Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17 [Archive]

Firn

07-17-2014, 05:46 PM

Today a Malaysian airlines Boing 777 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-28354787) crashed in seperatist-controlled Ukrainian territory. RIP to the victims, a terrible, terrible tragedy for the friends and relatives.

It may be of course a freak coincidence of a fatal defect happened in this combat zone, which additionally happened without any warning and gave them no chance to report back. According to the Corriere (http://www.corriere.it/index.shtml?refresh_ce) the seperatists claimed before the news broke to have shot down an Ukrainain transport plane. Perhaps somebody could quickly check that.

It is needless to say that this potential seperatists statement would fit the hypothesis with by far the highest probability. They have recently shot down, with likely Russian delivered weapons and radar systems high-flying Ukrainian planes. Of course one can not rule out a missile directly fired by a Russian plane or a long range SA-system. The remote possiblity that Ukrainian forces might have shot it down, should also be considered.

P.S:

17:28:

According to Reuters, there are dozens of bodies scattered around the wreckage of the jet. The agency quotes an emergencies services rescue worker as saying at least 100 bodies had so far been found at the scene, and that debris from the wreckage was scattered across an area up to about 15 km (nine miles) in diameter.

Which should point to a missile.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 05:58 PM

Funny moment of chairborne internet warrior got busted

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NvFAvKBcVWw

Miserably looking guy in black, Budakov Dmitri is claimed to be internet-vigilante, who threatened a Gorlovka closed community admin, Alexei Petrov (known separatist supporter) to come after him with "huge gut-opener". It turned out that Petrov himself "invited" this guy to private conversation and offered him a knife combat with handicap - Budakov get a sharp blade, Petrov get a dull one. To the public disappointment, epic battle didn't happened - Budakov refused and even tried to apologise.

1. Stating the obvious and asking rethorical questions isn't a way to prove your initial claims.
2. Hitler Card and Appeal to Emotion in two lines - please, continue, I'am making the bookmarks ^_^

so comrade Russian expert and FSB agent---so how does it feel now that your President has lost millions in his investments and the Russian stock market crashed 6% and the Rubel fell 5%?

So are you now going state that the Ukrainians were responsible for shooting down the Airliner as it crossed over Donetsk?

come on comrade expert you know that the Ukrainians do not have the medium range SAM system BUK---right the same system that fired from Russian territory shooting down the AN-26.

but come on comrade mirhond why do not finally admit Russia is fighting on the ground inside the Ukraine and on the border with two Russian SF Regts.

http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/malaysische-passagiermaschine-ueber-der-ukraine-abgestuerzt-a-981631.html

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 06:04 PM

Malaysian airliner shot down near Donetsk and close to Russian border.

http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/malaysische-passagiermaschine-ueber-der-ukraine-abgestuerzt-a-981631.html

Looks like the sanctions will be getting tougher---BM 21 missiles being fired out of Russian territory, the Ukrainian AN 26 being shot down at a height of 6/7000MM which excludes MANPADS and now the Malaysian airliner being shot down over Donetsk at a height of 10,000M also near the Russian border.

There is a strong indicator that the mobile medium SAM system BUK was responsible and they have been spotted close to and or near the Ukrainian border.

What does it finally take from the EU as well as the US to go immediately to full sectorial sanctions especially the Europeans.

The second international standard that one does not fire SAMs and MANPADs at civilian aircraft and that one keeps them under control has been broken as in the annexing of the Ukraine again by Russia.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 06:08 PM

Today a Malaysian airlines Boing 777 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-28354787) crashed in seperatist-controlled Ukrainian territory. RIP to the victims, a terrible, terrible tragedy for the friends and relatives.

It may be of course a freak coincidence of a fatal defect happened in this combat zone, which additionally happened without any warning and gave them no chance to report back. According to the Corriere (http://www.corriere.it/index.shtml?refresh_ce) the seperatists claimed before the news broke to have shot down an Ukrainain transport plane. Perhaps somebody could quickly check that.

It is needless to say that this potential seperatists statement would fit the hypothesis with by far the highest probability. They have recently shot down, with likely Russian delivered weapons and radar systems ( propably supported by Russian data) high-flying Ukrainian planes. Of course one can not rule out a missile directly fired by a Russian plane or a long range SA-system. The remote possiblity that Ukrainian forces might have shot it down, should also be considered.

P.S:

Which should point to a missile.

Firn---check the heights of both the AN-26 shot down (height of 6/7,000M and now the Ukrainian claimed shot down of the 777 at a height of 10,000M.

No Russian MANPADs have that range--but the Russian mobile SAM system BUK does and several have been reported very close to the Russian/Ukrainian borders in the last few days.

There were solid rumors that a number of Russian armored elements made it over the "enhanced" security border five days ago--this could have been used to bring in the BUK system as the irregulars have been under massive air pressure by the SU 25s and they are short of MANPADs.

http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/malaysische-passagiermaschine-ueber-der-ukraine-abgestuerzt-a-981631.html

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 06:11 PM

Firn--after the falls today of the Russian stock market and Rubel averaging 4-6% wonder what the markets will do tomorrow morning especially since the Ukrainians are stating it was potentially a mobile SAM system ---which they claimed downed the AN-26.

Now what is interesting is that the Ukrainians were the ones stating BM21s were being fired across the Russia border and the EU/US went into a ho hum period until today when four different YouTube videos showed up and GoogleMap was used to come close to the firing point based on satellite vegetation comparisons.

Would tend to believe them now on the SAM BUK claims.

Also ---just shortly after the Malaysian airliner was shot down the Donetsk irregulars claimed a shot down but then went suddenly really really quiet when it was announced it was an airliner.

If one looks at their claims from the last few days it does appear they seem to have a mobile system in the Donetsk area---there were rumors of armored vehicles being driven over the Russian border five days ago---it could have been the BUK system as well--it does require a radar trained gunner which I do not believe is usually a standard Ukrainian job as the Ukrainians do not have the BUK.

From Voice of Russia today:

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_07_16/Self-defense-fighters-downed-two-Ukrainian-strike-aircraft-Donetsk-Peoples-Republic-9468/

Firn

07-17-2014, 06:22 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 06:35 PM

As far as I can tell the seperatist statement about the downed Ukrainian plane supposedly came through VKontakte at 16:50 (local time?) by Girkin, the so-called defence minister of Donetsk. Maybe some Russian speaker could check that.

Obviously it would only, if strongly increase the already high probability that the speratists shot down a civilian airplane causing the death of over 250 people.

Truly a terrible tragedy, it must be heart-breaking for the relatives. Clearly the Malaysian airline as well as the Russian and Ukrainian authorities will face hard question why the plane was flying over that area. While the Russian-supported seperatists only recently made it clear that they were able to shot down high-flying planes this must have send alarm signals to all the relevant actors.

Sectorial sanctions by the US have been off the table to a degree but there are rumors that the US bluntly told the Russians to get the MANPADs under control as the international unspoken norm by the superpowers is and was---they view the use of MANPADs against civilian aircraft a second WMD event equal to 9/11. Once that genie is out of the bottle it even impacts the Russians.

That view was also shared by Russia so this will cause the sectorial sanctions to now come as no international power player can back away from this event---publicly not to support the families of the killed will be hard to do especially when SAMs are in play.

When it became evident several weeks ago that the amount of MANPADs inside the Ukraine indicated Russian support there was a short article that indicated if an airliner was hit then that would change the entire US/Russia relationship causing the hardening of the sanctions.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 06:49 PM

Firn---initially the rebels claimed around 1600 European time they did not shot the airliner down.

Then two hours later they claimed they saw a Ukrainian SU 25 attack the airliner cutting it in half---which is a blatant lie as it is really hard from the ground to see what is happening at 33,000 feet as one can only see the condense trails from the ground unless it is fully clear skies and no clouds.

KEY: the agency reporting both shot downs was in fact Life News the main Russian misinformation reporting from inside the rebel territories from the beginning. What is more interesting is it was Putin during a conversation today with Obama whot told Obama of the crash.

Then this was twitted indicating they shot it down at around 1900 European time.

Separatists earlier today claimed shot-down of An26 mil-aircraft at Torez.

DNR says #MH17 down near Hrabove,20km away

http://t.co/MUBTmXYniz

KEY:---check the angle of flight of both points and the short distance---again an indicator of their shooting it down and now trying to cover it up---WHAT is interesting is that the Ukrainians are not stating they have lost a AN 26.

Think they have in fact shot it down as the two impact points and events are strangely close together.

Biggus

07-17-2014, 06:54 PM

Found this:

ITAR-TASS on June 29 (http://en.itar-tass.com/world/738262)
Self-defence forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic have taken control over a missile defence army unit equipped with Buk missile defence systems, the press service of the Donetsk People’s Republic told Itar-Tass on Sunday.

So far, no details are available about the number and condition of the missile systems taken over by the self-defence forces. The press service refused to comment.

The Buk missile defence system is a mobile medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system designed to defend field troops and logistics installations against air threats in conditions of heavy electronic countermeasures and intense enemy fire.

MANPADS are a problem, but they're spitballs in comparison to an SA11 or SA17.

My current impression is that it was thought to be a Ukrainian transport, rebels fired a missile, and MH17 was shot down. I would have thought that two-and-a-half weeks after a rebel takeover of a SAM complex, commercial aviation would have stayed well out of the area, but apparently my assumption was incorrect.

Biggus

07-17-2014, 06:58 PM

Then two hours later they claimed they saw a Ukrainian SU 25 attack the airliner cutting it in half---which is a blatant lie as it is really hard from the ground to see what is happening at 33,000 feet as one can only see the condense trails from the ground unless it is fully clear skies and no clouds.

I would be very impressed by the airmanship of a pilot able to take a Su-25 up to FL330, let alone make a pass at an aircraft cruising at slightly greater than the recorded top speed of the Frogfoot.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 06:59 PM

As far as I can tell the seperatist statement about the downed Ukrainian plane supposedly came through VKontakte at 16:50 (local time?) by Girkin, the so-called defence minister of Donetsk. Maybe some Russian speaker could check that.

Obviously it would only, if strongly increase the already high probability that the speratists shot down a civilian airplane causing the death of over 250 people. Still, despite the low probabilities one should not rule out a defect, direct Russian or Ukrainian involvment. Needless to add that considering the flight height the cause of the crash happened many km mostly west from where the debris landed.

Truly a terrible tragedy, it must be heart-breaking for the relatives. Clearly the Malaysian airline as well as the Russian and Ukrainian authorities will face hard question why the plane was flying over that area. While the Russian-supported seperatists only recently made it clear that they were able to shot down high-flying planes this must have send alarm signals to all the relevant actors.

European flight controllers did not close the airspace as the height of travel was 33,000 feet well above the standard MANPADs.

Commercial airspace is now closed for civilian aircraft.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 07:09 PM

DNR does in fact have the BUK SAM system as confirmed just recently.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/17/malaysian-airline-shot-down-by-buk-missile-system-verified-in-possession-of-pro-russian-militants/

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/17/malaysian-passenger-plane-crashes-in-ukraine-near-russian-border-with-295-people-aboard/

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 07:27 PM

Seems that the DNR commanders cannot get their stories correct----shortly after the videos of the black smoke coming from the airliner crash site hit the net he tweeted the following which is the translation.

It appears that he thought it was a AN 26 that had been hit---and his in tweet he points out the AN 26 crash site which is exactly that of the Malaysian airliner.

Now with the social media firming up that the DNR shot down the airliner with the BUK system---what is Putin going to do blame what the West?

The video proof that he mentions is in fact comes from the Malaysian airliner crash site and is all over the web.

The full translation follows:

In the region of Torez, a An-26 was just shot down, crashing behind the “progress” mine. They warned: do not fly in “our skies.” And here is the video-proof of the next “aircraft downing.” It fell behind a slagheap. Not in a residential area. Civilians didn’t suffer. And there’s also information about a second downed airplane, supposedly a Su (Sukhoi).

kaur

07-17-2014, 07:28 PM

Firn

07-17-2014, 07:28 PM

So more and more points towards the Russian-supported seperatists. Social media and the need to deliver speedy propaganda cuts of course both ways.

That the plane came from Amsterdam further reduces the probability that the Ukrainians shot it down, as it should have been monitored and followed by the Ukrainian air traffic controllers.

----

I might add that news abouts such 'captured material' can easily be a smokescreen for weapons delivered by Russia. It reminds me a bit about the tank story...

Of course while everything seems to indicate that the Russian-supported speratists or maybe regular Russian forces shot the plane down one should not rule out a defect or an Ukrainian missile.

P.S: And to think that close relatives of mine flew a week ago only a bit more south of MH17 also towards South-East Asia. It is incredibly sad to think about the victims and their relatives, terrible indeed.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 07:42 PM

It is now appearing that the DNR rebels were aiming at a AN 26 that was flying a similar flight pattern as the Malaysian airliner--the AN 26 was carrying supplies that were going to be air dropped into a surrounded Ukrainian army group of units.

Appears that the Ukrainian military has the voice commands over radio indicating that the command to fire was given against the "supposed' AN 26 but the missile when launched maneuvered towards the airliner instead.

There are now indications being reported by local Ukrainians that a rebel armored convoy is on the move from one of their controlled towns towards the Russian border and it includes a BUK system--looks like they are trying to cover their tracks and get back into Russia.

Die Informationen ber den Absturz der malaysischen Boeing 777 im Raum Torres in der Nhe des Dorfs Grabowo wurde durch eine Quelle im Verteidigungsministerium der Ukraine besttigt. Die Quelle im Kommandostab Sden erluterte Zensor.Net, dass das Passagierflugzeug aus einem Gebiet beschossen worden sei, das von Terroristen und russischen Legionren besetzt ist. Ukrainische Luftabwehrkrfte oder sonstige ukrainische Truppen gebe es dort nicht. In der Nhe des Abschussorts des Passagierflugzeugs verlief die Flugroute eines ukrainischen Militrtransporters des Typs Il-76, der unterwegs war, um Hilfsgter fr eingeschlossene ukrainische Truppen abzuwerfen. Die Quelle im Verteidigungsministerium nimmt an, dass die russische Luftabwehr den Befehl gab, das ukrainische Transportflugzeug zu vernichten, aufgrund eines Fehlers der Raketenangriff aber auf die zivile Passagiermaschine erfolgte.

According to operational data from Information Resistance group, today around 1:30 PM EEST a convoy of terrorists was recorded in the area of Snizhne [Donetsk Oblast].

The convoy included 3 tanks, 2 armored personnel carriers [APCs], a cargo truck with insurgents and a cargo truck with a mounted large-caliber machine gun. And also a tow truck with a gun mount, which transported the “Buk” air missile system.

The convoy was moving in the direction of Dmytrivka [Donetsk Oblast].

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 07:48 PM

Statement from Ukrainian Air Traffic Controllers who were talking at the same time to Russian Airspace Controllers indicate shot down as reason for crash.

http://maidantranslations.com/2014/07/17/source-in-ukrainian-air-traffic-control-crashed-malaysian-airlines-plane-was-shot-down/

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 07:54 PM

FSB guy Girkin says that they shot down An 26.

https://mobile.twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/489802664264212480/photo/1

29.06 DPR claims that they got BUK.

http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1287030
http://i.imgur.com/7kAnlaS.png

This source claims that BUK was in Sneznoe today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/evromdn/status/489820988730003456

This news says that Ukrainian air force was attacking rebels in Snezhnoe 15.07.

http://rusvesna.su/news/1405427799

Rebels shot down that day Su 25

http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1136996/

Ukrainians first said that Russian forces are quilty, but rebels said they did it with Buk.

http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/7/17/696045.html

kaur--there are reports coming from the Snezhnoe area that an armored convoy (was spotted today at around 1300 Ukrainian time) including at least one BUK is headed towards the Russian border---probably making a run for it trying to get it back into Russian territory.

Some are indicating the command to fire was given in the Russian militay and it was voice intercepted by the Ukrainians.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 08:23 PM

Seems like the DNR leaders cannot get their stories correct.

By RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service

July 17, 2014
Shortly before reports surfaced that a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 had crashed in eastern Ukraine, a social media site purported to belong to a separatist leader claimed that insurgents had shot down an aircraft.

In a post on VKontakte, Russia's largest social media site, which has since been taken down, separatist leader Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, wrote: "In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured."

The AN-26 is a Soviet-built twin-engine transport plane used by the Ukrainian military. Torez is a small city of 80,000 located some 40 kilometers east of Donetsk. Included in the post were two videos that showed a rising plume of black smoke in the distance.

The claim was posted at 5:50 pm Moscow time, shortly before reports surfaced that the Malaysian civilian aircraft, on a flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, had crashed in eastern Ukraine in the same area near the Russian border.

A Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser, Anton Herashchenko, claimed the plane had been shot down by a ground-to-air missile.

Andrei Purgin, the self-styled first vice premier of the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic, told Interfax the separatists do not have weapons that could shoot down a plane flying at an altitude of 10,000 meters.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 08:30 PM

Found this:

MANPADS are a problem, but they're spitballs in comparison to an SA11 or SA17.

My current impression is that it was thought to be a Ukrainian transport, rebels fired a missile, and MH17 was shot down. I would have thought that two-and-a-half weeks after a rebel takeover of a SAM complex, commercial aviation would have stayed well out of the area, but apparently my assumption was incorrect.

The Ukrainians have not stationed SAMS anywhere in the area due to the lack of rebel aircraft---even in the face of recent Russian air inclusions into the Ukraine they still have not moved any of their mobile units which the BUK is.

The Ukrainians do have the last time I checked the SAM 6s and the BUKs but have never activated their sites and I think the BUKs are stationed more in the Kyiv and western regions as it has a long range.

So you are stating the SU 25 story released by the rebels is a smoke screen--there has been an armored convoy on the move reported today heading towards the Russian border which had a BUK system within it all just after the global reporting on the possible shot down started.

There is also some indications that the BUK was actually under Russian control and the firing commands came from the Russian side of the border---Ukraine has evidently intercepted voice commands.

Firn

07-17-2014, 08:41 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 08:51 PM

FSB guy Girkin says that they shot down An 26.

https://mobile.twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/489802664264212480/photo/1

29.06 DPR claims that they got BUK.

http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1287030
http://i.imgur.com/7kAnlaS.png

This source claims that BUK was in Sneznoe today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/evromdn/status/489820988730003456

This news says that Ukrainian air force was attacking rebels in Snezhnoe 15.07.

http://rusvesna.su/news/1405427799

Rebels shot down that day Su 25

http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1136996/

Ukrainians first said that Russian forces are quilty, but rebels said they did it with Buk.

http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/7/17/696045.html

kaur---appears that the rebels cannot get their stories straight.

19:35
LEADERSHIP OF SELF-PROCLAIMED DONETSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN MALAYSIAN PLANE CRASH IN UKRAINE - DPR SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBER

19:34
DPR SAYS MILITIA DOES NOT HAVE ARMS, WHICH COULD BRING DOWN BOEING AT 10,000-METER HEIGHT - DPR FIRST DEPUTY PM

kaur

07-17-2014, 08:56 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 09:00 PM

IIRC the Ukrainians did move SAM towards the Russian border to be prepared against Russian strikes, but I don't have the source ready. In any case the airplane cam from Amsterdam, flying from Poland and wester Ukraine in the international corridor which was not officially closed.

It is actually pretty likely that the complex air-defence systems, especially if delivered by the Russians, supporting the seperatists are operated by Russian citziens and are tied through some channels into the Russian air defence network and Russian intelligence. If this is the case I'm quite curious how much of that traffic was intercepted, geo-located and decrypted by the Ukrainians and others. If we consider the relative short time those sophisticated have been stationed in seperatist areas a lot of the communications might have been indeed wireless Of course only selected snippets,if at all, will be made public.

Firn---there is a second possibility---in the reported armored convoy moving towards Russia was a BUK---there was just the single armored vehicle mentioned.

It could be that they have just the missile carrier and not the related radars that are needed for accurate control---maybe since they are not the best and greatest trained AD types their fired the missile thinking that it was similar to a MANPAD and just lobed it up at what they thought was the AN 26 flying the same general route. The BUK is designed to puncture holes in the aircraft and not to destroy it and it appears the plane came down in initially relatively intact when it hit the ground and exploded.

Heck there are now rumors coming out of Donetsk Republic reps that the Ukrainians were trying to shoot down Putin's plane as he returned from Brazil---but he was already in Moscow.

They are having a really tough time putting distance to their earlier social media victory claims of a shot down of a AN26.

kaur

07-17-2014, 09:02 PM

Intercepted tape where rebels are talking about downed plane. They did it.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FvHmf1U5NuY

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 09:03 PM

Outlaw, this source in Russian talks about 2 Buk complexes. One was in Snezhnoje and other was seen in Torez.

http://vesti.ua/donbass/61551-prinadlezhawij-dnr-buk-nahoditsja-v-snezhnom

Lonely Bukon the way in Snezhnoje.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MM_RVp2NdmA

There was talk that a Ukrainian AD site was taken over but I never did seen where that was.

Secondly the armored convoy spotted was coming out of Snezhnoje and contained a least one BUK weapons carrier---but some of the reports just mentioned the missiles but no related radar carriers which are needed to control the firings.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 09:10 PM

kaur---

Yuriy Butusov
17.07.2014, 20:46
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

A high-ranking official, a source of Censor.Net with the ‘Yug’ [South] operational command provided commentary on the circumstances surrounding the crash of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing near Torez [Donetsk oblast]:

“Ukrainian aviation made no flights over Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts on July 17. Ukraine can easily prove complete lack of our [Ukrainian] aircraft in the sky–the last flight was made on the evening of July 16, a day before the Boeing tragedy. The nearest positions of Ukrainian troops are located 50 km away from the crash site. We do not control the territory above which the Boeing was destroyed.

“We have no long-range anti-aircraft weapons in the ATO [anti-terrorist operation] area. The military anti-aircraft facilities our units are equipped with – Shilka and – have a range of up to 5 km. Therefore, we can state with utmost responsibility that Ukraine is not involved in the Boeing crash, and we can prove that easily.

“The plane was destroyed by a Russian ‘BUK’ surface-to-air missile system, operated by Russian military specialists. On July 14 and 16, Ukrainian IL-76 transport planes passed near the route taken by the Malaysian Airlines plane, but at lower altitudes–6,000 to 7,000 meters. Evidently, the Russian military mistook the Boeing for our [Ukrainian] transport, and ignored its altitude and the fact that the liner was following an international air corridor.

“We have no doubts that any international commission will quickly establish all circumstances that will confirm the above information, and help shed light on this act of international terrorism committed by Russia.”

kaur

07-17-2014, 09:16 PM

Outlaw, just listen to the tape and that's it. This is the "no comments" moment.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 09:16 PM

Intercepted tape where rebels are talking about downed plane. They did it.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FvHmf1U5NuY

kaur---wonder where mirhond these days.

The power of social media---you have to love it if you are an intelligence collection type.

They will argue the Ukrainians faked their voices or it was the people living on the moon that did it.

Interesting will be what will Putin do now as he does not have his Russian nationalist fire brands under any kind of control and he is responsible for turning them loose.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 09:18 PM

Outlaw, just listen to the tape and that's it. This is the "no comments" moment.

kaur--maybe we should ask mirhond for his "comments" really do miss him in this event as it flies in the face of everything he has argued.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 09:40 PM

kaur---The German der Spiegel is indicating that the DRP claimed on their own Twitter page today they had captured a BUK along with a photo of the system.

Photo was then it was taken down within hours. Is there anything indicating what Ukrainian AD site was raided in the last few weeks?

Auf der Twitterseite der "Volksrepublik Donezk", also der Separatisten, wurde am Donnerstag ein Bild des "Buk"-Raketensystems zur Flugzeugabwehr verffentlicht. Die Milizen hatten es von der ukrainischen Armee erbeutet. Wenig spter verschwand das Bild von der Seite.

mirhond

07-17-2014, 09:56 PM

Intercepted tape where rebels are talking about downed plane. They did it.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FvHmf1U5NuY

If there will be satellite imagery of the missile launch from separatist controlled areas - it will be sledgehammer argument, what you post here is probably fake, as usual.
I give 60% a priori probability that separatists did it (they have Buks, probably crews and desire to shot down anything flying around) and 40% that ukropians did it by mistake.

upd. there is a good explanation how it happened: In the shadow of recent ####ups in the border bottle-neck and AN-26 military transport shot down previously, Ukrainian command desided to test adversary's air defences by sending civilian plane to fly over combat zone as a bait while military transport IL-76 is trying to sneak into on the lower altitude - brilliant move.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 09:59 PM

kaur--- Strelkow is having a hard time now with his twitter statements---he finally admitted that his first statements were correct and then he stated that he had been mislead by civilians in the area of the crash BUT then he posted that the "shot down was a mistake.

Maybe he is concerned that the voice intercepts are now getting into the public domain.

Reports are that the rebels are not allowing crash rescue teams and crash investigators into the crash site area.

From focus today:
Allerdings spricht er in seinem Posting von einer AN-26, einem von der ukrainischen Armee genutzten Transportflugzeugtyp. Mglicherweise haben also Separatisten die Maschine der Malaysian Airlines abgeschossen, ohne zu wissen, dass es sich um ein ziviles Passagierflugzeug handelte. Strelkow, der die Authentizitt des Beitrags mittlerweile besttigt hat, schob seine Ausfhrungen spter auf ein Missverstndnis. Er habe falsche Informationen von der rtlichen Bevlkerung erhalten.

Strelkow selbst postete nach Informationen von FOCUS-Korrespondent Boris Reitschuster aber auch, der Abschuss sei "ein Fehler" gewesen.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 10:08 PM

If there will be satellite imagery of the missile launch from separatist controlled areas - it will be sledgehammer argument, what you post here is probably fake, as usual.
I give 60% a priori probability that separatists did it (they have Buks, probably crews and desire to shot down anything flying around) and 40% that ukropians did it by mistake.

hello comrade Russian expert mirhond---I in fact predicted you would state the recordings are fakes---you never seem to change do you and yet you call yourself a Russian expert.

So you do believe the Russian Today statements from today that the Ukrainians wanted to shot own by "accident" Putin's plane as he returned from Brazil---but he was already in Moscow talking to Obama so that fallacy turned out to be a fallacy or better yet a blatant falsehood of many they have published.

You did notice that Life News first reported both the AN26 shot down as well as the crash.

So comrade Russian expert mirhond---you even gave 40% fault to the Ukrainians and what fallacy did you contribute that to inside that fallacy of your FSB mind?

I cannot believe you are so predictable with the fake argument---the FSB is slipping these days with who they hire.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 10:10 PM

kaur

07-17-2014, 10:13 PM

About Strelkov and DPR sites.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0717/Web-evidence-points-to-pro-Russia-rebels-in-downing-of-MH17

Russian version based on anonymous official sources. Assasins tried to shoot down Putins plane.

http://www.newsru.com/russia/17jul2014/version.html

Ps. mirhond, have you studied this source http://www.idinahui.net

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 10:23 PM

hello comrade Russian expert mirhond---at least in your previous statement you gave at least a 60% fault to the separatists.

so if in your own mind 60% is high then why did they send the black boxes to Moscow when they should have gone to Boeing and Malaysian Airlines the owners and builders of the aircraft---that is the standard international process for air crashes regardless of where they occur.

The “black box” from the airplane traveled to Moscow “for investigation” Russian radio Kommersant FM reported.

so comrade Russian expert you really expect a "honest" statement coming out of all places Moscow as to what is on the tapes?---come on comrade mirhond even that exceeds all your previous fallacies.

one criminal just protecting another criminal would you Russian expert say?

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 10:37 PM

well comrade Russian expert mirhond you finally bunked even yourself with all your talk about fallacies---it appears that your 60% separatist fault is actually 100% and the intercepts are not fakes by the way.

so now since you have been proven as a fake and FSB officer maybe you should not be writing much in the future as your fallacies have all turned out to be fakes as well.

so is it true comrade Russian expert the Malaysian airliner was shot down because it was "carrying spies" come on mirhond you even have to admit that your nationalists are out of control but then they are Russians right so therefore you are just as responsible as you have been supporting them here all the time.

Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was allegedly shot down by a group of Russian-backed Cossack militants near the village of Chornukhine, Luhansk Oblast, some 80 kilometers north-west of Donetsk, according to recordings of intercepted phone calls between Russian military intelligence officers and members of terrorist groups, released by the country’s security agency (SBU).

One phone call apparently was made at 4:40 p.m. Kyiv time, or 20 minutes after the plane crash, by Igor Bezler, who the SBU says is a Russian military intelligence officer and leading commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. He reports to a person identified by Ukraine’s SBU as a colonel in the main intelligence department of the general headquarters of the armed forces of the Russian Federation Vasili Geranin regarding the shot down plane, which is about to be examined by the militants.

The second intercepted conversation released by the Security Service of Ukraine was apparently between militants nicknamed “Major” and “Greek” immediately upon inspection of the crash site.

“It’s 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft,” Major is recorded as saying, as he admitted to seeing no weapons on site. “Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.”

In the third part of conversation Cossack commander Nikolay Kozitsin talking to an unidentified militant cynically suggests that the Malaysia Airlines airplane could've been carrying spies, as, otherwise, it would have no business flying in that area.

Read the full transcript of an intercepted phone call below:

Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).

Vasili Geranin: Pilots. Where are the pilots?

IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.

VG: How many minutes ago?

IB: About 30 minutes ago.

SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.

“Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.

“Grek”: Yes, Major.

"Major": The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.

“Greek”: Well, what do you have there?

“Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.

“Greek”: Are many people there?

“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).

“Greek”: What kind of aircraft?

“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.

“Greek”: Is there anything left of the weapon?

“Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.

“Greek”: Are there documents?

“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson.

Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.

They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?

Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 10:55 PM

hello comrade Russian expert well maybe no longer a Russian expert mirhond--

Obama has formerly stated the airliner was deliberately down by a missile--all assumptions are especially after the voice intercepts which are accurate as I am assuming the NSA listened as well.

so are you ready for the next round or sectorial sanctions--especially on Gazpom?

mirhond---you guys really blew this one did you not? so killing 23 Americans and countless Dutch and 15 other nationalities-- over 295 blown out of the sky including children is what justified in the creation of the New Russia?

well at least you got at least 60% correct in your comments.

OUTLAW 09

07-17-2014, 11:02 PM

comrade mirhond---you lied the 60% is now over 200%--the US is indicating that they have radar emission intercepts clearly showing the BUK being under rebel control inside rebel territory.

so now mirhond---are you finally ready to state you are a FSB officer.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 06:12 AM

I seems that Putin feels he and his actions have no responsibility in the shot down---it is the other guy's fault not me attitude.

It was a supposedly "enhanced secure border" that all those Russian mercenaries seem to come through which is in fact Putin's responsibility since he gave orders to close the border---or maybe he did not really give the orders.

Dear colleagues!

You know that a terrible event occurred today in the sky over Ukraine, an awful tragedy -- a civilian plane was killed, 285 people, according to preliminary information, were killed.

On behalf of the Russian leadership and the Russian government, we express condolences to the bereaved families, the governments of those countries whose nationals were on that plane. I ask you to honor their memory.

(A moment of silence)

In this regard, I want to note that this tragedy would not have happened if there were peace on this land, if the military actions had not been renewed in southeast Ukraine. And, certainly, the state over whose territory this occurred bears responsibility for this awful tragedy.

I have already given instructions to the military departments to provide all necessary assistance in the investigation of this crime. And I also ask the government of the Russian Federation through the available civilian agencies that have the capability to do everything for a thorough investigation of this event. We will do everything -- everything that depends on us, anyway -- in order that the objective picture of what happened is part of the public domain here, in Ukraine and in the rest of the world. This is an absolutely unacceptable thing, and no one has the right to let this pass without the appropriate conclusions and without all of us having objective information about the incident.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 06:22 AM

Interesting is that the mercenaries in their intercepted cell calls seemed to assume that there should have been no aircraft over their area.

