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OUTLAW 09
06-04-2016, 06:37 PM
Russian shelling's on again tonight.....

21:05 #Avdiivka @GirkinGirkin in the area of #Promka 2 vehicles are on fire, black smoke, 2 fire sources [UA ones or RU came too close?]

21:14 #Horlivka @NovaGorlivka #Zaytseve: ongoing serious battle along all frontline...

21:12 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza direction of #Yasynuvata #GAI_post: much black smoke, lots of.

20:15 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] they start to shoot a bit in the direction of #boarding school

21:00 #Avdiivka @GirkinGirkin #Promka black smoke pours in

20:40 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij "orcs continue this not boring evening with heavy rounds w/recoils. Far off, direction unclear, N or NW

20:33 #Novhorodske @subwayriwer Booms come from the direction of #Horlivka. Increasingly...

OUTLAW 09
06-04-2016, 06:51 PM
http://www.stopfake.org/en/paul-goble-15-characteristics-of-russian-propaganda/

Paul Goble: 15 Characteristics of Russian Propaganda

April 18, 2016 - 16:53 


Russian propaganda makes use of so many techniques to succeed that Moscow novelist and commentator Elizaveta Aleksandrova-Zorina performs a useful service by listing in an article in “Gazeta.ru” 15 of its favorite and, it should be said, effective methods (gazeta.ru/comments/2016/04/14_a_8178095.shtml).

These include:

–A black and white division of the world into “ours” and the “alien” other;

–Epithets that imply more than they describe;

–Constant assertions that those supporting Putin not only are numerous but united;

–Empty declarations that mean nothing but that appear to promise or justify everything;

–Playing games with cause and effect, often reversing their true order;

–A vicious circle or tautology in which the second part of an assertion is simply a repetition of the first;

–Confusing the part and the whole by focusing on only one part of something such as liberals within the opposition;

–Creating false dilemmas that don’t exist;

–Careful preparation of headlines which are the only thing most people pay attention to;

–Citations to experts, often false and even more often out of context;

–Claiming the media say when in fact only one media outlet does;

–Using weasel words like “so-called” or “it would appear” to give the appearance of objectivity;

–Outright falsification; and

–Conspiracy theories and suggestion of hidden motives.

OUTLAW 09
06-04-2016, 06:52 PM
12:08 #Luhansk @Edward_Lugansk the 3rd day in a row, orcs move columns via #Luhansk tow/#Schastya,

Russian terrorist Motorola reportedly wounded in #Ukraine, taken to #Russia for treatment. "Civil war"? Def not.

Cruel irony...
#Ukraine's soldiers die for European values while some #EU members back lifting #Russia sanctions...

Dokuchaevsk @shuttle1907 [unconfirmed] in the area of #Dokuchaevsk, Russians destroyed another #OSCE drone

OUTLAW 09
06-04-2016, 07:59 PM
Reference Russian shot down of MH17.............

"The JIT is still waiting for information from Russian Federation about BUK installations."

JIT will present first results MH17 after the summer
http://bit.ly/20Xk9Eq

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 07:26 AM
Russian shelling's were heavy all night long....just an example....

02:16 #Donetsk #railway station @TaylerRid Mortar again. Closer. Probably, RU shell a series then pull it deep inside the city

02:43 #Donetsk @Donetsk_Ukraine Hell, panes vibrate. what do they use? Very strongly
@donetskye artillery, probably D-30

02:44 #Donetsk @roots_exp Damn, they really p*ss me off. Some f*ckheads are pounding. Having fired 10 rounds they pause for 5-10min & resume

02:41 #Donetsk @donetskye [outgoing] salvos from former Donetsk coke plant, #Smolyanka. 5 or 6 of 122mm

02:39 #Krasnohorivka @Huyovyi_Kolhoz Separs' SPG in pounding. 3-5 rounds and change of position...

Russian terrorists hit a civilian house in #Nikolaevka with 120mm mortar from #Dokuchaevsk direction
https://twitter.com/Price_Cap_UA/status/739344190086254592 …

Dense outgoing artillery fire fr/#Donetsk at Pisky, Krasnohorivka area etc.
For~week DNR gathers signatures for the UN against UA. #Vodka

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 07:28 AM
Turkey sending "Little Green Men" to Syria, China using "fishermen" in camo uniforms to harass other ships, Trump campaign going full Russia Today...

.@realDonaldTrump seems to have borrowed a page from the Russian propagandist playbook: fake "facts," spread disinfo
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/739201723131146241

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 07:32 AM
#Russia is back with 19th-century goals & 21st-century means: President @IlvesToomas
http://www.rep-am.com/articles/2016/06/05/commentary/960439.txt …

China and Russia agree to oppose new missile defence systems in South Korea, Romania and Poland. A new source of friction coming. #SLD16

Noticeable that Russia Dep DefMin Antonov said nothing about freedom of navigation, international law or South China Sea. #SLD16

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 07:39 AM
My #Debaltseve onthe ground battle reminder for #NATO forces on Russian covert offensive tactics. Learn & be ready.
https://viktorkovalenko.wordpress.com/2015/05/10/debaltseve-diary-part-9-separatists-ultimatum-by-radio/ …

Kyiv police have found an arsenal of weapons and explosives in one of private garages in Podil district of the city.
http://ln.is/www.unian.info/kiev/YYRFq …

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 07:45 AM
http://www.rferl.org/content/unraveling-moscow-novorossia-dream/27772641.html?ltflags=mailer

The Unraveling Of Moscow's 'Novorossia' Dream

By Sergei Loiko

June 01, 2016


The Kremlin’s project to create “Novorossia” in southern and eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea was conducted in secrecy and haste in the first months of 2014.

Details of how that project rose and ultimately fell have been hard to come by. But Aleksandr, a Moscow businessman who asked that his identity not be revealed, had a front-row seat as an insider in Crimea and agreed to tell RFE/RL what became of the dream he still cherishes, despite the disenchantment of his months in Crimea.

“Russia lost its chance to create any ‘Novorossia’ on July 17 [2014], when the passenger airliner was shot down over territory held by the militants,” Aleksandr said during a recent interview in Moscow, in reference to the downing of Flight MH17 by a Russian-made, surface-to-air missile that killed 298 people and shocked the world. “After that, the idea of Novorossia was closed. So it was shut down and the war was soon frozen.”

Aleksandr traveled to the Crimean capital, Simferopol, in February 2014 to work for the Russian Unity party of Sergei Aksyonov, who went on to become Crimea's de facto governor following Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian region. After the annexation, Aleksandr worked within Aksyonov’s administration.

'Little Green Men'

His main duties involved organizing Crimea’s “local defense volunteers.” These hastily assembled and poorly equipped groups were tasked with standing between the Ukrainian military and the infamous “little green men” -- Russian military forces operating in masks without insignias.

Initially, Aleksandr said, there was no money for arms or equipment. But on March 3, the Russia-backed insurgents managed to take over local branches of several Ukrainian banks. “Money started coming in by the bagful every day,” Aleksandr said.

Soon, he was able to offer “volunteers” up to 800 rubles (roughly $22.40 at the time) a day, and the number of recruits skyrocketed. After Russian intelligence forces took over the regional Supreme Soviet on February 28, Ukrainian police forces across Crimea seemingly melted away, and Aleksandr’s self-defense forces scrambled to replace them.

He remembers the first week of March as particularly tense, as pro-Russia Crimeans waited nervously for any sign from Moscow.

“Until March 6, it was forbidden to speak about unification with Russia or to hang the Russian flag,” he says. “Everyone was waiting for a final decision to be made in Moscow.”

Aleksandr believes Moscow was waiting to see how Ukraine’s military would respond to the unfolding situation. Only after it became apparent that Kyiv was not ready for a confrontation did the Kremlin give the final go-ahead.

Russian flags -- that had been shipped in by the ton -- were unfurled, and a referendum on independence was scheduled. Aleksandr’s self-defense forces began arming themselves with weapons taken from Ukrainian armories. Aleksandr says the outpouring of public support was incredible, with citizens bringing food, money, and supplies to the self-defense forces’ office in Simferopol. By March 29, six self-defense units of 80-100 men each had been fully equipped. After the Ukrainian base at Mazanka was occupied, all the units’ hunting rifles were replaced with automatic weapons and side arms.

At the same time, more and more “representatives of Moscow” were appearing in the offices of the de facto Crimean government. One day a man showed up at Aleksandr’s office and said, “I’m Sasha, a PR specialist from Moscow.”

“Later I found out that his last name was Borodai, after he became prime minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” Aleksandr said in a reference to a separatist group that came to control swaths of Ukraine's Donetsk region. “What he was doing in Crimea, I don’t know. But before the referendum I saw him here and there, but later he completely disappeared. So many strange people arrived from Moscow and the rest of Russia that there is no way to remember them all.”

Disputed Referendums

The disputed Crimean-status referendum was held under occupation on March 16, despite being declared illegal by Ukraine’s Constitutional Court. Aleksandr conceded it was illegal but said he remains convinced that the results were an accurate snapshot of the mood at the time.

“It was one of those referendums where you don’t have to falsify anything,” he said. “At the time, the overwhelming majority of the population voluntarily voted for unification [with Russia]. Now the mood isn’t the same as it was in the beginning.”

The enthusiasm was short-lived. “Already on March 20 the process of dividing up positions was under way, as a result of which the majority of corrupt officials from [ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s] Party of Regions either kept their posts or got new ones.”

“The entire Party of Regions organically merged into United Russia, while the people expected something completely different,” Aleksandr recalled. “They wanted new authorities.”

One of the most mysterious strangers from this period was a man who introduced himself as “the Kremlin’s emissary, Igor.” It turned out to be Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, who took over the command of separatists united under the banner of "Crimean self-defense forces" and was later self-proclaimed defense minister of the Donetsk fighters opposing Kyiv's control.

Girkin was clearly in command in Crimea at this time, Aleksandr said, and even Aksyonov deferred to him. His main task in March was accelerated military training for newly formed Crimean forces and selection of the best among them for transfer to Donbas, as a belt of eastern Ukraine is known. Aleksandr said Girkin personally negotiated and oversaw the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Crimea.

“Specialists from Moscow” brought in communications equipment for the commanders fighting in Donbas. “By the beginning of May, there were about 20 [special four-digit] numbers for them,” Aleksandr said.

Initially, arms and equipment came from Russia via Crimea. But as Moscow grew more confident, he said, it began sending the equipment directly across the open border between Ukraine and Russia’s Rostov Oblast.

Very soon, however, the militant groups in Donbas “turned into bands occupied with violence and looting,” Aleksandr said. “People were taken hostage and released for ransom. Often they fought among themselves for spheres of influence.”

“I knew the situation was hopeless when I found out that our fighters themselves had fired on a truck with our wounded that were being evacuated from the Donetsk airport on May 26,” he said. “My good friend was killed in that bloodbath. That’s when I understood it was all over, that people had been deceived and sent to die for nothing.”

“In the pro-Russian zone [in Donbas], weapons were handed out to criminals and drug addicts who robbed people, ‘commandeered’ businesses, homes, and cars,” he said. “The situation for the Russian World project became more and more catastrophic. That romantic of the Russian World, Girkin, could not cope with the anarchy that was developing around him.”

In addition, the Russia-backed forces in Donbas held a “referendum” on self-rule that was “so unconvincing” that even the Russian media barely mentioned it.

The project literally ended in disaster, Aleksandr said, when a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet was shot down over Donbas, killing all 298 people aboard. The Kremlin at that point gave up on the Novorossia idea, he added.

Aleksandr himself continued working in Crimea, although corruption flourished from the beginning when it became clear that the region’s tourism-driven economy had been hit hard. He said criminals and corrupt officials were making good money smuggling sanctioned goods from the European Union across the Kerch Strait into Russia as “aid for refugees.”

He left Crimea after a run-in with one such smuggling operation that he said was protected by someone in Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

“The Russian World that I dreamed of, that the people of Crimea expected, that the volunteers who died in Donbas believed in, crumbled into dust before my very eyes,” he recalled.


I had heard Strelkov was in Crimea, but other names are cited of Russians who commanded invasion; negotiated withdrawal? Again, other names

Is the purpose of this version of the story to up the ante on Strelkov's sagging reputation/fading from public view?

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 05:12 PM
How nice of #Russia to treat wounded "rebel" war criminal Motorola in a military hospital in St Petersburg.
https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/status/739190657521201152 …

1 of Russia's famous "rebels" in Ukraine, Motorola implicated & confessed to executing POWs
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-fighter-lsquo-motorola-rsquo-confesses-to-killing-15-ukrainian-prisoners-420847.html …

Reuters: #Russia says U.S. refuses talks on #missile defence system
http://uatoday.tv/politics/reuters-russia-says-u-s-refuses-talks-on-missile-defence-system-667283.html …

Ukrainian positions at Avdiivka were shelled twice with large-caliber mortars.
http://en.censor.net.ua/n391837

Germany says 'Russia is no longer our partner, but rival' - read on -
http://uatoday.tv http://uatoday.tv/politics/germany-says-russia-is-no-longer-our-partner-but-rival-667145.html …

Ukraine prevents Russia from stealing Kharkiv tractor plant's equipment, blueprints
http://uatoday.tv/business/ukraine-prevents-russia-from-stealing-kharkiv-tractor-plant-s-equipment-blueprints-667190.html …

Terrorists did not allow OSCE observers to their strongholds in Debaltseve area, - ATO speaker
http://en.censor.net.ua/n391877

Apologies for GRAPHIC video. Russia's "rebels" tortured, humiliated, executed POWs,then proudly posted film
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-gJ46pVLMo&feature=youtu.be&t=10m44s …

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 05:19 PM
https://maidantranslations.com/2016/06/05/dmitry-tymchuk-military-update-05-30-letmypeoplego/

Dmitry Tymchuk:

Military update 05.30



Operational data from Information Resistance:

During the past weekend (May 28 – 29, 2016), Russian-terrorist troops in Donbas continued actively violating the Minsk agreements by shelling the ATO forces’ positions from 120 mm mortars and 122 mm artillery systems, along the entire line of contact. Armed confrontations were observed in several locations.

Militants repeatedly used 120 mm mortars in the vicinity of Avdiivka (enemy gunners and spotters operating near the bridge). Numerous militant attacks with small arms and stand-mounted grenade launchers (AGS-17 and SPG-9M) were recorded in the summer cottages area near Avdiivka’s industrial zone, as well as near the ATO forces’ positions at the Butovska mine (ventilation shaft of the Putylivska mine), the “Zenith” position, and other areas in the southwestern direction of operations.

Enemy sniper groups (armed with large-caliber sniper rifles) are highly active in the industrial zone of Avdiivka, near Mar’inka, and southeast of Novhorodske. At the same time, terrorists are using anti-tank missiles on several sections of the front to destroy the ATO forces’ armored vehicles and equipment. In some instances, [anti-tank missiles were] aimed at Ukrainian troops’ fortified firing positions.

The ATO Museum, "The Roads of Donbas" opened in Dnipro on May 26, 2016 Source
The ATO Museum, “The Roads of Donbas” opened in Dnipro on May 26, 2016 Source

Russian-terrorist forces stepped up their activity in the area of Horlivka. In the area of Luhanske and on the Svitlodarsk salient, militants are attempting to force the ATO forces from their positions by actively shelling them from different (mainly flank) positions in the open country, and by using trained sabotage and reconnaissance groups. At the same time, militants are heavily shelling Mayorsk, Zaitseve, and Novhorodske from the western and northwestern outskirts of Horlivka.

Militants repeatedly opened fire from 122 mm cannon artillery (in 4-5 shell salvos) from their positions southwest and east of Styla, as ranging fire on the ATO forces’ positions. Terrorists also used 122 mm artillery from positions in the vicinity of the 206.9 m high ground (fire adjustment), and from positions south of the Starolaspa village. According to IR group’s data, current usage of cannon artillery by terrorists is related to the “training process” used for “qualifying practice fire” in the course of shooting practice for units of the Russian Armed Forces and militants trained by Russian instructors.

In the area east of Talakivka and Lomakyne (north of Vodyane), militants fired at the ATO forces’ two advanced strongholds from two positions near the Oktyabr village and in the area northwest of the Kominternove settlement. During these attacks, the enemy used 82 mm mortars and small arms. An enemy group attempted to approach our advanced positions near Shyrokyne, moving in from the direction of Sakhanka, then retreated to the starting line after a brief skirmish.

Terrorists continue their reconnaissance activity, including the use of UAVs (up to 5-7 daily UAV flights), which monitor the ATO forces’ operational-tactical zone. The main targets of enemy intelligence include Ukrainian troop command points, locations of supply warehousing and storage (in the tactical and operational-tactical zones), as well as the areas and lines of Ukrainian troop concentration and deployment.

Terrorists’ use of UAVs follows a certain pattern:

• Most UAVs are used during the hours of darkness, making it difficult for Ukrainian troops to counteract them;

• Accordingly, enemy UAVs are predominantly equipped with night-vision optical devices, including thermal imaging cameras;

• In addition to UAVs with reconnaissance capabilities, militants began actively using UAVs capable of dropping incendiary ammunition. Because these ordnances are small-sized, high-performance and heavily used, [these UAVs] are capable of starting a large number of fires throughout a relatively small area;

• The enemy is increasingly using UAVs for diversion and identification of the ATO forces’ air defense systems, and to provoke Ukrainian troops into opening fire so as to uncover the ATO forces’ fire organization and delivery system on different sections of the front line.

The Russian military command decided on a gradual increase in the “cash allowance” for privates and sergeants in the “DNR 1st Army Corps” and the “LNR 2nd Army Corps.” The respective instruction indicates that the increase in “salaries” applies exclusively to local militants and Russian mercenaries who had signed “contracts” with the military leadership of the “DNR” and the “LNR,” as well as with the “staffing authorities of the South Military District of the Russian Federation” (it is currently unknown what this term refers to). This order does not apply to the rest of the “volunteers,” “Cossacks,” and others. At the same time, the Russian presidential administration ordered the command of both territorial units to “get things in order” concerning personnel records and payment of cash allowances.

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2016, 05:25 PM
Russian shelling's and ground attacks have basically gone on all day long........

14:53 #Krasnohorivka @amdh2012 Battle, small arms

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2016, 09:09 AM
"LNR" militants forbid residents to leave the occupied village Novooleksandrivka - OSCE
pic.twitter.com/NqBRkJCWPk
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/6-june-the-militants-lnr-has-forbidden-residents-to-leave …

Next time you sit thru a 30-slide powerpoint plan remember Monty planned D-Day on one sheet of paper

There has not been a truer statement coming out of the Russian FM.....now they finally speak the "truth"....

At a media forum in Moscow, Russian MFA spokesperson Mariya Zakharova's just said "I'm a propagandist who believes in objective journalism"

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2016, 09:22 AM
OSCE: Armed “DPR” members continue to keep the power supply to SMM’s repeater in #Donetsk city disconnected, as they have since 20 May

As a result, SMM remote monitoring equipment at “DPR”-controlled Oktiabr mine & in govt-controlled #Avdiivka are disabled

Reference the JIT investigation of the Russian shot down of MH17......
Investigators weren't allowed to access telephone network or cell towers in Luhansk
https://www.om.nl/mh17-ezine-juni2016/6-soil-samples-en.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2016, 05:26 PM
Traditional Russian evening shelling from Donetsk outskirts began earlier today.

19:17 NE #Donetsk @Shymanovski small arms together with heavies
#Yakovlivka direction. Becoming more frequent

19:10 #Donetsk #Putilovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] listening to battle on: AR/MG bursts mixed with single heavy booms, intensity above average

18:20 #Donetsk @nixer79 some battle in the area of #Spartak, kind of mortar duel, 2-3sec betw/salvo-explosion, small arms

18:22 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#DOK: heavy salvos in the north
#Kalinina mine: it booms from afar, north direction, probably NW

17:43 #Donetsk @nixer79 a Ural truck w/body full of RU w/assault rifles went northwards along #Universytetska, plate: DK3642, sign: #15 in ○

18:21 #Donetsk #Zaperevalna @parovozkrivonos Adjusted, 3 [more] salvos applied one after another

18:09 #Donetsk #Topaz @cranovschik there have been 3-4 dull salvos coming like from the south/southeast, rollingly with echo...

