased international attention on the problem and pressure on the government to resolve it.

But, before opting for “the Sri-Lankan method” to deal with an insurgency, Nigeria would do well to examine what that actually means.

Sri Lanka's war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), particularly in its final stages in 2009, caused tremendous and unnecessary human suffering. As the noose tightened around the insurgents – who were, like Boko Haram, responsible for numerous horrific abuses – nearly 300,000 civilians held as human shields by the LTTE became increasingly squeezed into a tiny area with little food or medicine. The military repeatedly and indiscriminately shelled the area, including a government-declared "no-fire zone" and hospitals trying to care for the sick and wounded.

http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/06/16/dispatches-40000-reasons-why-sri-lanka-no-model-nigeria

Any comments? Any reason to believe that this method will "work" in Nigeria?

[JMA]

This FP article is germaine to this discussion:

VOICE : Why Are Africa's Militaries So Disappointingly Bad? (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/06/why_are_africa_s_militaries_so_disappointingly_bad _kenya_nigeria_boko_haram_al_shabab)


... both armies have botched key domestic interventions when crises hit, exposing weaknesses that raise fundamental question marks about operational reliability.

and this:


"The West has this model of a disciplined, neutral army that stands on the sidelines, independent of domestic politics," explains Jakkie Cilliers of the Pretoria-based Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS). "But the African model is of a military that is used internally and is part and parcel of domestic politics and resource allocation."

The question really revolves arround what military operations are possible within the capabilities of the respective armies.

(This post has also been made in the latest Kenya thread)

[davidbfpo]

Africa Confidential is a longstanding private, London-based newsletter and rather unusually has allowed its latest commentary on Nigeria to be cited in full:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/africa-confidential/jonathan-faces-north

The sub-title gives a clue:
After two months in the global spotlight, the insurgency in northern Nigeria is fast turning into a national political crisis

The main part is on the politics of succession, although minus when the next scheduled presidential election is.

[JMA]

Nigerians Despair as Search for Girls Stalls (http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-search-for-girls-disappoints-nigerians-1403133926)


"We can't go and kill our girls in the name of trying to get them back," Nigeria's defense chief, Alex Barde, told a crowd protesting the government's response to the abduction in May. Commanders face more basic challenges, including disgruntled troops and equipment shortages.

Did anyone really believe the lie that the Nigerian military knew where the girls were - within a few kilometres or so - but the risk of rescue was too great?

That is still the line it seems. The truth is that the Nigerian military is operationally and logistically incapable of any military action in this regard even if they know where the girls are.

The fate of 223 girls is nothing against having to admit that their military is incapable and simply not up to the task.

In the post colonial era it is better to let the girls just disappear than to ask for help from the US or ex-colonial powers to do what their own military is incapable of doing.

Such are the realities of Africa.

[KingJaja]

David,


Africa Confidential is a longstanding private, London-based newsletter and rather unusually has allowed its latest commentary on Nigeria to be cited in full:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...an-faces-north

The sub-title gives a clue:
Quote:
After two months in the global spotlight, the insurgency in northern Nigeria is fast turning into a national political crisis
The main part is on the politics of succession, although minus when the next scheduled presidential election is.

A few points.

1. The British have never hid their preference for a blue-blooded Fulani aristocrat to govern Nigeria, failing that - anyone from the North.

2. What is the "North"? Western analysts often fail to realize that a significant Christian population is part of the "North" - they will find that out next elections.

3. Assuming Jonathan is removed "via a coup" - is the Niger Delta (where he comes from) supposed to sit idly by & twiddle their thumbs? They have 5,000km of pipelines - they can easily blow up a few and cripple Nigeria's economy.

4. This "analysis" is nonsensical. Those of us who live in Nigeria know that. It reflects the desires of Oxbridge-educated British diplomats who have deep personal ties with the North (from the days of Lugard in the North) - not Nigeria's current realities.

[omarali50]

This does sound like one of those trial balloons put out by Western think tanks or intelligence agences to foist some new idiot on the people in the name of stability and better governance. Western diplomats and intel agencies used to support that every 10 years in Pakistan too...and may do so again if the next Sherard Cowper-Coles has his way..

[SWJ Blog]

Nigeria Military Studies Sri Lankan Tactics for Use Against Boko Haram (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/nigeria-military-studies-sri-lankan-tactics-for-use-against-boko-haram)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/nigeria-military-studies-sri-lankan-tactics-for-use-against-boko-haram) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

Conflicting media reports, but government agencies deny there was a bomb blast - attribute it to "gas explosion".

Some media reports suggest a "female suicide bomber". If media reports are true, then it is a very dangerous first - the first suicide bombing in Southern Nigeria, or possibly the first Boko Haram foray south of the "Lugard line".

Very dangerous precedent.

The wreck of the vehicle is shown in the following link. Any explosive ordnance specialists here? Does this look like a car bomb or a "gas explosion"?

http://www.thecable.ng/blast-kills-3-at-folawiyo-tank-farm-in-lagos/

[davidbfpo]

KingJaJa in Post 100 referred to a HRW report on the Nigerian military looking at the Sri Lankan option; this was followed up by an exchange on SWJ Blog:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/nigeria-military-studies-sri-lankan-tactics-for-use-against-boko-haram

[JMA]

1 suspect held, 1 killed after deadly Nigeria bomb blast (http://news.yahoo.com/bomb-blast-nigeria-capital-kills-21-wounds-17-172053391.html)


"The casualty figure for now is 21 persons dead, 17 injured," national police spokesman Frank Mba said, adding that a suspect had been arrested.

Later the National Information Centre said a second suspect had been shot dead by troops as he tried to escape on a motorbike.

Senior government spokesman Mike Omeri confirmed that the blast was the result of "a bomb attack".

Things are hotting-up in Nigeria!

[KingJaja]

Interesting story.


(Reuters) - When Washington imposed sanctions in June 2012 on Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, he dismissed it as an empty gesture.

Two years later, Shekau’s skepticism appears well founded: his Islamic militant group is now the biggest security threat to Africa's top oil producer, is richer than ever, more violent and its abductions of women and children continue with impunity.

As the United States, Nigeria and others struggle to track and choke off its funding, Reuters interviews with more than a dozen current and former U.S. officials who closely follow Boko Haram provide the most complete picture to date of how the group finances its activities.

Central to the militant group’s approach includes using hard-to-track human couriers to move cash, relying on local funding sources and engaging in only limited financial relationships with other extremists groups. It also has reaped millions from high-profile kidnappings.

"Our suspicions are that they are surviving on very lucrative criminal activities that involve kidnappings," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in an interview.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/01/us-usa-nigeria-bokoharam-insight-idUSKBN0F636920140701

[KingJaja]

This is the first Boko Haram (or whoever) operation below the "Lugard line" (boundary between historical North & Southern Nigerian protectorate).

The significance of this attack cannot be underestimated. The Nigerian government covered it up, because the likely consequences (massive reprisal killings against Northerners in Lagos), would be too much for Nigeria to handle.

The "cat is out of the bag". An AFP investigation points to a bomb blast in Lagos (and possibly a suicide bomber).


But AFP has seen photographs of the scene showing a destroyed car plus damage to surrounding vehicles, which the British Army's former head of bomb disposal said left no doubt as to the cause.

"This was definitely an incident involving the use of high explosives," Bob Seddon, an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran and a specialist in improvised explosive devices (IEDs), told AFP in an email exchange after reviewing the images.

"The type of blast effects and fragmentation pattern you would get from a gas explosion are quite different," the former Royal Logistics Corps colonel said, assessing that 25-50 kilos (55-110 pounds) of improvised high explosive were used.

Senior foreign diplomats also indicated privately that the blast was deliberate, attributing the official denials to fears over the potential effects of a confirmed first attack on Lagos, which drives the country's economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/lagos-fuel-depot-blast-no-accident-experts-witnesses-032353233.html

[davidbfpo]

A short article 'Talking to Boko Haram' on a Swiss blogsite makes interesting reading:http://www.offiziere.ch/?p=17101

Hopelessly optimstic IMHO, but dialogue is possible - as Northern Ireland and South Africa illustrate.

[KingJaja]

Davidbfpo,

Hopelessly optimistic. Boko Haram is as incoherent and illogical as Joseph Kony. Very few grounds for negotiation or dialogue.

[KingJaja]

Nobody outside Nigeria seems to figure out the significance of this attack. I've been shouting myself hoarse that a critical "red line" has been crossed.

Nobody is paying attention.


Lagos (AFP) - The head of Nigeria's Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for a bombing in the capital Abuja and an attack hours later in Lagos which the authorities tried to cover up, in a video obtained by AFP Sunday.

In the 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau also voices support for the extremist Sunni Islamic State (IS) militants who have taken over large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria.

He mocks the social media and protest campaign Bring Back Our Girls, which emerged after the Islamists kidnapped more than 200 schoolgirls on April 14 from the remote northeastern town of Chibok.

The girls, whose abduction has drawn unprecedented attention to Boko Haram's five-year rebellion, are not pictured in the video, which was given to AFP through similar channels as past messages.

One previous recording showed more than 100 of the hostages, some of whom are Christian, reciting Muslim prayers.

Shekau also said his loyalists carried out twin car bombings in May in the central city of Jos and a June attack at a public health college in the northern city of Kano.

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/24448786/boko-haram-chief-claims-lagos-abuja-attacks-in-new-video/

As you can see from this map, Lagos is very far away from Nigeria's North East. If Boko Haram can strike Lagos - the consequences are what I'll discuss (at length) when I have the time.

http://informationng.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/lagos-map-woyr.gif

[JMA]

Nobody outside Nigeria seems to figure out the significance of this attack. I've been shouting myself hoarse that a critical "red line" has been crossed.

Nobody is paying attention.

...but nothing has happened yet!

Is there any sogn of northerners leaving the South in anticipation of reprisals? But I agree could start anytime.

[KingJaja]

Interesting paper on Northern Nigeria - addresses complexities that are glossed over by Western Media.


Northern Nigeria is witnessing an upheaval in its political and social space. Since the country’s return
to democracy in 1999 a growing number of actors, groups and movements have emanated from
the region, all purporting to speak for and represent the best interests of its people. The different
and often clashing voices that have emerged from the north include elements of the political
establishment, opposition, youth and civil society. At the very far end of the spectrum, it also includes
the bellicose voice of a violent insurgency from the northeast corner that is hostile towards the
Nigerian state and threatening to wreck the stability and security of the entire region. The ongoing
struggle for greater influence, inclusion, accountability and representation in northern Nigeria is
central to understanding transformations in the region’s politics, especially in the context of its
security challenges and a looming general election in 2015

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20140703NorthernNigeriaHoffmann.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Rather oddly a report from Xinhua, the Chinese official news agency:
Police in Nigeria have arrested Mohammed Zakari, a senior commander of the Boko Haram sect....The suspect was arrested on Saturday following a massive onslaught by security forces against the activities of insurgents in the Balmo forest in Bauchi State in the northeast.....arrested while fleeing from intensive counter insurgency operations around the forest.



Link:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2014-07/16/c_126757364.htm


Checked on Google and there are many other reports on the arrest, all citing the official police spokesman; such as this Nigerian report:http://leadership.ng/news/377902/police-arrest-fleeing-boko-harams-chief-butcher

[KingJaja]

Very interesting.


How is it possible for US military and intelligence sources on the ground, both in Iraq and Syria, to have missed the Islamic State group amassing its forces and invading Iraq? It is anyone's guess. But it's a disastrous oversight by any standard. The same applies to Nigeria, with the US and other western nations having woken up to the reality of the Boko Haram threat only when the situation started to spin out of control. All things considered, Jonathan's regime is still a better option than the coalition of the Muslim extremists that is shaping up now with an aim to win next year's elections.

Russian military analysts predict a rise in violence in Nigeria leading up to the presidential election next year. Some even claim that increased international aid, perhaps even an intervention, may be on the cards as the lessons of Iraq are starting to sink in, both in western and African capitals. As one Russian official told me, "Losing Nigeria to Muslim fundamentalists is simply a no go, whichever way you look at it. What is happening now in Iraq has been a rude wake-up call for Washington."

Some experts fear that Jonathan may have to widen the state of emergency in the north and even postpone the elections next year, if the situation does not improve. It is worth remembering that the leading APC candidate, Mahammadu Buhari, has been accused of inciting a violent uprising after losing the 2011 presidential election, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths. Next year, some fear, this could be even worse.

Wake up call or not, if the West and African countries don't take drastic steps to reign in Boko Haram and its backers, both in Nigeria and beyond, we might see the recently crowned "biggest economy in Africa" thrown into total disarray.

http://m.aljazeera.com/story/201471564859549939

[davidbfpo]

Can anyone identify what looks like an armoured turret on an obscured motor vehicle, on the left? It looks like it is manufactured, rather than a local DIY turret; with one fitted weapon.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/76354000/jpg/_76354015_76354008.jpg

[davidbfpo]

Yes there is endemic corruption, but this is - well - incredible:
On Tuesday, Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan asked the National Assembly for an extra $1bn to help the military fight Boko Haram.
But the parliamentarians have now gone on a two-month recess without debating the request. Nigeria's soldiers have frequently complained that the insurgents have superior firepower.


Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28374679

[JMA]

Yes there is endemic corruption, but this is - well - incredible:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28374679

Nothing about Nigeria is incredible:

A country so corrupt it would be better to burn our aid money (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2387359/Nigeria-country-corrupt-better-burn-aid-money.html)


In essence, 80 per cent of the country’s substantial oil revenues go to the government, which disburses cash to individual governors and hundreds of their cronies, so effectively these huge sums remain in the hands of a mere 1 per cent of the Nigerian population.

But the sick joke is:


By the end of its term of office, the British Government will have handed over £1 billion in aid to Nigeria.

I would caution the yanks reading this not to laugh until they see what their government is pouring down the drain in Nigeria.

The only guys laughing are the 1% of Nigerians with their snouts firmly in the trough!

[SWJ Blog]

Investing in Powerful Networks in Nigeria? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/investing-in-powerful-networks-in-nigeria)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/investing-in-powerful-networks-in-nigeria) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

Analysts tend to focus on "big issues", but they might miss out on the small issues that are apparent to folks on the ground. Little things like inter-ethnic relationships & how Nigerians see each other.

Nigeria is a very large country & very diverse too. It is at the meeting point of two great missionary religions: Christianity & Islam. That in itself shouldn't be that much of a problem, but there is almost zero "diversity training", so there's very little appreciation or sympathy from Christians as to the Muslim point of view - and vice-versa.

It is little stuff like this that aggravates sectarian tensions, it breeds an atmosphere of mutual suspicion & makes it easier for groups like Boko Haram to operate.

Boko Haram has been in serious business for like half a decade, what impact has that had on the average Nigerian Christian & his perception of Islam - & what are the implications for Nigeria's future?

Questions like these are seldom asked by analysts, focus is on appeasing the Muslim community - but what exactly are the Christians thinking? Are they planning to retaliate? Will it have political consequences?

Those are important questions we ignore - at our peril.

[KingJaja]

This is unrelated to the general thrust of this thread, but I'd like to point out that the arbitrary nature of Africa's "borders" make it impossible to contain threats like Ebola. Let's consider Nigeria.

1. https://t.co/EDpqZaUSYw This town in SW Nigeria with direct links to Cote D'Ivoire

2. It is possible to go by speed boat direct from Uyo in Akwa Ibom state to Malabo in equatorial Guinea

3. Nigeria and Sudan have long historical links, impossible to polise movement between both nations.

Implications for national security and also spread of infectious diseases.

[KingJaja]

Discusses the links between Northern Sudan & Northern Nigeria.


Historically,socio-cultural and trade ties have been strong between Northern Nigeria and Northern Sudan,particularly around Kano and Bornu. For centuries, the Shuwa Arabs(who number perhaps half a million people in Adamawa,Yobe and Borno states) who are thought to have emigrated from Darfur have inhabited the area around the Biu Plateau,Mandara mountains and plains and the Lake Chad basin. There also exists a well-established Sudanese diaspora in Kano. As recently as 1900,Rabeh the son of a Darfuri Arab was temporal Lord of the Lake Chad region!

These migratory trends appear to have been influenced by the fact of Kano having been the central terminus and Bornu the eastern terminus of the Trans-Saharan trade routes. Indeed,there is a long established practice(which continues to this day) of sending children/wards of the nobility for training in Islamic law,philosophy and theology to the Sudan.This is particularly noticeable in emirates such as Kano,Katsina,Zaria,Sokoto,Adamawa and Bornu.
So,how did Nigerians end up becoming Sudanese nationals?

http://beegeagle.wordpress.com/2010/04/09/hausa-fulani-and-kanuri-of-the-sudan/

[davidbfpo]

Gruesome video footage (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA7SIbvEO64), images and testimonies gathered by Amnesty International provide fresh evidence of war crimes, including extrajudicial executions, and other serious human rights violations being carried out in north-eastern Nigeria as the fight by the military against Boko Haram and other armed groups intensifies.

The video is bad, especially at the end.

Link:http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/nigeria-gruesome-footage-implicates-military-war-crimes-2014-08-05

[KingJaja]

David,

Nothing unusual about that. The Nigerian Army killed 2,400 in a single day in 1999 in Odi (in the Niger Delta). Amnesty and HRW protest, life goes on. That's the deeply distressing reality of life in Nigeria.

Another important (but often non discussed fact) is this: empathy is dead in Nigeria. Nigeria has witnessed so many gruesome killings that people no longer care (as long as it is not in their part of the country).

I live in Lagos, nobody in Lagos is bothered about this - and most definitely nobody from the Niger Delta or Southeast who will tell you that "Northerners weren't bothered when Northern dictators sent soldiers to massacre our people".

[davidbfpo]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

[KingJaja]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

Is Western involvement critical in solving this problem? I don't get a feel the Nigerian Army feels that way. They've already met the Sri Lankans, so that should tell you in what direction their minds are moving.

Worst case scenario, some territory is ceded to Boko Haram, life goes on, news is suppressed.

It is unfortunate, Nigeria was very "poorly designed" - bits and pieces of 1,000 year old Islamic states joined together with coastal forest states - which they had nothing in common with. That's why you have Sharia law in the North & Evangelical Christianity in the South.

There's very little cultural basis for a Nigerian state & if Boko Haram means the North leaves the South - I doubt if too many in the South will be bothered - if it doesn't shake up things too much.

[Bill Moore]

Is Western involvement critical in solving this problem? I don't get a feel the Nigerian Army feels that way. They've already met the Sri Lankans, so that should tell you in what direction their minds are moving.

This doesn't surprise me, and one the reasons I'm a vocal critic of U.S. COIN doctrine. It doesn't work, and yet we seem to be the only ones who don't recognize it. We promote political correctness over combat and strategy effectiveness. There are many options for countries to consider when it comes to security advice, and it is only logical they'll turn to a country they perceive to be successful. Tactically the Sri Lankan approach may work, but ultimately I suspect it will only the make situation worse. The Sri Lankan approach doesn't facilitate consolidating the victory in a way that leads to an enduring peace.

On the other hand, the U.S. isn't as competitive as it used to be when a country is looking for security assistance. The exception is when the U.S. is throwing money at the country (buying influence). It's sad if we're not sought out for our strategy and military competence. I suspect that is gradually will erode our influence globally as we lose our competitive advantage. When countries are facing existential threats they'll seek approaches they think will work. We need to find a better balance between promoting our ideas, morals, etc. with military effectiveness.

Final point, we create our own asymmetric disadvantages with our excessive legalistic approach to war.

[Bill Moore]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

The Nigerian military isn't doing itself any favors. It is tragic if confirmed these are military men (uniforms alone doesn't confirm that), especially after the years of effort dedicated to help reform the Nigerian military. Maybe in the end those who say this is Africa, and it is best to stay out are ultimately right?

[JMA]

The video is bad, especially at the end.

Link:http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/nigeria-gruesome-footage-implicates-military-war-crimes-2014-08-05

That this video surprises people says a lot in itself.

The main problem is that the people who make the decisions on Africa in Washington and the European capitals have absolutely no idea of how Africa 'works'.

[JMA]

The Nigerian military isn't doing itself any favors. It is tragic if confirmed these are military men (uniforms alone doesn't confirm that), especially after the years of effort dedicated to help reform the Nigerian military. Maybe in the end those who say this is Africa, and it is best to stay out are ultimately right?

Bill, you must please listen to KingJaja on this... this stuff has been happening for years not only internally in Nigeria... but also under ECOWAS interventions in Sierra Leone and Liberia. How is it that you can not be aware of this stuff... which BTW is not limited to Nigeria.

[JMA]

Pray tell me, if these boundaries are so ridiculous, why after 50 years of independence has nothing been done about it?

Why if the 'coastal forrest states' have enough in common have they not just abandoned the northern 'Islamic states' to their own devices? Methinks that is far to simple an option.


Is Western involvement critical in solving this problem? I don't get a feel the Nigerian Army feels that way. They've already met the Sri Lankans, so that should tell you in what direction their minds are moving.

Worst case scenario, some territory is ceded to Boko Haram, life goes on, news is suppressed.

It is unfortunate, Nigeria was very "poorly designed" - bits and pieces of 1,000 year old Islamic states joined together with coastal forest states - which they had nothing in common with. That's why you have Sharia law in the North & Evangelical Christianity in the South.

There's very little cultural basis for a Nigerian state & if Boko Haram means the North leaves the South - I doubt if too many in the South will be bothered - if it doesn't shake up things too much.

[JMA]

Nigerians don't need any guidence from Sri Lanka as they are well acquainted targeting civilians when the armed groups are too difficult to find.

I suggest that this is merely a 'trick' to justify the only approach they know... so when the bodies of the civilians begin to pile up they will have a excuse saying they are merely following the Sri Lankan doctrine.

Your comment on the legalistic approach to war is correct in that - certainly in Afghanistan - you have hog-tied your troops to the extent the Taliban can and will declare victory. You can see this can't you?


This doesn't surprise me, and one the reasons I'm a vocal critic of U.S. COIN doctrine. It doesn't work, and yet we seem to be the only ones who don't recognize it. We promote political correctness over combat and strategy effectiveness. There are many options for countries to consider when it comes to security advice, and it is only logical they'll turn to a country they perceive to be successful. Tactically the Sri Lankan approach may work, but ultimately I suspect it will only the make situation worse. The Sri Lankan approach doesn't facilitate consolidating the victory in a way that leads to an enduring peace.

On the other hand, the U.S. isn't as competitive as it used to be when a country is looking for security assistance. The exception is when the U.S. is throwing money at the country (buying influence). It's sad if we're not sought out for our strategy and military competence. I suspect that is gradually will erode our influence globally as we lose our competitive advantage. When countries are facing existential threats they'll seek approaches they think will work. We need to find a better balance between promoting our ideas, morals, etc. with military effectiveness.

Final point, we create our own asymmetric disadvantages with our excessive legalistic approach to war.

[KingJaja]

Pray tell me, if these boundaries are so ridiculous, why after 50 years of independence has nothing been done about it?

Why if the 'coastal forrest states' have enough in common have they not just abandoned the northern 'Islamic states' to their own devices? Methinks that is far to simple an option.

You weren't paying attention to the Nigerian civil war (in which Britain ensured) that the separatists were pummeled - or the various separatist movements in Africa.

Why does France have such a large military presence on the Continent? To preserve its colonial sphere of influence.

There's a vested interest by former colonial powers to keep their spheres of influence in Africa intact, but just like in Iraq/Syria, destabilizing agents like ISIS & Boko Haram will make that task difficult, if not impossible.

So the next great thing in Africa is "redrawing of colonial era boundaries" - it will be bloody, but I don't think you'll understand this.

[KingJaja]

Nigerians don't need any guidence from Sri Lanka as they are well acquainted targeting civilians when the armed groups are too difficult to find.

I suggest that this is merely a 'trick' to justify the only approach they know... so when the bodies of the civilians begin to pile up they will have a excuse saying they are merely following the Sri Lankan doctrine.

Your comment on the legalistic approach to war is correct in that - certainly in Afghanistan - you have hog-tied your troops to the extent the Taliban can and will declare victory. You can see this can't you?

Let me also add that save French intervention, Ivory Coast would have been at least two separate nations: one on the coast & another in the North. France moved to preserve its colonial sphere of influence there.

The thing is this - as time goes on, French & US ability to do these sorts of interventions wanes - the birth rates in the Sahel are frightening & there's no way a few French thousand troops will be able to restore order indefinitely.

So Africa is reverting more natural borders - that would be a major story of this Century.

[JMA]

You weren't paying attention to the Nigerian civil war (in which Britain ensured) that the separatists were pummeled - or the various separatist movements in Africa.

Oil... maybe you missed that.


Why does France have such a large military presence on the Continent? To preserve its colonial sphere of influence.

Yes the French are certainly displaying a high degree of post-colonial angst.


There's a vested interest by former colonial powers to keep their spheres of influence in Africa intact, but just like in Iraq/Syria, destabilizing agents like ISIS & Boko Haram will make that task difficult, if not impossible.

Due to its oil wealth Nigeria would have been in a better position (than most African countries) to resist this 'influence' had the proceeds not been looted by successive governments.


So the next great thing in Africa is "redrawing of colonial era boundaries" - it will be bloody, but I don't think you'll understand this.

Do you think I come from London or New York?

[JMA]

You keep looking for excuses... mainly colonialism.

Of course these countries are imploding... through total mismanagement and a lack of governance.

My point is rather than as is happening - just letting it all fall apart - is for the countries themselves to at least attempt to control the process.

No leadership, no foresight, no nothing.

... and the US hasn't got the foggiest idea of whats going on and how to assist with the process.



Let me also add that save French intervention, Ivory Coast would have been at least two separate nations: one on the coast & another in the North. France moved to preserve its colonial sphere of influence there.

The thing is this - as time goes on, French & US ability to do these sorts of interventions wanes - the birth rates in the Sahel are frightening & there's no way a few French thousand troops will be able to restore order indefinitely.

So Africa is reverting more natural borders - that would be a major story of this Century.

[ganulv]

Let me also add that save French intervention, Ivory Coast would have been at least two separate nations: one on the coast & another in the North. France moved to preserve its colonial sphere of influence there.