Both Air Traffic Control Centers Kyiv and Rostov were still taking flights through the area--but Russia via Rostov signaled a closed area starting actually today.

Then this appeared via Interfax yesterday evening which seems to confirm that they rebels had been informed of the air space closure which did not occur.

So the question begs to be asked just how close is the Russian government working together with the mercenaries and did someone really make a serious mistake and or knew the airliner was coming through?

Interfax:
21:09 Area above forceful operation in Ukraine closed for flights three days ago - Rosaviatsia source

Seriously doubt that both ATCs did not know anything about a "supposed" air space closure.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 11:18 AM

Let's count the different Russian arguments coming out of Moscow in their attempt to push the shot down onto the Ukraine and shove it away from Russia and Putin.

But first was it not Putin who in a public statement to assure the West that he was attempting to secure the Russian border---he did call for "enhanced measures" after that more Russian mercenaries and heavy weapons crossed that "enhanced secure border".

1. it is the fault of the Ukraine as they are still fighting (Russia seems to forget Russian mercenaries are the deep cause of the fighting) and any country has the right for self defense
2. it is the Ukraine's' fault because it happened over their territory
3. a SU 25 shot down the airliner
4. the Ukrainian government was trying to shot down Putin's aircraft missed and hit the Malaysian airliner--but wait he was already in Moscow for a long number of hours before the shot down
5. "Statements by Kiev officials that such systems... were not used in air attacks arouse serious doubts," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.
6. and today these new ones----the airliner was in the Ukraine AD space in that area---which is a subtle misinformation ---so the motto is thus they must have shot it down because thy had AD units in the area
7. a Russian military test pilot via Interfax stated that it had to be a Ukrainian missile that hit the airliner

At this rate we will have ten reasons for the airliner shot down by Saturday if they keep up this public media misinformation rate and none of them have anything to do with either Russia and or Putin.

I have never heard Russia flatly deny the voice intercept tapes admitting the shot down as either fakes or the work of the CIA or the SBU---thus that tells me they are real. In this business an none response is in fact a valid unspoken yes response to an accusation.

It appears the Voice of Russia has lost it's own "Voice"---not a single comment in two days nor even a mention of the airliner being shot down. For a really talkative party line web service that preaches the party line this is strange.

Maybe we should ask mirhond why?

Reference point 5---it appears the Russians when writing the article failed to ask just what the Ukrainians going to shot at as the mercenaries have no aircraft. The radar station is the central means for a battery to be con trolled in a unified fashion---Russian failed to note that the mercenaries claimed they captured a single armored vehicle with the missiles but no central radar system on the 29th and posted a photo of it which "disappeared" from the web but not before it was grabbed. Nor did they comment on the online convoy video. Russia knows the Ukrainians are maintaining an active AD posture in order to watch Russian military aircraft movements thus that type of radar is always in sweep mode--nothing new there.

“Throughout the day on July 17, Russian means of radar surveillance intercepted the operation of the Buk-M1 battery’s Kupol radar station located in the region of the populated area of Styla [30 kilometers south of Donetsk],” the press service said in a statement.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 11:50 AM

And the Russian misinformation war drags on ---after finding all kinds of reasons why the shot down was the Ukrainian's fault Russia and Putin failed to mention this was stated last week in Moscow.

maybe mirhond would like to give it his best fallacy comment.

so mirhond---who were the "talented electrical specialists" he is talking about and what is this "civil society" that is providing all the Russian weapons you claim are not there?

A week ago pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Kurguinjan said that separatists have an anti-aircraft missile system “Buk” and that they are ready to use it. This statement was published on Youtube on the 13th of July.

According to Kurguinjan militants form the illegal armed formations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions will receive weapons and armoured vehicles.

“Civil society delivers a large number of armoured vehicles and other equipment on private terms. Russian civil society will never cross the line and will supply very modest equipment. They will not supply “Iskander” or C-300 or other ambitious systems because it is not in competence of a civil society to do so and because it is not needed,” – said the pro-Kremlin political analyst.

According to him separatists have SAM “Buk”, which was allegedly “seized from the Ukrainian military”.

“Our talented electricians will of course repair it. I think that the seized form the Ukrainian bandits-baderites system “Buk” it is already repaired. They will restore it in the near future. It will be restored. It is possible that there are few of them,” - said Kurguinjan.

He stated unequivocally that the militants are ready to use the weapons. “I do not recommend to Kyiv to make any foolery,” – said Sergei Kurguinjan

Notice that the statement today of the Ukrainian radar being used seems to have been overridden by this statement---meaning just how could the radars be turned on when they just got to the Donetsk area---and that reported by Russians?

MOSCOW, July 18 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian battalions of 27 Buk-M1 missile systems able to hit targets across the entire altitude range have been deployed near the city of Donetsk, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement Friday.

They are trying so hard to control the narrative --to the point they themselves are getting it confused.

mirhond

07-18-2014, 11:50 AM

Ps. mirhond, have you studied this source http://www.idinahui.net

Poor kid, without valid arguments you degraded to blunt insults.

here, read an article from Ukrainan media, where general prosecutor rejects that any air defence stuff has been captured by separatists http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/07/18/7032278/

you tend to believe everything Ukrainian side says, so now you have to invent something new to blame separatists. (I give you a hint: they got Buks elsewhere ;) )

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 12:02 PM

Poor kid, without valid arguments you degraded to blunt insults.

here, read an article from Ukrainan media, where general prosecutor rejects that any air defence stuff has been captured by separatistshttp://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/07/18/7032278/

you tend to believe everything Ukrainian side says, so now you have to invent something new to blame separatists.

come on comrade Russian expert mirhond---you have completed bunked your own fallacies----noticed that you in fact gave the separatists a 60% chance for having shot down the plane. BY the way your own written words 60%.

read my long list of the statements coming out of Moscow trying to blame the Ukrainians---they are up to seven different statements which at some point begins to make you and your bosses look like fools does it not mirhond.

of course I can think of several more that have not been used as you all are so predictable these days as the misinformation war hit a wall the second the airliner was shot down and now you have to defend the killing of children and vacationers do you not mirhond?

BY THE WAY mirhond---noticed in a statement released by Putin yesterday during a meeting---the Russian used by Putin used the term "killed" when he referred to the crash.

YOU DO REALIZE this is a Russian military term for the use of a missile strike to "kill" an aircraft---this is common to him as he has just completed a whole series of AD exercises that he personally attended right mirhond?

So in fact even your Putin "admits" a SAM was used---he just is trying to figure out who to blame but you yourself already did---60% the mercenaries was your answer right mirhond?

so what fallacy are you going to use this time mirhond--- yours, the mercenaries or yes even Putin's?

Firn

07-18-2014, 12:10 PM

Combining the open-source clues and facts it seems virtually certain that the Russian-led seperatists are responsible for the death of almost 300 civilians from all-around the world. The big question is now how will the (Western) world react to this mass-killing, especially in relations to Russia?

The West has talked so far much about de-escalation while allowing Russia do escalate and escalate. Personally I always supported less mild sanctions against the Kremlin exactly because in my opinion far too mild and limited ones were encouraging Putin to push the borders of violence causing more and more deaths. Stronger support for Ukraine should have been the other main initiative. It would also helped Russia itself, which Putin is pushing into a dark place.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 12:13 PM

Poor kid, without valid arguments you degraded to blunt insults.

here, read an article from Ukrainan media, where general prosecutor rejects that any air defence stuff has been captured by separatists http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/07/18/7032278/

you tend to believe everything Ukrainian side says, so now you have to invent something new to blame separatists. (I give you a hint: they got Buks elsewhere ;) )

come on comrade Russian expert mirhond---do you not think blunt is actually quite good these days?---something you tend to run from right?

being blunt---how do you justify the killing of children, parents, and vacationers in the name of "self determination" that both you and Putin claim the mercenaries are fighting for? or better killing civilians who are not even residents of either country in the name of "New Russia"?

come on comrade let's keep the discussion blunt as blunt tends to weed out the chaff from the grain and my friend comrade you are right now backing the wrong horse and it is hard to now defend them---where is the "self determination" in the killing of children at 33,000 feet---when you all have been "complaining" about those Nazi's killing all those innocent DRP/LRP civilians---cannot have it both ways comrade.

you are now getting your fallacies tangled up are you not?

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 12:17 PM

kaur

07-18-2014, 12:23 PM

New tape from SBU about BUK-M and plane. At the moment in Russian. According to interception manned Buk arrived from Russia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgdqdklrqDA&feature=youtu.be

Ray

07-18-2014, 12:30 PM

Air India flight with 126 on board was right behind MH 17
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Air-India-flight-with-126-on-board-was-right-behind-MH-17/articleshow/38601142.cms

Just curious as to who did it to MH 17?

And why were international flights overflying a war zone?

Being not involved, can I know the reality sans the hostility, disinformation, psy ops and propaganda?

Firn

07-18-2014, 12:38 PM

Just curious as to who did it to MH 17?

And why were international flights overflying a war zone?

So far all points that the (Pro)-Russians did it. We will see.

The airlines and European air traffic control didn't react quickly enough to the latest SAM strikes against high-flying Ukrainian planes. It was not the 'usual' manpad thread anymore for some time. They got their risk assessment terribly wrong, indeed.

Biggus

07-18-2014, 12:39 PM

And why were international flights overflying a war zone?

It seems to be boringly normal. Until the shootdown, there was a NOTAM that the airways above 32kft were open as per normal. This had actually been upgraded from a prior NOTAM to not fly below (IIRC) 24kft, because it had been deemed impossible that the MANPAD threat would exist to airliners above that altitude. The increase to FL320 is a fairly recent phenomenon, and I'm not entirely sure the area wasn't closed off entirely following reports of rebel-held Buk systems.

In any case, flying over warzones is fairly normal. Several airlines fly over Afghanistan on their normal routes, and I'm aware of a few that are negotiating to use Somalian airspace too.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 12:46 PM

comrade Russian expert mirhond--I will make you an open bet here at SWJ---those two Flight Data Recorders that the mercenaries say they found which is in itself interesting as the debris field was over 16 kms long but again then miracles do happen.

I will bet they never seen the light of day---meaning Russia/Moscow will claim they were so damaged nothing was of use and or there will be long gaps in the recordings again leading to the statements from Moscow nothing of value or they were so badly damaged we could not even open them.

Then I will bet you that Moscow will not even turn them over to either the Malaysian Airlines and or Boeing the maker of the airliner---why because those data recorders will have in fact recorded the actual missile impact.

Moscow if it is being honest, truthful and a correct international law follower should have offered the West immediate access to those data recorders should they have not mirhond? So what is Moscow running from mirhond?

Why not because they know what is on them and that can never see the light of the truth as that then would reveal all their previous statements to have been outright lies.

See mirhond---those recorders are designed to withstand even the impact and fire that happened if they were in fact still in the tail of the plane wonder if the Cossacks knew that?

By the way---if the reporting from the crash sight is correct and it has tended to be correct complete bodies and large pieces of plane debris were falling along that 16 kms debris field---that is the telltale sign of a massive explosion and then the structural collapse at 33,000 feet.

Believe me there will be trace amounts of explosive residue on all the plane parts nearest to the explosion and that cannot be simply "wiped clean" as well as the pellet holes from the pellets that are in the SA11 warhead

This is the same type of debris field seen in the Lockerbie Pan Am crash caused by a bomb---which I know all about as five friends of mine died in that flight as they were in a part of the plane blown out still in their seats into the long debris field.

Good luck to the Cossacks in trying to wash a 16 kms debris field.

NOW what are you going to bet if in fact I am right mirhond---a copy of your Russian ID or passport will be enough do you not think as you refused that a while ago after offering it did you not?

Biggus

07-18-2014, 12:54 PM

So you are stating the SU 25 story released by the rebels is a smoke screen--there has been an armored convoy on the move reported today heading towards the Russian border which had a BUK system within it all just after the global reporting on the possible shot down started.

Apologies for not replying earlier. Yes, the suggestion that a Frogfoot might have shot down an airliner at that altitude is as credible as suggesting that Santa Claus was his wingman. It's very, very unlikely, and even if somehow the aircraft could physically maneuver at that altitude, there would be an enormous amount of radio chat in directing the pilot to intercept, considering it doesn't have a radar set up to intercept aircraft. It's in roughly the same class of aircraft as the A-10 is.

mirhond

07-18-2014, 12:55 PM

New tape from SBU about BUK-M and plane. At the moment in Russian. According to interception manned Buk arrived from Russia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgdqdklrqDA&feature=youtu.be
Do you even realise that Buk-M consists of 5 (five) vehicles?

Launch vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2a/BUK-M2E%2C_MAKS_Airshow_2009.jpg/800px-BUK-M2E%2C_MAKS_Airshow_2009.jpg

loading vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a3/9A316_Buk-M2_-_parade-rehearsal_%28without_missiles%29.jpg/800px-9A316_Buk-M2_-_parade-rehearsal_%28without_missiles%29.jpg

command vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/52/Command_Post_9S470-M1-2_2.jpg/800px-Command_Post_9S470-M1-2_2.jpg

target acquisition and designation vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/49/Buk-M1-2_9S18M1-1.JPG/450px-Buk-M1-2_9S18M1-1.JPG

missile guidance vehicle

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ru/b/bd/%D0%A0%D0%9F%D0%9D_%D0%97%D0%A0%D0%9A_%D0%91%D1%83 %D0%BA-%D0%9C2.jpg

what we see on video? Blurred image of the solo launch vehicle. What we hear - anonimous vioces evicting themselves. Conclusion - entire video is Bravo Sierra, as usual. Stop pouring ukrainian media BS here, find real stuff, like you did when "The tale of three little tanks" was popular. I believe you can do it.

ps. To outlaw Please, by the name of God, Dear Lord, or what else you worship, DO NOT CITE THIS ENTIRE POST six times in the row! Have mercy on other users, pretty please!

kaur

07-18-2014, 01:00 PM

mirhond, you genius, it seems that you don't understand how Buk may operate. Go and do your homework. If this is done, then visit this site again http://www.idinahui.net/

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 01:11 PM

Do you even realise that Buk-M consists of 5 (five) vehicles?

Launch vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2a/BUK-M2E%2C_MAKS_Airshow_2009.jpg/800px-BUK-M2E%2C_MAKS_Airshow_2009.jpg

loading vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a3/9A316_Buk-M2_-_parade-rehearsal_%28without_missiles%29.jpg/800px-9A316_Buk-M2_-_parade-rehearsal_%28without_missiles%29.jpg

command vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/52/Command_Post_9S470-M1-2_2.jpg/800px-Command_Post_9S470-M1-2_2.jpg

target acquisition and designation vehicle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/49/Buk-M1-2_9S18M1-1.JPG/450px-Buk-M1-2_9S18M1-1.JPG

missile guidance vehicle

what we see on video? Blurred image of the solo launch vehicle. What we hear - anonimous vioces evicting themselves. Conclusion - entire video is Bravo Sierra, as usual. Stop pouring ukrainian media BS here, find real stuff, like you did when "The tale of three little tanks" was popular. I believe you can do it.

ps. To outlaw Please, by the name of God, Dear Lord, or what else you worship, DO NOT CITE THIS ENTIRE POST six times in the row! Have mercy on other users, pretty please!

come on comrade Russian expert mirhond---even the Russian mercenaries "claimed" they captured only one vehicle---now if you are the Russian expert you think you are ---the missiles can in fact be launched from the onboard radar that the armored vehicle itself has---all the other radars are used to coordinate a larger AD area.

The radar is there if you really look at the missile carrier---all to be seen---allows it to fire on the move as it was designed to accompany moving armored units.

The SAM6 had the same onboard capabilities.

BUT co0mrade Russian expert you already knew that ---right?

Now for a key question what are the "electricians" doing in the first place working on the captured BUK from the 29th and there are indications that the "civil society" and who are they pray tell?---delievered one or more actual missiles to be fitted on the "repaired" S11 missile carrier.

Hey all of the above para came from a Russian statement in Mosco last week.

The delivery of the S11 missile or missiles has been confirmed by NATO intelligence today---that is if you read German.

Ein hochrangiger Nato-Offizier sagte SPIEGEL ONLINE am Freitag, es gebe mittlerweile berzeugende Geheimdienst-Erkenntnisse, dass das Flugzeug mit einer Rakete aus dem Bestand der russischen Armee abgeschossen wurde. Solche Systeme wurden laut dem Nato-Mann in den vergangenen Wochen von russischer Seite an die Separatisten geliefert. Bis heute gebe es kein schlssiges Motiv fr die prorussischen Krfte, ein ziviles Flugzeug anzugreifen. Deswegen msse man von einem "tragischen Versehen" der Separatisten ausgehen.

mirhond

07-18-2014, 01:51 PM

mirhond, you genius, it seems that you don't understand how Buk may operate.

I didn't ask you to introduce me to the misteries of air defence, Mr. Technical Sergeant. Why you just don't bunk this particular video and find a better one, with real-time footage of the launches for example, or provide us with american satellite images, as you did before?

kaur

07-18-2014, 02:09 PM

mirhond, before posting in military forum something about military stuff, just find out how things work. So many beautiful pics with nil value to advance conversation.

Do you rember the last SBU tape about OSCE hostages? Who was in charge? Cossack Kozytchin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YuW8uej6Gk&app=desktop

Who was in charge, when OSCE observers were freed? Cossack Kozytchin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk76ot4JDA4&app=desktop

Who was talking in yesterday's tape about downed spies in passanger plane? Cossack Kozytchin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5E8kDo2n6g

Kidnapping and shooting down passanger plane is enought to find out who is Mr Kozytchin.

http://vvd2003.narod.ru/ataman2010.htm

AmericanPride

07-18-2014, 03:47 PM

From the available information, it seems likely that the insurgents misidentified the civilian aircraft as a military target. Given that in the past trained military personnel (e.g. American sailors, Israeli intelligence) have made similar mistakes, it's not surprising to me that the insurgents have also made that mistake. It's also clear that Ukrainian and other assessments of insurgent air defense capabilities were mistaken (which IMO raises interesting questions about the role of airpower in counter-insurgency when a credible air defense threat exists). Of course, both sides are putting their media machines into high gear but unless evidence is revealed that either the insurgents or Moscow ordered the intentional destruction of a civilian aircraft, I do not see how this materially changes the situation in Ukraine.

AmericanPride

07-18-2014, 04:50 PM

BayonetBrant

07-18-2014, 05:54 PM

The personal political partisanship that is overwhelming this thread, with its underhanded name-calling and barely-veiled insults, have dramatically reduced its usefulness as any sort of dispassionate information source.

I can find propaganda (for either side) in plenty of places.

I come to SWJ to avoid the shouting matches and read about events as analyzed by professionals with experience in the field whose lives have (literally) depended on "getting it right".
Armchair fanboys are a dime a dozen and their shouting-match takeover of what had previously been a useful information source overwhelming the more reasonable voices I prefer to read around here.

davidbfpo

07-18-2014, 07:01 PM

This thread refers to the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 being shot down over eastern Ukraine. It has caused some controversy here, discussions on the Ukraine / Crimea have done before and so the posts have been moved here.

The main thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5978

Biggus

07-18-2014, 07:24 PM

Also - the recorded claim by an insurgent leader that the airliner was a spy plane, while outlandish, is not surprising given the circumstances. The conflict has been going on for 3 months with a number of aircraft destroyed, so I'm sure there was some genuine surprise that civilian airliners were conducting routine flights (professionals here and elsewhere have expressed similar surprise). Also - when the Israelis downed a civilian airliner over the Sinai many years ago, they made they same claim about the aircraft being a spy plane while the US Navy claimed the Iranian airliner it destroyed had the signature of a fighter aircraft..

I seriously doubt that the presence of civilian air traffic was a surprise to anyone sitting in a TELAR vehicle in Donetsk. You're correct that many aviation-minded folks are surprised that air traffic was still being routed through the area, but it's not unreasonable to be surprised in this case. If you weren't conducting flight operations in the area, you probably wouldn't know that they were taking place. There have been an enormous number of flights that have overflown the battlespace. In fact, MH21 (an A380) was intending to follow a very similar route, and was diverted around Ukrainian airspace mid-flight.

Edit: Here (http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bild-981813-726883.html)is a reference for flights over Ukrainian airspace over the last week.

Worthwhile also keeping in mind we're also discussing a three decade old air defence system that is highly automated and designed to be employed by conscripts. Therefore, I would hazard a guess that there would be a number of former servicemen who are sufficiently familiar with the employment of the Buk. There may not need to be an enormous amount of Russian assistance required.

AmericanPride

07-18-2014, 07:50 PM

Firn

07-18-2014, 08:02 PM

Worthwhile also keeping in mind we're also discussing a three decade old air defence system that is highly automated and designed to be employed by conscripts. Therefore, I would hazard a guess that there would be a number of former servicemen who are sufficiently familiar with the employment of the Buk. There may not need to be an enormous amount of Russian assistance required.

Good point. So far it seems that only TELAR (transporter erector launcher and radar ) vehicles of the Buk were seen in seperatist country. This begs the following questions:

1) Were only TELAR vehicles operated within the seperatist area?
2) Were other components* present but not detected by OSINT?
3) If is 1) is true was there target acquistation support from Russia?
4) How were the seperatists able so far to identify civilian planes?

Some TELAR vehicles spread over the speratist territory would of course result in the smallest footprint relative to the whole Buk system but lack smoothly integrated target acquisition and command&control. The latter might of course come from 'outside' sources but with considerable higher friction. The quality of training of the crew is obviously unknown.

A seperatist civilian traffic control doesn't seem to exit, of course. However hundreds of planes have passed over that corridor in recent days so some checks must have been in place. To which extent was the idenfication done by seperatists and to which degree from Russian territory. This and other services might be hard to distinguish in practical terms, but friction must have been considerable.

*command vehicle, target acquisition radar (TAR) vehicle, transporter erector launcher (TEL)

P.S: Good to see that the post were shifted to a new thread.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 08:27 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 08:29 PM

Good point. So far it seems that only TELAR (transporter erector launcher and radar ) vehicles of the Buk were seen in seperatist country. This begs the following questions:

1) Were only TELAR vehicles operated within the seperatist area?
2) Were other components* present but not detected by OSINT?
3) If is 1) is true was there target acquistation support from Russia?
4) How were the seperatists able so far to identify civilian planes?

Some TELAR vehicles spread over the speratist territory would of course result in the smallest footprint relative to the whole Buk system but lack smoothly integrated target acquisition and command&control. The latter might of course come from 'outside' sources but with considerable higher friction. The quality of training of the crew is obviously unknown.

A seperatist civilian traffic control doesn't seem to exit, of course. However hundreds of planes have passed over that corridor in recent days so some checks must have been in place. To which extent was the idenfication done by seperatists and to which degree from Russian territory. This and other services might be hard to distinguish in practical terms, but friction must have been considerable.

*command vehicle, target acquisition radar (TAR) vehicle, transporter erector launcher (TEL)

P.S: Good to see that the post were shifted to a new thread.

The SAM 11 launcher is mounted on an armored tracked vehicle as with the SAM 6 system the tracked vehicle has it's own tactical acquisition radar to allow it to fire on the move. The other radar systems are designed for fixed operational acquisition covering a large AD area---thus they are not really needed when one just wants to lob a radar guided missile into the air until it locks on.

Kind of like a really big MANPAD on steroids---and Biggus is correct it was designed for conscripts in mind as are all of the Russian weapon systems.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 08:39 PM

Taken from Kyiv Post today:

Here is the voice intercept video indicating the BUK was brought over the Russian border together with a crew which answers Biggus's comments. There is an English translation at the end of the Post article.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgdqdklrqDA

Here is the video link for the Russian AF pilot who was asking for clearance to shot down the Ukrainian SU25 starts around minute six. Sorry in Russian..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pInHtYTsiU

What begs the question is---if the SBU can intercept and release these materials just what are the superpowered NSA and CIA doing?---surely they picked up "something".

What is missing from the story is there is another SAM 11 launcher moving around that was captured on 29 June---tweet photo was published together with the reported damage then deleted early yesterday---although the electronics were damaged by the Ukrainians before it was captured.

There is a Moscow based report that has been released indicating a great electrician was able to repair it and that all the weapons coming into the Ukraine from Russia are being smuggled in via a "civil society". That mobile launcher evidently did not have any missiles thus missiles are coming in via Russia.

Ukraine’s security service, known as the SBU, on July 18 published additional intercepted telephone conversations that further implicate Russia in the downing of the Malaysia Airline Flight 17, killing all 298 people on board on July 17. The conversations allegedly took place between Russian military intelligence officers and their armed proxies who discussed the delivery of a Buk missile system from Russia ahead of the downing of the Malaysian passenger jet.

Classified by NATO as SA-11 GADFLY, Buk missile systems are advanced, radar-guided surface-to-air missile systems, or SAM in military lingo. Four Russian SAM systems could knock down a passenger jet flying at 33,000 feet, according to Defense Tech, the same altitude at which the Malaysian airliner was flying when it was hit.

In the intercepted conversations, the Russian officers and Kremlin-backed militants express relief in finally getting their hands on a Buk-M system, one of four modified versions of the Russian SAM. Kyiv believes the Russians in Donetsk Oblast used the Buk-M2 because Ukraine’s military doesn’t have them in its arsenal.

Until recently, Ukraine had enjoyed relative air superiority over the Kremlin-backed militants.

But on July 14, a missile allegedly fired from the Russian side – it’s unclear whether it was air-to-air or ground-to-air – shot down an An-26 Ukrainian military transport plane in Luhansk Oblast near the Ukrainian-Russian border, according to the Ukrainian government.

On July 16, a Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet was allegedly shot down by an air-to-air missile fired by a MiG-29 jet in Russia, according to Andriy Lysenko, spokesperson for the National Security Defense Council.

To destroy the Su-25, on July 16 at 6:55 p.m. near the town of Amvrosiyivka, “the Russian Air Force ordered the pilot of a MiG-29 plan to use an R–27T (AA–10 Alamo–B) medium range Infra Red homing air–to–air missile.

This type of missile cannot be detected by the Su–25’s SPO–15 radiation warning receiver, and neither can it be detected by satellite surveillance systems or post–launch surveillance systems,” stated Lysenko. “During the air fight, Russian fighter aircraft homed in on the Ukrainian plane three times for a guaranteed rocket launch.

After the target was acquired with the help of an onboard quantum optical location station, the MiG–29 fired one missile at the Ukrainian plane. It is only thanks to the skillful anti–missile maneuvers of the Ukrainian pilot that a direct hit was avoided. The missile hit the motor nozzle and the pilot crash–landed the plane.”

At a press briefing in Kyiv on July 18, Lysenko showed a radio conversion allegedly between the Russian MiG-29 pilot and his base as he attempts to shoot down a Ukrainian aircraft. The conversation starts after the sixth minute.

Concerning the delivered Buk system from Russia, the SBU says it crossed into Ukraine at 1 a.m. on July 17 close to the town of Sukhodolsk. Later that morning at 9 a.m., it arrived in Donetsk, but was later moved to Pervomaisk. After the Malaysian passenger jet was shot down, the Interior Ministry's intelligence unit recorded a crawler tractor carrying a missile system moving towards the border of Russia. The video clearly shows missiles, with the middle one of three missing.

“We're analyzing this and other collected information. We think this is the very Buk system which shot at the civilian plane flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur,” Interior Ministry Avakov said. He said that the terrorists were “trying to hide evidence of the terrible crime.”

Below is the video and full English-language transcript of alleged conversations between Russian military intelligence officers and their proxies regarding the receipt and delivery of a Buk system from Russia

jcustis

07-18-2014, 08:48 PM

Then you have missed a great misinformation campaign targeting SWJ and yet he is still with us.

Where were you when he came aboard?

Stop. BayonetBrant has a point, and it doesn't matter where he was when mirhound started posting. I will not let you take him to task while also making what I take to be a passive aggressive statement about operations of the Council.

We all have someone here we more or less decide to ignore, so start doing so with mirhound and stay on the course of posting facts or opinions supported by facts.

EVERYONE: Just disengage from mirhound and ignore him if you believe he is attempting to spread disinformation.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 08:50 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 09:07 PM

Appears now that the DNR leader Girkin who posted his joy yesterday over the shot down of a AN 26 and then backpedaled when it became known that it was a civilian airliner seems to be getting weirder and weirder with his statements--maybe the pressure it getting to him.

The statements of Girkin posted on his Vkontakte page on July 18 appeared to be a lot more confusing.

According to Girkin, the plane’s passengers were already dead when the plane went down.

“I just talked to two people who were gathering corpses, both from Shakhtarsk (the city where the plane crashed) so they came to the spot only 30 minutes after the tragedy. I am writing from their words. They said many corpses were totally bloodless and looked like blood had clotted long before the catastrophe,” the leader of Russian backed insurgents wrote.

Сiting the same locals, Girkin also said a strong putrid smell was noticed in the area of the plane crash. “This smell could not have appeared in a half an hour in any weather, and it was cloudy, not very hot yesterday,” he wrote. According to the terrorist leader there was a special medical cargo on board.

In the same statement Girkin-Strelkov admitted plane pilots were alive and did die as a result of the crash. “The cabin, and its front is in a good condition, is literally spilled with their blood all over,” he wrote.

NOTE: if the missile exploded behind the cockpit it would have severed at that height the cockpit due to decompression and metal fatigue as the 777 is mainly composite with a stiff inner structure and it would have spiraled down and actually would have remained fairly well intact which he is confirming---much in the same way the Lockerbie PA AM flight did as it split into a number of major pieces after the onboard Semtex explosion which would have been about the same amount of explosive power in the missile warhead.

Meanwhile Girkin’s posts claiming the credit for shooting down a Ukrainian AN-26 military transport plane were deleted and his official group on Vkontakte started backpedaling, stating that information was not confirmed and was just reposted from another source.

mirhond

07-18-2014, 09:21 PM

Handmade infographics made with flightaware.com images. :)

How it's happened that previous flights flew ower Zaporozhie, but this unlucky one got itself downed over Luganskaya oblast'?

http://i60.tinypic.com/snccjl.jpg

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 09:36 PM

So much for the DNR stating that the OSCE would have access to the crash site----initially the same DNR "claimed" that both flight data recorders had been found and sent to Russia then via Interfax the Russian FM stated today they were to remain in the Ukraine and now the DNR "claims" they have not found them. Who would have though that flight recorders have become the "Russian hot potato" that even the Russian FM is running from.

Interfax 18:00 Russia not going to take black boxes from Ukraine crash site - Lavrov (Part 2)

If I were the DNR I would not want them "recovered" either since a missile impact would be recorded due to the sounds generated as well as vibrations of the impact.

Well so much for that from Russia demanded thorough investigation. When will the world stop believing anything that comes out of Moscow as Putin has repeatedly side stepped, lied, and double spoke for the last four weeks and nothing that he promised he would do has actually been done.

Interfax 19:51 Russia ready to provide maximum assistance to probe plane crash in Ukraine - Lavrov tells Malaysian counterpart

Interfax 17:17 DPR leaders promise to ensure safety for air crash investigators
After they have captured and held three different OSCE inspector groups who would trust the DNR?

From Reuters today:
(Reuters) - Monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe were not able to secure an access corridor on Friday to the site where a Malaysian airliner crashed in eastern Ukraine, the OSCE's chairman said.

"They did not have the kind of access that they expected. They did not have the freedom of movement that they need to do their job. The crash site is not sealed off," Thomas Greminger told Reuters by telephone.

"In the current circumstances, they were not able to help securing this corridor that would allow access for those that would want to investigate," he said.

