Syria in 2015 [Archive] - Page 3

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 03:28 PM

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/putin-syria-ukraine-213173#ixzz3mZlNvOSp

The Dangerous Link Between Syria and Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has used the fighting in both countries to trap the U.S.

By Eerik-Niiles Kross and Molly K. McKew
September 22, 2015

Despite what Vladimir Putin is saying, the United States still staunchly refuses to believe Russia is engaged in a new Cold War—and that the U.S. is losing. But Russia aggressively pushes its own narrative where U.S. leadership is absent. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov seems to be everywhere in recent weeks, speaking several times with his US counterpart and others in the region, selling Russia as a partner for peace and stability when the West is faced with crisis.

Experts from the left and right alike warn that cooperation with Russia on Syria can have potentially disastrous consequences for the U.S., but too many Americans still don’t understand how closely linked these two headline conflicts are, and American policy has yet to confront the reality that Syria and Ukraine are part of the same mission for Russia—the destruction of the post-WWII architecture of the West. To achieve this goal, Russia has pursued a clear policy of disruption, chaos and destabilization—in Ukraine and in the Middle East—in order to force the West to have to partner with Russia to “resolve” the crises it has created.

Now, poised to launch a direct military campaign in Syria, Russia wants the U.S. to join a Russian-led coalition against the Islamic State and complete the rehabilitation of Bashar al Assad, or else end up in direct conflict with Russia in the Middle East. Indeed, many of the anti-aircraft and other Russian weapons systems being moved to Syria are more suited to shooting at American drones and assets than anything the Islamic State has access to.

This suggested coalition is little more than a well-constructed trap for the White House and for Europe. Russia created the conflict in Ukraine. Their military support for Assad fuels a bloody civil war and a refugee crisis from Syria. Russian efforts have also materially aided in the creation of the Islamic State—the wealthiest, best-armed terrorist network in history.

Understanding how Russia has engineered the false choice between accepting Russia as a dominant force in its “sphere of influence” or the proliferation of conflict is essential to accepting that neither choice is the answer.

Too often policy analysts debate whether the Kremlin is strategic or merely tactical in its approach to foreign policy. But the answer doesn’t matter. They don’t need a master plan when one clear strategic objective drives decision-making: make the U.S. the enemy—and make them look weak. The Kremlin has been opportunistic and decisive in grabbing a position of strength—in the Middle East and in Europe—while U.S. attention has waned and retracted.

When the civil uprising against Assad first began in Syria, the rebellion’s leaders hoped for western support. Support for the rebels was slow to materialize, despite early calls for Assad to leave power, but Russia—eager to protect its military foothold on the Mediterranean and on the southern flank of NATO—was quick to line up against U.S. policy and supply Assad with arms, military advisers, intelligence and political support. After Syria deployed chemical weapons against rebels and civilians in August 2013, Russia brokered a deal with the U.S. to save Assad from outside military intervention.

Russian support for Assad has allowed the civil war to continue for years at such an intense level of bloodshed and destruction. But shipments of armaments were not their only tool for saving their primary regional ally. They are also involved in building an engine of terrorism to open a second front in the Syrian war.

By the time the chemical weapons deal was signed, the nature of the war in Syria had changed. Before the 2014 Sochi Olympics—as Russia issued warnings about potential attacks by North Caucasus extremists and moved military assets into the region for the seizure of Crimea—there were rumors, now confirmed by Russian investigative journalists, that Russia was actively exporting fighters from the North Caucasus to Syria. Elena Milashina, writing in Novaya Gazeta, documented how, beginning in 2011, the FSB established safe routes for militants in the North Caucasus to reach Syria via Turkey. Local FSB officers, sometimes with the help of local intermediaries and community leaders, encouraged and aided jihadis to leave Russia for the fighting in the Middle East, in many cases providing documents that allowed them to travel.

It probably wasn’t a hard sell for the FSB to make to nascent jihadis: Go fight in the desert, for infinite riches and glory, or stay in Russia, where the security services had pretty good cover to kill a lot of them.

A lot of them left. In late 2012, Russian-speaking jihadis began to arrive in Syria. According to regional intelligence sources who have closely tracked their movements and activities, the Russian-speakers negotiated the unification of the Islamic States in Syria and in Iraq, creating the current Islamic State formation.

Suddenly, the war in Syria was “confusing” to American policymakers seeking a way out of the war and an end to Assad’s regime. There were “good rebels” and “bad rebels,” and the U.S. couldn’t decide which side to support. These tactics were similar to the irregular warfare Russia would deploy in Ukraine.

The war at that point also turned away from Assad and Syria, and toward Iraq instead. The western front of ISIL was led by Russian-speakers; the eastern commanders included disenfranchised Soviet/Russian-trained Saddam-era Sunni military officers. From the beginning, their efforts were closely coordinated. There were reports from Kurdish forces of Russian operatives at secret outposts in the desert.

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 03:42 PM

Not even pretending to care about RUAF Syria flights now. Over Greece & Bulgaria

RUAF Tu-154 85041 from Latakia, Syria northbound over Serbia http://www.flightradar24.com/CHB9004/7810c24

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 04:30 PM

...well, nice to see at least somebody is reacting to that sea of lies about 'handover': some say there should be difference between 'arrest/capture' (which is what happened to 75 insurgents trained by the USA) and 'handover' (which is what didn't happen).

People purposely spreading such lies because they are too dumb and so full of prejudice that they consider US training of Syrian insurgents for 'support of al-Qaida/Daesh' should be happy they've had only to remove relevant posts or to shut down their Twitter accounts. I would sentence them to few years of jail - combined with some hard work. Enough is enough.

CB--still stand by the "non hand over"--or do you want to stay by the "captured".

Centcom now denies Abu Zayd defected to AQ, says all weapons accounted for with New Syrian Force: http://www.centcom.mil/en/news/articles/sept.-23-correction-to-the-record-status-of-new-syrian-forces-in-syria …

Note, Centcom insists ALL Centcom-issued weapons in hands of New Syrian Force. Does not say, "except for ones stolen in August".

There you go: Dutch Jabhat al-Nusra (AQ) militant shows off US-made Mk14 EBR rifle likely taken from Div. 30. #Syria pic.twitter.com/eBAzc0SKVL

US-backed Div 30 has definitely been provided with US-made Mk14 EBR rifles already. See this previous pic. #Syria pic.twitter.com/CUpm8S9UeM

Well, this seems to complicate Centcom's denial: https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/646641114955517956 …

So here's what we know now. 1. Div 30 says Abu Zayd was one of theirs but dodgy and they warned USG about him. 2. Abu Zayd says he...

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 04:51 PM

CB--still stand by the "non hand over"--or do you want to stay by the "captured".

Centcom now denies Abu Zayd defected to AQ, says all weapons accounted for with New Syrian Force: http://www.centcom.mil/en/news/articles/sept.-23-correction-to-the-record-status-of-new-syrian-forces-in-syria …

Note, Centcom insists ALL Centcom-issued weapons in hands of New Syrian Force. Does not say, "except for ones stolen in August".

There you go: Dutch Jabhat al-Nusra (AQ) militant shows off US-made Mk14 EBR rifle likely taken from Div. 30. #Syria pic.twitter.com/eBAzc0SKVL

US-backed Div 30 has definitely been provided with US-made Mk14 EBR rifles already. See this previous pic. #Syria pic.twitter.com/CUpm8S9UeM

Well, this seems to complicate Centcom's denial: https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/646641114955517956 …

So here's what we know now. 1. Div 30 says Abu Zayd was one of theirs but dodgy and they warned USG about him. 2. Abu Zayd says he...

and his men have repudiated Div 30 and formed independent brigade. 3. Nusra says they went to Nusra + weapons. 4. Centcom says no one...

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 05:00 PM

This is an extraordinary on camera admission by Iraq's Ahmed Chalabi: Iran commands & controls Iraq's Hashd/militias https://twitter.com/iqsunni/status/646216841673601024 …

Never knew the UK Telegraph was pro Putin—that would explain the utter lack for reporting out of the Ukraine…..

Putin is right, defeating Isil, not Assad, should be our priority http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...feat-Isil.html …

US Joint Chiefs say Russia currently greatest global threat, but @Telegraph's Def Ed @concoughlin says "Thank goodness for Vladimir Putin"

Financial Times article stating Iran was taken by surprise by Putin’s moves—only one Iranian source and the WSJ says directly the opposition—was planned together with Putin and his generals---

Article rests on one Iranian "regime insider" and my guess is it's not someone in the Quds Force: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da2bc...#axzz3mUSLeAjC …

Contrast FT's piece with WSJ sourcing: http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-i...ria-1442856556 … pic.twitter.com/IuiVTnc9J2

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 05:19 PM

Humor------

3 years ago Assad was bombing anyone but ISIS with my weapons. Now I want you to help us both fight ISIS.

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 05:27 PM

Check the date--well worth reading in light of the Russian claim to be wanting to defeat IS.......is a long read.....

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/23/russia-s-playing-a-double-game-with-islamic-terror0.html

Russia’s Double Game With Islamic Terror

08.23.152:00 PM ET

Russia Is Sending Jihadis to Join ISIS

Even as Washington touts its counterterrorism partnerships with Moscow, evidence points to Putin's intelligence service practically helping the Islamic State.

It is an article of faith among the many critics of the current Russian government that, however unpleasant Vladimir Putin may be, he is still a necessary partner in one crucial field of U.S. foreign policy: cooperation in the war on Islamic terrorism.

Proof, if it were needed, for how valued this cooperation is among U.S. policymakers came in the conspicuous absence of Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, from sanctions levied by the Treasury Department against Russian officials. The sanctions targeted bureaucrats involved in both the invasion and occupation of Crimea and the unacknowledged maskirovka war that Moscow is still waging in eastern Ukraine—a war that has drawn amply on the resources of the FSB and has included several “former” FSB officers on the battlefield. Not only was Bortnikov not sanctioned, he was invited by the White House last February as a guest to President Obama’s three-day conference on “countering violent extremism,” whereas the current FBI director, James Comey, was not.

That conference was held principally because of the international threat posed by ISIS and the coalition war against it in Syria and Iraq, not to mention the Chechen identity of the Tsarnaev brothers, perpetrators of the 2013 Boston marathon bombings. Bortnikov’s presence was a mutual recognition by the U.S. and Russia that fighting jihadism is a shared challenge between two countries now embroiled in a pitched standoff over the fate of Europe and much else.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov smiles during a government organised event marking Chechen language day in central Grozny April 25, 2013.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

Yet a recent investigation conducted by Novaya Gazeta, one of the few independent newspapers left in Russia, complicates this cozy tale of counterterrorist cooperation. Based on extensive fieldwork in one village in the North Caucasus, reporter Elena Milashina has concluded that the “Russian special services have controlled” the flow of jihadists into Syria, where they have lately joined up not only with ISIS but other radical Islamist factions. In other words, Russian officials are adding to the ranks of terrorists which the Russian government has deemed a collective threat to the security and longevity of its dictatorial ally on the Mediterranean, Bashar al-Assad.

Continued……………………………………………..

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 05:41 PM

Have seen a number of comments on an increased number of Russian warships on the move--this is the first time I have seen this number--have no other confirmation of it.

22 Russian warships are on their way to Syria
http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/22-de-nave-rusesti-in-drum-spre-siria-galerie-foto-14739976 …

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 05:54 PM

BREAKING-------

German army chief in #Iraq, Stephan Spttel has been found dead in a hotel in Iraq. #Erbil. #Germany @InstantReporter http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/anti-isis-coalition-personnel-dies-iraqs-city-irbil-n432291

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 05:59 PM

Appears that Russia is applying social media pressure to get a PR meeting with Putin at the UNGA.

This is the sixth attempt I have seen today as it appears the US is hesitating..

Russian media report Obama may meet with Putin in NY
http://www.unian.info/world/1132356-russian-media-report-obama-may-meet-with-putin-in-ny.html … pic.twitter.com/VXPR7l76uH

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 06:32 PM

John Schindler @20committee

2 years ago @RadioFreeTom & I explained consequences of Obama outsourcing US #Syria policy to Putin. Here we are.

http://observer.com/2015/09/obamas-collapsing-war-on-the-islamic-state/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 06:51 PM

Interesting article --although nothing is confirmed------

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/world/9691338.asp?scr=1

Russia considers nuclear missiles for Syria, Baltic

Russia is planning to install Iskander surface missiles in Syria and its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, in a response to United States missile interceptors in Poland and U.S.-Israeli military aid to Georgia, an Israeli news agency reported on Monday.

Russia considers nuclear missiles for Syria, Baltic

Moscow seems to be eying Poland, the Middle East, and possibly Ukraine, as the main arenas for its reprisals, as Russia is reported to plan arming warships, submarines and long-range bombers in the Baltic and Middle East with nuclear warheads, DEBKAfile reported.

The plan includes the establishment of big Russian military, naval and air bases in Syria and the release of advanced weapons systems withheld until now to Iran, with the S-300 air-missile defense system, and the nuclear-capable Iskander to Syria.

Shortly before the Georgian conflict flared, Moscow promised Washington not to let Iran and Syria have these sophisticated pieces of hardware.

The Iskander's cruise attributes make its launch and trajectory extremely hard to detect and intercept. If this missile reaches Syria, Israel will have to revamp its anti-missile defense array and Air Force assault plans for the third time in two years, as it constitutes a threat which transcends all its defensive red lines.

Moscow's military planners know this and are therefore considering new sea and air bases in Syria as sites for the Iskander missiles, DEBKAfile reported. Russia would thus keep the missiles under its hand and make sure they were not transferred to Iran, it added.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be invited to Moscow soon to finalize these plans in detail, according to the report.

Military spokesmen in Moscow also said at the weekend that Russian military planners started redesigning the nation’s strategic plans as a fitting response to the U.S. decision to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland and over the recent clashes in Georgia, DEBKAfile reported.

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 07:03 PM

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/09/23/putins-desperate-attempt-to-legalize-krymnash-our-crimea/

Putin’s desperate attempt to legalize “Krymnash” (our Crimea)

Article by: Andriy Zaremba, Crimean political commentator

The war in Syria is the Kremlin’s last hope to achieve recognition, albeit informal, of Russian-occupied Crimea and partial easing of sanctions without withdrawing Russian troops from the Donbas region of Ukraine.

On September 28, Vladimir Putin will mount the rostrum of the UN General Assembly and urge the West to start a joint fight against terrorism in the Middle East. Even if he does not focus on Ukraine, the meaning of his message is clear: “Let’s forget what happened in Crimea and the Donbas and join forces to fight ISIS”.

The Russian tactical plan for Syria is seemingly logical. The Kremlin wants to stop the ongoing disintegration of the Syrian state, remove Bashar al-Assad as president or at least urge him to retire calmly from the political scene, and ensure Russian influence in the region. Russian authorities believe that by providing technology and help from the Russian Special Forces to the Syrian state they will be able to push ISIS into Iraq and let the United States deal with the terrorists on their own. The Kremlin would like to create a certain scenario for that region, namely that Washington “has let the genie out of the bottle” and can no longer cope with the consequences. Vladimir Putin is trying to demonstrate to the “vile” West, which has not welcomed Russia into the bosom of the family, that the United States is not the only country willing to assume the role of global policeman, ready to bring order to the world.

On the quiet, Russia will try to negotiate preferential treatment for Crimea and the occupied regions, without withdrawing its troops. Putin needs to prolong and postpone the implementation of the Minsk Agreements. The “DNR” puppets have already voiced such proposals.

Putin’s “cunning plan” looks good on paper. In reality, it is somewhat flawed. The main argument has to do with the war against ISIS. We know that this group is fighting against the Assad regime and the opposition. If the Kremlin decides to wage a real war against the Islamists in Syria, it may indirectly help other oppositionists. They, in turn, can destroy the government forces without fearing that ISIS will attack them from the rear. If Moscow starts military operations against everyone, it would be a direct military challenge to the United States. After all, back in August, Barack Obama authorized the use of US aircraft to protect the moderate Syrian opposition. Russian military officials do not fully understand against whom and how they will be fighting in Syria. That is why John Kerry, the U.S. Secretary of State, recently stated that he does not see a military solution to the Syrian war.

It is useless to search for a deeper meaning in the Kremlin’s plans. After the Russian authorities officially called Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk a “mujahidin”, even the most naive “vatnik” should understand that basic intelligence is missing somewhere.

The Kremlin is desperately trying to break out of international isolation and shed its international pariah status.

The entire Russian propaganda machine is currently working towards that goal: the lull in the Donbas war, the “fake coup” in the “DNR”, the pathetic and meaningless state visits to Crimea, the attempts of Russian diplomacy to portray Russia as an important player in the war against ISIS, the behind-the-scenes agreements on Bashar al-Assad’s resignation, etc.

We have noted many times that the Kremlin has no coherent foreign policy strategy. Putin and his team operate tactically, according to the situation at hand. The Kremlin basically wants to stop the expansion of sanctions and does not care to look after the losers in the Donbas. The Russian president is guided by “kid logic” – if you don’t make them bend, they will destroy you.

In the medium term, Moscow hopes that oil prices will bounce back, that the “people’s republics” of the Donbas will be co-opted by Ukraine under Kremlin terms, and that “Krymnash” (our Crimea) will be formally recognized by the West. Then, having built up its military forces and gathered more funds, Putin will again start playing dirty in Ukraine. His constant ravings about “one brotherly nation” (Russians and Ukrainians) has to be understand as a complete denial of Ukraine’s right to independence and statehood.

The Ukrainian government and the members of parliament should have no illusions. The Moscow “Frankenstein” will not stop. It does not need a reason to interfere in Ukrainian affairs. Lavrov and Churkin will quickly come up with something or other.

In the meantime, the attention of Europeans is focused on the refugee problem. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that it is impossible to solve the Syrian problem without Moscow’s participation. These “discrepancies” in official statements made by the U.S. and Germany should come as no surprise. The West has chosen to act against Putin’s Russia by installing a strategy of slow economic strangulation. The ultimate goal is to demoralize the Russian kleptocratic elite and persuade it to revise the policies of the regime.

A priori, Europe cannot forgive the Kremlin for militarily redrawing its borders, but it refuses to put too much pressure on Moscow.

Washington and Brussels are seriously worried about a sudden collapse of Putin’s vertical, which might lead to Russia turning into one big “DNR” fully armed with nuclear weapons.

The “Russian bear” has both feet trapped in Crimea and Donetsk, and now he’s sticking his paw into another hive of evil Syrian “bees”. Why should we interfere with his plans? Let him get stuck in another foreign conflict, wasting both resources and lives. In the eyes of the Russian public, “Krymnash” was legitimized by Putin’s third presidential term, but the Syrian gamble will put a damper on everything.

It is one thing to kill Ukrainians, thus protecting the local population from mythical right-wingers and banderites, but another to send Russian soldiers to a foreign country for who knows what reason. “Vatniks” are now puzzled why the “Russians” in the Donbas do not need more protection, but Bashar al-Assad does… Even TV “magicians” like Sergei Kurginian and Vladimir Solovyov cannot explain such a political volte-face.

So the Kremlin is loudly silent about sending troops to Syria, while the Russian Ministry of Defense continues to chant that “we’re only providing military equipment and specialists”.

Moscow is slowly but surely repeating the mistakes of the Soviet Union in the last years of its existence.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was originally meant to protect important installations and the state borders of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. The Soviet authorities “suddenly” discovered that Afghanistan was not a monolithic state, but a country inhabited by warring tribes. The Soviet Union was gradually drawn into a war of attrition with various tribes and clans. It was a war for which the USSR was neither technically or morally prepared. Afghanistan became a shameful defeat for Moscow, foreshadowing the collapse of the Soviet Union.

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 07:14 PM

Unpublished photos of #30thDivision taken during their entrance to #Syria. pic.twitter.com/fSpLWBay5U

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 07:49 PM

Unpublished photos of #30thDivision taken during their entrance to #Syria. pic.twitter.com/fSpLWBay5U

Syria, Division 30 does not know what happened to Major Anas Ibrahim https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/syria

Latest on Div 30 saga. Abu Zayd might have defected but wasn't graduate of the Pentagon program. So sayeth Centcom: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/22/did-a-u-s-trained-syrian-rebel-commander-defect-to-al-qaeda.html …

So if not a graduate then why was he leading the 72??????

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 07:50 PM

FSA Coastal Brigade clashes in Jub al-Ghar in Akrad Mountain rural #Latakia.
http://youtu.be/-oPjWfzAzcY

Russia plans to target "only" the "moderate rebels" , not Isis "yet" due the rebels being a " major threaten " to ASSad regime.

Syria Idlib rif regime aircrafts targeted the villages… https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/syria

Syria, Latakia, regime executed a mother and her 4 children, on charges the father is a rebel https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/syria

Syria, Damascus city, army inside – pictures via syrian reporter https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/syria-damascus-city-army-inside-pictures-via-syrian-reporter …

FSA Grad-ing regime forces in Morek northern #Hama with home made rocket luncher.
http://youtu.be/GaQYfKNTxQw

A story of a #FSA fighter specialist in TOW missiles
https://youtu.be/v048Z94lkHM

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 08:05 PM

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/23/iran-deal-open-for-debate-tehran-presses-new-ayatollah-demand/

Iran deal open for debate? Tehran presses new ayatollah demand

The Iranian government is pressing the U.S. and others to give even more ground to Tehran in the already-sealed nuclear agreement, posing a new headache as the Obama administration and others try to implement the deal.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier this month demanded that sanctions be lifted entirely, not just suspended. A top Khamenei adviser reiterated that demand over the weekend -- ahead of potential informal talks on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

Secretary of State John Kerry plans meet in the coming days in New York with his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. According to Iran's Fars News Agency, Iranian officials also plan to meet with all members of the P5+1 group, which negotiated the deal, in New York on Sept. 28.

These reported plans prompted one group, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), to question whether talks were being "reopened," in order to address Khamenei's concerns.

Asked about the speculation, a State Department official said there is no further negotiation and the U.S. expects the deal to be implemented "in good faith."

"We've long said that we're not going to comment on or react to every statement attributed to the Iranian leadership," the official told FoxNews.com. "Our focus is on implementing the deal, and verifying that Iran completes its key nuclear steps under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. There is no renegotiation, and the nuclear-related sanctions relief that Iran will receive once the IAEA verifies that it has completed its nuclear steps is clearly spelled out in the text of the [agreement]."

But at the least, the ayatollah's demands show the post-deal debate shifting now from Washington back to Tehran, leaving some uncertainty in the air as the U.S. and U.N. prepare to move forward.

In Washington, congressional critics have been unable to muster the votes to even send President Obama a resolution disapproving the deal. But in Tehran, the ayatollah on Sept. 3 renewed concerns about the nature of the deal's sanctions relief.

He said in a statement that sanctions should be lifted entirely, not just suspended -- and said "there will be no deal" unless this is done.

According to MEMRI's translation, he warned that if sanctions are only suspended, Iran, in turn, will only "suspend" nuclear activities cited in the deal. He also called for a parliamentary vote on the deal, though it's unclear whether that will happen.

Iran's Fars News Agency over the weekend quoted ayatollah adviser Ali Akbar Velayati saying Khamenei's views "should be materialized." He added: "It is understood from the Supreme Leader's remarks that balance is necessary in the two sides' measures and in case of imbalance, nothing will be done."

The text of the Iran nuclear agreement actually refers to the "lifting" of sanctions. But the White House has said that sanctions "will snap back into place" if Iran violates its end, indicating they indeed see the sanctions relief as reversible.

MEMRI wrote that the upcoming meeting could be a forum for all parties to "discuss the Iranian demand for further concessions." MEMRI, though, warned that outright lifting sanctions "would constitute a fundamental change" to the deal. "This is because lifting the sanctions, rather than suspending them, will render impossible a snapback [of sanctions] in case of Iranian violations."

The nature of the discussions being held next week is unclear.

On Sept. 20, Kerry said he planned to meet with his Russian and his Iranian counterpart, "regarding Iran and other things." But he indicated the meeting would cover a range of topics, including the Syrian civil war.

While Fars reported that the Iranians will meet with P5+1 representatives in New York on Sept. 28, the State Department has not announced such a meeting.

Earlier this month, after Iran's Supreme Leader spoke out against the process for sanctions relief in the deal, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest put the onus on Iran to follow through with its end before sanctions relief is even implemented.

"We've been crystal-clear about the fact that Iran will have to take a variety of serious steps to significantly roll back their nuclear program before any sanctions relief is offered," he said. "... And only after those steps and several others have been effectively completed, will Iran begin to receive sanctions relief. The good news is all of this is codified in the agreement that was reached between Iran and the rest of the international community."

CrowBat

09-23-2015, 08:24 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-23-2015, 08:30 PM

CrowBat

09-23-2015, 08:38 PM

Ah yes, regarding your earlier questions...

So the Turkish airstrikes are mainly PKK focused and not IS...They are exclusively dedicated to the PKK - an affair that was never of much US interest, not even at the times when the PKK was supported by certain nation called 'Union of Soviet Socialist Republics' in order to establish a Marxist-Leninist state in SE Turkey...

....and probably because at those times (just like today), Kurds were such a handsome tool of Israel in its never-ending war against Arabs.

--so Turkey is an anti IS ally right?--'Turkey'? Not. But Erdogan's government and MIT... more or less: 'yes'.

...and munitions going to IS over the Turkish border and IS recruits still flowing through Turkey are what the Turkish war effort on IS.. come on CB.Where's the problem? Everybody is happy to get rid of his Jihadists. 'Better they go there and we bomb them, than they make trouble here'. So, if Turkish authorities are ah so friendly to transship them via border to the Daesh, even supply them with some fireworks... ever better, isn't it?

Why are you complaining about me then?

BTW Turkey has flown IS strikes as well.This sounds like if you would like to contradict yourself. Is that so?

BTW: did I say anything else? And if, then where?

CB--we are now at 33 Russian fighters in Syria--Evidence?

Syria #SAA claim #Russia handed over 5 fighter jets & reconnaissance aircraft to themEvidence?

Pity you'll never reply to this - like you never reply to any of my questions: there is such a funny anecdote related to Russian 'transfer affair', and just few days old - which I could offer in response...

CrowBat

09-23-2015, 09:27 PM

BTW, regarding these '33 Russian fighters in Syria': I think it's more.

Lookie here (attachment)... ;-)

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 05:25 AM

BTW, regarding these '33 Russian fighters in Syria': I think it's more.

Lookie here (attachment)... ;-)

Remember we started this conversation with your assertion that due to the lack of and or rather low airlift numbers there was not a massive surge underway--and I kept focusing you on the sealift side---remember if one runs the numbers they have been in a sealift mode since mid 2013.

Well it is there and being noticed by social media but not by MSM.

There is a very large ounce of truth in the figure of 22 Russian naval ships and one Chinese carrier in and around the Syrian coastline.

SyriaExpress turns Bosphorus into a Russian Navy expressway. Northbound Otrakovski passes next to southbound R109 pic.twitter.com/vu4jcqxBr4

CrowBat

09-24-2015, 06:17 AM

Remember we started this conversation with your assertion that due to the lack of and or rather low airlift numbers there was not a massive surge underway--and I kept focusing you on the sealift side---remember if one runs the numbers they have been in a sealift mode since mid 2013.I remember you were talking about some sort of 'massive airlift via Iran' too.

Have checked both of this: it turned out that several formations of Russian aircraft passed by - but only on 18-20 September. Some refuelled at Tabriz IAP.

And that's it.

So, 'sealift': perhaps, but not in relation to aircraft. And 'airlift': not really, rather 'transfer'.

And - except for the Su-24 formation IFR-ing over Homs - nothing of that has been noticed by social media. So much about depending on it for informing yourself.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 08:53 AM

First images of #Russian Drones in air and on the ground in #Latakia #Syria

https://twitter.com/M3t4_tr0n/status/646786295344201728 …

pic.twitter.com/wiE0KtdyzE

So is Russia now going Muslim--what happen to the ROC????

Russian state TV's coverage of the Muslim feast of #EidAlAdha is sure sign of imminent & official military involvement in #Syria

In case you want to know how the last negotiations with Assad went, read this intvw w peace envoy Brahimi from 2014 http://spon.de/aefyq

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 10:04 AM

The situation as it stands in #Syria pic.twitter.com/U67SKWTl82

Syria: Two [#Russian?] SU-24 over #Idlib reportedly. https://twitter.com/FPaidinfull/status/646958979424362496 …

Russia plans naval exercises in eastern Mediterranean this autumn. Yes, right off #Syria. https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/646954999457648640 …

Interesting as he is now a soccer trainer in Spain—
Syrian refugee tripped over by Hungarian journalist was part of Al Qaeda's Nusra front
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/syrian-refugee-tripped-over-by-hungarian-journalist-was-part-al-qaedas-nusra-front-647390 …

Kurds claim this---not confirmed since it comes from the Kurdish side.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 10:08 AM

I remember you were talking about some sort of 'massive airlift via Iran' too.

Have checked both of this: it turned out that several formations of Russian aircraft passed by - but only on 18-20 September. Some refuelled at Tabriz IAP.

And that's it.

So, 'sealift': perhaps, but not in relation to aircraft. And 'airlift': not really, rather 'transfer'.

And - except for the Su-24 formation IFR-ing over Homs - nothing of that has been noticed by social media. So much about depending on it for informing yourself.

Syrian Express in full swing --part of the 22 ship fleet being sent to Syrian waters---and scattered among the war ships are the freighters/LSTs.

