Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

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Allahu Akbar... Chechen battalion Sheikh Mansour in #Shyrokyne, night battle

https://youtu.be/uPtl7i4gJk8
#Mariupol

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14:00
Heavy (RU) artillery shelled #Chermalyk, Telmanovo distr. https://twitter.com/vladicvp/status/592685885486964739 …

Again smoke is rising over #Makeevka today as fighting is ongoing around #Donetsk

Russian Backed Forces At 'Highest Level' Of Combat Readiness As Ukraine-EU Summit Starts http://bit.ly/1dkqiYQ

Russian forces/militia large-scale military exercises near Lutuhyne, Luhansk region pic.twitter.com/xq2kfkT1BC

OSCE saw (Russian) armor fire 1st in major escalation near Shirokino & firing ZU-23-2 gun at civilians in Schastye https://twitter.com/MillerMENA/status/592681188210417666 …

From the realm of Russian FM “strangeness”;
MFA Russia thinks the "Sturgeon" and "Night Fish" bikers are worthy of comment... https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/592703430885539840 …

How terrorists' websites manipulate human consciousness & engage fighters? (English sub-titles) #Russia #propaganda https://youtu.be/VadtdBomsSs

In Donetsk city, Russian Grad MLRS, 2S1 Gvozdika SPGs & D-30 howitzers. They say for the parade. pic.twitter.com/dFfA6EbqQm

We don't bother reporting Russian military combat training exercises anymore... there's so many of them https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/592700242010710018 …

Pro-#Russia militants increase attacks, use tanks, artillery, AA guns http://bit.ly/1DEnN9c via @unian pic.twitter.com/dcAMPhX0Y8

Again massive discrepancy between headline & actual news (highlighted in blue).
Typical #Russia @SputnikInt BS. pic.twitter.com/rvl0eLMaKc

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The Curious Chronology of Russian Twitter Bots http://globalvoicesonline.org/2015/04/27/the-curious-chronology-of-russian-twitter-bots/ … @LawrenceA_UK’s 2nd & final @runetecho installment on pro-Kremlin bots

Interesting exchange between Turkey and Putin:
Erdogan responds to Putin's Armenian genocide remarks by asking to explain Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Really great new open source (Russian Face Book sources) video on the Russian BUK that shot down MH17

New photos of Russian BUKs movement, June 2014http://informnapalm.org/8450-mh17
pic.twitter.com/YepVBdCPTK
via @666_mancer

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Russian shellings are at a high point since Feb 2015, their troops and heavy weapons are also on the move--ALL in violation of Minsk 2.

14:22 #Donetsk @donetsk_ukrop: In residential compound Yevropeysky's yard there are 3 #Grad|s, 4-5 howitzers, many Urals etc

14:00 #Donetsk @GirkinGirkin: There are 4 #Grad|s and 2 howitzers near Amstor hypermarket in railway station area.

at 14:00 @vladicvp #Chermalyk, Telmanovsky raion was shelled

16:01 #Donetsk @AlfaNubovsky: fr/Kyivsky Ave 6 covered trucks & 1 2A19 T-12 Rapira & 4 122mm howitzers D-30 down to Popovicha

HOWITZERS ON 48.0373198,37.7818582, RIGHT NOW

14:29 #Donetsk @donetsk_ukrop: 3 KUNG Kamaz trucks via Artema St w/trailers (like electric transformer booths)& 1 w/container

16:19 #Donetsk @UkraineSuper1:Many new painty RUS mil hardware appeared fr/trucks to Gvozdika

16:10 Tochmash:SPG/tank volleys

Russian shell residential areas and are proven to shell them BUT then argue “it was the Ukrainians—same old drill as before Minsk 2 that led to Minsk 2.

Opposing Sides Exchange Claims Of Shelling Of Residential Areas. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-434-one-ukrainian-soldier-killed-three-wounded-as-fighting-continues/#8065 …

This is from a town shelled today by Russian heavy artillery:
17:09 @EmMemvm: "Today I saw a bus full of refugees fr/shelled #Chermalyk, people had just what they had on"

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#Donetsk, video of cannons at Severny pic.twitter.com/Qqc429HqHK https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkPWYwYoqjU …

#Rumours @falconua:"They say cossack ataman #Kosogor was shot down about 3 weeks ago

#Luhansk rebel leader Plotnitsky said to have been arrested and taken to #Russia for a little chat: http://vlada.io/vlada_news/separatistyi-soobshhayut-ob-areste-igorya-plotnitskogo-v-rossii/ … via @den_kazansky

#Ukraine sides saw Minsk II ceasefire as breathing space. Some weapons now moving back to front lines.

17:30 #Donetsk @AlfaNubovsky:6 trucks w/troops 1 covered high-sided, 2 command, 3 armoured along UniversytetskaSt/KyivskyAve

17:55 #Donetsk @AlfaNubovsky: 1 covered high-sided truck and a mil UAZ car w/troops along Universytetska/Kyivsky

18:54 #Avdeevka @rechnikato: I can hear #Grad impacts not far away

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#Donetsk @nixer79: MRLS volleys, like #Grad
18:50 4 rockets
18:53 16 items
'like from #Yasynuvata'

19:33 #Donetsk @AlfaNubovsky: from Oktyabrsky Rudnik mine office premises they shell at #Pisky w/arty or tanks

19:50 #Shakhtarsk @Helgi__UA a car w/police lights&8 18-wheelers fr/#Donetsk eastward.'Typical recent picture, Russia steals'

Armed forces of Ukraine neutralized a saboteur group with two citizens of #Russia pic.twitter.com/fNU16HSIzF http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/27-april-afu-neutralized-the-threat-drg-with-two-citizens …

Ukraine's democracy a threat to Putin. Time is against him. That's why he has to act. @georgesoros at #ConflictForum pic.twitter.com/ZsE42M3PSA

Putin doesn’t want to take part of Ukraine. His aim is to destabilise all of Ukraine. @georgesoros at #ConflictForum pic.twitter.com/tPYvzt1TUK

Some 70th WW2 Victory Anniversary billboards in Russia use photoshopped American troops on them pic.twitter.com/DQprIRjpCb

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#Avdiivka 6:54PM
Hearing the falling GRAD's. Close. https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/592718501237915648 …

Russian oppositioner A.Piontkovsky thinks Putin is ready to stop supporting DPR/LPR in exchange of lifting sanctionshttp://espreso.tv/article/2015/04/25/andriy_piontkovskyy_putin_hotuyetsya_do_nastupnykh _provokaciy_na_terytoriyi__postradyanskoyi_imperiy i …

'An ordinary litter-bin in #Donetsk' - Russian Voentorg food box @njiktrk pic.twitter.com/TJDPIf6cW8

Nothing like “buyers remorse”:
Medvedev: Russia has to stop sending too much money to Crimea and attract investmentshttps://news.mail.ru/inregions/crimea/110/politics/21858315/ …

"LNR" "leader" #Plotnitsky taken to #Russia for "questioning" http://vlada.io/vlada_news/separatistyi-soobshhayut-ob-areste-igorya-plotnitskogo-v-rossii/ … via @2111015 pic.twitter.com/hHZwwsJWCE

20 mines to be closed on the territory occupied by "DPR" pic.twitter.com/oL5BznRNeh

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Notice Russian FM says nothing about the Russian biker gang Night Wolves having participated in the taking over of Ukrainian military bases in Crimea and organizing the recent anti-Maidan demonstration in Moscow.

Moscow demands explanations from Warsaw over denying entry to Russian bikers
Russia
April 27, 20:12 UTC+3

© ITAR-TASS/Gennadiy Khamelyanin


MOSCOW, April 27. /TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry demands explanations from Warsaw over its denial of entry to Russian bikers from the Night Wolves club, the ministry said in a statement.

"On April 27, a group of Russian motorcyclists who planned to pay tribute, shortly before the 70th anniversary of the Victory, to the memory of Soviet warriors who had died when liberating European states from fascism were denied entry to the Polish territory via the Brest-Terespol border crossing point," the statement said.

"We are demanding explanations from the Polish authorities and decisively condemn their actions testifying to the readiness to rewrite history and in essence blaspheme, for opportunistic reasons, over the feat of those who saved Poland and the world from fascism," it said.

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Russian FM totally fails to mention that the Ukrainians have placed a special zone status into affect BUT it is tied to free elections under international monitoring using Ukrainian election laws and voter registration lists.

Minsk 2 does not give the Russian occupied zones any say in the changes to the Ukrainian constitution unless the elections take place and many have said Russia does not want the elections to ever occur.

Russia is attempting to have the mercenaries being able to have a say in every Ukrainian decision thus blocking the EU/NATO decisions--in effect Russia is pushing the Bosnia model.

That is why they use the term "federalization not decentralization".

Luhansk, Donetsk have no say in Ukraine’s constitutional reform — Russia FM

April 27, 20:10 UTC+3

The constitutional process envisages agreeing with Luhansk and Donetsk all amendments to the Ukrainian constitution that are related to their territories

THIS was not approved by the Ukraine nor agreed to in Minsk 1 and 2.

© EPA/TASS/MAXIM SHIPENKOV


MOSCOW, April 27. /TASS/. A constitutional reform in Ukraine is being conducted without a say from Luhansk and Donetsk, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the Rossiya-24 television channel.

"The Minsk agreements plainly provide for decentralization - political, economic, cultural. They have detailed description of what is to be done. The authors of the wording are Germany and France," he said.

"The constitutional process envisages agreeing with Luhansk and Donetsk all amendments to the Ukrainian constitution that are related to their territories," he noted. "An ad hoc commission was set up in Kiev under the Ukrainian president but Luhansk and Donetsk have no representatives in this commission."

The Russian foreign minister said Russia had raised the problem of Ukraine’s constitutional reform during contacts with European and US partners, at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe. The latter, in his words, had offered its assistance in wording a new edition of the Ukrainian constitution. "It is becoming ever more difficult for them to evade answers," he added.

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Some of the heavy Russian SPG artillery is arriving in Donetsk still sporting the standard Russian dark green color as applied at the factory and then shipped to the depots-----

Brand new self-propelled howtizers in Donetskhttp://liveuamap.com/en/2015/27-april-brand-new-selfpropelled-howtizers-in-donetsk … pic.twitter.com/hjDttqpCDA via @InfoResist

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Latest twist from the Kremlin: Russia attempts to turn its war against Ukraine into a religious war! https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/592747588132196353 …

Russia Slams Direct Contacts Between Ukrainian Orthodox Church (KP), NATO

© Sputnik/ Alexandr Maksimenko
s
18:46 27.04.2015(updated 20:10 27.04.2015)

Moscow sharply criticized on Monday a recent visit by the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kiev Patriarchate, Patriarch Filaret, to NATO headquarters in Brussels.


MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Filaret met on April 22 with NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow to discuss the ongoing military conflict in eastern Ukraine.

"This meeting, aside from its 'military' content, hinders the resolution of controversial issues and the search for common ground within the split Ukrainian society," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

"It could also become 'a delayed-action mine' threatening the peace process in Ukraine on the basis of internal dialogue and reconciliation," the statement said.

Ukrainian media reported last week that Patriarch Filaret also had held close to 20 meetings with various NATO and European Union leaders in a bid to garner European support.

Previously, Patriarch Filaret visited Washington in early February, calling on the US government to provide modern defensive weapons to Ukrain

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21:53 #Shakhtarsk @Helgi__UA: 19 more RUS Ural trucks from #Donetsk eastward.

27.04.2015 Fighting in Metro store area and near airport https://youtu.be/zodwemChOMY #Donetsk

Report: plenty of troops come from #Russia Russia, then get hidden. Smth brewing. pic.twitter.com/hg2zsiTy94

Ukrainian people digging trenches in #Artemovsk.
Preparing for Russian hybrid army assault.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIwadDWQeSw … pic.twitter.com/Lx3eN2EGpv

‘Putin Involved in Drug Smuggling Ring’, Says Ex-KGB Officer http://www.newsweek.com/putin-involved-drug-smuggling-ring-says-ex-kgb-officer-313657#.VT5-TdSYwgl.twitter …

#Moscow #Putin first steal factories, now shut down mines in #Donetsk to make the #Russia mine Oligarchs richer & #Ukraine #Donbas poorer.

Russian soldier documented missile system that shot down MH17 jetliner being moved to Ukraine https://informnapalm.org/8450-mh17 pic.twitter.com/BnwezFPlHa

Reports that #Avdeevka was hit by GRAD rockets this evening coming in after #Russia|ns brought back a lot of heavy equipment to #Donetsk

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The latest Russian mercenary argument for so many armored vehicles, SPG artillery and MRLSs in Donetsk is that they need to "practice" for the 9 May celebration THEN they will remove them as they are a direct violation of Minsk 2.

OSCE did refuse their request for the 9 May as it was a direct violation SO why do they need the weapon systems on 25 April??

BUT surprisingly the shellings have been increasing with each new heavy weapons convoy that comes into Donetsk.

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Great article and really up-to-date on the Russian military moves that might be possible in the Ukraine

PART 1 of 2 PARTS

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russias_military_options_in_ukraine3010

Russia’s military options in Ukraine
The next battle for Ukraine series
Gustav Gressel
27th April, 2015


After the fall of Debaltseve on 19 February – four days after the ceasefire agreed in Minsk came into force – the front remained relatively calm for some time, suggesting that Russia had shifted from war to political and diplomatic efforts to destabilise Ukraine. However, the war in Ukraine has had many on and off phases, and the current phase of relative calm may not last. Russia conducted larger military manoeuvres in March 2015. Usually, such manoeuvres are a cover for troop rotations. Many formations leave the barracks; some will return after the manoeuvres, some will head for the Donbas, and others will return from Ukraine. Western intelligence finds it difficult to know who is where. Russia is trying to hide its military engagement from its public, so it cannot deploy the same formations over a long time in the war zone. The Royal United Service Institute has observed that an increasing number of Russian formations are being used to provide troops and materiel to the Donbas in order to keep the numbers of death per garrison small. The winter fighting season has ended, and if Russia wants to conduct a spring offensive with fresh troops, it needs to have put them in place during March and April. Further military escalation cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the West should not stay idle, but should consider what it can do to deter Russia from escalating the war again and what to do if deterrence fails.


The war in Ukraine has had many on and off phases, and the current phase of relative calm may not last.

The war so far

Ukraine faced a very difficult military situation after the capture of Crimea. In April 2014, Russia deployed about 150,000 soldiers on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Around half of the forces were paramilitary forces of Russia’s Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry for Emergency Situations. This showed that Russia was considering occupying Ukraine and setting up an occupation regime. The Ukrainian armed forces were at an all-time low. Of the entire Ukrainian Army (then about 41,000 men strong), not more than 6,000 were judged combat-ready. Initial mobilisation yielded no more than 10,000 additional troops. No armoured unit was able to leave the barracks, because of lack of fuel and bad maintenance. Those sent to the Donbas were in a dismal state. The supply chain was non-existent, so was resolve and discipline. Russian intelligence services were well aware of the state of Ukraine’s armed forces. They knew that victory would have been easy. However, they decided not to invade, and moreover, they never again took a similar posture on Ukraine’s borders or mobilised the paramilitary services to a meaningful extent. Today in the Donbas, Russian paramilitaries take only minor roles, such as enforcing discipline among Russian troops or repairing damaged infrastructure. Russian forces on Ukraine’s borders provide a backup for operations and train and equip Russian volunteers. But nothing suggests that Russia’s military planners again considered a full invasion of Ukraine.

The creation of voluntary forces (the so-called Maidan battalions that were later integrated in the army or national guard) and voluntary organisations that provide all kinds of services for the armed forces (food supply, spares, personnel equipment, ambulances, repair-shops, upgrades for equipment, etc.) took Russia by surprise. Ukraine proved much more resilient to military pressure than Russia expected. Furthermore, the informal structures on which the Ukrainian military effort rests, might work as well in a partisan war. If Russia’s military had pushed deep into Ukraine, it would have to fight a counter-insurgency campaign that it can hardly afford. The results of such a campaign would be uncertain. Hence Russia abandoned the idea of total war in favour of limited war. It is noteworthy that if all-out war would have too high a cost, raising the stakes of a limited war will hardly make Moscow reconsider this calculus.

After Ukraine made considerable progress in pushing back the pro-Russian separatists in the summer of 2014, threatening the existence of the People’s Republics, Russia deployed regular mechanised combat units against Ukrainian forces from August onwards. At that point, the voluntary National Guards battalions were carrying out much of the fighting on the Ukrainian side. The regular army was mostly engaged in combat-support duties. The voluntary forces were light infantry in essence and despite being highly motivated, they proved no match for regular Russian armoured formations. The slaughter of the voluntary forces culminated in the battle of Ilovaisk, where about 5,000 Ukrainian servicemen were encircled. Aside from the lack of equipment, the loss came about because of mistakes in tactical and operational leadership.

With Russian forces advancing simultaneously in other places across the front line, Russia could have pushed much further into Ukraine, encircling Mariupol and pushing for the borders of Donetsk Oblast at least. Russia chose not to do so. It was enough to inflict a humiliating defeat at Ilovaisk and to demonstrate that Russia could at any time disrupt Ukrainian military operations in the east. After the battles of September-October 2014, the war entered a temporary cooling-off phase, used by Russia to rotate, relocate, and re-supply its troops. Due to increased defence spending, partial mobilisation, and improvements in the supply chain (particularly because many tasks of supplying the army were handed over to voluntary organisations), Ukraine was able to field many more regular army units. The winter fighting season started with the battle of Donetsk airport in January 2015.

The Ukrainian soldiers – both regular and voluntary – again showed great courage and resilience, but the battle for Donetsk airport revealed major shortcomings of the Ukrainian Army: poor coordination between armour, infantry, and artillery, as well as between formal Army and National Guard militias, faulty situation-awareness, insufficient communication of changes to the tactical situation, and again tactical as well as operative mistakes. Russia did not beat the Ukrainian forces by overwhelming them, but by outmanoeuvring them. Again, the Russian forces did not exploit their victory to penetrate further into Ukraine. The same pattern was repeated in the fight for the pocket southeast of Debaltseve. Ukrainian soldiers fought with bravery, especially in the city of Debaltseve itself, where the urban environment reduced much of the Russians’ technical and leadership advantage. But Ukraine’s forces should have been withdrawn as soon as possible; it was clear that the bulge would allow the Russian Army to encircle Ukrainian troops again. The Ukrainian withdrawal was chaotic: it was “self-organised” on the ground rather than ordered from Kyiv. The state of denial of the military and political leadership in Kyiv cast doubt on the ability of the general staff. Again, Russia was exploiting the destabilising effect of the defeat without having to govern larger parts of Ukraine on its own.

Russian military behaviour throughout the conflict suggests that the military effort is part of a destabilisation policy aimed at breaking down Kyiv’s resolve to resist Russian demands. Hence, Russia does not need to conquer large parts of Ukraine: it concentrates on inflecting humiliating defeats that come at a low cost. Russia believes that Ukraine will collapse sooner or later: politically, militarily, or economically. Politically and militarily, Moscow so far has underestimated Ukraine’s resilience. But a renewed military offensive seems likely if Ukraine proves to be economically resilient as well.

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PART 2 of the previous linked article:


How will Russia proceed?

Calm should not be taken for granted: as long as Russia sticks to a limited and (officially) undisclosed war, it needs breaks between different phases of fighting. Russia cannot leave its units in the Donbas for very long, because disproportionate losses in the battalions would be hard to hide. So, it is rotating its brigades and battalions in the Donbas. Russia may also hope that one of the pro-Russian states in Europe – Austria, Hungary, or Greece, for example – will veto an extension of sanctions if the front stays calm.

Russia still wants to enforce its rule over Kyiv. If the war were just about the Donbas, Russia would probably have recognised the “people's republics” as independent states. This would give Russia the opportunity to openly display its presence in the “brother-states” and consolidate its gains. However on several occasions Moscow declined to do so, indicating that the war is just another tool to force Kyiv into submission and hence will continue.


The war is another tool to force Kyiv into submission and hence will continue.

An undisclosed war means Russia must stick to a limited war, or a war of attrition. Any larger, multi-phased mechanised assault into Ukraine would reveal Russia’s direct involvement in the war to the domestic audience as well as to even the most pro-Russian foreign government. Russia would then face increased sanctions, at the least. Russian military analysts are nervous about what the United States would do in such a scenario.

A total offensive to conquer all of Ukraine seems highly unlikely. Russia probably does not have the resources to support an occupation regime all across Ukraine, buy local complicity, and fight a counterinsurgency campaign on a grand scale. A more limited option would be the conquest of Novorossiya up to the Dniepr River. This scenario would omit the probable centres of fiercest resistance and the terrain most favourable for guerrilla warfare and would increase leverage for negotiations with Ukraine on “federalisation” and “neutralisation”. However, it would also increase the costs of the Russian occupation and a counterinsurgency campaign would still be necessary. Moreover, private enterprises would likely avoid doing business in “Novorossiya” for fear of Western sanctions, so Russia would have to pump in Russian public money. Russia could not be sure that Ukraine would negotiate with Russia or that the West would not ramp up its political, military, and economic support – or even accept “West Ukraine” into NATO and the EU, as it did with West Germany. In that scenario, Russia would permanently lose the rest of Ukraine. Therefore, it will try to find a cheaper solution to destabilise Ukraine without provoking a strong Western reaction.

Russia’s most likely course of action is to conduct limited offensives against Ukrainian forces (not necessarily territory) to show Ukraine that violence will only end on Russia’s terms, and to reinforce Kyiv’s economic woes. The war has caused severe economic difficulties and continuing uncertainty about Ukraine’s future will prolong these problems. The longer the economic crisis persists, the greater will be the pressure on the government in Kyiv to find a compromise. Additionally, the West has to pump money into Ukraine because of the economic effects of war, investor uncertainty, and Russia’s trade policies towards Ukraine. Highly visible but militarily cheap victories like Debaltseve could increase frustration among the Ukrainian population, on which Russia could capitalise. Hence, limited military escalations are embedded in a policy of political subversion, trade war, financial isolation, terrorist destabilisation, and political defamation of Ukraine in the West. Russia will be flexible in using its military superiority and will take chances that arise on short notice. Discontent with Ukrainian political measures agreed at Minsk (such as the law of self-governance for the rebel areas) could be used to spark limited rebel provocations or offensives, and Russian troops will be waiting to exploit the Ukrainian response.

Russia has no intention of ending the standoff quickly. Russia knows that even if its economy is deteriorating, Ukraine’s is deteriorating faster. At some point, Russia will probably manage to stabilise its domestic economy. A rapid military victory would inflict great costs on Russia. But as long as the war continues, the costs fall on the West. If Ukraine should collapse after several years of futile Western support, it would deter the West from trying to support any further “Colour Revolution” in Russia’s near abroad.

European Options

The ceasefire is likely to break down once Russian troops in eastern Ukraine have rotated, reinforced, and resupplied, so the West needs to think more broadly about how to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.

One policy may be to strengthen Ukraine’s capacity to inflict costs on Russian forces – which would make it much more difficult for Russia to deny its level of involvement. Advocates of delivering lethal aid tend to forget that training and doctrine are just as important. Training of Ukrainian military personnel in the West has started begun on a small scale. The common Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian brigade as well as US and British training initiatives will also increase the professionalism of Ukrainian military personnel. However, training and education will need time to take effect. The defence -reform that Kyiv has been undertaking since January has so far yielded few results. Kyiv needs to understand that supplementing official state-structures with voluntary nongovernmental ones has its limits: the west for legal reasons cannot deliver heavy arms to voluntary organisations. Deep reform and lustration of the Ukrainian ministry of defence are necessary – most effectively under supervision and involvement of Western officers.

Other options are to deploy military personnel to Ukraine, either in the form of a peacekeeping force or as a unilateral measure of reassurance. The stakes for Russia could be raised further by an ambiguous guarantee for Ukraine’s sovereignty that would not embolden Kyiv to engage in offensive actions, but would threaten a Western military response to Russian aggression, similar to US guarantees to Taiwan. Such measures seem drastic now, and are probably beyond the threshold of acceptability to Western domestic audiences. But European governments in particular need to realise that the longer they refrain from effectively countering Russian aggression, the bolder Russia will become in airing and executing threats to neighbouring countries


The myth of Russian escalation dominance

Western policymakers, particularly in Western Europe, often say “there is no military solution to the conflict”. The phrase is misleading and self-defeating. All military conflicts are ended by diplomatic agreements – but the military situation dictates the terms of the agreement. And as long as the West refrains from further engagement, Russia can pursue its own military solution.


As long as the West refrains from further engagement, Russia can pursue its own military solution.

Moreover, the idea that Russia will escalate the conflict as soon as Western lethal aid arrives in Kyiv is out of touch with reality. In Russian propaganda, Russia is already fighting a proxy war in Ukraine against NATO, the US, or a Western conspiracy. Russia does not care whether its lies are “confirmed” by the West’s actions or not. Russia refrains from total escalation because of costs, not Western behaviour. Russia’s aggressive rhetoric aims to scare off the West – the more seriously the West takes Moscow’s empty threats, the more effective they are.The problem for Moscow is that as long as the US are able to shift forces to the European continent, the West will be capable to mount a military response Russia cannot match. Russia knows that it would lose a major war with the West. But this situation would change if Russia could split the West, especially by splitting the US from Europe. And Russia knows that Western policy makers are hesitant to resort to military means – hence Russia uses military threats for intimidation. Especially nuclear threats are aimed at subverting Western unity and willingness to react to Russian aggression. Since 2008, top Russian officials have threatened to use deep nuclear strikes against selective high-value targets should the West interfere in a conflict in Russia’s immediate neighbourhood. Vladimir Putin entered this game for the first time during the annexation of Crimea, with his remarks about raising the state of alert of Russia’s nuclear weapons. In the past, aggressive rhetoric about pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons formed part of an intimidation strategy to dissuade Europe from engaging in Russia’s “sphere of influence”. But the West could escalate even a nuclear war to Russia’s disadvantage. Russia is betting that in a nuclear game of chicken, the West would back down first.

However, if Russia finds that it cannot deter the West with these kinds of threats, it will hardly escalate further. The West possesses the ultimate escalation dominance. And as long as the West is ambiguous about the support it will provide Kyiv, Russia needs to be careful about the risks it is prepared to take.

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07:45 Kuzminki, #Rostov rgn, #Russia: An SPG is exploded, field ammo depot is on firehttp://archive.is/frQdW

Terrorists shelled Novolaspa village from Grads - ATO press center http://24today.net/open/392144

Terrorists shell communities and #Ukrainian troops’ positions with BM-21 ‘#Grad’. http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/04/28/terrorists-shell-communities-and-ukrainian-troops-positions-with-bm-21-%E2%80%98grad/ …

Apr27 #Luhansk rgn @GirkinGirkin Drills in Illiria nature reserve're finished, mil hardware's deployed pic.twitter.com/KGcyrfUpx7

UKR Embassy in LTU @UKRinLTU
#Russia continues violating Minsk Agreements. Infographics#MinskViolations pic.twitter.com/tLufcQ0kSg

Putin in his last couple of press conference ie “own films” has been all over the map with his “definition of reality”.

Putin in another film, with yet more versions of reality: US terrorists, peaceful protesters as enemies
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-april-27-2015/#8068 …

Hundreds of Russian tanks have been supplied in East Ukraine - NATO Official
http://uatoday.tv/politics/hundreds-of-russian-tanks-have-been-supplied-in-east-ukraine-nato-official-423976.html …

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This Chechen special police officer is now in Russia prison awaiting trial on the recent killing of a Russian opposition leader.
"REN TV" reports on video evidence of Djambulat Dadaev's involvement in attempt on businessman in Stavropol http://eng.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/31548/

#Breaking
Azov and Donbas refuse to leave #Shyrokyne, see "agents of the Kremlin" in the Ukr parliament, lament "80% Russian OSCE monitors

Banned frm #Poland, #Putin’s pocket ‘Night Wolves’ bikers vow to reach #Berlin http://www.euronews.com/2015/04/27/banned-from-poland-russia-s-night-wolves-bikers-vow-to-reach-berlin/#.VT6dDxFZF-c.twitter …
pic.twitter.com/Xlj47sKurO

West may not be trustworthy, but Moscow offers no viable alternative—What Central Europe Really Thinks About Russia http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/28/opinion/what-central-europe-really-thinks-about-russia.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share …

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22 times in 6hours. The Russia-led terrorists shelled #Ukraine's troops positions yesterday from 6 pm to midnight - ATO press center report.

U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce
#Russia-backed separatists continue to shell #Ukraine forces & refuse #OSCE monitors the agreed access. https://twitter.com/USNATO/status/592933933353988096

With Russia increasing its forces in Ukraine, why is Germany focusing more on Kyiv to implement #Minsk2 than Moscow? http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/51a3148a-ec12-11e4-b428-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3YXEnjcXJ …

John Kerry criticizes Kremlin for violating Budapest Memorandum
http://uatoday.tv/politics/top-us-diplomat-criticizes-kremlin-for-violating-budapest-memorandum-424044.html … pic.twitter.com/M97EOprQn3

Rus-backed militants keep firing at Shchastia, #Luhansk reg since last night. Damaged Ukr fortifications, no casualt http://informator.lg.ua/?p=87821#more-87821

#Donetsk 10:17
Kalinovka - column of 14 Urals towards west. Via - @Serzzze

Situation in #ATO zone is escalating. Near Avdiivka terrorists opened fire by MLRS BM-21 'Grad' - ATO press center https://youtu.be/F3BulBQIhho

ATO: Militants fire Grad rockets on Novolaspa in Donetsk region, situation deteriorates
http://www.unian.info/war/1072395-ato-militants-fire-grad-rockets-on-novolaspa-in-donetsk-region-situation-deteriorates.html … pic.twitter.com/wUsKOtZhHC

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukr servicemen in #Mariupol told Rada Vice Sp Syroid trade w/ #Russia needs b stopped, #OSCE is Rus-contrl @0629ComUa pic.twitter.com/qOujEMLiGV

Outside Pavlopil militant subversive groups made 2 attempts to break through, were repelled http://www.0629.com.ua/news/811377 pic.twitter.com/iMYXGMvQOP

Yesterday, Russian forces/militia made 6 assaults on #Shyrokyne near #Mariupol - All respulsed by Ukrainian Forces http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3623/pod_mariupolem_pytalas_prorvatsya_vrazheskaya_dive rsionnaya_gruppa.html …

Just what is Russia “hiding”—there have been rumors that there are far more Russian troops inside the Ukraine and that is what they are “hiding”.Geoffrey Pyatt ✔ @GeoffPyatt
SMM was prevented by the so-called "DPR" from freely accessing the eastern part of #Shyrokyne. http://goo.gl/6mKm0o pic.twitter.com/xBKSPsAwIy

#Russia's proxies fired Grad MRLS at #Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, at civilians in Novolaspa, #Donetsk region https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/988817717795701 …

[OUTLAW 09]

#News
Russian forces attacked #Shyrokyne, #Chermalyk & #Pavlopil w/ small arms, 82 and 120mm mortars as well as 152mm artillery pieces yday

ATO area situation report: #Mariupol. In anticipation of the spring-summer campaign (Information Resistance 28 Apr) https://translate.google.ie/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fsprotyv.info%2Fru%2Fnews%2Fsituaciy a-v-zone-ato-mariupolskoe-napravlenie-v-preddverii-vesenne-letney-kampanii&edit-text= …

Sabotage attack right out of the 60s USSF handbook—conducted on rail line inside Russia that leads to the Ukraine—UW is the way forward:
pic.twitter.com/ULcplLbd1F

We should no longer consider Russian lies a “'perspective'". A great piece by @areichardt: http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1568-propaganda-vs-information-policy …

Trolling for Putin: Russia's information war explainedhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E14XAjjb6Q …pic.twitter.com/iNEPjII9H5

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian information conflict is having a hard time responding to the US barrage of statements coming out of the DoS, US OSCE, and US NATO sources.

Hate to admit it DoS is slowly catching up with their own info war messaging--took over a year!.

So is Russia verifying they have AD systems in the Ukraine and are complaining the US cannot get the numbers and types correct?? What a strange why to respond to the US charges????

Flies literally in the face of massive social media videos and photos of Russian AD systems in the Ukraine.


© ITAR-TASS/Gennady Khamelyanin


MOSCOW, April 28. /TASS/. US statements about Russian air defense in eastern Ukraine have no grounds, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told TASS on Tuesday.

"US representatives did not have any documentary evidence of presence of our equipment and troops in south-eastern Ukraine. These bare words and statements are not backed by anything," Karasin said, commenting on US State Department’s statements about alleged presence of Russian air defense equipment in eastern Ukraine.

On Monday, US State Department spokesman Jeff Rathke said that "the Russian military has deployed additional air defense systems into eastern Ukraine and moved several of these nearer the front lines." "This is the highest amount of Russian air defense equipment in eastern Ukraine since August," Rathke added.

Russia has repeatedly denied such claims and said that all statements regarding alleged presence of Russian troops in Ukraine are groundless.

Moscow said that so far, no one produced any real evidence of Russian troops presence in Ukraine, despite the fact that Russian-Ukrainian border is constantly observed by Western special services, including from space. Most statements on Russia’s alleged interference in Ukrainian affairs are based on materials from the Internet, which cannot be considered as serious proof.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian information conflict is having a hard time responding to the US barrage of statements coming out of the DoS, US OSCE, and US NATO sources.

Hate to admit it DoS is slowing catching up with their own info war messaging--took over a year!.

So is Russia verifying they have AD systems in the Ukraine and are complaining the US cannot get the numbers and types correct?? What a strange why to respond to the US charges????

Flies literally in the face of massive social media videos and photos of Russian AD systems in the Ukraine.


© ITAR-TASS/Gennady Khamelyanin

Two items stand out in this TASS press release:

Moscow said that so far, no one produced any real evidence of Russian troops presence in Ukraine, (1) despite the fact that Russian-Ukrainian border is constantly observed by Western special services, including from space. Most statements on Russia’s alleged interference in Ukrainian affairs are (2) based on materials from the Internet, which cannot be considered as serious proof

1. Russia knows that the US has ISR assets literally parked over this portion of Russian and eastern Ukraine thus "knows" what they are "seeing" BUT are dying to get the US to release sat photos to judge the abilities of that ISR--AND even the open source sat photos have been rather revealing but notice Russia ignored those

2. of far more importance is the "Russian admission" that social media is getting it right and is impacting their info war abilities. otherwise they would have never referenced the internet

NOTICE the Russian info war messaging--this is out BUT does to respond to the Kerry/Lavrov telephone call that was just before this PR.

.@JohnKerry: I challenged Foreign Minister #Lavrov very directly with respect to the convoys, the OSCE inspectionshttp://goo.gl/5EdjrT

Kerry would not have challenged the Russian military convoys without ISR backup--just not the way DoS and DoD works since 9/11.

[OUTLAW 09]

One way to stop Russian non linear warfare activities dead in their tracks--think the Russian Navy got the "message"???

#Finnish navy has observed underwater activity in front of #Helsinki yesterday. Warned with depth charges. In Finnish. http://yle.fi/uutiset/merivoimat_havainnut_vedenalaisen_kohteen_helsingi n_edustalla/7958858 …

#Finland #Navy detected a potential underwater object [#submarine] inside Fin.waters. http://www.wsj.com/articles/finland-chases-off-suspected-submarine-1430212090 … pic.twitter.com/UvcASlbGNM

[OUTLAW 09]

.@JohnKerry: I challenged Foreign Minister #Lavrov very directly with respect to the convoys, the OSCE inspections http://goo.gl/5EdjrT

#OSCE_SMM spox: Yesterday for 3x in 4 days SMM prevented by so-called "DPR" from freely accessing eastern part of #Shyrokyne in E Ukraine

Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, April 28, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/GiPkGDfNgI

Possible sabotage UW operation as it is right across from the border
#Rostov rgn: Field ammo depot on fire photo @GirkinGirkin pic.twitter.com/d1mFaZW4Oq see https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/592949760899833856 …
View from Taganrog :) Russian Army ammo/fuel dump burning, western Rostov region 28 April(via @GirkinGirkin) pic.twitter.com/juZR8v237Q
Not only one huge explosion but several. Two mushroom clouds and smoke from some minor explosions before...

Russian army training area/staging post Kuzminka aka Golovinka or Vodino, Rostov region 27 April (via @GirkinGirkin) pic.twitter.com/1yJYiQaxVp

Also at Kuzminka aka Golovinka or Vodino, Rostov region 27 April (via @GirkinGirkin) pic.twitter.com/c1D83Km5Te Map: https://www.google.ie/maps/place/Kuzminka,+Rostovskaya+oblast%27,+Russia,+346836/@47.4341013,39.2507715,11556m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x40e3d8740fa4e727:0x606bc 361e55467c4

[OUTLAW 09]

Ammo depot somewhere in #Donbas @GirkinGirkin pic.twitter.com/sgnatuMA7Z

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian military build up fortifications near Artemivsk pic.twitter.com/wDiiEtUU6m

Ukrainian military manpower loses are climbing daily in this so called “ceasefire” since the shellings and ground attacks have reached pre Feb 2015 levels.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
1 Ukrainian servicemen KIA, 14 got wounded. Most casualties occurred near Avdiivka.
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian servicemen spotted 26 enemy UAVs

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Hotspots: Shyrokyne & Chermalyk – Mariupol sec; Avdiivka & Svitlodarsk –Donetsk sec; Shchastya, Zolote, Sokilnyky – Luhansk sec

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-RU fighters fired from 120mm mortars 18 times, from 122mm artillery – 6 times. Used tanks & anti-aircraft guns

10:09 #Russia @fhnfvjyrf: Yesterday heavy explosions were heard near #Novocherkassk, no info in local and federal media

In New Movie About Himself, Putin Lashes out Against Supposed US Support of Terrorists
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-april-27-2015/#8068 … pic.twitter.com/6iaCuX8qWv

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference massive Russian munitions depot explosion--some say it was an exploding shell-some say active sabotage operation with explosive devices in the ammo crates.

Russian Army ammunition dump explodes at #Kuzminka/#Golovinka training/staging area, Rostov region
pic.twitter.com/m8HdkyE7fC
youtube.com/watch?v=XDrAsVTK9Iw …

at least 30 vehicles destroyed, at least 3 soldiers KIA..according to reports

"It looks like DNR militants had active lifestyle at that range" http://goo.gl/zh2rO6 pic.twitter.com/nBINCqFf1m

BREAKING: Separatists training with Russian T-72's at Russian base in Kuzminka Rostov Ob. pic.twitter.com/kZ2PIVXCho"

Russian Army buildup at Kuzminka is actually closer to the village of Vodino, Rostov Ob. https://www.google.com/maps/@47.374972,39.2329045,2861m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en … pic.twitter.com/atVxWJdk1P

Huge concentration of troops on Ukraine border is becoming dangerous for Russia itself: explosions at Rostov mil base pic.twitter.com/JIgLqtlogJ

#BREAKINGNEWS
"AT LEAST 30 ARMY VEHICLES DESTROYED" IN EXPLOSION AT RUSSIAN ARMY BASE NEAR #TAGANROG.
Expect KIAs. pic.twitter.com/PvII21dPL3

AirbusDS GEO @AirbusDS_GEO
#Kuzminka, #Russia observed by our high-resolution satellite #Pléiades - http://www.astrium-geo.com/en/5751-image-detail?img=33534 … #GEOINT #GIS #IMINT pic.twitter.com/n6ifkU5lYA

[OUTLAW 09]

One way to stop Russian non linear warfare activities dead in their tracks--think the Russian Navy got the "message"???

#Finnish navy has observed underwater activity in front of #Helsinki yesterday. Warned with depth charges. In Finnish. http://yle.fi/uutiset/merivoimat_havainnut_vedenalaisen_kohteen_helsingi n_edustalla/7958858 …

#Finland #Navy detected a potential underwater object [#submarine] inside Fin.waters. http://www.wsj.com/articles/finland-chases-off-suspected-submarine-1430212090 … pic.twitter.com/UvcASlbGNM

More on the Russian sub that was detected of course it could have been Swedish, or Estonian??


Finland Commodore: bombs are not intended to damage target, purpose is to let target know that it has been noticedhttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/finnish-navy-fires-depth-charges-at-suspected-submarine-near-helsinki …

Finnish Navy detects unid'd underwater object near Helsinki, low-impact depth charges used. http://yle.fi/uutiset/finnish_navy_detects_unidentified_underwater_objec t_near_helsinki/7959699 … pic.twitter.com/vRlIJAWIE2

Finland MoD: After 2nd sighting "warning was given w/ light depth charges at 3 in the morning" pic.twitter.com/CStFbpXqYw

Could very well be those bloodthirsty Nazi Estonians whose sole 1934 submarine continues to be a threat to regional security

[OUTLAW 09]

Numbers-Stations.com @Spy_Stations
Websdr near Rostov 6990 someone is playing old soviet propaganda songs
http://websdr.net/

Kazakh Citizen Sentenced For Joining Russia-Backed Separatists In Ukraine http://www.rferl.org/content/kazakh-senteced-for-fighting-in-ukraine/26981110.html …

Vladimir Putin's favorite biker gang is the laughing stock of the Russian Internet today. https://meduza.io/en/lion/2015/04/28/vladimir-putin-s-favorite-biker-gang-is-the-butt-of-a-new-joke … pic.twitter.com/csb3gUh8cW

#Russian aid convoys couldn't reach #Ukraine. Poor RU proxies... Video http://empr.media/video/conflict-zone/some-of-russian-aid-convoys-couldn-t-reach-ukraine … pic.twitter.com/EWl7sok1h5

An interesting new study points to how Russia's cyberwarfare is increasingly coordinated with military warfare. http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconsidered/2015/04/28/402678116/report-to-aid-combat-russia-wages-cyberwar-against-ukraine

#Russia's media blame #Poland for 'becoming active in conflict in #Ukraine' http://belsat.eu/en/articles/russian-media-blame-poland-becoming-active-conflict-ukraine/ … pic.twitter.com/5hBlRUsufD

With Cash and Conspiracy Theories Russian Orthodox Philanthropist Malofeyev Useful to Kremlin http://www.interpretermag.com/with-cash-and-conspiracy-theories-russian-orthodox-philanthropist-malofeyev-is-useful-to-the-kremlin/ … pic.twitter.com/jgJb4PoQDW

Example of a poorly executed rail cut by a Russian sabotage team:
Railway track near #Odessa in #Ukraine was blown up today. Read more details at http://lugansk-news.com/railway-track-near-odessa-in-ukraine-was-blown-up-today/ … pic.twitter.com/kBCgC9b56H

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-gives-the-world-his-geography-lesson-all-the-former-ussr-is-russia/

Putin Gives the World His Geography Lesson: ‘All the Former USSR is Russia’

Paul Goble April 28, 2015


Staunton, April 27 -The 150-minute film The President about Vladimir Putin is mostly boring and predictable in that it insists that “without Vladimir Vladimirovich nothing in the country will work,” Kseniya Kirillova notes. But she points out that there are three “lessons” contained in the film that must not be ignored.

First, she argues, despite all the anti-Americanism he has promoted, Putin clearly indicates in the film that the model of the world order he would like to see is one in which Russia and the US would jointly decide all of the world’s “most important” geopolitical issues and divide up the world into “spheres of influence.” ”

While the Kremlin leader does not say so, this would be a return to what he now sees as the way the world worked between the Yalta and Potsdam conferences at the end of World War II and the time of Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika and one in which other countries, especially small ones, would have little or no voice about their fates.

Second, in the film, Putin offered the clearest indication yet that not only does he consider the disintegration of the USSR the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the last century but views it in a way that is absolutely at variance with the facts, one that points to more trouble ahead for all of the former Soviet republics and occupied Baltic states.

According to Putin, “all of us had illusions: it seemed then that after the destruction of the Soviet Union and after Russia voluntarily – I stress this – voluntarily and consciously” gave up its “own territory, productive capacity and so on, with the departure of the ideological component which separated the former Soviet Union and the entire rest of the civilized world, than now the fetters would fall and ‘freedom would great us joyously at the entrance.”

Such ideas have been circulating in the Moscow elite for some time, Kirillova says, pointing to a recent essay by Pavel Kazarin who noted that “in the consciousness of many representatives of the Russia elite, Moscow did not lose ‘the cold war.’ More than that, in their opinion, the division of the Union took place not so much as a result of the collapse of the Soviet model…but rather as a result of the Kremlin voluntarily agreeing to join the club of western players.”

As a result, Kazarin says, “Moscow conducts itself as if the Soviet Union had not fallen apart, as if it had only been reformatted but with relations between the vassals and sovereign retained in their former state.” (For a discussion of Kazarin’s argument and its implications, see Russia Looks in the Mirror and Sees the USSR.

