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OUTLAW 09
10-31-2015, 02:51 PM
Unconfirmed....the Russia aircraft had a history of technical problems prior to this flight, but it appeared also to be an engine issue that does not rule out a SAM hit.

Will wait to see how this plays out..........

Video claim shot down #Russia' passenger plane above #Egypt #Sinai today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYvZ0u6vqQY …
Fake? or not?

IS has been operating in the area......configuration of the aircraft does appear to be an Airbus 320 series---might have in fact been returning due to an emergency call by the pilot and then hit by a SAM????

Sinai: don't want to speculate to much but Ansar Bait al-Maqdis DOES have manpads.
https://youtu.be/QWztP6rDges

OUTLAW 09
10-31-2015, 08:37 PM
Interesting if true as it appears the Airbus had engine issues and that would not have caused it to brake up in mid air........the IS video did show the aircraft training smoke from the engines

If news that #7K9268 bodies are found up to a 5km radius, then almost certain aircraft broke up in the air. RIP to the dead.

Russian pilots didn't let #Egypt air traf. controller know on emergencies, didn't ask for landing #7K9268 #Airbus321
pic.twitter.com/wdp7NmIv64

davidbfpo
10-31-2015, 11:12 PM
Yassin Musharbash (based in Germany) examines the claim by ISIS(Sinai) that they caused the crash and deaths:
What should we make of the IS claim of responsibility?
He concludes:
So, what should me make of all of this?That's easy:
* This incident should NOT be counted as an IS terror attack (yet).
* We should consider the written claim of responsibility by the IS Sinai province as quite possibly authentic, but not beyond doubt. Furthermore we should bear in mind that even if authentic, it can still be wrong
* We need to look closely at what the technical investigations will tell us
* We should look out for IS publications containing credible pieces of insider information.
Link:http://abususu.blogspot.be/2015/10/what-should-we-make-of-is-claim-of.html

For background on the crash of the Russian owned airliner I have relied upon the BBC's reporting:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34689870

jcustis
11-01-2015, 11:29 PM
The facts don't add up to an IS attack at the moment.

The aircraft was at 31K feet when contact was lost, and air traffic control radar analysis has highlighted a rapid drop (less than 30 seconds) in airspeed from 400+ kts to around 60 kts, followed by loss of track.

(reference the innterview towards ther bottom of the page)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34687139

Although more detailed analysis of the flight recorders are needed and there are conflicting reports of whether the pilot asked for vectoring to a divert airfield just before the aircraft went down, a surface-to-air missile does not look like a culprit.

MANPADs possessed by any Sinai insurgents wouldn't be able to even strike an a/c at that altitude.

I suppose a bomb could be the culprit, and it wouldn't have to be a Hollywood-style endeavour to bring a plane down. There is definitely a lot of security theater at the terminal and a timer-based device could be just as easily emplaced through cargo access, with a bit of effort.

OUTLAW 09
11-02-2015, 06:56 AM
Interesting if true as it appears the Airbus had engine issues and that would not have caused it to brake up in mid air........the IS video did show the aircraft training smoke from the engines

If news that #7K9268 bodies are found up to a 5km radius, then almost certain aircraft broke up in the air. RIP to the dead.

Russian pilots didn't let #Egypt air traf. controller know on emergencies, didn't ask for landing #7K9268 #Airbus321
pic.twitter.com/wdp7NmIv64


Here is a some additional info..... a number of Syrian commenters who have been tracking IS since 2011 do not in fact rule out 100% a SAM hit.

The aircraft literally broke up in mid air. the pilot did not at anytime state his emergency, the smart phone video while grainy did in fact depict the shape and configuration of an airbus in descent, flight radar 24 in fact confirms a sink rate of 6K feet per minute and it was when the video was made at SAM height, and the video depicts the aircraft trailing black smoke from the engine area.

Social media open source checks have indicated no old photo depicting a burning Airbus previously anywhere in the net.

On top of all of this AF and Lufthansa immediately stopped flying over the area AND the Russians have an overall poor performance rate on the maintenance of their commercial aircraft--this Airbus if reporting is correct was over 20 years old and the pilot had complained about the plane's conditions to his wife.

Side note--there has not been any reported similar mid air breakups by any Airbus before and there is a large number of them over 20 years and still flying daily.

If one looks at the crash site photos the plane hit the ground in about three main pieces and burnt out--interesting is the fact that at one of the burn sites with a large amount of crash wreckage the wings/engines were nowhere to be seen which seems to indicate they detached earlier and in mid air.

