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OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 05:39 PM
Many call the current situation a "frozen conflict" in the eastern Ukraine---IMO it is not "frozen" at all as the fighting levels while a tad lower are still as intense as they were when the Russians decided to march in or what the US called an "incursion".

It seems were the UA is directly facing mercenaries they are in fact "winning" and where they are facing "Russians" it is actually becoming a draw in a number of the latest battles especially on the counter SF side. Especially on the counter battery fire side of the shelling attacks.

On the airport side:
Cmndr of #RUS terrorists unit "Somalin" call sign Yalta send regards y'day via #LifeNews today got whacked good.

NSDC: #SBU prevented hijack to #RUS of #Ukraine army Su-24M.On Sept 22 an UKR army aviation squadron 2nd cmndr recruited by RUS was detained

Just in. #Donetks, #Ukraine. #Russian army 6 canines & two K-9s are now packed to be shipped back to #Russia as cargo-200.

Dogs are primarily used by Russian GRU and SF teams at an average of one max two per team. So if they were killed then the Ukrainian counter SF/GRU campaign is being quite successful. Which means either 4 or 8 killed GRU/SF teams in the last week or so.

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 05:48 PM
Appears as if the Ukrainian SF active UW war against Russian LOCs is slowly becoming successful.

Another confirmation that this is not a "frozen conflict".

First photo confirmation of Russian LOC attacks.

Battalion "Sich" destroyed this #Russian army trailer on Sept 30.

pic.twitter.com/gWuo0XbTYm

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 05:54 PM
The Putin "death race" meaning completing the eastern Ukraine annexation before his economy crashes has taken another bad turn for him.

Sorry Putin :-) OIL CRASHES
http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-crashes-2014-9 …

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 06:00 PM
And so Russia was not "suckered into eastern Ukraine"?

Appears that in the interim one of the main Ukrainian military problems was getting their equipment out of storage and or basically completely overhauled due to the previous Ukrainian President's deliberate degrading of the Army via corruption and or lack of money.

Now the newest heavy weapons especially their own developed heavy tanks/artillery are starting to flow towards the Donbas.

The anti terrorist fighting and now the Russian invasion has actually given the Ukrainian Army a chance to refit/rearm as strange as it sounds and to "stabilize" behind a relatively good set of defense lines.

A lot of the rebuilding work is being done virtually free by the Ukrainian industrial defense companies in support of the Army.

Look what will arrive soon in ATO zone

http://www.ukrinform.ua/ukr/news/na_znishchennya_teroristiv_kinuli_dva_desyatki_gvo zdik_foto_1977039

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 06:16 PM
In order to be a superpower and carry out military adventurism one must be equally an economic superpower.

Right now the Russian "death race" between a successful eastern Ukraine annexation and the total economic collapse during that adventurism is getting extremely tight for Putin and his inner circle.

Russia's currency and stock market have been getting bludgeoned lately, as sanctions and capital outflows have damaged the domestic economy.

And it's getting worse.

Bloomberg reports that Russia is weighing capital controls to stem the rush of outflows from the country. Capital controls are legal limits on how much money you can take out of an economy, a dramatic measure that countries sometimes take to rescue a currency or financial system in the midst of a crisis.

Of course, talking about stemming the rush of outflows only encourages outflows (as people try to get ahead of the restrictions), and so the ruble is tanking on the news.


http://www.businessinsider.com/ruble-falls-2014-9#ixzz3EonumqWr

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 06:40 PM
And Putin's end goal is still the land corridor to Odessa from the Crimea regardless of the so called "New Russia"--NR is the smokescreen nothing more.

Indications that Russia is preparing offensive along south coast towards Crimea. #Mariupol

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/as-winter-nears-in-ukraine-will-moscow-attempt-another-strategic-invasion …

pic.twitter.com/zt9qTXy0qd

So can we finally bury the myth that negotiations are always the best way forward? For those that do not believe Russia was suckered into eastern Ukraine--the UA has gained time to reposition themselves as the Ukrainian government fully understood from the Crimea onwards Russia was coming for the "New Russia"---the question has always been did the West believe them---not really.

It has always been the Ukrainians pointing to the land corridor from Odessa to the Crimea---not the West--so if you know you are on the losing side--what do you do to at least balance the odds--take the fight to the separatists fully knowing Russian will come in and then fight as well as you can---get a ceasefire to rearm and reposition for what is then coming---which is exactly what the Ukrainians have done whether one thinks the Russians were not suckered in---they were and it was simple to do.

Taken from the article:

But the relative calm in Ukraine may be short-lived, according to Ukrainian analysts who say that approach of winter is sharpening Russia’s strategic interest in launching a new invasion—this time to establish a badly needed overland corridor to supply food, fuel and even water to its newly annexed territory of Crimea. Russia’s combine of regular and proxy forces is poised for such an assault along the 225 miles (375 kilometers) of Ukraine’s southern coast.

Russia’s interest in that advance may be signaled by continued shelling during the three-week cease-fire of Ukrainian forces defending their main stronghold along that route—the city of Mariupol, said Nikolay Vorobyov, a Ukrainian journalist covering the war in the south. Also, “small groups of guerrillas are attacking along the roads to Mariupol, trying to destroy any military vehicle that drives toward the city,” Vorobyov said in a telephone interview from Kyiv.

Russia now can supply Crimea only by air, or by sea, mainly via overburdened ferries that cross to the peninsula’s eastern tip, at the city of Kerch. Several Ukrainian military analysts say that wintertime supplies for Crimea are such a massive challenge that a new Russian invasion along the Sea of Azov coastline is inevitable.

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 06:56 PM
And Putin's end goal is still the land corridor to Odessa from the Crimea regardless of the so called "New Russia"--NR is the smokescreen nothing more.

Indications that Russia is preparing offensive along south coast towards Crimea. #Mariupol

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/as-winter-nears-in-ukraine-will-moscow-attempt-another-strategic-invasion …

pic.twitter.com/zt9qTXy0qd

So can we finally bury the myth that negotiations are always the best way forward? For those that do not believe Russia was suckered into eastern Ukraine--the UA has gained time to reposition themselves as the Ukrainian government fully understood from the Crimea onwards Russia was coming for the "New Russia"---the question has always been did the West believe them---not really.

It has always been the Ukrainians pointing to the land corridor from Odessa to the Crimea---not the West--so if you know you are on the losing side--what do you do to at least balance the odds--take the fight to the separatists fully knowing Russian will come in and then fight as well as you can---get a ceasefire to rearm and reposition for what is then coming---which is exactly what the Ukrainians have done whether one thinks the Russians were not suckered in---they were and it was simple to do.

Taken from the article:

But the relative calm in Ukraine may be short-lived, according to Ukrainian analysts who say that approach of winter is sharpening Russia’s strategic interest in launching a new invasion—this time to establish a badly needed overland corridor to supply food, fuel and even water to its newly annexed territory of Crimea. Russia’s combine of regular and proxy forces is poised for such an assault along the 225 miles (375 kilometers) of Ukraine’s southern coast.

Russia’s interest in that advance may be signaled by continued shelling during the three-week cease-fire of Ukrainian forces defending their main stronghold along that route—the city of Mariupol, said Nikolay Vorobyov, a Ukrainian journalist covering the war in the south. Also, “small groups of guerrillas are attacking along the roads to Mariupol, trying to destroy any military vehicle that drives toward the city,” Vorobyov said in a telephone interview from Kyiv.

Russia now can supply Crimea only by air, or by sea, mainly via overburdened ferries that cross to the peninsula’s eastern tip, at the city of Kerch. Several Ukrainian military analysts say that wintertime supplies for Crimea are such a massive challenge that a new Russian invasion along the Sea of Azov coastline is inevitable.

Examples of Russian military preparations for the land invasion towards Odessa:

1. a confirmed movement of Russian tactical missile brigades into the Crimea area next to the border towards Maiupol in the last few days

AND now-

2. the confirmed deployed of the top of the line AD system S400 in the same area

S-400 Triumf air defense regiment taken up combat duty near Russian city of Krasnodar
http://bit.ly/YHOX1K
pic.twitter.com/QdNAcgxVPZ

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 08:16 PM
The Putin Doctrine will never stop regardless of his own troops loses, or the collapsing economy due to sanctions until some country or countries steps up and forcefully says enough is enough and is willing to indicate the use of force if necessary.

BREAKING: RUSSIA WARNS LATVIA OF "UNFORTUNATE CONSEQUENCES" DUE TO DISCRIMINATION OF RUSSIAN MINORITY

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/in-latvia-fresh-fears-of-aggression-as-kremlin-warns-about-russian-minorities

#Estonia’s president: #Russia is threatening ‘the entire post-World War II order’

http://wapo.st/1rxYCmN

For some commenters here--there are times when in fact the serious threat of the use of force just a tad short of war---really gets attention---that use to be the "game" when the US had ground power in Europe---up the level of alert status and the Soviets got the message--the Soviets played the "game" as well in reverse.

Since the Wall came down the "game" has been unused and there is no longer US ground force power in Europe and Putin is home free as a bird.

Here we go again and this time NATO/EU and the US are playing for second place as Putin can make all the moves he wants to and the West is forced to react.

NSDC: #Russia placed fresh troops on #Ukraine border near #Rostov, launched drones
http://www.5.ua/component/k2/item/395014-rosiia-stiahuie-novi-viiskovi-pidrozdily-do-kordonu-z-ukrainoiu-i-prodovzhuie-rozvidku-rnbo …

OUTLAW 09
09-30-2014, 08:32 PM
Open source strikes again---there have been a large number of battle videos from the mercenary side showing some fighters having white tape strips on their battle dress-especially some fighters involved in the Donetsk airport fighting.

Now we know the reason for the white tape usage.

Thanks for keeping it so simple invaders!
White arm band = regular soldier
No arm band = mercenary/brainwashed local

pic.twitter.com/gYSoxmHOYH

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 11:52 AM
In order to be a superpower and carry out military adventurism one must be equally an economic superpower.

Right now the Russian "death race" between a successful eastern Ukraine annexation and the total economic collapse during that adventurism is getting extremely tight for Putin and his inner circle.

Russia's currency and stock market have been getting bludgeoned lately, as sanctions and capital outflows have damaged the domestic economy.

And it's getting worse.

Bloomberg reports that Russia is weighing capital controls to stem the rush of outflows from the country. Capital controls are legal limits on how much money you can take out of an economy, a dramatic measure that countries sometimes take to rescue a currency or financial system in the midst of a crisis.

Of course, talking about stemming the rush of outflows only encourages outflows (as people try to get ahead of the restrictions), and so the ruble is tanking on the news.


http://www.businessinsider.com/ruble-falls-2014-9#ixzz3EonumqWr

The Russian "death race" is rapidly becoming a "swan dive" into total collapse.

The entire Russia superpower thing in their head can and must be based on finance power as well---this is what got them into trouble when the Soviet Union crashed--they tried to keep up with the US arms race but did not have the money to sustain a arms race and collapsed.

A large bulk of the Russian economy is built on oil and gas cash flows and the price of West Texas oil totally crashed yesterday thus a slow "swan dive" and who will win the "death race"---the Ukrainians and or the Russians.

Russian crude will head down today as well as will the cash flow that Russia so urgently needs to keep going in the eastern Ukraine and to support the Crime annexation costs.

And the price of oil just keeps falling and falling even though OPEC oil production is climbing. West Texas pricing went under 91 USD and settled finally in the low 94 range at the end of the day with further sinkings for today.

IMO OPEC is driving up production to just get the same amount of USDs as before just doing it with more oil--and there is a weak demand coming out of china that is not helping.

Will be interesting to see how the Russian stock market takes this news today and the rest of the week.

A report from Reuters that OPEC had increased its output to a level not seen in nearly two years, combined with a stronger dollar, torched crude prices following the report. OPEC produced nearly 31 million barrels of crude per day in September, according to Reuters, up from 30.15 million barrels in August.

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 12:10 PM
The Russia military has been trying for days to start the narrative that the Ukrainians are committing "genocide" on the Russian speakers in both their FM press releases and in the general Russian media--then along comes their own mercenaries who are in fact "caught" committing "genocide" on their own civilians at the same time they are "blaming the Ukrainians---similar problem with the MH17 shot down.

A video came out showing the "alleged" Ukrainian shelling of a civilian bus with "civilian losses"---then it was pulled when the mercenaries "realized" it showed they were responsibly for the shelling.

From today's bus shelling in Donetsk.

Former video of Oct 1 D-30 shell hit on bus in #Doentsk was removed as the Vata who posted it realized it's them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZs24WnmGIs …

A shell hits a bus stop in #Donetsk killing 8 - pic via @ostro_v pic.twitter.com/qt9BRDiM89

NOT only did the shellings hit a bus but also a school and it was not a D30 but BM27s which Russia has supplied in large numbers to the mercenaries.

Oh god it seems the illiterate molluscs in #Dontesk on Oct 1 aimed @ 20,5km the airport, hit the bus on Kiev blvrd. https://twitter.com/CTPeLEC/status/517239801087807489 …

#Russian_Massacre in #Donetsk.
Impact angle of BM-27 shell proves, fire came from the south.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_PtGGNetH4 …
pic.twitter.com/zBCCwEjqap

#Russia|ns shelled school and public bus in #Donetsk: 10 people killed, 9 injured
http://donpress.com/news/01-10-2014-snaryady-dnr-v-donecke-popali-v-shkolu-i-marshrutku …

AND the Russia main media RIA starts immediately the "genocide" drumbeat after the shelling even though the video used to depict the "alleged Ukrainians has been pulled from the net.

From RIA today:

MOSCOW, October 1 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian forces are intentionally firing at residential areas that have led to the deaths of several civilians, the deputy prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic said on Rossiya-24 television Wednesday.

“Rocket launchers are being fired from 40 kilometers away, which is intentional strikes at residential areas from a distance,” Donetsk Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Purgin said.

AND the "genocide" drumbeat just keeps getting louder by the Russian FM:

From RIA today---notice the Russian FM does not mention the simple fact that where the "alleged" grave sites" are --all were in mercenary occupied areas not under control of Kiev AND the OSCE has failed to confirm more than four sites with a total of 8 bodies NOT the 800 the FM is talking about.

A nice coupling of info war to military ground activities.

MOSCOW, October 1 (RIA Novosti) – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that more than 400 bodies have been discovered in mass graves near the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

“This is obviously a war crime. Already more than 400 bodies have been discovered in [mass] graves outside Donetsk and we hope that western capitals will not hush up these facts [because] they’re horrific,” Lavrov said.

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 12:20 PM
The Russians have been extremely efficient in using info war in support of their military activities in the eastern Ukraine.

Just more examples of the total misuse of old video footages and "so called experts" in articles carried by Russian media.

Russian REN TV website uses #mh17 crash pictures to illustrate 'mass grave' stories

http://bbc.in/1uwUJ49

OSCE just confirmed that a pro-Rus Latvian activist widely cited by Russian media as an “OSCE expert” has “no link whatsoever” to the OSCE

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 12:41 PM
Another in the long line of small indicators that the Russian military and Putin are seriously contemplating the military move towards Odessa for a land corridor to the Crimea.

Move will probably be around the Oct 14th timeframe when the Kiev Parliament takes a vote on repealing their non alignment status which is a given to pass as it is currently election mode for all of the members and who wants to be "pro Russian"?--- and a major red line for Russia as announced in the UN Russian FM speech on 26 Sept.

From Interfax today:
15:01 Russian citizens in Transdniestria will be protected in case of Ukrainian scenario repeat - Rogozin

The statement is so vague that it practically covers all potential ways to go for the Russian military and Putin depending of the ground game they are following.

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 02:56 PM
The Russia military has been trying for days to start the narrative that the Ukrainians are committing "genocide" on the Russian speakers in both their FM press releases and in the general Russian media--then along comes their own mercenaries who are in fact "caught" committing "genocide" on their own civilians at the same time they are "blaming the Ukrainians---similar problem with the MH17 shot down.

A video came out showing the "alleged" Ukrainian shelling of a civilian bus with "civilian losses"---then it was pulled when the mercenaries "realized" it showed they were responsibly for the shelling.

From today's bus shelling in Donetsk.

Former video of Oct 1 D-30 shell hit on bus in #Doentsk was removed as the Vata who posted it realized it's them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZs24WnmGIs …

A shell hits a bus stop in #Donetsk killing 8 - pic via @ostro_v pic.twitter.com/qt9BRDiM89

NOT only did the shellings hit a bus but also a school and it was not a D30 but BM27s which Russia has supplied in large numbers to the mercenaries.

Oh god it seems the illiterate molluscs in #Dontesk on Oct 1 aimed @ 20,5km the airport, hit the bus on Kiev blvrd. https://twitter.com/CTPeLEC/status/517239801087807489 …

#Russian_Massacre in #Donetsk.
Impact angle of BM-27 shell proves, fire came from the south.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_PtGGNetH4 …
pic.twitter.com/zBCCwEjqap

#Russia|ns shelled school and public bus in #Donetsk: 10 people killed, 9 injured
http://donpress.com/news/01-10-2014-snaryady-dnr-v-donecke-popali-v-shkolu-i-marshrutku …

AND the Russia main media RIA starts immediately the "genocide" drumbeat after the shelling even though the video used to depict the "alleged Ukrainians has been pulled from the net.

From RIA today:

MOSCOW, October 1 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian forces are intentionally firing at residential areas that have led to the deaths of several civilians, the deputy prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic said on Rossiya-24 television Wednesday.

“Rocket launchers are being fired from 40 kilometers away, which is intentional strikes at residential areas from a distance,” Donetsk Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Purgin said.

AND the "genocide" drumbeat just keeps getting louder by the Russian FM:

From RIA today---notice the Russian FM does not mention the simple fact that where the "alleged" grave sites" are --all were in mercenary occupied areas not under control of Kiev AND the OSCE has failed to confirm more than four sites with a total of 8 bodies NOT the 800 the FM is talking about.

A nice coupling of info war to military ground activities.

MOSCOW, October 1 (RIA Novosti) – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that more than 400 bodies have been discovered in mass graves near the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

“This is obviously a war crime. Already more than 400 bodies have been discovered in [mass] graves outside Donetsk and we hope that western capitals will not hush up these facts [because] they’re horrific,” Lavrov said.

And the "genocide" drumbeat goes on by the Russian government against the Ukrainians.

Even in the face of a mercenary released video they themselves pulled off of the net.

Seems that the Russian HR Dolgov has overlooked the countless shelling, MRLS attacks against both civilians and Ukrainian Army positions since the signing of the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements commonly called a "ceasefire"---in the last few days well over 72 shelling attacks within 24 hours and he says nothing about them.

GENEVA, October 1 (RIA Novosti) - Moscow views shelling of a school in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk a blatant violation of international humanitarian law, Russian Foreign Ministry's Special Representative for Human Rights Konstantin Dolgov told RIA Novosti Wednesday.

"The particular cynicism of this shelling is the very fact that today was the children's first day at school. And on this day, artillery directly targets them. These are blatant, intolerable things," Dolgov said.

He emphasized that these actions are grave violations of international humanitarian law that take place at the moment when "there are real prerequisites for a political settlement."

"Shelling is going on, despite the announced ceasefire, which is a blatant violation. Civilians are still being killed. This situation is absolutely unbearable. We insist that all crimes against civilians should be systematized and an independent international investigation should be launched," special representative for human rights stated.

At least 11 people have been killed in shelling of the school in Donetsk on Wednesday. According to the city council, 70 children were inside the building when firing started. There has been no confirmation from the Ukrainian sources yet.

The Ukrainian government and independence supporters of the country's eastern regions agreed to a ceasefire during the September 5 Contact Group meeting in Minsk. Since the establishment of the ceasefire, the opposing sides have repeatedly accused one another of violating the truce.

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 05:56 PM
An example for those that think "negotiation's" are a way out when in fact sometimes a serious threat of force to divert an invasion would have worked.

A short but interesting video overview on how "ownership" of the Donbas went to Russia during the "ceasefire".

How the situation in #Donbas has changed during the "ceasefire". #Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZMuTxpi4nU …

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 06:57 PM
There has been resurfacing complaints over the last years that the OSCE is "fully" in bed with Russia starting with the non compliance by the OSCE to force Russian compliance on the destruction of over 2000 armored vehicles that Russian initially claimed they needed for their two Chechen wars--many of those same tanks scheduled for destruction are now in eastern Ukraine.

Now the following is what the OSCE committed to for Minsk 1 and 2---over 500 monitors and a large number of drones to oversee the "New Russian" and Russian border regions AND to actively control the Russian/Ukrainian mercenary controlled border crossing points (Minsk 1).

Remember it was Russia that pushed for the inclusion of the OSCE together with Germany.

As of today there has been no mention of this incident in any of the German mainstream media--the German response to this will be interesting to watch.

Especially since it was Russian mercenaries that captured a number of German OSCE members during the initial stages of the eastern Ukraine events.

There has been before this blogger released this set of OSCE SMM photos a "floating" rumor that OSCE was "working closely" with the Russian troops and mercenaries---always "denied by OSCE".

Needless to say as of this evening in Europe---OSCE has been "rather silent" on the photo set.

Especially when the OSCE has stated "there are no Russian troops in eastern Ukraine" and NATO stated otherwise and for some strange reason OLSCE has been unable to identify any shellings coming from Russia troops or mercenaries.

Especially after SMM members are the only "allowed" individuals to be in vehicles plated and used by SMM for their patrols.

It's confirmed in practice #OSCE monitors on #Ukraine positions are doing reconnaissance and relay coordinates to #Russian terrorists.

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/517334658749431811

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/By3xIAKIEAAeVg5.jpg

AmericanPride
10-01-2014, 07:44 PM
Outlaw,

If the Kiev government agreed to the Minsk conditions (i.e. a version of federalization) prior to the start of the Russian intervention, say back in March, what would be your view on it?

AmericanPride
10-01-2014, 07:45 PM
An example for those that think "negotiation's" are a way out when in fact sometimes a serious threat of force to divert an invasion would have worked

What kind of "serious threat of force" would have "worked" to "divert a [Russian] invasion"?

That's also interesting statement since you have more than once recently stated that you believe the Kiev government deliberately enticed Russian to invade Ukraine anyway. Which is it? Are the Ukrainians looking to deter Russia or to "sucker them in" as you put it?

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 08:24 PM
Outlaw,

If the Kiev government agreed to the Minsk conditions (i.e. a version of federalization) prior to the start of the Russian intervention, say back in March, what would be your view on it?

And again we disagree---if you really look at just how the Ukrainians were "defining" the term "federalization" vs just exactly how Russia was "defining" it---the two were on totally different planets--not even in the same galaxy.

Why --and you should know the reason---the Ukrainians fully understand "Russian speak" when the rest of Europe and the US might understand the word "huh"?

Federalization as defined by and exactly what was being demanded by Russia was never to be accepted by the Ukraine as it meant the Ukraine giving up the Maidan and was not going to happen.

And again back to the term---"suckered in" yes or no---if Russia had never entered the Ukraine and remained on the borders do you honestly and fully believe the EU/US would have gone to full sectorial sanctions that are just now massively damaging the Russian economy coupled with a great slide in oil prices that was predicted by a few at the outbreak of the Crimea.

What tipped the EU to go "full in" was in fact the proven deaths of hundreds of Russian airborne troops caught in a kill zone that has not been explained by anyone I currently know in the UA---they were massively ambushed as if the UA knew they would be coming. Do you think the EU would have gone to sectorial sanctions if the Russians had not made the stupid move and called their "troops" on "contract, vacation and or lost"?

Again if you fully understand the Putin "speak" and having watched and been unable to respond as a military to the Crimea---do you again honestly not think the Ukrainian leadership did not see the annexation of the Donbas not coming---they in fact saw it long before we in the West did and they if you go back and reread their comments---we simply did not believe them.

Even you doubted when I said he was going in because he had backed himself into that corner with his own propaganda.

Now Putin is in fact "trapped" in the Donbas---why "trapped" his own propaganda will not allow him to pull out and that propaganda is deeply engrained in the ultra nationalists ie "fasists" who he went into business with.

Secondly, this is not your typical "frozen" environment---it is dynamic and developing every day and there is a very real growing guerrilla war that Russia was not prepared to fight as their UW strategy is focused on offensive power not a constant look over your shoulder thing AND in Georgia and Moldavia it did not go to a guerrilla war. Watch the number of new equipment/troops rolling to the Donbas region and it is building daily as long as the Ukrainians can keep the mercenaries bottled into the current zones and allowing not much more to be lost.

The only thing checking Putin's move to the Odessa land corridor solution is the current tanking Russian economy that cannot take another hit if he goes ahead---not NATO actions not the EU or the US actions---it is now economics pure and simple and the serious threat to an economy that was never as stable as many thought it was AND a really sliding price of a barrel of oil----Ural sour crude is the and was the key from the very beginning and now it is now in play. Putin's "death race" is in full gear---does he want a "military victory" or does he want a financial stable Russia?

Battalion Donbas cmdr: we're setting up training centers all over #Ukraine to prepare to wage a guerrilla war against Russian occupation

By the way--that guerrilla war has already started and is in fact becoming quite good at finding and killing Russian SF/GRU teams.

AP--the Russians really do need a way out--and there is no way out---if you saw the link concerning again the Ukrainian realization that the Donbas is economically not that important much as I had indicated to you.

The Russian way out will in fact be over the Ukrainians not vice versa.

By the way you did notice that 70% of those still remaining in the Donbas will not stay if the separatists remain in control--the original population never did join into the fighting as often complained by Girkin.

So basically Russia/Putin got a "failed state" and that is being "suckered in".

AmericanPride
10-01-2014, 08:55 PM
And again we disagree---if you really look at just how the Ukrainians were "defining" the term "federalization" vs just exactly how Russia was "defining" it---the two were on totally different planets--not even in the same galaxy.

Right. Typically disputants have different positions; hence the dispute. The scope of localized power in the Donbas vis-a-vis the central government is a gap that needed (and still needs) addressing.


Federalization as defined by and exactly what was being demanded by Russia was never to be accepted by the Ukraine as it meant the Ukraine giving up the Maidan and was not going to happen.

But the problem isn't (only) that Russia and Ukraine had different ideas of how to resolve the political discontent in the Donbas with the Maiden events, but also that Ukraine internally and Ukraine and Russia bilaterally had no functioning mechanism to actually resolve these disagreements. When the Maiden seized power and Yanukoyvuch's government collapsed, it took months for officials from the new government and Russia to meet. The absence of communication channels is a major factor in conflict escalation. It took less than a week for Russia to seize Crimea after the fall of Yanukovych, but it wasn't until August that confirmed Russian conventional forces appeared in the Donbass.


And again back to the term---"suckered in" yes or no---if Russia had never entered the Ukraine and remained on the borders do you honestly and fully believe the EU/US would have gone to full sectorial sanctions that are just now massively damaging the Russian economy coupled with a great slide in oil prices that was predicted by a few at the outbreak of the Crimea.

That assumes that the Kiev's intention from the beginning was to convince the U.S. and EU to impose sanctions on Russia. I think the Ukrainian leadership would have rather avoided a Russian invasion and the consequent loss in thousands of lives and billions in property damage.


Again if you fully understand the Putin "speak" and having watched and been unable to respond as a military to the Crimea---do you again honestly not think the Ukrainian leadership did not see the annexation of the Donbas ont coming---they in fact saw it long before we in the West did and they if you go back and reread their comments---we simply did not believe them.

That was also the same time that the Kiev government embarked on a military campaign against (at the time) relatively peaceful separatists who as of May had seized and stopped several UA convoys but did not conduct any significant combat actions. Moscow had been very open during that time that it would increase its commitment to the separatists if they were attacked. Why is anyone surprised by that?


Even you doubted when I said he was going in because he had backed himself into that corner with his own propaganda.

I have never doubted Putin's commitment to the separatists.


Secondly, this is not your typical "frozen" environment---it is dynamic and developing every day and there is a very real growing guerrilla war that Russia was not prepared to fight as their UW strategy is focused on offensive power not a stationary a look over your shoulder AND in Georgia and Moldavia it did not go to a guerrilla war.

In Georgia, that's because Russian tank divisions were only miles from the capital and had essentially bisected the country. Moscow still has not made a comparable commitment in Ukraine. Of course the conflict is not yet "frozen" - there are still many open issues not yet decided; chief of which is the political future of the Donbass.


So basically Russia/Putin got a "failed state" and that is being "suckered in".

"Suckered in" implies intentionality - that the Ukrainians may be happy (you haven't proved this yet) of ridding themselves of the Donbas is at most opportunism. Had Kiev wanted this end-state in the first place, they could have not attempted to suppress the separatism movements back in March and April when they held their referendums and before there was any significant violence. But now you arguing that Kiev instead wanted to not only rid themselves of the baggage, but also to destroy these areas as functional polities - so it seems to me that the Kiev leadership, in your argument, is morally bankrupt as well as complicit in the deaths of several thousand people.

OUTLAW 09
10-01-2014, 09:06 PM
There has been resurfacing complaints over the last years that the OSCE is "fully" in bed with Russia starting with the non compliance by the OSCE to force Russian compliance on the destruction of over 2000 armored vehicles that Russian initially claimed they needed for their two Chechen wars--many of those same tanks scheduled for destruction are now in eastern Ukraine.

Now the following is what the OSCE committed to for Minsk 1 and 2---over 500 monitors and a large number of drones to oversee the "New Russian" and Russian border regions AND to actively control the Russian/Ukrainian mercenary controlled border crossing points (Minsk 1).

Remember it was Russia that pushed for the inclusion of the OSCE together with Germany.

As of today there has been no mention of this incident in any of the German mainstream media--the German response to this will be interesting to watch.

Especially since it was Russian mercenaries that captured a number of German OSCE members during the initial stages of the eastern Ukraine events.

There has been before this blogger released this set of OSCE SMM photos a "floating" rumor that OSCE was "working closely" with the Russian troops and mercenaries---always "denied by OSCE".

Needless to say as of this evening in Europe---OSCE has been "rather silent" on the photo set.

Especially when the OSCE has stated "there are no Russian troops in eastern Ukraine" and NATO stated otherwise and for some strange reason OLSCE has been unable to identify any shellings coming from Russia troops or mercenaries.

Especially after SMM members are the only "allowed" individuals to be in vehicles plated and used by SMM for their patrols.

It's confirmed in practice #OSCE monitors on #Ukraine positions are doing reconnaissance and relay coordinates to #Russian terrorists.

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/517334658749431811

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/By3xIAKIEAAeVg5.jpg

Amazing response by the OSCE referencing them getting caught moving mercenaries in their vehicles.

#BREAKINGNEWS
THE @OSCE_SMM MISSION BLOCKED ME AFTER I UNCOVERED, THEIR PERSONAL TRANPORTS #ARMED_RUSSIAN_MILITANTS IN THEIR VEHICLES.

OUTLAW 09
10-02-2014, 11:00 AM
Notice that after a heavy shelling day of Donetsk hitting a bus and a school with BM27 and D30 fire where the only video released was by the mercenaries who then pulled it off the net and angle analysis of a dud BM27 rocket fully indicate the shelling came from the mercenary side--- you get this "totally different view" offered by Putin himself.

Especially strange statement by him in the light of an open source analysis of one recent mercenary shelling directed fully at civilian targets and geo locating the mercenary firing point by ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

From RIA today---just another rin a long string of "it ain't me" statements from Putin and he somehow still thinks he is being "believed by the West"?:

MOSCOW, October 2 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed the need to exclude the opportunity for the Ukrainian government forces to shell civilians in the country's eastern regions, speaking with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Kremlin said in a press release Thursday.

"V.V. [Vladimir Vladimirovich] Putin has emphasized the need for further prevention of shelling of civilian objects by the Ukrainian [military] units in southeastern Ukraine," the statement reads.

According to the press release, Russian and German leaders also agreed on the importance of sticking to the agreements, reached during the meetings of the Contact Group on Ukraine in Minsk; first and foremost, on the clauses concerning the withdrawal of heavy weapons and the monitoring of the situation by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

On Wednesday, the authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic said the shelling of a school and a public transport stop in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk had killed 11. A representative for a local hospital has told RIA Novosti some 40 had been wounded in the artillery fire. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the shelling.

The stand-off between the Ukrainian government and pro-independence forces of southeastern Ukraine has killed over 3,200 since Kiev launched a military operation in April. The sides agreed on a ceasefire at a meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine held in Minsk on September 5. Another meeting of the group resulted in a memorandum, specifying implementation of a ceasefire, which involves the creation of a 30-kilometer [18-mile] buffer zone, withdrawal of all heave weapons from residential areas and the deployment of the OSCE monitoring mission.

Another social media recorded Russian shelling of civilians from today that flies in the face of what Putin openly "sells":

Incredible footage: (Russian) shell/rocket exploding next to group of civilians in Donetsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qkOD212liI …
pic.twitter.com/oaOku1dmEo

OUTLAW 09
10-02-2014, 11:23 AM
There are two extremely interesting developments that have drifted out in the last several days.

1. evidence is growing with social media photos, videos and SBU voice intercepts that in fact the Berkut Security Police that were firing on and deliberately killing Maidan protestors were in fact a Russian GRU/SF sniper team---IF true then the Russian planned invasion in eastern Ukraine was triggered already in January 2014---FAR earlier than the western media and politicians are willing to accept---AND has absolutely nothing to do with the so called "NATO meddling" that Russian seems to always claim.

Tends to indicate a rather long term Russian planning cycle for the Ukraine---not something that just "suddenly occurred".

2. It now appears the there were two key battles between actual Russian Forces and the Ukrainian Army and Independent BNs during the actual invasion that the US still refuses to accept that might just have changed the "history" of the Russian military move into eastern Ukraine that was targeted to be evidently in Kharkov inside three days thus making the "New Russia" a viable state not the "enclave" it is now.

If not for #Ilovaysk&Savur Mohyla,#Russia's troops would be in #Kharkiv now.They aimed to take #Donetsk,#Luhansk regions in 3 days

If one goes back into the social media side during those battles you will see massive urging by the social media to pull out the UA units that were surrounded but they were ordered to remain and fight as long as they ould which they did do---and actually did well at before going under.

There were as well loud critique of the UA General Staff--begs the "question" did in fact the Ukrainian military and civilian leadership know in advance that he Russiaqn troops were in fact coming and what they mission set was?

This goes to the heart of the idea the Russians were in fact "suckered in".

Note--the Dontesk airport battle is turning into such a pivotal fight---in the last 24-48 hours the Russian troops together with their Russian mercenaries started over 11 major attacks---shellings and ground attacks and were thrown back with losses each time. Appears the UA is well trained, is well armed, and is being reinforced daily.

Big assault there today. Ukrainians have held that place doggedly for months. Not clear how long they can cling on. http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/10/141002_donetsk_airport_fighting …

OUTLAW 09
10-02-2014, 12:40 PM
[QUOTE=AmericanPride;161701]Right. Typically disputants have different positions; hence the dispute. The scope of localized power in the Donbas vis-a-vis the central government is a gap that needed (and still needs) addressing.

Again we differ---having spent way to much time in actual combat environments one tends to "recognize" a tactical trend;

1. explain why the well trained and experienced Russian VDV airborne unit got so badly mauled---did in fact the Ukrainians "know" the Russians were coming and had been prepared for it?

2. explain why there were two specific battles--both the Ukraine lost but it gained tactical time to pull back and hold other locations even in the face of massive social media critique the units were told stand and die if need be to the last bullet and then surrender after equipment destruction which they did---BETTER yet just why were the two locations selected for an Alamo stand?