No doubt that France is paternalistic towards its former colonies. The intervention in Côte d'Ivoire would seem to me to be motivated by the desire to maintain stability, in the same way that serving as the guarantor of the CFA does. Not to be flippant, but ensuring a steady supply of cocoa would not seem to me to be worth the effort. I am far from an expert in the area, though, so I could be wrong.


So Africa is reverting more natural borders - that would be a major story of this Century.

Or is the human geography reshuffling itself within the post-colonial political geography, as Joshua Landis suggests is happening in Syria and Iraq (http://qifanabki.com/2013/12/18/landis-ethnicity/)?

[KingJaja]

No doubt that France is paternalistic towards its former colonies. The intervention in Cte d'Ivoire would seem to me to be motivated by the desire to maintain stability, in the same way that serving as the guarantor of the CFA does. Not to be flippant, but ensuring a steady supply of cocoa would not seem to me to be worth the effort. I am far from an expert in the area, though, so I could be wrong.



Or is the human geography reshuffling itself within the post-colonial political geography, as Joshua Landis suggests is happening in Syria and Iraq (http://qifanabki.com/2013/12/18/landis-ethnicity/)?

Anyone who lives in Sub Saharan Africa (not South Africa) will know how meaningless colonial borders are - you can move by speedboat from Uyo in Nigeria to Malabo. Boko Haram moves from one meaningless colonial border to another - people on all sides are the same.

The problem is that certain key states in Africa are growing weaker internally, not stronger - so why wouldn't Yorubas in Benin Republic associate more with Yorubas in Nigeria? A bit more like "ethnic nationalism" in 19th and 20 Century Europe.

[Bill Moore]

Bill, you must please listen to KingJaja on this... this stuff has been happening for years not only internally in Nigeria... but also under ECOWAS interventions in Sierra Leone and Liberia. How is it that you can not be aware of this stuff... which BTW is not limited to Nigeria.

Yes it has been happening for years, and I'm quite familiar with the atrocities committed in both the north and in the Niger Delta (been there). I recall reading about 200-300 getting killed a day with small arms and machetes in Jos, it was situation normal, and it wasn't unusual to see bodies floating the rivers and swamp in the Delta. Nonetheless I was surprised to see the current Nigerian military (if it actually was) commit these crimes based on our experience with the Nigerians in Liberia (second intervention) in 2003 where they were lauded for their professionalism, in contrast to the first intervention where they frequently raped the locals and set up illegal drug rings along with a number of other crimes. Clearly a major step backwards, but then again the U.S., along with other countries I suspect, greatly reduced to their support to Nigeria after 9/11.

Reference Sri Lanka, there was more to their strategy than killing civilians. Some spread the myth that the Sri Lankans quit focusing on taking and holding territory, and instead focused on killing the separatists, but the reality is they did both. While not decisive, their small unit operations in LTTE controlled areas were essential enablers in weakening LTTE cohesion and allowing decisive maneuver by larger elements. Their military tactics were actually quite good, but they failed to effectively consolidate their victory by failing to treat the civilians with respect and meet their needs (physical and psychological). Tactics generally shouldn't be followed blindly in different wars/locations for obvious reasons. A lesson the U.S. can't seem to apply effectively.

To your point about the U.S.'s ability to do anything about Africa, I don't think it our intention to save Africa from itself, but when there are opportunities to reinforce a positive movement I think we'll dedicate some support to it. Hopefully you know there are a lot countries playing in Africa besides the U.S., so you can start directing some your ire against them also, to include S. Africa, what the hell are they doing to help stabilize the region?

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,

South Africa isn't a relevant military player in Africa (apart from its mercenaries).

[Bill Moore]

Bill Moore,

South Africa isn't a relevant military player in Africa (apart from its mercenaries).

KingJaja, that is exactly my point. It gets a bit tiresome when a South African is constantly attacking U.S. policy, when they're a non-player. The U.S. has its own interests, and its own issues (politically and economically), and despite our many challenges name another country that tries to help humanity on the scale of the U.S.? Yet, and while understandable, the U.S. constantly endures verbal and written attacks by pundits from insignificant countries who do little to nothing on the world stage. Reminds me of the Teddy Roosevelt comment, much paraphrased, that the credit belongs to the man in the arena, whether he triumphs or fails, not the critic on the sideline.

[JMA]

To your point about the U.S.'s ability to do anything about Africa, I don't think it our intention to save Africa from itself, but when there are opportunities to reinforce a positive movement I think we'll dedicate some support to it. Hopefully you know there are a lot countries playing in Africa besides the U.S., so you can start directing some your ire against them also, to include S. Africa, what the hell are they doing to help stabilize the region?

Bill, with due respect you started this post attempting to provide your view and then when you realised you were failing you resported to the age old tactic of shooting the messenger.

Years ago I (and a number of others outside SWC) warned the the war in Afghanistan in general and in Helmand in particular with the Brits was going terribly wrong and was met by the same sort of mindset you now display - go read the thread for yourself - The UK in Afghanistan (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7644&highlight=Afghanistan). I was 95% correct without even having been to Afghanistan. Now as I sit in Kabul I see the US packing up and selling out (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/01/downsizing-the-war-layoffs-and-yard-sales-in-afghanistan.html) and ready to leave and desperately trying to put a positive spin on another war loss (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/10/afghanistan-us-army-general-good-news-senate-election). ISAF came here saying "this is what we do" did just that and got it wrong. In this case I am deeply sorry I got it right (and Lind is bang on the nail).

The final question is whether the yanks are going to be as dumb as the Bits were in 1842 and the Russians in 1989 and try to negotiate safe passage out of Afghanistan. My guess is that they will - on the basis that the Brits and the Russians are dumb and we are smart, right - and expect the Afghans to stand by the deal.

But back to Africa.

From TED here is a story by an Italian who arrived in Africa - like all the yanks, Canadians, Europeans and (yes) even the Chinese before him - believing he had all the answers and got it wrong (surprise, surprise). Now instead of hanging his head in shame he turns his cock-up in to a virtue.

Watch this and weep:

Want to help someone? Shut up and listen! (http://www.ted.com/talks/ernesto_sirolli_want_to_help_someone_shut_up_and_l isten)

At least he learned something but despite a long string of cock-ups have the yanks?

[JMA]

Bill Moore,

South Africa isn't a relevant military player in Africa (apart from its mercenaries).

Interesting comment... (I wonder if you realise that?)

The 'new' South African army is a joke. Its main role is a place where ex-fredom fighters can hang out with a salary and do next to nothing. In addition there is around a 40% HIV positive rate (http://www.hst.org.za/news/sandf-unveils-shock-aids-data). Then there is the infamous Arms Deal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_Arms_Deal)which haunts the government. So, yea, just another African army.

The mercenaries? Now there's a thought.

Ever wondered why and how a small group of under equiped (in terms the US would understand) men could wrap up situations in Africa which no one else could? Like the Russians and Cubans in Angola for instance? Also Sierra Leone.

Have any of the 'smart guys' analysed what these guys did and what worked as opposed to how the US, Russians, Brits and French would approach it?

Doubt it...

[JMA]

Bill, by your logic - and as the recent US record is a string of military defeats - every yank should shut up as his country's record is one of military failure.

It is surely not in the US's best interest to keep losing wars?

I have said many times before - even here - that the US is attempting to do good in the world but the aim and manner of imposing a form of US democracy on the world is not working and can be classed as an abject failure and leading the nation into bankruptcy. The US continues to do some really dumb stuff.

The fact that me and my view are insignificant in the greater scheme of things does not detract one iota from the truth of what I say.

Yes, by all means disregard everything and carry on blindly cocking it up every inch along the way. There are none so blind as those who will not see.


KingJaja, that is exactly my point. It gets a bit tiresome when a South African is constantly attacking U.S. policy, when they're a non-player. The U.S. has its own interests, and its own issues (politically and economically), and despite our many challenges name another country that tries to help humanity on the scale of the U.S.? Yet, and while understandable, the U.S. constantly endures verbal and written attacks by pundits from insignificant countries who do little to nothing on the world stage. Reminds me of the Teddy Roosevelt comment, much paraphrased, that the credit belongs to the man in the arena, whether he triumphs or fails, not the critic on the sideline.

[KingJaja]

Report from local news media, disturbing trend.


.Shoot me if you want, a female suicide bomber dares police
.Holding a Bible and pretending to be a worshipper, another detonated a bomb
.With a hug the third bomber blows up a soldier
.From a wheelchair the third throws a bomb at her target
The policemen who were stationed at the Eid prayer ground near North-West University in Kofar-Nasarawa in the ancient city of Kano were astonished when a teenage girl, clad in a brown hijab, walked confidently and hurriedly towards them where they were stationed in order to monitor the activities in the environment.
Apparently unsuspecting that danger was approaching them, the policemen handled her presence with levity. When she got too close for comfort, the policemen queried her. But rather than stop, she kept moving towards them. Speaking to Sunday Trust on their encounter with the young lady, who later became a suicide bomber, one of the policemen said when the girl refused to stop, they activated their guns.
“At first, we thought she wanted to come and give us a report about a security breach around the place, but when she moved quickly towards us, we all activated our guns. Yet, she didn’t stop,” the policeman said. “When we asked her to stop, she refused. She rather told us in Hausa that if we wanted to kill her we should.”
The policeman said it was while the conversation was going on that a loud bang tore through the air, such that they all had to dive to take cover.
“We took cover, but we all sustained injuries. We went down flat because we were afraid that her colleagues may be nearby,” he said.

http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/sunday/index.php/top-stories/17714-stark-encounters-with-teen-female-suicide-bombers

[carl]

KingJaja, that is exactly my point. It gets a bit tiresome when a South African is constantly attacking U.S. policy, when they're a non-player. The U.S. has its own interests, and its own issues (politically and economically), and despite our many challenges name another country that tries to help humanity on the scale of the U.S.? Yet, and while understandable, the U.S. constantly endures verbal and written attacks by pundits from insignificant countries who do little to nothing on the world stage. Reminds me of the Teddy Roosevelt comment, much paraphrased, that the credit belongs to the man in the arena, whether he triumphs or fails, not the critic on the sideline.

If it's true though, you gotta listen. We try, us flyover people and guys like you. Our failures aren't for the lack of effort and goodwill. We fail because of our leaders, a class of people who have neither character, wit, intelligence nor intellectual honesty. The furiners who comment around here without exception realize that. They know it isn't the Americans, it's the wizards inside the beltway.

[Bill Moore]

Bill, with due respect you started this post attempting to provide your view and then when you realised you were failing you resported to the age old tactic of shooting the messenger.

Years ago I (and a number of others outside SWC) warned the the war in Afghanistan in general and in Helmand in particular with the Brits was going terribly wrong and was met by the same sort of mindset you now display - go read the thread for yourself - The UK in Afghanistan (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7644&highlight=Afghanistan). I was 95% correct without even having been to Afghanistan. Now as I sit in Kabul I see the US packing up and selling out (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/01/downsizing-the-war-layoffs-and-yard-sales-in-afghanistan.html) and ready to leave and desperately trying to put a positive spin on another war loss (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/10/afghanistan-us-army-general-good-news-senate-election). ISAF came here saying "this is what we do" did just that and got it wrong. In this case I am deeply sorry I got it right (and Lind is bang on the nail).

The final question is whether the yanks are going to be as dumb as the Bits were in 1842 and the Russians in 1989 and try to negotiate safe passage out of Afghanistan. My guess is that they will - on the basis that the Brits and the Russians are dumb and we are smart, right - and expect the Afghans to stand by the deal.

But back to Africa.

From TED here is a story by an Italian who arrived in Africa - like all the yanks, Canadians, Europeans and (yes) even the Chinese before him - believing he had all the answers and got it wrong (surprise, surprise). Now instead of hanging his head in shame he turns his cock-up in to a virtue.

Watch this and weep:

Want to help someone? Shut up and listen! (http://www.ted.com/talks/ernesto_sirolli_want_to_help_someone_shut_up_and_l isten)

At least he learned something but despite a long string of cock-ups have the yanks?

JMA,

First off I don't believe I have disagreed with you regarding Afghanistan. Our nation building effort will be easily destroyed by the Taliban if we pull out in mass. On the other hand, what you call a military failure I call a political failure, and I don't think I'm being defensive. The military performed quite well in the early phases of Iraq and Afghanistan, and that is after projecting force halfway around the world. In Iraq our politicians had a vision that was disconnected from reality, and our politicians stopped the military from pursuing Al-Qaeda into Pakistan (for bad or good reasons depending on your point of view). Turning Iraq and Afghanistan into stable democracies was a pipe dream that military couldn't accomplish, and I don't think it reflects poorly on the military for being unable to create a world full of rainbows and unicorns.

For the countries in Africa, we haven't committed our forces to defeat an adversary decisively there. We have conducted some disruption operations against different terrorist groups, and engaged in a number of capacity building efforts, which probably will fail over time for a lot reasons. However, that isn't losing a war. I'm sure I'm not the only one that would be interested in your views on what we should do in Africa, and throwing up our hands and saying we don't care won't fly.

