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JWing
12-29-2015, 05:54 PM
Just wrote a review of how Ramadi fell back in May and then its recapture by the government forces That doesn't mark the end of the battle for the city however as other large problems are on the horizon to really secure the city. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-liberation-of-iraqs-ramadi-and-what.html).

JWing
01-04-2016, 03:21 PM
Just published my 102n interview for Musings On Iraq. I talked with Wladimir van Wilgenburg of the Jamestown Foundation about the political divisions within the Kurdish peshmerga. Here's a link to the interview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/iraqs-divided-kurds-political-divisions.html).

JWing
01-05-2016, 03:21 PM
New security report for 4th wk of Dec in Iraq just published. Goes over the capture of central Ramadi. IS's terror campaign in Baghdad. Harassing attacks in Diyala. New mini-offensive against the Kurds in the north, and another flare up in Tuz Kharmato. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/security-in-iraq-dec-22-28-2015.html).

JWing
01-11-2016, 03:20 PM
Did my monthly round up of violence in Iraq for December. Violence was down in the country at the end of the month, another sign that IS is largely on the defensive. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/violence-in-iraq-dec-2015.html).

davidbfpo
01-11-2016, 06:05 PM
Moderator's Note: A belated new thread for 2016. The 2015 thread had 213 posts and 32.7k views. For reference it is on:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=21576

There are separate, open threads for Syria and Watching ISIS.

This post will appear - briefly - as the first post as a small number of previous posts will be moved here.

JWing
01-12-2016, 03:21 PM
Interesting study by Mercy Corps. Did three public opinion polls in Iraq. Found that Sunni support for armed groups went from 49% in 2014 to 26% in 2015. Also interesting findings about sectarianism and how it doesn't play out way many westerners think. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/new-study-finds-marginalization-main.html).

davidbfpo
01-12-2016, 09:40 PM
Emma Sky reports on Ramadi after ISIS was expelled, it does not appear she has been there and relies on her contacts:http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/01/12/the-carcass-of-a-city-isis-left-behind.html

JWing
01-13-2016, 03:15 PM
Diyala got really ugly the last two days. First IS set off an IED then a car bomb to catch the crowd in Muqtadiya. Afterward the Hashd went on a wave of retaliatory attacks destroying homes, shops and mosques plus killed 10 Sunnis. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35290903

JWing
01-13-2016, 03:27 PM
Just published new security report for 1st wk of Jan for Iraq. Violence was up across the country. IS carried out counter-attacks in Anbar to try to make up for loss of Ramadi and offensive against Kurds in Ninewa continued. Also discovery of mass graves. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/security-in-iraq-jan-1-7-2016.html).

davidbfpo
01-14-2016, 08:40 AM
A rare first-hand report from the frontlines in Iraq. Quite long; a mix of civilians and fighters cited:http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/18/the-front-lines

JWing
01-14-2016, 03:19 PM
Just wrote article on the on going violence in Diyala's Muqtadiya. After IS set off 2 bombs in the city targeting a cafe frequented by the Hashd, the Hashd went off on 3 days of attacks on Sunnis destroying homes, shops mosques and killing 15 people. Hashd allegedly told Sunnis to leave the city or be killed. The first day this happened the security forces had a curfew and did not stop the attacks. Iraqi press has said little to nothing on the incidents & Baghdad not made any statements either. Diyala is under the political and security control of Badr's Hadi Ameri, likely why no one really saying anything. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/iraqs-diyala-province-explodes-in.html).

CrowBat
01-18-2016, 08:28 AM
'Oh wow'....

So, the essence of the last two of your reports, Joel, is
- we (the 'West') can keep on arming Kurds to the ceiling, but fact is they'll never go after the Daesh in Mosul, which means that all that armament for their 'president' and his forces are in vain...

- while the mass-murder and ethnic cleansing by the PMUs doesn't matter...

The only thing 'amazing' here is reaction of our glorious media and politicians: perhaps the West could deliver some more arms to the PMUs, IRGC etc,. so they can complete ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from Iraq?

...the only thing that remains really surprising is the stubborn refusal of our fantastic politicians to connect such affairs with the flow of refugees to the EU... but of course, it's much more interesting to keep on bitching about various local political parties and persons here - whether for chauvinism against or for lack of responsibility in regards of accepting millions that are arriving - than take care about the actual reason for this problem...

Red Rat
01-18-2016, 07:12 PM
Diyala got really ugly the last two days. First IS set off an IED then a car bomb to catch the crowd in Muqtadiya. Afterward the Hashd went on a wave of retaliatory attacks destroying homes, shops and mosques plus killed 10 Sunnis. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35290903

The attack appeared to be targeted against senior PMF figures.

ISIL seems to be trying to stoke sectarian tensions further as the tide of conventional war flows against it. Considering the political fragility of Iraq and the lack of money in Baghdad's coffers this is a very viable strategy. Politically and economically there is not much sign of a competitive offer to ISIL for Iraq's Sunnis emanating from Baghdad.

JWing
01-19-2016, 03:17 PM
The attack appeared to be targeted against senior PMF figures.

ISIL seems to be trying to stoke sectarian tensions further as the tide of conventional war flows against it. Considering the political fragility of Iraq and the lack of money in Baghdad's coffers this is a very viable strategy. Politically and economically there is not much sign of a competitive offer to ISIL for Iraq's Sunnis emanating from Baghdad.

Yes. IS returning to the high profile, headline grabbing type of attacks that it did pre-Mosul. It's been targeting Baghdad more and more all of last year as well to try to set off Shiite retaliations.

JWing
01-19-2016, 03:18 PM
New security report for Iraq for the 1st week of Jan 2016 is up. ISF continued push into Ramadi although churning through many of the same neighborhoods again. Covers high profile attacks by IS in Baghdad and Diyala. Plus IS winter offensive against Kurds appears to be ending. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/security-in-iraq-jan-8-14-2015_19.html).

Red Rat
01-19-2016, 04:28 PM
Good report.

The conflict in Iraq appears to be entering a new phase with ISIL on the operational defence and resorting to increasing use of asymmetric tactics. These tactics disrupt and delay the Iraqi Security Force offensive efforts as well as exacerbate an already fraught political climate between Sunni and Shia.

I think that Fallujah will remain stalemated for some time yet. From what I have seen only the CTS has demonstrated the ability to clear complex terrain and I have not seen any indications that there are CTS in Fallujah. The general tenor of Iraqi announcements on Fallujah seem to indicate that they are happy to contain the situation and let it wither on the vine.

JWing
01-19-2016, 08:25 PM
New security report for Iraq for the 1st week of Jan 2016 is up. ISF continued push into Ramadi although churning through many of the same neighborhoods again. Covers high profile attacks by IS in Baghdad and Diyala. Plus IS winter offensive against Kurds appears to be ending. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/security-in-iraq-jan-8-14-2015_19.html).

Sorry 2nd wk of Jan not 1st wk.

JWing
01-19-2016, 08:26 PM
Good report.

The conflict in Iraq appears to be entering a new phase with ISIL on the operational defence and resorting to increasing use of asymmetric tactics. These tactics disrupt and delay the Iraqi Security Force offensive efforts as well as exacerbate an already fraught political climate between Sunni and Shia.

I think that Fallujah will remain stalemated for some time yet. From what I have seen only the CTS has demonstrated the ability to clear complex terrain and I have not seen any indications that there are CTS in Fallujah. The general tenor of Iraqi announcements on Fallujah seem to indicate that they are happy to contain the situation and let it wither on the vine.

After Ramadi fell in May PM Abadi said that it would be taken immediately. The Hashd said they wanted to take Fallujah instead in part because IS released a video of them killing a soldier form Sadr City in Fallujah and to undermine Abadi. The Fallujah op went nowhere quick. Fallujah will eventually be taken but they need to clear out Ramadi first.

JWing
01-20-2016, 03:18 PM
Human Rights Watch recently released a report on the on going violence in Salahaddin's Tuz Kharmato that pits Shiite Turkmen in the Hashd versus the Kurds who are both vying for power over the district, with the Sunni Arabs in the middle. Have been a series of confrontations and fights between them. Here's a link to my review of the report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/human-rights-watch-documents-recent.html).

Red Rat
01-20-2016, 06:16 PM
After Ramadi fell in May PM Abadi said that it would be taken immediately. The Hashd said they wanted to take Fallujah instead in part because IS released a video of them killing a soldier form Sadr City in Fallujah and to undermine Abadi. The Fallujah op went nowhere quick. Fallujah will eventually be taken but they need to clear out Ramadi first.

The Hashd have proved incapable of clearing complex terrain without incurring large casualties or using egregious amounts of indirect fire. I cannot see that changing quickly.

I get no sense from Baghdad announcements and conjecture that Fallujah is high on anyone's agenda and I would be very surprised if more effort than is already the case (and that is minimal) is directed here.