3. why the subtle indicators of a very serious unspoken guerrilla war being waged now inside the "from Russia controlled territory" which are causing more Russian troop loses that are not being spoken about in western media but the truck loads of dead bodies going back to Russia has now the Russian population attention as per the recent in Moscow 50K plus peace march

4. why are there still four surrounded UA enclaves that are doing just fine even as they are surrounded---inside the Russian controlled "territory"--that until today have not been taken by the Russians or their mercenaries

4. why the apparent in the face of a "weak" UA are they doing very well in the face of a constant combined Russian troop and mercenary attacks on the Dontesk airport.

Does all of that appear to be the concept of an "unprepared Ukrainian Army rolled over during the Russian invasion"--or does it indicate that more is ongoing behind the scenes we non Ukrainian types know nothing about?

Ever seriously watch the good cop bad cop game going on between the Ukrainian President and the Ukrainian PM---well conducted if one asks me--the Russians are fully negatively focused on the PM and view the President to be the best person to deal with--and you think that is not "by chance"?

Come on AP think and analyze events, indicators and multiple sources AND it is open source to all to see and read.

You make this into a moral question and question my rationale--it is all about how a smaller and far militarily weaker country that lives next to a somewhat angry powerful neighbor decides how it is going to survive---I still maintain the current Ukrainian leadership has a strategy and it is using every available tool it has to survive.

In some aspects AP go back and restudy American Revolutionary War articles---did we not do exactly the same thing?

Come on AP think it through and you will see we actually did things similarly in 1776 as the Ukrainians are doing in 2014.

If it means giving up territory to survive knowing it is going to lose it anyway to gain a strong sanctions regime they believe will on the end reign in Putin so be it --if it means using the EU as a leverage point against Putin and to gain economic support so be it--and on and on.

Is that not the same strategy Stalin used as the Germans raced over the SU towards Moscow?

In some aspect the Ukrainians have done something the West was unable to do in Georgia and Moldavia---the lost zone is not in fact "frozen" as many western pundits have feared---the Ukrainians have boxed in the mercenaries and at some point Putin will have to sit down and do a simple math calculation-AT what point will I declare a "victory" and leave or will I be willing to go down in Russian history and be declared the Russian leader who destroyed his own economy in the name of "fascism"?

If he breaks out and heads to Odessa THEN we the West has a serious problem on our hands which is then headed to an open armed conflict that no one can calculate the end state on.

He is not yet at that point---but his "oligarchs" are getting there quickly.

As the comments today by the Serbank SEO indicate--he is blaming openly the government for the business decisions disaster hitting them.

NOTICE AP---it appears that on their on the UA can take on the mercenaries and win---their strategy was to slow down the Russians and box them in and if it means loss of territory to do that then so be it---it is at least a valid survival strategy.

RU cossacks Luhansk obl:Idiots asked why we shoot from resident.areas.We'll fire from every flat or Ukr advances
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uex8Y

OUTLAW 09
10-02-2014, 12:50 PM
Notice that after a heavy shelling day of Donetsk hitting a bus and a school with BM27 and D30 fire where the only video released was by the mercenaries who then pulled it off the net and angle analysis of a dud BM27 rocket fully indicate the shelling came from the mercenary side--- you get this "totally different view" offered by Putin himself.

Especially strange statement by him in the light of an open source analysis of one recent mercenary shelling directed fully at civilian targets and geo locating the mercenary firing point by ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

From RIA today---just another rin a long string of "it ain't me" statements from Putin and he somehow still thinks he is being "believed by the West"?:

MOSCOW, October 2 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed the need to exclude the opportunity for the Ukrainian government forces to shell civilians in the country's eastern regions, speaking with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Kremlin said in a press release Thursday.

"V.V. [Vladimir Vladimirovich] Putin has emphasized the need for further prevention of shelling of civilian objects by the Ukrainian [military] units in southeastern Ukraine," the statement reads.

According to the press release, Russian and German leaders also agreed on the importance of sticking to the agreements, reached during the meetings of the Contact Group on Ukraine in Minsk; first and foremost, on the clauses concerning the withdrawal of heavy weapons and the monitoring of the situation by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

On Wednesday, the authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic said the shelling of a school and a public transport stop in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk had killed 11. A representative for a local hospital has told RIA Novosti some 40 had been wounded in the artillery fire. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the shelling.

The stand-off between the Ukrainian government and pro-independence forces of southeastern Ukraine has killed over 3,200 since Kiev launched a military operation in April. The sides agreed on a ceasefire at a meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine held in Minsk on September 5. Another meeting of the group resulted in a memorandum, specifying implementation of a ceasefire, which involves the creation of a 30-kilometer [18-mile] buffer zone, withdrawal of all heave weapons from residential areas and the deployment of the OSCE monitoring mission.

Another social media recorded Russian shelling of civilians from today that flies in the face of what Putin openly "sells":

Incredible footage: (Russian) shell/rocket exploding next to group of civilians in Donetsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qkOD212liI …
pic.twitter.com/oaOku1dmEo

More on the mercenary use of local civilian shields and buildings that actually may in fact be very accurate and it seems Putin is not aware of it:

RU cossacks Luhansk obl:Idiots asked why we shoot from resident.areas.We'll fire from every flat or Ukr advances
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uex8Y

OUTLAW 09
10-02-2014, 01:18 PM
[QUOTE=AmericanPride;161701]Right. Typically disputants have different positions; hence the dispute. The scope of localized power in the Donbas vis-a-vis the central government is a gap that needed (and still needs) addressing.

Again we differ---having spent way to much time in actual combat environments one tends to "recognize" a tactical trend;

1. explain why the well trained and experienced Russian VDV airborne unit got so badly mauled---did in fact the Ukrainians "know" the Russians were coming and had been prepared for it?

2. explain why there were two specific battles--both the Ukraine lost but it gained tactical time to pull back and hold other locations even in the face of massive social media critique the units were told stand and die if need be to the last bullet and then surrender after equipment destruction which they did---BETTER yet just why were the two locations selected for an Alamo stand?

3. why the subtle indicators of a very serious unspoken guerrilla war being waged now inside the "from Russia controlled territory" which are causing more Russian troop loses that are not being spoken about in western media but the truck loads of dead bodies going back to Russia has now the Russian population attention as per the recent in Moscow 50K plus peace march

4. why are there still four surrounded UA enclaves that are doing just fine even as they are surrounded---inside the Russian controlled "territory"--that until today have not been taken by the Russians or their mercenaries

4. why the apparent in the face of a "weak" UA are they doing very well in the face of a constant combined Russian troop and mercenary attacks on the Dontesk airport.

Does all of that appear to be the concept of an "unprepared Ukrainian Army rolled over during the Russian invasion"--or does it indicate that more is ongoing behind the scenes we non Ukrainian types know nothing about?

Ever seriously watch the good cop bad cop game going on between the Ukrainian President and the Ukrainian PM---well conducted if one asks me--the Russians are fully negatively focused on the PM and view the President to be the best person to deal with--and you think that is not "by chance"?

Come on AP think and analyze events, indicators and multiple sources AND it is open source to all to see and read.

You make this into a moral question and question my rationale--it is all about how a smaller and far militarily weaker country that lives next to a somewhat angry powerful neighbor decides how it is going to survive---I still maintain the current Ukrainian leadership has a strategy and it is using every available tool it has to survive.

In some aspects AP go back and restudy American Revolutionary War articles---did we not do exactly the same thing?

Come on AP think it through and you will see we actually did things similarly in 1776 as the Ukrainians are doing in 2014.

If it means giving up territory to survive knowing it is going to lose it anyway to gain a strong sanctions regime they believe will on the end reign in Putin so be it --if it means using the EU as a leverage point against Putin and to gain economic support so be it--and on and on.

Is that not the same strategy Stalin used as the Germans raced over the SU towards Moscow?

In some aspect the Ukrainians have done something the West was unable to do in Georgia and Moldavia---the lost zone is not in fact "frozen" as many western pundits have feared---the Ukrainians have boxed in the mercenaries and at some point Putin will have to sit down and do a simple math calculation-AT what point will I declare a "victory" and leave or will I be willing to go down in Russian history and be declared the Russian leader who destroyed his own economy in the name of "fascism"?

If he breaks out and heads to Odessa THEN we the West has a serious problem on our hands which is then headed to an open armed conflict that no one can calculate the end state on.

He is not yet at that point---but his "oligarchs" are getting there quickly.

As the comments today by the Serbank SEO indicate--he is blaming openly the government for the business decisions disaster hitting them.

NOTICE AP---it appears that on their on the UA can take on the mercenaries and win---their strategy was to slow down the Russians and box them in and if it means loss of territory to do that then so be it---it is at least a valid survival strategy.

RU cossacks Luhansk obl:Idiots asked why we shoot from resident.areas.We'll fire from every flat or Ukr advances
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uex8Y

See AP--Putin ie his military is not yet at the decision making point of the "win and or lose" column.

IMO he is still in the "winning militarily mindset"

Russia 76th Air Assault Div deployed to E#Ukraine, 27 RUS tanks moved to Ukr controlled terr
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/01/dmitry-tymchuk-units-of-russian-air-assault-division-deployed-in-east-ukraine/ …
pic.twitter.com/y4fo5QekFJ

This AP goes to my far earlier comments concerning sanctions after the Crimea that we disagreed on a number of times.

If the current sectorial sanctions had come into effect just right after the Crimea annexation and the economic collapse pain seen now by Putin had occurred say three months ago--he definitely would not have made a military move into eastern Ukraine---so in some aspects we the West are just responsible for the Ukrainian problems as much as Putin is.

This article is going to the heart of just how hard the sanctions will hit and it is not pretty for the Russian economy regardless of how Putin is spinning his comments today at his investment conference.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shunned-by-debt-markets-over-ukraine-conflict-2014-10

AmericanPride
10-02-2014, 02:08 PM
evidence is growing with social media photos, videos and SBU voice intercepts that in fact the Berkut Security Police that were firing on and deliberately killing Maidan protestors were in fact a Russian GRU/SF sniper team---IF true then the Russian planned invasion in eastern Ukraine was triggered already in January 2014

IF true (care to share a link for another wild speculation?), it does not automatically follow that the Russians "planned invasion in eastern Ukraine was triggered already in January". Remember it was not until February that Yanukovych fled, and this was after his government had made a tentative agreement for reform and elections.


This goes to the heart of the idea the Russians were in fact "suckered in".

You are a well practiced conspiracy theorist. You develop some speculations and then you selective peruse the 'evidence' to 'prove' your claim. Were the Russians "suckered in" or did they plan the invasion as early as January? Which is it?


Ever seriously watch the good cop bad cop game going on between the Ukrainian President and the Ukrainian PM---well conducted if one asks me--the Russians are fully negatively focused on the PM and view the President to be the best person to deal with--and you think that is not "by chance"?

There's a less ominous answer than that Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk conspired to "sucker in" Russia into invading Ukraine and killing thousands of their countrymen. It could be that the President and Prime Minister have two very different political agendas, and that one was elected and the other came to power through self-appointment.


I still maintain the current Ukrainian leadership has a strategy and it is using every available tool it has to survive.

I never disputed that the Ukrainians "have a strategy". I dispute that the strategy is as you have claimed more than once the deliberate provocation of Russia to invade, kill thousands of Ukrainians, and cause billions of dollars of property damage. And if your theory is in fact true, then we in the U.S. should also be alarmed since this means the U.S.-Russian relationship was effectively sabotaged by Ukraine.


If it means giving up territory to survive knowing it is going to lose it anyway to gain a strong sanctions regime they believe will on the end reign in Putin so be it

No, no, no... you're not going to twist your way out of this one. You stated that the Russians were "suckered in", that their invasion was provoked by Ukraine. How would the Ukrainians know they are going to "lose [the territory] anyway" before the Russians even invaded? That means when the UA launched its offensive against at the time relatively peaceful separatists in the spring, it did so with the intention of not restoring its sovereignty but of provoking a Russian military response. When did the Ukrainians decide to "sucker in" Russia with the intent to "gain a strong sanctions regime"?


Is that not the same strategy Stalin used as the Germans raced over the SU towards Moscow?

No - it's not the same thing at all. The USSR did not provoke the Germans to invade. In fact, the senior Soviet leadership refused to believe in the opening hours of the invasion that the Germans were actually invading. You are arguing the opposite. You are arguing that the Ukrainians not only knew the Russians were invading, but that they deliberately engineered the situation in such a way as to provoke it. At least get your own theory straight first.


If the current sectorial sanctions had come into effect just right after the Crimea annexation and the economic collapse pain seen now by Putin had occurred say three months ago

Are the sanctions punitive or preventative?

davidbfpo
10-02-2014, 02:28 PM
AP you cited Outlaw09 before posing your request for a link in support of:
evidence is growing with social media photos, videos and SBU voice intercepts that in fact the Berkut Security Police that were firing on and deliberately killing Maidan protestors were in fact a Russian GRU/SF sniper team

I do not watch the events as closely as Outlaw09, but now at least a week ago an item, probably on Twitter, compared the photos of a Berkut policeman firing @ Maidan Square and a Russian GRU/SF sniper who had been captured fighting in the Eastern Ukraine. IIRC facial mapping had been used.

And no I did not retain the link.:mad:

OUTLAW 09
10-02-2014, 03:05 PM
IF true (care to share a link for another wild speculation?), it does not automatically follow that the Russians "planned invasion in eastern Ukraine was triggered already in January". Remember it was not until February that Yanukovych fled, and this was after his government had made a tentative agreement for reform and elections.



You are a well practiced conspiracy theorist. You develop some speculations and then you selective peruse the 'evidence' to 'prove' your claim. Were the Russians "suckered in" or did they plan the invasion as early as January? Which is it?



There's a less ominous answer than that Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk conspired to "sucker in" Russia into invading Ukraine and killing thousands of their countrymen. It could be that the President and Prime Minister have two very different political agendas, and that one was elected and the other came to power through self-appointment.



I never disputed that the Ukrainians "have a strategy". I dispute that the strategy is as you have claimed more than once the deliberate provocation of Russia to invade, kill thousands of Ukrainians, and cause billions of dollars of property damage. And if your theory is in fact true, then we in the U.S. should also be alarmed since this means the U.S.-Russian relationship was effectively sabotaged by Ukraine.



No, no, no... you're not going to twist your way out of this one. You stated that the Russians were "suckered in", that their invasion was provoked by Ukraine. How would the Ukrainians know they are going to "lose [the territory] anyway" before the Russians even invaded? That means when the UA launched its offensive against at the time relatively peaceful separatists in the spring, it did so with the intention of not restoring its sovereignty but of provoking a Russian military response. When did the Ukrainians decide to "sucker in" Russia with the intent to "gain a strong sanctions regime"?



No - it's not the same thing at all. The USSR did not provoke the Germans to invade. In fact, the senior Soviet leadership refused to believe in the opening hours of the invasion that the Germans were actually invading. You are arguing the opposite. You are arguing that the Ukrainians not only knew the Russians were invading, but that they deliberately engineered the situation in such a way as to provoke it. At least get your own theory straight first.



Are the sanctions punitive or preventative?

AP---here you go again--this is Putin's "death race" and it is coming far faster than even the oligarchs and himself ever though possible six months ago--the collapse of the Ural sour crude oil prices.

He cannot continue for much longer if this oil price collapse goes on---WTI at 88 USD per barrel went up slightly this morning to 89 USD. AND the oil industry is indicating it is here to stay for awhile as world wide demand is going backwards and the production rates are to high as are the prices---the KSA cut their prices today as well. By the way historically it was the KSA overproduction that did in Russia the last time.

Russia needs at least 106-110 per barrel to maintain their economy--if the pricing hits the low 80s range it is game over within a year for Russia.

Do remember when I just wrote to you today---at some point he has a decision to make and that point is by say this coming Monday--if the price collapse maintains itself into this coming Monday--game over.

Remember this is exactly the same game scenario that caused the Soviet Union to collapse---not all the Reagan junk he often would say or the arms race he unleashed---it was simply the oil price collapse that did in the SU nothing more nothing less.

AND we are seeing history being replayed--interesting is it not---this oil price scenario was mentioned by me back on the threads just at the beginning of the Crimea events as the key lever to reign in Putin.

I will now sit back and enjoy watching his attempting to maneuver out of the corner HE himself got himself into---one should never unleash the "dogs of fascism" if one cannot reign them in--and one should "never ever assume" one is a superpower without first making sure one has a world class economy to back it up.

Secondly, I have mentioned a number of time here that the Russian economy was one vast Ponzi scheme built by the oligarchs to rake in the cash and that has not hit the wall since western banks are no longer nice with the oligarchs in providing them a vast stream of zero interest 90 day lines of credit and bank/bond loans.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-price-tumbles-below-120014817.html

kaur
10-02-2014, 03:50 PM
Via Google Translate


Poroshenko can amnesty of former berkutovtsev
02/08/2014

The President believes that fighting is now in the east part of the ATU special forces blood to atone
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko not exclude that part of the special forces "Berkut" and "Alpha" who were involved in the tragic events on Independence can be amnestied. He stated this in an interview to the Ukrainian media.

As the press service of the head of state, Poroshenko reminded that a large part of the employees of "Berkut" and "Alpha" is now fighting in the ranks of the antiterrorist operation.

"Part of the job of" Berkut ", part of the employees of" Alpha "- they are now fighting heroically in the east. I do not rule out that the results of their combat operations I have to make a decision about their amnesty" - Poroshenko said, adding that these employees' blood to make amends. "

The president also stressed that the responsibility for crimes against Maidana has no statute of limitations, and all those responsible should be punished. "There is no doubt that the responsibility for the events on Independence has no statute of limitations," - he said.

The President expressed his dissatisfaction rate investigation of the events of that time. At the same time, he called the "right steps" resumption of criminal cases against members acceleration Maidan that have been discontinued.

According to Poroshenko, filed cases against 30 prosecutors, 11 judges, law enforcement officials. 27 senior officials of the international wanted list.

The President also said that the investigation of crimes on the Maidan and events on May 2 in Odessa, established an international commission of inquiry.

Poroshenko stressed the need for security sector reform. "We have to do a reboot of law enforcement, the judiciary, local government," - he said. The President believes that "cosmetic changes will not help." In his opinion, should be the new Police Act, its functions and rights.

http://news.liga.net/news/politics/2762270-poroshenko_mozhet_amnistirovat_chast_byvshikh_berk utovtsev.htm

David, if you mean this news, then that Russian paratrooper used Ukrainian Berkut uniform in Sevastopol.

http://maxpark.com/community/politic/content/2959791

AmericanPride
10-02-2014, 03:56 PM
Outlaw,

For your "theory" to work (and I use the word theory in the broadest possible meaning), the Yatsenyuk administration (remember, he came into power before Poroshenko was elected) would have to predict the responses of the U.S. and all the E.U. members as well as the consequences in the oil market, not to mention every move of Moscow since February in order to "sucker in" the Russians. I think you give him too much credit for his power of precognition.

Now if all of this is true as you claim, the U.S. should be outraged. Not only has Kiev wrecked U.S. - Russians relations, but also tested the credibility of both NATO and the EU - two organizations of which it's not even a part. You need to do a better job in bringing together all of your scattered thoughts.

davidbfpo
10-02-2014, 04:33 PM
AP asked:
David, if you mean this news, then that Russian paratrooper used Ukrainian Berkut uniform in Sevastopol.

http://maxpark.com/community/politic/content/2959791

No, not that. IIRC it was a full face photo from the Maidan of a Berkut police officer alongside another full face photo after being captured in the East recently.

AmericanPride
10-02-2014, 04:40 PM
AP asked:

No, not that. IIRC it was a full face photo from the Maidan of a Berkut police officer alongside another full face photo after being captured in the East recently.

David,

After the Yatsenyuk government disbanded Berkut, many of its officers joined the ranks of the disaffected in the Donbass (although some stayed loyal to the new government). That one of them was captured fighting for the separatists is not sufficient to prove outlaw's claim that GRU officers conducted false flag sniper attacks against the Maiden protestors.

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 09:37 AM
David,

After the Yatsenyuk government disbanded Berkut, many of its officers joined the ranks of the disaffected in the Donbass (although some stayed loyal to the new government). That one of them was captured fighting for the separatists is not sufficient to prove outlaw's claim that GRU officers conducted false flag sniper attacks against the Maiden protestors.

AP--- perfect example of how fast you tend to cruise over what I link to here.

I provided a solid link via twitter to the individual and other reports from the Russian SF unit based in the Crimea which again surfaced yesterday with a further photo that actually pointed the finger at a specific Russian SF unit still in the Crimea.

The photo series I linked to was not about a captured individual but rather it was a Russian social media search by bloggers who turned up the Russian SF's individual account, with multiple photos of himself in his Russian SF uniform and three others of him in a Berkut uniform together with others from the same SF unit. AGAIN all taken from the individuals own Russian social media account---UNTIL it suddenly was pulled after the twitter reports came out.

THEN after that hit the twitter and blogger worlds a Kiev woman upon seeing the photo of him in the Berkut uniform clearly identified him as the individual who "arrested and beat her during the Maidan" and who then filed local criminal charges against him.

The info that surfaced yesterday was the identification of the Russian SF snipers in their Russian SF uniforms in the Crimea and then the same individuals again in Maidan Berkut photos that haven collected since the Maidan in a large scale attempt to collect all photographic evidence of the sniping events.

Enjoyed your comments concerning "false flag" attacks---so it is your opinion they did not occur or is it your opinion the GRU is not "up" to such attacks?

THEN what were all those "alleged" MRLS and heavy arty strikes coming from Russian soil directly into the Ukraine--"an accident"---all caught again on social media videos and photos.

REMEMBER AP intensely go back and reread the new Russian military UW doctrine New Generation Warfare and then tell me what step/phase Russian is in currently?

Take each step/phase and then look at what is exactly ongoing in the Ukraine from the Russian side---THEN you can start to finally start "understanding" what you are "seeing".

NEXT time AP--slow down--take the time to walk through what I link to and then maybe you would not be all over the place.

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 09:44 AM
for those commenters who still believe Belarus is not an active participant in this charade of being "neutral"

Remember they are now the largest single fish producer shipping banned salmon to Russia under their own fish company name even though they have no fishing fleet and no fishing industry.

THEN this today by their own military leadership---"the Belarus military could also "accidently get lost in the Ukraine".

Remember Belarus is a active member of CSTO---and there have been some small comments coming out of the CSTO concerning the potential use of CSTO forces inside the Ukraine.

That threat has always been there and not so subtle and totally overlooked by the EU/NATO and especially the US.

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 09:48 AM
AP--a perfect example of Russian "false flag activities" ---a press release statement issued by an official Russian who should know better than to state what he did but hey "false flag ops" is something that can been done in multiple ways---and this a way.

today from RIA:

MOSCOW, October 3 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Defense Ministry on Friday denied claims by Ukraine’s Defense Minister Valeriy Heletei that Russia has allegedly delivered arms to eastern Ukraine.

“It’s time the Ukrainian military leaders stop scaring the global community with a non-existent Russian threat while hiding the sorry condition of its army and the senselessness of a military operation against civilians in Donbas,” an official spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said.

SO AP---is the above statement true or false?

IF false then why believe anything in the future uttered by this Russian official?

NOTICE AP the comment about a sorry state of the UA---then he failed to mention just why then the high loss of Russian troops killed, wounded and or missing within some of their even elite units to include GRU and SF.

REMEMBER I pointed out the Donetsk airport battle is a pivotal one---that "sorry state of an army" has now turned back weeks of multiple attacks by both Russian troops and Russian mercenaries and yesterday virtually beat them into the ground and the mercenaries are no longer stating they have control of the airport---and that is what "a sorry state or an army"?

On Thursday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy Heletei accused Russia of delivering new ammunition to Ukraine, and demonstrated three 7.62 mm shells that he pulled out of his pants pocket to journalists.

“This type of ammunition is produced throughout the territory of the former Soviet Union, including in Luhansk’s ammunitions factory. The last modernization of this ammunition was in 1974, when the Soviet Armed Forces switched to its main standard of 5.45 mm,” the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said.

He added that neither the Soviet nor the Russian Army had ordered the modernization of the 7.62-mm calibre since 1974.

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 11:49 AM
AP--a perfect example of Russian "false flag activities" ---a press release statement issued by an official Russian who should know better than to state what he did but hey "false flag ops" is something that can been done in multiple ways---and this a way.

today from RIA:

MOSCOW, October 3 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Defense Ministry on Friday denied claims by Ukraine’s Defense Minister Valeriy Heletei that Russia has allegedly delivered arms to eastern Ukraine.

“It’s time the Ukrainian military leaders stop scaring the global community with a non-existent Russian threat while hiding the sorry condition of its army and the senselessness of a military operation against civilians in Donbas,” an official spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said.

SO AP---is the above statement true or false?

IF false then why believe anything in the future uttered by this Russian official?

NOTICE AP the comment about a sorry state of the UA---then he failed to mention just why then the high loss of Russian troops killed, wounded and or missing within some of their even elite units to include GRU and SF.

REMEMBER I pointed out the Donetsk airport battle is a pivotal one---that "sorry state of an army" has now turned back weeks of multiple attacks by both Russian troops and Russian mercenaries and yesterday virtually beat them into the ground and the mercenaries are no longer stating they have control of the airport---and that is what "a sorry state or an army"?

On Thursday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy Heletei accused Russia of delivering new ammunition to Ukraine, and demonstrated three 7.62 mm shells that he pulled out of his pants pocket to journalists.

“This type of ammunition is produced throughout the territory of the former Soviet Union, including in Luhansk’s ammunitions factory. The last modernization of this ammunition was in 1974, when the Soviet Armed Forces switched to its main standard of 5.45 mm,” the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said.

He added that neither the Soviet nor the Russian Army had ordered the modernization of the 7.62-mm calibre since 1974.

NOTE: Normally this would not be a "false flag statement" but rather under an info war environment either a black, white or grey press release.

BUT in this case the Russians are tending to wade into the area of what I would and do call "false flag info warfare".

HOW---they setup a release by a well positioned individual to counter and prove to the world just how "crazy" those Ukrainians really are.

WHAT is not directly answered and WHAT was said in fact by the Ukrainian military in a press release that was spun out of a blogger photo is the discovery of a large number of spent high caliber armor piercing incendiary rounds in the 14.5mm range that is totally not Ukrainian produced but in fact produced recently by the Russian defense manufacturers as part of the new Russian modernization program 2020 for their new APC weapon systems.

NOTICE--the Russians took an accusation, rephrased the accusation and turned it back onto the Ukrainians ALL the while never and or sidestepping the original Ukrainian accusation of a new munition being shipped into the Ukraine by the Russian military---BUT in fact positioning a totally "new story or false flag".

AND starting a complete new global news cycle that will last for about 12-18 hours and then it will be followed up by another release and at the end of a 24 news cycle the world media will never have paid attention to the first accurate Ukrainian accusation on the use of a new Russian ammunition that started the cycle to begin with.

In a standard info war environment they would have simply denied it with a shaded their response that would have been hard to disprove---not blatantly driving a "false flag" ie all the time knowing the new ammunition was in fact Russian produced and shipped into the Ukraine.

This use of a "false flag" inside info war is both new and extremely interesting as it can lend itself to a number of different uses inside info warfare as being practiced right now as part of their UW strategy.

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 12:19 PM
Here is what you need to inhale and thoroughly by rote fully be able to repeat verbatim in your sleep.

These are the eight phases of the new Russian UW military strategy.

Ask the first question;

1. what phase and or phases are the Russian in

2. what are the Ukrainians doing to counter the phase and or phases

BY the way AP--the Ukrainian military was quite aware of this strategy before it was actually published in open source media in 2013---so again the core question "suckered" in yes or no?

THEN take every Russian press release, and or statement made by any official Russian and or Putin and including the fringe "fascisists" and or military action or non action and find the corresponding phase and or phases and then you can fully "see" and "understand".

This is not rocket science---it just takes opening your mind and "watching".

There is a certain amount of beauty in the strategy--it allows the Russians to throttle back and or ratchet up the UW pressure in support to their political warfare and it allows for multiple different combinations of phases depending on exactly how one's opponent is responding to you both politically and or militarily.

THAT is why it was developed---the strategy though has an inherent single point of failure actually two single points of failure that were inadvertently included and not noticed that are becoming apparent now to the Russians themselves. REMEMBER AP this is also the Russians' first run of this strategy as it was first published in 2013--kind of like a shake down cruise sort of thing.

1. The UW strategy is offensive in nature---it was not built to be defensive in nature so therefore if the political leadership "realizes" it is simply not working--THEN how does one back out without losing either "face" and or "militarily"?

2. WHAT if the opponent in fact stumbles onto the flaw and starts a serious at first small counter UW operation that grows in ability?
NOTE AP--this is what the Ukrainians were doing with their ATO move against the mercenaries and were in fact winning ground and hurting badly the separatists to the point the separatists were in fact losing---that is what pushed Putin to move---the Russia UW strategy had suffered it first single point of failure--he had to move in to save the strategy and his face or he would have had the next single point of failure on his hands.

Right now that is where the Ukrainians are headed---the Russian LOCs are not being as protected as they should be because they are offensively minded thus are taking LOCs loses---in the SF world we call this "nickel and diming you opponent to death" and Russian losses are in fact climbing for some reason that has not been reported via social media. Losses of single vehicles, a couple of tanks here or there, several soldiers/APCs killed in a small ambush---all add up in the long haul.

Russian UW phases:

The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov, 2013, pp. 15-22):
First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological,ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).
Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.
Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.
Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.
Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of highprecision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons based
on new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).
Eighth Phase: roll over the remaining points of resistance and destroy surviving enemy units by special operations conducted by reconnaissance units to spot which enemy units have survived and transmit their coordinates to the attacker's missile and artillery units; fire barrages to annihilate the defender's resisting army units by effective advanced weapons; airdrop
operations to surround points of resistance; and territory mopping-up operations by ground troops.

AP--notice this sentence in phase seven?

combined with the use of highprecision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons based
on new physical principles

An extremely high number of Ukrainian armored vehicles and artillery were destroyed and are still being targeted by extremely high precision artillery rounds by the Russians. The Why begs to be asked?--answer---they are using the new weapons systems under combat conditions, gaining proficiency in using them, testing their doctrine and making notes to make any changes they detect on the effectiveness. A "win win" concept in their minds and they are "killing juntaists/Nazi's at the same time".

BY the way the US Army rarely even fires such munitions due to the extreme cost in each shell--but the Russians are firing them by the truck load.

Yet what is the western response to this new Russian UW strategy---utter silence ---yes a tiny little whimper by NATO about a new Russian hybrid form of warfare---but no real solution to the strategy because it takes a truly well thought through counter UW strategy to defeat it.

SO again AP--"suckered in yes or no"?

See AP this is also where you go right instead of looking left---it sounds absurd to you but not to me, but to the Ukrainians fighting for their survival all is fair game and it is certainly not absurd to them---some might say in the west in a cyclical way---"it is the cost of doing business".

Where this show is going will define Europe in the coming years.

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 01:24 PM
AP--right now I have argued the Russians were "suckered in" and you pushed back.

New Russian approach---IMO the Russians have come to the conclusion that the Ukraine "stymied" them at Minsk 1 and 2 to gain time to refit, rearm and redeploy---which is actually correct.

The Russians have also seen that by being "suckered in" because the Ukrainians were in fact pushing the separatists into a defeat they got hit hard by the sectorial sanctions which are in fact damaging them more and more as time goes on. So they are being forced into a "death race with time"--meaning how do we succeed militarily to beat down the Ukraine before our economy truly tanks and "we are out of a job"?

Check the Russian FM speech to the UN on 26 Sept and the undying belief that they can use the same arguments as did the US/NATO in Kosovo---"the civilian population needs to be protected" and the West is doing nothing to stop this "genocide" on Russian speaking peoples.

NOW comes the new Russian shift after that UN speech---there has been a literal drumbeat of Russian FM press releases and Putin/Duma reps have been spin talking about the "ongoing genocide of Russian speakers at the hands of the Ukrainians"--ie yesterday a drumbeat about the Ukrainians shelling buses and schools and killing innocent children and teachers.

ALL literally in the face of the simple fact that there is massive social media evidence pointing to the shelling being conducted actually by Russian troops and mercenaries to include geo tagging videos.

The Russian UW strategy has been failing over the last two weeks ie the mercenaries even with Russian troop support have not been making much headway in kicking the Ukrainian Army out of New Russia---in fact they are again losing battle after battle even with Russian troops and equipment.

SO now the mantra is "genocide"---why because IMO this gives the Russians their need for a "legal cover" to fully invade the eastern Ukraine under the guise of "formal peacekeeping" ie the Kosovo example.

ALL the while claiming to the international press "see the constant shelling of civilians by the Ukrainian Army was not stopped by the West who has double standards when it comes to Russian civilians" and on and on.

The continuous Russian troop buildup in front of Mariupol and the Crimea border all points to a "peacekeeping" move by the Russian military as all the info war and "false flag" attacks occurring lately all point in that direction.

For a great social media open source study on the use of civilian buildings and apartments in their attacks on Ukrainian forces and then later claiming it was those "crazy Ukrainians" check the work uploaded today to:

ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Titled "12 Ways Russians terrorists are using civilian buildings"

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 03:05 PM
It appears that the EU as do I see the "ceasefire" for what is it---the Ukrainians "ceasing" and the mercenaries and Russian troops "firing".

The EU is as I do viewing the recent mercenary and Russian troop movements and fighting to be a signal they want to grab more land in spite of the Minsk 1 and 2 and the EU is also warning Moscow it has done virtually nothing on their side to fulfill what they promised they would do as well under Minsk 1 and 2.

EU warns Russia that more sanctions would be forthcoming if they attempt another land grab anywhere within the Donbas region.

First really seriously clear warning to Moscow by the EU----the EU views Moscow as not fulfilling anything they stated they would do for Minsk 1 and 2 and that more sanctions were coming if Moscow does not finally start the process they loudly claim they are doing.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-03/eu-warns-putin-of-new-sanctions-if-ukraine-rebels-seek-land-grab

This is one of the items that is concerning the EU--it appears more Russian troops are going in the "wrong" direction again.

100th Intelligence Brigade of #Russia|n Armed Forces in North Ossetia crossed from Rostov into #Novoazovsk

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 04:18 PM
It appears that the EU as do I see the "ceasefire" for what is it---the Ukrainians "ceasing" and the mercenaries and Russian troops "firing".

The EU is as I do viewing the recent mercenary and Russian troop movements and fighting to be a signal they want to grab more land in spite of the Minsk 1 and 2 and the EU is also warning Moscow it has done virtually nothing on their side to fulfill what they promised they would do as well under Minsk 1 and 2.

EU warns Russia that more sanctions would be forthcoming if they attempt another land grab anywhere within the Donbas region.

First really seriously clear warning to Moscow by the EU----the EU views Moscow as not fulfilling anything they stated they would do for Minsk 1 and 2 and that more sanctions were coming if Moscow does not finally start the process they loudly claim they are doing.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-03/eu-warns-putin-of-new-sanctions-if-ukraine-rebels-seek-land-grab

This is one of the items that is concerning the EU--it appears more Russian troops are going in the "wrong" direction again.

100th Intelligence Brigade of #Russia|n Armed Forces in North Ossetia crossed from Rostov into #Novoazovsk

And more ----

#NATO:Hundreds of #Russian troops still in #Ukraine; 20,000 near border http://belsat.eu/en/articles/40727/ …

pic.twitter.com/9qPY5d2Z4c

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 04:23 PM
Now Russia is attempting to pile additional pressure on the Ukrainians. Question inherently is---who put him up to his offer of peacekeeping forces.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has rejected President Aliaksandr Lukashenka's proposal to bring Belarusian peacekeeping forces into Donbass, Yevhen Perebiynis, the Ministry's Information Policy Department Chief, told rbc.ua.

