Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed [Archive] - Page 3

AmericanPride

09-04-2014, 07:29 PM

AP--and this is what Russia "realpolitik" ----come on AP you were the one that stated "we must understand the Russia side and we must negotiate"---how did that go for you?

The U.S. is not at war with Russia - so far, so good. Now how's your "no negotiations" position working out for the Ukrainians? And since you seem to think that the closer someone is to the conflict, the better they understand it - you might have missed that the Ukrainian president himself has participated in negotiations. So it seems to be that the credibility of argument is... well, nil.

And you are still stating negotiate---have you even read anything mentioned here in the last six months?

Yes - because, as stated repeatedly, the U.S. does not have the coercive means to reverse Russia's gains in Ukraine. The implication is that any Russian reversal will be voluntary; ergo, by negotiation. You still haven't described for anyone how sanctions will be effective in reversing Russia's achievements to date. Please elaborate.

---the last time I checked the Russians do not need a buffer for the following reasons that they themselves have stated since 2012-

It's always been Russian policy to protest NATO encroachment on their borders; i.e. to protest that there is no strategic space between Russia and the West. Russia's nuclear strategy does not change this calculus since there are a range of conflicts between peace and nuclear war (as evidenced by Ukraine).

So if I threaten to use first strike tactical nuclear weapons then just why do I assume I need a buffer---does that make sense to you?

If no geographic buffer exists to create strategic space, transitioning to a position of nuclear first strike makes perfect sense. The lack of space means a contraction of time, which increases the value of a first strike. But since you insist that the Russians are in an "altered state of reality", I don't expect you to understand their strategic perceptions.

OUTLAW 09

09-04-2014, 07:32 PM

[QUOTE=OUTLAW 09;160875]

Then again AP--let's look at your "buffer concept"--if you had been ever in the GDR during the 80s you would have seen for yourself that in order to attack Russia via an land attack the Germans would have to drive what about seven hours in a normal car travelling 120kms per hour JUST to get to Kiev--not even the Russian border---now translate that into tank time ---what about five days to make the seven hours--of course one could rail them but that would alert the Russians to a possible land attack sine they have as many recon satellites as we do these days.

So the idea of a say the Ukraine as a "sphere of influence" buffer zone makes about as much sense as a drop of water in the Mojave desert--but again that is your thinking not mine.

Let's see about the idea that the Kazahkstan was never a country and has Russians living in it being inside this "Russian sphere of influence".

Putin's statements not mine---so who is going to attack the Russian empire via Kazahkstan?

Let's see--the Baltics as a Russian "sphere of influence" buffer zone--they are so small width wise I am not sure just what kind of buffer that would be and since one can see literally across the Baltics--a ground attack against Russia would be seen any time night or day--not sure what Navy could currently pull off a landing invasion as well.

AP--you do realize just how ludicrous the idea in the 21st century is concerning the concept of "buffer zones are needed to avoid a ground attack"--right?

AP--you do realize that the term "spheres of influence" especially in Europe came out of Yalta and disappeared fully 25 years ago when the Wall came down--right?

So yes I fully understand the Russia line of argumentation but in the 21st century one would think Russian leaders would spend more time in figuring out how to improve the Russian standard of living not chasing a neo imperialistic dreams of the old Russian Empire than trying to figure out just how much land is needed between them and some alleged possible maybe sometime in the future land invasion.

So what is your explanation of the Russian need for a "buffer"? Once you have one--then explain it to NATO.

By the way if I were Putin I would spend far more time in figuring out my Islamist problems than worrying about the Ukrainians because longer term the Russian Islamist problems are far more threatening to Putin than the Ukrainians will ever be.

You have read the daily Interfax releases concerning the constant fighting between the Islamists and the GRU/FSB---right AP?

AP--this kind of explains Putin's actions:

The greater the stress we're under, the more likely we are to fall back on old ideas. Often catastrophic.

AmericanPride

09-04-2014, 07:39 PM

AP--you do realize just how ludicrous the idea in the 21st century is concerning the concept of "buffer zones are needed to avoid a ground attack"--right?

Unsurprisingly, you have a narrow way of viewing the concept.

AP--you do realize that the term "spheres of influence" especially in Europe came out of Yalta and disappeared fully 25 years ago when the Wall came down--right?

Disappeared according to whom? The "end-of-history" triumphialists? What has disappeared in the end of the Cold War was strict bipolarity in the international system. It does not mean that great powers no longer exert significant influences on the states around them, or that they no longer compete with one another for such influence. Since you're a self-proclaimed expert on the Middle East also, you no doubt recall the arguments around promoting Shias in Iraq's government risking pulling Iraq into Iran's... wait for it... sphere of influence at the expense of the U.S.

but in the 21st century one would think Russian leaders would spend more time in figuring out how to improve the Russian standard of living not chasing a neo imperialistic dreams of the old Russian Empire than trying to figure out just how much land is needed between them and some alleged possible maybe sometime in the future land invasion.

Why would you think that? It's already been discussed here and elsewhere why and how Russia is reverting to old patterns of behavior as it becomes more assertive internationally. But then again, that would run counter to your hysterical claims that Russia is an "irrational" "rogue state" operating in an "altered reality".

By the way if I were Putin I would spend far more time in figuring out my Islamist problems than worrying about the Ukrainians because longer term the Russian Islamist problems are far more threatening to Putin than the Ukrainians will ever be.

But you're not Putin, and that's the problem with your line of argument.

OUTLAW 09

09-04-2014, 07:41 PM

The U.S. is not at war with Russia - so far, so good. Now how's your "no negotiations" position working out for the Ukrainians? And since you seem to think that the closer someone is to the conflict, the better they understand it - you might have missed that the Ukrainian president himself has participated in negotiations. So it seems to be that the credibility of argument is... well, nil.

Yes - because, as stated repeatedly, the U.S. does not have the coercive means to reverse Russia's gains in Ukraine. The implication is that any Russian reversal will be voluntary; ergo, by negotiation. You still haven't described for anyone how sanctions will be effective in reversing Russia's achievements to date. Please elaborate.

It's always been Russian policy to protest NATO encroachment on their borders; i.e. to protest that there is no strategic space between Russia and the West. Russia's nuclear strategy does not change this calculus since there are a range of conflicts between peace and nuclear war (as evidenced by Ukraine).

If no geographic buffer exists to create strategic space, transitioning to a position of nuclear first strike makes perfect sense. The lack of space means a contraction of time, which increases the value of a first strike. But since you insist that the Russians are in an "altered state of reality", I don't expect you to understand their strategic perceptions.

So AP--simple question--just who is supposedly suppose to "attack" Russia pray tell?

The last time I checked not even NATO had any planning for such an attack as Europe as a whole had some how figured that the "spheres of influence thing" had died a slow death 25 years ago and that problems around the physical changing of borders by military force had disappeared as well 25 years ago and everyone in the EU had more problems with the Euro and employment than thinking about "invading" Russia.

So AP just where did this Russian paranoia come from---maybe they have not gotten over Hitler but what that was wait 70 or so years ago right?

And since then when were they "invaded" or threatened with "invasion"?

AmericanPride

09-04-2014, 07:47 PM

So AP--simple question--just who is supposedly suppose to "attack" Russia pray tell?

Ask the Russians. It's their security.

The last time I checked not even NATO had any planning for such an attack

And you're probably right. But then that goes back to that whole "trust" thing you mentioned earlier - how privy is Russia to NATO's military goals and strategies? What incentive does Russia have to trust NATO? You know, the basic prisoner's dilemma here. Russia has consistently chosen material security over principled trust. Given that Russia has always been on the outside of Europe's institutions, why would they do anything different in this scenario?

kaur

09-04-2014, 07:49 PM

I argue that:

● Russia is a revisionist power;
● It has the means to pursue its objectives;
● It is winning; and
● Greater dangers lie ahead.

I recommend that the United Kingdom and its allies:

● Give up any hope of a return to business as usual;
● Boost the defence of the Baltic states and Poland;
● Expose Russian corruption in the West;
● Impose sweeping visa sanctions on the Russian elite;
● Help Ukraine; and
● Reboot the Atlantic Alliance.

http://en.delfi.lt/opinion/edward-lucas-russia-is-winning.d?id=65745272#ixzz3CNBAXUR3

OUTLAW 09

09-04-2014, 07:55 PM

AP--another example of the Russian "altered state of reality"--the NATO/Russian Agreements are not treaties but a statement of intent between NATO and Russia---it was never intended to have treaty status and was so treated by all NATO countries.

Now Russia throws the accusation that nothing can be changed since it is a treaty--notice the subtle dialectic.

I have spent which you have not literally hours going over the meanings of words and definitions until the Russians found one that suited them--remember I mentioned here often that they have a hang up on legality there is a reason for that and this RIA press release depicts that hang to legality---but remember what Stalin once said to high level CP members--we will sign treaties, agreements, memos if they help us--but then we will ignore them when the time comes that it suits us.

MOSCOW, September 4 (RIA Novosti) - US President Barack Obama’s statement about the possibility of the US unilaterally amending the basic act streamlining Russia-NATO relations is wrong in legal and political terms, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

NOTE AP---what is in fact the legal terms of the Agreement--there are none by the way---it was never intended to be a treaty and was as such never ratified as a treaty by any member state---again AP notice how they hang on the term "legal".

NOTE AP--by the way the 1994 Budapest Memorandum is not being considered today by Russia to be "legal and nor binding"---notice how Stalin's 1939 words come back to haunt the West.

“Declaring that one country decided to amend a collective document signed by 28 states would be incorrect both in legal and political terms,” Lavrov said.

NOTE AP---see how they keep going back over the term legal?

The Russian minister said that the document was drafted by all members of the Russia-NATO Council and “can be amended only through a collective effort.”

The NATO-Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security was signed in 1997 and is the formal basis for current NATO-Russia relations. It defines the procedures of consultation, cooperation, joint decision-making and action of the two parties.

NOTE AP how they interpret the agreement--as if it is a treaty not a working agreement of intent.

In April, the Alliance suspended cooperation between NATO and Russia over Russia’s alleged role in escalating the crisis in Ukraine, something Moscow has repeatedly denied.

So AP--Russia has not be escalating problems in south/east Ukraine---right?

Come on AP--you have got to finally start "understanding what you are seeing".

OUTLAW 09

09-04-2014, 08:06 PM

AP--this is the Russian military "reality" on the ground inside the Ukraine.

Video: #Russian army shelling positions @ #Mariupol w GRAD MRLS (BM21s). This is by the way #Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7k6bHCoBcw …

Video was geo tagged and is in the Ukraine.

AmericanPride

09-04-2014, 08:29 PM

So AP--Russia has not be escalating problems in south/east Ukraine---right?

When did I ever state that? I'm starting to think that it's you that's living in an "altered state of reality".

we will sign treaties, agreements, memos if they help us--but then we will ignore them when the time comes that it suits us.

How is that behavior unique to Russia? I seem to recall that the U.S. is not recognizing the Budapest Memorandum as binding it to provide for Ukraine's security and territorial integrity. Your criticism of Russia is that it's a self-interested state. That's not a criticism. That's an observation.

Kaur,

Thanks for providing that op-ed. I disagree with some of his recommendations since he slides into moments of idealism, but otherwise, it's a good read.

kaur

09-04-2014, 08:49 PM

AP, you are welcome. It would be nice if you elaborate those idealistic points. Isn't your song words also carrying idealism?

17.05 FSB guy Strelkov (sitting on boxes of Russian ATGM-s (volunteers couldn't use because of lack of skills) and MANPAD-s) was claiming that there are so few volunteers to join the fight against Ukrainian forces. Where are all those harassed masses?

https://storify.com/ystriya/strelkov-seeks-volunteers

Then started inflow of Russian volunteers to foreign country.

Then Ukrainian units became skilled enough to fight the Russians volunteers (Chechens, Ossetians, Russian nationalists, fascists, orthodox conservatives etc) and end of operation was question of months. Those volunteers were fighting for people, who were not interested in fighting?

Then Russian regulars came in with several БТГр-s.

If you were Ukrainian, what could do? Keep silent or shout battle cry of freedom? Isn't this war of Independence for Ukrainians? Are Ukrainians objects of international relations or they do have their say?

AmericanPride

09-04-2014, 09:10 PM

AP, you are welcome. It would be nice if you elaborate those idealistic points. Isn't your song words also carrying idealism?

He asks: "Are we really proposing that countries which paid the greatest price for the mistakes of the 20th century (including many made by this country), and which the past masters of the Kremlin occupied and despoiled, should be once again subject to outside interference and oppression?"

I don't see how his question is relevant to what policies the U.K. (or the West in general) should be pursuing.

And my signature is more about celebrating the triumphs of the U.S. and less about formulating foreign policy. :)

If you were Ukrainian, what could do? Keep silent or shout battle cry of freedom? Isn't this war of Independence for Ukrainians? Are Ukrainians objects of international relations or they do have their say?

I don't criticize Ukraine's military response from a moral, legal, or ethical perspective. The Ukrainians have the right to defend their territorial integrity and this is a right recognized in international law. And I would have serious concerns about the importance of Ukrainian state-hood if there was not an armed response to some extent. That doesn't mean that their strategy and policy are sound, or that even the Ukrainians "should" win the conflict on their terms. It could happen, but I doubt it and there's more at stake than Ukraine's sovereignty. Who's interests will prevail? Who gains by the continuation and escalation of the conflict? I doubt the on-going destruction of one third of Ukraine through armed conflict is in Ukrainians' best interests.

OUTLAW 09

09-04-2014, 09:10 PM

When did I ever state that? I'm starting to think that it's you that's living in an "altered state of reality".

AP---I have provided you an example of the "Russian altered state of reality" as it applies say to the NATO-Russian accords complete with the Russian FMs comments accusing the US of wanting to make changes and yet you do not respond---strange is it not?

Notice I pointed out to you the Russian current inability to define what is and is not "legal" again from their "altered state of reality" and yet you say nothing.

My interpretation you do not have to accept but maybe the opinion of a legal expert from the Baltics might in fact say the same thing I have been saying about the NATO Agreement that the Russians for some strange reason think is "legal".

You really do need to read this as it actually counters the German view of the document which strangely parallels the Russian view.

Now AP as a good analyst read the Russian FMs comment concerning the NATO document and then read a legal experts views of the document and then tell me there is no Russian "disconnect into the altered reality"?

http://en.delfi.lt/central-eastern-europe/what-angela-merkel-doesnt-say-about-nato-russia-agreement.d?id=65739722#ixzz3CNSyhSPp

First, she says, the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, signed in Paris in 1997, is not, strictly speaking, an international treaty, but rather a political declaration. Second, Russia itself has breached the agreement with its actions in Ukraine.

Agreement scrapped by Russia itself

"I would like to note that the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, signed by NATO and Russia in Paris in 1997, is not an international treaty, so it gives rise to no legal obligations and is therefore more of a political declaration. In other words, this document, which was intended to lay down the foundations and procedures for NATO-Russia cooperation, sets out obligations that are not legal, but political in nature, and sticking to them is a matter of good will. Breaching these obligations does not lead to legal liability," Leonaitė says.

She says that the main objective of the NATO-Russia agreement was to build a sustainable peace in Europe. It is for this goal that NATO and Russia pledged to build their mutual relations on the basis of respect for international legal norms, for democracy and political pluralism, the rule of law, human rights and freedoms.

"As a matter of fact," Leonaitė says, "the preamble to the Founding Act states that 'Russia is continuing the building of a democratic society and the realisation of its political and economic transformation.' Most importantly, the Founding Act explicitly states the obligation to refrain from using armed force and threat of using armed force not only by one side against the other, but also against any other country, its sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence in any way that is incompatible with the principles set out in the UN Charter or the Helsinki Final Act. Moreover, it reaffirmed an obligation to respect other states' sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, inviolability of borders and national self-determination. Doubtlessly, these basic legal principles, which apply to the entire international community, are a precondition for the NATO-Russia political agreement to be viable."

The legal expert adds that recent developments in Eastern Europe leave little doubt that it is Russia that breached every single principles spelled out in the Founding Act, effectively rendering it null and void.

"In the current situation, therefore, there is little sense in talking about viability of these political obligations," Leonaitė says.

She notes that even if the 1997 Founding Act were a binding international treaty, Russia's aggression against Ukraine could be regarded as a major violation and a sufficient basis for NATO to terminate or suspend the treaty in compliance with the Vienna Convention rules.

NATO bases - violation or not?

Commenting on the oft-quoted argument that the Founding Act precludes setting up permanent NATO bases in the territories of eastern members, Leonaitė notes that the document refers to the security environment as it was in 1997. It has changed significantly since then, she says.

The NATO-Russia Founding Act states:

"NATO reiterates that in the current and foreseeable security environment, the Alliance will carry out its collective defence and other missions by ensuring the necessary interoperability, integration, and capability for reinforcement rather than by additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces. Accordingly, it will have to rely on adequate infrastructure commensurate with the above tasks. In this context, reinforcement may take place, when necessary, in the event of defence against a threat of aggression… Russia will exercise similar restraint in its conventional force deployments in Europe."

"The agreement clearly speaks of the 'current' - i.e., 1997 - and 'foreseeable' security situation. It is more than obvious that Russia's aggression against Ukraine (annexing Crimea and sending armed forces to Donbass) as well as its support for armed separatist groups in east Ukraine have effected essential changes in security environment," Leonaitė says.

According to her, in no way could such changes have been foreseen when the agreement was signed.

Leonaitė also notes that the Founding Act refers to "substantial" NATO capabilities in Eastern Europe. Several hundred US soldiers could hardly be treated as "substantial combat forces".

"Third, one cannot ignore Russia's reciprocal pledge to exercise 'similar restraint'. In 2007, Russia suspended its membership in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which is often described as the cornerstone of European security, and stopped observing restrictions laid out therein. Moreover, Russia deploys significant forces in Kaliningrad, much bigger than any potential NATO bases in the region," the legal expert concludes.

kaur

09-04-2014, 09:29 PM

AmericanPride

And I would have serious concerns about the importance of Ukrainian state-hood if there was not an armed response to some extent. That doesn't mean that their strategy and policy are sound, or that even the Ukrainians "should" win the conflict on their terms. It could happen, but I doubt it and there's more at stake than Ukraine's sovereignty. Who's interests will prevail? Who gains by the continuation and escalation of the conflict? I doubt the on-going destruction of one third of Ukraine through armed conflict is in Ukrainians' best interests.

AP, what is the US story with South Korea and Taiwan? Why US has bases there? Why commitments? Domino effect? Communist world revolution? Revival of rogue regime? Who cares about Korean cars and Taiwan computer makers? World is flat and you can outsource those consumer goods from China.

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 06:08 AM

AP--you failed to respond--notice this key sentence about a treaty that we even in Europe do not talk about much --notice the timeframe that Russia pulled out of the treaty and then I will take you back to 1939 and remind you of Stalin's words---we can sign treaties if they help us and then we an basically ditch them when we want if they no longer work for us.

Notice by the way the date of pullout 2007 and what then occurred in 2008?

European "Spheres of Influence" is so dead and Russian revivalists will not bring it back.

In 2007, Russia suspended its membership in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which is often described as the cornerstone of European security, and stopped observing restrictions laid out therein.

Moreover, Russia deploys significant forces in Kaliningrad, much bigger than any potential NATO bases in the region," the legal expert concludes.

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 06:35 AM

AP---another example of an "altered state of reality"---after they themselves (separatists and mercenaries) destroyed a rather large part of the Donbas critical infrastructure and via shelling massive civilian population/housing damage they state the following.

Who is going to pay for the improved standard of living---you think Russia will invest ?--ask the Crimea if they have seen the promised "billions yet"?

From Interfax from yesterday:

19:17 DPR administration wants to make living standards in DPR higher than in Ukraine

Now that is "altered".

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 11:58 AM

We should not forget the Russian GRU units which are mentioned a number of times --which can be used--when Russia is conducting it new military doctrine of UW.

Confirmation of GRU recon units inside the Ukraine--but of course they "must be on vacation" as Putin has repeatedly stated there are "no Russian troops inside the Ukraine".

Notice the provider of the photo---Ruptly--sits in Berlin with a staff of over 100---200% Russian owned propaganda media provider--right now they have since the Russian invasion a large number of media types with the Russia Army providing photos and videos to Western media outlets.

Ruptly is a key Russian player in the current info war machine.

IF IT SAYS, I'M A DUCK ...
#Russian GRU #Spetsnaz elite military formations,proudly fighting in #Shakhtarsk,#Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/507766611990679552

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 12:21 PM

I really do bet that in the "altered state of reality" Putin is currently in---he did not see this one coming at him and his Central Bank.

The Ukraine has more than amble evidence in both POWs to documents to voice intercepts to confirm Russian support, funding and equipment that was used in the destruction of critical Ukrainian infrastructure in an international court of law which has already ruled against Putin once with Yukos.

Ukraine has all grounds to demand from Russia to compensate losses for damage of infrastructure, including in international courts, a managing partner of Volkov & Partners law firm, Oleksiy Volkov has said.

AmericanPride

09-05-2014, 04:43 PM

we can sign treaties if they help us and then we an basically ditch them when we want if they no longer work for us.

As usual, your argument proves too much. How is that behavior unique to Russia or uniquely objectionable when conducted by Russia? In June 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty because in the words of President Bush, he concluded that "the ABM Treaty hinders our government’s ability to develop ways to protect our people from future terrorist or rogue-state missile attacks." In other words, the U.S. "ditched" a treaty because it "no longer worked" for it. Now - to follow your line of argument, you must critique every country that abandons a treaty because it perceives the utility of the treaty is no longer sufficient, including the U.S.

You have done this on several occassions. In your attempt to condemn the destruction of a civilian airliner by a air defense missile, you have argued that air defense missiles should be classified as weapons of mass destruction - even though every country employs air defense missiles. In your attempt to discredit my arguments, you have argued that those in closest proximity to the conflict are the most credible - meaning that Russian posters like mirhond should have more credibility than American posters, including yourself. I strongly recommend that you become more circumspect in your arguments.

Who is going to pay for the improved standard of living---you think Russia will invest ?--ask the Crimea if they have seen the promised "billions yet"?

That's a political question and one that will have an impact on the direction of Ukraine's political future and affiliations. How much will the West invest in reconstruction, and under what conditions? Would Kiev even welcome Russian finance at this point, given the obvious implications for continued Russian influence on Ukrainian political affairs? Ukraine does not have the financial resources to rebuild one third of the country. It will have to ask for external aid. And that will have an impact on the country's political alignment.

The Ukraine has more than amble evidence in both POWs to documents to voice intercepts to confirm Russian support, funding and equipment that was used in the destruction of critical Ukrainian infrastructure in an international court of law which has already ruled against Putin once with Yukos.

This is possible - but given that enforcement against Russia is impossible considering its position on the UNSC, I doubt anything will come of it. Russia would likely follow the U.S. lead demonstrated in The Republic of Nicaragua v. The United States of America. In the Yukos case, it was the Permanent Court of Arbitration that made the determination - not the same thing as typical courts, and with even less enforcement mechanisms than the ICJ. So exactly how will Ukraine pursue and enforce a judgment against Russia if Russia refuses to pay up?

Firn

09-05-2014, 05:14 PM

Ukraine and pro-Russia rebels sign ceasefire deal (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29082574)

According to the BBC:

The Ukrainian government and pro-Russian rebels have signed a truce deal to end almost five months of fighting.

The two sides, meeting in Belarusian capital Minsk, agreed to stop firing at 15:00 GMT. However, the rebels said the truce had not changed their policy of advocating separation from Ukraine.

Now nobody knows of course how long this ceasefire will last and the political positions are obviously wide apart with the aggressor not even officially involved and only getting 'informed'.

President Petro Poroshenko said the ceasefire was based on a 12-point peace plan that included the release of "hostages", which he said would probably happen on Saturday.

"It is very important that this ceasefire lasts long, and during this ceasefire we continue the political dialogue to bring peace and stability," he said.

One can only speculate what motivated Putin and Poroshenko to reach that ceasefire. Some possible explanations:

The Kremlin's possible views:

1) Putin might want avoid the new turn of heavier sanctions which might hurt heavily and already weak Russian economy

2) Putin could fear a negative public fallout of further casualities in an invasion not supported by the Russian population. There have been already to many to hide.

3) Putin might be convinced that the Ukrainian forces took enough of a beating in the recent fightings to make a new offensive unlikely.

Kyiv's possible views:

1) Right now with so many Russian regulars inside there is no hope of military victory for the time being.

2) The ceasefire gives the Ukrainian forces to regroup and replenish with some Western help after the heavy casualities suffered in the last days.

3) It also means lower loss of life for Ukrainian citiziens, although it is likely that the speratists will continue to kidnapp, torture and murder

4) The heavily suffering economy might get more easily supported without fighting a war.

5) The political elections could give the Poroshenko and his allies a large majority in the legislative branch.

6) The Western sanctions and the weak Russian economy might suffer relatively more in the next months.

The conflicting Western view:

1) Overall of the ceasefire might raise some hope that a 'political solution' if hard to see what it might, could possibly be achieved. Most should be highly sceptical.

2) Some might be happy if no new sanctions 'have to be' put in place: Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Cyprus are very likely among them with Austria, Finland as well as Italy and France being possibly not far behind. Some European economies have suffered some damage and would like to avoid further problems.

3) Others might be disappointed not have pushed the new sanctions through and could see Putin's offering as a smokescreen and cheap diversion.

We will see...

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 10:04 PM

[QUOTE=Firn;160911]Ukraine and pro-Russia rebels sign ceasefire deal (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29082574)

What ceasefire plan/agreement---from seven seconds ago this evening.

BREAKING #Russian terrorists in #Donetsk just moments ago started to shell Donetsk airfield again. 

BREAKING #Russian army tank column just moved in for #Debaltseve trying to form new kettle for #Ukraine forces there. Ceasefire?

TODAY from Estonia we get Russian cross border abductions by their special services---that usually means FSB/GRU:

3. Russia admitted this is the work of their special services

2. Just back from KAPO. Confirmed that abduction occurred in the course of cross border corruption investigation. Documented. On Estonian soil.

1.Lithuania's FM tells me abduction in #Estonia a "bold provocation". He learned from Estonian counterpart attackers did not wear uniforms

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 10:17 PM

[QUOTE=AmericanPride;160910]As usual, your argument proves too much. How is that behavior unique to Russia or uniquely objectionable when conducted by Russia? In June 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty because in the words of President Bush, he concluded that "the ABM Treaty hinders our government’s ability to develop ways to protect our people from future terrorist or rogue-state missile attacks." In other words, the U.S. "ditched" a treaty because it "no longer worked" for it. Now - to follow your line of argument, you must critique every country that abandons a treaty because it perceives the utility of the treaty is no longer sufficient, including the U.S.

You have done this on several occassions. In your attempt to condemn the destruction of a civilian airliner by a air defense missile, you have argued that air defense missiles should be classified as weapons of mass destruction - even though every country employs air defense missiles. In your attempt to discredit my arguments, you have argued that those in closest proximity to the conflict are the most credible - meaning that Russian posters like mirhond should have more credibility than American posters, including yourself. I strongly recommend that you become more circumspect in your arguments.

Ah AP--the individual here who projected the argument that negotiations was the way forward with little else behind the theory.

EXPLAIN this statement after Russia supported a "ceasefire".

Want to explain their thinking and now the shelling that is still continuing AFTER the timeframe for all shellings to cease.

Waiting to see your response---ample evidence again of what you seem to think does not occur in political reality--"an altered state of reality" .

Below is about as "altered of thinking as one can get these days".

But again it is Russia you sell here that needs to be what "understood"---come on AP "understood"?

BREAKING #Russian ambassador to #OSCE said #Mariupol will be liberated as it belongs to #Donetsk region. WHAT????

AP---here is a perfect example of Russian thinking---hey we have a new land locked country called New Russia but it needs a port outlet for all that coal and steel exports so lets' just imagine that Mariupol is just part and parcel of Donetsk---so again AP you support this thinking correct?

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 10:31 PM

See AP---here is another really great example of an "altered state of Russian reality" that even you must have to think through a little bit.

Let's see---Putin has for how long denied, denied and denied again and again---no troops in the Ukraine, but then some kind of Russian military=--no wait "vacationers" somehow got "lost" and ended up 80 kms inside the Ukraine and along the way some of them got killed and were then "secretly" buried and paid no death compensation to their wives and or parents, but wait did not the FSB beat up a Russian politician for trying to find out the truth behind their deaths-oh and again was not the Russian Mothers for the Miltary told their were not a "foreign agent NGO"-and then again and again in in front of TV cameras did not the Russian FM and Putin state "no Russian troops in the Ukraine".

You mention here that we "should attempt to understand the Russian complaints"---how about just trying to understand their "altered state".

Explain this one AP:

Now that the truth can not be hidden anymore,@RT_com sells #Russian_invaders (all RF #army background) as heroes! ... pic.twitter.com/xtSZ8TKWgt

Come on AP even you must admit this is really a Russian stretch of the "altered reality"---at first they were not even there, then lost, and then lost and vacationing and WHAT now "heros"?

All of that since 25 August---.

AP--another great example of the Russian "altered state of reality"---is it not usually an existing government that makes a war usually "legal" by some sort of political statements, acts, or declarations?---right AP?

Then explain just why this organization had to publish a long statement with multiple signatures in Isvestia today in Moscow.

Since when is a War Veterans group a policy deciding element of government that can declare war on another country---come on AP think about it.

#RUS Union of War Veterans wrote public addressing on war in #Ukraine what's considered as "legalization" of the war.

Hard to read if one does not speak Russian but it is in fact a formal "legalization" of the Russian war with the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/507996779338821632

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 10:46 PM

Not sure just what ceasefire the Ukrainians signed today but it definitely was not with the Russian Army which is still after the time line shelling Ukrainian positions.

AP just another "normal" example of "negotiation results" when one thinks one is dealing in full faith with Russia.

Come on AP even you have to admit--Putin got a great deal---and his Army continues to fight.

Worrying reports from #Debaltsevo indicate a massive Russian tank force has either surrounded the 25th Ukr brigade OR is even attacking it.

This came in 15 minutes ago from the field.

Notice AP the field reporting states Russian tank force not a "separatist tank force".

OUTLAW 09

09-05-2014, 10:53 PM

Another great example today indicating the massive "altered state of Russian reality".

Standard mantra---no Russian troops and equipment inside the Ukraine--even from Putin and his FM.

BREAKING #Russia is considering giving "participant of war activities" status for survived soldiers of #Pskov VDV div

Now suddenly the "on vacation and lost airborne brigade was what?----"participating in war activities"?

Now that is a stretched "reality" since many were buried in secrecy and their families not even told they had been killed in the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/507950991644557312

AmericanPride

09-05-2014, 11:49 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 06:50 AM

Outlaw,

You are acting like nobody knows that Russian troops are operating in Ukraine. That much is obvious - and frankly, it that fact only makes the problem more difficult for the West to actually address. It does also make it more difficult to dislodge the insurgents; the problem to which none of you proposed solutions actually apply.

So - unlike your predictation - Kiev and Moscow negotiated a cease-fire with the intention to create more political space for a final settlement. Whether that happens now or later and what kind of points it will contain remains to be seen but at the end of the day, your dire warnings about the "irrational" Russians living in their "altered state of reality" have yet to come to fruition. Moscow has not annexed eastern Ukraine. The destruction of a civilian airliner did not elicit an escalated response by the West or produce any notable political consequences. And Kiev is interested in a negotiated settlement, not a fight to the death, with Russia. Can you highlight for me where your predictions have come to fruition?

Quiet frankly AP I keep getting amazed at how much you actually support Russia---first "we must negotiate", then we must "understand them", then hey they can do as they want to because we have done so in the past also---that is always a great theme, and what the next step we should invite them home for Thanksgiving?

Russia and it's current elite are nothing more nor less than a new form of neo imperialists cloaking themselves in the guise of ethno nationalists but fascist in nature as represented by the eight fascist fighting groups from Russia inside the Ukraine and which were allowed to cross the border by the FSB.

AP--why do not start a thread on Russian fascism as it is there by all known definitions that even you can follow.

Let's see NATO says we will defend Estonia under Article 5, Obama goes to Estonia and gives a major speech and then less than 24 hours late the FSB in typical NKVD fashion kidnap ON Estonia soil a KAPO CI officer and taken him back to Russia. Now that my friend is up in your face pure Russian fascismit at work.

This is the Russia you claim the West "should understand and negotiate with"?

Come on AP--expand you comments to now say the current fascist neo imperialism that is actually there to be seen by one and all---

Am happy though that you finally made it through to the other side in admitting "well maybe Russian troops are inside the Ukraine" and you finally admitted that I was correct in the simple fact Putin was crossing at all costs and by the way he is still not finished with the Ukraine.

Watch the next ten days for small forward movements of the Russian troops inside the Ukraine---he still wants his land corridor to the Crimea.

AND by the way AP--Putin's economy is not tanking? an will continue downward-----come on AP follow the economic reporting---and by the way watch the stock market and Rubel on Monday morning after the sanctions from yesterday and then mention your comment on what was predicted--did it not in fact occur.

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 09:46 AM

AP--here is your problem as you have never been a part of the tip of the spear on implementing US foreign policy nor really understand UW and or political warfare.

It is how you view say Russia through the lens of your own personal biases.

In order for you to fully understand Russia you really need to think through the following which was taken from another thread.

SACEUR knows that we need to be able to counter political and unconventional warfare. The Latvians and Poles have described Russia's new generation warfare (Latvia) and Russian information warfare (Poland) the best in their reports this past spring

QUOTE: NATO members, especially the Baltic states that border Russia, must take into account such tactics as allies prepare for future threats, he said. That means steps should be taken to help build the capacity of other arms of government, such as interior ministries and police forces, to counter unconventional attacks, including propaganda campaigns, cyberassaults or homegrown separatist militias.

“What we see in Russia now, in this hybrid approach to war, is to use all the tools they have ... to stir up problems they can then begin to exploit through their military tool,” said Breedlove, NATO’s supreme allied commander.

By building up pre-crisis capabilities to deal with such tactics, nations will be better able to assign responsibility to an aggressor nation, which is key to triggering NATO involvement in a crisis, Breedlove said.

“When you cannot attribute (to an aggressor), this causes problems,” Breedlove said. “But the moment we attribute these actions to an aggressor nation, now this is Article 5. So we need to build the nations’ ability to fight through that first onslaught, attribute to an aggressor nation, and then NATO Article 5 kicks in.” END QUOTE

I hate to beat a dead horse but we should pay attention to our own George Kennan who described this in 1948:

•Political warfare is the logical application of Clausewitz's doctrine in time of peace. In broadest definition, political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. Such operations are both overt and covert. They range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures (as ERP--the Marshall Plan), and "white" propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of "friendly" foreign elements, "black" psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.
http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/65ciafounding3.htm

If you understand the above then you would not be writing much of what you write.

If you look simply at the issue Russia has since Putin took over in 2001 done the following;

1. implemented a new military doctrine called New Generation Warfare which is UW based in support of their version of political warfare-- released 2013
2. implemented a new nuclear strategy based on the presumption of first strike tactical abilities-revised and released 2012
3. completely rebuilt and modernized their armed forces under the 2020 Program--introducing many new systems that the West cannot even match
4. defined and exercised their UW strategy in first Georgia and then Moldavia starting in 2008
5. since 2008 have created and maintained three enclaves protected by Russian troops using actually elements of the Ukraine events as well as Crimea
6. have stationed far more than the per agreement "allowed" number of Russian military personnel in Kaliningrad since 1995

NOW AP during all of the above items what exactly was the Western view and or actions taken?---Absolutely nichts, nada, nothing. AND yet you say we must "understand" Russian complaints.

Then on top of the above Russia has;
1. violated the INF by testing and fielding a tactical nuclear cruise missile system all the while arguing that the US missile defense system was pointed at them which it was not--and you will notice the cruise missile was being developed long before the anti missile system discussion
2. Russia refused to disarm and destroy over 2000 armored vehicles many of which are now in the Ukraine under their signed OSCE agreements
3. Russia backed out of the European Conference Treaty
4. Russia is in full violation of the Budapest Agreements
5. Russia is in full violation of the Helsinki Accords
6. Russia is openly discussing possible violation and backing out from the INF

AND again AP what was the Western actions, reactions or statements to this? Nichts, nada, nothing if I recall correctly.

THEN came along Putin and forcibly changed the existing borders of a European country ie the Crimea (first time that has been done since 1945) via armed annexation and all they got for it was an economic sanctions regime---did it really change Putin's mind---nichts, nada, nothing that I can see at the moment.
Because it did not truly hurt him.

Russia has under their new nuclear first strike concept actually practiced the tactical field use of nuclear weapons strikes on Poland and the Baltics.

By the way I cannot even recall since 1980 when NATO even practiced a tactical nuclear strike in any of their Reforger exercises.

Russian Duma politicians openly threatened the use of nuclear weapons against the US during the Crimea crises.

There is mounting physical geo tagged evidence from Russian social media that in fact Russia had GRU/SF/FSB personnel inside the Ukraine since Feb 2014.

AND then Russia kidnaps yesterday a Estonian Federal CI officer and admits to it in their media.

By the way AP have you ever stopped and asked yourself why Russia/Putin and his FM have been so adamant about no Russian troops in the Ukraine and why the Russian Army wears no names and or is on "vacation"---simple---when NATO cannot clearly define the military personnel to be from a specific country ie Russia then "legally" Article 5 cannot be implemented---AND the Russians know this---WHY because under the NATO Russian Founding Act--Russia sits in all NATO meetings and PACE.

