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davidbfpo
01-01-2015, 05:23 PM
A new thread for Iraq in 2015 and obviously due to the overlap with the Syrian civil war should be read alongside the 2015 Syrian thread.

The title IMHO reflects how complicated the Iraqi civil war / insurgency is, notably the strange alliance supporting the Iraqi state and the semi-independent role of the Kurds.

A separate thread remains on ISIS, where commentaries on the group are best placed:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=21084

JWing
01-05-2015, 03:27 PM
I just interviewed Al Rai's Elijah Magnier about the Moqtada al-Sadr-Qais Khazali split. Unlike conventional wisdom that said the two split in 2006 and Khazali went on to create Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH), Magnier said that AAH was actually a front group created by Sadr and Iran to carry out deniable attacks for the Sadr trend. Sadr and Khazali didn't split until much later thanks to the work of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force commander Gen. Qasim Suleimani. Please read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/inside-moqtada-al-sadr-qais-khazali.html).

Took me a whole week but I finally compiled all of the security statistics for 2014 in Iraq. Counted 10,209 attacks, 24,725 killed, 37,970 wounded. Complete statistics, and charts breaking down those numbers can be found here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/2014-deadliest-year-in-iraq-since-civil_6.html).

Did a year end review of Iraq stories for 2014. Is no way comprehensive list, but some of the major events month by month that I wrote about for my blog Musings On Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/musings-on-iraq-2014-year-in-review.html).

Just published my weekly security report for Jan1-7, 2015 in Iraq. Attacks have been going up over last several weeks, but casualties remained stable. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/insurgents-pick-up-attacks-in-iraq-but.html).

Another Iranian was reported killed in Iraq Jan 10. Was a commander in the Basij militia likely working with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. This is the sixth Iranian that has officially been announced as dying in Iraq since the fall of Mosul in June. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/another-iranian-killed-in-iraq-probably.html).

davidbfpo
01-13-2015, 07:58 PM
Money matters and in this very short CTC piece all is explained, although to date action by the coalition appears to have littel impact - leave it to the market! http://combatingterrorismcenter.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/r/9F2D4980B67C2A412540EF23F30FEDED/DD8E9419B0F0510BF99AA49ED5AF8B9E

JWing
01-14-2015, 03:23 PM
There's been a dramatic drop in car bombs in Iraq since Dec. Went form 59 in Nov to 21 in Dec. Low numbers continued into Jan. Analysis of some reasons why this has occurred here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/why-has-there-been-dramatic-drop-in-car_14.html).

After 13 tries Jurf al-Sakhr in northeastern Babil a long time IS base was finally cleared in Oct. Security in Babil and southern Iraq has dramatically improved since then. There have been no car bombings in the south for example as Jurf was IS's main VBIED base in the south. On the other hand the entire population of the area has been forced out and are in refugee camps as militias and local govt wont allow them back in because theyr'e considered IS supporters. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-clearing-of-iraqs-jurf-al-sakhr.html).

JWing
01-19-2015, 05:53 PM
Just released my weekly security report for Iraq for 2nd week of January 2015. Attacks have gone up in Iraq since December. There was a big jump in casualties as well, but that was because a mass grave was found outside of Mosul with victims of IS. There is a continued stalemate in Anbar, mass graves were found in Diyala, an uptick in insurgent activity in Kirkuk, IS went on the offensive in Ninewa, while the ISF and militias are trying ton consolidate their recent wins in southern Salahaddin. For more read here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/1200-casualties-in-iraq-2nd-week-of.html).

JWing
01-20-2015, 03:19 PM
Wrote an in depth history of the Badr Organization from its origins with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard during the Iran-Iraq War to its attempt to co-opt the 1991 uprising to the 2003 invasion when it attempted to take power in Diyala and Wasit to taking over the Interior Ministry, assassinations of Baathits, its war with the Sadrists up to the current period where it sent fighters to Syria and is now in the forefront of the war against the Iraqi insurgency. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/badr-organization-view-into-iraqs.html).

JWing
01-21-2015, 03:20 PM
Premier Abadi suggested creating a National Guard as a way to protect the provinces and decentralize power when he came into office in Sep. Legislation to create the Guard is deadlocked in parliament, but some provinces are moving ahead with the idea anyway. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/iraqs-national-guard-plan-moving.html).

JWing
01-22-2015, 03:43 PM
When open fighting broke out in Iraq at start of 2014 and militias were deployed many feared that there would be a huge jump in extrajudicial killings with bodies dumped in Baghdad. There was a huge surge in those types of incidents during the summer, but they have since gone down as fears that the capital would be taken receded. Read the whole article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/dead-bodies-dumped-in-iraqs-capital-did.html).

JWing
01-26-2015, 03:29 PM
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq. Attacks are going back up after a dip in the last quarter of 2014. Pro-government forces consolidating recent gains and repelling IS attacks. Looks like Iraq heading towards periods where both insurgents & ISF are going to be offensive at same time. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/iraqs-insurgents-picking-up-attacks-in.html).

JWing
01-28-2015, 03:20 PM
Jan 1-27 24 out of the 36 successful car bombs used in Iraq were for tactical attacks by the Islamic State on pro-government forces. In recent months anywhere from 33-50% or more of VBIEDs are being directed to these types of operations instead of the regular terrorist ones against civilian targets. Analysis of this shift here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/01/islamic-state-shifting-car-bombs-to.html).

AdamG
01-29-2015, 10:00 PM
A video uploaded to YouTube appears to show a large Hezbollah Brigades convoy transporting weapons, troops, and armored vehicles to the front to fight the Islamic State.

Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/01/hezbollah_brigades_c.php#ixzz3QFa5E3rG

JWing
02-02-2015, 03:25 PM
My latest article breaksdown the security situation in Diyala. That was one of the first places the insurgency began rebuilding itself in 2012. That quickly brought in militias, one of the first places they deployed outside of Baghdad in 2013. By 2014 militants were threatening eastern and northern Diyala and then seized dozens of villages in June during the summer offensive. Since then the security forces and militias have launched security operation after operation often in the same areas because it doesn't have the forces to hold any area. In January the govt and militias claimed that the entire province was free, but that was propaganda as insurgents are still strong in eastern Diyala. Province has also seen sectarian killings by militias just like what happened from 2005-2008. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/iraqs-diyala-province-insurgent.html).

JWing
02-03-2015, 03:24 PM
Latest article reviews security in Iraq in Jan 2015. Attacks were going down in the winter and started picking up again at the end of Dec into Jan. IS went on the offensive in Kirkuk and Ninewa in addition to continued operations in Anbar and Salahaddin. Led to a huge jump in attacks and casualties during the month. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/violence-up-in-iraq-in-january-2015-as.html).

JWing
02-04-2015, 03:30 PM
New article breaking down extrajudicial killings in Baghdad in January. During summer these incidents spiked but have since stabilized. Analysis here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/extrajudicial-killings-in-iraqs-capital.html).

JWing
02-05-2015, 03:23 PM
The National Guard bill finally got out of Iraq's cabinet. Was wide disagreement between different parties on bill. Major change was that Guard will no longer be controlled by governors, but prime minister as commander and chief. Bill now goes to parliament where there are probably even more divisions and no telling whether legislation will be passed or not. Biggest fear amongst Shiite and Kurdish parties is that Guard will be taken over by hostile Sunnis. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/iraq-national-guard-bill-finally-out-of.html).

OUTLAW 09
02-07-2015, 10:23 AM
This is the indicator we needed to see ---if this is true when how deep does it go and strength of the Naqshibandiyah? AND will the Sunni tribes now get involved if armed by the US?

Reports that clashes erupted between the #IS and fighters of Tareq al Naqshibandiyah in Huwaija. #Iraq pic.twitter.com/0G6KjBO0pP

davidbfpo
02-09-2015, 11:36 AM
From:http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iraq-situation-report-february-7-8-2015

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9XlI51CcAERdd8.png

JWing
02-09-2015, 03:25 PM
Iraqi official continue to under report casualties. Since the summer offensive both Baghdad and Irbil have only given partial numbers for members of the security forces lost in the fighting. Recently the Peshmerga Ministry released some numbers but they are below figures reported in the press. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/iraqi-officials-continue-to-under.html).

OUTLAW 09
02-09-2015, 07:43 PM
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Uh huh. Iraqi commander denies paramilitary groups involved in killings http://ara.tv/w2e9w via @AlArabiya_Eng

Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
There is more to come on the US' blind eye to Special Groups in Iraq...

JWing
02-10-2015, 03:21 PM
Just released new security report for 1st wk of Feb. After attacks were going up from Dec to Jan they saw a drop in Feb. Were now big offensive moves by IS during the week. Read all the details and see charts on violence in Iraq here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/violence-down-in-iraq-1st-week-of.html).

JWing
02-11-2015, 03:25 PM
Iranian Revolutionary Guard suffered its 7th acknowledged loss in Iraq in Feb. A general who was an intelligence chief was killed fighting IS. Read the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/another-iranian-revolutionary-guard.html).

JWing
02-12-2015, 03:26 PM
Baghdad has returned as the main target of attacks in Iraq after the summer offensive put pressure on Anbar Salahaddin and Ninewa. Attacks have changed in the capital however from waves of car bombs to now more IEDs. Those are less deadlier leading to a paradox an increase in attacks in Baghdad the last three months but declining casualties. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-new-security-threat-to-iraqs.html).

OUTLAW 09
02-13-2015, 03:27 PM
"The US air campaign against the #IS has allowed #Assad to direct more of his military fire on Western-backed rebels" http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/12/in-syria-the-enemy-of-an-enemy-is-still-an-enemy/ …

OUTLAW 09
02-15-2015, 04:44 PM
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
This will go down well with the Kurds. Hadi Amiri: Shia militias to be deployed to Kirkuk http://waarmedia.com/english/hadi-amiri-shia-militias-to-be-deployed-to-kirkuk/

OUTLAW 09
02-15-2015, 05:54 PM
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
This will go down well with the Kurds. Hadi Amiri: Shia militias to be deployed to Kirkuk http://waarmedia.com/english/hadi-amiri-shia-militias-to-be-deployed-to-kirkuk/

Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Iraq's Sunni blocs halt parliament activities after sheikh's killing | TODAYonline http://www.todayonline.com/world/sunni-tribal-leader-and-seven-others-killed-baghdad-ambush …

JWing
02-17-2015, 03:25 PM
Just released my weekly security report. IS picked up new offensive operations in Anbar Ninewa and Salahaddin. Paradox that casualties actually went down from previous week. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/renewed-offensive-by-islamic-state-as.html).

davidbfpo
02-17-2015, 05:12 PM
The full title is:

Code of Conduct for Fighters
The Office of Grand Ayatollah Sayyid ʿAli al-Sistani
The Holy City of Najaf February 12, 2015
Advice and Guidelines to the Fighters in the Arena of Jihad

Link:http://1001iraqithoughts.com/2015/02/17/fighters-code-of-conduct/

One wonders if the Shia militia know he wrote this.

Bill Moore
02-17-2015, 07:37 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31502863

Islamic State militants 'burn to death 45 in Iraq'


In a separate development on Tuesday, the influential Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr announced he was withdrawing his forces from an umbrella group of Shia militia fighting IS alongside the Iraqi army.

He cited what he called the bad behaviour of other militia within the Popular Mobilisation Forces, whom he accused of "wreaking havoc through murdering, kidnapping and violating sanctuaries".

JWing
02-18-2015, 03:25 PM
Just published an article about the mass graves that IS has left behind in Iraq. The first was found in June 10 right at start of summer offensive when 600 bodies of prisoners from Badush prison outside of Mosul was discovered. Since then 23 more have been found. Is having a lasting impact upon Iraq with the division of society and revenge seeking. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-islamic-states-deadly-legacy-mass.html).

JWing
02-19-2015, 03:21 PM
My latest article is about Yazidis and Turkish PKK forces retaliating against four Arab villages in Ninewa's Sinjar. The Yazidi community was singled out for destruction by IS and now some have decided to take their revenge on locals they claim supported the insurgents. More evidence of Iraqi society coming apart. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/yazidis-carrying-out-retaliatory.html).

davidbfpo
02-19-2015, 05:03 PM
Joel,

As a SME can I pose a question please.

Assuming for now Daesh (ISIS) remain in occupation of the territories in Iraq they hold now, how will the Kurds defend their long border?

I recall from some early newsreel the Kurds were manning a defence line in the plains. My geographical knowledge of the Kurdish region is limited.

davidbfpo
02-19-2015, 05:13 PM
An optimistic analysis of how Iraqi politics have changed and what is likely after Daesh (ISIS) is defeated via WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/iraq-after-the-islamic-state-politics-rule/?singlepage=1


Sunnis will be economically, geographically, and politically disempowered for a generation.

In short, the Kurds find themselves stuck with Iraq...

The Shia no easy quote! There is this difficulty though, as we know rumour can replace reality and we have seen similar legends in Afghanistan:
...it is commonly believed in southern Iraq that the United States not only refused to help Iraq against ISIL, but is in fact ISIL’s patron and sponsor. This belief is largely a product of conspiracy and paranoia, but does have a strong element of believability at its core from an Iraqi Shi’a perspective. When pressed on this belief, pushing aside rumors of direct aid by the United States, southern Shi’a ask how can the United States permit its allies — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are usually named — to provide aid and comfort to ISIL as they do? Their explanation is that these states are the middle-men, or proxies, used by the United States to empower ISIL for its own purposes.

tequila
02-19-2015, 06:01 PM
I'd hesitate to call Ollivant's analysis "optimistic". He foresees utter Sunni defeat and disenfranchisement, and decades of terrorist attacks to come from that.