Krivak class frigate Ladnyy 801 transits Bosphorus most likely en route to Eastern Mediterranean #ВМФ #SyriaExpress pic.twitter.com/zzidmx4yYW

Missile cruiser Moskva has left Sevastopol for Bosphorus to take part in RuNAVY seadrill in Eastern part of Mid sea pic.twitter.com/Mey25XPHho

295th Sulinsk Missile Boat Division's Tarantul III class missile boat R109 952 transits southbound Bosphorus #Syria pic.twitter.com/W0y0N1irG8

Chinese carrier has not been seen since the Suez canal---BUT the Chinese did commit to a joint Russian Chinese naval exercise in the Med.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 10:15 AM

I remember you were talking about some sort of 'massive airlift via Iran' too.

Have checked both of this: it turned out that several formations of Russian aircraft passed by - but only on 18-20 September. Some refuelled at Tabriz IAP.

And that's it.

So, 'sealift': perhaps, but not in relation to aircraft. And 'airlift': not really, rather 'transfer'.

And - except for the Su-24 formation IFR-ing over Homs - nothing of that has been noticed by social media. So much about depending on it for informing yourself.

Russian drones are now fully operational--watch for the Russians to begin extensive surveillance flights--once completed you will see the air strikes and BM 30 strikes. It all hinges on Putin's upcoming UNGA speech and how Obama responds to Putin's offer to work under Russian command.

Initial surveillance flights have been seen but more or less orientation flights for the ground crews--meaning the newcomers--Russia has had a GRU/Spetsnaz drone unit in Syria for awhile now.

As always they follow their offensive operations doctrine---

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 10:23 AM

This was reported by a local Sevastopol newspaper two weeks ago as they were from a GRU Spetsnaz unit in Sevastopol--in the article it was reported that one soldier had been beheaded--it was commented on twice and never again--MSM simply did not report it.

Crimean Tatar leader Mustafa Djemilev claims today "10 coffins have returned from Syria to Sevastopol already" (not info what his source is)

Djemilev is noted for his straight talking---so I am assuming the initial media report is in fact accurate.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 10:25 AM

RUAF An-124 82035 departed southern Russia 0210Z. pic.twitter.com/Ll1HkkzADp

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 10:49 AM

Thursday, September 24, 2015

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.de/2015/09/upcoming-obama-putin-meeting-at-un-part.html

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Upcoming Obama-Putin Meeting at UN Part of a New ‘Munich,’ Illarionov Says

Paul Goble

Staunton, September 24 – The apparent agreement of US President Barack Obama to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin next week in New York to discuss Syrian affairs represents a new Munich in which one side focuses on “peace in our time” and the other pockets recognition of his aggression while planning for more, Andrey Illarionov Says.

In a blog post this morning, following stories about American-Russian military to military talks Putin, the Russian commentator argues that what the world is seeing is “Munich-ization on the march” with eight disastrous consequences for Ukraine and the West more generally (aillarionov.livejournal.com/858406.html).

These are:

1. “The cooperation of Russia with the US on ‘the Syrian question’ in fact breaks the incomplete foreign policy isolation of Russia and removes from [Putin] the status of ‘outcast.’”

2. “All of Russia’s acquisitions in Ukraine are strengthened. Western leaders are entirely occupied with discussions about the need for talks with Assad.” They aren’t interested in talking about Ukraine.”

3. “With the valuable new ally the lifting or at a minimum softening of all sanctions is guaranteed either by the end of this year or at the beginning of next. An ally then, is that clear?”

4. “A new level of mobilization and discipline of Russian elites has been achieved. If someone in [Putin’s] entourage had been thinking that it was necessary to do something different, then to all it is perfectly clear that ‘papa has again done everything.’ Political elites, on the division of which certain hopes had been placed will again rally around the ‘alpha dog.’”

5. “The Kremlin will completely openly and legally introduce its forces into the Middle East.” Not just advisors but “real Russian forces” and apparently “now with the complete agreement and cover of the US.”

6. “The justification of Russian intervention … will not be handled not by Shoigu, Lavrov or even Peskov but by US Secretary of State Kerry: ‘In Syria, Russian soldiers are for the defense of Russian soldiers.’” The world will be struck dumb from laughter.

7. “With the support of Russia, the Shiite block of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah will become the most powerful force. A full-blown war will break out against the Sunnis. A major war in the Middle East will become inevitable.”

8. “And what will be the price of oil under conditions of a major war in the Middle East?”

In short, Putin will gain his goals, Ukraine will be sacrificed in the name of something supposedly larger, and, just like at the time of the original Munich, those who think they have secured “peace in our time” by such an exchange will discover, as Churchill put it, that they have chosen “dishonor over war” but will get war nonetheless.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:01 AM

BTW, regarding these '33 Russian fighters in Syria': I think it's more.

Lookie here (attachment)... ;-)

الله @HadiAlabdallah

Two Russian planes flying through Syria's northern skies; local observatories confirm picking up radio signals of pilots speaking Russian.

WeaponsOfDestruction ‏@WoDSerbia ·
How the #Russia'n Air Force moved 28 aircraft almost undetected to #Syria'n airbase Bassel Al-Assad in #Latakia

Here's how the Russian Air Force moved 28 aircraft to Syria (almost) undetected http://wp.me/p2TYIs-8M1

WeaponsOfDestruction ‏@WoDSerbia ·
#Russia'n drone seen in #Syria for the first time #Latakia

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:14 AM

http://observer.com/2015/09/obamas-collapsing-war-on-the-islamic-state/

Obama’s Collapsing War on the Islamic State

By John R. Schindler | 09/23/15 1:31pm

For the Obama administration, the news from the Middle East keeps going from bad to worse. Vladimir Putin’s power play, moving significant military forces into Syria to support his ailing client, Bashar al-Assad, caught the White House flat footed and unsure how to respond.

Although the administration gave the Kremlin de facto control over American policy in Syria some two years ago when it walked away from its own “red line,” granting Russia a veto on Western action there, President Obama and his national security staff nevertheless seem befuddled by this latest Russian move.

The forces Mr. Putin has just deployed to Syria are impressive, veteran special operators backed by a wing of fighters and ground attack jets that are expected to commence air strikes on Assad’s foes soon. They are backed by air defense units, which is puzzling since the Islamic State has no air force, indicating that the Kremlin’s true intent in Syria has little to do with the stated aim of fighting terrorism and is really about propping up Russia’s longtime client in Damascus.

The White House is left planning “deconfliction” with Moscow—which is diplomatic language for entreating Russians, who now dominate Syrian airspace, not to shoot down American drones, which provide the lion’s share of our intelligence on the Islamic State. The recent meeting on Syrian developments between Mr. Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who clearly finds dealing with the Russian strongman preferable to parleying with President Obama, indicates where power is flowing in today’s Middle East.

This is about much more than merely “cherry-picking” intelligence.

To make matters worse for the administration, new revelations regarding flawed intelligence assessments of the Islamic State, which I told you about last week, paint a troubling portrait of organized lying at the Pentagon. Some of the more than 50 analysts at Central Command in Tampa who blew the whistle on politicized intelligence reported feeling “bullied” to make their assessments of the U.S.-led war on the Islamic State appear more successful than the facts warranted. This is about much more than merely “cherry-picking” intelligence.

One named whistleblower has come forward about CENTCOM’s intelligence problems, explaining that he witnessed persistent, command-mandated low-balling of terrorist threats in Iraq since the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Rising terrorism in Iraq was “off message” for the White House, eager to pronounce jihadism there as dead as its leader.

David Shedd, who until recently was the acting director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, which supplies CENTCOM with many of its analysts, spoke for colleagues still serving with his caution that such rampant politicization of intelligence cannot be tolerated. In language sure to cause heartburn at the White House, Mr. Shedd stated, “the problem is not a stand-alone case but systemic.” In response, Congress has taken interest in the allegations and President Obama’s problems there are only now starting to take political shape.

An even greater blow to President Obama’s diffident war against the Islamic State, known to the Pentagon as Operation Inherent Resolve, came this week with the stunning news that John Allen, the White House’s “war czar,” is stepping down this fall. In that job for almost exactly a year, Mr. Allen, a retired Marine four-star general whose last uniformed position was commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, enjoyed a bumpy tenure thanks to frequent meddling by West Wing staffers.

Mr. Allen, ostensibly charged with managing the war across agencies in tandem with allies, was unable to secure the military assets he believed were needed to defeat the Islamic State, for instance meeting strong White House resistance to his plans to put air controllers on the ground to guide airstrikes by Western forces. Although Mr. Allen has portrayed his resignation as a personal matter, due to his wife’s health problems, Pentagon insiders insist this an excuse to save face—mainly President Obama’s.

The main culprit is micromanagement by White House staffers, especially on the National Security Council, which is bloated and regularly treats senior military officers and diplomats like hired help. Obscenity-laced tirades by senior NSC staff are not uncommon. To make matters worse, significant differences between the NSC and the Pentagon on how to defeat the Islamic State went unresolved for months, leading to lethargy inside the Beltway while U.S. theater commanders were close to panicking about the enemy’s rise. Mr. Allen eventually had enough.

Now the White House needs to find a replacement who’s up to the job, which looks to be no easy task. “Good luck with that,” stated a senior Pentagon official, “I doubt they’ll find another four-star eager to be the dog who catches that car.” A senior NATO official explained that Mr. Allen’s departure “is really a serious blow. We had little confidence before in President Obama’s ability to defeat Daesh,” the Arabic term for the Islamic State. “Now we have none.”

As long as Mr. Putin calibrates his strategy to realistic expectations, he may avoid the overreach disasters that plagued the American wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Mr. Allen is leaving an administration in disarray in the Middle East. President Obama’s promise to grow a “moderate” Syrian opposition force of thousands, able to serve as an alternative to Assad and the jihadists alike, is in tatters, with only a handful of fighters remaining. The resulting gap has been filled by the Russians, who have entered the Levantine fray with gusto and purpose.

Secretary of State John Kerry presented the deployment of Russian jet fighters to Syria as “basically force protection,” but Pentagon planners are less charitable in their assessments. “The only ‘force’ the Russians are protecting themselves from with Su-30s,” referring to the four modern fighters deployed to Syria, “is the U.S. Air Force,” one military officer said to me.

Some Pentagon staffers are taking comfort in hopes that the Russians will find themselves mired in a messy stalemate in Syria, whose civil war has raged for four bloody and indecisive years already. That may be optimistic, however, as Russian spies and soldiers have served in Syria for over a half-century and many of them are well acquainted with Syrian realities. As long as Mr. Putin calibrates his strategy to realistic expectations, he may avoid the overreach disasters that plagued the American wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

What happens next in Syria is the top guessing game among security experts the world over right now. Has Mr. Putin finally gone too far? Can anything be salvaged from that awful conflict that could serve Western interests while stopping the rise of the Islamic State—and perhaps even save innocent lives? What is the aim of Operation Inherent Resolve now that General Allen is leaving the stage? All that’s certain at this point is that President Obama’s flailing war against the Islamic State is looking for a strategy as well as a new czar.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:22 AM

And what is #Assad doing on the first day of #EidAlAdha 2015?
Bombing the hell out of #Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAF6Vk15-2M … pic.twitter.com/X9WFT8WghC

Syria Reports Regime airstrikes killed 600 people in #IS held city of #Palmyra in desert of eastern #Homs the past 10 days smartnews-agency

Syria #Aleppo Rebels blow up #IS-car-bomber before reached #Ahras village http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.397589&lon=37.146406&z=15&m=b …

Syria #IslamicState launched now new attempt to storm #DeirEzZor airbase
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.285845&lon=40.178719&z=14&m=b …

Syria #FSA hunting #Assad-forces with SPG 9 in #Latakia mountains
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuP9xxQAGS8 …

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:36 AM

THIs has to be a “fake” field report—crazy if true---unconfirmed as of yet—will be interesting to see if this grabs traction---

WTH? This must be a wind up, surely?
Motorola and troop detachment taken prisoner in Syria by ISIS
24 Sep http://qha.com.ua/en/events-incidents/motorola-taken-prisoner-in-syria/134001/ …

Assad's way of wishing "#EidMubarak" to the people of #Talbisah ... with 2 barrel bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UB6p9tETqLg … pic.twitter.com/vHq6bnTs6R

Footage
"Small wishes" by the #FreeSyrian children who live under #Assad's bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGcBojI4e_g …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/CRrWYNY374

More Russian disinformation from Syria----
Fake refugee camp - #Russia'n military camp in #Syria turned into 'refugee camp' for the day! https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/646989252618776576

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:40 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:47 AM

You do know that Abu Zayd was not 'vetted'...?

Ah yes, you've 'found out', later on... Guess, the Catholic Intelligence Agency - too.

#### happens, hun.

CENTCOMs failure again……..

Ex Div 30 (now "Atareb's revolutionaries") leader Anas Ibrahim Abu Zayd, told #JN that he tricked the #USA

Advantage #Russia has over #USA in #Syria: #Moscow consider #SAA its boots on d ground. While U.S trained group is gone w/ d wind of #AQ.

It was a deal not a defection or surrender.leader div 30 resignation:

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:54 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 11:56 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 12:15 PM

This Reuters PR is a potential problem for DoS Kerry—if these are the Russian aircraft flown by Russian pilots then IT fully violates Kerry’s statement—“hey they are there for self defense”—NOT a problem if it means the 5 Russian fighters just supplied to the Syrian AF flown by Syrian pilots.

BUT there was a social media field report that two fighters were flying over IS today speaking Russian.

IF Russian aircraft flown by Russian pilots air conducting air strikes—then Kerry basically lied to the US public….AS that is definitely no "self defense".

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/24/us-mideast-crisis-syria-jets-idUSKCN0RO15V20150924?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Thu Sep 24, 2015 7:27am EDT

Syrian army uses new Russian jets to strike Islamic State: monitor

BEIRUT
Syrian government forces used newly arrived Russian warplanes to bombard Islamic State fighters in Aleppo province in northern Syria, a monitor said on Thursday, in an attempt to break a siege on a nearby air base.

Air strikes that began during the week were accompanied by ground attacks near the Kweiris air base in the east of Aleppo province, where government troops have long been holed up, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 12:58 PM

Footage
#FSA SPG-9 shell misses #Assad troops in #Latakia province by some meters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuP9xxQAGS8 …
pic.twitter.com/HazOiv5liY

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 02:17 PM

Crow Bat--for you ---heads up------

GRU operative from St. Pete, fighting in Donetsk (http://gruz200.net/?n=953 ), killed in Syria 9/22. The IRONY. http://vk.com/wall-3223620_1228475?reply=1228606 …

Do you finally see the relationship between the eastern Ukraine and Syria??

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 02:42 PM

Syrian Express in full swing----now the SS-N-22s are coming into Syria---

Tarantula III (SS-N-22 anti-ship missile),Alexander Otrakovski landing ship in #Bosphorus #İstanbul
📷 @YorukIsik pic.twitter.com/wxi7ozZTpF

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 06:16 PM

VIDEO: Jaish al-Islam destroy another #SAA tank in eastern #Ghouta, #Syria.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIXtujo5Ack&feature=youtu.be …

Syria #Russia'n reconnaissance aircraft abow #Idlib /#KefrayaFuahhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BjnL_26QBg&feature=youtu.be …

Liwa Suqur Horan & Katibat Majed Islam have merged with #JaishIslam in #Daraa countryside https://www.jaishalislam.com/subject/341

Russia-n reporter outside #Palmyra 300 m from #ISIS positions comes under fire - no casualty
https://twitter.com/MilitaryMaps/status/646362009110474752 …

Seven Russian vetoes in the UNSC that covered up mass atrocities in own interests-Infographichttp://euromaidanpress.com/2015/09/24/russias-veto-power-in-the-unsc-protects-own-geopolitical-interests-not-international-security-infographic/ … pic.twitter.com/8sQoiQiTJX

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 06:19 PM

http://theaviationist.com/2015/09/23/how-the-russians-deployed-28-aircraft-to-syria/

Here’s how the Russian Air Force moved 28 aircraft to Syria (almost) undetected

By David Cenciotti

It’s not easy to move 28 aircraft and keep the deployment confidential.

Satellite imagery released in the last couple of days has exposed the presence of 28 Russian aircraft at al-Assad airfield, near Latakia, in western Syria.

The photographs taken from space gave us the possibility to identify the combat planes as 4x Su-30SMs, 12x Su-25s (based on their color scheme, these are Su-25SMs belonging to the 368th Assault Aviation Regiment from Budyonnovsk) and 12 Su-24M2s along with about a dozen helicopters, including 10 Mi-24PN, Mi-35M and a couple of Mi-8AMTSh choppers, from the 387th Army Aviation Air Base Budyonnovsk.

One of our sources with IMINT Imagery Intel experience, who has had access to the imagery in the public domain, noticed something interesting on one of the Su-30SM: the first on the left (the one closer to the runway threshold) should be equipped with a KNIRTI SPS-171 / L005S Sorbtsiya-S mid/high band defensive jammer (ECM) at the wing tips. To be honest this is almost impossible to verify unless more high-resolution images become available.

Whilst satellite shots provided much details about the deployed assets, they obviously didn’t help answer the basic question: how did they manage to reach Syria undetected?

According to one source close who wishes to remain anonymous, the Russian combat planes have probably deployed to Latakia trailing the cargo planes that were tracked flying to Syria and back on Flightradar24.com, something that other analysts have also suggested.

There is someone who believes that during their ferry flight, some if not all the formation (each made of a cargo plane and four accompanying fast jets), may have made a stopover in Iran before flying the last leg to Latakia. This would also explain why some Il-76s (with an endurance that would allow a non-stop fly from Russia to Latakia) were observed stopping at Hamadan on Sept. 18-19, just before the Sukhois started appearing on the tarmac at Latakia.

Also interesting is the activity of several Israeli aircraft, including a G550 “Nachshon Aitam,” a sort of mini-AWACS equipped with 2 L-band antennas, on both sides of the fuselage, and 2 S-band antennas, on the nose and tail of the aircraft.

The G550, a so-called CAEW (Conformal Airborne Early Warning) asset, flew a mission over the eastern Mediterranean Sea off Lebanon on Sept. 20 (and could be tracked online on Flightradar24.com…). Just a coincidence?

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 06:31 PM

Breaking Syrian Army captures the the imperative Palmyra-Teefor Airbase Road in east Homs; 29 ISIS fighters killed:

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-captures-the-palmyra-teefor-airbase-road/ …

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-military-intelligence-help-the-syrian-air-force-kill-a-large-number-of-isis-terrorists-in-al-raqqa/

Russian Military Intelligence Help the Syrian Air Force Kill a Large Number of ISIS Terrorists in Al-Raqqa

By Leith Fadel on September 24, 2015

The recent arrival of the Russian military advisors has found the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) specifically concentrated on the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham’s (ISIS) positions in the eastern Syrian provinces of Deir Ezzor, Al-Hasakah, Homs, and Al-Raqqa.

On Wednesday morning, the Syrian Air Force launched a series of airstrikes above the Al-Raqqa Governorate that targeted ISIS’ supply route from the aforementioned province to the Deir Ezzor Governorate; this supply route is considered ISIS’ lifeline in both Iraq and Syria due to the long highway that stretches from Al-Raqqa to the Iraqi Al-‘Anbar Governorate.

The specific locations the Syrian Air Force targeted in Al-Raqqa were the Azeri Battalion Camp, Al-Khasna Battalion Camp, New Hisbah Headquarters, ISIS Shari’ah Courts, Al-Takhfeekh Repository, and a large weapons supply depot; these coordinates were all provided by the Russian military advisors, as they shared satellite imagery to reveal ISIS’ locations.

According to a field report from a senior officer in the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), the airstrikes have done significant damage to ISIS’ positions in Al-Raqqa; this includes the death of over 140 members of the terrorist group, including the field commander of the Azeri Battalion, “Abu Dawoud Al-Azerbaijani.”

The primary objective of these airstrikes is to forestall ISIS’ movements along the Syrian and Iraqi border, while also attacking their large convoy of reinforcements to their embattled comrades at a number of battlefields.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 06:37 PM

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/chinese-military-personnel-expected-to-arrive-in-syria/

Chinese Military Personnel Expected to Arrive in Syria 

By Leith Fadel on September 23, 2015

The recent arrival of the Russian Marines and Air Force to the Syrian port-city of Tartous has generated a significant amount of interest around the world, as the possibility of Russia’s direct military intervention becomes the focal point of the war on ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham).

Should the Russians begin military operations in Syria, what role with the U.S. led “Anti-ISIS Coalition” play in combatting the terrorist group? Will they coordinate with one another? Will they avoid one another?

It seems both sides have their own strategy to combat ISIS, but the U.S. has had far more experience fighting the terrorist group, despite their minimal success in obstructing their growth and advance in Syria and Iraq.

Russia seems poised to take a similar approach to the U.S. led Coalition; however, they are not seeking the assistance of the neighboring Arab countries to combat the terrorist group.

Instead, the Russians appear to have a contingency that involves another world power that was absent from the U.S. led Anti-ISIS Coalition: China.

On Tuesday morning, a Chinese naval vessel reportedly traveled through Egypt’s Suez Canal to enter the Mediterranean Sea; its destination was not confirmed.

However, according to a senior officer in the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) that is stationed inside the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, Chinese military personnel and aerial assets are scheduled to arrive in the coming weeks (6 weeks) to the port-city of Tartous – he could not provide anymore detail.

Russia has made it abundantly clear that they are taking an active role in this conflict, but the news of the Chinese military to Syria provides more insight into their contingency.

It appears that Russia is not going to combat ISIS alone: the plan is similar to the U.S.’ idea of a “coalition” of air forces, but far more involved on the ground; this is something the U.S. and their allies have avoided since the inception of their war against ISIS.

Despite all of this, Russia and the U.S. appear to be at it again; however, this is no space or arms race, they are actively flexing their muscles through their proxies (U.S.: rebels and Russia: Syrian Army).

A total of four Chinese naval vessels have transitioned via the Seuz Canal to Syrian waters ---one is a carrier.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 06:55 PM

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/24/pentagon-russian-drones-pilots-scouting-targets-in-syria.html

Pentagon: Russian Drones, Pilots Scouting Targets in Syria

New moves indicate Putin's forces are preparing to attack targets other than ISIS to help Bashar al-Assad.

U.S. officials have now spotted a Russia drone and several manned flights by Russian pilots familiarizing themselves with terrain over western Syria, two U.S. defense officials told The Daily Beast on Thursday.

The flights, around the western Syrian province of Idlib, suggests that Russia's initial mission will focus on attacking areas controlled by regime opponents other than the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The flights are also near Latakia, where Russia has a base and has stationed fighter jets, roughly 500 troops, nine T-90 tanks and enough modular housing for 2,00 troops, according to U.S. military assessments.

“We still don’t know what their intent is,” one U.S. defense official told The Daily Beast. The flight activities “suggests they are planning ot conduct some kind of air operation.”
Others defense officials believe the flights are designed to protect bases belonging to Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime.

In addition to the surveillance drones, Russia has “Fencer” advanced-attack aircraft jets and “Frogfoot” jets for close air support among its arsenal, according to U.S. estimates.

The presence of both manned and unmanned aircrafts marks the most aggressive military maneuver by President Vladimir Putin’s forces since their build up in Syria began several weeks ago.

U.S. officials had told The Daily Beast earlier this week that they expected Russian military activity to begin soon as 28 combat planes, 26 helicopters and other various equipment began pouring into Syria.

The possible escalated Russian intervention on behalf of the Assad regime could bolster Assad’s military standing. In recent weeks, Assad troops have lost parts of Aleppo and Idlib provinces, potentially leading Russia to bolster its presence in the conflict.

But some U.S. officials worry that Russia’s intervention could weaken the U.S. ability to shape the outcome in the year-long war against ISIS.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 06:57 PM

RUAF An-124 82035 from Latakia now over Iran and heading to Mozdok

News
Syr rebels in Tal Wasat expect a Russian offensive from #Joureen through d #Ghab plain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZDwtf4H2-s …

IMAGE allegedly of #Russia(n) recon aircraft over #fuah / #kafraya #Idlib #Syria today https://twitter.com/DPRKJones/status/647064359164731392 … pic.twitter.com/n3bHiMQkjC
Was the ll-20

So Russian & Hungarian (self-acknowledged) Nazis are now fighting Islamic fundamentalists in Syria. Who should we root for? I'm confused.

Russia #Syria The only people who don't believe Russia has offensive intentions in Syria are at the White House and State Department.

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 09:59 PM

Appears the 10 Russian KIA from Syria is confirmed now--11 counting the GRU KIA from 9/22.

Trusted #ЧФ #Russia source: 10 killed Russian marines, cargo-200, delivered from #Syria to #Sevastopol
TT @newsburko pic.twitter.com/nsZ4HDAaY2

#ЧФ is the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation

OUTLAW 09

09-24-2015, 10:01 PM

PHOTOS: What looks to be a MiG-29 flying in the skies over Eastern Ghouta #Syria #Damascus - @IraqiSuryani1
pic.twitter.com/Ml1mDolqTF

PHOTO: Su-30 in #Latakia #Syria - @FPaidinfull
pic.twitter.com/S5KU3yrr3O

This must come as a huge shock to many rebels/fighters in Syria.
https://twitter.com/HDNER/status/647108339663372288 …

After Shoigu-Karter talks, Russia's fueling a big Shia-Sunni war in Middle East under US's cover , oil price to jump - Illarionov

Putin likely to announce in UN the joint actions of Syria, Iraq, Iran and Russia against IS - MOD Russia's source.

Russians now on the ground in Iraq-----
Fox Excl: Russians now on ground in Iraq; Russian pilots, warplanes now flying over Syria: US mil sources. http://fxn.ws/1OVFB9e

davidbfpo

09-24-2015, 10:04 PM

Cited in part:
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/chinese-military-personnel-expected-to-arrive-in-syria/

A total of four Chinese naval vessels have transitioned via the Seuz Canal to Syrian waters ---one is a carrier.

Awhile ago now there was a post that the Chinese Navy on their last visit to the Mediterranean, did not visit Syria, they visited Israel. T'is an odd world. The visit was in 2013 see:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=21223

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 05:24 AM

Cited in part:

Awhile ago now there was a post that the Chinese Navy on their last visit to the Mediterranean, did not visit Syria, they visited Israel. T'is an odd world. The visit was in 2013 see:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=21223

What is even odder is the fact that this naval exercise was announced during Putin's last visit to China--so is that move into Syria the result of a long planning phase or ad hoc. Then nothing was said until yesterday in Russian media although there has been massive naval ship movements via Turkey.

Then a single article out of the ME indicating that the Chinese were going to land troops in Syria as well--more important is watching the carrier's movements. There has never been comments on this anywhere.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 05:27 AM

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/22/us-mideast-syria-crisis-ahrar-insight-idUSKCN0RM0EZ20150922

Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:07am EDT

Resilient insurgent group Ahrar al-Sham to play bigger role in Syria

BEIRUT | By Mariam Karouny

When an explosion killed almost all of its leaders in a single blow last year, many thought it was the end for Ahrar al-Sham, a powerful Syrian insurgent group founded by members loyal to al Qaeda.

But the group immediately re-emerged stronger. It replaced its leader and chose new military commanders. A few months later, it joined a coalition of insurgent groups that seized the city of Idlib with at least 2,000 fighters, making it the most influential group in the Fatah Army (Army of Conquest), which includes al Qaeda's Syria wing, the Nusra Front.

The group now has even loftier ambitions. With strong backing from Syria's neighbor Turkey, Ahrar al-Sham (the Free Men of Syria) is playing a significant role in Syria's four year old civil war - if not the biggest among insurgent group apart from Islamic State.

Its fighters control Bab al-Hawa, the only legal crossing between Turkey and Syria's rebel-held areas, and are powerful around Aleppo and Idlib.

The emergence of strong rebel groups such as Ahrar al-Sham which have political representation as well as military strength could help address a long-standing criticism of the opposition to President Bashar al-Assad: the disconnect between the constellation of armed groups in Syria and the Turkey-based political coalition that does not speak for any of them.

A western diplomat said that Ahrar al-Sham is seen as a decentralized, pragmatic group that is willing to work with other groups, and it will most likely have a say in any future peace talks.

While its late leadership showed no interest in the idea of ruling, Ahrar al-Sham's current command appears to want a part in any long-term solution in Syria.

It is already negotiating with Assad's government and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah over the fate of a rebel-held town near the border with Lebanon and two government-held Shi'ite towns under rebel siege in northwest province Idlib.

The talks, which have collapsed at least twice, are backed by Turkey and Iran, regional heavyweights on opposite sides of the conflict. They have given Ahrar al-Sham the advantage of negotiation experience in any future talks to find an end to the war.

They have also demonstrated Ahrar al-Sham's standing among rebel groups, who have respected the ceasefire agreements it negotiated. That includes Nusra Front.

"Ahrar al-Sham is now a nucleus of a state," said one of the group's commanders, giving an interview to Reuters over the Internet on condition he not be identified. "Ahrar has a strong foundation, it consists of scientific and academic cadres that are not present in all of other Syria's groups together."

"The fact that the movement overcame the assassination of all its first line leaders quickly and had a strong comeback, shows that it is an institutional movement," the commander added.

No one has claimed responsibility for the blast that killed the group's leaders.

Since then, it has set up offices that deal with politics and military, religious, social and financial matters. Each bureau is independent but reports to a higher command.

"We as a movement still believe that one of the ways to achieve change is through arms. We cooperate with all groups on all fronts," the commander said.

Despite its origins as an ally of al Qaeda, Ahrar al-Sham plays down any commitment to global jihad and emphasizes its national credentials as a Syrian movement that respects the country’s borders. It says its fight is limited to the Syrian front.

Such a position would come as a relief to Western countries worried about jihad spreading to Europe and elsewhere.

Aware of the West's growing fear of the influence and strength of hardline jihadist groups inside Syria, Ahrar al-Sham has published editorials in two Western newspapers, distancing itself from hardliners and saying it would protect religious minorities.

It also opposes the ultra-hardline group Islamic State.

QAEDA LINKS?