It is exactly this camouflage technique that contributes to my statement "altered state of reality".

Truly attempt to understand "altered reality" because it will be with us as long as Putin is in power unless a true younger generation of Russian leaders emerge out of his mess.

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 10:14 AM

AP--see how the Russia you claim we must "understand" as they have a right for a "sphere of influence" is now carrying out in the Donbas occupied zones.

Russian military/FSB/GRU are now passing out Russian Passports within the Donbas areas occupied by them. AP---Does this sound vaguely familiar to you ---it should ie Georgia, Moldavia and the Crimea--now eastern Ukraine.

So again AP--here comes the annexation which if I recall correctly JMA here stated would be exactly happening if the West did not massively respond.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/05/russian-passports-handed-out-in-occupied-cities-in-eastern-ukraine-first-steps-in-annexation-of-donbas/

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 10:24 AM

AP---continued/increased Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory under the cover of a ceasefire---which seemed to be for only the separatists and Ukrainian Army not the Russian Army.

http://burkonews.info/activity-russian-troops-taganrog-mariupol-area/#more-1368

Notice they are heading towards the Mariupol port city the gateway to Odessa and the land corridor I told you Putin still wants---especially since the Russian OSCE Ambassador declared Mariupol as part of the Donbas region as has Odessa been declared several weeks ago by Russian Duma politicians.

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 03:46 PM

It appears that now even the Russian Orthodox Church is getting into the "war" thing inside the Ukraine.

Here is a poster that has been posted in a number of Moscow/St Petersburg locations where the Russian Church is advertising "paid vacation positions inside the Ukraine" for drivers and gunners of the advertised armored vehicles.

I have mentioned here a number of times that the Russian government is made up of four distinct groupings and to a degree some exhibit signs of being fasicist in nature.

1. the internal security services
2. the Russian mob and related east European criminal gangs
3. the oligarchs
4. the military services

And layered over these four groups is the Russian Church.

Putin is just a mediator among these five groupings.

Great example of this below.

https://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/508254859490263040/photo/1

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 04:04 PM

Appears that now even "The Economist" is writing that Putin is in an "altered state of reality" with his current thinking. And if one reads between the lines the Economist is basically saying the weak response initially by both the UE/US simply enabled him to move forward.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21615582-sad-reality-vladimir-putin-winning-ukraine-west-must-steel-itself

It seems as well that the Washington Post from today agrees that if the West had the vision that military force could settle the Ukrainian issues as did Putin believe in military force we would not be where the West is today declaring that sanctions worked thus the ceasefire.

That view is not seconded by the WP.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russia-sees-a-military-solution-in-ukraine-even-if-the-west-doesnt/2014/09/05/9dcc6c28-3527-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html

AmericanPride

09-06-2014, 04:43 PM

Quiet frankly AP I keep getting amazed at how much you actually support Russia---first "we must negotiate", then we must "understand them", then hey they can do as they want to because we have done so in the past also---that is always a great theme, and what the next step we should invite them home for Thanksgiving?

I'm amazed at how consistently you mis-characterize and misconstrue other people's statements - almost like you were trained by the KGB. Stop making stuff up.

Russia and it's current elite are nothing more nor less than a new form of neo imperialists cloaking themselves in the guise of ethno nationalists but fascist in nature as represented by the eight fascist fighting groups from Russia inside the Ukraine and which were allowed to cross the border by the FSB.

If you have ever read and understood what I said - and not what you believe I have said - you will see that I've stated on more than one occasion that the Russian government is currently in the control of an alliance of realists and nationalists, and that this coalition shapes the policy preferences of the Russian state. What I have not heard from you is a practical way to manage relations with the Russian state that does not involve the potential escalation to nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia.

AP--why do not start a thread on Russian fascism as it is there by all known definitions that even you can follow.

Why don't you tell me how that's relevant?

Am happy though that you finally made it through to the other side in admitting "well maybe Russian troops are inside the Ukraine" and you finally admitted that I was correct in the simple fact Putin was crossing at all costs and by the way he is still not finished with the Ukraine.

Where did I state that Russian troops are not in Ukraine - or are you making stuff up again?

AND by the way AP--Putin's economy is not tanking? an will continue downward-----come on AP follow the economic reporting---and by the way watch the stock market and Rubel on Monday morning after the sanctions from yesterday and then mention your comment on what was predicted--did it not in fact occur.

Again - you are making stuff up. The sanctions have not compelled a reversal in Russian gains. Ergo, the sanctions are ineffective. Or is your idea of success the destruction of the economy of a nuclear armed state. Seems like the Russians aren't the only ones living in an "altered state of reality..." :rolleyes:

AP--here is your problem as you have never been a part of the tip of the spear on implementing US foreign policy nor really understand UW and or political warfare.

You have no idea what I've done or not done - this is again a case of you making stuff up.

Russian Duma politicians openly threatened the use of nuclear weapons against the US during the Crimea crises.

Yes - just like U.S. Representatives in Congress called for using nuclear weapons against Mecca and Medina during the War on Terrorism. Why should low-level Russian politicians be taken more seriously than American ones?

By the way AP have you ever stopped and asked yourself why Russia/Putin and his FM have been so adamant about no Russian troops in the Ukraine and why the Russian Army wears no names and or is on "vacation"---simple---when NATO cannot clearly define the military personnel to be from a specific country ie Russia then "legally" Article 5 cannot be implemented---AND the Russians know this---WHY because under the NATO Russian Founding Act--Russia sits in all NATO meetings and PACE.

Why would Russia want to avoid triggering Article 5 in a country that is not a part of NATO??? :confused:

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 05:56 PM

For those commenters here that do not believe and or want to believe Putin is holding where he is---this was played a couple of times today on several leading Russian TV channels in Moscow and St. Petersberg---indicates the need for a land corridor to the Moldavian enclave and then connecting to the Crimea.

Russia needs the land corridor via Odessa to give Transnistria a sea port.

#Russia is already ramping up its propaganda for its next target #Transnistria. Using "1930s-Danzig" styled rhetoric.

pic.twitter.com/5mFFgNkDWz

https://twitter.com/MaksCzuperski/status/505787136294277120/photo/1

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 07:30 PM

This was tweeted into Merkel from a German PACE rep who was in Luhansk the last few days after Russian troops arrived there.

Looks like the annexation of Luhansk is underway as some have said here would occur if Putin not forcibly stopped as that is about the only thing that gets his attention these days.

Appears Ukrainian ethnic cleansing is starting via the handing out of Russian passports similar to the Crimea.

Annexation of eastern Ukraine---wonder what negotiations will get out of this move by Russia--there is now no going backwards--any future negotiations over the eastern Ukraine will fail and as they will with the Crimea.

In a series of Tweets today, German MP and member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Marieluise Beck described the Russian occupation in Luhansk as she saw it – and the ominous signs of its potential annexation.

Occupation & infrastructure

In the messages, Beck says that the city is “full of Russian soldiers,” and that an engineering brigade has already begun the reconstruction of infrastructure, including electrical lines, to Russia.

Columns of Russian armor and thousands of troops have been seen in the region in recent days.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already called for discussions on the region’s “statehood” and Russian-installed officials have announced bilateral negotiations with Moscow “at the highest level” over the supply of Russian gas to occupied territory via a Luhansk pipeline. Such negotiations bypassing Kyiv would confer de facto recognition of southern Luhansk as being independent from Ukraine.

“In Moscow we have discussed the issues concerning the heating season and gas. We have a separate pipeline and we were guaranteed to receive gas supplies. The pipeline comes into the Lugansk region and covers the Donetsk region. We are the only two regions that in general do not rely on Ukraine,” Leonid Baranov, the Donetsk Republic’s so-called “Minister of State Security” told Russian media.

Russian passports

Mirroring Crimea, Beck also confirms that Russian passports are already being handed out in the city, and that Russian soldiers are distributing to locals cash sums of Russian currency.

After the Russian-Georgian ceasefire, Russian-backed police in South Ossetia forced ethnic Georgians to accept Russian passports or leave, amounting to ethnic cleansing.

Ominous similarities

Since signing a ceasefire agreement with Georgia two weeks ago, the Russian military and its local allies have carved a substantial buffer zone around the tiny enclave. To consolidate its latest conquests, Moscow has shipped in what Georgian officials describe as “industrial batches” of passports.

“The Russians are telling everyone in the town they must take a Russian passport,” said Akhalgori shopowner Guram Chkhvidze. “One came to me and explained that if I did not take it, my safety could not be certain. I was scared, so I am leaving.”

The Telegraph, August 30, 2008

Linguistic and religious Russification

Russification has also begun in the school system, with Beck also informing that lessons are already being conducted with Russian school textbooks. In Crimea, the Ukrainian language was summarily banned from schools by Russia.

“The Ukrainian church and the mosque in Luhansk have been closed. The Ukrainian-Orthodox priests had to flee,” read another tweet by the German MP observer.

Previously during the occupation and annexation of Crimea by Russian forces, Ukrainian Catholic were forced to flee the peninsula under threat of arrest and property seizures. “All my parishioners are patriotic Ukrainians who love their Crimean homeland. But Russia is now seeking to drive us out,” Father Milchakovskyi told the Catholic News Service in April. The Ukrainian Catholic Church was banned under the Moscow regime from 1946 to 1989, resulting in many clergymen arrested and Church property appropriated by the state and Russian Church.

New Russia or Novorossiya, Russia’s name for the occupied parcels of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, has already embedded in its policy that it will act as a monolingual Russian state, with the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian Orthodoxy acting as the official state religion.

What next?

This story will develop in the coming days with a Tuesday press conference already scheduled by Russian-installed officials. The ongoing ceasefire may just be the calm needed to begin the process of solidifying Russian hegemony in the region, as occurred in Georgia. It remains to be see what form of annexation will take place: be it the formal annexation of Luhansk and neighboring Donetsk, facilitating their recognition as vassal states the model of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or unofficial recognition as Russia maintains with Transnistria.

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 08:03 PM

An ambush occurred today after the ceasefire--was conducted by Russian SF.

Today 11 soldiers from volunteer battalion Aidar were killed by russian specnaz in near #Luhansk. ceasefire???

Despite the announced ceasefire, dozens of Aidar bat'n reported killed by Rus spetsnaz at Vesela Gora, Lugansk reg

http://glavred.info/zhizn/batalon-aydar-popal-v-zasadu-rossiyskogo-specnaza-pogibla-chast-roty-289460.html …

This was the Russian SF team that ambushed the BN today after the ceasefire---photo was taken on 21 June 2014 in St. Petersberg

https://twitter.com/hronoslog/status/508247530753110016/photo/1

Further ceasefire violations today--by Russian troops.

Ukraine Reporter @StateOfUkraine

#Ukraine ceasefire started w/ RU attack at UA. All UA killed, no POW. RU made triumphant pics.
http://vk.com/id106612536?z=photo106612536_339254910%2Fphotos106 612536 …
pic.twitter.com/2Xsi5yr4kz

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 08:15 PM

I had mentioned after the ceasefire was announced--who was the ceasefire for?--- as it seemed to not apply to Russian troops---this evening there are six different major reports with photos and videos of large number of Russian troops moving across the border into Luhansk and near the Mariupol port city.

Notice this photo of the Russian troops that arrived today in Luhansk---all dressed in same uniforms and no markings what so ever--remind anyone of the Crimea?

And this was achieved through "negotiations"?

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/508316700673343488/photo/1

It seems the carrot and stick approach tied to "negotiations" has been seen by others as simply not working--thus the Russian unanswered further annexations.

Weak US & EU response to Russia’s aggression placed Putin in position to carve another piece from Ukraine ---from WPO today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russia-sees-a-military-solution-in-ukraine-even-if-the-west-doesnt/2014/09/05/9dcc6c28-3527-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 08:54 PM

Separatists have now broken the ceasefire and are engaging Ukrainian Army.

The ceasefire was a smoke screen and was designed to get far more Russian troops into the Ukraine without the West "looking".

"Ukrs have just taken Telmanovo. The junta have broken ceasefire. Bezler's guys are now engaged in military action"--this was published on a pro Russian blog from Girkin

BREAKING #Bezler aka #Bes fighter several hours ago accused #Ukraine in violating ceasefire. Now they announced resuming military activities.

More Russian armor headed to Mariupol after the so called cease fire.

BREAKING #Russian army deployed its armour vehicles to #Pokrovskoe, close to #Taganrog, next to highway to #Mariupol.

pic.twitter.com/Xw3MNJzkMS

Critical:

#Ukraine Definitely shelling outside Mariupol. Hear it loud and clear now. Started 2235 local.

Reports of heavy artillery fire east of #Mariupol #Ukraine.

BBC correspondent in Ukraine @fergalkeane47 says hearing sustained shelling for last hour in #Mariupol

Fergal Keane ✔ @fergalkeane47

#Ukraine Shelling Started again and feels closer. Feel ground vibrating and windows shaking.

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant

Boom boom boom, audible from Mariupol centre

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 09:17 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 09:39 PM

This is probably one of the best analysis I have seen on Russia and Putin in the last six months.

http://www.cfr.org/russian-federation/russia-wants-hot-peace-not-war/p33392

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 09:55 PM

Russian troops have now formally broken the cease fire and are attacking Mariupol.

BREAKING: #Russia army has broken ceasefire w/artillery fire in @ least 2 locations: #Mariupol & #StanytsiaLuhanska

BREAKING #Mariupol right now being shelled by #Russian army w GRAD units. 4 units, 60 shells so far. #Ukraine
https://twitter.com/appvar1/status/508353748029038592

Now the separatists formally announce they have broken the cease fire themselves.

Official #Donetsk Republic Twitter account just tweeted: Armed Forces of #Novorossia taking #Mariupol

AmericanPride

09-06-2014, 10:31 PM

This is probably one of the best analysis I have seen on Russia and Putin in the last six months.

http://www.cfr.org/russian-federation/russia-wants-hot-peace-not-war/p33392

So what you're saying is that Russia is a state with identified interests and has assigned strategies and resources to fulfilling those interests... in other words, a rational state. Why are you reversing yourself from your previous position that Russia is an "irrational" state?

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 10:31 PM

Appears that the cease fire did not hold longer than two days---and it seems the separatists were never gong to exchange prisoners as Putin suggested in his "so called peace plan".

So much for trusting anything Putin says and or does.

Fighting at #Donetsk airport. #Ukraine

OUTLAW 09

09-06-2014, 10:42 PM

So what you're saying is that Russia is a state with identified interests and has assigned strategies and resources to fulfilling those interests... in other words, a rational state. Why are you reversing yourself from your previous position that Russia is an "irrational" state?

See the difference between us---just because Russia has a strategy and it is attempting via UW supporting political warfare to reach that end state does by no means indicate that it is both rational and well thought through.

Basically it flies in the face of the repeated claims that the Russian population will through the riches of it's natural resources surpass Europe.

The second thing I am waiting for you to discover and you tend to miss it--just how fascist is really Russia? Currently there are nine Russian "fascist" groups fighting with the separatists. Seems that when Communism disappears fascism raises it's head--some might say communism enhanced the development of fascism in the former SU.

Fascist movements shared certain common features, including the veneration of the state, a devotion to a strong leader, and an emphasis on ultranationalism and militarism. Fascism views political violence, war, and imperialism as a means to achieve national rejuvenation, and it asserts that stronger nations have the right to expand their territory by displacing weaker nations

AP---see the difference between us--I can recognize when Russia is in fact a fascist state but you cannot. Do you not see the not so subtle indicators in Putin's current course--- it matches to a T the above definition?

What is interesting is to watch the European neo ultra nationalists (ie Le Pen) in their support for Russia and--- AP watch what for the results coming out of the European/Russian Ultranationalist Conference that is ongoing in Yalta.

So yes I stand by the statement--Putin is living the dream but that dream is "an altered state of reality" driven by propaganda and fascism cloaked in the concept of ethno nationalist neo imperialism--again close to the definition above do you not think.

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 08:52 AM

See the difference between us---just because Russia has a strategy and it is attempting via UW supporting political warfare to reach that end state does by no means indicate that it is both rational and well thought through.

Basically it flies in the face of the repeated claims that the Russian population will through the riches of it's natural resources surpass Europe.

The second thing I am waiting for you to discover and you tend to miss it--just how fascist is really Russia? Currently there are nine Russian "fascist" groups fighting with the separatists. Seems that when Communism disappears fascism raises it's head--some might say communism enhanced the development of fascism in the former SU.

Fascist movements shared certain common features, including the veneration of the state, a devotion to a strong leader, and an emphasis on ultranationalism and militarism. Fascism views political violence, war, and imperialism as a means to achieve national rejuvenation, and it asserts that stronger nations have the right to expand their territory by displacing weaker nations

AP---see the difference between us--I can recognize when Russia is in fact a fascist state but you cannot. Do you not see the not so subtle indicators in Putin's current course--- it matches to a T the above definition?

What is interesting is to watch the European neo ultra nationalists (ie Le Pen) in their support for Russia and--- AP watch what for the results coming out of the European/Russian Ultranationalist Conference that is ongoing in Yalta.

So yes I stand by the statement--Putin is living the dream but that dream is "an altered state of reality" driven by propaganda and fascism cloaked in the concept of ethno nationalist neo imperialism--again close to the definition above do you not think.

AP---going back to you use of the word "rational"----if Russia was actually acting "rationally" and truly felt that the Ukraine was in "their sphere of influence" as they still hold to the Yalta Agreements---remember the "legal hangup" I pointed out to you.

Then and only then if that is their "rationalization"---they could have taken a totally different although "rational approach".

There are a number of "rational ways" one country an "influence" another in order to ensure a "sphere of influence" and that is practiced daily even by western countries--we call it "globalization" and some on the left use the term "economic warfare" or "economic imperialism";

1. economics---Russia could have "allowed" the EU Association agreement to go forward with the modifications that the EU actually "allowed the Ukraine to build in to counter Russian fears"--actually would have been a smart move "rationally" as it would have allowed for a duty free union interface between the EU and the EEC for Russian products, goods, and services actually ensuring a steady growth of the current ailing Russian economy which was ailing even before the Ukraine.

BUT Russia did not do this---thus from a purely economics view point---"an irrational decision".

2. gas---Russia could have offered to lower their pricing down to what was offered China to emphasize the importance of the Ukraine to Russia and make that a long term multi year contract--and at the same time offer the Ukraine to rebuild the aging transit pipelines--AND stop the development of South Stream and emphasizing the importance of the Ukraine

BUT they did not do that--thus again an "irrational" economic decision.

3. financial aid on long term basis for the development of the Donbas regions which still is the old aging Soviet industrial base from 1991

BUT they did not thus an "irrational" move.

In exchange for super long term gas and financial assistance and a tie in for the EEC to the EU Ukraine could have then offered to place the regionalization, language issues, and local controls on a legal foundation--which I am fairly sure the Ukrainians in exchange would have done--that would have been a no brainer to them.

NOW the question to you---why did Russia opt to take the "irrational" way forward damaging their international standing for years to come in that no country will believe anything they say---and not to mention the damage to their economy over the next ten years---and causing the revival of NATO which by the way was declining if Russia had used the above approach?

WHY--because the Ukraine is just a smoke screen in order to achieve the pipe dream of the ultra nationalists currently sitting in a circle around Putin.

The recreation of the former Soviet Union under the guise of a Russian Empire image.

THAT AP is "irrational" as it entails the complete reordering of European borders as they were settled in the eyes of many Europeans when the Wall came down and many of the former eastern bloc decided for themselves what they wanted--outside of breaking a couple of long term internationally signed treaties.

What Putin does not realize is if he wanted a "war" to prove to the West he was a superpower player of sorts---he could have chosen the path of "economic warfare ie globalization" to prove his points---BUT he did not go that path and again the question to you is----Why not?

Answer--his country is a developing second rate country providing three raw resources (critical but the world can shift around and find new sources) nothing more nothing less and that does not get one into the "globalization" superpower status levels. Russia has spent years trying to get into the G8, the G20 and the WTO--as a national prestige thing and now all for WHAT--the "New Russia"?

AND yet you call this what "rational"?

So again AP--Putin is truly in an "altered state of reality"--ie in an ethno nationalist neo imperialist form of "fascism" which has fallen out of fashion in American PS/IR university courses these days just as the term "nationalism" or "political warfare" is no longer on many teaching agendas.

So maybe Putin will cause a revival in PS/IR courses---and that is "rationally speaking" a really good thing.

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 09:39 AM

AP---stand corrected the Russian ultra nationalist council meetings were in Yalta last week not this week.

From another thread on Russia via kaur which goes to my statements on Russian fascism.

AND believe me---this event was an "actual altered state of reality" as it was being held in the former Soviet Union the Motherland of all Communists supposedly from 1918 until 1995.

From kaur's comment:

FSB guy Strelkov live and visiting sacred places in Russia. He is accompanied by famous Eurasian ideologue Dugin.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1765761.html

Last weekend there was conference in Yalta, Crimea. Conference was organised by Kremlin hardlineres. Main speaker was Putin's adviser in Eurasian Union question Glazjev. It was carried by antifascist banners. Poroshenko led Ukraine was called fascist regime. They had also couple supporters from Europe.

http://nat-ali.livejournal.com/238399.html

Quote:
Roberto Fiore (born 15 April 1959 in Rome) is an Italian politician and a founding member of the European third position (terzo polo) movement which is against both communism and capitalism. He is the leader of the Italian party Forza Nuova. He self-identified as a fascist.[1]

Quote:
Luc Michel (born 1958) is a far-right Belgian political activist and supporter of the ideas of the Nazi-collaborator Jean-Franois Thiriart (having been his personal secretary[1]). He is the current leader and founder of the Parti Communautaire National-Europen as well as a former member of the no-nazi movement Fdration d'action nationaliste et europenne.

Michel is a supporter of National Bolshevism. He is a lawyer by profession, he has also written extensively on his political ideas. He has claimed to have the support of Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, in this endeavour.[2] Previously he had also sought contact with Action directe as part of his moves to link the far left and the left.[1]

What a crazy event!

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 09:48 AM

Some of the Russian military "humanitarian aid" they recently provided to the Russian mercenaries--multiple different photos of this "aid" are online now.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/508403561919946753

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/508403670862819329/photo/1

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 10:04 AM

Surprisingly Foreign Policy is now following Daily Beast in covering events in the Ukraine and this particular massacre by Russian airborne troops has not been fully covered by the West---it "occurred" after Putin "offered them a humanitarian corridor"---go back and recheck Chechen fighting and you will notice the Russian Army did the same thing there after "offering a safe corridor to Chechen fighters".

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/06/anatomy_of_a_bloodbath_ukraine_volunteer_battalion s_ilovaisk_donetsk

NOTE: there has been some rather interesting comments carried by reputable journalists and bloggers that it appeared the attacks yesterday on Mariupol were in fact "to soon" meaning a key element of the Minsk "deal---ie the swapping of prisoners" which is suppose to happen today or tomorrow had not occurred yet.

THEN the Rumint on the street is the Russian Army will fully advance on Odessa and take the remaining portions of "New Russian" fully under their control---early Tuesday morning are the projections.

Will be interesting to see if this particular RUMINT is actually correct---interesting is the sudden announcement by the DNR that the "junta" had violated the ceasefire and they were going on the offensive---the town they named as the place of the "junta" military action was supposedly on the border but it was totally in a different place. THIS occurred exactly one minute after the artillery/GRAD attacks began on Mariupol.

THEN when it was pointed out online that the "Separatists" had announced that it was themselves breaking the ceasefire not the UA then the shellings suddenly stopped--coincidence?

By the way the Russian News Agency RIA started their announcements that the Ukrainians had broken the ceasefire exactly three minutes after the "separatists" made their announcements via Tweeter---coincidence?

The Russians ie Putin truly want the land corridor to Odessa in order to control the entire Black Sea ports, cut the Ukraine off from it sea ports thus truly crippling the Ukrainian economy literally forever, and to ensure the economic development of the Moldavian enclave (then annexation into Russia) and the Crimea.

Eastern Ukraine was just the smoke screen for this move and "New Russia" a side product of the smoke screen.

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 03:34 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 04:27 PM

Russian ultra nationalists--who are basically really national fascists --many fighting in the Donbas with their own groups ---declare Putin to be a puppet of the West.

They dream of an anti liberal czarist regime.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-konflikt-russische-nationalisten-rekrutieren-kaempfer-a-990258.html

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 05:09 PM

To inherently and fully understand the new Russian military doctrine of New Generation Warfare which is really a UW strategy in support to political warfare.

We must learn and have available via translations some of the insights being stated by Russian General Officers concerning this new doctrine and the impact it has had in the Ukraine.

This following link is a translation of a top Russian Generals' views towards and about that new doctrine--a really worthwhile read as it spot on in his assumptions.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukra...

The first two paragraphs of the translation are as the younger generation states "a hammer" and the national command authority better fully understand it and have long term strategy to counter "The New Generation Warfare" as it is now part and parcel of Russian doctrine which has been now fully field tested in the Ukraine.

Taken from the article:
Here is my translation of key portions of General Gerasimov's article, which appeared on "Military-Industrial Kurier" on February 27, 2013

In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template.

The experience of military conflicts -- including those connected with the so-called colored revolutions in north Africa and the Middle East -- confirm that a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 05:29 PM

The current ceasefire is taking on the same dimensions as the first one four months ago.

The "separatists" are shelling Ukrainian positions and then complaining the Ukrainians are violating the ceasefire.

Just today over 11 shelling attacks and still no response by the Ukrainian Army and independent BNs.

Still no prisoner exhanges which was to be done by today---two were released on Friday and then the Russians and the "separatists" both stated the Cease Fire Plan is in effect and working---but again no prisoner exchanges which was a key Ukrainian demand.

A key shelling occurred last night in Mariupol and then this announcement today by the SBU:

BREAKING Ukraine SBU arrests Russian Saboteurs in Mariupol w AK-74s,Grenads,Ammo,encrypted radios

http://bit.ly/ZdF1xC

AmericanPride

09-07-2014, 05:34 PM

See the difference between us---just because Russia has a strategy and it is attempting via UW supporting political warfare to reach that end state does by no means indicate that it is both rational and well thought through.

You have a very strange definition of 'rational' in the context of state decision-making and international relations. You seem to think that if a state does not make a decision you would make from your particular seat, and if a decision made does not produce the idealized goals, then it is somehow irrational. Neither of those are relevant to assessing whether a state is behaving rationally. This is a case of you making stuff up.

AP---see the difference between us--I can recognize when Russia is in fact a fascist state but you cannot.

You are again making stuff up. Where have I disputed the characteristics of the Putin government?

There are a number of "rational ways" one country an "influence" another in order to ensure a "sphere of influence" and that is practiced daily even by western countries--we call it "globalization" and some on the left use the term "economic warfare" or "economic imperialism";

See Point #1. The use of force is still a de facto legitimate means of achieving policy, irrespective of Western norms about its use. That a state can exercise force is irrelevant to whether it should. But this would be a case of you conflating the two, and once again making stuff up - this time about what is 'rational' for the Russian state to do.

In exchange for super long term gas and financial assistance and a tie in for the EEC to the EU Ukraine could have then offered to place the regionalization, language issues, and local controls on a legal foundation--which I am fairly sure the Ukrainians in exchange would have done--that would have been a no brainer to them.

Oh please. The central political contest in Ukraine has been the control of its state organs (and thus wealth) and from an international point of view, the control of the country's debt that finances the whole shaky structure. That is why Yanukovych repeatedly rebuffed the West and the EU - the terms of their loans meant dismantling his political base through privatization; that's hardly a rational choice. Once the Maiden revolution untethered the political process from its legal basis and installed an openly anti-Russian government, it was only a matter of time before Russia escalated its agitation. The Russians did not have a grand scheme for dismantling Ukraine - it's been an ad hoc response to developing conditions on the ground. First - the seizure of Crimea, and then the agitation in Donbas. If the Russians had planned annexation from the beginning, the seizure of half of Ukraine through armed conflict in the opening days of the crisis would have settled this issue for Russia months ago.

NOW the question to you---why did Russia opt to take the "irrational" way forward damaging their international standing for years to come in that no country will believe anything they say---and not to mention the damage to their economy over the next ten years---and causing the revival of NATO which by the way was declining if Russia had used the above approach?

Because "international standing" and "trust" are less important than power. You know, that Roman adage of "Let them hate, so long as they fear." Politics hasn't changed in thousands of years.

What Putin does not realize is if he wanted a "war" to prove to the West he was a superpower player of sorts---he could have chosen the path of "economic warfare ie globalization" to prove his points---BUT he did not go that path and again the question to you is----Why not?

Why do you think you in the West is his primary audience?

In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template.

Russian military thought is about 20 years behind - and yet they still caught Washington by surprise. Yet your article still misses the part where it describes the leadership as "irrational"; seems like they're pretty well thought out and the West simply dropped the ball in understanding its adversaries. Probably because many are convinced, like you, that if a state does not behave in the way anticipated, it's "irrational" and therefore cannot be understood. That's a common problem for the West. :rolleyes:

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 07:21 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 08:15 PM

For those that believe that there are only a few thousand Russian soldiers ie contractors/vacationers here is a not finalized list of the Russian military units and their Russian bases that has been collected by journalists.

Now begs the question "incursion or in fact an actual invasion"?

Ukrainians Fight Against 20 Russian Army Brigades and Regiments

Posted on September 7, 2014 by chervonaruta

By FreeJournal
08.28.2014
Translated by Stepan Nikitchuk and edited by Voices of Ukraine

About 20 brigades and regiments of the Russian army are being thrown against Ukraine in Donbas. So writes the journalist network site: The Forgotten Regiment (zpolk.org):

“The most difficult thing for the relatives of the dead is to find and bring home [the dead] to bury their bodies. Nobody usually knows where the military unit that their son, husband, or brother serves in can be redeployed.”

Therefore, we publish this information about which troops have been moved into areas of active combat in Ukraine. We hope that this will become a reference point for family members who are worried about the fate of their relatives serving in the military.

This information, for obvious reasons, cannot be absolutely 100% accurate. But it is confirmed by fragmentary statements coming from the [Russian Federation] Ministry of Defense and journalist publications.

From the South Military District, Ground Forces and Artillery:

- Combat-Tactical Group (CTG) from the 18th Motorized Brigade based in Hankala/Kalynovska, Chechnya (the so-called Chechen battalion)

- CTG from the 17th Motorized Brigade – Shali, Chechnya

- CTG from the 136th Motorized Brigade – Botlikh, Dagestan

- CTG from the 205th Motorized Brigade – Budenovsk, Stavropol Region

- CTG from the 19th Motorized Rifle Brigade – Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia

- CTG from the 7th Military Base from the occupied Abkhazia, Georgia

- CTG from the 33rd Mountain Infantry Brigade – Maikop, Adygea

- Combined Division from the 291st Artillery Brigade – Troitskaya, Ingushetia

- Combined Company from the 78th Logistics Brigade – Budenovsk, Stavropol Region.

From the Airborne Troops:

- CTG from the 76th Division – Pskov

- CTG from the 98th Division – Ivanovo

- CTG from the 45th Separate Special-Purpose Regiment – Kubinka

- CTG from the 247th Regiment of the 7th Division – Novorossiysk.

CTG/RTG and divisions of the Ground Forces and Artillery units of the South Military District

- from the 20th Motorized Brigade – Volgograd

- 34th Mountain Infantry Brigade – Karachay-Cherkessia

- Division from the 943rd Artillery Regiment – Krasnooktyabrskoe, Adygea (MLRS “Hurricane”)

- Division from the 1st Missile Brigade – Krasnodar (PTRC “Tochka-U”, “Iskander-M”)

- 23rd Motorized Rifle Brigade – Samara

BTG / RTG from Airborne

- from the 56th Air Assault Brigade – Volgograd

- 106th Division – Tula

RTG / DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups)

- From the parts of the GRU stationed in the South of Russia

- the 10th Special-Purpose Brigade – Molkino, Krasnodar Region

- 22nd Special-Purpose Brigade – Aksai, Rostov Region

- 100th Experimental Reconnaissance Brigade – Mozdok, North Ossetia

- 346th Special-Purpose Brigade – Prokhladnyi, Kabardino-Balkaria

- 25th Special-Purpose Regiment – Stavropol

- 2nd Special-Purpose Brigade – Pskov

- 16th Special-Purpose Brigade – Tambov

- 3rd Special-Purpose Brigade – Ulyanovsk.

Source: freejournal.biz

OUTLAW 09

09-07-2014, 08:30 PM

Great BBC article on the foreign fighters on both sides in the Ukraine:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28951324

AmericanPride

09-07-2014, 09:38 PM

AP---if you still think Putin is not in an "altered state of reality" then seriously read this article from FP which is why I have been saying Putin and company are acting irrationally--they have come to the conclusion they can indeed survive a first strike tactical nuclear usage against Poland or the Baltics.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/04/putins_nuclear_option_russia_weapons

Sounds like the same debate American strategists had in the middle of the Cold War when debating "limited" nuclear conflicts. Given that no one has actually fought a nuclear war yet, it is only speculation about how it would escalate and de-escalate, and how much control the authorities could really exercise under such conditions. Some argue that any such speculation is foolish - so maybe you're right, but again, you would be proving too much since you are also discrediting U.S. nuclear strategy. As I do recall as recently as the Bush II administration discussions among U.S. officials about non-strategic uses of nuclear weapons as well U.S. consideration of using nuclear weapons against non-state actors armed with WMD. Maybe the conclusion after all is that any consideration of strategy beyond the first nuclear strike is "irrational". But that wouldn't fit well with your agenda, would it?

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 06:47 AM

Sounds like the same debate American strategists had in the middle of the Cold War when debating "limited" nuclear conflicts. Given that no one has actually fought a nuclear war yet, it is only speculation about how it would escalate and de-escalate, and how much control the authorities could really exercise under such conditions. Some argue that any such speculation is foolish - so maybe you're right, but again, you would be proving too much since you are also discrediting U.S. nuclear strategy. As I do recall as recently as the Bush II administration discussions among U.S. officials about non-strategic uses of nuclear weapons as well U.S. consideration of using nuclear weapons against non-state actors armed with WMD. Maybe the conclusion after all is that any consideration of strategy beyond the first nuclear strike is "irrational". But that wouldn't fit well with your agenda, would it?

AP---see the differences again---but somehow you do not see them.

Has it be US policy to openly threaten neighbors and other superpowers with a nuclear strike--- has it be the policy of say this WH to order the military to hold tactical nuclear strike exercises clearly on say a series of specific countries?--has it be released in US military doctrine the use of first tactical nuclear first strike--updated say since 2012?

Even with our crazy Congress politics not many of those members have in open media declared that the US should use first strike on anyone other than maybe now IS.

Come on AP--you have got to get better at this.

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 06:50 AM

One of the main Russian and their mercenaries arguments has been they capture Ukrainian military equipment thus their new found abundance of heavy tactical equipment.

Here is a T72 series only used by Russia and was never exported to anyone that has been repainted to "look" like an Ukrainian tank that was captured by the mercenaries.

Another lie busted! #Russia paints its own supplied tanks in Ukr. IFF to let them look like "captured"

pic.twitter.com/OXqrtevq1c

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/508490991049797632/photo/1

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 09:54 AM

AP---see the differences again---but somehow you do not see them.

Has it be US policy to openly threaten neighbors and other superpowers with a nuclear strike--- has it be the policy of say this WH to order the military to hold tactical nuclear strike exercises clearly on say a series of specific countries?--has it be released in US military doctrine the use of first tactical nuclear first strike--updated say since 2012?

Even with our crazy Congress politics not many of those members have in open media declared that the US should use first strike on anyone other than maybe now IS.

Come on AP--you have got to get better at this.

AP---I posted a link to an article from Foreign Policy concerning the use of Orwell's' 1984 to truly understand Putin---it does in fact support my constant comment "altered state of reality". Based on your comments you apparently did not take the time to read and or reread it.

There are three things in that book that fit perfectly when analyzing Putin's mindset;

1. Orwells' use of the mythical country called "Eurasia"---much as Putin uses it
2. Orwell uses a term called "doublethink" which I call "altered state of reality" and which is being used by Putin and the Russian far right daily
3. a definition of what Power is

Doublethink allows a person to state two completely different and many times contradicting statements at the same time---AND this is key "fully believe both statements to be true".

One see's this daily with the Russian propaganda war that is massive right now-and which the SOCEUR has called a "blitz krieg".
That is why I have mentioned to you-- I do believe Putin is in fact believing his own propaganda which often happens when leaders feel they are on a roll and accept no criticism even from one's own advisors.

Remember I have tried to get you to understand that if one really listens to and reads the words of Putin since his Duma speech which I also know you did not read--you will see this "doublethink" in action.

SECONDLY, that is a line in the book where the main character is torturing a victim and he says "Power is not the means BUT the end state" or "goal".

AP--really give that statement some thought---is that not a perfect description of the current Russia "adventurism"?

1. reestablishing Russia as a world power ie superpower
2. the power to destroy the EU
3. the power to declass the US and to decouple it from Europe
4. the power associated with establishing the hegemony of Russia over Europe--we see that is the outright kidnapping on
Estonia soil of an Estonian State Security officer
5. power in destroying western liberal ideas of women's rights, homosexual rights, EU style economics, and the list goes on

NOW go back to 2008 starting with Georgia and reread every single statement made by Putin---POWER is in fact his stated end goal nothing more nothing less.

