Venezuela, Hugo Chavez and what next?

[Stratiotes]

An interesting take on their ability to see our weakness (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060418/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_arming_the_people_1).


CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez constantly warns Venezuelans a U.S. invasion is imminent.

Now he's begun training a civilian militia as well as the Venezuelan army to resist in the only way possible against a much better-equipped force: by taking to the hills and fighting a guerrilla war.......

[GorTex6]

Post #55, Next small war? (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=584&postcount=55) :cool:

Jorge Verstrynge: The Guru of Bolivarian Asymmetric Warfare
(http://www.vcrisis.com/index.php?content=letters/200509091152)

09.09.05 | The new national defense doctrine adopted recently by the Armed Forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is based on the core premise that Venezuela will someday (soon) fight a David vs. Goliath war against invading U.S. military forces. This doctrine calls for a long-term “asymmetric war” in which committed Bolivarian revolutionaries and foreign (mainly Cuban) supporters would wage a “war of the people” on all fronts against the invading U.S. military forces. This new doctrine wasn’t devised overnight. It was several years in the making. Cuban military and political planners were very influential in the process from a strategic and tactical perspective. However, the national defense doctrine of asymmetric warfare also has its philosophical and ideological proponents, like Jorge Verstrynge, for example.

First there was Norberto Ceresole, the Argentine neo-fascist and anti-semite who Chavez embraced in the late 1990s because Ceresole had written at length on the need for authoritarian military-civil regimes in which civilians and military would be mobilized jointly to carry out the will of a supreme leader. However, Ceresole eventually fell out of favor with Chavez, and died of a terminal illness. Now it’s Verstrynge’s turn to bask under the Bolivarian sun. Chavez is very enthused with Verstrynge, as is Division General Raul Isaias Baduel, the Bolivarian army commander who likes to quote Sun Tzu, and burn incense in his office while Gregorian chants play softly in the background.

Verstrynge is the author of a book titled “La Guerra Periferica y el Islam Revolucionario: Origenes, Reglas y Etica de la Guerra Asimetrica.”

[GorTex6]

Was the liberation of Iraq meant to stop the massive oil contracts (especially for China) before the UN embargo was lifted? At this very same time, our own oil is disrupted by riots in Venezuela(China behind it?), China attacks our steel industry and constantly hacks our computers. SARs mysteriously appears in China; perhaps our lousy attempt to seek revenge?

Who (http://www.terrorism.com/documents/TRC-Analysis/unrestricted.pdf) is training Venezuela? (http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsf/articles/20060120.aspx)

Who is buying oil and supplying weapons to Iran?

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 22 Feb 07: Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution (http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/latin_america/19_venezuela___hugo_chavezs_revolution.pdf)
...Three scenarios could trouble Chávez. The likeliest, at least in the next few years, is that problems will arise if oil prices drop to a point where the president can neither sustain current social spending, nor paper over the economic distortions produced by exchange rate and price controls, inflation and increasing dependence on imports....

...A second possibility is political recovery of the opposition to the point where it could take control of the National Assembly and provide a serious alternative. This is a distant prospect, since further splintering of the opposition has become apparent, but, in the event, the president might choose to use the considerable array of non-democratic tools he has amassed over the last eight years, and diehard Chavistas might be prepared to resort to violence to defend the regime....

...A third scenario involves a challenge to Chávez from within his movement. There are some fissures and tensions over where the president is taking the country, and at some point it is conceivable that elements within the administration might challenge Chávez´s handling of power....

...There is also the question as to what kind of country any non-Bolivarian president would inherit. If current trends continue, an opposition president would face a partisan military, the ultimate arbiter of power, with limited means by which to control it....

...As in Colombia and Mexico, there is an additional danger of crime, particularly drugs, creating a destabilising dynamic, corrupting institutions on a scale that causes the public to lose what little faith remains in the police and judiciary. Corruption of the armed forces, already evident, could also undermine security. More dangerous still would be a transformation of the armed, irregular Chavista groups into criminal mafias....

...Violent internal conflict is only potential in these scenarios and situations, not inevitable, but if President Chávez continues to polarise society and dismantle the checks and balances of representative democracy as he has for eight years, the risks are considerable.

[SWJED]

29 May LA Times - Venezuelan TV Station Goes Dark (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-ventv29may29,1,697130.story?coll=la-headlines-world) by Chris Kraul.

Venezuelan folk music, a Cuban documentary and heavy doses of government propaganda glorifying "21st century socialism" highlighted the first day of a new television channel that on Monday took over airspace of this nation's oldest and most popular station, a frequent critic of leftist President Hugo Chavez.