As to your comment on mercenaries being successful, I wasn't aware the mercenaries were successful in Angola, but I haven't read up on that conflict in years so I'll take a look. Executive Action was extremely successful in Sierra Leone with a small and lightly armed force, and they were punished by international opinion, which to this day amazes me. They turned the tide against a group of murderous thugs and they get criticized, much like Israel gets punished for their operations against Hamas. Want to know why we're not winning? Apparently there is no appetite for winning in the liberal West at this time, so we'll have to wait until more Westerners die before people wake up and depend decisive action. This is political, not a military issue. Since the military in the West is subordinate to the political we're simply stuck in a do loop where we're either given an impossible mission or denied the authorities and permissions to win what is winnable.

[carl]

Bill:

That last sentence was great.

[Dayuhan]

Ever wondered why and how a small group of under equiped (in terms the US would understand) men could wrap up situations in Africa which no one else could? Like the Russians and Cubans in Angola for instance? Also Sierra Leone.

Have any of the 'smart guys' analysed what these guys did and what worked as opposed to how the US, Russians, Brits and French would approach it?

Doubt it...

They operated without the constraint of domestic politics. That is not replicable by the forces of a Western democracy, because in a Western democracy domestic politics are ever-present and inescapable.

That constraint has to be factored into decision making from the start, and if you know that it will pose untenable limits on an intervention, it's better not to go there in the first place.

[Echo Bravo]

Dayuhan, I don’t comment on this site for numerous reasons.
However, I need to point out that as “mercenaries” we operated – and still operate -under the domestic laws of the governments that contracted us. That places us in a very different position to other PMCs that operate under their own country’s domestic laws and are therefore not accountable to the host government’s laws. Although we were (and still are) usually called when all other options have failed and the contracting government is close to collapse, we apply and enforce a very strict code of conduct.
I can also add that many of the African troops we have recently encountered and that have been trained by foreign military advisors and PMCs need to be retrained as their “training” has been shocking at best. Similarly, advice given to some African governments by “foreign Africa specialists” has been very poor and in many cases, has done more harm than good.
A lack of credible intelligence, unrealistic strategies, poor operational designs and ill-prepared troops can never result in success. Add to that a lack of political and military will and a misunderstanding of the enemy and his support base and, at best, you have a disaster in the making.
Considering the above, it will most certainly pose “untenable limits on an intervention, it's better not to go there in the first place”.

[Dayuhan]

Operating under local law makes sense, assuming that the government behind local law has some degree of legitimacy. Local law is to some extent linked to the conflict environment and will to some extent be understood by the people in that environment. A force operating under an utterly remote rule set will certainly be handicapped.

Law, though, is just the beginning of the problem. My own observation of US interventions, particularly those in places not considered strategically critical, is that they are usually designed not for their impact on the target country, but for their impact on the domestic political audience, a circumstance that is not conducive to success.

The US (again in my observation) typically ignores places that are not immediate concerns: there's little effort to develop serious understanding or expertise on environments that are not on today's problem list. When something does break out they are caught flat-footed and there's a mad rush to find some "expert" that will tell the political powers of the day whatever they have already decided they want to hear. At this point the "intelligence" community is tasked with providing a justification for whatever course of action is deemed most salable to the domestic political audience. At the end of it, whatever poor schmuck ends up out in the field is burdened with unachievable goals, unrealistic expectations, inappropriate strategies, and a whole host of other problems.

Unless that changes, and I don't think it will, I'd rather see the US keep it's collective putz in its pants with the zipper well up, and resist the temptation to meddle in places they don't understand. If you can't play by local rules and you aren't there with a clear and realistic objective, better not to be there at all.

IMO, obviously.

[KingJaja]

I knew this was going to happen.

1. Cameroon is even more badly governed than Nigeria & Northern Cameroon is worse off than Northern Nigeria.

2. There's no real difference with Northern Cameroon, Northeast Nigeria or parts of the middle of Thad - they are all Kanuri, colonial borders don't mean much.


Yaounde - The Nigerian Islamist movement Boko Haram has recruited and trained hundreds of young Cameroonians to carry out attacks in their own country, according to the police and civilians.

As the militant group seeks to gain a foothold in the poor, rural north of Cameroon, experts warn that violence may spread beyond border areas to other parts of the central African country.

"Boko Haram has recruited many young people" from Cameroon's Far North region, a police officer from the area told AFP on condition of anonymity

http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Boko-Haram-gathers-new-recruits-in-Cameroon-20140808

When I say that colonial era boundaries are simply not viable long-term, this is what I mean. In other parts of Africa, these borders are being eliminated by trade, not conflict.

Paradoxically, decades of Western aid have led to less, not more capable African governments - and one of the goals of aid (as I hear) is to produce more capable African governments.

Paul Biya is old, tired and probably unwilling to fight a long-drawn out battle with Boko Haram. I hear Cameroonian Army strength is only about 20,000. True, the French will pitch in, but for how long - and what political solutions will be considered?

I don't know what a viable long-term political & economic solution to the crisis in the Sahel will look like. However, I'm not sure anyone else does either.

[Echo Bravo]

KingJaJa, I agree wholeheartedly with you concerning the colonial borders that were arbitrarily drawn into the sand and that resulted in nations/ethnic groups being incorporated into 2 or 3 different states. Your argument is sound and cannot be faulted.

However, that happened decades ago and Africa needs to come to terms with itself and move forward. We cannot continue blaming the past without taking responsibility for the present and planning for the future.

Insofar as Boko Haram is concerned: There are some who are fully aware of the fact that we issued a warning to the Nigerian government in 2012 of an upcoming BH offensive. This was discarded and instead other advice was accepted – such advice intimating that all is good and well, when in fact it wasn’t. By accepting unsound advice, governments erode their own powerbases and often bring their legitimacy into question. The populace take note of this as they are not blind or deaf.

Some African governments have apparently chosen to ignore their responsibilities and continue to rely on the West to jump in to solve their problems. The message this propagates is loud and clear to all who care to listen. But, many of these problems are the result of a lack of national strategy, a lack of a national security strategy, poor governance, a lack of direction and so forth – not the result of colonialism. Of course, without sound and credible intelligence, no focussed or realistic strategy can developed. Without valid predictive intelligence, there can be little to no flexibility.

So, back to BH: Where was the intelligence that indicated this was coming? If it was available, why were the armed forces incorrectly trained, equipped and postured and therefore caught by surprise? The same questions can be asked of Cameroon who are now suffering a similar onslaught.

The toppling of Ghadaffi must surely have allowed the intelligence services to make very valid intelligence predictions. Why didn’t they?

Yes, the colonial borders will always remain a point of disagreement but, we cannot continue blaming them for what is now happening. Besides, do you think any of our governments will willingly hand over large tracts of their territory to a neighbouring government? Personally, I doubt it.

The bottom line is that Africa needs to wake up and take control of itself. We cannot continue looking to the West to solve problems we in many instances have caused ourselves.

[davidbfpo]

Eighteen months ago I was party to a conversation with Africa watchers about BH. One watcher with years of experience in Nigeria remarked that Western diplomats had been warned about BH, but dismissed the threat. When the chat turned to Cameroon it was noted that non-French engagement was minimal - almost as if the country didn't exist. It was claimed that there was no UK capacity to even review what Cameroon's security forces had and what was needed.

[Bill Moore]

Dayuhan, I don’t comment on this site for numerous reasons.
However, I need to point out that as “mercenaries” we operated – and still operate -under the domestic laws of the governments that contracted us. That places us in a very different position to other PMCs that operate under their own country’s domestic laws and are therefore not accountable to the host government’s laws. Although we were (and still are) usually called when all other options have failed and the contracting government is close to collapse, we apply and enforce a very strict code of conduct.
I can also add that many of the African troops we have recently encountered and that have been trained by foreign military advisors and PMCs need to be retrained as their “training” has been shocking at best. Similarly, advice given to some African governments by “foreign Africa specialists” has been very poor and in many cases, has done more harm than good.
A lack of credible intelligence, unrealistic strategies, poor operational designs and ill-prepared troops can never result in success. Add to that a lack of political and military will and a misunderstanding of the enemy and his support base and, at best, you have a disaster in the making.
Considering the above, it will most certainly pose “untenable limits on an intervention, it's better not to go there in the first place”.

After thinking about this awhile I do agree we (the U.S.) generally do a very poor job at training foreign troops, despite all our hoopla to the contrary. I won't bore everyone with why that is, it is just the way it is. A self-evident truth that our leadership refuses to recognize.

I think your comments about unrealistic strategies, poor operational designs, etc., if directed against the U.S. military, may be overstated. You stated you work for the state that hired you as a mercenary. I assume in most cases that state believes they have a significant threat, and are looking for a military solution, which is why they hired you.

In contrast, when the U.S. military deploys to Africa we normally are subordinate to our State Department. This is a huge difference, our State Department is using the military as a foreign policy tool to further their diplomatic objectives. They don't care about winning, and they certainly don't share the same level of threat to their diplomacy interests that the state we're supporting feels.

When the U.S. military is in the lead, as it was in the initial phases of our operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the military did a great job of defeating its adversaries in battle. What came after that is where we lost our direction and momentum. Mercenaries supporting an existing government don't have the same issues of dealing with what comes next after a government falls. On the other hand, this is where we have failed repeatedly. Until we toss out our naïve ideas of installing the least stable form of government, a newly formed democracy, as an end state and develop an occupation doctrine we'll continue to fail when we oust governments with our military.

I think if you take some of our higher end SOF units and better trained light infantry units and allow them to focus on hunting the adversary, like EO appeared to do in Sierra Leone, they would do quite well. Like any military unit operating in a new area they'll have to go through an initial learning curve.

Lots and lots of other issues, but I think the difference of a military unit for working for a state or their diplomatic corps is a significant difference that results in very different outcomes.

[Bill Moore]

Eighteen months ago I was party to a conversation with Africa watchers about BH. One watcher with years of experience in Nigeria remarked that Western diplomats had been warned about BH, but dismissed the threat. When the chat turned to Cameroon it was noted that non-French engagement was minimal - almost as if the country didn't exist. It was claimed that there was no UK capacity to even review what Cameroon's security forces had and what was needed.

If it is a Francophone country is it so unusual that the UK wouldn't get involved? I think the appropriate question is are the French helping? The next question is are they coordinated efforts across the borders since the threat doesn't reside in our nicely defined geographical boundaries?

[davidbfpo]

If it is a Francophone country is it so unusual that the UK wouldn't get involved? I think the appropriate question is are the French helping? The next question is are they coordinated efforts across the borders since the threat doesn't reside in our nicely defined geographical boundaries?

The Cameroon is a relatively new nation, being formed from two colonies, one British and one French. Upon independence the UK's interest evaporated, the French were far happier to stay around. According to a little reseach after this chat I found the French did have a military linkage, although like most of Africa small arms were of communist origin. Wiki:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cameroon

The president has been in power since 1982, which suggests - well, fossilisation.:wry:

Regarding the cross-border coordination; of late statements of intent exist, but I have my doubts it means much.

[Bill Moore]

Thanks for the info, I did a little digging and learned that both English and French are official languages, and according the CIA fact book 20% of the population is Muslim. Couldn't find much on Cameroon on our State Department website, which indicates that we're not paying much attention to it either.

[KingJaja]

KingJaJa, I agree wholeheartedly with you concerning the colonial borders that were arbitrarily drawn into the sand and that resulted in nations/ethnic groups being incorporated into 2 or 3 different states. Your argument is sound and cannot be faulted.

However, that happened decades ago and Africa needs to come to terms with itself and move forward. We cannot continue blaming the past without taking responsibility for the present and planning for the future.

Insofar as Boko Haram is concerned: There are some who are fully aware of the fact that we issued a warning to the Nigerian government in 2012 of an upcoming BH offensive. This was discarded and instead other advice was accepted – such advice intimating that all is good and well, when in fact it wasn’t. By accepting unsound advice, governments erode their own powerbases and often bring their legitimacy into question. The populace take note of this as they are not blind or deaf.

Some African governments have apparently chosen to ignore their responsibilities and continue to rely on the West to jump in to solve their problems. The message this propagates is loud and clear to all who care to listen. But, many of these problems are the result of a lack of national strategy, a lack of a national security strategy, poor governance, a lack of direction and so forth – not the result of colonialism. Of course, without sound and credible intelligence, no focussed or realistic strategy can developed. Without valid predictive intelligence, there can be little to no flexibility.

So, back to BH: Where was the intelligence that indicated this was coming? If it was available, why were the armed forces incorrectly trained, equipped and postured and therefore caught by surprise? The same questions can be asked of Cameroon who are now suffering a similar onslaught.

The toppling of Ghadaffi must surely have allowed the intelligence services to make very valid intelligence predictions. Why didn’t they?

Yes, the colonial borders will always remain a point of disagreement but, we cannot continue blaming them for what is now happening. Besides, do you think any of our governments will willingly hand over large tracts of their territory to a neighbouring government? Personally, I doubt it.

The bottom line is that Africa needs to wake up and take control of itself. We cannot continue looking to the West to solve problems we in many instances have caused ourselves.

I'm not blaming anyone for anything - it is simple: colonial era borders are simply unsustainable, we could argue about this till we drop from exhaustion, but this fact remains.

