Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[carl]

So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

Come back to this statement in 7 days time and 14 days time and lets see how you did. Then in one months time after that.

Can you do that?

[Dayuhan]

Just what now is the US strategy outside of talking and threatening more sanctions?

Probably the same as it's been all along: focus on economic action and keep actions as multilateral as possible. What are their options?

[carl]

Probably the same as it's been all along: focus on economic action and keep actions as multilateral as possible. What are their options?

Money and weapons to the Ukrainians. They have all the men and fighting spirit they need already. An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things. But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles. And with money and weapons to the Ukrainians the potential Russki body count goes way up. That is one thing Vlad hasn't had to deal with yet, lots of actual Russki soldiers getting killed. Nobody cares about the losers they have been using so far. If those guys die their local communities are probably better off for it. But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

[Dayuhan]

An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things. But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles.

Starting WW3 isn't really an issue, since he knows the US is not going to fight Russia over the Ukraine. An announcement might suggest to him that it would be a good idea to speed up his timetable and act decisively before the proposed deliveries can take effect.

The Ukrainians seem to be doing reasonably well on the military side on their own, and of course overt US support would be an open excuse for the Russians to escalate their support.

We've heard a lot of talk about more Russian troops and equipment moving in, but is there any news suggesting a change in the momentum of the fighting?

[OUTLAW 09]

The U.S. doesn't have a strategy outside of sanctions. The traditional tool - military coercion - is ill advised in this situation.



Because bombing IS doesn't invite further escalation from a nuclear armed state that is also capable of spoiling U.S. interests in other parts of the globe. Ukraine is not the exclusive or primary interest of the U.S.



Yes - the Obama administration is not interested in escalating the conflict between the U.S. and Russia to include acts of violence between the two states. Russian acts of war in Ukraine is one thing - inviting military action between the U.S. and Russia is another. This is something I've repeatedly mentioned in this thread and others regarding escalating the conflict.

There are still no viable proposals made to coercivelly reverse Russian gains in Ukraine. Do you have any? The Kiev offensive is probably pretty close to triggering further Russian escalation - we've already seen steady escalation despite sanctions and condemnations. So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

So AP let's see your arguments that go like this;

1. Russia is a nuclear power and therefore "owns" central and eastern Europe to do as they will because we the US have no what business interests to the tune of billions which also drives the US economy and we the US have never claimed that we are not somehow leading the western world nor are member of the Altantic Council/NATO and oh by the way we signed a memorandum protecting the sovereignty of the Ukraine that now when we are called out on we what simply say it is not our problem

2. IS is not a threat to the US ---a threat to the existing borders of four countries in the ME yes they are but it is not up to the US to settle that particular area and if you would follow the IS thread you would fully understand I have been along with two others have often stated we fully never understood Iraq nor QJBR/AQI/ISIL/IS and what bombing trucks in the desert is more important than what...?

3. was it not you yourself that argued yes if we just appease and negotiate and understand the Russia desires to reinstate the Soviet Union this whole thing will simply disappear---you never have seemed to fully understand the ethnic nationalist imperialism that Putin and the elites around him have called into being---some would call it a new form of state fasicism

5. some commenters here state often populations have the right to define their own rule of law and good governance but when a population stands up and states their desire and a neighboring country feels "threatened" by that and decides I will unleash my newest military doctrine to curb their stated ROL/GG that is what something to "appease"

Come on AP "understand" the world you claim to be "seeing".

Also still awaiting your stated "negotiating solutions"---and my response was what---"negotiate what".

And AP what was just pulled by Russia yesterday---again my response negotiate what? there have been five different sets of arguments coming out of Moscow by 21:00 last night on why they pulled their aid stunt.

Again go back and Google the terms invasion and what defines a declaration of war.

Go back a reread the Russian New Generation Warfare and then tell me what Phase of that eight phase doctrine Russia is in currently.

Go back and reread the term political warfare and then try to explain to me you are not seeing that in the current Russian actions.

[OUTLAW 09]

Probably the same as it's been all along: focus on economic action and keep actions as multilateral as possible. What are their options?

There are three options that need to be done.

1.true financial sanctions on Gasprom

2. true financial sanctions on Putin's own wealth estimated in the billions.

3. as fast as possible anti tank missiles to the UA to counter the heavy tanks being used--and along the way thousands of protection vests we have sitting in the warehouses because many of the UA have nothing

Finally share the intel for targeting purposes.

And lastly share the actual intel with the world so that the use of Russian troops inside the Ukraine is no longer being stated by just the Ukrainians which the Russians always claim are lying.

[carl]

applies
Starting WW3 isn't really an issue, since he knows the US is not going to fight Russia over the Ukraine. An announcement might suggest to him that it would be a good idea to speed up his timetable and act decisively before the proposed deliveries can take effect.

The Ukrainians seem to be doing reasonably well on the military side on their own, and of course overt US support would be an open excuse for the Russians to escalate their support.

We've heard a lot of talk about more Russian troops and equipment moving in, but is there any news suggesting a change in the momentum of the fighting?

Or the prospect of Russki bodies he actually cares a little about might cause him to rethink the whole thing.

This is one of those situations I think where what Grant said to the officers of the Army of the Potomac when he took over applies, he told them to stop thinking about what Bobby Lee was going to do to them and start thinking about what they were going to do to him.

(Also what Outlaw said.)

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--here is an example of the country you claim one has to "understand and see things from their perspective and when one does then negotiate".

Or at least that is a summary of what you were implying.

Read this article concerning the Russian truck drivers and mercenaries dismantling Ukrainian military production equipment from Ukrainian companies around the Donbas region.

Are we now back in 1945 when the Soviets dismantled everything the Germans had and shipped it back to the SU as reparations for the war--since when is the Ukraine to supply at no cost anything to the former Soviet Union since 1991?

Last time I checked the Ukrainians did not lose the war.

You really do need to go back and reread the secret agreements signed between Ribbentrop and Stalin on this exact day 23.8.1939 to really understand just why the Russians then the Soviet Union still feels today they can control the central European region and the Baltics---really read the secret agreement on how the Soviets and Germans divided up central Europe.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/23/us-ukraine-crisis-equipment-idUSKBN0GN08V20140823

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---you do realize that the looted factory equipment can from a Ukrainian factory that produces a world class SIGINT line of equipment that the Russian Army needed in order to reach their 2020 military reforms program.

But hey I guess the Putin "wanted payments" for the delivered "humanitarian aid".

And again I state what is the US response and what is the US strategy for central Europe and the Baltics outside of just being verbal?

@RobPulseNews there were reports about disassembling "TOPAZ" that produced Kolchuga SIGINT complex @enigmaleggend @raging545

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--another point to think about--go back and reread all the Russian statements made in the UNSC, statements made by the Russian FM and statements made by Putin himself--- when they voted down "humanitarian aid" for Syria---was meddling in Syrian internal affairs, trying to influence Syria, to used to create a reason to toss out Assad, to used use as a reason to use force against Assad--to even supporting terrorists with the aid.

Now just how is it then possible that Russia states the following today via RIA:

Russia Says Aid Delivery to East Ukraine Legal, Guided by Humanitarian Principles

Russia said Saturday its humanitarian assistance mission to turbulent eastern Ukraine had complied with the International Court of Justice ruling that allowed for the delivery of humanitarian aid to people disregarding their political convictions.

By the way it is the same IJC that ruled against Russia to the tune of 50B USD in the Yukos case ---and then the Russian Duma stated they should not obey and leave the IJC, to virtually the same remarks by the Russian FM and also from Putin.

So Russian argues one way when they want to and another way when they want to so just how does one then "negotiate" with a country that virtually lies with every statement when it suits them?

How does then the West "trust" a country when it speaks with three tongues?

[mirhond]

Money and weapons to the Ukrainians. They have all the men and fighting spirit they need already.

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111


If those guys die their local communities are probably better off for it. But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!


Das ist eher fraglich. Komischerweise war vom Kiewer Stab der sogenannten Anti-Terror-Operation dazu stundenlang nichts zu hören. Erst gegen Abend meldete das Büro von Präsident Petro Poroschenko - und nicht etwa der zuständige Militärstab - die "teilweise" Vernichtung der Kolonne. Bilder davon hat die Regierung in Kiew bis heute nicht vorgelegt, auch die Amerikaner haben offenbar keine. Die besagte Kolonne ist inzwischen zudem von allen ukrainischen Nachrichtenseiten verschwunden.

So bleibt der Eindruck: Ja, den Einmarsch der 23 Fahrzeuge hat es tatsächlich gegeben, den Angriff möglicherweise aber nicht. Denn Kiew reagierte überhaupt erst, nachdem die Meldungen der beiden britischen Korrespondenten die Runde gemacht hatten. Eigentlich sollte es umgekehrt sein: Die eigene Aufklärung stellt das Eindringen der Fahrzeuge fest und berichtet darüber der Öffentlichkeit.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-und-militaerkonvoi-gab-es-einen-angriff-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

[OUTLAW 09]

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111



There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!



http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-und-militaerkonvoi-gab-es-einen-angriff-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

come on comrade mirhond---even you have to now admit the photos, IDs, and Russian social media has fully indicated 38 Russian soldiers of the 76th AB Div were wounded and 60 killed.

figure out how many per IFV and you will come to the total of 100 plus Russians on the convoy.

come on comrade at least get your information sources correct

[OUTLAW 09]

Awaiting the geo tagging of the solid fuel booster for the SS21 that was found in the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/zexep/status/503219072616898560/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that the Russian Army is expanding UAV and cross border artillery/MRL attacks now in the southern Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/GorseFires/status/503246211550547968

#BreakingNews Russian army attacked the border crossing of #Novoazovsk near Mariupol multiple times during the last 2 days w/ Grads+mortars.

This goes a long way in understanding why the Russian Army is now engaging in the south along the Black Sea---there are indicators that the Russians want to expand their border control all the way to Odessa.

Notice the interplay between Russian artillery and mercenary artillery on the town Novoazoysk. from both sides of the border.

DONETSK, August 23 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian militia in the restive Donetsk region told RIA Novosti Saturday they were now fighting their way to the Sea of Azov in the country’s south.

A source in the militia headquarters told our correspondent that self-defense forces had been pounding government troops’ positions near the town of Novoazovsk, a port on the southeastern tip of Ukraine.

If the militias are victorious, forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) will gain access to the Sea of Azov, which is a northern extension of the Black Sea, while also taking control of a local checkpoint and forcing pro-Kiev troops away from the border with Russia.

Earlier reports said that heavy fighting near the Novoazovsk border crossing prompted Russian border guards to pull back inside the country over security concerns.

[OUTLAW 09]

NATO states Russian troops are inside the Ukraine---Moscow says no then this comes across the blogger world:

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/503272204889763840

[carl]

ROFL, It'a a great pity that you don't know Russian or Ukrainian:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6HHIv4JKI

0:30 Wives at home without jobs, we got 1800 Hrn per month, lets enlistment officer who send me into this s#!thole go here for this money.
1:20 One guy lost his sight - state doesn't give a s#!t
1:50 I've earned 5 times more than here doing crap.
et cetera
general expression of the soldier's speech: I'AM FU(KING FED UP WITH THIS FU(KING S#!T!!111

There is no evidence of contract professional soldiers at the scene, in the first place, so your precious Vlad won't bother.

Upd
Breaking news! Mistery of "The lost convoy" revealed!

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-und-militaerkonvoi-gab-es-einen-angriff-a-986481.html

Hilarious! Western journalists are definetly more aware of situation than COIN HQ and Poroshenko himself.

I don't exactly know what your point is but when regular Russian troops come over the border in number (regardless of what they call themselves or are wearing) the fighting spirit and ability of the Ukrainians will be directly measurable by counting the number of full body bags heading back east. And if the Ukrainians were to be given more than adequate numbers of good weapons by us the prospect of that number of body bags being large may dissuade Vlad. Good for the Ukrainians, good for Russian mothers. Everybody is happy.

[AmericanPride]

So AP let's see your arguments that go like this;

Let's measures the accuracy of your characterizations.


1. Russia is a nuclear power

Yes, I have stated this fact a number of times. In contrast, you seem to ignore this fact when advocating for continued escalation in confronting Russia or in building an achiveable policy capable of fulfilling U.S. interests.


and therefore "owns" central and eastern Europe

Incorrect. I have not stated that Russia "owns" eastern Europe. I have, however, stated that Russia, as a state, has material interests that it pursues with rational policy, and that these interests should be taken into account when the U.S. develops policy towards Russia.


because we the US have no what business interests to the tune of billions which also drives the US economy

Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine's territorial integrity is not the exclusive nor most important U.S. interest in the world.


and we the US have never claimed that we are not somehow leading the western world nor are member of the Altantic Council/NATO

Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine is not a NATO member and by implication, the U.S. has no security obligations towards Ukraine.


and oh by the way we signed a memorandum protecting the sovereignty of the Ukraine that now when we are called out on we what simply say it is not our problem

What material obligations does that memorandum impose upon the U.S. in this situation?


2. IS is not a threat to the US

That would be contrary to the opinion of many leading analysts in government and scholarship.


---a threat to the existing borders of four countries in the ME yes they are but it is not up to the US to settle that particular area

Settling that region's problems is one thing. Securing U.S. interests is another. And yes - the U.S. has to actively protect its interests in the region.


was it not you yourself that argued yes if we just appease and negotiate

Incorrect. I never said 'appease'. I said negotiate. It's fully possible to negotiate without 'appeasment'.


and understand the Russia desires to reinstate the Soviet Union this whole thing will simply disappear

Incorrect. I have said repeatedly that it is important to understand the material interests of the Russian state, and what policies they are pursuing to achieve them. Dismissing them out of hand is an error of the first order.


---you never have seemed to fully understand the ethnic nationalist imperialism that Putin and the elites around him have called into being---some would call it a new form of state fasicism

Incorrect. I have in fact pointed out that all of Russia's conflicts since 1991 have involved problems of ethnic nationalism (and normalizing borders and state building). I have also pointed out that Russia historically was and largely remains an imperial state that does not fully conform to the principles of Westphalian nation-statehood.


Also still awaiting your stated "negotiating solutions"---and my response was what---"negotiate what".

This has already been addressed more than once. Repeatedly asking the same question does not constitute an argument - it's actually a failure to undersand the argument.


Again go back and Google the terms invasion and what defines a declaration of war.

How many wars end with negotiated settlments and how many end with the annihilation of one of the belligerents?

You seem fixated on the idea that I am not aware that Russia has been pursuing acts of aggression of Ukraine. I've acknowledged this many pages ago. It's time to move the argument forward. You have left many questions unanswered about the preferable U.S. outcome, what policy options are available to achieve it, and how to compel Russia to terminate the conlfict.

[AmericanPride]

Come back to this statement in 7 days time and 14 days time and lets see how you did. Then in one months time after that.

Can you do that?

Sure - conflicts aren't resolved in one sitting. That the Ukrainian and Russian governments are coming together to initiate talks is a good indicator that both sides prefer a negotiated settlement than continuing with Clausewitz's reciprocal actions until one or the other is destroyed. At some point, they will come to terms, whatever they determine those terms to be.


An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things.

Probably. The problem is that the Russians are in a position where they can continue escalating the conflict with minimal internal costs.


But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles.

No - but he could probably double the amount of Russian soliders operating in Ukraine.


And with money and weapons to the Ukrainians the potential Russki body count goes way up. That is one thing Vlad hasn't had to deal with yet, lots of actual Russki soldiers getting killed.

Interesting you should say that and then also claim that Russian state control of the media distorts the public's perceptions of the actual costs to the state. So how do you reconcile those two points?


But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

Things change for who?

[davidbfpo]

A group of Anglo-American retired diplomats, with experience of serving in the former USSR, have a short article in National Interest and it ends with:
...Western leaders should not shrink from employing all of their available tools to increase the incentive to Moscow to pursue a negotiated settlement.
Link:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/diplomatic-solution-ukraine-11135

[BrentWilliams]

So this on an article on Ukraine in the NY Times.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/03/05/ukraine-maps-v2/74261effa1bf512dddaedc8cfaf886462672a216/0822ukraine-Artboard_1.png

I think that may be largely accurate. If so, Ukraine continues to make progress in re-establishing control in the east.

[carl]

Sure - conflicts aren't resolved in one sitting. That the Ukrainian and Russian governments are coming together to initiate talks is a good indicator that both sides prefer a negotiated settlement than continuing with Clausewitz's reciprocal actions until one or the other is destroyed. At some point, they will come to terms, whatever they determine those terms to be.

Probably. The problem is that the Russians are in a position where they can continue escalating the conflict with minimal internal costs.

No - but he could probably double the amount of Russian soliders operating in Ukraine.

Interesting you should say that and then also claim that Russian state control of the media distorts the public's perceptions of the actual costs to the state. So how do you reconcile those two points?

Things change for who?

A KGB guy initiating talks is not a good indicator that said KGB guy prefers a negotiated settlement, unless that settlement is to discuss surrender terms. But maybe the world has changed....no, it hasn't.

They can escalate only at the cost of committing the regular military and that has a very definite internal cost. There are only so many forces available, not to mention those filled body bags going east.

I don't remember claiming media distorts the Russian public's perceptions of the actual costs to the state. But there are many things I forget. But it does, that is true. But it is true also that they can only hide so much. When those body bags start coming home people are going to start talking amongst each other and amongst each other and the gloriousness of the endeavor may begin to fade. King Vlad may not look so good then

Like I said before, if all you are going to think about is what he can do to you, you won't win. You want to win? It is best to follow Grant's advice.

[OUTLAW 09]

Let's measures the accuracy of your characterizations.



Yes, I have stated this fact a number of times. In contrast, you seem to ignore this fact when advocating for continued escalation in confronting Russia or in building an achiveable policy capable of fulfilling U.S. interests.



Incorrect. I have not stated that Russia "owns" eastern Europe. I have, however, stated that Russia, as a state, has material interests that it pursues with rational policy, and that these interests should be taken into account when the U.S. develops policy towards Russia.



Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine's territorial integrity is not the exclusive nor most important U.S. interest in the world.



Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine is not a NATO member and by implication, the U.S. has no security obligations towards Ukraine.



What material obligations does that memorandum impose upon the U.S. in this situation?



That would be contrary to the opinion of many leading analysts in government and scholarship.



Settling that region's problems is one thing. Securing U.S. interests is another. And yes - the U.S. has to actively protect its interests in the region.



Incorrect. I never said 'appease'. I said negotiate. It's fully possible to negotiate without 'appeasment'.



Incorrect. I have said repeatedly that it is important to understand the material interests of the Russian state, and what policies they are pursuing to achieve them. Dismissing them out of hand is an error of the first order.



Incorrect. I have in fact pointed out that all of Russia's conflicts since 1991 have involved problems of ethnic nationalism (and normalizing borders and state building). I have also pointed out that Russia historically was and largely remains an imperial state that does not fully conform to the principles of Westphalian nation-statehood.



This has already been addressed more than once. Repeatedly asking the same question does not constitute an argument - it's actually a failure to undersand the argument.



How many wars end with negotiated settlments and how many end with the annihilation of one of the belligerents?

You seem fixated on the idea that I am not aware that Russia has been pursuing acts of aggression of Ukraine. I've acknowledged this many pages ago. It's time to move the argument forward. You have left many questions unanswered about the preferable U.S. outcome, what policy options are available to achieve it, and how to compel Russia to terminate the conlfict.

AP---a lot of words but really nothing said.
there is one simple outcome with a few side steps in it.

1. the current Putin doctrine which can in fact be used now by any country if not stopped is as follows---I can on my own and under no international law declare any of my former and current ethnic citizens in another country to be in "distress and discriminated against" therefore I can without again any international law occupy who I want to in the defense of those perceived distressed ethnic citizens of mine

2. reestablish in central Europe the thesis that national borders as they existed in 1994 and recognized even by the former Soviets now Russians exist and sovereign territories are to not be used for proxy wars which actually was the state of Europe until Russian took control of Moldavian and Georgian territory and then the Crimea and now eastern/southern Ukraine

3. reestablish the simple fact that a major nuclear power actually threatens their neighbors--and understand what drives that threat---ethno nationalist imperialism from an unresolved historical breakup caused not by the West but by their own leaders---see this is the difference between us --you tend to blame the West I tend to say Putin is in fact trying to turn back the clock on decisions made by former Soviet Communist leaders who lead the SU until 1994.

Here is the difference between you writing tons of words and myself--I have read and fully understand their eight phase UW strategy called the New Generational Warfare and I fully understand how they use political warfare. You still have not agreed that Russia/Putin is already in phase six of that UW strategy.

And I different from you fully understand the US/NATO/EU have no general strategy against the current Russian UW as being practiced currently inside the Ukraine.

Answer your question?

By the way noticed you have come off the negotiation bit.

[OUTLAW 09]

A group of Anglo-American retired diplomats, with experience of serving in the former USSR, have a short article in National Interest and it ends with:
Link:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/diplomatic-solution-ukraine-11135

David---key sentence is here:

In addition to a lack of good-faith participation by Russia, the negotiations have three structural weaknesses: the exclusion of key actors, the narrow scope of the talks and the illogic of pursuing a cease-fire.

There was some interesting comments being made around the bloggers yesterday to this.

There has been a lack of good faith participation by Russia for the simply reason they assume they will win in the end due to their being currently in a phase six of their New Generation Warfare and the West still outside of sanctions has not responded--coupled with the simple fact that since the Russian military has now fully engaged inside the Ukraine they cannot simply pull back as that would be assumed in their eyes and in the eyes of the hardliners as a "defeat". and sine 1945 they have not suffered a defeat---even AFG was spun to be a win.

A defeat is not in the cards as long as the Russian military has it's say in the decision making.

What is not mentioned in the article is how do you negotiate when in fact there are four groups of decision makers in the game---the military, the security services, the oligarchs, and the Russian mob---Putin is just a meditator among them all who has been great at balancing them and driving them forward. Notice all his former liberal tending advisors are not longer around him--all hardliners driven by a hatred of the West and western values.

Also not mentioned in the article---how does the West negotiate when in fact the core driver ethno nationalist imperialism built on a perceived failure by the last Communist leaders is not being addressed inside Russia itself.

Just as in the Sunni/Shia clash until that single driver is fully addressed and worked out internally Russia will remain aggressive in their belief the West is responsible for everything.

One needs to fully understand what is driving Putin and company and we in the West seem to not to want to address that as many feel nationalism under any flag died in 1994 but 20 years later it seems to be still there.

Noticed also a failure in the article to discuss what I feel is the core underlining fact for Putin and company---the 23.8.1939 secret agreement where Stalin virtually annexed five countries--even in Russia this annexation is still being denied for what it was--a blatant land grab not a merging of brotherly communists who wanted to join the SU.

Notice the countries "given to Stalin" and where Russia is pushing now--therein lies for Putin his current legitimacy as he "feels" he is channeling Stalin these days in the revival of the former SU that he has been driving since 1999 if one really goes back and reads all his interviews over the years--it is there to be read---we Americans and many Europeans simply do not take the time.

He is easy to understand--but one must read as it is all there and open source.

Still surprised how little history seems to be considered in the current thread --it is as if the statement one must learn from history is not fashionable these days?

NOTE: There is something more critical that many are not following--when the authors state about NATO and revitalization and potentially moving new bases in and around say the Baltics and Bulgaria---notice how suddenly Germany states no and references the 4 plus 2 agreements.

Really read those agreements and one will then fully understands just where the German politics with Russia go.

A really small comment that was fully over looked was made by Putin in his Duma speech which is one of the most important articles to read if one wants to understand the current events.

Putin quietly stated ---remember Germany we were the ones who allowed and supported your reunification efforts--which if one is honest and correctly looks at western leader statements to include the US---the west was not all that hep to support German reunification.

He used this comment in conjunction on his explanation of the why the Crimea was to be returned to Russia ie similar to German reunification.

[OUTLAW 09]

BW---the Ukrainians are moving but are finding it more and more difficult as the Russian Army is providing direct fire support via artillery, BM27s and
BM21s plus moving heavy MBTs into the Ukraine.

If the Germans and US had simply provided the Ukrainians enough body armor, night vision, and anti tank weapons this would be far easier for them to counter.

I have been extremely interested in the German Kurdish response--they are willing to provide the Milan to the Kurds--but where is the IS armor and to the Ukrainians money and words are about it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia continues to play the game of no I am not sending in troops, artillery and heavy weapons plus SAMs.

And what is the West's response---silence if you ask me.

And some commenters believe one can currently negotiate with Putin? He only understands the use of force and or the pain of a financial disaster and he is trying to get facts on the ground for hbis Tuesday meeting before his economy collapses and he has to explain that to his population.

Russian MP Ilya Drozdov: "The sooner the bastardly entity called Ukraine is wiped off the map, the better". pic.twitter.com/tgIOUgLcsx

Battalions "#Donbas", "#Dnepr" & #UA in #Ilovaisk say shelled by #Russian army professionals - 3-4 rounds every 30 sec. 3 WIA, 1 KIA.

Tymchuk: Russian BM-27 Uragan self-propelled rocket launchers fired into #Ukraine from #Russia hitting Kuteinykove, near #Ilovaisk, #Donetsk

A significant increase of Russian mercenaries, so called "Kadyrov Chechens" in particular, is indicated in Horlivka

In #Amvrosiyivka #Russia's soldiers without insignia spotted, 250 armored vehicles built up for a possible attack on #Mariupol, #Novoazovsk

Novoazovsk to Mariupol southern corridor; Sea of Azov (Taganrog Bay, Tahanrozka Gulf) subject to increased Russian drone surveillance #intel

There is a report that the Russian army has moved 250+ armored vehicles & artillery pieces into Amvrosiivka #Ukraine http://news.liga.net/news/politics/3032771-v_amvrosievku_voshli_rossiyskie_voyska_istochnik.h tm …

Separatists took the district capital of #Telmanove, #Donetsk region, under control overnight, had been shelling #Novoazovsk border point

#Amvrosiyivka, occupied #Ukraine: 250 #Russia armour and soldiers ammassing for pushing deeper into #Ukraine, poss. to attack #Mariupol

[OUTLAW 09]

Even the Russian are getting nervous:

Rostov on the Don airport ordered to evacuation immediately.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvzFbm3IUAAfTDD.png:large

[OUTLAW 09]

Let's see---another reason that the west should negotiate with the Russians;

Under Articles 13 and 14 of the Geneva Convention that Russia signed in 1949--concerning the treatment of POWs and hostages.

#BREAKING #DONETSK RIGHT NOW.
RUSSIAN INVADERS PARADE HUNDREDS OF UKRAINIAN POW / HOSTAGES.
pic.twitter.com/h2WAK9Ccyc


#Donetsk #Ukraine, #Russia|n proxies forced their captives to walk through "corridor of shame

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCEmZmprIY0 … (Added by Moderator: comes up as private, owner needs to give access)

pic.twitter.com/6PvExGdPPO

[OUTLAW 09]

Believe this is what JMA and others called for at the very beginning of this six months ago.

Operation Atlantic Resolve: Ironhorse BCT prepares military equipment for European deployment:

http://goo.gl/P8I38l

There is absolutely no heavy US armor on the ground in the EU to at least provide the WH another option if needed.

This is being shipped over at a massive cost---why it was never forward based as was the planning for the Reforger exercises is beyond me---maybe the DoD planners should explain why they sent all armored equipment back to the States in the first place--but wait they assumed that Russia had gone "peaceful".

By the way the 1st Cav was always a premier heavy armored division to be used in the defense of Europe- and participated in all Reforger exercises--why now instead of six months ago?

[OUTLAW 09]

Let's see---another reason that the west should negotiate with the Russians;

Under Articles 13 and 14 of the Geneva Convention that Russia signed in 1949--concerning the treatment of POWs and hostages.

#BREAKING #DONETSK RIGHT NOW.
RUSSIAN INVADERS PARADE HUNDREDS OF UKRAINIAN POW / HOSTAGES.
pic.twitter.com/h2WAK9Ccyc


#Donetsk #Ukraine, #Russia|n proxies forced their captives to walk through "corridor of shame

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCEmZmprIY0 … (Added by Moderator: comes up as private, owner needs to give access)

pic.twitter.com/6PvExGdPPO

Appears that all blogger videos have been removed to include the one from the Russian LifeNews.

Was able to find the Russian LifeNews video of the POW march.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRCS_MKl2PA&app=desktop

This was in the UK Telegraph.

Here's @Telegraph's report on POW's marched thro #Donetsk #Ukraine http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11053807/Prisoners-of-war-marched-through-streets-of-Donetsk.html …
#CNN #News #MH17 #Russia pic.twitter.com/TGXkRGsa0Z

Further violation of the Article 13 GC:

In a gesture intended to show that the POW's were dirty, street cleaning vehicles moved behind them. #DNR #Russia http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5N0QU0FA20140824 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Referencing the Russian killed airborne troops that were part of the convoy hit by Ukrainian artillery that Russia claimed did not exist even though the Ukrainians had their military IDs and passports.

#Russia Army declares 6 #Pskov paratroopers reportedly KIA invading #Ukraine "victims of accidental shell detonation during wargame")

The main airborne individual whose ID had been shown on Ukrainian media.

Russian soldier's mother on his Russian social media page: "Dear friends! Leonid's funeral is on Monday at 10 am."

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the aid convoy there seems to be more social media reporting of new Russian weapons not seen outside Russia.

http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/2eewip/rf_special_forces_evgeni_sorokin_with_machinegun/

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/503566555310215168/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

There was some interest here in the Russian Special Forces---this was just released by RT and depicts the requirements to join and their training.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBuJcAKKeXw

RF SF in the Ukraine--photo not geo tagged.

http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/2eewip/rf_special_forces_evgeni_sorokin_with_machinegun/

[OUTLAW 09]

Let's measures the accuracy of your characterizations.



Yes, I have stated this fact a number of times. In contrast, you seem to ignore this fact when advocating for continued escalation in confronting Russia or in building an achiveable policy capable of fulfilling U.S. interests.



Incorrect. I have not stated that Russia "owns" eastern Europe. I have, however, stated that Russia, as a state, has material interests that it pursues with rational policy, and that these interests should be taken into account when the U.S. develops policy towards Russia.



Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine's territorial integrity is not the exclusive nor most important U.S. interest in the world.



Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine is not a NATO member and by implication, the U.S. has no security obligations towards Ukraine.



What material obligations does that memorandum impose upon the U.S. in this situation?



That would be contrary to the opinion of many leading analysts in government and scholarship.



Settling that region's problems is one thing. Securing U.S. interests is another. And yes - the U.S. has to actively protect its interests in the region.



Incorrect. I never said 'appease'. I said negotiate. It's fully possible to negotiate without 'appeasment'.



Incorrect. I have said repeatedly that it is important to understand the material interests of the Russian state, and what policies they are pursuing to achieve them. Dismissing them out of hand is an error of the first order.



Incorrect. I have in fact pointed out that all of Russia's conflicts since 1991 have involved problems of ethnic nationalism (and normalizing borders and state building). I have also pointed out that Russia historically was and largely remains an imperial state that does not fully conform to the principles of Westphalian nation-statehood.



This has already been addressed more than once. Repeatedly asking the same question does not constitute an argument - it's actually a failure to undersand the argument.



How many wars end with negotiated settlments and how many end with the annihilation of one of the belligerents?

You seem fixated on the idea that I am not aware that Russia has been pursuing acts of aggression of Ukraine. I've acknowledged this many pages ago. It's time to move the argument forward. You have left many questions unanswered about the preferable U.S. outcome, what policy options are available to achieve it, and how to compel Russia to terminate the conlfict.

AP--you talk about negotiations as the way forward---this is from the close advisor to Putin and part of the core hardliners that Putin is being advised by since he threw out all of his previous liberal advisors.

And what negotiations will work with him?

MT @leonidragozin In VK post, #Kremlin ideologist Alexander #Dugin calls 4 "genocide" of #Ukraine "race of bastards" pic.twitter.com/SHNDcBpLtU

[OUTLAW 09]

BW---the Ukrainians are moving but are finding it more and more difficult as the Russian Army is providing direct fire support via artillery, BM27s and
BM21s plus moving heavy MBTs into the Ukraine.

If the Germans and US had simply provided the Ukrainians enough body armor, night vision, and anti tank weapons this would be far easier for them to counter.

I have been extremely interested in the German Kurdish response--they are willing to provide the Milan to the Kurds--but where is the IS armor and to the Ukrainians money and words are about it.

BW--there has been for about three days constant blogging about Russian troops crossing over in large numbers also from the southern border area/

Yes the Ukrainians are killing large numbers but more seem to be coming over.

Then this came up this evening from a site that I have been watching and attempts to present a balance.

Maybe this is why the US is not saying a single word from the intel side.

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/08/ukraine-is-pushed-back-by-open-russian.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the aid convoy there has been an increase in new Russian weapons seen in the Ukraine.

Here are two more that have never been seen outside of the RF and were rumored to be in development---seems they are out of the development stage.

#Russia may be testing in #Ukraine new guided missiles Pantsir and Hermes.

https://twitter.com/RutheniaRus/status/503645290239627264/photo/1

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/300878.html

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that the Russian Abne Division that had the alleged "training accident" which killed personnel was visited this week by the Russian Defense Minister. This was the unit that had the shelled convoy.

Russia denies it's at war but it's DM awarded a Russian unit fighting in #Ukraine a medal Red Banner given for courage in combat--but the Russian press has stated a number of times it was a "training accident"?

The former Soviet Army simply cannot get out of their old habits with medals.

http://pln-pskov.ru/news/178748.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems now that they Russian FM who claims the Ukraine is constantly violating international law reference civilians cannot somehow remember that the then Soviet Union now Russia signed the GC in 1949 and the "parade" yesterday in fact violated Articles 13/14 of the GC document they signed.

Lavrov on hideous Donetsk prisoner parade: I saw nothing humiliating:https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/503826046920429568/photo/1

So I guess the Russian FM does not seem to think throwing eggs, throwing empty water bottles at cuffed POWs and shouting "fascists" is "nothing humiliating" when the Ukraine itself sent back quietly Russian dead and still have not displayed captured/wounded Russian military personnel who they found in a local hospital they captured.

[OUTLAW 09]

There is an article over on the SWJ side that is about Peace and War and the Space In Between which goes to the heart of the Ukrainian events and in fact reflects exactly why the US appears at this point in time to have absolutely no strategy towards Russian aggression carried out under their New Generation Warfare which is supporting their political war with the Ukraine.