When it was formed, it had strong ties with the leadership of al Qaeda. Its slain top commander Abu Khaled al-Soury fought alongside al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden and was close to bin Laden's successor Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Since the deaths of its leadership, it had an interim leader until last week, when it finally selected Abu Yahya al-Hamawi as new permanent leader. A civil engineer and veteran militant in his 30s, the new leader reached out to other rebel groups in his first message, promising they would be included in any deal his group strikes.

"We will all be partners in the decision and in the execution of it," he said on his Twitter account.

Due to its strong relationship to Turkey and its decision to take part in talks with the Syrian government, it has sometimes come under criticism from other rebel groups.

Under its new leadership it is trying to differentiate itself from al Qaeda, angering the Nusra Front and other hardliners. But its al Qaeda-linked background means Ahrar al-Sham still has a special relationship with the Nusra Front.

Rebels inside Syria say Ahrar al-Sham supplied many of Nusra's weapons. It was not clear if it was still doing so.

A former Nusra fighter who has now left the war said Nusra and Ahrar once had strong relations.

"All I know is that Nusra sees Ahrar as their source for weapons, especially in some battles," he said. "They are moving away from military work and putting their strength in administrating liberated areas."

"Their strength is evident in running the Bab al-Hawa crossing. They control it after kicking everyone else out and hence they control the trade in and out of Syria, putting the transfer of goods to all Syria under their control. They have become self-funded after imposing taxes on goods coming into Syria," he said.

It is not only other rebel groups that are keeping a close eye on Ahrar al-Sham's rise - its enemies are equally watchful.

"We have noticed they are trying to distance themselves from Qaeda but they remain Salafis, this can not be denied," said a military commander on the Syrian government side who is also close to negotiations with the group. Salafis are followers of the austere form of Sunni Islam preached by al Qaeda.

"Unlike most Syrian insurgents, they do have a structure and their fighters are loyal to the leadership and effectively implement its orders."

CrowBat

09-25-2015, 05:30 AM

Then a single article out of the ME indicating that the Chinese were going to land troops in Syria as well--more important is watching the carrier's movements. There has never been comments on this anywhere....which is rather amazing, considering China has only one aircraft carrier ('CV-16', Liaoning) - all movements of which are closely monitored and regularly reported on the internet (in far more dependent fashion than anything happening in Syria).

Alone her appearance anywhere near the Suez Canal would set all alarm bells in the West on...

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 05:31 AM

New! Russian work at al-Assad Airbase in #Latakia #Syria. SU-30SM/SU-24/SU-25/IL-76/HIND-24.http://bit.ly/1G5Qazm pic.twitter.com/CNNiiS112A

First mention of the Mi-24 and IL-76 at the base.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 05:33 AM

Putin on Charlie Rose interview: "The syrian people should decide the government". But in Ukraine..not so much..

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 11:33 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 11:39 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 01:28 PM

Putin goes to UN, Putin scores meeting with Obama, Putin kicks UN out of Donbass and then...? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/25/world/europe/un-agencies-told-to-leave-east-ukraine.html?ref=europe …

Is Russian action in Syria intended to preserve Assad? "You're right" Putin replies in CBS interview http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11890352/Vladimir-Putin-Supporting-Syrian-regime-only-way-to-end-war.html …

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
after months of bile,threats of nukes,Russian propagandist announces his "respect" for Americans in time for #UNGA https://twitter.com/DmKiselevTV/status/647100867628429312 …

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 03:49 PM

Russian fighter jets enter Syria with transponders off

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/24/politics/syria-russian-fighter-jets/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report …

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 04:09 PM

From the same Obama official that stated the Europeans were the ones that said for the US to do a Russian reset…………

You can almost feel the ground shifting in Washington. Fmr senior Obama aide calls for rethink of Syria policy http://politi.co/1MtPMQ7

So many holes in this piece arguing for deferring discussion of fate of Assad -- by Obama's ex-top Mideast hand

From Putin in CBS interview---"And there is no other solution to the Syrian crisis than strengthening the effective government structures and rendering them help in fighting terrorism. But at the same time, urging them to engage in positive dialogue with the rational opposition and conduct reform," Putin added.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 06:08 PM

Not confirmed yet by other sources----

مي @Sayyad_1

Undercover Ansari warrior Beheads a Russian soldier in Hama city in a mall.( a Prelude to what is coming) https://twitter.com/saalh1995/status/647433623461736448 …

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 06:13 PM

...which is rather amazing, considering China has only one aircraft carrier ('CV-16', Liaoning) - all movements of which are closely monitored and regularly reported on the internet (in far more dependent fashion than anything happening in Syria).

Alone her appearance anywhere near the Suez Canal would set all alarm bells in the West on...

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-in-syria-unconfirmed-reports-of-more-drone-flights-and-cargo-200/#10141

Chinese Navy Will Reportedly Join Russian Mission In Syria

16:27 (GMT)

The pro-Assad media is not the only source reporting that Chinese naval ships may be headed toward Syria (see previous update below). Earlier today the pro-Kremlin outlet Pravda, citing a Russian official, also reported that Chinese ships are headed toward Syria:

According to the Russian Senator Igor Morozov, Beijing has taken decision to take part in combating IS and sent its vessels to the Syrian coast.

Igor Morozov, member of the Russian Federation Committee on International Affairs claimed about the beginning of the military operation by China against the IS terrorists. "It is known, that China has joined our military operation in Syria, the Chinese cruiser has already entered the Mediterranean, aircraft carrier follows it," Morozov said.

According to him, Iran may soon join the operation carried out by Russia against the IS terrorists, via Hezbollah. Thus, the Russian coalition in the region gains ground, and most reasonable step of the US would be to join it.

We'd like to see another source on these reports, but the intended signal being sent by the Kremlin and the Assad regime is clear even if the news is unconfirmed -- Russia and Assad are clearly trying to position their mission in Syria as legitimate, multi-lateral, and anti-terrorist in nature.

However, as we've pointed out, ISIS, the terrorist group in question, has no presence in either Latakia or nearby Idlib province, meaning that a Russian military buildup in northwest Syria likely has little to do with combating terrorism and has more to do with striking more moderate rebel groups who pose a threat to the Assad regime.

More Russian Ships Spotted Moving Toward Syria, Reports That China May Join Them

15:53 (GMT)

The Russian state-run outlet RIA Novosti reports that the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva or "Moscow," has passed through the Bosphorus Straight and is on its way toward Syria:

This news is confirmed by other sources who watch the straight:

It's not the only ship moving southward through the Bosphorus in recent days , according to Bosphorus Naval News. Several ships have recently left the Crimean port of Sevastopol, headed southbound:

Recently a series of NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) alerts have been issued for the area between the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria, and the island of Cyprus, warning of Russian naval exercises and rocket tests. We have mapped the coordinates given in the notices here (map):

2015-09-25 16:10:26

It may not just be Russian naval activity picking up in the area, however. Grainy images reportedly showing Russian drones above Syria are increasingly common:

These follow reports of increased Russian drone and military aircraft flights above northwestern Syria:

Now there are also rumors, coming from pro-Assad media, that China may be sending its own forces to Syria to assist the Russian mission in Syria:

Al Masdar News reports:

On Tuesday morning, a Chinese naval vessel reportedly traveled through Egypt’s Suez Canal to enter the Mediterranean Sea; its destination was not confirmed.

However, according to a senior officer in the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) that is stationed inside the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, Chinese military personnel and aerial assets are scheduled to arrive in the coming weeks (6 weeks) to the port-city of Tartous – he could not provide anymore detail.

Russia has made it abundantly clear that they are taking an active role in this conflict, but the news of the Chinese military to Syria provides more insight into their contingency.

It appears that Russia is not going to combat ISIS alone: the plan is similar to the U.S.’ idea of a “coalition” of air forces, but far more involved on the ground; this is something the U.S. and their allies have avoided since the inception of their war against ISIS.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 06:21 PM

Bill Roggio @billroggio Editor Long wars Journal---
Am so tired of reading this nonsense: "Mr. Obama, who had promised to end the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan..."

President Obama isn't "ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan," he is ending US involvement in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

After Obama "ended the war in Iraq," the country descended into chaos, and the Islamic State took over larger areas.

All those memes and viral FB posts about "#ISIS moving to Europe as refugees"? turn out most are #ShiaMilitias http://www.frbiu.com/militias-in-eu-160516061578158715761610-1605160416101588161015751578-16011610-15751608158515761575.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 06:27 PM

New Russian Activity in Syria: Mi-8 and Ka-27 located southeast of Latakia http://defence-blog.com/news/new-russian-activity-in-syria-mi-8-and-ka-27-located-southeast-of-latakia.html … [via @Defence_blog]

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 06:40 PM

And the other Chinese naval ships engaging in an Russian led naval exercise in the Med which was first announced in the Putin visit to China then went off the radar screen into silence and then only announced yesterday in Russian controlled media AFTER a massive shift of Russian naval ships from the Black Sea to the Med reported again by social media and absolutely zero from MSM --THAT does not cause alarm bells?

Remember it was social media two days ago that talked about a 22 ship Russian/Chinese naval exercise and the massive increase in Russian naval movements---not MSM--check the current MSM--still no reporting on that exercise.

The interesting thing about the alleged Chinese troops on the ground in Syria is that it was from an Arabic media source AND even more stranger never denied by anyone especially Chinese media who monitors anything worldwide said about China.

Nor for example the Iranian, Russian, Iraqi Joint Operations Center being opened in Iraq caused not a single wave when it was reported as well first via social media and still not really picked up yet by MSM.

NOR did it cause a wave when the first social media report of 10 Russian KIAs actually 11 with the 9/22 KIA from Syria was reported a full week before Putin's moves into Syria and now that has been confirmed by other sources as being correct.

That are a number of moving parts in Syria that are not being reported for a number of reasons JUST as they are still ongoing attacks against Ukrainian Armed Forces not being reported as it does not "fit" the current "atmosphere" to report them.

The carrier's participation was mentioned in the Putin Chinese visit as part of the exercise announcement--and that as well did not get much MSM coverage.

What is most interesting is the configuration of the Russian and Chinese fleet and what they are power projecting as a "desired perception"--therein lies the true story--will be interesting to see if main stream media picks up on it. Remember the Chinese have also been on "piracy patrols" recently as well along side NATO/US naval units which did not get much MSM coverage.

Remember when the US 6th Fleet carriers roamed the Med at will? Their replacement will be then what???

The Russian Med Fleet as they have acquired the required support basing agreements over the last year while everyone was watching events in the Ukraine.

Russia, Syria and Iran are working together in Baghdad to co-ordinate Shia militias fighting ISIS... https://apple.news/AeXK2eWefTh-5Tc6RVtrMLw …

Russians have been busy. See Russian Air Force flights to Baghdad-Tehran-Latakia to form coordination cell in Baghdad http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/24/russians-syrians-and-iranians-setting-up-military-coordination-cell-in-baghdad/ …

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2015/09/22/assadland-russian-protectorate/ii04

Only a few weeks ago, the al-Assad regime seemed in danger of losing the swath of land from Latakia to Damascus to the assaults of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Jabat al-Nusra and others. Today, Russia has taken over and brought in heavy weapons. Not only can Bashar al-Assad breathe a sigh of relief, but the entire Syrian scene should now be revisited from three different angles.

First, this is about rescuing al-Assad from the edge of a cliff. The hypothesis of the entire country falling to ISIL and the al-Assads fleeing to Sochi is now implausible. Al-Assad is in safe hands. If ever rebel groups still want to conquer Syria’s west, their unlimited violence will be met by the Russian army, not the teetering regime forces.

But this is not just about rescuing one man. By establishing a strategic presence in Syria, President Vladimir Putin is securing the future of a vital ally in the Middle East, one that has long had its military trained and equipped by Russia, and making western Syria into Russia’s strategic base in the Middle East.

This new situation raises a number of questions.

One is the anti-terrorist branding of the operation. Officially, Moscow presents its support to al-Assad, past and present, as its contribution to fighting terrorism, especially from ISIL. This is a faint excuse as al-Assad not only created the jihadist group by freeing dozens of prisoners from the Sednaya Prison near Damascus but also failed to take on ISIL seriously. Deep down, is Russia really intent on eliminating ISIL, or does it want to use it as the scarecrow that makes al-Assad look tolerable?

Another question is the de facto alliance this situation creates between the U.S.-led coalition, Iran, and Russia against ISIL. Will these “allies” now coordinate strikes against ISIL targets? Or will they only try avoiding accidental mishaps? How will Iran’s Pasdaran and Hezbollah fighters present on Syrian soil interact with Russian forces? How will the U.S.-trained and equipped rebels, or what’s left of this embarrassing venture, fit into this new equation? Will this alter the (limited) French and British plans for striking ISIL in Syria? How will Israel tolerate more sophisticated weaponry so close to home?

As a side effect, Russia’s move neutralizes Ankara’s adamant ambitions to remove al-Assad from power. Ironically, it also provides a sigh of relief for President François Hollande, who narrowly avoided the embarrassment of seeing the French-built Mistral ships participating in the buildup, had the sale not been canceled.

The second angle is Russia’s strategic military presence in the Middle East. So far, Russia has had only a limited footprint in Syria, mainly the naval maintenance facility in Tartus. This is now being expanded into a more strategic foothold. Predictably, the runway at Latakia airport will be doubled in length to make it usable by the heaviest Antonov cargo planes and the fastest fighter-bomber aircraft; air defenses will be beefed up; heavy armor will be deployed; air control capacity will be enhanced; and new air-to-ground missiles will be provided to the Syrian air force.

In this way, Putin, who had accurately analyzed President Barack Obama’s “reluctant warrior” attitude in August 2013, can safely consider that the scenario of a full-scale Western intervention in Syria, if it ever seriously existed, is now shelved. In U.S. Senator John McCain’s words, Russia is “capitalizing on American inaction.” To put it differently, Putin has eliminated his nightmare scenario of a Western intervention like that in Libya in 2011, and the risk of seeing his ally murdered by unruly rebels in unspeakable conditions, as Moammar Gadhafi was. Gone also is the option for the Turkish Air Force to make forays into al-Assad’s airspace, as in June 2012.

The third angle is the worldwide diplomatic dimension of the Russian takeover of sorts in Syria. Even before the military buildup is fully documented, the Russian “protectorate” of western Syria gives a tangible reality to Moscow’s concept of a new international order. Or, expressed in a Russian perspective, it puts an end to the Western propensity to unilaterally impose its own world order.

To its snap annexation of Crimea and dominance of eastern Ukraine, Russia is now adding “Assadland.” In doing so, it is showing the rest of the world that it has the capacity to redefine the international order, or at least the guts to act as spoiler in chief.

Whether ISIL is quickly defeated along the way has little importance for Russia. Moscow’s presence in western Syria will simply be used internationally, first and foremost at the forthcoming U.N. General Assembly, to prove that Russia can propose its own solutions, in this case, a “new peace plan” for Syria with none other than al-Assad at the helm.

On Sept. 28, Putin’s U.N. speech on “the joint struggle against terrorism” (as branded by TASS agency) will no doubt be seen as utterly cynical by many Western politicians. But for Putin, it will be a glorious moment. Brace for impact.

Rouhani spin: "Russia in Syria nothing to do with us" while IRGC creates coordination cell, allows overflights for Ru transport planes.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 06:49 PM

U.S. Central Command ✔ @CENTCOM
"We urge the Russians to be transparent about their activities in Syria."

"...would call into question Russia's stated intention of countering ISIL in Syria."

"...they say is the cause of their deepening work in Syria - we would look upon that with great concern."

"If the Russians were to take action against these moderate opposition - instead of the true terrorists of ISIL and Al Nusrah..."

"I will not speculate on what we would do in that instance, but suffice it to say, attacking the moderate Syrian opposition..."

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 06:54 PM

Russian Navy Slava Cls Cruiser Moskva 121 crossed Bosphorus southbound http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/25-september-russian-navy-slava-cls-cruiser-moskva-121-crossed … pic.twitter.com/Dp7osMovxt via @alperboler

davidbfpo

09-25-2015, 07:02 PM

Citing a small part of Post 568 by Outlaw09:
Remember the Chinese have also been on "piracy patrols" recently as well alongside NATO/US naval units which did not get much MSM coverage.

IIRC the activities of PLAN in the Indian Ocean, off the Somali coast, have been reported by the MSM, hence a number of posts on the Somali piracy thread and on the China emerging superpower thread.

As for the PLAN's current exercising in the Mediterranean, here are two reasons why it is easy to speculate the MSM in the UK & USA are silent:
UK Chancellor George Osborne has been praised by Chinese state media for focusing on business ahead of human rights during his visit to Xinjiang.The Global Times said he was "the first Western official in recent years who focused on business potential rather than raising a magnifying glass to the 'human rights issue'".
Mr Osborne has spent the past five days in China to boost trade links.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-34356097

China's President Xi Jinping has called for "win-win co-operation" with the US on his first state visit to Washington.Speaking on the White House lawn, he said the relationship with the US "must adapt to the changing times".
He was welcomed by President Barack Obama, who said the two nations "had an unmatched ability to shape the course of the world" if they worked together.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-34355581

davidbfpo

09-25-2015, 07:19 PM

I do wonder if the is symbolic, rather than operational. Wiki has this:
On 26 December 2012, the People's Daily reported that it would take four to five years for the Liaoning to reach full capacity, mainly due to training and coordination requirements related to this being the first operational aircraft carrier in the PLAN's possession.[43] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaoning#cite_note-43) As it is currently a training ship, Liaoning is not assigned to any of China's operational fleets.
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaoning

This unknown website shows the last sea trial was in October 2014:http://www.varyagworld.com/ Other sites, including Chinese, report exercises at sea since then.

On a quick scan of Google news search there are no reports on the ship's movements for the last month. Not even the Suez Canal transit.

What aircraft or helicopters are aboard?

Or is this a very timely training exercise?

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 07:22 PM

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/25/russia-troops-syria-could-helping-isis-report?CMP=share_btn_tw

Russian troops in Syria could end up helping Isis, report claims

Analysts say involvement ‘underlines contradictions of Kremlin’ as troops are in areas where they are likely to fight groups opposed to Isis

Julian Borger Diplomatic Editor

Friday 25 September 2015 19.25 BST Last modified on Friday 25 September 2015 19.46 BST

The deployment of Russian troops in Syria could end up helping Islamic State as they have been sent to areas where they are most likely to fight other groups opposed to Isis, according to a new report.

The Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) report comes ahead of a US-Russian summit meeting at the UN on Monday, when Barack Obama will question Vladimir Putin on the intention behind Russia’s deepening military involvement in Syria, according to US officials.

The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani – also in New York for the UN general assembly meeting – rejected suggestions that his country was operating in concert with Russia against Isis. “I do not see a coalition between Iran and Russia on fighting terrorism in Syria,” Rouhani said.

The Rusi report, titled Inherently Unresolved, assesses the global effort to counter the spread of Isis, and warns that Iraq and Syria may not survive as unitary states. It includes a section on Russian aims, particularly those underpinning Putin’s despatch this month of warplanes and troops to Tartus and Latakia in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Igor Sutyagin, a Russian strategic analyst, said there was an air regiment at Latakia with 28 planes, a battalion of motorised infantry and military engineers as well as a marine battalion at the naval base in Tartus.

The deployment, Sutyagin said, “underlines the contradictions of the Kremlin’s policy”, because the troops were in areas where Isis is not present.

“In this way, Russian troops are backing Assad in the fight against groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, which are themselves opposed to Isis. If Russian troops do eventually join combat, therefore, they would also – technically – be assisting Isis,” Sutyagin argued.

The report says the Russian deployment should not therefore be seen as a change of policy towards fighting Isis directly, but a largely political move designed to save Assad and consolidate Russia’s hold over its naval base at Tartus and its newly built air base in Latakia, while currying favour with the west and the Gulf Arab states who are themselves reluctant to fight Isis on the ground.

“Indeed, the Kremlin may well be hoping that the west will show its appreciation by lifting the sanctions imposed in response to the situation in Ukraine,” Sutyagin said.

The tensions hanging over the Obama-Putin meeting on Monday were highlighted by discord between Washington and Moscow in describing the summit. US officials said it had been requested by Putin. A Russian spokesman insisted it was Obama who asked to meet. The White House said the meeting would address both the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. The Kremlin said Ukraine would only be raised “if there was time”.

“There’s a lot of talk, and now it’s time for clarity and for Russia to come clear – come clean and come clear on just exactly how it proposes to be a constructive contributor to what is already an ongoing multi-nation coalition,” Wallander told journalists.

Putin meanwhile told CBS News: “There is no other solution to the Syrian crisis than strengthening the effective government structures and rendering them help in fighting terrorism. But at the same time, urging them to engage in positive dialogue with the rational opposition and conduct reform.”

The White House argues that the Russian strategy of entrenching Assad will only serve to deepen the roots of extremism in Syria. Ben Rhodes, a White House spokesman, said that at the UN meeting “the president will have the opportunity to make clear to President Putin that we share the determination to counter Isil [Isis], that we welcome constructive contributions to counter Isil. But at the same time, we believe that one of the principal motivating factors for people who are fighting with Isil is the Assad regime.”

The Rusi report said that it would be “perfectly feasible” to defeat Isis if Turkey and Iran were also engaged in the search for a regional solution. It advised US policymakers to “not give up on the possibility of maintaining the unity of Iraq and Syria, but not be beholden or obsessed with this idea either”.

“If the US could ‘father’ two brand-new states in the Balkans during the 1990s, there is no reason why Washington should not tolerate at least the informal emergence of new states in the Middle East,” the report argued.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 08:03 PM

I do wonder if the is symbolic, rather than operational. Wiki has this:
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaoning

This unknown website shows the last sea trial was in October 2014:http://www.varyagworld.com/ Other sites, including Chinese, report exercises at sea since then.

On a quick scan of Google news search there are no reports on the ship's movements for the last month. Not even the Suez Canal transit.

What aircraft or helicopters are aboard?

Or is this a very timely training exercise?

Believe a two fold deployment--one for training and one political showing the flag in the Med and jointly with Russia----what is more disturbing is the references to Chinese PLA troops in Syria if true.

The original commenter carrying the posting who has been reliable in the past triggered two other sources to pick up the comment---

No one has spotted the ship but there has been the report of a single Chinese ship evidently clearing the Suez and then not being seen again.

Then another three Chinese naval ships did clear and the talk now is of four Chinese ships.

Chinese Military Personnel Expected to Arrive in Syria
www.almasdarnews.com › Featured
Diese Seite übersetzenvor 2 Tagen - China-CV-16-Liaoning-aircraft-carrier-pla-navy- ... Tuesday morning, a Chinese naval vessel reportedly traveled through Egypt's Suez Canal to ...

China - SouthFront
southfront.org/category/all-articles/world/china/
Diese Seite übersetzenChina. China-CV-16-Liaoning-aircraft-carrier-pla-navy-. China 23.09.2015 ... a Chinese naval vessel reportedly traveled through Egypt's Suez Canal to enter the ...

So at least four Chinese ships are in play but not much in the way of photo coverage has shown up on the four.

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 08:05 PM

Unusual Russia airlift activity for a Friday evening since the large exercise Center 2015 has ended.

Latitude 67N SIGINT @Sigint67n

Quite busy on the RuAF transport networks this evening...

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 08:20 PM

This video shows some of the shelling in Douma, northeast Damascus. Injuries/deaths reported http://bit.ly/1ji5gwZ https://twitter.com/Millermena/status/647436311410905088 …

Russian drones flying over Idlib, now towns near MaaratAlNouman pounded by Assad airforce. Coincidence? https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/status/647491961579028480 …

Hezbollah welcomes Russian buildup in #Syria, says #US has failed - @Jerusalem_Post
http://dlvr.it/CGMYtm

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 08:21 PM

JN's Head Military Cmdr in Dar'a, Abu Salah with Cmdr Bashiq are personally involved in the latest Quneitra offensive

Regime Forces and #Hezbollah are suffering heavy losses in northern #Quneitra countryside. Situation seems very bad for them. #Syria

Syria #Damascus Regime airstrikes with several barrel-bombs on southern #Maadamiyeh suburn despite local cease-fire
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.463418&lon=36.192656&z=15&m=b …

Syria #Damascus #Assad-forces shelling #Harasta suburb with Chlorine gas

The joint Jaysh al-Fath (JN,Ahrar, etc) & FSA offensive in Quneitra main objective is opening up a path to the besieged Western Ghouta.

Syria Rebels shelling #SAA brigade 90 in #Quneitra with artillery
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.211476&lon=35.963874&z=15&m=b …

OUTLAW 09

09-25-2015, 08:59 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/26/us/politics/russia-says-putin-obama-meeting-was-american-idea.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

Who Wanted to Meet First? Russia Says It Was Obama

By PETER BAKERSEPT. 25, 2015

WASHINGTON — Who asked whom to the prom? Let’s put it this way: This date has not even started, and it is not going well.

After the White House announced on Thursday that President Obama and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would meet on Monday in New York, Mr. Obama’s press secretary, Josh Earnest, emphasized that it was Russia that had wanted the meeting. In fact, Mr. Earnest insisted, Mr. Putin was “desperate” for it.

The Kremlin testily denied that on Friday. “Statements by Josh Earnest that Putin was very interested in this meeting and repeatedly asked for it are not true,” said Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy adviser to Mr. Putin, according to the official Tass news agency.

Mr. Ushakov said the Obama administration had sent a proposal on Sept. 19 for a meeting, suggesting two possible dates, Monday or Tuesday. Moscow opted for the first, when Mr. Putin would be in New York for the United Nations General Assembly gathering.

“We do not refuse contacts that are proposed,” Mr. Ushakov said. “We support maintaining constant dialogue at the highest level.” As such, he said, the “Americans knew that if President Obama wants to hold a working meeting in New York and proposes to hold it, we will hardly refuse.”

The jockeying over who invited whom underscored the delicacy of the meeting at a time of great tension between the United States and Russia over the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.

Mr. Obama, who has refused to have a formal sit-down meeting with Mr. Putin for more than two years because of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and other disputes, does not want to look eager to see a man he has condemned. In recent weeks, some aides have expressed wariness about a meeting because they say Mr. Putin might use it to vindicate his actions and present himself as an important player in world affairs.

The Russians, despite Mr. Ushakov’s statement, have been publicly fishing for an invitation for more than a month. “If there is such a proposal from their side, I think our president will consider it constructively,” Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said on Aug. 19.

Whoever wanted the date first, it’s on for Monday. At least for now.

CrowBat

09-25-2015, 10:16 PM

And the other Chinese naval ships engaging in an Russian led naval exercise in the Med...You were talking about 'Chinese aircraft carrier' and 'Suez', and I'm telling you: that's hogwash.

Liaoning is not even anywhere near the Indian Ocean, not to talk about something like 'about to cross the Suez Canal'.

Latest I've heard about her - and that was sometimes in August - she was underway testing Prototype No. 3 of the J-15 (full serial '103').

Few weeks later, photos of the first operational J-15S (serial number 113) appeared.

And that means... drums... Liaoning has not even an air wing to embark. Everything is still in research and development, testing and work-ups...

That much about that affair...

And, regarding some sort of Chinese exercise in the Med, perhaps together with Russians too, continued with some sort of deployment of Chinese troops to Syria... I would say that it's more likely that somebody is going to paint Moon red (and Coca Cola then add its advertisment too) - and that already the next week - than such a combo to happen.

But, as they say: everybody is free to believe whatever he/she wants. So, also everybody is free to believe that Liaoning is about to pass Suez...especially followed by an armada of Chinese warships, all of whom are going to join Russians in Syria...

(EDIT... just a 'BTW', but this comes from co-author of certain handbook titled Modern Chinese Warplanes: Combat Aircraft and Units of the Chinese Air Force and Naval Aviation (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0985455403?*Version*=1&*entries*=0), assessed by certain Mr. Norman Polmar as, '...probably providing as much information as most classified materials on air orders of battle').

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 07:22 AM

Crow Bat---

You were talking about 'Chinese aircraft carrier' and 'Suez', and I'm telling you: that's hogwash.

Liaoning is not even anywhere near the Indian Ocean, not to talk about something like 'about to cross the Suez Canal'.

Latest I've heard about her - and that was sometimes in August - she was underway testing Prototype No. 3 of the J-15 (full serial '103').

Few weeks later, photos of the first operational J-15S (serial number 113) appeared.

And that means... drums... Liaoning has not even an air wing to embark. Everything is still in research and development, testing and work-ups...

That much about that affair...

And, regarding some sort of Chinese exercise in the Med, perhaps together with Russians too, continued with some sort of deployment of Chinese troops to Syria... I would say that it's more likely that somebody is going to paint Moon red (and Coca Cola then add its advertisment too) - and that already the next week - than such a combo to happen.

But, as they say: everybody is free to believe whatever he/she wants. So, also everybody is free to believe that Liaoning is about to pass Suez...especially followed by an armada of Chinese warships, all of whom are going to join Russians in Syria...

(EDIT... just a 'BTW', but this comes from co-author of certain handbook titled Modern Chinese Warplanes: Combat Aircraft and Units of the Chinese Air Force and Naval Aviation (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0985455403?*Version*=1&*entries*=0), assessed by certain Mr. Norman Polmar as, '...probably providing as much information as most classified materials on air orders of battle').

She has finished what were defined as "sea trials"----agreed that it is strange that she is reported heading to the Med--BUT the other three have been defined as two destroyers and one frigate and they did in fact enter the Suez, and Russian media is carrying them as participating in their naval exercises and THIS is the big AND--China is sensitive to global press coverage and since they sit in virtually every internal IT network at the surveillance level they would have been aware of the reports as well AND normally they would have denied.

The lack of denial is the point--there is an old saying if asked a question and silence comes back then you agree with the statement.