“We believe that no peacekeepers should be brought into Ukraine. It is essential that the Russian Federation and terrorists fulfil Minsk agreements on ceasefire and POW exchange. The Russian Federation should take its troops out of Ukraine … Ukraine doesn't need any peacekeeping forces. We are able to put our country in order ourselves provided that foreign military leave it,” he stressed.
"
It is curious that the representatives of the unrecognised Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) have taken up Aliaksandr Lukashenka's idea with enthusiasm.

"I guess Belarusians are as much tightly bound to us as Russians are. It would be great if the Belarusian troops draw a line between military forces just on the borders of the DPR and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), which would separate the territories of the people's republics from Ukraine," Miroslav Rudenko, DPR's 'deputy chairman of the Supreme Council', told radio station Govorit Moskva.
"
It is to be recalled that Aliaksandr Lukashenka expressed his readiness to act as a mediator to ease the Ukrainian conflict in his interview with Euronews.

"But for me this would be a very dangerous and terrible thing to put my own soldiers at risk: if the Russians mistrust the West, and the West, Russia, if the USA and Russia mistrusted each other, and there is mistrust between the warring parties, I would have been putting my own armed forces in harm’s way to separate the conflicting parties,” he said.

www.belsat.eu/en

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 04:47 PM
This is a telling battle video shot by the mercenaries of their attack on the Donetsk airport---has two interesting points.

1. one sub commander is wearing his Russian blue beret for the Russian airborne units and

2. there are a number of fighters wearing white tape on their uniforms the standard marking of Russian troops when they co-mingle with mercenaries ---again interesting as that is a TTP from Russian troops who went into the Crimea

The video is excellent as it proves the ceasefire is simply not working and it is coming from the Russian mercenaries themselves and cannot be simply explained away by Russian media.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shFY46bQC3M&feature=youtu.be

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 04:51 PM
OSCE formally announces they were not impartial when armed Russian troops/mercenaries were using OSCE patrol vehicles to recon Ukrainian positions and or transport their personnel.

So can the OSCE really be trusted as a neutral monitoring organization---not really--as it does support rumors for the last years it was under complete Russian influence.

Lugansk News Today @LUGANSK_TODAY

#OSCE @OSCE_SMM regrets that terrorists are using their car as a taxi. Deep concern next
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/125102 …

pic.twitter.com/FBsKOnzevH

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 04:58 PM
AP--am not the only one seeing a Russian "death race" spiral.

#Putin’s geopolitical power grab: How #Russia's debt and currency markets could spiral into crisis

http://on.wsj.com/1r6Y2I0

By the way the sanctions and Russian bans are now causing the first food shortages even in Moscow and Russian inflation has hit the highest level in three years.

Not such a bad result for sectorial sanctions working in just in a short period of time.

NOTE:
Another indicator that the dogs of Russian "fascism" turned loose by Putin might in fact "haunt him"---remember I linked to a media comment that he wants them back only in coffins.

Some in Bosnia a little nervous that 150 Russian Cossack "artists" have arrived in Banja Luka on eve of elections:

http://bit.ly/1BDvGuY

"Russian 'volunteers'...will...come back with their arms - and hatred of those who did not let them 'finish the job'"

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/all-politics-are-local-crimea-explained

Russian Ultranationalist Web Site Owner Summoned to Police in 'Extremism' Investigation

http://bit.ly/1ujBj1f

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 05:04 PM
More concrete evidence that the Russian intelligence services are providing direct support to the mercenaries fighting at the Donetsk airport.

#BreakingPicture Russian soldiers with fresh Russian intelligence satellite pictures of #Donetsk #airport.

pic.twitter.com/LSJbQYEEOL

And more and more........

Two things,that should never see in one picture:Foreign army's T-72B1 and a playground.
Daily occurrence in #Donetsk.

pic.twitter.com/8eTPB23MOw

Video of #Russia|n army column in #Rostov heading towards #Ukraine

http://www.enjoygram.com/m/823148898126543409_705016421

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 05:21 PM
AP---just another author who fully understands the "Putin death race" he finds himself in now as the sanctions and falling oil revenue has "cornered" Putin.

As I mentioned to you weeks and weeks ago---he missed the off ramps offered to him by the West as he set all on the military card and went full in.

And again--his off ramp will only come via the Ukrainians themselves as I think he has finally figured out he was "suckered in".

Russia Has No Way Back From Sanctions War | Opinion | The Moscow Times

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/no-way-back-from-sanctions-war/508324.html

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 06:20 PM
And the Dontesk airport battle just keeps on going and going.......

#Donetsk is burning tonight after #Russia|n GRAD attacks,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEaXx2AzOfk …

4 GRAD trucks heavily shell #Donetsk airport:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDWHQUNnTv4

After so many failures to take the airport the DNR is arguing now there are Poles, American, and Swedes fighting for the UA.

Mercenaries almost took the first floor of the airport but were driven back---used heavy white smoke to cover their movements.

In #DonetskAirport the terrorists took over the first floor but were driven out after counterattack -ATO

pic.twitter.com/hiCTXrNxan

OUTLAW 09
10-03-2014, 06:59 PM
Formal Ukrainian response to the Russian charges of "genocide" on Russian speakers.


NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua

Ukraine Security Service presented map of crimes, made by Russia-backed terrorists.

Full story http://goo.gl/9FzbEU

pic.twitter.com/3DzX87dUyp

Ukrainian response to the killing of a ICRC individual through shelling.

#Ukraine's Amb to the UN Yuri #Sergeyev says Kyiv has serious proof shell that hit #ICRC office in #Donetsk came from separatists' side

OUTLAW 09
10-04-2014, 07:33 AM
AP---you mentioned "false flag attacks" previously ---here is the perfect learning example of how the Russian mercenaries and the Russian FM and the Russian media injects the "false flag attack" into the info war news cycle.

Immediately after the shelling of the Donetsk ICRC building killing a Swiss member the mercenaries and the Russian FM and then the RIA/Inferfax started a drumbeat of press releases "accusing" the Ukrainian military for firing on the ICRC and Donetsk civilians--basically the word "genocide" was used over and over.

Then the Ukrainians attempted to push back info war wise with a short press release indicating they could prove it was Russian mercenaries---was that picked up and passed on by the Russia media-no nor by the Western news media which by the way shows far more interest in the IS than the killing and destruction by Russian troops and mercenaries next door--western media in the Ukraine has in fact appeared to be almost non existent except for a handful of their journalists who speak Russian--but who lately are reporting less and less--ever wonder why?

Then this was released by the SBU--basically a voice intercept indicating that the mercenaries had done the firing on the ICRC.

But then it was to late for the standard news cycles and it had to struggle to get attention a full day after the event which is a life time in the news media.

These types of "false flag shellings" have been going on forever and it has been widely documented in social media and yet the Russians keep up the "genocide" drumbeat---which means to me 1) it is useful info war tactics, 2) they are setting the stage for other events to come. Meaning if they say it enough times to themselves they even start to believe their own propaganda.

Now you understand my use of the term "altered state of reality". So sometimes these "strange terms to you" do in fact encompass truth.

SBU--voice intercept of the shelling:

Ukraine releases intercept of DNR chatter with Russia's state RTR channel discussing "Red Cross" rep in Donetsk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv7BJZsl9t4&feature=youtu.be …

NATURAL Russian response coming today can be given now even before they release their response: 1) intercept is a fake and 2) "it ain't us".

AND by the way AP--now go back into the eight phases of the new Russian UW military strategy and see where this attack fits into it---good learning drill.

OUTLAW 09
10-04-2014, 08:52 AM
AP---another example of the differences between us---I have worked the open source humint world for years and know from experience the importance of it as a triggering indicator and I also know from experience over 80% of all actual intel comes via open source-why because a number of my successes at the national reporting level came from simple open sources.

If you had been blogging as much as I do you would have known that recently the CIA released over 300 declassed articles they had written and two were extremely good on the value of open source to the intel field and cycle.

Notice you pushed back and questioned the recent reporting of Russian SF being in Berkut uniforms and killing on the Maidan.

Work open source long enough and you will find other examples that indicate Russia WAS FULLY involved during the winter Maidan and were behind a large number of the killings there.

WHAT I have personally been impressed by is a group of European bloggers who were there from the beginning of the Crimea until now who are consistently beating anything the US intelligence community can do and they are worming through Russia social media far faster than the FSB and are using analysis tools in new and innovative ways---no American blogging scene is a good right now as this group is.

ANOTHER Russian militia person in a Berkut uniform on the Maidan identified by social media and facial recognition programs available to anyone on the open source side of the house.

SO AP---begs the question--if private individuals are achieving this level of identification JUST where are the western intel services and what is it they are not wanting to talk about.

IMO they know the depth of Russian involvement and do not want it known out of fear that Joe Public would demand more from their political leadership ie the US/UK/EU/NATO.

#Russia's Militia was suppressing #Maidan demonstration in #Kyiv in December, in Ukr uniform.

http://podrobnosti.ua/accidents/2014/10/03/996391.html …

pic.twitter.com/J3LplTAk29

OUTLAW 09
10-04-2014, 11:28 AM
AP--we talked here about being "suckered in"---if you really go back and reread the social media reporting of polls conducted during the initial separatist takeover and then in the following months--a large majority of the Donbas actually did not want to join Russia--AND the Ukrainian government knew that.

If one knows that now roughly 55% of those Donbas refugees "fleeing for protection to Russia" now "want" to return even with their homes destroyed and factories destroyed---it is just a further indicator that in reality they never did want to "join" Russia.

If then you look at the public interviews of Girkin the Russian initial leader who was kicked out by Russia---he often complained about the lack of support from the local population---there has never been more than 1-2K local fighters during this whole event.

If I know I cannot militay hold the Donbas--is not then a "suckering in" strategy a win win---I get massive sectorial sanctions on Putin which in the end weakens him politically--I get the global support for having Russians inside my country and I damage the Russian Army which in fact has occurred for all three points. And I get western aid in the rebuilding phase when all is said and done.

Then in the Minsk agreements I apply more pressure to those remaining behind to either choose me or the separatists by showing that a rebuild/reform can only go forward under the Ukrainian flag.

Ukrainian leadership knows over the long haul the local population will at some point kick out the separatists by either moving to the west and or physically stating enough is enough. And it does appear in interviews the local population that are still in Donetsk is getting the message and openly talking out against the separatists and are just now realizing how badly they fell for Russian propaganda in face of all the destruction in the "creation of New Russia".

These are the first indicators that the "suckering in policy" is in fact starting to work.

Dear civilization, we have arrived! #RUS terrorists in #Yesaulivka, #Ukraine brought back quitrent. Demand at least 10kg potatoes per house.

#Russia terrorist on #donbas : "90% r Rus citizens. Where are the locals?" #Ukraine
http://politikum.in.ua/post/3oct2014/interview/953-deputat-rf-shturmuyuschiy-doneckiy-aeroport-v-ryadah-boevikov-dnr-nas-rasstrelivayut-v-upor.html …
pic.twitter.com/WUeleV2Im8

OUTLAW 09
10-04-2014, 11:34 AM
It appears the key central battle of the "New Russia" war is being fought at the Donetsk airport--it is turning into a meat grinder for the Russia troops and mercenaries with their losses in the hundreds in wounded and killed.

The UA has been highly successful in defending the airport and or retaking parts after losing them and has been successful in maintaining a resupply effort to the troops there. Even in the face of constant "ceasefire violations" from artillery and MRLS shellings which were suppose to have stopped as the Russians indicated in their press releases?

In yday's battle for #Donetsk airport 3 Ukrainian servicemen died,2 went missing when Russians/separatists arrived in tanks disguised as UA

Longest video version so far (38 minutes).
Russian army forces' failed storming of #Donetsk #airport on 30.9.2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUt1qwtGog4

Russian army special forces commandos from South Ossetia and Abkhazia mainly involved.
"If the duck waves its flag, it is what it says."

#ATO fighters #DonetskAirport per social networks, seized T-64 tank during yesterday's assault
http://62.ua/news/634427
pic.twitter.com/9aCAfv3trl

Fight Oct 2 #DonetskAirport commandos destroyed Ru troops, killed 100's of fighters
http://unian.net/politics/991960-v-boyah-2-oktyabrya-za-donetskiy-aeroport-unichtojen-spetsnaz-rf-ubityi-sotni-boevikov-ochevidets.html
pic.twitter.com/VXMhM7l8ph

OUTLAW 09
10-05-2014, 01:59 PM
AP--we talked here about being "suckered in"---if you really go back and reread the social media reporting of polls conducted during the initial separatist takeover and then in the following months--a large majority of the Donbas actually did not want to join Russia--AND the Ukrainian government knew that.

If one knows that now roughly 55% of those Donbas refugees "fleeing for protection to Russia" now "want" to return even with their homes destroyed and factories destroyed---it is just a further indicator that in reality they never did want to "join" Russia.

If then you look at the public interviews of Girkin the Russian initial leader who was kicked out by Russia---he often complained about the lack of support from the local population---there has never been more than 1-2K local fighters during this whole event.

If I know I cannot militay hold the Donbas--is not then a "suckering in" strategy a win win---I get massive sectorial sanctions on Putin which in the end weakens him politically--I get the global support for having Russians inside my country and I damage the Russian Army which in fact has occurred for all three points. And I get western aid in the rebuilding phase when all is said and done.

Then in the Minsk agreements I apply more pressure to those remaining behind to either choose me or the separatists by showing that a rebuild/reform can only go forward under the Ukrainian flag.

Ukrainian leadership knows over the long haul the local population will at some point kick out the separatists by either moving to the west and or physically stating enough is enough. And it does appear in interviews the local population that are still in Donetsk is getting the message and openly talking out against the separatists and are just now realizing how badly they fell for Russian propaganda in face of all the destruction in the "creation of New Russia".

These are the first indicators that the "suckering in policy" is in fact starting to work.

Dear civilization, we have arrived! #RUS terrorists in #Yesaulivka, #Ukraine brought back quitrent. Demand at least 10kg potatoes per house.

#Russia terrorist on #donbas : "90% r Rus citizens. Where are the locals?" #Ukraine
http://politikum.in.ua/post/3oct2014/interview/953-deputat-rf-shturmuyuschiy-doneckiy-aeroport-v-ryadah-boevikov-dnr-nas-rasstrelivayut-v-upor.html …
pic.twitter.com/WUeleV2Im8

More internal "debates" between local Ukrainians and the mercenaries within the New Russia.

There are demonstrations and even armed scuffles between different groups and the local population in #Sverdlovsk, #Luhansk

AND then this has been reported--seems the mercenaries and the Russian troops are having a few "debates" among themselves.

On Oct 4, #Luhansk rebels fought Russian army for an hour at #Sverdlovka town, said governor Moskal. Reasons unclear.

http://inforesist.org/pod-luganskom-

What is interesting is that those that are very pro Russian have in fact never been greatly supported by the locals who they claim they are fighting for.

Yesterday in Donetsk they held what was billed as a major political rally celebrating the New Russian birthday by the separatists and only 50 people showed up waving one flag---the separatists claimed thousands would be coming but in the end there were barely 50.

Then this article today in the NYTs which seems to indicate that there are "others" outside of Putin who are in "an altered state of reality".

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/europe/rebels-in-eastern-ukraine-dream-of-reviving-soviet-heyday.html?ref=world&_r=0

They want to nationalize the industries and go to collective farming---first of all collective farming worked absolutely nowhere in the entire Soviet Union and former Eastern Bloc and are they then going to pay the owners for those factories because once nationalized because there is no bank who will loan them money to rebuild when the legal ownership is in doubt nor who is going to buy their products ie coal that is vastly over priced at 300 USD per ton vs say South African at 85 USD per ton. It was only 300 due to the subsidies from the Ukrainian government the oligarchs had negotiated in the past which is typical for Soviet style factories and or businesses.

OUTLAW 09
10-05-2014, 02:03 PM
It appears the key central battle of the "New Russia" war is being fought at the Donetsk airport--it is turning into a meat grinder for the Russia troops and mercenaries with their losses in the hundreds in wounded and killed.

The UA has been highly successful in defending the airport and or retaking parts after losing them and has been successful in maintaining a resupply effort to the troops there. Even in the face of constant "ceasefire violations" from artillery and MRLS shellings which were suppose to have stopped as the Russians indicated in their press releases?

In yday's battle for #Donetsk airport 3 Ukrainian servicemen died,2 went missing when Russians/separatists arrived in tanks disguised as UA

Longest video version so far (38 minutes).
Russian army forces' failed storming of #Donetsk #airport on 30.9.2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUt1qwtGog4

Russian army special forces commandos from South Ossetia and Abkhazia mainly involved.
"If the duck waves its flag, it is what it says."

#ATO fighters #DonetskAirport per social networks, seized T-64 tank during yesterday's assault
http://62.ua/news/634427
pic.twitter.com/9aCAfv3trl

Fight Oct 2 #DonetskAirport commandos destroyed Ru troops, killed 100's of fighters
http://unian.net/politics/991960-v-boyah-2-oktyabrya-za-donetskiy-aeroport-unichtojen-spetsnaz-rf-ubityi-sotni-boevikov-ochevidets.html
pic.twitter.com/VXMhM7l8ph

The airport seems to be turning into the "Alamo" although this "Alamo" seems to be getting re-enforced daily and is "winning".

So the "others" trying to take it over seemed to have now resorted to heavy stand off shelling with MRLSs and artillery which is in fact so inaccurate it is hitting the civilian population.

The Ukrainian army reports 2 assaults on #Donetsk #airport over the day.
I can see and hear #nonstop artillery/missile fire, every 2-5 mins.

OUTLAW 09
10-05-2014, 04:45 PM
Appears Moscow has a new name for mercenaries that are continuing to shell civilians and Ukrainian positions---even when they have Russian troops on the ground with them.

A new force turned up in East #Ukraine - "uncontrolled groups" apparently do the shelling and shooting. Unlike the controlled rebels. Easy

OUTLAW 09
10-05-2014, 05:04 PM
Appears now that Gorbatschow has swung over and is now fully supporting Putin's moves in the Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Putin's verbal attacks on the US.

Looks like he is attempting to rewrite his own history.

Taken from Focus Online today:

http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/25-jahre-mauerfall/vater-der-deutschen-einheit-gorbatschow-warnt-vor-neuem-kalten-krieg-usa-und-ihr-fuehrungsanspruch-sind-seuche_id_4180973.html

Gorbatschow: USA und ihr Fhrungsanspruch sind Seuche

Er gilt als einer der "Vter der Deutschen Einheit" und war bisher eher fr seine prowestlichen Haltung bekannt. Nun jedoch schlgt Michail Gorbatschow ganz andere Tne an. Er lobt Putins Vorgehen im Ukraine-Konflikt und schiet scharf gegen die USA. Wegen deren Fhrungsanspruch drohe ein neuer Kalter Krieg.

OUTLAW 09
10-05-2014, 05:15 PM
There were two small comments floating on the web today that if true are critical---it appears from around Putin's circle and Putin himself that--

1. he is going to accept the hit to his economy regardless how bad it gets

2. his goal is in fact New Russia and if the Ukraine is destroyed along the way so be it

3. he is now confident that NATO/EU/US will do nothing even if he pushes for the Odessa land corridor grab

In some aspects this is the same thinking being pushed by the Russian ultra nationalists that in fact are "fascists".

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 02:15 PM
Appears that the Ukraine is signaling via bloggers to Russia they are prepared for an Odessa land grab move before winter sets in as the temps in some areas are now at freezing and falling.

Ukr. military about a possible Russian invasion from #Crimea: "We have enough resources to meet the enemy and to give an adequate response."

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 02:26 PM
Appears there are now more Russian troops inside the Ukraine than the initial 1K many were talking about and more are arriving via convoys.

around 3,000 Russian troops in #Ukraine’s #Donbas
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/06/tymchuk-around-3000-russian-troops-in-ukraines-donbas/ …
pic.twitter.com/6F749ZFp8i

MASSIVE #RUSSIA CONVOY geo-located by @nvr_cry_wolf & @djp3tros S bypass Millerovo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK-we1tuoNw …
pic.twitter.com/KItzW44nLR

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 03:09 PM
Has Russian been actively preparing for war the last two years?

An interesting article on the topic.

http://www.bne.eu/content/story/comment-russia-actively-preparing-war

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 03:23 PM
Seems the Ukrainian Army has been actually using the ceasefire to rearm, refit, and reposition it forces along a better line of defense than existed when the Russian troops rolled in.

Seeing, what #Ukraine moves into #Donbas, it seems the war has just begun ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU8GKBnT4x4

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 03:49 PM
Seems the Russian government does not understand that the fighting and shelling around the Donetsk airport is being conducted by Russian mercenaries and Russia troops who are basically shelling and ground attacking in their attempts to retake the airport from the UA ever since the so called "ceasefire" went into effect.

The last time I checked there has been not a single Ukrainian Army attack outside the perimeter of the airfield.

From Interfax today:
16:42 PUTIN'S MEETING WITH RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL OFFICIALS ADDRESSED EXTREME FRAGILITY OF CEASEFIRE REGIME IN UKRAINE, ESPECIALLY IN DONETSK AIRPORT AREA - PESKOV

This is an another example of the Putin "altered state of reality" meaning Putin and his SC are "concerned about the ceasefire" and this comes in---it seems Putin and his Security Council "just cannot" get those mercenaries under control.

#BreakingVideo Russian terrorist/army unit attacks #Kurakhove, 30 km WEST of #Donetsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L22XJCxYtxU …

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 04:37 PM
So....Putin and his Security Council "discussed the weak ceasefire"---if they were so concerned then you would think this would then not be coming in on the net today.

BBC News - #Ukraine crisis: #Dnipropetrovsk prepares for rebel advance http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29503377 …

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 04:45 PM
the OSCE just cannot seem to find the right balance as they are really suppose to be neutral in the Ukraine--but again many rumors concerning their being to tight with Russia have been emerging.

It looks like they are staying in a Donetsk hotel where the Russian mercenaries are also staying.

This is roof of Park Inn hotel by #Radisson in #Doentsk where #OSCE monitors are residing. Are they impaired?

Seems there are eight highly trained individuals not sure who they belong to on the mercenary side also staying in the same hotel.

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 04:52 PM
Seems the Ukrainian Army has been actually using the ceasefire to rearm, refit, and reposition it forces along a better line of defense than existed when the Russian troops rolled in.

Seeing, what #Ukraine moves into #Donbas, it seems the war has just begun ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU8GKBnT4x4

From the Ukrainian NDSC today---appears the UA is now ready for a fight.

The question begs now to be asked---does Russia risk far more sanctions and no French carrier if they roll more troops into the Ukraine as this time it appears the UA is better positioned and better equipped than when they rolled in the first time? A plus is a small unnoticed fact that there has been a far deeper guerrilla war being waged by the UA via their SF, SBU and airborne units.

The Donetsk airport battle was in fact a defining moment and provided the UA some needed successes and in fact they beat up on some of the best mercenary units that are in the Donetsk.

NSDC: "Ukr. military did not retreat for a single meter [...] our military, starting w/ Sept. 5, defend the same positions"

Up to 10 #Russian armoured vehicles brought to #Donetsk airport as reinforcement. Ukr forces repelled 2attacks https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/570391349756191 …

Ukrainian soldiers, defending the frontline in #Nikishyne.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENlGWRhbMbw …
Use of T-64 for indirect fire! ...
pic.twitter.com/BZejgKi314

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 05:08 PM
Seems the Russian government does not understand that the fighting and shelling around the Donetsk airport is being conducted by Russian mercenaries and Russia troops who are basically shelling and ground attacking in their attempts to retake the airport from the UA ever since the so called "ceasefire" went into effect.

The last time I checked there has been not a single Ukrainian Army attack outside the perimeter of the airfield.

From Interfax today:
16:42 PUTIN'S MEETING WITH RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL OFFICIALS ADDRESSED EXTREME FRAGILITY OF CEASEFIRE REGIME IN UKRAINE, ESPECIALLY IN DONETSK AIRPORT AREA - PESKOV

This is an another example of the Putin "altered state of reality" meaning Putin and his SC are "concerned about the ceasefire" and this comes in---it seems Putin and his Security Council "just cannot" get those mercenaries under control.

#BreakingVideo Russian terrorist/army unit attacks #Kurakhove, 30 km WEST of #Donetsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L22XJCxYtxU …

Russia continues amassing troops at the Ukraine's border. VIDEO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11cROvKE8uA …

#BreakingNews Russian forces attacked the frontline town of #Zolote with Grad missiles today,killing one civilian and injuring several more.

On the side of #terrorists are fighting former convicts. Documents from wrecked tanks.
pic.twitter.com/XF0KYT4Zbo

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 05:14 PM
This is an interesting set of statistics if accurate.

Appears since 5 September ie yesterday 500 bodies were brought in to the Donetsk morgue---if 25 or so were civilians---WHO are the others?

The numbers tend to match those numbers that the UA stated were being killed (mercenary/Russian troops) during the various airport battles.

#Report: 30 people brought to the #Donetsk morgue today,500 since September,5th.
Less than 25 of those civilians acc. to the city administr

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 06:07 PM
From the Ukrainian NDSC today---appears the UA is now ready for a fight.

The question begs now to be asked---does Russia risk far more sanctions and no French carrier if they roll more troops into the Ukraine as this time it appears the UA is better positioned and better equipped than when they rolled in the first time? A plus is a small unnoticed fact that there has been a far deeper guerrilla war being waged by the UA via their SF, SBU and airborne units.

The Donetsk airport battle was in fact a defining moment and provided the UA some needed successes and in fact they beat up on some of the best mercenary units that are in the Donetsk.

NSDC: "Ukr. military did not retreat for a single meter [...] our military, starting w/ Sept. 5, defend the same positions"

Up to 10 #Russian armoured vehicles brought to #Donetsk airport as reinforcement. Ukr forces repelled 2attacks https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/570391349756191 …

Ukrainian soldiers, defending the frontline in #Nikishyne.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENlGWRhbMbw …
Use of T-64 for indirect fire! ...
pic.twitter.com/BZejgKi314

NOTE:: the battle video with the T64--check the quality of the uniforms and weapons being carried by the infantry---it appears that in fact the UA has been resupplied by someone and quickly--and they acted as well trained infantry--one carried a silenced assault rifle.

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 06:44 PM
"Ceasefire results"

One month of Ukraine 'ceasefire': violated by rebels 1200 times, 56 Ukraine soldiers & 32 civilians killed, @MFA_Ukraine says

Novosvitlivka, Lugansk reg, Russian tanks shelled houses at point-blank range.
http://youtu.be/puEuWFCsIY0?list=UUhO-BEEmSI_nMglyOv81K9Q …

In #Donetsk close to Spartak stadium #Russian terrorists' mortar or artillery unit got whacked just recently. Lingering explosions heard

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 06:59 PM
I had linked to a blogger's comments about three Russian tactical missile brigades pulling up close to the Ukrainian border last week---two of the three missile systems can go tactical nuclear if armed as such.

Then this today indicates that Russia is in fact ready to use tactical and or use the threat of tactical nuclear weapons if it thinks f an in fact "destroy" NATO ---all because NATO/EU/US had openly stated they will not use force to settle the Ukrainian problem.

Just maybe they should revisit that set of statements in the next few days.

October 06, 2014

Russian and Polish Analysts Concerned War in Ukraine Could Escalate and Approach Nuclear Level

By Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

Full Text: Financial Times

In European capitals I have visited recently – in particular, Warsaw and Berlin – certain ideas about the Ukraine crisis are regarded as established facts. The annexation of Crimea was an illegal act of aggression. There has been direct Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Indeed, the German government thinks that between 500 and 3,000 regular Russian troops have been killed in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

But in Mr [chairman of the Russian parliament's education committee Vyacheslav] Nikonov's world the crisis in Ukraine is the product of American aggression. There are indeed foreign troops and military advisers in Ukraine – but they are Americans, not Russians. These are common themes on Russian television.

The nationalist discourse in the Russian media is the cause of great alarm in the Baltic states and in Poland. However, there is one point where Russian and Polish analysis of the crisis meets. Officials and commentators on both sides of the looking glass agree that there is a real danger of the Ukrainian conflict morphing into a wider war between Russia and the west.

"This is the most dangerous moment in relations between Russia and the west since the Cuba missile crisis," Mr Nikonov argues. Dmitri Trenin, a less strident analyst who runs the Carnegie Moscow Center, also evokes the nuclear stand-off of 1962. Mr Trenin spells out a possible ladder of escalation in which western military support for Ukraine enrages Russia. In response, Russia might then mount a full invasion of Ukraine and even go nuclear – or, at least, use a nuclear-capable missile with a conventional warhead. . . .

Funnily enough, I had had the same scenario spelt out for me by a senior Polish official in Warsaw a couple of weeks earlier. The Poles worry that, having swallowed Crimea, Mr Putin will now be tempted to grab a larger part of Ukraine – perhaps the southern chunk of the country that the Russians have taken to referring to as "Novorossiya. . . ."

"Putin has worked the west out," says one gloomy Polish official. "He knows we won't use force." The darkest Polish scenario is also that Mr Putin might be tempted to go up to the nuclear brink by using conventionally armed missiles that could carry nuclear warheads. The dangers of such a policy hardly need spelling out. But destroying the credibility of Nato's security guarantee to the Balts – and therefore of Nato itself – would be a tremendous prize for Russia.


REMEMBER: I had stated here Russia has three inherent goals;
1. destroy/damage NATO has a credible threat
2. separate/split EU from the US
3. destroy/damage the EU

OUTLAW 09
10-06-2014, 07:34 PM
Minor Ukrainian success---cyber war victory---for some reason the Russian info war site Military Map has been down for four days.

Silver Surfer @RobPulseNews · Oct 5

Military maps is offline bc the #Russia|n side are:
1. Losing, or
2. Ukraine's army knocked out the server :-/

>Military maps, the Pro-#Russia|n live battle map that covers #Donetsk airport is OFFLINE.
I wonder why? :-/

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 06:33 AM
Keeping the Pressure on Mr. Putin

To Give Ukraine a Chance, Sanctions on Russia Must Continue


By THE EDITORIAL BOARDOCT. 3, 2014

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany knows a bit about dealing with Russia. She has spoken with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, more often than any other Western leader, and, more to the point, she grew up under Moscow’s yoke in East Germany. So when she says that it’s far too early to lift the sanctions imposed on Russia, Western capitals should listen.

But why, some may ask, should lucrative economic dealings with Russia be curtailed when a cease-fire with Ukraine was agreed to on Sept. 5 and the crisis has abated? Russia has pulled most of its forces out of Ukraine — not that it ever acknowledged having any there — and negotiations are underway over a buffer zone along the Ukraine-Russia border and about resumption of gas deliveries to Ukraine.

Here’s why: Even setting aside the illegal annexation of Crimea and continuing fighting around Donetsk, the fact is that in the absence of pressure from the United States and the European Union, Mr. Putin has little incentive to make any concessions to Ukraine. Freezing the conflict, with pro-Russian insurgents in effective control of Ukraine’s industrial southeast and negotiations plodding along indefinitely, suits him just fine.

One of Mr. Putin’s advantages in the conflict is that he has never revealed his hand. Even the annexation of Crimea was regarded in Western capitals as unlikely until it happened. In the Donbass region of southeastern Ukraine, Mr. Putin has simply denied that Russia is involved while actively backing Russia’s proxies with arms and soldiers. When Ukrainian forces actually began to get the upper hand over the insurgents, Russia sent in more troops and arms, finally forcing the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, to settle for a cease-fire that was essentially a tactical victory for Mr. Putin.

Mr. Putin’s plan now seems to be to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the European Union, achieve de facto recognition of the annexation of Crimea and keep Ukraine weak. Control over southeastern Ukraine is one lever; gas supplies, trade and Ukrainian debt are the others. Mr. Poroshenko hopes to gain enough breathing room to start straightening out Ukraine’s flailing economy so that he can start moving his country toward Europe.

While the fighting may have ebbed, the struggle continues, and will for a long time to come. The Western sanctions are hurting Russia’s sputtering economy, but that has not yet weakened popular support for Mr. Putin. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s economy continues to disintegrate.

Mr. Poroshenko has demonstrated courage and realism in dealing with Russia while insisting that his goal remains to join the European Union. If Ukraine is to have a fighting chance, the European Union and the United States must not waver in their support for Kiev or in their sanctions on Russia. “Sometimes in history one has to be prepared for the long haul,” Ms. Merkel said recently, “and not ask after four months if it still makes sense to keep up our demands.”

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 06:43 AM
More open source evidence turned up by bloggers that Russian T72s came straight from Russia and were not captured from the UA.

Russian GRU/FSB should really pay more attention to their social media---it is a major intel hole.

Some Russian rebel T-72 tanks have had the #H2200 Russian Rail Transport marking removed, though not all.

Separatists using Russian T-72s supplied by Moscow via rail in the battle for Donetsk airport #Ukraine #H2200

#H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: Old Russian T-72 tank on rail car in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Russia. Destination: #Ukraine. "

#H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: Another old Russian T-72 in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Russia. NOTE Russian markings H2200 "

H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: BREAKING: Separatists training with Russian T-72's at Russian base in Kuzminka Rostov Ob. "

#H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: Russian T-72 tanks being offloaded from rail at Pokrovskoye, Rostov ob. Loaded on trucks. "

Proof that T-72 tanks used by Russian rebels are supplied by the Russian Army via rail #H2200

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4d3YXHFx_Y&feature=youtu.be&t=11m45s …

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 06:50 AM
Seems the Russian government does not want the Ukraine to get back to combat---maybe out of fear that they can no longer control their own mercenaries and the potential loss of more Russian troops.

From RIA today:

WASHINGTON, October 7 (RIA Novosti) - US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland's visit to the Ukrainian capital Kiev indicates that Washington is worried that the Ukrainian government is hesitating to gain control over the country's East militarily, Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Binghamton University in New York James Petras has told RIA Novosti.

"Nuland, who is considered by most experts in the United States a neo-conservative extremist, was the architect of the coup [in Ukraine]. Since the stalemate has taken place, Washington has increased its flow of advisors to western Ukraine and I think that Nuland is particularly anxious to shift Kiev from diplomacy to warfare", Petras said Monday.

He also noted that Nuland's main goal in Kiev is "to take [Ukrainian President] Mr. [Petro] Poroshenko to task for spending so much time talking and not as much time planning and strategizing for a new phase in the military dimensions of the conflict."

The expert went further by arguing that the militarization of foreign policy has become the principle strategy of Washington.

In addition, Professor Petras stated that the United States is offering Kiev very limited economic aid and is particularly interested in privatization of the Ukrainian economy.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland have discussed the implementation of the Minsk agreements, aimed at resolving the situation in southeastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian president's official website reported Monday.

The September 5 meeting of the Contact Group of Ukraine resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian government and pro-independence forces, which came into force that same day. The sides agreed on a nine-point memorandum, specifying the implementation of the ceasefire during another meeting of the group.

davidbfpo
10-07-2014, 11:43 AM
I expect citing Professor James Petras by RIA is not really a surprise, once you take a peek at his own views - illustrated politley on:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Petras

From this armchair describing any member of the Obama administration as 'a neo-conservative extremist' acted as a warning signal to ignore the good professor.