Highlighted is Dave Maxwell's comments:

And because they (decision makers) cannot match American military power directly, it is in this space — battlegrounds of perception, coercion, mass atrocity — that America’s enemies and adversaries prefer to operate. END QUOTE

Thinking tactically is not limited to the military. We need to be able to achieve balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means. That is the art of "doing strategy." This provides a good description why we need to think strategically vice tactically in national security decision making.

QUOTE Finally, this tactical mindset provides an explanation for the apparent failure to appreciate how to leverage military force for strategic ends. This view leads to an under-appreciation of its broader deterrent value and the role that military forces can play in shaping security environments and consolidating tactical gains to ensure progress toward policy goals. Military forces – strong land forces especially – provide reassurance and tangible presence of American commitment. One of the key insights of the recently released National Defense Panel report was to make the important point that powerful U.S. military capabilities can shape events and provide options that may, by their mere existence, deter others from taking actions that require a U.S. military response. They help to establish the conditions to allow U.S. diplomats and policymakers to engage in that space between peace and war. END QUOTE

We currently see this in the Ukraine because;

1. there is no longer a strong US military presence in Europe that allows for leveraging a response to Russia--and yes air power does not equate to land power---the lack of this "military" projection power lends itself to what?

2. when a red line is set ie strong statements made about "unauthorized aid shipments" crossing a border when one country has not approved them---and then there is just a press conference statement and then the Russians make statements they are sending a second shipment which in fact is a not to subtle statement the Ukraine is ours to do what we want --- the US statements then lends itself to what?

3. when the US intelligence community states they has solid missile tracks fired against MH17 and that Russia troops and artillery have crossed into the Ukraine and then zero information to back up those statements is released--lends itself to what?

To the Russians US actions actually imply acceptance of the Russian position--ie the Crimea is part and parcel of Russia as is eastern/southern Ukraine as is the Baltics and Poland.

But when the current administration seems to think soft power ie words and sanctions will suffice to reign in a rouge actor---then along the way they seemed to have forgotten the use of military power to project one's views/voice in a crisis.

Or worse ---there is no will to even get engaged as the stated end appears to be to difficult to achieve.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian Army has taken Russian military prisoners from the 98th Division, 331st VDV Company.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/503890326160154624

Per preliminary info 8 KIA in #Russian army 98th Guards Div Airborne 331st VDV Cmpny. Survivors came to #Ukraine CP, surrendered. Didn't know they're in UKR.

If you miss a relative from 98th Guards Airborne Division of the Russian armed forces. Ask for the Ukrainian A3OB battalion.
pic.twitter.com/iMew2IH47c


Does anyone here at SWJ have an explanation just why it is the Ukrainian Army, European bloggers and a pair of open source set of sites that seems to be better informed than all of the European leaders ie the Germans and the US CIA/NSA/DIA---all together?

The US IC "claimed" to have missile tracks on MH17 and "claimed" to know Russian military personnel and equipment are in the Ukraine but then nothing is released "allowing" then the Russians to state---"see even the Americans are lying" and "spreading dis-information" about Russian intentions.

So for all the billions spent on the US IC---it has been for exactly what?

Two days ago the blogger world picked up this tactical shift and yet Merkel talks about a "ceasefire" in Kiev and nothing comes out of DC/Obama except for two press comments about the "aid shipment". It is almost like the current administration cannot walk and chew gum literally at the same time.

Ukraine accuses Russian forces of opening new front in separatist war in southeast: http://reut.rs/1okYOQq
pic.twitter.com/5ejtXPW1wf

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that the Russian Abne Division that had the alleged "training accident" which killed personnel was visited this week by the Russian Defense Minister. This was the unit that had the shelled convoy.

Russia denies it's at war but it's DM awarded a Russian unit fighting in #Ukraine a medal Red Banner given for courage in combat--but the Russian press has stated a number of times it was a "training accident"?

The former Soviet Army simply cannot get out of their old habits with medals.

http://pln-pskov.ru/news/178748.html …

Another Russian combat medal/honors handed out by this time Putin--this award is/was never given to a military unit in peacetime in Russia or the former Soviet Union.

#putin has awarded Suvorov medal to troopers of Chernigov brigade, which is given only for a military merit and never awarded in peace time.

[OUTLAW 09]

Actual crossing now of Russian troops in the Mariupol area or "regrouped mercenaries" coming back in from Russia--reported heavily Saturday and Sunday by bloggers---note nothing from the Germans and or the US?

Panic Reported In Mariupol After Reports of Nearby Russian Invasion http://bit.ly/1spfIRu

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-forces-cross-border-in-tanks-armored-vehicles/2014/08/25/8cb7d1d4-2c3f-11e4-994d-202962a9150c_story.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is still denying the existence of Russian military in the Ukraine and yet their own bloggers are in fact compiling lists taken from Russian social media of those killed in the Ukraine.

Russ blogger compiled lists of soc media profiles of RU soldiers fighting and killed in Ukraine http://kado4nikov.livejournal.com/18806.html http://kado4nikov.livejournal.com/18424.html

Seems as if the Russian social media is driving this to a degree not seen before in Russia---as fast as Russian soldiers are identified their social media pages are being deleted and the families are told the burials are to be kept secret---the Kursk all over again.

A Facebook group has been formed entitled “Cargo 200 from Ukraine to Russia” on which people try to gather all information available about contracted and conscripted soldiers killed in Ukraine. The starkest message reads: “Russian: Is your son, brother, friend serving in the army, especially the paratroopers. CONTACT HIM URGENTLY! MAYBE HE’S ALREADY BEEN KILLED? After all the Russian army is so very definitely “not fighting” on Ukrainian territory!.”

[OUTLAW 09]

There is an article over on the SWJ side that is about Peace and War and the Space In Between which goes to the heart of the Ukrainian events and in fact reflects exactly why the US appears at this point in time to have absolutely no strategy towards Russian aggression carried out under their New Generation Warfare which is supporting their political war with the Ukraine.

Highlighted is Dave Maxwell's comments:

And because they (decision makers) cannot match American military power directly, it is in this space — battlegrounds of perception, coercion, mass atrocity — that America’s enemies and adversaries prefer to operate. END QUOTE

Thinking tactically is not limited to the military. We need to be able to achieve balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means. That is the art of "doing strategy." This provides a good description why we need to think strategically vice tactically in national security decision making.

QUOTE Finally, this tactical mindset provides an explanation for the apparent failure to appreciate how to leverage military force for strategic ends. This view leads to an under-appreciation of its broader deterrent value and the role that military forces can play in shaping security environments and consolidating tactical gains to ensure progress toward policy goals. Military forces – strong land forces especially – provide reassurance and tangible presence of American commitment. One of the key insights of the recently released National Defense Panel report was to make the important point that powerful U.S. military capabilities can shape events and provide options that may, by their mere existence, deter others from taking actions that require a U.S. military response. They help to establish the conditions to allow U.S. diplomats and policymakers to engage in that space between peace and war. END QUOTE

We currently see this in the Ukraine because;

1. there is no longer a strong US military presence in Europe that allows for leveraging a response to Russia--and yes air power does not equate to land power---the lack of this "military" projection power lends itself to what?

2. when a red line is set ie strong statements made about "unauthorized aid shipments" crossing a border when one country has not approved them---and then there is just a press conference statement and then the Russians make statements they are sending a second shipment which in fact is a not to subtle statement the Ukraine is ours to do what we want --- the US statements then lends itself to what?

3. when the US intelligence community states they has solid missile tracks fired against MH17 and that Russia troops and artillery have crossed into the Ukraine and then zero information to back up those statements is released--lends itself to what?

To the Russians US actions actually imply acceptance of the Russian position--ie the Crimea is part and parcel of Russia as is eastern/southern Ukraine as is the Baltics and Poland.

But when the current administration seems to think soft power ie words and sanctions will suffice to reign in a rouge actor---then along the way they seemed to have forgotten the use of military power to project one's views/voice in a crisis.

Or worse ---there is no will to even get engaged as the stated end appears to be to difficult to achieve.

It seems that the WSJ agrees with me:

Their article today under the title is really worth a read.

Obama's Bitter Trans-Atlantic Legacy

Eastern and Central Europe believes in U.S. leadership, but Washington doesn't.

What is interesting is that there has been virtually no Obama comments on the Russia Ukraine clash since the IS marched into Iraq.

And Merkel is proposing exactly what Putin wanted from the Ukraine in the first place.
1. no EU
2. no NATO
3. federation and decentralizing
4. Ukraine membership in the EEC

So we have now Merkel ie Germany and France supporting Putin, we have the US seemingly refusing to display to the world exactly what they see the Russians doing to avoid calling Russia out and we have both the UK/US completely ignoring the simple fact they signed the Ukraine Budapest Memorandum and took nuclear weapons away from the Ukraine and now leave the Ukraine on their own.

Today we have the Baltics, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria asking for missile protection from Russia and NATO bases on their territory---the rest of NATO's response---no----so really is there an Article 5 left in NATO?

So again what was the US strategy?

Some commenters here should go back and reread the comments by JMA to this thread to really understand where he was coming from.

[OUTLAW 09]

The Russian version of "contract soldiers":

Interesting that US media does not pick this up.

A journal in Dagestan called chernovik.net had an article by Ruslan Magomedov dated 22 August titled "Cargo 200," which is the Russian military term for the bodies of those killed in battle. It said that "dozens" of Dagestanis had died in battle who were on contract with the RF Defense Ministry.

How did Dagestani soldiers end up in Ukraine? Their relatives said the officers would make offers to contract soldiers to go to the front:

The offer would be of the voluntary-coercive kind: they are volunteers, but they go, fearing that the army will tear up their contract if they don't. The travel to Ukraine is offered exclusively to contract soldiers, but according to Chernovik's sources, there can also be draftees among them (the latter get contracts signed after a half year of draft service, thus circumventing the formalities).

"Those who refuse may, for example, be brought out on the parade ground and in front of the line-up be accused of cowardice and so on. That is, they put moral pressure on them," a contract soldier who preferred to remain anonymous told Chernovik. Another source claimed that the contract soldiers who were killed in Ukraine are listed in documents as having been killed during training or as having been dismissed, after the fact. So that way it doesn't show up as a loss in battle, and the relatives cannot count on payments from the government or insurance companies.

Sources told Chernovik that the soldiers are on a kind of "shuttle". They repeatedly go in and out of Ukraine. The sources didn't provide names, but said that contract soldiers from the following towns had been killed in artillery fire from the Ukrainian ATO [anti-terrorist operation]: Kazanishche, Atlanaul (a village in Buynaksk District) and Shagad (Khasavyurt District). One other contract soldier from Buynaksk is missing. There are also unconfirmed reports of "Cargo 200" in Kizilyurt, Belidzhi (Derbent District) and Aksay (Khasavyurt District).

Chernovik says that two tank regiments have headed to the Russian-Ukrainian border, and there is also a report of the deployment of Navy contractors from the Caspian Sea.

[kaur]

Ukrainian video with arrested Russian paratrooper from 98th paratrooper division. Soldier explainst that 16th August started the process. It was told that unit ist going going to Rostov. 17th was made echelon and they drove to Rostov. Close to Rostov unit established camp. Drivers painted white circles and hided numbers of vechicles. Was told that exercise begins with opfor. Then "exercise" started. His vechicle was stopped buy incoming fire. Vechicle was broken. Then he understood that this is not exercise. His whole company moved to Ukraine territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR4viAfweHw#t=74

This is his squad and jailed guys are circled http://avmalgin.livejournal.com/4830578.html

Russian MoD officer explains that those Russian paratroopers were partolling near border and by accident entered Ukraine. He added that this has happened with Ukrainian troops several times and Russian side has not made scandal. Soldier claimed at the same time that they were told that there will be two-sided exercise and why they had to paint the vechicles numbers. Who is right?

http://polit.ru/news/2014/08/26/accidentally/

Two paratroopers' funerals in Pskov 25.08.2014.

http://irek-murtazin.livejournal.com/1261661.html

Those paratroopers are not among previously posted list of Pskov 76th division soldiers. Who are they and what happened to them?

http://67viktor.livejournal.com/57522.html

[OUTLAW 09]

And the Russians just keep on rolling along ---here is another set of reports that just keep flowing with no a single comment from the EU/Germany/US.

Was not the US recent comments---it is not an "invasion"---just an "incursion"---if one is in fact in the UA and currently fighting on the border with Russian troops/tanks---not so sure they would call it an "incursion".

So in the current US political leadership when do they shift from the word "incursion" and finally use the real word "invasion"--at what amount of T72s/BTR80s/BM21/27s, artillery, and captured Russian troops does it start to become an "invasion"?

I keep asking here just where is the US strategy in handling the new Russian UW doctrine New Generation Warfare and how does the US counter political warfare coming from Russia over the next couple of years?

BREAKING: #Ukraine Nat Sec Council spox: 2 Russian Mi-24 attacked Ukrainian border guards w unguided rockets: 4 KIA+3 WIA. Unclear location

Btln "#Kirvbas" informs they seized a T-72 but no one can't drive. Destroyed 7 #Russian army BMDs.So much of RUS army via @lennutrajektoor

Invadors that broke thru border y'day set up positions near #Novoazovsk, shell the city, hospital is currently on fire - #NSC presser |EMPR

SAW IT COMING Russia calls Journalists who saw &reported Russia armored convoy enter Ukraine as LIARS #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/4gGzEkTDzz

#Breaking Here they are! Russian army forces without insignia, ready to move into Ukraine. A hundred T-72 and BTR-80
http://youtu.be/RNCP8qvoYtU

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/64975.html … #Pskov, #Russia: End of the road for some #Russian paratroopers touring #Ukraine.'by accident' https://twitter.com/Ukroblogger/status/504230119775272960/photo/1

Russia admits its soldiers have been caught in Ukraine http://gu.com/p/4x2n9/tw via @guardian

Russian T-72s spotted and geolocated in Torez http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/08/russian-t-72s-spotted-in-torez.html … https://twitter.com/djp3tros/status/504161917343399936/photo/1

Seems Russian artillery is also shelling Ukraine by "accident" @MFA_Russia. NSDC: Russia continues to shell Novoazovs'k.

[kaur]

Novaya article from Pskov. Journalist managed to find father of fallen soldier at the cemetery. He is serving in mayor rank in Pskov ...

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/64975.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/64975.html%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D799

This article says that troopers from 18th brigade from Checnya were also killed in Ukraine in the first half of August.

http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2014/08/26/6190369.shtml

[Firn]

It was all quite obvious weeks ago if not months. Sadly confirmation after confirmation comes hammering home the point that Putin's Russia is waging war against Ukraine. A while ago I only started use (Pro)Russian forces to describe those doing the fighting, kidnapping, murdering, torturing and dying against the Ukrainians. While one shouldn't discount the armed locals, brainwashed by the Kremlin's propaganda, under Russian command and control the 'purely' Russian share in that invasion seems to be ever increasing.

Of course the fiction of two seperate entities, the Russian state and the so-called seperatists in the Donbass, is also an useful approach for many NATO members. Putin really had to work hard to get those still quite mild Western sanctions...

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING On Aug 24 in #Sverdlovsk #Luhansk region #Russian army marines fr #Sevastopol passed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL-yofb3HzU …

pic.twitter.com/szyjVirbFT

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant

A rather excellent and thorough bit of reporting on the battle near Novoazovsky from Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/26/us-ukraine-crisis-novoazovsk-exclusive-idUSKBN0GQ19U20140826?utm_source=twitter …

Ukraine is being shelled from Russia's territory, @Reuters reporter says
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/26/us-ukraine-crisis-novoazovsk-exclusive-idUSKBN0GQ19U20140826?utm_source=twitter …

30 Russian tanks invade Ukraine while negotiations take place in Minsk. A complete waste of time? http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/08/26/7035864/ …

Russian troops that invaded at #Novoazovsk fortified positions near Markino/Shcherbakovo/Kholodne cont. bombardment http://goo.gl/AzE0VK

Russian Armored Convoy Geolocated In Ukraine Headed Toward Lugansk - Complete With T-72 Tanks via @MillerMENA http://liveuamap.com/e/2014/26-august-russian-armored-convoy-geolocated-in-ukraine-headed

In Ukraine, an armored column appears out of nowhere. A Reuters exclusive: http://reut.rs/1vLQpvo pic.twitter.com/1SxW7dFRE6

Reuters report confirming #Ukraine claims of #Russia opening 'second front' in Azov sea area http://reut.rs/1vLQpvo pic.twitter.com/7J796Cnqcr

[OUTLAW 09]

While everyone is looking at Minsk there was evidently a joint Russian US team negotiating in Finland supposedly a 24 step plan for the Ukraine---notice through no EU nor Ukrainian presence at all as if this is a Russia US thing instead of a Russia Europe thing.

If one looks at the final 24 steps roughly 95% of what Russia originally wanted in their statements on both the Crimea and eastern/southern Ukraine was in fact achieved and presented as part of the plan.

By the way one still sees no attempt of the UK and the US to get back to their signed Budapest Memorandum.

This is the third trail balloon attempt to see what hits the wall and what then stays on the wall from the Russian side.

1. there was the money for land option
2. there then was the land for land---actually offered by a previous Atlantic article
3. now this plan

http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/a-24-step-plan-to-resolve-the-ukraine-crisis/379121/

Notice when reading the proposed 24 steps there is no discussion of just how the Russian invasion forces currently inside the Ukraine are to be handled--ie fully disarmed, fully under OSCE control counted on their outbound convoy's -----just what is mechanism---not even mentioned.

[OUTLAW 09]

Susan Rice ✔ @AmbassadorRice

Russia’s military incursions into Ukraine- artillery, air def systems, dozens of tanks & military personnel–represent significant escalation



Susan Rice ✔ @AmbassadorRice

Repeated Russian incursions into Ukraine unacceptable. Dangerous and inflammatory

[OUTLAW 09]

ConflictReporter @MiddleEast_BRK

#BREAKING Reuters confirms "little green men" -Russian soldiers- take over villages in Donetsk
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0GQ1X520140826?irpc=932 … pic.twitter.com/WReTiaERl8


"Unidentified, heavily-armed strangers with Russian accents have appeared in an eastern Ukrainian village" http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/26/us-ukraine-crisis-fighters-idUSKBN0GQ1X520140826?irpc=932 …


Video Shows Column of Russian Vehicles, Manned By Chechen Fighters,On Ukraine's Border http://youtu.be/RNCP8qvoYtU

Little #Russia green men in #Donetsk region, note how masking insignia in same way as reported by POW:s.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0GQ1X520140826?irpc=932 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Out of the Ukrainian events---social media seems to work better for getting the truth out than all western leaders seem to not want to do.


Alexander Morozenko @ukrainik

the image that forced RU MoD "lost" statement
RU army POW captured by UA authorities
pic sent to RU w supporting doc

pic.twitter.com/e8eyD219rR

Video of Russian journalists attacked at the cemetery where paratroopers believed to be killed in Ukraine are buried http://tvrain.ru/articles/video_napadenija_na_zhurnalistov_na_kladbische_pod _pskovom-374589/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Can anyone on the thread explain to me just why Putin/Russian issued a whole series of banned food products when there is this backdoor that five tanks can drive through---so was it just for public Russian consummation or was he simply going through the motions of exactly what?

From the Russian News Agency RIA:

Embargoed EU Goods Actively Re-Imported to Russia via Belarus – Putin

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140826/192371567/Embargoed-EU-Goods-Actively-Re-Imported-To-Russia-Via-Belarus-.html … prin @ria_novosti

[OUTLAW 09]

The fighting gets heavier:

The capture of 4 MSTA-S guns is the best I've heard since the capture of Uragans, Tyulpans, Pions. Those are very heavy guns.

Battles ARE continuing between the Russian and Ukrainian army near the coast of the Azov Sea w/ Ukr air force claiming it destroyed 10 BMP.

[Bill Moore]

What do you guys think about this? Yawn? Conflict is increasingly internationalized, thus harder to end?

http://www.trust.org/item/20140808164938-nxbq1/?source=jtInDepth

Spanish civil war nostalgics join fight alongside Ukrainian rebels


* Two young men from Spain fighting with pro-Russians

* Russians, Chechens, Ossetians, Serbs fight in rebel ranks

* Russia says Europeans fighting in pro-Kiev units



The ribbon's red, yellow and purple are the colours of the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War, a conflict in the 1930s where thousands of foreigners joined the leftists against right-wing foes who eventually prevailed.

Angel said he wanted to return the favour after the Soviet Union, under Stalin, supported the Republican side in Spain.

If people weren't dying this would be funny, but this kid is creating his own reality/myth. Kids joining the jihad movement in Syria after reading Islam for Dummies is another example, which makes you wonder if the real issue is young men aren't finding meaning in their day to day life and will create whatever myth they need to do to find a cause that is bigger than they are? A cause that gives their life meaning? If true, that may explain why are counter radicalization efforts are failing, we're trying to counter the message, instead we should provide them a means to find value in their lives.

[OUTLAW 09]

What do you guys think about this? Yawn? Conflict is increasingly internationalized, thus harder to end?

http://www.trust.org/item/20140808164938-nxbq1/?source=jtInDepth

Spanish civil war nostalgics join fight alongside Ukrainian rebels






If people weren't dying this would be funny, but this kid is creating his own reality/myth. Kids joining the jihad movement in Syria after reading Islam for Dummies is another example, which makes you wonder if the real issue is young men aren't finding meaning in their day to day life and will create whatever myth they need to do to find a cause that is bigger than they are? A cause that gives their life meaning? If true, that may explain why are counter radicalization efforts are failing, we're trying to counter the message, instead we should provide them a means to find value in their lives.

Bill---as always some interesting thoughts--

1. the fighting has become internationalized---very much!---yesterday was a blog of a French camera team accompanying two French men who joined the Russian separatists and who crossed into the southern front.

This has in fact become similar to the Spanish civil war---ie communists vs other than non communists.

Why communist---just check the flags and slogans from the proRussian Ukrainians and the separatists and the info war messaging ie against "fascists"

But the heart of the matter still goes to what I have called since the beginning---this is a Putin Doctrine--underlined the word doctrine. And by the way often from commenters here rejected.

Also rejected by a number of commenters here is the simple fact that the fighting in the Ukraine and the take over of the Crimea is part and parcel of the new Russian military doctrine New Generation Warfare that supports the political warfare ie the Putin Doctrine---that is so clear as clear water but for some reason many seem to not see the connections.

The Putin doctrine -- the belief that Russia has the right to act to protect Russian-speakers, no matter where they are -- puts NATO nations such as Estonia, Latvia, and Poland at risk. Each of these countries has citizens who speak Russian; the Kremlin has suggested it would penetrate those borders if Moscow thought those populations were threatened.

NOTE: Check the secret addendum to the Molotov/Ribbentrop 23.8.1939 agreements and one will notice just what countries were "given" to Stalin and just where Russia is now focusing this new doctrine.

Many commenters here need to fully reread a number of times the Duma speech from Putin--he spells it all out and clearly defines his thinking.

And by the way the concept that many here wrote about---negotiate--does not work against this new Russian doctrine---Putin only understands force or the projection of force--just look at his final press comments yesterday in Minsk--hey it is the others to figure out---only when pressed by the social media blogs and their digging and blogging did Russia finally admit their troops were captured, but again by "accidently" being in the wrong place?

Secondly, right now there is no effective counter measures outside sanctions due to having virtually no US combat power on the ground in Europe---in the old days if a US president wanted to signal something to the Soviets all it took was a ramp up of the alert status and it would get their attention---the raising of the alert status for a transportation or logistics unit does not get anyone's attention nor do jet fighters in the current environment of S300s.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/08/26/how_nato_could_confront_the_putin_doctrine_petro_p oroshenko_belarus

Your comments on radicalization are spot one--but if we look at how Russian has "radicalized" both the Crimea and the Ukraine we need to fully understand just how messaging works and how to first counter the messaging then your valid comments on values---right now there is a large number of Muslim men and even women living and working or not working in the European countries looking for some meaning in their lives that are not found inside the European societies who basically still are racist meaning if not true French, German, Dutch, Slovenian, Polish then you are an outsider.

This group is truly open to the radical Salafist messaging and they know how to exploit it and what do we see from the effected countries---absolutely no counter actions as they simply do not "see" it or maybe just want to ignore it? IE over 400 fighters alone from the UK and Germany says something.

IE what makes an American aged 33 stand up travel to Syria and fight and die in Syria for the IS/Islamists?---there is the core problem. We simply have not "seen" the problem and fully "understood" the problem either in Iraq or outside of the ME. That is both hard and difficult and we Americans do not do hard and difficult well these days as that requires thought power.

IE what is driving a number of the Arab Spring countries back towards the military instead of towards the idea of rule of law and good governance that drove at first the Springs.

Look at just the Ukraine--a perfect playing field for the US to drive counter messaging as the Russian info war has made a serious number of mistakes but nothing comes from the western side to drive a counter message pointing out relentlessly the blatant lies and dis-info.

Right now it is the playing field for energized bloggers and open source analysts that are providing far more information than say 50 US Obama briefings and press conferences.

That is dangerous to think about---political leadership being out played by social media bloggers who both "sees and understands".

Right now both in the Iraq/Syria and the Ukraine---we currently have basically absolutely no US leadership to be seen anywhere nor do we have even a strategy for both that can be seen and understood.

That is dangerous.

[OUTLAW 09]

Bill M---this is a perfect example of what I am saying---from one of the major bloggers and analysts and he is in Holland.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Russian T-72s spotted in Sverdlovsk

This video shows T-72s driving through Sverdlovsk.

ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Where are the major press conferences from US or European political leaders that are standing up and pointing bluntly at the videos and saying to the global world--Russia/Putin you are and have been lying since before the Crimea.

Instead the world press shows Putin in his press conference in Minsk---maintaining the same messaging--"it ain't us."

What do we see from the West-night vision glasses, body armor and anti tank weapons to the Kurds and only words to the Ukrainians who are actually fighting against the new Putin doctrine in basically the name of the West--does that make sense to anyone?

[OUTLAW 09]

Another day in the war front of a non invasion but from the US declared an "incursion" and still no comments from US/EU/NATO leaders about Russian troops in the Ukraine and the heavy weapons flowing it as well.

Deafening silence and this is a "strategy" to counter the Putin Doctrine?

#Ilovaisk (near #Donetsk #Ukraine) is where 1 of the most intense battles is ongoing. A video from the frontlines:
http://youtu.be/GUpWWJlazkY

Russia is shelling a Ukrainian village from Russian territory.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=v-fVDadSaI0 …
pic.twitter.com/BJlJH3XrXY

Yesterday #Russia claimed it had occupied #Novoazovsk... it didn't. So today Russian artillery attacked the village: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-fVDadSaI0 …

UA Security Council: villages north of #Novoazovsk #Ukraine have been captured by the Russian army. #Russia continues to shell the city

#russia colonel A.Khotulev confirmed in talks to relatives: military personnel fr #Kostroma was KIA & WIA in #Ukraine
http://goo.gl/f5i05Y

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is a lesson taken straight out of the Russian new military UW doctrine New Generation Warfare.

We will send an "aid" convoy to the area claiming "humanitarian crisis", the West will "complain" as did Obama and the West will utter a few statements concerning more possible sanctions and then state for the news media ---well you will need ICRC and Ukrainian approval.

Then in the face of no approval Putin sends the convoy in and over 30 trucks were empty with no "aid" onboard---reason they are there if the other trucks "break down".

Then when the Ukrainians complain the Russians and their mercenaries were disassembling defense factories and carrying the equipment back to Russia---what response do we get from Western leaders to include Obama who has not publicly made a hard statement in literally days even if "threats" were issued.

Again deafening silence from the West.

Then today from even Russian official media one see the "aid" being unloaded---ie the stolen equipment from the Ukraine.

So again what is the strategy currently for the Ukraine outside of deafening silence?

So this is how Russia is going to rebuild their defense abilities---simply steal it?

Rus media: Lugansk machinery factory, complete with equipment, workers moved to Cheboksary, #Russia. How? #raidconvoy
http://www.vesti.ru/only_video.htm

[OUTLAW 09]

Bill---as always some interesting thoughts--

1. the fighting has become internationalized---very much!---yesterday was a blog of a French camera team accompanying two French men who joined the Russian separatists and who crossed into the southern front.

This has in fact become similar to the Spanish civil war---ie communists vs other than non communists.

Why communist---just check the flags and slogans from the proRussian Ukrainians and the separatists and the info war messaging ie against "fascists"

But the heart of the matter still goes to what I have called since the beginning---this is a Putin Doctrine--underlined the word doctrine. And by the way often from commenters here rejected.

Also rejected by a number of commenters here is the simple fact that the fighting in the Ukraine and the take over of the Crimea is part and parcel of the new Russian military doctrine New Generation Warfare that supports the political warfare ie the Putin Doctrine---that is so clear as clear water but for some reason many seem to not see the connections.

The Putin doctrine -- the belief that Russia has the right to act to protect Russian-speakers, no matter where they are -- puts NATO nations such as Estonia, Latvia, and Poland at risk. Each of these countries has citizens who speak Russian; the Kremlin has suggested it would penetrate those borders if Moscow thought those populations were threatened.

NOTE: Check the secret addendum to the Molotov/Ribbentrop 23.8.1939 agreements and one will notice just what countries were "given" to Stalin and just where Russia is now focusing this new doctrine.

Many commenters here need to fully reread a number of times the Duma speech from Putin--he spells it all out and clearly defines his thinking.

And by the way the concept that many here wrote about---negotiate--does not work against this new Russian doctrine---Putin only understands force or the projection of force--just look at his final press comments yesterday in Minsk--hey it is the others to figure out---only when pressed by the social media blogs and their digging and blogging did Russia finally admit their troops were captured, but again by "accidently" being in the wrong place?

Secondly, right now there is no effective counter measures outside sanctions due to having virtually no US combat power on the ground in Europe---in the old days if a US president wanted to signal something to the Soviets all it took was a ramp up of the alert status and it would get their attention---the raising of the alert status for a transportation or logistics unit does not get anyone's attention nor do jet fighters in the current environment of S300s.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/08/26/how_nato_could_confront_the_putin_doctrine_petro_p oroshenko_belarus

Your comments on radicalization are spot one--but if we look at how Russian has "radicalized" both the Crimea and the Ukraine we need to fully understand just how messaging works and how to first counter the messaging then your valid comments on values---right now there is a large number of Muslim men and even women living and working or not working in the European countries looking for some meaning in their lives that are not found inside the European societies who basically still are racist meaning if not true French, German, Dutch, Slovenian, Polish then you are an outsider.

This group is truly open to the radical Salafist messaging and they know how to exploit it and what do we see from the effected countries---absolutely no counter actions as they simply do not "see" it or maybe just want to ignore it? IE over 400 fighters alone from the UK and Germany says something.

IE what makes an American aged 33 stand up travel to Syria and fight and die in Syria for the IS/Islamists?---there is the core problem. We simply have not "seen" the problem and fully "understood" the problem either in Iraq or outside of the ME. That is both hard and difficult and we Americans do not do hard and difficult well these days as that requires thought power.

IE what is driving a number of the Arab Spring countries back towards the military instead of towards the idea of rule of law and good governance that drove at first the Springs.

Look at just the Ukraine--a perfect playing field for the US to drive counter messaging as the Russian info war has made a serious number of mistakes but nothing comes from the western side to drive a counter message pointing out relentlessly the blatant lies and dis-info.

Right now it is the playing field for energized bloggers and open source analysts that are providing far more information than say 50 US Obama briefings and press conferences.

That is dangerous to think about---political leadership being out played by social media bloggers who both "sees and understands".

Right now both in the Iraq/Syria and the Ukraine---we currently have basically absolutely no US leadership to be seen anywhere nor do we have even a strategy for both that can be seen and understood.

That is dangerous.

Bill M--this goes to your comment that the Ukraine is now similar to the Spanish civil war---this French video depicts ultra nationalists from Russia supporting the separatists.

It is amazing to see ultra rightists supporting basically a communist ideology in Putin against alleged "fascists".

But on the other hand a number of the more radical European right wingers and their groups openly support Putin in his perceived clash with western values---even the current Hungarian leader openly supports Putin's arguments against the West and the EU.

Right wingers against "fascists" who would have thought six months ago?

Far-right ‘Russian Jihad’ fighters cross into #Ukraine: "Mentally, I'm ready to die". http://www.france24.com/en/focus/20140826-far-right-russian-jihad-fighters-cross-ukraine/ …

And now Greeks are getting into supporting the Russian mercenaries---from RIA today:

Kind of like---"ultra nationalists of the world unite yourselves" in order to fight the western values espoused by "fascists".

© RIA Novosti. Maksim Blinov

Greeks Fighting Alongside Donetsk People’s Republic Militia - Reports

Topic:Situation in the South-East of Ukraine

Volunteers from Greece are among the representatives of various nationalities in the ranks of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) indepedence forces, the Athens Courier newspaper reported.

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is a lesson taken straight out of the Russian new military UW doctrine New Generation Warfare.

We will send an "aid" convoy to the area claiming "humanitarian crisis", the West will "complain" as did Obama and the West will utter a few statements concerning more possible sanctions and then state for the news media ---well you will need ICRC and Ukrainian approval.

Then in the face of no approval Putin sends the convoy in and over 30 trucks were empty with no "aid" onboard---reason they are there if the other trucks "break down".

Then when the Ukrainians complain the Russians and their mercenaries were disassembling defense factories and carrying the equipment back to Russia---what response do we get from Western leaders to include Obama who has not publicly made a hard statement in literally days even if "threats" were issued.

Again deafening silence from the West.

Then today from even Russian official media one see the "aid" being unloaded---ie the stolen equipment from the Ukraine.

So again what is the strategy currently for the Ukraine outside of deafening silence?

So this is how Russia is going to rebuild their defense abilities---simply steal it?

Rus media: Lugansk machinery factory, complete with equipment, workers moved to Cheboksary, #Russia. How? #raidconvoy
http://www.vesti.ru/only_video.htm

More on the "stolen" Ukrainian defense equipment---maybe the Russians "assumed" the Ukraine was to pay for the Russian "humanitarian aid"?

Die Maschinenbaufabrik von #Luhansk wird im #russischen Tschuwaschien wiederaufgebaut

https://www.facebook.com/euromaidanpr.de
pic.twitter.com/MQsG04MEaH

When #Russia tv shows an"evacuated" Ukrainian plant it sends a message "in WW2 the USSR also evacuated factories to Urals" -WW3 underway?