JWing
01-25-2016, 03:17 PM
The Hashd have proved incapable of clearing complex terrain without incurring large casualties or using egregious amounts of indirect fire. I cannot see that changing quickly.

I get no sense from Baghdad announcements and conjecture that Fallujah is high on anyone's agenda and I would be very surprised if more effort than is already the case (and that is minimal) is directed here.

To the contrary, from what I've heard and seen the Hashd are using direct frontal attacks in most operations and are facing large casualties they just don't report them. They also use lots of indirect fire just like the Iraqi army on cities, but again, it doesn't get reported.

JWing
01-25-2016, 03:18 PM
Did a summary of the new Amnesty report on Kurds and Yazidis destroying towns and forced displacement of Arabs from Ninewa, Diyala and Kirkuk. Different motivations appear to be at work in different areas from security, to revenge to wanting to annex disputed areas. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/amnesty-report-on-kurdish-yazidi.html).

Red Rat
01-25-2016, 07:32 PM
To the contrary, from what I've heard and seen the Hashd are using direct frontal attacks in most operations and are facing large casualties they just don't report them. They also use lots of indirect fire just like the Iraqi army on cities, but again, it doesn't get reported.

That's not to the contrary - that's almost exactly what I said! :D

The Iraqi Army was always very fond of artillery and that has not changed as far as I can see. As in the Saddam era army, their ability to mass combat power quickly and decisively at the point of decision remains aspirational. The Iraqi Army preference is for steady "bite and hold" tactics at the tactical level and the "anaconda crush" at the operational level.

The Hashd will have improved since their blooding at Tikrit and Bayji, experience does that, but I see little evidence yet of Hezbollah level small unit proficiency.

JWing
01-26-2016, 03:19 PM
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq during the 3rd wk of Jan. Iraqi forces still moving east from Ramadi. City itself is pretty much cleared but suburbs are still highly contested. IS terrorist campaign in Baghdad picking up. More activity in Diyala. IS winter offensive versus Kurds pretty much over. Lots of fighting in Salahaddin as well. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/01/security-in-iraq-jan-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
02-01-2016, 03:25 PM
New weekly security report for Iraq is out. January has seen some of the heaviest violence since August. This is largely driven by IS counter attacks after it lost Ramadi. IS is also hitting the capital Baghdad hard along with growing crime due to the instability brought by the war. Full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/security-in-iraq-jan-22-28-2016.html).

JWing
02-04-2016, 03:19 PM
Jan had the most attacks and casualties in Iraq in five months. Was due to counter attacks by IS after it lost Ramadi. Here's the breakdown (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/violence-in-iraq-jan-2016.html).

JWing
02-09-2016, 03:19 PM
Violence has picked up in Iraq since the new year. That's driven by IS counter attacks in Anbar and to a lesser extent in Salahaddin after the loss of Ramadi. Anbar has been the group's major focus for over a year so Ramadi was a big hit for the group. Was also a report of a mass execution in Mosul and 3 SAS men being wounded in a recon op in Ninewa. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/security-in-iraq-feb-1-7-2016.html).

JWing
02-10-2016, 03:22 PM
Jan was a double IS bombing in Diyala's Muqtadiya that left more than 100 casualties. Afterwards Hashd elements carried out revenge attacks upon city's Sunnis. Was almost total news blackout in Iraq on events and then widespread denial over what happened. Amnesty and Human Rights Watch each released reports confirming that Badr and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq were being retaliatory violence. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/amnesty-human-rights-watch-confirm.html).

JWing
02-11-2016, 03:19 PM
Life has apparently returned to normal in Tikrit. Majority of population is back in the city they're going to work school etc. Dramatic turn around since after the area was retaken in March the Hashd and Sunni Jabouri tribe destroyed much of the buildings in the district in revenge for the IS massacre at Camp Speicher. Still over 100,000 not allowed to return because considered IS sympathizers. Here's the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/life-in-iraqs-tikrit-returns-to-normal.html).

JWing
02-16-2016, 03:25 PM
Just published a new interview for Musings On Iraq with Nathaniel Rabkin fo Inside Iraqi Politics. We talked about security behind the frontlines in Iraq, specifically Basra, Diyala, Baghdad, Salahaddin and the disputed territories. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/behind-frontlines-in-iraq-interview.html).

JWing
02-18-2016, 03:19 PM
Just published weekly security report for 2nd wk of Feb in Iraq. After a month and a half of heavy fighting in the country following loss of Ramadi IS seemed to call off its counter attacks. Had very low number of attacks and fewest deaths since 2013. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/security-in-iraq-feb-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
02-22-2016, 03:20 PM
Few days in Fallujah saw fighting between tribes and the Islamic State. Was it an uprising or a dispute between insurgent factions? Here's an article trying to explain it all (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/fallujah-tribal-revolt-or-insurgent.html).

JWing
02-23-2016, 03:15 PM
Head of Baghdad Operations Command not only said that the fake bomb detectors Iraq bought in 2007 actually work, but they will continue to be used at checkpoints until new equipment was bought. U.S. and British military, and maker of detectors have all said that devices don't work. they have no working parts inside and no power source, yet Iraqi officials unwilling to admit to it. Is because buying devices was full of payoffs and Iraqi elite cannot admit to wrong doing about graft. Here's the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/iraq-still-stands-behind-fake-bomb.html).

JWing
02-24-2016, 03:19 PM
Musings On Iraq counted over 51,000 casualties in Iraq in 2015. Far more than UN or Iraq Body Count. Here's the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/over-51000-casualties-in-iraq-in-2015.html).

JWing
02-25-2016, 03:20 PM
New security report for 3rd wk of Feb. Heavy fighting continued in Anbar. Baghdad seeing heavy terrorist attacks as usual. IS executing people in Kirkuk and Ninewa & attacking Kurdish positions in the latter. No successful car bombs reported. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/02/security-in-iraq-feb-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
02-26-2016, 04:38 AM
Great article in The Independent. Mosul intel chief found out about IS planned attack upon Mosul in Feb 2014 and repeatedly warned Baghdad right up until attack in June but was ignored by Maliki's office, Ninewa Operations Command, Ninewa provincial council, and others. Here's a link (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-in-iraq-the-fall-of-mosul-to-the-jihadists-was-less-of-a-surprise-to-baghdad-than-many-were-led-a6895896.html).

davidbfpo
02-29-2016, 09:23 PM
A short UK article via Defence in Depth blogsite, which ends with:
It is therefore probable that their main question has become whether to choose the national interests over their own.
Link: http://defenceindepth.co/2016/02/29/iraq-shia-militias-partners-or-contestants-of-iraqi-stability/

JWing
03-03-2016, 03:18 PM
New security report for last week of Feb. IS carried out two high profile attacks again. Since it no longer has capability of seizing territory in Iraq more of these types of operations are expected. Violence overall spiked in Iraq as well as IS carried out large number of attacks in Anbar plus executions in Hawija. Report of two chemical attacks upon Peshmerga in Ninewa as well. Full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/security-in-iraq-feb-22-29-2016.html).

JWing
03-07-2016, 03:22 PM
Published security report for February 2016. After a spike in violence in January due to IS counter attacks after the loss of Ramadi incidents and casualties went back down in February. Overall security incidents have been declining since start of 2015 showing that IS is on he defensive. Complete breakdown of security across Iraq. Here's the link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/violence-in-iraq-march-2016.html).

JWing
03-08-2016, 03:15 PM
US officials talking about early Mosul preparatory ops underway but actual assault on city may not start until 2017. Iraqi forces may not be ready, lots of territory to be cleared beforehand and Anbar ops can draw away forces, and most importantly plethora of political actors all want a share of the operation who do not agree with each other. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/preparations-for-mosul-underway-in-iraq.html).

JWing
03-10-2016, 03:19 PM
Violence was up across the board in 1st week of March in Iraq. Govt had several offensives going on in Anbar and another in Salahaddin. Check out the article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/security-in-iraq-march-1-7-2016.html).

JWing
03-14-2016, 02:18 PM
As IS loses ground in Iraq it is reverting back to being an insurgent/terrorist organization. Perfect example was recent raid upon Abu Ghraib in western Baghdad. While the attack upon an army base got the headlines it appeared the real purpose was to raid a silo and bring food back to Fallujah, which was where the attack originated from. For all the details read here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/islamic-states-raid-on-iraqs-abu-ghraib.html).

JWing
03-17-2016, 02:22 PM
New weekly security report for Iraq is out. Violence has dramatically escalated in March after it was going down the last few months. IS and Iraqi forces continue to be focused in Anbar. Baghdad most attacks in country as IS returning to terrorist attacks. IS also fired chemical rockets at Kurds in Kirkuk and Ninewa. Full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/security-in-iraq-march-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
03-18-2016, 02:16 PM
New paper by Dr. Michael Knights gives a breakdown of Iraq's forces along the frontlines. Check out the chart here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/distribution-of-iraqi-forces-along.html).