Chinese troops on the ground--again basically out of the pro-Assad corner BUT as Crow Bat stated where there is smoke there is at least 30% truth--ESPECIALLY since it was carried in Russian media as well.

Remember Russian media is designed for internal Russian consumption so by stating Chinese troops then Russia wants their civil society to feel and think this is a great international effort on their part by Putin the fearless leader to calm down Syria depicting Russia as this great international global power player.

So final statement on the Chinese--yes at least four ships are somewhere in the Med and or heading to it, there will be a large scale Russian naval exercises being sold as a joint exercise with the Chinese even mentioned in Peking with the Putin visit, and the comments are part and parcel of weaponization of information efforts by Assad and Putin BUT with a strong grain of truth to the comments.

Let's see just how it plays out.

Remember Crow Bat you made a number of comments here that you doubted the Russians would do this or that ie aircraft airlift etc. that with a little passage of time were in fact not only proven correct but the Russians seem to have then gone overboard on.

Remember I mentioned to you the Russian aircraft would be cruising in without transponders--how did I know that--because virtually all of the Russian Baltic and UK Russian NATO air incursion flights were made with transponders off--and many had wondered why Russia that doing that--see the connection now to their activities in Syria--Ukraine and Syria are in fact intertwined at this point. They spent the better part of a year gaining experience in the use of air control techniques in the radio silence and transponders off mode that was then used as they flew to Syria.

I will go a step further and state this Russian Syrian move was not done over night and under the cover of darkness--Russians plan, plan and the plan again--time is not a factor the plan is though--and in their system all commanders must sign the actual plan which indicates they have read it and understand it-it becomes in the Russian military then a legally binding document and if anything goes wrong then the Commander is in deep problems as he signed the document.

The visit by the IRGC commander this summer to Putin is being sold by many in the MSM as the Iranian attempt to get the Russians involved--IMHO it was just the reverse--he came in for a final briefing and approval ---not to try to convince the Russians of anything.

Just as social media picked up unusual Russian airlift operations yesterday night that have not been explained yet--social media now tends to be far better informed than even the western intel community.

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 07:34 AM

There was yesterday a vague video of a Russian surveillance aircraft was posted on social media -- initially identified as the il-20--in the meantime it was fully identified as a ll-20 surveillance plane.

Russia has deployed at least one IL-20 COOT spyplane to #Syria http://theaviationist.com/2015/09/25/il-20-deployed-to-syria/ … pic.twitter.com/CFhkU9S5e6

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 07:36 AM

They are popping up everywhere" #Russia building up Military personnel in #Iraq http://m.therightscoop.com/russia-building-up-military-personnel-in-iraq/ … pic.twitter.com/UdnOdBj2KR

Info concerning this was posted here yesterday----

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 07:40 AM

Crow Bat -----might in fact interest you about the handed over weapons to JaN by US trained Syrians.

U.S. Says Rebel It Trained Surrendered Materiel in Syria http://nyti.ms/1iRh8Ga

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 07:42 AM

New Russian Activity in #Syria:
Al-#Assad Airport and Istamo Weapon Storage Facility - ISW [1] pic.twitter.com/WRXpPXD24m

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 07:47 AM

Reports 20 Assad forces/NDF militias have been killed & over 50 wounded inc. cmdr of the Tranja Co. in the #Quneitra fighting

In all the chaos that is Syria, anyone talking/asking about the +250K people Assad has detained in the last 5 years? No

Green lighting Russian mil ops in Syria by the US military-----

Centcom warns Russia not to attack moderate Syrian rebels not affiliated with ISIS or Nusra. https://twitter.com/centcom/status/647445569632366592 … won't say what would do

CrowBat

09-26-2015, 08:29 AM

Crow Bat---

She has finished what were defined as "sea trials"...Gimme a few hours and I'll let you know where is Liaoning right now.

Remember Crow Bat you made a number of comments here that you doubted the Russians would do this or that ie aircraft airlift etc....Yeah, 'sorry' that I couldn't believe Russians would be as idiotically dumb as to go rushing 20+ combat aircraft and 20+ helicopters, 'supported' by a battalion of moto-infantry and a comms battalion... VIA IRAN, and with their transponders ON...and via southern Iraq... into a war-zone....and then in such a rush that they have to block one of two runways because there's no place to park all the planes... only to find themselves on receiving end of a rocket attack before soon... which forced them to 'disperse' their aircraft in pairs further down the same runway and 'camouflage' them with camo nets (very useful considering those huge white noses of their Su-30s and Su-24s)...

But then, yeah: why to hell care about such obsolete issues like 'logic' any more...? The White House and Pentagon gave up thinking logically, years ago: why should Kreml do anything else...?

Remember I mentioned to you the Russian aircraft would be cruising in without transponders--how did I know that--because virtually all of the Russian Baltic and UK Russian NATO air incursion flights were made with transponders off--and many had wondered why Russia that doing that--see the connection now to their activities in Syria...That's quite simple. Have you got something called _evidence_ for what you're talking about?

Nope.

Have I got evidence for what I say ('deployment via Iran and Iraq')?

Yes.

Any further discussion about this necessary?

I will go a step further and state this Russian Syrian move was not done over night and under the cover of darkness...Then you're not only contradicting facts on the ground, but yourself too.

Just as social media picked up unusual Russian airlift operations yesterday night that have not been explained yet--social media now tends to be far better informed than even the western intel community....which is an illusion, based on the fact that the social media is reporting everything it knows, while intel reports 'nothing' (at least in the public)... or only what its talkinheads think is useful for their political masters.

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 10:47 AM

Gimme a few hours and I'll let you know where is Liaoning right now.

Yeah, 'sorry' that I couldn't believe Russians would be as idiotically dumb as to go rushing 20+ combat aircraft and 20+ helicopters, 'supported' by a battalion of moto-infantry and a comms battalion... VIA IRAN, and with their transponders ON...and via southern Iraq... into a war-zone....and then in such a rush that they have to block one of two runways because there's no place to park all the planes... only to find themselves on receiving end of a rocket attack before soon... which forced them to 'disperse' their aircraft in pairs further down the same runway and 'camouflage' them with camo nets (very useful considering those huge white noses of their Su-30s and Su-24s)...

But then, yeah: why to hell care about such obsolete issues like 'logic' any more...? The White House and Pentagon gave up thinking logically, years ago: why should Kreml do anything else...?

That's quite simple. Have you got something called _evidence_ for what you're talking about?

Nope.

Have I got evidence for what I say ('deployment via Iran and Iraq')?

Yes.

Any further discussion about this necessary?

Then you're not only contradicting facts on the ground, but yourself too.

...which is an illusion, based on the fact that the social media is reporting everything it knows, while intel reports 'nothing' (at least in the public)... or only what its talkinheads think is useful for their political masters.

CB--the reference to the Russian air activity on the Russian airlift transport channels is 300% correct as it comes directly from their own comms chatter reported by a group that has indicated every Baltic RuAF combat flight at the point of take off and then a few days later confirmed by NATO and they have correctly id'd even the composition of the flights via their frequencies.

I remember you stating that a Russian airlift had to be X number of flights per hour --I indicated no as the 2-4 per day were being augmented by heavy sealift which in fact is still the case.

Iran is as deep in this move as is Russia as they share the same geo political goals end of story---
Yesterday Russian airlift via Iran was in fact confirmed and actually allowed supported by the IRGC side of the government as well as the joint combat planning center with Russia, Syria, Iraq in Baghdad.

.

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 10:50 AM

Heads up CB---Russian flight chatter ---

Alleged conversation of Russian air force pilots over #Syria's Hama province.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHV5YyDS8kU …

Can anyone confirm what they say?

Social media will have the answer in about 20 minutes---and the mainstream media does not even know it exists----

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 11:22 AM

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2015/09/26/areas-of-influence-deployment-and-tasks-are-distributed-between-russia-syrian-forces-hezbollah-and-iran/

Elijah J M | ايليا ج مغناير

Middle East Politics

Areas of influence, deployment and tasks are distributed between Russia, Syrian Forces, Hezbollah and Iran.

Original article published here:
http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2015/09/26/623237/nr/syria

Google translation:

– Iranian Special forces arrived to Damascus this week to join Russian and Hezbollah counterparts

– Areas of influence, deployment and tasks are distributed between Russia, Syrian Forces, Hezbollah and Iran.

– Russia will be incharge of Lattakia, Hama and Aleppo

– Iran will be in charge of the protection of Damascus, Daraa, Quneitra and the Golan to the Israeli borders

– Hezbollah will be deployed on the fronts with al-Qaeda and the “Islamic State” group

– Hezbollah is forming the first new armored brigade composed of 75 Tanks newly received

Damascus – from Elijah J. Magnier:

A high-ranking source in Damascus revealed “Iran and Russia are sending special combat units to take part of the war in various cities in Syria”.

“A joint military operation room has been created to divide tasks, define the area and cities of influence and deployment, and coordinate attacks and need of each force engaged on the ground between the Russian, Iranian, Syrian and those of Hezbollah Special Forces covering the entire Syrian geography. Russia will be responsible for Lattakia, Hama, and some parts of the province of Aleppo. Iran undertook to protect the capital, Damascus, and down to the Daraa, Quneitra and the Golan to the Israeli borders. Hezbollah was requested to evacuate its positions near Homs to be deployed on the fronts against al-Qaida (Jabhat al-Nusra) and the forces of the group called “the Islamic State” (ISIS). Russian missile units with 240 and 330 mm were deployed and will have the task, along with Russian air force jets to support the advance of troops on the ground (Iranians, Hezbollah and Syrian Forces”, said the source.

Already the vanguard of the Iranian special forces and specialized urban warfare units began to reach Damascus. An Iranian military plane carried 100 Iranian officers and soldiers landed this Tuesday into Damascus airport. So far Iranian experts and military advisors, along with volunteers were present on the Syrian soil. This time, it is the Iranian official decision to send regular Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) troops to take part officially of the war in Syria. This is the result of Iran IRGC – Quds Brigade Brigadier General Qassem Soleimani’s visit to Moscow this year to coordinate the support to Damascus to face the challenges and prevent the regime from collapsing.

The deployment of forces from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah along with the Syrian Army aims to recover key and strategic cities and areas under the control of al-Qaeda and ISIS in the first place. Damascus gave Hezbollah 75 tank to become part of this organisaded- irregular organization. It is the first Hezbollah armored brigade composed of new T-72 and T-55 tanks to support the group’ Special Forces on the ground.

The source ended: “The direct Russian intervention and involvement in the Syrian war was decided after Turkey’s violation of the undeclared red lines by giving facilities and supporting al-Qaida and its allies to enter Syria into Kessab and later to Idlib provoking the Russian bear who believed that national interests are threatened. The lost of Idlib upseted the battle balance in all of Syria. Russia and Iran informed Turkey that such a support will have serious consequences and that Iran and Russia’s national security have been put in jeopardy. After having seen the reaction on the ground and the direct intervention of Russia and Iran, Turkish President’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Assad could be part of the future of Syria. It is a kind of late apology for the strategic mistake that needs to be rectified now. Turkish’ wrong move in Idlib led even the United States and Europe very close from chanting:Long Live President Assad.”

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 11:29 AM

VIDEO: The Homs liberation movement fire rockets at #SAA positions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvQMhaNcgp4 … pic.twitter.com/syZ31ARoZt

Syria From battlefield at #Daraa' suburb Atman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adGMfeWqEm4 … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2kGocpoHSI …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J9oBnp3oRo …

Syria My estimate: #Assad regime dropped more than 5000 barrel bombs on #Damascus suburb #Dariya the past 2 years
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.457153&lon=36.238790&z=15&m=b …

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 11:52 AM

http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=61386

Putin’s Plan: What Will Russia Bomb in Syria?

Posted by: Aron Lund
Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to order his military into Syria may simply have been the gut reaction of a hard-power ruler who, for lack of tools other than a hammer, can imagine no problem other than a nail. But dispatching the Russian Air Force in support of the embattled Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad may also have been a true political masterstroke, in which case its political impact is likely to make a far bigger crater than any of the bombs that Putin is preparing to drop on Syria.

The first indications of a Russian military deployment in Syria leaked out in late August. It gradually became clear that something big was happening at the Basil al-Assad International Airport near Latakia in government-controlled western Syria. Not only was Assad’s army getting new weapons, it was also getting new comrades-in-arms.

According to satellite imagery reviewed by the Washington Post and The Aviationist, a specialist blog, the Russian expeditionary corps has now grown to nearly thirty Sukhoi combat aircraft. Most are SU-24 and SU-25 models that fly “low and slow” in order to take out ground targets, but there are also a few SU-30 jets—a “game changer,” according to a pilot interviewed by the Post, since this multi-role fighter could pose a serious threat to American aircraft in Syria.

Apart from the Sukhoi jets, the airport has also become home to several Mi-24 attack helicopters, transport aircraft, air defense systems, and an unknown number of remotely piloted drones. In addition, there is a small but growing ground force, although it is not clear whether it could be tasked with more than guarding the air base and surrounding areas. Russian forces have been seen embedding with Syrian forces, although it is perhaps as trainers or coordinators.

Today, Wednesday, satellite imagery also revealed two more Russian outposts. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said that American intelligence indicates that these bases are not so much the start of an additional deployment as defensive outposts serving to protect the initial air base.

Political Results

The deployment is military, but its first and perhaps most important effects are political. Israel, which occasionally attacks what it says are Hezbollah targets inside Syria, and the United States have already met with the Russians to “deconflict,” a military term for how to avoid accidents and unwanted clashes.

Israel couldn’t care less about public opinion in Syria, but for the United States, this is an embarrassing position to be in. There is already much ill will among Syrian rebels over U.S. strikes on al-Qaeda targets within the anti-Assad guerrillas. The White House may continue to insist that Bashar al-Assad must step down, but the U.S. Air Force will henceforth be sharing Syrian airspace with both Assad’s own air force—which is notorious for its unrelenting bombing of civilian neighborhoods and infrastructure—and with a Russian expeditionary corps sent to aid him. It won’t be popular with American allies.

By introducing Russian jets and air defense systems into the Syrian theatre, Putin has also created facts on the ground (or just above it) that will help forestall further action against Assad by the United States or its allies. American Syria policy is currently under scrutiny and if internal White House debates about Assad were indeed moving in the do-something direction as some claim, then Vladimir Putin has just served up a brand new counter-argument.

Whether by accident or design, the Latakia deployment will also draw attention to Vladimir Putin’s appearance before the United Nations General Assembly in late September, his first in ten years. The Russian leader has been trying to promote an international coalition against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, of which Assad would be a part. Having just thrown his gauntlet down in Latakia, Putin won’t necessarily gain a more sympathetic hearing from the world leaders assembled in New York, but they’re sure to listen very closely.

Military Results

Although the Russian intervention seems partly designed for political effect, those Sukhoi jets aren’t just going sit on a runway in Latakia for the benefit of satellite paparazzi. According to U.S. officials, Russian airstrikes in Syria are likely to begin “soon”—and as this article was being written, as-yet unconfirmed reports alleged that Russian jets were already backing a regime offensive in the Aleppo area.

Will the Russian Air Force be able to make a difference on the ground?

Yes, probably, says David A. Deptula—and he should know. A retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant-general and air warfare theoretician, Deptula planned the American bombing campaign against Saddam Hussein’s army in 1991, when the U.S. and its allies—including, at the time, Syria—liberated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. Ten years later he oversaw the air war that toppled the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

“With competent pilots and with an effective command and control process, the addition of these aircraft could prove very effective depending on the desired objectives for their use,” Deptula told the New York Times. Which begs the question, what are those objectives?

The Kremlin has couched its involvement in Syria in terms of a war against jihadi extremism. It also seeks to bring Assad out of the cold and into an international coalition against the so-called Islamic State. In other words, focusing attacks on the Islamic State seems like a given, at least initially, but there are reasons to look at other targets, too.

But where and how could Russia maximize the impact of its strikes? Let’s look at some possible scenarios for the early stages of a Russian aerial intervention.

Option One: the Islamic State in Aleppo

Continued............................

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 11:59 AM

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-Russia-China-Syria-plan-largest-war-game?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

By JOANNA PARASZCZUK

06/19/2012 15:20

'Iran, Russia, China, Syria plan 'largest' war game'

Middle East

Iranian media outlets reported on Tuesday that Iran, Russia, China and Syria are to conduct joint military exercises in Syria next month.

The semi-official Fars News outlet, which has ties to the Iranian government, cited "certain unofficial sources" in its report but did not say what those sources were.

The report appears to have originated on Arabic language Syrian media outlet ShamLife, which said the war-games were scheduled in less than a month's time.

Other Iranian media outlets, including the Revolutionary Guards-linked Mashregh News and Mehr News, which is owned by the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization, also carried the same report on Tuesday, but did not cite any Iranian official sources confirming it.

Fars admitted that there has as yet been no official announcement confirming the war-games, but cited an unnamed Syrian official had declared that a joint exercise between those four countries would be carried out "soon".

Preparations for those exercises would be carried out in the next few days, Fars quoted "informed sources" as saying, adding that the exercises would involve ground troops, air forces and naval forces.

Meanwhile, the ShamLife report said "sources" had confirmed previous leaks about the wargames, and that preparations for the military exercise were being carried out at an "accelerated pace".

According to ShamLife, China had gained Egyptian approval to allow 12 Chinese ships carrying military equipment to pass through the Suez Canal, and that these vessels would reach the Syrian ports of Tartous and Latakia in two weeks' time.

ShamLife said Syrian air defense missiles and its coastal defense would be put to the test in the military exercises, and that 90,000 troops from the four countries would be involved in the war games along with 400 aircraft and 1,000 tanks and "hundreds of rockets."

The exercises would be carried out after Syrian troops had "cleansed" several cities where "armed groups" - meaning Syrian opposition forces fighting against government troops loyal to President Bashar Assad - were gathering.

The Syrian opposition has frequently accused the Iranian regime of supporting Assad and providing his forces with material and equipment to suppress the revolution.

Meanwhile, Fars added in its report that no official sources from Syria, Russia, China or Iran had confirmed the war games would take place.

Fars also noted that in addition to the Chinese ships, Russian nuclear submarines and warships would also sail to Syria.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Russian media said Russian naval officials denied reports that its Black Sea Fleet ship, the Caesar Kunikov (BDK 64), a military landing craft home-ported in Sevastopol, had set sail for Syria.

RIA Novosti cited an unnamed Black Fleet officer as saying the Kunikov set sail for a routine test at a training base and was not headed to the Mediterranean.

According to RIA Novosti the same Fleet commander also dismissed reports in the Ukrainian and Western media reports that another Black Sea amphibious ship was headed to Syria carrying weapons and marines.

The commander said Western reports that Alligator class landing ship Nikolay Filichenkov was heading for the Syrian port of Tartous were false.

Tartous is home to a Cold War-era Russian naval supply and maintenance base, which was established in 1971 and still staffed by Russian naval personnel.

In July 2009, RIA Novosti reported that the Russian Navy planned to expand and modernize its Tartous base, the only Russian foothold in the Mediterranean.

Also on Tuesday, the BBC reported that the UK had stopped a cargo vessel off the western coast of Scotland allegedly transporting Russian-made refurbished attack helicopters to Syria. British marine insurer the Standard Club canceled cover to the MV Alaed's owners after UK security services warned that the company would breach EU sanctions if it insured a ship carrying arms to Syria, according to the UK's Daily Telegraph.

Last week, the US accused Russia of sending attack helicopters to Syria to support Assad's regime, which Russia denied.

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:04 PM

http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/25-09-2015/132137-china-0/

Chinese Navy sets off for Syria

25.09.2015 | Source: Pravda.Ru

Chinese Navy sets off for Syria. Vessel
Source: Pravda.Ru photo archive

According to the Russian Senator Igor Morozov, Beijing has taken decision to take part in combating IS and sent its vessels to the Syrian coast.

Igor Morozov, member of the Russian Federation Committee on International Affairs claimed about the beginning of the military operation by China against the IS terrorists. "It is known, that China has joined our military operation in Syria, the Chinese cruiser has already entered the Mediterranean, aircraft carrier follows it," Morozov said.

According to him, Iran may soon join the operation carried out by Russia against the IS terrorists, via Hezbollah. Thus, the Russian coalition in the region gains ground, and most reasonable step of the US would be to join it. Although the stance of Moscow and Washington on the ways of settlement of the Syrian conflict differs, nonetheless, low efficiency of the US coalition acts against terrorists is obvious. Islamists have just strengthened their positions.

As Leonid Krutakov told Pravda.Ru in an interview, the most serious conflict is currently taking place namely between China and the US. Moscow may support any party, the expert believes, and that is what will change the world order for many years.

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:05 PM

"If Assad asks, China can deploy troops to Syria," by Christina Lin's Blog:

http://toi.sr/1KXMdo0 via @timesofisrael

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:06 PM

Latakia Is Assad's Achilles Heel," Excellent by @FabriceBalanche now a fellow @WashInstitute http://washin.st/1QyNoZ9

Many Syrian refugees headed 4 Europe coming from Syr regime areas, aided by regime & Leb gov http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3246104/At-busy-Lebanese-port-Syrians-set-sights-Europe.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490 …

IS convoy reaches Deir ez Zor from Qaim to prepare 4 major offensive. Unmolested by US air power. Like Palmyra? http://all4syria.info/Archive/253773

Liwa Shuhada' al-Yarmouk: Analysis," by @ajaltamimi explains why Southern Front has stalled http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/liwa-shuhada-al-yarmouk-history-and-analysis/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:07 PM

@joshua_landis on ISIS, Ethnic Cleansing & the”Great Sorting Out“ in Mid East

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-roW5Y7vbw …

Fascinating

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:21 PM

Syrian Kurd offensive against Islamic State has stalled

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article36324726.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:23 PM

Air Force Freak @AlRFORCEFREAK

RUAF transport aviation working long hours https://twitter.com/obretix/status/647745788538408960 …

.@AlRFORCEFREAK RuAF An-124 82035 and 82040 en route to Syria again as well today

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:25 PM

USA purchased from Bulgaria 610 9K111 Fagot ATGM & 8 9K115 Metis ATGM. Likely for Syria. @MSchroeder77

http://www.janes.com/article/54773/analysis-un-document-shows-us-bought-610-fagot-missiles …

CrowBat

09-26-2015, 12:25 PM

CB--the reference to the Russian air activity on the Russian airlift transport channels is 300% correct as it comes directly from their own comms chatter reported by a group that has indicated every Baltic RuAF combat flight at the point of take off and then a few days later confirmed by NATO and they have correctly id'd even the composition of the flights via their frequencies.Wrong. RuAF flights over the Baltic have nothing to do with the way the RuAF deployed its combat aircraft to Syria.

I remember you stating that a Russian airlift had to be X number of flights per hour --I indicated no as the 2-4 per day were being augmented by heavy sealift which in fact is still the case....sigh... contrary to you, I'm ready to answer questions.

Therefore:

You're wrong here too. I nowhere said there 'must be so and so many flights' (if I did, point me at the place?).

At one point in time I did assume that some of the aircraft (especially Su-25s) were flown in on board of transports - primarily because there were a) no reports about them being flown in, and b) there is no way a Su-25 can fly from Russia to Syria without a stop in between.

This assumption was subsequently proven 'wrong' - due to very clear reports about Su-25s being flown in, but in any other fashion than as now assumed by nearly everybody in the West, namely 'in radar shadow of transport aircraft'. This simply didn't happen.

Iran is as deep in this move as is Russia as they share the same geo political goals...Would you like to say it's in Russian interest to maintain an Iranian puppet regime in Damascus, so that the IRGC would have its bridge to Hezbollah open, and so that it could continue confronting Israel...?

Then that's the essence of 'Iranian' (actually that of the IRGC, which is supposed to be 'Islamic', not 'Iranian') position in regards of Syria.

Yesterday Russian airlift via Iran was in fact confirmed and actually allowed supported by the IRGC side of the government as well as the joint combat planning center with Russia, Syria, Iraq in Baghdad.Source? Evidence?

...and 'wrong' again. For multiple reasons.

1.) If 'they' (whoever it should have been) have 'confirmed' i.e. 'actually allowed' this _yesterday_, then your 'IRGC side of the government' is nearly a week too late...

2.) But, there is no 'IRGC side of the government' in Tehran. Since the IRGC-Ministery was integrated into the Ministry of Defence (already back under President Khatami, back in the 1990s), the IRGC is represented in the Iranian government only through 1 position in the MOD.

It can be said that the IRGC has more influence in the National Security Council in Tehran, then it has got more members there. But, while including a specific number of members of the government/cabinett, the NSC is no 'government' (nor even its representative): it's a board with advisory function in regards of defence-related issues.

3.) On the contrary - and much more importantly - the IRGC has a direct link to the 'Supreme Leader' at 'personal/first hand' level (via Vahid) which means it must not care about the government, NSC or anybody else in Tehran (except Khamenei) the least.

4.) ...and, contrary to the IRIAS (regular military), the IRGC has an 'overseas' function ('exporting/spreading Islamic revolution'). That's why when it comes to Syria, it's the CO IRGC-QF that's travelling to Moscow, and not anybody from the 'government' (i.e. its Foreign Ministry).

Which means that your theory about 'IRGC side of the government' is... well, sorry, but hogwash.

5.) However, the IRGC's link to Khamenei is useless for such issues like Russian overflights, simply because the IRGC does not control the three crucial authorities responsible for a) granting rights for somebody's combat aircraft to pass Iranian airspace, and b) the air defence of Iranian airspace. Former is responsibility of the Foreign Ministry in Tehran ('government', but no 'IRGC side' of the same), latter that of the IRIAF and the IRIADF, both of which are parts of the regular military, responsible to the MOD, and thus the 'government' (but not to the IRGC)...

6.) This is even more important considering the fact that a) all RuAF aircraft deployed to Syria via Iran were escorted by IRIAF interceptors (exactly in same fashion like this is done in any other country), and b) those RuAF aircraft that lack the necessary range or IFR-capability, were refuelled at a certain IRIAF - repeat: IRIAF - and not on any IRGCASF air base.

In summary, and from my POV, what you or your sources are claiming here, simply makes no sense. At least it bears no relation to reality (certainly not to the way decision-making processes in Tehran are run).

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:32 PM

Crow Bat--finally nice to see confirmation of the Russian airlift surge in progress--hourly arrivals as you indicated are so out with the An-124 doing shuttle service coupled with a massive sealift that has been running since later 2013.

So the average of 2-4 AN-124s per day constitutes a Russian airlift in the 21st century.

Russia keeps buildup in Syria going, 15 straight days of transport flights https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Sep-26/316625-russia-keeps-up-buildup-at-syria-airbase.ashx …

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:38 PM

Russians started to seek Volunteers in Donbas to be send to fight in Syria

pic.twitter.com/1hgAqla1He

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 12:42 PM

Petraeus: Russia’s military escalation in Syria is further reminder that, when the U.S. does not take the initiative, others fill the vacuum

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 01:34 PM

BREAKING: #Iraq doesn't allow #Russia|n AF Il-76 to enter its airspace, plane returns to #Mozdok. -

Will be interesting to see if Iraq stands by it's refusal--they waffled before.

http://mil-avia.livejournal.com/121524.html

For those versed in Russian here is the link for the entire ATC voice exchange process of the IL76 being rejected and told to turn back also depicts how they change the RUAF flight numbers for entering Syria.

http://mil-avia.livejournal.com/121524.html

CrowBat

09-26-2015, 01:42 PM

Crow Bat--finally nice to see confirmation of the Russian airlift surge in progress...what 'surge' in progress'?

Where did I say that? Shall I consider this an attempt to produce sensations from what I post?

There were several 'group overflights' in period 18-21 September. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's 5 days ago, at least. Ever since, nothing of that. 'Top day' was two days ago, with 2 overflights. One in direction of Syria, another back in direction of Armenia etc. Yesterday the same again...

If you're ah so damn concerned about this, then why not about the fact that most of these flights passed the Georgian airspace - without any kind of permission from local authorities. The GeAF is in no position to at least 'inspect' them...

Also, Liaoning is in her homeport (Qingdao) since 24 September. Most of crew is on leave for the approaching national day (1 October).

Production of the planned fighter-jet for this carrier, J-15S (Block 02), started only months ago. BTW, the serial of the first series-manufactured example I've mentioned above proved 'wrong', sort of: this is the last out of 14 prototypes (serials 100-113). The actual first series-manufactured example didn't fly yet.

So, as said, that with 'Chinese aircraft carrier about to pass the Suez' is simply hogwash.

That much about your social media...

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 01:44 PM

Russians are setting up a comms center in the Israeli AF HDQ in order to deconflict Israeli AF and Russian troops.

Moscow set up communication center at HDQ of #Israel|i AF to coordinate actions with #Russia|n troops in #Syria - http://lenta.ru/news/2015/09/21/taki_net_chtob_da/ …

CrowBat

09-26-2015, 01:49 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:02 PM

The Aviationist @TheAviationist

Syrian Mig-29 Fulcrums escorted the 28 Russian jets that deployed to Latakia hiding under cargo planes... http://fb.me/1XedjqL9l

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:17 PM

Talking about 'social media': here an example of puting it to some good use.

Photo below is showing the J-15 prototype '113'. It was taken yesterday - in China.

How comes, if the aircraft carrier for which this type is undergoing R+D is expected to pass the Suez Canal...?

AND the four other confirmed Chinese naval ships that are underway currently and the joint Russian/Chinese naval maneuver???--what you are still not understanding is that regardless of the carrier all the other information has until now not be disproved and one carrier comment is being carried by the leading US specialist on Syria who has been watching Chinese approaches in the ME for a long number of years.

Sometimes in the world of Russian/Chinese masking ops --you feed a distractor and all look at that direction while the main effort is somewhere else.

