Syria in 2015 [Archive] - Page 2

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2015, 07:48 PM

MEMRI published an in-depth review of Arab media reports on Russian military activities in Syria---one of the best collection of media reporting----

http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8750.htm …

September 11, 2015 Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No.1184

Media Affiliated With Assad Regime Confirm Reports Of Russian Military Involvement In Syria

By: N. Mozes*

Introduction

In the past three weeks, there have been numerous media reports in the non-Arabic media stating that Russia, the Syria regime's main ally alongside Iran, has decided to step up its military involvement in Syria and participate in fighting alongside the forces of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad; some of the reports also claim that this plan is already being implemented on the ground. Arab media outlets, both pro- and anti-Assad, have also reported on Russian military involvement in Syria. These reports focus on several main topics: the establishment of a new Russian military base near Jableh on the Syrian coast; the reinforcement of Russian troops, including with combat pilots, and the participation of Russian pilots in airstrikes on oppositionist and Islamic State (ISIS) targets in Syria; and the transfer of advanced weaponry, including fighter jets.

Continued......

Military ties between Russia and Syria are not new; they began during the time of the Soviet Union and continued after its collapse. During the current Syria war, which has been raging since 2011, both sides have acknowledged their military ties and stated that Russia was arming the Syrian regime based on agreements signed prior to the outbreak of the war.

The most prominent example of the Russian military presence in Syria is the Russian military base in the coastal city of Tartus, which serves Russian navy ships operating in the Mediterranean Sea. Another less obvious example is the presence of Russian military experts at various military bases across Syria. Evidence of this was uncovered at the Tel Al-Hara base in Quneitra in southern Syria, which fell to opposition forces in October 2014. Documents found there indicate that it was a joint Russian-Syrian intelligence facility.[2] There have also been reports of Russians fighting alongside Assad's forces in the war,[3] but Russian authorities have said that they were mercenaries recruited by a Russian firm, whose license was subsequently revoked.

In response to the recent reports that Russia has increased its military involvement in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that his country gives the Syrian regime "widespread support with equipment, military training, and weaponry. We are weighing several options, but this topic [military involvement] is not on the table yet."[4] The Russian Foreign Ministry responded similarly: Several days after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in a phone conversation that he was concerned by reports that Russia had increased its military presence in Syria, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman said that Lavrov had said to Kerry that "Russia has never hid the fact that it transfers military equipment to the Syrian regime so it can combat terrorism" and "Russia will continue to provide this assistance to the regime."[5]

The Syrian regime's response to reports of intensified Russian military involvement in Syria has not been uniform. In an interview with Hizbullah's Al-Manar TV, Syrian Information Minister Omran Al-Zou'bi denied the reports and claimed that there were no Russian forces and no Russian ground, naval, or aerial military activity in Syrian territory.[6] In contrast, Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Al-Maqdad confirmed that there was a Russian military presence, but that it comprised advisors only.[7]

Continued..........

The reason for this media effort appears to the Assad regime's desire to send a message, to both supporters and opponents, that it is still receiving support from Russia. This follows several recent reports that Russia has grown close to Saudi Arabia, which leads the opposition to the Syrian regime, and that Russia's attitude towards the regime and towards Assad himself has shifted. It should also be mentioned that this trend of positive reports in the pro-Assad media about Russian reinforcements contradicts the line that was until recently taken by the regime and its allied media – which involved denial and downplaying of Iranian and Hizbullah participation in the fighting in Syria.

In contrast to the tendency in the pro-Assad media, at the start the Syrian opposition media and anti-Assad Arab media was discernibly laconic about reporting on Russian involvement – in stark contrast to their broad coverage of Iranian and Hizbullah involvement with the Syrian regime. This could stem from the desire of the Syrian opposition and its supporters to avoid angering Russia, which they still see as a key factor in solving the Syrian crisis, especially in light of reports that it has become more flexible vis-à-vis the current Syrian regime, and also in light of the hesitancy of the current American administration.

Continued.......

This paper will review the Syrian regime's media efforts to play up, and confirm, claims of increased Russian military involvement in Syria:

Regime-Affiliated Daily Publishes Article By Thierry Meyssan: "The Russian Army Is Involved In Syria"

On August 26, 2015, the Syrian daily Al-Watan, which is close to the regime and which often publishes articles byFrench journalist and activist Thierry Meyssan, author of 9/11: The Big Lie, published a Meyssan article titled "The Russian Army Is Involved In Syria" exposing the establishment of a joint Russian-Syrian military committee and the military and intelligence aid that Russia is providing to the regime. It stated: "Although at the beginning of the conflict Russia refrained from taking part in the military operations, this did not prevent it from recently establishing a joint Russian-Syrian military committee. Within a few weeks, many advisors arrived in Damascus, and proposed the establishment of an additional Russian military base in Jableh. Recently, Damascus received six MiG-31 jets – considered the best in the world[10]... At the same time, Moscow began equipping Damascus, for the first time, with satellite photos. This decision, which took [Russia] five years to make, will completely change the situation on the ground..."[11]

Article In Regime-Affiliated Lebanese Daily Al-Akhbar: "The Red Army Is Fighting In Syria"

Nahed Hattar, columnist for the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to the Assad regime, confirmed, in a column titled "The Red Army Is Fighting In Syria," reports that another Russian military base had been established in Jableh, and also reported that Russian forces were deployed in several areas across Syria, including Homs, Hama, Dar'a in the south, and 'Ain Al-Sawda, on the Turkey-Syria border. According to Hattar, these [measures] comprise a strategic action that will expand until a comprehensive Syrian-Russian strategic alliance is established, with the aim of changing the balance of power in the Middle East. He added that following the dismantling of Syria's chemical weapons "Syria was placed under the Russian nuclear umbrella," and noted: "The Russian military battle presence in the Syrian war has become a fact, and it may expand and develop, and have more impact on the ground... in the last third of the month of August 2015, officers and fighters from the Red Army landed at the first Russian military combat base in Syria... which is located at Hamimim in Jableh next to Latakiya... [where] infrastructure of an airport was set up, and which includes a military camp for pilots and select units – which could by now number 1,000 troops, but which certainly will increase to 3,000. Naturally, the number of Russian troops deployed in a number of areas, including Homs, Hama, Latakiya, Dar'a, and 'Ain Al-Sawda,is not known. According to diplomatic reports, a Russian rapid intervention force is deployed at a base near Damascus..

"When discussing with Syrian officials the reports in the media and in the field that Russia is beginning to join the fighting in Syria, [their] first answer is 'defense contacts between the countries are long-term, permanent, and developing, and what is happening now is within the framework of cooperation and surprises none but those whose imagination causes them to think that Moscow will not go all the way with us.'

Continued........

Hattar added that the Syrian army's air power has recently increased, and that Russia is providing Syria with satellite photos of the battlefronts. He wrote that "the Red Army has begun to fight alongside the Syrian people in the defensive war against terrorism" and stressed that this is not a development of the past weeks, but a move that began this spring, when Assad told the Russian media that he supports establishing a new Russian military base on Syria's coast. According to Hattar, this does not come in response to fears of the development of an ISIS pocket in Damascus, but is a carefully examined strategic move. He added: "This move will expand until the establishment of a comprehensive Russia-Syria strategic alliance aimed at changing the balance of power in the Middle East from the roots..."

Also according to Hattar, the turning point in the Russia-Syria military relationship was the understanding that Syria's chemical weapons had to be dismantled in order to prevent an American attack: "At that moment, Syria was placed under the Russian nuclear umbrella..." He added that Moscow had coordinated the current military expansion in Syria with Iran.[12]

Syrian Army Facebook Page: Russian Pilots Participated In Bombing Rebel-Held Idlib

Continued.........

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2015, 08:07 PM

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/will-russia-fight-islamic-state-syria.html#ixzz3lYZeiQSg

What exactly is Russia doing in Syria?

Russia's increasing supply of arms and instructors to Syria are among the most controversial issues in world media. But what is really going on?

Moscow's stance on the Syrian conflict reveals an ever-complicated web of alliances, armament and regional plays, widening the diplomacy gap between the United States and Russia on Middle East policy.

Author Vitaly Naumkin

Posted September 11, 2015

First, Moscow has never concealed that it provides military-technical assistance to Damascus. This is done in accordance with international law and almost exclusively in the framework of signed contracts, as Russian officials constantly emphasize. At the same time, in the past, Moscow did not deliver weapons that could cause serious complications in Damascus’ relations with its neighbors. For example, in the recent past, Russia scrapped plans to supply S-300 anti-aircraft systems to Syria after Israel strongly opposed the deal on the grounds that the systems could cover practically the whole Israeli territory.

Second, the issue of fighting against the Islamic State (IS) has come to the fore. The United States and a number of coalition allies are already bombing IS positions in Syria. It is well-known that Russia has been calling for the formation of a broad coalition with the participation of global and regional powers to wage war against this evil, which Russia regards as a direct threat to its national security. Suffice it to say that from one single area in the Volga region, which is famed for its tolerance, no fewer than 200 people have already left to fight on the side of IS. This is to say nothing of the North Caucasus. The task of forming such a broad coalition is still far from being fulfilled.

Third, the moderate Syrian opposition forces, which are leading the fight on two fronts, are much weaker than the terrorists and are losing ground. According to Russian experts, the opposition controls about 5% of Syria’s territory, while almost half of the country is in the hands of IS. Under these circumstances, assistance to Damascus is viewed exclusively in the context of its struggle with the jihadists.

While Moscow has been particularly vocal in recent months on national reconciliation and developing contacts with many groups in the Syrian opposition, it continues to believe that the Syrian government is an ally to those who are fighting against IS and considers this fight a priority. As a Russian official told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity, “We believe that we aren’t helping President [Bashar al-] Assad as such, but the Syrian state, whose legitimate government sits in Damascus.”

According to reports, deliveries of arms and equipment from Russia to Syria have indeed increased. Some Russian media, citing conflict expert Yuri Lyamin — who blogs at imp-navigator — revealed a rise in the number of ships passing through the Black Sea straits in August and September. Lyamin speaks of the landing ships Novocherkassk, Azov, Karolev, Caesar Kunikov, Nikolay Filchenkov, as well as — for the first time — civilian ferry Alexander Tkachenko. Weapons, equipment, ammunition and supplies were delivered; trainers and advisers were dispatched.

Particular attention is being paid to the delivery of six supersonic interceptor MiG-31 fighter jets to Syria, in partial fulfillment of a 2007 contract, according to a Turkish news agency. It is clear that, due to their characteristics, these planes cannot be used to combat IS and are instead solely intended to protect the country’s airspace in view of potential external threats. These aircraft are able to control a frontline of 800-900 kilometers (497-559 miles).

Unsurprisingly, these reports are generating a flurry of rumors about Moscow’s direct involvement in the armed confrontation with Islamist extremists in Syria, something the Kremlin denies. When a reporter at the East Economic Forum, held Sept. 4 on Russky Island, asked whether Russia is ready to fight in the Middle East, President Vladimir Putin answered that it would be premature to address the subject: “We are considering various options, but what you mentioned is not on the agenda.”

These assurances, however, have failed to allay the concerns of the West, including the United States, as Secretary of State John Kerry told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in a telephone conversation Sept. 5. According to the anonymous source, one may wonder why Western air forces are allowed to strike IS positions inside Syria, while the Syrian air force — equipped with Russian weaponry — isn’t. At the same time, Russian public opinion is clearly against the direct participation of Russian troops in combat operations in the Middle East.

Russia, however, also delivers a large amount of humanitarian aid to Syria. Bulgaria’s decision to close its airspace Sept. 1-24 to Russian aircraft carrying humanitarian aid drew a negative reaction in Moscow. To reach Syria there are other air corridors, though it appears Greece granted a US request to cancel overflight permits for Russian airplanes bound for Syria. Russia has demanded an explanation from the authorities of these countries, and efforts to close down an air corridor between Russia and Syria — which journalists call the “Syria express” — are unlikely to succeed.

Another hot topic being discussed in the world media is the potential establishment of a full-fledged Russian naval base in Syria, in addition to the Russian navy’s logistic support station in Tartus, where a total of 50 people serve. Citing a source in the military-diplomatic field, the Sept. 3 issue of the Russian newspaper Argumenty Nedeli reported the possibility that Russia could install such a base in the coastal town of Jableh — which has a population of 80,000 people — near Latakia, “for the benefit of the navy, air force and special operations forces.”

For some analysts this is totally unrealistic. Nevertheless, the newspaper hypothetically broached the possible deployment at this base (were it to be built) of Pantsir S1 and Bastion missiles, Buk-M and even S-300PMU2 air-defense systems, which — provided the Syrian interceptor fighter jets were also deployed there — could foil any plan to enforce a no-fly zone.

One shouldn’t link Moscow’s plans to continue providing assistance to Damascus to Tehran’s plans. Iran is pursuing its independent policy toward the Syrian crisis, guided by its own national interests. Russia is doing the same, while also taking into account its developing relations with the Arab Gulf states. But could it be that the scale of the fight against IS in Syria will expand without the creation of a broad coalition of regional and global players, and even the necessary coordination — a fact that can only hinder success in this struggle?

Other questions are in order: How will the unfolding new round of confrontations affect prospects for a Syrian peace process? Will the intensified war of external actors — Western states and some regional countries — with IS and other terrorist groups stall progress toward implementing the provisions of the Geneva communique issued June 30, 2012, to end the civil war? The fact that lately Russia has dramatically broadened diplomatic contacts with various opposition groups, as well as meeting with Syrian officials, Western and Arab statesmen and diplomats, confirms Moscow has an interest in finding a political solution to the Syrian crisis. On this basis, it supported the plan of international mediator Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations’ special envoy for the Syria crisis. Will he be able to stop the bloodshed in Syria?

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2015, 08:12 PM

Suggest the following----- reread both of the above articles and then ask the question is the second one from a Russia writer--Russian propaganda????

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2015, 08:20 PM

In an effort to change the demography, Assad regime is inflaming the refugee crisis http://www.wsj.com/articles/assad-regime-inflames-refugee-crisis-1442014327 …

BREAKING: Syrian Rebels control Ammunition Depot 402 near Dahiya Assad district in #Damascus. #Syria

Syrian informational warfare is in progress----

Source of story that Saudi Arabia is offering to build 200 mosques in Germany for incoming refugees is the pro-Assad newspaper al-Diyar.

OUTLAW 09

09-12-2015, 08:51 PM

A very brutal assessment of the Obama failures in Syria-----

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2015/09/12/Obama-has-a-heart-like-railroad-steel-on-Syria.html

Obama has a ‘heart like railroad steel’ on Syria

Saturday, 12 September 2015

Hisham Melhem

Former President George W. Bush bequeathed to Barack Obama a precarious and partially broken Arab World. A spectacularly ambitious imperial attempt at remaking the region, beginning in Mesopotamia, crumbled mightily in the inhospitable desert of Iraq.

The dream of planting a Jeffersonian democracy in the land of the two rivers, metamorphosed into an unprecedented sectarian bloodletting. Bush’s freedom agenda, coming after he admitted – correctly – that for more than fifty years U.S. administrations neglected human rights in the Middle East in the name of maintaining stability, the free flow of oil, and striking alliances against the Soviet Union, was ill-conceived, naively pursued, and badly executed.
Bush’s ‘War on Terrorism’ was equally flawed; Al-Qaeda was cut to pieces, but like the mythical Hydra it metastasized and produced the monstrous ‘Islamic State’ (ISIS). But hard as it is to conceive, President Obama will bequeath to his successor a breathtakingly pulverized – figuratively and, yes, physically – region, where in some states like Syria and Iraq whole communities have been uprooted and once great ancient cities have been ransacked, and precious cultural and religious jewels have been destroyed.

“The President will be judged as an accomplice in the historic betrayal of the Syrian people, and in the creation of the worst refugee problem in the Middle East in a century.”

There are no more streets in some Syrian cities; The Assad regime turned them into shallow valleys of broken concrete, twisted metal and shattered personal artifacts indicating that they were once full of life. If hell has streets, they will surely look like the streets of Syria’s cities today. It shall be written, that the words of a sitting American President in the second decade of the 21st century justifying his inaction and his inane silence in the face of the staggering savagery of the Syrian regime – which repeatedly used chemical weapons, barrel bombs, medieval sieges and starvation against his own people – were stunning in their moral vacuity. The President of the United States will be judged as an accomplice in the historic betrayal of the Syrian people – and, to a lesser extent, the Iraqi and Libyan peoples – and in the creation of the worst refugee problem in the Middle East in a century.

Whose responsibility is it anyway?

Surely, the primary responsibility for the agonies of the peoples of the Middle East lies in the hands of the political and cultural classes that inherited the new political structures erected in modern times by the colonial powers over the remnants of old civilizations.

True, European powers drew artificial boundaries – most countries have such borders – not taking into consideration the wishes of the affected peoples, whose promises were rarely honored. This left behind wounds that have yet to heal. But in subsequent years, the ideologues of Arab Nationalism and Political Islam, the military strongmen who perfected military coups along with some atavistic hereditary rulers maintained the ossified status quo or destroyed nascent and relatively open, diverse societies and representative forms of governance in countries like Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Tunisia.

However, Western meddling and military intervention contributed to the rise of Arab autocracy and despotism. The American invasion of Iraq did not cause sectarianism in that tortured land; that dormant scourge was awakened by years of Ba’athist despotism and Saddam Hussein’s decision to invade Iran in 1980.

But the way the American invasion was conceived and executed accelerated Iraq’s descent into the abyss. Hence America’s partial political and moral responsibility for Iraq’s current torment. President Obama’s eagerness to disengage himself and his administration from Bush’s Iraq burden explains his reticence to push for a residual force after 2011, or to seriously and personally continue to engage Iraqis and help those forces willing to live in a unitary civil state, his deafness to repeated warnings that former Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki’s sectarian policies were deepening the sectarian fissures, makes him a partial owner of Iraq’s chaos.

A red (like in blood) line

In neighboring Syria, decades of military rule, and Ba’athist tyranny that was punctuated by violent upheavals and dark periods of repression, gave way to a tremendous popular and peaceful uprising in the spring of 2011 following those in Tunisia and Egypt.

“Assad, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, and the rulers of Iran took the measure of President Obama and they knew that they would get away with murder. And they did.”

The Assad regime responded by the application of gradual violence against a civilian movement calling for change, an end to the state of emergency, and political representation. Every qualitative violent escalation on the part of the Syrian regime – the use of the air force, barrel bombs, Scud missiles and chemical weapons – was taken after carefully watching and gaging Washington’s reaction. Assad, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, and the rulers of Iran took the measure of President Obama and they knew that they would get away with murder. And they did, in Syria, Iraq and the Ukraine. In 2011 President Obama cavalierly called on Assad to ‘step aside’ without any serious thoughts to the options available to him after the inevitable ‘go ahead and make me’ that he was warned would come from Assad. During the deliberation that preceded the president’s call on Assad, a very experienced Syria expert cautioned against the move unless the President was willing to back his words with action. One young advisor to the President, his principle wordsmith, dismissed such prudent advice, saying with churlish arrogance betraying his own ignorance of Syria that Assad will soon be swept from power by the winds of the ‘Arab Spring’ just like Presidents Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt.

Unsheathing swords and cocking guns

For a President who defined his political career by words and speeches, Obama acts at times as if his words carry the power of actions. On his own initiative he drew a virtual red line for Assad in 2012, warning that his use of chemical weapons will mean that he has crossed that bloody line, a violation that will force the President to change his calculus.

It was supposed to be Assad’s Rubicon. Once again, the lisping tinhorn dictator of Syria (beautifully described by an astute American diplomat in a cable as the ‘self-proclaimed Pericles of Damascus’) paid no heed to the American President. In one attack in August 2013 against a suburb of Damascus more than 1400 Syrian civilians, many of them children, were killed by chemical weapons. The scorned President huffed and puffed and issued threats backed by dispatching military assets to the Syrian coasts. Then the President took a walk with another young advisor and supposedly saw the folly of delivering on his words, and once again he flinched. On August 31, 2013, another American day that should live in infamy, he informed a stunned world of his (in)decision. Mighty America shrunk on that day. The word of the American President was no longer the coin of the realm. One could imagine Putin’s smug smile, and almost hears Assad’s nervous loud laugh.

The Arabs of olden days used to say that an honorable man should not unsheathe his sword unless he intends to use it. For ordinary people this is unbecoming, like breaking your word or reneging on a promise. For a ruler it could be a fatal mistake. I remember after writing this observation that I was thrilled when I heard former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in a televised interview saying that he warned President Obama about issuing threats if he is not ready to act upon them. Gates reminded the President of a saying in the old West; don’t cock the gun unless you are willing to pull the trigger.

“For a president who did not want to do ‘stupid stuff’ in foreign policy, his approach to Syria is akin to a case of criminal negligence.”

President Lyndon B. Johnson went to his grave haunted by the ghosts of Vietnam. President George W. Bush will live the rest of his life being tormented by the nightmares of Iraq, even if he claims he is not. President Obama’s catastrophic policies towards Syria will be a blot on his legacy. For a president who did not want to do ‘stupid stuff’ in foreign policy, his approach to Syria is akin to a case of criminal negligence.

A damaged legacy

President Obama’s attitude towards Syria says a lot about how he sees American power and how he sees the Middle East. He seems to be always cognizant of America’s limited power, and what he perceives as its shrinking ability to still do great things on its own. In Libya, he pursued a limited military role, leading from behind and hoping for the best and placing his faith solely in air power. He shirked the tedious political follow-up after the fall of the Libyan dictator, and in fact he admitted to that error.

Early in his first term President Obama wanted to have a new beginning with the Muslim world. That took him to Ankara and Cairo to pursue that path. And he extended an open hand to the hostile regimes in Iran and Syria. He also tried to stop the building of Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories. Then he was hit in the face by the so-called Arab Spring where he reluctantly withdrew his support for Egypt’s Mubarak. In a few months his Middle East policies began to meet the hard men and the harsher realities of the region.
Continued........

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 07:15 AM

Russian military is running the same drill for Syria as they did in the Ukraine--airborne and GRU/Spetsnaz first in followed by Russian mercenaries---there have been a series of social media reports of active recruiting by the FSB for mercenaries in the Donbass to travel to and fight in Syria.

Motorola--a war criminal in the Donbass who admitted killing over 14 UAF has been spotted now in Syria.

Same Russian non linear warfare concept now being seen in both countries.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 11:19 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 11:21 AM

Russian military flights to Syria are ending in Iran and then being transported by Iranian military into Syria for Assad and Russia.

"Regular SyAAF IL-76T YK-ATA flight to Tehran crossing over Iraq right now" pic.twitter.com/Y39TomUJb2

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 11:22 AM

Russia refuses to help Syrian refugees,while continuing to arm & support their arch nemesis http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11856922/Russia-refuses-to-help-Syrian-refugees.html …

Russian AA-systems in Syria, for what? ISIS doesn't have an airforce. https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/643014692378669056 …

No shortage of militias: Lebanese Communist Party guerrilla group to patrol the Beqaa Valley http://www.rt.com/news/314535-lebanon-communist-guerrilla-isis/ … pic.twitter.com/yPcyhBrjaW

Problem is: I dunno a of any Regional/EU/US Gov that denies the Assad/ISIS collusion..yet it still goes on

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 12:25 PM

Young Syrian girls in fight against #ISIS. While young men cowardly flee to Europe. pic.twitter.com/1npwZOVAYO

The #Damascus suburb of #Duma is under intense shelling once again by #Assad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rVZ7d9gg9U …
pic.twitter.com/GLj6pQ8Wqy

Meanwhile in #Syria, our soon "partner against the terror" keeps bombing towns and cities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDGSOM5OBvw … pic.twitter.com/ydG6fRPhit

فيصل بن فرحان @FaisalbinFarhan
Ukraine now Syria.... I hope NATO isn't planing on making a habit of being caught surprised by Russian moves https://twitter.com/defenseone/status/643031631855505408 …

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 12:26 PM

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21664155-hopes-diplomatic-progress-aimed-ending-war-go-reverse-positions?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/positionsharden

Positions harden

Hopes for diplomatic progress aimed at ending the war go into reverse

Sep 12th 2015 | CAIRO

A FREAK sandstorm that swirled out of the Syrian Desert blotted skies over much of the Middle East from September 7th to 9th. Choking dust added to the misery of war-ravaged Syria, yet brought a brief respite from both the Syrian regime’s deadly barrel bombs and, in the parts of Syria and Iraq held by Islamic State (IS), from coalition air-raids targeting the self-declared caliphate.

The giant dust cloud also provided a metaphor for the muddle of a brutal four-and-a-half-year-long conflict that keeps sucking in more armed actors even as it spews out ever more refugees. Bitter polarisation, not only between local groups but between their international sponsors, repeatedly obliterates any chance for peace.

A flurry of diplomacy in August had, for instance, seemed the result of a growing convergence of interests between nearly all the main actors in Syria about the need to defeat IS. There were reasons to be hopeful. The deal over Iran’s nuclear program, Russia’s need to calm tense relations with the West, the growing exhaustion on the ground of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, the keenness of America and its allies to show some progress after a year of bombarding IS, plus Turkey’s decision in July to commit more effort to the American coalition; all these factors suggested the possibility of movement.

Russia, which despite its backing for Mr Assad has kept ties open with his foes, sponsored a constellation of meetings in Moscow and elsewhere. They brought together Vladimir Putin and several Arab heads of state, as well as Syrian government and opposition figures, Iranian officials and others. Yet it is now clear that no one has in fact budged. Russia and Iran, the main diplomatic and military sponsors of Mr Assad’s regime, announced renewed commitments to his survival. America and its allies retorted, with varying degrees of firmness, that the Syrian leader bears too much responsibility for the rise of IS, and has too much blood on his own hands, to be part of any transition. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, in particular, remain adamant that Mr Assad must go.

Back to battle

Positions on both sides seem now, if anything, to have hardened. Iran’s soft-spoken foreign minister, Javad Zarif, deflated what some Western diplomats had taken as hints that the Islamic Republic might be flexible about a regime it has supported with billions of dollars worth of arms and fuel as well as thousands of proxy fighters. “Those who set conditions about the Syrian president should be blamed for the continued war,” he said on September 7th.

Russia, for its part, appeared piqued that neither America nor its allies in the Middle East is prepared to drop its rejection of Mr Assad in the interest of joining forces against IS. “The demand for Assad’s resignation as a precondition for the struggle against terrorism is completely unrealistic and counterproductive,” said Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, on September 1st. His words reflected Russia’s long insistence that the Syrian regime represents a bulwark in the global struggle against Islamist extremism—and a belief that its Western critics are naive to assert that Mr Assad’s own brutality and his efforts to stir sectarian hatred have been not only the prime recruiting tools for IS, but also the prime creator of refugees.

Quietly, Russia also backed up these words with action. Since the start of Syria’s war in 2011 it has supplied Mr Assad with a constant flow of arms, spare parts, intelligence and technical aid. That flow has now increased markedly. The number of ships docking at Russia’s naval depot in the Syrian port of Tartus—its sole military facility outside the former Soviet Union—has grown. Instead of small numbers of regular conscripts, Russia has begun rotating in groups of highly trained infantry. American officials say they have detected the unloading of prefabricated units to house up to 1,000 Russian troops. Russia has also escalated propaganda to bolster Mr Assad; among other moves it dispatched a teen weightlifting star, Maryana Naumova, “the world’s strongest girl”, to the Syrian capital at the invitation of Asma al-Assad, the president’s wife.

While there is no sign that America or its allies have any intention of matching Russia’s bravado by putting troops on the ground in Syria, the coalition air effort is also expanding. Britain announced this week that it has undertaken its first drone strike in Syria (see article). France has launched aerial reconnaissance operations in advance of its own possible air strikes, and Australia has announced that it, too, is joining the aerial campaign. On September 9th, meanwhile, Syrian sources claimed that a coalition air raid west of the IS capital, Raqqa, had killed as many as 20 civilians who had been drafted to dig trenches for the jihadists.

Since its losses to coalition-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria earlier in the summer, IS has largely held its ground despite the bombing campaign. Mr Assad’s forces have not fared so well. On September 9th they admitted the loss to a rebel force of an important airbase south of Aleppo, Syria’s second city (its largest in population terms, at least before the war). The defeat follows a sequence of smaller setbacks for the regime, and endangers the long and narrow salient that is the Assad government’s sole supply route to the city, where its forces have been locked in a ruinous two-year war of attrition against multiple rebel groups.

Embarrassingly for America and its allies, the rebel force that captured the air base was led by Jabhat al Nusra, the Syrian affiliate of al-Qaeda and itself a target of American air raids. The fall of Aleppo would be a disastrous blow to Mr Assad, but it would also generate yet another flood of refugees, adding to the 7.6m already displaced in Syria and 4m who have fled abroad. This time, for a change, the new wave of arrivals in Europe would largely be Mr Assad’s supporters.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 12:58 PM

If we take the experience of the Russian "humanitarian aid convoys" into the Ukraine ratio for military to civilian "aid" this means 80 tons of military aid.

Russia delivered 80 tons of "aid" to Syria. https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/643030418485309440 …

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 05:02 PM

This is a development of extreme strategic significance. ISIS isn't just in Sinai any more. IS reportedly spreading in Egypt. https://twitter.com/incworldagency/status/643070130776375301 …

AND the narrative of this Iranian message is what again????
Khamenei.ir
‏@khamenei_ir If any war happens...
https://youtu.be/QjmDV8kagV8

Russia signature '#humanitarianconvoy ', first for #Syria, has just arrived. This time, they used 2 cargo planes. https://twitter.com/UKROPSTEEL/status/643025466681618432 …

Their faces when they send soldiers to die in the #Syria to rise the price for #Russian oil but it doesn't works... pic.twitter.com/wx30GzMPQI

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 05:03 PM

This is a telling comment about the lack of any US strategic thinking at any level when it comes to Russia and especially Putin either in the Ukraine and or Syria—even now.

Earnest said that the U.S. remains unsure about Russia’s intentions in Syria. (Critics say this inability to understand President Vladimir Putin prevented the Obama administration from anticipating the invasion of Ukraine, or responding effectively to the conflict that followed.)

“At this point, it’s hard to tell exactly what they’re planning to do,” he said. “We’ve, I think. tried to make clear what we would like to see them do, but ultimately they’ll have to decide.”

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 05:22 PM

Russia Expanding Syrian Latakia Airport. No #Syrian mil & civ personnel allowed to the site http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syria-group-russia-expanding-major-syrian-airport-33724072 … pic.twitter.com/2IBvYp4OHl

Bombing Assad would probably mean bombing Russian troops as well by now. Good idea?

BREAKING: Syrian Rebels declare general mobilization in #Damascus and its countryside.

Assad is needed to stop ISIS?
Hardly. His barrel bombs are ISIS's best recruiting tool.
http://bit.ly/1NxhoXA pic.twitter.com/OQTDfF3W7X

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 07:34 PM

http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/moscows-moves-syria-5-messages-russia-sending-the-world-13823

Moscow's Moves in Syria: 5 Messages Russia Is Sending to the World

As Russian ships and planes continue to deposit additional personnel and equipment in Syria, here are five geopolitical messages Russian president Vladimir Putin is sending to the world:

One: Reports of Russia’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. In other words, the narrative that Western sanctions plus falling oil prices combined with China’s economic slowdown have brought the Kremlin to the edge of collapse is quite premature. Russia has only a fraction of U.S. global power projection capabilities but in its ability to send forces to Syria it still ranks among a select few countries—with more European countries prepared to fall off that list—who can send and sustain military forces beyond their immediate borders. The Kremlin is clearly signaling that it plans to take an active role in setting the agenda in the Middle East—and not to passively accept an American vision for how the future should unfold.

Second: Putin is making it clear that he will not accept Washington's default position that the removal of a brutal strongman from power is a path to greater long-term stability in the Middle East. And while the United States and Europe continue to debate their next moves, particularly in the wake of the migrant crisis, Russia is prepared to act on its assessment that more direct military assistance to aid Assad in combating the Islamic State is the best way to end the conflict. Putin has repeatedly indicated that if the goal of Western policy is to reduce the flow of refugees and decrease the threat of Islamic terrorism gaining a new Afghanistan-style base of operations, then the experience of Iraq and Libya suggests that overthrowing Assad and hoping the opposition can form a more effective and stable state administration will not achieve these ends. Having reached this conclusion, Putin is uninterested in asking for the West's permission or Washington's blessing.

Third: Russia is more confident of its position in Ukraine. The uptick in violence over the summer has receded, with the cease-fire again largely appearing to be holding. At the same time, Ukraine’s ongoing domestic political and economic woes suggest that there will be no major breakthrough that will solidify the Maidan revolution and put the country on an irreversible path towards closer integration with the Euro-Atlantic world. Instead, things appear to be settling down into a protracted frozen conflict where Moscow retains most of the leverage.

Forth: The Kremlin enforces its red lines. Just as Moscow would not permit the separatists to face catastrophic defeat last summer in Ukraine, Russia has signaled that it will not sit by and allow Bashar al- Assad to be overthrown or removed by outside military action. With more Russian forces on the ground, and reportedly augmenting Assad's air defense capabilities, the risk calculus for any sort of U.S. or NATO action against Assad's government has dramatically increased. Even more limited proposals; such as enforcing a no-fly zone to create protected space on the ground for refugees now opens up the possibility for a clash with Russian forces.

And Fifth: Russia's willingness to put "boots on the ground" in Syria, in contrast to a increasingly desperate search on Washington's part for local proxies willing and able to fight both Assad and ISIS and the reluctance of key U.S. allies to take on more of the burden, serves several purposes. It reassures Russian partners that Moscow is prepared to meet its pledges even if there is a cost in terms of resources, lives, and reputation. This has not gone unnoticed in places like Egypt and Azerbaijan, where governments question the depth of the American commitment to their well-being. For Middle Eastern countries that have opposed Russian policy in Syria, Putin's decision to up the ante may lead them to reassess whether the path to a viable settlement resides not in Washington, soon to be increasingly distracted by an election campaign, but through Moscow.

Putin's decision reflects an assessment that the risk of greater Russian involvement in Syria is outweighed by the dangers to Russian interests if Assad should fall. Russia will not be persuaded by strongly worded demarches to reverse its deployment. The United States, in charting its response, needs to be guided by a similar calculation of the ends it hopes to achieve with the means it is prepared to commit.

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 07:35 PM

Poor #Assad. Despite #Russia's vast support, he's unable 2 even start fighting #ISIS w/o special invite from West. https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/643080483308371969 …

OUTLAW 09

09-13-2015, 07:47 PM

Some SAA/SyAAF personnel who've managed to withdraw from Abu Duhur Airbase have made it to an NDF checkpoin... http://redd.it/3kte0x

Syria #jazal_field Daesh published a video, showing the Battle, when they show off the captured weapon's, they also pic.twitter.com/glncCI1Ob5

show this 9K115 Metis ATGM system with 6 missile's in crates... pic.twitter.com/MLvp6ovRV7

Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
Russia calls on US to co-operate with its military in Syria - http://FT.com http://on.ft.com/1K18DPt via @FT

Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
Mark the progression of logic. Kremlin and apologists went from denying a new military buildup to saying "no big deal, same as always"...

Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
... to acknowledging direct Russian intervention to warning the West that "accidents" may occur if we don't coordinate.

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 10:41 AM

If roads between Homs & Damascus can be blocked, there will be incentive for regime to sit down.
But afraid Assad needs to go first.

Strategic areas taken by rebels will eventually lead to talks. Talks where rebels/regime meet as equals.

What happened yesterday in eastern Ghouta is exactly what is needed for eventual political solution.

Another view based on full @IUCAnalysts map: recent @CENTCOM targets in Syria in relation to Russian base in Tartus. pic.twitter.com/SLsyuxzFaZ

More mixed signals from Moscow? Putin Said to Explore Sidelining Assad Even as Russia Arms Him http://bloom.bg/1K8HfBe

Footage
Syrian #FSA rebels fire foreign-supplied 60 and 82 mm mortars on the #Latakia-#Idlib border.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fWZl41zUqQ …

Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai
Iraq hits the Iranian influence: Abadi heading toward dismantling Hashd al-Sha’bi. My take
http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2015/09/14/619795/nr/iraq … pic.twitter.com/zNRGeBvpXt

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 10:42 AM

Humor----

Russia sends advanced air defences to #Syria even though #ISIS doesn't have jets, 'They might have magic carpets' pic.twitter.com/yStNta3IpH

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 03:05 PM

Appears Kerry needs to come up with a new plan-----other that calling on the phone and complaining.

Russia is going all in on their deployment into Syria—this is not just any old train and equip—the T-90 is the most modern Russian tank and even on the Ukraine only one and or two were spotted and reported via social media—not the seven at one time mentioned here.

Appears that actually Russia have in fact be bringing in three Russian brigades which is far more than what is needed for a train and equip mission—besides the most the Syrians have been driving are the T-72s.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/14/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-id...

Russia positioning tanks at Syria airfield: U.S. officials

WASHINGTON

Russia has positioned about a half dozen tanks at a Syrian airfield where it has been steadily building up defenses, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter.

One of the U.S. officials said seven Russian T-90 tanks were seen at the airfield near Latakia, a stronghold of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The two U.S. officials said Russia had also positioned artillery there.

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 03:13 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/14/opinion/dont-trust-putin-on-syria.html

The Opinion Pages | Op-Ed Contributor

Don’t Trust Putin on Syria

By ANDREW FOXALL

SEPT. 14, 2015

LONDON — SYRIA is being destroyed. The civil war, now more than four years old, has left the country in ruins. The implacable Islamic State controls vast areas of the north and east, and the barbaric regime of President Bashar al-Assad maintains its Damascus stronghold.

The Western powers — the United States and Europe — have no good options to combat the Islamic State, but they can’t do nothing. Either they must work with Mr. Assad’s regime to combat the jihadists, or ignore its existence and undertake military action alone to push back the jihadists. Thus far, though, the American-led air campaign against the Islamic State has done little to halt its advances.

This stark choice is a result of the failure of recent Western policy. One person who understands this better than most is the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin.

On Sept. 4, Mr. Putin announced that Russia had been providing military aid to Damascus against the Islamic State — support that has recently been ramped up. He also called for “some kind of an international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism.” This is in keeping with Moscow’s Syria policy, which has been consistent since 2010: Block any American-backed move to remove Mr. Assad from power and instead force the West to embrace him as a partner.

Russia has been isolated by the West because of its actions in Ukraine, but now presents itself as an unlikely savior — an indispensable partner in the West’s efforts against Islamist extremism.

We’ve been here before. After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Mr. Putin was the first world leader to speak with President George W. Bush. Days later, Mr. Putin promised Russia’s support for the American-led coalition against the Taliban in Afghanistan, urging others to join Russia in “fighting international terrorism.”

Islamist terrorism is an issue close to Mr. Putin’s heart; it helped him rise to power in the first place. Over several weeks in September 1999, a series of bombings destroyed four apartment buildings in Moscow and two other Russian cities. Almost 300 people were killed, with hundreds more injured.

Islamist terrorists from the southern Russian republic of Chechnya were blamed for the attacks. Given that pretext, Russia’s traumatized public readily acquiesced when Moscow began a second war in Chechnya. A few months after the invasion, Russia’s then relatively unknown, recently appointed prime minister, Mr. Putin, was swept into the presidency.

There are issues, however, with the official narrative. Critics point to evidence that the apartment bombings were carried out by Russia’s Federal Security Bureau, or at least with F.S.B. involvement.

Less than a week after the fourth bombing, a fifth bomb was uncovered in the basement of a building in another Russian city. It was disarmed before it could explode, and the bombers were arrested and identified. They turned out to be not Chechen terrorists but F.S.B. agents. Mr. Putin, himself a former head of the F.S.B., dismissed the notion that the bombings were a state-sponsored plot.

Yet suspicions that Moscow manipulates terrorism for its own purposes have re-emerged. In July, Novaya Gazeta, one of Russia’s few remaining independent newspapers, reported that the F.S.B. had been controlling the flow of jihadists from the North Caucasus to Syria, where many joined the Islamic State. The newspaper’s investigation found that the F.S.B. had established a “green corridor” allowing Islamist radicals to travel via Turkey, since Moscow would rather have these jihadists fighting in Syria than in Russia.

So much for leading the international effort against terrorism. Yet, that same month, President Obama said he was “encouraged” by a call from Mr. Putin to discuss Syria, and that this “offers us an opportunity to have a serious conversation.” Mr. Obama should not be fooled.

Mr. Putin’s master plan for Syria — promoted by his foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov — is clear: that the Western and Arab countries, which form the present anti-Islamic State coalition, should join forces with Mr. Assad, together with Kurdish and Iraqi troops; Iran, Hezbollah and Russia may also join this alliance. The coalition would obtain a formal mandate from the United Nations Security Council and then defeat the jihadist insurgency.

Russia would then bring Mr. Assad to the negotiating table and oversee a political transition that preserves his regime. Mr. Putin plans to address the United Nations General Assembly later this month about this plan.

In promoting a rapprochement between Russia and the West over the Islamic State, Mr. Putin hopes to rehabilitate himself, just as he did after Sept. 11. Back then, Mr. Putin convinced the West that the threat it faced in Afghanistan and elsewhere was the same as Russia faced in Chechnya. By doing so, Russia’s president was able to tamp down Western criticism of Russia’s brutality in Chechnya.

The Kremlin saw the West’s enthusiasm for cooperation as weakness. It led Mr. Putin to believe that he could act however he liked in Russia, and get away with it. That belief still prevails — but no longer applies only to Russia.

If a new rapprochement on Syria goes ahead, Ukraine would be conveniently forgotten. This would risk undermining the West’s Ukraine-related sanctions, and provide Mr. Putin with tacit recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s dominance of eastern Ukraine.

Russia would thus have triumphed over the world order imposed by the West after the end of the Cold War. America’s enemies, from China to Iran, would see this as an invitation to redefine their relationships with Washington.

The West should consider all options on Syria — including an international coalition with Russia against the Islamic State. But if that is the chosen course, the West must doubt that Mr. Putin can be trusted, that intelligence shared by Russia will be credible, or that the Kremlin can help negotiate a diplomatic settlement in Syria that the West and its Arab allies can support.

Georgia and Ukraine show what happens when the West does not block Russia’s coercive diplomacy. We must not let Mr. Putin dictate the terms of cooperation. To do so risks repeating past mistakes.

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 03:31 PM

Russia confirmed that their latest T-90 tanks are in "one of the Arab countries". Guess where? ;) https://twitter.com/rianru/status/643440243228700672 …

Syria: More photos for areas (mounts and bases) captured by Rebels in NE-#Damascus. pic.twitter.com/914TosRc3k

The fall of these mounts will secure the northern areas of E-Ghouta (including #Douma) from Regime artillery attacks. pic.twitter.com/ek7IbpR7xt

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 03:32 PM

There are now enough Russian housing units at Bassel al-Assad International Airport in Latakia for 1,500 Russian soldiers.

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 03:45 PM

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/syria-the-right-salafis-can-make-all-the-difference?utm_content=buffer307ef&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

September 14, 2015

Syria: The Right Salafis Can Make All the Difference

By Mona Alami

Salafi groups in Western media have triggered a debate over the jihadists’ role in the Syria war. The proliferation of terrorist groups like the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) has left the West wary of the Salafis, a narrative used by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to promote himself as a counterweight to the spread of extremism—an expansive label lumping together secular rebels and Salafi factions. The temptation to group all Islamists and rebels under a single label ignores new dynamics—from internal rivalries to efforts to consolidate some groups—that could shape foreign policy responses and, indeed, the Syrian conflict itself.

Assad’s future as president appears increasingly less viable as his territory shrinks to one sixth of pre-2011 Syria. Despite the lack of adequate military and financial support, the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—Syria’s nationalist rebel coalition—remains the best hope at reviving a post-civil war Syria, but represents only one of many players in a scene dominated by radical heavy weights. The limited US $500 million train-and-equip program has had little effect in propping up the FSA. In July, the first US-trained fifty-four graduates of the program crossed into Syria. The Nusra front swiftly kidnapped seven before later releasing them in August.

In contrast to the weakness of the FSA, Islamist and Salafi groups have continued to capture territory and consolidate their strength, with most recently advances made by Jaysh al-Islam in the Ghouta region, close to Damascus, on September 13. The philosophies that shape their motives, however, yield subtle but important differences that make all the difference in a post-war Syria.

ISIS and the Nusra Front, for instance, remain ideologically close to al-Qaeda. “For ISIS and Nusra, jihad is at the center of their ideology, which is by definition transnational. But while ISIS militants are takfiris [the belief that other groups are apostates], Nusra includes elements who are and others who are not,” said Syrian Islamic scholar Sheikh Hasan Dgheim in an interview with the Atlantic Council from Rihaniya, on the Turkey-Syria border. Alternatively, groups such as Jaysh al-Islam (a coalition of Islamist and Salafist units) and Ahrar al-Sham (formerly a coalition that coalesced into a single brigade) are considered mujahideen who use jihad as a rallying cry against the Assad regime. “For us, jihad constitutes a means and not an end, which means it is limited to the context of the Syria war and will end with it,” Lieutenant Hassan Alloush, spokesperson for Jaysh al-Islam, said in an interview with the Atlantic Council.

Fear of all things Salafi has led many experts to conflate Syrian Islamist rebel groups, regardless of their ideological and political evolution. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, now at the Middle East Institute advocated engaging with Ahrar al-Sham, demonstrating in his writing how these misconceptions could lead to lost opportunities to end the conflict. Jihadists’ priorities have slowly diverged in recent years, as illustrated by the different philosophies of factions such Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham—whose goals are above all Syria centric—and radical factions such as ISIS, Nusra, and Jund al-Aqsa—whose primary agenda remains transnational.

The mujahideen have proven their ability to adapt to changes on the local Syrian scene. Ahrar al-Sham initially positioned itself as a faction rejecting Western-style democracy and calling for a Sunni theocracy in Syria after the fall of Assad. Syrian sources privy to the group’s dynamics, however, note that a growing number of its militants have admitted that any post-Assad government should reflect the Syrian people’s will. The group’s leader Hashem al-Sheikh also stated that future governments would emerge from the people.

This evolution has shifted Ahrar al-Sham’s policies in a more moderate direction. After the Jaysh al-Fath coalition—a major Islamist rebel actor comprised of Salafis and Islamist groups including the Nusra front, Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Aqsa, and Ajnad al-Sham among others—secured a significant victory in Idlib in March, Ahrar al-Sham spokesperson Abu Yazed Tafenaz insisted that civilians should administer the city and that rebel groups should handle the city’s security.