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 10:06 PM

Cover-up: Ukraine rebels destroying all links to MH17 air atrocity

UN demands full inquiry but armed Russian separatists block access to crash site amid confusion over black boxes

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/18/separatist-links-malaysia-airlines-mh17-removed

There is also confusion over the black boxes and other devices apparently salvaged from the plane. A rebel military commander initially said he was considering what to do with them, while another rebel leader, Aleksandr Borodai, contradicting his colleague, said the rebels had no black boxes or any other devices.

The Ukrainian interior ministry added to fears of a cover-up when it released video purportedly taken by police showing a truck carrying a Buk missile launcher with one of its four missiles apparently missing, rolling towards the Russian border at dawn . The video could not be independently verified.

Other material on rebel social media sites was being deleted, including pictures showing the alleged capture of Buk missile vehicles by rebels from a Ukrainian air base last month.

This is the critical point in the article:
Video footage allegedly taken on Thursday appeared to support the idea that pro-Russia separatists had been to blame. It showed a Buk battery seemingly being moved in the rebel-held area between Snizhne and Torez close to the crash site. A still picture allegedly shows a missile in vertical launch mode beside a supermarket in Torez. However, the location has still to be established.

NOTE:

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 11:10 PM

The photo of the BUK parked near some stores has now been geolocated.

Pro-Russian Separatists' BUK Geolocated in Torez

20:08 (GMT)

The picture of the BUK missile system said to be in the possession of pro-Russian separatists which we reported 17 July, parked behind some stores in a town in southeastern Ukraine, has now been geolocated by Aric Toller on Gagarin Street in Torez.

One has got to love YouTube---this dash cam video helped locate the BUK accurately.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-_GmpkC52A&feature=youtu.be&t=1m30s

OUTLAW 09

07-18-2014, 11:26 PM

Anyone have any ideas why the Russian separatists are stealing the dead passenger bodies?

From Daily Beast:

Pro-Russian Separatists Reportedly Steal 36 Bodies from Malaysian Airliner Crash

21:20 (GMT)

Separatist fighters from the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" (DPR) have reportedly stolen 36 bodies of people killed in the downing of the Malaysian airliner, rbc.ua reported.

The press service of the Donetsk Region State Administration made the announcement, citing eye-witnesses.

The Interpreter has translated the statement:

"After the end of of the active stage of work at the site of the tragedy, representatives of the DPR arrived at the village of Rassypnoye and stole 36 bodies of victims of the air crash. Armed fighters drove away rescue workers and took communication devices from most of them. They loaded the bodies into a truck like sacks. According to the fighters, they intend to take the bodies to Donetsk."

We have no verification of the report, but the fact that the statement was made by a local state administrator adds a certain credibility to it.

carl

07-19-2014, 12:47 AM

BayonetBrant

07-19-2014, 04:16 AM

The photo of the BUK parked near some stores has now been geolocated.

I missed the earlier link - where's that photo?

Thanks!

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 08:09 AM

I missed the earlier link - where's that photo?

Thanks!

BB---photo was embedded in a short tweet input under the individual named in the report ---that geolocated the BUK---was on Daily Beast.

Appears that the tweet and photo as well as the dash cam link have been taken off---looks like the IC had it pulled for oblivious reasons as it was a damming photo and I do not think Putin and co. realized it could in fact be found. Dash cam link still works.

Dash cam link again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-_GmpkC52A&feature=youtu.be&t=1m30s

Why do I say the IC pulled it---during the entire Ukrainian event a number of really true open source available to the world type of OSINT photos, tweets with links and YouTube videos have been pulled only to later turn up being released by DoD. The problem is that when DoD gets their hands on any open and available to all OSINT they immediately classify it at the S level.

Do not think it was pulled by the author who released it or maybe DB released it without his authority---maybe just a copyright thing not the IC but DB does have close ties to DoD for a lot of their online reporting.

As it was in fact parked right next to a food store chain that has been providing food to the separatists. It was the exact marking of the food store outside logo and painting of the store that turned up in the dash cam video.

The tweeter has some experience in video mining and geo locating as then he tied the location from the dash cam to the exact Google Map location from an overhead shot.

At about 1:38 into the video you will see just in passing on the left side of the road a outside advertising yellow and red in color--was the same markings on the photo---this dude is good first to find the video and then to notice a really quick pass by of the colors and then to triangulate it to Google Map.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/18/live-breaking-news-on-flight-mh17-and-ukraine.html

There were two videos yesterday via YouTube that showed the BUK---one in an armored convoy and the second one on a white tractor trailer. There are reports out there that indicate both videos contained accurate timestamps and some are trying to geolocate the locations of the two videos as well.

Just as they did from the four YouTube videos depicting BM 21 fire from inside Russian on a Ukrainian military convoy which resulted in high losses of personnel and equipment.

So if war is defined by an aggressive military strike from one country into another country then in fact Russia is at war with the Ukraine especially after these videos which were also used to geolocate the BM 21 fighting point inside Russia. In blunt terms it was indeed an act of war by Russia and yes that strike kind of disappeared from the news cycle due to the airliner.

That BM 21 military strike by Russia on the Ukraine went under in the global reporting as it was replaced by the downed airliner---makes one wonder if the shot down was in fact an attempted coverup of the BM 21 strike as harsh as that sounds---but in Russian terms it would have been accpetable.

JMA

07-19-2014, 08:36 AM

I have been following this thread from the beginning and must admit to have enjoyed the cut and thrust as it has developed over the months even though some have posted stuff without sources etc. I appreciate it can be bewildering for those who stop by periodically as they don't know the history and the characters involved. Sorry that I am out of town for a while and not able to contribute as much as I would like but certainly appreciate the contributions and enjoy the back and forth of Outlaw, kaur, Firn and Mirhond and other bit players.

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 08:41 AM

Does anybody know how long the training course is for the crew of a Buk battery in the Russian air defense forces is? I am asking because I suspect it is a long one. Therefore since the "separatists" only got going in April or so when Putin got home from the Olympics I figure it is highly likely that the "separatists" Buk battery that destroyed this airplane was manned wholly or mostly by regular Russian air defense troops. Maybe the guys who swept out the vehicles were "separatists" but everybody else was regular Russian armed forces.

carl---the BUK is defined as an operational theater wide AD system emphasis on system equal to say the Patriot ---both can shot down aircraft, inbound cruise missiles and guided rockets much as the Iron Dome does in Israel. The Russians claim it can even shot down laser guided munitions.

It is a complicated system as is the Iron Dome or Patriots.

The onboard tactical radar allows it to shoot and scoot in the defense of units on the move---the accuracy tends to fall off therefore the four missiles system before reloading.

But you are right no one from the street walks in and fires the missile without understanding radar operations. The radar operator finds the target passes the data to the missile and then launches---it is a fire and forget type of missile system as it was designed to engage a high number of targets via fire and forget especially due to the speed of the missile once launched. And it is a solid system rivaling the Patriot--some say even better.

The SAM 6 which it replaced was bad enough for US AF pilots due to a really excellent radar guidance system that was extremely hard to defeat if at all---this one is even worse to fly against.

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 08:57 AM

It looks like the Russian mercenaries are in fact moving the SAM 11 launcher around on a semi trailer low boy with a white tractor---the same white color of the low boys being used to move the T64s into the Ukraine from Russia that kaur has found previously.

Here is a short video showing potentially the SAM 11 that brought down the airliner--notice one of the missiles is missing from the launcher.

There were reports with a video posted by Voices of the Ukraine yesterday of a tractor trailer was trying to make it to the Russian border shortly after the sh.. hit the fan and it became known that a civilian airliner was shot down.

Notice the relative good speed of the tractor trailer. The use of a tractor trailer for movement is interesting as it allows for a rapid redeployment instead of running on tracks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4HJmev5xg0

I have gone over the video a number of times--there was a claim that one missile was missing---but in fact it looks like two are missing.

Begs the question was two fired at the airliner to ensure a kill or was one fired previously that brought down the AN 26 from over 6,000/7,000m---which means this puppy has been around the area for awhile and not the one captured on the 29th of Jun. Ukrainians had assumed it was a Mig 29 firing out of Russia--but what if it had been fired from inside via the BUK?

Two might though have been fired at the airliner due to the apparent breakup of the entire aircraft in mid air into large pieces but then again decompressions forces and serious structural damage from the explosion could have caused the break up just as well via a single missile.

kaur

07-19-2014, 10:44 AM

carl asked

Does anybody know how long the training course is for the crew of a Buk battery in the Russian air defense forces is? I am asking because I suspect it is a long one.

Carl, in the Soviet Union thousands and thousands conscripts, I would even say tens of thousands, if you consider the area that must be protected and how long those missile systems have been in use, were trained to operate BUK and other SAM complexes. After hearing comment from one of those former conscripts, he said that after week of refreshment, he could do the same, that happened in Ukraine. According to last SBU interception manned BUK arrived from Russian side.

Comment from Finnish military journal. There are BUK systems in Finnish armed forces (they got BUK in the middle of 1990. and now replacing them with NASAMS), so they know what is possible and what is not.

It is possible that the MH17, approaching high from west, was misidentified as Ukrainian military transport aircraft. Even more likely so, if the pro-Russian troops were operating under the impression that the airspace over eastern Ukraine had been declared as a no-fly zone for the international overflight traffic (it was not). It is also possible, even probable, that missile was launched quickly, using just a single Buk-M1 launcher and radar vehicle (TELAR) in autonomous mode – so without the assistance of command and 3-D target acquisition radar vehicles and functions of a complete Buk-M1 –system. In this case it has a severely limited capabilty to track AND identify targets,

If and when the launcher was operating in haste, without any assistance from normal SAM-battery or –battalion level functions, even the exact flight level and velocity of the target may have been missed or ignored – even more likely so, if the rogue TELAR vehicle was manned by just a single trained Buk-operator. And yes, contrary to what has been now claimed, a single TELAR vehicle in autonomous mode can be operated, if necessary, by a one well-trained operator, assisted by few quickly trained ersatz-operators. And there isn’t exactly a shortage of trained Buk-operators, whether reservists, active or ex-soldiers, in Ukraine or Russia – or in many third party countries, including Finland.

And after the 3,5 mach semi-active homing 9M38 missile has been successfully launched to the proper interception vector, it has a very near 100 % hit (and kill) probability against any civilian passenger aircraft, following a straight path in static cruising speed and altitude – unless somebody shuts down or blocks the fire control radar from the TELAR vehicle.

http://www.suomensotilas.fi/en/responsibility-and-irresponsibility

Biggus

07-19-2014, 12:05 PM

Biggus,

In the rush to prove that the insurgents destroyed the aircraft, Kiev also threw away its strongest propaganda coup in recent months. The transcripts released clearly indicate that the insurgents thought they were targeting a military aircraft and accidentally destroyed a civilian one. Although unjustified, errant rounds do happen in combat (some might argue routinely - the US is not immune from this problem, either). This is unlike when the USSR downed the Korean Air flight in the 1980s, the lack of information originating from the Soviets enabled Reagan to make a strong political condemnation and seize the moral narrative. Though the West can express its moral outrage, by ceding this issue, Kiev has given the insurgents the political space to request a cease-fire, de-escalate (or regroup), and to build good-will through cooperation on investigating the incident.

This will depend on the separatists having a sufficiently disciplined command structure. It only takes one stubborn squad leader to make recovery of the bodies that much harder. I don't think anyone really believes that those responsible aren't currently destroying evidence, but preventing repatriation of the dead would remove any legitimacy that the rebels could ever hope to have in the West.

carl---the BUK is defined as an operational theater wide AD system emphasis on system equal to say the Patriot ---both can shot down aircraft, inbound cruise missiles and guided rockets much as the Iron Dome does in Israel. The Russians claim it can even shot down laser guided munitions.

It is a complicated system as is the Iron Dome or Patriots.

The onboard tactical radar allows it to shoot and scoot in the defense of units on the move---the accuracy tends to fall off therefore the four missiles system before reloading.

But you are right no one from the street walks in and fires the missile without understanding radar operations. The radar operator finds the target passes the data to the missile and then launches---it is a fire and forget type of missile system as it was designed to engage a high number of targets via fire and forget especially due to the speed of the missile once launched. And it is a solid system rivaling the Patriot--some say even better.

The SAM 6 which it replaced was bad enough for US AF pilots due to a really excellent radar guidance system that was extremely hard to defeat if at all---this one is even worse to fly against.

It is a very complicated system for sure. It's complicated because it is so highly automated. My understanding is that two operators in the TELAR perform a four step procedure each, and then the missile is away.

The Buk system is comparable to the Patriot, but a single independent TELAR is not a particularly dangerous threat. Narrow beam radar doesn't offer much situational awareness. It makes me wonder whether the operator knew that he'd pick up contacts where the radar beam was pointing, of whether he randomly scanned a patch of sky.

Quick edit:
I understand that individual radar sets have their own unique emissions signatures, ie it is possible to differentiate between two more-or-less identical TELARs through SIGINT/ELINT. Something to think about.

SWJ Blog

07-19-2014, 12:40 PM

RT “Covers” the Shooting Down of MH17 (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/rt-%E2%80%9Ccovers%E2%80%9D-the-shooting-down-of-mh17)

Entry Excerpt:

--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/rt-%E2%80%9Ccovers%E2%80%9D-the-shooting-down-of-mh17) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

Firn

07-19-2014, 12:42 PM

The Buk system is comparable to the Patriot, but a single independent TELAR is not a particularly dangerous threat. Narrow beam radar doesn't offer much situational awareness. It makes me wonder whether the operator knew that he'd pick up contacts where the radar beam was pointing, of whether he randomly scanned a patch of sky.

Quick edit:
I understand that individual radar sets have their own unique emissions signatures, ie it is possible to differentiate between two more-or-less identical TELARs through SIGINT/ELINT. Something to think about.

I was thinking about that too and I wondered before how the targets were acquired and so far none of the civilian planes shot down. 'Outsider' help doesn't of course have to be limited to the weapons itself.

Biggus

07-19-2014, 02:02 PM

I was thinking about that too and I wondered before how the targets were acquired and so far none of the civilian planes shot down. 'Outsider' help doesn't of course have to be limited to the weapons itself.

'Outsider' help is definitely one big question.

The report I linked to previously noted that an entire Buk complex had been captured. I'm not sure of the range limitations in the datalink between a TELAR and the surveillance radar. It might be a considerably long range, given that it's a theatre-wide system. So, where is the rest of the system?

I do not see a way for Russia to escape responsibility in this event. Russia knew that the rebels possessed at least a TELAR, apparently provided technical expertise to enable operation of the TELAR, and provided woefully inadequate warning to civil air traffic. Closure of route segments below 26kft over Eastern Ukraine had been in effect for months, then fourteen hours before the event issued a new NOTAM closing those route segments up to 32kft, when they knew that they had supplied, trained and assisted rebels in the use of a weapon with a 49kft ceiling. The timing of the new NOTAM certainly suggests that there was knowledge that something was going to happen soon in Eastern Ukraine.

mirhond

07-19-2014, 02:05 PM

Anyone have any ideas why the Russian separatists are stealing the dead passenger bodies?

From Daily Beast:

Pro-Russian Separatists Reportedly Steal 36 Bodies from Malaysian Airliner Crash

21:20 (GMT)

Separatist fighters from the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" (DPR) have reportedly stolen 36 bodies of people killed in the downing of the Malaysian airliner, rbc.ua reported.

The press service of the Donetsk Region State Administration made the announcement, citing eye-witnesses.

We have no verification of the report, but the fact that the statement was made by a local state administrator adds a certain credibility to it.

Firstly, why I have to do your job and provide a link
http://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/accidents/boeviki-dnr-vykrali-36-tel-pogibshih-pri-krushenii-malaziyskogo-18072014222500

I believe that's because you don't know Russian, so you are unable to find the source by yourself.
Secondly, do you realise that dead bodies rot, especially under summer sun?
Thirdly, do you understand that separatists cant "stole" anything from territory under their control? They can "take" the rotting bodies which happened to be intact and bring it to the morgue in Donetzk. They are zealous Christians, at least, so I suppose they are driven by moral duty to take care of the bodies.

Biggus

07-19-2014, 02:09 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 03:11 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 03:13 PM

Weather.

Biggus--that is too simple for mirhond as he was proving another point which it was the fault of the aircraft driver not the proRussian irregulars on the ground.

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 03:25 PM

Firstly, why I have to do your job and provide a link
http://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/accidents/boeviki-dnr-vykrali-36-tel-pogibshih-pri-krushenii-malaziyskogo-18072014222500

I believe that's because you don't know Russian, so you are unable to find the source by yourself.
Secondly, do you realise that dead bodies rot, especially under summer sun?
Thirdly, do you understand that separatists cant "stole" anything from territory under their control? They can "take" the rotting bodies which happened to be intact and bring it to the morgue in Donetzk. They are zealous Christians, at least, so I suppose they are driven by moral duty to take care of the bodies.

come on comrade not sure Russian expert mirhond

1. the common language used here is actually English which you you seem to use in three different forms depending on who is using you login
2. you did not seem to read but I forgot you cannot read English--the bodies before being thrown like sacks of potatoes were searched and stripped of cell phones---you do know as a Russian just how expensive iPhones/Smart phones are going for in Russia right mirhond?

Wow---mirhond you are so correct they are in fact zealous as zealous as ultra nationalists or actually fascists or as Russian TV was recently using Nazi's can be correct mirhond as you yourself up to about three weeks ago were using the exact same words junta, Nazi's Right Sector thugs.

By the way was it not these same "zealous" Christians that have been torturing and killing other what "non zealous" Christians who do not want to be ruled by Putin?

So let me get this straight these bodies were not the bodies that the "zealous" irregular no actually mercenaries where claiming yesterday were just dead people put in the plane to make it look like a large scale disaster---or do you want the link to that mercenary tweet and pictures?

If you are going to get your stories correct at least review the tweets and Facebook entries your "zealous" mercenaries put on the web.

By the way comrade mirhond---do you know what the difference is between a Islamic jihadi and a proRussian mercenary?

A jihadi knows to keep off his cell---seems your guys cannot stop talking---remember---no you cannot remember as it was before your birth--old Russian saying---the walls have ears or better even the electrical outlets have ears--remember those old sayings mirhond.

It seems they like to hear their on voices in the global web or better yet they are just lonely because they are slowly being surrounded and the grand master Putin will be cutting them off from resupplies in the backlash of their stupidity.

come on mirhond accept it---you all just shot down the wrong plane and we all know that accepting responsibility is the fist step in the grieving process for the executed 298 right mirhond?.

OUTLAW 09

07-19-2014, 03:44 PM

I was thinking about that too and I wondered before how the targets were acquired and so far none of the civilian planes shot down. 'Outsider' help doesn't of course have to be limited to the weapons itself.

Anyone who has worked with the Patriot systems in the last few years as well as the Iron Dome knows the capability of US radar systems as well as the overhead and early warning aircraft that have been up.

First they would have "seen" the launch blast, then they would have tracked the flight all the while backtracking it to it's initial launch site, then categorized the missile type all in a matter of seconds.

Then betting the early warning aircraft that were up backtracked any ground vehicular movements and depending on sensors aboard could have identified the ground vehicle type and direction of movement.

Confirming all of this would haven been the overhead capability---so in my estimate the US is sitting on the information and waiting to see if Putin steps up and takes responsibility as the main supporter of the Russian mercenaries.

And on top of this we have the much aligned NSA capabilities that would tie in at a latter analysis stage.

That would have given Obama the ammunition to say what he was "alluding" to when he signaled Putin to come clean and do the right thing.

What in my opinion was missing was verifiable prove of the BUK in the hands of the mercenaries---that came in last night via social media and a geolocation fix. Because of the ISR "stuff" does not give one eyes on the target with a photo or video.

If Putin does not get untracked and allow the recovery process and crash analysis to continue in a more standardized western fashion I really do believe Obama is sitting Putin up to tell the entire world the true story--IMO he is trying to give Putin a way forward because if you notice when Putin is pushed even if he is wrong he tends to lash out.

My personal concern is that he did lash out three times now---first the BM 21 attack from inside Russian territory which in itself is a act of war, the long range Mig29 shot down again from Russian soil and now the airliner.

I personally do not think he is in full control as I had said from the beginning Russian decision making is balanced around four groups, 1) the military, 2) the security services, the oligarchs and Russian gangs covered over by the Russian Orthodox Church.

But we need to ask mirhond who is the Russian expert or at least he thinks he is.

WGEwald

07-19-2014, 06:57 PM

Dutch banks said Saturday they were taking "preventative measures" after reports of credit cards being looted from the Ukrainian crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, where 192 Dutch citizens died.

"International media report that victims' bank cards have been stolen," the Dutch Banking Association said in a statement

"Banks are taking preventative measures as necessary," it said, adding that any losses suffered by relatives of the dead would be paid back.

http://news.yahoo.com/dutch-banks-act-mh17-credit-card-looting-reports-155839417.html

Rebels are good Christians, did somebody say?

mirhond

07-19-2014, 07:16 PM

Weather.

Why it wasn't driven South, as it does after 17.07?

I gave you the source, the time and the article i
Actually I give you a source in Russian, if you understand what term "source" means.

So let me get this straight these bodies were not the bodies that the "zealous" irregular no actually mercenaries where claiming yesterday were just dead people put in the plane to make it look like a large scale disaster---or do you want the link to that mercenary tweet and pictures?

Wow, two lines of unrestricted stream of consciousness, without any punctuation marks - it overwhelms my inferior English, but I do want the links you mentioned, I believe it will help me to get what you mean. Everything else in your post is irrelevant to the subject.

http://news.yahoo.com/dutch-banks-act-mh17-credit-card-looting-reports-155839417.html

Rebels are good Christians, did somebody say?

I said this. What I've said doesn't contradict to facts - looters may be good Christians, they loot corpses and then bury them according to the ritual.

WGEwald

07-19-2014, 08:19 PM

I have been following this thread from the beginning and must admit to have enjoyed the cut and thrust as it has developed over the months ...

What you call "cut and thrust" is due to some defending the indefensible, such as excusing lifting credit cards off of dead bodies.

mirhond

07-19-2014, 08:58 PM

What you call "cut and thrust" is due to some defending the indefensible, such as excusing lifting credit cards off of dead bodies.

O, sancta simplicitas!
You forgot to note that I used the definition "zealous Christians", you added "Good" to the "Christians"
Anyway you can't prove that looters aren't Christians, and therefore can't be moved by religious motives when they took the bodies from the crash site. And even if they are all die-hard atheists, they nevertheless might be motivated by common practice to keep dead in morgues and give them a decent burial.
Don't forget another point - these guys kill and got killed at daily basis, dead passengers are just like other corpses to them, no privileges for civilians, something like that, may be.
Besides, if all that bull#### about hordes of FSB agents/cossacks roaming around is right, it only reinforce my assumption about religious motives - cossacks are MAD about their Orthodoxy, they can't leave dead to rot.
ps. I believe the ideas of secular and utilitarian ethics aren't new to you. ;)
pps. and please, don't mix up "excusing", "explaining" and "explaining away"
ppps. If all this explanations are nonsence to you and you just want to get high moral ground - well, enjoy it.

AmericanPride

07-20-2014, 04:39 AM

The more likely scenario is that given the lack of governance due to the conflict, the insurgent 'state' had no plans or institutions in place to manage an incident like that of a downed airliner and therefore no immediate security was provided to protect the scene of the crash from looters - an opportunism that exists in all cultures. From an objective point of view stripped of moralism, the incident, while saddening, does not appear on the face of it to be materially relevant to the outcome of the conflict since at the end of the day the insurgents still occupy the eastern provinces of the country and remain heavily armed. Oh - and the Ukrainian offensive is still active, so I do not see why the insurgents will decide to de-escalate in the face of escalation.

Will the West score some political points against the insurgents and against Moscow in the hopes of pressuring Russia to cease its material aid of the insurgency? Sure. But the political fallout of downed airliners in the Persian Gulf and Sinai did not change the course of those conflicts. It also shouldn't be forgotten that Russian media is in full gear blaming this incident on Ukraine, so I do not see how Putin's domestic incentives to cease support changes whatsoever.

Biggus

07-20-2014, 07:02 AM

Why it wasn't driven South, as it does after 17.07?

Again, most likely weather.

Does it matter? It was an open airway. Both Russia and Ukraine had the power to close it down, and yet open it remained. One of those countries was providing assistance to a rebel group in establishing an extremely capable air defence system.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 07:20 AM

Why it wasn't driven South, as it does after 17.07?

Actually I give you a source in Russian, if you understand what term "source" means.

Wow, two lines of unrestricted stream of consciousness, without any punctuation marks - it overwhelms my inferior English, but I do want the links you mentioned, I believe it will help me to get what you mean. Everything else in your post is irrelevant to the subject.

I said this. What I've said doesn't contradict to facts - looters may be good Christians, they loot corpses and then bury them according to the ritual.

wow---now we have a fourth person logging in under the mirhond--welcome comrade to a really poor defense of a slaughter that the previous mirhond was defending.

come on not a Russian expert and FSB member of the misinformation campaign mirhond

come on man you really are not trying to defend the "zealous criminals" who have been reported by your own ethnic Russians as being seen drunk, pillaging, looting and ignoring the recovery in an honorable fashion the bodies of 298 slaughtered civilians.

I use the term slaughtered because that is what the Russian "paid" mercenaries really did when they fired a military missile into a civilian aircraft, claimed then the shot down--- and then said what you guys posted was "someone else not us".

AND you really call them "Christians"---by the way you explicitly defended the recovery of the reported 38 bodies did you not?

BY the way they are not anywhere to be found in Donetsk where you "claimed" they were going to--SO comrade mirhond just where did those nice honest and zealous Christians take the bodies of 38 slaughtered civilians.

comrade mirhond---what is again that burial ritual you seem to think your drunken mercenaries are using----there have been no recovered remains turned over to the international team THAT somehow is being held back from the crash site by those same very drunken Russian paid mercenaries.

SO comrade mirhond---just what are those drunken mercenaries trying to hide my friend?

comrade mirhond you still have not answered just hwere are those flight recorders that your drunken mercenaries claimed to have recovered, claimed to have sent to Russia and THEN claimed they cannot find them.

comrade mirhond just what are those drunken mercenaries trying to hide---that they were the ones who shot down the airliner in a drunken mistake?

by the way the "other" mirhond used a jihadi term---now I will use another popular Iraqi term---you comrade mirhond have blood on your hands even as a "good" Christian.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 07:29 AM

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 07:36 AM

open challenge to mirhond----

if my comrade friend you think that in fact the Ukrainians downed the aircraft---then ask nicely Putin if he will release all the recordings and data collected by a good Russian theater wide AD system on the day before the downing, and the day of the downing of the airliner---just as they have demanded from the Ukrainians yesterday. Especially since the Russian missile defense conducted a series of exercises recently that Putin attended did he not?

if there is no data on the Russian side then in fact they have a really really poor self defense AD system and all these arguments over the missile defense system pointed against them in Europe then have been what "fakes".

you can search Interfax from yesterday and find the Russian Defense Ministers statement if you want to rad the accurate statement to his demand.

NOW if in fact the Russian supplied to the world data does not reflect Russian involvement in the shot down then Putin is right in his statements.

but guess what comrade mirhond actually neither you nor Putin will ever release that data because it in fact proves Russian mercenary involvement.

so mirhond comrade friend just provide the data and it will end the debate you think you are having here.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 07:41 AM

O, sancta simplicitas!
You forgot to note that I used the definition "zealous Christians", you added "Good" to the "Christians"
Anyway you can't prove that looters aren't Christians, and therefore can't be moved by religious motives when they took the bodies from the crash site. And even if they are all die-hard atheists, they nevertheless might be motivated by common practice to keep dead in morgues and give them a decent burial.
Don't forget another point - these guys kill and got killed at daily basis, dead passengers are just like other corpses to them, no privileges for civilians, something like that, may be.
Besides, if all that bull#### about hordes of FSB agents/cossacks roaming around is right, it only reinforce my assumption about religious motives - cossacks are MAD about their Orthodoxy, they can't leave dead to rot.
ps. I believe the ideas of secular and utilitarian ethics aren't new to you. ;)
pps. and please, don't mix up "excusing", "explaining" and "explaining away"
ppps. If all this explanations are nonsence to you and you just want to get high moral ground - well, enjoy it.

my comrade non Russian expert mirhond---you were the one using the term "zealous Christians" to describe a bunch of drunken mercenaries.

now you my friend are pulling a zealous mercenary move by denying you ever used it just as they claimed the shot down and then claimed "it was not me".

so mirhond the drunken Cossacks still have moved the 38 bodies to Donetsk as they claimed here they would be doing---so where are the 38 bodies your Cossack friends "stole".

answer that and you have proven that you yourself are a "good" Christian .

you all have to get your stories right and stick to them.

mirhond

07-20-2014, 08:50 AM

Again, most likely weather.

Does it matter? It was an open airway. Both Russia and Ukraine had the power to close it down, and yet open it remained. One of those countries was providing assistance to a rebel group in establishing an extremely capable air defence system.

If Ukraine didn't close airspace over combat zone, for what unbelievable reasons Russia must do the same? But I get your point, it's quite reasonable.

BY the way they are not anywhere to be found in Donetsk where you "claimed" they were going to

if my comrade friend you think that in fact the Ukrainians downed the aircraft---then ask nicely Putin if he will release all the recordings and data collected by a good Russian theater wide AD system on the day before the downing, and the day of the downing of the airliner

1. Links or **** (deleted by Moderator)
2. If you really new Russian you'd find what you request in no time, but as far as you just a liar - use Google translate, then.
http://itar-tass.com/proisshestviya/1327288
Besides, why do you bother? You can trust nothing from Russian media.

ps. you overuse term "drunken" - it's a bad sign :D

kaur

07-20-2014, 09:31 AM

Just little reminder in case bigger picture will get blurred by smaller details.

1. In February Russia accomplised coup d'etat, occupied and later annexed Crimea.

2. In March Russia started the same process in Eastern Ukraine.

3. Head of DPR forces is FSB colonel Girkin.

4. Premier is from Russia, PR specialist Borodai.

5. Borodai's deputy is from Russia.

6. Cossacks who kidnapped OSCE observers are from Russia.

7. Separatists' ATGM-s are from Russia.

8. Separatists' MANPAD' are from Russia.

9. Separatists got MRL-s from Russia.

10. Separatists got tanks from Russia.

11. Separatists get volunteers from Russia.

12. Separatists get pemanent PR protection in international arena from Russia.

13. Separatists got BUK from Russia.

Before there is any further discussion of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, it’s important that one point be made absolutely clear: This plane crash is a result of the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine, an operation deliberately designed to create legal, political and military chaos. Without this chaos, a surface-to-air missile would not have been fired at a passenger plane.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-the-end-of-the-russian-fairy-tale/2014/07/18/3e42715a-0eab-11e4-b8e5-d0de80767fc2_story.html

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 12:36 PM

If Ukraine didn't close airspace over combat zone, for what unbelievable reasons Russia must do the same? But I get your point, it's quite reasonable.