Still a puzzle I think......

jcustis
11-02-2015, 09:29 AM
This seems to show that the only thing missing onthe ground was the tail:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/01/russian-plane-crash-airbus-broke-up-in-mid-air

OUTLAW 09
11-02-2015, 01:47 PM
This seems to show that the only thing missing onthe ground was the tail:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/01/russian-plane-crash-airbus-broke-up-in-mid-air

Interesting that the owner of the aircraft today has "lanced" the thought that there was something more at work that engine problems.

Might simply be CYA on their part to coverup any poor maintenance on the aircraft BUT more international airlines are no longer flying over the crash area and they have not clearly stated why that is??

jcustis
11-02-2015, 02:36 PM
My guess is they are not flying over the Sinai for illogical reasons, the seats just can't be sold, and they have to show due diligence on being "careful".

No matter the final determination of the cause, this is going to tank tourism even further and hurt Sisi. Cairo bookings are already in the crapper and the bombing of the Mexican convoy in the desert was bad but somewhat manageable through PR spin.

The Egyptians, Airbus, Russians, and EU onlookers are all going to press for a conclusive determination of the cause and a very public release of the results.

If it turns out an engine took a dump or the airframe split, Sisi will demand that the word gets out in order to deflect any concerns of insurgent action in his country. He'll play the Russians to ensure they release those details if that's how it shakes out. Russia can point a finger at Airbus and blame the OEM.

If it turns out to be terrorism, Airbus will be all over that to prove its aircraft was airworthy.

The Russian government has little to lose, no matter how this plays out, so it's pretty even odds that the cause will be released, if it can be conclusively determined.

OUTLAW 09
11-02-2015, 05:59 PM
My guess is they are not flying over the Sinai for illogical reasons, the seats just can't be sold, and they have to show due diligence on being "careful".

No matter the final determination of the cause, this is going to tank tourism even further and hurt Sisi. Cairo bookings are already in the crapper and the bombing of the Mexican convoy in the desert was bad but somewhat manageable through PR spin.

The Egyptians, Airbus, Russians, and EU onlookers are all going to press for a conclusive determination of the cause and a very public release of the results.

If it turns out an engine took a dump or the airframe split, Sisi will demand that the word gets out in order to deflect any concerns of insurgent action in his country. He'll play the Russians to ensure they release those details if that's how it shakes out. Russia can point a finger at Airbus and blame the OEM.

If it turns out to be terrorism, Airbus will be all over that to prove its aircraft was airworthy.

The Russian government has little to lose, no matter how this plays out, so it's pretty even odds that the cause will be released, if it can be conclusively determined.

The really interesting piece of info is that the trail sectuion broke cleanly from the aircraft---the same place had when it was flown by another airline a recent "tailstrike" on landing that was completely repaired--the photo of the tail section shows a truly clean break all around that repair--almost a perfect separation.

A German air investigator is speculating either the repair failed or a bomb in the rear luggage section would have caused the tail section to cleanly separate as well as that was the weakest point in the airframe. He went on to state that this area is normally one of the strongest points in the Airbus construction. He is pointing to a potential repair failure as the tail section was almost intact but would not rule out a bomb.

Russia media #TASS:
Technical "inspection of the aircraft did not take place b4 its flight"
https://archive.is/BjjVH pic.twitter.com/Ran2rmwEYN

OUTLAW 09
11-02-2015, 07:01 PM
Putin's delayed reaction is a sign there is still uncertainty over what caused the plane to break up mid-air.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/541492.html …

OUTLAW 09
11-03-2015, 02:01 PM
Life News has the reputation in eastern Ukraine as being the "LieNews"--still this comment is interesting in itself...........

Lifenews: "medical forensic report shows passengers sitting in back died from explosion, 90% of body surface burned"
http://lifenews.ru/news/167897

Would suggest a bomb onboard.....in the rear luggage area or in someone's take on luggage..

jcustis
11-03-2015, 02:53 PM
But bombs going off in cargo holds don't necessarily cause flash burn injuries.

Exploding fuel might cause that, and when you look at the photos of the airframe wreckage on the ground (sans the tail section), it looks like components immediately surrounding and aft of the engines burned to some extent.

The more logical explanation is that a large chunk of the airframe impacted the ground intact and either burst into flame or continued to burn after igniting at some higher altitude. That's where they got the burns.

OUTLAW 09
11-04-2015, 05:29 PM
But bombs going off in cargo holds don't necessarily cause flash burn injuries.

Exploding fuel might cause that, and when you look at the photos of the airframe wreckage on the ground (sans the tail section), it looks like components immediately surrounding and aft of the engines burned to some extent.