The only problem with this excellent analysis is that it really doesn't take into account ISIS' "strategic depth" in Syria, and the lack of a ground force that can destroy ISIS in that area. ISIS may lose northern and western Iraq eventually, but one cannot imagine the war ending without a similar endgame in Syria.

JWing
02-23-2015, 03:18 PM
Joel,

As a SME can I pose a question please.

Assuming for now Daesh (ISIS) remain in occupation of the territories in Iraq they hold now, how will the Kurds defend their long border?

I recall from some early newsreel the Kurds were manning a defence line in the plains. My geographical knowledge of the Kurdish region is limited.

The Kurds have a smaller front to cover then the ISF and according to Michael Knights actually have more forces at hand than the ISF as well. They made some offensive operations in Ninewa a while ago, but since then have basically been holding a defense position quite successfully.

Long term however their border with IS and their occupation of the disputed territories will mean they will face a constant terrorist threat that they didn't really have to deal with before.

JWing
02-23-2015, 03:20 PM
My newest article covers Washington's announcement of an invasion plan to retake Mosul. Rather than laying out the actual timetable for the operation to me it appeared to be more of a political move to placate Iraq's politicians who are pushing for immediate action against IS this year regardless of the military situation. All the indicators that Mosul will still be a long ways off. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/washington-announces-mosul-campaign.html).

JWing
02-24-2015, 03:22 PM
Just released my weekly security report. 3rd k of Feb saw a large increase in deaths due to mass executions by IS in Anbar. Executed a few hundred people after it took parts of Baghdadi in Anbar as long as burning around 100 in two other cities. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/deaths-increase-in-iraq-during-3rd-week.html).

OUTLAW 09
02-25-2015, 01:31 PM
Forget about "Clone Wars".
Here comes "Drone Wars".
#Iranian vs. #US UAV.

UAV air encounter somewhere over Iraq and or Syria

pic.twitter.com/Ads964kyKb

JWing
02-25-2015, 03:30 PM
Lebanon's Hezbollah officially recognized its presence in Iraq. Moved into Iraq right after fall of Mosul in June. A Hezbollah commander was killed there. Playing same role it did in Iraq during US occupation and currently in Syria by providing support to Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Iraqi militias. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/lebanons-hezbollah-acknowledges-its.html).

OUTLAW 09
02-25-2015, 03:38 PM
"Iran now controls four Arab capitals — Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sana’a"
http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/the-iranian-fiasco-unfolding-in-yemen-1.1462687 …

What is interesting is that now the from Khomeini called for "Green Crescent" is now formally taking shape and yet the US seems to think that an agreement with Iran will throttle back their regional hegemon aspirations.

In fact if one goes back to 1979 --Khomeini actually unleashed a Shia Revolutionary Movement into the global Islamic community stretching from AFG to Lebanon.

There has been some indicators that in fact the IRG general Suleiman was recently in Sana'a coordinating with the Shia group there.

Then after his reported being in Sana'a--Shia took over the US SF base in Yemen in the last few days.

OUTLAW 09
02-25-2015, 03:57 PM
Sometimes it is important to go back and reread a number of Khomeini's writings in order to under the Revolutionary aspect of global Shiasm and the "Green Crescent".

Kashf al-Asrar (‘Uncovering of secrets’, Khomeini’s first book, published in 1942:
Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males, provided they are not disabled and incapacitated, to prepare themselves for the conquest of [other] countries so that the writ of Islam is obeyed in every country in the world.”

“But those who study Islamic Holy War will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world … Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those [who say this] are witless.”

“Islam says: kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all! Does this mean that Muslims should sit back until they are devoured by [the unbelievers]?”

“Islam say: Kill them [the non-Muslims], put them to the sword and scatter [their armies]. Does this mean sitting back until [non-Muslims] overcome us?”

“Islam says: kill in the service of Allah those who may want to kill you! Does this mean that we should surrender to the enemy?”

“Islam says: Whatever good there is exists thanks to the sword and in the shadow of the sword! People cannot be made obedient except with the sword! The sword is the key to Paradise, which can be opened only for Holy Warriors!”

“There are hundreds of other ayat [Qur’anic verses] and ahadith urging Muslims to value war and to fight. Does all that mean that Islam is a religion that prevents men from waging war? I spit upon those foolish souls who make such a claim.”

About the government of the Shah’s father, Reza Shah — “idiotic and treacherous … poisonous … heinous… a gang to plunder the country,” which allowed “women’s going naked in the streets” (a reference to the Shah’s father’s banning of the traditional hijab covering of women’s faces, not actual nudity) and the practice of “lechery, treachery, music, dancing, and a thousand other varieties of corruption.”

Hokumat-e Islami: Velayat-e Faqih (Islamic Government: Authority of the Jurist) (Khomeini’s best known and most important book, derived from 17 lectures delivered in the main bazaar mosque of Najaf (Iraq) when in exile; it argued that government should be run in accordance with traditional Islamic Shari’ah law and a Faqih (i.e. ayatollah, Islamic cleric) must be in charge). “The Khomeinism Handbook” and bases for the Islamic Republic of Iran after the overthrow of the Shah regime in 1979.

“In order to assure the unity of the Islamic umma, in order to liberate the Islamic homeland from occupation and penetration by the imperialists and their puppet governments, it is imperative that we establish a government. … we must overthrow the oppressive governments installed by the imperialists and bring into existence an Islamic government of justice …”

“Islam proclaims monarchy and hereditary succession wrong and invalid. When Islam first appeared in Iran, the Byzantine Empire, Egypt, and the Yemen, the entire institution of monarchy was abolished.”

“In contrast … the body of Islamic laws that exist in the Qur’an and the Sunna has been accepted by the Muslims and recognized by them as worthy of obedience....

OUTLAW 09
02-25-2015, 05:13 PM
.@statedeptspox says US has "no information at this time to support" #Iran opposition group's report yesterday of a secret #nuclear program

This response is based on the recent story that was "leaked" about a possible secret Iranian ongoing nuclear program.

AdamG
02-26-2015, 03:09 PM
Prudent individuals.


With the help of coalition airstrikes, Kurdish forces have reclaimed most of the area they lost to IS in August 2014, driving the militants out of 15,000 square km (9,300 square miles) they consider historically their own. But the peshmerga forces have neither the will nor the means to advance much further into Sunni Arab areas.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/02/iraq-kurdistan-peshmerga-wait-islamic-state.html##ixzz3Srd4wqY2

JWing
02-26-2015, 03:26 PM
Moqtada al-Sadr recently withdrew his militias from the frontline after prominent Sunni sheikh from Babil was killed. Sunni parties boycotted govt afterward. Sadr wanted to show support for parties while telling them not to pull out of the govt. Same time attacked other militias as trying to undermine the govt, which was a swipe at his rivals such as Asaib Ahl Al-Haq. Shows Sadr's nationalist politicking but also the divisions within the militia forces. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/02/iraqs-sadr-withdraws-his-men-from-front.html).

JWing
03-02-2015, 03:19 PM
Just released my security report for Iraq in Feb 2015. Despite continued large scale IS operations violence went down in Feb. For a short period looked like IS was picking up its attacks as they rose in Dec & Jan for a new year offensive but that proved temporary. Overall attacks and casualties have both been going down slowly but surely since the summer. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/violence-down-in-iraq-in-february-2015.html).

JWing
03-03-2015, 03:34 PM
Just published article on alleged death of IS #2 leader Abu Muslim Turkmani is in charge of IS ops in Iraq. Was said to have been killed by Coalition air strike in Anbar on Feb 26. Problem is he was said to have been killed in Dec by another missile hit as well. Also no martyr posts by IS. Makes it impossible to determine his fate. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/was-islamic-state-leader-killed-in.html).

JWing
03-04-2015, 03:20 PM
Human Rights Watch found evidence that Kurdish forces have been limiting freedom of movement for Arabs, destroying their homes, and carrying out warrantless arrests in Ninewa. Major motivation seems to be revenge against people they see as supporters of the Islamic State. Also changing demographics helps with Kurds' plans to annex the disputed territories. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/human-rights-watch-report-on-kurdish.html).

OUTLAW 09
03-14-2015, 03:00 PM
A Iraqi SWAT HQ in Ramadi before and after an IS attack. pic.twitter.com/gqIsnpxoVu

CrowBat
03-14-2015, 07:06 PM
...and IRGC's (not Iranian Army's) T-72s in Iraq, here (http://spioenkop.blogspot.fr/2015/03/irans-expanding-sphere-of-influence_98.html).

BTW, except for deploying at least one of its armoured battalions to Iraq, the IRGC recently donated - on direct order from Khamenei - 10 ex-Iraqi Su-22s to Syria too. These were partially overhauled in Iran, partially in Syria, and are now flown by SyAAF.

OUTLAW 09
03-16-2015, 03:42 PM
Wonder if the WH/NSC fully understands just what the Kerry comment is actually supporting--the belief that Khomeinism will die in 10 or less years is a figment of imagination:

Published: 16/03/2015 03:12 PM

“Throw off Arabism,” Iran
news agency tells Iraq

An op-ed from the semi-official Mehr news agency follows on the heals of Iranian officials' rhetoric on Tehran's expansionary role in the region.
BEIRUT – One of Iran’s leading news agencies has called on the Iraqi people to “throw off Arabism,” in a vitriolic editorial calling for the war-torn country to move into Iran's orbit.

“The time has come for the Iraqi people to say their final word. [They must] choose between false Arabism and true Islam, and brush the dust of Arab humiliation off their clothes,” the semi-official Mehr news agency wrote over the weekend.

“The Iraqi people—the Iraqi parliament to be precise—must move towards unity with their true friends [Iran] and throw off the garments of false Arabism.”

The news agency also argued that “there can be no doubt that Iranians and Iraqis share religious and historical bonds that connect the two peoples over history.”

The controversial op-ed comes amid Tehran’s increasingly confident proclamations of its influence in the Middle East, after Iranian-backed Houthis took control of Yemen’s government in February while Iran has helped coordinate the Iraqi government’s new offensives against ISIS.

Last week, one of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s advisors said that “all of the Middle East is Iranian,” while a top Revolutionary Guards officer touted that Iran was playing the leading military role to prop up the Syrian regime.


The Mehr news agency editorial echoed these comments, saying that “Iranian commanders have rushed to save the Iraqi people” while “Arab generals are in the cabarets of Las Vegas not caring what happens in Iraq.”

The op-ed also flattered Revolutionary Guards Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani, who has been the subject of a media campaign as he visits the front lines near Tikrit, where Iraqi forces in the past two weeks have waged a battle to seize the city from ISIS.


“A well-known Iranian general has [risked his own] life and gone to the most dangerous place in the world to put his combat experience at the service of the Iraqi army and the Popular Mobilization [forces] in Tikrit.”

Mehr also called on the Iraqi leaders to adopt a political solution “close to the demographic and confessional reality in Iraq,” in reference to the Shiite majority in the country.

After replacing Nouri al-Maliki as premier, Haidar al-Abadi has worked toward enlisting disaffected Sunni tribes to help the government in its fight to reclaim lost territory from ISIS.

Instead of supporting such efforts, Mehr slammed the tribal culture in Iraq, implicitly calling it “racist.”

“Iraq needs a new solution, far from ‘the kufiya, the agal and the dishdasha’, [traditional tribal Arab garments] that heads for a new culture,” it said.

“All the sorrows of Iraq are caused by the presence of the Araban [desert Bedouin tribes] who stalk the Iraqi people and wish them no good.”

CrowBat
03-16-2015, 04:35 PM
...and this comes from the very same regime that's 'Arabizing' everything in Iran it only can... :rolleyes:

OUTLAW 09
03-16-2015, 05:18 PM
Wonder if the WH/NSC fully understands just what the Kerry comment is actually supporting--the belief that Khomeinism will die in 10 or less years is a figment of imagination:

Published: 16/03/2015 03:12 PM

“Throw off Arabism,” Iran
news agency tells Iraq

An op-ed from the semi-official Mehr news agency follows on the heals of Iranian officials' rhetoric on Tehran's expansionary role in the region.

BEIRUT – One of Iran’s leading news agencies has called on the Iraqi people to “throw off Arabism,” in a vitriolic editorial calling for the war-torn country to move into Iran's orbit.

“The time has come for the Iraqi people to say their final word. [They must] choose between false Arabism and true Islam, and brush the dust of Arab humiliation off their clothes,” the semi-official Mehr news agency wrote over the weekend.

“The Iraqi people—the Iraqi parliament to be precise—must move towards unity with their true friends [Iran] and throw off the garments of false Arabism.”

The news agency also argued that “there can be no doubt that Iranians and Iraqis share religious and historical bonds that connect the two peoples over history.”

The controversial op-ed comes amid Tehran’s increasingly confident proclamations of its influence in the Middle East, after Iranian-backed Houthis took control of Yemen’s government in February while Iran has helped coordinate the Iraqi government’s new offensives against ISIS.

Last week, one of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s advisors said that “all of the Middle East is Iranian,” while a top Revolutionary Guards officer touted that Iran was playing the leading military role to prop up the Syrian regime.

The Mehr news agency editorial echoed these comments, saying that “Iranian commanders have rushed to save the Iraqi people” while “Arab generals are in the cabarets of Las Vegas not caring what happens in Iraq.”

The op-ed also flattered Revolutionary Guards Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani, who has been the subject of a media campaign as he visits the front lines near Tikrit, where Iraqi forces in the past two weeks have waged a battle to seize the city from ISIS.