Like the Chinese building a formal land based aircraft carrier on a reef in the middle of the South China Sea and claiming it is not an airport but aircraft are flying from it--ALL the while claiming it is not an airfield.

So again confirm or deny the Chinese participation in the upcoming Russian naval exercise in the Med and we can get on with the discussion ie why you think there is no Russian military surge into Syria via Russian airlift and sealift??

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:20 PM

...what 'surge' in progress'?

Where did I say that? Shall I consider this an attempt to produce sensations from what I post?

There were several 'group overflights' in period 18-21 September. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's 5 days ago, at least. Ever since, nothing of that. 'Top day' was two days ago, with 2 overflights. One in direction of Syria, another back in direction of Armenia etc. Yesterday the same again...

If you're ah so damn concerned about this, then why not about the fact that most of these flights passed the Georgian airspace - without any kind of permission from local authorities. The GeAF is in no position to at least 'inspect' them...

Also, Liaoning is in her homeport (Qingdao) since 24 September. Most of crew is on leave for the approaching national day (1 October).

Production of the planned fighter-jet for this carrier, J-15S (Block 02), started only months ago. BTW, the serial of the first series-manufactured example I've mentioned above proved 'wrong', sort of: this is the last out of 14 prototypes (serials 100-113). The actual first series-manufactured example didn't fly yet.

So, as said, that with 'Chinese aircraft carrier about to pass the Suez' is simply hogwash.

That much about your social media...

Where did you get just five days?---I was already at 16--here they state 15--so again confirm your only five days?????

Russia keeps buildup in Syria going, 15 straight days of transport flights https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...a-airbase.ashx …

Would suggest highly that you do your recount starting fro about 17 days ago when the first single flights started popping up.

BREAKING: #Iraq doesn't allow #Russia|n AF Il-76 to enter its airspace, plane returns to #Mozdok. -

http://mil-avia.livejournal.com/121524.html

For those versed in Russian here is the link for the entire ATC voice exchange process of the IL76 being rejected and told to turn back also depicts how they change the RUAF flight numbers for entering Syria.

http://mil-avia.livejournal.com/121524.html

I could go on and on ---if you would dig a little bit on social media with specific groups you can even find the flight frequencies being used by the AN-124s if you would work a little harder.

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:29 PM

CB--social media --social media--or did you see this released by MSM----??

الدين @d08adeea5ef1431

First pictures reportedly showing Russian troops this time not arriving but leaving Syria
This isn't Ukraine Mr Putin

pic.twitter.com/1aKlwjlJxb

Russian troll response to this posting----
@d08adeea5ef1431 @mustaqueem_1 The point is that one Russian soldier died of food poisoning from Arab #### grub but killed 50 Isis b4 dinner

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:32 PM

More Shia militia in Europe--claiming refugee status--

Ahmad al-Shar', Judge for Iranian backed Asa'b Ahl al-Haqq in Basrah, send his regards from #Austria

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:38 PM

Some US officials have said that the IS must be hurting as their online info war activities have been dropping off----appears that it is a deliberate blackout in progress.

State of Islam is --> al-Hayat Media
He has many Acc&many faces & Does not respect the Media Blackout. Beware of him!

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:56 PM

Press TV ‏@PressTV · Sep 23
Syria deploys Russia drones against Daesh for first time: Source http://ptv.io/1xYD
commercial photo of the Russian drone being used

PHOTOS: Those Russian-supplied Su-24 and Su-25 attack aircraft at #Latakia are in Syrian colors and markings:

Latest update as regards Su-24/25 colors. It seems Su-25s could be under camo netting (@KURYERSAT). As for the Su-24?

Same sources indicate the jets were crewed by Syrian pilots on delivery from Russia. Su-24/25s new procured and/or refurbished in Russia.

Situation as regards warplanes in #Syria becomes more complex: reports now that the Su-24s and Su-25s (at least) have received SyAAF colors.

These are de four #Su30SM #Russia sent to #Syria #Latakia http://wp.me/p2M3ts-nCv r

UAV "Orlan" Idlib, Syria via @FPaidinfull

It seems that two Russian (GRU) Ilyushin Il-20 SIGINT aircraft arrived at Latakia, Syria in the last two days.

One sighted yday over Idlib but didn't seem 2 have a ventral pod. Looks like Il-22 command post

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 02:58 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 03:07 PM

Maybe someone needs to tell Putin he cannot win in Syria??????

RussianEmbassyCanada Verified account 
‏@RussianEmbassyC Is Pentagon aware there's no military solution to #ISIS? Is Ukraine trolling its sponsor?
http://on.fb.me/1MOAVCS

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 03:11 PM

Crow Bat--and even more sea lift is coming inbound----

ВМФ LST Saratov packed to the gunnels with military equipment en route to #Syria pic.twitter.com/KF5kDtIWU6

Saratov 150’s upper deck is full of container boxes. Alligator class landing ship also has a lower tank deck #Syria pic.twitter.com/hbWZGzjCJq

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 03:15 PM

Crow Bat--AND that joint exercise being called a war games exercise --

Missile cruiser Moskva enters Mediterranean to take part in war games
http://tass.ru/en/defense/823795 …
pic.twitter.com/eGQ36T8Xxp

She cleared Turkey two days ago----

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 03:18 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 03:37 PM

Foreign Policy ✔ @ForeignPolicy
Russia’s game plan in Syria maybe be as simple as filling the vacuum America’s left behind, writes @juliaioffe http://atfp.co/1iAN8h6

As long as policymakers mistakenly see Syrian rebel groups as proxies, they will fail to devise realistic diplomatic approaches.

Note how in all the discussions about diplomacy over Syria, one set of actors is absent: the various rebel groups. They won't stop fighting

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 05:02 PM

Local activist reports death of 20 regime troops in Russian airstrike by mistake during fight with ISIS near Safira

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 05:18 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 05:32 PM

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/09/26/reversing-course-with-putin/

A Failed Approach

Reversing Course with Putin

Kenneth R. Weinstein & Peter Rough

President Obama got elected promising to always engage with implacable foes of the United States. Putin, for one, has taken advantage of Obama’s outreach every single time.

On Thursday, the White House announced that President Obama would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. For the past year, President Obama shunned the Russian strongman in an attempt to isolate him over the Russian occupation of Ukraine. What caused the president to reverse course and agree to a tête-à-tête? Obama’s decision was taken in the shadow of a significant Russian military buildup in support of the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria. By deploying Russian troops, Putin appears to have gotten what he coveted—an opening out of isolation.

Six years into the Obama presidency, the American concession in granting the Obama-Putin meeting is the latest in a long list of Kremlin victories. But the lopsided scorecard of U.S.-Russian relations during the Obama years is no coincidence. It can be explained by a fundamental flaw in President Obama’s worldview, one which Putin has repeatedly exploited: the idea that engaging rather than confronting hostile regimes incentivizes them to improve their behavior.

This mindset predates Obama’s presidency. During his first presidential campaign, Obama proposed presidential meetings with even America’s most implacable enemies, as if American foot-dragging was a principal source of global problems. It would be “ridiculous” and “a disgrace,” then-Senator Obama argued, for the United States to refuse to meet our enemies on their terms. With a few carefully placed concessions, so his thinking went, an Obama administration would catalyze international cooperation and transform relationships by reassuring adversaries of our benevolence.

The hard realities of power politics, including the temptation to use force in places like Syria, would fade as the mesmerizing attraction of engagement took hold. An era of American paranoia would be replaced by a new period of global cooperation.

Tests of this theory with Russia have repeatedly produced less than encouraging results, however. Just a few months into his first term, in April 2009 during a visit to Prague, President Obama argued that the U.S. has “a moral responsibility to act” for the elimination of nuclear weapons because it is “the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon.” Shortly thereafter, the administration negotiated an arms control agreement with Russia that required only American reductions in nuclear warheads and strategic launchers. Today, Russia issues nuclear threats and continues to violate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

Similarly, in September 2009, the Obama administration canceled missile defense installations in Eastern Europe as part of its much heralded reset with the Kremlin. Less than a year later, in May 2010, the president certified that the Russian invasion of Georgia “need no longer be considered an obstacle” to nuclear cooperation with Moscow. Four years after that? Russian troops invaded Ukraine and Moscow annexed Crimea. (Russian troops remain deployed across large parts of Georgia, creeping forward by the day.)
In each instance, Obama has wagered the prestige, resources, and moral authority of the U.S. government on the hope that he can personally bend the arc of history.

Time after time, Putin has preyed on Obama’s goodwill, and cleaned his clock.

Time after time, Putin has preyed on Obama’s goodwill, and cleaned his clock. Indeed, beneath all the resets and rhetoric is a fundamental truth: what matter is not just the intentions of the president; the calculations of our competitors and enemies matter, too—and must be taken seriously.

The implications are especially bleak for the Middle East. Obama’s commitment to ending the Iraq war helped propel him—perhaps more than any other issue—to the presidency. And his recoil from the assertion of American power and influence has only persisted. Last year, the president dismissed the need for a residual force in Iraq as “bogus” and “wrong” and declared himself undisturbed by the situation in Iraq’s neighbor to the west: “I am not haunted by my decision not to engage in another Middle Eastern war [in Syria].”

Instead, he has channeled his energies toward negotiating the Iran nuclear accord, which facilitates Iran’s breakout from international sanctions in the hopes of moderating Iranian behavior.

Today, U.S. influence in the Muslim world is at its nadir, not least because the American commitment to the moderate opposition in Syria is the laughingstock of the region, having produced only a handful of fighters. In London last week, Secretary of State John Kerry continued the charade, assuring the world that “we’re not being doctrinaire” on the timing of Assad’s departure—just the opposite, he promised, “we’re open” to “whatever.” By contrast, in conjunction with his Iranian partners, Putin has moved with alacrity and speed to deploy his forces, fill the vacuum, and shore up Assad—in Latakia, the ancestral homeland of the Assad regime, the latest reports are of up to 2,000 Russian troops on the scene, equipped with advanced fighter jets and anti-aircraft systems.

This sets up a major showdown in New York on Monday. In Syria, Putin is altering the facts on the ground. Meanwhile, President Obama envisions a grand diplomatic settlement that results in Assad’s departure.

If history is any guide, Obama is about to have his clock cleaned, yet again.

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 05:54 PM

Looks like #Russia's big Mi-6 helicopter (side wings) dropped barrel bombs on #Syria'n town
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvbc6AVfWbE …

Syria From battlefield in #Homs suburb al-Waer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9L6GhgPRbFk …

Syria #Idlib Regime airstrikes on ICARDA area
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.010228&lon=36.942215&z=13&m=b …

Syria #Daraa New rebel special forces?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBhbZuNKrTY …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.632436&lon=36.225786&z=14&m=b …

Seems #Syria'n goverment or #Russia bombing deal btw Jaish al-Fatah & #Iran/#Hezbollah
Airstrike on #Saraqib /#Idlib
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYOD_E0yMvo …

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 05:55 PM

Obama and Putin should take notice------

This is your transitional partner. A man who targets children at a playground.

Videos from Waar, Homs today after the regime shelled a playground.

http://youtu.be/IG6Lvn9qGBA
http://youtu.be/JgoykX_Kk0w
http://youtu.be/AitI0FPJuoE

20 civilians (mostly children) were killed after the regime shelled a playground besieged Waar district, Homs. #Syria pic.twitter.com/JGQnvJordS

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 05:56 PM

Russian jets recon Idlib, airstrikes today violate ceasefire. Protests erupt #Syria

Friendly fire gets deadly for Assad---
Local activist reports death of 20 regime troops in Russian airstrike by mistake during fight with ISIS near Safira

Reports Assad jets are bombing Jbata al-Khashab & Tranja in #Quneitra with cluster bombs. #Syria

Assad furious with losses in #Quneitra; Jubata al-Khashab, Amal fields, Ofania & Tranja under heavy regime rocket fire & artillery shelling

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 06:07 PM

Crow Bat --for that non existent Chinese carrier it is now getting media take up.

Global Defense Journal.

6 hrs · Edited ·
.

New Flash: Are the Chinese about to join the fight against ISIS in Syria?

According to several sources, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning-CV-16 has docked at the Syrian port of Tartus, accompanied by a guided missile cruiser. The carrier was without its planes. Some analysts think the planes could follow up sometimes in November, transiting through Iran. Furthermore, Russian officers were spotted in Baghdad, Iraq, which could indicate the Russian action will not be restricted to Syria. Analysts predict Russian forces could target insurgents from the Russian federation (Chechnya, Caucasus ) in both Iraq and Syria, as the Kremlin does not wish to see battle hardened rebels making their way back home to the Caucasus. In the same way, China could be tempted to join the fight in the Middle East to seek and destroy Uighur fighters who have joined ISIS, eliminating them before they make it back home to the Chinese northern province of Xinjiang.

According to several sources, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning-CV-16 has docked at the Syrian port of Tartus, accompanied by a guided missile cruiser.

....The carrier was without its planes. Some analysts think the planes could follow up sometimes in November,....
transiting through Iran

Sources are claiming it transitioned the Suez on 22 Sept with the cruiser

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 06:37 PM

Remember when #Putin said a #UN resolution was needed to intervene in #Syria? That fig leaf of "legality" fell off.

pic.twitter.com/G2F1dOw3ee

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 06:47 PM

New Iranian drone---

the second time we are seeing a Shahed-123 with an underbelly radar pic.twitter.com/pWTYEmz9SP

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 07:00 PM

Humor------

Russian sailors take a cooling break in #Syria. Thank #Putin for arranging their latest holiday.

pic.twitter.com/7lwKFRUJ2p

President #Putin prepares his speach to the #UN General Assembly to a group of #Duma deputies. pic.twitter.com/Ax69VVLFC4

Russia to re-open 1918 #Romanov murder case after #Yarosh card found at crime scene. pic.twitter.com/MvTVtjPPfa

National Geographic 2015 #photocontest winner is a pic of rare migrating gopniks resting on a riverbank in #Russia pic.twitter.com/nZJMewB4Q6

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 09:51 PM

News
The #Assad air force dropped not less than 10 barrel bombs on #Talbisah today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsAUeqT2b6w …
pic.twitter.com/0AXZvCWLwj

Putin calls Saudi King today to discuss Syria http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50378 …

Seems the #Syria|n regime today showed that they disrespect citizens in Fu'ah and #Nasrallah who looks like an idiot. pic.twitter.com/P0moHGSKeU

Source: Jaish al-Fateh has intensively shelled Foua in retaliation for the regime's shelling of Taftanaz; "no end to the deal was declared".

Analysis #Map
Hell cannon fire from rebel-held #Salma at #Assad-held #Dorien in #Latakia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeqZfNmnuVM … pic.twitter.com/VEd41p3O0G

Footage
Syrian rebel group "Ansar al-Sham" fights #Assad regime forces in #Latakia province
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E10DmpVNrwU … pic.twitter.com/bRTpYQ6pmf

The big Iran-Jaysh al-Fateh deal that was going to keep Russia from bombing Idlib? Yeah, not so much. https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/645673534019235840 …

Syria Reports that Jabath al-Nusra canceled truce with regime for #FuahKafraya-#Zabadani after airstrikes on #Taftanaz near #Idlib cityI mean, this was the WH "strategy" . US steps away from the ME, others step up to fill the void. In that respect, it's a marked success.

Russia and Iran used hard power to force the West to drop the pretense of opposing Assad. They won: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/26/australia-set-to-abandon-opposition-to-assad-as-part-of-syria-settlement …

Supreme Leader Revives Feared Intelligence Unit Of Iran's IRGC http://www.rferl.mobi/a/27265226.html

Syria #Idlib Ahrar al Sham declare now shelling #FuahKafraya with elephant-rockets after truce breaking by regime

Footage
An #Assad regime soldier in #Aleppo defects to the #FreeSyrianArmy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7aUD6eAdm0 …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/W7fh1lrlfv

Syrians are circulating this video about the Russian army https://www.facebook.com/ThaerHomsyHoor/videos/171364689866800/ … "the Syrian army's older brother"

Russia's latest project. Clearly more Russian speakers in need of assistance.
via @peterpomeranzev pic.twitter.com/VlcNe6EkFQ

OUTLAW 09

09-26-2015, 10:11 PM

Syria: VIDEO: An Mil Mi-24 over Northern #Quneitra. 9-25-15

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqG8vArzz4M …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 07:40 AM

Crow bat--notice how social media maneuvered Putin/Russia--even MSM has not fully covered this now so called "coordination cell".

Social media broke the story and stayed on ti and now Russia is reacting to it----

Let's see even the Iranian and IRGC media claimed this---

Kremlin denies foreign media reports on Russian army presence in Baghdad
http://tass.ru/en/politics/823772 …

NOW Russia backtracks and claims this-----difference is that now supposedly is a "coordination cell"

NOW we are back to the original social media report that it is in fact an intel sharing/planning center WHEN the Iraqi's flipped. OR did Russian apply pressure because of their arms shipments and Iranian pressure??

Iraq reaches deal to share intelligence with Russia, Iran and Syria in fight against ISIS, Iraqi military says. http://cnn.it/1JwqyvE

INTERESTING will be --will US intel be "shared" with the Russian GRU as that reflects "means and methods" ie technology????????

CrowBat

09-27-2015, 07:58 AM

Where did you get just five days?---I was already at 16--here they state 15--so again confirm your only five days?????Ah I see: you don't understand what you read.

Was already worried it's on me...

...if you would dig a little bit on social media with specific groups......and if you would stop pretending to read my mind or know what or how much I'm doing...?

(But nah, I do not ask you to stop pretending you know what's going from all the bombastic reports in 'social media': everybody needs his/her illusions.)

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 08:11 AM

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.677692

As always Israel has a good take on Russian activities---more so than the US currently does---

Syria and Iran Taken Hostage by Putin's Geopolitical Goals

Moscow and Tehran are considered as allies in the fight to keep Assad in power, but Russia's decision to play a larger role in Syria could end up being at Iran's expense.

Anshel Pfeffer Sep 27, 2015 1:36 AM

On the face of it, the remarks made by Iranian President Hassan Rohani during a meeting with senior editors from media organizations on Friday should not have come as a surprise. "I do not see a coalition between Iran and Russia on fighting terrorism in Syria," he said, seemingly contradicting a flurry of reports in recent weeks that Moscow and Tehran were tightly coordinated over the deployment of Russian forces in Latakia, Syria. After Rohani's unclear statements, Putin's laconic affirmative to the question posed to him by interviewer Charlie Rose whether his country sent its troops to prevent Bashar Assad's downfall ("You're right," Putin replied), was nearly refreshing in its simplicity.

We can't, of course, accept Putin's and Rohani's statements at face value. However, they do show that, despite reports of Iran's Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani's visit to Moscow and the Fox News report on Friday that Russia and Iran are coordinating actions in Syria from Baghdad, reports by Western journalists stationed in Tehran and Damascus, that Russia's latest maneuvers "surprised"
the Iranian leadership and weren't to its liking, were fairly reliable.

So far, Russia and Iran were considered to be allies, sharing the common goal of keeping Assad in power. Both supplied arms, lines of credit and military advice to the Syrian regime, with Russia also putting up a diplomatic umbrella by using its UN Security Council veto to prevent anti-Assad resolutions. Iran, through Hezbollah and other Shi'ite militias, supplied manpower to replenish the Syrian army's thinning ranks. The abrupt entry of the Russian expeditionary force has tilted the scales in the Assad coalition: Russia turned from a distant supporter to an active participant on the ground, becoming overnight a much more influential factor, in a way which made her different interest in the survival of the Damascus regime plainly evident.

For the leaders of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, keeping Syria on the Shi'ite axis as a link to their proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, was almost an existential need. Without Syria, Iran's regional influence and its ability to control what is happening in Lebanon – to direct, arm and maintain Hezbollah as a central force – would have been crippled. For Putin, however, leaving Assad to his fate would have, at worst, lost the Kremlin some of its prestige. The Russian president's decision to take a chance and invest resources in Syria after all was primarily driven by a desire to take advantage of the vacuum created by U.S. inaction in the Middle East. Putin seeks to create leverage that would allow Russia to regain the place it lost in the international arena in the wake of last year's invasion of Ukraine. Syria, Assad and Iran's interests have now become hostages to Putin's geopolitical goals.

The Russian president could decide, for example, as he apparently already agreed to at his meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, to coordinate his steps with Israel as well and to permit the Israeli air force to continue to fly over Syria and attack Hezbollah weapon convoys (as foreign reports claim Israel has already done in recent years). With the consent of Europe and the United States, he could force elections on Assad as well as cooperation with members of the opposition, including those who oppose Iranian involvement in Syria. Putin could decide that it would be better for Russia to involve Iran’s Sunni rivals – Saudi Arabia and Egypt – in a future solution to the civil war. Moreover, at any stage, he could also decide to bring the Russian forces home with their gear.
Unlike Russia’s support for separatists in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, there is no Russian national yearning for Syrian land in Aleppo and Homs province. In the event of a deal in which Russia would receive Western recognition for a portion of its aspirations in former Soviet areas in return for cooperation in finding a long-term solution in Syria that might stop the flow of refugees to Europe, and maybe even allow their return home, Putin would not hesitate to abandon the Iranians.
Another angle in the relationship between Russia and Iran can be currently seen through the eyes of the masses of Syrian refugees flooding European highways. Among them are a considerable number of citizens who are actually from areas and population groups that support Assad. They recount that they decided to leave because they came to the conclusion that even if the Assad regime survives, it will only be as an Iranian satellite - an alternative that in their view, as secular Syrians, is not much more appealing than being ruled by Islamic State.
The entry of Russia into the region raises the prospect that areas in Syria that remain under the Assad's control, or anyone who would replace him, could actually end up under Russian influence, rather than an Iranian Shi’ite province. In Western eyes, that may not be such a great deal, but for many Syrians, it would be a lot preferable than the other options.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 08:15 AM

Well if one wanted further proof that the Us and Europe are all over the map with their Syria policies---first it was Assad is the problem and must go, then Obama/Kerry signal well he can stay for a transitional period and then Australia kicks in their support for this as well as does Merkel---THEN the French sheer out again with this.

OR maybe the French awoke to the Putin plan that Obama does not see at all?

France's Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius says Assad cannot be part of Syria's future - @Reuters via @Breaking

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 08:23 AM

CrowBat

09-27-2015, 08:25 AM

Crow Bat --for that non existent Chinese carrier it is now getting media take up.

Global Defense Journal.
Origins for all the related bull#### is the same: this nonsense by DEBKA (http://www.debka.com/article/24909/A-Chinese-aircraft-carrier-docks-at-Tartus-to-support-Russian-Iranian-military-buildup).

Enough said.

But of course, since it was posted on the internet, 'it must be truth'. Fine. Then here you have few additional examples of idiots trusting such nonsense:
http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/25-09-2015/132137-china-0/

http://www.infowars.com/chinese-aircraft-carrier-reportedly-docks-at-tartus-syria/

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 08:31 AM

Ah I see: you don't understand what you read.

Was already worried it's on me...

...and if you would stop pretending to read my mind or know what or how much I'm doing...?

(But nah, I do not ask you to stop pretending you know what's going from all the bombastic reports in 'social media': everybody needs his/her illusions.)

Again your were wrong and yet claim otherwise--right CB.

You were wrong on the Russian airlifts not being a surge, you were wrong on the actual Russian aircraft counts and you did not accept transponders being off as the reason they were not seen and you deny that in fact there is a substantial airlift in progress for at least 15 days actually by my count for going on via Russian masking operations four weeks.

Was it not you that posted "hey a real Russian effort is X number of planes per hour taken for the 1990s data"--NOT looking at the current Russian doctrine and airlift abilities of the AN-124s with Iranian assistance.

You did state that right?

AND now you missed the camouflaging shift with the so called Russian aircraft to Syria AF colors---and on and on.

So really just what are you contributing other than one sided chatter on the so called knowledge of the Syrian/Iranian forces??

Show us something else for a change---other than negative comments on anyone else.

If you are such a thorough expert on Syrian military and Iranian military--then answer the following;

1. where and when did the actual Russian surge start--and remember you stated there was no surge because why--the Russians based on 1990s data had to fly how many flights per hour--indicators say for actually the last four weeks as they were being run under "masking operations'

2. are in fact the Syrian bombings and barrel bombs flights being command and controlled via Iran-is meaning are the Syrians simply just say dropping bombs on anything that moves in areas not under their control OR are they receiving specific Iranian intel and targets--OR better yet from the existing Russian GRU intel centers

3. where have the Russian GRU Spetsnaz teams been fighting by town and battle--and they have been heavily involved for now over four weeks--is the estimated and reported 12 KIAs from these teams

4. is the number of actual Russian support personnel ie soldiers, contractors, volunteers and yes visitors in the 20K range as reported by the Iranian media and those exact Iranian media reports have been accepted by the Israeli media outlet Haaretz as factual

5. has in fact the newly arrived so called Russian fighter aircraft been repainted into Syrian AF camouflage--so the question flown by Russian and or Syrian pilots

6. if in fact the Russian GRU COOTs have arrived which they have where are they being based---

7. are the new Russian drones completely under Russian control or have they been passed to the Syrian army OR are they still under GRU control

8. are the reports of chemical ie chlorine barrel bombs accurate if so where are they being used

9. are the numerous reports of direct air strikes on civilians accurate is so where did they occur

10. Iranian intentions--are they the Russian proxy OR is Russia a proxy for Iran--that is an interesting question to address

11. is the Russian expansion on the naval side a forever game changer in the Med---

12. what support has Assad, Russia and Iran given IS since 2012---I am talking about these three players and no one else

This list good go on forever---

Then you can effectively use your claimed knowledge to deny and or confirm the running social media reporting as there is virtually no reporter left alive that can report from the forward areas or from the battles themselves without getting killed by Assad forces or the Islamists or kidnapped for ransom by either.

So contribute--anyone can produce chatter as do the Russian Internet Trolls working the eastern Ukraine info war efforts.

BTW you do realize that much of the social media I post here actually attempts to address the list above--right? Actually in the time that you comment a large number of the social media comments have been verified by MSM and or government sources

Will give you a challenge--I post key social media reporting especially around Russian activities and ground fighting--you contribute a deny or confirm-- if a deny then why--any confirm we will accept as valid.

That my friend is a conversation not chatter----

CrowBat

09-27-2015, 09:34 AM

Yeah. I'm 'wrong' and you're right' - all the way, and because you don't understand what you read, and prefer to troll illusions.

We'll discuss the rest on the foredeck of Liaoning, in Tartous, tomorrow in the morning. :D

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:05 AM

Syria Express is sill rolling onward and southward ------

BSF LSTM Nikolai Filchenkov 152's deck is covered with camouflage tarp during her Bosphorus transit @EricSchmittNYT pic.twitter.com/raVE78XBOj

Both ships carry estimated 450 or so tons--but with the extra cargo probably in the 600 ton ranges. These two alone per round trip max 1200 tons.

This is their second round trip thus 2400 tons and they are not the only cargo haulers working the Syrian Express.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:10 AM

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russian-involvement-in-syria-is-part-of-larger-kremlin-strategy-to-project-power-in-europe-and-the-middle-east#.Vge8AfUVl80.twitter

September 22, 2015

Russian Involvement in Syria is Part of Larger Kremlin Strategy to Project Power in Europe and the Middle East

By Stephen Blank

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Putin’s home outside Moscow on September 21. Netanyahu told Putin that his government worries that Iran and its allies might seek to open a new front against Israel from within Syria. The prime minister said that they had agreed to coordinate measures to prevent miscalculations that could prevent a larger war. Credit: Kremlin.ru

Predictably, Russian President Vladimir Putin's intervention in Syria surprised the West. While it seems we've now figured out Putin's objectives there, how they fit into Russia's larger strategy still remains obscure. But we must begin to address that larger strategy even if the analysis remains incomplete.

Besides sustaining Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as long as possible, this intervention builds on Russia's long-term effort to project enduring naval and air power in Europe, not just the Middle East. Moscow has long sought naval bases in Cyprus and Montenegro.

Russia's military escalation in Syria confirms and extends the strategic significance for Moscow of owning virtually the entire Black Sea and using it as a base to project power, maintain strategic influence, and enforce gunboat diplomacy throughout the Balkans and the Levant through a combination of arms and amphibious operations abroad.

Moscow is also trying to create a coalition—if not a bloc—of pro-Russian Shiite or anti-Sunni Alawite states with which to confront the United States and its allies. This bloc aims to force Washington to acknowledge Russia as an equal player there and give it veto power over United States and allied Middle East policies. It is no accident that this coalition of Iran, Iraq, and Syria perfectly conforms to the rejectionist front against the 1979 Camp David Accords, the Soviet Union's last major Middle Eastern initiative.

The partnership that Moscow is cementing with Iran in the face of Washington's nuclear deal aims to extend the concept of a frozen conflict familiar to us from Eurasia to the Middle East. Russia's current policy of building bases and housing for thousands of troops represents the Kremlin's determination to keep Assad in power. But it's not really an operation against the Islamic State, since Putin has already said Russian troops won't fight ISIS; rather, they'll fight Assad's other enemies.

Putin's plan for a coalition is that essentially all the Sunni states fight Sunni extremists for the benefit of Iran and its terrorist allies, Assad and Hezbollah. Russian and Western sources have revealed that Moscow facilitates the movement of terrorists from the North Caucasus to Syria and Iraq so that they do not fight in Russia—hardly a sign of Putin's commitment to battle terrorism. In fact, Moscow continues to supply weapons through Syria and Iran to Hezbollah even as it trades with Israel and insists on helping bring Hamas into power in the West Bank—alongside the Palestinian Authority—and denies that Hamas is a terrorist organization.

Yet Moscow's Mideast strategy isn't only about military strategy. Russian arms sales go hand in hand with its efforts to influence energy projects in Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Turkey, and even Cyprus. Russia clearly seeks leverage on gas and oil supplies to Europe and tries to persuade Saudi Arabia to collaborate in raising energy prices to rescue its own troubled economy. This confluence of arms sales, energy deals, and military power projection points to a larger strategy with discernible geopolitical aims.