At midnight Sunday, Radio Caracas Television, or RCTV, went dark for the first time in 53 years after the Chavez government refused to renew its broadcast license, alleging violations of telecommunications law. That decision, announced in December, has been slammed by international press freedom groups, several governments and even some Chavez supporters.

Protests that began Sunday night around the national telecommunications regulatory commission's office continued into the morning at several universities in the Caracas area...

[Steve Blair]

Ol' Hugo reminds me more and more of ol' Adolf (or kindly Uncle Joe) every day.

[goesh]

I wonder if there will be some book burning too?

[tequila]

Reminds me more of this guy. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Per%C3%B3n)

[John T. Fishel]

Way to go, tequila!:D Parallel is great in more ways than one.

[Steve Blair]

Ah, yes...too true.

[Tom Odom]

Does his wife look like Madonna? :cool:

Tequila, that is a great comparison. Chavez seems to have those iconic qualities for those inclined to despise the Yankees.

Tom

[Steve Blair]

And now he's going after another one....BBC story (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6699383.stm).

Venezuela's government has accused a TV station of inciting a murder attempt on President Hugo Chavez, hours after taking another network off the air.

[tequila]

The other side - RCTV and the Venezuelan media establishment (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-jones30may30,0,2422791,print.story?coll=la-opinion-center)are hardly innocent.

... After military rebels overthrew Chavez and he disappeared from public view for two days, RCTV's biased coverage edged fully into sedition. Thousands of Chavez supporters took to the streets to demand his return, but none of that appeared on RCTV or other television stations. RCTV News Director Andres Izarra later testified at National Assembly hearings on the coup attempt that he received an order from superiors at the station: "Zero pro-Chavez, nothing related to Chavez or his supporters…. The idea was to create a climate of transition and to start to promote the dawn of a new country." While the streets of Caracas burned with rage, RCTV ran cartoons, soap operas and old movies such as "Pretty Woman." On April 13, 2002, Granier and other media moguls met in the Miraflores palace to pledge support to the country's coup-installed dictator, Pedro Carmona, who had eliminated the Supreme Court, the National Assembly and the Constitution.

Would a network that aided and abetted a coup against the government be allowed to operate in the United States? The U.S. government probably would have shut down RCTV within five minutes after a failed coup attempt — and thrown its owners in jail. Chavez's government allowed it to continue operating for five years, and then declined to renew its 20-year license to use the public airwaves. It can still broadcast on cable or via satellite dish.

Granier and others should not be seen as free-speech martyrs. Radio, TV and newspapers remain uncensored, unfettered and unthreatened by the government. Most Venezuelan media are still controlled by the old oligarchy and are staunchly anti-Chavez ...

Men like Peron and Chavez do not gain widespread popular support out of nowhere.

[SWJED]

This Reuters report - Venezuela's last opposition station on notice (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-venez30may30,1,6407937.story?coll=la-headlines-world)

As tens of thousands of people marched here Tuesday in protest of President Hugo Chavez's closure of opposition television station RCTV, the leftist leader called the news channel Globovision an enemy of the state.

The protests were in their fourth consecutive day, but state television showed hundreds of government supporters marching in downtown Caracas to celebrate Chavez's move.

"Enemies of the homeland, particularly those behind the scenes, I will give you a name: Globovision. Greetings gentlemen of Globovision, you should watch where you are going," Chavez said in a broadcast that all channels were required to show...

[Firestaller]

When you have a country with possibly the largest oil reserve in the world link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orinoco_Belt), there's a lot for the leader of Venezuela to be paranoid about.

[Jedburgh]

SSI, 24 Aug 07: Latin America's New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB808.pdf)
In 2005, Dr. Max Manwaring wrote a monograph entitled Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare (http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB628.pdf). It came at a time when the United States and Venezuela were accelerating a verbal sparing match regarding which country was destabilizing Latin America more. The rhetoric continues. Moreover, President Chavez shows no sign of standing down; he slowly and deliberately centralizes his power in Venezuela, and carefully and adroitly articulates his Bolivarian dream (the idea of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. economic and political imperialism). Yet, most North Americans dismiss Chavez as a “nut case,” or—even if he is a threat to the security and stability of the Hemisphere—the possibilities of that threat coming to fruition are too far into the future to worry about.

Thus, Dr. Manwaring’s intent in this new monograph is to explain in greater depth what President Chavez is doing and how he is doing it. First, he explains that Hugo Chavez’s threat is straightforward, and that it is being translated into a consistent, subtle, ambiguous, and ambitious struggle for power that is beginning to insinuate itself into political life in much of the Western Hemisphere. Second, he shows how President Chavez is encouraging his Venezuelan and other followers to pursue a confrontational, populist, and nationalistic agenda that will be achieved only by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state—and other Latin American states—to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by conducting an irregular Fourth-Generation War “Super Insurgency”; and, (3) country-by-country, building a great new Bolivarian state out of a phased Program for the Liberation of Latin America....

