Possible Chemical Attack in Iraq

[Bill Moore]

It is unclear if this is an accident or a deliberate attack, but I would lean towards deliberate. Once the dust settles we'll see exactly what this was and perhaps what it means. There are a number of potential industrial chemicals such as chlorine that terrorists can use a weapon. Chlorine is one chemical that has been used ineffectively several times by several groups. These guys got it right, or they just got lucky.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/02/20/iraq.main/index.html


BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- A cloud of deadly toxic gas engulfed an Iraqi town Tuesday, killing six people and leaving dozens of others choking on fumes after a tanker carrying chlorine exploded outside a restaurant.

An Iraqi Interior Ministry official said the blast in the town of Taji, 12 miles (20 km) north of Baghdad, was caused by a bomb on board the tanker.

There were contrasting figures on the casualty toll. Baghdad security plan spokesman Gen. Qassim Atta told state-run al-Iraqiya TV that five people died in the blast and 148 were poisoned by the gas.

[tequila]

This vaguely reminded me of this story (http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1229/p02s01-usju.html) from back in 2003.

[Bill Moore]

The only parallel I see is both are chemical weapons, and while the press sensationalized the lethality of this bomb (pardon me for being a doubting Thomas that this bomb could have killed thousands), the reality is most of these weapons fail, which is why we haven't seen too many successful attacks outside of the one in Iraq recently and of course the infamous subway attack in Tokyo (more a failure than success).

I think the USG ignored the story because they would have presented a problem they don't have an answer for. None the less it sounds like many law enforcement agencies and officers missed a well deserved public thanks for this one.

I'm going to also post your link in the discussion about gangs. Great post, much thanks, Bill

[120mm]

The problem with WMD, is that the .gov has been hysterically overstating the effects of WMD for so long in order to get people to take it seriously, that even official agencies believe their own bull####.

Chemical weapons are not used very often, because they are generally not very useful. Those that are extremely lethal are extremely fragile and have to be applied directly into the area you want to affect (such as the Tokyo subway). The ones that are not fragile are not very lethal, and you have to be pretty dumb to get "slimed" by them.

[Bill Moore]

120mm's statements are correct, but there are specific conditions and freak circumstances (although rare) where chemical attacks and accidents have had a WMD effect.

Estimated 5,000 killed and several thousand wounded in the Halabja chemical attack (1988)

Bhopal, India: 1983 approximately 3,000 killed, and several thousand injured/sick after industrial chemical leak.

[Stan]

We have confiscated French files complete with jpegs on eight various chemical IEDs produced for al-Qaida trainees. I have already translated most of them and will send them to anybody interested. They are large files.

Number 6 is exactly what recently ocurred and 120 is dead on the money. Chlorine based IEDs are stable, product easy to procure and even easier to employ, but in order to affect enough people, it's going to be huge and you will have more than enough time as a trained soldier to get out of harm's way or simple dawn your gas mask. The average adult male would need to receive a dose of 19000mg/m3/min. in order for the situation to become fatal.

That's a Sierra load of chlorine folks !

120 said it in plain terms:

The ones that are not fragile are not very lethal, and you have to be pretty dumb to get "slimed" by them.

The smaller more lethal bio or chemical IEDs have a max effective range of 2 to 4 meters and disperse too quickly to produce desired casualties. al-Qaida used French and Russian practice grenades to accomplish the job.

Regards, Stan

[tequila]

According to NYTIMES, this is the third such attack (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/21/world/middleeast/21cnd-baghdad.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print)in the last month. A new tactic?


A pickup truck carrying canisters of the gas, which burns the skin and can be fatal after only a few concentrated breaths, exploded near a diesel-fuel station in southwestern Baghdad, killing at least 5 people and sending another 75 to hospitals, wheezing and coughing, for treatment, Interior Ministry and medical officials said.

On Tuesday, a tanker truck filled with chlorine exploded north of Baghdad, killing 9 people and wounding 148, including 42 women and 52 children.

At least one other attack with chlorine occurred on Jan. 28 in the Sunni-dominated province of Anbar, according to American military statements. Sixteen people died after a dump truck with explosives and a chlorine tank blew up in Ramadi.

