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WGEwald
07-30-2014, 09:50 PM
Moderators Note

On reflection I have:


Closed the existing main Ukraine (catch all) thread (1991 replies and 99k views) and that on the shooting down of MH17 over the Ukraine
(http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=20951)
Create two threads for current matters
First the fighting and military aspects -
Secondly the wider non-military context (diplomacy, politicis, economics etc), so includes MH17 matters - this thread
The Russian Info Ops thread is now in the Europe arena (ends)






http://amsat-uk.org/2014/07/29/delfi-n3xt-engineer-died-on-mh-17-over-ukraine/

OUTLAW 09
07-31-2014, 08:36 AM
At last count there are 16 different Russian media stories about the shot down and none have grabbed the global media longer than 2 minutes.

Now they are lancing faked satellite photos trying to still link Ukrainian Buk missiles to the shot down and they cannot even get the photos close to correct.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/30/russia-fakes-mh17-crash-site-satellite-images-says-sbu/

There appears to be a second mercenary Buk on the ground in eastern Ukraine---as a Ukrainian fighter mission claims yesterday to have detected and evaded a fired Buk missile.

davidbfpo
08-04-2014, 08:12 PM
Moderators Note

On reflection I have:


Closed the existing main Ukraine (catch all) thread (1991 replies and 99k views) and that on the shooting down of MH17 over the Ukraine
(http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=20951)
Create two threads for current matters
First the fighting and military aspects -
Secondly the wider non-military context (diplomacy, politicis, economics etc), so includes MH17 matters - this thread
The Russian Info Ops thread is now in the Europe arena (ends)

kaur
08-07-2014, 10:25 AM
Some statistics concerning regionalism and decentralisation before and and after the start of war.

http://mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/182514/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/a8b46a12-9989-4d80-830b-7e4621579bfa/en/The+politics+of+regionalism+and+decentralisation+i n+Ukrain.pdf

davidbfpo
08-07-2014, 12:08 PM
Just caught part of the BBC Radio Four programme 'Crossing Continents' and this report by Lucy Ash 'Crimea: Paradise Regained'. It will be a podcast soon and I assume available beyond the UK:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04b22h3


Europe and the US have imposed the toughest sanctions on Russia since the Cold War amid anger over the Kremlin's support for east Ukrainian separatists who stand accused of shooting down a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet. But the crisis began further south with Russia's annexation of Crimea in March.


Crimea's idyllic scenery drew Soviet visitors for years - some called it the Communist Cote d'Azur. The collapse of communism did little to dent Russia's appetite for their bit of paradise on the Black Sea along with the thousands of Ukrainian holidaymakers who flocked there each year. But now the Ukrainians are staying away and the Russian government is trying to fill the gap by urging employers in Russia to send staff on subsidised breaks in Crimea. A holiday in the newly annexed peninsula has become every Russian's patriotic duty. For Crossing Continents, Lucy Ash visits Crimean tourist resorts and explores the motives behind Vladimir Putin's fateful decision to reclaim Russia's paradise.

I am sure her last few seconds referred to a plan / suggestion that Sevastapol revert to being a 'closed city' to Westerners and Russians.

mirhond
08-08-2014, 01:53 PM
At this point, this is probably the most realistic outcome with the highest possibility of restoring stability in the region. Kiev needs to find a way to reintegrate the opposition into the political process - that will isolate the radicals and undermine Russian justifications for intervention. What does Ukraine's political landscape look like if it exterminates the armed opposition?


It won't happen. Separatists are quite well dehumanized in Ukrainian political agenda and there won't be any agreements with non-humans.

JMA
08-08-2014, 04:16 PM
It won't happen. Separatists are quite well dehumanized in Ukrainian political agenda and there won't be any agreements with non-humans.

Mirhond, postings by people like Dayhuan and American Pride are annoying but do serve a purpose in that they express just how dangerously naive the Amercan civilian thought process is which (tragically) has dominance in the US Whitehouse and Department of State.

AmericanPride
08-08-2014, 05:33 PM
Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141840/vladislav-inozemtsev-and-anton-barbashin/a-grand-bargain-with-russia):


The first and most radical option would be to dissolve NATO -- a possibility that is overdue for serious consideration -- and replace it with a new security bloc. The new group, which might be called the Global Northern Alliance, would bring together all current NATO states, Russia and the members of its Collective Security Treaty Organization, and Japan and South Korea. The bloc would be led by today’s three major military powers: the United States, Russia, and the European Union. Its main task would be to preserve and reinforce peace on the European continent and in the northern hemisphere more broadly.


A second, and no less audacious, initiative would be the launch of a new Marshall Plan for countries of the former USSR. The assistance would go not just to Ukraine -- the post-Soviet state most on Western policymakers’ minds -- but also to other countries in the region.


Third, if Russia begins to abandon its aggressive policies, the West could start to improve relations with the most critical players of all: Russian citizens and companies. This could include reducing the existing visa barriers between Russia and the EU and, in the longer term, lessening the restrictions on working abroad. The United States and Europe should also initiate talks on liberalizing trade with Russia and post-Soviet countries and banning discrimination against investors from the region. By becoming a more fully integrated member of the Western system, Russia would be less able to threaten the West through energy disturbances and expansionist behavior. This basic truth seemed evident a quarter-century ago, during Gorbachev’s perestroika, but has now become forgotten -- and quite unfairly so.


Fourth, taking into account the many dangerous fault lines in Europe, the West could radically shift the focus of its cooperation with Russia to the Pacific.

mirhond
08-08-2014, 05:33 PM
Mirhond, postings by people like Dayhuan and American Pride are annoying but do serve a purpose in that they express just how dangerously naive the Amercan civilian thought process is which (tragically) has dominance in the US Whitehouse and Department of State.

May be I completely misunderstood your post, but is sounds to me like you feel pity that Dayuhan and American Pride aren't in touch with Ukrainian political agenda and don't dehumanize separatists enough.
ps. I enjoy their posts, because they are few non-biased users here.

carl
08-08-2014, 06:21 PM
Hey Mirhond, I got a question. When the Russian troops roll west over the border, are you going to be with them or are you going to be staying in Moscow?

OUTLAW 09
08-08-2014, 07:57 PM
May be I completely misunderstood your post, but is sounds to me like you feel pity that Dayuhan and American Pride aren't in touch with Ukrainian political agenda and don't dehumanize separatists enough.
ps. I enjoy their posts, because they are few non-biased users here.

you have got to be what none biased?

come on comrade---you never did answer where those 36 bodies that your "zealous Christians" in their burial rituals took as well as their credit cards, cash, jewelry, and smart phones.

you claimed they went to Donetsk but my friend they never did not make it there.

you are not what.....biased?

kaur
08-08-2014, 09:13 PM
Jamestown has article about Fsb guy Girkin/Stelkov's last employer Malofeeyev.


Conclusion

From a purely religious perspective, the militants’ sectarianism has little in common with true Orthodox Christianity. But there is a distinct danger that the Russian Orthodox Church and even Russian authorities may be increasingly swayed by its radical nationalist ideology, the consequences of which could lead to further chaos and unrest along Russia’s borders. Consequently, proponents of this dangerous ideology such as Konstantin Malofeev—who have deep pockets and whom the Kremlin can, seemingly, count on to finance artificial militant rebellions abroad—pose a specific threat to Western policies and should not be ignored.

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42725&cHash=58def74e6315f226d043d9270402ebb5#.U-Uod2IaySM

This blog has translated interesting article.


Friday, August 8, 2014

Window on Eurasia: Patriarch Kirill, FSB Backing Different Candidates in Ukrainian Church Election

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2014/08/window-on-eurasia-patriarch-kirill-fsb.html

Speaker of DPR parliament is communist, who replaced Malofeeyevs another friend Pushilin.

http://inforesist.org/kommunisty-vzyali-vlast-v-dnr/

Orthodox church, communists, FSB, KGB, GRU etc. typical Russia's ideological mix.

Ps mirhond, have you changed your avatar already third time in a month? Do you need professional stylist :)

davidbfpo
08-08-2014, 09:38 PM
Cited in part:
Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141840/vladislav-inozemtsev-and-anton-barbashin/a-grand-bargain-with-russia): dissolve NATO, a new Marshall Plan for countries of the former USSR, the most critical players of all: Russian citizens and companies. This could include reducing the existing visa barriers between Russia and the EU and, in the longer term, lessening the restrictions on working abroad..the West could radically shift the focus of its cooperation with Russia to the Pacific.

This is neither a bargain for the West's relations with Russia or the electorates in the West. It is crazy.

Many here were critics of NATO long before the Crimea / Ukraine crisis. It makes no sense for NATO members. As for yet more money etc for the former USSR, I suspect that includes Russia itself. Do the authors not realise the electorate let alone the bankers have a very different view?

Then there's their view that the most critical players include Russian citizens. Really? We as outsiders might wish Russian citizens played a greater role in decision-making, currently they do not and may in fact support Putin's adventures. Enable Russians to work abroad. OK, in the UK and I expect other EU countries that is simply stupid - when unemployment remains a national problem. Have they heard of UKIP?

Finally what does Russia have to offer in the Pacific? Far less than it can offer in Europe and the Middle East.

JMA
08-09-2014, 12:23 AM
Good post... mirhond could not have done better himself ;)


Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141840/vladislav-inozemtsev-and-anton-barbashin/a-grand-bargain-with-russia):

carl
08-09-2014, 01:19 AM
Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141840/vladislav-inozemtsev-and-anton-barbashin/a-grand-bargain-with-russia):

Allow me to express this idea in fewer words. Disarm and give them lots of money.

Gee. Why didn't I think of that? It can't miss.

Dayuhan
08-09-2014, 02:49 AM
Mirhond, postings by people like Dayhuan and American Pride are annoying but do serve a purpose in that they express just how dangerously naive the Amercan civilian thought process is which (tragically) has dominance in the US Whitehouse and Department of State.

So what do you think should be done? Or is the prospect of actually trying to come up with a suggested course of action too annoying to contemplate?

AmericanPride
08-09-2014, 05:18 PM
Many here were critics of NATO long before the Crimea / Ukraine crisis. It makes no sense for NATO members. As for yet more money etc for the former USSR, I suspect that includes Russia itself. Do the authors not realise the electorate let alone the bankers have a very different view?

I disagree with the article's proposal about NATO also. But I do think NATO can serve as the foundation of a larger security structure beyond the north Atlantic region. The international system has two pillars - one political (the U.N.) and one security (NATO). Occasionally they work in tandem (i.e. Afghanistan) but not always. I think building more security linkages would compel states to resolve issues diplomatically and would also help relieve some of the burden on the U.S. defense apparatus.


Then there's their view that the most critical players include Russian citizens. Really? We as outsiders might wish Russian citizens played a greater role in decision-making, currently they do not and may in fact support Putin's adventures. Enable Russians to work abroad. OK, in the UK and I expect other EU countries that is simply stupid - when unemployment remains a national problem. Have they heard of UKIP?

I'm not as familiar with the sub-national level of Russian politics as I'd like to be but it seems like to me the alliances with oligarchs, the emphasis on state information campaigns, and the manipulation of political parties suggest the presence to some extent of a sensitivity towards popular sentiment. I don't see a very strong connection to the formulation of Russian foreign policy (which, by the way, according to recent research is true of the U.S. as well).


Finally what does Russia have to offer in the Pacific? Far less than it can offer in Europe and the Middle East.

This is true but is that because Russia is unable to or because Russia has been unwilling to? I think about the effect the USSR had on the Pacific (communist China, North Korea, Vietnam) etc...

davidbfpo
08-09-2014, 09:30 PM
Professor John Schindler has a long column 'Putin’s War and the Hitler Thing' and he ends with:
What will happen in Ukraine will become clear soon. In the meantime, it is wise to choose proper historical analogies that add to understanding of complex problems, rather than confusing issues further. Above all, it is imperative that educated Westerners, particularly the postmodern denizens of the WEIRD contingent (http://20committee.com/2014/04/07/putinism-and-the-anti-weird-coalition/), understand that things they cannot contemplate because they find them unpalatable or even ridiculous may seem quite plausible to others. What you find utterly unthinkable may prove quite thinkable, even reasonable, to your enemies.

Link:http://20committee.com/2014/08/09/putins-war-and-the-hitler-thing/

mirhond
08-11-2014, 11:39 AM
По последним данным российских властей, всего с начала конфликта вынужденно покинули территорию Украины и находятся на территории РФ более 730 тысяч граждан. Ранее сообщалось, что более 48 тысяч из них оформляют документы на получение убежища.

According to Russian authorities data, there are 730,000 Ukrainian refugees in Russia, over 48,000 officially seek refuge.

http://ria.ru/society/20140808/1019248416.html

OUTLAW 09
08-11-2014, 12:44 PM
According to Russian authorities data, there are 730,000 Ukrainian refugees in Russia, over 48,000 officially seek refuge.

http://ria.ru/society/20140808/1019248416.html

mirhond who admitted he is residing and blogging from Russia----

you have got to be kidding using numbers from RIA---the mouth piece for the Communist Party and Putin--you really want us to believe the numbers.

you should actually contact the UNHRC and ask for their numbers which are totally different than your numbers---was it not also the UNHR that indicated that the Russian charges of human rights violations inside eastern Ukraine did not quite match those complaints being expounded by both RIA/Interfax and your boss Putin?

come on comrade at least get your source of numbers correct---but wait you cannot as you sit in Moscow working for the FSB and they will not allow to write anything else---right mirhond?

OUTLAW 09
08-11-2014, 12:47 PM
May be I completely misunderstood your post, but is sounds to me like you feel pity that Dayuhan and American Pride aren't in touch with Ukrainian political agenda and don't dehumanize separatists enough.
ps. I enjoy their posts, because they are few non-biased users here.

comrade mirhond---as someone who has openly admitted you work in Moscow ---you have no biase..? if you are not biased then I have a Crimean Casino to sell you on a great beach front property.

OUTLAW 09
08-11-2014, 12:53 PM
It won't happen. Separatists are quite well dehumanized in Ukrainian political agenda and there won't be any agreements with non-humans.

comrade mirhond--you yourself did a great job at dehumanizing the mercenaries when you yourself called them "zealous Christians with burial rituals" that evidently meant looting the bodies for cash, credit cars, jewelry, smart phones and cosmetics. I cannot believe you defended them---must have been partying to much the night before right comrade?

you still have not told us where those 36 bodies the Cossacks tossed onto the back of a truck went---you claimed did you not they were going to Donetsk ---they never seemed to make it there comrade.

but again it is the same Cossacks who got badly beaten by the Ukrainian National Guard a few days ago---well so much for the great myths around their fighting abilities right comrade?

they once boasted just how great they were as fighters and how they were going to defeat the junta and fascists was it not that was in a YouTube video---may how times flies comrade.

hey by the way have not seen the Cossack leader who had the big red beard---maybe you can check with the FSB there in Moscow to see if he is still alive?

OUTLAW 09
08-11-2014, 01:07 PM
comrade mirhond---since you use RIA---thought you might like to see an article from RIA that indicates that the S300s that the Russian military sold to Syria due to the sanctions will be destroyed by the Russian military ---guess Syria will get it's money back right mirhond?

comrade I thought the sanctions were not working and a farce as you all call them in Moscow---but really destroying S300s because of the sanctions.....strange is it not comrade---either the sanctions are working or not working--it is kind of like being pregnant either one is or is not right comrade?

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140811/191908683/Russia-to-Destroy-S-300-Weapons-Systems-Meant-for-Export-to.html

OUTLAW 09
08-11-2014, 01:19 PM
Maybe we can get comrade mirhond's take on this Interfax report.

It is interesting while Putin wants to stop western food products getting to Russian consumers because "he is protecting local farmers" that never can or do produce much of what is banned.

Banana's and oranges if they do not appear into the stores will shock the Russian consumers because during the entire Soviet days banana's and oranges really rarely ever was seen in Soviet state owned food stores (the Cmmunist elite got first purchase rights though)---if so usually for Christmas and they were moldy, and had brown spots as the best often went to the GDR has they paid the Cubans a great amount of western currency for the shipments which the Soviet Union did not have enough of.

15:35 U.S. banana supplier Chiquita Brands says not threatened by Russian sanctions

wow --nice to see that Putin understands the power of what the images of no banana's and oranges in the stores carries within the Russian population.

by the way comrade non Russian expert---Putin as a KGB officer in Dresden GDR did get his banana's and oranges when Christmas came around in the GDR as the KGB had their own stores plus Putin was able to purchase things in the KaDaWe here in Berlin with western currency.

ask him--- he might just confirm it for you---

OUTLAW 09
08-11-2014, 01:30 PM
comrade mirhond---man you almost fooled us again from Moscow--with your comment on there is no problem with food supplies.

care to make a comment on this photo taken in a Metro store with empty food racks.

come on comrade you have got to get better with your responses.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/sanctions?src=hash

by the way we are still awaiting you photos from Moscow stores showing great amounts of food products.

OUTLAW 09
08-11-2014, 02:46 PM
Looks like there is a backdoor on the Russian food ban that will allow those banned foods to enter Russia---as always Russia has a backdoor.

On top of Belarus wanting to make a killing in trading with banned food items---just what did Russia assume the EEC would get them---allegiance from the members?

One has to wonder what the markup value of the banned items will be?



Kazakhstan, a member of a Russian-led Customs Union that also includes Belarus, currently has no plans to back Russia's retaliatory embargo on food imports from Western countries that have sanctioned it over its actions in Ukraine, a senior Kazakh official said.

Kazakhstan's abstention would allow banned goods to be reimported to Russia through the Central Asian country — de facto voiding the embargo — and calls into question a trade union portrayed by the Kremlin as a potential rival for the European Union.

"No talks on the matter are ongoing," the Inform.kz news site quoted Deputy Agriculture Minister Gulmira Isayeva as saying on Friday.

Neither Russia's Agriculture Ministry nor its Federal Veterinary and Phytosanitary Inspection Service, which polices food imports, requested their Kazakh colleagues to back Russia's food sanctions, she added.

At present, Kazakhstan only imposes food embargoes against countries affected by animal diseases that pose danger for the the nation's population or livestock, she said.

Last week, Moscow blacklisted food imports including dairy, meat, fruit and vegetables from the U.S., the European Union, Norway, Canada and Australia, all of which have imposed sanctions on Russia over its alleged support of the pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine. The ban has affected some $10 billion worth of food exports from the EU alone.

Russia has no customs border with Kazakhstan or Belarus, both of which are in a position to reimport banned goods to Russia in circumvention of the ban.

After years of lobbying by Moscow, the leaders of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan agreed in May to create a Eurasian Economic Union from 2015 that Russia hopes can become a counterweight to the EU. But Russia's snap food embargo was not reported to have been coordinated with either Minsk or Astana.

According to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the embargo on Thursday — the day of its announcement — with his Belarussian and Kazakh counterparts.

But the meeting produced no visible result.

Belarus said earlier that it was ready to replace certain EU imports to Russia, especially meat and dairy. But certain embargoed food products, such as shellfish, are not produced by Russia's landlocked Customs Union partners.

Nyxilis
08-11-2014, 11:06 PM
Russia's food ban was mostly to punish the weaker smaller economies of eastern europe. It will do little to the US or the UK but that's not what it was about. It was about punishing Estonia, Poland, and make some like Finland more spooked.

Finland's support is weak, they're wary of the whole conflict and hurting their economy even a few lil nudges could get them squarely against any further riling of one of their largest borders and largest trade partners.

Even though there will be some work arounds it still womps the small economies of Estonia on the short term. This is big stuff to them.

There are alternatives with countries that don't really care about the sanctions, Brazil for instance, but it will take a long time before they can switch those food supplies. Russian news has of course said it would take small amount of time but anyone who knows about trade knows that's folly.

So on the short term it punishes the smallest economies in eastern europe who are the most stalwart supporters of Ukraine and harms Putin's cronies the least. Long term? The rising food prices will take even more out of the common russian's pockets for basic staples further damaging the economy. Short term gamble, long term snafu in my opinion.

mirhond
08-11-2014, 11:42 PM
The rising food prices will take even more out of the common russian's pockets for basic staples further damaging the economy. Short term gamble, long term snafu in my opinion.

No, it will not, because the amount of basic staples which fall into sanctions scope on the shelves of the retail shops is close to zero.
Your post doesn't belong to this thead, anyway.


Among Ukrainians, 77% say Ukraine should remain united, compared with 14% who think regions should be permitted to secede if they so desire. In Ukraine’s west, which includes the central region around Kyiv (Kiev), as well as portions of the country that border Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, more than nine-in-ten (93%) think their nation should remain unified. A smaller majority (70%) in the country’s east – which includes areas along the Black Sea and the border with Russia – also prefer unity. Only in the breakaway territory of Crimea do more than half (54%) voice support for the right to secede.

source: Pew Research Center. Despite Concerns about Governance, Ukrainians Want to Remain One Country

http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/

Nyxilis
08-12-2014, 01:54 AM
No, it will not, because the amount of basic staples which fall into sanctions scope on the shelves of the retail shops is close to zero.
Your post doesn't belong to this thead, anyway.


Why not? Non military problems with Russian and Ukraine? Sounds like a place for it to me.

And that's incorrect on your statement it affects chicken which is considered a basic staple. All fishing products from shrimp, tuna, crab, and lobster. Tuna at least is pretty common on shelves in supermarkets. It affects fruits such as apples from Poland. It affects vegetables which are once again big imports from eastern europe.

I suppose you think the russian side of the embargo only includes fine cheeses from France? Well that would be incorrect. But I'd like to hear you define why basic things like fruits and veggies are not considered staples? Grains? Fish? Chicken? Beef?

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 06:17 AM
No, it will not, because the amount of basic staples which fall into sanctions scope on the shelves of the retail shops is close to zero.
Your post doesn't belong to this thead, anyway.



source: Pew Research Center. Despite Concerns about Governance, Ukrainians Want to Remain One Country

http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/

wow comrade mirhond--you seem to think you can direct what people say or not say---typical for the old communist party types of the past and the "New Russia".

he is correct it was largely targeted against the smaller former Soviet satellite countries who went on their own into both NATO and the EU.

get real comrade and not try to change the narrative.

by the way---again thanks for confirming you are in Russia and by the way those empty good shelves that you said does not exist---noticed you did not respond when photos from a Metro were posted comrade.

again we are awaiting the photos that you said you would send comrade---but wait comrade non Russian expert---you did state here in SWJ you would send us photos of those full of food shelves did you not?

well maybe you will not because you cannot because they are as empty as they were under the Soviets--come on comrade at least get your information correction when you play the info war here right comrade.

let's see 1.4B in damages to the US farm exports that total 144.6B per year---wow it really hurt the US did it not but wait it was not suppose to hurt the common Russian---was that not what Putin personally stated comrade mirhond?

but I guess with the new Russian diet of bread, vodka and potatoes one could in fact argue as you do--- the food ban will not hurt the common Russian--wow an altered state of reality these days out of Moscow do you not think or maybe just a new Russian diet fad.

but wait Putin did something the Europeans should be grateful for---he lowered the average European cost of living for food to levels not seen since 2000--all that food stopped by Moscow will come back into the European economy as lower prices---man Putin is smart right comrade---potatoes, bread and vodka for Russians ---lower food costs for Europeans---man what a plan comrade mirhond --Putin should get the top global economic prize of the year for that plan.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 06:32 AM
comrade mirhind---reference the food ban by Putin--think bananas think oranges and you will understand the food ban.

do you really think Putin does not want to stop eating both of them---besides it was the great staple products of the Soviet Union right comrade---that is until Cuba could not ship them as they went to the GDR.

impressed comrade by the Russian ponzi game of food bans

Dayuhan
08-12-2014, 12:02 PM
Looks like there is a backdoor on the Russian food ban that will allow those banned foods to enter Russia---as always Russia has a backdoor.

It's also a backdoor for the people who are supposedly being sanctioned... they don't care if they sell direct to Russia or via Belarus or Kazakhstan, as long as they sell. The consumer of course will pay more.


by the way---again thanks for confirming you are in Russia and by the way those empty good shelves that you said does not exist---noticed you did not respond when photos from a Metro were posted comrade.

If shelves are showing up empty already that would be remarkably fast... has panic buying been a factor?

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 12:21 PM
It's also a backdoor for the people who are supposedly being sanctioned... they don't care if they sell direct to Russia or via Belarus or Kazakhstan, as long as they sell. The consumer of course will pay more.



If shelves are showing up empty already that would be remarkably fast... has panic buying been a factor?

Dayuhan--food is disappearing for a number of reasons.

1. canned goods are being pulled back for illegal under the table sales which was the common business practice in Soviet days
2. there has been hording going on--especially of perishable items
3. Belarus has stopped in fact truck shipments at the Russian border of the banned items---then detoured them to Bealrus companies who then purchase them at a fraction of truck value as the shipping company needs some cash flow---then they will go back over the Belarus border as balk market
A bulk of all Russian goods that have been banned arrived via truck shipments---they will be hit as well and it effect mainly Russian tucking as the eastern Europeans would delivery mainly into Belarus and from there Russia firms would pick up the products as Russia left the TIR truck program which allowed foreign truckers a clear delivery run into Russia "claiming" TIR was taking to much money from them ---they really just wanted to control the massive extortion/bribery going on with Russian Customs and Border Security which Putin again promised would be controlled.

Belarus is coming out of this smelling like a rose.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 12:25 PM
so comrade mirhond---based on your own cut and paste comment we are assuming you now support the Ukrainians and are 300% against Putin and his mercenary army---right comrade--you do realize that your comment kind of kills the Putin idea of "New Russia"?.

Quote:
Among Ukrainians, 77% say Ukraine should remain united, compared with 14% who think regions should be permitted to secede if they so desire. In Ukraine’s west, which includes the central region around Kyiv (Kiev), as well as portions of the country that border Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, more than nine-in-ten (93%) think their nation should remain unified. A smaller majority (70%) in the country’s east – which includes areas along the Black Sea and the border with Russia – also prefer unity. Only in the breakaway territory of Crimea do more than half (54%) voice support for the right to secede.

guess those 54% in the Crimea did not get the word as I thought the numbers voting for annexation into Russia were far higher----what happen---seems many woke up to the "Russian reality".

then again maybe buyers remorse --which is it comrade Russian reality or buyers remorse?

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 12:56 PM
The development of the supposedly Russian "humanitarian aid convoy" should be used as a case study in how Russia/Putin thinks and acts.

Driving this is the constant drumbeat coming out of the separatists "about the impending doom of a civilian humanitarian disaster" as the encirclement has gotten tighter by Ukrainian troops.

Appears Russia is trying to pull the Georgian/Moldavian "peacekeeping" end run to get Russian troops into the Ukraine.

All the while still heavily shelling the Ukraine from positions inside Russia and verified rolling of more heavy equipment/weapons and irregular fighters into the Ukraine.

"Humanitarian aid developments"

1. Russia tried to get a UNSC vote on "humanitarian aid" and failed
2. there was in fact an armed aid convoy---actually more armed than aid stopped by the West just short 200meters from the border
3. then Russia stated via their FM that yes they got the message about not entering using an "armed aid convoy as an invasion "cover" and that under international law the Ukraine must alone approve the aid
4. last night in Russian TV the Russian FM stated there had been a general plan worked with the ICRC, the US and EU for an aid convoy and that all aspects had been consented to by all players including approval by the Ukrainian President
5. then this morning Russia announces the aid convoy of 250 trucks is off and running towards the Ukraine from Moscow
6. then the ICRC stated publicly they had not approved anything as that they still had not seen the convoy details that Russia "promised" to provide so from them there is no aid plan
7. then the West indicates that they were to be part of the aid convoy as well as the Ukrainians and that they as well had heard nothing from the Russians
8. then the Ukrainians stated that the convoy was not what was discussed between Putin and the Ukrainian President
9. then the Ukrainian government announces they will stop the convoy on the border as it is not what was agreed with between the West, the Ukraine. the ICRC and talks with Putin---notice "Putin"---especially since RIA/Interfax both stated yesterday Putin was the main person handling this aid convoy approval
10. originally announced where to be 250 trucks now the count is at 280
11. AND all the time the ICRC based in the Donetsk and Kiev have been stating it is not as bad as Putin/Russia is making it out to be and there is more than enough aid available inside the Ukraine and they are simply waiting for the fighting to die down before making their own aid runs

So AP---

1. a PR propaganda stunt?
2. a provocation if the convoy is stopped thus allowing Russian troops to force the aid convoy into the Ukraine under the guise of "helping divert a ethnic Russian civilian disaster"
3. the aid convoy unbeknown to the West will be "accompanied" by Russian troops to keep it from being "attacked by the Right Sector or junta troops"---let's see two drivers per truck and armed equals 560 GRU/Spetznaz troops on the ground inside Donetsk--during the Cold War all Sovtrans trucks driving in the West were manned by GRU/KGB/Spetznaz personnel so driving long haulers is nothing new to them--so the 560 amount to a heavy Russian BN or two light BNs of special operations types---take your pick

So one of the above AP and or actually all three? And that represents what an honest above board clear thinking rational Russian government? And you really want to negotiate?

MOSCOW, August 12 (RIA Novosti) - The arrival of a Russian humanitarian convoy at the Ukrainian border is expected on Wednesday, August 13, a source told RIA Novosti on Tuesday.

The convoy of 280 trucks to southeastern Ukraine is said to be more than 3 kilometers (2 miles) long, carrying about 2,000 tons of humanitarian supplies, the source said. The aid includes 62 tons of baby food, 54 tons of medication, 12,000 sleeping bags among other things.

Earlier on, Russia addressed the humanitarian organizations in the United Nations (UN), the Organizations for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Council of Europe and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) about sending a humanitarian mission to Ukraine.

Russia had suggested deploying an international humanitarian mission with Russian humanitarian aid under the auspices of the ICRC in Ukraine’s eastern regions. The ICRC showed support for Russia’s proposal.

The Russian Foreign Ministry repeatedly stressed the necessity of urgent measures to prevent a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and urged its Western partners to support the humanitarian mission.

Notice the Ukrainians mistrust the truck drivers as much as I do ---both of us based on past experiences.

KIEV — Ukraine said on Tuesday that it would not allow any Russian aid into the country if it was accompanied by the Russian military or members of Russia's emergencies ministry.

Referring to a big Russian convoy which Moscow dispatched on Tuesday with aid to Ukraine, presidential aide Valery Chaly said: "This cargo will be reloaded onto other transport vehicles (at the border) by the Red Cross."

"We will not allow any escort by the emergencies ministry of Russia or by the military (onto Ukrainian territory). Everything will be under the control of the Ukrainian side," Chaly told journalists.

Formal Ukrainian response to the Russian aid offer from today:

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140812/191942011/Ukraine-Says-Russian-Humanitarian-Aid-Not-Certified-by-Red-Cross.html

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 01:59 PM
Here is a better open source analysis about the "humanitarian aid" done by the Dutch blogger whose open source analysis of the Buk was used by US intel.

I had indicated the potential of the truck drivers being military thus an average of 600 Russian troops would in fact be entering into the Ukraine disguised as "aid " truck drivers---he had a very good photo of them in military formation so one can in fact attest to them being in the military not you average run of the mill truck driver. Seems they come from a Russian Mech Brigade---which might in fact be one of the Russian peacekeeping brigades.

This is an interesting comment on one of the photos he released:

Since by now the disguise of the 'green little men' is exposed and outdated, Putin invented something new: The khaki little men...!!!

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/

NOTE: a blogger tailing the aid convoy and tweeting is indicating that it appears that the Russian "aid convoy" is heading towards the uncontrolled border crossing points under control of the mercenaries and will attempt to cross there--if so that is a major escalation by Russia. As it flies in the face of everything Russia has been saying it was doing and will if the reporting is accurate force the west into extremely hard responses since they warned Russia to refrain from any crossing as the open source clearly depicts both military vehicles and military drivers.


This tends to confirm his open source analysis but this time from Russian soliders:

Russian soldiers cannot seem to stop blogging and posting to the Russian Facebook.

Here they are bragging about having to paint 300 Russian KAMAZ green military vehicles white in a few days.

Russian keeps changing the number of aid trucks involved---first reported was 250 then 280 and now 298 even thought the Russian soldiers stated 300 had been repainted.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russian-soldiers-brag-on-internet-about-repainting-300-kamaz-trucks-to-carry-aid-360288.html

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 02:19 PM
Never knew that the Russian consumer was so interested in protecting themselves from potentially damaging US ice cream. Do they know something Americans do not know about Baskin Robin's ice cream?

Maybe the calories?

The Russian Duma seems to even want to top what Putin did in the first food ban.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/lawmaker-calls-for-inspection-of-baskin-robbins-ice-cream/504967.html

mirhond
08-12-2014, 03:29 PM
Why not? Non military problems with Russian and Ukraine? Sounds like a place for it to me.

And that's incorrect on your statement it affects chicken which is considered a basic staple. All fishing products from shrimp, tuna, crab, and lobster. Tuna at least is pretty common on shelves in supermarkets. It affects fruits such as apples from Poland. It affects vegetables which are once again big imports from eastern europe.

I suppose you think the russian side of the embargo only includes fine cheeses from France? Well that would be incorrect. But I'd like to hear you define why basic things like fruits and veggies are not considered staples? Grains? Fish? Chicken? Beef?

As far as Russian economy is temporary closed, I'll answer here

1. A fail to found exported chicken in Aushan or any other chain stores with reasonable prices.
2. You consider shrimp, crab, and lobster a "basic staple"? Gawd, You leave in a fairy kingdom, may be? This food is fu(king expensive, two-three time more expensive than ordinary beef, as expensive as fine veal.
3. Fruits and vegies vary greatly, from the cheapest Russian to the most expensive European, glorious Polish apples lie somewhere in the middle.
4. Fish - well, I'll miss Norwegian salmon. Beef/pork - there are some exported, two-three times more expensive than Russian.
5. Grain - Russia actually exports wheat, but imports durum wheat, but I prefer rye-bread, so I'll not suffer without macaroni and wheat-bread.

conclusion: I'll not starve because of sanctions, here is a pic of sanctioned grub I found in my fridge
http://i61.tinypic.com/5wwevm.jpg

Salmon is the only food which can't be easily replaced.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 03:59 PM
As far as Russian economy is temporary closed, I'll answer here

1. A fail to found exported chicken in Aushan or any other chain stores with reasonable prices.
2. You consider shrimp, crab, and lobster a "basic staple"? Gawd, You leave in a fairy kingdom, may be? This food is fu(king expensive, two-three time more expensive than ordinary beef, as expensive as fine veal.
3. Fruits and vegies vary greatly, from the cheapest Russian to the most expensive European, glorious Polish apples lie somewhere in the middle.
4. Fish - well, I'll miss Norwegian salmon. Beef/pork - there are some exported, two-three times more expensive than Russian.
5. Grain - Russia actually exports wheat, but imports durum wheat, but I prefer rye-bread, so I'll not suffer without macaroni and wheat-bread.

conclusion: I'll not starve because of sanctions, here is a pic of sanctioned grub I found in my fridge
http://i61.tinypic.com/5wwevm.jpg

Salmon is the only food which can't be easily replaced.

so comrade mirhond---again we have confirmation you actually are Russian and reside in Moscow and work for the FSB correct comrade?

we are still awaiting the photos you promised depicting vast amounts of food still on the shelves.

by the way hope you enjoy your white Russian friends in Belarus who will be making a killing off of re exporting to the motherland all banned food.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-russia-belarus-hold-talks-over-re-export-of-banned-western-food-360310.html

what a massive display of EEC unity if you ask me but you did not---seems Putin and company are having a hard time convincing Belarus to not re export---heck they even offered to take western raw materials and make new brands under their logos--so much for the unity thing.

no wonder the Ukraine did not want in the EEC.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 04:39 PM
As far as Russian economy is temporary closed, I'll answer here

1. A fail to found exported chicken in Aushan or any other chain stores with reasonable prices.
2. You consider shrimp, crab, and lobster a "basic staple"? Gawd, You leave in a fairy kingdom, may be? This food is fu(king expensive, two-three time more expensive than ordinary beef, as expensive as fine veal.
3. Fruits and vegies vary greatly, from the cheapest Russian to the most expensive European, glorious Polish apples lie somewhere in the middle.
4. Fish - well, I'll miss Norwegian salmon. Beef/pork - there are some exported, two-three times more expensive than Russian.
5. Grain - Russia actually exports wheat, but imports durum wheat, but I prefer rye-bread, so I'll not suffer without macaroni and wheat-bread.

conclusion: I'll not starve because of sanctions, here is a pic of sanctioned grub I found in my fridge
http://i61.tinypic.com/5wwevm.jpg

Salmon is the only food which can't be easily replaced.

comrade mirhond ---if that is all that is in your fridge you have got to get a better paying day job.

understand the GRU is offering high salaries, low to no risk in exotic places like the eastern Ukraine---they will even let you pick the town or city

if interested let me know and I will be sure to pass them your name for a follow up interview

understand eastern Ukraine is nice this time of the year.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 04:55 PM
AP--this is addressed to you as you seem to think one can negotiate with Russia/Putin if we only really try hard enough to understand them.

Now what Russia is saying "officially" concerning their full understanding of what is required for "aid" shipments (no military in the trucks)---and oh they did state to the world that they had an agreement with the ICRC which knew nothing it seems---BUT it does not match what they are in "reality" doing--- negotiations over what exactly.

Current status on the Russian "humanitarian aid" "shell game of where is the pea" being delivered in repainted Russian military KAMAZs driven by Russian military personnel.

AP--notice from the tweets the Russian "aid" convoy is moving under the ICRC flag and the ICRC has not approved the "aid" mission and has stated that to the world---negotiate over what again AP?

Here is the ICRC's statement--notice AP there is nothing stating "Russian has an approved aid plan from the ICRC".

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/12/red-cross-we-are-waiting-for-moscow-to-provide-the-list-of-humanitarian-supplies-to-ukraine/

This is from the RIA news agency RIA today --notice the distinct disconnect on where the "aid" is going--ie this their "official Russian statement".

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140812/191946867/Russian-Humanitarian-Aid-to-Enter-Ukraine-Near-Kharkiv--Kiev.html

This is from a blogger who has spotted the "aid" convoy headed to a different location-namely Rostov where there is no way to control their crossing as the Russians agreed to-notice the "real destination".

https://twitter.com/georgivs_cit/status/499200171952316416/photo/1

AmericanPride
08-12-2014, 05:03 PM
From Jeffrey Tayler at The Atlantic (http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/talk-to-the-russians/375898/?single_page=true):


The way out of this standoff lies in dialogue—realpolitik-based dialogue, the kind in which the United States engaged in the 1970s to initiate its groundbreaking détente policy with Leonid Brezhnev’s far stronger, more troublesome, and more threatening Soviet Union. Talking to Russia would be in keeping with how American presidents—from Franklin Roosevelt to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush—handled relations with their counterparts in the Kremlin even after major acts of Soviet aggression, from the repression of the Hungarian uprising in 1956 to the stationing of missiles in Cuba in 1962 to the occupation of Czechoslovakia in 1968 to the shooting down of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 in 1983.