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2016, 05:31 PM
Russia propaganda outlet promotes Russian war games in #Cuba, #Venezuela & #Brazil to test US.
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/345422-nato-knocking-russia-latin-america/ …

Guardian: #Russia's 'valiant hero' in #Ukraine turns his fire on Vladimir #Putin
http://uatoday.tv/politics/guardian-russia-s-valiant-hero-in-ukraine-turns-his-fire-on-vladimir-putin-667871.html …

Head of Ukrainian Security Service: Russian Main Intelligence Agency planned to blow up SBU detention centre in Kyiv
http://uatoday.tv/crime/russian-intelligence-agency-planned-attack-on-kyiv-detention-centre-security-service-667635.html …

In addition to firing weapons from civilian roofs, Russian militants now restrict movement of Donbas residents.
http://www.unian.info/war/1366827-militants-do-not-let-donbas-residents-move-freely-to-and-from-village-osce.html …

Lavrov: Russia Will Respond To NATO Baltic Activity
http://upnorth.eu/lavrov-russia-will-respond-to-nato-baltic-activity/ …

Russia FM Lavrov blames #Ukraine for not implementing Minsk ... when Moscow-backed separatists not implementing ceasefire, arms withdrawal.

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2016, 07:19 PM
Traditional Russian evening shelling from Donetsk outskirts began earlier today.

19:17 NE #Donetsk @Shymanovski small arms together with heavies
#Yakovlivka direction. Becoming more frequent

19:10 #Donetsk #Putilovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] listening to battle on: AR/MG bursts mixed with single heavy booms, intensity above average

18:20 #Donetsk @nixer79 some battle in the area of #Spartak, kind of mortar duel, 2-3sec betw/salvo-explosion, small arms

18:22 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#DOK: heavy salvos in the north
#Kalinina mine: it booms from afar, north direction, probably NW

17:43 #Donetsk @nixer79 a Ural truck w/body full of RU w/assault rifles went northwards along #Universytetska, plate: DK3642, sign: #15 in ○

18:21 #Donetsk #Zaperevalna @parovozkrivonos Adjusted, 3 [more] salvos applied one after another

18:09 #Donetsk #Topaz @cranovschik there have been 3-4 dull salvos coming like from the south/southeast, rollingly with echo...

22:01 #Horlivka @PhoenixxxCzar28 One can see vehicles on move along the frontline. Salvos in #Mayorsk-#Zaytseve area, round 4-5sec explosion

21:58 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM ongoing battle, something heavy rumbles

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2016, 07:19 PM
Attack of the Russian Troll Army: American Websites Targeted By Russian Trolls
https://lnkd.in/eWdVRS9

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 08:02 AM
NOW Putin and Russia have serious problem on their hands.....
Reference the Russian shot down of MH17.....

MH17 crash: Big Buk missile part found in Ukraine - BBC News
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36462853 …


International investigators have published a photo of a large Buk missile component found at the MH17 airliner crash site eastern Ukraine.

The Joint Investigation Team (JIT) image shows a "Venturi", which emits propellant gases, like a car exhaust.

Dutch prosecutors want more information from Russia about the Buk, which they say killed 298 people aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in July 2014.

The West and Ukraine say Russian-backed rebels fired the Buk missile.

Russia argues that Ukrainian forces downed MH17. The Boeing 777, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, crashed in rebel-held territory.

The JIT interim report explains the progress of the criminal inquiry. The experts are studying a mass of tiny fragments retrieved from the crash site.

Last year, a Dutch Safety Board report concluded that MH17 was downed by a Russian-made Buk, but did not say who fired it. Board president Djibbe Joustra said at the time that the rebels were in charge of the area from which it was fired.

Initially the MH17 investigation was hampered by restricted access to the crash site

Dutch prosecutors plan to present the results of their investigation in the autumn. They say it is at "a very advanced stage".

But the JIT interim report says more technical and operational details about the missile are needed.

The Boeing 777 crashed at the height of the conflict between Ukrainian government troops and pro-Russian separatists.

Some families of the victims are suing Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin, in the European Court of Human Rights.

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 08:09 AM
For #Russia it’s infinitely worse to be ignored than to be considered a worthy rival:
http://reut.rs/1VGTrR0

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 10:31 AM
AND the Ukrainian Russian war just keeps on grinding away and the West says nothing......appears the West is getting use to a war just hours from NATO borders.....

ATO spox: 1 Ukr serviceman KIA and 9 WIA in yesterday's battles.

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 11:28 AM
News
Record number of 40 Ukrainian army casualties during the first 6 days of June.
1 KIA, 9 WIA on Monday

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 01:13 PM
Breaking
russia today account hacked!!!
Ukrainian hackers post ridiculous gif animations of putin now.

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 04:36 PM
Luhansk area (with #Shchastya and #StanytsiaLuhanska) frontline map HD:
http://img.ly/DKp4

Crimean Court refuses to find Crimean Tatar remembrance unlawful
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465314697 …

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 05:02 PM
MFA Russia
‏@mfa_russia

#Grushko: NATO keeps training Ukrainian armed forces & we see them moving closer to the conflict zone
http://bit.ly/22MlY8F

Russia alarmed by NATO states’ programs with Ukraine —
June 06, 21:55 UTC+3

Russia’s NATO Ambassador Alexander Grushko says Nato keeps training Ukrainian special forces, Ukrainian armed forces


MOSCOW, June 6./TASS/. Russia is concerned over bilateral programs of certain NATO countries with Ukraine, Russia’s NATO Ambassador Alexander Grushko told Rossiya 24 television on Monday.

"We are no less concerned over bilateral programs implemented by certain NATO countries. In particular, they keep training Ukrainian special forces, Ukrainian armed forces," Grushko said. "And we see that these trained forces are moving closer to the conflict zone. This fuels escalation and plays into the hands of the party of war, fueling revanchist sentiments," he said.

This game "is at variance with the interests of not only Ukraine, but of the Western European countries," he added. The role of NATO "in the Ukrainian crisis was unequivocally negative, including in the genesis of the crisis itself," Grushko went on.

Earlier NATO’S Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Curtis Scaparotti, said the Alliance should support Ukraine with all it needed to protect its sovereignty and territory.

"I do believe that we should support the Ukrainians with what they need to successfully defend their territory and their sovereignty," Scaparrotti said.


So what? We see you moving INSIDE the conflict zone.

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 06:21 PM
#BREAKING: A Lenin monument is decapitated in central Moscow
https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/06/07/a-lenin-monument-is-decapitated-in-central-moscow?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=share_twitter&utm_campaign=share …

Christo Grozev @christogrozev
Re-reading what I wrote on Girkin vs Putin two years ago & wondering if I was way way off or bulls-eye on
https://cgrozev.wordpress.com/2014/05/31/putins-pickle/ …


Putin’s Pickle
Posted on May 31, 2014


The Ukrainian secession crisis brought about a sharp boost in Putin’s popularity at home: his latest approval ratings are at a soaring 83% and keep climbing. However, rather than a sign of presidential longevity (a new joke calls Putin the “odd President”, as opposed to his “even” partner Medvedev), this jump may be a precursor of an imminent demise.

Here are the arguments for such an unintuitive conclusion.

First, the war on Ukraine was not engineered by Putin. While he is a clear beneficiary, he is not in the driver’s seat of the invasion – and he feels visibly uncomfortable with this sinecure position. What is worse, the people who are in the driver’s seat are not Putin’s natural allies – and their symbiotic relation is unlikely to last beyond a few months.

Let’s consider some of the actual engineers of “Project Ukraine”.

The self-appointed “Minister of War” in Eastern Ukraine, Igor Girkin, is the man with the actual (military) power on the ground. His war-time buddy from the Transnistria secession war in 1992, is the self-appointed Prime Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Their key remote collaborators in Moscow are Marat Musin and Olga Kolygina. None of these are natural friends of Putin, quite on the contrary. All four have historically been anti-Putin (and anti-establishment) in their ideology, and until very recently – in their public statements. All four were activists who, arms in hand, tried to topple Yeltsin in 1993. Two of the four are self-admitted monarchists, the other two are essentially hard-line communists, but all four are united by their extreme “Greater Russia” ideology, and would give their lives to return Russia to the quasi-empire it was under the Soviet Union.

None of the four – and more importantly, neither of the two now dealing the cards on the ground in Eastern Ukraine – are reporting up to Putin. They report directly to their sponsor: the “orthodox oligarch” Konstantin Malofeev. A clear proof of the absence of even a dotted reporting line to the Kremlin was the intercepted call between Putin’s personal envoy Lukin and Col. Girkin – Lukin was sent to “negotiate” the release of the kidnapped OSCE monitors, but Girkin only agreed to release them because his boss – Malofeev – told him to. Not because Putin (via his envoy) asked him to.

Let’s look at the sponsor himself. Malofeev. The billionaire was detained over fraud charges by Putin as recently as November 2012; and his property – including his controlling shares in Rostelecom – was put under a criminal arrest. It was only through an undisclosed arrangement that the charges were dropped and the shares were released. Whatever political truce Malofeev may have agreed with Putin, it is only going to last for as long as Putin has the leverage. The moment Malofeev gets any leverage over Putin, revenge for the public humiliation is likely to be imminent. And Malofeev now has the leverage of control over the self-determination of a new country – for which Putin has taken the full public credit, on credit.

Another influential “actor” we might consider is Alexander Barkashov, an extreme – openly fascist – former politician, who brought his swastika-bearing private army to shoot at Yeltsin’s supporters in 1993 (thus his linkage to the “big four”). Barkashov was the person caught on tape giving instructions to the Donetsk activists on how to fabricate the upcoming referendum results; he was also caught referring to Putin as, essentially, a sissy who is not willing to provide the military support needed for a successful secession from Ukraine. In the call, the local Donetsk activist asked Barkashov for permission to postpone the referendum, citing lack of time to prepare for a plausible “due process”. Barkashov said absolutely not. The next day, Putin made a public appeal to separatists to postpone the vote. Guess which of the two instructions the Donetsk “self-defense” heeded. (No points for ignoring Putin).

So, all in all, not difficult to see where this is going. People who have no reason to like Putin, have full control over the way separatists in Eastern Ukraine act. They have been smartly patient in allowing him to bask in the legend of “Vladimir the Uniter”, but will only do that for pragmatic reasons. These reasons include fostering the belief in the media in Russia that this is Putin’s project (and for as long as they believe this, they will break their legs push to support the separatists – and in the process, to glorify Girkin and Boroday. They also include the foreign policy support by Russia to their actions – engaging the mighty power of Russian diplomacy and foreign propaganda to demonize the Ukrainian army’s anti-terrorist initiatives and brand them as “genocide on their own people”. But this bunch won’t stop at that. They know that Putin will come to his Waterloo very soon. A likely Waterloo will be the decision – that he will have to make – to NOT accept the new-fangled republics DNR, LNR and all the *NRs that will keep popping up. Annexing these territories is a non-option for Putin – it will virtually destroy the Russian economy. It is almost possible to accommodate 1.8 m people who are net budget recipients, but quite another to find the funds for another 7 or 8 m budget drainers. And let’s not forget the pariah state that Russia will become once it annexes territories that don’t have even the flimsy “part-of-Russia” legend that the Crimea had. Even the sanction-wary EU countries will be forced to act on full scale then.

Putin is in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t pickle. If he does offer military intervention and/or annex Eastern Ukraine, the Russian economy will collapse and he will quickly became unelectable. If he doesn’t, he will condemn Eastern Ukraine to the status of a new Transnistria, and will be branded as a traitor to the “Greater Russia” resurrection idea. That will make him unelectable again.

Let me make one thing clear: Putin’s pickle in the Ukrainian context is not something that I just discovered; there have been numerous publications on his no-win dilemma.

What I am trying to bring to the debate is the very strong probability that this predicament is not a chance deviation from the Kremlin’s original plan. On the contrary, I strongly believe that the pickle was the plan itself. A plan written by people, who – for one – will not allow Putin to take the credit for something that he hardly even contributed to.

Now, the fact that the carpet is likely going to be pulled from under Putin’s feet by the initiators of the Ukraine secession crisis do not mean that they will succeed. There are many other factors that make sure the inertia is in favor of Putin – his strong control over the FSB and judicial system and over the media. However, there are likely to be centrifugal forces there too. The Russian oligarchs – who are Putin’s proxies in control of the media – are not thrilled with the sanctions, while Putin, as a Russian economist said, prefers the sanctions to be expanded to as many oligarchs as possible, to keep their interests aligned with his. When they decide to switch their loyalties is a function only of how much longer he can feed them “Sochi”s” and – now – “Crimea’s” – but all these projects depend on his ability to squander budget rubles. Which may not last much longer, especially if he does act on Eastern Ukraine.

Last, let’s not forget the army. While it is in the firm grip of the Kremlin, there are more and more military online forums where Girkin and the “Russian volunteers in Ukraine” are beginning to get a halo of near-mystical respect that may well compete for their loyalty, given the opportunity.

In 2010, Girkin wrote to a friend:

“Everyone I talk to…swears allegiance to Putin […] In Russia, today, it seems there is nothing to be done. There is no conflict, no catalyst, everything is strictly under control […] Maybe a Transnistria option for Ukraine can be such a catalyst.

In any case, I have many friends -veterans from Transnistria and the Chechen wars – who are willing to sacrifice anything and will show up at a moment’s notice”

It just might be that by now he has many more friends – or ready followers – in the Russian military.

The Thief Next Door: Russia's rich history of annexing neighbouring countries
http://uatoday.tv/society/the-thief-next-door-russia-s-rich-history-of-annexing-neighbouring-countries-668601.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 06:59 PM
Mocking Putin Got Me Sent to Twitter Gulag
http://thebea.st/1tdIFH6

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2016, 07:33 PM
I had posted something to this effect several days ago......

Did #NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2014/11/06-nato-no-promise-enlarge-gorbachev-pifer …

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2016, 05:26 AM
ATO: 36 russian attacks in #Donbas y/day, nr Avdiivka & Butovka mine UAF pos. came unde fire fr heavy machine guns, GLs, mortars, artillery.

7:26AM
"Good morning. Towards #Shyrokyno 120-mm mortars incoming


Reference Russian shot down of MH17...this is actually a new development in the investigation...

Raids in Germany, Switzerland in #MH17 probe
https://www.yahoo.com/news/raids-germany-switzerland-mh17-probe-160457366.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw …

Russia rejects missile defense cooperation with U.S., turns down every U.S. proposal
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/348560.html …

Russia concerned by reports that Germany sees Kremlin as a 'threat'
http://bit.ly/1U6Cux7

Russian Violations of Borders, Treaties, and Human Rights
http://gettopical.com/ukraine/b1962f86e4f194347f6c4fb4893b618f?src=twitter …

This #Tank Has Become an Icon of #Russia|’s Secret War in #Ukraine
https://warisboring.com/this-tank-has-become-an-icon-of-russias-secret-war-in-ukraine-19711a6b7bae#.ehkcpfdot …

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2016, 05:37 PM
APPEARS Russia is running out of money for eastern Ukraine....

Intelligence: Militants' wages drop, payments delayed
http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/66001-intelligence-militants-wages-drop-payments-delayed.html …

Some reasons for Putin to lose sleep: Analysts see Kremlin thinking of world war
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/kremli

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Kremlin Said Thinking about World War But Russians May Not Be Ready to Fight for Narva

Paul Goble


Staunton, June 7 – “Judging by everything,” Yevgeny Kiselyov says, “the Kremlin is seriously considering the scenario of a military conflict with the West, and with a high degree of probability could unleash this conflict in the Baltics.” But there is at least one indication this week that ordinary Russians may be less than enthusiastic about dying for Narva.

The Russian journalist says that he reached this “extremely worrisome conclusion” after several developments this past week, most prominently the statement of Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko that the Russian leadership is no longer willing to put up with discrimination against Russians abroad (echo.msk.ru/blog/kiselev/1778686-echo/).

That is disturbing on two grounds: Moscow made the same argument before using military force in Crimea, and Matvienko mentioned far more countries as problematic from the Kremlin’s point of view on this issue than is typically the case, including not just the Baltic states but Belarus and even Kazakhstan.

And related to that is the reappearance of a second argument by those near the Kremlin that they used before sending forces into the Ukrainian peninsula, “if Russian military units hadn’t taken Crimea under its control,” they argued then and suggest once again, then two weeks later there would have been NATO forces.”

Kiselyov says that that argument was nothing new for the Kremlin: it had used it before sending troops into Czechoslovakia in 1968 and into Afghanistan in 1979. And now senior Russian officials like Frantz Klinetsevich, the first deputy head of the Federation Council’s defense and security committee, has resuscitated them about the Baltics.

He is arguing, Kiselyov says, that “NATO is preparing a place des armes for a military strike against Russian” in the Baltic countries” and strongly implying that Moscow needs to take “a ’preventive’ hybrid special operation of military and special services of the Russian Federation against this threat.

By issuing such threats, Moscow is “attempting to use intimidation tactics,” with some even talking about the need to use tactical nuclear weapons,” an action that if taken would put NATO in a difficult position: if it responded in kind, there could be escalation to full-scale war; if it did not, NATO might die as a result.

That Vladimir Putin is prepared to push things to the limit was shown, Kiselyov says, by his rejection of Aleksey Kudrin’s argument that the Kremlin should seek a rapprochement with the West to save the economy. The Kremlin leader not only said he would never trade on Russia’s sovereignty but also added that he would defend Russia “to the end of his life.”

That last phrase, the Moscow journalist argues, “speaks volumes.”

“The diagnosis of the situation is bad,” he continues. “Putin lives as a prisoner of his own ambitions and phobias,” which suggest to him that Russia is surrounded by enemies and that the West is trying to destroy it and him. In this, Kiselyov says, Putin thinks just like the zombified Russian population that he has created.

What is more significant, he continues, is “not only this episode but practically any discussion about how to get the Russian economy out of its prolonged crisis runs into one and the same thing: the striving of the Putin regime to retain power at any price,” including military conflict and nuclear blackmail.

“Any serious reforms are impossible without political liberalization,” Kiselyov suggests, something that the Kremlin understands quite well. But if it begins reforms, it will “inevitably” lose power or be forced to share it with others. “The only alternative is the tightening of the screws … all under the flag of uniting the nation against a foreign threat.”

As a result, the Moscow journalist suggests, “military confrontation with the West is becoming ever more likely, and most likely of all in the Baltic region.” Of course, Putin could expand the war in Ukraine or launch something in Kazakhstan or Belarus, but these are “exotic scenarios” given his past approach. Consequently, he is going to go to the brink in the Baltics – and possibly even over it.

But there is at least one indication that perhaps the Russian people aren’t nearly as enthusiastic about that prospect and that they do not want to “fight for Narva” for Putin’s vision and salvation and against the Western alliance, especially because they can see that NATO has built up serious forces in the region, Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts argues.

In an article in today’s “Yezhednevny zhurnal” entitled “Will We Fight for Narva?” he observes that the Western alliance has “in fact returned to the scenarios of the cold war. No one is talking about whether Russian threatens or not the countries of the alliance. Instead, they talk about where this threat is greatest and how to counter it” (ej.ru/?a=note&id=29778).

NATO has developed a system for putting its forces in forward areas, Golts observes. “Earlier, the field of battled was assumed to be Germany; today, it is the Baltic region,” and even Sweden and Finland, which during the earlier Cold War, were neutral, are now “taking part in NATO military preparations.”

Obviously, Moscow has to react to this, a situation it played the key role in creating. But one chain of events this week suggests that the Russian people may be less enthusiastic about war than Putin is and more frightened of the NATO forces with which any Russian move would have to deal.

First, a senior Russian parliamentarian announced that the defense ministry planned to close some of the military training faculties in key universities; and then the defense ministry denied this was the case. Golts suggests that perhaps the best explanation is that the Kremlin didn’t want to “take the risk” of doing something like this before the elections.

And that in turn suggests, although Golts does not take this next step, that at least some in the Presidential Administration are worried about how the Russian people view what the Kremlin leader’s warlike attitudes will lead to and what they will mean for their own lives and not just his.

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2016, 07:11 PM
BREAKING: Kremlin retreats on financing 'Donbas project'
http://uatoday.tv/politics/kremlin-retreats-on-financing-donbas-project-669266.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2016, 07:22 PM
Russian shelling's and ground attacks are on tonight......

The sound of battle from #Zaitsevo.
#Horlivka
https://twitter.com/kapralukr/status/740621265300520961 …

21:07 #Horlivka @kapralukr #Zaytseve is noisy again

Heavy incoming fire on #Avdiivka's outskirts now.

22:33 #Donetsk "non-stop salvos"
https://twitter.com/LifeInDonetsk/status/740627952078073857 …

22:33 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza Get it [=UA reply?]

