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davidbfpo
12-31-2014, 11:13 PM
Time for a new thread as 2015 arrives and Syrians face a gloomy future as their civil war drags on - with even more non-Syrians actors joining in.

The title is adapted from my last post on the previous thread, which I now repeat.

Professor Joshua Landis, a US academic and IIRC sometimes criticised here, has a broad end of 2014 review:http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/yea...ecember-2014/? (http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/year-end-predictions-analysis-joshua-landis-28-december-2014/?)

He opens with:
Syria will become increasingly fragmented in 2015. The Somalia-ization of the country is inevitable so long as the international community degrades all centers of power in Syria and the opposition fails to unite.

There are a number of threads on Syria, with the caveat that recent events in Iraq have reduced the relevance of national borders. Seven of these old threads have been closed, exceptions have been made for the Turkish territory inside Syria and those relating to the Kurds.

davidbfpo
01-02-2015, 03:53 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6TS0XPCcAAhrzQ.jpg

January 2014

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6TS0XPCcAAhrzQ.jpg

January 2015

The images are from a Dutch analyst via Twitter. Or for the latest map:http://pietervanostaeyen.wordpress.com/2014/12/16/syria-map-update-dd-december-16-2014/

OUTLAW 09
01-03-2015, 03:59 PM
Fierce clashes near Fleita are still happening now as we speak between #Hezbollah and #JAN right now following #JAN advancements #Syria #FSA

#Urgent: Huge advancements in Qalamoun mountains as Jabhat Al Nusra take control of Al Masroob near Fleita. Huge #Hezbollah losses reported.

NEW MAP: Situation in [ #SheikhMaskin - #Izzra' ] axis | #Daraa Province. January 2, 2015.
pic.twitter.com/djJuxDDQSz

#JN| Mujahideen took control over Al Masrub point, belonging to the Iranian Hizbollat #Qalamoon
pic.twitter.com/fjtMCE5xsT"

davidbfpo
01-10-2015, 07:49 PM
A Der Spiegel story that could make the Syrian civil war even more fraught. Has the regime got nukes? Nukes guarded by Hizbollah close to the Lebanese border too. ISIS offered the IAEA an inspection visit to Kibar, the site the IDF hit in 2007 near Deir al-Zor.


For years, it was thought that Israel had destroyed Syria's nuclear weapons capability with its 2007 raid on the Kibar complex. Not so. New intelligence suggests that Bashar al-Assad is still trying to built the bomb. And he may be getting help from North Korea and Iran.
Link:http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/evidence-points-to-syria-still-working-on-a-nuclear-weapon-a-1012209.html

davidbfpo
01-11-2015, 08:29 PM
A riposte that ends with:
Perhaps, the most compelling evidence that casts doubt on Spiegel (http://www.csmonitor.com/csmlists/topic/Spiegel+Inc.)'s claim is the fact the site continues to exist and has not met the same fate as its alleged predecessor in an Israeli air strike seven years ago in north east Syria.
Link:http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2015/0111/Experts-cast-doubt-on-Spiegel-claim-of-Syrian-nuclear-facility

davidbfpo
01-12-2015, 09:54 PM
Now a Syrian journalist adds his commentary, aided by some photos of the Kibar facility - with underground water storage tanks intact:http://tahrirsouri.net/2015/01/12/analysis-a-closer-look-at-syrias-nuclear-programme-reveals-new-mysteries/

davidbfpo
01-15-2015, 07:55 PM
The Orynx blog has a long update on the Syrian Arab Air Force, in particular how it manges - with a lot of Russian support - to fly:http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/the-syrian-arab-air-force-beware-of-its.html

I like maps, although I thought Deir ez Zor had fallen recently to ISIS.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ld7OhMiUIv4/VAQPhToq1qI/AAAAAAAADG4/G-7gpoPu3Ig/s1600/SYAAF%2BAFB%2BMAP-REV04.jpg

Jedburgh
01-16-2015, 03:26 AM
That lump of conjecture and speculation is about as valid as the info on the mobile BW labs fed to the US by Chalabi.

OUTLAW 09
01-16-2015, 01:34 PM
That lump of conjecture and speculation is about as valid as the info on the mobile BW labs fed to the US by Chalabi.

Usually the German press tends to vet their articles far better than most of the western media and have been connected into that region far longer than most of the western media which has pulled out many of their better reporters.

BTW the labs were actually discredited by initially some in the media as they were being released but no one if I remember correctly wanted to directly challenge the US government as that would not have been a career enhancer at that time and space in the US.

BTW just as the US press does not currently challenge the WH on a distinct lack of a Syrian strategy if anyone noticed lately or have they forgotten the red line on the use of chemical weapons against civilians which is still going on and is not being reported much these days by our press.

Just a thought.

CrowBat
01-19-2015, 08:26 AM
That lump of conjecture and speculation is about as valid as the info on the mobile BW labs fed to the US by Chalabi.
x10


Usually the German press tends to vet their articles far better than most of the western media and have been connected into that region far longer than most of the western media which has pulled out many of their better reporters.... if 'vetting' means that Der Spiegel _always_ had a very clear agenda _pro specific party_ in the Middle East, then I'm in agreement, and that 1000%.

Otherwise, they're 'just a little bit less sensationalist' than most of the other media - and this comes from somebody who attempted to work with them (and gave up when finding out a) how sensationalist they actually are, and b) how much of what they do is 'vetted' in interests of that _specific party_).


BTW the labs were actually discredited by initially some in the media as they were being released but no one if I remember correctly wanted to directly challenge the US government as that would not have been a career enhancer at that time and space in the US.
Well, actually: 'German government' (see Joschka Fischer) did 'directly challenge' Rumsfeld & Co KG GesmbH, because the BND meanwhile realized that Curveball was providing bollocks. But, I do not recall that Der Spiegel did so.

On the contrary, and especially, all of Der Spiegel's publications related to Qibar were 'strictly along the party line'.


BTW just as the US press does not currently challenge the WH on a distinct lack of a Syrian strategy if anyone noticed lately or have they forgotten the red line on the use of chemical weapons against civilians which is still going on and is not being reported much these days by our press.
The latest load of Assadist CWs was unloaded upon the Daesh at Dayr az-Zawr, causing hundreds of casualties (indeed, de-facto destroying them in that area). Majority of 'Daesh' in question were actually Syrians forced into submission through incredible terror of the beasts.

Why should anybody care about that? :rolleyes:

CrowBat
01-19-2015, 08:30 AM
I like maps, although I thought Deir ez Zor had fallen recently to ISIS.
Although it was a 'close call', as reported in thread here (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=16276&page=42) - see my Post No 823 - it didn't.

Thanks to extensive use of chemical weapons by the Assadists.

davidbfpo
01-25-2015, 09:00 PM
Once again, a fascinating article on the Orynx blog this time on the Soviet-era APC, the BMP-1 and BMP-2. The emphasis being on the local DIY upgrading of the armour and weaponry:http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/onwards-to-front-syrias-bmps.html

davidbfpo
02-06-2015, 06:47 PM
A moving timeline chart for Allied air activity via a Danish website:http://www.information.dk/databloggen/515038


The United States Central Command, CENTCOM, updates the course of the war against the islamics in Iraq and Syria daily. In their press releases the actions of US and the partner nations is specified. However, from the 20th October the individual details of the partner nations are removed. From this date and so forth it is not possible to distinguish the actions of the specific partner nations.

davidbfpo
02-19-2015, 08:36 PM
A simple report, with numerous photos:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2015/02/19/from-russia-with-love-syrias-ak-74ms/

CrowBat
02-20-2015, 07:13 AM
^^From the article linked above:

...
Syia acquired its first batch of AK-74Ms in the late 90s, albeit in very small numbers. This very first batch was believed to have been part of a deal struck with Russia in 1996, which would renew the military and technological cooperation with Russia after this had dwindled due to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The deal envisaged the delivery of a wide selection of small arms, anti-tank missiles, night vision equipment and ammunition for weaponry already in use by Syria. Included in the package were large numbers of AKS-74Us, smaller numbers of AK-74Ms, RPG-29s, PG-7VR warheads for the RPG-7 but also 9M113M Konkurs anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and even 9M117M Bastion gun-launched anti-tank guided missiles for use by Syria’s at that point recently upgraded T-55MVs.

Disagreements over Syria’s insistence on lower prices and extended payment schemes for future purchases and its debt to Russia led to the failure of a deepened relationship between the two countries. Nonetheless, much of the ordered weaponry did ultimately reach Syria.
...

Actually, that deal (with Russia) fell through.

Syrians acquired their first AK-74s (plus the package mentioned in the second paragraph) from Belarus, two years later.

Those were the times when Syrians were actually re-selling most of that stuff all over Africa.

CrowBat
02-22-2015, 10:17 AM
Here an update on SITREP in Syria.

In essence, not much changed since mid-December before, in mid-February, the regime - that is: the IRGC-QF officers in charge of Syrian regime forces - attempted to launch two, near-simultaneous offensives.

One of these took place north of Aleppo, and can be seen as a continuation of operations from December 2014. Around 16 February, the IRGC-QF CO in Syria, Maj Gen Hossein Hamadani (assigned the post of C-in-C IRGC-Quds Force in Syria in October that year, in place of Soleimani who went to sort out things in Iraq), brought in another of his units to Aleppo, and launched an attack from Sayfat in direction of az-Zahra.

Together with Nubol, the latter is one of two centres of a Shi'a enclave north of Aleppo, de-facto cut-off from regime since two years.

This attack seems to have ended in a near-desaster, while only some 30 of involved thughs breaking through: that is, survivors de-facto fled the battlefield to find refugee in az-Zahra. as can be read here: http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/blow-ankara-syrian-army-makes-advances-aleppo-offensive]here:

Rebel counter-attack, storms halt Syria offensive in Aleppo (http://www.france24.com/en/20150219-rebel-counter-attack-storms-halt-syria-offensive-aleppo/).

A rebel counter-attack and stormy weather are preventing Syrian government forces from pressing their offensive in the northern province of Aleppo on Thursday, a monitor said.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the assault was stalling on its third day and that the clashes have killed 170 people, including 90 government troops and allied fighters.

The offensive has so far failed to break a rebel siege of the regime-held Shiite villages of Nubol and Zahraa, but government forces had effectively cut the insurgents' main supply route from Turkey into the east of Aleppo city.

However, regime forces backed by fighters from the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, as well as Iran and Afghanistan, were losing ground to the rebels.

Earlier in the day, the rebels recaptured most of Hardtaneen village, a day after losing it in fierce fighting, said Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman.

"A group of regime forces are still besieged inside the village and clashes are still ongoing," he told AFP.
On another front, rebel fighters were battling government forces around the regime-held village of Bashkoy, also in the Aleppo countryside.

"Most probably the offensive will fail because of the regime's inability to get reinforcements and because of the bad weather," he said in reference to winter storms that have lashed the region.

The Observatory said 90 regime combatants, including allied militiamen, had been killed in the offensive since Tuesday, as well as more than 80 rebels, among whom were 25 foreign jihadists.
Regime forces had captured 40 rebel fighters, while 32 government troops and allied militiamen were seized by the insurgents.

On Tuesday the UN envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said the Damascus government was ready to suspend aerial bombardment of Aleppo for six weeks to allow humanitarian aid into the northern city.
Once Syria's economic hub, Aleppo has been divided between regime control in the west and rebel control in the east since shortly after fighting began there in mid-2012.

In the surrounding countryside the situation is largely the reverse, with rebels controlling much of the area west of the city and regime forces much of the east.
Even the most conservative pro-insurgent sources estimate at least 130 NDF, IRGC-QF and Hezbollah as KIA (including at least 43 Syrians from Aleppo, 9 from Homs, 8 from Damascus and 16 from Lattakia and Tartous). Additionally, 48 were captured (including 7 Hezbollah, unclear whether Lebanese or Syrian) - by the IF alone (no clue if the JAN captured any too).

In turn, the IF and the JAN lost about 50-60 KIA.

The regime not only failed to capture it objectives, but lost some of places north of the city, including Malah and Rityan. Here a video from Malah, which is now under the control of the IF:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUWkWtneWQw

And here '17 Hezbollah' (not sure if they are indeed Hezbollah) captured in Rityan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2aWmEgMzB4

Now, a JAN counterattack (that is: Jabhat Ansar ad-Deen, ex Jaish al-Muhajireen wa al-Ansar) from Malah was subsequently stopped, but IF's attack (supported by ex-RGD's T-72s captured from the IRGC) on Hardantain was successful:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywLsciItjkA

************

...to be continued...

CrowBat
02-22-2015, 10:18 AM
The other offensive was launched in the north of Dera'a province, and here a very interesting report about new IRGC-QF tactics in this part of Syria (note: I've repeatedly reported about that tactics being applied in Damascus area since early the last year):

Hezbollah, Iran advance and incur losses in Daraa (https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/564849-hezbollah-iran-advance-and-incur-losses-in-daraa)


We’re not used to facing regime and Hezbollah forces at night… The night was ours, they used to prefer working in the day,” says Abu Osama al-Jolani, deputy commander of the First Army, a coalition of three Free Syrian Army (FSA) units.

“Yes, on the first day our forces were shocked: the enemy’s forces were advancing in the night, scouting then removing mines. Preparatory shelling began on positions in Al-Maymana and Al-Maysara, and night forces advanced without covering fire in the center. We lost 10 fighters on the first day, and the attacking forces also sustained a high number of losses.”
...

The operations took place on the front running through the towns of Deir al-Adas, Danaji, Tel Marahi, Tel Fatima and Tel Makir. In addition to nighttime attacks, combat reconnaissance operations were carried out: the attacking force sent in small groups that would try to break though FSA lines and blend in. Where they managed this they discovered defensive strengths and weaknesses. Then, they would be followed by a large armored force that would execute major attacks at the weakest points.

This tactic has a high human cost, especially for the attacking force. Nevertheless, it is a highly-effective method for revealing weak points. Consequently, the weakest defenses were breached. This is one of the factors that contributed to the success of the attacking force. On the other hand, the tactic led to a great many injuries — some of the wounded were air lifted to Damascus in the first days of the offensive before being returned to their home countries.

A third tactic used by the attacking force was to storm areas then quickly withdraw as soon as it came under heavy fire. This allowed it to reduce the strain on itself at the same time as wearing down FSA forces and depleting their ammunition. The attacking force was able to tire out the poorly-resourced FSA fighters through attack-and-retreat operations in which it set the timing, amount of force used and speed. The defending force believed it had been recapturing areas, but in reality it had only been expending energy, ammunition and fuel. Meanwhile, over the course of a month, the attacking force has been preparing itself for a drawn-out battle.

So, what is 'new' here:

1.) IRGC-QF adapting its tactics to suggestions provided by Abdullah Eskandari (IRGC-QF commander sniped to death in Damascus, in May 2014), some of which can be found in the article here (https://medium.com/war-is-boring/irans-agony-in-syria-53b64506b0ba), i.e. deploying _Iranian_ units (not Syrian, Iraqis, or any other recruited/sponsored by the IRGC) as 'shock troops' that are infiltrating enemy positions (primarily by night)

2.) Use of quads, motorcycles and armed buggies (by the IRGC-QF and Hezbollah) to increase mobility of their infantry on problematic terrain (instead of usually pick-ups, MBTs and IFVs).

Rebel spokesman: Iranian militias in Syria ‘saved the regime’ (http://syriadirect.org/main/36-interviews/1863-rebel-spokesman-iranian-militias-in-syria-saved-the-regime)

Q: What is the Syrian army trying to do in Daraa?

The Syrian army and its allied mercenaries are trying to gain control of a number of strategic regions that it lost in previous battles. This loss represented the destruction of the regime's lines of defense on Damascus, the capital.

Therefore it gathered troops in northern Quneitra, and a-Sanamein [the city of a-Sanamein is located between Damascus and Daraa city, roughly 50 km from each] in order to return the security situation to what it was before Deir al-Adas fell into FSA hands. Also it aims to push back progress rebels towards the Damascus countryside.

Q: Why did the regime begin this new battle in Daraa now?

Because Daraa represents a large reserve [of fighters and military equipment] for the FSA. Also because of the recent gains on the southern front, which reached the thresholds of Damascus.

There is also the number of military commanders in the province, who proved their worth in the last four years of the revolution.

Q: There are reports that the regime is trying to separate Quneitra from the western Daraa countryside. What's behind this move?

This is indeed the goal of the military campaign, i.e., to control a triangle of land separating the three provinces [Daraa, Rif Dimashq and Quneitra].

Q: What is the regime's strategy on the southern front?

The regime today has no decision-making capacity, sovereignty or strategy, because the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah have taken over the decision-making process.

Their strategy revolves around attempting to exterminate the revolution from the south, and to extend their control to the Golan Heights, in order to become the true guardians of Israel's safety.

Q: Will the regime's control over Deir al-Adas change the balance of power in the region?

Yes, regime control over Deir al-Adas impacts the course of the FSA's operations in the area.
It will slow things town, considering that Damascus is the FSA's goal today, and the Deir al-Adas axis is the closest [in Daraa province to Damascus].

Q: How much of the southern region do the rebels control?

We control about 70 percent of the land, the regime's control is limited to several centers in cities and towns.

Q: To what extent does Jabhat a-Nusra cooperate with the FSA in the region?

Jabhat a-Nusra is there on the ground, and acts independently of the FSA.

Q: What is the importance of the Shiite and Iranian militias' participation in fighting in the South?

The Iranian Shiite militias' participation is considered direct and barefaced intervention in the Syrian issue. It points to their illegitimate ambitions and intentions, old and new, to spread their control over the area.

The militias' intervention certainly saved the regime after the latter had exhausted its material and human energy. As for the effect of these militias—it will only increase our resilience and the conviction in the justness of our cause.

Q: When did the Shiite Iranian presence appear in the southern regions?

The Iranian role was present from the beginning of the Syrian revolution. It it was limited to logistical support, but as events escalated their presence became clear in the most sensitive regions, in the southern regions and especially the mausoleum of a-Sayyeda Zeinab under the pretext of protecting their holy sites.

Q: There are reports that say Qassem Suleimani is located in the southern regions, do you have any information?

Yes, he is here on the ground, overseeing operations under orders from the leader of the Revolution [Ali Khamanei]. This proves the Iranians' doctrinal involvement directly.
...Meanwhile, the insurgents have stalled this offensive. Between others, they are either at least attacking, or have already re-captured Tel Mari (hill taken by the IRGC-QF right at the start of their attack):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NINIz_hBMjc

Another video from the same area (this time from the Yarmouk Army):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbNvS565tW4

************

In other news:

B-1 pilots describe bombing campaign against ISIS in kobane (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/17/b-1-pilots-describe-bombing-campaign-against-isis-in-kobani/)

On his first sortie over Kobani, Squadron Commander Lt. Col. Ed Sumangil, expected the mission to be uneventful. Instead the crew “went Winchester,” Air Force lingo for dropping all of the bombs in a payload. The B1-B planes carry 500-lb and 2,000-lb bombs.

“We got up there thinking it would be quiet. and immediately we started getting targets against ISIL command and control elements,” he said.

Reviewing the damage assessments in the next days and weeks, Lt. Col. Sumangil said, it was clear that the airstrikes, combined with a Kurdish offensive on the ground, “basically stopped their progress.”

During as much as eight hours flying over Kobani, the 9th Bomb Squadron would get targets called in to the air operations center from air controllers working with the Kurds. The B-1 crew would get the target, drop a weapon and then get confirmation from the fighters on the ground.

“It was almost like an orchestra,” said Maj. Brandon Miller, the squadron’s director of operations. “The information was flowing… almost like clockwork.”

Each day the B-1 crews would be briefed on where the dividing line was in Kobani, what the Air Force would call the Forward Line of Troops, or FLOT.
......to be continued....

CrowBat
02-22-2015, 10:19 AM
To make things particularly interesting, and all of a sudden, two days ago Turkey has announced (http://t24.com.tr/haber/isid-suleyman-sahtaki-askerleri-rehin-aldi-masada-takas-ve-tsknin-kapsamli-bir-operasyon-plani-var,287808) that its troops guarding the Shah Suleiman Tomb near Qarah Qawzaq have been held as hostages by the ISIS since June 2014.

Ironically, local FSyA and YPG units are now attempting an advance in this direction. They should have reached the place yesterday: Syria Kurds, rebels advance into ISIS bastion (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Feb-19/288046-syria-kurds-rebels-advance-into-isis-bastion-activists.ashx)

Syrian Kurdish and rebel forces, backed by U.S.-led air strikes, advanced Thursday into Raqqa province, where ISIS has its de facto capital, an activist group said.

"The YPG [Kurdish People's Protection Units] and rebel forces captured 19 villages in Raqqa province," said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

"The U.S.-led international coalition played a key role in the advance, bombing the ISIS positions and forcing its fighters to withdraw," said Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman.
...To further increase the irony, YPG spokesman Polat Can (https://twitter.com/polatcano/status/568804002940346368) (his Twitter account was meanwhile shut down) now claims Turkey officially requested the YPG to rescue its hostages.

davidbfpo
02-22-2015, 12:17 PM
The NYT reports that Turkish forces entered Syria and evacuated the garrison at the tomb and the tomb's contents:
The Turkish Army launched an operation into Syria to evacuate soldiers guarding the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, which has been besieged by Islamic State militants, and move the tomb’s remains, an official and Turkish news media reported on Sunday.The military then destroyed what was left of the site to prevent the militants from using the enclave, and one soldier was killed by accident during the operation, CNN Turk said Sunday, citing military officials.
The operation, called “Sah Firat,” began on Saturday and involved a large convoy of tanks and other heavy weaponry that entered Syria through Kobani....Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/world/europe/turkish-military-enters-syria-to-evacuate-soldiers-guarding-tomb-reports-say.html?

CrowBat
02-23-2015, 12:09 AM
According to source here (http://www.haber7.com/foto-galeri/33550-iste-sah-firat-operasyonunun-ilk-kareleri), they deployed a total of 39 MBTs, 100 APCs, 57 MRAPs, and 572 troops during this op.

...and 2x F-16Cs....

davidbfpo
02-26-2015, 03:47 PM
Via Open Democracy:
For 12 days, two Dutch journalists travelled all over Assad’s Syria. They spoke with high-ranking officials in government and generals at the front lines. A unique look behind the scenes.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/robert-dulmers-teun-voeten/dateline-damascus-fighting-on-all-fronts

Citing an un-named 'general-in-the-field:
Did he have prisoners of war? “We don’t keep prisoners. We kill them immediately. Either they flee or we kill them. We shoot them on the spot and shovel them with a bulldozer under the ground. They are not men. I don’t consider them as human beings. They are less than animals to me. Down the road from where you came, 19 are buried in a mass grave. Do go to have a look on your way back—terrorists from Egypt, Sudan, Algeria and Saudi Arabia.” He threw a few IDs on the table. And how about the destroyed villages along the road—had he blown them up? “The villagers collaborated with the Free Syrian Army. Some villagers were used as human shields. We had no other option.”



On the NDF and Syrian Army, with my emphasis:
The regime increasingly relies on the National Defence Force established in 2013, a pot-pourri of 100,000 locally organised and highly motivated volunteers. In 12 days travelling some 1,200km, except for special forces in Aleppo we hardly saw any anything of the regular army. The bands of Assad’s soldiers at the roadblocks in Homs and Damascus were for the most part members of that force, obviously rooted in the local community.

AdamG
03-04-2015, 04:04 PM
Temporary separate thread for maximum visibility.


In northern Syria, is the US running out of rebel allies?

Harakat Hazzm, a US-armed group vetted by the CIA for training, has fallen to an Al Qaeda affiliate that is targeting moderate rebels.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2015/0304/In-northern-Syria-is-the-US-running-out-of-rebel-allies


The U.S. backed “moderate” rebel militia “Harakat Hazzm” (Movement of Steadfastness) has faced an abrupt end to their one year old existence after a war broke0ut between their forces and the Syrian Al-Qaeda branch “Jabhat Al-Nusra” in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo.

While U.S. State Officials attempted to depict Harakat Hazzm as a moderate rebel force combatting the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Syrian President, Dr. Bashar Al-Assad, they failed to garner much support from the Syrian populous, as their alleged 4,000 strong organization folded in the same province they found their genesis in this Syrian conflict.

Oddly enough, Harakat Hazzm was one of the first “moderate” rebel forces to receive the much anticipated TOW (anti-tank) missiles to combat the SAA’s armored divisions in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo; however, these weapons were irrelevant against the swarming Jabhat Al-Nusra contingents at Regiment 46 Base in southwest Aleppo – their forces disbanded one week after the latter declared war against them.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/last-moderates-harakat-hazzm-disbands-join-islamists/

CrowBat
03-13-2015, 11:12 PM
Monitoring the war in Syria of the last few weeks has had its usual elements of tragedies (like JAN's overrunning of Hazzm), but those of irony and even some sarcasm too.

Namely, the flow of this war has once again shown that - for the time being, at least - it's primarily a 'everybody, and especially foreigners vs Syrian moderates' conflict. On the other hand it has clearly shown limitations of regime's military, regardless how much support this is meanwhile receiving from Tehran.

Back in mid-February, C-in-C IRGC-QF in Syria, Maj Gen Hamedani, has rushed one of his units consisting of Afghan Hazaras to the north of Aleppo and then into an attack that I sincerely expected would finish the process of putting insurgents in eastern Aleppo under a siege. In cooperation with at least one similar-sized Hezbollah outfit (it's still unclear if this was an 'original', Lebanese-, or one of recently established Syrian-Hezbollah units), the unit in question - Harakat an-Najba Brigade - enthusiastically launched an attack from positions north of the city towards an-Nubol and az-Zahra in the west.

The latter two are Shi'a enclaves, more or less 'besieged' by insurgents since early 2012...

Anyway, this attack ended in such a catastrophe, that only about 30 exhausted survivors reached their aims: the rest was killed (at least 130) or captured (around 100) by a conglomerate of FSyA, IF and JAN groups...

That was when the JAN decided to - in cooperation with Ahrar ash-Sham (which lost all of its leadership in Daesh suicide attack, earlier, and is ever since increasingly leaning towards the JAN for leadership), and Suqour ash-Sham - finish the Harakat. And did so, in a matter of something like three days...

In return for this, rumour has it, somebody from the Hazzam then revealed details of a major meeting of all possible JAN-leaders to the regime. The SyAAF hit the place with two MiG-29s toothing Kh-29s (ASCC code 'AS-14'), killing at least 18 top JAN idiots.

...except al-Jawlani (the founder), of course...

To make matters trully ironic: Harakat was unable to request such (air) support from the CENTCOM, because its unit of 50 US-trained FAC was dissolved too. Reason: USA stopped supporting it.

Ah well..

Meanwhile, the regime deployed a conglomerate of IRGC-QF units (led by the Fatemiyun Brigade), Hezbollah (this time from Lebanon), and two 'divisions' of the NDF for another offensive against insurgents in Sheikh Mishkin area, in southern Syria.

This attack began in quite a spectacular fashion, with the IRGC-QF and Hezbollah infiltrating insurgent positions and then attacking them from multiple directions - all of this by night. As usually, they dragged the NDF in their wake, the latter providing tank- and artillery support.

Now, initially, the Iranians (and their Iraqi and Lebanese 'volunteers') have captured a number of villages and even some important peaks north of Kfar Nassij and Kfar Shams. However, the SF recovered surprisingly quickly. As usually, they applied the tactics of using the JAN idiots as cannon-fodder: few pockets of these held the regime troops busy enough for the SF to launch counterattacks and this offensive was thus stalled too. Since early March, there are only positional battles for few places, some of which changed hands multiple times...

But, much worse for Hamedani (and relations between Damascus and Tehran) was the third failure. Namely, in early March, few of local pro-regime dickheads (one really can't call them any other way), launched a 'major offensive' of regime troops into northern- and north-eastern Lattakia. As far as I can say, this was undertaken without any kind of coordination with Hamedani, at discretion of local Syrian commanders who are keen to 'show they can'. Well, it proved they can't.

Surely, they've captured Mt Durrin and a village with the same name, and then intended to continue with a bold advance... Sufficient to say that the JAN and Coastal Division FSyA are meanwhile back inside that and this despite the fact that the Jihadis are bitterly complaining about activity of 'Syrian warplanes' (of which there was actually nothing, because the weather was cloudy and there was much rain in this area, the last twoweeks).

Overall, I would say this round is showing that, no matter how big-mouthed, Hamedani is simply not of Soleimani's calibre (and Soleimani is busy in Iraq). He's split his forces and meagre resources, and rushed them in two opposite directions. Then he grossly underestimated his opposition, and this resulted in two 'promising' offensives ending in costly draws. Assad's relatives then delivered the cream on that coffee...

Indeed, although everybody is claiming that the regime has 'at least 300,000 men under arms', neither the IRGC-QF - even when combined with (Lebanese AND Syrian) Hezbollah, plus all possible 'militias' fighting 'pro' regime - nor the NDF can scratch enough manpower and supplies to run at least one 'major' offensive any more. All one can see of them on the battlefields are 'brigades', even 'divisions' of anything between 400 and 1,000 combatants at most. And most of attacks are meanwhile spearheaded by units composed of Afghan Hazaras, paid for by the IRGC...

CrowBat
03-15-2015, 09:23 AM
Further to reports about 'donation' of 10 ex-Iraqi Su-22s by Iran to Syria, this video is probably showing one of aircraft in question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCOT7qG8YN4

Reason: entirely unusual camo pattern for SyAAF Su-22s (it does not correspond to anything known as applied on them so far), and appearing very fresh, plus commentary by the poster that cites, 'a new kind of warplane' - which Su-22 is actually not the least (at least not for Syria).

davidbfpo
03-15-2015, 02:38 PM
Jsut spotted this UK charity 90 second video on Syria's children, very effective, well it makes you think:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmDr3DMI7os&feature=youtu.be

CrowBat
03-17-2015, 07:28 AM
...it's really hard to remain serious when discussing Obama's/Kerry's foreign politics in the Middle East, and particularly Syria.

Even harder not to get sarcastic.

Namely, right on heels of reports about deliveries of 10 ex-Iraqi Su-22s provided by Tehran (http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.at/2015/03/iranian-fighter-bombers-operating-in.html) to Syria, (and that on direct order from Khamenei)...

...there follow reports about SyAAF bombing civilians in Insurgent-held areas of Damascus (https://www.yahoo.com/news/activists-syrian-air-raids-pound-rebellious-damascus-suburb-125850590.html), killing dozens...

...followed by about a dozen of gruesome videos showing scenes of regime's large-scale attack with chemical weapons against Sarmin, in Idlib province:
https://www.youtube.com/embed/ovPKtOjOx7g

^^That, BTW, is just one, less graffic, take posted online this morning.

Gauging by the number of gased children, it's 'another Halabcheh' - and that right on the anniversary of the infamous Iraqi attack... :rolleyes:

OUTLAW 09
03-17-2015, 09:05 AM
More from the chlorine attack: an Obama's "red line" is where this time as the last time I checked it applied to all uses of chemical weapons by Assad and was never rescinded.

Chlorine bombs in Syria are not used for their military potential ("low"), but for their political significance: "We still do what we want"

No doubt other dictators are taking notes on how many toddlers you can kill with chemical weapons before the world cares. They also note the flaccid reaction of international community to the Syrian government's use of chlorine as a chemical weapon Worth noting in the recent report from the UN's commission on Syria they clearly state they believe the Syrian government has used chlorine

More videos RT @rConflictNews Did the Assad regime just use chlorine bombs in Idlib? #Syria http://www.conflict-news.com/did-the-assad-regime-just-use-chlorine-bombs-in-idlib/ … pic.twitter.com/Ao8klsKKjd

Chlorine gas attack reported on #Syria's #Sarmin yesterday. Videos v @SyriaCivilDef http://youtu.be/MmNBLUtP3hw https://youtu.be/ovPKtOjOx7g

Field doctor talks of at least 70 suffocation cases following a regime chlorine gas attack in Sarmin, #Idlib, #Syria http://youtu.be/MmNBLUtP3hw

The #Assad regime attacks #Sarmin with two barrel bombs filed with Chlorine gas, in defiance of UNSC resolution

Nice and yellow.
Just another #Assad terror attack in the town of Al-Tamanah today.
pic.twitter.com/u1WQAV10A5

TERRIBLE MASSACRES WITH #BOMBS OR #GAS HAPPENING EVERY FEW MINUTES NOW IN SYRIA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kywOVI5xGzM … pic.twitter.com/6cgJ12Mms5

Rescuers searching for victims in just another #Assad regime terror attack in northern #Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5u3fyD9LdU … pic.twitter.com/bnQ3vMoFg7

Yesterday alone #Syria regime carried out 126 aerial attacks of which 74 were barrel bombs according to @syriahr http://amn.st/60142rzr

flagg
03-17-2015, 06:11 PM
Are any SWJ members aware of any current open source economic and infrastructure assessments on Syria that come recommended?

Reports that cover electrification, water service, sewerage, roading, commercial infrastructure, etc.?

The Lebanese have displayed considerable resiliency and have managed to rebuild their economy and infrastructure several times, and seemingly with great velocity, since the 1970's.