This is why I often allude to force as the single form of deterrent right now---POWER is what he understands and the West is afraid of using it.

Seriously do yourself a favor and read 1984---and that recommendation came not from me but a really good Yale Professor who wrote the article.

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 10:07 AM

AP--here is the Orwell "doublethink" in action again;
example:

1. There are no Russian troops and or heavy weapons in the Ukraine
2. I have no intentions in splitting up the Ukriane
3. All that modern Russian military equipment that only exisits in Russia is in fact being driven by the "New Russia" military not my troops

BUt then this "doublethink"--last night's attacks on towns around Maruipol which speaks another line of thought from that above.

Under the guise of a "ceasefire" Russian troops which were not part of the "ceasefire" are continuing to surround Mariupol.

#BREAKING Russian troops use the ceasefire to surround #Mariupol.Night attacks on Novoazovsk, Sartanan and Kominternovo

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/508877950776012800

And there is no "altered state of reality" coming out of Russia?

Come on AP "see and understand".

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 10:49 AM

Heads up---much more is now coming out on MH17 shot down---First this from BBC today:

BBC investigation: “@BBCr4today: Eyewitness near #MH17 crash told @JohnSweeneyRoar saw BUK missile launcher & crew spoke w/Moscow accents”

NEXT--this is more important--there will be a solid article released on the MH17 shot down by the known open source analyst bellingcat---the last time he released something critical he got hit with a DDoS by both the jihadi's and the FSB.

https://bellingcat.com/

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 10:56 AM

Russian winter 2013 conscripts displaying the money they got from Russian "contracts" to fight in the Ukraine.

This is actually why when Putin and his FM state there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine---they are actually correct--but no one in the main stream media asks the follow up question---and what about Russian "contract" fighters?

What is interesting is that those Russian military killed up to now were professional longer term types--now they are shifting to "conscript contractors"--which means the fighting quality will drop off--wonder why---some say due to heavier than planned fort losses by the professionals side.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/508894770429984768

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 11:09 AM

Again AP--I am not the only one using the term "irrational" and Putin in the same sentence--but I like my term better "altered state of reality" as it fits "doublethink" far better than say "irrational".

Ukraine conflict could spill into Romania if Russia takes "irrational actions"

http://euobserver.com/foreign/125504 pic.twitter.com/4XkSkrtTyb

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 01:05 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 01:20 PM

If one did not suspect Russia was acting "irrational" here is another example of Russia being "irrational" and using "irrationality" as a political pressure point against a Baltic country.

Russia has reopened 25-year-old cases that may lead to criminal charges against young people who refused to serve in the Soviet army in 1990-1991, shows a request for legal assistance received by the Lithuanian Prosecutor General's Office.

This still affects approximately 1500 Lithuanians who fled and or hid from the Soviet Army when Lithuanian went independent. Lithuanian authorities have refused to cooperative as desertion from the SU Army is not a crime there.

http://en.delfi.lt/lithuania/foreign-affairs/russia-reopens-criminal-cases-against-lithuanians-who-refused-to-serve-in-soviet-army.d?id=65776132#dreload1410174770219

This is like claiming in 2014 that the ancestors of Texans who did not join the Mexican Army during the uprising are now going to be charged and hauled into Mexican court.

Amazed--this perfect example really does go to the heart of "altered state of reality" to think Soviet law applied in 1990/91 still applies today when in theory the Soviet Union does not exist---well in some heads it still does exist.

But then some commenters here assumed that we must thoroughly understand why Russia is angry--actually we need to understand just where it went off the cliff and this "altered reality" set in.
a

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 03:39 PM

Open source is far more effective than CIA/DIA/NSA especially if it can search and filter the entire internet much as does the NSA with their photo/video search engines.

Goes to confirm that 80% of all intelligence actually comes from open sources so why does it not get the same massive budgets as the technical side seems to always get?

Today from bellingcat.com an open source UK site they have potentially identified both the Buk itself as equipment from a particular AD unit, but as well from what unit it was assigned to. It is interesting to see his work since the Ukrainian SBU stated shortly after the shot down they knew it was a Russian crew and had the voice intercepts to back it up but it went nowhere in the western mass media.

Should be interesting to see how Russia takes the news--but wait as always---"it ain't me".

By now the FSB must be aware just how badly their internet opsec has been.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/09/08/images-show-the-buk-that-downed-flight-mh17-inside-russia-controlled-by-russian-troops/

AmericanPride

09-08-2014, 04:10 PM

Outlaw,

You are hilarous. I count 10 posts in a row from you - spambots would have a hard time keeping up.

Has it be US policy to openly threaten neighbors and other superpowers with a nuclear strike

Yes - at various points in its history, the U.S. has issued explicit nuclear threats to the Soviet Union, People's Republic of China, North Korea, Iraq, and Iran. The U.S. also issued nuclear threats against non-state actors and for cyber attacks - I do not recall if Russia has done the same. Again - my point is that your line of argument proves too much.

Orwells' use of the mythical country called "Eurasia"---much as Putin uses it

Oh "come on" outlaw. Orwell refered to a mythical country. Putin is using a well-established term for the combined European and Asian continents. Please stop confusing definitions and concepts. Russia has never viewed itself as fully European or fully Asian - it's always been a unique mix of both.

Doublethink allows a person to state two completely different and many times contradicting statements at the same time---AND this is key "fully believe both statements to be true".

For Putin's statements to qualify as "doublethink" he would have to genuinely believe that Russian troops are not in Ukraine. Are you seriously going to make that argument? :rolleyes:

SECONDLY, that is a line in the book where the main character is torturing a victim and he says "Power is not the means BUT the end state" or "goal".

That's the basis for realpolitik and realism in international relations. Why is that such a shock to you?

1. reestablishing Russia as a world power ie superpower
2. the power to destroy the EU
3. the power to declass the US and to decouple it from Europe
4. the power associated with establishing the hegemony of Russia over Europe--we see that is the outright kidnapping on
Estonia soil of an Estonian State Security officer
5. power in destroying western liberal ideas of women's rights, homosexual rights, EU style economics, and the list goes on

That's the general concensus by most analysts of Russia, and something I have stated (repeatedly) in previous posts. That doesn't make Russia "irrationa" - it actually makes Russia fairly predictable.

AP--another example of "irrational" nuclear threats that the last time I checked neither NATO nor say the US AF has practiced cruise missile nuclear strikes against any Russia borders.

If there are motives, means, and opportunity - it is fundamentally not irrational. Just because you personally disagree with Russia's conduct does not mean Russia is behaving irrationally. Just because Russia may be acting aggressively, immorally, and duplicitly, it does not mean it is behaving irrationally. Your constant refrain of an "irrational" Russia contradicts your other constant refrain that Russia is deliberately the pursing the annexation of Ukraine and other east European states - which means you are the one practicing "doublethink". Come on!

OUTLAW 09

09-08-2014, 05:01 PM

Outlaw,

You are hilarous. I count 10 posts in a row from you - spambots would have a hard time keeping up.

Yes - at various points in its history, the U.S. has issued explicit nuclear threats to the Soviet Union, People's Republic of China, North Korea, Iraq, and Iran. The U.S. also issued nuclear threats against non-state actors and for cyber attacks - I do not recall if Russia has done the same. Again - my point is that your line of argument proves too much.

Oh "come on" outlaw. Orwell refered to a mythical country. Putin is using a well-established term for the combined European and Asian continents. Please stop confusing definitions and concepts. Russia has never viewed itself as fully European or fully Asian - it's always been a unique mix of both.

For Putin's statements to qualify as "doublethink" he would have to genuinely believe that Russian troops are not in Ukraine. Are you seriously going to make that argument? :rolleyes:

That's the basis for realpolitik and realism in international relations. Why is that such a shock to you?

That's the general concensus by most analysts of Russia, and something I have stated (repeatedly) in previous posts. That doesn't make Russia "irrationa" - it actually makes Russia fairly predictable.

If there are motives, means, and opportunity - it is fundamentally not irrational. Just because you personally disagree with Russia's conduct does not mean Russia is behaving irrationally. Just because Russia may be acting aggressively, immorally, and duplicitly, it does not mean it is behaving irrationally. Your constant refrain of an "irrational" Russia contradicts your other constant refrain that Russia is deliberately the pursing the annexation of Ukraine and other east European states - which means you are the one practicing "doublethink". Come on!

So AP--then it seems you have not read a statement about two years ago when there was talk of the EU and the Customs Union working together where Putin alluded to a economic union he wanted that stretched from Portugal to the Russian Far East with Russia being considered by Putin to be the lead horse of the whole thing---seems that the EU waved off on him and his idea.

But then you never read anything anyway.

Come on AP---you read absolutely nothing that one should be reading--you absolutely have never read most of what Putin has stated to include his Duma speech so how can I take you seriously--at least show us that you have read Putin's Duma speech at a minimum.

Reference 1984--it seems you cannot even read the linked article of the Yale Professor who actually wrote the article and yet you make comments about me but fail to make critical comments if you have any concerning the actual article---critique, critique, critique, and that is about it--do you even have a serious thought about anything Putin says and or is currently doing?

In the end---you simply drop in make a few comments that sound intelligent but contribute nothing--no wonder JMA had his doubts and voiced them about you.

In the end---we can go back and count the number of times what I have stated has in fact occurred almost to the letter--then let's see what you stated would occur and if it did occur.

And all that you wanted and suggested at the very beginning of your inputs was to do what AP----negotiate?---what has that gotten you?

Sit back and watch the slow but steady move to take Odessa---then come back and talk "altered state of reality".

Why --the Black Sea has been beefed up by four large Russian landing ships and the Russian land force nearly doubled armor/artillery/AD wise on that portion of the Crimea border opposite Mariupol, and the Russian "peacekeepers" in the Moldavian enclave has been tripled in the last two weeks.

By the way I am still awaiting an answer from you concerning Russian fascism--or at least a response that indicates you at least understand what has developed inside Russia since 2001.

So AP--just keep repeating the mantra "negotiation, negotiation"-----

AmericanPride

09-08-2014, 05:14 PM

So AP--you had not read a statement about two years ago when there was talk of the EU and the Customs Union working together where Putin alluded to a economic union he wanted that stretched from Portugal to the Russian Far East.

How does that translate into Orwell's mythical political construct?

But then you never read anyway.

You have no idea what I read - so again, this would be a case of you making stuff up.

In the end---we can go back and count the number of times what I have stated has in fact occurred almost to the letter.

Please do. You can start with your prediction about the effects of downing the Malaysian airliner.

And all that you wanted and suggested at the very beginning of your inputs was to do what AP----negotiate?---what has that gotten you?

It would have saved eastern Ukraine from billions of dollars worth of destruction and thousands of lives. But maybe that's not important to you. There were opportunities to negotiate in November 2013, February 2014, March 2014, May 2014, and now there is another opportunity. The conditions for a negotiated settlement for Ukraine are worst now than they were in February and March - and that's a direct result of rushing into conflict The point of war isn't to keep fighting it perpetually but to bring the other side ultimately to the negotiating table on terms favorable to you. . That you fail to recognize this basic premise in warfighting highlights a great gap in your strategic understanding.

By the way I am still awaiting an answer from you concerning Russian fascism--or at least a response that indicates you at least understand what has developed inside Russia since 2001.

I've already discussed at length my views on the Russian regime and its drivers. Your failure to read it is not my responsibility.

So AP--just keep repeating the mantra "negotiation, negotiation"-----

Yes - I will. Conflict is a means, not an end - and so is negotiation.

Bill Moore

09-09-2014, 01:14 AM

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-hardens-military-thinking-as-nato-fizzes-over-ukraine/506570.html

Russia Hardens Military Thinking as NATO Fizzes Over Ukraine

Voices swiftly surfaced advocating a hard line. Retired General Yury Yakubov, who serves as an advisor at the Russian Defense Ministry, said last week the doctrine should list NATO not only as the primary threat to Russia, but detail the scenarios in which preemptive nuclear strikes against the alliance would be on the table.

This would far exceed the 2010 doctrine, which sees NATO expansion as a threat to Russian national security without identifying the alliance as a primary adversary and reaffirms Russia's right only to defensive use of nuclear weapons.

To back up the point, Nichols quoted former U.S. Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger: "Nuclear doctrines control the minds of men only in periods of non-emergency. In the moment of truth, when the possibility of major devastation occurs, one is likely to discover sudden changes in doctrine."

OUTLAW 09

09-09-2014, 06:20 AM

How does that translate into Orwell's mythical political construct?

You have no idea what I read - so again, this would be a case of you making stuff up.

Please do. You can start with your prediction about the effects of downing the Malaysian airliner.

It would have saved eastern Ukraine from billions of dollars worth of destruction and thousands of lives. But maybe that's not important to you. There were opportunities to negotiate in November 2013, February 2014, March 2014, May 2014, and now there is another opportunity. The conditions for a negotiated settlement for Ukraine are worst now than they were in February and March - and that's a direct result of rushing into conflict The point of war isn't to keep fighting it perpetually but to bring the other side ultimately to the negotiating table on terms favorable to you. . That you fail to recognize this basic premise in warfighting highlights a great gap in your strategic understanding.

I've already discussed at length my views on the Russian regime and its drivers. Your failure to read it is not my responsibility.

Yes - I will. Conflict is a means, not an end - and so is negotiation.

AP--you still do not get it--check Bill M's comment about the nuclear card Russia is and has been playing since 2012 and we did not want to see it coming.

You yourself just flipped something on it's head but then that has been your problem in the entire thread.

This sentence of yours is key and it reflects something you derided in your 1984 comments that applies massively to Putin.

Your sentence :
Yes - I will. Conflict is a means, not an end - and so is negotiation.

1984 sentence as interpreted by the author a Yale Professor:

Power is not the means but the end state and or goal.

AP---see the difference in the approaches in two simple sentences?

If you want to hang onto your thinking then your sentence should have read:

Negotiations are not the means but in fact the end state---then you can see just how a heavily leveled sanctions regime I have been writing about achieves the blocking of Power as the end state or goal.

Your ideas of the West's actions since 1994 being the problem do not reflect Putin's drivers which are a ethno nationalistic neo imperialism tied to dreams of Empire plain and simple---some would in fact call it a fascist revival.

Reference nuclear threat that is now part and parcel of Putin's aims at the West and is a stated strategy to achieve those aims:

Again take the time to read the link and mull it over in the face of everything Russia/Putin and his FM have stated in the last six months.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/08/its_time_to_stop_putins_nuclear_arms_buildup_inf_t reaty

OUTLAW 09

09-09-2014, 11:10 AM

AP--using the essence of really what you have been writing here about as your core beliefs:

I will. Conflict is a means, not an end - and so is negotiation.

Notice--negotiations settled these ongoing events right?

Rodnykova, Dokuchaievsk, Tonen'ke, Debaltseve and Donetsk airport came under attack last night. Several times w/#Grad missiles and #mortars.

2 convoys spotted from Rostov towards #Mariupol, incl. 172 tracked vehicles, 30 APCs, 200 trucks - #NSC

Notice: Russian forces increase their daily - and nightly - attacks on Ukrainian positions bit by bit since the start of the 'ceasefire'.

Dutch report completely contradicts earlier claims on Russian State TV that #MH17 was ordered to lower altitude.

By the way a recent massive attack by the Russian FM on the Ukraine for not releasing their ATC tapes seems to have disappeared into thin air as the Dutch did in fact analyze their ATC tapes which Russian claimed would prove their crazy SU25 theory about the Ukraine shooting don MH17.

Explain to us here starting with the Crimea just before the "little green men appeared to the downing of MH17 to a "ceasefire" that has seen both the mercenaries and the Russian Army increase their shellings on Ukrainian positions even though there is a supposedly "ceasefire"---How would negotiations have solved any of the above especially in light of the initial luke warm sanctions that did nothing to stop the above of or to get Putin's attention.

There have been negotiations ongoing over the Moldavian and Georgian annexed enclaves since 2008 and what has been achieved--really what has been achieved especially in light of the fact that Russia has increased the number of "allowed peacekeepers" two fold over in the last three weeks?

See your own disconnected argument--you are stating one thing and oblivious at the same time that reality on the ground and in actions taken daily by Putin in fact negate any and all negotiations.

Example---taken from a number of western media sources;

See Putin contributed to the ceasefire plan and is using his influence on the mercenaries--really?

The last time I checked Russia did not sign the ceasefire and guess what Russian troops and heavy equipment are still flowing into the Ukraine and oh---that nightly shelling and now daytime shellings by Russian troops and mercenaries is what an accident?

The ceasefire plan by Putin was nothing more than a smoke screen to try to get the EU sanctions taken off the table.

And see the threats coming out of Russia---if more sanctions then no overflights--guess what there were no overflights during the Cold War and Aeroflot risks being cut off from all overflights and will lose 400M USD on overflight fees from western airlines--now does that look like a "sanction" to you?

Just like the food ban sanctions against the EU---banned food is flowing still into Russia just with Belarus food names--and the Finns are offering free bus trips to St. Petersburg residents to shop in Finland--and that is what a "sanction"--come on AP

In sanctioning the West Russia is effectively sanctioning itself--does that make sense to anyone other than say Putin?

Come on AP---see and understand.

kaur

09-09-2014, 11:55 AM

2 pics how Russia perceives it's geopolitical situation. First one is by Stratfor (I think), second is from Russian military journal.

AmericanPride

09-09-2014, 02:32 PM

Your ideas of the West's actions since 1994 being the problem do not reflect Putin's drivers which are a ethno nationalistic neo imperialism tied to dreams of Empire plain and simple---some would in fact call it a fascist revival.

Where did I say that the "West's actions since 1994" are the problem? You're making stuff up again. What I did say several times is that Russia perceives the expansion of NATO and the U.S. missile defense program as threats to its security. That's not relevant to whether or not Putin's government is "ethno nationalistic neo-imperialist". BTW - again you are playing fast and loose with definitions (another feature of making stuff up). The term 'neo-imperialist' names the period of renewed colonialism by Western Europeans so what exactly are you trying to say about Russia?

Notice--negotiations settled these ongoing events right?

Has war? The majority of conflicts end with a negotiated settlement, and this one will too. What you have not recognized is that as time progresses, the political position of Ukraine vis-a-vis Russia becomes worse. So - the longer they pursue the conflict, the higher the cost will be for Ukraine to actually terminate it. How many billions of dollars are they going to borrow to rebuild the east, how much is going to be spent on re-armament and veteran care after the war? Not to mention the difficult process of reincorporating the east into the normal political process. These are all costs of the conflict blithely and typically ignored. But hey - as long as those evil, irrational Russians don't get anything they want, right? Destroy the country to save it. :rolleyes:

In sanctioning the West Russia is effectively sanctioning itself--does that make sense to anyone other than say Putin?

Yes - it does, given that as you claim the interest is in power, not profit or principles.

OUTLAW 09

09-09-2014, 03:08 PM

Where did I say that the "West's actions since 1994" are the problem? You're making stuff up again. What I did say several times is that Russia perceives the expansion of NATO and the U.S. missile defense program as threats to its security. That's not relevant to whether or not Putin's government is "ethno nationalistic neo-imperialist". BTW - again you are playing fast and loose with definitions (another feature of making stuff up). The term 'neo-imperialist' names the period of renewed colonialism by Western Europeans so what exactly are you trying to say about Russia?

Has war? The majority of conflicts end with a negotiated settlement, and this one will too. What you have not recognized is that as time progresses, the political position of Ukraine vis-a-vis Russia becomes worse. So - the longer they pursue the conflict, the higher the cost will be for Ukraine to actually terminate it. How many billions of dollars are they going to borrow to rebuild the east, how much is going to be spent on re-armament and veteran care after the war? Not to mention the difficult process of reincorporating the east into the normal political process. These are all costs of the conflict blithely and typically ignored. But hey - as long as those evil, irrational Russians don't get anything they want, right? Destroy the country to save it. :rolleyes:

Yes - it does, given that as you claim the interest is in power, not profit or principles.

AP---you really think Putin is interested in profits and or principles-you really must learn Russian--come on AP

AP---here you go again--the end of all events is a negotiation---pray tell then what is the negotiated results for the Crimea and the annexation of southeastern Ukraine or the New Russia. Hope you are not using the negotiated examples of the Moldavian and Georgian enclaves as best case examples are you?

Just how long do you envision the negotiations taking to return the Crimea and or "New Russia"--certainly not in yours or you children's life times.

AP you do realize that the positions Putin has taken foreclose any ability to negotiate over the Crimea and now the "New Russia"---you and others were all about face saving, understanding the apparent Russia "needs" or the Russians have a valid series of complaints against the West---right that was your line of reasoning --not once did you stop to think that neo imperialism demands a far different sets of approaches especially when one side fully believes it's own propaganda or as they say in 1984--"doublethink".

But again you dismissed a series of thoughts that 1984 in fact brings to light within fascism and in neo imperialism---POWER is in fact the goal not negotiations as that is perceived as being "weak". You really do need a course in imperialism/fascism.

AP---you have realized that every move Putin is making since actually starting in 2001 is all about reestablishing POWER both his and Russia--right you do see this?

You did realize that the Russia school book manufacturers were already given ten months ago orders to include two chapters on the historical background of "New Russia"---ever wonder why and ever notice the timing of that order?

You do realize that the "New Russia" solution cuts the Ukraine completely off from the Black Sea making it a land locked country right with it's industrial center cut off as well--right AP?

Then as you state the end result is always a negotiated settlement---well then in this particular case of the Ukraine what have we learned/seen/experienced in the current Russian military/political doctrine about their new neo imperialism.

1. let's see---the first time since 1945 via violence borders of a European country have been changed
2. the breaking of at least four internationally by Russia signed treaties and the violation of two other key treaties
3. the use of Russian military outside of their existing borders--now the fourth time since 2008 if I recall
4. the expansion of a totally new nuclear doctrine to include stated first time strike as an option---AP notice the Russians do not state we will negotiate before we fire nuclear weapons---they envision going straight to nuclear weapons
5. the demand that the EU change their regulations to fit the EEC or basically Russian demanded changes
6. the use of a monopolistic gas position to demand and force other countries to change their policies to conform to Russian standards.

AP you do fully understand that Putin is at war against western liberal values, the EU regulations, the splitting of the Us from the EU and the destruction of NATO---right?

But most of all he fears the Maidan movement reaching Moscow. Some here call it the fear of a population defining it's own rule of law and good governance.

So does that strike you as an individual really interested in negotiations at this moment in time?

So again AP just what are your negotiations to achieve in the face of the above.

OUTLAW 09

09-09-2014, 03:42 PM

AP--in an effort to boost your knowledge of Russian Federation neo Nazi's/ultra nationalists/open fascists who are presently at 13 groups and counting--all of which function openly inside Russia--some even supported openly by the Russian Orthodox church--seven of them have fighting units inside the Ukraine.

Notice how they slide that word "patriotic" into the name---also a feature found in 1984. Yet you dismiss it.

Far-right national-patriotic international gathering in St Petersburg, #Russia, early October

http://buff.ly/1waxhKl

pic.twitter.com/kTbot2qujk

AmericanPride

09-09-2014, 03:57 PM

AP---you really think Putin is interested in profits and or principles-you really must learn Russian--come on AP

'Come on' Outlaw, where did I say that? Stop making stuff up.

AP---here you go again--the end of all events is a negotiation---

Again - stop making stuff up. I did not say that the "end of all events is a negotiation". In fact - I said the opposite: negotiations are a means, not an end. For you, maybe your thinking stops when the war stops - but that would be pretty shallow.

---pray tell then what is the negotiated results for the Crimea and the annexation of southeastern Ukraine or the New Russia.

That's for the Ukrainians and Russians to decide - and there have been a number of proposals floated by a wide range of politicians, officials, analysts, and academics. At the risk of you once again misquoting me and inventing meaning where none exist, the proposals range from the complete and immediate unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces to Ukraine to the de jure independence of whole region. The final settlement will be somewhere in between.

Just how long do you envision the negotiations taking to return the Crimea and or "New Russia"--certainly not in yours or you children's life times.

Probably not - and that's the consequences of forgoing a negotiated settlement to resolve Ukraine's internal political problem before Russian intervention and the Donbass revolt. Remember that short-lived Februrary agreement facilitated by the EU to resolve the conflict between Maiden opposition and the Yanukovych government by mandating new electons? That was the second missed opportunity for a political solution.

AP you do realize that the positions Putin has taken foreclose any ability to negotiate over the Crimea and now the "New Russia"---

That's been one of my points since the beginning - and no amount of sanctions will reverse that. No U.S. soldier is going to die for Crimea's return to Ukraine so discussing how the U.S. will use a military solution is also pointless. Now that Russia's position vis-a-vis Ukraine continues to improve over-time, at some point it will be preferable for Ukraine to negotiate than to continue the conflict. That's the unfortunate result of short-sighted policies that quickly dismiss the opposition as "irrational".

-you and others were all about face saving, understanding the apparent Russia "needs" or the Russians have a valid series of complaints against the West

It's less about face saving and more about minimizing one's losses in an obviously losing situation. What has the U.S. or Ukraine gained since the start of military activities? Is the political situation relative to Russia worse or better now than in Februrary?

not once did you stop to think that neo imperialism demands a far different sets of approaches especially when one side fully believes it's own propaganda or as they say in 1984--"doublethink".

Again - you are inventing your own definitions to establish terms. Russia is not "neo-imperialist". Nor is Putin practicing "double think".

POWER is in fact the goal not negotiations as that is perceived as being "weak". You really do need a course in imperialism/fascism.

Again - you are making stuff up. I have always said power is the goal.

AP---you have realized that every move Putin is making since actually starting in 2001 is all about reestablishing POWER both his and Russia--right you do see this?

If you have actually bothered to read any of my comments instead of inventing your own meaning to what I am saying, you will see that I have been saying this for months now. Thank you for agreeing. Now that the goal is established (power), and that we also know the means and opportunities, explain to me again how Russia is "irrational".

You do realize that the "New Russia" solution cuts the Ukraine completely off from the Black Sea making it a land locked country right with it's industrial center cut off as well--right AP?

Sounds like the behavior of a rational state pursuing its material interests to me.

new neo imperialism.

'Neo' already means new.

AP you do fully understand that Putin is at war against western liberal values, the EU regulations, the splitting of the Us from the EU and the destruction of NATO---right?

Evidently you have ignored all of my previous posts stating this repeatedly.

let's see---the first time since 1945 via violence borders of a European country have been changed

Really? Did you just erase Yugoslavia from the history books? And the Turkish invasion of Cyprus?

the use of Russian military outside of their existing borders--now the fourth time since 2008 if I recall

This is the fifth external conflict for Russia since 1991 - sixth if you count Crimea and Donbass separately. By the way - the first four conflicts ended with a negotiated settlement.

the expansion of a totally new nuclear doctrine to include stated first time strike as an option---AP notice the Russians do not state we will negotiate before we fire nuclear weapons---they envision going straight to nuclear weapons

How is that relevant to a negotiated settlement for the current Ukraine conflict?

So again AP just what are your negotiations to achieve in the face of the above.

What's the end-state of open-ended perpetual conflict?

OUTLAW 09

09-09-2014, 03:57 PM

AP---so after all these reports coming in about massive amounts of tanks and artillery and more troops flowing in---just what do you propose the West should negotiate about that they have not all ready indicated?

You do admit the Minsk ceasefire meetings were "negotiations"--right?--if so then why was Russia not a signatory of the ceasefire--since they are the largest weapons suppliers and providers of fighters on "vacation"?

Russian 101 on "negotiations" never place a signature on something you will deny in the future.

#BreakingReport "Two Russian army tank regiments" are positioned east and north east of #Mariupol, waiting for orders to start the storm.

They will not stop fighting, before they've got it all.

And the 10.000s of Russian invaders will not stop, before the have #Odessa.

#BreakingStatement
"The DNR is all Donetsk region and the LC is all the Lugansk region."

-"Prime Minister" of the DNR Alexander Zaharchenko

Be prepared for a collapsing ceasefire over the next 72 hrs
Rus of all factions want to continue the battle
Military set-up almost complete.

Latest news raise the question, if #Putin only agreed to the ceasefire to gather enough troops for his final push on the entire #Donbas.

OUTLAW 09

09-09-2014, 04:08 PM

AP---more on your education of Russian fascism which you seem to have a deficient on.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/lily-hyde-fascism-is-not-sexy-363958.html

Not only me seeing it for what it is---by the way you need to sit in a party circle with late 20s early 30s young professional Russians here in Berlin and listen to some of their comments--one would think Obama is personally driving an American Abrams tank all the way to Moscow and NATO truly wants to build tens of bases in the Ukraine and that it is the US that wants to physical occupy the Ukraine.

Some of the group were Russian Jews who came to Berlin in the early 2000s---they even gave up arguing with them and would only roll their eyes with each comment from them.

Seriously virtually every propaganda messaging from Russian TV was heard that evening---and this from so called educated Russians.

That is why the SOCEUR Breedlove likened the current Russian info war to a total "blitz krieg".

AmericanPride

09-09-2014, 04:08 PM

AP---so after all these reports coming in about massive amounts of tanks and artillery and more troops flowing in---just what do you propose the West should negotiate about that they have not all ready indicated?

And what you are clearly missing is that the West, since the start of this conflict in March, has been in the weaker position. Sanctions have not and will not reverse Russia's gains in Ukraine. Contrary to your prediction, the destruction of the Malaysian airliner has no discernable impact on the conflict's outcome. Russia physically occupies Crimean while its proxies remain sufficiently strong in Donbas. That's called leverage - something the West clearly lacks in Ukraine and has not been able to gain. The cycle of action and counter-action escalating the tensions between the US/EU and Russia outside of Ukraine have their limits too. The Ukrainians know this - they also know given their economic and political situation, they cannot wage a perpetual war against Russia no matter how much U.S. hawks want to arm them with American weaponry.

That Russia had and continues to have the upper-hand given its geographic proximity and large amount of military materiel in the region, no one at all should be surprised about the outcome of this conflict. And what have the Ukrainians gained from fighting it besides a burdensome reconstruction projection in the future or the loss of thousands of lives? Is the Ukrainian government any more stable or independent? You are calculating the gains and losses using the February status quo as your baseline - hate to break it to you but the Russian intervention has changed that calculus, and not in favor of Ukraine. That's the point of the whole operation in the first place.

Ukraine's de jure claims in a negotiation will mean less over time so long as the de facto conditions favor Russia. That you continue to push for escalation knowing that Russia holds all the cards is very short-sighted and will only cost Ukraine more lives, treasure, and land in the long run.

OUTLAW 09

09-09-2014, 04:39 PM

And what you are clearly missing is that the West, since the start of this conflict in March, has been in the weaker position. Sanctions have not and will not reverse Russia's gains in Ukraine. Contrary to your prediction, the destruction of the Malaysian airliner has no discernable impact on the conflict's outcome. Russia physically occupies Crimean while its proxies remain sufficiently strong in Donbas. That's called leverage - something the West clearly lacks in Ukraine and has not been able to gain. The cycle of action and counter-action escalating the tensions between the US/EU and Russia outside of Ukraine have their limits too. The Ukrainians know this - they also know given their economic and political situation, they cannot wage a perpetual war against Russia no matter how much U.S. hawks want to arm them with American weaponry.

That Russia had and continues to have the upper-hand given its geographic proximity and large amount of military materiel in the region, no one at all should be surprised about the outcome of this conflict. And what have the Ukrainians gained from fighting it besides a burdensome reconstruction projection in the future or the loss of thousands of lives? Is the Ukrainian government any more stable or independent? You are calculating the gains and losses using the February status quo as your baseline - hate to break it to you but the Russian intervention has changed that calculus, and not in favor of Ukraine. That's the point of the whole operation in the first place.

Ukraine's de jure claims in a negotiation will mean less over time so long as the de facto conditions favor Russia. That you continue to push for escalation knowing that Russia holds all the cards is very short-sighted and will only cost Ukraine more lives, treasure, and land in the long run.

Again AP--so you consider negotiation over the long run as what "containing" this new form of Russian neo imperialism?---you still are not recognizing the sheer existence of this movement inside both Russia and within Putin.

If in fact a strong immediate economic sanction series ie cut off from SWIFT, cut off from 90 day lines of credit, hitting Gazprom immediately as well, and no stock sells had been done immediately after the Crimea annexation---- we would not be where we are today with the ongoing in your face annexation of southeastern Ukraine, the blatant kidnapping of an Estonia national CI officer to prove to Estonia that Russia is still the ruler over Estonia, and now the doubling in violation of ceasefire agreements of Russian troops in Moldavia in the last two weeks.

Really look at the current three fronts Russia has us dancing on---and what was the response to the last two of the three by the US/EU/NATO---nothing in reference to Moldavia and Estonia--right? Putin watches this like a hawk to see our responses and when nothing comes what do you think he thinks---"home free keep moving" until someone seriously calls me out---right AP?

You still do not get the use of POWER as an end goal and yet you seem to imply well let's let Putin change the last 25 years so he "can feel accepted" among the superpowers.

So what is the new "mantra" of politics? ---"we will swap land" for an alleged new form of "peace" so Putin will sleep better at night now that Russia has returned as a superpower in Putin's eyes---come on AP think your comments through.

Was that not what drove Chamberlain in 1938 and what did it get Europe in exchange in the end? Again another great example of "negotiation success--right?"

Historically there are times where hard economic responses can take the place of force-that is actually the concept behind "soft power" but in this case the US/EU did nothing at first-so really a fake response and Putin foresaw that move believe me----this was one of those moments and it basically failed and no negotiations are ever going to return the Crimea nor the coming creation of "New Russia" regardless of what you write.

You still are not admitting the existence of Russian fascism and what is driving their new form of neo imperialism nor even discussing what Russian neo imperialism is--how it has directly evolved as Communism waned--and how it has structured itself inside Russia and how it is now driving Russian foreign policy.

That my friend is the key in understanding Putin's moves and at the same time his paranoia about the US and western values.

Fascism under the guise of neo imperialism coupled with nuclear weapons and the recently voiced will to use them---we have not encountered at all even during the Cold War---and that my friend is a deadly combination.

Do not think for a moment--China is not watching how this plays out in reference to our will to pivot in the Far East--it is all connected.

By the way AP--this is how the "New Russian Army" is treating ethnic Russians in their "New Russia". Kind of looks like a dictatorship if one asks me or better yet like a country "conquered" by the Soviet Army in 1945---does not seem to be the expressed will of the ethnic Russians that Putin so claims he is "defending" does it?

#BreakingNews Russian terrorists and their local allies force all residents in #Horlivka btw. 20 and 60 to join them.
http://www.unian.net/politics/961003-snbo-terroristyi-zastavlyayut-jiteley-gorlovki-v-vozraste-ot-20-do-60-let-vstupat-v-samooboronu.html …

AmericanPride

09-09-2014, 04:51 PM

Again AP--so you consider negotiation over the long run as what "containing" this new form of Russian neo imperialism?---

Again - stop using the term "neo imperialism" because it's not accurate. And two, if you do insist on using it, drop the 'new' before 'neo'. Neo already means new. Containment would be a good idea - since it worked during the Cold War, it's a strategy that can be adopted to today if Russia continues to insist on resisting integration into the international system. And your alternative to negotiations and 'containment' is what exactly?

yet you seem to imply well let's let Putin change the last 25 years so he "can feel accepted" among the superpowers.

I've never said anything of the sort. Once again - stop making things up.

"we will swap land" for an alleged new form of "peace"

Russia already has the land. What more do you want to sacrifice? More Ukrainian lives?

Was that not what drove Chamberlain in 1938 and what did it get Europe in exchange in the end?

So - let's just jump to the Nazis and ignore, say, all the other numerous examples where U.S. Presidents negotiated with adversaries, including the Soviet Union, to de-escalate conflict. You won't do yourself any favors cherry-picking history.

You still are not admitting the existence of Russian fascism

Yawn.

nor even discussing what Russian neo imperialism is

I've spoken about Russian imperialism in the past in this thread - you're welcome to reference it.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 06:44 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 12:35 PM

Again AP---never seem to see your own comments other than critiquing others--standard I assume.

If you have referenced ?Russian fascism in the past--then write about it in extensive form now for example---as it is the core of Russian actions.

In addition to that core there is an extensive and very uncountered from the west effective info war going on and at times even Putin uses it as his main backup arguments---thus the "doublethink" or what I call the "altered state of reality".

This is what is known as "doublethink"---you might though call it simply propaganda--now let me see your comments on the article and again your short response to Russian fascism.

AP---below goes to the heart of Russian fascism.

http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2014/09/how-russia-revolutionizing-information-warfare/93635/#.VA_QhLEy0gg.twitter

Then we can continue this somewhat tiring exchange as you really do need to get out of the US and "see" another reality out there other than books.

AP--this video link will introduce you to some of the current Russian ideologs on the fascist side together with Girkin who was the first Russian leader of the DPR in the Ukraine.

Amazing video of Strelkov/Girkin & @A_G_Dugin & Malofeev all meeting at Putin's favourite monastery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRhUMI

Perfect example of the Russian FSB info war side of the house inside Russia currently.

Five minutes after this video link hit the blog sites it was removed.

AmericanPride

09-10-2014, 02:25 PM

Again AP---never seem to see your own comments other than critiquing others--standard I assume.

Once you again you are making stuff up. Simply because you have the habit of ignoring what other people are writing does not mean I do not have plenty of posts laying out my views.

If you have referenced ?Russian fascism in the past--then write about it in extensive form now for example---as it is the core of Russian actions.

You can go ahead and find and read my posts. I'm not going to repeat myself ad nauseam.