[TROUFION]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_colombia

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_colombia

Ah Hugo, in my opinion you are a dollar store version of Cesear. But you do keep South America interesting. I wouldn't put invading Colombia beyond his mindset, could he pull that off? Would Venezuala support him and if so for how long.

I think he could launch an invasion but beyond a few weeks it would bog down, certaintly not worth the costs. Unless he really believes his investigation into the "real reason" for Simon Bolivar's death was by Colombian Agents...

-T

[Ron Humphrey]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_colombia

Ah Hugo, in my opinion you are a dollar store version of Cesear. But you do keep South America interesting. I wouldn't put invading Colombia beyond his mindset, could he pull that off? Would Venezuala support him and if so for how long.

I think he could launch an invasion but beyond a few weeks it would bog down, certaintly not worth the costs. Unless he really believes his investigation into the "real reason" for Simon Bolivar's death was by Colombian Agents...

-T

Mr. Chavez is extremely good at doing and saying whatever he wants without thinking through the end results. Me thinks Some of his neighbors might have a word or two on this and what they say will end up doing more to determine what happens then anything he dreams up.

Just make sure nobody tells him the king isn't wearing any clothes:wry:

As for Equador simply put, handle your own garbage or it will be handled
for you. Sounds fair to me:D

[MattC86]

Colombia is now claiming they uncovered intel linking FARC and Ecuador. . . which is hardly a surprise given that when under pressure, the narco groups and the guerrillas cross into Ecuador for security. I still haven't heard any good analysis about whether this is a lot of bluster or a serious chance for major conflict, but it's unnerving either way.

Especially given that it could end up the subject matter for a "big wars" forum. . .

Regards,

Matt

[wm]

for Turkey, why not for Colombia too? ;)

[selil]

How well does armor work in the Darian gap?

[Ron Humphrey]

How well does armor work in the Darian gap?

It may be interesting to note how much of the overall forces ordered to the border show up in WORKING order.

As to the overall how do we suppose the Drug cartels themselves would act to new players in house. Although initially there might be some curiousity about possibilities, one would think most of the big timers didn't get where they are by being overtly stupid. I'm quite sure it would occur to them where their loyalties would end up having to be in order to continue their existence.

Suppose Mr Sulfur smeller thought about that? ;)

[pcmfr]

The solution to this problem is a $.50 match round.

[Wildcat]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/03/ecuador.colombia/index.html

Colombia is now making claims of recent, substantial financial ties between Hugo and the FARC. $300 million in financial ties, to be precise. The timing of this information's release seems interesting, no?

Uribe is also not redeploying his forces to meet the Venezuelan and Ecuadoran forces. He's leaving his borders more or less unprotected. That's a real melon-scratcher, in my opinion. Any idea what that's about?

Honestly, besides a few new airframes from Russia, what does Venezuela's military have to boast of? The only area in which they would be relatively free to operate would be the south, where the FARC is and where the CAF are not. But the terrain is not at all suitable to conventional military forces, so... ? Plus, the CAF have been fighting the FARC for 40 years, so they're quite experienced. It seems to me that with help from U.S. satellites and AWACS, and maybe a carrier task force in the Gulf of Panama, this would be a very brief and very one-sided defeat for the Venezuelan and Ecuadoran forces. I'm pretty sure the OAS would immediately condemn any hostile action by Venezuela as well. This seems like a one-way ticket to humiliation for Chavez.

[Ron Humphrey]

One thing you can almost count on is for him to do something not so bright.

And I would bet you quite a few of the Venezuelan military leaders know it.:cool:

[JJackson]

Post 9/11 the US unilaterally changed the rules of the game, they had significant international sympathy - and the military/diplomatic/economic superpower status did not exactly encourage other states to be too vocal in their complaints. They significantly weakened their position on human rights (enhanced interrogation techniques, Gitmo etc.) and on the norms of international sovereignty (kidnapping foreign nationals in other countries AKA extraordinary rendition) and this week we have seen military strikes in Pakistan and Somalia (presumably by US forces).
What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Having changed the rules others have taken the opportunity to jump on the band waggon. Now it is the 'new norm' for any tin pot nasty-piece-of-work who has control of their countries military - regardless of how they got there - to call anyone they want to get rid of a terrorist and massacre them. If that includes extremely repressive tactics (Russia vs Chechen's, IDF vs Lebanon) or forays into another country (Turkey/Iraq, Colombia/Ecuador) then the new rules say no problem - as long as you remember to call whoever you want to attack a terrorist.
If the US intends to make the rules and then enforce them then they must expect to have to face vastly increased opposition across the board; friends shift to neutral, neutral to hostile and hostile to terrorist.
Just my $.02

[Steve Blair]

But this is really nothing new. Blaming the US may be fashionable, but this has cropped up time and again in history. Call them reactionary stooges, counter-revolutionaries, Imperialist/Communist puppets...whatever. The tactic has always been there. Doesn't mean the US was wise in using it, but we certainly didn't invent it.