Jaysh al-Islam leader Zahran Alloush has similarly reversed previous policies hostile to Western values. In an interview in 2013, Alloush rejected democracy, adding that only an Islamic system would guarantee justice and equality for all. He also voiced hatred toward Shia Muslims and many believe him to have orchestrated the kidnapping of famous Syrian pro-democracy activist Razan Zeitouneh, among others. Yet, Alloush is also a staunch opponent of ISIS and Nusra. Jaysh al-Islam has increasingly worked with civilians to support local administration, the justice system, and policing efforts in Ghouta, according to Istanbul-based Syria expert Sinan Hatahet.

Both Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham appear to have agreed during a recent Islamic panel to adhere to the Syrian constitution of 1950, preserve local institutions, and reject revenge operations, according to Hatahet and Sheikh Dgheim (although this information could not be independently confirmed).

Internal dynamics also play a key part in shaping the behavior of Salafi groups. Recently, Ahrar al-Sham’s foreign relations official Labib al-Nahhas launched a charm offensive on the West, penning editorials in The Washington Post and The Daily Telegraph where he argued that his group represents a moderate Syrian faction. However, shortly after, another branch of the movement published a powerful eulogy of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar that praised the Taliban movement’s activity.

These recent contradictory statements underline a rivalry between two competing currents within Ahrar al-Sham. Nahhas represents the more moderate, media-friendly arm while a man called Mohamed Abu Sadek leads the more conservative trend—one with close ties to the Nusra Front. These relative ideological rivals will soon face off in the group’s next election, the outcome of which would undoubtedly affect Ahrar al-Sham’s future policies.

The Nusra Front has also struggled with three competing internal movements: one comprised of takfiri militants close to ISIS; another conservative movement represented by Jordanian scholar Dr. Sami Uraydi; and a reformist movement led by Syrian born Abu Maryam al-Qahtani. Qahtani has shown the greatest flexibility in working with FSA factions and supported the creation of a Turkish safe zone, which the Nusra leadership had rejected. Some Islamists within Nusra believe that the rivalry could lead to Qahtani’s withdrawal from Nusra. If he can secure the necessary funding, he would either start his own group or join one of the Syrian mujahideen groups.

Understanding local dynamics namely those that might possibly result in a restructuring of influential groups is key to developing efficient foreign policy to Syria. The Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham cases show that Syrian hardliner groups have the capacity to evolve and that key leaders within these factions can redirect a group’s philosophy. By identifying influential figures and providing the appropriate support, they will influence the future of their movements and possibly of Syria at large.

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 05:32 PM

http://dailysignal.com/2015/09/14/its-a-war-a-look-at-how-the-us-and-its-allies-are-fighting-isis/

‘It’s a War’—A Look at How the US and Its Allies Are Fighting ISIS

Nolan Peterson / @nolanwpeterson / September 14, 2015

U.S. ARMED FORCES, Southwest Asia—It’s dinnertime at the DFAC (the military acronym for chow hall) at this remote desert base somewhere in the Persian Gulf region. As they eat, a group of four U.S. Air Force A-10 pilots talk about their war against Daesh, which is what the U.S. military and its coalition partners call ISIS.

Even with their close-cropped hair and tan flight suits there’s nothing outwardly remarkable about the pilots. They might pass for any other Americans in their late 20s and early 30s. They smile a lot as they talk and casually tease each other based on inside jokes accumulated after living and working together 24/7 for about five months. Most have families and children back home. They have the normal complaints for deployed troops, including restrictions on moustache size, which is a major topic of conversation. Dinner at a U.S. military chow hall in 1944 probably wouldn’t be much different from this one.

As the pilots talk they use all the familiar lingo and clichéd expressions common to military aviation. But among the typical lexicon there’s another word they use a lot, which seems to stand out from the rest: “Hunting.”

“I’m doing stuff here that I never thought I’d get to do,” one pilot, an Air Force major said. “We’re hunting. And there are very few sorties when you’re not shooting.”

Many U.S. military pilots and other personnel have chosen not to reveal their identities due to security concerns. Mainly, they’re concerned about domestic ISIS sleeper cells retaliating on their families back in the U.S.—a threat they consider deadly serious.

The pilots say their mindset flying against ISIS is different from the one they had in Afghanistan, a theater in which most of these pilots have also flown in combat. In Afghanistan, they say, they had a defensive mindset; the priority was to defend U.S. troops on the ground with close air support. In the war on Daesh over Iraq and Syria, however, they describe their mindset as offensive. In addition to close air support and bombing missions, they also fly air interdiction missions in which they patrol for targets of opportunity—essentially hunting for ISIS militants to kill. And they kill a lot. Sometimes one pilot will kill dozens of ISIS fighters in one sortie.

Each pilot flies every one to three days, racking up about 100 combat hours a month. Due to the large airspace they patrol, the sorties are long, sometimes lasting about eight hours. The pilots prepare their bodies to endure the physical demands of long missions in a single-seat attack aircraft with massages and special workout programs.

“We’re like professional athletes at the end of a season,” a pilot said. “We’re fighting a legit war here, and it’s active.”

Stalemate

Overall, Operation Inherent Resolve (the U.S.-led combined joint task force in Iraq and Syria) is killing about 1,000 ISIS fighters a month. The death toll roughly matches the number of new recruits ISIS is able to field each month, effectively capping its manpower strength at about 30,000 to 40,000 fighters.

“This is a war, just based on the magnitude of the people we’re killing.” said Col. Michael Koscheski, commander of the 332nd Air Expeditionary Wing (the iconic “Red Tails” from World War II in which the Tuskegee Airmen flew) in an interview from an undisclosed deployed location.

“We’re killing a lot of them, I mean a lot,” Koscheski added. “The body count is a factor. It’s not the only factor, but it’s a factor. It will be interesting to see if Daesh can maintain its current attrition rate.”

Although Operation Inherent Resolve comprises more than 60 countries, only 12 are actively conducting airstrikes. According to Department of Defense data released Sept. 8, the coalition has conducted 6,700 airstrikes and flown an estimated 53,278 total sorties.

U.S. and coalition commanders explain their overall objective in Operation Inherent Resolve as twofold—to both destroy ISIS and to train and equip the Iraqi Security Forces, Kurdish Peshmerga and Free Syrian Army to take back territory under ISIS control and to eventually shoulder the fight on their own.

“Success is the implosion of Daesh from within,” Koscheski said. “Over time it will be like a cancer, it will eat itself from the inside out.”

“But the Iraqis have to do this for themselves,” he said. “That’s the end goal. Without Iraqi ground troops to take back ground, the effectiveness of airpower is limited.”

Continued.........

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 05:33 PM

Rebels in Mare', #Aleppo discovered an ISIS VBIED that tried to enter the city, the driver was also apprehended. pic.twitter.com/krrhUE9dhn

Hebrew text on #Hezbollah's machine guns in #Qalamoun http://mme.cm/E69U00 by @RanyaRadwan

The great #Putin Ever vigilant. Keeping us safe from the evil west! pic.twitter.com/hMKa3k9BKN

Russia shipping tanks into Syria, in ‘first clear sign of offensive weapons’

Pentagon refer 2 'steady flow' of kit & people 2 Syrian airbase; believe #Russia establishing forward air operating base there. 2 what end?

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 05:51 PM

Syria : Many new defensive/comms positions recently built between Ghab Plain and #Latakia This one overlooking M4 pic.twitter.com/l3zvL4kbU6

Syria|n Il-76T YK-ATB departed from #Damascus going to #Teheran. pic.twitter.com/iQ5VsEIFBB

Def officials estimate:by end of Sept #Russians ready to operate out their base in Syria http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-tanks-arrive-in-syria/ … pic.twitter.com/CP1nhpVPzT

SYRIA: At least 7 Russian Condor transport planes have been sent through Iranian and Iraqi airspace - @uygaraktas
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/world/middleeast/russian-flights-over-iraq-and-iran-escalate-tension-with-us.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1 …

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 06:53 PM

Humor---

Russian Trolls last week - "It's humanitarian aid"
Russian Trolls this week - "Haha. It's tanks"

U.S. intelligence publishes satellite imagery of Russian base in Syria
http://www.unian.info/world/1123207-us-intelligence-publishes-satellite-imagery-of-russian-base-in-syria.html … pic.twitter.com/fYTSwYr1Ts

Syria : Another recent #SAA #NDF marathon. This time from the South Ghab Plain http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.429222&lon=36.353374&z=15&m=b … pic.twitter.com/ggobpuqT44

A #Syria Air Airbus just made a strange "loop" over #Russia`s #Latakia Air base http://www.flightradar24.com/SYR390/76c1cfa pic.twitter.com/euK21H5c1I

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 07:36 PM

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/09/14/russia-may-concede-on-syria-for-free-hand-in-ukraine-analysts/

Russia may concede on Syria for free hand in Ukraine — analysts

First Deputy Speaker of Verkhovna Rada Andriy Parubiy reports that Russia is building two military bases in the Belgorod Oblast and significantly expanding its military presence on the border with Ukraine in preparation for further aggression. The former Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council discussed these developments on the Inter TV channel, September 13

According to Parubiy, a new military base is being build near the town of Valuyki in the Belgorod region, 25 km from the Ukrainian border, and an old Soviet base in Boguchar is being restored.

“Aside from Valuyki, a base is being prepared –actually restored — in Boguchar, Belgorod Region, right next to the Ukrainian border. An entire army… is being transferred there from Nizhny Novgorod,” he said.

Parubiy said Russia’s actions are designed to frighten and pressure the Ukrainian government while preparing the groundwork for a possible full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He pointed out that the most combat-ready units of the Russian army have already been transferred to the Ukrainian border.

Furthermore, according to Parubiy, Russia intends to carry out extremely large military exercises, involving about 100,000 soldiers, in the Central district in late September-early October.

Paribiy predicted that relative calm would prevail in the ATO zone until the end of September, before Putin’s trip to New York on September 28-29 for the UN General Assembly meeting. He also discounted any notion that Russia is expanding its military presence near the Ukrainian border only to have a bargaining chip with the West. Putin will be willing to bargain with the West, he believes, but it will be only to offer some concessions on Syria in exchange for a free hand in Ukraine.

“I can confidently say that on September 28-29 in New York Putin will be bargaining with the West over Syria. He will offer some concessions if they close their eyes on what is happening in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea,” he said

As previously reported, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has determined that there are 50,500 Russian troops and militants in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and that some 200 Russian military training camps for Russian soldiers and militants have been deployed to Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The pessimistic view of Russia’s intentions is seconded by Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer , who believes the huge Russian tank army that Putin has been supporting for more than two years indicates that Russia is preparing for war in Ukraine.

“Preparations for war are taking place on the border in Ukraine. Very large military forces have been concentrated there. Moreover they have been supported for more than two years. In Donbas alone there is an entire tank army consisting of Russian troops and local militants and two companies. The number of Russian mercenaries is reaching 40,000 and there are about 60 tank units. And of course this is serious and for the long-term, since the crisis in Ukraine has not been resolved and it is not clear if it will be resolved at all,” he said.

Felgenhauer also thinks any assumptions that Russia will now concentrate on Syria are mistaken since Ukraine is many times more important than Syria for the Russian Federation.

OUTLAW 09

09-14-2015, 07:52 PM

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/09/14/russia-may-concede-on-syria-for-free-hand-in-ukraine-analysts/

Russia may concede on Syria for free hand in Ukraine — analysts

RUS would be able to support two theatres for aprox. 6 months with max. 3 brigades each involved. https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/643509382026784768 …

CrowBat

09-14-2015, 08:17 PM

Azor

09-15-2015, 12:58 AM

I gather that the Russian SSBN deployed off Syria is their only active Typhoon-class. This is telling, as: (1) the boat has little practical purpose other than sabre-rattling as it has no conventional land-attack capability; and (2) the boat will be retired relatively soon. I suppose the Russians don't want to expose their Yasen or Borei boats to American surveillance in the Mediterranean...

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 04:36 AM

So... a new tarmac, one short taxiway, and two parking spots for helicopters in Lattakia...

...few photos of Syrian MiG-29s (flying CAS already since October 2013, so absolutely nothing new there), one faked photo of a Su-27 operated by Ruskiy Vityazy... and few Russian-made UAVs (replacing Iranian-made examples)...

...and everybody is in panic over 'Russian military intervention in Syria'...?

...although nobody knows why or even if there is such an intervention...?

...sigh...

How good there was no internet back at the times of the good ol' Cold War... :rolleyes:

It is not the above that is uninteresting and means nothing it is the seven T90s, and the elements of three brigades of elite units marines, airborne and Spetsnaz that are Ukraine veterans that is the interesting point--there was rumors of the M31s being sent but initially it was written off as propaganda.

That also does not include their latest ATM that has been seen in large numbers AND it does not include the reported hundreds of IRGC that are being flow in from Iran almost daily now--that is what is interesting.

It is interesting that this is the largest Russian overseas engagement since even the Soviet Cold War days--that is a given.

CrowBat

09-15-2015, 06:47 AM

It is not the above that is uninteresting and means nothing it is the seven T90s, and the elements of three brigades of elite units marines, airborne and Spetsnaz that are Ukraine veterans that is the interesting point--there was rumors of the M31s being sent but initially it was written off as propaganda.Rumours, rumours and more rumours.

There is no indication for something like 'massive presence of Russian troops' in Syria. Not even for something like 'significant shipment of armament for Assad regime'.

All that can be seen are some reinforcements for four (in digits: 4) troops usually present at the depot in Tartous, scant APCs, ARVs and UAVs, and a slight expansion of the Bassil Assad IAP.

Especially the latter is long overdue alone because remaining air bases under regime control are already since long over-stuffed with all the aircraft and helicopters evacuated from air bases besieged or overrun by insurgents and/or Daesh (as should be clear to anybody watching photos of Hamah AB, just for example).

Compared to undergoing Saudi-led invasion of Yemen (where there is meanwhile an entire mechanized brigade of the Emirati Army, including about 30 AMX-56 LeClerc MBTs, BMP-3s and G-6 SPA; about a dozen of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and UH-60s, at least one each of PAC-2 and SA-22 SAM-sites), that's peanuts.

Indeed, it's peanuts even in comparison to 'aid' provided by 'trusted allies' of Qatar and Turkey to quasi-Islamists of the Libyan Dawn in Libya (which included spares and armament for stored Mirage F.1 fighter-bombers, funding for overhauls of MiG-23 and - Mach-3-capable - MiG-25s etc, not to talk about all sorts of other armament, plus training and advice).

That also does not include their latest ATM that has been seen in large numbers AND it does not include the reported hundreds of IRGC that are being flow in from Iran almost daily now--that is what is interesting.
The IRGC has deployed the personnel of two of its brigades (one armoured and one mechanized) already back in October 2013. Plus several 'brigades' of combatants recruited in Iraq, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. Nobody was upset about this then, so why now - especially since in April-May this year all the IRGC-QF troops have been withdrawn into Damascus area...?

It is interesting that this is the largest Russian overseas engagement since even the Soviet Cold War days--that is a given.'Largest Russian overseas engagement'...?

It certainly looks like that - for all those who forgot the South Ossetia War of 2008, or prefer to ignore Russian de-facto invasion of eastern Ukraine, underway since 2014.

Of course, neither South Ossetia nor Ukraine are exactly 'overseas' but then: well, it's not as if Russia (i.e. Soviet Union) would have as 'rich history' of military interventions abroad as certain other nations around...

Overall, unless Russian transport aircraft start landing at Bassil Assad IAP at least at a tempo of '1 per hour' (like during their air-bridge to Ethiopia, back in November 1977) - and that's extremely unlikely to happen - there is not the least reason to get upset over this affair.

davidbfpo

09-15-2015, 08:51 AM

Crowbat,

Thank you for providing the last post, placing the latest Russian deployments to Syria in context and with a comparison to their Ethiopian air bridge long ago (the Ogaden War IIRC).

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 10:31 AM

Syria Ambassador to #Russia "No Russian troops in Syria. They're on holiday shopping for discount tanks in Damascus" pic.twitter.com/41tNnWNvwC

Russia'n trolls switch gears from #Ukraine to #Syria
pic.twitter.com/lnc8FDTaYB

Putin doubles down on support for Syria's armed forces at CSTO summit. Urges Assad to negotiate with "reasonable" opposition

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 12:01 PM

What is interesting about this particulare weaponized information “leak” is that at first glance it looks like Putin was pushing a valid offer and ot was the mean West that was far sighted and did not engage—BUT then the second comment reflect social media who had done battle with Russian propaganda for over a year now and can fully read between the Russian lines.

West 'ignored Russian offer to have Syria's Assad step aside' says Ahtisaari to @julianborger http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside … fascinating if true

Just to be clear: Russians offer was 4 Assad 2 "lead transition" (God knows 4how long) & leave honorably on his term. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld …

So in reality it really never was a true offer-was just designed as Russian CYA so Russia could stand back and say --we are the adults here not the West........BUT WAIT was not this offer actually all about regime change as even defined in Russian propaganda.

THEN today from the Russian UK Ambassador--one of their leading info warriors---he flips the 2012 article--typical Russian Orwellian doublespeak.

Alexander Yakovenko Verified account 
‏@Amb_Yakovenko Rumours of Rus-US-Saudi “secret talks on ousting Assad” groundless. Moscow is not in regime change business.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 12:02 PM

Al Jazeera English ✔ @AJEnglish
" Twelve million Syrians have been forced from their homes, that's more than half of Syria's population"

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 12:16 PM

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/14/this-satellite-image-leaves-no-doubt-that-russia-is-throwing-troops-and-aircraft-into-syria-latakia-airport-construction/?utm_content=buffer8bd7f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This Satellite Image Leaves No Doubt That Russia Is Throwing Troops and Aircraft Into Syria
It also shows just how screwed America’s Syria policy is

Over the past year, evidence has steadily emerged of a growing Russian military presence in Syria. As Bashar al-Assad’s armies have failed him in the field, he has increasingly relied on outside help. Initially, that help came from Hezbollah and Iran, but now it appears to be Moscow’s turn. And Washington may finally be waking up to what looks like a substantial Russian intervention in Syria.

New satellite images, obtained by Foreign Policy, of construction at an air base near Latakia leave little doubt that U.S. policy toward ending the conflict in Syria, such as it is, is now in total disarray. As they say, seeing is believing.

Admittedly, there has long been a Russian military presence in Syria. When opposition forces overran a Syrian listening post in October last year, the images revealed that it was staffed by the Russian military. More recently, analysts have noted pictures and videos that seem to confirm the presence of Russian combat forces fighting in Syria. Russian military vehicles have been sighted, while Russian soldiers have posted images and comments on Russian social media sites like VKontakte and the California-based LiveJournal, detailing their service in the war-torn country. (Some of the best open-source analysis has been on Bellingcat’s website.)

It is very strange world we live in, one marked both by the “little green men” of Russia’s “hybrid” warfare who Moscow can disavow and by data ubiquity that allows analysts to mock those disavowals.

Still, there has always been a question about how extensive Russia’s support for the Syrian regime has been the past four years. Are those even Russians inside the Moscow-supplied combat vehicles? Open-source analysts have been quite enterprising in suggesting the answer is yes, hearing snippets of Russian in between bursts from the vehicle’s gun. But the Russians claim any Slavic accents are merely those of a very small number of trainers or advisors. Nothing to see here; please move along.

That is now very hard to believe. On Sept. 4, the New York Times published an article suggesting that Russia had shipped prefabricated housing and a transportable air traffic control station to an airfield near Latakia. It was a great scoop, but I was pretty baffled that the New York Times didn’t bother to purchase a satellite image of the facility. Had they done so, they would have realized that they buried the lede.

The satellite image shows far more than prefabricated housing and an air traffic control station. It shows extensive construction of what appears to be a military canton at Bassel al-Assad International Airport (named for Bashar’s elder brother, who died in a car accident in 1994). This canton appears designed to support Russian combat air operations from the base and may serve as a logistical hub for Russian combat forces.

In recent days, using aircraft tracking sites, a number of analysts have begun to document the near-daily arrival of Russian transport planes to the base. The Russians are also sending ships to Syria, though the ships often declare for a nearby non-Syrian port, like Port Said in Egypt, and then take a wrong turn at Albuquerque, so to speak.

Rogin reports that U.S. officials believe Russia will base combat aircraft at the site. That is easy to confirm from the satellite image. In recent weeks, construction crews have completed a taxiway that connects the runway to the construction area. That means aircraft shelters for Russian aircraft.

The scale of the construction goes even further. A large area of ground has been cleared in many different parts of the air base. There are pallets and crates everywhere. Trucks are visible driving into the site. (We’ve annotated the image, but I highly recommend following @finriswolf on Twitter.) The image drives home the implication of all those flights and shipments heading to Syria: Russia is substantially expanding its involvement.

There is now little hope of establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, unless Washington wants to be in the business of shooting down Russian aircraft. From a broader perspective, U.S. efforts to arm the opposition to Assad mean fighting a proxy war with Moscow, either by trying to down the Russian planes or helping Syrian opposition forces kill Russian combat troops on the ground. That seems a much tougher task than fighting a proxy war with Iran and Hezbollah.

But beyond this narrow question of whether the United States wants to directly support combat operations against Russian forces in Syria, Moscow’s apparent commitment to Damascus raises fundamental questions about what U.S. strategy, if any, can succeed. I have long been opposed to collaborating with Assad. I don’t believe that he is committed to fighting the Islamic State; he only seems interested in attacking those opposition forces that threaten him directly. (In fact, by writing off parts of Syria to the Islamic State, he creates a second front for his opponents.) Nor do I believe he will ever command enough support to reestablish government control in Syria. If there is any hope of uniting Syrians, Assad must leave.

What Russia has done, however, is make it clear that it will not let Assad fall. He can’t win, but Russia won’t let him lose. That dooms Syria to what looks like endless war, as Assad fights to the last man. There are those who see Syria as a quagmire for Putin, a kind of matched pair to our own folly in Iraq; just as Washington collectively saw Afghanistan as payback for Vietnam. I am not so sanguine.

While Charlie Wilson’s war helped popularize the idea of bleeding Moscow, I don’t think that can be the basis of U.S. policy either. The moral cost is far too high. Aylan Kurdi, the 3-year-old boy whose corpse washed up on a Turkish beach, was fleeing Syria’s civil war, as are hundreds of thousands of the refugees now in Europe. More than half of Syria’s 17 million people have been displaced. Bleeding Moscow means bleeding these people. It may sound strategic in a Pentagon war room, but not when children’s bodies wash up on shore.

Columns are supposed to have a simple solution. An op-ed should have five paragraphs wrapped up in a neat little bow that explains how to fix the problem outlined in the first paragraph. One of my favorite professors (and FP colleague), Kori Schake, used to liken it to the answer in a beauty pageant. She was right, but for the life of me I can’t come up with one. It seems that, sometimes, the world’s pain can’t be solved in a few hundred words of sage advice.

So this column does not have a neat and tidy ending. And that is because I am not sure that it is now possible to save Syria. There is no path to resurrect a state that is failing, not so long as Putin has decided to do whatever it takes to preserve Assad’s awful regime and condemn Syria to endless conflict. We can, of course, make it difficult for Russia to resupply its forces in Syria. Already, some NATO allies, like Bulgaria and Turkey, have denied Russian aircraft over-flight rights. Iraq, too, appears to have turned back at least one aircraft.

And there is surely more we can do to shelter the millions of refugees now fleeing the conflict. Having helped create this mess with the invasion of Iraq and subsequent failure to stop the bloodshed in Syria, the United States and its European allies have an obligation to assist these people. This is especially true of those countries that were the loudest supporters of the invasion of Iraq. Coalition of the Still Willing, right? That includes you, Hungary.

But these measures won’t replace Bashar al-Assad with a figure who could rally moderate Syrians to restore a stable government, let alone stop the bloodshed. At best, they are only an expression of empathy and contrition. Putin has to be convinced to tell Assad it is time to go. Until then, and as long as Moscow is flooding Syria with military assistance, the country’s misery will continue.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 12:28 PM

davidbfpo

09-15-2015, 01:59 PM

The latest map from ISW, also in PDF:http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/posture-syrian-regime-and-allies-september-14-2015

Today cut & paste does not work.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 02:13 PM

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/faysal-itani/in-zabadani-signs-of-a-ne_b_8097416.html

In Zabadani, Signs of a New and Worrying Iranian Strategy in Syria

09/13/2015 8:51 pm EDT

Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat, is a co-author.

Amid promises from Iran of a peace plan for Syria, lets get one thing straight: The Islamic Republic is not negotiating over its key interests in Syria, but advancing them more directly, and possibly with less concern for Bashar al-Assad's fate. Furthermore, Assad's woes are not pressuring Iran to negotiate, but embedding it more deeply in Syria. Rather than bring peace, this will probably worsen the war's sectarian character, strengthen jihadist groups, and make a lasting settlement less likely than ever.

All this is on full display in the city of Zabadani.

Zabadani lies some 17 miles northwest of Damascus, astride a key Hezbollah supply line and near core Hezbollah territory in Lebanon. This makes the city critical for both the militia and Iran. In early July, Hezbollah and regime forces began an offensive to take Zabadani, besieging rebel forces there. Syrian rebels responded by encircling thousands of pro-regime and Hezbollah forces in Fu'a and Kefraya, northern Syria, using this as leverage to force a ceasefire in Zabadani. Sporadic fighting continues and the city's fate remains unclear. What is clear, however, is that Iran's handling of the Zabadani crisis indicates a shift in its Syria strategy, in which it either negotiates on behalf of or ignores Assad and his inner circle, securing its interests directly rather than by proxy.

Iran's negotiating terms are bad news for Syria. It reportedly offered to end the assault on Zabadani on two conditions: that its fighters be allowed to evacuate Fu'a and Kefraya, and that Zabadani's largely Sunni population leave the city. This would be the first deliberate, large-scale sectarian population transfer in the Syrian war. It is not clear whether that would benefit the regime, but displacing a hostile Sunni population from critical territory would clearly benefit Hezbollah and Iran, both Shia powers. That Iran is negotiating Syria's new sectarian geography indicates its war strategy has become less about reconquering insurgent territory, and more about shaping a new Syria to secure its interests.

Understanding Iran's approach requires distinguishing between Iranian and Syrian regime interests. Iran's efforts in Syria were never about saving Assad as such, but securing its own strategic position in the Levant. This means protecting Hezbollah supply lines in areas like Zabadani and preventing a hostile regime from emerging in Syria. Iran is not opposed to negotiation, but a lasting negotiated settlement to the war would be based roughly on the principles of the Geneva 2 agreement: consensus-based political transition. Whatever diplomatic initiatives it announces, the bitter truth is that as long as Iran believes it has other options, it cannot accept this outcome because it would endanger Hezbollah. A post-war order that enjoys the support of most of the insurgency and its domestic and foreign backers will not be as kind toward this Iranian proxy as Assad was.

The Iranian aspiration to transfer Zabadani's population and alter Syria's sectarian geography indicates it has little interest in serious negotiations at the moment. Indeed, it sets a terrible precedent for ethnic cleansing as a war strategy in a multi-sectarian country, in which the displacement of Sunnis (or other sects for that matter) would boost the sectarian narrative and recruitment prospects of jihadist groups like the Islamic State. An Iranian-led rather than Iranian-backed war on the insurgency would lead to an even more toxic and broken Syria.

This new dynamic threatens the US interests of defeating jihadist groups and facilitating an end to the war. As we argue in a new study for the Atlantic Council, however, local crises also present opportunities to protect US interests and preempt worst-case scenarios, including the ethnic cleansing of Zabadani and the catastrophes that would follow. Zabadani shows that Iran has a bold and coherent new strategy, while regional rivals active in Syria, including Turkey and the Gulf states, lack an effective answer. However the United States chooses to tackle this -- training and equipping new forces; working more closely with existing ones to push back on Iran's new sectarian strategy; directly negotiating in crises such as Zabadani; or helping cobble together a more effective regional coalition to increase negotiating leverage against Iran -- its policy should reflect Syria's new local realities, not a misreading of Iranian intentions.

Iran's diplomatic push on Syria is not about making serious compromises to end the Syrian war. It merely shows that Iran is more directly controlling its Syrian interests, reshaping its strategies and priorities accordingly. This may or may not involve sacrificing Assad, but if it does lead to regime change, it will look nothing like a Geneva 2-type compromise, and would certainly not involve meaningful Iranian sacrifices over its strategic position in Syria. More likely, this approach simply reflects Iran's calculation that the regime has become a burden -- an obstacle rather than a means to securing its core interests. As Zabadani makes clear, if Iran's new strategy goes unopposed, Syria will go from very bad to far worse.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 02:15 PM

You don't need a FOB to "train" SAA. Russian Moves in Syria Widen Role in Mideast

http://nyti.ms/1KmLZEy

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 02:26 PM

Rumours, rumours and more rumours.

There is no indication for something like 'massive presence of Russian troops' in Syria. Not even for something like 'significant shipment of armament for Assad regime'.

All that can be seen are some reinforcements for four (in digits: 4) troops usually present at the depot in Tartous, scant APCs, ARVs and UAVs, and a slight expansion of the Bassil Assad IAP.

Especially the latter is long overdue alone because remaining air bases under regime control are already since long over-stuffed with all the aircraft and helicopters evacuated from air bases besieged or overrun by insurgents and/or Daesh (as should be clear to anybody watching photos of Hamah AB, just for example).

Compared to undergoing Saudi-led invasion of Yemen (where there is meanwhile an entire mechanized brigade of the Emirati Army, including about 30 AMX-56 LeClerc MBTs, BMP-3s and G-6 SPA; about a dozen of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and UH-60s, at least one each of PAC-2 and SA-22 SAM-sites), that's peanuts.

Indeed, it's peanuts even in comparison to 'aid' provided by 'trusted allies' of Qatar and Turkey to quasi-Islamists of the Libyan Dawn in Libya (which included spares and armament for stored Mirage F.1 fighter-bombers, funding for overhauls of MiG-23 and - Mach-3-capable - MiG-25s etc, not to talk about all sorts of other armament, plus training and advice).

The IRGC has deployed the personnel of two of its brigades (one armoured and one mechanized) already back in October 2013. Plus several 'brigades' of combatants recruited in Iraq, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. Nobody was upset about this then, so why now - especially since in April-May this year all the IRGC-QF troops have been withdrawn into Damascus area...?

'Largest Russian overseas engagement'...?

It certainly looks like that - for all those who forgot the South Ossetia War of 2008, or prefer to ignore Russian de-facto invasion of eastern Ukraine, underway since 2014.

Of course, neither South Ossetia nor Ukraine are exactly 'overseas' but then: well, it's not as if Russia (i.e. Soviet Union) would have as 'rich history' of military interventions abroad as certain other nations around...

Overall, unless Russian transport aircraft start landing at Bassil Assad IAP at least at a tempo of '1 per hour' (like during their air-bridge to Ethiopia, back in November 1977) - and that's extremely unlikely to happen - there is not the least reason to get upset over this affair.

BUT the key when dealing with and analyzing Russian military moves is not the numbers or their intentions but the weaponry that is being sent.

The key question I had immediately is why the T90 which is their most modern MBT and why when it is strictly Russian is it in the ME when only two have been seen at all in the Ukraine--the why might have been answered by a Finnish analyst.

THEN the airlift is now at two per AN-124s a day with Iranian airlift in between so 3-4 a day. Sea lift transport is now at five and increasing.

The question is not the numbers of Russian troops BUT the intent to create a far larger footprint using Iranians troops and Russian airpower with elite ground units for attacks to stem the anti Assad advances.

Sorry in Finnish----

Finnish article explains just why the T90 might have been sent to Syria—can it defeat the TOW????

Making the case for T-90s in Syria: Shtora-1 vs. TOW. @APulkki's article in Finnish. https://twitter.com/APulkki/status/643780556359135232 …

The TOW hunter killer teams in large numbers have tipped the fighting and the Russians fully understand that thus the T90 in country instead of the T72 variants. The TOW has become the Stinger of the ME.

AND the Syrian Express just keeps on rolling or in this case swimming---
NF's Polish built ropucha class LST Alexander Otrakovski 031 transits southbound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria pic.twitter.com/wgOvzvYc0c

Fifth freighter in less than one week----and they carry hundreds of tons of equipment per ship as well as troops.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 05:18 PM

Video Intense gun fire in east #Saudi capital #Riyadh which is still going on..

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 05:32 PM

Syria #Damascus #Assad- forces using a huge slingshot to shoot stones into Baseema village in Barada valley pic.twitter.com/LDFEsyu6tw

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 05:54 PM

Rumours, rumours and more rumours.

There is no indication for something like 'massive presence of Russian troops' in Syria. Not even for something like 'significant shipment of armament for Assad regime'.

All that can be seen are some reinforcements for four (in digits: 4) troops usually present at the depot in Tartous, scant APCs, ARVs and UAVs, and a slight expansion of the Bassil Assad IAP.

Especially the latter is long overdue alone because remaining air bases under regime control are already since long over-stuffed with all the aircraft and helicopters evacuated from air bases besieged or overrun by insurgents and/or Daesh (as should be clear to anybody watching photos of Hamah AB, just for example).

Compared to undergoing Saudi-led invasion of Yemen (where there is meanwhile an entire mechanized brigade of the Emirati Army, including about 30 AMX-56 LeClerc MBTs, BMP-3s and G-6 SPA; about a dozen of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and UH-60s, at least one each of PAC-2 and SA-22 SAM-sites), that's peanuts.

Indeed, it's peanuts even in comparison to 'aid' provided by 'trusted allies' of Qatar and Turkey to quasi-Islamists of the Libyan Dawn in Libya (which included spares and armament for stored Mirage F.1 fighter-bombers, funding for overhauls of MiG-23 and - Mach-3-capable - MiG-25s etc, not to talk about all sorts of other armament, plus training and advice).

The IRGC has deployed the personnel of two of its brigades (one armoured and one mechanized) already back in October 2013. Plus several 'brigades' of combatants recruited in Iraq, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. Nobody was upset about this then, so why now - especially since in April-May this year all the IRGC-QF troops have been withdrawn into Damascus area...?

'Largest Russian overseas engagement'...?

It certainly looks like that - for all those who forgot the South Ossetia War of 2008, or prefer to ignore Russian de-facto invasion of eastern Ukraine, underway since 2014.

Of course, neither South Ossetia nor Ukraine are exactly 'overseas' but then: well, it's not as if Russia (i.e. Soviet Union) would have as 'rich history' of military interventions abroad as certain other nations around...

Overall, unless Russian transport aircraft start landing at Bassil Assad IAP at least at a tempo of '1 per hour' (like during their air-bridge to Ethiopia, back in November 1977) - and that's extremely unlikely to happen - there is not the least reason to get upset over this affair.

This is why I say one has to observe exactly what weapon systems and equipment are going into Syria----These two are prevelant in the Ukraine and are strictly Russian issued.

'Pantsir-S1' And 'Ural-43206' in Ukraine--BOTH have now been reported by social media as being in Syria.

NOW what is interesting is that the Pantsir-S1 is the most modern Russian AD system next to the S300s and S400s.

WHY does Russia need the Pantsir when the IS does not even have a flying carpet to speak of anywhere in the ME?

BUT with the Pantsir the Russians can actually establish with ease air space denial even over a large part of Isreal.

So one does not need a large amount of ground troops if one wants to intimadate the US in the air space over Syria.

BUT if in say support to Iranian ground troops and elite Russian units a Pantsir S1 is a perfect match.

Even NATO is now highly concerned about the Russian AD Systems.

We're going to have to develop TTPs [tactics, techniques & procedures] to address" Russia's "long-range SAM array" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...-general-warns …

Gen. Gorenc warned last year: "1/3 of Poland is under Russian IADS [integrated air defense system] coverage" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...-general-warns …

Russia's "modern long-range SAM systems...are being layered in a way that makes access [in Europe]...more difficult" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...-general-warns …

Alarming" that Russia can create "anti-access/area denied [zones] that are very well defended" by SAM batteries http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...-general-warns …

Gen. Gorenc on #Russia air power: Invested in "a very large modernization" & have improved both "quality & quantity" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...-general-warns …

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:02 PM

Again this thing with Russian weapons--part and parcel of Russian non linear warfare which many claim Russia is not conducting in Syria...

Remember Russian non linear warfare has eight phases--review them as it is interesting that many western pundits are saying it is not non linear warfare.

Gotta love putting T-90s into play in Syria. Never did that in Donbas: http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-escalation-in-syria-concerns-u-s-officials-1442259593 …

The one and or two caught by social media were actually invovled in combat to gain experince with the weapon system then they were pulled back into Russia and never seen since the first reportings.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:04 PM

BreakingNews
The crash of an #Assad air force helicopter in #Aleppo is confirmed yesterday night.
Possibly downed by a missile (unconf.).

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:06 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:07 PM

"The Shady Family Behind America’s Iran Lobby"

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/15/the-shady-family-behind-america-s-iran-lobby.html?via=ios …

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:12 PM

Does anyone outside of Putin actually believe this?????

Russian arms to Syria prevent 'even bigger' refugee flow to Europe, says Putin http://tgr.ph/1ieJ45Y pic.twitter.com/sXoQEjOJWZ

So the savior of the world from IS is now the protector of refugees?????

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:21 PM

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565914-russia-military-reportedly-deploying-to-hamaNOW

Published: 15/09/2015 03:25 PM

Russia military reportedly deploying to Hama
A large convoy arrived in the central Syrian city Monday from Latakia.

BEIRUT – Russian personnel accompanied by a convoy of equipment have reportedly deployed to Hama in the latest sign of Moscow’s growing military buildup in Syria.

On Monday, opposition a large convoy arrived in the central Syrian city from Latakia, where the US says recent Russian moves indicate they are planning to set up “a forward air operating base.”

A Syrian newspaper close to the regime reported the convoy had transported Russian food and relief aid, while anti-Damascus outlets said Russian military officers and equipment had been sent into Hama.

An activist from Hama said he had received “information about the arrival of a delegation consisting of Russian officers and experts accompanied by the [Syrian] Defense Minister Fahd Jassem al-Freij [Monday] at Hama’s Al-Nawair Hotel.”

Suhaib al-Rahmoun told pro-opposition outlet Al-Souria Net that “over ten buses accompanied by several trucks loaded with equipment thought to belong to the Russian delegation reached the hotel.”

“The area around the hotel has seen a heavy security presence by regime forces, which have cordoned off the Real Estate Interests Building and closed the street leading to the hotel.”

In turn, Al-Souria Net’s correspondent in Hama said that regime forces had closed off all roads leading to the city’s central Al-Aasi Square.

The correspondent added that the city had seen a heavy deployment by security forces and an increase in the number of impromptu checkpoints, as well as car and pedestrian searches, and ID checks.

Another media activist from the city said that some areas near the hotel had been reopened late on Tuesday morning.

“Today after 10:00 am, pedestrians were allowed access to the roads near the hotel where the Russian delegation is [staying],” the activist who identified himself as “Saifeddin” told the outlet.

“The street leading to the hotel is [still] completely closed.”

“Several military vehicles can be seen and anti-terrorism forces, military police and the so-called ‘Desert Hawks’ militias are deployed in the area.”

Meanwhile, All4Syria reported that 15 buses packed with armed Russians had been spotted entering the Equestrian Club in southeastern Hama.

“The Equestrian Club has become a barracks for Russian nationals,” an activist told the pro-rebel outlet.

The pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper also reported on the convoy, but insisted it had transported a consignment of the humanitarian aid that Russia claimed it flew into Latakia on Saturday.

Hama Governor Ghassan Khalaf told the daily that 15 tons of aid had been trucked into Hama, including “various foodstuffs as well as kitchen utensils and equipment.”

Russia in recent weeks has been conducting a major military buildup in Syria amid a flurry of reports that Moscow is preparing to set up an airbase in the Latakia province to conduct airstrikes on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

AFP last Wednesday reported that Russia’s military activities have centered on the Bassel al-Assad International Airport south of the coastal city of Latakia.

The next day, Israel’s defense minister told reporters that Russian troops and technical advisors have been arriving in the country “for operating planes and combat helicopters.”

US Secretary of State John Kerry had earlier called his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to express his concern over the reports, while NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said a Russian buildup “will not contribute to solving the conflict.”

Moscow has downplayed the reports, with Lavrov saying Thursday that Russia’s arms shipments were merely the fulfillment of contracts with the Syrian government while its military trainers had been in the country for “many years.”

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:30 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 06:58 PM

There are two inherently critical cornerstones to Russian non linear warfare---weaponization of information and cyber warfare -this propaganda article was used to set the stage for Russian entry into Syria and we are not seeing Russian non linear warfare now in Syria????

http://www.rferl.org/content/why-russia-propaganda-links-chechens-is-latakia/27248094.html

Why Russian Propaganda Links Chechen Militants, IS, And Assad's Coastal Stronghold

By Joanna Paraszczuk

September 14, 2015

Over the weekend, reports emerged that Russian forces are expanding a military airport in Syria's coastal province of Latakia.

This comes amid more reports of a Russian military buildup near Latakia.

Two weeks before these reports broke, Life News, a tabloid-style Russian website with links to the security services, carried a story that appears to set the scene for these developments, warning of the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS) group in Latakia.

And in an emotional appeal to its Russian readers, it frames the "war on terror" in Latakia as an extension of Russia's own struggle against Islamic militancy in the North Caucasus.

Life News claimed IS has dispatched "natives of [Russia's North] Caucasus republics" to Latakia. "Among them are militants who took part in actions against the Russian Army during the Chechen campaigns, and then fled from Russia," it said. "Their skills aid in the development and implementation of operations in the Latakia heights."

Half-Truths

The Life News report is based on elements of truth that have been misinterpreted -- or twisted -- to tell a particular narrative.

It is true that there are several groups of Chechen militants based in the forests of Latakia (though Life News only refers to one). And three of those groups have leaders and fighters who are known to have fought against Russian forces as part of the Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus.

Indeed, North Caucasus militants in Syria like to say that Latakia is "Syria's Caucasus." They joke that fighters feel at home there, because they can hide out in the forests and mountains.

The catch is that none of the Latakia Chechen groups is connected with IS.

The three main Chechen-led groups in the Latakia mountains are Ajnad al-Kavkaz (Soldiers of the Caucasus), Junud al-Sham (Soldiers of Syria), and a much smaller group, Tarkhan's Jamaat.

Ajnad al-Kavkaz is led by Abdul-Hakim al-Shishani (Hamzat Azhiyev), who is believed to be from Prigorodnoye, a town southeast of the Chechen capital, Grozny.

Azhiyev came to Syria via Turkey after losing several fingers from his left hand in an injury sustained during the armed insurgency against Russian government forces in the North Caucasus.

A media activist with Azhiyev's group told RFE/RL earlier this year that Azhiyev had not sworn an oath of allegiance to the North Caucasus militant group the Caucasus Emirate, but would fight alongside them if he were to return to Chechnya.

Junud al-Sham is led by the veteran ethnic Chechen militant Muslim al-Shishani (Murad Margoshvili) from Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, who fought alongside Arab foreign fighters in Chechnya.

Tarkhan's Jamaat is a much smaller group of fighters loyal to Chechen militant Tarkhan Ismailovich Gaziyev.

All three fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces alongside Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham -- factions that are opposed to IS.

Why Create An 'IS Threat' In Latakia?

The Life News claim that IS poses a threat in Latakia is part of Moscow's "grand narrative" about the Syrian conflict, according to which Assad is engaged in a war against extremist groups funded by external enemies.

Moscow has insisted that only the Syrian Army is capable of opposing these groups, chiefly IS. "Excluding the Syrian Army from the fight against IS is absurd," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on September 13.

Life News makes another assertion that is based on distorted facts but which reveals a larger truth about why Moscow is helping Assad shore up his military capabilities in Latakia.

Controlling the mountains of Latakia is "not the terrorists' goal," Life News says. Instead, the Chechen-led groups have advanced into Latakia to "advance from Idlib Province...and advance into Hama Province."

This claim is misleading. All three Chechen-led militant groups in Latakia have been entrenched there for well over a year before they took part in the Idlib offensives.

What is true is the claim that rebels from Idlib could advance on Latakia. That is a very real fear for Assad (and Moscow).

A key loyalist bastion, Latakia is the home of numerous Syrian government officials -- including Assad himself. And so far, although there have been Islamist rebel offensives here -- against the Armenian town of Kessab in 2014, for example -- Syrian government supporters have by and large felt safe there.

But that is changing.

Since taking Idlib city in March, Nusra-led fighters including the Chechen groups have advanced toward Latakia. In April they took Jisr al-Shughour, on the road between Latakia city and Aleppo.

The current focus of the battle is the Al-Ghab plain, a strategic area between Latakia, Hama, and Idlib provinces, which connects Idlib with the Latakia mountains.

If the rebels advance past Al-Ghab, Assad is in serious trouble. He cannot afford to undertake a strategic retreat from his heartland of Latakia, a fact Russia understands all too well.

Ahead of any Russian military build-up in Latakia, it is therefore convenient for Life News to conflate the presence of Chechen militants in that province with the IS threat -- even if the threat to Assad's stronghold does not come from IS.

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 07:10 PM

https://news.vice.com/article/barrel-bombs-and-artillery-take-heavy-toll-on-vital-rebel-offensive-in-syrias-south

Barrel Bombs and Artillery Take Heavy Toll on Vital Rebel Offensive in Syria's South
By Tom Dale

September 15, 2015 | 7:28 pm

A powerful coalition of moderate Syrian rebel groups who receive covert backing from the West have renewed calls for a no-fly zone in the south of the country, as their offensive against government troops grinds to a crawl amid heavy bombardment.

The Southern Front is the largest force still to fight under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, and the dominant rebel formation in the city of Daraa, next to the Jordanian border. That places it within striking distance of the Syrian capital of Damascus.

The coalition is avowedly moderate and has publicly rejected coordination with Islamist militias, including al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, al Nusra.

More appealing still to Western observers, they have been winning. From late 2014 until early summer this year, they notched up a string of impressive victories, beating back forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.

In one early success, they took the hilltop stronghold of Tal al-Harra last October, overrunning an abandoned Russian intelligence base. An Assad-regime general who had made contact with the Southern Front purposely deployed his troops in a weak formation, before defecting in a fake ambush, designed to make it look like he had been killed. He was spirited to Amman, where he provided vital intelligence, leading to the capture of the base, according to the National newspaper.

The victory pointed to another of the Southern Front's assets: their relative moderation make them an attractive target for defectors from the Assad regime who would never consider supporting Islamists.

By this summer, analysts were feting the Southern Front. One called them Syria's "last, best hope." But then the offensive stalled.

"We faced a very strong defense from the regime because of the symbolic and strategic importance of the city," Southern Front spokesperson Issam al-Rayes told VICE News. "Daraa is 50 miles from the capital and was where the revolution began."

"As we started the operation the regime started heavily shelling the civilians in surrounding villages with barrel bombs and also targeted field hospitals as a collective punishment method," he added. " It was hard for us to continue with this brutal onslaught."