Turkey, a NATO ally, is also feeling the Russian squeeze. Once Russia finishes building its bases in Syria, its overwhelming dominance in the Black Sea and air and naval capabilities to the south will sandwich Turkey between them. Even as bilateral energy talks sputter and that relationship has soured, Moscow is now bringing into play new ways of pressuring Turkey. A look at Turkish defense procurements and plans for importing weapons suggests that Ankara has begun to grasp the threat. But no one wants to discuss this pressure on a fellow NATO member.

Russia's intervention in Syria also shows its readiness to seize tactical opportunities as they present themselves to advance its European initiatives as well. Previously Moscow was willing to press Iran if that would lead to US concessions in Europe; Putin hopes to leverage the bogus idea of an anti-ISIS coalition to obtain relief from sanctions and its increasingly stagnant war in Ukraine.

US and European diplomats may grasp this element of Russian strategy, but they still seem incapable of responding effectively—either militarily or politically—whether in the Baltics or in the Middle East. French President François Hollande's statement that the West should lift its sanctions if Russia implements Minsk II—even though that would be a suicide pact for Ukraine—along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's declaration that the West must engage Russia in the Middle East reflect this continuing addiction to wishful thinking rather than hardheaded analysis. Under the circumstances, is it any wonder that Moscow continues to catch the West off guard?

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:15 AM

One needs now to ask how much regime air operations are necessarily linked to #Iran command & control. Iran negotiated truce not #Assad.

Extraordinary: regime breaks truce within 48hrs.. Jaish al-Fateh now shelling Al-Fuah & suicide truck bombs on standby for ground offensive.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:19 AM

Notice Russian so called humanitarian support concepts being carried out both in eastern Ukraine and in Syria---just how many times did Russian use their veto to block a UNSC decision on aid support to Syrians???

Humanitarian cargoes are blocked from entering "DNLR" since mid-July, in defiance of Minsk
https://www.facebook.com/euromaidanpress.en/photos/a.220820914768385.1073741828.220542374796239/444139735769834/?type=3&permPage=1 … pic.twitter.com/2ZHHTJ25IT

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:24 AM

30.000 foreigners fight for IS. Guy on the right looks like a Uzbek http://www.n24.de/n24/Nachrichten/Politik/d/7365636/30-000-auslaender-kaempfen-fuer-den-islamischen-staat.html … pic.twitter.com/UQERoizgcL

Russian intel services have given two different numbers of Russians fighting for IS---the MoI was at 1800 and the FSB at 2400.

Say split the difference at 2100 ---no wonder Russia is fighting IS in Syria so they do not fight in Russia where they themselves gave tacit support to IS by allowing/motivating them to leave.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:30 AM

Eastern Ukraine and Syria are not intertwined as a single Russian strategy.

This is the Russian attempt to rewrite history---

Russia rewrites history and “forgot” the Ribbentrop Molotov agreement along the way---
RF Amb to Poland: "Soviet's invasion of Poland was an act of self-defense, not aggression." Unbe-fu*kin-believable. http://www.dw.com/en/poland-furious-after-russia-blames-them-for-starting-wwii/a-18743484 …

So then listen to all the reasons Putin and his FM have been stating for their adventure into Syria---we are at six and counting.

ALL the time forgetting it has been massive Russian weapons shipments and 20K Russian advisors helping Assad along the way.

NOW the mantra is--"defeat IS"--the very same IS that Russian allowed approximately 2100 Russians to join.

Russia rewrites history??--their answer is no and blame the West for rewriting it.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:34 AM

Syrian state TV started to broadcast Russian military songs with Arabic subtilte pic.twitter.com/i9rpavbewD

Gen. Hodges: "#Ukraine is only a symptom... #Russia believes that they're entitled to a sphere where they can dictate what countries do."

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:37 AM

So much for the Iraqi refusal for Russians to fly through their airspace----

RUAF Il-76 78847 noted in northern Iraq. http://www.flightradar24.com/AZAZ909/78a2b62 pic.twitter.com/NfOHXp5BkV

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 10:57 AM

Footage
Children painting competition in "jihadi-held" #Hayan, north of #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXtppskT7JE …

Picture
Childhood in #Assad's #Syria.
Safe, as long as you stay 3 meters under the earth.

See how "terrorists" play w/ children in #Assad-safe bunker in "jihadi-held" Maarat al-Numan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5hW42qgx7Y …

Syria From frontline in Durin in #Latakia mountains
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X97YR6BubgY …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.676124&lon=36.139011&z=15&m=b …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 11:02 AM

While this is Russia flights in Crimea---watch the wing tips of the SU-25 upon landing---

Su-33 & Su-25 jets (#Russia|n Navy, 279 naval fighter regiment) at NITKA training area, Crimea on 9/11
MT @KURYERSAT

https://youtu.be/MmnmX5nTrd8?t=6m28s …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 01:55 PM

Finally a author using the term "hybrid political warfare" in an article because that is exactly what Putin is conducting in Syria.

https://csis.org/publication/russia-syria-hybrid-political-warfare

Russia in Syria: Hybrid Political Warfare

NOTE: we should when using the term hybrid really recall it is non linear warfare which is a UW strategic strategy employed by Russia, China, Iran and IS.

Nice to finally in all the Syrian/Ukrainian chatter see the term "political warfare".

By Anthony H. Cordesman

Sep 23, 2015

According to reliable press reports, President Vladimir Putin has already made major changes in the Russian military role in Syria. No one can yet estimate how many more forces and weapons Russia will provide, but so far Putin’s major actions include:

• Expanding Russian port facilities in the naval base at Tartus and expanding an airfield south of Latakia into an air base.

• Deploying 3-4 Su-27 fighters, 12 Su-24 strike fighters, 12 Su-10 close support fighters, and Pchela-1T UAVs.

• Providing R-166-0.5 (ultra) high-frequency signal (HF/VHF) vehicles with jam-resistant voice and data communications, which have been seen driving through Syria.

• Providing an unknown number of new artillery weapons, reportedly 152 millimeter (mm) systems.

• Deploying six or more T-90 main battle tanks, 35 or more new BTR-82A/B wheeled armored-fighting vehicles (AFVs) with 30 mm cannon turrets, and an unknown number of Russian Humvee equivalents.

• Deploying prefabricated housing for up to 2,000.

• Deploying an unknown number of SA-22 land-based air defense systems.

• Possibly deploying 200 marines and housing for as many as 1,500 personnel at the airfield near President Bashar al-Assad’s ancestral family home.

These actions need to be kept in context. Russia first acquired a small naval base or facility in Syria back in 1971, in the days of the Soviet Union and the Cold War. At one point, it based elements of the 5th Operational Squadron of its Mediterranean Fleet there. Since 1991, however, Russia has not deployed a meaningful fleet in the Mediterranean, and the port facilities have never been expand to berth or support Russia’s largest ships. In any case, Russia’s naval forces cannot not play a meaningful role in Syria’s civil war.

There also is nothing new about Russian arms transfers to Syria. Almost all of the weapons in Syrian government forces are Russian, and Russia has backed Assad with weapons and military support ever since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. While Russian arms transfers to Syria helped keep the Assad regime alive, they had limited impact. Syrian forces were already far better equipped than the rebel forces, but this scarcely kept them from steadily losing ground during most of 2014.

What has grabbed the world’s attention is that Russia seems to be building up an active Russian air base and is deploying strike and close support aircraft it can use against any mix of rebel forces. This gives it the capability to intervene actively in the Syrian civil war at a time Assad has been badly losing ground and the potential capability to challenge U.S. and other Coalition aircraft flying missions against ISIS and other extremist rebel forces from Turkey and the Gulf. It also creates a major potential barrier to U.S. or allied no fly or security zones in Syria and forces every rebel faction to consider the risk of engaging Russia.

Putin and Russia have played this game before. In 2008, Russia talked about a major expansion of its naval forces and naval base in Syria as part of the hard line it took with the United States and West over the deployment of missile defenses in Poland and in defense of its invasion of Georgia. In 2011 and 2012, it deployed ships to Syria to show its support of Assad, and there again was talk of turning its decaying naval facility into a real base. The difference is that this time the Russian presence could really matter. It could have a major impact in keeping the Assad regime alive, limiting further rebel gains, and forcing the United States and its allies to be much more cautious about their use of air power.

What it already has shown, however, is that Putin can and will exploit the use of military forces as political weapons in hybrid or asymmetric political warfare. Like the Chinese construction of air facilities on reefs and small islands in the South China Sea, Putin did not have to fire a shot to assert Russian power, focus the world’s attention, and counter U.S. influence.

In fact, Putin will be much better off if Russia does not use its forces in Syria, carefully limits them to the direct support of Assad, or uses them as a political weapon to assert Russia’s role in the Middle East, pressure the United States to limit its military actions, or push for negotiations that favor Assad and again highlight Russia’s role in the region.

Putin can also use his forces to show that Russia will back a local strong man and is countering what he had called U.S. support of “color revolutions.” This is part of a far broader Russian effort to say that the United States has deliberately used its power to destabilize regimes in the developing world, and its military actions in Iraq and Libya were part of a U.S. effort to control such countries–not one to create new liberal and democratic regimes. He can also quietly exploit the situation to show Iran that Russia is again a potential counterweight to the United States.

There is, of course, the risk that Putin will miscalculate, or will go further and some military incident will occur with U.S., allied, Israeli, or U.S.-backed rebel forces. Putin could also continue his present buildup to make Tartus into a real Russian naval base and create a major Russian military air and land-based air defense presence. This history of limited political warfare often escalates into more serious tensions or conflict.

At the same time, the United States needs to rethink some of its perceptions of both Russian and Chinese power. It is obvious that both states not only have the ability to conduct complex political warfare, but they are willing to do so. The United States needs to be ready to react accordingly, make its own political moves, and do so with sufficient innovation and decisiveness to both deter such moves by Russia and other states and minimize the risk of any serious military incident or escalation. So far, the White House has tended to error on the side of inaction—rather than caution—and the U.S. military has focused on the actual use of forces. Not every hybrid “war” has to involve little green men or even fire a single shot.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 03:00 PM

Great example of the "political warfare" at work--right now after Putin "begged" but claims he did not beg for an Obama meeting to show to his own society he is a great leader AND it was Obama who called for the meeting.

NOW he is attempting to set the agenda because media is indicating Obama only wants to talk about the Ukraine and Putin is desperately trying to tie him into the Putin agenda for Syria, give him a pass in the Ukraine, recognize Crimea as Russian and to soften or eliminate all sanctions.

NOW watch the Russian Orwellian doublespeak in action--he "condemns the US for their illegal actions in the ME in supporting anti Assad forces BUT THEN notice if one uses the same exact words Putin uses to state the US is illegal THEN and only THEN is he Putin in fact conducting an illegal support of mercenaries in the eastern Ukraine.

Political warfare is inherently all about double standards.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/27/us-mideast-crisis-putin-usa-idUSKCN0RR0H820150927?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:46am EDT

U.S. support for Syria rebels illegal, Putin says ahead of Obama meeting

MOSCOW | By Jack Stubbs and Denis Dyomkin

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday branded U.S. support for rebel forces in Syria as illegal and ineffective, saying U.S.-trained rebels were leaving to join Islamic State with weapons supplied by Washington.

In an interview with U.S. networks recorded ahead of a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, Putin said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad deserved international support as he was fighting terrorist organizations.

Obama and Putin are scheduled to talk on Monday after Putin addresses the United Nations, although White House and Kremlin officials have disagreed on what the two leaders will discuss and even who initiated the meeting.

"In my opinion, provision of military support to illegal structures runs counter to the principles of modern international law and the United Nations Charter," he said in an excerpt of an interview with U.S. television networks CBS and PBS released by the Kremlin.

Russia has stepped up its military involvement in Syria in recent weeks, with U.S. officials accusing Moscow of sending combat aircraft, tanks and other equipment to help the Syrian army.

NOTICE Putin does not mention a single word that Assad released hundreds of Islamists out of prisons who he assumed would attack the moderate Syrians and he was right, he attacked moderate anti Assad forces an ignored IS, he then committed genocide on his own civilian population with chemical weapons and barrel bombs, and has driven millions out of Syria BY his actions not the actions of IS--YET Putin claims he deserves to be supported because he is fighting terrorists WHEN he himself is a terrorist killing his to his own people?????

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 03:19 PM

Now a critique of a very weak US President who basically does nothin in Syria.

http://linkis.com/com/6VZJK

The Endgame in Syria

The Strategy That Dares Not Speak Its Name

Outlines of a Russian-mediated grand bargain on Syria are slowly emerging, with the deal allowing Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to remain in power during a transitional period while a coalition to combat ISIS is put together. Some kind of bargain, whether it looks like Russia’s or not, may get international support.

As we noted in yesterday’s morning email, murkily sourced reports suggest that both Saudi Arabia and Iran are guardedly open to some kind of compromise solution. Then yesterday afternoon, Germany’s Angela Merkel broke with the standing European consensus and stated that some kind of negotiated solution to Syria would include Assad, while Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara was open to Assad remaining in power during a transition phase, as long as the opposition was also included, and Assad stepped down at the end of the process. Now France, too, may be hopping on the bandwagon.

But the biggest question will be what happens when President Obama sits down with President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on Monday. There, the Administration seems to be pursuing an odd strategy: It is insulting Putin even as it agrees to meet with him. As this NYT story illustrates, the White House is going to great lengths to make it look as if Putin is desperate to meet with Obama. This is probably one more triumph of short-term PR thinking over any kind of strategic approach—an attempt at trying to make President Obama “look” strong.

Meanwhile, the West Wing’s core strategy in Syria is looking more and more like an attempt to keep the U.S. out no matter what happens—while making it look as if we care. What that strategy boils down to is letting Iran and Russia do pretty much what they want in the Middle East in the belief that the fight is too dirty for the U.S. to gain anything by participating in it. But because this strategy telegraphs weakness globally and threatens to destabilize the Middle East even more than we’ve already seen, it would go over very poorly in the U.S. if it dared to speak its own name.
Perhaps Obama is hoping that Syria will become a quagmire for Iran and Russia that ultimately does to them what Afghanistan did to the Soviet Union. Perhaps he doesn’t think anything the U.S. can do will lead to a better result at an acceptable price, and so he is resigned to letting whatever hellish horrors erupt in Syria take their course. “Let the black flower blossom as it may”, as Hawthorne wrote in The Scarlet Letter.

However, it really is Obama who needs the meeting more than Putin. At earlier stages in the crisis, mostly for PR reasons (and to quiet the anguished wails of people like Samantha Power who presumably objected to becoming a bystander in the worst case of mass murder since Rwanda), President Obama and his cabinet, believing that Assad’s regime would soon collapse on its own, unwisely publicly demanded that “Assad must go.” As it turned out, Assad didn’t really have to go. He just kept murdering people by the truckload, and Obama sat passively by. Now the president needs a fig leaf, and it would help Obama a great deal if Putin and the Iranians would do him the favor of getting rid of their Syrian ally.

The other half of the president’s Syria dilemma is ISIS. Here again he needs to appear to be doing something, given the effect ISIS has had on American opinion. But his goal appears to be to look busy while doing as little as possible. A few random bombs here, some drone strikes there, a flashy-sounding train-and-equip program (that nevertheless peskily throws some truly embarrassing stories every so often into the daily news flow)—basically a PR effort that keeps the political heat off but doesn’t amount to more than the absolute minimum response.

But one can tread water like this for only so long. The Sunni Arabs, who smell a betrayal of historic proportions, want him to concentrate on kicking the Shi’a power out of Syria. If he isn’t doing that, anything he does against ISIS without also taking on Assad underlines the degree to which he seems to be shifting U.S. support from the Sunnis to the Shi’a, enflaming the region in unpredictable ways. If the Russians and Iranians will do Obama the favor of getting rid of Assad—even if it is just setting him up in a lovely dacha outside Moscow for permanent retirement—then Obama has something to show to the Sunnis. He can then continue his desultory campaign against ISIS while hoping that, for reasons of their own, the Russians and Iranians will also help him turn the tide in that fight.

So in practical terms, however it looks to the schedulers, yes, Obama needs the meeting more than Putin. The question won’t be what price will Putin pay Obama for help. It is exactly the other way around: How much will Putin charge Obama to help him out of the hole that an incoherent Syria and regional Middle East policies have left him in? One thing we can be fairly sure of, with respect to that question, is that Putin isn’t interested in helping Obama in any serious way.

Dividing America’s alliances, undermining its prestige, and weakening its global position remains the pole star of Putin’s foreign policy. Lucy hasn’t asked to see Charlie Brown, that is, to apologize for pulling the football away.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 03:26 PM

Syria #Idlib #ادلب #Iran #Iranian Unmanned Shahed 129 drone flying over Idlib Countryside today

pic.twitter.com/7xh12VChwN

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 03:29 PM

Syria, Jameel Qaseer a regime shabbiha #Warcriminals – seen in Berlin – Germany

https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/09/27/syria-jameel-qaseer-a-regime-shabbiha-warcriminals-seen-in-berlin-germany … pic.twitter.com/6ZMoIkSzzk

Syria,Ahmad Hejazi a regime shabbiha #Warcriminals – seen in Germany https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/09/27/syriaahmad-hejazi-a-regime-shabbiha-warcriminals-seen-in-germany … pic.twitter.com/NNfh10088G

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 03:32 PM

Great example of the "political warfare" at work--right now after Putin "begged" but claims he did not beg for an Obama meeting to show to his own society he is a great leader AND it was Obama who called for the meeting.

NOW he is attempting to set the agenda because media is indicating Obama only wants to talk about the Ukraine and Putin is desperately trying to tie him into the Putin agenda for Syria, give him a pass in the Ukraine, recognize Crimea as Russian and to soften or eliminate all sanctions.

NOW watch the Russian Orwellian doublespeak in action--he "condemns the US for their illegal actions in the ME in supporting anti Assad forces BUT THEN notice if one uses the same exact words Putin uses to state the US is illegal THEN and only THEN is he Putin in fact conducting an illegal support of mercenaries in the eastern Ukraine.

Political warfare is inherently all about double standards.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/27/us-mideast-crisis-putin-usa-idUSKCN0RR0H820150927?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:46am EDT

U.S. support for Syria rebels illegal, Putin says ahead of Obama meeting

MOSCOW | By Jack Stubbs and Denis Dyomkin

NOTICE Putin does not mention a single word that Assad released hundreds of Islamists out of prisons who he assumed would attack the moderate Syrians and he was right, he attacked moderate anti Assad forces an ignored IS, he then committed genocide on his own civilian population with chemical weapons and barrel bombs, and has driven millions out of Syria BY his actions not the actions of IS--YET Putin claims he deserves to be supported because he is fighting terrorists WHEN he himself is a terrorist killing his to his own people?????

Germany "will not be blackmailed" by Russia into trading Ukraine for help on Syria, a top Merkel aide says. http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/peter-altmaier-ueber-volkswagen-syrien-fluechtlinge-was-die-union-umtreibt-und-wie-die-regierung-die-krise-in-syrien-angeht/12373932-3.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 03:34 PM

Footage
#Assad's barrel bombs rain on the town of #Simlin in #Daraa province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wb7SNCrt9Cs …
pic.twitter.com/tBXxQQo9tj

Footage
Syrian #IDP camp in "jihadi-terrorist-held" #Latakia province
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcWtniFCTM8 …
pic.twitter.com/ZqJDV0g8Yc

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 03:55 PM

Christina Lin: "why China is backing Russia & Assad in Syria to fight Uyghur militia (TIP) http://toi.sr/1FAbMZT

China&Russia r bigger stakeholders in Syria than US due to geography & radicalized Jihadists," writes Chinese friend http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/central-asian-fighters-syria-join-al-nusra-front-259685836 …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:01 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/27/world/on-syria-putin-is-catering-to-an-audience-at-home.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0

Europe | News Analysis

On Syria, Putin Is Catering to an Audience at Home

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR

SEPT. 26, 2015

MOSCOW — A funny thing happened on the way to the United Nations General Assembly, where President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will speak on Monday for the first time in 10 years.

In the weeks leading up to the meeting, the war in Ukraine all but disappeared from the state-run television channels that monopolize news coverage in Russia. In its place: War in Syria!

There was Dmitry Kiselyov, the infamous news anchor who repeatedly accused Washington of plotting every step of the Ukraine crisis, instead damning the Islamic State. “The barbarian caliphate in the Middle East is an absolute evil, slithering in the direction of Russia,” he said, “But we have a firm ally in the Middle East: Syria. To surrender it means inviting terrorists to come to us.”

With that, Mr. Kiselyov introduced a report by a prominent war correspondent, formerly stationed in eastern Ukraine, who filed the latest in a series of dispatches suggesting that the valiant Syrian military could not win on its own.

The Kremlin’s effort to change the conversation at home to Syria marks an important, if ultimately temporary, shift. It shows that Mr. Putin’s military and diplomatic moves leading up to the United Nations meeting are aimed as much at his domestic audience as the international front.

On Monday, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is scheduled to speak at the United Nations for the first time in a decade. Credit Pool photo by Alexei Nikolsky/Ria Novosti/Kremlin

In some ways the goals are intertwined, with Mr. Putin’s stature overseas meant to shore up his ability to single-handedly dominate Russia, as he has for much of the past 15 years.

“The most important goals, and the ones he really cares about, are the domestic ones,” said Maxim Trudolyubov, the editor at large of the newspaper Vedomosti.

First, the focus on Syria allows Mr. Putin to move the conversation away from Ukraine, which most Russians are tired of anyway. Acting as if the whole thing is over in Ukraine gives him latitude to make compromises there that will spur the lifting of Western sanctions without him looking as if he is caving to foreign pressure.

Second, it gives Mr. Putin the opportunity to play the statesman, too busy reasserting Russia’s rightful position in the world to get caught up in problems like recession, 16 percent inflation and a weak ruble.

“He wants to keep the society consolidated and to present himself continuously as a high-profile leader who lives somewhere above everything in the country,” Mr. Trudolyubov said, “so you cannot connect anything that he is doing to what is happening with the ruble, or the hospitals or the schools or the roads. All that is beneath him.”

Third, there is a kind of “bread and circus” aspect to it all. In keeping with the paternalistic traditions of czarist Russia, Mr. Putin constantly assumes the role of national superhero.

That requires a constant supply of new feats, however, from organizing the 2014 Winter Olympic Games to plotting the annexation of Crimea to taming Islamic terrorists (with the occasional wrestling with tigers in between).

“A lot of heroic things should be done by a hero in this land,” said Konstantin V. Remchukov, owner and editor of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a Moscow newspaper.

Certainly, Russia has real concerns about the events in Syria and maintains a good sense of its military weaknesses from having advisers in key war rooms under longstanding military aid contracts. The forces of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria were reportedly so depleted by the end of the summer that Damascus sent a senior envoy to Moscow to warn that the government was weighing a retreat from the capital to the coastal heartland of the Alawite minority that constitutes much of the elite. As in southeastern Ukraine, Mr. Putin could not contemplate any military humiliation for an ally.

In August, the United States and Saudi Arabia endorsed a renewed effort by Russia to seek a political solution to the Syria conflict. Russian officials told diplomats here that they hoped to get negotiations between the government and the Syrian opposition started again by the end of October. But progress was constantly impeded by the question of Mr. Assad’s future in any political solution, apparently persuading Moscow to switch to the idea of a military coalition to fight the Islamic State.

No one is quite sure what Mr. Putin will say on Monday, whether he will propose specific military action or stick to general themes. He will spend only the day in New York and not stay overnight, his spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, told the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

This month Mr. Putin began emphasizing the idea that Mr. Assad was the ally needed to fight the Islamic State on the ground. First, target the Islamic State, Russia officials now say repeatedly, then worry about shaping a political transition in Damascus.

Mr. Putin laid out many of those themes in a speech at a regional security conference in Tajikistan two weeks ago, and some diplomats and analysts expect his United Nations speech to echo that one.

If the Islamic State seemed a distant threat at one point, the Kremlin now appears genuinely concerned about repercussions. About 2,400 Russians have joined the extremist movement, a senior security official announced recently, and an additional 3,000 men from Central Asian states are believed to be fighting in Syria.

It is considered unlikely that Mr. Putin will propose sending Russian troops to join the fighting. The memories of the Russian debacle in Afghanistan in the 1980s remain too fresh. Even Russian casualties fighting next door in Ukraine — a war the public accepted as necessary for its own protection — were hidden by the state.

By proposing a grand coalition against the Islamic State and providing the weapons to back it up, Mr. Putin has already leveraged himself into a meeting expected Monday with a reluctant President Obama. The leaders of Turkey, Israel and the Palestinian Authority have all held talks with the Russian leader in the last week.

“All these preparations are aimed at attracting more attention to Putin,” said Nicolai Petrov, a political science professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “It helped change Obama’s mind about meeting Putin, which showed that it is effective.”

Mr. Putin has claimed repeatedly in recent years that the chaotic state of the world, particularly the level of violence in the Middle East, is because the United States is the solitary power. The underlying idea is that things were better off when the Soviet Union was around to check American might.

Some expect Mr. Putin to frame his arguments in those terms at the United Nations, where he is likely to find a receptive audience. “It will be about establishing a new pillar so that power in the world is more balanced,” Mr. Remchukov said.

Traditionally, Brazil opens the General Assembly, followed by a speech by the president of the United States. After that, the audience scatters. But Mr. Putin is due to speak sixth. Given the intense interest in what he will say, the government heads might actually stick around to listen and applaud.

The applause, of course, is the short-term reason Mr. Putin is coming to the United Nations for the first time in a decade. Because of the Ukraine crisis, he was thrown out of the G-8 countries of leading economic powers, and felt so snubbed at the last G-20 meeting in Australia that he flew home early.

“He has to leave Russia to demonstrate that he is not isolated, that he is a respected member of the international community gathering in New York,” said Alexandr I. Shumilin, the head of the Center for the Analysis of Middle East Conflicts, in Moscow.

“For the Russian audience it will be an attempt to send the same message, that Putin is always right,” Mr. Shumilin said, “that he is always a driving force, he is still raising Russia from its knees and flexing muscles. It is an attempt to maintain the level of propaganda that proved so successful with the Ukraine crisis.”

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:03 PM

Syria Rebels cut off pro regime #Druze town Hadar in #Quneitra
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.259360&lon=35.838261&z=14&m=b …

Syira #Daraa Airstrikes on Simlin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wb7SNCrt9Cs …
whole area is a hot frontline http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.057882&lon=36.101418&z=14&m=b …

Syria #Daraa Rebels shelling regime forces in #Qarfa with rockets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgkMcNcPsTo …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.814546&lon=36.200294&z=14&m=b …

Syria Drone above Kili in northern #Idlib
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.109242&lon=36.695108&z=14&m=b …

If this is the newest Iranian strike drone—then big news---

Syria Increasing airstrikes on southern #Idlib point the new battlefront btw Jaish al-Fatah & #Assad-forces after cease-fire in north part?

Syria #Idlib Airstrike on outskirts of Ma`arrat Hurmah https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccJe3gg83Hg … http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.553597&lon=36.540527&z=14&m=b …

Syria #Daraa Clashes at 12th Armoured #SAA Brigade in #Izra garrison town http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.857527&lon=36.264153&z=14&m=b …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:09 PM

Russia are now operating helicopters from a 2nd Syrian base, the Istamo ammunition site.

pic.twitter.com/w9HdxsXMYg

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:16 PM

Intel-sharing agreement between Moscow & Tehran last fall set the stage for adding Syria & Iraq to that alliance now

http://20committee.com/2014/10/24/new-intelligence-cooperation-between-moscow-and-tehran/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:26 PM

Bill Roggio ‏@billroggio · Sep 26

US-backed rebels handed over equipment to al Qaeda in Syria - http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/09/us-backed-rebels-handed-over-equipment-to-al-qaeda-in-syria.php … by @thomasjoscelyn

1) Suggestion for CENTCOM/Obama admin: why not cut out the middle man and arm Al Nusrah Front directly?

2) If you wonder how conspiracy theories about US creating al Qaeda, Islamic State, etc. arise, this is how: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/

3) Obama administration "strategy" towards Iraq/Syria is an abject failure.

4) In a nutshell, the optics in Iraq/Syria are that we arm al Qaeda and provide air cover to Iranian backed Shiite militias.

5) The Obama admin and CENTCOM are so desperate to defeat the Islamic State that it is making irrational decisions that are harmful longterm

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:35 PM

Humor-----

Sputnik's photographer captures a pic of vacationer from #Russia on his way to #Syria pic.twitter.com/kMZ3SHtSVx

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:40 PM

LATAKIA: 38 CHECHEN TERRORISTS KILLED BY SYRIAN ARMY AND AIR FORCE http://syrianperspective.com/2015/09/latakia-38-chechen-terrorists-killed-by-syrian-army-and-air-force.html … pic.twitter.com/Pk83YDqlbr

SYRIAN ARMY REINFORCEMENTS MASSIVE IN ALEPPO AS NEW CAMPAIGN BEGINS; GENERAL AL-FURAYJ… http://syrianperspective.com/2015/09/syrian-army-reinforcements-massive-in-aleppo-as-new-campaign-begins-general-al-furayj-reviews-troops-in-derah-as-syrian-jets-rock-isis-and-alqaeda.html …

Russian military takes command of east Aleppo operations to lift the siege on the Kuweires Military Airport:... http://fb.me/6SSR3BGR5

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 04:49 PM

Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti

Relative quiet in #Donbas; #Kohver swapped. Why, it's almost as if #Russia is trying to minimize embarrassments before #Putin-#Obama meet!