[OUTLAW 09]

Sun Tzu’s version of “political warfare”:
"So to win a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the highest excellence; the highest excellence is to subdue the enemy's army without fighting at all...The expert in using the military subdues the enemy's forces without going to battle, takes the enemy's walled cities without launching an attack, and crushes the enemy's state without protracted war."

An interesting discussion by War on the Rocks on “political warfare vs. hybrid warfare”
http://warontherocks.com/2014/07/on-not-so-new-warfare-political-warfare-vs-hybrid-threats/#_

Foreign Policy article from 26.8.2014 from the former Georgian President who has experienced the exact same thing the Ukrainians are going through and who had even less Western support.

Groundhog Day and Putin the Predator
We know Vladimir Putin's playbook for destabilizing Ukraine. Which is why only a decisive military victory against Moscow's forces will work.

Below are the first seven phases of the new Russian UW military doctrine New Generation Warfare that Russia uses to support their “political war” really against western values using the Ukraine as the proxy for the West.

Right now if one goes back to before the Crimea and traces and records every political comment and military move made by Russia/Putin you can virtually layer each event/comment over one of the first seven phases---it is that easy to understand every move Putin is making.

If it is that easy then why are not Western leaders capable of understanding it?

About three months ago we were only at a phase four---just in the last four weeks it has now crossed to phase seven in an eight phase process before it goes to full military conflict which to some degree the Ukrainians are already in with Russian troops fighting inside the Ukraine.

The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov,
2013, pp. 15-22):

First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological, ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).

Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.

Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.

Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.

Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.

Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.

Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of high precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons basedon new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).

[OUTLAW 09]

Bill M---here is another article concerning the internationalization of the fighting in the Ukraine.

This was just posted by bellingcat---the OSINT blogger from the UK and it concerns an ultra nationalist Russian group fighting in the Ukraine.

A really good OSINT work up on the group.

By the way---there is some blogging indicators of a Turkish group fighting with the mercenaries as well but nothing hard yet on them.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/08/27/who-exactly-are-the-terek-wolf-sotnia/

Here is also information on a Nazi group (Russian National Unity) out of Russia that is fighting as well in the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/27/a-nazi-division-from-the-russian-national-unity-is-fighting-in-ukraine-and-continues-to-recruit/

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian T-72 tank destroyed in heavy fighting near Donetsk---video shows Russian paperwork and if one watches the video you will see the Russians painted the white circle on it indicating "peacekeeping".

Crew was Russian evidently based on paperwork taken from tank and killed crew's paperwork--also in the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOhEqpS_9GU

Int Ministry's official says #Ukraine forces encircled in #Ilovaysk due to arrival of huge #Russia column. Invasion http://www.unian.ua/politics/956002-mvs-viznalo-fakt-otochennya-sil-ato-v-ilovaysku-i-poyasnilo-chomu-tak-stalosya.html …

Russian GRU recon types are also getting killed as well.
Killed In #Stepanovka on July 25. Got direct hit by a shell. Helped w "humanitarian" (r)aid. #Ukraine #ATO
pic.twitter.com/i6DMtHGGNr

[OUTLAW 09]

Sun Tzu’s version of “political warfare”:
"So to win a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the highest excellence; the highest excellence is to subdue the enemy's army without fighting at all...The expert in using the military subdues the enemy's forces without going to battle, takes the enemy's walled cities without launching an attack, and crushes the enemy's state without protracted war."

An interesting discussion by War on the Rocks on “political warfare vs. hybrid warfare”
http://warontherocks.com/2014/07/on-not-so-new-warfare-political-warfare-vs-hybrid-threats/#_

Foreign Policy article from 26.8.2014 from the former Georgian President who has experienced the exact same thing the Ukrainians are going through and who had even less Western support.

Groundhog Day and Putin the Predator
We know Vladimir Putin's playbook for destabilizing Ukraine. Which is why only a decisive military victory against Moscow's forces will work.

Below are the first seven phases of the new Russian UW military doctrine New Generation Warfare that Russia uses to support their “political war” really against western values using the Ukraine as the proxy for the West.

Right now if one goes back to before the Crimea and traces and records every political comment and military move made by Russia/Putin you can virtually layer each event/comment over one of the first seven phases---it is that easy to understand every move Putin is making.

If it is that easy then why are not Western leaders capable of understanding it?

About three months ago we were only at a phase four---just in the last four weeks it has now crossed to phase seven in an eight phase process before it goes to full military conflict which to some degree the Ukrainians are already in with Russian troops fighting inside the Ukraine.

The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov,
2013, pp. 15-22):

First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological, ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).

Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.

Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.

Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.

Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.

Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.

Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of high precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons basedon new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).

So what phase of the eight phases is this statement from Russia?

Russia Accuses NATO Of Destabilizing European Security As Russian-Backed Troops Capture Ukrainian Towns
http://bit.ly/1pH6pOE

This statement today from the Russian representatives to NATO--interesting.

Russians at NATO
‏@natomission_ru Hybrid warfare is #NATO invention. NATO allies have been perfecting their disinformation skills for years in Bosnia,Iraq,Kosovo,#Afghanistan

Notice they used the term hybrid warfare which is the newest buzz word for really political warfare.

By the way--nice compliment on the NATO disinformation skills which I have not seen in the last six months or for that matter in the last 10 years.

[OUTLAW 09]

There is no leadership coming from the Obama WH on the Ukraine and absolutely no US leadership inside NATO currently and the Baltics and Poland are getting nervous about the ability of NATO and are starting to question both the US/Germany and NATO.

This is coming from Poland--if the Russians keep pushing troops into eastern Ukraine---I fully expect Poland to go to full alert status in the next 72 hours as a sign of their willingness to come to the Ukrainian assistance and signal to the Russians their dislike of what they are doing in central Europe.

Watch the Russian PR disinformation campaign kick into high gear as well.

Donald #Tusk confirms presence of #Russian troops in #Ukraine. Says this is a security issue for #Poland.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/27/regular-russian-troops-present-in-the-donbas-tusk/ …

@mfa_russia launching full-scale PR offensive as Russian troops invade deeper and deeper into Ukrainian territory http://bit.ly/1pH6pOE

[OUTLAW 09]

There is an interesting internal Russian development that the FSB is pushing hard back on---Russian mothers of military personnel either killed, wounded and or POWs are starting via social media to speak out and are asking the Russian government to assist them in the return of the Russian killed, wounded, and POWs from the Ukraine and are openly asking why Russia soldiers are fighting in the Ukraine.

Recent Russian polling indicated over 60% of those asked were not in favor of fighting in the Ukraine. That might now go higher as the Russian social media has gotten into the game now and are pushing for answers.

http://tvrain.ru/articles/komitet_soldatskih_materej_sostavil_spisok_iz_400_ ranenyh_i_ubityh_rossijskih_soldat-374625/ … 400 #Russian regulars killed,wounded in #Ukraine,#Russia's Committee of Soldiers' Mothers says pic.twitter.com/MpjBqB2u9J

"Committee of Soldiers' Mothers": 400 dead and wounded Russian soldiers. Source: Novaya Gazeta (Russian) http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1686289.html …

While it appears the UA is being pushed back hard by Russian troops--some journalists have reported seeing in the last four weeks an unusually high number of trucks going to Russia carrying dead fighters---rumors were out there of high separatist loses but many just assumed it was rumors---but now with the POWs and other photos coming out---maybe the numbers are in fact high.

Thus Putin's push of the Russia military into the Ukraine to "save face".

But the mother's movement was definitely not anticipated by the FSB--the FSB is having an extremely tough time controlling the social media and the remaining liberal Russian media now that the word is out about Russian soldiers fighting and dying in the Ukraine especially since the Ukraine was considered a "brother country" by many Russians.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sun Tzu’s version of “political warfare”:
"So to win a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the highest excellence; the highest excellence is to subdue the enemy's army without fighting at all...The expert in using the military subdues the enemy's forces without going to battle, takes the enemy's walled cities without launching an attack, and crushes the enemy's state without protracted war."

An interesting discussion by War on the Rocks on “political warfare vs. hybrid warfare”
http://warontherocks.com/2014/07/on-not-so-new-warfare-political-warfare-vs-hybrid-threats/#_

Foreign Policy article from 26.8.2014 from the former Georgian President who has experienced the exact same thing the Ukrainians are going through and who had even less Western support.

Groundhog Day and Putin the Predator
We know Vladimir Putin's playbook for destabilizing Ukraine. Which is why only a decisive military victory against Moscow's forces will work.

Below are the first seven phases of the new Russian UW military doctrine New Generation Warfare that Russia uses to support their “political war” really against western values using the Ukraine as the proxy for the West.

Right now if one goes back to before the Crimea and traces and records every political comment and military move made by Russia/Putin you can virtually layer each event/comment over one of the first seven phases---it is that easy to understand every move Putin is making.

If it is that easy then why are not Western leaders capable of understanding it?

About three months ago we were only at a phase four---just in the last four weeks it has now crossed to phase seven in an eight phase process before it goes to full military conflict which to some degree the Ukrainians are already in with Russian troops fighting inside the Ukraine.

The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov,
2013, pp. 15-22):

First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological, ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).

Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.

Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.

Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.

Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.

Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.

Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of high precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons basedon new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).

Notice in phase five the use of the term private military companies and this statement yesterday from one of the captured Russian airborne soldiers.

One paratrooper named Sergei Smirnov said in an interrogation video that he was a “contractor” in the Russian army who had come to Ukraine “for training.” He added that he did not know he was in Ukraine until “we went through a village and saw a Ukrainian tank.”

[OUTLAW 09]

There is an interesting internal Russian development that the FSB is pushing hard back on---Russian mothers of military personnel either killed, wounded and or POWs are starting via social media to speak out and are asking the Russian government to assist them in the return of the Russian killed, wounded, and POWs from the Ukraine and are openly asking why Russia soldiers are fighting in the Ukraine.

Recent Russian polling indicated over 60% of those asked were not in favor of fighting in the Ukraine. That might now go higher as the Russian social media has gotten into the game now and are pushing for answers.

http://tvrain.ru/articles/komitet_soldatskih_materej_sostavil_spisok_iz_400_ ranenyh_i_ubityh_rossijskih_soldat-374625/ … 400 #Russian regulars killed,wounded in #Ukraine,#Russia's Committee of Soldiers' Mothers says pic.twitter.com/MpjBqB2u9J

"Committee of Soldiers' Mothers": 400 dead and wounded Russian soldiers. Source: Novaya Gazeta (Russian) http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1686289.html …

While it appears the UA is being pushed back hard by Russian troops--some journalists have reported seeing in the last four weeks an unusually high number of trucks going to Russia carrying dead fighters---rumors were out there of high separatist loses but many just assumed it was rumors---but now with the POWs and other photos coming out---maybe the numbers are in fact high.

Thus Putin's push of the Russia military into the Ukraine to "save face".

But the mother's movement was definitely not anticipated by the FSB--the FSB is having an extremely tough time controlling the social media and the remaining liberal Russian media now that the word is out about Russian soldiers fighting and dying in the Ukraine especially since the Ukraine was considered a "brother country" by many Russians.

More on the Russian population learning about Russian military fighting and dying in the Ukraine:

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant

With reports of dead Rus soldiers mounting, Vedomosti demands to know: Are we fighting in Ukraine or not? (Russian). http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/news/32616101/voyuem-li-my?full#cut

[OUTLAW 09]

OK active and retired SF/SOF---something of extreme interest.

Your prior training of Ukrainian SF is paying off.

Again what phase of the eight steps of the new Russian UW doctrine is this?


BREAKING #Russian SOF have started using K-9 units against #Ukraine SOF in Ukraine. 6 #RUS SOF & 2 dogs are eliminated. #ATO

Again new info on the killed Russian SOF team and dogs.

CONFIRMED UPDATE - #Russian SOF K-9 units where today #Ukraine SOF eliminated 6 & 2 dogs were fr #Russian army unit 35690.

UPDATE2 The #Russian army SOF unit 35690 was called "Sputnik" ("Спутник"). [Companion].

[Firn]

The influential conserative German FAZ features a well-written article with the memorable title 'Russian casualities in Ukraine: from their graves are vanishing the wreaths' (http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/russische-gefallene-in-der-ukraine-von-den-graebern-verschwinden-die-kraenze-13120157.html)

When you think that the Kremlin's acid cynism and ridiculous lies can not be pushed any further you will find yourself wrong again and again:


„Er ist nicht aus eigenem Willen in die Ukraine gegangen“

Ein lokaler Abgeordneter berichtete nun, in Pskow spreche man offen darueber, dass den Familien der Getöteten von den Behoerden auch die Entschaedigung verwehrt werde, weil sie als „Freiwillige“ und damit unter Verletzung des Strafgesetzbuches in die Ukraine gezogen seien. Dieses quasijuristische Argument war bisher im Zusammenhang mit den Freiwilligen aus Russland, die in der Ukraine für die im russischen Staatsfernsehen seit langem als Streiter wider den Faschismus glorifizierten Separatisten zu kaempfen, noch nicht bemueht worden.

To hide the use of regular units in it's war against Ukraine fallen Russian soldiers ordered to invade are painted as 'volunteers', denying their relatives compensations and the fallen decorations on their graves.

Congratulations for those brave Russian souls fighting for the truth against the Kremlin's ruthless might.

[OUTLAW 09]

If one rereads the new Russian military doctrine largely built on UW in the eight phases one will see often the term camouflage.

MilitaryMaps is a Russian camouflage effort in the open source world that "portrays" separatists military movements---the new southern front was portrayed two days before it happened.

There is now in the maps is an actual airborne effort by supposedly separatists which in fact have no air force or abne troops.

It is a blatant attempt to influence the decision making by the UA in order to draw them away from the Donetsk area where the actual fight is ongoing.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/504845468749537281/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

Not one to get into internal US politics but this really does have to be questioned--at the beginning of the Russian information warfare campaign there was a chart released by bloggers which I had posted to the first series of threads when the Crimea started.

In that chart I was surprised to see the mentioning of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity and made mention of that in the posting comment.

Today from one of the main blogging sites ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl that has done massively good open source analysis----is a rather detailed take apart of Russian dis-information efforts being run by a senior member of the Ron Paul's Peace and Prosperity Institute.

In order to fully understand the new Russian doctrine one must fully understand the dis-information efforts by the Russians as it is an inherent part of the current Russian political warfare against the Ukraine.

Then on top of it one must actually go back and reread several comments made by Ron Paul himself that matches the Russian propaganda messaging to a "T".

Reread his comments after reading through the ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl analysis of his Institute and then sit back and mull it over.

The US term of someone being "democratic" is slowly being turned upside down--why because much of this analysis work never makes into the US mainstream media and Americans never get a chance to read it.

Leaning from watching this dis-information campaign unfold---there are at least four sides to a discussion.

By the way Russian TV in the States is doing a great job as well on the dis-information front.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

RPI executive director Daniel McAdams acts as Russian Propagandist/Troll

Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) of the 'Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity' is profiling himself on Twitter and it turns out he has a profound proRussian attitude that looks exactly like those of Russian Trolls.

On the website of the Ron Paul Institute, Daniel McAdams features as the executive Director:

This clearly connects these accounts and it means @DanielLMcAdams is not a fake account impersonating the real McAdams, but it is indeed the executive director of the institute.

Daniel McAdams can be found as an author on the Russia Today website:

The first three articles in which he is featuring, already blow his cover: he operates as an extension of Russian Propaganda.
These are some things he says:

•"Ukrainian authorities are carrying out ethnic cleansing."
•Ukrainian "election in such a climate ... result of 'wonderfully democratic' vote"
•"Imposing sanctions on Russia is an act of war."
•"Stalemate can only be resolved by returning to February 21 agreement between Yanukovich and the opposition."

McAdams came to my attention because of his extremely rude remarks towards a Ukrainian citizen reporting live from Novoazovsk while it was being shelled, under attack and being taken over by Russian forces:

[OUTLAW 09]

Informative video from Russian mercenaries side advancing in #Ilovaisk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd5WTp8MpUU … pic.twitter.com/VHHcSqymkn

[OUTLAW 09]

Todays' events concerning what the US has declared via a press conference to be "an incursion" and is largely ignoring out of fear they must finally lead and others are calling an outright "invasion".

Some say we the world should learn from history but what did the West "learn" from Georgia and Moldavia when dealing with Putin?


Group of Russian army with tanks settled in Novooasovsk #RussiainvadedUkraine pic.twitter.com/WUwMxLyK9b

@JamesRon1980 Unidentified SU-25 seen near Novazovsk yesterday around 19:00, comfirmed visual by me and my team @ISNJH @lennutrajektoor

15,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine: Russian NGO claims massive deployment of Russian troops
#RussiainvadedUkraine
http://youtu.be/OSUeewx4qL8

Ukrainian officials alarmed with reports that "little green men have landed" around Mariuopol in Eastern Ukraine - unmarked Russian forces.

BREAKING General Secretary of the United Nation proposed to revoke #Russia veto right in #UNSC #RussiainvadedUkraine https://twitter.com/melanhaton/status/504855546969997312 …

Russian army launches large-scale Ukraine invasion: US slams 'Russian-directed counteroffensive'
http://youtu.be/V6nRjg6SLyE

NOTE: If the US wants to get Russian attention ie Putin declare sanctions now against Putin himself and Gasprom---cut both off from international capital sources and see just how fast he responds.

George Shultz: The events in Ukraine are not receiving the response they deserve.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/william-j-perry-and-george-p-shultz-helping-ukraine-is-a-u-s-imperative-1409094947 …

BREAKING Geoffrey Pyatt officially confirms #Russian terrorists got fr #RUS army Pantsir-S1 latest AA complex. https://twitter.com/GeoffPyatt/status/504875209024086016 …

Pro-Russian rebel leader, Alexander Zakharchenko: 3-4,000 Russian citizens are fighting in their ranks #Ukraine

Committee of Mothers of Russian Soldiers: #Russia hiding Russian soldiers KIA. At least 15,000 RU troops in #Ukraine http://tvrain.ru/articles/valentina_melnikova_komitet_soldatskih_materej_pod pisyvajte_kontrakt_my_vas_otpravim_v_lugansk_ne_po dpi####e_ja_sam_za_vas_podpishu-374646/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Would be nice to go back and see some of the comments made by JMA during the start of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine events in the light of these reports coming in today via bloggers concerning the UA fighting against now overwhelming Russian infantry and tanks.

Would also be interesting to reread the comments made by some who disagreed with JMA and pushed for negotiations.

By the way the UN Charter allows a country to defend itself if an outside force is not willing to pull back.

If be interesting to go back to the beginning with the Crimea comments here and check how many commenters really did take the time to fully understand Russia's new military doctrine as it was being implemented by Putin in the face of all the verbal comments made by western leaders.

Russian wants a land corridor to the Crimea and wants the rest of the Black Sea and Azoz Sea oil/gas reserves and the west does not see this?

And if the western leaders currently think they can trust anything Putin says have been roundly disappointed. To negotiate means it is on a basis of trust so where is that with Putin?

#BREAKINGREPORT THE RUSSIAN ARMY ALSO TOOK #NOVOAZOVSK. UKRAINIAN FORCES RETREAT TO MARIUPOL.
http://m.censor.net.ua/news/299957/rossiyiskie_voyiska_zahvatili_i_zablokirovali_tank ami_novoazovsk_komandir_spetsroty_batalona_dnepr1 …

#BREAKINGNEWS THE UKRAINIAN ARMY'S FRONTLINE ONCE AGAIN COLLAPSED IN THE LIGHT OF HEAVY RUSSIAN ARMY ATTACKS.

#SAUR_MOHYLA FELL!

The EU/US/NATO has had 15 years to study Putin's Russia and still they have not understood anything but instead become corrupted and divided.

The Ukrainian army retreats, trying to avoid total annihilation.

[OUTLAW 09]

In the light of the two tweets below---just what is the US strategy?---still focus on the IS and Syria bombings?--- when the barn in central Europe is burning down, your role as NATO leader has been openly challenged and you ideas of "soft power" have be bluffed by Putin.

If the current US senior political leadership in the WH cannot hold a major press conference and show the world the supporting US classified intel, point the finger directly at Putin as a lair first class and then pull the trigger on the toughest sanctions available---then pack it in and simply declare the US is ready to go into isolation from the world and they really do not care and the idea of rule of law and good governance was simply propaganda.

Senior leadership is all about leading not hiding and silence---and the use of force and or to threaten the use of force on occasions has to be done in the name of global security.

But see Putin has disdain for Obama and views Obama as being a weak leader and afraid of tough decisions---and his failing to follow up on his own red lines contributes to that image.

There was an interesting blog late last night that projected the line of defense the Russians were setting up that ran from the Ukrainian coastline to Kaliningrad---notice that would in effect create the "buffer" Russia claims for itself.

But it effectively isolates the entire Baltics from the rest of NATO and effectively sets them up for the UW doctrine Russia is using against the Ukraine.---ie the Putin Doctrine.

My concern is Poland as they themselves no longer trust both NATO and the US to take their security concerns seriously---and the Polish Army is well trained and equipped and next door to the Ukraine

Chatham House Press @CH_PressOffice

#NATO intervention in #Ukraine is highly unlikely, but there is still headroom to significantly escalate economic sanctions - @RobinNiblett

Russian troops are 'directly involved' in fighting in Ukraine, US ambassador to Kiev claims

[OUTLAW 09]

The Putin Doctrine is real/dangerous and a threat to both the US and Europe as a whole and I used that term Doctrine just after Putin's Duma speech.

Russian troops and heavy armor have now formally crossed into and are fighting in the Ukraine.

Some here called it six months ago but also some did not like those comments--sometimes truth to power is correct but again only a few are bold enough to use it.

So US senior leaders your own AWCS and E3s did not see this coming or was the bombing of the IS which is not a serious threat to US security --even the JCoS stats that---more or less serious than Europe?

Poroshenko says "Russian forces have entered #Ukraine" http://president.gov.ua/news/31102.html

Etwa 3 bis 5 Tsd. russ. Soldaten berquerten die ukr. Grenze #invasion
https://www.facebook.com/euromaidanpr.de | EMPR #euromaidanpr_de

At emergency OSCE perm council right now--many condemning Russia's latest escalation. This is a man-made tragedy, directed by Kremlin.

[OUTLAW 09]

War in Central Europe in the 21st century ---it is here and now after everyone assumed peace had broken out in 1994---think again.

An interesting question to commenters here--when does an "incursion" become an "invasion"----29 August 2014---and those who though Russia was not implementing their new Putin Doctrine and those that think Poland and the Baltics are not part of that plan think again.

Tweet just came in---typical for Russian lying.
Russia just complained about "insulting wording" from US Amb (me)-- Russian MFA prefers that Kremlin crimes discussed in polite language.

So the use of the word "invasion" is offensive?

Really go back and reread the Molotov/Ribbentrop secret agreements---Russia views itself as the follow on Soviet Union and Poland and the Baltics are theirs forever--as well as they have denied Ukrainian independence since 1920.

Everything was here to be "seen" some here and in US senior leadership positions failed again to "understand" what they were seeing---this has been a failure of Us politics since 9/11.

Had the seriously impacting sanctions on Gasprom and Putin himself been put into play thus would not be happening--cut Russia from all global capital markets and release the sour oil reserves and drive the price to 60 USD per barrel---then you will get Putin's attention---anything else is a complete waste of time--it is way past talking time.

I personally hate the sentence---I told you so but this was serious the second Putin gave his Duma speech---ethno national imperialism is alive and well in Russia and some of us old guys thought it had died out years ago.

#Ukraine calls for emergency UN Security Council meeting. @Yatsenyuk_AP https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=382123828608425&id=238601382960671 …

Here comes the land corridor that was discussed here in SWJ back when the Crimea issue started---amazing how some get it---wonder where JMA is as his comments would be interesting at this point.

Putin ultimate plan & possible actions to achieve. #Transnistria (& poss Belarus) will be included #Ukraine #Russia
pic.twitter.com/h2cNXZi2Kv

Ukrainian officials - Novoazovsk has fallen to Russia - opening up road to the port city of Mariupol and a possible land bridge to Crimea.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian has never given up on the killing of the Ukrainian EU Association Agreement as these three demands Russia made just after Minsk depict.

Russia proposes three key amendments to the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, reports Vedomosti citing a Russian government official.

First, it is offered to reexamine the parameters and periods of time given to lower taxes on EU goods in Ukraine. According to Vedomosti’s informant, they should be lowered gradually, Russia is concerned with the taxes on goods that constitute $4 billion out of $16 billion of the entire goods circulation volume.

Second, technical regulation has to be change, as technical rules of the EU are “much stricter.” Russia thinks that this will result in Russian goods being unable to access the Ukrainian market. It should be noted that the EU has stated numerous times that this fear is mostly fueled by myth.

Third, according to the Russian Federation, unification or mutual acknowledgment of phytosanitary norms are necessary: Russia has three forms of certification, the EU has one.

“An interim period” might be needed to sold the second and third issues, thinks the federal official.

Essentially, the execution of Russia’s proposals will mean not only a full reexamination of the Association Agreement in the free trade section, but also the reexamination of the EU’s rules on internal trade.

According to EuroPravda, the European Union denies the possibility of the trilateral Ukraine-Russia-EU consultations touching on the reexamination of the Association Agreement or any of its component.

Ukraine also rejected any amendments to the Agreement.

Thus Russian troops crossed the border to support these three points.

[OUTLAW 09]

More running blog comments coming out of the Ukraine.

On BBC there was an unnamed UK top official who stated he was surprised that the Russians would send troops---hope this is not the general thinking of western leaders up to yesterday---then we all are in trouble.

For SF active and retired---highlighted is a report on Russian SEAL teams in the Ukraine.

The blog site @bellingcat has been a great open source analysis team from the UK and they are the ones carrying the Russian SEAL info.
A really great open source analysis of a Russian SEAL team inside the Ukraine---the Russian military just does not get opsec even in their supposedly "elite units".

If the Russian/Putin lies were not so blatant it might actually be funny if this was not so serious---hard ot deny "it ain't us" when your own "elite" units use social media which an in fact be tracked/recorded.

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Live blog on what is looking increasingly like open war between Ukraine and Russia. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11060959/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-Ukraine-invaded-by-Russian-forces-says-Petro-Poroshenko-live.html

Russia’s Version of the Navy SEALs May Be Fighting in Ukraine by @magnitsky on @Bellingcat https://bellingcat.com/news/mena/2014/08/28/russias-version-of-the-navy-seals-may-be-fighting-in-ukraine/ …

NATO will sell weapons to #Ukraine- National Security Bureau of #Poland http://goo.gl/UfVadZ

BREAKING NEWS: Ukraine's OSCE envoy says city of Novoazovsk and other cities nearby have been seized by regular Russian forces – Reuters

Then the standard Russian refrain "it ain't me".
RIA Novosti ✔ @ria_novosti
Russian envoy tells #OSCE there is no Russian convoys in Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

This has got to be the height of Russia cynicism--and western leaders are suppose to trust Putin and negotiate what with a basic lair?

• Russian soldiers on leave fighting Ukrainian troops alongside rebels, pro-Russian separatist leader says

Begs the question since when in the Russian Army can a soldier take his own tank or artillery piece with him while on "vacation". Quite modern thinking for a military---maybe the Israeli IDF needs to copy that concept? Sure does save time when an alert is called.

• Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko says 3-4,000 serving Russian soldiers fighting against Ukrainian troops

[kaur]

Outlaw, I'm becoming little bit disappointed with bellingcat. How on earth is центр специального назначения Russian Navy SEAL? This unit is more like FBI HRT.

You posted also this bellingcat post. This was posted in Russian already in April and we managed to agree that this bearded cossack is not GRU Vostok guy already then. Bellingcat has missed that info also. In the end of August.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/08/27/who-exactly-are-the-terek-wolf-sotnia/

If you'd like to post this info to bellingcat, you can make them look better :)

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5978&highlight=Chechen&page=62

[Firn]

Parents’ anguish over captured soldiers lays bare Russia’s covert war in Ukraine (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11061146/Parents-anguish-over-captured-soldiers-lays-bare-Russias-covert-war-in-Ukraine.html)



My complaint is to President Putin and the minister of defence: If you send servicemen somewhere and they get caught, then admit it and take responsibility, however painful it is,” said the father of Sergei Smirnov, one of the captured Russian soldiers, who did not want to give his first name.

“The Stalin times are over. It’s not 1945 when they rejected PoWs returning home. The state media have ignored our boys’ plight but they’ve got nothing to be ashamed of.” Interestingly, and despite their anxiety, most of the relatives said they believed the official government theory that the soldiers got lost while on an exercise.

However, several said it was an “alarm signal” that the young men send text messages after their departure to Rostov saying their phones were being removed, something that had not happened when they were dispatched on exercises to other parts of Russia.

Obviously the massive propaganda campaign by the Kremlin's media had a deep impact on most of the population and it takes a personal loss for some to wake up to some extent. The people want to believe Putins lies because they are sweeter then the harsh reality. With more Russian soldiers coming back dead every week this will spread, a bit like in those days of the war in Afghanistan. The official political response has been so far pretty much the same, including the efforts to hide the dead.

I'm not surprised that the phones were taken away, in a larger mass there are always some which do something stupid like giving away that they attacked Ukrainian forces or invaded the country - as some already did.

[Maeda Toshiie]

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-ukraine-president-russian-forces-20140828-story.html


Col. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's National Security Council, said the missiles from Russia were fired about 11 a.m. About an hour and a half later, the vehicles entered Ukraine from Veselo-Voznesenka, just across the border from Novoazovsk in the Rostov region in Russia.
lRelated In Ukraine, pro-Russia separatists press on with building a new state

A top NATO official said at least 1,000 Russian troops have poured into Ukraine with sophisticated equipment and have been in direct “contact” with Ukrainian soldiers, resulting in casualties, the Associated Press reported. He called that a conservative estimate and said an additional 20,000 Russian troops were right over the border in Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

This from the US UN ambassador kind of sums it up--the question for the US senior leadership---will it lead or simply do nothing as they did in 2008 with Gorgia---three wmonths later back to business as normal.

@AmbassadorPower: How can we tell countries bordering Russia their sovereignty is guaranteed if we don't make our message heard on Ukraine?

Did I miss something---was it not the US/UK that signed the Budapest Memorandum?

Late last night received a short note via a secure method from a close friend who is a Ukrainian SF company commander--and if you are old school US SF then you know what it means.

"Going to ground" was all he passed to me---he leads a sniper/guerrilla sabotage company. There has been since Feb and not talked a lot about--- a brutal Ukrainian SF/SBU counter SF fight in the Ukraine against GRU and Russian SF teams inside the Ukraine.

My response back---stay safe.

His going to ground could have been avoided if the US leadership would have fully understood Putin's Duma speech which was translated into English so there is no excuse that no one read it.

[kaur]

28 Aug. 2014
NATO releases satellite imagery showing Russian combat troops inside Ukraine

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_112103.htm

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/photos_112112.htm

[OUTLAW 09]

After today's events---can one see the connection of the Russian military/political moves when using the last three phases of Russia's new military doctrine?

It has been there all the time why is it so hard to "understand"?

Again still not hearing the comments that this has to be "negotiated".

Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.
Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of highprecision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons based on new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).
Eighth Phase: roll over the remaining points of resistance and destroy surviving enemy units by special operations conducted by reconnaissance units to spot which enemy units have survived and transmit their coordinates to the attacker's missile and artillery units; fire barrages to annihilate the defender's resisting army units by effective advanced weapons; airdrop
operations to surround points of resistance; and territory mopping-up operations by ground troops.

[OUTLAW 09]

28 Aug. 2014
NATO releases satellite imagery showing Russian combat troops inside Ukraine

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_112103.htm

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/photos_112112.htm

kaur---all the Russian UNSC Ambassador could repeatedly talk about was the MH17 air traffic tapes that the Ukrainians failed to reveal.

Does he not fully understand that all conversations are fully recorded on the black boxes?

All he tried to do was side step direct comments placed o him about the Ukraine invasion.

Notice how the UNSC as a whole did everything possible to not utter two words---invasion and war?

[OUTLAW 09]

Finnish photo imagery of the third Russian aircraft that either got "lost or on vacation" inside Finland?

Notice the comments below the photo which indicates it to be a FSB aircraft.

https://twitter.com/a7_FIN_SWE/status/504983311975190528/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, I'm becoming little bit disappointed with bellingcat. How on earth is центр специального назначения Russian Navy SEAL? This unit is more like FBI HRT.

You posted also this bellingcat post. This was posted in Russian already in April and we managed to agree that this bearded cossack is not GRU Vostok guy already then. Bellingcat has missed that info also. In the end of August.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/08/27/who-exactly-are-the-terek-wolf-sotnia/

If you'd like to post this info to bellingcat, you can make them look better :)

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5978&highlight=Chechen&page=62

kaur---will pass it on to bellingcat.

Here is more on the killed Russian SF team together with their dogs.

One of #Russian army SOF unit commanders killed in #Ukraine by UA #SOF unit on August 26 along 6 other members.
pic.twitter.com/Nufqz8yYxY

[OUTLAW 09]

A Russian soldier who chooses to fight in #Ukraine on his summer break is still a Russian soldier.
Quoted by US UNSC Ambassador.

See this is the core problem with US lack of policy ie no strategy.

No mention of serious sanctions or anything else all while the fighting is ongoing now -during Obamas press conference--Obama states he will be going to Europe next week for NATO meeting--that is to late.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian GRU/SF sabotage teams are now fanning out inside the Ukraine.

In #Kharkiv car detained, found inside more than 40 different grenades, 3 MANPADS, AK and 1,000 rounds of ammunition.

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to 'Madhu' on SWJ Blog 'Russia’s ‘Hybrid War’ (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/russia%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98hybrid-war%E2%80%99) ' I will re-post my reply to her here.

A number of times references have been made in the media and on Small Wars Council about Russian dependence of Ukrainian industrial production of key weapons systems and part, in particular aero engines.

Yesterday the BBC reported that a:
A Ukrainian firm has moved the contents of its engineering factory from the war-hit city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine to central Russia....There was no indication of how the contents of the Luhansk machine-building plant had been moved
Maybe the long convoy of partly empty 'white' trucks had another purpose, so back to the BBC report:
The revelations emerged after Ukraine claimed a Russian aid convoy had been used to move equipment from a factory that made parts for helicopter engines
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28951437

I wonder if the current incursions, no invasion, amidst its aims includes the relevant factories and an opportunity to rescue them for Russia?