Between late June and early September, the Southern Front took just a few blocks inside Daraa city.

A VICE News film released last week follows one of the brigades that make up the Southern Front during this hard-fought battle. The film tells the story of Zakaria Aboud, the brigade's commander, who before the revolution was a plumber, and his fight to take the eastern suburbs of Daraa.

The documentary shows the punishing impact of air attacks and heavy artillery on a force with no air force of its own, and on the surrounding civilian population.

Rayes renewed calls for the international community to impose a no-fly zone over southern Syria, and said that the Southern Front would welcome ground-support airstrikes, similar to those which have been used to back the Kurds against Islamic State (IS) militants in the north.

"ISIS is the symptom of a cause, the cause is Assad," he said, using an alternative acronym for IS. "Dealing with the symptom without addressing the cause will not succeed and will be a waste of money as well as a waste of our blood."

"A no-fly zone will save civilian lives and will strengthen moderate opposition forces to address the cause of the problem: Assad. This is the way the west should be thinking about it, not the other way round," Rayes added.

But given that politicians in Britain and the US have ruled out direct intervention against the Assad regime, preferring to focus on IS, those calls are likely to go unheeded for now.

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond last week set out proposals to target only IS and said that he wanted to avoid becoming involved in "involved in complex three-way fights in north-west Syria where regime forces and other forces are involved," although the Southern Front itself fights only the regime.

Meanwhile, Britain and the US, along with several other allies in the region, are covertly involved in supporting the Southern Front through a Military Operations Centre (MOC) in Amman, it has been widely reported.

"Most sources report that each country that provides aid to the insurgency is represented in the MOC, but that major decisions are made by the United States, Jordan, and Gulf Arab countries supporting the insurgents," said Faysal Itani, a resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

"This support ranges from financial support, the provision of small arms and ammunition, strategic and tactical planning and advice, and the provision of resources to support aid provision and local governance in southern Syria."

This foreign backing was important in bringing together several rebel groups in 2014 to form the Southern Front.

Since that time, observers have welcomed the rebels' success, while expressing caution over their exact relationship with jihadist organizations such the Nusra Front and more moderate Islamists including as Ahrar al-Sham, as well as their real strength relative to such groups.

Because Jordan has closed its northern border to Syria to all but Syrians — a measure that has kept foreign fighters out, ensuring that IS is virtually non-existent in the area — journalists have been unable to enter, and independent verification of the situation on the ground has been hard to come by.

"These groups are not welcome in our operations rooms," Rayes said, referring to the Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham. "They do not share our ideology and our vision for a democratic, pluralistic, free Syria."

Itani said that nonetheless there is a sense in which they coordinate.

"If you mean one knows what the other is doing, and that there are efforts at promoting a synergy at times during battles and in choosing battles, this does exist," he said. "The MOC knows it does, and understands it would be unrealistic to expect otherwise. I would distinguish this from cooperation, as in launching joint operations or fighting side by side."

"Nusra provides essential shock troops and, critically, suicide bombers. Relative to its numbers, it has disproportionate importance," he added.

NOTICE no talk of the TOWs which they have been receiving in large numbers.....

OUTLAW 09

09-15-2015, 07:21 PM

http://www.gmfus.org/blog/2015/09/14/putin-losing-ukraine-looks-syria#sthash.QAqD1GAa.wo6tJZFV.dpuf

Putin Losing in Ukraine, Looks to Syria

September 14, 2015

Ulrich Speck

In Ukraine, the Kremlin’s overarching goal has been to bring that country back under Russian control. But as Ukraine has become a stronger state that is integrating itself with the West, the likelihood for the Kremlin’s success is getting smaller every day. In order to distract from this strategic defeat, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased his military engagement in Syria. In the Kremlin’s view, Syria is another country where the United States and Russia fight for dominance, and it seems that Putin thinks that Syria presents an opportunity to win. The West should tread carefully, and take Moscow’s initiative as a further sign that a major diplomatic push is way past due in Syria – but not on Putin’s terms.

Russia will not announce defeat in Ukraine. But Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian-led attack in Donbas in combination with support from the West has made it impossible for Moscow to win back control over Ukraine any time soon without a major war. Instead of falling back into Russia’s sphere of domination, Ukraine has started along the long and hard road toward building a liberal-democratic nation state.

The Minsk II ceasefire has given Ukraine needed breathing space, moving the conflict from the military field to the diplomatic field. Russia had hoped that it could achieve its goal with diplomatic means, exerting pressure on Ukraine and its Western backers to accept a wide-ranging autonomy of Donbas and legal opportunities to Moscow’s proxies to block nation-wide policies it did not like.

But neither Ukraine nor the West is ready to accept Russia’s interpretation of Minsk II. Instead of becoming a tool to control Ukraine, the Donbas region is becoming another “frozen conflict,” a Russian-controlled enclave, similar to Transnistria. Under economic stress because of the fall of oil prices and Western sanctions, and without substantial support from other important players (such as China), the Kremlin seems to be ready to give up on the goal of reintegrating Ukraine, at least for the moment.

Increasing Russia’s role in Syria presents an opportunity for Putin to put Moscow back in the center of global politics, distract from the quagmire that the Donbas has become, and to score points abroad and at home.

Russia has always been a staunch supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, delivering weapons and shielding his regime from international condemnation by using its veto at the UN Security Council. But the Russian military build-up in Syria late last week caught the West by surprise.

By signaling to everybody that Russia is fully committed to keep Assad in power, Putin is exploiting Washington’s insecurity about its Syria strategy. While the United States and other Western governments have taken a stance against the Assad regime in the past, they have nevertheless focused their fight on the self-proclaimed Islamic State group (ISIS), not on the Assad regime. Putin wants to demonstrate that he, in contrast, is a bold actor with a strategy and a reliable patron in the region. His other message is that the time of regime change is over and that Russia stands ready to defend autocratic clients (taking a similar role to the one Russia played in the 19th century as the bulwark of monarchic legitimacy against Western liberalism and revolution).

At the same time, Putin is hoping that if he can pull together a strong anti-ISIS campaign under the headline of the “war on terrorism,” the West may again see Russia as a reliable player ready to work for solutions in regional crises.

Like the Ukraine adventure, the Syrian engagement is a risky game. Assad may be just like former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych: a man of the past that Putin tries vainly to keep in power. Assad will certainly not be able to regain control over Syria; at best he will be able to defend the territory he has managed to keep, or parts of it. Russia alone will not be able to substantially change the balance of power. ISIS may even be able to push Assad out, leaving Russia with no cards to play in Syria anymore. This would be an eerie repeat of Russia’s bid for influence in Ukraine.

In any case, Western policymakers should resist the temptation to align themselves with Russia in Syria. They should make clear that they understand that Assad’s terror is the root cause of the violence in Syria and that his bombing campaigns against civilians are the main drivers of the refugee crisis. They should understand that it is time for a major diplomatic initiative to push for a transformation in Syria, in order to set-up a post-Assad government that would be supported by the West in its fight against ISIS. The refugee crisis and Russia’s stepped-up military involvement should serve as a wake-up call: the longer the war in Syria drags on, the more costly it will become, in all regards.

CrowBat

09-15-2015, 07:40 PM

This is why I say one has to observe exactly what weapon systems and equipment are going into Syria----These two are prevelant in the Ukraine and are strictly Russian issued.

'Pantsir-S1' And 'Ural-43206' in Ukraine--BOTH have now been reported by social media as being in Syria.

NOW what is interesting is that the Pantsir-S1 is the most modern Russian AD system next to the S300s and S400s.

WHY does Russia need the Pantsir when the IS does not even have a flying carpet to speak of anywhere in the ME?...but this is 'wow' only if you have no clue about Assad's military.

I mean: OK, if you would follow a line of something like, 'when Emiratis deployed their mechanized brigade to Yemen, few weeks ago, the only air defence system they brought with them was ..... drums.... yeah, "SA-22" - aka Pantsyr'. (After the latest, SS-21-caused catastrophe in Marib, these had to be reinforced through addition of PAC-2s, of course.)

So, in theory, you could say this 'must' mean the Russians are now about to deploy at least one of their mechanized brigades to Syria too, then they have - supposedly - delivered Pantsyrs to Syria.

BUT...

The air defence regiment of the (former) Republican Guards Division is operating Pantsyrs already since 2007-2008. There are even high-rez photos of them, taken back in 2011 (let me know if you would like to have one).

Or what do you think was the reason the USAF was using F/A-22s for its opening strikes on Daesh and JAN in specific parts of Syria, last autumn...?

So, what's really 'new' here?

BUT with the Pantsir the Russians can actually establish with ease air space denial even over a large part of Isreal.Oh, but sure (indeed: I was waiting for this). Given Israel is some 15 by 15 kilometres, right...?

Namely, the SA-22 has a slant range of about 20km.

Guess, that's making it actually the next 'existential threat' for Israel, right?

Especially if the Syrians get as dumb as to position it right at the cease-fire line on Israeli-occuppied Golan Heighs, preferably within range of Israeli artillery too - then nothing else is going to work for what you call 'establish with ease air space denial even over a large part of Israel'. :D

Hand at heart: in worst case, Russians might deliver enough SA-22s to Assad to enable him to deploy some away from Damascus. Protect Lattakia and/or Tartous from another Israeli air strike whenever Russians have delivered some new weapons system to Assad...

If that's 'air space denial', then it's a 'denial of small portions of Syrian airspace', but surely no threat for Israel.

So one does not need a large amount of ground troops if one wants to intimadate the US in the air space over Syria.Please, be so kind and explain me: Syrian SA-22s are a threat for

- a) Israel, or
- b) USA.

Then, you know - and contrary to widespread opinion - some say these two states are not the same. But, since you start with Israel, and then jump to the USA, I'm really not sure of your standpoint.

Even NATO is now highly concerned about the Russian AD Systems.

We're going to have to develop TTPs [tactics, techniques & procedures] to address" Russia's "long-range SAM array"Firstly, SA-22 is no 'long-range threat'.

Secondly, long-range threat would be such stuff like S-300, i.e. something from the SA-10/12/20-series.

Syria never got anything of this.

And thirdly: SA-10s and SA-12s are on NATO's threat lists since the late 1980s (at least).

So, if they haven't got TTPs for at least these two variants (which would surprise me mightly, considering the USAF's FWS has had TTPs for them back in the early 1990s)... what would you like to say that all the NATO air forces were doing the last 20+ years...?

Sitting on their hands?

Once again: what's the actual reason for getting upset about all of this...?

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 04:43 AM

Appears Russia does not want the refugee crisis to go away ie be resolved.

EU may not send the army against refugee smugglers without Putin's permission pic.twitter.com/dcttucynY9

AND the Russian info war drumbeat that is all the fault of the US just keeps on beating---

Assad: Syria's civil war not caused by his mistakes, but b/c US invaded Iraq, supported terrorists in Afghanistan https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/643997483601928193 …

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 11:14 AM

...but this is 'wow' only if you have no clue about Assad's military.

I mean: OK, if you would follow a line of something like, 'when Emiratis deployed their mechanized brigade to Yemen, few weeks ago, the only air defence system they brought with them was ..... drums.... yeah, "SA-22" - aka Pantsyr'. (After the latest, SS-21-caused catastrophe in Marib, these had to be reinforced through addition of PAC-2s, of course.)

So, in theory, you could say this 'must' mean the Russians are now about to deploy at least one of their mechanized brigades to Syria too, then they have - supposedly - delivered Pantsyrs to Syria.

BUT...

The air defence regiment of the (former) Republican Guards Division is operating Pantsyrs already since 2007-2008. There are even high-rez photos of them, taken back in 2011 (let me know if you would like to have one).

Or what do you think was the reason the USAF was using F/A-22s for its opening strikes on Daesh and JAN in specific parts of Syria, last autumn...?

So, what's really 'new' here?

Oh, but sure (indeed: I was waiting for this). Given Israel is some 15 by 15 kilometres, right...?

Namely, the SA-22 has a slant range of about 20km.

Guess, that's making it actually the next 'existential threat' for Israel, right?

Especially if the Syrians get as dumb as to position it right at the cease-fire line on Israeli-occuppied Golan Heighs, preferably within range of Israeli artillery too - then nothing else is going to work for what you call 'establish with ease air space denial even over a large part of Israel'. :D

Hand at heart: in worst case, Russians might deliver enough SA-22s to Assad to enable him to deploy some away from Damascus. Protect Lattakia and/or Tartous from another Israeli air strike whenever Russians have delivered some new weapons system to Assad...

If that's 'air space denial', then it's a 'denial of small portions of Syrian airspace', but surely no threat for Israel.

Please, be so kind and explain me: Syrian SA-22s are a threat for

- a) Israel, or
- b) USA.

Then, you know - and contrary to widespread opinion - some say these two states are not the same. But, since you start with Israel, and then jump to the USA, I'm really not sure of your standpoint.

Firstly, SA-22 is no 'long-range threat'.

Secondly, long-range threat would be such stuff like S-300, i.e. something from the SA-10/12/20-series.

Syria never got anything of this.

And thirdly: SA-10s and SA-12s are on NATO's threat lists since the late 1980s (at least).

So, if they haven't got TTPs for at least these two variants (which would surprise me mightly, considering the USAF's FWS has had TTPs for them back in the early 1990s)... what would you like to say that all the NATO air forces were doing the last 20+ years...?

Sitting on their hands?

Once again: what's the actual reason for getting upset about all of this...?

So Crow Bat let me see --in your remarks your take based on a NATO Generals' open public statements--- is that there is no advanced Russian AD threat for NATO and Syria coming from the currently deployed Russian AD systems to include those now deployed into eastern Ukraine and those deployed in Syria controlled by the Russian military?

If I understood your comments then the S300s that Russia signed the deal with Assad on and have not been delivered if my sources are correct are coming once the forward airfields can take them is not a threat? Notice I said deployed to Russian forward bases which assumes under Russian control but nominally assigned the Assad military.

And the soon to be delivered S300s to Iran which Russia and Iran reaffirmed are indeed being shipped are again not a threat at all?

You do realize that the S1 and it has not been actually identified as the S1--the S2 is also available----the S1and 2 are designed to be integrated with exactly the S300/400s and that Syrian army's 200 series that they have in country integrate as well into the command and control modules of the S300s. Thus in a relatively short period of time a layered AD system is in place integrating Syrian assets and Russian assets under control of the Russian military actually the GRU covering most of the still Assad controlled territory---it was--- was it not a Syrian 200 series that shot down the Turkish RF-4F over the Med and some say he was running hot and fast and still was hit?

Now once the Russian AD integration is complete you will see an inherent and definitely perceived threat to US/Allied aircraft over all of Syria and that includes threats to drone and cruise missiles. you missed evidently the NATO Generals comments as they were concerning an integrated layered and overlapping Russian AD system--even in eastern Ukraine they formed exactly this to protect their deployed troops--integrated, layered and overlapping. The 300s were moved into Crimea and Kaliningrad to form the integration--400s are being projected soon for Crimea.

That was the reasoning behind the not so subtle Russian FM lavrov's threat comments of "unintended consequences".

And I am assuming from your comments that the USAF has SEAD qualified pilots and aircraft that can be deployed if needed from the US AF Reserve --but wait the only USAF Reserve squadron that was the only AF asset that was SEAD qualified was flipped in 2009 and there is no longer any USAF SEAD qualified unit in the entire USAF.

As the remaining USAF SEAD unit they had demanded to be flipped so they could fly in AFG and Iraq and drop bombs--that was when the USAF felt there was no longer a need for SEAD.

While your comments on the 20 year old TTPs is interesting conduct a research and check out the utter lack of current USAF qualified/certified SEAD pilots and aircraft capabilities--there are none-can pilots fly and aircraft drop missiles yes--but the USAF has always maintained to conduct SEAD requires certified pilots and aircraft for that particular mission set--AND yes we did have them 30 plus years ago.

NOW is the interesting comment--can an armed drone take over the mission set--yes it can and in Libya a Predator did in fact claim a kill on a active SA-8 while the USAF strike aircraft did fly SAM interdiction missions where the SAMS never lit up any inbound aircraft--basically they were sitting on the rails and not functioning as the crews fled when they heard incoming aircraft.

One of the lessons learned in Libya was basically the non use of the estimated 24K advanced MANPADS the Libyan military had but were never used froze the AF in place because of the perceived threats---once the USAF realized they were not being used NATO strike aircraft became more aggressive--BUT the C-130 Specters were never allowed to fly over Libya--were always off the coast but never over land.

A lot of the strategic bombing runs conducted there were done in a stand off distance mode to avoid perceived AD abilities that never did materialize.

So back to your comments--notice just how the perceived threat of SA18/24s MANPAD deployments kept the USAF at a "safe" distance especially the Specter gunships --it was the same for the older but just as effective even today's standards the SA5/6/8s.

NOW go back and check the NATO AFs and see just how many Tornado's are still in the inventory and check how many F4s/variants are still flying---these two were the backbone of the NATO/US SEAD early attack capacity to knock a hole in the Soviet AD systems for later SEAD direct attacks.

Even the US F111s were designed for specific SEAD attacks and the last time they flew in SEAD direct attack mode was Desert Storm-now they sit in the desert air graveyard in Tucson AZ.

THIS is what the General is referring to--and he is 600% correct in his comments that NATO has to get back to the SEAD basics.

Even the US Army cannot conduct CAM under the combat conditions seen in the eastern Ukraine being practiced by the current professionally manned Russian army---you are hearing as well from the US Army--we have to get back to the basics---fast.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 02:38 PM

So Crow Bat let me see --in your remarks your take based on a NATO Generals' open public statements--- is that there is no advanced Russian AD threat for NATO and Syria coming from the currently deployed Russian AD systems to include those now deployed into eastern Ukraine and those deployed in Syria controlled by the Russian military?

If I understood your comments then the S300s that Russia signed the deal with Assad on and have not been delivered if my sources are correct are coming once the forward airfields can take them is not a threat? Notice I said deployed to Russian forward bases which assumes under Russian control but nominally assigned the Assad military.

And the soon to be delivered S300s to Iran which Russia and Iran reaffirmed are indeed being shipped are again not a threat at all?

You do realize that the S1 and it has not been actually identified as the S1--the S2 is also available----the S1and 2 are designed to be integrated with exactly the S300/400s and that Syrian army's 200 series that they have in country integrate as well into the command and control modules of the S300s. Thus in a relatively short period of time a layered AD system is in place integrating Syrian assets and Russian assets under control of the Russian military actually the GRU covering most of the still Assad controlled territory---it was--- was it not a Syrian 200 series that shot down the Turkish RF-4F over the Med and some say he was running hot and fast and still was hit?

Now once the Russian AD integration is complete you will see an inherent and definitely perceived threat to US/Allied aircraft over all of Syria and that includes threats to drone and cruise missiles. you missed evidently the NATO Generals comments as they were concerning an integrated layered and overlapping Russian AD system--even in eastern Ukraine they formed exactly this to protect their deployed troops--integrated, layered and overlapping. The 300s were moved into Crimea and Kaliningrad to form the integration--400s are being projected soon for Crimea.

That was the reasoning behind the not so subtle Russian FM lavrov's threat comments of "unintended consequences".

And I am assuming from your comments that the USAF has SEAD qualified pilots and aircraft that can be deployed if needed from the US AF Reserve --but wait the only USAF Reserve squadron that was the only AF asset that was SEAD qualified was flipped in 2009 and there is no longer any USAF SEAD qualified unit in the entire USAF.

As the remaining USAF SEAD unit they had demanded to be flipped so they could fly in AFG and Iraq and drop bombs--that was when the USAF felt there was no longer a need for SEAD.

While your comments on the 20 year old TTPs is interesting conduct a research and check out the utter lack of current USAF qualified/certified SEAD pilots and aircraft capabilities--there are none-can pilots fly and aircraft drop missiles yes--but the USAF has always maintained to conduct SEAD requires certified pilots and aircraft for that particular mission set--AND yes we did have them 30 plus years ago.

NOW is the interesting comment--can an armed drone take over the mission set--yes it can and in Libya a Predator did in fact claim a kill on a active SA-8 while the USAF strike aircraft did fly SAM interdiction missions where the SAMS never lit up any inbound aircraft--basically they were sitting on the rails and not functioning as the crews fled when they heard incoming aircraft.

One of the lessons learned in Libya was basically the non use of the estimated 24K advanced MANPADS the Libyan military had but were never used froze the AF in place because of the perceived threats---once the USAF realized they were not being used NATO strike aircraft became more aggressive--BUT the C-130 Specters were never allowed to fly over Libya--were always off the coast but never over land.

A lot of the strategic bombing runs conducted there were done in a stand off distance mode to avoid perceived AD abilities that never did materialize.

So back to your comments--notice just how the perceived threat of SA18/24s MANPAD deployments kept the USAF at a "safe" distance especially the Specter gunships --it was the same for the older but just as effective even today's standards the SA5/6/8s.

NOW go back and check the NATO AFs and see just how many Tornado's are still in the inventory and check how many F4s/variants are still flying---these two were the backbone of the NATO/US SEAD early attack capacity to knock a hole in the Soviet AD systems for later SEAD direct attacks.

Even the US F111s were designed for specific SEAD attacks and the last time they flew in SEAD direct attack mode was Desert Storm-now they sit in the desert air graveyard in Tucson AZ.

THIS is what the General is referring to--and he is 600% correct in his comments that NATO has to get back to the SEAD basics.

Even the US Army cannot conduct CAM under the combat conditions seen in the eastern Ukraine being practiced by the current professionally manned Russian army---you are hearing as well from the US Army--we have to get back to the basics---fast.

BLUF--as one of the few if not the only one that comments here at SWJ who has actually advised, trained and mentored Russian brigade staff officers, officers from their military academy and the MoD (2012/2013) and having watched them in the eastern Ukraine and having been intensively briefed by them on their reform plan 2020--I pay intense attention to weapons and weapons systems as that is the indicator of what the military it is prepared to do and not do.

This Russian army is highly professional especially the troops that were sent into Syria--marines from the Crimea, Russian airborne fro Pskov and the GRU/Spetsnaz--all combat veterans of the Ukraine invasion of August 2014.

This new Russian army is anything but dedicated to doctrine and that doctrine dictates for AD a integrated, layered and overlapping concept regardless of the size of the unit on the ground.

If the initial social media is correct and actually I trust it far more right now than the entire US intel community that did not see this coming but social media called it immediately--initially it looked like 1500 troops on the ground--depending on how they structure that is still three operational maneuver BNs.

Under the new Russian maneuver doctrine that BN is compact, independent and has everything it needs for self protection and offensive operations including AD, artillery, tanks, logistics and drones--AND it does integrate with other BNs on the ground.

Right now Russia has the capacity to easily field three complete Russian brigades in Syria and three in the Ukraine and maintain that ops tempo for six months before they must swap out the units.

ALL and I mean all western mainstream media stated that it appeared that only a few troops had landed---BUT then yesterday there was a social media report of at least a full BN on the move to a new location--SO exactly where and when did that BN make it into Syria should be answered.

Masking operations one zero one--the basis for all Russian doctrine.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 02:51 PM

Social media open source analysis on the support of the
Russian Navy for Assad

Very good charts on the ships, and other shipping and movement data at the end of the article.

https://en.informnapalm.org/war-in-syria-how-the-russian-navy-helps-bashar-assad/

War in Syria: How the Russian Navy helps Bashar Assad

The Syrian government forces have relatively successfully fought against several opponents (Syrian rebels, moderate Islamists, Syrian Kurds and ISIS) for five years already. The territory controlled by Bashar al-Assad decreases each year, but the regime still preserves the power thanks largely to the economic and military support of the Russian Federation. The InformNapalm team decided to demonstrate the traffic statistics of various Russian fleets’s warships in the Syrian port of Tartus. This article contains the results of the investigation of Anton Pavlushko, our OSINT-expert, who made an extensive analysis and prepared several tables with the times, periods, expeditions count and the list of the Russian Navy’s transport warships involved into military cargoes deployment to Syria (direct link – http://bit.ly/VovaHelpingBashar).

One of the reasons of this long-running conflict is Assad’s regime’s “endless war reserves” which Russia constantly refills both by air and by sea. The air traffic is limited nowadays, but the sea traffic remains a robust life-line for Bashar.

The main role in the military cargoes transfer to Syria is played by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (the home base is located in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, Ukraine).

Theoretically, Russia could have established the military smuggling to Syria with the help of civil ships, but the first freight inspection would provoke an international scandal – that is why the Navy’s warships are used for the convoys. The traffic to the Syrian port goes through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.

The warships cannot be revised and the passing of the straits is the subject to Montreux Convention from 1936 and requires only a notification of the Turkish authorities about the coming event.

In this way, the Russian landing platform/docks (LPDs) are used for military equipment and troops transfer to Syria. The Black Sea fleet has 7 LPDs as part of the 197th landing ship brigade.

It is worth noting that the Ukrainian LPD ‘Konstantin Olshansky’ (captured by the Russians during the annexation of Crimea) is located in Sevastopol, but Russia does not venture to use it for cargoes transferring to Syria.

As you can see from the table, they could use only 4-5 ships out of 7, so it was decided to take LPDs from other fleets to increase the traffic capacity.

North fleet — 4 Project 775 class LPDs:

Baltic fleet — 4 Project 775 class LPDs:

Pacific fleet — 3 Project 775 class LPDs and 1 Project 1171 class LPD:

*The ships that has not taken part in cargoes transferring to Syria through the Bosphorus are marked in red

These are the two main types of the landing ships (Project 775 and 1171):

The Project 1171 (started in 2004) had to reinforce the outdated Russian fleet with the new landing ships, but none of the ships of this class has been put in service due to poor funding.

The Russian military authorities also planned to reinforce the fleet capacity by the latest Mistral-class multipurpose landing ships ordered in France. This kind of ships could transfer up to 70 military trucks OR 40 tanks and 450 troops and have the displacement of 32000 tons which is several times greater than the Project 775/1171 LPDs (up to 4400 tons). But the annexation of Crimea and the applied sanctions ruined the plan. Now Russia has to use the old vessels built in Soviet times.

We took the Turkish Bosphorus Naval News site to analyze the traffic through the Bosphorus. It does not contain the full data, but the authors are sure they have processed 90-95% of the warships traffic through the strait. The InformNapalm volunteers combined the data from 2013-2015 and split it by the fleets, ship types and passages times.

More than 300 passings the Bosphorus in both directions by the Russian warships were registered in 3 years. More than 50 different ships from all the Russian Navy’s fleets participated in that, including at least 14 out of 18 LPDs in service – 5 (Black Sea fleet), 4 (Baltic fleet), 3 (North fleet), 2 (Pacific fleet).

The share of the landing ships among all the Russian warships passed the Bosphorus was more than 70% (229 of 303 passages). The Black sea fleet’s LPDs performed more than half of the passages, 20% is accounted for by LPDs of the Baltic fleet and around 10% by the North fleet’s LPDs.

The common route of the Russian LPDs: Sevastopol (if ship belongs to the Black sea fleet) — Novorossiysk — Bosphorus — Dardanelles — Latakia/Tartus.

The main cargo loading is done in Novorossiysk. Loading in Sevastopol requires cargo transferring to Crimea, which is rather difficult lately. So, the Russian ships have to make a detour from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk which extends an average expedition time to Tartus by 1 day. A typical expedition from Novorossiysk to Tartus takes 4 days.

One trip to Syria and back takes around 10 days – such trips can be tracked in the traffic through the Bosphorus. Often the Black sea fleet’s LPDs travel in pair, pass the straits and return back to the Black sea in 8-13 days.

Novorossiysk-Tartus trip takes around 4 days (1512 sea miles or 2433 km), the cargo is unloaded for several days and the ships sail home (the time spent is calculated with the SeaRates service).

InformNapalm_Syria_02_ENG

As you can see from the statistic information and info-graphic, the sea traffic increases each year. Presumably, there were more than 30 expeditions in 2013, and more than 45 in 2014. And they reached the level of 2014 already by September, 2015.

The landing ships of the Baltic and North fleets are used in rotation of Russia’s Mediterranean Fleet (in Russian), but, in fact, ply between Novorossiysk and Tartus.

The most frequent travelers to the Mediterranean are the ‘Kaliningrad’ LPD (10 times in 2014) and ‘Novocherkassk’ LPD (9 trips in 2014 and 8 in 2015). The technical maintenance in Tartus is provided by 2 floating workshops of the Black Sea Fleet – PM-56 and PM-138 which swap each 6 months (in Russian).

Thanks to the data of the Bosphorus Naval News project, we can speak about more than 100 trips of the Russian LPDs to Syria in 3 incomplete years.

The information about the warship trips can also be found in the open VKontakte groups where wives and servicemen share the actual coordinates of the ships. The ‘Syrian’ question arises there all the time.

Besides that, the Tartus port calls are covered in local media (in Kaliningrad, Sevastopol, Novorossiysk) and on the web sites of the Russian News Agency TASS, RIA Novosti, etc.

It is remarkable that the ships are fully loaded on the way to Tartus — the water-line is hardly seen on the pictures. But on the way to the Black sea it can easily be seen – the ships are empty.

We do not know much about the cargo, but starting from the summer of 2015 the Russian LPDs pass the Bosphorus with the military equipment on the upper deck. The tilt-covered or hidden under the camouflage net equipment has been pictured by many news agencies. This way the world got to know about ‘Nikolai Filchenkov’ LPD. In general, it is pretty dangerous maneuver for a LPD, since it is a long trip in the open sea.

The Project 1171 LPDs can take cargo on the upper deck, but it was weird when containers were placed on the upper deck of the Project 775 LPD, where is almost no free space. It seems like Russians experience some kind of ‘logistics panic’ these days. The deployment of the military cargo to Syria is intensive now. It is likely that Bashar al-Assad’s army badly needs a reinforcement.

Eventually, in the plain sight of the whole world Russia almost openly provides Assad’s regime with the weaponry. And lately the number of shipments increased. In result, we have millions of refugees, hundreds of thousands of killed people and general unrest in this oil producing region. But the world community starts to see who pours gasoline on a blaze of this war only now, 4 years later.

Even the hasteless European bureaucracy has started to take actions. And gradually Russia looses the possibility to transfer the cargoes by air, so the expeditions of the Russian LPDs through the Bosphorus will increase.

This way, while Russia’s economy experiences the pressure of sanctions for the Crimea occupation and the war in Donbas, the Russian Federation authorities spend billions of rubles on the Bashar Assad’s regime support. Having stuck in one war, the Kremlin enters another one. So, the ‘cargo 200’ [dead bodies] will come not only from Donbas, but also from Syria.

Additional materials and statistical data.

The approximate number of the trips to Tartus:

The number of the Russian LPDs involved into the expeditions to Syria, by fleets:

The number of the expeditions to Syria, by ships (in one year):

The appraisal report of the expeditions from January, 2013 till September 2015 (criterion – leaving the Black Sea and returning in 4 weeks)

All the Russian LPDs movements through the Bosphorus from January, 2013 till September, 2015:

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 02:57 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 03:09 PM

Crow Bat—there is such a beast called “Indications and Warnings” that I have been gently nudging you towards and yet…….you get hung up on missile knowledge not realizing the AD system is and was designed to stop a NFZ –it is that simple.

So Putin wants Assad to continue barrel bombing civilians (since Assad rarely bombs ISIS): https://uk.news.yahoo.com/syria-russias-motives-behind-military-build-165858572.html#xOmrFKW …

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 03:11 PM

Russian disinformation at work—after US rejected Putin’s offer to work with Assad and Russia against IS..

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
US-led coalition’s achievements in fighting #IS look modest.We urge to consolidate efforts in fighting the threat http://tass.ru/en/politics/821569 …

While air power alone will not win a ground war—if one read the recent article on the US A10 pilots flying over Iraq and Syria---the USAF and allies are literally killing thousands of inbound IS fighters and at least IS has not grown past an estimated 30K—THAT The Russian FM fails to mention.

NOTICE the US response was as follows--if you Russia are really serious about fighting IS join our coalition of 60 and fly the skies of Iraq and Syria with us---you are invited to join us--not membership fee is needed just send a timely answer.

NOTICE--not a response from Putin and or his FM SO Russia is not so serious about attacking IS.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 03:20 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 03:27 PM

http://www.cepa.org/content/putins-new-deception-call-anti-terror-coalition

Putin's New Deception: A Call for Anti-Terror Coalition

Marius Laurinavičius

September 16, 2015

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose troops are still helping the so-called rebels in eastern Ukraine, is trying to bring a new charm offensive to the West, including to the upcoming United Nations 70th General Assembly in New York.

"We really want to create some kind of international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism," Putin said on September 4 at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, reiterating the initiative he first announced in June.
Putin added that Moscow is “holding consultations with our American partners” on the issue and he had personally discussed it with President Barack Obama by phone. The Russian leader makes no secret that he is going to make this new initiative a centerpiece of his speech in New York.

Putin biographer Alexander Rahr, who is considered a key figure in German-Russian economic relations or even a lobbyist for Russia with close ties to Moscow, publicly called for the West not to ignore Putin’s appeal. He pointed out that this particular initiative can reconcile Russia and the West for the sake of their mutual interests.

Even before that, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the United States has been sending "signals" that it wants to start mending ties with Moscow, badly strained by the war in Ukraine.

This might be wishful thinking on the Kremlin’s part, for which a strategy to trade off Ukraine for closer cooperation with the West on other issues, especially a fight against terrorism, is not a new one. Surprisingly for Moscow, Western governments remain united on sanctions against Russia and show no willingness for any trade-off. However, voices in the West calling for a “broader perspective” on relations with Moscow, and not just its aggression in Ukraine, are becoming more and more vocal.

That is why Putin’s initiative should be taken seriously and analyzed not by the words of Russian leaders, but by their deeds.

In this respect, recent reports of a Russian military buildup in Syria are much more illustrative than the public campaign Moscow is continuing to build up in an effort to convince the West of its readiness to cooperate.

So, too, should an eye-opening article on how the Russian secret services are helping the Islamic State, written by Michael Weiss, a well-respected journalist and expert on Russia and terrorism, tell us much more about Moscow’s true intentions than the words of Putin or Lavrov.

The KGB has a long history of supporting all kinds of terrorists in their fight against the West, and Putin’s KGB-based regime has never abandoned this strategy. It would be more than naïve to think that the regime, whose propaganda constantly prepares its society for a war against the West, will support Washington or Brussels on any front.

True, Russia now is building up its strategy of seeming reconciliation with the West on the positive role it played in achieving the Iran nuclear deal. But no one should be fooled by Russia’s intentions. Since starting the war in Ukraine, Russia is trying to build as many anti-Western axes in the world as it can and to strengthen them as much as it can as well.

The Russia-China axis and Russia-Iran-Syria axis should be mentioned first, and all the steps Russia has recently taken should be considered from this perspective, including the Iran deal, courting the region by an anti-terrorism coalition proposal and other initiatives as well. Russia is serious about regaining influence in the Middle East. And there should be no doubt it is going to do that at the expense of the influence of the United States and the West as a whole, not as part of building a new platform of cooperation.

That is why Putin’s current call for cooperation against the threat of terrorism can hardly be considered aimed at reconciliation with the West—most probably just the opposite. It is a part of a much bigger strategy to counter and challenge the West. But Russia would be more than happy to trade off Ukraine on the way to achieving its more ambitious goals.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 03:31 PM

Same propaganda machine at work for Syria as in Ukraine. Deja vu: Blackwater mercenaries operating in Syria... lol https://twitter.com/ArtWendeley/status/644130875530199040 …

Most interesting word in this news piece:
"#deployment".
Not "support", like Putin said yesterday, anymore. pic.twitter.com/y27rCjy5xl

Erdoğan aims at Russia with unveiled criticism on Syria http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=238&nID=88562&NewsCatID=338 …

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 03:35 PM

https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/09/16/russian-military-high-command-warns-that-moscow-might-build-an-air-force-base-in-syria

IS sleep tight tonight as Putin the savior protects you……….in the ME.

Russian military high command warns that Moscow might build an air force base in Syria
 16:32, 16 September 2015 Interfax-AVN

The deputy head of Russia's Joint Chiefs, Nikolai Boganovsky, has admitted the possibility that Moscow might construct an air force base in Syria. "There are no plans for any such base today, but anything can happen," Boganovsky told the news agency Interfax-AVN.

On September 14, Bloomberg reported that Russia is currently leading talks on removing Assad from power. Bloomberg cited sources in Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia and reported that the talks are dedicated to a transition period, during which Assad will remain the temporary head of state. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia does not get involved in “regime change,” and the reports are mere speculation.

Various media sources have been reporting on Russia’s growing military presence in Syria since early September. Russia has claimed that the military cooperation with Syria is legal and in line with contracts for weapons supplies. Russian authorities have said that there are no Russian soldiers participating in the fighting in Syria.

In mid-September, Stratfor published satellite images showing construction at Assad International Airport near Latakia in Syria. Moscow announced on September 15 that Russia is participating in the construction because the airport’s airstrip is in such poor condition that it is impeding necessary military operations in the country. According to a military source speaking with Russian newspaper Vedomosti, these operations include delivering humanitarian aid and weapons purchased by Syria. The source also said that Russian soldiers are guarding the airstrip and the delivery of goods, but are not participating in any fighting in the country.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 03:55 PM

Crow Bat---again it is the military players and their equipment that is important in understanding Putin's intentions.

The Pskov Airborne Division while a combat unit from the August 2014 Ukraine invasion has taken it's loses in the Ukraine--they have been identified in Syria--this division has been declared combat ready and deployable anywhere Putin orders them and they are a fully contract professional unit--not conscripts.

The Missing Paratrooper Company

Ultimately, an entire company of Pskov paratroopers was reported to have been killed fighting in Ukraine in August, Pskovskaya Guberniya and Slon.ru reported on September 2. After these outlets published the news of the three paratroopers’ funerals, they were contacted by other paratroopers who requested anonymity but gave them a tape of an interview with soldiers in the company. The soldiers on the tape claimed that only 10 men had survived out of 80 and that as many as 140 could have died.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 04:08 PM

Crow Bat--here comes your command and control elements for a full Russian brigade--that is supposedly nowhere to be seen yet in Syria--BUT per doctrine this unit always deploys with the command element-and they deploy early with the commander and his staff -so exactly where is the "masked" brigade???

http://www.interpretermag.com/sighting-of-r-166-0-5-signals-vehicle-affirms-inflow-of-russian-military-into-syria/

Oryx Blog

Sighting of R-166-0.5 Signals Vehicle Affirms Inflow of Russian Military into Syria

September 16, 2015

This is a cross-post from Oryx Blog:

The past few days have seen a steep increase of evidence revealing the true extent of direct military involvement by the Russian military on the ground in Syria. The sighting of recently delivered Russian UAVs and Russian BTR-82A infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in addition to sound fragments confirming Russian military personnel directly participated in one of regime’s offensives in the Lattakia Governorate all proved Russia was deeper involved in the Syrian Civil War than many previously thought.

The true extent of Russia’s commitment in aiding the regime was further revealed by the frequent transits of a large number of Russian landing ships bound for Syria through the strait of Bosphorus along with at least fifteen flights made by Russian Air Force An-124 strategic airlifters to Lattakia. These ships and aircraft brought large numbers of vehicles, equipment and personnel to Syria. In order to house the Russian contingent, Hmeemeem/Bassel al-Assad IAP has been turned into a Russian military base and is currently being reconstructed to allow the deployment of land and air assets.

Newly published images showing a Russian R-166-0.5 (ultra) high-frequency signals (HF/VHF) vehicle driving through Syria’s coastal region now leaves little to no doubt on Russia’s intentions in Syria. The R-166-0.5 provides jam-resistant voice and data communications over a long range, enabling Russian troops to communicate with their bases in the coastal strongholds of Tartus and Lattakia while operating far inland.

The vehicle can be seen escorted by Syrian military personnel, likely belonging to the National Defence Force (NDF). Far more interesting however is the soldier sitting near the open hatch of the vehicle. Seemingly unaware that a photo is being taken, he is wearing the Russian Army’s standard digital flora uniform, once again proving that we’re truly dealing with Russian military personnel.

On the rear of the vehicle, darker olive paint has been used to conceal the tactical number of the R-166-0.5, eliminating any chance to identify the brigade the vehicle belongs to. Concealing the tactical number or any other identification marks became standard practice during the Ukrainian conflict.

According to an unofficial Russian Army brigade TOE (Table of Organization & Equipment), a total of eight R-166-0.5 signals (HF/VHF) vehicles equip the communications battalion of a brigade. The sighting of the R-166-0.5 thus means that a brigade HQ or, at least, a reinforced battalion (so-called Battalion Tactical Team) of Russian combat troops has recently arrived in Syria.

Some of the specifications of the R-166-0.5 (an example operated by the Russian Army can be seen below) as translated from this Russian Army fact-sheet:

Max range:

HF, stationary (with deployed antenna) – up to 1000 km
HF, on the move – up to 250 km
UHF, stationary – up to 70 km
UHF, on the move – up to 25 km

Frequency range:

HF – 1.5-29.99999 MHz
UHF – 30-107.975 MHz

As new information on Russia’s secretive operation in Syria continues to come to light, the deployment to Syria is yet to be strongly condemned by any nation. Although the U.S. has so far been watching with growing concern, warning Russia that its operation might further escalate the Syrian Civil War, it appears to have no real answer to the Russian operation in Syria. Unwilling to provide the Free Syrian Army with MANPADS, and with the majority of the mere sixty U.S. trained FSA fighters already out of action, the U.S. might have sidelined itself in Syria for good.

REMEMBER I just posted about the Russian BN tactical team having been spotted yesterday by social media--AND not carried by western mainstream media.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 04:14 PM

Another rare sight of an Eastern German NVA helmet with #SAA. pic.twitter.com/zOFYN8lbQY

An Kosovar fighter explains on camera why he joined ISIS. Explained his imprisonment by other rebel groups. pic.twitter.com/aK3B7A0r4X

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 04:28 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 04:57 PM

BREAKING: Defense officials tell NBC News that US special ops. forces are on ground in Syria assisting Kurdish forces in fight against ISIS

Not so subtle signal to Putin----

Protection of Syrian civilians is both a humanitarian imperative and a strategic necessity." - @FredericHof #ACSyria http://buff.ly/1W3oyEn

UK debating 'no fly zone' over #Syria. Looking at #Libya, this = heavy bombardment; as Russia steps up #Assad support. V volatile situation

Russian now proposing military to military contacts--Putin is desperately trying to gain control over the US efforts and make it look like he is leading the anti IS fight.

BUT Russia uses the term "terrorists" and that could mean any group that is anti Assad is fair game to be killed.

CrowBat

09-16-2015, 06:10 PM

Crow Bat---again it is the military players and their equipment that is important in understanding Putin's intentions.
Yup, and here you have his intentions - from that Interfax AVN article you've posted:

In mid-September, Stratfor published satellite images showing construction at Assad International Airport near Latakia in Syria. Moscow announced on September 15 that Russia is participating in the construction because the airport’s airstrip is in such poor condition that it is impeding necessary military operations in the country. According to a military source speaking with Russian newspaper Vedomosti, these operations include delivering humanitarian aid and weapons purchased by Syria. The source also said that Russian soldiers are guarding the airstrip and the delivery of goods, but are not participating in any fighting in the country.

Summary: reconstruction/repairs of Bassel Assad IAP, and securing arms deliveries. NO 'military intervention'.

Or, on other words: exactly what your very own gets to hear from Syria too.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 08:27 PM

Yup, and here you have his intentions - from that Interfax AVN article you've posted:

Summary: reconstruction/repairs of Bassel Assad IAP, and securing arms deliveries. NO 'military intervention'.

Or, on other words: exactly what your very own gets to hear from Syria too.

You realize that the Stratfor analysis wrongly identified an object on their airfield sat imagery and it was embarrassingly pointed out to them by social media-yet they did not respond since it was social media-right???

BTW-----.@zloy_odessit Meanwhile in #Syria. Command vehicle R-149BMRA Kushetka-B of tactical level. As in Luhansk a year ago pic.twitter.com/99JdTrtbXB

AND that accompanied a full Russian armored airborne invasion brigade.

BTW--use the imagery from this social media source--better quality---- better analysis----
Not a spy @finriswolf

#Russia #Taganrog 'Cargo' Airbase- Unit assembly on tarmac for swift #Syria deployment http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47.245882&lon=38.834095&z=14&m=b … pic.twitter.com/wvKoP5ZyK2

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 08:46 PM

Carbomb explosion in the loyalist Alwite al-Zahra neighborhood #Homs injured and killed 10s of residents reportedly.

pic.twitter.com/NkuNzDSwp4

CrowBat

09-16-2015, 08:55 PM

You realize that the Stratfor analysis...You realize I can't care less about STRATFOR or social media...?

A R-149BMRAXYZ is perfectly normal for a unit 'deployed in the field' - even if this is doing little else but 'guarding' Tartous depot (i.e. showing flag): word is that modern military needs advanced communications to work properly.

...which brings me to another 'similar' example (though one that was much more massive too, and indeed included an 'air bridge')...

Look at the photo below: it was taken at Kigali IAP (Rwanda), when US troops arrived there within frame of Op Provide Relief, in late 1994. And that was 'just' a part of the antenna farm they've errected there.

Along your logic (and that of plenty of others in similar panic these days), that was a 'US invasion' of Rwanda then...?

So, please, don't worry: I knew the IRGC-QF had the personnel of an entire brigade from its 8th Armoured Divison - and these taking over equipment from one of mechanized brigades of the former Republican Guards Division - when nobody knew there are any IRGC thugs in Syria, and even most of interested people never before heard the name of Soleimani.

I knew when the IRGC-QF brought in its 'own' Mi-17 helicopters; when these were deploying IRGC special forces troops for nocturnal attacks to lift the siege of Aleppo at the start of Soleimani's offensive; when these SF troops landed in a minefield and got slaughtered in the process; when IRGC began teaching SyAAF MiG-23 and MiG-29 pilots to use B-8M pods instead of obsolete UB-16-57s - and do so in cooperation with IRGC-operated UAVs... and many, many, many other 'stories' from there.

Bottom line: sorry, but I feel quite confident to say that I'll know whenever Putin launches an 'invasion' of Syria too - and that without any STRATFOR, Spioenkopf, WarIsBoring, or other sorts of blogs and whatever social- or other sorts of media there is.

OUTLAW 09

09-16-2015, 09:28 PM

This needs to be reread and fully understood by the Obama WH and his NSC

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/faysal-itani/in-zabadani-signs-of-a-ne_b_8097416.html

In Zabadani, Signs of a New and Worrying Iranian Strategy in Syria

Posted: 09/13/2015 8:51 pm EDT

Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat, is a co-author.