Are any members aware of reports that cover Lebanese recovery from their civil wars?

But anecdotally, the Syrian Civil War seems to have destroyed an unknown but staggering amount of infrastructure that looks like it may require many decades and hundreds of billions just to return to a pre-Syrian Civil War average quality of life and standard of living.

With limited natural resources to self-fund future recovery, is Syria the new Afghanistan? Only able to tread water via foreign aid focused on the geopolitical whims of external actors?

It would be interesting to see how propping up Syria fits(or doesn't) into Iran's budgets over the next 25 years.

Is Egypt's experience in Yemen in the 1960's relevant to Syria?

davidbfpo
03-17-2015, 07:26 PM
Flagg,

I found numerous UN, NGO and even USG documents by searching Google with 'Syrian Infrastructure 2013'. Presumably repeated searches using slightly different terms will find more.

A friend has referred to some NGOs planning basic service provision, but he is not available. I'd look for some of the well known NGOs, e.g. MSF and others who were active in country, by 2015 I expect that is far less.

My recollection of Egypt's role in the Yemen, now long ago, was that it was all military. Egypt then was in no position to make massive investments.

CrowBat
03-18-2015, 05:32 PM
Are any SWJ members aware of any current open source economic and infrastructure assessments on Syria that come recommended?Except for what can be found through googling, not really. But, there are quite a few not from 'open source' domain.

And none is the least promising.

That said: Syria is actually neither poor, nor lacking natural resources. Rather 'debilitated by Assads'. It has immense potentials in tourism, agronomy, and plenty of experience and tradition in regards of trade, transit, furniture industry etc. There are at least as many wealthy Syrians abroad as there are Lebanese. The workforce might not be as skilled as somewhere else, but it's relatively well-educated. Foremost: Syrians are resourceful and willing people, capable of adapting.

...or at least they used to be.

I'm seriously concerned that they'll never get a chance: the country is first going to get raped and ripped apart by whoever only can.

So yes, 'new Afghanistan' - in terms of at least half the population living abroad as refugees and the rest serving as a breeding ground for all sorts of extremism. Unlikely to get sorted out in time of our lives...


Is Egypt's experience in Yemen in the 1960's relevant to Syria?I'll have to think about this for a day or two, but my first reaction is: not the least, there are immense differences.

CrowBat
03-18-2015, 05:43 PM
Ah yes, and there was one more - particularly interesting - question:


It would be interesting to see how propping up Syria fits(or doesn't) into Iran's budgets over the next 25 years.Prior to the war, Iranians were present in the country in two ways:

- liaison (military) officers, serving as links to the Hezbollah,

- genuinely pious pilgrims (thousands of them, every year).

Nowadays, they're in charge of regime's finances and the military. My most conservative estimate is that Tehran has already squandered at least US$ 46 billion (and counting!) to keep Assads afloat. It's unlikely to spend less to bring this war to anything like 'point from which one can see a horizon' (which is still going to be very distant from 'clear-cut victory')....

But OK, for the sake of 'reasonable discussion', let's say they 'win', or at least retain control over something like one third of Syria...

Knowing the 'poor & slow' pace of post-Iran-Iraq War (and few earthquakes) pace of recovery of specific parts of Iran... sigh... that outlook is not the least promising. Primary problem of Iranians are neither money, nor skills, but endemic corruption and lack of skilled managers.

The IRGC-QF is more likely to develop whatever it might retain under its control as a base for its Syrian Hezbollah (already bigger than 'Lebanese origin', at least according to Hamedani), than start seriously investing there with intention of prompting something like economic recovery.

And even if (or if Syrians start investing): gauging by what is the IRGC doing at home (in the IRI), even should there be anything like 'successful economic recovery under surviving Assad/IRGC-regime', then we can expect that the IRGC is going to grab any successful/flourishing business it can put its fingers upon...

CrowBat
03-19-2015, 07:36 AM
Two more of 'ah yes, I forgot about it' issues...

A US MQ-1 Predator was shot down by Syrian air defences near Lattakia, two days ago (17 March 2015). Of course, CENTCOM says it's 'investigating reasons for the loss of contact', though the regime fans are more than proud to show photos...

And... there seems to be something like 'house cleaning' within Assad's Camelot:

- Bashar relieved Rustom Ghazali from the post of Director of the Political Security Branch

- Bashar relieved Rafic Chehade from the post of Head of Military Security.

These are some very intriguing news - even more so after recent death of Hilal Assad (see posts above). In the case of Ghazali even more so: he used to be Bashar's Heydrich, de facto in charge of Lebanon after Israeli withdrawal from there, in 2000, and supposedly responsible for Hariri's assasination in 2005. His removal is a culmination of his fail from grace, which started with torching of his palace, hospitalization and persistent rumours of his executions...

Some guess that this might be related to this affair: the syrian spy who fooled the regime (http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/exclusive-the-spy-who-fooled-the-assad-regime)

...In a highly successful double-cross, a senior army officer from the Assad regime secretly gave Western-backed rebels vital intelligence that led to critical losses for government forces in southern Syria.

The defeat at Tal Al Harra, an electronic warfare station 50 kilometres south of Damascus, sent president Bashar Al Assad’s mukhabarat, or secret police, on a hunt for the source of the leaks and resulted in the killing of dozens of military personnel wrongly accused of treason.

The fog of conspiracy unleashed by the secret defection of General Mahmoud Abu Araj also helped spread discord between regime forces and their Iranian allies – and may have inadvertently played a role in the undoing of one of the Middle East’s most infamous intelligence chiefs, Syria’s Rustom Ghazalah.
...

...and I tend to agree that this was a 'drop too much'. Instead of securing Lattakia, Ghazali and Chehade lost a better part of this province to two insurgent + JAN offensives, in 2013 and 2014. Then they've lost Tel al-Harra under above-described circumstances and, two weeks ago - and despite objections from IRGC-QF officers who demanded reinforcements for Aleppo fronts - they launched a 'major offensive' to recover NE Lattakia, which de-facto failed too (they only recovered one mountain peak and adjacent village).

In a maffia-like organization like that of Assad family there is enough space for tollerance of incompetents. But, there is responsibility too. When actions of incompetents start hurting the entire system, it's time to remove them.

CrowBat
03-21-2015, 05:23 PM
This should be the operator of the SAM-site that has shot that MQ-1, four days ago.

Environment looks like the CP of the Pechora-2M variant. That's slightly surprising, then the last news before the war began was that Syrians have lost interest in that system: Russians were advertising and offering, but proved unable to deliver fully-digitalized Pechora-2Ms...

Bill Moore
03-22-2015, 02:43 PM
In Syria, Darkness Takes On New Meaning After Four Years of War

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/syrias-second-front/in-syria-darkness-takes-on-new-meaning-after-four-years-of-war/?elqTrackId=9A6403A10C6321E1AA546E369A5BFBDF&elq=893134a317c5467f865b7eb8344a8335&elqCampaignId=1230&elqaid=2489&elqat=1


New satellite images, released by a coalition of 130 humanitarian and human rights organizations on Wednesday, show that 83 percent of the lights over Syria have gone black since the conflict began. Syrians fleeing the violence have left behind darkened homes, while fighting has destroyed buildings and power infrastructure, leaving broad patches of the nation without electricity.

Much more on the humanitarian crisis, a crisis that gets less coverage than the humanitarian crisis in Sudan received. An indication of the West's unwillingness to live up to its idealistic goal of "responsibility to protect?" Colin Gray was right, it will be another bloody century, and we'll sit on the sidelines and allow tens of thousands to be murdered.


More than 210,000 Syrians have been killed since the war began, and according to a report by the SCPR this week, another 840,000 people have been wounded.

The destruction of Syria’s health care infrastructure has taken a disastrous toll on life expectancy, cutting it by 20 years, from 79.5 years before the war to 55.7 years in 2014.

davidbfpo
03-22-2015, 03:18 PM
Bill,

The much cited 'Responsibility to Protect' (R2P) has been debated here before and Syria in particular. Rwanda's genocide in 1994 preceeded SWC's arrival and the mayhem in Darfur, DRC, CAR and other places have seen external intervention - with different impacts.

Civil wars are never "black or white" and Europe has had a long history of them, sometimes with nationalism and religion adding to the mixture.

In Syria, at the beginning I do believe there were opportunities, sadly once the conflict became violent on both sides. Once the violent jihadists asserted themselves the West effectively stood back, relying on diplomacy and the 'red lines' episode.

Sitting on the sidelines is a choice and I have yet to see any shift in public opinion here to support military intervention.

Incidentally during the disintegration of Yugoslavia, notably when civil war came to Bosnia-Herzogovina, public opinion here supported a far more forceful intervention - then under UN auspices - which the politicians ignored, partly as they thought the casualties would be high. Finally the Dutch, French and British acted independently @ Mt. Igman, to end the Serbian bombardment of Sarejevo.

R2P should be "put to bed" ASAP. Alas it is now an established "do good" concept, even legal principle and that is unlikely to happen.

CrowBat
03-22-2015, 04:15 PM
Well... sigh... letting Syria... or letting others let Syria descend into a quagmire and breeding ground for all sorts of extremism and foreign influence was surely the worst imaginable 'concept'.

What happened and is happening there is meanwhile so bad, it's one of just a few cases where I trust myself to make any 'predictions': consequences of this conflict are going to be felt - and that almost everywhere around the world - well beyond the next 20-30 years. And majority of these consequences are massive failures of the so-called 'civilized World'.

Bill Moore
03-22-2015, 04:18 PM
Bill,

The much cited 'Responsibility to Protect' (R2P) has been debated here before and Syria in particular. Rwanda's genocide in 1994 preceeded SWC's arrival and the mayhem in Darfur, DRC, CAR and other places have seen external intervention - with different impacts.

Civil wars are never "black or white" and Europe has had a long history of them, sometimes with nationalism and religion adding to the mixture.

In Syria, at the beginning I do believe there were opportunities, sadly once the conflict became violent on both sides. Once the violent jihadists asserted themselves the West effectively stood back, relying on diplomacy and the 'red lines' episode.

Sitting on the sidelines is a choice and I have yet to see any shift in public opinion here to support military intervention.

Incidentally during the disintegration of Yugoslavia, notably when civil war came to Bosnia-Herzogovina, public opinion here supported a far more forceful intervention - then under UN auspices - which the politicians ignored, partly as they thought the casualties would be high. Finally the Dutch, French and British acted independently @ Mt. Igman, to end the Serbian bombardment of Sarejevo.

R2P should be "put to bed" ASAP. Alas it is now an established "do good" concept, even legal principle and that is unlikely to happen.

Why should R2P put to bed ASAP? I understand the feasibility issue if we try to address underlying issues. In most cases we can't, but I believe we can establish safe zones, as demonstrated in Northern Iraq between the Iraq wars. I realize a lot of people want to live in the past, or maybe repeat the past and embrace a Chamberlain worldview of wishing problems away. Today we have numerous supranational organizations that we claim to support (to include UK in that we) to promote a better international order, and yet when push comes to shove we fail to act in a meaningful manner.

I don't think there were opportunities in the early part of war, the Islamists were always there. Assad's father was fighting them when Assad was a young boy. Perhaps we could have reached out to Assad and provided advice on how to handle his crisis, instead of promoting another Arab Spring that clearly wasn't going anywhere. After Assad's security forces committed a number of severe human rights violations that option was off the table (though apparently back on the table now according to Kerry). We could have established a safe zone around Aleppo. Letting people starve to death doesn't speak well of our collective ability to live by our values.

CrowBat
03-22-2015, 10:21 PM
Ahrar ash-Sham announced its merger with Suqour ash-Sham, today:
https://www.youtube.com/embed/GOfAUTRMnws

That's now the third biggest insurgent group (or second, depending on status of various SF/SRF/FSyA formations), with about 20-25,000 combatants. Though probably the most combat effective of all.

davidbfpo
03-23-2015, 07:34 PM
Brookings have a comment on the merging of Islamist groups:http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/03/23-syrian-islamists-balancing-with-alqaeda-lister

This passage is potent:
In fact, while rarely acknowledged explicitly in public, the vast majority of the Syrian insurgency has coordinated closely with Al-Qaeda since mid-2012 – and to great effect on the battlefield. But while this pragmatic management of relationships may have secured opposition military victories against the regime, it has also come at an extraordinary cost.

CrowBat
03-24-2015, 07:47 AM
Aw please David...

That statement is such hogwash, I cannot believe anybody at Brookings came to the idea to formulate it.

The fact that nearly all of Syrian insurgents are cooperating or have cooperated with the JAN - which has subjected itself to al-Qaida - at one or the other point in time does not mean that they all would be 'closely coordinating their operations with al-Qaida' in sense of 'planning to vage a global Jihad against infidels, primarily the West'. Even less so they would even listen to AQ's nonsense.

That is: except the customer paying for that study is hell or bent on providing more argumentation pro reasoning that USA should not support Syrian insurgents, of course?

BTW, if just one US emissary carrying few 'bags of bucks' would have appeared there around the same time the AQ emissaries from Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia did... they could buy the JAN for as little as one or two million (at most).

Instead: I am yet to hear about a single FBI warrant for any of GCC-citizens in question... (minus Kuwaiti sheikh that was killed in one of SyAAF bombardments, of course).

davidbfpo
03-24-2015, 12:06 PM
Crowbat,

Thank you for that critique of the Brookings report. I can sometimes discern what the think tanks, advocacy groups and more within 'The Beltway' is simply wrong. It is as if their audience is within 'The Beltway', hence my practice of posting viewpoints from elsewhere.

Understandably external access to Syria is harder today than at the start of the protests; not just for the media and recently I read how external charities & NGOs were having greater difficulties.

One small aspect of the civil war has been the blockading of Yarmouk, a refugee populated Damascus suburb, where Palestinian factions fight on both sides. The terrible conditions that ensued got intermittent media reporting here. Not once have I spotted any Palestinian objections from outside Syria. "Pawns in the middle" being crushed comes to mind.
Link to a slim Wiki account:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarmouk_Camp

CrowBat
03-24-2015, 05:33 PM
Point is:

- 'coordination on the battlefield', even 'joint operations' with an 'al-Qaida-linked group', is not the same like:

- 'subjecting oneself to al-Qaida's rule', 'intending to wage a global Jihad', or whatever of that kind.

Crucial matter of fact is: the JAN is there, USA not. Period.

And since the JAN is there, and fighitng the very same regime other insurgents are fighting - even fighting the Daesh - they're in touch with it. Sometimes 'closely coordinating' operations with it. Other times they have contacts of other 'quality': see what happened to the SRF and the Harakat Hazzm, both of which learned the wrong way how such contacts usually end...

Doesn't mean anybody there is looking forward to join al-Qaida and go crashing airliners against skyscrapers.

(Hell... I've had contact to an al-Qaida group, back in late summer 1990. I just didn't know I've had it [and nobody called it 'al-Qaida' back then]. Doesn't mean I would ever come to the idea to join or even support it.)

Now, compare this with US standpoints towards various insurgent groups, with on/off provision of 'aid' and - more often - cancellation of any aid as soon as regime is on advance etc. Foremost: compare this with the US letting all possible of its allies support extremists while these were exterminating moderates.

What should one expect the insurgents to do?

Sorry that joining the USA and declaring themselves the 51st federal state as 'thanks' for all 'support' they've got does not appear as a viable option to most of them...

CrowBat
03-25-2015, 12:12 PM
Here (http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/rebels-capture-busra-al-sham/) a good example for 'close coordination':

...militants of the Syrian Al-Qaeda group “Jabhat Al-Nusra” and the 1st Brigade of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have captured this southern Dara’a city...

As usually, this operation was run by the FSA (i.e. 'Southern Front'), which is using JAN idiots as suicide bombers and cannon fodder of all sorts. Under pressure, the NDF collapsed and fled.

Ever since, the regime's 52nd Brigade is counterattacking. Supposedly, they are 'in full control over the castle' meanwhile, but regime admits that 'fierce clashes' are ongoing.

Actually, it seems the JAN and the FSA are after the Suwaida AB, nearby, with Bosra being only a 'diversion'.

BTW, Bosra is a lovely town. Centrepiece are ancient Roman ruins... including a completely reconstructed amphitheatre (surrounded by a medieval castle), basilica from the 3rd or 4th Century, giant water cistern, and a thermal bath. Hope, something of all of that is going to stay intact...

davidbfpo
03-25-2015, 12:47 PM
Citing only one question:
Is Egypt's experience in Yemen in the 1960's relevant to Syria?

Hat tip to Greg Johnsen on Twitter. Have you seen this book: Nasser's Gamble: How Intervention in Yemen Caused the Six-Day War and the Decline of Egyptian Power by Jesse Ferris, pub. 2012:http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00A431LEC?ref_=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_2054712102&%252AVersion%252A=1&%252Aentries%252A=0&pldnSite=1

CrowBat
03-25-2015, 07:36 PM
This is now going to drag us away from topic, but...

I've read the book above, it's really a good and fascinating read, but I cannot really agree with its thesis.

Primary reason is Ferris' failure of considering a crucial document unearthed from Polish archives few years ago. The document in question, On Soviet Policy Following the Israeli Aggression in the Middle East (http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/e-dossier-no-8-the-soviet-union-and-the-six-day-war-revelations-the-polish-archives) is clearly showing that it was certain Comrade Brezhnev that provoked the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War - although unintentionally. Instead of finding out about this, Ferris is guessing about Nasser's reason for 'remilitarization of the Sinai' (expression which is a pure hogwash: Egyptian military never completely 'demilitarized' the Sinai before the June 1967 War; for example, el-Arish and Meliz/Bir Gifgafa were two major air bases with permanently deployed units, and there was a host of other, permanently based units in the area). Becasue of this, he'd drawing a multitude of wrong conclusions.

Next reason is Ferris' failure to understand the 'private', indeed 'personal' dimension in relations between Nasser and Johnson. Surely, after all of his earlier blunders, Nasser was in deep trouble - at home and in the Arab world of the mid-1960s. However, it was the latter that never forgot that it was 'Nasser's MiG-21s' that have shot down a C-82A Packet transport with certain John Meachan, one of Johnson's closest friends, on board, in December 1964. And since Johnson wouldn't accept the fact that Mechan's aircraft violated the Egyptian airspace and then refused repeated requests to land and warning shots across its nose... well, this was one of crucial reasons for Johnson's suspension of the Food for Peace program which brought Egypt to the verge of bankrupcy and drove it directly into Soviet hands...

Another reason... while much can be said about FM Amer's incompetence, corruption, even naivety and particularly weak nerves (as shown during the Suez War of 1956 and again in June War 1967), he cannot be blamed for 'lacking military skill' (just a citate from Ferris). He lacked higher military education (he never underwent any courses abouve those of the rank of Major, in early 1950s, but was promoted from Major straight to Field Marshal because of friendship with Nasser), no doubt. But, even Pollak in 'Arabs at War' is praising Amer's planning and leadership during COIN Operation Ramadan, in March 1963 not only as 'successful' but indeed for causing crippling losses to Yemeni Royalists and pushing them to the verge of defeat.

Talking about Nasser's and Amer's relationship as of May-June 1967: yes, Nasser was concerned Amer might launch a coup (and it seems Amer was indeed planning one), but there was also a strict distribution of duties between them. Nasser didn't meddle into military affairs, and Amer didn't meddle into Nasser's political decisions. So if, as Ferris is explaining, Nasser became overconfident in Egyptian aerial supremacy (over Israel), then this happened not because of any experiences from Yemen, but because Nasser asked Amer (and other top commanders) - and that repeatedly - and they all told him that they are going to enjoy aerial supremacy over Israel, IF they attack as first (this is arguable at best, but that's another story). Informed by multiple sources that Israelis are about attack, Nasser killed all such ideas and ordered them to wait and receive the first Israeli blow instead. That's what one can read in such original Egyptian documents like 'Document 44' (Results of official investigation into Egyptian military failure during the June 1967 War).

And so on and so on....

Overall, while Ferris' book is certainly a very serious study (much more so than 'Foxbats over Dimona' hogwash, just for example), very informative and trully a great read, it's lacking in multipe details, and thus drawing wrong conclusions again.

Decline in Egyptian military power of the 1960s was a self-inflicted affair, caused by Amer's corruption, nepotism, overcentralized command, and insistence on removing any officers that were showing even traces of own initative or of being 'warriors'. This was a process that resulted in obsolete and unrealistic military planning, near-idiotic procurrement decisions etc. What eventually happened to Egyptians in Yemen was a result of that failure, and not vice-versa - although there is little doubt that the costly war in Yemen has accelerated the bankrupcy of Egypt under Nasser in general.

And to come back to the original question: nope, I do not think that Egypt's experiences from Yemen in 1960s are relevant to Syria.

flagg
03-26-2015, 03:03 AM
Cheers Davidfpbo and CrowBat!

Thanks for the links, analysis, and commentary.

davidbfpo
04-03-2015, 10:02 AM
Scott Lucas has a short comment and starts with:
Last Saturday, after a four-day offensive, rebels captured Idlib in northwest Syria, the third provincial capital lost by the Assad regime in Syria’s four-year conflict. The five major lessons of Idlib for the winners (the rebels, the Islamist faction Jabhat al-Nusra), the losers (the Assad regime, mainstream media), and those on the side (the US, the Islamic State).
Link:http://eaworldview.com/2015/04/syria-special-5-lessons-from-the-rebel-victory-and-regime-defeat-in-idlib/

CrowBat
04-03-2015, 08:22 PM
'For the records': JAN - aka Jabhat an-Nusra - didn't capture Idlib alone.

It was just one part of the body named Jaysh al-Fatah. This is sort of 'temporary coalition' including Ahrar ash-Sham, JAN, Jund al-Aqsa, Faylaq ash-Sham, Ajnad ash-Sham, Liwa al-Haqq, Jaysh as-Sunnah and few others (mostly from the IF and the FSyA).

As can be seen by now, and contrary to plenty of expectations, the JAN didn't declare a 'caliphate' with capital in Idlib either. Reason: it's not alone in posession of that city. On the contrary, Ahrar ash-Sham is something like 'in charge' there, and they have said that all the citizens are to be treated in same fashion, no matter of their confession.

Correspondingly:

- the JAN is not the only 'winner' of that battle (which, BTW, is going on, with elements of Jaysh al-Fatah fighting at several points further south, including Ariha, al-Mastoumah etc.)

- describing the JAN - a group at least 50% of which are foreign Jihadists - as 'Islamists' makes one wonder how would that author call Ahrar (Salafists) and the IF (actual 'Islamists' here, in sense of being 'deeply religious Sunnis')?

- the 'Islamic State', aka Daesh, has no stakes in Idlib, because it was kicked out of there already in January 2014.

The USA even less so, especially since it abandoned the SRF and then the Hazzm, leaving them at the mercy of the JAN.

davidbfpo
05-12-2015, 10:56 AM
A Der Spiegel report that explains how a few Hazaras have been captured fighting for the Assad regime in Aleppo. Coerced mercenaries who no-one cares for. Plus a description of recent fighting in the city:
Exact numbers are hard to come by, but some 700 of them are thought to have lost their lives in Aleppo and Daraa alone. What's worse, most of them don't come completely on their own free will.
Link:http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/afghan-mercenaries-fighting-for-assad-and-stuck-in-syria-a-1032869.html

CrowBat
05-21-2015, 08:45 AM
The Daesh has de-facto overrun Palmyra, the last few days. They have certainly secured all the nearby gasfields, some of underground storage facilities outside the town, and most of the town by now.

The NDF (including the 18th Tank Battalion of the ex-SyAA) was forced to withdraw into the local air base and into magnificent ruins of ancient Palmyra (UNESCO's 'World Herritage Site'), where it's attempting to put up something like 'last ditch defence' now.

With most of local archeological sites looted (by the regime) already back in 2012, guess it's time to say farewell to some of local sights now too...

CrowBat
05-21-2015, 08:46 AM
Here few additional photos... (showing the oasis and the 'downtown' of the ancient city, including the famous Bell Temple)...

Firn
05-21-2015, 08:07 PM
Years ago I actually planned to make a tour into the larger region where so many human activities have left traces small and great. Destruction and war are nothing new, but I have to say that the degree of ideologic zeal of the current fanatics does stand out, and sadly not only compared to our information age.

As I have no idea about the current conflict I'm quite surprised that Palmyra has fallen so quickly to the Daesh, but then again so have many other, larger cities.

CrowBat
05-22-2015, 03:21 PM
Yes, the sudden fall of Palmyra is a surprise. On one side. On the other it's not. It's like Ramadi: local population is - or better said: was (then, I doubt many of them are going to survive the next few days) - staunchly anti-Assad. Neither Alawites nor Druze have any sympathies for them, while the Daesh is going to slaughter anybody it suspects for cooperation with the regime, or any kind of anti-Daesh thoughts.

Back in 2012, the regime brutally crushed the local uprisng and ever since held the area 'only' for reasons like:
- local air base was one of major links to Iran
- Palmyra lies on the road connecting Damascus with Dayr az-Zawr
- Palmyra is covering the eastern side of T-4 AB, the most important of all of Syria, and
- there is a large number of extensive underground storage depots around the town.

Now, when the regime lacks the troop strenght to fight there, it just run away. And the local population is going to pay dearly for regime's idiotic tactics of cooperating with the Daesh.

davidbfpo
05-23-2015, 11:22 AM
A short BBC article by SME on 'The challenge of assessing Syria's chemical weapons' when the regime has declared it has none:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32778193

He asks:
So is the Syria declaration complete? Are chemical weapons still being used in Syria? And why is it so difficult to monitor what weapons they still have?

(He concludes) But to prove the use of chlorine as a weapon, let alone determine the perpetrator, will be a huge challenge.The author is:
Jerry Smith is the former head of contingency operations at the OPCW. He was the deputy head of the OPCW-UN Joint Mission to Syria.Temporary thread for visibility. Chemical Weapons feature in several threads on Syria and that dreaded phrase 'red lines'.

Bill Moore
06-01-2015, 04:22 PM
This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. The moderate Syrians that we're training are threatening to quit if they're not allowed to fight Assad. Since Assad has killed tens of thousands of Syrians it is unrealistic (the nicest term I can come up with) to assume that the moderates will act as our proxies and only fight ISIS, while at the same time ignoring their other existential threat Assad. Another reason we should probably just stay out of this conflict with the current executive in the White House not leading. His policy advisors are certified idiots. Sadly, but understandably, MG Nagata has apparently resigned from leading the effort.

Exclusive: Key Rebels Ready to Quit U.S. Fight Vs. ISIS

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/31/key-rebels-ready-to-quit-u-s-fight-vs-isis.html


A centerpiece of the U.S. war plan against ISIS is in danger of collapsing. A key rebel commander and his men are ready to ready to pull out in frustration of the U.S. program to train a rebel army to beat back the terror group in Syria, The Daily Beast has learned.


“[My men] don’t want to be beholden to this policy because it can be used against them in Syria—that they’ve betrayed the revolution and now they’re just mercenaries for the coalition forces,” Sejari said.

If ISIS is our only concern, then we should have just supported Assad. It appears we're indirectly doing that anyway.

Bill Moore
06-02-2015, 12:10 PM
From the SWJ News roundup this morning.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/islamic-state-militants-open-major-new-offensive-in-aleppo/2015/06/01/9b834f64-085c-11e5-951e-8e15090d64ae_story.html

While nobody was looking, the Islamic State launched a new, deadly offensive


If the Islamic State seized the area, it would also extend its reach along the Turkish border, amplifying its capacity to secure supplies and smuggle in foreign fighters at a time when Turkey’s government has imposed severe restrictions on travelers along its 580-mile border with Syria.


The battle brought into focus the complexity of the war in Syria, where the Islamic State, the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the opposition and Syrian Kurds are fighting .

The opposition had been on the brink of launching an offensive to push weakened government troops out of the loyalist-
controlled portion of Aleppo city and were unprepared for the attack on their northern flank.

http://www.voanews.com/content/islamic-state-gains-in-syria-threaten-rebel-links-to-turkey/2803120.html

IS Gains in Syria Threaten Rebel Links to Turkey


Islamic extremists overran three towns in northern Syria this weekend, capturing them from Western-backed Free Syrian Army rebels and Islamist brigades as Syrian warplanes struck widely across the north of the country, dropping barrel bombs on towns controlled by both competing insurgent groups.

Despite FSA claims that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Islamic State, also known as ISIL, were coordinating their attacks, two of the biggest barrel bombs were dropped on the town of Al Bab, controlled by Islamic State.

As it has been long said, the truth is the first casualty in war. Is Assad coordinating with ISIL, or are resistance elements attempting to sway western opinion to change their existing policy that is at best ambivalent regarding Assad staying power, and at worst supports Assad staying in power?

castellanoc1
06-03-2015, 08:52 AM
Assad regime coordination with IS has been documented during many occasions during the conflict, with both sides content to eliminate rebel groups before turning full attention to each other. It seems that government forces have only confronted IS when key interests were at stake. Of course there are very notable exceptions including the IS seizure of Raqqa and most recently Palmyra from government control. It is very interesting seeing close coordination between IS and Assad so soon after Palmyra's loss.

In some respects however, the current partnership in northern Syria has been in both sides interests. The regime wants to halt continued rebel advances from the north at all costs. IS does as well, but for the likely reason of leaving additional regime controlled population centers available for attacks in the future. Indications continue to be received that western support for rebel forces is focused on developing capabilities against the IS threat, not for their operations against the Assad regime given. The US reportedly does not want to risk relations with Iran degrading to the point of US advisory operations in Iraq being under threat from Shia militia groups. There seems to be a lot going on in terms of relationships and shifting priorities to say the least.

davidbfpo
06-27-2015, 09:38 PM
Spioenkop's irregular blogs on the war are IMHO essential reading, especially when you read passages like this:
...the SyAAF remains largely unable to respond to actual developments, and often only joins the fray after the battle on the ground has been fought, better coordination between regime forces on the ground and SyAAF aircraft and helicopters in the sky is required to fully optimise the assests available at T4. Furthermore, the desperate revenge strikes flown by the SyAAF on recently lost towns could be stopped to spare not only the life of the many innocent civilians killed during these sorties, but also the precious airframes used in these useless sorties, with the wasted flight-hours instead allocated to supporting the regime's ground forces.Link:http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/fortress-t4-airbase-at-war.html

CrowBat
06-30-2015, 06:16 PM
...If ISIS is our only concern, then we should have just supported Assad. It appears we're indirectly doing that anyway.
...and commentary of this kind is exactly why those Assadists thugs have done whatever was possible to help create and support the growth and spread of the Daesh (in Syria, and in Iraq).

JWing
07-13-2015, 02:35 PM
I just posted this over in the Iraq thread but thought I should mention it here as well. I just did an interview with Fmr Amb. Robert Ford who was US Ambassador to Syria from 2011-2014. He talked about U.S. policy in both countries and what should be done. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/07/former-ambassador-robert-ford-reflects.html).

Bill Moore
08-01-2015, 09:40 PM
http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/capture-of-us-backed-syria-rebel-leader-a-setback-in-islamic-state-fight-1.360551

Capture of US-backed Syria rebel leader a setback in Islamic State fight


Islamic State extremists, al-Qaida’s branch in Syria has captured a commander of a new U.S.-trained anti-jihadist force and several fighters, according to Turkish officials and Syrian rebels


Shortly before his capture, Hassan had complained in an interview with The New York Times that the Pentagon had failed to provide night-vision goggles, had yet to announce an anti-Assad component to the fight and hadn’t made a clear pledge to the rebels to provide U.S. air support should they come under attack by the regime. He also told the newspaper that some fighters had threatened to quit over unpaid expenses.


I hope I’m giving you enough of a steer here,” Davis said. “I’m telling you I’m not disagreeing with the reports. If you want to report based on what you’ve seen, I don’t think you’re going to see the Department of Defense pushing back.”

At the State Department, spokesman Mark Toner said he wouldn’t use the word “setback” to describe the specific incident but acknowledged that “the train-and-equip program has been slow to get off the ground.”

Initially DOD denied the report, but now they have softened their tone. It appears the train and equip mission is in disarray. All of the complaints presented by Hassan point to why the U.S. is generally not effective in these types of operations since the Cold War ended. It has little to do with the talent of our intelligence operatives and Special Forces, and very much to do with our policies and bureaucracy.

Furthermore, by attempting to limit their action to fighting ISIL and not the regime, we created an unsustainable force. They have no cred with the populace the hail from; therefore no resilience (it isn't a self-sustaining movement that we helped mobilize, it is just a few proxies with a narrow mission).

Bill Moore
08-02-2015, 12:24 AM
http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/despite-bombing-islamic-state-is-no-weaker-than-a-year-ago-1.360651

Despite bombing, Islamic State is no weaker than a year ago


After billions of dollars spent and more than 10,000 extremist fighters killed, the Islamic State group is fundamentally no weaker than it was when the U.S.-led bombing campaign began a year ago, American intelligence agencies have concluded.


The Islamic State remains a well-funded extremist army able to replenish its ranks with foreign jihadis as quickly as the U.S. can eliminate them. Meanwhile, the group has expanded to other countries, including Libya, Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and Afghanistan.

The following shouldn't be a surprise to those that have studied the historical attempts to go after an adversary's money or cut off their resources. It always briefs well, but most adversaries are capable of adapting.