22:31 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Heavy ones again. In the north

22:24 #Donetsk railway station area - "hearing salvos. It sounds like an empty bucket"
https://twitter.com/TaylerRid/status/740625520241561601 …

22:33 #Donetsk #Topaz @cranovschik since 22:15, periodically noisy, smth is launched with aftersound, rollingly, like nearby...Now strongy

22:15 #Donetsk #center @Donetsk_Ukraine pro-RU hunting UAV

22:26 #Donetsk #Kyivskyi @AlfaNubovsky north direction: far-off few artillery salvos? now smth booms again

22:23 #Donetsk #Kuybyshevskyi @CKOTINYAKA mortars, outgoings, 3 rounds

Donetsk @huyoviynovoros [as for salvos at 21:45] SPG started from chemicals plant area. Shelled about 5 rounds towards north. Pretty early

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 05:43 AM
Russian shelling's and ground attacks are on tonight......

The sound of battle from #Zaitsevo.
#Horlivka
https://twitter.com/kapralukr/status/740621265300520961 …

21:07 #Horlivka @kapralukr #Zaytseve is noisy again

Heavy incoming fire on #Avdiivka's outskirts now.

22:33 #Donetsk "non-stop salvos"
https://twitter.com/LifeInDonetsk/status/740627952078073857 …

22:33 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza Get it [=UA reply?]

22:31 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Heavy ones again. In the north

22:24 #Donetsk railway station area - "hearing salvos. It sounds like an empty bucket"
https://twitter.com/TaylerRid/status/740625520241561601 …

22:33 #Donetsk #Topaz @cranovschik since 22:15, periodically noisy, smth is launched with aftersound, rollingly, like nearby...Now strongy

22:15 #Donetsk #center @Donetsk_Ukraine pro-RU hunting UAV

22:26 #Donetsk #Kyivskyi @AlfaNubovsky north direction: far-off few artillery salvos? now smth booms again

22:23 #Donetsk #Kuybyshevskyi @CKOTINYAKA mortars, outgoings, 3 rounds

Donetsk @huyoviynovoros [as for salvos at 21:45] SPG started from chemicals plant area. Shelled about 5 rounds towards north. Pretty early

Shelling as heard from #Donetsk city tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et6SNkpFfew …

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 05:48 AM
Donetsk is popping tonight, UAVs, anti-air cannon fire, artillery every few minutes and the smell of a fire in center city.

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 05:56 AM
'Beware, Propaganda!': Russia's Independent Media Take On State TV
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia

Donbas frontline summary: militants increasingly using artillery; new tanks brought across the border from #Russia
https://goo.gl/wivqOn

43 pro Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions yesterday, 152mm artillery used - ATO

Heavy artillery battle in #Dokuchaevsk last night:
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/740771259366137856 …

00:12 #Dokuchajevsk-#Novotroitske Ongoing battle with small arms and mortars. Occasionally audible artillery. https://twitter.com/EverydayInUa/status/740655452388745217 …

Russian militants shelled #Putylivka neighbourhood of #Donetsk with 122-mm SP-gun, - #Ukraine's General Staff
http://en.censor.net.ua/n392431

In 24h situation in #Donbas worsened, RUS militants opened fire 43 times, used 152 mm &122mm artillery, 82mm mortars
https://goo.gl/7em3Ft

ATO: 43 russian attacks in #Donbas yday. Avdiivka, Optyne, Pisky came under fire fr small arms, mortars of various calibers, 152mm artillery

06:58 #Dokuchaevsk @whicard5 "I spent last night in cellar. Artillery skirmish lasted 4hrs since 00:00. The battle in industrial area[=N]"

Suddenly Putin/Russia "play nice".......trying to influence NATO meeting in Warsaw??
Russia is showing uncharacteristic prudence—Why, and will it last?
http://brook.gs/216VUDY

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 06:04 AM
The Bear in the Room: The US-Nordic Summit & Dealing with #Russia. @seipjm in @WarOnTheRocks→
http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/the-bear-in-the-room-the-u-s-nordic-summit-and-dealing-with-russia/ …

Czech Foreign minister says #Russia|n president is trying to ‘divide and conquer’ #Europe
https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/740757457971073024 …

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 09:13 AM
Russian MOD Confirms Pilot Killed In Su-27 Crash Near Moscow
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-june-9-2016/#14149 …

One pilot killed after Mig-29 military jet of the Russian Knights flight stunt team crashed
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2016/9-june-one-pilot-killed-after-mig29-military-jet-of-the-russian …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIqPYJmYYak …

Kremlin’s troops in eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region - russia’s war in Ukraine.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-t-72b3-the-lethal-russian-tank-ukraine-fears-most-16500 …

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 10:16 AM
Vladimir Putin destabilising EU through support for right-wing populists, Czech ForMin warns
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/3d6b68aa-2d57-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html?sectionid=world …

Russian ground fighting and artillery shelling's are still ongoing....

11:48 #Krasnohorivka area @Huyovyi_Kolhoz Shooting combat near #Krasnohorivka, +BMP, +SPG... for now intensity decreased a bit
12:13 ceased

UAF's losses in yesterday's battles: 1 KIA and 5 WIA.

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 04:38 PM
Crimea as An Aircraft Carrier, Threats To NATO, Russian Pilots' Butthurt (Video):
https://informnapalm.org/en/jun02-crimea-nato-russian-pilots/ …

Ever creeping forward Russian annexation of Georgian territory.....
Russian forces install new ‘border’ signs deeper in Georgian territory
http://agenda.ge/news/59711/eng

Just move the border signs and no one will say anything will they?????

Both Sides Trade Claims Of Shelling Of Residential Areas As Fighting Worsens
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-843/#14154

RF authorities demand US court dismisses Yukos compensation case | Права человека в России
http://hro.org/node/24641

On Russia's links to Germany's "far right" AfD party.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-populists-forge-deeper-ties-with-russia-a-1089562.html …

Separatists have blocked OSCE access to territory, threatened monitors & systematically destroyed their cameras and UAVs.

Russia deploys troops westward as standoff with #NATO deepens (& fearing #Ukraine may grab some Russian land)
http://reut.rs/1VKaim5

Azor
06-09-2016, 05:16 PM


Some reasons for Putin to lose sleep: Analysts see Kremlin thinking of world war

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/kremli


I'm afraid that Goble is wide of the mark on this one. While Putin salivates at the prospect of NATO's dissolution, there are absolutely no indications that he seeks a military confrontation that could turn nuclear. Nor is there anything that invading the Baltics could provide for Russia (i.e. human and natural resources) that could not be obtained by other means, such as annexing Belarus or northern Kazakhstan. The article touches on the prospects of invading these non-NATO states, but dismisses the them out of hand. Yet while the United States would not be willing to fight for Minsk or Astana, it would certainly slap much more severe sanctions on Russia, such as banning it from the SWIFT system, a possibility Kremlin mouthpieces have already declared as tantamount to war.

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 05:22 PM
CrowBat...what do you think??

BreakingReport
Rebel coalition under the leadership of Jaish al-Fatah attacks #Khalasah now.
If it falls, #Iran & Assad r in heavy trouble.

FSA Northern Brigade and Central Brigade are present in the battle too and claim destroyed IRGC tank and ATGM unit south Aleppo.

AjnadSham claim #SAA & allies have begun withdrawing from Zaytan

TOW destroyed rocket launcher in southern #Aleppo's Khalsah+seized a tank

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 06:41 PM
I'm afraid that Goble is wide of the mark on this one. While Putin salivates at the prospect of NATO's dissolution, there are absolutely no indications that he seeks a military confrontation that could turn nuclear. Nor is there anything that invading the Baltics could provide for Russia (i.e. human and natural resources) that could not be obtained by other means, such as annexing Belarus or northern Kazakhstan. The article touches on the prospects of invading these non-NATO states, but dismisses the them out of hand. Yet while the United States would not be willing to fight for Minsk or Astana, it would certainly slap much more severe sanctions on Russia, such as banning it from the SWIFT system, a possibility Kremlin mouthpieces have already declared as tantamount to war.


Azor...but here is the core problem....the current Russian military is built for a quick super quick victory and then kicks in the Russian not so subtle threat of a tactical nuclear first strike as a "descalation" before NATO can react....it has practiced that series of maneuvers for the last three years and is still exercising that scenario religiously.

This article carried here in SWJ is worth a quick read.......

Taking War Seriously: Russia-NATO Showdown No Longer Just Fiction
By James Sherr
May. 25 2016 19:24

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/taking-war-seriously-russia-nato-showdown-no-longer-just-fiction/570258.html

Azor....a serious part of the problem now is that a number of the senior military and senior political leaders ie Putin really have drunk the koolaid and believe their own propaganda and that alone is dangerous especially when one has nuclear trigger.....there is right now a serious perception in Moscow that NATO led by the US really wants to destroy via regime change Russia once and for all....it is there and this belief is real.

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 07:15 PM
OSCE Confirms Missing Driver Being Held In Donetsk
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-842/#14134

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 07:23 PM
Russian "vodka" hard at work......

Russian Mission OSCE @RF_OSCE
#Lukashevich: after seizing “grey zones” and failed breakthrough attempts the Ukr. forces resorted to shelling residential areas in Donbass

Russian Mission OSCE @RF_OSCE
#Lukashevich: we expect that SMM OSCE and JCCC would record and report on consequences of Ukr. shelling in Donbass on 8-9 June

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2016, 07:32 PM
Russian shelling's in support of their ground attacks........

From #Shyrokyne right now. I've heard 10 booms in one min. Most probably artillery as usual. #Mariupol #Ukraine

23:06 #Toretsk
#Shumy (near #Horlivka) "battle continues, something heavy has joined"
https://twitter.com/papakin78/status/740998547802345473 …

23:05 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin it is getting noisy

23:00 #Toretsk @blessmaster a loud ka-boom and a minute-long active skirmish

22:45
Blockpost at #Kominternove, #Vodyane-#Lebedinske shootout.

21:50 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] machine guns again

Azor
06-09-2016, 07:55 PM
Azor...but here is the core problem....the current Russian military is built for a quick super quick victory and then kicks in the Russian not so subtle threat of a tactical nuclear first strike as a "descalation" before NATO can react....it has practiced that series of maneuvers for the last three years and is still exercising that scenario religiously...Azor....a serious part of the problem now is that a number of the senior military and senior political leaders ie Putin really have drunk the koolaid and believe their own propaganda and that alone is dangerous especially when one has nuclear trigger.....there is right now a serious perception in Moscow that NATO led by the US really wants to destroy via regime change Russia once and for all....it is there and this belief is real.

Points taken, however, I would still say that Russia watchers are conflating capability with intent.

Firstly, First Grozny notwithstanding, Russia has always had the conventional capability to defeat Georgia, annex Crimea, set Donbas on fire and deploy a small expeditionary force to Syria. We can argue over how much clumsier mission execution would have been if ordered by Yeltsin rather than Putin, or in 1999 vs. 2009, however, these activities were always possible.

Secondly, we have the issue of intent. Yeltsin had a strong interest in Transnistria, Tajikistan, Abhkazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and Serbia. With respect to NATO expansion, only 3 new members were added during Yeltsin's tenure, of which only one (Poland) bordered Russia. In comparison, 9 were added during Putin's reign (not including Montenegro), of which 3 bordered Russia, and of which two effectively sealed off the western coast of the Black Sea. I think that you would be hard pressed to find an analyst who would suggest at any time that the Black Sea Fleet every would have vacated Crimea, or that Russia would allow the Russian-speaking enclaves in the former Soviet Union to be forcibly assimilated by their host countries.

As far as nuclear weapons go, Putin's doctrine is not markedly different from that of the Soviet Union, other than telegraphing that it would use nuclear weapons to stave off conventional defeat and invasion. Certainly, the nuclear saber-rattling is worse than even at the height of the Cold War, yet Putin has found that reforming the Russian military has been a much harder and more glacial process than he initially believed. Russia currently has only 100,000 professional soldiers that it can really rely upon, including Internal Troops/National Guard Spetsnaz units, and many time zones to spread them across. It is sufficient to crush Georgia, deter Ukraine's ATO and overrun the Baltics, but not enough to conquer Poland, occupy all of Ukraine, or defeat NATO's RRF when it surges into the area. Therefore, this posturing is intended to mask conventional inferiority. The notion of nuclear "de-escalation" is ludicrous as neither NATO nor Warsaw Pact/Soviet planners ever believed that there could be a limited nuclear war. If NATO is as weak as some of these analysts claim and lacking in tactical nuclear capabilities, then Putin is faced with a dangerous redux of the New Look/First Offset, whereby NATO would be forced to defend the Baltics with strategic ballistic missiles. In addition, NATO accepted for decades that it could not hold West Berlin or all of Germany against a Warsaw Pact onslaught, but now the temporary loss of Narva is unacceptable?

Thirdly, Putin's regime is inherently less stable than the institutionalized CPSU, meaning that Andropov-esque decision-making becomes even more dangerous. Nevertheless, analysts are interested in hyping the Russian threat to NATO in order to provide more funds for the US Army (largely without a mission now save air defense) and the shrinking NATO establishments. They are less interested in studying Putin's behavior, which would indicate that he has greater interests in Belarus and Kazakhstan than any NATO member states, and that while he will intervene to prevent a state becoming a NATO member, he does not want a conflict with the United States.

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 07:16 AM
Points taken, however, I would still say that Russia watchers are conflating capability with intent.

Firstly, First Grozny notwithstanding, Russia has always had the conventional capability to defeat Georgia, annex Crimea, set Donbas on fire and deploy a small expeditionary force to Syria. We can argue over how much clumsier mission execution would have been if ordered by Yeltsin rather than Putin, or in 1999 vs. 2009, however, these activities were always possible.

Secondly, we have the issue of intent. Yeltsin had a strong interest in Transnistria, Tajikistan, Abhkazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and Serbia. With respect to NATO expansion, only 3 new members were added during Yeltsin's tenure, of which only one (Poland) bordered Russia. In comparison, 9 were added during Putin's reign (not including Montenegro), of which 3 bordered Russia, and of which two effectively sealed off the western coast of the Black Sea. I think that you would be hard pressed to find an analyst who would suggest at any time that the Black Sea Fleet every would have vacated Crimea, or that Russia would allow the Russian-speaking enclaves in the former Soviet Union to be forcibly assimilated by their host countries.

As far as nuclear weapons go, Putin's doctrine is not markedly different from that of the Soviet Union, other than telegraphing that it would use nuclear weapons to stave off conventional defeat and invasion. Certainly, the nuclear saber-rattling is worse than even at the height of the Cold War, yet Putin has found that reforming the Russian military has been a much harder and more glacial process than he initially believed. Russia currently has only 100,000 professional soldiers that it can really rely upon, including Internal Troops/National Guard Spetsnaz units, and many time zones to spread them across. It is sufficient to crush Georgia, deter Ukraine's ATO and overrun the Baltics, but not enough to conquer Poland, occupy all of Ukraine, or defeat NATO's RRF when it surges into the area. Therefore, this posturing is intended to mask conventional inferiority. The notion of nuclear "de-escalation" is ludicrous as neither NATO nor Warsaw Pact/Soviet planners ever believed that there could be a limited nuclear war. If NATO is as weak as some of these analysts claim and lacking in tactical nuclear capabilities, then Putin is faced with a dangerous redux of the New Look/First Offset, whereby NATO would be forced to defend the Baltics with strategic ballistic missiles. In addition, NATO accepted for decades that it could not hold West Berlin or all of Germany against a Warsaw Pact onslaught, but now the temporary loss of Narva is unacceptable?

Thirdly, Putin's regime is inherently less stable than the institutionalized CPSU, meaning that Andropov-esque decision-making becomes even more dangerous. Nevertheless, analysts are interested in hyping the Russian threat to NATO in order to provide more funds for the US Army (largely without a mission now save air defense) and the shrinking NATO establishments. They are less interested in studying Putin's behavior, which would indicate that he has greater interests in Belarus and Kazakhstan than any NATO member states, and that while he will intervene to prevent a state becoming a NATO member, he does not want a conflict with the United States.

Azor....all good points but that is rational western thinking...you must place yourself into the current mindset of Putin and company...I often use the quote..."they are in an altered state of reality" to sum up their actions lately.

In some ways Putin and company totally hate being ignored on their path to be accepted again as a "so called superpower".

And those in such a state do not always think rationally or logically.

There is a good example of this in the A2/AD article where I posted a comment today...in the "old days" the USAF had to bdeal with A2/AD belts composed of SA5/6/8s now the Russian A2/AD bubbles are well thought through and truly are designed to support Russia in a quick war...emphasis here is on "quick" and to deny NATO critical air space for a SEAD attack.

BTW the defined use of a "tactical nuclear first strike" was first openly used by Putin in 2014 with their release of their new nuclear doctrine a rewrite of 2013 and it was not in any of their older nuclear doctrine ie SU days.

BTW...it did not get much notice in US MSM nor a rise out of the Obama WH nor has the Obama WH and the US MSM gotten a rise out of the multiple violations by Russia of the INF.

Again all designed to support a "quick war".....remember it takes all 28 NATO members in complete agreement to pull the Article 5 trigger and to go tactical nuclear is really questionable on NATO's part. I am not even sure the US and NATO even today has a tactical missile delivered nuke ability anymore???

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 07:22 AM
Reference the Russian shot down of MH17....Russia seems to accept they will in the end be charged as the shot down party and are going over to simply ignoring the issue from their POV.

A new low even for Kremlin: Russia news agency says it doesn't matter who fired the missile which killed 300 #MH17
http://m.ria.ru/analytics/20160609/1444959648.html …

"Who needs the truth on MH17? It won't bring the victims back, so what's the difference?"

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 07:22 AM
Russian armed forces opened fire 46 times upon Ukrainian troops positions in southeast #Ukraine over the last day - ATO official

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 01:22 PM
Footage (May 2016)
The #Minsk "ceasefire" keeps taking a heavy toll.
50+WIA Ukis in June.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyJRkfsdO60&oref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dq yJRkfsdO60&has_verified=1 …
UAF loses for the month of MAY.....29 KIA.....97 WIA......

Ukraine Reports 46 Attacks Yesterday, With At Least 18 More After Midnight
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-844/#14165

SBU says "foreign intel" behind attempts to create another pseudo-republic in Ukraine
http://www.unian.info/society/1371742-sbu-says-foreign-intel-behind-attempts-to-create-another-pseudo-republic-in-ukraine.html …

Russia warns of countermeasures to U.S. vessels entering Black Sea
http://www.unian.info/world/1371786-russia-warns-of-countermeasures-to-us-vessels-entering-black-sea.html …

Russia 'ready to destabilize half of Eurasia' – Georgian President
http://www.unian.info/world/1371702-russia-ready-to-destabilize-half-of-eurasia-georgian-president.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 02:10 PM
BUT WAIT Russia and her mercenaries have not complied with a single point in Minsk 2..just ask the OSCE SMM..........another Russian "vodka moment"......

MFA Russia
✔ @mfa_russia #Lukashevich: Donbass elections, amnesty, special status for Donbass region are all issues of fundamental importance
http://bit.ly/28pV3Ur

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 06:34 PM
Militants brought 36 Grad systems back to the contact line – intelligence
http://uacrisis.org/44092-rozvidka-7 …

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 06:41 PM
It is and has always been about the Obama "legacy"...nothing more nothing less.....

Susan Rice says US pushing for Russia-Ukraine peace deal before Obama leaves office. Wishful thinking if you ask me.

Could a Russia-Ukraine Deal be Possible by Early 2017?

By Reuters On 6/10/16 at 3:13 AM


WASHINGTON (Reuters)—The White House is pushing hard to have a Russia-Ukraine peace deal implemented by the time President Barack Obama leaves office, top national security adviser Susan Rice said on Thursday.

Rice, who coordinates foreign policy at the White House, said she saw potential for resolution in the Ukraine crisis by the end of the year, and said U.S. officials were intensifying their work with French and German counterparts on the Minsk deal, signed in February 2015.

"This is something that could get done between now and the end of the administration if the Russians in particular exhibit sufficient political will," Rice said at a Washington Post event. Obama is set to leave office on January 20, 2017.

"We are hopeful if the Russians want to resolve this—and we have some reason to believe they might—we have the time and the wherewithal and the tools to do so," Rice said.
More than 9,000 people have been killed since April 2014 in violence between Russian-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine and the Kiev government.