His proposals:

o "Obama needs to formally rescind the NATO members’ declaration welcoming eventual Ukrainian and Georgian membership."

o "Russia must stop aiding separatists and destabilizing Ukraine, and allow the country to pursue its own path to democracy and economic prosperity."

o "A new [Crimea] referendum is now called for—one under the auspices of the United Nations."

o "Obama needs to meet Putin for a summit and signing ceremony."


And that represents what an honest above board clear thinking rational Russian government? And you really want to negotiate?

Again - your fixation on Russia as an irrational actor is a serious error. Russia has the motive, means, and opportunity, and it has responded in ways predicated by numerous Russia analysts - yet you keep insisting that Russia's behavior somehow cannot be understood. Moreover, you push for more confrontational policies with the assumption that it will compel Russia to behave in a desired manner even after arguing that Russia is irrational. Exactly how will Russia respond in a predictable rational manner, if Russia is a "rogue", "criminal", and "irrational" state? It's your line of argument that is irrational.

AmericanPride
08-12-2014, 05:09 PM
this is addressed to you as you seem to think one can negotiate with Russia/Putin

Every resolved dispute between Russia and the U.S. in the history of diplomatic relations between the two states has been resolved through negotiations, not through violence.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 05:26 PM
See AP you go off the deep end again--check my comments on the current location of the Russian "humanitarian aid" driven by verified Russian military headed to Rostov not where they were said by Russia to be heading.

And then check the ICRC released statements that they sent Russia with no response.

And then tell me again AP what does one negotiate over---by taking NATO off the table are you not exactly giving Putin what he stated he wanted in his Duma speech which you seemed to ignore and is exactly the reasoning behind his armed annexation of the Crimea?

And that AP is what you call negotiation?---come on you have got to have a better recommendation--I can think of three off the top of my hat.

It seems bloggers using open sources or on the roads inside Russia are far more informed that someone writing an article from exactly where AP?

Ah the enjoyment of distance--sometimes one has to be up close and personal to actually understand the real world out there AP.

So with all the words the US has whispered in Putin's ears about the "aid " shipments---and he does what again AP?

So again strong words are nice and nice to hear but in reality sometimes.....someone wrote today in a leading German newspaper concerning Iraq and how the PKK from the US condemned as a terror group and hunted down by Turkey is in fact leading the fight against the IS and are actually holding their own---what you ask a US terror listed group fighting head to head with the IS to defend their homeland.

Then the writer went on ---"sometimes one must go to war to achieve peace".

Obama's soft power approach did not work in Syria, it did not work in Gaza or the West Bank, it did not work in Mali, it did not work in Yemen, it is not working in AFG nor Iraq and it is not working in the Ukraine---and you want negotiations?

Come on AP give me a better written article that defines the here and now not some fantasy written again where?

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 05:40 PM
Every resolved dispute between Russia and the U.S. in the history of diplomatic relations between the two states has been resolved through negotiations, not through violence.

AP--let's look at say Europe through the eyes of those in Europe;

1. what did the US resolve in say 1956 in Hungary
2. what did the US resolve in say 1961 when the wall went up
3. what did the US resolve in 1968 in Prague---by the way the Soviets accused my SF team of being in Prague and we were nicely working in southern Italy
4. what did the US resolve in Poland in the 80s
5. what did the US resolve in 1990--nothing actually it was the collapse of the GDR that reunified Germany not US efforts--BY the way there is some indications that the US did not want to initially support German reunification.
6. Anything gained in Libya ---since the Russians hold that against us as well
7. Russia has signed at least two agreements in the last six months to ensure the Russian mercenaries lay down their arms and leave the occupied building---did you see that happen?
8. Russia stated yesterday they fully understood our warning on "aid" coming in without Ukrainian approval---and AP just where is that aid again?---in Rostov driven by military personnel.
9. Russia still holds the Libyan adventure against us--so nothing there.
10. and oh by the way Putin still holds the Iraqi adventure against us as do some Europeans

Let's see we could add we were assisting in the break up of the former Yugoslavia which Russian still holds against us---so nothing there or maybe Kosovo which again Russian holds against us.

Let's now look at the INF---is Russia in or out of compliance .

Let's look at say the OSCE disarmament agreements which we adhered to and Russia has still over 2K armored vehicles to destroy.

Let's look at say the Helsinki Accords--are the Russians in or out of compliance?

Let's look at say the Memorandum protecting Ukraine sovereignty in exchange of giving up the third largest nuclear weapons stockpile--Russia in or out of compliance.

Let's look at Russian aggression against Georgia and Moldavia ---anything settled there as of yet using US negotiations AP?

Let's look at what the Russians are doing to support the US in getting an Iranian agreement---not much my friend and they are doing a side deal themselves.

Let's look at there assistance in reigning in Assad--not much on that front although they are destroying the S300s BUT that is under the sanctions requirements.

Let's not even get into the Snowdon affair nor their constant cyber attacks and criminal cyber activities costing US taxpayers billions per year.

So you see from say the European perspective--again AP negotiate what?

As a second thought--you might when you look back at history say the US has really lucked out over the years as there has never been a solid national/global strategy in place --what you say we need a strategy---it has never been in our DNA.

So if luck is equal to neogiations when I guess we have been "neogiating over the years".

AmericanPride
08-12-2014, 05:41 PM
And then tell me again AP what does one negotiate over---

This has been answered repeatedly. Asking the same questions reptitively does not constitute any actual argument.


It seems bloggers using open sources or on the roads inside Russia are far more informed that someone writing an article from exactly where AP?

Jeffrey Tayler is The Atlantic's Russia correspondent.


Ah the enjoyment of distance--sometimes one has to be up close and personal to actually understand the real world out there AP.

If this true, then mirhond's comments should be considered more accurate than yours.


Then the writer went on ---"sometimes one must go to war to achieve peace".

Obama's soft power approach did not work in Syria, it did not work in Gaza or the West Bank, it did not work in Mali, it did not work in Yemen, it is not working in AFG nor Iraq and it is not working in the Ukraine---and you want negotiations?

So "war" with Russia is your suggestion for resolving the conflict with Ukraine? Would the goal be to "emasculate" Russia? :rolleyes:


Come on AP give me a better written article that defines the here and now not some fantasy

Again - Jeffrey Tayler is The Atlantic's Russia correspondent. Do a little basic research.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 06:07 PM
By the way AP---I do understand first the former Soviet Union and now Russia only to well.

Try starting your German Ph.D in the early 70s when you had as an American to defend every word spoken or written to at least six different versions of Communism being practiced/preached in German universities--and that does count the Chinese versions as well. And by the way defend your views in German not English.

That my friend teaches one well the finite game of dialectic materialism--try it someday.

Oh and having experienced crossing their border controls in the 80s was not a joy either.

Oh and having to deal directly with countless ex Soviet citizens coming into Berlin in the 80s was an eye opener as well.

So just maybe education and experience tends to teach one well when it comes to the former Soviet Union.

Where again was the quoted author say in 1956 or 1968 or Poland in the 80s or say the GDR in the mid to late 80s and he is a subject matter expert in what again AP?

And to top it off my company duels daily with Russian cyber criminal gangs---it keeps me in business for at least the next ten years.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 06:19 PM
AP--take your quoted Atlantic article and balance it against this today out of the Ukraine and tell me who speaks "truth to power". Again just how far away is the Atlantic magazine from the ground reality?

Again let those on the ground directly affected do it their way--stand back, provide all available assistance that is possible and let the population itself make up it's mind on what is to be their rule of law and good governance as it is their lives and their future not ours.

Go back and check the Helsinki Accords--that was the core assumptions written in it and signed by the Soviets and as the legal follow on government of the SU---Russia. And that AP clearly shows that Russia is in violation of the Accords they signed.

You have to love pundits speaking from the safety of what NYC?

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/12/the-reasons-behind-putins-humanitarian-convoy/

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 06:30 PM
I didn't say anything about Russia's convoy action. Please try to stay on topic. You are starting to sound unhinged.



This has been answered repeatedly. Asking the same questions reptitively does not constitute any actual argument.



Jeffrey Tayler is The Atlantic's Russia correspondent.



If this true, then mirhond's comments should be considered more accurate than yours. :rolleyes:



So "war" with Russia is your suggestion for resolving the conflict with Ukraine? Would the goal be to "emasculate" Russia? :rolleyes:



Again - Jeffrey Tayler is The Atlantic's Russia correspondent. Do a little basic research.

AP--you have to love it---a US journalist in Russia adhering to Russia residence requirements and he is not what "biased" come on AP and you do not think for a moment he is not tailed daily or monitored by the FSB. Come on AP you know nothing about Russia.

If he had been reporting from say the view of a few of the Russian opposition and there are some that condemn Putin's moves---would have some respect now reporting there and adhering to residence requirements tends to make one biased if you want to keep reporting from Moscow does it not?

You did not notice a word usage that resembles much of what the Russian FM states in RIA or Interfax---come on AP read between his lines.

And a FSB internet "troll" who for the longest time refused to state in SWJ he was even in Russia and worked for the FSB who "speaks truth to power"---come on AP get something better.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 07:23 PM
Now AP let's take this great example of yours that you yourself selected--step by step and in the end you will the holes in yours and the authors writing.

His proposals:

o "Obama needs to formally rescind the NATO members’ declaration welcoming eventual Ukrainian and Georgian membership."

Is this statement correct as written--why-- any common student of the NATO knows that Obama cannot formally do anything---and I know you do not like my experience and life paths but I have also worked in NATO staffs---you need a full 28 members unnamious decision to make any formal statement--Obama cannot rescind anything.

AP this is your excellent Russian journalist---he knows nothing on how NATO is both structured and functions---and you really expect the Baltics and Poland to go along---come on AP get better at this.

Example---it took almost five years to get the 28 members to just make a change to five words in a key document and you want what Obama to rescind?

o "Russia must stop aiding separatists and destabilizing Ukraine, and allow the country to pursue its own path to democracy and economic prosperity."

Come on AP really--the Russian FM has placed Russia's signature already on two Geneva documents stating as much and what has been the final results?[

Right now Putin via his own public statements stated that he had given orders to secure the border and what is exactly going on AP---so he says again he is going to "allow" self determination---have you noticed by the way just how he defines "self determination"--federation and he has never come off of that term and you do know what it means right AP?.

o "A new [Crimea] referendum is now called for—one under the auspices of the United Nations."

Come on AP--the author and you really believes that a Russian leader who has built his popularity on the annexation of the Crimea, his speech in the Duma and he calling out for the creation of the "New Russia" and who has issued his own new Putin Doctrine declaring Russia has the "right" to protect "all Russians anywhere in Europe" is going to do what exactly?--rescind everything he has done the last six months on top of his accusations against the western stupid mistakes that he blames us for causing him to act in this fashion. Really AP--he is going to do that?

He is just going to accept a new UN sanctioned election after he has declared to his entire Russian population the elections in the Crimea were fair, correct and democratic?

Does that make sense to you?

o "Obama needs to meet Putin for a summit and signing ceremony."

Now this require a massive leap of faith on your part as well as the writer thus it leads me to believe he is simply mouthing Russian demands nothing more nothing else and you use this writer as a "Russian expert"?

Just why would Obama do that?---the Crimea will never be returned as experience has shown that whatever Russian signs Russia does not hold to---just look at the Ukrainian Memorandum as a basis of experience with Russia holding to international agreements. Or do we need to mention the INF signed in the 80s that the Russian military wants overturned.

So we hold an election and the Crimea remains in Russia--what about Ukrainian sovereignty and national territorial integrity?--how does Obama explain that to them?

Then there is no mention for the elimination of the call by Putin for the "New Russia" nor is there a mechanism by which Putin renounces to the world his new Doctrine that all Russians can at any time be protected via the Russian military by his getting a simple Duma statement in less than 15 minutes.

So Obama gives everything away for what the promise of fair monitored elections where the majority will just vote again to remain in Russia.

so let me get this straight Obama commands NATO to do something he cannot demand, Obama gives the Crimea back to Russia because you know already how the vote will go, Obama signs then giving away the bank.

So exactly what is in this great concept for the Ukrainians pray tell-as the last time I checked it was about the Ukraine not the US and Russia.

So AP do me the favor and completely reread the suggestions from this Russian expert of a journalist and tell me the suggestions make any sense in this game of power politics.

And this does not even take in just how the EU/NATO will respond to it especially after Obama has often stated this is really an European problem.

I can actually go back and show you exactly similar demands being made by Russian nationalists the last few weeks---so what is so new with this Atlantic writer?

Does it make sense to you?

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 07:37 PM
And an (ex-)U.S. special forces operator with service in Europe during the Cold War who "started his German PhD in the early 1970s" isn't biased? :rolleyes: Again - your argument proves too much. In the attempt to delegitmize the arguments of others by attacking their credentials and experiences, you only open yourself up to the same criticisms.

Are you physically closer to Ukraine than Mirhond? Are you currently a resident in Russia like Jeffrey Tayler? Have you lived in Russia for more years than Tayler? Do you speak more languages than Tayler (I count 7 on his biography)? Have you published more articles on Russia than Tayler? So - by your own measurements, you are not qualified to talk about this issue.

Then after you inhale read my response to his proposals which will never fly inside NATO nor the EU.

Noticed you all give Obama the power to rescind NATO decisions---that one is new to me, but I guess this writer is what also a NATO subject matter expert---right AP?

Speaking seven languages does not make one an expert nor correct in what he writes.

Just shows he has a good left brain capability.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 07:51 PM
And an (ex-)U.S. special forces operator with service in Europe during the Cold War who "started his German PhD in the early 1970s" isn't biased? :rolleyes: Again - your argument proves too much. In the attempt to delegitmize the arguments of others by attacking their credentials and experiences, you only open yourself up to the same criticisms.

Are you physically closer to Ukraine than Mirhond? Are you currently a resident in Russia like Jeffrey Tayler? Have you lived in Russia for more years than Tayler? Do you speak more languages than Tayler (I count 7 on his biography)? Have you published more articles on Russia than Tayler? So - by your own measurements, you are not qualified to talk about this issue.

So AP--you give me a supposedly great article by a journalist who speaks seven languages and yet you ignore just exactly how Russia is acting with the "humanitarian aid" being driven by Russian military,

You seem to ignore exactly what the US has told Russia is acceptable in order for "humanitarian aid". You see how Russian is avoiding the ICRC while claiming they are working with the ICRC and now the aid convoy is headed to a crossing point not controlled by the Ukraine and is a direct affront to the US/UK/Germany.

This was just released by the Russian FM via Interfax:---notice just how Russia demands that the Ukraine cannot make demands on a topic that falls under their own their territorial sovereignty control and in the face of what they have been told by the US and the ICRC.

AND have basically lied to the world about just what they are doing with that "aid".

AND then you really believe what your journalist wrote has a snow balls chance in heaven---come on AP.

08/12 21:17 Lavrov expects additional terms set by Kyiv for humanitarian aid delivery to be disavowed (Part 2)

AND AP then this via Interfax from the Russian side a tad earlier:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/lavrov-kyiv-confirmed-willingness-to-accept-humanitarian-aid-from-russia-360348.html

AND then AP---the Ukrainian response----so again you support I assume Ukrainian sovereignty?

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/kyiv-says-no-list-of-humanitarian-aid-items-from-moscow-yet-360354.html

And yet AP you seem to not see as does your writer not see the Russian shuffle the pea game being played just as in Georgia and Moldavia.

And the writer as do you suggest negotiation and I say over what?

Nyxilis
08-12-2014, 09:37 PM
Russia's economic embargo of food is in direct relation over its sanctions over Crimea and it's support of the rebels. Russia's economic collapse or failure to collapse is now directly tied to it. Considering Ukraine and Russia have also been sparring with sanctions. Directly related.


1. A fail to found exported chicken in Aushan or any other chain stores with reasonable prices.For now, Russia imported billions worth of meat. First month it will be of little effect. Meat is already slaughtered, in supply. That will last all of a month then prices wills tart to rise. I never said foodless in my original post I said cost increase. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/imports



2. You consider shrimp, crab, and lobster a "basic staple"? Gawd, You leave in a fairy kingdom, may be? This food is fu(king expensive, two-three time more expensive than ordinary beef, as expensive as fine veal.I certainly consider shrimp such, and crab. Both are actually found rather cheap in the US, EU, Australia, Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. Only certain crab breeds are expensive. Why isn't it true for Russia? Only lobster is exclusively pricier.


3. Fruits and vegies vary greatly, from the cheapest Russian to the most expensive European, glorious Polish apples lie somewhere in the middle.They will vary a lot less soon for yes some are pricier than others, but it doesn't matter. If you cut out a low cost or an expensive supplier than means your supply is lower. Even .05 cent veggies will go up. Every penny is just one less in the middle and poor's pockets.


4. Fish - well, I'll miss Norwegian salmon. Beef/pork - there are some exported, two-three times more expensive than Russian.Russia is not self sufficient in beef. Cattle was being exported en masse to Russia because it was trying to become beef self sufficient. Most of these imported cattle were from the US. :D It was part of what was driving up beef costs in the US even before the drought in the southwest. It wasn't there yet, supply is now down, beef will go up. Once more, never said beefless, I said cost. Even as far back as 2012 Russia was still importing a lot of beef: http://en.mercopress.com/2012/07/28/russia-investing-heavily-in-becoming-self-sufficient-in-beef-production




5. Grain - Russia actually exports wheat, but imports durum wheat, but I prefer rye-bread, so I'll not suffer without macaroni and wheat-bread.What you prefer, and what other people eat especially poor are an entirely different thing. Russian wheat imports were not the most impressive but any product removed is an alternative no longer there. Russia still imported most of its lentils, peas, beans, soy, and other low cost food items.

You completely missed the point, ranting and raving how you would still have food. Russia will still have food but Russia imports far to much food. 1.1 million tons of beef in 2012 from the US alone, not including beef imports from Canada, Australia, and other countries. This goes for each and every product we talked about here. Russia will not be foodless, but certain food prices in the US are already going down because of it. Beans, for example directly related to it because it's no longer going there. Russia's cost will go up. Cost, cost, cost. Extra spending cash was already low in Russia's middle class, this will just consume more of it. Russia only punished its middle class and poor. The more trouble they get into the more they turn to the state, the more the state has to spend to make certain they eat the more it will cost for them.

Anecdotal pictures of food I don't care about. I want data that suggests Russia didn't import more than 30% of its food. Show me that.

OUTLAW 09
08-12-2014, 10:05 PM
From Jeffrey Tayler at The Atlantic (http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/talk-to-the-russians/375898/?single_page=true):



His proposals:

o "Obama needs to formally rescind the NATO members’ declaration welcoming eventual Ukrainian and Georgian membership."

o "Russia must stop aiding separatists and destabilizing Ukraine, and allow the country to pursue its own path to democracy and economic prosperity."

o "A new [Crimea] referendum is now called for—one under the auspices of the United Nations."

o "Obama needs to meet Putin for a summit and signing ceremony."



Again - your fixation on Russia as an irrational actor is a serious error. Russia has the motive, means, and opportunity, and it has responded in ways predicated by numerous Russia analysts - yet you keep insisting that Russia's behavior somehow cannot be understood. Moreover, you push for more confrontational policies with the assumption that it will compel Russia to behave in a desired manner even after arguing that Russia is irrational. Exactly how will Russia respond in a predictable rational manner, if Russia is a "rogue", "criminal", and "irrational" state? It's your line of argument that is irrational.

AP:---both you and the writer of the article do actually realize that Russia is in an undeclared war with the Ukraine fought using it's own troops and irregulars conducting UW in a political warfare environment---you both do realize that right?

Secondly---after reading the article a number of times ------this proposal is a take off of the recently lanced via a Russian newspaper owner in the UK that alleged money for land allegedly from Merkel.

Now the new lanced version is land for land---meaning if we hold an UN election and we win we will "allow" the Ukraine to keep eastern Ukraine.

Now if I remember correctly both the Crimea and eastern Ukraine are territorially part and parcel of the Ukraine so why would Putin offer land for land which is not his in the first place.

If you happen to look at the statistics that mirhond accidently posted---54% of those polled in the Crimea would today vote for Russia---in the east well over 75% would vote to remain in the Ukraine. So we know now in advance how a UN election will turn out,

So knowing that in advance--- it is a land for land deal and thus another attempted balloon from Russia to see if the West will bite. Surprised that the writer would allow himself to be the messenger at least the Russian newspaper owner lanced an "alleged" story.

Besides I can never foresee Russia placing the chance into the hands of the electorate--- that he could in fact potentially lose the Black Sea Fleet base---would you?

Again you do realize there is an undeclared war ongoing in eastern Ukraine?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/12/ukrainian-troops-retreat-from-russian-border-leaving-100-kilometers-defenseless-against-invasion.html

AmericanPride
08-12-2014, 10:33 PM
AP:---both you and the writer of the article do actually realize that Russia is in an undeclared war with the Ukraine fought using it's own troops and irregulars conducting UW in a political warfare environment---

How many interstate wars end by negotiated settlement and how many be the annihilation of one of the belligerents?


Now if I remember correctly both the Crimea and eastern Ukraine are territorially part and parcel of the Ukraine so why would Putin offer land for land which is not his in the first place.


If you happen to look at the statistics that mirhond accidently posted---54% of those polled in the Crimea would today vote for Russia---in the east well over 75% would vote to remain in the Ukraine. So we know now in advance how a UN election will turn out

Crimea is now de facto a part of Russia. How do you propose to change that?


Besides I can never foresee Russia placing the chance into the hands of the electorate--- that he could in fact potentially lose the Black Sea Fleet base---would you?

Are you suggesting, contrary to your previous claims, that Russia is in fact a rational actor with material interests it pursues with calculated actions? :eek:

JMA
08-12-2014, 10:48 PM
Every resolved dispute between Russia and the U.S. in the history of diplomatic relations between the two states has been resolved through negotiations, not through violence.

For the record, would you be so kind as to list these 'disputes' and how they arose?

mirhond
08-14-2014, 03:33 PM
Russia's economic embargo of food is in direct relation over its sanctions over Crimea and it's support of the rebels

You wrote about Russian economy, so I've answered to your post in appropriate thread.

Rada Hustle Daily

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0__Upj-EpKg

L'ashko got punched into the face by Shevchenko, I love this Parliament, really. :)

mirhond
08-16-2014, 01:56 PM
Odessa massacre. Someone kills a woman inside the Trade Unions house.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvnLsshOJ18&list=TLj_IzWELkggUYiSt_dN3BeJQN8cNqbbxk

0:23 She cries "Help!"
0:30 reply from the croud "Lay her out"
1:21 "there are calls to let them burn alive"
1:59 "She is not a woman she is a separatist"
2:04 "Women are at home with kids, she is a bitch"

upd.
another pick of funny BS from Ukromedia.

http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3404723-syly-ato-unychtozhyly-avtomobyl-s-separatystamy

COIN forces destroyed a car with separatists.
http://kor.ill.in.ua/m/610x385/1484731.jpg

Vatniki (derogatory nickname for pro-Russians) are so dumb that they somehow drove a car without wheels and engine :D

ps. to be honest, korrespondent.net admits that entire story smells like bull$#!t.

OUTLAW 09
08-16-2014, 03:06 PM
Odessa massacre. Someone kills a woman inside the Trade Unions house.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvnLsshOJ18&list=TLj_IzWELkggUYiSt_dN3BeJQN8cNqbbxk

0:23 She cries "Help!"
0:30 reply from the croud "Lay her out"
1:21 "there are calls to let them burn alive"
1:59 "She is not a woman she is a separatist"
2:04 "Women are at home with kids, she is a bitch"

upd.
another pick of funny BS from Ukromedia.

http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3404723-syly-ato-unychtozhyly-avtomobyl-s-separatystamy

COIN forces destroyed a car with separatists.
http://kor.ill.in.ua/m/610x385/1484731.jpg

Vatniki (derogatory nickname for pro-Russians) are so dumb that they somehow drove a car without wheels and engine :D

ps. to be honest, korrespondent.net admits that entire story smells like bull$#!t.

let's speak truth to power mirhond;

this is the UK FT headline for tomorrow morning---basically states 70 Russian vehicles into the Ukraine---70 Russian vehicles destroy by Ukrainian artillery.

Putin denies, the Russian FM denies, the Russian Defense Minister denies--but guess what mirhond that thing called a GMTI (Ground Movement Target Indicator) that can even identify how fast you are walking at a very long distance and can tell the difference in vehicles ---it does not lie comrade mirhond.

what is with your Defense Minister---seems he does not believe NATO AWACs and E3s can "see anything"?
NATO confirmed the number of vehcilces going in

davidbfpo
08-26-2014, 04:48 PM
I am aware that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania) have been concerned about Russia's policy towards the Ukraine and protecting Russian communities, this is the first time I have seen the Finns publicly expressing concern and by their President:
The possibility of military alliance through membership in NATO will remain as one option for our security policy also in the future....European Union security and defense policy hasn’t developed as we had hoped.

Link:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/finland-says-nato-an-option-after-russia-violates-border-laws.html?cmpid=yhoo

kaur
08-26-2014, 06:25 PM
Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Window on Eurasia: Five Questions Western Leaders Should Be Asking Themselves about the Crisis in Ukraine - But Don’t Appear to Be

Paul Goble

Staunton, August 26 – The leaders of major Western countries declare that they are seeking to find an answer to the crisis in Ukraine, but in order to find an answer, it is important that they begin to ask the right questions. It is all too clear that many of them are not doing so – and the consequences for Ukraine and the world may be dire as well.


http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/08/window-on-eurasia-five-questions.html

davidbfpo
08-29-2014, 03:27 PM
An official Swedish report (FOI or Defence Research Agency) 'A Rude Awakening. Ramifications of Russian Aggression Towards Ukraine':http://www.foi.se/report?rNo=FOI-R--3892--SE

The Abstract:
The main purpose of this study is to examine the wider implications of Russia's aggression against Ukraine with a broad analytical perspective. While the effects of the crisis in the region of Crimea and eastern Ukraine have received much attention, there has so far been less analytical focus on the effects beyond the region and on the possible ramifications for the international system. In this study, we put forward the proposition that there is no way back to a status quo ante. The contours of a new situation in strategic affairs can be clearly discerned, but the long-term impacts and effects are yet to be seen. The study can be read in several ways. The first chapter summarises some of the possible effects of the crisis and asks to what extent we are facing a systemic shift in world affairs. The rest of the study is divided into two main parts. Part one: Setting the Scene, gives a background and analysis of the underlying factors and drivers of the crisis from a Ukrainian, Russian and an EU perspective. Part two: Implications, firstly analyses Russian military operations in Crimea, followed by consequences for the Ukraine. A thematic approach, in the areas of international law, economy, energy and sanctions, follows. The next chapter explores the security policy and strategic consequences. Lastly, we analyse some implications for key actors, regions and conflicts.

Note the download PDF failed to work here.

OUTLAW 09
08-29-2014, 06:59 PM
Now begins the slow but ever increasing crash of the Russian economy.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/business/independent-russian-rouble-plunges-to-record-low-against-dollar-amid-ukraine-tension-362628.html

Russian spent years trying to get into the WTO;

#Russia mulls leaving the #WTO .... Russia Direct -
http://www.russia-direct.org/content/amidst-sanction-war-west-can-russia-leave-wto … #tradewars

Now this is in fact a massive restrictive sanction suggested by the UK:

The UK’s plan for new sanctions on Russia would effectively cut off Russian businesses from the rest of the world
http://read.bi/1rECU2x

Dayuhan
08-30-2014, 04:46 AM
Moving this to the non-military aspects bin, where it belongs...


Dayuhan---that pointing this out to you as you sometimes while looking at the picture see the small things not what is staring you in the face. By the way the comments I had on oil in fact came from one of the best oil commenters in the business not from the blog world.

Who? Citation, please.


Secondly oil---have you honestly checked how the current prices for sour crude are dropping and fast---Russia defines their needs last week to be 104 per barrel actually up from their previous statement of 95.

Sour crude is expected to drop to the support range of 90 and if it breaks through that then the bottom cannot be seen. Right now in the face of massive intl political events which should be driving the prices up they are in fact sinking on their own---ever wonder why?

What specific benchmark or index are you tracking as "sour crude"?

Russia doesn't have a benchmark of its own, though it has been pushing for one, but 80% of Russian exports trade on the RTS as "Urals Blend". The same product used to trade as REBCO (Russian Export Blend Crude Oil) on the NYMEX, but has been dormant for some time: effectively the price of Urals Blend is what Russia gets for its oil. Urals blend typically trades a bit below Brent but above WTI or the US-traded Light Sweet Crude index.

Just for reference, a 6-month chart showing Brent and Urals Crude prices:

http://www.nesteoil.com/default.asp?path=1,41,538,2035,5193

And a chart of the spread between Brent and Urals Crude, back to 2009:

http://www.nesteoil.com/default.asp?path=1,41,538,2035,13741

You will notice that the spread moves within a fairly narrow band. If there was a specific attempt to push Russian oil prices down, and if that attempt succeeded, the spread should be increasing. It's not.

Oil prices across the board have been decreasing. That has nothing at all to do with the Ukraine, it's just markets doing what they do. Oil has been consistently above $100 for pushing 4 years. That price level has spurred a lot of investment in new production, particularly in the US, and has also pushed major consuming countries to get serious about conservation and alternatives. As a result, prices drop. They will drop until consumption rises and/or economically marginal fields go off line, and which point they will go up, seeking an equilibrium. Of course there is never perfect equilibrium, given the number of factors involved, but there is absolutely no serious evidence to suggest that the US can control, let alone weaponize, oil prices.

Some recent discussion of forecasts:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-12/eia-cuts-2014-oil-price-outlook-as-u-dot-s-dot-output-surges

Of course it is also true that the Russian energy industry is in deep scheisse and was in it even before the Ukraine affair began. An oil price decline will of course exacerbate that trouble. Sanctions can too, if they are multilateral. Again, both in practical and psychological terms it is critically important that the US and Europe move together and show a united front on sanctions. Any indication that the US is willing to go out alone will just encourage Europe to sit on their hands and let the Americans do it.


Think about it---all banks--global in nature have to clear their USD accounts through NYC and for that they must get a US license to do business---even if just clearing USDs.To clear even USDs for a Russian sanctioned person or companies risks that bank losing it's US license and if lost they cannot clear USDs regardless where those dollars reside and if they cannot clear that means a business disaster for them.

If only it were that simple.

This all follows a pattern that has become common around here, though still less common than it is in many places on the Internet: imagine that the US government has a set of global superpowers, like control over oil prices and currency movements, and then get all irate that the government is not using these powers in the manner that those doing the commenting desire. It must be terribly frustrating, a frustration akin to that of a child who can't figure out why The Avengers do not actually show up to save the day.

I expect there's a whole lot of negotiating going on right now among the US and the major EU players, aimed at determining how far sanctions will be upgraded. We'll see what they come up with: some will think it too much, some will think it too little, which is the nature of negotiation. What impact it all has on Russia we also don't know, but it is pretty clear that there is not going to be a military response and that the US has no intention of moving to a unilateral response. Personally I think that's a good thing, but I'm sure many will disagree. It does seem worth considering that in several regions the US seems to be taking steps aimed at forcing regional allies to step up and carry their share, which seems to me a policy goal well worth pursuing. Does anyone think that Merkel would be as engaged as she is if the US had elbowed its way to the front of the pack and dominated the response to the Ukraine crisis? Would the Japanese be moving to re-arm and take a more active role in regional security if the US had charged in with security guarantees for all regional allies? Sometimes it's necessary to hold back to get others to do their share. The mantra of "let the Americans deal with it" has got to stop.

kaur
09-06-2014, 12:34 PM
One old speech.


In these States control is enforced upon the common people by various kinds of all-embracing police governments. The power of the State is exercised without restraint, either by dictators or by compact oligarchies operating through a privileged party and a political police. It is not our duty at this time when difficulties are so numerous to interfere forcibly in the internal affairs of countries which we have not conquered in war. But we must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones the great principles of freedom and the rights of man which are the joint inheritance of the English-speaking world and which through Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus, trial by jury, and the English common law find their most famous expression in the American Declaration of Independence.


A shadow has fallen upon the scenes so lately lighted by the Allied victory. Nobody knows what Soviet Russia and its Communist international organisation intends to do in the immediate future, or what are the limits, if any, to their expansive and proselytising tendencies.


The Communist parties, which were very small in all these Eastern States of Europe, have been raised to pre-eminence and power far beyond their numbers and are seeking everywhere to obtain totalitarian control. Police governments are prevailing in nearly every case, and so far, except in Czechoslovakia, there is no true democracy.

Etc

http://history1900s.about.com/od/churchillwinston/a/Iron-Curtain.htm

davidbfpo
09-12-2014, 04:10 PM
A lengthy Swedish commentary via John Schindler's blog (which I citre frequently, second time today):http://20committee.com/2014/09/12/time-for-a-counterattack-on-the-kremlin/

Apart from the main body the author advocates an option that would wake up Russia:
The time has arrived for some good, old-fashioned treatment of Russian intelligence operatives. We have to expel them from the West. A coordinated US/European counterintelligence operation, in which every suspected Russian operative is sent home, sends a very powerful message into the heart of the security state that Russia regrettably has become. It also disrupts operations going on in our countries, where officers from the FSB, GRU and SVR are directing illegals, trying to influence people in high places while recruiting more to secretly work for Moscow.

Long ago the UK did this, expelling just over a hundred accredited Soviet diplomats. The world did not end, yes it was frosty for awhile.

AmericanPride
09-13-2014, 05:40 PM
Analysis of elections (https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/andrii-ianitskyi/crimean-elections-russian-style) in Crimea this weekend:


Now that Crimea is firmly under Russia’s control, its formal political structures will most likely mirror that of Russia’s State Duma – dominated by United Russia with the other parties competing for scraps; and with the real power operating behind the scenes.

mirhond
09-15-2014, 02:35 PM
Ukraine and Belarus GDP per capita comparison


http://tinypic.com/r/5vdj7q/8



databank.worldbank.org/data/Popular_indicators/id/af3ce82b

OUTLAW 09
09-15-2014, 04:35 PM
These comments and linked article is extremely telling as it appears that the Ukrainian adventure by Putin has been planned for a long while.

So in fact the trend here concerning one must negotiate one's self out the current Ukrainian crisis flies in the face of existing Russian thoughts back in 2013.

Journalist referenced is with the Moscow of The Guardian as a correspondent.


Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7

It's all there. I even remember thinking carefully about how to phrase the piece as it all sounded so bonkers at the time.

"Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed to Moscow."

Shaun Walker @shaunwalker7 · 2h

One of 1st stories a year back was Glazyev threatening UKR faced "potential collapse". Thought he was nuts at time.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/ukraine-european-union-trade-russia …

Begs the next question what was it the West was hearing and seeing that Russia was doing in September 2013 that should have told them where Russia was heading?

Below taken from the article is actually the current Russian blueprint for the eastern Ukraine.

Glazyev, speaking on the sidelines of the discussion, said the exact opposite was true: "Ukrainian authorities make a huge mistake if they think that the Russian reaction will become neutral in a few years from now. This will not happen."

Instead, he said, signing the agreement would make the default of Ukraine inevitable and Moscow would not offer any helping hand. "Russia is the main creditor of Ukraine. Only with customs union with Russia can Ukraine balance its trade," he said. Russia has already slapped import restrictions on certain Ukrainian products and Glazyev did not rule out further sanctions if the agreement was signed.

The Kremlin aide added that the political and social cost of EU integration could also be high, and allowed for the possibility of separatist movements springing up in the Russian-speaking east and south of Ukraine. He suggested that if Ukraine signed the agreement, Russia would consider the bilateral treaty that delineates the countries' borders to be void.

"We don't want to use any kind of blackmail. This is a question for the Ukrainian people," said Glazyev. "But legally, signing this agreement about association with EU, the Ukrainian government violates the treaty on strategic partnership and friendship with Russia." When this happened, he said, Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could possibly intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Moscow.

"Signing this treaty will lead to political and social unrest," said the Kremlin aide. "The living standard will decline dramatically … there will be chaos."

OUTLAW 09
09-15-2014, 06:08 PM
It seems those that commented here about understanding the Russian complaints about their need of a sphere of influence and negotiations was the way forward failed to fully understand the "Putin Doctrine" as he expressed it in his Duma speech--namely the right to defend Russian speakers regardless of where they reside.

After his moves on the Crimea and eastern Ukraine now come the Baltics---and he is not interested in rebuilding the former Soviet Union?

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation has called for the protection of the rights of the Russian-speaking population in the Baltic States.

The Russian Ministry Commissioner for Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, Konstantin Dolgov, has appealed to the international community to protect the rights of Russian speakers in Latvia and Estonia. He made his announcement at the regional conference of Russian compatriots of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia on September 13, reports Ukrainska Pravda, September 15.

“We will not tolerate the creeping attack on the Russian language that we observe in the Baltic States. We consider the well-known steps by the governments of Latvia and Estonia aimed at the infringement of the status and position of the Russian language a gross violation of human rights,” Dolgov declared.

Dolgov added that he considers unacceptable the fact that representatives of national minorities in the Baltic States are not able to use their own language in topographical names.

“More than 50% of the population residing in the largest Latvian cities are Russian in their ethnic composition. This is a glaring example of the flagrant trampling of human rights in the heart of civilized Europe,” Dolgov said.

Dolgov also expressed concern about the growth of neo-Nazi and xenophobic sentiments in Europe, citing the example of events in Ukraine after the “anti-constitutional coup” and the “armed seizure of power.”

“The position taken by Ukrainian ultra-radicals and neo-Nazis on building an ‘ethnically pure’ Ukrainian state has always been clear. This is confirmed by many concrete facts and evidence, (as outlined) in two editions of the “White Book” that we have prepared on Ukraine,” he said. (Russia’s Foreign Ministry has published two editions of its “White Book” on “the most heinous human rights violations perpetrated by Kyiv in Ukraine’s east” .

NOTICE--Dolgov seems to not have seen the eight different Russian ultra radials ie Nazi's who are actively fighting in the Donbas with the separatists and now with the Russian troops.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/russia-warns-of-unfortunate-consequences-over-ethnic-tension#3acondr

AmericanPride
09-15-2014, 10:57 PM
Outlaw -

Poroshenko provided clarity on what he is prepared to offer (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/heavy-fighting-between-ukrainian-forces-and-pro-russian-rebels-over-the-weekend/2014/09/15/9f522a6c-1a27-4f3a-8c6a-5432c92911a3_story.html) the separatists in his negotiations to end the conflict:


President Petro Poroshenko on Monday proposed a series of major concessions to end the uprising by pro-Russian rebels in restive eastern Ukraine, offering the separatists a broad amnesty and special self-governance status for territories they occupy.