Oil continues to be a major revenue source. By one estimate, the Islamic State is clearing $500 million per year from oil sales, said Daniel Glaser, assistant secretary for terrorist financing at the Treasury Department. That's on top of as much as $1 billion in cash the group seized from banks in its territory.


Although the U.S. has been bombing oil infrastructure, the militants have been adept at rebuilding oil refining, drilling and trading capacity, the defense official said.

Bill Moore
08-03-2015, 12:42 AM
For all of you who claim the U.S. does not have strategy to defeat ISIL and bring stability to the Middle East read this:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/strategy-isis-defeat-board-game/400034/

Defeating ISIS: The Board Game


America’s strategy is substantially different from everyone else’s. President Barack Obama wants to defeat ISIS by not appearing to be the force defeating ISIS. This is a difficult task, particularly when your air force is the one carrying out most operations against ISIS targets. But Obama is an astute strategist. His plan centers on supporting Kurdish factions as he also supports Turkey which is now attacking the Kurds while also supporting Saudi Arabia in its war in Yemen which upsets Iran whom U.S. forces are collaborating with in fighting ISIS in Iraq as he simultaneously yields to pressure from allies to weaken Assad in Syria which complicates things further with Iran which he pacifies by signing the nuclear deal upsetting America’s traditional friend Israel whose anger is absorbed with shipments of advanced weapons escalating the arms race in the region.

CrowBat
08-04-2015, 05:52 AM
Hard to believe, but Hassan's capture did have one positive effect: US Jets to begin to target Syrian Forces IF they target pro-US Rebels (http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/US-jets-to-begin-to-target-Syrian-forces-if-they-target-pro-US-rebels-410953) (that is: NOT ONLY the regime...)

The United States has decided to allow airstrikes to defend Syrian rebels trained by the US military from any attackers, even if the enemies hail from forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad, US officials said on Sunday.

The decision by President Barack Obama, which could deepen the US role in Syria's conflict, aims to shield a still-fledging group of Syrian fighters armed and trained by the United States to battle Islamic State militants -- not forces loyal to Assad.
...

...and 'good to have' is also the http://airwars.org/ - a website dedicated to tracking the US-led campaign against the Daesh (in Iraq and in Syria).

davidbfpo
08-04-2015, 07:51 AM
A broad brush comment:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/04/syria-approaching-de-facto-partition-amid-assad-military-setbacks

The map has some puzzling areas and this copy loses the key. So red: ISIS, blue Assad regime, blue-green Kurds and light grey Other rebels.http://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2015/08/syria_control_map-zip/giv-30080giBrPHJoaySd/img/Syria_Control-2-0-0.png

JWing
08-05-2015, 05:24 PM
I'm going to triple post this because it relates to all three threads and hopefully no one will get sick of my repeating this.

I just published an article on Turkey's decision to join the US led coalition against IS. Gave reasons for the change and some analysis.

1) Basically Turkey is going to follow its own policy which conflicts with the U.S. Obama admini thinks it can change Erdogan's view in the long term while getting right to use Turkish bases in the short. Obama only has little more than a year in office however so Turkey will probably win out in the long run.

2) Turkey wants to punish the PKK/PYD into submission and make it a client like it's done to the KRG

3) Finally Turkey wants to give more direct aid to the Syrian rebel groups its supports like Al-Nusra with the Syrian Free Zone.

Here's a link to the full article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/turkey-agrees-to-go-to-war-with-islamic.html).

Bill Moore
08-08-2015, 06:04 PM
I'm going to triple post this because it relates to all three threads and hopefully no one will get sick of my repeating this.

I just published an article on Turkey's decision to join the US led coalition against IS. Gave reasons for the change and some analysis.

1) Basically Turkey is going to follow its own policy which conflicts with the U.S. Obama admini thinks it can change Erdogan's view in the long term while getting right to use Turkish bases in the short. Obama only has little more than a year in office however so Turkey will probably win out in the long run.

2) Turkey wants to punish the PKK/PYD into submission and make it a client like it's done to the KRG

3) Finally Turkey wants to give more direct aid to the Syrian rebel groups its supports like Al-Nusra with the Syrian Free Zone.

Here's a link to the full article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/turkey-agrees-to-go-to-war-with-islamic.html).

Joel,

When I read your blog posts I generally feel I'm getting the Paul Harvey "the rest of the story" that is lacking in mainstream media.

You wrote,
What Erdogan would like is to become the hegemon of the Kurds. The Kurdistan Regional Government for example, has become almost completely dependent upon Turkey economically via its pipeline. Turkey’s new attacks are likely focused upon the same goal to punish the PKK into submission, and in turn get it to limit the PYD’s expansion in Syria.

Turkey is using the U.S. to further its own goals vis a vis the Syrian rebels and PKK-PYD. Ankara wants to increase its support for the Syrian rebels, who it hopes will overthrow Pres. Assad, cajole the Syrian and Turkish Kurds into being pliant clients, while regaining the Obama administration’s favor

I don't want to come across as supporting Turkey, but I'm somewhat sympathetic to their view. They were opposed to our invasion of Iraq in 2003 and only provided limited support after much coercive diplomacy. The general U.S. military reaction was to get Turkey two thumbs down, but the mess we created, the mess they saw coming, was on their border and presented a much more significant threat to their national security interests than ours. The same can probably be said about the situation in Syria.

Their issue with the Kurds has been going on for decades. It would be nice if they could reach a political accommodation, but it seems they won't want to negotiate from a position of weakness, so possibly this is the reason for their choice of bed fellows in Syria?

What do you think Turkey's desired outcome in Syria is? Who do they desire to see running Syria after Assad is gone?

JWing
08-09-2015, 06:38 AM
Erdogan entered into talks with the Turkish Kurds several years ago. The PKK-PYD's advances in Syria made Erdogan worried that their Rojava autonomous region would gain more standing and change the power dynamics within Turkey as well. That led to the bombing campaign.

Syria is such a mess that Turkey is unlikely to achieve anything other than just adding to the chaos. Since Ankara has supported many of the Syrian rebels including the Islamist ones and the Islamic State it seems like anyone but Assad would be fine with them. Very short term thinking to me.

Bill Moore
08-09-2015, 09:16 PM
JWing wrote,


Syria is such a mess that Turkey is unlikely to achieve anything other than just adding to the chaos. Since Ankara has supported many of the Syrian rebels including the Islamist ones and the Islamic State it seems like anyone but Assad would be fine with them. Very short term thinking to me.

Perhaps, but I have a hard time believing they will accept anyone but Assad. What if it is another Iranian proxy? Is that really in Turkey's interest? The outdated clich that all politics are local certainly doesn't play in today's Syria, or what once was Syria. I wonder just how many different countries are providing aid to various proxies in Syria to pursue various ends, and how many of these countries have interests that overlap and conflict? The only country strong enough to pull anything together resembling a coalition is the U.S., but it appears to be a role we are unwilling to play.

I'm curious, do you buy the argument that Assad supports ISIL to garner international support for, or at least indecision regarding his regime? Some have argued on this forum that it is documented, but a lot of myths are documented. Is it fact or propaganda? This perception would be a valuable image for the anti-Assad groups to paint; on the other hand, if it is true then it seems we would need to adjust our strategy appropriately. If Assad supports ISIL, that implies that Iran is supporting ISIL, which doesn't add up, but then again it isn't completely improbable either.

I found your interview with former AMB Ford interesting, but I'm not as optimistic as he seems to be in U.S. leadership. That may be due to the lack of it in the current administration. We also generate so much internal friction within our own ranks that it is exceedingly hard for the U.S. to effectively use unconventional warfare as a policy tool. It not only requires clear policy guidance (certainly lacking in Syria), but sufficient resources to achieve the ends identified in the policy. Quoting AMB Ford,


In Syria, by contrast, the administration has always avoided working with the Syrian state or the opposition. It is not a secret that we have given a few armed opposition groups limited aid, but the accent has to be on the word "limited". Meanwhile, we have countenanced other countries' giving material aid to their client groups. The overall levels of aid have been far too small and thus armed opposition groups have competed with each other for scarce resources and foreign patronage. That is the key reason they are divided; withholding aid from them and allowing different countries to operate in a patron-client relationship has made them divided.


We could have built, and could still build, an effective Syrian armed opposition that would fight the Islamic State and Asad. The advances the armed opposition groups have made on the ground in 2015 after other regional countries increased their aid sharply shows what might have been done far earlier. But the most important thing to remember about our strategy in Syria that whatever we do has to aim at building support inside the Syrian government, inside the Syrian opposition and among the various international actors for a national political negotiation.

The area I highlighted is State speak for our desire to do the impossible. We want to lead without leading, and despite the amazing impact of soft power in other parts of the world, it seems to have little to no impact in this part of the world. We're half in and half out, and apparently having little impact on the overall condition there.

Bob's World
08-09-2015, 11:50 PM
Yes, the Sunni-Arab populations of Syria and Iraq both believe the Shia dominated governments over them offer no future. They also realize that the US removal of the Saddam regime served to extend Iranian led Shia influence across the region. In short, they know they are screwed unless they fix those two conditions.

AQ conducted UW among these populations, but what they offered was too theoretical. The US could have taken advantage of the opportunity with our own UW campaign, but we were too committed to our own solution we had crafted for Iraq, and did not want to take on the burden of attempting to implement a similar solution in Syria. Into this space came ISIS, offering something tangible and now. The stole the march of us both.

We are so worried about what we think is best for us, that we miss opportunities to help people get to what is best for them.

So now we kill 15,000 Sunnis with air strikes, and hope that moderate Sunnis will emerge to take out a Assad regime we don't much like, and equally to submit to an Iraqi government we hope will somehow succeed. How can anyone think that combination will earn us the trust of a Sunni population that we punish with one hand, while holding out empty promises in the other?

Bill Moore
08-10-2015, 12:20 AM
In broad agreement with your argument Bob, but


We are so worried about what we think is best for us, that we miss opportunities to help people get to what is best for them.

this comment is a little over the top. We should be concerned with what we want, we commit our national treasure to pursue national interests. If you slightly modified your comment, that we need to seek ways to align interests where that is possible then I would agree. In some cases that won't be possible; however, we tend to always default to stupid by buying the most cooperative warlord to facilitate short term tactical success (occasionally), but this approach almost always leads to strategic failure.

Bob's World
08-10-2015, 01:20 AM
Yes, we must operate based upon true interests; not the after the fact interests we use so often to rationalize poor decisions today.

Facilitating self determination, and garnering influence with whatever emerges; rather than seeking to control outcomes through some self-serving man or group willing to sell out their own to rise to power by playing to our fears, ego ignorance.

JWing
08-19-2015, 03:09 PM
Doing some cross posting here because this applies to 3 different forums.

I just collected together 10 different experts and got their opinions on how they believe the war against the Islamic State is going. That includes Ahmed Ali of the American University of Iraq-Sulaimani, J.M. Berger of the Brookings Institution, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Dr. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Aron Lund of Syria in Crisis, Alex Mello of Horizon Client Access, Douglas Ollivant of the New America Foundation, Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi of the Middle East Forum, Craig Whiteside of the Naval War College, and Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/08/how-is-war-against-islamic-state-going.html).

OUTLAW 09
09-02-2015, 11:39 AM
Has Russian now expanded their non linear war to include Syria---after the recent dust up between Russia and the KSA Foreign Minister who declared that Assad is the problem and must go.

Russia is attempting to rebrand Assad as this great anti IS fighter and Russia is doing everything it can to convince the US to support their proxy in his fight against IS BUT at the same time Russia has defined Assad a key ally.

BUT it now appears that Russia has place Russian boots on the ground and not said a single world--that can not have gone undetected by US intel.

Syria Nusra linked acc. posted pics of Russian made drone & jets flying over Western #Idlib. Huge if true. pic.twitter.com/1xPuUbD9an

davidbfpo
09-02-2015, 12:09 PM
Outlaw09,

I spotted this strange report via Twitter yesterday and was unsure as to its accuracy, partly as the website is new to me:http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4696268,00.html

The report starts with:
Russian fighter pilots are expected to begin arriving in Syria in the coming days, and will fly their Russian air force fighter jets and attack helicopters against ISIS and rebel-aligned targets within the failing state.
According to Western diplomats, a Russian expeditionary force has already arrived in Syria and set up camp in an Assad-controlled airbase. The base is said to be in area surrounding Damascus, and will serve, for all intents and purposes, as a Russian forward operating base.

In the coming weeks thousands of Russian military personnel are set to touch down in Syria, including advisors, instructors, logistics personnel, technical personnel, members of the aerial protection division, and the pilots who will operate the aircraft.

davidbfpo
09-03-2015, 08:51 PM
A longer article in The Daily Beast by Michael Weiss, who assmbles all the open source clues on Russian moves:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/01/russia-puts-boots-on-the-ground-in-syria.html

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 06:12 AM
Outlaw09,

I spotted this strange report via Twitter yesterday and was unsure as to its accuracy, partly as the website is new to me:http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4696268,00.html

The report starts with:

David---Russia is in fact on the ground regardless what the WH states--meaning they have no firm intel.

Highly suspect a GRU Spetsnaz Brigade as one is not being reported in the Ukraine which had fought there about six months ago. There has been silence around that unit and with their recent combat experience they would be the perfect fit to fly in.

Key evidence has been the BTR 80 photographed in a major combat op by the Syrians themselves--Russia has never given, issued, transferred the BTR-80 to anyone other than the Russian Army--even in the Ukraine it remains under control of the Russian troops.

Secondly--actually the Syrians themselves with a press release this week confirmed the Russian were in fact fighting with them ---in a 4 photo release.

The final key was the way the Russians responded via a press release from TASS--Russian info warriors only respond when pushed into a corner and then they try to change the narrative--in the case of the PR--we have always been there due to military agreements and supply contracts--Russia side stepped the actual accusation--you have troops/boots on the ground.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 06:37 AM
Yes the US intel and the WH know about the Russian flights into Syria.

To deny the first time leads one to the question--why??

Now they do because the social media has pounded this theme for the last three days.

US official confirmed that "Russia has asked for clearances for military flight to Syria" http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/white-house-monitoring-reports-russian-military-syria-1906900212#sthash.XI90ZZDJ.dpuf …

Secondly the just released new US sanctions on the Russian weapons exporter is for their weapon shipments to Syria, Iran and North Korea.

This came in via social media this morning----

Putin has troops in Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine and now Syria whose military doctrine is masked or hybrid warfare dedicated to destroy Europe.

Remember I keep repeating the mantra---Putin has three geo political goals.

1. discredit and damage NATO
2. discredit and damage the EU
3. completely disconnect the US from Europe

This move into Syria was clear from the recent Russian KSA press conference where Larvov called the KSA FM a blooming idiot in mild terms .

Russia desperately needs the naval port and presence in the ME and Syria gives that and Assad has been declared a critical proxy thus their moves right now.

Why--militarily speaking Assad is in fact losing and losing badly and the Russians are trying to get a deal to allow him to leave with them still controlling who will follow him.

They are trying to sucker the US into helping them rebrand him this great defender of the faith against IS AFTER Russia allowed over 1000 Russian jihadi's to leave Russia to join IS.

Putin is playing the legacy card with Obama---you help me in the Ukraine and I can help you in Syria and against the IS.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 06:48 AM
Yes the US intel and the WH know about the Russian flights into Syria.

To deny the first time leads one to the question--why??

Now they do because the social media has pounded this theme for the last three days.

US official confirmed that "Russia has asked for clearances for military flight to Syria" http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/white-house-monitoring-reports-russian-military-syria-1906900212#sthash.XI90ZZDJ.dpuf …

Secondly the just released new US sanctions on the Russian weapons exporter is for their weapon shipments to Syria, Iran and North Korea.

This came in via social media this morning----

Putin has troops in Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine and now Syria whose military doctrine is masked or hybrid warfare dedicated to destroy Europe.

Remember I keep repeating the mantra---Putin has three geo political goals.

1. discredit and damage NATO
2. discredit and damage the EU
3. completely disconnect the US from Europe

This move into Syria was clear from the recent Russian KSA press conference where Larvov called the KSA FM a blooming idiot in mild terms .

Russia desperately needs the naval port and presence in the ME and Syria gives that and Assad has been declared a critical proxy thus their moves right now.

Why--militarily speaking Assad is in fact losing and losing badly and the Russians are trying to get a deal to allow him to leave with them still controlling who will follow him.

They are trying to sucker the US into helping them rebrand him this great defender of the faith against IS AFTER Russia allowed over 1000 Russian jihadi's to leave Russia to join IS.

Putin is playing the legacy card with Obama---you help me in the Ukraine and I can help you in Syria and against the IS.

BTW the US intel is playing a very interesting game lately--when social media grabs a topic and verifies it a number of different ways--then when the US intel is asked to confirm or deny--they say absolutely nothing thus allowing the social media OSINT to stand on it's own.

Social media OSINT has come into it's own via the Ukraine events and MH17.

Some are saying US intel OSINT teams simply watch what social media is digging up and then simply report it as then a classified version that can be in analyzing other INTs.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 06:50 AM
Notice the interplay between social media open source analysis and MSM in certain areas--ie aviation.

The first report came from social media and then The Aviationist picked it up and ran with it.

The Aviationist » These photos suggest Russian Air Force jets and drones are already operating against ISIS in Syria http://theaviationist.com/2015/09/02/russians-against-isis-over-syria/ …

Why did I previously say the GRU Spetsnaz Brigade is in Syria--they have their own drone company assigned to them.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 07:02 AM
This is the Syria combat video social media picked up on indicating Russian troops/boots on the ground in Syria----

#Breaking - #Russian soldiers were viewed in #Zabadani while fighting for #Assad regime. #Syria pic.twitter.com/tZn3rXP52n

VIDEO supposedly showing #Russia(n) troops fighting in #Syria https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttqTm6C3rjM … pic.twitter.com/RKTe4oTNqR

Russia (#Assad supporter) holds up start of UN #Syria chemical weapons probe http://www.france24.com/en/20150903-russia-holds-start-un-syria-chemical-weapons-probe?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2015-09-03&dlvrit=66745 … #Putin #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/2y9Ud9sPOg

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 09:47 AM
Notice the Russian non linear masking operation---same as there are no Russian troops in the eastern Ukraine BUT only contract professional GRU/Spetsnaz which does not count.

Report: Russian troops embedded with Syrian military http://www.newsweek.com/why-putin-sending-troops-syria-368436 …

Putin: "Es ist verfrüht, um über russische Soldaten in Syrien zu sprechen."
Dann sprechen wir wohl später darüber.

Putin stated it is to early to talk about Russian troops in Syria--we will talk about it later.

BTW--about four months ago the anti Assad Islamists captured a major Russian intel collection center which had been manned and run by GRU/Spetsnaz and was supporting the Assad army with intel on the Islamists fighting them.

BTW--it barely made any waves in the mainstream press.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 09:55 AM
http://www.newsweek.com/why-putin-sending-troops-syria-368436

This article first appeared on the Council on Foreign Relations site.

Why Is Putin Sending Troops to Syria?

By Elliott Abrams 9/3/15 at 3:16 PM


Most Americans are aware of the aggressive Russian actions in recent years in Ukraine (seizing Crimea and participating in efforts to destabilize the rest of the country) and Eastern Europe. What is less well known is Putin’s effort in Syria.

A story by Michael Weiss in The Daily Beast tells us what is actually happening, as its title conveys: “Russia Puts Boots on the Ground in Syria.” Not only is Russia arming the Assad regime, but there is now evidence that Russians are on the ground with Assad’s forces actually operating the equipment.

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Weiss refers to “compelling evidence that Russians have embedded with the Syrian military.” Assad recently told Hezbollah’s TV station that “We have strong confidence in the Russians, as they have proven throughout this crisis, for four years, that they are sincere and transparent in their relationship with us,” and he appears to be right.

Russia’s involvement is growing very fast. Alex Fishman, one of Israel’s best military correspondents, reported this on August 31:

Russian fighter pilots are expected to begin arriving in Syria in the coming days, and will fly their Russian air force fighter jets and attack helicopters against ISIS and rebel-aligned targets within the failing state.

According to Western diplomats, a Russian expeditionary force has already arrived in Syria and set up camp in an Assad-controlled airbase. The base is said to be in area surrounding Damascus, and will serve, for all intents and purposes, as a Russian forward operating base. In the coming weeks thousands of Russian military personnel are set to touch down in Syria, including advisors, instructors, logistics personnel, technical personnel, members of the aerial protection division and the pilots who will operate the aircraft.

Past reports have stated that the Russians were in talks to sell the Syrians a package of MiG-29 fighter jets, and Yak-130 trainer jets (which can also serve as attack aircraft.) The current makeup of the expeditionary force is still unknown, but there is no doubt that Russian pilots flying combat missions in Syrian skies will definitely change the existing dynamics in the Middle East.

This contradicts the happy talk we’ve long had from the Obama administration, suggesting that Russia could be a partner in Syria and part of the solution there. Instead, Putin appears to be doubling down on his support for Assad.

Meanwhile, the United States is insisting that rebel groups it works with and arms must not attack the regime, despite its endless war crimes and attacks on civilians; they must attack only ISIS instead. What the administration still refuses to acknowledge is that the Assad regime is a jihadi manufacturing device, whose brutality largely explains the growth of ISIS.

As long as Assad is in place, ISIS will grow; Assad’s attacks on Syria’s Sunni population mean that he serves as a recruiter for ISIS. Because our central goal is the defeat of ISIS, we must work to remove the Assad regime, but its survival still seems to be the central Russian goal—as it is the central Iranian goal.

So American and Russian goals in Syria could not be more at odds. Putin’s actions to expand Russia’s military support for Assad suggest that he understands this. The question is when we will recognize that fact.

Elliott Abrams is senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 10:25 AM
So let's see just how both the US and Russia are handling the charge that Russian boots are on the ground and fighting in Syria----.

1. US first denies any knowledge, then they are monitoring Russian military flights. BUT only After social media gets adamant Russians are fighting in Syria.

2. Russia and Putin openly state in true Ukrainian fashion--it ain't us it must be the Ukrainians............

3. Even the Russian info warrior TASS gets into the fray and denies any Russians are fighting.

BUT leave it up to social media to do their due diligence.............

Soldiers speaking Russian in Syria 2:05-2:10 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdX1DRwyvhE&feature=youtu.be … pic.twitter.com/oHnfpC67gc

BTW--80% of all intelligence is OSINT--open source--this confirms it yet again.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 10:35 AM
Remember Kosovo war in 1999?
1 million Albanians left Kosovo due to ethnic cleansing by Milosevich

What did Clinton and US Congress do?
They removed Milosevich from power.
Problem solved

And Russia keeps throwing that in the face of the US –they claim that it broke international law BUT do and or did you hear Russian say a single word about 1M Albanians refugees and now they claim to be the world's greatest experts on how to handle migrants flows--heck they create them.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 10:37 AM
Russian troops and heavy equipment are on the more to Syria.

Two Russian navy's large landing ships were seen crossing the Bosphorus yesterday, allegedly heading to Tartus

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 10:39 AM
Fact: every time when rebels launch new assault in #Damascus- regime bombing #Douma suburb in response bc heart of revolution

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 10:46 AM
Remember Kosovo war in 1999?
1 million Albanians left Kosovo due to ethnic cleansing by Milosevich

What did Clinton and US Congress do?
They removed Milosevich from power.
Problem solved

And Russia keeps throwing that in the face of the US –they claim that it broke international law BUT do and or did you hear Russian say a single word about 1M Albanians refugees and now they claim to be the world's greatest experts on how to handle migrants flows--heck they create them.

Taken from social media account--- Malcolmite @Malcolmite


It's amazing 99% of Syrian refugees in Turkey I spoke to said Assad is the reason for their misery, not one said ISIS

ISIS were only secondary to Assad. They always said "remove Assad & ISIS would be removed easily, it's Assad that helped establish them"

almost every Syrian I met lost a friend or a family member & saw unspeakable brutality from the Assad regime that never makes the press

the racist things other fellow Arabs would say about Syrian refugees in Turkey was also very disheartening.

I argued rationally with them but they always go back to the civil war & what the Assad regime did to the Lebanese ppl

many Arabs (especially Lebanese) hold Syrians all accountable for the crimes of the Assad family in Lebanon

religious Turks saw it as duty 2 help fellow Muslims & happy 2 take in Syrian refugees but secular right wing & left were 100% against it

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 11:42 AM
Russian troops and heavy equipment are on the more to Syria.

Two Russian navy's large landing ships were seen crossing the Bosphorus yesterday, allegedly heading to Tartus

Russian Navy Landing ships heading south. Ropucha's 142 Novocherkassk & 130 Korolev has some extra cargo on fr deck

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 12:02 PM
Under the rubric to little to late---is this the reason for Russian boots on the ground--to ensure Assad survives until his so called snap elections and so called power sharing??????

Had Russia decided four years to support power sharing there might have been a chance to save their proxy Assad—but they did not and after the diplomatic dust up at the press conference recently with the KSA Russia has been racing in trying to figure out a way to rescue Assad—militarily he is doomed as the IS and other Islamists and moderate Syria groups are winning on the ground.


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/russia-says-syrias-assad-ready-to-share-power-with-opposition/529382.html

Russia Says Syria's Assad Ready to Share Power with Opposition
Reuters
Sep. 04 2015 10:13
Last edited 10:14


Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is ready to hold snap parliamentary elections and could share power with "healthy" opposition.

Putin's comments are the closest in weeks to outlining what Moscow might see as an acceptable way forward on dealing with Assad. Russia, along with Iran, has been Assad's key international ally in the war that has been raging in Syria for four-and-a-half years and in which a quarter of a million people have been killed.

Moscow has made clear it does not want to see Assad toppled and has seized on gains made by Islamic State in Syria and Iraq to urge his foreign foes, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, to work with Damascus to combat the common enemy.

"We really want to create some kind of an international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism," Putin told journalists on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia's Far East hub of Vladivostok, adding he had spoken to U.S. President Barack Obama on the matter.

"We are also working with our partners in Syria. In general, the understanding is that this uniting of efforts in fighting terrorism should go in parallel to some political process in Syria itself," Putin said. "And the Syrian president agrees with that, all the way down to holding early elections, let's say, parliamentary ones, establishing contacts with the so-called healthy opposition, bringing them into governing."

Moscow wants the U.S.-led coalition carrying out air strikes on Islamic State positions to coordinate with the Syrian and Iraqi armies and moderate anti-Assad rebel groups on the ground, as well as Kurdish forces.

Assad's foes have refused to cooperate with Damascus, fearing that would help legitimise his rule in Syria, where the West and Gulf states say he is part of the problem, not the solution, and must go.

A flurry of recent high-level diplomatic contacts have so far failed to yield a breakthrough on the key point of contention in the conflict.

"If it's impossible today to organize joint work directly on the battle field between all those countries interested in fighting terrorism, it's indispensable to at least establish some sort of coordination between them," Putin said.

He added the chiefs of general staff of armed forces of countries "sitting close" to the conflict visited Moscow recently on that.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 12:26 PM
Putin's three geo political goals are;

1. discredit and damage NATO
2. discredit and damage the EU
3. completely disconnect the US from Europe

This statement goes to point three--disconnect the EU from the US

Putin: EU “blindly” followed US in forcing standards on Mid East + N Africa, now “bears the load” of refugee crisis: http://www.1tv.ru/news/polit/291554 …

Notice Putin stated nothing concerning the Russian military support and jets to the Assad military and his military fighting with Assad as a possible explanation of the Syrian refugee flows.

This is the standard Russian mantra for over a year--it is the fault of everyone else but not Russia--surprised he has not attempted to blame it on the Ukrainians.

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 06:11 PM
RU military-info portal claims to have detailed "own info" on RU army's presence in Syria. http://military-informant.com/news/rossiyskie-voyska-stremitelno-prodvigayutsya-v-okrestnostyah-goroda-latakiya.html …

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 06:31 PM
and don't forget the Russian and Iranian weapons/merecenaries who have fueled the Syrian war from the beginning https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/639852034754281473 …

Not just Obama's failure in Syria, also UK & Europe. Had there just been a no-fly-zone to stop the barrel bombs etc. https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/639746166700285953 …

Iraq, Tal Kaif, Daesh with an 9K115-2 Metis-M ATGM "9K115-2" -> GRAU designation / NATO code is AT-13Saxhorn-2
IS has modern Russian ATMs where did they come from?????

Such a coincidence that Assad's opponents keep getting assassinated!
Syria: The anti-Regime Druze leader Wahideddine al-Balous assassinated in #Suwaydaa city few hours ago. pic.twitter.com/6PP67w7M6c

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 06:44 PM
Under the rubric to little to late---is this the reason for Russian boots on the ground--to ensure Assad survives until his so called snap elections and so called power sharing??????

Had Russia decided four years to support power sharing there might have been a chance to save their proxy Assad—but they did not and after the diplomatic dust up at the press conference recently with the KSA Russia has been racing in trying to figure out a way to rescue Assad—militarily he is doomed as the IS and other Islamists and moderate Syria groups are winning on the ground.


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/russia-says-syrias-assad-ready-to-share-power-with-opposition/529382.html

Russia Says Syria's Assad Ready to Share Power with Opposition
Reuters
Sep. 04 2015 10:13
Last edited 10:14

Druze (not Islamic) leader assassinated today, presumably by Assad's regime forces, what a coincidence when they propose to negotiate a deal

Assad's preferred method of dispute resolution https://twitter.com/elizrael/status/639865468057088000 …

OUTLAW 09
09-04-2015, 08:26 PM
Novorossiа-Syrian mission of the Armed Forces of Russia- via @InformNapalm https://translate.google.com.ua/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=https://informnapalm.org/12284-novorossyjsk-syryjska-komandyrovka-vs-rf&prev=search … (Google Transltd) pic.twitter.com/OJ3nES7ecC

Footage
Rebel-besieged #ISIS terrorist blows himself up north of #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxqhqq-5y6Q …
pic.twitter.com/kDxUu8EKQw

Footage
Syrian rebels recapture parts of #Marea from #ISIS.
Reportedly (conf. by ISIS) with #US air cover.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teoEOq9NN28 …

Awesome video of Jaysh al-Fath troops storming Tall al-Khirba NE al-Fu'a #Idlib early today.
https://youtu.be/ptSujg3k1ao pic.twitter.com/le7jUCOILM

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 08:06 AM
Please, Please, Please do not tell me there is any truth in this article by CBS---AFTER literally billions spent on IRS equipment, satellites, and spy planes to chase jihadi's, drugs and explosives in Iraq and AFG AND they did not see this coming---come on.........

Social media has been carrying the potential of this for months just from their view of OSINT.

David Martin/ CBS News/ September 4, 2015, 7:06 PM

Is Russia ramping up its presence in Syria?



WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon is monitoring a scenario with ominous implications: the prospect of American and Russian warplanes fighting on opposite sides in the skies over Syria.

In a development that caught U.S. intelligence by surprise, Russia has set up an air traffic control tower and modular housing units for hundreds of personnel at an airfield near Syria's Mediterranean port of Latikia.

At the same time, Russia has requested the necessary over-flight rights to fly military cargo aircraft into the airfield.

Some U.S. intelligence analysts believe Russia is preparing to insert combat aircraft into Syria, presumably to conduct strikes against rebel forces threatening its longtime ally, the regime of Bashar al Assad.

One U.S. official said Russian military intervention in Syria would be a game changer, among other things raising the possibility of run-ins with U.S. warplanes conducting air strikes against ISIS in Syria.

However, other analysts caution Russia could simply be gearing up for a humanitarian relief operation for the tens of thousands of Syrian civilians forced by the fighting to flee their homes.

Appearing at an economic conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that although he continues to supply the Assad regime with arms, military intervention in Syria is "not yet on our agenda."

Given Putin's track record of denying Russia's military involvement in Ukraine, U.S. officials say they are not putting much stock in his public statements about Syria.


NOTICE--did anyone notice that even CBS is playing an info war game with their coverage--they could have referenced the Aviationist photos and social media photos of Russian fighter aircraft in the same air space as a Russian drone OR mentioned the two large Russian naval landing ships that cleared Turkey yesterday headed to Syria with even tarped cargo on deck.

OR mentioned the one social media video with a five second burst of Russian being spoken in the middle of a firefight between Assad troops and anti Assad forces--NO nothing--absolutely nothing--ever wonder why????

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 08:33 AM
Putin senses no actually knows that Obama is a weak President only interested in his legacy and has no intentions in directly challenging Putin either in the Ukraine and or Syria;

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
It's not the mass deployment reported elsewhere, but Russia clearly feeling much bolder about more than "just political" support for Assad.

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Kremlin line used to be support for Syria was "routine" and arms deliveries simply fulfilment of existing contracts. http://bit.ly/1Ng8AVY

Though Obamas inactions, non actions, missed actions ie red lines—the ME is in total chaos in a way it never was under Bush 2. The Iran deal did not help either.