In addition to that core there is an extensive and very uncountered from the west effective info war going on and at times even Putin uses it as his main backup arguments---thus the "doublethink" or what I call the "altered state of reality".

Yeah - but that's not "doublethink". 'Doublethink' is genuinely believing two contradictory statements simultaneously; i.e. 'the sky is blue' and 'the sky is not blue'. Deception operations targeted against one's adversary do not fall into this category. Do you honestly believe that Putin, et. al think that there are no Russian soldiers of any kind in Ukraine? :rolleyes:

You can paint all of the separatists as mindless fascist drones under the operational control of Russia - and you would be right, but only to an extent. And it doesn't excuse the self-proclaimed Ukrainian fascists on the other side. That the separatists themselves have different ideas of what the political outcome should look like is an indicator of some degree of autonomy. And that Russia has consistently rebuffed any calls for annexation (including the embarrassing moment of ignoring the Donestsk independence referendum shortly after accepting the Crimean one) is also an indication of Moscow's limited objectives and ad hoc strategy. With multiple parties on each side of the negotiating table, that's makes it difficult to form a consensus. Poroshenko has also indicated his desire for a negotiated political outcome that includes some measures of autonomy for the eastern regions - what that looks like in practice and whether it will be sufficient remains to be seen. So - yes - for Ukraine, the way out is to negotiate an end to the conflict. That they are in worse position now than in February, and that their position will continue to degrade, is also a reason to negotiate. How many Ukrainians deaths are acceptable for your anti-Russian crusade? What's the post-conflict political environment look like? You have avoided these kinds of questions.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 02:25 PM

For those that believe that negotiations always tend to work this example from today referencing the agreed to prisoner exchange which Ukraine has held exactly to as negotiated.

Meaning providing the mercenaries with official government prisoner lists--check, providing list of mercenaries held--check, have released mercenaries--check---but of the 1200 listed and the unknown number of civilians being held only 600 or so are back.

Then this today pops up.

#BreakingNews DNR terrorists canceled exchange of prisoners, which was planned for today.
500+ stay in their hands.

AmericanPride

09-10-2014, 02:31 PM

For those that believe that negotiations always tend to work this example from today referencing the agreed to prisoner exchange which Ukraine has held exactly to as negotiated.

No here has claimed that 'negotiations always tend to work'. Care to cite anyone? Or are you making things up again?

Meaning providing the mercenaries with official government prisoner lists--check, providing list of mercenaries held--check, have released mercenaries--check---but of the 1200 listed and the unknown number of civilians being held only 600 or so are back.

So what you're saying is that there has been progress made, but it hasn't been perfect and immediate, and there is some work still to be done. Is that sufficient cause for the Ukrainian government to resume offensive operations? Is it an indicator that the separatists will continue hostilities? Or is it an indication that under the conditions, implementation is difficult and sometimes unpredictable? If you have spent as much time 'out there' or 'over there' as you claim is needed to be an expert, you'd understand this.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 02:40 PM

AP---instead of defending your own words that at the end negotiations are what happens you are now saying what negotiations do no good?

You did not respond to the previous questions on Russian fascism which I assume take to much time than defending negotiations does.

Another article that you need to read but will not--goes to the paranoia of Putin.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/29/putin-world-kremlin-moscow-power-circle?CMP=twt_gu

By the way AP here is a comment from a Russian that I did not pay to write what he did ---but again it references the concept of "altered state or reality". That you seem to push back on---notice my previous comments---it is extremely dangerous when a fascist state has nuclear weapons and really believes it's own propaganda.

In today's Novaya Gazeta, former Putin spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky claims Kremlin "psychologically infected by its own propaganda"

With such a state it is virtually impossible to negotiate with as they only understand Power nothing else--that though is where we differ again is it not?

AP--you do realize the term "money is a weapons system"--right?

And you would I assume also accept the statement that countries can be in fact at "war" economically?

AP---another perfect example delivered today by Russia to the above sentence.

BREAKING- #Ukraine's gas transit body Ukrtransgaz says #Russia has started limiting gas supplies to Poland to disrupt reverse flows.

AP ---even Putin's current actions goes against his own announced Foreign Policy Concept of 2013---and you still think Russia is acting what "rationally"?

Russian Foreign Policy Concept that President Putin approved on Feb. 18, 2013.

That document sets out Russia's principal foreign policy objectives, including the following: "promoting good-neighborly relations with adjoining states and helping to overcome existing and prevent potential tensions and conflicts in regions adjacent to the Russian Federation."

The document also declares Russia's commitment to developing bilateral and multilateral relations with other states based, among other things, on respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as the predictability and non-confrontational nature of Russian policies

AND after you Google and find the entire Putin approved Foreign Policy Concept of 2013---even signed by him---just where does it mention "spheres of influence" and or "buffer states"?

There is absolutely no mention of those two words---even when it is translated into English.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 03:30 PM

AP--there is an interesting pro Russian viewpoint in the recent Foreign Affairs referencing the fact that it was US and western liberals that provoked Putin's Crimea and eastern Ukraine adventures.

The argumentation s actually similar to yours, but then fell apart with this particular sentence which has been proved to be completely false.

So much for "trying to understood Russian complaints".

Besides, even if it wanted to, Russia lacks the capability to easily conquer and annex eastern Ukraine, much less the entire country. Roughly 15 million people -- one-third of Ukraine’s population -- live between the Dnieper River, which bisects the country, and the Russian border. An overwhelming majority of those people want to remain part of Ukraine and would surely resist a Russian occupation. Furthermore, Russia’s mediocre army, which shows few signs of turning into a modern Wehrmacht, would have little chance of pacifying all of Ukraine. Moscow is also poorly positioned to pay for a costly occupation; its weak economy would suffer even more in the face of the resulting sanctions.

See AP the article initially seems to blast the West as being at fault and while it seems to be well written then it's logic falls apart with this single paragraph as the individual evidently in his haste to condemn the West overlooked Russian reality since MH17.

It seems he to cannot see Russian ethno nationalist neo imperialism as well.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine-crisis-is-the-wests-fault

AmericanPride

09-10-2014, 03:47 PM

AP---instead of defending your own words that at the end negotiations are what happens you are now saying what negotiations do no good?

Did I say that? Or are you again inventing meanings where none exist? I have never said that 'negotiations always tend to work' and I have never said that 'negotiations do no good'. You said those things.

Let me walk you through it - there's a range of outcomes in negotiations. On one end is failure for all parties, on the other end is perfect and just implementation for all parties. In between, there are dozens if not hundreds of possibilities. Do 'negotiations always tend to work'? No - not with 'always' as the qualifier. Many times, negotiations fail. Just like war.

You did not respond to the previous questions on Russian fascism which I assume take to much time than defending negotiations does.

Like the time you take to actually read other people's posts and understand what they are writing? :eek:

With such a state it is virtually impossible to negotiate with as they only understand Power nothing else--that though is where we differ again is it not?

Is it? Or are you again making stuff up and ignoring what I'm writing? By the way - that's rhetorical question. You are ignoring what I'm writing.

There is absolutely no mention of those two words---even when it is translated into English.

So because a specific term doesn't exist in a specific document produced by a specific government, then that concept does not actually exist anywhere in practice? That's an interesting theory.

AP--there is an interesting pro Russian viewpoint in the recent Foreign Affairs referencing the fact that it was US and western liberals that provoked Putin's Crimea and eastern Ukraine adventures.

Yes - written by Mearsheimer. He's in the realist camp; in other words, international relations is about power and interests and that interstate relations are inherently adversarial.

but then fell apart with this particular sentence which has been proved to be completely false

What is "completely false" about Mearsheimer's block quote you provided? You have stated repeatedly that Russia is a second or third rate power with nothing to offer - are you going to dispute Mearsheimer's assessment that " Russia’s mediocre army, which shows few signs of turning into a modern Wehrmacht, would have little chance of pacifying all of Ukraine" and that "Moscowis also poorly positioned to pay for a costly occupation; its weak economy would suffer even more in the face of the resulting sanctions"?

It seems he to cannot see Russian ethno nationalist neo imperialism as well.

Once again - you are making stuff up. I direct you to my numerous posts describing my views on the Russian government and the construction of the Russian state.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 04:27 PM

AP--you claim you have written "alot" on the Russian fascism here--then expound in more detail pray tell.

You push back on anything and everything and yet you never seem to go into extensive detail so I can tear it apart line for line. That is an elegant way to tap dance around something solid---you went out on a limb with the thinking about negotiations and it got cut off by Putin's ceasefire which by the way---limited fighting directly with Russian troops was just occurring.

#BreakingReport Limited fights broke out around the besieged Ukrainian army position in #Debaltseve. - NSDC

#BreakingNews Ukrainian voluntary troops capture 2 Russian armed forces soldiers with a #MANPADS in #Luhansk oblast

You never did accept the idea of irrationality nor "altered state of reality", but I seems more than myself are seeing it and writing virtually the same thing.

Nice that others see it---no further need on you end to "see" it though.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/russia-putin-revolutionizing-information-warfare/379880/

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 04:45 PM

AP--two more articles that you need to read in order to correctly answer some of my questions that you have to now tap danced around.

One on the Russian love fest with the European Extreme Right but you knew that already when you failed to respond in detail to my questions on Russian "fascism".

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/strange-bedfellows-putin-and-europe%E2%80%99s-far-right

And two--an excellent understanding of Russia use of their new military doctrine "New Generation Warfare" ----but of course you have read that as well since I quote it often here as a critical one to fully understand when talking about Russian/Putin actions. Goes to the heart of Russian political warfare does it not?

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/yes-russia-matters-putin%E2%80%99s-guerrilla-strategy

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 05:32 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 06:25 PM

Seems that the Russian FM cannot get their messaging in order--it is interesting in that the UN legal section stated that it is in fact possible to remove Russia from the UNSC last week if it does not maintain the guidelines of a UNSC member state.

From Interfax today--first time this type of annulment has occurred by Interfax in years:

09/10 20:49 Please annul the news item headlined "No possibility in UN Charter to exclude Russia from Security Council - Churkin" issued at 20:42:34 Moscow time

09/10 20:43 No possibility in UN Charter to exclude Russia from Security Council - Churkin

But then Churkin is just a messenger who often steps off the deep end with no safety net for his comments.

20:27Russia's UN Envoy Churkin: Dutch Report on MH17 Crash Investigation Inadequate

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 06:38 PM

Seems even the Russian Border Security Command points to Moscow which appears to have lied about where the Estonia intelligence officer was arrested.

Both #Estonian and #Russian border guards signed an act after #EstoniaKidnap confirming it took place IN #Estonia.

pic.twitter.com/YfQYBpsaX9

AmericanPride

09-10-2014, 06:38 PM

AP--you claim you have written "alot" on the Russian fascism here--then expound in more detail pray tell.

There's a search function on this site for a reason. I recommend using it.

You push back on anything and everything and yet you never seem to go into extensive detail so I can tear it apart line for line

Actually - you just ignore the things I write and then claim I haven't written anything. I have asked you many questions that remain unanswered; here are some examples: (1) what's the best end-state for U.S. security, (2) how will the conflict's escalation impact the U.S.-Russian dyadic, (3) if a BUK is classified as a weapon of mass destruction, why not all air defense missiles; (4) how is Russian behavior uniquely objectionable compared to other states who act similarly (including the U.S.), especially on the subjects of commitment to treaty obligations and nuclear strategy? You also make patently false claims - like the Ukraine conflict being the first in Europe since 1945 to change national borders.

you went out on a limb with the thinking about negotiations and it got cut off by Putin's ceasefire which by the way---limited fighting directly with Russian troops was just occurring.

Is that why Poroshenko is pursuing negotiations and believes that the bulk of Russian forces have withdrawn from Ukraine? Or is he a Russian stooge too? Is he not close enough to the conflict or sufficiently experienced for you to consider his assessment credible?

And yeah - the Russians do have a powerful information operations machine and they're exercising it to full effect. But that the Russians have such a tool does not mean that the Russian leadership is "irrational" - in fact, it indicates the opposite. The deliberate construction of political 'reality' that not coincidentally is favorable to one's own interests is not a uniquely Russian endeavor either.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 07:18 PM

See AP when the propaganda tends to be believed then those that are really two bit players in the power game tend to sometimes turn on their masters or cannot be trusted to continue "following orders".

In moment of honesty, chairman says Donetsk was only 'witness' of 3-sided Minsk peace plan agreement between Russia, Ukraine & OSCE 1/2

DNR declares Minsk peace plan "unimplementable". Kremlin no doubt livid at this show of finely-orchestrated dissent..

http://tvrain.ru/articles/dnr_zajavila_o_nevozmozhnosti_realizatsii_mirnogo_ protokola-375210/ …

So much again for "negotiations".

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 07:24 PM

AP--some in the US tend AP to understand Putin better than say others in the US.

By the way AP from the same University that you derided the author who did the comparison of Putin to 1984

http://www.theeuropean-magazine.com/mark-galeotti/8970-putins-tactics-against-the-west

AP---read thoroughly his views---they are far more accurate what anything you have written here.

Putin came to power as a pragmatic nationalist, skeptical of Western values and aims, but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization. Since his return to the presidency in 2012, he has demonstrated an ideological and political shift towards a more aggressive Russian nationalism and a belief that a distinctive and irreplaceable culture faces an existential challenge from Western values and political ambitions.

So he is aggressively seeking not only to consolidate Russian influence in Eurasia but also to insulate it from what he regards as the negative influences outside its borders. Not a Russian “hermit kingdom” like North Korea, but connection to global economic and technological currents on his terms, without sacrificing domestic control and geopolitical autonomy. He may be – is – mistaken that this could be done, but this is at least a goal that is rational in its own terms.

Come on AP---"see and understand"---Russian fascism is the key--will take you back into the conversation of what constitutes a "rouge" country if you remember back that far.

Notice below the term "hot peace"--that is what you are seeing with his new military doctrine--New Generation Warfare.

However, Putin will not sacrifice his personal position or Russia in the name of ideology, empire, or personal crusade. So long as he still feels that the West is divided and irresolute – and no number of diplomatic statements will do anything to change this – he will continue to push and to needle.

He seeks not to invade the West, but to neuter it. At present, he knows that NATO is not eager for a fight and feels that the sanctions regime is both bearable and likely to ease once the fighting in Ukraine is over. Provocations like Kohver’s kidnap are intended to undermine Western morale and rhetoric (after all, it came just after U.S. President Obama delivered a stirring promise to defend Estonia).

This is what Putin’s “hot peace” will mean for the West: subtle and not-so-subtle efforts to weaken, divide, and distract. Strategic leaks of embarrassing information, cyber-attacks, military probes short of casus belli, business pressure and penetration, support for fringe political movements. Everything the West can imagine – short of war.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 07:40 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 07:51 PM

AP---these proposed sanctions will in fact get and have gotten Putin's attention ---thus the "playing" with the gas deliveries to Poland and Slovakia this week.

Putin Oil Deals With Exxon, Shell Imperiled by Sanctions - Bloomberg via @BloombergNews

http://bloom.bg/1wg8DoV

Now these are problematic for Russia.

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 08:34 PM

Appears that a SU25 parked at a Russia military airfield near Rostov has "New Russia" separatist markings.

Anyone know when the mercenaries developed an air force?

Groundattack SU-25 FROGFOOT with marking as belonging to "Novorossija".

pic.twitter.com/SxGcYjJ8ad

For a ceasefire near Mariupol it seems that the Ukrainians are killing Russian military and taking POWs.

Battalion Azov killed 20 Russians Soldiers and Took 11 POWs

pic.twitter.com/gDiOLPgsmu

OUTLAW 09

09-10-2014, 09:12 PM

Seems that finally OSCE "sees" Russian AD missile systems going into the Ukraine.

Breaking: "We are aware that #Russia has sent its newest air defence systems, including the SA-22, into E #Ukraine"

http://osce.usmission.gov/mobile//aug_28_14_russia_ukraine.html

AmericanPride

09-11-2014, 12:43 AM

By the way AP from the same University that you derided the author who did the comparison of Putin to 1984

There you go making stuff up again. Where did I deride the author?

AP---read thoroughly his views---they are far more accurate what anything you have written here.

Really? Because had you actually bothered to read anything I have written and then taken the typical step to not mis-characterize my statements, you would have found that I'm largely in agreement with the statement that "Putin came to power as a pragmatic nationalist, skeptical of Western values and aims, but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

It would also be nice if you separated your personal comments from the text of the articles you're quoting so you don't give the impression that you're plagiarizing.

So - is Poroshenko a Russian stooge for seeking a negotiated settlement and for claiming that the bulk of Russian forces are leaving Ukraine?

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 10:33 AM

There you go making stuff up again. Where did I deride the author?

Really? Because had you actually bothered to read anything I have written and then taken the typical step to not mis-characterize my statements, you would have found that I'm largely in agreement with the statement that "Putin came to power as a pragmatic nationalist, skeptical of Western values and aims, but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

It would also be nice if you separated your personal comments from the text of the articles you're quoting so you don't give the impression that you're plagiarizing.

So - is Poroshenko a Russian stooge for seeking a negotiated settlement and for claiming that the bulk of Russian forces are leaving Ukraine?

So AP---plagiarizing a nice term--I do in fact link to the articles which up to know you seem to ignore---liked though your side stepping comments on 1984which I assume you have never read was it was Orwell's solid work on fascism.

See there is a subtle difference again between us--you accepted the whole premise of the "but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

I would as do others here in Berlin that he had his agenda ie what he rolling with now long before he took power in 2001---if he was so sold on economic improvement for his population then he would not have taken the moves in Crimea and the Ukraine knowing full well he would be hit with heavy sanctions.

BUT see AP this is where he overestimated and relied to much on his fascist views of the west--again something you dismissed as fiction in 1984 where the main character also believed deeply in his fascist beliefs.

There is a bit of cognitive dissonance in Putin's views of the west---on one side he wants their economical/financial benefits then on the other he dismisses them as being far too liberal.

See AP if one looks deeper into the Russian economy and the robber barons ie oligarchs, himself, and the Russian mob--literally billions have been stolen and shipped to the safe havens of the "hated" west for safe keeping, he has raised the pension payments and created a pension fund which now that the sanctions have hit is being tapped to support the sanctioned banks and oil companies and Russia will have a hard time now balancing their budget ending Dec 2014 and no balancing for 2015. Pension announcements indicates a freezing at current levels which surprised many normal Russians this week.

Heck he cannot even support now the Crimea which he so bombastically announced in the Duma speech--reality won out.

Here is where it is getting interesting for Putin--several European economists who have long researched Russia are close to stating that the Russian economy is one large Ponzi scheme which in the past was oil/gas rich and no one "saw" any problems but now is on the verge of crashing as the costs it was to cover is now out of sight and the oil/gas cash flows are stagnating.

They need a 113 per barrel of Ural crude to cover budget costs---Russian sour crude tanked yesterday at 97 and is continuing to sink with an estimated bottom of roughly 88-92 --that hurts badly. Originally in 2008 Russia stated they would do fine on 95 per barrel--notice now how much of the budget is determined now by a price of 113---therein lies the Ponzi scheme.

Putin largely believed his moves in Crimea and eastern Ukraine would go as it did in Georgia and Moldavia---and was totally stunned by the western economic sanctions which while initially weak have gotten progressively stronger and are in fact hurting now especially on the capital loans side of the house.

While you are right--Russian troops are pulling out it is due to a multi fold reason---there are reports coming out of Moscow---they simply cannot cover the expeditionary costs for long, the social media has awakened the Russian masses to what is going on inside Russian AND surprisingly Putin has realized that he has conducted an "illegal" invasion without Duma approval--remember I mentioned that Russia places great emphasis on "legality".

Do not think for a moment any western actions contributed to the pull backs which actually are only parking them on the border not taking them back to their home bases.

When the word is "thousands" it does not reflect the key armor, artillery and SF units needed inside to keep the Ukrainian Army at bay. But if the Ukraine does in fact sign the EU Assoc agreement without the Russian inputs being accepted which the EU has already said they cannot do---watch then the drive to Odessa.
By the way there are three rumored reasons coming out of Moscow for the pull back---one is they have no o more money for an expeditionary force , two the mothers of KIA/WIA soldiers are gaining internal support traction and back to the Russian "legality thing"---he has no Duma approval for sending Russian troops into the Ukraine. The western reaction has nothing to do with the pullback and or Ukrainian negotiations--simply technical in nature.

NOTE: If this Ukrainian military briefing map is correct Putin controls a massively large portion of south eastern Ukraine already and he will not be giving it up anytime soon if one looks at Georgia and Moldavia.

War in Ukraine looks like this today, acc to Sec Council. If true, huge gains for rebels along border N of Novoazovsk

pic.twitter.com/yEm0cdnUrC

Where Putin is again miscalculating is in his use of his "gas cards"---he thinks by cutting small amounts in four countries he can get the new sanctions delayed or stopped--what he does not understand and again because of his not understanding the west--- it will drive the EU into even harder sanctions and this time aimed at Gazprom especially on the cartel violations side.

What many in the US do not understand in those agreements is an nice Russia cash earning tactic--you sign an agreement for X amount of gas per year but do not take it because the winter was mild---hey you still have to pay for the unused amounts---nice earnings package---but here is where Gazprom is in a bind---if it does not deliver the agreed to amount on monthly basis they can be hit will penalties and they are not small.

But the amounts being small yesterday have increased into a virtual gas "war" now.

RUS cuts gas supplies to PL by 45% now. Expect SK to report such gas cuts soon. RUS warning ag/ fresh EU sanctions

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 11:11 AM

So AP---plagiarizing a nice term--I do in fact link to the articles which up to know you seem to ignore---liked though your side stepping comments on 1984which I assume you have never read was it was Orwell's solid work on fascism.

See there is a subtle difference again between us--you accepted the whole premise of the "but essentially convinced that Russia’s future lay in greater cooperation and economic modernization".

I would as do others here in Berlin that he had his agenda ie what he rolling with now long before he took power in 2001---if he was so sold on economic improvement for his population then he would not have taken the moves in Crimea and the Ukraine knowing full well he would be hit with heavy sanctions.

BUT see AP this is where he overestimated and relied to much on his fascist views of the west--again something you dismissed as fiction in 1984 where the main character also believed deeply in his fascist beliefs.

There is a bit of cognitive dissonance in Putin's views of the west---on one side he wants their economical/financial benefits then on the other he dismisses them as being far too liberal.

See AP if one looks deeper into the Russian economy and the robber barons ie oligarchs, himself, and the Russian mob--literally billions have been stolen and shipped to the safe havens of the "hated" west for safe keeping, he has raised the pension payments and created a pension fund which now that the sanctions have hit is being tapped to support the sanctioned banks and oil companies and Russia will have a hard time now balancing their budget ending Dec 2014 and no balancing for 2015. Pension announcements indicates a freezing at current levels which surprised many normal Russians this week.

Heck he cannot even support now the Crimea which he so bombastically announced in the Duma speech--reality won out.

Here is where it is getting interesting for Putin--several European economists who have long researched Russia are close to stating that the Russian economy is one large Ponzi scheme which in the past was oil/gas rich and no one "saw" any problems but now is on the verge of crashing as the costs it was to cover is now out of sight and the oil/gas cash flows are stagnating.

They need a 113 per barrel of Ural crude to cover budget costs---Russian sour crude tanked yesterday at 97 and is continuing to sink with an estimated bottom of roughly 88-92 --that hurts badly. Originally in 2008 Russia stated they would do fine on 95 per barrel--notice now how much of the budget is determined now by a price of 113---therein lies the Ponzi scheme.

Putin largely believed his moves in Crimea and eastern Ukraine would go as it did in Georgia and Moldavia---and was totally stunned by the western economic sanctions which while initially weak have gotten progressively stronger and are in fact hurting now especially on the capital loans side of the house.

While you are right--Russian troops are pulling out it is due to a multi fold reason---there are reports coming out of Moscow---they simply cannot cover the expeditionary costs for long, the social media has awakened the Russian masses to what is going on inside Russian AND surprisingly Putin has realized that he has conducted an "illegal" invasion without Duma approval--remember I mentioned that Russia places great emphasis on "legality".

Do not think for a moment any western actions contributed to the pull backs which actually are only parking them on the border not taking them back to their home bases.

When the word is "thousands" it does not reflect the key armor, artillery and SF units needed inside to keep the Ukrainian Army at bay. But if the Ukraine does in fact sign the EU Assoc agreement without the Russian inputs being accepted which the EU has already said they cannot do---watch then the drive to Odessa.
By the way there are three rumored reasons coming out of Moscow for the pull back---one is they have no o more money for an expeditionary force , two the mothers of KIA/WIA soldiers are gaining internal support traction and back to the Russian "legality thing"---he has no Duma approval for sending Russian troops into the Ukraine. The western reaction has nothing to do with the pullback and or Ukrainian negotiations--simply technical in nature.

NOTE: If this Ukrainian military briefing map is correct Putin controls a massively large portion of south eastern Ukraine already and he will not be giving it up anytime soon if one looks at Georgia and Moldavia.

War in Ukraine looks like this today, acc to Sec Council. If true, huge gains for rebels along border N of Novoazovsk

pic.twitter.com/yEm0cdnUrC

Where Putin is again miscalculating is in his use of his "gas cards"---he thinks by cutting small amounts in four countries he can get the new sanctions delayed or stopped--what he does not understand and again because of his not understanding the west--- it will drive the EU into even harder sanctions and this time aimed at Gazprom especially on the cartel violations side.

What many in the US do not understand in those agreements is an nice Russia cash earning tactic--you sign an agreement for X amount of gas per year but do not take it because the winter was mild---hey you still have to pay for the unused amounts---nice earnings package---but here is where Gazprom is in a bind---if it does not deliver the agreed to amount on monthly basis they can be hit will penalties and they are not small.

But the amounts being small yesterday have increased into a virtual gas "war" now.

RUS cuts gas supplies to PL by 45% now. Expect SK to report such gas cuts soon. RUS warning ag/ fresh EU sanctions

AP---again Putin shows his true colors ie his strategy which even with your negotiation ideas and or "trying to understand him" will not drive out of him.

This is the four open public statement inside one week made by Putin using the term "New Russia"---think he is serious about that term?---I do.

If you're counting, Putin said 'Novorossiya' in public again last night after lighting a candle for 'defenders'

http://www.kremlin.ru/video/2698

For those that somehow Russian troops will fully being leaving the Ukraine anytime soon---building military checkpoints might be a good indicator they are not leaving anytime soon.

Russian forces started to Build Checkpoints in Herson Oblast

https://twitter.com/rnbo_gov_ua/status/510001744643096576

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 11:40 AM

AP--this is another perfect example of the concept of "altered state of reality".

This dude a FSB officer and former leader of the DNR Girkin real name was first pulled back to Russia and now he seems to be back with Russian support.

Was recently seen with a group of ultra nationalists near Moscow.

He is not even Ukrainian nor from eastern Ukraine and fought in Bosnia and is wanted for war crimes there, Georgia, then Crimea and now Donetsk.

Notice the reference to liberals wanting to throw out Putin reference.

Strelkov: best way for people to save Russia from destruction by western agents is to stay, not support opposition
pic.twitter.com/xsj6aavb3h

NOTE: he seems to be concerned that over 500K will leave the Donetsk region for the other Ukraine and thus his area will not develop without workers.

Igor Strelkov giving "closed briefing" now, favourite phrase seems to be 'Fifth Column', accuses liberals of plotting to overthrow Putin

NOTE: this article seems to be the mantra for those Russian ultra nationalists supporting Putin.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/daily-mail-wests-plan-to-force-out-putin-will-backfire-moscow-claims-us-is-exploiting-ukraine-conflict-in-bid-to-force-russian-president-out-of-power-363671.html

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 11:48 AM

AP--notice now the formal use by the Russian News Agency Interfax of the "New Russia".

And the west really believes the south east Ukrainian annexation has not occurred?

From Interfax today: Notice the surreal altered state of reality as if they are going to put on public trial Ukrainian officials residing in another location of the Ukraine?

Novorossiya entity collecting documentary evidence of crimes in east Ukraine

MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) - The Popular Front of Novorossiya (PFN) is collecting documentary evidence of crimes committed by Ukrainian servicemen, PFN Co-chairman Konstantin Dolgov said at a meeting of the committee for support to the population of south-eastern Ukraine held at the Federation Council on Thursday.

"We are collecting material evidence... for a public tribunal to try the culprits of these crimes. Ukrainian Interior Minister Avakov and Dnipropetrovsk Region Governor Ihor Kolomoyskyi will be amongst those to stand trial publicly," Dolgov said.

At the meeting State Duma deputy Valery Rashkin (the Communist Party) said "both sides in the conflict are guilty [of the hostilities] to one degree or another, but the degree of their responsibility is different." "The Ukrainian authorities are responsible for massive civilian casualties, and looting is the biggest charge we can bring against the insurgent forces. Our primary objective is the maximum involvement [in preparations for the public tribunal] of representatives of international human rights structures in this process so that we are not accused of bias and so that the investigation has objective and impartial results," Rashkin said.

NOTE: notice the word "looting"--there have been countless videos and citizen reports of looting by the mercenaries which are fully documented and yet they turn it around and charge Kiev---AP another perfect example of "doublethink". The mercenaries themselves executed two of their own for looting an Metro store of alcohol.

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 11:55 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 12:01 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 12:25 PM

This could be extremely funny if not coming from a Russian national TV station.

US ruled by Nazi Aliens--and Snowden proves it-----seriously.

US is ruled by nazi aliens, says Russian REN TV. And guess what - Snowden's files prove it.

http://ren.tv/novosti/2014-09-11/amerikoy-pravyat-inoplanetnye-nacisty …

AP--and you seriously do not believe in "doublethink" ie "altered state of reality"?

Seems now this press conference might have been actually recorded earlier and then this came out over the net concerning a possible hanging of the individual.

It's very int. considering it appears that LIVE presser was in fact TAPED earlier it seems. .@Fake_MIDRF

Seems like the Russian info war is getting a tad confused these days as to what is real and what is fake.

Then this net announcement that he might have been hanged---true agitprop or real is the question? Who said Putin cannot create suspense inside Russian politics?

#Strelkov dead?
Hmm.. perpetuate 'the man, the myth,' & it's probably agitprop. Anyone?

http://crimelist.ru/archives/49674-kriminalnaya-hronika-rossii … @AP

pic.twitter.com/RSCUXch0r8

Some of the running net comments on his alleged "death"----

He threatened Putin, and was a close witness in the Crimea, so if recorded earlier there is the reason to kill him - treason - & Kremlin released it as warning

@RobPulseNews @AP it was not long back it was said how he could go into politics! so that could be a logical conclusion. Remove all Threats

AmericanPride

09-11-2014, 02:37 PM

liked though your side stepping comments on 1984which I assume you have never read was it was Orwell's solid work on fascism.

Nineteen-Eighty Four was a critique of totalitarianism generally not fascism specifically. And it, like Animal Farm, was written in response to the extremes of Stalinism, which itself was not a form of fascism. While I would normally write this off as misinterpretation, your fast and loose way with definitions and history (how many wars in Europe since 1945 have there been?) indicate to me your deliberate misreading, which best case is irresponsible and worst case dishonest.

BUT see AP this is where he overestimated and relied to much on his fascist views of the west--again something you dismissed as fiction in 1984 where the main character also believed deeply in his fascist beliefs

Again you are playing fast and loose with definitions.

Putin has realized that he has conducted an "illegal" invasion without Duma approval--remember I mentioned that Russia places great emphasis on "legality".

One of the characteristics of fascism is the absence of legality.

Do not think for a moment any western actions contributed to the pull backs which actually are only parking them on the border not taking them back to their home bases.

Again - had you bothered reading my comments you would have realized that I've stated repeatedly that there are few, if any, things that the West can do to reverse Russia's gains and that sanctions specifically will be ineffective. I'm glad that you are in agreement now.

For those that somehow Russian troops will fully being leaving the Ukraine anytime soon---building military checkpoints might be a good indicator they are not leaving anytime soon.

Who said that Russian troops would be fully leaving soon? You really thinking that in the coming political stage that Russia is going to fully surrender its trump card? It's called leverage and it's a concept you have continually failed to understand. The longer the conflict, the more Russia escalates, and the more leverage it gains in any subsequent political settlement.

AP--and you seriously do not believe in "doublethink" ie "altered state of reality"?

Unlike you, I'm not quick to interpret every comment and rumor from all corners of the internet as ground, inalienable truth.

So - again, with the Kiev pursuing a negotiated settlement, offering political concessions to the militants, and acknowledging the withdrawal of Russian forces, is the Ukrainian president a Russian stooge?

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 03:35 PM

AP--interesting remarks concerning Ukrainian president as a stooge.

You AP really do need to expand your reading spectrum.

In the last 24 hrs of your "negotiated" ceasefire the Russian ground forces have nearly doubled the amount of territory under their control and expanded military control points in two regions where previously there were none.

AP---And that is what a "negotiated" Ukrainian land give away program?.

So AP with the "so called thousands of Russian troops who you think went home"--just then who is doing the expanding---"little green mice"?

Reference expanding---AP this particular checkpoint while under Ukrainian control is fully surrounded by those "little green mice" that are suppose to be headed home----someone must have forgot to tell them about leaving the Ukraine---you will notice the "New Russian battle flag" on the T72 parked near them---AND in the photos the UA unit has no anti tank weapons.

http://inforesist.org/okruzhennyj-blokpost-vozle-slavyanoserbska-fotoreportazh/
Come on AP expand your vision--it is to narrow.

AP---reference your comments concerning internet info--by the way probably right now far more accurate than anyone is getting out of the western capitals and western media.

HERE AP is a comment concerning the Leaving: of Russian troops by a Ukrainian former LTC who served several times in Iraq with the US and who is probably one of the better informed individuals when it comes to ground fighting info.

Read intently his comments which I tend to agree with--Russia is simply conducting troop rotation due to the pounding some of the units took ie this is factually correct based (ie geo tagged) on the number of again AP "internet photos, reports and videos" ALL of which did not come from western mass media did they?

Actually the western mass media you can leave at the coat check in point as they have been thoroughly driven into the ground by the Russian info war campaign. anything reported say today in Europe tends to show up in the US media 2 days later and that is what fast, medium fast, and or darn right slow?

Earlier, President P. Poroshenko stated that, according to military intelligence data, Russia has withdrawn 70% of its troops from the Donbas.

We are a little less optimistic. The removal of a fixed number of troops is obvious, however it is difficult to argue that the Russians do not use the ceasefire to rotate their units who got it pretty good from our troops in recent battles before the Minsk protocol was signed. And therefore, it is better to wait before celebrating. Especially because, while Russian troops are leaving the northeastern conflict zones, they are accumulating in the south, in the direction of Mariupol.

What we don’t like even more is the flow of Russian fuel tankers coming from Russia to Donbas. God knows, hopefully the Russian occupants need the fuel to leave Ukraine, and not for [further] offensive operations.

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 03:57 PM

AP--interesting remarks concerning Ukrainian president as a stooge.

You AP really do need to expand your reading spectrum.

In the last 24 hrs of your "negotiated" ceasefire the Russian ground forces have nearly doubled the amount of territory under their control and expanded military control points in two regions where previously there were none.

AP---And that is what a "negotiated" Ukrainian land give away program?.

So AP with the "so called thousands of Russian troops who you think went home"--just then who is doing the expanding---"little green mice"?

Come on AP expand your vision--it is to narrow.

AP---reference your comments concerning internet info--by the way probably right now far more accurate than anyone is getting out of the western capitals and western media.

HERE AP is a comment concerning the Leaving: of Russian troops by a Ukrainian former LTC who served several times in Iraq with the US and who is probably one of the better informed individuals when it comes to ground fighting info.

Read intently his comments which I tend to agree with--Russia is simply conducting troop rotation due to the pounding some of the units took ie this is factually correct based (ie geo tagged) on the number of again AP "internet photos, reports and videos" ALL of which did not come from western mass media did they?

Actually the western mass media you can leave at the coat check in point as they have been thoroughly driven into the ground by the Russian info war campaign. anything reported say today in Europe tends to show up in the US media 2 days later and that is what fast, medium fast, and or darn right slow?

Earlier, President P. Poroshenko stated that, according to military intelligence data, Russia has withdrawn 70% of its troops from the Donbas.

We are a little less optimistic. The removal of a fixed number of troops is obvious, however it is difficult to argue that the Russians do not use the ceasefire to rotate their units who got it pretty good from our troops in recent battles before the Minsk protocol was signed. And therefore, it is better to wait before celebrating. Especially because, while Russian troops are leaving the northeastern conflict zones, they are accumulating in the south, in the direction of Mariupol.

What we don’t like even more is the flow of Russian fuel tankers coming from Russia to Donbas. God knows, hopefully the Russian occupants need the fuel to leave Ukraine, and not for [further] offensive operations.

AP---the above comments are probably correct as to the reasons for the troop rotations.

This today from the Ukrainian NDSC as it Russian troops loses and the Ukrainians have been pretty good about their numbers being accurate---the number of killed are close to the truth if one checks the Russian "internet social media"--but then you tended to criticize the internet info did you not?

#Russian soldiers fighting in #Ukraine: 2K killed, 8K injured. Came from 18units, 10 #Russian regions - @NSDC_ua presser

Remember AP over 80% of all intelligence is simply open source---one just needs to understand where to look for it and how to interpret it--as simple as that.

Basically not bad results for an unmanned, underequipped with virtually no heavy weapons, rag tag group of soldiers mixed with independent BNs.