The more logical explanation is that a large chunk of the airframe impacted the ground intact and either burst into flame or continued to burn after igniting at some higher altitude. That's where they got the burns.

UK govt believes 'the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device'.

davidbfpo
11-04-2015, 10:14 PM
The BBC News leading item is about this:
The Russian plane that crashed in Egypt at the weekend "may well have been brought down by an explosive device", Downing Street has said.All flights between the UK and Sharm el-Sheikh have been suspended on Wednesday evening as UK experts assess security at the Egyptian airport.
Number 10 said flights had been delayed as a "precautionary measure" after "more information has come to light".
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34724604


Now:
ntelligence suggests the Russian plane that crashed in Egypt killing all 224 people on board was likely brought down by a bomb, US and UK officials say. But they say they have yet to reach a formal conclusion.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34728901

davidbfpo
11-04-2015, 10:24 PM
So we now reportedly have 2k plus UK tourists in Sharm-el-Sheikh stranded, plus more who cannot get there at home. One of the bigger travel operators has 1700 alone.

Tomorrow President Sisi is due to visit London, on a state visit and already Egyptian diplomats are angry - as tourism to Sharm is effectively over for the UK, however temporary. Before the halt to UK flights he was interviewed by the BBC and claimed all of Sinai was under control:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34703978

OUTLAW 09
11-05-2015, 12:56 PM
Pretty good evidence here. High probability this was an ISIS bomb from inside the plane.
https://twitter.com/robpulsenews/status/662043750382837760 …

TheCurmudgeon
11-05-2015, 03:37 PM
It may have been a bomb, but is that what Daesh was claiming? I thought they claimed that they shot the plane down.

If I had really brought the plane down I think I would know how I did it.

OUTLAW 09
11-05-2015, 10:20 PM
Kremlin says US or Israel shot down #7K9268:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RobPulseNews/status/662223816870002688 …

What is the Obama WH doing about this? ZERO.
http://observer.com/2015/11/obama-fails-to-fight-putins-propaganda-machine/ …

davidbfpo
11-06-2015, 01:33 PM
From Jason Burke, the SME on terrorism for The Guardian, he concludes that:
If it was indeed an Isis bomb that brought down the plane – and both Egypt and Russia have downplayed any suggestion (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/31/us-egypt-crash-islamic-state-idUSKCN0SP0P520151031) that the crash is linked to terrorism – then this still does not signal that the group has launched a fully fledged global campaign of violence. Yet.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/05/if-isis-did-bring-down-russian-plane-what-does-it-mean-for-the-war-on-terror

The Soufan Group briefing ends with:
Beyond the immediate theater of the Syrian civil war, the international community will have to recalculate the degree to which the threat from terrorism has increased as a result of the Islamic State joining al-Qaeda (http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-the-strong-state-of-a-stateless-al-qaeda/) as a group capable of attacks outside its main area of operation. It is depressing that after 14 years of counterterrorism measures that have focused in particular on protecting civilian aviation, the threat to passenger transportation seems as real as ever.
Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-terror-in-the-skies/?catid=3

davidbfpo
11-06-2015, 01:48 PM
The Egyptian security shutdown (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11976571/Russian-plane-crash-sinai-islamic-state-sharm-el-sheikh-airport-egypt-latest-news.html) was sparked after British spies intercepted messages which showed Isil extremists had plotted a major terror attack in the region, the Telegraph can disclose. The communications and “chatter” - uncovered by British intelligence only after the Russian passenger jet tragedy (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11967725/Russian-plane-crash-everything-we-know-on-Monday-morning-about-the-airliner-Isil-says-it-brought-down-on-Egypts-Sinai-Peninsula.html) - are what led David Cameron to say it was “more likely than not” that a bomb brought the plane down on Saturday killing 224 people.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/11978749/Sharm-el-Sheikh-flights-shutdown-triggered-when-British-spies-uncovered-Isil-bomb-plot-after-Russian-air-crash.html

OUTLAW 09
11-06-2015, 07:37 PM
Al Arabiya English ✔ @AlArabiya_Eng
#BREAKING Black box confirms 'violent, sudden' demise of Russian jet: investigation source
http://ara.tv/zrhqn

ISIS reportedly warned of 'something big in the area' before the Russian plane went down in Egypt
http://read.bi/1PfrME1

Sound of explosion heard on Russian plane's black box: French TV
http://reut.rs/1OtPDzQ

Unprecedented: US & UK shared #SinaiCrash intel w/#Russia before #Putin suspended Russian flights to Sharm

OUTLAW 09
11-07-2015, 03:32 PM
In a new news re #Sinai plane crash a new report revealed a #UK plane barely survived a missile fired near Sharm el-Sheikh last year..