Amid promises from Iran of a peace plan for Syria, lets get one thing straight: The Islamic Republic is not negotiating over its key interests in Syria, but advancing them more directly, and possibly with less concern for Bashar al-Assad's fate. Furthermore, Assad's woes are not pressuring Iran to negotiate, but embedding it more deeply in Syria. Rather than bring peace, this will probably worsen the war's sectarian character, strengthen jihadist groups, and make a lasting settlement less likely than ever.

All this is on full display in the city of Zabadani.

Zabadani lies some 17 miles northwest of Damascus, astride a key Hezbollah supply line and near core Hezbollah territory in Lebanon. This makes the city critical for both the militia and Iran. In early July, Hezbollah and regime forces began an offensive to take Zabadani, besieging rebel forces there. Syrian rebels responded by encircling thousands of pro-regime and Hezbollah forces in Fu'a and Kefraya, northern Syria, using this as leverage to force a ceasefire in Zabadani. Sporadic fighting continues and the city's fate remains unclear. What is clear, however, is that Iran's handling of the Zabadani crisis indicates a shift in its Syria strategy, in which it either negotiates on behalf of or ignores Assad and his inner circle, securing its interests directly rather than by proxy.

Iran's negotiating terms are bad news for Syria. It reportedly offered to end the assault on Zabadani on two conditions: that its fighters be allowed to evacuate Fu'a and Kefraya, and that Zabadani's largely Sunni population leave the city. This would be the first deliberate, large-scale sectarian population transfer in the Syrian war. It is not clear whether that would benefit the regime, but displacing a hostile Sunni population from critical territory would clearly benefit Hezbollah and Iran, both Shia powers. That Iran is negotiating Syria's new sectarian geography indicates its war strategy has become less about reconquering insurgent territory, and more about shaping a new Syria to secure its interests.

Understanding Iran's approach requires distinguishing between Iranian and Syrian regime interests. Iran's efforts in Syria were never about saving Assad as such, but securing its own strategic position in the Levant. This means protecting Hezbollah supply lines in areas like Zabadani and preventing a hostile regime from emerging in Syria. Iran is not opposed to negotiation, but a lasting negotiated settlement to the war would be based roughly on the principles of the Geneva 2 agreement: consensus-based political transition. Whatever diplomatic initiatives it announces, the bitter truth is that as long as Iran believes it has other options, it cannot accept this outcome because it would endanger Hezbollah. A post-war order that enjoys the support of most of the insurgency and its domestic and foreign backers will not be as kind toward this Iranian proxy as Assad was.

The Iranian aspiration to transfer Zabadani's population and alter Syria's sectarian geography indicates it has little interest in serious negotiations at the moment. Indeed, it sets a terrible precedent for ethnic cleansing as a war strategy in a multi-sectarian country, in which the displacement of Sunnis (or other sects for that matter) would boost the sectarian narrative and recruitment prospects of jihadist groups like the Islamic State. An Iranian-led rather than Iranian-backed war on the insurgency would lead to an even more toxic and broken Syria.

This new dynamic threatens the US interests of defeating jihadist groups and facilitating an end to the war. As we argue in a new study for the Atlantic Council, however, local crises also present opportunities to protect US interests and preempt worst-case scenarios, including the ethnic cleansing of Zabadani and the catastrophes that would follow. Zabadani shows that Iran has a bold and coherent new strategy, while regional rivals active in Syria, including Turkey and the Gulf states, lack an effective answer. However the United States chooses to tackle this -- training and equipping new forces; working more closely with existing ones to push back on Iran's new sectarian strategy; directly negotiating in crises such as Zabadani; or helping cobble together a more effective regional coalition to increase negotiating leverage against Iran -- its policy should reflect Syria's new local realities, not a misreading of Iranian intentions.

Iran's diplomatic push on Syria is not about making serious compromises to end the Syrian war. It merely shows that Iran is more directly controlling its Syrian interests, reshaping its strategies and priorities accordingly. This may or may not involve sacrificing Assad, but if it does lead to regime change, it will look nothing like a Geneva 2-type compromise, and would certainly not involve meaningful Iranian sacrifices over its strategic position in Syria. More likely, this approach simply reflects Iran's calculation that the regime has become a burden -- an obstacle rather than a means to securing its core interests. As Zabadani makes clear, if Iran's new strategy goes unopposed, Syria will go from very bad to far worse.

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 06:21 AM

First the Obama so called Syrian program was shown yesterday to be a sham and now the WH is thinking of talking with a so called partner that has basically militarily blackmailed them in Syria because they had no strategic strategy outside of talking.

The incoming President in 2017 has his work cut out for him and or her regardless of political party.

From today's WJS---wsj.com/articles/u-s-senators-castigate-military-leaders-over-syria-1442431679

U.S. Weighs Talks With Russia on Military Activity in Syria
Pentagon leaders grilled over strategy to deal with regime of Bashar al-Assad

Philip Shishkin

Updated Sept. 16, 2015 7:38 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON—The Obama administration is considering discussions with Russia on military activities Syria in what would mark a shift in approach as U.S. policy comes under growing criticism at home.

Yuri Bezmenov: Psychological Warfare Subversion & Control of Western Society https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gnpCqsXE8g …

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 06:30 AM

You realize I can't care less about STRATFOR or social media...?

A R-149BMRAXYZ is perfectly normal for a unit 'deployed in the field' - even if this is doing little else but 'guarding' Tartous depot (i.e. showing flag): word is that modern military needs advanced communications to work properly.

...which brings me to another 'similar' example (though one that was much more massive too, and indeed included an 'air bridge')...

Look at the photo below: it was taken at Kigali IAP (Rwanda), when US troops arrived there within frame of Op Provide Relief, in late 1994. And that was 'just' a part of the antenna farm they've errected there.

Along your logic (and that of plenty of others in similar panic these days), that was a 'US invasion' of Rwanda then...?

So, please, don't worry: I knew the IRGC-QF had the personnel of an entire brigade from its 8th Armoured Divison - and these taking over equipment from one of mechanized brigades of the former Republican Guards Division - when nobody knew there are any IRGC thugs in Syria, and even most of interested people never before heard the name of Soleimani.

I knew when the IRGC-QF brought in its 'own' Mi-17 helicopters; when these were deploying IRGC special forces troops for nocturnal attacks to lift the siege of Aleppo at the start of Soleimani's offensive; when these SF troops landed in a minefield and got slaughtered in the process; when IRGC began teaching SyAAF MiG-23 and MiG-29 pilots to use B-8M pods instead of obsolete UB-16-57s - and do so in cooperation with IRGC-operated UAVs... and many, many, many other 'stories' from there.

Bottom line: sorry, but I feel quite confident to say that I'll know whenever Putin launches an 'invasion' of Syria too - and that without any STRATFOR, Spioenkopf, WarIsBoring, or other sorts of blogs and whatever social- or other sorts of media there is.

Crow Bat then you really do not understand the reorg of the Russian army under they 2020 program nor do you fully understand Russian doctrine and their use of their professional elite army units--single vehicles of this kind do not simply drive through the Syrian countryside as a normal vehicle-in this new Russian army it follows the exact location of the command element and that command element is tied directly to either an existing in country asset and or one that is flowing in--my question is exactly where is it--is it already there if not then just how is it to come in country.

The Russian army of Georgia 2008 is not this army of 2015.

IMHO this vehicle is positioning itself in order to handle GRU/Spetsnaz comms---since it was last seen associated to an armored airborne brigade in eastern Ukraine which was working with a Spetsnaz brigade. GRU units have been inside Syria in ever increasing numbers over the last year and especially since they "lost" one of their major intel collection centers to the anti Assad forces in the last six months.

It is lighter, adaptive when it wants to be and agile--in the past Soviet/Russian days they would not have parked a massive boomer with 200 warheads offshore to give emphasis to the military moves they are making. That was the exact same move Putin made with tactical nuke capable missiles parked next to Crimea and pointed West when he moved in.

In the Crimea and then eastern Ukraine--Putin has effectively negated the MAD principle--- the balancing aspect of the Cold War.

That makes every move of the Russian military outside Russia one to intensely watch.

BTW----#Damascus : Northern command bunker under construction http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.602101&lon=36.391965&z=17&m=b&v=1 … @TaziMorocco pic.twitter.com/APoKC4STyy

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 07:45 AM

You realize I can't care less about STRATFOR or social media...?

A R-149BMRAXYZ is perfectly normal for a unit 'deployed in the field' - even if this is doing little else but 'guarding' Tartous depot (i.e. showing flag): word is that modern military needs advanced communications to work properly.

...which brings me to another 'similar' example (though one that was much more massive too, and indeed included an 'air bridge')...

Look at the photo below: it was taken at Kigali IAP (Rwanda), when US troops arrived there within frame of Op Provide Relief, in late 1994. And that was 'just' a part of the antenna farm they've errected there.

Along your logic (and that of plenty of others in similar panic these days), that was a 'US invasion' of Rwanda then...?

So, please, don't worry: I knew the IRGC-QF had the personnel of an entire brigade from its 8th Armoured Divison - and these taking over equipment from one of mechanized brigades of the former Republican Guards Division - when nobody knew there are any IRGC thugs in Syria, and even most of interested people never before heard the name of Soleimani.

I knew when the IRGC-QF brought in its 'own' Mi-17 helicopters; when these were deploying IRGC special forces troops for nocturnal attacks to lift the siege of Aleppo at the start of Soleimani's offensive; when these SF troops landed in a minefield and got slaughtered in the process; when IRGC began teaching SyAAF MiG-23 and MiG-29 pilots to use B-8M pods instead of obsolete UB-16-57s - and do so in cooperation with IRGC-operated UAVs... and many, many, many other 'stories' from there.

Bottom line: sorry, but I feel quite confident to say that I'll know whenever Putin launches an 'invasion' of Syria too - and that without any STRATFOR, Spioenkopf, WarIsBoring, or other sorts of blogs and whatever social- or other sorts of media there is.

Crow Bat--another perfect failure of the billions of dollars spent on the US intel community----they simply were not watching and in my opinion really did not care about Syria--

So the big question again that I raise and did raise about the commo vehicle---WHEN did they get there and how without being seen-answer via sea lift over the last six months or so and quietly offloaded at night.

Russian military never does a single thing without a thorough plan and then implementing exactly that plan and that take's time--

SO this so called move into Syria has been ongoing for about the same time as the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine--why "masking ops" again--while the US and all others have been looking daily at the Ukraine--there was no time for Syria. In an article I posted yesterday you can see the number of military freighters that have been going to Syria since 2013 and if you add up their off loading capacity--it has been huge. THUS no need for airlift as that would have raised red flags.

AND if you noticed Russia elegantly argued the recent 2 flights per day were largely humanitarian aid--same argumentation is being used in eastern Ukraine with another 100 "aid" truck convoy going in the next few days (38th convoy in one year) with no controls--IE just another militay supply run just without ships.........

17.09.2015 | 10:09

The United States has identified a small number of Russian helicopters at a Syrian airfield, U.S. officials said on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

One of the officials said four helicopters had been identified, including helicopter gunships, although it was not clear when the Russian helicopters had arrived there, the report says.

http://www.unian.info/world/1126096-us-spots-russian-helicopters-in-syria.html

OR where they brought into Syria by the IRGC and then "reflagged"????

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 07:50 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 10:55 AM

Crow Bat--this confirms what I have trying to get you to understand--Russian involvement is deeper and more intense thyan you and the entire West seems to think it is not.

Notice in the Reuters report that Syrian troops are indicating they are suing new weapons systems that they have been trained on in the last several months.

BUT WAIT has not the uproar about Russian troops been only in the last week or SO exactly where are these so called Russian trainers as no one seems to have seen them.

Sea lift, sea lift, sea lift--- now going on two full years. When all is said and done and we look back at this--we will not be surprised to see the massive Russian "masking ops" that took place.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/17/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-exclusive-idUSKCN0RH15S20150917

World | Thu Sep 17, 2015 6:26am EDT

Exclusive: Syrian army starts using new weapons from Russia - military source

BEIRUT | By Tom Perry

The Syrian military has recently started using new types of air and ground weapons supplied by Russia, a Syrian military source told Reuters on Thursday, underlining growing Russian support to Damascus that is alarming the United States.

The source described the weapons as highly accurate and effective. The army had started using them in recent weeks having been trained in their use in Syria in recent months, the source said.

"New weapons are being delivered, and new types of weapons. The Syrian army is being trained in the use of these weapons. In fact, the army has started using some of these (weapon) types," the source said in response to a question about Russian support.

"The weapons are highly effective and very accurate, and hit targets precisely," the source told Reuters. "We can say they are all types of weapons - be it air or ground."

The source declined to give further details about the weapons.

Alongside Russia's military supplies to the Syrian army, an ally since Soviet times, Moscow is expanding its own forces on the ground in Syria, where more than four years of war have killed an estimated 250,000 people.

Facing a manpower problem in the army, the Syrian government has lost ground this year in the northwest, the southwest and the center of the country to an array of groups including Islamic State and other insurgents battling to topple President Bashar al-Assad.

U.S. officials said on Wednesday the United States had identified a small number of Russian helicopters at a Syrian airfield, the latest addition to what Washington believes is a significant Russian military buildup in the country.

One of the officials said four helicopters had been identified, including helicopter gunships, although it was not clear when the Russian helicopters had arrived there.

Russia has been sending about two military cargo flights a day to an air base at Latakia on the government-controlled Syrian coast, U.S. officials say.

Reuters has previously reported on U.S. assessments that Russia has sent about 200 naval infantry forces, battle tanks, artillery and other equipment to an airfield near Latakia.

Thus far in the conflict, Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been the main source of military support for Damascus. Hezbollah has deployed directly in combat, while Iran has mobilized militias and sent military advisers.

Lebanese sources familiar with military and political developments in Syria have also previously told Reuters that Russians are taking part in military operations in the country. Syrian officials say the Russian military presence is restricted to experts.

Remember I keep stating the mantra follow the weapons systems and you will find Russian troops---there have been a number of MLRS shellings of Syrian civilians that used cluster munitions--there is only one Russian system that fires them---- the BM 30 WHICH BTW has been repeatedly used at the same time in eastern Ukraine against the UAF.

If Russia supplied BM-30s during the Syrian conflict they effectively gave Assad new cluster munitions which he used on civilians
I do wonder where Syria's previously unseen BM-30s which appear last year come into this

The Russian military never does anything without a plan------AND this is the kicker--all Commanders at all levels have to physically sign off on the plan with their signatures.

HERE is the real kicker--even the Syrian military inadvertently confirms that Russians have been in Syria for a lot longer than the western MSM is stating--to fully train a BM30 crew and firing control center--takes up to a full six months and daily firings.

OR as I suspect they are being fired by Russian troops-----

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 11:07 AM

Former US ambassador -Russia is recruiting fighters in eastern Ukraine to deploy to Syria

pic.twitter.com/69SvfLGv86

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 11:10 AM

Social media is finally catching the curve on the WHY for Russian military expansionism into Syria------

THE question is has Obama, Kerry and the entire 700 person NSC?????

Russian strategy: temporarily calm E #Ukraine to avoid West arming Ukr in retaliation for #Syria buildup?

Exact reason for the quietness---

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 11:16 AM

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

We are urging our partners to seriously consolidate efforts in countering the #IS on the basis of international law http://en.mid.ru/en/web/guest/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/1755840 …

I could go into multiple responses to show where this press release is Russian propaganda-----the use of the Russian 6Ds of propaganda--
distort, distract, deflect, dismay designed to create doubt and distrust.

16 September 201515:59

Comment by the Information and Press Department on the actions of the US-led coalition against ISIS

1738-16-09-2015

A year has passed since the United States established a so-called international coalition against ISIS in circumvention of the UN Security Council. On the territory of Iraq, the coalition countries are acting on the invitation of the Iraqi Government, but in Syria they are operating without any coordination with its legitimate authorities. US representatives are making one statement after another about their refusal to cooperate with Damascus in anti-terror operations. Moreover, a number of countries that form the US-led anti-ISIS coalition continue to actively supply, with money and arms, anti-government formations that are fighting against the Syrian army – the main force opposing ISIS on Syrian territory.

During the past year the United States and its allies from over 20 countries that are bombing ISIS positions in Syria and Iraq have substantially built up their forces. The US Middle East-based aircraft, deck aviation and Marine Corps, and more than 80 various allied aircraft, are involved in air operations. According to the US Congress, up to 6,000 foreign instructors, primarily from the United States and also Britain, Germany, Italy and Canada, to name a few, are training fighters of security agencies in Iraq. According to media sources, up to 700 American military specialists are training members of the armed Syrian opposition. Britain, France, Turkey and even Australia have stated and have partially implemented their intention to wage combat operations on Syrian territory without the consent of its Government under the pretext of the right to self-defence.

This raises a natural question: What have the countries, that are so closely keeping track of flights by foreign aircraft, achieved by sending their armed forces to this region?

Regrettably, the coalition’s achievements in the struggle against ISIS appear very modest. Air attacks (over 5,000 air strikes that have officially destroyed 7,655 targets) combined with operations by task forces (for instance, the elimination of ISIS financial manager Abu Sayyaf by a US special operations unit last May) have not stopped terrorist expansion. Militants continue to expand the “caliphate” both in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, the growing discontent with air raids conducted by the coalition, which led to numerous victims among civilian population, is increasing the number of local residents who sympathise with the extremists and want to fight under their banner.

Summing up the results of this year’s activities by the US-led coalition, which involves the world’s strongest military powers, it is hard to avoid a comparison with “the strange war” on the Mannerheim Line in 1939-1940. At that time, the West faced a military disaster because it was not serious enough in rebuffing a very dangerous challenge of the Nazi threat, and tried to redirect it toward the East.

In this context, we are again urging our regional and international partners to seriously consolidate efforts in countering the global terrorist threat on the basis of international law and the key role of the UN Security Council.

BTW--Russia throws the words UNSC and international law around in hopes that it sticks somewhere and people think Russia is a truly law-abiding nation and then they might forget Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

BUT I have to agree with the Russian propaganda when they lumped the Nazi's and the IS into the same PR--both were fascist groupings--BUT notice Russia with it's own fascist trends does not count itself as a member of this group.

EVEN the UN SG stated this week that the entire UNSC and the UN has failed the civil society of Syria -----

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 11:38 AM

Daesh is now targeting those who exile to Europe with various video's like these

pic.twitter.com/a0wrw0fJVh

Actually IS does not like the massive refugee flows to Europe as they accuse Europe of undermining Islam and have a bad effect on the young Muslim children growing up in Europe.

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 11:49 AM

Syrian anti Assad forces are on the attack again after being hit hard with massive artillery shellings and barrel bomb attacks.

FSA seems started a large attack on regime positions in Dahiyat al-Assad western #Aleppo.
http://youtu.be/BiSGz5oZ02g pic.twitter.com/sP12UGPdxL

Footage
Syrian rebels launch "Volcano" rockets on regime-held #Aleppo suburb of al-Assad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiSGz5oZ02g … pic.twitter.com/3HR09zOMG0

Footage
#Duma near #Damascus this morning.
2 heavy rockets from #Assad planes hit the town.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGP6c7rnESg … pic.twitter.com/YgdYcbtNBv

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 12:06 PM

So is IS really that big of a threat to Assad OR are the other anti Assad forces??

Also just how does Russia define the word terrorist in Syria----anything that is anti-Assad!!

Even after recent loses Assad still controls most of Syria's population centers. ISIS - less than 15%. My estimates: pic.twitter.com/1S4BagEHOV

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 01:32 PM

Obama Middle East Priorities:
1 Iran Deal
2 Destruction of ISIS
Which Logically Leads You To
3 Working with Russia on Syria

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 01:33 PM

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/17/us-plans-to-accept-russia-offer-to-join-military-talks-on-syria/

US plans to accept Russia offer to join military talks on Syria

Published September 17, 2015
·Associated Press

WASHINGTON – Amid increasing unease and uncertainty over Russia's intentions, the Obama administration plans to accept an offer from Russia for direct talks on its military buildup in Syria that U.S. officials believe is aimed at propping up Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Seeking answers to myriad questions about the precise reasoning behind Moscow's recent deliveries of material and manpower to a base in northern Syria, U.S. officials said they expect the administration to begin a military-to-military dialogue with Russia in the coming days. The Pentagon will take the lead in the discussions but the exact level, venue and timing have yet to be determined, officials said.

Those details could be announced as early as Thursday, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Secretary of State John Kerry revealed the Russian offer for talks when he told reporters on Wednesday that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had proposed them in a phone call a day earlier. Kerry said he personally thought the idea was a good one, but stressed that the administration was still weighing its merits. Other officials said later that national security adviser Susan Rice had signed off on the talks and that Defense Secretary Ash Carter had agreed.

After their third phone call on the Syria situation since Labor Day weekend, Kerry said Lavrov had proposed a "military-to-military conversation and meeting in order to discuss the issue of precisely what will be done to de-conflict with respect to any potential risks that might be run and have a complete and clear understanding as to the road ahead and what the intentions are."

"You have to have a conversation in order to do that," Kerry said. "It is vital to avoid misunderstandings, miscalculations (and) not to put ourselves in a predicament where we are supposing something and the supposition is wrong."

White House spokesman Josh Earnest, without commenting on specific consultations, said the Obama administration "would welcome constructive Russian support for the efforts of the anti-ISIL (Islamic State extremists) coalition in Iraq and in Syria."

Kerry said Lavrov had told him that Russia was only interested in confronting the threat posed by the Islamic State group in Syria. But Kerry stressed that it remained unclear if that position would change and Russia would mount a defense of Assad, who the U.S. believes must leave power.

"Obviously, there are questions about that," he said. "I am not taking that at face value."

However, Kerry added that if Russia is only focused on the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, then it remains a potential partner in pushing for a political transition in Syria. "If Russia is only focused only on ISIL and if there is a capacity for cooperation ... there still is a way to get a political negotiation and outcome," the secretary said.

Kerry also said he had spoken on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose office announced earlier that he would visit Moscow next week to discuss Syria with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia's military buildup in Syria has perplexed the Obama administration and left it in a quandary as to how to respond. In the afterglow of the Iran nuclear deal, which was hailed by the administration as the kind of diplomacy that can be achieved when Russia and the United States cooperate, U.S. officials had hoped for a change in Russia's position about Syria, potentially even enlisting its support to move Assad out.

Moscow's latest actions, however, have taken many by surprise and further muddied efforts to fight Islamic State militants while trying to promote political transition in Syria.

In recent days Russia has sent about a half-dozen battle tanks and other weaponry -- along with military advisers, technicians, security guards and portable housing units -- to Syria with the apparent goal of setting up an air base near the coastal town of Latakia, a stronghold of the Syrian president.

U.S. officials say Putin's intentions in Syria, particularly in the medium- to long-term, remain a mystery.

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 01:38 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 01:50 PM

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/09/17/will-obama-look-weak-if-he-meets-with-putin/

6:37 am ET
Sep 17, 2015

Think Tank

Will Obama Look Weak If He Meets With Putin?

It looks as though President Barack Obama will sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the United Nations later this month. In a New York Times report Wednesday, journalists Peter Baker and Andrew E. Kramer described the administration’s internal debate about whether to schedule the meeting. Some officials, it seems, worry about making the president look weak and undercutting efforts to isolate Russia. Others insist there is no other way to find out what Moscow’s “supreme leader” thinks. Avoiding him only marginalizes the U.S.

So, what’s the right answer? There is plenty to be said for talking to the other guy when you have a clear and effective policy. That’s an easy call. Engaging adversaries enables you to show them why they should stay out of your way or, perhaps, cooperate. The only risk is that others not in the room—your domestic critics, or partners you’ve been cultivating, or clients unsure of your support—will read a meeting as a sign that you’re wavering and may cut a deal with the bad guys. But as long as your overall policy makes sense, this risk should be manageable. You announce before the meeting that its purpose is to make clear the price your opponent will pay if he doesn’t change course.

This, as I said, is the easy case. But suppose you don’t have much of a policy. In that case, isn’t sitting down with your tormentor another way of advertising your confusion? And won’t it show others—your critics, your partners, your clients—that they shouldn’t count on you?

Sadly, if you don’t know what you’re doing, talking to your adversary may not help much. In dealing with Russia, especially regarding Syria, this administration has sometimes seemed to hope that talk could substitute for policy—that Mr. Putin might want to do Mr. Obama a favor. Secretary of State John Kerry’s trip to Moscow in May 2013 and to Sochi this past spring showed that that’s not how Mr. Putin operates.

In the runup to the U.N. meeting, then, watch for two things: First, does Washington prepare for the encounter by sharpening its policy? As long as the administration’s Syria strategy flounders, Mr. Obama will get no further with Mr. Putin than Mr. Kerry did.

Second, where Washington does have a better story to tell—and its Ukraine policy is working far better than its Syria policy—can the administration put Russia more on the defensive? If President Obama walks into his meeting with Mr. Putin having just announced strong new support for Ukraine, he is far more likely to have a productive conversation.

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 02:38 PM

Syrian Express--Russian naval freighter returns home from Syria----

Russian Navy Alligator class LST, Saratov 150 transits northbound Bosphorus, returning from #Tartus #Syria pic.twitter.com/eoPOYKzauM

Ropucha class like Alexander Otrakovski 031 has a cargo capacity of 450 tons with a usable deck space of 600sqm. Up to 25 APC can embark

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 05:45 PM

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ay/530791.html

Russia Using Syria to Overshadow Ukraine, Analysts Say

By Ivan Nechepurenko

Sep. 15 2015 20:11

The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.

This month, for the first time since 2013, the topic of Russia-Syria has firmly overshadowed that of Russia-Ukraine both on Google Trends and Twitter activity graphs.

Since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014 after mass protests led to a change of government in Kiev, Russia-West relations have been dominated by the ongoing political crisis in Ukraine and the armed conflict in its east.

Western countries have imposed sanctions against Russia and accused it of supporting separatists fighting government troops in eastern Ukraine. Russia insists a peace process in Ukraine can only be achieved if the Kiev government engages with representatives of the self-proclaimed people's republics in the war-torn east.

But as a sweeping refugee crisis has hit Europe, followed by reports that Russia has been establishing a forward operating base in the Syrian Alawite stronghold of Latakia, the Ukraine crisis has faded into the background.

“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst.

“It is clear that for the Kremlin, there isn't a good exit strategy from the conflict [in Ukraine's east]. Syria is a good way to distract attention while the Ukraine situation is frozen,” Oreshkin said in a phone interview.

Changing Trends

On Monday, 16,627 tweets were posted on the topic of Russia and Syria, while only 1,074 tweets mentioned Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis. In previous months, that picture was drastically different, with Ukraine well above Syria in Twitter coverage. The data was acquired via the Topsy Twitter search and analysis service on Tuesday.

Google Trends, a tool that measures the level of public interest in a topic by analyzing search requests, shows a similar picture: So far this month, interest in Russia-Syria has far surpassed interest in Russia-Ukraine.

Looking at media coverage, the same trend becomes evident. While there were 102,000 news stories on the topic of Russia and Ukraine in the past month, 690,000 stories were devoted to the subject of Russia and Syria in the same period, according to data from the Google News search engine.

Russia's pro-Kremlin media has also been shifting its attention away from Ukraine and focusing on Syria, the BBC reported last week.

Two prominent war reporters who were posted in eastern Ukraine have been transferred to Syria: Semyon Pegov, who works for LifeNews, a private TV station widely believed to have links to the security services, and Yevgeny Poddubny, who works for the state-run VGTRK radio and television company, the BBC reported.

“The Kremlin does not want to talk about the issues that the West is worried about, such as Ukraine. So it is looking for something that could change the agenda,” said Vasily Gatov, a visiting fellow at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy.

“So there is an attempt to divert public attention away from Ukraine — Syria is just one of the options,” he said in written comments.

Developments on the Ground

Military activity in the rebel-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine has been substantially downscaled in direct correlation to public interest and media coverage this month.

“We know where Russians and their proxies are still hiding weapons, their tanks and their artillery. For now the order has been given to cease fire, but for how long?” Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko told The Independent newspaper in an interview published Sunday.

Speaking to a number of Ukrainian television stations on Sunday, Poroshenko said that not a single breach of the cease-fire had been recorded in the past two days.

“Ukraine has not had this for 18 long months,” said Poroshenko in the interview, broadcast by 112 Ukraine TV.

On Monday, Poroshenko ordered the postponement of a new wave of army mobilization after the cease-fire in the country's east continued to hold, TASS news agency reported.

Uncertainty Mounts in Syria

Regarding Syria, on the other hand, a slew of reports continue to allege an increased Russian military presence. Two unidentified U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday that Russia has positioned about half a dozen tanks at an airfield in Syria.

“We have seen movement of people and things that would indicate that they plan to use that base there, south of Latakia, as a forward air operating base,” Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis told journalists at a news briefing, as quoted by Reuters.

Russia has insisted that nothing has changed in its military assistance to Syria, which it says is vital to the fight against the Islamic State and other extremist groups in the country. Speaking in Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe on Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin reiterated that stance.

"We are supporting the government of Syria in the fight against terrorist aggression, [we] are offering and will continue to offer it necessary military-technical assistance," Putin said in a speech at a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

"Without the active participation of the Syrian authorities and the military, it would be impossible to expel the terrorists from that country and the region as a whole, and to protect the multi-ethnic and multi-confessional Syrian people from destruction," he said, according to a transcript on the Kremlin's website.

Earlier this month, Putin said that Russia was “looking at various options,” when asked if there was any chance of Russian troops participating in a military operation in Syria as part of a coalition.

Russia is revamping the Latakia airfield in order to make sure it can receive flights from Russia carrying weapons bought by Syria and humanitarian aid, an unidentified representative of the Defense Ministry was cited as telling the Vedomosti business daily Monday.

Syria has already served as an avenue for cooperation between Russia and the West. In 2013, Putin brokered a deal for the destruction of Syria's chemical weapons that prevented U.S. military involvement in the conflict.

The effort was short-lived, however, as it was followed by the Ukraine crisis that erupted just a few months later.

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 06:08 PM

Notice what the Russian FM states here is in direct contradiction to his call of mil to mil discussions and Putin's call for discussions with Obama.

Appears that they are calling US actions in their anti IS fighting as being illegal??????? NUT Russian weapons support to Assad is nothing?????

Typical Russian doublespeak-----

Russia's Lavrov denigrates anti-ISIS coalition, again, stresses it's illegal w/o formal OK from Assad/UNSC http://ria.ru/arab_sy/20150917/1258095009.html …

NOTICE just exactly how Russia is maneuvering Obama into a corner where he must support Assad at all costs--and this is the US foreign policy---working for other superpowers?????

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 06:46 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 06:49 PM

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

#Zakharova: The massive inflow of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa to #Europe is a matter of concern for #Russia

THEN Russia should stop all weapons shipments to Assad and stop Assad from barrel bombing.

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 07:00 PM

Russian Interior Ministry estimates 1800 Russians fighting for IS, 477 criminal cases opened

http://www.ng.ru/news/517572.html … (Rus)

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 07:35 PM

IUCA @IUCAnalysts
#Syria #Analysis
Rebels still in control of the #Homs-#Damascus highway N-E of the capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vSq-bWisAE … pic.twitter.com/HhsUUzcVPA

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 07:39 PM

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/09/17/will-obama-look-weak-if-he-meets-with-putin/

6:37 am ET
Sep 17, 2015

Think Tank

Will Obama Look Weak If He Meets With Putin?

Syrian foreign Ministry has said it is ready to ask the Russian Federation to send troops http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-september-syrian-foreign-ministry-has-said-it-is-ready … via @GazetaRu

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 07:44 PM

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/17/us-plans-to-accept-russia-offer-to-join-military-talks-on-syria/

US plans to accept Russia offer to join military talks on Syria

Published September 17, 2015
·Associated Press

Syrian foreign Ministry has said it is ready to ask the Russian Federation to send troops http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2015/1...id-it-is-ready … via @GazetaRu

SYRIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS WILL ASK RUSSIA FOR SENDING ARMY FIGHTING ALONGSIDE SYRIAN FORCES IF NEED BE -- STATE TV

OUTLAW 09

09-17-2015, 08:32 PM

Syria : Video shows #Damascus rebels in control large underground bunker but no inside vid! http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.592181&lon=36.391568&z=16&m=b … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xwA_7JzECo …

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 05:40 AM

Yup, and here you have his intentions - from that Interfax AVN article you've posted:

Summary: reconstruction/repairs of Bassel Assad IAP, and securing arms deliveries. NO 'military intervention'.

Or, on other words: exactly what your very own gets to hear from Syria too.

Crow Bat---here is your combat ground power flowing in and merging with the Russian elite units and advanced weapon systems---this now is an interesting form non linear warfare invasion.

Here we are seeing a new form of hybrid warfare ie hybrid invasion on top of an hybrid army--BUILT via the experiences gained by the Russian military in eastern Ukraine----

1000 #Iran(ian) Marines Join #Russia(n) Troops in Jablah Base to Fight #Syria(n) Rebels http://www.ibtimes.co.in/syria-1000-iranian-marines-join-russian-troops-jablah-base-fight-syrian-rebels-says-report-646283 … pic.twitter.com/DyPQVFDHhv

CrowBat

09-18-2015, 07:39 AM

Crow Bat then you really do not understand the reorg of the Russian army under they 2020 program nor do you fully understand Russian doctrine and their use of their professional elite army units.I never said I have any kind of clue about Russian military at all, not to talk about any kind of its reorganization. I neither care about it, nor care to understand it: I have so many other things to do, why should I care about this too?

Furthermore, from my POV, 'this vehicle' can be there for whatever purposes: handling GRU - or reporting about local flora and fauna. I'm no US (or any other) intel, I haven't invested anything into Syria, so can't care less about that either (well, at least not before some Sov... erm... Russian Panz... erm... Russian tanks park underneath my window :p ).

But, what I know is: if there would ba a 'serious' Russian military deployment in Syria, I would know about it.

Sounds 'bold'? I guess it does. Sorry, can't help about it. Call it 'life'.

It is lighter, adaptive when it wants to be and agile--in the past Soviet/Russian days they would not have parked a massive boomer with 200 warheads offshore to give emphasis to the military moves they are making.Sorry, I grew up at times when there were two Soviet boomers patrolling up and down Eastern coast CONUS, barely 500 miles away from Washington DC, 24/7. So, I happen not to get upset at anybody parking his boomer in the Eastern Med that easily either.

Fact is: a boomer armed with 200 MIRVs is not only exposed, isolated and sensitive (because of its old, semi-loud design too), but entirely useless in the eastern Med.

That is: at least for Russians. It's very useful for all sorts of sensationalists and scaremongers, of course.

In the Crimea and then eastern Ukraine--Putin has effectively negated the MAD principle--- the balancing aspect of the Cold War.Nope. He 'just' did what contemporary Western 'leaders' were affraid Soviets might do at earlier times: 'do it in small steps', each of which would be 'too small but to provoke a major war'.

At earlier times Westerners were concerned Soviets might do so with, for example, West Berlin. Nowadays it happens to be Crimea, then eastern Ukraine...

CrowBat

09-18-2015, 08:34 AM

Crow Bat--another perfect failure of the billions of dollars spent on the US intel community----they simply were not watching and in my opinion really did not care about Syria--Again: I'm no intel. I just happen to have my own sources, and keep my eyes (and ears) open.

(That said, I do enjoy the advantage to various graduates of Princeton and similar places in not having to change my station as often as possible in order to prop my career: I can monitor specific area for 30+ years without interruptions; I'm far from 'knowing everything 100%', but still better than most of 'others'...)

And there is no 'failure': small Russian contingents are present since mid-2011. Nothing new about that.

Some of those that are present are instructors, others have other duties. Now there is a small contingent in Tartous, showing flag too. And now they are 'more imporant' - because the IRGC-QF got so fed up of Assad's idiotic generals, that it withdrew its forces from all battlefields in northern and central Syria back o 'fortress Damascus'...

But what you - and most of other 'interested observers' - neither know nor understand is the very nature of relations between Damascus and Moscow. Damascus was never, and is never going to be a 'classic Soviet/Russian client'. While yes, Soviets were interested in politically influencing Syria within the context of the Cold War, Syrians were always only interested in Soviet arms, no political meddling or else. It's not only that times when 'Soviets' could influence any affairs there (say: mid-1960s) are long since over (they were definitely over as soon as Assad Sr. rose to power, in 1970; he was a fierce anti-Communist), but even nowadays Putin actually has no say in Damascus.

Means: all the Russian babbling about 'long-lasting friendship', about Moscow's agreement to replace Assad etc - and whatever else is just a typical Russian illusion of grandeur. Putin can negotiate Assad's removal as much as he likes: Assad is not gonna go without Iranian consent.

More importantly: Moscow insists that Damascus owes it about US$20 billion. Damascus insists NOT to pay back a single cent of this. Reason: majority of Soviet credits were due for obsolete weapons systems that dismally failed in different wars with Israel (perfectly logical, if I'm to ask, and absolute truth too).

All through the 1990s and 2000s Moscow was doing whatever was possible to sell something to Damascus. Delegations were visiting Syria, the V-VS even flew in a few of its Su-27s (indeed, giant poster of two Su-30s was donated to the SyAAF, and this hung over the entrance to the SyAAF HQ for much of mid-2000s)...commercial businesses attempted to make deals, sign contracts for refineries and pipelines etc... and this despite an apparent 'boom' of Syrian economy, actually financed by smuggling of Iraqi oil while Saddam was still in power (this became so highly profitable, it even enabled some commercial extraction of Syrian oil, but that's another story).

Eventually, all of Russian efforts failed. Finaly, after years of Moscow failing to sell anything to Damascus, Putin agreed with Assad to write off a part of that debt, few years ago (can't recall the date but it was 2-3 years before the outbreak of the war, or so). What was left was 'only' something like US$15 billion. After that agreement Russians expected Assad to start shopping big style. Especially MIG RSK was eager to secure orders for MiG-29s and MiG-31 - because it botched up, and oh so badly, in Algeria.* So much so, it started paying various Russian media to report correspondingly - in turn causing various sensationalists to start reporting about some supposed MiG-31 deliveries...

But, even then, Syrians didn't do what the Russians expected. Yes, they've purchased (with Iranian sponsoring) a few SA-11/17s and SA-22s, to better protect Assad's backside from regular Israeli air strikes that were hitting various spots around the country. Otherwise, they 'only' had their Mi-25s and Su-24s overhauled in Russia, in 2009-2011 period. On the contrary: the 'newest' MiGs Syria obtained were 33 second-hand MiG-23MLs and UMs they've purchased from Belarus, in 2008 (you can see an entire row of them at Google Earth's photos of Nayrab AB/Aleppo IAP; if you're too lazy to do so, see attachment for my article on this topic, published in September 2009 in German mag Fliegerrevue).

Then the war began, and from time to time Damascus placed few small orders in Moscow - like for specific fire-arms, ammo, body armour, NVGs etc. Even all of this had to be paid for by Tehran, because Damascus continued to refuse paying anything at all (if they would pay a single buck, Russians would confiscate this 'to cover old debts' and demand additional payments). There were few exceptions. Most apparent of these were few combat engineer vehicles, BM-27 MRLS', BTR-80s: few of each of these were something like 'donated' by Moscow, to show 'good will'. The least apparent was Syrian order for P-800 Onyx anti-ship missile system for coastal defence. Russians eagerly delivered a few of these back in 2011 - only to see them near-instantly destroyed by another Israeli air strike before Syrians could even properly 'park' them in one of their bases...

So, my info is that the current 'Russian deployment' to Syria is related to all of this: that Russians remain keen (and they are always keen to make bucks and sell whatever they can), but that there is a necessity to secure deliveries in question - or Syrians are not going to pay (as so often). That's 'why' additional SA-22s, that's why 'Russian troops in Tartous'. Additional SA-22s are necessary to cover that port (or Lattakia, as necessary), then until now Syrian SA-22s were used for defence of NW Damascus only...while troops are there as an additional deterent for the Israelis (i.e. delivering the 'don't you dare bombing Syria: you might kill one of our boys' message).

Of course, if the Russians can also put some of their new arms (like UAVs) to 'serious test', or get good PR by some small-scale 'fighthing Jihadists in Syria' - even better.

And that's about it. Namely, by all of talking about this 'maskirovka-style Russian military intervention in Syria', it seems that everybody is forgetting one crucial aspect: that of supplies.

Damascus is unable to support even its own military (no matter how small this meanwhile is), not to talk about some Russian contingent. Without billions of aid from Tehran (approx US$1-1,5 billon - a month!) it would have gone bankrupt already back in November 2011. Because it's overspending itself in Syria, Tehran nearly went bankrupt too, early the last year. What saved it was Daesh's spread through Iraq, which a) prompted Baghdad to call for help (and start ordering large shipments of Iranian arms), and b) prompted DC to grant permission to China to lend money to Baghdad - and Tehran...

...while Moscow a) not only lacks money for any kind of a large-scale intervention but b) is also logistically unable to keep anything but a battalion-sized deployment in Syria properly supplied.

No bucks, no Buck Rodgers, hun. And with this, all further discussions in this regards are simply surplus.

********

*MiG delivered 20-years old MiG-29s as 'brand new', nearly causing Algerians to cancell a major arms deal including deliveries of Su-30s, Yak-130s, S-300s etc. worth about US$5 billion (well, actually, Algerians already cancelled that contract, also because Sukhoi was 2 years late with deliveries of Su-30s, while MIG was nowhere in sight with deliveries of Yak-130s... but Roso then saved the situation through rushing Su-30s and S-300s to Algeria)...

********
********

EDIT: original attachment was too large for upload and didn't show. Perhaps admin would be so kind to increase my upload quota...?

CrowBat

09-18-2015, 09:02 AM

Crow Bat--reference the Russian marine infantry unit in Syria---check his Russian Facebook (VK) entries---

The 810th Brigade's Marines in the Fields of Donbas: https://en.informnapalm.org/5314-the-810th-brigade-s-marines-in-the-fields-of-donbas/ … pic.twitter.com/Lo1t2kxXOj

As you know lately the focus shifted from the Russian servicemen (the 810th brigade’s marines, in particular) participation in the war in Ukraine on their combat missions in Syria. It may happen that Aleksandr Sokolenko will visit that flash point as well. We are looking forward for new photo and video reports of this ‘soldier of fortune’ fixing Russia’s traces of crime.
'Looking forward' too - and drinking tchay.... :D

BTW, following your advice, I began reading this article with such a bombastic title 1000 Iranian Marines Join Russian Troops...and blah, blah, blah... (http://www.ibtimes.co.in/syria-1000-iranian-marines-join-russian-troops-jablah-base-fight-syrian-rebels-says-report-646283)

At least 1,000 Iranian marines have reached Syria and joined the Russian forces to fight the Syrian rebels, a Jerusalem-based military intelligence website has reported.

DEBKAfile...

Stopped reading: DEBKA = nonsense.

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 10:16 AM

Crow Bat---here is your combat ground power flowing in and merging with the Russian elite units and advanced weapon systems---this now is an interesting form non linear warfare invasion.

Here we are seeing a new form of hybrid warfare ie hybrid invasion on top of an hybrid army--BUILT via the experiences gained by the Russian military in eastern Ukraine----

1000 #Iran(ian) Marines Join #Russia(n) Troops in Jablah Base to Fight #Syria(n) Rebels http://www.ibtimes.co.in/syria-1000-iranian-marines-join-russian-troops-jablah-base-fight-syrian-rebels-says-report-646283 … pic.twitter.com/DyPQVFDHhv

Russia will consider #Syria’s request to send troops if Damascus asks http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2015/18-september-russia-will-consider-syrias-request-to-send … via @Conflicts

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 10:29 AM

Russia is hedging their math again--yesterday they released the fgure of 1800 Russian Islamists fighting for IS and NOW today 2400--just what is the exact number.

Seems they would be better off fighting them inside Russian than mounting an military expedition to Syria to fight them.

Moscow says around 2,400 #Russians fighting for ISIS, @ReutersWorld reports. A background on where some come from: http://www.globalpost.com/article/6621137/2015/07/24/russia-islamic-state …

Appears that even the various Russian security services cannot figure out just how many have left and are fighting with IS---

So Russia's Interior Ministry says ~1800 Russian citizens fighting for IS, FSB says ~2400 (per @euronews). Who knows the real number? Nobody

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 10:41 AM

"70 UK jihadists killed in Syria/Iraq" 40% higher than anyone else has evidenced http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article4560510.ece … pic.twitter.com/yaFqpFeezY

Man is the IS weaponization of information campaign now in full swing---they have not been this active in literally months----

ISIS release 9 videos in 25 hours on the refugee crisis "Islamaphobia in Europe" via @pieternanninga pic.twitter.com/9shHczjeoO

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 10:54 AM

Interesting comment below about Syrian refugees----

Refugees come mainly from densely populated areas fought over by rebels & gov, not ISIS territories, reports @LizSly http://wapo.st/1KmJpyq

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 11:19 AM

What is extremely interesting is that the western mainstream media --yes even WSJ have basically done little to no reporting on the barrel bomb air campaing being waged by Assad against Sunni civilians NOT military targets FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS..

ANY and ALL such information has been virtually ignored by MSM BUT not the social media which has been reporting on it from the very beginning.

Seems that it takes refugee migrations across Europe to get the attention of MSM to ask the question WHY??????

Barrel bombs are the single biggest contributor to displacement in Syria now" http://on.wsj.com/1iyCg41 pic.twitter.com/v5u78Fs6u1

AND MSM and the Obama WH has largely as well totally ignored the combination of barrel bombs and chlorine gas attacks by Assad on Sunni civilians--wonder why??????

Some pundits are now saying we need a no fly zone BUT wait--with the arrival into Syria of the Russian Air Defense weapon systems--that will not happen anytime soon.

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 11:29 AM

https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/09/18/russian-soldiers-reportedly-refuse-secret-syria-deployment

Russian soldiers reportedly refuse secret Syria deployment

3:22, 18 September 2015 Gazeta.ru

A group of Russian soldiers who are serving in the army on military contracts (as opposed to draftees) have reportedly refused to be deployed in Latakia, Syria.

Officials from Russia's Eastern Command have denied this report, saying its training exercises are limited to Russian soil. Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said earlier today that the Kremlin has no knowledge of the situation.

A lieutenant who identified himself as Alexei N. told the Russian news website Gazeta.ru that commanders selected 20 of the best-trained soldiers and told them that they would be deployed to a hot region. They were warned that the climate would be very different from what they were used to and that there would be poisonous animals at the new place, but the specific region was not named. The group was first sent to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. At first, the soldiers assumed they were being sent to the east of Ukraine, but later they found out they would be deployed in Syria.

On September 16, a General Staff representative dressed in civilian clothing told the group that a secret decree stipulates that they would be sent to Latakia and that they may have to participate in fighting.

The group was due to be shipped off on September 17, but instead they appealed to the Military Prosecutor’s Office, and the deployment was delayed. Several of the soldiers have already submitted their letters of resignation from the army.