The Ukrainian Army simply ran out of steam since they have been fighting non stop for over five months---the ceasefire time if you really check is being used to refit, reorg and redistribute their strength.

#Ukrainian forces in S.-E. #Ukraine that withdrew w/in the last 24hrs did so to form a unified frontline - #NSC presser

Why the realignment AP?---they simply understand Putin's inherent desire to occupy all of the "New Russia" and to build a land corridor to the Crimea over Odessa--that is where the Russian next push will be aimed at.

So in some aspects even the mercenaries are correct---the UA is using the ceasefire to their benefit as well.

Plus the west needed the time for the next round of sanctions which was going to be harder to get a unified 28 block on.

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 05:03 PM

Appears the "thousands of Russian troops leaving" where in fact a rather unscheduled troop rotation due to losses.

Plus this that came via the internet today:

Russia hasn't ruled out a likely return to military action in the absence of political success

http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2014-09-10/ceasefire-eastern-ukraine … #Russia #UkraineJ

Just today's Russian troop movements back over the Ukrainian border.

The #Russian_invasion continues.
12 tanks,48 BRDM,28 Ural,4air defense vehicle and 5 tankers entered via #Izvaryne today-Ukr border guards

Heavy military machinery moves into #Ukraine & out through 3 BCPs - Izvaryne, Dovzhansky, Novoazovsk at uncontrolled border part - NSC

Via #Beloyarovka near #Amvrosievka entered 76 military vehicles under the Russian flag

Via #Novoazovsk entered another 10 tanks and2 BM-21 Grad.

AmericanPride

09-11-2014, 05:06 PM

AP--interesting remarks concerning Ukrainian president as a stooge.

It's actually a question as indicated by the '?' at the end. Feel free to respond to any of my questions at any time - you know, in the interest of having a conversation rather than mindlessly pushing your agenda.

In the last 24 hrs of your "negotiated" ceasefire the Russian ground forces have nearly doubled the amount of territory under their control and expanded military control points in two regions where previously there were none.

It's not my "negoated ceasefire". Now if Russians are taking that as an opportunity to expand the separatist control of territory, then that raises serious questions about the ability of the Ukrainian Army to win this conflict in the first place. You've yet to answer the question about what Ukraine has actually gained from this campaign besides billions of dollars of reconstruction costs and thousands of lives lost. Even with the revolt of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, before the direct Russian intervention, before the dissolution of the Ukrainian Army, the government had an opportunity to find a political solution. And now that Russia has virtually guaranted the survival of the separatist movement, you're just now asking what can be done about it? It's a little late for that.

AP---And that is what a "negotiated" Ukrainian land give away program?.

That's what happens when a country fights a war it can't win. But since Ukrainians missed opportunities in February, March, and May to resolve the conflict with negotiations, they took a major risk and thus far they've been on the losing end. Now - given that Ukraine can't win a military conflict with Russia, and that the longer the conflict persists, the more leverage Russia gains, what do you propose is in Ukraine's best interests in resolving the conflict?

So AP with the "so called thousands of Russian troops who you think went home"--just then who is doing the expanding---"little green mice"?

You tell me - it's the Ukrainian government that's making the claim about the withdrawal of Russian forces. If that doesn't square with your fantasy of fascist Russian drones overwhelming Ukraine, that's not my problem.

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 05:26 PM

It's actually a question as indicated by the '?' at the end. Feel free to respond to any of my questions at any time - you know, in the interest of having a conversation rather than mindlessly pushing your agenda.

It's not my "negoated ceasefire". Now if Russians are taking that as an opportunity to expand the separatist control of territory, then that raises serious questions about the ability of the Ukrainian Army to win this conflict in the first place. You've yet to answer the question about what Ukraine has actually gained from this campaign besides billions of dollars of reconstruction costs and thousands of lives lost. Even with the revolt of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, before the direct Russian intervention, before the dissolution of the Ukrainian Army, the government had an opportunity to find a political solution. And now that Russia has virtually guaranted the survival of the separatist movement, you're just now asking what can be done about it? It's a little late for that.

That's what happens when a country fights a war it can't win. But since Ukrainians missed opportunities in February, March, and May to resolve the conflict with negotiations, they took a major risk and thus far they've been on the losing end. Now - given that Ukraine can't win a military conflict with Russia, and that the longer the conflict persists, the more leverage Russia gains, what do you propose is in Ukraine's best interests in resolving the conflict?

You tell me - it's the Ukrainian government that's making the claim about the withdrawal of Russian forces. If that doesn't square with your fantasy of fascist Russian drones overwhelming Ukraine, that's not my problem.

AP--you speak of drones---so do you fully understand that Russia "views" US drones as being a violation of the INF?---not sure if you would agree that a Reaper or Pred can carry nuclear weapons but somehow the Russians think so.

Especially in light of the fact that Russia has successfully test fired a 3600km nuclear tipped cruise missile and the US launches what a Reaper with 4 Hellfire missiles or better yet a Pred with 2 hellfire missiles both barely having the range to reach say Minsk from Germany---come on AP even you have to see the humor in the Russian comments these days.

AP--another example of "doublethink" or simply put "altered state of reality".

Do you not think?

Russia says dissatisfied with U.S. talks over arms treaty concerns---wow

Russia gets caught in violation of the INF and they are "dissatisfied"?

Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:25am EDT

By Thomas Grove

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday it was dissatisfied with talks held with U.S. officials to address concerns that Moscow had violated a Cold War-era arms control agreement by testing a ground-launched cruise missile.

Relations between the two countries are at their lowest since the Cold War because of Russia's role in the crisis in Ukraine, and both Moscow and Washington question the other's commitment to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.

Russia argues that Washington's use of drones and other intermediate-range arms amounts to a violation of the treaty and has said that planned U.S. weapons tests in Romania and Poland may also breach the agreement.

The talks in Moscow were attended by U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller. The U.S. side had no immediate comment, said a spokesman for the U.S. embassy in Moscow.

"We were not satisfied with their answers," said the Russian Foreign Ministry's arms control chief Mikhail Ulyanov, who represented the Russian side at the talks.

"We would have liked our American colleagues to have formed their concerns more clearly and understandably, not in general, but concretely," he told Russian news agency Itar-Tass.

The INF treaty eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km (300-3,400 miles) near the end of the Cold War.

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 05:44 PM

AP---since you seemed to have avoided an in depth view on Russian fascism although you did mention a few comments on the topic.

More Russian fascism info to bring you up to date---and yet you dismissed 1984 as applying---strange move on that comment.

Interestingly he seems to agree with my assessments of Russian fascism being a current driver of Putin.

Putin’s Russia Becoming Fascist ‘at a Gallop,’ Shiropayev Says

Paul Goble September 8, 2014

Staunton, September 8 – Russia has been transformed by the war in Ukraine, with some calling this a restoration of the past and others a new turn to “Russianness,” but Aleksey Shiropayev argues that what is taking place is in fact the imposition of a fascist system “at a galloping pace.’

On Rufabula.com, the commentator and leader of Russia’s National Democratic Alliance says that Putin’s war in Ukraine has thrown Russian back from its moves toward democracy and Europe and created the conditions for “an extremely dark Russian future.”

Indeed, he says, in the course of the conflict with Ukraine, “Russian fascism has become a FACT,” something underscored by the Kremlin’s own behavior. When its propagandists speak of “the Kiev fascist junta, they are behaving just like when an everyday thief shouts out ‘Catch the thief!’” in order to escape justice.

“Putin and his KGB clique,” Shiropayev says, “have decided to base their actions on everything that is most reactionary in [Russia’s] historical inheritance, on everything that during the Yeltsin era, the country was not able to escape.” Indeed, “the chief historical failure of Yeltsinism is that he did not create a NEW European Russian.”

The hatred toward Ukraine now in evidence “has absolutely changed Russia for the worse,” he continues. “It has become clear that mass Russian consciousness remains absolutely imperialist and chauvinist” and that “Russia is prepared to consider Ukraine only as its colony or as scorched earth.”

Indeed, he concludes, “the current hatred to the Slav Ukrainians has eclipsed even the hatred to the Chechens during the periods of the first and second Chechen wars.”

The atmosphere in Russia has “terribly changed,” and the country is now afflicted with a kind of “mass insanity” ranging from the near universal wearing of St. George ribbons to the formation of “anti-Maidan militias” which are “the analogue of the ‘Black Hundreds’ of the beginning of the last century.”

The Russian majority has “ACCEPTED fascization and is ready to agree to political repressions even massive ones against those who think differently and the complete suppression of the small remaining segments of freedom” in their country. In such a situation, “the development of democracy and civil society becomes impossible and even more unnecessary for SUCH a people.”

What that kind of people needs is “a leader, terror and militarism.” It needs “hoary myths, stimulating mass hatred and mass pride,” Shiropayev says.

What exists in Russia now is a dictatorship with “clearly marked tendencies toward totalitarianism.” Fear has returned “as a factor of social-political life,” putting those who disagree “with the anti-Ukrainian and neo-imperial policy of the Kremlin” at risk of becoming victims of “moral and political terror.”

One result of this is that “the relationship of Russia and Ukraine will NEVER be as it was. Ukraine will never forget” the war Russia has unleashed against it. “Ukraine is lost for Russia as an empire FOREVER. From now on,” the two countries will be divided by the blood that has been shed.

According to the Moscow commentator, “the war with Ukraine represents not so much a direct continuation of the disintegration of the USSR as the apotheosis of the agony of imperial Russia in general, an agony which beginning in 1917 has been dragging on for an entire century.”

But another result of this war is that “Russians themselves will never be what they were. Each new day of the war with Ukraine injures Russia above all,” increasing the levels of “aggression and coarseness in society” and leaving Russia less the country of Putin alone but a nation of Putin clones and one that supports “Putin’s fascism.”

Curing Russia from this “fascist infection will be very difficult,” Shiropayev says, because it is “always simpler to become infected than to be cured” and because “in order to get better, Russia will need to LOSE this war in a shameful fashion.”

But that could itself entail “an enormous danger,” he continues, because “the Russia of the Putins could become transformed into the country of the Rogozins and the Barkashovs,” people who think that Putin himself is “insufficiently consistent and decisive.”

Putin has become “a hostage of his own policy” even as he has made Russia a hostage to it, and “already he cannot turn back, he is simply forced to go further along the path of more escalation, because at his back are breathing the Dugins and Strelkovs, the legion of those” who want to drown Ukraine in blood.

Thanks to Putin’s policies and the Russian population’s response, Russia has “thrown itself out of European civilization, out of the circle of civilized country and from now on will move closer to others above all China.” But China is “a stronger player” and Russia will find itself in a dependent position as a result, one that will recall the Mongol yoke in which it wil be “a new historical variant of the ‘Muscovite ulus.’”

But there is an even larger consequence. “Over the last six months, the world has sharply changed and something evil has clearly come into it,” Shiropayev says. “The war of Russian against Ukraine is an obvious prelude to the Third World War,” a conflict that will be “the last war in the history of humanity” and one that Russia will have triggered.

Many will dismiss this as improbable alarmism, he notes, but a year ago, they would have dismissed as impossible things that have happened thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Shiropayev says his own conclusions deserve attention because he predicted as early as August 24, 2008 that Putin would invade Ukraine.

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 05:59 PM

AP--another article this time from July 2014--that should expand your views on what is driving Putin and "it ain't NATO expansionism" as is claimed by Putin so often.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/15/sources_putin_conduct_kremlin_cold_war_arms

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 06:06 PM

New Russian armored vehicle in eastern Ukraine--was recently called into action due to heavy Russian losses.

https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/510060497518231552/photo/1

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 06:56 PM

AmericanPride

09-11-2014, 07:14 PM

AP--you speak of drones---so do you fully understand that Russia "views" US drones as being a violation of the INF?---not sure if you would agree that a Reaper or Pred can carry nuclear weapons but somehow the Russians think so.

And this is the crux of your problem. You (possibily intentionally) take a misreading of other people's words, statements, meanings, and definitions. And then, further, you attempt to critique or dismiss the other's statements on the basis of your own misreading. Your 'arguments' consist mostly of straw man constructions and ad hominen attacks, combined with a toxic dose of other fallacies. When I said 'drones', what indication did I give that I meant unmanned aerial vehicles?

More Russian fascism info to bring you up to date---and yet you dismissed 1984 as applying---strange move on that comment.

Because - again - this would be a misreading of 1984.

AP--another article this time from July 2014--that should expand your views on what is driving Putin and "it ain't NATO expansionism" as is claimed by Putin so often.

Nothing in that article contradicts the assertion that NATO expansionism is perceived as national security threat by Russia.

OUTLAW 09

09-11-2014, 08:44 PM

AP---another Russian "doublethink"--or "altered state of reality.

"Doublethink"--the ability to say two completely different thoughts and yet still believe both of them.

US bombing on IS in Syria would be considered an act of aggression but what the sending of 15,000 Russian troops and heavy weapons into the Ukraine and the downing of MH17 by Russia AD missile troops on Ukrainian soli is what?

Oh wait they were on vacation and or defense contractors and that does not count as an "official Russian act of aggression"?

Come on AP---even you have to see now the "doublethink" in action.

From Interfax this evening:
Moscow would take U.S. airstrikes on Syria without Damascus' consent as aggression - Foreign Ministry (Part 2)

MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) - The U.S.' possible airstrikes on positions of terrorists from the Islamic State in Syria without Damascus' consent and without UN Security Council sanction would constitute an act of aggression against the country, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said.

Notice AP the "doublethink" in this sentence---we Russia can send Russian military vacationers and actual Russian troops into the Ukraine without asking permission BUT you the US cannot.

"The U.S. president has declared directly that the American armed forces could strike the Islamic State's positions on Syrian territory without the legitimate government's consent. Such a step in the absence of a UN Security Council decision would be an act of aggression and a gross violation of international law," Lukashevich said at a news conference in Moscow in reply to a question from Interfax.

Now AP think this sentence structure through---we can shot down civilian airliners, we can declare eastern Ukraine "New Russia", we can send Russian troops as vacationers all without the UNSC BUT You the US need UNSC approval for your actions (but whoa not Russia)---come again AP even you can see the disconnect ie "altered state of reality".

"There are reasons to presume that Syrian government forces could also be exposed to the strikes in this case, with all the ensuing grave consequences in terms of the further escalation of tensions," he said.

AP--surprised Russia did not make this same argument over the Ukraine--wonder what Ukrainian soldiers would say about Russian shooting and killing them inside their own country---se AP the "doublethink"?

Moscow supports the fact that the U.S., which turned a blind eye to actions of radical elements in Syria for a long time, expecting to use them to overthrow the legitimate government in Damascus, has finally realized the scope of the calamity that has engulfed virtually the entire Middle Eastern region, he said.

"In our view, what is worse is that Washington still cannot discard its own double standards in trying to substitute truly collective actions in combating international terrorism by such dubious maneuvers, which reveal quite a significant ideological and confrontational tint," Lukashevich said.

AP--and this is not what Russia is doing in the Ukraine with their idea of "New Russia"?

"By helping the Iraqi government oppose the Islamists, Barack Obama at the same time once again asks the U.S. Congress to allocate $500 million in support for the Syrian armed opposition, which, frankly speaking, differs little in general from the Islamic State radicals," he said.

Any actions against the terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant on Syrian territory should be taken only with the official authorities' consent, he said.

So AP--the support AP of mercenaries and Russian volunteers and the sending of tanks and artillery into the easern Ukraine is what ---can only be taken with official authorities consent--notice AP the "doublethink" in this sentence"

"It is the Syrian government's legitimate condition that any actions against the Islamic State on the republic's territory be taken with the Syrian government's consent and in compliance with international law, primarily the norms that stipulate sovereignty and territorial integrity," Lukashevich said.

AP take note of this "doublethink" statement--once you fully understand the technique it is really easy to follow Putin's thinking.

"Without these approaches, any attempts to deliver strikes will be taken only as a direct act of aggression," he said.

NOW AP this is a very interesting statement from one country to another country---SINCE when can Russia take the actions of another country defending itself against a known identified threat not using boots on the ground AS AN ACT of AGGRESSION?

So is Putin really saying---hands off Syria is a protector of Russia?

THEN why does Russia accuse the US of aggression on one hand and yet in the face of what the Ukraine would definitely perceive as open ended Russian aggression--Russia is silent.

"Doublethink, doublethink, doublethink"

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2014, 12:08 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2014, 01:28 PM

After Russia's FM declared that any US bombings in Syria of IS positions would be "aggression"--still not sure why they think they can declare war over attacks on Islamists when they themselves are killing an average of 10-15 Islamists a week in their own southern regions--but anyway.

So today the Russia FM continues their declarations---this time towards the entire EU:

From Interfax:

MFA Russia: EU leaders "need to give a clear answer to their citizens as to why they are putting them under the risk of confrontation.

"Risk of confrontation" means what?---surely it does not mean the actions Russia has taken in the Crimea and south eastern Ukraine are not certainly
"risks of confrontation".

More "doublethink" statements as part and parcel of their info war activities.

And the "confrontation" is forming---Russian troop withdrawals totally stopped today which meant in the first place it was all "show" in order to stop the proposed EU sanctions which did not work so back to the Russian Plan A "New Russia".

NSDC of Ukraine @NSDC_ua

Russian troops and military units stopped withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, RF army concentration reported in areas of Donetsk region

@Ukrainian_State Putin is actually using the same methods that Eltsine in Georgia (1st intervention) or in Transnistria

AmericanPride

09-12-2014, 02:46 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2014, 04:40 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2014, 05:02 PM

Outlaw -

Poroshenko said today that negotiations is the way out of the crisis for Ukraine. Is he also living in an "altered state of reality"? He also proposed decentralizing some of Ukraine's powers as a concession to the opposition - does that make him a Russian puppet? 'Come on' outlaw.

Or it means Russian troop levels are at the minimum level perceived necessary by Moscow to maintain its gains while the political process moves forward.

'Doublethink' has nothing to do with saying anything at all. The term is 'doublethink' not 'doublespeak'. And saying contradictory statements is a regular practice in politics in all places and all levels. So - how is Russian political speak uniquely objectionable?

AP this is a perfect example of your not understanding what you read and or write and that is not so good these days if you are a commenter.

The definition of "doublespeak" is as follows:

Doublespeak is language that deliberately disguises, distorts, or reverses the meaning of words. Doublespeak may take the form of euphemisms (e.g., "downsizing" for layoffs, "servicing the target" for bombing[1]), in which case it is primarily meant to make the truth sound more palatable. It may also refer to intentional ambiguity in language or to actual inversions of meaning (for example, naming a state of war "peace"). In such cases, doublespeak disguises the nature of the truth.

NOTICE the way you infer it's use and or my mis-use is exactly what the definition states.

BUT this is what I originally wrote and you absolutely paid no attention to it and if you had then you would have fully understood my use of the term "an altered state of reality" which is based on believing one's own propaganda.

"Doublethink"---is nothing more or less that stating two completely different thoughts, statements and or sentences AND (this is what you missed AP) ACTUALLY believing both thoughts, statement, sentences.T

That is exactly how in the RIA press release from the Russian FM concerning US aggression in Syria the FM is able to make two completely different concepts jell in a statement and fully believes both of them.

I could if you want take literally statement for statement from either Putin and or his FM and show you exactly how "doublethink" works.

Next time AP get at least the usage of terms correct. But then again you dismissed the Yale Professors article and 1984 as what "fiction"?

Where "doublethink" is not being seen nor heard is when a Russian neo Nazi or as they themselves call themselves "nationalists" or "ultra nationalists" or outright "fascists" cuts loose then--- it is actually hard core polemic built on hatred and racism.

AmericanPride

09-12-2014, 05:24 PM

Because AP it is done in the realm of an "altered state of reality" which is based on their own propaganda which they have internalized and believe--actually if your fully understood fascism that is one of the characteristics of a "fascist" state.

Actually that is not a characteristic of a fascist state. Some might argue that's a characteristic of all states. And some others would argue that's what said (the 'propaganda') is less important than what's done.

An "altered state of reality" actually means one is not capable of fully recognizing true realty

Now you're getting into ontology. I would strongly recommend against staking out an ontological position for political purposes. As evidenced by your posts, this often produces arguments that prove too much and that are logically inconsistent.

That is exactly how in the RIA press release from the Russian FM concerning US aggression in Syria the FM is able to make two completely different concepts jell in a statement and fully believes both of them.

You cannot possibly know what the Russian FM "fully believes". And given the highly politicized context, it would be very difficult for you to establish what the Russian FM actually, personally believes. What he believes in his personal capacity and what he states in his professional capacity are totally separate and independent things. That political officials frequently contradict themselves is not surprising and it's also not a relevant critique of Russian policies since - guess what - this is not a uniquely Russian behavior. This is again a case of you playing fast and loose with definitions.

But then again you dismissed the Yale Professors article and 1984 as what "fiction"?

When did I "dismiss" the article as "fiction"? Oh - that's right - you are making things up again. By the way - how about you read actual analysis of fascism rather than relying on your misinterpretations of fictional works that are critiques of communism?

And your opinion on the Ukrainian president stating that negotiations are the only way to resolve the conflict, and his willingness to make concessions to the separatists? Still waiting on that.

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2014, 06:17 PM

AP----

Here is an excellent example of "doublethink"---Putin claims in a public statement there are no Russian military troops inside the Ukraine and in the same statement states the Ukraine is a junta led government and is not democratic.

In the West we 1) laugh and say yes there are Russian troops in the Ukraine and 2) the Ukraine has a President via democratic elections.

Putin though in his mind is totally correct in both his statements--remember I mentioned that Russia places a great deal of "faith" in legality. So therefore Russia soldiers who have signed a "contract" and or "vacation paperwork" would not be an "illegal or false statement" in Putin's mind and in fact is not a lie or a deliberate misstatement.

To us we think in the end he is just using a "plausible deniability" ploy or we would argue once a soldier-even outside the uniform always a soldier.

Secondly, in his mind he does not see the Maidan as a "legal" representation of the opinion of the Ukrainian people who elected another President (who even Putin stated kind of overreached in his stealing from the people who elected him in the first place) and who was then "overthrown" and in Putin speak via a "putsch/junta" and he "sees" the active participation of his worst nightmare the Ukrainian neo right (Right Sector) who he equates with Nazi's fighting in the Maidan and supporting the "putschists" then that is proof enough for his mind. See again just how the Russians hang on the concept of "legality"?

We would on the other side state the former President was a thief and the "people spoke" and in their own Parliament they voted him out "legally" from a Ukrainian perspective.

So in the end Putin makes two completely different statements in public and we "think" he is another world--but in his own mind he fully believes both statements to be in fact totally true.

Now the kicker-many of Putin's statements and thoughts are in fact driven by propaganda and if I had the time and the efforts to do it one can find the supporting propaganda released via their TV or news agencies to match the statement.

That is the core problem with a "fascist" state that is and was built on over 70 years of propaganda--it becomes mainstream and believed to be always the truth.

AmericanPride

09-12-2014, 06:39 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2014, 06:51 PM

Outlaw -

In order for you to prove that Putin is exercising 'doublethink', you would have to establish that Putin personally simultaneously believes that (1) Russian soldiers are in Ukraine and (2) that Russian soldiers are not in Ukraine. It does not matter how 'soldier' is defined because that definition would have to be applicable in both cases for the statements to be contradictory. So - if we exclude 'soldiers' out of uniform for example, then you have to ask: does Putin simultaneously believe that Russian soldiers out of uniform are in Ukraine and that Russian soldiers out of uniform are not in Ukraine?

This is where your argument becomes non-sensical. The presence of the soldiers, however defined, in Ukraine is what gives Russia the leverage it requires in securing its gains in the political process. The Russians know this - it's probably why they sent the soldiers in the first place... That they're making deceptive comments about it is not an indicator of doublethink. It's an indicator that the Russians are political.

Does he in fact "in his own mind" fully believe both statements? Or are you assuming this based upon your specific interpretation(s) of Russian behavior?

That there is a relationship between a public official's comments and that public official's government's media organs comments is not a surprise nor an indicator of anything beyond an organized information strategy.

That's the problem with mass media in general.

So - once again - Ukrainian President. His pursuit of negotiations and compromise. Your thoughts? Go.

Here is again your core problem---here is the 75th shoe that dropped that Russian troops are physically inside the Ukraine BTR 80 with the Russian military blue peacekeepers emblem on the front of the armored vehicle.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/510456067634249728

See AP--this simple photo in fact proves exactly what you claim cannot be .

Putin in fact states there are no troops by his "legal" definition of what a Russian soldier is and when confronted with this photo he would state where is the Russia uniformed soldier?--you can spin all day long how you like it to be.

The President---ah the President--all he is trying to do is to slow down Putin to give time for the Ukrainian Army to reposition itself and he fully understands he has lost the south east as he knows NATO will not come in at all---the most he is hoping for is new anti air and anti tank weapons as a chance to freeze the Russian moves at the borders of "New Russia".

The UA has been fighting rather well but have been run over by the Russian heavy tanks and BM27/30s because they have no anti tank abilities- and really heavy artillery--there is some fear that Russia is positioning itself for airstrikes thus the need for anti air weapons as well.

In some aspects there is some talk about ditching the entire Donbas and allowing Russia to pick up the rebuilding cost but that would cut the western Ukraine from any Black Sea port thus the decision to stand and fight at Mariupol and Odessa which is where the UA has heavily repositioned itself towards.

But right now the President cannot sell the idea of ditching the Donbas to western Ukraine due to their heavy fighting and current loses---maybe at some point down the road but not now.

There is also serious concern that Russia is making their move in the coming few days as the EU Assoc is to be signed on 16 Sept and goes into effect on 1 Nov and Putin has to make his moves right before that if he is going to stop the Ukraine from going over to the EU which is the supposed reason at all for his actions in the Crimea and Ukraine.--meaning his perceived anger at EU/NATO moves on the Ukraine.

AmericanPride

09-12-2014, 06:55 PM

Here is again your core problem---here is the 75th shoe that dropped that Russian troops are physically inside the Ukraine BTR 80 with the Russian military blue peacekeepers emblem on the front of the armored vehicle.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/s...56067634249728

See AP--this simple photo in fact proves exactly what you claim cannot be .

Please quote me where I stated Russian soldiers are not in Ukraine.

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2014, 07:12 PM

Please quote me where I stated Russian soldiers are not in Ukraine.

AP--one of the better explanations of Russian goals in the Ukraine and fully explained by one that should know.

Print Friendly

Staunton, September 12 – Konstantin Zatulin, the director of the Russian Institute for CIS Countries, has bluntly described Moscow’s war aims in Ukraine as directed toward the establishment of complete control over Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policies and a privileged position in that country for the Russian language and the Moscow Patriarchate.

Speaking in Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea earlier this week, Zatulin said that Moscow’s policy toward Ukraine rests on three “main principles,” all of which taken together would reduce to almost nothing Ukraine’s ability to act in any way independently from what the Russian Federation wants.

First of all, the Moscow politician said, “Ukraine must become a federative state.” That is because “the eastern subjects” of such a federation “where people speak Russian and have their own relationship to history will always be a guarantee for Russia that Ukraine will not be able to adopt anti-Russian positions.”

Moreover, he continued, “the federalization of Ukraine will give Moscow a voice in the internal affairs [of Ukraine] via [its influence in these] eastern regions.”

Second, Zatulin continued, Russian must become a state language in Ukraine not only because of the presence of Russian speakers in that country but because “it is impossible to be an anti-Russian state with Russian as a state language.”

And third, he added, Moscow will not allow a split in the Russian Orthodox Church between Ukrainians and Russians because “the very fact that people go to one church plays an enormous role and will not allow for bloodletting.”

According to Zatulin, “the most immediate tasks” of the Russian authorities are not to allow the formation of any alliance in Ukraine directed against Moscow. Whether the West or Ukraine likes it or not, “Crimea is de facto in Russia,” and Moscow must ensure that “Ukraine not be consolidated on an anti-Russian basis.”

Among other things, the Moscow figure said, this means that Ukraine cannot become a member of the Western alliance. “Moscow is in a position to defend its interests, and ‘the expansion of NATO is impossible without Russia’s permission.” To any suggestions in that regard, “we say no.”

In other comments, Zatulin expressed regret that the Minsk accords did not give official recognition to the Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s republics,” but he suggested that this mistake could and would be corrected in the future.

AmericanPride

09-12-2014, 07:49 PM

Outlaw -

So - once again - no citations from you to support your mis-characterization of my comments?

You quote Zatulin's statements (where is the link?) like I've actually disagreed with the assessment that Russia's aim is to effectively neuter Ukraine. :rolleyes: How about you tell me how those claims you have just cited are compatable with your claim that Russia is going to annex eastern Ukraine. How can the Donbas be simultaneously annexed by Russia but also part of Ukraine? That's going to take some serious doublethink on your part!

Oh - and still waiting for your opinion on Poroshenko's position that negotiations is the way for Ukraine to resolve its current conflict.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 09:18 AM

Outlaw -

So - once again - no citations from you to support your mis-characterization of my comments?

By the way AP here is a good example of Russian "doublespeak"---why because if Russia is in theory not involved in eastern Ukraine then just how an they be part and parcel of the "peace process"--thus the Russian FM is this time basically lying and not using "doublethink" statements.

From RIA:
Lavrov says that sanctions on Russia derail the peace process.

You quote Zatulin's statements (where is the link?) like I've actually disagreed with the assessment that Russia's aim is to effectively neuter Ukraine. :rolleyes: How about you tell me how those claims you have just cited are compatable with your claim that Russia is going to annex eastern Ukraine. How can the Donbas be simultaneously annexed by Russia but also part of Ukraine? That's going to take some serious doublethink on your part!

Oh - and still waiting for your opinion on Poroshenko's position that negotiations is the way for Ukraine to resolve its current conflict.

AP---here you go again and it seems to never end:

I will cut and paste on the next comment a series of actual events that fully indicates Putin is moving ahead with plans to annex the entire "New Russia" then you can figure out what you do and or do not want to believe, think and or assume to your hearts content because you are spinning on a treadmill and have really not contributed anything.

Secondly I did answer you last comment--you just never take the time to read.

Suggestion---go back a reread.

Thirdly--mildly surprised you even challenge a Russian analyst who is more in tune to Putin that either of us are.

NOTICE one thing who actually signed the Minsk agreements by the way--is there an actual Ukrainian, mercenary or Russian signature on the document?---no actually only representatives--interesting is it not as it allows which has already occurred yesterday for the mercenaries to state we will change it all as we did not sign the agreement---it was a fig leaf by Russia in order to stop the sanctions which was clearly seen for what it was and the EU moved ahead as did the US.

From last yesterday--now does this give you the suggested thoughts that "negotiations" actually worked---no not really.

Update: Russian forces were not able to capture #Donetsk #Ukraine airport in largest assault to date. Reports of casualties on both sides

NOTE to AP---Russia FM actually stated this second convoy had been worked out in consultations with the Ukraine---never happened---and that is not "doublethink" that is outright lying---"doublespeak" if you like the definition I sent you.

The second #Russia "aid convoy" has penetetrated #Ukraine last night, without co-operation with #ICRC or Ukraine. http://en.ria.ru/world/20140913/192902650/Russian-Border-Guard-Customs-Clear-All-Trucks-Carrying.html …

AND AP---that now does not smack of "annexation"?

#BreakingFootage Three Russian BM-21 fire simultaneously from near western-used hotel in central #Donetsk city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TXZpo (Mod adds: no longer available)

AP--a key Russia demand that will be eliminated by the Ukrainian Rada in the coming days so then what is the next Russian move?

#Lavrov: Maintenance of #Ukraine’s nonaligned status crucial for Moscow
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/749380

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 09:43 AM

AP---yesterdays perfect example of capitulation of the EU in the face of the Russian aggression towards the Ukraine--if I were the Baltics and Poland I would be reassessing both the EU and NATO will.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxY9yYUCIAAM2ko.png:large

All the strategic goals that Putin set out in his Duma speech have been achieved and has the West contributed to his success?--most certainly.

Why because Germany wanted a "stick and carrot approach" tied to "rational" decisions by Putin---and not understanding either "doublethink" and or his "altered state of reality".

The initial sanctions should have been these last ones with the nuclear threat of cutting Russia off from SWIFT and then the carrot should have been then we will back them down as you back down--they went the other way and achieved in the end nothing for their efforts--is Putin's economy badly damaged yes and will it effect his population yes but he does not care.

Thus was a major pull back by the EU and condemned by many as a pull back and leaves many questioning EU thinking.

By the way AP--here is a good example of actual Russian "doublespeak" and not "doublethink"

From RIA:
Lavrov says that sanctions on Russia derail the peace process.

How exactly can Russia be a part of the peace process when it constantly states we are not supplying weapons, soldiers and mercenaries? Therefore basically--- now lying.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 10:02 AM

AP--so there was a "negotiated" ceasefire"?--this concerning the mercenary supported by Russian troops attack on the Ukrainian Army at the Donetsk Airport yesterday night---remember Russia is claiming a "ceasefire" was in fact negotiated right?

They probably #forgot, they signed a ceasefire?! ...

Actually they say, they attacked from 2 directions - #Oktyabrsky and #Spartacus - but I added confirmed #Grad fire from #Donetsk city as well

#Breaking "People's Republic of Donetsk" give first infos on tonight's attack on #Donetsk airport from 3 directions.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 10:15 AM

Notice AP how this smacks of actual Russian annexation of eastern Ukraine--if I remember rightly and you had not participated in the initial threads on the Crimea--did we see Russia "offer" the Ukrainian parliamentarian's the right to come to and observe the Crimea annexation voting?---no they did not but now what is this move smack of---actual control in the internal affairs of eastern Ukraine ie de facto annexation.

WHY--because they will still go even if the Ukraine says no--Russia is inherently locked into the "legality" thing they have in their mindset.

From RIA today:

MOSCOW, September 13 (RIA Novosti) - Members of the State Duma, the lower Russian parliamentary house, may participate in overseeing early parliamentary election in Ukraine if Kiev provides them the guarantees of security and freedom of speech, the speaker of the State Duma Sergei Naryshkin told the press Saturday.

AP--was the Ukraine offered similar options during the Crimea voting---no actually they did not if I recall my history correctly.

"Undoubtedly, we analyze the situation in Ukraine and the possibility of our participation in the upcoming parliamentary election. In order for this to become possible, we have to give an affirmative answer to a number of questions, including the questions on how [well] the security of our colleagues – the State Duma members – as well as the implementation of the observers" functions by them, safety of their transportation and freedom of their speech will be provided, since, after all, the observers are obliged to express their point of view on how free, democratic and adequate to the rules of international law the elections are," the official said.

See AP now this is pure Russian "doublespeak" ie outright lying--not "doublethink".

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 11:09 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 02:37 PM

Russian "definition of a ceasefire"

1. an all night artillery/rocket and a massive Russian SF ground attack on the Donetsk airport-repulsed
2. over 40 small arms, rocket and artillery attacks against UK/NG/Independent BN positions just inside the last six hours
3. large Russian military convoy with large numbers of BM27s crossing Russian border point close to Mariupol

And the list goes on---so is it a "ceasefire"? just as Russia stated before they crossed there are no Russian troops and weapons inside the Ukraine?

Did in fact the whole series of sanctions actually work ie Russian disengagement and no troops and weapons entering the Ukraine--not really.

For those that noticed the Ukrainian government forces on their own with virtually no help from the West had by 18 August successfully started to recover their eastern regions.

https://twitter.com/JerryPopowicz/status/510432904997273601/photo/1

Left map is from 18 Aug the right map from 12 Sept---in last than three weeks notice the massive territory shift.

Notice now just how much of the Ukraine is now not under their control since Russian troops crossed the border along with hundreds of tanks, APCs, and heavy rocket/artillery.

All the while Russia stating from the beginning stating this is just the "locals" protecting themselves--how many times in the last six months has the West head the refrain "it ain't us"?

Then another Russian Brigade enters the Ukraine when it was reported 70% left---strange math.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/510757461239025664

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 02:50 PM

We in the US talk about the loss of blood and treasure when we refer to Iraq and AFG--this link will take you to a Russian Mother's project who is trying to identify killed, wounded or missing Russian military personnel inside the Ukraine and it is massive and the list just keeps growing.

The Ukraine is now costing Putin his economy and a lot of Russian parents, wives and girl friends their loved ones.

AND his population in all the propaganda was totally not mentally prepared for this.

http://www.mamasoldata.org/

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 04:03 PM

AP--here you go--the true Russian strategy on the Ukraine--the idea of protecting ethnic Russian minorities rights takes a back seat/is in fact a smoke screen in front of the three items below.

AND AP--there is no negotiations that will overcome and or answer the three Russian demands without a total capitulation by the EU/NATO/US.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140913/192911691/Lavrov-West-Unwilling-to-Recognize-That-US-EU-Stand-Behind.html

Probably one of the best Russian statements on exactly what their core strategy is in the Ukraine and surprisingly directly stated. Surprised they released it in such detail via RIA--this tells me they are attempting to appeal to a few of the EU that were against the last round of sanctions and are trying to get their messaging out into the public domain in order to influence the coming debates especially if they make an military move to annex the south east Ukraine up to Odessa forming a land corridor to the Crimea.

If one really reads the statements the following jumps out as core Russian demands.

1. the Ukraine is "ours" not NATO's ie non aligned must remain a demand BECAUSE NATO "violated" the 1997 agreements we had with them--NOW this is key the 1997 document is a political statement not a formal submitted to all governments for approval document BUT because Russia places so much emphasis on "legality"--they treat it as a treaty to be honored.