The United States and European Union have stood firm on economic sanctions on Russia pending progress implementing security measures and electoral reforms included in the Minsk ceasefire deal. EU leaders are set to weigh extending the sanctions at a summit at the end of June.

Rice said she would not put odds on whether it would happen, and acknowledged that time could run short, noting "there are no sure bets" that the Ukrainian parliament would be able to ratify electoral reforms that are part of the agreement.


BUT WAIT...appears Susan Rice did not calculate this occurring did she........???
Ukr positions at #Krasnohorivka are under russian heavy mortar 120m fire now.

UAF loses for May from Russian army and her mercenary attacks...29 KIA and 97 WIA......

NOT so sure Susan Rice really understands the ground reality in eastern Ukraine....from this evening on the front lines.....

21:48 #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ Hell in #Avdiivka, red glow is seen from Horlivka [no reports from Avdiivka about, so far]

21:49 #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ Outskirts of #Hluboka: 30 min freq GLs and smtms mortars. Hardware on move spotted in the northwest

Avdiivka @666_mancer [vk]
21:37 in the area of semaphore, bullets have just whistled too and hit fence

21:30 #Avdiivka @GirkinGirkin [vk?] #Lomonosova: bullets whistle, crazy!

ATO spox: Militant casualties: 2 KIA, 3 WIA as car hit the minefield set by militants. Skirmishes: 2 KIA, 4 WIA http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/10-june-ato-spox-militant-casualties-2-kia-3-wia-as-car-hit …

AND from the Russian social media front line side.......
21:42 #Krasnohorivka @Huyovyi_Kolhoz "[fr/#Staromykhaylivka RU] pound w/mortars at UA positions, we're smoking, waiting for reply fire"

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 07:04 PM
REPORT: #RUSSIA BEHIND CYBERATTACKS ON #MH17 INVESTIGATION TEAM
http://www.nltimes.nl/2016/06/10/report-russia-behind-cyberattacks-mh17-investigation-team/ …

Bundesverfassungsschutz confirms: last year's hacking on DSB (and on @bellingcat , and on me, a.o.) were from FSB: http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/25967968/__Moskou_achter_cyberaanval_OVV__.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 07:52 PM
“@GeoffPyatt: Over last few weeks Russia's separatists have engaged in a strategy of making the @OSCE_SMM monitoring mission blind

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2016, 08:28 PM
It is and has always been about the Obama "legacy"...nothing more nothing less.....

Susan Rice says US pushing for Russia-Ukraine peace deal before Obama leaves office. Wishful thinking if you ask me.

Could a Russia-Ukraine Deal be Possible by Early 2017?

By Reuters On 6/10/16 at 3:13 AM



BUT WAIT...appears Susan Rice did not calculate this occurring did she........???
Ukr positions at #Krasnohorivka are under russian heavy mortar 120m fire now.

UAF loses for May from Russian army and her mercenary attacks...29 KIA and 97 WIA......

NOT so sure Susan Rice really understands the ground reality in eastern Ukraine....from this evening on the front lines.....

21:48 #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ Hell in #Avdiivka, red glow is seen from Horlivka [no reports from Avdiivka about, so far]

21:49 #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ Outskirts of #Hluboka: 30 min freq GLs and smtms mortars. Hardware on move spotted in the northwest

Avdiivka @666_mancer [vk]
21:37 in the area of semaphore, bullets have just whistled too and hit fence

21:30 #Avdiivka @GirkinGirkin [vk?] #Lomonosova: bullets whistle, crazy!

ATO spox: Militant casualties: 2 KIA, 3 WIA as car hit the minefield set by militants. Skirmishes: 2 KIA, 4 WIA
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/10-june-ato-spox-militant-casualties-2-kia-3-wia-as-car-hit …

AND from the Russian social media front line side.......
21:42 #Krasnohorivka @Huyovyi_Kolhoz "[fr/#Staromykhaylivka RU] pound w/mortars at UA positions, we're smoking, waiting for reply fire"

Donetsk ~22:10
Proletarka - Strong rumble towards #Yasynuvata-#Avdiivka

Maryinka
22:20 - Mortars, heavy machine guns, dense AGLs fire
22:39 - Calmed down a bit

22:31 #Horlivka
Shyroka Balka - shooting, machine guns, AA-gun
https://twitter.com/ahab9889/status/741352183803826176 …

Donetsk Abakumova VK: 22:39 - Four very loud "ka-booms".
https://twitter.com/Vika7Victoria/status/741356271069241345 …

22:40 #Krasnohorivka-#Staromykhailivka - local skirmish continues, shooting, mortars.
https://twitter.com/Vika7Victoria/status/741357542467604480 …

22:56 #Horlivka towards West is becoming louder and louder.
https://twitter.com/gorlovkaonline/status/741358493454741504 …

22:44 #Avdiivka's Promzone: battle continues with mortars, small arms.
https://twitter.com/Vika7Victoria/status/741361197866450945 …

23:19 #Horlivka - in the distance hearing incoming fire. Also AA-gun shooting.
https://twitter.com/tgorlovka_news/status/741364114912579586 …

23:16 #Horlivka In the North-West shooting from smth heavy. Also hearing small arms.
https://twitter.com/tgorlovka_news/status/741363547444281344 …

Azor
06-10-2016, 10:50 PM
Azor....all good points but that is rational western thinking...you must place yourself into the current mindset of Putin and company...I often use the quote..."they are in an altered state of reality" to sum up their actions lately.

In some ways Putin and company totally hate being ignored on their path to be accepted again as a "so called superpower".

And those in such a state do not always think rationally or logically.

There is a good example of this in the A2/AD article where I posted a comment today...in the "old days" the USAF had to bdeal with A2/AD belts composed of SA5/6/8s now the Russian A2/AD bubbles are well thought through and truly are designed to support Russia in a quick war...emphasis here is on "quick" and to deny NATO critical air space for a SEAD attack.

BTW the defined use of a "tactical nuclear first strike" was first openly used by Putin in 2014 with their release of their new nuclear doctrine a rewrite of 2013 and it was not in any of their older nuclear doctrine ie SU days.

BTW...it did not get much notice in US MSM nor a rise out of the Obama WH nor has the Obama WH and the US MSM gotten a rise out of the multiple violations by Russia of the INF.

Again all designed to support a "quick war".....remember it takes all 28 NATO members in complete agreement to pull the Article 5 trigger and to go tactical nuclear is really questionable on NATO's part. I am not even sure the US and NATO even today has a tactical missile delivered nuke ability anymore???

1. Putin is certainly a showman, but his actions have been much more measured than his words. Russia could have acted much more destructively in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, and rhetoric and posturing notwithstanding, the Kremlin has used military force relatively minimally to secure its objectives. We have to look at the '90s as a blip and look at Russia's historical trend, which is aggressive.

2. The Kremlin has given no indication that it intends to attack any NATO members or that it is less respectful of the alliance's deterrence than in prior years. Russia's response to the Su-24 shootdown was telling, as had Russia responded with force, I doubt that NATO would come to an Article V consensus.

3. Indeed, Russian SAMs are more prominent now than during the Soviet era, although Russia has a fraction of Soviet land warfare capabilities. On paper these systems seem relatively superior to the Soviet "single-digit" ones on a time and technology-adjusted basis, however, US precision-strike capabilities also continue to improve. One would have to ask CrowBat about how effective the double-digit SAMs would be in combat against the current US strike force.

4. I read your comments on SEAD. On the one hand, there is good reason to believe that the USAF and USMC were forced into low-end strike missions in support of the War on Terror, at the expense of preparing for high-end missions. This probably explains the AF's desire to rid itself of the A-10, which while highly useful in Afghanistan and Iraq, would be unable to fight in a contested environment. On the other hand, from what I can gather, SEAD will be performed differently in the future, by the F-35 instead of a dedicated aircraft.

5. Russia abandoned its no-first use of nuclear weapons as early as 1992 and the 2014 doctrine isn't substantially different from the 2000 one. Certainly the notion of "de-escalation" via a tactical first strike is alarming, but it is part of broader nuclear saber-rattling, and one can be assured that both the US and Russia have contingency plans for "limited" nuclear warfare, however improbable it may be. Indeed, the entire argument for replacing the AGM-86 is to provide the POTUS with "more options".

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 10:44 AM
1. Putin is certainly a showman, but his actions have been much more measured than his words. Russia could have acted much more destructively in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, and rhetoric and posturing notwithstanding, the Kremlin has used military force relatively minimally to secure its objectives. We have to look at the '90s as a blip and look at Russia's historical trend, which is aggressive.

2. The Kremlin has given no indication that it intends to attack any NATO members or that it is less respectful of the alliance's deterrence than in prior years. Russia's response to the Su-24 shootdown was telling, as had Russia responded with force, I doubt that NATO would come to an Article V consensus.

3. Indeed, Russian SAMs are more prominent now than during the Soviet era, although Russia has a fraction of Soviet land warfare capabilities. On paper these systems seem relatively superior to the Soviet "single-digit" ones on a time and technology-adjusted basis, however, US precision-strike capabilities also continue to improve. One would have to ask CrowBat about how effective the double-digit SAMs would be in combat against the current US strike force.

4. I read your comments on SEAD. On the one hand, there is good reason to believe that the USAF and USMC were forced into low-end strike missions in support of the War on Terror, at the expense of preparing for high-end missions. This probably explains the AF's desire to rid itself of the A-10, which while highly useful in Afghanistan and Iraq, would be unable to fight in a contested environment. On the other hand, from what I can gather, SEAD will be performed differently in the future, by the F-35 instead of a dedicated aircraft.

5. Russia abandoned its no-first use of nuclear weapons as early as 1992 and the 2014 doctrine isn't substantially different from the 2000 one. Certainly the notion of "de-escalation" via a tactical first strike is alarming, but it is part of broader nuclear saber-rattling, and one can be assured that both the US and Russia have contingency plans for "limited" nuclear warfare, however improbable it may be. Indeed, the entire argument for replacing the AGM-86 is to provide the POTUS with "more options".

Azor....the comment concerning Russia was not that "destructive" in say Georgia, eastern Ukraine and now Syria...those civil societies might in fact have a minor disagreement with you on that point.

Take currently Georgia...Russia is involved in an ever so slowly conducted annexation of further Georgian territory by simply crossing the demarcation lines....putting up a new border warning sign say another 500meters or so inside actual Georgian territory and then suddenly moving the entire border barrier in the middle of the night to just right behind the signs....they have now done this three times in the last six months expanding another 1.5kms inside Georgia territory and yet Georgia complains and the West says nothing..absolutely nothing....

Take Syria....the RuAF under the Putin geo political goals is systematically destroying Syrian cities, town and villages doing exactly what Russia did in the two Chechnen wars...exactly the same thing....AND again not a single comment from the West concerning their war crimes and or their support to the Assad genocidal campaign directed against Arab Sunni's.

Take eastern Ukraine.....with their constant and I mean serious and constant attacks on UAF positions with 29 KIA and 97 WIA just for May alone...ALL the while complaining Ukraine does not fulfill Minsk 2 while Russia has not fulfilled a single and I mean a single point in Minsk 2......not so sure the UAF would accept the term..."not so destructive".
More casualties among soldiers and civilians. More often we see civilian areas at or away from frontline being shelled directly

And the use of a tactical nuclear first strike "de-escalation"being exercised in every single Russian "snap exercise" in the last three years is not a decisive enough warning to the West of intent?

Think about it.....BTW this might in fact be the indicator that the so called trying to gain "so called superpower status via aggression" maybe ending sooner than we thought.......

Russians changed their views on what it means to be a superpower since 2014. Now it's about modern economy, not army
https://slon.ru/posts/69277

Maybe Russians after all the massive propaganda thrown at them are finally seeing that food is much more expensive than before 2014, that their salaries have fallen badly since 2014, that the economy has basically come to a standstill, that they cannot afford to even go on vacations as they did before 2014, that pensions are falling and will not be raised any time soon all since 2014....maybe just maybe they are awakening to the fact that to be a superpower it requires a "superpower" economy to support it.....BTW there are indicators that the propaganda being thrown at them is no longer really pulling them in the direction that Putin wants them to go in........

BTW..there is still a lot we do not fully understand about Russian developments under Putin.....
Chilling @novaya_gazeta report on secret Russian interior ministry prison discovered in Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia. http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/73418.html …

Moderator adds: last link has an English option, but it will not link to the cited article - which is in Russian.

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 10:56 AM
The @OSCE_SMM mounted a camera to monitor who is shelling who in #Avdeevka.
So militants turned off the electricity.

Footage
#Russia's proxies destroy Ukrainian army BMP-2 near #Pisky (claim).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa06REvA2uI …

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 01:22 PM
Kremlin's Russia Today propaganda channel booted out of Argentina. No more broadcasting
http://www.rferl.org/content/argentina-announces-suspension-russian-state-rt-news-broadcasts/27791747.html …

Ukraine's Russian-annexed #Crimea, short of cash, starts taxing water collected from rain
http://24today.net/open/672345

Russian checkpoint on Crimean border stopped operating
http://qha.com.ua/en/events-incidents/russian-checkpoint-on-crimean-border-stopped-operating/russian-checkpoint-on-crimean-border-stopped-operating/137492/ …

"Putin's goal: to split Europe from US, to weaken both sides of Atlantic, make sure no influential Europe emerges" http://www.transatlanticacademy.org/node/941

EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Similar to KGB practices in the 1980's. Read the latest #DisinfoReview for more:
http://eepurl.com/b4Rw7L

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 02:27 PM
Video from #Horlivka last night, heavy artillery can be heard:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJoEhz6p-Us …

Footage
The front near #Donetsk last night.
War resumed at full pace w/almost all weapons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6wuayAf60w …

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 02:42 PM
Azor....the comment concerning Russia was not that "destructive" in say Georgia, eastern Ukraine and now Syria...those civil societies might in fact have a minor disagreement with you on that point.

Take currently Georgia...Russia is involved in an ever so slowly conducted annexation of further Georgian territory by simply crossing the demarcation lines....putting up a new border warning sign say another 500meters or so inside actual Georgian territory and then suddenly moving the entire border barrier in the middle of the night to just right behind the signs....they have now done this three times in the last six months expanding another 1.5kms inside Georgia territory and yet Georgia complains and the West says nothing..absolutely nothing....

Take Syria....the RuAF under the Putin geo political goals is systematically destroying Syrian cities, town and villages doing exactly what Russia did in the two Chechnen wars...exactly the same thing....AND again not a single comment from the West concerning their war crimes and or their support to the Assad genocidal campaign directed against Arab Sunni's.

Take eastern Ukraine.....with their constant and I mean serious and constant attacks on UAF positions with 29 KIA and 97 WIA just for May alone...ALL the while complaining Ukraine does not fulfill Minsk 2 while Russia has not fulfilled a single and I mean a single point in Minsk 2......not so sure the UAF would accept the term..."not so destructive".
More casualties among soldiers and civilians. More often we see civilian areas at or away from frontline being shelled directly

And the use of a tactical nuclear first strike "de-escalation"being exercised in every single Russian "snap exercise" in the last three years is not a decisive enough warning to the West of intent?

Think about it.....BTW this might in fact be the indicator that the so called trying to gain "so called superpower status via aggression" maybe ending sooner than we thought.......

Russians changed their views on what it means to be a superpower since 2014. Now it's about modern economy, not army
https://slon.ru/posts/69277

Maybe Russians after all the massive propaganda thrown at them are finally seeing that food is much more expensive than before 2014, that their salaries have fallen badly since 2014, that the economy has basically come to a standstill, that they cannot afford to even go on vacations as they did before 2014, that pensions are falling and will not be raised any time soon all since 2014....maybe just maybe they are awakening to the fact that to be a superpower it requires a "superpower" economy to support it.....BTW there are indicators that the propaganda being thrown at them is no longer really pulling them in the direction that Putin wants them to go in........

BTW..there is still a lot we do not fully understand about Russian developments under Putin.....
Chilling @novaya_gazeta report on secret Russian interior ministry prison discovered in Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia. http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/73418.html …

Duplicate link removed.

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 02:48 PM
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russians-violating-new-start-arms-treaty/?utm_source=Freedom+Mail&utm_campaign=a927c22488-WFB_Morning_Beacon_06_09_166_8_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b5e6e0e9ea-a927c22488-46005157

Did Russia Violate the New START Arms Treaty?


Continued..........

The Obama administration’s record for responding to arms cheating by Russia is weak. The State Department, which is in charge of monitoring treaty compliance, hid Moscow’s violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty for several years to avoid upsetting its arms control agenda.

The INF violation was finally made public in 2014 after prodding from Congress in a State Department report that said the violation involved Russia’s development of illegal ground-launched cruise missiles.

NOTE: BTW those illegal ground launched cruise missiles have been fired in anger into Syria....verifying their existence....

According to the State Department web site, there have been four “Type 2” on-site inspections since February under New START. Type 2 inspections are those used for confirming missile eliminations like those used for the SS-25.

The location of the April treaty inspection could not be learned.

Known locations where Russia has deployed SS-25s at bases include Yoshkar-Ola, Vypolzovo, Irkutsk, and Barnaul, according to the Russian strategic nuclear forces blog.

In February, Secretary of State John Kerry hailed the fifth anniversary of the New START treaty as a “landmark” arms control accord.

“New START is more important now than when it went into effect. It gives us the confidence and level of oversight we need— and could not otherwise have— by allowing U.S. inspectors unprecedented access to Russian nuclear facilities,” Kerry said.

However, Russia has voiced less enthusiasm for the treaty. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in April that New START will be an “end document” for U.S.-Russian arms control relations.

Asked if New START is a final accord, Ryabkov told Interfax, “Saying ‘final’ is not fashionable today. I would say that this document will obviously become an end document because, indeed, it has an end position on this scale of coordinates, where the time scale goes to the right and the quantity scale goes upwards, in other words, it is the quantity of weapons slated for limitation.”

The treaty calls for both Washington and Moscow to pare their nuclear arsenals to 700 deployed land-based and sea-based missiles and heavy bombers, 1,550 deployed warheads, and 800 non-deployed launchers and bombers.

Last Saturday, Anita Friedt, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for arms control verification and compliance, gave a speech that gave no suggestion there are problems with New START verification.

“Buttressed by this robust verification architecture, New START treaty implementation is proceeding well and both the United States and Russia are expected to meet the treaty’s central limits when they take effect in February 2018,” she said.

However, Friedt said New START verification measures, despite their intrusiveness, “may not be sufficient for effective verification in the future.”

The House fiscal 2017 defense authorization bill contains a provision that if passed would prohibit the Pentagon from spending any funds to implement New START until Pentagon officials reported to Congress about the treaty’s impact on critical defense capabilities.

The provision would block funding until the defense secretary and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff assessed the treaty’s impact on U.S. rapid reload of ballistic missiles and the impact of the treaty on U.S. deterrent strategy.

The bill also would require an assessment of the threat posed by non-treaty-limited nuclear or strategic conventional systems to the United States and American allies and of the risk posed by Russian arms violations. It would require an explanation of why continued treaty implementation is in U.S. national security interests.


Azor......does this sound like a sane Russia waning to actually fulfill their treaty obligations in stead of sidestepping or violating them since 2006....

One major violation that the Obama WH and the US MSM has not picked up on is the required destruction of tanks, and fighting vehicles under two binding OSCE agreements.....numbers which reached into the low thousands of both categories...Russia asked and got an initial pushback date because Russia was involved in the Chechen 2 war. and stated it needed the armor and then they would destroy them later...BUT they have never destroyed a single armored vehicle to this date.

BTW..all European NATO countries fulfilled their destruction numbers which has resulted in extremely low numbers of MBTs in NATO right now and this if one looks at was the main reason for deploying US armor back to the US to met those OSCE numbers.

THEN suddenly all those supposedly due for destruction T72B3s and T80s appeared in eastern Ukraine and are still there.

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 03:11 PM
Russia|n 45 Specialised Brigade (Kubinka, #Moscow) is involved in #EastUkraine - MoD rt @RutheniaRus
pic.twitter.com/iulaLIrPjz

Play "divide and re-conquer" to get back Donbas? Why not, asks @Euan_MacDonald
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/euan-macdonald-divide-and-re-conquer-415935.html?utm_content=buffer9496a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer …

Horlivka last night.
Listen in! #Russia's troops in the town use artillery vs #Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJoEhz6p-Us …

Russia propaganda hits new low: RT dramatization of Ukraine killing Russian speakers in Crimea–if not for hero Putin
https://twitter.com/rt_russian/status/740789328230666240 …
Putin planning smthing? Why does Russia need new anti-Ukraine fear fantasy preying on fears of language, nationalism

Overnight pro Russians attacked Toretsk with 152mm artillery, many houses destroyed, there are injured civilians
Toretsk is about 10km away from the frontline.