1. Links or **** (deleted by Moderator)
2. If you really new Russian you'd find what you request in no time, but as far as you just a liar - use Google translate, then.
http://itar-tass.com/proisshestviya/1327288
Besides, why do you bother? You can trust nothing from Russian media.

ps. you overuse term "drunken" - it's a bad sign :D

comrade not such a good Russian expert and FSB agent mirhond

glad you liked the over use of the term "drunken" in reference to the reported from Ukrainian villagers next to the crash site "drunken" mercenary looters. it was for emphasis which I am happy you caught.

by the way mirhond---noticed you did not deny the report that they were "over zealous drunken Christians"----wait maybe they were the Ukrainian Army troops looting after they "downed" the aircraft but wait was it not your own Russian mercenary leader of the DNR that "claimed" you all shot down the aircraft or was his boast just hot air as is yours mirhond?

by anyway happy to see you agreed with the drunken mercenary report.

at least you are trying to disengage your from "drunken over zealous Christian Cossacks"--it at least shows you can learn from SWJ---nice to see that.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 12:44 PM

comrade mirhond---not even using the term Russian expert as you have disqualified yourself from the title by your constant mistakes in materials you provide.

by the way I noticed you did not deny the ongoing looting---and if your words are so correct I guess the 36 stolen bodies that were looted of their credit cards and Smart phones by "over zealous Russian Cossacks" that you yourself "claimed" they were taking to Donetsk did not make Donetsk since your own Russian news service RIA reported 196 bodies being sent to Donetsk---so since you have been so wrong over the last weeks---maybe you can finally admit your side is in fact losing this Russian war.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140720/191049670/Train-with-198-Bodies-of-Boeing-Crash-Victims-Leaves-for-Donetsk.html

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 01:00 PM

comrade not so Russian expert mirhond---some Sunday suggested reading for you and I will let you search for the materials as they are easy to Google.

1. it seems you did not take me up on the abilities of Putin and the Russian government to release air defense data from the day before and the day of the downing of the civilian aircraft which your DNR commander even "claimed he had shot down" AND we both know Russia will refuse it why--because they supplied the missiles and the firing crew.

2. yes you in fact know the Russians have the data unless if their haste to destroy evidence of their being involved in the shot down by providing the weapons via a "civil society"

NOW for your homework----

1. Google the term ISR
2. then Google the term GMTI
3. Google US early warning radar abilities and early airborne sensors ---then Google AWACs capacities

For a little assistance in your reading and so you can understand the English---do not for a single minute in your read ever doubt and for a single second any and all ground vehicles can be easily identified and tracked for hundred or miles from sysems hundreds of miles away.

Ask the Iraqi and AFG jihadi's just how good that racking capacity is these days so yes even a Buk is easy to define and track especially on the back of a white tractor trailer.

AND comrade mirhoind---just for a moment really really believe the world of tracking vehicles has gotten so much more effective and efficient in ways the Russians have yet to think about---helps when one is at war for 11 years to perfect that ability so we must also thank the johadi's for their assistance as well.

Airborne Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI) radar
has become an important asset for tactical surveillance of
mobile ground targets. Tactical intelligence needs
increasingly include requirements for detection and
tracking of mobile ground targets. US and coalition forces
now have available an increasing family of airborne GMTI
radar collectors.

And since you can Google with ease then really go back over the last 10 years of Iraq and AFG and read the articles written on the US capacity for GMTI.

NOW Google the capacity of the Patriots and the Iron Dome focusing on their radars signature recognition abilities and then look at the overhead abilities of the newer satellites to detect missile launches and conduct GMTI on the fly.

AFTER reading all of the above ASK yourself the following questions---do I mirhond believe that the US in fact has the pinpoint location of the missile launch---do I mirhond believe that in fact via GMTI the US identified and tracked the launch vehicle and do I mirhond believe that the US knew exactly when those vehicles crossed the border into Russian.

AND more importantly do I mirhond believe that it is possible the NSA has been recording every cell conversation since the Crimea.

so comrade mirhond just keep hanging onto that story that the "mean junta Ukrainians" shot down the aircraft.

you really do have to get a better story going---it is not being believed by the entire world.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 01:26 PM

comrade mirhond---once you have finished your Sunday reading assignment now go this link and half way down you will see the photos of the "none existent" Russian mercenary Buks which in fact were geo located by normal bloggers. that were released by your own "drunken over zealous Christians" on their tweeter accounts and their Russian Facebook accounts---social media is hard to control you do realize right mirhind?

now that you fully understand GMTI---is it not interesting that both the Ukrainian military and the US government have those vehiclse date time stamped crossing into Russia---but wait the Russian border security was "enhanced" under Putin right mirhond? must have been that "civil society thing" controlling the border pass through not the renowned Russian Federal Border Security Services which works for the FSB right mirhond?

The date time stamps of the GMTI is of a variance of 2 minutes from both governments.

GMTI will get you every time especially if you under estimate the capacities of airborne and overhead ISR assets which evidently Russia does not have because they have no AD data to release right mirhond?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/19/live-updates-on-the-battle-over-mh17-july-19.html

Biggus

07-20-2014, 02:30 PM

If Ukraine didn't close airspace over combat zone, for what unbelievable reasons Russia must do the same? But I get your point, it's quite reasonable.

I think that they both should have closed every segment of every airway over eastern Ukraine and part of western Russia on June 29. But, as I said:

One of those countries was providing assistance to a rebel group in establishing an extremely capable air defence system.
I would argue that greater moral culpability lies with those that were making an effort to give a group of disorganised thugs a strategic air defence capability, knowing that every day several dozen flights full of civilians traverse the airspace in question.

I note that nothing is being said as to the reason why Rostov issued NOTAM URRV V6158/14. (Relevant parts bolded.)

V6158/14 NOTAMN
Q) URRV/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/530/4818N04023E095
A) URRV
B) 1407170000
C) 1408312359 EST
E) DUE TO COMBAT ACTIONS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE UKRAINE NEAR THE
STATE BORDER WITH THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE FACTS OF FIRING
FROM THE TERRITORY OF THE UKRAINE TOWARDS THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIAN
FEDERATION, TO ENSURE INTL FLT SAFETY,
ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD AS FLW:
A100 MIMRA - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/DME (RND) ,
B145 KANON - ASMIL,
G247 MIMRA - BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA),
A87 TAMAK - SARNA,
A102 PENEG - NALEM,
A225 GUKOL - ODETA,
A712 TAMAK - SAMBEK NDB (SB),
B493 FASAD - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/DME (RND),
B947 TAMAK - ROSTOV-NA-DONU VOR/DME (RND),
G118 LATRI - BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA),
G534 MIMRA - TOROS,
G904 FASAD - SUTAG,
R114 BAGAYEVSKIY NDB (BA)-NALEM.
SFC - FL320.
DEP FM/ARR TO ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD TO/FM MOSCOW FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG
ATS RTE G128 KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA) - MOROZOVSK VOR/DME (MOR) AND
R11 MOROZOVSK VOR/DME (MOR) - BUTRI ON ASSIGNED FL.
DEP FM ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD TO DNEPROPETROVSK FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG
ATS RTE A102 KONSTANTINOVSK NDB (KA) - NALEM ON FL340 AND ABOVE.
ARR TO ROSTOV-NA-DONU AD FM DNEPROPETROVSK FIR CARRIED OUT ALONG
ATS RTE A712 TAMAK - SAMBEK NDB (SB) THEN DCT KONSTANTINOVSK NDB
(KA) ON FL330 AND ABOVE.
F) SFC
G) FL530

This revised NOTAM might have a perfectly innocent explanation, but it's highly suspect in my view. Either a half-hearted attempt at deflecting attention from the presence of a Buk that had most likely shot down a Frogfoot at well under 26kft (as per the previously standing NOTAM), an attempt to clear some airspace for impending combat operations, or something else specifically combat-related happening in the area. Alternatively, someone on the Russian side has completed some sort of risk assessment with rough knowledge of where the Buk launch site(s) would be and calculated the maximum altitude a missile would reach if fired from that location into Russian airspace, ensuring that anything shot down would fall in a flaming heap onto Ukrainian territory. I am not yet ready to ascribe to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity, but it's something that has crossed my mind since plugging some of those air route segments into some flight planning software.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 02:42 PM

I think that they both should have closed every segment of every airway over eastern Ukraine and part of western Russia on June 29. But, as I said:

I would argue that greater moral culpability lies with those that were making an effort to give a group of disorganised thugs a strategic air defence capability, knowing that every day several dozen flights full of civilians traverse the airspace in question.

I note that nothing is being said as to the reason why Rostov issued NOTAM URRV V6158/14. (Relevant parts bolded.)

This revised NOTAM might have a perfectly innocent explanation, but it's highly suspect in my view. Either a half-hearted attempt at deflecting attention from the presence of a Buk that had most likely shot down a Frogfoot at well under 26kft (as per the previously standing NOTAM), an attempt to clear some airspace for impending combat operations, or something else specifically combat-related happening in the area. Alternatively, someone on the Russian side has completed some sort of risk assessment with rough knowledge of where the Buk launch site(s) would be and calculated the maximum altitude a missile would reach if fired from that location into Russian airspace, ensuring that anything shot down would fall in a flaming heap onto Ukrainian territory. I am not yet ready to ascribe to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity, but it's something that has crossed my mind since plugging some of those air route segments into some flight planning software.

biggus---if you listen to the first SBU released voice interception the two terrorists talking one at the crash site and one in the rear the crash site terrorist was completely taken back that civilian aircraft were flying over the Ukraine.

There is a couple of comments out there that indicated the Rostov ATC was going to close down the air space for unnamed reasons on the 17th which did not happen for some reason.

Is it just possible that the terrorists knew of the alleged Russian air space closures in advance as they were aiming strictly for military aircraft and the closure would have made it easier for the missile gunner to just shot at anything that flew above him.

Based on the Russian spoken he was truly surprised by the overflight of a civilian aircraft and it appears he assumed all aircraft to be military in nature.

Then if you look at the condolence speech Putin held at one of his government meetings and published by RIA and referenced also by Interfax---Putin described the plane not as crashing from yet to be determined reasons---he refers to the aircraft as "being killed" which in the Russian military speak means the aircraft was struck by a missile and destroyed---this statement was well in advance then of anything coming out of Russia saying the Ukrainians fired a missile.

Putin had attended a series of recent missile AD exercises so he fully understood the term "aircraft was killed" just as any American being in a Patriot TOC would understand the term Putin used.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 03:00 PM

comrade mirhond--you have often here tried to tell us Russia is not involved inside eastern Ukraine---now explain in these SBU released voice intercepts just why Moscow is telling someone in the DNR they need to get there hands on the black boxes and to collect all evidence and keep it away from "other parties".

mirhond my comrade does that sound like the Putin comment that the international community must make a thorough investigation of the air crash when his Russian mercenaries under his control are trying to eliminate critical evidence and control who gets the black boxes which they first claimed they had, then did not have and now have---come on mirhond you are beating a dead horse my friend.

or better yet who called from Moscow mirhond"

come on mirhond finally admit it ---you guys slaughtered 298 people among them 80 children because you simply downed the wrong plane then you looted their bodies for cash, credit cards and Smart phone---does that sound like the work of "good Christians" my friend?.

really would like the NSA to finally release their copies of these voice intercepts.

the US has been accepting the SBU intercepts as valid and authentic

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ssu-356979.html

Militant groups of self-proclaimed Donbas People's Republic might already be in possession of at least two Malaysia Airlines Boeing's flight recorders and are keen to get ahold of all the evidence from its crash site, citing "interest" from Moscow. The conversation shows that the separatists are intent on obstructing an international investigation under way.

The alleged intercepted phone conversations are between Oleksandr Khodakovskyi, commander of the Kremlin-backed separatists' Vostok Battalion and two militants identified only by their first names. The conversations show that the militants working at the site of deadly air crash of Malaysia Airlines Fight MH17 are given a task of getting ahold of all the evidence they can locate and keeping it away from anyone else. The ill-fated flight from Amsterdam-Kuala Lumpur flight on July 17 crashed after a missile struck it from separatist-held territory, killing almost 300 civilians

At one point during the conversation, Khodakovskiy points out that two "black boxes" have already been obtained by a militant nicknamed Khmuryi, identified in the conversation as the head of intelligence of Igor Girkin (Strelkov), DNR's military commander.

The preliminary results of investigations conducted by both U.S. and Ukrainian authorities show that the Malaysia Airlines Boeing was shot by a surface to air missile fired from the territory controlled by Russian-backed sepaparatists.

The primary focus is on "black boxes," Khodakovskyi instructs a militant named Andriy during the alleged phone conversation, but the rest of the evidence is no less important.

"All that you find must not come into someone else's hands," he said.

mirhond

07-20-2014, 03:25 PM

I think that they both should have closed every segment of every airway over eastern Ukraine and part of western Russia on June 29. But, as I said:

I would argue that greater moral culpability lies with those that were making an effort to give a group of disorganised thugs a strategic air defence capability, knowing that every day several dozen flights full of civilians traverse the airspace in question.

This revised NOTAM might have a perfectly innocent explanation, but it's highly suspect in my view. Either a half-hearted attempt at deflecting attention from the presence of a Buk that had most likely shot down a Frogfoot at well under 26kft (as per the previously standing NOTAM), an attempt to clear some airspace for impending combat operations, or something else specifically combat-related happening in the area. Alternatively, someone on the Russian side has completed some sort of risk assessment with rough knowledge of where the Buk launch site(s) would be and calculated the maximum altitude a missile would reach if fired from that location into Russian airspace, ensuring that anything shot down would fall in a flaming heap onto Ukrainian territory. I am not yet ready to ascribe to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity, but it's something that has crossed my mind since plugging some of those air route segments into some flight planning software.

1. Then tell me how the "group of disorganised thugs" which numbers is about several thousand of lightly armed militia managed to resist few dosens of thousands of regulars with bells and whistles for a months. You would argue that in "Ukraine" thead, if you please.

2. Sorry, NOTAMs is China to me, even with your explanation. You assume that Russia has a priopri knowledge that something nasty will happen in Ukrainian airspace, provided that separatists surely got the Buks?

Outlaw. now I completely understand why you are lost cause to reason and common sence

1. you have very short memory and you don't understand probabilistic statements

comrade mirhond--you have often here tried to tell us Russia is not involved inside eastern Ukraine

while I admit the presence of Russian volunteers in South-East

I don't read minds, but I give 80% probability that Putin will admit presence of Russian volunteers when the whole mess will be over, one way or other.

2. you are unfamiliar with causation and timing

they were taking to Donetsk did not make Donetsk since your own Russian news service RIA reported 196 bodies being sent to Donetsk

Before train arrives to Donetsk it has to depart and make its way.

3. You almost never provide relevant link

Biggus

07-20-2014, 03:49 PM

biggus---if you listen to the first SBU released voice interception the two terrorists talking one at the crash site and one in the rear the crash site terrorist was completely taken back that civilian aircraft were flying over the Ukraine.

There is a couple of comments out there that indicated the Rostov ATC was going to close down the air space for unnamed reasons on the 17th which did not happen for some reason.

Is it just possible that the terrorists knew of the alleged Russian air space closures in advance as they were aiming strictly for military aircraft and the closure would have made it easier for the missile gunner to just shot at anything that flew above him.

Based on the Russian spoken he was truly surprised by the overflight of a civilian aircraft and it appears he assumed all aircraft to be military in nature.
This is entirely possible. The only things that would stand out to me are that a) it's Ukrainian airspace, not Russian, and b) something like 200 civillian aircraft had flown over the Donetsk region in the month prior.

These points obviously don't preclude the scenario you've provided from playing out.

Biggus

07-20-2014, 03:59 PM

1. Then tell me how the "group of disorganised thugs" which numbers is about several thousand of lightly armed militia managed to resist few dosens of thousands or regulars with bells and whistles for a months. You would argue that in ""Ukraine" thead, if you please.
My interest is mostly in this particular event. If they're an organised group of thugs, then I retract my assertion as to their ability to maintain a cohesive command structure. But given the treatment the OSCE inspectors were subject to, I will stand by the choice of the word 'thug'.

2. Sorry, NOTAMs is China to me, even with your explanation. You assume that Russia has a priopri knowledge that something nasty will happen in Ukrainian airspace, provided that separatists surely got the Buks?
It's not an assumption, I'm merely raising the possibility. The prior NOTAM with altitude and route restrictions was issued in April, I believe. Then fourteen hours before MH17 was shot down, a new NOTAM with a new altitude restriction. Somewhat coincidental?

Another possibility is that Russian electronic warfare assets detected a radar emission from a rebel-held TELAR, did a similar calculation to the one I mentioned in regards to the maximum altitude a missile could attain from the edge of Russian airspace, and revised the NOTAM accordingly, without telling anyone else why they'd done it.

mirhond

07-20-2014, 04:11 PM

Another possibility is that Russian electronic warfare assets detected a radar emission from a rebel-held TELAR, did a similar calculation to the one I mentioned in regards to the maximum altitude a missile could attain from the edge of Russian airspace, and revised the NOTAM accordingly, without telling anyone else why they'd done it.

Got it. Or may be it was actual Ukrainian TELAR or entire Buk system, as Russian DoD claims?

Biggus

07-20-2014, 04:27 PM

Got it. Or may be it was actual Ukrainian TELAR or entire Buk system, as Russian DoD claims?

I have a hard time believing that you could suggest this with any seriousness. Given the enormity of the cyberwar waged by Russia (and I acknowledge that other countries have undertaken similar campaigns), where are the images of Ukrainian Buks with embedded geolocation tags? Where are the ill-timed tweets by Ukrainian military commanders?

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 05:23 PM

This is entirely possible. The only things that would stand out to me are that a) it's Ukrainian airspace, not Russian, and b) something like 200 civillian aircraft had flown over the Donetsk region in the month prior.

These points obviously don't preclude the scenario you've provided from playing out.

biggus---not one being up to date on air space management but does not the closing of the Rostov air space via their ATC in fact close that particular set of routes on the Ukrainian side that would cross into the Rostov air space causing at least reroutes?

Something caused the terrorist at the crash site to be astounded about civilian aircraft overhead.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 05:27 PM

Got it. Or may be it was actual Ukrainian TELAR or entire Buk system, as Russian DoD claims?

or comrade non Russian expert mirhond ---it was Martians like those "little green men" Putin "claimed" were not in the Crimea then later "remembered" of course they were there---remember you denied they were there as well comrade.

so again comrade mirhond you seemed to ignore the photos, videos, and voice intercepts that indicate clearly Russian mercenaries downed the aircraft---by the way the SBU has now confirmed the name of the junior officer who gave the command to fire and I believe he was in fact a Russian irregular--how about that mirhond.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 05:37 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 05:42 PM

so comrade uninformed expert mirhond---here is an undisputed---well at least it will be by you, the Russian mercenaries on the cell call, and Putin naturally.

NOW comrade mirhond---cover up or no cover up and who "is the higher up in Moscow" they are referring to my friend?

it appears the "higher up" in Msocow wants a cover up and hide the black boxes after the Russian Foreign Minister flatly stated they are to remain in the Ukraine did he not---oh forgot you do not read Interfax do you? AND Putin called for an international investigation did he not?

it is in Russian so there is no confusion for you and in English so you are practice your English---listen well my friend and weep ---again what is the difference between an Islamic jihadi and a Russian mercenary mirhond---the jihadi does not use his cell phone for business. but of course you know that already---maybe you can call Donetsk and at least inform them they are being monitored.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ssu-356979.html

AmericanPride

07-20-2014, 05:48 PM

Outlaw,

How do you see the incident, and your insistence of total Russian guilt in the matter, affecting the outcome of the conflict, if at all?

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 05:52 PM

comrade mirhond---is it not amazing that Putin still has not increased that "enhanced border security" he in the public domain ordered his troops, the FSB and the Border Security Forces to do.

seems they are not under his control after all---so is he lying my friend or does he just like talking to the news cameras?

seems like the Ukrainians, NATO and the US seem to know what is crossing but somehow Putin does not know---come on mirhond what kind of a leader is he?

Despite the situation with the Malaysian Airline BOEING 777-200 Russia continues to supply heavy arms and other weapons to terrorists on the territory of Ukraine. The spokesman of the NSDC Andriy Lisenko said this during his briefing on Sunday.

“In the last 24 hours 4 tanks, 3 infantry fighting vehicles, 3 systems “Grad”, 4 APCs and few vehicles “Ural” with ammunition crossed the Ukrainian border from the village Belenkoye in Krasnodon region (Russia) to Luhanst region,” – said Lisenko.

and yet you really think the West does not know who fired the Buk?

kaur

07-20-2014, 06:25 PM

Another SBU tape about separatists and black boxes.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9ff_LTlZZI8&list=UURxyjhmvBewJIRb2yku5EuQ

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 06:46 PM

Outlaw,

How do you see the incident, and your insistence of total Russian guilt in the matter, affecting the outcome of the conflict, if at all?

AP--what do you call a country that allows and provides heavy weapons
T64s/artillery/BM 21s/APCs/SAM 11s (3), irregular fighters and trains them---1) a none participant, 2) totally uninvolved third party with no interests, and or 3) a belligerent under international definitions from say 1995. Verified multiple times even via voice intercepts. I call the Ukrainian mercenaries a proxy army for Russia which in effect they are and proxy armies died out with the Soviet Union in 1995.

Russian (from it's soil) has fired multiple BM 21 attacks into the Ukraine with heavy personnel and equipment losses, Russian Mig29 shots down a Ukrainian SU 25 , Russian mortar attacks from Russian soil against Ukrainian border crossing points and a captured young Russian recruit in Russian uniform 45kms inside the Ukraine is what---the actions of a non violent neighbor or a belligerent under international law. All verified.

Russia is in fact at war with the Ukraine the last three weeks but the West does not want to call it that.

Why- the Russian irregulars that Putin verbally motivated have lost a third of their territory and are now encircled in two large cities with the Ukrainian Army indicating they will accept civilian loses in order to restore the Ukrainian sovereignty. Basically the Russian irregulars/mercenaries originally verbally supported by Putin are losing and Putin does not like to lose to the West.

Putin though cannot have them lose and thus the problem---this aircraft downing will effect him in a number of ways--the US/EU if the crash investigation is not fully, correctly, and clearly done and Russia does not support it I am suspecting the EU/US will go to full sectorial sanctions focusing on Gasprom---at that movement Putin will understand the trouble the Russian economy is in and is it spiraling out of control and sinking now daily since the shot down.

Can Putin climb down without his own personal respect and image he has created in Russia being damaged and without a fight--am not sure-- that is the deep question but if full sanctions come his economy will be damaged for the next ten years and any idea of a superpower status will die with that economy.

Again under the definition of international relations Russia is in fact currently a belligerent country.

This crash has effectively changed the dynamics on the ground and in the international relations world. If Putin does not get it under control his ultra nationalist/fasist side he might in fact see NATO start providing weapons, training and yes even SF advisors on the ground which Putin initially stated he never wanted NATO in the Ukraine---but the shot down tosses everything up now--notice the US/NATO has just declared the Ukraine a non NATO ally which opens up such support.

Basically the West no longer believes anything Putin says he will do as he has never fulfilled a single stated thing he promised he would do.

Actually if one goes back to the Soviet shot down of KAL007 Russia is acting in the same manner--and a lot of questions were not answered by the Soviets in 1983 about KAL007.

By the way why is it so hard these days to have any country (person) accept responsibility if they are so deeply involved and it is clearly proven --when did we get away from that principle. Check the KAL007 incident and you will virtually see the same arguments being used today by Russia--they never seem to learn.

JMA

07-20-2014, 06:52 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 07:21 PM

Had the US and EU acted decisively and firmly this would not have happened.

The US is the weakest it has ever been and Germany - caught with its reliance on Russian natural gas - has been quite pathetic. When this reliance was discussed here at SWC our (recently departed) German 'expert' asserted that Russia needed the income from the sales as much as Germany needed the gas thereby suggesting mutual dependence. Once again we see Germany's inability to make top level strategic decisions... they started two world wars and lost them both, now they have become a Russian lapdog.

JMA--fully agree if they had both gone to full sectorial sanctions this would have never happened and Ukraine would have been far quieter these days and Putin would have been in his cage and the Europe a quiet place for the next 20 years.

Notice Merkel has absolutely nothing to say nor does her FM---absolutely nothing.

Soft power without true hard power to make a point never succeeds anywhere in the 21st century.

OUTLAW 09

07-20-2014, 09:45 PM

1. Then tell me how the "group of disorganised thugs" which numbers is about several thousand of lightly armed militia managed to resist few dosens of thousands of regulars with bells and whistles for a months. You would argue that in "Ukraine" thead, if you please.

2. Sorry, NOTAMs is China to me, even with your explanation. You assume that Russia has a priopri knowledge that something nasty will happen in Ukrainian airspace, provided that separatists surely got the Buks?

Outlaw. now I completely understand why you are lost cause to reason and common sence

1. you have very short memory and you don't understand probabilistic statements

while I admit the presence of Russian volunteers in South-East

2. you are unfamiliar with causation and timing

Before train arrives to Donetsk it has to depart and make its way.

3. You almost never provide relevant link

The separatists have long demonstrated that they’re willing to go to grotesque lengths to keep eastern Ukraine out of Kiev’s hands. Desperate to avoid both culpability and defeat, they’re now using the bodies of MH17 victims as collateral to achieve those ends.

comrade not so expert on Russia mirhond---those volunteers or what others would call mercenaries---by the way---when did they allow the train with the bodies leave the crash site my friend mirhond?

now do not attempt to spin us another of your lies---it is still there when you stated here it was already leaving for Donetsk---your own words was it not comrade.

but hey let's see what those "volunteers" or better "zealous Christian mercenary" Cossacks are doing with the bodies that you defended was proper to loot from?

comrade mirhond---you know exatly where the train is--it has not even left as your Cossak "volunteers" or actually now murders and thieves since they were the ones that shot down the aircraft and looted their bodies.

now they are holding the bodies as "hostages"---well so much for their Christian rituals and respect for the dead but then again they are not even Christians are they mirhond?

seems as if they are trying to trade the bodies of the slaughtered 298 in exchange for a cease fire and the Ukrainian Army pulling out of their territory.

now just how is that going to be accepted by the international community mirhond--Gasprom I hear the sanctions coming and the Cossacks will be blamed for crashing the Russian economy with the stupid move to hold dead bodies hostage--but then you defended their rituals right mirhond?

link about your non Christian Cossacks taking dead bodies "hostage" is below.

comrade mirhond I have heard the brave Christian Cossacks have been hiding behind civilians in those cities they claim to be defending because they are afraid to face the Ukrainian Airborne units---- but to hide behind dead bodies to protect themselves from defeat---even you mirhond must find that funny and sad for the historic "brave" Cossacks----hiding behind dead bodies wow.

here is the link for you to practice your English with---good reading my friend-and again wow Cossack history in the making what a chapter.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/118779/malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-victims-held-hostage-ukraine-rebels

Bill Moore

07-21-2014, 02:38 AM

A very graphic video of the crash site. Hard to believe this will simply blow over in time, but I suspect it will.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Px2rfWBW4wg

AmericanPride

07-21-2014, 04:28 AM

AP--what do you call a country that allows and provides heavy weapons
T64s/artillery/BM 21s/APCs/SAM 11s (3), irregular fighters and trains them---1) a none participant, 2) totally uninvolved third party with no interests, and or 3) a belligerent under international definitions from say 1995. Verified multiple times even via voice intercepts. I call the Ukrainian mercenaries a proxy army for Russia which in effect they are and proxy armies died out with the Soviet Union in 1995.

How's that any different from most conflicts in, say, the preceding 100 years? How is knowledge of the extent of the militia's autonomy or acknowledgment of Russian sponsorship relevant to U.S. ability to influence a favorable outcome?

Russia is in fact at war with the Ukraine the last three weeks but the West does not want to call it that.

Probably because the U.S. does not want its own war against Russia. If that's the case, I agree with the intention.

Basically the Russian irregulars/mercenaries originally verbally supported by Putin are losing and Putin does not like to lose to the West.

Does anyone like losing? So what?

Putin though cannot have them lose and thus the problem---this aircraft downing will effect him in a number of ways--the US/EU if the crash investigation is not fully, correctly, and clearly done and Russia does not support it I am suspecting the EU/US will go to full sectorial sanctions focusing on Gasprom---at that movement Putin will understand the trouble the Russian economy is in and is it spiraling out of control and sinking now daily since the shot down.

The handling of the incident and crash site may open the door politically for more U.S. sanctions. But it's not the sanctions that's damaging Russia's economy; it's the uncertainty of the conflict's outcome. Historically speaking, sanctions are generally ineffective in compelling policy changes.

Can Putin climb down without his own personal respect and image he has created in Russia being damaged and without a fight--am not sure-- that is the deep question but if full sanctions come his economy will be damaged for the next ten years and any idea of a superpower status will die with that economy.

The Putin administration's popularity is at an all time high. Given effective state control of the media, it's obvious that any downward turn in the Russian economy will be blamed on the U.S. Is that the kind of political environment we want to foster in Russia? The Clinton and Bush administrations already effectively destroyed the credibility of the liberals in Russian politics.

Again under the definition of international relations Russia is in fact currently a belligerent country.

And?

This crash has effectively changed the dynamics on the ground and in the international relations world. If Putin does not get it under control his ultra nationalist/fasist side he might in fact see NATO start providing weapons, training and yes even SF advisors on the ground which Putin initially stated he never wanted NATO in the Ukraine---but the shot down tosses everything up now--notice the US/NATO has just declared the Ukraine a non NATO ally which opens up such support.

So - what you're saying is that the incident is a pretext for the U.S. to escalate the conflict further by providing arms and direct assistance rather than pursuing a cease fire and negotiated settlement? Has any consideration been given to the long-term political ramifications for Ukraine's internal politics and the dyadic relationship with Russia if the separatists are destroyed? Does that resolve Ukraine's political problems?

Actually if one goes back to the Soviet shot down of KAL007 Russia is acting in the same manner--and a lot of questions were not answered by the Soviets in 1983 about KAL007.

By the way why is it so hard these days to have any country (person) accept responsibility if they are so deeply involved and it is clearly proven --when did we get away from that principle.

There are very few, if any, similarities between the incidents. If any two incidents share similarities, it's the U.S. government's response to it's shoot down of the Iranian airliner in 1988 in which the U.S. refused to apologize on the grounds that it occurred in a war-time environment. This is not a question of moral culpability but instead of a state's place in the international power structure. If Russia has the power to not take responsibility, why would it or should it?

Had the US and EU acted decisively and firmly this would not have happened.

In what ways could the U.S. have 'acted decisively'? In the way that Russia acted decisively in seizing Crimea and sponsoring the separatists? There is a continuum of commitment levels - first, U.S. soft power intervention in Ukraine's internal unrest, followed by a lightning strike of Russian hard power combined with sponsoring militants and providing political cover, to be followed by what U.S. escalation of commitment? Outlaw suggested providing arms and advisers. What happens when a U.S. adviser is killed by a separatists, or worst, killed by a Russian direct action team? What if it was a U.S. recce aircraft that was shot down instead of a civilian airliner? At that point, the U.S. would have no options but to further escalate its commitment less it risk destroying its credibility. Is that the kind of route we want to take with Russia? The problem is that Russia got in first and beat us to the punch. Further commitments by the U.S. means escalating the conflict, and that means directly confronting Russia. I don't think that's politically feasible for America's own internal politics.

but hey let's see what those "volunteers" or better "zealous Christian mercenary" Cossacks are doing with the bodies that you defended was proper to loot from?

I fear your overzealous morality offensive is not conducive to actually producing an accurate understanding of the situation or to exploring realistic outcomes to the conflicts. Those same people you are condemning also set up memorials and shrines at the crash site and Russians demonstrated their sympathy at embassies in Moscow. Given that the separatists do not have a fully functioning government or a national army, I'm not surprised they did not have a plan to handle an incident of this kind nor were prepared to negotiate the details of an investigation with the Kiev government (with whom they're engaged in a bitter conflict).

It also should not be forgotten that in the same breath you are condemning the withholding of transferring the victims' bodies over to Ukrainian custody as political leverage for a cease-fire, you are also advocating using the deaths of those same persons to justify the escalation of the conflict through more direct U.S. intervention.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 06:31 AM

AP---this goes to the heart of something I have often noticed about your type of comments---you ask for something then in the fashion from say a Dayuhan you decide to use it to tear something about.

Now I will reverse the process---just what is then your position to 1) a proxy army fighting in the place of a regular army, 2) is Russia in fact after using Russian weapons from Russian soil a belligerent or what a very friendly not interested third party, and 3) you are really attempting to tell me the US has no ability to "influence"? Come on AP get real.