In The President, Putin goes even further and declares that “Russia voluntarily gave up its own territories,” Kirillova says, an assertion so sweepingly at odds with reality that it is important to remember what actually happened 25 years ago.

“In fact,” Kirillova observes, “the present-day Russian Federation exists in the very same border that the RSFSR had; that is there were no territorial changes in Russia itself in connection with the collapse of the USSR. The republics which acquired independence after 1991 were never part of the RSFSR.”

From this it follows, she continues, “when Putin speaks about the territorial losses of Russia, he is directly declaring that all the former union republics are Russian territories! Note bene: he designates them already not as ‘zone of influence’…but as [his country’s] ‘own territory,’ from which Russia ‘voluntarily withdrew.”

That is simply an Orwellian retelling of what happened: In reality, “all the union republics, including even Ukraine and Belarus the closest to Russia, proclaimed their sovereignty in 1989-1990, that is, before 1991, and this phenomenon even received a name, ‘the parade of sovereignties.’”

There was nothing voluntary in Moscow’s response: It tried to crush Lithuania first by an economic blockade and then by the direct application of military force. But it failed to stop “the movement for exit from the USSR” that was “born in all the union republics.” As a result, after the failure of the August 1991 putsch, “the disintegration of the Union was inevitable.”

The Belavezha accords of December 8, 1991, usually seen as the death certificate of the USSR simply put on paper what had already taken place, a reminder that “even when these republics were in the USSR, none of them called themselves ‘Russia’s own territory.’” That is a Putinism that goes back to tsarist times.

And finally third, Putin’s film underscored how isolated Russia is in the former Soviet space, not how much the peoples and countries of that territory continue to look to Moscow as Vladimir Putin suggests they should. The only foreign leader who gets a positive reference in the film is Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev.

One might have expected there to be some reference to Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the leader of a country that is part of Putin’s union state of Russia and Belarus. But “obviously, the prospects of considering his country Russia’s territory do not generate any pleasure” with the Belarusian leader who has been distancing himself from Moscow over and as a result of Ukraine.

Putin’s “myth about the voluntary, carried out ‘from above’ demise of the USSR, which completely ignores the will of the peoples populating it, shows,” Kirillova concludes, “that the Kremlin has not drawn any conclusions from its collapse, and lessons which are not learned as is well known, have a tendency to be repeated.”

[OUTLAW 09]

More on the Russian sub that was detected of course it could have been Swedish, or Estonian??


Finland Commodore: bombs are not intended to damage target, purpose is to let target know that it has been noticed http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/finnish-navy-fires-depth-charges-at-suspected-submarine-near-helsinki …

Finnish Navy detects unid'd underwater object near Helsinki, low-impact depth charges used.http://yle.fi/uutiset/finnish_navy_detects_unidentified_underwater_objec t_near_helsinki/7959699 … pic.twitter.com/vRlIJAWIE2

Finland MoD: After 2nd sighting "warning was given w/ light depth charges at 3 in the morning" pic.twitter.com/CStFbpXqYw

Could very well be those bloodthirsty Nazi Estonians whose sole 1934 submarine continues to be a threat to regional security


Russia critiques #Finland report it used sounding charges against mystery sub. Finns never said Russian sub. Moscow a tad overly sensitive?


Finnish Navy's Chief of Staff: sensitive details of underwater encounter won't be disclosed. http://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/a1305951009983 … pic.twitter.com/RHCXx7cF39
#Finland #Navy today "continuous underwater contact for 1,5hours..." in our territorial waters.

[OUTLAW 09]

Great Russian videos of the massive explosion.

Russia Update: Dramatic Footage Of Blasts At Kuzminka Camp. http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-april-28-2015/#8080 … pic.twitter.com/x2cmuR7tSd

[OUTLAW 09]

16:45 #Avdeevka @bamr69: rumble again, heavy explosions in #Opytne.

19:23 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster: "it's getting especially noisy - loud rumbles. #Shumy? Yuzhna?"
@hdzerz: Smoke over Shumy

19:50 #Stakhanov @thisnameerror "There was such thing in #Stakhanov today http://www.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http://vpk-news.ru/sites/default/files/photographs/2012/05/17/VPIMG_035_1.JPG&imgrefurl=http://vpk-news.ru/photographs/gallery/729&h=2336&w=3504&tbnid=LfslaDqx5nfVVM:&zoom=1&tbnh=90&tbnw=135&usg=__9LgB_SSy4D3j8ogd7INiASEBXNc=&docid=3xIeKrmGXHElzM …"

18:56 #Schastya @HeleneHelene5 All Schastya check points have been just shelled w/120mm, dead and wounded, electricity down

18:11 #Donetsk Kyivsky ds @AlfaNubovsky:Sporadic outgoing mortar/artillery volleys, no explosions heard
@UrriKara4en:confirm

15:10 #Donetsk Chelyuskintsev→Mira, from the airport tow/#Makeevka 2 Kamaz, 5 Ural trucks + 7 Urals in 5 min

Latest from SMM, 27 April 2015: Summary Table of #Ceasefire Violations: http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/154041 …

Latest from SMM, 27.04: SMM observed that security situation around Donetsk airp. has seriously deteriorated. More: http://goo.gl/yvS4Hb

Military units have repaired 23,087 pcs of armament and military equipment since the beginning of ATO

Another verified EPA photo of the brand new 2S1 Gvozdika heavy artillery Russia send to Donetsk yesterday. pic.twitter.com/LR8Jwn8cTQ

Brand new self-propelled howitzers from #Russia arrived in #Donetsk City in #Ukraine yesterday
Verified photo by EPA
pic.twitter.com/UJHbkiJ5PS

#OSCE: "Situation around #Donetsk airport has seriously deteriorated", we heard 550 explosions 120mm mortar, heavy artillery rounds

Heavy Artillery On Streets Of Donetsk A Violation Of Minsk Agreements. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-435-huge-blast-at-russian-military-camp-used-for-invasion/#8078 … pic.twitter.com/p0wSmHbV5u

[OUTLAW 09]

Shellings, armored movements and ground attacks are now in the range of full warfare—still no comments from the Germans, French and the US---strange is it not?

Minsk 2 is dead.

@loogunda @thisnameerror I've seen lots and lots of reports abt LOTS of tracked vehicles/russian armor transiting Stakhanov in the last days

20:00 #Luhansk: Long vehicles column (10 min to pass) incl tanks went along #Bakhmutka track fr/Luhansk tow/#Zhovte
Giant #Russia vehicles column (10 min to pass) incl tanks left #Luhansk City to the west

#Lysychansk 20:28
Hearing battle. https://twitter.com/lis_ukrop/status/593104548857827331 …

19:52 #Stakhanov @thisnameerror:[today] lots of tracked vehicles went betw mil commissariat & Stroyhorodok, traces on asphalt

20:18 #Krasniy_Luch @falconua: "Today in shelling training they used also #Grad|s. There was no such things for a long

Camouflaged armor in Vodino, Russia, in proximity to Ukrainian border pic.twitter.com/Y2KErLfbQQ

OSCE Warns "Security Situation Around Donetsk Airport Has Seriously Deteriorated" http://bit.ly/1bAqD8H

Battle can be heard in #Ukraine held #Lysychansk in #Luhansk Region, - reports

#Ukraine Says Terrorists Are Firing Rocket Launchers Again http://nyti.ms/1PSFxpI

Former KGB Yuri Shvets claims Putin never worked as an intelligence officer. http://gordonua.com/news/politics/Byvshiy-sovetskiy-razvedchik-V-KGB-Putina-nazyvali-Okurkom-posle-Blednoy-Molyu-seychas-Botoksom-78150.html …

Russians shelled #Chermalyk today with mortars from 18:30 to 19:00. One civilian was killed. http://fb.me/1VoeOEyIN pic.twitter.com/4jSP4Kqe1m

Is there anything that Russians think isn't a false flag? Chernobyl wildfire called out as a provocation (seriously): http://news-front.info/2015/04/28/pozhar-v-zone-chaes-shantazh-i-provokaciya-dlya-evrosoyuza/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

From Interfax today--seems by stating Russian has had no AD systems in the Ukraine they seem to feel they cannot be blamed for the shot down of MH17.

BUT in fact social media has repeatedly shown videos and photos of Russian AD systems in the Ukraine to include their BUK that shot down MH17.

20:42 THERE NEVER WERE AND ARE NO RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS IN EAST UKRAINE - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY

Blatant falsehood on the part of the Russian MoD

[OUTLAW 09]

And it just keeps on ………and silence from the West

Salvos or explosions, seems to be from #Svetlodarsk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/28-april-salvos-or-explosions-seems-to-be-from-svetlodarsk …

#Analysis #Map
War in #Shyrokyne from the view of an Ukrainian forward fighting position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVL3GiOzmR4 … pic.twitter.com/aPBqA8e38Z

22:38 #Horlivka @cacab06: Rumble [from #Kurganka heard in 245th] block for about 1/2hr already
@123Brunhilda:'dull but heavy'

#Horlivka became noisy. In Bessarabka micro-ds there have been outbreaks.
10:43PM https://twitter.com/062_Region/status/593138435650625536 …

Traditional evening #UFO_safari/#ISS_hunting started in #Donetsk:
22:44 @gradigrad: "again shooting down UAV?"

22:51 #Horlivka @subwayriwer: "Start of first single #Uragan tow/#Dzerzhynsk?" w/intensifying cannonade in background

22:49 #Avdeevka @rechnikato: Local skirmishes close to the city all evening, seldom blasts, there was #Grad afternoon

#Footage
Regiment #Azov fires 82 mm mortars vs. Russian forces in #Shyrokyne.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQelefNpwPA …
pic.twitter.com/vgd6cUkzPo

Russian tanks in Sverdlovsk pic.twitter.com/UaF1rtQWGm http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/27-april-russian-tanks-in-sverdlovsk …

#Donetsk airport, #Pisky - incoming
11:01PM https://twitter.com/062_Region/status/593143008540884992 …

#Shyrokyno 28.04.2015 https://youtu.be/MVL3GiOzmR4
Fighting non-stop

Russia is using scare tactics in Ukraine — via @Stratfor http://read.bi/1bAJEHU pic.twitter.com/m1033fPQ5Q

#Horlivka very loud!
11:15PM https://twitter.com/SputnikATO/status/593146638425837570 …

[OUTLAW 09]

SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT as this is a typical Russian military move just prior to a general offensive--bringing in fresh attack troops as the last week's worth of mercenary ground attacks have gone nowhere against the resilient UA and volunteer BNs.

Tymchuk: new Russian army units entered Ukraine, including mechanized infantry (16 armoured fighting vehicles), 8 tanks & AA missile systems

[OUTLAW 09]

Azov commander Biletsky: Militants are preparing a breakthrough at #Shyrokyno
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FKKBx3xzYHI&edit-text= …

The Right Sector will hold a protest in Kyiv today in response to what they say is a govt plan to undermine Ukraine's volunteer battalions.

@Guderian_Xaba "85% of the fighters from the DUK base are those who held the front lines at #Pisky".

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian airborne troops on the move inside the Ukraine, Russian troops and heavy weapons moving across the border yesterday, countless shellings with MRLSs and heavy artillery in direct violation of Minsk 2, and large number of ground attacks---what do we have as responses from all of the western leaders silence--it is as if they are just hoping the whole thing will disappear and that there is no such thing as a Russo Ukraine war being fought in central Europe.

And that is leadership???

This below is considered a rather slow start for the day.

Heavy shelling near Donetsk airport and several villages, acc to @OSCE_SMM. Observers denied access to Shyrokyne. http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/154051 …

Rus proxies increased attacks in #Luhansk region: shelled Shchastia. Engagements near Krymske, Sokilnyky - governor http://moskal.in.ua/?categoty=news&news_id=1683

Ukrainian army claims almost 30 shooting incidents on Tuesday evening while #DPR reports about attacks by #Ukraine forces.

Locals report fierce fighting near Horlivka overnight
http://www.unian.info/war/1072912-locals-report-fierce-fighting-near-horlivka-overnight.html … pic.twitter.com/qNjiOGlzui

#Shyrokyno - Russians shelled Ukr positions at 3AM with 120mm mortars, then 1 hour later started shooting w machine guns and sniper rifles.

At 4:30AM explosion on Olenivka-Yuzhnodonbasskaya railway at km 1168, causing a 5m deep, 15m diameter crater. https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/593316593205157889 …

Terrorists still use Grad against Ukraine’s govt forces
#Ukraine #news #army
http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/04/29/terrorists-still-use-grad-against-ukraines-govt-forces/ …

Terrorists still use Grad against Ukraine’s govt forces
#Ukraine #news #army
http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/04/29/terrorists-still-use-grad-against-ukraines-govt-forces/ …

#Russia's proxies launched Grad at Ukr positions near Avdiivka. Attacked and were repelled near Sokilnyky, Luhansk r https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts

ATO: Militants attack Ukrainian troops 29 times overnight, one civilian killed
http://www.unian.info/war/1072902-ato-militants-attack-ukrainian-troops-29-times-overnight-one-civilian-killed.html … pic.twitter.com/Pv8cvolhxe

#Shakhtarsk 10:25
2 Urals and 2 BMP with Russian fighters towards #Torez, flying VDV flags w bat (RU airborne spec) https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/593315841858531328 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Shellings and especially ground assaults are rapidly increasing today—still silence out of German and France—the two in the EU that pushed for Minsk 1 and 2 seem to be abandoning them now They pushed for Minsk 2 in order to avoid placing more sanctions on Russia and the US from sending TOWs to the Ukraine---now the silence on their part is interesting.


Long line of vehicles trying to leave embattled #Horlivka, towards Artemivsk

Ceasfire ends in separatist-held #Horlivka. Rus-backed forces firing towards #Ukrainian-held Dzherzhinsk, locals say http://www.06242.com.ua/article/812448

IS THIS REAL?!
"Russian army BTR-80A and T-72BM invade #Donetsk city last night"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2d-yvqF9ZYw … pic.twitter.com/EXENYazVau
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/593155273692446721 …

#Analysis #Map
Spanish volunteer at the taken over Ukrainian army position along the #Avdeevka railway.
As you can.. pic.twitter.com/IpOC4CigmE

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, April 29, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/nSDiQnCpEM

#LPR attacked #Ukraine Army positions near #Tryokhizbenka. 3 soldiers wounded.
http://lugansk-news.com/terrorists-of-lpr-attacked-ukrainian-army-positions-near-tryokhizbenka/ … pic.twitter.com/PQlBfC7OJB @LUGANSK_TODAY

Battle this morning at #Trohizbenka, 3 Ukrainian soldiers WIA, 2 serious.
http://moskal.in.ua/?categoty=news&news_id=1684 …

..see the main bunker installation with view holes is still directed towards the south (Spartak).
Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwNIuPbXyxQ …

[OUTLAW 09]

More rewriting of Stalin’s action in the Ukraine that led to over 3M plus dead Ukrainians in what some call a genocide which even now the “Russian fascist” Dugin actually preaches in Moscow and at Texas A&M where he is giving a presentation on “The Destruction of Liberalism” at the invitation of the American Nazi Party and supported by the university.

Well-reported story by Andrew Kramer on the whitewashing of Holodomor as history in east Ukraine is rewritten: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/30/world/europe/ukraine-separatists-rewrite-history-of-1930s-famine.html?ref=world …

NOTICE--here is a core problem with western media right now--they cannot even get the words right thus lending indirect/direct support to Russia that "New Russia" is not part and parcel of the Ukraine--in this particular article the writer used the term militia which gives it a "legal sound" when in effect they are at the least "militants and or simply proxy mercenaries" which they are if one attempts to "putsch" against the legal government ie Ukraine and when you are being supported by an outside nation. Many western mainstream media outlets actually simply take over the Russian English press releases as the "truth" and never really fact check them.

Russian biker gang Night Wolves is still trying to enter the EU—they are still angry at Poland for having searched their personal effects and then turning them away at the border as they did not have valid visas. As Russians they assumed they could go anywhere they wanted evidently without visas.
Russian bikers continue their attempts to enter Lithuania without proper documents http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/transport/?doc=105592 …

Sevastopol and #Simferopol left without a reserve reservoir of water http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/29-april-sevastopol-and-simferopol-left-without-a-reserve … pic.twitter.com/LbhPbA1EWM via @Dbnmjr

Last rally for united #Ukraine in #Donetsk last year - 28 Apr2014, many were violently beaten by Russian thugs https://www.facebook.com/diana.hmm.

[OUTLAW 09]

Wow ...
The Russian occupation army in #Sevastopol moves heavy equipment.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz44_-T_PC4 …
#Crimea #Ukraine

SBU continues anti-terror op in #Odessa, 12 more people detainedhttps://twitter.com/ServiceSsu/status/593362592950841344 …

Russian military vehicles in Kerch, Occupied Crimea http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/29-april-russian-military-vehicles-in-kerch-occupied-crimea … pic.twitter.com/0xeY19xthZ via @krymrealii

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
“White Berets” train military medical instructors who will teach soldiers to provide first aid pic.twitter.com/dswNQbgl7K

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Workers of Kharkiv tank plant recovered another batch of T-64 tanks. They were sent to our troops.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Russia launches another information offensive vs Ukraine. Fabricated @MFA–Ukraine announcement about U.S. instructors dated 2014.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian servicemen spotted 27 enemy UAVs. Also observed RU MI-8 helicopter over border with occupied Crimea

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Other hotspots: airport area & western edges of Horlivka. Luhansk sec –Shchastya, Krymske, Sokilnyky

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Hotspots: Pavlopil & Chermalyk. No record of attacks at Shyrokyne in Mariupol sec

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Militants also used tanks and snipers against Ukrainian Armed Forces. Our troops repelled every enemy provocation.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-Russian insurgents fired at UA positions from 120mm mortars 22 times; from 122mm artillery – 5 times

[OUTLAW 09]

There appears to be now a very active Ukrainian sponsored UW ops ongoing against Russian targets as well as Russian mercenary targets,

1. an attack this week on a mercenary depot destroying armored vehicles.
2. multiple rail cuts in the rail line systems supplying the Russian mercenaries and the Russian Army
3. massive explosion yesterday at a extremely large Russian ammo depot located in Rostov close to the Ukrainian border.


#News
4th sabotage blast on rails in Russian-held #Donbas damages tracks near #Olenivka.
http://informator.lg.ua/?p=88159 pic.twitter.com/vtppdc6ePP

[OUTLAW 09]

Who knew that #Putin ordered full mobilization of #Russia's armed forces on June 27th?
pic.twitter.com/UeWgWNEKS1

Another video on the massive explosion yesterday at a Russian ammo depot. VIDEO Explosion at #Russia(n) Military training range #Rostov destroy 30 vehicles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hlQAYg_jc0 … pic.twitter.com/Yni5MRiWYR

Military convoy in Crimea http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/29-april-military-convoy-in-crimea … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/TIToEyDfMJ via @CrimeaUA1

VIDEO #Putin mercenaries "Sparta" ("Motorola") unit training #Donetsk #Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-DSLoqzUrE … pic.twitter.com/FdKHJbHrfc

VIDEO #Russia(ns) Shelling #Ukraine positions #Shyrokyne near #Mariupol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZ7GYg9p5BI …

Great read although in Russian:
"Why are Russians killing us?" #Debaltsevo ex-businessman/now IDP asks the Q every Ukrainian has on mind.A must-read http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/26972620.html …

Close encounters: @WSJ map of confrontations between #Russia and its Baltic neighbours: http://www.wsj.com/articles/baltic-neighbors-gird-against-russia-1430280062 … pic.twitter.com/NLAFkaIsF8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXVeIe6QnBQ … #Russian on 'idea-driven' #Ukrainians who refuse to surrender. #Ukraine #Russia #ISIS #ISIL pic.twitter.com/P9hJos4szG

Extremely interesting if true as the Chechens are the largest single foreign fighter group in eastern Ukraine:

"Kadyrov ordered his mercenaries to withdraw from Donbass, after conflicts with #Zakharchenko" https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/593388419235094528 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Actually well worth the reading as many think this scenario is highly possible in the coming months.

http://en.delfi.lt/opinion/opinion-the-russians-are-coming-to-occupy-the-baltic-states.d?id=67841870#ixzz3YhxXzCp1

PART ONE of this article

Opinion: The Russians are coming to occupy the Baltic states

Marius Laurinavičius,

Rytų Europos studijų centras

Wednesday, April 29, 2015


I purposefully chose a title for my piece to evoke the notorious phrase from 1949 by the then US Secretary of Defense, James Forrestal: "The Russians are coming. The Russians are coming. They’re right around. I’ve seen Russian soldiers."

In 1966, "The Russians are coming" was even used as a title for Norman Jewison's comedy film while in politics the phrase has become a by-word for any unfounded threat-mongering. One should note, however, that it was in 1949 that NATO was founded - and for no other reason than to counter the Soviet threat. This alone indicates that whatever one thinks of Forrestal's words, the threat they expressed was taken seriously. And this serious assessment might have been what helped prevent the potential threat from becoming very real.

This point has become relevant again, especially for the Baltic states. The shocking but far from unrealistic title is my attempt to make the point that Russia's threat has transitioned from a theoretical issue to a very practical one, which calls for an adequate response, not unlike in 1949.

Back in 1949, NATO leaders did not stop at political commitments of Article Five - very soon impressive American forces were deployed in West Germany which at the time was the borderline between NATO and Warsaw Pact camps.

As RAND Corporation analyst F. Stephen Larrabee has aptly noted recently, Vladimir Putin's regime is, in many respects, even more dangerous than the Soviet Union. In many respects, the West has already been caught unprepared.

Plans discussed in the open

What supports my point about the Russian threat becoming practical rather than merely theoretical is an article by Russian political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko entitled "Redemptive Ransom" (Искупительный выкуп). In it, he argues for the inevitability of "preventive occupation of the Baltic states" in the vital interest of the Kremlin and Russia.

The problem is that, both in the Baltic states and the West, this analytical piece by Ishchenko received less attention than it warrants, even if we were to dismiss it as pseudo-analysis.

I am convinced that this public analysis of the necessity for preemptive occupation of the Baltic states deserves as much, if not more, scrutiny than Russian Ambassador Miklail Vanin's nuclear threats to Denmark (over its intention to join NATO's anti-missile defence shield) or an even more serious nuclear blackmail by retired Russian generals at the Elbe Group meeting.

I will argue that Ishchenko's analysis, which was made public, is not some absurd blather by a small-time analyst (as many in the West and the Baltic states probably think), but rather a consequential first step in Russia's political preparation for aggression against Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

I'd like to emphasise that were this just one more public threat by the likes of Vladimir Zhirinovsky to sweep the Baltic states off the face of the earth, I would not lose any sleep over it nor waste time to try to explain my take on the present danger.

A recurrent pattern

I have already written, back in November, about why I think that the Baltic states are under a threat of a conventional military attack rather than some hybrid warfare. I argued that this scenario was very realistic and I could only reiterate my arguments now.

However, the threat has grown more serious since then and has transcended the merely theoretical guise precisely because Ishchenko's article represents the first instance of Russia discussing occupation of the Baltic states in public and presenting arguments why it is an inevitable outcome of Putin's regime pursuing its interests.

Even if we chose to ignore the name of the author of this analysis or agreed that he is unknown and inconsequential (which he is not), we'd still have to agree that this new public debate is a signal that Russia is entering the new stage, making a step from formulating a policy idea to carrying it out.

A more sustained analysis of contemporary Russia suggests one inevitable conclusion: despite the perceived closed character of this country (it is not true - one can find out many things about Russia from public sources, given consistent analysis), the first stage in any project it embarks on always begins with "information preparation".

One can easily ascertain that this was the case before the annexation of Crimea or Russia's aggression against Ukraine in general. This was also the pattern of the campaign against oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky which ended in his imprisonment. There are more examples, but these should be enough to make the point.

[OUTLAW 09]

PART TWO or previous article:



Whose ideas are these?

But even if we agree that the onset of a public discussion about the necessity of Baltic occupation alone is a sufficient sign of threat, we should still look closer at the author of this analysis. Ishchenko is neither someone unknown nor inconsequential, although he used to be presented as a Ukrainian political analyst rather than Russian.

To better understand whose ideas he is voicing, we only have to look at the platforms that publish his analyses and other experts he shares his bylines with. In Russia, it is hardly a secret that Ishchenko is a close associate of the "Izborsk Club" and an expert on its ideas.

He is therefore far from a lone voice. He is a spokesman for well-known figures like Alexander Dugin, Alexander Prokhanov, retired General Leonid Ivashov and Russian politicians who stand behind them: Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, President Putin's administration chief Sergey Ivanov and the like.

From analysis to action

To return to Ishchenko's piece itself, it is important to note that his analysis is a herald of a campaign very similar to the one that preceded the attack on Ukraine. Deducing from this pattern, we should expect to see more analyses like that appearing on public platforms, after which Putin will receive a classified policy paper on his desk, drafted by some Russian strategic research institute or a thinktank, with an authoritative analysis urging to take tangible action - much like in the case of Crimean annexation or aggression in eastern Ukraine.

At this point, Putin's decision will probably depend solely on the balance of power within Russia's political elite or perceived costs of such an adventure.

Granted, the Russian political elite is still far from united even on the issue of the government's massive military spending amidst general economic strain. The budget for defence, rearming and modernizing the army could be an important indication of Russia's aggressive plans.

One must admit that the so-called Russian liberals, represented in this case by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov or even Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, keep insisting that Russia can hardly afford the planned military spending. Even Russia's Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies said in its report that Russia's rearmament programme was in crisis.

Bearing this in mind - as well as the divergence of views on the future of Moscow's involvement in Ukraine even within the Russian elite - there is not enough evidence to suggest that these intentions regarding the Baltic states (attributable to Rogozin, Ivanov, the entire Russian military-industrial complex behind their backs and their mouthpiece, the Izborsk Club) will necessarily be implemented. However, we must acknowledge the threat and react accordingly.

Moreover, both the precedent of the Ukraine war and Putin's refusal to cut military spending even in the face of deteriorating economic situation and against the advice of government liberals in charge of economy, are a good indication of who has been winning similar battles in Russia and who has the balance of power tipped in their favour.

Political commitment is not enough

It is important to note that even when Ishchenko discusses the possible consequences of "preventive occupation of the Baltic states" for Russia, not once does he say that what might impede the plan is the Baltic membership in NATO.

Such conspicuous disregard for NATO's security guarantees under Article Five, something that has been much talked about in the West (and I personally do not doubt them), serves only to confirm my oft-expounded argument that as long as NATO's guarantees are not backed by adequate deployment of troops and weaponry, they will not be taken seriously in Moscow.

Quite the opposite - Ishchenko's analysis suggests that at least those groups of the Russian elite that nurture bellicose plans regard the Western powers as not strong or decisive enough to ever dare to defend the Baltic states. Especially in the face of a threat of nuclear stand-off with Russia.

Therefore bearing in mind that political preparations for aggression against the Baltics - or at least political struggle within Russia's power groups over it - have already started, the only way to truly guarantee security of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and prevent a serious challenge to the very existence of NATO is to urgently deploy allied forces sufficient not just to deter Russia, but to actually defend the Baltic states.

Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves's recent public statements should be viewed in precisely this light: he said that symbolic NATO presence in the Baltics and political guarantees of Article Five were no longer enough.

Meanwhile the Baltic states themselves must insist in a united and loud voice on the necessity to deploy abundant and well-armed allied forces on their soil - at the same time as they mobilize their own resources in proportion to the seriousness of the present situation.

Marius Laurinavičius is senior analyst with the Vilnius-based Eastern Europe Studies Centre.

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference PART TWO or previous article:

This article is not that far fetched as one might think.

1. #BalticSea coastal states bolster defense as #Russia takes forwrd #military stance http://www.wsj.com/articles/baltic-neighbors-gird-against-russia-1430280062 … pic.twitter.com/uBobjZ6DXC

2. Sweden is reestablishing their military base on Gotland a strategic island in the Baltic that Russia has shown unusual interest in via their recent Baltic recon overflights and sea patrols. The island has a well established airfield on it capable of handling jet fighters.

[OUTLAW 09]

Latest from @OSCE_SMM: Fighting around #Donetsk airport, #Shyrokyne. Military movmnt on both sides of contact line http://bit.ly/1JSK7k4

Interesting National Public Radio report on #Russia's hacking war against #Ukraine's security forces: http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconsidered/2015/04/28/402678116/report-to-aid-combat-russia-wages-cyberwar-against-ukraine …

NEW ARTICLE OUT NOW
Silent Advance Part III – Russian forces advance towards Avdeevkahttp://conflictreport.info/2015/04/29/silent-advance-part-iii-russian-forces-advance-towards-avdeevka/ … pic.twitter.com/FrVH3evnjK

Defence Ministry claims OSCE mission failing to report all attacks on Ukrainian forces
http://www.unian.info/war/1073191-defence-ministry-claims-osce-mission-failing-to-report-all-attacks-on-ukrainian-forces.html … pic.twitter.com/MRyqbCgy3P

AND there is no Russian Orthodox Church “Holy War” against the West—read carefully and inhale just what he is saying???
Kirill's treatment of 'Russophobia' draws numerous parallels between the West and Nazism. http://www.interfax-religion.ru/?act=documents&div=1259 … pic.twitter.com/73tr9L16rg

This, the full text of Kirill's doctrine of 'Russophobia' demands very careful attention. http://www.interfax-religion.ru/?act=documents&div=1259 … pic.twitter.com/Qd5vqWT17W

Thought provoking article in Swedish---
Analyst: Russia engaged in war against The West. The West does not perceive it. Europe living in a Pre-War Period http://mobil.dn.se/kultur-noje/kulturdebatt/ryssland-ar-redan-i-krig-med-vast/ …

Massive amounts of heavy weapons supplied by Russia to her mercenaries and yet Russia still claims "it ain't us".
890 #Russia|n heavy weapons provided to Donbas proxies Oct 30th - Dec 9th.
The US & @NATO provided NONE.
pic.twitter.com/bOJqm6bMOw

How #Russia is looking to force concessions from a war-ravaged #Ukraine: http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_ukraines_economic_pressures3008 … pic.twitter.com/HUPo2cKkz0

Another fake of #Russia's #propaganda, spread by none other than #Lisitsa, infamous for her ethnic hatred & racism. pic.twitter.com/mH5vchNABf

#Picture
Battalion OUN captured 2 people on suspicion of being spies.
They reported troop movements to the "DNR". pic.twitter.com/EYns6HpRwi

[OUTLAW 09]

This evenings normal Russian army and her mercenary shellings seems to be behind schedule--unusual.

Although it appears that the fresh round of mercenary ground attacks have slowed down mainly because they took beatings--the major question remains as in the past when the mercenaries were failing WHEN will regular Russian army units come into the fighting??

Poroshenko: Info that Russia is planning a 3rd invasion of Ukraine within 3 weeks.... http://24today.net/open/394407

Poroshenko warns about possible full-scale offensive by militants in second half of May http://www.unian.info/politics/1073222-poroshenko-warns-about-possible-full-scale-offensive-by-militants-in-second-half-of-may.html … pic.twitter.com/oYbiIeCLNU

Tanks continue to enter Donetsk from Russia.....
http://24today.net/open/390211

If true that more heavy armor has come recently into the Ukraine the Russian mercenaries are now capable of launching assaults on five NATO countries whose militaries are actually far weaken than the Ukraine.

And since silence is what we hear from the West and NATO they must be comfortable with this development??

[OUTLAW 09]

Shellings, fighting and now another report of Ukrainian guerrilla attacks.

#Analysis #Map
#Rus & #Ukr forces trade artillery fire in #Shyrokyne.
Chechens in the middle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p2YvsFbo5k … pic.twitter.com/nYpQyXXSSr

#Donetsk 22:48
Kalinovka - BTR, 4x KAMAZs, vans and cars at high speed from Makiivka towards west

#Shakhtarsk 21:50
4 russian Urals and 2 BTRs towards #Donetsk. https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/593489421636378624 …

East #Ukraine frontlines update: Militants continue shelling Ukrainian positions http://uatoday.tv/news/east-ukraine-frontlines-update-militants-contniue-shelling-ukrainian-positions-424469.html …

#News
Also tonight, #Azov reports heavy fighting in #Shyrokyne.
There is ongoing battle at #Shyrokyne 10km from Mariupol's eastern edge. We know of no major assault. "Azov" bravely repels Russian attacks.

@Guderian_Xaba Hearing "on sources" Ukr partisans are in Horlivka now, waiting more info abut this explosion, it was a big one

#Dzerzhynsk 22:50
Powerful blast heard from #Horlivka https://twitter.com/blessmaster/status/593503171730780160 …

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: US MISSION TO NATO DEPUTY: "NATO WILL "TAKE ACTION" IF GREEN MEN APPEAR IN MOLDOVA" http://www.mediafax.ro/externe/oficial-sua-nato-va-actiona-daca-apar-omuleti-verzi-in-republica-moldova-statele-pot-reactiona-individual-14179834 …

Putin’s ‘Kadyrov Problem’ Coming to a Head at Home and Abroad http://bit.ly/1JTu0m6 pic.twitter.com/2aDrEsg8V1

VIDEO #Ukraine building fortifications near #Mariupol include (HESCO) armored bunkers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sw5AKRqq8uI … pic.twitter.com/a8tdFdu6QL

Tass: Night Wolves came to Poland through Czech Republic.
Teleport? pic.twitter.com/zewzmLf5JN

Russian (Naval intelliegence) GEOLOG DMITRIY NALIVKIN survey vessel off SW Ireland, somewhere? http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:350870/mmsi:273454700/vessel:8119039

…VIDEO #Ukraine SBU detained organizers of the so-called "#Kiev People's Republic"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkfNIirW4Z4 … #Russia pic.twitter.com/n3EXsQwqQY

Russian soldier from Ufa at Donbas pic.twitter.com/V5GAqpgYK9 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/29-april-russian-soldier-from-ufa-at-donbas …

#NATO: Over 1000 pcs of #Russia military equip (tanks, artillery &anti-aircraft weapons) have been moved into #Ukraine in the last 30 days

[OUTLAW 09]

Has anyone noticed that out of the US, EU, NATO and especially Germany and France absolutely nothing is being said about what can now be termed a strong really strong mini offensive if not the beginning of a general offensive.

NATO confirms along with UA intel over 1000 armored vehicles into the Ukraine just in the last month alone and Russian troops are crossing even this week when all of their troop rotations had in theory been completed so they are boosting their troop levels--remember the Russian war doctrine dictates a massive attack force of three max four to one and they are shy of getting that over count in place.

TOWs/MILANs are flooding into Syria and are being handled by both moderate Syrians as well as Islamists BUT nothing to the Ukraine-does that make any sense to anyone. AND are making a difference against armor and bunkers.

@Guderian_Xaba In Luhansk reg. the Ukr pos. near Shchastya shelled w 82mm mortars. On Stanitsa Luhanska fired w AA-guns, AGLs, small arms.

#Donetsk Proletarka @DoneckiiPatriot
05:42 Small arms again
05:48 Loud single explosions and small arms from 5:27

#Donetsk
05:35 center @papandopoolo Dim rumble, distant small arms and regular single heavy eplosions

@Guderian_Xaba Around midnight there was a clash near Zaitsevo. Also in the evening on Apr 29 in Donetsk reg. recorded 6 enemy drones.

@Optyne and #Avdiivka shelled w 122-mm artillery. Lozovoe, Luhanske and Troitske was under small arms fire.

#Donetsk
05:31 center @papandopoolo single far heavy rumbles
05:33 @levzeja Shooting non-stop, double volleys in Proletarka

ATO presser: #Pisky, #Avdiivka, #Zaitsevo and #Shyrokyne was shelled in the evening w 120mm and 82mm mortars.

#Donetsk
05:28 @14720Maro: battle in DMZ-Budenovka direction - tanks, small arms
@Donetsk_Ukraine: small arms, MG &like tank
#donbasreports

05:26 #Donetsk Budenovsky ds, VAZ area @UrriKara4en: Active small arms skirmish.
@HuNeHu: Heard even in the center

#Donetsk 5:28AM
Metallurgical Plant - Budennovka area there is a real war. Tanks, automats, machine guns. https://twitter.com/14720Maro/status/593602672583901184 …

#Avdeevka @rechnikato
01:05am Rumble, both volley & explosion heard, MRLS was not used today
01:09 Closer&heavier +small arms

#Donetsk 7AM
Heavy singles again. https://twitter.com/DoneckiiPatriot/status/593626568876019712 …

#Donetsk 5:33AM
What's going on at Proletarka? Almost non-stop machine gun shooting, double loud bangs. Noisy night https://twitter.com/levzeja/status/593604149327036417 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Two things stand out today that makes one wonder just where the heads are of the western leaders the US, NATO, EU especially France and Germany.

ONE:

100 Ukrainian military killed, over 500 wounded since ceasefire declared on Feb. 15http://24today.net/open/395021

Is not the term "ceasefire" meaning no firing? THEN how are 100 Ukrainian killed and over 500 wounded IF there is no firing???

Now at least the Russians would argue the Ukrainians are shelling themselves or they were standing in the wrong place and time BUT silence from the West means exactly what again???

TWO:

Concluding what we have known for a long time: "U.S. Now Sees Russia As Directing Rebels In Ukraine" http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-us-says-directing/26986417.html … via @RFERL

This begs a simple question just why did it take the US government ie the US intel community and the White House so long to come to the same mindset as the world of social media that has been stating this apparent fact since the Russian invasion first with the mercenaries and then actual troops in June 2014--where they literally all out to lunch for over a year??? What is all those billions of dollars spent on the intel community getting us--nothing it seems?

Silence and no action are not parts of a strategy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Now that at least the US government ie the White House agrees that Russia is directly directing the eastern Ukraine war now can they call it finally an "invasion" not an incursion and can they finally release all of their ISR products to finally "show the world actual Russian involvement and Russian viiolations of the Minsk 2 agreement".

The social media side is getting a tad worn out carrying the proof of evidence burden that western countries and their leaders should be doing on a daily basis.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Hotspots: Donetsk airport area, esp. Pisky, and northern edges of Horlivka. UA troops clashed with militants by Zaytseve.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Fighting resumed in Shyrokyne in Mariupol sector. Most ceasefire violations occur during the night.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-Russian militants violate ceasefire: used 120mm mortars 17 times; twice 122mm artillery

Ukrainian Military Reports 26 Attacks Last Night. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-437-ukraine-reports-26-attacks-last-night/#8105 …

VIDEO #Russia Victory day rehearsal show its priority new weapons,outdated ambulance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZfhUopeRKk … pic.twitter.com/MMFc2bACJ5

Tymchuk: Militants actively training in residential areas of Donetsk
http://www.unian.info/war/1073439-tymchuk-militants-actively-training-in-residential-areas-of-donetsk.html … pic.twitter.com/MGdWRIODtS

Tymchuk: The russians moved from #Donetsk (#Spartak) to #Yasynuvata a tank unit: 18 tanks, 4 covered trucks, 2x BMP http://www.hromadske.tv/society/boioviki-vidpravili-tankovii-pidrozdil-do-yasinuva/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed …

VIDEO #Russia(n) artillery shelln #Ukraine Chechen Batt position beachfront #Shyrokyne https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sebMrQEXRp4 … #Minsk pic.twitter.com/fK60aAJKvV

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears the Ukrainian guerrilla units are stating to kick in with their attacks on Russian mercenaries and Russian troops.

There have been six recorded rail cuts on rail lines providing direct Russian rail resupplies from Russia to their troops and mercenaries with one of the rail cuts being actually in the Rostov area, two sabotage acts against Russian mercenary munitions and equipment storage areas also in occupied territory and the sabotage attack against an extremely large Russian munitions and fuel depot at a large Russian training base for personnel and mercenaries headed to the Ukraine along the border to the Ukraine near Rostov.

[OUTLAW 09]

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, April 30, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/vdBereZ92P

11:56 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca: We hear explosions for 3 hours now rising then falling. Like #Hranitne is under fire

#Footage
Russian forces in #Perevalsk are setting a whole forest on fire during their D-30 and tank drills.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta4DdFZPS0Q …
#Ukraine

#Makeevka 12:46
Center - rumble, similar to BMP or zushek (AA-gun, ZU-23) firing. https://twitter.com/OldHistoric/status/593712994124718080 …

#Donetsk 12:07
Bud'onivs'kyi ds - 15mins ago very loud from Proletarsky, like grenade launcher working, small arms https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/593708983589941248 …

VIDEO #Perevalsk Cossaks are firing D-30 guns breaking Minsk agreements.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta4DdFZPS0Q …
pic.twitter.com/K2W7PYZR0u

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian police uncovered illegal arms arsenal in Kharkiv & Khmelnytskyy: sniper rifles, RPGs, grenades, TNT pic.twitter.com/Sz70fV9J0g

[OUTLAW 09]

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
UA counter-intelligence detained members of the subversives network in Dnipropetrovsk. They attempted to recruit new forces in the region.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
SBU eliminated Internet society that spread anti-Ukrainian propaganda and called to create so-called “Kyiv People’s Republic”

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian policemen 2 “LPR” insurgents near Karbonit village and Lysychansk, Luhansk region. One surrendered voluntarily

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
31 towns in Donetsk region completely lost power supply. Partially cut off Donetsk, Avdiivka, Horlivka, Horlivka, Debaltseve, Vuhlehirsk
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Militants opened massive fire at Ukrainian military positions near Shchastya & Sokilnyky in the Luhansk sector

[OUTLAW 09]

Nothing like geo tagging a Russian tank firing on Ukrainian positions via satellite---where are the US ISR products to match social media?????

#Russia(n) tank firing on #Ukraine troops #Artemivsk geolocated via @mistegeolocator https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/48%C2%B025%2703.5%22N+38%C2%B003%2740.7%22E/@48.4159299,38.0594928,737m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0 … pic.twitter.com/PVH3KzWuiR

Great piece by @Judy_Dempsey on how OSCE monitors are powerless to stop Russian fighters entering Ukraine https://twitter.com/Judy_Dempsey/status/593718226028204033 …

Suspected Russian ‘DNR' saboteur tortured Ukrainian soldiers: Security Service
http://uatoday.tv/crime/suspected-russian-lsquo-dnr-rsquo-saboteur-tortured-ukrainian-soldiers-security-service-424580.html … pic.twitter.com/w0W5QNF1IU

Now Russia starts up her alert/exercise cycle again:
TASS ✔ @tassagency_en
Russia's Northern Fleet holds large-scale drills http://tass.ru/en/russia/792613

Seems the Russian mercenaries need recruits—
DNR ‘judges’ releasing criminals from prisons
http://www.unian.info/society/1073477-dnr-judges-releasing-criminals-from-prisons.html … pic.twitter.com/XEo8D4YWO2

12:46 #Makeevka the center @OldHistoric "We can hear loud bursts, it sounds like BMP or AA-guns".

[OUTLAW 09]

For those in DC and in the EU, NATO AND especially France and Germany--it is hard to think that they themselves believe Putin is going to stop after Crimea and eastern Ukraine--they all need to really rethink that position......

He is set in testing the EU, NATO and the Us in order to achieve his three geo political end states.

1. discrediting and damaging the EU
2. discrediting and damaging NATO
3. disconnecting the US totally from Europe thus allowing Russia the hegemon status over Europe that it has all sought

Russian shifts to hybrid warfare now against Poland which it views as basically being anti Russian.
Disinfo sowing mistrust. Shadowy FB pages.
Excellent piece.
Russia’s Hybrid War Against Poland
@edwardlucas
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=43851&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=513dea6e2da23e276d6cc8d3f1d08451#.VUH9VtEQwI z.twitter

[OUTLAW 09]

We are just a few days to a general Russian offensive and yet we only hear the NATO SG and the SACEUR talk about it--nothing at all from the White House and the NSC.

AND absolutely nothing from France and Germany.

#Ukraine Army reports about 50 #Russia attacks on the defense line between midnight and 6 pm. New record since #Minsk2!!!

We've had widening civ-mil gap between WH & EUCOM over #Ukraine for some time. SACEUR's comments on RU moves in #Ukraine are the next phase.

U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce
#OSCE UAVs document buildup of forces, incl. tanks, in #Russia-backed sep held areas - READ: http://1.usa.gov/1GJYqKh pic.twitter.com/1XynByqNIo

Top American NATO commander: We don't know what Putin is thinking or what he'll do next http://read.bi/1EvNFaS pic.twitter.com/vPR901E85p

NATO suspects that Russia is preparing an offensive in Donbas pic.twitter.com/AW8huJgjY2 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/30-april-nato-suspects-that-russia-is-preparing-an-offensive

#NATO SACEUR warns of threat to Ukraine: Russian forces actions "consistent with preparations for another offensive." http://eucom.mil/media-library/article/33031/senate-armed-services-committee-opening-statement-by-general-phil-breedlove-commander-u-s-european …

[OUTLAW 09]

Shellings and ground attacks are increasing massively over the last three days.