“Registrations were being taken off the technical equipment. We were told about the consolidation of an air base in Syria,” said another contractor. “One of the people at the loading station at the port told us that our men have been there for four months already.”

Russia is currently training Syrian soldiers in accordance with a weapons trade deal between the two countries. Officials have confirmed that Russian trainers have been sent to Syria. Russia also operates a military base in Tartus, and in the past Russian troops have been stationed at Latakia.

Earlier, Stratfor revealed satellite images showing construction work in Latakia. According to some sources, Russian tanks and weapons are stationed there.

On September 16, the Russian military high command admitted that Moscow might construct an air force base in Syria.

On September 18, Syria’s Foreign Ministry announced on television that Syria might appeal to Russia to bring in troops. He said that Russian troops are not actively partaking in the armed conflict in Syria at the moment.

Crow Bat--pay close attention to the comment from the Russian port worker-----Russian troops have been in Syria for four months..............

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 12:20 PM

'Looking forward' too - and drinking tchay.... :D

BTW, following your advice, I began reading this article with such a bombastic title 1000 Iranian Marines Join Russian Troops...and blah, blah, blah... (http://www.ibtimes.co.in/syria-1000-iranian-marines-join-russian-troops-jablah-base-fight-syrian-rebels-says-report-646283)

Stopped reading: DEBKA = nonsense.

You do realize that the identified armored comms vehicle is also used to provide comms with forward based units--especially small GRU/Spetsnaz and or airborne recon units???/

Exclusive
"Small Ivan' unit" is on the ground around Zabadani. Other Russian units r in different areas in #Syria. More in my take tomorrow.

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 12:25 PM

I never said I have any kind of clue about Russian military at all, not to talk about any kind of its reorganization. I neither care about it, nor care to understand it: I have so many other things to do, why should I care about this too?

Furthermore, from my POV, 'this vehicle' can be there for whatever purposes: handling GRU - or reporting about local flora and fauna. I'm no US (or any other) intel, I haven't invested anything into Syria, so can't care less about that either (well, at least not before some Sov... erm... Russian Panz... erm... Russian tanks park underneath my window :p ).

But, what I know is: if there would ba a 'serious' Russian military deployment in Syria, I would know about it.

Sounds 'bold'? I guess it does. Sorry, can't help about it. Call it 'life'.

Sorry, I grew up at times when there were two Soviet boomers patrolling up and down Eastern coast CONUS, barely 500 miles away from Washington DC, 24/7. So, I happen not to get upset at anybody parking his boomer in the Eastern Med that easily either.

Fact is: a boomer armed with 200 MIRVs is not only exposed, isolated and sensitive (because of its old, semi-loud design too), but entirely useless in the eastern Med.

That is: at least for Russians. It's very useful for all sorts of sensationalists and scaremongers, of course.

Nope. He 'just' did what contemporary Western 'leaders' were affraid Soviets might do at earlier times: 'do it in small steps', each of which would be 'too small but to provoke a major war'.

At earlier times Westerners were concerned Soviets might do so with, for example, West Berlin. Nowadays it happens to be Crimea, then eastern Ukraine...

It is not whether it is semi loud, old, aging, to big, to little or of no use in the Med--BUT does it send a clear and concise message- I will use it if I have to.

Check the Ukrainian events with the Russia snap military exercises and how he positions the tactical nuke capable SS21s when he demands something from the West or the Ukraine.

Putin has perfected the art of the nuclear threat--something the West totally forgot in 1991.

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 01:43 PM

OK I finally give up--never thought I would see a US President adopt the same denial process as Putin--meaning "it ain't me it is the others" approach to anything--in this case there is no foreign policy whatsoever so blaming someone, something, anything is down right disingenuous.

BTW he did this same drill for the Iran Deal--"if you do not sign it --we are going to war"--again totally disingenuous for a sitting President with a Harvard degree.

OR even better from 2013---"we will judge Putin on his actions not his words" AND look what it got the Ukraine for civilian and military loses over the last year.

As the President of the US stand up for something and openly admit the buck stops with me instead of blaming everyone else for your own failures and mistakes--THAT is the problem when one is far more worried about one' own legacy than the world's civil societies--that is what the Nobel Peace Prize stands for --concern for others--in this case it is the concern of the President's own legacy and no one else.

Obama---- and I have mentioned it a dozen or more times here in SWJ is the weakest President with the weakest NSC--all 700 of them-with the weakest DNI we have had in over now going on 60 plus years--no strategy for anything, no foreign policy anyone can recognize AND at the same time a Nobel Peace Prize winner--for what I am not sure??

His indecision, blaming others and absolutely non responses to virtually anything has caused major damage to any US creditability remaining in this world-BUT I do not think he even sees that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/18/world/finger-pointing-but-few-answers-...

Finger-Pointing, but Few Answers, After a Syria Solution Fails

By PETER BAKER

SEPT. 17, 2015

President Obama in Washington on Wednesday. White House aides said Mr. Obama had always been skeptical about training Syrian rebels. Credit Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press

WASHINGTON — By any measure, President Obama’s effort to train a Syrian opposition army to fight the Islamic State on the ground has been an abysmal failure. The military acknowledged this week that just four or five American-trained fighters are actually fighting.

But the White House says it is not to blame. The finger, it says, should be not at Mr. Obama but at those who pressed him to attempt training Syrian rebels in the first place — a group that, in addition to congressional Republicans, happened to include former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

President Obama spoke with President Vladimir V. Putin at a summit meeting in Beijing in November. The two leaders have had a few such glancing encounters, but no formal sit-down sessions over the past year or so.

At briefings this week after the disclosure of the paltry results, Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, repeatedly noted that Mr. Obama always had been a skeptic of training Syrian rebels. The military was correct in concluding that “this was a more difficult endeavor than we assumed and that we need to make some changes to that program,” Mr. Earnest said. “But I think it’s also time for our critics to ‘fess up in this regard as well. They were wrong.”

In effect, Mr. Obama is arguing that he reluctantly went along with those who said it was the way to combat the Islamic State, but that he never wanted to do it and has now has been vindicated in his original judgment. The I-told-you-so argument, of course, assumes that the idea of training rebels itself was flawed and not that it was started too late and executed ineffectively, as critics maintain.

Either way, it underscored White House sensitivities about the widening Syrian catastrophe. With more than 200,000 killed in the civil war, a wave of refugees flooding into Europe, and Russia now flying in arms and troops, the president finds himself with a geopolitical and humanitarian mess that will most likely not be settled before he leaves office in 16 months.

Mr. Obama has long considered Syria a quagmire that defies American solutions, and aides are hoping to keep him from being held responsible for something that, they argue, he never really had the power to fix. But with images of drowned children and Russian tanks, the president has come under increasing fire from multiple directions.

The Russians accuse him of making the crisis worse by opposing the autocratic government of President Bashar al-Assad in its fight against terrorists like the Islamic State, also called ISIS or ISIL. Republicans accuse him of passivity and fecklessness, of sitting back while the conflict spread across the region.

But there is no consensus among critics about what should be done. During back-to-back presidential debates on Wednesday night, Republican candidates were divided between those advocating more American involvement and those suggesting stepping back and letting the Syrians fight it out themselves.

“I openly and repeatedly warned that if we did not find moderate elements on the ground that we could equip and arm, that void would be filled by radical jihadists,” Senator Marco Rubio of Florida said. “Well, the president didn’t listen, the administration didn’t follow through and that’s exactly what happened. That is why ISIS grew.”

Donald J. Trump, the businessman, and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky went the other direction, embracing disengagement. “Syria’s a mess,” Mr. Trump said. “Why are we fighting ISIS in Syria? Let them fight each other and pick up the remnants.”

Mr. Paul added, “Sometimes both sides of the civil war are evil, and sometimes intervention makes us less safe.”

The idea of bolstering Syrian rebels was debated from the early days of the civil war, which started in 2011. Mrs. Clinton, along with David H. Petraeus, then the C.I.A. director, and Leon E. Panetta, then the defense secretary, supported arming opposition forces, but the president worried about deep entanglement in someone else’s war after the bloody experience in Iraq.

In 2014, however, after the Islamic State had swept through parts of Syria and Iraq, Mr. Obama reversed course and initiated a $500 million program to train and arm rebels who had been vetted and were told to fight the Islamic State, not Mr. Assad’s government.

The program was financed last December and started in May with the goal of training 5,400 in the first year, but military officials said only 100 to 120 had actually been trained. The first 54 graduates suffered a devastating attack by a Qaeda affiliate in July, forcing the Pentagon to draw up plans to revamp the program by dropping larger numbers of fighters into safer parts of Syria.

Appearing at a Senate hearing on Wednesday, Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, head of the United States Central Command, conceded that only four or five trained rebels were actually fighting now.

“We have to acknowledge that this is a total failure,” Senator Jeff Sessions, Republican of Alabama, said in response. “It’s just a failure. I wish it weren’t so, but that’s the fact. It’s time to — way past time to react to that failure.”

Military officials said the few trained rebels might still prove useful in specific roles, like calling in American airstrikes. But the military has had better results from working with Kurdish forces who have stepped up to fill the place of American-trained Syrians on the ground, first at Sinjar, then at Kobani and most recently in the stretch of Syria south of the Turkish border from the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border.

The White House all but washed its hands of the training program after General Austin’s testimony.

“It is true that we have found this to be a difficult challenge,” Mr. Earnest said. “But it is also true that many of our critics had proposed this specific option as essentially the cure-all for all of the policy challenges that we’re facing in Syria right now. That is not something that this administration ever believed, but it is something that our critics will have to answer for.”

Some of those critics said the program failed because it was delayed and limited. “The White House plan is two-plus years late and fundamentally flawed because it restricts volunteers from fighting against Assad, which is their priority objective,” said Gen. Jack Keane, a retired Army vice chief of staff.

Some Syrian rebels who asked for American arms in 2011 and 2012 eventually gave up and allied themselves with more radical groups, analysts said, leaving fewer fighters who were friendly to the United States. “The reason it failed is because we got the politics wrong,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Ryan C. Crocker, a retired career diplomat who was an ambassador to Afghanistan under Mr. Obama, said the president was right to think a train-and-arm program would not work. But the president, Mr. Crocker added, should have either continued to resist it or at least taken ownership of it rather than blame others for its failure.

“How un-presidential that sounds — ‘We didn’t want to do it, we thought it was unsound but you made us do it,’ ” said Mr. Crocker, now dean of the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. “It’s just indicative of their whole approach to Syria, which is not to have a policy. This is the worst thing they could say.”

BLUF--I think I could find third year polisci students who could make sound decisions and that do not need a 700 person NSC to help them or a DNI for that matter who is more interested in twisting intelligence to fit his and or the President's needs.

No policy for Syria---come on Mr. President you are literally embarrassing me in front of my German friends.

CrowBat

09-18-2015, 01:52 PM

Crow Bat--pay close attention to the comment from the Russian port worker-----Russian troops have been in Syria for four months..............Yeah. Four of them are around since... early 2000s.

Now these four are guarded by a motorized company. True 'invasion' there, right? ;)

You do realize that the identified armored comms vehicle is also used to provide comms with forward based units--especially small GRU/Spetsnaz and or airborne recon units???A GRU HQ in Lattakia, yes (the same one that was cashing from the business of transshipping Libyan Islamists to Iraq, back in the mid-2000s, and that is now probably cashing from the business of transshipping Chechen and Dagestani Islamists to Iraq and Syria).

And? Would you like to say the US Embassy in Damascus didn't use to have a CIA representative, nor any kind of advanced comms...?

Please, be so kind to finally answer one of my questions. Especially this one would be important to me: perhaps there was a US invasion of Syria already, and I overslept it or something else...

It is not whether it is semi loud, old, aging, to big, to little or of no use in the Med--BUT does it send a clear and concise message- I will use it if I have to.But sure... :cool:

Keep in mind: whatever Putin babbles about nukes etc, he knows he's going to be the first to smoke if trying something. Plus, that boomber has at least two super-sillent tails (if not more). Say: at least one 688I, perhaps even a Virginia class, and another where squids are speaking French, or have strong Scotish accent...

Her comms are permanently monitored too, and she's smoke the moment Putin tells her skipper to raise covers of launching tubes and farth...

Of course, we're going to read about this only in about 40 years from now (or never, if Brits and French are involved), but that's a 'routine' for specific navies already since nearly 70 years, so 'nothing new' either.

Check the Ukrainian events with the Russia snap military exercises and how he positions the tactical nuke capable SS21s when he demands something from the West or the Ukraine.'Positioning' and 'using' them are about 50 light years apart.

Of course, if somebody has weak nerves, he/she might get impressed by SS-21s too...

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 01:59 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 02:24 PM

Footage
Turkmen #FSA brigade near #Aleppo now with the Metis ATGM vs. #Assad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXm_CTmyNFo …
pic.twitter.com/PYrzjAulPT

Footage
Death and destruction after another #Assad regime terror attack in #Aleppo today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbtr8tE8QPo … pic.twitter.com/Zec0rX2PyN

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 02:25 PM

Obama & the Europeans can't work out what to do as #Putin pours #Russia|n troops into #Syria

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11873813/In-Syria-Vladimir-Putin-is-the-arsonist-playing-fireman.html … pic.twitter.com/eWpUr0eK5J

There is an old saying--led, follow, or simply get out of the way--if the Europeans cannot decide then Obama must led and they might not like it but they will follow him---as the US is still the 70% provider to NATO-----but he simply is not a leader.

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 02:38 PM

Now Obama and Kerry completely retreat from their foreign policy decision that Assad must go--come on that flies in the face of KSA, UAE, Qatar, and Turkey demands.

It now appears as if the US is actually supporting the Iranian IRGC and Iranian hegemony in Syria.

U.S. to Begin Military Talks With Russia on Syria

By MICHAEL R. GORDON
SEPT. 18, 2015

LONDON — Secretary of State John Kerry said on Friday that the United States was prepared to engage in military-to-military talks with Russia concerning Syria.

“The president believes that a military-to-military conversation is an important next step,” Mr. Kerry said, “and I think, hopefully, it will take place very shortly.”

The initial purpose of the talks with Russia, Mr. Kerry said, will be to help “define some of the different options that are available to us as we consider next steps in Syria.”

Mr. Kerry said that the Obama administration would not change its basic goals in Syria: The defeat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, and a political solution for the conflict there.

But though the administration has long said that President Bashar al-Assad must go for there to be a durable solution to the Syria crisis, Mr. Kerry seemed on Friday to allow for the possibility that Mr. Assad might remain in power in the short term. Mr. Assad has had Russia’s backing throughout the conflict.

THIS is exactly the Putin agenda--nothing less nothing more--this is not US foreign policy at work but Putin's own FP dictated to the US via a weak President.

“Our focus remains on destroying ISIL and also on a political settlement with respect to Syria, which we believe cannot be achieved with a long-term presence of Assad,” Mr. Kerry said. “But we’re looking for ways in which to try to find a common ground. Clearly, if you’re going to have a political settlement, which we have always argued is the best and only way to resolve Syria, you need to have conversations with people, and you need to find a common ground.”

Mr. Kerry made his remarks in London at the start of a meeting with Abdullah bin Zayed, the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates. Mr. Kerry also plans to meet on Saturday with the British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, and then will travel to Germany on Sunday for discussions focused mainly on the Syria crisis and the refugee situation in Europe.

Russia has been stepping up its support for Mr. Assad in recent weeks, including deployment of weapons and personnel to an airfield near Latakia, Syria. With Mr. Kerry’s comments on Friday, the Obama administration’s position on the Russian steps has shifted, from objecting vociferously to trying to manage events.

On Sept. 5, Mr. Kerry warned Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, that the Kremlin should not expand its military support for the Syrian government. The Russian buildup, Mr. Kerry said in a telephone conversation with Mr. Lavrov, “could further escalate the conflict” and might even “risk confrontation” with the American-led coalition that is conducting airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria, according to a State Department account of the call.

The United States also sought to impede the Russian buildup. Bulgaria closed its airspace to Russian transport planes at the request of the United States. Iraq, however, did not take any action, which has allowed the Russians to keep delivering weapons and equipment to Syria.

Russia made the next diplomatic move. Seeking to rebut Mr. Kerry’s assertion that the Russian deployment could fuel the Syrian conflict, Mr. Lavrov said last week that the Russian military was prepared to coordinate with the Pentagon to avoid “unintended incidents.” He repeated the offer for military-to-military talks in a telephone conversation with Mr. Kerry on Tuesday.

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 08:47 PM

Second confirmation of Russian troops in Hama in three days--

Russia(n) troops in #Syria deployed in #Hama app 60 miles from #Latakia http://sh.st/v5RfQ pic.twitter.com/OTkWzMIcof

Best detail in the video of Russian troops allegedly in #Latakia? the AK pic.twitter.com/2ap915i5sb

Agence France-Presse ✔ @AFP
#BREAKING Four Russian fighter jets deployed in Syria, Pentagon says

In #Ukraine, they fought against anti-#Putin gov't, in #Syria they fight for pro-Putin gov't. Self-explanatory. pic.twitter.com/AmSfI5YHyL
More Russian military selfies in Syria--potentially Spetsnaz

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 08:55 PM

Assad's losing, needs urgent support. Putin knows from Ukraine if he deepens involvemt in Syria, US likely to do zip https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/16/does-putin-russia-plan-for-syria-military-escalation/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 09:02 PM

Syria - a Photo reportedly of a #Russian Sukhoi Su-30 at Bassel Al-Assad International Airport in #Latakia pic.twitter.com/rkqONTznUM

The rebel alliance doesn't have any aircraft so if they show up in Syria it is to stop Israeli flights near Hez-B

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 09:13 PM

Syria Jaish al Islam launch assault on #Damascus International Airport & destroyed first tank

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 09:14 PM

Russia build-up in #Syria "significant"-1st major expeditionary force deployment outside fmr Soviet space since Afghanistan-intel official

What is interesting is that this General was retired in 2012 in a way that did not make sense in 2012 ==== he had been reluctant to hold the Atlas Vision Russian US peacekeeping exercise in 2012 for the reasons below---seems he was right in 2012.

Ret. Gen. Hertling: “We were beating the drum of #Russia in 2010 & we were told ‘You are still in the Cold War’"

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 09:34 PM

Applies to both the Ukraine and Syria----Well worth really worth reading -

Protraction: A 21st Century Flavor of Deterrence

by Octavian Manea

SWJ Journal Article | September 11, 2015 - 8:49am

Interview with Jim Thomas (CSBA) conducted by Octavian Manea

Jim Thomas is Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA). He served for thirteen years in a variety of policy, planning and resource analysis posts in the Department of Defense, culminating in his dual appointment as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Resources and Plans and Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy. In these capacities, he was responsible for the development of defense strategy, conventional force planning, resource assessment, and the oversight of war plans. He spearheaded the 2005-2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), and was the principal author of the QDR report to Congress.

During the last sequences of the Cold War, the US and NATO emphasized new capabilities and new operational concepts – Assault Breaker, Air Land Battle, Follow-On Forces Attack. What role did these elements have in changing Soviet perceptions about the military balance, including restoring a credible deterrence on the NATO’s Central Front?

Four things stand out as contributing to allied success in influencing the military balance in the early 1980s.

The first and probably the most important was political: allied solidarity. The Alliance successfully deployed highly controversial systems like Pershing 2 to force the Soviet Union back to the negotiating table on intermediate nuclear forces. Showing the alliance solidarity surprised the Soviet leaders and made the situation more difficult for them. Soviet leaders had high hopes that peace movements in Western Europe would scuttle any such deal and they were dead wrong.

The second is financial: beginning in the last year of the Carter Administration and continuing into, and intensifying during the Reagan Administration, decisions were taken to increase military spending. The so-called Reagan rearmament began and continued throughout the 1980s as an effort to outspend the Warsaw Pact forces.

The third is the development of new operational concepts, the American Air Land Battle concept and NATO’s complementary Follow-On Forces Attack, which emphasized being able to hold at risk second echelon forces, to “look deep and shoot deep.”

And that leads to the fourth element: technology. A DARPA initiative called Assault Breaker that was designed to harness advanced technologies that would allow for the implementation of Air Land Battle. It was the R&D centerpiece of a new technological investment strategy and the second offset strategy launched by Harold Brown and Bill Perry during the Carter Administration focusing on three technological areas: precision warfare, low observable aircraft, and the ability to use micro-processors to create the datalinks between sensors, controllers and shooters. Assault Breaker helped to spur development of new airborne sensors, networking, stealthy strike aircraft, and precision guided munitions.

All these trends were observed in Moscow. In 1984, Marshal Ogarkov, the chief of the Soviet General Staff, acknowledged that the so-called reconnaissance strike complex was emerging and that it offered a new revolution in military affairs beyond the nuclear revolution in which conventional weaponry with precision guidance could assume some roles that were previously monopolized by nuclear forces. He was also very pessimistic about the ability of the Soviet military and its defense industry to keep pace with these developments. This military pessimism converged with also changing political currents in Moscow. It wasn’t a decisive factor, but I think it contributed to the decisions made by the Soviet political leadership in the late 1980s to seek a better relationship with the West and try to reduce military competition, which increasingly was seen as a losing proposition.

How do Russia’s contemporary A2/AD capabilities change the security landscape in Europe?

First, Russia has some very capable air and sea denial systems. Russia’s ability not only to protect its own airspace but also to deny the use of airspace over the territory of NATO frontline states in a crisis or conflict has improved dramatically. This poses real problems to the Alliance especially if NATO continues to maintain a defense in depth posture with only lightly defended frontline states.

Second, since the end of the Cold War and especially since the NATO-Russia Founding Act and the adoption of the so called 3 No’s [“no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members”], the alliance relied on expeditionary, so-called rapid reaction forces that in a crisis or conflict would be dispatched from the more Western countries of NATO to reinforce the Eastern frontline states. But in the presence of advanced Russian air and sea denial systems this may be very difficult. In a crisis it may be in fact destabilizing to deploy NATO forces eastwards and in conflict it could be even suicidal as transport aircraft and ships, not to mention receiving ports and airbases would be vulnerable to Russian surface-to-air, anti-ship and land-attack missiles.

Third, there is this intermingling of anti-access/area denial capabilities that can essentially check conventional power-projection by other traditional militaries to reinforce frontline allies and at the same time this greater emphasis on non-linear/sub-conventional operations as emphasized by Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff. These two types of endeavors really work hand in glove. It is this non-linear warfare area where NATO has been quite slow in terms of both defense (how it addresses these threats) as well as how it too might opportunistically exploit these similar approaches. The same can be said when it comes to A2/AD: how can the frontline states emulate or mimic some of the A2/AD approaches others are adopting to create an effective bear trap. And NATO countries also need to rethink the so called 3 NOs. It may be past time to return to a forward defense posture and permanently station US and other allied forces on the territory of the frontline states. We shouldn’t wait until the next crisis to move in this direction.

Is it accidental that revisionist powers in the Middle East, Far East and Europe are projecting their anti-status-quo interests at a time when they are feeling more confident in their own A2/AD capabilities and their ability to keep at bay traditional power projection?

Definitionally, the intention of a revisionist power is to challenge the status-quo and try to maximize its power and expand its sphere of influence. The character of revisionism is different across the three regions. Many in Europe were surprised by Putin’s annexation of Crimea because they took for granted the borders that were established at the end of the Cold War and that were perceived as indisputable as opposed to the situations in Middle East or maritime Asia.

All these revisionist powers appear less hesitant about employing irregular operations as a surrogate or as a complement to traditional military power projection. Especially when confronting other great powers, the ambiguous nature of irregular actions undertaken not by uniform soldiers, but by fishermen, by civilian protesters or by “little green men” offers a more insidious form of power projection.

Is this an incentivize for a revisionist power that had the intent, and now increasingly the capabilities and the ability, to wage low cost irregular warfare campaigns under an A2/AD umbrella?

Yes, that appears to be the case. Anti-access/area denial at the conventional level buys time and space for revisionist powers to conduct salami-slicing creeping aggression or coercion underneath whether it is in Crimea, in East China Sea, or in the future in the Middle East. Anti-access capabilities can enable conventional or unconventional forms of power projection by providing the umbrella to protect them from conventional counter-attacks especially during movements.

Rather than seeing the irregular gambit as a form of warfare distinct from conventional warfare, the revisionist powers appear to integrate these concepts in ways that combine different approaches. They are able to combine anti-access and area-denial, conventional capabilities with these irregular and sub-conventional capabilities in very effective combinations. These combinations could be differentially applied depending on the circumstances and their specific objectives at any time whether it is in Georgia, Ukraine or perhaps the Baltics or Moldova in the future. The anti-access/area-denial capabilities allow them to hold off conventional military forces and create an umbrella underneath which they can use their sub-conventional capabilities.

Do nuclear weapons have an A2/AD role? Can a nuclear umbrella play the role of an A2/AD umbrella underneath which a revisionist power can employ conventional or sub-conventional forces?

Continued...........

Does NATO need a new updated 21st century Air Land Battle doctrine? How should NATO be re-postured for a security environment where parts of its territories are covered by the competitor’s A2/AD umbrella?

Continue...................

This interview was published in the context of the Romania Energy Center project “Black Sea in Access Denial Age”, a project co-financed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). To read more, go to http://www.roec.biz/bsad/

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 09:46 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 09:56 PM

One of the best articles on Russian troops in Syria----AND it is from Russian sources

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-in-syria-the-russian-soldiers-who-dont-want-to-fight-for-assad/#10063

The Russian Soldiers Who Don't Want To Go To Syria

11:54 (GMT)

Last night, Gazeta.ru published an interview with four Russian contract soldiers who are refusing to be deployed to Syria by ship from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which has seen regular departures of Russian landing craft, laden with military hardware, in recent days.

Alexei N. from one of the military units in the Eastern Military District learned of the Russian leadership's global plans after the fact, when he had already arrived in Novorossiysk, from where, it has emerged, soldiers and weapons are being transferred by ship. When he realised that he and his comrades from his composite company were going to be sent to Syria any day now, he told Gazeta.ru that they didn't want to fight and go to the Middle East.

Having discussed it with everyone several times by phone, we met at a caf in Novorossiysk...

Four soldiers, all kontraktniki - contract soldiers rather than conscripts - arrived in civilian clothes.

They kept looking around and appeared nervous. The kontraktniki were unsure what they were legally entitled to do or not. They had, with difficulty, got permission to leave the bounds of the base. But one thing that they were absolutely sure of was that they didn't belong in Syria with weapons in their hands.

"We don't want to go to Syria, we don't want to get killed there," says Alexei in a brilliant t-shirt. "From the very start of this mission there has been a lot of strangeness and innuendo, the reality began to dawn on us here, in Novorossiysk."

On August 17 at one of the military bases in the Eastern Military District, commanders gathered together the "most promising," in their eyes, into a consolidated company of 20 men. In it were several officers and kontraktniki. The most senior assigned was a major. On August 27 they had to go on a mission by train to unload equipment at the Tonnelnaya station outside Novorossiysk and return to the base.

However from the very start, this seemingly routine assignment went awry. For some reason, no one had put a return date on their travel order. Just before their dispatch to Novorossiysk, a commander gathered everyone in the unit and told them that they may be sent to a "hot country."

"We had lectures from our commanders at the military base. They told us that our country of arrival would be hot, that it was important for us to bear hygiene in mind, and that under no circumstances were we to take a step outside the territory of the military base. They also explained what to do and how behave in captivity and during interrogtions," say the soldiers. "They specifically told us that the environment would be unfamiliar to us - snakes, vipers. But they would not say specifically where they were sending us, citing the secret directives of the General Staff."

While still at the military base, they took documents for registering official service passports from everyone in the consilidated company. All the specific questions about where on earth the group was going were ignored by the commanders. According to the kontraktniki, everything seemed as if the unit's brass did not know the details of the mission from the beginning themselves.

Furthermore, the consolidated company was issued new weapons like a shot. Such a bureaucratic procedure can take months in the Russian army, but this time all the necessary documents were produced in a matter of hours.

When the troops reached the Rostov region they thought that they were perhaps being sent to fight in Ukraine. However they soon passed through into the Krasnodar region, to the south.

"We thought that we were going to the Donbass, but it turned out to be Syria," says Alexei, joylessly...

On September 7 they passed through Tonnelnaya and drove on to Novorossiysk itself. The vehicles were unloaded from the troop train during the day, and were already loaded up at the port by night.

In Novorossiysk the consolidated company was quartered with a battalion on the outskirts of the city. The company was then moved to a site at a VDV [airborne forces] base. Their send-off delayed, the commanders spoke of a large load-out in the port of Novorossiysk. Gazeta.ru was told at the port that, allegedly, personnel from a military base in Buynaksk have already been sent to Syria with armoured personnel carriers. Among those being sent to Syria, there were rumours of upcoming six-month tours in the Middle Eastern country.

"Serial numbers were removed from the vehicles. We were told about the reinforcement of an airbase in Syria," says another kontraktnik. "One of the people unloading in the port said that we would be on campaign there for four months."

The sea port in Novorossiysk is a closed area - at the entrance there are barriers, cameras, checkpoints with guards. Military equipment is loaded at night. However local residents confirmed that there have been more soldiers in the city recently, and that military vehicles are frequently arriving on troop trains.

On September 16 a member of the General Staff arrived at the base. Speaking before the personnel, the soldier in civilian clothes and without insignia stated that the order for assignment abroad was a secret. He confirmed that the company was being sent to Latakia in Syria (held by the forces of the ruling regime of Bashar Assad), and did not rule out their paricipation in combat operations. The load-up on the ship was planned for September 17, said the officer.

The member of the General Staff dismissed all objections concerning the legality of the orders and refused to elaborate on the missions plan, again citing its secrecy. He also suggested to the command not to allow the kontraktniki off the base and into the city.

Alexei tells Gazeta.ru that the command didn't speak about compensation in the even of wounding or death, they also said nothing about insurance. "The commander said that we had one task before us: all of the personnel must return alive," says the kontraktnik.

The kontraktniki, unhappy about receiving orders without any clear plan, objective or duration, visited the local military prosecutor to ask whether they would subject to criminal liability for failure to comply with their orders. An officer at the prosecutor's office refused to take statements from them.

That evening, an assistant to the military prosecutor arrived at the base with two investigators. The men were told that they had to comply with any orders they received, even verbal ones. The prosecutor's assistant "did not want to listen to any counter-arguments about social security."

When Gazeta.ru approached the Novorossiysk military prosecutor's office, they received a reaction of disbelief and were told to get the soldiers themselves to write to them formally.

Another problem the soldiers encountered concerned their medical records. While travelling to Novorossiysk, they had their medical cards taken away. When they received them back, they found that they had been marked to say that the soldiers had no complaints about dysentry, enuresis, trauma or other conditions. Furthermore, the records now stated that none of the personnel had any hereditary conditions or drug intolerances. However none of the men had undergone an official military health commission.

Gazeta.ru spoke one of the soldiers' mother, who said:

"Why are they sending people out there like cattle to the slaughter? We don't have a war... They haven't received the necessary vaccinations. Their health status hasn't been taken into account. Syria is an extreme environment, I'm afraid to even think about how it will impact them! The vehicles they're taking there are old. Junk. Shoddily patched up. Yes it's there and no one needs it. Do our people really not care about the most important thing? Just whom to send. Do we really need to do anything? Let Shoigu himself go."

She says that the Ministry of Defence is beginning to apply pressure to soldiers' relatives. "They say that if we don't sign a non-disclosure agreement then we will be deprived of compensation in the event of our sons' deaths. What can we do?" The woman is very nearly in tears.

"All of this seems similar to how they send the 'vacationers' to the Donbass, but my son's life is more valuable than their compensation or benefits such as a military mortgage."

The kontraktniki have contacted the Presidential Council on Human Rights (SPCh), which has in turn approached the Ministry of Defence Sergei Krivenko, a member of the SPCh told Gazeta.ru that the "basic unit of the army charter is written orders."

Krivenko said that soldiers must obey orders, but only those that are legal and legitimately filed. The issue regarding medical checks and documents also "raises questions that must be answered," he said.

Gazeta.ru has yet to receive a response from either the Ministry of Defence or the command of the military unit.

Artur Ramzanov, a retired judicial lieutenant-colonel, told Gazeta.ru that sending Russian troops to Syria was:

"perfectly legal and justified because it is carried out within the framework of an agreement on friendship and cooperation between Russia and Syria (and earlier between the USSR and Syria), signed in 1980. Although this treaty does not provide for direct military assistance, section 6 stipulates how to act 'in the event of situations threatening the peace or security of one of the parties or presenting a threat to international peace or security..."

According to this agreement, both parties can then coordinate and collaborate to address said threat and restore peace.

Continued..........

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 10:10 PM

Crow Bat----and there is not an invasion ----waiting for the geo tagging verification

[Unverified] Video of Russian soldiers alongside Syrian Army in Latakia, firing their tank

http://youtu.be/PlChgcFnGFU

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 10:30 PM

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/09/18/syria-is-the-next-arena-on-vladimir-putins-comeback-tour/

Syria is the next arena on Vladimir Putin’s comeback tour

By Lucian Kim September 18, 2015

Vladimir Putin is back. After spending more than a year in the doghouse for slicing off pieces of Ukraine, the Russian president has stepped back on center stage by appointing himself the indispensable arbiter in Syria’s civil war.

For Putin, the first quarter of 2014 began with the euphoria of hosting the world’s most expensive Winter Olympics and annexing Crimea before anybody noticed. But then things started going bad when the West sanctioned his cronies and their companies, kicked Russia out of the G8, and turned Putin into an international pariah. Australia’s then prime minister, Tony Abbott, threatened to tackle Putin according to Australian rules football at the G20 summit in Brisbane in November. The Russian leader left the gathering early with a bruised ego.

Less than a month ago, Putin had to watch from afar as German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and French President Francois Hollande in Berlin on Ukraine’s independence day. Merkel awkwardly explained that the meeting was intended to strengthen the so-called “Normandy Format” — an informal group whose fourth member is Putin.

That was then. Since the beginning of September, the guns in eastern Ukraine have finally fallen silent. A reshuffle in the leadership of the Donetsk separatist republic saw the removal of hardline ideologues. At the same time, Putin floated the idea of a global coalition to fight the spread of Islamic State in Syria and confirmed that Russia was supplying Bashar al-Assad’s regime with military assistance. Talk of Russian air strikes was “premature,” Putin told a reporter, implying that the right time might still come.

Syria is on everyone’s mind. Entire countries in the Middle East are imploding. The United States and its regional allies have been frustrated by the durability of Islamic State in resisting their air campaign. The European Union is struggling with the influx of thousands of Syrian refugees. Enter Putin, the only world leader who can talk to Assad and has the means to alter the calculus of the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State.

When Putin travels to New York at the end of September to address the UN General Assembly for the first time in 10 years, his speech will be the most anticipated one. It will be Putin’s chance to remind the world — and the United States in particular — that Russia is still a great power that others can ignore or isolate at their own peril.

Putin is often compared with a chess player who can see 10 moves ahead. But if any sport really describes Putin’s politics, it’s his beloved judo, which teaches how to throw stronger opponents off balance. Tactical trickery trumps strategic vision. Putin often makes his Western counterparts appear faint-hearted or klutzy because of his ability to react to events decisively, without having to worry about negative media coverage at home or an angry electorate.

Another cliché about Putin is that he’s an inscrutable former spy. While he relishes a good surprise every now and then (see judo comparison), Putin is probably the most public Russian leader ever. State media outlets slavishly transmit the president’s every utterance, and the Kremlin press service continuously updates his bilingual website, creating a vast public record. Putin’s motives are rarely unfathomable for long.

To speak before the United Nations after such a rough year, Putin doesn’t need the rest of the world to dwell on his adventures in Ukraine. After all, 100 UN member states supported a resolution declaring the annexation of Crimea invalid, while only 11 voted against it. It’s a much better bet to come to New York with a proposal to save Syria from being engulfed by Islamic State.

“Russia has suggested the urgent formation of a broad coalition to fight extremism. It should unite all those who are ready to make, or are already making, a real contribution to the fight against terror, as the armed forces of Iraq and Syria are doing today,” Putin said on Tuesday. “We are supporting the Syrian government against terrorist aggression. We are providing it — and will provide it in the future — with the necessary military and technical assistance, and we call on other countries to join us.”

That the West and many Arab countries consider any dealings with Assad a non-starter is secondary. Putin is positioning himself as a statesman with an alternative plan to a U.S. policy that isn’t working. Russia is not part of the problem but part of the solution, Putin is saying. While not everybody will believe him, at least the world is paying attention to him again.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to travel to Russia on Monday to discuss Russia’s growing presence in Syria with Putin. Secretary of State John Kerry has been on the phone with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov three times since the beginning of September. And the White House is in a bind as to whether Obama, who has done his best to ignore Putin, should dignify the Russian president with a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

The conundrum of whether or not to talk with Putin has also plagued European leaders since the annexation of Crimea. At the end of August, Merkel saw no reason to invite him to Berlin with Hollande and Poroshenko. A little more than two weeks later, the Kremlin announced that Putin would meet the other three leaders in Paris on October 2.

The hasty implementation of the ceasefire from the start of September shows just how much control the Kremlin has over the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. A top German diplomat explained that the Paris summit was warranted thanks to positive developments and the wish to keep up the momentum in the Minsk peace process.

The Kremlin is putting Ukraine on the back burner for now. What the German Foreign Ministry chose to interpret as progress is most likely just a delay. For Putin, the Paris meeting will be a victory lap after stealing the show in New York.

Scathing WP opinion on inhuman, ruthless Putin https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/putins-gambit-obamas-puzzlement/2015/09/17/8d168584-5d6d-11e5-9757-e49273f05f65_story.html … is spun as praise on Putin in RU state media http://ria.ru/world/20150918/1261573312.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-18-2015, 10:36 PM

Syria|n regime killed

62,106 civilians 94,5%
38 activists 95,5%
157 med. workers 91,2%
3,821 tortured to death 99,4% pic.twitter.com/5ZONBp8OXT

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 06:31 AM

Below is included simply because that due to the total lack of hard power based in Europe the US has virtually nothing to respond with either in Europe or the ME outside of airpower ie AF and Navy and that is about it.

Wait, you mean eroding NATO forces has consequences? “The conclusion was that we are unable to defend the Baltics.” http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/18/exclusive-the-pentagon-is-preparing-new-war-plans-for-a-baltic-battle-against-russia/ …

As usual, the #Kremlin is not aware of anything. More vacationers, tourists and volunteers.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a5f5117e-5e03-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3m8cxFNqu …

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s senior military advisor says Russia is in sync with Iran regarding Syria http://www.criticalthreats.org/iran-news-round-september-18-2015 …

Syria: #Russia|n selfie soldiers' locations @ProtestSPb pic.twitter.com/muEs6IpGPK

Russia's soldiers aren't only in Latakia & Tartus. Their selfies geolocated to Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Damascus. #Syria https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/644726066012143616 …

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 06:39 AM

Russia soldiers (“in #Syria to fight #ISIS”) fire T-55 tank in #Latakia - 160km+ from any possible #ISIS positions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlChgcFnGFU …

More U.S.-coalition airstrikes in Syria and Iraq in the past year than during more than five years of Afghan war. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/09/18/chart-how-much-more-the-u-s-has-bombed-the-islamic-state-than-the-taliban/?tid=sm_tw …

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 06:46 AM

REMEMBER Putin stated before Obama "caved" that Assad was willing to negotiate with "reasonable forces" BUT he never defined the word "reasonable" just as he stated Assad would remain for a "transitional period" AGAIN undefined.

BUT when using the word "terrorist" Putin definitely between the lines is openly and publicly defining ANYONE who is anti Assad
is a "terrorist"--so who is left that is "reasonable"??????

http://www.rferl.org/content/islamic-state-syria-assads-enemies-islamists/27255377.html

Why Putin Wants To Tar IS And All Assad's Enemies With The Same Brush

By Joanna Paraszczuk

September 18, 2015

Earlier this week, we noted how a pro-Kremlin website claimed the extremist group Islamic State (IS) had sent Chechen militants to Latakia province in Syria.

The report was incorrect -- the Chechen group is not part of IS.

But it was almost certainly an intentional obfuscation.

Russia's conflation of all armed opposition groups with extremist Islamist militants is an integral part of a narrative that has evolved during the Syrian conflict.

Its goals are to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power, counter the United States, and maintain influence in the Middle East.

The "IS threat" narrative contains several arguments that Moscow puts forward in support of these aims.

1. ‘There Are No 'Moderate' Rebels’

According to Moscow, the vast majority of groups fighting Assad are foreign-backed terrorists, not "moderate rebels."

"The Free Syrian Army does not exist," Russia's ambassador to international organizations in Geneva, Aleksei Borodavkin, told the United Nations a year ago, referring to the Western-backed umbrella of moderate rebel forces.

This narrative is partly true. In the north and increasingly the center of Syria, rebel factions are mostly Islamist or Islamist-influenced. Some, like the Al-Nusra Front and the foreign fighter groups, are Salafist-jihadist.

U.S. attempts to bolster moderate rebels have gone awry. The first group to receive U.S. weapons collapsed in March and the United States said this week that there are only "four or five" U.S.-trained rebels fighting IS.

But moderate rebels are still influential in some parts of Syria's far south, where Jordan's intelligence services are active.

2. 'IS Wants To Destroy Syria'

Moscow has warned that IS and other Islamist groups are threatening to turn Syria into a "terror state."

Therefore, eradicating these groups is more important than ousting Assad, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

3. 'Assad Has To Be Part Of Fight Against IS'

Russia has insisted that Assad must be part of the fight against IS, claiming that Syrian armed forces are "the most effective military force on the ground."

Meanwhile, Russia has frequently slammed the U.S.-led anti-IS coalition, saying that it is both illegal (because it has not asked Assad's permission to operate) and ineffective.

4. 'Rebels Should Unite With Assad Against IS'

Both Russia and Assad argue that the threat posed by Islamic State is so great, rebels should unite with government forces to counter the militants.

On September 16, Assad used an interview with Russian news outlets to call on rebels to stop fighting him and help him defeat IS.

Only then can Syrians work on a political solution to the conflict, Assad explained.

Assad's call may seem unrealistic. But it is not a new tactic.

Moscow first put forward the idea nearly two years ago.

"Everything must be done to create a battle-worthy alliance of the government and the patriotic opposition against the terrorist interlopers who flock to Syria from around the world," Lavrov told Russian TV in December 2013.

4. 'The West Is Responsible For IS'

Both Moscow and Damascus have blamed the West for the rise of IS (and other Islamist groups in Syria), saying that while Washington is quick to say Islamic State is a terror group, it has backed other armed groups against Assad.

In February, Putin said the rise of IS was the result of Western "interference" in Syria as well as "double standards" over who it deemed terrorists.

Assad repeated this narrative in an interview with Russian media this week.

"What are IS and the other groups? A Western extremist project," the Syrian leader said.

5. 'Russia's Military Build Up In Latakia Is To Fight IS'

The claim that Assad is essential to countering the IS threat has provided Russia with an argument for its military buildup in Syria -- which is causing increasing alarm from the United States.

"We support the government of Syria in its effort to counter terrorist aggression," is how Putin explained the Russian military expansion in Latakia at a September 15 security summit in Tajikistan.

The Real Threat To Assad

As Russia continues its military build-up in Syria, it has also stepped up its use of the "IS threat" narrative.

But these moves are only partly about IS.

While Islamic State is a threat, a bigger problem for Assad is the advance of other radical Islamist battalions, particularly Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate -- the Al-Nusra Front -- and Ahrar al-Sham, one of the most powerful rebel groups in Syria.

Part of the Jaish al-Fatah military operations coalition, Nusra and Ahrar have driven out government forces from almost all of Idlib province.

And they now threaten Latakia, Assad's coastal stronghold.

But the war is not being fought on the battlefield alone.

Russia's best chance to save its ally in Damascus could be an agreement with the West that while Assad should go or at least be demoted, most of his regime remains in place.

And the only way to achieve that is by persuading Washington and its allies that this would be the best way to fight IS.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 08:55 AM

Humor----
Orthodox priests from #Russia arrive in #Syria, ready to help out locals in their quest of spiritual enlightenment pic.twitter.com/QOZUUs0y7c

Russian Navy Kashin Cls Destroyer Smetlivy crossed #Bosphorus southbound with a thick smoke trail. Headed Greece. pic.twitter.com/GM6xS9IV8o

Syria #Idlib JaN published pictures from inside regime defence lines in southern parts of al-#Fua town pic.twitter.com/8RjUnwzApS

This town is virtually cut off from Syria control---Iranian IRGC is heavily engaged here.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 02:16 PM

WHAT the heck is this as a foreign policy??---Assad is the core reason for the massive refugee flows and the US is on record for stating Assad is the problem and has to go AND they never set a time—KSA, UAE, Qatar and Turkey are all on record—for immediately.

When confronted by the KSA FM in Moscow in a press conference that Assad must go—the Russian Fm under his breath but on audio stated he is a “blooming idiot”—(mildly put which is a massive breach of protocol)

Al Arabiya English ✔ @AlArabiya_Eng
BREAKING: U.S. Secretary of State Kerry says Assad has to go but doesn't have to be on 'day one'

US caves again on their core demands simply to get Russia to what “talk” that is all Putin ever does—talks BUT no actions.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 02:17 PM

Another Russian military selfie with a comms van in the background----Syria---
pic.twitter.com/DglTrcJN14

Expect more hugely exaggerated "news" about #Russia|n success in #Syria. Reminder: no #IS around https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/645200191730122752 …

Kalashnikov assault rifles captured in #Libya. New and in a purpose-made shipping crate #AnsarAlSharia pic.twitter.com/vDD4VynDCd

And Turkey is a critical partner in the fight against IS??????
Turkish Airstrikes (through Sept 1)
Against Kurds: 300
Against ISIS: 3

SAA #Hezbollah operations in #Zabadani pic.twitter.com/0CMyblIjDr

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 02:42 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 02:48 PM

Reports on Russian combat air deployments to Syria so far this evening: 4 Sukhoi fighter jets, 4 attack helicopters, 4 troop carrying helo

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 02:57 PM

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/18/putin-syria-assad-kissinger-khmer-rouge-disgust?CMP=share_btn_tw

The West must resist playing Putin’s game in Syria. That way calamity lies

Natalie Nougayrède

Kissinger’s priority in 1975 was to use the Khmer Rouge as a “counterweight” to North Vietnam. Putin’s priority is to cast Assad as the main bulwark against Isis, and to position Russia as the centrepiece of a new international strategy on Syria. Russia has moved fast to demonstrate its assertiveness. It has begun a military deployment in coastal areas of Syria controlled by the Assad regime – which has caught western officials off balance.