“A well-known Iranian general has [risked his own] life and gone to the most dangerous place in the world to put his combat experience at the service of the Iraqi army and the Popular Mobilization [forces] in Tikrit.”

Mehr also called on the Iraqi leaders to adopt a political solution “close to the demographic and confessional reality in Iraq,” in reference to the Shiite majority in the country.

After replacing Nouri al-Maliki as premier, Haidar al-Abadi has worked toward enlisting disaffected Sunni tribes to help the government in its fight to reclaim lost territory from ISIS.

Instead of supporting such efforts, Mehr slammed the tribal culture in Iraq, implicitly calling it “racist.”

“Iraq needs a new solution, far from ‘the kufiya, the agal and the dishdasha’, [traditional tribal Arab garments] that heads for a new culture,” it said.

“All the sorrows of Iraq are caused by the presence of the Araban [desert Bedouin tribes] who stalk the Iraqi people and wish them no good.”

It just keeps getting worse:

Before #Iran began a nuke program they were fighting #Iraq just to survive. Today they OWN Lebanon, Yemen, Syria AND Iraq #WellPlayed

Upcoming UN report confirms that ISF&militias conducted extrajudicial killings pic.twitter.com/XC6kai3MhS

If the #Iraq army still looks as sectarian as it does in #Tikrit now I'm sure many #Mosul residents will stay and fight alongside #ISIS

CrowBat
03-17-2015, 07:33 AM
...which makes one wonder:

- if 'simple, everyday people' can draw few, 'rather simple' conclusions about consequences of letting Iran conquer Iraq....

Allowing Iran to Conquer Iraq Will NOT help defeat the Islamic State (https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2015/03/15/allowing-iran-to-conquer-iraq-will-not-help-defeat-the-islamic-state/)...

- and the people in question can support their conclusions with a plethora of dependable evidence,

- why to hell is it so hard to draw similar conclusions in the DC?

OUTLAW 09
03-17-2015, 08:36 AM
...which makes one wonder:

- if 'simple, everyday people' can draw few, 'rather simple' conclusions about consequences of letting Iran conquer Iraq....

Allowing Iran to Conquer Iraq Will NOT help defeat the Islamic State (https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2015/03/15/allowing-iran-to-conquer-iraq-will-not-help-defeat-the-islamic-state/)...

- and the people in question can support their conclusions with a plethora of dependable evidence,

- why to hell is it so hard to draw similar conclusions in the DC?

Crowbat---an excellent question and one I keep on asking on say the Ukraine.

DC issues a red line in the sand on the use of chemical weapons by Assad forces against civilians and then nothing...........except more talking THEN this occurs after a series of chlorine barrel bombs have been increasingly dropped in the last weeks--notice again silence out of DC......

Then we will talk with Assad and THEN:

Breaking: Hundreds of Suffocation Cases due To poisonous Gases reported in Sarmin #Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovPKtOjOx7g …

I wonder which will get the most attention, ISIS using chlorine or Assad using chlorine, hmmmmm

#Assad is attacking town of #Sarmin with chlorine gas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujb9ROoQaZY&feature=youtube_gdata_player

One wonders if there are any "adults" with a defined set of personal values anywhere in DC these days.

AdamG
03-17-2015, 10:31 PM
Temporary separate thread for maximum visibility.


Speicher Base (Iraq) (AFP) - Abu Azrael -- Father of the Angel of Death -- is the black-bearded, blade-wielding embodiment of the retribution many Iraqis want against brutal jihadists who seized swathes of their country.

A Facebook page dedicated to the fighter in the Imam Ali Brigades Shiite militia lists him as a "public figure" and has been "liked" more than 280,000 times.



"I swear to God, I am not merciful to them," Abu Azrael, whose real name is Ayyub Faleh al-Rubaie, told AFP at the Speicher military base near Tikrit, a city that Iraqi forces and allied paramilitaries are battling to retake.

"I never have any leniency for them," he said, referring to IS members.


Abu Azrael listed half a dozen places where he took part in battles against IS, but said he was a fighter before the current conflict began.

He said he gained military experience with the Mahdi Army -- Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's militia that battled US forces in Iraq -- and also fought in the Damascus area against rebels seeking to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

http://news.yahoo.com/abu-azrael-iraqs-celebrity-anti-fighter-133311351.html

Short video http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=079_1426548102

Bob's World
03-18-2015, 12:37 AM
And you think this is a good thing??

If this was a Sunni cult figure rising up against those exploiting popular grievance with extremist perspectives, yes. But the emergence of a Shia hero is a whole new brand of escalatory trouble.

CrowBat
03-18-2015, 08:17 PM
Guess we need Dayuhan to explain us the logic of this - in his usual, most illogical, and entirely-unrelated-to-reality, but 'truly American' fashion. :rolleyes:

JWing
03-19-2015, 04:36 AM
Good to see the forum back up and running. Done a lot of writing since it went down. Won't provide individual links because that would be too many. Just some highlights. Did an interview with Columbia's David Phillips on the future of Kurdistan. Did a summary of Financial Action Task Force report on IS financing. Wrote a piece on how the Tikrit op is a game changer in US vs Iranian influence in Iraq. Couple of weekly summaries of security situation in Iraq. Obit on the death of Harith Dhari the head of the Association of Muslim Scholars and spiritual leader to the insurgency. Today's piece was on how IS destruction of historic sites in Iraq is just for propaganda, its true purpose is to loot all of these sites to sell their antiquities on the black market for funding. Here's a general link to Musings On Iraq (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/) for anyone interested in reading the pieces.

JWing
03-19-2015, 02:20 PM
New article today about how the militias/Hashd al-Shaabi might be a political threat to the established Shiite parties in Iraq. All are based upon political Islam and many of the militias if they haven't already will want to capitalize upon their fighting in the war which will probably lead to politics to get a piece of the oil pie. That will cut into the base of parties like the Sadrists and Supreme Council who have begun verbally criticizing and attacking the Hashd for their excesses trying to make them look illegitimate. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/hashd-al-shaabis-threat-to-iraqs.html).

OUTLAW 09
03-19-2015, 07:17 PM
"All we have to rely on is our eyes." Bomb-disposal specialists are dying often in Iraq as ISIS deploys 1000s of IEDs http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/the-hidden-enemy-in-iraq#.jnpAPOb5Z …

CrowBat
03-21-2015, 08:18 AM
This is 'in response' to WP's complaints about a loss of US-supplied arms and equipment worth about US$400 Million (+) in Yemen 'to Iranians' (see my post in Yemen thread)...

Since most of that is going to be taken up by Houthis, not by 'Iranians', IMHO, that's of lesser concern in comparison with fact that IRGC-QF is meanwhile playing with Iraqi M1 Abrams' (see photo below)...

Perhaps Obama could make it official that arms sales to Iran have been re-launched?

CrowBat
03-21-2015, 10:41 AM
New article today about how the militias/Hashd al-Shaabi might be a political threat to the established Shiite parties in Iraq.Joel,
when researching about topics of this kind, please try to find out what's the stand of each of these parties' towards Tehran, especially what kind of contacts they have to the Khamenei clique (for example: via Soleimani-Vahid axis or in some other fashion).

IMHO, such links are likely to prove decisive for their future positions and strength too.

Bill Moore
03-22-2015, 12:20 PM
One view, one I happen to agree with.

Iran-backed Shi'ite militia pose biggest threat to Iraq not Isis, warns ex-CIA boss

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-backed-shiite-militia-pose-biggest-threat-iraq-not-isis-warns-ex-cia-boss-1492988


The biggest threat to Iraq's long-term stability does not come from Islamic State (Isis), but from Iran-backed Shi'ite militias fighting the Sunni extremists, former US general and CIA boss David Patraeus said this week.

Bill Moore
03-22-2015, 02:36 PM
On the lighter side

Life in Baghdad: Joy Amid the Chaos of War | FRONTLINE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftPHG8yGuts&elqTrackId=5BB28E5CC20CA5CA51CCF0651628E453&elq=893134a317c5467f865b7eb8344a8335&elqCampaignId=1230&elqaid=2489&elqat=1


A rare and surprising look at the everyday lives of ordinary young Iraqis. Against the backdrop of war, life goes on. Families are still attending carnivals and…

JWing
03-23-2015, 02:22 PM
Please check out my latest interview. I talked with Col. Joel Rayburn the author of Iraq After America, which was one of the best books on Iraq published last year, about Iraq's political parties and insurgency. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/iraqs-politics-and-its-discontents.html).

tequila
03-23-2015, 05:49 PM
Joel - thank you for that very interesting interview.

The PMU groups look strong now, just as ISIS once did, but the question remains as to how militarily effective they can be and if they have the sort of funding and structure from Iran or the Iraqi government to actually entrench themselves over primarily Sunni or mixed areas in northern Iraq and Anbar.

Tikrit will eventually fall, but can this ragbag of organizations actually take and hold ground over time, especially in Sunni areas, without conducting a widespread ethnic cleansing campaign? And even if such a campaign could actually take place, what Shia settlers will venture from the south voluntarily to hold disputed ground?

Iran's help has helped Assad hold on in Syria, but they haven't been enough to hold the regime army together or prevent the widespread militia-zation of Assad forces. As we see in Syria, these militias do not have the 3Ci or logistical capabilities to undertake a decisive offensive onto unfamiliar ground. I doubt that this exists in Iraq either.

JWing
03-24-2015, 02:21 PM
Just published my security report for the 3rd week of March in Iraq. Casualties were down from previous week. IS & government forces both were on the offensive in Anbar but fighting there is stalemated. Kurds are in the middle of a major operation to clear southern Tikrit. Salahaddin offensive stalled with divisions between Iran, Hashd, ISF & Baghdad. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/security-in-iraq-3rd-week-of-march-2015.html).

CrowBat
03-24-2015, 05:52 PM
In response to 'Tequila's' question above...

You can expect the IRGC-QF-run PMUs to become a sort of 'Iraqi IRGC'.

To ascertain the 'effect' of creation of such groups, Khamenei & Co (via Soleimani) are going to distribute them at different - and multiple - levels of society. That way not only that every gang in charge of specific group is going to get its 'piece of cake', but the IRGC is going to be capable of establishing itself in control over all aspects of Iraqi society (from the political, via military, down to the economy).

With other words: they'll do the same like they do at home.

As can be seen on examples of Iran (2009) in Syria (since 2011), such systems are proven as extremely hard to topple.

Regarding 'funding': presently, a mix of 'few bucks' and religious zeal make such enterprises a very economic. And in long term: hand at heart, with Iraqi oil de-facto under their control, and Chinese banks in their backs (keep in mind that Chinese are meanwhile biggest investors in Iraq)... what can go wrong for Iranians?


And even if such a campaign could actually take place, what Shia settlers will venture from the south voluntarily to hold disputed ground?They've found enough of them to settle in various parts of Baghdad, already. I doubt this is any kind of significant problem.


Iran's help has helped Assad hold on in Syria, but they haven't been enough to hold the regime army together or prevent the widespread militia-zation of Assad forces. As we see in Syria, these militias do not have the 3Ci or logistical capabilities to undertake a decisive offensive onto unfamiliar ground. I doubt that this exists in Iraq either.
That's an issue of priorities and time.

Priorities: as long as the situation in Syria was near-hopeless, it was top priority and the IRGC-QF was 'pumping' everything there, including own troops, Iraqi Shi'a groups, Lebanese Hezbollah, Palestinians, Arab Nationalists etc., etc., etc. They reorganized the SyAA into the NDF, they reorganized security apparatus and re-trained the air force too...

Once the Daesh 'exploded' over half the Iraq, Iraq received priority. Battle-hardened IRGC's own forces, Iraqi Shi'a etc. were re-deployed to Iraq and replaced by the Afghan Hazara units plus Lebanese Hezbollah. Presently, Iraq has top priority on IRGC-QF's 'to do' list and that's going to remain for a while longer.

Even so, the IRGC-QF is still pumping enough effort (money and forces) into Syria to keep the situation balanced. Indeed, the time is now on its side: it has already established itself in control over regime's military and security apparatus there, developed the Syrian Hezbollah (said to be quantitativelly already bigger than its Lebanese original), etc., etc., etc. It's presence is sufficient to keep the insurgents and the Daesh busy, and the regime afloat.

Plus, while Iraq received priority because the Daesh began approaching the Iranian border, this means not that it's going to remain that way 'forever'. It might easily take 'years', but have no doubts: for the IRGC-QF, there is no such thing like 'border between Iraq and Syria' already since long.

CrowBat
03-24-2015, 06:25 PM
A sarcast like me cannot but observe that the situation in Iraq is 'getting better and better'...

Now the US begins Tikrit surveillance flights (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32035340) - which means that, whether Washington wants to do so or not, it's going to support the IRGC-QF:

...The US-led coalition against Islamic State has begun surveillance flights over the Iraqi city of Tikrit, which is being besieged by government forces.

Coalition officials said the support was requested by the authorities in Baghdad. They would not say whether air strikes would also be carried out.

Until now, the US had no involvement in the Iranian-backed operation in Tikrit.

But a Pentagon spokesman said the assault had "stalled", with IS militants in the city centre "dug in".

This is the first attempt to push out IS from a major urban centre in Iraq and is seen as a test for an operation to retake the country's second largest city, Mosul, which along with Tikrit was seized last June.
...
Iranian military advisers - led by Gen Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force - helped co-ordinate the assault.
...

Where's the point? Soleimani is NOT playing some 'advisor' and 'helping coordinate tha assault': he's IN CHARGE of this operation.