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 03:24 PM
Remains of Russian army servicemen found in Ukraine's east
http://24today.net/open/672557

Two bodies with Russian army insignia unearthed in Luhansk region


The Evacuation 200 body recovery mission under the Armed Forces of Ukraine has found the remains of two soldiers with Russian army chevrons near the village of Krymske in Luhansk region, according to Hromadske TV.

The grave site was found due to a sign with the name, the birth and death dates of a fighter, who was buried there. The sign reads: "Sergey Shirolapov, 09.02.1971 – 19.02.2015. Novorossiya's Militia."

"One more grave site has been spotted. We're retrieving the remains for further examination," Evacuation 200 coordinator Mykhailo Kotylevsky said.

One of the dead bodies had a fragment of the clothes with a chevron saying "Russia – the Armed Forces." The second body has not been identified yet.

"Every soldier who died in this territory shall be buried. This is our understanding of humaneness, and it should be so. Just because of this, our organization, Evacuation 200, is able to cross the contact line in this or that direction. We don't label the dead as ours or the enemy's," participant in the Evacuation 200 project Oleksiy Yukov said.

The remains will be sent to the Severodonetsk morgue for examination. Samples will be taken for DNA examination. Then the members of the organization will try to get into contact with the dead soldiers' families for the transfer of the bodies.


10 Russian soldiers destroyed, 22 injured over week, - Defense Intelligence

11.06.2016 16:50

As reported by Censor.NET, an increase in Russia's combat activity at the Donetsk, Mariupol, and Volnovakha directions results in losses among Russian servicemen of the 1st Army Corps. According to the Main Intelligence Department of Ukraine's MoD, "the enemy continues to suffer significant losses making at least 10 killed and about 22 wounded per week."

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 05:40 PM
Russia is attacking the OSCE: shooting down drones, blinding cameras, deploying rent-a-mobs. Bizarrely, RU is a member of OSCE.

Russia "disappears" (kidnaps & murders) Crimean Tatars; shells, rockets Ukraine daily. This is what the German FM Steinmeier says: https://twitter.com/112newsfeed/status/741662187098386433 …

Ukraine says it lost 2 soldiers KIA, 10 WIA during heavy fighting in the east. Denies reports of an offensive.

20:34 #Marinka UA positions @missi8111 AGLs wear local inhabitants out, fragment fly over the town

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 05:50 PM
Russian shelling's and ground attacks are ongoing .....

Frontline active also on #Horlivka's outskirts: Mayorsk, Shyroka Balka, Holma.

21:20 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]
#medical school: loudly
#Kholodna_Balka" we can hear it for about 10 min so far

21:20 Heavy explosions on #Avdiivka's outskirts.

Avdiivka 21:21 Heavy incoming at the Promzone.

21:20 @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#Makiivka #center: powerfully, singles
#Donetsk #Azotnyi: we can hear far explosions, strong ones

21:20 #Makiivka #Zalenyi @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] Strong singles rumble

21:13 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 one can hear heavy explosions, probably 120mm, salvo sound is barely heard. 20-25 so far and it goes on

21:10 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] a cannon is shelling

21:12 #Avdiivka @VadyXaXa "methodically and heavily"

21:11 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 Since 21:10 till now heavy landings continue

21:10 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza #Promka is already noisy

21:10 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] a cannon is shelling

21:10 #Makiivka @VasyaMakeevskiy It is similar to salvos from the area of #bypass-#Yagodka, plus salvos are heard fr/#Mineralne direction

21:08 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Firing started in the N-NW

21:04 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM The evening begins. Battle started in the west
#donbasreports

21:06 #Makiivka #Vostochnyi @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] sounds loudly

20:55 #Toretsk @serg4er "Warm-up" begins, at first AA-gun, now it started to boom a bit

20:34 #Marinka UA positions @missi8111 AGLs wear local inhabitants out, fragment fly over the town

20:25 #Marinka #Zelenyi_Hai @rjpthjuljytwr Again in the direction of #boarding school

20:27 #Marinka UA positions @missi8111 not quiet, battle continues for almost 2 hours...

20:16 #Donetsk #Trudovski @rjpthjuljytwr continue listening, there was a short pause, but not for long, to be continued

20:15 #Donetsk #Petrovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]feels like SA bursts are coming fr/#Trudovski&#Oleksandrivka dir'n. Arty booms in #Marinka dir'n

20:12 #Donetsk @KarachenU Battle noise reaches periodically #Kirovskyi ds from the direction of #Krasnohorivka

18:57 #Horlivka @ahab9889 Has it seemed to me or it boomed?
@occupation79 Yes and strongly

[B]EastUkraine: 5 border crossings from Russia to Ukraine in the last week with heavy weapon, ammunition, fuel - MoD.

18:35 #Marinka @faina_ukr area of #boarding school: high intensity of the battle

18:15 #Donetsk #Trudovski @rjpthjuljytwr noisy, seriuos bangs and booms started so far...

Krasnohorivka @666_mancer [vk]
15:00 relatively quiet, from time to time one can hear far shooting
16:00 quiet

Toretsk last night shelling aftermath, 7 homes damaged, no injuries

17:58 #Marinka @faina_ukr area of #boarding school: battle begins

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 06:11 PM
Toretsk is the city 10 kms NW to Horlivka. First major attack there
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/11-june-russian-forces-shelled-civil-blocks-in-toretsk-with …

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2016, 07:04 PM
1. Putin is certainly a showman, but his actions have been much more measured than his words. Russia could have acted much more destructively in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, and rhetoric and posturing notwithstanding, the Kremlin has used military force relatively minimally to secure its objectives. We have to look at the '90s as a blip and look at Russia's historical trend, which is aggressive.

2. The Kremlin has given no indication that it intends to attack any NATO members or that it is less respectful of the alliance's deterrence than in prior years. Russia's response to the Su-24 shootdown was telling, as had Russia responded with force, I doubt that NATO would come to an Article V consensus.

3. Indeed, Russian SAMs are more prominent now than during the Soviet era, although Russia has a fraction of Soviet land warfare capabilities. On paper these systems seem relatively superior to the Soviet "single-digit" ones on a time and technology-adjusted basis, however, US precision-strike capabilities also continue to improve. One would have to ask CrowBat about how effective the double-digit SAMs would be in combat against the current US strike force.

4. I read your comments on SEAD. On the one hand, there is good reason to believe that the USAF and USMC were forced into low-end strike missions in support of the War on Terror, at the expense of preparing for high-end missions. This probably explains the AF's desire to rid itself of the A-10, which while highly useful in Afghanistan and Iraq, would be unable to fight in a contested environment. On the other hand, from what I can gather, SEAD will be performed differently in the future, by the F-35 instead of a dedicated aircraft.

5. Russia abandoned its no-first use of nuclear weapons as early as 1992 and the 2014 doctrine isn't substantially different from the 2000 one. Certainly the notion of "de-escalation" via a tactical first strike is alarming, but it is part of broader nuclear saber-rattling, and one can be assured that both the US and Russia have contingency plans for "limited" nuclear warfare, however improbable it may be. Indeed, the entire argument for replacing the AGM-86 is to provide the POTUS with "more options".

Azor...highly recommend you read this article into the thinking of what I call the "Russian altered state of reality"......

Some solid insight in what we are seeing from Putin....

Playing Tic-Tac-Toe with Putin
http://atfp.co/25Swld3
Russia is playing chess in Syria. The United States is playing tic-tac-toe

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 06:14 AM
Russian info warfare hard at work creating "fake" news portals.....AND "fake" journalists"......

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
Here's one example of fake 'Forest Echo News' concocting "journos" out of thin air (and other people's photos).

This fake company steals photos of real journos, using them for profile pics of their 109+ faux journos. Their quotes are used by Rus media.

Who's this 'Forest Echo News' journo? Nobody - they just made up a name and stole a picture from a shirt sales ad.

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
Here is how fake 'Forest Echo News' reacted to being questioned: first protecting, then deleting their account.

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 06:58 AM
SEEMS Putin appears to have totally forgotten this when he blames NATO and anyone else other that Russia for the total collapse of the former Soviet Union...

Something to think about when Putin takes off with the NATO is to blame game....as he "apparently" forgot even recent Russian history...

26 years ago on this day, Russia adopted the declaration of sovereignty, which precipitated the collapse of the USSR

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 07:02 AM
Russian shelling's and ground attacks are ongoing .....

Frontline active also on #Horlivka's outskirts: Mayorsk, Shyroka Balka, Holma.

21:20 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]
#medical school: loudly
#Kholodna_Balka" we can hear it for about 10 min so far

21:20 Heavy explosions on #Avdiivka's outskirts.

Avdiivka 21:21 Heavy incoming at the Promzone.

21:20 @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#Makiivka #center: powerfully, singles
#Donetsk #Azotnyi: we can hear far explosions, strong ones

21:20 #Makiivka #Zalenyi @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] Strong singles rumble

21:13 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 one can hear heavy explosions, probably 120mm, salvo sound is barely heard. 20-25 so far and it goes on

21:10 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] a cannon is shelling

21:12 #Avdiivka @VadyXaXa "methodically and heavily"

21:11 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 Since 21:10 till now heavy landings continue

21:10 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza #Promka is already noisy

21:10 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] a cannon is shelling

21:10 #Makiivka @VasyaMakeevskiy It is similar to salvos from the area of #bypass-#Yagodka, plus salvos are heard fr/#Mineralne direction

21:08 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Firing started in the N-NW

21:04 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM The evening begins. Battle started in the west
#donbasreports

21:06 #Makiivka #Vostochnyi @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] sounds loudly

20:55 #Toretsk @serg4er "Warm-up" begins, at first AA-gun, now it started to boom a bit

20:34 #Marinka UA positions @missi8111 AGLs wear local inhabitants out, fragment fly over the town

20:25 #Marinka #Zelenyi_Hai @rjpthjuljytwr Again in the direction of #boarding school

20:27 #Marinka UA positions @missi8111 not quiet, battle continues for almost 2 hours...

20:16 #Donetsk #Trudovski @rjpthjuljytwr continue listening, there was a short pause, but not for long, to be continued

20:15 #Donetsk #Petrovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]feels like SA bursts are coming fr/#Trudovski&#Oleksandrivka dir'n. Arty booms in #Marinka dir'n

20:12 #Donetsk @KarachenU Battle noise reaches periodically #Kirovskyi ds from the direction of #Krasnohorivka

18:57 #Horlivka @ahab9889 Has it seemed to me or it boomed?
@occupation79 Yes and strongly

[B]EastUkraine: 5 border crossings from Russia to Ukraine in the last week with heavy weapon, ammunition, fuel - MoD.

18:35 #Marinka @faina_ukr area of #boarding school: high intensity of the battle

18:15 #Donetsk #Trudovski @rjpthjuljytwr noisy, seriuos bangs and booms started so far...

Krasnohorivka @666_mancer [vk]
15:00 relatively quiet, from time to time one can hear far shooting
16:00 quiet

Toretsk last night shelling aftermath, 7 homes damaged, no injuries

17:58 #Marinka @faina_ukr area of #boarding school: battle begins

Russian shelling's and ground attacks where intensive and long last night...

Makiivka was listening to ka-booms all night, exactly like in 2014.
https://twitter.com/_TheHorse_/status/741881778026250241 …

NOT sure anymore if Russia and Putin totally have their mercenaries under control..if they in fact do then Russia is dead set on starting up massive fighting again in order to pressure Ukraine into a military compromise based on the Susan Rice article indicating that Obama is ready to throw Ukraine under the bus to get his "peace treaty" on his legacy record before leaving office...

Fighting is still ongoing this morning.....

9:43 #Donetsk Proletarsky - hearing ka-booms of different intensity, 1 times loudly and AA-gun.
https://twitter.com/DoneckiiPatriot/status/741884516361506817 …

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 07:11 AM
NATO is holding the biggest exercise in Poland in a decade, and Russia Is not happy:
http://bit.ly/1UsAJHW

Russia can shot down an unarmed civilian airliner killing nearly 300 and can militarily annex Crimea BUT NATO cannot hold OSCE announced large exercises AFTER Russia held since 2014 over 40 OSCE required to be announced exercises BUT Russia did not announce their "snap exercises"....

Appears Russia has a serious lack of wanting to adhere to any agreement these days...AND naturally blames "others".

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 07:19 AM
Combined Rus-militant forces fired 49 times over the last day: 24 in Mariupol sector, 19 and 6 in Donetsk and Luhansk sec - ATO press center

An attack rate of around 50 Russian attacks per day is considered on the eastern Ukraine front line to be a FULLSCALE war.....

So as the western MSM sleep walks through a war with virtually no coverage so does the entire western political leadership led by the Obama WH and a totally ineffective DoS Kerry.

Kerry stated awhile ago ...if the Russians are willing a solution could be found and the sanctions will be lifted...THEN Susan Rice announced Obama "wants a peaceful settlement by the end of his term"...legacy, legacy, legacy......AND Nuland stated Russia has not and is not fulfilling a single point of Minsk 2.

Appears to be some sort of chaos theory strategy at work in the Obama WH.....

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 01:28 PM
Video from the middle of the battle (22:35) in #Makeevka.
As you can hear,Ukr forces fires back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoyBN22LlLY …

Another video from Makeevka around the same time.
Here you can hear the heavy caliber outgoing fire.
https://youtu.be/j33pev9jMfY

The Ukrainian army reports an intense Russian mortar and artillery attack on the #Avdeevka front between 9pm and midnight.
400 shells fired.

Terrible reports from occupied eastern #Ukraine
Ukr. lawmaker Evgeniy Deidei says 4 KIA, 2 MIA, 13 WIA in precise Rus arty fire on #Avdeevka

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 02:18 PM
Russian info warfare hard at work creating "fake" news portals.....AND "fake" journalists"......

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
Here's one example of fake 'Forest Echo News' concocting "journos" out of thin air (and other people's photos).

This fake company steals photos of real journos, using them for profile pics of their 109+ faux journos. Their quotes are used by Rus media.

Who's this 'Forest Echo News' journo? Nobody - they just made up a name and stole a picture from a shirt sales ad.

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
Here is how fake 'Forest Echo News' reacted to being questioned: first protecting, then deleting their account.



Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
Hey, @RT_russian @RT_com - that is NOT how you make a retraction. Lame attempt.
Fake info is still up on your site.

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
#RussiaLies - this time, @RT_russian claimed that #Eng fans had it coming (quoting 2 nonexistent journos)
#Euro2016

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 02:25 PM
Video from the middle of the battle (22:35) in #Makeevka.
As you can hear,Ukr forces fires back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoyBN22LlLY …

Another video from Makeevka around the same time.
Here you can hear the heavy caliber outgoing fire.
https://youtu.be/j33pev9jMfY

The Ukrainian army reports an intense Russian mortar and artillery attack on the #Avdeevka front between 9pm and midnight.
400 shells fired.

Terrible reports from occupied eastern #Ukraine
Ukr. lawmaker Evgeniy Deidei says 4 KIA, 2 MIA, 13 WIA in precise Rus arty fire on #Avdeevka


WHY is it that UAF and Ukrainian government has been basically playing down their actual loses....maybe under pressure from the West to make it seem as if Russia "peace offers" are "real"....or maybe Russia just lies and lies and lies........

After the last round of intense fighting in April with high loses the UAS "hedged" also their loses when Nuland and Kerry were talking with Putin....

WHY is it that the US shy's away from openly confronting Russia on just about anything these days.....

Meantime, officials from the ATO press center deny any lethal casualties among UA soldiers in the southeast #Ukraine. Q: WHAT FOR?

Heavy #fighting continues in east #Ukraine, mostly near #Donetsk & #Horlivka:
http://rus.newsru.ua/ukraine/12jun2016/kazhutshonema.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 02:36 PM
WHY is it that UAF and Ukrainian government has been basically playing down their actual loses....maybe under pressure from the West to make it seem as if Russia "peace offers" are "real"....or maybe Russia just lies and lies and lies........

After the last round of intense fighting in April with high loses the UAS "hedged" also their loses when Nuland and Kerry were talking with Putin....

WHY is it that the US shy's away from openly confronting Russia on just about anything these days.....

Meantime, officials from the ATO press center deny any lethal casualties among UA soldiers in the southeast #Ukraine. Q: WHAT FOR?

Meantime, officials from the ATO press center deny any lethal casualties among UA soldiers in the southeast #Ukraine. Q: WHAT FOR?

Heavy #fighting continues in east #Ukraine, mostly near #Donetsk & #Horlivka:
http://rus.newsru.ua/ukraine/12jun2016/kazhutshonema.html …

UAF and Ukraine "caught lying on their loses last night"....WHY????????


4 #Rightsector & 2 #Aidar soldiers KIA over the last night - RS spokesman Skoropadsky just confirmed. 18-20 UA soldiers WIA |

MAYBE the West does not want to truly and finally admit Minsk 2 is a complete and utter failure........just as was the Russian proposed CoH in Syria....and all off their "truces"....

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 02:49 PM
Butivka mine north of #Donetsk collapsed due to constant #artillery #shelling by #DPR #separatists:
http://www.unian.net/war/1373126-ot-obstrelov-boevikov-obvalilas-shahta-butovka-est-pogibshie-i-ranenyie-smi.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 02:59 PM
Russian heavy shelling's and ground attacks are on again tonight...must wait to see the intensity in the morning.....


17:07 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij "I can hear heavy salvos again..."

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 06:43 PM
RIP to 4 Ukrainian soldiers who died this night near #Avdiivka after the attacks of the Russian backed forces.

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
By simply stating that Twitter accounts of fake "journos" were removed, Russian media is implying censorship, instead of admitting the truth

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
Typical response of Russian propagandists: even though the story is debunked, they continue to refer to imaginary people as "journalists."

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2016, 06:57 PM
Russian heavy shelling's and ground attacks are on again tonight...must wait to see the intensity in the morning.....

17:07 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij "I can hear heavy salvos again..."

20:50 #Horlivka - Towards Gagarina mine - shooting, mortars, big caliber
https://twitter.com/MaidanKharkiv/status/742053668447498240 …

21:06 #Horlivka - Shyroka Balka, it seems that AA-gun is firing
https://twitter.com/ahab9889/status/742055406378291200 …

21:07 #Toretsk becomes loud.
https://twitter.com/serg4er/status/742055718057082880 …

21:24 #Toretsk towards #Shumy has become very loud.
https://twitter.com/papakin78/status/742060045995761665 …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 04:57 AM
Good article on Russian Trolls & Krelmin disinformation campaign.
https://share.america.gov/trolls-everything-you-wanted-to-know/#%2EV14PyN6pIVo%2Elinkedin …

Pro-Russian channel: "DNR artillery" firing from #Donetsk tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdjjXxP1ZHs …

And a FAR bigger caliber ...
Any idea what makes such noise?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsaeAm4oIjc …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 08:58 AM
Rus-militant forces shelled Artemove nr occupied Horlivka, 1 civilian woman was killed
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2016/06/13/7111586/ …

ATO HQ: Russia proxies attack Ukraine 40 times on Sunday evening alone
http://www.unian.info/war/1373566-ato-hq-russia-proxies-attack-ukraine-40-times-on-sunday-evening-alone.html …

Avdiivka @owl_ok The night had been restless. RU toyed with artillery firing at UA positions every hour. Reply fire was there too

Attention:
I will add the 4 KIA, 11 WIA from the Right Sector and 2 KIA, 4 WIA from Aydar to the Ukr-army announced 12 WIA from Saturday.

RS fighters claim the UAF serviceman who evacuated from #Butovka their WIA's by APC, disobeyed his superiors' orders
https://inforesist.org/stali-izvestnyi-detali-krovoprolitnogo-obstrela-shahtyi-butovka/ …

"Past last midnight I overlooked a Donetsk panorama during gunnery - flash over entire city, boom in 3-4 seconds"

12 wounded soldiers were brought to Dnipro hospital, 3 in intensive care.
https://twitter.com/UKRINFORM/status/742266006580662272 …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 09:07 AM
Acronyms, sections and departments. Upshot. Reorganisation of FSB's SEC after drug smuggling scandal in Dept K.
http://kommersant.ru/doc/3011906

Sorry in Russian....

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 09:13 AM
It has to be Russian mafia gangs hard at work....or those Nazi Ukrainians....take your pick....