The proposal also includes protections for the Russian language and would allow the separatist-controlled regions to elect their own judges, create their own police forces and cultivate deeper ties to Russia — while remaining part of Ukraine.

So, there will be two major issues: (1) can Poroshenko sell this to the hard-liners in his own parliament and (2) does Russia have sufficient control over the separatists to enforce their compliance pending an agreement? Of course, answers to both questions will seriously call into question the validity of your arguments about Russia's goals, 'rationality', and so-called "altered state of reality". Poroshenko has already delayed Ukraine's treaty with the EU - so it appears that the "irrational" "rogue" Russian state is getting one over on everybody. How are those sanctions doing by the way? Any indication that it will reverse Russian's gains any time soon?

So after all the fighting and destruction, it appears that Kiev is willing to offer the separatists what they had demanded from the very beginning.

OUTLAW 09
09-16-2014, 08:07 AM
Outlaw -

Poroshenko provided clarity on what he is prepared to offer (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/heavy-fighting-between-ukrainian-forces-and-pro-russian-rebels-over-the-weekend/2014/09/15/9f522a6c-1a27-4f3a-8c6a-5432c92911a3_story.html) the separatists in his negotiations to end the conflict:



So, there will be two major issues: (1) can Poroshenko sell this to the hard-liners in his own parliament and (2) does Russia have sufficient control over the separatists to enforce their compliance pending an agreement? Of course, answers to both questions will seriously call into question the validity of your arguments about Russia's goals, 'rationality', and so-called "altered state of reality". Poroshenko has already delayed Ukraine's treaty with the EU - so it appears that the "irrational" "rogue" Russian state is getting one over on everybody. How are those sanctions doing by the way? Any indication that it will reverse Russian's gains any time soon?

So after all the fighting and destruction, it appears that Kiev is willing to offer the separatists what they had demanded from the very beginning.

See again AP---you simply do not get it---the Ukrainian President is only a bit player in a side show.

The main show is the Putin Doctrine---meaning any Russia speaking person in any bordering country to Russia is fair game to be annexed back into the Russian empire. It goes to the heart of the new Russian Fascism revival I call now ethno national neo imperialism.

AP--see you never seem to read Putin's speech's, TV comments, and or his press releases--it has been there for all to see since 2001--clear as a bell but the West assumed he was for one thing all the while he headed in a different direction and the West "what" never saw it coming---they did but did not want to believe it.

I take it you now noticed the unspoken actually "outspoken" threats voiced yesterday at the Baltics---pray tell.

Secondly, you still are missing what the main show is ---the Putin Doctrine and it's coupled UW in support to political warfare is a strategy to achieve the following set of end goals or end states. And by the way coupled to a very strong nuclear threat that is often outspoken as a shock effect technique.

Oh and let's not forget probably one of the best run informational warfare operations in the history of the world right now or have you by chance missed it---including Ron Paul and his Institute.

1. the splitting of the EU from the US
2. the neutralization and overall weakening of NATO as a potential military threat to Russia
3. the over all weakening of the EU why--because it has a set of economic regulations that is contrary to the way the Russia with it's State owned and run businesses operate---namely as monopolies and as a State directed weapons system ie gas.

The Ukraine was picked in order to drive the above three points nothing more nothing less.

If you go back to my comments from the very beginning--you would have seen a strong demand for immediate and hard sanctions of the type that has finally been passed---but now in effect far to late---or have you not been tracking on the Russian economy thread the massive economic impact they have made just in the last three weeks?

If Putin had been faced and knew the damages he is now seeing--the question is open as to whether he would have done what he did knowing the end result is a badly damaged economy that will take years to recover to the state of say even 2010.

So again I ask you pray tell what negotiations achieved?---even you admit the annexation of south eastern Ukraine and a land corridor to Crimea is a done deal---right that is what you actually admitted in your comments.

Negotiations achieved what?
1. timely turnover of all POWs---that was not achieved and why--the separatists want de facto results on the ground under protection of Russian troops
2. even you stated they have achieved what they wanted ie what Russia wanted--a "New Russia" achieved via the Putin Doctrine

Noticed today that the NPR announced they are going to the Ruble and both Republics stated yesterday they will not honor the agreement and they will be both independent==at first they even denied signing the agreement until their signatures were released.

3. Russian troops especially the 15th Peacekeeping Brigade are now fully inside south eastern Ukraine and there is an old fisher wifes tale--were the Russian Army plants itself they never seem to leave ask eastern Europe at the end of WW2 or ask Moldavia or Georgia since 2008.

AP--take heed of this comment and ask yourself a "rational and or irrational statement"?

#Ukraine's DM had previously said that #Russia threatened to use tactical nukes. His deputy now says Russian nuclear artillery is in Ukraine.

By the way I did not post the net comment that the Russian 240mm self propelled mortar system that is in fact capable of firing a tactical 2KT nuclear weapon has now been seen inside the eastern Ukraine--three of them by the way.

NOW ask yourself has NATO moved any strategic and or tactical nuclear weapons systems up to the border of Russian in say the last 30 years--no.

AP--widen your thinking---you field of vision is to narrow.

And your comments are going in circles because of the narrow vision.

OUTLAW 09
09-16-2014, 08:39 AM
See again AP---you simply do not get it---the Ukrainian President is only a bit player in a side show.

The main show is the Putin Doctrine---meaning any Russia speaking person in any bordering country to Russia is fair game to be annexed back into the Russian empire. It goes to the heart of the new Russian Fascism revival I call now ethno national neo imperialism.

AP--see you never seem to read Putin's speech's, TV comments, and or his press releases--it has been there for all to see since 2001--clear as a bell but the West assumed he was for one thing all the while he headed in a different direction and the West "what" never saw it coming---they did but did not want to believe it.

I take it you now noticed the unspoken actually "outspoken" threats voiced yesterday at the Baltics---pray tell.

Secondly, you still are missing what the main show is ---the Putin Doctrine and it's coupled UW in support to political warfare is a strategy to achieve the following set of end goals or end states. And by the way coupled to a very strong nuclear threat that is often outspoken as a shock effect technique.

Oh and let's not forget probably one of the best run informational warfare operations in the history of the world right now or have you by chance missed it---including Ron Paul and his Institute.

1. the splitting of the EU from the US
2. the neutralization and overall weakening of NATO as a potential military threat to Russia
3. the over all weakening of the EU why--because it has a set of economic regulations that is contrary to the way the Russia with it's State owned and run businesses operate---namely as monopolies and as a State directed weapons system ie gas.

The Ukraine was picked in order to drive the above three points nothing more nothing less.

If you go back to my comments from the very beginning--you would have seen a strong demand for immediate and hard sanctions of the type that has finally been passed---but now in effect far to late---or have you not been tracking on the Russian economy thread the massive economic impact they have made just in the last three weeks?

If Putin had been faced and knew the damages he is now seeing--the question is open as to whether he would have done what he did knowing the end result is a badly damaged economy that will take years to recover to the state of say even 2010.

So again I ask you pray tell what negotiations achieved?---even you admit the annexation of south eastern Ukraine and a land corridor to Crimea is a done deal---right that is what you actually admitted in your comments.

Negotiations achieved what?
1. timely turnover of all POWs---that was not achieved and why--the separatists want de facto results on the ground under protection of Russian troops
2. even you stated they have achieved what they wanted ie what Russia wanted--a "New Russia" achieved via the Putin Doctrine

Noticed today that the NPR announced they are going to the Ruble and both Republics stated yesterday they will not honor the agreement and they will be both independent==at first they even denied signing the agreement until their signatures were released.

3. Russian troops especially the 15th Peacekeeping Brigade are now fully inside south eastern Ukraine and there is an old fisher wifes tale--were the Russian Army plants itself they never seem to leave ask eastern Europe at the end of WW2 or ask Moldavia or Georgia since 2008.

AP--take heed of this comment and ask yourself a "rational and or irrational statement"?

#Ukraine's DM had previously said that #Russia threatened to use tactical nukes. His deputy now says Russian nuclear artillery is in Ukraine.

By the way I did not post the net comment that the Russian 240mm self propelled mortar system that is in fact capable of firing a tactical 2KT nuclear weapon has now been seen inside the eastern Ukraine--three of them by the way.

NOW ask yourself has NATO moved any strategic and or tactical nuclear weapons systems up to the border of Russian in say the last 30 years--no.

AP--widen your thinking---you field of vision is to narrow.

And your comments are going in circles because of the narrow vision.

AP--if you read a recent comment of mine---I do believe that since the south east Donbas is now fully annexed and that it will never go back to the Ukraine---it is time to cut it off from the main Ukraine.

NOTICE this from the net this morning--interesting comment.
#Breaking Ukr. border guards are building a "boundary line" between the occupied areas and the "peaceful" parts of Donbas.

But it takes the Ukraine to hold onto the ports of Mariupol and Odessa to remain an economic viable state--BUT even Russia sees that thus the drive to take Mariupol and Odessa to create a land bridge to the Crimea.

Without the two ports Ukraine will remain weak and thus dependent on Russia.

And it achieves again the Putin Doctrine.

BUT cutting the south eastern regions off brings a massive new chance for the Ukraine---

1. they do not have to rebuild what the Russians and separatists destroyed
2. gives them a chance to build an new 21st economy which they have a massively capable young generation ready for that
3. easier to integration in the EU and NATO
4. easier to rebuild their military on the NATO model
5. does away with the "frozen model" that Russia needs in order to control/influence the Ukraine
6. take in all Ukrainians who want to come over--remember the ethnic Russian population was only 39-40-% of the actual Donbas population
7. by cutting the region then Ukraine can sell them water, electricity, and stop any economic payments to those that wish to reside in the New Russia--tons in money savings for the Ukraine--just as they did in the Crimea
8. and here is the beauty--they can take Russia to the international courts and demands repayments for years to come on what Russia illegally annexed/sized/nationalized

Let Russia support another "failed state" which is really what the Crimea is now---economically they cannot even support the Crimea even with all their bluster during the annexation after Russia stated they were going to do for them as the "benefits" in joining the RF.

There was a small economic comment via the net the other day---no coal is being mined and delivered right now from the Donbas region--so the Ukraine went out and purchased South African coal at 85 USD per ton vs the 300 USD per ton they were paying for Donbas coal.

NOW that AP is a pure capitalist decision and an easy one to make if you ask me---

Lastly---if the south east annexation remains in place as does the Crimea then in fact the sanctions remain in place and the longer they go on the more damage to the Russian economy sitting it back 20-30 years---and that is power politics.

ON top of the sinking oil prices right now--signals massive economic challenges for the Russian economy which has been seen in the last two days of economic press releases coming out of Moscow.

Win win for the Ukraine if you ask me---their President just has to sell it that way.

See AP sometimes economic warfare can in fact take the place of actual boots on the ground warfare.

BUT here is the problem western leaders could not realize that fast enough and were played well by Putin--and wasted five months which is a lifetime in politics.

kaur
09-16-2014, 12:47 PM
Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin
By John J. Mearsheimer
FROM OUR SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2014 ISSUE


According to the prevailing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis can be blamed almost entirely on Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin, the argument goes, annexed Crimea out of a long-standing desire to resuscitate the Soviet empire, and he may eventually go after the rest of Ukraine, as well as other countries in eastern Europe. In this view, the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 merely provided a pretext for Putin’s decision to order Russian forces to seize part of Ukraine.

But this account is wrong: ...

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine-crisis-is-the-wests-fault

AmericanPride
09-16-2014, 03:58 PM
the Ukrainian President is only a bit player in a side show.


Actually, as the head of state of one of the belligerents in the conflict, he's one of the principal actors. The other major player in Kiev politics at this moment is unabashedly pro-West (and pro-war) Prime Minister Yatsenyuk who opposes the terms of Poroshenko's proposal. So how that plays out will have significant consequences both for Ukraine's political stability as well as its security. Your obsession with Russia's political-military strategy is bordering on shrill.


The Ukraine was picked in order to drive the above three points nothing more nothing less.

Ukraine was 'picked' because following the collapse of the Yanukoyvch government and the triump of the Maiden Revolution, Russia had few non-military options to rapidly and decisively restore its leverage in the country. That the conflict has now escalated from Ukraine's internal politics to broader East-West relations is an indicator of a failure in conflict management in Washington, Moscow, and the European capitals.


If you go back to my comments from the very beginning--you would have seen a strong demand for immediate and hard sanctions of the type that has finally been passed

There is no evidence that the sanctions have or will reverse Russia's political gains in Ukraine. Sanctions have not liberated the Donbas or defeated the pro-Russian paramilitaries operating in the region. The historical data suggests that sanctions rarely have the effect of changing a state's foreign policy. The problem with sanctions is that over time their utility diminishes as states adapt to the new circumstances.


So again I ask you pray tell what negotiations achieved?---even you admit the annexation of south eastern Ukraine and a land corridor to Crimea is a done deal---right that is what you actually admitted in your comments.

Negotiations have achieved the cessation of Ukraine's bloody hemorrhaging of territory and treasure which would have continued otherwise. Is your alternative to a negotiated settlement perpetual conflict between Ukraine and Russia?


even you stated they have achieved what they wanted ie what Russia wanted--a "New Russia" achieved via the Putin Doctrine


Yep - and I have stated from the start that the West and Ukraine were severely unprepared for Russia's campaign. When it's recognized that one is in a losing position and can't catch up without significant losses, it's better to make a quick end of it and cut your losses. Every loss in pursuit of defeat is a waste.


AP--if you read a recent comment of mine---I do believe that since the south east Donbas is now fully annexed and that it will never go back to the Ukraine---it is time to cut it off from the main Ukraine.

And how will that be managed with a negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to determine the terms?


1. they do not have to rebuild what the Russians and separatists destroyed
2. gives them a chance to build an new 21st economy which they have a massively capable young generation ready for that
3. easier to integration in the EU and NATO
4. easier to rebuild their military on the NATO model
5. does away with the "frozen model" that Russia needs in order to control/influence the Ukraine
6. take in all Ukrainians who want to come over--remember the ethnic Russian population was only 39-40-% of the actual Donbas population
7. by cutting the region then Ukraine can sell them water, electricity, and stop any economic payments to those that wish to reside in the New Russia--tons in money savings for the Ukraine--just as they did in the Crimea
8. and here is the beauty--they can take Russia to the international courts and demands repayments for years to come on what Russia illegally annexed/sized/nationalized


Looks like you read Alexander Motyl's Foreign Affairs article. But it's interesting now that after your many months of your crusade to demonize Russia, you are willing to write off eastern Ukraine and Crimea and hand it over to them in the name of "realpolitik". Had the pro-West faction in Ukraine's government negotiated an end to Ukraine's internal turmoil in say November, March, or April, Ukraine would not be in this position in the first place.


Win win for the Ukraine if you ask me---their President just has to sell it that way

So, Ukraine losing a war, a third of its territory, thousands of lives, and millions of dollars is a "win win"? Now that's an "alternate state of reality". :rolleyes:


BUT here is the problem western leaders could not realize that fast enough and were played well by Putin--and wasted five months which is a lifetime in politics.

Yep - there were opportunities in November, March, and April to resolve this conflict before Russia committed itself fully to this outcome.


AP--you write about what was and or was not "negotiated" as if something positive was basically achieved in Minsk.

Yes - the positive that was "basically achieved" was averting total disaster for Ukraine.

OUTLAW 09
09-16-2014, 04:09 PM
AP--a new question for you---can Putin achieve his "New Russia" dream and annexation before the Russian economy tanks and his population starts to question his world of reality vs their's?

The sentence is this article is "telling"---do not "panic" Russian population we have a plan........

Deputy foreign minister Alexei Moiseyev sought to put on a brave face, saying authorities were taking steps to curb inflation.

"Don't panic," he said on Tuesday

http://news.yahoo.com/ruble-plunges-sharply-against-euro-dollar-110647010.html

OUTLAW 09
09-16-2014, 04:29 PM
Actually, as the head of state of one of the belligerents in the conflict, he's one of the principal actors. The other major player in Kiev politics at this moment is unabashedly pro-West (and pro-war) Prime Minister Yatsenyuk who opposes the terms of Poroshenko's proposal. So how that plays out will have significant consequences both for Ukraine's political stability as well as its security. Your obsession with Russia's political-military strategy is bordering on shrill.



Ukraine was 'picked' because following the collapse of the Yanukoyvch government and the triump of the Maiden Revolution, Russia had few non-military options to rapidly and decisively restore its leverage in the country. That the conflict has now escalated from Ukraine's internal politics to broader East-West relations is an indicator of a failure in conflict management in Washington, Moscow, and the European capitals.



There is no evidence that the sanctions have or will reverse Russia's political gains in Ukraine. Sanctions have not liberated the Donbas or defeated the pro-Russian paramilitaries operating in the region. The historical data suggests that sanctions rarely have the effect of changing a state's foreign policy. The problem with sanctions is that over time their utility diminishes as states adapt to the new circumstances.



Negotiations have achieved the cessation of Ukraine's bloody hemorrhaging of territory and treasure which would have continued otherwise. Is your alternative to a negotiated settlement perpetual conflict between Ukraine and Russia?



Yep - and I have stated from the start that the West and Ukraine were severely unprepared for Russia's campaign. When it's recognized that one is in a losing position and can't catch up without significant losses, it's better to make a quick end of it and cut your losses. Every loss in pursuit of defeat is a waste.



And how will that be managed with a negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to determine the terms?



Looks like you read Alexander Motyl's Foreign Affairs article. But it's interesting now that after your many months of your crusade to demonize Russia, you are willing to write off eastern Ukraine and Crimea and hand it over to them in the name of "realpolitik". Had the pro-West faction in Ukraine's government negotiated an end to Ukraine's internal turmoil in say November, March, or April, Ukraine would not be in this position in the first place.



So, Ukraine losing a war, a third of its territory, thousands of lives, and millions of dollars is a "win win"? Now that's an "alternate state of reality". :rolleyes:



Yep - there were opportunities in November, March, and April to resolve this conflict before Russia committed itself fully to this outcome.



Yes - the positive that was "basically achieved" was averting total disaster for Ukraine.

AP---will give you something to think about that is not being talked about in most places---BY the way--check the Russian economy thread here at SWJ---yes the sanctions are in fact deeply hurting right now and their economy is slowly gaining in free fall mode.

JUST how much as the Ukrainian President out "Putined" Putin in his strategies?

Take a good look at his moves and you will see at every turn he has out foxed Putin's moves and stayed one step ahead starting with the first "ceasefire" that held all of five days before the Ukraine went into their ATO campaign.

I would argue that the ATO was carried by the Independent BNs and selected UA/NG units (while a bulk of the Army retrained and refitted and built a second defense line series) and although basically a rag tag army they were actually quite successful and "drove" Putin to react placing Putin further into the sanction regimes that are indeed hurting and further isolating Russia.

I would argue that the Ukrainians wanted Putin to fully commit since they knew he was leaning in that direction from the beginning as many in the west thought he was not leaning towards as they stated his real goal was the Crimea not eastern Ukraine--how wrong was that?

And if one thinks about it--was Russia able to stop the EU Assoc Agreement from being signed---not really, has he stopped NATO and the Ukraine from getting closer together--no, has he stopped other NATO countries from rearming/training the UA--no and he rejuvenated NATO and the Baltics/Poland---yes he has---has he rejuvenated the EU --most certainly. Has he in fact achieved anything on the previous list of three items I posted to you? Nothing, nada, nichts. Has he "defeated" western values and or the EU--nothing, nada, nichts.

And what has Putin achieved---3500 killed Russian soldiers and Russian mercenaries, his economy truly faltering and sinking, he is actually quite isolated from the global community, and he now has to support his "fellow Russians" in all the enclaves and Crimea--does that sound like a really really major political "win"? And he has to deal with the "unintended consequences" ie Cossacks "claiming their own state inside the "New Russia" and that is a major problem--not Ukrainians' problem--- but Putin's.

Have you ever thought that the Ukrainian strategy has been from the beginning to fully isolate and heavily damage the Russian economy--meaning you can annex me and take territory from me but in the end you will pay a far higher price and in the end I come out the other end of the tunnel--smaller maybe but definitely independent from Russia once and for all and you will need 20 or more years to recover.

That is not a negotiation driven concept ---it is a interesting strategy driven end state concept with at least four orders of effects factored into the strategy end state.

This is a brilliant chess game at the highest level between Putin and the Ukrainian President.

Now if the mercenaries turn down the Russian supported, propagandized, and signed agreement Putin the Ukraine has two choices 1) ditch the east and let Putin support basically support another failed state for the whole world to see just how failed it is and 2) the Ukraine moves on and gains EU/NATO status--in both instances again Putin loses. And who gets blamed for the failure of the new eastern laws--the current Rada which is basically pro Russia not the new to be elected Rada.

Then the Ukraine can turn to the entire world and honestly state---"we tried" and you now can see what Putin/Russia really is a "fascist neo imperialist country" bent on rebuilding the Soviet Union under the guise of the Putin Doctrine. We told you all that countless times and then they go nuclear which they have the capacity to do and no one in the EU could actually deny them that move based on the Russian actions the past six months.

So again the question---was "negotiations" actually just a smoke screen to achieve a longer term strategy that has a defined end state--not as you indicate "negotiations as the means" to get to an end. And no a smoke screen is not "means". The Russian term for "smokescreen" is "camouflage".

So the Ukrainians allowed the "negotiations to "camouflage" their true intentions and Putin jumped on it--notice he has said virtually nothing about it--only his FM is saying anything if at all--they fully realize now what they have signed up for.

You will notice--many of the current Rada members that agreed to the new eastern laws passed today come from the older Russian leaning parties thus carry the burden of failure if all goes south---not the President nor the Maidan groups.

Still say though is headed to Odessa as Putin is way to committed now or he risks an overall total failure especially since the sanctions are hitting hard now if he cannot get something for the Crimea out of this adventure.

You did notice that Russia has virtually nothing on the sanctions side to hit back with and even some Duma members say what is being proposed hurts Russians not the EU/US.

That AP is a surprising new tone from Duma me members and that "new thinking" did not come from "negotiations" but from a hefty sanctions regine.

Think about it?

OUTLAW 09
09-16-2014, 05:12 PM
AP--you still have not recognized just how much Russia is a "fascist" state and how that factors into the Ukrainian events and Putin's views towards the west.

Here is one the most "fascist" of the Russian firebrands that has solid influence over Putin and his inner circle--from an interview of his in April 2014--again notice the time it was given--April 2014.

Shame you do not speak Russian. he basically is calling for Russia to conquer the rest of Europe---now my friend again is that statement "rational and or irrational" and or is he in "an altered state of reality"?

Alexander Dugin: Russland muss Europa erobern:

http://youtu.be/e-oH58VA5Rw?list=LLZWD8c1F2hhPr5enz2DvpFQ …

AmericanPride
09-16-2014, 08:35 PM
Outlaw -

Ukraine's Rada passed the law granting (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/world/europe/ukraine-west-europe-russia.html?_r=0) limited autonomy to the separatist regions. Timing is of course an important element in negotiating an end to conflicts:


Gennady Tsipkalov, the latest prime minister of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic, said in a posting on a Russian social media site, Vkontacte, that the special status provided by the law might have been enough if it had been offered when the rebellion first erupted in April. But he said it was no longer sufficient because of the number of people who had since died in the fighting.


I would argue that the Ukrainians wanted Putin to fully commit since they knew he was leaning in that direction

It's interesting that you propose surrendering the Donbas to the Russians despite your rhetoric about Putin wanting to revive the Soviet Union - and if that was the play from the beginning, are you suggesting that the Ukrainians intentionally baited Russia to invade, cause over a billion dollars in damages, and kill thousands of Ukrainians? Is that really the kind of government we want in Ukraine and a part of the EU and NATO? You are twisting yourself into a pretzel in trying to maintain your argument that Russia is operating in an "altered state of reality".

OUTLAW 09
09-16-2014, 09:02 PM
Outlaw -

Ukraine's Rada passed the law granting (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/world/europe/ukraine-west-europe-russia.html?_r=0) limited autonomy to the separatist regions. Timing is of course an important element in negotiating an end to conflicts:





It's interesting that you propose surrendering the Donbas to the Russians despite your rhetoric about Putin wanting to revive the Soviet Union - and if that was the play from the beginning, are you suggesting that the Ukrainians intentionally baited Russia to invade, cause over a billion dollars in damages, and kill thousands of Ukrainians? Is that really the kind of government we want in Ukraine and a part of the EU and NATO? You are twisting yourself into a pretzel in trying to maintain your argument that Russia is operating in an "altered state of reality".


AP---again your statements tend to be off---you stated the sanctions were not working but they are if you read this. See AP after the Crimea the Ukrainians fully understood Putin was going into the east and you yourself doubted it when I said here he was going.

Answer a simple question---then why was the heavy fighting done by the Independent BNs, the Airborne and SF units and just two Mech Brigades when the Ukrainians could have thrown over 25,000 fighters against just under 12K mercenaries at the height of the fighting before the Russians stepped in. Look at the Ukrainian loses and wounded numbers versus what was being sent by coffins back to Russia---the numbers are extremely lopsided if one is tracking them ---favoring the UA. The UA/NG and Independents never had more than 3 to 4K in the actual fighting at any one time.

Ask yourself the simple question --do you feel the Ukrainians in their push to completely throw out the mercenaries where not constantly assessing the Russian army units on their borders?--if you felt they were not then you do not fully understand their intel abilities--remember they were telling the US/EU and the world the Russians were in far higher numbers on the borders long before NATO admitted the same thing. They also stated for months that Russian SF/GRU units were inside the Ukraine as well but no one else seemed to notice it nor actually did they care.

Ask yourself again the simple question ---why did the previous Ukrainian president drive the Ukrainian army into the ground with so little budget and no new equipment? Why was the UA being systematically destroyed by all previous Ukrainian presidents? Why was the SBU so undermined by the FSB/GRU?---and the Russian move on the Ukraine was what just thought about in the last what six months?--Come on AP think.

There was at the beginning of the Crimea event which you did not participate in the initial comments a Russian former intel FSB type who now resides in London who openly stated the Crimea plans were there years in advance and had to just be pulled and implemented--that easy AP. So into the eastern Ukraine was what just a random plan hastily but together just on short notice?--come on AP think.

The Russian military never does anything on short notice without a long planning cycle that is just how they function these days---actually similar to the Red Army days in their planning cycles--know personally about that as I have planned along side their Brigade staffs in 2012/2013.

Remember the UA as well had little heavy anti tank abilities as well as limited air assets and most of that was shot down.

So if I know all of that in advance one can figure where the fighting is going to end up--so why not drive the costs up for Russia if you sense you cannot hold them back---and here is the catch that you seem to not get--even with a "negotiated agreement" there is no mechanism to force Russian troops back out of the east. You did notice that the US Ambassador to NATO stated exactly that today---the Russians must leave and their equipment must leave---but there is no mechanism to force them out other than sanctions--so much for "negotiations".

Based on your thinking then ask the question just why did the Ukrainian president go all in after the first failed ceasefire---he could have stopped then and rolled over---notice AP he did neither--so ask the question ---why not?"

Here is what you are not seeing about the Ukrainian "negotiations" and todays eastern laws--they made it contingent upon full acceptance by the separatists---if they reject any part then the agreement--then it is off, the fighting starts again, and Putin catches all the heat plus then more sanctions. So ask the question why was that clause placed into the agreement or better why did Putin allow it?

Ever ask the new simple question--why did Putin agree to that concept--he needs an urgent off ramp --remember the large first series of dead Russian bodies were starting to come back just as Minsk occurred. He was suckered into the east and now he has to get out before his economy tanks for good.

AP---you have noticed that there is virtually no comments in the Russian TV or via press releases by Putin since the Minsk agreements---this has been the longest silence phase by him in years--wonder why?

By the way the Russian economy is seriously tanking --far faster than many in the West and even Putin's inner circle and the central bank ever assumed would happen---so what was that comment again on sanctions not working?

Ruble Drops to Record as Russia Sanctions Fuel Dollar Shortage

By Vladimir Kuznetsov and Ksenia Galouchko Sep 16, 2014 11:48 AM ET

The ruble fell to a record for a fourth day as sanctions over the Ukraine crisis exacerbated a foreign-currency shortage in Russia, while the government canceled its ninth straight debt sale. Stocks advanced.

The exchange rate tumbled 0.9 percent to 43.8454 against the central bank’s dollar-euro basket at 7:10 p.m. in Moscow, depreciating for a seventh day to a record low. That’s within 56 kopeks of 44.40, the level that would trigger the central bank to intervene. The Micex Index climbed 1.6 percent to a two-month high, led by OAO Sberbank, the nation’s biggest lender, which was named under expanded U.S. sanctions last week.

Foreign-currency liquidity has come under pressure as the European Union and U.S. imposed new penalties to curtail access of Russian companies to their debt markets. The one-week dollar-ruble swap rate traded at the widest discount to the central bank’s main interest rate in six months today, signaling traders are willing to pay a premium for the U.S. currency.

“Sanctions and closed access to foreign-exchange liquidity from the West” is feeding demand for dollars, Dmitry Polevoy, the chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at ING Groep NV in Moscow, said in an e-mailed note. “The market is now targeting the upper boundary of the ruble corridor at 44.40.”

The ruble, which has lost 15 percent of its value against the U.S. currency this year, depreciated as much as 1.4 percent to 38.9300 per dollar, before trading at 38.7145. It lost 1 percent versus the euro.

Dollar Shortage

The implied yield on a one-week swap fell for a third day to 6.43 percent, taking the spread over the central bank interest rate to minus 157 basis points, compared with minus 105 basis points yesterday.

Foreign-exchange liquidity has “virtually dried out,” with volumes sinking to about $100 million per day, compared with $1 billion to $2 billion previously, according to Natalia Orlova, the chief economist for OAO Alfa Bank in Moscow.
The currency pared declines after Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev said the ministry and central bank were discussing ways to alleviate the “structural” shortage of foreign currency in the market.

“An injection of dollar liquidity by the central bank could push the ruble higher, back to 38 versus the dollar,” Moscow-based Sberbank CIB analyst Iskander Abdullaev said by e-mail.

Auction Pulled

Companies have $22 billion in dollar-denominated payments to make in September and local banks are “anticipating demand for hard currency from retailers and accumulating additional dollar liquidity,” Abdullaev said.

“The geopolitical background remains unstable,” Dmitriy Gritskevich, an analyst at OAO Promsvyazbank, said in an e-mailed note. The ruble may move “without any serious obstacles” straight to the upper limit of the dollar-euro basket, he said.

Government bonds due in February 2027 climbed, sending the yield down four basis points to 9.66 percent, trimming the increase since President Vladimir Putin started his incursion into Ukraine’s Crimea region in March to 130 basis points. The Finance Ministry cited “unfavorable” market conditions today for pulling a domestic bond auction.

Tougher penalties were announced last week even amid a cease-fire between pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and the government in Kiev, stoking concern Russia would retaliate with measures of its own and deepen the six-month crisis.

Stocks rose after Ukraine’s parliament approved a law giving special status to two regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists. That boosted optimism the crisis may ease and sanctions would be lifted, Vadim Bit-Avragim, who helps oversee about $4.1 billion at Kapital Asset Management LLC in Moscow, said by phone.

OUTLAW 09
09-16-2014, 09:47 PM
Notice how the Russians attempted up through yesterday to change the EU Association agreements with the Ukraine.

Russia got a one year delay in order to "fix" to their side of the Russian customs zone so they could not argue later they are being hurt by the EU agreement--the Ukraine gest 8B Euros to balance out the damage done by the delay until Dec 2015.

So was it a win for Russia?

Letter from Min.Ulyukaev to Commissioner De Gucht exposing Russia's true intentions vis-a-vis the DCFTA with Ukraine

pic.twitter.com/kM17iuSsPG

OUTLAW 09
09-17-2014, 07:51 AM
There is an interesting shift now ongoing in Russian policy--ie making the Putin Doctrine which means Russia has the inherent right to interfere with any country that has any minority of Russian language speakers--notice not true ethnic but language speakers.

This morning via RIA--the Russian FM is now moving the argument to the inherent right to defend it's "national security"--one if in a rational world would say--defending "national security" is really simple if one declares yes we are in the Ukraine and yes we are pulling out by day X--but no Russia triples down.

NOTE: Russia has come full swing and is now declaring our "national security" is really what we declare it to be and if that involved interfering in a sovereign country so be it.

For today RIA:

MOSCOW, September 17 (RIA Novosti) – Continuing sanction pressure on Russia will only deteriorate the Ukrainian crisis, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

NOTE: just how many times has the US and the EU formerly stated that if Russia truly suspends the weapons and troops into the Ukraine and truly seals their border sanctions come off the table---if AP is correct at least five times in the last six months.

“It is obvious that the continuation of sanction pressure on Russia will not help resolve the internal crisis in Ukraine but will rather deepen the confrontation and complicate dialogue,” Lavrov said in an interview with El Pais newspaper published on Wednesday.

NOTE:---again the FM absolutely does not discuss the potential of Russian involvement via troops and weapons.

The minister stressed that Russia reserves the right to take measures to protect its legitimate interests, including in the sphere of national security.

OUTLAW 09
09-17-2014, 08:02 AM
AP--another example of the "altered state of reality" in Russian FM comments:

If we use the if and then statements one could build an excellent if--IF the Russians had actually admitted their support of weapons, money and troops to the mercenaries THEN they could have demanded on the ground a full investigation of the MH17 downing.

But because they have never and will never admit that THEN this kind of statement is released WHEN the entire world knows they were involved.

That is "altered thinking"--actually it proves they are simply trapped in their own propaganda now and cannot come out of it as it would means "failure" and "failure" is not a Putin word these days.

MOSCOW, September 17 (RIA Novosti) – Moscow insists on a proper investigation of a Malaysian plane crash in Ukraine that would reveal real causes of the incident, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

“The truth must be found. We decisively insist on that considering that some countries do not show particular enthusiasm over the transparent and accountable investigation,” Lavrov said in an interview with Spanish El Pais newspaper published on Wednesday.

NOTE: the entire world is awaiting Russian admission since , videos of the Buk exist with identification of the Russian Buk unit, voice intercepts exist, eye witnesses exist, fragments of the warhead were found in the bodies, and the Dutch crash investigators stated it was downed by a "likely" ground to air missile. The only thing missing is Russian acceptance for responsibility. And yet Russia keeps putting out these statements and that is not "altered reality"?

“In light of a high profile of the tragedy on the global scale, we believe that such an investigation is vital not only for establishing the true causes of the crash and bringing those responsible to justice. It is also vital for maintaining global peace and security,” the minister said.

OUTLAW 09
09-17-2014, 08:11 AM
Outlaw -

Poroshenko provided clarity on what he is prepared to offer (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/heavy-fighting-between-ukrainian-forces-and-pro-russian-rebels-over-the-weekend/2014/09/15/9f522a6c-1a27-4f3a-8c6a-5432c92911a3_story.html) the separatists in his negotiations to end the conflict:



So, there will be two major issues: (1) can Poroshenko sell this to the hard-liners in his own parliament and (2) does Russia have sufficient control over the separatists to enforce their compliance pending an agreement? Of course, answers to both questions will seriously call into question the validity of your arguments about Russia's goals, 'rationality', and so-called "altered state of reality". Poroshenko has already delayed Ukraine's treaty with the EU - so it appears that the "irrational" "rogue" Russian state is getting one over on everybody. How are those sanctions doing by the way? Any indication that it will reverse Russian's gains any time soon?

So after all the fighting and destruction, it appears that Kiev is willing to offer the separatists what they had demanded from the very beginning.

AP--notice the sanctions are in fact hitting the Russian economy---the core question is --will Russian fascist advisors around Putin "realize" the connection between their actions and the tanking Russian economy brought on by their own actions.

Based on how fascism feeds and feeds on it's own propaganda I do not see that happening --a that means "failure" in a fascist's eyes.

From Interfax today---another "do no panic statement"

09:21 Economy minister doesn't rule out Russia rating downgrade, but urges calm

Russian leadership is now trapped by their own fascist propaganda and cannot break the cycle to think "rationally" which is where they should have been about four exit ramps ago that was offered to them.

OUTLAW 09
09-17-2014, 08:47 AM
Are sanctions working?---this tends to prove they are in fact hitting Russia hard--will they change Russia's stance---check the last sentence and one sees the economy will truly tank before Putin accepts "failure".

From NYTs 17 Sept.

MOSCOW — President Obama has warned Russia that “there will be costs” for its policies in Ukraine. European leaders and the head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have done the same.

On Tuesday, an influential figure in the Russian political elite and a longtime aide to President Vladimir V. Putin drove home this argument.

European Union and American sanctions have pushed Russia to a tipping point between growth and recession, Aleksei L. Kudrin, a former finance minister, told an audience of Western executives at a conference in Moscow hosted by the American chamber of commerce. Mr. Kudrin then outlined, in unvarnished and detailed terms, what awaits Russia if a fragile cease-fire in the war in eastern Ukraine breaks down: possibily a contraction over 5 percent lasting one to two years.

“The ceasefire is important for everybody, and for Russia most of all,” Mr. Kudrin said. “We should study these consequences, and avoid a worsening of the situation.”

Already, Mr. Kudrin said, sanctions have trimmed about 1 percent from Russia’s $2 trillion gross domestic product this year, with the effects now being felt beyond the tight coterie of businessmen deemed close to President Putin who first felt the sting. Economic growth slowed to what Citigroup projects will be 0.5 percent this year. Since January, $110 billion has left Russia as capital flight.

Aleksei L. Kudrin, a former finance chief for Russia, said sanctions have trimmed about 1 percent from Russia’s $2 trillion gross domestic product this year. Credit Olga Maltseva/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Faint consumer demand caused car and other durable goods sales to contract. Rosneft, the state oil company has asked for a government bailout. Yevraziya, a chain of sushi restaurants, closed in Moscow after the price of salmon doubled.

Bob Foresman, the chief executive of Barclays bank in Russia, in a speech to the gathering cited a survey of businessmen’s views on the Russian economy, highlighting phrases like “fatigue,” “caution,” “false hope” and “false dawn.”

In Ukraine this week, Separatist gunmen and the Ukrainian army are exchanging artillery fire daily over military objectives like a regional airport and a strategic village, Debaltsevo, northeast of Donetsk, where Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observers came under fire Sunday.

If European leaders decide the cease-fire has failed, they have vowed to leave in place financial and oil industry sanctions imposed last week, rather than repeal them. That, Mr. Kudrin said, would stall the Russian economy with zero growth in 2015, or push it into a mild recession.

If the European Union and United States escalate sanctions on the banking sector by prohibiting Russian banks from accessing SWIFT, the international secure money transfer system, the Russian economy will go into deep recession with a contraction of at least 5 percent lasting one or two years, Mr. Kudrin said.