Perhaps Obama could deliver F-16s ordered (and paid for) by Iraq straight to Iran? After all, Iran was one of first export customers for the type: indeed, the first 50 F-16A/Bs delivered to Israel were originally built for Iran...

davidbfpo
03-25-2015, 12:31 PM
A short detailed look at the role of the fraction-ridden Kurds, in both Iraq
and Syria; in particular what happened @ Mt. Sinjar and Kobane:http://defenceindepth.co/2015/03/25/the-kurds-as-proxies-against-the-islamic-state/

The author Rob Thornton, who has spent time teaching in Iraqi Kurdistan, ends with a warning:
Without a common ‘Kurdish’ purpose they are just as likely to fight each other as they are to fight ISIL.

JWing
03-26-2015, 02:22 PM
Gallup just released a public opinion poll of Iraqis from the end of 2014. Premier Abadi and the Iraqi govt have very strong support, especially when compared to former PM Maliki. When asked about the economy however people were very skeptical. Read about the results here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/iraq-confident-in-pm-and-government-but.html).

JWing
03-27-2015, 02:21 PM
Analysis of the U.S.-Iranian rivalry behind the Tikrit op. It was originally planned by Iran and the Hashd forces without even including the govt. When PM Abadi heard about it the Iraqi forces were added. Iran wanted a victory over a major urban area of Iraq without the U.S. Offensive started out well, but then stalled when Tikrit core reached. Led to debate over what to do with ISF & Abadi getting Coalition air strikes. Defeat for Iran's plans but just one move in the rivalry between the two powers in Iraq. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/us-iranian-rivalry-behind-iraqs-tikrit.html).

JWing
03-30-2015, 02:23 PM
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq. Attacks went up during the fourth week of March but casualties actually dropped, for the fourth week. Anbar fighting remains stalemated. Was big uptick in violence in Diyala with militias joining in. Kurds continued offensive into southern Kirkuk otherwise reported violence has almost disappeared there. Ninewa IS continues to rule through fear and executions while carrying out harassing attacks upon Kurds. Salahaddin obviously Iran-Hashd plan to take Tikrit on their own failed and Baghdad had to call in Coalition air strikes. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/casualties-continue-to-drop-in-iraq-4th.html).

CrowBat
03-31-2015, 07:41 AM
Iran claims US drone killed two military advisers in Iraq (http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=70736)

Two Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen were killed by a US drone in the Iraqi city of Tikrit, Iranian state media said Monday, in a report that was denied by the Pentagon.

The official IRNA news agency said the two had been posted to Iraq as advisers in the war against Islamic State (IS) group jihadists and that they died in the drone strike on March 23.

Pictures of the two men, named as Ali Yazdani and Hadi Jafari, were posted on Iranian news websites after their funerals on home soil.
...
However, the US Department of Defense said in a statement that it had not conducted air strikes in the Tikrit area on the date the men were said to have been killed.

"Coalition forces initiated air strikes near Tikrit on March 25, two days after the alleged incident occurred and no air strikes were conducted in or near Tikrit on March 23," said Major Omar Villarreal, a spokesman for US Central Command.

"We have no information to corroborate claims that coalition air strikes killed two IRGC members," he added, referring to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
...

Ups...

JWing
03-31-2015, 03:14 PM
Think that's pretty much propaganda to denigrate the Coalition air strikes. The Hashd forces have various claims that the U.S. killed a number of their fighters and Federal Police.

JWing
03-31-2015, 03:18 PM
Just wrote a report about Sheikh Akram Kaabi and his Hezbollah al-Nujaba group. Kaabi was a student of Ayatollah Sadiq al-Sadr, then became a military commander within the Mahdi Army under the son Moqtada. In 2004 after battles of Najaf Iran said that it was ready to fully support Sadr in his fight against the U.S. and they created Asaib Ahl Al-Haq as a secret cell of the Sadr movement. Iran eventually grew tired of working with Sadr seeing him as too difficult and encouraged AAH to break away which happened in 2008. Kaabi went with AAH and became a top leader in that organization. When Syrian war started Kaabi created Hezbollah al-Nujaba which he claims is an independent organization but appears to still be part of AAH like AAH was secretly still part of the Sadr movement originally. Kaabi openly praises his ties to Iran, attacks the U.S. threatening to target their aircraft in Iraq, and says he believes in vilyat al faqih. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/03/iraqs-sheikh-akram-al-kaabi-and.html).

CrowBat
03-31-2015, 04:19 PM
Think that's pretty much propaganda to denigrate the Coalition air strikes. The Hashd forces have various claims that the U.S. killed a number of their fighters and Federal Police.
Perfectly possible: there are really loads of unbelieveable claims and misinformation flying all over the Middle East - and in our media too - these days.

That said, can't say I would be sorry if this one proves to be truth.

BTW, something of similar kind could now happen to IRGC-QFs in Yemen. Despite Saudi-Sudanese re-approachment of the last year, and the SuAF deploying its Su-24s to Saudi Arabia two days ago, there is still a significant number of Iranian advisers working with the Sudanese armed forces and in the local defence industry.

Would by 'funny' if some IRGC-QF advisor working for Houthi now gets bombed out by a SuAF Su-24...

JWing
04-01-2015, 02:17 PM
UN just released a report on Iraq's justice system. Found systematic abuse by police to gain confessions from defendants and judges ignoring it. Many other human rights groups have made similar reports, but usually focus upon terrorism cases. UN found that there is a denial of due process and acceptance of abuse by Iraq's judiciary in all types of cases from those accused of terrorism to prostitution. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/un-iraqs-courts-accept-torture-abuse-of.html).

JWing
04-02-2015, 02:21 PM
Just released my monthly totals for violence in Iraq in March. Attacks and casualties both went up from February largely due to Tikrit operation. Numbers are still lower than highs of the summer of 2014. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/march-2015-casualties-increase-in-iraq.html).

JWing
04-06-2015, 03:06 PM
Just wrote up an analysis of the successful clearing of Tikrit. Exposed internal and external divisions within Iraq. 1st it showed that while IS tactics can delay an offensive they don't have the manpower to stop government forces. 2nd the rivalry between Iran and the US for influence in Iraq was in full play in the operation. Iran wanted to be the sole power behind the campaign and did not want US involvement. Baghdad ended up asking for US support. 3rd it showed that some Hashd forces are not under govt control as they burned homes and looted. That caused an uproar within the political class and religious establishment in Najaf and was luckily brought under control. Read the full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/divisions-over-iraq-war-exposed-in.html).

JWing
04-08-2015, 03:01 PM
Just published an analysis of recent car bomb trends. Dec 2014 saw fewest car bombs since 2012. Since then IS has increased number and days used each month pointing to a new campaign. Looked like IS's car bomb factories and networks had been disrupted for a short bit, but have now recovered. IS also increasingly using them not against civilians as normal but now mostly military targets in tactical attacks. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/islamic-state-launches-new-car-bomb.html).

JWing
04-09-2015, 02:25 PM
My weekly security report on Iraq for the 1st wk of April is out. Lowest recorded number of attacks and deaths since start of 2014. Fighting in Anbar remains deadlocked but Baghdad said a new big offensive is coming. Attacks in Diyala have surged recently despite Badr's Ameri claiming the province was cleared back in Jan. Kurdish offensive in southern Kirkuk stalled but violence at very low level there. IS continues harassing attacks upon peshmerga in Ninewa while executing people in Mosul. Finally, clearing ops in northern Tikrit going on while IS attempts attacks upon government forces in surrounding areas. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/violence-remains-stable-in-iraq-start.html).

JWing
04-13-2015, 02:22 PM
The KDP arrested Haider Sesho the head of the Sinjar Protection Unit. The KDP demanded that he be under their peshmerga control, but he refused and went to Baghdad for support. This angered the KDP and got him arrested. Other Yazidi activists have been either detained or forced to flee for criticizing the KDP. Sinjar hasn't even been freed from IS yet, only Mount Sinjar. Shows that KDP is more interested in regaining political control over the Yazidis of the area than fighting IS right now. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/kurdistan-democratic-party-attempts-to.html).

JWing
04-14-2015, 02:21 PM
Have always been questions about whether Moqtada al-Sadr sent his men to go fight in Syria. He has publicly denied it. Also his difficult relationship with Iran was a complicating factor. Iran and Hezbollah lobbied for Sadr to send his forces but he objected for religious reasons. They eventually wore him down and Sadr was concerned about his competitors amongst the other Shiite parties all going to fight there so he eventually sent 2,000 fighters in June 2013. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/did-iraqs-sadr-ever-send-men-to-fight.html).

JWing
04-15-2015, 02:21 PM
Aug 2014 IS attacked the Kurds catching them by surprise. War has exposed institutional problems with not only peshmerga but Kurdistan Regional Govt overall. KRG & Peshmerga Ministry were largely ignored as two main ruling parties KDP & PUK came up with their own separate war plans and put top officials and family members in charge of battle. For all the take of move towards statehood exposed weakness of institutions in Kurdstan. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/war-with-islamic-state-exposed.html).

JWing
04-20-2015, 02:18 PM
2 things today. First my weekly security report for Apr 8-14 is here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/islamic-state-goes-on-offensive-in.html). Second, here is a report on the security situation in Ramadi. The city has been under threat since Dec 2013. Many neighborhoods have gone back and forth, but IS has gained ground there overall in recent months. In fact it has made an attempt to take the whole city several times since the end of 2014. Here's the story (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/iraqs-ramadi-has-not-fallen-but-islamic.html).

JWing
04-23-2015, 02:16 PM
Just published my weekly security report. IS up ended govt plans for big offensives in Anbar and Baiji by attacking in those areas. Govt spent whole week trying to regain lost territory. IS also carried out another mass execution in Salahaddin killing a reported 300 people. Was also uptick in violence in Baghdad and Diyala. Irbil had a rare car bombing, and Kurds renewed their push into southern Kirkuk province. Read all the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/fighting-in-anbar-salahaddin-increases.html).

JWing
04-27-2015, 02:26 PM
Since March IS has been attacking in the Thar Thar region north of Fallujah. It has been able to seize three army bases, the dam in the area and killed the commander of the army's 1st Division. The latest base to fall last week reportedly cost the lives of around 140 Iraqi soldiers. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/army-bases-falling-to-islamic-state-in.html).

JWing
04-28-2015, 02:23 PM
Iraq's tribes were one of the backbones of the insurgency. They provided a loose organization, kindship ties that could be used for recruiting, weapons, and some had their own means of funding. Read the background to how tribes got to this position during the Baath period here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/iraqs-tribes-antecedents-of-insurgency.html).

JWing
04-30-2015, 02:20 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 4th week of April in Iraq. Was continued heavy fighting in Anbar and Salahaddin to try to regain lost territory after IS offensives. Was a large increase in attacks in Baghdad and a security sweep in Diyala. IS continued with a high rate of car bombings as well. So far however since beginning of new year number of attacks have gone down every month. For more details here is a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/04/islamic-state-offensives-subside-in.html).

Bill Moore
04-30-2015, 09:24 PM
Two interesting posts in Vox. One is a year old, the other posted today. JWing do you think these are accurate based on your data?

http://www.vox.com/2014/6/20/5819018/6-numbers-that-explain-what-the-war-in-iraq-cost-us

Six numbers no one should ever forget about the war in Iraq


With that in mind, it's worth remembering the catastrophic costs incurred the last time the US thought it might be a good idea to involve our military in Iraq. Here are six numbers that detail the human, economic, and political toll the invasion of Iraq caused.

http://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-crisis-iraq

27 maps that explain the crisis in Iraq


The current Iraq crisis began in early June, when the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), which already controls parts of Syria, seized much of northern Iraq, including the major city of Mosul. The conflict has roots in Iraq's complicated history, its religious and ethnic divisions, and of course in the Iraq War that began with the 2003 US-led invasion. These 27 maps are a rough guide to today's crisis and the deeper forces behind it.

JWing
05-04-2015, 02:23 PM
Just published a new interview with Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi about the Iraqi insurgency. During the summer of 2014 many insurgent groups made deals with Islamic State to carry out summer offensive. Other groups wanted to carve out their own spheres of influence, but most have now been swallowed up by IS or gone dormant. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/rise-of-islamic-state-and-fading-away.html).

JWing
05-05-2015, 02:22 PM
Violence has been leveling off in Iraq since the summer offensive by the insurgents. Avg number of attacks per day has gone down each month in 2015. Overall casualties have been going down as well from 7,000 in June to the 4,000 range from Feb-Apr. For all the details read the full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/violence-has-leveled-off-in-iraq.html).

JWing
05-05-2015, 02:35 PM
Hi Bill,

Full disclosure I'm cited in one of those articles. And yes the figures and maps are generally good.

JWing
05-06-2015, 12:34 AM
Just published some new graphs on violence in Iraq. Violence has been slowly decreasing since peak in Jun 2014. Casualties have leveled off since high seen during summer. Avg. number of attacks per day actually decreasing since Jan 2014 showing decreasing capabilities of Islamic State. See all the graphs here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/graphs-on-violence-in-iraq-2014-2015.html).

JWing
05-11-2015, 02:23 PM
I just published a new interview with Dr. Abbas Kadhim of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the Institute of Shia Studies. He discusses the political ramifications of the on going war in Iraq against the Islamic State. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/iraqs-war-foreign-influence-and.html).

davidbfpo
05-12-2015, 10:37 AM
A short piece by Jill Russell, Kings Wars Studies, on the BBC, which gives an overview and weighs up the refinery's importance:
the strategic value of this piece of territory is in actual fact mixed.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32663262

JWing
05-12-2015, 02:22 PM
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq. Was heavy fighting to retake territory lost in Ramadi and govt offensive in Garma. Also fighting over Baiji refinery. Not only that but IS committed another massacre of perhaps 300 Yazidis in Tal Afar. Read the report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/heavy-fighting-in-anbar-salahaddin-and.html).