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 05:05 PM

https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2015/09/26/russians-in-syria-zaslon-and-the-risks-of-going-native/

Russians In Syria, Zaslon, and the risks of going native

by Mark Galeotti

SyriaIt is behind a paywall, alas, but I just wanted to note that Bearing Down: Russia to defend core Syrian government areas, a composite article on the Russians in Syria (me on the Russian side of things, Jonathan Spyer of the Rubin Center on the Syrian dimension) has come out in Jane's Intelligence Review. There's a short extract here, and some of the interested satellite photography has also made it into the general press. There has been a great deal of discussion about the deployment of Naval Infantry, Su-25 bombers and the like, but I did want to quote one paragraph of mine to highlight another aspect of the Russian commitment:

There is also a team from the Russian military Main Intelligence Directorate (Glavnoye razvedyvatelnoye upravleniye: GRU) attached to its Syrian counterparts, the Mukhabarat, working in the Ministry of Defence building on Umayyad Square, Damascus, according to IHS Jane’s sources. Western intelligence sources have also told IHS Jane’s that a small special forces team in Damascus is reporting neither to the GRU or to regular military cells, but instead to the Russian embassy on Omar Ben Al-Khattab Street. [I][U]This implies that it may therefore be a unit from Zaslon, the highly-secretive special forces of the Foreign Intelligence Service (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki: SVR).

So first of all I think it's important to note the extent to which the Russians may also be playing an increasing role in intelligence operations and military planning. Understandable, and they may well do some good for the regime. However, if we look at the Soviet experience in Afghanistan, while working alongside the locals can sometimes breed exasperation, even contempt, it can also lead to a Stockholm Syndrome of sorts as the outsiders begin to acquire an emotional commitment to their in-country counterparts. I wonder how this will affect the reporting going back to Moscow, and and if they will press for greater deployments when -- I suppose if, but honestly I expect when -- the war continues to go badly for Damascus.

But at the same time if that SF unit is from Zaslon -- and that is just my speculation based on what little I have heard, and the way the reporting chain is not what I would expect for military Spetsnaz -- then that would suggest that Moscow is at least willing to contemplate the possibility of the fall of the regime. The last time I heard with any confidence of Zaslon being deployed (other than a few individuals in extreme diplomatic protection missions) was to Baghdad in the final days of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship. Then, their role was to secure (retrieve or destroy) particular documents, military tech and whatever else Moscow wanted to ensure did not end up in American hands. It could be that, as higher tech Russian kit begins to bolster the regime's capabilities, Zaslon is being deployed again as a precautionary measure.

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 05:36 PM

http://www.timesofisrael.com/report-syria-arming-hezbollah-with-75-soviet-era-tanks/

Report: Syria arming Hezbollah with 75 Soviet-era tanks

By Times of Israel staff September 26, 2015, 11:56 am

The Syrian army has given dozens of Soviet-era tanks to the Islamist Hezbollah organization to help battle its enemies, Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai reported Saturday.

According to the report, the move comes as Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Russia have launched a “joint operations room” to coordinate their campaign to defeat the extremist Islamic State group, which has captured swathes of Syrian territory during the country’s four-year civil war, as well as the opposition groups, some linked to al-Qaeda, seeking to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The newspaper quotes official sources as saying that each party will be responsible for particular areas of Syria, with Russia operating in Latakia, Hama and some parts of the Aleppo province, while Iran will be defending the capital Damascus and down to Quneitra on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. The report also states that some 100 Iranian special forces trained in urban warfare have arrived in Damascus

Hezbollah will reportedly be taking up positions around Homs, where the ancient city of Palmyra — now largely decimated by Islamic State — is located. The Syrian army has received substantial support from thousands of fighters dispatched from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lebanon — and most notably fellow Iranian client Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces has been preparing for a possible ground operation on the Syrian side of the Golan in the event of sustained rocket strikes or coordinated terror attacks against Israel either by Sunni jihadists or Hezbollah.

The number of Islamists flooding into the area close to the border with Israel has the IDF on high alert, Channel 2 reported last month, adding that the military had held a large-scale drill simulating a possible advance into Syria and the evacuation of Israeli civilians from border communities.

The reported deployment of tanks comes less than a week after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Russian President Vladimir Putin had voiced no opposition to a warning during their meeting in Moscow on Monday that Israel would act “to thwart the deadly weapons transfers from the Syrian army to Hezbollah.”

Netanyahu said that he told Putin in “no uncertain terms” that Israel would not tolerate Iranian efforts to arm Israel’s enemies in the region, and that Jerusalem has taken and will continue to take action against any such attempts. “There were no objections to our rights and to what I said. On the contrary: there was readiness to make sure that whatever Russia’s intentions for Syria, Russia will not be a partner in extreme actions by Iran against us.”

Ahead of their meeting, as they made statements to the press, Netanyahu told Putin that Iran and Syria have been arming Hezbollah with advanced weapons, thousands of which are directed at Israeli cities. “At the same time, Iran, under the auspices of the Syrian army, is attempting to build a second terrorist front against us from the Golan Heights.”

The prime minister told his Russian host that Israel’s policy is to prevent these weapons transfers “and to prevent the creation of a terrorist front and attacks on us from the Golan Heights.” Netanyahu came to the Kremlin to “clarify our policies, and to make sure that there is no misunderstanding between our forces,” he said.

Putin replied by saying that the Syrian army was too bogged down in its own civil war to deal with fighting against Israel.

“All of Russia’s actions in the region will always be very responsible,” Putin said. “We are aware of the shelling against Israel and we condemn all such shelling. I know that these shellings are carried out by internal elements. In regard to Syria, we know that the Syrian army is in a situation such that it is incapable of opening a new front.”

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 05:42 PM

Syria Russian "GRANAT-3" UAV spotted flying over Jabal Al Zawiya , South of Ariha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAkeTGjLo_E … pic.twitter.com/WhXv5I19v0

From Lattakia with Love" - Russian "Orlan-10" is also flying over Rebels/Nusra positions in #Idlib countryside . pic.twitter.com/524t0KLrQu

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 05:44 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 05:57 PM

Let's see Putin wants to fight IS BUT French airstrikes are what again--illegal and destructive.....and the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine is what again---legal??????

Russia'n FM spox. on French airstrikes in #Syria today: They are "destruction" of international law. - @izvestia_ru http://izvestia.ru/news/592095

OUTLAW 09

09-27-2015, 06:03 PM

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/syria-the-assad-conundrum

September 27, 2015

Syria: The Assad Conundrum

By Frederic C. Hof

Distinguished intellectual and former Obama administration official Philip Gordon has called for a fundamental Syria policy recalculation centering on the status of Bashar al-Assad. Gordon's basic thesis is that if Washington and its partners drop their demand for preemptive victory—Bashar's immediate departure—Iran and Russia may see their way clear to shuffling their noisome client off stage within a period of time broadly acceptable to all concerned. In truth, this approach has always been on the table. It is fully operative now. Neither the regime, nor Tehran, nor Moscow have demonstrated any interest in it.

Gordon was present at Geneva on June 30, 2012 when the Final Communique of the Action Group on Syria, convened by United Nations Special Envoy Kofi Annan, was signed. The permanent five (P5) members of the UN Security Council agreed on a strikingly direct approach to Syrian political transition from kleptocratic, violent despotism to the pluralistic, democratic system called for by two UN Security Council resolutions. Syrians representing the regime and the opposition would negotiate, based on mutual consent, a transitional governing body that would exercise full executive power. The name "Assad" was not mentioned in the document. This was no accident.

During the talks leading to the communique, representatives of France, the United Kingdom, and the United States argued that Assad—recognized even then as the author of serial war crimes and crimes against humanity—should be explicitly barred from partaking in Syria's political transition. Russia objected. It did so as a matter of principle: Syrians should decide. The three allies offered a counter-proposal: anyone with blood on his or her hands should be excluded. The Russian objection was straightforward: "blood on his hands" would be seen as a synonym for Bashar al-Assad. No one at the table could disagree. In the end, it was agreed that the composition of the transitional governing body would be a Syrian decision, arrived at based on mutual consent.

According to the Geneva guidelines therefore—agreed to unanimously by the P5—it would be permissible for Assad to serve on the transitional governing body. Indeed, he could preside over it. All that was required was the consent of the opposition delegation. Similarly, delegates representing the Syrian Arab Republic—the regime and the government—could withhold consent to persons nominated by the opposition.

Is this, therefore, a wheel that requires reinvention? Gordon suggests that for "Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the other Sunni states supporting the Syrian opposition, his [Assad's] immediate departure has been a sine qua non for even talking about ending the conflict . . ." This is actually not so. Whatever skepticism they have expressed about the readiness of the Assad regime to negotiate in good faith, they did not block the participation of the opposition Syrian National Coalition (SNC) in the Lausanne and Geneva conferences of late 2013 and early 2014. The SNC arrived at those talks fully prepared to proceed based on the 2012 Geneva Final Communique. It behaved professionally and creatively. The regime delegation make a mockery of the proceedings. Were the regime to show up now at Geneva prepared to do business in accordance with the P5 formula it would find the opposition—with the full endorsement and support of the London 11—prepared to negotiate the creation of a transitional governing body.

Gordon posits, "It might be necessary to put off agreement on Assad's fate until the end of the process, rather than insisting on it being resolved at the beginning." He is quite right, and this is exactly what the Geneva process envisions. Once all-Syrian negotiations create a transitional governing body, Assad will be either in or out. During the course of those talks, he would most likely retain the title and powers of President of the Syrian Arab Republic. Nothing in the Geneva formula requires him to step down in advance of the talks or before their conclusion. Indeed, nothing requires him to step down at any point provided the opposition consents to an ongoing role in the transitional governing body.

Still, Gordon wishes to drop the Geneva formula in favor of a "US-led contact group" that could "explore measures" such as local ceasefires, getting the regime out of "agreed parts of the country," an end to regime air attacks "in exchange for an end to opposition offensives," constitutional reforms, regime-opposition "entities" that could initiate dialogue, eventual elections "in which Assad might or might not be allowed to run," and perhaps safe areas negotiated by the regime and the opposition. Yet what would prevent any of these things being pursued with the Geneva formula still fully in place and intact?

All of these "measures" go to the very heart of the Assad regime's existence and its strategy for staying in power, at least in a part of Syria. It does not barrel bomb to blunt opposition "offensives." It is not interested in handing over agreed parts of Syria. Its attitude toward "constitutional reform" has been well established for decades. It jails people seeking "dialogue." Yet Mr. Gordon counsels trading-in Geneva for a "process" in which he thinks Iran and Russia might join the United States and others in forcing a "compromise" on the Assad regime. Geneva, per se, stands in the way of nothing Mr. Gordon would like to explore.

With Geneva defunct, why would Tehran and Moscow facilitate such a process? According to Gordon, because we would no longer be asking for the immediate departure of Assad. Yet immediate departure is not now and never has been a precondition for political transition negotiations. Gordon also asserts that Iran and Russia have no particular attachment to Assad personally, and that maintaining him in power "is a costly burden to both countries." Yet Iran sees Assad as essential to maintaining its Syria-based link to its Lebanese militia, Hezbollah. Shall we work with Tehran to produce a substitute willing and able to help Hezbollah imprison Lebanon and keep its rockets and missiles trained on Israel? Russia's Vladimir Putin sees Assad as a neon-lighted rebuke to Washington and is now investing heavily in trying to rehabilitate his client—the man who has made Syria safe for the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL)—as an anti-terror bulwark. Should we persist in counting on Putin to be agent for political transition in Syria?

No doubt, President Barack Obama will tell his Russian counterpart—just as Secretary of State John Kerry will tell his Iranian counterpart—that Assad is an asset of incalculable value for ISIL: the gift that keeps on giving. Russia and Iran already know this. They are fine with this. They have been fully witting and supportive of Assad's survival strategy from the beginning: the mass releases of Islamist radicals from prison; the vacuum-creating collective punishment and mass homicide campaigns; the web of economic interactions between the regime and ISIL; the respective military focus of ISIL and Assad on common enemies rather than one another. The President and the Secretary will likely double down on Gordon's point that continued Russian and Iranian backing of Assad "will only perpetuate their costly quagmire and lead to the growing extremism that threatens us all." A similar talking point about making a big mistake was applied to Russia's rape of Ukraine.

There is nothing in the Geneva Final Communique that forbids the external supporters of the various parties to the conflict from pressuring their clients to cease and desist in war crimes and crimes against humanity. There is nothing in that document that prevents external parties from working together to apply pressures on all aimed at general deescalation. There is nothing the P5 agreed to in June 2012 that blocks them from discussing among themselves various creative formulas they might press upon their clients to facilitate the rapid, mutually agreed creation of a transitional governing body. Doing so would unite Syrians under one flag to fight ISIL and other violent extremists while beginning the long march to reform, reconstruction, and reconciliation.

The danger in Philip Gordon's approach is that Iran, Russia, and Assad may see it as an administration trial balloon, one signaling that instead of action soon forthcoming to protect defenseless Syrian civilians from barrel bombs, there is anxious readiness on the part of Washington to ditch the Geneva framework in the hope of currying Russian and Iranian goodwill.

The Geneva framework need not be dropped for Moscow and Tehran to block the ongoing mass murder of Syrian civilians: relentless and remorseless slaughter that voids any prospect of political progress while boosting the prospects of ISIL. On the contrary: US officials should be telling their Russian and Iranian counterparts that if they do not take steps to get Assad out of this ISIL-facilitating mass murder business, the United States will. Doing something beyond talking is essential for any of Philip Gordon's laudable objectives to be achieved.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 04:54 AM

VIDEO: Oblivious #Moscow residents hoping that #Obama will come to his senses & make it nice with #Putin. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EC2l24ks18g …

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 05:00 AM

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putin-chooses-simple-dangerous-plan-in-syria/535510.html

Putin Chooses Simple, Dangerous Plan in Syria

By Vladimir Frolov
Sep. 27 2015 17:42

President Vladimir Putin's Syrian gambit has catapulted the Russian leader to the center of international diplomacy, winning him a much-coveted bilateral meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama.

At a minimum, Putin has ensured that Russia will have a key role in a postwar settlement in Syria, protecting its interests, while creating a situation in which the West might owe him a geopolitical favor.

But whether Moscow could capitalize on these tactical gains depends on Russia's actions on the ground in Syria and its agility in negotiating a viable diplomatic settlement.

Moscow's immediate objective is to shore up Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime from further territorial losses and secure his international recognition as a partner in fighting the Islamic State. The latter in the form of the Russian-drafted United Nations Security Council statement has been blocked by Washington.

Assad's deteriorating position, however, has been due to non-Islamic State rebels from Jaysh al-Fateh and Jaysh al-Islam backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Using Russian airplanes to attack these non-Islamic State forces makes Russia a direct participant in a bloody sectarian war and a target for Sunni jihadi groups while raising the risk of a proxy war with other powers.

Moscow's public language suggests it does not intend to distinguish between non-Islamic State and Islamic State fighters, labeling them all as "terrorists." A Russian-backed Assad offensive to regain control of the Idlib province, now free of the Islamic State, but where non-Islamic State rebels threaten Assad's stronghold in Latakia, would hugely escalate the war causing large civilian casualties and more refugees.

Avoiding such an escalation would require Moscow to limit the airstrikes to strictly Islamic State targets in eastern Syria while forcing Assad to halt devastating barrel bombings of population centers. An intensive diplomatic effort involving Russia, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Iran is required to stop the fighting between Assad and non-Islamic State forces and secure a political transition in which Assad, stripped of all executive power, would remain a party.

Iran and Turkey's latest success at negotiating a UN-backed cease-fire and a no-fly zone in northern Idlib and Zabadani provides a useful template.

Unfortunately, Moscow's body language now signals it is going all in to secure Assad's military victory. It's a simpler plan fraught with debilitating mission creep.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 07:34 AM

Here comes those stupid reoccurring social media comments of Chinese involvement in Syria---interesting that they are reoccurring on a daily basis now in some form or another.

Up to now not a single pushback comment by China who is normally very quick to reject fake reports as they have a rather tight control of their foreign policy and do not allow fake reports to distract or tarnish that FP.

Russian and Chinese Air Forces to Use Hmamiyat Airfields http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-and-chinese-air-forces-to-use-hmamiyat-airfields/ … pic.twitter.com/7scribpjiu

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 07:36 AM

Syrian ground reality this morning with or without Putin and his militay--killing civilians just keeps on.

Good morning" from the Syrian dictator Bashar al-#Assad.
Barrel bombs rain on #Daraya.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0XMRbnLVeg …
pic.twitter.com/QxdFAfeweN

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 07:41 AM

Not a joke--actually stated--

How can I be a gangster if I worked for the KGB?" -- Vladimir Putin, not joking.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 08:04 AM

Unconfirmed--first comment seen on this---

Russian soldiers to be send from Donbas to Syria in October https://twitter.com/zn_ua/status/648406546691571712 …

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 08:12 AM

https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/09/25/russia-s-defense-ministry-officially-announces-that-russian-soldiers-are-not-fighting-in-syria

Russia’s Defense Ministry officially announces that Russian soldiers are not fighting in Syria

15:55, 25 September 2015 RBC

Russia’s Defense Ministry has issued an official statement saying that Russian military personnel deployed in Syria are not participating in the armed conflict. The statement came as a response to Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov’s formal query about Russia’s actions in Syria.

The letter is for internal government use only, and therefore cannot be published, but a Defense Ministry source revealed its contents to the news agency RBC. According to source, it says that Russian soldiers are in Syria in accordance with Russian-Syrian contracts, escorting weapons deliveries and ensuring that the base at Tartus port is operational.

So not participating in the "armed conflict" means Russians are not flying COOTs, Mi-24s, SU30s, SU24/25s, or any drones---not operating intel collection stations, not running Spetsnaz missions and the list goes on.......

New Russian definition of "armed conflict"--a Russian soldier not doing anything but sunning himself on the beaches of Syria.

Taken from the Putin CBS interview-----

Russia will not take part in any field operations on the territory of Syria or in other states." Putin. winking. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50380 …

Begs the question--is he lying since Russian troops have been captured in the Ukraine and are currently fighting in the Ukraine---

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 08:19 AM

Interesting comment and I will follow it up with other comments this week--as this exercise was telling for a number of reasons--the very first one--the size--over 95K participated--secondly a whole series of new weapons and systems were used for the first time in an exercises--for example a fully automated EW system and a new MLRS system.

Looks like @TheStudyofWar also noticed that "Center-2015" was a check of capabilities for operations in #Syria http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/CTP%20ISW%20Putin%20Ushers%20in%20a%20New%20Era%20 of%20Global%20Geopolitics%20%281%29.pdf …

Really worth reading their article.........

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 09:34 AM

Did any commenter/reader here notice that all of the western MSM attention is on what is parked and or not parked on a single airfield in Syria--check the other two--might be an eye opener--Russia has deliberately led the MSM attention to exactly one airfield and one port--why is that?????

Dear news orgs buying Sat Imagery. Stop blowing your money just on Latakia. There are at least 2 more Syrian air bases to explore. Hint hint

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 09:36 AM

Syria #Quneitra Rebels destroyed tank with Metis ATGM on Tall al Ahmar

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.206915&lon=35.865426&z=15&m=b …

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 09:40 AM

Looks like the Israeli military answer to Putin was not long in coming.........So much for deconflicting.........?

Multiple #Israel #IDF rockets targeted Assad’s Muhaires Company, al-Saqri Company, Tal Shahem & Brigade 90; reports of loud explosions

Israel #IDF jets still over #Quneitra, #Syria after carrying out airstrikes on Assad’s Brigade 90, Kom Muhaires & al-Saqri COs

Breaking: Reports Israeli rockets have struck Assad positions in Brigade 90, Nabe' al-Fawar & Kom Muhaires in #Quneitra, #Syria

we get reports it was artillery and not fighter jets

It’s possible, not really clear whether jets were ones to launch rockets or not

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 09:42 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 09:45 AM

Estimates now of at least three possibly more Pantsir-S1s in Syrian---have come in via sealift undetected.

Pantsir-S1 in #Syria via @LuftwaffeAS

"Masked as Syrian AF assets"--so Putin can tell the world "we have no Russian troops fighting in Syria"--just as he told the world "we have no Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine."

RuAF Su-25 maneuvers to land at Hmemeem airport

An-124 Taking off from Hmemeem airport.

SyAA BM-30
BUT they forgot to paint over the Russian airborne markings---

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 09:59 AM

Appears the Russian Syria Express sealift is getting some additional help in transporting troops, equipment and heavy weapons---

Are Russian Northern Fleet's cargoes heading south to support military build up in #Syria? http://7fbtk.blogspot.be/2015/09/yauza-heading-to-black-sea.html …

http://7fbtk.blogspot.be/2015/09/yauza-heading-to-black-sea.html

Since September 10, a vessel named "Yauza" has been making its way from Severomorsk, Russia, to the Turkish Straits, presumably headed for the Black Sea. The day before getting underway, the vessel was at a Severomorsk weapons handling facility (home of the 571st Technical Missile Base), where it was located between 0946 UTC on September 9 and 0456 UTC on September 10. What activity was conducted there is a mystery.

The vessel has made no known port calls since leaving Severomorsk. "Yauza" was noted tracking north through the Turkish Straits today when it unexpectedly turned around between 1222 UTC and 1510 UTC. The vessel continued tracking to the southwest until 1647 UTC when it reached a holding point located ~14 nautical miles east of the Greek Island of Lemnos.
Given the name and departure port, this appears to be the Northern Fleet cargo and personnel vessel "Yauza". If true, its apparent voyage to the Black Sea would be unusual and could be related to the ongoing transfer of Russian military personnel and materiel to Syria.

Amguema-class cargo vessel (Rus: Project 550M special-purpose large naval dry cargo vessel) "Yauza" was built at Kherson Shipyard for the Soviet Navy. It was laid down in April 1974 and joined the Northern Fleet in 1975. In 1988, the vessel was resubordinated to the Ministry of Defense's 12th Main Directorate, which oversees military nuclear safety and security programs. Since then, the vessel had been used to transport cargo between the Russian mainland and Novaya Zemlya.

On October 8, 2012, “Yauza” was relaunched. The vessel commenced post-modernization factory sea trials in June 2014 and was turned back over to the Northern Fleet in May 2015. In July, employees of the 51st Central Design and Technology Institute of Ship Repairs received awards for developing design documentation for the vessel's repairs and modernization.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 10:17 AM

Let's see--Russia, Hezbollah, Iran and Iraq say Assad should and needs to stay in power, France waffles--first he can stay in then he is out immediately, Germany says he stays in, Turkey waffles first yes he stays and then he goes, Australia says he can stay, the US said he has to go and NOW says he can stay as does the UK.

BUT have we heard anything from the anti Assad forces and the Sunni Front States--not a single word.

Maybe Putin and Obama might do well in "asking".

Right now Putin and Obama are both being basically viewed as pro Shia for their support of Assad.

From the start of the revolution, FSA said 2maintained “brotherly cooperation & relationship w/ heroic #ISIS & #AQ”.

http://youtu.be/piN_MNSis1E

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 10:25 AM

Iraq says Russia, Iran, Syria cooperating on security issues in Baghdad http://reut.rs/1PGD2WO via @Reuters

BUT yesterday President Rouhani said their is no cooperation at all—seems he is not in control of his IRGC---SO who is exactly the "proxy" Russia and or Iran or both if you are Syria???

Seems the Iranian President has been lying a tad bit-----

In televised speech, Iraq PM @HaiderAlAbadi says intel cooperation deal w Russia, Syria & Iran months in the making pic.twitter.com/pN11knw5r2

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 10:31 AM

This war criminal is now in Germany. Posing as a "Syrian refugee"
His name Leith Ayman Munshdi. He's not even Syrian. He's Lebanese-Iraqi!

Rumours Jaysh Fath said no more ceasefires with Iranians not in Fua & not anywhere else. "We will continue fighting till liberation"

(Apparently) Egyptian Actor Sherif Moneer says Iranians behind stampede in Mecca "I saw them with my own eyes"—

RUMINT—is stating that shortly before the stampede there were seen six Iranian so called dipolmats—since the stampede—MIA-have not been found.

New on The Hoplite: @Arkenstoneblog takes a closer look at Iran's CQ rifle, the S-5.56. http://armamentresearch.com/a-closer-look-at-irans-cq-rifles/ …

The #Assad air force attacked food stores in the center of #Hesh.
5 civ killed, 10 injured.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnR78FSQ5P0 …

Reports Assad forces using incendiary mortar rounds in Wa'ar, #Homs, #Syria http://youtu.be/MZ3KVsrWQtg

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 10:32 AM

Anything in the Russian Navy that can float and set sail are seemingly headed to Syria----

Russian Navy’s Kashtan class buoy tender KIL-158 crossed Bosphorus southbound. Probably heaviest Russian traffic ever

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 10:46 AM

Russians are in Syria, and Israel returning fire to Syria. "What could possibly go wrong?"https://twitter.com/lummideast/status/648207880219422720 …

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 10:54 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 11:05 AM

BREAKING: Syria talks involving Russia, US, KSA, Iran, Turkey, Egypt may take place in October - Russian Deputy FM Bogdanov

Interesting the Russian foreign ministry announcing this October summit before Putin meets with Obama today

So the meeting is a "maybe"--so if it fails to occur then Russia can blame Obama for not coming?????

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 12:00 PM

Appears that one of the main national German TV media outlets has a totally different opinion to Assad as does Merkel, her deputy and her FM.

Wonder why that is??????

BreakingNews! Unprecedented clarity of language (in DE) in condemning the butcher Assad for his crimes.

Klare Worte zu #Syrien - der ganze Kommentar von ZDF-Korrespondent Hallmann:

http://ly.zdf.de/dHcw/

BTW--Merkel is losing in popularity over the refugee crisis and her handling of Syria and the Ukraine----at lowest point in literally years.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 12:03 PM

Betting a Starbucks of choice here in Berlin if Putin's speech does not have at it's core this speech from him in 2008.

pic.twitter.com/pNhH0eHBHC

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 12:59 PM

More Shia militia "visiting Germany via Greece"---everyone talked about just how IS was infiltrating Europe by the thousands AND now it turns out it's the Syrian and Iraqi Shia--that is a strange turn of events.

So much for defending the Motherland Iran.........

When visiting grandmother in Stuttgart. pic.twitter.com/16udq3haYY

Appears they forgot to clean off this social media accounts and the German security services will also not be checking--all EU IDs must be in biometric form complete with face and fingerprints---and that they did not anticipate??

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 01:06 PM

Russian nuclear sable rattling before UNGA speech--

Live-firing of Iskander-M tactical missile successfully completed in southern Russia

September 28, 15:19 UTC+3

The missile was fired to a distance of 300 kilometers at a target simulating a command centre of a maneuver enemy

© Dmitry Rogulin/TASS

MOSCOW, September 28. /TASS/. Service launch of an Iskander-M missile was successfully performed by personnel from a missile unit of the Eastern Military District at a firing range in Russia’s southern Astrakhan region, spokesman for the military district Alexander Gordeyev said on Monday.

"The missile was fired to a distance of 300 kilometers at a target simulating a command centre of a maneuver enemy. The launch was successful," he said, adding that following the drills the army unit and the Iskander-M missile system would return to the base of their permanent deployment in the Siberian republic of Buryatia.

Iskander tactical ballistic missile systems are capable of hitting both small-size and large-area targets at a distance of up to 500 km to destroy missile and multiple launch rocket systems, long-range artillery guns, aircraft and helicopters at aerodromes, command posts and communications centers.

The Iskander tactical ballistic missile complex includes a launcher, a loader-transporter, a routine maintenance vehicle, a command post vehicle, an information post, an ammunition equipment set and training aids.

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 06:57 PM

REPORTS: #PICS of #Russian fighter jets in #Syria
pic.twitter.com/zrLIATnR7M

Russia's most advanced attack jets - now in Syria:

https://twitter.com/LuftwaffeAS/status/648555699727826944 …
Fresh imagery of Bassel al-Assad airport urgently needed!

Russia flights out of Latakia will impinge on US recon flights over #Syria

RuAF An-124 RA-82035 just arrived in Latakia. think we're at "fifty" flights since Sep 7 not "fifteen" like some "military source told @AFP"

I'd say a couple of dozen more by IL-76s, and the number is growing rapidly.

That's your estimate for An-124 flights only, right?

agree, i'm tracking the heavy An-124 cargo planes only

RuAF An-124 RA-82035 just returned to Krymsk now. It took off from Latakia around 02:00UTC together with RA-82039

RuAF Su-24 & Su-25 spotted over Jableh

Said to be an airliner/transporter accompanied with 5 fighters crossing over Hama country side

Syrian Special Forces spotted with British Accuracy International AWM sniper rifles http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2015/09/syrian-special-forces-spotted-with.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-28-2015, 07:19 PM

Would say these Russian air lift figures are accurate as three different individuals are tracking their activity from the beginning.

RuAF An-124 RA-82035 just arrived in Latakia. think we're at "fifty" flights since Sep 7 not "fifteen" like some "military source told @AFP"

I'd say a couple of dozen more by IL-76s, and the number is growing rapidly.

That's your estimate for An-124 flights only, right?

agree, i'm tracking the heavy An-124 cargo planes only

RuAF An-124 RA-82035 just returned to Krymsk now. It took off from Latakia around 02:00UTC together with RA-82039

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 06:24 AM

Betting a Starbucks of choice here in Berlin if Putin's speech does not have at it's core this speech from him in 2008.

pic.twitter.com/pNhH0eHBHC

At UN Putin offered no ideas for resolving Syria or IS problems or that matter the Ukraine.