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 03:38 PM
It appears that actually many current Russian mercenaries trying to create the New Russia seem to not quite get the idea that where the Ukrainian Army is sitting is in fact Ukrainian territory and all their talk does not change that simple fact.

I guess they have not heard that the UA, SBU, NG, and Independent BNs do in fact arrest mercenaries wherever they find them so if they just walk in with a ballot box under their arm will make things a lot easier than having to shoot at them.

Ukraine Liveblog: Separatists To Hold Their Own Elections -- Even In Territory Controlled By Ukraine

http://bit.ly/1t1cMzx

DNR election chief Lyagin: "we r planning election in kramatorsk, debaltsevo, mariupol. I'm an optimist" And believer in ceasefire obviously

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 04:09 PM
I expect citing Professor James Petras by RIA is not really a surprise, once you take a peek at his own views - illustrated politley on:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Petras

From this armchair describing any member of the Obama administration as 'a neo-conservative extremist' acted as a warning signal to ignore the good professor.

David---the theme of the press release is interesting ie the Ukrainian Army going back on the offensive.

If one really thinks about it---even with Russian troops assistance and the Russian military handing tanks, artillery and BM21s/27s to the mercenaries they have actually been unable in direct one on one fighting with the UA, NG and Independent BNs to oust them from any of their held positions. and even the Russian troops when they inject themselves are taking loses---German estimates are up to 3000 which ties into the 4K that has been mentioned by Russian Mothers of the Military sites.

Currently the Ukrainians are still holding onto four strategic locations even though surrounded and have lost not one of them ---especially the airport battle which about wiped out three critical Russian mercenary groups who had been the backbone of the mercenary groupings.

The pullback of the UA to defendable positions has given them the breathing space to rearm and refit and reposition themselves into even better blocking positions.

NOW it has finally dawned on the mercenaries that the "special status" that the Rada passed has in fact not been officially signed thus is not law---the Ukrainian President is holding that over their heads in order to see if they would hold to the agreed to "ceasefire" which they did not ---over 1200 attacks since 5 September.

It is also dawning on them after their massive loses during the airport battle that the UA can in fact fight well---Ukrainian artillery strike precision for some unknown reason has vastly improved and a modern Ukrainian built T64 series has started showing up in the forward areas which is more than a match for anything the Russians have provided.

Then this today from RIA where again the mercenaries are voicing the "fear" of renewed combat operations by the Ukrainians.

From RIA today:

Novorossiya People's Front member accuses Poroshenko of breaching Minsk deal

DONETSK. Oct 7 (Interfax) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's reluctance to sign a law granting "special" status to Donbas comes in violation of the September 5 Minsk agreements, Denis Pushilin, who coordinates socioeconomic issues within the Novorossiya People's Front, told reporters on Tuesday.

"Poroshenko is clearly delaying the signing of the law that grants special status to Donbas even though the Rada voted in favor of adopting it on September 16. It is a direct violation of Point 3 of the Minsk peace protocol. The Minsk agreements will become invalid if Donbas does not receive special status," Pushilin said.

This situation may mean that Kyiv plans to reject the peace plan and could be preparing a new army operation against the self-proclaimed Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk (LPR) People's Republics, he said.

"If the special status law is not signed, an invasion [of the militia-controlled DPR and LPR by the Ukrainian army] will become inevitable," he said.

Pushilin also suggested that the Ukrainian authorities are "only playing for time and are using this entire peace process to get ready for a new war."

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 04:36 PM
Some here did not go for my statement that Putin was "suckered into the Ukraine" by the Ukrainian President.

Think about it;

1. Russia would not have initially come in if the mercenaries had not been on the verge of losing---and the Ukrainian leadership kept pushing their ATO even in the face of knowing it would cause the Russians to enter--wonder why they kept pushing

2. without Russia coming into the eastern Ukraine and that move was verified by the global media--the sectorial sanctions would never have been passed by the EU

3. the sheer number of killed, wounded and missing Russian troops that Putin paid for a buffer zone is telling and the heavy Russian equipment that has been passed to the mercenaries has not changed the battlefield to their advantage---actually they have not been able to take over the four enclaves and the airport despite heavy ceasefire violations to the tune of over 1200 attacks

4. the west has stepped up and will help with the rebuilding efforts of the Donbas and with new energy efforts by the Ukrainian government

5.the sanctions together with a crashing oil price has now hampered Russian ability to do just about anything

Today from the Russian Finance Ministry concerning the planned massive Russian military spending up to 2020.

Finance Minister Siluanov: #Russia will not be able to afford its current level of military spending in the long term

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/508569.html …

6. if Putin makes a grab for the Odessa land corridor the EU is in fact threatening more far reaching sectorial sanctions on Russia

So in the end---even though the Ukraine is struggling with the lost portions of the Donbas---Putin had wanted it all---the lost of Ukrainian territory could have been far worse than it is.

So again did Putin get "suckered" as it looks like the Ukrainian side anticipated many of this moves before he made them and took the necessary responses in advance--however planned and or unplanned.

Battered Russian economy faces more pain over Ukraine: IMF

Moscow (AFP) - Russia's already battered economy will struggle to recover from the fallout of the crisis in Ukraine as uncertainty looks set to drag down growth around the former Soviet Union, the IMF warned on Tuesday.

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 05:01 PM
Can and or does anyone here know this particular US quoted commenter in the following RIA article---cannot find him anywhere on the net? (Added by Moderator: try:http://www.andrewkreig.com/index.php/bio )

Andrew Kreid, Washington based author and analyst, told RIA Novosti.

Later in the article they either misspelled his name of named him correctly--Kreig

From RIA today:

WASHINGTON, October 7 (RIA Novosti) - US Assistant Secretary of State's visit to the Ukrainian capital might bring the money for covert military assistance and propaganda efforts in the conflict-torn country, Andrew Kreid, Washington based author and analyst, told RIA Novosti.

"Ambassador Nuland and her contacts in the intelligence agencies and so-called "non-government" and "democracy-building" organizations can provide substantial, hard-to-trace support far beyond the $50 million that the White House announced," Kreig told RIA Novosti on Monday. "Much of this money would likely be covert military assistance and propaganda efforts."

The analyst underlined that such covert patterns have been used for years all over the world.

"So, it is highly likely that their use would continue," he said. "The difficulty now, however, is that the amounts needed are so vast and the exposure risks would be grave because of public denials that such secret help has been occurring."

Kreig added that the meeting's participants provided optimistic public comments despite the difficult financial circumstances Kiev is facing.

"Behind the scenes, participants are doubtless strategizing how to obtain more money for Kiev and public relations strategies," he said.

"The situation for the public and ultimately the leaders is especially difficult because Poroshenko's high-profile visit to the United States [on September 18] resulted merely in a White House promise of $50 million in aid through 2015. The International Monetary Fund predicted that Ukraine will need $19 billion then," he explained.

Commenting on the importance of the meeting between Poroshenko and Nuland on Monday, Kreig said one needs to look beyond the formal titles of the individuals to assess their real-world strength.

"Nuland is stronger in Washington than her title indicates. She, her husband and their other family members are favorite instruments of the bipartisan, pro-war military and Wall Street factions that helped orchestrate the Ukrainian government's overthrow," he explained.

The expert noted that Nuland's rhetoric contrasts with the abject apology to Turkey that Vice President Joseph Biden immediately provided on October 4 when Turkey protested Biden's embarrassing comment about Turkey's help for Islamist fighters in Syria.

"Thus Nuland, an unelected official held over from the Bush administration, suffered less public reprisal than the United States elected vice president," he said. "As for [President] Poroshenko, his status as a leader may be only a temporary because of the dire economic, battlefield and other strategic circumstances where he has led his followers."

Poroshenko and Nuland discussed the implementation of the Minsk agreement aimed at resolving the situation in the southeastern Ukraine on Monday. According to the statement on Ukraine's president's official website, the parties have reviewed such issues as the necessity of establishing full control over the Ukrainian-Russian border, the necessity of taking urgent measures to avoid a humanitarian disaster, and the importance of restoring the broadcast of Ukrainian TV channels in Donetsk and Luhansk.

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 05:12 PM
Bloggers have been tracking this particular Russia GRU officer since his appearance on Russian social media indicating he had been in Kyiv on 4 October 2014--although he was depicted in his GRU uniform later in October 2014---so did he participate in initial GRU recon work done in the Ukraine before the Crimea?

+ here's #Russia|n Special forces compilation war porn from east #Ukraine - This is just Milchalovs GRU unit #Luhansk
http://youtu.be/-RS41azBnIQ?t=16s …

The FINALE video I'm posting in a minute.. it is a compilation of Milchakov & his units war porn. They're v. well trained. No rag-tag milita

He is the commander of 4th battalion Luhansk (but he's GRU really) says he once they capture Donetsk they will move onto Odessa & Mariupol.

And here it is. Interview from 29th Sept, on Luhansk tv. In Russian. Sorry no eng subs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7NPXjB4_rs@OnlineMagazin …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7NPXjB4_rs …

Video: Milchakovs "LPR" Batman unit at the Soviet style military parade in #Donetsk. Surreal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw32uwij-3Y …





Silver Surfer @RobPulseNews · 19h 19 hours ago

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 07:52 PM
Russian troop and mercenary push outside of what was previously held.


#BreakingNews Russian forces attacked #Hirske this evening, 8 km NORTH of #Pervormaisk.
Meaning, Russians push on!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyLg0frMxAY

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 07:07 AM
More on Russian ultra nationalist groups in Russia and how they are influencing the Russian drive into the Ukraine.

Russian ultranationalist Okhlobystin. He has 994,000 followers, and is calling to seize Mariupol, Odessa and Kharkiv

https://twitter.com/PsykerO1477/st

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 12:05 PM
The Ukraine, OSCE, and Russia in the Trilateral group agreed to a so called "silencing of the guns" phase that went into effect yesterday at 1800.

The shelling never did stop from the mercenary side although the UA refused to return fire.

Once the shellings picked up again by the mercenary side the UA now fires in response to their shellings.

So much for trusting Russia and the OSCE.

NSDC: Trilateral monitoring group agreed on "silence" ystday, but violation of the truce-attacks and shelling continued from terrorists side

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 12:21 PM
The former DNR leader the Russian Girkin who was "vacationed" and who was sent back to Russia is bashing the current DNR leadership as being corrupt.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/07/ex-terrorist-igor-girkin-blasts-novorossiya-leadership/

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 12:31 PM
Russian FM statement today via Interfax seems to mean the Russians are not supplying arms and fighters into eastern Ukraine and that the mercenaries where to start leaving the Ukraine--all part of the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements so I am unsure just what Russian means by "Russia helps fulfillment of Minsk agreements".

The Russian FM also complained that the Ukrainians had not started a dialogue with the separatists---but also in the Minsk agreement was the speedy exchange of POWs (all within two days) which the mercenaries have again stopped, it also meant a ceasefire was to be implemented and it was also designed to start the flow of mercenaries back out of the Ukraine ---and none of that has happened so just WHY does the Russian FM put the cart before the horse?

Seems like the Russians tend to forget most of what was agreed to and only focus on what they actually want---they want it to appear that the eastern separatists are an equal government with the Ukrainian government for negotiations but that is not the case per Minsk 1 and 2.

From Interfax today:

13:36 Russia helps fulfillment of Minsk agreements to normalize situation in Ukraine, not to get sanctions lifted - Lavrov

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 03:19 PM
Russian FM statement today via Interfax seems to mean the Russians are not supplying arms and fighters into eastern Ukraine and that the mercenaries where to start leaving the Ukraine--all part of the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements so I am unsure just what Russian means by "Russia helps fulfillment of Minsk agreements".

The Russian FM also complained that the Ukrainians had not started a dialogue with the separatists---but also in the Minsk agreement was the speedy exchange of POWs (all within two days) which the mercenaries have again stopped, it also meant a ceasefire was to be implemented and it was also designed to start the flow of mercenaries back out of the Ukraine ---and none of that has happened so just WHY does the Russian FM put the cart before the horse?

Seems like the Russians tend to forget most of what was agreed to and only focus on what they actually want---they want it to appear that the eastern separatists are an equal government with the Ukrainian government for negotiations but that is not the case per Minsk 1 and 2.

From Interfax today:

13:36 Russia helps fulfillment of Minsk agreements to normalize situation in Ukraine, not to get sanctions lifted - Lavrov

The Russians and OSCE want and get a "extra" ceasefire attempt yesterday by the Ukrainian Army which they held to starting at 1800---then the mercenaries use the time to move equipment and troops into the supposedly 30 km agreed upon zone---so again why trust anything Russia and or the separatists are saying, writing or doing.

Azov Battalion cmdr confirms that during ceasefire #Russia|n forces moved in on #Mariupol #Ukraine violating agreed upon 30 km buffer zone

Reports that #Russia|n forces brought a huge number of new tanks 46 and other vehicles including GRAD's to #Bezimenne, not far from #Mariupol

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 04:06 PM
It appears that when the Ukrainians get solid intelligence they act on it via artillery and or in this case using an alleged Tochka U ballistic missile on a captured Ukrainian Army base being used by the mercenaries to launch attacks on the Donetsk airport.

There had been a few days ago a couple of blog comments about a super large explosion in and or near Donetsk. But no one had any info on the explosion ie what it was and or what caused it.

Then a few social media videos came up on the net that made no sense in their English comments but leave it up to open source research done via ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl to piece it together.

Appears to have been well over 475 mercenaries killed when the former base was flattened by the missile.

BREAKING In #Donetsk Kalinin hospital morgue ALONE 427 bodies are stacked. Plus the ones who has remained on territory of #DonetskAirport.

After news of 427 bodies in Kalinin hospital was revealed a #Donetsk PR "minister" arrived, made short & utterly obscenity clear "no leaks".

9:41 AM - 8 Oct 2014

Again great open source work done by:

ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Now one can fully understand just why the Russian mercenaries have actually given up in attempting to take over the airport--it was a major military loss especially on the manpower and tank side and the Ukrainian government still has presence in the Donetsk.

mirhond
10-08-2014, 06:57 PM
http://afrika-sl.livejournal.com/61054.html

Russian volunteer about Donetzk airport:

"What is going there is a contest of two lunacies - militias loose men on daily basis in vain attaks because of shelling from Peski and Avdeevka, things would turn hairy for them if Ukr. command wouldn't do the same dumb thing by sending armor through enemy controlled territory to airstrip just to be destroyed. Tough guys from both sides enjoy playing Counter-Srtike offline in the ruins of airport with even scores".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwfgJxUKNiw&list=UULX-a4XtNcbGbTXVO31oIBw

0:50 Demobee asks president when he lets them to go home.

ps. A moments of fun - historical lessions with congressman L'ashko

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmjgV5OXOA0&list=UUYW4a864pD7k2QDMrpxfZMw&index=37

"Mr. president, when you say that you brought us peace, you reenact prime-minister Chamberlian, who signed a peace with Putin in 1939 " :D

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 12:14 PM
AND the fighting continues on and on ---from ceasefire nothing to be seen for miles and the Russians "hope" the ceasefire might take hold at some point?

HOPE---the new Russian/Putin strategy?

BREAKING Confirmed - Ukraine army 93rd brigade destroyed one of Zoopark artillery radars. Thus, it is in #Ukraine.
pic.twitter.com/VXDoMfEp5R

BREAKING UPDATE #Russian army has brought 2 Zoopark artillery radars to #Ukraine. One of them is destroyed by #ATO forces

Zoopark artillery radar is perfect tool for guiding artillery precision munition shells on battlefield

BREAKING In #Horlivka in hands of #Russian army artillery radar Зоопарк (Zoo) has been spotted. Needs to be confirmed
pic.twitter.com/YC3LeZvP0O

Motorola issues vid for Russians. "Only aftr fighting here a couple of months do you have right to call self Russian"
http://bit.ly/1CXqZPa

BREAKING On Oct 8 massive #Russian army column (10 T72s, APCs, BMP, tented Ural trucks) showed up in #Zhdanivka, via Yenakiyeve to #Horlivka

#Donetsk airport - again under attack by pro-#Russia forces despite all efforts to secure ceasefire. 1 UA soldier killed via @NSDC_ua

Russia increased shellings, surveillance activity, movements last days, and now @kp_steshin is back to Donetsk. Russia will strike soon

Intelligence reports on the movement of captures heavy armored vehicles with UA signs from occupied Crimea to East

This morning #DonetskAirport was shelled by #Russian terrorists. #Ukraine artillery hit back. Destroyed the terrorist battery

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 12:17 PM
comrade mirond---noticed the Russian military channel is now admitting Russian troops are getting killed in the Ukraine.

Russian military channel Zvezda reports about a soldier from elite unit in Samara who died in #Donetsk. Via @tvrain

pic.twitter.com/N1WbkuO1kx

OUTLAW 09
10-10-2014, 06:52 AM
Yesterday must have been a very frustrating day for the Russian military leadership --several of their newest pieces of military equipment were pin point destroyed and someone passed on the targeting info for a major DPR commander who is a pure Russian military officer in the GRU.


#Ukrainian army at #Debaltsevo captured Deputy Commander of Staff of "Donbas Republic", senior #Russian officer

http://news.liga.net/news/politics/3616920-sily_ato_zaderzhali_odnogo_iz_rukovoditeley_boevik ov_smi.htm …

OUTLAW 09
10-10-2014, 10:13 AM
Seems like the Russian military is no giving up on getting some satisfaction ie a victory---another elite RF Brigade is spotted via social media inside the Ukraine---ie it seems they came but have not been pulled out according to Minsk 1 and 2 agreements.

#Recent pix: The 33rd mountain infantry brigade of the Russian Federation's armed forces is still in #Ukraine !
https://www.facebook.com/danylyuk/posts/725650777509087 …
pic.twitter.com/xBYxVOIQya

Mercenary truck carrying both the mercenary colors and the RF colors on the cab.
A militant truck in #donetsk yesterday
http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/10-october-a-militant-truck-in-donetsk-yesterday …
pic.twitter.com/RZ9AnaG9w6

OUTLAW 09
10-10-2014, 10:18 AM
Now even NATO is sensing a big push by Russian troops and their mercenaries--probably tied to the 14 Oct RADA vote on ditching the Ukrainian non aligned status.

Conflict Reporter @Conflict_Report
#BRK @NATO Dep. Sec. Gen. A. Vershbow: "There may be a serious deterioration of the situation [in eastern #Ukraine] in the coming days." ...

The crisis in the Middle East has overshadowed, at least for now, the situation in Ukraine, There is a fragile ceasefire is in place but the violence still continues on a lower level. Could the Ukraine crisis turn into a frozen conflict?

I think that's a serious danger right now, and I think that is what Russia is trying to do in eastern Ukraine. From our perspective at NATO, and I think this goes even beyond NATO to the EU, we are all insisting that Russia live up to every aspect of the Minsk agreement and not allow it to be implemented selectively. The ceasefire was supposed to freeze the conflict in place of positions since September 19. But of course the separatists with continuous Russian military support that is flowing across the uncontrolled international border have been escalating their attacks on the Donetsk airport.

That is unacceptable. We need to see full implementation which includes Ukrainians getting the ability to control their own international border. Russia needs to make clear to the separatists that it does not support the elections that they are purporting to hold on November 9, which would have no legitimacy and are inconsistent with the Minsk protocol. It's a very fluid situation. The ceasefire is not holding in some areas and there could be a serious deterioration in the coming days.

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 07:04 AM
Interesting development from Putin--

1. is it a smokescreen in order to get his stock market and Rubel under control
2. is it a smokescreen because he is running out of money from oil sales
3. is it a smokescreen because he wants his French carrier
4. is it a smokescreen because actually his new UW military strategy failed because of moves by the Ukrainians to counter it militarily

OR is it exactly as this blog indicate--only temporary in order to gain time because he can move back in any time he wants to?

BUT notice not a single word was wasted on bringing out the Russian troops still inside the Ukraine.

Of course, one should never underestimate Putin's strategic thinking. May actually pullback troops (temporarily) to buy 'goodwill' & time.

No one should be getting excited or feeling optimistic about the news that Putin ordered troops home from "exercises in Rostov region."

BUT THEN is still going on--so really is it simply a smokescreen after all?

Please don't forget that Russia is still attacking Donetsk airport on a daily basis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-09/ukraine-sees-shelling-worsen-as-merkel-says-truce-not-met.html …
pic.twitter.com/PzUpF1q6x6

Sadly, barely a mention in the media that Putin is now moving Nuclear weaponry into Crimea.

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 08:18 AM
ss again if one judges Russian actions by their own words--Putin orders troops back to their bases but basically ignores these inside the Ukraine.

AND then yesterday Russian places roadblocks in the way of the very OSCE they pushed to monitor the "ceasefire".

Russia May Block Use of Drones To Monitor Ceasefire

17:47 (GMT)

Literally every day since the ceasefire was negotiated over one month ago it has been broken by Russian-backed separatists. The whole world is watching, and doing little to nothing, as the international airport in Donetsk, which has always been under the Ukrainian government's control, is attacked every day by Russian-backed militants. The Interpreter has documented many instances of separatist attacks killing civilians. The surrounded Ukrainian troops have desperately fired back. This week, evidence suggests that both Ukrainian and separatist rockets killed civilians in part of Donetsk.

Ukrainian President Poroshenko also warned that without a significant ramp-up of OSCE monitors, there was no way that the ceasefire could be properly monitored by the international community. According to Poroshenko, there are currently 270 OSCE monitors, only 90 of which are in eastern Ukraine, and there would have to be at least 1,500 to properly ensure all sides were complying with the ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland said that the ceasefire was being broken, and as long as that was the case the monitoring mission could not even occur, a statement that lives in the kind of diplomatic paradox which we have come to expect by watching this crisis unfold.

Germany and France have pledged to use drones to help monitor the ceasefire, but even those plans face substantial resistance from Russia. The Wall Street Journal reports:

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Friday that his government had submitted a proposal a day earlier that would allow for two drones to be in the air at all times to observe the truce between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia rebels.

But it was unclear whether the plan was viable, Mr. Steinmeier said, since both Berlin and Paris also want to send armed personnel to provide security for the teams operating the drones—a deployment that could prompt objections from Moscow and faces a possible legislative hurdle in Kiev. (More: Russian Rock Stars Run Afoul of Kremlin Over Ukraine)

“I don’t want to hide the fact that political and legal questions must still be resolved,” Mr. Steinmeier said.

This is the situation in which Ukraine has been stuck for the last month and a half. With conflicts raging in the Middle East, with ebola outbreaks in West Africa and, on occasion, elsewhere, and with American mid-term election season in full swing, the harsh reality of Ukraine is simply not catching the attention of Western people, Western media, or, as a result, Western leaders.

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 10:49 AM
Appears that the Russian announcement to pull back troops to their home bases was actually a "smokescreen".

Here is the more honest reason.

Putin orders 17,600 troops "on training" in Rostov region nr Ukraine border to pullback, return to base. Why? October conscription rotation!

What is more interesting are the "contract Russian troops" since their "contracts expire mid November " and winter is coming.

There are some that are saying Putin is lulling the western media and leadership as the units are being swapped out have been scheduled for "winter training"--wonder where?

October is conscription cohort demob and replenish time. Expect 17.000 fresh troops back in Rostov for winter training

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 11:02 AM
For those here are SWJ that have "doubted" that Russian troops were in the Ukraine before say late July.

Brave Ukrainian detects and follows a Russian invasion army T-64 in #Luhansk city in June 14.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw5Sni6FtkY …

pic.twitter.com/m3W77jty21

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 11:35 AM
It seems the only one holding to the "ceasefire period of silence" are the Ukrainians--certainly not the Russian mercenaries.

So for all of the Russian press releases and the DPR releases the last two days while Putin was at the CIS conference that they were going to hold to the "ceasefire" --again nothing more than "smokescreens" trying to lull western media into thinking things are going well with Minsk 1 and 2.

#BreakingFootage Russian invaders fired a heavy MLRS salvoe vs- #Donetks #airport 10 minutes ago.
pic.twitter.com/1ni1ZmLToE

#Luhansk residential areas shelled despite of ceasfire. Over & over! Oct12 ,2014
http://youtu.be/tLa5cxoNq8c

Heavy artillery fire can be heard on the #Donetsk live stream. Large explosions every few seconds.

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 11:48 AM
Since approx. six weeks--the Russian Army has been sending in ever increasing numbers of complete SF and GRU BNs from the elite of their elite SF units--that indicates a major shift in their thinking.

Phase Six of the new Russian military UW strategy--New Generation Warfare:

Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance
and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special
operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service
intelligence, and industrial espionage.

That does not indicate a backing off by Putin---more like a doubling down.

#Komaxidze: #Russian army 45th SOF regiment, unit #28337 in #Rostov oblast @ #Ukraine border.
https://www.facebook.com/irakli.komaxidze/posts/673220996124483 …

BREAKING #Russian army professional SOF units in #Luhansk has been disguised as ГБР "Бэтмэн" & ДШРГ "РУСИЧ".

pic.twitter.com/IOnxbBsb1e

ДШРГ stands for Диверсионно-Штурмовая Развед Группа (Subversion-Assault Reconnaissance Unit). Sounds like an Oldsmobile for a Trabant.

So if #Russia sends its #MIA #SOF #GROM to #Luahnsk airport & names into unpronounceable jabber then it's LEGIT!
pic.twitter.com/Xbkp9JmJ4N

#Ukraine army An-2 planes on #Luhansk air filed photographed by #Russian #FSB #SOF #GROM unit soldiers.

BREAKING #Russian #FSB #SOF #GROM unit soldiers in #Luhansk disguised as GBR "Batman" showcasing assets.

BREAKING More #Russian #FSB #SOF unit #GROM soldiers reported on Oct 1 in #Ukraine. Honouring the #Minsk protocols?

1st picture of Timur Gromov fr #Russian #FSB SOF unit #GROM on Oct 9 in #Ukraine. Lost Ivan.
http://lostivan.com/ivan/151

BREAKING Tonight 2 #FSB opers in #Donetsk got lost. Credible news coming the other terro unit send regards to RF FSB.

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 07:07 PM
Since approx. six weeks--the Russian Army has been sending in ever increasing numbers of complete SF and GRU BNs from the elite of their elite SF units--that indicates a major shift in their thinking.

Phase Six of the new Russian military UW strategy--New Generation Warfare:

Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance
and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special
operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service
intelligence, and industrial espionage.

That does not indicate a backing off by Putin---more like a doubling down.

#Komaxidze: #Russian army 45th SOF regiment, unit #28337 in #Rostov oblast @ #Ukraine border.
https://www.facebook.com/irakli.komaxidze/posts/673220996124483 …

BREAKING #Russian army professional SOF units in #Luhansk has been disguised as ГБР "Бэтмэн" & ДШРГ "РУСИЧ".

pic.twitter.com/IOnxbBsb1e

ДШРГ stands for Диверсионно-Штурмовая Развед Группа (Subversion-Assault Reconnaissance Unit). Sounds like an Oldsmobile for a Trabant.

So if #Russia sends its #MIA #SOF #GROM to #Luahnsk airport & names into unpronounceable jabber then it's LEGIT!
pic.twitter.com/Xbkp9JmJ4N

#Ukraine army An-2 planes on #Luhansk air filed photographed by #Russian #FSB #SOF #GROM unit soldiers.

BREAKING #Russian #FSB #SOF #GROM unit soldiers in #Luhansk disguised as GBR "Batman" showcasing assets.

BREAKING More #Russian #FSB #SOF unit #GROM soldiers reported on Oct 1 in #Ukraine. Honouring the #Minsk protocols?

1st picture of Timur Gromov fr #Russian #FSB SOF unit #GROM on Oct 9 in #Ukraine. Lost Ivan.
http://lostivan.com/ivan/151

BREAKING Tonight 2 #FSB opers in #Donetsk got lost. Credible news coming the other terro unit send regards to RF FSB.


The BREAKING article on #GRU 14th SOF unit in #Ukraine by #Komaxidze now in #English.

http://burkonews.info/new-siberian-guests-border-ukraine-14th-brigade-special-forces-main-intelligence-department/ …
pic.twitter.com/BAOD7EAE83

Last night in #Sverdlovks, #Ukraine 10 #Russian #GRU opers got killed. #Ukraine DRG made sure not from heart attacks for sure.

OUTLAW 09
10-13-2014, 12:11 PM
About a month into the Crimea problem the US in a little noticed move did a
6M barrel crude oil sale out of the strategic reserves---the US argued it had to do with the maintenance of the depots---some analysts stated then that if the US maintained the rate of sales through say four months the overall market price for sour crude ie Russian oil could drop into the 80s ranges.

Then about two months ago a really little noticed single one prargraph Russian new release came and went and was never backed up by others which is standard practice--this PR simply stated --- a named Russian official from inside the oil industry stated "he felt that the KSA would not "play" games with the crude oil prices.

It was rather unusual and simply did not fit in the normal Russian news Pr flow for that day and it did not tie into any other PRs for that week or the rest of the month.

IT appeared to be a "please please do not sink the oil prices" kind of plea.

I mentioned both articles here in SWJ and indicated had the oil price been forced far faster downwards Russian troops would not be in the Ukraine--and took massive heat in some comments for thinking that to be possible.

THEN this today hit the news cycle---and behold the KSA is "playing" with the oil prices especially sour crude---what Russia exports.

I had also pointed out that the KSA has been teed off at Russia for a long while concerning their support for Assad especially on the military weapons support side of the house---also many did not like that statement as well.

Saudi Arabia's Oil Price 'Manipulation' Could Sink The Russian Economy

Business Insider
By Tomas Hirst
1 hour ago

The vice-president of Russia's state-owned oil behemoth Rosneft has accused Saudi Arabia of manipulating the oil price for political reasons. Mikhail Leontyev was quoted in Russian media as saying:

Prices can be manipulative. First of all, Saudi Arabia has begun making big discounts on oil. This is political manipulation, and Saudi Arabia is being manipulated, which could end badly.

The news comes as Reuters reports Saudi officials have been privately admitting to oil market participants that they are comfortable with lower oil prices. According to the news service, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is willing to accept prices as low as $80 a barrel for as much as the next two years.

NOTE: the Russian budget cannot take a hit to their oil pricing of 80 for two straight years.

Falling prices are of particular concern to Russia. Russia needs high oil prices to buoy its economy. The country has seen its economic performance slow under the weight of sanctions over Ukraine and weakening domestic demand. The Russian Central Bank forecasts growth over 2014 to be a meager 0.4%, improving marginally to between 0.9%-1.1% in 2015.

The problem is that Russia's latest budget requires oil prices to average at least $100 a barrel in order to cover the government's spending promises. The government already needs to borrow around $7 billion from foreign investors next year and as much as 1.1 trillion rubles ($27.2 billion) from domestic investors. Given the country's sanctions-imposed isolation from international bond markets, any additional borrowing would be a big concern for policymakers in Moscow.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has already acknowledged that the budget forecasts for both Russian GDP growth and oil prices are "optimistic." During the Reuters Russia Investment Summit in September he was quoted as saying:

There are risks to economic growth rates. It is a rather optimist forecast; there are risks to oil price. Without a doubt, this and the next year we will have to try very hard to ensure the planned growth rates.

If the forecast growth fails to materialize and the oil price continues its slide it could force the Russian government into an embarrassing retreat on spending commitments and increase the country's economic woes.

OUTLAW 09
10-13-2014, 02:32 PM
The fighting around the Donetsk airport still continues---with a reported large tank battle today which the defenders pushed back with artillery support.

BREAKING #Russian terrorists have received strict order to seize the #DonetskAirport before meeting btwn #Poroshenko & #Putin

New #Russia|n MID Spetsnaz #GRU unit m/u 74854 from #Khabarovsk seen on #Ukraine's east border
http://burkonews.info/new-siberian-guests-border-ukraine-14th-brigade-special-forces-main-intelligence-department/ …
pic.twitter.com/RqPvGsBMMr

OUTLAW 09
10-13-2014, 03:38 PM
If one still stay's inside the Ukraine and orders more troops to enter which is still ongoing then that individual seems to not care about his own economy as the geopolitical decisions far out weigh his economy and the quality of life of his on own population.

The Russian economy death spiral still continues and only gets worse.

Oil Price Set To Fall to $76-77 -- Oil Minister of #Kuwait
No reduction in OPEC production to support prices either
http://www.theinsider.ua/business/543b98aaa8039/ …

Appears the Russian CB has also given up on supporting the Rubel.

#Russia|n Central Bank Admits Defeat as Ruble plunges to new low:
$1 = 40.460
€1 = 51.342
http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...-ruble-2014-10 …
@AP pic.twitter.com/LSnOpxDcZ4

OUTLAW 09
10-13-2014, 04:20 PM
If one still stay's inside the Ukraine and orders more troops to enter which is still ongoing then that individual seems to not care about his own economy as the geopolitical decisions far out weigh his economy and the quality of life of his on own population.

The Russian economy death spiral still continues and only gets worse.

Oil Price Set To Fall to $76-77 -- Oil Minister of #Kuwait
No reduction in OPEC production to support prices either
http://www.theinsider.ua/business/543b98aaa8039/ …

Appears the Russian CB has also given up on supporting the Rubel.

#Russia|n Central Bank Admits Defeat as Ruble plunges to new low:
$1 = 40.460
€1 = 51.342
http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...-ruble-2014-10 …
@AP pic.twitter.com/LSnOpxDcZ4

Putin now does have a serious question to ask himself---continue on for a military victory or pull fully put and try to get the sanctions lifted before the Rubel fully collapses and along with it the entire Russian economy.

Talk is that the Russian CB has used 6B in the current attempt to support the Rubel.

Again an article concerning the oil pricing by the KSA directed apparently at Russia.

More reports on the KSA oil price effects on Russia--the "real sanctions" against Putin.

RUB - 51.3120 versus EURO, 40.4350 against USD.
Real sanctions against Putin imposed by Saudi Arabia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...sens-rout.html …

OUTLAW 09
10-13-2014, 04:32 PM
The Ukrainian SF guerrilla fight is getting results.

The killed are the Russian general Sergei Andreychenko,Chechen commander for the special forces in Mariupol Andrey Borisov +2 elite troops.

#BREAKINGNEWS Ukrainian special forces from battalion Dnepr-1 kill 4 key Russian soldiers in #Telmanovo.

mirhond
10-13-2014, 05:25 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouufCxyObos

National Guard conscripts in Kiev rebelled and demanded demobilization.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a6mqzGwloE

Graham Phillips talking to volunteers in Donetzk airport.