[OUTLAW 09]

Really worth reading---interesting points highlighted.

Exclusive - Over 100 Russian soldiers killed in single Ukraine battle - Russian rights activists


By Thomas Grove

MOSCOW Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:59pm BST

(Reuters) - More than 100 Russian soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine in a single battle this month while helping pro-Russian separatists fight Ukrainian troops, two members of the Russian presidential human rights council said on Thursday, citing accounts from eyewitnesses and relatives of the dead.

Ella Polyakova and Sergei Krivenko, both members of the council - an advisory body with no legal powers and an uneasy relationship with the Kremlin - said around 300 people were wounded in the same incident on Aug. 13 near the town of Snizhnye, when a column of trucks they were driving, full of ammunition, was hit by a sustained volley of Grad missiles.

"A column of Russian soldiers was attacked by Grad rockets and more than 100 people died. It all happened in the city of Snizhnye in Donetsk province," Krivenko told Reuters.

Polyakova said she had been given the same figure for the number of Russian soldiers killed.

They said they had spoken to around 10 relatives of the dead and fellow soldiers who witnessed the attack, some of whom had accompanied the bodies back to Russia. Their sources said there was no documentation proving the soldiers had been in Ukraine, and the death certificates were filled out to suggest they had died elsewhere.

"When I talk to the guys who accompanied these coffins of these contract soldiers, they tell me that the order was given orally, there were no forms of documents," said Polyakova.

If confirmed, the deaths would support assertions by Kiev and its Western allies that Russia is fuelling the conflict in eastern Ukraine by supplying the separatists with both weapons and soldiers.

They pose awkward questions for the Kremlin, which has consistently denied involvement in the conflict. A defence ministry official repeated that denial in strong terms on Thursday.

No one answered the phone when Reuters called a ministry spokesman to ask about the Snizhnye incident.

"The soldiers serving on contract are given an order, and the columns go across Russia and they stop at a camp, as though part of a training exercise, on the border with Ukraine," said Polyakova.

"They take off all the (identification) numbers or blotch them out, and then cross the border," she said.

Rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said on Thursday that active Russian soldiers were fighting with the rebels against Ukrainian troops but were doing so while on vacation.

Polyakova said not one of the soldiers she or her colleagues had spoken to had filled out a form to go on vacation, standard procedure for contract soldiers.

Krivenko said that around the middle of August they had received complaints from parents of the soldiers that they could not contact their sons.

The pair said they had asked Russia's Investigative Committee to open a probe into the case.

"We've made requests to official bodies, but as of yet we've received no answer," Polyakova said.


This referencing large number of wounded Russian military personnel.

St. Petersburg local specialized hospital reports 15 planes w wounded #Russian army soldiers have arrive in a week pic.twitter.com/dfOqeFYAfk

[OUTLAW 09]

Thanks to 'Madhu' on SWJ Blog 'Russia’s ‘Hybrid War’ (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/russia%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%98hybrid-war%E2%80%99) ' I will re-post my reply to her here.

A number of times references have been made in the media and on Small Wars Council about Russian dependence of Ukrainian industrial production of key weapons systems and part, in particular aero engines.

Yesterday the BBC reported that a:
Maybe the long convoy of partly empty 'white' trucks had another purpose, so back to the BBC report:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28951437

I wonder if the current incursions, no invasion, amidst its aims includes the relevant factories and an opportunity to rescue them for Russia?

Virtually all Russian helicopter engines come from the Ukraine.

When the sanctions came into effect Russian sources were quoted on RIA and Interfax stating it would take Russian 5-7 years to rebuild their industries that were located in the Ukraine.

[Dayuhan]

No mention of serious sanctions or anything else all while the fighting is ongoing now -during Obamas press conference--Obama states he will be going to Europe next week for NATO meeting--that is to late.

Again I think you overlook a basic reality: unilateral sanctions will not be effective, multilateral sanctions will not be quick. Action can either be fast and decisive or it can be multiilateral: it will never be both. Everybody sees what's going on, but they have to thrash out what they are willing to do in return. That won't be done overnight, because all of the parties doing the thrashing out have domestic impacts to consider. The US can't take effective economic action on its own, neither can it dictate what actions will be taken by others

That's not ideal, but it's what exists.

[OUTLAW 09]

Again I think you overlook a basic reality: unilateral sanctions will not be effective, multilateral sanctions will not be quick. Action can either be fast and decisive or it can be multiilateral: it will never be both. Everybody sees what's going on, but they have to thrash out what they are willing to do in return. That won't be done overnight, because all of the parties doing the thrashing out have domestic impacts to consider. The US can't take effective economic action on its own, neither can it dictate what actions will be taken by others

That's not ideal, but it's what exists.

US can actually issue sanctions against Putin's wealth estimated in the billions, can issue sanctions against Gasprom---meaning no access to US capital markets, can cut Gasproms access to money movements via NYC, and can limit 90 day lines of credit without asking Europe.

US can release oil out of the national reserves and rock the current sour oil markets which are at 95 USD down under the 90 range ---Russia recently stated they need 104 per barrel.

[OUTLAW 09]

Two More Russian POWs in Ukraine

18:55 (GMT)

Two more Russian POWs have been captured outside Ilovaisk in Ukraine, Espreso TV reports.

A video showing one of the soldiers has been broadcast.

The soldier has a swollen face with some scratches and may have been mistreated. He speaks in a monotonous voices and says some of the types of rehearsed-sounding statements that we have heard in other POW videos of interrogations.

Because he is in captivity, his confession was coerced and cannot be accepted as factual.

The Interpreter has translated the statement:

Soldier: We were brought to Rostov and they told us there would be training. The convoy started up and we then found ourselves by morning in Ukraine.

Interrogator: When did you realize it wasn't a training?

Soldier: When we landed under fire.

Interrogator: Didn't you know when they gave you not a training, but a combat kit?

Soldier: They handed them out on the border.

[OUTLAW 09]

Impressed with the US UNSC Ambassador's cynicism in her responses to Russian MFA and Russian UNSC Ambassador statements--and she is quick.

Russia basically "threatened" the US in their recent statement telling the US to "butt" out of the Ukraine.


Samantha Power ✔ @AmbassadorPower

Russia says US sldn't interfere in internal affairs of Ukraine. Interesting. Is this what noninterference looks like?

pic.twitter.com/rs8dCD0u0j


Samantha Power ✔ @AmbassadorPower

Russian Amb. omits mention of Russian combat units & rocket fire from #Russia. Might have gotten away with this before invention of cameras.


Samantha Power ✔ @AmbassadorPower

Russian Amb: "Everyone knows Russian volunteers are fighting in Ukraine"
1st such admission? Like Crimea: take territory 1st, admit it later

[OUTLAW 09]

More Russian social media open source intelligence that has got to have the FSB spinning in circles--especially since it concerns the Russian Spetnaz.

If the documents are true then another nail in the coffin of "it ain't us".

http://ukrainewarlog.blogspot.de/2014/08/exclusive-leaked-spetsnaz-document.html

[OUTLAW 09]

So another nail in the Putin coffin that he does not have any influence over the mercenaries in eastern Ukraine.

Maybe he is trying to get back his 12 POWs now and is realizing the sanctions are coming hard and heavy.

OR maybe the initial scattered peace demos and the Mothers of Russian Soldiers Committee is starting to gain traction inside Russia and Russians are awakening to the fact that they are at war with the Ukraine long considered to be a "brother country"..

In two days---the Russian stock market has wiped out billions from Russian companies wealth---a two day drop of over 10% in some companies and it will continue tomorrow as well.

Sky News Newsdesk ✔ @SkyNewsBreak
Reuters: Russian president Vladimir Putin orders pro-Russia rebels to provide humanitarian corridor for encircled #Ukraine troops to exit

[OUTLAW 09]

So here comes the long awaited "peacekeeping mission" so what is the Wests' response to the annexation of eastern/southern Ukraine?

Putin issues notice of "Peacekeeping" Occupation: Russia "will provide humanitarian assistance to people of Donbass"

http://kremlin.ru/news/46506

Further comments on his statement:

He doesn't actually use the word in the text but that's how the Kremlin headlines the appeal: "...to the militiamen of Novorossia"

"New Russia"---man Putin never comes off of his own words that we in the west never seem to want to read nor listen to---it was there in his Duma speech for the west to see.

Game over---Western leadership has failed and now Russia will build out the land corridor to the Crimea which is where they were headed this afternoon---to Odessa and then onto Moldavia.

This western leadership failure has now allowed for Russia to actually field test the new Putin Doctrine--Poland and the Baltics have now a problem---they have seen little to no support within NATO and especially Germany in expanding NATO in their countries and have watched as Putin made his moves with little to no resistance from either NATO, the US or the EU.

By the way this Crimea land corridor move was an option discussed in this thread back during the Crimea events.

Full text of his message in English:

President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed Novorossiya militia

August 29, 2014, 01:10





Full text of address

It is clear the militia has achieved a major success in intercepting Kiev’s military operation, which represents a grave danger to the population of Donbass and which has already led to the loss of many lives among peaceful residents.

As a result of the militia’s actions, a large number of Ukrainian service members who did not participate in the military operation of their own volition but while following orders have been surrounded.

I call on the militia groups to open a humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian service members who have been surrounded, so as to avoid any needless loss of life, giving them the opportunity to leave the combat area unimpeded and reunite with their families, to return them to their mothers, wives and children, and to quickly provide medical assistance to those who were injured in the course of the military operation.

For its part, the Russian side is ready and willing to provide humanitarian aid to the people of Donbass, who have been affected by this humanitarian catastrophe.

I once again call on the Ukrainian authorities to immediately stop military actions, cease fire, sit down at the negotiating table with Donbass representatives and resolve all the accumulated problems exclusively via peaceful means.

[Dayuhan]

US can actually issue sanctions against Putin's wealth estimated in the billions, can issue sanctions against Gasprom---meaning no access to US capital markets, can cut Gasproms access to money movements via NYC, and can limit 90 day lines of credit without asking Europe.

Global capital markets are called "global" for a reason. Lines of credit are available in plenty of places, and Gazprom doesn't do all that much business with the US. US-only sanctions will be a minor issue at most, and are not going to change anyone's behavior. The US simply doesn't dominate the global financial landscape in the way it once did. Overall that's a good thing for the global economy, but it does reduce US leverage, particularly over Russia, where economic linkages are not that strong.

I think you're also underestimating the extent to which the US needs the Europeans in this as equal partners. If the US looks inclined to go it alone, many in Europe will be inclined to fold up the tents and let the US do it. Forcing Europe to lead in regional affairs is very much a legitimate goal for the US, just as forcing Japan to step up in Asia is a major goal there. If the US jumps out in front, will the other partners do their share? Not bloody likely.

The US cannot police the world alone, and allies need to accept that, step up, and do their share, even if that means the US has to simply refuse to go unilateral. Forcing regional allies to take an equal part in managing affairs in their areas is a goal as important as anything specifically related to the Ukraine.


US can release oil out of the national reserves and rock the current sour oil markets which are at 95 USD down under the 90 range ---Russia recently stated they need 104 per barrel.

That's not going to work for long enough to make a difference. Everyone in the oil market knows that the SPR is finite and needs to be replenished, and that when replenishment starts, the US will have to buy more than it consumes: demand will increase. That means a scramble to stock up in anticipation, and it means producers with financial reserves will cut back in order to sell their oil at the higher prices that will commence when the US has to replenish the reserves. The more the US releases, the faster the scramble will get, because the more the US releases, the sooner and more aggressively they will have to replenish.

Even in the very unlikely event that the US on its own could depress oil prices far enough long enough to seriously hurt Russia, have you considered the collateral damage in other countries that depend on oil revenue? Think Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, etc...

Trying to manipulate oil prices as a weapon is a lot more complicated in reality than it is in the minds (using the term loosely) of the blogosphere. That's why you don't see credible analysts proposing it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Global capital markets are called "global" for a reason. Lines of credit are available in plenty of places, and Gazprom doesn't do all that much business with the US. US-only sanctions will be a minor issue at most, and are not going to change anyone's behavior. The US simply doesn't dominate the global financial landscape in the way it once did. Overall that's a good thing for the global economy, but it does reduce US leverage, particularly over Russia, where economic linkages are not that strong.

I think you're also underestimating the extent to which the US needs the Europeans in this as equal partners. If the US looks inclined to go it alone, many in Europe will be inclined to fold up the tents and let the US do it. Forcing Europe to lead in regional affairs is very much a legitimate goal for the US, just as forcing Japan to step up in Asia is a major goal there. If the US jumps out in front, will the other partners do their share? Not bloody likely.

The US cannot police the world alone, and allies need to accept that, step up, and do their share, even if that means the US has to simply refuse to go unilateral. Forcing regional allies to take an equal part in managing affairs in their areas is a goal as important as anything specifically related to the Ukraine.



That's not going to work for long enough to make a difference. Everyone in the oil market knows that the SPR is finite and needs to be replenished, and that when replenishment starts, the US will have to buy more than it consumes: demand will increase. That means a scramble to stock up in anticipation, and it means producers with financial reserves will cut back in order to sell their oil at the higher prices that will commence when the US has to replenish the reserves. The more the US releases, the faster the scramble will get, because the more the US releases, the sooner and more aggressively they will have to replenish.

Even in the very unlikely event that the US on its own could depress oil prices far enough long enough to seriously hurt Russia, have you considered the collateral damage in other countries that depend on oil revenue? Think Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, etc...

Trying to manipulate oil prices as a weapon is a lot more complicated in reality than it is in the minds (using the term loosely) of the blogosphere. That's why you don't see credible analysts proposing it.

Dayuhan---that pointing this out to you as you sometimes while looking at the picture see the small things not what is staring you in the face. By the way the comments I had on oil in fact came from one of the best oil commenters in the business not from the blog world.

If all of what you say is correct--assuming it is correct then explain why VTB and Rosneft are asking the Russian Central Bank for support because they have a total of 34B due the end of this year and beginning next year in debt services and cannot get financial support from US and nearly now impossible in the Far East capital markets.

Think about it---all banks--global in nature have to clear their USD accounts through NYC and for that they must get a US license to do business---even if just clearing USDs.To clear even USDs for a Russian sanctioned person or companies risks that bank losing it's US license and if lost they cannot clear USDs regardless where those dollars reside and if they cannot clear that means a business disaster for them.

That my friend is the current globalness of banking.

Currently all Russian companies and banks that have been hit with sanctions are standing in line and have formally asked the Russian CB for support---notice no response from the CB---alone VTB and Rosneft have asked for 45B USD and the CB has only 450B in foreign currency available on top of the demands for the Yukos court decision that they must pay in order to remain credible banking wise..

Secondly oil---have you honestly checked how the current prices for sour crude are dropping and fast---Russia defines their needs last week to be 104 per barrel actually up from their previous statement of 95.

Sour crude is expected to drop to the support range of 90 and if it breaks through that then the bottom cannot be seen. Right now in the face of massive intl political events which should be driving the prices up they are in fact sinking on their own---ever wonder why?

[OUTLAW 09]

One needs to read this in order to understand what it meant by the tern contracted service member or what the Russians in their new UW military strategy that is currently being used in the Ukraine call private defense contractors.


Members of Russia's presidential human rights council detail how Russian soldiers are contracted to serve in #Ukraine

http://tmsnrt.rs/1vqMyGJ



"No #Russian army troops are in #Chechnya" Russian Federation Minister of Defence Grachev 26 November 1994.

#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/TebZXmOiJg

The Russians have been doing this since 1994 and the West thinks this is what---new from them?

[OUTLAW 09]

Go back and reread former Putin statements that his has made over the last four months on the linked topic below---he never comes off of his messaging--it is interesting that a number of commenters here seem to take his words and do not place them against his actions and that since 2008.

Simply do a Google of the Russian term "New Russia" and then historically look at what he is both saying and doing and come back and tell me he is "honest and trustworthy to do business with"?

This move is just another nail in NATO/EU/US foreign policy since he has taken over in 2001 and especially since Georgia and Moldavia.

KGB senior field officers seldom change their stripes especially ones from Dresden.

http://www.vox.com/2014/8/28/6080589/putin-ukraines-rebels-novorossiya

[davidbfpo]

Outlaw09,

The indecision we have seen in Western Europe / NATO / EU over first the Crimea and now the Ukraine reminds me of the reluctance to face facts when the civil war started in Bosnia-Herzegovina. There was a lot of "look away", notably by Germany; then the sad antics of UNPROFOR which fed those about to die and did not provide protection.

I know the USA has claimed to have been decisive in advocating coercion of the Serbs to stop the civil war and related genocide. Others argue that the siege of Sarejevo was broken by the trilateral action taken on Mt. Igman by the British, Dutch & French - placing artillery overlooking Serbian positions and issuing an ultimatum to stop firing.

Europe, especially the UK, took an unbelievable stance during the civil war. Perhaps today it will be the Poles who are brave enough to say enough?

That there is a WAR in Europe, even far to the east, is so contrary to the idea and imagery of a peaceful Europe - seen very visibly in the EU - it cannot accept what Russia is doing.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw09,

The indecision we have seen in Western Europe / NATO / EU over first the Crimea and now the Ukraine reminds me of the reluctance to face facts when the civil war started in Bosnia-Herzegovina. There was a lot of "look away", notably by Germany; then the sad antics of UNPROFOR which fed those about to die and did not provide protection.

I know the USA has claimed to have been decisive in advocating coercion of the Serbs to stop the civil war and related genocide. Others argue that the siege of Sarejevo was broken by the trilateral action taken on Mt. Igman by the British, Dutch & French - placing artillery overlooking Serbian positions and issuing an ultimatum to stop firing.

Europe, especially the UK, took an unbelievable stance during the civil war. Perhaps today it will be the Poles who are brave enough to say enough?

That there is a WAR in Europe, even far to the east, is so contrary to the idea and imagery of a peaceful Europe - seen very visibly in the EU - it cannot accept what Russia is doing.

David--you are totally correct.

What worries me as an American watching this at a distance from DC but actually close to the Ukraine and having a close Ukrainian SF friend now in the heavy fighting---is to listen to the Obama press conference from yesterday.

How can it be that the US civilian leadership of a superpower has "no stated strategy for the Iraq and or Syria and or both of them"?

How can it be that during a 20 minute press conference where there is a war going on in Central Europe---the first war in Europe as a whole since 1945 -Obama has about five minutes of time to say anything about it.

How an it be that the Obama has truly no strategy for the Ukraine that anyone can make out?

How can it be that the US/Obama and DoD does not fully understand the new Russian military doctrine nor understands exactly what UW is in support of political warfare.

How can it be that Obama and DoD do not fully understand what the ethno nationalist imperialism being practiced by Putin is?

How can it be that US media asks tons of questions about IS which the JCoS stated is not a direct threat at the moment to the US but is for it's neighbors BUT virtually nothing about events in the Ukraine?

How can it be that the Obama advisory teams did not anticipate exactly what Putin is doing now in the Ukraine.

Putin openly stated his intent during the Duma speech ESPECIALLY check the statements he has made today at the School.

Sometimes residing overseas sets a different perspective--maybe the White House should move to say Berlin for a couple of years to expand their world views.

Reference the Europeans--this came over the blogs today and it does make one really wonder if both Europe and the US are in an alternate state of reality when it comes to Russia?

Instead of the sectoral sanctions on energy, EU considering restrictions on vodka, caviar, diamonds. Seriously?

Europe and the US does have massive pressure points;
1. cut all 90 day lines of credit to any Russian company, bank or Gazprom
2. sanctions Putin's wealth as a war criminal
3. cut all banking ties to Russian individuals, companies and Gazprom from Europe and the US

Have actually been waiting for the Ukrainians to shut off the gas flows to deny Russian cash flow and to finally pressure the EU into waking up and smelling the coffee.

[OUTLAW 09]

David--here is a perfect example of the current Putin/Russian altered state of reality.

For seven months they have been calling the Ukrainians---juntaists, Nazi's, ultra national radicals, Banderites, fascists---and then today in Putin's speech to the school -----

He stated "Russians and Ukranians are one people"

What delusional world is he really in?

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes even bloggers in general have humor:

Breaking: historians discover true reason behind Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia Soviet military got lost during border patrol.

[davidbfpo]

David--you are totally correct.

What worries me as an American watching this at a distance from DC but actually close to the Ukraine and having a close Ukrainian SF friend now in the heavy fighting---is to listen to the Obama press conference from yesterday.

How can it be that the US civilian leadership of a superpower has "no stated strategy for the Iraq and or Syria and or both of them"?

How can it be that during a 20 minute press conference where there is a war going on in Central Europe---the first war in Europe as a whole since 1945 -Obama has about five minutes of time to say anything about it.

How an it be that the Obama has truly no strategy for the Ukraine that anyone can make out?

How can it be that the US/Obama and DoD does not fully understand the new Russian military doctrine nor understands exactly what UW is in support of political warfare.

How can it be that Obama and DoD do not fully understand what the ethno nationalist imperialism being practiced by Putin is?

How can it be that US media asks tons of questions about IS which the JCoS stated is not a direct threat at the moment to the US but is for it's neighbors BUT virtually nothing about events in the Ukraine?

How can it be that the Obama advisory teams did not anticipate exactly what Putin is doing now in the Ukraine.

Putin openly stated his intent during the Duma speech ESPECIALLY check the statements he has made today at the School.

Sometimes residing overseas sets a different perspective--maybe the White House should move to say Berlin for a couple of years to expand their world views.

Reference the Europeans--this came over the blogs today and it does make one really wonder if both Europe and the US are in an alternate state of reality when it comes to Russia?

Instead of the sectoral sanctions on energy, EU considering restrictions on vodka, caviar, diamonds. Seriously?

Europe and the US does have massive pressure points;
1. cut all 90 day lines of credit to any Russian company, bank or Gazprom
2. sanctions Putin's wealth as a war criminal
3. cut all banking ties to Russian individuals, companies and Gazprom from Europe and the US

Have actually been waiting for the Ukrainians to shut off the gas flows to deny Russian cash flow and to finally pressure the EU into waking up and smelling the coffee.

Outlaw09,

I do not understand US politics within 'The Beltway' enough to even hazard a guess why President Obama and others cause you to ask such questions.

After a few moments thought recent history and strategic shifts since the end of the Cold War help to explain the personal factors involved.

The USA has gradually withdrawn from continuous engagement with Western Europe (a broad term) and has drawn down its military deployments. There has been an expectation, even after Bosnia, that Europe would remain at peace even if conflicts persisted. Now whether the Ukraine and Russia are considered to be within Europe is a moot point.

Instead the USA has been engaged heavily in the Middle East, mainly Iraq & Iran, and South Asia, mainly Afghanistan. It's energy and attention has been there. Not to overlook the complexities of countering Jihadists and the potential for an attack within the USA.

Then there is the strategic shift to the Pacific.

Above all thinking, let alone planning for a conventional war in distant Ukraine, is simply too difficult and against Russia - an 'old enemy'.

[kaur]

A Rude Awakening. Ramifications of Russian Aggression Towards Ukraine.

June 2014

http://www.foi.se/report?rNo=FOI-R--3892--SE

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw09,

I do not understand US politics within 'The Beltway' enough to even hazard a guess why President Obama and others cause you to ask such questions.

After a few moments thought recent history and strategic shifts since the end of the Cold War help to explain the personal factors involved.

The USA has gradually withdrawn from continuous engagement with Western Europe (a broad term) and has drawn down its military deployments. There has been an expectation, even after Bosnia, that Europe would remain at peace even if conflicts persisted. Now whether the Ukraine and Russia are considered to be within Europe is a moot point.

Instead the USA has been engaged heavily in the Middle East, mainly Iraq & Iran, and South Asia, mainly Afghanistan. It's energy and attention has been there. Not to overlook the complexities of countering Jihadists and the potential for an attack within the USA.

Then there is the strategic shift to the Pacific.

Above all thinking, let alone planning for a conventional war in distant Ukraine, is simply too difficult and against Russia - an 'old enemy'.

David---agree with the answers but here is the theory that has been ignored by all Presidents since 9/11.

The backbone of the US defense strategy was the ability to fight a 2 to 2.5 front war at the same time---maybe not totally effectively but have the capacity to fight the 2 to 2.5 fronts at the same time.

Here is where Russian comes in---after 1994 the US presidents "assumed" that Russia would go the way of modernizing their own economy in the attempt to provide an ever increasing standard of living for their own population which would flow from the oil/gas revenues. Which is a typical western thinking pattern.

Remember all the European slogans --peace has broken out thus we can finally reduce defense costs and invest in our internal developments and growth our economies for the global economy.

This was the argument used also by the US after Desert Storm---the first Bush promised a "peace dividend" and that is where I got my buy out---then along came 9/11 and the ramp up all over again.

But in the background was the same thoughts---all quiet on the eastern front--Russia is growing and progressing so from there no threats--so let us slowly disengage our strategic stationed armored troops and start the thin out which began almost immediately after the wall came down.

This was also the background thinking in the 80s/90s with the Reforger concept---forward depoting of equipment just fly in the troops.

But by 2012, the drawdown of personnel and bases had reached a point of no return---basically most of the bases today in say Germany provided deployment ramps for troops and equipment going to and from Iraq and AFG.

There is one Cav Bdr, one Airborne Bde and a helicopter lift/attack Bde and that is it--and that gets no ones attention thus the swing to moving aircraft in order to impress people which it does not any more these days if one watches the constant Russian provoking overflights. Besides Russia moves in S300s and the air thing is history such as in Kaliningrad, but the US AF does not mention that in their press releases.

But Obama has no strategy, no available combat power in order to project one's intent and he does not have the will for fighting if that is needed--all those red lines and statements on using air power then nothing.

That is exactly why Putin views Obama to be weak willed and afraid of his shadow in the game of power politics.

If one really reads Putin's written comments and those of his current hardliners---they hate the west and western values and feel Russian is supreme in it's quest to rejoin as a superpower---thus the ethno nationalist imperialism tunes coming out of Moscow these last three years.

Now when the Crimea and Ukraine events hit there is nothing there to project and the "theory" of a 2 to 2.5 front war is virtually non existent in DoD planning---they are lucky to be able to do 1 to 1.5 if that at all.

[OUTLAW 09]

There is something interesting developing within the UA and independent BNs---they gave ground, and the Ukrainian SF has deployed into a guerrilla fighting mode which from some comments coming in is hitting the various Russians units hard as they are spread out, not sure of the environment and confused by the messaging given them prior to the invasion and are extremely vulnerable to guerrilla attacks on small and single units. Some SF are talking about "target rich environments"---they have been around USSF to long.

It has dawned on the UA and independent BNs that by giving ground up they have shortened their lines and have to a degree really slowed down the Russian units which up to now have been mostly GRU/SF and airborne types.

The concern now is if they in fact slow down and stop these units---does Russian heavy armor then come in.

This might in fact be the case right now---there is a large number of surrounded UA/independent BNs near Donetsk that Putin offered safe conduct to and the mercenaries said only if they lay down their arms.

This pocket is well supplied with ammo and food and seems to be throwing back attack after attack by Russian airborne types and taking Russian prisoners in the process. Journalists are still getting into and back out of the pocket as of late today.

Putin was extremely surprised/actually startled that the Ukrainian military turned down the offer--IMO he does not get the fact that these UA/Independent BNs have been fighting the mercenaries and irregulars for over five months now and it is all about pride and nation not about some wild idea about "New Russia"--remember this was a rag tag group of units with little to no supplies and equipment and they have grown in capacity and abilities.

The problem is that the Russian Army might be good at fighting in large scale unit formations--but this fighting style is in small towns, villages and in various types of environments not conducive to large unit ops which is playing to the UA strengths.

There has been a solid rumor that the Russians are struggling with KIAs and WIAs from what they had assumed to be a cake walk--currently all St. Petersburg hospitals are filled to capacity with WIAs being flown out daily from the Rostov airport that was closed recently to commercial air.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.foi.se/report?rNo=FOI-R--3892--SE

kaur--the summary is correct--IMO Putin miscalculated badly as some former advisors to him have also stated just recently.

One stated he was totally taken back by the speed and depth of the sanctions as they had not seen that reaction during Georgia and Moldovia.

IMO Putin assumed wrongly the West would again roll over and go back to business as usual after several months.

Was struck by Obama stating yesterday that the West had given Putin a definitive number of face saving and exit ramps to get him out of his boxed in predicament--and he took none of them.

[OUTLAW 09]

And I thought the Iraq insurgent fighting videos were crazy to watch--watch the Russian irregulars as they fight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLT9Mif_y-o

[OUTLAW 09]

Here comes the next threat to Europe about gas in the winter--but no gas to the West also means no cash flow to Russia--a quite simple economic fact which Russians seem to have a problem in understanding.

BREAKING : Russia warns of high risk to gas deliveries to Europe this winter - Channel NewsAsia

http://cna.asia/1rE9WzY

[OUTLAW 09]

You have got to give this UK journalist his dues---he was the first to report Russian convoy going in that got badly shelled and now he is in the south.

In the last few hours @Telegraph journo @RolandOliphant drove W and NW of #Mariupol: no sign of fightings and/or Rus/(Pro)Rus units presence

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin while trying to control Ukrainian political moves towards the West has in under 24 hours basically assisted the Ukrainians in making their decisions.

1. dropping of the non aligned status
2. thus being able to apply to NATO which has signaled they would accept a request to join for review now

[OUTLAW 09]

And two more Russian prisoners were taken today near Rostov crossing.

There seems to me that the Russian Army has got to improve their map reading and tracking classes---far to many are getting "lost" inside the Ukraine.

Notice in the video---no names, rank or unit insignias---thus not Russian soldiers ---it is so easy for Putin to lie.

2 more #Russia soldiers captured in #Ukraine, say were told were going on exercises, crossed into Ukraine near Rostov

http://goo.gl/nGQBSv

[OUTLAW 09]

More armored vehicles and tanks headed to Donetsk. On one tank---written "Greetings from the Motherland"

Hidden invasion?!?
Russian army T-72 tanks, rolling towards #Ukraine marked with "#TO_DONBASS
http://youtu.be/CJm5bjM3Z5c
pic.twitter.com/a7JlFALFvH

http://youtu.be/CJm5bjM3Z5c
pic.twitter.com/1v4J8GrcBc

[OUTLAW 09]

This is Russian democracy and the rule of law at work.

When truth becomes an enemy...
Russia names assoc of soldiers' mothers - 'foreign agent'
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/506142.html

This is the fear of the FSB---mothers finding out their sons being sent to the Ukraine.

Dozens of mothers approach Soldiers' Mothers Committee, alarmed their children forced 2 sign contracts (="volunteer" 2 b sent 2 #Ukraine)

@tvrain: 200 army conscripts in Russian region bordering Ukraine being "forced to sign contracts". Assumption in order to fight in Ukr

Russian Soldiers' Mothers groups worried about 1000s of soldiers sent to Ukraine, of whom 100s returning in coffins.
pic.twitter.com/CK2qjE3H8O

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING #Russian regular army soldiers fr #Chechnya in #Donetsk region #Ukraine on August 29.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_IfvhrnwKE …

Gazeta.ru (WOW!) runs a story of 9 killed #RUS army scouts in #Ukraine inc a col. lieutenant.
http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2014/08/26/6190369.shtml …

[OUTLAW 09]

First evidence that Russia is now recruiting ethnic Russians in the Baltics---once the New Russia project is completed then next the Baltics using the same UW doctrine.

BREAKING 1st solid evidence of #Russian terrorists fr #Latvia - call sign "Vasyok" (Ludza)
pic.twitter.com/Lj5nrD1oXo
pic.twitter.com/AHUk6h54l7

[OUTLAW 09]

A great article and indicates that at a recent polling only 5% of those asked supported war in the Ukraine--goes into detail on a growing internal resistance to Russia being in the Ukraine.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/29/uk-ukraine-crisis-russia-denial-idUKKBN0GT1CB20140829

More internal pressure on Putin by Russian media:
"Bold move by @tvrain: Puts up a list of Russian soldiers recently detained or killed. "

Will be extremely interesting to see the impact in Russia after this airing of the interviews with the captured Russian paratroopers.

From that interview:
Captured Russian paratroopers don't seem to be under pressure to say that they are being treated well and want to quit the service @tvrain

Breaking: #Russia's Dozhd channel says it talked with Russian paratroopers detained in Kiev, to air at 9pm Moscow time

The Ukrainian national guard says it destroyed 2 T-72 in Ilovaisk and captured 7 more Russian soldiers.

BREAKING 2 #Russian army POWs in #Ukraine after discussing over the phone w next of kin want to denounce fr #Russian citizenship.

[OUTLAW 09]

From Moscow Military Review--concerning fighting in the Ukraine.

http://www.interpretermag.com/moscow-military-review-lists-seven-probable-targets-in-novorossiya/

Straight from the horses mouth--this is the deep reason I keep repeating--one must read everything--it is all there and in the open:

August 29 – Voyennoye Obozreniye, an online Moscow journal directed at the Russian military and military analysts, has published a list of seven targets Russian forces are likely to attack in the course of what it describes as “the probable future of the war for Novorossiya.”

Of course, which ones the Kremlin and Russian commanders will attack and in what order depends not only on Ukrainian resistance but also on the reaction of the West to Moscow’s moves. But this list itself says something about the nature and scope of Vladimir Putin’s intentions in Ukraine.

While the fighting in eastern Ukraine is intense and while not everything is going well for Russian and pro-Moscow forces, the post suggests that it is nonetheless possible to speak about “major breakouts” as it describes these actions or attacks as they would certainly be perceived by the Ukrainian side.

[OUTLAW 09]

The worst excuses Russia has given for its forces being in Ukraine

1. They were volunteers

“
There are Russian volunteers in eastern parts of Ukraine. No one is hiding that„
•Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin


2. They are from video games

Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, commenting on reports about the satellite images on Friday said previous imagery was from video games and the Nato photos “happen to be much the same quality”.

“It’s not the first time we’ve heard wild guesses, though facts have never been presented so far,” he said according to Russia Today.


3. It was an aid convoy

Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia of a “flagrant violation of international law” when its aid convoys entered Ukraine without its permission, the BBC reports.


4. It was an accident

After Ukraine said they had captured ten Russian soldiers in Ukraine, near the Russian border, Russian officials said the whole thing was a misunderstanding, reports the BBC.