We've passed the stage of apportioning blame, just like World Wars 1 & 2 changed Europe's borders & the fall of the Soviet Union resulted in border changes - what is happening in Africa will change borders.

Take or leave it.

The earlier the international community realizes this, the better.

[KingJaja]

A long, but interesting read on the relationship between "citizen" and "state" in Nigeria (and most of Africa).

http://archive.lib.msu.edu/DMC/African%20Journals/pdfs/political%20science/volume4n1/ajps004001006.pdf

Anyone who reads this carefully would understand that imposing a Western understanding of "citizenship" and "statehood" in Africa is largely a waste of time.

Africa may not produce as many media worthy protests as the Arab World, but for 50 years and counting, the post-colonial African state has failed to deliver to its citizens - so people have creating alternative structures to the state which in time, will be strong enough to challenge the legitimacy of the state.

I live in Nigeria, I have a front seat view in all of this - I've noticed the rise of ethno/religious organizations challenging the legitimacy of the state - Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram are only two out of many. With each challenge, the state grows weaker, and this is noted by the next generation of separatists.

Where does this leave us? The nation is of the mind and heart, not simply a flag and national anthem. This is looking a lot like Yugoslavia.

[KingJaja]

US "liberated" Iraq and expected Iraqis to "fight for their country".

I'm seeing quite a bit of that kind of wishful thinking logic being applied to Africa, on this thread and in a lot of the works by Western commentators.

When armed intervention gains traction - people wont be "fighting for their country", they'll be fighting for something else.

[KingJaja]

Totally unrelated, but France's record in Africa is a bit mixed. It has intervened severally in former colonies (long before the "War against Terror"). I assume blow back will come one day.

As usual US gets into a tight embrace with France probably without considering long-term consequences.


Incidentally, once you read this you’ll no longer wonder why French presidents and ministers are sometimes greeted by protests when they visit former French colonies in Africa, even if the protests are about other issues. Though what other issues could be more important than this one we have no idea.

14 African countries only ever have access to 15% of their own money!
Monetary bankruptcy
Just before France conceded to African demands for independence in the 1960s, it carefully organised its former colonies (CFA countries) in a system of “compulsory solidarity” which consisted of obliging the 14 African states to put 65% of their foreign currency reserves into the French Treasury, plus another 20% for financial liabilities. This means these 14 African countries only ever have access to 15% of their own money! If they need more they have to borrow their own money from the French at commercial rates! And this has been the case since the 1960s.

http://thisisafrica.me/france-loots-former-colonies/

[JMA]

Carl, you will find the following article interesting:

Adopting Africa by Paul Theroux (http://www.playboy.com/playground/view/adopting-africa)

and this one:

The Charitable-Industrial Complex (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/27/opinion/the-charitable-industrial-complex.html?_r=2&)


If it's true though, you gotta listen. We try, us flyover people and guys like you. Our failures aren't for the lack of effort and goodwill. We fail because of our leaders, a class of people who have neither character, wit, intelligence nor intellectual honesty. The furiners who comment around here without exception realize that. They know it isn't the Americans, it's the wizards inside the beltway.

[KingJaja]

Very worrying sign that the Nigerian Army could be at breaking point.


The wives and children of Nigerian troops at the Giwa Barracks, Maiduguri, have resumed their blockade of the barracks, insisting that their husbands and fathers will no longer fight Boko Haram with old weapons.

It was reported that dozens of women and children had since Saturday forcefully stopped military trucks from transporting their husbands and fathers to Gwoza where Boko Haram has taken over the town.

The protesters blocked the gates of the barracks that houses the 21 Armoured Brigade of the Nigerian Army, demanding quality fighting equipment for the soldiers.

Meanwhile, the spate of killings in Gwoza has engaged the women in the area in mass burials as Boko Haram attacks have left many males dead in the town.

http://leadership.ng/news/380745/boko-haram-soldiers-wives-children-resume-protest-borno

[KingJaja]

Just to add that religion features heavily in the run up to the 2015 elections here. Massive whisper campaign - opposition party (Muslim dominated) is being painted as "Muslim Brotherhood", allusions to "Boko Haram", "Worldwide Jihad"...

These undercurrents tend to be ignored by Western analysts, but they do matter.

[davidbfpo]

Just to add that religion features heavily in the run up to the 2015 elections here. Massive whisper campaign - opposition party (Muslim dominated) is being painted as "Muslim Brotherhood", allusions to "Boko Haram", "Worldwide Jihad"...

These undercurrents tend to be ignored by Western analysts, but they do matter.

Given the variety of approaches within the Mulsim Brotherhood (MB) over recent years, I cannot see this 'whisper' being that effective. Is it the MB led by Morsi in Egypt or those who rose in the 80's against the Assad regime?

There is a long running thread on the MB:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=891

[davidbfpo]

Two stories about an Australian Dr Davis, a self-described "amateur peacemaker" from Perth, with some experience of negoitations in Nigeria, tried to rescue the kidnapped girls - taken in April 2014:http://www.smh.com.au/world/how-amateur-peacemaker-stephen-davis-rescued-kidnapped-girls-from-boko-haram-20140829-109952.html#ixzz3CN8yQOK6

He is not an optimist:
When Boko Haram links up with ISIL - and there is interaction between the two - and with [terrorist group] al-Shabbab, that triangle is going to be the new home of terrorism like the world has not seen....The guys before - there was no kidnapping, no rape. They wouldn't kidnap women or children, because that was contrary to the Koran. Now these guys will do anything, they are a totally different breed.

Second story (they are different):http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-27/australian-risks-life-to-rescue-kidnapped-nigerian-girls/5699676

[KingJaja]

Given the variety of approaches within the Mulsim Brotherhood (MB) over recent years, I cannot see this 'whisper' being that effective. Is it the MB led by Morsi in Egypt or those who rose in the 80's against the Assad regime?

There is a long running thread on the MB:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=891

It will work VERY WELL with Nigerian Christians. Sometimes you forget the dynamics are a bit different in Nigeria.

[KingJaja]

Review of interesting book dealing with the history of religious tensions in Northern Nigeria:


It points out that while the British colonized Muslim northern Nigeria indirectly through the region’s pre-existing centralized feudal traditional and administrative institutions, it colonized non-Muslim northern Nigeria even more indirectly through “native aliens,” that is, Hausa-Fulani Muslims whom British colonialists placed atop their self-created African civilizational hierarchy. “This resulted in a subcolonial bureaucracy driven at the grass roots by thousands of Hausa chiefs, scribes, tax agents, and their own Hausa-Fulani agents, who initiated much of the colonial agenda in these Middle Belt districts” (p. 2).

Thus, the Hausa-Fulani became “subcolonials,” or proxy colonialists, who in turn appointed “lesser chiefs, aides, tax collectors, scribes, and enforcers” mostly from among their kind but sometimes from among the “natives” in order to prepare the Middle Belt for the kind of indirect colonial rule that was successful in the Muslim north. The motive force for this arrangement stemmed from the colonial construction of the people of the Middle Belt as benighted cultural inferiors who needed the civilizational tutelage of their Hausa-Fulani cultural superiors preparatory to British indirect colonial rule. This invidious social differentiation wasn’t a simple case of the divide-and-rule tactic for which (British) colonialists were infamous. On the contrary, the book argues, the policy of “proxy colonialism” was driven by the “pursuit of sameness in the crucible of preparatory proxy rule” (p. 8).

http://www.farooqkperogi.com/2014/09/brave-new-book-historicizes-northern.html

[KingJaja]

Interesting comparison of the similarity in behaviour of the Nigerian Army in Sierra Leone/Liberia & in its present operations against Boko Haram.


The most striking and worrying similarity between the current conflict and the operations in Liberia and Sierra-Leone is the fluid stalemate that has now developed between the military and Boko Haram. By this I mean that on the one hand the insurgency is now in strategic stalemate – Boko Haram’s aspiration of an Islamic State in Nigeria remains a pipe dream; similarly, a comprehensive military victory against the sect seems unlikely for now. On the other hand however, battlefield conditions on the ground is characterised by tactical fluidity. The frequent loss and recapture of towns and villages by the military, and Boko Haram’s ability to move heavily armed operatives in large convoys with impunity in significant sections of the northeast illustrate this fluid and rapidly changing situation on the ground.

The outcome of Nigeria’s armed interventions in Liberia and Sierra-Leone can also be described as fluid stalemates. In neither country was the military able to achieve its strategic objective of breaking the rebels’ war-fighting resolve. In both countries while the Nigerian army controlled the capitals; in Liberia the rebels controlled the rest of the country, whilst in Sierra-Leone it was the northern half by December 1998. And in both missions, despite the strategic stalemate – i.e. neither the rebels nor the Nigerian military completely vanquished the other – the tactical situation on the ground was highly fluid as battlefield fortunes ebbed and flowed.

http://janguzaarewa.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/5-similarities-between-current-war.html

[AdamG]

Nigerian Army Kills Boko Haram Leader, Rounds Up Hundreds of Fighters
Startling comeback for Abuja’s armed forces
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/nigerian-army-kills-boko-haram-leader-rounds-up-hundreds-of-fighters-dfb58579fae7

http://www.france24.com/en/20140925-boko-haram-militant-leader-abubakar-shekau-dead-nigeria-military/

[davidbfpo]

This graphic is enough for some, but SWC needs more. So a couple of passages:
The data makes clear that Boko Haram-related violence is the most lethal conflict that Nigeria has confronted in decades (http://www.crisisgroup.org/%7E/media/Files/africa/west-africa/nigeria/168%20Northern%20Nigeria%20-%20Background%20to%20Conflict.pdf). Since 1998, at least 29,600 Nigerians have been killed in more than 2,300 incidents reflecting a wide range of ethnic, religious, political and economic tensions across large portions of the country. Since July 2009, when the Boko Haram conflict escalated, at least 11,100 people have died on all sides of the insurgency.

Then there's always WAWA:
Political rulers, when confronted by an approaching existential threat, might normally be expected to mobilize national resources to aggressively confront the insurgency (http://www.amazon.com/Ordering-Power-Contentious-Authoritarian-Comparative/dp/0521165458/ref=asap_B003FAP8EA_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1412372758&sr=1-1). Yet Nigeria’s elites seem to be detached, mired in political infighting, or distracted by opportunities to profit from poorly monitored security budgets.

Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/06/the-boko-haram-insurgency-by-the-numbers/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=http://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/10/boko-haram.jpg&w=1484

The linked article explains the origin of the data

[davidbfpo]

For months the Nigerian government has denied being in talks with Boko Haram, over the kidnapped schoolgirls in particular. Now it appears they have been talking, with the Red Cross visiting jails to identify those to be "swooped". Now whether this is a real success is arguable.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/11169959/Nigerias-missing-schoolgirls-to-be-released-after-ceasefire-deal.html?

[KingJaja]

I knew it would come to this, they'll probably seek the services/advice or Sri Lanka, Russia, North Korea or China - people who use the same brutal methods they are comfortable with.


The U.S. is cutting short a training program for Nigerian soldiers following a request by the West African nation’s government less than a month after Washington said it refused to sell the country Cobra attack helicopters.
“At the request of the Nigerian government, the United States will discontinue its training of a Nigerian Army battalion,” the U.S. Embassy in the capital, Abuja, said in an e-mailed statement. The program was designed to help Nigeria battle the Islamist militant group Boko Haram.
The U.S. turned down the helicopter request “due to concerns about Nigeria’s ability to use and maintain this type of helicopter in its effort against Boko Haram and ongoing concerns about the Nigerian military’s protection of civilians when conducting military operations,” State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in Washington on Nov. 12.
Nigeria’s military, under the leadership of President Goodluck Jonathan, is struggling to deal with intensifying attacks by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram.The insurgents have killed more than 13,000 people since 2009, according to Jonathan. Suspected Boko Haram members carried out two attacks on cities in Nigeria’s northeast today, killing at least five people.
“We regret premature termination of this training, as it was to be the first in a larger planned project that would have trained additional units with the goal of helping the Nigerian Army build capacity to counter Boko Haram,” the embassy said.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/nigerian-government-calls-halt-to-u-s-training-for-army.html#disqus-tab

[Bill Moore]

Nigeria Troops Sentenced To Death For Cowardice


Fifty-four members of Nigeria's special forces have been sentenced to death for mutiny and cowardice after refusing to take part in a raid against Islamist group Boko Haram.


Nigerian troops have long complained they lack the firepower to fight Boko Haram and say they are often abandoned with little food and ammunition.


In recent weeks special forces have recaptured at least four towns with help from air raids and vigilantes.

[CrowBat]

It seems that Boko Haram have overrun Maiduguri AB, in NE Nigeria:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wavj17TQp9A

They claim '20 aircraft burned down': apparently, this includes a number of MiG-21bis (few can be seen on this video) that are out of service since the 1980s and were up for sale.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/12/26/isis-boko-haram-and-the-growing-role-of-human-trafficking-in-21st-century-terrorism.html
ISIS, Boko Haram, and the Growing Role of Human Trafficking in 21st Century Terrorism


The intersection of drugs and terrorism has long been investigated. Now, the recent actions of ISIS and Boko Haram are drawing attention to the role of human trafficking.