What does Russia seek to achieve? One old hope has resurfaced: is Putin preparing for a post-Assad Syria, with a peace settlement in the making? There is no doubt that basking in international recognition is something the Russian president would enjoy: remember how, in 2013, he helped Obama wriggle out of his commitment to airstrikes against Syria by arranging a deal over Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal.

Syria-fatigue in western circles has reached such a point that Putin has a good opportunity to cast himself as the man with a plan. Who, he might disingenuously ask, could possibly object to fighting Isis as part of a wider alliance? But this is precisely the problem. Western failure in the region is one thing, but it doesn’t mean that the Russian president can bring salvation. Quite the contrary.

For a start, let’s put aside naive and wishful thinking. There is no credible sign that Putin is ready to overthrow or replace Assad. Nor was there ever a serious Russian intention to do so, at any point. In the summer of 2012, when the big powers met in Geneva to discuss a Syrian national unity government, Russia made sure that this would not entail Assad’s departure. Russia has consistently shielded the Syrian president – not out of any love for him, but because, after the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime, he represents Russia’s last foothold in the Middle East: and its best chance to demonstrate western fickleness.

Second, Putin’s main inspiration on Middle East affairs is Yevgeny Primakov, a former Russian prime minister and a long-time pillar of KGB policies in the region. Primakov, who died earlier this year, played an important role in securing tight links between the Russian and Syrian intelligence services. In his book Russia and the Arabs, he theorised about how Russia’s role in the region might reflect its global status and its capacity to counter America’s influence. Primakov also set the Russian tone of denouncing the 2011 Arab spring as a western plot aimed at regime change that must be opposed.

But Putin’s intentions are best described by the man himself. In a recent interview he was clear about the kind of “political process” he has in mind: “Holding early parliamentary elections and establishing ties with the so-called healthy opposition, involving them in running the country” – all this “in agreement” with Assad. In a nutshell: fake elections and a fake governing coalition, in a war-torn, decomposing country.

Third, when talking about “anti-terrorism”, it’s important to dwell on the meaning of words. For the west, anti-terrorism means fighting Isis. For Assad, whose views are supported by Moscow, any political opposition to his rule amounts to terrorism. In the name of “anti-terrorism” he has had tens of thousands of Syrians killed, whole neighbourhoods and cities flattened, and families massacred – not unlike what Putin’s army did in Chechnya. Is this the type of warfare the west will condone by joining a new alliance with Russia and Assad?

Assad and Isis feed off each other. The Russian logic fuels, rather than reduces, violent Islamic militancy

It’s not that talking to Putin about Syria is wrong in itself. What counts is what is said and what actions are taken as a result. If Putin is genuinely interested in what the west calls anti-terrorism, then putting an immediate end to barrel bombs and other Syrian government atrocities would be a good place to start. Assad’s military machine is the main cause of civilian deaths – and now it is pumped up with new Russian weapons. Assad and Isis feed off each other. It is in Assad’s interests to make sure Syria is viewed – as is widely the case now in the west – as primarily a clash between him and violent extremist jihadism. And Isis is able to recruit because it claims to defend Sunni populations against the indiscriminate onslaught of Assad’s military.

The Russian logic of propping up a regime that actually fuels, rather than reduces, violent Islamic militancy can be challenged as contradictory. After all, Russia has domestic concerns with jihadism on its southern flanks. But for Putin the political gains of harnessing an ally, demonstrating steadfastness and parading Russian clout in the Middle East – while the west wallows in confusion – largely outweigh that apparent contradiction. Even if one day Assad ends up dead, jailed or on the run, Russia will have, in the meantime, shown resolve.

Putin’s suggestion that the west should embrace Assad is an illusion that will lead to more bloodshed in Syria and won’t solve the refugee crisis. It risks making Syria an even greater hell, if only because alignment with Assad will be met with more meddling by Saudi and Gulf actors who back Sunni Islamic insurgents. It should be rejected with the same kind of disgust that Kissinger’s overtures to the Pol Pot regime inspire to this day.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 03:08 PM

Can anyone explain to me just what the entire US government from Obama downwards has actually been smoking the last two days??

The US is to negotiate with Putin over Syria when Putin and his entire government adamantly states "there ain't a single Russian soldier in and or fighting in Syria"--and they are still maintaining that lie as of today--AND that in the face of countless Russian military selfies and sat imagery.

Has the US government learned absolutely nothing from the Ukraine where Russia is still arguing in the face of hundreds of Russian military selfies and Russian Facebook entries which depict the opposite.

So when they reach agreement--what does Russia then ship home imaginary soldiers using paper cutouts???

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-in-syria-the-russian-soldiers-who-dont-want-to-fight-for-assad/#10066

Russia Repeats Denials Of Troops In Syria Despite Soldiers' Testimony And Reports From Hama

15:20 (GMT)

The state-owned TASS news agency reports that the Russian Defence Ministry has denied that Russian contract soldiers are being deployed to Syria, following the publication of a Gazeta.ru interview with four soldiers who are refusing to go.

"The Eastern military district is surprised by attempts of correspondents of the online media outlet to link the routine activity of the forces to the events in the Middle East," the ministry’s press service said.

The relocation of military units as part of combat training events comes only within the Eastern military district and in line with the schedule, it said.

Last night, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed Syrian military source, that government forces are now using new weaponry received from Russia.

"The weapons are highly effective and very accurate, and hit targets precisely," the source said in response to a question about Russian support. "We can say they are all types of weapons, be it air or ground."

The source said the army had been trained in the use of the weapons in recent months and was now deploying them, declining to give further details other than saying they were "new types."

Today, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that around 2,400 Russian citizens were fighting with ISIS in Syria.

The state-owned RIA Novosti news agency reported that Sergei Smirnov, deputy director of the FSB, said (translated by The Interpreter):

"Two thousand, four hundred citizens of the Russian Federation are participating in 'Islamic State' criminal gangs, Around three thousand citizens of Central Asian countries, including those in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, are also amongst these ranks."

While the Kremlin may be using the threat of ISIS to provide cover for their military intervention in Syria, there is evidence that the FSB itself has, in fact, aided Russian citizens in travelling to Syria to wage jihad, as The Interpreter's editor-in-chief, Michael Weiss, wrote in The Daily Beast last month.

Furthermore, there are recent reports from inside Syria that Russian forces are being applied not against ISIS, but towards areas held by Jaysh al-Fateh, a coalition of rebel factions, near Hama.

NOW Lebanon reported on September 15 that Russian troops were reported entering the regime-held city. The article cites an All4Syria report claiming that the Equestrian Club in the south-east of Hama has become "a barracks for Russian nationals."

Al-Souria Net reported that a large convoy had arrived in Hama on September 14. One activist, Suhaib al-Rahmoun told the news site that he had received information on the arrival of a delegation of Russian officers and advisers, along with the Syrian defence minister, Fahd Jassem al-Frejj, at the Al-Nawair Hotel.

Government troops closed roads to the city centre as as "more than ten buses, accompanied by several trucks loaded with equipment" arrived.

As NOW Lebanon notes, the pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper described the convoy as a consignment of Russian humanitarian aid.

However the Al-Souria Net article describes reports from opposition observers that indicate a much more serious military operation was taking place in the area.

Ronak Housaine translates for The Interpreter:

Observatory 80 which belongs to the Syrian opposition confirmed in a special report for Al-Souria Net that a large military convoy was spotted going out of Hama military airport at 9 pm on Sunday evening [September 13], which is the fourth convoy to have come out of the airport within 48 hours toward Sahil Alghab.

The observatory pinpointed the arrival of the convoy in the town of Salhab in the western Hama countryside and said that it contained 10 tanks, 20 BMPs, 2 "Ash" rocket launchers , five Grad rocket launchers and 70 vehicles of various types transferring army and foreign militias.

The observatory noted leaked information from regime's side that a huge (Russian-Iranian) military action is being prepared for, combined with the 4th Armoured Division along with the 11th and 18th (of the Syrian army) with very large numbers of National Defence Force elements, to retrieve some areas of Sahil Al Ghab that the regime lost recently to Jaysh al-Fateh.

It is noteworthy that CNN announced yesterday that American satellites had spotted two amphibious Russian vessels docked on the Syrian coast to land more than 100 Russian Marines along with dozens of other vehicles.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 04:55 PM

"Modern times"...
Islamist rebel group #Nusra films double SVBIED attack on #Fuah with drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyvFgkPDVUs … pic.twitter.com/pwEQauoI2w

Analysis #Map
Jabhat al #Nusra SVBIED vs. the regime front in #Fuah.
Recorded from Nusra drone.
#Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/s0u2bzwmYl

Footage
More rebel SVBIED hit the #Assad front in #Fuah today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36OuLF6FmIc …
#Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/BNBArsCduH

Footage
Syrian rebels in #Hama province hit an #Assad regime vehicle with the TOW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kzVlyeG-tg …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/UDPOHkrlVL

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 04:57 PM

Well those Russian soldiers who are not suppose to be in Syria which both Putin and his FM repeatedly state seem to be in trouble. So it begs the question

Why is the US negotiating with Russia about so called soldiers that are “not there”?????/

Base with Rus soldiers who don't want to go to Syria reportedly on lockdown, they are threatened with treason charge http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2015/09/19_a_7765883.shtml …

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 04:59 PM

Valid critique on the western mainstream media coverage of both Syria and the Ukraine………

We're also due for thoughtful criticism on how we the media covered Syria over the past year http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/assads-strategy-is-to-create-refugees#.ka2rGaGre … pic.twitter.com/RYITgsIo5n

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 05:16 PM

Can anyone explain to me what Kerry really is smoking---how can it be that social media is so well informed and the US DoS evidently has absolutely not a clue of what Russia ie Putin is doing in Syria.

HECK even social media had the first photo and report on the advanced Russian AD system that had been shipped to Syria--and NOW it strikes Kerry as a problem?????

It was social media that triggered the first reporting and it was the US that denied their reports at first, then it was social media that released tens of Russian military selfies taken physically in Syria, then it was social media that tracked Russia air and sea lift movements in real time before the US could say anything and it was social media that pointed a very direct finger at the exact strategy Putin is driving.

SO exactly why do we have over 700 people working inside the NSC? WHY do we even have a DoS???

Just hire social media as they are definitely better informed, quicker and not tied to any political doctrine--definitely a heck of a lot cheaper.

London. (Evan Vucci, Pool/Associated Press)

By Ken Dilanian | AP September 19 at 11:20 AM

LONDON — The United States is disturbed by Russia’s movement of tactical aircraft to Syria, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Saturday, acknowledging that the jets could pose a threat to American and allied military forces.

U.S. officials say Russia moved a small number of fighter jets to a base in Syria on Friday, hours after U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter talked with Russia Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in the first military contacts between the two countries in some time.

“Clearly, the presence of aircraft with air-to-air combat capacity ... and surface-to-air missiles raise serious questions,” Kerry said, responding to a question after meeting with British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond. The Russians have deployed at least one such system, according to an American official, who was not authorized to discuss military matters and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Russia says its recent military buildup in Syria is designed to fight the Islamic State group. While IS lacks an air force, the Russian aircraft are capable of striking ground targets and providing close air support for ground forces, a U.S. intelligence official said. The official was not authorized to discuss military matters and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Russia’s military moves in Syria are its first major expeditionary force deployment outside the former Soviet Union since the war in Afghanistan, the official said.

Kerry said the military-to-military talks with the Russians are designed to make sure there are no incidents between Russian and American forces. The discussions also amount to a tacit acceptance of the Russian buildup, after weeks of warnings from Washington against any Russian escalation in Syria.

In another apparent concession, Kerry stated explicitly that the U.S. could accept a resolution to the Syrian war that allowed President Bashar Assad to remain in place for a time before departing, as the U.S. long has wanted.

“We’re not being doctrinaire about the specific date or time — we’re open,” Kerry said, adding that Assad doesn’t have to leave “on day one, or month one, or whatever.”

He later added that the U.S. considered Assad a magnet for the foreign fighters who are filling the Islamic State group’s ranks.

“So there’s a lack of logic,” Kerry said, for the Russians to say “they are bringing in more equipment to shore up Assad at the same time they say they are going after” the militants.

Meantime, a Syrian rebel group claims it fired rockets at a coastal air base said to be used by Russian troops. In a video posted Friday, members of the Islam Army warn the Russians that they will not enjoy peace in Syria. The fighters are then are seen loading and launching multiple rockets from a mountainous area.

Kerry and Hammond said they also discussed the situations in Yemen, Libya and Ukraine. Kerry also urged restraint in response to days of clashes around the Jerusalem holy site known to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary and to Jews as the Temple Mount.

“All of us join together in urging everybody to keep the calm,” Kerry said.

Come on--this is getting ridiculous--social media carried the first reporting of this Russian AD system and first photo several days ago AND now US MSM and the DoS Kerry "wake up out of their sleep walking".

It was even posted here in this thread----just how much are we really paying the entire US IC?????

Russia has deployed surface-to-air missiles, planes with air-to-air missiles in #Syria, U.S. says. SA-22 at Latakia. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/20/world/middleeast/russian-buildup-in-sy... …

THIS is actually embarrassing now...............

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 05:31 PM

Syria #Idlib New video from #JaF inside defence lines in #Fuah
#FuahKafraya-battle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-yp5FhCKAk&feature=youtu.be …

BreakingFootage
#Nusra storms the southern parts of #Fuah this evening.
https://youtu.be/4NXrT8nPGUg
#Idlib #Syria

Interesting to note about this Russian soldiers in #Latakia #Syria is there is no #ISIS there. Only rebels, FSA even

Assad helicopter shot down by Shamiya Front AA missile over Nayrab military airbase in #Aleppo, #Syria
We know there has always been a small number of FN-6 MANPADS in northern #Syria but we rarely saw them in action. https://twitter.com/paradoxy13/status/645281664000782336

Map
Ahrar al-Sham claims capture of southern #Fuah, Tell al-Khirbah and parts of Dair al-Zughb.
#Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/tKmeQpgpoL

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 05:50 PM

8 Assad barrel bombs on #Madaya in rural #Damascus near #Zabadani after rebels take back several positions from Hezbollah & Assad militias.

18 barrel bombs were dropped by Assad helicopters on #Daraya, #Damascus so far today.

Sham Front rebels launching mortar shells at #ISIS positions in Dabiq & Harbel in #Aleppo, #Syria

FSA Suqour al-Jabal firing rockets at regime officer housing & the cardboard factory barrier in #Aleppo, #Syria http://youtu.be/x8USldZIuYU

Heavy fighting in the hills surrounding #Harasta today between JAI & regime forces/militias. #Damascus #Syria

Seems the relatives of Shiite militia members in #FuahKafraya battle don't use #Syria'n flag to publish obituaries

#FSA Fursan al-Haq blow up regime ammo pickup in the Military Academy #Aleppo with TOW missile
http://youtu.be/82uGwz875q8

Videos showing Jaysh al-Fath fighters clashing and advancing.
https://youtu.be/9eZh4NfSq6Y
https://youtu.be/-cWp8mHEFbY
https://twitter.com/IbnNabih1/status/644922037165813760 …

Russia #Syria : Here she is in #Sevastopol possibly loading cargo from mil trucks b4 Syria https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/645107010443288576 …

Syria : Appears that #ISIS getting ready to make another assault on #Kewers airbase. Imagery shows evidence of 2 digging projects (1)

Syria : 5th identified eastern #Latakia location w/ Russian Comms/equipment activity http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.656895&lon=36.008474&z=17&m=b …

Syria : Russian Comms/vehicles based at this E #Latakia hilltop starting Sept 5th http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.649600&lon=36.006542&z=19&m=b …

Sat images - #Russia has 4 Su-27 jets, 2 Mi-24 & 2 Mi-17 choppers, 6 T-90 tanks & 25+ BTR APCs in #Latakia airbase: pic.twitter.com/sPOdgi1Ms8

Syria : Russian communications equipment and vehicles have been deploying to this #Slinfah ridge for several weeks

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 05:58 PM

'Russian soldiers are unhappy about going to Syria' - if captured in #Ukraine = get swapped in POW exchange. In #Syria = star in ISIS video

Is it true that on #Russia military vacation request forms there are only 4 check boxes?
1 Ukraine
2 Syria
3 Siberia
4 Nevermind

Russia needs air-to-air missiles to blow up Baghdadi's flying carpet.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 06:04 PM

JAI launching Grad rockets at Hmaimeem (Basel al-Assad) airport in #Latakia, #Syria where Russian jets have arrived

Anti Assad forces rocket Russian military base----this is going to get interesting as the anti Assad forces shoot back not like in the Ukraine where the UAF had to restrain themselves from firing.

VIDEO Supp. Islamic Militants firing Grad P rockets at #Putin troops #Latakia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOiz3mWgPV0 … pic.twitter.com/KIYSUE8Kai

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 06:33 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 06:40 PM

Assad helicopter shot down by Shamiya Front AA missile over Nayrab military airbase in #Aleppo, #Syria
We know there has always been a small number of FN-6 MANPADS in northern #Syria but we rarely saw them in action. https://twitter.com/paradoxy13/status/645281664000782336

Map
Ahrar al-Sham claims capture of southern #Fuah, Tell al-Khirbah and parts of Dair al-Zughb.
#Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/tKmeQpgpoL

VIDEO: Sham Front shoot down #Syria Air Force helicopter with MANPADS over Neirab military airport
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMeiCwII9uE …

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 06:52 PM

RUS troops in SYR not for "defensive" purposes; reportedly en route to engage ISIS near Hama

http://exm.nr/1MiW9ph

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 07:11 PM

Army of Islam claims it seized control over large chunk of vital #Damascus-#Homs highway.Civilians allowed to traverse during daytime #Syria

The soldiers refused to go to #Syria w/o a legal written order, protecting their rights & (death) benefits. Lessons from #Ukraine.

Satellite images show #Russia(n) An-124 Transport planes & attack helicopters in #Latakia pic.twitter.com/eWxh5A0zxQ

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 07:31 PM

Russian Su-30 multipurpose fighters now in Syria. One purpose is to win dogfights with enemy aircraft. ISIS has none. pic.twitter.com/OA11ucqExn

Humor-----

Russian jets in Syria are fitted with air-to-air missiles in case they encounter ISIS' air force squadrons of flying carpets.

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 07:42 PM

Clash of ATGMs..TOW crushed the Kornet..
http://youtu.be/EXTVE6Nf9T0 pic.twitter.com/3OyflcsKi1

Someone has trained extremely well TOW hunter killer teams that are flipping the battlefield--TOW the Stinger of 2015-------

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 08:38 PM

Rebels telecommunication stations say they heard Russian pilots flying combat missions radio the airbase over #Idlib.

Footage
Islamist Syrian rebel coalition takes Tell al-Khirbah 4 km N-E of #Fuah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgrAnvmEaS4&feature=youtu.be …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/PwnM6CUec5

OUTLAW 09

09-19-2015, 08:39 PM

And lest we forget, Russia exercised its veto 3 times to prevent UN delivery of humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians https://twitter.com/ObeidaNahas/status/645230618360475648 …

Footage
An #Assad regime barrel bomb attack in #Aleppo killed 17 civilians today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7KXY66rqKw …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/6CPOY5GOmX

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 07:53 AM

Syria: #Russia|n selfie soldiers' locations pic.twitter.com/muEs6IpGPK

The continued use of RAK-12s suggests Croatia weapons are still being sent to the Syria opposition, since early 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eZ1KPStaRU …

Rumors of new ceasefire agreement in #Zabadani and #FuaKafarya. No confirmation from any side.

Jaysh al-Fath took couple of regime barriers east al-Fu'a today. Still no confirmation on ceasefire agreement. pic.twitter.com/ogknsBYB4l

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 10:41 AM

This falls under bitter but true humor-----

Obama will leave office before Assad does.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 11:22 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 11:48 AM

http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/obama-must-start-leading-and-stop-dithering-in-syria

Obama must start leading and stop dithering in Syria

Hussein Ibish

September 19, 2015

Related articles-------

With Assad on the ropes in Syria, what’s the endgame?

An absent America is the worst of all possible worlds

America needs to develop a consistent policy in Syria

US policy reflects America’s lack of interest in the world

The awful truth about American policy towards the war in Syria – the most dangerous, destabilising and tragic conflict in the world – was summed up last week by the astounding revelation that there are only nine American-trained rebels currently fighting in Syria.

Last week in these pages, I noted that Russia is getting a free pass in much of the Arab world for sponsoring and enabling Bashar Al Assad, who is primarily responsible for the hundreds of thousands of dead, and millions of displaced, Syrian civilians, and the destruction of much of the country. Russia’s criminal culpability as the primary handmaiden of the destruction of Syria even outstrips Iran’s far more widely recognised malfeasance.

America’s Syria policy, exemplified by the single-digit numbers of US-trained fighters on the ground, is in no sense a comparable tragedy. But it is certainly a farce.

The paltry amount of $500 million was allocated by the US congress for the training. fifty four rebels were selected, with nine now reportedly fighting in Syria under the terms of the programme. Forget about The Six Million Dollar Man of 1970s TV fame, each of these fighters cost more than $55 million.

It’s not just embarrassing, worse than useless, and a gigantic waste of money. It’s incontrovertible evidence of a policy in desperate free fall.

From the outset, American inaction has ensured that the wrong-headed idea that there is no one to work with on the ground in Syria has increasingly become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s still not too late to build such a force, but it grows ever more difficult to achieve, particularly given the depth of this recent failure.

Obama administration policy, which emphasises the need to avoid the collapse of governance institutions in Syria, such as they are, militates against any confrontation with the Assad regime. Never mind that it is formal US policy that he has lost all legitimacy and must go.

Perhaps a sham programme that pretends to be training people to influence events on the ground while actually attempting no such thing is the perfect embodiment of a policy that purports to oppose the continuation of a government when it actually does not wish to see it go, at least just yet. If Mr Al Assad were the only issue, this tragicomedy might actually be comprehensible.

But the United States has a stated policy of seeking to “degrade and ultimately defeat” ISIL. American and international attention to the menace of ISIL was captured when the organisation rampaged through Iraq in 2014. Washington clearly has an “Iraq-first” policy when it comes to ISIL.

But ISIL’s base and headquarters are in Syria. It cannot be defeated in Iraq alone, and the “Iraq-first” approach all but guarantees it will survive as a potent force. ISIL might even be driven out of most of Iraq, but spread into new areas from its Syrian base. Indeed, ISIL’s regional influence is expanding, while the effort to drive it out of Iraq is making a little headway.

Obviously ISIL has to be confronted in Syria, even if the real goal is some form of containment. Air power alone will do little to “degrade”, let alone “defeat”, these fanatics. Ground forces are indisputably essential. And all honest observers admit any use of forces perceived to be supporting the Assad regime will only strengthen ISIL’s hand and drive more Syrian Sunnis into their camp.

These incontrovertible facts led to the training programme that has just been exposed as a combination of cynical fraud and embarrassing fiasco.

Sadly this is all a continuation of the approach that led to the shameful backtracking over Barack Obama’s chemical weapons “red line” in 2013. After repeated instances of chemical attacks on civilians by the regime, instead of being punished, Mr Al Assad was actually rewarded with an agreement in which he promised to relinquish and destroy all of his chemical weapons.

He suddenly emerged as a partner with the United States in the accord, with all the diplomatic legitimacy that implies, and the agreement clearly required him to keep control of all the areas of the country necessary to implement it.

Now there is considerable evidence Mr Al Assad has been again using chlorine bombs. Washington’s mighty response? Quietly suggesting a UN inquiry.

Russia has defended its policies in Syria as open and honest. Indeed, Moscow makes no pretence of doing anything other than funding and supporting its Syrian client’s mass murder and mass displacement, though it preposterously rationalises it as counterterrorism.

The United States, by contrast, has no meaningful policy in Syria. Any doubts about that, even after the chemical weapons travesty, have surely been dispelled by this parody of a training programme.

American apathy has continuously made matters worse and limited Washington’s own options. But it’s never too late. History doesn’t stop and events continue to unfold. People will always respond to carrots and sticks.

The trouble is that a coherent policy requires a desired outcome, and the United States doesn’t seem to know what, within the realm of the possible, it wants to see happen in Syria. This inexplicable and inexcusable confusion is the proximate cause of America’s Syria policy crisis. Washington, and the world, cannot afford any more of this self-defeating dithering.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 12:08 PM

I'm going to start an accurate crowd-sourced Intel/Analytical service for FREE. I'll call it Twitter. Doh!. Nevermind.

Analysis #Map
Frontline geolocation East of #Fuah.
Taken poultry farm by Ahrar al Sham (90% certain).
#Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/51OBMW33ac

Faulty analysis from @AllSourceA . Russian jets @ #Latakia airbase are Su-30 not Su27 as they claim. Wrong on multiple levels *sigh*

Satellitenfoto: Russische SU-27 Kampfflugzeuge auf dem Al-Assad Flughafen in #Syrien @welt (Quelle: @AllSourceA) pic.twitter.com/zxsEaAyHJg

Here are the 4 SU-30s a week ago in Russia---
Here are some a/c sitting at Belbek over a week ago. Might as well post em here pic.twitter.com/9oPhFuiaVD

Syria Negotiations expected btw Jaish al-Fatah #JaF & #Iran/#Hezbollah about handover & evacuation of #Fuah+#Kafraya & #Zabadani + #Madaya

And what did #Assad do today?
Cause more death and destruction by barrel-bombing #Daraya.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuiSZUw2pSw … pic.twitter.com/R4cP2Civms

Footage
#Nusra islamist rebels with RPG-22 during the attack on the #Fuah line of defence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXorB9sqnE8 … pic.twitter.com/iH1X1wb0cp

Syria : Rebels have made progress in multiple fronts around #Aleppo for the first time in months

Plus visual confirmation, Jaish al Fatah captured the important frontline base after the suicide attack
#FuahKafraya pic.twitter.com/1X93xPULrI

Syria #Aleppo : Shabiha steps out for a cigarette, rebels offer him a light https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff_ZH93A_Jw …

Analysis #Map
Syrian rebel SVBIED destroys Tell al-Khirbah outpost before capture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfjq1Mcg8kY …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/s6gGFM70zS

Footage
Brutal fighting action by #Assad's forces in #Damascus' #Jobar district.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wTGg3J1aus …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/620j6aY3Qj

A video of the aftermath of barrel bomb attack on my aunt's flat yesterday in Ansari, Aleppo: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-TQP4pWs3pA …

Syria : New Tank Identification Guide for Rebels : How to determine if your target is crewed by SAA or Russians ---Dash Cam on left front side of the tank----Russian—no Dash Cam—SAA.

Tow Missile Destroys a technical truck full of troops #Syria
Flying Shabiha part 302
https://youtu.be/H97z4w_0Y_o

Footage
The #Assad air force keeps bombing civilians in the #Homs town of #Talbisah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOq52dNWHbs …

IT is just not IS infiltrating the refugee flows to Europe-----
Laith Ayman Munshdi, Assad terrorist from #Syria, given refuge in #Germany! Seen stepping on bodies dead bodies.

If you want to see the craziest videos of barrel bombs in Daraya. This channel has been posting them since 2013.
https://www.youtube.com/user/DaryaRevlution/videos …

Heavy clashes between FSA and regime forces at Dahiyet al-Assad in Aleppo. #Syria
http://youtu.be/q6g0o6Odg0Q

FSA shell ISIS positions in northern Aleppo with missiles. #Syria
http://youtu.be/QcunG0wGqgg

Clashes between FSA & regime in Khalidiyeh district, Aleppo. #Syria
http://youtu.be/Dt_WE8GjEKg
http://youtu.be/rbb8D6nKgQg
http://youtu.be/1LO3lZkOBIQ

FSA 16th Division shell took out an Assad soldier in Khalidiyeh district, Aleppo. #Syria
http://youtu.be/ff_ZH93A_Jw

FSA Suqour al-Jabal destroys an Assad truck mounted 23 mm gun with a TOW missile in Fuah, #Idlib, #Syria https://youtu.be/H97z4w_0Y_o

After an ISIS car bomb failed, ADF sent one back to them in Harbal, N-Aleppo & it didn't fail
http://youtu.be/hPrhI1C-voM

What ceasefire, heavy clashes between rebels & Hezbollah in #Zabadani & Assad shelling on #Madaya in rural #Damascus, #Syria

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 12:39 PM

Syria #Idlib Regime use ceasefire to parachute ammo/weapons into besieged Shiite enclave
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtkN68PNbLU …
-battle of #FuahKafraya-

Syria #Idlib View from highest point on Tell al-Khirbah toward #Fuah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiGE71SBApw …

Syria #FSA shelling #Assad-suburb at western entrance of #Aleppo with hell cannons
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6g0o6Odg0Q …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.175366&lon=37.083042&z=16&m=b …

New batch of 75 #US-trained fighters (Division 30) entered northern #Syria with 12 technicals
WHO trained them as the CENTCOM Commander failed to mention them in his Congressional hearing this week?????

Syria #Aleppo From frontline in Khalidiya https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbb8D6nKgQg … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LO3lZkOBIQ …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.228143&lon=37.124283&z=16&m=b …

Syria #Aleppo Huge car-bomb explode inside #IS held town Harbul
-rebels send them a present
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPrhI1C-voM …

Almost daily reports of tanks & BMPs being destroyed by JAI using ATGMs around Dahiya al-Assad in #Damascus, vids would be nice :)

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 12:58 PM

Crow Bat--remember our dialogue on the Russian AD systems in Syria??

Remember I mentioned that the S300s were inbound---now the question is just where are they physically in Syria--- not a question of if they are.

‏@finriswolf · Sep 18
Can someone else please ID this equipment - because I *can't*

It is a clam shell 76N6 low altitude acquisition radar towers with support equipment for S300 missiles

@finriswolf @hdevreij "S300 in Syria "

HERE though is the UNLESS--the missiles are not there but the command and control equipment is in order to tie into the latest low level Russian AD systems they have sent into the 200s series (really a S300 series) the Syrians have already.

That would give you an integrated, layers and overlapping AD system in the Russian doctrinal sense--coupled with the SU-30s--fully capable of threatening the US and denying the West the ability to setup a NFZ.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 01:21 PM

Bitter humor----but when looking at the Obama FP—actually true……

Concern, bargaining, anger, depression, then acceptance.
Barack Obama's 5 stages of dealing with Russia.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 01:39 PM

Well worth the reading of this..................

http://www.interpretermag.com/a-russian-plan-for-syria-is-two-years-too-late/

NOTICE the date of this article—we do if one is wise need to often go back and review what has been written as a way to refresh one’s memory of current events----

A Russian Plan For Syria Is Two Years Too Late

September 12, 2013

The Kerry Plan

Some say it was a mistake, but if it was then it was the “gaffe heard round the world.” John Kerry made a sarcastic, and possibly off-the-cuff, comment about how Syrian President Bashar al Assad might escape U.S. military attacks aimed at punishing him for using chemical weapons on August 21st:

He could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week. Turn it over, all of it, without delay, and allow a full and total accounting for that. But he isn’t about to do it, and it can’t be done, obviously.

Within what seemed like moments, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, endorsed a plan to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles, and pledged Russia’s support in the process. Soon after, Syria Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem expressed that the Assad regime was willing to work with the Russians. With three sentences, John Kerry appears to have altered the international community’s entire conversation and trajectory with regards to Syrian intervention.

As this story is developing, there will be rolling updates. For instance, Syria has suggested that it is willing to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, a 20 year old international agreement that only Syria and four other states have refused to sign thus far. France has stated that it will draft UN Security Council resolution that would put in place verification methods in order to ensure that Syria carries through with its pledge. Sensing that Russia and Assad were trying to derail US efforts to build a military coalition to strike Syria, France’s proposal included language that could open the door for international strikes against Syria should it fail to comply. Russia has threatened to veto the UNSC resolution.

John Kerry spoke on a Google Hangout, and he has reiterated that the White House is interested in this proposal, but there have to be verification processes built into any agreement, and he and the President are unwilling to wait a long period of time for the plan to be worked out. Obama’s speech suggested that the United States is still interested in moving forward with military intervention, but it was willing to briefly give the diplomatic process to work. In the end, though, he would need strong language that ensured that Assad was held accountable for destroying the CW. And again, Russia has said that it is unwilling to accept those kinds of preconditions.

In other words, the so-called “Kerry Plan” to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons appears to already be falling apart. Just moments ago, the UNSC meeting was postponed (reportedly by Russia).

There are also a lot of concerns about the feasibility of the plan should an agreement be signed.

For the moment, however, let’s just go on the assumption that world powers did agree to a deal that would put Russia in charge of ensuring that the Assad regime disposed of its weapons. Can either the Putin administration or the Assad regime be trusted to abide by any agreements they make with the international community? Let’s look at recent history to find out.

Russia Blocks International Progress as Assad’s Crimes Grow

First, Russia has blocked nearly every UN Security Council resolution, and all of the ones that would hold Assad accountable for his actions. In October of 2011 Russia vetoed the first resolution which would have condemned Assad’s use of violence against protests. At this point, the Syrian crisis was in its simplest form. Not only where there no Al Qaeda aligned rebel groups, there were hardly any rebel groups at all. The rebellion was only starting, and was made up almost entirely of Assad’s own defectors, men who were fleeing for their lives after they refused to kill unarmed protesters. This was, in many ways, the moment where Russia lost its best chance to help end the crisis. At this point it was clear that Assad could not return Syria to the status quo through force, but things had not yet decayed to the point where a transitional government was unthinkable.

Russia did, however, back an option, in April 2012 – the launch of the Kofi Annan plan. Annan believed that he could find a political solution to the Syrian crisis.

However, thanks in part to Russian and Chinese obstructionism, the best chance for a political solution had already been lost. On two occasions, the Assad regime had agreed to cooperate with the demands of the Arab League, which wanted to oversee a ceasefire in order to alleviate the humanitarian crisis and foster a political solution. On those occasions, Assad proved that he could not be trusted by failing to meet every single demand that he had agreed to. And Russia proved that it was more interested in watching Assad’s back than in fostering a solution to the Syrian crisis.

Assad agrees to withdraw troops, then launches the siege of Homs

In early November of 2011, Assad told the Arab League that he would withdraw tanks and troops from all of his cities, and he would allow peaceful protests to take place. Over the next week, however (each word is a separate link), starting as soon as the words came out of his mouth, not only did Assad continue to kill dozens of civilians, he moved more tanks and artillery into places like Homs (and Daraa and Hama, where there was no insurgency yet), and began to wage what looked like an all out war against his own populace. In fact, this was the beginning of the assault against Homs which remains some of most intense violence that the war has seen to date.

In December, the Arab League negotiated their second settlement with the regime when Assad agreed to pull its tanks out of Syrian cities in order to allow observers to visit the scenes.. Arab League Observers pushed into Syrian cities only to find that Assad’s troops and tanks were still deployed, and the fighting had never stopped. By January, it was clear that no part of Assad’s promise had been kept, and by February the full brunt of Assad’s tanks an artillery had flattened huge swaths of Homs, one of Syria’s largest and oldest cities, leaving about two thousand dead (the VDC, an interactive database that verifies death tolls, reports that 1853 people were killed in Homs between November 2011 and February 2012 – their database is one of the most conservative with regards to death tolls). Before the siege of Homs, it was rare to hear about daily casualty tolls reaching more than one or two dozen. Since then, the daily death toll has been exponentially higher.

The Assad regime claimed at the time that it had withdrawn its armed forces from every location except in areas where counter-terrorism operations were being enforced, and so it was in full compliance with the Arab League agreement. In reality it had unleashed its fully fury on Homs, and had increased its crackdown in Daraa, Idlib, and elsewhere.

This was the point where even the most conciliatory members of the opposition began to realize that Assad could never be trusted. This was the point where even many opposition groups that had been committed to peaceful change realized that an insurgency, or foreign intervention, were the only way out of this crisis.

Russia Backs its “Historical Friends”

What did Russia do during this critical period in the history of the Syrian conflict? On November 2nd, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he supported the Arab League initiative, but then he blamed outside forces for provoking the escalation of the conflict by arming “extremists.” It’s noteworthy that there is no evidence that this early on there were a significant amount of weapons coming from outside of Syria, except for the arms that Russia was supplying the regime. In fact, this early on in the conflict, the vast majority of rebels were defectors. It was the siege of Homs between November and February that changed this.

Then Lavrov went on to give us our key sentence – why is Russia concerned with Syria? Here was his answer:

“We are very concerned about the fate of this region because we have a lot of friends there with whom we have maintained close and warm relations for decades, with some of them – for centuries. With many countries in the region we have much in common in terms of history, culture and traditions. This is one reason why we cannot ignore what is happening there.”

Continued...........

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 05:16 PM

http://nypost.com/2015/09/19/putin-i...nother-crimea/

Putin is turning the Syrian coast into another Crimea

By Amir Taheri
.
September 19, 2015 | 8:05pm

After weeks of dancing around the issue, the Obama administration has expressed concern about “heightened military activity” by Russia in Syria.

But what if we are facing something more than “heightened military activity?” What if Moscow is preparing to give Syria the full Putin treatment?

For years, Russia has been helping Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad cling to a diminishing power structure in a shrinking territorial base without trying to impose an overall strategy.
Now, however, there are signs that Russia isn’t content to just support Assad. It wants to control Syria.

The Putin treatment is reserved for countries in Russia’s “near neighborhood” that try to break out of Moscow’s orbit and deprive it of strategic assets held for decades.

In such cases, unable to restore its past position, Russia tries to create a new situation in which it keeps a sword dangling above the head of the recalcitrant nation.

Russia’s military intervenes directly and indirectly, always with help from a segment of the local population concerned. Russia starts by casting itself as protector of an ethnic, linguistic or religious minority that demands its military intervention against a central power vilified with labels such as “fascist” and “terrorist.”

The first nation to experience the Putin treatment was Georgia in 2008, when Russian tanks moved in to save the Persian-speaking Ossetian minority and the Turkish-speaking Abkhazians from “the fascist regime” in Tbilisi.

Initially, Putin had feared that the US or the European Union might not let his war of conquest go unpunished. But nothing happened. President Obama talked of “reset” with Moscow, agreed to set up a joint committee to look into the matter and then allowed the whole thing to fade away.

Tested in Georgia with success, the Putin treatment was next applied to Ukraine, where a pro-West regime was talking of joining the European Union and even NATO. Russia intervened in Crimea to “save” its Russian-speaking majority from oppression.

Facing no opposition, Putin simply annexed Crimea before giving the Donetsk area of eastern Ukraine the same treatment, this time with the help of “Russian volunteers” coming to help fellow Russian-speakers.

In Ossetia, Putin gained control of key passages to Chechnya and upper Caucasus.

In Abkhazia, he extended Russian presence on the Black Sea.

In Crimea, he saved the Russian Navy’s largest base.

In Donetsk he obtained a political pistol aimed at the temple of the government in Kiev.

Pro-West Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is threatened after Putin helped Armenia snatch the enclave of Upper Qarabagh (Nagorno Karabakh) in Transcaucasia.

What about Syria?

The Soviet Union had a military presence in Syria since 1971, when Hafez al-Assad, father of the present despot, signed a defense pact with Moscow. The pact gave Russia mooring rights in two of Syria’s ports, Latakia and Tartus on the Mediterranean. The older Assad, however, shied away from granting Russians permanent bases.

Last year, Putin asked Bashar to let Russia build aero-naval assets on the Syrian coast to facilitate support for the regime in Damascus. Then still hopeful of surviving the civil war, Bashar managed to dodge the issue with help from his allies in Tehran.

Now, however, both Assad and the mullahs of Tehran know that they cannot fight this war much longer. Assad has publicly admitted he does not have enough men to keep the territory he still controls let alone recapture what he has lost amounting to 60% of the Syrian landmass. Reluctant to risk Iranian lives, the mullahs have sent Lebanese Hezbollah fighters and “volunteers” from Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight for Assad. But they, too, have suffered irreparable losses.

After weeks of talks between Assad and the Russians with the mullahs also engaged by both sides, it now seems that Russia has obtained what it wanted: the right to build permanent aero-naval bases on the Syrian coast. Recent satellite images show that massive construction work has already started. At the same time, Russia has won control of Bassel al-Assad airport, the second-largest in Syria, transforming it into a hub for its “air-bridge” operations spanning Iranian and Iraqi air spaces.

Russia is bringing in new aircraft and surface-to-surface missile ostensibly for transfer to Syrian forces but in reality under direct Russian control. According to estimates in the Iranian media, Russia now has some 20,000 military “technicians and advisors” in Syria.

The stage is set for the full Putin treatment. Russia no doubt looks to the 1920s scheme under which Syria was divided into five segments, with France, then the colonial power, retaining direct control only of the area between the mountains west of Damascus and the Mediterranean coast. The French called that “la Syrie utile” (useful Syria) allowing the rest of the country, much of it thinly inhabited desert to morph into ungoverned territory.

Accounting for about 15% of territory, “Useful Syria” is now home to more than half of the population, partly thanks to influx of displaced people from other parts of the country. The strip between the coast and the mountains has the added advantage of being the principal base of the Alawite community to which Assad and his clan belong.

Get ready for Russia to cast itself as the protector, not only of the Alawites but also of other minorities such as Turcoman, Armenians and, more interestingly for Moscow, Orthodox Christians who have fled Islamist terror groups such as ISIS.

Russia has always seen itself as the “Third Rome” and the last standard-bearer of Christianity against both Catholic “deviation” and Islamist menace.

By controlling a new mini-state, as a “safe haven for minorities,” Russia could insist that if Syria returns to some normality it be reconstituted as a highly decentralized state. This is what Putin is also demanding in Georgia and Ukraine.

The Syrian coast will become another Crimea, if not completely annexed, at least occupied.

Unless stopped, the Putin treatment will not end in Syria. The two next candidates could be Moldova and Latvia, both of which have large Russian-speaking minorities.

On Friday, Russian fighter jets arrived in Syria. US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter responded by saying he had a “constructive conversation” with his Russian counterpart, who insisted the buildup was “defensive in nature.” Carter said discussions would continue. In other words, Russia will continue to carve a foothold on the Mediterranean.

While President Obama practices a postmodern diplomacy of perceptions — in other words window-dressing — Putin perfects his pre-modern power play.

Putin has arranged it so that no matter what happens in Syria, he wins — and we lose.

In #Syria, #Putin will be "protecting" Russian-speaking "volunteers" (aka soldiers) from multitudes of Russian-speaking #ISIS members.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 05:26 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 05:43 PM

Footage
Just another barrel bomb, falling on civilians in #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kLe3_UmRfc …
pic.twitter.com/k1ZnZwsR8p

BreakingVideo
#Assad' air force drops bomb after bomb on densely populated areas in #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0dFJypXIz4 … pic.twitter.com/4kgkUgygpt

Update #map #Fuah #kafarya #Idlib #Syria #opposition #Regime #FatehArmy #ANF #JAN #FSA pic.twitter.com/2qImrZdhmp

Most probable source of #Russia|n Air Force Su-30SMs at #Latakia now seems to be 412th Aviation Base at Domna.

U.S.-trained Syrian fighters say their chief of staff resigned pic.twitter.com/H3pdCJD6H6 http://voc.tv/1YroVLc

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 06:25 PM

Syria Regime helicopter dropped a barrel bomb on Sakhour neighborhood in Aleppo.
http://youtu.be/_kLe3_UmRfc

Assad helicopter dropped barrel bombs on Bustan al-Pasha & Huluk district in Aleppo. #Syria
http://youtu.be/AnWG5mvLTsU

Imagine living under the roar of warplanes, bombing your city daily, non-stop for nearly 4 years. #Douma #Syria
http://youtu.be/gQ0aXu2r6gM

Clear video shows a regime warplane drop a bomb on Bustan al-Qasr district in Aleppo. #Syria
http://youtu.be/U0dFJypXIz4

Syria #Latakia mountain-warfare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQMgWHVaKs …

Syria #Idlib trench-warfare -battle of #FuahKafraya-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTxEAEMZM-I …

MAP (+ Report) for the battle of #FuahKafraya in North #Idlib.
http://archicivilians.com/2015/09/20/map-the-military-situation-in-fuah-kafarya-in-north-idlib-syria-september-20/ …

Syria #Idlib #JaF-commander accused Shiite-forces to violate ceasefire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtkN68PNbLU … … -battle of #FuahKafraya

Syria #Idlib #JaF-fighter equiped with Steyr Aug rifle -battle of #FuahKafraya-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwUTuHKZmRM …

Syria #Homs From battlefield in #Houla region
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4bojcQKqmM&feature=youtu.be …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34.893394&lon=36.522675&z=13&m=b …

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 07:00 PM

In the north, ceasefire reached for: Foua; kafraya; Binnish; Taftanaz; Taoum; Maarat Misrin; the city of Idlib; Ram Hamdan; Zardana; Shelikh

A 25-point ceasefire+agreement between Jaish al-Fateh (Nusra included) & Iran has been announced. Agreement is to be overseen by the UN.

Fighters from Zabadani should leave with their guns and a pack bag, and all heavy weapons to be destroyed. UN to oversee agreement.

The first phase will see ceasefire & then 6-month agreement, in the south: Zabadani; Madhaya; Baqeen; Sarghaya & surrounding regime bases

The strict destination of those leaving Zabadani (fighters+families+wounded) must be to Idlib.

More remarkably, the agreement stipulates that the regime will not fly helicopters or planes in those areas including to drop aid. NFZ!!

Women and children under 18 or men above 50 can leave Foua and Kafraya but they should not be more than 10,000. Regime release 500 prisoners

"Government of Iran" will work with Lebanon to bring back families that fled "illegally" to Lebanon, but must be no more than 50 families.

Agreement also includes: no arms depots near frontlines; no humanitarian blockade on Foua+Kafraya or blockade to Madhaya+Baqeen+Serghaya.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 07:39 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 08:18 PM

ISIS terror group related accounts now sharing pic of "head of 1st russian soldier". Fairy-tales of Russian propaganda are real in Syria

Russian tanker refueling jets over #Homs, #Syria https://youtu.be/6JYEmXJ60Yc

Russian cargo plane Ilyushın II 76 - T on #Damascus sky, now. #Syria pic.twitter.com/0cSrHg4JB8
It appears the aircraft was in fact an aircraft fueler-----definitely not humanitarian aid

Putin overseeing war game simulating battle with terrorists. Any resemblance to #Syria is coincidental, speculative. pic.twitter.com/krhiemPtaI

Looks like a Russian Spetsnaz was killed and beheaded if the reporting here is correct.

THERE had been early last week a report of 10 Russian bodies being returned to Crimea but the report was largely ignored.