JWing
05-14-2015, 02:29 PM
Did analysis of increasing car bombs in Iraq. Each month of 2015 has been more VBIEDs. IS has obviously rebuilt some of its networks that it lost last year and is now intent on returning to terrorist attacks to make up for lost territory. Read the article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/car-bombs-continue-to-climb-in-iraq.html).

JWing
05-14-2015, 02:34 PM
Yesterday didn't have time to mention this but I published another interview. This time I talked with Paul Brinkley former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense who worked on economic development and Iraq & now CEO of North America Western Asia Holdings a major investor in Iraq. Brinkley was working in Iraq during the fall of Mosul. He discusses what Iraq was like during the summer of 2014, what were some of the political and economic issues that led to the return of the insurgency, and how U.S. policy went wrong in the country. Read the interview here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/iraq-during-summer-insurgent-offensive.html).

JWing
05-17-2015, 08:49 PM
After 16 months of fighting Ramadi finally fell to IS today. ISF units fled Anbar Operations Command and two other parts of city they were holding. Mass displacement. IS now attacking some of the surrounding villages. PM Abadi gave okay for the Hashd to move into area. Big victory for Iranian backed elements who had been attacking premier and US over this issue.

Bill Moore
05-18-2015, 01:56 AM
Yesterday didn't have time to mention this but I published another interview. This time I talked with Paul Brinkley former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense who worked on economic development and Iraq & now CEO of North America Western Asia Holdings a major investor in Iraq. Brinkley was working in Iraq during the fall of Mosul. He discusses what Iraq was like during the summer of 2014, what were some of the political and economic issues that led to the return of the insurgency, and how U.S. policy went wrong in the country. Read the interview here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/iraq-during-summer-insurgent-offensive.html).

Thanks for sharing this interview, it is worthy of posting on the SWJ Blog. The whole interview was informative relative Iraq, but his discussion on our desire to establish democracies where there robust middle classes do not exist is a point that has application well beyond our efforts in Iraq.


Since 9/11, US policy in the region has been focused on the notion that establishing democratic institutions via elections among oppressed and underdeveloped populations will lead to stability, and reduce the appeal of radical Islamist movements.

But democracies emerge from the presence of a vibrant middle class – an economically prosperous majority of a population that has a stake in stability and that demands a seat at the table in governing their own affairs. Throughout history it is almost impossible to find a successful democratic state with liberal institutions that lacks a vibrant middle class as a foundation on which democratic governance rests. American democracy is no exception – our institutions today would not survive without our own generally prosperous middle class.

Our foreign policy continues to ignore this necessity, in spite of repeated failures in efforts to establish democratic government via force (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya), diplomacy (Sudan), or shifts in alignment of strategic support (Egypt) away from a former dictatorial ally. We still believe that elections are the primary building block to a stable prospering society.

Bill Moore
05-18-2015, 02:01 AM
After 16 months of fighting Ramadi finally fell to IS today. ISF units fled Anbar Operations Command and two other parts of city they were holding. Mass displacement. IS now attacking some of the surrounding villages. PM Abadi gave okay for the Hashd to move into area. Big victory for Iranian backed elements who had been attacking premier and US over this issue.

Due to travel I haven't been able to keep up on events, but noted al-Bagdadhi claimed Baghdad was next. Previously you said that wasn't possible due to the strong Shi'a position there, do you still believe that holds true?

Do you believe the Hashd can effectively defeat IS in Ramadi? If so, why do you think they're superior fighters relative to the Iraqi Army? Is the Iraqi Army still a broken institution? Do the Hashd have better motivation? Better supported by Iran? If the Hashd do go in, what does that portend for the conflict in Anbar? Will the Sunnis turn to the IS for protection?

davidbfpo
05-18-2015, 12:39 PM
Citing BIll in part:
...what does that portend for the conflict in Anbar? Will the Sunnis turn to the IS for protection?

A SME (whose details I missed) was just on BBC Radio Four stating the Sunni tribal council in Anbar / Ramadi have today called for help from the Shia-dominated militias and the Iranian Minister of Defence was today in Baghdad. HE thought the tribal council's call was significant as a few months ago they had rejected such help.

JWing
05-18-2015, 02:29 PM
May 13 while pilgrims where going to the Imam Kadhim shrine in Kadhimiya Baghdad rumors spread that there was a suicide bomber coming from neighboring Adhamiya. Led to a mob ransacking part of Adhamiya. Houses and cars were burned and four people killed. Militias provocateurs were blamed. Could have been a disaster with Shiite pilgrims looting and destroying a Sunni neighborhood. Luckily the government quickly moved in to restore order, people were arrested and actions were roundly condemned by all sides. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/disaster-in-iraqs-adhamiya-neighborhood.html).

JWing
05-18-2015, 02:33 PM
Just wrote this piece on the political implications of the fall of Ramadi. Winners: IS spent months trying to take Ramadi, finally succeeded. Hashd have been pushing to replace ISF as lead in security and some elements increasingly critical of PM Abadi and anti-America. Can now claim they are indispensable and U.S. advice should be rejected. Iran final winner in pushing Syrian model onto Iraq of having its friendly irregulars take over security in country. Losers Abadi who was just talking about retaking all of Anbar a few weeks ago and who had been pushing U.S. plan of recruiting Sunni tribes and building up ISF in Anbar and U.S. that wanted to keep Hashd out of Anbar to stave off popular resentment. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/political-ramifications-of-fall-of.html).

JWing
05-18-2015, 03:50 PM
Due to travel I haven't been able to keep up on events, but noted al-Bagdadhi claimed Baghdad was next. Previously you said that wasn't possible due to the strong Shi'a position there, do you still believe that holds true?

Do you believe the Hashd can effectively defeat IS in Ramadi? If so, why do you think they're superior fighters relative to the Iraqi Army? Is the Iraqi Army still a broken institution? Do the Hashd have better motivation? Better supported by Iran? If the Hashd do go in, what does that portend for the conflict in Anbar? Will the Sunnis turn to the IS for protection?

Bill,

Yes think Baghdad is still relatively secure besides the regular terrorist bombings and shootings. Don't think IS is going to start street fighting there any time soon.

With regards to Hashd vs ISF, there are only a couple competent ISF units and they are being used like fire brigades being sent all over the country. When they leave IS usually moves back in and things go back to what they were. The Hashd are not relatively better than ISF units they just have better logistics, etc. because they don't have to go through the Iraqi bureaucracy.

Can they turn the tables in Ramadi? The quicker they move the better chance they have because they can avoid the IED fields, etc. that IS sets up as defenses. IS has not proven to be able to take on a conventional force head on. That being said not sure they can clear the whole city out of IS without emptying it of people like they did in other places. Not sure that's politically tenable in this case.

JWing
05-18-2015, 03:52 PM
Citing BIll in part:

A SME (whose details I missed) was just on BBC Radio Four stating the Sunni tribal council in Anbar / Ramadi have today called for help from the Shia-dominated militias and the Iranian Minister of Defence was today in Baghdad. HE thought the tribal council's call was significant as a few months ago they had rejected such help.

There is no consensus in Anbar about the Hashd. Anbar council voted to allow them in to retake Ramadi, and others have welcomed them, while others still want them out. More people are willing to accept them because the situation in Anbar is so desperate and have suffered from benign neglect from Baghdad. The government hasn't helped them, U.S. not enough so Hashd are becoming only alternative.

JWing
05-19-2015, 02:21 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 2nd wk of May in Iraq. IS still carrying out large number of VBIEDs. Govt was trying to retake lost territory in Anbar before fall of Ramadi. Baghdad remained a major target of terrorist attacks. 2 major bombings in Diyala. Has been a big jump in dead bodies showing up in Kirkuk. Fighting on going for Baiji refinery in Salahaddin. Read the entire report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/continued-heavy-fighting-in-iraq-2nd.html).

davidbfpo
05-19-2015, 08:21 PM
A British veteran of Afghanistan & Iraq has a short commentary on Al-Jazeera and he is being polite here:
....it is also reasonable to question the effectiveness of the coalition against ISIL, particularly the willingness of Iraq's army to fight for its nation's security. The overall strategy of fighting ISIL using Western-led air power and Iraqi-only land forces is another issue worthy of critical review.
Link:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/05/iraq-truths-isil-victories-ramadi-150519050240243.html

JWing
05-20-2015, 02:21 PM
Intra-Shiite rivalries are being brought up by the war against IS. Kataibh Hezbollah recently raided an office of the Supreme Council in Basra. Sadr has also attacked what he calls "brazen militias". Established Shiite parties are worried that Hashd will join politics and cut into their base leading to increasing confrontations. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/intra-shiite-rivalries-in-iraq-as.html).

JWing
05-21-2015, 02:25 PM
Tried to analyze the causes for Ramadi falling to IS. IS used 30 car/truck bombs, including 10 dump truck bombs that each had same explosive capacity of the Oklahoma City bombing. Also deployed sleeper cells, and blocked routes for relief forces to reach city. Finally the ISF units within Ramadi had been fighting there for at least a year without much support, spare parts or pay. Read the whole article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/why-did-iraqs-ramadi-fall-to-islamic.html).

davidbfpo
05-22-2015, 09:24 PM
After recent events in Iraq, followed by a flurry of news reporting and commentary it is difficult to ignore the criticism of US strategy, plus what is actually done "in country".

Professor John Schindler has a column that takes a longer view and the title explains his stance: 'America’s Top Five Mistakes in Iraq' He apportions blame largely within The White House, he is also scathing about the generals in charge. Judge for yourself:http://20committee.com/2015/05/22/americas-top-five-mistakes-in-iraq/

Kenneth Pollack, of Brookings, looks at Iraq today and he is unsparing in his criticism:http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/05/22-iraq-ramadi-isis-islamic-state-washington

Bill Moore
05-23-2015, 12:17 AM
David,

While my personal bias may not be fair, I read Ken Pollack's book "The Threatening Storm: What Every American Needs to Know Before an Invasion in Iraq," before we went into Iraq. It had almost no footnotes to help validate his opinion, yet this book was all the rage prior to invading Iraq, and was a major propaganda piece advocating the invasion. I didn't like it when I read it, and then when I went to Iraq it seemed like everything I read in the book (surely an exaggeration) was wrong. Right or wrong I tend to discard what he writes. However, since you posted it I read it. I agree with him that the Ramadi loss shifts the balance of influence in Iraq more to Iran, but how long will that last?

Once again, and maybe he is right this time, he is lobbying to get the U.S. more involved militarily, while admitting (this time) that his proposals may not work. Typical CIA talk, if you listened to us and took action when we told you to, then this wouldn't have happened. We're hearing the same narrative about Syria, yet there was no resistance element strong enough to defeat Assad, even with our assistance. Even if by fluke Assad fled the country, there was no viable plan for the morning after, so once again we would have been left holding the bag for another long stability operation.


In Iraq, there simply is no substitute for American assistance, political and military (Iranian assistance will only push the country deeper into civil war) but there is no equilibrium points other than war and peace. Either the U.S. does enough to pull the Iraqis through to peace and stability or the country will descend deeper into chaos and civil war.

The other article from the 20 committee is vindictive, yet not undeservingly. Seems most agree that going into Iraq to begin with was a deeply flawed decision, but was so pulling out lock, stock, and barrel. I think Obama's problem is that he painted himself into a corner with his Iraq party. He gained political power partly, maybe largely, by leveraging the Iraq War in his campaign and promised to pull the U.S. out. One can help but think he believes he can't go back in a meaningful way. Yet, this war and the justification for intervention are very different than Bush's war and his justification. Like the report said, who lost Iraq? We all did. What the report didn't say, is who won Iraq? Increasingly it seems that Iran has, but that is being contested by ISIL.

JWing
05-25-2015, 04:19 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 3rd wk of May in Iraq. Very few security incidents were reported due to all the focus upon Ramadi. Large number of casualties however due to fighting in that city. IS executed at around 500 people during the taking of Ramadi. Had hit lists of people it was looking for and went door to door. IS also continues to pick up its car bombs. Due to ISF units being sent to fight IS is growing lawlessness in southern Iraq due to gangs, tribal conflicts and political rivalries. Finally, ISF continued to make progress to relieve Baiji refinery in Salahaddin. Is 5th relief effort showing manpower shortages of government forces. Baghdad only been able to hold areas after security operations if have strong local actors or completely empty a place. Otherwise have to repeatedly go into same areas again and again and again like Baiji. Read the entire report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/aftermath-of-fall-of-ramadi-in-iraq.html).

JWing
05-25-2015, 04:28 PM
Bill and David

Pollack has always been up and down for me. On this article I think he's argument has some merits. He was saying that the Obama admin's goals are attainable in Iraq but that it is just following through with it. There could be way more air sorties, more troops sent in as trainers, quicker delivery of equipment to Iraq that could really change the situation. Right now it's half assed. I don't know how many IS pics I've seen of convoys rolling through Iraq for an attack that could have been bombed.

JWing
05-26-2015, 02:24 PM
I just did my 80th interview for Musings On Iraq. I talked with Fanar Haddad author of Sectarianism In Iraq about the political impact of the Hashd al-Shaabi movement in Iraq. It has become the leading force fighting IS and created a new sense of Iraqi nationalism but with a Shiite flavor to it. How will it change Iraqi politics? Read the interview here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/will-hashd-al-shaabi-change-face-of.html).