While trafficking and smuggling does generate revenue, they are not central money-making endeavors for terrorists and are committed primarily for other reasons. Pakistani terrorists buy children to serve as suicide bombers. Rebels in Africa trade in children to fund their conflicts and obtain child soldiers. More recently, Boko Haram shocked the world by kidnapping 276 female students and threatened to traffic them. ISIS members have taken young Azidi girls, raped and sold them off for trivial prices. The girls and women may sell for as little as $25 and sometimes even less, suggesting that this is not a revenue-generating operation when a million dollars daily is gained from oil sales. Rather, human trafficking, like slavery in the past, is a way of demoralizing the conquered.

[davidbfpo]

Boko Harem have long crossed the western border into Cameroon, in recent months meeting resistance and a military response. Events there are rarely reported directly. The BBC has two reports:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30623199 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30623199)http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30078626

[davidbfpo]

Compared to the easy to report from centre of Paris and nearby, there has been little reporting on Boko Haram's latest "success", first attacking an army base (the occupants fled into Chad) and days later the adjacent town of Baga, the last town in the north-east held by the Nigerian state.

The significance comes from the death toll:
An Amnesty International statement said there are reports the town was razed and as many as 2,000 people killed.......The five-year insurgency killed more than 10,000 people last year alone, according to the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/09/boko-haram-deadliest-massacre-baga-nigeria?

[Bill Moore]

It is amazing that this isn't getting wider coverage. More evidence that the north doesn't value life in the southern hemisphere. 200 killed over a weekend in Nigeria in ethnic violence is not abnormal, but 2,000 slaughtered is a story. I guess it isn't news if there is no market for it? BH also strapped a bomb to a little girl that recently killed 20 people in another market attack.

See no evil, hear no evil, say no evil.

[ganulv]

It is amazing that this isn't getting wider coverage. More evidence that the north doesn't value life in the southern hemisphere. 200 killed over a weekend in Nigeria in ethnic violence is not abnormal, but 2,000 slaughtered is a story. I guess it isn't news if there is no market for it?

I have no idea how editors judge something to be newsworthy, but this one is a real puzzler and disappointment. And in the age when every venue jumps on any possible story to get something online as quickly as possible in an effort to win the social media algorithm. I guess editors are judging it “not relateable”?

[davidbfpo]

One reason for the lack of a high profile on this incident is that there is no independent news coverage; Jihadists of late have generally discouraged and even executed uninvited media. So there is no information and no film footage. The later is essential IMHO for a good TV report.

[Bill Moore]

David,

I certainly can't argue with your analysis, it certainly seems logical.

Nigerian government came out and said only 150 people were killed, and many of them were BH. However, subsequent reports indicated the government of Nigeria is trying to hide the truth. Apparently BH still occupies the town, so the Army isn't even there, so if true hard to believe the government even has a clue on how many were killed.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/12/africa/boko-haram-deadliest-attack/

Nine days later, bodies still litter


On Monday, bodies still littered the bushes in the area.

"It is still not safe to go and pick them up for burial," said Musa Bukar, the chairman of the local government where Baga is located.

"Baga is not accessible because it is still occupied by Boko Haram," said Sen. Maina Ma'aji Lawan of northern Borno state.

When the media does not have access both sides have the freedom to deceive. For now the truth for outsiders remains unknown.


"Security forces have responded rapidly and have deployed significant military assets and conducted airstrikes against militant targets," Omeri said. "Troops are engaged in operations to reclaim the area from the terrorists."

"From information we are receiving from residents nearby, not a single Nigerian soldier has shown up in Baga since it was seized by Boko Haram," he said. "It is all propaganda."

[davidbfpo]

A Washington Times article that relies on two US-based analysts to make its argument:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/14/boko-haram-embraces-islamic-state-model-for-extrem/

[omarali50]

This should have been covered more just because it is such a huge tragedy, but I am curious to know how it was covered IN Nigeria itself? I assume there was massive coverage in the press and on TV? What was the main thrust of pundit commentary within Nigeria? (not a rhetorical question, I just have no clue).
If one were to be somewhat unfeeling, one may even ask if there were any million man marches or shows of solidarity? Did other African leaders rush to Nigeria to hold hands and get pictures taken?
If not (I suspect not), then how likely is it that people in faraway lands will do much more?
I understand that Nigeria is not France. But then again, maybe that is why this has receieved little notice in the news. People (inlcuding newsmen) judge newsworthiness based on prior expectations. Sadly, for most people outside Nigeria, the prior expectation seems to be that it's a violent country with an incompetent army where vicious gangs of Islamist (and other) thugs occasionally go on massive killing sprees. To most distant observers, this just seems like "more of the same" and has less shock value than 17 victims in France. I am not saying this is necessarily accurate. And I am certainly not saying everyone SHOULD ignore what happens in Nigeria (their own comfort may be impacted if this spreads at this level all along the 10th parallel), but just trying to understand what the reasons may be...

[davidbfpo]

Once again Chad's military are likely to fight next door, this time in the Cameroon; previously they have been in Mali and the CAR - each time they left after criticism, if downright public opposition to their presence.
Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/16/us-nigeria-violence-cameroon-idUSKBN0KP05V20150116?

Earlier today a former British defence adviser in Nigeria, in a BBC radio interview, dismissed proposed external assistance to Nigeria's military would either help or be asked for.

[omarali50]

I saw a segment on CNN where a Nigerian soldier was saying they had to buy their own kit because corrupt officers stole all the money and so on. Now this military actually defeated the Biafrans in the late 60s. Were they as corrupt then? or did they decay? or is this corruption story exaggerated?

[davidbfpo]

I saw a segment on CNN where a Nigerian soldier was saying they had to buy their own kit because corrupt officers stole all the money and so on. Now this military actually defeated the Biafrans in the late 60s. Were they as corrupt then? or did they decay? or is this corruption story exaggerated?

omarali50,

Corruption is endemic to Nigeria and IIRC there are a few posts here on the gap between the political establishment and the military. For the politicians the issue today is the approaching national elections.

Yes Biafra was defeated, but it took a long time - along with not inconsiderable external help - to overcome resistance: July 1967–January 1970. See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_Civil_War

I have read in Sir David Richards book comments about the tactical prowess of the Nigerians in ECOMOG, now awhile ago in Sierra Leone (1998-2000). Times change and you are right that corruption, decay and more have shrunk Nigeria's military capabilities.

[davidbfpo]

At the end of a UK CT story is this paragraph, I'd not noted this being given publicity before:
The Ministry of Defence is also drawing up plans to deepen Britain’s involvement in the fight against Boko Haram Islamists in Nigeria, with up to 70 more military training specialists expected to be sent for 10 weeks to prepare the Nigerian armed forces for battle.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11353243/Convicted-terror-leader-with-link-to-Paris-who-we-cannot-deport.html

[Firn]

It might be important to point out the hefty impact of oil crash on Nigeria's economy, especially government's revenues and exports aka 'hard currency':


Nigeria’s Government Promotes Linkages in Oil Sector Nigeria is highly dependent on the oil sector, which is currently the country’s main source of its foreign exchange earnings and, growth although the contributions of non-oil sector to growth has been growing in recent years. From 1980 to 2010, oil revenues contributed an average of 76% of the federal government’s revenues. Nigeria’s exports are also seriously undiversified, with oil accounting for an average of 97% of exports over the same period. Nonetheless, efforts are being made to improve linkage between the oil sector and other sectors of the economy, albeit with moderate success.

From the UN report Media Kit 2013 (http://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/uploaded-documents/era2013_casestudy_eng_nigeria.pdf)


The FT article "Nigeria devalues currency as oil prices drop" (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30d5ba9e-749b-11e4-8321-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3PChU7RRn) has a bit more about the problems around Nigeria's oil production and governance in years past:



The shortage of savings and hard currency reserves is partly the result of huge shortfalls in oil revenues being remitted to the treasury during the recent boom. Mr Sanusi, the former central bank governor, was suspended earlier this year after he alleged that up to $20bn owed by the state oil company was unaccounted for and warned he would be unable to defend the naira should there be an oil price shock. The findings of a PwC audit commissioned by the government on the allegations were due in August but have yet to be made public.

A big shortfall in the federal budget will hardly help in the fight against the Islamists...

[davidbfpo]

The authors of this paper are:
The House of Commons Library provides research, analysis and information services for MPs and their staff.

What does the paper aim to do?:
This paper looks at the multiple challenges facing Nigeria as it prepares for presidential and legislative elections on 14 February 2015. These elections will take place amidst an atmosphere of even greater crisis and uncertainty than usual. Boko Haram’s insurgency in the north of the country continues unabated. Over the last year, President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling People’s Democratic Party have been accused of a complacent and incompetent response to the insurgency.
These developments, combined with deep divisions within the country’s elite, have resurrected old fears that the country might break up if the election aftermath is poorly handled.
However, some observers remain remarkably hopeful about Nigeria’s future, predicting that its enormous economic potential is on the verge of being realised at last.
The paper surveys the coming elections and then explores these hopes and fears about Nigeria’s future. It goes on to describe Nigeria’s relationships with the US, UK, EU, China and India before ending with a detailed country profile of Nigeria.
Link to 90 pg. report:http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP15-2/nigeria-2015-analysis-of-election-issues-and-future-prospects

[Bill Moore]

http://www.dw.de/ghanaian-president-backs-regional-anti-boko-haram-force/a-18202555

Ghanaian president backs regional anti-Boko Haram force


During a visit to Germany, President John Mahama of Ghana has called for an African Union-mandated force to "deal with the menace" of Boko Haram in Nigeria and neighboring countries.

It is finally getting to the point that countries in the region are pushing for collective action against BH. Read another report that some are questioning if it is even possible to have a legitimate election when so much territory is under BH control. However, I have seen no reports on elections being delayed.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to a WoTR commentary that identified the letter which was published in mid-December 2014, which is here in full:http://saharareporters.com/2014/12/15/why-we-could-not-defeat-boko-haram-army-commander-writes-powerful-letter-president

Here is Point 5 in full, with my highlight in bold:
This brings me to a recent occurrence which is my main purpose of writing this letter. As I mentioned earlier, due to the failure of the authority to address issues that I made mentioned, when a unit is attacked and overran by the BH not because the soldiers are unable to fight, but lack of weapons, ammunitions and communications equipment, the soldiers on many occasions will ran away, and a commander cannot stand and fight alone as a result of this. Presently seventy percent of commanders in the NE are facing Court Martial due to the reasons mentioned. We the commanding officers are very worried over this development. This is because we many soon find our self as victims of this maladministration from our higher authorities.

On the assumption it is true the picture given is not a great surprise and amidst the comments are some gems too - in particular the one that asks where does Boko Haram get hundreds of Toyota Hilux trucks from, with ample petrol?

The WoTR commentary:http://warontherocks.com/2015/01/besting-boko-haram/?singlepage=1

[davidbfpo]

omarali50 in a post six days ago asked:
I am curious to know how it was covered IN Nigeria itself? I assume there was massive coverage in the press and on TV?

Thanks to SWJ Blog's pointer to a Canadian report 'Boko Haram, ISIS and al-Qaeda: how the jihadists compare; Nigeria's Boko Haram getting less attention' there is some help:
Cdric Jourde, a West Africa expert at the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa, points out that in Lagos, Nigeria's and Africa's largest city, the newspapers don't have that much coverage of Boko Haram attacks either. Nigeria is a country divided between north and south, and the region where Boko Haram operates is the most remote, the poorest and the furthest away from Lagos and the south.
For people in the capital, the violence in the north is becoming banal, there's fatigue with the story, Jourde says.


The report has other points of note:http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/boko-haram-isis-and-al-qaeda-how-the-jihadists-compare-1.2916265

[davidbfpo]

Now whether the Nigerian national security adviser, a former colonel, is telling the truth or it is fiction, one must ask should he say this amidst a war and in London.

So what did he say? Referring to the fall of Baga:
.. this episode was “not something that anybody will be proud of....For anybody who has that much in store to say he is poorly armed or poorly equipped is being disingenuous to say the least,” he said. “Anybody who believes that he is not well armed, he is not telling the truth.

Unfortunately, we have a lot of cowards. There was a problem in the recruitment process – we all admit, that is all admitted. We have people who are using every excuse in this world not to fight. If you don’t want to fight, it’s not your fault: get out of the army. If you are there, there are certain things you are expected to do. For now, fighting is one of those things. If you don’t want to fight, don’t make excuses and say you are not armed, you are not equipped.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11362957/Our-cowardly-soldiers-avoid-fighting-Boko-Haram-says-Nigerias-security-chief.html

[SWJ Blog]

Boko Haram’s Resiliency Spells Trouble for West Africa (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/boko-haram%E2%80%99s-resiliency-spells-trouble-for-west-africa)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/boko-haram%E2%80%99s-resiliency-spells-trouble-for-west-africa) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[AdamG]

Islamic extremists are rampaging through villages in northeast Nigeria's Adamawa state, killing, burning and looting with no troops deployed to protect civilians, fleeing villagers said Wednesday.

More than 40 people have been killed in seven villages as houses and mosques have been burned down and businesses and homes looted this week, according to Emmanuel Kwache and state legislator Adamu Kamale.