JWing
03-24-2016, 02:21 PM
New security report for Iraq during the 3rd week of March is out. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/security-in-iraq-mar-15-21-2016.html).

davidbfpo
03-25-2016, 05:37 PM
An optimistic report for once and one that shows Shia and Sunni can and do live together:http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2016/0321/Islamic-State-How-Iraqi-widow-s-resistance-became-a-symbol-of-hope?

JWing
03-28-2016, 03:48 PM
Just published my 104th interview for Musings On Iraq. I talked with ret COl Rick Welts who was a member of the Force Strategic Engagement Cell which was created during the Surge to reach out to Iraq's tribes insurgents and militias. The interview focuses upon how the U.S. tried to talk with Sadr and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and how Maliki used those two groups against each other. Here's a link to the interview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-unknown-story-of-us-outreach-to.html).

JWing
03-29-2016, 05:52 PM
US troops in Iraq has surpassed the official 3,800 and is now around 5,000. US also taking part in combat although unofficially like what happened in Makhmour camp in Ninewa. Here's an article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/us-expanding-military-role-in-iraq.html) on the US's expanded military role in Iraq.

JWing
03-30-2016, 05:29 PM
The Hashd don't officially announce their losses. The government is also censoring its casualties. Two recent articles might have given a hint at their losses. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/hint-at-hashd-al-shaabi-loses-in-iraq.html).

JWing
03-31-2016, 05:02 PM
New security report for 3rd week of March in Iraq is out. Iraqi govt still focused upon clearing out Anbar and started new campaign in Makhmour, Ninewa that was going slowly. IS is also carrying out more terrorist attacks as it is thrown on the defensive. Read the report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/security-in-iraq-mar-22-28-2016.html).

JWing
04-01-2016, 05:24 PM
When the Syrian civil war started in early 2011 the Assad govt was still backing the Iraqi insurgency. Anbar council said it caught insurgents crossing over from Syria with backing from Damascus. Syria started letting its nationals and Arabs go to Iraq in 2002 to fight US invasion and created ties with insurgents afterward. Read the full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/syria-still-had-ties-to-iraqs.html).

davidbfpo
04-02-2016, 11:49 AM
A first-hand report by a British journalist, although maybe too much PR it does have a few acute points - even if one wonders if true. I cite:
We haven’t got the weapons we need....All the support from Europe and the US goes through Baghdad, and the Iraqis don’t send any of it to us.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/31/levison-wood-on-the-kurdish-frontline-against-the-islamic-state/

I understood that the considerable German aid and the small UK donation had been flown their aid in direct.

Red Rat
04-02-2016, 06:14 PM
It's largely rubbish.

The Kurds are actively briefing against the Iraqis for a number of reasons. Are the Kurds short of weaponry? Yes, but the Iraqis are in exactly the same position as the Kurds and for largely the same reasons.

It is also worth pointing out that as well as donations the Kurds have received extensive training from the Coalition and even now Kurds are being trained and equipped to the same levels as the Iraqi army is by the Coalition.

CrowBat
04-03-2016, 05:46 AM
New paper by Dr. Michael Knights gives a breakdown of Iraq's forces along the frontlines. Check out the chart here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/03/distribution-of-iraqi-forces-along.html).
Thanks for that feature; Michael is great in researching this kind of details.

That said, operations of the Hashd are reaching new levels of absurdity: they should have over 100,000 under arms meanwhile, but according to that list only 19,200 of these are fighting the Daesh in Iraq.

...while there are at least 30,000 of them fighting in Syria...

JWing
04-05-2016, 02:20 PM
Thanks for that feature; Michael is great in researching this kind of details.

That said, operations of the Hashd are reaching new levels of absurdity: they should have over 100,000 under arms meanwhile, but according to that list only 19,200 of these are fighting the Daesh in Iraq.

...while there are at least 30,000 of them fighting in Syria...

Yeah, when the Iran-Russia Aleppo offensive started huge numbers of Hashd went to Syria. Plans to clear out the rest of Salahaddin for example got shelved as a result.

JWing
04-05-2016, 02:21 PM
Review of violence in Iraq overall in March and casualties. As IS loses territory it is rapidly transitioning back into insurgent-terrorist attacks. Main focus has shifted to attacking Baghdad and carrying out mass casualty-headline grabbing bombings. Here's the report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/violence-in-iraq-march-2016.html).

JWing
04-06-2016, 04:44 AM
Good article on Asaib Ahl Al-Haq's TV station run out of Iraq. http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/04/01/the-militia-in-the-living-room/

JWing
04-07-2016, 02:20 PM
Jurf al-Sakhr in northwest Babil was freed in Oct 2014. Since then no civilians have been allowed to return. Babil govt claims it's because there are still too many IEDs there. Actually political decision. Read about it here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/babil-government-still-not-allowing.html).

JWing
04-12-2016, 02:19 PM
New weekly security report for 1st week of April in Iraq is out. Looks like IS might be starting a spring offensive again. Iraqi forces continue to push through Anbar while other operations are a bit stalled. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/security-in-iraq-apr-1-7-2016.html).

davidbfpo
04-13-2016, 01:16 PM
Hat tip to WoTR for this report after a visit to the Peshmerga frontlines:http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/a-visit-to-the-frontlines-of-the-battle-against-isil/

They end with:
....the Peshmerga struck us as a force that was there to fight. They don’t need to be a mirror image of us in terms of weapons, culture, and tactics in order to help destroy ISIL. But if the United States does choose to provide them with munitions and equipment, it is vital that we understand the ways in which they differ.

Leaving aside how the Syrian Kurds appear to be using US supplies and fighting the FSA. Could this reversal happen in Iraqi Kurdistan?

JWing
04-13-2016, 02:23 PM
Article on what will become of the Hashd after the war with IS. Many of the pro-Iran factions want to go into politics, be like Hezbollah or Iranian Revolutionary Guard, no surprise as those are their patrons. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/what-will-become-of-iraqs-hashd-when.html).

JWing
04-13-2016, 05:11 PM
Hat tip to WoTR for this report after a visit to the Peshmerga frontlines:http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/a-visit-to-the-frontlines-of-the-battle-against-isil/

They end with:

Leaving aside how the Syrian Kurds appear to be using US supplies and fighting the FSA. Could this reversal happen in Iraqi Kurdistan?


What the article failed to bring up is the fact that the Kurds are not moving from their dug in positions. They have taken most of the disputed areas in northern Iraq and have no real interest to do anything else.

In response to the question, what the Kurds are thinking of is future fights with the Hashd over some of those disputed areas like the Khanaqin district in Diyala and Tuz Kharmatu in Salahaddin after the war with IS is over.

JWing
04-18-2016, 02:19 PM
New security report for 2nd week of April is out. Violence remained high in Iraq. Iraqi forces continued march through Anbar. New ops in Kirkuk and Ninewa. IS appears to be doing a mini-spring offensive, although not as big as previous years. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/security-in-iraq-apr-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
04-25-2016, 02:44 PM
Weekly security report for Apr 15-21 2016 in Iraq out. Attacks went down after 2 months of increases. Iraqi forces still churning through Anbar. IS counter attacking in Kirkuk & Ninewa. IS has reinfiltrated into Tikrit & Baiji in Salahaddin after they were freed. Feared spring offensive by IS may not have materialized. Read all the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/security-in-iraq-apr-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
04-26-2016, 02:50 PM
Ramadi was freed in Feb 2016. Same month political and religious leaders in Anbar started encouraging displaced to return even though it had not been cleared of IEDs. After over 100 casualties the Iraqi forces stopped people going back and now leaders are blaming each other over what happened. Read the full story here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/iraqs-ramadi-blows-up-on-returnees-and.html).

JWing
04-29-2016, 02:18 PM
3 years ago this month the Iraqi insurgency re-emerged after its nadir following the US Surge. The Baathist Naqshibandi ran the Hawija protest site in southern Kirkuk & hoped to provoke a confrontation with the Maliki govt that could be used to turn people to armed struggle. Maliki obliged when he sent the ISF to break up the camp. Afterward all the old militant groups picked up attacks and violence never went down and culminated in fall of Mosul and Tikrit a little over a year later in 2014. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/04/hawija-moment-iraqs-insurgency-was.html).

JWing
05-03-2016, 02:23 PM
Weekly security report for Iraqi just published. Surge in attacks 4th week of April plus renewed terrorist attacks point to a possible spring offensive by IS. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/security-in-iraq-apr-22-28-2016.html).

JWing
05-05-2016, 02:18 PM
Iraq complained about Syria supporting the insurgency and the Baath party all the way up to 2012 when Syria's own war had gotten underway. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/more-on-syrias-support-for-iraqs.html).

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2016, 03:55 PM
Assafir, quoting Khaled al-Quaysi, says IS's advances north of Mosul aren't part of its distraction tactics but a shift to offensive tactics.