This seems more like Chavez trying to create some kind of internal unity after his defeat at the polls a few months back. And I think Columbia's wise to not provide any military provocation. Forces Chavez to show his true colors, if his intent is to actually commit forces and not just rattle his saber.

[Ken White]

Post 9/11 the US unilaterally changed the rules of the game, they had significant international sympathy...

While the rest of your comment has has elements of truth in it, the US has thrown its weight around internationally and unilaterally since 1795.

As did great Britain in the day -- and from whom we learned to be assertive -- as have numerous others over the years.

Nothing new here. Look at Ol' Fidel -- he and Che were throwing their weight around before all you young folks realized it and long before 9/11 -- about 40 years before. Go elsewhere in the world and there are myriad examples.

I really don't mind folks blaming the US for all the ills of the world but it would be nice if they'd get their facts straight. ;)

[Ron Humphrey]

I really don't mind folks blaming the US for all the ills of the world but it would be nice if they'd get their facts straight. ;)

why we need to keep you and yours around a while yet:D

[J Wolfsberger]

I really don't mind folks blaming the US for all the ills of the world but it would be nice if they'd get their facts straight. ;)

I'd like to know where we're keeping the time machine that enables us to go back 5,000 or so years and bring all the evil into the world. After all, the world was a far better place before the U.S. came into existence. ;)

[Norfolk]

Whenever I read about how the U.S. blew all this "international sympathy" that it had immediately after 9/11, I still have a hard time getting past the memories of all those newpapers and TV reports saying that it was just the U.S. getting what was coming to it. Between the various non-US news networks and some of the papers (not least a particular prominent French newspaper), while there was certainly a lot of sympathy, it was also the occasion when a lot of the haters lifted their veils briefly and came right out and gleefully kicked the victim while he was down.

My sister was working in her HR office that day, and as everyone watched the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers on live TV, one of the Bangladeshi-born software engineers was jumping up and down and laughing.

That day I tossed my carefully nurtured Canadian anti-American views out in the trash, forever. Every country has committed evils, some more than others, but for whatever its evils, past and present, the U.S. is not only one of the most benign imperial powers that has ever existed in modern times, but probably the most magnanimous - and utterly necessary to holding the line against worse evils in the world. Perhaps only Britain in its Imperial heyday even approaches the U.S. in these regards.

It is perverse to view the U.S. as the source of evil; what's more it is envy to want to see it as such, and to see it suffer for its alleged "crimes". Anyone can pick up a copy of a Black Rose Press book and read about the horrible things that America and Americans have done in places like Central America, etc. And a good deal of it is indeed true, and will anguish you in ways that you can't easily shake. But even then, that does not begin to approach the utter inhumanity of regimes like Stalinist Russia, Nazi Germany, or Maoist China - or the many "lesser" such examples as Cambodia or North Korea. Most of those who are willing to condemn the U.S. for its crimes - real, imagined, and exaggerated - have owed their place to do so in no small part to the blood, treasure, and sacrifice poured out by the U.S. in quantities that no other Western country is willing to bear in just proportion. Envy is at the root of most anti-Americanism.

It's not clear - yet - whether or not Colombia was justified in making an incursion into Ecuador or not. But if FARC and the "dirty bomb" bit, along with the alleged support of the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan Governments for FARC do indeed turn out to be true, then it's the latter, not Colombia, who have some 'splainin' to do. And so far, Colombia is doing the right thing, by apologizing for the incursion and playing it (comparatively) cool, and not making any quick (military) moves.

[Tom Odom]

My sister was working in her HR office that day, and as everyone watched the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers on live TV, one of the Bangladeshi-born software engineers was jumping up and down and laughing.

It was most surreal here as we were in a mission rehearsal exercise for the Balkans and some of our Muslim role players did the same.....considering the US role in that region, it was Twilight Zone stuff.

Tom

[JJackson]

Firstly an apology, I had just waded through the BBC international site and was seething from the unnecessary loss of life and general hatred in the days news. I then made two hasty and provocative posts which, on reflection, should have been toned down.
Sorry Steve and everyone else.