“
The soldiers really did participate in a patrol of a section of the Russian-Ukrainian border, crossed it by accident on an unmarked section, and as far as we understand showed no resistance to the armed forces of Ukraine when they were detained.„
•Russian defence ministry source to Russian news agency RIA Novosti


5. They were on holiday

Pro-Russian separatist Alexander Zakharchenko claimed Russian soldiers in Ukraine were just “on holiday, the Guardian reports.

“
And moreover, I’ll say it openly, we also have current soldiers, who decided to take their holidays not on the beach, but among us. „
•Alexander Zakharchenko

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---another Russian SOF team killed west of Kiev.

BREAKING The eliminated #Russian RDG (Разведывательная-Диверсионная Группа) team 4 was killed in south.

pic.twitter.com/8IIIQQaPbJ

The #Russian RDG unit was eliminated in #Lysyche, near #Amvrosiivka, #Donetsk region, NOT west of #Kiev.

pic.twitter.com/raa1V2frZw

[OUTLAW 09]

This US journalist fully understands what Putin and his hardliners are planning for the "New Russia".

A solid article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-war-in-europe-is-not-a-hysterical-idea/2014/08/29/815f29d4-2f93-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

Some commenters here thought one could just talk with Putin as the way forward---people do have to listen to and read what comes out of Putin and his circle of advisors currently.

For example---this from September 2013:

In September 2013, when the Ukrainian authorities still discussed the prospects of signing the Association Agreement with the EU, Putin’s aide Sergey Glazyev explicitly stated that if Ukraine signed the Agreement, Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine’s status as a state and could intervene “if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Moscow”. The Ukrainian revolution that set the country on the pro-European course was a signal for Moscow to launch that Plan B.

This appears to not be the case for senior US leaders---no US strategy as of yet has been seen in the Ukrainian crisis. The WH must at some point realize the US signature on the Budapest Memorandum was an implied promise in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons--if the US fails to upload this Memorandum then what country will ever believe the US in the coming years?

From the NATO 2008 Bucharest Summit Conference:

23.NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations. We welcome the democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia and look forward to free and fair parliamentary elections in Georgia in May. MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership. Today we make clear that we support these countries’ applications for MAP. Therefore we will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both at a high political level to address the questions still outstanding pertaining to their MAP applications. We have asked Foreign Ministers to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting. Foreign Ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications of Ukraine and Georgia.

[OUTLAW 09]

I am not the only one noticing the lack of US leadership at the WH levels.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/29/is-the-u-s-enabling-putin-s-invasion.html

The senior military commanders at NATO, officials at the State Department, and, yes, even the president of the United States proved Thursday that they have a perfectly clear idea what Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing in Ukraine. They just don’t want to say the word out loud.

But by playing semantic games, the Obama administration and European leaders are playing Putin’s game. “Confusion,” as a NATO briefer explained Thursday, “is part and parcel of this Russian hybrid warfare strategy.” We are watching an invasion using subversion, coercion, and somewhat limited military action. But it’s an invasion nonetheless. And when you refuse to call things by their real names, you are not only confusing the people who hear you, you’re accepting Putin’s obfuscations. You are sending a signal that says any Western response to his actions will be inconsequential.

President Barack Obama, a very sober leader who believes deeply in the use of “soft power,” the influence of economic incentives, the building of coalitions, and, in that overall context, the usefulness of “diplomatic ambiguity” to leave as many options open as possible, clearly feels that the word “invasion” would foreclose too many of them.

Obama knows invasion is a "fightin' word," as they used to say in old Hollywood Westerns. And he knows -- and we all know -- a shootout in the Ukraine corral against the world's other great nuclear power would be beyond foolish. But under the circumstances, even such a stalwart of administration policymaking as Ivo Daalder has run out of patience with the vague language coming out of Foggy Bottom and the White House

After all, Putin has shown his imperial appetite knows no bounds, and the tactics he's used to shave off portions of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine could be turned on the NATO-member Baltics. Daalder also calls on Western countries to supply advance weapons and a steady stream of intelligence to Kiev. And finally the U.S. and the E.U. need to impose full-scale economic sanctions on Moscow.

“Let’s be clear: Russia has invaded Ukraine,” Daalder wrote in the Financial Times on Thursday. “We can debate the reasons. But we can no longer debate the fact.”

[davidbfpo]

A NATO summit next week in Wales looms and as Russia invades the Ukraine, the FT reports David Cameron will announce 'NATO to establish new rapid deployment division, 10,000 troops, UK led + 6 other countries'.

The FT report is behind a free registration 'wall' and refers to:
...Denmark, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Norway and the Netherlands. Canada has also expressed an interest in taking part.

Link:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5335d904-2f98-11e4-87d9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BoINbE86

This is nothing short of pathetic. A multi-national division, even of the 'willing' who have served together in Afghanistan and in NATO will take a long time to become effective. More "smoke & mirrors" being spun.

[Bill Moore]

A NATO summit next week in Wales looms and as Russia invades the Ukraine, the FT reports David Cameron will announce 'NATO to establish new rapid deployment division, 10,000 troops, UK led + 6 other countries'.

The FT report is behind a free registration 'wall' and refers to:

Link:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5335d904-2f98-11e4-87d9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BoINbE86

This is nothing short of pathetic. A multi-national division, even of the 'willing' who have served together in Afghanistan and in NATO will take a long time to become effective. More "smoke & mirrors" being spun.

Not only that, there will be so many national caveats that it will likely be politically impossible to deploy them rapidly if at all. I agree it appears to be smoke and mirrors and it will convince NATO themselves that they're taking action (by taking no action). Who wrote that political science isn't a science, its a dodge? I should remember, but I'm having a senior moment.

[BrentWilliams]

I am not the only one noticing the lack of US leadership at the WH levels.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/29/is-the-u-s-enabling-putin-s-invasion.html

The senior military commanders at NATO, officials at the State Department, and, yes, even the president of the United States proved Thursday that they have a perfectly clear idea what Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing in Ukraine. They just don’t want to say the word out loud.

But by playing semantic games, the Obama administration and European leaders are playing Putin’s game. “Confusion,” as a NATO briefer explained Thursday, “is part and parcel of this Russian hybrid warfare strategy.” We are watching an invasion using subversion, coercion, and somewhat limited military action. But it’s an invasion nonetheless. And when you refuse to call things by their real names, you are not only confusing the people who hear you, you’re accepting Putin’s obfuscations. You are sending a signal that says any Western response to his actions will be inconsequential.

President Barack Obama, a very sober leader who believes deeply in the use of “soft power,” the influence of economic incentives, the building of coalitions, and, in that overall context, the usefulness of “diplomatic ambiguity” to leave as many options open as possible, clearly feels that the word “invasion” would foreclose too many of them.

Obama knows invasion is a "fightin' word," as they used to say in old Hollywood Westerns. And he knows -- and we all know -- a shootout in the Ukraine corral against the world's other great nuclear power would be beyond foolish. But under the circumstances, even such a stalwart of administration policymaking as Ivo Daalder has run out of patience with the vague language coming out of Foggy Bottom and the White House

After all, Putin has shown his imperial appetite knows no bounds, and the tactics he's used to shave off portions of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine could be turned on the NATO-member Baltics. Daalder also calls on Western countries to supply advance weapons and a steady stream of intelligence to Kiev. And finally the U.S. and the E.U. need to impose full-scale economic sanctions on Moscow.

“Let’s be clear: Russia has invaded Ukraine,” Daalder wrote in the Financial Times on Thursday. “We can debate the reasons. But we can no longer debate the fact.”

They are going to go as far as Europe and no further. And Europe does seem to be set to go further. ( http://online.wsj.com/articles/eu-ministers-urge-further-pressure-on-russia-over-ukraine-1409319315 ) The big question is, what more is now on the table? Ukraine is asking for military aid. At some point, I think that is on the table. We will see.

[OUTLAW 09]

We talk a lot here about the rule of law and good governance being decided by the population involved in the decisions.

Then that population makes the choice and then is basically covered with a UW from Russia and then decides to fight back with a rag tag military/independent fighters and defend what we the US signed we would do--protect their territorial sovereignty if they gave up the single thing that would have stopped this Russian invasion--nuclear weapons the greatest equalizer.

I do believe the US did sign the Budapest Memorandum the last time I read the document.

And what do we get from US senior political leaders --"a tap dance" and five minutes worth of mentioning in a press conference.

And "a tap dance" in the future will never convince another country to sign any agreements with the US that will affect their national sovereignty.

For those that want an overview of the Independent BN "Donbas" which was the premier independent fighting BN during the last five months---currently surrounded and trapped by an actual Russian Airborne Regt the 331st--which was the last time I checked a Russian military unit inside the Ukraine which is at the least the underlying definition of an "armed invasion" and not an "incursion".

ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Can anyone here at SWJ explain to me in simple English why it is so hard for a US senior decision maker to utter the word "invasion"---at that level truth to power must be the underlying feature of a "democracy" if it even exists.

They were given basically the order yesterday evening to surrender by 0600 this morning or die and want does the US/NATO/EU "talk" and we the US just keep on "tap dancing". They have answered back we will die fighting--is that not the ultimate that a soldier can do for a population that made it's own decision concerning "the rule of law and good governance" while others simply "talk and tap dance".

"Talk" has been always cheap for the US, but when a population stands up and makes a rule of law and good governance decision effecting their own future and we stand by with absolutely no support other than "talk"/tap dance"---then it is time to tell the world that we are actually a "pipe dream" nothing more nothing less.

And that is what Putin wants---this has been about values since the beginning of the Crimea. actually back to his taking power in 2001

[OUTLAW 09]

This is an excellent video on the Russian propaganda machine---referencing Georgia but fits the Ukraine as well if one has watched the Russia info war unfold the last six months.

About one hour in length--

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8AIE7eWtSY&feature=youtu.be

[OUTLAW 09]

Something the US civilian decision makers need to understand.

Strategy--the effective use of time and space--Napoleon

[OUTLAW 09]

Definitely not what the US Army trained the Russian Peacekeeping Bde in 2012 and 2013.

Alleged leaflet, spread by "little green men" in #Novoazovsk, calling themselves "Russian army" and "peacekeepers".

pic.twitter.com/lFqn7xrzHO


@MiddleEast_BRK All of this would have been avoided if Angela Merkel hadn't blocked Ukraine & Georgia from joining Nato back in 2008. @NATO


BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking

Russia in "state of war" with #Ukraine & effectively at war with Europe, Lithuania's president says http://bbc.in/1psedVe

[OUTLAW 09]

Look who is now representing nthe Russian irregulars, Russian Army and Russian mercenaries in eastern Ukraine at the 1 Sept Minks meeting.

Purgin to represent #Donetsk People’s Republic at September 1 Minsk talks - RIA

What is interesting---while Russia "claimed" that it was always about the Ukraine joining the EU--what they really want is the EU to change their internal rules to allow for free trade for Russian products--that is the real core demand not the EU membership for the Ukraine.

BREAKING #RUS Minister of Economics threatened EU w counter measures if Europe won't bend on #Russia demands on association agreement w #UKR

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian soldiers cannot seem to understand opsec---still using social media and talking about their routes to the Ukraine.

Meanwhile #Russian regular army heading to #Ukraine is publishing its route on social network.

http://niklife.com.ua/focus/44757

pic.twitter.com/xB0JtjBpw3

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that think the Russian info war is a not a factor in molding the minds of both Russians and ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.


#Russian GRU agent Semyon Pegov & fake @lifenews_ru journalist owns an automatic weapon!
Q's?
pic.twitter.com/A2nWnXR583

[OUTLAW 09]

To place Russia in the perspective of things--ie they believe they are an economic superpower but really are a second rate developing country exporting two raw resources and that is about it.

GDP of #Russia ($2.015 trillion) vs. GDP of #California ($1.959 trillion)

pic.twitter.com/WOpF16H1Pm

[OUTLAW 09]

This is why I have said a number of times here--Putin and company are in an altered state of reality having truly believed their own propaganda. They really do believe in the new Putin Doctrine---meaning where ever ethnic Russians live Russia has a right to protect them and annex them back into the former Soviet Union.

Russia calls Poland's ban on Shoigu flight "blasphemous attack against the historical merits of those who saved EU from fascism"

Yesterday Putin even called into question of the right for Kazakhstan to continue to exist since it also has Russian citizens within their borders in his school question and answer session.

This was today the response from Kazakhstan after Putin in his school interview yesterday actually raised the questioned concerning the existence of Kazakhstan since there also ethnic Russians living there.

This is the response today by the President of Kazakhstan who was not in the least bit impressed by Putin's comments.

http://m.tengrinews.kz/en/politics_sub/Kazakhstan-may-leave-EEU-if-its-interests-are-infringed-Nazarbayev-255722/

Another example of this altered state of reality:

"Seen in #Novoazovsk :Soviet flag and flag of RU empire in one place.
pic.twitter.com/fXhKyeKLrG”"

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting article for those commenters here over the last several months that assumed one could negotiate with Putin if only one understands his complaints against the West.

The West needs to understand one cannot negotiate with a ethno neo imperialist bent on reestablishing the Soviet Union.

Taken from the Daily Beast:

Putin Mocks the West, Puts His Own Prestige on the Line

By proclaiming his support for Novorossiya, the old imperial name for eastern and southern Ukraine, Putin signals he won’t back away from the fight.

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin ratcheted up his rhetorical-historical claims on eastern Ukraine Friday, even as pro-Russian rebels and their allies among the separatist rebels pushed forward there with a new offensive.

The lead headline on the Kremlin’s own Web site declared that Putin had “addressed the Novorossiya militia,” a clear and unequivocal sign that Putin is putting his own prestige on the line to back the separatist movement. That fact will make it harder for him to back down (if he had any such inclination) and therefore much harder for an increasingly fretful Europe and the United States to come to terms with him.

The statement made it obvious Putin does not consider the southeastern regions of Ukraine to be sovereign, but sees them, still, as part of Russia’s once and future empire. Putin even offered, in a gesture of noblesse oblige, to help evacuate Ukrainian soldiers trapped by the militias and troops he supports.

Praising these pro-Russian fighters, Putin highlighted their “major success in intercepting Kiev’s military operation, which represents a grave danger to the population of Donbass [that is, eastern Ukraine] and which has already led to the loss of many lives among peaceful residents.”

After months fed a constant diet of relentless, intensive reporting and propaganda about the suffering of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, a majority of Russians now share Putin’s point of view and agree that Russia should be supporting “Novorossiya,” a shift from previously tepid Russian public support for the separatist cause. Independent social polls by the Levada Center showed that 64 percent of Russians blamed the West for the conflict in Ukraine, and 55 percent of respondents thought that Russia should be supporting pro-Russian rebel forces in the southeast.

In Mariupol soldiers are digging anti-tank trenches and mining the approaches to the town.

Later on Friday, Putin met with loyal followers at the annual Kremlin-arranged Seliger Camp, which draws tens of thousands of young people each year. The Russian president compared violence by Ukrainian forces to Nazis during World War II. Putin told the young activists that it was time for the West to realize Kiev was not capable of taking control of the eastern regions of Ukraine. Indeed, Putin mocked Western leaders: “Our partners’ position is clear to me,” he said. “’Yes, there should be talks, but in the meantime we need to let Ukrainian troops do a bit of shooting—maybe they will get the situation under control.’”

Observers, both in Russia and Ukraine, say the Novorossiya rhetoric is potentially very dangerous. Putin mentioned the word before, during the Crimea crises last spring before he annexed the strategic peninsula. But in Crimea a majority of the population wanted to live in Russia. In the southeastern regions of Ukraine Putin is confronted with a deeply divided population.

“All we really care about is that nobody bombs our homes, our schools and kindergartens,” Lyudmila Zakharenko told The Daily Beast on the central square of Sloviansk, which was once the center of pro-Russian rebel resistance. Most residents there switched their opinion from pro-Russian to pro-Ukrainian once the rebel forces were pushed out of town.

The Kremlin never bothered to find out the real support for Russian intervention among the people of Novoazovsk before it sent its troops to help take the town earlier this week. Neither has it asked the people of Mariupol, the port that seems to be next on the Russian/rebel line of march.

When Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov was asked if Purin really meant to signal his inclination to annex a large part of Ukraine, he danced around the topic. “If you look back at history, it was called Novorossiya for several hundreds of years,” said Peskov. “That’s why this is absolutely, say, the Russian name for that territory.”

People in Mariupol appear unconvinced. As the threat loomed of an imminent attack by the separatists, many Ukrainians decided not to wait for the day of annexation: middle class families packed up and moved further away, to Odessa.

Devoted Ukrainian patriots—and those who had no place to go—stayed to help the Ukrainian Ninth Battalion, the National Guards and the Dnepr-1 paramilitary force prepare to defend the city, where soldiers are digging anti-tank trenches and mining the approaches to the town.

Civil society groups, meanwhile, are training young people to provide each other with first aid. In downtown Mariupol, a seaport with a population of about half a million people, protesters came out in support of the Ukrainian government. “Mariupol is Ukraine!” read one popular sign among the demonstrators. “Where is Novorossiya?” asked another.



.

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is what is interesting about the apparent lack of US leadership and one must begin to seriously ask the question can the current national command authority actually "lead" and or think up a single "strategy"?

When dealing with the now Russia formerly the Soviet Union we see a general trend to eliminate, ignore and or invalidate memorandums, treaties, agreements that were signed by former Soviet leaders by the current Russian leader Putin--why because in his and his hardliner advisors' view of the current world these previous decisions were made under "duress" and by basically stupid Communists who did not know what they were doing.

1. Helsinki Accords---fully violated by Russia
2. INF--in fact violated and now by the US "parked" for discussions---but a violation is in fact a violation
3. OSCE agreements---Russia had to destroy over 2000 armored vehicles including T64/72/80 tanks to come into compliance--excuse after excuse provided to the OSCE and still no destruction occurs---actually the same stored tanks are now in the Ukraine
4. Budapest Memorandum ---completely violated

New Russian international relations concept referred to as the "Putin Doctrine" which basically states---where ever ethnic Russians reside is my "sphere f influence", and I can do as I want to do in order to defend them--- even annexing territory to do that.

Repeated statements made by Putin that he was going to "do" something and then it never appeared to be done---blatant lying by a national leader not seen since the 1930s.

Putin/Russian stated goals of decoupling the US from the EU/NATO, negating NATO and isolating the former Baltics and Poland, natural gas as a controlling economic weapon over Europe---negating and changing the EU to conform to Russian views of EEC.

The use of natural gas as a tactical tool to force compliance by smaller countries.

Military actions by Russia to extend their territorial boundaries since 2008.

1. Georgia
2. Moldavia
3. Crimea

Aggressive overflights of other countries and aggressive actions directed toward US/NATO surveillance in neutral zones since 2013:

1. Finland
2. Baltic Sea
3. Alaska
4. California coast

New Russian nuclear military doctrine since 2012 which in fact states---if threatened we can go to first strike without warning-- a complete reversal of the MAD principal.

Russian military practiced military nuclear strikes against Poland and the Baltics-2014

New Russian military doctrine New Generation Warfare which is basically a UW strategy in support to a political war.

1. Carried out in Crimea
2. Currently being carried out in the Ukraine where in a an eight phase process Russia is currently at phase seven of that doctrine

So when the NCA sits down at a meeting and sees this daily in his intel briefings---where is the NCA in it's thinking?

Putin has been able to thoroughly test drive his new military doctrine and the Putin Doctrine in order to physically change borders ---not done since 1945 in Europe.

So just what does the NCA think these days?

Has anyone noticed a detailed step by step prime time press conference laying out this development both to the US and global public as the underlining reasons for sanctions that would in fact truly cripple the Russian economy.

I personally am still waiting for that "painful" step that the WH said was to occur when Putin annexed the Crimea---

[OUTLAW 09]

Taken from an article in the INYT from 30 August 2014.

Notice the comments concerning the Germans which by the way blocked NATO membership for Georgia and the Ukraine in 2008 and who was the European country that pushed for the "carrot and stick" approach that has basically totally failed.

Basically the lack of US/Obama leadership and the apparent foot dragging by the German Merkel when this is all over is worth a major look at.

Did both actually "enable" and embolden Putin by their actions?

BRUSSELS — Accusing Russia of waging a campaign of “military aggression and terror” against his country, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine told European leaders here on Saturday that their own countries’ security depended on stopping Russian troops from stoking a conflict in eastern Ukraine that he said could escalate into a wider war.

His warnings won no pledges of military assistance from the European Union, but helped set the stage for a new round of sanctions against Russia. Leaders ducked an immediate decision on what new measures to take, despite agreeing that Moscow had escalated the conflict sharply in recent days. They instead asked the European Commission, the union’s executive arm, to prepare proposals for expanding existing sanctions, and said these must be ready “for consideration within a week,” according to a statement issued early Sunday.

Pro-Russian fighters near Novoazovsk, Ukraine. “Now we are fighting for all of southeastern Ukraine, for Novorossiya, which was historically a Russian province,” their commander said.

Saying that Russia was pushing the conflict in Ukraine toward “the point of no return,” the president of commission, José Manuel Barroso, said European leaders who gathered Saturday in Brussels would endorse new, tougher measures in an effort to make Moscow “come to reason.”

Some European leaders, particularly those from former Communist nations in Eastern Europe, called for direct military assistance to Ukraine’s badly stretched armed forces, which are battling pro-Russian rebels on three fronts in eastern Ukraine. But officials said a decision on military aid would be left to individual countries.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, speaking early Sunday after the meeting broke up, said that Germany “will certainly not deliver weapons, as this would give the impression that this is a conflict that can be solved militarily.” But she said further sanctions were needed, as “the situation has deteriorated considerably in the last few days,” and would be imposed “if this situation continues.”

She said it was unclear whether Russia’s actions in Ukraine constituted an invasion under international law, but added that “the sum of all the evidence we have seen so far is that Russian arms and Russian forces are operating on Ukrainian territory.” Despite her numerous phone conversations with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, she said she could not make “a final judgment” on his intentions and whether he might still try to take “further parts of the country under his control.”

Ukraine’s military said on Saturday that Russian tanks had entered and flattened a small town between the rebel-held city of Luhansk and the Russian border.

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is what is interesting about the apparent lack of US leadership and one must begin to seriously ask the question can the current national command authority actually "lead" and or think up a single "strategy"?

When dealing with the now Russia formerly the Soviet Union we see a general trend to eliminate, ignore and or invalidate memorandums, treaties, agreements that were signed by former Soviet leaders by the current Russian leader Putin--why because in his and his hardliner advisors' view of the current world these previous decisions were made under "duress" and by basically stupid Communists who did not know what they were doing.

1. Helsinki Accords---fully violated by Russia
2. INF--in fact violated and now by the US "parked" for discussions---but a violation is in fact a violation
3. OSCE agreements---Russia had to destroy over 2000 armored vehicles including T64/72/80 tanks to come into compliance--excuse after excuse provided to the OSCE and still no destruction occurs---actually the same stored tanks are now in the Ukraine
4. Budapest Memorandum ---completely violated

New Russian international relations concept referred to as the "Putin Doctrine" which basically states---where ever ethnic Russians reside is my "sphere f influence", and I can do as I want to do in order to defend them--- even annexing territory to do that.

Repeated statements made by Putin that he was going to "do" something and then it never appeared to be done---blatant lying by a national leader not seen since the 1930s.

Putin/Russian stated goals of decoupling the US from the EU/NATO, negating NATO and isolating the former Baltics and Poland, natural gas as a controlling economic weapon over Europe---negating and changing the EU to conform to Russian views of EEC.

The use of natural gas as a tactical tool to force compliance by smaller countries.

Military actions by Russia to extend their territorial boundaries since 2008.

1. Georgia
2. Moldavia
3. Crimea

Aggressive overflights of other countries and aggressive actions directed toward US/NATO surveillance in neutral zones since 2013:

1. Finland
2. Baltic Sea
3. Alaska
4. California coast

New Russian nuclear military doctrine since 2012 which in fact states---if threatened we can go to first strike without warning-- a complete reversal of the MAD principal.

Russian military practiced military nuclear strikes against Poland and the Baltics-2014

New Russian military doctrine New Generation Warfare which is basically a UW strategy in support to a political war.

1. Carried out in Crimea
2. Currently being carried out in the Ukraine where in a an eight phase process Russia is currently at phase seven of that doctrine

So when the NCA sits down at a meeting and sees this daily in his intel briefings---where is the NCA in it's thinking?

Putin has been able to thoroughly test drive his new military doctrine and the Putin Doctrine in order to physically change borders ---not done since 1945 in Europe.

So just what does the NCA think these days?

Has anyone noticed a detailed step by step prime time press conference laying out this development both to the US and global public as the underlining reasons for sanctions that would in fact truly cripple the Russian economy.

I personally am still waiting for that "painful" step that the WH said was to occur when Putin annexed the Crimea---

In order to full see where and how Putin is slowly but surely rebuilding the Soviet Union check his comments at the school during an interview when he references the Kazahkstan and the implied statement there are also Russians there and Kazahkstan was "never" a country.

Secondly, when the EU states we are thinking about sanctions in say a week---how far can the Russian troops backing the Russian mercenaries go inside eastern/southern Ukraine in a week? What Odessa or up to Kaliningrad?

Does anyone in the National Command Authority understand that by not responding immediately to Russian and Putin statements and actions it just "fuels" their belief's that the West is weak, decadent and Russia is all powerful? This is about perception pure and simple.

Thirdly, in the current "frozen war scenarios" of Georgia and Moldavia and now eastern/southern Ukraine where the Russian Army lands it does not leave so again exactly how are sanctions going to work?---in what 1,3 or 5 years---it has been six years since Georgia and has anyone seen a settlement lately?

Lastly, if one does not "believe" or want to believe that has been an "invasion" then what was the report today from a Russian journalist in the Donetsk stating he has seen and talked to Russian Army officers and soldiers who have moved into apartments in the city---any yet the President spends only five minutes of time in a press conference on the Ukraine?

By the way the US stated "incursion" which implies that the aggressor does in fact pull back out---what is then the word when the aggressor remains in the country, continues to kill people and occupies for the long haul apartments---what a military on "vacation" in a strange and new location?

[OUTLAW 09]

A good example of the "altered state of reality" of Russian oligarchs, Putin and the Russian ultra nationalists.

Annexing the Crimea and sending Russian troops and heavy weapons into the Ukraine is not war or an invasion or even an incursion, subtle threat implied in Putins' comments against the Kazahkstan is not a threat, tactual nuclear strike exercises against Poland and the Baltics are just exercises not a threat.

BUT leveling sanctions against Russia and Russian business's is "war" and increases hate.

Interesting thought patterns.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ukraine-krise-rosneft-chef-igor-setschin-verspricht-gas-lieferung-a-988994.html

[BrentWilliams]

Here is what is interesting about the apparent lack of US leadership and one must begin to seriously ask the question can the current national command authority actually "lead" and or think up a single "strategy"?

When dealing with the now Russia formerly the Soviet Union we see a general trend to eliminate, ignore and or invalidate memorandums, treaties, agreements that were signed by former Soviet leaders by the current Russian leader Putin--why because in his and his hardliner advisors' view of the current world these previous decisions were made under "duress" and by basically stupid Communists who did not know what they were doing.

1. Helsinki Accords---fully violated by Russia
2. INF--in fact violated and now by the US "parked" for discussions---but a violation is in fact a violation
3. OSCE agreements---Russia had to destroy over 2000 armored vehicles including T64/72/80 tanks to come into compliance--excuse after excuse provided to the OSCE and still no destruction occurs---actually the same stored tanks are now in the Ukraine
4. Budapest Memorandum ---completely violated

New Russian international relations concept referred to as the "Putin Doctrine" which basically states---where ever ethnic Russians reside is my "sphere f influence", and I can do as I want to do in order to defend them--- even annexing territory to do that.

Repeated statements made by Putin that he was going to "do" something and then it never appeared to be done---blatant lying by a national leader not seen since the 1930s.

Putin/Russian stated goals of decoupling the US from the EU/NATO, negating NATO and isolating the former Baltics and Poland, natural gas as a controlling economic weapon over Europe---negating and changing the EU to conform to Russian views of EEC.

The use of natural gas as a tactical tool to force compliance by smaller countries.

Military actions by Russia to extend their territorial boundaries since 2008.

1. Georgia
2. Moldavia
3. Crimea

Aggressive overflights of other countries and aggressive actions directed toward US/NATO surveillance in neutral zones since 2013:

1. Finland
2. Baltic Sea
3. Alaska
4. California coast

New Russian nuclear military doctrine since 2012 which in fact states---if threatened we can go to first strike without warning-- a complete reversal of the MAD principal.

Russian military practiced military nuclear strikes against Poland and the Baltics-2014

New Russian military doctrine New Generation Warfare which is basically a UW strategy in support to a political war.

1. Carried out in Crimea
2. Currently being carried out in the Ukraine where in a an eight phase process Russia is currently at phase seven of that doctrine

So when the NCA sits down at a meeting and sees this daily in his intel briefings---where is the NCA in it's thinking?

Putin has been able to thoroughly test drive his new military doctrine and the Putin Doctrine in order to physically change borders ---not done since 1945 in Europe.

So just what does the NCA think these days?

Has anyone noticed a detailed step by step prime time press conference laying out this development both to the US and global public as the underlining reasons for sanctions that would in fact truly cripple the Russian economy.

I personally am still waiting for that "painful" step that the WH said was to occur when Putin annexed the Crimea---

The strategy on Ukraine is pretty clear. Economic isolation of Russia in partnership with the EU. Rather you agree with that is another issue. However, what we are doing is clear.

[OUTLAW 09]

The strategy on Ukraine is pretty clear. Economic isolation of Russia in partnership with the EU. Rather you agree with that is another issue. However, what we are doing is clear.

BW---about as clear as muddy water these days after a rain in the eastern part of the Ukraine.

If you read the statement today Putin gave on the Ukraine where he called for the creation of the Ukrainian statehood of "New Russia"----a number of times.

Then within the hours after his statements his press manager attempted "to walk back that term New Russia".

That is a red flag for the Ukrainians and Europe.

But BW---here is the issue--Putin never has a "slip" or "Freudian slip"--he simply speaks what he thinks and does not hide that.

Sanctions will not even cause him to blink must less pull his troops out of the Ukraine and or Crimea.

This was taken from an article that the INYTs wrote about that speech.

Notice how many times his press manager uses the same term that Putin allegedly "slipped up on"---New Russian.

Putin's use of the word "statehood" was interpreted in Western media as implying backing for the rebel demand of independence, something Moscow has so far stopped short of publicly endorsing.

However, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no new endorsement from Moscow for rebel independence. Asked if "New Russia", a term pro-Moscow rebels use for their territory, should still be part of Ukraine, Peskov said: "Of course."

"Only Ukraine can reach an agreement with New Russia, taking into account the interests of New Russia, and this is the only way to reach a political settlement."

Rebels have rallied behind the term "New Russia" since Putin first used it in a public appearance in April. Putin called it a tsarist-era term for land that now forms southern and eastern Ukraine. Ukrainians consider the term deeply offensive and say it reveals Moscow's imperial designs on their territory.

BW---the only sanctions that will get Putin's immediate and swift attention are;

1. cut off of Russian companies and individuals from SWIFT
2. cut of all US/EU/Swiss 90 day lines of credit to all Russian companies
3. cut off all selling of Russian sovereign debt by US/EU/Swiss banks
4. cut off of all Russian companies to all EU/US/Swiss capital markets

[OUTLAW 09]

The strategy on Ukraine is pretty clear. Economic isolation of Russia in partnership with the EU. Rather you agree with that is another issue. However, what we are doing is clear.

BW---if in fact the strategy is as clear as muddy water then explain to me and the rest of the commenters---is in fact the sinking of naval vessels of one country by the air force of another country in territorial waters of the first country---is what an "incursion", a "vacation", an "invasion" or simply all out warfare---- what we in the West would if not using a really thick dictionary---simply "war".

If after watching this YouTube video of the attack and sinking by the Russian Air Force of two Ukrainian naval vessels---tell me and the other commenters---sanctions are working ....right?

And that is the great "strategy"?

#BREAKINGNEWS RUSSIAN AIR FORCE JETS ATTACK UKRAINIAN COAST GUARD SHIP NEAR #MARIUPOL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9YlU06zu7s … pic.twitter.com/jkO4oNhrur

#Russia'n airstrikes destroyed
two #Ukraine coast guard vessels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjyLFg61UIA

BW---you cannot really believe that the current sanctions are working and they will cause Putin to what--- negotiate?

[OUTLAW 09]

BW--first Putin gives a TV interview clearly stating in the recorded event the term "New Russia and statehood", then his press manger pedals backwards as fast as he could denying it was said so , then the RIA rushes this statement into the media as fast as they could.

Again Putin does not make "slips of the tongue".

Really worth reading to understand the current Russian "altered state of reality".

CHELYABINSK, August 31 (RIA Novosti) – Russian President Vladimir Putin in his Sunday’s interview called for inclusive negotiations inside Ukraine, not granting statehood to Novorossiya, the union of Donetsk and Luhansk republics in the east of the country, the Russian leader’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

"The inclusive negotiations, which should determine the relationships [of Kiev] with eastern regions, that is, negotiations inside Ukraine on the internal Ukrainian order with respect for the interests of the country’s eastern regions, the interests of Novorossiya - the way, extent and mechanisms of this process. That’s what the president meant," Peskov said.

The Kremlin spokesperson added that giving some status to Novorossia was totally out of the question, which “becomes clear after reading the president’s statement.”

BUT both Putin and his press manager uses the tern "statehood".

“The president, as a matter of fact, was referring to the need of the inclusive talks, the earliest beginning of which had been emphasized way back in documents and signed in various formats, including the document signed by foreign ministers in Berlin,” Peskov added.

Earlier in the day, Putin talked about Ukraine in an interview with Russia’s Channel One television channel. The president called on Kiev to start substantial talks on deescalating the crisis in Ukraine, cease hostilities and start infrastructure rehabilitation works in southeastern regions to prevent winter deaths.

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting comment by a Ukrainian blogger that is if one really thinks about it---correct and goes a long way in explaining the lack of action by the US, Germany, UK, France towards Russia.

The West disarmed #Ukraine via the Budapest Memorandum. Arming it now means admitting the failure of a 'liberal international order'.