1. everyone acts as if the US is behind this or that but do we have to go back and repeat what happened in the Crimea and have you actually taken the time to read the Putin Doctrine that he formally read in front of the Duma

2. have you really read the new Russian military doctrine "New Generation Warfare"--in it you will see the concept of carrying out UW in support of political warfare

3. read the concept of political warfare and then understand how it is tied to the new Russian military doctrine

Now after you have read the relevant doctrine then sit down and take the time to state your comments here instead of asking and then tearing--state your comment by taking the doctrine and every move Russia has made and at the end then tell me Russia is not following their publicized doctrine to the letter.

And if you come to the realization that it is in fact following every step of their doctrine---then what is your solution.

Believe me the pressure point is Gasprom---it is the Achilles of the oligarchs, Putin, the military and the security services ---why because it is their single product they earn billons on cut the billions and Russia stands still.

Having dealt with the former UdSSR, the KGB and the MfS, and SB for over 40 years---in contrast to you I camped for over 6 weeks through the UdSSR in 1972 when many Americans were "not even aware of the UdSSR outside of the nuclear attack drills as a school kid" and having served in a couple of wars that had Russian weapons shooting at me --I think I have earned the right to have morals---you might agree but the lack of holding to basic morals has complicate the world the last 11 years---ask Bush about that.

Sometimes in the world of international relations morals have to get in the way---that is why we are where we are today because when morals are violated or in this case the bodies of slaughtered civilians are what---just the norm and nothing should happen.

flip the question--do you think the Gaza incursion now by Israel is a valid response to a bunch of rockets that have not hit anything other than sand?

After reading your own comments below have you even listened to the SBU intercepts which have been confirmed by the US as authentic and yesterday even a former Russian intel officer who is fighting in the Ukraine confirmed it is his voice "but taken out of context--really out of context?"

Now after listening do you still stand by your comments AP?

Now to your comments here;

I fear your overzealous morality offensive is not conducive to actually producing an accurate understanding of the situation or to exploring realistic outcomes to the conflicts. Those same people you are condemning also set up memorials and shrines at the crash site and Russians demonstrated their sympathy at embassies in Moscow. Given that the separatists do not have a fully functioning government or a national army, I'm not surprised they did not have a plan to handle an incident of this kind nor were prepared to negotiate the details of an investigation with the Kiev government (with whom they're engaged in a bitter conflict).

It also should not be forgotten that in the same breath you are condemning the withholding of transferring the victims' bodies over to Ukrainian custody as political leverage for a cease-fire, you are also advocating using the deaths of those same persons to justify the escalation of the conflict through more direct U.S. intervention.

So let's see AP the shot down and killing of 298 people and now holding their bodies as hostages is what---a just a back to business as usual event---come on even you cannot believe that AP.

I lost two close US SF officer friends on Pan Am and we still do not really know who was behind that one do we? I should have been on that flight but took a later one--maybe luck maybe not.

What did we demand for the Lockerbie Pan Am flight incident AP?

mirhond

07-21-2014, 07:29 AM

This is not a question of moral culpability but instead of a state's place in the international power structure. If Russia has the power to not take responsibility, why would it or should it?

For Outlaw the answer is obvious - Russia must take responsibility because Ukraine (and American minisrty of truth, may be) says so.

Biggus

07-21-2014, 07:32 AM

biggus---not one being up to date on air space management but does not the closing of the Rostov air space via their ATC in fact close that particular set of routes on the Ukrainian side that would cross into the Rostov air space causing at least reroutes?

Something caused the terrorist at the crash site to be astounded about civilian aircraft overhead.

Technically, no, I don't believe that closing the airway segments on the Russian side would legally close the segments on the Ukrainian side. In practice, I would assume that those airway route segments on an east-west axis would see a reduction in traffic to the point where only very far western Ukraine sees any activity, but there might even be an increase in traffic on the north-south axis. After watching some live tracking through the area last night, I'm inclined to believe that this is the case.

Biggus

07-21-2014, 08:10 AM

For Outlaw the answer is obvious - Russia must take responsibility because Ukraine (and Amreican minisrty of truth, may be) says so.

Perhaps it would be worth revisiting Kaur's post from yesterday.

Moral culpability is ultimately without consequence at this level. It still exists, though. I will be interested to see whether Putin is invited to G20.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 09:24 AM

For Outlaw the answer is obvious - Russia must take responsibility because Ukraine (and American minisrty of truth, may be) says so.

comrade not so Russian expert mirhond---here is where you and I greatly differ---if two different satellite recordings indicate the exact location of the Buk missile launch and that is in fact nowhere close to/next to/near to /approximately next to/or even remotely in the air above a Ukrainian AD site then yes in fact Russia must assume responsibility for the missile downing the airliner. anything else that you might attempt to state is an outright lie my friend.

because what other explanation is there---if in fact there were no Ukrainians anywhere to be found---secondly you really need to check the Russian mercenary tweets---one of the individuals named in the voice intercept concerning the shot down "admitted" in his tweet that yes it was his voice BUT it had been "tampered with" BUT he does not say "what was tampered with"---and by the way the US intelligence community confirms the validity of the voice intercepts---that means the NSA has the same recording and I am sure they did not "tamper" with anything my friend

in your own words and your fallacies---if I "allow" Cossacks to cross my supposedly enhanced border, if I call the dogs of war called ultra nationalists/fascists, neo nationalists, war tourists to fight the Nazi's and junta all day long on my own media channels, if I provide the heavy weapons ie T64s/APC/GRADs/KAMAZ trucks/ and three Buks via a "civil society" whatever that is as no one in Russia seems to know what it is yet uses the words, if I rocket and mortar from my own soil into the Ukraine and if I fire air to air missiles from my own soil downing a Ukrainian jet, if I allow those dogs of war to hold dead bodies as hostages-- then what mirhond?

then in fact comrade I "own" the dogs of war and if I cannot control them even though I am responsible for calling them into life--- which is now what is happening because there are at least five different Russian mercenary groups in eastern Ukraine- and no one is in control as these groups are so busy looting, kidnapping, killing "non Christians", creating mass graves in the towns where they recently were driven from and looting dead bodies ---then what my friend.

then comrade no all knowing Russia expert YES Russia must take responsibility as the giver of birth to these groups.

by the way comrade mirhond---was it not Putin himself that stated the West is disrespecting the superpower status of Russia---then in that case and in Putin's own statements RUSSIA OWNS THE DOGS OF WAR my friend and spinning anything else is a waste of time on your part ---affectively since the shot down you have even lost the information war as well becuae the world is juding you and Putin now on actions not words my friends.

all that comes from you and Putin are words nothing more nothing less and when things go badly it is the other person's fault right mirhond--what a fallacy concept.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 09:40 AM

Perhaps it would be worth revisiting Kaur's post from yesterday.

Moral culpability is ultimately without consequence at this level. It still exists, though. I will be interested to see whether Putin is invited to G20.

biggus---this goes to APs earlier comments directed at me---I still believe that nations have a moral statement towards their population---ie rule of law and good governance and would have moved inalong those lines the same concept directed towards their neighbors. The so called balance of power was based on the ability of countries to accurately judge eah others actions and naturally on nuclear weapons---if the Ukraine had not given those up do you really think Putin into the Crimea?

In Putin's drive to regain superpower status he violated that premise by actually resorting to force to annex territory under the so called guise of "self determination" based on language---upsetting in fact roughly 70 years of established boundaries---established by no other than the Soviet Union under the flag of the Red Army including some countries who had nothing to do with Hitler ie the Baltics.

The European newspapers this morning are screaming for blood as they at their populations level sense the slaughter of true innocents and the handling of their bodies being held hostage is something that goes beyond "normality" and must be reigned in.

That outrage will in fact be leveled on Tuesday if Russian does not get a grip on those at the crash site--previously Russia was ahead in the opinion side of the European/German populations for maybe being right in this dispute but it was lost with the downing and is shifting far faster than I have ever seen opinions shift in the EU.

It all has to do with the perception of common human decency. and right now Russia/Putin seem in their eyes to not seem to care about that.

Wikipedia:
Morality (from the Latin moralitas "manner, character, proper behavior") is the differentiation of intentions, decisions, and actions between those that are "good" (or right) and those that are "bad" (or wrong).[citation needed] Morality can be a body of standards or principles derived from a code of conduct from a particular philosophy, religion, culture, etc., or it can derive from a standard that a person believes should be universal.[1] Morality may also be specifically synonymous with "goodness" or "rightness." Immorality is the active opposition to morality (i.e. opposition to that which is good or right), while amorality is variously defined as an unawareness of, indifference toward, or disbelief in any set of moral standards or principles.[

Right now they see no Russian morality.

Gasprom will be the target--watch for it.

There is now sentiment growing in the EU to pull the FIFA 2018 games from Russia and if the crash site issues are not resolved by tomorrow and Putin assumes responsibility for the crash site and his dogs of war then it will be pulled.

G20---not a chance---the invitation will not even be sent--he can show up but will be standing in the door.

European general mood has shifted greatly in the last 72 hrs and it has to do with the poor treatment and on respect for the dead bodies.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 09:53 AM

How's that any different from most conflicts in, say, the preceding 100 years? How is knowledge of the extent of the militia's autonomy or acknowledgment of Russian sponsorship relevant to U.S. ability to influence a favorable outcome?

Probably because the U.S. does not want its own war against Russia. If that's the case, I agree with the intention.

Does anyone like losing? So what?

The handling of the incident and crash site may open the door politically for more U.S. sanctions. But it's not the sanctions that's damaging Russia's economy; it's the uncertainty of the conflict's outcome. Historically speaking, sanctions are generally ineffective in compelling policy changes.

The Putin administration's popularity is at an all time high. Given effective state control of the media, it's obvious that any downward turn in the Russian economy will be blamed on the U.S. Is that the kind of political environment we want to foster in Russia? The Clinton and Bush administrations already effectively destroyed the credibility of the liberals in Russian politics.

And?

So - what you're saying is that the incident is a pretext for the U.S. to escalate the conflict further by providing arms and direct assistance rather than pursuing a cease fire and negotiated settlement? Has any consideration been given to the long-term political ramifications for Ukraine's internal politics and the dyadic relationship with Russia if the separatists are destroyed? Does that resolve Ukraine's political problems?

There are very few, if any, similarities between the incidents. If any two incidents share similarities, it's the U.S. government's response to it's shoot down of the Iranian airliner in 1988 in which the U.S. refused to apologize on the grounds that it occurred in a war-time environment. This is not a question of moral culpability but instead of a state's place in the international power structure. If Russia has the power to not take responsibility, why would it or should it?

In what ways could the U.S. have 'acted decisively'? In the way that Russia acted decisively in seizing Crimea and sponsoring the separatists? There is a continuum of commitment levels - first, U.S. soft power intervention in Ukraine's internal unrest, followed by a lightning strike of Russian hard power combined with sponsoring militants and providing political cover, to be followed by what U.S. escalation of commitment? Outlaw suggested providing arms and advisers. What happens when a U.S. adviser is killed by a separatists, or worst, killed by a Russian direct action team? What if it was a U.S. recce aircraft that was shot down instead of a civilian airliner? At that point, the U.S. would have no options but to further escalate its commitment less it risk destroying its credibility. Is that the kind of route we want to take with Russia? The problem is that Russia got in first and beat us to the punch. Further commitments by the U.S. means escalating the conflict, and that means directly confronting Russia. I don't think that's politically feasible for America's own internal politics.

I fear your overzealous morality offensive is not conducive to actually producing an accurate understanding of the situation or to exploring realistic outcomes to the conflicts. Those same people you are condemning also set up memorials and shrines at the crash site and Russians demonstrated their sympathy at embassies in Moscow. Given that the separatists do not have a fully functioning government or a national army, I'm not surprised they did not have a plan to handle an incident of this kind nor were prepared to negotiate the details of an investigation with the Kiev government (with whom they're engaged in a bitter conflict).

It also should not be forgotten that in the same breath you are condemning the withholding of transferring the victims' bodies over to Ukrainian custody as political leverage for a cease-fire, you are also advocating using the deaths of those same persons to justify the escalation of the conflict through more direct U.S. intervention.

So AP--let me hear your opinions on this Wikipedia statement--and you can keep it short here or take it off line via PM.

Morality (from the Latin moralitas "manner, character, proper behavior") is the differentiation of intentions, decisions, and actions between those that are "good" (or right) and those that are "bad" (or wrong).[citation needed] Morality can be a body of standards or principles derived from a code of conduct from a particular philosophy, religion, culture, etc., or it can derive from a standard that a person believes should be universal.[1] Morality may also be specifically synonymous with "goodness" or "rightness." Immorality is the active opposition to morality (i.e. opposition to that which is good or right), while amorality is variously defined as an unawareness of, indifference toward, or disbelief in any set of moral standards or principles.[

So AP based on your comment who is right and who is wrong and do you not think that holding dead bodies as hostages while their families want to bury them and grieve is what moral or immoral?

Do you consider the actions/any actions outside of just verbiage taken so far by Putin and the Russian government in attempting to assist in the international investigation and to properly secure the crash site moral or immoral AP?

AP--do you believe that a nation and or a group of nations that demand adherence to a common humanity standard and interactions between countries especially if it is a neighboring country is moral or immoral?

AP ---if one can/could/influence control the situation but chooses for political reasons to let the dogs of war roam in the defense of "self determination based on language only"---and that results in no actions being taken is that moral or immoral??

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 10:26 AM

STRELA 10Ms now in the Ukraine:

Wonder how an armored vehicle got through the Putin declared "enhanced security border"?

http://inforesist.org/en/borodai-we-...rela-10m-sams/

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 10:34 AM

Change of pace article from my world concerning the shot down:

Researchers at the anti-virus firm Trend Micro came across some suspicious tweets written in Indonesian language. The cybercriminals are using the trending #MH17 to lure innocent users who are actually looking for news related to Malaysian Airplane Flight MH17 crash down. The suspicious tweets started spreading just after Malaysian Airline tweeted on July 17: “Malaysia Airlines has lost contact of MH17 from Amsterdam. The last known position was over Ukrainian airspace.” Hundreds of users have already retweeted those malicious tweets that indirectly encourage their individual followers to visit the malicious links. The website belongs to a shared hosting located in U.S which also host number of legitimate domains and researchers concluded that the purpose behind the spam campaign could be to gain attention of the visitors in order to make money from the advertisement. Moreover, the shared hosting also provide hostage to a number of malicious domains as well, that are connected to a ZeuS variant and SALITY malware. ZeuS are very well known to steal financial information of the users, while SALITY is a “malware family of file infectors that infect .SCR and .EXE files,” researchers said in a blog post. “Once systems are infected with this file infector, it can open their systems to other malware infections thus compromising their security.” This is not first time cyber criminals targeted Malaysian airlines. Also few months back, spammers targeted missing Malaysian plan and spread malware on the social networking sites including Facebook, abusing the mystery behind the Malaysia Airline Flight MH370, a Boeing 777-200 aircraft that had gone missing by the time it flew from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

http://thehackernews.com/2014/07/cyber-criminals-use-malaysia-airlines.html#sthash.fAeDcbkb.dpuf

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 11:10 AM

Outlaw,

How do you see the incident, and your insistence of total Russian guilt in the matter, affecting the outcome of the conflict, if at all?

AP--notice the article leans in the direction I wrote about--especially the comments concerning Putin's actions-appears I am not the only one seeing Putin for what he is.

Notice the use of the term "war" but now from the Russian viewpoint. Russia is in fact "at war" at least that is Putin and co.'s view.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-billionaires-horror-putin-risks-200001106.html

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 01:22 PM

comrade not knowing anything lately mirhond--you guys have got to get your stories correct---kind of like calling the kettle black when it had been repainted five hours earlier white.

now we have a Russian Ambassador seemingly another Russian expert of authenticating voice intercepts stating the intercepts much like you stated mirhond are "fakes".

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140721/191073257/Russian-Ambassador-Calls-Militia-Phone-Call-Intercepts-Fake.html

one of the men who spoke on the tapes stated but only after the US indicated they were authentic (maybe the NSA whispered in his ear) that YES the tapes were authentic and that was his voice BUT it was taken out of context ---wait again ----what was taken out of context he did not say but still an admission the tapes were valid----probably taken out of context was---maybe he jwas thinking hey we shot down a AN 26 which he admitted to on them but really in the back of his mind it was a civilian airliner and he knew it but he just "misspoke".

but wait... did not the Ambassador state the tapes were totally "fakes"---he must have not checked with central control in Donetsk for his interview marching orders

care to comment on the ambassador just as you were wrong mirhond especially after the mercenary on the tapes admitted it was his voice?

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 02:23 PM

Russian smokescreens number 10 and 11---indicating they are still trying to pin it on the Ukrainians "assuming" the Ukrainians shot down the plane either with the SU 25 which might be a technical challenge and their own Buk system that they alledged "moved somewhere".

Actually the SU 25 is an old story just recycled for today since the first time through it did not fly as well.

Interfax:
07/21 16:59 ON THE DAY BOEING CRASHED RUSSIAN CONTROL MEANS OBSERVED SU-25 ATTACK AIRCRAFT ASCEND IN ITS DIRECTION - DEFENSE MINISTRY

This is the second time around as well for this story which was first released by the Russian FM.
Interfax:
07/21 16:55 THE DAY BOEING CRASH OCCURRED UKRAINIAN BUK MISSILE BATTERY WAS REDEPLOYED TOWARDS DONETSK TO AN AREA WHERE MILITIA IS BASED - RUSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY.

You would think that the Russian media information war guys read this morning that the US has the pinpoint launch site and there were no Ukrainian Buks in that area. Maybe that is what they are trying to counter.

Probably for internal consummation or for the EU meeting today where new sanctions will be announced.

mirhond

07-21-2014, 03:42 PM

comrade not so Russian expert mirhond---here is where you and I greatly differ---if two different satellite recordings indicate the exact location of the Buk missile launch and that is in fact nowhere close to/next to/near to /approximately next to/or even remotely in the air above a Ukrainian AD site then

Links or you know what..

Mister moral fa..., sorry, Outlaw, do you have a "plan B" in case an international investigation comes to conclusion that MH17 was shot down by Ukrainians? Or you just shrug it off and say "So what? #### happens."
If no, I give you a hint - blame Putin, as usual ;)

Perhaps it would be worth revisiting Kaur's post from yesterday.

Moral culpability is ultimately without consequence at this level. It still exists, though. I will be interested to see whether Putin is invited to G20.

You mean the post where he wrote that Russa gives everything to sepapatists?
You believe it's enough to come to conclusion that separatists shot down a plane and further Investigation is unnessesary?

upd.
Russian DoD press-conference on the subject, corteously translated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=125

AmericanPride

07-21-2014, 04:33 PM

Outlaw,

just what is then your position to 1) a proxy army fighting in the place of a regular army

I have no 'position' on this. States will use proxies to forward their own interests when the conditions suit them. Every major power has done this. What makes Russia's activity in Ukraine uniquely objectionable? At a political level, Washington, et. al will use all the ammunition available, including moral outrage, to impose it's desired political outcome on the Russians. Got it. But that's not useful here at our level in actually understanding the problem and identifying viable solutions.

is Russia in fact after using Russian weapons from Russian soil a belligerent or what a very friendly not interested third party

Yes, Russia is a belligerent. Russia purposely intervened in the conflict in the pursuit of their desired political ends; something I have stated repeatedly in other threads. In fact, since the formation of the Federation, Russia has about a 70% success rate in its military interventions. Moscow exploited Washington's lack of foresight to gain a seat at Kiev's political table. It paid off in Crimea; eastern Ukraine is still up for grabs.

you are really attempting to tell me the US has no ability to "influence"?

I did not say that the U.S. has 'no ability to influence'. But I have said that U.S. options are extremely limited in this scenario for a variety of domestic, regional, and relative capabilities reasons.

2. have you really read the new Russian military doctrine "New Generation Warfare"--in it you will see the concept of carrying out UW in support of political warfare

I agree. I have written about this as well. But moralizing about it doesn't actually prevent or reverse it.

And if you come to the realization that it is in fact following every step of their doctrine---then what is your solution.

I stated at the start of this crisis that a negotiatied settlement forming a unity government through an open and fair election is my proposed solution. That's assuming that territorial integrity, political sovreignty, and self-determination are principles we believe should govern the international system and inter-state relations. Whatever you think of the current Kiev government, that opinion is not universal, especially in parts of eastern Ukraine obviously. Destroy the separatists by military force does not actually resolve the fundamental political problem in Ukraine.

I think I have earned the right to have morals---you might agree but the lack of holding to basic morals has complicate the world the last 11 years---ask Bush about that.

Hold whatever morals you want. Just don't assume that everyone else does or should agree with you.

flip the question--do you think the Gaza incursion now by Israel is a valid response to a bunch of rockets that have not hit anything other than sand?

Define 'valid'.

So let's see AP the shot down and killing of 298 people and now holding their bodies as hostages is what---a just a back to business as usual event---come on even you cannot believe that AP.

The incident itself and the deaths is of course sad. However, is it politically or materially relevant to the conflict's outcome? Washington is attempting to make that case - but it's not because of the moral revulsion in killing innocent people. It's because it's further leverage in building a coalition in sanctioning Russia - a strategy that I think is ineffective. The stated goal is stop Russia's aid to the insurgents - probably with the goal of isolating the insurgents so they can be destroyed. Why would Russia reverse course now that it's already committed to their aid? The only time Moscow walked back from its commitments was when the Donetsk referendum asked to be annexed to Russia like Crimea, but Russia ignored that request (which also is an indicator that Russia does not have 100% control over the movement). Moscow seems to want Ukraine on a low burn; that makes sense. They don't want to commit any further than necessary, like Washington, but they also do not want to give up their influence in Ukraine without a fight. And they have strong public support domestically in this cause. Neither the shoot-down incident or the sanctions change that calculus. So - yes - after the furor fades, it will be back to 'business as usual'. What is the political outcome that you are expecting? That Russia will say, "Gee, you're right, we're such terrible people, and our cause is so unjust, we'll just let go of Ukraine and let the West do as it pleases"? Come on Outlaw, you're smarter than that.

mirhond

07-21-2014, 04:40 PM

Outlaw, I have no 'position' on this.

Oh, you can't "have no position", Qui non est nobiscum adversus nos est.
by Outlaw's logic you might be Putin's proxy or even an FSB agent, as well :)

ps. thanks a lot for a new signature.

Biggus

07-21-2014, 04:41 PM

You mean the post where he wrote that Russa gives everything to sepapatists?
You believe it's enough to come to conclusion that separatists shot down a plane and further Investigation is unnessesary?

upd.
Russian DoD press-conference on the subject
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=125

I'm going to go with what the bulk of the evidence suggests at this time. I don't agree with every single one of Kaur's points, and I think they're oversimplified, but thus far everything is pointing at rebels. Most likely with some level of Russian support or advice, or at least consent. You yourself a few days ago admitted that it was 60% likely that the separatists did the deed. But hey, how much further investigation can realistically happen at this point when virtually all of the physical evidence has been compromised?

Something else has been bothering me. If a Buk TELAR went live without someone in the Russian military approving of it in a place where it could reach into Russian territory, I'd expect at the very least a near-immediate ramping up of ECM jamming, and most likely within a couple of hours perhaps an anti-radar missile or three. Surely there would be some concern when a radar warning receiver somewhere in Russia started detecting emissions.

AmericanPride

07-21-2014, 04:48 PM

For Outlaw the answer is obvious - Russia must take responsibility because Ukraine (and American minisrty of truth, may be) says so.

At some level, Russia is responsible. We can debate all day long about the extent of that responsibility and what that means politically and legally, but in the dyadic relationship between the U.S. and Russia, I doubt that determining culpability will actually move the parties closer to resolving the conflict.

In a quantitative analysis I completed several months ago, I determined that Russia ranked #2 in military power behind the U.S (and #3 overall behind the U.S. and China). The U.S. has a strong and distant lead on Russia, but the structural advantages of occupying second place (due in large part to Russia's nuclear arsenal) is enormous. Sturucally speaking, the U.S. is not a hegemon; it does not have the unilateral power to dictate terms to every other state or alliance of states. It has the power to dictate terms to most other states, but Russia is not one of them as the situation in Ukraine makes clear. So - if the U.S. is unwilling to commit to further conflict escalation (for a number of reasons), terminating conflict will have to be completed through a negotiated settlment. What will such a settlement look like?

mirhond

07-21-2014, 05:00 PM

I
Something else has been bothering me. If a Buk TELAR went live without someone in the Russian military approving of it in a place where it could reach into Russian territory, I'd expect at the very least a near-immediate ramping up of ECM jamming, and most likely within a couple of hours perhaps an anti-radar missile or three. Surely there would be some concern when a radar warning receiver somewhere in Russia started detecting emissions.

Got it. But I find it very unlikely that Russian military would fire HARMs just in case, to prevent possible launches at civilian planes, especially if there is an order from the uppermost entities "do not preclude"

mirhond

07-21-2014, 05:09 PM

So - if the U.S. is unwilling to commit to further conflict escalation (for a number of reasons), terminating conflict will have to be completed through a negotiated settlment. What will such a settlement look like?

So, there is a possibility that US is flogging Ukraine to fight harder for a face sake? It's a new idea to me.. well, how much it is important "not to lose face" for the US political class?
Anyway, even if we take this hipothesis as a base, something must be done with "proxies", who already invested their lives into the fight. Sheer speculation - real federalisation of the Ukraine might work, in some extent.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 05:14 PM

Links or you know what..

Mister moral fa..., sorry, Outlaw, do you have a "plan B" in case an international investigation comes to conclusion that MH17 was shot down by Ukrainians? Or you just shrug it off and say "So what? #### happens."
If no, I give you a hint - blame Putin, as usual ;)

You mean the post where he wrote that Russa gives everything to sepapatists?
You believe it's enough to come to conclusion that separatists shot down a plane and further Investigation is unnessesary?

upd.
Russian DoD press-conference on the subject, corteously translated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpeo5RcQQo#t=125

so sensitive so sensitive comrade mirhond when the truth hurts it really hurts my friend---

here is another smoke screen fake press release as the Putin and company is desperately trying to divert the global outrage over the Russian destruction of a civilian aircraft or comrade mirhond you really do not think there are European "volunteers" in the Ukraine do you?

now comrade mirhond---do not run down that rat hole of European Nazi's forming to support the junta set of comments--you wore those out about 100 comments ago my friend.

come on comrade you all just cannot accept that the Ukrainians have out maneuvered Putin and are day for day reestablishing their sovereignty--
WITH virtually no assistance from outside---all on their own---seems Ukrainians are better fighters than you Russian mercenaries comrade mirhond so get over it--- they are losing and losing badly even with Russian support.

which means comrade mirhond Russia is not much of a superpower right mirhond?

yes Putin could now invade the Donetsk but then his economy would be destroyed within six months.

Another smokescreen "fake story" to divert the crash narrative:

Interfax from today mirhond:
07/21 19:39 RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY DEMANDS EUROPEAN STATES INVESTIGATE FACTS OF THEIR CITIZENS' PARTICIPATION IN CLASHES IN EASTERN UKRAINE

mirhond your side is side stepping --side stepping the debate my friend.

Putin is up to 12 different stories about the crash now my friend mirhond and they are all "fakes"---you guys are losing slowly the information war narrative.

read and weep

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 05:24 PM

Got it. But I find it very unlikely that Russian military would fire HARMs just in case, to prevent possible launches at civilian planes, especially if there is an order from the uppermost entities "do not preclude"

see military expert mirhond---what you do not get is the why?---why if I know what the use of the SAM 11 will be namely air space denial of Ukrainian fighter bombers hitting my Russian mercenaries hard---which I have supplied to the Russian mercenaries---then WHY do I really care if I detect the radar signature of the launcher which is a tactical radar-- which when it is turned on is of short duration--this was a feature that makes this system hard to defeat---the signature is designed to defeat the HARM by not being available to be fixed and destroyed.

once the signature is detected there is little one can do at 3.5 mach.

so expert mirhond catch up on your Russian SAM systems.

even if the signature was seen the Russian AD guys would have been cheering on their ground launch crew as they to would have thought they were firing against a AN 26.

AmericanPride

07-21-2014, 05:31 PM

So, there is a possibility that US is flogging Ukraine to fight harder for a face sake? It's a new idea to me.. well, how much it is important "not to lose face" for the US political class?

That's a possibility. Both the Republican and Democratic Parties are relatively hawkish and U.S. negotiating practices are not exactly known for their give-and-take. In addition, there is a growing anxiety about America's future as well as its military strength, given the outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the engineered fiscal 'crisis'. I think there some long-term structural problems brewing in the U.S. political scene that are affecting U.S. ability to address problems like Ukraine.

Biggus

07-21-2014, 05:58 PM

Got it. But I find it very unlikely that Russian military would fire HARMs just in case, to prevent possible launches at civilian planes, especially if there is an order from the uppermost entities "do not preclude"

Perhaps you're right, perhaps a hard response is unlikely. I just have a hard time believing that Russia would do nothing about a TELAR going live not very far from the border. Especially given the number of flights originating from Russia passing through the area, and the availability of equipment suitable for jamming a Buk fire control radar.

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 07:48 PM

Perhaps you're right, perhaps a hard response is unlikely. I just have a hard time believing that Russia would do nothing about a TELAR going live not very far from the border. Especially given the number of flights originating from Russia passing through the area, and the availability of equipment suitable for jamming a Buk fire control radar.

biggus--go in and research the abilities of the SAM 6 guidance radar and lock on radars both combined in the launch vehicle as is the SAM 11--it is not that easy---in fact during the Cold War the SAM 6 and 8 defense rings were feared by the 15/16 pilots and there were estimates of high losses until SEAD could kick in knocking holes for pass through.

Again the Russians would have seen only an extremely short radar signature of the tactical radar and it tends to search, and lock on a target and then it is automatically fed to the missile and then the radar goes silent ago and the missile radar guidance picks up the mission to strike riding a multiple series of ever changing frequencies.

If you noticed the WH stated there are missile launch signatures and the trajectory was seen and tracked which then can be backward calculated to define the launch site down to a really narrow error margin---the Ukrainians are saying the same thing.

The SAM 11 was in tactical mode when it fired not the theater battery mode where radars are always on and sweeping.

Not sure if you have much experience with the Iron Dome of the latest versions of the Patriot---they do not have shoot and scoot capacity which has always been the Russian AD doctrinal theory----theater defense and AD on the move.

What is interesting is that in an interview actually carried two days ago on Russian One with residents in the area of the crash they claimed they heard two distinct explosions then they saw the plane in several large pieces coming down.

If one looks at the video release showing the white tractor trailer carrying the Buk---there were actually two missiles missing ---the middle two which surprised me when we slowed it down---as the reporting initially stated one was missing.

Again if I have supplied the Buk across the border I seriously doubt the Russian AD TOC was not informed it was across the border---at least the senior Russian TOC watch officer would have been informed by the GRU---there are no go it alone types within the Russian military especially with their theater AD.

Today's Russian Defense Ministry briefing depicting Ukrainian radar tracks is actually interesting for the single reason they have a really good AD software simulation system that produces such tracks for their AD exercises much as the US does.

BUT did the Russian Defense Ministry say a single word about recorded launch signatures which I know for a fact they would have seen--if they had not then they have a really massive gap in their AD technology which I seriously doubt. The question begs to be asked--why did they not report that data if they are accusing the Ukrainians. That would be the smoking gun--BUT no smoking gun.
Again their show was another diverting smoke screen trying to protect Putin and deflect the narrative.

One can depict anything anyone wants to depict and the look and feel is great and to the uninformed the data being presented is in fact "real".