Turning inward and relying on a revival of domestic manufacturing and agriculture helped by the weakening ruble, the plan to fortify the Russian economy of so-called import substitution outlined by an acting deputy prime minister who also spoke at the gathering, is unrealistic, Mr. Kudrin suggested.

Soft-spoken and with a wry sense of humor, Mr. Kudrin seems at times to almost take pleasure in pointing out the dismal realities of the global economy, when nobody else here will.

Europe and the United States, the governments imposing sanctions on Russia, spend about $1.5 trillion on research and development annually, while Russia spends $20 billion, he noted. As such, Russia can never hope to replicate a wide range of these nations’ imported goods. The Russian government should designate only select niches of the economy for this policy, he said.

The Russian leadership, he said, understands the costs but may be willing to pay them. Earlier, he described the economic blow as the price for Russia having a foreign policy independent of the United States.

“At a minimum, two or three years are needed to resolve the questions,” of the Ukraine crisis, he said, even if no escalation takes place.

“Until then, we won’t know what investment climate we have and the final state of our relations with the West,” he added, and the Russian economy will be in a “period of instability.”

Mr. Kudrin, whose ties to Mr. Putin stretch back two decades to the city hall of St. Petersburg, where both worked, is retired from government. His is a rare public voice of a liberal wing of the Russian elite on the mounting economic costs of the war and sanctions. Kremlin watchers, though, are divided on whether such sentiments carry any weight now with Mr. Putin.

One attendee at the conference questioned whether the Kremlin, already hurt by sanctions, sees no point in changing its behavior in Ukraine, citing Winston Churchill saying “If you’re going through hell keep going.”

davidbfpo
09-17-2014, 11:50 AM
For reasons I cannot now recall excatly, possibly his writing before the Cold War ended, I read what Timothy Garton-Ash says on Eastern Europe and Russia:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/ukraine-close-door-vladimir-putin-europe-russia

The sub-title is rather ambitiious I fear for Europe, at least it is a coherent package:
Europe can resolve this crisis and counter Russia’s aggression, but it needs a clear 10-year plan

A sample passage:
To have a plan, we Europeans must know what we are responding to. This is difficult, since Putin is in the erratic, hubristic mental state typical of your late-period autocrat. Nonetheless, my best guess is that what he currently aims to do is to keep southeastern Ukraine in such a state of turmoil, divided power and Russian influence that the country as a whole cannot consolidate its position as a sovereign, functioning state – let alone move closer to the EU and Nato. Crucial to this strategy is a porous Russian-Ukrainian frontier, through which Russian arms and agitators can move at will.

OUTLAW 09
09-17-2014, 11:57 AM
AP---here is the perfect reason why your "concept of negotiations" will never work with any event tied to Russia in the current 21st century.

During the Cold War days one could negotiate simply because there were a set of implicit rules that both sides fully understood and balanced against MAD in the background---that kept really any overt hostilities from breaking out with the exception of Korea and we could kick in say Viet Nam---although that did not stop the "wars of national liberation" as being the flash points between the Cold Warriors from occurring.

Even during say the Berlin Wall 61, Hungary 56 and then the Prague 68 invasion and then Poland in the 80s the West basically used rhetoric to score points-- but fully understood the spheres of influence draw up in Yalta.

That was implied as it was based on Yalta---but again Yalta was drawn up without asking say Poland, Czechoslovakia and or the Baltics what they wanted after being freed from Hitler. I did link to a comment indicating the Russians would actually prefer to have a new meeting in Yalta to reestablish the boundaries again.

Since the Wall 1990 Yalta no longer existed nor was ever referred to again by both sides of the former Cold War as it was "understood" things had changed and Yalta could no longer be applied.

One cannot negotiate with Putin as those "implied rules of Yalta" simply no longer exist so therefore the ability to conduct negotiations based on something implied is gone. Especially in the face of say Putin who really wants Yalta "re-recognized" and used as his base of a world order/security sphere.

The reason I bring this up is again the article that I have previously linked to was picked up by The Moscow Times and rewritten with new emphasis.

The question the West has to urgently answer is the Russian use of a UW strategy at the low levels--

Will NATO trigger the Article Five on say constant ethnic Russian demos in the Baltics or an occasional takeover of a Baltic administration building as was seen in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Will NATO trigger Article Five if say these demos get violent and suddenly "local nationals" are on the streets waving weapons and shooting at local law enforcement?

Will NATO in the face of this hybrid warfare actually pull the trigger and go to full warfare over localized demos for say more Russian language rights?

NATO has yesterday stated it will towards Russia--- but will it truly go to warfare over language rights and perceived discrimination? But NATO then must redefine Article Five as it was envisioned as a instrument for conventional warfare not hybrid warfare--and that has not happened regardless of NATO rhetoric yesterday and Putin knows it.

You will see that tested in the coming months---if NATO does respond then Putin "understands the new implied rules" if NATO does not fully trigger Article Five then Putin is home free and clear and NATO is totally diminished as a security organization plane and simple.

Remember AP I did list one of the three Putin goals--one was diminishing NATO power and or destroying NATO for good.

The Putin Doctrine has been tested in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine and Putin knows it works--but does the US/EU/NATO get it--still not apparent.

Watch Putin's coming moves in Moldavia and the Baltics in order to test NATO resolve.

Check this article out--as it heads in that direction.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-sees-need-to-protect-russian-speakers-in-nato-baltic-states/507188.html

OUTLAW 09
09-17-2014, 01:11 PM
In all the Russian propaganda about the "poor discriminated ethnic Russians n the Donbas" we tend to forget the actual ethnic breakout of the region.

AND Russia has not once released actual examples of that "Russian discrimination in the Donbas region" other than just the standard Russian anti Ukrainian propaganda.

https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/512183386010812417/photo/1

56% of the region is actually Ukrainian and they will not be allowed to vote in the upcoming elections otherwise the region would go to the governing parties not the separatists unless the Crimea tactics are used --ballot stuffing and over counting of the same single ballot and or already X'ed ballots.

OUTLAW 09
09-17-2014, 01:23 PM
AP--if you read a recent comment of mine---I do believe that since the south east Donbas is now fully annexed and that it will never go back to the Ukraine---it is time to cut it off from the main Ukraine.

NOTICE this from the net this morning--interesting comment.
#Breaking Ukr. border guards are building a "boundary line" between the occupied areas and the "peaceful" parts of Donbas.

But it takes the Ukraine to hold onto the ports of Mariupol and Odessa to remain an economic viable state--BUT even Russia sees that thus the drive to take Mariupol and Odessa to create a land bridge to the Crimea.

Without the two ports Ukraine will remain weak and thus dependent on Russia.

And it achieves again the Putin Doctrine.

BUT cutting the south eastern regions off brings a massive new chance for the Ukraine---

1. they do not have to rebuild what the Russians and separatists destroyed
2. gives them a chance to build an new 21st economy which they have a massively capable young generation ready for that
3. easier to integration in the EU and NATO
4. easier to rebuild their military on the NATO model
5. does away with the "frozen model" that Russia needs in order to control/influence the Ukraine
6. take in all Ukrainians who want to come over--remember the ethnic Russian population was only 39-40-% of the actual Donbas population
7. by cutting the region then Ukraine can sell them water, electricity, and stop any economic payments to those that wish to reside in the New Russia--tons in money savings for the Ukraine--just as they did in the Crimea
8. and here is the beauty--they can take Russia to the international courts and demands repayments for years to come on what Russia illegally annexed/sized/nationalized

Let Russia support another "failed state" which is really what the Crimea is now---economically they cannot even support the Crimea even with all their bluster during the annexation after Russia stated they were going to do for them as the "benefits" in joining the RF.

There was a small economic comment via the net the other day---no coal is being mined and delivered right now from the Donbas region--so the Ukraine went out and purchased South African coal at 85 USD per ton vs the 300 USD per ton they were paying for Donbas coal.

NOW that AP is a pure capitalist decision and an easy one to make if you ask me---

Lastly---if the south east annexation remains in place as does the Crimea then in fact the sanctions remain in place and the longer they go on the more damage to the Russian economy sitting it back 20-30 years---and that is power politics.

ON top of the sinking oil prices right now--signals massive economic challenges for the Russian economy which has been seen in the last two days of economic press releases coming out of Moscow.

Win win for the Ukraine if you ask me---their President just has to sell it that way.

See AP sometimes economic warfare can in fact take the place of actual boots on the ground warfare.

BUT here is the problem western leaders could not realize that fast enough and were played well by Putin--and wasted five months which is a lifetime in politics.

AP--notice the Ukrainian "strategy at Minsk" is slowly closing in on Putin--meaning the Ukrainians delivered on everything they have committed to at Minsk and the Donesk leadership is now formally blocking everything to include the agreed to elections.

1. no completed POW exchanges
2. resumption of countless shelling attacks and ground attacks
3. even today OSCE formally stated the attacks are coming from the mercenaries
4. even after the eastern laws passed--will do no elections
5.proclaimed a "New Russia" Army
6. proclaimed "New Russia" regions independent

If Putin does not get his "separatists' onto the same sheet of music the Ukraine can new declare the agreements null and void due to the failure of Russia to ensure compliance to which they placed their signatures next to those of the separatists.

That then in turn moves an even harder range of EU sanctions against Russia which the EU has signaled further decisions for next week if nothing happens on the Russian side to move the agreements forward.

With the Russian economy dangling literally over the cliff on the sanctions you claim will not work--Putin's choice is now reign in the separatists and admit he has control over them and or literally allow the Russian economy to tank as not seen in the last 20 years.

His choice---he is going to truly tank the Russian economy--who wins in this chess game the Ukrainian president---who has to rebuild the Donbas--Russia and who cannot rebuild it--Russia.

AP--again did you notice not a single word out of Putin --not since his school visit and interview---everything is coming via his FM.

That is unusual to say the least.

OUTLAW 09
09-19-2014, 05:03 PM
For those that stated often here sanctions do not work.

And sanctions are not hurting the Russian oil/gas industry?---literally an flood of negative Interfax press releases today on the Russian oil industry.

Ouch...it seems the Russian oil industry is screaming for Russian CB support.. almost a panic tone in this stream of releases (actually an unusual event for Interfax)...from Interfax today

18:48
PRODUCING OWN OIL INDUSTRY EQUIPMENT WON'T RESOLVE BAN ON IMPORTS QUICKLY - MEDVEDEV

18:46
COLOSSAL MEANS NEEDED TO FULLY REVIVE PRODUCTION OF EQUIPMENT TO PRODUCE OIL IN RUSSIA - ALEKPEROV

18:46
TAX MANEUVER TO LEAD TO INCREASED TAX BURDEN ON OIL INDUSTRY - ALEKPEROV

18:45
LUKOIL NOT EXPECTING MONEY FROM ABROAD IN MEDIUM TERM, HAS TO DEPEND ENTIRELY ON ITSELF - ALEKPEROV

18:45
EFFORTS MUST BE MOBILIZED IMMEDIATELY TO PRODUCE HYDROFRACTURING EQUIPMENT IN RUSSIA - ALEKPEROV

18:43
LUKOIL'S ALEKPEROV SAYS 25% OF OIL PRODUCED BY FRACKING, BAN ON EQUIPMENT IMPORTS FOR THIS COULD HURT OIL INDUSTRY

kaur
09-19-2014, 10:56 PM
That Borissov worked for Russian Central Elections Commission 2007.

The assessment is likely to widen the growing rift between Russia and the West across a host of issues. Officials in Russia condemned it as politically motivated.

"It is a political order," said Igor Borisov, a member of Russia's Central Election Commission, speaking to the news agency Interfax about the observers' statements. "A political expediency dictated from overseas prevailed over the principles of objective monitoring which must be carried out by international observers."

The election campaign, including a prominent speech by President Vladimir Putin, was marked by accusations that the West was plotting to undermine the legitimacy of the vote in a bid to destabilize Russia. The charges are unlikely to abate with Russia's presidential campaign about to begin.

http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Russia-vote-not-fair-say-Europeans-3234884.php

OUTLAW 09
09-20-2014, 12:31 PM
It appears that Putin has achieved his fifth "frozen enclave" and fo all the claims that "negotiations" work--since Minsk yesterday the separatist occupied portions of the Donbas region are de facto "annexed" and nothing can change that outcome.

Now see fourth frozen conflict on border of Russia, and fifth such sustained by the armed forces of the Russian federation.

This outcome calls into full questioning of NATO's will to use the full scale Article 5 if "little green men" appear" in the Baltics. Yes SOCEUR talks a good line about doing it--but can be get 28 yes votes when it is fact staring them in the face?--doubt it.

Seriously doubt it--why because of they were afraid of a "war" in the Ukraine just why would they actually go to "war" in say Estonia and or Latvia which s far smaller and less populated than say the Ukraine.

This now achieves one of the main Putin goals---isolation and splitting of NATO and the US.

Notice virtually no responses out of the US after the Ukrainian President's visit and yet we are all over the map on how to "defeat" the IS which the last time I checked had no nuclear weapons and they did not issue nuclear strike threats as well.

In the end Putin has fully field tested his new Putin Doctrine, he has fully tested his new military strategy "New Generation Warfare" and he has even field tested a number of new weapons systems in actual combat--overall not bad.

And the West led by Germany and the US---not sure exactly what they achieved outside of talk and "negotiations".

OUTLAW 09
09-20-2014, 01:20 PM
Russia is truly in an "altered state of reality".

All this week they were selling the Scottish vote as a perfect example of what they did in the Crimea and the illegal voting done in eastern Ukraine.

Basically they wanted to prove to the world just how "legal" they had been.

But since the vote went against independence they have virtually "flipped out" in anger, that the vote was illegally done by the UK, that it was not transparent enough---and on and on then this today.

By the way the ballot stuffing video was actually taken in Russia in 2012---another great example of Russian information warfare.

This video doing the rounds of "Election Fraud in Scotland" does show ballot-stuffing, but it's from Russia in 2012:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9RCe55y0dw …

mirhond
09-20-2014, 01:46 PM
http://www.fixygen.ua/news/20140917/goskompaniya.html

Ukrainian public energy supply company "Tzentrenergo" is going to buy coal in Ruissia.

OUTLAW 09
09-20-2014, 02:01 PM
It appears that Putin has achieved his fifth "frozen enclave" and fo all the claims that "negotiations" work--since Minsk yesterday the separatist occupied portions of the Donbas region are de facto "annexed" and nothing can change that outcome.

Now see fourth frozen conflict on border of Russia, and fifth such sustained by the armed forces of the Russian federation.

This outcome calls into full questioning of NATO's will to use the full scale Article 5 if "little green men" appear" in the Baltics. Yes SOCEUR talks a good line about doing it--but can be get 28 yes votes when it is fact staring them in the face?--doubt it.

Seriously doubt it--why because of they were afraid of a "war" in the Ukraine just why would they actually go to "war" in say Estonia and or Latvia which s far smaller and less populated than say the Ukraine.

This now achieves one of the main Putin goals---isolation and splitting of NATO and the US.

Notice virtually no responses out of the US after the Ukrainian President's visit and yet we are all over the map on how to "defeat" the IS which the last time I checked had no nuclear weapons and they did not issue nuclear strike threats as well.

In the end Putin has fully field tested his new Putin Doctrine, he has fully tested his new military strategy "New Generation Warfare" and he has even field tested a number of new weapons systems in actual combat--overall not bad.

And the West led by Germany and the US---not sure exactly what they achieved outside of talk and "negotiations".

While this week and last week the Russian FM stated "Russia does not want to split the Ukraine" quote/unquote

THEN this Russian word usage come out today---and that is not splitting the Ukraine?

3d #aidconvoy has arrived in Donetsk, #Ukraine & delivered to "Donetsk Republic" not RedCross

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOhAN1pcLEA … pic.twitter.com/tP4oOn868L

kaur
09-21-2014, 08:02 PM
Window on Eurasia: Putin Cleverly Exploits Three Weaknesses of the West


Staunton, September 21 – Vladimir Putin appears stronger than he is because he is exploiting three weaknesses of the West: confusion among journalists of balance and objectivity, a desire to get a ceasefire rather than to repulse aggression, and a lack of will to punish Moscow politically and not just economically.



First, as has been true since the start of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, Putin has exploited the increasing proclivity of Western journalists to equate balance with objectivity. He and his minions have flooded the media with statements that are simply not true, but many Western outlets report them as part of the story, without identifying them as false or even questioning their veracity.


Second, Western governments approach every conflict as an occasion to get a ceasefire rather than to defeat aggression out of a belief that diplomacy alone can solve the problem and reach a solution. But there are at least two obvious problems with that, as the current Minsk Accords show.


And third, the West is only prepared to go so far in using its leverage. Its sanctions on Russia have been good as far as they have gone: they are hurting Moscow economically and financially. But the West has not been prepared to impose the kind of political sanctions that would affect the Kremlin more directly, apparently fearful of creating a longer that would call Western profits into question.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/09/window-on-eurasia-putin-cleverly.html

OUTLAW 09
09-25-2014, 06:08 PM
mirhond---seems the Russian ban on US chicken is not working as is the salmon ban these days.

The failure of Russian sanctions to affect prices or hurt U.S. producers is actually typical of such measures, political scientists say. Sanctions have a tendency to fail to affect prices for producers in the long term because they adjust to them.

"The issue with sanctions is that once they're imposed, firms adjust," said Bryan Early, a professor of political science at the University of Albany. "Producers who weren't expecting the sanctions are going to have an over-supply. They're probably going to have to drop their prices in the short run, but in the longer run, they'll adjust" their output.

The Russian market is worth about $300 million for U.S. poultry producers, and chicken represents the largest share of U.S. agriculture exports to Russia. But it's not as important for U.S. poultry producers as it once was.

The United States exports only 20 percent of the poultry it produces. And while at one time Russia constituted as much as 40 percent of poultry exports, in 2013 the U.S. shipped only 7 percent of exports there, according to James Sumner, president of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council. Sumner added that most of the product intended for Russia was able to find another home in other international markets.

OUTLAW 09
09-27-2014, 12:52 PM
I had written here several weeks ago that I felt that the Ukraine had in fact "suckered in Russia into the eastern Ukraine" and AP took offense at the comment.

(Moderator adds: The military aspects of this post are on the Ukraine military aspects thread (ends).

AND then now this article which came out this week fully indicating the rest of the Ukraine does not in fact need the Donbas region-something else I had argued and was rejected by AP--you will also notice the UA fought hard to keep key locations and that ties into this article as well.

In the article there is talk that the Ukraine needs the good coal quality of the Donbas region --BUT the Ukraine just concluded a delivery deal with South Africa for their coal at a price range of 85 USD per ton not the over prices 300 USD per ton from the Donbas.

So again was Russia "suckered in by the Ukraine"?

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-221-russia-threatens-to-cut-gas-supplies-while-buffer-zone-group-meets/

Analysts - Donbass Needs Ukraine For Economic Survival While Ukraine Can Survive Without The Occupied Territories.

16:20 (GMT)

Ukraine's Sirgis Inform argues in a lengthy article today that Ukraine would not suffer greatly, in economic terms at least, from the loss of the occupied areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

The article says that while the Russian backed separatists control the population centres of the regions, key economic hubs remain under government control.

For example, Mariupol accounts for 31-36% of the total industrial output of the Donetsk region. By comparison, the city of Donetsk produces half as much. Indeed Mariupol's two steelworks make up more than 70% of the region's steel production of which 62.6% was sold in exports in 2013.

Similarly, hydrocarbon resources are also distributed in the government's favour. The Yuzivska shale gas field (named after Donetsk founder John Hughes) lies, according to the article, in government-held territory. The article also states that more than 50% of the coal mined last year in the Donetsk region came from mines in government-controlled territory.

The situation in the Lugansk region is more complicated but still poor for the separatists with major chemical production areas and the largest power station in the region under government control in the north. That power station, the Luganskaya thermal power station, has, however, been shelled recently by Russian-backed forces, though it is reportedly still running.

German MP and member of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, Marieluise Beck, reported from Lugansk that Russian military engineers were laying power cables from the city to Russian territory, suggesting that Russia plans to provide the occupied city with independent power supplies.

According to the Sirgis Inform report, the region's sole iron and steel plant in separatist-held Alchevsk accounts for 46.5% of the Lugansk region's exports. However, according to the Lugansk Regional Administration, the plant was forced to cut production in the first half of July.

Destruction from the conflict has also forced the Stakhanov ferro-alloy plant and a number of other industrial plants in separatist-held areas to shut off production. According to the Regional Administration, the region's industrial production for 2014 will be only half of last year's, and, the report notes, this figure is largely due to the less affected output from the first half of this year.

Meanwhile, Sergei Kuznetsov writes in The Financial Times that the Donbass region cannot survive economically without staying in Ukraine.

He speaks to Aleksei Ryabchyn of the Ukraine Reforms Communications Taskforce, who says that the steel industry in the Donbass is largely dependent on the import of raw materials from other regions of Ukraine.

Kuznetsov writes:


The steel industry, for example, relies on raw materials from neighbouring regions in Ukraine. "In addition, it needs to import 10 to 15 per cent of its high-quality coal from the Rostov region [in Russia] to increase the quality of the metal," Ryabchyn says.

Most of the iron ore processed by plants in Donbas is supplied from the Kryviy Rih basin in the nearby Dnipropetrovsk region. According to a strategy note from Kiev-based Concorde Capital:

"the Donbas is self-sufficient in coking coal and coke, but has no in-house sources of iron ore. The integration of the Donbas region into Ukraine's iron ore-coke-steel chain is very deep."

The Donbas is also heavily dependent on exports - it sells about 70 per cent of its products abroad. Ryabchyn says it is losing its traditional export markets because clients don't want to deal with an unstable and unpredictable grey zone. He says most industrial enterprises in the Donbas have loans from western banks, while their competitiveness depends on western energy-saving technologies.

"I do not see any other reasonable way for the Donbas to exist, other than for it to remain under Ukrainian jurisdiction. Otherwise, this industrial region will die," Ryabchyn says.

Alexander Paraschiy, the head of research at Concorde Capital, does however note that separatist controlled areas produce more than 90% of Ukraine's anthracite, needed for power stations in other regions of Ukraine.

NOTE: Donbas coal costs 300USD per ton vs South African at 85 USD per ton---that is a non brainer and Sa will deliever long term any amount needed by the Ukraine.

But according to Paraschiy, the separatist controlled territories are not self-sufficient "either in terms of the production cycle, or from the standpoint of budget revenues and expenses."

He argues that the Ukrainian government will not provide budgetary support to regions that remain under DNR and LNR control, citing a statement by President Poroshenko on Sunday, in which he said that financial assistance would only be provided to territories that raise the Ukrainian flag.

Those areas would, he says, likely receive economic assistance from Western aid, creating a wider gulf between the separatist-held territories, cut off from their body economy, and the functional areas under Ukrainian control.

davidbfpo
09-27-2014, 09:23 PM
THis week a "lurker" who knows the Ukraine and Crimea added to my knowledge:



Tourists from the Ukraine are still visiting the Crimea
Even non-Russians in the Crimea voted for unification with Russia, simply as the Ukraine was unstable
Russia has provided a new phone network, which is far cheaper than the still operating Ukrainian one
Yes there are bureaucratic difficulties, such as the issue of permits, but so far stability has enabled business and normal life to go on
Foreign investment has ceased in Eastern Ukraine generally, as many investors have concluded the Ukraine is finished
Swiss investors have gone, the Germans are leaving and the Austrians are pondering their options
The "big bosses" to date have opted for the Ukraine and in places have supported Ukrainian rule
In several places in eastern Ukraine the electricity supply has been disrupted, so reducing industrial output and public utilities functioning. Just what happens in the winter is very unclear.

Then today the LAT has a report from the Crimea:http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-russia-ukraine-crimea-20140927-story.html#page=1

OUTLAW 09
09-28-2014, 12:12 PM
Notice---just how Russian "spins" the truth---if one reads it for face value then it seem to argue "see you have got now what you wanted and it was under the other "criminal" pro Russian President that ripped off your ountry to the tune of billions of USDs.

So after all the fighting and destruction---see we the Great Russian Empire was right all along.

WHAT the Russian press release does not spin is in fact the EU agreements were signed, the EU is granting until the end of 2015 Ukrainian free trade with no customs worth billions to their economy AND WHAT Russia does not state in the release is that the delay was offered first by the EU IN order for Russia to adjust it's market products to being sold inside the EU.

NONE of that would have occurred under the old criminal and corrupted former pro Russian President.

Russian products cannot pass any simple EU safety standards ---even Slovenian products meet CE electrical standards, and Russian food products come no where close to meeting EU health standards---and Russia was "afraid" of losing a 2B USD a year market for their goods.

Russian spin these days is a work of art to watch and track--they are really good at it or as the SOCEUR stated ---"it is a blitz kreig".

And we are worried about IS social media usage?

MOSCOW, September 28 (RIA Novosti) – The decision of the Kiev authorities not to enact the Association Agreement with the EU immediately is similar to the proposal made by Ukraine's former President Viktor Yanukovych 10 months ago, at the time when it was possible to avoid the bloodshed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Sunday.

"The decision of the European Union and Ukraine postpone the enactment of the Association Agreement till the end of 2015 … is by and large the same thing that Viktor Yanukovych was asking for," Lavrov said in an interview to Russia’s Channel 5.

OUTLAW 09
09-28-2014, 03:15 PM
The Russian FM seems to be on a roll---now he is complaining about the Feb 21 agreement worked out by the Germans, French and Poles BUT not signed by the Russians who sent no one to the meetings except a Russian Human Rights individual who refused to sign as he did not have authority to.

BUT now they claim the West violated the agreement as if they the Russians were part and parcel of the meetings and agreements--but then there is no Russian signature as they refused to participate with the "junta".

AT the same time they fully ignore the Budapest Memorandum they themselves signed.

MOSCOW, September 28 (RIA Novosti) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has blamed Western partners for violating their own arrangements concerning the regulation of the crisis in Ukraine.

"When we (Russia) called for reverting to the fulfillment of the obligation assumed on February 21 and tried to appeal to our western partners, especially those who were directly involved in preparing this document, they told us that the train was gone and that the situation had changed. How could the situation take such a turn that the task of the country's national unity has become irrelevant?" said Lavrov in an interview with Rossiya-1 broadcaster and Russia Today TV channel.

The agreement between the opposition and the president of Ukraine (the then Viktor Yanukovych) was signed on February 21 in the presence of the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland. The first provision of the agreement was to set up a government of national unity .

“As you can see, because of such absurd elaborations that they provided us with as well as a number of other reasons, we insisted on the fulfillment of the Geneva convention with a call for constitutional reform. In return, they told us that ‘you know the statement is very good; the US, the EU and Ukraine have signed it, but there is already a peace plan proposed by Poroshenko [Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko]'. That is to say, the goalposts are being moved all the time, as the English say, and a new game as if starts again. This is unfair, first of all, and absolutely ineffective,” Lavrov stressed.

This was the Russia response to the accusation of violating the Budapest Memo---which mentions items that were never passed by the Ukrainian Parliament.

Moscow said in an April 1 statement that it could not accept any accusations of violating the December 5, 1994 Budapest Memorandum. "The current Kiev 'government', which came to power in the wake of an unconstitutional coup, carried out policies, especially in relation to ethnic minorities, that in essence undermined Ukraine's unity and pushed a whole region out of the country", the ministry's statement reads.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_02/Kiev-dismisses-Moscows-statement-about-1994-Budapest-Memorandum-non-violation-1139/

Notice the "it ain't us" started already in April.

OUTLAW 09
09-28-2014, 04:18 PM
If I was living currently in Alaska--might think about moving down south for awhile. But we know one can see Russia from Alaska.

This shows just where the Russian mindset is wandering off too these days.

Duma MP Mikhail Degtyarov made an official inquiry to #MID regarding legality of sales Fort Ross to #USA.

Now they are coming for California--there are a large number of rich Russians there---hope California is watching the Ukrainian developments.

AmericanPride
10-07-2014, 05:34 AM
Outlaw,

Notwithstanding what low level politicians say in public, Russia is not going to invade Alaska.

OUTLAW 09
10-07-2014, 06:55 AM
Outlaw,

Notwithstanding what low level politicians say in public, Russia is not going to invade Alaska.

AP--but it does give one a deeper understanding into the Russian ultra nationalist ie "fascist" mindset does it not.

Once you understand it then it is easy to see where Putin is headed before he says a single word.

He is within that circle now and has coupled his train to them and now cannot shift gears---actually he is trapped--you did see the recent photos of members of the Russian Orthodox Church at various military firing ranges shooting pistols and AKs---one would not see that say from the RC or Protestant Churches.

AmericanPride
10-07-2014, 08:55 PM
AP--but it does give one a deeper understanding into the Russian ultra nationalist ie "fascist" mindset does it not.

Not particularly. The 'ultra-nationalists' are still marginal players in the Russian government. To be sure, the last year or so has given them more leverage and opportunity for influence, but the Putin government still retains a measure of realists and liberals who have variable impacts on decision-making. A lowly Duma politician does not speak for the Putin government.



Once you understand it then it is easy to see where Putin is headed before he says a single word.

Putin is a committed realist, for the most part. That he uses the language of nationalism is an indicator of opportunism, not his ideological preferences. The conflict in Ukraine and its escalation has elevated this rhetoric out of political necessity (Putin's approval rating remains incredibly high) but his government has been very conservative in regards to its commitment to the Donbas. The official position of Moscow still remains federalism for Donetsk and Luhansk - not annexation or independence. And when the militias in the east pushed for that, Moscow rebuffed them. As long as the conflict continues and there's a perception in Russia that it is being marginalized by the West, the nationalists will continue to draw strength and influence.

National security is the default principal interest of the Russian state - when that interest contradicts regional integration, economic development, or international cooperation, it always prevails. Ukraine's effective neutrality has been a central national security interest of Russia since 1991. And before then, as far back as the early 1950s when the USSR petitioned to join NATO, the Russians were dedicated to building a buffer between Moscow and the West (remember, the formation of the Warsaw Pact came after West Germany's rearmanent and ascension into NATO). That the Russians are committed to defending what they claim to be a vital interest should not at all be surprising and it is not indicative of your claim.

AmericanPride
10-08-2014, 02:45 PM
you did see the recent photos of members of the Russian Orthodox Church at various military firing ranges shooting pistols and AKs---one would not see that say from the RC or Protestant Churches.

That's not true either. The Christian Right in the U.S. is probably one of the most militant religious segments in any society. Gary Cass recently published in one of the leading Evangelical magazines a call to genocide against Muslims (http://www.salon.com/2014/10/07/why_right_wing_christians_are_actively_promoting_g enocide_partner/). After public backlash, the magazine yanked the article but without any explanation or even apology. This is actually a fairly common sentiment in the U.S. religious right - and it really puts the 'ultra-nationalists' in Russia to shame. The other favorite target of these extremists are homosexuals. The largest domestic attack in U.S. history (the Oklahoma City Bombing) was committed by a Christian right terrorist.

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 03:51 PM
Not particularly. The 'ultra-nationalists' are still marginal players in the Russian government. To be sure, the last year or so has given them more leverage and opportunity for influence, but the Putin government still retains a measure of realists and liberals who have variable impacts on decision-making. A lowly Duma politician does not speak for the Putin government.



Putin is a committed realist, for the most part. That he uses the language of nationalism is an indicator of opportunism, not his ideological preferences. The conflict in Ukraine and its escalation has elevated this rhetoric out of political necessity (Putin's approval rating remains incredibly high) but his government has been very conservative in regards to its commitment to the Donbas. The official position of Moscow still remains federalism for Donetsk and Luhansk - not annexation or independence. And when the militias in the east pushed for that, Moscow rebuffed them. As long as the conflict continues and there's a perception in Russia that it is being marginalized by the West, the nationalists will continue to draw strength and influence.

National security is the default principal interest of the Russian state - when that interest contradicts regional integration, economic development, or international cooperation, it always prevails. Ukraine's effective neutrality has been a central national security interest of Russia since 1991. And before then, as far back as the early 1950s when the USSR petitioned to join NATO, the Russians were dedicated to building a buffer between Moscow and the West (remember, the formation of the Warsaw Pact came after West Germany's rearmanent and ascension into NATO). That the Russians are committed to defending what they claim to be a vital interest should not at all be surprising and it is not indicative of your claim.

AP---then you truly as do many others not fully understand "fascism" do you?

I tried to get you to fully understand the four legs of Russian decision making;
1. the military
2. the security services
3. the oligarch's
and
4. the Russian mob

As a layer covering over the four is the Russian Orthodox Church and as moderator Putin in the middle.

Let's check the status of a majority of the Russian fighters/mercenaries--the last check I made two weeks ago indicated now well over nine different ultra nationalist ie "fascist" groups fighting for Russia in the Donbas region.

Estimated strength well over 10K out of the roughly 15-17K at the height of the fighting.

So if we take your statement at say face value---how far would the fighting have gone with 10K less fighters?

The last time I checked the ROC had a distinctly ultra nationalist tinge to their statements concerning the Ukraine.

The last time I checked a super large number of the idiotic fascist statements made by the supposedly non influencing fascist groups SOMEHOW made it into Russian TV and radio as part and parcel of the info war Russia is carrying out against the Ukraine and the West.

The last time I checked the number of comments made about the use of nuclear weapons against the US and the West came out of these groupings and do not forget those crazies wanting back Ft. Ross and Alaska and they all sit legally as legal Russian political parties in the Duma.

So please understand the intertwine of "fascism", and how it is used in the Russian decision making process.

Again go back and read any number of the articles out there on Russian "fascism"--simply Google it---it is all there as they do not attempt to hide it.

Russian nationalism and fascism is so intertwined it is impossible to tell the difference these days AND then throw in Russian imperialism and you have one heck of a mixture---and one wonders why the US has simply no strategy how many months into this? But on the other hand doing minimum efforts on the Ukraine could be in fact a "strategy".

AmericanPride
10-08-2014, 04:03 PM
AP---then you truly as do many others not fully understand "fascism" do you?

We've been through this before. You play fast and loose with definitions, take people's comments out of context, and sometimes invent or omit historical facts (like claiming that the Ukraine conflict is the first in Europe since WW2 to change state borders, while entirely missing the implosion of Yugoslavia).


the last check I made two weeks ago indicated now well over nine different ultra nationalist ie "fascist" groups fighting for Russia in the Donbas region.

Good for them. The groups doing the actual fighting are usually the furthest from any kind of decision-making power. That the Russian elite are happy to use 'fascist' 'volunteers' does not mean the Russian elite are 'fascist' themselves. What's missing from the mainstream Russian political discourse as well as (and most importantly) in Russian state policy is the fascist obsession with purifying the 'race' and 'nation', and renewing the nation through aggressive armed conflict. So - it's easy to see why actual fascists clamor for conflict in Ukraine while the real decision-makers (Putin, et. al) are much more cautious in committing Russia to perpetual warfare abroad.

And that's the key point you are missing. The central element of fascism is not nationalism. The central component of fascism is that the nation - the people - are reborn through the trials and hardships of war.


The last time I checked a super large number of the idiotic fascist statements made by the supposedly non influencing fascist groups SOMEHOW made it into Russian TV and radio as part and parcel of the info war Russia is carrying out against the Ukraine and the West.

Right. Refer to previous post about opportunism. Appeal to nationalism and ostracizing the 'Other' is common in all countries during war. Turn on Fox News at any time of day.


So please understand the intertwine of "fascism", and how it is in Russian decision making process.

The Russian elite are not fascists. That they have nationalist tendencies is something else entirely.


Russian nationalism and fascism is so intertwined it is impossible to tell the difference these days

It is interwined but only superficially and if one is careless in actually understanding fascism as well as the processes of state decision-making. You aren't careless, are you?

OUTLAW 09
10-08-2014, 04:17 PM
AP---and sanctions, falling oil price --which by the way I mentioned would happen oh about six months ago in this thread and the forever declining Ruble will what cause Russia to continue in the Ukraine?---come on AP think for a change. Putin is in his final leg of a "death race"--remember I used that term often here as well.

You still by the way have not fully understood Russian "fascism" have you if one reads your comments--you did not even take the time to Google did you?

In spite of the RU Central bank's intervention Tuesday (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/central-bank-intervenes-again-to-defend-weakening-ruble/508582.html …), the ruble fell today, to 40.0284/$

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR …

AmericanPride
10-08-2014, 04:26 PM
And outlaw, since you're so interested in throwing the term 'fascism' around carelessly, I'll give you some recommended readings to help you understand the idea.

Start with The Anatomy of Fascism by Robert Paxton. He argues there are five stages of fascism. One of the key components he identifies is an obsession with 'redemptive violence' and 'internal cleansing'. Then start reading the primary sources of (mostly Italian) fascist theorists. Facism is firmly rooted in Western European experiences; namely violent imperialism, and the challenges of both capitalism and Marxism.

Nationalism is not the central component of fascism, otherwise everyone on Fox News would be a 'fascist'. And statism is also not a central component of facism, otherwise any good communist would also be a 'fascist' (which, of course, is absurd). But take those two features together and combine it with the ideological predisposition towards war as redemption for the nation, as a purifying process for the nation, and then you have fascism. That part of is absent in both Russian political discourse and policy.

So for you to 'fully understand' fascism, I suggest you expand your reading list beyond Google.

AmericanPride
10-08-2014, 04:36 PM
AP---and sanctions, falling oil price --which by the way I mentioned would happen oh about six months ago in this thread and the forever declining Ruble will what cause Russia to continue in the Ukraine?

How would you know? You've claimed repeatedly that Russia is a 'rogue state' run by 'irrational' decision-makers living in an 'altered stated of reality'. So if that is the case, how can anyone predict what they will do next? :rolleyes:


You still by the way have not fully understood Russian "fascism" have you if one reads your comments--you did not even take the time to Google did you?

Fascism does exist in Russia - in parties like the LDPR. But fascism is not a mainstream ideology in Russia and it certainly does not have any significant influence on the state's policies.

davidbfpo
10-08-2014, 05:18 PM
Moderator's Note

This post and fourteen replies were in a separate thread till 16th October 2014. Now merged into this primarily political thread (ends).