Let's admit it--disarming the third strongest nuclear power behind the US and Russia was the actual driver for the Budapest Memo not the defense of the Ukrainian sovereignty. Kind of a typical Mafia move in eliminating a nuclear competitor.

The Germans are attempting to hang onto the NATO Russian Accord from 1997 thus their unwillingness to expand any NATO bases/forces eastwards and they fear the Reunification 4 plus 2 agreements to be in danger as well if they challenge Russia ---not to count the loss of business.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sometimes we need to go back and reread the commitments made by the three major signatories to the Budapest Memorandum that was signed by the US, UK and Russian with China and France committing to lesser points.

According to the memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, in recognition of Ukraine becoming party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia, that they would:
1.Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.
2.Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
3.Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
4.Seek United Nations Security Council action if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine.
5.Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.
6.Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments.

Since Russia has violated points 1, 2, 3, and they definitely did not consult with the other signatories prior to annexing the Crimea and marching troops and heavy weapons into eastern and southern Ukraine.

I ask again why then the massive reluctance to call Russia's action not an "invasion" and why not even harder sanctions independent of the EU which did not sign the Memorandum?

Notice this:

The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated as a political agreement. It refers to assurances, not defined, but less than a military guarantee of intervention.

So in fact Obama has indicated no US troops are to be involved---but when the Ukraine needs weapons, intel, and trainers in order to defend themselves using their own troops---why then does the US refrain and tap dance on weapons/intel deliveries while at the same time driving to get weapons into Iraq which the last time I checked the IS is not a strategic threat.

What ---fear of triggering Putin---from his actions he does not seem to care what is done as long as he achieves his defined end state---a "New Russia", a weakening of the Ukraine, pulling the Ukraine back into the EEC, the splitting of the US from the EU, the defeat of perceived decadent liberal Western values, and the weakening of NATO.

Seems like Russia has delivered weapons, fighters/military personnel, and money in to the Ukraine in effect placing themselves in violation of the agreements and the West is what to do what--refrain?

Since Putin has achieved his medium goals of getting Russian boots on the ground inside the Ukraine as he did in Georgia and Moldavia---just what is he going to give up via negotiations? They are still negotiating in Georgia and Moldavia the last time I checked and it has been six years and still nothing?

Well it took 45 years for the Wall to come down--- maybe in another 45 years the Ukraine issue might be resolved and the Wall coming-- took no negotiations.

[Dayuhan]

Yesterday Putin even called into question of the right for Kazakhstan to continue to exist since it also has Russian citizens within their borders in his school question and answer session.

This was today the response from Kazakhstan after Putin in his school interview yesterday actually raised the questioned concerning the existence of Kazakhstan since there also ethnic Russians living there.

This is the response today by the President of Kazakhstan who was not in the least bit impressed by Putin's comments.

http://m.tengrinews.kz/en/politics_sub/Kazakhstan-may-leave-EEU-if-its-interests-are-infringed-Nazarbayev-255722/

If Russia tries to take a bite at Kazakhstan the Kazakhs will likely be looking to the east for support, not to the west, and they are likely to get it. China has a significant and rising presence there, and has made Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan central pillars in the campaign for access to oil and gas that doesn't have to pass through marine space outside their sphere of influence.

Kazakhstan's Russian population is concentrated in the north, along the border... not where the oil is, but I wouldn't bet on the Kazakhs letting it go easily.

Potentially an interesting situation, though not one that would necessarily involve the US.

[Petkov]

Just found this and im not really impresed. Friom the mofderator's name "AmericanPride" it's easily to se this will be anti-Putin "discussion".

to begin with USA has lied and lied and lied for the last 20 years. Let's list some of the insolent lies USA has said:

insolent lies USA has used in the last decade to start up wars:

1990 babies taken out of incubators and left to die on cold hospital floor
1990-1999 Saddam working on nuclear weapons
2001 Osama engineered and did 9-11
2001-2003 Saddam has ties with Ali Queda
2001-2003 Saddam has weapons of mass distraction (Colin Powell, Bush jr, Cheney, Condy Rice, etc)
2002-2203 Saddam working on weapons of mass distraction
2002-2003 Saddam working on acquiring nuclear weapons
2001 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2001 Iran has ties with Ali Queda
2002 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2003 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2004 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2005 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2006 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2007 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2008 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2009 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2010 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2011 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2012 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2013 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2013 Assad gassed his own people (part 1)
2013 Assad gassed his own people (part 2)
2014 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2014 Assad gassed his own people (part 3)

USA has always lied. Gulf of Tonkin incident that started the Vietnam war was a lie. 9-11 official story is a lie. Lying about Putin and Russia is just more lies.

Now, Ukraine claimed 3 weeks ago it destroyed Russian tanks but we never saw any photos. More lies. MH17 plane story was shelved because the evidence contradicts what USA?Ukraine claimed.

Ukraine kept on claiming Russia attack day after day after day. Fuzzy "photos" dont amount to evidence. Even CNN cannot find the tanks.
Lies and ies and and more lies.

But now if we are gonna speak about truth, let's speak about the petrodollar and about the BRICs. The BRICKs got together to make a bank and MH17 plane got shut down. What AN amazing coincidence indeed.
The Ukraine "war" is nothing more than the continuation of imperial was USA has been doing in the last 20 years.

So USA can bomb or invade and occupy or harass ANY country in the world they want to but Russia cannot place its military where they want to WITHIN their own borders.
So USA can go and arm militants in Syria but Russia cannot do the same thing in Iraq.

it's NOT Russia but USA who attacked Iraq in 1990.
It's NOT Russia but USA who bombed Iraq during the 1990s.
Its' NOT Russia but USA who lied Iraq had imaginary "weapons of mass distraction" during 2001-2003.
It's NOT Russia but USA who attacked and occupied Iraq in 20013.
It's NOT Russia but USA who attacked and occupied Afghanistan in 2001
It's NOT Russia but USA who has attacked and bombed Pakistan, Yemen, Syria, Lybia, Sudan, etc, etc,

Indeed, Facts are stupid things like Ronnie said.
Last but not least, "America" has NOTHING to be proud of. American claimed it had something called "democracy" but it used slaves. American ethnic cleansed Native Americans and some studied have placed the number of Native Americans exterminated as high as 10 -15 or 20 million. Yet America still claims to be "freedom and democracy". Blacks still had to fight in 1960s to get equal rights yet America claims to have "freedom".

If I was an American I wouldnt be proud, I'd be deeply ashamed to be an American. But then Goodness Im not.

PS. If you are gonna argue with me, first reply to my points about lying and how can USA justify all its lies and how can you people here agree to all the lies before giving me some facts about some obscure points. And arent you ashamed your government has made monkies out of you with all its lies? I'd be.

PPS Im STILL waiting for them "weapons of mass distraction" USA promised will be found in Iraq. How long do I have to wait, huh?

[carl]

Petkov:

Are you Mirhond's replacement? Is he ok? He didn't get fired then drafted or anything did he?

[BrentWilliams]

BW--first Putin gives a TV interview clearly stating in the recorded event the term "New Russia and statehood", then his press manger pedals backwards as fast as he could denying it was said so , then the RIA rushes this statement into the media as fast as they could.

Again Putin does not make "slips of the tongue".

Really worth reading to understand the current Russian "altered state of reality".

CHELYABINSK, August 31 (RIA Novosti) – Russian President Vladimir Putin in his Sunday’s interview called for inclusive negotiations inside Ukraine, not granting statehood to Novorossiya, the union of Donetsk and Luhansk republics in the east of the country, the Russian leader’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

"The inclusive negotiations, which should determine the relationships [of Kiev] with eastern regions, that is, negotiations inside Ukraine on the internal Ukrainian order with respect for the interests of the country’s eastern regions, the interests of Novorossiya - the way, extent and mechanisms of this process. That’s what the president meant," Peskov said.

The Kremlin spokesperson added that giving some status to Novorossia was totally out of the question, which “becomes clear after reading the president’s statement.”

BUT both Putin and his press manager uses the tern "statehood".

“The president, as a matter of fact, was referring to the need of the inclusive talks, the earliest beginning of which had been emphasized way back in documents and signed in various formats, including the document signed by foreign ministers in Berlin,” Peskov added.

Earlier in the day, Putin talked about Ukraine in an interview with Russia’s Channel One television channel. The president called on Kiev to start substantial talks on deescalating the crisis in Ukraine, cease hostilities and start infrastructure rehabilitation works in southeastern regions to prevent winter deaths.

Putin's goal isn't the issue. His policy goal has always been pretty clear. His methods are terrible. It is a lesson in how to maximaze damage to oneself. Whatever the result from this, Russia is still a weaker state once it is all done.

[OUTLAW 09]

Just found this and im not really impresed. Friom the mofderator's name "AmericanPride" it's easily to se this will be anti-Putin "discussion".

To all--this is a perfect example in the purest form of what a RUSSIAN Troll looks like, acts like, and actually thinks---actually a perfect example of "an altered state of reality".

Petov---why have you not be drafted and sent as a contractor to the Ukraine?

Will be interesting to see how SWJ treats this--other blog sites simply block them and spread the used name around the various sites to block as well.

And that has been extremely effective.

Troll based on the rant, style of rant and the fact that he just joined.

carl---have been wondering where mirhond is as well---but he must have been pulled as being ineffective so they go to the ranting and raving mode. Since their invasion the pace of troll activity has skyrocketed immensely.

Petrov--let's see;

1. Russian violation of the Helsinkii Accords
2. Russian violations of the INF
3. Russian violations of the OSCE
4. Russian misuse of the ICRC Red Cross flags and name
5. Russian violation of the Budapest Memorandum

And oh the invasions of Georgia, Moldavia, Crimea and eastern /southern Ukraine since 2008.

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin's goal isn't the issue. His policy goal has always been pretty clear. His methods are terrible. It is a lesson in how to maximaze damage to oneself. Whatever the result from this, Russia is still a weaker state once it is all done.

BW--again you miss the mark---what Putin has done starting a year or so before Crimea--he has implemented the new Russian military doctrine of UW in support to political warfare first in the Crimea which went rarely well for him and then in eastern and southern Ukraine which did not go so well.

Really reread the new eight phase doctrine and then come back and let me know exactly what phase he is in and you will see he is not stumbling and bumbling along.

Now the doctrine what I first called here as the Putin Doctrine and so commenters did not like it and now an accepted term has been written first in their own internal articles, then exercised and then implemented---so from his point of view he has been rather successful if you ask me.
The only way now to stop the Putin Doctrine from ever occurring again is in fact to stop it and if sanctions do not work then one steps up the leverage next being the supplying of weapons and heavy equipment and if that does not work then on to actual force.

Putin is his school interview basically stated he is going to expand the Putin doctrine to Kazahkstan--which pushed back immediately.

See right now the world only "hears" words from the US/NATO/EU but sees no "actions"---therein lies the big mistake for actions always speak louder than words.

[OUTLAW 09]

Petrov---here is a perfect example of the Russian "altered state of reality"---read closely comrade.


Russia has a history of offering humanitarian corridors to troops and then ambushing and killing of them---check Petrov your own history before you rant here.

Ukrainian statement to the shooting at the "humanitarian corridor killing even captured Russian soldiers---notice Petrov "captured Russian soldiers".

In the convoy of the ATO Forces, which was cowardly shot at by Russian troops during the passage by the so-called «humanitarian corridor», were dozens of captured Russian paratroopers. Some soldiers were killed during the shelling. An aide of the governor of the Dnipropetrivsk region Boris Filatov wrote about this on his Facebook page.

«Russians gave a word of the officer that they will let them pass. But started to fire. The point is not even in the word. There were dozens of captured Russian paratroopers in our convoy, some were wounded. They were also killed. Russia, you can continue to be silent,» — he wrote.

Filatov assures that there were no militants in the area where the convoy was passing, there was only Russian army there.

Russian Foreign Ministry statement to events in the "humanitarian corridor".

© AP Photo/ Sergei Grits

Kiev Reluctance to Use Humanitarian Corridors Shows How They Value Soldiers Lives - Moscow

By refusing to use humanitarian corridors in eastern Ukraine, Kiev authorities showed how they value lives of their soldiers, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s special representative for human rights, Konstantin Dolgov, said Sunday.

And that is not a Russian "altered state of reality"?

So if you cannot trust a Russian field commander how can one trust what Putin states?

[BrentWilliams]

BW--again you miss the mark---what Putin has done starting a year or so before Crimea--he has implemented the new Russian military doctrine of UW in support to political warfare first in the Crimea which went rarely well for him and then in eastern and southern Ukraine which did not go so well.

Really reread the new eight phase doctrine and then come back and let me know exactly what phase he is in and you will see he is not stumbling and bumbling along.

Now the doctrine what I first called here as the Putin Doctrine and so commenters did not like it and now an accepted term has been written first in their own internal articles, then exercised and then implemented---so from his point of view he has been rather successful if you ask me.
The only way now to stop the Putin Doctrine from ever occurring again is in fact to stop it and if sanctions do not work then one steps up the leverage next being the supplying of weapons and heavy equipment and if that does not work then on to actual force.

Putin is his school interview basically stated he is going to expand the Putin doctrine to Kazahkstan--which pushed back immediately.

See right now the world only "hears" words from the US/NATO/EU but sees no "actions"---therein lies the big mistake for actions always speak louder than words.

He has used a UW campaign. I agree with that. However, he has used it in a way that as been overt and dragged Europe into deeper economic sanctions that will have lasting harm on Russia. He is doing it in a way in which his objectives may not be attained and he has alienated the population of East Ukraine. He has put things on the table for the West, actual military aid, that I never thought would be.

This is for an objective he could have seized in a week and faced a few screams from the west?

[OUTLAW 09]

He has used a UW campaign. I agree with that. However, he has used it in a way that as been overt and dragged Europe into deeper economic sanctions that will have lasting harm on Russia. He is doing it in a way in which his objectives may not be attained and he has alienated the population of East Ukraine. He has put things on the table for the West, actual military aid, that I never thought would be.

This is for an objective he could have seized in a week and faced a few screams from the west?

BW---it is far deeper than UW--and by the way you did notice that the Russian soldiers are in fact defense contractors so therefore he can actually argue which he does "there are no Russian soldiers in the Ukraine"--notice no one asks the question well what about defense contractors---he would not answer it anyway as you will notice he does when the questions get to close to the reality.

By the way the use of defense contracting "companies" are part and parcel of his new UW strategy which was published for all to see and read in 2013.

This is an excellent article by the current Director of the Carnegie Center Moscow and goes to what he is calling the New Russian National Strategy going forward which is interesting if one matches it to the New Generation Warfare and the New Russian Nuclear Strategy from late 2012.

http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=4263&utm_content=buffer82ad8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#top

There is a paragraph that grabbed my attention like a red flag---Stalin once told a high level group of Soviet Communist Party members in 1939 after the German/Russian agreements---roughly the following---yes we will sign agreements and yes we will hold to them--BUT if it goes against us then we will ignore them.

Russia will also feel free to withdraw from international treaties and agreements if it concludes that they no longer serve its national interests. In particular, this may apply to the 1987 U.S.-Soviet Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned both countries from having a whole class of missile systems, but left the rest of the world free to arm itself with them. Likewise, Russian participation in the European Court of Human Rights is in danger: Moscow considers the court to be too politicized. Neither decision has been taken yet, but warnings have been served. Note: right after the US pointed out the Russian INF violation they complained 1) the accusations should have been in private and not for the world to hear and 2) a top active duty Russian General stated the treaty does us no good---let's simply leave it.

Russia joined all these international organizations to in fact defend themselves and to use them for their own benefit but has since the Crimea they have seen that they can be used against them---ie the Yukos decision, the pending decision in Stockholm on Gazprom's Ukrainian gas price fixing and the lack of support from the WTO against the sanctions.

Read the paragraph---then the questions begs to be asked---what has changed inside Russia in 2014 that was not already there in 1939? Or is basically Russia just a continuation of the Soviet Union just under a new name?

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting from NATO Commander---and still the US and others use the term "incursion":

According to NATO’s commanding General Philip Breedlove, Russia’s troops can seize southern and eastern Ukraine within three to five days


Lysenko in Kiev: "According to our data, there are no fewer than four (Russian) battalion-tactical groups in #Ukraine." 400 men in each.

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that do not think Putin is in an "altered state of reality". Some would say he has been smoking to much pot lately others would say he has begun to believe his own propaganda---which is far more dangerous than pot smoking.

BREAKING: "If I want, I will take Kiev in two weeks," Putin tells EU President Barroso in a phonecon.

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/ukraine/alle-nachrichten-zur-aktuellen-lage-in-der-ukraine-37486054.bild.html

Couple that with his statements questioning the legality of Kazakhstan and the declaration of "New Russia" for southeastern Ukraine and now you have "an altered state of reality".

By the way Russian history book publishers announced last week in Moscow they are adding a chapter with maps on the history of "New Russia".

[BrentWilliams]

BW---if in fact the strategy is as clear as muddy water then explain to me and the rest of the commenters---is in fact the sinking of naval vessels of one country by the air force of another country in territorial waters of the first country---is what an "incursion", a "vacation", an "invasion" or simply all out warfare---- what we in the West would if not using a really thick dictionary---simply "war".

If after watching this YouTube video of the attack and sinking by the Russian Air Force of two Ukrainian naval vessels---tell me and the other commenters---sanctions are working ....right?

And that is the great "strategy"?

#BREAKINGNEWS RUSSIAN AIR FORCE JETS ATTACK UKRAINIAN COAST GUARD SHIP NEAR #MARIUPOL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9YlU06zu7s … pic.twitter.com/jkO4oNhrur

#Russia'n airstrikes destroyed
two #Ukraine coast guard vessels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjyLFg61UIA

BW---you cannot really believe that the current sanctions are working and they will cause Putin to what--- negotiate?

Calling it not an invasion doesn't mean we don't have a strategy. It means that we are trying to allow Russia the ability to walk this back. Disagreement with a strategy is not the same thing as not having one.

[OUTLAW 09]

Calling it not an invasion doesn't mean we don't have a strategy. It means that we are trying to allow Russia the ability to walk this back. Disagreement with a strategy is not the same thing as not having one.

BW--like your thoughts but you tend to overlook the oblivious.

I have counted using both the EU and US offers roughly six different "off ramps" and "three trial balloons solutions" in order to "help" Putin "save face" or "find an exit".

Have you seen him take those offers--if in fact he was even interested--I for one have not.

One of the remaining serious Russian political scientists with a following in the West stated today in Moscow---Putin has made a clear decision and that is to create the "New Russia"---end of story

In fact the more the West offers in "face saving" the more he doubles down -ie four major aggressive political statements in less than four days all of which are aggressive in tone/word and focused against the Ukraine, the West, and Kazakhstan.

Does that sound like he really wants "an off ramp"?

Again go back and reread his New Generation Warfare and do the same for the topic "political warfare" and you will see where he is coming from---he is definitely not looking for "an off ramp".

If anything it is the US.EU/NATO trying desperately to "find the off ramp" before they have to truly get serious about his aggression in central Europe.

Come on BW---ego or serious threat when Putin tells the EU President he can be in Kiev in two weeks?

I would modify the Russian stance "of it ain't me" sending troops money and mercenaries into the Ukraine to "it ain't about my ego or me not understanding my own strategy".

This is the difference between Putin and say the entire West right now---he has a strategy with an end state and he is executing it to a T---the West has absolutely nothing and that includes this current President and sanctions in itself does not a strategy make.

[BrentWilliams]

BW--like your thoughts but you tend to overlook the oblivious.

I have counted using both the EU and US offers roughly six different "off ramps" and "three trial balloons solutions" in order to "help" Putin "save face" or "find an exit".

Have you seen him take those offers--if in fact he was even interested--I for one have not.

One of the remaining serious Russian political scientists with a following in the West stated today in Moscow---Putin has made a clear decision and that is to create the "New Russia"---end of story

In fact the more the West offers in "face saving" the more he doubles down -ie four major aggressive political statements in less than four days all of which are aggressive in tone/word and focused against the Ukraine, the West, and Kazakhstan.

Does that sound like he really wants "an off ramp"?

Again go back and reread his New Generation Warfare and do the same for the topic "political warfare" and you will see where he is coming from---he is definitely not looking for "an off ramp".

If anything it is the US.EU/NATO trying desperately to "find the off ramp" before they have to truly get serious about his aggression in central Europe.

Come on BW---ego or serious threat when Putin tells the EU President he can be in Kiev in two weeks?

I would modify the Russian stance "of it ain't me" sending troops money and mercenaries into the Ukraine to "it ain't about my ego or me not understanding my own strategy".

This is the difference between Putin and say the entire West right now---he has a strategy with an end state and he is executing it to a T---the West has absolutely nothing and that includes this current President and sanctions in itself does not a strategy make.

I don't think he wants an off ramp, but if your key constraint is Europe, it doesn't hurt any to say that. It allows Europe to build a consensus. And rather he gains "new Russia" or not, an economically isolated Russia is not a threat to Europe or the United States. It is more of a threat to Putin. Maintaining and training a modern military requires a modern economy.

[BrentWilliams]

BW---it is far deeper than UW--and by the way you did notice that the Russian soldiers are in fact defense contractors so therefore he can actually argue which he does "there are no Russian soldiers in the Ukraine"--notice no one asks the question well what about defense contractors---he would not answer it anyway as you will notice he does when the questions get to close to the reality.

By the way the use of defense contracting "companies" are part and parcel of his new UW strategy which was published for all to see and read in 2013.

This is an excellent article by the current Director of the Carnegie Center Moscow and goes to what he is calling the New Russian National Strategy going forward which is interesting if one matches it to the New Generation Warfare and the New Russian Nuclear Strategy from late 2012.

http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=4263&utm_content=buffer82ad8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#top

There is a paragraph that grabbed my attention like a red flag---Stalin once told a high level group of Soviet Communist Party members in 1939 after the German/Russian agreements---roughly the following---yes we will sign agreements and yes we will hold to them--BUT if it goes against us then we will ignore them.

Russia will also feel free to withdraw from international treaties and agreements if it concludes that they no longer serve its national interests. In particular, this may apply to the 1987 U.S.-Soviet Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned both countries from having a whole class of missile systems, but left the rest of the world free to arm itself with them. Likewise, Russian participation in the European Court of Human Rights is in danger: Moscow considers the court to be too politicized. Neither decision has been taken yet, but warnings have been served. Note: right after the US pointed out the Russian INF violation they complained 1) the accusations should have been in private and not for the world to hear and 2) a top active duty Russian General stated the treaty does us no good---let's simply leave it.

Russia joined all these international organizations to in fact defend themselves and to use them for their own benefit but has since the Crimea they have seen that they can be used against them---ie the Yukos decision, the pending decision in Stockholm on Gazprom's Ukrainian gas price fixing and the lack of support from the WTO against the sanctions.

Read the paragraph---then the questions begs to be asked---what has changed inside Russia in 2014 that was not already there in 1939? Or is basically Russia just a continuation of the Soviet Union just under a new name?

What has he gained from a strategy of deniability that no one actually believes? What would have been the result of simply seizing Eastern Ukraine and Crimea when this started?

[OUTLAW 09]

What has he gained from a strategy of deniability that no one actually believes? What would have been the result of simply seizing Eastern Ukraine and Crimea when this started?

BW--it is not what he gains but what he can "sell" and right now he is selling the story "it ain't his troops, money or mercenaries" extremely well.

Like water off a ducks back one might say.

Remember what he is selling is not always focused at the EU/US but at his internal consumer who will elect him overwhelmingly in the next election.

[OUTLAW 09]

If Russia tries to take a bite at Kazakhstan the Kazakhs will likely be looking to the east for support, not to the west, and they are likely to get it. China has a significant and rising presence there, and has made Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan central pillars in the campaign for access to oil and gas that doesn't have to pass through marine space outside their sphere of influence.

Kazakhstan's Russian population is concentrated in the north, along the border... not where the oil is, but I wouldn't bet on the Kazakhs letting it go easily.

Potentially an interesting situation, though not one that would necessarily involve the US.

Dayuhan---100% correct---China will have a definite role to play and will play that role but Putin feels he is wrapping China around his finger--or at least he is assuming that.

[OUTLAW 09]

BW--- a great German article on how the sanctions worked well in South Africa and the Iran ---but Putin is driving massive holes in the sanctions within Europe and between Europe and the US--remember part of his strategy is in fact driving a large wedge between the US and Europe.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/sanktionen-gegen-russland-wie-weit-gehen-die-eu-und-die-usa-a-985736.html#ref=veeseoartikel

[BrentWilliams]

BW--it is not what he gains but what he can "sell" and right now he is selling the story "it ain't his troops, money or mercenaries" extremely well.

Like water off a ducks back one might say.

Remember what he is selling is not always focused at the EU/US but at his internal consumer who will elect him overwhelmingly in the next election.

An invasion could have been just as easily been sold to that audience. Protecting Russian people from harm, etc. The Russian people have never not backed him on this and would have backed other options. He controls the message and could have crafted the message needed to sell an invasion to protect the Russian minorities in Ukraine.

[BrentWilliams]

BW--- a great German article on how the sanctions worked well in South Africa and the Iran ---but Putin is driving massive holes in the sanctions within Europe and between Europe and the US--remember part of his strategy is in fact driving a large wedge between the US and Europe.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/sanktionen-gegen-russland-wie-weit-gehen-die-eu-und-die-usa-a-985736.html#ref=veeseoartikel

Sanctions aren't as strong as Iran. Plus, he is increasing the political will to do more, not decreasing it. A simple invasion would have not been resulted in as strong of sanctions as we have seen now.

[kaur]

Headline claims, that this is video of Chechen unit before entering Ukraine. I speculate that this is 9th Russian brigade that is manned with Chechens. Seems to be battalion tactical group. Upgraded MBTL-s, MSTA self-propelled artillery, logistics convoy and battle cry "Allahu akbar", before going to liberate Russkii Mir.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1tfU_6wxls

[OUTLAW 09]

Headline claims, that this is video of Chechen unit before entering Ukraine. I speculate that this is 9th Russian brigade that is manned with Chechens. Seems to be battalion tactical group. Upgraded MBTL-s, MSTA self-propelled artillery, logistics convoy and battle cry "Allahu akbar", before going to liberate Russkii Mir.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1tfU_6wxls

kaur----

According to Butusov, the Russian forces fighting against Ukrainian military forces near Ilovaisk in the “B” sector include units of the 106th Airborne (Ryazan) and the 98th Airborne (Ivano, Kostroma) divisions, the 9th Infantry (Nizhny Novgorod), and the 18th Infantry (Chechnya) brigades.

“A number of our captives have been moved to the Russian Federation,” he says.

Butosov reports that the Russian troops are reinforced by special services units of Russia’s GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate — Russia’s intelligence agency — Ed.) and artillery units of the North Caucasus Military District.

The Russian groups are taking up positions in the region of Donetsk, Starobeshevo, Kuteinyk, Noviy Svit.

“The total number of groups in the area stands at no fewer than 6 battalion task forces plus reinforcement units — at least 7,000-8,000 people. The Russians are reinforcing their supply lines and rear units, “he says.

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like the Russian public is now getting more information on killed Russian soldiers:

Up to 15,000 Russian soldiers sent to #Ukraine in past 2 months, perhaps 200 died - Says Russian mothers group
http://bit.ly/Y6myTz

BREAKING #Russian media has published solid evidence of perished army soldiers in #Ukraine w death certificates.

[OUTLAW 09]

Another example of the Russian "altered state of reality":

Russian fascists & neo-Nazis meet in Yalta and set up an "Anti-Fascist Council' to fight the "fascist" regime in Kyiv

http://khpg.org.ua/en/index.php?id=1409512010 …

[kaur]

Eduard Limonov presents his National Bolshevik Party unit in Luhansk.

http://limonov-eduard.livejournal.com/531874.html

In the next post he comments meeting in Moscow where RF ministry of interior affairs subunit that fight against extremist was monitoring his people.

http://limonov-eduard.livejournal.com/531617.html

What the logic? Russian police considers them threat and at the same time they are fighting for Russia' cause?

Outlaw, my mistake with Chechen units nr.

[BrentWilliams]

I found this interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/world/europe/nato-to-create-a-rapid-response-force-for-eastern-europe-officials-say.html?_r=0


WASHINGTON — As Ukrainian leaders warned on Monday of “a great war” with Russia, NATO leaders meeting in Wales this week were expected to endorse their most concrete response yet to increased Russian military intervention in Ukraine: establishing a rapid-reaction force capable of deploying quickly to Eastern Europe, officials of the alliance said.

The new force of some 4,000 troops, capable of moving on 48 hours’ notice, will be supported with logistics and equipment pre-positioned in Eastern European countries closer to Russia, with an upgraded schedule of military exercises and deployments that are intended to make NATO’s commitment of collective defense more credible and enhance its deterrence.

We need to use Russian actions as a clear message to all of Eastern Europe(Finland, Sweden, Georgia, etc) that joining NATO is the only means to ensure their security.

[OUTLAW 09]

I found this interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/world/europe/nato-to-create-a-rapid-response-force-for-eastern-europe-officials-say.html?_r=0



We need to use Russian actions as a clear message to all of Eastern Europe(Finland, Sweden, Georgia, etc) that joining NATO is the only means to ensure their security.

BW---Germany has blocked Georgia and the Ukraine from NATO since 2008.

[OUTLAW 09]

This appears to be another example of the current Russian "altered state of reality".

The country goes through a massive Maidan uprising in the freezing cold and getting 100s injured or killed just to define their own rule of law and good governance and head towards Europe as a goal.

Which did not set well with Russia who wanted to reestablish their sphere of influence and wanted the Ukraine in the EEC not in the EU---which then triggered the Russian UW/political war with the Ukraine and the resulting invasion when it appeared that they rag tag Ukrainian Army was in fact defeating the Russia mercenaries.

Now again in this Russian FM statement released via RIA one sees that if the Ukraine is driving still towards the EU and eventually NATO the Russian FM basically threatened more invasion and violence.

Changing one's country status is a population decision not a decision by Russia in another country.

MOSCOW, September 2 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine’s initiative to change its “non-bloc status” and join NATO undermines efforts in settling the Ukrainian crisis peacefully, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday.

“There is one very interesting fact: that this initiative appeared right after the meeting in Minsk where agreements on the process of the Contact Group were trying to find a commonly acceptable decision on the current domestic crisis in Ukraine,” Lavrov said during a live televised joint press conference with Tunisian Foreign Minister Mongi Hamdi.

Lavrov said that the “peace party” in Kiev is trying to develop a negotiation-based and political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, whereas the “war party” is taking steps “targeted at undermining these efforts.”

“It’s quite unfortunate that such moods in strengthening the positions of the ‘war party’ are actively warmed up and urged on out of Washington and several European capitals, and more and more often out of Brussels and from the NATO Headquarters where the secretary-general of the North Atlantic Alliance with or without reason comes out with announcements that do not fall under his jurisdiction,” Lavrov said.

Last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk introduced legislation to the country’s parliament to drop its “non-aligned bloc” status, renewing its path to becoming a member of NATO.

[OUTLAW 09]

It has been simply amazing these last six months in watching how one country and it's senior leader Putin and it's FM time after time after time completely reverse reality.

Thus my statement they are residing currently in an "altered state of reality" having believed their own propaganda.

Open source viedoes, photos, and journalist interviews --countless in number have repeated shown the Russian irregulars and mercenaries shelling their own villages, and towns, encircling their own villages and towns, shelling/killing civilians attempting to flee the fighting and indiscriminately killing, looting, raping, and torturing civilians and Ukrainain military personnel.

Not the Ukrainian Army -----and yet Putin and his FM continue to state "we had to step in to keep the Ukrainian Army for destroying cities, villages and towns by shelling and launching ballistic missiles/using illegal weapons ie WP and cluster munitions, and indiscriminately killing civilians"---civilians meaning "Russians"--notice they never mention Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine.

When in the face of the overwhelming open source---both are outright lying.

It is the ability to see reality and yet claim to have "seen something else" hat in fact makes leaders extremely dangerous.

From today's Der Spiegel Online--in German--goes straight into this "altered state of reality".

Basically it is calling Putin a blatant lair.

So again the question to commenters---if a leader is a blatant lair then how can the West "trust" anything he says?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/wladimir-putin-wie-russlands-praesident-in-der-ukraine-krise-luegt-a-989247.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Some here would think the Russian Defense Ministry and a Russian mercenary are smoking pot if their statements were not so darn serious.

Yesterday via YouTube a Russian mercenary called Motorola threatened to fire BM21/27s missiles into Poland for the Polish voiced support for the Ukraine and more and more Polish fighters joining the UA Army to fight Russians.

Then we have the Russian Defense Minister via back channels basically threatening to fire tactical nuclear weapons at the Ukrainian Army if they do not stop fighting both the Russian Army and the Russian mercenaries.

It seems the longer this rag tag army of the Ukraine hangs on and the higher the Russian military WIA/KIA tolls go the more ludicrous the statements are that are being made by Putin, his FM, and now his DM.

Everything from being in Kiev in two weeks, to "Russian soldiers are on vacations and took their tanks with them", to no Russian military inside the Ukraine and now to nuclear weapon threats to yes I want a new state called "New Russian" in the former eastern/southern Ukraine and along the way I also want Kazakhstan.

http://www.inquisitr.com/1447008/russia-threatening-to-drop-nuclear-bomb-in-ukraine-defense-minister-claims/

[OUTLAW 09]

Another example of Putin's "altered state of reality":

He was quoted as telling the EU President of the EU Commission recently that "he could take Kiev in two weeks".

Now his press manager is attempting to walk it back with the following RIA press release from today.

Not sure just how a Russian/Italian interpreter could have gotten the wrong translation of "I can take Kiev in two weeks"---that is actually rather straight forward and hard to misinterpret.

Anyway--another shinning example of Putin's "altered state of reality".

Kind of goes to the Russian recent critique of the US Ukrainian Ambassador stating via a Tweet--"Russian had invaded the Ukraine"---Russia complained that it was not the proper channel for such comments coming from an Ambassador.

MOSCOW, September 2 (RIA Novosti) – A quote about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apparent ability “to take Kiev in two weeks,” by European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso earlier in the week, was taken out of context and had a completely different meaning, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said Tuesday.

NOTE: He seems to not want to then state what the completely different meaning was actually to be---notice he forgot that piece of information in the article?