That said I would still disagree with Ken on 9/11 being a watershed in US policy. The birth of the GWOT was not the start of those with power throwing their weight around but it was a major change in policy focus and I would argue counter-productively. As to the Brits in days of empire I would not even consider trying defend some of their actions, opium, East India company etc. etc. I don’t know the origin of the term ‘Gunboat diplomacy’ but I have a nasty feeling we might have spawned it.

Take the missile strikes on Dhoble ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7276535.stm) this is not a town that is likely to have a lot of warm sentiment towards the US but the strikes seem to have stirred up a lot of anger over the civilian deaths. The target – according to press reports – seems to have been either Saleh Ali Nabhan ( suspected of involvement with Kenyan hotel bombing and manpad attack on airliner) or Hassan Turki (UIC & Ogaden) how good the intelligence was I obviously don’t know but there seem to have been hits on more than one site and no claim of any success. What is the net result likely to be? Have the planners been reading their COIN manuals? Newly bereaved relatives ripe for recruitment to the cause and a general shift of the population towards the anti-American end of the spectrum? This town is near the Kenyan boarder and the US is already blamed for supporting the Ethiopian invasion and attendant misery caused. The boarder was closed from the Kenyan side as soon as the Ethiopian invasion began, and remains so. This seems to have been a co-ordinated action between the US and its two local allies in an attempt to apprehend some wanted men thought to be in the area. Any senior UIC, or terrorists, in the area would have had their own bolt holes, safe houses and support networks those that suffered by not being able to get the waiting aid agencies on the Kenyan side of the boarder were – yet again – the genuine refugees. So much misery for so little gain, this pattern of actions keeps being repeated and keeps swelling the ranks and coffers of the real enemy. Don’t back the despots, when civilians need help, help them and make a few friends. So much damage has been done to America’s reputation in the Muslim world it may be a very long time before they start saluting the Stars and Stripes but lets try and at least get a few less burnt.

[Ken White]

wrong with saying what you think.

Firstly an apology, I had just waded through the BBC international site and was seething from the unnecessary loss of life and general hatred in the days news. I then made two hasty and provocative posts which, on reflection, should have been toned down.
Sorry Steve and everyone else.

That said I would still disagree with Ken on 9/11 being a watershed in US policy. The birth of the GWOT was not the start of those with power throwing their weight around but it was a major change in policy focus and I would argue counter-productively...I think that you're partly correct, it was a 'policy change' of sorts -- but only in that it became a stated policy rather than an unstated but actual policy we have pursued for over 200 years. Both Britain and France were horrified in 1801 that we elected to attack the Barbary Corsairs rather than pay tribute and tolerate their enslavement of westerners. As has been said, there is little new under the sun.

What Bush did was flout the rules of international diplomacy; he rejected Kyoto -- but so had the US Senate some years before, it was never going to be ratified. Same thing applies to the International Criminal court; the Senate will never agree to that (correctly in my opinion). Bush didn't change reality, he merely talked about it. Look at pre-emptive strikes for example; we've done literally hundreds over the years; just never announced it as a policy. Bush did that -- that just got a lot of people's knickers in a twist when all he really did was give voice to something we -- and most nations in the world -- have always practiced but wouldn't talk about.

I've been traveling internationally since 1947. Anti-Americanism was present then and it has broadly stayed at the same level since. Viet Nam was a high point; more approbation appeared then than does today.As to the Brits in days of empire I would not even consider trying defend some of their actions, opium, East India company etc. etc. I don’t know the origin of the term ‘Gunboat diplomacy’ but I have a nasty feeling we might have spawned it.Why would you not defend it? You had nothing to do with it. Britain reacted in tune with the times to events. Did they make mistakes? Sure. However, you did more good than harm. You have every right to be proud of the accomplishments of the empire and no need to be apologetic. I cannot understand this new trait of self-flagellation in the European hearth; I see it as self righteous but self defeating foolishness.
...So much misery for so little gain, this pattern of actions keeps being repeated and keeps swelling the ranks and coffers of the real enemy. Don’t back the despots, when civilians need help, help them and make a few friends. So much damage has been done to America’s reputation in the Muslim world it may be a very long time before they start saluting the Stars and Stripes but lets try and at least get a few less burnt.If everyone was as nice as you undoubtedly are and shared your views, that would be a good wish. regrettably, I fear a good many in this world are not that nice.

I'd also submit that had the US not 'turned the other cheek' so very many times in bowing to international good will pressures in the past and had instead responded fairly and forcefully to provocations we would not have many of the problems that today exist in the world. the meek may inherit the Earth -- but there are a lot of un-meek folks out there who work mightily to preclude that...