Shelling in Donbas increases in frequency on Thursday
http://www.unian.info/war/1073764-shelling-in-donbas-increases-in-frequency-on-thursday.html … pic.twitter.com/ZY0Z5ROkQ6


#Donetsk @Serzzze
17:31 Leninsky Rumble
17:27 Donbas Arena: battle in airport dir-n & like D-30 shells not far from here

#Donetsk
17:15 Schetinina @DoneckiiPatriot Distant volleys
@nixer79 A tank/SPG works fr/#Spartak, arty fr/Vishnevskogo&Bakiny

#Donetsk
17:15 Kalinina @Serzzze Several heavy single outgoings
Center @papandopoolo Distinct regular singles from NE

Around #Shyrokyne: Intense shelling of #Ukraine positions from #Novoazovsk

17:08 #Donetsk @666_mancer
Mayak: Strange heavy volleys
Tow/#Pisky or #Spartak
17:13 Schetinina @DoneckiiPatriot One volley

Azov Reg.: #Shyrokyno is under RU fire again w mortars and AGS. Armed provocations continued practically all day. 3 Ukr fighters WIA (easy).

19:02 #Horlivka @GirkinGirkin Putin's militants went northwestwards, to Bessrabka and west, "it will be shooting soon'

18:42 #Donetsk Kalininsky @DoneckiiPatriot Very distant rumbles
19:02 #Horlivka Kurganka @xy_gorlov4an Rumbles, like volleys

18:21 #Donetsk Kalinovka @Serzzze Distant heavy outgoing volleys
18:38 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Heavy explosion

#Horlivka @OlgaGorlovka "An UAZ car exploded near Iskra, they say a grenade was thrown".

21:01 #Donetsk @funkermanjke Heavy machine gun and single explosions in the airport area.

21:19 #Donetsk @HeleneHelene5 small arms bursts, explosions in the north

[OUTLAW 09]

We are now seeing both the Russian version of non linear warfare and now the Chinese version of their "hybrid" warfare in challenging the US.

A total of nine ships from #Russia and #China to conduct joint exercise in Mediterranean next month http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-china-to-hold-joint-naval-drills-in-the-mediterranean-sea/520093.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is in full violation of Minsk 2 and the US needs to fully reveal exactly what their ISR is showing in front of the UNSC and if Russia is proven to be truly inside the Ukraine then their voting rights need to be suspended due to being an "aggressor nation" as they have blatantly violated even the UN Charter as an "aggressor".

U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce
#OSCE UAVs document buildup of forces, incl. tanks, in #Russia-backed sep held areas - READ: http://1.usa.gov/1GJYqKh pic.twitter.com/1XynByqNIo

.@danbbaer: #Russia & separatists cannot 'pick and choose' portions of Minsk http://osce.usmission.gov/apr_30_15_russian_violations_in_ukraine.html … pic.twitter.com/pXvit7O2Tp

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is in full violation of Minsk 2 and the US needs to fully reveal exactly what their ISR is showing in front of the UNSC and if Russia is proven to be truly inside the Ukraine then their voting rights need to be suspended due to being an "aggressor nation" as they have blatantly violated even the UN Charter as an "aggressor".

U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce
#OSCE UAVs document buildup of forces, incl. tanks, in #Russia-backed sep held areas - READ: http://1.usa.gov/1GJYqKh pic.twitter.com/1XynByqNIo

.@danbbaer: #Russia & separatists cannot 'pick and choose' portions of Minsk http://osce.usmission.gov/apr_30_15_russian_violations_in_ukraine.html … pic.twitter.com/pXvit7O2Tp

Is Putin now smoking what..........????

Russia Says Western Leaders Note Progress In Cease-Fire In Ukraine http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-france-ukraine-germany-cease-fire-progress/26987709.html … via @RFERL 30 April

Russia has been constantly since Feb 2015 in total non compliance of Minsk 2 and never implemented a single point SO just what is Western leaders states WAS progress?????

[OUTLAW 09]

21:01 #Donetsk @funkermanjke Heavy machine gun and single explosions in the airport area.

20:15 #Shakhtarsk @Helgi__UA half score 18-wheelers escorted by jeeps w/foghorns [police lights maybe?] fr/#Donetsk eastward

#Krasniy_Luch @falconua About 20:30 a long column from #Novopavlivka , abt 30 items, probably SPGs

#Donrtsk #rumours @Don_Riccio "In Maryanka and Krasnohorivka there is lots of American troops and vehicles" :)

An extremely interesting admission by the Russian mercenaries that they had been hiding tanks from OSCE"

Severniy" district of Donetsk. Artillery, armor driving out of underground parking. https://twitter.com/MCensor/status/593830013797068802 …

UKR Mission to OSCE @UKRinOSCE
We are extr.concerned tht militants increasingly use heavy weapons incl.artillery&MRLS that should have been withdrawn accord.2Minsk agrmnts

UKR Mission to OSCE @UKRinOSCE
#Prokopchuk at #OSCE PC: Over 24-28 April Ukrainian positions were shelled by militants with 120mm mortars & 122mm artillery for 108 times

Russian tanks near Oleksandrivs'k http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/30-april-russian-tanks-near-oleksandrivsk … pic.twitter.com/L2Xiccql6I

Russian tanks in Luhansk pic.twitter.com/t5caSFa2JF http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/30-april-russian-tanks-in-luhansk …

Russian army tanks and vehicles in Telmanove raion, Donetsk region, Ukraine (via @BuTaJIu4eK) http://cs621825.vk.me/v621825998/2836e/dFw5H091IOA.jpg … pic.twitter.com/72wpAfHsjN

22:36 #Donetsk @relictDon Distant dullish booms in the northwest

Russian subversive leaflets in #Odessa, calling for unrest on May 2.
#Odesa pic.twitter.com/gyAiYLrb5q

Exclusive Interview: Ex-FSB officer considers himself a real Ukrainian http://uatoday.tv/society/exclusive-interview-russian-ex-fsb-officer-is-happy-to-have-become-a-ukrainian-citizen-424712.html

Heavy military vehicles in Donetsk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/30-april-heavy-military-vehicles-in-donetsk … pic.twitter.com/c8T51t7LQK via @tendertorg21

23:24 #Horlivka @LeeZernoganja Evening there was an explosion in city council area.They threw a grenade fr/car to gang truck

Equipment and ammo in the underground parking lot of the Donbas Arena.
pic.twitter.com/WMXa1L9uF8

23:30 #Krasniy_Luch @falconua One more long column - about 30 Grads from #Novopavlivka direction

#Breaking #Analysis #Map
The #RUSSIAN_ARMY's rehearsal for the #May9 parade in #Luhansk city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdcH-41oEuo … pic.twitter.com/lGHNjndebV

Много техники + лагерь #ОРСС
(танк №326)
pic.twitter.com/leXlwt4baC

[OUTLAW 09]

As Russia builds up, America draws down." ~75% of NATO capacity has been moved from Europe since Cold War. Absolutely nuts.


Gen. @PMBreedlove reveals: "Some Russian military exercises have caught us by surprise" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/commander-of-us-military-in-europe-sees-signs-of-russia-preparing-another-offensive … Russia pic.twitter.com/rjXxzSz1mJ

US leadership in Europe "perhaps more important now than at any time in recent history" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/commander-of-us-military-in-europe-sees-signs-of-russia-preparing-another-offensive … pic.twitter.com/zxPjdZST4g

Commander of US forces in Europe warns there are "critical gaps" in intelligence on #Russia http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/commander-of-us-military-in-europe-sees-signs-of-russia-preparing-another-offensive … pic.twitter.com/s9CajfYTZp

[mirhond]

Rebels claim recovering about 471 combat vehicles (198 intact and serviceable) from Debal'tsevo encirclement.

http://dan-news.info/defence/opolchenie-dnr-evakuirovalo-iz-debalcevo-pochti-pyatsot-edinic-texniki-protivnika-basurin.html


«Всего инженерными подразделениями Армии ДНР была обнаружена и эвакуирована 471 единица военной техники, в том числе в исправном и ремонтопригодном состоянии – 198 единиц»

a good site with lists of destroyed and captured armour:

http://lostarmour.info (http://lostarmour.info/spoils/)

it claims total 408 pieces taken as booty by rebels, and 28 by loyalists.

[OUTLAW 09]

Rebels claim recovering about 471 combat vehicles (198 intact and serviceable) from Debal'tsevo encirclement.

http://dan-news.info/defence/opolchenie-dnr-evakuirovalo-iz-debalcevo-pochti-pyatsot-edinic-texniki-protivnika-basurin.html



a good site with lists of destroyed and captured armour:

http://lostarmour.info (http://lostarmour.info/spoils/)

it claims total 436 pieces taken by rebels as booty.

comrade mirhond you are saying these are the same rebels that "claimed" over 2000 Ukrainian POWs had been captured and then they admitted no POWs and then they "claimed" they had killed over 500 Ukrainians and yet only 167 were killed and actually verified by the Ukrainian Army.

these are the same rebels we both are talking about right because per UAV videos only a total of 21 vehicles were taken and most of them had been deliberately damaged

AND was it not Putin personally who stated the Ukrainians should surrender because they were surrounded and could not get out but 2100 did get out

AND we are talking about the same rebels and regular Russian army who suffered 1500 killed NOT counting their wounded right

BTW--the Ukrainian kill ratio was one killed Ukrainian soldier per over 13 Russian mercenaries and regular Russian troops during the Debaltseve fighting and all Ukrainian troops made it out AFTER Putin stated they were defeated by truck drivers and miners-so really was it a great "victory" --not bad right

AND it is the same rebels that recently claimed they had killed 238 Ukrainians in fighting near Mariupol but you did notice that they still have not taken the town they claimed they had killed the Ukrainians in--these are the same rebel right??

Ukrainian soldiers are seemingly to be far more resilient that Russia thought they would be.

BTW--you did see the many videos on the Ukrainian SF team that blew up the Rostov munition depot

[mirhond]

BTW--the Ukrainian kill ratio was one killed Ukrainian soldier per over 13 Russian mercenaries and regular Russian troops during the Debaltseve fighting and all Ukrainian troops made it out--

Not even a scrap of paper, not even a piece of nonsense from ukrainian media to support this outlandish pipe dream - why I'am not surprised?

[OUTLAW 09]

Not even a scrap of paper, not even a piece of nonsense from ukrainian media to support this outlandish pipe dream - why I'am not surprised?

comrade mirhond--you do not even see a guerrilla war in progress--let's see


1. six rail cuts on Russian rail lines being used inside the Ukraine
2. two destroyed Russian mercenary weapons and equipment depots
3. Russian destroyed munitions depot in Rostov Ob.

ALL in the last week--mirhond

AND today another mercenary depot explodes---and you really think there is no Ukrainian guerrilla groups working in the Donetsk and Rostov---picture is included for evidence

Powerful explosion near "Vostochnaya" mine in #Donetsk. Locals say there was militants' military warehouse.

pic.twitter.com/paWA7kLDHb

[OUTLAW 09]

Not even a scrap of paper, not even a piece of nonsense from ukrainian media to support this outlandish pipe dream - why I'am not surprised?

Another small scrap of paper from the mercenary side---which you do not have to believe but I do---

BTW--the Chechen foreign fighters make up the largest mercenary fighting group in the Donetsk region

Kadyrov withdraws all Chechen fighters from #Ukraine after Zakharchenko got 40 Chechens killedhttp://glavcom.ua/news/290122.html … pic.twitter.com/dtaYE9EnWy

BTW--mirhond the kill ration in this particular fight was 1 killed and 1 wounded Ukrainian Azov fighters and 40 killed Chechens--nice ratio right??

AND actually 4 are still missing and not recovered by the rebels----

[OUTLAW 09]

https://en.informnapalm.org/timeline-of-events-in-ato-area-on-april-28-2015/

Timeline of Events in ATO Area on April 28, 2015

This timeline was prepared by the InformNapalm team and was based on the information from our insiders in the occupied territories, as well as the information from public sources.


Sector “C”

Donetsk

At night militants several times opened fire at Ukrainian Armed Forces strong points in the area of Avdiivka, Pesky and Opytne using heavy artillery.

08-50 Motel Circle, 2 white jeeps of the OSCE mission were noticed.

09-29 a column of heavy military equipment of mercenaries moved along the Artema Street.

10-17 Kalininskyi district, a move of column consisting of 14 covered URAL trucks was registered from the side of Makiivka in Western direction. Then, at 11-25 2 infantry combat vehicles moved towards Makiivka.

11-20 near the mine #20 mercenaries organized trainings with the use of small arms, they were practicing shooting Kalashnikov hand-held machine guns and AKs.

From 12-00 till 14-00 in the area of Donetsk airport and Peski mine and shells explosions could be heard.

15-51 Kalininskyi district, militants pulled a BMP IFV using power tag from the side of Makiivka to Western direction.

16-10 two OSCE vehicles moved at the direction of Donetsk airport along the Kyivskyi Avenue.

We should also mention that pairs of Road Police cars appeared on Donetsk roads. They are located in the same places as they used to be located before the occupation.

For the whole day civilians could see an intensive move of covered trucks, transporting a lot of militants’ personnel in different directions.

17-24 tank fire from Yasinovata was registered.

17-45 powerful salvo fire from the heavy artillery made from the side of Yakovlivka.

18-11 Kyivskyi disctrict, from time to time mortar and heavy artillery salvos could be heard.

19-45 1 BTR with personnel on its armor moved under Russian flag from the city along the Ilyich Avenue.

Avdiivka

17-07 local residents heard very heavy explosions in Opytne

17-45 incoming explosions of multiple rocket launcher system could be heard.

00-16 rather powerful explosions from Opytne direction were registered.

Makiivka

6-30 About 20 escorted trucks moved towards Donetsk through Makiivka. Some of them had their registration plates covered, some registration plates showed number of 161 region (Russia).

19-48 Chervonohvardiyskyi district, 5 petrol tank vehicles and two BTRs were noticed near the garage of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Overall, in this are a high concentration of military equipment is registered.

Horlivka

Starting from 20-00 and active move of military equipment columns including self-propelled artillery mounts (SPG), tanks, and BTR. Columns were moving in different directions. With a difference of 1 hour two columns moved towards the town of Dzerzhynsk, a third one in the direction of the town of Mayorsk.

Until 22-00 with different intervals sound of low intensive fight could be heard on the outskirts of the town from the North, North-East and North-West directions.

At about 22-00 a mass shelling from the town of Horlivka at the direction of the town of Dzerzhynsk and the town of Mayorsk started. Shelling was conducted with the use of howitzers, self-propelled artillery guns (SPG) and heavy artillery. Local residents also heard single firing of rockets from multiple rocket launchers.

22-00 outgoing shots from the area of autodrome, 3-4 SPGs were shooting.

22-25 mercenaries’ howitzers were shooting from the area of scrap metal company, 5th pond and full gallop near Chimik;

Starting from 22-46 till 23-05 sound of reactive shells firing heard from the central municipal district. Interval is about 1-3 minutes with artillery shelling getting more and more intensive on the background. In total there were 5-6 firings.

23-06 militants’ artillery in the area of full gallop of the 5th quarter and mechanical rubber goods enterprise joined the shelling;

23-09 The intesity of a fire increased significantly, in the area of the town of Mayorsk powerful incoming explosions could be heard together with sounds of small arms shooting.

23-34 artillery located on the territory of wholesale depots on Minina and Pazharskoho Streets joined the shelling.

23-45 shots heard from the Holmivskyi village.

23-48 Tank cannon shots heard from the Stroitel district.

23-56 artillery saliva started from the 5th district.

23-57 local residents also notice that mercenaries shoot from one town district (wholesale depots) at another district (Komsomolets). Probably this is done in order to cause panic among local residents.

Local residents say that conflagrations broke out in the town. In particular, a fire broke out in the area of filtration plant on the crossroad of Ostapenko Street. and Lenina Avenue. Problems with water supply in different town districts started nearly immediately.

Dzerzhynsk

Local residents say that in the evening after 20-00 they heard powerful explosions from militants’ shelling with artillery mounts and mortars. As a result of this shelling there are victims among civilians.

Sector “A”

We remind that militants were announcing military trainings on the whole occupied territory of Luhansk region, which had to be held on April 28th .

Village of Obozne (48.733058, 39.308767). Militants’ military equipment is located in nearly each yard. Locals say there have never been so many equipment items before.

Stakhanov – a unit with signs of Russian engineer troops and with a lot of engineer equipment has arrived. It is likely that Russian high rank officers arrived together with engineers.

Many stores accept payment only in Russian rubles what also indirectly confirms that a lot of Russian servicemen have arrived to the town.

Luhansk – a “training alert” has been announced in Luhansk in the morning. Starting from night, large columns of military equipment were moving in the city.

From 13-00 till 13-40 there were several explosions and machine gun fire on the shooting range heard in the city. In Eastern districts very powerful explosions could be heard.

19-55 Luhansk. A column of military equipment including tanks moved through Bakhmutka in the direction of the village Zheltoe.

Antratsyt

Disarmed Cossacks of “Cossack national guard”, who are based in the regional state administration building try to act in the LNR as civic structure – they are looking for a lawyer in order to legalize their business – captured stores, makeshift coalmines etc.

Rovenki

18-00 5 militants’ URAL trucks passed, one of URALs was pulling a cannon. Locals notice such movement of equipment for the 3rd day in a raw at one and the same time, what brings them to the conclusion that trucks and equipment move through the Russian-Ukrainian border during the exact planned time.

Shchastya

A work of subversive-reconnaissance groups has extremely intensified on the northern direction of Luhansk region. Last night there was a fight with a large reconnaissance group of an enemy near the town of Shchastya. A group had to retreat to starting positions.

From 17-36 till 17-41 militants attacked the thermal station with grenade launchers, they also attacked all checkpoints of the town of Shchastya with 120 mm mortars. There are wounded and dead.

Alchevsk

Scrap iron from Alchevsk metallurgical complex is being taken away to Russia via rail way. Pensions in Alchevsk are given in rubles.

Lutuhyne

Over the last 4 days at least 3 mercenaries killed in Lutuhyne area, one was wounded. Mosty these were results of domestic conflicts with Russians.

Krasnyi Luch

Nearly 150 items of armored equipment are concentrated along the road Luhansk-Krasnyi Luch. Small pension payments in rubles renewed again.

Local residents also say that trainings were renewed, heavy artillery fire could be heard. During the training mercenaries were shooting with BM-21 “Grad” multiple rocket launchers.

Extremely long queues appear on the border crossings, captured by Russian occupants. This is cause by columns of Russian equipment which comes all the time.

Izvarine border crossing

A large column of armored equipment has passed from Russia to Luhansk region over the last 24 hours. The column included 15 tanks, equipment also arrives via rail way.

Dolzhanskyi border crossing

Large columns of trucks take Donbass coal out to Russia.

Sector “B” and “M”

In the morning the village of Hranitne has been shelled for 2 hours, shells hit the Chervonych Partyzan Street right in the middle. Shelling was conducted from the village of Telmanove.

Shyrokyne – night was fairly calm, at about 7-00 mercenaries fired from AGS.

Chermalyk – at about 18-30 shelling of the village Chermalyk of Volnovakha area started. Local doctors inform about one person killed.

Occupied Crimea

Local residents inform that at about 14-30 a column of Russian armored equipment went through Armiansk. It included 14 BTR-80, command vehicle on the basis of BTR-80, about 8 URAL trucks with barrels and one with maintenance equipment, 8 KAMAZ trucks, 2 fuel tankers on the basis of KAMAZ trucks. BTRs had their spaced armor off, soldiers were in standard Russian field uniform.

Conclusion: Militants together with Russian servicemen continue provocative shelling of Ukrainian forces positions. They also concentrate military equipment and ammunition, terrorize local residents on the occupied territories.

[OUTLAW 09]

The US changes its terminology to reflect #Russia involvement in Donbas
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-us-says-directing/26986417.html … pic.twitter.com/OojY53cwR5

U.S. commander: Another Russian offensive possible in Ukraine after lull http://nato.trendolizer.com/2015/04/us-commander-another-russian-offensive-possible-in-ukraine-after-lull.html … pic.twitter.com/sgCXV5wZeQ

NATO's top commander: Russian forces seeking to "reset and reposition"
http://www.unian.info/world/1073812-natos-top-commander-russian-forces-seeking-to-reset-and-reposition.html … pic.twitter.com/5jxpRTF66g

[OUTLAW 09]

comrade mirhond--you do not even see a guerrilla war in progress--let's see


1. six rail cuts on Russian rail lines being used inside the Ukraine
2. two destroyed Russian mercenary weapons and equipment depots
3. Russian destroyed munitions depot in Rostov Ob.

ALL in the last week--mirhond

AND today another mercenary depot explodes---and you really think there is no Ukrainian guerrilla groups working in the Donetsk and Rostov---picture is included for evidence

Powerful explosion near "Vostochnaya" mine in #Donetsk. Locals say there was militants' military warehouse.

pic.twitter.com/paWA7kLDHb

BTW mirhond these Ukrainian guerrilla teams have found a simple way of getting explosives into the mercenary depots--watch for more explosions in the coming weeks.

sometimes the hardest targets are in fact the easiest targets to attack--think about it

and rail cuts--can be done all night long throughout the Donetsk region just as they attempted to do in the Ukrainian side as it is impossible to guard kilometers of rail lines AND historically the Ukrainians have been great at guerrilla warfare

AND they get intel info like this every day from those actually living inside the rebel zones who are supporting them---but you do not have to believe it.

VIDEO Russian armor enters/passes through Ukraine south of Lugansk DAY and NIGHT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ba8An6UECY … pic.twitter.com/IdoCjB5N36

[OUTLAW 09]

Little to no action from the various fighting hotspots—maybe the Russian troops and mercenaries are out celebrating “International Workers Day”.

It looks like it is quiet on most of occupied Donbas territories hotspots for now.
Filling the void with selected articles to read and catch up on.

Putin has made WW2 anniversary into a celebration of Russian imperialism and international authoritarianism http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/15/moscow-defiant-victory-day-parade-european-kim-jong-un-9-may-russia-ukraine …

Russian terrorist told about paratroopers from Pskov who attacked Ukrainian Army near #Lugansk http://lugansk-news.com/russian-terrorist-told-about-paratroopers-from-pskov-who-attacked-ukrainian-army-near-lugansk/ … pic.twitter.com/ta09rfvEWT

Another “altered state of reality statement” from the Russian FM—seems that they forgot they had a recent neo Nazi/ultra nationalist conference sponsored by Russia in St. Petersburg do they not read their own newspapers.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
.@KKdolgov: West should urge Kiev to take concrete measures against neo-Nazis http://tass.ru/en/russia/792752

Right now the arguments over whether the OSCE is really “neutral” andn actually is prorussian is gaining speed.
Ukraine accuses @OSCE_SMM of 'exaggerating' no of times they fired on rebels. In Shyrokyne many soldiers accused OSCE of being Russian spies

An interesting statement by the SACEUR which is actually true—the Ukraine Russian clash is just not over something that is one or two years old—it is a clash against the West that Putin himself has been driving for at least 15 years.

SACEUR @PMBreedlove: over the past 20 years, Russia has charted a course ‘breaking with the principle and values of the West’

Why #Putin’s ‘Russification’ Campaign Against the Baltics Should Be Big News for Us http://dailysign.al/1IoCUd8 pic.twitter.com/g537BAod8u

Worth watching:
Ballad Of A Soldier, the 1959 Soviet war film of war films, can be watched with (good) English subtitles on YouTubehttp://youtu.be/h0zr877200s
Remember resisting Putinism is not the same thing as being "anti-Russia".

CSIS ✔ @CSIS
The balance of power within the Kremlin itself is extremely worrisome -@AKuchins and @DrJMankoff http://cs.is/1JBb5Qj

[OUTLAW 09]

#Shakhtarsk 10:15
8 Urals with fighters, 1 command post vehicle, 2x MT-LB and 14x BMP towards #Donetsk https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/594038404184207360 …

Actually too quiet on the part of the Russian troops and her mercenaries—they must be truly “taking the day off”.
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, May 1, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/WtJ8J67A0q

Except---now we have “aliens” being injected into the fighting!!

Mysterious "third force" blamed for provoking fighting between ATO forces and Russian militia at #Shyrokynehttp://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3685/pod_mariupolem_nekaya_tretya_sila_provociruet_konf likty_mezhdu_silami_ato_i_terroristami.html …

Overnight, Russian forces/militia fired on Ukrainian forces positions at #Shyrokyne http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3686/nochyu_boeviki_obstrelyali_pozicii_sil_ato_v_shiro kino.html … via @Mariupol_TV

One thing Putin has done for the Ukraine—he has created a massive civil society pride and support for both their history and now their military.

Офигевший Танкист @traki1983

Прости, Всевишній, наших ворогів,
Прости,бо не судилось їм пізнати
Любові до землі батьків
До отчої стежини коло хати
pic.twitter.com/wLnhivmQGA

[OUTLAW 09]

With Russia increasing its forces in Ukraine, why is Germany focusing more on Kyiv to implement #Minsk2 than Moscow? http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/51a3148a-ec12-11e4-b428-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3YXEnjcXJ …

Canada at NATO ✔ @CanadaNATO
#Putin field-tested his anti-Western info war techniques on his domestic opponents: http://www.diplomaatia.ee/en/article/the-challenge-of-russias-anti-western-information-warfare/ … pic.twitter.com/LJTLy0hZh8

NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg tells @POLITICOEurope's @KaminskiMK a few truths about #Russia: http://goo.gl/LkIGuc pic.twitter.com/YybTHOhE1U

1919. Estonia & Latvia fighting Russian aggression seek for mil support from the USA. The response is "diplomatic". pic.twitter.com/jWVguZZ4wj

Notice how Putin uses natural gas dependence as an economic “weapon of choice” whenever possible when dealing with Europe—no wonder his FM went ballistic when the EU filed monopolistic charges against Gazprom.

Canada at NATO ✔ @CanadaNATO
#Russia's navy disrupts #Lithuania's drive for energy connection with #Sweden http://en.delfi.lt/lithuania/energy/russian-ships-delaying-works-on-nordbalt-electricity-link-between-lithuania-and-sweden.d?id=67852638 …

So now you know: Russia accuses #Lithuania of "inspiring" EU Commission's anti-trust case against Gazprom @Euractiv http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/chizhov-gazprom-case-was-political-beginning-314091 …

Jamestown Foundation @JamestownTweets
SB: Putin cannot afford a protracted war because of sanctions and the Russian military cannot sustain it.

Rebels have removed the "Ь" from the #Donetsk city sign, which was previously in Ukrainian, to make it Russian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyJu5m69XmE …

This is how the Ukraine is using US provided non lethal military aid.

#Odesa right now, photo by Ivan Strahov pic.twitter.com/eBsQGtA3KV

Russia's imperial and communist traditions merged.
Lenin is turning in his mausoleum nearby...https://twitter.com/Shulz/status/594062490406912000 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Well it was a "long breakfast"--war is back on again.

#Donetsk @HU_dojnik [Explosion at 12:20] sounded like fr/Chaykinske circle, #Makeevka
12:20 #Schetinina @PVB40 Rolling rumble

Two Ukrainian Soldiers Killed, At Least Three Wounded Yesterday http://goo.gl/5D6Qks

Smoke rises in Makiivka http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/1-may-smoke-rises-in-makiivka- … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/cPP6LS5m87 via @666_mancer

12:20 #Makeevka @GirkinGirkin pic.twitter.com/QPDO19JYcw
@HU_dojnik: 'even eastern #Donetsk heard it'

12:18 #Donetsk Razdolna @666_mancer Heavy rumble, balcony vibrated
12:20 #Makeevka @MordorOutdoor Rumble, 60y SovUkr coalmine

12:17 #Makeevka center @OldHistoric:Heavy single explosions, car alarms went off
12:18 #Donetsk Proletarka @666_mancer rumble

12:05 #Shakhtarsk @Helgi__UA 3 MT-LB towards #Donetsk.

#News
From 6pm to midnight; 21 Russian attacks (so 71 in total for yesterday), mainly hitting #Avdeevka, #Pisky, #Novhorodske and #Vodyane.

12:20 (cont) @666_mancer "...volume of smoke first, sparkles then and an explosion in few seconds

Any reader here have an idea what type of artillery shell the Russians are firing???? Themobaric????

14:24 #Donetsk Tsvetochny @666_mancer Explosion behind the woodline across the field in petrol station area at bypass road...

Artillery shelling, smoke rises in #Makiivka
pic.twitter.com/oUqA9HjAYv

More Russian troops via their VK (Russian Face Book) pages:

pic.twitter.com/a2km7rHZGi
pic.twitter.com/w5377vJZJO Entry date on this one is 28 April 2015

[OUTLAW 09]

Any SWJ reader able to explain these three statements:

Zakharchenko announces offensive plans on #Ukraine, as "self defense".
"We may require #Kharkov and other cities" http://24tv.ua/n570773

Disappointed that no pressure is leveraged against Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. Focus is on anticipation of more aggression. Bizarre

The complacency of US & the West in allowing breach after breach of Ukraine's sovereignty & Minsk agreements is astounding

I remember Obama's recent statements after Minsk 2--we will judge Russia on it's actions not it's words and if the actions continue then we raise the cost--notice any raising of anything lately other than in words??

Notice not a single comment coming out of US, EU especially German and French leadership other that NATO's SG and SACEUR.

A total disconnect between military and civilian leadership --ever wonder why????

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian propaganda is really going overboard these days—come on Moscow—really the US cares about Russian pensions?????:

"USA: hands off our pensions." All the Kremlin brainwashing in 1 photo by @EvgenyFeldman. via @novaya_gazeta pic.twitter.com/HfT3323yfE

More propaganda:

Rally of communists in Moscow. "Novorossiya is a shield of Russia" http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2015/1-may-rally-of-communists-in-moscow-novorossiya-is-a-shield … #Russia pic.twitter.com/GlZ6LbZUOB via @martin_camera

At the May Parade in St. Petersburg:

LGBT contingent at St Petersburg May Day parade. But no room for pink tank, stopped by police! Via @outloudru pic.twitter.com/uQGTLCOwtE

And more May Day Russian propaganda:

#Simferopol today, Stalin, it reads 'We'll reach abundance'. Blessed are the poor in spirit via @krim_v_jope pic.twitter.com/Je8m50pw5b #Crimea
What the heck does the above Stalin slogan really mean???

One way to keep Russians from immigrating out of Russia as the brain drain iis hitting Russia hard:

M/while, #Putin has new sneaky Iron Curtain: 4M+ ppl may B banned from leaving #Russia b/c of loan debt & #copyright infringements.

10 far-right activists arrested in Kyiv after an attempt to disrupt a #MayDay communist rally
pics via @HromadskeTV pic.twitter.com/FU7ZxpTqJo


#OSCE monitoring mission used by fighters to rotate their forces in #Shyrokine.
http://fb.me/3QoyEjdLr

An FSB agent talking to Russians deported from Ukraine: "We'll have the last laugh with these bastards when we'll march into Kharkiv".

SBU: Special operation in #Odessa and area continues. SBU blocking large-scale separatist activity. https://twitter.com/ServiceSsu/status/594117988313333761 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Why is it only the NATO SG and the SACEUR that are calling out Russian expansionist activities??

Not a single comment from the French, the Germans, the EU in general and especially the US White House and the NSC--does anyone find that utterly strange???

US Mission to NATO ✔ @USNATO
"Challenge posed by a resurgent Russia is global, not regional, and enduring, not temporary" http://goo.gl/u49mqb pic.twitter.com/MIGpXyv4CT

[OUTLAW 09]

Fighting activity by the Russian troops and her mercenaries seems to be overall rather lower tonight.

#Donetsk 7:16PM
Center - Periodically hearing remote heavy firing in the North and North-East https://twitter.com/papandopoolo/status/594173465499967489 …

#Donetsk 18:50
On Leninsky blv towards the airport 8 tanks speeding, w fighters on top. https://twitter.com/14720Maro/status/594176666366279681 …

#Shakhtarsk 17:50
2 BTRs, 3 command post vehicles, 2 russian Kamaz trucks towards east. https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/594154306300989440 …

#Ukraine intelligence source tells me Russian special ops organised youths to dress as nationalists and attack #MayDay marches in #Odessa

#Russia continues to undermine Minsk as violence in eastern #Ukraine intensifies: http://goo.gl/wvMa9O

Russians training 50,000-strong militant army in Donbas - Ukraine's presidential spokes http://24today.net/open/396481 pic.twitter.com/7q68gcGG2n

Looks like another provocation of anonymous "nationalist" group that attacked rally in #Kyiv #Ukraine @OlgaK2013 https://twitter.com/unian/status/594162380944371712 …

#Russian-separatist MRLSs being spruced up w/paint in #Horlivka that they have never left in violation of #Minsk II https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/594101562559049728 …

#MUSTWATCH documentary from #Shyrokyne by @nolanwpeterson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9r5lPhz018 …

Russia's Victory Day celebrations on May 9th will twist history to justify its war in Ukraine http://econ.st/1AptCa1 pic.twitter.com/7KUjyoMJrC

#Putin replaced his #Donbas negotiator. Be ready for a huge conflict escalation: http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/05/01/why-putin-changed-his-donbas-negotiator/ …

Last week 2 Russian Tu-95 bombers entered US air defense zone near Alaska -- & were not intercepted by NORAD fighters http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-conducts-nuclear-bomber-flight-near-alaska/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

This Chechen BN has been fighting for the Ukraine from the very beginning.

The situation in #Shyrokyne.
Heavy exchange of mortar/arty fire. Chechens film it all.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qv_kRvfOK4 … pic.twitter.com/yACauqztZn

Russian info war against their own civil society has turned Stalin from being a mass murder to a folk hero.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XkTFZ_ovzk … #Stalin murdered millions of #Russians, but guess what... pic.twitter.com/xKwZ9049p3

[OUTLAW 09]

http://zenpundit.com/?p=44685

Is Strategy Dead?

[by Mark Safranski, a.k.a “zen“]


Strategy seems to be widely admired in Western governmental circles, but no longer practiced in matters of state.

I am not saying strategy has been forgotten. Far from it. Strategy is still debated, honored nostalgically (“ah, Containment!”), passed on ritualistically in war colleges, frequently demanded by opposition politicians and its value is regularly extolled in white papers. We admire, ruefully, the use of strategy by others (Beijing, Moscow, ISIS) and regret the sting of its lack in our own efforts. We have universities that grant degrees in strategic studies, scholars who write learned tomes on the art of strategy. Americans love business strategies, sports strategies, investment strategies, learning strategies, strategies for your career, strategies for self-improvement or to find the perfect mate. We call a very wide variety of non-strategy things “strategy” because we love the word so much. The only thing we don’t seem to be able to do with strategy is practice it.

All of this other “strategy” noise is merely the sound of mourning for an art which has been lost.

Why can Westerners no longer “do strategy”? The reasons I suspect are twofold but are interrelated: The Europeans as a whole now lack a military capacity that would render a strategy meaningful. America, by contrast, still has great military capacity but chronically lack a strategy that would make American use of force meaningful in any given conflict.

In both cases, the root problem is political, albeit expressed differently.

Europeans are largely in agreement as to the nature and purpose of their social contract and choosing to dismantle their Cold War defense establishments was a decision financially consistent with the strong European preference for extremely generous welfare statism and free-riding on American military power. Let’s not mince words, the nations of Europe are in retirement and are unwilling to fund even their basic national security needs, much less their NATO obligations. It is a calculated choice to hollow out NATO and the Europeans made it a decade ago.

Americans by contrast, are deeply polarized as to what kind of nation they wish to be at home. These divisions over fundamental cultural values and social mores have created a kind of schizophrenic, Frankenstein monster, “meritocratic” ruling class that shares a bottom-feeder, careerist, anti-democratic, ethos of oligarchy while fighting vicious kabuki partisan battles to keep each side’s exploited grass-roots political tribe energized, angry and divided.

Because American wars are now fought and opposed primarily for domestic partisan advantages that lead to later financial career advancement for politicians, strategy has largely been displaced by politics and by law, an honorable discipline likewise under siege and partially mastered by our political class to warp for their own benefit. Politicians are far more comfortable with politics and law (most are lawyers, after all) than strategy.

Politics, of course, has always played a role in formulating strategy. It is politics which envisions ends and crafts policies that frames and sustains the use of strategy to claim rewards on the battlefield and the conference table. There should be, when things are going well, harmony in the relationship of politics, policy and strategy. The problem arises when politics attempts to substitute for strategy or leaders are willing to pay high strategic costs abroad for transient and trivial political benefits at home.

In my view, that is where we are today, but I realize opinions vary. So I will ask again:

Is strategy dead?

[OUTLAW 09]

As the West and the White House can now see the war is seriously back on tonight in eastern Ukraine.

#Shakhtarsk 19:40
6x BMP and 8 Kamaz trucks towards east.
Others went to #Donetsk, russians rotating troops. https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/594182294694268929 …

#Makeevka 21:20
Artillery firing single shots from Gvardeyka or Yakovlevka. https://twitter.com/OldHistoric/status/594205083505709056 …

#Shyrokyno at 19:30 battle started, russians firing from 82-mm and 120-mm mortars, AGS, heavy machine guns, small arms.

Azov regiment trying to repel militants' offensive in Shyrokyne
http://www.unian.info/war/1073985-azov-regiment-trying-to-repel-militants-offensive-in-shyrokyne.html … pic.twitter.com/o4MOvpBGrN

Combat is on in #Shyrokyne. #Russia-backed militants attack Ukr troops w/ 82mm, 120mm mortars, automatic grenade launchers @Polk_Azov

"Local Pro-Russian rebel" says "we will win because Allah is on our side" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbk3uNNSQNs&feature=youtu.be …

Russian army column at Khryashchuvate, Luhansk region, Ukraine (via @BuTaJIu4eK) pic.twitter.com/mwbIyFjHZn https://pp.vk.me/c624521/v624521360/3577d/rsWAjTvJHgg.jpg …

Troop transport (Ural trucks) with fuel bowser - self-sufficient, covered/covering some distance. Map https://www.google.ie/maps/place/Khryashchuvate,+Luhans%27ka+oblast,+Ukraine/@48.5167395,39.4213545,12z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x411fd1fccc7fa0df:0x1313b98022a2d 16 …
This afternoon ATO forces recorded the flight of 2 enemy drones, moving toward #Avdeevka. One of them was shot down. https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/594197317026193408 …

On ATO forces strongholds near #Sokolniki & #Trohizbenka were fired fr anti-tank guns, AGS, machine guns, small arms https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/594196447626665984 …

Ukr Army: On our positions near #Shchastya militants fired 3 times today from AGS. No losses. https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/594194635318231040 …

Ukr Army: On ATO positions near #Avdiivka the occupiers shot twice today fr 122-mm artillery and heavy machine guns. https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/594193649291894784 …

#Donetsk 9:20PM
Hearing something heavy in the north.
Kalinovka https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/594204726931001345 …

#Avdiivka 9:20
After a quiet day now the shooting started. https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/594204782832803840 …

Russian tanks near Oleksandrivs'k http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/30-april-russian-tanks-near-oleksandrivsk … pic.twitter.com/L2Xiccql6I

Makeevka 10:04PM
The artillery continued to rumble towards #Yakovlevka-#Spartak https://twitter.com/OldHistoric/status/594215874728439808 …

#Donetsk 10:09PM
Proletarsky - Powerful loud singles, small guns, AA-gun https://twitter.com/DoneckiiPatriot/status/594217088052547585

#Avdiivka 10:04PM
Sounds like inside the city (shooting) https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/594215755031388160 …

#Donetsk 22:38
Budyonovsky distr. - very heavy shots from the north-west. The air shudders. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/594224788983394304 …

Did you know that the OSCE only has access to 4km of the 400km UA/RF border in Donbas? 1 percent. It's like watching 1sqcm on a 50" tv

#Donetsk 10:19PM
Artillery in the north. https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/594219630517878784

#Donetsk 10:15PM
Distant sounds of battle from the airport. Artillery. https://twitter.com/NeilRem/status/594218612686196737 …

Gunmen on Apr 30 fired in #Horlivka on the positions of their Russian "colleagues» | http://informator.lg.ua http://informator.lg.ua/?p=88636#.VUPT3gpH5F4.twitter …

@Guderian_Xaba @Serzzze artillery from Yakovlivka to Avdeevka, OSCE doesn't give a flying flip about that

[OUTLAW 09]

Both the Russian MoD and the Russian Foreign Ministry lied when they publicly stated this week that there are no Russian AD systems inside the eastern Ukraine.

29/Apr: @MoD_Russia dismissed @StateDept claim Russia deploys anti-aircraft systems in Ukraine — 1/May: in Luhansk! pic.twitter.com/Hs2blg7Fsa

Russian mobile air-defence systems in Luhansk https://youtu.be/prctmO5ioCc?t=1m54s …

"Russia denies deployment of air defense systems in eastern Ukraine." So @mfa_russia @mod_russia, what's this then? pic.twitter.com/2jw9b7xV7h

[OUTLAW 09]

Very convenient! Russian Army #LittleGreenMen arrive in Luhansk, Ukraine one week before 9 May #VictoryDayParade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prctmO5ioCc …

Captured Russian Soldier Describes Pskov Paratroopers Fighting in Ukraine
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-438-two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-at-least-three-wounded-yesterday/#8130 … pic.twitter.com/3oKXddPSVd

"#Poland recorded the activation of special services of #Russia."http://ukrainiancrisis.net/news/10342

How NOT to monitor #Russia border with #Ukraine #OSCEhttp://ceip.org/1JCNrmB pic.twitter.com/3FRPrSlPaf

[OUTLAW 09]

An important read to understand Russian non linear warfare being currently applied to the Baltics and yet DC and the White House does not believe it happens--it is not just about the Ukraine now--the SACEUR was correct in his recent statement--it is global.

Russian blackmail: Russia doesn't allow Lithuania to lay electric cable to Sweden, forcing to http://joinfo.com/world/1002166_Russian-blackmail-Russia-doesnt-allow-Lithuania.html … pic.twitter.com/p7nJIj3Bfv

Sweden backs Lithuanian protest against Russia's conduct near NordBalt. http://m.en.delfi.lt/nordic-baltic/article.php?id=67860278 …

EUCOM's Gen. Breedlove: "Mr. Putin is not done in Ukraine," #Moldova also "an area of his concern & emphasis

[OUTLAW 09]

When we trained twice the Russian 15th Peacekeeping Brigade at the JMTC in Germany in peacekeeping operations the entire group of Russian officers never indicated once to any of the US trainers when they presented the structure of the 15th the presence of an intelligence BN.

Interestingly US intel never picked up on that somewhat small but highly important detail so the SACEUR was correct--we have massive intel gaps when it comes to the Russian Army.

The 15th has been reported on several occasions via photos of their armored vehicles via their soldiers Russian VK face book entries and videos that have popped up on the net to having actually been in eastern Ukraine the latest report was three weeks ago.

Their vehicles still had the Russian MC white circles on them.

Why do we remember Russian "peacekeeping" MC brigade autumn-2014 deployment now? Because Putin is considering viability of an MC operation

Sept 2014: Russian 15th Motorized Infantry "Peacekeeping" Brigade were deployed at Popovka 10km from Ukraine border pic.twitter.com/Wlix0yb4vh


BurkoNews.info
Latest news on the War in Ukraine

15th Motorized Rifle Brigade deployed to the Ukrainian border as an intelligence unit and “peacekeepers” at the same time.

September 12, 2014 - Russian Military Assessment - Tagged: Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine -


Among the Russian forces near the Ukrainian border there is a detachment from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, a so-called “peacekeeper’s force”. The 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade is based near Samara. The Battalion or Company tactical unit from this Brigade was first deployed near the Kharkiv border, but then moved to the Kamensky District of the Rostov Oblast.

The Brigade was formed in 2005 at the military camp Roshchinsky, which is some 35 km from the city of Samara. The size of the Brigade is more than 2000 personnel. The Brigade has 3 Motorized Rifle and one intelligence battalion, and also special units of military, rear and logistic units. The Brigade mostly consists of contract-troops and has the newest and the most modern Russian weapon and vehicles.

Judging on medals “For taking Crimea” on the picture, personnel from this Brigade took part in the annexation of Crimea.