“This is incorrect, this goes beyond the framework of diplomatic practice. This is unbecoming of a serious political figure,” Ushakov said, referring to Barroso’s comment.

NOTE: Not sure what an be taken out of content with the statement--"I can take Kiev in two weeks"---also not sure why the Russian are all of a sudden so darn emphatic on what diplomacy/diplomatic practice is these days since they even declare satellite photos of Russian troops/artillery to be "lies from a video game".

Earlier this week, Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that after Barroso’s telephone conversation with Putin, the European Commission president claimed that the Russian leader said he could take Ukraine in two weeks.

The Kremlin later responded that Putin’s words were misinterpreted and had completely different meaning.

[BrentWilliams]

BW---Germany has blocked Georgia and the Ukraine from NATO since 2008.

Yes, an expansive NATO was seen as encouraging Russian aggression. However, Russian actions are continuing to change that judgement. One thing Putin is getting from this is a rejuvenated NATO. He may very well get an expanded NATO.

Ukraine is reversing course and going down that road.

[kaur]

Article about fallen Russian soldier from 19th brigade. Take a look at the pic, how they turned to be rebels. No polite green men fashion anymore. They are using same withe stripes of cloth like that Chechen video showed.

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/65075.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/65075.html%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D799

[OUTLAW 09]

Article about fallen Russian soldier from 19th brigade. Take a look at the pic, how they turned to be rebels. No polite green men fashion anymore. They are using same withe stripes of cloth like that Chechen video showed.

http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/65075.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/65075.html%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D799

kaur---you will notice on some video analysis work by ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl that depicted a Russian SF recon unit inside the Ukraine several days before the actual crossing of Russian troops---they all wore white pieces of cloth on their uniforms---was also carried two months ago in three or four other videos---but supposedly from irregulars---begs the question below.

You are right it is the same markings as seen with the "little green men" initially in the Crimea when this all started.

question----If you look at the Navy SEAL video and analysis---he had been in the Ukraine---at least from his Russian social media page since Feb 2014. so when really did Russian start moving FSB/GRU and SF personnel into the Ukraine--apparently during the Maidan.

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, an expansive NATO was seen as encouraging Russian aggression. However, Russian actions are continuing to change that judgement. One thing Putin is getting from this is a rejuvenated NATO. He may very well get an expanded NATO.

Ukraine is reversing course and going down that road.

BW---as much as I beat up on the Russian leadership or lack thereof something is bubbling up from former liberal advisors next to Putin who are no longer in the inner circle.

1. about 1-2 months ago a simple three/four paragraph article was lanced into the blogging world which indicated that the author had been immensely surprised by the speed of the sanctions, the severity and for him the aggressiveness that he would not have anticipated seeing from the West.

The article was out for about three days and then drifted away with no follow up.

2. then today another quick series of paragraphs in the Russian news agency RIA indicating 1) the Russian decision makers are not fully understanding the West and 2) the West is not fully understanding Russian views points.

There seems to be the desire by some of Putin's inner circle for a "new Yalta" meeting---which would again "divide up the world into spheres of influence"--might in fact be coming from Putin himself.

Putin desperately wants a sphere of influence and does not yet fully understand that since the Wall came down 25 years ago that concept died a sudden and final death in Europe as a whole.

In some aspects that is why he is clashing with the West--Europe as a whole views the sphere thing totally dead and Putin is trying to resurrect it in the vision of the old SU.

What is interesting in this article is the fact that several weeks ago the Russian FM actually came out in a short release basically pleading with the West---what is it you all want as we do not understand.

What struck me was the honesty and bluntness of the comment which might have in fact been correct. When you see the massive amounts of junk the RIA places into space that release stuck out like a red flag--but then it suddenly disappeared as well.

IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.

[OUTLAW 09]

For those following Putin's comments--this Ukrainian writer sums up Putin's long term moves inside the Ukraine and it does not have anything to do with mistreated ethnic Russians or "New Russia".

But we all know too well that Putin needs the “LNR” and “DNR” only as a springboard for further destabilization of the situation and exclusion of the entire south and east from Ukraine. The Kremlin doesn’t need the heaps of Donbas–it needs the scientific and industrial potential of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, as well as the strategic territory in the south represented by Odesa, Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts (in terms of support of Crimean livelihood and the connection to Transnistria, and taking control of the entire Ukrainian coast of the Azov and the Black Sea). This is a minimal program. Where the Moscow’s potentate [ambition] brings him next–is another question..

The question raised---"where does it bring Putin next" is valid and should be kept in the back of one's mind when Putin talks about the Ukraine.

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting article by an UK author who has been calling these Russian actions since 2007.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/edward-lucas-russia-a-revisionist-power-greater-dangers-lie-ahead-363081.html

[AmericanPride]

IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.

Didn't you claim that they were irrational, criminal, rogues who behaved unpredictably because of their "altered state of reality" and had no interest in negotiations? So what are they trying to talk about? :rolleyes:

So - as predicted - Moscow escalates its commitment in Ukraine to forestall the defeat of its proxies at the hands of the Ukrainian Army. NATO announces the creation of a new task force and now we wait for the Russian response - the movement of missiles, the redeployment of troops, the termination of another treaty? My question to you has been and still remains - what outcome is in the best interest of the U.S. and where (and how) does the cycle of escalation end?

[carl]

Yesterday via YouTube a Russian mercenary called Motorola threatened to fire BM21/27s missiles into Poland for the Polish voiced support for the Ukraine and more and more Polish fighters joining the UA Army to fight Russians.

It seems the longer this rag tag army of the Ukraine hangs on and the higher the Russian military WIA/KIA tolls go the more ludicrous the statements are that are being made by Putin, his FM, and now his DM.


This is an example of something I think perhaps is being overlooked, the effect of simple Ukrainian and (maybe especially) Polish cussedness in the face of Russian aggression. Sometimes we seem to think that if Mr. Obama and the Krauts don't go all in all is lost. Perhaps, but perhaps not. History does nothing if not reveal that the Poles and Ukrainians can fight and this simple ability may lead to the killing of lots of Russians which could throw a wrench in Mr. Putin's pudding. If they could just get lots and lots of decent anti-tank missiles...

But my main point is we shouldn't be so quick to discount the fighting ability of the targeted peoples when figuring all this.

[OUTLAW 09]

Didn't you claim that they were irrational, criminal, rogues who behaved unpredictably because of their "altered state of reality" and had no interest in negotiations? So what are they trying to talk about? :rolleyes:

So - as predicted - Moscow escalates its commitment in Ukraine to forestall the defeat of its proxies at the hands of the Ukrainian Army. NATO announces the creation of a new task force and now we wait for the Russian response - the movement of missiles, the redeployment of troops, the termination of another treaty? My question to you has been and still remains - what outcome is in the best interest of the U.S. and where (and how) does the cycle of escalation end?

AP--here is your problem--if you have actually been reading my comments you would notice that yes the West is trying to talk and I emphasize the term talk while Putin acts on his strategy ---for Putin actions speak far more than words--kind of his old KGB days.

Remember I in fact said he was coming across the border what about six months ago--so the West has been talking for what six months and still nothing.

So is he or is he not across the border and still what is the West doing "talking right"?

Let's see--nuclear threats towards the West, threats to actually take Kiev, let's see roughly 10K "defense contractors" on vacation and still counting, and oh yes threatening Kazakhstan-and what the West is still "talking right?

Is it not strange to you that the IS is not a strategic threat to say Des Moines Iowa but central Europe is not strategic to the US-and the Kurds get anti tank weapons and the IS has no tanks and yet the UA sees them daily--think about that ---does it make sense to you?

So what has the "talking" gotten the West as of yet AP?

Actually still nothing that I can see.

Or do we join him in his "altered state of reality"

Remember it was you who claimed he had reasons and we should understand those reasons--still think that?

[OUTLAW 09]

This is an example of something I think perhaps is being overlooked, the effect of simple Ukrainian and (maybe especially) Polish cussedness in the face of Russian aggression. Sometimes we seem to think that if Mr. Obama and the Krauts don't go all in all is lost. Perhaps, but perhaps not. History does nothing if not reveal that the Poles and Ukrainians can fight and this simple ability may lead to the killing of lots of Russians which could throw a wrench in Mr. Putin's pudding. If they could just get lots and lots of decent anti-tank missiles...

But my main point is we shouldn't be so quick to discount the fighting ability of the targeted peoples when figuring all this.

carl--you bring up an interesting point---it was the rag tag independent BNs that took the fight to the separatists using a few UA/NG armored units and actually were driving them back with heavy loses for the separatists--then Russian heavy tanks rolled in and heavy artillery as well.

What is interesting is the UA abilities to pull out of encirclements and they still have a bulk of their armored forces available

There appears to be 18 MI8s coming from Croatia and if NATO allows their members to send individual equipment then in the long haul things will in fact head towards a bloody stalemate that costs Russia in terms of blood and treasure which is already impacting the Russian internal opinion polls similar to AFG.

Germany just released 20K body armor sets and large amounts of field medical equipment for their wounded---things are slowly moving their way.

[OUTLAW 09]

carl--you bring up an interesting point---it was the rag tag independent BNs that took the fight to the separatists using a few UA/NG armored units and actually were driving them back with heavy loses for the separatists--then Russian heavy tanks rolled in and heavy artillery as well.

What is interesting is the UA abilities to pull out of encirclements and they still have a bulk of their armored forces available

There appears to be 18 MI8s coming from Croatia and if NATO allows their members to send individual equipment then in the long haul things will in fact head towards a bloody stalemate that costs Russia in terms of blood and treasure which is already impacting the Russian internal opinion polls similar to AFG.

Germany just released 20K body armor sets and large amounts of field medical equipment for their wounded---things are slowly moving their way.

carl---this is where the UA new tactics are headed-regular Army/NG/Territorial Defense units will hold and then they are shifting to UW/guerrilla warfare--yes Russia can control territory but they do not have the troop numbers to avoid a guerrilla war---the Ukrainian SF companies have gone to ground and then this was blogged today.

Guerilla Battalion from Harkiv

This twitter site carries a lot of new Russian equipment IDs being seen in the Ukraine and or headed to the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fukra ineatwar.blogspot.com%2F&tw_i=506887223330234371&tw_p=embeddedtimeline&tw_w=467271264835346432

[Firn]

Stepping back a bit back, how long will this war go on?

i) Putin has already annexed a part of Ukraine and seems to want another slice of it - at least that is what Ukraine and other powers have to take earnestly into account.

ii) Putin got overall the initiative by breaking the political gameplay in Europe after suffering a crushing blow by the Maidan movement. Against his political and military aggression Ukraine and the West moved rather slowly and confused. However there has been some (economic) pushback and even the mild means are harming Russia.

iii) Overall Putin's aggressive political goals forced him to involve more and more the regular armed forces which are likely not as motivated or well trained as some of the formations employed earlier.

iv) The Russian economy is suffering already considerable damage, far more then EU one. It is difficult to see any big positive development unless this war stops. The balance sheet remains strong but the economy as a whole is heading downwards.

v) The Russian aggression seems to be at least partly motivated by internal politics and enabled Putin to step up the oppression at home considerably, supported by a vicious propaganda campaign against his opponents.

So what would stop his war?

I will post more on the Ukrainian and on the Western side of the conflict, but so far the guy who lost Ukraine for Russia has only chosen escalation and violence to take at least parts from it.

[carl]

carl---this is where the UA new tactics are headed-regular Army/NG/Territorial Defense units will hold and then they are shifting to UW/guerrilla warfare--yes Russia can control territory but they do not have the troop numbers to avoid a guerrilla war---the Ukrainian SF companies have gone to ground and then this was blogged today.


From my civilian standpoint I think of it as the Russians can control areas in which they choose to concentrate troops, cities say, and their heavy columns can go where they want but they cannot control the countryside on both sides of the roads that connect to Russia and over which their supplies must travel. This seems the ideal situation for UW/guerrilla warfare units to really hurt, and I mean really hurt, the logistics units that will be motoring down those roads. Maybe to the extent that the further the Russian units penetrate, the more isolated and in greater danger they will be.

Is that about right?

[BrentWilliams]

BW---as much as I beat up on the Russian leadership or lack thereof something is bubbling up from former liberal advisors next to Putin who are no longer in the inner circle.

1. about 1-2 months ago a simple three/four paragraph article was lanced into the blogging world which indicated that the author had been immensely surprised by the speed of the sanctions, the severity and for him the aggressiveness that he would not have anticipated seeing from the West.

The article was out for about three days and then drifted away with no follow up.

2. then today another quick series of paragraphs in the Russian news agency RIA indicating 1) the Russian decision makers are not fully understanding the West and 2) the West is not fully understanding Russian views points.

There seems to be the desire by some of Putin's inner circle for a "new Yalta" meeting---which would again "divide up the world into spheres of influence"--might in fact be coming from Putin himself.

Putin desperately wants a sphere of influence and does not yet fully understand that since the Wall came down 25 years ago that concept died a sudden and final death in Europe as a whole.

In some aspects that is why he is clashing with the West--Europe as a whole views the sphere thing totally dead and Putin is trying to resurrect it in the vision of the old SU.

What is interesting in this article is the fact that several weeks ago the Russian FM actually came out in a short release basically pleading with the West---what is it you all want as we do not understand.

What struck me was the honesty and bluntness of the comment which might have in fact been correct. When you see the massive amounts of junk the RIA places into space that release stuck out like a red flag--but then it suddenly disappeared as well.

IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.

I think that is about right. They see themselves as a world power and think they should have cold war type influence. But the problem is, they really aren't that significant of a player. You may disagree with this, but to me military power is based off of economic power. The reason we have a military that is strong is because we have an American economy that can support the type of diversified labor needed for that modern military. Russia is a sick country with major economic and demographic problems. Long term, its only hope is integration with Europe, not a return to the Cold War.

That said, if they think it is in their interest to destabilize their neighbors and act against international norms, we should act. We might not have the political will to directly intervene here, but bigger picture we do have the will to do a lot that will affect Russia. We have shown the will for deeper economic sanctions. That will worsen their own internal problems long term. Security assistance to the Ukraine might be on the table. However, also of significant is a rejuvenated NATO which should expand and hem Russia in. It is time to draw a line and back it up with NATO and article 5.

[Petkov]

So nobody wants to answer my questions but just keeps on posting anti putin bull####.

THIS IS A DIRECT challenge. TO ALL of you.



Shall we list the lies USA/NATO has said in the last 20 years yet again? Let's.

1990 babies taken out of incubators and left to die on cold hospital floor
1990-1999 Saddam working on nuclear weapons
2001 Osama engineered and did 9-11
2001-2003 Saddam has ties with Ali Queda
2001-2003 Saddam has weapons of mass distraction (Colin Powell, Bush jr, Cheney, Condy Rice, etc)
2002-2203 Saddam working on weapons of mass distraction
2002-2003 Saddam working on acquiring nuclear weapons
2001 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2001 Iran has ties with Ali Queda
2002 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2003 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2004 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2005 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2006 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2007 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2008 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2009 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2010 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2011 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2012 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2013 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2013 Assad gassed his own people (part 1)
2013 Assad gassed his own people (part 2)
2014 Iran will have nuclear bomb
2014 Assad gassed his own people (part 3)

Let's leave for now the lies USA used to start the Vietnam war, the Korean war, WWII, war againts Spain and so on. I havent listed the lies we have caught

them about Ukraine. MH17, Russia invading(3 times, etc)


Nobody wants to answer my questions about all the lies USA/NATO have said in the last 20 years and to answer to me WHY anyone would STILL believe anything USA/NATO says but you are quick to gut infractions on me.

If you think I will stop you are all sadly mistaken. Again, I ask:
After all the lies USA/NATO have said in the last 20 years why would anyone still believe anything USA/NATO says about anything? Unless one of course is either a hopeless total idiot or a shill. So .....which ones are you all?


I DEMAND an answer.

Direct challenge to Carl: answer my question please, dont try to be funny. If I don't get an answer, they I will know what you are. Somebody who cannot answer questions because he cannot.

[Petkov]

Come on you all smart guys, answer me, why would you believe USA government is telling the truth about Russia when he has been lying for 1000s of years?


Come on, I dare you.

[Petkov]

23 pages of anti Russia anti Putin propaganda and not one real intelligent post. How sad.

[carl]

So nobody wants to answer my questions but just keeps on posting anti putin bull####.

Yep.


Direct challenge to Carl: answer my question please, dont try to be funny. If I don't get an answer, they I will know what you are. Somebody who cannot answer questions because he cannot.

And yep again.

[OUTLAW 09]

23 pages of anti Russia anti Putin propaganda and not one real intelligent post. How sad.



Petrov---I will give you an answer---did you as a Russian ever stop to think where all the gas/oil wealth went to---certainly you did not get the billions onto your bank account from your comments here.

Secondly--just take a look at the current Russian society--and tell me and others here there is not a Fascist/Neo Nazi Revival inside Russian.

Just how many Russian ultra nationalists/Neo Nazi/Fascist Russian "legal" groups are in fact fighting now against "other alleged Fascists " in the Ukraine

Answer the question.

Last time I countered---seven different groups---there are not that many Neo Nazi's left in Germany.

So before you rant and rave--answer the question just how is it that the former Soviet Union spins so many different Nazi groups up to fight?

Do you not think that Russia is in fact ultra nationalist with neo imperial dreams?

Read this article my friend---- YES FASCISM is alive and well in Russia.

Besides they are having a Russian approved Fascism Council meeting in the coming weeks at Yalta---answer the question comrade---why is that?

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117692/fascism-returns-ukraine

[kaur]

Story about Russian airborne trooper, who played Ukrainian "Berkut" trooper at the time of Crimean referendum.

http://argumentua.com/tainoe-stanovitsya-yavnym-kto-igral-rol-berkutovtsev-vo-vremya-krymskogo-referenduma

[OUTLAW 09]

I think that is about right. They see themselves as a world power and think they should have cold war type influence. But the problem is, they really aren't that significant of a player. You may disagree with this, but to me military power is based off of economic power. The reason we have a military that is strong is because we have an American economy that can support the type of diversified labor needed for that modern military. Russia is a sick country with major economic and demographic problems. Long term, its only hope is integration with Europe, not a return to the Cold War.

That said, if they think it is in their interest to destabilize their neighbors and act against international norms, we should act. We might not have the political will to directly intervene here, but bigger picture we do have the will to do a lot that will affect Russia. We have shown the will for deeper economic sanctions. That will worsen their own internal problems long term. Security assistance to the Ukraine might be on the table. However, also of significant is a rejuvenated NATO which should expand and hem Russia in. It is time to draw a line and back it up with NATO and article 5.

BW--actually we tend to think along the same lines but with different emphasis.

Today's newest example of the Russian "altered state of reality".

Evidently the Presidents of the Ukraine and Russia have been discussing a "ceasefire"--then the Ukraine announces those talks as having made some progress and then Russia state media and Putin's press manager spent all morning here in Europe "walking those comments alluded to Russia back".

Ever wonder why--Russia was playing their 15 card--meaning let's see if I can influence those wavering in the EU against more sanctions against me---meaning I will "give the allusion I am trying to solve the problem" thus just maybe the sanctions will not be so hard against me.

The Russian statement after the Ukraine announced the news--was "we could not agree to a ceasefire as we have nothing to do with the conflict"----and we all know just "uninvolved Russia is".

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poroshenko-and-putin-agree-on-ceasefire-363171.html

AND again this Russian move was just in time for both the NATO and EU meetings.

BUT then on the back side of the 15th card---he let's a Russian military armored convoy of over 122 vehicles--tanks, support vehicles, troop trucks and artillery simply convoy into the Ukraine all headed to the Donbas.

Remember it was in fact Putin in front of Russian national press media who stated "he had ordered the FSB and the Border Security Command to "tighten up" border security"--that was two months ago and carried in the global media and what was the result of his "order to tighten up"?

Convoy video analysis from open source -- ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Putin is all about actions not talk right now.

His economy is in fact hurting badly right now and the coming new sanctions are those that I have mentioned here a number of times- and it will cause more grief to his economy which is tanking rapidly --the EU is holding back the cut off from SWIFT as their "nuclear option" if he does not throttle back.

IMO he is racing to get a "New Russia" solution in place--before his economy tanks badly and he has to explain the reasons for that to his own population who in the end be paying for his "adventures".

Here is a prefect example of the "non involved Russia"---just how is it possible that the "Russian irregulars and mercenaries" claim to have an air force flying now from the totally destroyed Luhansk airport---the runway was completely cratered to deny use of the airfield by anyone?

BREAKING RUSSIAN INVADERS CLAIM OPERATING AIR FORCE, 4 DAYS AFTER #LUHANSK #AIRPORT CAPTURE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bewhWwZdzZs …

pic.twitter.com/3wfnXvbiYY

What this now means are air strikes being flown by Russian "vacationing" pilots on in planes they "borrowed for their vacations as it was cheaper to fly than walk" on Ukrainian ground forces.

[OUTLAW 09]

Now the Russian "altered state of reality" is taking on contours.

If one Googles' "Russian 2012 nuclear strategy" you will find in a number of Russian articles the mention of a first strike ability and going immediately to tactical nuclear weapons.

If you then Google other Russian military articles say since 2008 there is a repeated fear by Russian military planners of a conventional war and losing that conventional war---they still regard NATO to be far stronger than the Russian Army even if it takes 28 countries to decide something.

Which is probably a correct assessment of NATO combat abilities in a conventional environment--they view NATO forces to be better lead, professional and well equipped--especially the air forces.

Thus the constant talk that is repeated in their new nuclear strategy released in 2012 which calls for a tactical first strike ability.

So this Interfax press release might be designed to cause NATO to rethink especially in light of the coming NATO Russian decisions this week---but in the "altered state of reality" it has been there since 2012--so really nothing but hot air.

The problem I foresee for Russia with their nuclear statements from today and the implied threat of tactical nukes being used in the Ukraine, and their tactical exercised nuke strike on Poland and the Baltics--- will be the demand by the weaken NATO members for a new missile shield which will then panic Russia and that is their worst nightmare---meaning a true threat to eliminate their first strike abilities---but again provoked by Russian actions and threats not by the West---as it was never really on the NATO agenda until now.

Interfax from today 13:47

Russia's updated military doctrine should stipulate preemptive nuke strike - military official

[OUTLAW 09]

BW--actually we tend to think along the same lines but with different emphasis.

Today's newest example of the Russian "altered state of reality".

Evidently the Presidents of the Ukraine and Russia have been discussing a "ceasefire"--then the Ukraine announces those talks as having made some progress and then Russia state media and Putin's press manager spent all morning here in Europe "walking those comments alluded to Russia back".

Ever wonder why--Russia was playing their 15 card--meaning let's see if I can influence those wavering in the EU against more sanctions against me---meaning I will "give the allusion I am trying to solve the problem" thus just maybe the sanctions will not be so hard against me.

The Russian statement after the Ukraine announced the news--was "we could not agree to a ceasefire as we have nothing to do with the conflict"----and we all know just "uninvolved Russia is".

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poroshenko-and-putin-agree-on-ceasefire-363171.html

AND again this Russian move was just in time for both the NATO and EU meetings.

BUT then on the back side of the 15th card---he let's a Russian military armored convoy of over 122 vehicles--tanks, support vehicles, troop trucks and artillery simply convoy into the Ukraine all headed to the Donbas.

Remember it was in fact Putin in front of Russian national press media who stated "he had ordered the FSB and the Border Security Command to "tighten up" border security"--that was two months ago and carried in the global media and what was the result of his "order to tighten up"?

Convoy video analysis from open source -- ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Putin is all about actions not talk right now.

His economy is in fact hurting badly right now and the coming new sanctions are those that I have mentioned here a number of times- and it will cause more grief to his economy which is tanking rapidly --the EU is holding back the cut off from SWIFT as their "nuclear option" if he does not throttle back.

IMO he is racing to get a "New Russia" solution in place--before his economy tanks badly and he has to explain the reasons for that to his own population who in the end be paying for his "adventures".

Here is a prefect example of the "non involved Russia"---just how is it possible that the "Russian irregulars and mercenaries" claim to have an air force flying now from the totally destroyed Luhansk airport---the runway was completely cratered to deny use of the airfield by anyone?

BREAKING RUSSIAN INVADERS CLAIM OPERATING AIR FORCE, 4 DAYS AFTER #LUHANSK #AIRPORT CAPTURE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bewhWwZdzZs …

pic.twitter.com/3wfnXvbiYY

What this now means are air strikes being flown by Russian "vacationing" pilots on in planes they "borrowed for their vacations as it was cheaper to fly than walk" on Ukrainian ground forces.

This was being carried on the EuroMaidan site today concerning the open source analyzed Russian tank convoy--by the way the video was geo tagged as being in the Ukraine:

2014/09/02 • Featured, War in Donbas

The smoking gun: Russian column confirmed in Krasnodon

Russia has invaded Ukraine and now there is irrefutable proof. Today a Krasnodon local riding on trolleybus route Nr.1 connecting Krasnodon with Molodohvardiysk filmed a Russian mechanized column...

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/02/the-smoking-gun-russian-column-confirmed-in-krasnodon/

[OUTLAW 09]

Article concerning a new Russian website for Russian MIAs, KIAs, and WIAs in the Ukraine. The important piece of info---actually created and uploaded in Russia not from outside bloggers.

You will notice a couple of individuals listed on the site with ties to the Russian SF and or were Russian SF trainers.

http://en.inforesist.org/a-website-for-search-of-russian-servicemen-which-disappeared-in-ukraine-was-created-in-russia/

[OUTLAW 09]

There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.

Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.

KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.

There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.

There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/02/over-2000-bodies-of-russian-soldiers-killed-in-donbas-arrive-to-russia/

Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian mercenaries still have a hard time aiming and firing accuarately the BM21s they have---hit today a Donetsk coalmine and set it on fire.

The "October" mine in #Donetsk city is burning after being hit by "Russian terrorist Grad missiles".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whE1olE1RtM …

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting US comment concerning the 1997 NATO Russian Founding Act.

Philip Karber, a former senior U.S. defense official who has provided assessments of Ukraine’s military to Congress, said, “Russia occupies and incorporates Crimea, shoots down civilian aircraft, then violently invades and is destroying Ukrainian army—and we are supposed to honor a non-treaty, 15-year-old commitment? If the U.S. is playing by those kind of rules we are in much bigger trouble than we admit and our allies are doomed.”

If it had been Putin he would have already violated/ignored it---if it stopped him from his stated end goal.

[OUTLAW 09]

This chart accurately depicts if one takes all Russian/Putin statements since before the Crimea and his latest New Russia statements as to what his end state is for south/eastern Ukraine.

(Pro-)#Russian territorial aspirations. Everything right of and under the red line.
pic.twitter.com/z8zI181GMd

https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/status/507149113758982144/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

Social media analyst types are now branching out and searching Russian social media and finding some interesting information.

Here is a picture of a Russian military member on the left and he again in a Berkut Special Police uniform on the Maidan.

Begs the question just how involved were the Russian GRU and Russian military in countering physically the Maidan on Ukrainian soil?

I posted a link to a Russian Navy SEAL who had been in the Ukraine in Feb 2014.

If you wondered, who killed people on #Euromaidan: soldiers from #Russia in #Ukraine uniform!

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/507072131424063488 … pic.twitter.com/KZK9ARCrd1

The Russian soldier in the picture was recently captured and sent back seriously wounded to Rostov by the Ukrainian Army thus his picture was used to match other social media inputs.

[OUTLAW 09]

Another indicator that the Ukrainian Army is shifting tactics---and going to guerrilla warfare concept--their SF have already moved into that mode.

#Ukrainian Army HQ plans to establish partisan movement. Partisan units commanders r already defined, NSC spox

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/09/1/7036468/ … |EMPR

[AmericanPride]

Outlaw,

If Putin wanted to annex eastern Ukraine, he would have seized it when Russia seized Crimea. He would have accepted, not rejected, the Donetsk petition for annexation. And he certainly would not have financed a protracted and destructive conflict that will cost billions in reconstruction for a Russian economy that has many of its own problems already. Moscow does not want to annex eastern Ukraine - it wants to weaken Ukraine and obstruct its participation in Western economic, security, and political institutions in order to create space between Russia and NATO.

Despite all of your hysterical (and frequently contradictory) claims about the mad-hatters in the Kremlin with their "altered state of reality", the fact is that Moscow and Kiev, as predicted, are coming around to an initial agreement facilitated by European governments to de-escalate the conflict and create political space for the potential establishment of a final settlement on some serious political (and social and economic) questions regarding Ukraine.

The Ukraine government does not have the strength to sustain a protracted conflict, especially one that Moscow can unilaterally escalate. Rebuilding the political structures in the eastern regions will be difficult for Kiev already, on top of the economic reconstruction necessary, and the continued threat of Russian interference. How will Kiev manage the demobilization of the militants and incorporate them into the political process? How will Kiev finance reconstruction, and under what conditions will the West extend more loans for it? Can Russia be expected to offer loans for reconstruction and what will be the political price for that support? In the long term, Kiev is fighting a losing battle, the U.S. has no interest in direct conflict with Russia, and there is serious risk for the conflict's escalation to seriously damage the status quo in the rest of Europe. So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.

[Firn]

Despite all of your hysterical (and frequently contradictory) claims about the mad-hatters in the Kremlin with their "altered state of reality", the fact is that Moscow and Kiev, as predicted, are coming around to an initial agreement facilitated by European governments to de-escalate the conflict and create political space for the potential establishment of a final settlement on some serious political (and social and economic) questions regarding Ukraine.

I hope that such an agreement takes place quickly although I'm doubtful to say the least. So far Putin has often 'de-escalated' - and escalated in words only to push hard in a single direction when it came to facts. We will see.


In the long term, Kiev is fighting a losing battle, the U.S. has no interest in direct conflict with Russia, and there is serious risk for the conflict's escalation to seriously damage the status quo in the rest of Europe. So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.

My take is that Russia is fighting a losing battle in the long term if the EU and the USA are not too mild with their sanctions and not too weak with their (mostly economic) support. In fact Russia has already lost a huge deal, less then the target of it's aggression of course but far more then the Western world. War is generally a loss for the countries involved, for some more and for some less. Sanctions are quite similar as they disrupt free trade. Sadly in quite a few occasions letting an aggressor continue does offer still worse choices.

I'm pretty sure nobody knows exactly what will happen in the next days, weeks, months or years. Lots of wars were started with the illusion of a relatively quick and bloodless victory, just like this one as I suppose. In quite a few cases those became very costly for the invader, eroding the will of the population. Propaganda helps to support the political goals of the leadership, but it has limits as history has shown.

In the meantime the German government has given the go-ahead for 20.000 protective vests (http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/konflikt-in-der-ostukraine-bundesregierung-erlaubt-lieferung-von-schutzwesten-an-die-ukraine-13132629.html). Merkel had promised at a CDU meeting to take personally care of their delivery. I have of course no idea how quickly they will reach the Ukrainian troops...

[davidbfpo]

Yes finally Russain actions in the Ukraine have led to the amphibious ship order being delayed:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29052599

I just hope the near-completed ship is disabled and guarded - after all the Israelis spirited away a number of missile boats from a French dockyard years ago:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherbourg_Project

[AmericanPride]

hope that such an agreement takes place quickly although I'm doubtful to say the least. So far Putin has often 'de-escalated' - and escalated in words only to push hard in a single direction when it came to facts. We will see.

I agree - the Russians typically drive a hard bargain at the negotiating table. But I also think the window of opportunity is closing for both Moscow and Kiev. The offensive by the Ukrainian Army demonstrated the weakness of the insurgency and prompted Russia's committment to escalate. That can only be done so many times and sustained for so long before the political and economic consequences start to overtake the value of intervening in the first place.

Also - there's the question of what are Russia's intentions? If the goal is to weaken the political stability of Ukraine, this is essentially mission accomplished.


My take is that Russia is fighting a losing battle in the long term if the EU and the USA are not too mild with their sanctions and not too weak with their (mostly economic) support.

I think this is a complex question once we start expanding the scope of consideration beyond Ukraine-Russia relations. I don't think the sanctions are compelling the Russians to come to the table - I think it's their recognition that they've achieved a good portion of the goals, and a good deal now is better than holding out for a perfect deal later. There's a decreasing return on investment the longer the intervention continues. And the Russians aren't typically ones to fret too much about spilled milk and the loss of good will when it comes to preserving their perceived core interests. Ukraine is going to need alot of help in the near future and by necessity, Russia will probably play a role in that - and I think that's exactly what the Russians want.

The question I'm concerned about: what's in it for the U.S.? The U.S. can afford to be bellicose in its rhetoric: (1) it doesn't cost anything, (2) it signals to domestic and international audiences that the U.S. is serious, and (3) the U.S. does not have to live with the threat of a potential Russian invasion. Hence - the willingness of Kiev, Berlin, etc to talk with Moscow. But can the U.S. afford to undermine an agreement between Kiev and Moscow, even if that agreement appears to favor Russia?

[carl]

So - yes, an agreement will happen, and it will probably favor Russia more than Ukraine.

I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.

[carl]

Another indicator that the Ukrainian Army is shifting tactics---and going to guerrilla warfare concept--their SF have already moved into that mode.

It seems from my mostly uniformed forever a civilian perspective, a definition of 'happy hunting ground' might include SF being let loose upon Russian supply columns manned by conscripts.

[AmericanPride]

I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.

This is true - and it's going to be a major problem for the Kiev government. All of the fighting, deaths, and destruction of property has occurred in the east; regions already dissatisfied with the central government. Will the population blame the Russians or the government in Kiev for their circumstances? How will Kiev treat the political opposition and the demobilization of the armed militants? How will Kiev regulate the operations of pro-government militias and their treatment of the population?

[kaur]

Putin peace plan in Ukraine 2014.


1. the separatists (kaur - Russians) halt all offensive operations

2. Ukrainian troops move their artillery back out of range of cities and large towns in the rebel-held (kaur - Russian held) area

3. Ukraine to cease airstrikes

4. the establishment of an international monitoring mission and humanitarian aid corridors

5. “all for all” prisoner exchange

6. “rebuilding brigades” to repair damaged roads, bridges, power lines and other infrastructure.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia.html?_r=0

Sarkozy-Medvedev plan in Georgia 2008.


1) Non-use of force.

2) Stop all military action.

3) Free access to humanitarian aid.

4) Georgian troops return to their previous positions before the conflict.

5) Russian troops return to the lines they held before the start of the military operation. Before an international solution is worked out Russian peacekeepers are taking up an additional security role.