The attacks had the potential to be much deadlier, but seem to have been poorly executed, burning much of the chemical agent rather than spreading it. Still, Iraqi and American officials condemned the attacks as an effort to bring a new level of fear and havoc to Iraq as a new security plan for Baghdad takes shape.

[Bill Moore]

No argument on the amount of chlorine required for a lethal doze, but at the risk of sounding flippant, practice makes perfect, and our foes are obviously practicing. Now that they got the formula correct after several false starts, it is relatively simple manner of increasing the size, and since this is readily available information I'll go ahead and say it. Using a larger such device in a crowded area where a rapid escape routes are limited (imagine more than one device to hit folks on the escape route) in the right climatic conditions will produce a much larger number of casualties, so instead of wishing a problem away, our guys need to be leaning forward with the appropriate defensive plans. The intentions of the terrorists are quite clear.


http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/02/21/iraq.main/index.html


Toxic gas kills 2
Toxic gas killed Iraqi civilians for the second time in two days.

A car bomb laced with poisonous gas exploded near a hospital in southwestern Baghdad's Bayaa neighborhood Wednesday, killing two civilians and wounding seven others.

Twenty-three other civilians were hospitalized with respiratory problems caused from the noxious gases.

[Jedburgh]

Along these lines, for those with an interest, I recommend attending the one day seminar Chemical Agents of Opportunity for Terrorism: The Medical and Psychological Consequences of Toxic Industrial Chemicals (TICs) and Toxic Industrial Materials (TIMs) (http://www.trainex.org/offeringslist.cfm?courseid=275&all=yes). Although there isn't one scheduled at the moment, check the TrainEx website (http://www.trainex.org/) for updates.

Although the content is generally geared for responders, I attended an earlier version almost two years ago, and there was a lot of spirited professional discussion on likely methods of compromise of the materials and likely dissemination methods (often vs the "ideal" dissemination scenario). Anyone who already has a solid baseline of knowledge and experience with threat TTPs will certainly get a lot out of it. Time well spent.

[120mm]

As chemical attacks are supposedly antithethical to Islamic Law, will this have a "spring-back" effect? But then, Jihad against Christians and Jews is also prohibited by the Q'uran, but that hasn't stopped them, yet....

[tequila]

Suicide is expressly forbidden, but fanatics generally find whatever they want to in holy texts, regardless of what is actually written.

[Anlaochfhile]

According to NYTIMES, this is the third such attack (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/21/world/middleeast/21cnd-baghdad.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print)in the last month. A new tactic?

I don't know that I'd call it a new tactic, although it is certainly an emerging trend. I've gotten a couple of briefs noting previous attempts. My guess is that the 'dirty' nature of the previous attempts didn't make the news because they were even more unsuccessful than these.

Effective dispersal is still the big problem that they have to overcome.

[Stan]

Thanks for the post, Anlaochfhile !


It was at least the third truck bomb in a month to employ chlorine, a greenish gas also used in World War I, which burns the skin and can be fatal after only a few concentrated breaths. The bomb killed at least two people and injured 32 others, police and medical officials said.

This is a sad case, we all know how easy it is to obtain chlorine, even at the local supermarket. They needed more. We should be looking at this, it's typical:

http://www.eurochlor.org/europeanchlorineindustry


More than 85% of all pharmaceuticals and more than half the products of the chemical industry depend on chlorine chemistry. These products are used in most industrial and economic sectors. European chlorine producers manufacture around 10 million tonnes of virgin chlorine each year. The capacity for the region is currently about 12 million tonnes. More than a third is recycled - mainly as hydrochloric acid - and re-used within the production plants. Fifty-five percent of Europe's overall chemical production is directly or indirectly dependent on chlorine.

[Jedburgh]

Here in the US, it is rail shipments of chlorine (http://pubs.acs.org/cen/news/83/i03/8303notw1.html) that have been looked at closely. Back in '05, DC banned such shipments from coming any closer than 2.2 miles to the nation's capital. However, CSX immediately sued the city, and the ban has been put on hold until the legal wrangling is over. There are a few other cities that have enacted similar bans, and both city goverments and the cargo rail industry and watching for the final fall-out of this case.

A truly effective ban is problematic because not only do railways snake through major metropolitan areas, but many of those chlorine shipments are destined for those areas.