DID anyone notice Russia announced a second nuclear plant to start construction even before the Iran deal was even put into effect—effectively breaking the economic sanctions regime.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 08:35 AM
Russia has sent a military advance team to Syria http://nyti.ms/1OjJanr

Putin "There are no Russian soldiers in Syria. Just local camel drivers "
Photo of Russian soldier in Syria----
pic.twitter.com/SNMWKwuHul

Russian soldiers got lost in #Syria.... WTH? Don't they have GPS on their phone? https://twitter.com/svaboda/status/640071114711019521 …

Crimean Marine arrived in Syria to defend Assad pic.twitter.com/Ha1KAclhRr

Russian soldier in Syria---photo taken from Russian VK social media—photo of him in Russia and then in Syria-
mobile.nytimes.com/2015/09/05/world/middleeast/russian-moves-in-syria-pose-concerns-for-us.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0&referrer= …
pic.twitter.com/HwQuvPf2aA
pic.twitter.com/K9SlabIeH2

World grieves plight of refugees, Russia increase support to Assad's killing machine. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11845635/Vladimir-Putin-confirms-Russian-military-involvement-in-Syrias-civil-war.html …

The truth is that Assad has killed so many people, mathematically speaking, ISIS leadership is the less deadly alternative. Imagine.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 08:37 AM
Julian Rpcke @JulianRoepcke

It is "far it's premature to talk about" Russian troops in #Syria.

- Vladimir Putin, 4.9.2015

Photo of two Russian marines in Syria----

pic.twitter.com/EUJp3pByTM

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 08:40 AM
Has Obama and his weak foreign policy actually issued a Putin get out of jail free pass????

Seems Russia's gotten free pass to increase weapons & advisors to Assad because of ISIS threat http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11845635/Vladimir-Putin-confirms-Russian-military-involvement-in-Syrias-civil-war.html … pic.twitter.com/zlYXFGfcdF

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 08:55 AM
More Russian boots on the ground in Syria----VK photo album.

Russian Soldiers in Syria. Photo Album. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1640256089586037&set=pcb.1640258929585753&type=1&theater … pic.twitter.com/7fp7cR6JPQ

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 09:24 AM
More Russian photos of so called "Russian camel drivers" as advisors in a number of Syrian locations----

More likely GRU Spetsnaz camel drivers.

pics are from three other locations too, some them looks like "more than security" pic.twitter.com/EtdoWy7Jh7

Russian soldiers disembarking in Syria to support Assad's regime. Via @uanews3 pic.twitter.com/qhKyVGr38Y

Russian non linear warfare is alive and well in Syria----

Putin's little green man on holidays/lost in Syria. https://twitter.com/ObichniyChell/status/640078242012110848 …

tons of pics here: https://www.facebook.com/NikolayMahno/photos …

Photo of Russian troops in Syria
Read more at: http://defence-blog.com/army/photo-of-russian-troops-in-syria.html … pic.twitter.com/pmpdjAAGVe

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 09:31 AM
Russian troops actively involved in direct fighting inside Syria already in JULY 2015---

FB page of a #Russia|n soldier in #Syria apparently incl. pics from #Homs, July 2015. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1640251656253147&set=pcb.1640258929585753&type=1&permPage=1 … pic.twitter.com/n8VAjiEMTR

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 09:33 AM
Russian troops actively involved in direct fighting inside Syria already in JULY 2015---

FB page of a #Russia|n soldier in #Syria apparently incl. pics from #Homs, July 2015. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1640251656253147&set=pcb.1640258929585753&type=1&permPage=1 … pic.twitter.com/n8VAjiEMTR

BEGS an important question--HAS in fact Obama thrown the Ukraine under the bus for Putin's support in Iran and now in Syria---Obama says nothing about the Ukraine nor now Syria--notice the massive silence???

Appears he has in fact thrown the Ukraine under the bus--there can be no other explanation.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 09:34 AM
And after they got lost in Ukraine, Russian soldiers mistakenly stumbled into Syria:
https://www.facebook.com/NikolayMahno/photos …

THIS is just how long social media has been tracking Assad and Russian involvement in Syria--two years and counting AND the US intel is surprised--come on get real.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 09:46 AM
The case in Syria is not terrorism or refugees
The case that we wanted our lives back, but Assad regime refused and killed 300000 of us

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 02:09 PM
Thorough analysis of the (increased) Russian presence in Syria: http://goo.gl/vvtb1R
via @MorbidYoung pic.twitter.com/r3qGBYhyZW

MORE IMAGES of #Russia(n) soldiers in #Syria fully armed with weapons (fighting for Assad) pic.twitter.com/c6WAu7QpPl

Russian volunteers, self-defence, little green men, polite people, tractor drivers and miners now spotted in Syria. https://twitter.com/raging545/status/640118444109754368 …

Who is killing the majority of Syrians? Nope, not ISIS. Wake up. pic.twitter.com/RIdk4SIvju

Remind me again who benefits by radicalizing Europe's far right by dumping thousands, soon millions of destitute Muslim refugees in the EU.

Of course Putin's gonna go all in for Assad...what price will Obama make Russia pay for that? Oh, right ...

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 02:11 PM
Who knew outsourcing US policy in Syria to Moscow would have such consequences? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11845635/Vladimir-Putin-confirms-Russian-military-involvement-in-Syrias-civil-war.html …

US detects delivery of new Russian air traffic control system, prefab housing at #Syria mil airfield http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/09/05/world/middleeast/russian-moves-in-syria-pose-concerns-for-us.html?referrer= … via @gordonnyt

Great post on Russian troops in Syria by Russian activist @RuslanLeviev (in Ru) http://ruslanleviev.livejournal.com/38293.html pic.twitter.com/vncAibkN2F

IS trolls are celebrating the entry of Russia into the fighting has further proof of “their Great war”.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 02:40 PM
Obama, his NSC and the entire US IC needs to check in with social media about Russian troops on the ground and fighting in Syria.

Syria, Latakia. New Russian APC-82A, Slavic voice
Сирия, Латакия. Новейший российский БТР-82А, славянская речь
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=23&v=n9jPNxHf3BI …

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 02:54 PM
Contact with Jaish al-Islam in Damascus suburbs can further US goals says @FaysalItani http://buff.ly/1hyql57 @acmideast


Despite the many external players involved, the Syrian war is ultimately a local conflict. In "Seizing Local Opportunities in Syria," authors Faysal Itani of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center and Co-Founder of People Demand Change Bassam Barabandi identify three opportunities on the ground for the United States to develop partnerships with segments of the Syrian population. By taking advantage of these openings, the United States can help further its goals of facilitating a lasting political transition and weakening jihadists in Syria. These opportunities include encouraging a Sunni-Druze coalition in the south and an Arab-Kurdish one in the north, as well as deepening contact with Jaish al-Islam (JAI) in the Damascus suburbs of Eastern Ghouta.

Itani and Barabandi present actionable insights and concrete recommendations that align fully with the US objectives of defeating violent extremists and facilitating an inclusive political transition that preserves as much governance capability as possible.

The authors explain how the United States can facilitate a rebel-Druze alliance in the south by providing the Druze security guarantees and linking the level of US material support to the insurgents to their respecting Druze territorial red lines. This would help Druze and other minorities recognize they need not choose between the Assad regime and jihadists, thereby narrowing the regime's support base and broadening participation in a political transition.

In the north, the authors recommend helping to strengthen the relationship between the Arabs and the Kurds by increasing the US partnership with the Arabs, while also supporting local governance in areas under Arab-Kurdish control. This would enable greater territorial gains on the frontlines with the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS or ISIL) and create a balance of power more palatable to the Arabs and Turkey resulting in a more durable Arab-Kurd partnership.

In Eastern Ghouta, the authors acknowledge JAI as a strong but problematic actor, and encourage engagement to curb its worst excesses and to increase pressure on the regime. They contend that an isolated yet still powerful JAI would pose a greater problem than one with which the United States had substantive relations.

Through each of these local opportunities, Itani and Barabandi demonstrate how the United States can apply pressure on the regime and its patrons by broadening the support base against both the regime and jihadists. Their recommended steps could thereby hasten an end to the civil war while helping to bring about a more inclusive and enduring political settlement.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 03:14 PM
Julian Rpcke @JulianRoepcke
Just to let you know.
Rebels recaptured all of #Marea from ISIS.
Terrorists remain just outside the town.

Putin with Iran will create panic in the Middle East to prop-up oil prices. (VIDEO)
http://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/2015/09/02/former-chess-champ-kasparov-fears-putin-can-turn-middle-east-ablaze/ pic.twitter.com/f8N2E9BHZ6

Interactive map shows the Syrian #refugeecrisis by the numbers http://mashable.com/2015/09/05/syrian-refugees-europe/#:eyJzIjoidCIsImkiOiJfN2hmMGJleHU2OHNoMHBkcSJ9 via @mashable

Supposedly the Tsezar Kunikov...added 2 September...caption: "Again to Syria" pic.twitter.com/5g8CIpr9w9

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 04:30 PM
http://gcssi.org/wp2/?p=5150

Russian troops began a rapid advance in Syria.


The attached video is visible Russian military equipment, but the soldiers maybe are Russian Muslims. While it may be specially fabricated for the West misinformation./ – GCSSI.

Today, 14:11 – 04/09/2015


A successful joint operation of Russian and Syrian troops near the city of Latakia allowed them to move up to 20 kilometers.

After arriving in Syria limited Russian military contingent has supported the government forces of the country, which will significantly increase the Damascus-controlled territory.

As the portal “Military informant” with reference to its sources, the Russian artillery provided assistance to the Syrian army in the offensive on rebel positions in the area of the port city of Latakia. After successful neutralization of pockets of rebel groups in the northern part of the city, the combined troops advanced 20 kilometers. At this point in the region of Latakia are active Russian Air Force. Watch the video

Recall that on August 12 Russian soldiers have been seen in the village Slanfeh (Slanfeh), near Latakia, where they take part in the creation of defensive positions to protect against the advancing Islamists who threaten the nearby Alawite settlements.

Damascus has given permission for the construction of the Russian military base in the second Jableh. This small town is located 25 kilometers to the south of Latakia, which is the largest port of Syria and the administrative center of the Syrian province, mainly populated by Muslims, Alawites. They are in favor of the ruling Syrian Baath Party, headed by President Bashar al-Assad, and therefore are targeted by Islamic militants.

Move troops in Syria earlier confirmed the Pentagon and Turkey. The latter announced a substantial increase in Russian courts in the direction of Syria.

In the Western media claimed that foreign intelligence established the fact of transfer Moscow to Syria multirole fighters and attack helicopters, along with reconnaissance drones.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 04:38 PM
Thorough analysis of the (increased) Russian presence in Syria: http://goo.gl/vvtb1R
via @MorbidYoung pic.twitter.com/r3qGBYhyZW

MORE IMAGES of #Russia(n) soldiers in #Syria fully armed with weapons (fighting for Assad) pic.twitter.com/c6WAu7QpPl

Russian volunteers, self-defence, little green men, polite people, tractor drivers and miners now spotted in Syria. https://twitter.com/raging545/status/640118444109754368 …

Who is killing the majority of Syrians? Nope, not ISIS. Wake up. pic.twitter.com/RIdk4SIvju

Remind me again who benefits by radicalizing Europe's far right by dumping thousands, soon millions of destitute Muslim refugees in the EU.

Of course Putin's gonna go all in for Assad...what price will Obama make Russia pay for that? Oh, right ...


Assad has killed more Syrians than ISIS. Russia, Iran keeping Assad in power. http://wpo.st/GgWZ0 @RutheniaRus

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 04:40 PM
Humor--pointed---

Sending Russians soldiers to fight for Assad is really going to make the Saudis help with the oil price.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 05:15 PM
Hybrid war humour:
Russian soldier's mama: 'Son, you be careful in Donetsk'
Son: 'Don't worry, mama. I'm already in Damascus'
@MarkGaleotti

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 05:27 PM
Putin again is lying to the West ----Russian troops fighting in Homs Syria already in April 2015.


Homs geotagged photo was uploaded June 9th. It's not the original, here's same from April. https://vk.com/wall-75950793?offset=80&own=1&z=photo-75950793_363465725%2Fwall-75950793_5614 … pic.twitter.com/Ob7VRyoqYW

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 05:37 PM
Really good open source analysis on a video which has come out of Syria--was done originally in Russian--now in English.

Руслан Левиев @RuslanLeviev

Are there Russian troops in Syria and are they involved in fighting there? Our investigation: http://ruslanleviev.livejournal.com/38649.html pic.twitter.com/mNyBMoyAQK

Specifically, pro-Assad sites saying Russian Sukhoi's targeted "Army of Conquest" in Idlib.

Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti
#Russian marines guarding bases, flying drones + driving APCs in #Syria: 1st rate investig by @RuslanLeviev & co
http://ruslanleviev.livejournal.com/38649.html

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 05:58 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/05/exposing-russia-s-secret-army-in-syria.html?via=mobile&source=twitter

NOW YOU SEE THEM

09.05.151:27 PM ET

Exposing Russia’s Secret Army in Syria


Some wear uniforms, some don’t, but from highway checkpoints to jet fighters, Russians are being spotted all over the Assad dictatorship’s heartland.

Russian military officers are now in Damascus and meeting regularly with Iranian and Syrian counterparts, according to a source with close contacts in the Bashar al-Assad regime. “They’re out in restaurants and cafes with other high officials in the Syrian Army,” the source told The Daily Beast, “mainly concentrated in Yaafour and Sabboura, areas that are close to each other, and in west Mezze,” referring to a district in the capital where Assad’s praetorian Fourth Armored Division keeps an important airbase. “The Russians aren’t in uniform, but they’re constantly hanging out with officers from the Syrian Army’s central command.”

Other Syrians claim to have seen Russians in uniform.

One family recently traveled from Aleppo to Damascus by taxi before emigrating by plane to Turkey and says it saw a small contingent of Russian troops embedded with Syrians at a military checkpoint in the capital. “We were near the Shaghour district when we noticed two soldiers who were not Syrian,” a family representative said. “They were tall, blonde and blue-eyed and wore different fatigues from the Syrians and carried weapons. I’m telling you, they were Russian.”

The opposition-linked website All4Syria seems to corroborate such eyewitness accounts. Many residents of Damascus, it claimed, have “observed in the first three days of September a noticeable deployment of Iranian and Russian elements in the neighborhoods of Baramkeh, al-Bahsa, and Tanzim Kfarsouseh.” The Venezia Hotel in al-Bahsa “has been turned into a military barracks for the Iranians.”

Such news comes amid a flurry of reports that Russia has made plans for a direct military intervention in Syria’s four-year civil war and may actually have started one already. The New York Times reported Saturday that Russia has sent prefabricated housing units, capable of sheltering as many as 1,000 military personnel, and a portable air traffic control station to another Syrian airbase in Latakia. That coastal province, the Assad family’s ancestral home, has already seen Russian troops caught on video operating BTR-82 infantry fighting vehicles against anti-Assad rebels, atop rumors that Moscow may be deploying an “expeditionary force,” including Russian air pilots who would fly combat missions.

They may already be doing so. A social media account affiliated with the al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra posted images of what appeared to be Russian Air Force jets and drones flying in the skies of Syria’s northwest Idlib province. They were, specifically, the Mig-29 Fulcrum, the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker, the Su-34 Fullback and the Pchela-1T drone. These images were analyzed as credible by the specialist website The Aviationist, which also noted that “during the past days, Flightradar24.com has exposed several flights of a Russian Air Force… Il-76 airlifter (caught by means of its Mode-S transponder) flying to and from Damascus using radio call sign ‘Manny 6,’ most probably supporting the deployment of a Russian expeditionary force.”

“The Russians are clearly setting themselves on the ground in regime areas. … This, ironically, reinforces the Obama administration’s position.”

ISIS isn't in Idlib; the terror army that calls itself the Islamic State was driven out of the province completely. As one U.S. intelligence official put it to The Daily Beast, "The question is, what are Russia's underlying motivations? Are they really there to fight [ISIS], or just to prop up Assad?"

The concern is that Russia could use military strikes against ISIS as a kind of cover or feint for attacking rebel forces as well, including non-Islamist groups. The U.S. sees these forces as a potential bulwark against ISIS. But they also have as one of their primary goals overthrowing Assad—an effort that Washington has been unwilling to support.

The White House has fallen back on its customary posture of wait-and-see as proof mounts that the Russians are coming. Spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters this week: ”We are aware of reports that Russia may have deployed military personnel and aircraft to Syria, and we are monitoring those reports quite closely. Any military support to the Assad regime for any purpose, whether it's in the form of military personnel, aircraft supplies, weapons, or funding, is both destabilizing and counterproductive.” Another unnamed U.S. official told Britain’s Daily Telegraph, ”Russia has asked for clearances for military flights to Syria, we don't know what their goals are.”

Actually, their goals aren't terribly hard to discern, nor do they necessarily contradict implicit White House policy, whatever Josh Earnest says.

[B]Photographs circulated on social media showing what appeared to be Russian soldiers in Zabadani, a city 45 kilometers north of Damascus, which has changed hands several times during the civil war. For months rebels have been fending off a scorched-earth assault by the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Iranian forces, which the U.N. assesses to have led to “unprecedented levels of destruction.” So the injection of Russian legionnaires into a multinational cocktail of combatants duking it out in Zabadani would make perfect sense. The city is considered the sine qua non of Iran’s “strategic corridor” in Syria, which runs from the capital to Lebanon and up along the Mediterranean coastline. The formidable Islamist rebel brigade Ahrar al-Sham knows who’s in charge here—it has even negotiated an ultimately unsuccessful
ceasefire directly with the Islamic Republic rather than with Assad.

“The Russians are clearly setting themselves on the ground in regime areas, planting the flag in ‘Alawistan,’ as it were,” says Tony Badran, a Syria expert at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, referring to the Alawites, the schismatic Shia sect to which the Assad clan and the more powerful Syrian regime elites belong. “This, ironically, reinforces the Obama administration’s position, which has drawn a clear line around the regime enclave. The opposition is not to enter Damascus and the coastal cities. So the Russian deployment actually fits well with the administration’s approach.”

Right on cue, then, came Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement Friday that Syria would soon hold new parliamentary elections and inaugurate a power-sharing government with what he deemed a “healthy” opposition. He did not specify what he considered the diseased opposition, although this would almost certainly include Free Syrian Army fighters the CIA and Pentagon has been recruiting as U.S. proxies.

While Putin dismissed the existence of any Russian combat forces in Syria as “premature,” he did allow that he was “looking at various options” for militarily involving himself in the war. Coming from someone who only admits to Russian invasions after the fact, such a signposting of motive should not be ignored.

Moscow’s close coordination with Tehran, both in Damascus and internationally, is also no coincidence. Iran is now busy shopping a new international “peace plan” for Syria, one that goes beyond the parameters of the previously inked Geneva II protocol.

Intriguingly, just weeks after Iran agreed to a deal to control its nuclear program in exchange for international sanctions relief, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of its own expeditionary force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force, flew to Moscow for talks with Russian officials, violating the international travel ban related to his terrorist activity. No doubt solidifying Russian backing for whatever he has planned for Syria was high up on Soleimani’s agenda.

It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time since the Syrian war broke out that there’s been chatter about Russian troops in Damascus.

In May 2013, sources close to the Kremlin suggested that Putin had dispatched the Zaslon special forces detachment to the Syrian capital. Formed in 1998, and conceived as a clandestine unit combining the purviews of America’s Delta Force and Secret Service, Zaslon consists of a mere 280 highly-trained operatives. It answers to Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, and is tasked with protecting high-value Russian officials in uncertain conditions and sometimes even conducting assassinations. It was rumored to have killed Iraqi insurgents in 2006 after the latter had captured and executed Russian diplomats.

As Mark Galeotti, a New York University-based specialist on Russia’s military and security forces, observed two years ago: “According to one Russian report, two Zaslon elements were also deployed to Baghdad in the dying days of the [Saddam] Hussein regime. Their mission was to seize or destroy documents which Moscow would have found embarrassing had they ended up in U.S. hands. Given the scale and depth of Russian support for Assad, it could similarly be that they are also in Syria to cover Moscow’s tracks or else ensure that sensitive military technology — including new surface-to-air systems — does not end up in foreign hands.”

Under the present circumstances, it is now likely that any Russian soldiers in Damascus are there to fortify and ring-fence another spent Baathist regime, if not to join in a war that is fought increasingly by “foreign hands.”

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 06:25 PM
The standard US response since Crimea--always talk, talk and more talking--never any formal action.

REMEMBER Obama stated in 2014 "we will judge Putin by his actions not his words"--YET all they do is listen to the words.

Expressions of concern and more discussion... Kerry tells Lavrov of U.S. concern over Russian moves in Syria http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0R50QV20150905 …

Putin's response was --we are not thinking yet about troops in Syria BUT as in the Ukraine--he is lying again.

NOW instead of truck drivers and coal miners we have camel drivers and fishermen.

OUTLAW 09
09-05-2015, 06:28 PM
Maybe a good day to remind about the earlier reports of downed new Russian drones in Syria. https://twitter.com/vpkivimaki/status/623893730278416384 …

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 07:53 AM
Well as least it is a US response--not much of one but still something.....
BUT why did take the social media instead of the US intel community????

Kerry Warns #Russia on 'Enhanced Military Buildup' in #Syria
http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.674668 … That`s a first
pic.twitter.com/ud1BB78GOP

This confirms the Russian marine debarcation point and timeline----
Rus 810th Marine section leaves Sevastopol coincides w shipping to Syria http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-september-russia-810th-marine-section-leaves-sevastopol … pic.twitter.com/ZGVXd0ONiH via @finriswolf

Syria #Raqqah : The 'Political Security Branch' block has been erased http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.938550&lon=39.012202&z=19&m=b … pic.twitter.com/Nt7mxFSymP

#Syria #Assad used chlorine BBs in Aleppo Now ISIL's terror campaign includes mustard gas in Marea and Erbin
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/09/missing-point-syrian-refugees-150903110038405.html …

There is no coincidence that both Assad and the IS are using chemical weapons---they have both fed and support each others military goals and the West meaning the US has seemingly not been aware of that simple fact.

Syria #Raqqah : Old Baath party building has unique method of reaching the top floor http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.944683&lon=39.011453&z=19&m=b … pic.twitter.com/3aWgDzZ3jq

Syria : #ISIS capital #Raqqah 1 large comms tower standing the 2nd mast has collapsed http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.945647&lon=39.013197&z=18&m=b … pic.twitter.com/GBM0Wj9UJz

Julian Röpcke @JulianRoepcke
Important:
What did ISIS use in its SVBIED here??
A US fuel tank or a bomb??
Which type?? pic.twitter.com/yGCIFdKqEP

Julian Röpcke @JulianRoepcke
@JulianRoepcke Seems to be Soviet-made bomb. Thanks!!

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 08:18 AM
Report claims Assad gave IS chemical weapons to deliver chemical attacks by proxy

http://go.shr.lc/1POTuEN pic.twitter.com/xkId1XR5vw

Assad delivers CW shipment to ISIS
Posted by: Hamood Almossa in Raqqa news 25/08/2015 0 4,239 Views

Exclusive Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently


Assad regime has escalated his attacks against civilians demanding the ”fall of the regime”, using all means to suppress the protests, he went so far beyond the red line Obama drew, and actually used Chemical Weapons in the areas he lost control of.

When Assad used Chemical Weapons in the famous Ghouta attack back in 2013, the ”international community” has formed a fact finding committee, and forced the regime to hand over its arsenal of Chemical Weapons. However the regime decided not to hand everything, and hid some of these weapons with its ally Hizbullah, and kept others to himself inside Syria according to sources.

According to information leaked to our campaign (Raqqa is being slaughtered silently), certain amounts of Mustard gas, were transferred to Al Raqqa via regime containers, which were intended to carry “Chlorine for water purification”.Part of it was then moved to East of Syria and Iraq (ISIS held territories).

German reports published earlier this year, confirmed that ISIS (Islamic State) had used poisonous gases in Iraq. Also, there has been news that the ISIS used chemical weapons against the Kurds in the countryside of Ain Arab northern Syria.
The latest reports came from Aleppo, and they talk about the use of mustard gas and other toxic gases in the east part of Aleppo’s countryside during the past few days.

Moving the Chemical weapons to ISIS has a huge benefit for the regime, this way he can clear his name from the Ghouta and other attacks by claiming the he is not the only one who has these kind of weapons in Syria. Also, he can convince the international community that they should keep him and fight the terrorist organizations instead, which will give him back his legitimacy.

By transferring his CW to ISIS, he can get it back whenever he needs it, as it’s in ”safe hands”, he also get his enemy bombed with CW, by the hands of ISIS, without having to do it himself.

The biggest gain to this transfer remain that he can threaten Turkey, Jordan and Israel, with these weapons, without having them linked to him, since he is busy ”fighting” the terrorist groups.

Red Crescent in Raqqa which was responsible for bringing the chlorine (for water treatment) in the city before, but ISIS has stopped the organization’s work months ago, without giving any reason. But it’s clear now. We can see the extent of indirect cooperation between ISIS and the regime, and how they help each others against their enemies.

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 08:23 AM
Important photo evidence of Russian Marine unit leaving Crimea for Syria---
Russia sends marines from Crimea to fight in Syria. pic.twitter.com/k9hlyn8hdf

Raqqah Massive #ISIS truck convoy yesterday. Batch 1 pic.twitter.com/Hy8DB24oMz

#Raqqah Massive #ISIS truck convoy yesterday. Batch 2 pic.twitter.com/UaUaniaQSK

Anders stlund @andersostlund
When #Russia set Middle East really ablaze oil prices will sky-rocket. Alternative energy plans needed. pic.twitter.com/w469NvBvfa

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 11:33 AM
Feels odd that If there hadn't been the selfie epidemic, we would have never had proof RU's military is involved in Ukraine and Syria.

In case you are lead to believe RU sent its marines to Syria only recently. These pics from Feb/March 2015. pic.twitter.com/PJH2s9otn1
More selfies-----

The point is, RU forces are in Syria to bolster Assad's crumbling regime, and not to fight Daesh like Putin says.

Footage
#FSA forces target regime-held Tell al-Khirbah with DIY mortars.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQSZkhmaUII …
pic.twitter.com/RQuTjQhd5d

Not verified---
103 Russian soldiers KIA in Syria https://twitter.com/sobinewsrussia/status/640466732444971008 …

Sergey, where is this?"
RU marine: "The base of the Russian Military Navy in Syria" (April 22) pic.twitter.com/Br60pmR1EV

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 12:07 PM
Very interesting from @ajaltamimi on the assassination of #Druze Sheikh Abu Fahad al-Bal’ous in Sweida, #Syria:
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-assassination-of-sheikh-abu-fahad-al-balous-context-and-analysis/ …

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 12:51 PM
Humor----

Putin rushed to hospital with rib pain from excessive laughter after Kerry warns RUS against further aid to Assad http://fxn.ws/1JJANOL

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 03:07 PM
BreakingNews
Syrian rebels destroyed another #ISIS SVBIED before it could reach #Marea on Sunday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwGKeUAWy20 …

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 03:20 PM
The Israeli's are usually quite in touch within the ME--NOW they are openly stating the US has no intentions in toppling Assad--IS that not the same foreign policy as Putin???

So does this in fact verify all rumors in the Ukraine and the EU that really Obama has thrown the Ukraine under the bus just to get a win for the Obama legacy??????

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.674779?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Putin's Military Build-up in Syria Could Be a Game-changer for Israel

Now that the U.S. isn't aiming to topple him, and Russia and Iran are increasing their support, Assad has better chances of stabilizing his defense.


Amos Harel

Sept 06, 2015 5:15 PM


Several media reports over the last week have indicated a significant increase in the military aid that Russia is offering Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, including even the use of air crews and Russian fighter jets – all as part of efforts by Russia to sustain that regime. Although the latest efforts are drawing some feeble criticism from the United States, it seems more like lip service...

continued.......


Appears that in fact the current Obama strategy for countering IS is to kill more Syrians in the name of placating Putin and Assad.

NOTE--behind a pay wall--have access but did not want to post entire article due to the pay wall.

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 03:41 PM
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
New VDC report on Marea CW attacks includes new images of the munitions, and details of injuries http://www.vdc-sy.info/pdf/reports/1441397475-English.pdf …

It describes blisters that appeared a few hours after victims arrived at hospital, which fits with mustard

BreakingFootage
#Assad terror regime barrel bomb attack on #Arihah in #Idlib province
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED3OEnZPQO4 …
pic.twitter.com/oL0Mn1appq

The front in the #Ghab plain is more than 30 km away.
This strike had ZERO military value.
Just #terrorism. #warcrimes

Russia is building a military base in #Syria to speed up rearmament of Assad regime army, U.S. officials say.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11846382/Russia-is-building-military-base-in-Syria.html?utm_source=cloze&utm_campaign=cloze&utm_medium=twitter …

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 03:42 PM
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
New VDC report on Marea CW attacks includes new images of the munitions, and details of injuries 1/2 http://www.vdc-sy.info/pdf/reports/1441397475-English.pdf …

BreakingFootage
#Assad terror regime barrel bomb attack on #Arihah in #Idlib province
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED3OEnZPQO4 …
pic.twitter.com/oL0Mn1appq

The front in the #Ghab plain is more than 30 km away.
This strike had ZERO military value.
Just #terrorism. #warcrimes

Russia is building a military base in #Syria to speed up rearmament of Assad regime army, U.S. officials say.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11846382/Russia-is-building-military-base-in-Syria.html?utm_source=cloze&utm_campaign=cloze&utm_medium=twitter …

USA has had the worst foreign policy presidents, back to back, in a century, since WIlson. Whoever comes in Jan 2017 faces huge cleanup.

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 04:51 PM
Carly Fiorina: US cannot take any refugees from Syria because they may be terrorists, the Europeans shld take them https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1PZE67VsgU … !

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 06:11 PM
Syria #Analysis #Map
Syrian rebels pushed back #ISIS from #Marea to the silos in in N-E.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-hLfAW3UMM … pic.twitter.com/L2ezGmg9Zy

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 06:26 PM
Greek government refused US request to prevent passage of Russian IL-76 transports to #Syria? http://military-informant.com/news/ssha-pyitaetsya-perekryit-dostup-rossiykim-voenno-transportnyim-samoletam-k-sirii.html … pic.twitter.com/knJbGvgp0Q

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 06:38 PM
If Russia sent (hypothetical) 1,500 marines to Tartus, Syria - That still leaves 50,000-60,000 Russian troops near Ukraine's eastern border.

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 06:40 PM
Since Russia's role in Syria is in the news, might interest >> Russian Intelligence and the War In Syria (OCT 2014)

http://goo.gl/7gDMCU

A really good article in order to understand Russian intelligence activities in Syria------------

OUTLAW 09
09-06-2015, 07:46 PM
Syrian military official: There’s been a ‘big shift’ in Russian military support for Assad http://uk.businessinsider.com/syrian-military-official-theres-been-a-big-shift-in-russian-military-support-for-assad-2015-9 … via @BI_Europe

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 09:08 AM
Russian weaponization of information concerning the spreading of IS into Europe---this simply appeared via Russian trolls yesterday along with a purported photo in Greece of a well known IS jihadi—later turned out to be a Syria rebel leader who was simply tired of war.

Now a number of other Russian trolls have picked up on the narrative—IF I was IS WHY would I be waring European police and intelligence by stating a given number.

BTW the original statement about jihadi’s and their numbers actually came from IS troll sources.

NOTICE how the IS and Russia share/use the same weaponized information?

Russian news report that more than 4000 ISIS militants have entered the EU pretending to be refugees from Syria http://izvestia.ru/news/591065

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 11:01 AM
Humor---

Putin----
I have urged Assad to continue the barrel bombing until the refugees stop fleeing.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 11:49 AM
Russian MP's letter to Defense Minister Shoigu on reports of RUS troops presence in Syria https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=981217478586359&set=a.821288534579255.1073741826.100000943480007&type=1 … pic.twitter.com/fTlySFS4Km

Christian militia in #Syria with the flag of the #Templars pic.twitter.com/VfD6A2lthd

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 11:51 AM
http://uatoday.tv/news/reuters-russi...ti-488980.html …

Russian weaponization of information at work.

In the face of literally tens of Russian military social media entries, photos and videos Russian troops have been fighting in Syria since at least April 2015 or sooner ie Feb/Mar 2015 --Russia releases this press release.

Russia Says Its Arms Deliveries to Syria Aimed at Fighting Terrorism: RIA Novosti

By REUTERS

SEPT. 7, 2015, 5:18 A.M. E.D.T.


MOSCOW — Russia has never concealed the fact that it has been supplying military equipment to Syria aimed at fighting terrorism, RIA Novosti news agency cited a foreign ministry spokeswoman as saying on Monday.

The agency, citing the ministry's spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, also reported that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in a phone conversation it is "premature" to speak about Russia's participation in military operations in Syria.

NOTICE Russia does not define the word terrorism in the press release--does it mean just IS, does it mean any anti Assad grouping, does it mean any and all other Islamists fighting in Syria against Assad, or does it mean Kurds?

Does this support with weapons and advisors extend to Hezbollah and Iranian mercenaries fighting along side Assad???

Does it mean also fighting against the Jordanian, Turkish and US trained anti Assad fighters inside Syria???

Does this also mean Russian fighter pilots and Russian drones will be flying over all of Syria as well???