JWing
05-27-2015, 02:24 PM
Iraq insurgency was always made up of various different groups. Now most of them have been subsumed by the Islamic State. Can still breakdown militants into three broad categories. Local chapters often organized around kinship, clans, occupations, mosques. Then the enterprises which can extend across sections of the country and across borders. Usually started off as criminal gangs that were organized during the sanctions period. Finally the transnational IS, which used to work with these other types of Iraqi groups and then eventually took them over. Here's a link to the complete article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/categorizing-iraq-insurgency.html).

JWing
05-28-2015, 02:21 PM
IS declared the caliphate in June 2014 after the fall of Mosul. This was a long term goal of the group. Zarqawi talked about forming an Islamic State back in the 90s. Al Qaeda in Iraq declared the Islamic state in 2006 when it changed its name to Islamic State of Iraq but was largely ignored in the west. That was the actual start of the caliphate but IS was then in decline and didn't have power to create this state. Read the whole development of IS's caliphate here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/05/how-islamic-states-caliphate-in-iraq.html).

JWing
06-01-2015, 02:33 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 4th wk of May in Iraq. Heavy fighting to retake Ramadi and Baiji refinery. IS also continued with large car bomb campaign. Read the full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/fight-for-iraqs-anbar-and-salahaddin.html).

JWing
06-03-2015, 02:26 PM
Monthly security figures for 2015 show that attacks are slowly declining but casualties are remaining steady. Executions, discovery of mass graves and a return of car bomb waves have kept up the number of dead and wounded in Iraq this year. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/despite-drop-in-attacks-casualties.html).

JWing
06-04-2015, 02:22 PM
Iranian Rev Guard and Lebanese Hezbollah advisers have been committed to both the fight in Baiji in Salahaddin and Ramadi op in Anbar. In Salahaddin Iranians were operating heavy equipment like artillery mortars rockets flying drones etc. They also fight alongside the Hashd leading to another Iranian being killed in Anbar. Is the 8th officially reported so far. Read the entire article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/iranian-hezbollah-advisers-committed-to.html).

JWing
06-08-2015, 02:21 PM
I just published my 81st interview. I talked with Ahmed Ali of EPIC and formerly the Institute for the Study of War about the political implications of the current war against IS. We talked about the fallout from the fall of Ramadi for both Premier Abadi and Pres. Obama, the role of the Hashd al-Shaabi in the fighting on other issues. Read the interview here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-political-fallout-from-loss-of.html).

JWing
06-10-2015, 02:40 PM
Just published weekly security report for Jun 1-7 in Iraq. Govt forces were pushing offensives in Anbar and Salahaddin to recapture territory it lost in previous months. Also reporting on violence in Iraq went back up after a two week dip when everyone was focused upon the fall of Ramadi. For the complete report here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/iraq-government-forces-trying-to-retake.html).

davidbfpo
06-10-2015, 09:08 PM
I noted that President Obama has announced 450 additional advisers for Iraq, on the BBC:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33083359 and a bleak commentary by the BBC's Security Correspondent:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32846852

Far more interesting are the contrasting views by two Australians, via the Lowy Institute. Ret'd General Molan, with Iraqi experience, who ends with:
We must act now to avoid a slow road to a noisy defeat. The question our leaders need to address is whether we are merely participating in this war or are committed to it. If we are committed, we must take responsibility for the outcome rather than just conducting training. As one of the many great soldiers of the Vietnam era reminded me, the Vietnamese used to say: 'Either protect us and be with us, or leave us alone'.

Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2015/06/09/Why-Australian-soldiers-must-accompany-Iraqis-into-battle.aspx?

Then Rodger Shanahan, a regional SME; starting with:
Stumping up Australian soldiers to risk their lives when the Iraqi political system refuses to reform or look beyond narrow self-interest simply tells the Iraqis that they can continue to ignore fundamental issues of political legitimacy without penalty.

(He ends with) Little is straightforward in the region these days, and the last thing we should be doing is involving our soldiers in ground combat in Iraq.
Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2015/06/10/The-case-against-doubling-down-in-Iraq.aspx?

I was rather taken with Rodger asking why are local allies, citing UAE & Jordan (both Sunni) not providing trainers - who at a minimum IMHO can at least speak Arabic, are local and Muslims?

JWing
06-11-2015, 02:29 PM
Critique of Obama admin's new announcement of sending another 450 trainers to Iraq. 1st none of the Iraqi forces trained so far have been deployed when there are desperate need for them. 2nd Baghdad is not providing enough soldiers to be trained, and not arming and equipping them. Obama said that the US training program has more capacity then trainees so why take this move? White House may be motivated to be seen doing something after all the criticism after Ramadi that does not involve an escalation of its involvement. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/contradictions-in-obama-administrations.html).

JWing
06-15-2015, 03:32 PM
Just published an interview with Emma Sky. We discussed her time in Iraq working for the CPA, during the Surge and afterward during the withdrawal. Also tried to evaluate how the U.S. did intervening in and trying to rebuild Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/how-did-unites-states-do-iraq-interview.html).

davidbfpo
06-16-2015, 08:30 AM
Just published an interview with Emma Sky. We discussed her time in Iraq working for the CPA, during the Surge and afterward during the withdrawal. Also tried to evaluate how the U.S. did intervening in and trying to rebuild Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/how-did-unites-states-do-iraq-interview.html).

Joel,

Congratulations on the interview, Emma Sky for you gave far clearer answers than she did when I listened to her. I have copied your post to the Emma Sky thread.

JWing
06-16-2015, 03:27 PM
Thanks David. Glad you enjoyed it.

JWing
06-16-2015, 03:29 PM
Just published my weekly security report for the 2nd wk of June in Iraq. IS launched 67 car bombs during the week. Most were destroyed before reaching their target was huge escalation over the 24 the week before. Heaving fighting continued in Anbar where govt forces continue to struggle to control Garma and in Salahaddin over Baiji and the refinery there. Read the whole report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/islamic-state-unleashes-wave-of-car.html).

JWing
06-17-2015, 02:49 PM
I just published my 83rd interview. I talked with Sajad Jiyad of the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform about the situation Iraq's Premier Haider Abadi finds himself in. He took power in the worst situation with IS holding large swaths of the country, a dispute with the Kurds, having to deal with the legacy of PM Maliki, the Hashd superseding the ISF, and whether he can bring about reconciliation in a deeply divided country. Read the interview here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/precarious-situation-of-iraqs-pm-abadi.html).

davidbfpo
06-17-2015, 04:34 PM
A very short comment by Pete Mansoor via the newly discovered Hoover Institution 'Military History in the News' and he concludes:
..without an adequate partner on the ground in either Iraq or Syria, U.S. airpower has proven ineffective in degrading—much less defeating—the forces of the Islamic State. Absent a change in the ways and means of the strategy to defeat it, ISIS is likely to weather the aerial storm arrayed against it for the foreseeable future.
Link:http://www.hoover.org/research/why-islamic-state-weathering-air-campaign-0

JWing
06-18-2015, 03:32 PM
Just published an article on the ghost towns in Iraq. Several towns in Ninewa, Salahddin, Diyala and Babil have been cleared by govt forces and emptied of inhabitants. They have not been allowed to return. The main reason is fear that they are IS supporters. In the disputed territories there is also a political dispute between the Kurds that wish to annex these areas and the Hashd and Iran that oppose Kurdish independence. The result is that these towns are likely to remain empty for the foreseeable future. This does not appear to be a systematic policy however as people were just allowed to return to Tikrit two months after it was cleared. Read the article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/ghost-towns-of-iraq.html).

JWing
06-22-2015, 05:38 PM
I don't usually say this but this is a must read. My latest interview is with Naval War College Prof Craig Whiteside in which he challenges the conventional wisdom about how the Islamic State was able to make its comeback. It wasn't Syria, the Maliki government or former Baathists all of which regularly get repeated these days. He also discusses the tactics IS used and how US policy is failing because it doesn't understand IS. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/behind-revival-of-islamic-state-in-iraq.html). I really encourage everyone to give it a read.

JWing
06-24-2015, 02:50 PM
Just published my 85th interview for Musings On Iraq. This time I talked with Tom Ricks about U.S. military strategy in Iraq before the Surge when America was floundering. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-years-of-disarray-us-military-in.html).

davidbfpo
06-24-2015, 08:52 PM
I don't usually say this but this is a must read. My latest interview is with Naval War College Prof Craig Whiteside in which he challenges the conventional wisdom about how the Islamic State was able to make its comeback. It wasn't Syria, the Maliki government or former Baathists all of which regularly get repeated these days. He also discusses the tactics IS used and how US policy is failing because it doesn't understand IS. I really encourage everyone to give it a read.
Link:http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/behind-revival-of-islamic-state-in-iraq.html

Joel,

Your Q3 and Craig's answer are important. I recommend SWC readers check it out in full. I have cited a few key IMHO sentences:
..there isn’t a more dangerous idea out there right now that is absolutely unproved then the one that says IS is a bunch of Ba’athists in disguise. I am not saying it is not true, I am saying that we just don’t know this for sure.
There are former Saddam regime members that joined IS to be sure
...When actually mentioned, it almost always points out that they publicly recanted their Ba’athist past and acknowledged their mistakes when joining.
Proponents of the Ba’ath angle disregard this final fact: when IS took formal control of Mosul last year, they rounded up dozens of former prominent Ba’athists in the city… and executed them (http://news.yahoo.com/islamic-state-rounds-ex-baathists-eliminate-potential-rivals-122547485.html;_ylt=AwrTccv5NYZVM68AT98nnIlQ;_ylu= X3oDMTEzanAxNmJyBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDRkZVSU MwXzEEc2VjA3Ny). I think that act sums up the real relationship.

JWing
06-25-2015, 02:50 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 3rd wk of June in Iraq. Only 1 successful car bomb and 2 others destroyed during the week after IS launched 67 the week before. Offensive in Garma and Baiji dragging on for weeks. Plan to take back Ramadi on hold as there apparently is no unified command. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/iraq-government-offensives-in-anbar-and.html).

JWing
06-29-2015, 02:30 PM
Over a month ago Ramadi fell to the Islamic State, but the government forces have made no real move to retake the city other than to surround it. That's because there are too many groups involved each with its own commanders that have their own agenda. For example local tribes wanted to immediately attack Ramadi but were stopped by the security forces and Hashd and told to wait until a plan was formulated. The Hashd then unilaterally announced that it was going to cut off IS's supply routes in northern Anbar and then it would focus upon Fallujah rather than Anbar. This is not the first time this happened as with the Tikrit op the plans were made by pro-Iranian Hashd forces and Tehran and then presented to Baghdad as a fait accompli. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/disarray-over-how-to-retake-iraqs-ramadi.html).

JWing
06-30-2015, 01:01 PM
Published my weekly security report for 4th wk of June in Iraq. IS upped its attacks but casualties remained the same as the previous week. Heavy fighting continues for Garma in Anbar and Baiji in Salahaddin, which government has been trying to retake for over a month. Read the full report here. (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/06/islamic-state-increase-attacks-in-last.html)

JWing
07-02-2015, 02:47 PM
Attacks were slightly up in June 2015 in Iraq, but casualties remained the same. Overall violence has been declining since the start of the year. Anbar and Baghdad have been main focus of the Islamic State. Govt forces have been focused upon Salahaddin. For a complete rundown and charts on violence in Iraq here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/violence-on-decline-in-iraq.html).

JWing
07-06-2015, 02:48 PM
Just published a very interesting interview with Princeton's Sara Pursley about whether Iraq is an artificial state or not. This is a common argument to explain why Iraq has so many problems. The argument goes that the European powers carved up the Middle East creating Iraq after WWI with the Sykes-Picot treaty and this made the state artificial and thus fragile. After IS took Mosul it too shot a video taking down the Iraq-Syrian border saying that it was ending Sykes-Picot. Despite this conventional wisdom that treaty did not create Iraq nor the modern Middle East. Rather it was local struggles and conflicts that shaped the borders over a number of decades just like every other state. Here's a link to the interview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-iraq-artificial-state-interview-with.html).

JWing
07-08-2015, 03:26 PM
Just did a big study on attack patterns in Iraq. While the numbers can never be complete avg. attacks per day are probably better than casualty counts which are being distorted by fact that Iraqi govt not reporting on its losses for propaganda purposes.

I looked at attacks over the 7 most violent provinces in Iraq Anbar, Babil, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin from Jan 2014-June 2015. I argue that attacks can show where the Islamic State is focusing upon in Iraq. Those point to Anbar and Baghdad being the top priority and Salahaddin being mostly diversionary attacks to pin down govt forces. The other provinces look like they're being used as bases for operations in the rest of the country. Here's a link to the whole report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/breaking-down-islamic-states-military.html).

JWing
07-09-2015, 03:31 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 1st week of July in Iraq. Government forces focused upon surrounding Ramadi & Fallujah plus 2 month long Garma op in Anbar. Also trying to take back Baiji. IS also launched large attacks upon Kurdish forces in Kirkuk and Ninewa that were turned back. For a full break down here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/heavy-fighting-in-four-of-iraqs.html).

JWing
07-10-2015, 02:43 PM
I just published charts on violence across Iraq from June 2014 when Mosul fell to June 2015. Has number of attacks, deaths, wounded, type of attack for each month across every province. Recording violence in Iraq is especially hard right now. Not all provinces get the same coverage. Biggest problem is government is not reporting most of its losses. Probably thousands have been killed & wounded and the info being withheld. Baghdad is in propaganda mode and does not want to hurt morale. Given those limitations here's what I've recorded over the last year. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/statistical-charts-of-security-in-iraq.html).