Assafir focuses on the developments north of Mosul; Reuters focuses on the ones south of Mosul. Naturally different conclusions.

Different, interesting takes on the situation near Mosul:
Assafir
http://assafir.com/Article/1/491423 …

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2016, 04:00 PM
Dia al-Asadi of al-Ahrar bloc: Muqtada Sadr won't face pressure in Iran even if he stays there for 'half a century'.
http://www.alsumaria.tv/mobile/news/

How might the Sadrist movement be a positive force in the Iraqi political scene? Read @renadmansour & @mdc48cam:

In dysfunctional Iraq, calls for change gather pace
Hassan Hassan
May 1, 2016 Updated: May 1, 2016 05:00 PM

http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/in-dysfunctional-iraq-calls-for-change-gather-pace#full

JWing
05-09-2016, 02:29 PM
Review of violence in Iraq in April 2016. Attacks have been creeping up in 2016 compared to end of 2015. In part due to counterattacks to govt offensives in Anbar Ninewa & Kirkuk. Also due to new attacks by IS in Baghdad Diyala and south. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/violence-in-iraq-april-2016.html).

JWing
05-12-2016, 02:26 PM
IS in midst of Spring bombing campaign. 2 car bombs in Muthanna first of May yesterday's bombing in Baghdad highlight group's networks and ability to deliver bombs throughout country. Here's a link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/islamic-states-new-spring-bombing.html).

JWing
05-16-2016, 02:31 PM
Iraq is in the middle of the annual spring offensive by the Islamic State as seen by the number and types of attacks. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/security-in-iraq-may-1-7-2016.html).

JWing
05-19-2016, 02:24 PM
Islamic State's annual spring offensive in Iraq continuing with more mass casualty bombings. Read the full weekly security report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/security-in-iraq-may-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
05-20-2016, 02:33 PM
Baghdad is facing a new IS bombing campaign. Is in part inspired by group's loss of territory in Iraq so reverting to more insurgent and terrorist tactics. Is also annual spring offensive that has gone on since 2004. Read more details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/short-explanation-of-islamic-states.html).

JWing
05-23-2016, 02:26 PM
Long awaited Fallujah op started. Mix of special forces army federal police Anbar tribal fighters and Hashd. US supporting offensive if Hashd stay on perimeter. Only matter of time until city falls. Question is what will happen afterward. For more here's an article link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/new-effort-to-liberate-iraqs-fallujah.html).

JWing
05-24-2016, 02:24 PM
Islamic State's annual spring offensive continued into 3rd week of May. Although attacks down casualties remained high due to some large bombings. Read the article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/security-in-iraq-may-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
05-31-2016, 02:24 PM
Little historical article I wrote about the first battle of Fallujah which took place in 1941 during WW2 between a pro-Axis Iraqi govt and the British. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/05/iraqs-first-battle-of-fallujah-1941.html).

davidbfpo
05-31-2016, 05:12 PM
Joel,

A good reminder of how history can appear to repeat itself. The British inter-war experience in Iraq was far from pleasant; one unit was massacred, a Manchester Regiment battalion IIRC earlier than this battle.

One feature needs to be pointed out. Your refer to the 'levies', as the loyalty of local forces is now a "hot" topic, as is inter-communal strife.

In the inter-war period when the British used air control in Iraq, their bases needed to be defended and a locally recruited force, the iraq Levies, was formed:
After Iraq became a British Mandate, the force became a minority manned force of mostly, Iraqi Turkmen, Kurds and Assyrians who lived in the north of the country while the nascent Iraqi Army was manned by Arabs. Eventually it became mostly Assyrian manned and British officered force while it was used mostly for the guarding of the RAF bases in Iraq....The Assyrians were prized for their discipline, loyalty, bravery and fighting skills by the British.
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_Levies

JWing
06-01-2016, 02:23 PM
Thanks for the link on the levies.

JWing
06-01-2016, 02:24 PM
weekly security report for 4th week of May in Iraq out. IS's spring campaign continued but no mass casualty bombings. Main fighting in Anbar with Fallujah op while IS still hitting Baghdad. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/security-in-iraq-may-22-28-2016.html).

davidbfpo
06-03-2016, 08:17 PM
A comment by a RUSI expert in an Al-Jazeera report:
Why the Iraqi army, which is already getting air support from coalition partners, ground support ... from the US and some operational support from the Iranians, needs to use sectarian militias is a curious question.Link:https://rusi.org/in-the-news/what-success-would-look-fallujah

I cannot readily identify the report, but this story helps to explain:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/iraq-battle-fallujah-test-abadi-leadership-160601063735601.html

From my simple "armchair" position it is all politics.

Another RUSI expert in a podcast (2 mins) comments:https://rusi.org/multimedia/2016-battle-fallujah

davidbfpo
06-09-2016, 12:48 PM
Hat tip to a "lurker" for this Vice News film clip (30mins) 'Fighting the Islamic State with Iraq's Golden Division: The Road to Fallujah', which was filmed over weeks as they fought towards the city itself.

Accompanying text:https://news.vice.com/video/fighting-the-islamic-state-with-iraqs-golden-division-the-road-to-fallujah

Film only:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6axTxU30yo

A couple of comments. The only Iraqi officer with a speaking part, a major with ten years service, who comments there has to be more than a military defeat for ISIS. His orders after presumably incoming Shia militia mistreat locals, with words akin to "shoot them if they disobey". Then the reporter's comment how would the militia behave once the SOF leave?

As I recall this SOF unit is the only truly inter-communal formation left; with Shia, Sunni and Kurds fighting together.

Bill Moore
06-13-2016, 03:13 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6axTxU30yo

Fighting the Islamic State with Iraq’s Golden Division: The Road to Fallujah

A well done documentary by VICE on Iraqi Special Forces fighting their way back into Anbar province to take the town of Hit to isolate Fallujah. The Iraqi Special Forces are very professional, but unfortunately after liberating a couple of towns enroute to Hit they were followed by Shia Militia thugs to provide security (or looting). Both inspiring and disappointing.

davidbfpo
06-13-2016, 08:04 AM
My comments after watching three days ago.

A couple of comments. The only Iraqi officer with a speaking part, a major with ten years service, who comments there has to be more than a military defeat for ISIS. His orders after presumably incoming Shia militia mistreat locals, with words akin to "shoot them if they disobey". Then the reporter's comment how would the militia behave once the SOF leave?

As I recall this SOF unit is the only truly inter-communal formation left; with Shia, Sunni and Kurds fighting together.

JWing
06-14-2016, 02:59 PM
As the Iraqi forces are fighting to retake Fallujah important to remember how the city originally fell to the Islamic State. Here's a background piece (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/how-iraqs-fallujah-fell-to-islamic-state.html).

JWing
06-15-2016, 02:21 PM
New weekly security report out for Iraq in first week of June. Continued high violence due to IS spring offensive and counter attacks to government operations in Fallujah. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/security-in-iraq-june-1-7-2016.html).

JWing
06-16-2016, 04:15 PM
There are increasing reports of abuses by the Hashd taking part in the Fallujah op. Here's a recap of what's been found so far (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/abuses-of-iraqs-hashd-in-fallujah.html).

JWing
06-20-2016, 03:43 PM
Iraqi forces were able to penetrate into the middle of Fallujah in under a month. Took over two months to do the same in Ramadi. Better Iraqi forces and surprisingly weak defense by IS seem to be the cause. Read more here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/iraq-gains-big-victory-over-islamic.html).

JWing
06-22-2016, 05:38 PM
New security report for 2nd week of June in Iraq out now (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/security-in-iraq-june-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
06-28-2016, 05:33 PM
New weekly security report for Iraq out. IS continues with spring-Ramadan offensive. Govt finishing off Fallujah while starting new campaigns in Ninewa and Salahaddin. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/security-in-iraq-jun-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
06-29-2016, 04:43 PM
After the 2003 invasion Pres bush talked about his freedom agenda of transforming the entire Middle East starting with Iraq. At the same time the CIA wrote a report saying that the Iraq War would likely entrench Sunni Arab regimes in the Middle East. With hindsight looks like CIA was right. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/06/cia-iraq-invasion-would-only-embolden.html).

CrowBat
06-30-2016, 08:41 AM
This is bitter - at least for Oblabla & Co KG Gesmbh...

Last night, reports appeared (https://twitter.com/pmu_english/status/748323943304421376), according to which the Iraqi military in cooperation with the CJTF-OIR completely smashed a big Daesh convoy, destroying 170 vehicles and killing 'over 750' idiots.

This morning, at least according to Brig Gen (ret.) Ismael as-Sodani (https://twitter.com/IAlsodani/status/748350190424326145), former Iraqi Defence Attache in the USA, the 'fog of war' is clearing, but then in an entirely unexpected way.