I would like to underline one interesting detail. Why troopers of a “peacekeeping” brigade would wear chevrons of “military intelligence” with “PF” chevrons? We can see it on more than one picture. What is 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade PF, m/u 90600?

[OUTLAW 09]

Fighting is now intensifying this evening:


The battle is ongoing since a hour and a half.
#Optyne-#Avdiivka
11:17PM https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/594234097825878016 …

#Donetsk airport area, #Pisky, #Spartak very loud, heavy and small arms.
10:54 https://twitter.com/062_Region/status/594228382390444032 …

"#Komsomolskoye 3 more explosions, flares in the sky." - via @MEGGER_I

@Guderian_Xaba "Called #Starobeshevo they've heard it stronger windows trembled, then must fell closer to them."

#Komsomolskoye 10:43PM
With strong hissing sound has flown something like a jet, and exploded near the town. https://twitter.com/MEGGER_I/status/594225671334944769 …

French mercenaries from separatists side fire on #Ukraine lines trying to provoke a return fire https://youtu.be/IX-PW6_VeYY Thanks @aredrover

[OUTLAW 09]

SACEUR is seriously concerned that the Russian military adventure into eastern Ukraine is a far more serious move than the entire Western civilian leadership to include Obama fully understand----

"We're Not Interested in a Fair Fight" – US Army Commander Urges NATO to Confront Russia http://nato.trendolizer.com/2015/05/were-not-interested-in-a-fair-fight-us-army-commander-urges-nato-to-confront-russia-1.html … pic.twitter.com/v073OewG15

[OUTLAW 09]

#Avdiivka - "Battle likely in the 'Royal Hunting' Complex area" pic.twitter.com/0z3JXGt9Pp

For those SWJ readers--and what will the responses from western leaders in Germany and France as well as the US be tomorrow morning--silence as usual.

[OUTLAW 09]

Part 1:
Where and how #Romania will fight #Russia:
#Moldova #Transnistria #Gagauzia #Odessa #Budjak
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/05/01/where-and-how-romania-will-fight-russia-part-i/ …

Part 2:
Where and how #Romania will fight #Russia:
What happens if Russia attacks Odessa?
What is the #Budjak?
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/05/01/where-and-how-romania-will-fight-russia-part-ii/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

#Russian proxies shelled #Krymske in #Luhansk oblast, E #Ukraine. One woman is heavily wounded

VIDEO Brand new Russian stuff in Lugansk.https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=13&v=prctmO5ioCc … pic.twitter.com/rFjy4QeRGn

#LUHANSK
If you wonder, where you have seen the #Ural4320 tractor variant
or #ZIL131 fuel truck before: "Russian aid" pic.twitter.com/P5sQfUjYRy

Here’s how democracy, autocracy and colonialism fared over the last century
– by @AnaSwansonhttp://wapo.st/1Cv7RdE pic.twitter.com/3MUQOM9v0p

Vicious circle: The more aggressive #Putin is,the more Russians love him http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/04/30/a-vicious-circle-the-more-aggressive-putin-is-the-more-russians-love-him/ …
pic.twitter.com/n89ZLiJgjA

[OUTLAW 09]

A very interesting and perfect example of Russian disinformation warfare—the Ukraine has fulfilled a major piece of the Minsk 2 agreement 1) withdrew their heavy and that was verified by OSCE AND only return fire with mortars and artillery when they contact lines positions are on the verge of being overrun—ie self-defense, 2) they exchanged all the mercenary and Russian troop POWs they held, 3) they formulated and passed a special zone law applying to the occupied zones WHICH was tied to free and fair and monitored elections using Ukrainian election laws and run under Ukrainian law, and 4) they have received international aid to rebuild the Donbas that has been actually badly damaged by Russian troops and mercenaries.

The Russian mercenaries and Russia itself have virtually implemented nothing—did not exchange out the remaining verified alive 400 Ukrainian POWs-some were moved recently actually to Russia to avoid exchanging them and to be used as blackmail subjects, they did not pull all their heavy weapons off of the contact line and when they did it was not OSCE verified and the weapons were back a day later under the cover of darkness, they have not stopped shellings with heavy weapons and they continue to attack Ukrainian positions in what was suppose to be a "ceasefire".


http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150427/1021439520.html

EU is Critical of Ukraine’s Unwillingness to Implement Minsk Agreement
© Sputnik/ Vitaliy Belousov

Europe
16:41 27.04.2015


The Kiev government constantly delays the implementation of the Minsk Agreement, causing disapproval among European countries.

Critical voices are increasingly heard among the EU countries regarding the unwillingness of the Ukrainian government to implement provisions of the Minsk Agreement, “Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten” reported.

It particularly concerns Ukraine’s attempts to delay its implementation and reluctance to realize the decentralization agreed in Minsk.

NOTICE: Russian states not a single word on their constant viiolations of Minsk 2 by heavy weapons and their troops flowing into the Ukraine on a daily basis.NOR the fact that her mercenaries failed to complete the POW exchanges ALSO a key point in Minsk 2.

Moscow is not in favor of reviewing or amending the Minsk agreements on Ukraine reconciliation that has already been agreed upon by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.NOTICE when they mention critical voices are increasingly heard among EU countries Sputnik seems to fail to mention in the press release exactly what EU countries and who is making the statements--vagueness a mark of Russian disinformation--story sounds plausible but is in fact really nothing but false.

NOTICE they mention the German business newspaper but fail to quote day of publication nor the author of the alleged article.

This style of Russian disinformation is streaming daily into the global news cycle and much is actually picked up by western mainstream media, not fact checked and simply pushed as their own news cycle.

[OUTLAW 09]

An important read to understand Russian non linear warfare being currently applied to the Baltics and yet DC and the White House does not believe it happens--it is not just about the Ukraine now--the SACEUR was correct in his recent statement--it is global.

Russian blackmail: Russia doesn't allow Lithuania to lay electric cable to Sweden, forcing to http://joinfo.com/world/1002166_Russian-blackmail-Russia-doesnt-allow-Lithuania.html … pic.twitter.com/p7nJIj3Bfv

Sweden backs Lithuanian protest against Russia's conduct near NordBalt. http://m.en.delfi.lt/nordic-baltic/article.php?id=67860278 …

EUCOM's Gen. Breedlove: "Mr. Putin is not done in Ukraine," #Moldova also "an area of his concern & emphasis

Russian ships delaying works on NordBalt electricity link between Lithuania and Swedenhttp://www.delfi.lt/a/67852638

Seems that they “accepted international law to build an oil/gas pipeline for Gazporm in the Baltic BUT then conveniently “forget it” with this project above.

The Russians should know that it is the same Law of The Sea that made North Stream possible. http://www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/ryska-orlogsfartyg-uppges-ha-stort-nordbalt-bygget_4532954.svd …

Again double standards--I will do what I want to do and forbid you to do anything--is that not the thinking of a "hegemon power"??

[OUTLAW 09]

The former Soviet Union now Russia likes to talk often about their WW2 victory over Germany but TEND to forget the following as well ---their placing of over 300,000 Germans—men, women, children and old people into NKVD run concentration prisons (5) right after the war up to 1949 where the housing was virtually nothing and where the prisoners were staved and died due to poor living conditions/diseases all in the name of seeing if they were “Nazi’s”.

Thousands literally died and were never “Nazi’s”—it was a NKVD tactic to instill fear into the German population—notice even present day historians tend to not go in that research direction—nor do German historians.

Russian media regularly dismiss talk of Red Army rapes during WW2 as a Western myth...It was reality @VeikoSpolitis
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32529679?SThisFB&fb_ref=Default …

[OUTLAW 09]

#Shyrokyne through the lens of @shelomovskiy http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3697/shirokino_pod_mariupolem_samaya_goryachaya_tochka_ v_zone_ato_foto.html … pic.twitter.com/sA13pbQ0mV

BREAKING @24tvua reports about battle in #Pisky, near #Donetsk airport between #Ukraine forces & #Russia proxies. No #ceasefire! It's #war!

#Luhansk is awash with #Russian military vehicles. Victory day pre-party? https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=13&v=prctmO5ioCc … pic.twitter.com/jgceBik2lJ

This is extremely important in establishing an Ukrainian information link into these areas as the Russia mercenaries destroyed where they could anything TV/radio towers that were broadcasting Ukrainian radio/TV and substituted Russia broadcasts where they could--a key element in Russian informational warfare--control of the airwaves.

Broadcasting of #Ukrainian TV channels in Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Artemivsk due to #military http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/05/01/broadcasting-of-ukrainian-tv-channels-in-slovyansk-kramatorsk-and-artemivsk-due-to-military/ … pic.twitter.com/iawiFKNxsY

37 Battalion territorial defence Zaporozhye region "blows up" enemy tank at #Shyrokyne, 5am Saturday. One less RU "tractor" for Lentsov

Son of founder of #Russia propaganda media linked to FSB living it up in Brooklyn http://mashable.com/2015/05/01/russia-lifenews-founder-loves-nyc/#:eyJzIjoiZiIsImkiOiJfZWpld2Y2bWx0a3N3NzZzY2Vrc3o0 ZV8ifQ … pic.twitter.com/r3QrKJ6HWU

Exhibition of stolen cars in #Luhansk http://informator.lg.ua/?p=88573 Those cars are stolen fr/Volodymyr Landyk collection. pic.twitter.com/oaWXZDofKO

[OUTLAW 09]

Major Russian ground and shelling offensive push into this town over the last few days—not a single statement from ANY western leader—why is that is an interesting question?? The Ukraine has refrained form using heavy weapons as the West wants them to hold to Minsk 2 but then why do they ignore Russian direct violations--does that make sense to any SWJ reader???

How long would the US if in the same position withhold retaliating with massive force just because someone "asked" them too? AND the Ukrainian military manpower loses just keep on climbing.

Russia is attempting again to use military force in direct violation of Minsk 2 to expand the contact line and win more territory from the Ukrainians—and again silence from the West is the motto.

At some point one has to ask--does the West actually want to turn the Ukraine over to Russia regardless of what her civil society actually wants? --seems the US has "swapped" the Ukraine for Russian support in getting an Iranian deal--as all we hear from the US is the VP--not a single comment out of Obama in literally days.

Soldier from Avdiivka was saying that shootout sounded like already within city perimeter, so soon RU may be in the suburbs

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia keeps demanding an investigation of this incident from a year ago BUT always at the same time “fails” to mention it was a proRussian group that attacked an unarmed proUkrainian demonstration killing an Ukrainian before being beaten back and then fleeing with their fire bombs into the building—seems to be always “forgotten” in the Russian “narrative”.

There are indicators that the “proRussian” mercenaries had indeed wanted to take over Kharkiv, Mariupol and Odessa BUT basically failed due to the proUkrainian civil society pushing back against them. Even more indications are that Putin was actually surprised by this turn of events thus hesitated to send in early his “vacationing” troops--there has been some internal critique of this military "failure" that now has led to a protracted ground war as the Russian have been surprised by the Ukrainian military resilence.

One year from today 42 people died in Odessa. They were trapped in burning Professional Union House. pic.twitter.com/R5kmAWerGP

2 May 2014. 1 year ago Putin's plan for a "DNR" in #Odesa did not succeed: timeline of events
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/05/04/timeline-of-events-in-odesa-on-02-05-2014/ … pic.twitter.com/6mAHWeZXWS

[OUTLAW 09]

Militants use heavy artillery systems to shell ATO forces in Pisky, Shyrokyne, Avdiyivkahttp://www.unian.info/war/1074073-militants-use-heavy-artillery-systems-to-shell-ato-forces-in-pisky-shyrokyne-avdiyivka.html … pic.twitter.com/tuKDiiWUhb

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, May 2, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/fdBmrb4GF4

#Donetsk playground... The guy with gun and the child in the background may have the same IQ. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/594421468420808704 …

At 2AM russians attacked our positions at #Marinka.
Repelled, no losses. "Shmel" flamethrower captured. https://twitter.com/AMykhailova/status/594429300591480832 …

In Donetsk Russian militants rehearsing parade for 9 May http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/2-may-in-donetsk-russian-militants-rehearsing-parade-for … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/41Kk3IKYPM

On the deep, longstanding relations between the Kremlin & French far Right
http://anton-shekhovtsov.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/russia-and-front-national-following.html?m=1 … pic.twitter.com/nt7WBHCJXD

[OUTLAW 09]

Morning fighting and shelling cycle seems to be off on the side of the Russian troops and her mercenaries--relatively quiet this morning--might change later in the afternoon but I am sure they will not miss the evening attack cycles.

[OUTLAW 09]

Evening Russian mercenary and troops fighting and shelling cycle back on tonight.

#Novotoshkivske was shelled w/tanks and mortars via @InfoResist http://inforesist.org/novotoshkovku-obstrelyali-iz-tankov-i-minometov/?_utl_t=tw …

#News
A Russian attack w/ small arms,mortars,grenade launchers & at least one #BMP is happening on #Krymske since 15:20.

#News
A Battalion #Donbas trooper was severely injured during fighting in #Shyrokyne this morning. He's in hospital now.

US Mission to NATO ✔ @USNATO
Russia continues to undermine Minsk as violence in eastern Ukraine intensifies: http://goo.gl/JjCXKj pic.twitter.com/HjbQ6rea0k

14:25 @Villa_riba There was only 1 [RUS] checkpoint betw/#Bryanka & #Stakhanov today,near #Bryanka [w/ a couple of militants]

Many RU checkpoints in that area disappeared lately, like they need the fighters for something more important... In comments they say there was kind of the same thing before Debaltseve offensive. Checkpoints may slow down moving vehicles?

#Avdeevka
16:10 @bamr69 6 hits in the city
@GirkinGirkin Shelling continues fr/bypass-road, explosions near residential area

16:18 #Avdeevka @bamr69 "Nothing new: a mortar fires fr/bypass-road, comes close 6 shots & moves back. We had this last year"

#Donetsk 4:58PM
Close to the railway near the Putilovska there was an explosion. Smoke near the trolley bus parking https://twitter.com/kondrat619/status/594501230908547072 …

17:00 #Donetsk Proletarsky @DoneckiiPatriot Machine gun can be heard

#Donetsk
16:48 Proletarsky @DoneckiiPatriot Several single volleys since 16:43
16:50 @BylByleva Small arms from mil school
#donbasreports

Near #Krymske at 15:20 battle started, RU shelling Uk soldiers w grenades, mortars, heavy machine guns and from BMP. https://twitter.com/StopRussia2014/status/594495371277021184 …

#Avdiivka
At 15:50 there were volleys and hitting somewheare close.
Lasted 5-7 minutes, now quiet. https://twitter.com/JuZolyshkaLia/status/594501355705933825 …

#Donetsk 17:00
Proletarsky - hearing machine gun https://twitter.com/DoneckiiPatriot/status/594501852798005248 …

16:01 #Donetsk @Serzzze Rumble in the north, single outgoings like howitzers

RU force open fire from #Sokolniki w/ heavy weapons, civilians casualties reported - Геннадія Москаля, Lugansk Admin pic.twitter.com/b8cDqqGr2q

"Donbas" Battalion soldier wounded this morning during Russian forces/militia attack on #Shyrokyne near #Mariupol http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3703/v_shirokino_pod_mariupolem_ranen_boec_donbassa.htm l …

[OUTLAW 09]

Defence line is constructed near #Bakhmutka track @UKRINFORM http://www.ukrinform.ua/ukr/news/na_bahmutskiy_trasi_buduyut_liniyu_oboroni_foto_20 49519 … pic.twitter.com/4C1XiGOGjK

Nice analysis of the Russian phased attacks on Mariupol:
People forget: Russian military offensive against #Mariupol has already begun/comes in phases. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol_standoff_%28January_2015%E2%80%93present% 29#/media/File:Mariupol_2014-2015_en.jpg … pic.twitter.com/CO90mYBk2a

SBU detained a local resident planning to blow up defense structures in Kharkiv.
http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=141913&cat_id=39574 … pic.twitter.com/eYiQPEnWSt

SBU Alpha unit on Apr 30 detains in #Odesa RU terrorist with weapons and time bomb http://youtu.be/IcP14MFWO4w
via @Guderian_Xaba

[OUTLAW 09]

Evening Russian mercenary and troops fighting and shelling cycle back on tonight.

#Novotoshkivske was shelled w/tanks and mortars via @InfoResist http://inforesist.org/novotoshkovku-obstrelyali-iz-tankov-i-minometov/?_utl_t=tw …

#News
A Russian attack w/ small arms,mortars,grenade launchers & at least one #BMP is happening on #Krymske since 15:20.

#News
A Battalion #Donbas trooper was severely injured during fighting in #Shyrokyne this morning. He's in hospital now.

US Mission to NATO ✔ @USNATO
Russia continues to undermine Minsk as violence in eastern Ukraine intensifies: http://goo.gl/JjCXKj pic.twitter.com/HjbQ6rea0k

14:25 @Villa_riba There was only 1 [RUS] checkpoint betw/#Bryanka & #Stakhanov today,near #Bryanka [w/ a couple of militants]

Many RU checkpoints in that area disappeared lately, like they need the fighters for something more important... In comments they say there was kind of the same thing before Debaltseve offensive. Checkpoints may slow down moving vehicles?

#Avdeevka
16:10 @bamr69 6 hits in the city
@GirkinGirkin Shelling continues fr/bypass-road, explosions near residential area

16:18 #Avdeevka @bamr69 "Nothing new: a mortar fires fr/bypass-road, comes close 6 shots & moves back. We had this last year"

#Donetsk 4:58PM
Close to the railway near the Putilovska there was an explosion. Smoke near the trolley bus parking https://twitter.com/kondrat619/status/594501230908547072 …

17:00 #Donetsk Proletarsky @DoneckiiPatriot Machine gun can be heard

#Donetsk
16:48 Proletarsky @DoneckiiPatriot Several single volleys since 16:43
16:50 @BylByleva Small arms from mil school
#donbasreports

Near #Krymske at 15:20 battle started, RU shelling Uk soldiers w grenades, mortars, heavy machine guns and from BMP. https://twitter.com/StopRussia2014/status/594495371277021184 …

#Avdiivka
At 15:50 there were volleys and hitting somewheare close.
Lasted 5-7 minutes, now quiet. https://twitter.com/JuZolyshkaLia/status/594501355705933825 …

#Donetsk 17:00
Proletarsky - hearing machine gun https://twitter.com/DoneckiiPatriot/status/594501852798005248 …

16:01 #Donetsk @Serzzze Rumble in the north, single outgoings like howitzers

RU force open fire from #Sokolniki w/ heavy weapons, civilians casualties reported - Геннадія Москаля, Lugansk Admin pic.twitter.com/b8cDqqGr2q

"Donbas" Battalion soldier wounded this morning during Russian forces/militia attack on #Shyrokyne near #Mariupol http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3703/v_shirokino_pod_mariupolem_ranen_boec_donbassa.htm l …

And it just keeps on -------------------

Attack Reported On Bakhmutka Highway Village. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-439-large-military-convoy-arrives-in-lugansk/#8139 … pic.twitter.com/q2bl7g6XMV

How many farm and factory sheds in occupied Donbas? Each one could be hiding Russian weapons... (via @BuTaJIu4eK) pic.twitter.com/IQWQoawdyr

Russian army tanks from Buryatia fired from Holubivs'ke & mortars flew in from Zholobok (aycs on the map).
Source: Luhansk State Admin.

#BreakingNews
A heavy Russian army attack on #Novotoshkivske destroyed a shopping center and injured 1 civilian. pic.twitter.com/cPehZwJ5ZX

[OUTLAW 09]

This is interesting as the Germans have been strangely silent after all the Russian attacks/shellings on Ukrainian positions and their “secret” letter to the EU stating that the Ukraine is not implementing Minsk 2 which is basically a falsehood--- especially interesting is that Germany has not called out the constant Russian Minsk 2 violations.

Germany dreads any kind of confrontation with Russia & will not necessarily choose the US/NATO over Russia if threatened.

Russian MTS mobile network down in #Odessa today, reminiscent of episodes on EuroMaidan when telephones were blocked pic.twitter.com/Ntqpj8L8mG

Their separatist leaders are not always an easy bunch for Moscow to deal with. Rampant corruption only part of it. https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/04/28/eastern-ukraine-separatist-leader-reportedly-arrested-in-russia …

A very good article that destroys much of the myths built around Putin from his KGB overseas spy (US) days—from a senior KGB overseas agent who studied with Putin---in German.

„Putin hat niemals in der Aufklärung gearbeitet“ Kommilitone enthüllt heikle Details aus KGB-Zeit. Exklusiv übersetzthttp://reitschuster.de/index.asp?newsid=20654 …

[OUTLAW 09]

And it just keeps on -------------------

Attack Reported On Bakhmutka Highway Village. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-439-large-military-convoy-arrives-in-lugansk/#8139 … pic.twitter.com/q2bl7g6XMV

How many farm and factory sheds in occupied Donbas? Each one could be hiding Russian weapons... (via @BuTaJIu4eK) pic.twitter.com/IQWQoawdyr

Russian army tanks from Buryatia fired from Holubivs'ke & mortars flew in from Zholobok (aycs on the map).
Source: Luhansk State Admin.

#BreakingNews
A heavy Russian army attack on #Novotoshkivske destroyed a shopping center and injured 1 civilian. pic.twitter.com/cPehZwJ5ZX

And more attacks:

Today (00:00-18-00) RU forces attacked UKR positions 35 times, killing an elderly woman in the process – ATO https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=991852937492179&id=820651001279041&refid=17 …

ATO presser: #Avdiivka was under intense shelling today from anti-tank grenade launchers, 82mm & 120mm mortars, 122mm & 152mm artillery.

@Guderian_Xaba Krymske, Shchastya, Novotoshkivske and nearby "Proletarska" mine came unde fire from AGS, 120-mm mortars, heavy machine guns.

20:22 #Artemivsk @LennochkaLx Something has just exploded at central square

In the area of "Proletarska" and elderly woman was seriously injured in the shelling and died

17:20 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Bursts and mortars(?) can be heard from #Donetsk-#Spartak direction.

18:44 #Avdeevka
@rechnikato Close impacts again
20:15 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Far cannonade continues, like from #Pisky

20:16 #Donetsk @666_mancer "Was it Grad or just visuals in hung-over?"
20:32 #Donetsk Gvardeyka @vuiko65 Tank or SPG heard

#Donetsk
20:26 Shakhtarska @666_mancer Skirmishes here&there from NW
20:09-20:15 Proletarka @DoneckiiPatriot Single volleys

20:40 #Artemivsk @LennochkaLx No victims [of an explosion during the concert on the central square

#Spartak-airport area, at least 152-mm (artillery)
#Donetsk https://twitter.com/idinmor/status/594557923109527553 …

#Donetsk 9:22
Kyivsky district - very loud. Hearing powerful explosions from airport-#Spartak area. https://twitter.com/jackson_villi/status/594567651558608896 …

According to the Ukrainian military yesterday Ukrainian troops in #Shyrokyno wounded the militant leader Givi.

Earlier today (13:05) another Donbas trooper injured at #Shyrokyne, shot in the head by RU sniper.

To a military hospital 2 more WIA's arrived today from #Shyrokyno, one with broken arm, other shot in the head. http://www.0629.com.ua/news/815711

Sad news: Russia-led terrorists fired at Novotoshkivka village in Luhansk rgn today by tanks & mortars - gvnr Moskal http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/05/2/7066672/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Pro-Rus guy was looking for riots in #Odessa.
Instead, he found most relaxed police on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvemuaPtOME … pic.twitter.com/JD4LEEL2WF

Police reports no serious incidents occurred w/in commemoration events in #Odesa, minor arguments quickly resolvedhttp://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/05/2/7066677/ …

#Ukraine introduced stamps in passports when entering to #Donbas zone "DNR/LNR". via @p_pieniazek pic.twitter.com/6CQAbmHEbd

Russian fascist Alexander Dugin is addressing thousands of attentive listeners at Texas A&M. pic.twitter.com/JiAT7JPAZQ
Really thousands..................................

[OUTLAW 09]

#Komsomolske 9:28PM
Again launched rocket, horrible, but the people are accustomed. Today they shot down a UAV. https://twitter.com/MEGGER_I/status/594569110689849344 …

Militants violate Donbas truce 35 times on Saturday
http://www.unian.info/war/1074177-militants-violate-donbas-truce-35-times-on-saturday.html … pic.twitter.com/S0NsUMZiS0

#Donetsk 21:48
Proletarsky - hear far away, powerfully single shots. https://twitter.com/DoneckiiPatriot/status/594574462709825537 …

#Donetsk 21:45
Intensity of outgoing shelling increases. https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/594574417361018880 …

#Avdiivka 21:30
Again incoming shelling https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/594570045453410304 …

#Donetsk
20:43 @idinmor Just now explosion in #Spartak-Airport area, 'not less than 152mm'

#Donetsk
@Buzzing_Rook Sporadic heavy heavy explosions the 2nd day in a row

21:02 #Donetsk @idinmor Mortar [UKR] bombs & shells hit airport area consistently

22:05 @gradigrad How do you distinguish [UKR fr/RUS]?

21:30 @GirkinGirkin: '#Avdeevka listens to explosions of Putin's shells again'

#Footage
Russian victory parade rehearsal in occupied #Donetsk city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsSouhL02HE …
pic.twitter.com/lOYQItykJq

Direct violation of Minsk 2 by Russian mercenaries and Russian troops

21:19 #Donetsk Kirovsky ds @902Albi Heavy volleys heard

#Donetsk
21:13 @relictDon Loud volleys in the NW

21:18 @old_dn Heavy incoming&outgoing in #Pisky/#Spartak/airport

21:21 #Donetsk @Darren_Aro 'Evening-night arty again

#Donetsk
21:21 Semashko St @jackson_villi Windows vibrate

21:22 Kyivsky ds @jackson_villi Heavy explosions in Spartak-Airport

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian mercenaries in Ukraine posted pictures showing off the financial perks of their job

pic.twitter.com/jYnSVbFcfH

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.warcouncil.org/blog/2015/5/2/the-future-of-warfare-in-five-drawings

PART ONE of TWO

The Future of Warfare in Five Drawings
May 02, 2015

*Editor's Note: A version of this essay will be presented as remarks to the War Council event on May 4, 2015. The panel discussion will be focused on the dominant trend that will shape warfare over the next 20 years.


The Continuum of Conflict

[QUOTE]Why do bad things happen to good people?

It’s a question that we had better start thinking about. Because when enough people start thinking this thought, when a critical mass of people start thinking this thought – whether it’s due to barrel bombs or burning pilots or killing cadets – that’s when society calls for the use of force.

That's right; in modern war, we kill cadets. Last June the majority of the 1,700 cadets at the Iraqi air force academy were “gunned down as they marched out of the camp to take their [summer] leave.”

Even cadets are in play and a legitimate target to ISIS. This is the world we live in. I don’t write this to attempt to scare people into studying war. I do so analytically. These are the facts, and they are facts we must learn from. If we think critically about our environment, we can learn from it.

One example: in November 1940, the British struck the Fascist Italian Navy at Taranto Harbor by projecting aircraft from carriers - firing aerial torpedoes in shallow water – against docked battleships. Sound like Pearl Harbor? It should – this attack was what gave Admiral Yamamoto the idea that an attack on Pearl was possible.

Modern war can teach us, if we only choose to pay attention. I often describe strategy as an art, like painting or musical performance. And so it is imperative that we listen to the “music” that’s playing right now in Yemen, in Ukraine, and Syria and Iraq.

It's weird, but when we're educating members of the Profession of Arms we often set our gaze too far behind us. I don't write this to disparage history, clearly, it's study and use can be helpful. Yet limited. Historians cover war as it was at one point in the past. Beyond that, we believe that we can learn about contemporary military operations indirectly from other's experiences. This also is limited. Just think about how different the world is since I last fought in Iraq in 2006. As Tom Friedman put it:

"Facebook didn't exist. Twitter was still a sound. The cloud was still in the sky. 4G was a parking place. Linkedin was a prison. Applications were what you sent to college. Big Data was [an obscure] rap star. And Skype was a typographical error."

So my experiences in Iraq, and those with experience in Afghanistan, are helpful, but not sufficient. We have to get much better at studying current and coming conflict. We can't just leave it all to the newspaper editors and journalists. We will fight out there, in the yet-to-be discovered future. That's what really matters, why we ought to think about these things now.

How the U.S. Army Sees the Future

I drew this to help think through how the U.S. Army sees future war. I see the central tension as between trends & technology (non-stop change) and history & humanity (continuous continuity). What will win the next war? Humans or tech? Where should we place our bets? With natural constraints and choices to be made, there is always a fight over how to spend them.

It’s sort of like a music producer trying to decide between supporting a record by, say, the electronica of a Daft Punk or the full throated imperfection of a Johnny Cash. Which will be more successful in the world we live in?

The technologists focus on trends and believe that everything is changing. For example, technologists might believe that the revolution in military affairs + net-centric war that “lifts the fog of war” will give us rapid, decisive operations. As the saying goes, "if we can see it, we can kill it," and in the future we’ll be able to see everything.

At least two British senior officers have published books endorsing this view. General Sir David Richards and Greg Mills write in their book Victory Among People: “Conventional war is a thing of the past…Why should [our enemies] risk everything in a conventional attack, if they can instead achieve their aims through the use of proxies, or through economic subterfuge and cyber-warfare?” General Sir Rupert Smith’s book, The Utility of Force: “War [as we knew it] no longer exists.” Of course, that’s too far; we shouldn’t just throw out the book of human experience with war. This was the post-9/11 conceit: the belief that we lived in a new world where none of the old rules applied. Over time, as depicted in the drawing above, our belief in battlefield technology was shattered as $265 bombs successfully struck American soldiers, imposing costs numbering in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

There’s another view that has become dominant. It goes like this: war is human, and humans have not changed. Therefore, war will be as it always was. There’s a push in the Department of Defense to support the "human dimension," what we are now calling the Human Aspects of Military Operations (or "HAMO" - pronounced hay-mo). Interestingly, this follows the private sector's turn. LRN CEO Dov Seidman described this recently as it pertains to corporate advertising:

"Chevron is now 'The Human Energy Company.' Dow is 'The Human Element.' Deere is 'Human Flourishing.' Ally Bank is 'time to bank human again.' Samsung is competing with Apple by saying 'Designed by Humans.' Every institution is starting to proclaim its humanity."

Historians can fall deeply into this belief. Consider Cornell University’s Barry Strauss, a well-regarded classicist, who recently, without any irony, used Cyrus the Great's example as a framework to guide American Middle East policy, and that modern North Korea can be explained as a sort of Sparta with nuclear weapons. This is too much. Clausewitz warned of the use of poor and inappropriate historical examples; he was right.

The Gulf War convinced us that technology was our silver bullet; Iraq and Afghanistan have convinced us to turn away from technology. I think we’ve overcorrected, and we will do so at our peril.

[OUTLAW 09]

PART TWO of the above article:


Exponential Information Warfare

We are living through the dawn of exponential information warfare. Though it's early, we should look to the trendlines, not just the headlines. When we do, we'll find that there's reason to believe information warfare has yet more room to grow.

In 1997, 2% of world’s population was online. We’re now at 3 billion people online, which is 40% of the world's population. Though 80% of the people in rich countries use the internet, only 30% do so in developing countries. Companies like Google and SpaceX are in a race to provide these people the internet, going so far as developing “sky-fi” – satellite/high altitude balloon internet service. Projections are that by 2020, 80% of adults will own a smartphone connected to the internet.

The influence of this trend is growing. Think of Psy's "Gangham Style" video (2.3 billion views and growing). Kony2012 (34 million views on it's first day) or #bringbackourgirls. Abu Ghraib, Collateral Murder. "Little Green Men" and #RussiaInvadedUkraine. Even a 16 year old singer from New Zealand can be heard world-wide. If Steve Jobs' innovation was to put 1,000 songs in your front pocket, his second trick, the iPhone, has put 1,000 wars in your back pocket.

Why are we seeing this growth? In one word: cheap. The Russians have spent $140 million to develop Sputnik, their information carrier to 25 world offices - in places like Beijing, Berlin, Washington - with 30-100 staffers each, providing radio and foreign language websites in each to get the Kremlin's message out. After Sochi, it appears Putin has embraced the economical output that exponential information warfare provides. And, it's effective. As one Crimean resident put it, “Goebbels has got nothing on these guys.” Russia Today (also known as "RT") has 600 million viewers world wide, and their accompanying YouTube channel has has 1 billion views.

What can exponential information warfare do? For starters, it levels the playing field. Everyone is equal on the internet. Let's put a spin on the old "three guys walk in a bar" joke. Imagine that Bill Gates, Pope Francis, and I are in an internet discussion forum (or simultaneously on Facebook). Though in real life we have radically different stations, on the internet, individually, neither of them has a natural advantage or privilege over me.

Information warfare doubles the suffering by hurting the victim and then impacting the viewer. And, lastly, it works: as Osama bin Laden wrote to Mullah Omar in 2002, “It is obvious that the media war in this century is one of the strongest methods; in fact, its ration may reach 90% of the total preparation for the battles.”

What does this all mean? If we live in a world where everyone has a phone - which means everyone has a camera - then everyone can be a land war correspondent. There’s even an app for that: Periscope - perfect for live streaming in public riots or to document war crimes.

One example: in 2006, 75 Tibetans tried to leave for Nepal, to freely practice Buddhism, through the Nangpa La pass (19,000 feet). Chinese PLA border guards opened fire on them, killing a 17 year old nun. Even at this high elevation, in this remote environment, a Romanian photographer took video of the incident – and shamed the PLA for their actions, bringing on a global shaming campaign. The lesson: our soldiers and military will be on camera wherever they go, particularly on land!

One more thought: a recent study of smartphone use found that Baby Boomers used their smartphones 10% of day; Generations X and Y used them 25% of day; Millenials were about double that at 45% of the day. It is not hard to make the logical leap that as Milennials grow into leadership roles in the government and business that they will figure out new ways to employ these technologies to advance strategic causes. The "Digital Natives" will find new and scarier ways to wield exponential information warfare.

In short, the future of warfare is information because war goes where people “are” and threatens what they value – the more people that enter the digital world – the more war we’ll see there.

The Disaggregation of Strategic Victory

Assuming that my logic is sound, how should we think about military victory? With apologies to Notorious B.I.G. - mo’ information, mo’ problems.

I've written about this once before, but here goes with an adaptation. The old way to military victory was to defeat the army and everything would follow. This worked with Napoleon, Hitler, and should hold true against the likes of North Korea. I like to call this the "single haymaker" – one punch – theory of victory.

But we live in a world where CDs are a thing of the past – why would anyone buy and entire album when they only like two songs? We’ve seen the disaggregation, the fracturing, of music purchases.

The same is true in war. Modern wars are contested in three separate places: fought on fields of fire for victory, prosecuted by politicians for power, and argued through advocates for an accepted narrative. The military creates the monopoly of violence; politicians certify this new monopoly; and the people consecrate the monopoly on violence by choosing a particular narrative that supports the monopoly's continuance.

Strategic victory in war has fractured. We have to account for all three much more than we ever have before.

But there’s one other subtle point – I’ve suggested the disaggregation – but I also want to suggest that the balance has shifted. As the image above depicts, the human head weighs about 7 percent of a human's total body weight while the arms weigh about 5 percent. The body (from the torso down, including the heart) is a person's mass. In today's world, roughly as the metaphor in the image is apportioned, defeating the military (arms) and convincing the political elite (head) may be challenging while also the relatively smaller part of the total effort in modern warfare.

In short, when facing a disaggregated enemy, the strategic narrative matters more. This was true in Afghanistan and Iraq, I think, largely due to the growth in significance in information warfare – the dawn of exponential information warfare.
How should we think about the future of warfare?

First, one must cultivate a deep sense of humility – we should pursue the course I like to call "strategic modesty." We must expect that neither the pure techno-optimists or the myopic historians will have the answer. We must avoid single, stove piped, mono-disciplinary approaches to understanding modern warfare. The battlefield punishes intellectual vanity. Achilles is dead.

Second, in one word, the future of warfare will be “surprising.” What we prepare for will not be what we see, precisely because the enemy will avoid what we are prepared to do. Do not expect to anticipate everything your enemy does; you do not have the psychic powers of Miss Cleo or that Octopus that picks winners at the World Cup. Give credit to our enemies; they are smart and always fight better than we expect.

Ultimately, what I’m most certain of is that when enough good people start asking why bad things are happening, we will inevitably send soldiers to the wrong place at the right time. Both these facts are inevitable. Those in the Profession of Arms and beyond have an obligation to think through the coming conflict.

Prepare your mind - reason matters much more than the radio or rifle - that's where wars are really won.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russians, stop shelling Donetsk! Let me make some tea!

So where is the outrage from the US, EU, German, French leaders?????

21:24 #Donetsk Kirovsky, Biryuzova @xy_gorlov4an Rumble, windows vibrate, like in Pisky-airport direction

21:38 #Donetsk NW @gradigrad I can hear small arms bursts sometimes

#Donetsk Regional central clinic hosp @alexrigkreg Heavy volleys, 3-4 shells each

21:42 #Donetsk @902Albi Heavy volleys, 'they sound from different positions'

[OUTLAW 09]

After the massive and intensive Russian shellings tonight Minsk 2 is basically dead.

Want to bet that nothing about this evenings intensive shellings by Russian troops and her mercenaries is not mentioned by Washington, Paris, Berlin and or London---willing to bet a Starbuck's on it.

WAR is back on and there is no arguing about it now!!!!!!

@OSCE_SMM Open your eyes and clean your ears in Donetsk please, shashlyk and brandy can wait a bit,

BREAKINGNEWS
The fighting in #Donetsk City is escalating. Massive artillery shelling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rviy8zNUg7g … …
pic.twitter.com/2CaqpfoDqD

Reports of Russian army trucks with infantry streaming into Donetsk as Russian forces resumed heavy shelling of nearby Ukrainian positions.

#BREAKING
Chief #terrorist Givi gave an interview,1 hour before the shelling started!
Listen!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbR1b4aGYbk … pic.twitter.com/Os5u0wes3E

Heavy artillery!
There is multiple #footage,shelling started at 10pm.
Here is one video uploader who speaks English.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uAdozTrba4 …

#Donetsk s
22:49 Outgoing fr/Scheglovka, hits to airport area, loudly, large calibre

#Donetsk s
22:46 2 min ago heavy shelling - 1 explosion each 1-3 sec like Spartak

#Donetsk tonight
pic.twitter.com/GhE6UmH6Vl

#Donetsk
22:45 Roofed market: Close outgoing - volley and explosion in 2-3 sec, 152mm

#Donetsk
22:45 "It is started, intense volleys"
22:45 "Very loud rumbles now"
22:45 Kalinvka: Hiss over the houses

#Donetsk
22:44 Gvardeyka: "Windows vibrates, intense glow in #Pisky direction, car alarms went off"

#Donetsk
22:43 Putilovka: Hiss, flashes, rumble; Oktyabr area: mortar bombs impacts; Gvardeyka: heavy close rumbles

#Donetsk
22:43 Kyivsky: Rumble, close incoming; Azotny: incoming,location unclear; Putilovka: heavy impacts

There were reports on hits to Putilovka and unverified info on impacts on Kyivsky district.

00:10 #Donetsk @ropogckou It looks like it is quiet for now
#donbasreports
But there are many previous reports for me to translate

Heavy artillery shelling reported in Donetsk tonight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uAdozTrba4 … pic.twitter.com/B50Qb4hQxt

Pro-Russian propaganda knows the caliber and calls it "incoming".
But it's not!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BDCQ6wAbYI …

Russian Propaganda resumes work again with "Ukrainians attacked Donetsk" etc. pic.twitter.com/hWmHzYlrAN

Source in #Donetsk reports heavy fire, 120mm mortar shot from inside the city. Info still to be confirmedpic.twitter.com/H7VHhQIEPP

[OUTLAW 09]

War is on and the West simply sleep walks through it--strange that there is no US leadership and Germany is going proRussian.

What is now happening tonight in eastern Ukraine is a direct result of the slow to no actions being taken by the US and a direct result by the West in general that assumes one can use "soft power" when engaging Putin.

Plus it now proves "diplomacy" never works without a military backup plan.

East Ukraine militia claim Kiev troops plan large-scale provocations for May 8 and 9 http://tass.ru/en/world/792525

#BREAKINGNEWS
The situation in #Donetsk City is escalating tonight Massive shelling
#ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rviy8zNUg7g … pic.twitter.com/2CaqpfoDqD

Unconfirmed reports of #Russia|n infantry is advancing from #Donetsk under cover from artillery fire
Via @StateOfUkraine

Volunteer now at a Ukrainian position just north of #Donetsk: Russian infantry is advancing under artillery cover from multiple directions

[OUTLAW 09]

Last night is the perfect example of Russian non linear warfare meaning how they balance military aggression with their informational warfare.

Last night Russian troops and her mercenaries literally rained shells, and MLRSs onto Ukrainian positions had a level not seen since the heavy Cyborg airport fighting in Donetsk.

The Ukraine still standing by it's do not return fire unless deeply threatened-- refrained massively from returning fire as evidenced by the heavy shelling damage in the Ukraine zones but nothing on the mercenary occupied side of the contact line--all ground attacks were pushed back as well.

MINSK 2 is all but dead and the West is not saying a single beep, utterance or word out of fear as they have not much else to say or do--and they are on the US side seriously afraid of sending defensive weapons which in effect would be the red line in the sand that is greatly needed at this time in space--so much for US leadership--there basically is none.

NOW see the immediate Russian FM responses this morning.

ONE thing that is not evident and is makes viewing Russian intentions very easy and I do not think they realize it--they are making the same basic mistake an infantry unit makes when they keep walking over the same trail repeatedly--they set up a pattern that is hard to break AND they do not see the pattern emerging.

The Russian info war is now at the same point--this is the key--when they say something they actually mean the opposite--this has become more apparent over the last three months because I think they have let their mindset start dictating their responses ie they are making it personal and at that point you lose control of the messaging and it becomes simply a "narrative" to parrot over and over. AND "narratives" are hard to control because they are easily disprovable.

So when they "claim it was the Ukrainians doing the heavy shelling"--simply read the statement as to mean "hey it was us doing the shelling"--if they state the Ukrainians are not implementing Minsk 2--then it is "hey it is us not implementing Minsk 2". If they state--the east militia knows of Ukrainian plans to assault on 8/9 May read it to mean "hey we have plans to assault the Ukrainian positions".

We often try to make things appear to be more difficult than they really are--the Russian info warfare messaging is getting rather simple to decipher.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Ukrainian armed forces had begun shelling Donetsk using heavy artilleryhttps://www.facebook.com/MIDRussia/posts/633081700124608

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Russian FM #Lavrov urges #OSCE to demand Kiev stop violating Minsk agreementshttp://tass.ru/en/world/792854

Extensive damage to housing and public buildings as it is easier to get out and check shelling damage.

Shelling in #Donetsk last night was heaviest since storm of the airport locals say, many stayed the night in shelters
http://www.dialog.ua/news/53753_1430600860 …

Column of #Russia|n vehicles in Zuhres on May 1st:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUpGY0OMuVU …

ATO confirms #Avdeevka was under GRAD fire last night, 40 rockets rained down.

WHAT is an utter disbelief on my part is knowing that the US ISR capabilities are "seeing" Russian Minsk 2 violations hourly, daily, weekly, monthly AND yet it is the social media that is carrying the pushback and "proof of evidence". Ask yourself the following question--after literally billions being spent on truly high tech ISR abilities for Iraq and AFG we "do not know what is ongoing in eastern Ukraine"--come on--if we do not then it is time to fire the entire JCoS and the SecDef.

Even the Russians openly challenged the US to prove they are in the Ukraine twice in the last six months AND yet utter silence except for four sat photos that Russian laughed off on--that silence just emboldens the Russian military adventure even more.

The West has a brilliant opportunity to push back and negate all Russian info warfare and Russian political moves by calling the UNSC into session and if not the UNSC then the entire UN Assembly as Russia is in blatant violation of even the basic UN Charter as they are clearly the "aggressor", lay the ISR on the table and back it up with open source materials that have been verified down to geo tagging and do it for hours in front of the global media.

WHEN judge the Russian responses based on the provided evidence calling out every single Russian violation hourly is need be--THEN you finally control the messaging--but based on "truth" not "narratives".

BUT here is the inherent question "does the entire western civilian leadership have the leadership capacity to do that"--and IMO they do not--we are seemingly in a moment of "serious lack of political will by any western leader'.

So Russia will take whatever it feels like is "their rights as an expanding imperialistic nation"--in effect the entire western civilian leadership is "enabling Putin"--it is as simple as that.