JWing
07-13-2015, 02:34 PM
I just published my latest interview with former Amb. Robert Ford who did three tours in Iraq and was the Amb in Syria from 2011-2014. Ford reflects on U.S. policy in Iraq and Syria and some lessons learned. Here's a link to the interview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/former-ambassador-robert-ford-reflects.html).

JWing
07-15-2015, 02:38 PM
May was a jump in extrajudicial killings in Baghdad. Was driven by new arrival of displaced from Anbar into the capital who were blamed for violence there. In response militias and vigilantes started kidnapping and murdering some of them. Read the full story here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/new-wave-of-displaced-from-iraqs-anbar.html).

JWing
07-16-2015, 02:53 PM
weekly security report for Iraq just out. Biggest news obviously beginning of battle of Anbar. Govt forces moving on both Fallujah and Ramadi. Have captured some small towns around those two plus entered some of the suburbs. Real test will be when they get to the core of each city. IS has not been able to stop any major government offensives, but can drag out the fighting and cause heavy casualties. Read about run down of overall violence in Iraq for 2nd week of Iraq plus charts as usual here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/battle-of-anbar-begins-in-iraq.html).

JWing
07-20-2015, 03:59 PM
Starting with the Maliki premiership the Iraqi govt has been under reporting casualties. Now that war has broken out with IS this practice has increased. Two reports one by Human Rights Ministry and other by Peshmerga Ministry have 7,000 casualties either not reported or just now being mentioned. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/iraq-authorities-continue-to.html).

JWing
07-22-2015, 05:08 PM
I just published my latest interview. This time I talked with Michael Weiss co-author of ISIS Inside The Army of Terror. We discussed the rise and rebirth of the Islamic State. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-rise-and-rebirth-of-islamic-state.html).

JWing
07-23-2015, 03:13 PM
New security report for 3rd week of July in Iraq just published. Government forces continue push to take towns around Fallujah and Ramadi with propaganda at full blast about progress. Baghdad had dip in attacks as security forces had heavy deployment to protect city during Eid festivities. As soon as that was over attacks shot back up. IS continues challenges to Kurds in Ninewa. Op to retake Baiji in Salahaddin continues. IS also launching massive car bomb campaign in July. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/fight-for-iraqs-anbar-continues-as.html).

JWing
07-28-2015, 03:23 PM
Just posted a new article about how the U.S. refused to accept an insurgency had been created in Iraq immediately after the invasion. Top administration officials and most of the military leadership continually denied there was any opposition to the U.S. presence in Iraq in 2003 and when they did talk about violence either a) tried to dismiss it as the work of dead enders or b) put it on foreign fighters which connected to the larger narrative of the war on terror. Was not until end of 03 that Washington began to change. This had a big effect upon the war as it prevented U.S. from coming up with an effective strategy to deal with insurgency and showed U.S. unwilling to change its best case scenario for the war. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/how-us-failed-to-recognize-insurgency.html).

JWing
07-29-2015, 03:33 PM
Islamic State had a five month car bomb campaign from Jan-May 2015 with more successful VBIEDs each month. June was a dip as IS had to reload and new campaign started in July. For full breakdown including charts click on this link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/islamic-state-launches-new-car-bomb.html).

JWing
07-30-2015, 03:07 PM
Released my weekly security report for Iraq. Major fighting continued to retake Ramadi and Fallujah in Anbar. Government reported steady progress but there was a lot of propaganda going on. Government forces have bad habit of declaring an area freed as soon as a place is reached whether it is cleared or not. IS has also been able to re-infiltrate into many towns requiring forces to go back in. There is another op to clear Garma which has stalled for weeks. Focus on Anbar has also led to decrease in security reporting in rest of country. Finally Turkish strikes on PKK sites in Dohuk has led to several casualties. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/battle-to-retake-iraqs-anbar-province.html).

OUTLAW 09
07-30-2015, 05:35 PM
These are the tactics that ISIS used to turn into Twitter's most dangerous extremist group http://read.bi/1DbPts9

ISIS can be killed @twitter with an instant respond and kill strategy against the most active http://www.businessinsider.com/very-basic-questions-about-the-isis-social-media-strategy-remain-unanswered-2015-3?IR=T … pic.twitter.com/jndMEJnpTv

JWing
08-03-2015, 04:32 PM
Publish summary and analysis of July's violence and casualties in Iraq. Full charts and breakdown here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/anbar-operation-and-turkeys-bombing-of.html).

JWing
08-05-2015, 05:23 PM
Just wrote an article breaking down Turkey's decision to join the US led coalition against IS. Gave reasons for the change and some analysis.

1) Basically Turkey is going to follow its own policy which conflicts with the U.S. Obama admini thinks it can change Erdogan's view in the long term while getting right to use Turkish bases in the short. Obama only has little more than a year in office however so Turkey will probably win out in the long run.

2) Turkey wants to punish the PKK/PYD into submission and make it a client like it's done to the KRG

3) Finally Turkey wants to give more direct aid to the Syrian rebel groups its supports like Al-Nusra with the Syrian Free Zone.

Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/turkey-agrees-to-go-to-war-with-islamic.html)

JWing
08-06-2015, 05:31 PM
My new article covers a small but important development. The government and Kurds made an agreement to allow displaced people to return to Sadiya in northeast Diyala. The town as cleared back in Nov but was left completely empty because of political disputes which have now been resolved. The displaced have to be let back into these freed areas otherwise it plays into IS's narrative that they are defending Sunnis against a sectarian war to oppress Sunnis. Read the story here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/political-deal-between-iraqs-hashd-and.html).

JWing
08-10-2015, 05:35 PM
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq during 1st wk of August. Biggest news Anbar op has stalled. Govt forces are caught up clearing the same villages again and again. Op was started with about half the troops used in the Tikrit op even though it covers a much wider area. Govt simply doesnt have forces to hold many of these small towns around Fallujah-Ramadi-Garma it clears out. IS also conducted mass executions in Ninewa & Kirkuk during the week. Here's the full report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/stalemate-in-anbar-as-islamic-state.html).

JWing
08-12-2015, 02:39 PM
August marked the one year anniversary of the Islamic State's attack upon the Yazidis in Sinjar in Ninewa province. The insurgents launched a campaign of mass killings, kidnappings, sexual assaults and slavery afterward. What made the situation worse was role of the Kurds who tried to disarm the population before the attack, prevented civilians from fleeing, and then took off without a fight in the face of the militants. Afterward the Kurds tried to blame their rivals for the fiasco, and then rewrote history claiming that they were defeated militarily by IS, but then became the liberators of the Yazidi people. Read the whole story here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/kurdish-government-tries-to-create-new.html).

JWing
08-13-2015, 03:12 PM
Vast majority of violence in Baghdad is due to bombings. Car bombs get all the headlines but it's really the IEDs and sticky bombs attached to cars that cause the majority of casualties. The Islamic State has dramatically increased its attacks in the capital since the winter of 2014 despite a heavy deployment of the security forces. A glimpse into how IS delivers these explosives to Baghdad was revealed at a checkpoint in Diyala in August. Read the full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/how-does-islamic-state-deliver.html).

JWing
08-17-2015, 03:01 PM
New security report for 2nd wk of August. Anbar ops continue to show some progress while joint forces not able to hold some towns they're cleared. Manpower shortages really hurting there. Ninewa saw more IS mass executions for second week. IS counter attacked in Baiji gaining some new territory. Latest IS car bomb campaign increased in 2nd wk with a bombing every day of the week. Read all the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/mixed-bag-in-iraqs-anbar-op-as-islamic.html).

JWing
08-19-2015, 03:08 PM
I just collected together 10 different experts and got their opinions on how they believe the war against the Islamic State is going. That includes Ahmed Ali of the American University of Iraq-Sulaimani, J.M. Berger of the Brookings Institution, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Dr. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Aron Lund of Syria in Crisis, Alex Mello of Horizon Client Access, Douglas Ollivant of the New America Foundation, Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi of the Middle East Forum, Craig Whiteside of the Naval War College, and Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/how-is-war-against-islamic-state-going.html).

JWing
08-24-2015, 02:30 PM
The US said it killed IS's No. 2 man Haji Mutazz in a drone strike outside of Mosul. This is the 3rd time Mutazz has said to have been killed by the Americans however. Read the full story here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/islamic-states-second-in-command-killed.html).

JWing
08-25-2015, 02:24 PM
Published new security report for 3rd wk Aug 2015 in Iraq. IS car bomb campaign continues into 2nd month. During 3rd wk IS launched a whopping 153 VBIEDs! Read the whole report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/casualties-drop-in-half-in-iraq-during.html).

JWing
08-31-2015, 02:26 PM
Just published new security report for 4th week of August in Iraq. Massive car bomb campaign continues. Govt offensive in Anbar gets disjointed as forces head west increasing manpower shortages. Pesh move into southern Kirkuk province. Continued back and forth fighting for Baiji in Salahaddin which IS has used as a diversionary target successfully drawing Baghdad's attention away from Anbar. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/islamic-state-continues-with-car-bomb.html).

JWing
09-02-2015, 02:27 PM
Some might be interested in this new article I just published. It's an interview with an Iraqi who worked for the security services under Saddam as a torturer. Explains how the country was victimized by Baath rule. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/how-baath-turned-iraq-into-nation-of.html).

JWing
09-03-2015, 02:26 PM
New U.N. committee found torture and secret prisons still alive and well under Abadi administration. Specifically mentioned secret facility at Muthanna Airbase in Baghdad, which was discovered in 2010. Maliki said he would close it, but it apparently never was. Read the full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/secret-prisons-alive-and-well-in-iraq.html).

JWing
09-07-2015, 04:46 PM
Monthly review of violence in Iraq is up now. Stats and charts on Iraq in August 2015. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/islamic-state-executions-skyrocket-in.html).

JWing
09-10-2015, 02:24 PM
New security report for Iraq just published. Violence has remained largely unchanged for last month. Attacks casualties and battles in Anbar and Salahaddin all pretty much the same. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/violence-across-iraq-remains-unchanged.html).

SWJ Blog
09-15-2015, 04:53 PM
Cold War Weaponry and Modern Military Hardware: Inside the ISIS Arsenal (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/cold-war-weaponry-and-modern-military-hardware-inside-the-isis-arsenal)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/cold-war-weaponry-and-modern-military-hardware-inside-the-isis-arsenal) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

JWing
09-16-2015, 02:23 PM
Just did an analysis of IS car bomb campaign in Baghdad. Apparent that IS not only has car bomb bases in rural areas of Baghdad province but networks that extend into northern Babil, Diyala and southern Salahaddin. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/islamic-states-newest-car-bomb-campaign.html).

JWing
09-17-2015, 02:22 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 2nd week of Sep in Iraq. Number of attacks and casualties have remained relatively stable for last month. Read the report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/security-stable-for-last-month-in-iraq.html).

JWing
09-21-2015, 03:14 PM
Did a summary of the new Human Rights Watch report that detailed Hashd and Sunni volunteers destroying homes in the Tikrit area after it was cleared in March 2015. Desire for revenge for IS's Camp Speicher massacre that occurred in Tikrit after city was taken in June 2014 and belief that locals were IS sympathizers led to destruction. Read the article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/human-rights-watch-finds-iraq.html).

JWing
09-22-2015, 02:18 PM
Just did analysis of Islamic State car bombs in Anbar. Points to several car bomb factories in center and western Anbar plus use of bases in Salahaddin & Babil to hit province which has seen 2nd most car bombs since new campaign started in July. Read the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-islamic-states-car-bomb-campaign-in.html).

JWing
09-23-2015, 02:19 PM
New weekly security report for 3rd week of Sep in Iraq just published. Anbar and Salahaddin offensives continued to show mixed results. In Anbar joint forces stuck clearing some towns over and over. Propaganda in Baiji so thick can't tell whether any progress being made there. Otherwise violence relatively stable in Iraq for last 5 weeks. Read report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/violence-unchanged-last-5-weeks-in-iraq.html).

SWJ Blog
09-28-2015, 12:15 AM
Iraq Agrees to Share Intelligence on ISIS With Russia, Syria and Iran (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/iraq-agrees-to-share-intelligence-on-isis-with-russia-syria-and-iran)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/iraq-agrees-to-share-intelligence-on-isis-with-russia-syria-and-iran) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

SWJ Blog
09-28-2015, 01:00 PM
Generation ISIS: The Western Millennials Stocking the Terror Army (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/generation-isis-the-western-millennials-stocking-the-terror-army)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/generation-isis-the-western-millennials-stocking-the-terror-army) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

JWing
09-29-2015, 02:24 PM
Just did analysis of recent car bomb campaign in Salahaddin which has seen most VBIEDs since June. 44% of all car bombs in Iraq have gone off in that province. Locations of attacks also show likely VBIED bases. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/islamic-state-car-bomb-campaign-in.html).

JWing
09-30-2015, 02:19 PM
Kurds have started a new offensive into southern Kirkuk province into Daquq district. Captured almost 3 dozen villages but have destroyed homes, looted, and not allowed locals return at the same time. Use usual claims that areas are not safe with explosives, and that they area afraid of IS infiltrators. Kurds are also only concerned with conquering the disputed areas which they want to annex and reversing the Arabization policy of Saddam by changing the demographics in their favor. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/09/kurdish-offensive-into-kirkuks-daquq.html).