Namely, according to as-Sodani, 'US denied last night's Iraqi JOPC air support request. Iraqi Army Aviation hit the convoy.'

Gauging by all the nonsense the various US intel- and military services are meanwhile creating in Syria and Iraq, I tend to 'believe' this, i.e. say: 'scratch CENTCOM's involvement in that operation' (complete destruction of the Daesh convoy).

JWing
07-01-2016, 04:47 PM
What actually happened in that incident is still not clear. I'm reading the early reports in the Iraqi press and they're all over the place and the number of vehicles destroyed and people killed quickly escalated. Will probably take a bit for things to clear up.

JWing
07-01-2016, 04:49 PM
Weekly security report for Iraq just out. Fallujah was declared fully cleared. Iraqi forces also re-clearing Ramadi and Baiji area due to IS re-infiltration, while new op started to try to free Shirqat in Salahaddin. Displaced from Fallujah also suffering humanitarian crisis. All the details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/07/security-in-iraq-jun-22-28-2016.html).

CrowBat
07-02-2016, 07:35 AM
The Origins of the PMUs (https://talisman-gate.com/2016/07/01/the-origins-of-the-pmus/)

The head of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Ameri, revealed a known secret a few days ago: the formation of the Popular Mobilization Units (aka al-hashd al-sha’abi, or sometimes ‘the Shia militias’) began several months ahead of Grand Ayatollah Sistani’s momentous fatwa on June 13, 2014 following the fall of Mosul. Ameri ‘corrected’ the record during a meeting between senior PMU leaders and Maliki on June 28.
...

Why is this important?

It’s important for two reasons:

- The weaknesses of the Iraqi Army were known to the Iraqi leadership months ahead of the debacle at Mosul. No tangible steps were taken to structurally address such concerns. The decision taken at the time was to build out new auxiliary forces, hence the PMUs.
...

- There may be some evidence that the US government had an early relationship with at least one PMU that was close to Suleimani, an organization that was cultivated and propped-up by his adjunct Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. That PMU is Jund al-Imam. See below for notes on this organization and the possible coordination it had with US forces. The Wall Street Journal once described it (during the Tikrit operation) as “US-backed”.
...

NOTES ON JUND AL-IMAM MILITIA:

-Headed by Ahmad Jasim Sabir al-Asadi (AKA Abu Ja’afar al-Asadi, b. 1971, Australian citizen). Official spokesman of the PMUs.

-Org first established by Mehdi Abdul-Mehdi al-Khalisi (AKA Abu Zainab al-Khalisi) in Iran in the early 1980s.

-Al-Khalisi was one of the founding members of Badr Corps; he is credited by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis with the idea of the creation of Badr. Al-Muhandis headed Badr in the mid-1980s until shortly before 2003. The US military arrested al-Khalisi in 2003 and released him in 2005. He died shortly afterwards; his lieutenants claim that the Americans injected him with cancer. They also assert that cadres of Jund al-Imam were targeted for assassination by the Americans.
...

-Jund al-Imam claims that they have thousands of fighters that constitute the 6th and 15th brigades of the PMUs. They take credit for destroying Saddam’s tomb in Auja, Tikrit, as well as securing the Speicher Air Base, which they have renamed Abu Zainab al-Khalisi Air Base. One credible source claims that they are responsible for burning down Albu Ajeel village to the east of Tikrit.

-There is plenty of circumstantial evidence that Jund al-Imam receives special attention and support from Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

-At the time of the Tikrit operation, the WSJ described Jund al-Imam as “US-backed”. See here (http://www.wsj.com/video/us-backed-shiite-militias-help-re-take-tikrit/B8B437DB-74C9-4333-B4B5-44FB981E36AC.html) and here (http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-iraq-militias-take-a-lead-in-tikrit-fight-1427936422).
...



In that sense, a particularly interesting study (and a recommended download), here:
The Shiite Jihad in Syria and Its Regional Effects (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-shiite-jihad-in-syria-and-its-regional-effects)

In 2012 and early 2013, media sources were widely reporting the imminent fall of Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime to Sunni rebel groups. But not long thereafter, it began to show resilience, holding off further rebel advances and even retaking lost ground.

This turnabout was fueled largely by Iran-backed Shiite proxy groups fighting on Assad's behalf. While these groups often invoked the defense of the Sayyeda Zainab shrine as their rallying cry, their influx into Syria was far from a spontaneous expression of Shiite unity. Indeed, it reflected instead a highly organized geostrategic and ideological effort by Iran to protect its Syrian ally and project power across the Middle East. When fighting spread to neighboring Iraq, many of the Iraq-based proxies regrouped across the border to defend their homeland against advances by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS).

The web of Iran-backed Shiite proxies is exceedingly complex, with much overlap and many changing aliases. In this new Institute study, Phillip Smyth -- a prominent blogger and University of Maryland researcher -- deftly navigates these many groups, exploring topics such as the narrative of pan-Shiite jihad, the range of Shiite clerical views on the jihad, recruitment techniques, and weapons used. His discussion compellingly shows why pursuing U.S. regional interests must involve targeting not only ISIS but also its Shiite adversaries.

CrowBat
07-02-2016, 07:39 AM
Why such studies might be 'important'?

Because of this: Our Military Campaign Against ISIS is Working, But... (http://nypost.com/2016/06/29/our-military-campaign-against-isis-is-working-but/)

...The American-led effort to defeat the Islamic State is yielding significant tactical and military results. But the campaign is deeply flawed: It’s being waged as if the politics can be worked out after the fall of ISIS’s statelet, and in the process providing ISIS the conditions that will ensure its revival.

Western air power is currently enabling ground forces regarded as illegitimate by many locals — the local branch of the PKK in Syria and Iranian-controlled Shi’a jihadi militias in Iraq, primarily — to take over territory from which ISIS has been cleared.

Already residents in Sunni cities like Mosul and Raqqa, including those who have paid a high price for anti-ISIS activity, have said that ISIS will gain significant support during an invasion by these forces, simply as a means of defending their homes, and afterward there will be political space for ISIS to present itself as the least-worst instrument for advancing local interests.

This sense of a US-enabled anti-Sunni campaign is also helping ISIS mobilize foreign sympathizers, who are called on to launch “defensive” terrorist attacks to punish those Ggovernments taking part in this “conspiracy against the Sunnis.”

Support to local, legitimate forces is the crucial missing component of the attempt to sustainably defeat IS. The tribal outreach of the Awakening in Iraq is a model for the necessary engagement.
...

Oblabla is going to manage an even bigger screw-up than Bush Jr...

JWing
07-05-2016, 06:06 PM
Good overview of what happened on the fleeing IS convoy from Fallujah area. Some questions are still unanswered. https://warisboring.com/iraqis-and-americans-butted-heads-over-the-isis-convoy-massacre-fd4ee9e243bb#.yqxil5arw

JWing
07-05-2016, 06:07 PM
Fallujah fell to Iraqi forces in just 5 weeks. Here's why (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/07/how-did-fallujah-fall-so-quickly-to.html).

JWing
07-06-2016, 04:22 PM
June 2016 most casualties in Iraq since 2014. Fighting for Fallujah and mass casualty bombings by IS causes. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/07/violence-in-iraq-june-2016.html).

CrowBat
07-06-2016, 09:10 PM
What actually happened in that incident is still not clear. I'm reading the early reports in the Iraqi press and they're all over the place and the number of vehicles destroyed and people killed quickly escalated. Will probably take a bit for things to clear up.
Here's an account based on exclusive interviews with several Iraqi Air Force and Army Aviation pilots:
Iraqis and Americans Butted Heads Over the ISIS ‘Convoy Massacre’ (https://warisboring.com/iraqis-and-americans-butted-heads-over-the-isis-convoy-massacre-fd4ee9e243bb#.lpkuuruw8)

OUTLAW 09
07-07-2016, 10:40 AM
Brilliant open source analysis on "Fallujah's convoys" attack by @trbrtc at @bellingcat.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/07/06/an-open-source-analysis-of-the-fallujah-convoy-massacres/ … …

OUTLAW 09
07-07-2016, 11:52 AM
Brilliant open source analysis on "Fallujah's convoys" attack by @trbrtc at @bellingcat.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/07/06/an-open-source-analysis-of-the-fallujah-convoy-massacres/ … …

Syrian NSA Bukumal offensive partially failed because all US air cover was diverted to attack the ISIS convoy outside Fallujah.

JWing
07-11-2016, 04:55 PM
Security report for 1st wk of July in Iraq up now. IS returning to mass casualty bombings, headline grabbing raids, re-infiltration into areas cleared by Iraqi forces. Read report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/07/security-in-iraq-jul-1-7-2016.html).