Moving NATO infrastructure closer to Russian borders by pulling more countries into the alliance is unacceptable, Sergei Lavrov said.

Interesting in that only the Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldavia are not in NATO- the rest of the Warsaw Pact is inside NATO.

Confirmation that the 1997 agreement is not a treaty--is here:

Lavrov noted that Russia’s proposal to turn the commitments given within the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) not to strengthen the security of the alliance “at the expense of the security of others" into a legally binding agreement “was rejected multiple times”.

2. By constantly questioning NATO's intent and in proposing new security formats--the Russian aim is/was to pit internally each member against each other in order to weaken NATO to a non threat position and or to prove to say Poland and the Baltics that their best interests lie with Russia and not the US/NATO.

3. Russia wants to split the EU and US economically as well as politically.
Although the Unites States are trying to do their best to disrupt the economic relations between the EU and Russia, Russia is not losing the battle for influence in Europe, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday.

"There is a big battle going on," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Russian TVC channel. "The United States want to use the current situation in order to separate Europe from Russia economy-wise and bargain the most favorable conditions for themselves in the context of the ongoing negotiations on the creation of a transatlantic trade and investment partnership."

Here for me is the true Russia fear and it is macroeconomics pure and simple--it is TTIP as it would negate their vision of an European wide from Portugal to the Russian Far East free trade zone controlled/influenced by Russia which in effect would make Russia with it's oil/gas then one of the largest economic powers to go along with it's military/nuclear power thus effectively negating any US influence in Europe.

Again this implied desire to split the EU and the US is repeated several times by the Russian FM in the entire RIA article.

Answering the question on whether Russia is losing Europe to the United States, the Russian Foreign Minister said, "I think not."

"Now we are seeing the EU giving the subject a second thought. The fact that some of the EU countries, which are not the largest and do not have a leading role, begin to argue openly that the policy of sanctions is a deadlock, that it is counterproductive, says a lot," Lavrov said.

Here is in fact a tad differently worded the core Russian macroeconomics view of Europe that they ae striving to create, influence and control. They have discussed their "dream" of an free trade economic zone from Portugal to the Russian Far East in conversations with the EU but have been blocked by the EU--now it raises it's head again.

That is at the core of their dispute with the Ukrainian EU Association agreement---the millions they will loss on the free trade side if the Ukraine is in the EU since a majority of their products to the West cross through the Ukraine due to the European highway systems and that they cannot change.

Here though is the Russian view very well explained--free trade zone between the EU--the CIS and the EEC--the CIS and EEC are totally under Russian control and dominance.

Lavrov said that Russia is interested in a strategic partnership with the EU to grow in strength and develop.

"If you add up the potential of Russia and the European Union, then both will benefit from stronger positions in the world markets," the Russian foreign minister said. Russia is still prepared to take practical steps for the implementation of this course, the minister added.

The idea of creating a free trade zone between the EU and the Customs Union by 2020, and in future the Eurasian Economic Union, is still relevant.

"This idea is still alive, relevant and is of particular interest [to Russia], especially in the context of the current events in the economic relations between Ukraine and the EU, and Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States. That would be the answer to a lot of questions," Lavrov said.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 05:36 PM

Appears that just maybe the "ceasefire" is in fact over as this 23 hour shelling by the Russians and a ground attack by Russian SF on the Donetsk airport might in fact be the end of the "ceasefire".

Notice: There is a NONSTOP attack on #Donetsk airport since 23 hours .
This is no "ceasefire breach", but the de facto END of it.

Heavy gunfire heard now from #Donetsk airport

#BREAKINGNEWS Fighting broke out south west of #Donetsk city.
Probably Ukr. positions in #Marinka under attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvAEoy

More gunfire heard from #Donetsk steady slow firing thumps. Possibly the machine gun of an armoured vehicle?

Appears now that Ukrainian heavy armor is also on the move in the Luhansk region.
Footage Very heavy Ukrainian army convoy moving in #Luhansk oblast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e607Tj70tfo

Scheduled POW exchange called off today by mercenaries--key part of the Minsk "ceasefire" that is being dragged out by them.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 05:41 PM

Window on Eurasia: Kaliningraders’ Loyalty to Moscow 'Falling' as a Result of Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions

Paul Goble
Staunton, September 13 – Officials in Moscow who “constantly fear mythical Kaliningrad separatism” are as a result “closing their eyes to all the remaining difficulties” there, many the result of sanctions and counter-sanctions “as a result of which the loyalty of the local population to the center is falling,” according to Gleb Kuznetsov.

The political scientist made that argument at a meeting of Moscow, Warsaw and Kaliningrad experts organized this week by the Rosbalt news agency to discuss what participants said is a situation in which Russia’s “Kaliningrad oblast has turned out to be the main hostage of the conflict situation” (rosbalt.ru/kaliningrad/2014/09/12/1314609.html).

The exclave, the only Russian region which is “practically completely surrounded by countries which have joined the European Union and NATO, is more connected economically and in terms of transportation with those countries than with the rest of Russia and so is most negatively affected by the sanctions regime, participants said.

Ilya Shumanov, who is a leader of the Kaliningrad Regional Anti-Corruption Experts Community, said that his oblast “has turned out to be not prepared for the introduction of sanctions,” including both a falloff in visitors from Poland and increases in domestic prices for many basic goods.

He pointed out that in Kaliningrad since the introduction of sanctions and counter-sanctions, the price of fish has gone up 2.5 times and that many local factories processing Norwegian fish are now “at the brink of bankruptcy.” And he pointed to increasing “scandals” at the border involving the confiscation of food purchased by Kaliningraders in Poland.

Almost all of the problems Kaliningraders are facing arise from Moscow’s counter-sanctions rather than from the EU sanctions in the first place. “In Kaliningrad,” the experts said, “no one seriously is focusing attention on the introduction of new sanctions” from the West. Instead, they are concerned about what Moscow is doing.

Kaliningraders are interested in buying food in Poland where prices are significantly lower. “’Polish apples’” which are sold in Kaliningrad now as “’Rostov’ apples” cost “almost five times more than in Poland. And tomatoes and pickles are almost twice as expensive as in the neighboring country. Alcohol is also much more expensive in the exclave than in Poland.

The experts at the meeting said that along with these price changes has come a change in attitudes among Poles about Kaliningrad. Until recently, most Poles saw expansion of trade with that region as a good thing. Now, they view it as “a military-strategic object” Moscow may use to pressure them.

“Russians often say that Kaliningrad is a ‘besieged fortress,” but given the events in Ukraine, “Poles as well as Lithuanians and other Baltic republics feel themselves as in that situation,” something that Moscow’s military exercises in the Baltic have only exacerbated, reviving many of the stereotypes of the cold war.

There is not going to be a war in the region because both Russia and NATO have nuclear weapons, the experts said, but “the psychological playing on the threat of war has led to a situation in which scenarios which not long ago seemed unrealistic, as a result of their constant mention, are beginning to seem completely probable.”

“Despite the general worsening of the situation in [Kaliningrad],” the experts concluded, “no sharp changes are expected there in the immediate future. Instead, all the same problems which have long characterized Kaliningrad oblast will simply become more serious,” especially if officials there and in Moscow continue to ignore them.

Regional officials have a particular responsibility to address them, the participants said, but little can be expected if as now they “prefer to report that sanctions will help ‘local entrepreneurs.’” That, of course, is what Moscow wants to hear given Vladimir Putin’s statements, but it is simply not true.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 05:49 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2014, 07:48 PM

Seems in this Russian article the Russian military maybe hedging their bets and indicating that maybe with a big M MH17 might have been shot down by a BUK after all.

Maybe the knowledge that the Dutch have missile frags that the iron analysis will indicate that it is Russian made might be the gentle nudge to slowly admit they had lied before.

Strange development to say the least --just maybe Dutch forensics might have forced the hand of the Russians when sanctions could not.

Now Russian military says it was BUK
http://ria.ru/mh17/20140910/1023539819.html … - they were lying since 21Jul pic.twitter.com/3idfSwSa5J

Internet now picking up this RIA press release.

Russian press agency RIA Novosti quotes former Russian Air Force Commander "it could be BUK" #MH17
http://bit.ly/1nLfZeV @Brown_Moses

@GorseFires @PeterGrnlund1 Russia now understands SU25 testimony is weak. Jump s to BUK story as evidence is clear: fragments in bodies

mirhond

09-14-2014, 08:22 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 08:47 AM

http://iz.com.ua/zaporoje/52794-rezervisty-kotorye-otkazalis-otpravlyatsya-v-zonu-ato-s-bliznecov-do-zaporozhya-ne-doshli-vernulis-na-poligon.html

Riot in 55th artillery brigade in Zaporozhje - conscripts refuse to go to Donbass.

So comrade mirhond back again I see---will see your comment and raise the standards a step higher.

If you like I will post a link to the Rostov/Don Russian military mortuary where there is a Russian military dead body clearing house with currently 400 dead Russian military bodies that cannot be identified without DNA which is not available because no individual blood samples were taken before they went on "vacation".

Article was in Russian and stated that currently Russian military losses were 1,300 and rising.

Secondly--you did notice that the former Commander of the Russian Air Force in a RIA press released stated he thought the MH17 shot down was in fact with a Buk---remember MH17 mirhond?--you mentioned the looting and stealing from dead bodies was a unique Cossack burial ritual---remember mirhond?

So keep posting and I will keep showing you the other side of the story which you seem to not get

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 08:51 AM

http://iz.com.ua/zaporoje/52794-rezervisty-kotorye-otkazalis-otpravlyatsya-v-zonu-ato-s-bliznecov-do-zaporozhya-ne-doshli-vernulis-na-poligon.html

Riot in 55th artillery brigade in Zaporozhje - conscripts refuse to go to Donbass.

So comrade mirhond--your side is what "winning"--explain that to these
Russian family members, wives, and their mothers.

http://www.mamasoldata.org/

Saw those unique FSB military burials---in the middle of the night, no flowers and no compensation for being killed because they were "contract and or on vacation" right mirhond?

So comrade mirhond--that is what the "new action and professional Russian Army"---no proper military burial and no death insurance---sure saves Putin money--right comrade mirhond?

BY THE WAY--great Russian punk song-you might know it---oh forgot you work for the FSB these days and it is probably forbidden to listen to---so-enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heUU7s

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 09:08 AM

so comrade mirhond--that second "approved aid convoy to Luhansk went where? --you did see that the Russian government "had approval" from the Ukrainian government and the ICRC---both denied they had given approval---another Russian "doublespeak".

So comrade mirhond just where did the remaining 150 "white painted humanitarian trucks" actually go to?

#Breaking Only 70 of the 220 "aid trucks" reached #Luhansk city. The rest drove somewhere else.

The RedCross confirms, it has no clue.

so comrade mirhond---can you provide any clues?

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 09:11 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 09:43 AM

AP---this is a direct effect of "negotiations".

Political headache for Poroshenko: Russians are not exchanging POWs in a timely fashion & there is little #Ukraine can do during "ceasefire".

See AP--part and parcel of the Minsk negotiated agreements and it was understood in Minsk would be a timely POW exchange, first lists then transfer---it was anticipated that all 1300 Ukrainians would be exchanged NLT Sunday after the Friday signing.

Second thing that you have missed---both mercenary group representatives stated this weekend that the agreements did not apply to them because they did not sign them---presto the signatures were I fact released to the world and yes they did sign them---now they are trying to "redo" the agreements---again a great example of "negotiations at work right"?

Notice there is still no full exchange--DNR is dragging their feet and wonder why?---it allows for a Russian troop rotation and allowing for the undercover factory dismantling's to go on.

Then if you paid attention to the first Russian illegal "air convoy" two complete Ukrainian military factories in the Donbas were dismantled and taken to Russia using the returning "aid trucks".

Yesterdays' "again illegal aid convoy" only 70 trucks actually seemed to carry "aid" the other 150 trucks simply "disappeared to somewhere--but no one knows exactly where ---confirmed by ICRC. Several of the trucks were in fact refrigerated allowing for the undercover recovery of dead Russian bodies as well.

Now when the entire eastern Ukraine events started there was a series of RIA/Interfax releases that stated if the Russian military was cutoff from the Ukrainain defense industry it would take between 5 to 7 years to rebuild that capacity.

What many do not realize is that key parts of the Putin military modernization plan called 2020 would require the defense production from the Donbas.

Ever think that Russia is in fact under the cover of "aid trucks" dismantling factories secured by the alleged discriminated ethnic Russia mercenaries?

And that is a specific example of poor "negotiations" which should have never been necessary of tough economic sanctions had been applied immediately after Crimea--tough as now they are finally.

The western leadership "wasted" over four months of valuable time getting to the current sanctions and where is now the Russian army and where are the Ukrainian dismantled defense factories going?

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 10:07 AM

And sanctions do not work?

Siluanov's comments imply that any financial assistance to Rosneft & Novatek is likely to be a fraction of the amount requested by Rosneft

Rosneft must pay back at the end of 2014 almost 46B in credit lines and long term bank loans/bonds.

Russian companies have been playing the great Ponzi scheme of where is the pea by taking large western bank loans on virtually on interest charges in order to hold onto their own capital--normal for businesses, but now for some reason those billions they are suppose to have in their bank accounts seem to not be there---wonder what personal bank account in the UK or Switzerland they are sitting in?

Siluanov: Russia is ready to support sanctions-hit energy companies #Rosneft & #Novatek from its National Wealth Fund http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/13/russia-wealthfund-rosneft-idUSL5N0RE0B420140913 …

There is talk of over 70% of the National Wealth Fund being given to Rosneft--so much for future Russian pension raises.

Siliuanov: "It's been decided so far not to unseal the remaining 40% [of NWF]. This is our strategic reserve" http://rbth.com/news/2014/09/13/rosneft_novatek_may_receive_support_from_national_ welfare_fund_in_2014_-_39756.html …

Dayuhan

09-14-2014, 10:51 AM

AP--here you go--the true Russian strategy on the Ukraine--the idea of protecting ethnic Russian minorities rights takes a back seat/is in fact a smoke screen in front of the three items below.

These are goals, not a strategy. The strategy is the means that are supposed to get you the goals, and if these are the goals, the Russians are not exactly doing well on the strategy side.

1. the Ukraine is "ours" not NATO's ie non aligned must remain a demand BECAUSE NATO "violated" the 1997 agreements we had with them--NOW this is key the 1997 document is a political statement not a formal submitted to all governments for approval document BUT because Russia places so much emphasis on "legality"--they treat it as a treaty to be honored.

This goes down in the epic fail category. The Ukraine has lost some territory and may lose more, but whatever is left is irretrievably outside the Russian orbit and is certain to do all it can to get into NATO, likely with a positive reception. Even if the Ukraine loses the southeast, NATO is still likely to come out on the doorstep, with Belarus the only Russian "ally" (with allies like Belarus enemies are superfluous) left in the west. Even Kazakhstan will be watching with concern and probably holding some quiet discussions with the superpower on the other side.

2. By constantly questioning NATO's intent and in proposing new security formats--the Russian aim is/was to pit internally each member against each other in order to weaken NATO to a non threat position and or to prove to say Poland and the Baltics that their best interests lie with Russia and not the US/NATO.

Again, epic fail. All of the questions raised about intent have been questions about Russia's intent, nott hat of the US. Poland and the Baltics are more nervous about Russia than ever, and consequently more attached to NATO.

3. Russia wants to split the EU and US economically as well as politically.
Although the Unites States are trying to do their best to disrupt the economic relations between the EU and Russia, Russia is not losing the battle for influence in Europe, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday.

"There is a big battle going on," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Russian TVC channel. "The United States want to use the current situation in order to separate Europe from Russia economy-wise and bargain the most favorable conditions for themselves in the context of the ongoing negotiations on the creation of a transatlantic trade and investment partnership."

Here for me is the true Russia fear and it is macroeconomics pure and simple--it is TTIP as it would negate their vision of an European wide from Portugal to the Russian Far East free trade zone controlled/influenced by Russia which in effect would make Russia with it's oil/gas then one of the largest economic powers to go along with it's military/nuclear power thus effectively negating any US influence in Europe.

Again this implied desire to split the EU and the US is repeated several times by the Russian FM in the entire RIA article.

Answering the question on whether Russia is losing Europe to the United States, the Russian Foreign Minister said, "I think not."

"Now we are seeing the EU giving the subject a second thought. The fact that some of the EU countries, which are not the largest and do not have a leading role, begin to argue openly that the policy of sanctions is a deadlock, that it is counterproductive, says a lot," Lavrov said.

Here is in fact a tad differently worded the core Russian macroeconomics view of Europe that they ae striving to create, influence and control. They have discussed their "dream" of an free trade economic zone from Portugal to the Russian Far East in conversations with the EU but have been blocked by the EU--now it raises it's head again.

Probably the most epic fail of all. his dream was never much more than a fantasy to start with, but it is more remote now than ever before. Short of physical conquest, Russia has approximately zero chance of bringing Europe into a Russian dominated bloc. That doesn't mean they won't do business with Europe, but they won't be running the show.

"This idea is still alive, relevant and is of particular interest [to Russia], especially in the context of the current events in the economic relations between Ukraine and the EU, and Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States. That would be the answer to a lot of questions," Lavrov said.[/B]

Maybe that's Russia's answer to a lot of questions, but do you see anyone jumping on the bandwagon?

The measure of a strategy's success or failure lies in the accomplishment or non-accomplishment of the goals. If these are the goals, Russia ain't winning.

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 01:55 PM

Having been one of the few Americans to have trained the Russian 15th Peacekeeping Brigade in two USAREUR peacekeeping exercise in 2012 and 2013 and the one who has converted the US operations processes into joint US/Russian Brigade staff processes---I have been awaiting the arrival of the 15th into the Ukraine as a clear sign of Putin's intentions

The 15th is now for all intents and purposes functioning in the Ukraine and for Russia to continue "denying" must slowly be recognized either Putin is living in an "altered state of reality" or he is simply out right lying.

Russian social media site confirms the 15th in the Luhansk region.

http://t.co/9VeBG87dzT

There has been some chatter on the net about this Russian military Ukraine plan being built and in place about 1-2 years ago and it was just sitting there ready to go.

Short story--out of the blue in late 2012 the Russian military requested a "peacekeeping joint exercise"--we pulled it together in under 90 days and then exercised jointly--one question I kept asking was Why the sudden Russian interest in peacekeeping since the last joint exercise was fives years previous ---many jumped at the opportunity as the then General of USAREUR had been angling for an invite before he retired and he finally got it in 2013. The Russians were extremely interested in how we the US pulls together logistics--now we see the reasoning behind their interest.

The core question was never answered---the why now and why urgency behind the two exercises as often expressed by the Russians themselves---the 15th Staff was joined by COLs/LTCs from their Russian military academy and their MoD. Also one of their Mech BN commanders would come.

We trained them well---maybe in the future the US Army should answer the Why before they engage and commit simply because they wanted invitations to Moscow.

Now I understand their urgency.

This might explain the heavy shelling attacks ongoing in Donetsk simply because a number of the BN commanders in the 15th simply wanted to shot and kill all resisting civilians during the exercises---this was the hardest part to get through their heads---one must protect civilians at all costs.

Right now it seems the FSB cannot get their soldiers to get into the opsec thing on social media.

This is how they camouflaged the vehicles--simply painted white over the Russian MC emblems.
https://t.co/UyqAZK8WFo

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 04:35 PM

Heavy BM21/27 shelling by Russian troops on the Donetsk airport and Putins' FM complimented Putin for his "peace plan and ceasefire" successes yesterday via RIA.

So, #Ukraine forces in #Donetsk Airport have been pounded by #Russia rocket artillery 4 last 6 hrs. Well, ceasefire generally holds.

The world really has to ask itself---just what was "achieved" by "negotiation" other than a really slowed down POW exchange and a complete rotation of Russian troops who had been pounded on their entry into the Ukraine.

#BREAKINGNEWS #DONETSK'S NORTHERN #OCTYABRSKIY DISTRICT BURNING AFTER MULTIPLE RUSSIAN #GRAD MISSILE HITS

pic.twitter.com/Zz3Jg8Ah37

#BREAKING This is the Putilov market in #Donetsk's #Putilovka district.
Hit by Russian #Grad missiles and burning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ApI2WrQF0U

The district is just south east of #Donetsk airport. pic.twitter.com/uHyC8w1So1

Seems like Russian rocket troops are overshooting the airport--there are reported to be literally unbroken GRAD fire now directed at the airport---this is exactly what Russian troops did in Chechnya when they leveled cities and towns.

Footage summary #map:
Where Russians fire from and where impacts are confirmed.
Talking of "accuracy"...
pic.twitter.com/4clHtQNXTc

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 06:58 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2014, 08:27 PM

AP---and there is no "altered state of reality" in Moscow?

Headline in the pro-Kremlin "Komsomolskaya Pravda": "Boeing downed in Ukraine (#MH17) is the same that disappeared in March (#MH370)"

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2014, 06:58 AM

This is more insight into what is driving Putin--and the author might in fact be correct---Putin's recent comments and actions do indicate "an altered state of both reality and actions" so therefore there are other drivers at work than what we assuming.

It appears sometimes from his comments that he is in fact on a "crusade".

Author is a Baltic resident who has a better perspective than say an American or a German.

http://en.delfi.lt/opinion/opinion-where-putin-will-be-stopped.d?id=65819514#ixzz3DMD4nIP0

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2014, 11:07 AM

Sometimes here at SWJ we often forget what Putin statements really are---this is taken from his comments to the press on 17 April 2014--check how he defines "New Russia" and then check where the latest reports are from Russian troop locations--seems to be an exact match.

He used the argument that the Crimea was given away by a former Communist leader to the Ukraine thus the need to "bring it back to Russia"---the regions he mentions in this comment were also given to the Ukraine in the early 1920s by the then soviet Communist leaders as well---which means Stalin.

Seems Putin is attempting to rebalance historical decisions made by former Soviet Communist leaders even including Stalin.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxj_bVNIQAAvn4X.png:large

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2014, 02:11 PM

Even more Russian SF/GRU units now inside the eastern Ukraine:

Russian Southern MD 22nd Independent Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (obrSpN) of GRU ID'd in Ukraine.

http://burkonews.info/22nd-independent-brigade-currently-operating-ukraine/

pic.twitter.com/pdZQP6LpGc

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2014, 05:06 PM

There has been some massive critique of the OSCE ie greatly influenced if not under the control of Russia--one will notice that every time Russia gets in a bind it wants the OSCE involved ie as monitors to prove no one was crossing their border to the Ukraine.

Yesterday as an example---over 20 hours of constant BM21/27 rocket fire and six hours of artillery fire in Donetsk and this is the SMM report for the day.

See any problems with the OSCE monitors if this is all they produce?

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/511535072760311809/photo/1

Then this came over the net today as well concerning the SMM.

Dear @OSCE_SMM,
get out of the streets and find a computer.
Switch on:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-fBgVXH7Bo …
I hear 5 shells in 30 seconds.
Not in 1 day.

Then the constant Russia charges against the Ukraine in the OSCE especially in one then compares the SMM reporting.

From Interfax today:

18:37 OSCE gets evidence Kyiv is guilty of violating ceasefire - Russia's OSCE ambassador

This is counter to the constant reporting over the weekend from on the ground journalists and the Ukrainian reports of over 40 attacks on their troops via rockets and artillery.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2014, 05:24 PM

Seems that "former vacationing Russian airborne troops" were the ones leading the fighting in the Luhansk region.

Really seems that the FSB has lost control over the opsec side.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/former-russian-paratroopers-lead-combat-rebel-held-east-143005726.html#uThdkNE

Interesting portion of the article especially the last sentence concerning Putin:

But a Reuters reporter travelling from Donetsk to Luhansk on a rebel-controlled road on Sunday went through 14 roadblocks, mainly manned by men in the Russian paratroopers' trademark blue berets and undershirts with horizontal blue and white stripes.

"There are no Russian troops here; Russian citizens take part, this is not banned by law," Yakut says. "But there were no Russian troops here, there aren't any and there won't be until the Russian president makes any such decision."

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2014, 05:49 PM

Seems Putin has underestimated the desires of the various ultra nationalist Russian mercenary groups who went into the Ukraine to defend "ethnic Russians"--now even Russia does not control them.

The question is now--- who is wagging the tail of the dog? Or simply a case of the Revolution eating it's children.

Yesterday a large number of BM21 rocket fire attacks into the Donetsk airport came from this group below.

#Stakhanov in Luhansk announced its withdrawal from the Lugansk People's Republic and the creation of a "Cossacks Republic".

Now await the following announcements:

The "Caucasian Emirate of Donbas" and "The People's Republic of Russian Troops on Vacation" or "The Defense Contractor Republic".

Who said Putin does not have humor ---definitely not in his new military doctrine "New Generation Warfare".

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2014, 06:15 PM

#Breedlove: Russia exerts great pressure along coastline (#Mariupol) so crucial to Ukraine's fiscal ability to move forwards.

#BREAKING UKRAINE MOVES MULTIPLE SA-8 GECKO IN ITS SOUTH WEST.
Expecting big things to come..
http://youtu.be/LKh2dg-Bz-o

pic.twitter.com/i2bWaIKrTV

#Breedlove: Russia's "hybrid war" strategy sees "little green men" in Crimea then E Ukraine, now signs in Moldova/Transnistria.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2014, 10:29 AM

AP--here is another distinct difference between our views---I see strategy then I see the potential for at least five different orders of effects if the strategy is not though though---thoroughly thought through.

Putin in his drive to establish his neo imperialism via the Putin Doctrine relied to deeply on his experiences with the western response to both Georgia and Moldavia although I will argue that yes Bush did in fact signal a clear line in the sand that did hold Putin back.

But in the end it was basically business as usual and back to work and the overall acceptance of Putin's two enclave moves. What the west forgot and did not know was the fact that Putin quietly was testing his new doctrine---he just never used the term in public before the Duma speech.

NOW here is the serious problem for Putin since he never factored in the 3rd, 4th, or ever 5th order of effects on a strategy if not thought through to the bitter end.

We call in in politics or in international relations---"unintended consequences".

1. He did not see the massive and painful economic sanctions coming
2. if he did then he basically overestimated his economies' ability to withstand them
3. he started believing his own ego/image/propaganda
4.he did not factor in just how the Russian ultra nationalists ie neo Nazi organizations would react inside the Ukraine once they held a particular piece of ground for their "own".

Putin now has a problem---either "allow this" to continue as part and parcel of his "frozen state principle" or use the Russian Army to crack down on it thus causing potential internal Russian security problems by the same group inside this time Russia and not the Ukraine.

This is now his "unintended consequence" of the Putin doctrine using UW in his political war with the Ukraine.

#BREAKINGVIDEO THE #COSSACK_NATIONAL_GUARD SHELLING UKRAINIAN POSITIONS IN #DEBALTSEVE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Kp6pH2dN8 … pic.twitter.com/5sAqrOOAAc

Notice 1) the new name---"Cossack National Guard" and 2) notice the new logo in the video--videos used for propaganda using a key signature logo have meanings for the back home crowd--AND they were the mercenaries on the MH17 ground that was behind the looting and pillaging of the dead bodies and their luggage that mirhond here claimed was due to their unique Christian "burial beliefs". Then they started actually using the stolen credit cards and smart phones--and that is what "unique"?

By the way---they were the key group behind the massive BM21 rocket fire into the Donetsk airport this weekend that hit civilian centers--which then was blamed on the UA.

Challenge to you---find for me in the web and or on YouTube Russian released and or Ukrainian released video of Ukrainian troops firing rockets or artillery on civilian targets and or firing at all during the ceasefire?

Then I have roughly 26 videos showing mercenary or Russian troops firing at civilian targets sine the signed "ceasefire".

AND who gets Blamed---the Ukrainians naturally by the Russian press and government.

So this was the "negotiated results" of what a "ceasefire"?

I would no longer call it a "ceasefire" but rather "a fire at will in place agreement".

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2014, 03:36 PM

AP--you write about what was and or was not "negotiated" as if something positive was basically achieved in Minsk.

Here is the reality on the ground---so is in fact the south east Ukraine annexed or not.

Col.Lysenko @NSDC_ua spox: situation remains critical in #Donetsk

Col.Lysenko@NSDC_ua spox: terrorists shell at residential areas in #Donetsk in the guise of National Guard. 3 people killed
NOTE: this is has been a standard TTP for the mercenaries for over five months now but somehow missed by the western media.

#Latvian TV program claims #Russian embassy in #Riga recruits mercenaries 4 #Donbass separatists
http://en.delfi.lt/nordic-baltic/latvian-tv-programme-claims-russian-embassy-in-riga-recruits-mercenaries-for-donbass-separatists.d?id=65860116#ixzz3DUKnCKy6 …

Ukraine claims rebels are trying to push army back from #Donetsk, Avdiivka, Debaltseve and Shchastia with shelling.
pic.twitter.com/Ti7uCwD0KW

Here is what Russian TV today depicted for their audience as what is being in Russia referred to as the "New Russian" territories.

Check the map and let me know what the underlying Russian "assumption" of the Minsk negotiations was?

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/511857697067917312

Again AP even in the face of signed "negotiated" agreements by the "New Russia" reps--they continue to refuse to accept them ---so again what was achieved other than a "ceasefire" with over 80 shelling attacks and 114 Ukrainian military personnel killed and or wounded just in the last ten days?

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2014, 10:33 PM

Ukraine "negotiates" the ceasefire, attempts to hold to the ceasefire, then passes as part of that agreement new eastern laws and then this today:

#BREAKINGNEWS CHECHEN-RUSSIAN INVASION FORCES PUSHED BACK UKR. TROOPS IN #YASINOVATAYA WITH HEAVY TANK AND GRAD FIRE.

pic.twitter.com/iCtdQZtWLl

So what was achieved through "negotiations" if the fighting is still ongoing especially using Russian troops.

Or is it the Russian attempt to fully round out the "New Russia" that will eventually slide into annexation because the separatists are taking every opportunity to ignore what they signed and the Ukraine has no leverage to assure compliance.

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2014, 08:22 AM

Am changing my previous use of the term "altered state of reality" to a more fitting term "cognitive dissonance".

In this press release by the Donetsk mercenaries--it is clear to be seen.

Yes I can shell your positions with BM21s for hours over the last four days and blame you for "shelling" civilians---and I will continue to do that as I wish BUT whoa be it if you reinforce your positions especially since the "New Russia" has been declared you are no longer on Ukrainian soil.

#BreakingNews The Russian puppet DPR regime: "24 Ukrainian tanks broke through to #Donetsk #airport."

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2014, 12:36 PM

AP--yesterday you did not accept my comments on what is behind the Ukrainian "negotiation tactics" where I mentioned the heavy fighting was done by a rag tag UA group of units and they were doing quite well until the Russian Army came into the Ukraine.

A compliment by the Donetsk mercenary about their "fighting abilities".

Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7
The Ukrainian army and its fighting qualities gets a rare shout out from, of all people, Strelkov-Girkin: (NOTE: the Russian leader initially of the DPR)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yi6b8Jqr86o&feature=youtu.be …

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2014, 02:34 PM

Senior Russian DPR leader next to Girkin who was pulled out by Russia arrested today by SBU in the Donbas region.

Senior leader from Russia (ally of Igor "Strelkov") of separatists captured by SBU

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/09/17/7038032/ …

Even the OSCE monitoring patrols are getting shelled and there are absolutely no Ukrainian forces in the area of the shelling--will be nice to see their filed reports when that monitoring team gets back.

OSCE monitors come under fire at #MH17 crash site, #Ukraine
http://www.mid-day.com/articles/osce-monitors-come-under-fire-at-mh17-crash-site/15606181 …
pic.twitter.com/hLzxGbLS1a

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2014, 04:12 PM

Seems that the Russian social media is negating on a daily basis exactly what the Russian Army stated today concerning Russian troops inside the Ukraine either on "vacation", under "contract", or physically assigned there with their units and under no markings.

The Russian Army has an unusual definition of just what "frivolous and unprofessional is"--unprofessional is getting you soldiers killed under "contract" and or "vacation" then giving them a midnight unmarked burial and not paying the Russian death compensation because they did not get killed in a "war"---then having the FSB remove there Russian Facebook entries.

That is frivolous and unprofessional if one asks me--a truly "altered state of reality".

From RIA today:

Claims by NATO's supreme allied commander Europe over presence of Russian battalions in Ukraine are frivolous, unprofessional - Russian Army

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2014, 04:28 PM

AP---you often pushed back on the "altered state of reality, or irrational vs rational Russian behavior" and you often repeated here the way forward is via negotiations vs use of force and on and on. And sanctions will not work in ending eastern Ukraine or the Crimea.

Currently we have the following Russian actions in place since the Crimea:

1. Russia negates the Budapest Memorandum
2. Russia violates the Helsinki Accords
3. Russia acts against the Russia/NATO Basic Agreements
4. Russia violate the INF on nuclear cruise missiles
5. Russian announces the "Putin Doctrine"
6. Russia openly violates signed disarmament/destruction OSCE agreements and in fact ships the tanks destined for destruction into the Ukraine
7. Russia annexes via military power the Crimea
8. Putin's threatens to be in Kiev in two weeks with his army
9. Russia send into the Eastern Ukraine over 15,000 troops, tanks and heavy artillery and heavy BM MRLs
10. Putin allows nuclear tactical exercises against Poland and the Baltics
11. Countless nuclear threats against NATO and the US muttered by countless Duma and FM officials
12. Russian long range bombers simulated nuclear cruise missile launches against the northern US-twice now
13. Russian "allows" tactical nuclear capable artillery units to move into the eastern Ukraine
14. Russia stations TU33 nuclear capable bombers in the Crimea---EXACTLY 200KMs from NATO territory

AND the list goes on and on--so it begs the question--WHO is really threatening WHOM?

Then this reported in conversations between Putin and the Ukrainian President:

Putin: Russian Troops could be in Vilnius, Warsaw, and Bucharest in Two Days http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/putin-russian-troops-could-be-in-vilnius-or-warsaw-in-two-days …
pic.twitter.com/tuYSZgqjBU

So again AP--"rational and or irrational" Russian actions/behaviors?

And AP---again "negotiations" are to achieve exactly what again?

And again AP---you initially claimed this was all about "spheres of influence and buffers"--still think that?

mirhond

09-18-2014, 04:30 PM

Yep - and I have stated from the start that the West and Ukraine were severely unprepared for Russia's campaign. When it's recognized that one is in a losing position and can't catch up without significant losses, it's better to make a quick end of it and cut your losses. Every loss in pursuit of defeat is a waste.

But it's interesting now that after your many months of your crusade to demonize Russia, you are willing to write off eastern Ukraine and Crimea and hand it over to them in the name of "realpolitik". Had the pro-West faction in Ukraine's government negotiated an end to Ukraine's internal turmoil in say November, March, or April, Ukraine would not be in this position in the first place.

No, no, no! West must fight Russia back to the last Ukrainian! :D

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2014, 05:24 PM

No, no, no! West must fight Russia back to the last Ukrainian! :D

let us see comrade mirhond exactly just how good your poor Russian is actually?

if your Russian is as good as you claim but it is really not then you can check this Russian mother's web site and explain to the mothers, wives and children--JUST how they fathers, and son's "DIED" while on vacation and or under contract in the Ukraine.

BUT WAIT--they do not know anything about them BECAUSE the great Russian Army hides them on "vacation"?

http://www.mamasoldata.org/

so comrade read it and weep for the countless killed Russian soldiers who were buried in unmarked graves or in the middle of the night or not buried at all while their bodies lay somewhere in the Ukraine not recovered-AND never received compensation because they were not in a "war" where they?

what a great Russian military tradition--getting killed and buried in an unmarked grave somewhere on "vacation"--wow

--and you do not care if Russians are getting killed or wounded for who--Putin the greatest fascist of all times inside Russia-- the so-called motherland of Lenin and Communism---come on comrade mirhond you falling down on your abilities here

not serving makes you then someone who "dodged" Russian military service does it not comrade?--what did you do-- pay a typical bribe to not serve?

comrade mirhond--3500 killed Russian "vacationers and contractors" AND THAT IS A VICTORY?--come on mirond get real

by the way is Putin not violating Russian law by not getting Duma approval to send Russian "vacationers" into the Ukraine?

http://www.mamasoldata.org/

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2014, 05:54 PM

hey comrade mirhond--just how are those sanctions working for you--heard the latest Moscow joke?

"What is the new Russian 1 Euro?"

Answer---the Russian 50 Rubel bill---funny right mirhond?

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2014, 05:55 PM

Critical turn of events in the Ukraine if proven true--the following has not be verified.

Breaking ? RT @ISNJH: #Russian Il76 did airborne drop over Donestk territory forces.

Appears to in fact be correct--if so a major Russian escalation not de-escalation that Putin keeps talking about.

BREAKING UPDATE The #Russian airborne drop is made to deploy forces to seize #Donetsk airport https://www.facebook.com/burkonews/posts/395300277284518 …

BREAKING Just hours ago #Russian air force Il76 dropped airborne forces in #Donetsk region w support of 2 fighter jets. Flew back to #Russia

Currently report of Russian aircraft over Donestk should be viewed as strictly #rumint until further confirmation.

Russian troops continue nonstop violation of Ukrainian ceasefire.
Stakhanov
http://youtu.be/gLput4YyD6c pic.twitter.com/L6blAE2Bd7

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2014, 06:28 PM

Are Russian mercenaries and Russian troops preparing for a full scale offensive after the "ceasefire" is declared null and void---notice no further POW exchanges.