Professor Lawrence Freedman, a noted writer on strategy, has a WoTR article (HT to them), the last two sentences inspired my title:
In limited war you don’t always get what you want. Nor do you get much satisfaction.The article's title is 'Ukraine and the Art of Limited War' and her refers to a 1969 Rolling Stones song:http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/ukraine-and-the-art-of-limited-war/

He describes his article thus:
In this essay I take up the story from early May to the start of October and consider what, if any, strategic lessons might be drawn from this most recent stage in the conflict. ...The next stage in the conflict over the political future of Ukraine will depend on how the issue of the governance of territory currently occupied by separatists is handled. If the conflict bursts out of its current limits then the next essay in this series will have an even more alarming topic.On the two Ukrainian SWC threads Outlaw09 and others have posted on the 'Little green men', so this passage and link is useful:
Some observers have drawn attention to a speech from early 2013 by Valery Gerasimov, newly appointed as chief of Russia’s general staff. Reflecting some of the Western debate, he described how in conflict in the Middle East there had been a progressive erosion of the distinctions between war and peace and between uniformed personnel and covert operatives.A report on the Gerasimov speech:http://www.interpretermag.com/putins-actions-in-ukraine-following-script-by-russian-general-staff-a-year-ago/

mirhond
10-08-2014, 07:35 PM
https://www.worldsteel.org/dms/internetDocumentList/bookshop/Word-Steel-in-Figures-2013/document/World%20Steel%20in%20Figures%202013.pdf
steel production and consumption in Ukraine, by World Steel

Prod: 33 mln.t. in 2012 (10 in the world rank, between Brazil and Italy)

Cons: mln.t. of finished steel products by y. 2006-20012 (somewhere in between Argentina and Sweden)

6.6
8.1
6.9
3.8
5.4
6.3
5.7

intermediate deduction: Ukraine is either so highly industrialized and developed that she needn't so much steel, (like Sweden) or Ukraine is deindustrializing. Lets look at consumption of finished steel products,
kg. per capita, 2006-20012

Sweden

491.6
530.0
469.8
275.9
388.1
409.6
367.7

Ukraine
142.6
174.0
149.5
83.9
119.6
139.1
126.1

Conclusion: Ukraine is going to scrap industrial complex and turn into ethographic resort with blackjack and hookers.

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 05:13 AM
Outlaw,

Here are some more choice quotes highlighting your misuse (and misunderstanding) of fascism.


... an employer breaks [the national community]... when he conducts his business in an inhuman, exploiting way, misuses the national labor force and makes millions out of its sweat.


The corporation... is formed to expand the wealth, the political power, and the well being of the Italian people... political strength creates wealth, and wealth in its turn invigorates political action.


[The state] is not a collection of economic contracting parties... but the organization organization of a community of... similar living beings for the better facilitation of the maintenance of their species... this and nothing else is the meaning of a state.

The economic basis of fascism is the simultaneous rejection of capitalism (the so-called 'economic man') and Marxism. Instead of exasperating class conflict or ending it through proletarian revolution, fascist ideology advocates a 'class compromise' through corporatism in which the state manages the relations between capital and labor through the compulsory institutional arrangement of associationally organized interests. Commercial interests, like labor, are subordinated to the well-being of the 'nation'. This is neither the policy or platform of the Putin administration. The dominant role of the Russian state in the productive processes of the country are not a reflection of a fascist desire to compel commercial activity, but derives from the historical continuity of Russian centralism. The Putin administration's interest in compelling commercial activities starts and stops with preserving the wealth and power of its closed circle of oligarchs.


The right to national independence does not arise from any merely literary and idealistic form... still less from a more or less passive and unconcious de facto situation, but from an active, self-conscious political will expressing itself in action... a nation... is a living, ethical entity only in so far as it is progressive... inactivity is death.


Above all, Fascism, in so far as it considers and observes the future and the development of humanity quite apart from political considerations of the moment, believes neither in the possibility nor the utility of perpetual peace... War alone brings up to its highest tension all human energy and puts the stamp of nobility upon the people who have the courage to meet it. All other trials are substitutes, which never really put a man in front of himself in the alternative of life and death.


And struggle is always a means for improving a species' health and power of resistance and, therefore, a cause of its higher development.

And here is the other, perhaps most important, component of fascism: the renewing qualities of violence. In fact, war and violence are perhaps the key defining feature of fascism that distinguishes it from other 20th century ideologies. Even communism, with its call for global revolution, advocated violence only to the extent it was necessary to overthrow capitalism and replace it with a stateless society. No serious or significant official in the Putin administration has adopted this line of thinking, that the Russian people's spiritual and personal redemption requires perpetual warfare. All of Russia's wars since 1991 have involved problems in demarcating the boundaries in the numerous states created from the ruins of the Soviet political system. The differences between national boundaries and state boundaries has served as the underlying cause, while events like the Maiden revolution have been triggers. If Putin were a fascist, as described by actual fascists, the rhetoric from Moscow would call for the expansion of Russia and the domination of its neighbors through perpetual armed conflict.

And what's interesting is that your favorite fiction author you have quoted here, George Orwell, warned against the loose and inaccurate uses of terms, specifically fascism; when people use their 'private definitions' it allows them to push intellectually dishonest arguments, which is what you have done here repeatedly.

Is the Russian state authoritarian? Yes. Is nationalism an active sentiment in Russia? Yes. Is Russia a fascist state as described by actual fascists? No.

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 05:35 AM
Some interesting points from the author:


Russia has sustained a weak position and boosted its bargaining position by conveying a readiness to escalate. This has been a constant of Russian rhetoric, including reference on occasion to nuclear capabilities. From the start there were menacing deployments of Russian forces along the border. The menace was validated to a degree by the invasion of Ukrainian territory. The threat of escalation certainly had an effect on Ukrainian calculations, reinforced by Kiev’s awareness of its own limited ability to escalate...The gloomy prognostications by many Western commentators on how Putin was determined to take on all neighboring states in some ways boosted this aspect of Russian strategy, making the country appear to be more powerful than is actually the case.

I find this comment humorous insofar that the loudest voices condemning Russian aggression also served as an echo chamber for Russian information operations by amplifying and hyping the Russian threat... which produced the contradictory statements that Russia was/is simultaneously the greatest threat to world peace and a second or third rate country ready to capitulate to a muscular U.S. response.


Putin’s power play in Ukraine has been impulsive and improvised, without any clear sense of the desired end state. It will serve neither Ukraine nor Moscow if Donetsk and Luhansk fall into disrepair and disarray, left in some separatist limbo, but it is not clear that either have the capacity to provide a viable future. The separatists will not allow its re-integration into Ukraine while Russia cannot afford to annex.

And this is the other ironic piece, because there are commentators who adamantly insist that Russia has masterminded this conflict from day one and has total control of the separatists... only to mire themselves in a difficult political position like the one described in the quote (or were manipulated from day one to be 'suckered in'... to be honest, the consistency is not clear :rolleyes:). To be sure, Putin and his cabal are opportunists with a flair for power politics, but they are neither master strategists or pre-cogs capable of predicting the future.

kaur
10-09-2014, 07:45 AM
Domestic Sources of the Donbas Insurgency by Serhiy Kudelia

www.ponarseurasia.org/memo/domestic-sources-donbas-insurgency

In Defense of Conspirology: A Rejoinder to Serhiy Kudelia’s Anti-Political Analysis of the Hybrid War in Eastern Ukraine by Andreas Umland

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/node/7274

Reply to Andreas Umland: The Donbas Insurgency Began At Home by Serhiy Kudelia

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article/reply-andreas-umland-donbas-insurgency-began-home

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 10:37 AM
Outlaw,

Here are some more choice quotes highlighting your misuse (and misunderstanding) of fascism.

So AP again another rant leading nowhere.

To get back to your initial comment that triggered this comment evidently.

So AP---you seem to assume that one's own "ideology" and "personal biases" play WHAT no role in critical thinking and or the decision making process of a leader.

In some aspects Obama was recently actually correct when he stated Russia is a regional power and it is if you look seriously at it--and remember I stated many many comments ago---a superpower must be as well an economic power and right now I would not rate Russia as a economic powerhouse ---remember the term "death race".

Come on AP--think--and yet you quote Hitler as a "fascist leader"--would have thought Mussolini would have been better as they were true "fascists" long before Hitler---would have liked you quoting some of the current Russian "fascist" statements of the last six months, but again you missed the point.

OR are you stating in your initial comment on the topic Putin is being driven by a "rational logical" western or for that matter eastern emotional tinged decision making processes and his own personal biases and ideology play no role in those decsions?

Come on not even you can think that?

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 10:55 AM
Some interesting points from the author:

I find this comment humorous insofar that the loudest voices condemning Russian aggression also served as an echo chamber for Russian information operations by amplifying and hyping the Russian threat... which produced the contradictory statements that Russia was/is simultaneously the greatest threat to world peace and a second or third rate country ready to capitulate to a muscular U.S. response.

And this is the other ironic piece, because there are commentators who adamantly insist that Russia has masterminded this conflict from day one and has total control of the separatists... only to mire themselves in a difficult political position like the one described in the quote (or were manipulated from day one to be 'suckered in'... to be honest, the consistency is not clear :rolleyes:). To be sure, Putin and his cabal are opportunists with a flair for power politics, but they are neither master strategists or pre-cogs capable of predicting the future.


And again AP you still do not get it for someone constantly commenting.

Really read the article many of the points the author makes you in fact "missed"---and again does it mean for example I buy in 100% to what he is writing---no he has some holes even in his article that he did not explore but due probably to length restrictions he did not.

AND again AP exactly what phase of this Russian UW are we in?--I asked you that a number of times and yet you seem to always sidestep.

One of the main points that I differ with the author on is his not fully understanding the Russian military planning cycles especially at the senior staff levels--ie COLs and higher. Remember this Russian Army as well as the former Soviet Army simply does not do "quickly" well--it is not in their military DNA. Planning, planning and more planning---you have never experienced them first hand so you would not know--many of their staff decisions have to even be signed by higher officers after being briefed on them ---thus planning is slow at best.

The Crimea events were planned long ago and pulled off the shelve much as Putin did in implementing his UW strategy against eastern Ukraine which the author mentioned but at a higher level not the tactical level.

SEE AP--this is again where we differ---Ukrainian senior officers and Russian senior offers go back a long way and know to a degree each other well.

Concerning "suckered in"--stop for moment and ask yourself---even though Russia was in say a phase three/four of their UW strategy the decision to deploy actual troops had not yet been taken when it appeared that the mercenaries were holding their own. Moving one's own troops into the theater is at phase six SO WHAT motivated Putin to jump straight into phase six of his own military strategy?

As the mercenaries lost more ground and fighters and were on the verge of actually losing--ask yourself another question. WHY did the Ukrainians keep on pushing the fight all the while knowing what Russia would in the end respond with and how Putin would respond.

IF you really did take time to read --go back and check what Putin was doing and or saying during the initial Russian troop deployments---NOTHING can be found---he went extremely silent--it was almost like a poker player who had been bluffing and went all in and WAS called by his opponent only in the end the opponent knew he was bluffing---TAKE a good look at photos/videos/interviews of/with Putin during the Crimea and then compare them to his appearance during the initial troop deployments and the sheer numbers of killed Russian troops coming back out--he did not look good--he looked tired. AND still he said nothing--all statements at that time came from his FM.

Ukrainians might be militarily weaker than Russia but they are not dumb.

Think slowly and ask the simple question --WHY did the Ukrainians keep pushing?

THEN go back and reread actually where the EU was on sectorial sanctions--remember the internal fighting that the EU was in with five members who did not want to level them---AND what then "pushed" them over the cliff and support sectorial sanctions which are now really hurting Russia and are not coming off anytime soon as it takes a full 28 member decision and you saw where Germany currently stands--leave them in place.

WHAT pushed the EU was the reporting by UK journalists who physically spotted Russian airborne troops and tanks crossing into eastern Ukraine--NOW read the next day what the Ukrainians were saying---we destroyed X number of Russian vehicle and troops--AND the Western response---stunned silence and all the time the Ukrainians never released evidence--just words and then later photos and TV appearances of the 10 Russian airborne prisoners.

AND immediately the EU sectorial sanctions went into play.

AND Russia was not "suckered in"---come on AP expand your thinking.

ALSO AP--recently via open source the pocket litter of a dead Russian soldier was translated and behold--"his contract expired 14 November"--and the Russian social media comments by those Russian troops who have returned and or still in the Ukraine also indicate November as being a drop dead date for some reason.

So if the author is correct that Putin entered eastern Ukraine in a hasty fashion then why were "contract Russian troops" carrying "contract orders" dated to end in mid November--AGAIN AP the Russian Army does not do "quickly". From say July until November is not a short period in the life cycle of combat--some of the Russian GRU/SF units had been inside since June---that is not "hasty".

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 11:26 AM
AP--here is the critical take away from the entire article and you failed to even quote it.

Putin’s power play in Ukraine has been impulsive and improvised, without any clear sense of the desired end state. It will serve neither Ukraine nor Moscow if Donetsk and Luhansk fall into disrepair and disarray, left in some separatist limbo, but it is not clear that either have the capacity to provide a viable future. The separatists will not allow its re-integration into Ukraine while Russia cannot afford to annex. The first stage of this crisis demonstrated poor crisis management. The second stage proved that in a struggle over territory, superior force makes a difference. However, without popular support, along with economic and administrative capacity, Russia will struggle to transform seized territory into a viable political entity. After many months of effort Russia has achieved limited gains but at high cost.

This AP is a critical statement which is why IMO Putin is trying for a way out and still cannot find the off ramp as his economy is diving faster into the ditch than he can get the West's attention.

In limited war you don’t always get what you want. Nor do you get much satisfaction.

Using Putin's own new military UW strategy and looking at what is happening on the ground---his new strategy has been a dismal failure because the end state of the strategy is a "victory" and currently what he has is a pure mess on the ground and even his own troops are having problems with his "fascist" friends he motivated to go to the Donbas.

See AP---actually being "suckered in" was fine for Putin as it fit his own UW strategy for the eastern Ukraine BUT now if you read this RIA press release very slowly---it seems to be saying "we are praying and hoping the ceasefire will take hold---and even though it is being broken it is still better than outright fighting."

AP--since when have you seen Russian end state strategy being defined as "praying and hoping"?

BY the way AP--this is virtually the first press release where I have not seen the Russian official government accuse the Ukrainians of "violating" the "ceasefire"---interesting twist of things if you ask me--Russia is finally awakening to reality on the ground and they are in fact now "trapped" by the Ukrainians and there is no way out without Ukrainian help--and that is a twist in this event.

Updated 12:40 p.m. Moscow Time

MOSCOW, October 9 (RIA Novosti) – The Kremlin hopes that the situation in Ukraine will stabilize, despite the fact that the ceasefire is not being observed in full, Russian President’s aide Yuri Ushakov said Thursday.The Kremlin official said that the current events in Ukraine “can be described as ceasefire.”

“They cannot be compared to the period of active military action. Maybe the ceasefire is not being observed in full, but still more constructive, more positive processes are under way. We hope that the situation will stabilize in the future,” Ushakov told reporters.

On Tuesday, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council announced that the conflicting sides in crisis-hit eastern Ukraine were introducing a so-called “regime of silence”, terminating all military action and artillery shelling in the region.

According to the Council, previous such attempts to bring a halt to continuing combat actions in eastern Ukraine have failed to hold.

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 11:37 AM
AP--here is the critical take away from the entire article and you failed to even quote it.

Putin’s power play in Ukraine has been impulsive and improvised, without any clear sense of the desired end state. It will serve neither Ukraine nor Moscow if Donetsk and Luhansk fall into disrepair and disarray, left in some separatist limbo, but it is not clear that either have the capacity to provide a viable future. The separatists will not allow its re-integration into Ukraine while Russia cannot afford to annex. The first stage of this crisis demonstrated poor crisis management. The second stage proved that in a struggle over territory, superior force makes a difference. However, without popular support, along with economic and administrative capacity, Russia will struggle to transform seized territory into a viable political entity. After many months of effort Russia has achieved limited gains but at high cost.

This AP is a critical statement which is why IMO Putin is trying for a way out and still cannot find the off ramp as his economy is diving faster into the ditch than he can get the West's attention.

In limited war you don’t always get what you want. Nor do you get much satisfaction.

Using Putin's own new military UW strategy and looking at what is happening on the ground---his new strategy has been a dismal failure because the end state of the strategy is a "victory" and currently what he has is a pure mess on the ground and even his own troops are having problems with his "fascist" friends he motivated to go to the Donbas.

See AP---actually being "suckered in" was fine for Putin as it fit his own UW strategy for the eastern Ukraine BUT now if you read this RIA press release very slowly---it seems to be saying "we are praying and hoping the ceasefire will take hold---and even though it is being broken it is still better than outright fighting."

AP--since when have you seen Russian end state strategy being defined as "praying and hoping"?

BY the way AP--this is virtually the first press release where I have not seen the Russian official government accuse the Ukrainians of "violating" the "ceasefire"---interesting twist of things if you ask me--Russia is finally awakening to reality on the ground and they are in fact now "trapped" by the Ukrainians and there is no way out without Ukrainian help--and that is a twist in this event.

Updated 12:40 p.m. Moscow Time

MOSCOW, October 9 (RIA Novosti) – The Kremlin hopes that the situation in Ukraine will stabilize, despite the fact that the ceasefire is not being observed in full, Russian President’s aide Yuri Ushakov said Thursday.The Kremlin official said that the current events in Ukraine “can be described as ceasefire.”

“They cannot be compared to the period of active military action. Maybe the ceasefire is not being observed in full, but still more constructive, more positive processes are under way. We hope that the situation will stabilize in the future,” Ushakov told reporters.

On Tuesday, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council announced that the conflicting sides in crisis-hit eastern Ukraine were introducing a so-called “regime of silence”, terminating all military action and artillery shelling in the region.

According to the Council, previous such attempts to bring a halt to continuing combat actions in eastern Ukraine have failed to hold.

By the way AP this conflict is far far different than Georgia and or Moldavia--it is not frozen but rather dynamic in nature and for the first time the Ukrainians on the ground are slowly regaining the combat initiative.

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 11:44 AM
AP--this is the Russian "death race" I often comment on and yet you seem to think it does not exist. I pointed out exactly six months ago when they went into the Crimea---this is the single point of failure and it came far faster than I even thought possible using the oil info from then COUPLED with a US strategic reserve oil sale that no one paid attention to that started the oil price slide.

At 90 per barrel Russia is losing per day 40-55M USDs at the 90 range---they have repeated different figures they need for their yearly budget---they ranged from 96 to 114---but never at 89.

This is a more powerful force to destabilize Putin than anything @andersostlund: Urals Crude (Russian Oil) at $89.53.
pic.twitter.com/V5yWVMwlJv

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 12:07 PM
IMO currently Putin is "trapped" in both his own UW strategy and the so so military results on the ground since the Russian troops marched in and might in the face of a not so frozen environment go for a full victory ie the Odessa land corridor meaning since I am losing my own economy over eastern Ukraine--- the price to be paid by the West and the Ukraine is now a full annexation of eastern Ukraine as that constitutes a "victory in my eyes" and I can "sell" that to the Russian population.

Military troop and equipment movements by the Russia Army has picked up inside the Ukraine and more and newer Russia equipment is now being seen for the first time outside Russia.

And the constant mercenary shellings have not stopped.

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 12:10 PM
AP---the core problem you have is the same as many western media outlets have---they fully do not understand both the Ukrainian mindset and the new Russian UW military strategy.

QUOTE: ABC today stated on one of their morning news shows and via twitter---they do not understand why there is so much fighting over the Donetsk airport---"it has no strategic and or military importance" UNQUOTE:

That about sums up the US Obama strategy as well for Russia and Central Europe.

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 01:48 PM
Kaur,

Thanks for sharing those articles. In particular:


This memo views the Donbas insurrection as primarily a homegrown phenomenon. It argues that political factors—state fragmentation, violent regime change, and the government’s low coercive capacity—combined with popular emotions specific to the region—resentment and fear—played a crucial role in launching the armed secessionist movement there.


In early April, 46 percent in the Donetsk region and 33 percent in the Luhansk region viewed disarming illegal radical groups as the main step in maintaining the country’s unity. Instead, the government authorized transforming them into semi-private militia battalions tasked with fighting separatists in the east. This made the desire for protection more salient and led locals to support or join their own town militias


Still, as this analysis suggests, merely suppressing the insurgency by force without addressing its deeper internal causes is unlikely to make the Donbas a less troublesome and volatile part of Ukraine.

Once the process of fragmentation begins - when groups are divided and alienated from one another - it's difficult to stop. When Yatsenyuk came into power, he was more concerned with pushing through his policy agenda than rebuilding the Ukrainian polity. Even with Poroshenko in the presidency, the Prime Minister, as far as Ukrainian domestic politics are concerned, represents the strongest obstacle to de-escalation and a settlement.

Outlaw,

It's evident you have no idea what you're talking about when discussing fascism.


So AP---you seem to assume that one's own "ideology" and "personal biases" play WHAT no role in critical thinking and or the decision making process of a leader.

Where did I say that?


a superpower must be as well an economic power and right now I would not rate Russia as a economic powerhouse

That's not necessarily true. First, power is relative, so as long as a superpower's capabilities exceed that of the next rank of powers to a determined degree, it is a 'superpower'. Second, where this threshold is placed will determine whether Russia is a superpower or not. In the qualitative analysis I produced on 15 metrics across 5 domains, Russia ranked #3 after the U.S. and China. This is in large measure due to its military capabilities, but also to some extent the size of its economy.


would have thought Mussolini would have been better as they were true "fascists" long before Hitler-

If you ever bothered reading anything posed to you, you would have noticed that I quoted Mussolini three times.


would have liked you quoting some of the current Russian "fascist" statements of the last six months

Be my guest. Show me where Putin states that violence and perpetual warfare are the prescribed methods for renewing the Russian people.


OR are you stating in your initial comment on the topic Putin is being driven by a "rational logical" western or for that matter eastern emotional tinged decision making processes and his own personal biases and ideology play no role in those decsions?

What in the heck are you talking about? :rolleyes:

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 01:59 PM
Outlaw,

It's really not necessary for you to spam the forum. Just FYI.


And again AP you still do not get it for someone constantly commenting.

That statement is ironic. :p


Think slowly and ask the simple question --WHY did the Ukrainians keep pushing?


See AP---actually being "suckered in" was fine for Putin

Now more twists and turns in your conspiracy theory. First, you say the Russians master-minded the whole operation since before the Maiden. Then you say the Ukrainians actually 'suckered in' the Russians. Now you're stating that the Russians actually wanted to be 'suckered in'. Come on. :rolleyes: You are giving both the Russians and Ukrainians far more credit for competency than either of them deserve.

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 02:51 PM
See AP--again you go and state things that somehow do not quite jell.

1. Russian decision making has nothing to do with Putin's ideology and or personal biases

2. you somehow have never quite answered exactly what phase of the Russian UW strategy they are in

3. and you definitely do not fully understand the day to day grind on the ground in the Ukraine.

Let's see how you handle this particular article released as a Research Draft from The Royal Institute for International Affairs--now AP it is 24 pages long--can you read before at least attempting to negate any and everything these days.

Since you have never worked with Russian Staff officers and thus never would fully understand that they do nothing without a plan and or authority to do something--YOU would have sensed that 1) the Russians are in fact working a strategic political warfare game with the Ukraine and the US/EU/NATO 2) sense you never read their new military UW strategy in support of the political warfare THEN you would have never sensed and or known about a long term strategy that is driving Putin and this plan is always in the background.

BUT when one does not read this not much else comes forward in terms of ideas and or critical thoughts.

TRUELY take the time and fully understand this particular Research as it fills the final gap between the Russian political war being supported by a Russian military UW strategy.

BASICALLY up to now SWJ has not talked about Russia strategic strategy, nor has western media nor for that matter most of the European/US leadership and or media--not many have even known about "Veritkal"--it has been there for awhile in the open source world just was no paid attention to.

AP--read it and then tell me how it fits into their new UW military strategy---the water in the glass is very clear and even you should be able to understand it.

This is the glove to the military hand.

By the way have blogged often with the author on just this subject---and by the way the "suckered in" you should get use to as more is coming out over the next few weeks.

You really do need to expand your horizons a tad--


Defibrillating the Vertikal? Putin and Russian Grand Strategy
07 October 2014

Project: Russia and Eurasia Programme, Russia's Strategic Overhaul

http://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/defibrillating-vertikal-putin-and-russian-grand-strategy#sthash.hpO2XDzu.dpuf

Introduction

The Ukraine crisis has provoked a discussion in Western policy and academic communities about Russian strategy as observers attempt to work out what the Russian leadership might do next. Are Russian actions the result of a coherent and consistent agenda? Is Russian strategy, as some Western interviewers recently asked of Putin himself, on ‘a path of dialogue, or expansion and conquest’?1

This paper explores the question of whether there is a Russian ‘grand strategy’, but approaches it from a different angle from that of the current debate indicated above, which usually equates strategy with long-term policy or goals. Instead, here the focus is on strategy as the creation of power, and the paper examines the link between the Russian leadership’s consistent but increasingly obvious commitment to strategic planning and its ability to have those plans implemented.

The paper begins with a brief overview of the current debate about Russian strategy, before turning to draw on the wider strategic studies literature to sketch a working definition of ‘grand strategy’. This is important given the apparent confusion regarding what ‘strategy’ means. It then outlines the
evolution of a three-stage strategic overhaul that has taken place under Vladimir Putin since 2000. The paper then focuses on some of the problems in the plans that are affecting their implementation, before concluding by looking at the range of measures being undertaken by the Russian leadership to address these problems.

Although the paper offers a tentative answer to the question of whether there is a Russian ‘grand strategy’, its main intention is to look beyond the Ukraine crisis, important though it is, to emphasize the commitment of the Russian leadership to strategic planning, despite its inherent difficulties, and to unpack the vertikal of power, the political mechanism through which the plans
are formulated and implemented. Indeed, the paper argues that the vertikal is, in effect, synonymous with strategy – and it does not work except through direct ‘manual control’ from the top leaders.

The paper concludes, therefore, by suggesting there is a political idea, but not yet a grand strategy – though Putin’s efforts to ‘defibrillate’ the vertikal, most notably through the use of ‘para-institutional’ organizations, suggest the intention of the leadership to establish one.

So again AP--Putin does not use "ideology" and personal biases to make his decisions?---come on AP think.

OUTLAW 09
10-09-2014, 03:19 PM
AP--since you do not like the concept of "being suckered in" ask yourself this simple question.

Would the US have stated this today If the Russian military had not crossed into eastern Ukraine?

US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Derek Chollet has said that the United States is designing a program that may eventually lead to providing lethal assistance to the Ukrainian government.

AND yes AP--even the Russian FM took notice of the announcement--so again would it have been said before Russian troops entered the Ukraine--not really is the answer.

© REUTERS/ Gleb Garanich

US Arms Supplies to Ukraine Would Harm Peaceful Settlement: Moscow

Potential US deliveries of lethal weaponry to Kiev would undermine agreements on the peaceful resolution of the current crisis in eastern Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Thursday.

AP--do you know what agreement the Russian FM is alluding to as even the Minsk 1 and 2 have not been implemented as they are stated--no ceasefire fully functioning, no OSCE inspectors on all Russian crossing points, no OSCE drones in the air over the buffer zones, no buffer zones, no finished POW exchange, no Russian troops verified as totally leaving, and absolutely no Russian mercenaries have left the Ukraine.

So again WHAT agreements are functioning as they were signed is the Russian FM talking about?

But again the Russian FM seems to be confused about "the agreements".

17:21 Lavrov says some problems exist in fulfillment of Minsk accords but general trend is positive (Part 2)

mirhond
10-09-2014, 03:35 PM
Domestic Sources of the Donbas Insurgency by Serhiy Kudelia

Finally, you are citing something that makes sence, not just Ukromedia bull$#!t.


The armed conflict in Donbas resulted from a complex interplay of structural and agency-based variables. Monocausal explanations pointing to Russia as the sole culprit miss crucial domestic drivers of the insurrection.

That was my point from the very beginning of this thread, successfully ignored by allmost everyone here.

kaur
10-09-2014, 07:01 PM
mirhond, and now read Umland's answer.

+ Golt's article why Russia is not capable repeat Crimea scenario in Donbas region.

http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/87767/

AP, Kudelia explained.


Group Emotions

While structural theories may point to variables that create an opportunity for armed resistance, they do not specify the exact mechanisms that push people to fight. As political scientist Roger Petersen notes, “structural change produces information that is processed into beliefs that in turn create emotions and tendencies toward certain actions.”[7] He suggests three instrumental emotions—fear, resentment, and hatred—that help to explain the beginning of ethnic conflicts. Hatred requires a prior history of conflict and long-standing animosity between ethnic groups, which has not been pronounced in Ukraine. Resentment and fear, by contrast, bear direct relevance to the Donbas conflict.

Did you read from Umland's answer?


Both the extensive public and the heated academic discussions around the Right Sector were, not the least, responses to the media hysteria that Russia’s TV propaganda channels created around Yarosh & Co. At some point, the Right Sector was almost as many times mentioned on Kremlin-controlled television, as Russia’s ruling United Russia party. What, in spite of such attention, Both the extensive public and the heated academic discussions around the Right Sector were, not the least, responses to the media hysteria that Russia’s TV propaganda channels created around Yarosh & Co. At some point, the Right Sector was almost as many times mentioned on Kremlin-controlled television, as Russia’s ruling United Russia party. What, in spite of such attention, remained largely unmentioned, in Russian and Western reporting, was that significant parts of the Right Sector’s early leadership came from Southern and Eastern Ukraine, and that some of the local organizations using the label “Right Sector” partially and even predominantly communicate in Russian language. This does not nullify the problematic or even disgusting political views that many (but apparently not all) members of the Right Sector seem to hold. Yet, the apparently significant participation of russophones in the Right Sector does not fit the popular image of an existential conflict between Ukraine’s Russian-speaking East and Ukrainian-speking West. Arguably, it was the Kremlin’s horror image of an allegedly genocidal and ethnocentrist Right Sector, an integral part of Moscow’s “hybrid” or “non-linear war” against Ukraine, rather than the really existing Right Sector that played its role in the spread of fear among many russophones in the Donbas and Crimea. To see this factor as a solely domestic source of the insurgency would be wrong.

Did you read this report how Russia managed the situation?

https://nllp.jallc.nato.int/IKS/Sharing%20Public/NATO%20StratCom%20COE%20Research%20on%20Informatio n%20Campaign%20against%20Ukraine.pdf

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 07:41 PM
Kaur,

In the social sciences it is not always possible to "specify the exact mechanisms that push people to fight" - did Russian information operations contribute 80% and ethnic group emotions produce the remaining 20%? Who is to say? I do disagree that the source of the insurgency in Ukraine is "solely domestic" - but Ukraine's problems were a pre-existing condition before Russian intervention; hence Moscow's ability to leverage it to their advantage. Russia in large part bears the majority responsibility for escalating the conflict, but how much for actually starting it? The previous election cycles and political turmoil illustrate exactly where the cleavages in Ukrainian stability existed.

mirhond
10-09-2014, 07:55 PM
mirhond, and now read Umland's answer.



5. Kudelia’s mentioning of the local uprisings in Western and Central Ukraine, during the Euromaidan, as events previewing the armed insurgency in the Donbas shortly later is relevant, but may be misunderstood too. As with the putatively triggering function of the Euromaidan violence in Kyiv, the line of continuity between the revolutionary seizures of governmental buildings in Central and Western Ukraine, and the armed insurgency in the Donbas is only partial, if not spurious. The earlier take-overs of administrations were directed against one particular Ukrainian political regime and not against the Ukrainian state. They did not lead to large death tolls, and used physical violence only to a relatively limited degree. The Donbas insurgency may have, in its early phase, copied the events further west. But, in distinction, it became soon directed against the Ukrainian state as such, and quickly informed by the use of increasingly heavy guns.

This quotation shows that author has no idea what he is talking about. He is clearly ignorant of the early events of Donbass uprising, when angry mobs shout "Berkut! Berkut!" and kicked the asses of "right sector" visitors. No point to read article after this, because reader have to agree by default that bunch of oligarchs and their useful idiots on Maidan who hijacked the state have more solid legal standing. One have to prove it, in the first place.

kaur
10-09-2014, 07:59 PM
AP, if you consider the arrival of Russian cossacks and FSB guy Strelkov/Girkin from Crimea and read this, what do you think?


Many terrorist factions care about the level of popular support they enjoy within a population they claim to represent. Empirically, this level of support can either rise or fall in the aftermath of a campaign of terrorist violence. Under what circumstances is the use of terror an effective tactic for mobilizing political support for an extremist group? This paper models a scenario in which an extremist faction considers attacking a government in the hopes of provoking a counterterror response that will radicalize the population, increasing the extremists' support at the expense of a more moderate faction. In our scenario, such radicalization can result either from the economic damage caused by counterterror operations or by the way in which such operations change the
population's assessment of the government's motivations. We demonstrate that such attempts at mobilizing public support can be, but need not be, successful, discuss factors that make both the initiation of a terror campaign and successful mobilization more or less likely, and relate our results to several empirical cases.


http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politics/faculty/dickson/dickson_propaganda.pdf

Using this pretext Russian media continued propaganda campaign against Kiev. Despite this Strelkov/Girkin complained that there is not enough locals to fight against Kiev in May. Propaganda by deed among locals didn't work? Russian volunteers started to arrive to make bigger mess. By the middle of August they were pushed back. Kiev started use monopoly of force Kudelia complained about? August 18 Girkin disappeared from Russian news. Russian battalion tactical groups arrived and spoiled this enforcement attempt.

Here is article about media analysis of Russian biggest media sources. First graphic shows how term federalization = «Федерализация» has diminished. Second one is about Right Sector= «Правый сектор».

http://znak.com/moscow/articles/25-08-19-42/102822.html

How Strelkov/Girkin disappeared from Russian news.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10201646471443257&set=a.1230292777123.27484.1823236270&type=1

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 08:17 PM
Kaur,

I agree that Russia has been active in agitating discontent and escalation in Donbas. The real question is when was this decision made. Outlaw strongly argues that Russia has manipulated these events from even before the Maiden. I don't think that's the case. Aside from stopping several Ukrainian Army convoys, the initial 'revolt' in the east was largely peaceful. And it's worth noting that Russia ignored their referendums for Russian annexation even though Russia formally annexed Crimea immediately prior.

kaur
10-09-2014, 08:46 PM
AP, Putin spoke to FSB leaders in February 2012. Putin's integration project is Eurasian Union. In the end of November 2013 Maidan square said no to his project.


The president warned that against the attempts to slow down the integration work on the post-Soviet space can be used a variety of enforcement mechanisms, including the so-called soft power.

http://izvestia.ru/news/544959

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 09:37 PM
Kaur,

Regional integration was also a project of Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Really, you could trace the ebb and flow of Russian desire for European integration as far back as Peter the Great. The alarmists today like to cast the Eurasian Union as the rebirth of the USSR, but that is not the case. Yes - historically and today views itself as a major power. Why is that alarming? So it should not be surprising that Russian elites also see their country as having an important role in regional and global affairs. Regional integration is the trend on all the continents.

The next evolution in regional economic integration will be building connections between these organizations. As far back as the 1950s, the Soviet Union proposed an architecture that would have integrated the USSR into the European structure, but this was rejected by the U.S., U.K., and France. Similar overtures have been floated in the years since but have not picked up traction largely because of mutual distrust. What's interesting is that the fragmentation of the international system through the proliferation of nation-states since World War II has not actually reversed the centuries long process of regional economic integration. How long can the U.S. and Russia sustain confrontation with one another while globalization is busy building connections between peoples and economies?

So where does Ukraine fit in all of this? What's usually underappreciated is the balancing act of Yanukovych. If he was such a henchmen of Moscow, why didn't he seek integration sooner? For his own political survival, neutrality was the only feasible option. He could accept Western integration (which he preferred at first) but it came at a high cost through austerity and reform, which would wipe out his domestic base. That's why he eventually rejected it, prompting the Maiden. The country's pending default is what forced the issue. He needed cash. And he needed that cash with the least amount of strings attached.

Outlaw has this elaborate conspiracy theory about Russia master-minding the war. But the reality is that the war was largely an accident; the outcome of a series of reciprocal actions in a system with no way to defuse security problems. War is a process, not an event, and a cycle of decisions, actions, and counter-actions quickly led to escalation. Only after the Russians realized that they were losing their influence (when Yanukovych was thrown out of office) did they move to seize Crimea and agitate in Donbas (Russia had 20+ years to move against an independent Ukraine if they desired annexation; why wait this long, at the moment of most desperation, if that's the goal?). As soon as he came to power, Yatsenyuk said he was on a 'suicide run' to push through economic reform. That reform was the selling off of state assets to private owners and EU membership, and blocking Russian influence. Of course Moscow freaked out. Ukraine was the breadbasket of the Russian Empire and there are alot of material and intangible interests tied up in it. This was never about ethnic Russians or their liberty and culture. It's always been about money and power.

mirhond
10-09-2014, 09:39 PM
http://www.0629.com.ua/news/638908?PageSpeed=noscript

Ukrainian soldier in Mariupol' gathering "aid" from the drivers on a road.

kaur
10-09-2014, 09:54 PM
AP, I'm slow and didn't get the point of your last post.

You asked


I agree that Russia has been active in agitating discontent and escalation in Donbas. The real question is when was this decision made.

I cited Putin's speech in FSB in February 2012.


The president warned that against the attempts to slow down the integration work on the post-Soviet space can be used a variety of enforcement mechanisms, including the so-called soft power.

Was this just a threat or was there already plan? Was the come back of this guy the beginning of planning?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-24178947
http://www.interpretermag.com/kremlin-grey-cardinal-surkovs-deal-for-a-donetsk-transdniestria/

Fact is that in Ukraine the Putin's red line was crossed by Maidan in the end of November. The rest we have followed since then.

AmericanPride
10-09-2014, 10:02 PM
Was this just a threat or was there already plan?

A plan for what? I think it's obvious the Russians had a plan - but when was the plan activated? And what was its scope? Was a contingency plan in response to the Maiden, et al? Or was it something more proactive and sinister?


Fact is that in Ukraine the Putin's red line was crossed by Maidan in the end of November.

I concur.

OUTLAW 09
10-10-2014, 06:41 AM
There is a decision point coming for the Russian leadership on whether to go full in and take the remaining portions of New Russia and grab the Odessa land corridor to the Crimea---14 Oct.

This is the date the Rada set to vote on the change in the non aligned status of the Ukraine--which now has the votes for change---this is a Russian red line as stated on 26 Sept in the UN by their FM.

Russian troop build ups continuing in the areas necessary to push forward and new modern Russian equipment not seen outside Russia is now in the Ukraine.

This will indicate if Putin wants further destruction of his economy in the name of New Russia or is he willing to admit that the new Russian UW strategy has failed in the Ukraine?

That UW strategy is built on a military victory.

mirhond
10-10-2014, 07:52 AM
Russia had 20+ years to move against an independent Ukraine if they desired annexation; why wait this long, at the moment of most desperation, if that's the goal?

That's simple: Russian military has been degrading untill recent years, but now it regained some strength, organization and popular support, while Ukrainian (which was second to Russian after collapse of USSR) allmost fall to neglect and disrepair - that's why it had troubles destroying a few thousands of lightly armed insurgents. So crackpot theorists have a point - after Maidan Ukraine is ideal place for covert ops and small war.