Reports that an IS SAM missed an UK airliner by 300 meters in August this year....UK and US kept it quiet.

OUTLAW 09
11-07-2015, 03:58 PM
In a new news re #Sinai plane crash a new report revealed a #UK plane barely survived a missile fired near Sharm el-Sheikh last year..

Reports that an IS SAM missed an UK airliner by 300 meters in August this year....UK and US kept it quiet.

UK airliner had to dodge a missile while nearing #sharmelsheikh airport. But govt decided it was OK

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/06/missed-by-a-1000-feet-how-british-holidaymakers-came-close-to-being-hit-by-a-missile-in-august …

davidbfpo
11-07-2015, 05:08 PM
To be fair the BBC is reporting:
The British government investigated and concluded the incident was linked to routine Egyptian military activity and was not a "targeted attack".....Aviation security experts told BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner it had involved artillery practice by the Egyptian army.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34754577

There has been press reporting here of chaotic airport security @ Sharm, with bribes to pass through screening and poor security for airport staff. One gets the impression these reports did not reach anyone brave enough to refer the concerns to politicians.

OUTLAW 09
11-08-2015, 06:43 AM
To be fair the BBC is reporting:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34754577

There has been press reporting here of chaotic airport security @ Sharm, with bribes to pass through screening and poor security for airport staff. One gets the impression these reports did not reach anyone brave enough to refer the concerns to politicians.

The SAM launch in August cover story of "friendly fire" was simply a cover story in order to not to admit that IS had in fact launched a SAM and in order to not disturb the "tourists/tourist industry" which is important to Egypt.

If you go back to the extremely limited "military SAM launch story"--there was not much at all carried even by social media--and the "military SAM" was never ID'd nor was they any explanation for a military exercise being carried out near the runway take off area that commercial airliners were using to gain height on.

Actually if one tracks the cover story--social media only picked up on it in the last two days--a SAM launch friendly or otherwise would have been a massive red signal flare to social media--but nothing of the kind occurred.

BREAKING: Black boxes show no system or hardware failures aboard #A321 prior to crash - RT
http://on.rt.com/6v35

ISIS in Aleppo releases a video congratulating #ISIS in Sinai for downing Russian plane
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/11/islamic-state-video-congratulates-sinai-province-for-downing-russian-airliner.php …

OUTLAW 09
11-08-2015, 06:47 AM
The SAM launch in August cover story of "friendly fire" was simply a cover story in order to not to admit that IS had in fact launched a SAM and in order to not disturb the "tourists/tourist industry" which is important to Egypt.

If you go back to the extremely limited "military SAM launch story"--there was not much at all carried even by social media--and the "military SAM" was never ID'd nor was they any explanation for a military exercise being carried out near the runway take off area that commercial airliners were using to gain height on.

Actually if one tracks the cover story--social media only picked up on it in the last two days--a SAM launch friendly or otherwise would have been a massive red signal flare to social media--but nothing of the kind occurred.

BREAKING: Black boxes show no system or hardware failures aboard #A321 prior to crash - RT
http://on.rt.com/6v35

ISIS in Aleppo releases a video congratulating #ISIS in Sinai for downing Russian plane
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/11/islamic-state-video-congratulates-sinai-province-for-downing-russian-airliner.php …

BTW--Putin's actions following the bombing have been a tad "odd"--for the first 72 hours virtually no comment, then a short press release and he still has not gone to St. Petersburg where many of the families are from AND that his is so called "home town".

Secondly his actions in organizing just ten planes to bring home an estimated 70K Russian tourists are the actions of an "amateur" not at all the image of this "shirtless superman of a Russian leader".

For days after air crash Russian TV said little about terror theory. Last night's bulletin had long report about 'Sinai Province' jihadists

So is the next move by the Russian military and Putin "in defeating IS--into Egypt?????

OUTLAW 09
11-08-2015, 07:07 AM
Russia never misses a chance or the info warriors to blame the Wes for just about anything and everything.........FROM this time Sputnik fully owned by the Russian government....

RussiaLies by trying to blame the West for #EgyptCrash.
Sputnik suspects that British MI6 agents planted the bomb. pic.twitter.com/ZhUIRT7UqL

BUT wait--a newer version is out........
Wait! it wasn't MI5,It was the CIA who shot down the Russian plane,says Russian news source
http://yournewswire.com/russia-captures-two-cia-assets-who-planned-sinai-plane-crash/ …

OUTLAW 09
11-08-2015, 07:30 AM
The curious tale of how #Russia almost banned Boeing 737 jets and grounded half its airlines
http://goo.gl/YD2xzi
pic.twitter.com/zCPC5bNIjG

OUTLAW 09
11-08-2015, 08:52 PM
BREAKING NEWS: Israel intercepted the ISIS conversations regarding the Sinai Russian plane crash & shared them with western intelligence.