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 08:03 PM

Oh, you can't "have no position", Qui non est nobiscum adversus nos est.
by Outlaw's logic you might be Putin's proxy or even an FSB agent, as well :)

ps. thanks a lot for a new signature.

come on non expert and certainly no missile expert mirhond---the Russian mercenaries lost another four towns today did they not and the Ukrainian Army entered several suburbs of Donetsk today did they not?

you are also certainly no Russian MRL expert as you could not even see the three different calibers and then you would have known there is no such MRL beast anywhere in the world that fires three different rockets at the same time---come on mirhond improve yourself.

thought for sure you would claim it was an Ukrainian BM 27--but you missed your opportunity did you not on that video mirhond

kaur

07-21-2014, 08:08 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 08:14 PM

Looks like a Times reporter who took photos at the crash has photographed potential shrapnel damage on a number of the pieces of the downed aircraft and then released them via twitter---consistent with that type of SAM hit. Photos were date time stamped and geo coordinated.

As I have previously mentioned to mirhond the Russian mercenaries have no earthly idea what on forensics remain behind especially on a shot down--they are desperately trying to move things and hide things but over 32 square kms?

http://www.focus.de/politik/videos/bilder-eines-reporters-beweis-fuer-abschuss-fotos-zeigen-schrapnell-loecher-durch-rakete_id_4005265.html

OUTLAW 09

07-21-2014, 08:47 PM

I watched the RF MoD press conference. Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartopolov managed to keep hard face till the end of his presentation and then he slipped in a hard way. At 27:00 he states that RF has not supplied to ополчение/separatists no BUK, no other weapons and no military machines. Lady translator was not precise in her translation. Even Gubarev's team admitted that they got weapons and ATGM systems from Russia, NATO wrote about tanks, we saw North Caucasus military district Grad MRL, in Girkin basement we saw MANPAD systems and ATGM systems. If we know all those facts, think about generals statemant, then how can we belive what he said before?

During the same conference the General tried to inject the Ukrainian SU 25 into the narrative as well as the US --and this is interesting he injected the statement that the US had satellites moving over the exact area of the crash so therefore the US MUST have something to do with the crash via their satellites.

BUT more interesting is the fact that through his admission he is virtually supporting the US statements they have launch signatures they captured via satellite.

Even the Russian Defense Ministry can no longer keep their stories straight.

Article is in German---Russian satellite comments second to last paragraph for mirhond.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/malaysia-airlines-mh17-russland-beschuldigt-ukrainischen-kampfjet-a-982184.html

kaur

07-21-2014, 10:04 PM

After studing little bit that MoD statement about SsangYoung banner, I did find out that first source was RIA Novosti, which published Victor Levanov's comment. Victor Levanov is pro Kremlin blogger and Фонда открытой новой демократии is heade by Kremlin youth movement Nashi former spokesperson Kristina Potupchik. Nashi movement was Kremlin spin doctor Vladislav Surkov's creature in fight against orange revolutions in former Soviet space. Now Surkov suppousedly coordinates RF policy towards Ukraine.

http://ria.ru/world/20140720/1016777974.html

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nashi_(youth_movement)

kaur

07-21-2014, 10:48 PM

Russia’s top 10 lies about downed Malaysia airliner.

http://www.examiner.com/list/russia-s-top-10-lies-about-downed-malaysia-airliner

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 06:20 AM

Biggus

07-22-2014, 08:42 AM

biggus--go in and research the abilities of the SAM 6 guidance radar and lock on radars both combined in the launch vehicle as is the SAM 11--it is not that easy---in fact during the Cold War the SAM 6 and 8 defense rings were feared by the 15/16 pilots and there were estimates of high losses until SEAD could kick in knocking holes for pass through.

Again the Russians would have seen only an extremely short radar signature of the tactical radar and it tends to search, and lock on a target and then it is automatically fed to the missile and then the radar goes silent ago and the missile radar guidance picks up the mission to strike riding a multiple series of ever changing frequencies.

If you noticed the WH stated there are missile launch signatures and the trajectory was seen and tracked which then can be backward calculated to define the launch site down to a really narrow error margin---the Ukrainians are saying the same thing.

The SAM 11 was in tactical mode when it fired not the theater battery mode where radars are always on and sweeping.

True about a very short period of time elapsing between tracking and launching, but there's the issue of searching for a target. It takes four seconds for a sweep of an area covering a six degree by 120 degree space. Given that it's improbable that they would have picked up a target in the first couple of sweeps, surely 10 or 15 seconds of a fire control radar actively searching would have been detected by someone, somewhere. I do not really know about optical sensors on the Buk, but if used I would assume several mid-course update transmissions.

Not sure if you have much experience with the Iron Dome of the latest versions of the Patriot---they do not have shoot and scoot capacity which has always been the Russian AD doctrinal theory----theater defense and AD on the move.

What is interesting is that in an interview actually carried two days ago on Russian One with residents in the area of the crash they claimed they heard two distinct explosions then they saw the plane in several large pieces coming down.

If one looks at the video release showing the white tractor trailer carrying the Buk---there were actually two missiles missing ---the middle two which surprised me when we slowed it down---as the reporting initially stated one was missing.
I admit to a lack of knowledge of Iron Dome.

Two missiles launched is certainly consistent with what I've read in regards to SAM site operations. It would also explain why I'm seeing shrapnel behind the cockpit and on the far outboard of a wing.

Again if I have supplied the Buk across the border I seriously doubt the Russian AD TOC was not informed it was across the border---at least the senior Russian TOC watch officer would have been informed by the GRU---there are no go it alone types within the Russian military especially with their theater AD.
I am not privy to any information surrounding how tightly integrated Russian military and civillian airspace management systems are. My current hypothesis is that one hand does not talk to the other. The alternative hypothesis would be too depressing to consider, assuming Russian awareness of a rebel-held Buk.

During the same conference the General tried to inject the Ukrainian SU 25 into the narrative as well as the US --and this is interesting he injected the statement that the US had satellites moving over the exact area of the crash so therefore the US MUST have something to do with the crash via their satellites.

Again with the Frogfoot. Continued reference to it does nothing for Russian credibility. A close air support aircraft that struggles to get to 24kft without any pylons or stores and has no radar. Let alone the idea that someone armed with P60s could mistake a 777 for anything but a civillian aircraft at even the maximum engagement range. Why would Ukraine employ such an aircraft for air defence when they've got actual air superiority aircraft?

JMA

07-22-2014, 09:10 AM

I try not to ever fall into the trap as explained in this quote:

If a man is offered a fact, which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something, which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way. – Bertrand Russell

That said as much as I would like to accept Russian culpability in this matter I do believe that we need to assure ourselves first that this was not a Ukrainian effort either unknowingly or deliberately.

Are there facts available that clear Ukraine from any possible involvement?

I watched the RF MoD press conference. Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartopolov managed to keep hard face till the end of his presentation and then he slipped in a hard way. At 27:00 he states that RF has not supplied to ополчение/separatists no BUK, no other weapons and no military machines. Lady translator was not precise in her translation. Even Gubarev's team admitted that they got weapons and ATGM systems from Russia, NATO wrote about tanks, we saw North Caucasus military district Grad MRL, in Girkin basement we saw MANPAD systems and ATGM systems. If we know all those facts, think about generals statemant, then how can we belive what he said before?

Ps that SsangYong banner with Krasnoarmeisk, Dnepropetrovskaja 34 address will not prove anything. Kranoarmeisk may be just closest city with SsangYong dealer.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 09:41 AM

True about a very short period of time elapsing between tracking and launching, but there's the issue of searching for a target. It takes four seconds for a sweep of an area covering a six degree by 120 degree space. Given that it's improbable that they would have picked up a target in the first couple of sweeps, surely 10 or 15 seconds of a fire control radar actively searching would have been detected by someone, somewhere. I do not really know about optical sensors on the Buk, but if used I would assume several mid-course update transmissions.

I admit to a lack of knowledge of Iron Dome.

Two missiles launched is certainly consistent with what I've read in regards to SAM site operations. It would also explain why I'm seeing shrapnel behind the cockpit and on the far outboard of a wing.

I am not privy to any information surrounding how tightly integrated Russian military and civillian airspace management systems are. My current hypothesis is that one hand does not talk to the other. The alternative hypothesis would be too depressing to consider, assuming Russian awareness of a rebel-held Buk.

Again with the Frogfoot. Continued reference to it does nothing for Russian credibility. A close air support aircraft that struggles to get to 24kft without any pylons or stores and has no radar. Let alone the idea that someone armed with P60s could mistake a 777 for anything but a civillian aircraft at even the maximum engagement range. Why would Ukraine employ such an aircraft for air defence when they've got actual air superiority aircraft?

biggus---the Russian argument which Russia is using to try to turn the narrative on it's head and away from Russian involvement concerning the SU 25 is that it fired again "assumed to have fired"---in propaganda one just has to thrown out a statement forcing the other side to look like 1) they are guilty and 2) it starts a new news cycle----

it was assumed to have fired--- is the alleged or it could have-- or it might have fired an air to air missile which packs a higher explosive to weigh ratio---BUT in the scramble to "create" a story they failed to realize the West knows a lot about the SAM 11 missile and the fragmentation of the debris clearly depicts an airburst missile class as is the SAM 11 group, and actually the explosive charge carried by the SAM 11 is quite large but again not unusual as it is long and has a great drive engine.

My link to the NYTs article is quite good---surprised that the Times is thorough and had a SAM specialist doing the analysis work.

So again so goes another "alleged" theory down in flames because the Russians cannot for some strange reason think that the West fact checks articles these days.

Between us I do think the journalist knew exactly what to look for and what to photograph as the photos depict single items not the whole field of items---as virtually seven different news agencies and news papers picked up the story together with the photos which hit hard back here in Europe.

Here is the interesting info war development--now most of their stories are grabbing news cycles in the west not longer than one rotation whereas before the downing often it would be 2-4 times with a variation or two showing up to take it into a 5th or 6th rotation.

Their information war machine is somewhat unhinged right now and trying to recover. In marketing they say it takes just one bad comment or unsatisfied customer to override 30 great customers and great online comments and kill the product.

Ulenspiegel

07-22-2014, 09:59 AM

biggus---the Russian argument which Russia is using to try to turn the narrative on it's head and away from Russian involvement concerning the SU 25 is that it fired again "assumed to have fired"---in propaganda one just has to thrown out a statement forcing the other side to look like 1) they are guilty and 2) it starts a new news cycle----

it was assumed to have fired--- is the alleged or it could have-- or it might have fired an air to air missile which packs a higher explosive to weigh ratio---BUT in the scramble to "create" a story they failed to realize the West knows a lot about the SAM 11 missile and the fragmentation of the debris clearly depicts an airburst missile class as is the SAM 11 group, and actually the explosive charge carried by the SAM 11 is quite large but again not unusual as it is long and has a great drive engine.

My link to the NYTs article is quite good---surprised that the Times is thorough and had a SAM specialist doing the analysis work.

So again so goes another "alleged" theory down in flames because the Russians cannot for some strange reason think that the West fact checks articles these days.

Between us I do think the journalist knew exactly what to look for and to photograph as the photos depict single items not the whole field of items.

Here is the interesting info war development--now of their stories are grabbing news cycles in the west longer than one rotation whereas before the downing often it would be 2-4 times with a variation or two showing up to take it into a 5th or 6th rotation.

At the moment I do not understand why Russia is performing such a low quality propaganda war.

From the quite good discussions on the German "Augen geradeaus" it was clear for two days now, that at least one SAM was used: The shrapnel patterns on the debris can not be explained by an air-to-air missile impact in combination with an explosion of one engine.

The SU-25 argument is from a physical POV complete nonsens. It does not really help when now the Russian Wikipedia entry for the SU-25 is changed. :-)

The working hypothesis on "Augen geradeaus" is, that with correct data on location, speed, height, and bearing of the plane at the time of the first impact and with known data of the BUK system a very good estimate in respect the location of the firing BUK system can be made (cyrcle with 1km diameter).

Is this believable?
What would the impact of a destoyed or emptied black box be?
How many seconds would be between first and second SAM, if two were used according to Russian SOP?

mirhond

07-22-2014, 10:06 AM

After studing little bit that MoD statement about SsangYoung banner, I did find out that first source was RIA Novosti, which published Victor Levanov's comment. Victor Levanov is pro Kremlin blogger and Фонда открытой новой демократии is heade by Kremlin youth movement Nashi former spokesperson Kristina Potupchik.

So, if Levanov says "The sky is blue" and "Two plus two equals four" you automatically reject these two statemetts as false?
If yes, you may have hard times with reality :D

My current hypothesis is that one hand does not talk to the other.

You may be 90% sure that it's true.

kaur

07-22-2014, 12:54 PM

Biggus

07-22-2014, 01:16 PM

Are there facts available that clear Ukraine from any possible involvement?

Not so far as I am aware. They're responsible for not closing down the contested airspace when they lost a Buk system. This alone should carry some significant form of consternation.

What is telling, though, is the appallingly ludicrous narrative Russia is running with against Ukraine. I suspect knowing that two E-3 AWACS birds being present and watching at the time is probably causing them some grief in coming up with a more plausible infowar strategy.

You may be 90% sure that it's true.

I am more than 90% sure, but it isn't something I know for sure and I'll make no further assumptions. Either could be the case.

JMA

07-22-2014, 02:16 PM

Got another one here...

AP... please take a deep breath, you are sounding shrill.

As Outlaw said full sectoral sanctions would have probably done the trick, but coupled with a continuing fear of all things Russian and a lack of leverage over the Germans the US is left standing alone like a little boy with a runny nose and wet pants.

Not every situation must have a military solution. I would have thought that was obvious.

So I am left trying to understand what made you freak out over a few things said in this thread.

I know that the US liberal left are running interferance for the Administration trying to justify the inaction. Are you one of them? Perhaps placing loyalty toan Administration above the long term best interests of the US? Please tell me if I am reading this correctly.

Originally Posted by JMA
Had the US and EU acted decisively and firmly this would not have happened.

In what ways could the U.S. have 'acted decisively'? In the way that Russia acted decisively in seizing Crimea and sponsoring the separatists? There is a continuum of commitment levels - first, U.S. soft power intervention in Ukraine's internal unrest, followed by a lightning strike of Russian hard power combined with sponsoring militants and providing political cover, to be followed by what U.S. escalation of commitment? Outlaw suggested providing arms and advisers. What happens when a U.S. adviser is killed by a separatists, or worst, killed by a Russian direct action team? What if it was a U.S. recce aircraft that was shot down instead of a civilian airliner? At that point, the U.S. would have no options but to further escalate its commitment less it risk destroying its credibility. Is that the kind of route we want to take with Russia? The problem is that Russia got in first and beat us to the punch. Further commitments by the U.S. means escalating the conflict, and that means directly confronting Russia. I don't think that's politically feasible for America's own internal politics.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 02:50 PM

At the moment I do not understand why Russia is performing such a low quality propaganda war.

From the quite good discussions on the German "Augen geradeaus" it was clear for two days now, that at least one SAM was used: The shrapnel patterns on the debris can not be explained by an air-to-air missile impact in combination with an explosion of one engine.

The SU-25 argument is from a physical POV complete nonsens. It does not really help when now the Russian Wikipedia entry for the SU-25 is changed. :-)

The working hypothesis on "Augen geradeaus" is, that with correct data on location, speed, height, and bearing of the plane at the time of the first impact and with known data of the BUK system a very good estimate in respect the location of the firing BUK system can be made (cyrcle with 1km diameter).

Is this believable?
What would the impact of a destoyed or emptied black box be?
How many seconds would be between first and second SAM, if two were used according to Russian SOP?

Ullenspiegel---interesting questions and observations.

1. I myself first thought one missile and it initially appeared that in fact it was one and after really slowing down the video to frame by frame in fact two were missing---now three could have been the basic load thus one fired leaves two but normally the missiles are fired in parallel to each other ie both the out board and then the middle two or vice versa (or one and three or two and four) in order to maintain the balance of the vehicle to maintain a stable firing platform.

But then the field interview of the locals indicated two distinct explosions one after the other before the plane broke up.

2. an air to air missile is largely pointed to the engines and is usually a physical hit if possible---but the size of the 777 engine coming apart at that speed and under duress would have covered the plane with shredding type of shrapnel meaning mid to long running gashes in the skin of the aircraft resulting from the various turbine fan blades coming apart on the different compression wheels--not punctures resembling multi caliber AAA fire hitting an aircraft---and if you looked at the NYTs photos the shrapnel was in a shotgun pattern (almost sprayed like with discoloration on some which is the heat from the shrapnel) which reflects an airburst---the SAM 11 has a heavy explosive payload (around 60/70 kilos) in order to create a large shotgun effect in the hopes of hitting a fast moving fighter or attack fighter that has the speed engine in overdrive as he would have heard the missile alarms go off in the cockpit as he attempted to evade the missile

3. the flight recorders were actually from the destruction of the plane in relatively great condition and the critical words were given by the Malaysian inspector---they had not been tampered with.

Below is an Interfax release from today by the Russian defense Ministry where they are desperately trying to hold onto the SU 25 or Ukrainian theories.

Yesterday their AF General blew it when he admitted openly the US had one or more overhead capabilities sitting in place for the entire period.

Go down into the press release and notice the wording that again they admit to the Us having infra red capabilities overhead at the time of the crash.

Now what they General is sadly missing is the depth of the US missile launch detection and exactly how the US tracks missiles in flight which they are petty darn good at if one has ever been in a Patriot TOC during exercises.

Read the sentence where the General is saying if they US has something then put it on the table---notice the silence out of the US---they are almost ignoring the Russian comments.

Assumption is that yes the US has the launch data with 10 digits, has the trajectory data down to the mm's and is simply waiting to the right time.

Why is the General so impatient---they need the US info in order to conduct a counter narrative--and they are not getting it so there are way out on a limb with no net. They claim they will pass on their data from yesterday's briefing --IMO they will not until they fully understand just what the US has as the joker in this poker game of superpower chicken. this is the third time in two days the Russians are asking for it---Obama has already replied ---yes we have confirmed launch location and flight data.

They really do not understand fully our ISR abilities which when you spoke to any number of Russian officers in the last two years---they always speak highly of the US UAV and overhead ISR.

Interfax press release from today:

Only infrared spy satellite able to see Malaysian Boeing crash - expert

MOSCOW. July 22 (Interfax-AVN) - Only an infrared reconnaissance satellite can help clarify the circumstances under which the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 crashed in Ukraine. A regular remote sensing satellite will be useless, a source in the Russian space surveillance system told Interfax-AVN.

"Remote sensing satellites, dozens of which have been deployed in space, are mostly tasked to film the earth's surface, infrastructure and slow moving objects. They are not equipped to film rapidly moving objects, especially if these objects are maneuvering," the source said on the condition of anonymity.

"Images of southeastern Ukraine might have been taken on that day on the orders from a commercial or state company but it is practically unrealistic that every filming condition was synchronized and the images depicted the Malaysian Boeing at the crash moment," he said.

Infrared satellites are different, the expert noted. The Russian Defense Ministry spoke yesterday about such U.S. satellites, which were above Ukraine at the crash moment.

"The satellite might have detected in the infrared band the launch of a surface-to-air missile, same as the flight of a Ukrainian assault aircraft near the Boeing and the launch of an air-to-air missile. However, the U.S. side has not presented the satellite data to the general public," the expert said.

Regular remote sensing means operating in the optical band are practically incapable of detecting the flight of a commercial jetliner, its being accompanied by an assault jet, and the launch of an air-to-air missile or a surface-to-air missile, he continued.

"True, satellites operating in the optical band may accidentally discover a plane flying above a concrete territory but chances that all the pieces will fall into place are one to a thousand or even a million. Images can be taken in the cloudless skies, and it was cloudy in southeastern Ukraine on the day of the crash; besides, the satellite must be tasked to film a concrete area, and the filming is done only from a certain angle and over a certain space. Besides, the satellite is not hovering above the required spot but passes it one or several times a day depending on its orbit," the source in the Russian space surveillance system said.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 02:57 PM

Not so far as I am aware. They're responsible for not closing down the contested airspace when they lost a Buk system. This alone should carry some significant form of consternation.

What is telling, though, is the appallingly ludicrous narrative Russia is running with against Ukraine. I suspect knowing that two E-3 AWACS birds being present and watching at the time is probably causing them some grief in coming up with a more plausible infowar strategy.

I am more than 90% sure, but it isn't something I know for sure and I'll make no further assumptions. Either could be the case.

Biggus----there is a fear of the combination of the AWACs which has GMTI abilities as well as the overhead abilities that the Russians referred to today in their Interfax press release.

They do understand the use of the combination of the two on top of the voice intercepts which the Ukrainians released which the US confirmed which allowed them keep the NSA nicely out of the picture which was nice move--from a classification level.

They are desperately trying to get the US to release their data before they send anything to the UN Air Crash Team handling the investigation now in order to not look stupid and looking like it fact it was their Buk.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 03:14 PM

Even the Russian UN Ambassador is spinning the narrative as fast as he can these days--man it must be hard to maintain a log on the series of stories one is to spin and not get lost which it appears they have been for the last 72 hours.

Taken from the UNSC statements by the Russian Ambassador even after one of the voice intercept participants admitted it was his voice and the US confirmed the recordings and the Buk photos and videos were in fact geo located which the Ambassador seems to have not gotten the message on yet from Moscow.

The "controversial recording" of radio communications purportedly proving that Russian-backed separatists accidentally shot down the plane and then tried to cover it up were recorded before the aircraft was downed, he claimed. A video released by the Ukrainian government purporting to show Russian-made surface-to-air rockets on Ukrainian territory were actually taken in Russia, he said. Finally, he claimed that a sophisticated Ukrainian government Buk missile system was in an area controlled by the rebels before the plane's downing, and then "hastily removed" after the tragedy.

AmericanPride

07-22-2014, 03:57 PM

Got another one here...

AP... please take a deep breath, you are sounding shrill.

:confused:

As Outlaw said full sectoral sanctions would have probably done the trick, but coupled with a continuing fear of all things Russian and a lack of leverage over the Germans the US is left standing alone like a little boy with a runny nose and wet pants.

How would "full sectoral scantions" have "done the trick" when they are not politically feasible in the U.S. or Europe? Have you found much success in making unrealistic recommendations?

Not every situation must have a military solution.

I'm not the one making military recommendations. Adjust your fire elsewhere.

I know that the US liberal left are running interferance for the Administration trying to justify the inaction. Are you one of them? Perhaps placing loyalty toan Administration above the long term best interests of the US? Please tell me if I am reading this correctly.

I'm not interested in analyzing foreign policy through the narrow lense of Outlaw's moral principles. You could be more effective in attempt at character assassination if you just came out and said what you were really thinking instead of making passive-aggressive comments. Just a suggestion. Honesty is really the best policy here.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 05:34 PM

:confused:

How would "full sectoral scantions" have "done the trick" when they are not politically feasible in the U.S. or Europe? Have you found much success in making unrealistic recommendations?

I'm not the one making military recommendations. Adjust your fire elsewhere.

I'm not interested in analyzing foreign policy through the narrow lense of Outlaw's moral principles. You could be more effective in attempt at character assassination if you just came out and said what you were really thinking instead of making passive-aggressive comments. Just a suggestion. Honesty is really the best policy here.

JMA---one this one I tend to go with AP for the following reason---yes economically right now we can sit back and say nothing is working and or little if anything is working from the first series of sanctions and virtually little to nothing from the EU side.

BUT and it is a big BUT---the last US sanctions hit hard--the VEB is the main bank for virtually all Russian major companies---the counter threat finance guys got it right with VEB---it is the lynch pin.

If you saw my reference to the two Interfax releases yesterday the Russian government is hard at work trying to figure out how to get money to it as it owes outstanding debt payments of 34B USDs in the next two years---14B in the next six months and the remaining 24B in early 2015.

Guess what they do not have that kind of money laying around---the entire Russian economy has been built on a legal Ponzi scheme meaning they had been getting money they need on short terms as the bank percentage points right now are really cheap.

If on fact the reporting is correct the EU is getting ready to cut Russia off fom European bank lines of credit---something I said should have been done in the first days of the Crimea.

Then in the last two days we see a major critique article all unnamed from the Russian oligarchs complaining Putin is driving the economy literally into the ditch and the costs of the ditch have yet to be felt but will be felt by the Russian population in the coming months if the sanctions get harder and then the Russian economy if they come might not be back to normal for the next 7-10 years.

Then this about Russian lawmakers wanting the rich to help pay for the Crimea---I have posted somewhere in this thread an Interfax article indicating the Russian government could not pass an actual Crimea budget until 2022---meaning they were attempting to pay for the Crimea out of pocket and the pockets were not deep at all until 2022---and the current food prices have claimed over 120% in the Crimea since the take over.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/22/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-tax-idUSKBN0FR1SB20140722

Putin is not understanding that Russia is really a two raw resource nation and you must constantly sell raw resources if you finance your core economy---and the lynch pin are the lines of credit and bank loans---notice Russia has not completed a single national debt offer for the last five months as they would have to buy to much in interest-far above the norm currently.

What worries me currently is that there is a new German article from the SDZ that makes the comment that they believe based on Putin's actions before and now during the plane crash that he is no longer mentally tied to reality as he has built in his head and in the heads of the Russians via propaganda a alternated state of reality meaning what is black to us is definitely red to him and the Russian population.

Meaning he set the wheels in motion using ethnicity in eastern Ukraine, he has supported verbally the Russian volunteers, he is providing them heavy weapons and the Buk, calls go to Moscow and many of the Russian volunteers are and were former FSB types--meaning there is in fact no difference between the separatists and Moscow yet Putin sees it differently nor would he agree with the comments.

So will further sanctions even enter his thinking even if he fully understands that his economy is tanking completely around him.

Secondly there are some serious indictors that Putin was ready to turn loose his military to cross over the border claiming he had to defend the poor civilians being killed by the fascists in Kiev between the period 17-19 July--and if you noticed the actual attacks from Russian soil into Ukraine spiked greatly during that period---then came the crash and Putin's military crossing got crashed as well.

He though still has not given up on the "federation" of eastern Ukraine as a way to stop the Ukraine and to control the Ukraine.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/mh17-malaysia-airlines-putins-wirklichkeitsverlust-a-982325.html

Was die Verantwortung Russlands angeht, hat Stefan Kornelius in der "Sddeutschen Zeitung" heute alles gesagt: "Die Separatisten sind von der russischen Regierung nicht zu trennen. Ihre Kommandeure sind im russischen Sicherheitsmilieu verwurzelt, ihre Waffen stammen aus russischen Arsenalen, ihre Telefonate gehen nach Russland, die Raketenwerfer vom Typ SA-11 fahren dorthin zurck." Die entscheidende Frage ist, ob Putin diese Realitt anerkennt und rational agiert - oder ob er lngst in einer anderen Realitt gefangen ist.

Wenn wir Pech haben, mssen wir Hilfe in der klinischen Psychologie suchen statt in der Diplomatie. Dem in seinem Wahn verstrickten Menschen verordnet der Arzt Medikamente, um ihm in die Wirklichkeit zurckzuhelfen. Aber wie befreit man einen Staat von seinen Zwangsideen?

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 06:43 PM

Weather.

Biggus----flight direction was changed shortly before the shot down due to the pilot having received permission from Ukrainian ATC for a "direct routing".

Confirmed by an India 777 25 kms behind him.

http://www.focus.de/panorama/videos/dreamliner-hoerte-direct-routing-erlaubnis-mit-nach-diesem-funkspruch-flog-der-mh17-pilot-durch-das-abschussgebiet_id_4009212.html

So did the Russian radar track indicate a SU 25 or the Indian 777 trailing the MH17 flight? Because the Russian AF general indicated no other aircraft trailing MH17?

Kurz vor dem Abschuss des Malaysia Airline Fluges MH17 versuchte ein indischer Dreamliner, Kontakt zum Unglcksflieger aufzunehmen. Doch die einzige Information, die die Air-India-Maschine noch vernehmen konnte, sollte den Passagieren von Flug MH17 zum Verhngnis werden.

Kurz vor dem Abschuss der Malaysia Airlines Maschine, soll ein Dreamliner der Air India versucht haben, Kontakt zum Flug MH17 aufzunehmen. Denn die indische Maschine befand sich zum Zeitpunkt des Unglcks nur 25 Kilometer vom Unglcksflieger entfernt. Das geht aus einem Bericht der Times of India hervor.

Darin heit es, dass ein ukrainischer Fluglotse den Piloten des Dreamliners um eine Kontaktaufnahme bat. Denn das Flugzeug war zu diesem Zeitpunkt bereits vom Radar verschwunden doch auch die indischen Piloten konnten keinen Kontakt aufnehmen.

Dem Bericht zufolge sollen die Piloten der Air-India-Maschine jedoch Minuten vor dem Abschuss gehrt haben, wie der MH17-Crew die Erlaubnis fr ein so genanntes direct routing erteilt wurde. Das bedeutet, dass der Flieger seine geplante Route umgehen und einen direkten Weg ber ein bestimmtes Gebiet whlen durfte.

Nach Angaben eines Air-India-Mitarbeiters spart eine solche Routennderung Zeit und Geld, weshalb sie bei Piloten besonders beliebt sei. In diesem Fall kostete diese Entscheidung jedoch offenbar 298 Menschenleben.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 06:50 PM

comrade not so really informed mirhond---looks like Putin and the Russian Cossak "zealous Christian mercenaries" did not hold to the burial ritual you claimed they hold to correct did they? Probably since they were to busy looting credit cads, jewelry and Smart phones from the dead they so respected.

by the way those 36 bodies the Cossacks took which you said headed to Donetsk never seem to make it did they mirhond?

So there are still 98 bodies on the ground at the crash site right mirhond?

They claimed to the world that they had collected 282 bodies from the crash site but guess what there were only 200 on the trained confirmed by the Dutch, Germans and Interpol.

you have to really get better at this comrade mirhond----

it is in german mirhond---they tend to report accurately or at least better than Russia Today.

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/newsticker-zum-flug-mh17-der-malaysia-airlines-alle-298-opfer-sollen-in-den-niederlanden-identifiziert-werden_id_4008709.html

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 07:09 PM

US releases unclassified missile trajectory flight and it is not from an Ukrainian Buk---let's see how mirhond spins this one as well as Putin and the Russian AF General.

Ukrainian SSU has released a voice intercept of a Russian officer who fired the missile and his cell call back to a Russian officer in Moscow informing him that an aircraft had been acquired--waiting to see if the Ukrainians release it this evening.

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/newsticker-zum-flug-mh17-der-malaysia-airlines-alle-298-opfer-sollen-in-den-niederlanden-identifiziert-werden_id_4008709.html

Biggus---here is a link to the German site Focus---half way down is a tweet with the missile trajectory indicating as you had previously mentioned the missile came directly head on against the planes' flight path---that would explain the shrapnel in the cockpit area of the debris. It would have detonated lower and in front of the plane spraying the front of the plane, some of the sides and bottom of the aircraft--engines would have been hit a well causing secondary shrapnel. Frontal hit was even from a Russian mercenary himself who reported on his twitter account a lot of blood in the cockpit area which would indicated the pilots took a full hit from the shrapnel.

Missile is also fired from a location where no Ukrainian military unit is located meaning no Ukrainian Buk systems--so it will be interesting on how the Russian AF General, and Putin spins this.

Will be more interesting to see how the EU takes this.

JMA

07-22-2014, 08:07 PM

It seems as if it is getting more difficult for the US to justify having sat on its hands from the get go in Crimea. The Germans will be focussing on their World Cup victory so as to attempt to take away the world's and their nation's notice away from their foreign policy cowardice in this regard. We live in interesting times.

US releases unclassified missile trajectory flight and it is not from an Ukrainian Buk---let's see how mirhond spins this one as well as Putin and the Russian AF General.