Russia(n) Special Forces in #Syria in #Zabadani,#Homs,#Hama & #Aleppo https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2015/09/19/russian-elite-units-on-the-land-of-zabadani-homs-hama-and-aleppo/ … pic.twitter.com/v80szhwNK7

•Moscow began “quiet support” to the Syrian regime
•A Russian “stormy support” would follow to regain the initiative on the ground and recovery main cities

http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2015/09/19/620996/nr/syria
Damascus – Elijah J. Magnier:

“Al-Rai” learned that “Special Elite Russian combat forces arrived to Hama, Aleppo, Homs, Damascus, as well as Zabadani to monitor, participate and study the military map on the field and suggest future workflow Combat plans. These Special Forces submit to the operating room suggestions to determine the full plan to start the flow of further Russian special combat forces and troops on the battlefield all over the Syrian map where it is necessary”.

This development will be the largest Russian external military intervention since Afghanistan in 1979.

A very senior field commander around Zabadani city said that “there are small Russian combat units, mostly sniper unit that we call the “Ivan unit”, another reconnaissance unit, a unit of urban warfare, and advanced missiles unit in the area of operations run by the Syrian Army. ”

Ivan and Yulia belong to a Russian sniper unit that came recently to Zabadani. At the end of the day, the team left after shooting 4 deadly bullets. “I return to Aleppo where there is more action than Zabadani. Here there isn’t much left”, said Yulia before leaving Zabadani, according to the source.

“Russia is beginning with what we define as a” quiet support ” supplying advanced technology and preparing a spearhead force before reaching a further level we call the” stormy Support “. We expect a large presence of troops that will be supported by Russian Air Force. There are around 2500 Russian fighters, military expert and consultant in Syria. The number is expected to go much higher in the near future “, confirm the source that is in contact with the Russian units on the Syrian ground.

“There are two aspects for the Russian intervention in Syria: In the first, the front line should be reinforced, maintained and is expected later to recover more lands and lost cities. The second is to hunt and bomb the Islamic State (ISIS) group leaders as well as other extremist groups in Syria, without exception. There are no red lines for the Russian operational tactics against terrorism that may extend to Iraq if necessary. The Kremlin has decided to face and fight terrorism by all means and is determine to eliminate, not to contain, ISIS. The Russians are aware of the necessity of cooperation with the U.S. led coalition over the sky of Syria to prevent unnecessarily accidents “, the source said.

The senior commander explained, “Israel and the United States are also concerned about the possibility that Hezbollah could benefit from the advanced Russian military equipment pouring into Syria. As far as it concerns us, Damascus and Hezbollah are strategically linked and share the same destiny. Any sophisticated weapon owned by Syria and Iran that an organized but irregular force, like Hezbollah, can use in case of war against Israel is already in our possession. Israel is raising the alarm by saying that its “national security” could be in jeopardy if Hezbollah has this or that technology or could benefit from Russia’s presence to transport more weapons into Lebanon. Russia’s answer is that its own national security is already in jeopardy due to terrorism expansion. Russia is not fighting a battle but a war on terror on Syrian soil and elsewhere and is present in a hostile environment. Russia will pursue and won’t give up upon in this war, in Syria, regardless any possible international pressure to persuade it otherwise”.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 08:33 PM

Obama and Kerry should reread this comment from above---that is the Russian strategy clear and as concise as one wants it---

There are two aspects for the Russian intervention in Syria: In the first, the front line should be reinforced, maintained and is expected later to recover more lands and lost cities. The second is to hunt and bomb the Islamic State (ISIS) group leaders as well as other extremist groups in Syria, without exception. There are no red lines for the Russian operational tactics against terrorism that may extend to Iraq if necessary. The Kremlin has decided to face and fight terrorism by all means and is determine to eliminate, not to contain, ISIS. The Russians are aware of the necessity of cooperation with the U.S. led coalition over the sky of Syria to prevent unnecessarily accidents “, the source said.

SO now is the US providing air cover and tactical ground support to Russian special forces??????

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 08:51 PM

Another air refueling by Russian air tanker----
I have to say: The footage is #unconfirmed.
But: similar video from yesterday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ksdh38h5-I … pic.twitter.com/aV8MJhPXCX

Syria, #FSA The First Coastal Division infography https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/09/20/syria-fsa-the-first-coastal-division-infography/ …

Syria #Damascus #JaI destroyed T-72 tank in #Assad-suburb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHTTQNQjWs0 …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.585183&lon=36.378500&z=16&m=b …

Massive multiple explosions rocking north #Aleppo countryside and near #Kilis..

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 08:58 PM

Numbers-Stations.com @Spy_Stations

Russian AIr force over Syria. You can hear their radio coms in background.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JYEmXJ60Yc …

I would say, this is one Il-78 "Midas" and four Su-24 "Fencer".
Any other suggestions?!

Well. Acc. to video filmers, planes fly N-W over Talbisah.
So rather ferry from Damascus to the coastal regions.

Any previous images/data of SyAAF escorting Russian transports in/out of #Syria?

Similar video from yesterday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ksdh38h5-I … pic.twitter.com/aV8MJhPXCX

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 09:21 PM

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/424283/putin-syria-obama-military-talks-weakness

Obama’s Pathetic Cave-in to Putin’s Power Play in Syria

Elliott Abrams

September 18, 2015 4:26 PM

There is a complaint against Obama foreign policy that goes “all our allies have been alienated, and are scared by the lack of American leadership and our indifference to their security, and all Obama does is cozy up to our enemies.” Jeb Bush has asked audiences, “Name a country where we have a better relationship now than we did seven years ago,” and audiences answer back “Iran!” In pursing this policy of cooperating with our enemies rather than our friends, Obama is now going to include the horrific issue of Syria. A central pillar of American foreign policy for over 50 years has been to keep the Russians out of the Middle East. Now we appear to be welcoming their return as a military power there. The Obama reaction has been first to have Secretary of State John Kerry telephone Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov to express concern, then to have Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter call his own Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, and next to have military-to-military talks with Russia.

This is amazing. It undermines a half-century of policy and broadcasts weakness and irresolution to both enemies (Iran, China) and friends (Israel, Jordan, Egypt, the Gulf states). But it certainly isn’t surprising: Weakness and irresolution have in fact been the heart of U.S. policy in Syria in the Obama years. When the (mostly Sunni) people of Syria rose up peacefully against the Alawite, Iran-and-Hezbollah backed Assad regime in 2011 and Assad began to kill his own population, Obama did nothing. As the deaths mounted and his own advisers — Clinton, Panetta, Petraeus, Dempsey — advised action to build a non-jihadi rebel force, he did nothing. When Assad did not react to Obama’s chemical-weapons red line, Obama backed down, not Assad. And so the deaths and the refugees have mounted into a humanitarian catastrophe that was avoidable. Now Putin has made his move, and he is not showing weakness and irresolution. Moreover, the growth of ISIS is impossible to imagine absent this Obama policy. It is only because the Shiite-backed Assad regime is killing Sunnis by the tens and hundreds of thousands while we and the rest of the world watch impassively that ISIS has been able to rally so many Sunnis to its banner. Any pretended “way forward” or “diplomatic solution” to Syria that addresses ISIS but not the Assad regime will fail, because the regime’s murderous brutality — including its continuing use of chemical weapons — guarantees more recruits for ISIS.

Continued…………………………………….

Scathing. Knowing real things not popular anymore- How the Decline of International Studies Hurts American Security https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2015-06-16/decline-international-studies …

Real reason Netanyahu's going to Moscow tomorrow is he can't trust US to do anything in Syria, so he's got no choice but to turn to Putin.

OUTLAW 09

09-20-2015, 09:30 PM

CrowBat

09-21-2015, 06:21 AM

CrowBat

09-21-2015, 06:53 AM

•Moscow began “quiet support” to the Syrian regimeMoscow is providing 'quiet support' for Assad already since 2011...

•A Russian “stormy support” would follow to regain the initiative on the ground and recovery main citiesLooking forward for that, really.

For two years, the IRGC-QF - a force with far more extensive 'in situ' experience and better connections to locals than Russians can ever dream about - was trying to make do with 4-5 'brigades' only (including its own regulars and whatever it could recruit elsewhere). It was all the time struggling to compensate lack of firepower and supplies with superior tactics. It gave up this spring.

If Russians think they'll do better with a regiment - or even a reinforced brigade - they are more than welcome to try.

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 09:14 AM

This is going to get very ugly very soon for Russian ground troops—the first rocket attack against their airbase was the first indicator---

News
Syrian rebels hope for another "#Afghanistan" as Russian troops invade #Syria.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0RL0E720150921?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews …

Tymchuk: Russia sent another trainload of weapons & ammunition to its forces in Ukraine and will redeploy 190 of it’s mercenaries to #Syria.

According to Tymchuk the Don cossacks based in #Luhansk area received orders to send back 190 fighters to RU to further transfer to Syria.

1,700 #Russia troops fixing up #Syria port facility. But "no link" to upcoming intervention, says General Staff. http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2814812

Begs the question--just how many Russian troops does it take to swap out a light bulb?

1699 with 1 holding the ladder steady=1700

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 09:25 AM

SO exchange for assisting Assad Russia gets what????--unlimited right t drll for oil and gas???

Russian company Soyuzneftegaz started drilling operations in #Syria near Latakia according to a report

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 09:28 AM

This article needs to be seriously read by Obama, Kerry and the entire 700 person NSC.

http://www.mei.edu/content/at/more-russian-aid-assad-chasing-impossible-dream?utm_content=buffer79a0e

More Russian Aid to Assad: Chasing the Impossible Dream

By Robert S. Ford | Senior Fellow - The Middle East Institute
Sep 15, 2015

Russia’s recent increase in military aid to the Syrian government is an extension of previous Russian policy on Syria; what is different is not the thrust of Russian policy but the scale of the aid. This ramp-up carries new risks to those hoping for a real political solution to the longstanding Syrian conflict and to those hoping to see the threat of terror groups operating in Syria contained. There is little likelihood of a major U.S.-Russia military confrontation over Syria, but the likely Russian game plan carries new risks for the American administration seeking to contain the Islamic State and eventually see stability restored in Syria.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov himself observed that Russian military assistance to Syria is not new. Indeed, the Syrian Air Force's helicopters and jets that have intensively bombarded Syrian cities are Russian. The Syrian Army has for decades used Russian armor. The Syrian government now has very few foreign exchange reserves, and it is unclear how it can pay the Russians for the new equipment. The new build-up may well have figured on the agenda of the visit of Iranian point man on Syria, Revolutionary Guards Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani, to Moscow earlier in the summer.

Russian policy since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution has been consistent: it may not agree with all the regime's brutality, but it seeks to preserve the Syrian state as a Russian ally and as a pillar against Islamic extremists. Moscow sees no alternative to keeping President Bashar al-Assad in place to preserve the state. Unlike the Americans, the Russians won't stipulate that their formal aid program be used only against the Islamic State. The Russians have always perceived the broader armed opposition to the Syrian government to be illegitimate. They especially condemn Islamist rebels, making little distinction between conservative Islamists, such as those in the Islamic Front, and jihadi groups such as al-Qa‘ida's Nusra Front and the Islamic State. In Moscow's eyes, they all are terrorists. The Russian policy goal in Syria is for the (flagging) Syrian government's army to join with remaining secular elements in the Syrian opposition and with help from the international community destroy the Islamist armed groups in Syria.
The Russians tried to sell this idea to selected Syrian opposition groups in a series of discussions in Moscow dating back to January 2015. The Russians even made clear that they would not object to some changes in the Syrian government, but they never urged that Assad himself be compelled to leave or that Assad's intelligence/security apparatus, whose brutality started the conflict in 2011 and with which the Russians have a longstanding relationship, be substantially changed. The Russian ideas got little traction, aside from some of the tamest elements of the Syrian opposition that carry no influence with any rebel fighting factions.

After reaching a dead end with the Syrian opposition, the Russians tried to convince Saudi Arabia and Western countries that Assad and his government should be integrated into the U.S.-led coalition's campaign against the Islamic State. The Russians make a legalistic argument based on the sovereignty of the Syrian state. While Iran enthusiastically supports the Russian idea, and has floated its own peace proposal for Syria close to what the Russians envision, the Saudis were not receptive. Lavrov mumbling that the Saudis were "idiots" when he thought he was off-mike at a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir in August probably didn't help the Russian diplomatic effort.
If the thrust of Russian policy is consistent, the question remains why the Russians have changed the scale and tempo of their military assistance. The Russian aid at least in part is to bolster a weakening Syrian government. Assad himself in a national speech on July 26 admitted that his army was tiring and had to retreat from some parts of the country to continue to defend the more vital areas. The shift in battlefield dynamics in 2015 has been as remarkable as it was unexpected to many analysts.

The Russians’ long game is also likely the same: preserve the Syrian state, which they perceive in turn requires keeping Assad in place, and working with the Americans and countries in the region, and with cooperative Syrians (including the acceptable opposition), allow Syrians themselves to tinker with the nametags in the lesser parts of the Syrian government. Greater Russian assistance would also perhaps boost Russian influence in any diplomatic talks at the expense of Iran, which many Syrians and foreign states perceive holds preeminent sway in Damascus.

The immediate impact of the Russian escalation will be increased hard fighting; the Syrian armed opposition is not going to stop attacking the Syrian government's positions even if the Russians intervene directly with their own forces. It is unlikely that the opposition's principal foreign backers in Ankara, Riyadh, and Doha will halt their aid to the rebels either. Countries like Turkey understand how lethal force and diplomacy are not mutually exclusive but rather can blend together in finding satisfactory political deals. They will understand that Russia seeks to exploit an improved military standing to strengthen its position in any subsequent negotiations.

As Washington considers its own options, it faces significant constraints. Unless it threatens drastic action against Baghdad—with all the implications of the effort against the Islamic State there—the Iranian-Iraqi airspace corridor is open full-time for Russian urgent air shipments. Russian President Putin has noticed that unlike in Afghanistan, the Americans won't transfer surface-to-air missiles to the Syrian rebels. Thus, if Putin decides that direct Russian air involvement in the Syrian fighting is necessary to secure Russian goals, he will expect fewer immediate operational risks than his predecessors in Afghanistan did.

Some in Washington may wonder if the United States should join with the Russian military against the Islamic State. This is an extension of the idea of joining with Assad against the Islamic State, and carries even more risks. First, as should be evident by now, air strikes against the Islamic State will not destroy it. Second, given the Russian perception that Islamist fighters are basically indistinguishable and that one of Russia’s goals is to bolster the tiring Syrian military against its enemies, Russian direct military action would probably eventually extend to non-jihadi elements of the armed opposition such as the Islamic Front's factions. American cooperation with Russia would mean in turn that those groups would reject American-trained Syrian fighters whose goal is only to fight the Islamic State. We already have seen the fierce reaction of the Nusra Front to American-trained fighters from the opposition’s 30th division. Yet the only realistic option to contain and ultimately eliminate the Islamic Front in Syria is Syrian fighters.Finally, the American administration will have to consider how to respond to what are likely to be greater Russian efforts to sell Russian/Iranian ideas about the contours of a peace deal in Syria. It will be important to remember that even if its foreign allies accept Assad staying in a transition role, the Syrian armed opposition no longer will, and there are enough weapons floating around Syria and Iraq to sustain fighting for a long time. The Russian goal of maintaining the existing Syrian state with a few cosmetic changes and bolstering the flagging Syrian government military with help from secular oppositionists is impossible; secular rebel fighters such as those operating in Hama, Dara‘a, and Homs won't join an Assad military effort, ever. For better or worse, Assad has become a symbol among opposition ranks. Even Assad's core constituency, the Syrian Alawi community, is growing weary of the Syrian president.

And if the existing Syrian Army with its Hezbollah allies can't even retake the largely flattened town of Zabadani on the Lebanese border, what are the chances that they could move hundreds of miles east across unfriendly territories to secure central and eastern Syria from the Islamic State? And should the Russians send in small numbers of ground forces to help, would Washington perceive that to be helpful in cutting jihadi recruitment, restoring stability in Syria, and staunching the refugee outflow? It is hard to see how pragmatists in the administration could answer yes to these questions.

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 10:03 AM

Moscow is providing 'quiet support' for Assad already since 2011...

Looking forward for that, really.

For two years, the IRGC-QF - a force with far more extensive 'in situ' experience and better connections to locals than Russians can ever dream about - was trying to make do with 4-5 'brigades' only (including its own regulars and whatever it could recruit elsewhere). It was all the time struggling to compensate lack of firepower and supplies with superior tactics. It gave up this spring.

If Russians think they'll do better with a regiment - or even a reinforced brigade - they are more than welcome to try.

Agree ---if the existing Syrian Army with its Hezbollah allies can't even retake the largely flattened town of Zabadani on the Lebanese border, what are the chances that they could move hundreds of miles east across unfriendly territories to secure central and eastern Syria from the Islamic State with whatever the number of Russian troops that are provided?

Valid point--only if one looks at Chechnya and eastern Ukraine--Russian flattens everything in their way ---valid question is if there is not a high number of troops on the ground then it must be done by BM30s and airstrikes.

It is estimated Russia has already 20K plus troops in the country in a largely support role--BUT what if they flip the roles and merge with two brigades of Russian Spetsnaz/marine/airborne combat experienced units from the Ukraine that are inbound???

The Ukrainian military is reporting that Russian mercenaries are now reshifting to Syria--the first being 190 Don Cossacks who have been alerted to move to Syria.

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 10:11 AM

This article contains some really good Russian social media links to support their OSINT work in the article.

https://en.informnapalm.org/russian-military-assignment-from-novorossiysk-to-syria/

Russian Military Assignment from Novorossiysk to Syria

Russian Military Assessment

47 mins ago

During the recent several days the rumor concerning the Russian military participation in the Syrian conflict has been actively discussed in the international press. A lot was written and shown on this topic. Our attention was drawn by the material located on the website of some Ivan Sidorenko entitled ‘Syria, Latakia – Syrian Arab Army / National Defense Forces Some Battle Footage from Today‘

This material contains several noteworthy moments, in particular the offscreen negotiation in Russian: time 2:03 – ‘Come on faster’, 2:06 – ‘Move on’, 2:10 – ‘Once again! Repeat!’, 2:30 – ‘Paulin, Paulin, we are moving forward’. In addition to that, the Soviet/Russian armed vehicles are shown. However, this is not strange. There is no secret that Assad’s army both previously and now is armed by the Kremlin friends and the deployment is provided with the use of the Russian large landing ships mainly from the Novorossiysk naval base.

The most attention was drawn by the armored fighting vehicle BTR-82А in standard Russian colors seen in the clip, time 0:40–0:43, 1:15–1:20 and 2:15–2:22. The armored fighting vehicles of this modification were put into service by the Russian army only several years ago. A number of the Russian military units are long waiting for the new armored fighting vehicles to replace old amortized junk.

It is known that the armored fighting vehicles BTR-82А were taken into use mainly by priority Russian military units, motorized rifle and intelligence brigade battalions. In the Southern Military District units these are the 7th occupational military base (occupied Abkhazia, Georgia), the 136th brigade (Republic of Dagestan), the 20th brigade (Republic of Chechnya); in the Central Military District – the 15th ‘Peacemakers’ brigade (Roshchinskiy, Samara Oblast), the 23rd brigade (Totskoye, Orenburg Oblast); in the Western Military District – the 27th brigade (Mosrentgen, Moscow Oblast).

As a result of the shallow analysis and comparison of the BTR-82А, seen in the material from Syria with similar vehicles that are in use in the above mentioned Russian military units, the closest similarity was found with the armored fighting vehicles of the 27th motorized rifle brigade (military unit No. 61899, located in the Moscow region).

In particular, in the group ‘Military unit 61899 Sevastopol 27 OMSBR. Brothers-in-arms’ the pictures of the BTR-82А with camouflage and board numbers of white color written according to the pattern identical with this brigade were found.

Notice: In different military units the camouflage of the vehicles and the pattern of writing board numbers are different. For instance, BTR of the 23th brigade has numbers written with red paint whereas BTR of the 7th military base has numbers written with white paint in bold.

The identification shown by us is not the evidence, but a number of side criteria – identical camouflage, commonly recognized type of vehicles board numbering in the Russian army, identical patterns of the fonts and colors and also the offscreen Russian voice confirms the supposition made above. Maybe soon we will learn more details concerning ‘a military assignment from Novorossiysk to Syria’ of the crew of the 1st vehicle from the 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st battalion of the 27th brigade.

P.S. Update: As a result of the additional OSINT investigation the correspondence concerning the sending of the servicemen to Syria for 3–4 month long trips with ‘not bad salaries’ was found on the mother forum of the Russian military servicemen from the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade (February, 2013).

Thus, we have one more indirect proof that the video from Syria supposedly shows a BTR-82А unit of the Russian 27th brigade on the ‘Novo-Syrian’ assignment, rumored way back in 2013.

CrowBat

09-21-2015, 11:03 AM

SO exchange for assisting Assad Russia gets what????--unlimited right t drll for oil and gas???

Russian company Soyuzneftegaz started drilling operations in #Syria near Latakia according to a report
Drilling for oil in Syria is one story; exploiting that oil - entirely different one. Just ask the Croatian company INA (i.e. INA's Hungarian quasi-owners).

Agree ---if the existing Syrian Army with its Hezbollah allies can't even retake the largely flattened town of Zabadani on the Lebanese border, what are the chances that they could move hundreds of miles east across unfriendly territories to secure central and eastern Syria from the Islamic State with whatever the number of Russian troops that are provided?

Valid point--only if one looks at Chechnya and eastern Ukraine--Russian flattens everything in their way ---valid question is if there is not a high number of troops on the ground then it must be done by BM30s and airstrikes.Then you have an even better example - and then one that saw the first significant Russian involvement in this war (arguably, the latter was completely ignored by all of the West, its glorious media and all the fancy blogs...):

Ever heard of some place called Douma?

Douma didn't fall after three years of 'drive throughs' by tanks of the (former) Republican Guards Division, sporadic aerial bombardment, and nearly uninterrupted artillery shelling. Then the Russian combat engineers were sent in, early this year. Russians flattened most of the place - and about 800 insurgents are still holding out there.

...BTW BM-30s were deployed in Syria too, already. More specifically: in Homs, and then in Aleppo. In Homs, insurgents gave up only after negotiations - and were then granted free withdrawal to Rastan/Talbiseh Pocket. And in Aleppo... well, it should be know that Aleppo is not only holding out, but meanwhile it's the regime that's in deep trouble there...

It is estimated Russia has already 20K plus troops in the country in a largely support role--BUT what if they flip the roles and merge with two brigades of Russian Spetsnaz/marine/airborne combat experienced units from the Ukraine that are inbound???
Again: I'm very much looking forward to see that happen.

I'm especially curious to see where are Russians going to do 'much better' than 2 brigades of IRGC regulars, 3 brigades of US-trained Iraqi veterans, 2 brigades of Afghan veterans (latter 5 all run by the IRGC-QF), and 3 brigades of Hezbollah - all of them supported by all the heavy weaponry of the former Republican Guards Division and the 4th Armoured that's still around...

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 11:33 AM

Agree ---if the existing Syrian Army with its Hezbollah allies can't even retake the largely flattened town of Zabadani on the Lebanese border, what are the chances that they could move hundreds of miles east across unfriendly territories to secure central and eastern Syria from the Islamic State with whatever the number of Russian troops that are provided?

Valid point--only if one looks at Chechnya and eastern Ukraine--Russian flattens everything in their way ---valid question is if there is not a high number of troops on the ground then it must be done by BM30s and airstrikes.

It is estimated Russia has already 20K plus troops in the country in a largely support role--BUT what if they flip the roles and merge with two brigades of Russian Spetsnaz/marine/airborne combat experienced units from the Ukraine that are inbound???

The Ukrainian military is reporting that Russian mercenaries are now reshifting to Syria--the first being 190 Don Cossacks who have been alerted to move to Syria.

As I indicated either the Chechnya or the eastern Ukraine assault model--flatten everything that moves--no one is going to complain as most towns and villages are already damaged besides "Russia is fighting IS"-that will be via the use of cluster and thermobaric munitions.

Novaya says Russia is planning collective assault in Syria with Russian air and ground technical support http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/70001.html …

davidbfpo

09-21-2015, 01:41 PM

Outlaw09 you refer to:
It is estimated Russia has already 20K plus troops in the country in a largely support role....

Nowhere have I seen anyone else cite such large numbers. 20k in support roles would be a significant part of the Assad forces.

davidbfpo

09-21-2015, 01:46 PM

Over at WoTR an assessment of the Russain role, in summary:
By upping the ante, Putin hopes to deter the West from encroaching too far on Russian interests in Syria. But Russia is not eager to fight alongside Assad on the ground. Expect its direct role in the conflict to remain limited.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/how-russias-gambit-in-syria-changes-the-game/?

I still think the Russian deployment now complicates the external, Western advocacy of no fly zones and is an attempt to secure Assad's heartland in the coastal mountains.

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 02:18 PM

Outlaw09 you refer to:

Nowhere have I seen anyone else cite such large numbers. 20k in support roles would be a significant part of the Assad forces.

Will dig out the article link and post it-----remember though at first Putin declared that there had been no decision on the troop numbers yet, then today suddenly 1700 are being admitted to by Russia at just being at the airport "supposedly in support roles".

Just where in the heck did suddenly 1700 appear out of nowhere--especially if say they were to have been airlifted in--with not even two flights a day---1700 would have taken awhile.

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 02:26 PM

Outlaw09 you refer to:

Nowhere have I seen anyone else cite such large numbers. 20k in support roles would be a significant part of the Assad forces.

Russia is bringing in new aircraft and surface-to-surface missile ostensibly for transfer to Syrian forces but in reality under direct Russian control. According to estimates in the Iranian media, Russia now has some 20,000 military “technicians and advisors” in Syria.

http://nypost.com/2015/09/19/putin-i...nother-crimea/
Putin is turning the Syrian coast into another Crimea
By Amir Taheri September 19, 2015 | 8:05pm

For those who laughed at "thousands".
Russia doesn't deny, having 1700 in #Tartus alone.
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2814812
More in Latakia, DAM, etc.

NOW comes the drones—a la eastern Ukraine-----
Exclusive: Russia starts drone surveillance missions in Syria - U.S. officials http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0RL1CI20150921?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter …

Social media picked up last week the combined use of Russian fighter aircraft and Russian drones via a insurgent video---was largely over ignored by Western MSM until Russia made their formal move into Syria.

Let see---2000 troops up from the initially reported "few hundred", initially six T90s, initially only four fighter aircraft ie SU30s---

The Russian force in Syria is building by the day - latest reports: two dozen jets (Su-25 & Su-30), nine T90 tank, 2000 people.

Russian "masking operations"---- in full swing now.

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 02:40 PM

This article actually underlines the Obama Iran Deal critics who stated Iran would use the unfrozen funds for terror groups.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/boosted-by-nuke-deal-iran-ups-funding-to-hezbollah-hamas/

Boosted by nuke deal, Iran ups funding to Hezbollah, Hamas

Operating on assumption sanctions will be lifted, Tehran increases support to proxies, while freezing out Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal

By Avi Issacharoff September 21, 2015, 10:04 am 4

On Sunday, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, arrived in Iran for talks on the nuclear agreement, as part of what appears to be an attempt by the UN nuclear watchdog to evaluate whether Iran ran a military nuclear program in the past.

Amano is expected to meet with various Iranian nuclear scientists for answers on this very subject. On December 15, ahead of the lifting of crippling economic sanctions on Tehran, he is slated to present the world with definitive answers that will determine whether Iran complied with the terms of a nuclear deal signed on July 15. But the Islamic Republic is not waiting for a green light from Amano or the international community, and is working under the assumption that the sanctions will be lifted.

Since the deal was signed, Iran has significantly increased its financial support for two of the largest terror groups in the region that have become political players, Hamas and Hezbollah. In the years before the deal was signed, the crippling sanctions limited this support, which had significantly diminished along with Iran’s economy. But Tehran’s belief that tens, or hundreds, of billions of dollars will flow into the country in the coming years as a result of sanctions relief has led to a decision to boost the cash flow to these terror organizations.

This support, for example, has enabled Hezbollah to obtain highly developed new armaments, including advanced technologies that many militaries around the world would envy. Al-Rai, a Kuwaiti newspaper, reported Saturday that Hezbollah has received all the advanced weaponry that Syria has obtained from the Russians. The report cited a security source involved in the fighting in Zabadani, on the Syria-Lebanon border, where Hezbollah is fighting the al-Nusra Front, the Islamic State, and other groups. It is evidently the growing Iranian financial support that is enabling the Lebanese Shiite militia to purchase advanced weapons, including ones that were hitherto outside of its reach.

The increased Iranian financial support for Hezbollah in the wake of the deal is not unrelated to other political developments in the region. The growing sense of security in Iran with regard to its political status has also been bolstered by a Russian decision to increase its involvement in Syria, and may be what drove Iran to send hundreds of members of its Revolutionary Guard Corps to play an active role in the Syria fighting. Iran, along with Hezbollah and Moscow, has decided to dispatch sizable forces to the Syrian front in the past few weeks to prevent the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime.

The Shiite-Russia axis has been anxiously watching the Islamic State creep toward Damascus in recent months, and saw the territory controlled by Assad, an important ally, diminished to the coastal region of Latakia south of the capital. The Iranians and Russians grasped that not only was Damascus endangered, but also access to the Alawite regions, from Homs to Damascus — thus the urgency for intervention, including with troops on the ground.

The high morale and sense of security among the Iranians in the wake of the deal don’t stop with increased support of Hamas and Hezbollah. Today, Iran is the main, and likely only, power attempting to build terror cells to fight Israel on the Syrian Golan Heights, in areas under Assad’s control. This does not mean that the Syrian president is aware of these attempts or green-lighted them. But for Israel, that does not matter. Tehran is investing more effort and money after the nuclear deal to carry out attacks against Israel from the Golan, even under Assad’s nose.

As regards the Palestinians, in the past two months, Iran has sent suitcases of cash – literally – to Hamas’s military wing in Gaza. Not everyone is happy about this, including some Hamas officials. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, who was always the man who controlled the money, has found himself outside the circle of Iranian funding over the summer. Tehran, which was none too pleased by his visit to Saudi Arabia and meeting with King Salman, decided to take revenge on him in an original way. It bypassed Mashaal and has handed over the suitcases, by way of couriers, directly to the leaders of the group’s military wing in the Gaza Strip.

The Hamas military leaders, for their part, are happy about two things: First, the money they are receiving during a difficult economic period in Gaza; second, the opportunity to weaken Mashaal and his cronies, who have been living in luxury in Qatar and dictating to Hamas in Gaza what to do and what not to do, who to get closer to (Saudi Arabia) and who to stay away from (Iran).

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 03:07 PM

Netanyahu tells Putin: I came to Moscow to prevent misunderstandings between IDF and Russian… http://dlvr.it/CD3rVP pic.twitter.com/AMlTcPlu9F

‘Our main goal is to protect the Syrian state" Putin told Netanyahu. Fear of implosion seems to be main driver of Russia's military move.

Putin tells Netanyahu: "we know that the Syrian army is in a situation such that it is incapable of opening a new front."

Begs the question are the new IRGC and Russian troops going to open a new front that Putin claims Assad could not do?????

In addition to drones and SA-22s, Russians now have two dozen Su-25 and supersonic Su-24 attack aircraft at airbase in Latakia, #Syria

Translation: Russia sent an electronic intelligence and warfare ship to Syria. https://twitter.com/amirbohbot/status/645903419031449600 …

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 03:08 PM

Humor-------

US position on Syria

2011: Assad must go

2015: Assad must go, but first let's solve ISIS, get Iran deal, fix climate change & settle Mars

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 04:05 PM

Mon Sep 21, 2015 10:57am EDT

Netanyahu, Putin aim to prevent accidental Israeli-Russian clashes in Syria

NOVO-OGARYOVO, Russia | By Maria Tsvetkova

Reuters/Ivan Sekretarev/Pool

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday to discuss ways of avoiding any unintended clashes in Syria between Israel and Russian forces supporting President Bashar al-Assad.

Emphasizing the importance of the visit, Netanyahu took along with him the chief of Israel's armed forces and the general in charge of Israeli military intelligence.

A rapid Russian build-up in Syria, which regional sources have said includes warplanes and anti-aircraft systems, worries Israel, whose jets have on occasion bombed the neighboring Arab country to foil suspected handovers of advanced arms to Assad's Lebanese guerrilla allies Hezbollah.

Ahead of Netanyahu's meeting with Putin, a former adviser to the Israeli leader said he would try to work out "ground rules" for keeping the countries' forces from accidentally trading fire.

"I'm here because of the difficult security situation, which is becoming increasingly complex on our northern border," Netanyahu told Putin in the Russian president's residence of Novo-Ogaryovo outside Moscow.

He told Putin he was in Russia to prevent "confusion between your forces and our forces in the region".

A U.S. official told Reuters that U.S.-Israeli coordination allowed the allies to share classified technologies for identifying Russian aircraft over Syria: "We know how to spot them clearly and quickly," the official said.

The United States, which along with its allies has been flying missions against Islamic State insurgents in Syria, has also been holding so-called "deconfliction" talks with Russia.

NIGHT AND DAY

Netanyahu said on his Facebook page he had told Putin about Israel's policy of striking at suspected threats from the Syrian Golan. "Given these circumstances, I came to Russia, to make clear our policy and also to enable that there be no misunderstanding between our forces."

Putin said Russia's actions in the Middle East would always be "responsible".

Two U.S. officials told Reuters Russia had started flying surveillance missions with drone aircraft in Syria in what appeared to be Moscow's first air operations in Syria since beginning its build up. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, could not say how many aircraft were involved.

The Netanyahu ex-adviser said Israel worried that Russia's reinforcement of Assad in the conflict, now in its fifth year, could effectively create an axis between its long-standing enemies, Hezbollah and Iran, and Moscow.

Israel is also concerned that top-of-the-line Russian military hardware now being deployed could benefit Hezbollah and one day be turned against the Jewish state.

"Our policy is to do everything to stop weapons from being sent to Hezbollah," Netanyahu said.

Putin, who shares Western concern over the spread of Islamic State influence, has pledged to continue military support for Assad, assistance that Russia says is in line with international law. Russia has been focusing forces on Syria's coast, where Moscow keeps a big Mediterranean naval base.

The Netanyahu ex-adviser, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue, said any understandings reached with Putin "could come down to Israel and Russia agreeing to limit themselves to defined areas of operation in Syria, or even that they fly at daytime and we fly at night".

One of the main Iranian IRC geo political goals in Syria is to maintain the bridgehead to Hezbollah from Iran thus protecting the Khomeini "Green Crescent".

They will never allow that bridge to Hezbollah to be broken--NOT so sure Putin understands the urgency and the not so subtle threat from Israel towards Russia if in fact Russia is supporting Iran in that endeavor.

CrowBat

09-21-2015, 04:12 PM

Outlaw09 you refer to:

Nowhere have I seen anyone else cite such large numbers. 20k in support roles would be a significant part of the Assad forces.
Indeed: that would be equal to about 30% of Assad's active combatants...

In addition to drones and SA-22s, Russians now have two dozen Su-25 and supersonic Su-24 attack aircraft at airbase in Latakia, #Syria... no trace of Su-25s there, and two gangs of Fencers that overflew Iran and Iraq on the way to Syria (where they were captured by videos while refuelling from RuAF Il-78 tankers over Homs), on 18 and 19 September wore Syrian markings...

EDIT, video in question can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JYEmXJ60Yc

(Pause a few times to ID Su-24s; sadly, from this range and aspect, it's impossible to say if their camo is Syrian too, or that of the RuAF)

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 04:20 PM

Check the date of this article and then compare it to the current lack of an apparent US foreign policy—no good at all-----------

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2013/12/13/russias-return-to-the-middle-east/

Nature Abhors a Vaccuum

Russia’s Return to the Middle East

2013/12/13

Michael Weiss

U.S. fatigue and distraction in the Middle East has made ample room for Russia to step in as the new patron, power-broker and custodian of the region. Washington should think twice about welcoming this development.

Russia is back. At least that’s what they say—especially the Russians. 2013 marks the year that the Kremlin reasserted its power abroad in ways not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and nowhere has this reassertion been more obvious than in the Middle East. From Syria to Egypt to Iran to Israel, Moscow is now seen to be moving in on America’s turf, usurping the only superpower’s traditional role as safeguard of a region that, whether or not it cares to admit it, has always looked to the United States to solve its problems. But now a new patron has arrived in the neighborhood with the offer of advanced weaponry and a cold disregard for how dictatorial regimes choose to conduct their “internal” affairs. Unlike Washington, this patron has shown a willingness to stand by its friends in extremity and is more than happy to wage diplomatic war with the West if those friends’ survival is ever called into question. Russia’s restoration in the Middle East has been built upon America’s abdication.

Without a doubt, the crowning ceremony was the Kremlin’s deft ownership of international diplomacy on the 18-month crisis in Syria, one that has so far killed more than 120,000 people, including by the repeated use of chemical weapons, and yet has remarkably culminated in the re-legitimization of the person responsible for it, Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian civil war— particularly the White House’s inept and improvisational response to it—has accidentally transformed Putin into a major power-broker for the post-Arab Spring Middle East. (This is no small feat considering that Sunni Muslim antipathy toward Russia is at a record high because of Syria.) It has turned Moscow into the new hub for geopolitical influencing in the region, the world capital where the Egyptian general staff, the Saudi intelligence chief, the Israeli prime minister and even now the U.S.-backed Syrian opposition all feel they must pay call in order to get things done. And while it’s true that Russia hasn’t the GDP, military reach, or reputation to completely hobble U.S. influence in the Middle East, it doesn’t need to do that to pose a threat to U.S. interests. Putin’s objective is to offer himself as a steady alternative to a fickle Obama: a partner in arms deals and Security Council obstruction who won’t run away or downgrade a relationship over such trivia as human rights, mass murder or coups d’état. Putin has apologized for and facilitated the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the 21st century under the guise of international law and a respect for state sovereignty. This is an invaluable friend for a dictator to have in his corner.

An old anecdote has it that in the dying days of Communism, a senior Syrian official was found wandering the halls of the Kremlin saying, “We regret the Soviet collapse more than the Russians do.” The Syrian-Russian relationship was always rather complicated, full of mutual suspicion and attempts by Moscow to impose an ideology that Hafez al-Assad didn’t much care for, in exchange for military and intelligence assistance that Syria couldn’t do without. But Damascus isn’t just a resurrected strategic ally following years of desuetude under the Yeltsin government; it is Putin’s last-stand client in the region against what he sees as American hegemony. The Cheka’s old hold on Damascus looms large in Putin’s imagination, as does the precipitous collapse of Moscow Centre’s influence abroad. In interviews, he often recalls how, as a young KGB officer, he was stranded in Dresden when the Wall came down and Germans tried to storm the KGB rezidentura. “Moscow [was] silent” was his ashen-faced pronouncement on that occasion. Putin then famously “joked” upon assuming the presidency in 2000 that the security organs had now seized control of the government. Moscow won’t be silent again. Syria has amplified its voice.

Continued................

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 04:43 PM

Indeed: that would be equal to about 30% of Assad's active combatants...

... no trace of Su-25s there, and two gangs of Fencers that overflew Iran and Iraq on the way to Syria (where they were captured by videos while refuelling from RuAF Il-78 tankers over Homs), on 18 and 19 September wore Syrian markings...

EDIT, video in question can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JYEmXJ60Yc

(Pause a few times to ID Su-24s; sadly, from this range and aspect, it's impossible to say if their camo is Syrian too, or that of the RuAF)

Crow Bat--the 20K is coming straight from the Iranians---right now I would not challenge their own figures as the same figure is showing up in Israeli media--there seems to be a general consensus the figures are correct..

Reported RU aircraft have in fact doubled in the last week---

Again I point to the major sealift that the Russians have been conducting since 2013 as the main "masking operation" and the West literally did not see the Russian equipment/troops arriving--MUCH as the West missed 1000s of Russian troops invading eastern Ukraine along with 400 tanks in August 2014--there if we are to believe the media--they absolutely did not see them coming???

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 05:28 PM

http://20committee.com/2014/03/29/understanding-provocation/

March 29, 2014

Understanding Provocation

One of the most powerful tools the Kremlin has in its secret arsenal of Special War is provocation, what they call provokatsiya. While Moscow cannot claim to have invented this technique, which has existed as long as there have been secret services, there’s no doubt that Russians have perfected the art and taken it to a whole new level of sophistication and deviousness. At times, it can become a strategy all on its own (not always, mind you, with edifying results).

Provokatsiya simply means taking control of your enemies in secret and encouraging them to do things that discredit them and help you. You plant your own agents provocateurs and flip legitimate activists, turning them to your side. When you’re dealing with extremists to start with, getting them to do crazy, self-defeating things isn’t often difficult. In some cases, you simply create extremists and terrorists where they don’t exist. This is causing problems in order to solve them, and since the Tsarist period, Russian intelligence has been known to do just that.

While this isn’t a particularly nice technique, it works surprisingly well, particularly if you don’t care about bloody and messy consequences. Credulous Westerners are a big help. Perhaps the most infamous Kremlin case of provokatsiya was the TRUST operation of the 1920s. In the aftermath of the Russian Civil War, Bolshevik control was incomplete and Moscow faced the problem that a large number of Whites, their recent enemies, had gotten sanctuary in Europe, where they plotted the reconquest of Holy Russia.

Soon the White emigration klatched in the cafes of Paris and Berlin was invigorated by tantalizing rumors that there existed a secret anti-Bolshevik movement underground in the USSR, calling itself the Monarchist Union of Central Russia. Before long, prominent Whites gave this shadowy group their political and financial support, as did several Western intelligence services who desired the end – or at least the harassment – of Bolshevism. Intelligence from inside the Soviet Union was a scarce commodity at the time. Some emigres were even prompted to clandestinely return to Russia in the hope of aiding the resistance. Among them was the famous revolutionary Boris Savinkov, who had broken with the Bolsheviks and was one of Moscow’s top public enemies.

But word of Savinkov dried up once he reached Russia, as it did for all the emigres and spies who tried to enter the Soviet Union to establish contact with the underground resistance. They were dead. The TRUST operation was all a mirage; there in fact was no Monarchist Union of Central Russia, it was a front for Soviet intelligence. By 1926, Western intelligence began to suspect the truth, but by that point the Soviet secret police had been running their false-flag operation for five years, during which time it had eliminated or neutralized several of its top enemies while causing them, and several Western spy services, to waste time, money, and energy on a mirage that was actually Soviet-run.

Russians have employed this crafty model countless times since, as have the many intelligence services that have received training in the dark arts from Moscow. Cuban intelligence is notorious for this – it can be reliably assumed that many of the most hard-line anti-Castro exiles are actually on their payroll – while in the 1990s the Algerian military intelligence service, the feared DRS, executed an enormous version of the TRUST operation against its Islamist foes, defeating them in detail, but at the cost of thousands of innocent lives.

This model must be kept in mind during current discussions of Ukraine, where the Kremlin assures us that the government in Kyiv are “fascists” planning a “Nazi” takeover. While there are right-wingers in Ukraine who have troubling views, their numbers are inflated for effect by Moscow, something which too many Westerners accept uncritically. Moreover, some of the most hardline Ukrainian nationalists are secretly under Moscow’s control, and there’s nothing new about this.

The Soviet secret police infiltrated far-right Ukrainian emigre groups in the 1920s and 1930s, provoking them into self-defeating acts and killing off their leaders. Similar provocation was employed after the Second World War by Stalin’s secret police to crush resistance in Western Ukraine, which lasted into the early 1950s, while throughout the Cold War, Ukrainian rightists abroad were targets for surveillance, harassment, and sometimes assassination by the KGB.

Since the Soviet collapse, similar Russian provocations in Ukraine are broadly understood by security circles in Kyiv, which is part of why the SBU, Ukraine’s Security Service, is now attempting to reign in far-right groups like the Right Sector (Pravyy Sektor): not only are they potentially dangerous to democracy, they may be on Moscow’s payroll too. This has come to a head due to the death this week of the notorious far-right activist Oleksandr Muzychko, AKA Sashko Billy, a vocal hater of Russians and Jews, who fell in a murky shootout with police in the Western Ukrainian city of Rivne. Muzychko was so extreme that he actually fought in Chechnya in the 1990s with the local resistance – Moscow accused him of war crimes there – and his funeral turned into a far-right rally against the government in Kyiv. Predictably, all this got huge coverage in Russian media, which is eager to demonstrate the “fascist” nature of all Ukrainians who do not wish to be ruled by the Kremlin.

Continue..........

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 05:33 PM

Mon Sep 21, 2015 10:57am EDT

Netanyahu, Putin aim to prevent accidental Israeli-Russian clashes in Syria

NOVO-OGARYOVO, Russia | By Maria Tsvetkova

Reuters/Ivan Sekretarev/Pool

One of the main Iranian IRC geo political goals in Syria is to maintain the bridgehead to Hezbollah from Iran thus protecting the Khomeini "Green Crescent".

They will never allow that bridge to Hezbollah to be broken--NOT so sure Putin understands the urgency and the not so subtle threat from Israel towards Russia if in fact Russia is supporting Iran in that endeavor.

So is Russia now wiling to have Syria bombed by the Israeli's ----which goes counter to their ally Iran.

Russia to allow Israeli strikes on Syrian arms transfers, PM says http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-to-allow-israeli-strikes-on-syrian-arms-transfers-pm-says/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 05:37 PM

Indeed: that would be equal to about 30% of Assad's active combatants...

... no trace of Su-25s there, and two gangs of Fencers that overflew Iran and Iraq on the way to Syria (where they were captured by videos while refuelling from RuAF Il-78 tankers over Homs), on 18 and 19 September wore Syrian markings...

EDIT, video in question can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JYEmXJ60Yc

(Pause a few times to ID Su-24s; sadly, from this range and aspect, it's impossible to say if their camo is Syrian too, or that of the RuAF)

Crow Bat--numbers are rapidly climbing--at 28 if correct--and you assumed Russia was not "surging"?????

With Russian intentions since eastern Ukraine never for a moment assume anything??? There they "surged" 400 tanks and over 1000 APCs--so 28 aircraft is not a problem.

BREAKING: #Russia has deployed 28 combat aircraft in Syria according to #US officials - AFP

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 05:43 PM

Syria battlefield map 02SEP. You don't need to be Rommel to see who Assad+Russians are gunning for (hint: not Daesh)

pic.twitter.com/OlT1UVbeSO

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 05:51 PM

Russia, Iran seen coordinating on Assad’s defense in Syria http://on.wsj.com/1NP91a0 via @WSJ

WSJ : "Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah are establishing a joint-operational command center in Latakia" http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-iran-seen-coordinating-on-defense-of-assad-regime-in-syria-1442856556 …

Russia state TV reporting from Damascus on shelling of Embassy http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2666718#/video/https%3A%2F%2Fplayer.vgtrk.com%2Fiframe%2Fvideo%2F id%2F1416879%2Fstart_zoom%2Ftrue%2FshowZoomBtn%2Ff alse%2Fsid%2Fvesti%2FisPlay%2Ftrue%2F%3Facc_video_ id%3D657248 …

Did you notice that the "mortar attack" on the RU embassy took place "at 9:00 on Sept 20th". Why was it disclosed only at 18:35 on 21st?