Ba'malum, who lost her husband in the chaos of her flight, is among more than 200,000 people taking refuge in Maiduguri.

The city of two million residents appears to be surrounded. Three roads lead to areas held by Boko Haram. The militants are believed to be attacking the fourth road leading to the northern city of Kano, according to residents too scared to leave though they fear an imminent attack.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/boko-haram-rampage-in-northeast-nigeria-kills-more-than-40-1.2934479?cmp=rss

[davidbfpo]

Yes Nigeria needs help, step forward Chad:
On Thursday, neighboring Chad sent a warplane and troops that drove the extremists out of a northeastern Nigeria border town (Malum Fatori) in the first such act by foreign troops on Nigerian soil.
Link:http://www.pulse.me/ap/254100d2c6d94b6387006e317d893b78?

[davidbfpo]

The BBC World Services Thomas Fessy has a long eport, with film footage and charts on recent events @ Baga. He recently visited refugee camps across the border (Lake Chad) in Chad.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30987043

I missed spotting this, although I am not sure it is a good omen - as the Russian approach to COIN is hardly gentle and has no WHAM (not that the Nigerian state appears to be be gentle or use WHAM):
More than 1,200 Nigerian security personnel are in Russia receiving anti-insurgent training by Russian special forces. The trainees on return will form a nucleus of the special forces brigade to in particular combat the Boko Haram terrorist group.Link:http://www.eurasiareview.com/23102014-russia-training-1200-nigerian-special-forces/

I do recall Nigeria sent some personnel to North Korea for training too, awhile ago now.

[davidbfpo]

At last an explanation why the coverage is so limited. His account ends with:
This may give a partial answer to those who have been wondering these past few weeks why Nigeria doesn't lead the news bulletins day after day after day. There's not just the regularity of the attacks - another Boko Haram atrocity in Nigeria isn't going to knock a rare one in Paris off the front pages internationally - but the relentless lack of certainty.
Increasingly we like neat packages of information, something easily understood, with arresting images, that can be summarised in 140 characters or a hashtag.
In the Boko Haram insurgency, there’s never a complete picture, just snippets of unimaginable horror and an attempt to fill in the gaps before bracing for the next attack.
Link:http://blogs.afp.com/correspondent/?post%2Fnigeria-baga#.VNZjTSxj7Ai

[davidbfpo]

Sounds grand doesn't it:
Now the government and some private philanthropists are deliberately linking the two by rolling out schemes to provide economic opportunities and humanitarian support as antidotes to militancy.
The Presidential Initiative for Northeast Nigeria (PINE)

PINE is basically a Marshall Plan for the region, allocated US$25 million* for 2015. It links security to social and economic interventions in a classic hearts-and-minds “soft power” strategy. It promises “immediate relief to affected states in the northeast while putting the region on a strong footing for economic resurgence and long-term sustainable viability”, says an overview document.

According to PINE, an estimated 5.9 million people are affected by the crisis: 4 million are food insecure; 1.5 million are displaced (a higher figure than the government’s disaster agency, NEMA, uses); health facilities are closed; IDP host communities are stretched; and humanitarian access is severely limited. The violence has halted infrastructure projects, created massive unemployment and triggered the flight of skilled workers and traders south.
Link:http://www.irinnews.org/report/101101/softly-softly-the-humanitarian-schemes-aimed-at-countering-boko-haram#.VNkAz0ZOLCQ

Personally this sounds more like a "finger in the dyke" long after BH punched a gap in the dyke.

[davidbfpo]

A short Boko Harem video (90 seconds) which features HMG / light cannon on trucks / jeeps and at least one 105mm Anglo-Italian pack howitzer in action, which I assume has been captured from the Nigerian Army (which has them):http://sendvid.com/xjne3w98

Wiki on the gun:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTO_Melara_Mod_56 and a short film showing how it is a pack:http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=867_1296317636

[davidbfpo]

Thomas Fessy (BBC World Service) has a lengthy report on:
At last, Nigeria and its neighbours - Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Benin - have a plan for their Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to fight Boko Haram's Islamist militants. The plan has now been approved by the African Union.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-31695508#?

Numerous un-named diplomats are cited,, who are shall I say cautiously optimistic. Just how Nigeria, with possibly a new President will respond is very unclear IMHO.

[davidbfpo]

A South African report on the convoluted context for:
Beeld newspaper had reported that former SADF soldiers would form the core of a multinational team of private military experts, who were then en route to Nigeria, to help the NDF fight against Boko Haram militants. The 100-strong team had been tasked with training the Nigerian military to launch a massive campaign against the terrorist organisation.

They have been in country for a significant time already, involved in training some specialised NDF units. As per normal they are now deployed in an advisory capacity at the front. This includes being deployed with the NDF special forces, artillery, armour and infantry units on the ground. ‘Most of the gunships [Mi 24 Hinds] are being piloted by former SAAF members and they are flying a huge number of sorties, including nocturnal operations, with great success. There is also close involvement at HQ level, assisting in the planning of operations and the coordination / interpretation of the intelligence effort.
Link:http://www.issafrica.org/iss-today/business-as-unusual-goodluck-jonathan-privatises-nigerian-relations-with-south-africa

Clear shades of the campaign in SW Africa / Namibia.

[davidbfpo]

An all too short report from NE Nigeria, including the town of Baga and an optimistic ending after the official Nigerian Army spokesman's portion. Film clip:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-31902503
The transcript / report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-31902549

Unlike recent, external reporting no mention of mercenaries let alone the regional partnership - poorer natiosn helping their rich neighbour.

[davidbfpo]

In recent days I have spotted a few articles commenting on the apparent decline of Nigeria's military, made even clearer as I have stated before, as its poorer neighbours take the offensive.

This South African article is typical, except for this passage:
In a small hospital in the Diffa region of southeastern Niger, a roomful of Nigerian soldiers wait patiently for medical workers to change their bandages. Their bullet wounds seep blood on to the floor of the whitewashed chamber. The air is heavy with the smell of disinfectant. These are just a handful of the roughly 300 Nigerian forces that retreated across the border in November 2014, after militant Islamist group Boko Haram attacked the town of Malam Fatori in Nigeria’s northeast.
Now, lying three to a bed in a foreign country, they are silent and defeated. A stronger image for the hopelessness hanging over the nation’s army could scarcely exist.
Link:http://mg.co.za/article/2015-03-19-boko-haram-exploits-armys-decline?

So Nigeria has left its wounded soldiers since November 2014 in another country's hospital, it is now March 2015 - an image of hopelessness is hardly strong enough.

[Bill Moore]

Interesting insights on BH from South Florida University

http://www.usfglobalinitiative.org/newsletter/nigeria-boko-haram-analysis-highlights-issue-1/


•Since Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announcement to postpone the national election, Boko Haram has lost 80% of the territory in Northeast Nigeria seized as part of their Caliphate and has also suffered 73% of the total fatalities in the last 5 weeks of operations. The Nigerian security services (with multinational allies) are on the verge of holding true the guarantee to provide security for the February 28th elections. However, the Nigerian Chief of Army Staff, Lt General Kenneth Minimah indicated that elections may not hold in recaptured territories due to the absence of government structures as well as the challenge of providing security for returnees during the elections.
•Although military forces have weakened Boko Haram and “cleared” all but a few Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Borno state, the population does not have faith to return to their villages due to ongoing security issues and lack confidence in the military to provide long term security. The general perception in the north is that the physical recapture of towns and villages is not the same thing as providing security.

[davidbfpo]

The photo came via Twitter from a Nigerian-American and with this text:
Women in Maiduguri waiting for accreditation. There is no better evidence of rejection of BokoHaram

IIRC this city, Maiduguri, was surrounded by Boko Haram and under intermittent attack.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBLZrUEWgAEff6Q.jpg

[Bill Moore]

The photo came via Twitter from a Nigerian-American and with this text:

IIRC this city, Maiduguri, was surrounded by Boko Haram and under intermittent attack.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBLZrUEWgAEff6Q.jpg

While this is good news, rejecting BH is not enough, Nigeria must fight BH to the finish. It goes back to the strong do as they will, and the weak do as they must. Chad isn't overly impressed with the Nigerian military's fighting capability and will to fight. No doubt a lot of factors contribute to that, but the interesting point in the article below is we're back to the Cold War paradigm of partnering with anyone who will actually fight, versus partnering with partners of choice based on mutually aligned ideas and interest.

From the SWJ News Roundup

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/28/world/africa/chad-strongman-says-nigeria-is-absent-in-fight-against-boko-haram.html?ref=world&_r=0

Chad Strongman Says Nigeria Is Absent in Fight Against Boko Haram


“We want the Nigerians to come and occupy, so we can advance,” Mr. Déby complained in an interview at his palace last week. “We’re wasting time, for the benefit of Boko Haram,” he added. “We can’t go any further in Nigeria. We’re not an army of occupation.”


Diplomats and analysts acknowledge that the Nigerians have finally gotten into the fight, along with the help of South African mercenaries. But they still view Chad as an indispensable force. “I don’t see any way of successfully confronting the Boko Haram without Chadian assistance,” said the veteran diplomat.

That Western recognition for Mr. Déby and his army chafes, in turn, at the opposition and civil society in Chad, systematically locked out of power for years.

[davidbfpo]

I have often cited Virginia Comolli, from IISS as a SME on BH and Nigeria. Soon she has a book published, which has excellent reviews:http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/boko-haram/

Hat tip to save £ or US$ plus. If you register with Hurst for publication notices you can order a book pre-publication, at a reduced price and with free international P&P. This book is £16, not £20.

[Bill Moore]

http://theweek.com/articles/547474/nigeria-just-peaceful-election-big-deal

Nigeria just had a peaceful election. This is a big deal


And Buhari is not a perfect person. He is a former military ruler of the country and was known for a poor human rights record. But he is seen as above corruption, and many feel that his autocratic touch might actually be what the country needs to defeat the Boko Haram insurgency — which was reportedly behind an attempt on his life in 2014. And Buhari put forward a more inclusive face this cycle, uniting the opposition behind him and garnering the Christian votes that failed him in 2003.


Bit by bit, slowly but surely, under our very noses, Africa, known for extravagant dictatorship and corruption, is moving towards democracy, accountability, and the rule of law. It's been a two-steps-forward-one-step-back process, still enormously frustrating, but over the past decades the trend is unmistakable. Most experts agree governance and corruption is Africa's biggest bottleneck when it comes to development. And once that is improved enough, Africa's excellent demographics mean it will become an economic and political powerhouse.

[davidbfpo]

Vice News has just uplifted the first of three reports from Northern Nigeria, it appears they were embedded with the Nigerian Army. The first clip, 9.5 mins, features interviews with civilians in the main. It is grim, although not with graphic footage:https://news.vice.com/video/the-war-against-boko-haram-part-1?

[davidbfpo]

The next two Vice film clips are now available. The second is not great and in places one did wonder what the Nigerian Army was doing (from my amateur armchair):https://news.vice.com/video/the-war-against-boko-haram-part-2

The third clip shows the Nigerian Army on the offensive, to retake a town Bama maybe fourteen miles beyond Magiduri. Some softening up by 155mm artillery, the use of a small armoured team (T62 & BMP) and helicopter support, including Mi8 HInd gunships. Bizarrely the reporter refers to reports of Chadian help and foriegn advisers, then says it is an all-Nigerian victory:https://news.vice.com/video/the-war-against-boko-haram-part-3

There is a very short clip (starts at 10:46) which suggests the advisers were far more important, as they had wheeled APCs - which the Nigerian Army unit did not have and if you stop the film at 11:01 you see a parade with at least eight white advisers and two or three at the front conducting the parade.

[davidbfpo]

A round up in The Guardian on those black and white South Africans, who fought thirty years ago in their 'small wars', notably in SW Africa (now Namibia) and today "advising" in Nigeria:
Who are the members of this dad’s army, willing to risk death abroad and prosecution at home to fight someone else’s war? What is their motivation? And are they welcomed by those they are ostensibly helping?Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/14/south-africas-ageing-white-mercenaries-who-helped-turn-tide-on-boko-haram

Their activity is not popular back home, indeed the government says they will be prosecuterd - even if "advising" the Nigerian state.

Helmoed Heitman a veteran South African journalist on military matters sums them up best:
They have no problem working with black guys and don’t have a racial hangup. Most people in Africa have long since realised this. What they look for is someone with real shooting experience. The old SANDF are not always liked, necessarily, but they are highly regarded.As I posted in the current Nigeria thread you can spot them sometimes, in Post 213:
There is a very short clip (starts at 10:46) which suggests the advisers were far more important, as they had wheeled APCs - which the Nigerian Army unit did not have and if you stop the film at 11:01 you see a parade with at least eight white advisers and two or three at the front conducting the parade.Link:https://news.vice.com/video/the-war-against-boko-haram-part-3

In a Post 204:A South African report on the convoluted context for
Beeld newspaper had reported that former SADF soldiers would form the core of a multinational team of private military experts, who were then en route to Nigeria, to help the NDF fight against Boko Haram militants. The 100-strong team had been tasked with training the Nigerian military to launch a massive campaign against the terrorist organisation.