Does it mean Russia acknowledges the massive refugee flows are directly contributed to by Russian weapons, bombs, fighters and Russian advisors in the GRU intel centers which have been directing Assad's military operations along with IRGC????

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 12:25 PM
US asks Greece to close airspace to Russian military flights headed to #Syria amid buildup jitters

http://reut.rs/1EMJKdg

Greece initially denied the US request as the Russians had declared the military flight "aid" flights--the exact same drill used in the Ukraine when they send in "humanitarian aid convoys" which are nothing more than "masked" munitions, fuel and military supplies for her army and her supported mercenaries.

Russian non linear warfare deep at work now in Syria and using massive "weaponization of information to mask her operations and intentions.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 12:38 PM
In German------

Neuer Schock-Bericht der UN zu Syrien
Warum Assad kein Partner gegen ISIS ist
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/syrien-krise/assad-kein-partner-gegen-isis-42463042.bild.html …

UN-Bericht beschreibt Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit durch das syrische Regime ++ Russlands Putin schickt bereits Truppen zu dessen Unterstützung

This article is dedicated to the brave men of the Free Syrian Army, defending civilians in #Syria against #ISIS' and #Assad's terrorism.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 12:39 PM
ISIS dude on Twitter asks car company GMC Arabia why their SUVs back wheels can't handle 1.5 tonnes of car explosives pic.twitter.com/7lJbPfeSHL

Intriguingly, if Putin did not reconquer Crimea from Kyiv junta, Crimean draftees would have no chance to die in Syria for Assad

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 12:54 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-horrific-results-of-obamas-strategy-in-syria/2015/09/03/c16c117a-526c-11e5-933e-7d06c647a395_story.html

The horrific results of Obama’s failure in Syria

By Michael Gerson

September 3 2015


One little boy in a red T-shirt, lying face down, drowned, on a Turkish beach, is a tragedy. More than 200,000 dead in Syria, 4 million fleeing refugees and 7.6 million displaced from their homes are statistics. But they represent a collective failure of massive proportions.

For four years, the Obama administration has engaged in what Frederic Hof, former special adviser for transition in Syria, calls a “pantomime of outrage.” Four years of strongly worded protests, and urgent meetings and calls for negotiation — the whole drama a sickening substitute for useful action. People talking and talking to drown out the voice of their own conscience. And blaming. In 2013, President Obama lectured the U.N. Security Council for having “demonstrated no inclination to act at all.” Psychological projection on a global stage.

Always there is Obama’s weary realism. “It’s not the job of the president of the United States to solve every problem in the Middle East.” We must be “modest in our belief that we can remedy every evil.”

But we are not dealing here with every problem or every evil; rather a discrete and unique set of circumstances: The largest humanitarian failure of the Obama era is also its largest strategic failure.

At some point, being “modest” becomes the same thing as being inured to atrocities. President Bashar al-Assad’s helicopters continue to drop “barrel bombs” filled with shrapnel and chlorine. In recent attacks on the town of Marea, Islamic State forces have used skin-blistering mustard gas and deployed, over a few days, perhaps 50 suicide bombers. We have seen starvation sieges, and kidnappings, and beheadings, and more than 10,000 dead children.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has changed her country’s asylum rules to welcome every Syrian refugee who arrives. Syrians have taken to calling her “Mama Merkel, Mother of the Outcasts.” I wonder what they call the U.S. president.

At many points during the past four years, even relatively small actions might have reduced the pace of civilian casualties in Syria. How hard would it have been to destroy the helicopters dropping barrel bombs on neighborhoods? A number of options well short of major intervention might have reduced the regime’s destructive power and/or strengthened the capabilities of more responsible forces. All were untaken.

This was not some humanitarian problem distant from the center of U.S. interests. It was a crisis at the heart of the Middle East that produced a vacuum of sovereignty that has attracted and empowered some of the worst people in the world. Inaction was a conscious, determined choice on the part of the Obama White House. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and CIA Director David Petraeus advocated arming favorable proxies. Sunni friends and allies in the region asked, then begged, for U.S. leadership. All were overruled or ignored.

In the process, Syria has become the graveyard of U.S. credibility. The chemical weapons “red line.” “The tide of war is receding.” “Don’t do stupid [stuff].” These are global punch lines. “The analogy we use around here sometimes,” said Obama of the Islamic State, “and I think is accurate, is if a JV team puts on Lakers uniforms, that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant.” Now the goal to “degrade and destroy” the Islamic State looks unachievable with the current strategy and resources. “The time has come for President Assad to step aside,” said Obama in 2011. Yet Assad will likely outlast Obama in power.

What explains Obama’s high tolerance for humiliation and mass atrocities in Syria? The Syrian regime is Iran’s proxy, propped up by billions of dollars each year. And Obama wanted nothing to interfere with the prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran. He was, as Hof has said, “reluctant to offend the Iranians at this critical juncture.” So the effective concession of Syria as an Iranian zone of influence is just one more cost of the president’s legacy nuclear agreement.

Never mind that Iran will now have tens of billions of unfrozen assets to strengthen Assad’s struggling military. And never mind that Assad’s atrocities are one of the main recruiting tools for the Islamic State and other Sunni radicals. All of which is likely to extend a war that no one can win, which has incubated regional and global threats — and thrown a small body in a red T-shirt against a distant shore.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 01:21 PM
US asks Greece to close airspace to Russian military flights headed to #Syria amid buildup jitters

http://reut.rs/1EMJKdg

Greece initially denied the US request as the Russians had declared the military flight "aid" flights--the exact same drill used in the Ukraine when they send in "humanitarian aid convoys" which are nothing more than "masked" munitions, fuel and military supplies for her army and her supported mercenaries.

Russian non linear warfare deep at work now in Syria and using massive "weaponization of information to mask her operations and intentions.


Russian military experts in Syria are expanding air bases and runways http://read.bi/1KAaAYt pic.twitter.com/wdcff6qfL9

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Russia never concealed deliveries of military equipment to official Syrian authorities in the fight against terrorism http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150907/1026683563.html#ixzz3l3dl4DhD …

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 02:40 PM
http://www.bne.eu/content/story/stolypin-can-putin-really-be-syrious

STOLYPIN: Can Putin really be Syrious?

Mark Galeotti of New York University

September 7, 2015


While Russian forces remain bogged down in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, prop up unrecognized regimes in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Trasnistria, and wander (and occasionally shell) the uplands of the North Caucasus, can the Kremlin really be committing itself to a substantive military deployment to Syria? Common sense would seem to say no, but the facts on the ground are beginning to suggest the answer is a – conditional – yes. Is there a rationale to such a move, or is this simply a piece of knee-jerk international posturing? And what might it portend?

Boots on the sand

Russia has long had a limited commitment in Syria – one of its last real allies, after all, alongside such equally threadbare assets as Nicaragua, Venezuela and some grudging Central Asian “’stans.” It has a very small naval installation at Tartus, not the “naval base” some allege but a limited logistical point amounting to a pier and some warehouses. More generally, though, it is clear that Russian advisers and technical personnel have been present, especially in providing intelligence support, through flying drones – probably from Latakia air base – and manning radio-electronic interception stations. Beyond that, as Assad continues to buy Russian kit, technicians have come to train Syrians to use it, and military advisers have helped plan operations.

So far, so (relatively) limited. However, there are not clear and compelling indicators that Russia is upping the stakes. At the very time that Moscow is showing growing real concern about the scope for Islamic State (IS) to penetrate and galvanize the insurgency in the North Caucasus, it is also talking up its own role fighting jihad in the Middle East. Putin recently, while noting that Russia is “already giving Syria quite serious help with equipment and training soldiers, with our weapons” dismissed as “premature” any talk of a deeper military presence. Rather, he talked up the creation of “some kind of an international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism”.

Meanwhile, a variety of news outlets and other sources have shown Russian Naval Infantry in squad and platoon strength in Damascus, Homs and Latakia, and recordings suggest Russians crewing brand-new BTR-82A combat vehicles, a scarce sight so far even in the Motherland’s forces. Other, less open sources have whispered of teams of elite commandos in Damascus, possibly army Spetsnaz, maybe the shadowy Zaslon unit of the Foreign Intelligence Service.

Latakia, with its port and air base, appears to be one of the foci of Russia’s increasingly muscular presence, but talk of “thousands” of troops being deployed appears premature. First of all, assuming Moscow wants to retain a surge capacity in the Donbas, its expeditionary forces – the paratroopers, Naval Infantry marines and Spetsnaz – are operating at close to capacity.

The Black Sea Fleet’s Ropucha-class landing ship Tsezar Kunikov appears to have set sail for Syria, with a complement of at least 300 marines from the 810th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade (based in Crimea). Recently the Alligator-class Nikolai Filchenkov likewise travelled to Latakia, albeit with a load of trucks, materiel and combat vehicles rather than personnel, and the Ropucha-class Azov with materiel. Although it would be possible to airlift in men and vehicles, this is expensive and would tie up a large proportion of Russia’s air fleet. Instead, then, we are talking about a shift from perhaps a few hundred technical personnel and advisers – including officers from GRU military intelligence and the FSB security service – to fewer than a thousand, but including well-trained, frontline combat troops.

A Quixotic Deployment?

Why go in now, arguably at the very time the Syrian regime’s prospects appear gloomiest? Perhaps that is the point, but when it comes down to it, what is Assad to Putin? There is no evidence of a particular personal tie, and while it would embarrass Moscow if an ally fell, it is hard to regard this as more than a 24-hour wonder. There are no strategic assets to be lost – Tartus is hardly worth mentioning – and nor is Damascus’s fate central to the Kremlin’s narrative of Russia’s national interests. Indeed, given that Syria is likely to be a roiling mess for years to come, would common sense not suggest extrication more than escalation?

The answer is, of course, yes.

If Moscow wants to look like a loyal patron, at least it could offer the Assads a nice McDacha mansion in the upscale Barvikha gated community and a chance to get out before the collapse. If Moscow wants to keep a friendly regime in place, it could even try to broker some suitable “everyone-against-IS” coalition to replace Assad. Of course, to do that it needs leverage – and here the logic, such as it is, of any escalation emerges.

The first and most basic point to remember is this: the Middle East doesn’t matter to Moscow. Nor, for that matter, does Africa or Latin America. China just about does. But essentially, all of the Kremlin’s policies are directed towards the West. Even policy towards China is really meant to fill in the gaps in credits and exports left and hopefully make the West jealous enough to reopen relations. It may sound arrogant and be uncomfortable come from a Westerner, but yes: it really is ‘All About Us’.

Putin is coming to the UN General Assembly in September, itself a big deal given that his last attendance was in 2005. With the prospects of an acceptable deal over the conflict in Donbas receding, with the Russian economy expected to continue to decline, he’s looking for his own “reset” and sees it in some civilizational anti-jihadist coalition.

For some time, Moscow has hoped that cooperation against IS and terrorism in general could be the leverage point to get the West to relax its tough line over Ukraine. The appointment in March of former FSB deputy director Oleg Syromolotov to a new deputy foreign minister for counter-terrorism cooperation position was an early indication, one which has borne little fruit.

So the Russians seem to be upping the ante, making Syria a battleground not so much for the preservation of an ally – though they will hardly mind if they also manage to save Assad – but instead the formation of an anti-jihadist coalition. That way Moscow does its best to wipe out IS militants in the Middle East, before they manage also to infiltrate the North Caucasus, and also makes its case to be the West’s ally against a common enemy.

It is unlikely to work. The West will gladly take what intelligence cooperation Russia offers – even while treating the fruits with a certain skepticism – and will hardly mourn any IS fighters killed by Russian bombs or Russian guns. Just as the US and Iran have an arm’s length understanding in Iraq against IS without becoming friends, so too a Russian role in Syria is not going to create any deep or lasting amity.

Nonetheless, that this is the Kremlin’s game plan says two things. First, that it is desperate to break out of its current impasse, for all its bullish claims. Second, that it does not understand the West, that it thinks everything is for sale, and that if only it can find the right offer, the sovereignty of Ukraine, the integrity of the global international order and justice for the dead of MH17 are all on the table.



Mark Galeotti is Professor of Global Affairs at the SPS Center for Global Affairs, New York University and Director of its Initiative for the Study of Emerging Threats. He writes the blog In Moscow’s Shadows (http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/) and tweets as @MarkGaleotti.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 03:10 PM
US asks Greece to close airspace to Russian military flights headed to #Syria amid buildup jitters

http://reut.rs/1EMJKdg

Greece initially denied the US request as the Russians had declared the military flight "aid" flights--the exact same drill used in the Ukraine when they send in "humanitarian aid convoys" which are nothing more than "masked" munitions, fuel and military supplies for her army and her supported mercenaries.

Russian non linear warfare deep at work now in Syria and using massive "weaponization of information to mask her operations and intentions.


All lip service in comments by Kerry and DoS---

RA-86496 Russian Air Force Ilyushin IL62M allegedly today. Looks Greece is not closing the airspace. Or Bulgaria. https://twitter.com/ProtestSPb/status/640892218304294912 …

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 03:15 PM
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/565862-pro-hezbollah-daily-russia-will-close-syrias-skies-to-israel

Published: 7/09/2015 01:54 PM

Pro-Hezbollah daily: Russia will close Syria’s skies to Israel


Al-Akhbar boasted that Tel Aviv will face "the predicament of a resistance region in southern Syria that has Russian cover.”

BEIRUT – A pro-Hezbollah daily has boasted that Russia’s widely expected military intervention in Syria will prevent Israel from conducting further airstrikes in the country.

A report in Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar said Monday that Russia’s “participation in fighting in Syria will have an escalatory effect,” especially on the strategic level, where it will be “considered a show of strength to Israel and Turkey.”

“Israel, having understood the message even before receiving it formally, has realized that Syrian skies will be closed to Israeli planes,” the newspaper claimed.

A flurry of reports have emerged in recent weeks that Russia has been dispatching large numbers of military advisors to Syria and is planning to set up an airbase in the Latakia province to conduct airstrikes on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

An unnamed US official told Reuters over the weekend that Washington has detected “worrisome preparatory steps” by the Russians that could signal the country “is readying deployment of heavy military assets” in Syria.

Al-Akhbar—which firmly supports Hezbollah—further said that Tel Aviv “will face the predicament of a resistance region in southern Syria that has Russian cover.”

Israel has conducted a number of airstrikes in the Golan in recent months, most recently on August 21 following a rocket attack on Israel. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has repeatedly vowed that it has been developing a “resistance front” in the border region to confront Israel.

Israel’s Haaretz newspaper also tackled the effect of Moscow’s expected intervention on Tel Aviv’s policymaking regarding Syria, where the Jewish State has conducted a number of reported strikes against shipments of advances weapons headed for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“The entry of Russia into the Syrian arena changes the rules of this game,” Haaretz’s defense and military analyst Amos Harel wrote in an article published Sunday.

The leading Israeli military journalist added that “if Russia is dispatching its jet fighters and establishing a new military base in Syria, Israel will have to deal with new and different kinds of constraints, especially if the aircraft are equipped with Russian air-to-air missiles.”

“Increased Russian military presence in the region may demand that Israel’s military intelligence undertake more forceful efforts to deal with this development.”

Last week, Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Russia would begin dispatching thousands of military personnel to Syria, adding that that Moscow’s aerial operations on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime would “represent a challenge to the Israeli Air Force's freedom of operation in the skies above the Middle East.”

Israel’s government has yet to make any official comment regarding the growing reports of Russia’s impending military intervention in Syria.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 03:48 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obamas-syria-achievement/2015/09/06/961b416a-50de-11e5-8c19-0b6825aa4a3a_story.html

Obama’s Syria achievement

By Fred Hiatt Editorial page editor

September 6 at 7:06 PM


This may be the most surprising of President Obama’s foreign-policy legacies: not just that he presided over a humanitarian and cultural disaster of epochal proportions, but that he soothed the American people into feeling no responsibility for the tragedy.

Starvation in Biafra a generation ago sparked a movement. Synagogues and churches a decade ago mobilized to relieve misery in Darfur. When the Taliban in 2001 destroyed ancient statues of Buddha at Bamiyan, the world was appalled at the lost heritage.

Today the Islamic State is blowing up precious cultural monuments in Palmyra, and half of all Syrians have been displaced — as if, on a proportional basis, 160 million Americans had been made homeless. More than a quarter-million have been killed. Yet the “Save Darfur” signs have not given way to “Save Syria.”

One reason is that Obama — who ran for president on the promise of restoring the United States’ moral stature — has constantly reassured Americans that doing nothing is the smart and moral policy. He has argued, at times, that there was nothing the United States could do, belittling the Syrian opposition as “former doctors, farmers, pharmacists and so forth.”

He has argued that we would only make things worse — “I am more mindful probably than most,” he told the New Republic in 2013, “of not only our incredible strengths and capabilities, but also our limitations.”

He has implied that because we can’t solve every problem, maybe we shouldn’t solve any. “How do I weigh tens of thousands who’ve been killed in Syria versus the tens of thousands who are currently being killed in the Congo?” he asked (though at the time thousands were not being killed in Congo).

On those rare occasions when political pressure or the horrors of Syrian suffering threatened to overwhelm any excuse for inaction, he promised action, in statements or White House leaks: training for the opposition, a safe zone on the Turkish border. Once public attention moved on, the plans were abandoned or scaled back to meaningless proportions (training 50 soldiers per year, no action on the Turkish border).

Perversely, the worse Syria became, the more justified the president seemed for staying aloof; steps that might have helped in 2012 seemed ineffectual by 2013, and actions that could have saved lives in 2013 would not have been up to the challenge presented by 2014. The fact that the woman who wrote the book on genocide, Samantha Power, and the woman who campaigned to bomb Sudan to save the people of Darfur, Susan Rice, could apparently in good conscience stay on as U.N. ambassador and national security adviser, respectively, lent further moral credibility to U.S. abdication.

Most critically, inaction was sold not as a necessary evil but as a notable achievement: The United States at last was leading with the head, not the heart, and with modesty, not arrogance. “Realists” pointed out that the United States gets into trouble when it lets ideals or emotions rule — when it sends soldiers to feed the hungry in Somalia, for example, only to lose them, as told in “ Black Hawk Down,” and turn tail.

The realists were right that the United States has to consider interests as well as values, must pace itself and can’t save everyone. But a values-free argument ought at least to be able to show that the ends have justified the means, whereas the strategic results of Obama’s disengagement have been nearly as disastrous as the human consequences.

When Obama pulled all U.S. troops out of Iraq, critics worried there would be instability; none envisioned the emergence of a full-blown terrorist state. When he announced in August 2011 that “the time has come for President Assad to step aside,” critics worried the words might prove empty — but few imagined the extent of the catastrophe: not just the savagery of chemical weapons and “barrel bombs,” but also the Islamic State’s recruitment of thousands of foreign fighters, its spread from Libya to Afghanistan, the danger to the U.S. homeland that has alarmed U.S. intelligence officials, the refugees destabilizing Europe.

Even had Obama’s policy succeeded in purely realist terms, though, something would have been lost in the anesthetization of U.S. opinion. Yes, the nation’s outrage over the decades has been uneven, at times hypocritical, at times self-serving.

But there also has been something to be admired in America’s determination to help — to ask, even if we cannot save everyone in Congo, can we not save some people in Syria? Obama’s successful turning of that question on its head is nothing to be proud of.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 04:09 PM
If an American journalist can see this developing just why cannot Kerry, the entire 700 person NSC, and Obama see this coming at them???

The Russian Deployment To Syria Is About To Make Things Much Worse

15:06 (GMT)


The Interpreter's editor-in-chief Michael Weiss has been following the Russian military deployment to Syria, and has written two articles assessing the evidence for The Daily Beast. On September 1, the size of Russia's growing military presence in Syria was small but alarming:

On August 22, the Bosphorus Naval News website showed the Alligator-class Russian ship Nikolai Filchenkov, part of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, two days earlier passing through Istanbul’s famed waterway en route to an unknown location in the Mediterranean (hint, hint).

But what was remarkable about the Filchenkov was that military equipment was visible on deck—namely, Kamaz trucks and, judging by the tarpaulin outlines, at least four BTR infantry fighting vehicles. (This doesn’t include any matériel that might have been stored in the ship’s below-deck cargo hold.)

On August 24, the Oryx Blog, which tracks military dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, discovered that at least one BTR-82A had turned up in the coastal province of Latakia, where Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s family hails from and which has lately been contested, impressively, by Jaysh al-Fatah, or the Army of Conquest, a collection of Islamist rebels groups including Jabhat al Nusra, the official al Qaeda franchise in Syria.

So important to Assad is fortifying Latakia against rebel assault that his regime has mounted a significant counteroffensive made up of the Syrian Arab Army, the praetorian Republican Guard, and the National Defense Force, a consortium of sectarian militias constructed, trained, and financed by Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force.

By September 5, however, evidence suggested that Russian troops were positioned at their naval base in Tartus and in their new deployment in Latakia, but also in Damascus. Russian airforce was also reportedly patrolling the skies of Syria's northern Idlib province:

The opposition-linked website All4Syria seems to corroborate such eyewitness accounts. Many residents of Damascus, it claimed, have “observed in the first three days of September a noticeable deployment of Iranian and Russian elements in the neighborhoods of Baramkeh, al-Bahsa, and Tanzim Kfarsouseh.” The Venezia Hotel in al-Bahsa “has been turned into a military barracks for the Iranians.”

Such news comes amid a flurry of reports that Russia has made plans for a direct military intervention in Syria’s four-year civil war and may actually have started one already. The New York Times reported Saturday that Russia has sent prefabricated housing units, capable of sheltering as many as 1,000 military personnel, and a portable air traffic control station to another Syrian airbase in Latakia. That coastal province, the Assad family’s ancestral home, has already seen Russian troops caught on video operating BTR-82 infantry fighting vehicles against anti-Assad rebels, atop rumors that Moscow may be deploying an “expeditionary force,” including Russian pilots who would fly combat missions.

They may already be doing so. A social media account affiliated with the al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra posted images of what appeared to be Russian Air Force jets and drones flying in the skies of Syria’s northwest Idlib province. They were, specifically, the Mig-29 Fulcrum, the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker, the Su-34 Fullback, and the Pchela-1T drone. These images were analyzed as credible by the specialist website The Aviationist, which also noted that “during the past days, Flightradar24.com has exposed several flights of a Russian Air Force… Il-76 airlifter (caught by means of its Mode-S transponder) flying to and from Damascus using radio call sign ‘Manny 6,’ most probably supporting the deployment of a Russian expeditionary force.”

As Weiss noted, the terrorist group ISIS is not in Idlib province -- preliminary evidence suggests, then, that the Russian intention is not to kill terrorists but to combat all forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar al Assad, including moderate units which are nominally supported by the West:

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 04:15 PM
ISIS featured the use of MANPADS (anti-aircraft shoulder missiles) again in their very new video from #Sinai #Egypt pic.twitter.com/KPJQNUTVlY

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 04:50 PM
Putin is now calling out Obama with his Syrian Express naval operation in full swing and the parallel airlift starting-----

Putin is going all-in for his boy Assad. To show Obama as weak, powerless, and unreliable. Because he can. He knows it. The world watches.

RU Foreign Ministry: "No, there are no RU soldiers in Syria, EU spreads this rumor and it is just as untrue as the rumors about Ukraine"

Notice the Russian weaponization of information at work--core of the Russian non linear warfare and the WH says absolutely nothing.


Haaretz.com ✔ @haaretzcom
WATCH: Russia holds military drill as experts in Syria inspect and expand air bases http://dlvr.it/C4v59P pic.twitter.com/5jmTFjpTNb

More Russian ships through the Bosphorous today https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/640922550546120708 …

More Russian ships covering their bulky cargo with tarps.

Built in Yantar Zavod in Kaliningrad, 50-year-old Saratov is equipped with bow and stern ramps for unloading vehicles pic.twitter.com/lqfbRamyCe

Tapir class Saratov 150 hoisted 'Stay Clear of Me' signal flag, on the Bosphorus pic.twitter.com/vgi2x2CS4x

BSF landing ship Saratov packed to the gunnels with military equipment en route to #Syria @bellingcat @IHS4DefRiskSec pic.twitter.com/Wnx7AmlBN3

SyrianExpress continues. Project 1171 BSF Alligator class landing ship Saratov 150 transits southbound Bosphorus pic.twitter.com/8gU1sCCMaz

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 04:55 PM
Putin is now calling out Obama with his Syrian Express naval operation in full swing and the parallel airlift starting-----

Putin is going all-in for his boy Assad. To show Obama as weak, powerless, and unreliable. Because he can. He knows it. The world watches.

RU Foreign Ministry: "No, there are no RU soldiers in Syria, EU spreads this rumor and it is just as untrue as the rumors about Ukraine"

Notice the Russian weaponization of information at work--core of the Russian non linear warfare and the WH says absolutely nothing.


Haaretz.com ✔ @haaretzcom
WATCH: Russia holds military drill as experts in Syria inspect and expand air bases http://dlvr.it/C4v59P pic.twitter.com/5jmTFjpTNb

More Russian ships through the Bosphorous today https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/640922550546120708 …

More Russian ships covering their bulky cargo with tarps.

Built in Yantar Zavod in Kaliningrad, 50-year-old Saratov is equipped with bow and stern ramps for unloading vehicles pic.twitter.com/lqfbRamyCe

Tapir class Saratov 150 hoisted 'Stay Clear of Me' signal flag, on the Bosphorus pic.twitter.com/vgi2x2CS4x

BSF landing ship Saratov packed to the gunnels with military equipment en route to #Syria @bellingcat @IHS4DefRiskSec pic.twitter.com/Wnx7AmlBN3

SyrianExpress continues. Project 1171 BSF Alligator class landing ship Saratov 150 transits southbound Bosphorus pic.twitter.com/8gU1sCCMaz

More Russian weaponization of information on Syria---tone is changing and getting harsher---

West meddled in social engineering in MidEast and results are knocking on its door. They try to drag RU into this" http://www.rus.rusemb.org.uk/fnapr/4527

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 05:28 PM
AND more of the same Syrian weaponization information theme---

Sputnik International

17:17 07.09.2015(updated 18:20 07.09.2015)


Western media earlier reported that Russia had allegedly made a deal with the United States and Saudi Arabia on ousting Syrian leader Bashar Assad.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russia considers recent media reports indicating changes in its stance on Syria and the future of President Bashar Assad as false allegations aimed at shifting responsibility for the failure of Western policies in the Middle East, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Monday.

"Russia consistently and determinedly supports the strict implementation of the Geneva communique on Syria adopted on June 30, 2012, adhering the norms and principles of the international law and respecting the sovereignty of other states," ministry's spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement.

"I would like to reiterate that Russia does not practice social engineering, we do not appoint or dismiss foreign presidents, being it on our own will or in agreement with somebody else. It concerns Syria and other states in the region, which are able to decide their future by themselves," Zakharova stressed.

Russia Never Concealed Hardware Deliveries to Syrian Government
Syria has been mired in civil war since 2011 as government forces loyal to President Assad have been fighting several opposition and radical Islamist militant groups, including Nusra Front and Islamic State.

A number of Western countries have long supported what they call "moderate" rebel fighters, while Russia has repeatedly stated that Assad is the legitimate president of Syria, and that the people of Syria must choose their government and leaders without outside intervention.

In August, the Syrian president said that he highly appreciated Russia's assistance, by which Moscow had proved its firm position in supporting Damascus during the military conflict.

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150907/1026698433.html#ixzz3l4fTVk00

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 05:31 PM
Humor---

We are not sending arms to Syria. We are sending legs, bodies & heads too.

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 05:32 PM
A Russian Antonov 124 flying into Latakia, Syria today. One of two tracked by @GeordieNick89 https://twitter.com/GeordieNick89/status/640933715770777600 …

Real reason Russians in Syria—check the pipelines that run through Syria.
pic.twitter.com/CJNNtyOAfG

Russian military cargo ships Saratov, Ktachenko and Korolev go to #Tartus passing through #Bosphorus. #Syria pic.twitter.com/ZhZbDSLIzp

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 05:44 PM
On the same day @mfa_russia says "no RU troops in Syria", actual RU marines with guns post their [geotagged] photos. WHAT'S GOING ON??

Yesterday in Tartus, Syria: now we have the exact brigade id. pic.twitter.com/VsJEPz5XJQ

Confirmation of the Russian fighting in the posted video yesterday—fighting NOT advising……
Ukrainian activists saying this BTR-82 belongs to В/ч 61899 СЕВАСТОПОЛЬСКАЯ 27 ОМСБр pic.twitter.com/NrCsumE3Hk

336 Baltic-navy brigade, now in Syria, was previously sent twice near the Ukraine border https://informnapalm.org/3133-podrazdelenye-336-j-brygady-morskoj-pehoty-baltflota-v-sostave-rossyjskoj-gruppyrovky-syl-vtorzhenyya …

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 06:28 PM
Aftermath of the deadly barrel bomb attack in Ariha earlier today. #Syria #Idlib pic.twitter.com/t05bjeAN5a

Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
This--> Barrel Bombs, Not ISIS, Are the Greatest Threat to Syrians http://nyti.ms/1SNJi4N

Islamic State takes Syrian state's last oilfield
http://www.unian.info/world/1119739-islamic-state-takes-syrian-states-last-oilfield.html … pic.twitter.com/6GAZ5qMrEh

Russian troops posting on vKontakte from Tartus, Syria yesterday …" http://ow.ly/RSOCz

BREAKING: #RUSSIA|N SUBMARINE WITH 20 ICBMs AND 200 #NUCLEAR WARHEAD IS SALING TO #SYRIA. http://www.debka.com/article/24873/Russian-submarine-with-20-ICBMs-and-200-nuclear-warheads-is-sailing-to-Syria …

Lavrov to Kerry: premature to discuss #Russia's military ops in #Syria. It's always premature, until it's too late. http://reut.rs/1iroobw

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 06:46 PM
Druze Shk. Balous in leaked video before he was killed accuses Ali Mamlouk and regime of planning to kill him.
http://www.aljazeera.net/home/Getpage/f6451603-4dff-4ca1-9c10-122741d17432/242c3d12-b64a-47ec-b997-f52a52435338 …

New Assad recruiting campaign : "are you between 18-45? Can you operate a weapon? Come and get armed"

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 07:16 PM
http://www.interpretermag.com/september-7-2015/#9853

First Reports of 'Cargo 200' from Syria Not Verified; Russians Are in Syria But No Confirmation of Deaths

18:17 (GMT)


The first "Cargo 200" or soldier Russian soldier killed in action has been reported from the war in Syria, Joininfo.ua, Press.today and Riasv.ru reported September 5.

Yet The Interpreter has found that the stories appear to be either garbled or deliberate disinformation and cannot be verified.

"Russia's army is letting itself be known due to its losses not only in the Donbass but in the Middle East where the conflict with ISIS continues," says Pressa.today. At least 10 Russian Federation Armed Forces infantry were killed in battle, says Pressa.today, citing Russian social media (translation by The Interpreter):

A Russian blogger, Yelena Weber, claimed on Facebook that the bodies of as many as 103 Russian mliitary who died in a missile strike in the Syrian province of Raqqa were discussed at the military airport in Ain Issa.

The story is accompanied by pictures from social media of Russian paratroopers in their typical blue-and-white telnashka or t-shirt standing next to a poster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and President Vladimir Putin.

Joinfo.ua doesn't supply a link to that Facebook, but then posts a screenshot of a Tweet from a Russian blogger @Shymanovski:

He made the tweet on September 4 and has it pinned it to the top of his feed now:

Translation: New Russian Series, "Moscow Doesn't Believe in Coffines." Season 2. Syria.

The reference is to a famous movie of the perestroika era, "Moscow Doesn't Believe in Tears" and in this context refers to the unwillingness of Russians to believe their country's soldiers are deployed -- and killed -- abroad.

Joininfo.ua showed Shymanovski's tweet juxtaposed to Weber's Facebook post, but it turns out it's not @Shymanovski who has tweeted the link to her, but visa versa:

We found Weber's post on Facebook.

Weber's Facebook page shows she is a Russian-language blogger based in Neuhardenberg, Germany. It's not her original report, but a copy of a post in a group in the Russian social media network VKontakte called "Tipichny Dombas," which is a pejorative version of the term "Donbass," i.e. which translates to"Typical Dumbass," with the comment, "Well, it's started!" She didn't link to the group, but we found their post here.

She -- like other bloggers and groups -- copied verbatim the text posted September 5 (translation by The Interpreter).

The Turkish authorities reported that 45 Pskov paratroopers became victims of a rocket strike during an operation on the territory of Syria. As a result of shelling of a training camp in the Syrian province of Raqqa, five servicemen from the GRU spetsnaz were killed. According to information from Associated Press, as a result of shelling 10 marines from Vladivostok were killed.

As Press TV reports siting a local television network, the bodies of the remaining soldiers remain unidentified although it is known that military came to the eastern and northern military districts of districts of Russia. Another 70 servicemen, the majority of whom are paratroopers, were wounded, some of them are in serious condition.

According to the TV channel, more than 40 units of armor and military trucks were destroyed durint the shelling, including 12 T-72 tanks, and three Ka-51 military plans and two IL-76 transport planes were burnt.