According to a #Sberbank study, losses from #cyber attacks cost #Russia's #economy $9.18 billion per year

http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/575ade089a794720b49cbb4b?from=newsfeed …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 09:27 AM
Russia deploys more tanks to eastern #Ukraine
http://uatoday.tv/politics/kremlin-deploys-more-tanks-to-eastern-ukraine-671329.html …

Russia deploys more tanks to #Ukraine. Russia already deploys 10,000 troops there. 40,000 more at border. https://twitter.com/Kostian_V/status/742090243394940929 …

Russia|n / Russian-bkd militants deployed 51 tanks, 57 artillery systems, 36 Grads in #Donbas - Occupied E.#Ukraine https://twitter.com/2111015/status/741621635598409728 …

Over past four weeks, Ukraine seen record death toll at front line, - MP Iryna Herashchenko
http://en.censor.net.ua/news/393074/over_past_four_weeks_ukraine_seen_record_death_tol l_at_front_line_mp_iryna_herashchenko …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 09:32 AM
https://maidantranslations.com/2016/06/13/dmitry-tymchuk-military-update-06-10-letmypeoplego/

Dmitry Tymchuk: Military update 06.10

Operational data from Information Resistance:


A tense situation persists in the ATO zone in Donbas. In the course of shelling the ATO forces’ positions and civilian objects, terrorists continue actively using 122 mm and 152 mm artillery, among other weaponry.

Militants remain the most active in the vicinity of Avdiivka and its outskirts (including Novhorodske, Butovka, Opytne, and Pisky). During the past 24 hours, terrorists shelled the “industrial zone” in a permanent mode, using 120 mm and 82 mm mortars, heavy machine guns, and grenade launchers. Infantry groups were active on the front edge, as were militants with small arms and grenade launchers (underbarrel and hand-held). South of Yakovlivka, militants are deploying “Akatsiya” 2S3 self-propelled 152 mm cannons (three pieces). Terrorist artillery shellings also come from positions between Mineralne and the Verkhnjekalmiuske Reservoir [Upper Kalmius] reservoir (a firing battery of four 152 mm “Msta-B” howitzers).

In the vicinity of Dokuchajevsk, militants deployed a pair of “Gvozdika” 2S1 self-propelled 122 mm cannons from positions beyond the Dokuchajevsk – Styla road, firing on the flank positions of Ukrainian troops south of Tsentralnyy Karyer [Central Quarry]. This unit is part of the artillery group previously transferred by terrorists and camouflaged in the Obilne – Pischane – Komunarivka triangle.

Militants have stepped up their activity in the vicinity of Popasna. Specifically, the ATO forces’ strongholds east of Novozvanivka were shelled from grenade launchers and heavy machine guns.

The entire stretch between Mayorsk and Zaitseve is being shelled by mortars (including 120 mm), machine guns, and AGS-17’s. Militant fire comes from positions near the Poselok 6-7 estate and from the vicinity of Holmivske.

On the broad stretch south of Donetsk, from Mar’inka to Shyrokyne, militants continue shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops.

The intensity of military truck traffic, particularly tented Kamaz and Ural trucks with covered-up tactical markings, is increasing along the main roads of Donetsk (Artema Street, Leninskyi Ave). At the same time, we observe less armed militants in the streets of Donetsk, who previously roamed the city freely.

Following the “Horlivka garrison,” “mobile anti-sabotage groups” are being created in Makiivka, staffed by members of the militant “DNR Ministry of Internal Affairs.” Russian anti-sabotage specialists arrived in the city to act as “instructors” for the creation of these groups.

The “LNR” militants are circulating information among the locals that the Zolote checkpoint is being kept out of operation by the DRGs of Ukrainian troops in the corresponding region. The DRGs in question are allegedly laying mines and attempt to enter the regions of Stakhanov, Alvchevsk, and Perevalsk to carry out sabotage.

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 09:34 AM
Somehow the US, Russia and the UK ALL want to forget the Budapest Memorandum......

Budapest Memorandum or how #Ukraine lost the World’s third largest #nuclear weapons stockpile
http://empr.media/opinion/investigations/budapest-memorandum-ukraine-lost-nuclear-weapons/ …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 09:35 AM
Pro+Russians reinforse Hol'mivs'kyi & N.Lozove, arms&ammo delivery fr Debaltseve, Russia's GRU unit arrived

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 10:34 AM
In Jan-Jun 2016 alone, #Ukraine lost 214 servicemen killed & 685 injured.
The "#ceasefire" in #Donbass long dead.

AND this does count the loses of the two front line "volunteer Regiments"......

Appears that the West cannot come to grips that Minsk 2 is long dead.....

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 10:41 AM
Military expert: Russia tries to make Ukraine pass law on ‘special status’ of Donbas by increasing artillery fire
http://112.international/conflict-in-eastern-ukraine/military-expert-russia-tries-to-make-ukraine-pass-law-on-special-status-of-donbas-5921.html …

BUT UAF artillery responses have been limited to none in order to protect Minsk 2...at some point UAF is going to seriously return fire and they now have enough counter battery radars in place to be extremely effective when they open fire.

RS fighters in #Avdiivka's Promka, battle video, 21.04.2016
https://youtu.be/ttllAWULh_M

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 10:43 AM
OSCE showing its Russophile bias: Russian OSCE Appointee involved Russia’s Fake Crimea Referendum & War Propaganda
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465595756 …

ATO spox: Hot spots in Donetsk sector: Donetsk airport, Horlivka areas and Luhanske village

ATO spox: Donetsk sec: hostile mortar attacks across front. Shelling of Putilivska mine decreased. Militants used IFVs by Zaitseve, Mayorsk

ATO spox: Militants fired from mortars, IFV by Luhanske. Total number shells fired in Donetsk sec: 159 mortar mines, 6 artillery projectiles

ATO spox: Mariupol sector: Hostile mortar shelling near Maryinka, Krasnohorivka.Several violations by Hnutove, Talakivka, Vodyane, Shyrokyne

ATO spox: Intelligence detected one flight of militant drone in Avdiivka area

ATO spox: Intelligence: Russia strengthens infowar capacities: Russian media is now working near Horlivka, Makiivka, Luhansk
ATO spox: Militants` center of information war in Novocherkask, Rostov region, RU, organized presence of RU journalists in the ATO area

ATO spox reports also "militant casualties". But RS fighters who die for #Ukraine not worthy to mention.
#Butovka
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/742293846541926400 …

Col. Lysenko: Enemy losses: 2 militants – KIA, 4 – WIA

ATO spox: Yesterday, 1 flight of enemy UAV was recorded near Avdiyivka

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 10:54 AM
Russian Su27s again over the Baltic.......

Latitude 67N SIGINT @Sigint67n
RUAF traffic in Baltic Sea consistent with Su27 fighter(s)

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 07:45 PM
Donetsk on Jun 12 - Flashes of evening shelling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8U3h_uO7HCk …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-june-donetsk-on-jun-12--flashes-of-evening-shelling-- …

Fighting in Kuybishevsky district of Donetsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jicc2CckfOI …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-june-fighting-in-kuybishevsky-district-of-donetsk …

AND we are off to the Russian shelling and ground attack games again tonight...AND fully supported by the Minsk 2 compliant Russia military

Marinka @666_mancer [vk]
18:26 skirmishes and seldom booms
18:43 battle intensified, booms became louder

19:05 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
"#Petrovka: booms become activer and stronger, panes vibrate in windows"
"Booms in #Marinka direction"

22:35 [#Yasynuvata] @GirkinGirkin Artillery started to work at #Promka

22:39 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza ...They started to shell more intensively

22:40 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin "From the area of #Mineralne, 3 salvos went, so close, even panes vibrated"

22:41 #Horlivka #Stroitel @ahab9889 there have been few loud salvos from the south

22:45 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin "I can see them shelling from the field, moto-dachas[?]"

22:50 Heavy outgoings from #Makiivka too.

Donetsk 22:50
Trudovska - powerful salvos.
https://twitter.com/rjpthjuljytwr/status/742444484340879360 …

22:53 #Kostyantynivka @partizan201415 we can hear heavy ones again

22:54 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 One can hear heavy weapons from the southeast

23:10 #Makiivka @Shymanovski The horde men awoke

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 07:57 PM
"Combatting propagandists & trolls requires unmasking them and their tactics" - @STRATCOMCOE
http://www.stratcomcoe.org/framing-ukraine-russia-conflict-online-and-social-media …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 08:12 PM
DISASTER: Russia Raises Minimum Price for Vodka
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-raises-minimum-price-for-vodka/572503.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 08:44 PM
Ukrainian fans in occupied Simferopol: "Glory to Ukraine!":cool:
pic.twitter.com/QLXCBS9CJp
https://twitter.com/krymrealii/status/742408182107099137/video/1 …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-june-ukrainian-fans-in-occupied-simferopol-glory-to-ukraine …

Azor
06-13-2016, 11:31 PM
Outlaw:

I think we largely agree on Putin’s ambitions and the lack of confrontation from the West (although I see that NATO’s RRF has been tripled and 4,000 troops are to be in the East on a rotational basis), but I wanted to address Russia’s (dis)proportionate use of force under Putin. I would argue that under Putin’s leadership, the Russian military has become much more sensitive to avoiding collateral damage than in the past, and that Putin has deployed it relatively minimally, whereas former Russian (Yeltsin) and Soviet leaders (Khrushchev and Brezhnev) have had no qualms about using overwhelming force on an indiscriminate basis.

With respect to the collateral damage wrought but Russia’s military in Georgia and Donbas, the amount of damage should be viewed in the context of Soviet and Russian doctrine and prior operations. The Soviet Union was wantonly destructive in Hungary and Afghanistan, albeit much more restrained in Czechoslovakia, and Russia treated Chechnya as it did Afghanistan.

Russia acted disproportionately (and illegally of course) in Georgia, although this was in response to Georgia attempting to level a town without regard for civilians or Russian “peacekeepers”. Although Russian-supported Abkhaz and Ossetian militias committed ethnic cleansing in the wake of Russia’s advance south (principally expulsions), the collateral damage caused by Russian forces (e.g. Gori) was more to do with a lack of precision strike capabilities than with the intention of killing ethnic Georgian civilians. Roughly half of the Georgian civilian fatalities are attributable to Russian forces, and fewer Georgian civilians were killed by Russians than Ossetian civilians killed by Georgians. The military-to-civilian ratio of Russian kills in August 2008 was ~1.5:1, vs. 0.25:1 in First Chechnya and 0.57:1 in Second Chechnya. The operation was “clean” by Russian standards, and far less destructive than the dirty wars there that Yeltsin backed in the 1990s.

In Syria, Russia is assisting Assad and following his doctrine of attacking civilians in opposition-held areas and focusing on the FSA, IF and Nusra at the expense of Daesh. I have heard reports that the SyAAF has destroyed more rebel military targets per capita than the RuAF has…Nevertheless, we have yet to see flotillas of Russian strategic bombers conducting area bombing on rebel-held towns and cities in the manner of say Linebacker I and II, which Russia is fully capable of, although Russia has used cluster bombs and WP indiscriminately, and certainly communicated its displeasure over the Su-24 shootdown to the Turkmen tribes. On balance, Russia’s air campaign was largely symbolic and the real assistance has been the provision of advanced AFVs/artillery, crewing of these weapons by Russian SOF and most importantly the maintenance and repair of Assad’s AFVs. As with most wars, artillery is king in Syria.

The Donbas War is serious business, and Ukraine’s military losses there are analogous to Soviet losses in Afghanistan, on a monthly basis; even 29 KIA/MIA per month would be on par with Coalition losses in Afghanistan and Iraq. With respect to civilian casualties, (pro)Russian-inflicted fatalities are far more on the military than the civilian side, with a ratio of between 1.27 and 2.53 UAF soldier for every civilian killed. Yet Putin was capable of taking Kharkiv and Mariupol and carving out a land bridge to Crimea, but didn’t; nor was he wrong in claiming that he could take Kyiv in a matter of weeks. Of the Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine’s border, only 10% to 22.50% have rotated into Ukraine at any given time, and given the overwhelming advantage Russia has in airpower and artillery (including tactical ballistic missiles), one can say that the Kremlin has emphasized deniability over defeating Kyiv and has fought in Donbas with one arm behind its back. Now the “separatists” seem a much more unruly lot than the “polite” men of Crimea, and from what I gather this is because the Crimean Anschluss was directed from the Kremlin while Donbas was taken up by “clients” with Putin’s “acceptance”. Although this gives Moscow some distance from Donetsk/Luhansk, it makes central control more difficult to achieve and it is unlikely that the “separatists” will disarm and return to alcoholism and unemployment simply on the Kremlin’s say-so. If the Kremlin simply abandons these men, it might well face blowback from an armed and angry constituency along the lines of France’s OAS problem or the UK’s Loyalist problem in Northern Ireland.

Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling is disturbing and seems more pronounced than at any time during the Cold War. In addition to the provocative rhetoric, leaks and exercises, Russia has also increased its deployed warheads which is against the spirit of New START, albeit not a violation until February 2018. Russia has likely violated the INF Treaty (albeit the R-500 does not appear to be deployed in a nuclear variant) as well as the CFE Treaty and various OSCE agreements. With respect to the INF Treaty, I firmly believe that the US wants out as well in order to counter China’s growing arsenal of I/MRBMs, but it wants Russia to withdraw first.

From a perspective of behavior patterns, Putin telegraphed his red lines to T’bilisi and Kyiv, but not his actions, which he did with surprise and speed. Therefore, I find it unlikely that Putin has any real plans to invade any NATO member after having engaged in years of provocative rhetoric and actions that have all but signaled aggressive intent. It is more likely, in my opinion, that Putin is attempting to continue the Cold War for domestic purposes as well as attempting to deter possible Western intervention in Ukraine, Belarus, Central Asia or the Caucuses. I think there is a strong case to be made that Russia will minimize its footprint in Donbas and turn its attention toward Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well as the NKO hotspot in the Caucuses. Much will depend upon further NATO or EU enlargement, may put Moldova, Sweden, Serbia and Finland in the crosshairs.

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 05:41 AM
Militants fired upon Butivka mine w/ large-caliber artillery from residential areas of occupied Donetsk, east of Spartak - ATO press center

Combined Rus-militant forces fired 40 times upon Ukr troops over last day. Equally intense in Donetsk & Mariupol sectors - ATO press center

Mayorsk 6:40AM
"We are staying at the checkpoint tow. Artemivsk. Shooting fr assault rifles."
"Who?"
"DNR soldiers"
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/742573403362734081 …

Ukrainian Ait Force: Low-level flights of Mi-8, Mi-24, Su-25, MiG-29, Su-27, An-26, Il-76
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDjnYyl7S8Q&feature=youtu.be …

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 12:44 PM
Outlaw:

I think we largely agree on Putin’s ambitions and the lack of confrontation from the West (although I see that NATO’s RRF has been tripled and 4,000 troops are to be in the East on a rotational basis), but I wanted to address Russia’s (dis)proportionate use of force under Putin. I would argue that under Putin’s leadership, the Russian military has become much more sensitive to avoiding collateral damage than in the past, and that Putin has deployed it relatively minimally, whereas former Russian (Yeltsin) and Soviet leaders (Khrushchev and Brezhnev) have had no qualms about using overwhelming force on an indiscriminate basis.

With respect to the collateral damage wrought but Russia’s military in Georgia and Donbas, the amount of damage should be viewed in the context of Soviet and Russian doctrine and prior operations. The Soviet Union was wantonly destructive in Hungary and Afghanistan, albeit much more restrained in Czechoslovakia, and Russia treated Chechnya as it did Afghanistan.

Russia acted disproportionately (and illegally of course) in Georgia, although this was in response to Georgia attempting to level a town without regard for civilians or Russian “peacekeepers”. Although Russian-supported Abkhaz and Ossetian militias committed ethnic cleansing in the wake of Russia’s advance south (principally expulsions), the collateral damage caused by Russian forces (e.g. Gori) was more to do with a lack of precision strike capabilities than with the intention of killing ethnic Georgian civilians. Roughly half of the Georgian civilian fatalities are attributable to Russian forces, and fewer Georgian civilians were killed by Russians than Ossetian civilians killed by Georgians. The military-to-civilian ratio of Russian kills in August 2008 was ~1.5:1, vs. 0.25:1 in First Chechnya and 0.57:1 in Second Chechnya. The operation was “clean” by Russian standards, and far less destructive than the dirty wars there that Yeltsin backed in the 1990s.

In Syria, Russia is assisting Assad and following his doctrine of attacking civilians in opposition-held areas and focusing on the FSA, IF and Nusra at the expense of Daesh. I have heard reports that the SyAAF has destroyed more rebel military targets per capita than the RuAF has…Nevertheless, we have yet to see flotillas of Russian strategic bombers conducting area bombing on rebel-held towns and cities in the manner of say Linebacker I and II, which Russia is fully capable of, although Russia has used cluster bombs and WP indiscriminately, and certainly communicated its displeasure over the Su-24 shootdown to the Turkmen tribes. On balance, Russia’s air campaign was largely symbolic and the real assistance has been the provision of advanced AFVs/artillery, crewing of these weapons by Russian SOF and most importantly the maintenance and repair of Assad’s AFVs. As with most wars, artillery is king in Syria.

The Donbas War is serious business, and Ukraine’s military losses there are analogous to Soviet losses in Afghanistan, on a monthly basis; even 29 KIA/MIA per month would be on par with Coalition losses in Afghanistan and Iraq. With respect to civilian casualties, (pro)Russian-inflicted fatalities are far more on the military than the civilian side, with a ratio of between 1.27 and 2.53 UAF soldier for every civilian killed. Yet Putin was capable of taking Kharkiv and Mariupol and carving out a land bridge to Crimea, but didn’t; nor was he wrong in claiming that he could take Kyiv in a matter of weeks. Of the Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine’s border, only 10% to 22.50% have rotated into Ukraine at any given time, and given the overwhelming advantage Russia has in airpower and artillery (including tactical ballistic missiles), one can say that the Kremlin has emphasized deniability over defeating Kyiv and has fought in Donbas with one arm behind its back. Now the “separatists” seem a much more unruly lot than the “polite” men of Crimea, and from what I gather this is because the Crimean Anschluss was directed from the Kremlin while Donbas was taken up by “clients” with Putin’s “acceptance”. Although this gives Moscow some distance from Donetsk/Luhansk, it makes central control more difficult to achieve and it is unlikely that the “separatists” will disarm and return to alcoholism and unemployment simply on the Kremlin’s say-so. If the Kremlin simply abandons these men, it might well face blowback from an armed and angry constituency along the lines of France’s OAS problem or the UK’s Loyalist problem in Northern Ireland.

Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling is disturbing and seems more pronounced than at any time during the Cold War. In addition to the provocative rhetoric, leaks and exercises, Russia has also increased its deployed warheads which is against the spirit of New START, albeit not a violation until February 2018. Russia has likely violated the INF Treaty (albeit the R-500 does not appear to be deployed in a nuclear variant) as well as the CFE Treaty and various OSCE agreements. With respect to the INF Treaty, I firmly believe that the US wants out as well in order to counter China’s growing arsenal of I/MRBMs, but it wants Russia to withdraw first.

From a perspective of behavior patterns, Putin telegraphed his red lines to T’bilisi and Kyiv, but not his actions, which he did with surprise and speed. Therefore, I find it unlikely that Putin has any real plans to invade any NATO member after having engaged in years of provocative rhetoric and actions that have all but signaled aggressive intent. It is more likely, in my opinion, that Putin is attempting to continue the Cold War for domestic purposes as well as attempting to deter possible Western intervention in Ukraine, Belarus, Central Asia or the Caucuses. I think there is a strong case to be made that Russia will minimize its footprint in Donbas and turn its attention toward Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well as the NKO hotspot in the Caucuses. Much will depend upon further NATO or EU enlargement, may put Moldova, Sweden, Serbia and Finland in the crosshairs.

Azor....I would argue that in eastern Ukraine the wanton destruction of towns and villages as well as critical civilian and industrial infrastructure was not by accident but deliberate along the lines of Grozny in the 2nd Chechen war.

Prior to invading eastern Ukraine Russian military spent days shelling Ukrainian towns and villages into dust as well as the larger one ie Debaltseve and continues to do that nightly all along the front line and lately as deep as 10kms past the front line.

Even if they pulled totally out of Donbas Ukraine would be on one heck of a rebuilding project for the next 20 years.