OUTLAW 09
10-13-2014, 05:58 PM
By Boris Nemtsov, Russian politician
10.11.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

Project “Novorossiya” is [finally] closed. Putin ordered to return 17.6 thousand troops to their places of permanent deployment. They can now take a break and draw some conclusions. They [the conclusions], are terrible. Neither one of the goals set by Putin has been realized:
1.[He] wanted to bind Ukraine to Russia, in order to achieve Ukraine’s entry into the [Eurasian] Customs Union. [He] got exactly the opposite, Ukraine has chosen the European vector and will never come back into the orbit of Putin’s influence.
2.[He] wanted to achieve the neutrality of Ukraine and to preserve its non-aligned status. A total failure. It is now clear that Ukraine is firmly and permanently associated with NATO. Joint military NATO–Ukraine exercises take place, [Ukraine] works on establishing military–technical cooperation with the Alliance.
3.[He] wanted the respect of the Ukrainian people. [He] got an enemy for many years and Putin–Khuylo.
4.[He] wanted “Novorossiya” from Donetsk to Odesa. [He] got a smaller part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
5.[He] wanted a corridor to Crimea through Mariupol. He got resistance [in response] and trenches that the Russian people in Mariupol [have] dug to not let the occupier in.
6.[He] wanted [Donetsk and Luhansk to be like] Crimea, without firing a single shot; instead, he got 4,000 killed on both sides.
7.[He] wanted the Russian economy not to suffer. [He] got a flight of capital of over 100 billion dollars, 40 rubles per dollar (devaluation of more than 20%) and double-digit food inflation. As well as a complete stagnation in the economy without investments and innovation.
8.[He] wanted support from the imperialists and nationalists (like Girkin and Sputnik and Pogrom)–[he] got extreme irritation from them and the title of traitor.
9.[He] wanted to remain recognized in world politics. [He] became an outcast. He got expelled from the G8, no one invites him anywhere, all the bratva are under sanctions, no one but Luka [President of Belarus Lukashenko] and Nazarbayev [President of Kazakhstan] want to associate with him. And even they support the integrity of Ukraine and demand money. Aleksandr Grigoryevich [Lukashenko] particularly excelled at it–[he] received 3.5 billion dollars a year from the Russian budget and meanwhile said that Mongolia and Kazakhstan should divide Russia between themselves.
10.The only thing he wanted and got, was [his] high rating [in Russia], based on an imperial hysteria and the cynical lies of agitprop [propaganda]. But not for long. Soon, people will realize that the prices have risen, but their income has not. [He] won’t be able to keep blaming everything on Obama for long.

That’s how he beat everyone… First and foremost, Russia.

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 05:32 AM
The Ukrainian SF guerrilla fight is getting results.

The killed are the Russian general Sergei Andreychenko,Chechen commander for the special forces in Mariupol Andrey Borisov +2 elite troops.

#BREAKINGNEWS Ukrainian special forces from battalion Dnepr-1 kill 4 key Russian soldiers in #Telmanovo.

Appears that these Russian troops were a key Russian intel team and then this followed up the reporting on their being killed.

Total Russian media silence on the blogging reports which in the past is a positive indicator that the event occurred.

AGAIN notice the use of OSCE vehicles in full violation of the OSCE mandate of neutrality for the Ukraine.

#Report Russian forces are searching for their missing key intelligence troops btw.#Telmanovo and #Novoazovsk , also using #OSCE vehicles

mirhond
10-14-2014, 08:08 AM
Breaking news from Ukromedia!!111

Russians use magnetic resonance weapons on Ukrainian soldiers!!111 :eek:

http://tsn.ua/ukrayina/na-donbasi-vikoristovuyut-zbroyu-yaka-rozrivaye-vse-v-golovah-ukrayinskih-viyskovih-373492.html


За її словами, зброя, яка застосовується, колись була лише в футурологічній літературі. Йдеться, зокрема, про магнітно-резонансну зброю, яку застосували 11 вересня під Дебальцевим у Донецькій області.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/ukrayina/na-donbasi-vikoristovuyut-zbroyu-yaka-rozrivaye-vse-v-golovah-ukrayinskih-viyskovih-373492.html

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 09:27 AM
Breaking news from Ukromedia!!111

Russians use magnetic resonance weapons on Ukrainian soldiers!!111 :eek:

http://tsn.ua/ukrayina/na-donbasi-vikoristovuyut-zbroyu-yaka-rozrivaye-vse-v-golovah-ukrayinskih-viyskovih-373492.html

hey comrade mirhond --what about that Russian General that was killed along with four other high intel officers two days ago ---AND there are what "no Russians" in the Ukraine?

NOTICED absolutely no response from either the Russian mercenaries and or the Russian government about the killed General---was he also on "vacation" or did he die of a "heart attack"?

If on "vacation" then his family gets no "compensation" from the government--right mirhond?

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 09:36 AM
heads up mirhond---still no response either by the Russian government and or the Russian mercenaries about the following;

#Russia is not ashamed to state on death certificate the reason as "stroke, trauma, cardiac arrest, suicide, died 150 km fr Rostov".

Per "Cargo-200" moderator 4500 of #Russian army conscripts have been killed in #Ukraine,300 of them buried in #Russia http://argumentua.com/novosti/pogibshikh-voennykh-rf-rodnym-vydayut-za-samoubiits-vasileva …

Previously Anrey Borisov (Chechen) in #Mariupol staged his death by killing 2 civilians.

In the night to Oct 9 "#Dnepr1" DRG unit liquidated in #Telmanove Anrey Borisov (Chechen), incl a #Russian general.

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 09:44 AM
Russia states it is pulling it's troops back from the Ukrainian border to their homes bases and the West cheers---the war is over but is it really?

It is still ongoing as hard as ever especially on the SBU/Ukrainian SF guerrilla war with the Russian SF/GRU teams.

VIDEO #Ukraine SBU captured #Russia terrorists fr unit "Berkut-SMERSH" Dnipropetrovsk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6MzPE6hVPM&list=UUhO-BEEmSI_nMglyOv81K9Q … ?

pic.twitter.com/2OyftgQW3e

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 10:04 AM
It seems that the Russian mercenary who is the DPR PM still has not read Minsk 1 and 2---and yes while Russia "claims" to pull back all it's troops there are still 2K inside the Ukraine.

BREAKING: #Donetsk PM says DPR not ready to pull back heavy weaponry from line of contact because regime of silence was not observed.
He went on to state that he is not going to honor the agreements as long as the Ukrainian Army is in the Donbas.

It seems that the Russian mercenaries and Russia wants the Ukraine to fully abide by the Minsk 1 and 2 BUT then they only selectively implement one or two things as state "see we are fulfilling the agreements".

BUT then Moscow states the following:

From Interfax today:

13:30 At ASEM summit Putin will inform EU leaders of Russia's efforts to resolve Ukraine crisis - Lavrov (Part 2)

STILL not sure exactly what Russia has done to resolve the crisis ---the ceasefire has been violated over 1500 times since 5 Sept, no Russian troops have been pulled out of the Ukraine--actually more are coming back into the Ukraine at this moment, there have been no mercenaries leaving the Ukraine and weapons/fighters/ammunition is still flowing into the Ukraine from Russia.

SO what has Russia really done?

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 11:12 AM
This is coming from the man who stated publicly Russia was not in violation of the Budapest Memorandum, who stated he was not sending Russian troops into the Ukraine and openly stated that territory inside the Ukraine was "New Russia" and who annexed the Crimea.

This is the same person who declared the Putin Doctrine meaning he can "defend" Russian speakers around the world, and changed the territorial borders of a European country for the first time since 1945.

AND yet he talks about international law as if he is an expert and follows to the letter all agreements Russia has ever signed.

This is another perfect example of Putin's "altered state of reality".

Today from RIA:

MOSCOW, October 14 (RIA Novosti) – The events in Ukraine showed that the international law is in deep crisis as many international human rights organizations turn a blind eye to crimes against civilians in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday.

“They [the events in Ukraine] have demonstrated a large-scale crisis of the international law, basic norms of the Universal declaration in human rights and the convention to prevent genocide,” Putin said at a meeting of the Kremlin human rights council.

“We witnessed double standards in attitudes toward crimes against civilians in southeastern Ukraine, the violation of fundamental human rights – the right to live and the right for personal security. People there are subject to torture, cruel and humiliating treatment, discrimination and extrajudicial measures,” the president said.

“Unfortunately, many international organizations simply turn a blind eye to these facts,” he continued.

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 11:28 AM
Russian Plan B taken straight out of their new military UW doctrine--New Generation Warfare.

After and during today's demo in front of the Ukrainian Rada building.

Provocation near #Ukraine's Rada is work of #Korchinsky. Under-cover #Russia|n GRU/FSB agent.#rada #ukraine
pic.twitter.com/QnoeEMPoB2 v @pyci4b

Kremlin destablisation of Ukraine Plan A: Create pro-Russian Maidan-style revolution. Plan B: Create wave of terrorist attacks

The SBU has in the last few weeks detected and arrested an increasing number of terrorist teams trying to get into the western cities and Kyiv.

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 02:27 PM
heads up mirhond---still no response either by the Russian government and or the Russian mercenaries about the following;

#Russia is not ashamed to state on death certificate the reason as "stroke, trauma, cardiac arrest, suicide, died 150 km fr Rostov".

Per "Cargo-200" moderator 4500 of #Russian army conscripts have been killed in #Ukraine,300 of them buried in #Russia http://argumentua.com/novosti/pogibshikh-voennykh-rf-rodnym-vydayut-za-samoubiits-vasileva …

Previously Anrey Borisov (Chechen) in #Mariupol staged his death by killing 2 civilians.

In the night to Oct 9 "#Dnepr1" DRG unit liquidated in #Telmanove Anrey Borisov (Chechen), incl a #Russian general.

Reference this killed Russian intelligence team----

Breaking: A special #Russia|n military intelligence unit landed in #Novoazovsk
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/10/14/7040741/ …
pic.twitter.com/5yskxFF4VL

Russian troops have had up to 6 military drones over, and or near Mariupol the last few days.

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 02:46 PM
Today Germany's Merkel was openly quoted as being not so convinced of the Russian pull back by Putin ---maybe it is the still 2K Russian troops in the eastern Ukraine that are being reinforced just as Putin says he is leaving that is bothering her.

OR maybe it is the ceasefire that is no ceasefire---OR maybe she was lied to too many times in the past six months by Putin himself.

#BREAKINGNEWS HOURS AFTER REPORTS OF RUSSIAN REINFORCEMENTS NEAR #MARIUPOL, A RUSSIAN GRAD ATTACK KILLS AND WOUNDS 15 CIVILIANS IN #SARTANA.

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 03:06 PM
kaur---something for you to check on--it was released yesterday on the net claiming to be a arty strike on the Donetsk airport BUT.....

Open invite to anyone who enjoys a good hunt using open source materials;

Has anyone ever seen this type of artillery strikes or MRLS being used before and does anyone have any idea what it is?

The round/rockets seem to drift in groups of 4-5 arching in slowly then flare at about 200 or so meters in the air before they hit the ground.

The rounds appear to go in slow motion---nothing I have seen before matches this behavior by the rounds.

Video with strange artillery does not seem to be in Donetsk. Impossible to geolocate so far.

https://twitter.com/ConflictZone101/status/521707767170875392 … pic.twitter.com/fJOrEJdvae

OUTLAW 09
10-14-2014, 03:11 PM
Looks like the Russian mercenaries are now fighting among themselves.

Pride of Don Cossacks' is now deeply offended. They want to establish a third republic apart fr DPR. Smth like Horlivka-Yenakiyeve-Makiiyvka

BREAKING Recently to #Horlivka #Russian Don Cossacks arrived. Skirmish began btwn them, local criminals & #Donetsk Russian terrorists

This is the fourth reporting just in the last week of infighting among the Russian mercenary groups and there was one report of them even fighting with their "Russian military partners" because they did not do what the Russian troops wanted them to do.

When the Genie (fascsm) is out of the bottle it is really hard to get him back in.

OUTLAW 09
10-15-2014, 09:50 AM
Russia has not been able to slow the fall of the Rubel and they as well cannot seem to get control over then own supported/supplied mercenary fighters.

More evidence of Russian army in Ukraine from Ukraine Today correspondent Andriy Tsaplienko http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-army-in-ukraine-defenders-of-donetsk-airport-have-numerous-evidences-of-russian-involment-373939.html …
pic.twitter.com/AvU4kDsC6O

Lugansk: Cossack terrorist groups have decided to proclaim a republic in Donbass "Cossacks People's Republic."
http://www.ukrinform.ua/ukr/news/lnr_rozpadae_tsya_na_karlikovi_dergavi_1981335 …

#Russian terrorist “DNR” is to open polling stations in Russia for its illegitimate elections http://goo.gl/T9G2x6

#Russian terrorist "DNR" promised to shoot down #German drones & kill OSCE military observers http://goo.gl/1ZiN5c

Soldiers from South-#Ossetia showcase w pride all the cars they hijacked on streets of #Donetsk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6V-Vqfz30fA …

OUTLAW 09
10-15-2014, 09:54 AM
Seems that not all the Russian Army units are being pulled back.

BREAKING Per locals in #Novoazovsk vicinity, close to #Mariupol, #Russian army 138th mechanized brigade is present and active.

UPDATE Insider: On top of the 45th & 137th equipment battery of Akatsiya & Gvozdika fr some #Russian army joint brigade.

UPDATE Insider: From the 137th VDV regiment in #Donetsk there might be 330of them, likely brought NONA-S, and / or D-30, BMD-2.

UPDATE Insider: From the 45th VDV regiment in #Donetsk there might be 200 of them - a whole reconnaissance battalion

OUTLAW 09
10-15-2014, 10:25 AM
Somehow I am not sure just where the Russian mindset is the last week or so with their press releases---it is almost like they are seriously attempting to reach a super heightened "altered state of reality" and this is a perfect example of that.

Still trying to figure out just how the Russians expect the Ukrainians to accept them as the "guarantor of anything" since the Russians refused to honor the Budapest Memorandum and refused to accept the new President and have refused to accept the coming elections as being "legal" since the old President was thrown pot by an alleged" coup. AND have failed to implement the Minsk 1and 2---the Russians talk a lot about their efforts BUT there is nothing to show for it on the battlefield. They cannot even get the DPR to stop shelling the Donetsk airport SO how will being a "guarantor" solve that problem?

BY the way--being a "guarantor" gives the Russian continuous right to interfere on a daily basis in the Donbas and the Ukrainians cannot say a word--that is where Russia is headed with this proposal---gives Russia de factor control over "New Russia".

MOSCOW, October 15 (RIA Novosti) - Russia may act as a guarantor of a truce between Kiev and the southeast of Ukraine, Russian presidential administration chief Sergei Ivanov said Wednesday.

"If the final agreements are reached, Russia may in some form act as a guarantor. Such a practice exists in international relations," Ivanov said in an interview with the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper.

The head of the presidential administration did not exclude the possibility that the hostilities in Ukraine may resume, but said he hoped for the "common sense of the Kiev leadership."

According to Ivanov, as of today, Russia supports the conflict's prompt resolution based on Russian President Vladimir Putin's peace plan, which "made it possible to stop an open confrontation."

The military operation to suppress independence supporters in eastern Ukraine was initiated by Kiev in mid-April. With the mediation of Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Ukrainian authorities and representatives of the country's east agreed to a ceasefire on September 5.

The ceasefire agreements are partially based on Putin's peace plan announced in early September. The seven-point plan to stabilize the situation in eastern Ukraine includes ceasing military advances, the withdrawal of armed forces, a prisoner exchange, provision of humanitarian aid and international monitoring.

NOTE: almost none of these points have been fulfilled;

1. the DPR is still refusing to exchange over 1000 military and civilian prisoners
2. there has been no withdrawal of armed forces ie mercenaries AT ALL nor Russian troops as well
3. there has been not stopping the mercenaries and Russian troops as they slowly have expanded the territory under their control since 5 Sept.

SO why would the Ukraine "accept" Russia as a "guarantor" of anything when the below is happening every single day since 5 Sept.

#BreakingFootage Ukr. SBU detain armed "Novorossiyan" intelligence agents while trying to enter #Dnipropetrovsk obl.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM7LtIqThZo …

13 minutes #footage of Russian invaders breaking the ceasefire around #Debaltseve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cq8YCvjb8e8 …

5 days old footage.
Russian invasion forces hide KamAZ and T-72 behind civilian building near #Donetsk #airport.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tWg1iN2fvw

During the @OSCE_SMM examination of the Russian #Grad massacre in #Sartana, Rus fire new Grads...

#BREAKINGNEWS RUSSIAN INVASION FORCES STARTED THE HEAVIEST ATTACK ON #DONETSK #AIRPORT SINCE MORE THAN A WEEK!

BREAKING On Oct 14 in South-#Ossetia officially were greeted & met fighters who returned from war with #Ukraine

OUTLAW 09
10-15-2014, 11:26 AM
European bloggers are tending to beat the western media on reporting key events in the eastern Ukraine by up to three days before the western media even thinks about reporting it.

This story was carried by two key bloggers a full two days ago and virtually ignored by the west.

There has been a very intense but largely unreported by the western media about a counter UW war against Russian FSB/GRU/SF teams carried out by Ukrainian SF/SBU units since the Russians invaded.

This Russian General was in a recon team of four that got ambushed---the remaining two have not been identified but some are saying they were the personal protection team for the General.

Russian spy chief killed in rebel-held Donetsk, Ukraine says, in embarrassment for Kremlin

General Sergey Andreychenko would be highest-ranking death for Moscow
Fighting comes amid new signs the so-called ceasefire is under deep strain

By Will Stewart for MailOnline

Published: 16:20 GMT, 14 October 2014 | Updated: 19:00 GMT, 14 October 2014

Conflict: Russian secret services general Sergey Andreychenko has reportedly been killed in Ukraine

Ukraine today claimed that a Russian secret services general was killed in fighting in rebel-held Donetsk region amid new signs the so-called ceasefire is under deep strain.

If confirmed, he would be the highest ranking Kremlin loss in the bloody conflict and a huge embarrassment for Moscow, which claims its servicemen are not engaged in Ukraine

'Russian general Sergey Andreychenko is among those killed,' said the National Defence Headquarters in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region.

Several sources claimed he was a commander in the FSB, Russia's domestic secret service.

There was no comment from Moscow on the report which claimed Ukrainian Interior Ministry troops 'eliminated' a subversive group in Telmanovo, Donetsk region.

A Chechen fighter was also killed, it was claimed.

Dnipro-1 battalion commander Yuriy Bereza said: 'The killing of Russian mercenaries and a general is just one of the many operations with a similar outcome.

'There is nothing to be surprised with. The same will happen sooner or later to anyone who dares to come to our land.'

Seven civilians died and 17 were injured when shells exploded today near a funeral procession in Mariupol.

Vladimir Putin, who meets Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko on Friday, denounced the West for double standards over human rights.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2792750/russian-general-killed-rebel-held-donetsk-ukraine-says-embarrassment-kremlin.html#ixzz3GDB9JDK3

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 08:48 AM
firn---a number of typical examples of events in the last 24 hours that indicate that the "frozen state" does not exist in the Donbas.

None of this occurred after the Russians took over control of the Moldavian and Georgian enclaves.

Something about #Russia'n #fascism: Ukrainian books burned in Simferopol.
pic.twitter.com/boBZLOTZoL

#BreakingFootage Russian invaders use their newest toy vs. Ukrainian cities.
The 2A65 Msta-B.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgAoJEdN2xw

(Added by Moderator:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/152_mm_howitzer_2A65 )


"The supply and price of Russian #gas has been part of [the Ukrainian] crisis from the start": BBC's @paulkirbyuk http://bbc.in/101jkBE

#BreakingNews Russian offensive in northern #Luhansk oblast continue, both outside the defined "ATO" zone

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 08:55 AM
Russia announces pullback of troops with a big fan fare of press releases.

Two days later Merkel announces she does not tend to believe it and then from NATO---all the announcement was just to influence the Milan meetings and nothing more than a smokescreen.

NOW---Russia is lifting the food ban on butter and cheese from the EU---so an admission of a ban failure on their part? Kind of reminds me of the soviet purchase of 2000 tons of butter from the EU in 1972 and then proclaims a great Soviet collective farms milk production year the same year as the butter purchases.

BREAKING #Russia has lifted ban on cheese & butter from #European Union. Very covertly, w/o much fuss & PR statements

Russian troops withdrawing from Rostov? NATO Commander Europe Gen @PMBreedlove has seen no "major movement" so far.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/10/15/nato-chief-alliance-seen-no-major-movement-russian-troop-withdrawal-from/ …

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 09:21 AM
as usual Russia issues press releases and more threat towards the US and the fighting still goes on all the while blaming it on the Ukrainians---the usual standard "it ain't me" approach to international affairs by Russia.

#Putin threatens West not to put pressure on #Russia over #Ukraine, or else, mentions nuclear arsenal again.

Putin warns U.S. spat between nuclear powers over Ukraine crisis threatens global stability:

http://reut.rs/1u6fz5e
pic.twitter.com/HeIwM5870g

In #Komsomolske, Donetsk region, #Ukraine DRG liquidated in abandoned foundry storage up to 10 #Russian terrorist howitzers & GRAD vehicles.

BREAKING Via #Rovenky to #Donetsk #Russian army vehicles are constantly driving. One of the vehicle black number plate was Р1 010 РФ АМУР.

#BREAKINGNEWS Russian invasion forces intensify their offensive towards Lysichiansk, attacking 5 Ukr-held villages.

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 10:38 AM
There has been multiple reports of infighting between the various Russian mercenary groups and even between them and the Russia troops.


NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua

"LPR" organization continue clashes with 'kossacks" for the territory and conflicts with "DPR" over resources, provided by Russia

Appears now the Russian military is sending in GRU units to take are of the problems.

BREAKING Last night in #Gluhovskiy forest, #Torez region, two #Russian helis landed #GRU units there.Some say for cleansing of insubordinate

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 03:33 PM
A secondary effect of the Russian attack on the Ukraine--the Russian Army is in full swing of testing all their latest weapon systems and the West seems to be totally ignorant of it.

BREAKING #Russian army brought to #Donetsk MRLS ТОС-1А «Солнцепек». (TOS-1 "Suncooker")

pic.twitter.com/0jgvmacZTa

AND Russia is really "pulling" back it's troops?

AND the fighting just keeps on going--even when Russia and their mercenaries claim there is a ceasefire and they are observing it.

Ukrainian forces find ready to use SA-16 #Igla in northern #Luhansk oblast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFbBkuqT0PY …

This 18 years old kid #Russian terrorist came to kill #Ukrainians & on Oct 10 ceased to exist.
http://rustelegraph.ru/news/2014-10-16/U-rebenka-ne-bylo-nikakogo-opyta-i-on-popal-na-Donbass-20466/ …
pic.twitter.com/24MPVbZwo1

Listen in to fighting in #Debaltseve today. Nonstop under Russian attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtJ1LG1mRbw …
#UkraineUnderAttack

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 04:00 PM
This maybe why the Russian Army lost a GRU recon team along with a General of theirs---THIS has never been reported in western media and it goes to the concept that the Russians were in fact "suckered in". It seems the Russian SF/GRU units are having a difficult time of it in the occupied areas of the Donbas.

It appears the Ukrainians seem to be able to identify and locate those teams before they make it into Ukrainian controlled territory--someone is passing excellent info on them.

Right now there is an estimate 4500 killed Russian troops---wounded go as well into the thousands and the MIA--absolutely no idea.

BUT the number of captured---this is interesting.

Security Service of #Ukraine released 16 out of 131 Russian soldiers to relatives (in fact, exchanged them for #Ukrainians) - aide Lubkivsky

In fact the Ukrainian military has setup a hotline for Russian families to call to see if the Ukrainian military has any information on their relatives.

Relatives of Russian servicemen call Ukrainian hotline for help

http://uatoday.tv/politics/relatives-of-russian-servicemen-call-ukrainian-hotline-for-help-374202.html …

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 04:32 PM
An increasing number of Crimea Tartars are "disappearing" and then turning up dead and having signs of torture.

This is the Russian leader of the Crimea as to why they are "disappearing".

Wow... > @MoscowTimes Aksyonov says disappeared Crimean Tatars could be fighting in Syria

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/509571.html

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 04:37 PM
Russian paranoia--notice in the last paragraph they are still holding on to the "they are not in the Donbas nor providing weapons and fighters".

From Interfax today:

19:05 RUSSIA, U.S. NEED UNPREJUDICED DIALOGUE TO PRESERVE STRATEGIC STABILITY - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER SHOIGU

19:03 U.S. MILITARY INTERFERENCE IN ASIAN COUNTRIES, UKRAINE LEADING TO BLOODY CHAOS - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER SHOIGU


From RIA today:

Updated 8:20 p.m. Moscow Time

MOSCOW, October 16 (RIA Novosti) - Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu expressed concern on Thursday about a recent statement by US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel outlining the need to prepare US troops for the fight against the Russian army "on the NATO's doorstep."

Hagel said in his keynote address to the Association of the US Army that the US troops must be prepared to deal with Russia "with its modern and capable army on NATO's doorstep".

"This statement leads us to believe that Pentagon is working on scenarios of military action near the borders of our country," Shoigu told reporters in Moscow.

"Instead of fueling tensions, we need to encourage a candid dialogue on all issues on the agenda of our relations with Western partners," Shoigu noted, adding that "this is the only way to find mutually acceptable solutions aimed at keeping the existing balance of forces and strengthening strategic stability".

According to the defense minister, it is Washington that has been "stubbornly" moving "NATO's doorstep" closer to Russian borders for the past 20 years.

Following Crimea's reunification with Russia in March, NATO stepped up its military presence near Russia's borders, specifically in Poland and the former Soviet Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Russia has repeatedly expressed concern over NATO's increased military presence in its neighboring states.

Relations between Russia and NATO deteriorated further as the crisis in Ukraine escalated. The alliance has repeatedly accused Russia of meddling in Ukraine's internal affairs, sending troops to Ukraine, and went as far as to claim that Moscow planned to invade Ukraine. However, none of these statements were supported with any evidence.

BUT the Ukraine is holding over 131 Russian military as prisoners of war.

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 05:07 PM
Russian paranoia--notice in the last paragraph they are still holding on to the "they are not in the Donbas nor providing weapons and fighters".

From Interfax today:

19:05 RUSSIA, U.S. NEED UNPREJUDICED DIALOGUE TO PRESERVE STRATEGIC STABILITY - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER SHOIGU

19:03 U.S. MILITARY INTERFERENCE IN ASIAN COUNTRIES, UKRAINE LEADING TO BLOODY CHAOS - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER SHOIGU


From RIA today:

Updated 8:20 p.m. Moscow Time

MOSCOW, October 16 (RIA Novosti) - Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu expressed concern on Thursday about a recent statement by US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel outlining the need to prepare US troops for the fight against the Russian army "on the NATO's doorstep."

Hagel said in his keynote address to the Association of the US Army that the US troops must be prepared to deal with Russia "with its modern and capable army on NATO's doorstep".

"This statement leads us to believe that Pentagon is working on scenarios of military action near the borders of our country," Shoigu told reporters in Moscow.

"Instead of fueling tensions, we need to encourage a candid dialogue on all issues on the agenda of our relations with Western partners," Shoigu noted, adding that "this is the only way to find mutually acceptable solutions aimed at keeping the existing balance of forces and strengthening strategic stability".

According to the defense minister, it is Washington that has been "stubbornly" moving "NATO's doorstep" closer to Russian borders for the past 20 years.

Following Crimea's reunification with Russia in March, NATO stepped up its military presence near Russia's borders, specifically in Poland and the former Soviet Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Russia has repeatedly expressed concern over NATO's increased military presence in its neighboring states.

Relations between Russia and NATO deteriorated further as the crisis in Ukraine escalated. The alliance has repeatedly accused Russia of meddling in Ukraine's internal affairs, sending troops to Ukraine, and went as far as to claim that Moscow planned to invade Ukraine. However, none of these statements were supported with any evidence.

BUT the Ukraine is holding over 131 Russian military as prisoners of war.

Putin's attempt to make nice and get the sanctions lifted at the EU/Asia Milan meeting has in fact "gone south".

Angela #Merkel and Vladimir #Putin had been due to meet in Milan tonight. It's been cancelled. No reason yet, tho Merkel recently v critical

NATO: No Russian pullout
http://uatoday.tv/geopolitics/nato-no-russian-pullout-374143.html …

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 05:12 PM
Now Putin has a major problem that was not foreseen when he launched his UW strategy against the Ukraine.

The Ukraine becoming a second "Poland" and that on his own border.

#Poland General will reform #Ukraine’s army on behalf of #NATO
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/16/polish-general-will-reform-ukraines-army-on-behalf-of-nato/ …
pic.twitter.com/bz8Ap0cnRz

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 05:31 PM
First the Russian mercenaries claim they are pro Russian and want independence and have been beating up on the Ukrainian Army together with the Russian Army--

NOW this---if true what a strange turn of events.

BREAKING #Luhansk & #Donetsk terrorists ask #Ukraine army to join with them against Don Cossacks. Human logic goes its own peculiar ways

Both sides, #Luhansk terrorists &Don Cossack, have more than plenty weapons &equipment. If things get messy then would mean end to the towns

In #Stahanov, #Antratsyt, & #Rovenky #Luhansk terrorists intend purge fr Don Cossacks. Don Cossacks intend to purge them fr LPR terrorists

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 06:10 PM
Finally an European leader stands up and speak the truth about the lack of Russian activity in getting Minsk 1 and 2 implemented as they stated to the world media they are always doing.

Merkel and Poroshenko discussed the state of the Minsk accord and "voiced dismay that much has not been carried out," the chancellery says

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 05:05 AM
It now appears that the new Russian military UW strategy is largely and or has largely failed due to a number of Ukrainian counter measures. This would be the general view as it is the author's below--BUT if one really reads the new Russia UW strategy they are simply downshifting the phases from their last phase six but the UW war still is ongoing just differently--that is the actual beauty of their new strategy---the ability to shifts gears as your opponent changes his tactics.

There has been a not so subtle shift to setting the basis for a coup as the way to remove the current Ukrainian government since it has passed a number of laws that will remove the Communist Party as a source of Putin's power as well as removing a large number of corrupt and pro Russian officials from their government posts.

This is a solid article on the new Russia shift in tactics.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/failing-with-novorossiya-kremlin-switches-tactics-368286.html

First indicator of this shift was this weeks riots and demos in Kyiv.

Organizer of Nat. Guard #Kiev riots id'd as #Russia|n FSB agent Julia Kharlamov
http://podrobnosti.ua/analytics/2014/10/16/998177.html … v @podrobnosti
pic.twitter.com/d0ugC2H939

@RutheniaRus Employee of FSB Russia, Kharlamov identified as provoker of the National Guard.
pic.twitter.com/8tZeVo3Dwu

Supporters of ‘dictator laws’ trying to stay in #Ukraine's parliament
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/supporters-of-dictator-laws-trying-to-stay-in-parliament-368295.html …
pic.twitter.com/FIkd5Y128g

Police officer suspected of being agent provocateur during Rada clashes arrested
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv/police-officer-accused-of-being-agent-provocateur-during-rada-clashes-368142.html … via @KyivPost
pic.twitter.com/cCXnZNuxpQ

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 11:32 AM
Interesting that Russia keeps mentioning the same Minsk 1 points over and over yet fail at the same to mention Minsk 2 which requires the Russian mercenaries to leave eastern Ukraine, and Russia to finally secure the border along with OSCE as well as pulling out their own troops which they have refused even exist in the Ukraine.

Even when the Ukraine fulfills Minsk 1 with a special law for some of the eastern regions Russia cannot even get their own mercenaries onboard.

From Interfax today:
14:39 Ukrainian law on special status of Donbas is bluff - DPR

The DPR is now complaining that the entire Donbas should fall under their control--including large areas currently not under their control---what one cannot get by fighting now they think it will be simply handed to them because Russia "saved them"---actually an official statement from Belarus today--the mercenaries were failing until Russia stepped in.

Following the Russia motto---we want "federalization"---got it, now we want independence and on and on...

Even the corner stone of Minsk 1 was a total civilian and military POW full exchange with no restrictions to be completed in 48 hours from the start---there is still no full exchange and the DPR continues to refuse to release civilians--notice again Russia has no comment on the POW exchange.

Updated 1:59 p.m. Moscow Time

MILAN, October 17 (RIA Novosti) - Friday’s breakfast meeting of Russian, Ukrainian and EU leaders in Milan was constructive, although some of its participants were reluctant to learn about the real state of affairs in eastern Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday.

“The participants discussed the implementation of the Minsk agreements in a detailed and substantive way. Unfortunately, some participants of the breakfast meeting have demonstrated full reluctance to understand the real situation in southeastern Ukraine,” he told reporters.

The spokesman said the participants did not discuss the issue of Western sanctions imposed on Russia.

The 1.5-hour breakfast meeting on the margins of the ASEM summit in northern Italy brought together Russian President Vladimir Putin, his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko, as well as British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy.

On September 5, the trilateral Contact Group in Minsk reached a series of agreements between the Ukrainian government and the self-proclaimed people's republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Among the provisions of the deal are an "all-for-all" prisoner exchange, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, additional humanitarian convoys from Russia to eastern Ukraine, and a ceasefire which came into force on the same day.

Numerous violations have been reported in the regions since the ceasefire was established.

At least 331 deaths have been reported in eastern Ukraine since the ceasefire deal, bringing the overall death toll in the the six-month-old conflict to more than 3,600, the UN said last week.

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 12:08 PM
It is noticeable that the only hardline dictator left in Europe---Belarus---is voicing some uncomfortable comments in the direction of Russia.

iIn the last two days he stated that Russia must remember that portions of Russia were until taken away from Belarus actually parts of Belarus--then he stated that the mercenaries in both the DPR and LPR were for all intents and purposes defeated by the Ukrainian Army until Russia sent in her military and then this today. He is sensing he is getting more room for his comments and Russia cannot push back on him.

Lukashenko has been always a good reader of Putin. Plus in the last CIs meeting he sided with those CIS countries that openly stated each can go their own directions East, West, and or both.

#Lukashenko's speech on #Ukraine and #Russia indicates he feels that #Putin's rule is coming to an end.

http://www.belaruspartisan.org/politic/283314

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 01:20 PM
After the Milan meeting--Putin states they were "good" whatever "good" is but then the Germans stated.

Merkel believes no headway has been made yet in talks on Ukraine
http://24today.net/open/177493
pic.twitter.com/PbHipttdh9

But then the Russian standard answer when it comes to the Ukraine:

Kremlin: Ukraine talks 'full of misunderstandings and disagreements'
http://eurone.ws/2PhVVp

It seems that it is only Russia that seems to "understand" what the problem is --so if any EU country has another opinion then it is "misunderstandings and disagreements".

Seems to be the world according to Russia.

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 01:47 PM
Regardless of Milan--the war that is not a war still continues and it is far from "frozen".

Around 12:00 #Ukraine army in #Debaltseve started to remind to Don Cossacks they have artillery too & have are good at its use. #Donetsk

BREAKING #SBU detained a #Russian army lieutenant colonel w VERY INTERESTING PAPERS. Went straight to #Milan. Along w that minus 14 terrs.

NOTE:---the SBU is and SF units are getting better every day---the blogger world is waiting to find out more about the documents the Russian LT COL was carrying with him since copies went straight to Milan.

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 03:35 PM
Ukrainian President and Putin in closed door discussions right now.

THEN this at the same time:

More sound of shelling in northern #Donetsk city tonight.
Russian target the airport again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch

And if Germany has it's way the sanctions are not coming off anytime soon.

Merkel reprimands Putin before ASEM leaders for raising doubts about #Ukraine sovereignty, recalls 1994 Budapest agmt
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKC

Seems that since Putin cannot ensure the security of the Russian Ukrainian border the EU signed up to secure it for him.

Since he ordered the FSB to provide security to the OSCE on the border---will he do the same for the EU?

#Germany, #Italy, & #France agreed to guard #Ukraine East border.
http://gazeta.ua/articles/polit

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 04:33 PM
Putin states in Milan that eastern Ukraine is an integral part of the Ukraine THEN in his evening press conference he keeps using the term "New Russia".

Putin, speaking about the results of Milan talks on the Ukrainian crisis, keeps referring to eastern Ukraine as "Novorossiya"

He also stated that the conditions from Minsk have not been met---BUT then the following from his Russian mercenaries.

BREAKING: Heavy machine gun fire at #Donetsk airport now. Rumors say large amount of #Russia|n troops gathered around it, ready to attack.