[Tom Odom]

More grist for the Andes mill...

Colombia: Rebel documents talk of uranium offer (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/226/story/29416.html)
By Tyler Bridge and Jenny Carolina Gonzalez | Miami Herald

BOGOTA — A mysterious "Belisario'' offered to sell Colombian rebels uranium that could be used for a dirty bomb. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez feuded with Cuba. Chavez offered to move hostages held by the rebels to Venezuela — and hold them there.

That's just some of the content in 15 documents released Tuesday by Colombian police, who said they'd been found in the captured laptop of the rebel's No. 2 commander, Raul Reyes, who was killed Saturday when Colombian forces attacked his camp inside Ecuador.

[Watcher In The Middle]

First, Hugo's bully pulpit and blustering has more to do with the price of oil than almost anything else. Remember, spot oil jumped from right at $100 a Bbl. to right around $106.

The smart money in the oil markets are still saying that Venezuela's oil productions keeps decreasing (slight drops almost monthly), so Hugo's got to keep his cash inflows steady. He's doing what he's got to do to get the cash.

Problem is, it's a short term fix. But as to following through and taking on Columbia, not likely.

To show you how stupid it's gotten, Venezuela has just decreed that all Columbia-Venezuela order trade be curtailed (about $6 bil, give or take). Most of that $6 billion that Venezuela imports from Columbia is FOOD (http://www.tri-cityherald.com/917/story/109341.html)

Guy's a genius. He's going to starve his own people to get back at Columbia.

Second point, there's another player in all of this that few see. Just last month, Columbia & Israel signed a deal to (1) to update the 11 Kfir C7s to the C10 version and (2) acquire another 13 former Israeli Air Force Kfir C10s.

Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory)

Now, President Hugo has already allied himself with some fairly unsavory characters (from Israel's POV), and hey, guy gets stupid & comes across the Columbian border, who's to say that Hugo's pilots couldn't end up facing some pretty tough, first rate competition in the air (and I'm not talking from the US).

Just a few thoughts....

[Ken White]

w/ Israel also allegedly includes a (not mentioned publicly) used Airbus 330 rigged as a tanker with two Drogue pods. :D

That'll give the Kfirs enough reach to go places...

[Watcher In The Middle]

a certain small ME nation really looking forward to an opportunity to give a certain loudmouth SA bully type who's spent a lot of time talking smack about them at least a bloody nose, if not worse.

Force projection can sometimes work in mysterious ways (and come from mysterious places).....:D

[Ken White]

watch the benefits of single-mindedness in action... :wry:

[J Wolfsberger]

I was watching one of the news networks last night at the gym - closed caption. They showed film clips of the Venezuelan "Army." Typical leftist regime, ideological, revolutionary army - young, brand new uniforms, sloppy drill, etc. In addition, Chavez, being an idiot, sacked all his experienced officers (down to an unknown rank) and replaced them, presumably, if history is any guide, based on ideological purity.

On the other side, Columbia has a professional, well trained, experienced Army.

If Chavez is really stupid enough to start a war, I'll go on record predicting a one sided blood bath.

[Wildcat]

I'm with John. Colombia will wipe the proverbial floor with Venezuela. Chavez's air force may be sporting a few Su-30MKs, but I'm willing to bet Colombia's pilots are qualitatively better. And of course Colombia has the perennial battlefield advantage of fighting defensively on its home turf. They certainly won't be the aggressors in any case, so they have a definite leg up on Venezuela.

I've got a friend in Bogota who was my "liaison" while I was in Colombia doing research. He's an advisor to the House of Reps down there, and I've asked him to keep me informed about attitudes and perceptions at the local level. No word back from him yet, though. I think he's probably a little busy at the moment...

[Wildcat]

This is old news now, but the situation has cooled with an apology from Uribe. The good news is that we avoided a war and two FARC leaders have assumed room temperature. The OAS also proved itself useful in mediating the dispute. The bad news is that Chavez is still in power, and he successfully stood up to Uribe without much in the way of repercussions.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/world/americas/09colombia.html?_r=1&scp=7&sq=colombia&st=nyt&oref=slogin

After leaders in the Andes tiptoed from the edge of war to bear hugs and oaths of brotherhood, Latin America was trying to sort out the winners and losers in the region’s worst diplomatic dispute in years.

A day after the crisis was resolved at a summit meeting in the Dominican Republic on Friday, it was already clear that nearly all of the players lost something. The leaders of Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela traded charges that muddied each of them. Colombia and its ally, the United States, found themselves isolated in the region.