After reading his entire text-----

Only replayed strident anti-US, anti-Western themes--EXACTLY the same themes of his speech in 2008 and remember 2008 was the year that Russia started it's aggression against Georgia and then onwards and upwards until the invasion Ukraine and now his Syrian adventures.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 07:16 AM

Hurmor---

Russia's KGB trained Saddam's secret police who are now members of ISIS. Thus @CIA created ISIS.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 07:41 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 07:46 AM

From Russian opinion poll----

Should RU provide technical-expert support to Syria: 43% YES, 41% NO

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:02 AM

Appears the US air strike abilities on IS are far more effective THAN what Putin is trying to "sell" both his own population and the world.

300 per week is not small change if that is in fact more than what is flowing into the ME for IS during the same week---degrading slowly but steadily and giving the ground forces space to defend.

Well worth the reading in the face of the number if Putin comments on the ineffectiveness of the US efforts----he has written a number of good articles in the past from the Ukraine front lines---he has also written one on the A10 pilots working against IS as well.

"The fog of war is thick." My latest piece:

Inside the US Air War Against #ISIS

http://dailysignal.com/2015/09/28/inside-the-us-air-war-against-isis/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:12 AM

MAJOR Russian military deployment of highly modern aircraft--WHY when IS has not a single plane, flying carpet nor an AF???

Russia's participation in the Syrian War, the Su-34 'Fullback' has arrived http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2015/09/russias-participation-in-syrian-war-su.html …

The arrival of the Su-34 'Fullback' fighter bomber to Syria could be seen as imminent since the initial deployment of the first combat assets to Syria, and has now finally confirmed to have occurred in recent days. Six Su-34s are now believed to have joined the four Su-30SMs, twelve Su-24M2s and twelve Su-25s already present at Hmeemeem/Bassel al-Assad IAP, Lattakia Governorate.

In addition to thirty-four combat aircraft, up to twenty Mi-17s and Mi-24/35s, two Il-20s and at least three types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are now deployed in Syria. Especially the UAVs have been active in flying reconnaissance sorties over Idlib Governorate, indubitably soon to be if not already joined by the electronic intelligence (ELINT) configured Il-20s. Although already sighted over Idlib, the Su-24M2s have so far refrained from engaging rebel positions. The twelve Su-25s are currently being assembled and are busy with test flights after their delivery by An-124 strategic airlifters just a week ago.

The Su-34s on the other hand managed to reach Hmeemeem/Bassel al-Assad IAP on their power. The two examples seen below, both carrying a centreline drop tank allowing for extended range are believed to have been part of the contignent deployed to Syria. Both aircraft were photographed while flying over Mozdok on their way to Syria via Georgian, Armenian, Iranian and Iraqi airspace.

Another image, this time from Syria, shows what looks like six fighter-bombers alongside an airliner over Idlib or Hama Governorate. The airliner appears to be a Russian Air Force (RuAF) Tu-154, likely used for escorting the six Su-34s on their way to Hmeemeem/Bassel al-Assad IAP.

Designed to deliver a wide range of both guided and unguided munitions, the Su-34 will provide the Russian expeditionary force with an excellent fighter-bomber with the range and capabilities to strike any target anywhere in Syria. In fact, the sheer quality of the Sukhoi force currently present in Syria is such an improvement over the assets currently available to the Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) that it could be said the regime's aerial capabilities have entered another league entirely.

As construction works at Hmeemeem/Bassel al-Assad IAP continues and UAVs and Il-20s are meanwhile busy collecting data on the strength and location of rebel positions in Idlib Governorate, the RuAF's aerial assets are being prepared for their first sorties, and it seems that a first move by the Russian expeditionary force is just a matter of time.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:33 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:37 AM

Syria #Quneitra looks like old #Russian WW-2 tank
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtTAYaXsZig …

Syria #Quneitra Moment when Rebels storm secret bunkers& tunnel-trench system https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14UB_CGh-K0 …

Syria #Quneitra Rebels shelling #SAA brigade 90 base
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-PmOT5A8mw …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKEoykpN1tI …
youtube.com/watch?v=e_R0TSO3ggE …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUAXqpmnQxk …

Syria #Quneitra Images from captured #SAA base near Trinjeh
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.231652&lon=35.850105&z=14&m=b …

Syria #Quneitra Jaish al Fatah in south claim besiege #SAA Battalion 120

Important to keep in the back of the mind--from June 2015---

Very Interesting. 56% of #ISIS battles are against Syrian Rebels. 29% against Kurds. 12% against Regime Forces #Syria

What is even more interesting that while yesterday at the UNGA Putin referred to IS BUT in the same exact breath he used the next term "and other terrorists".

SO is he intent on destroying ALL anti-Assad forces thus making it virtually impossible to have Assad negotiate with any remaining "moderate forces" as Putin describes them--NOT exactly sure who would be left and there is virtually no "moderate forces" anywhere in Syria or Iraq?????

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:40 AM

Syrian Presidency ‏@Presidency_Sy · Sep 16
President #Bashar al-Assad to Russian media: You cannot be with and against #terrorism at the same time.

Unless you are the Syrian regime, in which case it has shaped your survival strategy for decades.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:42 AM

Humor----

On page 59 of my #Stasi manual it states : When government spokesman says "Things are fluid" this means "We are losing"

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:43 AM

Why do civilians leave #Syria?

Gov occupied their town 43%
Gov destroyed their home 32%

Turkey refugee camp survey
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/09/28/in-two-charts-this-is-what-refugees-say-about-why-they-are-leaving-syria-now/ …

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:45 AM

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:58 AM

From Russian opinion poll----

Should RU provide technical-expert support to Syria: 43% YES, 41% NO

Poll: Russians oppose sending troops to Syria
http://www.unian.info/world/1137187-poll-russians-oppose-sending-troops-to-syria.html … pic.twitter.com/DNLSkEEkLa

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 10:05 AM

Putin and his military are seriously intent on creating a number of A2AD bubbles around Europe and the Med that would negate NATO airpower and shift the air space denial factor to the Russian point of view--totally limiting NATO's options to defend the Baltics, Georgia, Romania and Bulgaria.

Plain and simple--it is just that Obama and his entire NSC seems to fail to see that taking shape????

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/09/28/nato-general-worried-russian-military-build-syria/73002834/

NATO General Worried About Russian Military Build-Up In Syria

Agence France-Presse 7:30 p.m. EDT September 28, 2015

Gen. Philip Breedlove

WASHINGTON — NATO Gen. Philip Breedlove expressed concern Monday about the strength of Russia's military build-up in northwestern Syria and the apparent creation of a defensive "bubble" in the Mediterranean.

The supreme allied commander in Europe for the 28-member military alliance said Russia had sent advanced weaponry beyond what is needed to fight the Islamic State group — meaning the hardware is to protect Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"We see some very sophisticated air defense systems going into these airfields. We see some very sophisticated air-to-air aircraft going into these airfields," Breedlove told an audience at the German Marshall Fund in Washington.

"I have not seen (the Islamic State) flying any airplanes that require sophisticated air-to-air capabilities."

The Pentagon says Russia has sent at least 500 troops, along with fighter jets, artillery units, tanks and other military hardware to an airbase in the Latakia region on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

Breedlove suggested the weaponry included SA15 and SA22 surface-to-air missile defense systems, used to take down enemy planes.

"I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA15s or SA22s," he said, using an alternative acronym for the IS group.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Barack Obama sparred over the crisis in Syria in dueling UN speeches on Monday, each accusing the other of fueling the carnage.

The two leaders were due to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly later.

Breedlove said Russia was trying to protect Assad's regime "against those that are putting pressure on" it.

Using military jargon, he warned of Russia forming an "A2AD" (Anti-Access Area-Denial) exclusion zone.

"It's one of the things we are beginning to watch (them) develop in the northeast Mediterranean as we see these very capable air defense capabilities beginning to show up in Syria," Breedlove said.

"We are a little worried about another A2AD bubble being created in the eastern Mediterranean."

He noted Russia already had created such a zone in the Black Sea, thanks to missile batteries sent to Crimea after its annexation by Russian forces.

They are also using the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad to create a bubble over the Baltic, he said.

Breedlove's comments come as the West frets over Russia's intentions in Syria and in eastern Ukraine, where it is supporting pro-Moscow rebels in an ongoing conflict.

"Russia very much wants to be seen as an equal on the world stage, a great power on the world stage," he said.

Moscow "wants to maintain warm water ports and airfield capabilities in the eastern Mediterranean and they saw that possibly being challenged on the ground by those opposing the Assad regime."

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 10:22 AM

Somehow Putin seems to have forgotten to include the Ukraine and Syria in this UNGA statement yesterday as posted by a Russian Ambassador.

Alexander Yakovenko ‏@Amb_Yakovenko ·
Putin to UN: sovereignty means freedom, every person and every state being free to choose their future.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 10:27 AM

Putin's "grand coalition" failed to materialize at the UNGA--now the reality sets in--- in Moscow and Syria.

http://tass.ru/en/world/824480

Broad coalition against Islamic State hardly possible now — expert

September 29, 12:26 UTC+3

The main task now is to coordinate actions, exchange information, agree on informing each other about each other’s actions


MOSCOW, September 29. /TASS/. Broad coalition for fighting against the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization is hardly possible now, and exchanging information and coordinating actions should be on top of the agenda at the current stage, Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Naumkin told a press conference in TASS on Tuesday.

"Full-fledged coalition is hardly possible today," Naumkin said. "However, there are common interests, exchange of information, and this is important. Not many people want IS to exist," he noted.

"The main task now is to coordinate actions, exchange information, agree on informing each other about each other’s actions," Naumkin explained. The expert said "it is important to involve other interested countries that also face a terrorist threat." Among such countries are India, China, Pakistan and Egypt.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 10:35 AM

Russia to arm the Kurds? This general makes explicit what Putin implied yesterday, #Kurds need help fighting ISIS

http://rbth.com/news/2015/09/29/information_center_in_baghdad_needs_coordination_s tructure_syrian_army_n_49633.html …

SO Russia has cleared this with the Turks..................?????

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 10:40 AM

Deepening Russian involvement in Iraq complicates U.S. airstrikes on Islamic State

http://on.wsj.com/1ODM4GK pic.twitter.com/6mHjOF6LeP

Seems that Russian UAV flights over Iraq would limit US UAV targeting flights for the strike fighters and the Us would have to limit the already limited intelligence sharing even further.

THEN maybe what the article is saying is that the US should pull out and let the Iraqi's sink or swim on the Russian/Iranian watch.

Would save the US taxpayers a ton of money------let the Russians burn through even more of their disappearing foreign currency assets on top of the estimated 20M USD per day for their Ukrainian operations.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 12:04 PM

I had previously posted here a comment on the reflagging of the Russian SU24/25s that were flown in by Russian pilots --meaning they have been covered by camouflage nets and are being repainted in Syrian AF colors--so will Russian pilots be flying Syrian flagged aircraft to avoid being seen "as Russians fighting in Syria which Putin has claimed they are not"?????

Russia markings removed on Su-24 deployed to #Latakia -subterfuge raises possibility of transfer to #Syria Air Force

First confirmed footage of #Russia new airbase at #Latakia #Syria courtesy of @MYTF1News http://lci.tf1.fr/monde/moyen-orient/exclu-20h-de-tf1-les-premieres-images-des-avions-russes-en-syrie-8663007.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 12:13 PM

US intel has observed RuAF long-range bombers redeploying to airfields in southern Russia:
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/28/politics/russia-syria-military-airstrikes-isis/index.html …

Who will fly the first strike sortie of the campaign, Tu-22s from Mozdok or tactical aircraft from Lattakia? We'll see pretty soon, I think.

The escort aircraft RA-85155 for the six SU-34s made an unusual two full tight race track circles prior to landing.

RA-85155 came on an exceptionally short fligtpath today and look what they did at the landing

Prob removal of #Russia markings on less transferrable Su-30SM #Latakia #Syria supts ident concealment not transfer
pic.twitter.com/LtPUJMfLCz

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 12:56 PM

Western MSM media has finally awoken to the social media information on the Russian Syrian Express sealift operation supplying Syria. Only something like three weeks late in waking up.

Russia establishes seaborne lifeline for Syrian allies http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0RT11H20150929?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter …

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 01:29 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 01:42 PM

LuftwaffeAS @LuftwaffeAS

Providing #1 is a BM-30...what is #2?
I luckily found the location, they are in the stadium of Al-Qerdaha pic.twitter.com/7wQEcapN6I

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 03:50 PM

And Russia is Muslim friendly???? What the heck are "preventive talks".

Rights activists say Muslims in Crimea being invited for 'preventive talks' with FSB | Права человека в России http://hro.org/node/23104

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 04:07 PM

Dempsey: "The fight against ISIL has reached a phase that I would call tactically stalemated"

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/general-dempsey-nato-has-taken-deterrence-for-granted … pic.twitter.com/7kXDHG0etO

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 05:59 PM

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/29/inside-the-isis-blueprint-for-winning.html
09.29.151:00 AM ET

Inside the ISIS Blueprint for Winning

Back in 2010, ISIS was on the downswing. The terrorist group then published a think tank-like pamphlet on how to get a country of its own.

Despite the success to come, the auguries boded ill for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi when he assumed leadership of the Islamic State in May 2010. American and Iraqi troops had killed his predecessor while he was at home, which meant the Islamic State had been penetrated by its enemies. Many of the group’s leaders had met similar fates at American hands. In response, the Islamic State shifted to a strategy of clandestine terrorism to cope with the setbacks but longed to fight in the open again as an insurgent group. An Islamic state is nothing if it has no land.

On the new emir’s desk was a plan to turn things around. Between December 2009 and January 2010, Iraqi jihadists had circulated a “Strategic Plan for Reinforcing the Political Position of the Islamic State of Iraq.” The document has the look and feel of a DC think tank report, with analysis and recommendations for policy makers. Think pieces and after-action reports are common in the jihadist movement, but it was unusual to see jihadists openly criticize the Islamic State. The criticism was evidence of how far the group had fallen. The tempo of the Islamic State’s attacks was nowhere near its height in early 2007, and the group held no land.

The strategy paper blamed the Islamic State’s fall on a “dirty war” waged by its American adversaries, who used “awakened” Sunni tribes against it. “When the Islamic State was at the pinnacle of its power and influence, [the Americans] bombed markets, public places, and mosques, and they killed the opponents of the State, so that the mujahids were blamed. On account of things like this, we saw the influence of the Islamic State fade and disappear and the apostate Awakenings spread.”

The delusions continued. The authors of the paper spun online videos of Americans trying to disarm improvised explosive devices (IEDs) as videos of Americans planting the devices and inadvertently blowing themselves up. The Islamic State did not provoke the Sunni tribes by oppressing them; rather, the jihadists’ enemies cleverly turned tribal leaders against the jihadists. Young men in the tribes supported the Americans only for money and for pride, styling themselves as defenders of their people.

The Islamic State has fallen, the authors acknowledged, but it will return just as the Taliban returned in Afghanistan after its defeat at the hands of the Americans. The American withdrawal from Iraq would be the time to act. “When the Americans withdraw within two years… the situation will be strongest politically and militarily for the Islamic plan to prepare to completely seize the reins of control over all Iraq.” But the authors recognized that other factions in Iraq were preparing to do the same.

The authors recommended several ways to overcome the other factions and control Iraq. Uniting them behind the “jihadist program” of the Islamic State was at the top of their list. “It is not about names and titles the Muslims would strive for. Aiding [the program] is a victory for the people of Islam and not a victory for a group, or a title, or a name.” Merely fighting the other factions without a goal would be “stupid.”

Militarily, the authors contended it would be a waste of time to focus on attacking the American forces in Iraq since they were leaving; rather, the jihadists should train their fire on the Iraqi military and police, whom the Americans hoped would continue to pacify the country for them once they left. By targeting them, the jihadists would instill fear in the hearts of potential recruits. They should focus in particular on the very few units that were capable of fight- ing against the jihadists.

Attacking government troops would also force them to abandon their bases in regions of the country where they were weak. That would open up security vacuums and drain the government’s resources when it fought to protect its remaining bases. The jihadists could exploit these vacuums by seizing the territory and any equipment or infrastructure that was left behind. “Make them always preoccupied with internal problems,” wrote the authors, quoting ancient China’s preeminent military strategist Sun Tzu.

Readers might find it odd that religious zealots who hate nonbelievers would quote Sun Tzu. But the practice is common, evidence of a pragmatic streak among some jihadists. In the early 2000s, for example, jihadists celebrated the strategic insight of Abu Ubayd al- Qurashi, an anonymous author who quoted dozens of non-Muslim strategists in his magazine column, “Strategic Studies.” Among others, Qurashi cited Robert Taber’s history of guerrilla campaigns, War of the Flea; William Lind’s writings on fourth-generation warfare; the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz; and the Communist revolutionary Mao Zedong. The authors of the “Strategic Plan” were carrying on that tradition.

The authors assumed guerrilla tactics would weaken the Iraqi government. But they also believed the jihadists could not establish their own state without co-opting the Sunni tribes. To do so, the authors advised the Islamic State to copy what the United States had done: give money and weapons to Sunni tribal leaders who were angry with the Islamic State. Doing so had reinforced the tribal leaders’ authority and bought the temporary allegiance of their young men.

The authors admitted that “the idea to recruit the tribes to eliminate the mujahids was a clever, bold idea and will be used by any occupier in the future because they make hard work easy for the occupier, just as they provide protection against the attacks of the mujahids.” But the authors were sure the tribes would rather receive money and weapons from fellow Muslims than from foreign occupiers who disrespected their religion or promoted thugs as tribal leaders. The mujahids should follow the American blueprint of creating tribal councils and militias they can work with, but do it better. The mujahids would be more respectful of local religious practice and power structures, and they could finance the endeavor with captured booty.71 As we will see, the jihadists’ respect for religious sensitivities and power structures was sometimes more theory than practice.

Uniting the jihadists behind a single program, intimidating Iraqi security forces, and co-opting the Sunni tribes would not be enough, asserted the authors. The jihadists also needed a “political symbol” or “avatar.” Several things go into the making of such a symbol: the greatness of his sacrifices, his high morals, and his evenhandedness. The head of the Islamic State at the time, Abu Umar al-Baghdadi, had achieved symbolic status. But the authors worried that none of his deputies was high profile enough to fill his symbolic shoes if he died (which happened a few months later).

In concluding their think piece, the authors stressed that jihadists have to instill confidence in those whom they rule. They could do this by protecting the people in lands they control and making them prosper, seeing to the needs of local governors and soldiers, selecting good executives and judges, ruling by Islamic law, implementing the hudud punishments stipulated in Islamic scripture, and distributing money from the treasury. Since the international media is biased against the jihadists, they said, the jihadists would need a media strategy to make sure their good works were known. The jihadists should also consider allying themselves with their opponents when they face a common enemy, just as the Prophet allied with the Jews against the pagans when they attacked him in Medina.

Blueprint in hand, the Islamic State was prepared for a comeback.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 07:32 PM

1 russian volunteer martyred in Syria driving on a mine.Norman-Strelkov era.

One killed (#JN Emir) and 2 wounded from #Ahrar in reef #Idlib due to an isolated clash that has been solved now. No consequences. #Syria.

Militia in #Iraq frees hostages from #Turkey as part of #Iran-brokered ceasefire in #Syria https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb0Eqmt8jRY … Complex conflict? Never.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 07:42 PM

http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/putin-cant-save-assad-its-far-too-late-for-that#full

Putin can’t save Assad, it’s far too late for that

Hassan Hassan

September 28, 2015

In August 2012, Bashar Al Assad mocked the string of defections from the Syrian army as “a self-cleansing process” that would strengthen the country. Almost exactly three years later, Mr Al Assad gave a speech in which he made a striking confession that the army was seriously lacking troops.

“There is a lack of manpower,” he said in a speech in July. “Everything is available for the army, but there is a shortage in manpower. That does not mean we can talk about collapse. We will resist.”

A month later, news emerged of a Russian military build-up in Latakia. The deployment of Russian forces and equipment follows a noticeable deterioration in the army’s ability to stand its ground amid attacks by the rebels in different parts of the country. In Idlib, anti-government forces claimed back-to-back victories that left the regime’s heartlands in central and western Syria exposed for the first time since the conflict began. Similar gains were made by the rebels in the south and by ISIL in the central hinterlands such as Palmyra and Al Qariatayn in Homs.

Even within its support base, the regime suffered challenges. Many in Sweida objected to the deployment of their young men in conflict zones outside their province. Mounting agitation in Sweida forced the regime to allow Druze soldiers to fight in their areas, a remarkable concession. Draft-dodgers among Alawites added to the regime’s unease.

All the while Hizbollah and Iran supplied the regime with massive resources and elite forces to prevent its collapse. Dogmatic foreign fighters – from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – fought alongside the regime in key areas such as Damascus, Aleppo and near the Lebanese border.

Despite the tremendous and consistent support provided by Damascus’s allies, which contrasts sharply with the confused and divided positions of the rebels’ putative backers, the regime has retreated and shown signs of weakness that apparently necessitated a Russian intervention.

Given this reality, could Moscow save the Assad regime? What more could Russian manpower and equipment do to turn the tide in favour of Mr Al Assad? The answer is that the Russian intervention will be more successful than many like to think. But it will also be too limited to turn the tables.

Russian involvement will revamp and bolster the Syrian army. In addition to weapons and logistics, Russian forces will work closely with the army’s elite divisions, such as the 4th Armoured Division, to upgrade battalions and paramilitary forces and to fortify strategic territories from Damascus to the coastal region.

This will require technical expertise and close supervision to compensate for the defection of experienced low and mid-level officers. One of the reasons the army has suffered defeats since April is the apparent focus on providing resources to the paramilitary forces rather than to the army. Even so, these informal militias are not yet ready to take the place of the army. The Russians might professionalise such militias or at least better link them up to the elite army divisions.

Also, the Russian presence will enable the army to respond quickly and effectively to surprise attacks. Russians fighting alongside the regime will also boost the morale of Assad supporters, many of whom have fled the country or evaded conscription. Additionally, the Russian deployment will deter any moves by regional countries to intervene in Syria, including through the establishment of ad hoc safe zones.

The Russians will help the regime to secure and fortify its bases, but not to claw back lost territories. The problem for the regime is not firepower but ground forces capable of pushing back incessant rebel attacks, something that Hizbollah and Iranian fighters are better equipped to provide in the Syrian terrain. Hizbollah has made successive gains against the rebels in some areas but it also suffered defeats or impasse, including in areas where it has a strategic depth, notably near the Lebanese border. A Hizbollah-led three-month offensive in Zabadani, for example, failed to clear a few hundred rebel fighters, compelling Iran to negotiate a truce with the militants.

The idea that Russian fighters will enable the regime to reclaim territory is a fantasy. Russia also has little to offer against ISIL in eastern Syria, except perhaps to reinforce three airbases under attack by ISIL in Deir Ezzor, Aleppo and Homs. Moscow will bolster the regime’s capabilities to defend itself in key towns and cities, but nothing more.

Western officials are therefore greatly misguided to signal a softening towards Mr Al Assad in the wake of the Russian intervention. They should recognise they are fast losing any shred of credibility among the opposition.

The Russian intervention and the West’s overtures will lead to a far more complex situation. Foreign and local extremists will be galvanised to fight against a familiar foe, as they liken Russia in Syria to the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. When the regime’s supporters find that even Russia cannot dramatically turn the tide in favour of the regime, that will probably lead to a new wave of demoralised soldiers. And western countries, which claim to support the opposition’s cause, will have lost any leverage they may now have to play any effective role.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 07:58 PM

Russian eastern Ukraine fighting techniques being seen now in Syria.

Russian accurate night time artillery and MLRS shellings--exact copy of Donbas tactics-----

Russians bombing the Syrian opposition not ISIS.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article4570333.ece … pic.twitter.com/uRSck93JCb

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 08:23 PM

Syria: footage of Ahrar al-Sham rebels storming Mazrat al-Amal in #Quneitra province

https://youtu.be/xY47FyIsKcA pic.twitter.com/RHdNEOKZNA

FSA fired 3 TOWs during 4th Battalion offensive in #Qunitera blown a Shilka & 2 othr targets
https://youtu.be/Apb7z9pNKlg pic.twitter.com/Lo09RGqxz8

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 08:28 PM

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 08:34 PM

82039 took off from Latakia / following numbers code was passed by Russian station 550 902 841 192 622 886 746 714 476

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 08:45 PM

Iranian general suggests Hajj tragedy orchestrated by Israel and Saudi

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-general-suggests-saudi-tragedies-orchestrated-by-israel/ …

The #FSA got kind of - *realistic*, when it comes to firing at #Assad's helis ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VDY0qlcnUs …
#Quneitra pic.twitter.com/litWTtVMnY

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:04 PM

Russia is trying to coax the US into sharing intel with Iraq, Iran & Syria in Baghdad
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-trying-to-coax-the-us-into-sharing-intel-with-iraq-iran-and-syria-in-baghdad-2015-9 …

Reminder: US had intel sharing with USSR during WWII, run thru OSS; @ the same time, Soviet agents penetrated virtually every agency in USG.

Pentagon Scrambling to Know What U.S. Secrets #Iraq Tells #Russia http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/09/pentagon-scrambling-know-what-us-secrets-iraq-tells-russia/122372/ …

Russia, #Syria partnership hub in #Iraq catches US by surprise https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-syrian-partnership-poses-a-new-challenge-for-us-in-iraq/2015/09/28/b1190982-65ee-11e5-9223-70cb36460919_story.html …

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:12 PM

VIDEO Images of #Russia(n) troops and equipment in operation in #Syria

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_c3HU6MTx8 … pic.twitter.com/i8V8H5GAL9

Footage
Interesting 4-turboprop-engine "Russian" airplane over northern #Homs province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qwNY9GFXp8 … pic.twitter.com/yOCYDtlt8o

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:24 PM

Russia forgot to ask the Sunni Front Line countries for their opinion in their move into Syria ------remember it was in fact the Russian FM who called the KSA FM a "blooming idiot" in mild form----

Saudi Arabia is in no mood to submit to #Russia's pressure - FM Al-Jubair says #Assad must step down or face "military option."

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:36 PM

Russian Syrian Express is pressing any ship into Syria service-----

New Russian Logistics/Repair Ship Loaded w "Anti-Terror" Soldiers Headed From Crimea To Syria

http://bit.ly/1VpjjMV pic.twitter.com/RJz7VX5f4d

Russia's Interfax news agency reports that they have been told by the Headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet that one of their vessels, PM-56 - a logistics and repair vessel, is to set sail to Tartus in Syria with an "anti-terror group" on board.

The group is made up of soldiers from an independent brigade of Naval Infantry from the Black Sea Fleet. They are officially tasked with defending the vessel during its journey and stay in the Syrian port. However, given that the Kremlin has branded its military intervention, which appears aimed at protecting the Assad regime, as an anti-terrorist campaign against ISIS, the marines' actual mission may be more aggressive than that presented to reporters.

PM-56 is due to leave harbor in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, on October 1.

OUTLAW 09

09-29-2015, 09:37 PM

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-in-syria-journalists-take-video-from-inside-russian-airbase-in-latakia/#10176
pic.twitter.com/xCwe5cAWEU

Disagreements Between Iranian Militia Leaders And Assad Commanders Near Russia's Bases In Latakia?

20:40 (GMT)

Al Aan TV, a satellite station based in United Arab Emirates, posted a story on Sunday which suggests there are major disagreements between Iranian and Syrian regime commanders over fighting which took place recently in northwestern Hama province, on the Al Ghab plain which borders Hama, Idlib, and the mountains east of Latakia -- the regime's stronghold. The Interpreter has translated some excerpts:

AlaanTV received information that there are major disagreements between Iranian militia leaders and the regime’s senior officers in Damascus and Hama, according to a regime general who collaborates with the rebels.

He stressed that the disagreements are due to regime forces abandoning all areas captured by Shiite fighters in battles against the rebels, which clearly manifested in the last battles of Sahil Al Ghab.

Pro-regime areas in the western countryside of Hama have witnessed massive security lawlessness for a month now. [Assad] regime security forces no longer have any role in imposing their authority, while weapons are widespread among everyone, even among children under the age of ten, according to activists.

Since the beginning of last week, the regime sent troops from the Fourth Division led by Maher al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s brother, to support and strengthen the militias fighting in Sahil Al Ghab against the rebels. 600 Iranian fighters were sent also for support 14 days ago according to an activist.

This is critical for several key reasons. The fighting in the Al Ghab plain (map) is west of Ma'arat al Nouman and about 40 kilometers east of a Russia's bases in Latakia. Ma'arat al Nouman, an important crossroads which we described late last week, has recently been hammered by Assad aircraft:

The deploying of the 4th Armored Division is also potentially massively important. This unit is considered one of Assad's most elite, best equipped, and most loyal units, but it has, for the most part, been held in reserve near Damascus for much of the duration of the war, there to defend the capital against rebel threats and disloyal soldiers. If the 4th Division cannot turn things around in the area, Russian troops and aircraft can easily be used as support. However, if that still does not reverse the tide of battle, Bashar al Assad and the Russian forces which support him could have a fight for survival on their hands earlier than anyone anticipated.

To put things in a wider perspective, let's look at this map made by the Institute for the Study of War:

The green numbers on this map are known locations of Russian military positions. The fighting in question is perhaps less than 18 kilometers east of #4 , on the edge of rebel-controlled territory. Clearly, this is an area where Assad cannot afford to have the rebels advance.

We've also seen a great deal of tension between Assad's commanders and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps who are, by many accounts, calling all the shots now in Syria. This has led to the execution of certain Syrian commanders who felt that Iran was exerting too much influence over the country, and particularly over the battlefield at this same location.

Again, with few signs that ISIS has won any significant territory or poses a new significant threat to the Assad regime, it's clear that the rebel advance on Latakia, not any other reason, is the prime motivation for the deployment of Russian jets and soldiers.