Ukrainian SSU has released a voice intercept of a Russian officer who fired the missile and his cell call back to a Russian officer in Moscow informing him that an aircraft had been acquired--waiting to see if the Ukrainians release it this evening.

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/newsticker-zum-flug-mh17-der-malaysia-airlines-alle-298-opfer-sollen-in-den-niederlanden-identifiziert-werden_id_4008709.html

Biggus---here is a link to the German site Focus---half way down is a tweet with the missile trajectory indicating as you had previously mentioned the missile came directly head on against the planes' flight path---that would explain the shrapnel in the cockpit area of the debris. It would have detonated lower and in front of the plane spraying the front of the plane, some of the sides and bottom of the aircraft--engines would have been hit a well causing secondary shrapnel. Frontal hit was even from a Russian mercenary himself who reported on his twitter account a lot of blood in the cockpit area which would indicated the pilots took a full hit from the shrapnel.

Missile is also fired from a location where no Ukrainian military unit is located meaning no Ukrainian Buk systems--so it will be interesting on how the Russian AF General, and Putin spins this.

Will be more interesting to see how the EU takes this.

OUTLAW 09

07-22-2014, 08:09 PM

kaur

07-22-2014, 09:06 PM

RF MoD briefing managed to lead me to wrong tracks.

Briefing showed behind BUK trailer Krasnoarmeisk address, Dnepropetrovskaja street 34.

http://gorod.tomsk.ru/posts-files/82/650/i/9(1).png

I used MoD presented fact and found out that at Dnepropetrovskaja 34 is located SsangYong dealer "Донецкая Автомобильная Компания". I said this also in this forum. Sorry.

Today I know, that on the banner is written автосалон (autodealer) "Богдан", which has shops in Donetsk and Mariupol. If you look at the region's map, no wonder that between Russian border and Donetsk, there are banners inviting to visit Donetsk shop. MoD just pasted wrong address to slide to mislead audience. How on earth they managed to zoom this video :)

http://avtosale.ua/avtosalon/Bogdan_avto_doneck-711/

Compare the Bogdan logo and logo at the MoD banner.

This blogger tracks down the BUK video to city Lugansk.

http://teh-nomad.livejournal.com/2080954.html

Just another lie by both MoD and that Nashi/Kremlin/ Potuptchik subordinate.

Biggus

07-23-2014, 06:03 AM

Biggus----flight direction was changed shortly before the shot down due to the pilot having received permission from Ukrainian ATC for a "direct routing".

Confirmed by an India 777 25 kms behind him.

http://www.focus.de/panorama/videos/dreamliner-hoerte-direct-routing-erlaubnis-mit-nach-diesem-funkspruch-flog-der-mh17-pilot-durch-das-abschussgebiet_id_4009212.html

So did the Russian radar track indicate a SU 25 or the Indian 777 trailing the MH17 flight? Because the Russian AF general indicated no other aircraft trailing MH17?
That is a good question. My suspicion that a Frogfoot was nearby is based entirely on the Russian narrative - why claim a Frogfoot is present if you could say it was a Flanker? Only logical answer is that there's evidence to suggest it.

There's also another question to ask: Which particular radar track? A fire control radar might not see a contact 25km away. A surveillance radar would (you would hope) detect a 777, although it may not classify it as non-threatening.

Biggus---here is a link to the German site Focus---half way down is a tweet with the missile trajectory indicating as you had previously mentioned the missile came directly head on against the planes' flight path---that would explain the shrapnel in the cockpit area of the debris. It would have detonated lower and in front of the plane spraying the front of the plane, some of the sides and bottom of the aircraft--engines would have been hit a well causing secondary shrapnel. Frontal hit was even from a Russian mercenary himself who reported on his twitter account a lot of blood in the cockpit area which would indicated the pilots took a full hit from the shrapnel.

Missile is also fired from a location where no Ukrainian military unit is located meaning no Ukrainian Buk systems--so it will be interesting on how the Russian AF General, and Putin spins this.

Will be more interesting to see how the EU takes this.

I have seen a track of one missile, is there a track available of the second? The flightpath is much more direct that I'd have expected, but I haven't looked closely at too many cases of non-maneuvering targets.

A question: Does the "Spanish ATC operator" exist? Are there any interviews of him/her?

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 06:31 AM

That is a good question. My suspicion that a Frogfoot was nearby is based entirely on the Russian narrative - why claim a Frogfoot is present if you could say it was a Flanker? Only logical answer is that there's evidence to suggest it.

There's also another question to ask: Which particular radar track? A fire control radar might not see a contact 25km away. A surveillance radar would (you would hope) detect a 777, although it may not classify it as non-threatening.

I have seen a track of one missile, is there a track available of the second? The flightpath is much more direct that I'd have expected, but I haven't looked closely at too many cases of non-maneuvering targets.

A question: Does the "Spanish ATC operator" exist? Are there any interviews of him/her?

Biggus--so are we seeing a gap in capabilities that was not previously known about the 11---meaning the onboard tactical radar has a much shorter acquisition range distance as anticipated when it is on it's own so to speak and it seems to not be able to discern targets other than it is a threat target--which would make sense if the SAM is accompanying a moving column of armor on the move in say enemy territory were it is assumed everything flying above it is an enemy aircraft ---am betting it picks up Russian IFF signals and everything else if simply enemy.

Normally civilian flights follow each other in trail formation and either a tad higher or lower depending on how the ATC stacks them so I am "surprised the Russian AD TOC seemed to not have "seen" the trailing 777 which reflects badly on their AD oversight of their neighbors and is another massive gap.

I am surprised there was no mention of a second missile ---although if there was an overhead viewer it would have detected the launch flash unless the heat flare of the first covers the immediate launch of the second one---if a second one suspect it was riding just mere seconds behind the first and a tad lower and beneath if it was fired so that overhead might have seen only one track.

Or my first assumption the launch vehicle had only three onboard when it fired.

The SU could have been launched as a ground support mission and had nothing to do with the much much higher aircraft since it was on a ground support mission based on the heavy ongoing fighting and their heavy use currently and it might have gone higher due to MANPAD threats which were real and the Ukrainians are almost out of flares so maybe he was just riding the larger aircrafts signature.

Although the Ukrainians are claiming no aircraft at all in the air so is this merely a narrative changer to get everyone looking at the Ukrainians?

Assume the path was more direct due to the firing angle being shorter due to the closeness of the launch vehicle-again a potential indicator that the onboard radar has a short acquisition and lock on distane than widely assumed.-if further away would assume a more of an arch.

Have not seen the interview anywhere.

Ulenspiegel

07-23-2014, 07:50 AM

Outlaw,

as I understood the discussion, the S-11 has usually no secondary radar, therefore, the crew has no chance to identify civilian aircrafts by electronic means when operating stand alone.

The radar of the S-11 has a range of about 30 km, an aircraft with >800 km/h travels around 14 km/min, hence, the aircraft would be directly above the launcher in 2 minutes, after around 4 minutes it would be out of range again.

How long does it take to make a quite solid decision to launch the missile? What is the likelyhood that a military target has some kind of HRAM (= stress for the crew)? The S-11 is IIRC no fire and forget system, the crew has to operate the radar during the 15 seconds the missile is in the air.

Biggus

07-23-2014, 09:34 AM

Biggus--so are we seeing a gap in capabilities that was not previously known about the 11---meaning the onboard tactical radar has a much shorter acquisition range distance as anticipated when it is on it's own so to speak and it seems to not be able to discern targets other than it is a threat target--which would make sense if the SAM is accompanying a moving column of armor on the move in say enemy territory were it is assumed everything flying above it is an enemy aircraft ---am betting it picks up Russian IFF signals and everything else if simply enemy.
I don't know that I'm brave enough to say that the fire control radar is necessarily shorter-ranged, but it certainly sees only a much smaller patch of sky. Imagine that the surveillance radar it would normally be paired with in a complete unit is like a person who can panoramically view the area, while a fire control radar is more like a person who can only view the area through a cardboard tube. The person with the panoramic view would tell the person with the tube where to aim in order to see the contact. I would assume that in a Buk battalion, the surveillance radar might also be capable of tracking, in which case it would be possible to hand off data to a launcher at a different geographical location without the launcher ever needing to establish a lock.

I don't know that it's a newly discovered flaw, and we don't really know what other means the shooter was using to watch the airspace.

You are entirely correct about the IFF system. If a contact does not have Russian IFF, then it's "enemy". Even if that contact has a squawking transponder.

Normally civilian flights follow each other in trail formation and either a tad higher or lower depending on how the ATC stacks them so I am "surprised the Russian AD TOC seemed to not have "seen" the trailing 777 which reflects badly on their AD oversight of their neighbors and is another massive gap.

Not simply a little lower, there are active civillian airports not too far away, so there would be a number of aircraft climbing from low altitude normally in the airspace. That is, apart from on the Russian side where the prior NOTAM forbid flight below 26kft and then later 32kft.

As I was speculating earlier, I question how closely tied in Russia's civillian and military airspace control is. I do have a very hard time believing that anyone watching a surveillance radar would not see a 777 emitting normal transponder codes, though.

I am surprised there was no mention of a second missile ---although if there was an overhead viewer it would have detected the launch flash unless the heat flare of the first covers the immediate launch of the second one---if a second one suspect it was riding just mere seconds behind the first and a tad lower and beneath if it was fired so that overhead might have seen only one track.

Or my first assumption the launch vehicle had only three onboard when it fired.

If the system has seen single Buk launches before, it would be sophisticated to detect two different heat blooms. I would also not assume that they'd follow the same track. Normally, these missiles will climb up to a great distance above their target. This would put the missile into a position where it only needed a minimal amount of energy for maneuvering, for instance if the aircraft dramatically turned 180 degrees from the launch.

I would still have expected two missiles, though. A single launch means a dramatically lower kill probability under normal circumstances.

The SU could have been launched as a ground support mission and had nothing to do with the much much higher aircraft since it was on a ground support mission based on the heavy ongoing fighting and their heavy use currently and it might have gone higher due to MANPAD threats which were real and the Ukrainians are almost out of flares so maybe he was just riding the larger aircrafts signature.

Although the Ukrainians are claiming no aircraft at all in the air so is this merely a narrative changer to get everyone looking at the Ukrainians?

I would assume if a Frogfoot was in the area, it would be far more concerned with doing what it is designed to do, ie kill stuff on the ground. I do note that when MANPADS are in an area in numbers, current US employment of A-10s is to engage from greater altitude. I'd wager that Ukrainian Frogfoot employment favours a higher altitude, or at least did until a Buk became active.

My thoughts are that it's unrelated to the shootdown, but I don't know that I necessarily believe that it wasn't present.

Have not seen the interview anywhere.

I find this somewhat interesting. Not that you haven't seen one, but that one doesn't seem to exist.

Outlaw,

as I understood the discussion, the S-11 has usually no secondary radar, therefore, the crew has no chance to identify civilian aircrafts by electronic means when operating stand alone.

The radar of the S-11 has a range of about 30 km, an aircraft with >800 km/h travels around 14 km/min, hence, the aircraft would be directly above the launcher in 2 minutes, after around 4 minutes it would be out of range again.

How long does it take to make a quite solid decision to launch the missile? What is the likelyhood that a military target has some kind of HRAM (= stress for the crew)? The S-11 is IIRC no fire and forget system, the crew has to operate the radar during the 15 seconds the missile is in the air.

I'm not Outlaw, but I'll add my understanding.
A crew operating independently in a TELAR can check quite easily for the presence of civillian traffic, provided they have an internet connection. I'm going to assume that it is possible to use the internet in Donetsk simply because of the use of social media. So, all a conscientous person would need to do is to look at FlightAware or one of the other live flight tracking apps.

Time from locking on to launching is very short. The data I've looked at says 15-18 seconds. But, there is a period of several minutes prior to this in order to prepare the missile. Crew involvement with the mid-course updates is minimal, if any. Nearly everything is automated.

A normal Buk system (ie, a full complex of surveillance radar etc) is actually capable of shooting down HARM-type missiles. It's not perfect for the Buk M1s, but for later variants there is a very high chance that they'd intercept it before it hit a radar. If a solo TELAR crew thought they were going to be attacked, they'd turn the radar off and move the vehicle.

kaur

07-23-2014, 09:56 AM

Biggus.

A question: Does the "Spanish ATC operator" exist? Are there any interviews of him/her?

2. The mysterious Spanish airport controller source. A mysterious Twitter account, @spainbuca, purporting to be a Spanish air traffic controller at Kiev's international airport named Carlos tweeted out that two Ukrainian fighter jets had shadowed the Malaysian airliner and that Kiev was behind its downing. In May, the Spanish-language channel of Kremlin mouthpiece RT interviewed Carlos and blurred out his face because he claimed he was in danger for criticizing the Ukrainian.

However, the Spanish Embassy in Kiev has no record of Carlos, reports Fox News Latino. “We have no knowledge of ‘Carlos’ having been in Ukraine. There is no record of his passing through the Consulate, and no one from the (relatively small) Spanish colony knows him,” it said. Carlos’s Twitter account no longer exists.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0722/What-really-happened-to-MH17-Russia-s-media-have-the-answer-video

This blogger did follow @spainbuca, until that accoutn was closed. Blogger took some screenshots. This blogger claims that according to Ukraine law air traffic controller must be Ukrainian citizen. This professional must know English. @spainbuca isn't citizen and can't speak English. Suspicious.

http://tyler78.livejournal.com/224873.html

Biggus

07-23-2014, 10:18 AM

Suspicious.

Very. One might wonder who they thought they were fooling.

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 10:56 AM

Biggus/kaur---we got a big round of applaus yesterday from the Russian National Security Council---well maybe not SWJ but at least mirhond

Ivesitia reported the RNSC meeting had two parts 1) the known Putin speech threatening the West and 2) the classified piece where an "insider reported" that they discussed at length the "total failure" of their current information war ie propaganda and the term propaganda was used. meaning the western and global media was not buying the Russian explanations and stories regardless of what was being put out.

In their analysis of the sudden "information warfare failure" they placed the blame on "bloggers and social media" and are trying to figure out how to sideline them in the coming days.

Interesting as I had immediately seen the massive stumble starting exactly with the downing narrative---and those "zealous Christians with their rituals" did not help matters at all.

At one point they were up to 14 different reasons/stories/fakes all competing for news cycles against the simple story of 298 dead bodies.

Looks like even DoS agrees that the Russian Defense Ministries presentation of the downing is in fact "sheer" propaganda.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/us-state-department-russian-ministrys-report-about-malaysian-plane-crash-sheer-propaganda-357499.html

kaur

07-23-2014, 11:07 AM

It seems that mirhond's unit is doing push ups and running in gas masks. Temperature in Moscow is 25 C and generals are angry, because can't go to datcha and wives are sitting on their necks. At the same time most of Russia is on vacation. This makes situation very bad for mirhond's unit. He'll be very angry, when he returns to SWJ. Be aware :D

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 11:16 AM

It seems that mirhond's unit is doing push ups and running in gas masks. He'll be very angry, when he returns to SWJ :D

kaur---this is a good example of why their propaganda has failed---mirhond and company do not fully understand the concept of marketing and propaganda to be good is much like marketing a bad product---but in marketing the message has to be close to the truth or the word of mouth will kill it.

This is where mirhond and company missed everything---the social media picked up the "actions of the "drunken" zealous types on the crash scene, they picked up on the massive disrespect in they way they treated the bodies---they forgot things like common decency still pulls at the hearts of many in this world of ours and they simply forgot that looting and plundering of dead bodies for their credit cards and Smart phones is not a really good winner of the hearts and minds of the world and they basically forgot that the mercenaries love hearing their voices and seeing themselves in social media.

And they forgot that interviews with the locals who were extremely shocked at having bodies drop in their yards and their natural farmer mind sets of what is right and wrong would come in interviews even in Russian media made.

Cannot find the link again---it was an article on how the Separatists ar now using the downing to get more support in their fight against the Ukrainian Army.

Even in their stronghold, the separatists' mishandling of the crash scene has alienated some Donbass residents. Retired schoolteacher Vera Papchenka said the victims' remains deserved better treatment.

"We want a fair investigation of this tragedy — there was a body of a child here," she said, grieving at the scene where the remains of the cockpit lay. "We came here today to express our condolences to the children that died here. There were 80."

Separatist forces have kept local residents from volunteering at the crash site. "They took one of my relatives because he went into the fields to help right after the crash, to see if there were survivors," said Halina Vasilevna, 40, who lives near the site. "They took him away for three days, and we didn't know where he was — they beat him up. We were so scared. These separatists — we know they beat people, and they steal vehicles at will."

She was outraged enough to openly criticize the separatist cause, a rarity in this region. "Very few people here support the separatists," Vasilevna said. "I want Ukraine to be one nation."

Some say the rebels' actions reflect how unprepared they were to manage a crisis with the world's eyes on them and have undermined sympathy for their cause.

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 11:24 AM

Well it looks like one of the Strela 10Ms they mercenaries claimed to have has been destroyed and the SU25 survived---another reason to keep the A10 around--congress should pay attention.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukrainian-military-plane-hit-with-missile-over-donetsk-region-destroys-launcher-lands-safely-354296.html

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 11:35 AM

kaur--another reason mirhond and company are failing ---the current narrative that they have nothing to do with supplying any Russian weapons to the mercenaries --nothing, nada nichts---then comes along a Ukrainian short article with a photo of a Russian weapons system that was never in the Ukrainian military inventory and presto all previously released propaganda lies dying in the first news cycle as no one even remotely is now believing anything that comes of of Russian media or from Putin.

Pictures are worth a thousand words---The Shmeh weapons system (thermobaric) if used in defense and attack mode is massive in the right hands.

http://en.inforesist.org/terrorists-openly-declare-that-their-weapons-and-equipment-are-supplied-by-russia/

davidbfpo

07-23-2014, 12:09 PM

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 01:08 PM

Biggus---a combined German and Italian newspaper releases story on Italian journalist interview with a separatist who had been ordered by his commander to go immediately to the crash scene and "capture the pilots"---confirms the initial voice SSU intercepts that they had assumed a military aircraft had been hit.

http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2014-07/usa-beweise-mh17-abschuss

Article also reveals that the SSU did not include the voice comments of the Russian GRU who was the person called by the separatists---his words--"The pilots---where are the pilots?"

The German newspaper FAZ released an article quoted in the German die Zeit from today online that an Italian news journalist (Corriere della Sera)spoke shortly after the downing with a separatist who was at the crash site almost immediately as he had been told by his commander to capture the pilots who were coming down by parachute. When they arrived they realized it was not a military plane but a civilian plane that had been hit.

FAZ was able to confirm the story via conversations with two other members (identified by the combat names) of the unit and the Italian newspaper was able to identify the first individual via photos the journalist had taken of the group. Both newspapers confirm the story and persons interviewed and two members of the separatist unit also admitted they knew what had been said and what was quoted was correct.

One of them stated that it had been a mistake to say what they did and maybe they should have worded their comments differently as their statements “make it sound like the separatists had shot down the plane.

NOTE: The separatists stated the locals cheered when hearing about the shot down as they had been bombed recently by Ukrainian planes--so maybe they were anticipating more Ukrainian aircraft coming back and imply waited.

Reference the initial voice intercepts the SSU released what was not relased in them was the fact that the Russian GRU individual on the other end stated “What about the pilots—Where are the pilots? Literally after being told a plane had been shot down.

Die F.A.Z. hat von anderen prorussischen Kämpfern derselben Einheit übereinstimmende Berichte erhalten wie die zuvor im „Corriere della Sera“ veröffentlichten Informationen. Zwei von ihnen haben auch ihre Kampfnamen mitgeteilt. Die Aussagen der Aufständischen, mit denen diese Zeitung am Dienstag sprach, bestätigen die des „Corriere della Sera“.

Der Zeuge der italienischen Zeitung konnte anhand eines Fotos aufgefunden werden. Er wollte sich zwar selbst nicht noch einmal äußern, aber zwei seiner Kameraden waren zur Aussage bereit. Einer sagte, die Gruppe habe nach der Explosion von ihrem Vorgesetzten den Befehl erhalten, „dort hinzugehen und den Mann am Fallschirm zu finden“. Ein anderer fügte hinzu: „Lassen Sie mich erklären. Jedes Flugzeug, das hier auftaucht, ist ein feindliches Flugzeug. Weil wir selbst keine Flugzeuge haben. Und die Flugzeuge, die hier fliegen, sind feindliche Flugzeuge.“ Die Kämpfer wiesen an dieser Stelle darauf hin, dass auch die Bevölkerung der Umgebung sich im ersten Augenblick über den Abschuss gefreut habe, weil sie glaubte, ein Kampfflugzeug der Regierung in Kiew sei getroffen worden, und weil solche Maschinen zuletzt eine Ortschaft in der Nachbarschaft „bombardiert“ hätten.

Den Kämpfern wurde während des Gesprächs mit der F.A.Z. anscheinend deutlich, dass sie im Begriff waren, ihrer eigenen Sache zu schaden. Einer sagte jedenfalls einschränkend, statt von einer Suche nach Piloten zu sprechen, „wäre es richtiger zu sagen: wir wurden hingeschickt, um die Sache zu klären, und notfalls jemanden festzunehmen.“ Er fügte hinzu: „Sonst wäre es eindeutig so, als wären wir schuld“.

Biggus

07-23-2014, 01:24 PM

Vice News scores again, with a short nine minute report; it includes footage from the scene, the OSCE statement and that of the Donbass leader, who quickly "shoots himself in the foot". Why do I say that. Just watch the scene footage 3.00-3.30 as what appear to be local fire and rescue use a circular saw to remove a piece of the plane:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNXf_HncM20

Good report to watch. I think the line between recovering bodies and recovering incriminating evidence is quite blurry here. I'd really like to think that there was a body that the gentlemen with the equipment were busy freeing from the wreckage.

Did anyone notice the guy with the AK off safe just before the nine minute mark?

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 01:35 PM

From yesterdays US intel briefing---comment by one of the briefers kind of sums up the US view of the Russian Defense Ministry's presentation.

“We’re confident no Ukrainian air defense systems were in range of the launch site or the crash site,” one official said, disputing Russian media reports that the Ukrainian military may have fired the shot. “So based on what we now know, to believe the Russian version of events, a Ukrainian SA-11 out of range travels a great distance through enemy territory, waits for a civilian airliner, does something that no Ukrainian SA-11 has done heretofore and fires a missile, fights its way out and back to base and somehow persuades separatists to post on line that they shot the aircraft down.”

US analyst humor at work---noticed the Russian said nothing today on the briefing on either Interfax and or RIA.

Noticed that at yesterday's RNSC meeting Putin stated he would try to influence the separatists---then yesterday morning the US recorded yet another 20 tanks crossing from Russia into the Ukraine.

GMTI sensors must be working overtime these days----AWCS is getting a great workout.

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 01:53 PM

Biggus

07-23-2014, 01:58 PM

One of them stated that it had been a mistake to say what they did and maybe they should have worded their comments differently as their statements “make it sound like the separatists had shot down the plane.

The benefit of hindsight.

Even without silly self-incriminating comments by over-excited rebel troops, there would probably be enough evidence pointing at them.

An-26 at the very extreme edge of MANPAD range on July 14 at Luhansk towards the end of a bunch of airstrikes. July 15-17 new bunch of airstrikes closer to Donetsk, another shootdown well out of MANPAD range. It would have been worked out one way or another. Every little bit of accidentally leaked social media or phone conversation just adds that little bit more to the stack.

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 02:11 PM

Good report to watch. I think the line between recovering bodies and recovering incriminating evidence is quite blurry here. I'd really like to think that there was a body that the gentlemen with the equipment were busy freeing from the wreckage.

Did anyone notice the guy with the AK off safe just before the nine minute mark?

One has to appreciate the humor if it was not so darn serious---he is apparently arguing that 1) the international community cannot expect the site to be totally untouched---man there is a war going on seems to be his response although the UA called for a 27km ceasefire around the crash site and 2) it is the fault of the Ukrainians as they want to drag out the investigation as they are responsible for the crash.

IMO they are cutting up the debris in the hopes of destroying any technical info that can be gleaned from it---if you notice his comments around the 5:35 mark.

Or they simply could be hauling the big chucks of metal away for cash at the local recycle plant.

Biggus

07-23-2014, 02:12 PM

Biggus:

The latest Russian theory on "who did it"?---- and "it definitely was not us or the separatists that downed the aircraft"

From Interfax today:

14:32 Ukrainian Buk-M1 might have mistaken Boeing for spy plane - Russian expert

Not sure there was a "spy plane" in the area because if it was then the Russian Defense Ministry somehow "missed it" in their briefing when they depicted the various aircraft tracks---maybe it was in "stealth" mode from Mars?

One has to love these unnamed "Russian experts".

The next excuse is about five hours away based on their release cycle---they will wait to see if this one grabs any attention in the media before they move again.

To be fair, most of the western media aviation experts are at least equally as ridiculous.

If this spy plane wasn't Ukraine's (why shoot your own), and it wasn't Russia's (because it's impossible that they'd forget they were running EW aircraft up and down and all around), then who is flying 777-like spy aircraft over the battlespace? The USAF get an order recently for tac recon in preparation for an invasion?

Russia would be far better served if they found the rebel crew, found the launch vehicle and offered to transport everything to an international court, and gave up the increasingly desperate straw-grasping.

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 03:07 PM

To be fair, most of the western media aviation experts are at least equally as ridiculous.

If this spy plane wasn't Ukraine's (why shoot your own), and it wasn't Russia's (because it's impossible that they'd forget they were running EW aircraft up and down and all around), then who is flying 777-like spy aircraft over the battlespace? The USAF get an order recently for tac recon in preparation for an invasion?

Russia would be far better served if they found the rebel crew, found the launch vehicle and offered to transport everything to an international court, and gave up the increasingly desperate straw-grasping.

Biggus---you have make an interesting point--if in fact the Russians chased down the shooters and turned over the missile and tracked vehicle they would win the prize of the year, end the sanctions and be merry partners with the EU.

But---if that is the easiest and most logical thing to do---why not--IMO Putin has gotten in so deep in his new doctrinal philosophy of protecting ethnicity based on language and his deep hatred of the West and motivated by his hardliners and his desires to see Russia a superpower he just cannot jump over his shadow and do the right thing.

By the way this hatred is in his DNA ---many from his KGB days in Dresden/Moscow have said this often in the last years---and it led to a former KGB COL being murdered in London.

That is in fact extremely dangerous-a man with a deep philosophical passion --he talks well yesterday at his RNSC meeting and then the West calms down and say see he is trying and then 20 tanks and more fighters go over the borders. And separatists are shooting SAMs like crazy so it does not seem that his words make much difference--so does he even believe his own words-- not really as it is the smoke screen he thinks the EU needs to keep from going to sanctions which will be harder.

It is more dangerous now that the UA is encircling the separatists and is basically slowly winning on their own after a really ragged start---that is something he never anticipated---so couple the potential of a UA victory it makes him look weak and a fool and thus it breaks the image he is attempting to create---maybe one should send in psychologists not diplomats to these trilateral meetings?

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 03:59 PM

Biggus---you can set your watch on these information warfare guys---here is the next big "super theory" about the shot down although an hour early as they are trying to make the evening news cycle in EU.

Interfax from today:

16:38 KYIV AUTHORITIES HOLD SOME SECRET ACTIVITIES WITH INFO OF TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ON BOEING CRASH WITHOUT NOTIFYING INT'L ORGANIZATIONS - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

By the way neither the Interfax nor their other press release agency RIA have made any comments on the US intel briefing from yesterday---think they are seriously caught in a bind with so many "alleged" going around it is hard to then catch the curve again with something that makes any kind of sense.

But in propaganda nothing needs to make sense---it is just about words and messaging

This the then the lancing of more details by the other agency RAI at 18:50 today to reinforce the first messaging---man are they working overtime for reasons---I said at the beginning of the Crimea information war it would make for a great Ph.d thesis and it really would after the shot down.

MOSCOW, July 23 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Foreign Ministry has accused Kiev of trying to influence air traffic controllers and tamper with Boeing crash data in the wake of last week's disaster in eastern Ukraine, the ministry’s spokesman said Wednesday.

“According to reports that emerge, Ukrainian authorities are conducting certain covert activities involving data storage equipment and employees of Ukrainian air traffic control services, both civilian and military, without notifying international organizations,” spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement.

He said the Ukrainian government sought to spin every fact to make Russia a target for criticism, instead of helping international experts to advance the investigation into the crash of Malaysia Airlines plane, “while also making the results of such activities open to the public.”

“Obviously, this contradicts with the goal of an objective and unbiased investigation,” the spokesman said, adding this wasn’t the first time that Ukrainians violated investigation procedures.

kaur

07-23-2014, 04:20 PM

Some guys have tracked the BUK.

Russian transport of BUK into Ukraine on July 17th
On 17/7 a Russian convoy had arrived in Ukraine which transported the BUK that shot down Malasian MK17. At about 13:30 the BUK must have entered the city Snizhne.

The convoy consisted of 3 tanks, 2 BTRs, a truck with militia, a truck with a heavy machine gun and a loader transporting the BUK.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/russian-transport-of-buk-into-ukraine.html

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/russian-transport-of-buk-that-shot-down.html

Etc

OUTLAW 09

07-23-2014, 04:27 PM

Some guys have tracked the BUK.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/russian-transport-of-buk-into-ukraine.html

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/russian-transport-of-buk-that-shot-down.html

Etc

solid kaur--solid--that was the same white tractor trailer hauling it back into Russia. this is how open source supports all source analysis.

would have been great to have the negative to see if one could seen any missiles while it was in the inbound transport mode before the shot down

mirhond

07-23-2014, 06:00 PM

mirhond, before posting next time test your links with your fallacy formula. Without going too far with your postings (this will spoil your next weekend) test your fallacy thing with RF MoD press conference.

That RIA Novosti, Leonov, Potuptchik etc chain belongs to this phenomena.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spin_(public_relations)

I am terribly disturbed that MoD is using Nashi spins in international relations sphere. Or should this confirm that MoD, RIA Novosti, Nashi guys work in concert?

1. No, no, you ask too much, I'am not very interested in double-checking my links, because disproving your funny BS and disclosing your fallacies are already take much time and give challenge to my righting skills. So, please continue to search valliantly - you really good at it and you contribute much more to the reasonable discussion then, say, Outlaw, who seems to be obsessed with me ;)
You could even pinpoint fallacies in the links and posts using relevant glossary.

2. State entities and state media are the fingers of one palm - why you ever found it disturbing?

It seems that mirhond's unit is doing push ups and running in gas masks. Temperature in Moscow is 25 C and generals are angry, because can't go to datcha and wives are sitting on their necks. At the same time most of Russia is on vacation. This makes situation very bad for mirhond's unit. He'll be very angry, when he returns to SWJ. Be aware :D

Wow, such deep knowledge of my personal life \(*_*)/
I fail to see how it's relevant to the subject, anyway.

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 12:02 AM

1. No, no, you ask too much, I'am not very interested in double-checking my links, because disproving your funny BS and disclosing your fallacies are already take much time and give challenge to my righting skills. So, please continue to search valliantly - you really good at it and you contribute much more to the reasonable discussion then, say, Outlaw, who seems to be obsessed with me ;)
You could even pinpoint fallacies in the links and posts using relevant glossary.

2. State entities and state media are the fingers of one palm - why you ever found it disturbing?

Wow, such deep knowledge of my personal life \(*_*)/
I fail to see how it's relevant to the subject, anyway.

comrade mirhond---and that palm is getting Putin in trouble due to that palm shooting down a civilian airliner---that would be correct based on your fallacies.

but in your world fallacies are truth but truth are lies thus your fallacies are lies correct comrade

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 12:36 AM

comrade mirhond---read and weep---seems your mercenaries had in fact thhe Buk---seems they cannot stop talking about the killing of 298 civilians and both Russia and they seem then to lie about it

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-kremlin-backed-rebel-commander-acknowledges-fighters-had-buk-missile-357618.html

JMA

07-24-2014, 05:20 AM

JMA

07-24-2014, 07:04 AM

:confused:

No you are not confused, you are feigning confusion... while attempting to be cute.