Syria is an all together different Russia...there Russia is punishing the civilian population for their support of FSA against Assad by literally bombing FSA and non FSA/JaF/JaN towns and villages literally into dust and districts in say Damascus resemble Grozny.

These attacks are largely terror in nature as they have not really hit FSA positions and are focused on causing as much civilian damage as possible as punishment hoping to turn the civil society against FSA and for Assad.

The extremely widespread use of cluster, WP and thermobaric weapons are a terrorizing agent and literally meant to burn down say Aleppo trying again to force the civilian population away from FSA.

The damage to critical civilian infrastructure is again deliberate and total and again while they are not flying carpet bombing attacks straight air strikes are basically enough to create the damage we are seeing daily.

Kill one doctor in a critical area hospital and you kill up to 1-2K civilians over time.....the use of starvation is being reinforced as well by Russia again as a terrorizing weapon hoping to break the Sunni population to support FSA. Destroy the only hospital and you can create upwards of 10K follow on civilian deaths....especially when under constant bombing.

Taken as a whole Russian operations in Syria as well as eastern Ukraine have the same hallmarks as the second Chechen war especially when they focused on Grozny....

Right now though Putin is playing the "last man standing game" as his economy is actually far worse off than he wants to admit and the sanctions are not coming off and the UAF is holding their own as is FSA......AND he is desperately trying to maneuver Obama and Kerry into some kind of deal especially in Donbas before Presidents change out with the chance of even harder responses from the US that has not be forthcoming from Obama...we see Obama trying to do the same when Rice uttered the recent comments she could envision something being done on eastern Ukraine by end of 2017....but Rice forgot to tell the Ukrainians who have a voice in this game as well..

This is an interesting article concerning Syria and Putin.......
Playing Tic-Tac-Toe with Putin
http://atfp.co/25Swld3

Would argue on the nuclear front that actually the US could have already pulled out of INF as they have clear evidence of Russian violations as well as with the New Start agreement because the Russians have an old saying..."what we deploy we do not redeploy" and since "you said nothing we assumed it was OK...."......but Obama does not want to rock the so called "dialogue he thinks he has with Putin" because of Syria and Iran.

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 01:39 PM
Predictably, just before the #NATO Summit, #Putin orders snap drills to check mobilization readiness.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russian-military-drills-check-mobilization-readiness/2016/06/14/4cfee0aa-3219-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 01:45 PM
They carry out daily attack after attack, destroy critical infrastructure, torture and kill POWs, shoot down an OSCE UAV with SAM10s, shoot at OSCE SMM patrols, steal entire factories and coal from eastern Ukraine and fail to implement a single point in Minsk 2.............

BUT then want this Minsk 2 point implemented........
Kremlin-backed militants demand amnesty, put hostage without arms or eyesight on trial
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/14/kremlin-backed-militants-demand-amnesty-put-hostage-without-arms-or-eyesight-on-trial/ …

Seriously doubt that will ever happen until Russia fulfills six of the critical points of Minsk 2 starting with a full and complete exchange of POWs... turning over control of the Ukrainian border to Ukraine and withdrawing her troops and mercenaries as required by Minsk 2...then just maybe amnesty will be granted........

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 01:49 PM
Reference the Russian shoot down of MH17...appears a Reuters reporter is in need of some serious answers.........

.@Reuters correspondent Zverev declined to comment on hackers' disclosures he withheld info on Russian BUK presence/use during MH17 shooting

He should have realized the moment hackers revealed his name he was in trouble......

Emails indicated he knew the Russian BUK unit inovled and when they were withdrawn back into Russia from eastern Ukraine...now he is silent as a cricket....

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 05:27 PM
Data from hacked Rus 1st channel show new info on Russian Buk #MH17
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-june-hacked-intranet-of-russian-1st-channel-show-new-info …
via @newsburko

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 05:45 PM
Russian artillery and ground attack war on again tonight as always.....

20:48 #Toretsk @blessmaster battle goes on, becoming louder

20:34 #Toretsk @gg_artem listening to very dense battle in the E/SE. Shots, landings by everything I can recognize - heavy MG, AGL, SA, BMP

20:34 #Novhorodske @subwayriwer Hits started to reach the village. It is intensifying

20:33 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 #Promka&forest further N,not too intense MG, smtms like a tank at point-blank range,round-explosion almost at once

20:48 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 Though the sound is too faint as for tank, probably 80mm BMP cannon or like that

20:38 #Marinka @666_mancer [vk] it begins, booms and skirmishes, so far not intense

20:28 #Horlivka @NovaGorlivka Battle in #Shyroka_Balka - explosions, tracers, smoke

20:18 #Toretsk @blessmaster Something new. Firing is merging in plangent hum, like they drag a heavy box

20:15 #Horlivka #Stroitel @ahab9889 Machine gun fire is heard coming fr/#Shyroka_Balka direction

OSCEmonitors recorded hits at Avdiivka coke-coal plant
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-june-osce-monitors-recorded-hits-at-avdiivka-cokecoal …
pic.twitter.com/z2pc5vQQy8

20:06 #Toretsk @serg4er Continue listening to the war, so far not too close

20:04 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza evening is becoming cheerful [=battle begins?]

20:00 #Telmanove @GirkinGirkin [vk?] one can hear war

19:44 #Horlivka @UA_Horlivka_ for about 30 min, one can hear booms coming fr/the area of #Vodobud - NE fr/us, before like plane's droning

19:37 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Now one can hear rounds/landings too, smwh in the N/NW

19:36 #Toretsk @blessmaster well, bit by bit it's getting noisy. So far not loud, but frequently kind of brattle reach here - far booms

19:28 #Novhorodske @untrikoy They started to pound somehow firmly...

18:15 #Novhorodske @untrikoy "Bitches pound"

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 05:54 PM
Russia's intelligence agencies, "steal assets from one another"
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/russian-government-hackers-penetrated-dnc-stole-opposition-research-on-trump …

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 07:09 PM
Russian artillery and ground attack war on again tonight as always.....

20:48 #Toretsk @blessmaster battle goes on, becoming louder

20:34 #Toretsk @gg_artem listening to very dense battle in the E/SE. Shots, landings by everything I can recognize - heavy MG, AGL, SA, BMP

20:34 #Novhorodske @subwayriwer Hits started to reach the village. It is intensifying

20:33 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 #Promka&forest further N,not too intense MG, smtms like a tank at point-blank range,round-explosion almost at once

20:48 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 Though the sound is too faint as for tank, probably 80mm BMP cannon or like that

20:38 #Marinka @666_mancer [vk] it begins, booms and skirmishes, so far not intense

20:28 #Horlivka @NovaGorlivka Battle in #Shyroka_Balka - explosions, tracers, smoke

20:18 #Toretsk @blessmaster Something new. Firing is merging in plangent hum, like they drag a heavy box

20:15 #Horlivka #Stroitel @ahab9889 Machine gun fire is heard coming fr/#Shyroka_Balka direction

OSCEmonitors recorded hits at Avdiivka coke-coal plant
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-june-osce-monitors-recorded-hits-at-avdiivka-cokecoal …
pic.twitter.com/z2pc5vQQy8

20:06 #Toretsk @serg4er Continue listening to the war, so far not too close

20:04 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza evening is becoming cheerful [=battle begins?]

20:00 #Telmanove @GirkinGirkin [vk?] one can hear war

19:44 #Horlivka @UA_Horlivka_ for about 30 min, one can hear booms coming fr/the area of #Vodobud - NE fr/us, before like plane's droning

19:37 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Now one can hear rounds/landings too, smwh in the N/NW

19:36 #Toretsk @blessmaster well, bit by bit it's getting noisy. So far not loud, but frequently kind of brattle reach here - far booms

19:28 #Novhorodske @untrikoy They started to pound somehow firmly...

18:15 #Novhorodske @untrikoy "Bitches pound"

Fighting increases after top Russian officials meet with the so-called DPR - Colonel Aleksandr
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-jun

21:49 #Stakhanov @yellowbtr Since around 21:00, sounds of active battle with use of artillery & heavy machine gun come from #Lomuvatka dir'n

22:04 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza artillery is working densely smwh, sound of 4 tubes battery, landings in the direction of #Pisky-#Krasnohorivka..

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 07:35 PM
2 KIAs and 1 WIA Ukr soldier reported from #Pavlopil (#Mariupol area)
https://inforesist.org/volonter-pod-mariupolem-pogibli-dva-boytsa/ …

EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Create anger in RU towards EU by raising expectations: pro-Kremlin tactics.
http://eepurl.com/b49Qc1

EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Worrying signs of increased pro-Kremlin disinformation on #Ukraine. Latest #DisinfoReview:
http://eepurl.com/b5JYK9

OUTLAW 09
06-14-2016, 07:52 PM
Poroshenko instructed to prepare a plan for a general mobilization in the event of a full-scale invasion of Russia
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/poroshenko-poruchil-podgotovit-plan-vseobshchey-1465908019.html …

Azor
06-14-2016, 08:43 PM
Certainly, (pro)Russian forces have deliberately attacked civilians and civilian property in Donbas and then blamed the collateral damage on Ukrainian forces. The problem in Donbas, particularly if the more indirect client model of Kremlin control is accurate (as opposed to direct control in Syria and Crimea), is that neither side has very good precision strike capabilities, and both are using weapons and doctrines that are not designed to account for civilians and their property in a battlespace. (Pro)Russian units have deliberately used civilians as human shields when it comes to staging areas for their armor and artillery and have stationed snipers in inhabited apartment buildings, with the objectives of either protecting their forces from Ukrainian fire or drawing that fire toward civilians in order to whip up support for their mafia statelets. Note that the (pro)Russian precision strike capabilities are superior to the Ukrainians because of their abilities to use UAVs for reconnaissance and to disrupt Ukrainian ISR with advanced EM warfare. Kyiv is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to avoiding collateral damage, and Donetsk, Luhansk and Moscow know this.

Moscow has already attempted to coerce Kyiv into rebuilding Donbas, even as Moscow’s own “humanitarian aid” consists of weapons for the rebels, SOF and intelligence infiltrators and the ransacking of Donbas’ industrial equipment. It may very well be in Kyiv’s interest to ignore the region entirely and focus on economically developing the rest of Ukraine, although I doubt the rebels or Moscow would take this quietly.

Washington has received a great deal of criticism for not giving more support to Ukraine, however, I would counter that the American response has been restrained for 2 reasons: (1) Washington wants to distinguish an attack on NATO from an attack on a country with which the US has no security commitment; and (2) Washington is signaling that not every conflict is its priority. There was a period during which the US military was perceived as the “world’s policeman” and that almost every country was of serious interest, regardless of the preferences of the other great powers. I don’t agree with the term, “unipolar moment”, as this implies that there were no other great powers and that the US had a free hand everywhere, when in fact, the US was simply not challenged in the non-aligned Third World in the same manner that it had been during the Cold War. That period has passed given the rise of China and reconstruction of Russia, and because Americans are no longer willing to pay, fight and die for non-core interests after the Iraq debacle. To get back on topic, I do believe that if the (pro)Russians advanced on Kharkiv or Mariupol, NATO arms (especially ATGMs, EW devices and counter-battery radars) and trainers would flow into Ukraine, forcing Russia to either fully commit itself or withdraw. While Ukrainian servicemen are being killed and injured daily, the Ukrainian nation is much culturally stronger and socially cohesive than at any time since independence.

All I can say about Syria is that I hope Russia has an adequate protection program for its pilots post-deployment, as many will be hunted down in Russia by Islamists. They know what they’re doing, and so they shouldn’t be surprised if vengeance finds them in cozy retirement years from now.

The Russian economy is certainly under pressure and Russians are increasingly feeling the pinch of sanctions and low energy prices, however, Russia’s economy is still robust, the central bank has substantial reserves, and economic growth is expected to return (albeit very low) by 2017. Note that Iran was under much more severe sanctions for much longer, and it continues to be debated whether or not the sanctions/low oil prices brought them to the table or whether Washington gave in to strike the JCPOA. International sanctions did not oust Hussein from Iraq or the Kim dynasty from North Korea, although they were so successful against Japan in the late 1930s that Tokyo regarded them as an act of war by the US.

I believe that Putin jumped the gun on Crimea, as there was no evidence that the Black Sea Fleet was about to be evicted or that Crimeans’ ties to Russia would be severed. The rationale for invasion and annexation, based upon anti-Russian language policy never enacted and oppression from Ukrainian security forces that numbered 1/3 of Russian forces in Crimea, was spurious. The annexation of Crimea, together with the launching of a dirty war in Donbas, has only brought Ukraine firmly into the Western camp which is contrary to Putin’s goals. Nevertheless, Ukraine has not yet proven to be his Waterloo and the Russian people have tended to support his folly.

I think that Washington is trying a compartmentalized approach to dealing with Moscow: cooperating in some areas, confronting Moscow in others. Certainly Washington has used rhetoric that implies Kyiv is wholly responsible for upholding the Minsk II agreements, although this may be entirely for Russian consumption. On the ground, NATO is training Ukrainian forces and the Western European capitals seem disinclined to ignore Crimea’s annexation just to get Russia to adhere to Minsk II. It is hard to say what is going on behind the scenes. Obama has been prepared to lose face diplomatically and to tighten screws very slowly, which is a novel approach for a POTUS, and which has garnered ire from Americans who want decisive action. The takeaway is that Ukraine has been irrevocably divorced from Russia and that the “left-bank vs. right-bank” cycle has been broken by Ukrainian patriotism that had been dormant since the late 1950s.

I read that FP article before, although now I’m faced with a paywall. Aron has oscillated between “Putin has mastery over Obama” and “Putin’s regime is on the verge of collapse”, neither of which I think is true. Both Iran and Russia have lost their key allies for all intents and purposes and have been forced to burn through resources to preserve their geopolitical position, even as they suffer from economic and financial woes. As with Ukraine, the “cessation of hostilities” in Syria was never going to be full and fair, but it has bought the FSA necessary time and re-focused the war on Daesh and Nusra. Again like in Ukraine, a major pro-Assad violation would likely be met with a flood of GCC weapons by way of Turkey and Jordan.

According to the US government, it took years to determine if Russia’s unnamed cruise missile (forgive my earlier R-500 reference which has been refuted) was in fact capable of violating the range limits set by INF and if that cruise missile was in fact designed to be ground-launched. Given the lack of information, I would speculate that Russia has a GLCM that it is developing in order to keep pace with Chinese developments, but which is not yet complete or in production.

I don’t think Obama has any misconceptions about Putin; in fact, he has taken a firmer line than Bush, Jr. The JCPOA makes Iran more dependent upon contact with the wider world and unclenches the anti-American “resistance state” fist of Teheran. Of course, Iranian activities must be closely monitored, but outside of official scrutiny, we can be assured that the Israelis and Arabs are watching closely as well. I don’t see any evidence that Kyiv or the moderate/secular rebels of Syria have been thrown under the bus to further other American interests; I simply think that American interest is limited.

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 06:01 AM
Azor...your points are taken but and there is always a but.....the US as well as the UK really do want to totally "forget" the 1994 Budapest Memorandum...go back and thoroughly reread it...it in fact could be read as to what the responsibilities of both parties are in the event that the Ukraine was invaded...there is even a specific paragraph on what constitutes getting them involved.

That is exactly why the Obama WH from the very beginning used the word "incursion" to get the illusion that the Russians were "not invading" thus the US was not forced to invoke Budapest even though it was not a formal treaty because Clinton knew he could not get it through Congress as a Treaty. But is the underlying international assumption at the time of the signing was.."you give up the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in exchange for our protection in the coming years IF".......

Well the IF came and the US/UK remained totally silent and Russia as always "reinterpreted" the agreement.

Remember Stalin in a 1933 speech to key Party members stated..."we will sign anything and follow it as longs as it benefits us and then ignore them when it does not"....

BUT what is interesting is that Nuland from DoS this last week for the first time used the word "invasion".

Reference the Putin fear of the "last man standing economic syndrome"....a friend of mine is a high German Customs Officer handling the Eastern European truck traffic which includes Russia......Russian long haul truck traffic is down 89% over year and month since 2015 and most of the returning long haul carrying capacity going in the direction of Russia is minimal.

When I commute on the highway that the Russian long haulers use I only see 1-2 per trip where it use to be 10-20.

Right now there are estimates that both eastern Ukraine and Syria are costing Russian 5-7M USDs per day and that for literally months now coupled with the Russian PM's recent Crimea statement to pensioners of "suck it up we are out of money" and indications that Russia is running late in paying their Ukrainian mercenary monthly salaries does not bode well economically speaking...

Reference the cruise missile...the US is highly concerned with the single test launch which was ground based where the missile far far exceeded treaty limits...now comes the problem...the analysts cannot say for certain if the onboard fuel was simply allowed to burn out to see exactly how far it would really travel or was it a deliberate test run for max target range...but when Russians develop a tactical/strategic missile system they tend to develop it for both ground and air launched abilities....

BTW....there are actually some "thinkers" inside Ukraine that will argue that it is far more beneficial for Ukraine to simply give the Donbas to Russia and move on...BUT Russia cannot even support Donbas and really only wants it for leverage and the Ukrainians are afraid this move would then be used to seal forever the return of Crimea--economically speaking decoupling from Donbas would actually help Ukraine long term.

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 06:40 AM
Ukraine insists that OSCE shall indicate an attacking party in the East Ukraine.
http://www.unian.net/war/1373642-ukraina-nastaivaet-chtobyi-obse-nazyivala-naru####eley-peremiriya-na-donbasse.html …

Ukraine wants this as support for their coming damages claims against Russia which will run in the billions of USDs and to deflect the Russian demands for the repayment for a 3B Euro loan/bribe in 2013 just before Maidan.

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 06:41 AM
Russian Spetsnaz ground attacks are picking up in eastern Ukraine....

Two Ukrainian servicemen were KIA in combat w/ hostile subversive group nr Pavlopil, Mariupol sector - volunteers http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2016/06/15/7111807/ …

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 06:48 AM
While Russia loves info warfare it hates being on the receiving end lately.....

Russian Diplomat Is Accused of Threatening Rights Activist on Twitter
http://nyti.ms/1XVgNEo

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 07:23 AM
Ukraine records 58 militant barrages, one tank attack in last day
http://www.unian.info/war/1376073-ukraine-records-58-militant-barrages-one-tank-attack-in-last-day.html …

With 50 or more attacks per day it signals full combat ...Minsk 2 is long dead on the front line...

.@hyeva_maryinka inside #Karasnohorivka. #7, #Sonyashnyi - fire outbreak, woman wounded
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/742969776683782144 …

Krasnohorivka: ~5am a projectile hit residential high-rise building on #Soniashna St, 5 apartments damaged, 55yo woman injured

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 07:40 AM
Huge arsenal of weapons and ammunition from ATO zone seized by @ServiceSsu in Dnipro city
https://youtu.be/yh_FOKieqzs

Butovka airshaft premises ("#Butovska mine" UA position)
pic.twitter.com/HKMaeZn0MS
http://novosti.dn.ua/details/275710/

Last night's Russian shelling damage......
Krasnohorivka, #Sonyachnyi micro-ds:
http://novosti.dn.ua/details/275718/

More damage from Russian shelling's.....
Dokuchaevsk @whicard5 last night's aftermath: the end houses are damaged at #Stara_Kolonia on #Krupskoy&#Shevchenka, no injuries

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 07:52 AM
Amazing that Russia is hacking US political party while being outraged at imagined US meddling into Russian politics https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/742981487667073025 …

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 07:59 AM
Azor......

Canada considers European troop commitment as CSIS warns Russia is 'mobilizing for war'
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-baltics-troops-russia-1.3635139 …

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 12:22 PM
The first 2 weeks of June 2016 saw 113 Ukrainian troops killed & wounded by #Putin's henchmen in #Donbas.
2 KIA, 7 WIA yday.

"There is no ceasefire" in eastern Ukraine says Ukraine's Defence Minister.

And markings on more RPG-18 and RPG-26s captured in #Ukraine
https://ssu.gov.ua/ua/news/1/category/2/view/1199 …

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 02:27 PM
Norway calls military snap drill, hours after #Russia started readiness check @BarentsNews
http://thebarentsobserver.com/security/2016/06/norway-calls-snap-drill-north-hours-after-russia …

ATO spox: 3 militants WIA yesterday. Intelligence uncovered their names:Igor Dudarev, Igor Malytsky,Nikolai Stepanov
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/15-june-ato-spox-three-militants-wia-yesterday-intelligence …

.@rianru "#Surkov to visit #Minsk for discussing questions of settlement in #Donbas"

BUT WAIT...settlement on Russian terms..full Donbas rights to tell Ukraine what they can and or cannot do, no NATO membership and no EU membership

Interesting development as full and complete POW exchanges where to have happened under Minsk 2 months...many many months ago but the Russian mercenaries refused to go along with them....