Even members of "Tipichny Dombas" commented that they thought the story was fake, but others said it must be true because Russia always denied its presence in foreign wars and then it was later confirmed.

But we didn't find any such report on the AP of any Russian military deaths.

The New York Times quoted AP on September 4 in a story about the Russian presence, without any such references to Russians killed in action:

Russia has sent a military advance team to Syria and is taking other steps the United States fears may signal that President Vladimir V. Putin is planning to vastly expand his military support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, administration officials said Friday.

The Russian moves, including the recent transport of prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people to a Syrian airfield and the delivery of a portable air traffic control station there, are another complicating factor in Secretary of State John Kerry’s repeated efforts to enlist Mr. Putin’s support for a diplomatic solution to the bloody conflict in Syria.

The Russians have also filed military overflight requests with neighboring countries through September.



The story mentions Putin speaking in Vladivostok at the recent Eastern Economic Forums, but nothing about any soldiers from that city who were killed.

As for the "Turkish authorities," we couldn't find any credible news report of this statement, either. Independent Russian media has reported the Russian presence in Syria, but not any "Cargo 200". Novaya Gazeta did make the point, however, that the news reminded them of the early days of the war in Ukraine:

Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the president of Russian denies the participation of Russian Armed Forces in the conflict in Syria, and official NATO representatives are keeping silent for the time being. The situation around the the Russian military presence is technically reminiscent of the onset of the hybrid war on the territory of Ukraine. Incidentally, parallel to the first rumors of the appearance of the Russian corps in Syria observers recorded a sharp de-escalation of the conflict in the Donbass. It's as if the specialists in conducting "hybrid war" have been drawn away to a new project.

It is mainly alternative Ukrainian press that have reported this "Cargo 200 from Syria" story and some Russian bloggers and commenters, such as one reader named "SALO SPEC" who posted the same exact text as Elena Weber regarding the bodies of "103 Russian military" and the "Turkish authorities" on the "45 Pskov paratroopers" in the comments section belowthe Novaya Gazeta story,

Continued........

OUTLAW 09
09-07-2015, 07:17 PM
This picture perfectly sums up Putin's Syria strategy. Totally not flimsy/dependand on NATO countries' goodwill. pic.twitter.com/UzNg0ek0QF

Alexander Yakovenko ✔ @Amb_Yakovenko
Russia in contact with US on developments in Syria.Proposal to create an anti-IS coalition to be considered by UN SC pic.twitter.com/yoboWeM4PD

Russia builds military base in Latakia on the border to NATO member Turkey http://ow.ly/RTn8O pic.twitter.com/XfQkIimA6M

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 05:26 AM
Where are the revolutionary/progressive forces in Syria? Either:
A) in prison
B) in exile
C) dead
All thanks to Assad.

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 09:07 AM
Syrian cargo aircraft Il-76T [YK-ATA] from Damascus to Tehran or Moscow this morning pic.twitter.com/ZimDYOGUPz

Russian Ambassador to London doesn't see anything wrong in helping barrel-bomb civilians in #Syria ... https://twitter.com/Amb_Yakovenko/status/641167600639197185 …

Russia Answers U.S. Criticism Over Military Aid to Syria
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/08/world/europe/russia-answers-us-criticism-over-military-aid-to-syria.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Russian military plane IL-62 arrived in Latakia from Moscow pic.twitter.com/kmAJi8WnL4
BTW--this flight route does not require NATO approval

So you think Russia's Syrian expedition will weaken capacity to invade Ukraine? Less than 0.01% of Russian Armed Forces committed to Syria.

davidbfpo
09-08-2015, 10:13 AM
One potential aspect of increasing overt Russian support for the Assad regime, ostensibly to fight only ISIS, is the chance of "green" on "blue". The "green" being Russian combat forces, especially in the air, encountering Allied "blue" coalition aircraft and drones.

The UK Conservative government indicated before the recent announcement of a UK drone strike on British ISIS members plotting attacks, that it was a nonsense that the RAF could attack ISIS targets in Iraq and not Syria.

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 10:18 AM
Humor---

There isn't a Syrian alive who'll say Assad does most of the killing with Russian weapons. They're all dead.

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 10:52 AM
Rebels started a new operation in south seeking to capture Tal Qarin & Advance around it pic.twitter.com/3FWvgS1zmi

Bulgaria refused to Russia with air corridors for humanitarian aid aircrafts for
Syria https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/641199982981328896 …

Russian vessel ALEKSANDR TKACHENKO likely on the way to Syria. https://twitter.com/KerimBozkurt/status/640623695090860032 …

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 11:49 AM
http://news.yahoo.com/rouhani-iran-ready-hold-talks-syria-us-saudi-084102993.html

Notice--an interesting twist on Iranian weaponization of information---NOW when Assad is losing and Hezbollah can no longer defend him and Russian troops and heavy weapons is flowing in Syria--NOW Iran wants to talk---it is hard to envision that Assad proxy to Russia and Iran will be kicked out and a Sunni led government installed--especially if this means cutting the lines of communication to Hezbollah in Lebanon--that will never happen in our life times. Iran uses non linear warfare as does Russian in masking the simple fact their troops are fighting in Syria.


Rouhani: Iran ready to hold talks on Syria with US, Saudi


TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran's president said on Tuesday that his country is ready to hold talks with the United States and Saudi Arabia on ways to resolve Syria's civil war, providing such negotiations can secure peace and democracy in conflict-torn Syria.

Hassan Rouhani's remarks came during a press conference with visiting Austrian counterpart Heinz Fischer, when the Iranian leader was asked if he would sit down and negotiate with the Saudis and Americans on the Syrian crisis.

"Iran will sit at any table with regional countries and world powers if the outcome will be a safer, stable and democratic future for Syria," Rouhani said, adding this is part of Iran's commitment to "international, Islamic and humane" norms.

Shiite powerhouse Iran is a leading patron of Syrian President Bashar Assad and accuses Sunni rival Saudi Arabia and the U.S. of siding with anti-Assad rebels and militants. Tehran has also sent military advisers to Damascus to help Assad's troops against the Islamic State group. Iran, however, denies sending combat forces to help Assad militarily.

Rouhani also urged the international community to prioritize halting the bloodshed, rather than Syrian opposition demands, such as Assad's ouster. Western countries, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have repeatedly called for Assad to step down.

"It is not a matter of supporting a specific individual or government," said Rouhani. "While people of Syria are being killed and displaced, is it really a priority to discuss opposition groups ... and changes in the (Syrian) constitution?"

"Foreign countries and powers should not and cannot decide about the future of Syria but should help bring about security in Syria," he added.

Following the landmark nuclear deal in July between Tehran and world powers, Iran is increasingly working to strengthen ties with Western countries.


Now four years later Iran wants a safer, stable and democratic Syria--that was exactly what the opposition forces demanded four years ago and were killed for that demand. BUT notice no where did it say Assad had to go which the KSA FM openly stated in Moscow last month.

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 12:09 PM
What was being seen on several of the Russian military transports ships were carrying---

The Square X lashed casements toward the bow are modular expandable buildings.
The Red Trucks are crash tenders for an Airstrip.


BreakingNews Bulgaria has denied Russia use of its airspace for supply flights to Syria http://ara.tv/9p2sy

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 02:21 PM
Senior Foreign Policy Adviser to #Khamenei said "only Assad can save #Syria."

VIDEO: Russian army training in the port of the city of Tartus, Syria.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSNbrLirYkQ … pic.twitter.com/oDxtL3mzgN

Russia is currently sending large combat forces to Syria to support Assad, but not to fight ISIS -- they want the U.S. to do that.

Putin is serious about entering Syria — and not to go after ISIS http://read.bi/1NnqupC via @BI_Defense

Israel wary of Russian military build-up in Syria
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4698920,00.html …

The Bulgarian foreign ministry said: "We have enough information that makes us have serious doubts about the cargo of the planes"

After yesterday's Antonov flights, Bulgaria now says it is denying Russian requests to use its airspace for supply flights to Syria

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 02:27 PM
Humor about the new Russian flight plans to reach Syria after Bulgaria stop them------

After Bulgaria closes airspace, #Russia's MoD comes up with a new shortcut for aid flights to #Syria pic.twitter.com/9kmCHIwIwc

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 02:36 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/08/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN0R81Q820150908

Tue Sep 8, 2015 10:05am EDT

Syria denies Russian combat troops fighting alongside army

AMMAN


Syria's information minister denied on Tuesday reports of a Russian military buildup in his country, saying there were no Russian combat forces fighting alongside the army against mainly Islamist insurgents.

Omran al-Zoubi said the reports were "concocted in Western intelligence circles" to show the army was too weak without help from its foreign ally, and as a pretext for further support for rebels from countries who want President Bashar al-Assad ousted.

"There are no Russian forces and there is no Russian military action on Syrian territory neither by land, by sea or by air," Zoubi told Lebanese militant group Hezbollah's Manar television station.

"All of this is to insinuate the Syrian state is weak and that the Syrian military has weakened to the point of resorting to the aid of friends in a direct manner".

Russia, a traditional arms supplier to Damascus, has been a vital ally of Assad throughout the war that has fractured Syria into a patchwork of areas controlled by rival armed groups, including Islamic State, leaving the government in control of much of the west.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday Russia had always provided military supplies to Syria, saying Moscow "has never concealed that it delivers military equipment to official Syrian authorities with the aim of combating terrorism".

The New York Times said Russia had sent a military advance team to Syria, citing American intelligence analysts.

Several leading newspapers in the region, citing Syrian sources, have also reported growing numbers of Russian troops stationed at a new military base near the coastal stronghold of Assad's minority Alawite sect in Latakia.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Lavrov on Saturday that if reports of the build-up were accurate, that could further escalate the war and risk confrontation with the U.S.-led alliance that is bombing Islamic State in Syria.

Defense experts say military support for Assad from Tehran and Moscow has allowed the army to absorb advances by insurgents who, while better equipped than before, still remain mostly defenseless against government air strikes.

Foreign states are already deeply involved in the war that has killed a quarter of a million people. While Russia and Iran have backed Assad, rebel groups seeking to oust him have received support from governments including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

"This is one of the most difficult types of wars because many countries and intelligence quarters are intervening with open-ended funds and lots of foreign terrorists," Zoubi said.


Seems we have another Ukrainian social media experience here--social media proves using Russian photos, videos and VK entries that in fact Russian troops are in Syria and have been fighting there as well.

Ah... the power of open source analysis using social media.

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 07:34 PM
'Russia to react to Bulgaria’s closure of airspace to Russian Syria-bound planes'
http://tass.ru/en/russia/819636 …
'unfriendly move'


Rebels (#FSA brigade.6, Regiment 111 etc) now storming Markabah village near Lataminah, N #Hama province pic.twitter.com/VcNVubgyOo

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 07:37 PM
Iraq's Sistani sent message to #Iran's Khamenei questioning Qassem Soleimani’s influence: report http://mme.cm/U49U00 via @NOW_eng

Russia's leading propagandists are shifting their focus to #Syria - the next step in #Putin's unfolding plan. pic.twitter.com/otbGytHQ6Z

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 07:41 PM
Russian weaponization of information warriors are saving money by flipping anti Ukrainian propaganda into Syrian propaganda-----

Putin #Ukraine Propaganda "Queen" Maria Tsypko is now a #Syrian "LOCAL" https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Intl/status/640943203106033665 … pic.twitter.com/Efq8IY3h7J

Ukraine Déjà vu? #Syria(n) LOCAL CITIZENS ask #Putin to send weapons (troops) to help them https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Intl/status/640943203106033665 … pic.twitter.com/Pqw8X0O4Lc

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 08:19 PM
Russia Fumes at Bulgaria for Barring Syria-Bound Flights

The Associated Press

Sep. 08 2015 21:17
Last edited 21:17

Klearchos Kapoutsis / Wikicommons


Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry earlier said the country is refusing to allow Russian military transport aircraft to fly through its airspace en route to Syria from Sept. 1-24.

Russia on Tuesday lashed out at Bulgaria over its refusal to allow Russian cargo planes bound for Syria to fly over its territory, saying the move has cast doubts on the nation's independence.

The angry statement comes amid signs of a Russian military build-up in Syria that has raised U.S. concerns. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov alleged that Bulgaria and Greece are facing pressure from Washington.

Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry earlier said the country is refusing to allow Russian military transport aircraft to fly through its airspace en route to Syria from Sept. 1-24. It said without elaboration that the reason for the refusal was "incorrect information" about the purpose of the flights and the cargo.

On Monday, Greek Foreign Ministry spokesman Constantinos Koutras said the U.S. has asked Greece to cancel overflight permission for flights headed to Syria. He said Athens is examining the request.

"If they make some restrictive or banning measures at American request, that raises a question about their sovereign right to make decisions about foreign planes crossing its airspace," Bogdanov said, according to the Interfax news agency.

U.S. defense officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the sensitive issue, said the U.S. has seen an increasing number of Russian transport planes seeking diplomatic approval for flights into Syria. They have also seen the movement of some prefabricated housing in Syria, although they haven't seen any troops moving in or becoming involved in actual combat activities, as some media reports suggested.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov over the weekend to express concern, warning that if reports about the Russian military build-up in Syria were accurate, it could further escalate the conflict, increase refugee flows and raise the threat of confrontation with the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group.

Russia has staunchly backed Syrian President Bashar Assad throughout the nation's 4 1/2-year civil war, providing his regime with weapons and keeping military advisers in Syria.

President Vladimir Putin said again Friday that Russia is providing the Syrian military with weapons and training. Asked if Russia could deploy its troops to Syria to help fight the IS, Putin answered coyly, saying "we are looking at various options."

OUTLAW 09
09-08-2015, 08:24 PM
Ditto in Iran. Iran Says Democracy Not a 'Priority' in Syria Now — Naharnet http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/189363

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 04:47 AM
More military heavy equipment to Syria---

RUS buoy tender KIL158 passing through Bosphorus w cargo on deck @YorukIsik @alperboler @SerhatGuvenc @KerimBozkurt pic.twitter.com/X4VrP275ET

Syria : KIL158 in #Sevastopol (Sep 1st) being loaded with military equipment now heading for #Assad in #Latakia pic.twitter.com/b6TQEOwgiq

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 06:55 AM
Some rumours there is pressure on Abadi to send Shia militias to Syria... http://fb.me/y2BsuC78

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 11:02 AM
Remember the number of times I mentioned the term "weaponization of information". In any UW strategic strategy being used by Russia, Iran, IS and China--it is the key cornerstone to that strategy.

Remember how I indicated we the US public do not clearly understand day to day events in Syria that has played out over the last four years AND how western mainstream media is responsible for that.

WELL here is a perfect example actually more than perfect (it could be used in a classroom)of Russian "weaponization of information" twisted to depict Putin as this great forward thinking leader with massive foresight, depicting Assad as the global savior in the war on IS.

WHAT is totally missing is the following;

1. he fails to address the simple mathematical fact that IS has killed and or wounded seven times fewer Syrians than has Assad and his militaty

2. the UN has released a study on the torture used by Assad against his own civil society that have out rivals anything Is has relased in their videos--there was recently even a photo display in the UN that shocked all--but no response out of the UNSC

3. Assad has in fact lost 85% of his territory not only to IS but to the Kurds, and to moderate/radicalized Islamists

4. Russia has delivered all the weapons that the Assad military has needed since the fighting began in 2011 over demands by the silent majority to participate in their own government since Assad is actually a minority dictator--Russia continues to provide aircraft and bombs

5. the author fails to also address that Russia has repeatedly blocked any attempts by the UNSC to address Syria

6. he fails to address that the Russian Foreign Minister Larvov under his breath but caught by audio accused the KSA FM of being a "blooming idiot" (mildly put in Russain) for publicly stating in Moscow that Assad is the problem not the solution

7. he fails to mention that the barrel bomb concepts were passed to the Syrians by the IRGC/Iran and are being flown on Russian supplied aircraft

8. he fails to mention that Hezbollah the Iranian proxy has been fighting along side Assad since 2011 and still is fighting along side of him so with Russian arms AND now troops flowing in is in fact Russia supporting the Iranian foreign policy in Syria????

9. he fails to mention that Iran will never allow a break in the lines of communication between Tehran and Lebanon to occur--even yesterday the senior advisor to Khamenei declared there was no immediate need for democracy in Syria--the exact demands that started this mess in 2011

10. he fails to mention that hundreds of Iraqi Shiite militia are fighting in Syria

I could go on forever--BUT this is a masterpiece of "work with Putin", forget his invasion of eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea and his total disrespect of international law --AS he is the soul and savior of Syria---just work with him and all will be fine.

BUT again did he point out that far far far more Syrians have been driven out of Syria and or killed than ever killed or driven out by IS.

NOT a single sentence---that is "weaponization of information".

The Russian propaganda 6 Ds at work--distract, dismay, distort, deflect designed to create doubt and distrust.

All of the Ds are in this article--BUT he is just a "normal Russian with his "normal" opinion BUT he is a Russian oligarch and the total owner of the Independent--that is a dangerous mix in the world of mass media.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/an-alliance-of-western-leade...

Evgeny Lebedev

Wednesday 9 September 2015

An alliance of Western leaders, Muslim nations and Vladimir Putin is the only way to defeat Isis



The group is the biggest threat to humanity that the world has faced in the 21st century.

It took a picture. The image of little Aylan Kurdi dead on a beach in Bodrum, Turkey, appears at last to have woken the world from its slumber in relation to the horror of modern Syria. Iconic photography has changed the course of history before, most notably during the Vietnam War. Some good may yet emerge from the tragically brief life of a drowned three year-old, if it prompts not only a generous response to the biggest humanitarian catastrophe in Europe since the Second World War, but also – and in my view just as vital – a strong, ruthless international mission to deal with this problem at source. And that means defeating the savagery of so-called Islamic State.

Even young Kurdi's name, containing as it does the name of a long persecuted minority, gives a clue as to the sectarian nature of this crisis. Today, right in front of our eyes, whole civilisations are being expunged, and we cannot save them if we deceive ourselves about the nature and identity of the enemy.

I believe that a militant, radical, mutated form of Islam is the greatest threat to humanity the world has faced in the 21st century. It unites Central Africa with Eastern Asia, and has sympathisers and affiliates from Lahore to - shocking to me - Dewsbury in Yorkshire. But its locus is in the Middle East, and specifically the lawless terrain between what is left of Syria and Iraq. It is true that some of the refugees heading our way - your way - are fleeing Eritrea and Afghanistan. But all the evidence is clear: the majority are Syrian.

I have spent some time in the Middle East, where any attentive visitor can immediately see the traces of truly great civilisations. I fear a generation growing up unaware that ancient Baghdad was home to the world's greatest scholars; that the lands of Persia and Mesopotamia were home to artistic flourishing; that people of different faiths lived and loved happily from Cairo to Constantinople. And at the heart of it all was the majesty and beauty of Syria.
Continued.........

Russian FM is disparately trying to change the subject/narrative from the invasion of the Ukraine, annexation of Crimea--to the Putin the great soul and savior of Syria--saving the from the murdering and rampaging IS WHICH flies in the face of reality in Assad's killing of far more Syrians than has than IS and being directly responsible for the 5M plus refugees with his barrel bombs, and chemical attacks using weapons delivered by Putin.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Cooperation w/ USA in many areas, incl. fight against #IS is hampered by US political stance http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150909/1026767926.html#ixzz3lEZD9YIu … pic.twitter.com/8NObgXAY0K

Putin is attempting to show the ME that it is he who wants to protect them NOT the US and he is trying hard to get back to business a usual and to get the sanctions dropped for his cooperation in Syria--BUT he fulfills not a single point in Minsk 2 in the Ukraine.

Typical Russian Orwellian doublespeak at work.

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 11:07 AM
REMEMBER--at first Putin, his Foreign Minister and the FM press released utterly denied any Russian troops in Syria and or fighting in Syria--THEN kicks in social media with tens of Russian troop photos, and a combat video.

Just like they still are arguing there are no Russian troops in the Ukraine despite over 20 being actually captured and 10 returned to Russia.

THEN this----

Alexander Yakovenko ✔ @Amb_Yakovenko
Russian military specialists are in Syria to help its army to handle new Russian-made military equipment pic.twitter.com/KkSjZ34omd

VIDEO Russian soldiers on holiday in Syrian port of Tarsus 'teaching' how to use Russian equipment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvrda0rbwJk …

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 11:27 AM
Ah………… now comes more Russian threats against a nation state that does not “perform” to the standards set by Putin----

Russian Embassy, UK ✔ @RussianEmbassy
Bulgaria's decision to close airspace for Rus.planes with cargoes for Syria raises questions about its sovereignty pic.twitter.com/UYVgY7QKQ8

Syria 10.30 GMT+1, 9 September 2015 from @RussianEmbassy pic.twitter.com/G7UvTRKWsU

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 11:32 AM
Ah………… now comes more Russian threats against a nation state that does not “perform” to the standards set by Putin----

Russian Embassy, UK ✔ @RussianEmbassy
Bulgaria's decision to close airspace for Rus.planes with cargoes for Syria raises questions about its sovereignty pic.twitter.com/UYVgY7QKQ8

Syria 10.30 GMT+1, 9 September 2015 from @RussianEmbassy pic.twitter.com/G7UvTRKWsU

BUT THEN this........

RU MoD sources: "Russia intensified supply of weapons, via air-flights over BG, to Assad in August. This caused BG to ban further flights"

REMEMBER--initially the Russian MoD was "masking" these flights with the term "aid" alluding to "humanitarian aid" and not being more specific.

THE exact same concept with their so called "masked military supply runs" into eastern Ukraine which have been declared "humanitarian aid convoys" but really are carrying munitions, fuel and supplies for their army and her mercenaries.

WELL now we know exactly where Greece stands inside NATO after their 340B Euro bailout for their own economic failures--Iran we knew where they have always stood with Russia.

Greece and Iran have granted Russia right to use their airspace for Syria flights, Russian news agencies say - @Reuters via @Breaking

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 11:41 AM
VIDEO: Russian army conduct a live fire exercise in #Syria #Tartus - @ZombieTVonline
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSNbrLirYkQ … pic.twitter.com/8vYiuqij6K

Russian confirms the presence of military advisers in Syria, but says they are part of a longstanding deal. http://nyti.ms/1LjJIqj

BUT wait if long standing THEN why now—WHY not three years ago or a year ago---BUT wait it is Russia that has allowed at the same over 1000 russian jihadi’s to leave Russia for Syria to fight with the IS???

Double standards it seems at work here.

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 11:44 AM
Remember the number of times I mentioned the term "weaponization of information". In any UW strategic strategy being used by Russia, Iran, IS and China--it is the key cornerstone to that strategy.

Remember how I indicated we the US public do not clearly understand day to day events in Syria that has played out over the last four years AND how western mainstream media is responsible for that.

WELL here is a perfect example actually more than perfect (it could be used in a classroom)of Russian "weaponization of information" twisted to depict Putin as this great forward thinking leader with massive foresight, depicting Assad as the global savior in the war on IS.

WHAT is totally missing is the following;

1. he fails to address the simple mathematical fact that IS has killed and or wounded seven times fewer Syrians than has Assad and his militaty

2. the UN has released a study on the torture used by Assad against his own civil society that have out rivals anything Is has relased in their videos--there was recently even a photo display in the UN that shocked all--but no response out of the UNSC

3. Assad has in fact lost 85% of his territory not only to IS but to the Kurds, and to moderate/radicalized Islamists

4. Russia has delivered all the weapons that the Assad military has needed since the fighting began in 2011 over demands by the silent majority to participate in their own government since Assad is actually a minority dictator--Russia continues to provide aircraft and bombs

5. the author fails to also address that Russia has repeatedly blocked any attempts by the UNSC to address Syria

6. he fails to address that the Russian Foreign Minister Larvov under his breath but caught by audio accused the KSA FM of being a "blooming idiot" (mildly put in Russain) for publicly stating in Moscow that Assad is the problem not the solution

7. he fails to mention that the barrel bomb concepts were passed to the Syrians by the IRGC/Iran and are being flown on Russian supplied aircraft

8. he fails to mention that Hezbollah the Iranian proxy has been fighting along side Assad since 2011 and still is fighting along side of him so with Russian arms AND now troops flowing in is in fact Russia supporting the Iranian foreign policy in Syria????

9. he fails to mention that Iran will never allow a break in the lines of communication between Tehran and Lebanon to occur--even yesterday the senior advisor to Khamenei declared there was no immediate need for democracy in Syria--the exact demands that started this mess in 2011

10. he fails to mention that hundreds of Iraqi Shiite militia are fighting in Syria

I could go on forever--BUT this is a masterpiece of "work with Putin", forget his invasion of eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea and his total disrespect of international law --AS he is the soul and savior of Syria---just work with him and all will be fine.

BUT again did he point out that far far far more Syrians have been driven out of Syria and or killed than ever killed or driven out by IS.

NOT a single sentence---that is "weaponization of information".

The Russian propaganda 6 Ds at work--distract, dismay, distort, deflect designed to create doubt and distrust.

All of the Ds are in this article--BUT he is just a "normal Russian with his "normal" opinion BUT he is a Russian oligarch and the total owner of the Independent--that is a dangerous mix in the world of mass media.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/an-alliance-of-western-leade...

Evgeny Lebedev

Wednesday 9 September 2015

An alliance of Western leaders, Muslim nations and Vladimir Putin is the only way to defeat Isis




Russian FM is disparately trying to change the subject/narrative from the invasion of the Ukraine, annexation of Crimea--to the Putin the great soul and savior of Syria--saving the from the murdering and rampaging IS WHICH flies in the face of reality in Assad's killing of far more Syrians than has than IS and being directly responsible for the 5M plus refugees with his barrel bombs, and chemical attacks using weapons delivered by Putin.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Cooperation w/ USA in many areas, incl. fight against #IS is hampered by US political stance http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150909/1026767926.html#ixzz3lEZD9YIu … pic.twitter.com/8NObgXAY0K

Putin is attempting to show the ME that it is he who wants to protect them NOT the US and he is trying hard to get back to business a usual and to get the sanctions dropped for his cooperation in Syria--BUT he fulfills not a single point in Minsk 2 in the Ukraine.

Typical Russian Orwellian doublespeak at work.

REALITY on the ground though is somewhat different----

Asked woman from regime-held Mezze, Damascus, which group she was fleeing: "regime, Jaish al Islam, Daesh all the same. All are killing us"

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 12:04 PM
This administration IE Obama, Kerry and the entire 700 person NSC has no strategy--OTHER than pull back and disengage--THIS truly does remind me more and more of the Wilsonian FP period in the US. It was dangerous then and it is now just as dangerous as it leads to Putin missing clearly our intentions as he "cannot read the US".

OH by wait.....he does read Obama clearly and concisely---he has come to the decision that Obama is a very weak President and fearful of any confrontation that distracts from the legacy that he trying to establish---a moralistic view of foreign affairs where we are disengaging and allowing others to take the lead.

Remember in the WaPo Ann Applebaum article I posted here--he made a fatal mistake in viewing the Ukraine as a regional issue ie the EU--NOT fully realizing it was a superpower confrontation only occurring in Central Europe just as he viewed Syria as a regional problem.

Well he has made the same exact mistake in Syria---and now if he does not act the creditability of the US in the ME and other locations will be badly damaged for years to come.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mr-putin-makes-moves-in-syria-exploiting-us-inaction/2015/09/08/cd9fbe80-5648-11e5-abe9-27d53f250b11_story.html

Mr. Putin makes moves in Syria, exploiting America’s inaction

By Editorial Board September 8 at 8:08 PM


IN JULY, President Obama said he had been “encouraged” by a telephone call Russian President Vladi#mir Putin had initiated to discuss Syria. The Russians, Mr. Obama confidently declared, “get a sense that the Assad regime is losing a grip over greater and greater swaths of territory” and “that offers us an opportunity to have a serious conversation with them.” Not for the first time, Mr. Obama was supposing that Mr. Putin could be enlisted in a diplomatic settlement to the Syrian civil war along lines Washington and its Arab allies support. Not for the first time, the president appears to have badly misread the Russian ruler.

Far from abandoning its support for the Assad regime, Moscow appears to be doubling down. According to numerous reports, Russia is establishing a base at an airfield near an Assad stronghold on the Mediterranean coast and has filed military overflight requests with neighboring countries. Analysts believe Russia may be preparing to deploy 1,000 or more military personnel to Syria and to carry out air operations in support of Assad forces. Syrian rebels already have reported seeing Russian aircraft over territory they control.

The intelligence is serious enough to have prompted Secretary of State John F. Kerry to call Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday and to release a statement saying that he had warned that Russian actions “could further escalate the conflict . . . and risk confrontation” with the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State.

In reality, Mr. Putin’s strategy in Syria has been consistent. All along he has aimed to block any U.S.-backed move to remove Bashar al-Assad from power and aimed to force the West to embrace the regime as a partner in fighting the Islamic State. On Friday, Mr. Putin said his plan for a political transition in Syria, including parliamentary elections and a coalition government with “healthy” opposition factions, had Mr. Assad’s full support, which tells you all you need to know about it.

By preparing to deploy Russian ground and air forces to Syria, Mr. Putin is acknowledging a truth that Mr. Obama has refused to accept: Any political agenda for Syria’s future is meaningless unless it is backed by power on the ground. Mr. Assad will depart, as Mr. Obama has been predicting and urging him to do for four years, only if the balance of military force makes an opposition victory inevitable and imminent. If the United States had provided even the modest support to Syrian rebels that Mr. Obama promised but did not deliver — much less the more muscular effort proposed by many of his advisers — Moscow probably would not risk its own troops and aircraft.

As it is, Mr. Putin likely believes that U.S. weakness gives him an opportunity to tilt the military balance back toward the Assad regime. As Mr. Kerry’s statement put it, the result would be “greater loss of innocent lives” and increased refugee flows. But Moscow, like Damascus, will not be swayed by U.S. rhetoric. If Mr. Obama wishes to see the U.S. vision for Syria prevail over Russia’s, it will take more than phone calls.

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 12:09 PM
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/stantis/ct-russia-entering-syriawhat-could-go-wrong-20150908-story.html

By Scott Stantis


In an attempt to not crush the evil of ISIS, but rather to shore up the regime of the genocidal Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin's Russia is mobilizing for an intervention. However, never fear, Secretary of State John Kerry has issued a strongly worded condemnation. The Obama administration's Syria policy in a nutshell. Be prepared to witness numerous red-lines-in-the-sand being crossed. ........

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 12:27 PM
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/08/russian-troops-are-in-syria-and-we-have-the-selfies-to-prove-it/?utm_content=buffer53866&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Russian Troops Are in Syria, and We Have the Selfies to Prove It

By Reid Standish
September 8, 2015 - 5:48 pm


Standing against the backdrop of Istanbul’s iconic Bosphorus bridge, a young man in combat fatigues poses for a photo holding up a colorful sign that says “I love you” in Russian. He’s not a tourist, though. The man’s name is Maxim Mazhnikov; he’s a member of Russia’s 810th marine brigade; and he posted the photo to social media to document his journey to war-torn Syria.

What Mazhnikov will do when gets there remains a bit of a mystery, but he is one of many Russian troops from the same unit that have been tracked via social media as they make their way towards Syria. According to a report by Russian investigative journalist Ruslan Leviev, growing numbers of Russian troops over the last two months have been sent to a Russian naval maintenance facility in Tartus, in western Syria. The apparent Russian military build-up there is sending alarm bells ringing in Washington, where the Obama administration worries that Moscow may be stepping up its efforts to help Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad hold on to power.

Leviev’s research, which relies on posts by troops on Russia’s two biggest social networking sites, notes a shift in the types of troops being sent to Syria, from draftees to experienced career soldiers. Many of the posts have already been taken down, but Leviev managed to track down several troops from Russia’s 810th marine brigade and monitor their movement to Syria through the photos and status updates they posted online.

This photo, taken from VKontakte, Russia’s version of Facebook, shows Mazhnikov, a career soldier, crossing the Bosporus bridge in Istanbul en route to Tartus and was posted on March 29, 2015. (Click to enlarge.)

Photos taken from Mazhnikov’s profile on Odnoklassniki, another popular Russian networking site, show him in Syria at the Russian naval facility. The following photos were posted on Aug. 22, 2015.

Leviev also found Anatoly Golota, another member of the 810th brigade on VKontakte, whose status says “Off to Syria”.

Videos uploaded to the Internet in recent weeks have also sparked concerns that Russian forces are engaged in actual combat inside Syria. On Aug. 24, the Oryx blog, which monitors military developments in the Middle East and North Africa, pointed to combat footage filmed and posted by the media wing of Syria’s National Defence Force that showed a Russian-made BTR-82A armored vehicle near Latakia, in western Syria, with a color scheme used by Russian military units and not previously exported to Syria. As the armored vehicle is shooting in the video, orders can be heard in what appears to be Russian, raising speculation that troops sent by Moscow are taking part in fighting on the ground. Beyond the footage, however, there is little proof that Russian forces are engaged in Syria beyond their maintenance and advisory roles.