Fire, explosions, shelling everywhere in Donetsk -reports

http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/17-october-fire-explosions-shelling-everywhere-in-donetsk …

BREAKING #DonetskAirport defenders report #Russian terrorists in forces up to a full company have gathered around the airport, ready to roll

So if he cannot control his own mercenaries just how is it that he thinks the Germans are going to approve the sanctions being lifted?

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 04:45 PM
Putin makes a big show of his being open to negotiate and then the Russian troops and his mercenaries are starting a push on Mariupol and then on to Odessa for his land corridor to the Crimea just AFTER Putin finishes his Milan press conference.

BREAKING #Russian terrorists close to #Mariupol started heavy shelling of "#Azov" positions, advance on. Not known where exactly.

BREAKING In #Luhansk region, close to #Shchastya #Russian terrorists have begun their advance. A LOT OF tanks on mountain Vesyolaya Gora

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 04:53 PM
The Sberbank CEO this week indicated that it would not be fatal if the oil prices remained between 80-90 and now Putin is arguing that if the price stayed at 80 then the entire world economy will collapse.

WHAT I think he is trying to say is that the Russian economy will collapse.

Never realized Putin is such a world class economist---and yet he sees no connection between his actions in the Ukraine and his own economy.

Putin: World economy would collapse if oil prices stay at $80 per barrel - LIVE NOW
http://on.rt.com/jqun7c
pic.twitter.com/4iIA5Ss8rg

Actually what he does not realize is that the global consumer might in fact drive global consumption more if the gas prices remained low for a while.

BUT he needs between 101 to 104 just to balance his own budget.

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 04:57 PM
Appears possible Russian sub is cornered in Swedish waters.


The Swedish navy has started an operation to surface a "foreign submarine" in the #Stockholm area.

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 05:01 PM
The infighting with the Cossacks in eastern Ukraine is now heating up to for Putin an extremely dangerous level as it pits them against his own Russian mercenaries.

Hundreds of #Cossacks arrived in the last days, claiming #Novoazovsk is part of "#Novorossiya" and not of the "Donetsk People's Republic".

#BreakingReport Russian-indoctrinated #Cossacks occupy parts of #Novoazovsk,push #DNR to the northern #Telmanove area
Fighting possible soon

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 05:34 PM
Putin makes a big show of his being open to negotiate and then the Russian troops and his mercenaries are starting a push on Mariupol and then on to Odessa for his land corridor to the Crimea just AFTER Putin finishes his Milan press conference.

BREAKING #Russian terrorists close to #Mariupol started heavy shelling of "#Azov" positions, advance on. Not known where exactly.

BREAKING In #Luhansk region, close to #Shchastya #Russian terrorists have begun their advance. A LOT OF tanks on mountain Vesyolaya Gora


So is now in fact the "so called" ceasefire now finally over?

BREAKING UPDATE Per what is happening the feeling tells for some the ceasefire is coming to its end.

Since #Putin #Poroshenko meeting, it seems like there is a new offensive on multiple fronts ongoing.

BREAKING Just now #Russian terrorists driving SS-21 (Tochka-U) fr #Makiyivka to #Donetsk & intend to shoot fr #DonetskAirport.
BREAKING UPDATE News on SS-21 (Tochka-U) is sketchy. Still it was large rockets (plural!) on trailer heading for #Donetsk. Right now.

I can cofirm ongoing attacks on #Donetsk #airport. Small arms, artillery/mortars and heavy machine guns involved

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 05:51 PM
Ceasefire is now formally over --so those that thought negotiations with Russia is the way forward--must now bury that idea as long as Putin is in power.

#REPORTS from all over the occupied territory in #Ukraine:Heavy Russian attacks.
Offensive started at sunsets in the north,center and south

Now we are seeing the Putin move to annex eastern Ukraine which was the plan all along which is what he has been stating for six months.

#Breaking The DNR regime says, it will only withdraw its troops out of the agreed on #Minsk #buffer_zone, IF RUSSIA GUARANTEES ITS SECURITY

This would officially give it the same status as South Ossetia or Abkhazia.
source:
http://censor.net.ua/news/307637/te

This goes to the RIA press release yesterday when Russia stated it could be a "guarantor" of the DPR/LPR.

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 06:46 PM
First the Crimea, then eastern Ukraine, then accusing the Baltics of harboring Nazi's. constant air incursions into Finland and now Sweden.

Is Putin out of control?

#BREAKING; Whole swedish navy combat ready. Russian subamarines in the Stockholm archipelagy. "Testing" new swe gov

BREAKING - SWEDEN DEPLOYS FIGHTER JETS, NAVY AGAINST WHAT IT SAYS IS A THREAT FROM "FOREIGN SUBMARINES" NEAR STOCKHOLM

OUTLAW 09
10-17-2014, 07:11 PM
Ceasefire is now formally over --so those that thought negotiations with Russia is the way forward--must now bury that idea as long as Putin is in power.

#REPORTS from all over the occupied territory in #Ukraine:Heavy Russian attacks.
Offensive started at sunsets in the north,center and south

Now we are seeing the Putin move to annex eastern Ukraine which was the plan all along which is what he has been stating for six months.

#Breaking The DNR regime says, it will only withdraw its troops out of the agreed on #Minsk #buffer_zone, IF RUSSIA GUARANTEES ITS SECURITY

This would officially give it the same status as South Ossetia or Abkhazia.
source:
http://censor.net.ua/news/307637/te

This goes to the RIA press release yesterday when Russia stated it could be a "guarantor" of the DPR/LPR.

From Interfax this evening 22:09 Self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples' Republic leadership promises to stop firing if Russia guarantees security

OUTLAW 09
10-18-2014, 07:45 AM
At the outset of the Russian Crimea annexation a number of commenters here openly stated that Russia did have some valid complaints about NATO "expansion" to the Russia borders.

Putin has argued in the press that NATO "signed agreements" to not expand and yet they did thus Russia reactions.

I have on a number of occasions pointed out that NATO never signed anything with Russia thus the statement is just another myth in a long line of Russia myths used as propaganda to justify their political moves.

This article from the Washington Post nails it again concerning the "alleged" Russian humiliation by the West as the core reasons for Putin's military actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-nato-pays-a-heavy-price-for-giving-russia-too-much-credita-true-achievement-under-threat/2014/10/17/5b3a6f2a-5617-11e4-809b-8cc0a295c773_story.html

OUTLAW 09
10-18-2014, 09:09 AM
Appears possible Russian sub is cornered in Swedish waters.


The Swedish navy has started an operation to surface a "foreign submarine" in the #Stockholm area.

submarine in Swedish waters 50km off stockholm is serious security breach much more serious if Sweden fail to catch it huge security flaw

mirhond
10-18-2014, 12:36 PM
Hilarious! How did I missed this one?

Ukrainian [former] minister of defence confirmed that Russians used tactical nukes in Luhgansk airport.

http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/303508/pri_shturme_luganskogo_aeroporta_armiya_rf_vozmojn o_ispolzovala_takticheskoe_yadernoe_orujie_geletey i


Министр обороны Украины Валерий Гелетей во время интервью журналисту Романе Бочкале подтвердил тот факт, что российские террористы во время захвата луганского аэропорта использовали тактическое ядерное оружие. Источник: http://censor.net.ua/p303508

kaur
10-18-2014, 04:05 PM
After studing Crimea episode I found out those interesting episodes.


MOSCOW, March 4 (RIA Novosti) – Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that his country has not deployed any troops in Crimea recently and has no plans to annex the peninsula.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140304/188087074/Putin-Denies-Sending-Russian-Troops-to-Crimea.html


MOSCOW, March 3 (RIA Novosti) – The speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament suggested Monday that there was no need for his country to use military force in neighboring Ukraine, in an apparent effort to temper anxieties as evidence emerges of substantial Russian troop deployments across Crimea.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140303/188059751/Russian-Parliament-Speaker-Plays-Down-Talk-of-War-in-Ukraine.html


NOVO-OGARYOVO, March 5 (RIA Novosti) – Despite widespread evidence to the contrary, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday that reports of Russian soldiers in Ukraine were “complete nonsense.”
Shogiu said that photographs showing heavily armed soldiers deployed across Ukraine’s southern Crimea peninsula over the last week were provocations.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140305/188119249/Russias-Defense-Minister-Denies-Reports-of-Troops-in-Ukraine.html


'No Russian troops' in Crimea airports says EU's Russian ambassador

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1dvz4y_no-russian-troops-in-crimea-airports-says-eu-s-russian-ambassador_news


Russian UN Ambassador Laughs At Suggestion Of Troops In the Ukraine

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5He_LChDISY

And then voila.


Putin: Crimean 'little green men' were Russian servicemen, helped ensure true referendum

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C-ApPC4XoV4

Yesterday Putin's spokesperson claimed.


He refused to name concrete foreign leaders who had taken an inflexible position over the Ukrainian issue. “Several summiteers showed absolute unwillingness even to try to be objective,” the presidential spokesman said, noting that their positions were “biased and inflexible.”

http://en.tass.ru/world/754936

Doesn't this sound hillarious after spring and summer full of Russian lies?

mirhond
10-18-2014, 05:53 PM
After studing Crimea episode I found out those interesting episodes.
Doesn't this sound hillarious after spring and summer full of Russian lies?

Not even a single bit of new information in this post. Come on, you may do better, bring some funny nonsence from Russian media.

kaur
10-18-2014, 06:50 PM
You asked so nicely :)

In the end of September Donbas rebel media announced that OSCE monitors found graves of victims killed by Ukrainian troops. Observer's name is Einars Graudinsh.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jvnKgZnvXcs

Very quickly OSCE monitoring mission in Ukraine announced that there is no observer with this name. In fact he is Latvian pro-Russian activist.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/01/the-mysterious-expert/

Good pic with him http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/andrewrostov/15265928/129573/129573_original.jpg

Despite this Russian two governmental huge newspapers picked up this story and spoke with OSCE "observer".

Izvestia http://izvestia.ru/news/577523

Rossiiskaja Gazeta http://www.rg.ru/2014/09/30/donbass-site.html

This is not the end. Latvian guy spoke about 400 bodies mass garve in Donbas. Russian FM Lavrov and human rights (sic!) deputy minister spoke about this in UN!!

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hpnvuY0mUaI

Russian propaganda is trying a lot. Here is news clip from Russian nr 1 brainwashing channel. Operator has in a very clever way mixed together 2 events. They show OSCE observers and their own "observers".

http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/268637

Plus 1 story which talks about anonymous OSCE observers and about mass grave and rape victims.

http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/crimes/25-09-2014/128612-ukraine_organ_trafficking-0/

And one more time.


He refused to name concrete foreign leaders who had taken an inflexible position over the Ukrainian issue. “Several summiteers showed absolute unwillingness even to try to be objective,” the presidential spokesman said, noting that their positions were “biased and inflexible.”

По-моему, он всех уже заебал.

http://avmalgin.livejournal.com/4970670.html

mirhond
10-18-2014, 10:29 PM
He refused to name concrete foreign leaders who had taken an inflexible position over the Ukrainian issue.

It's called diplomatic etiquette



По-моему, он всех уже заебал.
http://avmalgin.livejournal.com/4970670.html

Sweeping generalisation, blatant lie. Why do you even give a slightest value to the one-liner piece of bull$hit from well-known LJ freak and make believe dissenter Mal'gin? Not every person in the internets - with whom you share the same disgust for Putin - really has something cogent to say.

Here, enjoy him begging Kremlin apparatchiks for protection.

http://i51.tinypic.com/2h7pef7.jpg

ps. everything else in your post is much more valuable.

kaur
10-19-2014, 09:30 AM
Dear mirhond! Thanks for compliment under PS section. This is another small example how "journalists" are working in mind programming business. Is this good or is this bad, you as Russian should know better. One result is here expresses by one Russian guy in Donbas.


They reported that 75% of volunteers - are Russians, and only 25% of local as Ukrainian men, under various pretexts avoid participation in hostilities.

http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/307483/18letniyi_naemnik_iz_peterburga_evgeniyi_pushkarev _unichtojen_pod_nikishino_roditeli_prosyat_rossiya n?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Have you any news about Spanish flight controller from Ukraine, who commented eagerly about downing passanger plane in Twitter? Have Ukrainians prisoned him ( no complaints from Spanish officials?). Has Russial troll farm closed this account?

PS 1 your comments about Russian bloggers are like putting trademark on their site :) Malgin's comment to Peskov thought expresses widespread feeling. Forum readers can evaluate Malgin's work here.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitemap/authors/andrei-malgin/171884.html

mirhond
10-19-2014, 11:33 AM
Malgin's comment to Peskov thought expresses widespread feeling.

ORLY? This claim is true just because Mal'gin says so? Don't be so "outlawish", present us at least one peice of evidence.


They reported that 75% of volunteers - are Russians, and only 25% of local as Ukrainian men, under various pretexts avoid participation in hostilities.
http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/3074...medium=twitter

Чувак, ты что, подрядился меня смешить? Again, censor.net.ua? Just look at my previous post and explore the link. You think tou can separate verifiable data from bull$hit they post, like this?


Ukrainian [former] minister of defence confirmed that Russians used tactical nukes in Luhgansk airport.

http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/3035...rujie_geleteyi


Have you any news about Spanish flight controller from Ukraine, who commented eagerly about downing passanger plane in Twitter? Have Ukrainians prisoned him ( no complaints from Spanish officials?). Has Russial troll farm closed this account?

Nope, and I don't care. Dutch have already stated the obvious, anything else is speculations.

mirhond
10-19-2014, 12:08 PM
Ukrainian jailbirds eager to fight for Fatherland, state offers them penal batallions.

http://pclub.dn.ua/uslyshte-nas-ato-zaklyuchennye-xotyat-zashhishhat-svoyu-stranu

kaur
10-19-2014, 05:33 PM
Dear mirhond, 1 piece of evidence for you abot достал episode, if you have not noticed this previously.

http://www.reedsmith.com/files/Publication/9221cf81-e4f7-4907-ab2c-f7dc249eac58/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/441e0ec9-dbd8-4c3a-b1fa-0bf7ed4d5872/alert_14-255.pdf

75% are Russians you can find also here.

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/65749.html

One Russian city council deputy, who is fighting in Ukraine and participated Donetsk airport siege, claims that in his unit 90% are from Russia.

http://ura.ru/content/chel/01-10-2014/articles/1036263086.html

mirhond
10-19-2014, 07:09 PM
Dear mirhond, 1 piece of evidence for you abot достал episode, if you have not noticed this previously.

http://www.reedsmith.com/files/Publication/9221cf81-e4f7-4907-ab2c-f7dc249eac58/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/441e0ec9-dbd8-4c3a-b1fa-0bf7ed4d5872/alert_14-255.pdf

75% are Russians you can find also here.

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/65749.html

One Russian city council deputy, who is fighting in Ukraine and participated Donetsk airport siege, claims that in his unit 90% are from Russia.

http://ura.ru/content/chel/01-10-2014/articles/1036263086.html

OK, lets reconstruct your logic: initially you posted Mal'gin's one-liner "Putin fcuked down everyone", now you support this claim by irrelevant doc about sanctions which says nothing about Putin. LOLWUT?

your next link: one Russian rookie volunteer (who probably didn't even finished a bootcamp) says about 75% of Russians in militia - I yeld to superrior knowledge. :rolleyes:

keywords in the story of a Zlatoust deputy (who probably came to Donbass no more then one month ago)
in his unit 90% are from Russia
Although, these evidences make some sence, I personally believe thal locals who initially were enthusiastic, now become more and more disappointed by lack of material aid and leave militia.

kaur
10-19-2014, 07:43 PM
My friend mirhond, why this kind of acronyms? I thought that you understand the language of diplomats :)

If I remember correctly Strelkov/Girkin complained already in May that locals don't want to fight.

What is feeling in Moscow? Not very entusiastic I suspect looking at this.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=880693611942041&set=a.545012432176829.126967.100000042319105&type=1&theater

About volunteers in Donbas. Sorry, mirhond, my bad. I forgot volunteers from Abkazia and South Ossetia. Do they count as Russians or not? Surkov coordinates them, plus Ukraine, so I think we can count them in?

http://donbass.center/news/1445-v-dnr-dobrovolcy-iz-osetii-pozdravili-dobrovolcev-iz-abhazii-s-dnem-nezavisimosti.html

OUTLAW 09
10-20-2014, 05:12 AM
Hilarious! How did I missed this one?

Ukrainian [former] minister of defence confirmed that Russians used tactical nukes in Luhgansk airport.

http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/303508/pri_shturme_luganskogo_aeroporta_armiya_rf_vozmojn o_ispolzovala_takticheskoe_yadernoe_orujie_geletey i

comrade mirhond---by the way the Russian Army in fact has the Tochka U's in the Ukraine---you must really pay attention to your own Russian Army movements and not the lies told to you by Russian fascists.

by the way you should also check the geolocating work done on the Tochka U missile strike in Donetsk at urkraineatwar.blogspot.nl

OUTLAW 09
10-20-2014, 05:17 AM
comrade mirhnd---if you think your comrade Putin is having economic problems now with his oil check this article was a hedge fund advising group--by the way was it not the great Putin that stated in his Mila press conference it was an oil conspiracy by the US and KSA?

Oil to hit ZERO?


Speculators, like hedge funds and other big money investors, play a role in the price of oil as well. They can push it up past market fundamentals or, as they have recently, cause it to plunge -- the latest dip sent global oil benchmark Brent down 25% to around $85 per barrel, and U.S. oil benchmark WTI even lower.

Energy traders are betting that oil prices will keep falling. In a recent Bloomberg article, Citigroup's global head of energy strategy, Seth Kleinman, was quoted as saying that, "several big, smart commodity hedge funds said oil is going to zero." He went on to say, "they are being somewhat dramatic, but they were incredibly bearish."

Bearish oil bets are growing
These speculators are increasingly putting their money on bigger bets that oil prices will keep plunging. Over the past month, hedge funds and other large speculators lowered their net-long positions in WTI by 4.8% according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC. Meanwhile, short positions in oil jumped almost 8% in the past month. These two factors likely played a role in accelerating oil's plunge in recent weeks as it went into bear market territory.

Speculators have long had an impact on the price of oil, and even OPEC has come out to blame speculators for oil's most recent decline. In its bi-monthly bulletin the organization said that, "the actions of speculators are again behind much of the price decline." Still, OPEC isn't planning on cutting production at the moment, as it can handle lower oil prices while speculators make a few bucks on the downside. After all, let's not forget that in the past OPEC made quite a lot of money when speculators sent oil prices spiking higher, as in July of 2008. So it's not ready to break the speculators just yet.

How low could speculators push oil prices?
There is certainly reasons to be bearish on oil prices, at least in the short term. Oil production in the U.S. is up to a 28-year high, while demand will be lower this year than it was in 2012. With so much oil coming out of one of the world's top oil consumers, it's no surprise that oil prices are finally falling.

How far oil prices will go before hitting bottom is anyone's guess. However, oil producers in the U.S. will likely cut spending to drill new wells if oil prices stay at their current levels for too long. Meanwhile, if oil prices fall to around $70 per barrel, producers will likely make even deeper cuts. Finally, oil prices in the $60 range mean that the U.S. oil boom would likely screech to a halt as producers dramatically cut spending, and jobs too. This is all assuming OPEC doesn't cut its production first.

However, leaving OPEC out of the equation, it is unlikely that oil would go below $60 per barrel and stay there for too long. The spending cuts by American oil companies will have an even more immediate impact, because oil production from shale wells declines rapidly. Take a look at the following chart of oil production from the Eagle Ford shale in Texas.

All the money producers are pouring into the Eagle Ford shale right now is expected to yield production from new wells of 154,000 barrels of oil per day. However, net production is rising by just 35,000 barrels per day, because the production from previously drilled wells is expected to decline by 119,000 barrels per day. So once producers start to cut spending, production from new wells will dry up and the change in legacy production will eat into production.

Oil will never be free
Because of this dynamic it won't take long before oil production in the U.S. begins to fall. This would work to stabilize oil prices in the short to medium term, and likely cause oil prices to start heading higher in the longer term. So don't bank on oil ever being free. Instead, get used to the fact that oil prices, while volatile, will likely always push higher.

OUTLAW 09
10-20-2014, 05:21 AM
here is something else for you comrade mirhond to read---it is a listing of the Russian Brigades inside the Ukraine and the Russia troop loses per Brigade---and you claim you guys are winning---some "win"

Tabelle mit Namen der russischen Brigade and Nummer der Verluste
pic.twitter.com/uaR1sGWd8f

AND even more for you to read about Russian loses that Putin does nt talk about.

FINALLY--even your own MoD is starting to say some numbers even when they are totally wrong:

Russian defence Ministry confirmed 900 out of 4360 dead Russian forces in Donbas

http://censor.net.ua/n307805

NOTICE mirhond--your Russian MoD does not talk about 131 Russian POWs that the Ukraine is currently holding.

OUTLAW 09
10-20-2014, 04:37 PM
It seems that now even the Russian mercenaries state the "ceasefire" is over.

Actually there was never a ceasefire other than in the heads of the politicians but on the ground the fighting continued as hard as ever.

Following massive explosions in Donetsk, Ukraine rebel leader says 'ceasefire' is over

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-245-huge-explosion-in-central-donetsk/#4667 …

pic.twitter.com/yotRcs9kGq

BREAKING: "After today's missiles on #Donetsk, truce, even formal, must be considered terminated" - Zakharchenko

OUTLAW 09
10-20-2014, 05:32 PM
Again, this time from Boris Sokolov. Putin has "no choice" but to conquer all of Ukraine in days/weeks ahead. http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2014/10/window-on-eurasia-putin-has-no.html …

And so the idea of negotiations got us what again?

#Russia has now official green light to deploy in #Crimea tactical-nuclear bombers Ту-22М3 & Iskander-M complexes.
pic.twitter.com/ds9kwyGZOy

SBU neutralized group of Russian saboteurs In Odessa http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/

It becomes more evident ceasefire and no fire mode was #Ukraine tactics to have political leverage before negotiations. Now they are over.

OK #Ukraine army several sources have confirmed they've got permission to "vaccinate or exterminate the rabid ones."

OUTLAW 09
10-20-2014, 05:40 PM
Russia's "on vacation sub in Sweden" denials are getting stranger by the hour.

First the Russians accused the Danes who pushed back stating their crews do not speak Russian and now this comment by Moscow.

Netherlands prove it's not their submarine off Stockholm. In panic, Kremlin says it must be "lost" Japanese WW2 sub!
pic.twitter.com/E48fQj3vNI

OUTLAW 09
10-20-2014, 06:21 PM
It seems that now even the Russian mercenaries state the "ceasefire" is over.

Actually there was never a ceasefire other than in the heads of the politicians but on the ground the fighting continued as hard as ever.

Following massive explosions in Donetsk, Ukraine rebel leader says 'ceasefire' is over

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-245-huge-explosion-in-central-donetsk/#4667 …

pic.twitter.com/yotRcs9kGq

BREAKING: "After today's missiles on #Donetsk, truce, even formal, must be considered terminated" - Zakharchenko

Today's explosion in Donetsk
pic.twitter.com/F0Db5TzR9G
http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/20-october-another-photo-of-alexander-klimenko-todays-explosion

mirhond
10-23-2014, 09:18 AM
Where separatists get their ammo:

http://112.ua/kriminal/v-portu-nikolaevskoy-oblasti-prokuratura-obnaruzhila-propazhu-okolo-25-mln-patronov-133748.html


В сообщении говорится, что вследствие небрежного отношения с 2000 года по настоящее время без надлежащего учета, охраны и режима сохранялось 50 млн патронов калибра 7,62, которые по договору комиссии с государственной компанией "Укрспецэкспорт" предназначались для реализации в одну из африканских стран, однако, в связи с наложением эмбарго на экспорт, реализованы не были.

"Проведенной в ходе проверки инвентаризацией указанных средств поражения зафиксировано наличие лишь половины из их первоначального количества. Любые данные о местонахождении остальных патронов отсутствуют.

In short: Ukroarmy officials fcuked up 25 mln. rounds, whereabouts is unknown.
I give 70% probability that militias drunk from that source for months.

kaur
10-31-2014, 11:15 AM
Moscow's Spy Game
Why Russia Is Winning the Intelligence War in Ukraine
By Mark Galeotti OCTOBER 30, 2014

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142321/mark-galeotti/moscows-spy-game

OUTLAW 09
10-31-2014, 03:13 PM
BREAKING In #Donetsk today #Russian regular army unit #16544 (Borzoy, #Cehchnya) of the 8th cavalry ОМСБр spotted.
pic.twitter.com/DxvSZJpyfz

#BREAKINGNEWS Today, the Russian Federation Army took over command to storm #Donetsk #airport!
New troops, new equp.
pic.twitter.com/KRMpWlKzld

This is hilarious! #Russian terrorists in #Ukraine show shot down an UAV. It's a #Russian Orlan-10!
https://twitter.com/askai707/status/527432884274360320

LPR Cossack leader claims in gazeta.ru interview that they have a nuclear warhead.
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2014/10/30_a_6283505.shtml

CONFIRMED He was a #Russian regular army soldier. Had army documents on him. No one is claiming his body.
pic.twitter.com/jBzZyJtAWh

OUTLAW 09
10-31-2014, 04:12 PM
Perfect example of a Russian info war troll using a US alias---check the number of followers---surprised Twitter has not shut it down.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/528213161460383745/photo/1

I had posted the link to the info war recruiting and now this seems to be the result of the Russian headhunter ad.

OUTLAW 09
10-31-2014, 04:34 PM
Russian "humiliation"?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/30/are-russian-bombers-flying-nuclear-drills-near-europe-or-just-testing-nato-s-defenses.html

OUTLAW 09
10-31-2014, 05:05 PM
#Komaxidze: #Russian army AA unit #32383 of the 67th AA brigade in #Ukraine army territory.

https://www.facebook.com/irakli.komaxidze/posts/685204861592763 …

#Breaking Russian army forces established mobile Msta-S positions in #Stakhanov and fire on Ukr checkpoints N+S the #Seversky_Donets river

Russian Command Orders Local Terrorists to Paralyze Donetsk-Mariupol Road, Tymchuk Claims

31.10.2014 12:08

This is stated by Dmytro on his Facebook page, Censor.NET reports.

"The Russian command has set an urgent task to its divisions and local gangs to paralyze the road in the direction of Mariupol. Also there are recorded attempts of the subversive reconnaissance groups to penetrate the area west of Mariupol to block the Novoazovsk - Odesa E58 route. The Ukrainian troops actively search and neutralize these groups," he wrote.

However, Tymchuk noted that in the area of Mariupol the subversive groups conduct reconnaissance of targets (checkpoints, command posts, positions, base camps of the Ukrainian troops). Also reconnaissance of shooting results is being conducted. The enemy seeks to inflict fire damage to our troops on the front line with the help of intense artillery fire.

"The same scheme (zeroing with subsequent massive fire strikes on stationary targets) is being used by the enemy at Volnovakha direction. Schematics of the objects and evaluation of the firing results are also conducted by the subversive groups," he added.

OUTLAW 09
11-01-2014, 12:25 PM
Third extremely large Russian military convoy in the last two days with no plates seen heading into Donetsk today---journalists were told to delete all photos.

https://twitter.com/shelomovskiy/status/528521108556091392/photo/1

Spanish journalists car was stopped for taking pictures of the convoy. The journos were asked to delete the pictures

OUTLAW 09
11-01-2014, 01:29 PM
Although this site is normally using Ukrainian and Russian they have been exceptionally correct in calling a number of the Russian attacks and pointing out Ukrainian Army weaknesses.

Although translated using Google---still worth reading and if anywhere close to the reality things are going to get far rougher in the eastern Ukraine in the coming days.

Again mentioning of the Russian desire to take the Odessa land corridor.

pic.twitter.com/poJMztQ7i0

10.31.14 Russian Federation continues to build grouping their forces on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Thus increasing number of reports about the presence of militants multiple rocket launchers "Smerch" (one of the set of locations - the stock TD "Dominion", Donetsk, the distance to the headquarters of our military in the locality Kramators'k - 84.5 km) "Hurricane" (NP GORLOVKA, a former railway station "Wash", 48 km). Also noticed movement SAM C300 (one of the set of locations 2 starter plants - warehouse TD "Dominion", Donetsk). In the case of modification of PMU-1, the presence of these funds significantly complicates the use of tactical aviation within the whole of the crisis region.

Also spotted mass rotation of personnel militant groups, while there was a tendency to replace the local militia on Russian servicemen. So, for example, in the locality Elenovka predominant number of personnel at checkpoints has obvious signs of belonging to the Armed Forces. In the Petrovsky district of Donetsk in the last 3 days have gone local militants; locals confirm the presence of a large amount of members of the Army of the Russian Federation. This is most likely caused by the desire to replace out-of-control militant groups. High probability of deployment of advanced control point near the former mine shaft "Chekist» (N47 ° 58'14,89 "; E37 ° 34'23,95" - unfinished military facility), evidenced by a cordon of the village mine security officers as well as deployment of communications near st. Markina.

It should be noted the increase in the number of troops and armored vehicles in settlements ALCHEVSK, Bryanka, Perevalsk, GORLOVKA, Enakieve and the creation of a reserve in the settlement Rovenki, anthracene, snow, red beam.

Accumulation seen in the area of ​​impact forces Telmanovo, Day, Krasnopole, unfolding in the area of ​​field hospitals. Based on the overlapping portion of the road E-58 near Samsonov-nameless, we can conclude to the existence of a large number of armored vehicles.

Also note the work of the enemy sabotage groups in the area of ​​human settlements Kostiantynivka (locals reported firing of small arms in the evening 10/30/14) Debaltseve (arrival of groups of snipers to destroy the artillery gun crews APU), Mariupol.

Thus, the combined forces of Russia and terrorist organizations "LC" and "DNR" ready to conduct a large-scale attack on several fronts.

The main direction of impact are expected to be:
1. South-west: ◾ Group "A": Elenovka-Dokuchaevsk-Volnovaha (task: to cut off supply routes ATO forces in the area and STAROGNATOVKI connection with groups "B" and "B" in the region of n. N. Volnovaha in the future to continue along routes are the T-0509 on Mr. n. Ugledar. Problem: association with a strike group "D" with the aim of creating the encircled troops ATO near the settlement and Kostiantynivka NOVOMIHAYLOVKA).
◾ Group "B": KOMSOMOLSOKE STAROGNATOVKA-Don (task: to cut the group of forces near the settlement ATO STAROGNATOVKA and connect with a group of "A" and "B" in the region of n. N. Volnovaha. Further tasks are laid out in Sec. 1.1 )
◾ Group "B": Telmanovo-granite-Don. Objective: Significant Groupings ATO dissection near the settlement STAROGNATOVKA, the connection with groups "A" and "B" to create a strike force to further advance in the direction of DON-KIROVSKE MALOYANISOL-REPUBLIC-support operations group "G" on the right)
◾ Group "D": KRASNOARMEYSK-TALAKOVKA-Volodarsk Mangushev (task: to cut off the supply lines of forces in the village of ATU Mariupol and gain control over the highway E-58).
◾ Group "D": Donetsk Marinka-Kurakhovo (task: access to the rear of the group of forces in the ATO and Kostiantynivka NOVOMIHAYLOVKE to prevent attack on the flank of the shock group "A". The further problem: the offensive in the direction of the settlement Ugledar to create the environment grouping of forces near the settlement ATO Kostiantynivka and NOVOMIHAYLOVKA).

2. Northwest: ◾ Group "E": Spartak-Avdiyivka-Ocheretino (objective: Capture airport "Donetsk", creating the conditions for a successful strike from n. N. GORLOVKA in the direction n. N. Dzerzhinsky)
◾ Groups "G.1": GORLOVKA-Svetlodarsk-Artemovskii; "G.2" PERVOMAYSKIY-Popasnaya-Artemovskii; "Z": GORLOVKA-Dzerzhinsk-Kostiantynivka (problem: the alignment of the front line in a northerly direction to retain control over rokadnoy T0504 highway, cutting off supply routes grouping of forces in the region ATO n. N. Debaltseve, creating the starting line for the offensive in the direction of n. n. KRAMATORSK and Slavic).

3. North: ◾ Group "I": Bryanka-PERVOMAYSKIY-Lisichanskiy (confirmation there holding artillery barrage on n. N. Gorski, and noticed movement in the direction of the checkpoint № 31. Objective: Capture control n. N. Lisicansk, Severodonetsk, a landmark. In the future development assault on Mr. n. Novoaydar with the aim of cutting supply lines forces TAU group in n. n. of happiness).

4. Northeast: the enemy's advance on settlement Fortunately, this situation can be regarded as impossible, since p. Seversky Donets River, which divides the Luhansk region in half, there is a pretty good defensive line. That is why, the main focus should be considered a strike strike group "E", the purpose of which will be taking possession of Lisichanskiy and Severodonetskoye to control the crossings over water obstacles to further development of the offensive in the region with the aim to cut Novoaydar communication grouping of forces in N ATO. n. Happiness.

Presumably, given shock will be preceded by attacks on NP KRAMATORSK (perhaps MLRS "Smerch") and other settlements, where the headquarters are stationed sectors to disrupt the control system by the ATO.

The reason for the start of full-scale offensive, likely to become a powerful provocation, to be held during the elections 11.02.14.

Signs of preparation for applying to the provocations have armor strips rapid identification of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as the announced meeting "Patriot of Ukraine" in the Donetsk and Lugansk. Presumably - shelling densely populated areas of Donetsk and Luhansk border zone (on the western outskirts of Donetsk based long-range artillery and MLRS "Grad", the contents of which at a minimum distance from the contact line contradicts the logic). A similar pattern in other localities.

Ie 2/11/14 will be the reference point for the start of full-scale hostilities by terrorists. But most offensive will presumably 04-05.11.14. It will be linked to the need to sum up the election, if the management of terrorist organizations want to look legitimate. After that, the "legitimate" government of the newly created Republic "LC" and "DNR" declare war on Ukraine. In such a case, any agreement would lose its power and RF perform an ally in the war. This will give the opportunity to use other than existing systems defeat the militants also, for example, the operational-tactical missile systems.

An indirect confirmation of the date 04-05.11.14 there are rumors that walk among fans DNI in the locality KRAMATORSK and Slavic. According to rumors, these numbers planned return of the DNI in these localities.

mirhond
11-04-2014, 09:23 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxjlbjhcwjc&list=UULX-a4XtNcbGbTXVO31oIBw&index=14

Militiamen remove unexploded Grad missile from rehabilitation centre. It seems none of them have any experience in explosives - these guys either extremely brave or extremely crazy.

mirhond
11-04-2014, 10:41 AM
MOAR nonsence from previously mentioned Elena Vasil'eva (special tribute to outlaw :D )

http://www.evasiljeva.ru/2014/09/blog-post_24.html

list of Russian soldiers "killed" under Debal'tzevo, Donbass.