Sometimes political decisions are actually simple and yet the entire western civilian leadership is afraid to make them

How do I know I am right---watch the comments or better yet lack of comments on the excessive Russian heavy shellings from last night--which are a complete and utter violation of Minsk 2 as everything with a 100mm caliber plus was used last night AND used from locations inside the "so called disengage zone from the contact line"--let's see what is said and who makes any statement from the West.

BTW--their has been a total lack of western civilian leadership comments on the massive run up to last night that has been ongoing for now a week AND there was not a single comment on it by any western leader--strange is it not?? Ever wonder why that is??

Again a Starbuck's coffee challenge --who makes the first public comment against the Russian aggression from last night??? If none then I will buy myself one if a comment comes then I will buy for them a Starbuck's of their choice here in Berlin.

BTW--the current foreign policy strategy of "soft power" is after yesterday an utter "failure". The total lack of a will to use and or threaten the use of "hard power" effectively kills anything this current administration has for a foreign policy.

Notice Putin and company does not have a problem in threatening the use of tactical nuclear weapons when they think it can score points and freeze western thinking--which BTW it did.

Think about it--the Iranian IRGC publicly and openly threatens a US flagged ship, we issue a maritime warning is our response, then they physically take a ship AND then what is our response--let's send along a DDG with every US flagged ship--WHY was that not done immediately after the first encounter with the IRGC-notice in the US media that question was strangely absent??

When "soft power" is your policy--one always delays using the "hard power potion"--that happened and a US flagged ship was basically captured and diverted on a globally recognized international traffic lane.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hate to have been correct in my assumption that the current western leaders have absolutely no leadership skills in addressing Putin or for that matter
Iran.

Early evening in Berlin and no public responses to the massive shellings yesterday--one would have heard something from the Germans and French and yet silence is the evident language of western civil leaders.


More Russian fake news blaming the Ukrainians for last night’s massive shellings.
Here we go!Basuring is on Russian state TV & lies, #Ukraine started firing at #Donetsk city.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGaT3OqwbwY … pic.twitter.com/4KyRBxA851

In 24 hrs pro-RU terror-s violated ceasefire 28 tms with MLRS Grad: #ATO spox
http://donbass.hromadskeradio.org/2015/05/03/mezhdu-donetskom-i-avdeekoy-nochyu-shel-artilleriyskiy-boy/ … pic.twitter.com/Th9iFr9Rlf
Massive violation of Minsk 2 by Russian and YET no western responses???
First aftermath of yesterdays shelling in #Donetsk
pic.twitter.com/tR02wZbHNZ

#Ukraine crisis: Shells rip through homes in #Donetsk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32575170 … with @TomBurridgebbc & @Timfacey pic.twitter.com/8jQ2QNv1eb

#News
"Life stopped in September", #Hranitne residents say.
They live in cellars due to daily Russian shelling. pic.twitter.com/vzJrmjcbCs

In #Maryinka all night was a battle, the 2nd night in a row. Our guys are repelling but w/o heavy equipment its hard https://twitter.com/AMykhailova/status/594847018876588033 …
This again proves that the Ukrainians are desperately attempting to hold to Minsk 2 at the risk of losing more territory and manpower due to western pressure--BUT when it gets hard the West does not support them.

Drone films huge arsenal of #Russia|n tanks, heavy weapons hidden near schools & kindergartens in eastern #Ukrainehttps://youtu.be/7dM1F2n9JbU
direct violation of Minsk 2 and yet not called out by the West.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian #DNR militia parade on May 2 in #Donetsk. https://youtu.be/yt5lQE6vMCI pic.twitter.com/YuHLYm1DDN

Column of Russian army APCs heading west from Rostov to Taganrog (then west to Novoazovsk?) via @el_roosevelt pic.twitter.com/kDdcl6svQT

Somali gang,#Donetsk African students decided to make some extra cash or just kind of masquerade for TV? @DobryShubin pic.twitter.com/EKnKzGwq2W

Russian tanks storage in residential area of #Donetsk near kindergarten & school
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dM1F2n9JbU …

Russia Engaging in 'Hybrid War' With Europe, Says Former Nato Chief Rasmussen http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/3-may-russia-engaging-in-hybrid-war-with-europe-says-former …

Foreign Ministry of Lithuania summoned the Russian ambassador to express strong protest https://www.urm.lt/default/en/news/foreign-ministry-of-lithuania-summoned-the-russian-ambassador-to-express-strong-protest …

Chairman of Mil. Committee Knud #Bartels: "@NATO ready to defend all Allies against any threat" http://www.defencematters.org/index.php?page=article&art_id=23 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian tanks at Stakhanov Ferroalloy Plant http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/3-may-russian-tanks-at-stakhanov-ferroalloy-plant … pic.twitter.com/gSjNXgleZC

Another Russian soldier in the Ukraine—taken from his Russian VK pages:
pic.twitter.com/X8ByGSUGi2

Swedish Navy ship near Latvia. Previously spotted Ru vessels in that area pic.twitter.com/1vLAQ9MrzN http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/3-may-swedish-navy-ship-near-latvia …

RUS strategic airlift operation continues 03MAY15. Transports expected from Petrozavodsk,Yekaterinburg,Tver,Chkalovsky

Latest Russian claim on MH17 is debunked in 12 seconds. http://wp.me/p55l6P-yl

German article on “fake Russian propaganda”:

GER ARTIKEL
Von Babuschkas und Mittelstreckenraketen. Fauxpas in russischer Ukraine-Propaganda
http://conflictreport.info/2015/05/03/von-babuschkas-und-mittelstreckenraketen-fauxpas-in-russischer-ukraine-propaganda/ … pic.twitter.com/zACuIroQd2

In 12 months of #war in e. #Ukraine 8 #journalists were killed, 40 captured but not yet all released - report. http://nmpu.org.ua/2015/05/nmpu-zaklykaje-v-den-svobody-presy-zhadaty-zahyblyh-ta-postrazhdalyh-zhurnalistiv/ …

NOTE:--a key point in Minsk 2 is the complete exchange of civilian and military POWS--WHICH Russia has not done--in fact they stopped al exchanges and YET claim the Ukraine is not in compliance with Minsk2--total Russian hypocrisy

[OUTLAW 09]

Will be interesting to see if social media calls it right tonight with the Russian shellings.

#Map
Targets of Russian artillery shelling tonight, according to @novostidnua and other sources.

pic.twitter.com/QqGzRxSkeG

At least they are more proactive than the entire US intel community and the President of the US and his NSC.

[OUTLAW 09]

Obama, his NSC, the JCoS and the SecDef need to truly "wake up and smell the coffee" and fully understand the power of "weaponized information".

We invented the internet and have Silicon Valley and YET our use of "weaponized information" coupled with the power of social media and the internet makes us look like literally "beginners".

We created social media and YET fail to understand the ability to "use it like a weapons system".

We talked often during Iraq and AFG about money being a "weapons system" BUT when it comes "information warfare as a weapons system" we are "babes in the woods" and totally lost.

The Baltimore Sun ✔ @baltimoresun
Many tweets purporting to be from Baltimore riots came from Russia, China and India. http://bsun.md/1FGFkDc pic.twitter.com/4fzc7s09bQ

BTW--it was social media that pin pointed and visualized the 20,000 Russian bot social media network--AND did it make the mainstream US media????

Social media--and our intel community--where were they exactly??

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia looking to justify next military offensive in #Ukraine
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/russian-separatist-forces-cite-shelling-to-justify-next-offensive-387714.html … pic.twitter.com/Yr37Mcof16

RFE/RL journalists filmed a column of military vehicles with howitzers in Donetsk at 01.00 pm, May 3, 2015 http://www.radiosvoboda.org/media/video/26991549.html …

#News
A Battalion #Donbas trooper from #Lutsk was killed in #Shyrokyne over the last 48 hours.
#UkraineUnderAttack pic.twitter.com/w1eUYl7nnG

2nd video of Russian military convoy in Luganks also geo-located: http://lugansk-news.com/video-of-milit … pic.twitter.com/SKAMtM0FZz

The writer, who supported the invaders now accused #Russia in the destruction of #Crimea
http://ukraineenglishnewsforum.createaforum.com/general-discussion/ukraine-crisis-news-in-brief-sunday-03-may(ukrainian-sources)/msg6101/#msg6101 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Just how is it possible that billions spent on US intel ISR capabilities is constantly being beaten by simple social media open source analysts with a "fraction" of the money spent by the US IC?

How @bellingcat is revealing the story of #Russia's military presence in #Ukraine: http://www.storybench.org/how-citizen-journalists-tap-silk-a-new-visualization-platform-to-tell-underreported-stories/ … pic.twitter.com/3SlmK0NTqv

Without the social media analysis of the MH17 shot down the Dutch would not be as far as long with their investigation--where was the US IC launch data which they must have--if they do not then they should be literally fired from their jobs unless defense contractors had the contract and it did not include the Ukraine??

[OUTLAW 09]

Here we go again—off an running for this evening's shellings that naturally "are the fault of the Ukrainians"—let’s see if social media got the Russian target set for tonight correct.

@Guderian_Xaba Russians are shelling Ukr positions with 152mm self propelled artillery. #Shyrokyno
Really serious Minsk 2 violation as anything over 100mm caliber had to be withdrawn so what is it doing back inside the withdrawal zone??

Heavy shelling can be heard in #Mariupol, from the east. Smoke rising from #Shyrokyne area.
via @Guderian_Xaba

Heavy battle in #Avdeevka, #Optyne-#Spartak area, artillery working on both sides
via @Guderian_Xaba

#Zuhres, Russian military hardware column
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUpGY0OMuVU … pic.twitter.com/xXPaycTFVr

#Shyrokyne combat footage near #Mariupol east #Ukraine. Journalist has close call. Footage: Noah Brooks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmzR8d0lxhI

[OUTLAW 09]

Obama, his NSC, the JCoS and the SecDef need to truly "wake up and smell the coffee" and fully understand the power of "weaponized information".

We invented the internet and have Silicon Valley and YET our use of "weaponized information" coupled with the power of social media and the internet makes us look like literally "beginners".

We created social media and YET fail to understand the ability to "use it like a weapons system".

We talked often during Iraq and AFG about money being a "weapons system" BUT when it comes "information warfare as a weapons system" we are "babes in the woods" and totally lost.

The Baltimore Sun ✔ @baltimoresun
Many tweets purporting to be from Baltimore riots came from Russia, China and India. http://bsun.md/1FGFkDc pic.twitter.com/4fzc7s09bQ

BTW--it was social media that pin pointed and visualized the 20,000 Russian bot social media network--AND did it make the mainstream US media????

Social media--and our intel community--where were they exactly??

AND a perfect example from the Ukrainian front:

To coincide with "third party" (according to Russian military) attack on Donetsk, Kremlin trolling campaign begins! pic.twitter.com/Yi1kfJTnvS

According to their own drawing, in this stpd way they (RU) admit they fire from residential areas

#Russian trolls are desperate now. Latest claim on #MH17 is debunked in 12 seconds: http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17.com/russian-trolls-are-desperate-now-latest-claim-on-mh17-is-debunked-in-12-seconds/ … pic.twitter.com/hgxQ9kSDsP

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia looking to justify next military offensive in #Ukraine
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/russian-separatist-forces-cite-shelling-to-justify-next-offensive-387714.html … pic.twitter.com/Yr37Mcof16

RFE/RL journalists filmed a column of military vehicles with howitzers in Donetsk at 01.00 pm, May 3, 2015 http://www.radiosvoboda.org/media/video/26991549.html …

#News
A Battalion #Donbas trooper from #Lutsk was killed in #Shyrokyne over the last 48 hours.
#UkraineUnderAttack pic.twitter.com/w1eUYl7nnG

2nd video of Russian military convoy in Luganks also geo-located: http://lugansk-news.com/video-of-milit … pic.twitter.com/SKAMtM0FZz

The writer, who supported the invaders now accused #Russia in the destruction of #Crimea
http://ukraineenglishnewsforum.createaforum.com/general-discussion/ukraine-crisis-news-in-brief-sunday-03-may(ukrainian-sources)/msg6101/#msg6101 …

More "fake" Russian PR to get their provocation and excuse to go onto the offensive that they really want to start with Russian troop support.

#DPR: "Eight people killed in shelling of #Donetsk Republic, inches away from start of full-scale hostilities"

From the local population in the occupied zone--seems to have been no one killed last night as the shellings were headed to the Ukrainian side. and Ukrainian return fire was at mercenary artillery positions and or attacking mercenary infantry.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1568-propaganda-vs-information-policy

Propaganda vs. Information Policy

27 April 2015 08:35

Adam Reichardt


The Ukraine crisis, which began with the EuroMaidan protests at the end of November 2013 escalating to a full-blown revolution by mid-February 2014 with the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych and later leading to the Russian annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas, has exposed a key component of Russian foreign policy – its propaganda. Even before the escape of Yanukovych from Kyiv, Russian propaganda was elevated and the information war became one of the main fronts of the conflict. Soon, questions as to who was at fault for the Ukrainian situation, new narratives on history and a fear that ultra-right nationalists were taking over in Kyiv spread to Berlin, Paris, London and New York. It was a clear sign that not only was Russian propaganda effective, it also found a receptive audience in many Western countries around the world.

The aim of Russian propaganda is simple (when I refer to Russian propaganda in this case, I am not discussing the Russian media internally, rather my focus in this essay is on Russian information policy outside the country). In fact, it is often that we do not really understand this aim. In this crisis, the Russian propaganda machine is not designed to convince the West that Russia is right and Ukraine is terrible (though it helps when people change opinions in favor of Russia). The aim, rather, of the propaganda actions is to add confusion and noise to the mainstream narrative, which is usually based on facts. What’s more, Russia does not need to create a network of supporters in the West, it just adds encouragement to extremist groups that have a track record of being anti-mainstream, anti-West, but especially anti-American. This includes groups like traditional allies of Russia in Europe such as the far left, but also new allies like the far right – such as France’s National Front, Hungary’s Jobbik, or even UKIP in the United Kingdom. These groups, known for their brash populism and anti-European attitudes, have become a vehicle for Russian messages.

Therefore, by creating enough doubt and fueling extremist ideas and conspiracies, the Russian message is now being spread not only by the more traditional “useful idiots” (a term often accredited to Lenin himself), but also by politicians with real popular support and political influence.

Question more…

A perfect example of how Russia is creating noise and confusion is the multi-national, multi-lingual television station called “RT” (previously known as Russia Today). RT’s slogan is “question more”. And that is exactly what they want you to do – question Western ideas, beliefs and values. For years, RT has become a platform for an alternative perspective on the world. The main purpose of the journalists, commentators, and “experts” on RT is to cover mainstream issues through a massively critical lens and a production that looks exactly like CNN or BBC. The fancy studios, English-speaking presenters and snappy headlines gives the viewer the impression that this is a serious news agency, just like any other Western media organisation.

Before the Ukraine crisis, RT was even recognised for its alternative approach. In 2010, RT was nominated for an Emmy in the category of news and current affairs for its coverage of US President Barack Obama's visit to Russia. It was nominated two more times, once in 2012 for its Occupy Wall Street coverage (which conveniently showed that the Western liberal, capitalistic model failing the people) and in 2014 for its coverage of the Guantanamo hunger strikes. Also in 2014, RT Spanish was named the best TV resource by the Mexican Press Club – a prestigious recognition.

Yet, by employing Western and English speaking staff, RT has created a dilemma for its journalists and reporters. It is no secret that RT is owned and operated by Russia and promotes Kremlin interests. It seems, though, that there are limits. After the annexation of Crimea and the aggression in Ukraine’s east, two reporters, Liz Wahl (American) and Sara Firth (British), quit RT in protest of the escalated propaganda and lack of concern for the truth by the network.

Truth as an obstacle

However, unlike Western media organisations, RT is not concerned with the truth. And this is one of the key reasons why Russian propaganda is so successful in the West. In our post-modern society, we believe that there are many perspectives and many sides to a story. In media and journalism, that means that we search for the truth amongst all the perspectives. As journalists we analyze and provide the various perspectives in order to reach the truth. The problem with this approach is that you cannot find truth where there is none.

This creates a huge dilemma for the West. We are wired not to ignore a point of view. In the information war against Ukraine (and the West), this means that there is a natural reaction to listen to Russia’s point of view and consider her case. In our 21st century media environment, which is very competitive, sensation also helps. Hence, it has become a perfect-storm for Western media organisations for two reasons: 1) they can publish a point of view (despite the level of truth to it) because we believe in giving a platform to all points of view; and 2) because it is controversial it could increase readership and, hence, increase ad revenue. The fact that it may seriously harm Western support for Ukraine in such a situation is not a point for consideration among editors and producers.

Examples in the Western media are easy to find. John Mearsheimer’s article in Foreign Affairs titled “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault” is one of the more popular examples of this. Australian journalist John Pilger was even more blunt (and extremely wrong) when he wrote in the Guardian that: “Having masterminded the coup in February against the democratically elected government in Kiev, Washington's planned seizure of Russia's historic, legitimate warm-water naval base in Crimea failed. The Russians defended themselves, as they have done against every threat and invasion from the West for almost a century.”

It is not so much of a surprise that Pilger, who is rabidly anti-American, wrote such a piece. But it is more surprising that the Guardian, a mainstream news organisation which has a daily circulation of 185,000 copies and online traffic of over eight million users a month, published such blatant lies, where Pilger has no problem labelling the new authorities in Kyiv as “neo-Nazis unleashed by the US and the EU”. Apparently, by publishing Pilger’s text in a section called “Comment is free”, the editors bore no responsibility for its message.

This emphasizes the fact that for Russia there is no dilemma. The truth is not an obstacle. If something is not true, Russian propagandists make it true. At the very least, they make the truth questionable and that is enough to discount any factual argument used against Russia.

Considering lies as a perspective to help us understand the truth leads us to another key aim of Russian propaganda: to create a new reality. In order to undermine its enemy in the information war, Russia therefore not only needs to confuse through spreading of lies, but it also needs to create an alternate reality for others to believe in. The falsely applied geographic description to parts of Eastern Ukraine, which is now being referred to as Novorossiya, is a perfect example. Novorossiya was a little-known term that was lost to the history books and used to refer to territories that the Russian Empire gained after wars with the Ottoman Empire in the 18th century. Conveniently, the term is now applied to regions of Ukraine that Russia claims has never been really a part of Ukraine (much like Crimea) and indeed has its own identity vis-à-vis Novorossiya.

How to fight propaganda?

The European Union’s weakness to respond adequately and appropriately to Russian propaganda is yet another easy exploitation for Russia. Whereas Russia has propaganda, the EU has an “information policy”. In the current information war, the EU’s approach stresses “information”; while the Russian approach stresses “war”. Obviously, EU policy is no match for the slick, massively funded Russian propaganda machine which is not restricted by truth. Hence, the information war that has emerged since the Ukraine crisis begs the question: how does one fight propaganda?

The most tempting answer here is to stoop to your opponent’s level by fighting lies with more lies. This would indeed be an offensive approach in the information war. Yet, it is well beyond our values to conduct such an offensive. If we relegate ourselves to such a level, we would indeed be compromising our own values.

Instead, a more defensive approach is probably the best method to counteract Russian propaganda. In the West, we should no longer consider Russian lies a “perspective”. We need to become bolder and call out a lie when one is clearly used. We also need to stop repeating such narratives like “the West provoked Putin” and “Russia is just defending its sphere of influence”; because such phrases immediately discount Ukraine as an independent state capable of choosing its own future.

Certainly, Russian lies are an effective weapon in the information war. But perhaps there is another effective weapon, one which we have not yet learned how to use properly, and that is the truth. Let’s hope that there’s a chance to fight back with this weapon, before it is too late for Europe.

Adam Reichardt is editor in chief of New Eastern Europe.

This article was originally published in Polish in Res Publica Nowa issue 219 and online here: http://publica.pl/teksty/karabiny-info-wojny-50365.html

[OUTLAW 09]

To understand the impact of the Russian invasion on normal Ukrainians--highly recommend that the entire western civilian leadership take the time to just watch this 52 second video----and yet still no action and or comments especially from France and Germany since they created and pushed Minsk 2 and absolutely at the same time no US leadership that continues to pull out what US combat power is still left on Europe as their combined answer to Putin.

TOWS/MILAN ATMs all over Syria with both moderate and Islamist groups but when the eastern Ukraine now has more Russian tanks than five NATO armies have--total and utter silence on shipping them to the Ukraine---ever wonder why???

ICRC ✔ @ICRC
Weapons go on killing in eastern #Ukraine - a grandmother's testimony http://youtu.be/0INwf013PHE

The mines the grandmother refers to are three different types of Russian cluster munitions carried by their MRLSs--two versions have not previously been seen outside of Russian.

The Russian troops attempted to blame recently the Ukrainians for firing over 400 into a town that is being fought over until it was determined that the mines were actually Russian thus the attempt was a fake press release.

One current benefit to the Russian invasion and follows their non linear warfare doctrine is the use of new technology thus new weapons systems--which they are testing now under combat conditions using the Ukrainians as part of their experiments to see the effects of those weapons systems.

[OUTLAW 09]

The situation escalates, ATO reported the highest nr of ceasefire violations since Minsk2, incl w heavy art, GRADs
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=uk&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FHFw7TJNoVB&edit-text= …

Russian tactics in Shyrokyne=provoke with ever increasing shelling/attacks. Use any aggressive Ukraine response as excuse for massed attack.

Russian forces are pounding the Ukrainian village of #Shyrokyne (gateway to Mariupol) with heavy artillery (v Azov) pic.twitter.com/cDqpxnjyTv

6 hour battle in Shyrokyne has ended. Attacks repelled. 2 Batt. Donbas soldiers wounded (via @EuromaidanPR)http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/05/3/7066746/?attempt=1

Outgoing heavy guns sounding off from the center of #Donetsk, #Ukraine. Started about 10 mins ago Other explosions from #Petrovski area

Su-25 over road in Zaporizhie region http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/3-may-su25-over-road-in-zaporizhie-region … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/L0oCw3mJNP via @banderenko

One more village of #Lugansk Region comes back to #Ukraine authorities control. Read more at http://lugansk-news.com/one-more-village-of-lugansk-region-comes-back-to-ukraine-authorities-control/ … pic.twitter.com/DkEvU8cgTz

#Donetsk 21:52
Kalinovka - "Strela-10" rolling towards west. https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/594938892748357633
…

#Russia troops shelling #Ukraine positions from #Donetsk City with heavy artillery again tonight. Tanks rolling to the Airport.

Donetsk 22:10
Budyonovsky - hearing distant heavy artillery shots. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/594942899734900737 …

#Donetsk 10:10PM
From Kyivsky towards the airport a tank rolled with a bunch of DNR fighters on top. https://twitter.com/AlfaNubovsky/status/594942216411488256 …

@Guderian_Xaba "It doesn't stop. 3 APC's rushed towards Krasnyi Partizan".
"Can be heard in Makeevka".

#Yasynuvata 20:16
In the traffic police post area shooting and small explosions.
https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/594929496853225474 …

#Avdiivka 10:53PM
A few minutes ago, somewhere not far away volleys and hits. https://twitter.com/JuZolyshkaLia/status/594953019852247040 …

[OUTLAW 09]

AND a perfect example from the Ukrainian front:

To coincide with "third party" (according to Russian military) attack on Donetsk, Kremlin trolling campaign begins! pic.twitter.com/Yi1kfJTnvS

According to their own drawing, in this stpd way they (RU) admit they fire from residential areas

#Russian trolls are desperate now. Latest claim on #MH17 is debunked in 12 seconds: http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17.com/russian-trolls-are-desperate-now-latest-claim-on-mh17-is-debunked-in-12-seconds/ … pic.twitter.com/hgxQ9kSDsP

After intense shelling yesterday, today a lot of troll-videos appear blaming Ukraine for all
= it has begun again... pic.twitter.com/NYAOe63MFO

[OUTLAW 09]

Fighting breaks out near Mariupol, Ukrainian soldiers wounded
http://belsat.eu/en/articles/fighting-breaks-out-near-mariupol-ukrainian-soldiers-wounded/ …
#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/fh3PEeUlaW

Russia shelling Donetsk again & blaming Ukraine = prelude to larger offensive to come!http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/russian-shelling-donetsk-again-and.html … pic.twitter.com/5wq9ZZbT2V

After getting wounded in Debaltseve on Feb 17 (10+ weeks ago) war criminal Zakharchenko still can not walk properly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XC0XJ1lWW6E …


The saga continues: Russian Troll take-over of @Conflict_Report is back online! @JulianRoepcke pic.twitter.com/QP9pTEkppO

Levada : 37% of Russians think there are RU troops in Donbass but believe it is right to deny this - new double talk #lennartmeri
"Monitors Powerless to Prevent #Putin Reinforcing Rebels." by @Judy_Dempsey|http://www.newsweek.com/monitors-powerless-prevent-putin-reinforcing-rebels-327251 … #OSCE #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/voN72Me7Pw

Fighting breaks out near Mariupol, Ukrainian soldiers wounded
http://belsat.eu/en/articles/fighting-breaks-out-near-mariupol-ukrainian-soldiers-wounded/ …
pic.twitter.com/fh3PEeUlaW

#British Embassy in #Ukraine has decided to help the #Kremlin spot its tanks seen in Ukraine.http://en.censor.net.ua/photo_news/312633/british_embassy_in_ukraine_has_decided_to_help_the _kremlin_spot_its_tanks_seen_in_ukraine_photo … pic.twitter.com/p34AdDaFM6

#Lithuania protests #Russia|n navy interference in #Baltic power cable link with #Sweden. http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/177391-lithuania-says-russian-navy-impeding-baltic-power-link … pic.twitter.com/TPari1RwLm

[OUTLAW 09]

I will by today go into a rather long comment later today on the simple fact that the US has greatly underestimated the serious threat of a war in central Europe involving Poland, the Baltics and the Balkans that Putin is not in the least shying away from.

Will come back to these two comments and tie them into the current levels seen in Putin's actual non linear warfare he is currently conducting against the Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics.

ATO update: Donetsk militants violate truce 56 times in first half of Sunday
http://www.unian.info/war/1074353-ato-update-donetsk-militants-violate-truce-56-times-in-first-half-of-sunday.html … pic.twitter.com/BmBuMyjxia

On May 3, pro-RU terrorists fired 95 times with MRLS & heavy artillery (like in #Debaltsevo before Minsk-2) - #ATOhttps://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/992704767406996 …

[OUTLAW 09]

The following is a rather blunt statement from myself concerning the seemingly total lack of interest by the current President over the Russo-Ukrainian war which it really is.

There has never been such a total disconnect from the President of the US and the JCoS and a Combatant Commander--the core question then becomes WHY is that when all Generals have been so ingrained to warn the National Command Authority of impending "doom".

Right now there are only two voices that are the only voices making any statements about the threat of Russian aggression potently becoming an all out European war. The US Combatant Commander for EUCOM and the SACEUR Breedlove and the US Ambassador to the Ukraine Pratt.

Initially JCoS Dempsey was making statements concerning his views on the Russian actions during the Debaltseve fighting BUT even he has gone totally quiet.

the SACEUR has now attempted on two occasions to get the attention of the NCA on his serious concerns about Russian intentions--once in front of the HCFA and then last week at the Atlantic Conference where he basically warned of the serious nature of the Russian intent in both the Ukraine, the Baltics and NATO in general--his comments were clear and concise and not minced.

WHAT was the response from Obama and his NSC--utter silence--response from France and Germany concerning the massive violations of Minsk2 a document they both supposedly negotiated--utter silence--in fact mirroring the US position--all shrouded in utter silence EVEN the massive shellings and ground attacks were a very clear violation on the part of Russia.

Right now the Russians are forming a 50,000 man army in their occupied zone, this army has more tanks, heavy artillery and MRLSs than four NATO Armies combined. Russia has positioned their S-300s in Crimea and Kaliningrad and announced S-400s going to Kaliningrad in the coming months--giving them in fact the ability to deny the territorial air space of Poland, the entire Baltics, Bulgaria, Romanian, Czech Republic and a greater part of Germany.

Russian has stationed nuclear capable tactical missiles--the SS-21s in Crimea and claim--emphasis on "claimed" but not "verified" the pull out of the SS-21s they shipped not "verified" to Kaliningrad--giving them a tactical nuclear strike capacity over the same region including Berlin.

THIS nuclear threat and the air space deniability threat is right now both implicit and explicit in nature depending on what course of action Putin takes in his non linear warfare.

Next to the Baltic states Russian has placed an invasion force capable to rolling over the Baltics in about four hours--they conducted just recently a large exercise aimed at just that practicing an offensive attack right out of the garrisons they are in--in hours not days or weeks. These same troops that were placed on combat alert where then pulled back into their garrisons--BUT this is critical never taken off of combat alert thus capable of rolling with full combat loads in under four hours.

NOW the question to Obama and the western civilian leadership--are you in fact willing to pull the trigger on Article 5 if Putin decides to roll over the rest of the Ukraine and parks his "mercenary army---not his own troops" next to Poland and the Baltics???

Remember really NATO was a defensive concept that would trigger Article 5 after being invaded--but what if Poland and the Baltics facing a massive Russian backed force on their borders decides that is clear enough intentions on the part of the Russia and perceived it as a "clear and present danger" and calls for Article 5 to be implemented.

IS Obama ready to back NATO using "hard US power"????

IMO no--he is that weak-- basically one of the weakest Presidents and has the weakest NSC since the Wilson days.

Right now Putin is in fact in a non linear war with Poland and the Baltics and they have stated as much over the last weeks--ie Russian naval forces are constantly harassing the laying of a Baltic electrical power line into the Baltics from Sweden that would taken them off Russian electricity and make themselves less venerable to Russian blackmail. BUT neither the Swedes nor the Baltics have much a navy to resist the current Russian naval disruption antics.

Notice no comments out of DC, Paris and or Berlin???

I made a bet that the US, Paris and Berlin would issue no statements concerning the massive shellings on 1-3 May and thus the massive violations of Russia and her mercenaries of Minsk 2--guess what nothing came out of those capitals--why is that?

AND at the same time the same three western partners are basically applying pressure on the Ukraine to hold to an agreement that has utterly failed and they are losing manpower on a daily basis and not even returning defensive fire in the middle of the heavy shelling--come on ---82mm mortar responses to 152mm Russian SPG shelling HOW long would the US Army tolerate that imbalance to go on?????

The Ukrainian Army wants to defend their country and it is the West that is not allowing that--are they trying to appease Putin by any chance?? Germany and France refuse to support defensive ATMs to be shipped to the Ukraine BUT both US TOWs and French MILANs are in Syria in large numbers and YET nothing to the Ukraine that is facing a Russian mercenary tank army that four NATO armies could not basically resist.

How strange is that rationale???

Dear NATO countries near Russia: your Article 5 promises mean as much to Obama as his repeated promises to recognize the Armenian genocide.

Trending NATO News @NATOlizer
Russia repositioning forces for new offensive in Ukraine, U.S. commander sayshttp://nato.trendolizer.com/2015/05/russia-repositioning-forces-for-new-offensive-in-ukraine-us-commander-says.html … pic.twitter.com/REXuAoGMQR

Geoffrey Pyatt ✔ @GeoffPyatt
With calls to follow the #Minsk agreements, it is important to remember the main points that have not been fulfilledpic.twitter.com/EQXZm8x3gb

[OUTLAW 09]

Shelling of Donetsk 'As Intense as Before February Ceasefire' http://goo.gl/St8DR8

"Total losses for the evening-night in #Shyrokyno 1 KIA, 3 WIA. There was shelling on all positions".
#Mariupol https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/595146107895832577 …

#Shakhtarsk 11:50
4 tanks, 6 BMP and 2 Urals with russian soldiers towards #Donetsk.
Guests for tonight's party. https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/595149105418084352 …

It is very clear that Basurin is Lentsov's man in the Donbas. Regularly at Lentsov's side, from Donetsk to Shyrokyne. That's Eduard Basurin (so-called "minister of defence of DPR")


Liz Wahl, former RT anchor who resigned on-air last year, speaks out about Russian propaganda
http://www.paprikapolitik.com/2015/05/on-the-frontline-of-the-information-war-an-interview-with-liz-wahl/ … pic.twitter.com/EZawD83Ekd

#Avdeevka, night shelling aftermath Sportyvna St @novostidnua @Serzzze pic.twitter.com/bZCPvxsV80

Zakharchenko: "Soon we will come to the city of Odesa, take seats on the embankment, and drink coffee" http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukraine-soldiers-killed-425171.html

#OSCE arrived in #Shyrokyne, "so it is quiet here since morning" @AMykhailova pic.twitter.com/YvZnhgCoFO

[OUTLAW 09]

May 4 map of #ATO in eastern #Ukraine - pro-RU troops renewed mass shellings as in #Debaltseve 3 mnths ago pic.twitter.com/DXiWpGi7KU @NSDC_ua

April 30, 2015, drone video of #Donetsk airport's runway, it's in relatively good condition... https://youtu.be/fCPqTQuUfMc

Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group testing the Ukrainian defences at #Novoselivka. https://twitter.com/GorseFires/status/595145446642864128 …

Last night near #Mariupol, Ukrainian forces repulsed attack by a Russian forces/militia 10-man commando group http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3722/v_rajone_mariupolya_sily_ato_otbili_napadenie_dive rsionnoj_gruppy_boevikov.html …

Another Ukrainian guerrilla strike on Russian mercenary depots:
#Ukrainian servicemen destroyed a militant ammunition depot outside #Shyrokyne http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3721/pod_mariupolem_unichtozheny_minimum_dvoe_boevikov_ i_sklad_s_boepripasami.html …

VIDEO: In Luhansk, more RUS equipment passing through. Including GRADs. Supposedly yesterday.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGo5WKiOWSM&sns=tw … pic.twitter.com/0qs80Ad03W

10:39 #Shakhtarsk @Helgi__UA A column of empty 40t dump trucks fr/#Donetsk eastward

Russian submarine & airplane observed 5 miles off Latvia's territorial waters, yesterday http://m.rus.delfi.lv/latvija/article.php?id=45915953 … pic.twitter.com/JmyeSzIBbe

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-donetsk-separatist-leader-on-hopes-for-annexation-a-1031270.html

PART ONE of TWO PARTS

Excellent interview that reflects also the Russian mercenary "altered state of reality" which actually is the same "altered reality" one hears from Putin and his Foreign Minister Lavrov --given both parties are in an "altered state of reality" negotiations are actually doomed to fail as no middle ground can and or could ever be found--thus the concept of a non military solution is rather questionable and just maybe a form of military solution is in fact the way forward?

Donetsk Separatist Leader: 'We Are Not Citizens of Ukraine'

Interview Conducted By Christian Neef


Alexander Zakharchenko is the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, which is not recognized by the international community. In a rare interview, he says his greatest hope is that Moscow will annex his territory just as it did Crimea.

The meeting takes place in an inconspicuous building on a commercial street in downtown Donetsk. There is no sign to indicate who resides behind the door where guards armed with automatic rifles are posted. After a brief walk up the stairs to the second floor, a man in a blue sweater whose right leg is wrapped in a bandage, sits behind a desk in a study. Two months ago, a sniper's bullet slammed into his lower leg. The incident occurred during fighting over the Ukrainian town of Debaltseve, which in February fell to the separatists who now control Donetsk.

The man at the desk is Alexander Zakharchenko, the "leader," head of government and commander-in-chief of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic. He has the rank of major. After the separatists' victory in Debaltseve, the neighboring Luhansk rebel republic even awarded him the rank of general. Zakharchenko is a wanted man in the rest of Ukraine, where he is charged with establishing a terrorist organization. His name also appears on US and EU sanctions lists, which prevents him from traveling to the West. The fact that his office on University Street in Donetsk is so inconspicuous is a precaution. The head of the separatist republic has already survived one assassination attempt. As a result, he is unwilling to move to the former governor's administration building, where the government is now headquartered. The tall, exposed building on Pushkin Boulevard would be an easy target in an air strike.

Zakharchenko, 38, has never been involved in politics before. He worked as an electrician in a mine, earned money illegally mining coal and attended but never finished law school. Zakharchenko first became a public figure in April 2014, when he and six armed men occupied the mayor's office in Donetsk to push through an independence referendum against the new government in Kiev. The war began soon afterwards. By May, Zakharchenko was the city's commandant, and three months later he became the head of the separatist government. To date, the biggest obstacle to true peace negotiations between the rebels and Ukraine is the fact that Kiev refuses to hold direct talks with Zakharchenko. But is it even possible to understand the Donetsk People's Republic without knowing Zakharchenko and how he thinks? Probably not. SPIEGEL spent months unsuccessfully trying to secure an interview with him, until last week, when the interview was approved. Zakharchenko rarely ever meets with people from the West. "It will be tough for you to return to Germany after this encounter with a 'terrorist,'" the separatist leader said. He responded calmly and readily to our questions, though some of his responses were filled with sharp irony.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Zakharchenko, you say that the Ukrainian leadership is in the process of unleashing a new war. In fact, there has been shooting again along the cease-fire line -- at the Donetsk airport and near the port city of Mariupol. Has the Minsk agreement failed?

Zakharchenko: The airport and the embattled town of Shyrokyne, near Mariupol are symbolic places, both for us and the Ukrainian army. Kiev wants to recapture the airport as quickly as possible. It has not abided by any of the terms of the Minsk agreement. Above all, it was supposed to establish direct contact with us, which hasn't happened to this day.

SPIEGEL: So Kiev alone is to blame for the fact that there is still no peace?

Zakharchenko: Ninety-percent of the demands in the Minsk agreement apply to Kiev. We have done everything conceivable. We have withdrawn military technology and we have handed over prisoners to the other side.

SPIEGEL: All prisoners?

Zakharchenko: What do you mean by all? We turned over the last 16 Ukrainians, but then the war continued, and each side is now taking new prisoners. And Kiev is not withdrawing its heavy weapons.

SPIEGEL: You haven't done so, either. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has confirmed that your people fired missiles at the city of Avdiivka in recent days.

Zakharchenko: I can tell you why. If we withdraw our weapons and the other side fires at us, we have to respond. That's logical, isn't it? And that's why the heavy weapons are returning to their old positions.

SPIEGEL: So the war is continuing.

Zakharchenko: Because Kiev is illegally occupying part of our territory. We define "our territory" as the entire Donetsk region, within the borders that previously made it part of Ukraine.

SPIEGEL: There are suggestions that Russia is still supporting you with troops and military technology. A badly injured Russian tank driver confirmed this in an interview. It's hypocrisy to continue denying it.

Zakharchenko: Listen, two of my cousins are now here in the Donetsk People's Republic. They are Russian citizens, but they are also my relatives. One of them used to live in Astrakhan and the other in Irkutsk. One of them is a former career officer. Is that what you call Russian military aid? I say that my cousins have come here to help me. Kiev calls it Russian aid.

Zakharchenko is unwilling to discuss the revelations of Russian soldier Dorzhi Batomunkuyev, who admitted in an interview in March that he and his entire tank battalion, consisting of 31 tanks, had been sent to Donetsk on Feb. 8. He said they had painted the tanks in camouflage colors at their home barracks, and that they were later ordered to turn over all documents and phones. According to the soldier, no one gave them any marching orders, and they only realized where they were going when they saw the sign for Donetsk city limits.

SPIEGEL: Let's ignore the Russian army for a moment. How many men do you have under arms? Twenty-three thousand, as you said recently? Plus 60,000 reservists?

Zakharchenko: There are more than that by now, but it's a military secret. Those 60,000 are volunteers who have signed up at the military commandants' headquarters and would take up arms in an emergency.

SPIEGEL: It doesn't appear that you will be able to reach a political compromise with Kiev. President Petro Poroshenko describes the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as "occupied territory." You are now threatening to take over Mariupol and Kharkiv.

Zakharchenko: I have always said that the Donetsk People's Republic is comprised of the entire former Donetsk region. We see any part that is not in our hands yet as being illegally occupied. Kharkiv isn't part of that.

SPIEGEL: The borders of the old Donetsk region are still too far away for you.

Zakharchenko: What do you mean by far? It's only 120 kilometers (74 miles).

SPIEGEL: How do you intend to capture this additional territory?

Zakharchenko: The faster, the better. And by peaceful means, if possible.

There is no sign of a peaceful settlement, with neither of the two sides willing to back down at the moment. Zakharchenko speaks quickly, and his facts and arguments are often contradictory. Like his opponent, Ukrainian President Poroshenko, the Donetsk "leader" is cherry-picking the elements of the Minsk agreement that seem beneficial to him, or he is reinterpreting it. It's a patchwork quilt of truth.

Zakharchenko keeps repeating that he is not a politician but merely an employee who is serving his country, and that it is independent of Russia. Nevertheless, a portrait of Russian President Vladimir Putin hangs on the wall of his office, and the Russian flag stands behind his desk chair. The rest of the furnishings are from various eras. There is a set of knight's armor in the corner and leaning against the window is a Bulawa club, a symbol of the power of Ukrainian Cossack rulers. Modern pistols are displayed on a bookshelf, along with the collected works of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. The separatists' mindscape seems both confused and diverse.

SPIEGEL: Why did neither you nor the head of the Luhansk People's Republic want to the sign the agreement in Minsk in February that (German Chancellor) Angela Merkel, (France President) Franois Hollande and Vladimir Putin had negotiated?

Zakharchenko: Because the first versions -- and there were 14 of them -- absolutely did not correspond with anything we could accept. In the end, we signed the one that contained the most advantageous terms for us at the time.

SPIEGEL: Under pressure from Vladimir Putin.

Zakharchenko: Yes, there was tremendous pressure -- not just from Russia but also from the Europeans and from Kiev. However, we see the Minsk agreement as only a first stage of a possible settlement. The other side, however, claims that the agreement settles all contentious issues. We insist on negotiating directly with Kiev.

[OUTLAW 09]

PART TWO of above article:



SPIEGEL: The Ukrainians want to see international peacekeeping troops stationed in the Donets Basin, the Donbas. Why do you reject this?

Zakharchenko: According to the United Nations, there is a series of conditions for deploying such troops. Kiev would have to admit that a real war is taking place in Ukraine, and it would also have to declare a state of war. But Poroshenko doesn't want that, because the International Monetary Fund would then refuse to provide additional loans. Besides, we are capable of solving the problems here ourselves. Foreign troops would hardly be able to stop the combat operations.

SPIEGEL: Some members of the Russian parliament, the Duma, want to see Russian peacekeepers sent to the Donbas. Would that be an option?

Zakharchenko: I just said that we need to solve our problems on our own.

SPIEGEL: The Ukrainians first want to hold the regional elections in eastern Ukraine that they are demanding. You, however, insist that the constitution must be amended and that the status of the separatist territories defined. Months could pass before that happens.

Zakharchenko: And why can't we solve these problems at the same time? Why can't the economic blockade be lifted first?

SPIEGEL: If elections are held in your territory, will the citizens who fled to other parts of Ukraine after the war began also be allowed to vote?

Zakharchenko: There are fewer of them than of the refugees who went to Russia. Until the war began, the Donetsk People's Republic had a population of 4.8 million. More than a million now live in Russia, and perhaps 2.3 million are still here. Another 700,000 are now in the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic occupied by Ukraine.

SPIEGEL: You expect them to support you. The Kiev government is supposed to take full control of the border with Russia right after the elections. Will you ever accept that?

Zakharchenko: In reality, the point is that we will take over control. In accordance with the Minsk agreement, we have formed a border service, and the development of border posts will be completed within the next three weeks. Crossing the border illegally will no longer be possible then.

SPIEGEL: If you are the only ones controlling the border, Russian military technology will continue to flow freely into the country.

Zakharchenko: Have you ever seen them at the border yourself?

SPIEGEL: You don't let us go there, and not even the OSCE, with a few exceptions. But the battle for Debaltseve in February would not have been possible without Russian help.

Zakharchenko: I commanded 587 men when Debaltseve was captured. Believe me, I didn't see a single regular Russian military unit. And I was wounded there myself.

SPIEGEL: Many rebel groups are fighting independently on your side. Do you even have any control over these armed units anymore?

Zakharchenko: According to Minsk, we were required to disarm units that were not part of the people's army or the territorial defense battalions. This was done without any excesses, and these people were incorporated into the Interior Ministry or other battalions.

But the world in his republic isn't nearly as orderly as Zakharchenko tries to portray. His men in the Defense Ministry do see the disarming of rebels acting independently as a problem. The program only began in April, they say, and in the first five days alone, 65 men were arrested for refusing to give up their weapons voluntarily.

SPIEGEL: Have you ever considered a federation with Ukraine a possibility?

Zakharchenko: I did a year ago. But that's over now.