OUTLAW 09
07-12-2016, 11:39 AM
Ali Allawi: "#ISIS...were around...in the shadows in the 1990s...well, well before the #Iraq invasion."
https://youtu.be/9Ek9ZcOXR_A

I have been commenting often in SWJ that we were already facing when we arrived in Baghdad in 2003 a Phase Two guerrilla war being fought since the early 1990s by Iraqi Salafists in the underground against Saddam..and the forerunner of IS (QJBR) had been active inside Iraq from the early 2000 time frame onward...we just did not see it.....nor did we fully understand it.....

OUTLAW 09
07-12-2016, 06:07 PM
Syrian NSA Bukumal offensive partially failed because all US air cover was diverted to attack the ISIS convoy outside Fallujah.



Iraq Fallujah's convoy strikes involved 29 aircraft including B-52, A-10, F-15, F/A-18, Typhoons,1 MQ-1 + ( 2 MQ-9) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/07/12/inside-look-us-led-coalitons-deadliest-single-attack-isil/86947394/ …

JWing
07-12-2016, 07:21 PM
Ali Allawi: "#ISIS...were around...in the shadows in the 1990s...well, well before the #Iraq invasion."
https://youtu.be/9Ek9ZcOXR_A

I have been commenting often in SWJ that we were already facing when we arrived in Baghdad in 2003 a Phase Two guerrilla war being fought since the early 1990s by Iraqi Salafists in the underground against Saddam..and the forerunner of IS (QJBR) had been active inside Iraq from the early 2000 time frame onward...we just did not see it.....nor did we fully understand it.....

There were definitely Salafi networks in Iraq pre-03 and they did carry out some attacks, but they were no way a guerilla/insurgency movement.

JWing
07-12-2016, 07:22 PM
Security statistics for Iraq from 2014-2016, attacks, casualties, bombs, car bombs, suicide bombers. Raw numbers to be consumed (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/07/security-statistics-for-iraq-2014-2016.html).

JWing
07-17-2016, 10:44 PM
Here's everything out there about what happened with those Islamic State convoys that tried to make it out of Fallujah and got destroyed. Still many questions and contradictions. Link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.jp/2016/07/islamic-states-highway-of-death-in.html).

JWing
07-18-2016, 10:11 PM
Weekly security report for 2nd wk of July in Iraq out. IS's spring offensive is over. Iraqi forces made big gains in Ninewa. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.jp/2016/07/security-in-iraq-jul-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
07-27-2016, 07:04 PM
Weekly security report out for 3rd week of July. Another week of very few attacks as the Islamic State's spring campaign is over. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/07/security-in-iraq-july-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
08-01-2016, 04:12 PM
4th week of low level violence in Iraq following Islamic State's spring offensive. Read the report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/security-in-iraq-july-22-28-2016.html).

JWing
08-03-2016, 05:15 PM
Summary of violence in Iraq in July 2016. End of Islamic State's spring offensive led to big drop off in violence and casualties. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/violence-in-iraq-july-2016.html).

JWing
08-09-2016, 06:07 PM
7th straight week of very low violence in Iraq. IS's summer offensive over, group is trying to rebuild in rural areas, govt has no major offensives that cause counterattacks are causes. Read the full report here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/security-in-iraq-aug-1-7-2016.html).

JWing
08-16-2016, 07:54 PM
8th straight week of low level violence in Iraq. Iraqi forces also launched clearing operation in Khaidiya Island and army and Peshmerga attacked Qayara in southern Ninewa preparing for Mosul operation. Full article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/security-in-iraq-aug-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
08-22-2016, 03:00 PM
Violence has been steadily declining in Iraq in 2016. Full statistics and charts by province. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/declining-violence-in-iraq-jan-jul-2016.html).

JWing
08-24-2016, 03:18 PM
After 8 weeks of low level violence in Iraq number of attacks and casualties jumped 3rd wk of August. Was due to large increase in incidents in Baghdad. here's the full report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/security-in-iraq-aug-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
08-25-2016, 02:54 PM
Mosul may fall as quickly as Fallujah did. Issues that emerge afterward like control of city & Ninewa province, displaced, revenge killings, etc. will be difficult part. Here's article on it (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/will-iraqs-mosul-go-down-like-fallujah.html).

JWing
08-29-2016, 03:13 PM
Iraq doesn't have a Defense Minister anymore. Here's why (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/iraq-fires-its-defense-minister.html).

JWing
08-30-2016, 02:57 PM
More figures, states, charts, graphs and analysis of Iraqi security in 4th qtr of 2015. Was last big surge of Islamic State violence in country before decline in 2016. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/security-in-iraq-4th-qtr-2015.html).

JWing
08-31-2016, 03:01 PM
New weekly security report for Iraq out. Govt still clearing Ramadi-Fallujah corridor and making slow progress north towards Mosul. IS carrying out large executions trying to maintain control of areas and attacking Baghdad. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/08/security-in-iraq-aug-22-28-2016.html).

JWing
09-01-2016, 03:01 PM
Islamic State issued video trying to appeal to Kurds to join organization. Iraqi Kurdistan has legacy of Salafi jihadist groups since 1990s and a few hundred people from rural areas have joined IS over the years. Full details here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/islamic-states-appeal-to-iraqs-kurds.html).

JWing
09-05-2016, 03:01 PM
Review of violence in Iraq in August 2016. After steady decline attacks were back up in the month driven by more terrorist attacks in Baghdad, counter attacks to govt offensives Ninewa & Kirkuk and executions by Islamic State trying to maintain control over its last areas in Iraq. Here's link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.jp/2016/09/violence-in-iraq-august-2016.html).

JWing
09-08-2016, 06:39 PM
PM Abadi has continued PM Maliki's Syria policy letting Iraqis go fight there for Iran & Assad and offered to allow Russia to carry out air missions from Iran into Syria. Read the whole article here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/iraqs-prime-minister-abadi-continuing.html).

JWing
09-14-2016, 02:56 PM
Just did an interview with Naval Postgraduate School Asst Prof Afshon Ostovar on the history of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Iraq from its creation during the Iran-Iraq War up to the present war against the Islamic State. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/iranian-revolutionary-guards-history-in.html).

JWing
09-15-2016, 02:53 PM
New weekly security report out for 1st week of Sep 2016. Incidents dipped but casualties remained high in Iraq. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/security-in-iraq-sep-1-7-2016.html).

JWing
09-19-2016, 02:57 PM
New security report for 2nd week of Sep 2016 in Iraq. Violence remained at low level across country. Main focus of IS was terrorist attacks in Baghdad. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/security-in-iraq-sep-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
09-21-2016, 03:04 PM
Little blast from the past. For years while Maliki was PM of Iraq the govt's official death counts were far lower than anyone else tracking violence in the country. Many suspected this was on purpose. Now there's proof. Inspector General in Health Ministry who was from Maliki's Dawa party told Baghdad hospitals and morgues to cut their death counts in half in autumn 07 to make the prime minister look better. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/iraq-suppressed-deaths-to-make-pm.html).

AdamG
09-22-2016, 02:31 PM
The U.S. military is testing to see if a chemical agent may have been used in a rocket attack in Iraq by Islamic State that came within hundreds of yards (meters) of U.S. forces but injured no one, a U.S. military official said on Wednesday.
The rocket fell on Tuesday in an unpopulated area near the Qayyara West base, where hundreds of U.S. forces are working to prepare an airfield ahead of Iraq's offensive to retake the city of Mosul from the radical group Islamic State, said the official, who spoke with Pentagon reporters on condition of anonymity.
A group of U.S. forces inspected the fragments afterwards and took a small sample of a suspicious "tar-like, black, oily" substance, which initially tested positive for mustard agent but then tested negative in a subsequent examination, the official said. Further tests were underway. The incident was first reported by CNN.

As a precaution, they underwent routine decontamination procedures, including showers, but did not display symptoms that would typically show up within 12 hours of exposure

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-chemical-idUSKCN11R2RB

JWing
09-26-2016, 02:58 PM
Just posted new weekly security report in Iraq. Attacks have been creeping up in September, but still far below earlier in year when IS conducting spring offensive. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/security-in-iraq-sep-15-21-2016.html).

JWing
09-28-2016, 03:06 PM
Analysis of violence in Iraq in the 3rd quarter of 2015. Was a spike in violence across the country by the Islamic State before dipping in the winter. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/09/security-in-iraq-3rd-qtr-2015.html).

JWing
10-03-2016, 03:03 PM
Last week of September saw highest number of security incidents in Baghdad ever recorded by Musings On Iraq since 2014. Govt forces also finally took on Shirqat district, last section of Salahaddin still under IS control. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/security-in-iraq-sep-22-28-2016.html).

JWing
10-05-2016, 03:24 PM
Violence across Iraq increased each week of September, but by end of month was at same level as August. Link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/violence-in-iraq-sep-2016.html).

JWing
10-10-2016, 02:54 PM
New weekly security report for 1st week of Oct in Iraq out. Violence continues to fluctuate up and down. Iraqi forces trying to clear area from Ramadi to Hit in Anbar. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/security-in-iraq-oct-1-7-2016.html).