Luckily, most people here in the US do not realize how bad rail security really is. And I'm not just talking about the long lines of track transiting open country - yard security is a huge problem as well. Because of high-profile incidents that have occurred world-wide, it is understandable that the bulk of rail security resources have been funneled towards the passenger rail sector. However, cargo rail is huge, inviting target that offers a path for a variety of large devices into most of our major cities. Drug and people smugglers, homeless vagrants, and the various companies' railroad police themselves are all very aware of the vulnerabilities. But it is nowhere near being addressed.

[Robal2pl]

The same problem is in other coutries. For example , in 2005 polish military magazine "Komandos" published article about possibe terroristic strike in Wroclaw [I study there]. In this scenario, RPG-7 would be fired to train carring chlorine. 180 tons of chlorine would cause death of about 40.000 people.
It is also possible that chemical plants can be attacked to achieve similar effect but, trains are easier targets.

[Sarajevo071]

Suicide is expressly forbidden, but fanatics generally find whatever they want to in holy texts, regardless of what is actually written.

Actually, there is difference in opinions in jihadi world on that one. It’s not that clear cut. There are many fatwas out here explaining and justifying “martyr operations”.

[Stan]

Hey Sarajevo !
"Dealing subtle points of interpretation of the fiqh, as well as various mundane matters."

That's like opening Pandoras Box and leaving it that way. What a judicial system.

[tequila]

Actually, there is difference in opinions in jihadi world on that one. It’s not that clear cut. There are many fatwas out here explaining and justifying “martyr operations”.

Sarajevo, I'm well aware. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who I would certainly not characterize as a jihadi, propagates a well-worn version on his website here (http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?pagename=IslamOnline-English-Ask_Scholar/FatwaE/FatwaE&cid=1119503543974).

[Sarajevo071]

I am not sure but I think everything started with war in Chechnya and they need for such operations and religious justifications. I believe that came to them with Arab (wahabi, salafi) volunteers (same like in Afghanistan or even in Iraq now). Majority of Sunnis are not like that and they have big issues with sacrificing life that way or attacking civilians. At least that was before.

But then again, I could be wrong here.

[Sarajevo071]

Sarajevo, I'm well aware. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who I would certainly not characterize as a jihadi, propagates a well-worn version on his website here (http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?pagename=IslamOnline-English-Ask_Scholar/FatwaE/FatwaE&cid=1119503543974).

And then this:

Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi Condemns Attacks Against Civilians: Forbidden in Islam - here (http://www.islamonline.net/English/News/2001-09/13/article25.shtml)

[tequila]

That's part of why I wouldn't call the old rat a jihadi. He's a bit like the Sunni version of Pat Robertson, except in our discourse Robertson is a nutbag right winger, while in the Sunni Islamist context Qaradawi is a liberalizing influence.

[Sarajevo071]

Sure. I understand you.

[Bill Moore]

In a previous fatwa OBL already authorized/justified the use of chemical weapons, so the religious debate won't get us too far. I realize OBL is authorized to issue fatwas in traditional Islam, but none the less he has a following, and those followers will use his fatwa to justify the use of chemical weapons.

If the Muslim community could find a way to discredit OBL and his fatwa's, then we could start this debate again, but right now it sounds like we're trying to wish a potential problem away?

[Sarajevo071]

He, personally, doesn’t have religious (spiritual and scholarly) standing to do that. That’s reason he have some Islamic scholars on his side to help him, advice him and write fatwa for him… You must understand that every scholar can say or write this or that, but it is up to people to accept or not. Therefore, there are many Islamic scholars who refute him and “his” fatwas.

I know that he did sign his name under some fatwa but truth is, Islamic scholars are saying for years that he doesn’t have credibility to issue any. Justifications for use of WMD weapons (IF they have any for some massive strike), came not from him but from some other scholars that he is leaning for religious advices and guidance.

Islamic community did started long time ago to discredit OBL and AQ but Western press didn’t gave them much voice and coverage. Debate it’s going even now and those fatwas are refuted. And one more thing, Bill… If you didn’t catch this article, I recommend you to take a look. It’s interesting read:

Three Explanations for Al-Qaeda's Lack of A CBRN Attack
http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370251