SPIEGEL: You now want Russia to recognize your republic. But that would "immensely complicate" a resolution of the conflict, says German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Zakharchenko: Germany should recognize us even sooner. It would make like easier for the people here.

SPIEGEL: Conditions have been poor in your republic since the economic blockade began. What are you doing to combat the problem?

Zakharchenko: We have started paying out pensions, we are slowly getting coal production up and running again and the railroad will be operating again soon. Be it coal or metal, we will return to 2014 production levels.

SPIEGEL: Is the money for the pensions coming from Russia? Is that why they are being paid in rubles?

Zakharchenko: We supply coal to Russia, and we are paid in rubles. But do you think Ukraine could survive without our coal? It is buying through all kinds of circuitous routes. The EU is also interested, including Bulgaria, Poland, Romania and especially Spain. That means we get rubles, hryvnia and dollars.

SPIEGEL: Who do you think should pay for the reconstruction of the Donbas?

Zakharchenko: Ukraine, of course. It destroyed everything here.

SPIEGEL: Ukraine is practically bankrupt.

Zakharchenko: We don't care if Ukraine is bankrupt. We are not citizens of Ukraine. We will present them with our bill. Perhaps German money will also help.

During the interview, Zakharchenko repeatedly mentions the "fascists" in Kiev. He is critical of the fact that Poroshenko's government is receiving 500 million ($550 million) from the "iron chancellor," Angela Merkel. He insists that his People's Republic is in fact entitled to the money, as compensation for its war losses. But the German money is being "stolen" in Kiev, he argues. It is obvious that the leader of the People's Republic is entirely reliant on Russia. The ruble has already found its way into Donetsk, where the Russian currency can be used to pay for gasoline at filling stations. Ruble cash registers can also be found in supermarkets and items on restaurant menus are priced in rubles.

Still, there is a touch of melancholy in Zakharchenko's final answer. The interview has already been underway for an hour, and at times it has turned into a heated argument. In the end, a long argument ensues between the separatist leader and the reporter over whether the uprising on Maidan Square in Kiev was a coup d'tat and the current Kiev government is a "fascist junta." Zakharchenko still insists that his republic is fighting fascists, and says that Russia feels the same way.

SPIEGEL: Nevertheless, your former prime minister, Alexander Borodai, regrets that Russia doesn't support the desire for independence by the people in the Donbas in the same way it supports Russians in Crimea. Do you agree?

Zakharchenko: That's his personal opinion. But if there were a "Russian spring" here, as there was in Crimea, I would vote for it with both hands.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukr positions near #Pavlopil was shelled w 120-mm mortars this morning http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3725/utrom_boeviki_obstrelyali_pozicii_sil_ato_pod_mari upolem_iz_zapreshennogo_oruzhiya.html …

#Makeevka 13:15
"In the area of Civil Engineering Institute heard the sound of an airplane coming, for 15secs" https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/595175274272169984 …

Hackers used malware to inflate views on pro-#Russia videos. Good report from @lorenzoFB: http://motherboard.vice.com/read/hackers-used-malware-to-fake-views-on-pro-russia-videos … via @motherboard

Today in #Alchevsk on Kirov was spotted a convoy of 17 tanks, under Russian and Abkhazian flags, towards #Pervomayskhttps://twitter.com/AlchevskUA/status/595214864483622912 …

Kremlin launched 'quietest submarine in the world' http://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-launched-quietest-submarine-in-the-world-2015-4 …

Russian military plane intercepted over Baltic
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-military-plane-intercepted-over-baltic-425170.html … pic.twitter.com/lNdWXBlKag

[OUTLAW 09]

PART THREE of above article:


Leader of Russian-Backed Separatists In Donetsk Doubts Peace Talks Will Net Results

13:44 (GMT)


As we have been reporting, various leaders of the Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk have continuously expressed doubts about whether peace talks will net any results. Part of the reason -- they don't want to hold elections according to Ukrainian law (a key part of the Minsk agreement) and they do not want to withdraw their heavy equipment from the line of demarcation (another key part of the negotiated ceasefire).

Today, a key separatist leader has made more statements which throw doubt on the prospects of the peace process working. RFE/RL reports:

Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Alexander Zakharchenko has doubts about the positive outcome of the Minsk meeting of the contact group scheduled for May 6.

"We - I and [head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic Igor] Plotnitsky - have sent several proposals, verbalized them to our Ukrainian colleagues. But I don't think that the results of the meeting in Minsk will be positive," he said to journalists.

But these comments are gentle in comparison to what Zakharchenko told RIA Novosti last week. He said that his fighters would have to push to Kharkiv in order to ensure the security of Donetsk, and fighting "will go on indefinitely until Ukraine either ceases to exist as a state or understands that fighting us is impossible and futile.NOTE:
This is an interesting comment as this individual was "ordered" some say taken prisoner and sent to Moscow to answer charges that he was stealing and selling Russian humanitarian aid on the black market. So just how was it possible that he provided "input"???? Not so subtle indicator he is just parroting what he is being told out of Moscow.

[head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic Igor] Plotnitsky -

[OUTLAW 09]

If this breaking information is indeed correct THEN Minsk 2 is formally DEAD. So Obama, his NSC, Hollande, and Merkel--AND the next move from the West is what again???--the same silence we have seen since the massive shellings have started.

Both Russia and her mercenaries are in full violation now of Minsk 2 and YET again silence is the Western response??????

Ukrainian field reports indicate it is a full scale armored assault on the Ukrainian positions which THEN enables a Russian assault on Mariupol--the West has know this Russian objection for weeks and YET they run from a decision any decision. the entire western civilian leadership seems to be acting like a vampire running from a silver cross--absolutely no leadership is seen by any of them include the Us President.


#BREAKINGNEWS
#Russia Army launch of full scale attack on #Shyrokyne now, close to #Mariupol, with tanks, artillery, APCs - Azov

BREAKING: #Shyrokyne reportedly under full scale attack by #Russia|ns right nowhttps://twitter.com/MikaelSkillt/status/595224295879614467 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Social media is reporting large Russian assault forces are bringing themselves into attack positions all day today on multiple fronts.

All woodlines in #Komsomolske-#Telmanove look like this" @Katz_741pic.twitter.com/AMJIi2XhY0

Another ground attack being reported now:
Ukraine Live: Attack Reported In Shirokino http://bit.ly/1I8ygQ6

[OUTLAW 09]

If this breaking information is indeed correct THEN Minsk 2 is formally DEAD. So Obama, his NSC, Hollande, and Merkel--AND the next move from the West is what again???--the same silence we have seen since the massive shellings have started.

Both Russia and her mercenaries are in full violation now of Minsk 2 and YET again silence is the Western response??????

Ukrainian field reports indicate it is a full scale armored assault on the Ukrainian positions which THEN enables a Russian assault on Mariupol--the West has know this Russian objection for weeks and YET they run from a decision any decision. the entire western civilian leadership seems to be acting like a vampire running from a silver cross--absolutely no leadership is seen by any of them include the Us President.


#BREAKINGNEWS
#Russia Army launch of full scale attack on #Shyrokyne now, close to #Mariupol, with tanks, artillery, APCs - Azov

BREAKING: #Shyrokyne reportedly under full scale attack by #Russia|ns right nowhttps://twitter.com/MikaelSkillt/status/595224295879614467 …

Seems the Russian mercenaries even with tanks, APCs and supporting artillery have not made it past the end of town--they always seem to have problems the last 300 meters and fade when taken under direct fire that last 300 meters. That is why then the Russian army has to step in and complete the attacks.

Territorial wins against the UA have been achieved only with Russian troops but at a cost they attempt to avoid by constantly rotating their BNs so that the loses are not high per BN--but it forces them to have a constant rotation and hold 20,000 troops in place for their rotation process.

Ukrainians side has a two week rotation policy and they do a pretty efficient RIP/TOA thus they are able to take the constant poundings because they know their end date before a break.

IMO the Russian mercenaries and Russian troops are always surprised by the Ukrainian resilience in defensive positions even under heavy artillery or MRLS strikes.

So far they only managed to move technics to end of town @clochette31000 @tweetsNV

[OUTLAW 09]

18:00 #Donetsk Kirovsky ds @ropogckou Sporadic double distant volleys are heard.

Baltic military shadow-boxing said to reach Cold War levels http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0NP1G420150504?irpc=932 …

The aggressor in this case are Russian mercenaries an Russian troops the last time I checked.
"#Luhansk People's Republ." introduces Martial Maw on May 5th to protect "its sovereignty" against "foreign aggres."
https://twitter.com/novostidnua/status/595225549682933761 …

The loses just keep mounting in the so called ceasefire.
2 #Ukraine soldiers were killed yesterday, 5 wounded

#Russia MoD Releases Preview Images of New Armored Vehicles Sans Turret Covershttp://bit.ly/1ERFOFN pic.twitter.com/jYdWTSJNQ5

pic.twitter.com/33OGFwwWsE

Russian Warships Prevent Lithuania and Sweden from Laying Underwater Cable; Lithuanian MFA summons Russian ambassadorhttp://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-may-4-2015/#8154 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Another Ukrainian guerrilla sabotage strike:

18:57 #Shakhtarsk @Helgi__UA "It was not thunder I've just heard, it's the best fireworks I heard - 7 min in a row something is blowing up"

[OUTLAW 09]

While an interesting article the author forgets another route--the Russian military together with her mercenaries actually go over to an offense and push to the actual Donbas region borders and then totally stop arguing this border represents the true New Russia--with the ports of Odessa and Mariupol the Donbas would in fact be a viable economic entity.

A Russian quick and fast offense --the Ukrainians would not be able to hold back based on the sheer amount of armor and large number the Russian troops (last count was 12K) and mercenaries (20K)--you can see the Russian intent by their pushing of their AD literally to the edge of the contact line thus taking the air space under their total control thus protecting their armored forces--typical Russian doctrine.

Once the Donbas region is a fact-- then Russia can freeze it but until it is a viable economic state they will continue fighting.

The Ukraine has not been diverted from their goals of EU and NATO membership that Russia wants to stop-- thus Russia needs to either escalate or find a pressure point and that pressure point at the minimum it is a viable Donbas.

Remember Putin has three geo political goals 1) discrediting and damaging the EU, 2) discrediting and damaging NATO and 3) disconnecting the US from Europe--and he regardless of what many think half way to his end state.

By focusing on the Donbas Putin gets a boost in achieving his end goals by pressuring at the same time the Baltics to show them NATO will not stand by them -the same pressure is now also being applied to Finland, Sweden and Poland.

Remember Putin is on a neo imperialistic expansion drive and if diverted he will wait and then start again when the West eases pressure-- his info warfare focused on his civil society has them convinced of his goals thus he feels secure for at least the next five years are so.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/04/out-of-kievs-hands/

Out of Kiev’s Hands

Why Ukraine's failing Donbass region is becoming a big headache for Russia.
By Alexander J. Motyl
May 4, 2015 - 12:26 pm


The Russian-occupied Donbass enclave in eastern Ukraine is on the verge of economic and social collapse. That grave fact casts the Russo-Ukrainian war in a different light. Normally, wars are fought over prize territory: winners gain it, losers lose it.
In this case, the implosion of the Donbass means that whoever controls the enclave is, in fact, the loser. As the man who owns the enclave and is likely to do so for the foreseeable future, Vladimir Putin is thus the loser. And both Russia and Ukraine know it.

According to United Nations data, of the 5 million people who formerly populated the enclave, nearly 2 million have left since March 2014. Since many of these refugees are educated, middle-class professionals who are unlikely ever to return to a war zone, the enclave has suffered an irreparable loss of its intellectual and human capital.

Of the 3 million who are left, about 2 million are children and pensioners — leaving 1 million working-age adults to support them, service the crumbling economy, and do the fighting. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, GDP in the Donbass has collapsed, with industrial production falling by over a third in 2014, and construction by over a half. Many bridges and rail tracks remain destroyed. Only one third of residents receive a steady wage. Large swathes of the territory suffer from gas, water, and electricity shortages. And Kiev stopped paying pensions to enclave residents in late 2014. Unsurprisingly, the decline of the Donbass has continued apace in 2015.

Although refugee streams appear to have abated — those most able to flee have already left — economic decline and flight will continue as long as the war does. In time, the enclave’s population will consist of senior citizens barely surviving off their private plots, children forced to fend for themselves on the street, overworked women, and desperate men who opt either for alcoholism or for the material compensations of fighting — and dying — within the separatist ranks. (In the photo, a resident of the Donbass village of Nikishino talks to neighbors outside her destroyed home.)

The longer the fighting continues, the less will the Donbass be able to sustain itself and its war-fighting capacity and the less will the separatists be able to create a functioning political entity. Worse for Putin, the enclave’s only source of economic sustenance is the country that has done most to destroy it — Russia. Putin would prefer that Kiev assume the cost of feeding the region and paying to rebuild it (infrastructural damage is estimated by the Ukrainian government to be about 5 billion hryvnia, or a bit over $2 billion). But Ukraine will never do that as long as the enclave is controlled by the separatists, who insist they will never abandon their aspirations to independence.

Given the enclave’s economic decline and dearth of able-bodied men, it’s no wonder that the separatist armies rely so heavily on volunteers from Russia and on Russian regular forces. We have no way of estimating how many physically fit working-age adult Donbass males still support Putin and his proxies, but there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that some of them are having second thoughts about the prospects of a cause that has depopulated their region and devastated their economy. Some must also sense that their losses have been high, both in absolute and relative terms. If, as there is good reason to believe, separatist losses exceed those suffered by Ukraine’s armed forces (about 3,000 dead: 1,750 confirmed and an estimated 1,250 missing in action and presumed dead), some separatists must be wondering about the enclave’s ability to continue fighting.

The problems with relying on Russian volunteers and Russian regulars are obvious. They put the lie to the separatist claim that they are fighting a civil war against the “fascist junta” in Kiev. They are expensive — and the Kremlin has to pick up the bill. They do nothing to boost the local economy. And they run the risk of alienating what’s left of the local population, which may have felt some solidarity with its own “boys,” but which is less likely to identify with Russian adventurers from Tomsk.

The current stand-off is thus unsustainable for the separatists and their patron, Putin. The longer they hold on to a territory that Kiev cannot liberate, the higher the economic price and the greater the risks of the occupation. There is, however, no easy way out of this jam for Russia. Renewing the fighting would kill more Ukrainians and harm Ukraine’s reform plans, but, like having the self-styled Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics declare independence, it would do nothing to resolve the Kremlin’s difficulties in the enclave. Indeed, expanding the size of the enclave would only compound Putin’s problems, as expansion would inevitably destroy more territory and promote greater population flight. If Russia could inflict a decisive defeat on Ukraine, it could force it to retake the Donbass on Russia’s terms. But this would require a massive attack which would likely intensify Western sanctions, compel the Obama administration to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, encounter determined Ukrainian resistance, and end up embroiling Russia in a bloody long-term war.

The logical solution to this conundrum would be to declare victory over the “fascist junta” in Kiev, pull out Russian forces, and dump the enclave on Ukraine, which, having insisted that the Donbass is Ukrainian, would have no choice but to try to cope with the mess. For that to happen, however, Putin would have to abandon all the ideological grandstanding he’s employed over the last few years. Besides jeopardizing his legitimacy and power, such a conciliatory move would not come easily to the Kremlin’s self-styled macho man.

In contrast, the current stand-off is the best of all possible worlds for Kiev. Ukraine can benefit from the emotional appeal of insisting that it will never abandon the Donbass, while actually doing nothing to liberate it. Time is on Ukraine’s side, precisely because winning this “hybrid” war means losing territory. All Ukraine needs do is keep the separatists boxed in. Sooner or later, a rational or semi-rational Putin disinclined to start World War III over a piece of crummy real estate will have to accept “frozen conflict” status or pull another Crimea and annex the territory. Either way, Russia will be stuck with a no-future region that will be a drag on its economy for decades to come.

[OUTLAW 09]

While an interesting article the author forgets another route--the Russian military together with her mercenaries actually go over to an offense and push to the actual Donbas region borders and then totally stop arguing this border represents the true New Russia--with the ports of Odessa and Mariupol the Donbas would in fact be a viable economic entity.

A Russian quick and fast offense --the Ukrainians would not be able to hold back based on the sheer amount of armor and large number the Russian troops (last count was 12K) and mercenaries (20K)--you can see the Russian intent by their pushing of their AD literally to the edge of the contact line thus taking the air space under their total control thus protecting their armored forces--typical Russian doctrine.

Once the Donbas region is a fact-- then Russia can freeze it but until it is a viable economic state they will continue fighting.

The Ukraine has not been diverted from their goals of EU and NATO membership that Russia wants to stop-- thus Russia needs to either escalate or find a pressure point and that pressure point at the minimum it is a viable Donbas.

Remember Putin has three geo political goals 1) discrediting and damaging the EU, 2) discrediting and damaging NATO and 3) disconnecting the US from Europe--and he regardless of what many think half way to his end state.

By focusing on the Donbas Putin gets a boost in achieving his end goals by pressuring at the same time the Baltics to show them NATO will not stand by them -the same pressure is now also being applied to Finland, Sweden and Poland.

Remember Putin is on a neo imperialistic expansion drive and if diverted he will wait and then start again when the West eases pressure-- his info warfare focused on his civil society has them convinced of his goals thus he feels secure for at least the next five years are so.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/04/out-of-kievs-hands/

Out of Kiev’s Hands

Why Ukraine's failing Donbass region is becoming a big headache for Russia.
By Alexander J. Motyl
May 4, 2015 - 12:26 pm

http://www.unian.info/politics/1074474-trilateral-contact-group-to-meet-with-militants-in-minsk-on-may-6.html



The militants have said several times that they could go on to attack and capture Mariupol, and extend the area under their control to the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and even into further Ukrainian regions, such as Kharkiv oblast. The militants currently control about a third of the combined areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Speaking on Russian television in mid-April, the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic said it would be easy for the militants to attack Mariupol

"We will free our compatriots,” Zakharchenko said, referring to Russians living in Mariupol.

“About 23,000 soldiers are under my command, while another 30,000 people are on standby. It is very easy to take the flank of Mariupol. Do not forget that our mothers and sisters live there."

US now describing Russians & militants in E. Ukraine as "integrated force" rather than Russian-backed separatists http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/us-officials-reveal-russia-increasing-control-over-militants-in-ukraine …

[OUTLAW 09]

Shelling is starting again tonight—will see how intense and how long this evening goes.

OSCE determined that the Russian mercenaries have broken the Minsk 2 ceasefire dozens of times over the last few days.

Fighting continues in eastern #Ukraine as militants shell Ukrainian positions http://uatoday.tv/politics/ato-425202.html …

#News
Russian forces attacked #Pisky,#Vodyane and #Opytne with D-30 artillery pieces for the whole day.
#Minsk & the @OSCE_SMM don't matter.

19:21 #Donetsk @Al_Pod Single "Volleys started in the airport [direction]. Waiting for the night"

20:22 #Donetsk @UkraineSuper1 Spodaricheavy volleys in #Pisky/airport [direction]

20:00 #Donetsk Shakhtarska Sq @PVB40 Distant heavy volleys fr/NW, 'not heard w/windows closed'

10:30am #Kirovsk @AngelMorbit Half score BMP column went tow/Petrogradka settlement

[OUTLAW 09]

May03 12:42 #Luhansk, the center, near Spar store in 16th line St @Tkachov_TT MAZ-537 tracktor w/ a shotup tank pic.twitter.com/beEHHLO4Ov

Another hidden Russian mercenary heavy weapons depot—hidden from the OSCE in Donetsk.
pic.twitter.com/33OGFwwWsE

#Shakhty, #Rostov region. BMP loaded railroad transport seen 4.5.15 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/4-may-shakhty-rostov-region-bmp-loaded-railroad-transport pic.twitter.com/05bKkVAqvi

Russian tanks in #Makiivka http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/4-may-russian-tanks-in-makiivka … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CV_U2NODlME …

A new Russian 'Tiger' armoured car. These were visible around Crimea in March 2014, even as the… https://instagram.com/p/2RP8WWSjf7/

Dogs of war & Russian militant mortar in civil area pic.twitter.com/BikiOowQQK via @666_mancer

Russian trolling with new MH17 story which got destroyed as fake in 12 minutes—now blames CNN.
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
I see Globalresearch is now blaming their false MH17 story on "CNN’s practice of using fake footage" http://shar.es/1pUpNL

[OUTLAW 09]

Is the Baltic Sea the new zone of confrontation between Russia & NATO? Certainly most active: http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nations-around-baltic-sea-increasing-defense-spending … pic.twitter.com/mhbSV1iY01

Russia's military superiority over its Baltic neighborshttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nations-around-baltic-sea-increasing-defense-spending … pic.twitter.com/jrOmdAOIU9

Around 400 #Ukrainians r held captive by militants. Can be even more: some taken to #Russia, no proper count in "LPR" - volunteer Maystrenko

[OUTLAW 09]

And the shells just keep on raining in--the last time before Feb 2015 Russian troops and her mercenaries were firing 150 tons per day.

The pro-Russian answer on where the 1000s of #Grad missiles come from, which were fired at the Ukr army in #Luhansk. pic.twitter.com/oBAbi4bTZh


DRONE FOOTAGE from Donetsk Airport, pisky and surroundings https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=309&v=fCPqTQuUfMc …
via @obk pic.twitter.com/zwkyaGIlkE

21:02 #Donetsk @Al_Pod Arty, larger calibre works now, abt 8pm sounded like a battle w/various calibres

20:58 #Pisky @AMykhailova "Explosions in #Spartak direction, hits to Zenit or Opytne. Quiet in Pisky, sporadic tracer bursts"

#Donetsk
20:58 Proletarka @levzeja "First volleys started, not that loud yet"
20:59 @Al_Pod In airport area no lull >1hr

#Donetsk
20:56 @donetsk_ukrop "Morerumble in airport direction"
@Darren_Aro Distant rumble in #Horlivka(?) Donetsk direction

20:47 #Donetsk Volleys at #Opytne via @902Albi @ADivinorum @AMykhailova

#Vesnyane near #Kirovsk @AngelMorbit Troops&hardware concentration, mostly BMPs http://goo.gl/7MsIqG

#Pisky @AMykhailova 93th brigade had 3 wounded in yday's battle, 1 died in hospital

21:08 #Pisky @AMykhailova "BTW Terrific nice large moon can be seen in Pisky,Donetsk, do you see?"
@rechnikato 'We can see here in Avdeevka'

21:10 #Donetsk @GirkinGirkin "Favourite [RUS] show started -shooting at UAV"
21:10 @PVB40 Loud explosion abt 15 min ago

21:08 #Donetsk @CatBoobon Rumble in the center
21:09 @Serzzze "Do they shot down a UAV again?" #ISS_hunting #UFO_safari

21:37 #Mariupol @sir_T_Lawrence "[Rumble] milder than yesterday, but separ's are firing again. Where is #OSCE?"
21:24 #Donetsk Budenovsky ds @UrriKara4en One heavy boom somewhere far in the north.

21:53 #Donetsk @Al_Pod [Loud/heavy shell] burst in airport area, "I hope not in residential area"

#Horlivka 9;46PM
Like yesterday evening, firing can be heard from #Mayorsk https://twitter.com/062_Region/status/595298511803043841 …

#Donetsk 21:38
Boooom in the north, vibration in the air. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/595297041858826240 …

21:57 #Donetsk @donetsk_ukrop
21:59 Proletarsky ds @DoneckiiPatriot Machine gun fire heard

21:40 #Donetsk Kalinovka @Serzzze Rumble in the north started
21:50 @funkermanjke Very loud tanks roar from #Spartak/airport

22:01 #Donetsk @Gong_Ego Quiet, just BTR gun fires in the north, MG fire, explosions, like in #Spartak

22:10 #Donetsk @UkraineSuper1 9 tanks & BTRs in the center from the airport direction

22:08 #Donetsk @Kotya875 Along Kyivsky Ave [very long] tank column, I cannot see but hear rude roar there.
22:15 #Horlivka Kurganka @xy_gorlov4an Rumbles in Mayorsk direction

22:06 #Horlivka Holma @pvinogradov90f Something heavy started to shell

22:29 #Donetsk @14720Maro "What [tracked] loudly and slowly moves via the bridge in Ilyicha Ave?"

22:33 #Donetsk @devi1810 I can hear tracks' clatter moving along Shakhtostroiteley St for few min

[OUTLAW 09]

US now describing Russians & militants in E. Ukraine as "integrated force" rather than Russian-backed separatists http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/us-officials-reveal-russia-increasing-control-over-militants-in-ukraine …

US: Evidence Russians & separatists operating under joint command structure that ultimately answers to Russia http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/us-officials-reveal-russia-increasing-control-over-militants-in-ukraine …

#Russia Army base in #Komsomolske, #Donetsk Region, #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/5eiDQEX6J5
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.6546191,38.0697447,322m/data=!3m1!1e3 …

.@Katz_741: "All woodlines in #Komsomolske-#Telmanove look like this" =huge concentration of Russian armor
pic.twitter.com/WjfhMKIo3i

February Google Earth update of Russian training camp S of #Shakhty, NE of #Rostov
pic.twitter.com/lE7CgihXKz
via @ASpinOfTheWheel

.@StateDept says UAVs in E. #Ukraine are "unmistakable sign of Russia's presence" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/us-officials-reveal-russia-increasing-control-over-militants-in-ukraine … pic.twitter.com/GclMDYfmNK

Video Shows Tanks Belonging to Russian-Backed Fighters Moving Toward Donetsk http://bit.ly/1JlLnwa pic.twitter.com/uvmNqrNKr8

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy Russian troop and her mercenaries with tanks, APCs and SPGs.

Many more vehicle movement reports all translated by @loogunda : pic.twitter.com/zzVX3bcKHW

22:35 #Donetsk @Serzzze 8 tanks via Kalinovka tow/#Makeevka

22:33 #Dzerzhynsk @dimetros7776 "Party started", rumble

22:40 @dimetros7776 Incoming

[OUTLAW 09]

This particular Russian General who works at the JCCC is the actual Russian Combatant Commander for all Russian troops and her mercenaries inside the Ukraine. In theory being in the JCCC he was to be neutral BUT he is anything other than neutral. the position allows him to roam the entire battlefield unhindered as well as the Ukrainian positions and the "two alleged OSCE reps who always accompany him" wear OSCE jackets but are alleged to be GRU.

So if neutral -----WHY is he participating in Russian propaganda news broadcasts beamed into eastern Ukraine and Russia.

Russian general #Lentsov showing his true colors on Russian TV, blaming Ukraine for the shelling HIS ARMY is doing.
https://youtu.be/yWJMbZQ4Eus?t=27s …

[Dishonesty]

Izvarino May 3, 152 mm howitzer battery 3x MSTA-S & 3xMSTA-B with the tractor KamAZ-63501AT.Intersting without Banderite stripes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFcYzjmrNvA

The KamAZ-63501AT was officially accepted to service with the Russian Army only in 2009,replaced the tractor KrAZ (Ukrainians use locally manufactured KrAZ)

http://www.voengruzovik.ru/KAMAZ/KAMAZmustang/KAMAZ-63501at.html

probably Russian tourists

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's new Armata tank just made its debut : http://read.bi/1IH4x1j pic.twitter.com/qzHSrzKBvk

LifeNews has a simple message: “#Russia good, #USA bad.” But the founder of the TV channel lives in - #Brooklyn! http://mashable.com/2015/05/01/russia-lifenews-founder-loves-nyc/#:eyJzIjoidCIsImkiOiJfbm9lMjkzeG9pendmdDZjaCJ9 …

Russian military modernization proceeds apace: Russia's new Bal missile system test-fired in Far East for first time http://tass.ru/en/russia/792206 …

More Russian “fake” news:
Russian site runs fake story claiming @AFP has reported that PM #Yatsenyuk has fled #Ukraine http://puls-planeta.ru/blog/43390244908/ARSENIY-YATSENYUK-BEZHAL-IZ-STRANYI?utm_campaign=transit&utm_source=footer&utm_medium=page_1&domain=mirtesen.ru&paid=1&padw=1 … pic.twitter.com/A7UNHLGwXD

Russia is heading directly back into the dictatorship days of Stalin:
Putin Raises 'Extremism' Fines for Russian Media Tenfold: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-raises-extremism-fines-for-russian-media-tenfold/520181.html … pic.twitter.com/gMXD1RO3U3

#German #press demands more effective #tanks for #war against #Russia | @WSWS_Updates https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/05/04/germ-m04.html …

#Russia Today as a Foreign Agent: Political #Propaganda in a Globalized World http://bit.ly/1brYyQq pic.twitter.com/h0KXqpo3j4

#Poland #Komorowski:units involved in #Russia|n aggression against #Ukraine will march on RedSquare on #VEDay70 #9May http://uatoday.tv/news/komorowski-units-involved-in-russian-aggression-against-ukraine-will-march-on-red-square-on-v-day-425148.html

[OUTLAW 09]

https://en.informnapalm.org/timeline-of-events-in-ato-area-on-may-3-2015-provocations-at-the-limit/

Timeline of Events in ATO Area on May 3, 2015: Provocations at the Limit
Main News
about 1 hour ago

03 May 2015


This timeline was prepared by the InformNapalm team and was based on the information from our insiders in the occupied territories, as well as the information from public sources.

Sector C

Donetsk

Nighttime shelling of Donetsk airport continued until the morning of May 3.

At 09:00 the residents observed a gathering of Russian soldiers (ca. 15 men) near School No 95.

At 10:20 several SUVs and approximately 20 people wearing vests with PRESS inscriptions were observed on Kyivskyi Avenue near Vetka.

Between 10:30 and 12:30 infrequent movement of weaponry, solitary shots and sounds of remote explosions were observed in the city.

Around 13:00 a convoy of militants’ weaponry passed via the center towards Kyivskyi District, towing six howitzers of the calibers over 120mm. The journalists of “Radio Svoboda” were able to film the convoy.

Al Gri, the InformNapalm team expert, identified the weaponry: the video shows three D-30 howitzers (122mm) and three 2A65 Msta-B 152mm towed howitzers. Please note that Kyivskyi District is located less than 10km away from the demarcation line established by the Minsk agreements. Therefore, the presence of guns of over 100mm caliber in this area is a gross violation of the ceasefire agreements.

At 17:05 three MTLB APCs and two Ural trucks, overloaded with fighters of the Sparta terrorist battalion, went northbound through Universytetska Street and Zolote Kiltse.

At 19:40 militants’ heavy artillery started shelling.

At 19:47 the militants of combined Russian-separatist forces (CRSF) towed another set of howitzers towards Donetsk airport.

After 21:00 militants’ Ural trucks moved through Makiivske Avenue towards Donetsk with the frequency of 2-3 vehicles every 20-30 minutes.

At 21:52 the movement of a Strela-10 anti-aircraft system was observed through the Kalininskyi District westwards. It should be noted that the militants use these systems to destroy UAVs.

After 22:20 the shelling by the militants’ heavy artillery started from Putylivskyi District, Durna Balka (47°59’22″N 37°44’41″E) and Kuybyshevska mine.

Closer to the nighttime the militants shelled Yasynuvata, Yakovlivka, and Avdiivka from different parts of Donetsk.

Also, the residents report that militants bombarded Donetsk during the night with mortars located at the track maintenance depot at Yasynuvata station near the railroad security office.

The increased frequency of artillery shelling used by the militants for provocation could be caused by their desire to bargain for more concessions from the Ukrainian authorities. This is also suggested by the latest statement of the DNR representative Denis Pushilin, claiming that the next meeting of the contact group could take place in Minsk in the next two to three days.

Avdiivka

In Avdiivka an OSCE patrol came under artillery fire. The shelling was conducted with 152mm artillery, which is proscribed by the ceasefire agreements. The Chief Monitor of the Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine Ambassador Ertugrul Apakan expressed his deep concern regarding the growing number of incidents, which involve the representatives of SMM in Donbas, as the official site of this organization reported.

Khartsyzk

At 13:02 residents witnessed the first shots of outgoing artillery fire by CRSF militants, which started for no reason. This might indicate the provocative nature of the militants’ actions.

Horlivka

At 23:06 CRSF fired their artillery at Dzerzhynsk suburbs.

At 23:24 powerful outgoing artillery shots were also heard in the central part of the town.

Sectors B and M

Dokuchaivsk

The residents report a strict ban on alcohol for CRSF militants. Violators are punished by being placed in a pit. However, marijuana is not prohibited, which is why many of the militants are high all the time.

Shyrokyne

The militants continued intensive shelling of Shyrokine.

At 19:10 CRSF militants shelled the village with Grad MLRS.

At 19:47 the terrorists continued shelling with 152mm artillery.

A firefight started when the terrorists made a raid attempt, but were pushed back. The fight finished at approximately 22:00. The militants retreated to their positions. Two Ukrainian soldiers were injured. There is no information on casualties among the attackers.

Sector A

After the earlier hostilities, the previous night was relatively calm in Luhansk Oblast. Minor small arms shootouts occurred in Novotoshkivka, on the Bakhmutka highway near Checkpoint 29, and in Katerynivka.

From 16:00 to 16:30 the militants were testing the Ukrainian Army defenses at the fortified post near Krymskevillage. The attack was defeated.

Antratsyt

Sergei Bondarenko (also known as Bondar and Bendiks), the leader of the local terrorist group Rus, who disappeared from the town after his assassination attempt and house-to-house searches, showed up in Krasnoyarskyi Krai in Russia. There he was apprehended by FSB and later released. At the moment Bondar has joined the well-known Russian militant leader and the ataman of “Great Don Army” Nikolai Kozitsyn, looking for support and help in his fight against the LNR commandant’s office.

Translated by Andrii Gryganskyi.

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting new Russian mercenary tactic which reflects the fact they are taking heavy loses and really have no fire discipline as they know Russia just keeps refilling the ammo depots. In some aspects an old soviet military tactic--trying to overwhelm the opponent by just heavy fire even if inaccurate.

Rus-backed militants near #Shyrokyne asked to cease fire 8times y-day to evacWIA, refill ammo, were 1st to violate it http://www.0629.com.ua/news/816936

After every major battle lasting more than four hours the Russian mercenaries seem to need an average of seven local ceasefires to rearm and get replacements for those killed and wounded--not really an effective fighting method. There has been some social media commenting that the mercenaries are using this particular battle area to train their new recruits OR Russian contract fighters, but it seems the manpower cost is becoming to high and it is only a matter of time until the Russian army steps in and attempts to take the town from the Ukrainians--that is the Russian SOP.

This particular fight is taking a shape seen only at the fighting at the Donetsk airport--this time the roles are reversed meaning the Ukrainians are holding the strategic high ground and defensively well bunkered in and while using only 82mm and occasional 120mm mortars are standing firm against tank, APC and heavy artillery strikes that have supported the Russian ground attacks and have not given up any ground--in fact have pushed forward on occasions.

The Russian General Lentsov assigned to the JCCC has been trying to negotiate via the OSCE a DMZ concept where both sides pull back--but based on the really poor record of the mercenaries and Russians holding to any ceasefire the Ukrainian Army units on the ground have been pushing back on the idea. Why--if they pull back and the DMZ is established then the contact line actually is in the suburbs of Mariupol and if the Russian mercenaries wanted to they start an armored assault and be inside Mariupol before the Ukrainians could recover and push back.

BTW--Lentsov commands the CSTO combined "peacekeeping forces".

Mariupol is critical to the Russian mercenaries as it gives them a major port and a strong modern steel industry thus becoming potentially a viable economic state which right now they are not and are basically far from it relying totally on Russian financial support.

The Russian DNR mercenary leader has been threatening the last few days that he was a 30K man army and will take Mariupol.

[OUTLAW 09]

This particular Russian General who works at the JCCC is the actual Russian Combatant Commander for all Russian troops and her mercenaries inside the Ukraine. In theory being in the JCCC he was to be neutral BUT he is anything other than neutral. the position allows him to roam the entire battlefield unhindered as well as the Ukrainian positions and the "two alleged OSCE reps who always accompany him" wear OSCE jackets but are alleged to be GRU.

So if neutral -----WHY is he participating in Russian propaganda news broadcasts beamed into eastern Ukraine and Russia.

Russian general #Lentsov showing his true colors on Russian TV, blaming Ukraine for the shelling HIS ARMY is doing.
https://youtu.be/yWJMbZQ4Eus?t=27s …


#OSCE_SMM *confirm* that proposals for demilitarized zone (DMZ) in #Shyrokyne originate from Russian Col-Gen Lentsov. http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/154916 …

The Russian General Lentsov assigned to the JCCC has been trying to negotiate via the OSCE a DMZ concept where both sides pull back--but based on the really poor record of the mercenaries and Russians holding to any ceasefire the Ukrainian Army units on the ground have been pushing back on the idea. Why--if they pull back and the DMZ is established then the contact line actually is in the suburbs of Mariupol and if the Russian mercenaries wanted to they start an armored assault and be inside Mariupol before the Ukrainians could recover and push back.

Mariupol is critical to the Russian mercenaries as it gives them a major port and a strong modern steel industry thus becoming potentially a viable economic state which right now they are not and are basically far from it relying totally on Russian financial support.

The Russian DNR mercenary leader has been threatening the last few days that he was a 30K man army and will take Mariupol.

"#Shyrokyne - Ongoing fire contact of our forces with the forces of the enemy." https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/595514536549056512 …

Sometimes one does wonder if in fact the OSCE acts in a proRussian manner;
Only an idiot would think Col-Gen Lentsov's plan to "demilitarize" #Shyrokyne would not be to benefit Russian Forces! pic.twitter.com/Xl29ZpFfX5

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting new Russian mercenary tactic which reflects the fact they are taking heavy loses and really have no fire discipline as they know Russia just keeps refilling the ammo depots. In some aspects an old soviet military tactic--trying to overwhelm the opponent by just heavy fire even if inaccurate.

Rus-backed militants near #Shyrokyne asked to cease fire 8times y-day to evacWIA, refill ammo, were 1st to violate it http://www.0629.com.ua/news/816936

After every major battle lasting more than four hours the Russian mercenaries seem to need an average of seven local ceasefires to rearm and get replacements for those killed and wounded--not really an effective fighting method. There has been some social media commenting that the mercenaries are using this particular battle area to train their new recruits OR Russian contract fighters, but it seems the manpower cost is becoming to high and it is only a matter of time until the Russian army steps in and attempts to take the town from the Ukrainians--that is the Russian SOP.

This particular fight is taking a shape seen only at the fighting at the Donetsk airport--this time the roles are reversed meaning the Ukrainians are holding the strategic high ground and defensively well bunkered in and while using only 82mm and occasional 120mm mortars are standing firm against tank, APC and heavy artillery strikes that have supported the Russian ground attacks and have not given up any ground--in fact have pushed forward on occasions.

The Russian General Lentsov assigned to the JCCC has been trying to negotiate via the OSCE a DMZ concept where both sides pull back--but based on the really poor record of the mercenaries and Russians holding to any ceasefire the Ukrainian Army units on the ground have been pushing back on the idea. Why--if they pull back and the DMZ is established then the contact line actually is in the suburbs of Mariupol and if the Russian mercenaries wanted to they start an armored assault and be inside Mariupol before the Ukrainians could recover and push back.

BTW--Lentsov commands the CSTO combined "peacekeeping forces".

Mariupol is critical to the Russian mercenaries as it gives them a major port and a strong modern steel industry thus becoming potentially a viable economic state which right now they are not and are basically far from it relying totally on Russian financial support.

The Russian DNR mercenary leader has been threatening the last few days that he was a 30K man army and will take Mariupol.

Non-stop fighting on frontline in #Shyrokyne for the last 12 hrs according to #Donbas Battalion. #Mariupol https://twitter.com/HromadskeTV/status/595507850140581888 …

[OUTLAW 09]

RT @ylenews Seaman photographs submarine in Gulf of #Finland http://yle.fi/uutiset/7969458 (h/t @SciteCito) pic.twitter.com/7sLH5zKKTV

UKR Embassy in JOR @UKRinJOR
Seven reasons the conflict in Ukraine is actually a Russian invasion
http://euromaidanpress.com/seven-reasons/ pic.twitter.com/FufFWvRr9R

Interesting question is why the declaration of martial law—they stated it was due to the coming Ukrainian offensive but the UA is simply sitting out the shellings and ground attacks.
#Ukraine:In so-called LNR self-proclaimed"#Lugansk People's Republic"introduced martial law. pic.twitter.com/ExGDtwjIAn

RU attacked Ukr forces in #Shyrokyne w heavy artillery, mortars and tank.
#Pavlopil shelled 2 times w 120mm mortars. http://www.0629.com.ua/news/816936?utm_source=api&utm_medium=api …

This is a solid development on the part of the Ukrainian government as the volunteers BNs were being viewed as private army units funded by political groups and or oligarchs—that said they did in fact carry the heavy burden of pushing back the Russian mercenaries and then Russian troops-and have on the whole developed into great fighting units much to the surprise of the Russians. Also takes away one of the Russian primary info war talking points.

#ATO news center says no #Ukrainian volunteer militarized groups are left in the ATO zone https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/993090514035088 … |

First real look at the correlation between Russian cyperwar attacks and their non linear warfare operations.

Interesting post on recent cyber-campaign: 'correlation with military activity.' https://lgscout.com/operation-armageddon-cyber-espionage-as-a-strategic-component-of-russian-modern-warfare/ … pic.twitter.com/dMscn7BsSr

Reference Crimea beaches:
Relax, Russian tank drivers almost never run anyone over. Welcome to Crimea! v @Poluostroff @morozhnoye] pic.twitter.com/vPhbf1t6S5

Interesting accompanying photo—depicts Ukrainian military training on their own TOW version.
Militants attack Ukrainian army positions 27 times overnight
http://www.unian.info/war/1074585-militants-attack-ukrainian-army-positions-27-times-overnight.html … pic.twitter.com/OD8cKNMuqc

Militants tanks near #Alchevsk metallurgical plant pic.twitter.com/j3Yf2VdPkv http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/4-may-militants-tanks-near-alchevsk-metallurgical-plant …

Russian tanks in Donetsk pic.twitter.com/qiN5B3WqgU http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-may-russian-tanks-in-donetsk …

[OUTLAW 09]

#BreakingNews
There is nonstop shelling of #Shyrokyne since 12 hours.
Russians also use tanks near the beach and small arms. - Batt. Donbas

Russian base in Antratsyt pic.twitter.com/diR4aHTV63 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-may-russian-base-in-antratsyt …

#Horlivka @Innulja03 "My gramma lives in #Zaytseve, each night DNR shells tow/#Mayorsk. Thanks God UAF don't fire in reply or we are dead

According to ATO HQ, terrorists planning a civilian attack in Donetsk on May 9 and blame UKR forces.
http://m.censor.net.ua/news/335151/terroristy_pod_vidom_ukrainskih_voyisk_planiruyut_ rasstrelyat_mirnuyu_aktsiyu_v_donetske_9_maya_shta b …

ATO spox #Lysenko: Terrorists disguised as Ukrainian troops are planning to attack peaceful rally in Donetsk on May 9 http://en.censor.net.ua/n335151

How #Russian troops and funding in Eastern #Ukraine is changing the entire economy there http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/forget-tanks-it-s-russia-s-ruble-that-s-conquering-east-ukraine …

[OUTLAW 09]

Non-stop fighting on frontline in #Shyrokyne for the last 12 hrs according to #Donbas Battalion. #Mariupol https://twitter.com/HromadskeTV/status/595507850140581888 …

Assault ended but Russian forces continue shelling Ukrainian positions at #Shyrokyne, using 122mm & 152mm howitizers http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3742/boeviki_perestali_atakovat_i_obstrelivayut_pozicii _sil_ato_pod_mariupolem_iz_tyazheloj_artillerii.ht ml …

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting in that Russia purchased drones from Israel but the Ukraine cannot---???? Interesting that Russia can fly countless drones over the Ukraine But not over Russia—what is fair and equal these days is determined by Russia it seems—and Western assistance is exactly where again???

"An Israeli official... said the drones sale to Ukraine was quashed after Putin phoned Netanyahu to object." https://twitter.com/business/status/595592641103921152 …

Appears those so called ethnic proRussians are now voting with their feet and cars……
Civilians Reported To Be Leaving Donetsk. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-442-ukrainian-military-reports-27-attacks-last-night/#8171 … pic.twitter.com/YFtX0fpo4U

This is what massive exodus from Donetsk following increased shelling looks like

Another “altered state of reality” statement from the Russian FM:

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Politics should not interfere with economic aspects of #Russia-#EU relations, which should develop from natural interests

And another “fake statement”:--what the heck is “strict compliance” WHEN Russia implements nothing and constantly violates Minsk 2—just what has he been smoking today?????