6) The start of an international discussion over the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.


http://www.ccun.org/News/2008/August/12%20n/Medvedev%20and%20Sarkozy%20Devise%206-Point%20Peace%20Plan%20for%20the%20Georgia%20War.h tm


Authorities in South Ossetia say about two thousand people have died in the fighting. Their capital Tskhinvali lies in ruins. Russian emergency services say they are caring for hundreds of wounded in the area.

The Russian Government has promised some 40 million dollars to help re-build the city.

It is estimated that more than 30,000 Ossetians have fled the fighting to cross the border to Russia. Funerals are being held in North Ossetia for some of those who have died.

What is the difference between those two Russia's wars? Did they figure out that South Ossetia and Abhazia are too expensive projects and it would be more clever to share the rebuilding process expences with West? Hatred is seeded and strings are attatched?

[kaur]

Opinion: High price for ceasefire in eastern Ukraine

The Kremlin will have achieved its goals - for the time being - if there is a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. But it wouldn’t mean the end of the conflict, writes DW’s Ingo Mannteufel.


- A new frozen conflict

- Poroshenko, a loser

- Another loser

http://www.dw.de/opinion-high-price-for-ceasefire-in-eastern-ukraine/a-17897974?maca=en-rss-en-eu-2092-rdf

To continue Georgia and Ukraine comparsion.

19.08.2008


“No business as usual”

The Council strongly urged Russia to “take immediate action to withdraw its troops from the area”.

As NATO Secretary General underlined during his press conference, “the NATO-Russia Council meetings would be placed on hold until Russia adhered to the ceasefire and the future of our relations will depend on the concrete actions Russia will take to abide by the … peace plan”. “We are not closing doors”, he said again, but “we…cannot continue with business as usual… as long as Russia does not commit to the principles upon which we agreed to base our relationship”.


http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/08-august/e0819a.html

31.10.2008


Kouchner’s Kommersant interview coincided with his talks in St. Petersburg with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov. In those talks, Kouchner called for a quick start to EU-Russia negotiations on a partnership agreement, signaling a return to business-as-usual after Russia’s recent invasion of Georgia.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34068&no_cache=1#.VAeDNWIaySM

At page 20, there is resume about European action after Georgia-Russia war. Good material to compare with today's situation in Ukraine. For example page 12 is like deja vu.

http://www.natolin.edu.pl/pdf/analizy/Natolin_Analiza_1_2013.pdf

[AmericanPride]

What is the difference between those two Russia's wars? Did they figure out that South Ossetia and Abhazia are too expensive projects and it would be more clever to share the rebuilding process expences with West? Hatred is seeded and strings are attatched?

There isn't much difference - that's been pointed out by a number of people. I think it's pretty obvious the Russians want strings to be attached - the Maiden revolution meant all of their strings were cut, and the military operations were launched to bring Russian interests back to the table vis-a-vis Ukraine's political future. Rebuilding eastern Ukraine using Russian resources or funds means accepting Russian conditions for said aid - and that means continued Russian influence in determining Ukraine's economic and political future.

[Bill Moore]

I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.

This isn't as true when states fight a so called regular war. These types of wars are mostly determined in the military domain, and once one side's military is defeated or realizes it can't win they can sue for peace. Most recent example for the U.S. was DESERT STORM. On the other hand, when it is a war amongst people, even if a state actor serves as a van guard that mobilizes the people and to some extent is directing the effort, it is very hard to bring this type of war to an acceptable end for both parties. They then to drag on for many years. Again, this is why I think we should be increasingly hesitant to employ UW as a course of action just because it is expedient. There are certainly times when it is the best course of action to pursue, but it seems that lately, O.K. since Ike was President, we opted for this form of warfare due to the perceived costs and political risks being low. Yet the moral and political costs are normally higher than we anticipated.

I can't see this approach working out well for either the Russians or Ukraine. I certainly don't see a better peace on the horizon. The Russians may have masterly used UW as an operational approach to achieve their objective, but I suspect they're questioning if it was the best way to achieve to their political object based on the second and third order effects. Only time will tell.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.dw.de/opinion-high-price-for-ceasefire-in-eastern-ukraine/a-17897974?maca=en-rss-en-eu-2092-rdf

To continue Georgia and Ukraine comparsion.

19.08.2008



http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/08-august/e0819a.html

31.10.2008



http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34068&no_cache=1#.VAeDNWIaySM

At page 20, there is resume about European action after Georgia-Russia war. Good material to compare with today's situation in Ukraine. For example page 12 is like deja vu.

http://www.natolin.edu.pl/pdf/analizy/Natolin_Analiza_1_2013.pdf

kaur---I am not sure that the "Putin Plan" is anything other than a verbal way to influence the EU meetings this week as Putin knows sanctions are coming that will literally put the Russian economy over the cliff for the next 5-7 years and that is hard then to explain to the Russian population just "how important south/eastern Ukraine is for Russia" w2hen many in Russia are now questioning the Crimea annexation---meaning in the end what did it bring us the Russian population?

This popped up in RIA this morning and goes to the heart of why Putin "engaged" in the global media with his "offer".

http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140904/192622788/Putins-Ukrainian-Conflict-Settlement-Plan-May-Prevent-New.html

Right now the core hindrance is the demand by the mercenaries that they want to have a relationship with the EEC and the core demand from Russia is still on the table--no EU Association agreement and they have three reasons that they demand that even the EU cannot agree to.

So stalemate.

I am not so worried about about a "frozen state" similar to Georgia and Moldavia for the simply reason the industrial base in the Donbas needs business outlets and secondly with the Crimea annexation and the severe hit the Russian economy has taken Russia cannot provide any rebuilding efforts as they promised for say the Crimea which did not also show up as Russia is basically broke.

Here is the interesting point---all of the industrial base in the east is outdated and built around the Soviet state model of tons produced not quality and export chances---that will take the EU to help out but the EU will not spend funds on an "occupied frozen state" concept that Russia has pulled before. So any downsizing that is needed means unemployment and a flat lining of the local economies--- and that will hit the DPR in the face not Kiev since it is the DPR that is "governing".

There are now reports of "taxes" being forced on the local businesses by the mercenaries--that ain't going over well with many saying they will fold up and depart for Kiev rather than stay in the area.

Also if the area is "frozen" cannot see the Kiev central government doing a lot of money investments in a area that is basically under Russian control---why would they?

If the economy in the east/south remains unchanged and frozen then the so called ethnic Russians will start asking "was it worth it" as they have done in the liberated eastern towns and villages.

There is an entirely different scenario that has come forward--quietly from within the Kiev elites---slowly let the Donbas go---set then a definitive border between the DPR and the Ukraine---rebuild and modernize with EU assistance the western portion and let Russia be responsible for the south-east and failure as they are doing now in the Crimea simply because they cannot afford 10-15B USD per year to support both separatist areas plus the other three enclaves.

But Kiev cannot sell that idea right now just after the hard fighting and the Maidan---

They have Putin/Russia over a barrel right now in the IJC rulings first on Yukos and then coming in Stockholm where Russia is desperately trying to renegotiate a gas price in order to show Stockholm they are agreeable--Gazprom does not want an international ruling on it's gas contracts which are in fact monopolistic. On top of this they can via the IJC get massive rulings for all oil/gas lost revenues and royalties, lost investments/properties and for the lost military facilities/equipment in the 100s of billions which Russia must pay or face constant harassment via seizures of their ships, planes, oil and gas and losing their banking creditability if they do not pay.

Such a ruling would reinforce the coming EU Cartel ruling which will be also against Gazprom---you have seen the South Stream completely stopped by the EU.

Gazprom and Putin virtually hate the new EU Regulation 3 requirements---that there must be deregulated energy competition across the EU.

Gazprom and Putin want to have gas as a weapon the new EU requirements kill that idea totally.

[OUTLAW 09]

A perfect example of what I have been calling the Russian "altered state of reality".

Begs the question--what has the individual been smoking lately?

From RIA today:

MOSCOW, September 4 (RIA Novosti) - The concerns of Eastern European countries about their security and Russia’s alleged destabilization of the situation in Ukraine are baseless, as such an attitude has more to do with phobias then with real security concerns, Russia’s Permanent Representative to NATO Alexander Grushko said in an interview with Euronews.

“These worries are completely baseless. We have proven many times that all these so called facts produced by NATO and other European capitals are not really facts, but fabricated documents. We are not concentrating troops, neither movement of military hardware which could be considered as destabilizing,” Grushko said.

According to Grushko, these concerns can be attributed to phobias. “And phobias can not be treated with deploying tanks and additional combat forces, “ he noted, advising the countries to take a closer look at such problems prevalent in their own societies,

Again what planet is this individual currently residing on?

He definitely seems to have never read the Russian new military doctrine, nor seems to know the Russian military exercised a tactical nuclear strike on the Baltics and Poland, nor seems to have read the comments by a Russian military "expert" that the Baltics would become first targets if NATO placed bases in their countries and he definitely does not seem to know what the stated 2012 Russian nuclear doctrine of tactical first strike is.

[OUTLAW 09]

This is an interesting interview with one of the surviving Russian airborne types that got beaten up on when they convoyed into the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/03/russian-soldiers-fighting-in-ukraine-describe-scale-of-russian-losses-theyve-downed-the-whole-company/

Notice he mentions not once but twice the alleged involvement of an American radio intercept/jammer unit in the Ukraine that was used against them.

Interesting as this alleged bit of information also was stated by Russia back when the Crimea was being occupied/annexed.

Russia claimed then that it was the 66th MI Group out of Germany.

Are they still telling that story to their troops during deployment prep?

[OUTLAW 09]

Noticed that someone took the time to attempt to analyze the Putin "altered state of reality"---but with Orwell an interesting twist to say the least. Seems I am not the only one saying "altered state of reality" and Putin in the same sentence.

The article below is really interesting as it does go to the heart of this "altered reality problem" Putin is having--I really do believe he is truly believing his own propaganda which is extremely dangerous.

Orwell can help us understand what is happening to us as if we make a good-faith effort to use Russian media official sources to try to understand the world. Russian propaganda about Ukraine is today’s doublethink: it requires that people, as Orwell put it, “hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing both of them.” Russian propaganda daily pounds out two sides to every story, both of which are false, and each of which contradicts the other.

That is why he has not taken any off ramp or exit offered to him by the West--he simply does not "see" them--because in his "altered state" he is in fact "winning".

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/to-understand-putin-read-orwell-110551.html#.VAg6hWD8JMv

Core thesis:

After all, every attempt thus far at negotiation and cease-fire has been accompanied by a Russian escalation, to the point where we can be certain that this is not a coincidence. If Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with other leaders, we must simply expect that this is cover for the latest outrage, as with the entrance of Russian troops, armor and artillery during the recent talks in Minsk.

But we need to dig a bit deeper into the plot for the three concepts needed to understand this very strange war, in which Putin has radicalized Russian politics, destroyed a European peace order, challenged Europeans’ assumptions about their entire future — and even threatened nuclear war. Every reason proffered to explain a war that is pointless to the point of nihilism is obviously bogus or self-contradictory or both. To grasp this horrible event in which people are killing and dying for no discernible reason, we need to remember some key concepts from Orwell: Eurasia, doublethink and learning to love Big Brother.

To take these thoughts a step further Putin in his recent school visit and interview basically condemned the Communists and Lenin directly for allowing the Russian Army to fail during WW1.

An unusual step for a former KGB COL who owed his career to the Communist Party especially since the KGB was "the Sword and Shield of the Party".

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/putin-disses-lenin

.

[OUTLAW 09]

Story about Russian airborne trooper, who played Ukrainian "Berkut" trooper at the time of Crimean referendum.

http://argumentua.com/tainoe-stanovitsya-yavnym-kto-igral-rol-berkutovtsev-vo-vremya-krymskogo-referenduma

It appears from this link that this Russian soldier was in fact Russian SF, was in the Crimea in a Berkut uniform prior to changing into his Russian uniform---article indicates they have found with some ease three other Russian airborne types all wearing Berkut uniforms.

Begs the question---just how many so called Ukrainian Berkut in and around the Maidan were in fact Russian SF wearing Berkut uniforms and provoking the Maidan crowds with their aggressiveness and shooting of the demonstrators?

A large number of social media photos of this one Russian soldier.

http://en.inforesist.org/russian-paratroopers-who-got-lost-in-ukraine-used-to-kill-ukrainians-in-the-crimea-photo/

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin and his FM talk about how great the Russian ceasefire plan is but then they still do want to take over the land corridor all the way to Odessa---cutting the Ukraine off from it's sea ports, and building then a land link to the Crimea and the Moldavian enclave.

This is the "altered state of reality"---talking ceasefire to get NATO/EU to do minimum damage to their economy while driving even further into the Ukraine--all in the same breath.

NATO seems to now be confirming far higher numbers of Russian troops inside the Ukraine---which is what the Ukraine has been saying since 25 August.

Breaking News : The battle for Mariupol has started.
Tanks have left Novoazovsk, there has been fighting half way to Mariupol already. Volunteer battalions responding.

Confirmation from InfoResist ..
"Russian troops launched an offensive in the direction of Mariupol "

BREAKING The #RUS army URAGAN (BM27s) units were spotted in #Taganrog heading straight on #Mariupol.
https://www.facebook.com/irakli.komaxidze/posts/650772765035973 …

pic.twitter.com/zF0PQcbqjl

[OUTLAW 09]

There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.

Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.

KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.

There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.

There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/02/over-2000-bodies-of-russian-soldiers-killed-in-donbas-arrive-to-russia/

Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.

This seems to confirm the existence of mobile Russian military field crematoriums.

Seems like the Russian Army wants no existence of killed Russian soldiers to make it back to the motherland and their mothers.

This is #Russian army mobile crematorium brought to #Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6L0jiMloO8 …
http://informnapalm.org/916-armyya-rf-

[AmericanPride]

This is the "altered state of reality"---talking ceasefire to get NATO/EU to do minimum damage to their economy while driving even further into the Ukraine--all in the same breath.

How is that an "altered state of reality" and not realpolitik in its purest form?

[OUTLAW 09]

How is that an "altered state of reality" and not realpolitik in its purest form?

Then if "realpolitik" then there is no need to negotiate if I recall---as we know the end state---right?

Here is the current "realpolitik" that does not makes sense;

1. if the fighting has died down as the UA and independent BNs have all but pulled back as to not be encircled---then why the increased numbers of wounded and killed coming in---who is then doing the fighting?

Someone or something is causing a high rate of sudden causalities and it is not the Ukrainian Army---rumors have it as Ukrainian SF strikes against lone units not anticipating guerilla style raids.

BREAKING Since 11:00 fr #Mariupol to #Donetsk hospital local emergency brigades are on constant back-and-forth trips. Seems terrs die easily

2. if the Russian Army/Russian separatists are so well liked in eastern Ukraine then why do Russian troops at a Luhansk CPs ask those that are leaving to stay and they will get jobs?

Does that make sense to you and that is another example of "altered state of reality". At the height of the separatist movement Girkin was openly complaining he could not get more than 1000 Ukrainians to fight with him in the separatist movement--thus the heavy reliance on Russian mercenaries and now Russian troops.

BREAKING #Luhansk CPs are openly manned w #Russian army soldiers. Ask ppl not to leave the city. Promise jobs.

"Realpolitik" if you are referring to the German term as it was used by Brandt--entails a totally different meaning that just plain being stupid as a foreign policy--this ties into the Russian strategy of "believing one's own propaganda"---always a great idea.

Let's see;

1. Putin will have to take care of the south-east region for months/years to come---meaning food, water, jobs and get the electricity and water flowing much like he had to do in the Crimea but now cannot do

2. he has to get the economy going when he is having problems with that in the Crimea otherwise the locals will truly doubt it was worth it--plus the looting, robbing, killing and torturing by the separatists not the Ukrainian Army has to be explained away as what a separatist strategy in largely ethnic Russian area?

3. if literally driving the Ukraine out of it's non aligned status and fully into the EU---great goal there

4. if finally awakening NATO and fully focusing NATO on the from Russian out loud spoken nuclear and UW threats---great move there as well

5. if convincing most Europeans that Russia cannot be trusted on anything--well another great move

6. if destroying your own economy is a strategy---massive more on that strategy

7. having your banking system come to a stand still is what---worth it all?

8. having the Gazprom delivery contracts openly challenged in court--great move there as well

So again what do you mean by "realpolitik"? As I see nothing of that in the Russian current strategy---all I see is stupidity caused by an altered state of believing one's own propaganda.

[OUTLAW 09]

Then if "realpolitik" then there is no need to negotiate if I recall---as we know the end state---right?

Here is the current "realpolitik" that does not makes sense;

1. if the fighting has died down as the UA and independent BNs have all but pulled back as to not be encircled---then why the increased numbers of wounded and killed coming in---who is then doing the fighting?

Someone or something is causing a high rate of sudden causalities and it is not the Ukrainian Army---rumors have it as Ukrainian SF strikes against lone units not anticipating guerilla style raids.

BREAKING Since 11:00 fr #Mariupol to #Donetsk hospital local emergency brigades are on constant back-and-forth trips. Seems terrs die easily

AP--another set of reasons for high losses:

2. if the Russian Army/Russian separatists are so well liked in eastern Ukraine then why do Russian troops at a Luhansk CPs ask those that are leaving to stay and they will get jobs?

Does that make sense to you and that is another example of "altered state of reality". At the height of the separatist movement Girkin was openly complaining he could not get more than 1000 Ukrainians to fight with him in the separatist movement--thus the heavy reliance on Russian mercenaries and now Russian troops.

BREAKING #Luhansk CPs are openly manned w #Russian army soldiers. Ask ppl not to leave the city. Promise jobs.

"Realpolitik" if you are referring to the German term as it was used by Brandt--entails a totally different meaning that just plain being stupid as a foreign policy--this ties into the Russian strategy of "believing one's own propaganda"---always a great idea.

Let's see;

1. Putin will have to take care of the south-east region for months/years to come---meaning food, water, jobs and get the electricity and water flowing much like he had to do in the Crimea but now cannot do

2. he has to get the economy going when he is having problems with that in the Crimea otherwise the locals will truly doubt it was worth it--plus the looting, robbing, killing and torturing by the separatists not the Ukrainian Army has to be explained away as what a separatist strategy in largely ethnic Russian area?

3. if literally driving the Ukraine out of it's non aligned status and fully into the EU---great goal there

4. if finally awakening NATO and fully focusing NATO on the from Russian out loud spoken nuclear and UW threats---great move there as well

5. if convincing most Europeans that Russia cannot be trusted on anything--well another great move

6. if destroying your own economy is a strategy---massive more on that strategy

7. having your banking system come to a stand still is what---worth it all?

8. having the Gazprom delivery contracts openly challenged in court--great move there as well

So again what do you mean by "realpolitik"? As I see nothing of that in the Russian current strategy---all I see is stupidity caused by an altered state of believing one's own propaganda.

AP--here is a partial answer to the high rate of losses and wounded on the Russian side--the reports of this particular battle indicated from Russian propaganda side a humiliating loss for the Ukrainians and Russian TV was there live---then this today.

BREAKING Reports coming@ #Ilovaisk fields are littered w bodies of tank &scout unit fr #RUS 9th Vislenskaya SOF ОМСБр
pic.twitter.com/

More losses to explain the high rates:

BREAKING Today fr #Ilovaisk 800 dead bodies of #Russian army VDV soldiers has been collected. This was suppose to have been a major defeat for the Ukrainians--they had only 100 KIAs and 120 POWs

In this week alone 30 #Russian army soldiers fr #Kostroma got killed in war activities in #Ukraine

[AmericanPride]

Then if "realpolitik" then there is no need to negotiate if I recall---as we know the end state---right?

Whoever said that realpolitik does not include negotiations when negotiations achieve the interests of the state?


"Realpolitik" if you are referring to the German term as it was used by Brandt--entails a totally different meaning that just plain being stupid as a foreign policy.

If Russia has material interests, and if its actions achieve those material interests, then how is its foreign policy "stupid"?


1. Putin will have to take care of the south-east region for months to come---meaning food, water, jobs and get the electricity and water flowing much like he had to do in the Crimea but now cannot do

I'm fairly confident the Russians have already considered this; hence their reluctance to outright occupy or annex the region in the first place. And since the region is still de jure a part of Ukraine, it will legally be Kiev's responsibility to manage the problem, and the Russians I'm sure won't have any issues in offering their aid and advice.


2. he has to get the economy going when he is having problems with that in the Crimea otherwise the locals will truly doubt it was worth it--plus the looting, robbing, killing and torturing by the separatists not the Ukrainian Army

Why do you assume that the local population will blame Moscow and not Kiev for their problems?


3. if literally driving the Ukraine out of it's non aligned status and fully into the EU---great goal there

That remains to be seen - there's a wide gulf between potential and performance. Ukraine is not in the political or security situation to join EU or NATO without serious internal turmoil. And if a third of the country is occupied by the Russian army, NATO won't be inclined to invite Ukraine into the organization.


4. if finally awakening NATO and fully focusing NATO on the from Russian out loud spoken nuclear threats---great move there as well

Russia wants to be recognized as a great power, so how is that a criticism?


5. if convincing most Europeans that Russia cannot be trusted on anything--well another great move

What does trust have to do with realpolitik? The fundamental problem in international security is that there is no trust, and that the actions and statements of other states cannot be validated. And this is clearly evident in Russia's consistent distrust in the intentions of NATO since the collapse of the USSR.


So again what do you mean by "realpolitik"? As I see nothing of that in the Russian current strategy.

Of course you don't - you've been on an anti-Russian screed since the start of the crisis. Sure - Russia's behavior is not in the best interest of the U.S., but that does not mean that Russian leaders are living in an "altered state of reality" or that they are "irrational". Ignoring the facts that Russian elites do have goals, and have tied specific strategies and resources to these goals, is an "altered state of reality" that serves no useful purpose.

[OUTLAW 09]

Whoever said that realpolitik does not include negotiations when negotiations achieve the interests of the state?

Then AP you are fully aware of what is going on inside the combat zones right now---and yes in the towns and villages still under UA control after retaking them---even the ethnic Russians were happy to see them..

You have got to get out more often.

If I recall correctly you were the one appealing for "understanding Russian concerns and for totally negotiating correct---and what has that gotten you?

So with six off ramps for Putin---and he is still attacking the Ukraine and funneling in more troops and equipment and what has negotiations gotten you?

Does it honestly strike you Putin even wants an off ramp?

You do remember I stated a number of times he is coming across the border--that much was clear from his Duma speech if you took the time to reread it---all there to be fully understood.

Your not making much sense.

[AmericanPride]

So with six off ramps for Putin---and he is still attacking the Ukraine and funneling in more troops and equipment and what has negotiations gotten you?

Right - because the alternative to continued Russian escalation is what exactly? On the one hand you are claiming that Putin is an "altered state of reality" and is "irrational" but then on the other, you are condemning him for not making what you think is a rational decision to comply with Western demands. How much sense does that make???

If Putin is irrational and lives in an "altered state of reality", why do you think sanctions or military escalation by the West would produce predictable results or de-escalation? You seem most frustrated that Putin is not behaving in the way that you desire.

[AmericanPride]

Interesting article from the National Interest on Chinese perceptions of the Ukraine crisis (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-does-china-really-think-about-the-ukraine-crisis-11196):


With respect to Moscow’s ultimate aims in the current crisis, Colonel Fang seems to believe that Russia has seized Crimea as a “bargaining chip.” He suggests that the ultimate resolution of the crisis might be for the Crimea’s status to resemble that of South Ossetia (formally separate from the Russian Federation, but enjoying a high level of autonomy within a neighboring country). In an apparent expression of support for Russian actions, Colonel Fang asks that given the power vacuum in Kiev, “… who can say what is legal?” In addition, he writes: “[The Ukrainian opposition] … went too far … not anticipating that Russia would have such an intense reaction.”


For Colonel Fang, Russia has the initiative. The U.S. lacks military options, and “Russia does not fear,” according to this Chinese analysis. Russia’s “actual control” over Crimea is a decisive factor in the present crisis that the Chinese have not missed. True, some other Chinese analysts have been more circumspect, pointing to the prospect of major losses to the Russian economy (国际问题研究, April 2014), but many others, such as a Xinhua Russian expert writing in May 2014, seem to follow Colonel Fang’s interpretation and admire “Russia’s rejection of the West’s global leadership, its defense of its core interests, and its lack of hesitation in becoming the enemy of the West.”

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--here is a partial answer to the high rate of losses and wounded on the Russian side--the reports of this particular battle indicated from Russian propaganda side a humiliating loss for the Ukrainians and Russian TV was there live---then this today.

BREAKING Reports coming@ #Ilovaisk fields are littered w bodies of tank &scout unit fr #RUS 9th Vislenskaya SOF ОМСБр
pic.twitter.com/

More losses to explain the high rates:

BREAKING Today fr #Ilovaisk 800 dead bodies of #Russian army VDV soldiers has been collected. This was suppose to have been a major defeat for the Ukrainians--they had only 100 KIAs and 120 POWs

In this week alone 30 #Russian army soldiers fr #Kostroma got killed in war activities in #Ukraine


AP--see this is why you do not know what is going on inside the combat zones---right now there is a brutal Ukrainian SF guerrilla war--ie ambushing on lone Russian units as they are not massed as they would normally be in a more conventional war with tank on tank but rather spread out across the countryside.

Especially their fuel trucks and supply convoys.

Video: #Russian army vehicles burning bright @ #Mariupol on September 4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgvHYuhOCzA …

[AmericanPride]

AP--see this is why you do not know what is going on inside the combat zones---right now there is a brutal Ukrainian SF guerrilla war--ie ambushing on lone Russian units as they are not massed as they would normally be in a more conventional war with tank on tank but rather spread out across the countryside.

Especially their fuel trucks and supply convoys.

Video: #Russian army vehicles burning bright @ #Mariupol on September 4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgvHYuhOCzA …

That's great. Please elaborate on how that's relevant to terminating the conflict and shaping the political outcome. You know, like you predicted with the downing of the Malaysian airliner...

[OUTLAW 09]

That's great. Please elaborate on how that's relevant to terminating the conflict and shaping the political outcome. You know, like you predicted with the downing of the Malaysian airliner...

AP--you do realize what happened in Chechnya right when Russian military units flattened complete villages and towns via shelling---you don remember that right?

Battalion "#Azov" informs #Russian army over 5 hours straight shelled #Shyrokyne village. Purely civilian village. Many many houses gone.

This is the third Ukrainian town flattened since the Russian Army opened the southern front and yet you talk about what negotiations?

Right now the only thing that Putin is desperately trying to avoid is the mounting number of killed Russian soldiers becoming known within Russia ---and it is slowly getting out.

And that is what some Ukrainian units are contributing towards---a higher Russian toll in order to drive that message home inside Russia.

And based on the panic actions of the FSB on the social media side the FSB is losing that fight to the blogging community.

Call it the Ukrainian "realpolitik".

[AmericanPride]

AP--you do realize what happened in Chechnya right when Russian military units flattened complete villages and towns via shelling---you don remember that right?

Remind me again when the Chechen Republic achieved independence from Russia...

[OUTLAW 09]

Remind me again when the Chechen Republic achieved independence from Russia...

Remind me of just how many civilians died at the hands of the Russian Army.

I am giving you the benefit of the doubt---doubt seriously you have read the NATO/Russian Founding Agreements--right--you do know that Russia is in violation of those agreement right?

Taking you back to Chechnya and the shelling of towns and villages by Russian troops.

Take note--the videos and photos are now coming in:

#BreakingNews Nonstop Russian army artillery shelling hitting #Mariupol now.

Remember I said

1) he would cross--he did
2. he needs a land corridor to the Crimea from the Moldavian enclave--that is where the Russian Army is now headed--Odessa next stop.

This idea of "poor mistreated ethnic Russians" has been a smoke screen all along---he needs the entire Black Sea coast line for the wealth of oil and gas there and to effectively cut the Ukraine off from the sea thus making the Ukraine dependent on Russia for their exports and it gives him then his "buffer" that you claim the West does not get all the way to Kaliningrad.

And it gives him his Russian empire--which is where his head is as he is really a neo imperialist at heart---especially a former KGB COL who seems to be able to critique even Lenin for being wrong in 1918.

AP--think wider---you are to focused on the minuet picture.

But then that comes from not traveling much.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---more Ukrainian "realpolitik" being sent back to Russia.

Four Russian tanks crews destroyed with their tanks in the attack on Mariupol.

4 #Russian tank crews burned in & soldiers (from Russian Army unit 54046) fr в/ч 54046 Нижний Новгород/Дзержинск (9 отдельная мотострелковая бригада) KIA

[AmericanPride]

AP--think wider---you are to focused on the minuet picture.

This is coming from the poster who spams the forum with the movement updates of each Russian tank every five minutes? :rolleyes:


This idea of "poor mistreated ethnic Russians" has been a smoke screen all along

This is already well-known. It also implies that Russian elites are not "irrational" as you claim since they are deliberately using a ploy to deceive their adversaries.


he needs the entire Black Sea coast line for the wealth of oil and gas there and to effectively cut the Ukraine off from the sea thus making the Ukraine dependent on Russia for their exports and it gives him then his "buffer" that you claim the West does not get all the way to Kaliningrad.

That does not sound like an irrational actor at all. You have identified motive, means, and opportunity. Please explain again how Russia's activity is "irrational". It's also the Russians that claim they need a buffer - so perhaps you should take stock of what others are actually saying rather than projecting your own mentality on them and then critiquing them for acting differently from you. That'd be a great place to start your analysis.

[OUTLAW 09]

[QUOTE=AmericanPride;160874]This is coming from the poster who spams the forum with the movement updates of each Russian tank every five minutes? :rolleyes:


AP--and this is what Russia "realpolitik" ----come on AP you were the one that stated "we must understand the Russia side and we must negotiate"---how did that go for you?

And you are still stating negotiate---have you even read anything mentioned here in the last six months?

UKRAINE TODAY @uatodaytv

#Gazprom Production Plummets: Russian state gas giant hit by #ukrainecrisis http://youtu.be/J47pjMFHBbE

Let's see your what your comment on buffer entails---the last time I checked the Russians do not need a buffer for the following reasons that they themselves have stated since 2012--so again you fail to actually "understand them yourself".

1. have your read their 2012 nuclear strategy which entails first strike tactical use of nuclear weapons
2. the Russian military with Putin watched practiced last month a tactical nuclear strike on Poland and the Baltics---let's see during the Crimea a high level Duma rep threatened to nuke the West
3. they have violated the INF to give themselves nuclear long distance cruise missile abilities and then when caught at it claimed they might leave the treaty

The list can go on if you would like but then you have already read their nuclear doctrine right.

So if I threaten to use first strike tactical nuclear weapons then just why do I assume I need a buffer---does that make sense to you?

But again you seem to want to "understand" but that requires fully "understanding" exactly word for word they have released since 2012 does it not?

Then just maybe you can understand the concept of "altered state of reality" but then you did not read the Politico article did you?

[OUTLAW 09]

[QUOTE=AmericanPride;160874]This is coming from the poster who spams the forum with the movement updates of each Russian tank every five minutes? :rolleyes:


AP--and this is what Russia "realpolitik" ----come on AP you were the one that stated "we must understand the Russia side and we must negotiate"---how did that go for you?

And you are still stating negotiate---have you even read anything mentioned here in the last six months?

UKRAINE TODAY @uatodaytv

#Gazprom Production Plummets: Russian state gas giant hit by #ukrainecrisis http://youtu.be/J47pjMFHBbE

Let's see your what your comment on buffer entails---the last time I checked the Russians do not need a buffer for the following reasons that they themselves have stated since 2012--so again you fail to actually "understand them yourself".

1. have your read their 2012 nuclear strategy which entails first strike tactical use of nuclear weapons
2. the Russian military with Putin watched practiced last month a tactical nuclear strike on Poland and the Baltics---let's see during the Crimea a high level Duma rep threatened to nuke the West
3. they have violated the INF to give themselves nuclear long distance cruise missile abilities and then when caught at it claimed they might leave the treaty

The list can go on if you would like but then you have already read their nuclear doctrine right.

So if I threaten to use first strike tactical nuclear weapons then just why do I assume I need a buffer---does that make sense to you?

But again you seem to want to "understand" but that requires fully "understanding" exactly word for word they have released since 2012 does it not?

Then just maybe you can understand the concept of "altered state of reality" but then you did not read the Politico article did you?

Then again AP--let's look at your "buffer concept"--if you had been ever in the GDR during the 80s you would have seen for yourself that in order to attack Russia via an land attack the Germans would have to drive what about seven hours in a normal car travelling 120kms per hour JUST to get to Kiev--not even the Russian border---now translate that into tank time ---what about five days to make the seven hours--of course one could rail them but that would alert the Russians to a possible land attack sine they have as many recon satellites as we do these days.

So the idea of a say the Ukraine as a "sphere of influence" buffer zone makes about as much sense as a drop of water in the Mojave desert--but again that is your thinking not mine.

Let's see about the idea that the Kazahkstan was never a country and has Russians living in it being inside this "Russian sphere of influence".

Putin's statements not mine---so who is going to attack the Russian empire via Kazahkstan?

Let's see--the Baltics as a Russian "sphere of influence" buffer zone--they are so small width wise I am not sure just what kind of buffer that would be and since one can see literally across the Baltics--a ground attack against Russia would be seen any time night or day--not sure what Navy could currently pull off a landing invasion as well.

AP--you do realize just how ludicrous the idea in the 21st century is concerning the concept of "buffer zones are needed to avoid a ground attack"--right?

AP--you do realize that the term "spheres of influence" especially in Europe came out of Yalta and disappeared fully 25 years ago when the Wall came down--right?

So yes I fully understand the Russia line of argumentation but in the 21st century one would think Russian leaders would spend more time in figuring out how to improve the Russian standard of living not chasing a neo imperialistic dreams of the old Russian Empire than trying to figure out just how much land is needed between them and some alleged possible maybe sometime in the future land invasion.

So what is your explanation of the Russian need for a "buffer"? Once you have one--then explain it to NATO.

By the way if I were Putin I would spend far more time in figuring out my Islamist problems than worrying about the Ukrainians because longer term the Russian Islamist problems are far more threatening to Putin than the Ukrainians will ever be.

You have read the daily Interfax releases concerning the constant fighting between the Islamists and the GRU/FSB---right AP?