Russian troops need to fully build out the "New Russia" and push the UA out of that "New Russia".

Operational data from Information Resistance from 17/9:

In the combat zone in the Donbas, activity has been observed of the Russian-terrorist troops ignoring the so-called “ceasefire.” The adoption on September 16th, by the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament], of the laws of the special order of self-government in certain areas of Donbas, and amnesty, currently have had no affect on a change in the intensity of the fighting.

The most difficult situation persists in the areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Stanytsia Luhansk, Shchastya, Popasna, Verkhnya [Upper] Krynka, Nyzhnya [Lower] Krynka, Zhdanivka.

Under terrorist attacks, the transformer substation in Shchastya was hit and electricity is now out.

In the district of the bombarded airport in Donetsk a marked accumulation of units of the regular army of the Russian Federation [RF] has been observed. Near this locality the enemy creates a layered air defense system.

Simultaneously, we recorded the transfer of several pieces of military aviation, without Russian Air Force markings, to border airfields on the territory of the Russian Federation. According to our data, these machines are being prepared for transportation to Donetsk in the form of “Air Novorossiya” [Air New Russia] in the event of the displacement of Ukrainian units from the territory of the airport.

In Luhansk Oblast [region] LNR [Luhansk People's Republic] insurgents and RF units are preparing to resume active operations and to continue fighting. Over the last 2-3 days they conducted a series of rearrangements and focused some offensive combat groups with armored vehicles in the north-eastern part of the ATO and north of Luhansk; previously from Russia several convoys of ammunition and fuel were delivered. In the district of Luhansk mobile Russian radar is deployed, and gangs actively saturate air defenses.

In many ways, with the help of Russian specialists in the Donbas, insurgents create not only a radar field controlled by them, but also a layered air defense system.

At the same time during the past few days the passage of columns of military equipment from the territory of the Russian Federation into the Donbas has not been recorded.

In the coastal areas (Novoazovsk-Mariupol) there is a relative lull. However, there is an active transfer of Russian troops to the north of Mariupol.

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2014, 06:59 PM

No, no, no! West must fight Russia back to the last Ukrainian! :D

mirhond---care to comment?

On August 17, Kuzmin's family was informed by a military commissar that he had been killed by a Ukrainian shell landing on Russian territory. Oksana said that the commissar himself admitted that he did not believe this story.

After interviewing Oksana, the BBC team set off towards Astrakhan. On leaving her village, they were stopped by traffic police, who checked their boot and IDs.

It was in Astrakhan that they were attacked and later, while at the police station, stripped of their data.

Rosenberg writes:
Fortunately we had uploaded the interview to London earlier in the day.

But why would anyone set out to destroy our material and to silence the sister of a Russian soldier?

Oksana is no terrorist, no political opponent of the Russian government.

All she wants to know is the truth about Konstantin's death - where exactly he died and how - and ensure that the army does not turn its back on her dead brother.

"He loved Russia, he was so patriotic," Oksana tells me.

"I just don't understand how they can forget a soldier like him. He was killed, he was buried and he was forgotten."

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2014, 08:29 PM

Another GRU team inside the Ukraine: In Russian from social media

Russian GRU special Unit from Prokhladnyy/Kabardino-Balkaria is in Donetsk

https://m.facebook.com/bochkala/posts/803844843001240 …

pic.twitter.com/2GNUmBjo4O

New GRU aspect:

Yes, honey trap ! She is also a GRU officer, and a Nazi.
pic.twitter.com/SFA6aiB618

Firn

09-18-2014, 10:04 PM

http://www.mamasoldata.org/

so comrade read it and weep for the countless killed Russian soldiers who were buried in unmarked graves or in the middle of the night or not buried at all while their bodies lay somewhere in the Ukraine not recovered-AND never received compensation because they were not in a "war" where they?

There certainly seems to be a rather high percentage of those Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine are from the VDV which is hardly a surprise considering it's status and use in recent conflicts. It is quite likely that of those and outsized number served in the rapid reaction battallions.

The 100+ pages of Russia's New Army (http://www.cast.ru/files/book/NewArmy_sm.pdf) are now four years old but offers some basic insight :

In order to improve the VDV divisions’ and the single VDV brigade’s rapid reaction capability, each has been given a rapid reaction battalion.

Up to 70 per cent of these battalions’ servicemen are professional soldiers many of them have real combat experience. The VDV Command is clearly aware of the shortcomings of the current system, whereby the rest of the units are manned predominantly by conscripts. But concentrating most of the available professional soldiers in the rapid reaction battalions results in a clear disparity in the standards of combat training within the VDV divisions and brigades.

All in all it seems that the Russian invasion and fighting has mostly been executed by the steel tip of a spear with a rather weak wooden shaft against an army which has been neglected and stripped for over two decades.

kaur

09-19-2014, 07:32 AM

Hundreds of Russian volunteers are supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, offering them vital experience in battle tactics and training to attack Ukrainian forces, a top rebel leader said.
Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, said there were so many Russians among the rebels that they formed their own battalions.
But he denied they had been sent by Moscow, as Western countries suggest, saying they were simply volunteers who had earlier served in various branches of the Russian armed forces.
"I think there aren't just hundreds [from Russia], there are more. It's even possible to talk of the formation of separate volunteer battalions," he told Reuters in an interview.
"They fight better than us, but one warrior cannot conquer alone, so they fight well alongside the rebels. The rebels carry out their missions, gain experience, learn to attack and not just be on the defensive," he said at his headquarters on the outskirts of Donetsk, an assault rifle at his side.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/news/article/507379.html

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2014, 03:23 PM

Some commenters here in this thread often spoke of the need to "negotiate" and to "understand" the viewpoints of Russia and "yes Russia had justified complaints".

Let's see the results of the "negotiations" achieved in Minsk:

1. every day since the supposed "ceasefire" went into effect---Ukrainian forces keep getting attacked and pushed out of areas they in fact controlled BEFORE the ceasefire went into effect
2. Estonia had a national level intelligence officer physically kidnapped and taken out of Estonia by the FSB and charged in a Moscow court where Russia stated he had been in Russian territory although their own border security forces stated otherwise in a court document

AND now:

3. a Lithuanian fishing ship is captured today in international waters and taken to a Russian port

https://twitter.com/Conflict_Report/status/512960182184587264

#BRK "When the vessel command and captain refused to [follow],they were #removed_by_force and the vessel is being transported to Murmansk."

This is the same Russia that threatened to be in Kiev in two weeks and all the Baltic capitals in two days and has threatened nuclear strikes on both NATO and the US.

And commenters here still hold onto the illusion of what "negotiations will work"?

Does anyone notice a pattern here by Russia?

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2014, 03:30 PM

Supposed "ceasefire" in place---Russia states it has no troops, tanks and or heavy artillery in the Ukraine and then this hits the net.

Is anyone still surprised by what Russia states and or does not state?

Notice the quality of the delivered Russian tanks--first class armaments so who argues it is all about "separatists that stole the equipment from the Ukrainian Army"?

Russian tank transports near Kamensk-Shakhtinsky ...

Anyone REALLY still surprised?!...

pic.twitter.com/isBC1Z8r0n

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2014, 04:54 PM

And the Russian provocations just keep oncoming. No wonder Sweden and Finland are nudging themselves ever closer to NATO---it seems Russian leadership does not see the relationship between their threats and the moves by Sweden and Finland towards NATO.

Swedish Government Files Complaint To Russia Over Violation Of Swedish Airspace

14:49 (GMT)

As we reported yesterday, the Swedish government reported that two Russian Su-24 bombers deliberately entered Swedish airspace yesterday, and two Su-24s were escorted away from Latvian airspace as well (it's unclear if they were the same two bombers or different ones).

The Swedish newspaper The Local provides some additional details:

The two Su-24 attack planes took off from Kaliningrad and skirted the Polish coast before heading north at low altitude towards the Swedish island of land in the Baltic Sea, newspaper Expressen reports...

The Armed Forces declined to comment on what happened until it has conducted a full analysis.

Expressen's source however said the Armed Forces believed Russia had sent the fighter jets to test how ready Sweden was to respond.

The Aviationist is running with a story titled "Two Russian Attack Planes Intentionally Violated The Swedish Airspace To Probe Local Air Defense." They note that this fits a pattern of aggressive Russian action:

Last year Russian Tu-22 bombers conducted some mock attacks on Sweden; more recently an airliner almost collided with a Russian spyplane off Sweden. The increased Russian activity in the area and the crisis with Moscow caused by the situation in Ukraine, pushed Stockholm to move some Gripen jets to Gotlad island, off the eastern coast of Sweden, in the Baltic Sea.

The Su-24 Fencer is a supersonic, all-weather attack aircraft developed in the Soviet Union and serving, among the others, with the Syrian, Iranian and Libyan Air Force. Its twin-engined two-seater plane with a variable geometry wing, designed to perform ultra low level strike missions.

The Swedish government has officially filed complaint to Russia today over the incident, according to Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2014, 05:10 PM

Seems like Russia and the mercenaries' cannot figure what is a legal election these days.

Ukraine Liveblog: Russia Says Scottish Referendum Did Not Meet Standards, Separatists Cry Foul

http://bit.ly/1p3SEWl

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2014, 11:27 AM

Notice--the first social media reporting of Russian troops changing into "separatist" uniforms in order to continue the charade of "no troops inside the Ukraine" rhetoric from Russia.

The Russian army using tanks & artillery ambushed Ukrainian forces near Debaltsevo #Ukraine, killing 2 & wounding 16

http://nvua.net/ukraine/Sily-ATO-popali-v-zasadu-pod-Debalcevo-est-pogibshie-istochnik-12745.html …

#Russia'n militaries in #Donbass massively change to #separatists uniforms -

http://www.unian.net/politics/987269-rossiyskih-voennyih-massovo-pereodevayut-v-opolchenie.html …

Another mention of Russian troops converting to "separatists" but it appears to be the Russian peacekeeping force---has to be the 15th Russian Peacekeeping Brigade as there have been no reports of it leaving the Donetsk region.

Another #report and #confirmation:
Thousands of reg.Russian #MC troops are in #Ukraine,disguised as "local militia".

http://www.unian.net/politics/987269-rossiyskih-voennyih-na-donbasse-massovo-pereodevayut-v-opolchenie.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2014, 11:43 AM

For those that doubt that the Russians do not have tactical nuclear abilities inside the Ukraine.

Near #Donetsk two #Russia'n heavy 240 mm Tyulpan 2S4 self-propelled mortar batteries Под Донецком замечены батареи--

http://obozrevatel.com/crime/41682-pod-donetskom-zamechenyi-batarei-rossijskih-minometov-tyulpan.htm …

Further evidence of Russian troops as this weapons system was never in the Ukraine.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2014, 01:34 PM

Russia has achieved the following since the Crimea annexation, and Russian troop invasion into eastern Ukraine.

AND done even in the face of a damaged economy as sanctions came far to late and started out to weak to influence anything as all elements were already in motion before the sanctions occurred.

1. it has proved the Putin Doctrine is valid and indicated Putin is ready to use it on any country containing a Russian minority

2. it has tested and verified the new Russian UW strategy "New Generation Warfare" up through phase seven of that strategy

3. it has effectively tested the UW strategy as the key supporting element in implementing political warfare against a country

4. most importantly it has actually field tested under combat conditions their new military (C&C, intel, recon) and heavy weapons systems to include their new guided precision artillery shells which the US ARMY rarely fires due to costs of each shell

5. it has conducted a large scale field exercise around the tactical use of nuclear weapons against Poland and the Baltics

AND this exercise is far more critical to watch as it unfolded---an actual field exercise in the invasion of a medium sized country ie anyone one of the bordering Russia NATO countries---in full view of the West/NATO to watch.

AND what was the West/NATO response --no much really.

Taken from the ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl today.
Saturday, September 20, 2014

Russian 'Vostok 2014' military exercise 19-25 September

@GorseFires reported about a Russian military command and control exercise and why this is important for the world to know about this.
Here are the appropriate tweets about it:
Posted by P. Martin at 4:53 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2014, 01:42 PM

First concise gathering of Russian social media inputs to prove that Russian Spetnaz personnel were physically on the Maidan during the phase where many were being shot at and killed and all blamed the Ukrainian Special Police.

I had posted elements of this over the last three weeks as they came out on the net.

Well worth a read and this fits perfectly into the UW aspects of the new Russian military strategy "New Generation Warfare".

Concise gathering can be found at ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2014, 01:52 PM

There has been a massive explosion at a Ukrainian military weapons/chemical factory near Donetsk that was started by Russian fired rockets and or artillery that has been ongoing for over four hours now.

Russia RAI press releases blame the Ukrainians for firing two missiles at the factory---but the Ukraine has not fired anything the last two days in and or near the Donetsk.

Now starts a Russian media drumbeat that the Ukrainians were firing at their aid convoy and hit the plant---second version of the first story since it did not grab news tractions globally.

NOW this comes up via western social media taken from Russia media sources.

Kremlin is pushing the lie that Ukrainian missiles fired at unloading Russian aid convoy started explosions at Donetsk.
Excuse for MC op?

kaur

09-22-2014, 05:34 PM

In 1974 French general Beaufre explained things. It seems to me that at page 1 he talks about Crimea and page 2 he talks about present situation in Donbas region.

kaur

09-24-2014, 01:52 PM

Legendary bearded cossack Babai is back in Donbass. He left the area, when Ukrainian forces advanced. Now, there is peace treaty signed and he is back. Comment under the pic says that another fighter and head of one of the separatist group Motorola went after injury to Cirme and came back after treatment. So the safe haven for fighters is Crimea. Is there fast boat route between Donbass and peninsula?

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1810673.html

mirhond

09-25-2014, 09:15 AM

Now, there is peace treaty signed

There are no peace and no treaty,
Minsk memorandum -which is not a treaty- says nothing about peace, only about ceasefire
http://on-line.lg.ua/images/protokol11.jpg
http://on-line.lg.ua/images/protokol2(1).jpg

Moreover, I bet Ukraine will never sign "a peace treaty" because it creates DPR/LPR/Donbass/Novorossia as legal subject, there will be vague memorandums ageements and protocols.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2014, 01:43 PM

There are no peace and no treaty,
Minsk memorandum -which is not a treaty- says nothing about peace, only about ceasefire
http://on-line.lg.ua/images/protokol11.jpg
http://on-line.lg.ua/images/protokol2(1).jpg

Moreover, I bet Ukraine will never sign "a peace treaty" because it creates DPR/LPR/Donbass/Novorossia as legal subject, there will be vague memorandums ageements and protocols.

comrade mirhond---guess this is the Russian definition of the term "ceasefire"==Russian term "ceasefire" just means on what receiving end of the rocket fire and artillery fire one sits at---notice the firing is coming from the so called "separatist side" which claimed they never signed the agreement but you mirhond just proved they did in fact sign it.

From 36 minutes ago :
No ceasing of fire in #Donetsk, where volleys of incoming and outgoing rockets roared through the night and continue to pound city today.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2014, 04:53 PM

comrade mirhond---guess this is the Russian definition of the term "ceasefire"==Russian term "ceasefire" just means on what receiving end of the rocket fire and artillery fire one sits at---notice the firing is coming from the so called "separatist side" which claimed they never signed the agreement but you mirhond just proved they did in fact sign it.

From 36 minutes ago :
No ceasing of fire in #Donetsk, where volleys of incoming and outgoing rockets roared through the night and continue to pound city today.

comrade mirhond---appears the only one participating in the "ceasefire" is the Ukraine---certainly not Russian troops and their mercenaries.

Russian heavy artillery shelling towns near #Mariupol
two Ukrainian soldiers killed
pic.twitter.com/ICKOeptsvS

#Lutugino, #Lugansk reg - terrorists killed 40 local civilians for helping Ukrainian Army (food, water)
http://inforesist.org/v-lutugino-boeviki-rasstrelyali-40-mirnyx-zhitelej-smi/ … RT

Heavy fighting still ongoing at Donetsk airport with GRAD and artillery from Russian troops and mercenaries--21 minutes ago

#Mariupol, Shirokine, Bezymenne: Russian heavy artillery shelling towns--42 minutes ago

#Russia has blocked 600 web sites deemed “extremist” under new internet law this yr, inc news sites critical of Kremlin

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2014, 05:16 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2014, 06:32 PM

Appears that the FSB cannot stop tanks, artillery and mercenaries from crossing into the Ukraine but if it is "hamsters"---both the FSB and the Customs Security Force seem to be able to stop as least "hamsters".

Russian authorities reject 90 hamsters they say a Ukrainian was trying to bring illegally across the border to Russia

http://lifenews.ru/news/141444

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 12:52 PM

I had written here several weeks ago that I felt that the Ukraine had in fact "suckered in Russia into the eastern Ukraine" and AP took offense at the comment.

Now that the dawn of light has shed more light on a couple of things --these new items tend to support that argument I made.

1. The Ukrainian President's comment at a press conference that 65% of the heavy Ukrainian military equipment---that means tanks, artillery and MRLS's had been destroyed in eastern Ukraine---at the same time there was a small comment coming out of the UA HDQs that the General Staff had wanted to ut more equipment into the Donbas but did not due to their understanding that the Russians would use high precision artillery shells against the heavy equipment which they indeed do---while yes they lost troops killed and wounded/missing--nothing on the scale of the mercenaries and Russian troops

2. the Russian Army had unusually large numbers of KIAs/WIAs and missing and that seemed to point towards excellent artillery strikes and prior knowledge of Russian troop movements coming from somewhere

3. the Minsk agreements even as argued by Russia that they were based on Putin's input --effectively slanted all the agreements to exactly what the Ukraine had stated was their solution back in June 2014 and basically repeated to the world from June onwards as the Ukrainian position---so the end solution was in fact Ukrainian not Russian

4. in these agreements any financial support to the New Russia from the Ukraine will not occur unless they are "under" the Ukrainian flag--Russia has sent food but did anyone notice credits/monies flowing to the separatists from Russia---nothing ----notice Russian has been extremely silent on the subject--the Ukraine has on the other not been silent---no support unless under the Ukrainian flag

5. the Donetsk New Russia government stated they wanted a series of economic decisions agreed to by Kyiv before the political decisions could be reached---notice the Ukraine response---no

6. the Ukrainian forces used in the east were "light weight types" ie SF, airborne, two armored brigades and a bunch of independent BNs against over in the final stages 15-20K mercenaries and Russian troops--in fact not a bad show of military fighting if the Russian loss figures are anywhere close to being accurate

7. western economic sanctions for Russian actions have been heavy and are in fact deeply hurting the Russian economy weakening Putin overall and will remain in effect for a long while---they would have not kicked in the final and heaver sanctions if Russia had stayed outside the Ukraine--Russian troops only came in when it appeared that in fact the Ukrainians were winning on the ground against the mercenaries

8. Russian military costs just for the exercises around the Ukraine and sending in Russian troops/weapons has got to be in the 100s of millions of USDs per day at a time when the overall Russian economy is sinking and it will be literally be at some point bullets vs butter in the coming year or two

9. also a small remark made by the Ukrainian President in his recent press conference---when asked why the West had not sent anti tank weapons to deal with the Russian heavy tank concentrations---his response is really interesting---"we did not need them" as we have enough of our own and they are more accurate and far cheaper"---that begs the simple question---then why were they not used in large numbers to stop Russian tank movements? Almost like someone wanted Russian tanks running all over the place to show to the world Russian intentions which then drove quickly the heavier sanctions regime.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 01:12 PM

While the Russian info war is part and parcel of their new military UW strategy against the Ukraine and the SOCEUR called it a "blitz krieg" and part of their "new hybrid warfare" we saw absolutely no response by the US BUT then this today in the NYTs.

NYTs from today:
U.S. Uses Social Media to Rebut Propaganda

By BRIAN KNOWLTON

A government team’s striking video and other postings are being disseminated through Twitter and Facebook to counter skillful online campaigns.

Seems again there is effectively no US strategy for central Europe, Russia and the Ukraine other that "take a break and drink tea".

Simply amazing---if the US civilian leadership thinks the IS social media usage is "skillful online campaigns" then what is the Russian info war classified as---second class peanuts played in the backrooms of say RIA/ITASS/Interfax using a total of three bloggers?

Can it be that the US is so fixated on the IS it "somehow forgot the rest of the world"?

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 01:37 PM

Another day in the Ukrainian "ceasefire" the Russian troops and mercenaries signed.

Oh! What a Lovely Ceasefire. Russian terrorists tweet image of Russian Forces live fire at Ukrainian forces.

pic.twitter.com/IGeAJcS060

NOTICE---the Russian National flag on the APC--then this from the OSCE SMM teams in the Ukraine today:

LOL Russia's #OSCE envoy, said "There is nothing. No evidence... [OSCE] have no evidence of regular #Russian troops fighting in #Ukraine

AND the "so called ceasefire fighting" continues:

Ukrainian T-64 tanks, fight off Russian attacks in #Nikishyne.

Invaders attack the village since 5 days.

pic.twitter.com/NaMVOFsX2R

This is #Dokuchaievsk. Grads fired by #Russia|ns.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUC8svz4px8 …

One clearly audible #Grad missile attack on #Donetsk airport
pic.twitter.com/0tutEXHco6 via @Conflict_Report
http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/27-september-one-clearly-audible-grad-missile-attack-on-donetsk

You can hear fresh shelling every 30-90 seconds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-fBgVXH7Bo …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 01:48 PM

One of the three Russian Nuclear C and C airborne aircraft pictured below---reported there are three in the inventory and all are flying.

RUAF Il-87 Maxdome once again pictured. airborne at #Chkalovsk. #Russia pic.twitter.com/kH8mdYqH0a via @Military_NewsNL

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 02:00 PM

Lest we forget exactly how Russia treats their "own separatists" inside the RF.

In the week marking 15th anniv. of start 2nd Chechen War - This what happens to separatists in Russia.

pic.twitter.com/ASSOY5AMzV

In Chechnya, Russian Army executed 1000s civilians, buried mass graves near Grozny
http://thenorthcaucasus.wordpress.com/2014/03/18/mass-graves/ …

pic.twitter.com/h1PJJ2EnRM

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 02:11 PM

This is an interesting map perspective of how the Russians "see" their ongoing battle in eastern Ukraine.

Latest #Russia|n battle map of "greater Transnistria"
v/ a well-known Kremlin site

pic.twitter.com/ynVcW8U8QW

You will notice that inside the Russian perspective battle map there are a number of blue colored Ukrainian army encirclements that are still seem to be holding on to their locations regardless of ongoing "ceasefire" fighting in and around them--that is an interesting development--begs the question just how are they holding on being surrounded are they are?

AmericanPride

09-27-2014, 02:14 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 05:33 PM

Outlaw,

You're reading into the situation your own narrative. Poroshenko's "[suckering] in" of Russia comes at great cost and risk, not to just him personally, but also to Ukraine's political stability and territorial integrity. And if true it opens him up to charges of treason for essentially enabling the Russians to seize a third of the country and kill thousands of his Ukrainian countrymen. That is what you are suggesting. It's not offensive to me. It's patently absurd.

Let's see AP just how absurd the concept is;

1. right now the Russian economy is staggering under the same sanctions you claimed would not effect Russia
2. the "war costs" to Russia for their troops and heavy equipment goes into the 100s of millions of USDs
3. the internal population turmoil about the invasion by Russian troops and their deaths of the Ukraine---cannot be determined right now but is potent in the long run
4. the West does not currently trust Putin and that is for the long run
5. the Russia Army losses are far higher than Putin and the FSB ever anticipated
6. the Donbas--and this is critical and yet you seem to fail to "see" it---after the Crimea Russia was in fact going to make a move on the Donbas---which you by the way did not think it would happen right AP? You do remember I stated a long number of times he was going to move into the Donbas just as he is determined for a Odessa land corridor to the Crimea
7. you even failed to take notice of a Ukrainian financial and economic assessment of losing the Donbas would actually not hurt the Ukraine that I included on the non military thread side

AND oh by the way AP you did notice that quietly through the back door new rebuilt Russian heavy equipment is coming into the Ukraine from a number of NATO members, oh let's see there is a contract now in place where former US SOF are training the medical side and weapons training and small unit tactics training and oh by the way the US led NATO exercises in western Ukraine is now training UA Brigade and BN staffs---

So all of this would have and or not have occurred HAD Russia not entered the Ukraine--come on AP---absurd--think it through.

AND this is critical a bulk of the UA was protected and has refitted and tactical moved into new locations effectively blocking optional moves that are certainly going to come---and the price--Russia paid it.

You also failed to notice in the Russia purported tactical map of the military situation you might have noticed an interesting set of surrounded Ukrainian troops which if you had read the Minsk agreements---they will remain in place--ever wonder why?

AND you even missed the most important issue---due to the Russian troops marching in the sanctions became even heavier--WHAT if Putin had not moved in?

Remember AP the Ukraine being far more in tune to the EU than you is saw the last sanction round faltering at the last minute---weaknesses being displayed by Hungary, Slovenia, Finland and the Czechs--so if Russia had not moved in would there have been the last round of sanctions?--IMO not really.

Think it through AP--remember "seeing" something does not translate into "understanding".

Let's see the rebuilding of the occupied portions of the Donbas does not fall to Kyiv if the separatists remain under the New Russian flag---who is then going to rebuild it for them ---Russia?

Remember under your scenario--Russia will have to step in in order to maintain the illusion of support to fellow ethnic Russians and Putin will fail at that just as he has in the Crimea.

The damaged portions of what remains in the Donbas will be repaired by the West--so a plus there.

Let's see on the military side 2500 killed and wounded not really bad considering the opponent placed 15-20K mercenaries and Russian troops into the east.

So again AP---just what are the so called "wins" for Russian troops and especially for Putin in the Donbas as I can only "see" negatives.

THEN go back in slow fashion and count through the "wins" for the Ukraine--you might learn something.

Remember what appears to be "absurd" to us is not so "absurd" to others.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 06:04 PM

AP--remember what I said before here the Putin end state is a Russian land corridor to the Crimea and it would actually then place the Ukraine into full dependence of Russia due to having no Black Sea ports.

Backed up by he way by the Ukrainian economic analysis I posted here.

Russian invasion forces resume their assault on #Mariupol.
Massive #Grad salvo hits eastern sururbs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOQPF4z_vxQ …

Notice AP now the UA is responding in kind to the Russian fires.

The Ukrainian army says, it responded with a #Grad salvo to the Russian attack at eastern #Mariupol.

By the way---this is from the artillery firing side from the Russians provided by a UK based Russian TV journalist who has gone over to the dark side and is reporting from the Russian side who by the way has either participated in and or witnessed countless Russian war crimes on Ukrainian POWs.

Ceasefire? What ceasefire? This is a pretty incredible video of artillery from @GrahamWP_UK on the frontlines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0ewwABRD_o …

Notice the Russian supported mercenaries are still firing from civilian enters although they claimed before Russia marched in the Ukrainians were the ones firing from civilian positions.

Talking about #WAR_CRIMES.
Russian invaders fire D-30 from residential area in E #Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY4DgqM72xA …

pic.twitter.com/r1iEXkTox

AmericanPride

09-27-2014, 06:26 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 06:34 PM

Outlaw,

Again, you are deliberately misinterpreting my comments. I never stated that sanctions would "not effect" Russia. However, I did state sanctions are unlikely to reverse Russia's policy in Ukraine - that's a very different statement. And last I checked, Russian proxies still occupy parts of Ukraine.

Also, I never stated that Russia would not intervene in eastern Ukraine. In fact, I stated that Russian credibility would compel Russian intervention if the separatists faced annihilation by the Ukrainian Army.

But feel free in calling Poroshenko a clever traitor by inviting the Russians to seize a third of his country and kill thousands of his countrymen - and for what? To just give Russia the Donbas anyway?:rolleyes: Yes, it is absurd.

So again AP when you know Russia is going to take the Donbas as he has stated he will, and you know the EU/NATO/US will not go to war---then you develop your own survival strategy and then implement it--he is a through and through businessman and it is in fact a business survival strategy to protect your "company".

He has protected the UA and allowed I to refit, retrain and redeploy this time with more tanks, anti tanks weapons and artillery ---actually not a bad move. AND as a CEO he is anticipating that there will be more Russian economic sanctions if Russia makes a move toward other Ukrainian cities and towns outside the Donbas ie Kharkiv and Odessa. The core questions remains---will the Ukraine survive long enough to see the Russian economy totally stall and hit the civilian population forcing Putin to pull back.

BUT again you did not read the posted article concerning the Ukraine by a leading Russian fascist did you?

So I misinterpreted your comments that what "negotiations work", ---reference you Minsk agreements.

For anybody who is in any doubt: Ukrainian ceasefire is only holding where it doesn't count. Elsewhere: game on…

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 06:59 PM

AP--notice the Russian FM comments at the UN:

Not once is that any mention that just maybe--- just maybe Russian actions triggered anything---it just of the same old "it ain't us" mentality.

Do they really believe the world really believes them any more?

Again as in the Stalin and Brezhnev eras---it is all the fault of the West.

Lavrov: People of Crimea exercised self-determination. West has ignored atrocities in Ukraine. MH17 investigation has been "drawn out."

NOTE: Not quite the truth on MH17 and the West has taken note of Russian POW war crimes---Russia pushed back and states all the time "it ain't us".

Lavrov: NATO is "unable to change its genetic code that was created during the Cold War."

NOTE: So what is the flip side---Russia has it's own genetic code---ie "fascism" that it calls "nationalism" and it definitely ignores it.

Lavrov: Russian proposals for new European security treaty were rejected. Security is only for NATO countries.

NOTE: NATO did respond but Russia failed to come back after the NATO response because they did not accept the Russian proposals.

Lavrov: "Western partners did not heed our numerous warnings" not to violate UN charter.

NOTE: I can count at least six major Russian UN violations since 2008.

Lavrov: goal of "colored revolutions and other projects" is to "create instability."

NOTE: THIS AP is a core Russian truth --they feared the Maidan and it's influence on the Russian population.

Thus the move on the Ukraine under the guise of "protecting ethnic Russians from deep discrimination" which by the way ethnic Russians are only 44% of the Donbas population 56% are Ukrainian.

Lavrov: Washington "openly declared" its right to unilateral use of force anywhere. Military interference has become the norm.

NOTE: So what is the Putin Doctrine since 2008?

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2014, 07:38 PM

Putin in national Russian TV publicly stated that he had given orders to the FSB and Russian border Security Services to secure the border to the Ukraine.

Or at least that is what Putin publicly stated. So as we have seen the reality---was it in fact an elaborate lie or the truth?

Video from AFP is quite interesting as it basically calls Putin an out right liar when compared to his public statement concerning Russian border security.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/agence-france-presse-ukraines-border-to-russia-wide-open-in-rebel-held-zone-video-366180.html

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 09:57 AM

AP---here is the basic difference we have I tend to believe what Putin and his radical nationalist fascist ideologue partners say when it comes to the Ukraine.

Example--just what has Russia used as English word terms to describe Russian soldiers inside the Ukraine?

1. they simply got lost
2. they are "vacationers"
3. they are on "contract"

Then on the 26th at the UN the Russian FM uses the new term below;

Lavrov calls Russian soldiers "Russian Volunteers" http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/09/28/7039122/ …

At some point one tends to simply think the Russians want to redo the standard English dictionary for terms that actually describe the term "soldier".

BUT then Russian troops tend to use social media and one then sees this inside the Ukraine.

Russian soldiers from Ryazan last week in Starobeshevo
pic.twitter.com/WCxlszMfw1

AND yet the Russian OSCE ambassador states also---"it ain't us".

Then this Russian ideologue steps up and voices something he voiced shortly after the annexation of the Crimea and that is not what "by accident"---then when one understands that he is simply a hard core Russian "fascist" hidden in nationalist terms and that he his lose to Putin then you ears have to open and attempt to see the bigger picture.

See AP when I see also key Hungarian political types who are also on the extreme far right and I see Slovenian far right politicians say the same things since the beginning of the Crimea then my ears tend to pay attention as what they are saying is not by "accident".

I have been mentioning it here a number of times---Putin used the far right to strengthen himself and I am not so sure he does not now fully identify with them---truly understand the Russian far right and you will understand Putin---actually very simple.

Now read this slowly and thoroughly and you will understand Putin's views towards the Ukraine which he never speaks about but his actions do speak volumes.

Staunton, September 25 – At a time when Vladimir Putin has made what was earlier unthinkable into reality, it would be a major mistake to ignore a recent statement by Vladimir Zhirinovsky about how Ukraine will be reduced in size or even eliminated altogether in the coming years, according to Andrey Illarionov.

In an article today on Svobodnaya Zona, the Russian commentator says that those who have dismissed the often outrageous remarks of Zhirinovsky in the past have regretted it because stripped of his often hyperbolic adjectives and adverbs, they have often served as earlier warnings about the direction Putin subsequently takes.

In an interview to the German newspaper Bild this week, Illarionov points out, Zhirinovsky said that Ukraine “in its current form does not have a future. If the process of the disintegration of the country continues at its former tempos, then already by 2019, Ukraine as an independent state will not exist.

Because of what the Russian parliamentarian describes as the anti-Russian policy of the Ukrainian government, Kyiv has infuriated Russian speakers in Ukraine and thus created “with its own hands” the crisis it now faces. Russia has claims against its territory as a result, as do for historical reasons Poland, Romania and Hungary.

“Five years from now,” Zhirinovsky says, “in place of Ukraine will be six or seven regions with a population of ten to twelve million people. And that,” he continues, “is the most optimistic scenario” for the part of the world.

Illarionov argues that everyone should pay attention to Zhirinovsky’s words, “not of course because they reflect the real situation of the majority of ethnic Russians and/or Russian speakers of Ukraine toward the Ukrainian state … but because Zhirinovsky … is fulfilling the most important public function of revealing the character of thought and the direction of preparation for action of the Supreme Ruler,” Vladimir Putin.

And the need to take Zhirinovsky seriously in this case is all the more true because the ideas he shared with “Bild” are ones that he has promoted before. In March of this year, for example, he send messages to Warsaw, Budapest and Bucharest proposing the “de facto partition of Ukraine.”

According to Zhirinovsky at that time, if the others took their share of Ukraine and Russia annexed Crimea, Sevastopol, and the eight regions (oblasts) of the so-called “Novorossiya,” what would remain of Ukraine would be nine regions plus Kyiv on the territory of which now live approximately 14.7 million people.

Another reason for thinking that Zhirinovsky is speaking for more than himself is that two weeks ago, an identical idea about the partition of Ukraine was floated by the Czech radio station Impuls, a reflection of the thinking of pro-Putin Prague leader Vaclav Klaus.

Somewhat before that, in May 2014, Illarionov points out, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Urban made some similar comments about ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine.

What all these figures have in common is that they are operating under a “common” political and ideological conception long pushed by Putin. Speaking at the Russia-NATO Council meeting in Bucharest on April 2, 2008, the Russian president said the following:

“In Ukraine one third of the population are ethnic Russians. Of 45 million people even according to the official census, there are 17 million Russians. There are regions where only Russians live, such as Crimea: 90 percent are Russians. Ukraine in general is a very complex country. Ukraine in that form in which it exists today was one which was created in Soviet times. It received territory from Poland after World War II, from Czechoslovakia and Romania and even now not all the border problems on the Black Sea with Romania have been solved.

This means that [Ukraine] received enormous territories from Russia on the east and south. This is a very complex state formation. And if one introduces there the NATO problem and other problems, this in general can put on the brink of existence its statehood as such. Consequently, it is necessary to act very, very carefully. We do not have any right of veto…but I want that all of us when we decide on issues of this kind understand that we also have our own interests. Well, 17 million Russians live in Ukraine. Who can tell us that we do not have any interests there? The south, the south of Ukraine is completely [Russian]; there live only Russians.”

“Thus,” Illarionov says, “Putin’s strategic goal, the liquidation of contemporary Ukraine has remained unchanged at a minimum since the spring of 2008, which by the way does not leave a stone on a stone of the infantile commentaries of certain Western observers (like former US ambassador to Russia Mjchael McFaul) about the annexation of Crimea as “a sudden, emotional and instinctive reaction of Putin to the Maidan revolution and the flight of Yanukovych.”

“The fresh statements of V.Zhirinovsky, V. Klaus, and V. Urban are valuable,” Illarionov continues, “because they shed light not only on the strategic goals of V. Putin” but also on his “active measures” with other members of what is becoming “the Putin international.”

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 10:44 AM

I am anticipating Russian troops to be on the more within the next 72-96 hours as the indicators are picking up again.

From the supposed "negotiation successes" there is nothing that was implemented and the "ceasefire" never really was a "ceasefire".

1. More "volunteers' (remember the Russian FM formally used this term in the UN speech) having been pouring into the Ukraine and wear the uniform now of the New Russian Army so therefore no more Russian troops can be "found" inside the Ukraine.

2. Per the "successful negotiations" of Minsk all Russian troops and mercenaries were to have left---instead more arrived and none left.

3. The mercenaries and Russian troops were to pull back their heavy artillery and MRLS systems 30 kms from the buffer zone--per the "successful negotiations" that did not work exactly to plan--INSTEAD the Russian Army units just redeployed to new locations in preparations for new assaults and the shellings just get on continuing. The UA started to comply but stopped when they 'saw" no compliance on the other side and are now in fact returning fire when fired upon.