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We insist on strict compliance with the Feb.12 Minsk Agreements, and this work cannot be done without building direct dialogue

WT Heck……..is he thinking when he makes such statements---in a total different planet it seems.
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Brussels and other European capitals assume that #Russia is the only one that should abide by the Minsk Agreements

Russia has absolutely ignored and not implemented a single point of the Minsk 2 and has supported her mercenaries in their non-compliance as well and THEN he makes such a statement?????

Russian naval infantry in the Ukraine:
#Novoazovsk May05 @GirkinGirkin pic.twitter.com/SK0Nm03fYQ

[OUTLAW 09]

Since it was relatively quiet today was hoping for a late shelling -fighting start and hoping the Russian mercenaries were running low on ammo and needed a resupply----

#Donetsk 19:13
Kyivsky distr. - heavy firing continues. Perhaps in the Tocmash plant area. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/595622230840766466 …

#Donetsk 18:00
On the bypass road column of armored vehicles in the direction of #Yasinuvataya https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/595618702533459969 …

#Donetsk today. Under separatists control.
#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/2pMB259wl1

#Donetsk 7:44PM
Sounds like serious battle in airport area, hearing machine guns, tanks and mortars. https://twitter.com/funkermanjke/status/595630187250896899 …

#Donetsk 7:41PM
Kalinovka - Heavy artillery working in north. https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/595629412420288515 …

Y-day these houses in #Shyrokyne were undamaged. At night Rus proxies fired about 90 rockets https://www.facebook.com/andriy.tsaplienko/posts/10153030336214690 … pic.twitter.com/j5PyDzL7Fn

Top view of the new Russian MBT-Kind of reminds me of the WW2 German Tiger or Super Tiger tanks-
pic.twitter.com/tz8TcGQaD2

18:48 #Opytne @AMykhailova Incoming, something heavy.

19:15 #Donetsk @GirkinGirkin Rumble in Putilovka
19:20 Bakiny: "A Putin's vehicles column stopped, waiting for a UAV

When the finger is being pointed at Russian troops and heavy weapons being in the Ukraine --the standard Refrain is "it ain't us"--when the mercenaries are caught firing at the Ukrainian towns and positions their standard refrain is "Ukrainians started it".

It seems they are attemptiong really hard to provoke the Ukrainians into retunring fire so they have an excuse to launch a general offensive--which they are not doing thus a sense of growing frustration on the part of Russia and her mercenaries.

#Horlivka - outgoing shelling towards #Dzerzhynsk.
Ruscists confirm the fire exchange but are saying that "Ukrainians started"

[OUTLAW 09]

Drone footage shows militants' heavy weapons located in Donetsk residential Areas--massive Russian Minsk 2 violation

http://uatoday.tv/society/drone-425438.html …


Video drone footage of Russian-backed militants hiding heavy artillery, tanks and military equipment in residential areas has attracted a lot of attention on the Internet.

One clip attributed to Dnipro-1 air reconnaissance regiment shows a base in a Donetsk neighborhood, replete with military equipment - including tanks - which are banned by the February 12 ceasefire declaration signed in Minsk, Belarus.

Ukrainian officials and international observers have reported thousands of ceasefire violations since the latest truce took effect and more than 100 Ukrainian soldiers have died and over 500 wounded since then.

[OUTLAW 09]

Someone needs to ask the Russian Foreign Minister if they are not in eastern Ukraine--THEN who captured Debaltseve???

A better question would be just who then captured Debaltseve if it was a "Russian victory"??? AND Debaltseve was captured after Minsk 2 went into effect so WHY is the Russian FM complaining--one would think he would remain a tad quiet in order to not draw attention to that fact??? SO again WHO is violating Minsk 2 if not the Russians??

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We insist on strict compliance with the Feb.12 Minsk Agreements, and this work cannot be done without building direct dialogue

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Brussels and other European capitals assume that #Russia is the only one that should abide by the Minsk Agreements

In Russia, a #VictoryDay celebration of Russia capturing Debaltseve Ukraine. 1 sign says "Today Crimea tomorrow Rome" pic.twitter.com/Es8uXtbR7s

@InfoResist "That is just magic. New vehicles move in #Donetsk w/Russian army logo"(that Mall of America logo copy) pic.twitter.com/NX1BLz1KlV
youtu.be/hF27ZrrEDGA

[OUTLAW 09]

Remember now it was the Russian MoD and the Russian FM that both recently stated adamently that there were absolutely no Russian military AD systems in the Ukraine.

Bascially called the US statements lies--so who is now lying???

Joint #Russia-Separatists Forces in #Donetsk today. #Russian Army only tanks T-72 and SAM Strela-10 https://youtu.be/hF27ZrrEDGA

Videos on the other Russian AD systems have been posted a number of times by social media.

[OUTLAW 09]

#Russia soldiers attacking #Artemivsk. 2 #Ukraine soldiers killed, 6 wounded

19:44 #Donetsk @funkermanjke "Heavy volleys from the Airport area, also smallarms, tanks and mortars heard

Ukraine's #Aidar Battalion marks one year on the front lines http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukraine-s-aidar-battalion-marks-one-year-on-the-front-lines-425449.html …

#Luhansk @Edward_Lugansk At 5pm-6:30pm in the west of Luhansk distant outgoing heavy volleys were heard, no such for a Long

20:51 @AMykhailova "#Opytne is shelled again, heavy explosions. We don't reply"
One has to admire a military that digs in, has limited counter battery abilities, limited UAVs, and no real AT defenses AND does not return fire just to argue it is not violating an agreement that they appear to be the only one's holding to.

AND nothing but silence from Obama, Hollande, and Merkel.

21:11 #Avdeevka @rechnikato Quiet here

#Donetsk 9:20PM
Oktyabrsky ds, somewhere betw the train station and near the Putilovksky railway a house is burning https://twitter.com/AlfaNubovsky/status/595654271783276544 …

[OUTLAW 09]

More and more evidence is even "leaking out of Russia" concerning the shooting down of MH17--question is if individuals inside the Putin inner circle including the Russian Defense Minister end up being charged for the shot down--HOW will Russia respond??

Another interesting point is that this has been driven by social media open source analysts from the very beginning who were bascially from the start totally correct down to the exact Russian BUK per number that fired the misssile AND nothing was ever provided by any western intel agency--just how strange is that??

Novaya Gazeta posted leaked report by Russian engineers which proves that MH17 was shot down by BUK M-1 http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/68332.html …

Published a report from Russian experts (not propaganda) that BUK downed #MH17.
Was fired from S. of v.Zaroshenskoe

Approximate coordinates where the BUK was fired: 2.5-3.5km radius, 47.979855, 38.448580

NOW watch the Russian media and their trolls "spin" the story back to the already debunked "it was an Ukrainian BUK"--taking online bets on exactly how long it takes them from the release of an evidently very accurate Russian analysis of the shot down????????

Interesting question is why was it released now??? After attempting to pin it on a Ukrainian ground attack fighter--maybe trying to get ahead of the Dutch investigation results and pending charges.

[OUTLAW 09]

Heads up--Russia adjusting their non linear warfare based on the ongoing experiences seen in the Ukraine and the western responses to that non linear warfare.

Notice the including of the term "information confrontation".


Russia to adjust national security strategy due to Ukrainian crisis, other threats

Russia
May 05, 21:19 UTC+3

Emerging military threats force Russia to adjust the national security strategy till 2020 and the doctrine of Russia’s information security

© Vitaly Nevar/TASS



MOSCOW, May 5. /TASS/. Russia’s Security Council has taken a decision to adjust the national security strategy till 2020 and the doctrine of Russia’s information security, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said in a feature article to be published in Wednesday’s issue of the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper.

Russian Security Council preparing new Doctrine of Russia’s Information Security. Russia's new military doctrine says use of protest moods typical for conflicts nowadays. Russia’s revised military doctrine lists foreign private military firms among threats.

"First of all, it was necessitated by new emerging military threats," he wrote. "Their signs are seen in the developments of the Arab Spring, in Syria and Iraq, in the situation in and around Ukraine."

He noted that pursuing their own interests leading powers were using "indirect actions," relying on popular protests, radical and extremist organizations, private military companies. "The United States and NATO are growing more and more aggressive in respect of Russia. They are building up their offensive potential in the direct proximity to our borders and are actively deploying a global missile defense system," he wrote.

These reasons necessitated amendments to Russia’s military doctrine to outline key tasks of the armed forces, the development of the defence sector and possible steps to prevent armed conflicts. "Russia’s military doctrine was amended in late 2014," Patrushev recalled. "Its updated edition pays more attention to domestic issues, information confrontation. It specified some provisions of the current military doctrine. At the same time, it preserved its defensive nature and reiterated Russia’s pledge to use for the protection of its national interests military methods only when all other non-force methods are exhausted."

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy loss day for the Uklrainian Army that is resisting greatly the inherent urge to return fire--not sure how much longer they can be held on a long lease before they finally start returning fire in order to actually save soldiers from being killed or wounded.

AND still no responses from Obama, Hollande, and Merkel who seem content is allowing the killing to go on and on---seriously holding Putin responsible. But hey words do not cost much these days but silence is really a cheap way out for politicians.

#Avdeevka @AMykhailova 95th brigade has 4 KIA today

Total for today in all combat zones is 6 KIA and 11 WIA.

#Russia's proxies were shelling #Shyrokyne w/ heavy weapons for 2hrs, now stopped. 1 #Donbas serviceman was WIA http://24tv.ua/news/showNews.do?obstril_v_shirokinomu_zakinchivsya_ye_ poraneni&objectId=571947&tag=ukrayina

[OUTLAW 09]

More and more evidence is even "leaking out of Russia" concerning the shooting down of MH17--question is if individuals inside the Putin inner circle including the Russian Defense Minister end up being charged for the shot down--HOW will Russia respond??

Another interesting point is that this has been driven by social media open source analysts from the very beginning who were bascially from the start totally correct down to the exact Russian BUK per number that fired the misssile AND nothing was ever provided by any western intel agency--just how strange is that??

Novaya Gazeta posted leaked report by Russian engineers which proves that MH17 was shot down by BUK M-1 http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/68332.html …

Published a report from Russian experts (not propaganda) that BUK downed #MH17.
Was fired from S. of v.Zaroshenskoe

Approximate coordinates where the BUK was fired: 2.5-3.5km radius, 47.979855, 38.448580

NOW watch the Russian media and their trolls "spin" the story back to the already debunked "it was an Ukrainian BUK"--taking online bets on exactly how long it takes them from the release of an evidently very accurate Russian analysis of the shot down????????

Interesting question is why was it released now??? After attempting to pin it on a Ukrainian ground attack fighter SU-25--maybe trying to get ahead of the Dutch investigation results and pending charges.

Social media is now starting to tear apart the Russian report and noticing problems which all now point to attempting to bending the narrative back to the Ukrainian BUK as being responsible for the shot down of MH17.

Isn't the firing position a long way away from the scorched field? and would also be on the wrong side of the plane to the damage

I am noob in SAMs, but from that village you can't approach the plane from the front. So more likely you right

With the Kremlin's admission that the SU-25 thing was always bunk, I mourn the end of Voloshin, the Spaniard, BBC witnesses, radar photos...

I was wrong. There will always be diehard fans of ole' SU-25 over Ukrainian Buk, like vinyl enthusiasts over CDs.
https://twitter.com/PorKoshenko/status/595670989419196416 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Leaders of #Russia terrorists #DPR and #LPR decided to ignore meeting of Contact Group in #Minsk

Yet they and the Russian Foreign Minister constantly complain the Ukraine will not talk to them and the Ukraine was at the meeting.

So again Russian hyprocrisy especailly since the Russian FM today complained Russia is getting the single blame for not implementing Minsk 2.

So much for actually believing Russia wants a solution--hoping Obama, Hollande and Merkel paid attention to this today.

[OUTLAW 09]

Just another form of Russian non linear warfare---

Balts Say Russian Navy Bullying Undersea Energy Cable Crewshttp://www.rferl.org/content/russia-bullying-undersea-baltic-cable/26996165.html

Notice Russian while complaining the Ukrainians are not implementing Minskl 2 exactly then WHAT are they doing reference the release of POWs a key Minsk 2 demand as they have released all theie POWs.

SBU says around 300 Ukrainian POWs remain in separatist captivity; volunteer says more like 1,000 http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pravda.com.ua%2Frus%2Fnews%2F20 15%2F05%2F5%2F7066863%2F%3Fattempt%3D1 …

22:21 #Donetsk @rechnikato UAV is being shot down again #UFO_safari/#ISS_hunting

22:10 #Luhansk @UkroSpider [Battle sounds] in #Stanytsia_Luhanska direction [no flashes seen, not cannons or MG]

#Luhansk
22:24 East @LUGANSK_TODAY Small arms &smth heavier (MG maybe) rafale in burnt-out Epicenter/Dzerzhynsky block area.

#Donetsk 10:21
Russians are hunting UFO's again https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/595669650966487040 …

#Mariupol residents can hear heavy explosions in #Shyrokyne direction

Russian command vehicle convoy moving on M21. No parade insignia...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4GvnbMMeFs … https://www.google.de/maps/@48.180052,40.375888,3a,75y,284.13h,77.1t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1sJX0-eqcezPVdIYbYcInkQA!2e0 … pic.twitter.com/3Tb0zEZrgX

#Russia new 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV Self-Propelled Gun (SPG) finally unwrapped ahead on May 9 #VictoryDayParadepic.twitter.com/wvS9FPbucK

[OUTLAW 09]

Off Topic BUT well worth the watching of this has English subtitles and is more about the human condition than anything specifically Russian. A very worthwhile use of two hours.

Must watch documentary on Russia's toughest prison. Insightful, compassionate, thought-provoking. Incredible work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKhxTztHdnw …

[OUTLAW 09]

Signing off tonight with some humor for AFG and Iraqi vets---

My idea for the perfect VBIED using the 'hide in plain sight' theory. pic.twitter.com/01Gq2ICbkb

[OUTLAW 09]

#Putin says: "No Russian troops in #Ukraine", but tanks on parade in #Donetsk carry #Russia's Army official insignia. pic.twitter.com/e1eUDQRsZE

Russian (Ground Forces, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Emergency Situations) troops in Donetsk, Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEHf2qjsJsc …

U.S. intelligence agencies still lagging behind, but making progress...
http://news.yahoo.com/us-now-sees-russia-directing-ukraines-rebels-073146944--politics.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=tw …
pic.twitter.com/oLbVFj12TJ

.@StateDept says UAVs in E. #Ukraine are "unmistakable sign of Russia's presence" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/us-officials-reveal-russia-increasing-control-over-militants-in-ukraine … pic.twitter.com/e2mzJwlrlL

1 #Ukrainian serviceman died in combats near #Debaltseve. #Russian proxies shelled at UA position 25 times there. No #Ceasefire

[OUTLAW 09]

Extremely important for the shot down of MH 17 investigation:


SBU Alpha detained terrorist "Grek". One of the terrorists involved in downing #MH17. His voice was on the recording
http://podrobnosti.ua/2032699-sbu-zaderzhala-terrorista-iz-bandy-somali.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

#Malomuzh: Russian militants are preparing offensive in 12 directions http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-may-malomuzh-russian-militants-are-preparing-offensive … via @dmitry_gordon

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, May 6, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/GPXzuc1oJZ

Ukrainians debunking Donetsk May 3rd shelling lies too: it came from NNE = Russian side.
http://informator.lg.ua/?p=89443#more-89443 … pic.twitter.com/qsP1vvP7pu

Russian General Lentsov arrived with 70 staff officers. Now he has 1000s of Russian (army, internal, civil defence) troops in Donbas pic.twitter.com/S6wTtQ5d0V

War criminal Zakharchenko still in wheelchair after ten weeks. Seems to be criple/lost a foot... pic.twitter.com/OZ7PZXjlz1

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian officers confiscated 6 anti-tank grenade launchers, grenades, ammo, explosives during the search of a bus in Dnipropetrovsk reg

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
4 RU citizens arrested for 2 months. They gathered intel and took part in pro-RU subversive groups in Ukraine

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-Russian fighters move their personnel and military supplies closer to the frontline in both Donetsk and Luhansk sectors

[OUTLAW 09]

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
5 Ukrainian servicemen KIA, 12 got wounded in the last 24 hours

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian servicemen spotted 17 flights of enemy UAVs

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Hotspot: Zolote, Tryokhizbenka, Sokilnyky & Stanytsia Luhanska – Luhansk sec. No record of heavy weapons use.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Hotspot: Militants perpetually attack Avdiivka, Pisky, Opytne & outskirts of Horlivka, firing from large mortars and artillery pieces

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Hotspot: Shyrokyne – Mariupol sec. Militants used 152mm artillery from Bezimenne (10km from contact line) – clear violation of Minsk II.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-Russian militants have violated Minsk II, using 120mm mortars, 122mm and 152mm artillery and tanks

.@Yuriy_Sergeyev: #Russia brings us to the abyss of world war that may already be the last one http://un.mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/news/35994-vistup-postijnogo-predstavnika-jurija-sergejeva-na-urochistomu-zasidanni-genasambleji-oon-shhodo-vshanuvannya-zhertv-drugoji-svitovoji-vijni … pic.twitter.com/ulrdnFH8aX

[OUTLAW 09]

Extremely important for the shot down of MH 17 investigation:


SBU Alpha detained terrorist "Grek". One of the terrorists involved in downing #MH17. His voice was on the recording
http://podrobnosti.ua/2032699-sbu-zaderzhala-terrorista-iz-bandy-somali.html …

The Russian info war had at one time over six different "who did it but it was not us stories" floating out there and NOW--what happen??

In the end they will try one more time to blame the Ukrainian BUK that was damaged by the Ukrainians and would have never fired even a rubber band and that story has been massively debunked.

Frontpage of todays Novaya Gazeta "It was the BUK-M1" #MH17 http://bit.ly/1JqbaTY @EliotHiggins pic.twitter.com/jbTqMesTYd

MH17 - Sputnik gets aboard the "It Was Actually A Buk All Along" trainhttp://sputniknews.com/europe/20150506/1021764384.html …

Maybe the fear of murder charges and crimes against humanity coming from the Dutch that shook the tree that could reach as high as the Russian Mod and Putin.

[OUTLAW 09]

IF Russian had not been so busy fighting in the Ukraine and annexing Crimea they could have fulfilled the FTA requirements since they have known all along what they are.

EU has stated everything goes forward on 1 Jan 2016 and Russia can no longer have a say in what EU does and or does not do with the trade association agreement which has been almost ratified by all EU members much to the Russian surprise.

Russia asks EU to delay FTA implementation with Ukraine until 2017http://www.unian.info/economics/1075027-russia-asks-eu-to-delay-fta-implementation-with-ukraine-until-2017.html

Seems Russia is still trying to get a voice at the EU table and have the right to stop anything that pertains to the Ukraine--EU Commissions response to the Russia was "drop dead" we are going forward 1.1.2016.

[OUTLAW 09]

I have been commenting here a number of times that this is the biggest "dream" of Putin--he really does dream of sitting down with the US and "dividing up" the world into Russian and US "spheres of influence".

Befitting a great superpower he thinks both he and Russia are--but he forgot that a military superpower MUST be as well an economic powerhouse which Russia is not.

The Russian regime has been asking for a second Yalta for at least a year. https://twitter.com/JSaryuszWolski/status/595884119382429696 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian MT-LB spotted in Kirovsk is newest model.
http://muromteplovoz.ru/product/mil.php
http://twitter.com/ravelin_by/status/595904323881689088/photo/1pic.twitter.com/eRmd2oidCZ
via @ravelin_by

Shellings have started really early today:

13:19 #Horlivka center @DobryShubin Somewhere from #Yenakiieve/Kalinovka direction volleys are heard

13:02 #Horlivka @Irinkakap Something heavy shells dull far away from the north or northeast.

#Shakhtarsk 12:50
10 russian Ural / Kamaz with fighters, field kitchen on trailers towards east. https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/stat

12:50 #Donetsk @DoneckiiPatriot 2 BMP returned along Dzerzhynskogo Ave tow/reional police office

VIDEO Russian armor in Kirovske, Lugansk oblast geolocated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezj9vj0-Aho …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV1vKzNQq80 … pic.twitter.com/246zZEvWjm

Russian armor in Kirovske, Luhansk region http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-may-russian-armor-in-kirovske-luhansk-region … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV1vKzNQq80 … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/O0q21jk1vD via @DajeyPetros

Poroshenko demands from Russian militants to withdraw "all equipment in next few hours" http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-may-poroshenko-demands-from-the-militants-to-withdraw-all … via @tsnua

Five Ukrainian soldiers killed, 12 wounded in past 24 hours, according to #Ukraine military. Casualties on the increase ahead of Victory Day

[OUTLAW 09]

Did not the Russian FM and MoD declare the US to be lying about Russian AD systems inside the Ukraine--seems they "forgot" to count a few more--these three make it six that have been confirmed just in the last two days alone and a bunch more via videos taken and geo tagged in the Ukraine over the last six months:

#Shakhtarsk
3x Strela-10 SAM's and 2 russian Ural trucks towards #Torez. https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/595899750416715777 …

#Donetsk 1:36PM
Motels - 15 Kamaz and 3 BTR full of fighters towards #Makeevka. https://twitter.com/MelihovKostia/status/595899874715037696 …

14:15 #Donetsk Kyivsky ds @UrriKara4en "Approx in Saint Iveron Convent area a small smoke mashroom, something was hit?"

Militants used MLRS Grad in Pisky http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-may-militants-used-mlrs-grad-in-pisky … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/YSqyLNRTW5 via @SputnikATO

Citizen of #Belarus who fought for #Russia'n-backed militants in #Donbas buried in native town http://belsat.eu/en/articles/citizen-belarus-who-fought-russian-backed-separatists-buried-native-town/ … pic.twitter.com/GZ9YWvmaBp

The #Kremlin’s wars in #Afghanistan and in #Ukraine: ten parallels
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/05/06/the-kremlins-wars-in-afghanistan-and-in-ukraine-ten-parallels/ … pic.twitter.com/GOeIufqsFr

[OUTLAW 09]

More and more evidence is even "leaking out of Russia" concerning the shooting down of MH17--question is if individuals inside the Putin inner circle including the Russian Defense Minister end up being charged for the shot down--HOW will Russia respond??

Another interesting point is that this has been driven by social media open source analysts from the very beginning who were bascially from the start totally correct down to the exact Russian BUK per number that fired the misssile AND nothing was ever provided by any western intel agency--just how strange is that??

Novaya Gazeta posted leaked report by Russian engineers which proves that MH17 was shot down by BUK M-1 http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/68332.html …

Published a report from Russian experts (not propaganda) that BUK downed #MH17.
Was fired from S. of v.Zaroshenskoe

Approximate coordinates where the BUK was fired: 2.5-3.5km radius, 47.979855, 38.448580

NOW watch the Russian media and their trolls "spin" the story back to the already debunked "it was an Ukrainian BUK"--taking online bets on exactly how long it takes them from the release of an evidently very accurate Russian analysis of the shot down????????

Interesting question is why was it released now??? After attempting to pin it on a Ukrainian ground attack fighter--maybe trying to get ahead of the Dutch investigation results and pending charges.

Looks like the Russians were "fudging" on the missile launch site:

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Looks like there's more and more evidence that the claimed launch area in the leaked Russian MH17 report is false

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Russian engineers’ report on MH17 crash ‘based on fake photos from Russian General Staff’ http://www.unian.info/war/1075119-russian-engineers-report-on-mh17-crash-based-on-fake-photos-from-russian-general-staff.html

Russian aviation expert Lukashevich debunks MH17 "leaked expert report": damage patterns don't match presented claims http://www.buran.ru/MH17/ng.jpg

A little review of RU claims about #MH17. :-D pic.twitter.com/cVQduMCwd4

[OUTLAW 09]

.@OSCE_SMM: Massing of Russia-backed separatist forces, increased military movement in #MinskAgreement off-limit area
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm

Russian-Backed Separatists Have Captured 28 Towns and Villages Since February's 'Ceasefire' http://bit.ly/1JqJ2Qp pic.twitter.com/S8CYOxTTND

#Minsk ceasefire deal is dead - Lithuanian President http://uatoday.tv/politics/minsk-ceasefire-deal-is-dead-lithuanian-president-425631.html … pic.twitter.com/lM5dObGvPQ

Russia continues to mass soldiers and armor near Mariupol (Video)
http://www.unian.info/war/1075164-russia-continues-to-mass-soldiers-and-armor-near-mariupol-video.html …

Notice the Russian “altered state of reality” is lashing out at even now the EU;
Russia (which occupies part of Ukraine) accuses EU (which occupies no part of Ukraine) of not wanting peace... http://bit.ly/1GOhO3t

Zakharchenko: Ukrainian security forces will start provocations in "DPR" on May 8 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-may-zakharchenko-ukrainian-security-forces-will-start-provocations … #Ukraine via @lifenews_ru

[OUTLAW 09]

Shellings and ground attacks have slowed way down today--need to see if this continues through the evening and into night time.

A lot of military equipment on the move as well as troops but no real fighting as of yet today.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://uatoday.tv/news/poroshenko-revision-of-minsk-agreement-unacceptable-425635.html

Poroshenko: Revision of Minsk agreement unacceptable


Ukrainian President speaks to delegates of the Trilateral Contact Group on resolving Donbas confilct

UNIAN: Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Wednesday that no revision of the Minsk agreement was acceptable to Ukraine, and called on Russia to implement it in full.

The president was speaking during a meeting with Ukrainian delegates to sub-working groups of the Trilateral Contact Group on finding a peaceful settlement to the situation in the Donbas, according to the press office of the head of the state.

"No reversals, no changes in format, no deviations from Minsk agreements are acceptable or admissible to us," the press office said, quoting the Ukrainian president.

"No revisions of the Minsk agreement will be accepted by Ukraine, nor by our international partners. We strongly urge the signatories of the agreement in Minsk, primarily the Russian Federation, to undertake exhaustive measures to ensure the implementation of the Minsk agreement in full," Poroshenko said.

NOTICE after the DNR and LNR reps stated they would not attend the ongoing Minsk talks—they flew in this morning—someone must have called from Moscow.

However Interfax-Belarus reports that representatives from both the DNR and their fellow separatists in the Lugansk region are present today.

Both Denis Pushlin and Vladislav Daynevo (representatives for the DNR and LNR respectively) flew into Minsk this morning and are participating in the talks.

[OUTLAW 09]

After a number of recent Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons even against the US it is wise to understand Russian nuclear doctrine updated 2012 and again in 2013.

#Russia|n theory of nuclear use ..
Escalate to de-escalate pic.twitter.com/0Nb3D08h6X

#Russia|n theory of nuclear de-escalation: pic.twitter.com/ueH3AFM2wz

[OUTLAW 09]

Shellings and ground attacks have slowed way down today--need to see if this continues through the evening and into night time.

A lot of military equipment on the move as well as troops but no real fighting as of yet today.

Has started again this evening--how intense will be the question---

#News
One civilian was injured (and a cow killed) in Russian mortar shelling of #Dzerzhinsk suburbs c. from #Horlivka.
Three homes damaged.

[OUTLAW 09]

EUCOM commander/SACEUR @PMBreedlove: The U.S./NATO must adapt. The stakes are high but we must not shy away from that because...Russia is not.

We are now just a few days away from a Russian general offensive and an Ukrainian defensive operation—it really is strange—the West remains silent--almost as if they do not really care any more.

The Russians are waiting for this round of Minsk talks to conclude with nothing really happening there and then his super large parade to occur—then we are off to the races.

movement on both sides of contact line,significant amount of “DPR” infantry forces in #Donetsk #Ukraine http://www.osce.org/node/155346

[OUTLAW 09]

Tymchuk: intense Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions continues & Russia has massed dozens of armoured vehicles/3000 troops near Mariupol

Russia continues to blame everyone else for their buildup and ceasefire violations before they attack Mariupol. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/05/05/uk-ukraine-crisis-idUKKBN0NQ1RB20150505 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin advises Ukrainian refugees should "earn their living on their own"
http://www.unian.info/politics/1075262-putin-advises-ukrainian-refugees-should-earn-their-living-on-their-own.html … pic.twitter.com/ecF2YUMz7t

Appears the Russia is not so friendly in supporting ethnic proRussians who fled the Ukraine for Russia--maybe he is all out of money??


Russia still has not given up on creating a single economic/political zone under her control from Portugal to the Russian Far East----
Strong emphasis on Eurasia in Lavrov's Vienna speech. http://mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/E3CB7E7A11B1341443257E3D003D4323 … pic.twitter.com/4k7U0kXgpj

What he really wants is the destruction of the EU and kicking the US out of Europe--why he sees both as neo liberal. Destruction of western neo liberalism is a mainstream theme for Russian fascists.

[OUTLAW 09]

Shellings this evening are actually on the light side of what has been the norm lately—strange—but heavy troop and equipment movements by both sides –more so the mercenary side as they are moving up both troops and heavy weapons back into the front lines in clear violation of Minsk 2.

Hranitne was mortared by #Russia-backed militants. 60y.o. civilian is injured, in hospital now http://www.mariupol.tv/news/war/mariupol/3755/pod_mariupolem_v_rezultate_obstrela_boevikov_ranen _mestnyj_zhitel.html … pic.twitter.com/2P3WmhXeaL

These four aircraft have been sitting on the ground for an extended period-unusual for that to happen in the Russian AF as this is not their standard airbase.

4x Russian Air Force IL-76 heavy transport aircraft at Taganrog, Russia (45km from Ukraine) 6 May (via @GirkinGirkin) pic.twitter.com/LUSHcBQDsh

[OUTLAW 09]

Shelling intensity is now up as are the ground attacks including Russian SF troops reported for the first time since Debaltseve fighting.

22:42 #Donetsk @14720Maro I can hear shooting & see shimmering red lights going up over Kalinovka in SE

22:37 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Automatic guns fr/#Yakovlivka direction & signal rockets
22:40 #Donetsk @BylByleva_ Rumble

Rumble in #Tryokhizbenka-#Slovyanoserbsk area - heavy artillery, MLRS http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-may-

22:40 #Donetsk @papandopoolo Pretty loud rumble heard in the center, various calibres
@Al_Pod Center hears from Kalinovka d-n

22:38 #Donetsk @rechnikato They shoot a UAV down again. A signal rocket in #Pisky direction

Luhansk - flashes visible in E qrtrs. They're firing tow Stanitsya Luhanska fr the Prince Igor monum.
https://twitter.com/LuhanskHunta/status/596043336512905216

22:38 #Donetsk @HuAdvokatos Atempts to shoot a UAV down again

22:22 @qpaust About an hour ago there was rumble in #Tryokhizbenka-#Slovyanoserbsk area - heavy artillery, MRLS

22:10 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Some skirmish in Grigorievka area like AGL. Several red signal rockets

Militants shell ATO forces from banned weapons 32 times on May 6
http://www.unian.info/war/1075325-militants-shell-ato-forces-from-banned-weapons-32-times-on-may-6.html … pic.twitter.com/Gi3zeoDK42

Near Stanitsya Luhanska - war.
22:50 https://twitter.com/100007182042214/status/596042280064131075 …
#Ukraine soldiers report about movement of #Russia special forces near #Stanytsia #Luhanska

[OUTLAW 09]

Poroshenko: over 90,000 Russian-backed militants, regular troops in Donbas
http://www.unian.info/war/1075302-poroshenko-over-90000-russian-backed-militants-regular-troops-in-donbas.html … pic.twitter.com/8oWSWZJk2X
40,000 #Russia|n-backed militants, regular troops in Donbas, 50000 at border

These pictures show 2 T-72B1 that were sent to Donbas after participation in the show "Tank Biathlon"
pic.twitter.com/rKGVONrJQF
via @askai707

And here is one more...
pic.twitter.com/3SIYGaCx50
@askai707

Spot the difference 1. Left: Russian MVD Internal troops in Moscow. Right: Russian "DPR" Internal troops in Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/xZ4r3qid1X

Spot the difference 2. Left: Russian EMERCOM Civil Defence troops. Right: Russian "DPR" Civil Defence troops Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/5SnPh07tTQ

Non-stop fighting at #Ukraine frontline, but "consensus' on paper after a meeting of a "contact group" in #Minsk. http://zn.ua/POLITICS/v-minske-zavershilis-peregovory-trehstoronney-kontaktnoy-gruppy-175275_.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

#Breaking
"Russian military on Ukrainian soil"
@BILD again 1st German newspaper reporting it.
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/militaerwaffen/das-ist-putins-neuer-protz-panzer-40840116.bild.html … pic.twitter.com/aTXLKln8c4

War criminal Zakharchenko says 'Ukrainian provocations' will start on May 8th. So prepare for nasty Russian tricks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-p8eDJixNk …
Zakharchenko, head of Donetsk says his "Republic" is as rich as Arab Emirates because it has coal & metallurgy.A real clown

More Russian heavy weapons from photos on Russian FaceBook
pp.vk.me/c625320/v625320069/28130/DK_WY9T9ZEY.jpg …
https://pp.vk.me/c625320/v625320069/28127/XqERvVENHXs.jpg …
pic.twitter.com/DtlJSDSdZp

Lookingglass Cyber Intelligence Group Links #Russia to #Cyber Espionage Campaign Targeting #Ukraine Govt -v @LGScout
https://lgscout.com/lookingglass-cyber-threat-intelligence-group-links-russia-to-cyber-espionage-campaign-targeting-ukrainian-government-and-military-officials/ …

Social Network Analysis Reveals Full Scale of #Kremlin's Twitter #Bot Campaign - @LawrenceA_UK
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2015/04/02/analyzing-kremlin-twitter-bots/ … pic.twitter.com/WIRiAahLN5

[OUTLAW 09]

Shelling intensity is now up as are the ground attacks including Russian SF troops reported for the first time since Debaltseve fighting.

22:42 #Donetsk @14720Maro I can hear shooting & see shimmering red lights going up over Kalinovka in SE

22:37 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Automatic guns fr/#Yakovlivka direction & signal rockets
22:40 #Donetsk @BylByleva_ Rumble

Rumble in #Tryokhizbenka-#Slovyanoserbsk area - heavy artillery, MLRS http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-may-

22:40 #Donetsk @papandopoolo Pretty loud rumble heard in the center, various calibres
@Al_Pod Center hears from Kalinovka d-n

22:38 #Donetsk @rechnikato They shoot a UAV down again. A signal rocket in #Pisky direction

Luhansk - flashes visible in E qrtrs. They're firing tow Stanitsya Luhanska fr the Prince Igor monum.
https://twitter.com/LuhanskHunta/status/596043336512905216

22:38 #Donetsk @HuAdvokatos Atempts to shoot a UAV down again

22:22 @qpaust About an hour ago there was rumble in #Tryokhizbenka-#Slovyanoserbsk area - heavy artillery, MRLS

22:10 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Some skirmish in Grigorievka area like AGL. Several red signal rockets

Militants shell ATO forces from banned weapons 32 times on May 6
http://www.unian.info/war/1075325-militants-shell-ato-forces-from-banned-weapons-32-times-on-may-6.html … pic.twitter.com/Gi3zeoDK42

Near Stanitsya Luhanska - war.
22:50 https://twitter.com/100007182042214/status/596042280064131075 …
#Ukraine soldiers report about movement of #Russia special forces near #Stanytsia #Luhanska

Ash Carter: Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine appear “prepared for another round of military action” http://news.usni.org/2015/05/06/secdef-ash-carter-repbulican-congressional-budget-proposal-is-a-road-to-nowhere …

[OUTLAW 09]

#Pictures
New Russian tanks arrive in #Donetsk.
One carries "Orjol Oblast"-similar flag.
pic.twitter.com/q7ggBPw1o9

New Russian tanks arriving in #Donetsk? Video from today: https://instagram.com/p/2V5SqSRe4K/ Not painted for the parade... pic.twitter.com/PfpJIXrrz4

Russian Ground Forces sneak tanks into Donetsk under cover of 9 May #VictoryDayParade rehearsals... https://twitter.com/el_roosevelt/status/596057221479432192 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Ash Carter: Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine appear “prepared for another round of military action” http://news.usni.org/2015/05/06/secd...oad-to-nowhere …

[OUTLAW 09]

Evening and early morning shellings were lighter.


#Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Bright and early it rumbles.

#Russia-backed militants fired at Ukr positions 11 times from 6pm till midnight (42 times y-day) w/ mortars, grenade launchers - ATO news

Spot the local miners, tractor drivers ..
#Donetsk #Ukraine V-day rehearsal pic.twitter.com/IoTsEY0CCX

#Russia|n Emergency Ministry troops [left in pic1] & Internal Affairs troops in #Donetsk at V-day rehearsals
#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/o9MbYrUXTN


"You may sit on the BTR now, but please back off then!"
Wonderful. See Motorola's face! Does he realize *it* ?!! ... pic.twitter.com/fwP33VAF63

#PRICELESS !!
#RussianVolunteers get kicked off the #May9 parade in #Donetsk by #RussianArmy.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgB5XkKrr7Q … pic.twitter.com/8Z6YzNiIzn

[OUTLAW 09]

Extremely interesting bit of info on the new Russian MBT:

Now it breaks down in full view of the public and has to be towed away.

Russia's new hi-tech #Armata tank breaks down during Victory Day parade rehearsal http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32628236?ocid=socialflow_twitter … pic.twitter.com/mlZOYWG8jU

I posted here one of the first social media videos of the new MBT being shipped from the Russian tank testing center and a video of the new MBT driving in and or near their tank testing center.

There was a single social media report that it had broken down during the parade prep at the testing center--rumored was problems with the electronics/electrical systems for the steering control--appears the tank is highly dependent on a new electronics/electrical system for just about everything.

Interesting in that they had always developed weapon systems for a basic soldier from a farm not one having to hold an electrical engineers degree.

Kind of reminds me of the problems the US Army had with the Sheridan tank which was also dependent on a for it's time ---modern electrical system for driving and firing and was highly problematic in high moisture areas of the world ie Vietnam.

[OUTLAW 09]

Extremely interesting bit of info on the new Russian MBT:

Now it breaks down in full view of the public and has to be towed away.

Russia's new hi-tech #Armata tank breaks down during Victory Day parade rehearsal http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32628236?ocid=socialflow_twitter … pic.twitter.com/mlZOYWG8jU

I posted here one of the first social media videos of the new MBT being shipped from the Russian tank testing center and a video of the new MBT driving in and or near their tank testing center.

There was a single social media report that it had broken down during the parade prep at the testing center--rumored was problems with the electronics/electrical systems for the steering control--appears the tank is highly dependent on a new electronics/electrical system for just about everything.

Interesting in that they had always developed weapon systems for a basic soldier from a farm not one having to hold an electrical engineers degree.

Kind of reminds me of the problems the US Army had with the Sheridan tank which was also dependent on a for it's time ---modern electrical system for driving and firing and was highly problematic in high moisture areas of the world ie Vietnam.


Two more fails of new Russian Armata tank.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YDCyRT7Luo …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olsjDvgamfY …
via @Ukroblogger

VIDEO Russian Armata tank breaks down at rehearsal for Victory Day. #Lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S93ebaJXtXU …

Armata broke down on Red Square live on TV http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2015/7-may-armata-broke-down-on-red-square-live-on-tv … #Russia pic.twitter.com/rSDkAXdvQw

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-dog-that-finally-barked-separatism-and-hybrid-warfare-in-ukraine#.VUuTyOW_GLc.twitter

May 6, 2015

The Dog That Finally Barked? Separatism and Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine

Kremlin Targets Sleepy Corner of Europe with Hybrid Tactics

By Emmet C. Tuohy

Partial citation:
A sign informs motorists of entering the territory of the autonomous Moldovan province Gagauzia, March, 27, 2014. Russia has just offered a lifeline for the winemakers of Gagauzia, an autonomous region of Moldova whose leaders do not agree with the country's push to join the European Union. Moscow banned wines from Moldova last year, depriving the industry of its biggest market - worth over $100 million annually - in what was widely seen as punishment for the former Soviet republic's drive to join the EU. But Mihail Formuzal, governor of Gagauzia, home to a 150,000 ethnic Turkic minority whose leaders oppose Moldova's EU course because of their Orthodox beliefs and history of close ties with Russia, has won an exclusive reprieve. REUTERS/Viktor Dimitrov

But analysts have missed southwestern Ukraine's multiethnic Budjak region. Despite its obscurity, this region matters. It borders Moldova's pro-Russia southern enclave, Gagauzia, and is not far from Transnistria, the frozen conflict area wedged between Moldova and Ukraine. Gagauzia recently held a referendum in which the population overwhelmingly rejected Moldova's association agreement with the European Union. Transnistria is host to some 1,500 Russian troops and 400 peacekeepers. There is a real chance for spillover from Moldova, which—like Ukraine—Russia is trying to shift from pursuing a European course.


Emmet C. Tuohy is a Research Fellow at the International Center for Defense & Security in Tallinn, Estonia. As part of a US Fulbright fellowship in 2006-07, he carried out field work in the Budjak region.

[OUTLAW 09]

Car blown up this morning in Donetsk. Possible hit with artillery http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/7-may-car-blown-up-this-morning-in-donetsk-possible-hit-with … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/wzZi51d8Iv via @14720Maro

Suspicions abound as #Chechen fighters make mysterious exit from #Donbas battlefield http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/suspicions-abound-as-chechen-fighters-make-mysterious-exit-from-donbas-battlefield-388012.html … pic.twitter.com/rph9rAyFGV

Initial reporting indicated they had been pulled out as they had taken a series of high loses (over 40 KIA in one battle alone) in direct fighting near Mariupol --they had been told by the Russian officers to fight and they pushed back saying it was a slaughter to do what the Russian officers were telling them to do--seems they were in fact correct that the Russian officers made some bad decisions.

Interesting due to the fact that the Chechens were the single largest foreign fighter group in the Russian mercenary army.

#DPR created it's own 'Flotilla', not very impressive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNes60BMTlg …

Ukraine's President Orders New Troop Mobilization, Warns of Impending Russian Offensive http://bit.ly/1E9KZgz pic.twitter.com/oHgCK8WWKT

SBU catches those who bankrolled miners’ strikes in Kyiv http://zik.ua/en/news/2015/05/07/sbu_catches_those_who_bankrolled_miners_strikes_in _kyiv_587677 … via @tvzikua

Was a Russian sponsored event to get Russian media PR and to embarrass the Ukrainian government--
US ambassador: separatists in Donbas getting ready to resume war http://zik.ua/en/news/2015/05/07/us_ambassador_separatists_in_donbas_getting_ready_ to_resume_war_587661 … via @UGCC

Spot the brand new #Russia|n Strela-10 SAMs, Grad systems, tanks, armor at V-day rehearsals in #Donetsk #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/h8srpBnXK5

Lithuania in NATO @LitdelNATO
#Sweden & #Lithuania unitedly protest #Russian attempts to disrupt work on undersea cable @WSJ http://goo.gl/MtISHw pic.twitter.com/jwsFwENS61

Air Force Freak @AirForceFreak74
RUS Border Guard checking western borders. Picture taken 1300Z pic.twitter.com/2yqJbUhCXb

Mr. Plotnizkiy, smuggler and illegal mining guy is now pretending he is a King of Lugansk Soviets. https://twitter.com/againsteridm/status/596332792570576896 …

"LPR" head Plotnytsky at military parade http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/7-may-lpr-head-plotnytsky-at-military-parade … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/wmkvT2hgcz via @againsteridm

[OUTLAW 09]

One area the Russian military will never make it:

http://www.matthewaid.com/post/118374183661/photos-show-rq-170-stealth-drone-being-refueled

Photos Show RQ-170 Stealth Drone Being Refueled

May 7, 2015

Leak Shows Possible Super Sentinel Spy Drone Receiving a Boom In-Air Refuel

Jason Mick

Daily Tech

May 6, 2015


This new “Super Sentinel” could stay aloft for weeks with help from local fuel tankers

Outside of small battery operated drones (aka “unmanned aerial vehicles” (UAVs)), most military drones run on the same thing that traditional combat aircraft do – fossil fuels. But fuel is, of course, a finite resource limiting the range of the U.S. military’s fleet of fully-controlled and semi-autonomous drones. Newly leaked photos reveal that the military may at long last have a dramatically improved solution for that – at least for certain bleeding-edge drone models.

I. Boom Appears to Refuel Drone in Leaked Photos

The photos were obtained by Gawker Media’s Jalopnik on the subsite “Foxtrot Alpha.” The author of the piece, Tyler Rogoway says he “would rate as good” the source of the photos. He also states that the source “wishes to remain anonymous.”