Ukrainian politics

http://podrobnosti.ua/video/power/2014/10/09/997320.html

Interview with Rada deputy Igor Skosar' who bought his office for 6 mln. $

kaur
10-10-2014, 10:53 AM
AP, let's try to backtrack. In the end of November 2013 Yanukovich didn't put signature to AA/DCFTA with EU.

8.12.2013 happened this in Kiev http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhwtsjFbQK4#t=20

In the beginning of Decembre, there was Russian compatriots meeting in Crimea with high rankink guests from Russian presidential administration, Duma, RF embassy, etc. Under their eyes locals started to beat fascism drum. 2 months before violent action in Maidan. What flags did you see in this video? Those slogans became favourite in Russian propaganda.


Stop Nazism, fascism, xenophobia and Russophobia in Ukraine!
STATEMENT


We, the authorized representatives of organizations of Russian compatriots in Ukraine, can not remain indifferent to the fact that hangs over Ukraine brown haze of neo-Nazism and fascism, xenophobia and Russophobia. Today in Kyiv impunity are thousands of marches and rallies of neo-Nazi thugs who chant fascist and xenophobic slogans in the media openly and widely promoted the principles of neo-Nazism and fascism. Nationalist parties and social organizations, of which there are several dozen in Ukraine, a number of media, as well as individual public servants and teachers of educational institutions, openly engaged in illegal neo-Nazi propaganda, and this ideology implanted in Ukrainian society, especially among young people.

We declare that if the Ukrainian authorities do not take against the spread of neo-Nazism and fascism preventive measures prescribed by the Constitution and laws of Ukraine, tomorrow may be too late.

Not so long ago, due to the recent political developments in the country, the so-called "high command VO" Trident "name of Stepan Bandera," issued a statement, which, in case of implementation by Ukraine of the Eurasian integration, they are going to open, "announce a large-scale mobilization of its members and supporters "and" ready to take up arms. "In a civilized country signatories of this statement for a long time would be arrested and prosecuted for public calls "an armed struggle against the state power."

In the same Lviv about one hundred and fifty youths wearing white masks marched through the center of the city, chanting racist and nationalist slogans, including: "Ukraine for Ukrainians", "Sieg Heil!", "Death to the enemies!" ... Lviv Mayor called this march "Shame on the city," but none of the participants in the march to justice has not been involved.

Impunity felt fascist speakers at the recent "Evromaydane" in Kiev, where some Diana Kamlyuk, otbyvshaya sentence for incitement to racial hatred, combined with violence and killing Nigerian openly proclaimed the idea of anti-Semitism and xenophobia, calling the victims of the Holocaust "Jewish soap" and denying the Nuremberg War Tribunal against Nazism and fascism. None of the "evrointegratorov" did not stop and did not condemn the provocative performance of ultra-nationalist, which according to the European laws would long ago have been behind bars.

Her supporters of a political party "Freedom" to break into the social and national demagogy to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, introduced a bill, which proposes to replace the term "The Great Patriotic War." The position of the neo-Nazis in this matter is clear. What can be "great" in collaborators of UPA, which fought a civil war against his Ukrainian people? The bloody trail of crimes UPA extends not only in Ukraine, but also in Belarus, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Yugoslavia.

Today, when Ukraine is preparing to meet the 70th anniversary of liberation from Nazi occupation by the Red Army, the descendants and heirs of the remnants of the Nazis openly raise their head. The tragic lessons of the Great Patriotic War, many Ukrainian politicians and bureaucrats are forgotten. In the state efforts ideological successors UPA - members of the party "Freedom" and their friends from the opposition, who call themselves "democrats and patriots" in full swing rewritten national history, distorted facts, defiled the memory of those who gave their lives in the struggle against the German -fashistskimi invaders.

Today bloody executioners and collaborators in western Ukraine erect monuments, they are called "fighters for freedom and independence of Ukraine." This monstrous lie offends cherished memory of our fathers and grandfathers who served in the Red Army, the partisans and underground selflessly fought for the independence of the Fatherland and the liberation of Ukraine from Nazi occupation. We are proud that our fathers and grandfathers broke the back of fascism and saved the world from Fascism.

Peoples court in Nuremberg Nazis and their accomplices (including UPA) were found to be responsible for all the crimes of Nazism. It was at the Nuremberg war crimes tribunal were presented compelling evidence that the UPA had never been members of the Ukrainian people and fighters for Ukrainian independence. It was Hitler's mercenaries, who took the oath of allegiance to Hitler, with arms in hand, in the composition of the Security Police and SD, punitive and police battalions in the structures of the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS in criminal, were directly involved in the implementation of war crimes against humanity.

UPA were particularly atrocity in the destruction of the civilian population - the elderly, children, women, humiliation and murder of prisoners of war. According to historians, at the hands of UPA fighters were killed and a half million Jews, more than a million Ukrainians to half a million Poles. Instead of creating the Book of Remembrance of the Victims of the OUN-UPA and condemn them as criminal organizations, local authorities in western Ukraine celebrate Hitler's mercenaries of UPA as "fighters for independence", rename their street names, fake history, whitewash hateful ideology and crimes Ukrainian fascism, contribute to the development of neo-Nazism in Ukraine.

We, the delegates V All-Ukrainian Conference of Russian Compatriots, appeal to the authorities of Ukraine and demand:

- Recognize the criminal ideology and activities of the OUN, UPA and their military forces, to prevent the promotion of neo-nazism and racial intolerance in the media, rehabilitation and glorification of Nazi collaborators, as well as manufacturing, distribution, display the fascist and Nazi symbols by political parties, associations of citizens, legal entities and persons;

- Ban neo-Nazi party All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom" and all the neo-Nazi movement in the Ukraine, to pass a law to ban all neo-wing radical organizations;

- Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and governments at all levels to give a principled assessment of any manifestations of neo-Nazism and political extremism, to bring to justice in accordance with the current legislation of persons engaged in the promotion of fascist and Nazi ideology, racial intolerance, as well as the production, distribution and demonstration of fascist and Nazi symbols ;

- Stop political speculation, aimed at the falsification of history, immediately adopt a law on criminal liability of persons who publicly deny and insult our heroic victory in the Great Patriotic War over Nazi Germany.


December 1, 2013

http://kr-eho.info/index.php?name=News&op=article&sid=11030

Couple days after this compatriots meeting some participants demanded


In Simferopol, the party of "Russian unity" organized in front of the Supreme Council of Crimea attempts to rally against the violent overthrow of the current government and in support of the Customs Union. The protesters threatened to demand the return of the Crimea in the Russian Federation, unless in a coup Ukraine will manage the neo-Nazis, reported IA "New Region".

http://www.eurasian.su/news/simferopol-mozhet-potrebovat-vozvrashchenie

"Russian Unity" leader Aksenov is now head of Crimea and asked help from Russia in February. Couple years ago his party got in Ukrainian elections in Crimea 4% of voters support.

AmericanPride
10-10-2014, 02:26 PM
Kaur,

There's been simmering separatist sentiment in Crimea since Ukrainian independence. So it's not at all surprising that the Russians capitalized on this when they seized the region. And given Ukraine's near constant political turmoil, it's also not surprising the Russians had a plan to to secure its own strategic interests. It's easy to read into hidden conspiracies by connecting these kinds events into some kind of master plan to make sense of the conflict, but it stretches the imagination to suggest that Moscow master-minded or engineered the Ukraine conflict from day one. The bottom line is that Moscow was better prepared than Washington for what followed the fall of Yanukoyvch's government. My complaint isn't so much that Washington interfered in Ukraine but that the U.S. was very short-sighted when it did so.

kaur
10-10-2014, 02:50 PM
AP,

1. Putin said


The president warned that against the attempts to slow down the integration work on the post-Soviet space can be used a variety of enforcement mechanisms, including the so-called soft power.

2. You answered.


Originally Posted by Kaur
Fact is that in Ukraine the Putin's red line was crossed by Maidan in the end of November.

I concur.

3. Now you say.


And given Ukraine's near constant political turmoil, it's also not surprising the Russians had a plan to to secure its own strategic interests. It's easy to read into hidden conspiracies by connecting these kinds events into some kind of master plan to make sense of the conflict, but it stretches the imagination to suggest that Moscow master-minded or engineered the Ukraine conflict from day one.

AP, how Putin's plan look like if they don't consider A, B, C scenarios or worst case scenario? AS I understand, you consider this to be mission slip? I think that mission started seriously slip after "downing passanger plane = Western sanctions " episode.

AmericanPride
10-10-2014, 03:47 PM
What do you mean by 'mission slip'?

kaur
10-10-2014, 05:29 PM
AP, I just can speculate at the moment that Russians thought after Yanukovich failure, that they can use window of opportunity to grab a land. 1. round in Crimea went smoothly. In Donbas plan started to kick back. People didn't want to rebel and Ukrainians started to fight.

What was the plan you were talking about?


it's also not surprising the Russians had a plan

AmericanPride
10-10-2014, 05:45 PM
What was the plan you were talking about?

I think the Russians had a military contingency plan in the event that their strategic interests in Crimea were threatened. I also think they at least had the foundations for a plan to support pro-Russian organizations in eastern Ukraine in the event of Ukrainian political turmoil. I do not think, however, the Russians had a plan to actually initiate revolution or civil war in Ukraine, and instead that they seized upon the 'window of opportunity', as you stated, to grab as much as they could before the door slammed shut in their face.

OUTLAW 09
10-10-2014, 07:45 PM
AP--notice how well the Ukraine plays the "game" and still you have a problem with "suckered in".

‘Russia Doesn’t Have a Majority in the CIS on Ukraine,’ Baranov Says

Paul Goble October 10, 2014

Staunton, October 10 – While the Commonwealth of Independent States has never been a democratic union of equals, it is nonetheless true that “the CIS is not just Russia,” as Ukrainian parliamentarians point out, and that Russia’s loss of control of this group on an issue so important to it may hasten the demise of the 22-year-old union.

That is the judgment of Anatoly Baranov, the editor-in-chief of the FORUM.msk portal, in reaction to the apparent decision of Ukraine to remain within the CIS at least for the time being and use the support it has there from Belarus and Kazakhstan to form its own anti-Moscow majority.

If that happens, he continues, then Moscow might be forced “to leave the CIS or come to terms with the fact that it isn’t the main thing there.” Ukraine, the Russian analyst continues, is “beautifully using” a situation in which it isn’t going to be expelled but might leave “only voluntarily.”

At present, Baranov says, Kyiv “intends to remain a member of the CIS, to use all existing preferences there, and at the same time to develop relations with the European Union and even NATO.” And that in turn, he suggests, could even allow Ukraine to drive Russia out of the post-Soviet space.

In that event, he continues, Moscow will have to “establish a new post-USSR space” consisting of itself and the “unrecognized republics of Karabakh, South Osetia and Abkhazia, Transdniestria and now the Donetsk Peoples Republic and the Luhansk Peoples Republic,” to which might be added “the Pamir Peoples Republic, Transcarpathia, the territory of the Lesser Zhuz in Kazakhstan and so on.”

This CIS in turn would be transformed into “an anti-Russian union,” furious “at the former metropolitan center. And that would leave Moscow with only the option to “support all-possible separatist tendencies in Europe – Catalonia and the Basques, Tuscany and Venice, Brittany, and Provence, Scotland and Ulster along with Wales, Bavaria and the former GDR.”

Not forgetting, of course, Baranov concludes, America, where a Moscow that found itself in such a position could play on Texas and Quebec as well as “Alaska, California and Hawaii, which as is well-known are Russian lands from time immemorial, parts of Vladimir Putin’s “Russian world.”

Baranov’s scenario is certainly over the top, but it does call attention to what others are pointing to as well (see Vitaly Portnikov in Grani.ru): the CIS and the related institutions Moscow has created to try to keep the post-Soviet space together and even promote its re-integration are in trouble and may soon be changed.

As Vestnik Kavkaza points out, this will be very much on public view in Mensk today where the inter-governmental council of the Eurasian Economic Commonwealth will vote itself out of existence as its remaining members shift to the new and closer Eurasian Economic Union. The CIS could be next.

Once the process of fragmentation begins - when groups are divided and alienated from one another - it's difficult to stop. When Yatsenyuk came into power, he was more concerned with pushing through his policy agenda than rebuilding the Ukrainian polity. Even with Poroshenko in the presidency, the Prime Minister, as far as Ukrainian domestic politics are concerned, represents the strongest obstacle to de-escalation and a settlement.

But again AP--here is no alive and doing well "fascism" in Russia?

AmericanPride
10-10-2014, 09:16 PM
AP--notice how well the Ukraine plays the "game" and still you have a problem with "suckered in".

Ukraine hasn't played 'the game' all that well. The conflict has created political turmoil in Kiev, killed upwards of 3,000 people, cost billions of dollars in damage, and resulted in the occupation of a substantial part of territory. That's not exactly a 'win' for a country mired in deep structural economic problems. Yatsenyk barely had control of the country when he came to power - (remember the threat to resign his government after the parliament failed to fund the army?) - so it's absurd to argue that he or anyone else in his cohort has master-minded this conflict from the start (or did the Russians master-mind it? You've gone back and forth...).


But again AP--here is no alive and doing well "fascism" in Russia?

I'm still waiting on those quotes from you. Anytime you're ready.

OUTLAW 09
10-11-2014, 07:47 AM
AP--you write many comments but fail to "understand" exactly what you are "seeing" but again that is a right left brain thing.

Remember I said to you Putin has a decision to make---collapse his economy around his ears or go militarily for the "final" victory. OR what I call a "death race".

IF and that is a REALLY BIG IF---IF this is true your complaints that sanctions cannot force anything MIGHT in fact be wrong.

BY the way go back six months into the Crimea thread and you will find that I indicated the single point of failure for Putin was the potential of "sinking oil prices" and that oil prices would in fact start sinking--boy did I take a hit on that comment BUT presto what are we seeing now?

THIS AP might in fact be the first indicator that Putin "blinked" and the "death race" decision was made.

Couple that with Putin's MASSIVE failure at the recent CIS meeting and his clash with the Moldavian President who stood his ground against Putin and one has a really really bad week for Putin. Remember AP the sanctions are also designed to give other countries a little more backbone and indirect support.

BUT there has to be more behind this statement than just being a potential smoke screen statement---IMO he is just trying to influence the coming Ukrainian RADA non alignment decision AND GET the sanctions lifted AND get his carrier from France.

DNR leader Zakharchenko agrees to 'silence mode' (translatable as real ceasefire) & withdrawal of artillery.

http://ria.ru/world/20141011/1027885660.html …

This indicates that now Russia is being forced by the Ukrainians to play the Ukrainian President's "game" not vice versa. AND Russia was not "suckered in"?

SO again AP you really do need to start analyzing and stop just writing words that have no meaning.

BUT see AP even though it "appears" Putin made a decision one then has to watch the battlefield as "his" actions speak louder than "his" words?

Massive attacks on #Ukrainian positions are concentrated near Debaltseve and Shchastia
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/877097845634356 …
pic.twitter.com/vVJc0Hmp4Z

AND again AP--sanctions do not work?---come on AP expand your horizons.

WASHINGTON, October 11 (RIA Novosti) - Chances of Russia regaining access to foreign capital markets will remain slim in 2015, the country's Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said Friday.

"Markets are closed for us," Storchak said in an answer to journalists in Washington. The Russian deputy finance minister went to the United States this week to meet finance chiefs of the world's 20 biggest economies.

Speaking about the outlook for raising capital on Asian markets, Storchak said Moscow was going to "study them at first." "We have never been present there," he explained.

OUTLAW 09
10-11-2014, 11:32 AM
AP--you write many comments but fail to "understand" exactly what you are "seeing" but again that is a right left brain thing.

Remember I said to you Putin has a decision to make---collapse his economy around his ears or go militarily for the "final" victory. OR what I call a "death race".

IF and that is a REALLY BIG IF---IF this is true your complaints that sanctions cannot force anything MIGHT in fact be wrong.

BY the way go back six months into the Crimea thread and you will find that I indicated the single point of failure for Putin was the potential of "sinking oil prices" and that oil prices would in fact start sinking--boy did I take a hit on that comment BUT presto what are we seeing now?

THIS AP might in fact be the first indicator that Putin "blinked" and the "death race" decision was made.

Couple that with Putin's MASSIVE failure at the recent CIS meeting and his clash with the Moldavian President who stood his ground against Putin and one has a really really bad week for Putin. Remember AP the sanctions are also designed to give other countries a little more backbone and indirect support.

BUT there has to be more behind this statement than just being a potential smoke screen statement---IMO he is just trying to influence the coming Ukrainian RADA non alignment decision AND GET the sanctions lifted AND get his carrier from France.

DNR leader Zakharchenko agrees to 'silence mode' (translatable as real ceasefire) & withdrawal of artillery.

http://ria.ru/world/20141011/1027885660.html …

This indicates that now Russia is being forced by the Ukrainians to play the Ukrainian President's "game" not vice versa. AND Russia was not "suckered in"?

SO again AP you really do need to start analyzing and stop just writing words that have no meaning.

BUT see AP even though it "appears" Putin made a decision one then has to watch the battlefield as "his" actions speak louder than "his" words?

Massive attacks on #Ukrainian positions are concentrated near Debaltseve and Shchastia
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/877097845634356 …
pic.twitter.com/vVJc0Hmp4Z

AND again AP--sanctions do not work?---come on AP expand your horizons.

WASHINGTON, October 11 (RIA Novosti) - Chances of Russia regaining access to foreign capital markets will remain slim in 2015, the country's Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said Friday.

"Markets are closed for us," Storchak said in an answer to journalists in Washington. The Russian deputy finance minister went to the United States this week to meet finance chiefs of the world's 20 biggest economies.

Speaking about the outlook for raising capital on Asian markets, Storchak said Moscow was going to "study them at first." "We have never been present there," he explained.

See AP--that is why I always check Russian "actions" vs "words".

While the DPR announced they would finally "honor" the ceasefire and the same message was carried by both the Russian RIA and Interfax THEN this starts again;

#Donetsk airport is burning again today after a period of heavy shelling earlier this morning.

pic.twitter.com/n4zgajXvhN

So Putin did not "blink" thus he is set on a "military victory" and the DPR and Russian statements were simply what they have always been since the Crimea---a "smokescreen" in their ongoing attempt o get the sanctions lifted and their carrier.

AGAIN you never did state what phase of the Russian UW strategy are we in?

OUTLAW 09
10-11-2014, 01:37 PM
Kaur,

Regional integration was also a project of Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Really, you could trace the ebb and flow of Russian desire for European integration as far back as Peter the Great. The alarmists today like to cast the Eurasian Union as the rebirth of the USSR, but that is not the case. Yes - historically and today views itself as a major power. Why is that alarming? So it should not be surprising that Russian elites also see their country as having an important role in regional and global affairs. Regional integration is the trend on all the continents.

The next evolution in regional economic integration will be building connections between these organizations. As far back as the 1950s, the Soviet Union proposed an architecture that would have integrated the USSR into the European structure, but this was rejected by the U.S., U.K., and France. Similar overtures have been floated in the years since but have not picked up traction largely because of mutual distrust. What's interesting is that the fragmentation of the international system through the proliferation of nation-states since World War II has not actually reversed the centuries long process of regional economic integration. How long can the U.S. and Russia sustain confrontation with one another while globalization is busy building connections between peoples and economies?

So where does Ukraine fit in all of this? What's usually underappreciated is the balancing act of Yanukovych. If he was such a henchmen of Moscow, why didn't he seek integration sooner? For his own political survival, neutrality was the only feasible option. He could accept Western integration (which he preferred at first) but it came at a high cost through austerity and reform, which would wipe out his domestic base. That's why he eventually rejected it, prompting the Maiden. The country's pending default is what forced the issue. He needed cash. And he needed that cash with the least amount of strings attached.

Outlaw has this elaborate conspiracy theory about Russia master-minding the war. But the reality is that the war was largely an accident; the outcome of a series of reciprocal actions in a system with no way to defuse security problems. War is a process, not an event, and a cycle of decisions, actions, and counter-actions quickly led to escalation. Only after the Russians realized that they were losing their influence (when Yanukovych was thrown out of office) did they move to seize Crimea and agitate in Donbas (Russia had 20+ years to move against an independent Ukraine if they desired annexation; why wait this long, at the moment of most desperation, if that's the goal?). As soon as he came to power, Yatsenyuk said he was on a 'suicide run' to push through economic reform. That reform was the selling off of state assets to private owners and EU membership, and blocking Russian influence. Of course Moscow freaked out. Ukraine was the breadbasket of the Russian Empire and there are alot of material and intangible interests tied up in it. This was never about ethnic Russians or their liberty and culture. It's always been about money and power.

See AP--your core problem is you neither speak Russian nor have worked with Russian staff officers in 2012 and 2013---and it tells.

The Russian 15th Peacekeeping Brigade is the Brigade I trained in staff processes and how they should function in protecting--notice AP I stated "protecting" the civilian population ---and they are deep inside the Ukraine.

Number one--Russia never does anything "by accident".

Number two --the Putin Doctrine has been slowly evolving since he first voiced a loose idea about it in 2001 in front of an ultra nationalist group meeting.

Number three--the Russia Army never absolutely never goes to war "quickly"--it is usually well thought through before they make a move--want to know why?--they are extremely weak on the logistics side and have been since WW2

Number four--this is not about money and or power---this is bluntly put a nationalist imperialist move defined under the "Putin Doctrine".

Number five---this is what we on the US call in the military a "trial run" of three things---1) the new military UW strategy, 2) the use of political warfare and 3) a massive test run of their informational warfare capabilities.

AND on top of all of this is in fact a test run of their new military weapon systems which are the centerpiece of their 2020 military strategy. You did read the article I linked you to concerning the Russian strategic strategy development---in that article you will find mention of 2020?

See AP---here you get it right BUT you failed to see that it comes out of their new military strategy---that is the key understand it thoroughly then you understand their next moves.

War is a process, not an event, and a cycle of decisions, actions, and counter-actions quickly led to escalation

You got the concept right but then failed to take the next step and ask yourself--what were/are the indicators and then you failed to take the indicators and match them to each phase of he new military strategy---it is really easy.

AND again AP exactly what phase are the Russian currently in?--I pointed it out to you a number of times but again no answer from you---they have worked the phases 1 thru 4 BUT then leapt straight into 6--WHY?

The WHY is easy and yet you ignore it--Russian was "suckered in"----the Ukrainian SF and SBU were able to a large degree negate the Russian SF and GRU units and the UA/NG and Independent BNs actually were winning which by the way no one in the West even thought it possible.

AP really take the time and thoroughly understand the phases of the Russian military UW strategy.

OUTLAW 09
10-11-2014, 02:05 PM
Ukraine hasn't played 'the game' all that well. The conflict has created political turmoil in Kiev, killed upwards of 3,000 people, cost billions of dollars in damage, and resulted in the occupation of a substantial part of territory. That's not exactly a 'win' for a country mired in deep structural economic problems. Yatsenyk barely had control of the country when he came to power - (remember the threat to resign his government after the parliament failed to fund the army?) - so it's absurd to argue that he or anyone else in his cohort has master-minded this conflict from the start (or did the Russians master-mind it? You've gone back and forth...).



I'm still waiting on those quotes from you. Anytime you're ready.


So AP--the Ukrainians "are not playing the game well"--think about it--they knew after Crimea Putin was coming for the eastern Ukraine, they knew the West ie US/NATO would never go to war to protect them, they "knew" both the US and the UK would not hold to the Budapest Memo.

AND they knew they were militarily weak against the Russia Army.

They simply swapped land for time and heavier sanctions--they actually got both did they not AP?

AND they did it with a minimum of fighting units relying heavily on the Independent BNs.

Did the region take a pounding yes, were civilians killed yes and was infrastructure destroyed yes---but it was going to be anyway when the Russian Army came in --just look at Georgia and Moldavia.

BUT did the Russian Army take a hit in return--massive--over 4000 killed over 3000 wounded and or missing and the area they control is still limited.
REMEMBER AP--the current Russian Army units inside the Ukraine are not "draftees---there are some of their best elite units and yet they are still struggling.

AND now the Ukrainians are holding their own---they have boxed the mercenaries and Russian Army into a specific area and have not given up any more territory and they have completed refitted and rearmed and most importantly redeployed to better defensive positions.

AND AP--that is not "playing the game well"?

OUTLAW 09
10-11-2014, 02:25 PM
So AP--the Ukrainians "are not playing the game well"--think about it--they knew after Crimea Putin was coming for the eastern Ukraine, they knew the West ie US/NATO would never go to war to protect them, they "knew" both the US and the UK would not hold to the Budapest Memo.

AND they knew they were militarily weak against the Russia Army.

They simply swapped land for time and heavier sanctions--they actually got both did they not AP?

AND they did it with a minimum of fighting units relying heavily on the Independent BNs.

Did the region take a pounding yes, were civilians killed yes and was infrastructure destroyed yes---but it was going to be anyway when the Russian Army came in --just look at Georgia and Moldavia.

BUT did the Russian Army take a hit in return--massive--over 4000 killed over 3000 wounded and or missing and the area they control is still limited.
REMEMBER AP--the current Russian Army units inside the Ukraine are not "draftees---there are some of their best elite units and yet they are still struggling.

AND now the Ukrainians are holding their own---they have boxed the mercenaries and Russian Army into a specific area and have not given up any more territory and they have completed refitted and rearmed and most importantly redeployed to better defensive positions.

AND AP--that is not "playing the game well"?

AND AP--there is a bitter and brutal SF guerrilla war going on inside the occupied region as well that no one is talking about---the number of killed Russian troops is steadily climbing and starting to cause concerns for the Russian MoD.

Rumour has it 1 of #Russian army SS-21 (Tochka-U) in #Rostov region was too close to #Ukraine border. It suddenly exploded. RUS were amazed.

OUTLAW 09
10-11-2014, 02:34 PM
Notice AP--notice how the Ukrainians are keeping the political pressure on both Russia and the mercenaries--nicely done so far.

Meaning --you both signed Minsk 1 and 2 --either hold to it or face more sanctions--actually Germany has echoed the same thoughts in the last two days, and France has also stated without a total successful Minsk 1 and 2 implementation--- no carrier.

ALL now possible as the sanctions, the falling ruble and a major oil pricing collapse place Putin into a corner--either go for the military victory and suffer even more sanctions or declare "victory" and go home.

KYIV. Oct 11 (Interfax) - Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council expects next week to bring a complete ceasefire in the east of the country with the release of all war prisoners, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from their current positions and the establishment of control over the Ukrainian-Russian border, the council spokesman said on Saturday.

"We do expect that next week will be the decisive point in the process of implementation of the ceasefire regime," Andriy Lysenko told a briefing in Kyiv.

He said shelling had already become less intensive. "We hope that next week parliament will pass the draft laws introduced by the president, and there will be understanding on the part of the international community about, among other things, enlarging the mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which would make it possible to control the situation in the conflict zone on a larger scale," Lysenko said.

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 07:08 AM
Interesting development from Putin--

1. is it a smokescreen in order to get his stock market and Rubel under control
2. is it a smokescreen because he is running out of money from oil sales
3. is it a smokescreen because he wants his French carrier
4. is it a smokescreen because actually his new UW military strategy failed because of moves by the Ukrainians to counter it militarily

OR is it exactly as this blog indicate--only temporary in order to gain time because he can move back in any time he wants to?

BUT notice not a single word was wasted on bringing out the Russian troops still inside the Ukraine.

Of course, one should never underestimate Putin's strategic thinking. May actually pullback troops (temporarily) to buy 'goodwill' & time.

No one should be getting excited or feeling optimistic about the news that Putin ordered troops home from "exercises in Rostov region."

BUT THEN this is still ongoing--so is it really just a smokescreen?

Please don't forget that Russia is still attacking Donetsk airport on a daily basis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-09/ukraine-sees-shelling-worsen-as-merkel-says-truce-not-met.html …
pic.twitter.com/PzUpF1q6x6

Sadly, barely a mention in the media that Putin is now moving Nuclear weaponry into Crimea.

OUTLAW 09
10-12-2014, 10:51 AM
Appears that the Russian announcement to pull back troops to their home bases was actually a "smokescreen".

Here is the more honest reason.

Putin orders 17,600 troops "on training" in Rostov region nr Ukraine border to pullback, return to base. Why? October conscription rotation!

What is more interesting are the "contract Russian troops" since their "contracts expire mid November " and winter is coming.

mirhond
10-14-2014, 03:14 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPPgWr91vjw

Licenсed Rada freak Irina Farion cites Hitler (1:30) and proclaims destruction of Moscow an only goal of true Ukrainians.

mirhond
10-15-2014, 01:28 PM
Talking to true Ukrainian nationalists is quite helpful - after some private conversations and public discussions on the forums I've figured out that their nationalistic fervor negatively correlates with pursuit to fight for Donbass - the most freaky and exclusive nationalists are the most willing to let Donbass go, because they consider it too much Russian and too much un-Ukrainian, therefore useless or even harmful to Ukrainian national unity. It looks like paradox - most disgusting nationalists sometimes are more peaceful then their moderate associates in this particular case.

kaur
10-15-2014, 03:36 PM
Vishnevsky concludes that Putin would do well to follow the Biblical injunction to examine the log in his own eye before looking for the dust in the eyes of others and “began the struggle with nationalism, racism, xenophobia, and chauvinism” at home instead of allowing it to grow there while denouncing it elsewhere.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/10/window-on-eurasia-putins-russia-prime.html

No wonder. Putin talks about Goebbels.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d83_1405016151

Firn
10-15-2014, 05:39 PM
So how limited in time could that limited war be?

I have no idea but a longer time horizon, measured in years, can sadly not be ruled out for a frozen-in aggression. Arguably more is more likely then less.

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 08:21 AM
So how limited in time could that limited war be?

I have no idea but a longer time horizon, measured in years, can sadly not be ruled out for a frozen-in aggression. Arguably more is more likely then less.

firn---you bring up an interesting question and it goes to the heart of what has been called "frozen conflicts" which actually really only applies to Moldavia and Georgia. Meaning Russian troops are in the country and no fighting is and or has been occurring since the split off of the enclaves.

I personally would not call what is going on in eastern Ukraine nowhere close to being "frozen" as the fighting is just as intense as it was before 5 Sept and Russian troops are still rotating in and out and are involved in direct fighting with Ukrainian SF types on a daily basis.

The ambushing/killing of a senior FSB General by Ukrainian SF is a good example of that.

The area of the mercenaries is in fact contained but that does not negate the constant shellings and fighting--thus on cannot refer to it as "frozen".

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 09:08 AM
AP took offense here with my comment---Russia was "suckered into eastern Ukraine".

But if we carefully look at every move by the current Ukrainian President and the Ukrainian PM---we tend to see a country threatened by a far superior military force that has been extremely effective in side stepping, delaying, and finally frustrating every move Putin is making--almost as if they have the Russian "playbook" in their hands.

While having a draft army and weak militarily they have held their own and have in some aspects contained currently the Russian military in a far smaller "New Russia" than Putin initially wanted, they have mobilized the West into a set of sectorial sanctions that are not coming off any time soon and they have ongoing election campaigning in the face of Russian aggressor.

One is starting to see the Russian "frustration" with the Ukraine coming now to the surface inside the Duma.

"Frustration" is probably also due to the sanctions, falling Rubel and a massively damaged economy due to falling oil prices--which they seem to blame on the Ukraine and the West.


MOSCOW, October 16. /TASS/. A lawmaker of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) has submitted a proposal to the government on introducing a special economic regime with Ukraine to revise the current contracts with Kiev and ban further deals, the Izvestia newspaper reported on Thursday.

Lawmaker Roman Khudyakov said Russia’s harsh economic policy will help bring a swift end to the armed conflict and force Kiev to comply with the agreements signed in the Belarusian capital Minsk last month during the talks mediated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

“The goal is very simple — forcing Ukraine to peace,” the newspaper quoted Khudyakov, a politician from Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria, as saying.

The proposed measures include a ban on the supplies of Ukrainian food, machinery and metalwork products to Russia. Russia could also block exports to Ukraine of “everything that may be used for military actions of the Ukrainian army,” including tank engines and KAMAZ trucks, the report says.

The Russian lawmaker has urged Prosecutor General Yury Chaika to check the legality of a $6.7 billion contract of the Kremenchug-based Kryukovsky Wagon Building Plant with St. Petersburg metro.

Khudyakov said the Ukrainian authorities have been repeatedly committing war crimes and violating the Minsk agreements on ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and called on Russia to react to Kiev’s actions.

“Although we cannot react with military force, we can respond economically,” he said.

“We should stop crimes like witch-hunt and terror against (Ukraine’s) own people and armed aggression against (self-proclaimed) Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. For example, if the Ukrainian army continues bombing territories of the republics, any gas supplies should end,” he said.

Under the proposal, Russia should also ban a range of Ukrainian businessmen from entering the country and freeze their property and assets on the Russian territory.

The special economic regime should not directly target ordinary Ukrainian citizens, the lawmaker said.

In mid-August, Ukraine’s parliament adopted a package of anti-Russian sanctions, giving the National Security and Defense Council the right to block assets, restrict trade operations, stop, fully or partially, the transit of resources, air flights and haulages via Ukrainian territory; prevent the outflow of capital, suspend the implementation of financial and economic obligations and annul licenses.

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 10:54 AM
We do not hear much out of the Crimea these days outside of constant reports of Crimea Tartars "disappearing" and ending up killed after being tortured or simply just "disappear for good".

THEN this shows up today as a first indicator that things are not going well for that "famously made statements Russia will support the Crimea forever".

Appears the ferry links are not able to bring in enough supplies for the entire Crimea---thus the need for a land corridor--which originally went through the Ukraine---which brings up the question again--will Putin go for it?

Reports say, a #famine could begin soon in Russian-occupied #Crimea ...
Kindergartens already without most of food.
http://censor.net.ua/news/307349/v_

davidbfpo
10-16-2014, 12:17 PM
So how limited in time could that limited war be?

I have no idea but a longer time horizon, measured in years, can sadly not be ruled out for a frozen-in aggression. Arguably more is more likely then less.

I do wonder - from my centrally heated home - whether the weather will freeze aggression sooner than the political-military.

On a quick look based on the climate in Rostov winter arrives next month as indicated on:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostov-on-Don#Climate

Yes the military can adjust and fight on. One assumes both sides have planned for a winter campaign.

As I have mentioned before what about the civil population in Eastern Ukraine? Fuel supplies appear likely not to be what is normal.

Firn
10-16-2014, 01:38 PM
Outlaw, indeed it is still a war with deaths, so we are still not in a 'frozen' state of conflict. It is also a considerable bigger conflict compared to Russia's war with Georgia, against a far bigger country and with far bigger consequences for Russia as a whole and it's economy specifically.

Davidbfpo. The question about the weather is a good one. The impact on the military operations will depend on the specific conditions, although road-bound mobility should be considerably better then in the bad old days.

Maybe some recall that in many urban areas of Ukraine the old soviet model with a central gas plant heating many appartments still prevails. Clearly it is a rather vulnerable an energy in-efficient* centralized method. Insulation is seemingly rare. The gas gifts of the past are partly responsible for that mess. As usual the common folk is paying the price.

All in all I fear it is a longer term conflict, with Putin still unwilling to recall his troops, the Ukrainians overall unwilling to give to the aggressor and the Western powers not inclinded to reduce the sanctions and pressure on Russia.

*It could be very efficient if done properly, of course.

Firn
10-16-2014, 01:50 PM
Appears the ferry links are not able to bring in enough supplies for the entire Crimea---thus the need for a land corridor--which originally went through the Ukraine---which brings up the question again--will Putin go for it?

I wonder how often bad weather does interrupt the ferry service over the Kerch. It played a considerable role in the ill-fated Soviet counter-offensive of 1942 supported from the mainland...

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 03:17 PM
Talking to true Ukrainian nationalists is quite helpful - after some private conversations and public discussions on the forums I've figured out that their nationalistic fervor negatively correlates with pursuit to fight for Donbass - the most freaky and exclusive nationalists are the most willing to let Donbass go, because they consider it too much Russian and too much un-Ukrainian, therefore useless or even harmful to Ukrainian national unity. It looks like paradox - most disgusting nationalists sometimes are more peaceful then their moderate associates in this particular case.

comrade mirhond--a great question for you and it is fairly easy for even you to answer.

If the Ukraine is controlled by a junta and is as Putin "claims" full of Nazi's then WHY are all the Russian and European "fascists" fighting for Russia?

OUTLAW 09
10-16-2014, 03:20 PM
I wonder how often bad weather does interrupt the ferry service over the Kerch. It played a considerable role in the ill-fated Soviet counter-offensive of 1942 supported from the mainland...

Agree with you---still am surprised that the level of supplies that Russia is supposed to have brought in seems to make no difference ---in fact seems to be virtually nothing ---and that would actually pressure Putin to indeed take the land corridor from the Ukraine that he so urgently needs--there is some indicators that gasoline is down to a one day supply.

kaur
10-19-2014, 10:46 AM
After completing a detailed analysis, Germany's foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), has concluded that pro-Russian rebels were responsible for the crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 on July 19 in eastern Ukraine while on route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-intelligence-blames-pro-russian-separatists-for-mh17-downing-a-997972.html#ref=rss

kaur
10-25-2014, 10:34 AM
New Policy Memo: Novorossiya: A Launching Pad for Russian Nationalists

Published 10-24-2014
The Ukraine crisis is a game changer for Russia’s domestic landscape. One of the most eloquent engines of this is the spread of the concept of “Novorossiya,” or New Russia. With origins dating from the second half of the 18th century, the term was revived during the Ukraine crisis and gained indirect official validation when Russian President Vladimir Putin used it during a call-in show in April 2014 to evoke the situation of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine. It appeared again in May when the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) decided to unite in a “Union of Novorossiya.” In August, a presidential statement was addressed to the “Insurgents of Novorossiya,” though the text itself referred only to “representatives of the Donbas.” The powerful pull of Novorossiya rests on its dual meaning in announcing the birth of a New Russia geographically and metaphorically. It is both a promised land to be added to Russia and an anticipation of Russia’s own transformation. As such, “Novorossiya” provides for an exceptional convergence of three underlying ideological paradigms that I briefly analyze here.

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article/new-policy-memo-novorossiya-launching-pad-russian-nationalists

Firn
10-25-2014, 06:11 PM
While there seems to be little new in the East, just a low intenstity war, the election tomorrow will likely rout the parties and players formerly friendly to Moscow. The Maidan movement and the Russian invasions have certainly completely changed the political landscape of one of the largest European nation and to some extent also the Ukrainians themselves (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-24/patriotism-trumps-graft-in-ukraines-wartime-election#p1):


War may have ended the era when Ukrainians traded their votes for some cooking oil and flour.

“I took the buckwheat but voted my heart,” reads an Internet meme of an elderly lady displaying a rude gesture on Twitter and Facebook from an Internet group called Our Guard. It’s urging voters not to exchange ballots for food before tomorrow’s general election.

