RAnd's "Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences"

[kaur]

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2007/RAND_MG483.pdf

[Jedburgh]

Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2007/RAND_MG483.pdf)
Thanks, another interesting pub from RAND.

...The goal of this investigation is to assess on what basis al Qaeda would select targets within the United States. Four hypotheses have been considered. The coercion hypothesis posits that acts of terrorism would be designed to cause pain and thereby influence U.S. foreign policy. The damage hypothesis posits that they are designed to hurt the U.S. economy and thereby reduce the means available to support U.S. foreign policy. The rally hypothesis posits that such acts are meant to rally support in the Muslim world. The franchise hypothesis assumes that al Qaeda has limits on its ability to direct terrorist acts and, instead, supports such acts carried out by like-minded terrorists. This study tested these hypotheses by examining major terrorist events (associated with al Qaeda) over the last dozen years, looking at al Qaeda writings, and soliciting the informed judgment of experts....
In the end, this paper reads like the trio of academics had no real depth of subject matter expertise, figured they could get all they needed from disparate writings and "expert" advice, attempted to box the topic and ended up frustrated. I've seen much better come out of RAND.

[Merv Benson]

I think al Qaeda target selection is usually based on a corporal punishment mindset. Consider how the Islamist like al Qaeda apply Shari'a law with its whippings and amputations in order to change conduct of perceived misbehaviors. That appears to be the logic behind most of their "well planned" attacks. It is their intention to keep punishing behavior until the behavior is changed or one side is destroyed.

[slapout9]

There was a really good segment on 60 minutes last night about terrorism and the INTERNET. A general from CENTCOM in charge of INTEL said that terrorist groups often conduct attacks just so they can film them and put them out on the web or CD's. This is why some of the attacks can appear with out motive. The motive is to get good film shots!! It was a good story for 60 minutes.

[Jedburgh]

CNS, 17 Apr 07: From the Horse's Mouth: Unraveling Al-Qa`ida's Target Selection Calculus (http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/070417.htm)

The topic of al-Qa`ida's choice of targets has been the subject of much conjecture and speculation in open source literature. Some analysts argue that al-Qa`ida's modus operandi is similar to traditional terrorism in that it is a form of "political theater" meant to bring attention to the group and its objectives by attacking targets of high importance. Others have diverged from this view, arguing that unlike traditional terror organizations, the al-Qa`ida network is more interested in the mass killing of Western civilians as revenge for perceived historical injustices against Muslims. In some cases, the debate concerning al-Qa`ida's target selection is based on the assumption that al-Qa`ida targets symbolic facilities within the United States to demonstrate its military prowess and long-reach capability. Others argue that al-Qa`ida attacks soft targets due to the difficulty of attacking military and security facilities in the West. Yet an examination of primary al-Qa`ida operational manuals and published open source literature reveals a much different set of considerations in the group's target selection. Such an analysis of what al-Qa`ida tells the world—and, most importantly, what it instructs its recruits and would-be cell members—indicates that al-Qa`ida's target selection calculus is motivated by a far more ambitious, sophisticated and sinister motive: to destroy the economy of the United States and other Western powers by striking economic targets in the West and in the Muslim world. The network asserts that doing so curtails the American presence and influence in the Middle East and will end Western military and diplomatic support to regimes in the region. This ambition serves the final objective of severing American and Muslim alliances and bringing about the removal of all Western influence from the Middle East, as well as the overthrow of current Muslim regimes.....

[Jedburgh]

Another one from RAND: Economically Targeted Terrorism: A Review of the Literature and a Framework for Considering Defensive Approaches (http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2007/RAND_TR476.pdf)

Though attention on the threat of terrorism frequently focuses on the deaths and injuries caused in terrorist attacks, acts of violence can also cause economic harm. Since September 11, 2001, al Qaeda leaders have singled out the U.S. economy as a target for attack. Though prominent in contemporary terrorism, economic targeting is not a new phenomenon. Terrorist groups with very different goals from al Qaeda’s—such as the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) in Northern Ireland and England—have used economic coercion and damage as elements of their campaigns for many years. By exploring these past cases and building a framework identifying the costs of terrorism and their drivers, this report provides a basis for crafting effective defensive strategies for nations whose economies terrorist groups target....

[Jedburgh]

This RAND pub is the companion volume to the one at the top of the thread: Freedom and Information: Assessing Publicly Available Data Regarding U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Security (http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2007/RAND_TR360.pdf)

The goal of this investigation was to determine how much data regarding U.S. anti- and counterterrorism systems, countermeasures, and defenses are publicly available and could be found by individuals seeking to harm U.S. domestic interests. The study focused on information that would be freely accessible through Web search and review of library materials. To obtain a reasonably detailed picture of the available information while still covering a range of possible scenarios, researchers examined six different hypothetical terrorist operations involving three categories of transportation infrastructure: air, rail, and maritime. The research team also developed a framework for comparing the amount of information that is publicly available across different terror attack scenarios and infrastructure targets....

[Abu Buckwheat]

I think al Qaeda target selection is usually based on a corporal punishment mindset. Consider how the Islamist like al Qaeda apply Shari'a law with its whippings and amputations in order to change conduct of perceived misbehaviors. That appears to be the logic behind most of their "well planned" attacks. It is their intention to keep punishing behavior until the behavior is changed or one side is destroyed.

This may be so close to the truth. Sammy Salama's report from CNS is a good one however the calculus has changed over the years from generation to generation (there are presently 4 generations of operatives which will be my PhD Thesis). I have been studying AQ and Jihadi targeting since 1993 and simulated their attacks for four years ... we have to break apart the two groups objectives - those of AQ Corporate HQ which has conducted very strategic attacks with a combination of Rally and Coercion effects ... but also in the traditional vein of splashing it across world media for a traditional Fear effect. Next was those of the radicalized Jihadis ... most of their target sets come from trying to adhere to strategic doctrine of AQ-Corporate but hitting spectacular targets which they knew well locally (e.g. AQ of the Arabian Peninsula going after ex-pat compounds). I think the economic impact of all but a couple of attacks (9/11 and the Damam oil refinery) really doesn't appear to be sexy enough for many of their operatives. As for AQI they attack wherever they find US soldiers ... the effect is Kill-Punishment. I just came out of the desert and will write more after I read the Rand report.