JWing
10-17-2016, 03:45 PM
New security report out for 2nd week of October in Iraq. Violence down across the country but terrorism staying steady in Baghdad. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/security-in-iraq-oct-8-14-2016.html).

JWing
10-18-2016, 03:35 PM
Overview of the political and military implications of new Mosul offensive and rundown of 1st days events. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-one-oct-16-2016.html).

JWing
10-19-2016, 03:37 PM
Everything you want to know about day 2 of the Mosul operation here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-two-oct-18-2016.html).

JWing
10-20-2016, 03:36 PM
Everything you want to know about Day 3 of Mosul operation here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-three-oct-19-2016.html).

davidbfpo
10-20-2016, 07:09 PM
Australian General Jim Molan has a short overview of Iraq as the attack on Mosul gains momentum:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/10/19/How-the-fight-for-Mosul-is-likely-to-play-out.aspx? (http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/10/19/How-the-fight-for-Mosul-is-likely-to-play-out.aspx?utm_source=Lowy+Interpreter&utm_campaign=696e5c298e-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_WEEKLY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eed7d14b56-696e5c298e-59375461)

On the regular military:
Our Australian trainers in Taji say they have been impressed (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/terror/aussie-troops-prepare-iraq-recruits-for-isis-onslaught/news-story/807a0221d4b065e1d6a11d4b576a9029) by with the Iraqis' willingness to learn, but again, when you are working from such a low base, any change is dramatic.

JWing
10-21-2016, 02:57 AM
Good article from War On The Rocks: After the Battle for Mosul, Get Ready for the Islamic State to Go Underground (http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/after-the-battle-for-mosul-get-ready-for-the-islamic-state-to-go-underground/)

JWing
10-21-2016, 02:50 PM
Overview of Day Four of Mosul campaign here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-four-oct-20-2016.html).

JWing
10-22-2016, 06:13 PM
Day five of Mosul campaign review here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-five-oct-21-2016.html).

JWing
10-23-2016, 04:40 PM
Review of day 6 of the Mosul campaign here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-six-oct-22-2016.html).

JWing
10-24-2016, 02:46 PM
Day seven in Mosul campaign events here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-seven-oct-23-2016.html).

JWing
10-25-2016, 03:41 PM
Mosul campaign day eight (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-eight-oct-24-2016.html) review.

JWing
10-26-2016, 02:54 PM
Day nine (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-nine-oct-25-2016.html) of Mosul operation.

JWing
10-27-2016, 03:03 PM
Mosul campaign day ten review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-ten-oct-26-2016.html).

JWing
10-28-2016, 02:56 PM
All you need to know about Day 11 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-eleven-oct-27-2016.html) of the Mosul campaign.

JWing
10-29-2016, 03:02 PM
Overview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-twelve-oct-28-2016.html) of Day 12 Mosul op.

JWing
10-30-2016, 03:36 PM
Review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-thirteen-oct-29-2016.html) of day 13 of the Mosul op.

JWing
10-31-2016, 03:57 PM
Everything you need to know about Day 14 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/10/mosul-campaign-day-fourteen-oct-30-2016.html) of the Mosul campaign.

davidbfpo
10-31-2016, 10:56 PM
A short ICSR commentary, whose title is 'Limits on the Iraqi Kurds’ Impact on the Battle for Mosul' and ends with:
In closing, the coalition’s offensive against Mosul is an unprecedented and vulnerable one. With the myriad of competing actors including Turkey, Iran, the Iraqi military, the Shi’ite Popular Mobilization Forces, the United States, Russia, and the peshmerga trying to shape the campaign, the coalition rests on unsteady foundations. Keeping the peshmerga’s divisions, goals, and limited capabilities in mind will help coalition forces better navigate the pivotal months ahead.
Link:http://icsr.info/2016/10/icsr-insight-limits-iraqi-kurds-impact-battle-mosul/

JWing
11-01-2016, 02:51 PM
Day 15 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-fifteen-oct-31-2016.html) of the Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-03-2016, 02:53 PM
Day 17 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-seventeen-nov-2-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. Eastern outskirts of city penetrated by Golden Div.

JWing
11-04-2016, 02:58 PM
Day 18 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-eighteen-nov-3-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-05-2016, 05:05 PM
Day 19 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-nineteen-nov-4-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-06-2016, 03:35 PM
Day 20 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-nov-5-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. More neighborhoods in eastern Mosul reached.

JWing
11-07-2016, 03:53 PM
Mosul campaign day 22 review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-one-nov-6-2016.html).

JWing
11-08-2016, 03:21 PM
Day 22 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-two-nov-7-2016.html)of Mosul Campaign. Mass grave found & US Apaches in small numbers deployed to knock out car bombs.

JWing
11-09-2016, 03:49 PM
Rundown of day 23 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-three-nov-8.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-10-2016, 04:41 PM
Day 24 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-four-nov-9.html) of Mosul campaign. Iraqi forces stuck in eastern Mosul more displaced.

JWing
11-11-2016, 05:40 PM
Day 25 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-five-nov-10.html)of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-12-2016, 05:42 PM
Day 26 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-six-nov-11.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-14-2016, 03:48 PM
Day 27 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-seven-nov-12.html) and Day 28 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-eight-nov-13.html) of Mosul Campaign.

JWing
11-15-2016, 03:47 PM
Day 29 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-twenty-nine-nov-14.html) of Mosul campaign rundown.

JWing
11-16-2016, 03:54 PM
Mosul campaign has entered Day 30. Review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-nov-15-2016.html) of events.

JWing
11-17-2016, 03:50 PM
Day 31 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-one-nov-16.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-18-2016, 03:50 PM
Mosul op has entered day 32 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-two-nov-17.html).

JWing
11-19-2016, 07:06 PM
Day 33 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-three-nov-18.html) rundown of Mosul op.

JWing
11-20-2016, 07:45 PM
Day 34 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-four-nov-19.html) of Mosul offensive.

JWing
11-21-2016, 08:46 PM
Day 35 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-five-nov-20.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-22-2016, 06:41 PM
36th day (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-six-nov-21.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-23-2016, 06:42 PM
Day 37 of Mosul campaign review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-seven-nov-22.html).

JWing
11-24-2016, 04:18 PM
38th Day (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-thirty-eight-nov-23.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-25-2016, 04:34 PM
Day 39 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-39-nov-24-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. Iraqi forces entered 36 areas of east Mosul, only 7 of which appear to be secured so far.

Azor
11-25-2016, 06:47 PM
Nicholas J. Kramer

Cited in part:
The campaign to retake Mosul is well underway with Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) consolidating gains in the eastern districts of the city. And despite stiff resistance and the potential for infighting among the anti-ISIL coalition, which ostensibly could stall the advance, the city will most likely be liberated by early 2017. So with ground forces making progress and Mosul’s fall certain, observers have turned their commentary to the day after the Iraqi flag flies again in its second largest city, and rightfully so. The politics of Ninewa province, frozen in time due to ISIL’s conquest, can begin in earnest once again. But irrespective of whether Mosul falls at the end of this year or early next, for better or for worse, it will be the policies of a new U.S. administration that will ultimately influence Iraq’s trajectory toward a more, or less, stable nation.

However, this simplistic telling misses key aspects of the Sahwa story, which then leads to ill-considered policies. For starters, the Sahwa was a bit more complex than the “tribal uprising” that we tend to depict. As the Sahwa movement spread outside of Anbar in 2007, it witnessed the integration of large numbers of former Sunni nationalist and Islamist insurgents who were under tremendous pressure from Shia militias and were fighting their own war with the Islamic State of Iraq. A comprehensive story of the Sahwa includes, at the very least, mention of the psychological effect on Sunni Arab calculus of this crushing sectarian civil war waged by Shia militias that had reached a peak in 2007. Knowing who filled the Sahwa’s ranks during this period and their intentions and allegiances when siding with U.S. forces is critical to understanding both how and which elements of the later Sahwa disintegrated and further explains Baghdad’s reactions. These are just some of the important nuances missing from the fuller story that should make us reconsider the legend.

A recently published book titled Confronting Al Qaeda: The Sunni Awakening and American Strategy in al Anbar is a good place to start for interrogating our understanding of the movement. In the book, Cottam and Huseby trace the factors that influenced the strategic choices by the majority of relevant actors of the Anbar Sahwa — tribal leaders, administration officials, and military leaders alike — from the beginning of the Iraq War through the formation of the Anbar Sahwa and finally the withdrawal of U.S. forces. After all, Anbar was critical to the larger movement as its birthplace and the inspiration for what spread to other Sunni areas like Babil, Diyala, and Salahuddin provinces, as well as Baghdad.



http://warontherocks.com/2016/11/waking-up-to-the-truth-about-the-sunni-awakening/

Bob's World
11-26-2016, 02:44 PM
War logic and warfare solutions work to resolve war. But this a revolutionary conflict that has evolved to a war stage (phase 3, decision in the Maoist model). A military "defeat" of phase 3, and the accompanying re-taking of cities or territory secured by the revolutionary does not "win" the contest - it merely converts it back into a less organized phase of revolution.