“The participation of [the] Russian fleet, special operation forces or aviation [forces] are all possible, but in very limited scale,” Nikolay Kozhanov, a fellow at the London-based Chatham House and a non-resident scholar at Carnegie Moscow Center, told Foreign Policy. “Putin will not send the army.”

Still, the influx of Russian troops, even if confined to Tartus, is indicative of the changing battlefield dynamics in Syria.

Since the war in Syria began, the Kremlin has been a key backer of the Assad regime, supporting Damascus economically, diplomatically, and militarily. Moscow was instrumental in helping to negotiate the deal in 2013 under which Assad gave up its chemical weapons in exchange for the U.S. rescinding plans to bomb his regime in response to his gassing of his own people. The Kremlin has been supplying weapons to the Syrian government throughout the ongoing war, and Russia has also played a role in training the Syrian military, with Russia’s former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov admitting in 2012 that Russia had “military and technical advisers” in Syria. Moreover, in October 2014, Syrian opposition fighters overran a joint Syrian-Russian listening center that was believed to be used for espionage operations.

According to Anna Borschevskaya, a fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert on Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, Moscow is using the fight against the Islamic State to try to persuade the West to allow Assad to remain in power, something that Washington and its Gulf allies have said is a precondition for any successful peace talks. Should Assad abruptly fall, the Islamic State would likely benefit the most and could control even more territory in Syria.

“This is central to Putin’s proposal on how to fight ISIS,” Borschevskaya told FP.

Moscow put forward a peace plan for Syria that envisions enlisting Assad regime and Iran in the anti-Islamic State coalition, but rounds of negotiations with Washington and Riyadh have brought no visible results.

Amid the uncertainty of the Syrian government’s longevity in the country, signs are pointing towards an even greater Russian presence in Syria — and the influx of more experienced troops, like those from the 810th brigade, to Tartus could be part of that shift.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed concern in a phone call to his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov over the weekend, saying that if the reports of a Russian military buildup were true, it could dramatically escalate the conflict. Kerry’s phone call came on the heels of a Sept. 4 New York Times report that Russia had sent a military advance team to Syria, as well prefabricated housing units to an airfield near Latakia where Russian humanitarian aid and military hardware have been unloaded.

Lavrov told Kerry it was premature to talk about Russia’s participation in military operations in Syria, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman told RIA Novosti on Monday. Still, Lavrov confirmed Moscow’s military commitment to the Assad regime, saying Russia “has never concealed that it delivers military equipment to official Syrian authorities with the aim of combating terrorism”.

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 12:28 PM
So Turkey stayed out of Iraq when it came to ISiS but invades Iraq to hit the Kurds. Hmmm https://twitter.com/afp/status/641215404954775552 …

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 12:59 PM
Khamenei said he will not negotiate with the US on any issue after the landmark nuclear deal https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/641585633333407745 …

Well so much interest in the Iranians in getting to a Syrian settlement since Russia their proxy is now on the ground in Syria--why negotiate on anything??????

Russian activities in Syria aimed at establishing "major air operations hub" http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-voices-concern-over-russias-buildup-in-syria-1441731196 …

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 01:44 PM
More Russian military in Syria photos---
Meanwhile in Syria pic.twitter.com/ikrh8Om3TJ

Back after 8 days in Aleppo. It's a horror show but I was inspired by the brave @SyriaCivilDef teams we followed. pic.twitter.com/j91WUJdlnK

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 01:55 PM
In the world of strategic UW strategy there is a perfect storm brewing between the merging of the Iranian and Russian anti US UW strategy in Syria in support of Assad.

While there have been multiple studies done especially on the Russian non linear warfare no one ever envisioned the merging of multiple versions of the same style of UW AND especially the accompanying "weaponization of information" elements.

We see now both Iran and Russia unleashing their individual "weaponization of information" efforts but fully aiming at the US.

The idea of a single strategic messaging/narrative controlled by two countries is intriguing at the least.

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 02:01 PM
In the world of strategic UW strategy there is a perfect storm brewing between the merging of the Iranian and Russian anti US UW strategy in Syria in support of Assad.

While there have been multiple studies done especially on the Russian non linear warfare no one ever envisioned the merging of multiple versions of the same style of UW AND especially the accompanying "weaponization of information" elements.

We see now both Iran and Russia unleashing their individual "weaponization of information" efforts but fully aiming at the US.

The idea of a single strategic messaging/narrative controlled by two countries is intriguing at the least.

From the totally Russian government owned information warrior media outlet-sputnik Intl -now we see how they are demonizing the very people that they pull out from rub le caused by Assad barrel bombs.

AND they are an legal media outlet in the US--AND now western mainstream media pushes back--AND why????

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150908/1026752193/ngo-rescue-civilians-western-propaganda.html#ixzz3lFYucSJ4

Soros-sponsored #WhiteHelmets uses NGO-status as cover-up to demonize #Assad government http://sptnkne.ws/GV5


One of the largest humanitarian organizations operating in war-torn Syria - the White Helmets - has been accused of being an anti-government propaganda arm that encourages direct foreign intervention.

In an article for the 21st Century Wire news service, investigative journalist and peace activist Vanesse Beeley says that the White Helmets use search and rescue activities as a cover-up to demonize Syrian President Assad and help terrorists.

The official website of the White Helmets says that its volunteers have already saved more than 20,000 people on all sides of the conflict, adding that the organization is following the principles of humanity, solidarity and impartiality outlined by the International Civil Defense Organization.

However, according to Beeley, the White Helmets and other NGO’s such as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, are used to justify the West’s policy of arming and supporting the insurgency in Syria.


Badly burned, one toddler's story exposes the horror of Syrian war which refugees are fleeing http://www.itv.com/news/2015-09-08/badly-burned-toddler-exposes-horror-refugees-are-fleeing/ … pic.twitter.com/Hm6Ki57AhR

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 02:06 PM
AND more Russian military equipment to Syria via the Syrian Express----

SyriaExpress is back! Tapir class landing ship Nikolai Filchenkov 152 transits southbound Bosphorus. pic.twitter.com/NKEDDVOVKY

Now being reported via BBC---

And another Russian ship carrying military cargo on deck heads south through the Bosphorus.... https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/641613438318473216 …

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 02:17 PM
One big reason so many #Syrians fleeing now is aggressive recruitment campaign by #Assad army 2 fill depleted ranks esp Damascus, Latakia.

One can see that in the large number of draft age young men showing up in the refugee flows into Germany-----

davidbfpo
09-09-2015, 04:38 PM
A comprehensive overview of the political and military situation in Syria, with an emphasis on why Russia has now choosen to intervene - as an advisory mission to the Syrian Army (SAA):http://europeans101.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/go-big-or-go-home-kremlins-syrian.html

The last paragraph:
No doubt Vladimir Putin and his allies in Russia's elites have convinced themselves that they have the military means to restore the SAA and even make a major contribution to defeating both IS and Syrian rebel armies. But to any observer of both Russia and the Syrian civil war outside the Kremlin information bubble, this strategy seems loaded with borderline-insane levels of risk. Following a string of defeats on all fronts against Syrian rebel armies, IS and on a more covert level the Kurdish YPG, it is increasingly apparent that Assad's Syrian army is closely approaching the point of no return. At the same time, there are signs that Iran is using it's influence over the NDF to prepare for a post-Assad future in which any preservation of the Kremlin's influence is at best a secondary concern. Just as the British and Americans faced pressures to escalate their involvement further in Iraq or Afghanistan every time local security forces proved unable to hold on, in a few months the Kremlin may be confronted with the same dilemmas it faces now over deepening involvement or abandoning the SAA. Yet the introduction of further Russian troops into Syria risks bringing the moment closer when Russian families start asking why their husbands and sons are dying in Qardaha or Homs, compounding a domestic crisis from which Vladimir Putin is so desperately trying to escape.

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 05:30 PM
Russia is not in an advisor role--effectively seen engaging in actual combat on the last two weeks---Russian professional Marines and GRU Spetsnaz.

Russia has not sent the conscripts--it has sent their professional army.

As a great man never said: "I told you so, you fxxxxxg fools." Exclusive: Russian troops join combat in Syria: http://reut.rs/1ixeK74



Russian forces have begun participating in military operations in Syria in support of government troops, three Lebanese sources familiar with the political and military situation there said on Wednesday.

The sources, speaking to Reuters on condition they not be identified, gave the most forthright account yet from the region of what U.S. officials say appears to be a new military buildup by Moscow, one of President Bashar al-Assad's main allies, though one of the sources said the numbers of Russians involved so far were small.

Two U.S. officials said Russia has sent two tank landing ships and additional aircraft to Syria in the past day or so and has deployed a small number of naval infantry forces.

The U.S. officials, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the intent of Russia's military moves in Syria remained unclear. One of the officials said initial indications suggested the focus was on preparing an airfield near the port city of Latakia, an Assad stronghold.

The moves come at a time when forces of Assad's government have faced major setbacks on the battlefield in a four-year-old multi-sided civil war that has killed 250,000 people and driven half of Syria's 23 million people from their homes.

Syrian troops pulled out of a major air base on Wednesday, and a monitoring group said this meant government soldiers were no longer present at all in Idlib province, most of which slipped from government control earlier this year.

Moscow confirmed it had "experts" on the ground.

But Russia has declined to comment on the exact scale and scope of its military presence in Syria. Damascus denied Russians were involved in combat, but a Syrian official said the presence of experts had increased in the past year.

Officials in the United States, which is fighting an air war against the Islamist militant group Islamic State in Syria and also opposes Assad's government, have said in recent days that they suspect Russia is reinforcing to aid Assad.

Washington has put pressure on countries nearby to deny their air space to Russian flights, a move Moscow denounced on Wednesday as "international boorishness".

Moscow's only naval base in the Mediterranean is at Tartous on the Syrian coast in territory held by Assad, and keeping it secure would be an important strategic objective for the Kremlin.

Two of the Lebanese sources said the Russians were establishing two bases in Syria, one near the coast and one further inland which would be an operations base.

"The Russians are no longer just advisors," one of them said. "The Russians have decided to join the war against terrorism."


Notice just how Russia is pushing the US to join them in a Putin led anti IS combat operation BUT it really is targeting anyone and or anything that is in fact anti Assad---

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Lavrov tells Kerry of need for consolidated response to terrorists in Syria http://is.gd/C7LG64 @RusEmbUSA pic.twitter.com/krvxRIEiWc

REMEMBER it was said here--the Russian use of the term terrorists means basically anyone or thing that is in fact anti-Assad.

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 05:54 PM
Syria: More photos from inside the Abu al-Duhur military airbase in Southeast #Idlib. (Captured today by al-Nusra) pic.twitter.com/gag4aRtE6j

الجزيرة ✔ @AJArabic
#جبهة_النصرة تسيطر على معظم مطار أبو الظهور العسكري في #إدلب بعد معارك عنيفة مع قوات النظام
http://aja.me/6xdv pic.twitter.com/8d11TX9rC4

Russian transport aircraft flying over #Bulgaria to #Syria, despite the ban. http://bgnews.bulgar-rus.ru/archives/48656 #Russia pic.twitter.com/cCGdzBEhyz

Russia declares a danger area for missile firings off Syrian coast until 17 September pic.twitter.com/1Lj7HDj6O8

So what exactly is Russia firing that requires this distance----

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 06:01 PM
I have intel reports that Russian troops sent to #Syria now took part in the #Ukraine offensive before.
So "semi-regular" hybrid forces.


The main Russian units in the first Ukrainian Russian offense were GRU Spetsnaz and Russia airborne troops from Peskov---

THERE is now a Russian hybrid army inside Syria and Russia is using the same non linear warfare arguments they used in the Ukraine

Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
My two articles on what Reuters just now confirmed. 1: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/01/russia-puts-boots-on-the-ground-in-syria.html … 2: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/05/exposing-russia-s-secret-army-in-syria.html …

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 06:06 PM
I have intel reports that Russian troops sent to #Syria now took part in the #Ukraine offensive before.
So "semi-regular" hybrid forces.


The main Russian units in the first Ukrainian Russian offense were GRU Spetsnaz and Russia airborne troops from Peskov---

THERE is now a Russian hybrid army inside Syria and Russia is using the same non linear warfare arguments they used in the Ukraine

Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
My two articles on what Reuters just now confirmed. 1: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/01/russia-puts-boots-on-the-ground-in-syria.html … 2: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/05/exposing-russia-s-secret-army-in-syria.html …

BUT REMEMBER this is what the Russian Ambassador said today-----

Alexander Yakovenko ✔ @Amb_Yakovenko
Russian military specialists are in Syria to help its army to handle new Russian-made military equipment pic.twitter.com/KkSjZ34omd

Remember--just trainers--NOT combat operations-----is what he stated--another Russian lie----

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 06:27 PM
The Russian buildup in Syria has far surpassed a 'train & equip' mission simply judging by imagery from last 3 weeks

Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
Aaaand... It gets better--> Russia reportedly gets Iran's clearance for Syria flights http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-no-secret-military-specialists-syria-112828419.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=tw …

Russia gets Iran's clearance for Syria-bound flights
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d3172beb72934cc0931646bf61a012de/russia-says-no-secret-it-has-military-specialists-syria …

After recent massive #ISIS convoy coalition forces strike/cut bridges around #Raqqah (some multiple times) pic.twitter.com/mkHf4hhgBx

@mfa_russia: "There are nearly 2,000 Russian citizens fighting in ISIS. We have an interest in helping Syrian army fight terrorists"

.@vicenews gets an exclusive look at the Syrian war's southern front - https://news.vice.com/video/machine-guns-and-barrel-bombs-the-battle-for-syrias-south-part-1 …

Syria : 4 Russian bases
Minat Naval Base 35.607351, 35.765804
Ad Daqqaqah 35.709837, 35.821909
B-A airport 35.414450, 35.948595
Tartus Port

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 07:13 PM
Seems #Russia are threatening, attempting to intimidate Bulgaria on SM.
Fits a pattern of bullying tactics by Russia https://twitter.com/GorseFires/status/641549578131648512 …

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 07:19 PM
Russian humanitarian aid waiting to be flown to Syria. pic.twitter.com/imoZ5WqbyQ

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 07:26 PM
Footage
#Nusra captured several (probably non-operational) AA missiles at #AbuDuhur air base
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kntWaxPr79s … pic.twitter.com/QiktAcimEe

Footage
J.a.#Nusra (90% sure) child soldier with a poem after capture of #AbuDuhur air base.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4W1bqWsx7I … pic.twitter.com/H5iGdkSoIq

Footage
Some of the (broken) Mil Mi-8 and MiG-23, captured by #Nusra in #AbuDuhur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TScRrRJREDE …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/u3ug2QQNNn

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 07:29 PM
This administration IE Obama, Kerry and the entire 700 person NSC has no strategy--OTHER than pull back and disengage--THIS truly does remind me more and more of the Wilsonian FP period in the US. It was dangerous then and it is now just as dangerous as it leads to Putin missing clearly our intentions as he "cannot read the US".

OH by wait.....he does read Obama clearly and concisely---he has come to the decision that Obama is a very weak President and fearful of any confrontation that distracts from the legacy that he trying to establish---a moralistic view of foreign affairs where we are disengaging and allowing others to take the lead.

Remember in the WaPo Ann Applebaum article I posted here--he made a fatal mistake in viewing the Ukraine as a regional issue ie the EU--NOT fully realizing it was a superpower confrontation only occurring in Central Europe just as he viewed Syria as a regional problem.

Well he has made the same exact mistake in Syria---and now if he does not act the creditability of the US in the ME and other locations will be badly damaged for years to come.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mr-putin-makes-moves-in-syria-exploiting-us-inaction/2015/09/08/cd9fbe80-5648-11e5-abe9-27d53f250b11_story.html

Mr. Putin makes moves in Syria, exploiting America’s inaction

By Editorial Board September 8 at 8:08 PM

A US official is comparing Russian buildup in Syria to Crimea http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/09/russian-military-build-up-in-syria-unprecedented-officials-say/ … …

"This is definitely a build-up straight out of Russia's military doctrine," said one official."

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 07:33 PM
Syria #Russia #Latakia communication sites (Hill tops, antenna etc) w/sudden expansion/construction last 10 weeks pic.twitter.com/k3GxeSiXsF

OUTLAW 09
09-09-2015, 08:06 PM
The Al Qaeda-ISIS rivalry is heating up — via @Vocativ http://read.bi/1OcYGDv pic.twitter.com/VMN2sNfUaF

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 05:18 AM
Appears that no one is taking Kerry, the US WH, the US NSC seriously these days---if they really thought Putin would listen to them--I have a very small bridge in the middle of Mongolia to sell them----


Russia sends transport planes into #Syria defying #US request not to increase support for #Assad | @newscomauHQ http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/russia-sends-transport-planes-into-syria-defying-us-request-not-to-increase-support-for-assad/story-fnh81ifq-1227519117302 …

StoptheWar was foaming at mouth when #US wanted to intervene in #Syria...
Now #Russia intervenes and Stop-the-War has not one word to say.

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 05:32 AM
Social media identified this Russian airborne unit yesterday as being the first Russian military unit that invaded into eastern Ukraine in August 2014 and took loses and had 10 captured by the UAF.

Pskov paratroopers now in Syria http://goo.gl/z612if

Putin is serious enough to send the best not conscripts----

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 10:18 AM
Who are these Russian fighters posting pics of themselves in Syria? ��

http://bbc.in/1FxturF


They're brandishing guns, smiling and posing in front of posters showing Presidents Assad and Putin. But who exactly are the Russian soldiers and fighters posting pictures of themselves inside Syria?

The presence of Russian soldiers in Syria is nothing new. As long ago as 1971, Moscow leased a small naval installation in the Mediterranean port city of Tartus. But as talk of further Western strikes against Syrian targets increases, there's been intense speculation that Russia will now go beyond just training President Bashar al-Assad's forces. Indeed some people already think there's evidence that Russian troops are fighting on the ground, although there's no hard evidence of that so far.

Now, a series of striking pictures, including selfies that seem to have been posted by Russian troops in Syria, are being shared on Russian social media - and prompting an intense debate.

The solider selfies are being re-shared by Russian opposition activists, in particular the opposition War In Ukraine (WIU) group, which first came to prominence investigating Russia's involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

After analysing social media posts from Syria, WIU activist Ruslan Leviev summarised his findings in a blog post - from which perhaps the most striking element was photos of Russian soldiers or fighters who, according to their profiles on Facebook and the Russian-language social networking site Vkontakte, have been deployed to Syria.


facebook photo inside syriaImage copyright Facebook

facebook photo inside syriaImage copyright Facebook
What can we tell from these photos? Well, many are geo-tagged - they include location information. Almost all, Leviev says, were taken in or near the Russian naval installation at Tartus. Nothing so far, then, to contradict Moscow's officially stated policy.

But some of the photos are tagged with locations in Syria's huge Homs province, which includes areas which have seen intense fighting. Additionally, the WIU researchers looked at a YouTube video from August apparently showing fighting to the north of Latakia, Syria's main port city which lies to the north of Tartus. They also say they found footage of drones flying in Syrian airspace. Russian words are audible on the battle footage.

"The video we've analyzed prove that it was a Russian armoured personnel carrier [that was involved in the fighting], supplied from a Russian military unit (not straight from the factory) and had a Russian-speaking crew," Leviev told BBC Trending.

But does that actually mean these are Russian soldiers fighting? Actually, not quite. Leviev urges caution. These pictures and videos "wouldn't be enough to conclusively say the crew consists of active Russian servicemen," he says. "They could be Russian mercenaries sent to Syria, among other things. We believe there is not 100% proof that Russian servicemen are taking part in combat operations in Syria.

Instead, he says, what the social media posts do show is a "sharp change of approach", with troops being deployed to Syria for longer stretches rather than simply stopping for resupply on passing ships.

"Before this spring Russia's government had a completely different position. They stressed that the Tartus depot has no military or strategic importance," he says.

Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was "premature" to talk about his country's forces getting involved in direct fighting in Syria. And on Monday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that Russia has never concealed the fact that they supply military equipment to Damascus.

Still, the possibility of increased Russian support for Bashar al-Assad has so worried the West that US Secretary of State John Kerry has expressed his concerns directly to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week. US officials told The New York Times that Russia has despatched an advance military team to Syria, as well as housing units and an air traffic control centre.

The photos have provoked many comments from inside Russia, although not much chatter from a usually vocal pro-Kremlin contingent on social media. "Multipolarity is when in Syria Russian army battles against local militiamen, but fights instead of them in Donbass (in Ukraine)," one user wrote, while another satirical account tweeted: "Syria is ours."

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 10:21 AM
With Idlib out of his grasp, Assad is losing badly. The Russians are NOT in Syria to fight ISIS https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/641781544277946369 …

Syrian Express---military cargo vessel----
Ktachenko heading straight4 Tartous pic.twitter.com/h9U272821s

Exactly. In 2012 Hizb arrived in a critical moment 4Assad, 3 years later Russia joins bcz Hizbollah & Iran militias rnt enuf

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 10:33 AM
Second identified Russian combat unit that has fought as well in the Ukraine—appears Russia is sending only their combat experienced units—not simply trainers---

The 810th Brigade's Marines in the Fields of Donbas: https://en.informnapalm.org/5314-the-810th-brigade-s-marines-in-the-fields-of-donbas/ … via @en_informnapalm pic.twitter.com/xjlL8T1p2G

More Russian lies—as the BTR 82a has never been given to any country outside of the Russian Army----Trying to badly cover the Syrian combat video released that showed the 82a and Russians speaking in the combat video.

Russian media quote sources in defense industry who confirm that Russia currently supplies RPGs, BTR-82a, Ural trucks & firearms to Assad

Stratfor has the first recent satellite image of work on the airport of #Latakia (#Syria) https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/641918522092855296 …

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 11:28 AM
700+ Islamists left #Germany to join #ISIS, 100 were killed. Many are now returning, according to @KASonline report. http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_42469-544-1-30.pdf?150909095551 …

UAV-launched Mikholit? Haven't heard of any Israeli strikes against IS in Sinai @green_lemonnn pic.twitter.com/LJFWks42dK

Satellite imagery reveals #Syria airport in #Latakia is being enlarged after Russian support - @moscow_ghost
pic.twitter.com/7l7Ny2f69o

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 12:14 PM
Notice more evidence of nothing but lip service by DoS Kerry---also further evidence of a lack of any strategic strategy whatsoever in the ME and to some degree confirms moves made by the WH are done so as to not damage the historical legacy.

This again proves we are in a deep Wilsonian withdrawal phase of US foreign policy to the point of hiding behind the Atlantic and Pacific "walls" and letting the rest of the world do what it wants following the mantra "a US President cannot resolve all the world's problems". But wait is that not what one gets a Nobel Peace prize for??

Appears as well that Obama, Kerry and the entire NSC fail to fully understand Putin's three geo political goals which he just expanded to actually four.

1. discredit and damage NATO
2. discredit and damage the EU
3. totally disconnect the Us from Europe
NOW the fourth one--
4. totally disconnect the US from the ME

Michael Weiss

09.10.151:05 AM ET

Putin Sends His Dirty War Forces to Syria


The Kremlin isn’t sending just any troops to prop up the Assad regime. It’s dispatching units that spearheaded Russia’s slow-rolling invasion of Ukraine.

Reuters confirmed Wednesday what The Daily Beast first reported last week—not only have Russian troops been deployed to Syria but they are indeed taking part in active combat operations, although against which of the manifold enemies of the Assad regime remains unclear.

U.S. government sources told the news agency that two tank landing ships, aircraft and naval infantry forces have arrived in Syria in the past 24 hours, with the largest buildup occurring in Latakia, the northwest coastal province—ancestral home of the Assad family—which Islamist rebels have been fiercely contesting of late. Russia, Reuters confirmed, is constructing a new airfield in Latakia, which would represents its second military installation in Syria after its decades-old naval supply base in Tartus, also its only warm-water port since the end of the Soviet Union.

One U.S. intelligence official told The Daily Beast that Moscow likely taken the decision to directly intervene in the four-and-a-half-year civil war following opposition gains, contrary to what Vladimir Putin told reporters last week—that any such talk was “premature.”

“Russia’s military involvement raises a number of concerns, especially because it does not appear to be coordinated with the other countries operating in the area,” the official said. “It is not clear what Russian intends to actually do. However, Russia has generally not exercised restraint in military confrontations.”

A oft-cited fear in the U.S. is that Russia won’t target ISIS, or only ISIS, but also Free Syrian Army rebels who may be working with the CIA or Pentagon.

But what’s most interesting about this news isn’t that Putin has unilaterally decided to rescue his embattled client in Damascus—it’s the kind of Russian troops he’s using to do it. Some of them are from the same units that spearheaded Russia’s year-and-a-half-long dirty war in Ukraine, which may now be in abeyance.

“It is not clear what Russian intends to actually do. However, Russia has generally not exercised restraint in military confrontations.”

An investigation by Ruslan Leviev, a specialist in social-media intelligence, the soldiers are from the 810th Marine Brigade, which is based in Sevastopol, Crimea. The 810th is one of the few units of the Black Sea Fleet known to have played an active role in Russia’s military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula 18 months ago.

The deployment of an elite unit from Crimea, which inaugurated Russia’s standoff with the West, is an intriguing choice. Moscow has spent enormous resources moving troops into Crimea and eastern Ukraine over the past year. Moving even some of them out of the area to a different conflict zone, particularly one outside of Europe, gives the lie that sanctions and diplomatic isolation have forced the Kremlin into compromise; rather, Russia appears ready and willing to take on multiple wars at once.

Doing so requires a delicate balancing of the ledger, however. Moscow’s belligerence in Syria coincided almost exactly with its (relative) enforcement of a year-old and serially violated ceasefire in Ukraine.

Not that the war in the Donbas has stopped completely. On Tuesday, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Monitoring Mission in Ukraine noted that in Schastye, a fulcrum town in Lugansk, one of the two regions occupied by pro-Russian rebels in east Ukraine, “16 explosions assessed as heavy artillery at a location south-west of its position” were recorded. Moreover, there were close to 100 more explosions registered in Donetsk City as “outgoing,” meaning fired by rebels. Oleksandr Turchynov, the secretary for Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, has said that the lull in fighting is a feint by Russia to build up materiel and troops behind the front-line in preparation for another big offensive, which, he said, could occur “at any time,” though Turchynov doesn’t expect this to happen before the three-week U.N. General Assembly in New York, which starts on September 15.

Indeed, as Reuters also reported today, Russia’s Defense Ministry is currently building a 6,000 square-meter military complex to house “3,500 soldiers, warehouses for rockets, artillery weapons, and other munitions” in Valuyki, a village about 15 miles away from Ukraine’s border. Bases such as these, NATO has alleged, are how Russia trains its proxies in Ukraine and keeps them steadily resupplied with tanks and anti-aircraft and radar guidance systems.

Also telling is Putin’s move to call a snap drill of a reported 95,000 troops in the Central Military District—and to mobilize assets for it, including attack helicopters, in the Southern Military District, which abuts Ukraine. Significantly, the exercise includes airborne and air transport forces.

The move comes just before the “Centre-2015” exercise, also to be held in the Central Military District, and also to include tens of thousands of troops. While such tests of readiness are not in themselves unusual in the Russian military, their effect is to give Russia a broad pool of forces able to move immediately, without having to provide any other explanation than, “It’s just an exercise.”

Putin previously called just such an exercise on February 26, 2014, creating a massive and ready military force just four days after he had decided on the annexation of Crimea. At that time, his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said almost exactly, “It’s just an exercise,” when questioned by observers.

Moreover, one of relatively few units from outside the Central Military District to be named as taking part in the drill is the 98th air-assault division based in Ivanovo, east of Moscow. Elements of the 98th are known (PDF) to have fought in Ukraine, and to have sustained significant losses there. It is thus not just highly-trained but battle-hardened. If Putin had decided to reinforce Russia’s combat presence in Syria quickly, the 98th would be a logical choice.

That Putin may be keeping one conflict frozen but oven-ready to start cooking another is also suggested in his diplomatic maneuvering and messaging in the last week. He has reportedly negotiated overflight rights to Syria for Russian military transport planes with Greece and with Iran and called for the creation of an “international coalition against terrorism and extremism,” to include the U.S., knowing that his definition of terrorism and extremism encompasses many American partners in Syria.

Furthermore, building up a garrison in Syria absent any coordination with Washington but coinciding with talk of future coordination is a hallmark of a KGB president looking to get the better of his counterparts: establish a fait accompli, then negotiate the terms of the West’s surrender to it.

Putin knows that the U.S. may be tacitly OK with seeing Russia directly safeguard “state institutions” in Damascus—i.e., the Syrian army and the security services responsible for the bulk of the country’ carnage—especially as ISIS creeps ever closer to the capital. He need only read U.S. newspapers, which cite anonymous White House officials objectively supporting Assad’s longevity, to glean as much. He also knows that calls for Russia to “stop arming and assisting and supporting Bashar al-Assad” can be met with an implied, “Yeah, yeah” because the U.S. will never come close to arming and support Assad’s opposition in a commensurate manner.

Finally, anti-Americanism is now a central plank of Russian foreign policy which depicts Russia as the only nation brave enough to stand up to American hegemony. Rebuffing and outfoxing Washington is a now a national pastime.

It was U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, after all, who went to Sochi last May to cinch Putin’s assistance in reanimating the corpse of a Syria peace process—and ended up criticizing Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko, a putative U.S. ally, while there. Now Putin has returned the executive gratitude by redoubling his support for Assad, and daring the U.S. to stop him. That he has done so quickly, and with the help of the Islamic Republic—another anti-American regime he’s meant to be helping the U.S. constrain—is just the cherry on top.

As ever, the heads-I-win-tails-you-lose conundrum only pays off because the West is so willing to play along. Any number of European leaders have not so subtly indicated that they’d be quite happy to barter for an end to an older Russian war in Europe in exchange for a newer Russian war in the Middle East.

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 12:24 PM
Really good set of Russian social media photos along with the article------

https://en.informnapalm.org/tartus-as-the-russian-syrian-friendship-hub/

Tartus As The Russian-Syrian Friendship Hub



Everyone is talking about the ‘Russian-Syrian friendship escalation’ lately and we would like to explain what it is all about. More and more often the Russian servicemen are seen in Syria; the presence of the Russian weaponry was not a secret, but it seems to scale up nowadays. As it is well-known, Russia has the only base in the Mediterranean Sea – the 720th sustainment center of Russia’s naval forces, located in the Syrian Tartus harbor, where the support point of the Mediterranean squadron is deployed since 1971. However, after the USSR breakup Russians almost stopped any activities there, having just 4 employees and a repair team. It seemed to be a common case – there were plenty of abandoned military bases throughout Russia. But it was a little bit different here due to NATO countries presence and it was Russia’s only stronghold in the Mediterranean Sea – all that resulted in the fact that the base was not closed, and even it was planned to expand.

GRU Major General Yuri Ivanov inspected the Tartus base in the end of 2010. But he never returned home – his body was found near a Turkish village. Was it an incident or ..?

Then the civil war in Syria started in March, 2011. The rapid advancement of Islamists could have endangered the only Russian base in the Mediterranean. Therefore, the medias started to exaggerate rumors about Russia’s assistance the regime of Bashar Assad. Steshin and Kots, the ‘Komsomolskaya Pravda’ reporters, were choosen to calm down the general public. These are the same brave journalists whom we will know by Donbas reports.

No matter how Russian authorities deny their participation in the Syrian conflict, the fact remains that the Russian ships started actively visit Tartus. And here comes ‘Nikolai Filchenkov’ – a landing platform/dock built in 1964-1975. An ‘old tub’, in fact, assigned to Russian Navy with main purpose to deliver cargoes. More information about LDPs in the Russian fleet can be found here (in Russian) – ‘According to experts, most LPDs will be decommissioned in coming 10 years‘.

Of course, the Russians could use civil ships, but they would start sinking sooner or later. Just like general Ivanov. So, it was decided to use warships.

This is ‘Nikolai Filchenkov’ carrying something to Syria in 2012-2013… The media frenzy calmed down, but according to the Russian seamen’s photos ‘Filchenkov’ used to call the port of Tartus on constant basis.

From the article about the maintenance of ‘Nikolai Filchenkov’ and ‘Novorossiysk’ LPDs after the mission completion off the Syrian coast (published by the Russian state news agency ‘RIA Novosti’ in January, 2013): “According to him ‘Nikolai Filchenkov’ had made around 8 thousands sea miles for the last half a year, having passed the Bosporus strait for 10 times and the Dardanelles strait for 8 times”.

Based on the information and comments in VKontakte public group “I served on LDP ‘Nikolai Filchenkov'” (archived): the ship regularly visited Syria starting from summer of 2012. And this year the LPD has been to the Mediterranean Sea for 3 times (in Russian): “The landing platform of the Russian Black Sea Fleet ‘Nikolai Filchenkov’ went to the Mediterranean Sea on its third combat service this year.“. Here are the photos of this ship passing the Bosporus in August, 2015:

VKontakte stores 2 similar pictures of this warship – one made in September, 2015, and signed ‘Back to Syria’ and the other one from December, 2014, signed ‘do you remember our trip with paratroopers?’.