1. гвардии младший сержант Виктор Карпухин 1989 гр - Guards sergeant Viktor Karpukhin
2. гвардии рядовой Никита Сурков 1987 гр - Guards private Nikita Surkov
3. гвардии старший сержант Глущенко Виталий 1985 гр - Guards sergeant Gluschenko Vitaliy
4. прапорщик Александр Никулин . 1979 гр - warrant officer Aleksandr Nikulin
5. старший прапорщик Мыльников Николай 1977 гр - warrant officer Myl'nikov Nikolai
6. старший прапорщик Сергей Дымов 1975 гр - warrant officer Sergei Dymov
7. рядовые Гамов Владислав и Гамов Сергей - privates Gamov Sergei and Gamov Vladislav
8. Сорокин Евгений старший лейтенант - leutenant Sorokin Evgeniy
9. Дмитрий Абрамов из разведки - scout Dmitriy Abramov

OK, lets check the names:

1. Виктор Карпухин, 1989 - Viktor Karpukhin Anatolievich, 27.12.1989, soccer player, team "Gazovik", Orenburg, 2011-2012
http://fcgazovik.ru/content/view/858/181/

2. Никита Сурков, 1987 - Surkov Nikita Vladimirovich, 11.08.1987,
3. Глущенко Виталий, 1985 - Gluschenko Vitaliy Aleksandrovich 17.03.1985
4. Александр Никулин. 1979 - Nikulin Aleksandr Pavlovich, 14.02.1979,
5. Мыльников Николай 1977 - Myl'nikov Nikolai Vladimirovich, 13.09.1977
6. Сергей Дымов 1975 - Dymov Sergei V'acheslavovich, 11.07.1975,
soccer players, team "Gazovik" 2008
http://fcgazovik.ru/content/view/131/114/

7. Гамов Владислав и Гамов Сергей - Gamov Vladislav Evgeniyevich, 02.10.1993, Gamov Sergei Sergeevich, 06.07.1995
8. Сорокин Евгений - Sorokin Evgeniy Andreevich, 28.11.1995,
9. Дмитрий Абрамов - Abramov Dmitriy Alekseevich, 10.02.1994
soccer players, shadow team "Gazovik-2"
http://fcgazovik.ru/content/view/2284/205/

Looks like a half of the team decimated, what a terrible loss for Russian soccer!:D

The most funny part of this nonsence that Vasil'eva alvays provide photocopies of army documents which look like authentical, with all this bureaukratese, seals, signatures, sent to her by "anonimous honest officers". I believe it's a work of some 80th levell troll inside an army.

OUTLAW 09
11-04-2014, 02:59 PM
mirhond---care to make a comment on this Russian artillery unit.

#Komaxidze: #Russian army the 439th artillery unit #69673 spotted @ & in #Ukraine since Sept.

https://www.facebook.com/irakli.komaxidze/posts/687316788048237 …

OUTLAW 09
11-04-2014, 04:35 PM
Appears that the Ukraine is now calling Russia on their support of the mercenary elections.

1. Ukraine will revoke the key special status that Russia so wanted for the Donbas-basically puts the economic support for the mercenary regions onto Russia

and:

#Ukraine's President #Poroshenko orders reinforcements to key south and eastern cities in case of new rebel offensive via @BBCBreaking

Looks like the Ukraine is heading to a full war footing after placing full blame on Russia today if war breaks out between them which will only drive the Russian economy even deeper than it is currently.

Russian has now been "called out" by the Ukraine--and they were not "suckered in"?

WHAT is extremely interesting is that both RIA and Interfax seem to be at a "loss for words" on the latest Ukrainian moves--ABSOLUTELY no comments on them for now literally hours.

No comments either on the extremely fast falling oil prices today nor any comments on the German statement that the sanctions will remain in place for a while to come and potentially more are on the road due to Russian support to the mercenary elections which are a full violation of the Minsk 1 and 2 accords that yes even Russia signed.

Actually both news agencies seem extremely quiet today---totally unusual for them.

mirhond
11-05-2014, 09:21 PM
Rada's commission of inquiry report on Ilovaisk defeat, July-Aug.2014

http://obozrevatel.com/crime/04295-otchet-vsk-vr-po-tragedii-v-ilovajske-eksklyuzivnyij-dokument.htm


Напередодні параду в Києві, 23 серпня від Державної прикордонної служби України надійшла інформація про виявлення на території Сектору Д колон броньованої техніки, яка висувається з території Російської Федерації в напрямку населених пунктів Амвросьевка, Кутейникове.
Доповідь керівника Сектору Д генерала Литвина П.М. в штаб АТО о 14.30 23 серпня про виявлені колони російської броньованої техніки була розцінена як паніка і залишилась без уваги і прийняття рішень.
Реакція начальника штабу АТО генерал-лейтенанта Назарова В.М. на чергову доповідь був лаконічним: "Це все херня. Ми це вже проходили. Тримайтесь!"
Прпозиції про відведення військ з метою запобігання блокування та оточення не затвердили.
О 21.15 23 серпня генерал Литвин П.М. був викликаний на зв’язок з начальником Генерального штабу, який в цей час перебував в кабінеті міністра оборони.
Першим доповідь генерала Литвина П.М. вислухав міністр і без коментарів передав слухавку начальнику Генерального штабу, який у відповідь на доповідь сказав: "При зміні обстановки доповідайте в установленому порядку" і повісив слухавку. Жодних команд не було віддано.
Приблизно о 10.30 24 серпня, під час параду в Києві, офіцери штабу Сектору Д на чолі з полковником Ромигайло П.Д. з передового командного пункту в лісопосадці на трасі Амвросіївка-Кутейникове спостерігали колону бронетехніки російської армії загальною чисельністю понад 100 одиниць, у складі бойових машин десанту, танків, самохідних артилерійських знарядь, а також великої кількості тентованих КАМАЗів з боєприпасами та особовим складом, які на великій швидкості рухались вглиб території України.
Інформація про колону російської бронетехніки полковником Ромигайло П.Д. була негайно доведена до начальника штабу АТО генерала Назарова В.М. Відповідь: "Йдіть на х..! Боягузи! С вас посаджу!"
Приблизно о 12.00 вказана інформація в телефонній розмові була доведена начальнику Генерального штабу Муженку В.М.
У відповідь надійшла одна команда "Не сси! Це все херня! Ми все це проходили!".
Ніякі рішення по доповідях прийняті не були.

The major idea is: Supreme command comepletely ignored all evidences of large enemy reinforcements arriving to theatre of operations and therefore allowed crushing defeat to happen.

OUTLAW 09
11-06-2014, 11:50 AM
Rada's commission of inquiry report on Ilovaisk defeat, July-Aug.2014

http://obozrevatel.com/crime/04295-otchet-vsk-vr-po-tragedii-v-ilovajske-eksklyuzivnyij-dokument.htm



The major idea is: Supreme command comepletely ignored all evidences of large enemy reinforcements arriving to theatre of operations and therefore allowed crushing defeat to happen.


mirhond---care to comment and Putin just keeps on stating "
no Russian troops in the Ukraine---come on mirhond you have got to get Putin to stop lying--maybe he will listen to you as we do not listen to you.

BREAKING Video emerged of a #Russian army sergeant telling abt war in #Ukraine being there.
https://twitter.com/InformNapalm/status/530239841930203136

OUTLAW 09
11-06-2014, 04:20 PM
I often use the term that Putin "is in an altered state of reality" and now some took offense--now it seems it is a standard phase in the blogging world.

Lots of heads shaking in disbelief as Russia raises "Ukraine's non-compliance with Minsk" at OSCE--pushing alternate reality.

OUTLAW 09
11-06-2014, 05:20 PM
Valid point---does in fact the US government fully understand just what s ongoing in eastern Ukraine?

Latest intel on increased RU forces in/near #Ukraine - SACEUR asks for more troops to counter, is Obama listening?
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-moving-missiles-rockets-toward-eastern-ukraine/ …

Putin escalating conflict #Russia sent 50 more tanks into #Ukraine yesterday.#Donetsk #Luhansk #Mariupol #Putinhulyo
pic.twitter.com/YVGx6IYIyx

The @OSCE mission on Russia's border has observed 14 fuel trucks bringing "aid" to #Ukraine http://www.osce.org/om/126266
http://www.osce.org/om/126363


US & Germany have refused Ukraine's "requests for military assistance... that might deter a new Russian offensive" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/mr-putin-resumes-his-chipping-away-at-ukraine …

OUTLAW 09
11-06-2014, 06:09 PM
Someone else who does not support the idea of the Russian "NATO humiliation myths" Putin uses to justify his actions:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 5, 2014 – Russia is "pushing on the limits of international order," the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia in general are pushing the limits because they don’t believe the international order was crafted in a way that met their national interests, Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey said during a question-and-answer session at an event on hiring veterans in New York.

Putin and Russia express a sense of victimization following the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the chairman said. Noting that the Russian president recently delivered a speech on that narrative, Dempsey characterized it as “an anti-Western soliloquy that literally lasted for about three hours."

OUTLAW 09
11-07-2014, 09:46 AM
kaur--it does now appear as if the revolution is eating it's children these days.

He was here from day one and rumored to have been also involved in the Crimea before the eastern Ukraine.

Maybe we need to check in with mirhond and ask him why the FSB killed him?

+++ Breaking +++. Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported the murder of Igor Bezler (The Demon) http://tvrain.ru/articles/minoborony_ukrainy_soobschilo_ob_ubijste_igorja_be sa_bezlera-377744/ …


https://twitter.com/OnlineMagazin/status/530647081716047872/photo/1

OUTLAW 09
11-07-2014, 12:35 PM
BREAKING Confirmed #Russian casualties on Nov 6. Putilovkiy forest, #Donetsk outskirts - 4 tanks, 3 BMPs, more than 150 KIA of regular army

The brick factory in #Marinka has long been known as the base of #Russian terrorists.

BREAKING Confirmed #Russian casualties on Nov 6. #Marinka, #Donetsk region - 1 tank, 3 BMPs, 4 APCs. Direct hit to a brick factory - 200 KIA

OUTLAW 09
11-09-2014, 01:48 PM
Russian invaders show themselves with a 240mm mortar,proving they use the 2S4 “Tyulpan” in #Donetsk
Link:https://twitter.com/search?q=pic.twitter.com%2FHz8TPkmChR&src=typd

OUTLAW 09
11-09-2014, 02:54 PM
Russian invaders show themselves with a 240mm mortar,proving they use the 2S4 “Tyulpan” in #Donetsk
Link:https://twitter.com/search?q=pic.twitter.com%2FHz8TPkmChR&src=typd

This type of weapons system was forbidden under the Minsk agreements.

VIDEO: More alleged footage of Russian military equipment arriving in Donetsk region

http://youtu.be/cjYpEVayzfA
pic.twitter.com/Qwm5PYYeAE

Breaking News @OSCE_SMM wakes from hotel beds and says it saw an "unknown convoy of trucks" (after everybody else)

VIDEO #Russia convoy 80 veh IN #RUSSIA BEFORE enter #Ukraine today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plPgD1nPOLo&list=UUAZg55_KAkaKdJxqDd4JksA … IN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq1iBchjVFk …
pic.twitter.com/mco474wz0O

Echelon in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region
http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/9-november-echelon-in-kamenskshakhtinsky-rostov-region- …
pic.twitter.com/iOZg2GAnc

#Donetsk sees most intense combat since ceasefire
http://dw.de/p/1DjdN

OUTLAW 09
11-09-2014, 04:07 PM
This type of weapons system was forbidden under the Minsk agreements.

VIDEO: More alleged footage of Russian military equipment arriving in Donetsk region

http://youtu.be/cjYpEVayzfA
pic.twitter.com/Qwm5PYYeAE

Breaking News @OSCE_SMM wakes from hotel beds and says it saw an "unknown convoy of trucks" (after everybody else)

VIDEO #Russia convoy 80 veh IN #RUSSIA BEFORE enter #Ukraine today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plPgD1nPOLo&list=UUAZg55_KAkaKdJxqDd4JksA … IN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq1iBchjVFk …
pic.twitter.com/mco474wz0O

Echelon in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region
http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/9-november-echelon-in-kamenskshakhtinsky-rostov-region- …
pic.twitter.com/iOZg2GAnc

#Donetsk sees most intense combat since ceasefire
http://dw.de/p/1DjdN



#NSDC says #Russian troops in #Donbas could stage massive provocations to "justify" deploym Rus "peacekeepers"

How to hide your license plate, Russian style
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/multimedia/photogalleries/how-to-hide-your-license-plate-russian-style/5457.html …
pic.twitter.com/C35BGpfgKa

OUTLAW 09
11-10-2014, 06:22 AM
Appears now that the Russian propaganda has forced Putin into a corner--definitely not the effect info war wants.

Vedomosti:"Russia's pushed itself into a corner (over E.Ukraine).Russian media whipped up a hysteria that deprives politics of flexibility"

OUTLAW 09
11-10-2014, 06:27 AM
See professional #Russia|n paid #troll.Entire list of #trolls in watchlist.Pretends studying #counterterrorism.#cyber

pic.twitter.com/SVGZhi0WPk

OUTLAW 09
11-10-2014, 11:59 AM
Appears that even Putin is not fully in touch with the eastern Ukraine reality on the ground--he stated today in RIA that "he does not understand why the MH17 investigation is not moving ahead as the mercenaries do n ot control the crash site".

Journalists reported today as well they were controlled a number of times in and around the crash site by mercenary checkpoints.

Seems Putin did not get the memo about mercenary checkpoints actually being in the crash site area.

OUTLAW 09
11-10-2014, 12:01 PM
Seems as if the Russian Army forgot to take off their vehicle license plates when they crossed the border again today.

But hey Putin just keeps on stating--no Russian troops in the Ukraine.


#BreakingNews Ukrainian @NSDC_ua posts video with military trucks with #lisence_plates as "RF trucks".

https://twitter.com/NSDC_ua/status/531768884303757312 …

kaur
11-10-2014, 01:05 PM
OSCE UAV jamming.


This tiny Camcopter will help OSCE monitoring the shaky ceasefire in Ukraine
Oct 25 2014

http://theaviationist.com/2014/10/25/osce-s-100-camcopter/


4 November 2014 At 13.01hrs and again at 13.19hrs the SMM UAV was subjected to serious electronic jamming while flying over “DPR”-controlled Chermalyk (40km NE of Mariupol). Initial analysis of the SMM UAV flight log data indicated that the SMM UAV was subjected to military-grade GPS jamming.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126364


8 November 2014 It is decisive that all sides strictly observe the commitments made in the framework of the Minsk protocol and memorandum and stay away from acts which could lead to new escalation, he added. The CiO thanked the SMM for its substantial reports and concluded by calling on all sides to provide conditions that allow for unhindered SMM monitoring, including by means of UAVs,

http://www.osce.org/cio/126484

OUTLAW 09
11-10-2014, 03:00 PM
A day in the life of the Ukrainian Army dealing with "an incursion" not an "invasion".

#BRK
Eye witnesses claim seeing a Russian army Pantsir-S1, just 500m from an Ukranian checkpoint near #Mariupol.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.0629.com.ua/news/662451&usg=ALkJrhh1T4MogZS6ZZGdjSZ5hTPQ2lEncA …

Glad to see, also @ukrpravda_news incorporated my reporting on Russian army tanks in #Donetsk.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/11/10/7043745/ … pic.twitter.com/ZbskdXhu9i

60 km from Russian border we observed a convoi this morning with 15 armytrucks plus artillerie. Heading for Donetsk.
pic.twitter.com/dssK6LD0vN

#BreakingFootage from #Debaltseve, which is under heavy Russian shelling now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjGdHIHmuMw …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhJjokJ3qCY …

@SimonOstrovsky spots 5 tanks heading west out of #Shakhtarsk, 2 APCs flying #Russia|n flags r close behind #ukraine
pic.twitter.com/hy6b5OJzOm

http://vk.com/ohotnik_za_golovami … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1FSJJ-vFvA … 'Volunteer' fr #Moscow, #Russia, b/vlogs abt #Ukraine's 'civil war'
pic.twitter.com/ayzEbsky4V

Invasion of Ukraine: Almost all the troops which stood near the Ukrainian border have entered Donbas....
http://fb.me/1GbT5gG4c

There are again reports of Russian troops fighting each other in #Horlivka with one group, willing to further advance, other to talk w/Ukr.

http://vk.com/wall-73804977_66068 … #Russian 'volunteer' fr #Moscow killed by rival warlord in #Russia-occupied #Makiivka,#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Odo39yiSa0

URGENT: Russian and Separatist Tanks on the Move in Ukraine. T-72s Appear To Be Variety Not Used By Ukraine
http://bit.ly/1uVW2dZ

Military confirms 12 Russian paratroopers suspected of dying in Ukraine were killed outside base, but won't say where
http://vedomosti.ru/~HRR

#BreakingFootage claims to show Russian troops, advancing in #Marinka, S-W of #Donetsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aiVtF5GlZ0

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 06:01 AM
For those that believe international organizations are not under control of Russia---ie the OSCE.

If one looks at the Russia UW strategy it foresees the use of NGO types of organizations to mislead and misinform.

There has been massive accusations by the Ukraine that the OSCE is not impartial and has been passing info on Ukrainian military positions to the mercenaries and or "not seen" Russian troop and equipment convoys until bloggers and the western media point out the constant convoys.

"They [@OSCE_SMM] are very aggressive towards our military. Moreover, they convey information about the location of our troops."
#Ukraine

.@OSCE mission staff in #Donetsk & #Mariupol are 80% #Russia|n, AND #FSB / #GRU Intelligence agents — #Ukraine's MoD
pic.twitter.com/em3Fpe8CsR

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 06:16 AM
For those that believe the ceasefire violations as the Russians state over and over come from the Ukrainian Army side---the first video released by the mercenaries of them planning and carrying out artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions.

VIDEO #Russia terrorists plan & execute artillery barrage on #Ukraine positions (Eng Subs)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbyieUw-xuo&list=UUG2L5r9T5iYCH0Mmgq85jNQ …
pic.twitter.com/vpveRFKHwf

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 10:05 AM
Russia is in full "invasion" mode and the West says nothing---notice the silence from the US civilian leadership.

Notice all they do is "urge"--but nothing stronger than "urge"---"urge" has never stopped a shooting war.
U.S. Urges Russia To 'Stop Fueling The Fire' In Ukraine
http://bit.ly/1uhUskA
pic.twitter.com/BVsrTJq803

Even after 40 confirmed serious security/air space breaches by Russian aircraft and one near miss of a civilian passenger jet yet still no response from the US civilian leadership.

There are some in Europe openly accusing the US of remaining silent as they feel Russia is nudging the Iranians to a compromise and do not want to endanger that---so the silence on the Ukraine is proof of that.

Might in fact be true but the current Iranian Supreme religious leader Khamenei with his tirade against the Israeli's last week might have been the signal Iran is not going to compromise.

Khamenei's tweets to annihilate Israel were cause to break off the nuclear negotiations & announce a reconsideration of Iran policy.

Now back to the Russian non "invasion invasion".

#BREAKINGNEWS
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIAN_ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Tymchuk: #Russia reactivated an airbase on #Ukraine's border & in the last 24h at least 20 planes carrying Russian troops/arms landed there

BREAKING:
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIA|N ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …
pic.twitter.com/0zlhtb0GAA

BREAKING Fresh #Russian army column in #Ukraine heading for #Donetsk on Nov11. 36 KamAZ trucks, 8 GRAD units,7 D-30s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Enemy is most active at #Debaltseve, #Luhansk, #Donetsk dir. #Russia keeps reinforcing attack groups - Tymchuk
pic.twitter.com/LEBz15c1qE

Large military convoy driving to #Donetsk as we follow Dutch experts out of city to #MH17 crash site

VIDEO #Russia daily invasion convoy H21 Motorway #Donetsk 36 KAMAZ Trucks,8 GRAD,etc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY&feature=youtu.be … #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/T8na8AFJQO

Russia-sponsored separatists in #Novoazovsk, #Donetsk region has got the SA-22 Greyhound missile launcher - military expert Tymchuk.

Other vehicles that also came in with #Russia invasion convoy #Donetsk #Ukraine-troops in bus,poss GRU intel vehicles
pic.twitter.com/6QuvgDuQnr

#Russia invasion convoy to #Donetsk packed with ammo & a possible portable mortuary -meaning offensive war #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/DQ9HqrihVO

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 10:20 AM
For those that believe international organizations are not under control of Russia---ie the OSCE.

If one looks at the Russia UW strategy it foresees the use of NGO types of organizations to mislead and misinform.

There has been massive accusations by the Ukraine that the OSCE is not impartial and has been passing info on Ukrainian military positions to the mercenaries and or "not seen" Russian troop and equipment convoys until bloggers and the western media point out the constant convoys.

"They [@OSCE_SMM] are very aggressive towards our military. Moreover, they convey information about the location of our troops."
#Ukraine

.@OSCE mission staff in #Donetsk & #Mariupol are 80% #Russia|n, AND #FSB / #GRU Intelligence agents — #Ukraine's MoD
pic.twitter.com/em3Fpe8CsR

So the OSCE is "neutral"?

#OSCE disclosed location of Ukr mil equip @ a meeting w/ Rus!, Ukr reps at Joint Control-Coordinat center y'day
http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/obse-raportuet-o-mestah-dislokacii-ukrainskih-voennyh-158496_.html

This is the core reason Putin and Russia constantly keep pushing back they have troops in the Ukraine and are sending heavy equipment into eastern Ukraine--if they admit it then they are forced out of the OSCE Observer missions for the length of the conflict---that they cannot afford to do.

If #Russia would be recognized as part of conflict in E #Ukraine,its observers would be suspended from @OSCE_SMM work
pic.twitter.com/wFwVhtI4J6

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 11:36 AM
Russia is in full "invasion" mode and the West says nothing---notice the silence from the US civilian leadership.

Notice all they do is "urge"--but nothing stronger than "urge"---"urge" has never stopped a shooting war.
U.S. Urges Russia To 'Stop Fueling The Fire' In Ukraine
http://bit.ly/1uhUskA
pic.twitter.com/BVsrTJq803

Even after 40 confirmed serious security/air space breaches by Russian aircraft and one near miss of a civilian passenger jet yet still no response from the US civilian leadership.

There are some in Europe openly accusing the US of remaining silent as they feel Russia is nudging the Iranians to a compromise and do not want to endanger that---so the silence on the Ukraine is proof of that.

Might in fact be true but the current Iranian Supreme religious leader Khamenei with his tirade against the Israeli's last week might have been the signal Iran is not going to compromise.

Khamenei's tweets to annihilate Israel were cause to break off the nuclear negotiations & announce a reconsideration of Iran policy.

Now back to the Russian non "invasion invasion".

#BREAKINGNEWS
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIAN_ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Tymchuk: #Russia reactivated an airbase on #Ukraine's border & in the last 24h at least 20 planes carrying Russian troops/arms landed there

BREAKING:
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIA|N ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …
pic.twitter.com/0zlhtb0GAA

BREAKING Fresh #Russian army column in #Ukraine heading for #Donetsk on Nov11. 36 KamAZ trucks, 8 GRAD units,7 D-30s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Enemy is most active at #Debaltseve, #Luhansk, #Donetsk dir. #Russia keeps reinforcing attack groups - Tymchuk
pic.twitter.com/LEBz15c1qE

Large military convoy driving to #Donetsk as we follow Dutch experts out of city to #MH17 crash site

VIDEO #Russia daily invasion convoy H21 Motorway #Donetsk 36 KAMAZ Trucks,8 GRAD,etc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY&feature=youtu.be … #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/T8na8AFJQO

Russia-sponsored separatists in #Novoazovsk, #Donetsk region has got the SA-22 Greyhound missile launcher - military expert Tymchuk.

Other vehicles that also came in with #Russia invasion convoy #Donetsk #Ukraine-troops in bus,poss GRU intel vehicles
pic.twitter.com/6QuvgDuQnr

#Russia invasion convoy to #Donetsk packed with ammo & a possible portable mortuary -meaning offensive war #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/DQ9HqrihVO

Staying silent on Russian military involvement inside eastern Ukraine in exchange for Russian support with Iran---does the Us really think Russia has US interests at heart?

Is the US about to receive another slap in the face? | Iran, Russia sign deal for two new nuclear reactors |

http://ara.tv/y6a99

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 11:43 AM
First mentioning of this:

VIDEO #Israel army experts training #Mariupol defense groups in Guerrilla warfare

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FA5QbKR4d04&list=UUXoJ8kY9zpLBEz-8saaT3ew … #Ukraine

pic.twitter.com/2xINbm4Qnx

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 02:37 PM
Today seems to be the "day of strange events" in the Ukraine.

1. Russia complaining that the OSCE is not paying as much attention to the Ukrainian Army regrouping as they do towards all the Russian convoys driving towards and from Donetsk.

2. and then this from Russia's Interfax today;

11/11 17:15 Blast goes off near Russian ship in neural waters of Sea of Azov (Part 2)

Notice the emphasis is "neutral waters"---Ukrainians state the ship is literally parked off the Mariupol harbor.

Then this from the Ukrainian side:

#Ukrainian border patrol ship reported abt a significant underwater explosion in #Azov sea.
https://twitter.com/lukakunagilaku/status/532176750076497920 …
pic.twitter.com/KcE2rOwiwi

The underwater explosion was so strong glasses in cities of #Primorks & #Zhovtnevyi district shattered. Happened in neutral waters.

Even stranger now:

Explosion heard in #Mariupol was a #Russia|n cargo ship, happened in neutral waters, reason still unknown
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/406607

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 02:50 PM
After the massive amount of deployed Russian troops, trucks, and heavy artillery and tanks into the eastern Ukraine---it an no longer be called "an incursion" but must finally be called what it is--"an invasion"---whether with "vacationing" Russian troops, "little green men", and or Russian mercenaries---it is in fact a full scale invasion force that has entered eastern Ukraine.

Exactly what the Ukrainian NSDC stated several days ago---the Russian invasion force parked right next to the Ukrainian border has now entered the Ukraine.

And the West being so fixated on the IS/Iraq/Syria seems to have missed it. So where are the NATO/EU/US responses to the large Russian buildup that even now the OSCE and journalists are seeing almost daily for the last 72-100 hours?

Are we now in effect "at war" and the West is still looking to find out what is "moving" in eastern Ukraine? With the sheer amount of ISR assets in that area---the West is not "blind" so what are they afraid to release to the western media?

Military mobilization east of Donetsk is so big that the small OSCE & a bunch of journos not looking for it saw it
http://bit.ly/1GLC3BP

OSCE observes "43 unmarked green military trucks" moving towards Donetsk http://www.osce.org/node/126556

Ukraine Live: Shelling Resumes In Donetsk As More Russian Military Hardware Moves West
http://bit.ly/1GLC3BP

EVEN the OSCE is now seeing the long convoys and expressing concern over them.

Approximately 250 Kamaz trucks have entered just in the last 72-100 hours not counting the RF "alleged" humanitarian aid trucks which also brought in heavy supplies.

Humanitarian aid has arrived in Donetsk.
pic.twitter.com/fAEcTftR1u

#Donetsk. Nov 11. Before the night fall. Next #Russian army column has arrived to #Ukraine. Nobody cares, even #OSCE.
pic.twitter.com/s4kAqkvjLI

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 03:18 PM
An article on the potential Russian goals inside eastern Ukraine--tend to fully agree with the two tactical targets the Russians are looking at taking before it get's to deep into winter.

Well worth the read.

rferl.org/content/news-analysis-east-ukraine-fighting-resurgence/26685705.html …

By Robert Coalson

November 11, 2014

Fighting in eastern Ukraine -- and particularly around the city of Donetsk -- has flared up again, more intensely than anything since the shaky cease-fire was agreed in Minsk on September 5.

Journalists and other observers on November 7 reported seeing dozens of military vehicles, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, entering separatist-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine from Russia. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) confirmed the sightings the following day.

Numerous videos of the convoy have appeared online.

Moscow has denied Russia is involved in the fighting and has called for all parties to observe the Minsk agreement. The separatists claim that the convoys are merely reinforcements being moved toward Donetsk from other parts of the breakaway region.

Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov, however, told the Daily Beast that Moscow is providing "multilayered support" to the separatist movement.

What is the cause of the renewed military activity in eastern Ukraine?

Here are a few possibilities:

'Election' Reaction

On November 2, the separatist authorities in eastern Ukraine held disputed elections that Kyiv, the OSCE, the EU, and the United States said were illegitimate and a violation of the Minsk agreement. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said the voting "torpedoed" the Minsk process.

In response, Poroshenko sent additional troops to the region and asked parliament to repeal a law on autonomy for the breakaway regions that was passed as part of the Minsk process.

"I think the recent transfer of equipment [from Russia to the separatists] is primarily defensive at this stage," said Tom Frear, a researcher at the European Leadership Network (ELN), in a written interview. "The rhetoric coming out of Kyiv following the elections in the Donbass and the revocation of the autonomy agreement means that Russia and the Donbas leadership can't rule out a renewed Ukrainian offensive."

Tactical Considerations

The influx of equipment to the separatists could also signal a desire to solidify their positions and make some small local gains that could make it easier to get through the winter.

The separatists may be seeking control of specific objects, such as a power plant to the north of Luhansk and Donetsk airport, Frear says. Such moves, he says, are "aimed at securing economic assets that make the long-term survival of the Luhansk People's Republic [LNR] and the Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] more plausible."

Russian analyst Markov also told the Daily Beast that the separatists are seeking to take control over "Piski, Avdiivka, and Schastye, a town with a central heating station." In addition, he speculated they might want to recapture Slovyansk and Kramotorsk, which are "symbolically and strategically important towns for them."

Building A Land Bridge

More dramatically, Moscow may be intent on adding territory to the separatist region that would give Russia a land bridge across eastern Ukraine to the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in March.

The region is currently accessible to Russia only by air and across the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Such a land bridge would make it much easier for Moscow to supply Crimea.

Ivan Lozowy, an independent policy analyst based in Kyiv, says establishing this land bridge is Putin's "unfinished business in eastern Ukraine" and "a priority" for him.

It would, however, have to include the key city of Mariupol, which would be a difficult objective to capture.

Mariupol "is pretty much dead set against letting the Russian troops through," Lozowy says. "The local residents have even been helping to build fortifications."

And What About Kharkiv?

The so-called Novorossia project has foundered in recent months, and could be strengthened if the separatists were able to get control of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.

Lozowy notes that the city has "symbolic significance," as well as being a major industrial center.

In December 1917, Kharkiv was the first Ukrainian city to recognize the Bolshevik coup in Russia, and the city served as Ukraine's capital until 1935. Ukraine's largest tank producer is located in the region, among many other military-industrial enterprises.

"Undoubtedly, Kharkiv, which has remained on the whole indifferent to calls to join 'Novorossia,' really upsets certain circles both in Moscow and in the LNR and DNR," Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts told openrussia.org on November 10.

Lozowy says achieving the two goals of establishing a land bridge to Crimea and incorporating Kharkiv into the separatist territory would "bring Putin and the Kremlin very close to their original goal of building -- or carving out, rather -- a 'Novorossia' from Ukrainian territory."

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 03:25 PM
After a heavy Ukrainian artillery strike today near Donetsk this Russian Army unit hidden as a mercenary fighter BN ceased to exist.

News coming w artillery fire was eliminated battalion Vityaz consisting mainly of the disguised #Russian army 15th battalion, unit #90600.

Just how many more Russian "killed vacationers" will it take for the Russian population to "wake up"--although polling from this week indicates they already know the fighting is causing a drop in their economy and an increase in food prices.

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 03:29 PM
Appears now the US has awaken to the massive Russian buildup of the last 72 hours.

More sanctions unlikely to work w #Russia. instead, lethal aid for #Ukraine, NATO force increase, energy initiative.
http://politi.co/1pLrBoT

NATO Commander 'Concerned' By Armored Convoys Crossing Into Ukraine From
#Russia
http://tmt-go.ru/510960 #news

Finally the words "lethal aid" are on the table---should have been there six months ago but for some reason "soft power rules the White House".

Maybe now they realize Putin is aiming to rock the NATO alliance by focusing next on the Baltics---remember his Crimea Duma speech--I have the right to defend Russian speaking populations anywhere in the world---"Putin Doctrine".

Russian warship in Latvian waters, large Russian population in LV - Next after UA -
http://ow.ly/E6Q7z

NBS @Latvijas_armija

Armed Forces on 10 NOV in LVA EEZ near territ. waters spotted RU Navy's Tarantul-class ship R-2.

kaur
11-11-2014, 04:29 PM
Outlaw, hold on your horses with Latvia.

Since this September, Portugal has been the Baltic Air Policing (BAP) lead nation with four F-16’s at Šiauliai airbase, Lithuania. The Royal Canadian Air Force have four CF-188 there as well to further augment the NATO mission. In addition, Germany and the Netherlands have augmented the mission flying Eurofighters out of Ämari, Estonia, and F-16’s out of Malbork, Poland, respectively.

http://www.aco.nato.int/nato-alliance-continues-247-baltic-air-policing-rotation.aspx

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 07:23 PM
Outlaw, hold on your horses with Latvia.

Since this September, Portugal has been the Baltic Air Policing (BAP) lead nation with four F-16’s at Šiauliai airbase, Lithuania. The Royal Canadian Air Force have four CF-188 there as well to further augment the NATO mission. In addition, Germany and the Netherlands have augmented the mission flying Eurofighters out of Ämari, Estonia, and F-16’s out of Malbork, Poland, respectively.

http://www.aco.nato.int/nato-alliance-continues-247-baltic-air-policing-rotation.aspx

kaur---BUT yesterday there was a not to subtle comment by a Russian advisor close to Putin "complaining" about the treatment of "Russians in Latvia".

Latvia has the largest Russian speaking population in the Baltics.

AND more:

Russia launches secession campaign in Eastern Latvia similar to Eastern Ukraine
http://www.unian.info/politics/1007873-activists-in-eastern-latvia-campaigning-to-join-russia.html …

And so it begins. Pro Russia activists in Latvia campaigning to join Russia, mayor of Kraslava says
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/35774/#.VGJjl2pZRbB.twitter …

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 07:30 PM
Can anyone tell me if the US civilian and military leadership is in and or out of touch with Ukrainian events.

This was actually reported by a leading Ukrainian former LtCOL and pinpointed where the tactical nuke missiles where stationed and numbers of them four days ago.

And now NATO just "wakes up"?

#Russia moved forces capable of delivering nuclear weapons to annexed #Crimea - #NATO commander Breedlove

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/11/11/uk-ukraine-crisis-nato-idUKKCN0IV1IK20141111

AND can anyone tell me if it is now more important to address the Russian moves in central Europe OR chase a bunch of black flag waving Islamists stuck inside Iraq and Syria who do not have tactical nuclear missiles?

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 08:03 PM
Even the Russian State media cannot get their own OPSEC in order.

The Russian media report proves that in fact Russian troops and equipment are in fact now in eastern Ukraine---wonder what he will now say.

Russian state TV accidentally documents regular Russian army units from Ryazan on the move in #Donetsk #Ukraine: https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/532246373757120512/photo/1

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 08:13 PM
Today seems to be the "day of strange events" in the Ukraine.

1. Russia complaining that the OSCE is not paying as much attention to the Ukrainian Army regrouping as they do towards all the Russian convoys driving towards and from Donetsk.

2. and then this from Russia's Interfax today;

11/11 17:15 Blast goes off near Russian ship in neural waters of Sea of Azov (Part 2)

Notice the emphasis is "neutral waters"---Ukrainians state the ship is literally parked off the Mariupol harbor.

Then this from the Ukrainian side:

#Ukrainian border patrol ship reported abt a significant underwater explosion in #Azov sea.
https://twitter.com/lukakunagilaku/status/532176750076497920 …
pic.twitter.com/KcE2rOwiwi

The underwater explosion was so strong glasses in cities of #Primorks & #Zhovtnevyi district shattered. Happened in neutral waters.

Even stranger now:

Explosion heard in #Mariupol was a #Russia|n cargo ship, happened in neutral waters, reason still unknown
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/406607


#BreakingReport Intense blast 17-20 miles off #Mariupol was possibly mine or submarine.
http://www.unn.com.ua/uk/news/1405468-dps-u-rayoni-de-stavsya-pidvodniy-vibukh-ukrayinskikh-korabliv-ne-bulo …

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 08:28 PM
First reporting of Russian Naval Infantry being stationed right next to the Ukrainian border.