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 05:53 PM

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-convinced-that-whatever-he-does-obama-wont-respond-militarily-borovoy-says/

Putin Convinced That Whatever He Does, Obama Won’t Respond Militarily, Borovoy Says

September 21, 2015

Staunton, September 19 – Vladimir Putin is acting in Syria as he has in Ukraine on the basis of his conviction that no matter what Russia does, Barack Obama will not respond militarily and that as a result, Moscow has every incentive to raise the stakes in order to force negotiations and gain even more concessions from the West, according to Konstantin Borovoy.

Arguing that “a war between the US and Russia has begun” but that Putin believes he can win it without a direct military confrontation with the US, the head of the Western Choice Party says that the Kremlin leader has concluded “there is now no president in the US but instead a Nobel Peace Prize laureate.”

According to Borovoy, Putin has sent troops into Syria just as he has in Ukraine “not for the conduct of war but for its declaration, as a provocation and showing of the flag. Putin needs a casus belli but not a war” as such. And he believes that will work on the basis of his conclusion that the US is weak, something Russian intelligence agencies and lobbyists assure him is true.

The latest indication of what Putin is successfully trying to achieve, the Russian commentator continues, are the talks between the defense ministers of the US and Russia, a “pathetic” effort by the US to avoid having to acknowledge that Russia has entered the Syrian conflict against the US and the West.

“To conclude ‘agreements’ at the level of defense ministers with someone who does not observe internationally signed and ratified agreements shows naivete,” he says, because Putin will violate this “at the first opportunity” and then blame the US for the violations. And he will sacrifice Russian lives to that end as he has in the past.

“Putin’s real goal is not war but the creation of such pre-war tension that he US will be forced to enter into broadscale negotiations. The current [US] president will do everything possible in this situation not to begin military actions” and thus “will agree to talks in any format” and will be ready “in advance” to make concessions to Putin.

Putin’s demands in this situation are obvious, Borovoy says. They are “Crimea is ours, Syria is ours, Iran is ours, end all sanctions, provide financial assistance to Russia and respect the interests of Russia in the world.” And the Kremlin leader wants to be able to make those demands at a meeting with Obama and other world leaders.

In this situation, the West doesn’t have a large number of options, the Russian commentator says. It can face a long period of Russian provocations and apparent pullbacks, but it will not do anything but lose slowly because Putin believes he can act with impunity and so will continue to do so.

That will be a black day for the West, but on the other hand, Borovoy says, it will “justify” Obama’s receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize.

Meanwhile, Putin will force Russians to tighten their belts, but he will succeed in convincing them that their problems have not been caused by him but by “the military provocateur Obama” and thus they will not only accept the situation but support Putin in his further aggression.

In reality, he continues, Obama has only “a single way out – supplying arms to Ukraine, and not just defensive ones but those that will allow Ukraine to attack. Russia’s armed forces in fact are not prepared for a real military conflict.” At present, however, Putin is certain that Obama won’t do that.

There remains “only one question: what in fact ought the American president to do in this situation?” Borovoy suggests two steps: “giving a military response to Putin in Syria and Ukraine, immediately, rapidly and very effectively,” and “taking up the problems of the C special services, having freed them from the influence of the network of Putin’s agents.”

Unfortunately, the Russian commentator implies, there does not seem to be much chance of either.

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 06:29 PM

Syria Sound of heavy clashes at western entrance of #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VKryZdNWsw …
Image: tank shot

Syria Rebels take out regime position on roof in NW city district of #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PguvlWU-Ri8 …

Syria Rebels shelling positions of #Assad forces at western entrance of #Aleppo city https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7X42v7Z7txs …

Syria Rebels shelling position of #Assad forces at western entrance of #Aleppo city https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Po31vlWyr_4 …

Syria Rebels pounding #Assad Military Academy area at western entrance of #Aleppo city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jG2FE1Tpfjo …

Footage
Also the free parts of #Homs were shelled heavily by the #Assad air force today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25cu8f0DXv4 …
in Al-Waer circa 80.000 sunnis and 10.000 christians are under Assad-siege since february 2012

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 06:30 PM

InfoGraphic - Assad Regime Foreign Allies in #Syria | from around 12 countries.
HD:

http://archicivilians.com/2015/09/21/info-graphic-assad-regime-foreign-allies-in-syria/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 06:32 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 06:44 PM

SyriaExpress :

Project 775/24, BDK46, BSF ropucha class landing ship Novocherkassk 142 transits southbound Bosphorus

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 06:57 PM

Should be read…………

http://www.interpretermag.com/btr-in-oryx-blog-likely-matches-btr-in-27th-separate-motorized-rifle-brigade/#10092

Anticipation of a Russian Strike on ISIS in Syria - Novaya Gazeta

18:36 (GMT)

Novaya Gazeta has published an article today, September 21 on how the Russian military is weighing all the possibilities for delivering a strike on ISIS in the coming week. The Interpreter has made a full translation of the article:

Events in and around Syria are rapidly developing. On Friday [September 18], the first direct telephone conversations in seven months between the defense ministers of Russia and the US took place. Sergei Shoigu and Ashton Carter spoke for about 50 minutes. According to White House spokespersons, the conversation was about those areas where the interests of the countries coincide. Evidently, the reference was to combating the terrorist threat.

On the same day, Syria's armed forces made its most powerful bombing in recent times in the area of the city of Palmyra seized by ISIS militants. (ISIS is a terrorist organization whose activity is banned by court order in Russia.) The Islamists, in turn, executed 56 Syrian military POWs.

The world is on the threshold of great changes.

Novaya Gazeta sources in the offices of military planning and troop deployment of the RF Armed Forces report that Russian specialists with experience in planning operations under conditions of modern maneuvered war with a low concentration of forces are studying the possibility of demonstrating the instruments available to the Kremlin for armed combat in Syria. According to one source, "the operational situation in Syria to some extent is similar to the armed conflict in the ATO zone" [a reference to Ukraine's Anti-Terrorist Operation--The Interpreter].
The main idea consists of implementing some action confirming the seriousness of Russia's intentions either on the eve of, or immediately after President Vladimir Putin's speech at the UN General Assembly on September 28. Options are being reviewed for an air missile strike; a local ground operation of Syrian forces with the support of modern war technology serving our military (a raid, the seizure of an important facility, and so on); a series of artillery strikes. The main and indispensable condition is the effectiveness and visibility, and not the scale.

President at the UN

On the eve of the Russian president's speech, in which he is highly likely to call international terrorism in the person of ISIS humanity's main enemy, and propose instead of confrontation the unification of forces, the views of Western military on the Syrian conflict are distinguished by a certain ambivalence. Everyone acknowledges that without a ground operation, the problem of ISIS cannot be resolved even partially, but they dispute the capacities of Russia and do not wish for an increase in its role in this conflict. Air strikes on the terrorists' positions are being conducted constantly by NATO countries, but substantial changes in the operational situation are not recorded.

In answer to Novaya Gazeta's question, can any success be achieved without concentrating an operationally significant group of Russian Armed Forces in Syria, the minimal number of which Western specialists define as several thousands, our sources noted that from the military perspective, this is an extremely non-trivial task. The operation may be conducted in coordination with armed formations of other sides (the armies of Syria and Iran, Kurds, Alawites, Christians and so on) but without experience of cooperation and firm trust between commanders it is difficult to achieve success. Therefore, according to our source, "if there is no firm assurance of success, it is better not to start." And "although the best minds have been brought in to the planning, it is not a fact at all that the strike will be delivered." Such a failure would cause significant damage to the Kremlin's diplomatic offensive in proposing to bring international efforts in Syria to a new level.
77% of Russians oppose military action in #Syria http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/1244325/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 07:13 PM

State Dept's John Kirby on Russian buildup in Syria: The types of capabilities we see flowing in certainly add question as to the intent

RUS FOB LATAKIA buildup continues pic.twitter.com/Avh0auFeNz

OUTLAW 09

09-21-2015, 07:22 PM

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/why-russia-is-expanding-its-syrian-naval-base/531986.html

Why Russia Is Expanding Its Syrian Naval Base

By Matthew Bodner
Sep. 21 2015 20:46

The Russian military is expanding its tiny naval facility at Tartus on the Syrian coast to handle bigger warships and transport vessels amid a general buildup of Russian forces in territory controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad, the Kommersant newspaper reported Monday, citing military sources.

The news broke as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew with his military and intelligence chiefs to Moscow on Monday to meet with President Vladimir Putin and discuss ways to prevent accidental clashes of Russian and Israeli forces operating in Syria.

Russia in recent weeks has wrong-footed Israel, the U.S. and Europe by beefing up its supply of military hardware to the Syrian government. News reports have alleged that Russia has deployed forces such as Su-30 fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles and troops to a government-controlled airfield in Latakia.

To better sustain and supply both its own forces and the Syrian government's, Russia has deployed some 1,700 military specialists to its small naval repair station at Tartus, 90 kilometers to the south of Latakia — a dramatic increase in personnel at a facility that until recently was staffed by a handful of military men and civilian contractors, Kommersant reported.

“They are outfitting and guarding the facility, and are restructuring the dock,” an unidentified soldier stationed at Tartus told Kommersant, adding that the specialists should be rotated out of Syria in three months.

This was confirmed by an unidentified source in Russia's General Staff, the military's highest command authority, Kommersant reported. The General Staff source said that the expansion of Tartus into a full-scale naval base was not connected with any imminent Russian intervention in Syria's civil war.

Instead, after its expansion, “[Tartus] will simply be able to accommodate first- and second-rank ships from the Russian Mediterranean flotilla,” the source said, referring to the Russian designation for ships ranging in size from large cruisers to destroyers and large landing ships and transports.

This points to a two-pronged vision for the future of Russia's Syrian naval outpost — currently Russia's only pit-stop in the Mediterranean, said Dr. Theodore Karasik, a UAE-based military and geopolitical expert.

“The Russian port in Tartus, although small, is a main entry point for Russian equipment to support the Syrian government,” Karasik said. “[However], Russia seeks to expand Tartus not only because of the required throughput necessary to help the Syrian government, but also to increase Moscow's presence in the eastern Mediterranean.”

Historical Foothold

As the destination of the so-called Syrian Express — a Russian naval supply route from the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol — Tartus has long served as a kind of beachhead for Russian arms and equipment deliveries to Syria.

Moscow has since 1956 supplied weapons to the Syrian government, and by 1991, the total value of Soviet arms deliveries to Damascus had reached $26 billion, according to Kommersant. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, arms sales have continued, though their value is unclear.

Heavy equipment such as Bastion coastal defense missiles, T-80 battle tanks, and Su-27 fighters have been delivered to the Syrian government since 2010, Kommersant reported, citing an unidentified source at state arms export agency Rosoboronexport.

Tartus has been an entry point for Russian arms deliveries to Syria since 1971, when it was leased to Moscow, but the base was doubly significant for serving as a home away from home for the Soviet Mediterranean flotilla.

But this ended with the fall of the Soviet Union, when the Russian military was forced to retrench, and the 1990s saw the scale of operations at Tartus drastically diminish.

“It hasn't been used much, nor has it been properly renovated,” said Yury Barmin, a Russian expert in the Middle East arms trade and politics. “Tartus can't accommodate any of the major Russian warships, which is why upgrading it makes sense.”

By the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Tartus was manned by only a handful of Russian military servicemen and civilian contractors, and the single remaining floating dock could only receive the smallest of Russia's ocean-going naval vessels.

Russia has been looking to rebuild its presence at Tartus since at least 2010, when the former head of the navy, Vladimir Vysotsky, announced plans to equip the facility to handle ships as large as Russia's only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.

That work was meant to be completed by 2012, and be carried out in two phases — first, establishing a military base, and then expanding the naval facilities. The breakout of the Syrian civil war stifled these plans, and only now that Russia is stepping up support for Assad's regime have they been dusted off.

“The base would offer Russian military equipment easy access to Syria, because right now Russian landing ships primarily use the port at [nearby] Latakia, a province under constant rebel offensive,” Barmin said.

Mandated Expansion

Russia's decision to overhaul the Tartus facility and expand it into a proper naval base for larger vessels speaks not only to Moscow's intention to provide significant levels of military aid to the Syrian government, but make good on its promise to project power into the Mediterranean.

In July, Russia announced updates to its national naval doctrine — a document that describes how Russia intends to use its navy — that called for a return to more frequent patrols and operations in areas such as the Mediterranean, where the Soviet Union once had a formidable presence.

But in order to support these operations, which will be conducted by the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol, with occasional support from the Northern Fleet, Russia needs ports in the Mediterranean to dock ships for refueling and maintenance.

“Expanding the Tartus facility and turning it into a naval base would provide the Russian fleet with a logistical advantage sparing it constant trips back to the Black Sea through the Bosphorus,” Barmin said.

Although Tartus appears to be the primary focus, it isn't the only place that Russia is looking to base its ships, Karasik said.

“Already, the Russian Defense Ministry is deep into making plans for other ports around the Mediterranean, notably in North Cyprus, but also maritime access in Egypt, in Libya under a new national government, Greece and perhaps Italy,” Karasik said.

“Clearly, the Kremlin seeks a maritime hub system in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Oman,” Karasik added.

CrowBat

09-21-2015, 08:08 PM

Crow Bat--the 20K is coming straight from the Iranians-......acknowledged as 'having the most free and sincere media there is on this planet'...

Anyway, the Su-25s did arrive meanwhile - but (and contrary to Su-30s) - per transport aircraft.

Su-24s that overflew Iran are still nowhere to be seen at Bassel Assad, so guess they were Syrian after all (or Russians decided to base them at T.4/Tiyas AB, where Syrian Su-24s are based too).

--right now I would not challenge their own figures as the same figure is showing up in Israeli media--there seems to be a general consensus the figures are correct..That's no 'consensus' but Israeli military censorship.

In cases of this kind, the author has to cite foreign source, or the censorship would blot out half the article. This means anything else but that some famed 'Israeli intelligence' is 'auto-confirming' figures in question.

...and more often than enough, such sources are used by the Israeli media because they are in Israeli interest: whatever appears 'threatening for existence of Israel' is 'good news' there.

CrowBat

09-21-2015, 08:21 PM

Crow Bat--and the integrated Russian/Syrian AD systems are not a threat????

From Haaretz---
For the first time (since decades) Israel suspended fighter jet patrols along Syria'n coastline bc Russia'n military build up

Must laugh here. How 'bad' the IASF can't fly 24/7 along - and inside - Syrian airspace at will.

YES, baby: that makes Russians a 'deadly threat'. :rolleyes:

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 05:24 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 05:27 AM

Confirmed: SU-25s Join Russia's Flankers in Latakia via @bellingcat by @CSBiggers https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2015/09/21/confirmed-su-25s-join-russias-flankers-in-latakia/ …

How come #Russia & #Iran intervention in #Syria doesn't need #UNSC resolution but others need a mandate to help Syrians?

Propaganda video claims Uzbek jihadist committed a sucide attack vs Syrian army in Fuah, Idlib province on Sep 19 http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=510_1442857617 …

IF and that is a big IF---if the Russian aircraft number stationed in in Syria is 50--have not seen any confirmation though of this number--IF 50 then there are more Russian aircraft in Syria than the entire UK RAF has.

Just as the 400 tanks Russia has moved into eastern Ukraine as well as 1000 IFV/APCs are more than the total number of such armored vehicles of four NOW close to five NATO armies taken together.

Russian heavy artillery is in the hundreds as well--the German Army currently only has two artillery BNs.

The US Army heavy artillery in Europe has maybe when all are counted 20 and that is with the 173rd Airborne sitting in Italy.

Right now the Russians have a deadly mix of weapons/weapons systems in Syria that would in effect allow for an immediate offensive at the point of their choosing that the anti Assad forces have not seen in the past.

There was a comment I posted yesterday that indicates a new Russia offensive within the week which actually is now fully possible.

What is interesting is that if they go over to an offensive in such a short time--this would mean they have been planning this for about one year based on their decision planning cycles.

CrowBat

09-22-2015, 07:11 AM

IF and that is a big IF---if the Russian aircraft number stationed in in Syria is 50--have not seen any confirmation though of this number--IF 50 then there are more Russian aircraft in Syria than the entire UK RAF has.
Wait for a while longer for the situation to fester just a little. There is still no certainity the Su-24s that passed Homs are actually Russian: it's not only that they are the only tactical combat aircraft involved in this affair actually 'flown-in' to Syria (all the others were brought in Antonov transports); but they wore SyAAF markings too.

So, until they appear at Hmeemmem AB (military part of Bassel al-Assad IAP), it's anything but 'certain' that they are actually 'Russian'.

They are also nowhere to be seen on photos like the one bellow, showing four Su-30s and a row of about 12 Su-25s at Hmeemmem.

Means: presently, it's anything but sure that the RuAF has '50 combat aircraft deployed in Syria'. All that can be supported by evidence is '16'.

CrowBat

09-22-2015, 07:24 AM

Ah yes, and, regarding this:

Crow Bat--and the integrated Russian/Syrian AD systems are not a threat????
SA-22 are no IADS.

There is presently no trace of deployment of something like SA-17s and/or SA-20s.

Sure, a deployment of this size would require 'more' - even more so because the insurgents have captured several 'Maysaloon' SSMs, two weeks ago ('Maysaloon' is Syrian designation for Iranian-made Nazeat ballistic missile with a range of about 75km) - but presently that's not the case. With other words, back to old military addagio: 'hurry up - and wait' (to see if...).

***********

Some interesting 'insights' about Russian deployment to Syria were provided in the following article by al-Masdar News (http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-given-full-access-to-the-hmaymat-airbase-in-west-latakia) - a staunchly pro-regime outlet. Al-Masdar is often posting sheer propaganda, but as so often, 'every lie contains at least 50% truth':

...Syrian Arab Army’s Central Command approved the Russian Navy’s recent delivery of Sukhoi fighter jets through the Syrian port-city of Tartous.

Means: at least according to al-Masdar, Sukhois were (literaly) 'shipped' to Syria.

I do not buy this outright, though: firstly, ports of Lattakia and Tartous are in local city centres. One can't unload so many such distinct and obvious 'loads' and then tow them around the city without this being observed by thousands. Secondly, Hmeemmem is much too far away from either, Tartous and Lattakia for Sukhois to be unloaded there and then - for example - towed all the way to Bassel Assad IAP, in disassembled condition (means: 'fuselage only' on landing gear, but without wings etc.) - 'unobserved'. At least a few photos would appear since ways are quite long and easy to see by local population.

Instead, it's de-facto 'certain' they were flown in on board Antonov transports - which stands in opposition to the fashion in which Su-24s with SyAAF markings were flown in (via Casspian Sea, Iran and Iraq).

Another sentence in that report is indicating something that's near-absurd:

Russian military personnel are currently training and advising the civilian-led “National Defense Forces” (NDF) in the provinces of Latakia (Slunfeh), Tartous (Safita), and Homs (Wadi Al-Nasara area); this scheduled training is set to conclude in early November this year.By side the hogwash with 'civilian-controlled NDF': but what is absurd here is that IRGC-QF-established, and IRGC-QF/Hezbollah-trained NDF is now going to be... what...? ...'re-trained' by Russians?

If there is one thing that the IRGC-QF/Hezbollah did really good about its training of the NDF, then it's the fact that they custom-tailored the NDF to COIN warfare. Significant portion of training included 'hearts & minds' aspects.

Sure, and as is well-known, Syrian officers and other ranks of the NDF never followed their advice: there was never interest to do so.

But, Russians - plus Assad, I suppose - are now expecting regime's military to 'work better' after being 're-trained by Russians', whose essence of COIN-tactics is 'flatten them'...? :roll:

...sigh...

Whatever: if Russians are indeed 're-training' the NDF, then there will be no 'offensive' for at least 6-8 weeks. No point in rushing regime's thugs to the frontline if they can't function the way Russian generals intend them to function.

davidbfpo

09-22-2015, 08:21 AM

A timely article, using in country and external quotes:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/21/irans-shadowy-influence-in-syrias-maelstrom-fuels-paranoia-and-wariness

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 12:11 PM

Crow Bat--well the Russian surge towards five brigades is underway---

BreakingReport
#Russia to deploy 2000 fresh soldiers at #Latakia air base.
"Only the first stage".
Plus 1700 in #Tartus.

We are now at 3700 --well on the way to five full scale Russian brigades--betting most of airborne are from Pskov their only fully combat alert airborne division and two Spetsnaz brigades.

Remember Russia has stationed approximately 9K troops in eastern Ukraine and that build up took over eight months--in last than two weeks they are at 3700 almost 50% of the eastern Ukraine numbers.

Russia is deadly serious about this move and the West has completely again underestimated Putin.

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 12:23 PM

Wait for a while longer for the situation to fester just a little. There is still no certainity the Su-24s that passed Homs are actually Russian: it's not only that they are the only tactical combat aircraft involved in this affair actually 'flown-in' to Syria (all the others were brought in Antonov transports); but they wore SyAAF markings too.

So, until they appear at Hmeemmem AB (military part of Bassel al-Assad IAP), it's anything but 'certain' that they are actually 'Russian'.

They are also nowhere to be seen on photos like the one bellow, showing four Su-30s and a row of about 12 Su-25s at Hmeemmem.

Means: presently, it's anything but sure that the RuAF has '50 combat aircraft deployed in Syria'. All that can be supported by evidence is '16'.

US intel imagery is calling it 28 total and some European sources are calling it 50 --say split the middle at 33---still the Russians a shy 17 from being stronger in Syria than the entire UK RAF. the interesting thing is the Russian masking operations--first you do not see the aircraft then they are suddenly on the ground---they got a lot of practice flying with their transponders off over the Baltic this summer.

Pentagon releases satellite images of Russian aircraft in Syria
http://www.unian.info/world/1130803-pentagon-releases-satellite-images-of-russian-aircraft-in-syria.html … pic.twitter.com/LXoXZBIZ2o

Youn will notice on the commen posted yesterday from a Russian military type--they are anticipating a major offensive led by the Russians in about one week.

IF the figures of now 3700 in country is accurate and since it is the Russians who are confirming and the tactical aircraft are in country--the idea of a Russian general offensive against selected targets is not so far fetched anymore.

The armor count is also increasing 12 T90s and 35 BTRs/IFV--and the Syrian Express is still sending in freighter after freighter.

What is missing from view are the BM30s that were used recently with cluster munitions.

If the Russians throw a tactical brigade supported by armor, excellent intel/EW abilities with drone support and SU25s with the SU30s flying high cover at a specific front line--anti Assad forces will not hold long.

IS is not the target for the first round--check which opposition group is closer--that is the first target---the Russians have defined all anti Assad forces as terrorists bottom line and right now IS is now where close territory wise to threatening the Russians nor Assad.

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 12:25 PM

IMAGES of #Syria torture on display at UN: 'Imperative we do not look away' http://tinyurl.com/pkwxrsa
pic.twitter.com/GZIbpVl21y

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 12:35 PM

Russia to deploy 2,000 military personnel to Syria

13:23, 22 September 2015 The Financial Times

According to sources speaking to the Financial Times, Russia will deploy 2,000 military personnel to its new air base in Latakia. A Syria advisor to Moscow, who wished to remain anonymous, told the paper that the 2,000 military personnel will make up only the first stage of Russia's Syria mission.

Engineers, fighter plane crews, and soldiers will be deployed to secure the air base. Sources could not confirm earlier reports about the delivery of surface-to-air missiles and fighter planes to Latakia.

Due to fears that the increasing Russian military presence in Syria may upset the balance of power in the country, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin on Monday. At the meeting, Putin said Russia's actions in the Middle East "always were and will be very responsible" and reassured the Israeli Prime Minister that Syrian forces do not pose a threat to Israel.

Russia is to deploy 2,000 military personnel to its new air base near the Syrian port city of Latakia, signaling the scale of Moscow’s involvement in the war-torn country. The deployment “forms the first phase of the mission there,” according to an adviser on Syria policy in Moscow.

Earlier this week, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that more than 1,700 Russian military personnel are currently stationed at the Syrian port of Tartus. They have reportedly been deployed to the Russian Navy's logistics and maintenance support center.

Various media sources have been reporting on Russia’s growing military presence in Syria since early September. Russia has claimed that its military cooperation with Syria is legal and in line with contracts for weapons supplies. Russian authorities say there are no Russian soldiers participating in the fighting in Syria.

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 01:55 PM

CrowBat

09-22-2015, 02:03 PM

Crow Bat--well the Russian surge towards five brigades is underway---Link?

And otherwise, I see that relaxed. This situation is so screwed up that there is absolutely nothing I can do - except speak as openly as possible about all the nonsense going on there.

So, from my POV, they are all welcome in Alawistan: Russian troops, Don Cossacks, Slavic Legion, and Russian Jihadists sent there by the GRU - and whoever else. May Syrian soil be soft to them: JAN, Ahrar and others will certainly not be.

US intel imagery is calling it 28 total...No clue if it's calling it 28 total, but it's showing 16 only.

...and some European sources are calling it 50...because they are bunching everything together and have no clue that IRIAF F-4 pilots that escorted those Il-78s and Su-24s through Iranian airspace, saw SyAAF markings on Fencers.

Unless these Su-24s appear on some sat-image of Hmeemmem AB, and in the light of 'mysterious appearance' of a camouflaged Su-24MK (or M2) at some airshow outside Sukhoi Aircraft Factory in Novosibirsk, last month (see attachment; supposedly, the aircraft in question belonged to a batch ordered by Tripoli back in 1988, but never delivered to Libya), I count them as 'Syrian Arab Air Force', not Russian.

--still the Russians a shy 17 from being stronger in Syria than the entire UK RAF....which is quite an exaggeration even for a hyperbole. Re-check your figures, please.

...the interesting thing is the Russian masking operations--first you do not see the aircraft then they are suddenly on the ground---they got a lot of practice flying with their transponders off over the Baltic this summer.There was a purpose of my post containing that report by al-Masdar News. This was to show that the Russians have 'shipped' all of their aircraft (at least those definitely confirmed as already in Syria) per transport aircraft.

Word is that nobody sane would load an 'active' combat aircraft into a transport; i.e. all the sources of power are turned off - and thus there are no active IFF-transponders either.

Otherwise, stories about Russians some sort of 'smuggling' a gang of their Su-30s for hundreds of kilometres through Romanian or Bulgarian, and then Serbian, Macedonian, and Greek (or even Turkish) airspace - supposedly in radar shadows of their An-125 and Il-78 transports - are good for small kids.

I accept that European borders and NATO-memberships are not easy to understand for most of Americans (including certain gentlemen in State Department that have launched this hoax), but this doesn't mean that local air forces are not doing their duties.

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 02:08 PM

Total Russian aircraft now in Syria;
12 SU-24s
12 SU-25s
4 SU-30Ms

now that on the ground pic appears, RU media reacts, saying "supposedly Russian warplane sat pix" @finriswolf

Hezbollah-press "Al-Akhbar" says #Russia'n military delegation visited #YPG military commanders & frontlines in #Hasaka #Syria

Syria Rebels shelling small industrial area at western entrance of #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWp35UXFv_Y …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.182675&lon=37.069695&z=16 …

Syria #Damascus Heavy clashes in mountains west of #Douma suburb continues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDWp6xlh-uM …

Syria #Assad-forces handed over World Heritage #Palmyra 2 #IslamicState 4 int. headlines & to defend Jazal oil wells

Syria Clashes btw Jaish al Islam & #Assad-forces at mountain ridge overlooking highway #Damascus #Homs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBooooxA-Eo …

Although less capable than the Su-30SM, the stationing of Su-24M2s is little surprising given the SyAAF is also operating this variant, which were all recently upgraded from MK standard to M2 standard in Rzhev, Russia. 819 Squadron, responsible for operating the Su-24M2 in Syrian service, continues to fly with eleven operational airframes based at T4, Central Syria. The possible housing of RuAF Su-24M2s at this airbase would help ease logistics, and making use of the extensive infrastructure already available there would be a sensible choice.

Russian Airforce Tu-154 RA-85041 from Tehran landing in Latakia now, was in Baghdad yesterday from Orenburg

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 02:13 PM

Many credible reports Twitter took down accounts and tweets about the latest Train+Equip crew handing over weapons to Islamists.

This is about the 75 latest US train and equip troops that arrived in Syria along with 12 technical.

All accounts that wrote about Atareb Rebels and Nusra story have been suspended. I was obliged to delete my previous tweets.

Twitter was forcing many to remove their comments if it pertained to the hand over.

CrowBat

09-22-2015, 02:20 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 02:32 PM

No explanation needed... "Sparta" unit. #RussianAggression from #Ukraine to #Syria https://vk.com/sparta_orb?w=wall-88853749_7312 … pic.twitter.com/3k5YG4yxU5

There is rumors about Russia is fixing and expanding hmemim airport to house mi-28
Days ago there was a new report on Syrian news about high Syrian military personnel asked to buy mi-28 and Russia responded with we will see if your airports are ready to house them first.

Syrian state TV : kommersant : 12 mig29m2 and 12 yak 130 to be delivered in 2016-2017

The Russians will want to build up their forces, supplies, intelligence and command and control before attacking. A ground offensive is probably being planned for Latakia, with Russian air power as a new factor. The Russians will want one of their first uses of air power in Syria to be an impressive demonstration of their power. This might have a strong psychological effect on IS, FSA, etc.

So Russia sends Abkhazians to Syria https://twitter.com/inforesist/status/646328203196428288 …

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 02:41 PM

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-is-turning-up-the-heat-in-syria-to-cover-turning-it-down-in-ukraine/

Paul Goble

Putin Is Turning Up The Heat In Syria To Cover Turning It Down In Ukraine

September 22, 2015
.

Staunton, September 20 – Faced with ever greater economic problems at home and isolation abroad, Vladimir Putin needs to freeze the conflict in the Donbass in such a way that Russians won’t begin asking questions about why he went there in the first place, Aleksandr Rabinovich says. And consequently, he is turning up the heat in Syria.

Many commentators have speculated about the links between Ukraine and Syria with most suggesting that the Kremlin leader, convinced he can act with impunity, is simply exploiting another possibility to project Russian power and further divide the West in the process.

But Rabinovich suggests that the relationship between Syria and Ukraine may be closer and more complicated and that Putin has an obvious incentive to intensify the Syrian crisis further in order to keep his declared support among Russians at its current stratospheric levels.

According to the financial analyst, “the Russian economy cannot withstand Crimea, the Donbass or Syria, but that is a matter of indifference to Putin. He is not engaged with the economy. He is occupied with the intoxication of the [Russian] population in order to preserve his power.”

And because he has to “freeze the conflict in the Donbass” in order to end or at least reduce sanctions, the Kremlin leader had to come up with a way that would “not reduce the level of intoxication of the population.” The answer was his decision to expand Russian support for Syria’s Assad and set Russia on a new collision course with the West.

In the short term, Putin’s strategy will work: “the people will sober up” only in 12 to 18 months, Rabinovich suggests. But he has this working for him. “The Russian economy is very primitive and therefore it can hold out somewhat longer than those that are not so primitive.”

Obviously, Putin is acting in Syria for other reasons as well, including backing a fellow dictator, sparking the flood of refugees into Europe, potentially disrupting oil supplies and driving the price back up, and setting the stage for a “grand bargain” in which the West might accept Putin’s claims on Ukraine in return for Putin’s “assistance” in the Middle East.

But to the extent that the factor Rabinovich points to plays a role, that suggests Putin may engage in ever more threatening behavior precisely because he has an eye on his domestic situation – something that will likely make him even more dangerous in the coming days — is precisely because such considerations highlight his vulnerability

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 02:47 PM

...well, nice to see at least somebody is reacting to that sea of lies about 'handover': some say there should be difference between 'arrest/capture' (which is what happened to 75 insurgents trained by the USA) and 'handover' (which is what didn't happen).

People purposely spreading such lies because they are too dumb and so full of prejudice that they consider US training of Syrian insurgents for 'support of al-Qaida/Daesh' should be happy they've had only to remove relevant posts or to shut down their Twitter accounts. I would sentence them to few years of jail - combined with some hard work. Enough is enough.

The interesting point is that the initial reporting was that they had been basically arrested--now explain just how is it possible that 75 armed individuals with 12 technicals with an USAF escort "got arrested"???? Someone had to have warned them of the possibility??

So if in fact "arrested" with US air cover evidently not worth the cost and effort--what happen to their weapons and technicals??

"Turned over" might just be a rather "nice way of saying"--they were taken since the owners were in jail "if arrested".

One has to watch the use of the words and double meanings----

"Taken or handed over"---means in the end someone else had the weapons and technicals NOT the original owners right???

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 03:14 PM

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/21/russia-to-start-bombing-in-syria-asap.html

Nancy A. Youssef
Shane Harris

09.21.155:02 PM ET

Russia to Start Bombing in Syria ASAP

The Kremlin’s jets have landed in Syria. The drones are flying. And now, Russian combat forces are on the cusp of fighting to save what’s left of the Damascus regime from ISIS.

Russian combat operations on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are likely to begin “soon,” three U.S. officials told The Daily Beast. And Russian drone flights to spot targets for potential airstrikes are already underway.

That concession by U.S. officials of growing Russian influence marks a shift from previous statements by officials who said they weren’t sure whether Russia intended to use force in Syria and enter into the country’s long and brutal civil war. There already are early signs that Russia plans to target moderate forces that threaten the Assad regime, not the self-proclaimed Islamic State, which has been the focus of a year-long U.S.-led air campaign.

And yet, the recent Russian moves, which threaten to undermine U.S.-led efforts over the last year, were met with hardly a shrug in some circles in Washington.

“There are not discussions happening here about what this means for U.S. influence on the war against ISIS,” one defense official told The Daily Beast.

That’s despite the fact that some unverified online videos indicate that the opening phases of such operations may have already begun.

A video posted September 15 to YouTube appears to show Russian military forces in tanks alongside Syrian forces in the Lattakia region, a traditional Assad stronghold that has come under threat from anti-regime forces.

The Kremlin’s jets have landed in Syria. The drones are flying. And Russian forces are poised to fight to save what’s left of the Damascus regime from ISIS.

Since last Friday, Moscow has sent two dozen additional fighter jets to Syria, bringing the total number in the country to 28. The same day, Defense Secretary Ash Carter spoke by phone to his Russian counterpart about what the Pentagon called “mechanisms for deconfliction,” a strong indication that Russia intended to conduct airstrikes in the same areas that U.S. forces and their coalition partners are now operating against ISIS.

After more than a year of U.S.-led airstrikes, the political and military situation in Syria appears to have reached a critical turning point, American officials and experts said. The U.S. campaign is effectively at a stalemate, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said. In recent weeks, as Assad lost ground and the Obama administration’s Syria policy came under withering criticism for failing to train and equip any significant rebel force, the Russians began moving military equipment, supplies, and troops into Syria.

The massing of Russian force would seem to add a new and potentially volatile element to the chaotic war, with the U.S. struggling to find allies on the ground or blunt the spread of ISIS, and U.S. military analysts accusing their senior officers of distorting intelligence to paint a rosier picture of the military situation.

U.S. officials said publicly they were concerned and keeping a channel of communication open to Moscow.

But privately, many seemed to welcome a Russian intervention if it alleviated the burden on the U.S. for fighting ISIS, even if that meant diminished American influence over how the war ends. Intervening on behalf of an ally bring its own challenges, they note.

The Russians “are going to inherit Assad’s mess,” a second defense official said. “I don’t know if they have looked at it from all possible angles.”

"Watching the Russians take the initiative is the most clear example yet of the complete abdication of U.S. leadership and responsibility in the region,” Christopher Harmer, a naval analyst at the Washington D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War, told The Daily Beast.

Privately, many seemed to welcome a Russian intervention in Syria. “There are some here who think the Russians could find themselves in another Afghanistan,” one U.S. official said.

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest, asked by reporters if the U.S. had any insights into Moscow’s endgame, replied, “To be blunt about it, no.”

State Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday that the U.S. “concerns remain in place” about growing Russian moves in Syria.

Carter has not said a word about what many are calling an “inflection point” in Syria. On Monday afternoon, he held a Lean In event at the Pentagon with Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg, encouraging women in the military to support each other through small groups. Over the weekend, Secretary of State John Kerry repeated the Obama administration’s position that Assad must step down in order to forge a political settlement, but he remained open to postponing that departure to some unspecified date. Kerry has spoken with his Russian counterpart three times in the past week.

“We need to get to the negotiation,” Kerry over the weekend. “That is what we’re looking for and we hope Russia and Iran, and any other countries with influence, will help to bring about that. … Is Russia prepared to bring [Assad] to the table?”

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, while appearing with Kerry over the weekend in Berlin, said, “I strongly welcome the fact—and we’ve had reports here in Germany—about the growing military engagement of Russia in the region.”

The swiftness of Russian military escalation over the weekend was striking. In addition to the surveillance drones, Russia now has “Fencer” advanced-attack aircraft jets and “Frogfoot” jets for close air support among its arsenal, according to U.S. estimates.

Russia has also sent 16 helicopters, two surface-to-air missile batteries, nine T-90 tanks, and enough modular housing to hold 2,000 Russian troops, up by 500 in just a matter of hours. U.S. officials believe there are at least 500 Russian troops on the ground now, presumably to serve as advisers to Syrian forces on the front lines and help them launch more precise artillery strikes and support their ground forces from the air.

Precisely whom the Russians will be hitting with all that firepower—ISIS forces or other militants fighting to overthrow Assad, including those with whom the U.S. might try to align—remains unclear, U.S. officials told The Daily Beast, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence and developing operations.

Some analysts said they anticipate Russia will seek to shore up the Syrian regime in the cities of Idlib and Aleppo, where Assad’s forces have lost territory in recent weeks. That suggests Russian forces would attack Syrian rebels as well as the terrorist organization al Nusra, both of which hold positions in those cities.

The Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta cited one official who said military operations in Syria would be modeled after Moscow’s military occupation of eastern Ukraine and Crimea. The publication, which is generally critical of the Russian government, said missile strikes of grounds operations in concert with Syrian forces could begin prior to President Vladimir Putin’s address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week.

Meanwhile, Russia has been building an international alliance of its own. The Wall Street Journal reported that Russian and Iranian forces, as well as Hezbollah militants, have been coordinating their air operations and finding ways to defend Assad.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow on Monday, along with two members of his general staff, to ensure his own military strategy in Syria will not be hindered by Putin’s. In the past few years, Israel has bombed numerous convoys of advanced weapons systems sent by Iran to Syria and destined for Hezbollah—now Russia’s active operational partner in Latakia. “My goal was to prevent misunderstandings between forces and Russian forces,” Netanyahu told journalists via telephone from Moscow. “We have established a mechanism to prevent such misunderstandings. This is very important for Israel’s security.” Netanyahu insisted that Israeli strikes on weapons systems must be allowed to proceed without Russian interdiction, and suggested that Putin had acceded to this condition.

Over the past year, the U.S. has conducted 5,358 strikes inside Iraq and Syria, targeting ISIS and in support of fighters like the Kurdish YPG, who have also fought the militant group that seeks to establish an Islamic regime in Syria and Iraq.

[I]But for Assad, ISIS is not the only threat. Any so-called “moderate” foe that is seen as an alternative to his regime could be targeted by Russian forces, said Harmer, the military analyst. For that reason, he said, Russian forces would likely strike in Idlib and Aleppo first.

Russia needs “a pliant leader in Syria to maintain some semblance of control, who will still be dependent on Russia,” Harmer said. “Assad is the one puppet that fits all of that. The Syrian regime needs to kill the moderates so there is no alternative to them.”

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 05:31 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 05:35 PM

CB--here come more bases----

Meanwhile... Russia appears to be building two more military bases in Syria http://reut.rs/1L3uxaq

Satellite photos show #Russia building 2 new bases in #Syria http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-expands-military-its-presence-in-syria-satellite-photos-show-1442937150 … pic.twitter.com/Ar9GkG1YME

Russians unhappy about shelling of their Damascus embassy, announce that 'concrete measures' are needed in response http://tass.ru/politika/2278940 …

It's pretty interesting, thou not shocking, how much play Putin is getting on pro-Assad (not including foreign Shia fighters) social media.

Caveat: The 160,000 Russian troops are at different levels of capability (combat readiness), but in principle they're ready.
.
Syrian Express is now headed back north to reload and return----
Russian Navy Ropucha Cls. Landing ships 158 O.Kunikov & 151 Azov are crossing #Bosphorus northbound. pic.twitter.com/dv2e4GU9lE

Well another 1000 tons of supplies were delivered-----not counting potnetial troops---

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 05:43 PM

CrowBat

09-22-2015, 06:01 PM

The interesting point is that the initial reporting was that they had been basically arrested--now explain just how is it possible that 75 armed individuals with 12 technicals with an USAF escort "got arrested"???? Someone had to have warned them of the possibility??Groups like JAN are making head-hunt for any of moderate groups already since more than a year, but some here are still surprised when something of this kind happens...?

US cover can't do anything when the column is stopped and quickly overpowered.

Look: I've got no problems to call a spade a spade. When Saudi-led coalition is providing CAS for AQAP thugs in Yemen, and USAF is providing tanker aircraft for coalition aircraft flying those CAS sorties... then yes, USA are de-facto supporting the AQAP.

But here in Syria, this was not the case.

CB--evidence is in fact 28 --that has been verified by US, European and sat imagery.Had no such info at the time of my post above. Meanwhile it's available (for example here (http://www.janes.com/article/54709/russia-deploys-powerful-strike-group-to-syria)).

EU sources are sayin that the remaining aircraft are parked in Iran awaiting forward movements---there have been a number of large formations with no transponder's seen going into Iran.Iranians do not trust Russians enough for this (and there are literal 'millions of reasons' for this): they have never left them land at their bases, and it would be a huge surprise if they would do so now.

One thing is to let three groups each including Il-78 (with transponders on) followed by four Su-24s (with transponders off) use Iranian airspace (escorted by F-4Es, possibly by F-5Es or MiG-29s from TFB.2 too), and another to let them use Iranian air bases ('too').

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 06:19 PM

CB--evidence is in fact 28 --that has been verified by US, European and sat imagery.

EU sources are sayin that the remaining aircraft are parked in Iran awaiting forward movements---there have been a number of large formations with no transponder's seen going into Iran.

Новое фото аэродрома Латакия 4 х Су-30,12 х Су-25,12 х Су-24 #Syria #Russia pic.twitter.com/s7Fh12GA91

All on the same field--higher sat angle image

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 06:23 PM

Groups like JAN are making head-hunt for any of moderate groups already since more than a year, but some here are still surprised when something of this kind happens...?

US cover can't do anything when the column is stopped and quickly overpowered.

Look: I've got no problems to call a spade a spade. When Saudi-led coalition is providing CAS for AQAP thugs in Yemen, and USAF is providing tanker aircraft for coalition aircraft flying those CAS sorties... then yes, USA are de-facto supporting the AQAP.

But here in Syria, this was not the case.

Had no such info at the time of my post above. Meanwhile it's available (for example here (http://www.janes.com/article/54709/russia-deploys-powerful-strike-group-to-syria)).

Iranians do not trust Russians enough for this (and there are literal 'millions of reasons' for this): they have never left them land at their bases, and it would be a huge surprise if they would do so now.

One thing is to let three groups each including Il-78 (with transponders on) followed by four Su-24s (with transponders off) use Iranian airspace (escorted by F-4Es, possibly by F-5Es or MiG-29s from TFB.2 too), and another to let them use Iranian air bases ('too').

CB--then explain to me why there is a massive airlift going into Iran from Russia and then repacked onto Iranian aircraft for further shipments--the Iranians are in this case definitely working hand in hand and to think any different is wrong.

Remember it was the recent visit of the IRGC commander to Moscow that triggered this whole mess.

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 06:25 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-22-2015, 06:31 PM

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565949-pro-hezbollah-daily-says-party-in-syria-pact-with-russia

Published: 22/09/2015 12:22 PM

Pro-Hezbollah daily says party
in Syria pact with Russia

Al-Akhbar claimed that Russian troops will fight alongside Hezbollah in Syria

BEIRUT – A leading pro-Hezbollah daily claimed on Tuesday that the party has joined a new counter-terror alliance with Moscow and that Russia will take part in military operations alongside the Syrian army and Hezbollah.

Al-Akhbar’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin wrote that secret talks between Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq had resulted in the birth of the new alliance, which he described as “the most important in the region and the world for many years.”

“The agreement to form the alliance includes administrative mechanisms for cooperation on [the issues of] politics and intelligence and [for] military [cooperation] on the battlefield in several parts of the Middle East, primarily in Syria and Iraq,” the commentator said, citing well-informed sources.

“The parties to the alliance are the states of Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah as the fifth party,” he also said, adding that the joint-force would be called the “4+1 alliance” – a play on words referring to the P5+1 world powers that negotiated a nuclear deal with Iran.

The Al-Akhbar article came hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow over the latter country’s major military build-up in Syria.

Following their meeting, Netanyahu announced that Russia and Israel had agreed to “a joint mechanism for preventing misunderstandings between our forces,” and reiterated that Tel Aviv’s commitment to preventing weapon transfers from Syria to Hezbollah.

Putin, in turn, told Netanyahu that the Syrian regime was in “no position” to open a new front against Israel, which has conducted regular airstrikes in Syria targeting weapon transfers as well as in retaliation to cross-border rocket fire.

Al-Akhbar says Russia coordinating with Hezbollah, Kurdish forces

Despite the reported agreement between Tel Aviv and Moscow, Al-Akhbar’s editor-in-chief said that Russian forces were coordinating with Hezbollah in Syria.

“[Several] days ago, Russian officers accompanied by specialists… from the Russian forces arriving in Syria toured a number of positions in Hama’s Al-Ghab Plain area and carried out a field survey accompanied by Syrian Army and Hezbollah officers,” Amin claimed.

“Similar tours took place in the [areas] around Idlib and in the mountain range overlooking Latakia.”

“It has become clear that the Russian force is made up of various specializations, from air force [units] to units specialized in sniper operations and artillery officers, as well as survey and observation teams.”

He also made the startling claim that Russia will “play a prominent role on the ground and will participate in combat on the battlefield with their advanced weaponry by leading operations and taking part in artillery shelling, air [raids] and otherwise, alongside the Syrian army and Hezbollah.”

“The Russians have also set up a coordination process with Kurdish forces and parties,” the article said.

“A Russian military delegate paid a secret visit to a number of Kurdish military commanders in Hasakeh and inspected areas of confrontation between the YPG and the armed groups.”