Bill Moore
11-09-2015, 12:40 AM
British extremists linked to jet bomb:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/617832/British-extremists-jet-bomb-accents-Sharm-El-Sheikh-Egypt


They were overheard celebrating moments after the explosion that blew the plane apart, killing all 224 on board.

The jihadis were heard talking in Birmingham and London accents by spies at GCHQ in Cheltenham.

Trained in Syria and with an electronics background, it is believed they may have had a hand in building the bomb.

I'll leave it to our British friends to tell us the credibility of the Express. As far as I know it may be a rag, but if the report is accurate it is certainly concerning.


“We know there are British jihadis in Egypt fighting with members of Islamic State. They were trained in Syria and are now hardened terrorists. Some of the Britons have an electronics background and have been developing some very sophisticated bombs.

“They have been experimenting with different-sized charges and different types of explosives but there was nothing prior to this attack to suggest that they were going after airlines.”

davidbfpo
11-09-2015, 08:59 AM
Bill,

I fear that the Daily Express and probably other papers have been "spun" a story from the intelligence agencies, albeit 'off the record'. There is a piece of legislation due for review and the official PR machine has been in overdrive to ensure it passes without amendment. On a quick check no other national papers have run with the story.

Yesterday in my reading one report stated it was Israeli intelligence that provided the "chatter" to the UK after the attack.

Awhile ago now a UK paper IIRC published photos of an aspiring IED maker, who had joined ISIS and upon examination a SME was far from convinced any IED could be made.

We get regular reports on "chatter" and British accents being overheard in Afghanistan and the Middle East, rarely followed up - in the public domain - with anything else. Yes several hundred UK citizens / residents have gone to fight in the region in the last three years, perhaps a few can make IEDs and many more can boast accordingly in the knowledge it maybe overheard.

OUTLAW 09
11-09-2015, 12:02 PM
In Russian........Russian info war hard at work........

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Here is Russian state TV basically accusing the US of complicity in the Metrojet crash. Take from it what you will.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhSPNkCoClA …

from Russian state TV: terrorists took down Sinai plane with approval from the Americans
https://twitter.com/navalny/status/663667172443594752 …

OUTLAW 09
11-09-2015, 12:37 PM
Russia's latest conspiracy theory: #EgyptCrash caused by "sound & light" technologies known to US, Israel & Germany
pic.twitter.com/pKT4ovE3tY

OUTLAW 09
11-09-2015, 06:41 PM
Russia's latest conspiracy theory: #EgyptCrash caused by "sound & light" technologies known to US, Israel & Germany
pic.twitter.com/pKT4ovE3tY

Russian info war drumbeat just keeps on beating........one has to wonder why after Russia admits it got formal info files from the US FBI.......and from the UK as well.

@A_SHEKH0VTS0V ominous stuff, Kiselev indeed ends by suggesting West made a deal with IS(IS). Remember, Kiselev in Russia big & MAINSTREAM.

OUTLAW 09
11-10-2015, 06:36 AM
Appears both Russia and Egypt does not a full and clear investigation of the air crash....actually wonder why that is??????

BREAKING: #Russia and #Egypt refuse FBI help investigating plane crash: U.S. source - @Reuters

davidbfpo
02-05-2016, 04:13 PM
John Schinder has written this article 'Who Really Murdered 224 Innocent People on Flight 9268?' and the sub-title says it all almost:
First Moscow said the Islamic State brought down their jetliner—now the Kremlin claims it was Turkish nationalists
Link:http://observer.com/2016/02/who-really-murdered-224-innocent-people-on-flight-9268/

The very short version: the last two paragraphs:
Moscow’s revised propaganda is consistent with presenting Ankara as the “real” force behind ISIS, which is a now-standard trope (https://www.rt.com/news/324263-russia-briefing-isis-funding/) in Russian media. “Low-grade Kremlin bull####” was how a senior American intelligence official with extensive experience in the region described the current Moscow line on the Grey Wolves: “trying to pin the airline disaster on Ankara this way is sure to kick the hornet’s nest in Turkey.”

That the Grey Wolves, not the Islamic State, murdered 224 innocent people is a far-reaching claim that requires genuine evidence to be taken seriously. To date, none has been forthcoming. If Moscow has such evidence, it needs to present it to the world, before the rising tensions it’s creating with Turkey threaten to engulf an already dangerously unstable region.