#Russia Secretly Deploys Unit of the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade to #Ukraine Border.
http://bit.ly/149SFV2

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 08:39 PM
Russia is in full "invasion" mode and the West says nothing---notice the silence from the US civilian leadership.

Notice all they do is "urge"--but nothing stronger than "urge"---"urge" has never stopped a shooting war.
U.S. Urges Russia To 'Stop Fueling The Fire' In Ukraine
http://bit.ly/1uhUskA
pic.twitter.com/BVsrTJq803

Even after 40 confirmed serious security/air space breaches by Russian aircraft and one near miss of a civilian passenger jet yet still no response from the US civilian leadership.

There are some in Europe openly accusing the US of remaining silent as they feel Russia is nudging the Iranians to a compromise and do not want to endanger that---so the silence on the Ukraine is proof of that.

Might in fact be true but the current Iranian Supreme religious leader Khamenei with his tirade against the Israeli's last week might have been the signal Iran is not going to compromise.

Khamenei's tweets to annihilate Israel were cause to break off the nuclear negotiations & announce a reconsideration of Iran policy.

Now back to the Russian non "invasion invasion".

#BREAKINGNEWS
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIAN_ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Tymchuk: #Russia reactivated an airbase on #Ukraine's border & in the last 24h at least 20 planes carrying Russian troops/arms landed there

BREAKING:
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIA|N ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …
pic.twitter.com/0zlhtb0GAA

BREAKING Fresh #Russian army column in #Ukraine heading for #Donetsk on Nov11. 36 KamAZ trucks, 8 GRAD units,7 D-30s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Enemy is most active at #Debaltseve, #Luhansk, #Donetsk dir. #Russia keeps reinforcing attack groups - Tymchuk
pic.twitter.com/LEBz15c1qE

Large military convoy driving to #Donetsk as we follow Dutch experts out of city to #MH17 crash site

VIDEO #Russia daily invasion convoy H21 Motorway #Donetsk 36 KAMAZ Trucks,8 GRAD,etc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY&feature=youtu.be … #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/T8na8AFJQO

Russia-sponsored separatists in #Novoazovsk, #Donetsk region has got the SA-22 Greyhound missile launcher - military expert Tymchuk.

Other vehicles that also came in with #Russia invasion convoy #Donetsk #Ukraine-troops in bus,poss GRU intel vehicles
pic.twitter.com/6QuvgDuQnr

#Russia invasion convoy to #Donetsk packed with ammo & a possible portable mortuary -meaning offensive war #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/DQ9HqrihVO




Another convoy of about 12 military trucks with howitzers is waiting on the E entrance to #Donetsk

http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/10-november-another-convoy-of-about-a-dozen-military-trucks …

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 08:46 PM
So when does the US civilian leadership finally change their misspoken word "incursion" and change it to "invasion"?

Seems to prove that "soft power without military power" is nothing more than words when an aggressor is not on the same wave length.

#UNSC to hold emergency session on #Ukraine Wednesday as its ambo warns of full scale invasion by #Russia

Again had lethal aid been approved and supplied we would not be at the UNSC tomorrow.

While we will be having 3200 "non boots on the ground" in Iraq the Ukraine has stated they will fight their own fight they just help in countering over now approximately 300 tanks and over 5000 Russian troops.

They are not asking for a single pair of US boots on the ground---just weapons to help restore the sovereignty of their country that the US stated they would assist in the Budapest Memorandum.

kaur
11-11-2014, 08:57 PM
Outlaw, thanks for the links! All the info about "threat" is this. Should we worry?


The chairman of the council of Ludza District Alina Gendele (Latgale Party) said that the situation in the town and region is calm, apart from the activities of few elderly people in the former Linderman’s party.

About Linderman.


A leader of the Latvian branch of the NBP since 2002, Linderman is also a member of the Central Committee of the National Bolshevik Party. In 2003 Vladimir Linderman was arrested and imprisoned in Russia. In 2007 he was one of the organizers of the Dissenters March. Linderman was deported from Russia to Latvia in 2008. He was accused of storing explosives and of calling for the overthrow of the political system. In 2008, Linderman was for several months held in a temporary detention facility in Riga, though he has been found innocent by Latvian courts. In 2009, Linderman became the founder and leader of the Latvian political party 13th of January Movement.

http://www.15min.lt/en/article/world/minority-rights-and-national-identity-debates-on-russian-language-in-latvia-529-197316#ixzz3InRCbqRV

The longer Russia acts in Donbass, the more Russian compatriots will like this kind of "peaceful" and "golden age" future. Especially in EU. People were happy to receive sometimes higher pensions from Russia and spend the money in much more stable enivornment in the west. Today even this pension argument is failing due to rouble dynamics.

I do like this discussion about variables in Ukraine-Russia war. How many you find in Latvia?

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article/getting-bottom-sources-donbas-insurgency

Some 20 years ago RF minister said.


There may be cases when the use of direct military force will be needed to defend our compatriots abroad," Kozyrev said in April. The remark, designed for domestic consumption, provoked sharp protests from the Baltic states and concern abroad.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitemap/free/1995/6/article/andrei-kozyrev-the-fading-allure-of-mr-yes/337805.html

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 08:58 PM
More confirmed Russian units that have been heavily hit by the Ukrainian forces.

Report: @HromadskeTV Ru 439th Guards Rocket Artillery Brigade destroyed by Azov Battalion near #Mariupol @Polk_Azov

pic.twitter.com/4jkEOJqBif

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 09:04 PM
We have had a number of debates here at SWJ concerning "Russian humiliation" about NATO expansion.

This might finally put it to rest---there was never a NATO promise to not expand.

Gorbachev refutes myth that he was promised there would be no NATO expansion to the East.

http://dw.de/p/1DjVq pic.twitter.com/Pa3T74ICkQ

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 09:11 PM
Current Russian tactical movements on the ground in the areas they control inside the eastern Ukraine.

During the past 24 hours, Russian-terrorist troops fired more than 30 times onto the positions of ATO [anti-terrorism operation] forces.

Special enemy activity was observed in the Debaltseve, Luhansk and Donetsk directions – 12, 9 and 8 fire strikes each respectively.

In particular, the situation in the ATO zone remains the most intense in the areas of Debaltseve (6 attacks), Krymske (4 [artillery] bombardments), Zolote, Berezove (3 bombardments each), Chernukhyne, Donetsk Airport, Stanytsia Luhanska (2 bombardments each).

The process of “centralization” of the so-called militia “Army of New Russia” is ongoing. The process is formally led by representatives of the “DNR” and “LNR” [Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics], in reality – specialists from several departments of the General Staff of the RF and the FSB. All activities of the “centralization” are supplied not only with material-technical logistics, but also “organizationally” (including pressure, intimidation, and physical measures to “unruly” fighters), with the support of militant groups of special purpose law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation.

Further measures to strengthen Russian-terrorist forces strike groups are being implemented. In particular, in the area east of Chornukhyne (the left flank of the Debaltseve bridgehead) a new artillery group has been deployed. By Stanytsia Luhansk, the south elevation at Mykolaivka, artillery is also being pulled up. To the north of this area armored vehicles are being transferred (during the past 24 hours, the movement of up to 20 units, including tanks, has been recorded).

Tactical groups south of Donetsk continue to be strengthened. Delivery of provisions from Russia, mainly go through the settlements of Snizhne and Amvrosiivka (2-3 daily supply convoys). Between Olenivka and Telmanovo, the concentration of combat units, and the accumulation of stocks of material and technical equipment (fuel, ammunition, other resources) continues.

In the district of Novoazovsk, the enemy equips the fortified area, under cover from the air. In the direction of Mariupol, they concluded the formation of the Second Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) in north Kominternovo. The main forces of the enemy are in the depth of the second tier, small mobile groups have been moved forward, mostly made up of local militants.

Among the local fighters are rumors that in occupied Crimea large-scale mobilization activities to resupply the so-called “Army of New Russia” will be carried out by Russian command.

Notice the section highlighted concerning "unruly fighters".

Disunity and warlordization of the east Ukraine rebels. Another ridiculously good piece by @NatVasilyevaAP
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-rebels-disunited-front-run-warlords-124041693.html …

OUTLAW 09
11-11-2014, 09:41 PM
This would explain the serious lack of Us interest and aimlessness on the Ukraine--regardless of what US senior civilian leadership says in the public---based on their actions on the ground there is in effect a "deal" in place---sacrifice the Ukraine and the peace of Europe for a place in history.

From the NYTs.

The Opinion Pages | Op-Ed Columnist

The Iran-Ukraine Affair

NOV. 10, 2014

Have you heard about the Iran-Ukraine affair?

It goes like this. Vladimir Putin’s Russia makes nice over an Iran nuclear deal. It is helpful in every way. A recent headline on a piece by my colleague David Sanger read, “Role for Russia Gives Iran Talks a Possible Boost.” In return, the United States turns a blind eye to the big Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border and in areas under the control of Moscow-backed rebel separatists.

I am not suggesting there is any such formal Iran-Ukraine trade-off between the Obama administration and Putin. I am suggesting that the Russian leader has a keen eye for American weakness and an exquisite sense of timing. The abrupt flaring of new fighting in eastern Ukraine, and the abrupt Russian readiness to help on Iran ahead of the Nov. 24 deadline for nuclear talks, are not a mere coincidence. They are part of a Russian strategy and, for now, the United States is playing along.

An Iran nuclear deal would be good for the United States, Iran and the world. President Obama understands its importance, hence his recent reported letter to the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. An accord could place all Iran’s irreversible nuclear capacity in a limited and verifiable box, ensuring there is never an Iranian bomb, while ushering the last sizeable emerging market nation into the global economy. It would change the blocked politics of the Middle East, confounding America’s enemies and forcing sometimes manipulative allies to think in new and perhaps constructive ways. The deal, at this point, represents the last hope for any significant Obama legacy in the Middle East. It is clear that he wants it.

But the unspoken price of an Iran deal, vital as it is, cannot be the loss of Ukraine and the unraveling of NATO. Putin has already annexed Crimea despite Russia’s signed agreement in 1994 “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.” There is every reason to believe he has designs on all Ukraine. The West’s mistake has been to think that Putin is not serious in wishing to reconstitute the Soviet Union in new guise.

The current Russian buildup has all the signs of preparation for an offensive. Large, unmarked convoys of heavy weapons and tanks manned by personnel without insignia on their uniforms (like those who took over Crimea) have been seen rumbling toward the front lines in rebel-held territory. Sophisticated artillery and ground-to-air missile systems have been moved into position. Units all the way from the east and far north of Russia have been massed. You don’t move military units thousands of miles for nothing.

A retired NATO general who recently held talks with the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, told me that intelligence estimates are of some 45,000 regular Russian troops on the border; tens of thousands of Russian irregulars of various stripes inside Ukraine organized by a smaller number of Russian officers and military personnel; some 450 battle tanks and over 700 pieces of artillery.

“Ukraine has no real fighting capacity to face all this,” he said. “They think we’re their friends and don’t understand why we won’t help them. They are frustrated and afraid because they can see a hammer coming at them.”

All parties involved are sick and tired of confrontation and sooner or later will come to a compromise... trade-off. Ukraine for Iranian...

Some posters give Putin's aggression in Ukraine a pass on the basis that US foreign policy is hardly angelic either. While we haven't...

In response to Putin’s hammer, the West has expressed concern. The United States National Security Council spokeswoman has said, “We are very concerned.” The European Union has called the reports of convoys of heavy weapons “very worrying.” Concern and worry do not stop a hammer. Poroshenko’s requests to Obama for substantial American military assistance should not have been rejected.

Watch Putin’s actions. Be very wary of his words. That is the lesson of the past year. It has not been learned. It is nice that the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, and Secretary of State John Kerry have just agreed to exchange information on Ukraine and called for respect for a September cease-fire that is unraveling in the smoke and fire of Donetsk. It is also meaningless. Lavrov feigns the innocent on the military buildup. That’s his good-cop role.

The reality is dangerous. A quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall, as balloons go up in the German capital, a nation of 45 million people that wants to enjoy the fruits of European freedom is being abandoned to Russian dismemberment. If that happens, if Ukraine is lost, America’s promise to its NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe is not going to be viewed as credible. A core Russian strategic objective since 1945 — the decoupling of American and European defense — will be on its way to realization.

NOTE: these are the core Putin strategic goals of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

1. destroy the myth of how strong NATO is
2. decouple the US from Europe and
3. discredit the EU

I just hope the refrain inside the White House is not: “We can’t annoy the Russians on Ukraine. They’re being helpful on Iran. We won’t get a deal without them.” But I wouldn’t bet on it. An Iran-Ukraine affair is plausible.

OUTLAW 09
11-12-2014, 09:42 AM
While it is interesting to see "The Daily Beast" catching up to the information level of European/Ukrainian bloggers concerning Russian movement inside the eastern Ukraine albeit with a 72-96 hour delay on the part of Daily Beast as well as the other western media.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/11/thousands-of-putin-s-troops-now-in-ukraine-analysts-say.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

The core question remains--What is the response and or lack of response from the White House? Or more accurately stated by the New York Times---Is there in fact an "unspoken" arrangement between the US and Russia on Iran thus throwing the Ukrainians under the bus?

Second core question might be---when does "an incursion" become "an invasion"?

OUTLAW 09
11-12-2014, 03:14 PM
AP and I use to go in circles when he saw me mention "an altered state of reality" concerning Russia.

But one does have to wonder just what "altered reality they do work in" with is comment from today.

Maybe inherently lying is a way of life for the Russian elite---it was under Soviet days so I guess it was simply easier for them to continue in Russian times.

So are they really thinking they are "fooling" the US/EU and NATO?

Russia's defense ministry denies that its troops have entered Ukraine, claims that nobody in Europe believes this.
http://itar-tass.com/politika/1567911 …

NOW the NATO version:

@BBCBreaking: Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine w/ tanks, artillery, air defence systems–NATO commander
http://bbc.in/1xsE1BO

NATO says columns of Russian military equipment have entered east Ukraine; Moscow says there are "no facts". UN Sec Council to meet later.

Russia also forgets that the Ukrainians are holding 143 Russian POWs.

OUTLAW 09
11-12-2014, 03:32 PM
AP and I use to go in circles when he saw me mention "an altered state of reality" concerning Russia.

But one does have to wonder just what "altered reality they do work in" with is comment from today.

Maybe inherently lying is a way of life for the Russian elite---it was under Soviet days so I guess it was simply easier for them to continue in Russian times.

So are they really thinking they are "fooling" the US/EU and NATO?

Russia's defense ministry denies that its troops have entered Ukraine, claims that nobody in Europe believes this.
http://itar-tass.com/politika/1567911 …

NOW the NATO version:

@BBCBreaking: Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine w/ tanks, artillery, air defence systems–NATO commander
http://bbc.in/1xsE1BO

NATO says columns of Russian military equipment have entered east Ukraine; Moscow says there are "no facts". UN Sec Council to meet later.

Russia also forgets that the Ukrainians are holding 143 Russian POWs.

And the Russian Defense Ministry wants to seriously explain how a Russian mercenary mistook a Russian Mi 8 for a Ukrainian Mi 8 flying over the Donetsk.

BREAKING #Russian terrorists in #Donetsk mistaking #Russian army Mi-8 heli for #Ukraine one. 1st solid evidence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l17xf7a9Cc

Russian military must really get their net OPSEC in order.

#BREAKINGNEWS RUSSIA MOVES HIGH TECH 1L219M "Zoopark-1M SYSTEMS IN OCCUPIED DONBAS.
seen near Torez by @SHuijboom
pic.twitter.com/CU9HFSSwwk

OUTLAW 09
11-12-2014, 03:47 PM
Seems after 2 months of unsuccessful attacks on #Donetsk #airport, Rus forces decided to take the long way. #Avdeevka

#BreakingFootage
The Russian army artillery didn't stop shelling Ukrainian #Avdeevka today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ii-NAdheFAs …

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 05:46 AM
BREAKING #Russia has moved its peacekeeping forces to #Donetsk, #Ukraine concealing insignia.

https://twitter.com/belamova/status/532598114973405185 …

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 05:49 AM
Outlaw, thanks for the links! All the info about "threat" is this. Should we worry?



About Linderman.



http://www.15min.lt/en/article/world/minority-rights-and-national-identity-debates-on-russian-language-in-latvia-529-197316#ixzz3InRCbqRV

The longer Russia acts in Donbass, the more Russian compatriots will like this kind of "peaceful" and "golden age" future. Especially in EU. People were happy to receive sometimes higher pensions from Russia and spend the money in much more stable enivornment in the west. Today even this pension argument is failing due to rouble dynamics.

I do like this discussion about variables in Ukraine-Russia war. How many you find in Latvia?

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article/getting-bottom-sources-donbas-insurgency

Some 20 years ago RF minister said.



http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitemap/free/1995/6/article/andrei-kozyrev-the-fading-allure-of-mr-yes/337805.html

Until a wooden stake is driven into the heart of the Putin Doctrine---any European country with a Russian minority is at risk---even if it is a single Russian speaker.

Basically he feels he has the god given right (fascist thinking) to defend Russians wherever they reside, and if it expands the Russian Empire along the way so be it.

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 09:51 AM
kaur---AP use to get extremely agitated with the term ---Russian and Putin are in "an altered state of reality', but these statements by both the Russia UN Ambassador and the Russian NATO Ambassador seem to fit that statement.

So are they simply lying and or they telling the truth?---the facts on the ground speak volumes.

One has to wonder what they have been smoking the last few months?

#Russia in the #UN: Claims on Russian army being deployed into #Ukraine is propagandistic falsification.

#Russian ambassador to #NATO: The media storm around heightened activity of #Russian air force is propaganda of the West.

Solid evidence show the #Russian 15th MSBR is disguised as #Luhansk terrorists unit "Vityaz". https://www.facebook.com/irakli.komaxidze/posts/660793480700568 …
pic.twitter.com/oGTp37xaO8

Russia completed forming of their military detachments for actions in the rebel-held area of east #Ukraine Tymchuk.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/11/13/7044089/ …

#SBU confirms destruction of Russian missile #batallion near #Dokuchayevsk
http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/sbu_confirms_destruction_of_russian_missile_batall ion_near_dokuchayevsk_327162 …

#Russian military are laying mines in the waters of #Azov Sea near #Mariupol, 11Nov explosion could be result
http://www.unian.net/politics/10086

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 10:28 AM
At the beginning of the Crimea event and then eastern Ukraine I often stated here that the sanctions should have gone straight to sectorial levels and then straight at Putin--but some SWJ commenters felt differently. Sanctions should have as well focused on the Russian population as well in order to give them a "wake up" call on what is ongoing inside the Ukraine

They put emphasis on "negotiations" instead of confrontation---and now with the Russian peacekeeping army safely inside the eastern Ukraine.

Had the Russian economy crashed several months ago Putin would not be making the military moves he is today making.

Which way was the correct one?

Too little too late? US/EU discuss new sectoral sanctions ahead of Nov 17 foreign ministers meeting

http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2014-11-12/russia-to-fly-bombers-to-u-dot-s-dot-gulf-as-ukraine-worsens …

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 12:25 PM
VIDEO #Ukraine film crew captures #Russia terrorists mortar attack in #Avdiivka #Donetsk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o4Hzfo37hc&list=UUxCASMx9WUWPJ6cWd8kwIlQ … pic.twitter.com/pe6mP1K2Ga

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Shelling and attack continued from terrorist side, in all directions of ATO zone, 5 UA soldiers lost, 19 wounded

6 towns and villages in #Luhansk were under Russian mortar and artillery fire overnight,including #Krymske,#Shchastya and #Stanichno_Luhansk

From today Interfax:
09:25 NATO's claims of Russian armored hardware crossing Ukraine border not supported by evidence - Pankin

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 12:26 PM
Why is it that the Russian mercenaries in "New Russia" seem to act like "Nazi's"?

Left: Agitation Novorossia, 2014. Right - album cover neo-Nazi rock band "Vandal", 2007
pic.twitter.com/qFevFslG3g

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 02:19 PM
OSCE saw truck with "Gruz 200" - military code for soldiers killed in action - crossing from Ukraine to Russia
http://www.osce.org/node/126629

@OSCE_SMM Taking dead soldiers from #Ukraine to #Russial? Puzzling, RF says conflict is UA internal pic.twitter.com/yFk7urVlo9

OSCE says on Nov 11 van with sign 'Cargo 200' (military code for killed soldiers) crossed from Russia to Ukraine, then back few hours later.

More examples of “altered state of reality”
MFA spksmn: those claiming Russian troops in Ukraine are trying to "justify their actions, such as military exercises" near Russia's borders

Russian MFA spokesman calls for "sanity" from EU leaders, hopes they stop exerting "sanctions pressure" on his country

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lukashevich: We cannot help but note the increasing bias of the #OSCE Mission in covering the situation in Donbas

And no Russian troops in the Ukraine:
#Russian terrorists in #Ukraine have the latest #Russian army upgraded version Strela-10M4. pic.twitter.com/Mf3jY6xiEz

BUT then this:
Official #death_certificate, Russian families receive from MoD.
Does not include location of son's death.
pic.twitter.com/XUGXxW2mTF

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 02:47 PM
The Ukrainian SF guerrilla war is still continuing with results.

Partisans inform & send regards to #GRU General Staff of liquidating two 30 year smth operatives in #Ukraine.
pic.twitter.com/GdAHFPKBVp

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 02:59 PM
Seems more actual Russian troops "got lost" and captured by the Ukrainian Army.

Two #Russian servicemen were detained near #Donetsk airport, #Ukraine. Get lost again?
http://dlvr.it/7W0HN9

Now they are tightening up there OPSEC and moves totally new Russian artillery radar into the Donstsk.

#Report: The Russian army ordered again to abandon the use of Russian state symbols at all military units, making the identification harder.

A convoy of #Russian Mobile Artillery Radars moving towards #Donetsk Nov.12 2014 1St: SNAR-10 "Jaguar" 2d:ARK-1"Lynx" pic.twitter.com/XWCOzHul5b

OUTLAW 09
11-13-2014, 03:40 PM
Even the Russian mercenaries are now in the "altered state of reality" now.

Luhansk chief terrorist Carpentry says, the region will ask to join #Russia because #Ukraine won't pay the "LC state budget".

OUTLAW 09
11-19-2014, 02:06 PM
Now just how will the EU/NATO/US respond to this---let's see if this is actual or fake---will be extremely interesting if true.

Ukrainian official says MH17 shot down by RUSSIAN team/crew.
http://bit.ly/1voUBVy

Also see http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/08/why-russia-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html …
pic.twitter.com/MUUzSoESMx

Scoop of the year!
#Malaysia prosecutors have proof & will indict #Russia's "highest authorities" for providing men & missile to down #MH17.

Commander of #Russia Army Salyukov, an officer and 2 NCO's of the Russian Army, who fired the Buk and a bunch of #Donetsk rebel leaders.

#Putin will get off the hook for "diplomatic reasons"... #Malaysia discussing now with #Netherlands, #Australia when to go public. #MH17

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 12:49 PM
Written by a Russian who grew up in the Soviet days and made the post Soviet transition to Russia and then left Russia for the West.

Goes a long way in explaining why Putin and his inner circle are in their "altered state of reality" of a world of "lies" which they believe are in fact the "truth".

Well worth the read.

http://schumatsky.de/Russia-is-a-lie.htm

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 02:44 PM
Now just how will the EU/NATO/US respond to this---let's see if this is actual or fake---will be extremely interesting if true.

Ukrainian official says MH17 shot down by RUSSIAN team/crew.
http://bit.ly/1voUBVy

Also see http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/08/why-russia-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html …
pic.twitter.com/MUUzSoESMx

Scoop of the year!
#Malaysia prosecutors have proof & will indict #Russia's "highest authorities" for providing men & missile to down #MH17.

Commander of #Russia Army Salyukov, an officer and 2 NCO's of the Russian Army, who fired the Buk and a bunch of #Donetsk rebel leaders.

#Putin will get off the hook for "diplomatic reasons"... #Malaysia discussing now with #Netherlands, #Australia when to go public. #MH17

Now appears the "somehow and somewhere" Russia has found new information concerning the shot down of MH17---seems as if the Russians are trying to get ahead of anything that is headed their way.

Let's see the latest from the Russian government and their news agencies was a poorly done photo shopped explanation using their own "alleged radar tracks" which the Russian news agency stated that it was the Ukrainian AF and their jet which shot down MH17.

That one hour TV presentation with great fanfare was shot apart within two hours by the open source social media.

At first the Russians "claimed" it was a "captured BUK" that shot down the MH17 but that was also disproved by the open source social media very thoroughly actually.

THEN late last week a just taken local Russian video at the exact scene of the air crash surfaced in which it was geo tagged as being accurate and in the translations one of the men stated a missile had been fired and that the missile had hit the plane.


MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

#Lukashevich: We are aware of newly uncovered data related to the airplane crash and its causes, which require close scrutiny #MH17

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

#Lukashevich: We reaffirm our readiness for constructive cooperation with other countries and competent international organisations #MH17


mfa_russia: Lukashevich: We support the efforts to determine the causes of the tragedy and to bring the guilty parties to justice #MH17

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 03:25 PM
An average day in the Ukrainian crisis.

On border #Ukraine/#Russia|n division airlifted 336th Marine Brigade of Baltic Fleet. http://bit.ly/1p2Du9l #Ukraina
pic.twitter.com/MfpkDF0C8y

#Russia: #US weapon deliveries to #Ukraine would violate #Geneva Agreement

US among those who sparked conflict in #Ukraine and their arms supplies will only fuel tensions – Russian Security Council Secretary

From Interfax: 17:39 U.S. ONE OF INITIATORS OF UKRAINIAN CONFLICT, IT IF SELLS ARMS TO UKRAINE, CONFLICT WILL SPREAD - PATRUSHEV

NOTICE: the Russian SCS does not mention that is is exactly Russian heavy weapons and fighters that is fueling tensions---one has to love the Russia doublespeak.

Sweden to the OSCE @SwedeninATOSCE
EU deeply regrets that Russia again has objected to meaningful expansion of the @OSCE OSCE observation mission on Russian-Ukrainian border

NOTICE: Russian FM continues to throw at the Ukrainians they need to adhere to the Minsk agreements which Russia signed and has not implemented a single point of the agreements.

Great article on exactly just how Russia “lies”
http://schumatsky.de/Russia-is-a-lie.htm …
pic.twitter.com/MNsGiCOD2S

Putin: "Colour revolutions" wrought by extremists working f foreign geopolitical interests must be prevented i Russia
http://www.interfax.ru/408400

#Russia suddenly dialling up to 11 the hysteria over #NATO expansion (a decade or more ago). Making it sound like cause of all problems.

Strelkov says Russian soldiers led the decisive counter-attack against Ukraine, but had orders not to take Mariupol.
http://zavtra.ru/content/view/kto-tyi-strelok/ …

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 03:50 PM
If the interviewee ie Girkin is correct then the West is asking Putin the wrong question---instead of are there Russian military inside the Ukraine we should be asking when did the Russian Security Service FSB/KGB enter the Ukraine with their own troops?

http://www.unian.info/politics/1011888-girkin-says-he-and-his-special-ops-team-started-conflict-in-donbas.html

Girkin says he and his special ops team started conflict in Donbas

20.11.2014 | 17:15

Igor Girkin, the one-time “defense minister” of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, has said that he and his squad of Russian special services soldiers started the war in east Ukraine.

He made the claim in an interview with the Russian right-wing newspaper Zavtra.

"I was me who pulled the trigger of war,” Girkin said.

“If our squad had not crossed the border, everything would have come to an end, like in Kharkiv, like in Odesa,” Girkin said, referring to failed attempts earlier in the year to overthrow the local authorities in these cities.

“There would have been a few dozen killed, burnt, arrested - and that would have been it. But this flywheel war, which is still going on, was started by our group," he said.

He also said that he was not from the military, but from the "secret services," and confirmed that Russian regular army units are involved in the war.

Earlier Girkin said that in the beginning of April, he had crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border with a group of 52 people. The seizure of Ukrainian local government buildings, police stations and security service offices by “separatists” in eastern Ukraine started in mid April this year.

According to the UN, more than four thousand people have been killed in the fighting that has erupted in eastern Ukraine. The organization has also said that the actual number of victims of the war could be much higher.

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 03:58 PM
Reference a mercenary "false flag" attack on the OSCE today.

FULL #OSCE REPORT: "One of the soldiers stood up and fired two shots in the direction of the OSCE convoy"
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126926 …

NSDC: The vehicle pointed at by #OSCE was marked with outdated #Ukraine insignia not used at the moment

NSDC: Terrorists used a vehicle marked with #Ukraine army insignia to fire at #OSCE mission

BREAKING: Attack at OSCE rep. was a provocation, Ukr mil. move in ATO zone only in columns, never on single vehicle as attackers-col Lysenko

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 04:21 PM
Russia keeps repeating over and over that NATO violated" an agreement to not expand"---this statement which is at the core of the "so called Russian humiliation" has been repeatedly called into question as not being a correct reflection of what actually happened.

Even Gorbi stated during the recent Berlin Wall events that there was never such a NATO agreement.

Seems the Russian leadership just cannot get their historical facts correct.

But Mr Peskov countered by accusing Nato of breaking a historic promise by gradually approaching Russia's borders.

He said the alliance was "attempt[ing] to break the... balance of power".

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 04:50 PM
Seems Russia is having a hard time getting their own mercenaries under control:

BREAKINGNEWS THE #DNR REGIME IMPRISONED CHIEF TERRORIST #GIVI FOR FURTHER ATTACKING #DONETSK #AIRPORT.
His men even fought other DNR troops

Firn
11-20-2014, 06:32 PM
At the beginning of the Crimea event and then eastern Ukraine I often stated here that the sanctions should have gone straight to sectorial levels and then straight at Putin--but some SWJ commenters felt differently. Sanctions should have as well focused on the Russian population as well in order to give them a "wake up" call on what is ongoing inside the Ukraine

They put emphasis on "negotiations" instead of confrontation---and now with the Russian peacekeeping army safely inside the eastern Ukraine.

Had the Russian economy crashed several months ago Putin would not be making the military moves he is today making.

Which way was the correct one?


As somebody which has advocated early quick and harsh sanctions against Russia I think it is honest to say that we don't know how those might have worked out. I tend to think better at that critical juncture of Ukrainian, Russian and European history but it is unknowable.

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 07:24 PM
As somebody which has advocated early quick and harsh sanctions against Russia I think it is honest to say that we don't know how those might have worked out. I tend to think better at that critical juncture of Ukrainian, Russian and European history but it is unknowable.

firn---it is interesting that if the EU had gone straight to the sectorial sanctions the ruble would have started it's fall far early---the fall is still not over as the forex hedge fund guys are waiting to see where the CB is going to go before they start their push again--the falling ruble and the selected freezing of the banks and their owners have hit in fact Putin's inner circle.

IMO the next round should actually go after the personal slush fund that Putin has built ie 40B USD---not bad for a former KGB officer in 1989 who came back to the SU with virtually no savings.

That has gotten Putin's attention---oil has also slowed a tad but it is at 78 and looking to go to 75 and then will hold before falling to 70 where OPEX is willing to see it stabilize at. The Russian 2015 budget was originally built around 115 which is what everyone was looking at in 2014.

IMO Putin is not sure where exactly to go now as the clans around him are in turmoil among themselves---some pushing for a direct invasion others saying the time is not right.

Check the series of Putin comments over the last 12 hours---they enter around stopping the "color revolts" from hitting Russia---that is really what this is all about to begin with and secondly really look at his suggestions in 2010 of a combined Russia/EU free trade zone he proposed and the EU tended to ignore. He envisioned that free trade zone basically under Russia influence both politically and militarily and the US would have been left out in the cold.

He has a deep fear of the TTIP discussions between the US and the EU as Russia and the EEU will be cut out of that free trade zone.

Taken from his comments---check this comment and then as yourself is it not the Putin Doctrine exactly what he is accusing the West/color revolts of?

#Putin: In today's world the extremism is used as a tool for redrawing geopolitical & sphere of influences.

What is interesting is that the Russian propaganda has been so effective in the Donbas in convincing the Russian speakers that the Ukrainian government had not been supporting the Donbas when in fact in 2012/2013 they received almost 20 times back in funds from the government than they paid into the government--not bad.

Initial estimates are saying Russia is being forced to cover 20M USD per day of fighting in the Ukraine---the question is how long will he be able to continue that load on top of supporting the Crimea?

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 07:44 PM
I also wrote a number of times that the Russians have been in violation on a number of treaties and agreements;

1. INF violation
2. Budapest Memo
3. Helsinki Agreements
4. and they failed to destroy a large amount of armored assets (under OSCE agreements they signed) that are now currently in the Ukraine
5. also in violation of the Russia/NATO Basic Agreements

AND this confirms the Russians were and are in violation of the OSCE disarmament agreements they themselves signed.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: CFE treaty "is 'dead' for us, and we are not returning to it"
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20141119/1014919548.html …

Politics
15:28 19.11.2014(updated 18:02 19.11.2014)

137680
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia has suspended the implementation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

MOSCOW, November 19 (Sputnik) — Russia has suspended the implementation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), considering it "dead," and will not return to it, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday.

"We have stopped the implementation [of the CFE Treaty], and it is 'dead' for us, and we are not returning to it," Lavrov said during a government meeting in the lower house of parliament.

"The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe does not work for us. After the Warsaw Pact had been dissolved and the old [version of the] Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe had been adapted to the situation when there was no Warsaw Pact anymore, we ratified it in its adapted version, while NATO refused to do it. We waited for several years, as you know, and said, 'Sorry, then.' We do not consider the old CFE Treaty something obligatory for us, so we suspended our observance of the treaty in accordance with the stipulated provisions," the minister said.

The original CFE Treaty was signed in 1990 by 16 NATO and six Warsaw Pact members setting equal limits for each bloc on five key categories of conventional armaments and military hardware, including tanks, combat armored vehicles, artillery, assault helicopters and combat aircraft.

An “adapted” version of the CFE treaty was signed in 1999, but NATO members refused to ratify it until Russia withdrew troops from Georgia and the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdnestria, a criterion Russia regards as an “artificial linkage.” In December 2007, Russia imposed a unilateral moratorium on the CFE treaty, citing it’s “irrelevance” over NATO's plans to increase its military presence in Eastern Europe and the alliance's refusal to ratify the adapted version. In November 2011, NATO member states said they would no longer exchange information on conventional weapons and troops with Russia.

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 07:51 PM
Gorbi states Putin starts to believe himself God like or near it.

Gorbachev believes Putin repeats his mistakes because he begins to consider himself God - Unian
http://www.unian.net/world/1011994

You know the situation is bad when Gorbachev says that you need to leave:

OUTLAW 09
11-20-2014, 08:11 PM
The constant threats by Putin and the Russian leadership about the use of tactical nuclear weapons is not simply for show and it is serious--it is about time the US civilian leadership fully understand the finger on the nuclear button by Putin is serious and he will use it as he perceives the West to be weak and unwilling to stand in his way.

Just another comment from the Russian peanut gallery that supports use of nuclear weapons against the West.

Top Russian pundits: #Russia should privately threaten the West w/ a nuclear strike in response to economic sanctions
http://youtu.be/WOnGtgJmOhs

Appears that the Russian clans are getting concerned about their potential economic demise.