Most of the photos of the Russian seamen in Tartus appeared between 2013 and 2015 – these were the moved marines from Sevastopol (occupied Crimea, Ukraine) and soldiers from Maykop (Republic of Adygea, Russia). The training for the case of… I think such case might happen soon (it looks like this is the photo of that boarding during the Syrian trip in Decemeber, 2013).

Sailors of the following ships are the most frequent photo uploaders: landing ships ‘Nikolai Filchenko’, ‘Caesar Kunikov’ and ‘Novocherkassk’, submarine chaser ‘Severomorsk’, guard ship ‘Yaroslav Mudry’ and so on. As we can see, Tartus is visited by ships of the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North fleets. One of the serviceman published the full training map as for December, 2014:

Speaking in general, out of the Syrian context, we can easily understand the Russian military activities in the Mediterranean. Nevertheless, Russia openly stands for Bashar Assad in this war and the continuous attending Tartus by the Russian warships definitely will not stop the bloodshed in Syria. The role of Russia in this war becomes clear as never before when the Russian military equipment appears on the side of Assad’s army.

Eventually, Russia supplies Assad’s regime with the weaponry and equipment through the Tartus outpost for the last 2-3 years. In such a situation the Middle East will long be restless. Refugee flows will occupy the minds of European bureaucrats and the general unrest in this oil-producing region will spur the price of oil.

The press has long been rumored that Russian military experts are helping to keep the port of Latakia, which is located north of Tartus. However, the real purpose of the Russians – to keep Tartus at all costs. Slowly the rebels are getting closer to Latakia, and when it falls the next target would be the ‘Russian’ Tartus. The city of Homs is located 100 km to the East of Tartus and borders Islamic territories – in the worst case scenario Russians may loose Tartus in few hours.

Russia has decided to get involved in the conflict to uphold their only stronghold in the Mediterranean Sea. The goal is clear, and the Russian marines will have to pay the price. Well, they do not have to get used to die for the imperial ambitions of their leaders.

P.S. Could the former Ukrainian servicemen sided with the Russians in 2014 think that in a year they will have to die at Tartus and Homs in the interests of Putin? However, there is no sense to spare the traitors…

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 12:26 PM
Syria: Head of Jaysh al Fath's Shari'a Council (Abdallah al-Muhaysini) from inside the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib. pic.twitter.com/NUWJzlPJtN

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 12:31 PM
I would not want to talk about Russian soldiers fighting in Syria either after “I stated it is too premature to talk about them to the entire world”.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-kremlin-refuses-to-talk-about-russian-soldiers-reportedly-fighting-in-syria-2015-9?r=US&IR=T#ixzz3lL1qY3SD

The Kremlin refuses to talk about Russian soldiers reportedly fighting in Syria

Reuters

Gabriela Baczynska, Reuters


The Kremlin declined to comment on Thursday on whether Russian troops were fighting in Syria, after sources in Lebanon told Reuters that Russian forces had begun participating in military operations there.

Bashar al-Assad's opponents in the West and among Gulf Arab states fear a considerable Russian military buildup is taking place in Syria to support the Syrian president.

Moscow says all its military assistance to the Syrian army is in line with international law.

"The threat coming from Islamic State is evident... The only force capable of resisting it is the Syrian armed forces," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, reiterating Russia's position that its long-time ally Assad should be part of international efforts to combat the ultra-hardline Islamists.

Peskov said Putin would talk about Syria and Islamic State during his speech to the U.N. General Assembly in New York later this month.

No meeting between Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama in New York has yet been scheduled, he said.

On Wednesday, Russia said it had "military experts" on the ground. Two U.S. officials told Reuters that Moscow had delivered a small number of forces to Syria in recent days. Defence analysts in Moscow say Russian intelligence must also be present on the ground.

Russia's respected Kommersant daily on Thursday said Moscow's advanced BTR-82A armoured personnel carriers were among arms supplied to Damascus.

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 12:55 PM
Lavrov: 'Russian planes are sending to Syria both military equipment in accordance with current contracts and humanitarian aid'

Russian officials make no secret of these arms transfers, saying all deliveries are carried out within the framework of pre-existing agreements. These shipments include Russia's S-300 long range surface-to-air missile systems.

Notice these Russian officials quoted above made no mention of “humanitarian aid” as part of the shipments.

davidbfpo
09-10-2015, 12:59 PM
From my armchair I do wonder what role Russia envisages for its new expanded "boots on the ground" presence in Syria, alongside some form of air cover (fixed wing and armed helicopters).

The civil war is not neat and tidy, so the Russians could be facing ISIS or other groups, some of whom are not Islamist extremists.

Could the presence complicate if not prevent further use of Western air power, including the often mooted, yet to be seen "no fly zones"?

At a minimum could the ground presence enable redeployment of the assad's regime reducing manpower? Around Latakia / Tartus taking on security duties and providing a QRF for example.

If the Assad regime is reduced to holding only those areas where it has local popular support, might the Russian presence be to establish a "protected area" - a new mini-Syria?

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 04:16 PM
From my armchair I do wonder what role Russia envisages for its new expanded "boots on the ground" presence in Syria, alongside some form of air cover (fixed wing and armed helicopters).

The civil war is not neat and tidy, so the Russians could be facing ISIS or other groups, some of whom are not Islamist extremists.

Could the presence complicate if not prevent further use of Western air power, including the often mooted, yet to be seen "no fly zones"?

At a minimum could the ground presence enable redeployment of the assad's regime reducing manpower? Around Latakia / Tartus taking on security duties and providing a QRF for example.

If the Assad regime is reduced to holding only those areas where it has local popular support, might the Russian presence be to establish a "protected area" - a new mini-Syria?

Many say Putin is not a strategist but in fact he is a shrewd one and this move is aimed directly at Obama and designed to reduce US creditability and power in the ME.

He views Obama as a weak President and he has only until 2017 to put his strategy in play--of returning Russia to a superpower and to reduce ie throw the US out of Europe and the ME in order to reestablish his Russian zone of influence.

What we are now seeing is what I would call the UW perfect storm--if we accept that there is a generalized UW strategy of non linear warfare being used by Russia, Iran, China and yes even IS we now see two of those practitioners in Syria driving on the same narrative--destroy US power and creditability in the ME.

We are now with the Ukraine in a phase of international relations that will drive which way the 21st century is headed.

Will the West allow any player that wants to be a superpower to use force and nuclear threats to redesign international norms and laws or will it remain true to the values that it preaches of the rule of law, good governance and transparency that a large number of different civil societies claim they want to emulate since 2011.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.675567

Gili Cohen Sep 10, 2015 5:21 PM

Israeli Defense Source: Hundreds of Iranian Troops in Syria Helping Assad

Israel confirms Russian troops are operating in Syria, and are preparing to deploy Russian military aircraft near Latakia.

A force of hundreds of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been deployed in Syria in order to aid Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime, an Israeli defense source said on Thursday.

LithuaniaEmbassyUK @LTEMBASSYUK

Flexing muscles: #Iskander-M ballistic systems in #Kaliningrad. #Russia’s military presence in Europe grows. pic.twitter.com/mCmZwR5tSU

AND this today is the perfect example of Russia doublespeak--we started the "new Cold War" by annexing Crimea, invading in August 2014 eastern Ukraine and now flooding seasoned combat troops and aircraft along with Iranian IRGC into Syria.

YET it is everyone else's fault not Russia.

From the Russian owned state information war news media Sputnik:

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150910/1026838200.html#ixzz3lM9xCs4a

A new Cold War is totally unacceptable and would be a tragedy for the entire world, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said.


On Thursday, Zakharova held a live chat conversation on BBC. Within an hour and a half, she managed to answer 50-60 questions covering various topics.

"That would be a disaster. There are a number of truly important global issues which must be resolved. They are terrorism, epidemics, refugees, and so on. We don’t have time for Cold Wars," she pointed out.

She also underscored she does not believe that Russia is currently in isolation.

"What is happening today is forcefully imposed rivalry and Russophobia. But blame politicians for that, not ordinary people. Why do they do it? It looks like there are a lot of reasons. And the main reason is stupidity," Zakharova said.

Speaking on the Ukrainian crisis, the spokeswoman assumed that it is a result of the destructive policy by those who seized power in Kiev in 2014.

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 04:19 PM
Embarrassing when a social media open source analyst points out failures by a major company--

Amateur Stratfor analysis. Claim year old Syrian water tower is 'new' 'aircraft control tower' #Eyeroll pic.twitter.com/UQAV4comrt

@finriswolf Seriously? A (Russian) A/C control tower being built as far from a runway as possible & within slingshot range of a public road?

Zabadani: After embarrassing Assad troops & Hizbollah 4almost 3 months, Iran now sending IRGC to the battle field to help Assad take over.

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 05:21 PM
NOTE: Have not seen this confirmed by other social media sources!!!

Body of decapitated Russian soldier arrived in Sevastopol from Syria http://www.sobytiya.info/news/15/55478?_utl_t=fb … pic.twitter.com/acP96QGfSJ


Russian soldiers in #Syria use masks. The guy with beard is their local "guide" http://videopay.net/video/pFaMsFbQEeWJ_JNAGpT1tw?t=6 … pic.twitter.com/zodYRiUchE

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 05:23 PM
Russia condemns #Australia for bombing ISIS in #Syria. At the same time as it sends ships and planes to fight ISIS.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-10/russian-ambassador-condemns-australias-plans-to-raid-syria/6766310 …

Russia'n soldiers shooting with live ammunition in port city of #Tartous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0N4urciJCJ4 … pic.twitter.com/Nl0nacqXQ5

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 06:43 PM
From my armchair I do wonder what role Russia envisages for its new expanded "boots on the ground" presence in Syria, alongside some form of air cover (fixed wing and armed helicopters).

The civil war is not neat and tidy, so the Russians could be facing ISIS or other groups, some of whom are not Islamist extremists.

Could the presence complicate if not prevent further use of Western air power, including the often mooted, yet to be seen "no fly zones"?

At a minimum could the ground presence enable redeployment of the assad's regime reducing manpower? Around Latakia / Tartus taking on security duties and providing a QRF for example.

If the Assad regime is reduced to holding only those areas where it has local popular support, might the Russian presence be to establish a "protected area" - a new mini-Syria?

More on the convergence of the Russian and Iranian non linear warfare---

http://uk.businessinsider.com/israeli-official-irans-military-mastermind-went-to-russia-to-talk-to-putin-saving-assad-2015-9?r=US&IR=T#ixzz3lMWgLZo2

Israeli official: Iran's military mastermind went to Russia to talk to Putin about saving Assad

Natasha Bertrand


The increased presence of Russian and Iranian troops in Syria is the "result of a meeting between [Iranian military mastermind] Soleimani with Russian President Vladimir Putin" and is due to "Assad's crisis," a senior Israeli security official told Israeli outlet YNet news on Thursday.

In August, two unnamed Western intelligence sources told Fox News that Soleimani had violated a travel ban and sanctions to meet with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The official added that cooperation between Russia and Iran has resulted in a significant military buildup in the Latakia province of western Syria.

"Russia ... has teamed up with Iran in an unprecedented attempt to protect the embattled regime of Bashar Assad from falling to rebel groups including the Islamic State," YNet reported.

Soleimani — a major general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and commander of the powerful Quds force — has reportedly sent hundreds of ground soldiers into Syria over the past few days.

Meanwhile, Russian drones and fighter planes have been surveilling non-ISIS rebels in the country's north.

Russian armored-personnel carriers with Russian-speaking troops have also apparently been involved in fighting, and Russia has set up an air-traffic-control tower and brought housing units for up to 1,000 personnel to Latakia in the country's west. Two tank-landing ships and additional aircraft have arrived, Reuters reported.

"It's hard to forecast whether Russia's presence will decide the fate of Syria, but it will lengthen the fighting and bloodletting for at least another year because ISIS won't give up," the Israeli source told YNet.

Under Soleimani's purview, has long since taken over Assad's fight in crucial parts of Syria.

In May, Soleimani traveled to Syria to "organize the entry of Iranian officials to supervise and aid" Iranian proxy forces in coastal Syria, according to Now Lebanon.

One month later, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) commander told the London-based Al-Quds al-Arabi that “the regime has handed over the operations room to Iranian officers and leadership.”

“Syrian officers, among them Alawites, have become secondary members, whose tasks can sometimes be reduced to handing out tea and coffee," he added.

Al Qaeda-linked rebels took full control of the Idlib province last week, which Iran-backed militias had failed to secure during a counterattack in June. Idlib borders Latakia and is just the second province no longer under government control (along with ISIS-controlled Raqqa).

Now, it appears that Iran is upping the ante in coordination with Russia.

"Assad has lost significant territory over the past months; Putin is not about to tolerate his ouster," geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider in an email.

Iran is not about to tolerate it, either — Iran is making "an effective play for regional hegemony," Michael Gerson of the Washington Post has written, and needs Assad to remain in power to maintain its bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Russia, too, has its own interests to look after: control over its naval base at Tartus is at stake, and along with it Putin's ability to project power into the Mediterranean.

As a result, Russia's incursion into Syria has less to do with fighting ISIS and more to do with countering Western actions that have bolstered rebel forces in the north and threaten to weaken Assad further.

"If the West succeeds in turning the tide of the war while Assad is vulnerable, the political outcomes in Syria are more likely to be dictated by the US," Bremmer said. "Which means Putin needs to bolster Assad now."

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 06:49 PM
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4699809,00.html

Iranian troops join Russians in Syria fighting

Israeli security sources claim Quds Force sending hundreds of elite troops in unprecedented cooperation with Russia to save embattled Syrian regime.

Yoav Zitun

Published: 09.10.15, 18:04 / Israel News


Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, has sent hundreds of ground soldiers into Syria in the past few days apparently in cooperation with Russia's President Vladimir Putin, said a senior Israeli security official Thursday.

Russia has also recently deployed military assets into Syria and according to the Israeli source, has teamed up with Iran in an unprecedented attempt to protect the embattled regime of Bashar Assad from falling to rebel groups including the Islamic State.

The Israeli source said that Iran's increased military involvement in Syria was "due to Assad's crisis and under Russian-Iranian cooperation as a result of a meeting between Soleimani with Russian President Vladimir Putin," said the Israeli source.

The only Iranian force that has operated in Syria so far has been the Basij militia, a paramilitary organization with a relatively small number of fighters.

The security official said that Israel has little to worry about Russia's military activity in Syria saying that it is "not directed at Israel.

"We have dialogue with Russia and we aren't in the middle of the Cold War," continued the source. "We have open channels with the Russians."


Israeli security leaders assess that Assad currently controls just 25-30 percent of Syria, mainly around the country's shoreline where critical supplies are shipped into ports.

"It's hard to forecast whether Russia's presence will decide the fate of Syria, but it will lengthen the fighting and bloodletting for at least another year because ISIS won't give up," said the Israeli source.

Along Israel's border with Syria in the Golan Heights, Assad maintains just two enclaves at Quneitra and another smaller area further north, centered around Syrian-Druze villages that look to the regime for protection.

Rebels used bad weather caused by a massive sandstorm across the Middle East in the last few days to gain control of a government-controlled air field near the northern city of Idlib.

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 06:50 PM
Now Assadists are kicking in their own version of informational warfare----

The agency tht helped Jews & Al Qaeda create the sandstrm -acc 2 Assadists- is called HAARP or High Frequency Active Auroral Research Progrm

To help Zionist and Al Qaeda take over the Abu Al Duhur mil base and other Assad POIs pic.twitter.com/9xZfjJqPjD

I thought this was one nutjob until I saw several pro Assad pages post it: Assadists believe the sandstorm in Syria was caused By America..

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 06:51 PM
Russia Flies Around #NATO Airspace To Supply Weapons To #Syria

http://www.defenseworld.net/news/14016/Russia_Flies_Around_NATO_Airspace_To_Supply_Weapon s_To_Syria__Debka_File#.VfFu0mZXfCQ … pic.twitter.com/N7LiQXYVqz

"Russia blocks a UN arms embargo vs Syria's Assad since 4 yrs, hence can call its actions "legal".
http://twitter.com/mfa_russia/sta …"v

Syrian Express is on the move again—another ship headed to Syria----

Phnom Penh registered livestock carrier Rabunion20 transits southbound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria pic.twitter.com/D62HmnelDg

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 07:23 PM
From my armchair I do wonder what role Russia envisages for its new expanded "boots on the ground" presence in Syria, alongside some form of air cover (fixed wing and armed helicopters).

The civil war is not neat and tidy, so the Russians could be facing ISIS or other groups, some of whom are not Islamist extremists.

Could the presence complicate if not prevent further use of Western air power, including the often mooted, yet to be seen "no fly zones"?

At a minimum could the ground presence enable redeployment of the assad's regime reducing manpower? Around Latakia / Tartus taking on security duties and providing a QRF for example.

If the Assad regime is reduced to holding only those areas where it has local popular support, might the Russian presence be to establish a "protected area" - a new mini-Syria?

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.de/2015/09/putin-opening-second-and-different.html

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Putin Opening ‘Second’ and Different ‘Front’ against the West in Syria, Felshtinsky Says

Paul Goble


Staunton, September 10 – With the dispatch of Russian troops to Syria, Vladimir Putin has opened ‘a second front’ against the West, one that is very different in its methods and intentions than the first one in Ukraine that he continues to pursue, according to Russian-American historian Yury Felshtinsky.

In Ukraine, Putin has pursued “a ‘hybrid’ battle only in the sense that he has been pursuing a double goals: first, to seize Ukraine and start the restoration of ‘a Soviet Union’ or ‘a Russian Empire’ … and second, to show the entire world that Russia has the right to territorial conquests … beyond the current Russian borders” (apostrophe.com.ua/article/world/ex-ussr/2015-09-10/ne-tolko-ukraina-zachem-putin-otkryivaet-vtoroy-front-v-sirii/2238).

In Syria, on the other hand, Felshtinsky continues, Russia’s actions are not “’hybrid’” in any sense. Rather, they are “a continuation of the old Soviet policy which on the whole never changed” and that may be better described as “schizophrenic,” that is, one that involved as in the case of Israel supporting one country and then selling arms to that country’s enemies.

“Russian policy toward Syria and Russian military actions in Syria … serve [those] same goals,” he argues. “It is important to Putin to show Europe and the US that Russia has the right to use its forces far beyond its borders if the interests of the state require this.” Putin thus considers that he is “acting ‘exactly the same’ as the US has in Iraq.

By sending troops to Syria, “Putin wants to show the world” that Russia has “parity” relations with the US. At his upcoming speech at the United Nations, Felshtinsky suggests, the Russian leader’s central message is thus going to be that “Russia is permitted to do what the US is permitted to do.”

In that speech, the Russian-American analyst says, “Putin will declare to the entire world that the rules of the game have changed and that Russia must be taken into account because it has an army and nuclear weapon and intends to use in the resolution of its foreign policy tasks both the first and the second.”

The Russian army, “the first foreign policy instrument,” has been used for some time: in Chechnya, in Transdniestria, in Georgia, in Ukraine and now in Syria. The second, nuclear weapons, “remains in reserve.” Putin and his entourage will constantly remind the world of what could happen “if they push a rat into a corner.’”

All this means, the analyst says, that “the entire world now is concerned with yet another delicate mission: how to get the rat out of the corner in which he has gone of his own volition and does not want to leave although all the doors are open.”

“The optimists hope that Putin will publicly declare at the UN about his coming out of the corner,” Felshtinsky says, adding that he personally is not one of them and does not expect anything good.”

The reason is simple: “there are already consequences from the conduct of the military campaign in Syria, and they are very serious” because “the entire world considers these consequences catastrophic but Putin views them as positive.”

In the course of a very brief time, “Russia has been transformed from a peaceful partner into a militant opponent,” whose economy is no longer linked to the work market system but is suffering because of the falling prices for oil.

“Putin,” Felshtinsky argues, “consider this as the price for a new policy of Russia. Having devalued the ruble, he has made all the citizens of the Russian Federation into fellow participants of his foreign policy operations,” even though they have little or no influence on his decisions and aren’t about going into the square to “demand the overthrow of the Putin regime.”

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 07:25 PM
BBC Breaking News ✔ @BBCBreaking
BBC sees footage of Syrian civilians attacked by chemical weapons, over a year after last declared weapons removed http://bbc.in/1XQ6b7K

Death by Chemical weapons Assad's genocide of a nation continues http://dld.bz/dJGnr pic.twitter.com/OKS0MAoOoN

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 07:26 PM
Vid shows a large convoy of Ahrār ash-Shām tanks heading towards the #Syria|n regime-held towns of Fu'a and #Kefraya>

More: Also a large convoy of missile launchers and anti-aircraft weapons heading towards Fu'a and #Kefraya, #Idlib.

Syria: Large convoy of Ahrār ash-Shām (JaF) fighters heading towards the regime-held towns of Fu'a and #Kefraya. pic.twitter.com/P24m3UyiPl

OUTLAW 09
09-10-2015, 07:38 PM
Hey world, FYI. In the space of 24 hours #Russia has questioned Bulgaria's sovereignty & threatened Sweden militarily

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 05:25 AM
Humor about Russians in Syrian—“we are here to protect Syrian Russians”
Cartoon http://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/cartoon/cartoon-511-397645.html … pic.twitter.com/lfqKEOQqCZ

Iranian troops join Russians in Syria fighting - Israel News, Ynetnews http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4699809,00.html …

Media outlet Vice always shows up when things are in progress—where were they in the last four years in Syria???
Vice News finally in #Syria filming rebels who fight against #Assad regime there https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHJPXWglnpU …

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 09:39 AM
Russia appears ready and willing to take on multiple wars at once." http://read.bi/1Lm05mf pic.twitter.com/TGsAwEchZI

Now that many witnesses are dead, evidence is cold, bodies are buried, and Russian troops make Assad bomb-proof https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/642254029159010304 …

UN Okays Probe Into Syria Gas Attack After #Russia Drops Objections http://tmt-go.ru/529968 #news

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 10:42 AM
NOTE: Have not seen this confirmed by other social media sources!!!

Body of decapitated Russian soldier arrived in Sevastopol from Syria http://www.sobytiya.info/news/15/55478?_utl_t=fb … pic.twitter.com/acP96QGfSJ



APPEARS the report of a potential beheaded Russian soldier might have in fact been correct--local Crimea Russian newspaper is now reporting the return of 10 caskets with dead Russian troops----interesting as this report ties into the previous combat video taken near Homs.

Also if beheaded--this indicates to me that Syrian anti Assad forces were sending a clear message to Putin and his military of yes you can send combat veterans of the Ukraine but fighting here in Syria is not fighting in the Ukraine where you will not be beheaded if captured, wounded or killed.

Will be interesting to see if the Russian military and Putin got the message????
10 caskets with bodies of Russian army solders arrived from #Syria to Sevastopol - local news reports #Crimea http://www.sobytiya.info/news/15/55478

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 11:33 AM
Russian officials lie about everything, even when saying where their ships are heading https://twitter.com/bbcdaniels/status/642010330542047236 …

BREAKING
#Peshmarga forces, supported by coalition airstrikes, retake 12 villages from ISIS in the Daquq area in south Kirkuk, this morning

Idiocy: UKIP MEP claims "IS controls over half of" #Syria and "Assad the rest" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11851339/plan-for-Syria-keep-Assad-in-power-deploy-ground-troops-and-send-back-the-refugees.html …

UK neo rightist does not seem to know his facts--currently Assad only controls 15% of the Syria land mass---namely his own region and the coastal strip.

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 02:06 PM
Slogan t-shirt at #GUM shopping mall, #Moscow: “Russians don’t need visas”. #paratroopers pic.twitter.com/ewpH6nHCzs

Hezbollah's TV's Amro Nassef: Syrian refugees & displaced are scum/bastards. I have no sympathy 4 refugees" pic.twitter.com/fNOyTQfxdx
Stated by one of the terrorist groups in Syria net to IS.

#Iraq: Shia terrorist group claims last week's kidnapping of 18 workers from #Turkey in #Baghdad & makes 4 demands. pic.twitter.com/ZIsy47whdL

Re-up: Defense Intelligence chief says Iraq and Syria may not survive as states http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:ad0d463f16f24879aae1febe2a3ce6 09 …

Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms
How will the White House respond when Russia starts bombing U.S.-backed Syrian rebels?

One village in Lebanon is hosting more Syrian refugees than the entire United States. Imagine that. By @_RichardHall http://www.globalpost.com/article/6646784/2015/09/10/little-village-mountains-lebanon-hosting-more-syrian-refugees-us …

Iraq Abu Bakr Turkmeni killed in an airstrike by the coalition targeted his car on the road to Al-Asheq village in #Talafar #ISIS #ISIL

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 04:05 PM
Why only war refugees from Syria deserve, as they do, our help and solidarity, and those from Ukraine do not ? Why such a double standard ?

NATO intell chief Adm. Brett Heimbigner: "Are we keeping up with threats?...Absolutely not" http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-caught-surprised-by-russia-s-move-into-syria … pic.twitter.com/0nSIF6VrAv

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 04:08 PM
For those that think Putin does not have a strategy and is driving on that strategy both in the Ukraine and Syria--AND it is fully aimed at the US and NATO.

http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/put...han-you-think/
Putin’s Strategy is Far Better than You Think

New Russian threat against NATO and especially the US—notice how Putin applies pressure on Obama who he fully understands is reluctant to use hard power.

Maxim Tucker @MaxRTucker
#Russia to US: Talk to us in #Syria or risk 'unintended incidents'. Ie Russian air defences shooting down NATO planes http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0RB0ZL20150911?irpc=932 …

AND as always-in the background when Putin threatens Obama--the Russian nuclear threat.

#Russia sends world’s largest submarine, with 200 #nukes, to #Syria
http://osnetdaily.com/2015/09/russia-sends-worlds-largest-submarine-with... … …

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 04:56 PM
WHY would the Russians send their most advanced AD systems which BTW are also in the Ukraine WHEN IS has not a single aircraft or drone capable of firing a single missile.

Putin claims to be wanting to led a war against the IS BUT this AD system is vast overkill for a non IS threat BUT it is effective at threatening US/NATO aircraft.

Russia is sending advanced air defences to Syria http://read.bi/1ESpaZ8 pic.twitter.com/SZPtNJv95Y

Results of one year's worth of US/Allied bombing----

ISIL has been able to thrive in areas with a majority Arab Sunni population but has failed to take hold in areas where Sunni Arabs are the minority or where effective rival ground forces could oppose them. … Taken in this light, ISIL appears to have essentially traded holdings in Kurdistan and near Baghdad that were hard for it to maintain for holdings in central Syria that will be much easier for it to maintain.

This month, Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the fight against ISIS “tactically stalemated” with no “dramatic gains on either side,” predicting it would take “a decade or more to resolve” the problems that led to ISIS’s rise. This is the difference a year made

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 05:42 PM
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We need to put aside the idea of regime change in #Syria, since prior attempts have led to an unprecedented spike in terrorism

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We urge the coalition members to start cooperating with the Syrian Government. Several European FMs have supported this view

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We have long insisted on the need to coordinate all the parties involved, including the Syrian Government, in fighting ISIS

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Mr Kerry told me that the US is interested in restoring direct communication between defence authorities. If so, we are ready

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We support the Syrian Government’s fight against ISIS, which should not be allowed to become a state

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: US-led coalition was formed unilaterally, without consulting the #UNSC or coordinating the move with a key country like #Syria

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Russian military experts are in #Syria to help with maintenance of Russian equipment, to train the Syrian army to use the hardware

Anyone see the Russian strategy in progress?????

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 05:47 PM
How ISIS Territory Has Changed Since the U.S. Bombing Campaign Began http://bit.ly/1K15zCV pic.twitter.com/tZ14FT1ZKh

Another Syrian Express vessel makes it to Syria---
Malk M aka Wilson Fjord left Novorossiysk, Russia on 5th September. Just arrived Latakia, Syria. pic.twitter.com/Q05IRj3GyC

Iraq #Syra : #ISIS have shown themselves very capable of quickly repairing bomb damaged infrastructure like bridges, electric grid etc,

The E.U., the U.S. and Russia are clarifying their strategies for peace in #Syria. pic.twitter.com/DjIA5E82D3

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 06:43 PM
For those that think Putin does not have a strategy and is driving on that strategy both in the Ukraine and Syria--AND it is fully aimed at the US and NATO.

http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/put...han-you-think/
Putin’s Strategy is Far Better than You Think

New Russian threat against NATO and especially the US—notice how Putin applies pressure on Obama who he fully understands is reluctant to use hard power.

Maxim Tucker @MaxRTucker
#Russia to US: Talk to us in #Syria or risk 'unintended incidents'. Ie Russian air defences shooting down NATO planes http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0RB0ZL20150911?irpc=932 …

AND as always-in the background when Putin threatens Obama--the Russian nuclear threat.

#Russia sends world’s largest submarine, with 200 #nukes, to #Syria
http://osnetdaily.com/2015/09/russia-sends-worlds-largest-submarine-with... … …

Humor that fits----

We run the risk in Syria of again finding out what western ATMs do to Russian APCs.

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 07:00 PM
UPDATE #Sinai Daesh published a picture report in accordance to the statement they released earlier today! pic.twitter.com/hrDTbHavwA

They utilized an AT-14 Spriggan (Kornet) ATGM to knock out the Egyptian M-60MBT pic.twitter.com/vLWvrEOmFm

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 07:01 PM
Two Russian Airforce An-124 heavy cargo planes from Moscow likely heading to Syria now

pic.twitter.com/KmocDelyBl

A second AN-124 takes off from Chkalovskiy...first one dropped off the screen for now. pic.twitter.com/0LTPo0vVWA

RuAF An-124 82040 reporting: entering Iraqi airspace prohibited, returning to departure airfield.
https://twitter.com/Alexfly35/status/642413110846976001 …

Apparently the US haven't lost all their influence in Bagdad yet...

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 07:30 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2015/09/11/syrians-reportedly-hit-with-poison-gas.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

14 minutes ago

Syrians Reportedly Hit With Poison Gas


Poison gas was reportedly used on civilians in Deir Ezzor, Syria on Friday night, according to the Local Coordination Committee, a Syrian-opposition linked monitor of the conflict. "A massive fleeing taking place in Junena village after the residents reported smelling weird odors..." the group wrote on Facebook. This report has not been confirmed, but it follows recent reports of poison-gas attacks using mustard and chlorine agents blamed both on ISIS and Bashar al-Assad's military.

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 07:32 PM
Russia forces have taken over management of Damascus Int. airport pic.twitter.com/JU0k2St2Vm http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2015/11-september-russia-forces-have-taken-over-management-of …

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 07:43 PM
Syria: Intense bombing in Damascus results in one of the bloodiest months since conflict began http://ln.is/www.msf.org.uk/artic/UvUyu …

OUTLAW 09
09-11-2015, 08:04 PM
Two Russian Airforce An-124 heavy cargo planes from Moscow likely heading to Syria now

pic.twitter.com/KmocDelyBl

A second AN-124 takes off from Chkalovskiy...first one dropped off the screen for now. pic.twitter.com/0LTPo0vVWA

RuAF An-124 82040 reporting: entering Iraqi airspace prohibited, returning to departure airfield.
https://twitter.com/Alexfly35/status/642413110846976001 …

Apparently the US haven't lost all their influence in Bagdad yet...


Russia military supply flights to #Syria may have to drop off in Iran 4 transfer to #Iran or #Syrian a/c for #Iraq overflight now

OUTLAW 09
09-12-2015, 05:15 AM
Russia's new air base in Syria has Obama scrambling for a plan, reports @joshrogin http://bv.ms/1JZRtnu via @BV

Fmr #Ukraine Navy Comm Berezovsky who changed sides in #Crimea to #Russia now in #Syria https://twitter.com/Hlopak_/status/642053220555169792 … pic.twitter.com/8AowQzxKNO

Putin’s ideologue is now focusing on Syria---
Dugin's on to Syria now... https://twitter.com/A_G_Dugin/status/642560845227106304 …

OUTLAW 09
09-12-2015, 07:42 AM
For those SWJ readers not so aware of the effects of the Assad barrel bombs--a technique passed to them from the Iranian IRGC---this video is a good lecture on them--just two caused this damage--in built up areas and highrises the results are far more deadly.

Devastation in Taman'a village in #Ghab plain after two TNT barrel attacks.
https://youtu.be/zYb3lJfNU3U

Assad barrel bombings have been going on now for over two years and have been mixed lately with chlorine gas--which the US only knows to well that it is being used BUT failed to enforce the Obama "red line" in the sand on the use of chemical weapons on civilians and civilian targets.

Why is that???

OUTLAW 09
09-12-2015, 05:32 PM
Russia alerts of Syria military exercises, including "rocket test firings" between September 8 and 15.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2015/09/11/Russia-alerts-Cyprus-of-Syria-military-exercises.html …

More than 60 photos taken by @halabnews_ph at Abu Duhour air base. #Idlib #Syria
https://www.facebook.com/halabnews.ph/timeline/story?ut=43&wstart=0&wend=1443682799&hash=8721644407394888383&pagefilter=3 … pic.twitter.com/z5rBx1NXh0

Another An-124 active over Caspian, this one identified as Russian Air Force pic.twitter.com/vvNYR80QJI