How would "full sectoral scantions" have "done the trick" when they are not politically feasible in the U.S. or Europe? Have you found much success in making unrealistic recommendations?

Another Dayuhan style posting I see.

I'm not the one making military recommendations. Adjust your fire elsewhere.

I'm not interested in analyzing foreign policy through the narrow lense of Outlaw's moral principles. You could be more effective in attempt at character assassination if you just came out and said what you were really thinking instead of making passive-aggressive comments. Just a suggestion. Honesty is really the best policy here.

You are correct I was not honest with you mainly because with the quick draw moderators around here that is most often not the best policy.

You see when you took my simple statement:

"Had the US and EU acted decisively and firmly this would not have happened."

... and spun it to indicate that any decisive action would ultimately lead to a military confrontation with Russia (using Outlaw's comments in the process).

You see AP that sort of (intellectual) dishonesty leads me to think of this piece of work:

Senator says he had PTSD when he wrote thesis (http://news.yahoo.com/senator-says-had-ptsd-wrote-thesis-225138658--politics.html)

With regard to his plagiarism he states:

"I don't want to blame my mistake on PTSD, but I do want to say it may have been a factor," the senator said. "My head was not in a place very conducive to a classroom and an academic environment."

and surprise, surprise (just like they did with Clinton):

National Democrats said Wednesday they remained "100 percent behind Sen. Walsh" in his campaign against Republican Rep. Steve Daines.

You see AP, as I have said before here many times,everything in the US is negotiable, that includes, ethics, morality ... the works. As the old saying goes... "Scum Rises to the Top"

Is that honest enough for you?

Biggus

07-24-2014, 07:36 AM

Some guys have tracked the BUK.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/russian-transport-of-buk-into-ukraine.html

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/russian-transport-of-buk-that-shot-down.html

Etc

Those two links are very informative. I wonder what form of resupply they were using, in terms of fuel and missiles, given that something very Buk-like shot down that An26 on July 14. Noting that it's only missing one missile, either there's a resupply, or there's a second launch vehicle.

Biggus---you can set your watch on these information warfare guys---here is the next big "super theory" about the shot down although an hour early as they are trying to make the evening news cycle in EU.

Interfax from today:

16:38 KYIV AUTHORITIES HOLD SOME SECRET ACTIVITIES WITH INFO OF TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ON BOEING CRASH WITHOUT NOTIFYING INT'L ORGANIZATIONS - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

By the way neither the Interfax nor their other press release agency RIA have made any comments on the US intel briefing from yesterday---think they are seriously caught in a bind with so many "alleged" going around it is hard to then catch the curve again with something that makes any kind of sense.

But in propaganda nothing needs to make sense---it is just about words and messaging

This the then the lancing of more details by the other agency RAI at 18:50 today to reinforce the first messaging---man are they working overtime for reasons---I said at the beginning of the Crimea information war it would make for a great Ph.d thesis and it really would after the shot down.

MOSCOW, July 23 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Foreign Ministry has accused Kiev of trying to influence air traffic controllers and tamper with Boeing crash data in the wake of last week's disaster in eastern Ukraine, the ministry’s spokesman said Wednesday.

“According to reports that emerge, Ukrainian authorities are conducting certain covert activities involving data storage equipment and employees of Ukrainian air traffic control services, both civilian and military, without notifying international organizations,” spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement.

He said the Ukrainian government sought to spin every fact to make Russia a target for criticism, instead of helping international experts to advance the investigation into the crash of Malaysia Airlines plane, “while also making the results of such activities open to the public.”

“Obviously, this contradicts with the goal of an objective and unbiased investigation,” the spokesman said, adding this wasn’t the first time that Ukrainians violated investigation procedures.

I am completely surprised that Russia isn't accusing Kiev of 'disappearing' the "Spanish ATC operator."

Given that Russian-backed militants and the Malaysians are the only ones who have had access to the black boxes (not to mention the possibility of actual Russian personnel), I can't see how they could think that this is any more believable than any previous message they've tried pushing. It ultimately does not matter, because the black boxes will contain nothing we don't already know.

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 08:14 AM

The Group of Bloggers Unearthing MH17 Intel Quicker Than U.S. Spies (http://mashable.com/2014/07/23/citizen-journalists-mh17-spies/#:eyJzIjoiZiIsImkiOiJfZTlvdzkzczhnZmRvamNnbSJ9)

Anyone still beleieve the CIA has any value?

JMA--there is an old truth all agencies do not want the public to hear, see and or understand---approximately 80% of all usable intel comes via open source---the other 20% is the technical side which if used correctly can then confirm or deny.

That rule still applies today and I would even nudge it to roughly 86-90% based on social media inputs that were not there in the past.

In approximately 2010 and driven by the company that hired Snowdon because they were the prime contractor behind a document exploitation contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars-- they gently got the US government to start classifying all open source materials as Secret in fact then jamming up the agencies because now one has to declassify what was originally open to all. In the old days while the accompanying report was classified the materials were always unclas--but not today.

But to the question--why the US government did not immediately respond using it as we did posting it here almost 36-48 hrs after the shot down eludes me even---unless there is serious concern that by pushing it into the face of Putin he would invade.

There have been a series of serious Ukrainian info releases indicating they seriously assumed Russia was in fact going to move into the Ukraine between 14-17 July about the same time as the shot down---which begs the question did the mercenaries know that to and were they given the task of clearing the air space prior to arrival?

kaur

07-24-2014, 08:41 AM

mirhond, nice to see you back. Thanks for nice words! Good sparring partner makes us all better. Keep pushing us from staying in comfort zone!

JMA

07-24-2014, 08:44 AM

But to the question--why the US government did not immediately respond using it as we did posting it here almost 36-48 hrs after the shot down eludes me even---unless there is serious concern that by pushing it into the face of Putin he would invade.

The other possible reason is that if the US went public with confirmation of Russian involvement (to put it lightly) then they might have to do something about it... as it is now they have an excuse for inaction saying they are still confirming the facts.

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 08:45 AM

kaur

07-24-2014, 09:09 AM

In an interview with Reuters, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion, acknowledged for the first time since the airliner was brought down in eastern Ukraine on Thursday that the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and said it could have been sent back subsequently to remove proof of its presence.

"I knew that a BUK came from Luhansk. At the time I was told that a BUK from Luhansk was coming under the flag of the LNR," he said, referring to the Luhansk People’s Republic, the main rebel group operating in Luhansk, one of two rebel provinces along with Donetsk, the province where the crash took place.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/23/us-ukraine-crisis-commander-exclusive-idUSKBN0FS1V920140723

See what bloggers found out about Buk and "Vostok"

Basically this means that EVERYTHING MAKES SENSE. The driver arrives in Donetsk, parks the loader, somebody sees it, tweets about it, driver does not know final destination is, calls to find out, he has to drive to the hideout to pick up some more guys from Vostok and then move on to Pervomaiskoe:

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/reconstruction-of-whereabouts-of-buk.html

I think that Ukrainians should float this area with free smartphones with free internet access and drop couple containers of Google glasses.

JMA

07-24-2014, 09:13 AM

Interesting how the German SPD is attempting to protect Putin.

Yes, but not a surprise.

The cozy relationship between Russia and Germany has been obvious for some time now... obvious even to US intelligence it seems... probably the reason for the spying on Germany - just a pity the spying was so amateur it was picked up.

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 11:30 AM

Yes, but not a surprise.

The cozy relationship between Russia and Germany has been obvious for some time now... obvious even to US intelligence it seems... probably the reason for the spying on Germany - just a pity the spying was so amateur it was picked up.

JMA --this new generation is definitely not trade craft savvy---the cold war tended to keep one focused.

But then they came out of Vienna---maybe they have just been there to long and enjoy the great life. The US term is "homesteading"--to long in one place.

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 11:32 AM

Biggus--they are still trying to grab news cycles with the Ukrainians--- they know something is being hidden in the ATC argument. Heck it could have simply been---I am taking a break and they do not understand the word break and what it means.

Interfax from today---will see if RIA goes deeper on the comment in the next couple of hours.

12:54 Retired Russian general believes Ukraine hiding key data concerning Malaysia Airlines plane crash

Wonder how much he got paid for the comment much as mirhond gets paid for his comments.

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 12:46 PM

Biggus---this came up on a Ukrainian blog I watch as the writer was a former Ukrainian officer who had served in Iraq.

Interesting comment about the height of the SU25s when hit which is above normal MANPAD ranges.

The bad news:

1. Two ATO forces’ airplanes were shot down today–the fighter jets were coming back to a base after successfully completing a special mission. There is currently no information about the fate of the pilots yet–let’s hope that they are alive.

But it is known that the jets were shot down at an altitude of 5200 meters [17,060 ft]. Man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) do not shoot at this height, including the latest Russian 9K333 “Verba,” which had previously been seen in the possession of the insurgents.

Rashisty [Russian fascists] just bend over backwards to prove that the downed “Boeing” is their handiwork. Rather than go into hiding after the disaster, like cockroaches into their cracks, they demonstrate in every way that they bring down everything they see in the Donbas sky, and at any altitude at that.

Reference the Verba MANPAD:

http://www.armamentresearch.com/9k333-verba-manpads-now-in-service-with-russian-military/

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 02:12 PM

Biggus---there was over on Ukraine@war a tweet supposedly from a former Russian AF type who stated and then gave a link that the Buk radar screens when using the tactical onboard radar cannot see the difference between a military and civilian aircraft which means in theory it would not see even a Russian military IFF.

Sorry in Russian:

http://esquire.ru/mh17

Ulenspiegel

07-24-2014, 02:17 PM

JMA--you bring up an interesting point by pointing to bloggers---

This today from Interfax proves your point---

Moscow - Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov has said that U.S. intelligence officials have not presented a single piece of evidence capable of proving that militiamen in eastern Ukraine could have been involved in the July 17 crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.

In addition to the US intel briefing they should have released every swinging photo analysis that kaur linked to as part and parcel of the briefing and simply said we concur---the photos would have been picked up by the global news cycle and then you would not have this Russian comment today.

That was indeed minor tactical mistake.

Yesterday I linked to an interview with a Ukrainian irregular commander who clearly stated another group had the Buk ---and signaled to a degree buyers remorse in the whole issue.

Why that was not splashed across the media linking again to the voice intercepts, irregular fighter interviews at the crash site and this article is beyond me.

It is as if the West does not want to rock the boat and it flies in the face of common decency to those killed---it does not confront who was behind it when the info is there in ones face.

Sorry, a regular investigation will very likely prove where the missiles were launched and who operated them. Why now this haste which could spoil the affair.

A well timed sequence of actions hurts but still offers Putin the opportunity to choose the lesser of two evils. He can not escape. Economic sanctions do not depmend on fast decisions.

What astounds me is the argument by the EU that it will damage their economies and business----there was yesterday an editorial comment by a leading Berlin newspaper pushing for some sort of action.

Sorry, of course sanctions will damage the economies of all involved countries that is trivial. Here again, one should first understand where the weak points of Putin are then act, this we-have-to-d -NOW-something argument is stupid. BTW the focus on Germany is nice, however, UK is the more important player here.

Depending on how one calculates the Russia German yearly business exchange it is only at the most 4% of their total GDP and they pointed out it is simple as an exporting country to find other outlets other than Russia for products---and about natural gas---first it is overcharged as Gasprom is in fact a total 1930 monopoly based on anyones definition and the EU is getting ready to charge exactly that and demand 10% duties on their yearly profits back to 2009.

Around 3% of German exports go to Russia, 8% of exported machinery. Compared to 2012 we have already > 20% less exports to Russia.

The Gasporm argument is nonsense, the gas price is already in most cases the pegged to the NG spot price and is not longer pegged to the oilprice. The developement was not that pretty for Gazprom the last years. But there is no short-term fix.

Secondly there is enough world wide supplies just a tad more expensive but in the end worth the shift.

The available LNG volumes are smaller than the imports from Russia, therefore a higher energy efficiency is the much better solution in combination with more LNG imports, but these take time. A 2% reduction of imports would give within a decade many options.

Interesting how the German SPD is attempting to protect Putin.

Sorry, the Steinmeier statement, the guy is SPD, was more than clear. You have a strange perception. :-)

...

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 02:26 PM

...

Ulenspiegel---check the editorial from the TagesSpiegel yesterdays front page--they will differ with you on the % of GDP and will differ with you on the SPD stance.

Secondly---here is an interesting open source investigation that has been completed by bloggers and a UK journalist which having seen their previous work virtually pinpoints the actual Buk launch site.

The EU seems to drag their feet daily and yet a group of bloggers and one journalist is what faster and or slower than the combined intel agencies of the EU/US---come on it cannot be that hard if civilians can do it for no money.

Blair got it right---EU stop looking at the US and simply act like adults and act against someone who shouted fire in a theater but set the fire himself. The EU talks about values and yet seems to not care about defending those same values when challenged in this way by Russia. Russia wants simply two tings--to isolate the EU from the US and to defeat the influence of NATO and that can be clearly seen in his moves. Once the EU is isolated then he wants to split the EU using the new EU members such as Bulgaria and Romania and to a degree Hungary, Slovenia and the Czech Republic to weaken the EU---old former communist countries die really hard in their thinking towards Russia.

If one wants to impress Putin then have the EU stop the entire South Stream and charge Gasprom as a monopolist which they are even under German cartel laws--break the end to end control of Gasprom on the pipelines, allow third party gas shipments/suppliers and deregulate who can say what goes and how much goes into the Gasprom lines and finally implement the EU cartel fines on Gasprom and the EU will get Putin's attention believe me. AND break the Gasprom contracts that state a country/company can be fined and they are regularly fined for not accepting the contract stated amounts of gas ie such has the Ukrainians get hit with every month.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/

Biggus

07-24-2014, 02:43 PM

Biggus--they are still trying to grab news cycles with the Ukrainians--- they know something is being hidden in the ATC argument. Heck it could have simply been---I am taking a break and they do not understand the word break and what it means.

There might have been an imperfect use of language. Remember MH370 and the confusion generated when there was an informal exchange between the pilot and the ATC?

Considering (as I understand) the missile hit MH17 just after (or possibly during) the handoff from Ukrainian control to Russian, there might be something we don't know in regards to the conversation between the Ukrainian controller and the aircrew.

Biggus---this came up on a Ukrainian blog I watch as the writer was a former Ukrainian officer who had served in Iraq.

Interesting comment about the height of the SU25s when hit which is above normal MANPAD ranges.

The Ukrainian air force is evidently evaluating the MANPAD threat as greater than the Buk/S-300/whatever-else threat is. I can't say I blame them, but I suspect there will be some reevaluations as time drags on. I suppose my questions before about support and resupply are being answered.

Biggus---there was over on Ukraine@war a tweet supposedly from a former Russian AF type who stated and then gave a link that the Buk radar screens when using the tactical onboard radar cannot see the difference between a military and civilian aircraft which means in theory it would not see even a Russian military IFF.

Yes, I learned that from a former Polish Buk operator awhile ago. I don't believe the surveillance radar normally used as part of a full battalion is able to differentiate between a civillian and an enemy aircraft either. I'd expect every other system in Russia to be the same, at least with the legacy Soviet developments. Which I suppose is fair enough: You don't want to let a B-1 with a civillian transponder squawking normal civillian codes if the 'capitalist pig-dogs in the West' mount a surprise attack.

OUTLAW 09

07-24-2014, 04:50 PM

There might have been an imperfect use of language. Remember MH370 and the confusion generated when there was an informal exchange between the pilot and the ATC?

Considering (as I understand) the missile hit MH17 just after (or possibly during) the handoff from Ukrainian control to Russian, there might be something we don't know in regards to the conversation between the Ukrainian controller and the aircrew.

The Ukrainian air force is evidently evaluating the MANPAD threat as greater than the Buk/S-300/whatever-else threat is. I can't say I blame them, but I suspect there will be some reevaluations as time drags on. I suppose my questions before about support and resupply are being answered.

Yes, I learned that from a former Polish Buk operator awhile ago. I don't believe the surveillance radar normally used as part of a full battalion is able to differentiate between a civillian and an enemy aircraft either. I'd expect every other system in Russia to be the same, at least with the legacy Soviet developments. Which I suppose is fair enough: You don't want to let a B-1 with a civillian transponder squawking normal civillian codes if the 'capitalist pig-dogs in the West' mount a surprise attack.

Biggus---to comments;

1. initially immediately after the downing there was a short comment floating out there that the Ukrainians and the Russians in both ATCs talked after not getting the plane up on radio and after it disappeared from radar--here is the kicker they talked about the possibility of a missile and both sides evidently agreed it was a missile.

Now if that is correct as most have turned out to be---- startled that the Russians are pushing for it--you have to assumed they recorded it as well.

2. if you go through the link yesterday on the Dontesk irregular who admitted another group had one Buk he used an unusual explanation that actually when one thinks about makes sense--BUT today he argued he never made the video but it was in fact recorded and exists regardless of what he is now saying.

He mentioned that the irregulars in the area had been attacked a number of times in the area by aircraft over the last week before the downing---thus the need to have air protection but he did not know that the Buk was there.

In the link I just posted about the alleged actual launch site the UK press reporter pointed out in the distance probably about 10-15 kms away from the launch site a hill that he said had been repeatedly attacked over the last week---from where he stood on the assumed launch site it was straight line distance open and clear in the middle of a grain field.

So in fact the Donetsk irregular said something of interest as it appears the S11 was positioned to provide air protection and the airliner came over the hill and straight at the fire position just as a military plane would do.

Drip drip drip---the Russians can not stop it.

3. In another posted online tweet the open source bloggers found was a tweet of another loaded Buk carrying a missile with a red painted warhead---any idea why red vs. the other white tipped missiles and why it seems to be always the right one when looking from the rear of the vehicle?

Biggus

07-25-2014, 07:44 AM

3. In another posted online tweet the open source bloggers found was a tweet of another loaded Buk carrying a missile with a red painted warhead---any idea why red vs. the other white tipped missiles and why it seems to be always the right one when looking from the rear of the vehicle?

I haven't found anything about why some have red noses. Unlikely to be a training variant because most launchers I see with red tips have more than one. Different guidance system is my best guess. Probably not dramatically different from the more typical 9M38.

Or the factory might have run out of white paint. I consider this unlikely.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:16 AM

I haven't found anything about why some have red noses. Unlikely to be a training variant because most launchers I see with red tips have more than one. Different guidance system is my best guess. Probably not dramatically different from the more typical 9M38.

Or the factory might have run out of white paint. I consider this unlikely.

Biggus--interesting as the Patriots have multiple use packages as well.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:42 AM

Biggus---another Russian lanced theory behind the shot down--this is the 15th reason given since the downing. One has to give them credit for the massive thought process behind the stories or maybe not.

They managed as well to intertwine even the SU2 theory into this as well.

But they did mention something of the capability at the end---meaning if multiple targets are seen it takes the largest target---interesting as that is a gap issue in the selection process. Big vs threat.

From RIA today:

MOSCOW, July 25 (RIA Novosti) – A system mix up during a Ukrainian air defense units’ rocket launch exercise could be the cause of the Malaysia Airlines crash in southeast Ukraine, a source from one of the Ukrainian defense departments told RIA Novosti.

“On July 17 the commanding officer of 156th Anti-Aircraft Regiment was instructed to conduct a training exercise of ground troops stationed near Donetsk, which involved deploying the troops, and carrying out a routine tracking and destroying of targets with the Buk-M1 missile,” the source said.

The source added that the actual launch of the rockets was not intended.

Two Sukhoi Su-25 combat aircraft on a reconnaissance mission participated in the exercise. It is likely at some point, the routes of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 and a Su-25 jet overlapped. Despite flying at different levels, they became a single dot on the radar of the missile system. Of the two, the system automatically chose a larger target.

Firn

07-25-2014, 05:53 PM

A podcast about OSINT and MH17 (http://armscontrolwonk.com/archive/4701/open-source-and-the-mh17-shootdown), which I also posted in the other relevant thread.

Biggus

07-25-2014, 06:14 PM

“On July 17 the commanding officer of 156th Anti-Aircraft Regiment was instructed to conduct a training exercise of ground troops stationed near Donetsk, which involved deploying the troops, and carrying out a routine tracking and destroying of targets with the Buk-M1 missile,” the source said.

The source added that the actual launch of the rockets was not intended.

Two Sukhoi Su-25 combat aircraft on a reconnaissance mission participated in the exercise. It is likely at some point, the routes of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 and a Su-25 jet overlapped. Despite flying at different levels, they became a single dot on the radar of the missile system. Of the two, the system automatically chose a larger target.

Bizarre.

So an AA regiment presumably including at least one battalion-sized Buk unit, with multiple surveillance and fire control radars, having full knowledge of civillian traffic, attempted to use two friendly tactical aircraft for an exercise over an active battlefield? Not to mention reasonably large numbers of high quality electro-optical sensors that would be able to see exactly what was being tracked.

Aside from that, if I was a Su25 driver, I'd be rather unhappy with having my RWR start going off over a place where I'm likely to be shot at.

I'm not used to Russian propoganda insulting our intellects by giving us such obvious guff, they're normally much more competent.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 06:16 PM

Appears Russia is concerned as to what is on the flight recorders that were passed to the UK for analysis which some say will be released this weekend as it was felt they were in good condition and it would take about two days for the first analysis.

This information was lanced today by Interfax to arouses suspicions of "someone tampering" with the recorders---might be those "suspicious" acting Spanish speaking ATC guys in the Ukrainian ATC which Russia made remarks about yesterday in their press releases.

Interfax from today:
15:43 IAC denies unauthorized access to Malaysian plane flight recorders

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 06:18 PM

Bizarre.

So an AA regiment presumably including at least one battalion-sized Buk unit, with multiple surveillance and fire control radars, having full knowledge of civillian traffic, attempted to use two friendly tactical aircraft for an exercise over an active battlefield? Not to mention reasonably large numbers of high quality electro-optical sensors that would be able to see exactly what was being tracked.

Aside from that, if I was a Su25 driver, I'd be rather unhappy with having my RWR start going off over a place where I'm likely to be shot at.

I'm not used to Russian propoganda insulting our intellects by giving us such obvious guff, they're normally much more competent.

Biggus---truly believe their are in panic mode and do not know how to recover the narrative in their information war.

Someone in Moscow is really nervous about this is all I can say.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 06:22 PM

Biggus---first it was an Ukrainian AD training exercise gone wrong and this this via Interfax this evening.

Man their information war world is upside down.

Interfax this evening:

19:09 Negligence, poor training of Ukrainian air defense units may have led to MH17 tragedy - Russian general

Russia is starting to see just why the downing narrative has derailed their information war in the following link---and it explains to a degree why they are all over the map.

But again it is one of those we "poor" Russians (woe is us kind of thing) are being beaten up on by the US media---which I admit was losing in the information war fight.

http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20140725/191277029/Flight-MH17-is-Trump-Card-in-US-Information-War-with-Russia.html

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 06:38 PM

Biggus---they just do not give up---new theory against the Ukrainians--now it is getting interesting.

In the Reuters interview where they have also the audio to the interview they had with a Ukrainian irregular commander who was an ex Alpha commander who admitted in the interview that another group had a Buk and that the Ukrainians knew about it and had tried to bomb it.

But then after the interview hit the global media and someone in Moscow stepped on his head he tried to say the in interview he did not state that about the missile being there, but Reuters replayed the audio to prove he was trying to flip flop on his new statements that there was none in the area--his new statement was that in "theory" there could have been a Buk in the area.

Now Moscow is using that interview to point out that since the Ukraine knew about the Buk being there they should have closed the airspace.

Moscow evidently has not seen this particular irregular commander flip flop on his statement and that he was talking in "theory" of the existence of a Buk and just charged ahead.

This is a perfect example of how the right and left hands are not talking and the panic is there to be seen.

Now this story flies in the face of all the past stated theories that it was the Ukrainian Buk that shot down the plane, or an Ukrainian Ad exercise or the SU25 or the Spanish ATC or the poor quality of the Ukrainian AD units and on and on.

Moscow, July 25 (RIA Novosti) - If the Ukrainian military were aware about the possible use of Buk missiles in the southeast of the country, they should have informed the crews flying over the territory, the head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) Alexandr Neradko said Friday.

“If we assume that the Ukrainian Armed Forces knew about the possible use of surface-to-air anti-aircraft Buk missiles, they should have facilitated the work of appropriate radar stations, the way it was done by the Russian air Forces,” he said.

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 07:19 PM

The German der Spiegel is reporting that NBC has gotten information that one of the voices on the first released voice intercepts was a Cossack with really really close ties to Moscow.

He is currently also in eastern Ukraine with a Cossack unit.

Cossak name: Nikolai Kosizyn--he was the one who stated in the intercept after learning it was a Malaysian airliner--said ---"then they are all spies"

http://www.focus.de/politik/videos/abgefangenes-telefonat-hier-herrscht-krieg-was-hat-dieser-kosacke-mit-dem-mh17-abschuss-zu-tun_id_4017428.html

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 07:30 PM

Biggus---truly believe their are in panic mode and do not know how to recover the narrative in their information war.

Someone in Moscow is really nervous about this is all I can say.

It appears they have found the reason for their failures right now in their information war--always blaming others.

http://en.ria.ru/authors/20140725/191283385/Moral-Terror-How-Critics-of-Western-MH17-Coverage-Are-Bullied.html

OUTLAW 09

07-25-2014, 08:21 PM

More OSINT on the items that were stolen from the dead bodies of the downed plane I guess we would need comrade mirhonds explanation of this proRussian behavior.

Young proRussian woman modeling cosmetics taken from the crash site. She admitted that she got it from a looter friend.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/07/girl-poses-with-lipstick-from-amsterdam.html

kaur

07-25-2014, 09:11 PM

7/24/2014
Is Putin Responsible For MH17? Five Questions For Investigators On Russian Culpability

www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/07/24/is-putin-responsible-for-mh17-five-questions-for-investigators-on-russian-culpability/

OUTLAW 09

07-26-2014, 06:16 AM

Putin has misunderstood the impact of the downing and the looting on the entire EU especially the Dutch who are by far the largest trader with Russia.

A poll released indicated 78% of the Dutch were in favor of sectorial sanctions even if it hurt them.

Those "zealous Christians" looting at the crash site turned public opinion across a lot of Europe.

http://news.yahoo.com/grieving-dutch-minister-made-europe-think-russia-sanctions-003553898--sector.html

As Biggus suggested Putin would have been far wiser if he turned over the launcher and those that fired it.

Biggus

07-26-2014, 08:20 AM

As Biggus suggested Putin would have been far wiser if he turned over the launcher and those that fired it.
I don't think that this will ever happen. I can't see a way for Russia to save any semblance of face after more than a week of obvious lies.

AmericanPride

07-26-2014, 08:27 AM

OUTLAW 09

07-26-2014, 03:38 PM

Outlaw,

What political outcome are expecting from all of this? Shaming is not an effective strategy in politics - it only hardens the position of the opposite party, especially if they still retain the power to act independently. Already the media is reporting that Russia is in fact escalating its activities in Ukraine. What's the West counter-action?

AP---let us see just how Russia responds to the EU publishing of the sanctions list this weekend.

Already the Russian stock market and Russian financial markets are in a nose dive and the Rubel has dived and the interest rates for their government bonds and the central raised the interest rates to 8% just trying to keep money from flowing out.

The IMF had predicted 75B USD would flow out after the Crimea--there is now over 100B that has flowed out and more daily---the Russians themselves stated Friday they are just short of a "technical" recession--which the IMF states will take them roughly six years to come out of of and the GDP looks to be almost flat and still sinking---the first series of sanctions are hitting and hurting.

Russia forgot being nothing more than a raw resource provider does not leave room for much maneuvering if the economy goes south.

Today it was signaled by the German industrial groups---they are going along with anything the EU wants to sanction and Germany on it's own is extending financial sanctions---meaning no loans for projects in Russian.

It appears the US is going for another round of Russian businesses to be placed on the sanctions listing.

The Dutch were against any form of sanctions based on their high level of trade with Russia---they are pushing the hardest now in the EU due to the high number of their killed citizens.

Let's see how this shakes out in the next 72 hrs.

Or we could simply look at what the definition is for war and notice that Russia is already at war with the Ukraine and secondly at war with the EU via the Ukraine as the target is really the split up of NATO, the EU and separation of Europe from the US.

Putin simply has a deep distain of the West plain and simple--- regardless of whatever we do--he is not going to change that attitude.

OUTLAW 09

07-26-2014, 03:48 PM

Biggus---looks like Russia counted all the downed SU 25s and cannot understand why there seem to be more than they thought the Ukrainians actually had.

Maybe they are going to blame the US for secretly purchasing them in say Iraq and shipping them to Germany and secretly moving them by rail then to the Ukraine.

Interfax from today:

17:21 Ukraine may have secretly received Su-25 warplanes from another country - Russian Air Force commander

JMA

07-26-2014, 03:55 PM

The Dutch were against any form of sanctions based on their high level of trade with Russia---they are pushing the hardest now in the EU due to the high number of their killed citizens.

There is nothing stopping the Dutch from applying unilateral sanctions against Russia if they feel so strongly about it all.

OUTLAW 09

07-26-2014, 04:13 PM

There is nothing stopping the Dutch from applying unilateral sanctions against Russia if they feel so strongly about it all.

Absolutely correct and now this morning Germany's largest political party the CDU is pushing for even harder sanctions from themselves even tougher than this last round this weekend---this round itself will cost them 4B Euros or about 5.6B USD---not chump change to their economy which they anticipate will now slow down.

Merkel "leaked" today that she is totally fed up in being lied to and that Putin himself has damaged long term German industrial and political interests---the German industry association has indicated Russia is no longer on their radar screen as politically it is to risky and Putin has changed the game rules for industrial investments.

There are some indicators today in Germany that Germany is now pushing the EU Cartel Office to move ahead against Gasprom which in fact is far more damaging than sanctions as it will break the Gasprom monopolistic contracts and Russia's hold on the gas lines/gas as a weapon, new suppliers can then use the pipelines and pricing contracts must then go over a central bidding process much as the deregulated electrical power suppliers now have in the EU.

That is why the yelling was massive today out of Moscow--they "see" the pain coming and cannot do anything to stop it other than declare defeat in eastern Ukraine which they will probably not do thus more sanctions. A defeat now for Putin in his eyes is unacceptable thus his economy will nose dive around him in the coming months or he will go for an armed "peacekeeper" option to save face causing even more sanctions---he is in a bind.

What appears to be happening in the EU is that there is a common set of sanctions and every country is now allowed to move forward what they can additionally take on and not damage badly their own economies---an interesting EU development if one asks me as it allows the weaker ones to generally partiticapate as well as those that are friendly to Russia ie Italy etc and then to stay steady state.

I have always said here in SWJ that when Putin fully sees the West paying a hefty price to defend EU stated values---then and only then will Putin get it--that has now happened and the anger coming out of Moscow is massive today as they know it will hurt and they realize suddenly they have no way to push back.

They have no way to counteract the sanctions being a single raw resource well maybe a two raw resource economy and dependent of the EU for high quality products and technological developments and the building of new factories---have you noticed they have not responded at all outside of a few names of the visa restrictions list?

Now Putin fully understands the EU is ready to even go further by the middle of next week again if he does not throttle back the separatists inside the Ukraine and or more weapons and personnel go over the borders. The US has clearly signaled to Putin that via GMTI sensors in the constant flying AWACs/EW NATO aircraft ---they can count and identify every vehicle crossing the border as well as manpower.

All the while the UA just keeps taking back town after town.