4. Russian troops and mercenaries launched a total of 72 artillery/MRLS shellings and ground attacks JUST in the last 24 hours way up in the scale of the last ten or so days being used as an "average day"

5. the mercenaries have even stopped the POW exchange which even Russia supposedly supported and hyped in their media as a critical part of the "successful" Putin peace plan

So in effect the so called "successful negotiations" of Minsk really are just a smokescreen and really are a failure.

Why the move coming by Russians on Mariupol and Odessa?---for the New Russia to succeed Russia needs a port and by the way 36% of all Russian weapons exports went through Mariupol last year.

I also suspect they fully understand that the "New Russia" is financially dependent on the Ukraine and not vice versa thus the need for a land corridor between the Moldovian enclave, "New Russia' and the Crimea giving Russia complete control of the Black Sea oil and gas fields and military control of the Black Sea in general

Russia is now in a hurry as their economy is sinking faster than anticipated with a new super low USD/Euro Ruble exchange rate hitting yesterday and now even the "man in the Russian streets" is seeing the impact and is starting to ask questions about "why there is a war with the Ukraine?"

THEN the attempt by the Russian FM at the UN on the 26th to paint the US and NATO as the main causes of the Ukrainian problem---did not really work out well as the UN GS at the end stood up and basically told Russia it was not helping to work towards a solution.

Have not heard type of Russian speech since the depths of the Cold War days.

So next military move by Russia is programed and it is not a question of if but when.

AND no "negotiations" will end what is going on until either the West states definitively that they are now going to support the Ukraine militarily which will not happen and or the Russian economy collapses---which seems to be in the process of melting down.

IMO the US is seeing the "melt down" and are somewhat surprised thus the Sec. of Commerce's statement in Kyiv this week---there will be no more sanctions as they are already painful enough.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 11:02 AM

[QUOTE=OUTLAW 09;161574]AP---here is the basic difference we have -I tend to believe what Putin and his radical nationalist fascist ideologue partners say when it comes to the Ukraine.

One has to "see" the drumbeat of this type of Russian 'fascist" argument in order to "understand" all 'negotiations" are doomed to failure.

This was taken from Russia media and is just another in a long list of such articles calling for the eventual destruction of the Ukraine.

An interesting read if nothing more than it gives a massive insight into the Russian "fascist" mindset which many in the West seem to want to overlook as an underlying driver.

NOTE the author's comment in the second to last paragraph---telling.

‘Novorossiya’ is where a National Socialist Future for Russia is Being Prepared

Paul Goble September 26, 2014

Staunton, September 26 – The pro-Moscow militants in Ukraine’s Donbas backed by Russian forces represent a threat not only to the territorial integrity of Ukraine but to the future of Russia because the leaders of “Novorossiya” combine nationalism and socialism in a way that recalls some of the greatest evils of the 20th century.

In a commentary in Vzglyad yesterday, Petr Akopov speaks about “the enormous influence” which “Novorossiya” could have “on all of Russia” and points out that while Igor Strelkov is “an imperialist and a monarchist, many local commanders have socialist” and distinctly “’Soviet’” views.

The Moscow commentator does not take the next step and speak of national socialism – most Russians still refer to Hitler’s movement as the Nazis and avoid mentioning that it rested on that combination – but the threat of the revival of such an ideological system in Putin’s Russia is all too real.

Such a danger may be especially great precisely because of the way in which Akopov describes what is happening ideologically in “Novorossiya.” He speaks of “a synthesis of the Red and White idea,” which he says “the Kremlin is seeking to find for Russia,” a synthesis that will allow the emergence of a just social system in the Russian world.

Akopov’s observation about this combination of nationalism and socialism comes in the course of his survey of what in fact “Novorossiya” is or can be for Russia. According to the commentator, there are three distinctive answers, given that returning the region to Kyiv’s control is not going to happen.

The first approach, he says, is that “Novorossiya must reunite with Russia.” Not yet but rather after “the further disintegration of Ukraine and the increase in the size of Novorossiya as a minimum to the full borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and still better with Kharkiv, Zaporozhe and Herson” as well.

Such an annexation and its timing – it could occur “a year from now or three” – is not critical. Russia will simply take what it wants and leave the remainder of Ukraine “under a Western protectorate,” where Akopov says, he hopes that its collapse will continue and thus allow Russia to absorb the rest bit by bit.

The second possibility the commentator lists is that “Novorossiya is only a transitional form of the struggle for all of Ukraine.” Obviously, he says, “Russia cannot allow the departure of Ukraine to the West and therefore Novorossiya is needed only as an instrument in the struggle with the United States and the European Union for power in Ukraine.”

In this case, Moscow will use “Novorossiya” as leverage on Kyiv and as a means for the return of all of Ukraine to “a union with Russia.” Neither this option nor the first will be affected all that much by the ideological mix that is emerging in the Donbas now, the Moscow commentator suggests.

But the third possible course of development is different in that regard as well as others. Under its terms. “Russia must use all methods, military, political and economic to work for the speedy end of the Ukrainian state and the expansion of Novorossiya,” Akopov says. Then Russia will conclude a treaty with the new state of “Novorossiya” and be affected by its ideology.

Putin, the commentator says, “obviously is going along the second path, fighting for all of Ukraine but if, God forbid,” Akopov continues, “things will work out so that it will become clear that this struggle will require from Russia not two or three years but a much larger period of time, then he could move to the third variant.”

If that happens, Akopov says, then “the issue of the Novorossiya ideology will become key, even decisive, in defining the future of Russia.”

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 11:40 AM

Outside of the word "ceasefire" which seems to be unable to be translated into Russian maybe we need a new definition of it to explain exactly what is ongoing inside eastern Ukraine.

Maybe something like---"rolling shelling peace" or "fire in place when ready peace" or maybe even better---"redeploy in the wrong direction peace"

Or maybe the Russians and mercenaries "misread" the Minsk Two agreements to pull out all MRLS and artillery over 100mms----maybe they "read" it to mean everything UNDER 100mms.

NSDC " Russia deployed more military hardware in Dzhankoi /North Crimea"

Russian invasion forces continue their offensive's exactly where they want. Donetsk airport, Pisky, Avdviika, Debaltseve and Shchastya

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 12:36 PM

From the pro Russian side of the eastern fighting---here is their 26/27 Sept military map.

UA still holding four pockets inside Russian controlled territory.

https://twitter.com/Black_Bomb/status/516178302542032897/photo/1

Leave it up to twitter to come up with a far better definition of what a "ceasefire" is.

Taken from Orwell for those that might not like Orwell-----it fits.

"Battle is ceasefire"

Military sitmap from UA side today.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/516170681911087104/photo/1

From Donetsk airport today:

Fights raging in #Yasynuvata (pic 1) & at #Donetsk airport (pic 2). Indiscriminate shelling, gun battles, the works.

pic.twitter.com/jD3Ei52JLm

Again from the airport today:

Kittens, Christ & all. #Russians storm #Ukrainian-held airport (uncut).
pic.twitter.com/OfMJF4J6u8

This report by @tsnua from inside #Donetsk airport 2 days ago. Today pitched battle being fought there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad59kOCxkeY&app=desktop

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 12:50 PM

It seems more and more journalists and authors are picking up on the Russian "fascism".

It must be thoroughly understood in order to understand Putin's moves right now.

It is interesting that it was seen in 2007 by others but not by the West and the US--wonder why?---maybe everyone was blinded by the "Russian reset'.

And made the fatal mistake that one makes when dealing with a "fascist" country---"negotiations"--- the false assumption that it always works.

Reflection, 2007 article: "The alarming spread of fascism in Putin’s Russia" and the cult of “Nashi”
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/07/putin-russia-nashi-soviet …

How some far right Europeans are still tied to Russia via the former KGB.

https://news.vice.com/article/the-far-right-european-lawmaker-and-the-three-decade-kgb-honey-trap

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 12:55 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 01:40 PM

Another example of Russian spin--Russian has been on a massive new modernization program for weapons, equipment, military forces and nuclear weapons under their 2020 program and to argue that they have not been rearming and refitting with some very new sophisticated weapons systems is outright spin.

He even missed the fact that they have violated the INF on one of their new nuclear missiles and have not disarmed under the OSCE agreements.

Russia's Lavrov Says Time Has Come to Upgrade Nuclear, Conventional Arms
Reuters
Sep. 28 2014 15:56
Last edited 15:56

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted on Sunday as saying that the time had come for his country to modernise its nuclear and conventional arsenals.

"I don't think we are on the verge of a new arms race. At least, Russia definitely won't be part of it. In our case, it's just that the time has come for us to modernise our nuclear and conventional arsenals," Lavrov said, according to a transcript of an interview with Russia Today television published on its website.

"We have a long-term armament program, which takes into account our economic situation and, of course, the need to have efficient and modern defensive capabilities to protect our national interest ... We haven't been doing much in this regard for a number of years," he added.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2014, 02:00 PM

There have been an increasing number of reports concerning infighting between the various mercenary groups and also with the RF troops over the Russian troop attacks on UA positions.

Over the past few days we have got to know of at least 5 cases when negotiating groups of the local separatists came to emplacements of Ukrainian military in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions with additional requests under observation of truce. The local militants stated that they honored the agreements of the peace plan but as a result of that they had confrontations with Russian Cossacks and uniformed services (representatives of the Armed Forces, Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff, and Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation). Those representatives tried to force them to break the truce and perform provocative attacks. Because of this, the separatists asked Ukrainian military not to fire back and assured that “they will sort it out with the Don Cossacks, Chechens, as well as the feds who continue to provoke attacks”.

At the same time we receive information that the federals are preparing anti-retreat forces and have even already threatened with executions for refusals to assault Ukrainian emplacements.

By the way, there is a video in the Internet how one of the Russian battalions, “Kalmius”, despite the peace agreement, continues to shell Ukrainian emplacements from 2S1 Gvozdika and 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers.

Recall that over the last days the number of internecine confrontations between the terrorists and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has significantly increased. After one of the militant groups in Donetsk had blown up 4 howitzers and one 2S4 Tyulpan large-caliber mortar of the Russian Forces that had performed provocative shelling of Ukrainian emplacements, there were several clashes between the groupings with different political views. After that there were several cases of mortar shelling of warring factions, which resulted in loss of both military equipment and manpower.

Besides, some terrorist groups, which do not honor the truce, continue attempts both to shell and even to attack Ukrainian emplacements. For example, today in the area of Nikishyne militants conducted another attack. As a result, there are 2 wounded and no killed from the Ukrainian side, the attack was repulsed, all checkpoints were held. There were casualties among the terrorists, however, the exact number is not known.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 12:41 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 01:27 PM

A second really really good open source analysis of the Buk missile launcher videos from the MH17 shot down does seem to place them inside the Ukraine at the originally reported locations.

Will be interesting to see how both Russian and their trolls respond to the analysis as Russia did state at the UN on the 26th it wanted transparency in the MH17 crash investigation and since they are sitting with their troops on the crash site--I am somewhat surprised by their UN statement.

https://bellingcat.com/resources/case-studies/2014/09/29/geolocating-the-mh17-buk-convoy-in-russia/

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 01:34 PM

Now we are starting to see small sabotage "incidents" expand out to Odessa.

Not though a Russian SF/GRU sabotage team which would have used far more explosives over a longer distance of track and in fact dropped the bridge---seems to be someone "testing" their training to gain news cycles.

There was also today another small explosion on a rail line inside Odessa---so either a true Russia SF/GRU team and or a "local mercenary team" is on the move with Odessa appearing to become the next focal point next to Mariupol.

Disturbing news from southern Ukraine: a railroad near Odessa blown up. Nobody took responsibility
pic.twitter.com/PWsZlTjmsh

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 01:51 PM

Look's again like the "so called successful negotiation's" in Minsk were really just a smokescreen and nothing more.

Fighting now again at pre Minsk levels from the UA loses and numbers of attacks on them.

The NSDC: Ukrainian forces killed 50 militants tonight via @euromaidan http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/29-september-the-nsdc-ukrainian-forces-killed-50-militants …

Russia's Profil magazine on the Caucasian fighters in #ukraine http://www.profile.ru/rossiya/item/86562-svoya-chuzhaya-vojna …

Btwn Sept 22-28 #Ukraine units in #Debaltseve eliminated most of #Russian SOF "Vityaz" unit (1 ПСН ВВ РФ "Витязь" (вч 3179), г.Москва).

This killing of a Russian SF team goes to the credit of an ongoing UA SF/SBU CUW effort that is talked about behind closed doors.

Deputy MFA of #Russia: Kremlin does not intend to stop sending aid convoys to #Ukraine
Poroshenko: Russian convoy is intervention in Ukraine

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 02:12 PM

I had heard a couple of days ago about a Ukrainian hacker group that broke into the file server of a very well known Russian far rightist ie "fascist" and had recovered about 2.4GBs of files concerning his group's support to the LNR and DNR.

Today some of the documents surfaced an appear to be accurate---an interesting insight of how the Russian far right is playing a role inside eastern Ukraine.

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2014/09/29/russia-ukriane-doc-leak-ldpr/

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 03:54 PM

The "Battle is Ceasefire" continues at a higher ops tempo---the Donetsk Airport is being massively shelled by Russian artillery today and the following UA losses have been reported in the attacks over the last 24 hours.

We are once again back to the "true war" level of Ukrainian loses--the Ukrainian Army finally is returning artillery fire even in civilian areas as that is where the Russian shelling is coming from and naturally the mercenaries scream the UA is shelling civilians.

Yesterday the UA the OSCE and 78 yes 78 actual Russian Army officers met near Donetsk to define the buffer zones and yet they just keep on shelling.

#BreakingConfirmation
9 Ukrainian soldiers killed,27 injured during the last 24 hours.

We are back at full-scale war!
Also from casualties.

Seems that one of the Russian officers "mapping out the New Russia borders" was in fact the Russian Deputy Commander Russian Land Forces---AND Russia is not involved in eastern Ukraine?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neW35L-UCQM … #Horlivka, #Ukraine: #Russia sends Deputy Commander Land Forces to help map #Novorussia. pic.twitter.com/1ENvQrtLjH

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 04:08 PM

It seems we the US have a double standard when it comes to "terrorists" ---if we see American citizens fighting for the IS we send in drones, the FBI and the CIA and turn lose the NSA.

IF though on the other an unemployed ex military American is fighting for a neo Nazi mercenary group in the eastern Ukraine involved in a large number of war crimes against Ukrainian POWs he gets hardly the time of day in the US media.

American Fighting With Ukraine Insurgents Speaks To Reuters

13:49 (GMT)

We've been tracking an American, going by the name of "Hunter," who is fighting alongside the Russian-backed militias in eastern Ukraine.

It seems that Hunter has encountered journalists from Reuters and has spoken to them, but the interview did not net very much information:

Using his "nom de guerre" and refusing to reveal his real name, age or home town, he described himself as a veteran of the American military without a job in the United States. He did not explain the reasons for his commitment to helping the rebels.

"I don't want anybody to think I fight for the Russian government here," he said, adding that he was in eastern Ukraine to "help" the population demanding a clean break from Kiev.

Apparently keen to show their cause has attracted support from abroad, the rebels drove him to the interview in the car of one of the Vostok battalion's leaders.

As we reported last week, Hunter has made statements in a Youtube video where he admits that his understanding of the political situation in Ukraine "is limited" but he is sure that "it seems to be a very simple, straightforward situation and the Kiev junta does not necessarily, I believe, reflect, they don't, they don't err, consider the popular opinion of the people of Donbass. So that's why this issue's happening."

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 04:20 PM

Even the Russian Ground forces is spinning the killed Russian airborne types.

#Russia's dep Defence Min Pankov dismisses info on RU troops in UA, says #Pskov division earned decorations in WWII
pic.twitter.com/RBG7Vh6vR9

AND it seems like "old Russians" do not like the "New Russians" coming to Russia as refugees---kind of a propaganda killer.

Window on Eurasia: Nearly Half of Russians Want to Send Refugees from Ukraine Back, New Poll Shows

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2014/09/window-on-eurasia-nearly-half-of.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 04:22 PM

There are more and more articles on Muslim issues in Russia and the rising tensions with them.

Window on Eurasia: Could the Muslims of Kaliningrad Trigger a Maidan in the Russian Exclave?

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2014/09/window-on-eurasia-could-muslims-of.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 05:13 PM

There is a number of reports out of the Putin far right inner circle who keep referring to the ability of Russia to "act like NATO did in Kosovo".

Then this today which will set the stage for a potential full invasion of all of the Ukraine in order to "protect Russian citizens from genocide".

Notice Putin did not accidently tell the Ukrainian President he could be in Kiev in two weeks.

Bad news. Russia opens criminal probe into "genocide of Russian-speaking population" in eastern Ukraine.

http://www.sledcom.ru/actual/417477/

More on the "genocide".

Russia's investigative committee opens case of "genocide" of Russian speakers in #Ukraine. Putin didn't joke when he spoke highly of Goering.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 05:59 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 06:14 PM

Appears there are no ultra rightists/nationalists, neo Nazi's, or "fascists" in all of Russia these days.

While there are eight different "Russian fascist" mercenary groups alone fighting in the eastern Ukraine.

From RIA today:

STRASBOURG, September 29 (RIA Novosti) – Neo-fascist organizations should not be allowed to function in the modern world as they were deemed criminal following the Nuremberg process, Russian lawmaker Olga Kazakova said in an interview with RIA Novosti Monday.

“Neo-fascism is not a phantom, but there are concrete facts proving the crimes of neo-fascist organizations,” the lawmaker told RIA Novosti on the sidelines of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) fall session in Strasbourg.

"In my address [tomorrow] I will call to talk about the organizations that exist today – Waffen-SS Veterans, Galician movement that is raising the head now and is not ashamed of speaking about their right to exist, and under the cover of rhetoric try to walk away from historical crimes," Kazakova said.

Olga Kazakova is the only representative from Russia present at the fall session of the PACE.

The Russian delegation has skipped the ongoing PACE session due to the split with the West, after the assembly agreed in April to curb Russia voting rights following the conflict in Ukraine and Crimea's reunification with Russia. In spring, Moscow officially informed the PACE about its decision to halt bilateral cooperation and bowed out of the summer session.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2014, 06:22 PM

More on the Russian Duma rep demanding Ft Ross and Alaska back---since the Putin Doctrine fits both locations.

Russian Duma Deputy Wants California and Alaska Back

Paul Goble September 29, 2014

Staunton, September 26 – Mikhail Degtyarev, a LDPR Duma deputy, has asked the Russian foreign ministry to clarify the status of land that had belonged to Russia in what is now the US state of California because he believes that Washington did not pay for it as required by a nineteenth century bilateral agreement.

As a result, Degtaryev is quoted by Izvestiya September 26 as saying, “Russia as before has the basis to consider the territory of Fort Ross its own” and to seek either compensation via international courts or the return of that land to Russian control. In that event, he says, Moscow should install Russian missiles there.

The LDPR deputy said that after Moscow examined the details of the 1841 sale of Fort Ross to the United States, it would need to focus on the issue of Russia’s subsequent sale of Alaska to the US in order to find out whether the Americans lived up to that bargain as well. If not, then he said, Russia should seek compensation or the return of its property.

Degtaryev is a member of Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party and like him has a reputation for outrageous statements which nonetheless sometimes capture the mood of Russians. In the past, the deputy has threatened Japan for its questioning of Russian sovereignty over the Kuriles, called for declaring the ruble an international reserve currency, and suggested putting pictures of Russian heroes in Russian passports.

Nonetheless, Degtaryev has received some support: Maksim Suraykin, the head of the marginal Communists of Russia party, says that Moscow must investigate the details of these long-ago sales because there is no “statute of limitations” in such cases. And the Russian Foreign Ministry has promised that it will get back to the deputy within 30 days.

But most reaction to Degtaryev’s latest outburst has been dismissive of him and it if not of the Russian environment that allows such things to surface with increasing frequency. In reporting the Izvestiya story, Anatoly Baranov, the editor of ForumMSK.org, said that it was easy to see why the LDPR deputy could think he is in the right.

After all, he notes, the center of San Francisco is even now called “Russian Hill” and thus it is clear that “California is an inalienable part of ‘the Russian world’” given how Moscow now defines it. “True, there is the US Third Fleet, but what kind of an obstacle is that to our strategists?”.

But there is a bigger problem, Baranov says. “It is difficult to explain to world public opinion that the LDPR in Russia is viewed not very seriously … For the rest of the world, it is a solid parliamentary party, the leader of which the great Pu has called the greatest Russian politician along with Zyuganov.”

Consequently, the ForumMSK.org editor says, “headlines in the world media like ‘The State Duma begins the process of the annexation of California’ or ‘”Polite people’ are preparing to attack the US’ will be completely justified.”

kaur

09-29-2014, 08:59 PM

Outlaw

42% of Russians believe reports Russian troops were killed in Ukraine

According to survey half of those 42% think, that those Russian troops went there as volunteers and independently without orders.

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 08:17 AM

and the Battle ceasefire continues on with not a word from the US and or NATO and or the EU.

But the world press is full of IS and again since I checked the IS has not a single nuclear weapon and or operational chemical weapons---strange that when central Europe is seriously threatened militarily not a word comes out of the White House other "than there will not be a war between the Ukraine and Russia".

I would actually abject to that since for the US an "invasion" is "an incursion" and the following types of Russia tactical missile units being brought into the GDR in the COLD War days would have "triggered" a massive response.

In typical western fashion "we have a negotiated ceasefire and they are talking" so that is a good thing so we all can go to bed now and forget about it.

But the following below seems to confirm a totally different Russian response.

A second comment---why is it in the Ukrainian events the social media seems to be better informed and publishes faster and more accurately than the entire western media?---and for that matter why is the US intel community so still and silent on Russian moves and relies on the social media to at least try to keep up with the Russian military moves? Heck they are even faster at reporting what is ongoing in the bombing campaign than the entire US media.

BREAKING It's evidently vivid #Russian army has now Iskander-M in the theatre of battle despite sitting 5 km @ #Ukraine border.

BREAKING #Russian army has brought fr #Krasnodon to #Ukraine border 1st rocket brigade which has SMERCH, Tochka-U &, tadaa!, Iskander-M!!

BREAKING #Russian army has brought to #Pterovka, #Rostov oblast, Matveevo-Kurgan three well guarded Tactical Operational Missile Complexes.

Seems the OSCE SMM teams are trying to get the Russian shellings to stop by placing themselves in the target areas---not a good move health wise as no one right now has any control of these artillery and MRLS units.

The #OSCE monitors are still in #Donetsk airport. Can't say are they suicidal or will it stop #Russians. Some attempts but nothing serious.

The Tulip mortars along w 3 #Russian tanks were destroyed on Sept 28 #Donetsk airport attack. On top of that over 50 terrorists killed.

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 08:21 AM

And more on the "European neo Nazi's fighting for Russia in the Ukraine";

Pro-#Russia/#Putin volunteers from #France, who fight in #Donbas against #Ukraine doing the Quenelle #nazi-salute:

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 09:56 AM

kaur--IMO Russia is in a "death race" right now and Putin has no way out--meaning the economy is tanking far faster than he or his advisors ever thought possible-which proves to a degree my comments concerning the Russian economy being a rather complex Ponzi scheme--again they are victims of their own propaganda--if we look how the western countries have been rather slow in their economic recoveries Russian economic decline/inflation will take upwards of 5-7 years to cycle through. The common man in the street will not take that for long.

Thus the extreme urgency to wrap up the eastern Ukraine military campaign and get the sanctions off his back thus the proposed to the US "Reset 2.0", or the back to business as usual Russian approach.

The problem is none and or extremely few of the Minsk 1 and 2 ceasefire agreements have been implemented and or completed. Even the POW exchanges which were scheduled for all of two days are even lose to being complete-there are over 1300 missing/captured civilians that the mercenaries are refusing to deal with-Russian has limited control over the mercenaries right now as seen by the constant shelling which is also being conducted by Russian artillery troops as well.

AND Merkel stated yesterday the sanctions are remaining in place as she no longer trusts Putin based on his lying to her a number of times in the run up to the Ukraine invasion--that single mistake cost Putin his edge with Germany.

From RIA today:

BRUSSELS, September 30 (RIA Novosti) – The Permanent Representatives Committee of the European Union (Coreper) is expected to meet Tuesday to review the implementation of the ceasefire regime in Ukraine.

On September 30, the committee is expected to review the implementation of the peace plan in Ukraine based on the assessment made by the European External Action Service (EEAS). Depending on the results of the review, the European Commission and the EEAS could propose to amend, suspend or lift sanctions imposed on Russia.

European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said earlier this month that the European Union has "always stressed the reversibility and scalability of our restrictive measures."

On September 25, the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, comprising Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union High Representative, said the economic sanctions against Russia could be lifted if the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine holds.

The European Union, alongside the United States, has introduced several rounds of sanctions against Russia over its alleged involvement in the Ukrainian crisis, an allegation Moscow has denied. The latest batch of sanctions targeted Russian energy and defense companies.

On September 28, Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that ultimatums and threats from the West was an inefficient way of communicating with Russia, a country open to cooperation. Moscow also said that sanctions were a threat to international peace and stability and contradicted the principles of international law.

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 10:21 AM

Still am amazed that the Russian FM "believes" the sanctions could be "lifted" as the ceasefire is "holding".

Especially after this today-this particular town is critical to be controlled by the UA going into the winter timeframe.

#BREAKINGNEWS RUSSIAN IVASION FORCES FIRE MLRS FROM PERVOMAISK AT Ukr. #POPASNA, HITTING SCHOOL AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS. DEAD AND WOUNDED.

Reports:The entire city center is heavily hit.This includes a hospital.No figures on dead and wounded yet as emergency services are affected

#FirstPictures from #Popasna after Rus #Grads.
School + kindergarden damaged, medical aid center's car park
hit pic.twitter.com/0FzJni9ZDi

So Russia "really" thinks the alleged ceasefire is holding and the sanctions will be coming off?

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 10:34 AM

There is a topic worth watching and commenting on--the apparent failure of the OSCE to effectively monitor the "alleged ceasefire" and remember it was Russia that pushed the OSCE to be the monitors of the "alleged ceasefire".

Many EU members have openly complained that the OSCE is pro Russian in the past years as they never held Russia to the disarmament regulation as they held EU countries to.

As of today 30 Sept--OSCE has promised to bring in a large number of drones to oversee the area---has not happened even though they were to be there 10 days ago.

On days with heavy shellings of UA positions--the OSCE SMM reports are barely one sentence in length and mention they "heard" some shellings in the "distance".

THEN this today.

#Luhansk oblast admin: @OSCE_SMM refuses to assume its responsibilities. Ukr. intel tells them where Rus. artillery is and they don't go.

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 10:43 AM

Some writers are already seeing what I have been mentioning here a number of times---has in fact Putin "fought his way into a corner" in his use of the Russian "fascist" groups---or better yet did he want/encourage them to go to the Ukraine to be wiped out and no longer a threat to him and Russia?---an interesting FT article on the topic.

Shevtsova on Novorossia heroes; potential danger to Kremlin: "They are welcome in the motherland, but only in coffins"

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8d0978d6-3a9f-11e4-bd08-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3EjPPiILx …

kaur

09-30-2014, 01:30 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 01:31 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 01:44 PM

Seems that the Ukrainian counter battery fire is vastly improving simply due to practice and or someone/something is helping out.

Today the Donetsk mercenary D30 batteries firing on the airport were evidently completely destroyed while hiding and firing from a strictly civilian area of Donetsk.

Here, in #Donetsk, Putylivska Roshcha street, aiming the airport the D-30 battery met its end.

Vata is now disoriented. Can't get a clue. Suspect NATO delivered smth substantial. Blame them on direct hit to a D-30 battery.Vata это vata

OK. Just moments ago #Russian terrorists lost a D-30 howitzer battery w munition in #Donetsk. Can't tell how they were located and destroyed

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 02:00 PM

It is appearing more and more that the Donetsk airport battle is developing into a pivotal battle.

In the initial fighting to gain control of the airport the UA massively beat up on the Cossacks who took over 300 in losses and the UA has controlled it since then.

It is strategic in the fact that if they can hold it the "ceasefire buffer" sees a 30km zone from where ever the UA is sitting thus pushing all heavy mercenary artillery and MRLs out of the city Donetsk.

It appears that the UA is improving their counter battery fire and are getting reinforcements into the airport on a daily basis and the mercenaries are making little to no headway and losing tanks in ever increasing numbers (2-4 per attack) as they attempt multiple ground attacks.

Ukraine has not given up on airport yet. Mortars, grad, etc going both ways non-stop, rebels say they've got 80% (same yesterday,day before, the day before)

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 02:39 PM

Seems the Russia SF/GRU teams inside the Ukraine have caught the attention of the web especially the team that was killed in the last days.

North Caucasus, Russian interior (Vityaz) troops kill 10,000 fighters in 15 years (RIA 23 Sep)

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140923/1025263743.html …

Also Russian 15th Inde Motorized Rifle Brigade Peacekeeping Forces (MC) Samara disguised and Vityaz Battalion of LPR

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/21/how-russian-professional-military-in-ukraine-disguise-themselves-as-separatists/ …

Russian Interior Ministry (MVD) detachment "Vityaz" consists of volunteers for "special purposes" inside Ukraine.

BIG implication of MVD "Vityaz" spetsnaz (veterans) deployed INSIDE Ukraine = to ensure INTERNAL security of Russia!

Russian special forces "Vityaz" (Витязь) terrorist training camp, Oct 2012 (photos)

http://www.vestnik-rm.ru/news-4-2814.htm #Ukraine

Steven Seagal visited "Vityaz" Russian special forces vets mercenary training center Apr 2013

http://www.ridus.ru/news/80943

RU MVD spetsnaz Vityaz vets/mercenaries in UKR http://kb-vityaz.com/ http://center-vityaz.com/ http://osn.bkb-vityaz.ru

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 02:41 PM

Outlaw, I'm very sceptical about those veterans abilty to stir problems. Did Transnistria guys stir problems, what about Chechen veterans, Barkashov organisation etc. What about all those Russian officers, who retreated from former Soviet Union territory? Kremlin will devide them and play with them. If they have resources and will to play.

kaur--might answer your question.

BIG implication of MVD "Vityaz" spetsnaz (veterans) deployed INSIDE Ukraine = to ensure INTERNAL security of Russia!

Russian special forces "Vityaz" (Витязь) terrorist training camp, Oct 2012 (photos)

http://www.vestnik-rm.ru/news-4-2814.htm #Ukraine

Steven Seagal visited "Vityaz" Russian special forces vets mercenary training center Apr 2013

http://www.ridus.ru/news/80943

RU MVD spetsnaz Vityaz vets/mercenaries in UKR
http://kb-vityaz.com/
http://center-vityaz.com/
http://osn.bkb-vityaz.ru

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 04:44 PM

Another good open source intel project by the social media by the group in Holland depicting the mercenary shellings of the Donetsk airport even though they signed the Minsk 1 "ceasefire" agreements---so much for "so called negotiations".

Several (geolocated) videos of Terrorussians ignoring ceasefire and attacking Donetsk airport.
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/09/russian-attacks-on-donetsk-airport.html …
pic.twitter.com/8qRuGNi08T

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 04:58 PM

BREAKING @ 13:20 #Russian army via #Izvarino BGCP brought a major column of APCs to #Ukraine stretching over 3 kilometres

And the ''alleged successful Minks negotiated ceasefire" build up by Russian troops and equipment still continues even though the Russian troops are suppose to be going the other direction based on the agreements.

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 05:18 PM

It appears the Russian media and government in their attempt to create a "genocide" story in eastern Ukraine is tending to ignore as usual the truth as even reported by OSCE.

Notice the info war interplay between the mercenary stories, the Russian media outlets, RIA/ITAS and the Russian FM to "create" a news cycle on the "alleged Ukrainian genocide on Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine".

AND not a single pushback by western media--sad.

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Atrocities; Media Distorts OSCE Report
11:23 (GMT)

This is a cross-post from our Russia This Week blog:

Mass graves found outside of Donetsk by Russian-backed separatists of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" last week have provided an occasion for the Russian government to accuse the Ukrainian government of war atrocities.

This weekend a mass rally was staged in Moscow on this theme titled "Donetsk: Innocents Murdered" at the World War II monument Poklonnaya Gora. Today Russia's Investigative Committee announced an investigation into "genocide" of Russians in southeastern Ukraine, BBC Russia's Service reported.

On 24 September, ITAR-TASS ran a news article titled "Russian Foreign Ministry Believes Mass Graves Outside Donetsk Were at the Hands of Ukrainian Forces" (excerpt translated by The Interpreter)

Speaking at a session of the UN Commission on Human Rights, Amb. Aleksey Borodavkin, Russia's envoy to Geneva, claimed that graves discovered near Donetsk contained "bodies of executed civilians on the territory of Donetsk region which was controlled by the Ukrainian forces. This war crime appears to be precisely at their hand. We will closely follow the assurances of the Ukrainian leadership about the investigation of all these rights violations."

Borodavkin said that bodies found at the Kommunar Coal Mine No. 22 were determined by forensics experts to be killed by a shot to the head.

ITAR-TASS said the Russian ambassador claimed the territory was under the control of Ukrainian forces and the Aidar Battalion of the National Guard.

The claims appear to involve distortions of a review of the scene of the mass graves by OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, and even an admission by Aleksandr Zakharchekno, prime minister of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic," that some of the victims are Ukrainian soldiers.

The report by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission dated 24 September in fact stated the following:

The ‘military police’ of ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (‘DPR’) told the SMM that three unmarked graves allegedly containing multiple bodies had been found; two of them were located in a coal mine Komunar near the village Nyzhnia Krynka (35km north-east of Donetsk) and one inside the village. The SMM proceeded to the scene and saw in the coal mine two areas located fifty metres apart, each containing two human bodies. All four corpses were in the process of decomposition. The SMM also saw eight 9mm Makarov pistol cartridges approximately five meters away from the bodies. Near the road on the edge of the village, the SMM observed a pile of earth resembling a grave which had a stick with a plaque, written in Russian and containing the names (or in one case – initials) of five individuals. The plaque indicated that the individuals died on 27.08.2014. On top of the plaque there was another inscription saying: ‘Died for Putin’s lies’. Neither in the coal mine nor in the village did the SMM see any forensic experts. COMMENT: The SMM cannot provide a forensic assessment of the sites.

The Russian state media has failed to explain when and by whom the forensic examination was done; OSCE notes that they neither performed one themselves (which is not in their mandate) nor did they see any at the time. The Russian version also kept out mention of the sign on the grave or the exact total of victims.

Meanwhile, Russia media have run a number of stories citing separatists' claims of "about 40 bodies found" in the graves in Nizhnyaya Krynka (known as Nyzhnia Kyrnka in Ukrainian), although the OSCE report indicates a total of 9 were found. As Moskovsky Komsomolets reported:

"Three graves have been found, in one of there are the bodies of civilians, they discovered about 40 there, and in two others, the bodies of militia POWs and Ukrainian soldiers," Aleksandr Zakharchenko, prime minister of the self-proclaimed DPR, noting that this territory was under the control of Ukrainian forces for a long time.

RIA Novosti reported on September 25 that Zakharchenko told Russkaya Sluzhba Novosti which originally covered his remarks, "the exact number of mass graves are not known" in three mass graves although he estimated about 40. He said some of the bodies were found without their internal organs.

The Foreign Ministry announced last week that they will attempt to involve the UN, Council of Europe, OSCE and human rights organizations in the investigation of the Donetsk graves. Russian human rights commissioner Konstantin Dolgov also claimed that the territory was under control of the National Guard, which he said pointed to the perpetrators. Dolgov accused the West of "double standards" in seeming to ignore Ukrainian atrocities, although the allegations against Aidar involving documentation of 3 cases have been covered by in detail by Amnesty International andWestern journalists.

The Russian campaign against alleged Ukrainian atrocities may be an effort to distract from other mass graves of 14 victims of Russian-backed separatists found in Slavyansk, some said to be executed on orders of Col. Igor Strelkov, including four Protestant church members who were kidnapped and murdered. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights documented 812 kidnappings by separatists, some of whom were missing, in a July report.

OUTLAW 09

09-30-2014, 05:26 PM

The whole western media seems so focused on the IS and even the White House is as well and yet not a single word out of the White House on this.

Not even a short press conference to point it out--nothing, nada, nichts---it seems IS rules the world--has the soft power approach of the WH now caused them to loss their voices in Europe?

BUT at least NATO is stepping up and stating the oblivious.

While everyone "celebrated" the so called Minsk 1 and 2 agreements as being successful?---Russia and their mercenaries have not held to a single point they signed which is then basically a total failure to a normal person on the street.

Ukraine Liveblog: NATO Says Russian Troops Remain In Ukraine Despite Pullback
http://bit.ly/1qRQV6b

NATO Says Russian Troops Remain In Ukraine Despite Pullback

15:47 (GMT)

There is no denying that the fighting in Ukraine is significantly lessened since the signing of a ceasefire agreement. However, while eastern Ukraine could be considered a frozen conflict like so many Russian conflicts before it, there is still fighting ongoing. Lessened fighting has likely reduced the need for large numbers of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, but many Russian troops remain in Ukrainian territory, according to NATO.

RFE/RL reports:

Russia still has hundreds of troops in Ukraine despite a "significant" force withdrawal made since Kiev and pro-Russian rebels agreed a cease-fire earlier this month, NATO said Tuesday.

After the pullback, "hundreds of Russian troops, including special forces, still remain inside Ukraine," NATO spokesman Jay Janzen said, adding that no further reduction had been seen in the past week and that some 20,000 soldiers were still deployed near the Ukrainian border.