Where is the clearly communicated viable political solution for the Sunni Arabs to turn to once the ISIL solution is denied? A return to the political solution for Iraq we created as our answer for that people and space? A removal of Assad and the advancing of some similar Western solution for Syria? The failure of those inappropriate and inherently illegitimate political solutions are what fueled these revolutions to begin with.

Where is the clearly communicated plan to limit Iranian influence in the region and to restore a stable line of competition / spheres of influence for the Saudis, Turks and Iranians?

Where is the reconciliation program and prisoner's dilemma designed to fracture ISIL leadership and offer the reasonable currently fighting under that radical flag a trusted means to come in from the proverbial cold?

I see no strategy, only tactics. This story does not end soon or well as currently pursued, irregardless of what ultimately happens in Mosul.

JWing
11-26-2016, 08:07 PM
Day 40 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-40-nov-25-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-27-2016, 04:13 PM
Day 41 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-41-nov-26-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
11-28-2016, 03:57 PM
Mosul campaign has entered Day 42 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-41-nov-26-2016_28.html).

JWing
11-29-2016, 03:53 PM
Northern and southern thrusts on Mosul have stalled, change in campaign plan coming. Read about it in review of operation Day 43 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-43-nov-28-2016.html).

JWing
11-30-2016, 03:54 PM
Day 44 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/11/mosul-campaign-day-44-nov-29-2016.html) of Mosul Campaign.

davidbfpo
11-30-2016, 06:04 PM
Joel,

Does the Iraqi state have enough trained manpower for a long "meat grinder" battle for Mosul?

I assume from faraway that the Iraqi state would prefer not to use the Popular Militias.

Given what has happened in Libya, in the battle for Sirte IIRC, it has taken a very long time to dislodge ISIS (a Post does refer to this on the Libya thread).

davidbfpo
11-30-2016, 06:39 PM
CTC's Sentinel has a long article by CNN's Tim Lister on the attack on Mosul:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-mosul-campaign-from-here-to-the-horizon

JWing
12-01-2016, 03:52 PM
Some Iraqi officers have started grumbling that political pressure led them to enter east Mosul without support. Also western, northern and southern fronts behind schedule and/or stalled. Read the summary here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-45-nov-30-2016.html).

JWing
12-02-2016, 04:01 PM
8,280 casualties in Iraq in November, most since June 2014 when IS swept through northern and central Iraq. Read about it here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/4360-dead-3920-wounded-in-iraq-november.html).

Azor
12-02-2016, 07:24 PM
8,280 casualties in Iraq in November, most since June 2014 when IS swept through northern and central Iraq. Read about it here (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/4360-dead-3920-wounded-in-iraq-november.html).

Wars always seem to produce the most casualties during the initial and final phases.

Remember when the Confederacy and the Third Reich knew that they were losing? Well, it didn't prevent them from fighting like demons to the end...

Red Rat
12-02-2016, 10:39 PM
The question should be "Does the Iraqi State have sufficient CTS for a long "meat grinder" battle for Mosul?"

In Baiji, Ramadi and Fallujah the CTS (ISOF) did the breach and initial clear, other forces did the conform and hold element. In Mosul at the moment the CTS is the force currently engaged in active offensive operations within Mosul. If the CTS culminates before ISIL forces in Mosul culminate, then the Iraqi campaign in Mosul is likely to culminate.

CTS are a limited resource and take a comparatively long time to generate (6+ months for a CTS operator). There are other forces available, but they have not shown themselves as effective (although the Federal Police Emergency Response Division has some capable units and some Iraqi Army units performed well in Fallujah). The Hashd are a lesser known quality but after their experiences in Syria, Tikrit and Baiji are likely to have a degree of competence as well. Regardless of their competence they are not as competent as the CTS and so committal would very likely see a rise in Iraqi casualties rates as well as an increase in collateral damage.

Then there are the political implications. Baghdad would prefer not to have the Hashd (Popular Militias) or Peshmerga committed into Mosul proper for a variety of political and practical purposes. Not only would their presence be unhelpful in assuaging Sunni fears, they might change to ethnic (a blunt term, but one that will suffice) balance or footprint on the ground and their use would enable them politically - at the expense of Abadi's government.



Joel,

Does the Iraqi state have enough trained manpower for a long "meat grinder" battle for Mosul?

I assume from faraway that the Iraqi state would prefer not to use the Popular Militias.

Given what has happened in Libya, in the battle for Sirte IIRC, it has taken a very long time to dislodge ISIS (a Post does refer to this on the Libya thread).

JWing
12-02-2016, 10:42 PM
Review of Day 46 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-46-dec-1-2016.html) of Mosul Campaign.

JWing
12-03-2016, 10:01 PM
Day 47 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-47-dec-2-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-03-2016, 10:02 PM
Agree with what RR said, but it's not just the Golden Division going through Mosul right now. It doesn't have the manpower to do that. They've been joined by elements of the 9th and 15th Divisions as well. More forces will probably be shifted there as well because the northern and southern fronts are completely stalled.

JWing
12-04-2016, 05:51 PM
Day 48 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-48-dec-3-2016.html) of Mosul campaign review.

JWing
12-05-2016, 03:54 PM
Review of Day 49 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-49-dec-4-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-06-2016, 03:52 PM
Day 50 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.jp/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-50-dec-5-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-07-2016, 03:52 PM
Day 51 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-51-dec-6-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-08-2016, 03:53 PM
Review of Day 52 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-52-dec-7-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-09-2016, 03:58 PM
Day 53 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-53-dec-8-2016.html) of Mosul operation.

JWing
12-10-2016, 01:21 AM
Important read. Iraqi intel officers say they have deal with Pres. Assad to fight IS in Syria after Mosul freed and want to bomb Raqqa.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iraq-prepares-fight-post-mosul-44080169

JWing
12-10-2016, 06:59 PM
Day 54 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-54-dec-9-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-11-2016, 04:54 PM
Day 55 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-55-dec-10-2016.html) of Mosul offensive.

JWing
12-12-2016, 03:57 PM
Day 56 of Mosul campaign review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-56-dec-11-2016.html).

JWing
12-13-2016, 03:55 PM
Day 57 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-57-dec-12-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-14-2016, 04:00 PM
Day 58 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-58-dec-13-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-15-2016, 03:57 PM
Day 59 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-59-dec-14-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-16-2016, 03:59 PM
60th day (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-60-dec-15-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-17-2016, 04:54 PM
Day 61 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-61-dec-16-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-18-2016, 06:18 PM
Day 62 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-61-dec-16-2016_18.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-19-2016, 05:28 PM
Day 63 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-63-dec-18-2016.html) of Mosul operation.

JWing
12-20-2016, 10:57 PM
Day 64 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-64-dec-19-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-21-2016, 05:32 PM
Day 65 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-65-dec-20-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. Campaign is in a pause as well as total stall on south, north and west.

SWJ Blog
12-22-2016, 06:54 AM
The Iraqi Military, The US-led Coalition and the Mosul Operation: The Risk of Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-iraqi-military-the-us-led-coalition-and-the-mosul-operation-the-risk-of-snatching-defea)


Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-iraqi-military-the-us-led-coalition-and-the-mosul-operation-the-risk-of-snatching-defea) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).

JWing
12-22-2016, 06:21 PM
Day 66 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-66-dec-21-2016.html) of Mosul Campaign. It's now stalled on all fronts.

JWing
12-24-2016, 01:08 AM
Day 67 of Mosul campaign review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-67-dec-22-2016.html).

JWing
12-24-2016, 06:33 PM
Day 68 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-68-dec-23-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. 4153 dead and 7908 reported wounded so far in Ninewa since start of operation.

JWing
12-25-2016, 05:36 PM
Day 69 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-69-dec-24-2016.html)of Mosul Campaign.

JWing
12-26-2016, 05:56 PM
Day 70 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-70-dec-25-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. Golden Division started up ops again for first time in almost a week.

JWing
12-27-2016, 05:06 PM
Day 71 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-71-dec-26-2016.html) of Mosul Campaign. US advisers may be deployed inside Mosul itself during new push on city.

JWing
12-28-2016, 06:14 PM
Day 72 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-72-dec-27-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. Commanders still talking about next phase of campaign but operations have already restarted.

JWing
12-29-2016, 07:36 PM
Day 72 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-73-dec-28-2016.html) of Mosul campaign.

JWing
12-30-2016, 04:09 PM
Day 74 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2016/12/mosul-campaign-day-74-dec-29-2016.html) of Mosul campaign. Operations officially restarted although they actually got underway Dec 24.