They have been in country for a significant time already, involved in training some specialised NDF units. As per normal they are now deployed in an advisory capacity at the front. This includes being deployed with the NDF special forces, artillery, armour and infantry units on the ground. ‘Most of the gunships [Mi 24 Hinds] are being piloted by former SAAF members and they are flying a huge number of sorties, including nocturnal operations, with great success. There is also close involvement at HQ level, assisting in the planning of operations and the coordination / interpretation of the intelligence effort.

[AdamG]

Sounds more effective than a Hashtag campaign.

[davidbfpo]

Cameroon, Nigeria's eastern neighbour rarely features in external reporting, partly as its president has been in power since 1982, so hat tip to WoTR for a review:http://warontherocks.com/2015/04/fight-boko-haram-by-aiding-cameroon/?singlepage=1

Cameroon the author says has similar features to Nigeria (its far richer n'bor), in particular between the Christian south and the poorer Muslim north.

[davidbfpo]

A short BBC Africa report, with the headline: 'Islamic State strengthens ties with Boko Haram':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32435614

Name changes then.
Boko Haram is a nickname, given to it by Nigerians when it was formed in 2002...its official name Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad, which in Arabic means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad".

Islamic State's West Africa Province (Iswap)

[davidbfpo]

Nearly missed this, note a secondary report:
...last week, Col Barlow discussed his company's role in a seminar at the Royal Danish Defence College, and in a separate interview with a Sofrep.com, a special forces website, he described in detail the "aggressive" strike force that was created to push Boko Haram onto the back foot. “The campaign gathered good momentum and wrested much of the initiative from the enemy...It was not uncommon for the strike force to be met by thousands of cheering locals once the enemy had been driven from an area. Yes, many of us are no longer 20-year-olds. But with our age has come a knowledge of conflicts and wars in Africa that our younger generation employees have yet to learn, and a steady hand when things get rough.”
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/11596210/South-African-mercenaries-secret-war-on-Boko-Haram.html

[Echo Bravo]

Amazed at how a journo can lift an article off one website, credit someone a co-founder of EO (who wasn't), add in his own imagination and interpretation of the situation, credit us (STTEP) with so much, add several years to my age - and get paid for it.
Poor research and an apparent lack of professional integrity ought to have no place in the media.

[davidbfpo]

Amazed at how a journo can lift an article off one website, credit someone a co-founder of EO (who wasn't), add in his own imagination and interpretation of the situation, credit us (STTEP) with so much, add several years to my age - and get paid for it.
Poor research and an apparent lack of professional integrity ought to have no place in the media.

Thank you Echo Bravo for that pithy assessment.:wry:

SOFREP have a five-part series on Eeben Barlow's work in Nigeria. Part 1:http://sofrep.com/40608/eeben-barlow-south-african-pmc-devestates-boko-haram-pt1/
Part 2:http://sofrep.com/40623/eeben-barlow-speaks-pt-2-development-nigerian-strike-force/
Part 3:http://sofrep.com/40633/eeben-barlow-speaks-pt-3-tactics-used-destroy-boko-haram/#ixzz3a1yhh2z8

He describes 'relentless pursuit' as:
Barlow’s key points to utilizing relentless pursuit include:

Troops eating while on the move
Combat tracking the enemy at a high rate of speed
Having the ability to leap-frog ahead of the enemy via helicopter
Utilizing communications
Emphasizing aggression
Maintaining proficiency in night operations
Outgunning the enemy

Part 4:http://sofrep.com/40675/eeben-barlow-speaks-pt-4-rejecting-racial-narrative/
Part 5:http://sofrep.com/40700/eeben-barlow-speaks-pt-5-external-drivers-nigerias-war/

[Echo Bravo]

Ironically the journo mentions us ageing white mercenaries despite the "palefaces" being heavily outnumbered by our black colleagues. And then he wrote his piece as if he had actually had an interview with me - which he hadn't.

[davidbfpo]

Lindsey Hilsum, UK C4's chief international reporter, has been in Northern Cameroon, where Nigerian activity appears to be pushing Boko Haram across the international border - which straddles the local tribe, numbers of whom are with Boko Haram.

There is a six minute fim clip:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKSWiKzC4P0

Her written report:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/13/on-the-border-and-in-the-crossfire-cameroons-war-with-boko-haram

[SWJ Blog]

Nigeria’s Critical Juncture: Boko Haram, Buhari, and the Future of the Fourth Republic (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/nigeria%E2%80%99s-critical-juncture-boko-haram-buhari-and-the-future-of-the-fourth-republic)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/nigeria%E2%80%99s-critical-juncture-boko-haram-buhari-and-the-future-of-the-fourth-republic) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

A short update in The Economist:
Yet in recent weeks the group has struck back from its remote redoubts, killing more than 200 people in the week to July 5th (and more since then) in a series of attacks across the north. Bombs were detonated in the major cities of Jos and Kano, neither of which had been attacked since February.

This is not a surprise, given there is new President, but maybe unwise hence my emphasis:
Nigeria’s army, by contrast, is finding counter-insurgency far more difficult than merely liberating captured towns. It has also lost much of the support that contributed to its victories earlier this year. Mercenaries who helped turn the tide in the north-east have been sent home and Chadian soldiers have pulled back over the border.
Link:http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21657386-jihadists-have-switched-holding-towns-waging-guerrilla-war-bombs-are?

[KingJaja]

Hi,

It's been a long time.

Boko Haram has come to stay, so the Nigerian State have to find a way to adjust to that reality.

The Nigerian State with an incompetent police, no biometric ID system, 10 million out of school kids and porous borders cannot solve this problem without fundamental changes & these changes will be very risky politically.

In addition to Boko Haram, there's a silent crisis in the Middle Belt (farmers vs herdsmen), separatist rumblings in the South East & of course, the Niger Delta.

Oil prices have dropped - & Iran looms over the horizon.

There is consumer inflation, purchasing power is steadily dropping. No economic policy direction.

There will be very difficult years ahead - and let nobody make you believe Boko Haram will be the only challenge or even the major challenge.

[davidbfpo]

Hi,

It's been a long time.

Kingjaja,

Indeed welcome back, it is good to have a local posting, truly "on the ground".

[davidbfpo]

A special article in the FT on Nigeria, which for once makes little mention of Boko Haram and has some intriguing passages. For once a bit of optimism:http://app.ft.com/cms/57d0408c-30b2-11e5-8873-775ba7c2ea3d

Stuck for time read the last two paragraphs.

[SWJ Blog]

Boko Haram: A Growing Threat in West Africa (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/boko-haram-a-growing-threat-in-west-africa)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/boko-haram-a-growing-threat-in-west-africa) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[SWJ Blog]

Exploring Networks Competing for Influence: Kano State, Nigeria (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/exploring-networks-competing-for-influence-kano-state-nigeria)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/exploring-networks-competing-for-influence-kano-state-nigeria) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report on Xmas Eve:
Nigeria has "technically won the war" against Islamist Boko Haram militants, President Muhammadu Buhari says.
He told the BBC that the militant group could no longer mount "conventional attacks" against security forces or population centres. It had been reduced to fighting with improvised explosives devices (IED) and remained a force only in its heartland of Borno state, he said.
Link:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35173618

There's nothing like being an optimist.

[SWJ Blog]

Justifying Jihad: A Case Study of Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/justifying-jihad-a-case-study-of-al-shabaab-and-boko-haram)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/justifying-jihad-a-case-study-of-al-shabaab-and-boko-haram) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[okpismart]

Based on the number of people that have been killed and the circumstances surrounding their deaths, one can easily conclude that Boko Haram is a far more brutal and ruthless terror organization than ISIS.

Don't believe me? SEE THIS (http://thesummary.com.ng/index.php/component/search/?searchword=boko%20haram%20suicide&ordering=newest&searchphrase=all&limit=20)

These are just few of the reported ones that happened this January. There are still countless unreported cases where Boko haram hit communities and wipe out every human being in them.

The bad thing is that the western press have shown very little concern when it comes to reporting their nefarious activities. Also the various governments of Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad are busy suppressing the statistics so as to hide their incompetence.

God save us

[davidbfpo]

A "long read" article, adapted from a forthcoming book; sub-titled:
How the tattered remnants of an Islamist sect transformed into a relentless terrorist army that Nigeria cannot defeat
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/04/join-us-or-die-birth-of-boko-haram

[davidbfpo]

Several news agency reports, presumably based on an official press release by the Cameroon, that a town, Goshi in northern Nigeria, was re-taken by Cameroon's special forces, with:
162 Boko Haram militants were killed over the weekend when its soldiers retook Nigeria’s northeastern town of Goshi from the militants. Reports also say that about 100 other people held by the militants, including Cameroonians and Nigerians, were freed by the country’s special forces....It took place under the banner of the multinational task force, and with intelligence and operational coordination with Nigerian forces..
Link:http://cctv-africa.com/2016/02/17/cameroon-kills-162-boko-haram-militants-frees-100-captives/

What is startling is how far Goshi is inside Nigeria, 162 miles from Kano and 164 miles from Maiduguri.

[davidbfpo]

A Nigerian academic's paper via Perspectives on Terrorism, only given a quick glance so far. The Abstract:
The activities of Boko Haram in the North-Eastern part of Nigeria have highlighted the need for more effective counter-strategies. Nigeria’s difficulties in defeating Boko Haram has security ramifications that go beyond its borders, especially for West Africa. Much has been written about the origins of Boko Haram. However, thus far there has been little analysis of the nature of the conflict between Nigeria and Boko Haram. It is this lacuna that this article seeks to address by applying the concepts of hybrid war, compound war, fourth generation warfare and unrestriced warfare to the confrontation between the state and its Islamist challenger

Link: http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/488/963

[davidbfpo]

Thomas Fessey, BBC World Service, has a written report and a short film report on Boko Haram activity in Chad:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35882396 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35898319

An earlier report from Nigeria by a BBC colleague:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35864054

[SWJ Blog]

The Boko Haram Insurgency: Applying the FID Model? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-boko-haram-insurgency-applying-the-fid-model)

Entry Excerpt:



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This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[AdamG]

The Defence authorities have said that not less than 800 members of the dreaded Boko Haram sect had surrendered to the military in the last three weeks.

The Acting Director, Defence Information, Brig. Gen. Rabe Abubakar, confirmed on Wednesday that 800 of the insurgents surrendered to the troops of the Nigerian Army in the last three weeks.

https://www.today.ng/news/national/102899/800-boko-haram-members-surrender-dhq

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this article on the abduction of hundreds of Christian schoolgirls from a school in NE Nigeria, now two years ago. A crime that led to a Twitter and more campaign that appears to have had no impact.

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/bringbackourgirls-two-years-after-the-chibok-girls-were-taken-what-do-we-know/

[davidbfpo]

Nigeria's other insurgency, in the oil-rich Delta Province, has started again; as if Nigeria hasn't got problems already.

I'd only recently read, in Virginia Comolli's book about the payouts:
Militants blew up strategic gas and crude pipelines belonging to Shell and Agip on Saturday in an increasingly fierce campaign (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/nigeria/12138976/Nigerian-separatists-threaten-to-blow-up-hijacked-oil-tanker-in-bid-to-free-jailed-British-radio-DJ-from-Peckham.html)that has chopped Nigeria's oil production in half, militants and residents said....The militants are also angry that the government is winding down a 2009 amnesty program that had paid 30,000 militants to guard installations they once attacked.Link with some more detail:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/28/nigerian-oil-production-halved-as-militants-blow-up-pipelines/

The BBC has a bit more, notably this:
...in the latest budget, President Muhammadu Buhari reduced funding for it by 70%, and has spoken of phasing it out entirely by 2018.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36414036

There is a main thread on Nigeria (excluding Boko Haram) and this thread maybe merged there:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=19394

[davidbfpo]

Some once more the regional "Prussians" are in their "technicals" and riding to the rescue of Niger, after a Boko Haram attack on a border town. Apparently all part of a regional coalition offensive, for more see:http://www.iphone.afp.com/afpv3/AFP_V3/News/JI/D4/newsmlmmd.urn.newsml.afp.com.20160609.doc.bo6sv.ht m

The regional "Prussians" are the Chadian army and a little insight into Chad's role in a BBC Profile:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13164688 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13164686

[AdamG]

Nigeria’s Tiny, Low-Tech Alpha Jets Have Flown in Brutal Wars Across Africa

Now the former training jets are blasting Boko Haram


Nigerian air force Group Captain Ayodele Famuyiwa, highlights the role of air power in the struggle against the brutal Boko Haram insurgency in northern Nigeria.

In addition to the Alpha Jets, Hind attack helicopters and F-7 fighters — Chinese-built copies of the MiG-21 — have taken part in the air campaign. But the Alpha Jets, taken out of near-retirement five years ago, also played in important — and at times controversial — role supporting Nigerian peacekeeping troops in Liberia and Sierra Leone during the 1990s.

This is the story of how a diminutive jet trainer made its mark on West Africa.

https://warisboring.com/nigerias-tiny-low-tech-alpha-jets-have-flown-in-brutal-wars-across-africa-5d843265d1b8?mc_cid=c70a9e4254&mc_eid=8447eea844#.um0aj594o