Sad to see an old lady reduced in this state and all the poverty in Ukraine in which the population suffered so much. In any case enemy invasion tends to stir patriotic feelings and upheaval and so far this war does.

BTW: A Night in War-Shattered Lugansk (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/a-night-in-war-shattered-lugansk-russian-soldiers-share-vodka-with-western-journalists) is a nice read about a backdrop of the election.

Firn
10-27-2014, 05:24 PM
While there is still a lot in flux Radio Free Europe came up with ten quick take-aways from Ukraine's vote (http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-vote-takeaways-things-we-learned/26659694.html):


The West-Russia divide is no longer relevant in parliament

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine's parliamentary battles have largely taken place between so-called pro-Western factions and pro-Russian ones. No more. For the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the country's parliament will be dominated by parties that support strong ties with Europe. The likely top three parties all support EU accession and, combined, upwards of 75 percent of the seats are expected to be held by pro-Europe deputies.

While it was pushed down in part by the Russian occupation of areas like the Donbas the relative low turnout and it's regional graduation are in my opinion also of great importance. For a decent analysis we have to wait for more and better data.

davidbfpo
10-29-2014, 11:13 AM
Today amidst my email was a notice from a cruise line that in 2015 they would no longer call @ Odessa (Ukr) or @ Yalta (Crimea), which amounts to twelve visits, each with a conservative 2k passengers. Nor would three other smaller cruise lines.

mirhond
10-29-2014, 04:24 PM
Another piece of hilarious nonsence from Ukromedia:

http://www.trust.ua/news/102223-spisok-pogibshih-pod-mariupolem-popolnilsya-morpehom-geroem-rossii.html


В числе погибших под Мариуполем – Герой России, капитан второго ранга Кирилл Разум.
«Потери: 159 отряд ОСПН БПДСС В/Ч 87200 вел бои в районе Мариуполя. Списочные потери 39 человек в том числе: зам по диверсиям капитан второго ранга Кирилл Разум – Герой России; командир второго диверсионного отряда капитан третьего ранга Марасин Константин; командир разведгруппы капитан-лейтенант Мизин Николай», – пишет Васильева.

http://www.trust.ua/files/photo/4/0000043171-morpeh-rossiya.jpg

Hero of Russia, captain Kirill Razum, commander Marasin Konstantin, and leutenant-commander Mizin Nikolai along with other marines got killed under Mariupol'

Is there such person ever exists? Let's check:

List of Heroes of Russian Federation

http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/16970

Nope, there is no such person in this list. But funny bull$hit isn't over, let's compare the names of "Russian marines" with fiction character's names from ####ty action novell "Piranha" (1999) by Bushkov Alexander

http://royallib.ru/book/bushkov_aleksandr/piranya_perviy_brosok.html

http://royallib.ru/data/images/7/cover_7590.jpg

Кирилл Разум - Кирилл Мазур

Kirill Razum - Kirill Mazur

Марасин Константин - Самарин Константин

Marasin Konstantin - Samarin Konstantin

Мизин Николай - Зимин Николай

Mizin Nikolai - Zimin Nikolai

Spooky coinsidence?
Author of this crap - feral anti-Putin activist Elena Vasil'eva - doesn't even bothered to invent personal names, she just swapped the syllables in the fiction ones! :D
Who will die next? FSB agent Anna Karenina? Volunteer Evgeni Onegin? Chechen mercenary Haji Murat? Old cossack Ivan Denisovich?
ps. in case you didn't get a joke - there are characters by Tolstoi, Pushkin and Solzhenitzin.
:rolleyes:

researched by http://shrek1.livejournal.com/1097865.html

mirhond
10-29-2014, 05:00 PM
oh, gawd, the stream of bat$hit is endless...:eek:

SBU captured an FSB general who agitated National Guard to roit.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/10/24/7041811/

http://qph.is.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-44d0b006e6288904f2259d192593ebc0?convert_to_webp=t rue

Why SBU thinks this guy is an FSB general? Well, he has a deputy associate creds, a presscard, and because he says so! As I've told you many times before - FSB agents never lie!

OUTLAW 09
10-30-2014, 06:27 AM
oh, gawd, the stream of bat$hit is endless...:eek:

SBU captured an FSB general who agitated National Guard to roit.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/10/24/7041811/

http://qph.is.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-44d0b006e6288904f2259d192593ebc0?convert_to_webp=t rue

Why SBU thinks this guy is an FSB general? Well, he has a deputy associate creds, a presscard, and because he says so! As I've told you many times before - FSB agents never lie!



AND mirhond the Ruble just keeps on falling against the USD---wow what a superpower--cannot even protect their own currency and you expect it to protect Russian citizens?

Russian central bank has thrown over 21B USD of your Russian tax/oil money at the problem and it is still falling.

Rouble collapse accelerating this morning: straight through 43 and very close to 44 to the dollar

pic.twitter.com/YI301CmYWG

davidbfpo
10-31-2014, 05:45 PM
Somewhat to my surprise the Ukraine, Russia, the EU and IMF have reached an agreement on gas supplies to the Ukraine from Russia, with debts paid and support for paying for the new gas:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29842505

Strange. "Make war and supply gas" is not the headline. One wonders if the Russians are desperate for the foreign exchange windfall.

mirhond
10-31-2014, 08:08 PM
Somewhat to my surprise the Ukraine, Russia, the EU and IMF have reached an agreement on gas supplies to the Ukraine from Russia, with debts paid and support for paying for the new gas:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29842505

Strange. "Make war and supply gas" is not the headline. One wonders if the Russians are desperate for the foreign exchange windfall.

Care to explain why are you even surprised? Cash is cash, duh.
I'am surpised that you haven't thought about alternative explanation: not only Russians are desperate for cash, but Europenans are desperate for gas (which otherwise will be stolen by Ukraine, if not paid for), besides - winter is coming.

davidbfpo
10-31-2014, 09:53 PM
Mirhond you asked:
Care to explain why are you even surprised?

It is not the money or the need for gas in the Ukraine and beyond. My surprise is that amidst a small war and the oh-so diplomatic response by NATO, quadrilateral talks succeed in reaching an agreement. Perhaps it was because the diplomats were not there, rather the energy supply experts and those with deep pockets?

kaur
11-02-2014, 09:01 AM
This article suits to Outlaw and Americanpride fascism discussion.




Russians Re-write History to Slur Ukraine Over War
Simon Shuster / Moscow Oct. 29, 2014

The trio of German historians, as well as a handful of their colleagues from Eastern Europe, flew into Moscow last week for what they thought would be a conference on the history of Nazi war crimes. It was the fifth in a series of international summits held every other year since 2006,

...

Outside the hall, Borsche seemed at a loss for words as he waited in the coat-check line. He had served as one of the initiators of the conference and its co-chairman, flying in from Germany for the occasion to discuss a shared history of suffering during World War II. But he says he had no idea that his Russian colleagues would use it as a chance to promote their political agenda against Ukraine. “That’s not correct,” he told me. If there is some lesson to be learned from the experience, it’s a familiar one, he said: “The more people are convinced of their own opinion, the more they become estranged from other opinions. That’s a real difficult problem.” And as Russia sets out to redefine what Nazism means, it is a problem that Western historians will somehow have to face.

http://time.com/3545855/russia-ukraine-war-history/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+time/topstories+%28TIME:+Top+Stories

mirhond
11-13-2014, 05:27 PM
http://cs620122.vk.me/v620122904/1f900/Sk5f6wGRq50.jpg

Ukrainians ritually attak Lenin. It looks like "hunter-gatherers kill a dimmy bear" reenactment.
What a historical irony! Those poor souls destroy statues and beat the $hit out of portraits of a man who had actually created Ukraine in its current borders.

OUTLAW 09
11-14-2014, 02:05 PM
http://cs620122.vk.me/v620122904/1f900/Sk5f6wGRq50.jpg

Ukrainians ritually attak Lenin. It looks like "hunter-gatherers kill a dimmy bear" reenactment.
What a historical irony! Those poor souls destroy statues and beat the $hit out of portraits of a man who had actually created Ukraine in its current borders.

Mirhond---you seem to really know Ukrainian historical borders and again you are wrong---Stalin killed how many Ukrainians when he was in power?

noticed the great Russian Federation is now "allowing" Ukranian products into the Crimea---WHY because the RF cannot feed and support their "annexed" Crimea with a ferry.

notice the same thing now in the "from Russian mercenary/troops occupied Ukraine"---

check out the map mirhond------

#Distaster #map with some reported humanitarian emergency situations appearing in the #Russian_occupied territories.
pic.twitter.com/Zt5CxjjOKS

at least check your facts correct mirhond

kaur
11-14-2014, 10:12 PM
Putin arrives to Australia with war ship escort. At the same time Russian most popular news show Vremja shows fake news about downed Boeing photoshopped pics, letter in English from MIT from person bloggers can't find etc. I hope this will soon published in English.

http://zyalt.livejournal.com/1203282.html?page=3

TASS is selling "official" version in English.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/759835

kaur
11-15-2014, 12:30 PM
Fake story about Boeing in English.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2835088/Is-moment-MH17-shot-flew-Ukraine-Russian-state-broadcaster-produces-satellite-images-showing-fighter-jet-attack.html

kaur
11-15-2014, 01:47 PM
Do you remeber RF ministry of defence presentation about Boeing? They were talking about SU-25 and presented pics from air traffic control centre. Leontyev was talking about another type of plane. Who should belive, mirhond?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4bNPInuSqfs

kaur
11-15-2014, 09:38 PM
Some months ago we had Spanish air traffic controller Carlos, who just disappeared. Now we have guy from US.


KIEV, Ukraine — The man whose email was used as proof that Ukraine shot down MH17 told BuzzFeed News that he had found the image on a forum and was upset that it had been used so widely on Russian TV.
George Bilt—who said he is an MIT graduate and aviation expert with 26 years experience, but would not provide further biographical details—said that he had come across an earlier report by the Russian Union of Engineers (RUE) blaming a Ukrainian fighter jet for the crash, and thought that it concurred with his own amateur findings. When he saw the picture online, Bilt wrote to Andreyevsky, the “expert” from the broadcast, with a link to the forum where the image was posted, clearly stating that he had found it there.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/russian-tv-airs-clearly-fake-image-to-claim-ukraine-shot-dow

davidbfpo
11-15-2014, 11:07 PM
Apparently President Putin has met a chilly, if not wintery reception at the G2 @ Brisbane, so much so he might leave early:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-30067612

I note Twitter reported his meeting with Chancellor Merkel last over three hours.

Meanwhile the Gold Council reports via the Daily Telegraph 'Putin stockpiles gold as Russia prepares for economic war':
The latest research from the World Gold Council reveals that the Kremlin snapped up 55 tonnes of the precious metal - far more than any other nation - in the three months to the end of September as prices began to weaken.

Vladimir Putin's government is understood to be hoarding vast quantities of gold, having tripled stocks to around 1,150 tonnes in the last decade. These reserves could provide the Kremlin with vital firepower to try and offset the sharp declines in the rouble.Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11226240/Putin-stockpiles-gold-as-Russia-prepares-for-economic-war.html?


Just curious about this report. Is he buying gold within Russia or on the international market? Since SWC has many posts about the Ruble devaluing, being unable to borrow internationally and more - where did the money to buy gold come from?

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11226240/Putin-stockpiles-gold-as-Russia-prepares-for-economic-war.html?)

kaur
11-16-2014, 08:34 AM
David, as far as I understand Russia is buying gold within Russia. Usually local producers sell it to VTB or Sberbank. Both banks then sell it to local commercial banks and foreign buyers. Foreign buyers don't like to buy gold at the moment due to sanctions. Central bank is truying to fill their role.

OUTLAW 09
11-16-2014, 10:17 AM
David, as far as I understand Russia is buying gold within Russia. Usually local producers sell it to VTB or Sberbank. Both banks then sell it to local commercial banks and foreign buyers. Foreign buyers don't like to buy gold at the moment due to sanctions. Central bank is truying to fill their role.

And current gold prices are on the falling side--maybe a way of trying to kept them steady as the Ruble is really taking a beating and the just passed 2015 budget still reflects the price of oil at 100USD.

OUTLAW 09
11-24-2014, 12:01 PM
Seems to be a steady Russian especially Putin drumbeat that confirms his inherent fear of the Maidan affecting the rest of Russia.

Taken from the TASS interfere with Putin this weekend---a really telling statement by Putin.

Putin concludes if Ukraine totally leaves Kremlin orbit, only question of time before other regions seek autonomy from Kremlin.

So really the Russian claim of needing their own "sphere of influence" is simply a smokescreen argument.---they are simply attempting to protect the Motherland.

mirhond
11-27-2014, 04:03 PM
As far as "MH 17" thread is closed - could anyone explain why Malaysia isn't a part of investigation team, as this article claims, or even is this claim true:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-downing-of-flight-mh-17-why-is-malaysia-not-part-of-the-joint-investigation-team-jit/5415863

davidbfpo
11-27-2014, 04:30 PM
As far as "MH 17" thread is closed - could anyone explain why Malaysia isn't a part of investigation team, as this article claims, or even is this claim true:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-downing-of-flight-mh-17-why-is-malaysia-not-part-of-the-joint-investigation-team-jit/5415863

Mirhond,

A number of open sources refer to Malaysian participation in the initial JIT meetings in July 2014, on the investigation; notably Eurojust's press release:http://www.eurojust.europa.eu/press/PressReleases/Pages/2014/2014-07-28.aspx

I note that Wiki refers to Malaysia not being invited to join the four nation Joint Investigation Team (JIT), which is a criminal investigation, not a safety investigation and the members are the Netherlands, Belgium, Ukraine and Australia. It is not clear why Belgium is a member. Malaysian investigators were involved it appears in the safety investigation:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

There are numerous references to a 'secret deal' between the JIT members that to date has meant Malaysia is excluded.

OUTLAW 09
11-27-2014, 08:52 PM
Mirhond,

A number of open sources refer to Malaysian participation in the initial JIT meetings in July 2014, on the investigation; notably Eurojust's press release:http://www.eurojust.europa.eu/press/PressReleases/Pages/2014/2014-07-28.aspx

I note that Wiki refers to Malaysia not being invited to join the four nation Joint Investigation Team (JIT), which is a criminal investigation, not a safety investigation and the members are the Netherlands, Belgium, Ukraine and Australia. It is not clear why Belgium is a member. Malaysian investigators were involved it appears in the safety investigation:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

There are numerous references to a 'secret deal' between the JIT members that to date has meant Malaysia is excluded.

reason for the four--it is a criminal investigation thus Holland and Australia as being the countries with the most civilians killed, Belgium represents the Europol/Boeing as owners of the aircraft and air crash elements and the Ukraine --where the plane crashed.

Russia excluded as it had nothing to do with either the plane as manufacturer, or was the airline and or they were not inside the Ukraine as they claim---Russia took months before they turned over their ATC tapes just recently to the investigators

they did try via Russia TV 24 several weeks ago to release a new alleged shot down version blaming the Ukrainians again but it was torn apart by bellingcat within two hours after it was shown on TV inside Russia and it was in fact a badly produced photo shopped attempt and poorly done

understand Malaysian investigators while civil crash types have a lot of input as their crash findings ie the metal frags from the BUK were embedded in the various aircraft pieces and in the bodies of those killed especially the pilot and the copilot are automatically passed to the criminal investigation side

early released crash investigation evidence has shown that it was probably downed by a missile and the plane suffered a major air breakup after being hit with a major amount of fragmentation

Russian theory of Ukrainian jet shot down has not been proven and again the latest Russian TV video and alleged satellite info was really poorly done and disproven and the Russian government has not attempted to repeat that theory again

Russia as a suspect in the shot down of the aircraft is not being told anything by the criminal investigation side but they have been attempting to get initial results but have been turned down by the criminal team

there was a small recent Russian comment that referenced the latest video that surfaced two weeks ago filmed seconds after the bulk of the plane crashed and was burning near a small village--many of the villagers were filmed and indicated they had seen a missile fired, fly and hit the plane==video was validated and geo tagged as accurate---Russia has not said a word about the video nor attempted to discredit it as they have attempted to do in the past

bellingcat just recently released a 35 page reanalysis of all open source and clearly identified the Russian SAM unit involved and the exact BUK launcher--interesting that they used the armored vehicle skirts of the convoy and identified the exact BUK launcher.

Origin of the Separatists’ Buk: A Bellingcat Investigation
Web - https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/11/08/origin-of-the-separatists-buk-a-bellingcat-investigation/ …
PDF - https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Origin-of-the-Separatists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf …

Who did what to whom? Eliot Higgins (@Brown_Moses ) digging into the #MH17 story. #verification #debunking #UGC
http://youtu.be/flCqN8_0cX4

New video of the #MH17 crash site from just after the crash, translation via @el_roosevelt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UpMBH8NmG4

Russian State Television Shares Fake Images of MH17 Being Attacked via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2014/11/14/russian-state-television-shares-fake-images-of-mh17-being-attacked/ …

OUTLAW 09
11-28-2014, 06:26 AM
reason for the four--it is a criminal investigation thus Holland and Australia as being the countries with the most civilians killed, Belgium represents the Europol/Boeing as owners of the aircraft and air crash elements and the Ukraine --where the plane crashed.

Russia excluded as it had nothing to do with either the plane as manufacturer, or was the airline and or they were not inside the Ukraine as they claim---Russia took months before they turned over their ATC tapes just recently to the investigators

they did try via Russia TV 24 several weeks ago to release a new alleged shot down version blaming the Ukrainians again but it was torn apart by bellingcat within two hours after it was shown on TV inside Russia and it was in fact a badly produced photo shopped attempt and poorly done

understand Malaysian investigators while civil crash types have a lot of input as their crash findings ie the metal frags from the BUK were embedded in the various aircraft pieces and in the bodies of those killed especially the pilot and the copilot are automatically passed to the criminal investigation side

early released crash investigation evidence has shown that it was probably downed by a missile and the plane suffered a major air breakup after being hit with a major amount of fragmentation

Russian theory of Ukrainian jet shot down has not been proven and again the latest Russian TV video and alleged satellite info was really poorly done and disproven and the Russian government has not attempted to repeat that theory again

Russia as a suspect in the shot down of the aircraft is not being told anything by the criminal investigation side but they have been attempting to get initial results but have been turned down by the criminal team

there was a small recent Russian comment that referenced the latest video that surfaced two weeks ago filmed seconds after the bulk of the plane crashed and was burning near a small village--many of the villagers were filmed and indicated they had seen a missile fired, fly and hit the plane==video was validated and geo tagged as accurate---Russia has not said a word about the video nor attempted to discredit it as they have attempted to do in the past

bellingcat just recently released a 35 page reanalysis of all open source and clearly identified the Russian SAM unit involved and the exact BUK launcher--interesting that they used the armored vehicle skirts of the convoy and identified the exact BUK launcher.

Origin of the Separatists’ Buk: A Bellingcat Investigation
Web - https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/11/08/origin-of-the-separatists-buk-a-bellingcat-investigation/ …
PDF - https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Origin-of-the-Separatists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf …

Who did what to whom? Eliot Higgins (@Brown_Moses ) digging into the #MH17 story. #verification #debunking #UGC
http://youtu.be/flCqN8_0cX4

New video of the #MH17 crash site from just after the crash, translation via @el_roosevelt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UpMBH8NmG4

Russian State Television Shares Fake Images of MH17 Being Attacked via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2014/11/14/russian-state-television-shares-fake-images-of-mh17-being-attacked/ …


#MH17 investigators still awaiting #US,#Russia|n intelligence reports http://reut.rs/130O2Ml

This is an interesting standoff by both countries:

The US ISR assets definitely picked up the launch and identified the missile flare and definitely geo located the launch point---but to release the accuracy then allows Russia to fully understand the abilities of the satellites on the ISR side--that is why the US and the UNSC US ambassador always quote and use open source materials ie bellingcat

The Russians do not want to provide anything as it will then in fact indicate that it was their own BUK thus they will complain and complain about the investigation not being fair etc. but in the end provide absolutely nothing.

The Dutch will then fall back on the bellingcat and other open source materials to include the Ukrainian voice intercept just moments after the shot down and the mercenaries confirmed to be accurate but naturally it was not them.

Coupled with the fragments found in the aircraft and in the bodies of those killed as the BUK fragmentation is easy to ID. as the West has the warheads and technical manuals.

Will end the end point to Russian BUK fired by a mixture of mercenary and Russian personnel.

And naturally the Russian response--"it ain't us".

OUTLAW 09
11-28-2014, 10:52 AM
I added photos to the MH17 portfolio on my website, work from the past 2 weeks following the MH17 Recovery Mission.

http://pierrecrom.nl/mh17#pic-24

davidbfpo
11-28-2014, 04:25 PM
This Daily Beast article 'Ukraine Militias Warn of Anti-Kiev Coup:The men behind Ukraine’s nationalist militias are looking to replace the fumbling government in Kiev one way or another' actually has far more, hence my title:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/28/ukraine-militias-threaten-anti-kiev-coup.html

An example:
The state-owned Motor Sich engine factory in Zaporizhia, a southeastern city on the Dnieper River 140 miles from the separatist stronghold of Donetsk, has been the most flagrant exporter. Company executives make no bones about Sich’s exports to Russia of military helicopter engines. Victor Chuyko, the president of the Association of Aviation Engine-Builders, claims the sales are legal on the grounds that “Poroshenko’s decree bans only deliveries directly to the Russian defense ministry.

mirhond
11-28-2014, 10:16 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2Ymaq4m1zY

Alchevsk, Liganskaya oblast': People's revolutionary court in acton.

in short: one-timer rapist got avay with term in penal company, other serial one got lead poisoning. Really grave scene, Senatus bestia.

OUTLAW 09
11-30-2014, 09:07 AM
Article goes a long way in explaining the current Russian anti Nazi campaign against the Ukraine.

Names Russian personnel and organizations behind the defamation campaign ie info war campaign pointed towards the West media.

well worth the read

http://anton-shekhovtsov.blogspot.de/2014/02/pro-russian-network-behind-anti.html?spref=tw

mirhond
11-30-2014, 11:31 AM
Ten seconds with Google, and volia!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54e4kj7OpbQ

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/54e4kj7OpbQ/0.jpg

kaur
11-30-2014, 01:25 PM
mirhond, this DPR batallion СССР has nice gear. I wonder were they bought the stuff? From corner shop like Putin said/lied in the beginning of March? How do you like this За Сталину/For Stalin slogan?

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1924071.html

Stalin didn't have palaces, banks, oil and gas firms etc like those guys do. Oil prices over 100 $ Putin has managed to buy loyality of people. When people start ask questions? mirhond, what do you think?

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/dec/18/how-he-and-his-cronies-stole-russia/?insrc=hpma

Those guys in mirhond's video have German surplus helmets. Maybe the helmets were painted befor shipping by some jokers?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6110518.stm

mirhond
11-30-2014, 05:20 PM
mirhond, this DPR batallion СССР has nice gear. I wonder were they bought the stuff? From corner shop like Putin said/lied in the beginning of March? How do you like this За Сталину/For Stalin slogan?


1.You don't really want me to answer a rethorical question, do you?
2. Why do you bother what I think about this particular slogan? I fail to see why it is important.


Stalin didn't have palaces, banks, oil and gas firms etc like those guys do. Oil prices over 100 $ Putin has managed to buy loyality of people. When people start ask questions? mirhond, what do you think?

0_o ??
1. Again, I fail to see what Stalin and Putin have in common.
2. When Putin&Co run short of funds, perhaps.


Those guys in mirhond's video have German surplus helmets. Maybe the helmets were painted befor shipping by some jokers?

I'll give you a more probable assumption - they are not real soldiers, but airgun reenactors.

OUTLAW 09
11-30-2014, 06:44 PM
Ten seconds with Google, and volia!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54e4kj7OpbQ

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/54e4kj7OpbQ/0.jpg


an comrade mirhond ten seconds on RT shows the following---evidently a very none Russian Russian in Russian uniform in Donetsk today that is if you accept RT as the truth?

Russian soldiers, absolutely official in #Donetsk city today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTFSZM8ca2o …
pic.twitter.com/pTi0RE1wRP

OUTLAW 09
11-30-2014, 06:58 PM
1.You don't really want me to answer a rethorical question, do you?
2. Why do you bother what I think about this particular slogan? I fail to see why it is important.



0_o ??
1. Again, I fail to see what Stalin and Putin have in common.
2. When Putin&Co run short of funds, perhaps.



I'll give you a more probable assumption - they are not real soldiers, but airgun reenactors.

And this T72B3 Russian model is only produced and used in Russia not the Ukraine AND Putin allows no Russian heavy weapons into the Ukraine---come on comrade mirhond think

BREAKING THE #RUSSIA|N T-72B3 IS BACK IN #UKRAINE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IUTOdhsxaA …
pic.twitter.com/Lc9vuX2Y3L

kaur
11-30-2014, 07:48 PM
Dear mirhond, this СССР thing is just wierd. Commander, who was interviewed said just during that time system was fair and people had everyting. Now he just wants to work. You spoke about golden age in Russian psyche topic. Maybe this guy wants to live in Finland, Sweden, Germany etc where social system is in much better conditon that in Soviet Union ever was? Another warlord Mozgovoi spoke also about world without oligarhs and fair system. Maybe they should try this system at home? How about Polish success story after collapse of Soviet block. If I remember correctly, Ukraine and Poland were int the same situation. Now, almost 25 years later Ukraine tried to move to the track Poland took then, the European track. Russians didn't like this another attempt. Rest of the story you know. The solution to that guy was СССР. I just can't belive this.

mirhond
11-30-2014, 09:35 PM
The solution to that guy was СССР. I just can't belive this.

Yes. that's retroactive and backward thinking, believe it or not. Many post-Soviets think this way. The fun is - those Nazi wannabes think exactly the same, they just replaced rusty communist bull$hit with rusty nazi bull$hit or generic parochial bull$hit.

ps. When you citing Colonel Cassad don't hesitate to post relevant pics
https://pp.vk.me/c621718/v621718161/813/-axgZqd0JzM.jpg

and relevant comments

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/476285/476285_1000.png

Ukraine is the last citadel of Europe. Is she a state of scum ruled by Heebs or a nation which managed to keep healthy national and race instincts intact? .. a beacon for the world in the ocean of multirace and multicultural bogey

OUTLAW 09
12-01-2014, 06:12 AM
And this T72B3 Russian model is only produced and used in Russia not the Ukraine AND Putin allows no Russian heavy weapons into the Ukraine---come on comrade mirhond think

BREAKING THE #RUSSIA|N T-72B3 IS BACK IN #UKRAINE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IUTOdhsxaA …
pic.twitter.com/Lc9vuX2Y3L

This makes the identification of these strictly Russian tanks far easier for those especially Putin to recognize his own tanks that he has claimed are not in the Ukraine.

Learn to spot a #Russia|n T72 BM in #Donbas #Ukraine

pic.twitter.com/6ypjxzxsUL

kaur
12-01-2014, 07:21 AM
My friend mirhod, how many of those guys are among Ukrainian troops? What is the percent?

Some warriors from Russia http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/294200/vot_kto_voyuet_protiv_ukrainy_v_donbasse_rossiyisk ie_natsisty_iz_spetsnaza_grom_fotoreportaj

mirhond, it seems that cossack leader Kozitsyn is back in Russia. Strelkov is there also. You asked about Boeing episode some days ago. Do you think that Strelkov and Kozitsyn could be good witnesses in this case?

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SlJFYmSVu0g

OUTLAW 09
12-01-2014, 09:57 AM
My friend mirhod, how many of those guys are among Ukrainian troops? What is the percent?

Some warriors from Russia http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/294200/vot_kto_voyuet_protiv_ukrainy_v_donbasse_rossiyisk ie_natsisty_iz_spetsnaza_grom_fotoreportaj

mirhond, it seems that cossack leader Kozitsyn is back in Russia. Strelkov is there also. You asked about Boeing episode some days ago. Do you think that Strelkov and Kozitsyn could be good witnesses in this case?

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SlJFYmSVu0g

kaur---they are in fact witnesses thus being pulled back especially after the latest Russian photo shopped attempt to blame the Ukrainian jet failed badly within two hours after they aired the Russian TV program.

open source bloggers torn the program apart and displayed three major glaring fakes inside their presentation that the Russian government could not counter---if you noticed they have not said a single word about it since then.

OUTLAW 09
12-01-2014, 10:22 AM
Amazing that the rag tag Ukrainian Army with no military assistance from the west is getting the hang of using drones--drones by the way crowdsourced via Facebook and donations.

In some way this rag tag army is showing the US Army that in fact an army can be both adaptive and resourceful on limited funding and fight a war at the same time---makes one wonder if OCO funding during the last 13 years put the term "adaptive" on hold as it was not necessary to adapt.

This drone by the way has sound capture abilities so one can even hear the mercenaries shooting at the drone and missing.

Incredible footage of a Ukrainian drone chasing a tank and getting fired at. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyJ7kwItLfs …
pic.twitter.com/COUXAlldXg

OUTLAW 09
12-01-2014, 10:44 AM
Yes. that's retroactive and backward thinking, believe it or not. Many post-Soviets think this way. The fun is - those Nazi wannabes think exactly the same, they just replaced rusty communist bull$hit with rusty nazi bull$hit or generic parochial bull$hit.

ps. When you citing Colonel Cassad don't hesitate to post relevant pics
https://pp.vk.me/c621718/v621718161/813/-axgZqd0JzM.jpg

and relevant comments

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/476285/476285_1000.png

Ukraine is the last citadel of Europe. Is she a state of scum ruled by Heebs or a nation which managed to keep healthy national and race instincts intact? .. a beacon for the world in the ocean of multirace and multicultural bogey

mirhond---you do realize as a major Russian blogger that this photo has been proven to be photo shopped by a world class photo forensics company--right?

the Nazi flag in the background that you so lovingly point out is in fact added as were two other portions of the original photo.

their research was place online and I am surprised you "missed it".

mirhond at least get your info right.

you really need to expand your vision other than the soviet view

OUTLAW 09
12-01-2014, 10:48 AM
mirhond---ruble to euro at 62 and climbing and the USD is 52 and climbing.

with the de facto devaluing of the ruble your current inflation rate is running about 41% and the sanctions and oil price is not hurting you yet?

come on mirhind get real.

OUTLAW 09
12-01-2014, 11:40 AM
mirhond---ruble to euro at 62 and climbing and the USD is 52 and climbing.

with the de facto devaluing of the ruble your current inflation rate is running about 41% and the sanctions and oil price is not hurting you yet?

come on mirhind get real.


No relief: Ruble takes another step down, to 53.17/$ and 66.28/euro

mirhond now your ruble is following the exact drop rate as the price of oil---not goo--hope you were not planning that French vacation anytime soon?

OUTLAW 09
12-01-2014, 05:54 PM
As far as "MH 17" thread is closed - could anyone explain why Malaysia isn't a part of investigation team, as this article claims, or even is this claim true:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-downing-of-flight-mh-17-why-is-malaysia-not-part-of-the-joint-investigation-team-jit/5415863

mirhond---this should kill your conspiracy thoughts.

Malaysia accepted as full member of #MH17 joint investigation team
http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/12/02/malaysia-accepted-as-full-member-of-mh17-joint-investigation-team/#ixzz3KfZnFVJO …

There never was a veto agreement regardless of what many Russian pundits state--once the aircraft remains were back in Holland they were going to be invited on the rebuilding of the plane debris as representatives of the airline involved.

There was initial distrust of Malaysia for the "alleged" bribes paid by them to the mercenaries to get the black boxes.

Notice not a single comment on this by any of the Russian media and or the Russian FM.

mirhond
12-05-2014, 11:56 PM
Ukrainian ministers of helthcare and finance can't hold their posts legally, because first minister (Georgian) doesn't speak Ukrainian and second one has an American citizenship, while ministers can't have dual citizenship.

http://glavcom.ua/articles/24730.html

Meanwhile, cabinet sessions has to attended in Russian, because it's the only language known to every minister.

OUTLAW 09
12-06-2014, 06:14 AM
Ukrainian ministers of helthcare and finance can't hold their posts legally, because first minister (Georgian) doesn't speak Ukrainian and second one has an American citizenship, while ministers can't have dual citizenship.

http://glavcom.ua/articles/24730.html

Meanwhile, cabinet sessions has to attended in Russian, because it's the only language known to every minister.

so?---see mirhond---some would call it democracy but your FM called it a junta coup---democracy is always messy which if Russia was democratic you would already know

you need to change planets

OUTLAW 09
12-06-2014, 10:30 AM
Does anyone else see the blatant US "doublespeak" in this article---actually she openly states---the Ukraine "had" to give up their nuclear weapons so we the US/Russia could do a nuclear treaty deal.

"It ain't our fault that Russia did not hold to the agreement"--what kind of comment is that? Noticed she failed to indicate just what the US was doing to support their end of ensuring Ukrainian integrity on a "deal" signed by even Clinton.

That explains the current US civilian leadership's approach towards the Ukraine where there have been questions slowly coming out indicating that the US has applied heavy pressure on the Ukraine to "accept" high losses on the Minsk agreements "in order to not agitate Russia" and "why" the US has actually failed to provide much in the way of assistance-or than words--meaning if I do not arm them to defend themselves then they will not "agitate Putin" thus losing another nuclear treaty chance and then I will have to change my use of the word "incursion" to "invasion" and that might force me to do something I do not want to do.

I guess that is the US uses nothing but "words" one might consider that at least "a strategy" towards Russian expansionism.

US rejects criticism of historic Ukraine nuclear deal

AFP

12 hours ago (5 Dec 2014)

Kiev (AFP) - A top US official hit back on Friday against accusations the West has failed to live up to promises made exactly 20 years ago to Ukraine in exchange for it giving up nuclear weapons.

The Budapest Memorandum that came into force on December 5, 1994 led to Ukraine voluntarily giving up the huge stockpile of nuclear warheads it inherited from the Soviet Union.

In exchange, Britain, the United States and Russia agreed to respect Ukraine's borders and ensure its security -- a promise which many Ukrainians see as unkept in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for eastern separatists this year.

But on a visit to Kiev on Friday, Rose Gottemoeller, head of arms control and international security for the US government, said her country "has gone every step towards continuing to defend and develop a means of bolstering Ukraine".

Gottemoeller, who was a negotiator at the Budapest talks 20 years ago, sidestepped questions from reporters on whether Ukraine would have been spared a Russian invasion if it still had nuclear weapons.

"We regret of course that Russia has not lived up to its commitments," she said.

But she added that the failure to rid Ukraine of atomic bombs "would have contributed to a very unstable 20 years not only in Ukraine's history but also in the history of the entire world because it would have placed a barrier in the way of further nuclear disarmament elsewhere."

She also emphasised that steps to reduce nuclear stockpiles in Russia and the United States had not been affected by the crisis over Ukraine, which has plunged East-West relations to levels not seen since the Cold War.

The two countries have continued to implement a so-called New START agreement signed in 2011 under which they have to limit their number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550.

mirhond
12-23-2014, 05:58 PM
http://espreso.tv/news/2014/12/19/u_quotkyyivpastransiquot_zayavlyayut__scho_strayk_ transportnykiv_orhanizuvaly_dyversanty

FSB is literally under every rock in Ukraine!
Saboteurs riled up Kiev public transport emploees to strike, says Sergiy Maizel, head of municipal transport enterprise.


"Виявлено було людей диверсантів, які працювали під підприємством.

Looks like bus drivers just wanted to get their salary.

OUTLAW 09
12-23-2014, 07:06 PM
http://espreso.tv/news/2014/12/19/u_quotkyyivpastransiquot_zayavlyayut__scho_strayk_ transportnykiv_orhanizuvaly_dyversanty

FSB is literally under every rock in Ukraine!
Saboteurs riled up Kiev public transport emploees to strike, says Sergiy Maizel, head of municipal transport enterprise.



Looks like bus drivers just wanted to get their salary.

mirhond --how are the food prices---what at now 12-15% increases?

Medvedev warns of a 'deep recession' in #Russia next year. Economist: "Recession in 2015 is unavoidable."

http://mashable.com/2014/12/23/russia-deep-recession-2015/#:eyJzIjoidCIsImkiOiJfajN5c3QwajMxdTdiZ2Z5eSJ9 …

S&P wants to cut the Russian rating to "junk" bond status.

care to comment on this?

Hilarious conspiracy theories of Western plots against #Russia - I feel for poor @RT_com hacks who must report these

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-02-231214.html …

mirhond
01-01-2015, 05:25 PM
Special video for outlaw, from Ukrainian detective series, courteously translated by me :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiTb1oSEsHQ&feature=share

Whacko patient studies a map of Crimea, murmurs: “What a fortunate turn of events”
Three visitors enter.
P: Guests? Wonderful! Are you interested in my political movement?
Guy#1: Hello, Miroslav Jakovlevich! We urge to get acquainted with you.
P: “No, lets waste no time, we’ll get acquainted later, have a seat, please. I know how to destroy Russia. Listen carefully. In order to do this, Sevastopol must be handed to them, Immediately”
Guy#2: “Like, to make them choke with it?”
P: “No, this is trivial, there is more subtle way”
Guy#1: “Miroslav Jakovlevich, we have business with you..”
P: “Our business is mutual, young gentlemen. Do you know that in the city of Russian glory entire sewage system had erupted for forty times? ”
Guy#1: “Twenty seven”
P: “Ah, you know”
Guy#1: “Entire country knows”
P: “Country.. nobody knows this in Moscow. Why so? Because there are only bandits there, they don’t care, they wanted it – and they’ll get it”
Guy#2: “I disagree”
Guy#1: “You argue to whom?”
Guy#2: “Oh.. yes”
P: “We have to do a small sacrifice to in order get more. We give them Luganskaia oblast’ with two millions of communists. Imagine this: two millions of communists and a city with destroyed sewage system – that would be a disaster..”
Guy#1: “Brilliant!”


bonus video: Hard evidence of Russian invasion, in Ukrainian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yrEYPVUumA

mirhond
01-09-2015, 05:19 PM
New historical discoveries from Yatsenuk, German TV First Channel, I suppose:

http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine-jazenjuk-101.html

1::18 Soviet Union invaded Ukraine and Germany :rolleyes:

Damn if I know German, but this phrase is clear even to me. I'd be grateful if someone who actually knows German would translate it.