JWing
10-01-2015, 02:21 PM
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq. 4th wk of Sep had lowest casualty figures of any week in Iraq in 2015. Eid holiday meant increased security but many Iraqi papers went on vacation so drop probably due to under reporting than real improvement. Anbar op is treading water. Turkey bombed and killed more PKK fighters in Kurdistan. Kurds moved into southern Kirkuk province where they are forcibly displacing local Sunni Arabs. Fight for Baiji continues and IS car bombs picked up again as new campaign goes into third month. Read all the details here and check out the charts as well (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/large-drop-in-casualties-in-iraq-4th-wk.html).

JWing
10-05-2015, 02:23 PM
In Sep a Shiite armed group calling itself the Death Squads kidnapped 18 Turkish workers in Baghdad. They're demands were all foreign such as ending foreign fighters going through Turkey, ending Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, and ending the siege of two Shiite towns in Syria by rebels. The workers were eventually freed and the papers said it was because their demands were met. At the same time the Idlib U.N. backed ceasefire was announced which ended the siege of the two Shiite towns the Death Squads mentioned. Coincidence or was the kidnapping meant to get Turkey's final ok on the peace deal? Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/did-kidnapping-of-turkish-workers-in.html).

JWing
10-06-2015, 02:20 PM
Car bomb went off in Basra province yesterday first bombing of southern Iraq in one year. IS lost its major base in Babil in Oct 2014 and had to rebuild and directed attention upon Anbar and Baghdad. Starting summer 2015 IS again started trying to bomb the south but efforts were foiled. Now finally got a bomb through. Read the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/islamic-state-car-bombings-return-to.html).

JWing
10-07-2015, 02:21 PM
Released monthly totals for attacks and casualties in Iraq for Sep 2015. Had lowest numbers for both in 2015, but was largely due to Eid holiday. Increased security was one factor but bigger one was fact that most Iraqi papers went on vacation so less reporting on violence across Iraq. Check out the charts for breakdown of casualties by week and by province here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/lowest-reported-attacks-and-casualties.html).

JWing
10-08-2015, 02:30 PM
IS launched new car bomb campaign in Iraq in July. Diyala has become a new target. Is nearly one car bomb there per week. Diyala is not only a target of IS VBIEDs but is also a base to launch them into neighboring eastern Baghdad where Shiite neighborhoods are routinely bombed. Read the whole report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-islamic-states-new-car-bomb.html).

JWing
10-13-2015, 02:39 PM
Just published weekly security report for 1st wk of Oct in Iraq. Lowest reported number of attacks for any full week of 2015 but casualties around same numbers as previous weeks. Joint forces launched new campaign to retake Ramadi but almost every area reported cleared had been gong through before showing whack a mole going on in Anbar. IS car bomb campaign entered 3rd month hitting new places like Diyala and Basra. Full report and lots of charts on violence in Iraq here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/casualties-go-back-up-in-iraq-after-eid.html).

JWing
10-15-2015, 02:17 PM
Several new Iraqi militias began organizing and recruiting during the summer to go fight in Syria. Were all pro-Iran which is organizing new offensive to back Assad's forces in the northwest in Hama, Ladhidiya and Homs. Read the story here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/iraqi-fighters-taking-part-in-new-assad.html).

JWing
10-18-2015, 09:49 PM
Very good video of Iraqi historian Amatzia Baram on the historical precedents that led to creation of IS in Iraq and the role of the Sunni tribes in the fight right now.

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/icmes-video-isis-between-saddams-iraq.html

SWJ Blog
10-19-2015, 11:33 AM
Why ISIS is Winning in Iraq (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-isis-is-winning-in-iraq)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-isis-is-winning-in-iraq) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

JWing
10-20-2015, 02:27 PM
Latest security report for 2nd week of Oct in Iraq is up. Govt forces finally cleared out Baiji area. Op in Anbar however continues to tread water. IS car bomb campaign also continues. Full charts and details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/iraq-forces-make-major-advances-in.html).

SWJ Blog
10-22-2015, 08:30 AM
C-SPAN Video Brief: Military Operations Against ISIS in Iraq & Syria (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/c-span-video-brief-military-operations-against-isis-in-iraq-syria)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/c-span-video-brief-military-operations-against-isis-in-iraq-syria) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

JWing
10-27-2015, 02:23 PM
New security report for third week of Oct in Iraq. Govt forces finally took back Baiji in Salahaddin which had been fought over for more than a year. Anbar op made some headway in Ramadi but treading water in other areas. IS's car bomb campaign also still on going. Read all the details and view charts on the violence here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/baiji-refinery-retaken-as-iraq-forces.html).

JWing
10-28-2015, 02:23 PM
As the imminent threat posed by the Islamic State has slowly subsided for the Kurdistan Regional Government it has become more open about its losses. Irbil like Baghdad was originally keeping its casualties secret and was only pumping out propaganda about its losses. In the last few months the KRG has admitted that it kept 10,000 casualties secret showing that the true cost of the war against IS in Iraq is still largely unknown. Read the article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/iraqs-krg-begins-acknowledging-its.html).

JWing
11-03-2015, 03:19 PM
Published security report for last week of Oct in Iraq. Govt offensives in Anbar and Salahaddin continue with major breakthrough in the latter with the taking of Baiji, the refinery and some of the surrounding towns. Full coverage with charts and figures here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/heavy-fighting-continues-in-iraqs-anbar.html).

JWing
11-05-2015, 03:19 PM
Published report for violence and security in Iraq in Oct. Attacks have leveled off in Iraq since May largely because IS on the defensive. Check out the full charts and numbers here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/violence-in-iraq-levels-off.html).

OUTLAW 09
11-07-2015, 07:43 AM
The reality for Sunni's living under Shia control.....
Reuters: 1000s of Tikritis returned after ISIS defeat in Apr., now live in fear of militias. Kidnappings & robberieshttp://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/iraq-abadi …

JWing
11-09-2015, 03:24 PM
Just published another interview for Musings On Iraq. I talked with Foreign Reports' Matthew Reed on his research into the Islamic State's oil industry. He believes rather than smuggling oil and refined products out through Turkey and other areas IS is now mostly selling to small local refiners in Syria and the Syrian government. This is in part due to coalition airstrikes and also due to local demand. Here's a link to the interview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/explaining-islamic-states-oil-industry.html).

JWing
11-10-2015, 03:23 PM
Town of Albu Ajeel outside of Tikrit shows the problems that will arise once IS is cleared out of Iraq. Albu Ajeel tribe was not only accused of being IS sympathizers but taking part in Camp Speicher massacre in Tikrit. After town was cleared in March Hashd and local tribal elements burned and destroyed almost the entire town. Then local tribes demanded not only blood money for dead relatives they claimed Albu Ajeel killed, but also wanted revenge against them as well. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/albu-ajeel-points-to-tribal-disputes-in.html).

JWing
11-12-2015, 03:29 PM
Just published weekly security report for 1st week of Nov. Ramadi offensive continued to show progress while being unable to hold many towns that were already cleared. Fallujah offensive shown little progress and Garma op caleld off. Baghdad leads country in violence. Mass executions continuing in Ninewa by IS. Car Bomb campaign continues into another month. Full details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/bad-weather-halts-iraq-offensive-in.html).

JWing
11-18-2015, 03:27 PM
Just published a new interview for Musings On Iraq. Talked with Kyle Orton about the debate over what role Baathists play in the Islamic State. He also discussed Saddam's Faith Campaign that created a generation of Islamists in Iraq, many of which joined the insurgency. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/what-role-do-iraqi-baathists-play-in.html).

JWing
11-19-2015, 03:18 PM
Just published new security report for second week of Nov in Iraq. IS is on the defensive leading to a reduction in attacks for last few weeks. Picked up its terrorist attacks in response which led to increase in casualties for the week. Full details and charts here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/is-tries-to-make-up-for-battlefield.html).

JWing
11-23-2015, 04:56 PM
Hi just did my 97th interview for Musings On Iraq. Talked with Prof Wayne Hsieh of the Naval Academy who was a member of a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Salahaddin's Tuz Kharmato. We discussed the history and conflicts in the district and why it recently exploded in violence between Kurdish Peshmerga and Shiite Hashd this month. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/disputed-territories-of-iraq-interview.html).

JWing
11-24-2015, 05:29 PM
Just did analysis of attack data in Iraq from Jan 2014-Oct 2015. Shows that security incidents in Iraq have been going down since start of last year. It appears that after IS seized Mosul it was focused upon consolidating its hold over territory it held. Did make one big push in winter 2014-15 in north Iraq but that failed. One of IS's main slogans is endure and that's what it looks to be doing in Iraq. Lots of charts and figures as well. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/iraq-sees-30-drop-in-violence-in-2015.html).

JWing
11-25-2015, 04:57 PM
Weekly security report for 3rd week of NOv in Iraq is out. Attacks were up but still down overall. Heavy fighting still going on in Anbar where joint forces got into the downtown area while still struggling to hold surrounding areas. Also clearing ops in Baiji continuing while IS still has its car bomb campaign going on. For all the details and charts here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/security-in-iraq-nov-15-21-2015.html).

JWing
11-30-2015, 03:25 PM
Just published my 98th interview for Musings On Iraq. I talked with Univ of Haifa's Prof Amatzia Baram, a noted Iraq historian about Saddam's Faith Campaign and how that created a generational of Islamists in Iraq that would eventually shape the Iraq insurgency, and the state of Iraq's tribes in Anbar, and how they dealing with the war. Here is a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/11/saddams-faith-campaign-iraqs-tribes-two.html).

JWing
12-01-2015, 03:19 PM
Iraq's Interior Ministry released its first official accounting of its casualties and the Peshmerga Ministry made a similar statement in Nov. Compared to what's been in the press the Interior Min admitted to 1300 injured police that it had not mentioned over the last year and the Kurds had 124 more wounded Peshmerga. Read the full details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/new-official-casualty-reports-by-iraqi.html).

JWing
12-02-2015, 03:24 PM
Just published my 99th interview for Musings On Iraq. I talked with Nanyang Tech Univ's Prof Ahmed Hashim. We discussed Iraqi politics and the insurgency. Here's a link to the interview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/can-iraqi-politics-find-solution-to.html).

JWing
12-03-2015, 03:20 PM
Published new security report for fourth week of Nov in Iraq. Attacks were way down while casualties remained similar to rest of month. Mass grave of Yazidis killed by IS found in Sinjar. Yazidis & Peshmerga also had shootout in that district. All the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/security-in-iraq-nov-22-28-2015.html).

JWing
12-07-2015, 03:20 PM
Just posted monthly review of violence in Iraq. Attacks have continued to go down throughout 2015 as IS is on the defensive. Tight security was imposed in central Iraq for the Arbaeen ceremony. Although IS got a few suicide bombers through there were no mass casualty attacks. Several mass graves were discovered in Sinjar however with Yazidi victims of the Islamists. Full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/violence-continues-to-decline-in-iraq.html).

JWing
12-09-2015, 03:28 PM
Just wrote an analysis of the Islamic State's car bomb campaign in Iraq. Started in May with over 100 VBIEDs per month and emphasis on both military and civilian targets. Read the report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/breaking-down-iss-latest-car-bomb.html) with full charts.

JWing
12-10-2015, 03:32 PM
Just published my 100th interview for Musings On Iraq. I talked with Douglas Ollivant again of New American Foundation and Mantid International, which does business in Iraq about how Washington doesn't seem to understand or care about Iraqi politics with statements about arming the Kurds and Sunnis independently or talking about Iraqis don't have the will to fight. Here's a link to the interview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/why-washington-doesnt-understand-iraq.html).

JWing
12-14-2015, 03:19 PM
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq for the 1st week of December. Saw the lowest reported casualties of the year. Attacks have been going down throughout 2015 and there was heavy security deployed for the Arbaeen religious ceremony. Here's the full report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/security-in-iraq-dec-1-7-2015.html).

JWing
12-15-2015, 03:21 PM
During 2014 IS made alliances with other insurgent groups like the Baathist Naqshibandi to launch the summer offensive which seized Mosul and Tikrit. Shortly afterward IS pushed out all of these groups and has had a low level war with the Naqshibandi ever since demanding loyalty or promising them death. Read the full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/low-level-war-between-islamic-state-and.html).

JWing
12-17-2015, 03:21 PM
New security report for 2nd wk of Dec in Iraq now out. After lowest reported casualties of the year they went back up to normal levels. IS's car bomb campaign appears to finally be over as well. Here's the report (Security In Iraq, Dec. 8-14, 2015).

JWing
12-23-2015, 06:02 PM
Iraqi govt made 2nd official release of stats on war with Islamic State. Def Min Obeidi revealed thousands of wounded Iraqi soldiers not reported before. Def Min numbers also showed govt grossly exaggerating number of insurgents it is killing. For full article here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/new-casualty-report-from-iraqs.html).

JWing
12-26-2015, 06:29 PM
Real good video (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/vice-video-retaking-ramadi-from-islamic.html) by Vice about offensive to retake Ramadi.

SWJ Blog
12-28-2015, 05:08 AM
Kurdistan: The Permanent Solution to Daesh (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/kurdistan-the-permanent-solution-to-daesh)

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/kurdistan-the-permanent-solution-to-daesh) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
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JWing
12-28-2015, 05:28 PM
Just published my weekly security report for 3rd wk of Dec in Iraq. Iraqi forces conducting two major offensives simultaneously in Ramadi & general Baiji area in Salahaddin. IS also launched a mini-offensive against Kurds in north. Its car bomb campaign also finally ended in Nov. All the details and charts here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/security-in-iraq-dec-15-21-2015.html).