The photos depict a drone craft preparing to refuel (the actual connection isn’t shown, but the source say it happened soon thereafter). Here’s the original photos:

And here’s a set of brightness/tint autocorrected versions I created in Photoshop:

Assuming these are authentic, they are a big deal for two reasons. First, to date the only photographic evidence we have of the U.S. military employing aerial refueling on a drone comes from a Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) release from last month, in which the defense contractor offered up photographic proof that its U.S. Navy unmanned combat air vehicle demonstrator, the X-47B, successfully sipped fuel delivered from a Omega KC-707 tanker (a modified Boeing Comp. (BA) 707) via a probe-and-drogue approach.

To read the rest of his article as well as see the photos accompanying it, click here.

[OUTLAW 09]

Two more fails of new Russian Armata tank.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YDCyRT7Luo …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olsjDvgamfY …
via @Ukroblogger

VIDEO Russian Armata tank breaks down at rehearsal for Victory Day. #Lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S93ebaJXtXU …

Armata broke down on Red Square live on TV http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2015/7-may-armata-broke-down-on-red-square-live-on-tv … pic.twitter.com/rSDkAXdvQw

NOTE:

Commander of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation: "Armata" - a breakthrough in world tank manufacturing :)))) pic.twitter.com/UNl49kMpmd

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian shellings and ground attacks came a tad early tonight:

#OSCE #Ukraine reports hearing #Grad rockets being fired http://bit.ly/1zFld7e pic.twitter.com/Z5Q5cI0ESK

The enemy is firing on our troops' positions in #Shyrokyne with 122-mm artillery, mortars and small arms. #Mariupol https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/596360478818967552 …

@Guderian_Xaba The canonade can be heard in #Mariupol.

#Donetsk 19:32
Heavy volleys in the airport area.
Volleys fall after 13 seconds. https://twitter.com/funkermanjke/status/596351838556975104 …

#Shakhtarsk 19:45
BMP, 7 tanks, 3 MT-LB and 2 Urals with fighters towards #Donetsk. https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/596356215665520640 …

GAZelle truck with ammo exploded near #Donetsk, on the bypass road by Shyrokyi http://24tv.ua/n572633

Positions of our troops near #Sokolniki and Stanitsya Luhanska was under enemy fire by AGS's and small arms. https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/596368227392950272 …

16:12 #Donetsk @Ykraino4_ka [Several] MSTA-S & D-30 along Chelyuskintsev tow/the city, all freshly painted & festive

6-8am @SPaWN_ua In #Hranitne area up to 80 120mm bomb hits. No mil casualties, 1 civilian died "together w/his house"

15:00 #Donetsk @KalinaiMalina Distant gunfire in #Pisky direction

OSCE SMM registers intensive attacks on Shyrokyne http://24today.net/open/401898 pic.twitter.com/qzattPvD6Y

#Horlivka 20:11
120-mm mortars working on #Shumy-#Dzerzhynsk-#Mayorsk https://twitter.com/NovaGorlivka/s

Strongholds of our forces near #Pisky, #Hranitne, #Optyne shelled by invaders with 120-mm mortars. https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/596362032485654528 …

#Horlivka 19:59
Kurganka - very loud. Hitting very close. https://twitter.com/xy_gorlov4an/status/596358688643887104 …

[OUTLAW 09]

US commander @PMBreedlove: A revanchist #Russia is a growing threat: https://goo.gl/8ypfXN pic.twitter.com/u7rC1btHSv

Russia is now in the process of cutting OSCE off from the only two border crossing points they are “allowed by Russia to monitor”:

OSCE mission reports problems accessing checkpoints on Ukrainian-Russian border that ar http://24today.net/open/402101 pic.twitter.com/d4RG82KsVM

Truncated piece on a very complex issue: Stalin, "hybrid history" and the struggle for national memory in Russia. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11585936/The-growing-struggle-in-Russia-about-historical-memory-and-Stalin.html …

Exclusive Interview: Adam Osmayev - commander of Chechen volunteer battalion fighting for Ukraine http://ln.is/uatoday.tv/politics/NbQvA …

An undersea electricity cable is the latest point of friction between Russia and the Baltics http://on.wsj.com/1PqxnD5 pic.twitter.com/EDjDUhqzLa

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference the withdrawal of Chechen fighters:

The leader of #DNR gave the order to disarm the "Cossacks" pic.twitter.com/mwTOBRR4mr http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/7-may-the-leader-of-dnr-gave-the-order-to-disarm-the-cossacks …

[OUTLAW 09]

With some considerable cunning, Lavrov uses German FM meet in Volgograd in attempt to detach NATO from Minsk process. http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2015/05/07/1396248.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

#BREAKINGNEWS
Heavy Russian attack ongoing near #Horlivka.
2 Ukrainian troops of the 30th brigade killed, 9 wounded so far.

[OUTLAW 09]

19:45 #Shakhtarsk @Helgi__UA 1 BTR, 7 tanks, 3 MT-LB, 2 Urals w/troops towards #Donetsk
07:52 And 1 MT-LB

15:08 #Donetsk @UkraineSuper1 From Tochmash Artemivska St a mortar-SPG shells each 10-20sec

16:59 @rechnikato "One can hear ceasefire from #Spartak direction"

RU shelled w mortars, AGS & small arms our positions near #Katerinovka, #Zolotoe, #Rosadki, #Svìtlodarsk and #Lozove https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/596378143927226369 …

16:53 #Avdeevka @bamr69 1hr ago massive explosions in #Opytne area

.@l_vinchenso It was reported, RUS shelled #Myronivsky settlement near #Svitlodarsk. Kalinina St damaged, hit to #156

Canada OSCE ✔ @Canada2OSCE
Rebels' stated intention to parade heavy weapons in restricted zone on May 9th is in clear violation of #Minsk agreements

Russian forces use #Grad missiles according to the Coordinating Center at the headquarters of the ATO via 112.ua

17:09 #Donetsk @krimtsev no MTS mobile connection, backbone link was damaged

17:12 #Luhansk @BanderaLife no MTS for 40min

OSCE Observes Fighting and Protests, Says Their UAVs Were "Jammed" Near Donetsk http://bit.ly/1ET4htb pic.twitter.com/htXtGn8ySk

MIA: Defensive positions near #Artemivsk were shelled w/#Grad, 2 KIA, 9 servicemen wounded via @SputnikATO

18:06 #Donetsk @ropogckou MTS mobile communication is dead for 1hr, other operators work fine

19:50 #Krasniy_Luch @Debrial_UA Mobile operators work fine inside the town

19:58 @Helgi__UA 9 more Ural trucks eastwards from #Donetsk, not covered [to take ammo].

20:06 #Donetsk @DobryShubin #MTS fiber optic cable is broken between #Volnovakha & #Novotroitsk

19:42 #Krasniy_Luch @ukropchik65 Kyivstar & MTS mobile operators are down, Life works in places. [from outside Donbass]

U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce
Today at the OSCE, we again called on #Russia to cease efforts to destabilize #Ukraine - READ: http://1.usa.gov/1KPBurt pic.twitter.com/B42JrlDGWH

Five full volleys of #Russia MLRS Grad fired in direction of #Dzerzhynsk from #Horlivka

20:46 #Horlivka @NovaGorlivka "Small arms fire advanced to artillery one, volleys fr/Hluboka/Rtutny/Bessarabka"

#Horlivka
20:27 @DobryShubin Volleys tow/Kurganka

[OUTLAW 09]

#BREAKINGNEWS
Heavy Russian attack ongoing near #Horlivka.
2 Ukrainian troops of the 30th brigade killed, 9 wounded so far.

Russians shelled Ukrainian Army positions near #Horlivka massively with GRADs

20:11 #Horlivka @NovaGorlivka 120mm mortars started to work tow/#Shumy-#Dzerzhynsk/#Mayorks

MIA: Defensive positions near #Artemivsk were shelled w/#Grad, 2 KIA, 9 servicemen wounded via @SputnikATO

Many reports about fighting in #Ukraine at several places, situation near #Horlivka escalating: 2 Ukraine soldiers killed, 9 wounded.

#Horlivka
20:27 @DobryShubin Volleys tow/Kurganka

[OUTLAW 09]

There were indications after a major battle this last summer that Russian troops had taken a large number of Ukrainian POWs when they had the Ukrainians surrounded--the Russian officers offered the Ukrainians safe passage out of the encirclement only to fire on them as they fled killing a large number--the POWs that were taken were never swapped out during any of the prisoner exchanges NOW we understand WHY.

A volunteer search group have discovered 560 bodies of #Ukraine servicemen #KIA in the #Donbas since Sept 2014. http://zaxid.net/news/showNews.do?z_veresnya_poshukova_grupa_viyavila_na _donbasi_tila_560_ukrayinskih_voyiniv&objectId=1350617 …
pic.twitter.com/UgAuRNU8Ln

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/best-of-friends-why-reassuring-european-allies-is-a-job-for-special-forces

May 7, 2015

Best of Friends: Why Reassuring European Allies is a Job for Special Forces

By Magnus Nordenman

Partial quote:
US and European special forces have been incredibly busy over the last decade in global hot spots such as Iraq and Afghanistan. But as major counterinsurgency operations recede, there is still work for them to do, not least in Europe where they could play a key role in re-assuring US allies and deterring Russian aggression. SOF could be just as effective in deterring and defending against little green men as they have been in combating insurgents and terrorist networks.

The Ukraine crisis has triggered a scramble by both the United States and NATO to find ways to quickly reassure the Alliance's eastern members, such as the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania. Already the United States has sent airborne infantry to the Baltic states, bolstered Baltic air policing, and sent F-16 fighter jets to both Romania and Poland. The recent Dragoon Ride exercise demonstrated the ability of a US Army cavalry unit to move quickly through the Baltic states, Poland, Czech Republic and Germany. European allies have contributed too, with Norway, Denmark, and the UK, among others, sending troops to the Baltic states for live-fire exercises. The Obama administration has also announced a $1 billion "European Reassurance Initiative," that will help pay for US military reassurance efforts in Europe over the next year. Coming out of the Wales Summit in 2014, the Alliance is also at work on a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, which is intended to be able to quickly bring credible combat power to anywhere within Alliance territory, and beyond. Admittedly, this effort has proven to be slow going, but it is an important step in the right direction

Magnus Nordenman is deputy director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security.

[OUTLAW 09]

Intense fighting and shelling tonight…………

Battle in #Novoluhanske-#Svitlodarsk-#Lozove area.

Russian hybrid army base in Makiivka near #Donetsk https://archive.is/7wWsQ @ServiceSsu @rnbo_gov_ua pic.twitter.com/zO0I3mSuxP

#Horlivka 21:46
"Many hits by the residential area at Mykytivka" https://twitter.com/ikanipurati/status/596389411140587520 …

22:20 #Svitlodarsk @GirkinGirkin Howitzers

[OUTLAW 09]

NOTE:

Commander of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation: "Armata" - a breakthrough in world tank manufacturing :)))) pic.twitter.com/UNl49kMpmd

On Paper, Russia's New Armata Tank Outperforms the U.S. M1 Abrams. But Does It Work? http://bit.ly/1JS8py6 pic.twitter.com/gPpBgxLC4U

#Putin's new tank-toy can't even make 4km without breaking down & #Russia has no recovery vehicle capable to tow it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeJzuo2TsfM …

[OUTLAW 09]

The recent Russian release stamped "Secret" admitting that a BUK shot down MH17 was the latest attempt to divert the global attention to it "being the Ukrainian's fault" and it was their BUK that shot it down.

Problem is --the Ukrainian BUK they point to was totally disabled by the Ukrainians as they pulled back and it was still at that site on the day of the shot down.

Video with Ukrainian BUK geolocated at Kramatorsk Airfield especially for
@marcelvandenber
https://youtu.be/Q3MomxNHnUA?t=4m48s … pic.twitter.com/RJPHSay4SE

[OUTLAW 09]

Great example of Russian info war troll at work--

Ukraine@war @DajeyPetros
It seems the Russian( proxie)s are squeezing out every argument they can find to justify another offensive.

Ukraine@war @DajeyPetros
MilitaryCraps also shows Ukrainian air attacks at Donetsk Airport. But again no reports whatsoever on this. pic.twitter.com/kghMneHV82

According to MilitaryCraps there's major "Ukrainian" shelling in Horlivka.
But no reports/videos whatsoever. pic.twitter.com/pkW4MBAI9s

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian shelling and ground attacks started out slow but have picked up greatly over the last few hours---NOT a single statement from leaders of the US, France and Germany on the massive increase in shellings and ground attacks--absolutely nothing and they call this "leadership"?????

Tymchuk: Russian forces are once again on the offensive near Luhansk & Artemivsk (a key city in Donetsk region still controlled by Ukraine).Y

Yesterday evening 14 enemy drones seen in #Mariupol area. https://twitter.com/Mariupol_TV/status/596573823182462976 …

Ukr 28th mech brigade reported 1 KIA and 2 WIA yesterday near #Marinka. http://censor.net.ua/n335392

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian policemen detained 2 “DPR” insurgents. One of them was artillery fire spotter.

So much for being the “friend and protector” of ethnic Russians in theDonbas---
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
“LPR” insurgents requisition livestock from the residents of the Sverdlovsk district, Luhansk region

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
2 Ukrainian servicemen KIA, 26 got wounded in the last 24 hours

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Other hotspots include Sokilnyky, Zolote, Shchastya and Stanytsia Luhanska in the Luhansk sector

Russian troops and her mercenaries are once again firing heavy weapons from residential areas:
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Militants fire from residential districts of Donetsk at Avdiivka, Pisky, Maryinka.

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Hotspots: Shyrokyne cam under artillery and mortar fire. Same weapons & tanks used against UA forces in the outskirts of Horlivka

[OUTLAW 09]

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Militants instigate armed provocations along the entire frontline, which demonstrates their intentions to undermine Minsk II

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-Russian militants shelled UA positions from 120mm mortars 17 times; 10 – from 122 artillery over the last day

Russian troops and equipment are on the move again:
#Shakhtarsk: 5 BMP, MT-LB, 8 Kamaz with RU fighters, towing 4 howitzers and field kitchen, generator on trailers.
https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/596591445668196352 …

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, May 8, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/IZfgpFMknP

Shellings are a tad early today—might be a long evening coming up:
#Donetsk 11:23AM
Kyivsky district: Periodically hearing paired single heavy shots. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/596591179774439424 …

The enemy shelled our troops' positions w 122mm artillery & 82mm mortars @ Bohuslavske, Novohorodske, Krasnyi Pakhar https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/596581454374694912 …

Comment from traveling US journalist:
Back in Eastern #Ukraine. Security on Ukr side much tougher now + serious defensive preparations under way. Several lines it seems.

May i introduce: A worried local farmer with his brand new tractor in #Luhansk:
pic via @LUGANSK_TODAY
pic.twitter.com/TNLcFsSF0g

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian criminals offered freedom for fighting in the Donbas:
Prison in Tyumen.On the sign is written "Commission for Volunteers to the front"(Donbas) pic.twitter.com/dU32lQ5I0t

Military convoy in Roven'ky http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/8-may-military-convoy-in-rovenky … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/frnC0jKTwx via @el_roosevelt

A fresh convoy from #Russia in Rovenky, #Ukraine - source: civilian account, posted yesterday

Hidden Russian military camp exactly on the border to the Ukraine and yet Russia claims to not be involved???? Russian opsec is getting poor again.
Hidden Russian base camp right on the border with #Ukrainehttps://archive.is/0wlmD https://archive.is/FuRR2 pic.twitter.com/0PnYEVU2Wg

#Ukrainian govt forces saw 22 flights of the enemy’s drones http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/05/08/ukrainian-govt-forces-saw-22-flights-of-the-enemys-drones/ …

U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce
And as pro-#Russia separatist violence escalates, monitors have also been endangered - READ: http://1.usa.gov/1KPBurt pic.twitter.com/1IF0v6nMfD

Echoes of Charlie Wilson's War in Ukraine: Pair who helped arm Afghans against Soviets find new cause by @adamentoushttp://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-u-s-backers-use-cold-war-playbook-1431052212 …

[OUTLAW 09]

The recent Russian release stamped "Secret" admitting that a BUK shot down MH17 was the latest attempt to divert the global attention to it "being the Ukrainian's fault" and it was their BUK that shot it down.

Problem is --the Ukrainian BUK they point to was totally disabled by the Ukrainians as they pulled back and it was still at that site on the day of the shot down.

Video with Ukrainian BUK geolocated at Kramatorsk Airfield especially for
@marcelvandenber
https://youtu.be/Q3MomxNHnUA?t=4m48s … pic.twitter.com/RJPHSay4SE

BILD REVEALS #RUSSIA'S NEW FAKE #MH17 REPORT "EVIDENCE"Google-translated version of the story for English speakers
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bild.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2Ff lug-mh-17%2Frussische-beweise-gefaelscht-40861842.bild.html&edit-text= …

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting little known WW2 historical fact:

Many do not remember the price the Ukraine paid under Stalin and Hitler—while the world hears of 6M Jews killed many do not hear of the plight of the Ukrainians—strange is it not??

There is no nation which suffered more during 1932-1945 (Holodomor & WW2) than Ukrainians (15 Million killed) pic.twitter.com/1rAGLWkdju

AND this does not count the deportations after WW2 by Stalin----

[OUTLAW 09]

Another indication that this will not evolve into a "frozen" fight.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/07/a-truce-in-ukraine-forget-about-it.html
War Weary

05.07.158:00 PM ET

A Truce in Ukraine? ‘Forget About It.’

On the front lines, the killing never stopped, and now it’s due to grow worse.

Partial citation only:
MARIUPOL, Ukraine — It was the worst five-day shift for the Donbas Battalion of Ukrainian volunteers in a long time: one soldier was killed, three were wounded. And on Wednesday, the last day of their shift, the troops were saying goodbye to their late friend Vania.

The front between Ukrainian and Russian-backed rebel positions was less than a kilometer wide and lay across a ghost village of shattered buildings called Shyrokyne, currently one of the hottest spots of Ukraine war.


Two things all Ukrainian soldiers and their Western colleagues say they want is unity and peace for Ukraine. But Donbas Commander Gal, whose unit has lost 123 soldiers in the last year, says he clings to firm principals: No matter how poor the battalion was, it did not take money from oligarchs. “I would quit the day Donbas takes money and becomes dependent on some billionaire, who'd later want us to organize or suppress political rallies for him,” said Gal, a former Soviet officer, who spent a decade sailing on a military vessel of the Far East
fleet. The commander was convinced that Ukraine had to free all its territories and the only way to do that was war.

[OUTLAW 09]

Geo-located RU-terrorists military convoy moving through #Stakhanov. 48.537809, 38.616409https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=87&v=QWMeG-v0BSQ … pic.twitter.com/dGysLpjlgD

Today, Russian forces/militia aggressors have already attacked #Shyrokyne 3 times http://t.5.ua/1cuzb1O via @5channel

Khodorkovsky's Open Russia to Release Film on Chechnya's Kadyrov, Dubs Him Putin's 'Vassal' http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-may-8-2015/#8245 … pic.twitter.com/cthF2AuyWP

What #Google can show us about #Russia|n forces near #Ukraine.by @antoine_sans|https://medium.com/@antoine_sans/what-satellite-pictures-can-show-us-about-russian-forces-near-ukraine-the-example-of-millerovo-e26d6559b0ec … pic.twitter.com/eG4X8TZ5Ah

Seems that Russia “forgot the “Ribbentrop-Molotov” 1939 agreement with it’s secret addendum dividing up eastern Europe between Hitler and Stalin:

Ukraine recognizes WWII began in 1939. Russia remembers it beginning in 1941, forgetting its role? pic.twitter.com/ygRE8Q80jV

#onvacation - getting the point about #RussiaInvadedUkraine across at the #BiennaleArte2015
http://on-vacation.info/ pic.twitter.com/i9HDyH1LFw

[OUTLAW 09]

BILD REVEALS #RUSSIA'S NEW FAKE #MH17 REPORT "EVIDENCE"Google-translated version of the story for English speakers
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bild.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2Ff lug-mh-17%2Frussische-beweise-gefaelscht-40861842.bild.html&edit-text= …

Best revelation in this @JulianRoepcke article for @bild is that @googleearth has much better satellites than #Russia
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/flug-mh-17/russische-beweise-gefaelscht-40861842.bild.html...

[OUTLAW 09]

"@usosce:#Russia’s blatant disregard for Minsk agreements& #OSCE principles doen't stop there:http://1.usa.gov/1KPBurt " pic.twitter.com/XxZKr3lMqv

Meduza Project @meduza_en
Reading our website is officially "ideological subversion" in Chechnya. You're welcome. https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/05/08/chechnya-says-khodorkovsky-s-meduza-interview-is-ideological-subversion

Ukraine Is Banning ‘Communist Symbols’ and the Kremlin Is Peeved http://globalvoicesonline.org/2015/05/08/ukraine-communist-symbols-kremlin-censorship/ … @anna_polud explains. pic.twitter.com/ForH5uufOy

Guderian X. @Guderian_Xaba
The NSDC of Ukraine reported 2 KIA and 26 (!) WIA for yesterday.
I've seen reports for 3 KIA: 2 near Horlivka and 1 from Marinka.

Intensive shelling at Stanytsia Luhanska. High pressure gas pipeline damaged. 13 000 cut off. http://lugansk-news.com/pro-russian-terrorists-attacked-stanytsia-luhanska-using-mortars-and-grenade-launchers/ … pic.twitter.com/eK6xCAxlVv

Living As A Teenager In War-Torn Donbas
http://buff.ly/1OZbsCE pic.twitter.com/czyzYiFIPF

[OUTLAW 09]

It was reported this week that Putin personally called Israel and applied direct pressure to keep them from selling drones to the Ukraine.

THEN one of the Russian Israeli purchased drones got shot down over the Ukraine this week---is it not hypocrisy for one nation to do something that it then turns around and attempts to forbid another for doing the same thing?????

This particular drone was never used other than by Russian elite units --definitely not given to the miners and truck driver mercenaries.

Expert: Israeli-made drone shot down over Donbas ‘points to Russian involvement in conflict’http://www.unian.info/politics/1076058-expert-israeli-made-drone-shot-down-over-donbas-points-to-russian-involvement-in-conflict.html … pic.twitter.com/MIpyUgWnPv

[OUTLAW 09]

A really worth listening to –two hour presentation
Canada at NATO ✔ @CanadaNATO
Thoughtful, important Timothy Snyder speech on the role of history in Putin's #Russia https://youtu.be/dkYZfi2o2Zw pic.twitter.com/y8tw3lo8mf

Gloom in #Donetsk on eve of V Day. Grey, empty streets, shuttered shops. Some districts badly damaged by shelling. And it's raining.

Long wait for change: #Russia experiencing fascistization – political scientist (interview) http://belsat.eu/en/articles/long-wait-change-russia-experiencing-fascistization-political-scientist/ … pic.twitter.com/C8g9zZ2ILd

Look who remained seated as #Ukraine's parliament commemorated all the dead in #Donbas: #Russia's Orthodox Church. pic.twitter.com/uWAX0bWBY4
This just proves once again that the #Russia Orthodox Church is neither a Church nor Christian, but just part of #Putin's oppressive regime.

[OUTLAW 09]

Does this White House decision make sense to anyone outside of DC???

War in #Ukraine. US responds by withdrawing 1900 troops, 24 Apaches & 30 Blackhawks from #Germany http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/05/05/shrinking-us-army-forces-europe-fuel-concerns-russian-expansion.html …

Seems the US leadership wants to embolden Putin does it not --but again maybe they assume "soft power" can stop tanks???

THEN from General Sullivan---

Sullivan on US forces in Europe: "we're not fooling anyone – we just don't have enough there" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/europe-requires-more-than-symbolic-defense … pic.twitter.com/O6rCGGSL1k

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/opinion/mikhail-shishkin-how-russians-lost-the-war.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

The Opinion Pages | Op-Ed Contributor

How Russians Lost the War

Partial quote:
ZURICH — My father went to war as a volunteer at age 18. He was a submariner in the Baltic Sea.

When I was small, we lived in a basement on the Arbat, in central Moscow. Hanging on the wall above my bed was a photograph of his Shchuka-class submarine. I was terribly proud that my papa had a submarine, and I was always copying that photograph into my school notebook.

Every year on May 9, Victory Day in Russia — marking the anniversary of the day that news of the German surrender in 1945 reached Moscow — my father would go to the closet and take out his sailor’s uniform, which required regular alteration to accommodate his growing belly, and pin on his medals. It was so important to me to be proud of my father: There had been a war and my papa had won it!

When I grew up, I realized that in 1944 and 1945, my father was sinking ships that were evacuating German civilians and troops from Riga, in Latvia, and Tallinn, in Estonia. Hundreds, if not thousands, of people met their deaths in the waters of the Baltic — for which my father received his medals. It’s been a long time since I was proud of him, but I don’t judge him. It was war.

NOT a well known historical fact--even in Russia.

Once again, the dictatorship is calling on its subjects to defend the homeland, mercilessly exploiting the propaganda of victory in the Great Patriotic War. Russia’s rulers have stolen my people’s oil, stolen their elections, stolen their country. And stolen their victory.
Father, we lost the war.

[OUTLAW 09]

Another form of European hypocrisy that is being exploited by Putin.

Not sure just what military units from Cyprus fought in WW2???

Must be though the billions in Russian black money sitting in his banks that makes Russia look so good to Cyprus.

President of Cyprus arrived in Moscow to take part in celebrations for 70th anniversary of the Victory Day.

[OUTLAW 09]

More Russian info war propaganda:

Apparently 'Gerhard Reyndsen' appears to exist only in Russian news. Hence, fake story pic.twitter.com/oqbK2yuQAK

So, apparently this is the '72 year old Dutchman' asking Putin for Russian citizenship? pic.twitter.com/SFaJ9zzQK2

Putin just dismissed nearly 20 generals http://read.bi/1RkuAPn pic.twitter.com/U0nlbTu3sW

Putin Fires 22 Generals and Lieutenants, Mainly in Emergencies Ministry http://bit.ly/1EV1FuX

Might be due to the massive fires in Siberia and the failure to hold back corruption in the delivery of “humanitarian aid” to eastern Ukraine or maybe it became known they were also fighting in the Ukraine and not delivering “humanitarian aid”.

New Stalin wall memorial in Simferopol.
The guy deported 240K Crimea Tatars, ~100K died.
But who cares, right? pic.twitter.com/1ccNlvR1PV

My latest for Forbes: 70th anniversary of the end of World War II marked by fascism in Russia. http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2015/05/07/70th-anniversary-of-world-war-ii-marked-by-facism-in-russia/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

More Russian info war propaganda:

Apparently 'Gerhard Reyndsen' appears to exist only in Russian news. Hence, fake story pic.twitter.com/oqbK2yuQAK

So, apparently this is the '72 year old Dutchman' asking Putin for Russian citizenship? pic.twitter.com/SFaJ9zzQK2

Putin just dismissed nearly 20 generals http://read.bi/1RkuAPn pic.twitter.com/U0nlbTu3sW

Putin Fires 22 Generals and Lieutenants, Mainly in Emergencies Ministry http://bit.ly/1EV1FuX

Might be due to the massive fires in Siberia and the failure to hold back corruption in the delivery of “humanitarian aid” to eastern Ukraine or maybe it became known they were also fighting in the Ukraine and not delivering “humanitarian aid”.

New Stalin wall memorial in Simferopol.
The guy deported 240K Crimea Tatars, ~100K died.
But who cares, right? pic.twitter.com/1ccNlvR1PV

My latest for Forbes: 70th anniversary of the end of World War II marked by fascism in Russia. http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2015/05/07/70th-anniversary-of-world-war-ii-marked-by-facism-in-russia/ …

More on the "fired generals":

Needless to say, none of lieutenants & generals Putin dismissed today, mainly in Emergencies, are on Magnitsky List http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-may-8-2015/#8249 …

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'Russian Propaganda is Really Working,' Warns Crimean Activist http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russian-propaganda-is-really-working-warns-crimean-activist#.VUzh8BO89EM.twitter …

Another Russian “altered state of reality” statement today—
Russian Embassy, USA @RusEmbUSA
Sergey Kislyak: "Russia to Challenge Attempts to Rewrite WWII History" / Sputnik International http://sputniknews.com/world/20150508/1021858311.html … via @SputnikInt

A great Russian vehicle tracking database driven by open source analysis:

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Silk recently got an upgrade, so our Ukraine Vehicle Tracking database looks great, check it out https://bellingcat-vehicles.silk.co/

Thousands of civilians and militants stream to #Saur_Mohyla, where the invasin army killed many Ukr troops last year. pic.twitter.com/ccUYIXwx42

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Had since the limited shelling reports for today—hoped the Russian mercenaries had taken a day off—but a shelling break is not to be it seems….

AND not a single comment from any western leader--silence seems to be the new Russian foreign policy--and silence just emboldens Putin as he interprets it as approval for his actions.


19:49
#Makiivka hearing firing in #Spartak-#Yasinovataya area https://twitter.com/OldHistoric/status/596718566919053313 …

19:36
Heavy shelling on our positions at #Spartak-#Optyne front lines, in breaks small caliber working, we answer. https://twitter.com/Marchcat_81/status/596715259211165696 …

#Avdiivka 19:54
LOUD https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/596719733187162112 …

#Donetsk 19:26
Kyivsk district: Heavy outgoing singles somewheare from the area of #Vesele. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/596714050358288384 …

#Donetsk 19:39
Heavy shelling in north https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/596716000571043840 …

#Donetsk 19:52
Kyivsky district - serious fighting in the airport area, somewheare near Tochmash https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/596719213005426688 …

#Donetsk 19:26
Kyivsk district: Heavy outgoing singles somewheare from the area of #Vesele. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/596714050358288384 …

Fighting in Marinka, SW Donetsk, Friday morning. Big V Day parade Saturday amid fears of 'provocations' by all parties to the conflict.

Russians prepare fire positions near civil buildings in Donetsk pic.twitter.com/usQRSpUEHt http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/8-may-russians-prepare-fire-positions-near-civil-buildings …
Same old Russian drill of "it is the Ukrainians firing at civilians"-----

[OUTLAW 09]

PHOTO: Air-to-Air refuelling of Russian #Airforce strategic bomber Tu-95MS from tanker IL-78M pic.twitter.com/XBZ0uxZDrN

[OUTLAW 09]

Had since the limited shelling reports for today—hoped the Russian mercenaries had taken a day off—but a shelling break is not to be it seems….

AND not a single comment from any western leader--silence seems to be the new Russian foreign policy--and silence just emboldens Putin as he interprets it as approval for his actions.

19:49
#Makiivka hearing firing in #Spartak-#Yasinovataya area https://twitter.com/OldHistoric/status/596718566919053313 …

19:36
Heavy shelling on our positions at #Spartak-#Optyne front lines, in breaks small caliber working, we answer. https://twitter.com/Marchcat_81/status/596715259211165696 …

#Avdiivka 19:54
LOUD https://twitter.com/rechnikato/status/596719733187162112 …

#Donetsk 19:26
Kyivsk district: Heavy outgoing singles somewheare from the area of #Vesele. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/596714050358288384 …

#Donetsk 19:39
Heavy shelling in north https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/596716000571043840 …

#Donetsk 19:52
Kyivsky district - serious fighting in the airport area, somewheare near Tochmash https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/596719213005426688 …

#Donetsk 19:26
Kyivsk district: Heavy outgoing singles somewheare from the area of #Vesele. https://twitter.com/UrriKara4en/status/596714050358288384 …

Fighting in Marinka, SW Donetsk, Friday morning. Big V Day parade Saturday amid fears of 'provocations' by all parties to the conflict.

Russians prepare fire positions near civil buildings in Donetsk pic.twitter.com/usQRSpUEHt http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/8-may-russians-prepare-fire-positions-near-civil-buildings …
Same old Russian drill of "it is the Ukrainians firing at civilians"-----

Must have been boredom on the part of the Russian mercenaries--after this shelling series--suddenly it seems someone hit the "turn off switch".

Now relatively quiet which at this time yesterday was certainly not the case.

[OUTLAW 09]

Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), based on information received as of 19:30 (Kyiv time), 7 May 2015
KYIV 8 May 2015

Where We Are: OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine What We Do: Conflict prevention and resolution
The SMM monitored the implementation of the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. The SMM, based on its monitoring – which was restricted by third parties and by security considerations* – observed ongoing fighting in and around Donetsk airport and Shyrokyne. The SMM observed the presence of heavy weapons on both sides of the contact line, noting in particular a large concentration of tanks in a “DPR”-controlled area north-east of Mariupol.

* Please see the section at the end of this report entitled “Restrictions on SMM access and freedom of movement” for further information.


Fighting continued to rage in and around the destroyed “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled Donetsk airport, with the SMM during the reporting period recording hundreds of explosions. At the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) observation post at “DPR”-controlled Donetsk Railway Station (8km north-west of Donetsk), the SMM, between 13:25 and 18:00hrs, observed a total of 573 explosions. Members of the JCCC at the observation post told the SMM that there had been two unsuccessful attempts to introduce local ceasefires at 9:00 and 9:30hrs. The SMM observed that the second attempt had lasted over an hour. The SMM also accessed “DPR”-controlled Spartak (8km north of Donetsk) and the airport, noting sporadic low-level incoming mortar rounds.

From an observation point on the eastern outskirts of government-controlled Berdianske (1.5km west of Shyrokyne; 18.5km east of Mariupol), the SMM, from 17:24 to 17:34hrs, heard more than a hundred detonations, assessed to have been incoming fire from Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) located approximately 6km north-north-east of its position[1].

An SMM Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) spotted three tanks in government-controlled territory and 30 tanks in “DPR”-controlled territory, all in or around villages close to the line of contact. Thirteen of these tanks were seen in or around “DPR”-controlled Sontseve (57km south of Donetsk). In addition, two mobile 122mm Grad 9P132 rocket launchers were observed 5km west of “DPR”-controlled Novoazovsk (43km east of Mariupol).

On the western outskirts of “DPR”-controlled Bezimenne (30km east of Mariupol), the SMM observed eight fresh artillery craters. Continuing east – on its way to the “DPR”-controlled international border crossing point on the Russian Federation-Ukraine border (52km east of Mariupol) – the SMM entered “DPR”-controlled Novoazovsk, where it visited the local market, noting that prices were generally double those in Mariupol.

The SMM observed defensive fortifications being constructed on both sides of the contact line in areas around “DPR”-controlled Debaltseve (55km north-west of Donetsk) and government-controlled Luhanske, 16km north-west of Debaltseve.

In government-controlled Artemivsk (66km north of Donetsk), the director of the local Unemployment Office told the SMM that 50 mid-sized companies had left the town since the start of the conflict. Although larger industrial companies have remained, they have had to cut back on production and working hours. Many companies, he said, have had trouble with distribution and acquisition of raw materials, particularly since the fall of Debaltseve, a major transport hub.

In “DPR”-controlled Hrozne (49km north-east of Donetsk), the SMM on 6 May met the family of a 15-year-old boy who had died in hospital a few days previously, according to local residents the SMM had spoken to before. The family told the SMM that the boy, while tending livestock, had stepped on a landmine. They added that others had previously been injured from landmines around the village.

On 6 May, while in an area south of Debaltseve, the SMM observed for the first time a shooting range which covers approximately 16 sq. km and is being used, according to the “DPR” “commander” there, to test anti-tank weapons, mortars, and small fire arms. The SMM observed an ongoing exercise with “DPR” armoured personnel vehicles and armed persons. There was also a 100mm anti-tank weapon at the location as well as three support trucks.

In government-controlled Starobilsk (84km north-west of Luhansk), a Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) commander told the SMM that there had been a marked increase in the number of people seeking passes to cross the contact line. He said currently there were 1,000 applications a day – up from 600 – and that, as of 7 May, 28,000 passes had been issued.

The SMM re-visited one “DPR” and three Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons holding areas, observing that the weapons previously recorded were in situ, and that their locations comply with the respective withdrawal lines. In addition, the SMM visited for the first time another Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons holding area, noting the presence of four 122mm self-propelled artillery pieces. At another two Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons holding areas, personnel there refused to allow the SMM to inspect the facilities, at one site, saying no orders had been given to allow such an inspection, and at the other, saying the commander was unavailable to authorize SMM entry.

Despite claims that the withdrawal of heavy weapons was complete, the SMM observed the following weapons’ movements/presence in areas that were non-compliant with the withdrawal lines: (i) in “DPR”-controlled areas, 31 tanks, one 100mm anti-tank cannon, and two Grad MLRS; and, (ii) in government-controlled territory, nine tanks.

The SMM continued to monitor the situation in Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, Kherson, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Kyiv.

* Restrictions on SMM access and freedom of movement:

The SMM is restrained in fulfilling its monitoring functions by restrictions imposed by third parties and security considerations including the lack of information on whereabouts of landmines.

The security situation in Donbas is fluid and unpredictable and the cease-fire does not hold everywhere.
◾The “DPR” deputy “commandant” in Debaltseve told the SMM that it was not permitted to travel to “DPR”-controlled Lohvynove (8.5km north-west of Debaltseve), saying live-fire exercises were ongoing there
◾At a checkpoint close to government-controlled Lebedynske (16km east-north-east of Mariupol), members of the Dnepro-1 volunteer battalion incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard kept the SMM waiting for an hour.

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Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), based on information received as of 19:30 (Kyiv time), 7 May 2015
KYIV 8 May 2015

Where We Are: OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine What We Do: Conflict prevention and resolution
The SMM monitored the implementation of the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. The SMM, based on its monitoring – which was restricted by third parties and by security considerations* – observed ongoing fighting in and around Donetsk airport and Shyrokyne. The SMM observed the presence of heavy weapons on both sides of the contact line, noting in particular a large concentration of tanks in a “DPR”-controlled area north-east of Mariupol.

* Please see the section at the end of this report entitled “Restrictions on SMM access and freedom of movement” for further information.


U.S. Ambassador Says OSCE Witnessed "Russia's Train and Equip Program in Plain Sight" http://bit.ly/1Jwn0Me

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Russia pulls together an army to the border of Ukraine: new photo evidence
→https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N-Qmd_iCN0U … pic.twitter.com/9PX1e7hnwl

An interesting interview from 1954 that applies strangely to 2015.

Want to know why Russia hates #Bandera and #Ukraine? What is Ukraine Nationalism?
Read CIA declassified.
http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1705143/BANDERA%2C%20STEFAN_0027.pdf …

Russian subversives scattered leaflets in #Lisychansk calling for riots on 9 May. https://twitter.com/lovefiolent/status/596508169578373121 …

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Sudden shelling silence on the entire contact line front--this is what a real "ceasefire" should sound like but has not since Minsk 2 was signed.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sudden shelling silence on the entire contact line front--this is what a real "ceasefire" should sound like but has not since Minsk 2 was signed.

Now that is what a true "ceasefire" sounds like--silence over night.

Seems that both Russia and her mercenaries "have had a come to Minsk 2 moment"????

[OUTLAW 09]

And why is it the current US administration plus Germany and France truly believe they can honesty “trust” Russia in anything??? Their combined actions is in fact simply explained--- all western leaders are “blind” as they just want the problem to go away??? BUT is it not their elected job even if difficult decisions must be made??

Russian complains that the Ukraine is not fulfilling Minsk 2 BUT is Russia? At least the Ukrainians are trying—Russia does nothing but sending in more troops and heavy weapons and lies they are not there.

Is Russia fulfilling its stated goals in assisting in getting chemical weapons out of Syria to avoid air strikes—THAT is the biggest single lie on the part of Russia—was confirmed they were and still are in fact hidden and Russia knew of it.

Russian claims it wants a solution to Syria BUT then blocks everything in the UNSC thus actually supporting the continued mass killing of Syrians. It wants the right to send “humanitarian aid” to the Ukraine BUT blocks such aid to the Syrians.

Russia threatens the use of nuclear especially tactical nukes which basically cancels out MAD.

The list goes on and on and on and on………AND western leaders still think they can deal with Putin??

Shocker. Russia might not have been an honest broker when it agreed with US to destroy Syria's chemical weapons. https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/status/596771211570499584 …

Why #Russia's neighbours all distrust/hate it:
Number of nations oppressed/annexed/attacked by Russia: 23 and growing pic.twitter.com/6GfvTuSWzw

[OUTLAW 09]

Another Russian soldier got lost in #Ukraine https://archive.is/zTnXP pic.twitter.com/lMLI15XE14

Seems that Russia complains when proRussian Ukrainians are gunned down in the street BUT cannot it seems find the murders of Russians—double standards???

Second major critic of Putin—is killed.

#Russia|n actor & #Putin critic found dead in Moscow; Devotchenko found "in pool of blood"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11212072/Russian-actor-and-Putin-critic-found-dead-in-Moscow.html … pic.twitter.com/qyGZPQhPf6

Russian military vehicle maintenance has always been a problem for them ---
On parade in Chita SAM Buk caught on fire http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2015/9-may-on-parade-in-chita-sam-buk-caught-on-fire-sam-buk- … #Russia pic.twitter.com/Di2AspyKVF via @border555

RFE/RL ✔ @RFERL
$7,770,000 are being spent by Russia to prevent rain from spoiling holidays like Victory Day pic.twitter.com/D5z2IM1jZB

Kremlin activists say Obama's the reason world shuns Russia Victory70 parade, so they beamed tanks on White House??https://twitter.com/rferl/status/596843289749237760 …

RFE/RL ✔ @RFERL
'Russian Tanks In Washington' Video Triggers U.S. Secret Service Probehttp://bit.ly/1zKy20i pic.twitter.com/1SR06ZiuBO

Russia complains to WTO over EU anti-dumping policies, WTO sayshttp://www.snsanalytics.com/fGkuy1

Everything Russia does without tanks and missiles in foreign policy realm is misleadingly called #softpower - reread @Joe_Nye

[OUTLAW 09]

Now that is what a true "ceasefire" sounds like--silence over night.

Seems that both Russia and her mercenaries "have had a come to Minsk 2 moment"????

To quick with this comment--shelling has started again although light to moderate whatever that means if you are on the receiving end of the shellings.

#Russian proxies shelled at #Avdyivka,#Pisky & #Opytne.No #VDay in #Ukraine @novostidnua http://novosti.dn.ua/details/250580/ pic.twitter.com/UoivroYV8I

[OUTLAW 09]

VIDEO BUK on fire at May 09 parade in #Chita, #Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r-fD9yvQQI …
@loogunda pic.twitter.com/P3mpYxU1nP
tvrain.ru/teleshow/here_and_now/na_parade_pobedy_v_chite_zagorelsja_buk_video-387067/ … pic.twitter.com/0YcWZ6sjIM

#Russia-backed militants freed 2 American aid workers of @theIRC seized 10 days ago in #Donetsk http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32671002 …

Gun fire, explosions 40km from #Macedonia capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKSJlS--Scc …
Police fights w/ unknown armed group
@MaximEristavi

Today the world faces a deeply corrupt #Russian state.Why? Past&current International Mistakes http://empr.media/opinion/analytics/learning-military-and-intelligence-lessons-past-and-current-international-mistakes … pic.twitter.com/CRxEPV6cGS

Soviet craze in Moscow vs somber procession in Kyiv.
Have never seen Ukraine & Russia differ so much.
Tectonic shift pic.twitter.com/ClHMyfWMgY

[OUTLAW 09]

#Zakharchenko proudly watching his Victory parade in #Donetsk: pic.twitter.com/FVoNbZt4Pv

Cossacks march in #Victory70 parade - WATCH LIVE HERE: http://youtu.be/pPCXiyo-3L8
See the connection between official Cossacks in Russian and Cossack mercenaries in the Ukraine—there is supposedly no connection as they are “helping defend ethnic Russians and thus are “
vacationing”.

Also first year I've seen the Cossacks, who have been prominent in Donetsk and Luhansk, in the WW2 parade w/soldiers in traditional uniform.

Putin: last 10 years has seen move away from post WWII unipolar order. Aha Russia's aiming for bipolar—in both senses pic.twitter.com/pMLhoyWMEt

Russian recon team was eliminated:
#Almazna, #Stakhanov @100007182042214 '5 corpses were found at metallurgic works & 3 more in a woodline'
A rumored Ukrainian C-UW guerrilla op.

Appears that even the Russian mercenaries want their own “fiefdoms” and not a unified New Russia??[unconfirmed] #Alchevsk to separate on #LNR. No proof -'city council' site's down, cache's old http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:oHLod4MaDH8J:www.al.lg.ua/+&cd=1&hl=uk&ct=clnk&gl=ua … pic.twitter.com/Uz3VuPW0fl