And Latin America’s largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, lost two senior commanders in a week, the latest in a string of tactical and strategic defeats.

But the biggest winner appears to have been the region itself, which resolved its own dispute without outside help and without violence.

Also this: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Venezuela-Colombia.html?scp=5&sq=colombia&st=nyt

[Ron Humphrey]

The bad news is that Chavez is still in power, and he successfully stood up to Uribe without much in the way of repercussions.


He may seem to have come out unscathed but one can only imagine what his military leaders think about his willingness to throw them to the wolves over ??.

Might be a bit but I don't think we've seen the last of reprucussions yet

[Watcher In The Middle]

Originally posted by Wildcat:
The bad news is that Chavez is still in power, and he successfully stood up to Uribe without much in the way of repercussions.

Yes, and no. Latest floating out there is that (a) the material coming out of the 2 notebooks "cannot be verified as authentic":rolleyes:, and (b) There's a flood of the material being pushed out in front of God and everybody, for all to see.:eek: Uribe has played this just beautifully.

Wait for it, there's even more to come. Some of the material is likely to be very sensitive, to some certain political figures back home here.

Hugo and his minions are working to spin the press like nonstop whirling dervishes, Correa [President, Ecuador] is trying to figure out a way to keep accommodating FARC without looking complicit with all the released email bombshells, and Uribe is sitting back and quietly laughing to himself.

Going to be fun to watch as it plays out.

[AdamG]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIF8qg5OEGjI&refer=worldwide

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow today to shop for air defense systems, submarines and other weaponry as Latin America's arms race quickens amid signs that his regional influence is waning.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 23 Jul 08: Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?
....President Chávez faces mounting pressure from not only the political opposition and student movement, but also his own support base, including social sectors that had been a fundamental pillar of his regime. Following a landslide re-election in December 2006, he sought to accelerate his “socialism of the XXIst century”, but his government was unable to cope with widening dissatisfaction caused by a project that increased concentration of power in his hands without improving the living standards of a majority of citizens and deteriorating public services, or reducing chronic food shortages, double-digit inflation or crime and government corruption. The result was defeat of the government’s sweeping constitutional reforms in the 2 December 2007 referendum.

The pro-Chávez camp is losing momentum. It has become bureaucratic, corruption is rampant, and its capacity to manage the country is poor. Regional and local grassroots are increasingly disappointed by the top-down style of the new PSUV party, which also is under mounting pressure from the smaller chavista groups. The struggle for political supremacy could further divide the pro-Chávez political and social elements, turning the 23 November 2008 municipal and state elections into a litmus test for the future of Chávez and his movement.....

[Watcher In The Middle]

Venezuela to host Russia navy exercise in Caribbean
Dated: Saturday; September 6, 2008

(Reuters) - Several Russian ships and 1,000 soldiers will take part in joint naval maneuvers with Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea later this year, exercises likely to increase diplomatic tensions with Washington, a pro-government newspaper reported on Saturday.

Quoting Venezuela's naval intelligence director, Salbarore Cammarata, the newspaper Vea said four Russian boats would visit Venezuelan waters from November 10 to 14.

Plans for the naval operations come at a time of heightened diplomatic tension and Cold War-style rhetoric between Moscow and the United States over the recent war in Georgia and plans for a U.S. missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland.

Link to Article (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0633952420080907?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true)

This should be a "sure thing" to re-start the debate over what actions the US should take. One thing it will accomplish in the American hemisphere is to re-start the entire Free Trade argument over the deal with Columbia, along with new arms shipments and additional military support for Columbia.

But more importantly, I could see this creating an impetus for new US arms exports of certain types of "defensive" weaponry to democratically inclined nations currently sharing a border with Russia. I wonder how much in current gen ATGM's could be purchased with a billion dollars or so?

[Ron Humphrey]

Link to Article (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0633952420080907?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true)

This should be a "sure thing" to re-start the debate over what actions the US should take. One thing it will accomplish in the American hemisphere is to re-start the entire Free Trade argument over the deal with Columbia, along with new arms shipments and additional military support for Columbia.

But more importantly, I could see this creating an impetus for new US arms exports of certain types of "defensive" weaponry to democratically inclined nations currently sharing a border with Russia. I wonder how much in current gen ATGM's could be purchased with a billion dollars or so?

I'm still kinda curious as to exactly how much of a threat Hugo is to anyone considering his own internal problems and as such these actions are simply good for exactly good enough reason for what you stated. Everyone else around him arming up. Not quite sure how that helps him in his mindset.

As to Russia sending ships there for exercises I'd think it might be somewhat of a bummer to those in the Russian navy.