OUTLAW 09
01-09-2015, 08:14 PM
Special video for outlaw, from Ukrainian detective series, courteously translated by me :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiTb1oSEsHQ&feature=share

Whacko patient studies a map of Crimea, murmurs: “What a fortunate turn of events”
Three visitors enter.
P: Guests? Wonderful! Are you interested in my political movement?
Guy#1: Hello, Miroslav Jakovlevich! We urge to get acquainted with you.
P: “No, lets waste no time, we’ll get acquainted later, have a seat, please. I know how to destroy Russia. Listen carefully. In order to do this, Sevastopol must be handed to them, Immediately”
Guy#2: “Like, to make them choke with it?”
P: “No, this is trivial, there is more subtle way”
Guy#1: “Miroslav Jakovlevich, we have business with you..”
P: “Our business is mutual, young gentlemen. Do you know that in the city of Russian glory entire sewage system had erupted for forty times? ”
Guy#1: “Twenty seven”
P: “Ah, you know”
Guy#1: “Entire country knows”
P: “Country.. nobody knows this in Moscow. Why so? Because there are only bandits there, they don’t care, they wanted it – and they’ll get it”
Guy#2: “I disagree”
Guy#1: “You argue to whom?”
Guy#2: “Oh.. yes”
P: “We have to do a small sacrifice to in order get more. We give them Luganskaia oblast’ with two millions of communists. Imagine this: two millions of communists and a city with destroyed sewage system – that would be a disaster..”
Guy#1: “Brilliant!”


bonus video: Hard evidence of Russian invasion, in Ukrainian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yrEYPVUumA

mirhond---care to answer this video of "Russian foreign fighters". should not have a problem as it is in your language.

Chechens,Armenians,Dagestanis,Gypsies,Ossetians & Abkhazians which defend "Russian world"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ui0wNlYsZo …

easier one to translate mirhond

Here is a #Russian #soldier captured fighting in #Ukraine. And they claim they are fighting #Fascism!
pic.twitter.com/5JMvTsf9s2

German journalists @correctiv_org prove what #Ukraine supporters knew since summer: #MH17 was shot down by #Russia
https://mh17.correctiv.org/english/

Firn
01-18-2015, 07:52 PM
Beside the price pay in blood for the Russian invasion it also had a big impact on the Ukrainian economy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-30/ukraine-economy-set-to-drop-7-5-in-full-blown-financial-crisis.html):


Ukraine’s economy probably shrank 7.5 percent this year, after the conflict with eastern separatists and Russia’s takeover of Crimea helped trigger a “full-scale” financial crisis, central bank Governor Valeriya Gontareva said.

The Ukrainian banking system is “non-functioning,” and the rate of the hryvnia, which has fallen 48 percent against the dollar this year to become the world’s worst-performing currency, reflects its true value, Gontareva said today at a central bank briefing in Kiev. When asked whether Ukraine would default on its debt, she said: “I don’t think Ukraine needs to be a pariah country.”

As stated before by myself and others considerable European and American financial support is arguably the most important help for the Ukrainian state and it's population.

Ender
01-25-2015, 12:42 AM
I am curious, will everyone who has something positive to say about be Russia be drowned out as well? As another poster noted somewhere else, if they (whomever) are going to talk to you in English, why not listen?

OUTLAW 09
01-25-2015, 07:50 AM
I am curious, will everyone who has something positive to say about be Russia be drowned out as well? As another poster noted somewhere else, if they (whomever) are going to talk to you in English, why not listen?

This is an interesting comment for a number of reasons but will focus on one response.

Just exactly what is currently "good and or positive" coming out of either mother Russia itself and or the Putin led inner circle?

I would though actually state there have been three "liberal" Russia elites saying totally negative things right now and from inside their country--but since 200% of the Russian media is under state security control due to all the law changes instituted by Putin just alone in 2014 to avoid another Maidan in Moscow--so where are we to get a half way "honest Russian" voice?

As one who battles Russian paid trolls most of each day--right now there is no "neutral" Russia voices coming out of Moscow. Until the Russians themselves as a population back away from their "Holy War" there will be no "neutral voices coming from inside Russia unless you count our favorite mirhond?

Great example for you--after the BM21/27 shelling yesterday of Mariupol by Russian paid mercenaries killing 30 and wounding over 100 and being even voice intercepted that is posted on the other Russian thread--- Russia "took down their Russian Facebook VK completely" off the internet in order to control any possible comments coming from Russians--so again where is the "neutral" voice to respond to?

Because I have a ton of direct questions for that voice but if asked-- Russians would be unwilling to answer them.

Second example --this then sounds like a typical Russian "neutral voice"?---reference "Holy War".

Actual headline: "Russia could be one of world's last civilizations - Church official"
http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=11784 …
They misspelled "lost".

Ender
01-25-2015, 06:50 PM
I will take that as a yes.

Ender
01-25-2015, 07:19 PM
As one who battles Russian paid trolls most of each day...

"Battles." Yes, I have been reading a lot of what you post here and, politely, I think you flatter yourself. You post, often, and it's clear you are passionate about "mother Russia." Having said that, in my opinion, you confuse quantity with quality.


It took me some time to realize the true value of Small Wars Council. Considering you are no stranger to unsolicited advice, I pass it along here: You have far more to learn than you have to teach.

OUTLAW 09
01-25-2015, 07:49 PM
"Battles." Yes, I have been reading a lot of what you post here and, politely, I think you flatter yourself. You post, often, and it's clear you are passionate about "mother Russia." Having said that, in my opinion, you confuse quantity with quality.


It took me some time to realize the true value of Small Wars Council. Considering you are no stranger to unsolicited advice, I pass it along here: You have far more to learn than you have to teach.

Ah love the comments about having to learn-two things you need to understand and it might sound strange but I tend to get a lot of mail via other channels that indicate much of what I post here is not in the western media and or it shows up in "some" western media 3-6 days after it happens in the Ukraine for example and if it does then it is buried in page 21.

AND they use these Ukrainian threads to stay informed--check for example the number of Views on the two Ukrainian military threads--let's see right now they are at about say roughly 189,000 views since both threads started and on this one check the Views as well as the Russian Economy Views (at 30,000 plus) and Info war Views (13,000 or so) plus this thread which I do not tend to post much to as virtually everything in the Ukraine is now military in nature.

So in effect the Views seems to out way your comments do you not think?--- give it some thought---189K individuals took a single or maybe multiple views--not bad right as that means they can form their own opinions good or bad.

I find for example that information taken from a wide variety of social media theses days is extremely useful in forming one's opinion and views something you seem to have ignored and if I relied on western media to form my opinion on the Russo Ukraine War I would find myself in a very dark closest in total silence would you not say?

Why useful--there are some major journalists and former EU FMs, some great European political science types or some really great open source analysts that often work the social media side that never really work the main western media that provide multiple views on one topic than does the entire mainstream media these days--but you know that already.

Here is an example---not sure you have seen in a majority of the western media the execution by Russian troops and or mercenaries of captured Ukrainian POWs .

Now find me the list of western media that carried this story or let's sit back and count the days before it shows up first on Yahoo News and then let's see who else mentions it.

Once you have worked your way through the POW execution links--now tell me there is nothing there to learn from.

Zakharchenko: "We'll take no prisoners"
#Russia|n troops executed 11 POWs in Krasnyi Partyzan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6of0JZ4_PbA&sns … pic.twitter.com/IKTeIUVsfz

Moments before these captured Ukrainian troops where murdered by the Putin's Russian forces. pic.twitter.com/XdBqdHTDzQ

Europe is heading for a Balkans-type War. In Ukraine. On your watch. Time to get tough on Russia.
pic.twitter.com/Va9brYpSmZ

BY the way you seem to have missed the comment on the Russian "Holy War"---who else fights a "Holy War" these days?

Interesting is it not to see the interconnection between the two "Holy Wars" but hey based on your comments I need to learn right?

OUTLAW 09
01-25-2015, 08:14 PM
"Battles." Yes, I have been reading a lot of what you post here and, politely, I think you flatter yourself. You post, often, and it's clear you are passionate about "mother Russia." Having said that, in my opinion, you confuse quantity with quality.


It took me some time to realize the true value of Small Wars Council. Considering you are no stranger to unsolicited advice, I pass it along here: You have far more to learn than you have to teach.

Quantity vs quality is an interesting comment---I find that much of what I post and if you plotted it on a large operations map you would be in the middle of an interesting war with multiple views some the fog of war but a majority correct taken from a social stream that double checks a lot of their info which I find that media outlets ie NTYs and BBS have just passed on unchecked Russian propaganda fake stories until called out by social media.

Have you seen them called out on it by "informed individuals in the US"--not really.

Some of the information comes straight from the social media phones of Ukrainian army fighters in the middle of a fight or from the rocket attack in Mariupol which by the way I was posting here long long before the Stateside media even picked it up--or did you not notice.

If you went into the military thread you would have seen postings on the Dontesk airport battles long long before it hit the FP this week--ever wonder why there is a sheer lack of information on the Ukraine in the US?--now that is an interesting topic. By the way the fog of war was deep on those battles from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides.

If you are so concerned by quantity vs quality then you should have addressed it when Iraq was rolling-- 90% trash and 3% quality and 7% was white chatter.

By the way you did notice that social media is effectively pushing back on the major Russian disinformation campaign that has rolled over the US/EU and right now the Russian trolls have been pushed back massively by social media and Russia is being forced to address the social media in a major way that they under estimated would occur.

Or is the disconnecting of their Facebook VK from the internet this weekend over the Mariupol shellings a sign of strength or weakness. Did you think Russian was worried about what western media might find or where they worried about what the social media would find?

You did also notice that social media open source analysis was recently used by the US UNSC Ambassador to prove her point---again quantity vs quality right?

You did notice mirhond has not been around for awhile right.

You did notice this following comment has not been mentioned anywhere in US media. Again: Quantity vs quality??

Confirmed: #Russia|n armed forces 64th Motorized Infantry Brigade h51460 #Khabarovsk, id'd in central #Donetsk Jan 22
pic.twitter.com/H1Y39UU87a

Ender
01-25-2015, 09:09 PM
Link removed by Moderator and PM to author

OUTLAW 09
01-25-2015, 09:31 PM
http://bit.ly/1uNnBXB

Quantity vs quality again the question right? In what media in the US is again the question.

Intelligence: In #Stakhanov RU troops concentrated up to 4 tank battalions & mixed artillery regiment to. Trying to cut #Debaltseve ?

Report: Large Russian army striking group is now forming in #Stakhanov
pic.twitter.com/2zBX1ox0HS
http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/25-jan

Ender
01-25-2015, 09:42 PM
If traffic is your metric, you are doing this for the wrong reason. I don't care that you post, or post often. It's that you mistake being an industrious Google flogger for being a serious analyst. It's that when someone else, an absolute stranger, says something (you think) you disagree with, you presume to lecture the person as though you actually do know what you are talking about rather than just parroting the last thing you heard or read. You don't just post and let people make up their own minds. You post, with commentary. There is a difference.

In short, in my opinion, you treat SWC like a cheap internet blog site and I, and others, want it to be more.

I was hoping to find informed discussion on all of this, instead all I see is you crapping all over every single page that has anything even remotely to do with any of it. Would that your contributions were as well-researched as you presume too... Rare and unique sources do not qualify for credible sources. Even still, you would be safe posting them as long as you didn't take them at face value.

The fact that you reflexively post so much here without any real consideration for extending the conversation makes me wonder who YOU are working for, Outlaw.

OUTLAW 09
01-25-2015, 10:16 PM
If traffic is your metric, you are doing this for the wrong reason. I don't care that you post, or post often. It's that you mistake being an industrious Google flogger for being a serious analyst. It's that when someone else, an absolute stranger, says something (you think) you disagree with, you presume to lecture the person as though you actually do know what you are talking about rather than just parroting the last thing you heard or read. You don't just post and let people make up their own minds. You post, with commentary. There is a difference.

By the way is that any different than say Wapo or NYts or any journalist these days or yourself?

In short, in my opinion, you treat SWC like a cheap internet blog site and the educational level of whatever thread you are in is diminished for it.

I was hoping to find informed discussion on all of this, instead all I see is you crapping all over every single page that has anything even remotely to do with any of it. Would that your contributions were as well-informed as you presume too... Rare and unique sources do not qualify for credible sources. Even still, you would be safe posting them as long as you don't take them at face value.

The fact that you reflexively post so much here without any real consideration for extending the conversation makes me wonder who YOU are working for, Outlaw.

Wow---interesting still no direct answer to the question thrown out there for you to answer "Russian Holy War" yes or no and is it connected to the Salafist jihadis who also wage a "Holy War"? You wanted to learn and yet did not answer--strange is it not as that question alone could earn you a doctorial thesis.

By the way you do know the question was raised here on another thread and little comment came in--"is there a connection between Russia and IS" via Chechnya?

Still no answer to it after two attempts to get you to respond-.

You throw out quantity vs quality as a critique--here is another one;

Fact or Fiction or as you state Quantity vs quality for you to learn something since you want discourse to learn from--

Did he (Girkin/Strelkov---both by the way the same individual if you have not been following him via my postings) or did he not operate in the take over of the DNR/Crimea personally for Putin---let's start a non military discussion just on that single topic---but again you are little informed as you have shown up late to the party it seems.

To start this discourse I will respond to your answers and see if you can learn something.

If you do not know the individual there has been plenty posted on the thread by myself and kaur if you read his comments as well over his actions and what his recent Russian TV interviews have indicated ---that is if you accept Russian TV as the "truth" ---but in this case IMHO he is in fact stating the truth and somehow has escaped being killed as an number of his fellow followers who were with him have suddenly "died recently" after returning from Donetsk.

Awaiting your responses to Girkin to kick off this learning session.

But again you critique the postings as quantity vs quality so I am not sure you want to go back and research for the specific postings on Girkin.

Ender
01-25-2015, 10:29 PM
Thank you for editing that last post (again and again and again). I have read this thread thoroughly and understand you had issues with another member who is no longer with us. Respectfully, I am not him and I would seriously appreciate it if you would refrain from bringing your last "battle" with him here into the discussion.

The truth is, I am not going to answer your questions and I don't want to have a discussion with you about why I will, or won't. Just because we post here, Outlaw, doesn't mean we are entitled to be taken seriously.

This will be my last comment to you here; I sincerely hope you find a way to provide space for other members to express themselves without being berated by the last gem you found on the web. Cheers.

davidbfpo
01-25-2015, 11:42 PM
SWC is here for the voluntary exchange of information and debate. Sometimes posts appear that are controversial for some, many and even none at times. Debate can happen, it does not always happen.

To my knowledge some topics attract more attention, even posts and controversy. Syria for three years has been one, for example over to intervene or not.

There are RoE and rarely do the moderators have to act. They are as a reminder:
No discussions of current ops that may disadvantage lawful combatants. Be polite.
It is OK to be angry, just not all the time.
Respect copyrights and fair use.
Abide by the terms of the User Agreement you accepted when you registered.
Enjoy.


This evening's exchange of views are not unexpected. Both authors have clearly made their position clear.

Now I ask, no require as a moderator, that all abide by our RoE

OUTLAW 09
01-26-2015, 01:22 AM
Thank you for editing that last post (again and again and again). I have read this thread thoroughly and understand you had issues with another member who is no longer with us. Respectfully, I am not him and I would seriously appreciate it if you would refrain from bringing your last "battle" with him here into the discussion.

The truth is, I am not going to answer your questions and I don't want to have a discussion with you about why I will, or won't. Just because we post here, Outlaw, doesn't mean we are entitled to be taken seriously.

This will be my last comment to you here; I sincerely hope you find a way to provide space for other members to express themselves without being berated by the last gem you found on the web. Cheers.

Here is what you fully missed---all the posts are in fact "open source"--the value of open source to the end user ie yourself is the ability to take open source and use it to do three things for you

1. confirm your biases
2. deny your biases and
3. to tip you to look in a new direction

Whether you accept the concept that open source now formally titled OSINT does in fact provide 80% of all intelligence and is used to confirm, deny and tip is your choice--but in fact the 80% is correct.

All the postings if you had really checked them provide either links, photos and or supporting videos and a lot of the photos and videos have in fact been geo tagged --and have even been used at the UNSC by the US.

Whether you like or dislike the posting is open to your own biases but a gentle reminder what you have seen over the last four weeks is eye opening and should be challenging your every biase especially in the face of the fact your rarely see it in western media and if you do it is usually 3-6 days old.

Shame you did not take up the two questions as they are key to what is going on in both the Ukraine and with IS and oh yes open source has proven a number of things lately down to showing the West a massive amount of new Russia weapons systems that we simply did not realize.

See again with your last comment---on every single posting you could have in fact entered into a discussion around that posting---missed opportunity in the world of open source.

The events are occurring so fast that in the discussion chain more open source could have flowed into the discussion around the deny or confirm method expanding some of the events into major conversations=missed opportunity.

Ender
01-26-2015, 08:41 AM
I said I wouldn't respond. I lied.

Out of curiosity, who do you presume you are preaching to here? :) Who exactly do you think you are educating with these Disneyland, crayon, and cartoon versions of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and everything in between? You do get that most of us are Americans, right? Of age to remember the USSR? You don't have to beat us over the head with your little plastic bat to get us to pay attention to Russia. Yes, child, they are playing for keeps. We get it. Things are seriously getting crazy in Ukraine right now. We. get. that. too.

As a favor, could you bring it down a notch or two so the adults can talk? You are (largely) preaching to the choir here at SWC and the Wide-Eye, Mouth-Breathing, Chicken Little routine is not making a bad situation any better, thank you.

In reference to open-source material, I confess it reads like you just discovered that statistic last year. Yes, Outlaw, everyone knows the bulk of all "intel" is laying out in the open. Gold star, well done. One more correct answer and you get a Spy Kid Merit Badge to match. To clarify, what you are doing isn't (IS NOT) "intelligence" or even "intelligence gathering." It's "information sharing" (at BEST), and Polish/Ukrainian/Lithuanian/Russian/WhoKnows? agenda-pushing/disinformation-spreading at worst. It's not that you don't know what you know, rather it's that what you know is rather limited, extremely biased, and how you deliver that limited information, in print, reads rather thick and simple.

To be clear, it's not that you post material here. It's that you have a very limited idea about the subjects you post on and publicly trumpet that fact, often. It it were just the links and a description there would be no more migraines. But, no. You have to soap box on every single post. Every one. A little over 7 posts a day. For over a year. It's painful.

Ender
01-26-2015, 09:08 AM
So we are clear: I do not want to learn anything from you because I am convinced you have nothing to teach me. Trust me, after having spent the better part of too many hours reading your posts here, I am absolutely qualified to make this assessment.

That is why I will not answer your (overly simplistic) questions. You have, in no way, shown yourself to be anything other than a rabid ideologue. A blogger. A shameless reposter of other people's material. Respectfully, not once have I ever gotten the sense that you are educated, trained, or objectively informed about the matters you talk so passionately about.

In fact, your Russophobia is laid on so thick, and your "lessons" are so uni-dimensional, so monochromatic, it really makes one wonder: who butters your bread, Outlaw?

OUTLAW 09
01-26-2015, 10:17 AM
So we are clear: I do not want to learn anything from you because I am convinced you have nothing to teach me. Trust me, after having spent the better part of too many hours reading your posts here, I am absolutely qualified to make this assessment.

That is why I will not answer your (overly simplistic) questions. You have, in no way, shown yourself to be anything other than a rabid ideologue. A blogger. A shameless reposter of other people's material. Respectfully, not once have I ever gotten the sense that you are educated, trained, or objectively informed about the matters you talk so passionately about.

In fact, your Russophobia is laid on so thick, and your "lessons" are so uni-dimensional, so monochromatic, it really makes one wonder: who butters your bread, Outlaw?

Everyone notices you still do not answer to the very direct two questions --you stated you want a discussion but strangely you back away from a discussion when two very simple formulated questions are posted back to you---wonder why?

Again for a third question --just what is and or has come out of Putin, his FM and anyone in the Moscow elites in the last eight months that is really worth discussing here---awaiting a good example.

Will give you some choices to pick from that is now treading.

Lavrov: Russia helps Ukraine by sending aid [sic!], accepting refugees, lowering rates on coal, electricity, not demanding debt repayment.

Notice by the way he did not state Russia is actively supporting and implementing Minsk 1--now that would be a solid discussion proposal--is Russia in fact just using Minsk 1 to send in more troops and heavy weapons and yet argue is all the Ukrainians fault?

OR we could discuss the theft of Ukrainian coal by Russia and verified by the OSCE and then selling it back to the Ukraine--now that is an interesting topic as well.

So now Rogozin is admitting that US missile-defense plans are no threat to Russia? Am I missing something?
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/773284

I am confused here--has not Putin and his FM often stated since August 2014 that the US missile shield is a direct threat to Russia--this would led to the question--- what is real and not real in the current Russian disinformation/information war campaign? We coud even use the various Russian media statements that both have used stating the US missile threat if you like.

#Lavrov- Tragedy in #Mariupol,#Donetsk,#Volnovakha due to #Ukraine not accepting #Putin offer http://bit.ly/1ELrIDQ
pic.twitter.com/oQCtuHw4If

Even more confused by the FM's comments ---has not open source analysis 200% proven and yes it was used recently in the UNSC that Russian troops and or their supported, supplied and funded mercenaries shelled the buses at Volnovakha, Donetsk and shelled the civilian residential areas of Mariupol? Or did I miss the SBU voice intercept of the Russian mercenary GRAD batteries that fired into the city but wait it was also posted here as well---that makes it then simple to pull up and discuss.

But again wait--was not Putin's Berlin proposal of pulling back heavy artillery 15kms just a rehash of what was already in the Minsk Agreement "signed" by Russia in Sept 2014, BUT wait did not Russia recall it's signature from the November 2014 ceasefire Minsk document?--so maybe you could assist in sorting out exactly what Putin's position is that the FM is referring to?

That would be a great discussion topic that might not get into anti Russian comments.

We could start a discussion thread just on those shellings if you would like---BUT wait were the various open source analysis products already posted here at SWJ? And we could get the comments of the US UNSC Ambassador who quoted the analysis if you like as well.

Or we could include as a discussion the Russian mercenary executions of Ukrainian POWs-but wait that was also already posted as well.

So back to the original thread---just pick a discussion topic and let's see where it takes us-but again you never answer anything anyway.

So in the end it is all words and nothing more.

Forgot you mentioned "buttered bread"---that minds me I have a business brunch this after noon so make a decision on your "favorite topic" from above, provide some thought provoking statements and I will respond in a "not to overbearing anti Russian fashion" and let's see if you can discuss.

OUTLAW 09
01-26-2015, 11:08 AM
Everyone notices you still do not answer to the very direct two questions --you stated you want a discussion but strangely you back away from a discussion when two very simple formulated questions are posted back to you---wonder why?

Again for a third question --just what is and or has come out of Putin, his FM and anyone in the Moscow elites in the last eight months that is really worth discussing here---awaiting a good example.

Will give you some choices to pick from that is now treading.

Lavrov: Russia helps Ukraine by sending aid [sic!], accepting refugees, lowering rates on coal, electricity, not demanding debt repayment.

Notice by the way he did not state Russia is actively supporting and implementing Minsk 1--now that would be a solid discussion proposal--is Russia in fact just using Minsk 1 to send in more troops and heavy weapons and yet argue is all the Ukrainians fault?

OR we could discuss the theft of Ukrainian coal by Russia and verified by the OSCE and then selling it back to the Ukraine--now that is an interesting topic as well.

So now Rogozin is admitting that US missile-defense plans are no threat to Russia? Am I missing something?
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/773284

I am confused here--has not Putin and his FM often stated since August 2014 that the US missile shield is a direct threat to Russia--this would led to the question--- what is real and not real in the current Russian disinformation/information war campaign? We coud even use the various Russian media statements that both have used stating the US missile threat if you like.

#Lavrov- Tragedy in #Mariupol,#Donetsk,#Volnovakha due to #Ukraine not accepting #Putin offer http://bit.ly/1ELrIDQ
pic.twitter.com/oQCtuHw4If

Even more confused by the FM's comments ---has not open source analysis 200% proven and yes it was used recently in the UNSC that Russian troops and or their supported, supplied and funded mercenaries shelled the buses at Volnovakha, Donetsk and shelled the civilian residential areas of Mariupol? Or did I miss the SBU voice intercept of the Russian mercenary GRAD batteries that fired into the city but wait it was also posted here as well---that makes it then simple to pull up and discuss.

But again wait--was not Putin's Berlin proposal of pulling back heavy artillery 15kms just a rehash of what was already in the Minsk Agreement "signed" by Russia in Sept 2014, BUT wait did not Russia recall it's signature from the November 2014 ceasefire Minsk document?--so maybe you could assist in sorting out exactly what Putin's position is that the FM is referring to?

That would be a great discussion topic that might not get into anti Russian comments.

We could start a discussion thread just on those shellings if you would like---BUT wait were the various open source analysis products already posted here at SWJ? And we could get the comments of the US UNSC Ambassador who quoted the analysis if you like as well.

Or we could include as a discussion the Russian mercenary executions of Ukrainian POWs-but wait that was also already posted as well.

So back to the original thread---just pick a discussion topic and let's see where it takes us-but again you never answer anything anyway.

So in the end it is all words and nothing more.

Forgot you mentioned "buttered bread"---that minds me I have a business brunch this after noon so make a decision on your "favorite topic" from above, provide some thought provoking statements and I will respond in a "not to overbearing anti Russian fashion" and let's see if you can discuss.

Or we could take this treading direction as a basis of discussion--something like "how is Russian media being used in the Russian UW strategy of disinformation warfare for both Russians inside Russian and for foreign audiences".

THE RUSSIANS EXECUTED 4 UKRAINIAN POWS AND FILMED IT AFTERWARDS WHILE 2 WERE STILL ALIVE
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/graphic-warcrimes-russians-shoot.html …
pic.twitter.com/iVeIK79z81

Most horrendous video 'Russian press' has produced so far. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-gJ46pVLMo … It'll make you sick. Do NOT watch.
pic.twitter.com/bP9cp31whC

OUTLAW 09
01-26-2015, 01:37 PM
Attempting to not be "anti-Russian" but here are statements from the Russian FM and small comments indicating the falsehoods.

Prefect example of the Russian “altered state of reality” meaning if I recall the Russian FMs own statement just after he learned that Russian troops had shelled Mariupol killing 30 and wounding over 100 “we will do any solution that it takes to stop the conflict” Quote/Unquote:

See anything that reflects that statement and his previous statement “the DNR through our influence will pull back to the Minsk demarcation lines”---see anything along those lines appearing lately? Right after
His statement the DNR “declared war” and stated they will take the entire Donbas.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We hope that our Western partners and the US refrain from any moves that could make Kiev think the West supports all of its actions

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Confident that the peace process must be revived, we focus on steps to promote dialogue between Kiev and the self-defence fighters

NOTE: Notice how now the Russian “separatists” are now “self defense fighters---whatever the heck that is defined as---Russian troops executing POWs and shelling civilians I guess does make them “self defense fighters” which is though a big stretch in the English language.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: As far as I know, contacts between them are expected to take place in the days to come. We seek to facilitate them

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: They announced that their actions are aimed at destroying positions Ukrainian forces use to fire at residential areas

NOTE: FM still does not recognize the fact that open source analysis has fully proven Russian troops and their mercenaries shelled two buses and civilians in Mariupol. This is called the Russian MH17 shuffle.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: It would be naïve to expect the militia to do nothing while their communities are shelled at the orders of the Ukrainian president

NOTICE just how the Russian FM sidesteps the Russian supported shellings of two buses and civilians in Mariupol and NOTICE how he avoids the two statements by the DNR mercenary leader that he is in an offensive and that he declared “war” on the Ukraine? NOTICE how he provides absolutely no evidence of the Presidential "order".

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: In this situation, it would be naïve to expect any appeasing rhetoric from the other side #Ukraine

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Unfortunately, Kiev put the Berlin arrangement into question the very next day #Ukraine

NOTE: another FM falsehood as their proposal to pull back 15kms was firmly anchored already in the Minsk Agreement PLUS the Ukrainians stated we will pull back when we see no shellings from the mercenaries and Russian troops as they had been in a previous unilateral ceasefire from Nov 2014 which initially had even a Russian signature that they then “recalled” whatever that means to them.

AND during that unilateral ceasefire they were fired on over 600 times.

OUTLAW 09
01-26-2015, 01:54 PM
Attempting to not be "anti-Russian" but here are statements from the Russian FM and small comments indicating the falsehoods.

Prefect example of the Russian “altered state of reality” meaning if I recall the Russian FMs own statement just after he learned that Russian troops had shelled Mariupol killing 30 and wounding over 100 “we will do any solution that it takes to stop the conflict” Quote/Unquote:

See anything that reflects that statement and his previous statement “the DNR through our influence will pull back to the Minsk demarcation lines”---see anything along those lines appearing lately? Right after
His statement the DNR “declared war” and stated they will take the entire Donbas.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We hope that our Western partners and the US refrain from any moves that could make Kiev think the West supports all of its actions

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Confident that the peace process must be revived, we focus on steps to promote dialogue between Kiev and the self-defence fighters

NOTE: Notice how now the Russian “separatists” are now “self defense fighters---whatever the heck that is defined as---Russian troops executing POWs and shelling civilians I guess does make them “self defense fighters” which is though a big stretch in the English language.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: As far as I know, contacts between them are expected to take place in the days to come. We seek to facilitate them

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: They announced that their actions are aimed at destroying positions Ukrainian forces use to fire at residential areas

NOTE: FM still does not recognize the fact that open source analysis has fully proven Russian troops and their mercenaries shelled two buses and civilians in Mariupol. This is called the Russian MH17 shuffle.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: It would be naïve to expect the militia to do nothing while their communities are shelled at the orders of the Ukrainian president

NOTICE just how the Russian FM sidesteps the Russian supported shellings of two buses and civilians in Mariupol and NOTICE how he avoids the two statements by the DNR mercenary leader that he is in an offensive and that he declared “war” on the Ukraine? NOTICE how he provides absolutely no evidence of the Presidential "order".

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: In this situation, it would be naïve to expect any appeasing rhetoric from the other side #Ukraine

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Unfortunately, Kiev put the Berlin arrangement into question the very next day #Ukraine

NOTE: another FM falsehood as their proposal to pull back 15kms was firmly anchored already in the Minsk Agreement PLUS the Ukrainians stated we will pull back when we see no shellings from the mercenaries and Russian troops as they had been in a previous unilateral ceasefire from Nov 2014 which initially had even a Russian signature that they then “recalled” whatever that means to them.

AND during that unilateral ceasefire they were fired on over 600 times.

Self evident--no need for comments:

Russia's rational leader? RT: PUTIN: #Ukraine's army is a legion of #NATO used to deter Russia

http://sputniknews.com
pic.twitter.com/ktYnsAN0z6

Zakharchenko has announced that "DNR" and "LNR" "are working on creating joint front line". @uatodaytv Smoke screen for #Russia'n advance.

Tourist season in Donetsk. Part of the Chechen “Death” battalion, today guarding DNR leader Zakharchenko
pic.twitter.com/RPE926GEvc

Who says politics can't be fashionable?! Chechen fighter in #Donetsk sports Ramzan Kadyrov baseball cap. pic.twitter.com/Q3U4tRYyBG

mirhond
02-06-2015, 01:19 PM
Protests against mobilisation in Ukraine.

Petrostal', Odesskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yal1pvocdWs#t=27

Genichesk, Khersonskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCvrFFiuxgU

Belovodsk, Luganskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_23yyuf6fA

As anyone could see there are no draftable males in the crouds, where are they, what do you think?

ps. bonus vid. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSqUcEn3x4c
Draftable guy explains how he "hide under the bed" when military came after him and why he did so. (His motivation in short: "This war is bull$hit, it serves no national interests, I will not go to kill my brothers and compatriots")

kaur
02-06-2015, 02:51 PM
mirhond, just curious. What do you think when Russia runs out of cossacks, nationalists, brainwashed citizens etc who travel to Donbass to fight against NATO fascist legions?

OUTLAW 09
02-06-2015, 04:29 PM
Protests against mobilisation in Ukraine.

Petrostal', Odesskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yal1pvocdWs#t=27

Genichesk, Khersonskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCvrFFiuxgU

Belovodsk, Luganskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_23yyuf6fA

As anyone could see there are no draftable males in the crouds, where are they, what do you think?

ps. bonus vid. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSqUcEn3x4c
Draftable guy explains how he "hide under the bed" when military came after him and why he did so. (His motivation in short: "This war is bull$hit, it serves no national interests, I will not go to kill my brothers and compatriots")

BLOG: MAJOR RUSSIAN DEFEAT near Debaltseve http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/major-russian-defeat-near-debaltseve.html … pic.twitter.com/XtFyPXyKHj

So far #Ukraine has killed & taken dog tags from #Russia soldiers from 21 of 36 existing Russian Army brigades... pic.twitter.com/qMnuLz8d8g

Mirhond---think you might know this Russian FSB officer from the Crimea and eastern Ukraine

Strelkov: "Over the past 4 months the army of Ukraine has strengthened threefold. They did not give up even after the defeat last summer

Strelkov: "Advance of Novorossiya troops was stopped. We have huge losses. Our fight is hopeless. No troops to encircle Debaltsevo"

Strelkov: "Junta increases flow of weapons, training more troops while militia has no officers. Avdeevka and Pisky are too strengthened

Strelkov: "Novorossiya is great idea, but DPR and LPR are banana republics. Their leaders are junta."

OUTLAW 09
02-06-2015, 04:56 PM
Protests against mobilisation in Ukraine.

Petrostal', Odesskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yal1pvocdWs#t=27

Genichesk, Khersonskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCvrFFiuxgU

Belovodsk, Luganskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_23yyuf6fA

As anyone could see there are no draftable males in the crouds, where are they, what do you think?

ps. bonus vid. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSqUcEn3x4c
Draftable guy explains how he "hide under the bed" when military came after him and why he did so. (His motivation in short: "This war is bull$hit, it serves no national interests, I will not go to kill my brothers and compatriots")

mirhond---looks like girkin was right after all

#Lugansk terrorist confirm huge amount of loss. They claim to have 1000 surgeries in last 5 days! That's 8 per hour! http://youtu.be/twj0IAPTWuE

"Welcome to hell" reads sign on DNR block post entering Horlivka. After months of fierce fighting the city today certainly looks like it.

AND remember the 1994 Budapest Memorandum---check what was to be done with the 203mm Ukrainian Pion?

#Russia'n tank after shelling of "Pion". pic.twitter.com/xxpX1GK474 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-february-russian-tank-after-shelling-of-pion- …

OUTLAW 09
02-06-2015, 05:00 PM
Protests against mobilisation in Ukraine.

Petrostal', Odesskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yal1pvocdWs#t=27

Genichesk, Khersonskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCvrFFiuxgU

Belovodsk, Luganskaya obl. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_23yyuf6fA

As anyone could see there are no draftable males in the crouds, where are they, what do you think?

ps. bonus vid. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSqUcEn3x4c
Draftable guy explains how he "hide under the bed" when military came after him and why he did so. (His motivation in short: "This war is bull$hit, it serves no national interests, I will not go to kill my brothers and compatriots")

AND the sanctions are not hurting Russia?

Russian Ambassador to France "In Order to de-Escalate in Donbas sanctions must be lifted" pic.twitter.com/ly44VY0JLP

OUTLAW 09
02-06-2015, 06:27 PM
mirhond---looks like girkin was right after all

#Lugansk terrorist confirm huge amount of loss. They claim to have 1000 surgeries in last 5 days! That's 8 per hour! http://youtu.be/twj0IAPTWuE

"Welcome to hell" reads sign on DNR block post entering Horlivka. After months of fierce fighting the city today certainly looks like it.

AND remember the 1994 Budapest Memorandum---check what was to be done with the 203mm Ukrainian Pion?

#Russia'n tank after shelling of "Pion". pic.twitter.com/xxpX1GK474 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-february-russian-tank-after-shelling-of-pion- …


Donetsk: it's the place not to be! MT @mashant AFP in Debaltseve today saw 20 buses sent to evacuate people to DNR, 19 of them left empty.

Evacuation to Donetsk. Empty buses. Guess what? Nobody wants to live in Russian world. pic.twitter.com/k9HkUX7TDL

mirhond
02-07-2015, 12:13 AM
mirhond, just curious. What do you think when Russia runs out of cossacks, nationalists, brainwashed citizens etc who travel to Donbass to fight against NATO fascist legions?

Why don't you ask about regular troops, are you perchance a heretic who reject an official credo of Russian invasion? SWJ inquisition has to keep an eye on you ;)
Newertheless, your question makes some sence and I personally believe separatist's cause is already fading in the Russian public eye and they have even more troubles reinforcing, but that is a mere speculation based on media noise and reading some blogs.

OUTLAW 09
02-07-2015, 06:26 AM
Why don't you ask about regular troops, are you perchance a heretic who reject an official credo of Russian invasion? SWJ inquisition has to keep an eye on you ;)
Newertheless, your question makes some sence and I personally believe separatist's cause is already fading in the Russian public eye and they have even more troubles reinforcing, but that is a mere speculation based on media noise and reading some blogs.

one has to love your use of the English language--but anyway to the question of Russian involvement--just a few of the hundreds of reportings that have been verified --can provide another 100 together with photos and videos since August if you want them.

As to media "noise":

So far #Ukraine has killed & taken dog tags from #Russia soldiers from 21 of 36 existing Russian Army brigades... pic.twitter.com/qMnuLz8d8g
BMP-2 in #Vuhlehirsk, Ukraine and before in #Kamensk-Shakhtinsk,

Russia.http://youtu.be/CJm5bjM3Z5c?t=1m30s … pic.twitter.com/hSEPASIcHN
Kamaz 43269 from #Russia|n military Intelligence unit h/66431 spotted in #Debaltseve #Ukraine
http://youtu.be/FPlIzHEnf70?t=6m32s … pic.twitter.com/l7yrq5kn3y

#Russian APC BPM-97 #Vystrel #302 taking part in terrorist attack on #Debaltseve
http://youtu.be/FPlIzHEnf70?t=6m34s … pic.twitter.com/Ojjit6OI7B

Convoy of Russian self-propelled artillery in Donetsk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-febru...ery-in-donetsk … pic.twitter.com/VJmFbdrulC

Tactical signs and H2200 markers of Russian tanks are now sprayed with paint. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPlIzHEnf70 … #Debaltseve pic.twitter.com/PYFmPkxtgJ

#Russia|n Mechanized Infantry fighting around #Debaltseve. Modern Russian vehicles present.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPlI...utu.be&t=6m34s …

Ukraine has been the testbed of the new Russian army. Interesting expert comment from @chathamhouse http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/c...BI3M9E,BCX08,1 …

AND let's not even get into the shelling by Russian troops and or their supported mercenaries of civilians (over 60 killed) which has been verified by open source analysis and the OSCE.

davidbfpo
02-12-2015, 11:19 AM
Whatever happened in the Maidan, Kiev on February 20th 2014 will always be controversial. Who shot down the protestors (who were not pacifists) is one issue, but who started the shooting is now examined by the BBC:
A day of bloodshed on Kiev's main square, nearly a year ago, marked the end of a winter of protest against the government of president Viktor Yanukovych, who soon afterwards fled the country. More than 50 protesters and three policemen died. But how did the shooting begin? Protest organisers have always denied any involvement - but one man told the BBC a different story.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31359021