Think about it :

On the one hand you could be training and taking part of large scale operations with some of the strongest and most potent Naval forces ever

or

Option number two -Go play with Chavez (I'd be willing to bet there are some very perturbed officers right about now)

[Watcher In The Middle]

On the one hand you could be training and taking part of large scale operations with some of the strongest and most potent Naval forces ever

or

Option number two -Go play with Chavez (I'd be willing to bet there are some very perturbed officers right about now)

I can just see those poor souls at attention on deck while Hugo is giving one of his usual multiple hour snoozers (and in those temps). I mean, the guy never knows when to shut up. He can literally talk so long that he makes Granite weep.

Btw, found an interesting answer to ATGM's you could buy with around a billion dollars:
Jan 10/07: RAFAEL and General Dynamics Santa Barbara Systems of Spain announce a $424.5 million contract with the Spanish Army for 2,600 SPIKE-LR missiles and 260 launchers missile systems. In addition to their anti-armor uses, their guidance system also allows the operator to target slow-flying aerial targets like helicopters and UAVs. The missiles will equip Spain’s land forces, including infantry, vehicles, and helicopters. Deliveries will take place from 2007-2014.

Link to Article (http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/spike-missiles-for-spain-04420/)

So, for probably around $900 mil (with inflation, but a quantity discount), you should be able to pick up around 5,200 missiles and 520 launchers.

[AdamG]

"Accident"
<pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>

MARACAY, Venezuela – A fire and a series of explosions tore through a military arms depot Sunday, killing one person and leading authorities to evacuate thousands of people.

About 10,000 residents fled their homes in areas up to several miles (kilometers) from the site as the burning ammunition produced powerful blasts, officials said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110130/ap_on_bi_ge/lt_venezuela_explosions;_ylt=AkEhcA2qJTYeo8K5d9c40 XlH2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMTNxc204aWh0BGFzc2V0Ay9zL2FwLzIwM TEwMTMwL2FwX29uX2JpX2dlL2x0X3ZlbmV6dWVsYV9leHBsb3N pb25zBGNjb2RlA21wX2VjXzhfMTAEY3BvcwM1BHBvcwM1BHNlY wN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZmlyZWV4cGxvc2lv

[Dayuhan]

"Accident"
<pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>


Might have actually been an accident.

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately be explained by stupidity... or incompetence.

[bourbon]

"Accident"
<pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>
Chavez got lucky post-9/11 with the War on Terrorism, the retired covert action / dirty tricks / Iran-Contra types were in demand elsewhere. Heck, I even read in the NYT last month that Dewey Clarridge is still running around, said he was throwing dirt on the Karzai’s.

[davidbfpo]

A short article by an ICG expert:http://www.opendemocracy.net/silke-pfeiffer/venezuela-violence-and-politics

I have read about the scale of violence and the police being brutal, but the details are new to me and alarming. So taking one paragraph:The former interior and justice minister Jesse Chacón recently claimed the government had inherited the problem from former administrations. Fair enough: when Hugo Chávez took over the presidency in 1999, homicide rates had already tripled over the previous decade. But what Chacón did not mention is that they almost quadrupled in the following twelve years, from 4,550 in 1998 to 17,600 in 2010.

This insight speaks volumes:The daily killings in Venezuelan cities so far do not seem to have significantly affected President Chávez’s popularity.

[Ray]

The daily killings in Venezuelan cities so far do not seem to have significantly affected President Chávez’s popularity.

Extraordinary!

What could be the reason?

[AdamG]

CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez said Wednesday that his navy detected a submarine in Venezuelan waters and that it quickly sped off.
The submarine was detected on Tuesday near the Venezuelan island of La Orchila in the Caribbean north of Caracas, where Venezuelan troops are participating in training drills near the island, Chavez told state television by telephone.
"It was pursued. It escaped because it's much faster than ours," Chavez said, referring to Venezuela's diesel-powered submarines. He said that judging by its speed and size, "it's a nuclear-powered submarine."
Chavez said his government was unable to say what nation might have sent the sub. "We can't accuse anyone," Chavez said, adding that his government is investigating.


Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/10/2495016/chavez-navy-detects-submarine.html#ixzz1dNRWyJ6s

[AdamG]

Venezuela is training a "guerrilla army" aiming to be a million strong by 2013 to fight off a possible US invasion, an opposition lawmaker said Sunday.

"Plan Sucre" -- apparently crafted with input from close ally and fellow US foe Cuba -- covers the legal, logistical and other angles necessary to "transform a professional army into a guerrilla army," Representative Maria Corina Machado told El Universal newspaper.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/venezuela-plans-guerrilla-army-against-us-invasion-225507615.html