Presidential Aides Meet In Minsk To Discuss Donbass; Talks Under Way On Returning Prisoners
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-849/#14211

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 02:52 PM
Минобороны России
✔ @mod_russia Rus MoD refutes statement by Jens Stoltenberg about alleged "breaching military transparency in Europe" by RF
http://s.mil.ru/1UzeEaH

BUT WAIT at least 15 major "snap drills and exercises" that required OSCE notifications before they happen over the last two years ...never happened...BUT maybe that is what Russia calls "transparency".....

As #Russian military actions become less predictable, #US must take a stand to deter further aggression in #BlackSea: Amb. William Courtney

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 02:53 PM
What the heck......????

In act of defiance, Russian newspapers warn readers state TV is filled w/ lies
https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/russian-newspapers-are-warning-people-about-disinformation?utm_term=.rwPEEq9ov6 …

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 03:01 PM
Militants Suffer Heavy Casualties: 38 separatists killed in last few days
http://uatoday.tv/news/separatists-take-heavy-losses-38-militants-killed-in-last-few-days-673313.html …

According to the official data, 623 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed this year on the frontline.

OUTLAW 09
06-15-2016, 03:08 PM
NATO now calls for RUS to withdraw troops from UKR. Roots of current UKR crisis not in 2014, but rather back in 2008 https://twitter.com/Doesnotplaywel/status/743042886569185280 …

YES! I have been saying this all along myself. NATO's indifference to RUS invasion of GEO laid groundwork for Crimea/Donbas.

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:08 AM
Russians shelled all night and into this morning along with ground attacks.....

Kadievka - Today from 0:10 to 1:10 in #Pervomaisk area battle was heard, AA-guns and some big caliber gun worked. https://twitter.com/DNSRRSTRTS/status/743299361136775168 …

Maryinka - Ka-booms could be heard all night till 5AM, not intensive. Now quiet. 6:25AM

ATO: 41 russian attacks in Donbas y/day, RU forces from #Dokuchajevsk shelled #Novotroitske and #Berezove with 120-mm mortars.

NOTICE...the first clear identification of Russian troops actually involved in the shelling's by their own artillery units....there has been some cross border shelling's as well in the last week.

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 07:36 AM
Azor...more evidence of the "last man standing problem" Putin now economically has......economically speaking time is truly running out on the Russian economy and Putin urgently needs to rethink...guns or butter as he cannot now do both as he first assumed he could when oil was priced far higher......that is why the "idea" of a short sharp war is appealing to some in Moscow because of their own propaganda they seem to think they could "win it"......and that makes Putin dangerous right now......

Is Russia state running short on money? Reports of construction of key Crimea bridge being frozen.
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/09/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/ …

Russia Is Saving Jobs, but Not the Economy | Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-saving-jobs-not-economy …

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 07:41 AM
Russia's Invasion of #Ukraine: #Bellingcat publishes new evidence
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-bellingcat-publishes-additional-evidence-673714.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 10:43 AM
NATO WARNS: Russia is building a military 'zone of influence'
http://read.bi/21o4VZi

DNR leader Alexander Zakharchenko is in Moscow and saying surprisingly conciliatory things about Savchenko
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/16-june-alexander-zakharchenko-is-in-moscow-and-saying-surprisingly … via @RolandOliphant
AFTER threatening to kill her if she showed up in the DNR....

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 10:55 AM
659 Minsk 2 ceasefire violations reported by ATO HQ in first half of June.
631 ceasefire violations in May(31 days)

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 03:50 PM
Russia wants to make its most sophisticated missiles invisible — http://read.bi/1XYnrd9

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:04 PM
AND the "party started" this evening........

Party is picking up the pace.......

21:21 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Battle on the outskirts,strong booms in the area of #Skhidna 20min back, not sounded like landings

21:15 #Donetsk @laokoon821 The area of #Staromykhaylivka-#Krasnohorivka rumbles pretty tangibly. Locals say, "tank&smth smaller"

21:00 #Donetsk #Trudovski @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] restlessly since 18:30, #Sovkhoz direction is very noisy (#Oleksandrivka),

20:38 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @phoenix_dnr "I declare the evening concert open. #Horlivka can hear artillery"

20:23 #Staromykhaylivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Party started [=battle]

20:15 downtown #Horlivka @gipsogolovij 2 simultaneous salvos [have been heard] from different locations

20:11 #Donetsk @666_mancer [fb] Ongoing firing near #Tekstilschik, in the west. Assault rifles and a heavy cannon

20:10 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]
"#Tekstilschik is listening to misc sounds fr/#Trudovski dir'n"
"#Petrovka circle: loud battle heard"

20:04 #Donetsk #Kirovskyi @KarachenU and all together: ratatat, boom, ratatat, boom

19:57 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] almost no change [intense mostly shooting combat]
"Smth on fire behind #boarding school"

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:05 PM
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-un--oputrage-ki-moon-comments-russia/27803380.html


Ukraine's ambassador to the United Nations has said he was "completely outraged" by the UN chief’s speech at the St. Petersberg International Economic Forum.

In his June 16 speech, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Russia "has a critical role to play" in addressing global issues "from ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, to safeguarding human rights and controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."

Ukrainian Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko said he doesn't understand how the UN chief "can say such things which sort of praise the role of Russia in settling the conflict in Ukraine when the Russian Federation is the main player in aggressing Ukraine and in keeping this conflict boiling."

Yelchenko also said Russia is accused of rights abuses in Crimea and that Moscow is "building up the nuclear potential" on the Black Sea peninsula


Russia blocks moves to help Ukraine Border Monitoring Mission do its job. @OSCE_SMM access still blocked too. What's to hide?

APPEARS that the UN and Ban Ki-moon simply do not want to call out Russian aggression these days...maybe he is following the Obama example....

Violence in #Ukraine surges as #Russia-backed separatists mask their weaponary:
http://1.usa.gov/1Q8E42R

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:12 PM
Red October Swedish sub incident revisited
https://corporalfrisk.com/2016/06/12/red-october-revisited-yes-there-was-a-foreign-submarine/ …
yes there was a foreign sub

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:16 PM
Russian military analyst: The forces in Donbas are Russian Army
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/16/russia-and-the-west-an-escalating-confrontation/ …

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:26 PM
InformNapalm: "1st channel leak" -Russian forces attack on Nikishino
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEnEWUIB0yE … pic.twitter.com/zjOjvM4dbg
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/16-june-1st-channel-leak-by-informnapalm--russian-forces …

Russian troops are getting more and more involved in the actual fighting in the month or so....

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:28 PM
What the heck........??

Russia bans @Durex condoms, because they were not "tested in Russia".

At least the "vodka" is Russian tested......

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 06:48 PM
SBU: ATO's deputy chief of staff is a russian spy.
http://novosti.dn.ua/details/275811/

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 10:17 AM
Yesterday 3 WIA Ukrainian servicemen near Maryinka.
https://m.facebook.com/backandalive/posts/647953845362056?substory_index=0 …

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 11:18 AM
Avdiivka's Promka - battle video
https://youtu.be/uH9tvEmM8p0

West is reluctant to supply #Ukraine with weapons
http://uawire.org/news/turchynov

Reference Russian disinformation.....
Kremlin Propaganda In Czech Republic Plays Long Game To Sow Distrust In EU
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/czech-kremlin-propaganda-plays-long-game-sow-eu-distrust/27802234.html …

Snizhne, 2014: 11th Armoured Engineer Brigade of Russian Armed Forces
2 videos in link
https://informnapalm.org/23969-cnezhnoe-11-ibr/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter …

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 11:54 AM
We are still in full combat operations along the eastern front line.....the Minsk 2 ceasefire simply does not exist anymore........

46 attacks on Ukrainian positions over past 24 hours

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 11:56 AM
Kremlin Directing Its Info War Against Poland’s Extreme Right And Extreme Left – OpEd
https://lnkd.in/eU69RsS

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 01:27 PM
OSCE’s Hug: OSCE monitors and JCCC on ground at Stanytsia Luhanska bridge trying to defuse dangerous stand-off #Ukraine

Vodka laced day at the Russian embassy..
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/743784063987748864 …

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 01:34 PM
Putin will never truly understand the Maidan as he is an oligarch himself and rolling in billions so why the need to understand....

Putin: what was the point of the West supporting Maidan, bloodshed in the east? To justify NATO's sheer existence.

He is failing to remember he himself called out the support to the term "New Russia" in the Donbas and it was he would sent in over 14K Russian troops as an invasion force BUT again it was naturally "NATO's fault".

Yet he himself does not state that it was the resolution of the RF to go independent that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The eastern Ukraine was never threatened by events in Miadan and if left alone the devolution that is coming out of Maidan would have greatly benefited the Russian speakers of eastern Ukraine...that Putin does not want to talk about as it does not fit his narrative nor the propaganda of the last two years.....

Putin: it's not the matter of separatists. People there are scared of repression, scared that their interests will not be taken into account

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 05:30 PM
Putin and Yanukovych say the CIA staged Maidan to help Nazis destroy Russia [/B]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdvp188rk4 … http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/17-jun

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 06:03 PM
Putin and Yanukovych say the CIA staged Maidan to help Nazis destroy Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdvp188rk4 …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/17-jun

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 06:10 PM
Russian "party" is on again tonight......

20:55 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij Salvos sounds reach us from the south. Fire is conducted from misc places
https://twitter.com/loogunda/statu

20:50 NE #Donetsk @Shymanovski Dull bangs in the northwest

20:48 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij It booms again... far away, strongly

20:38 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] sporadic small arms

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 06:15 PM
Russia’s obstructionism confirms it still facilitates the flow of illegal arms & more to separatists in #Ukraine:
http://1.usa.gov/1W36GLV

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 07:40 PM
Tandit from SBU told why Ukraine sent 2 Ukrainian to Russia in swap
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/17-june-sbu-2-ukrainian-citizens-sent-recently-to-russia …
https://youtu.be/653XiQvUWWM

Russia planned to blown up bridges to South of Odesa region, and declare "Besarabska People Republic"

Glishinska & Didenko were part of that plan. After declaration of republic, Rus troops in Trasnistria had to enter as "green men"

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 07:44 PM
Suddenly Putin is "mellowing"...how strange is this.......

Putin agrees to armed OSCE mission in eastern Ukraine. Maybe he wants to provide arms and mission members too.
https://twitter.com/kvoneggert/status/743786552472461313 …

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 07:45 PM
Russian "party" is on again tonight......

20:55 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij Salvos sounds reach us from the south. Fire is conducted from misc places
https://twitter.com/loogunda/statu

20:50 NE #Donetsk @Shymanovski Dull bangs in the northwest

20:48 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij It booms again... far away, strongly

20:38 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] sporadic small arms

22:21 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] decent battle started, #boarding school area, heavy MG + AGL and mortars, grenade launchers

Azor
06-17-2016, 07:54 PM
According to the Jamestown Foundation, it is (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45516&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=40f59b4c1246575a2db65a4acc687a76#.V2RPzVYrKU k):
While continuing to exchange barbs, the West and Russia are building a more institutionalized pattern of standoff in Europe that involves increasingly predictable ###-for-tat mirrored actions. Both sides profess their actions to be purely defensive, but these are increasingly robust defenses.

...The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) forces are running a series of military exercises in the Baltic region...Russia, in turn, began massive snap exercises this week...both sides are eyeing each other’s moves attentively.

...In 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the outburst of fighting in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, the West’s reaction was dismay, close to panic...The worst expectations did not materialize: Russia-backed forces did not march west from Donbas to take Russian-speaking southern Ukraine up to Odesa or link up with the Russian garrison in Moldova’s breakaway territory of Transnistria. Romania and Bulgaria do not seem to be directly threatened, and Ukraine is still resisting. Western defense arrangements in Europe are being shifted to the Baltics and Poland, which look more potentially exposed.

...a standoff may be forming, like around Berlin during the Cold War, with threat balanced by counter-threat, force—with counter-force. If meticulously maintained, this standoff could be relatively stable.

Azor
06-17-2016, 09:12 PM
Azor...your points are taken but and there is always a but.....the US as well as the UK really do want to totally "forget" the 1994 Budapest Memorandum...go back and thoroughly reread it...it in fact could be read as to what the responsibilities of both parties are in the event that the Ukraine was invaded...there is even a specific paragraph on what constitutes getting them involved.

That is exactly why the Obama WH from the very beginning used the word "incursion" to get the illusion that the Russians were "not invading" thus the US was not forced to invoke Budapest even though it was not a formal treaty because Clinton knew he could not get it through Congress as a Treaty. But is the underlying international assumption at the time of the signing was.."you give up the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in exchange for our protection in the coming years IF".......

Well the IF came and the US/UK remained totally silent and Russia as always "reinterpreted" the agreement.

Remember Stalin in a 1933 speech to key Party members stated..."we will sign anything and follow it as longs as it benefits us and then ignore them when it does not"....

BUT what is interesting is that Nuland from DoS this last week for the first time used the word "invasion".

Reference the Putin fear of the "last man standing economic syndrome"....a friend of mine is a high German Customs Officer handling the Eastern European truck traffic which includes Russia......Russian long haul truck traffic is down 89% over year and month since 2015 and most of the returning long haul carrying capacity going in the direction of Russia is minimal.

When I commute on the highway that the Russian long haulers use I only see 1-2 per trip where it use to be 10-20.

Right now there are estimates that both eastern Ukraine and Syria are costing Russian 5-7M USDs per day and that for literally months now coupled with the Russian PM's recent Crimea statement to pensioners of "suck it up we are out of money" and indications that Russia is running late in paying their Ukrainian mercenary monthly salaries does not bode well economically speaking...

Reference the cruise missile...the US is highly concerned with the single test launch which was ground based where the missile far far exceeded treaty limits...now comes the problem...the analysts cannot say for certain if the onboard fuel was simply allowed to burn out to see exactly how far it would really travel or was it a deliberate test run for max target range...but when Russians develop a tactical/strategic missile system they tend to develop it for both ground and air launched abilities....

BTW....there are actually some "thinkers" inside Ukraine that will argue that it is far more beneficial for Ukraine to simply give the Donbas to Russia and move on...BUT Russia cannot even support Donbas and really only wants it for leverage and the Ukrainians are afraid this move would then be used to seal forever the return of Crimea--economically speaking decoupling from Donbas would actually help Ukraine long term.

Budapest Memorandum

No US presidential administration has given Ukraine a military commitment or submitted the agreement to ratification by the Senate. No parties are obligated to do anything other than consult with one another, unless of course nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine or threatened to be used. Were that the case, any US/UK/French-initiated UNSC resolution would be vetoed by Russia. Ukraine in 2014 is not Poland in 1939, and the Budapest Memorandum is not the Anglo-French-Polish agreements… Russia never would have made an agreement that allowed unilateral or multilateral British, American or French intervention in Ukraine absent a UNSC resolution. Ukraine had possession of Soviet nuclear weapons, but not operational control over them, and Russia stated that any Ukrainian attempt to hot-wire or hack the warheads would be considered an act of war. Basically, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus made the best deal they could at the time, when Russia was at its most generous. The United States was very concerned about the loss of control of Soviet nuclear weapons and material at the time, and would have supported Russia’s efforts to take control of Soviet warheads, even if that meant a joint Russo-American military operation.

Invasion vs. Incursion

In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia (outside of South Ossetia), here was the US reaction:


Bush: “…an invasion…unacceptable…a dangerous escalation…”
Rice: “…cease attacks on Georgia…respect Georgia’s territorial integrity, and withdraw…”
Cheney: “…Russian aggression…”


In 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea (outside of its basing area), here was the US reaction:


Obama: “…violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing…clear violation of Russia’s commitment…and international laws.”
Kerry: “…incredible act of aggression...invading another country…”


One can look at the events in Ukraine from March 2014 to present and call it a Russo-Ukrainian War; certainly the casualty count is much higher than the other wars in Moldova (Transnistria) and Georgia (2008). Indeed, Poroshenko has referred to it as a Ukrainian "Patriotic War". If Crimea and Donbas are two theaters or phases of that war, and Crimea began earlier, than Washington's initial use of the term "invasion" would cover Donbas as well.

If Donbas is looked at as a separate conflict, then there are complicating factors to calling it an invasion:


There are millions of dual Russian-Ukrainian citizens, and over one million Ukrainian “refugees” in Russia. Moreover, most Ukrainians speak Russian, and so observers were trying to go by accents...
If dual Ukrainian-Russian citizens or Ukrainian citizens are trained and armed in Russia, re-enter Ukraine and join the separatists, it is difficult to call an invasion (then Turkey would be “invading” Syria)
It is certain that Russian artillery and aircraft near the Ukrainian border fired into Ukraine. But that is not an invasion
In March 2014, it was evident that Russian SF and intelligence operatives were on the ground in Donbas, but difficult to prove, given the ethnic, linguistic and nationality issues involved
In August 2014, regular Russian forces began rotating in and out of Donbas on a contingency basis, five months after the Donbas conflict began. Again, their presence has been difficult to prove


The Donbas War is definitely an invasion, but an unconventional one, and Western leaders have been correct in avoiding a public relations quagmire that would only result in Western publics asking: well, what will you do about it, then? Washington's rhetoric concerning its preferences in Syria was above and beyond the level of commitment that the US intended to take to achieve those objectives, which Moscow aptly demonstrated. Obama has returned to being lecturer-in-chief on domestic issues only...

Russian Economic Woes

I agree that Russia is eager to hand off Donbas, and has abandoned the Novorossiya project altogether. To some degree, the front line violence can be attributed to rebel fighters wanting to keep the party going, however, Russian special forces have clearly taken out a number of troublesome unit commanders, and a number of Yanukovych’s former inner circle have mysteriously passed away as well.

I also agree that it is in Kyiv’s best interest to seal off Donbas and focus on developing the Ukrainian economy. Neither Russia nor the separatists will allow that to happen, as in ten or more years it will seem like divided Germany or the Korean Peninsula.

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 06:24 AM
Azor…Budapest Memorandum 1994

Confirm the following:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind;

4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.

The Presidents of Ukraine, Russian Federation and United States of America, and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom signed three memorandums (UN Document A/49/765) on December 5, 1994, with the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Through this agreement, these countries (later to include China and France in individual statements) gave national security assurances to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The Joint Declaration by the Russian Federation and the United States of America of December 4, 2009 confirmed their commitment.

International law wise this agreement is a legally binding inferred security guarantee especially with the signature of a US President on it.

BTW...did you see the UNSC called into action as required in the agreement?...no why Russia is both the aggressor and the guarantor of the agreement and would have used their veto just as they have done repeatedly on Syria when it does not fit their needs. that is the problem with Minsk 2...Russian troops are inside Ukraine and they fund, train, supply and lead their mercenaries all the while claiming to not be there and at the same guarantor of Minsk 2....in the world of true international relations a nation cannot be both...but Obama and Kerry blew it and now have to live with it also in Syria.....

This is the Russian explanation of why they did not violate the Budapest Memorandum in Crimea and in the defense of "Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine"….remember the words of Stalin to key Party members in 1933….”we will sign all treaties or agreements if they benefit the Soviet Union and then ignore them if they are no further interest to us”……….

Now with that in mind check the first series of comments when he indicates .in German ….”no other country can guarantee the territorial integrity of another nation state ..that is legal craziness…”

Now do you see Stalin hard at work…….has always been the guiding principle in Russian International Relations since 1933…ie for example claiming to the world they are in a 48 hour ceasefire in Aleppo and then bombing the hell out of Aleppo all arguing ….”it was them not us”…..

This sentence is telling in that they fully understand that their signature was in fact a security guarantee as he is attempting to negate it thus making Russia a non violator.

Sorry but this is in German..but sometimes German is far more accurate in reflecting the tone and exactness of Russian…..

STIMME RUSSLANDS Bei der Aufnahme der Krim hat Russland laut Premier Dmitri Medwedjew gegen nicht gegen internationale Verpflichtungen - genauer das Budapester Memorandum - verstoßen.

„Diese Vorwürfe sind haltlos. Die Russische Föderation kommt ihren Verpflichtungen nach. Kein einziger Staat der Welt kann aber die territoriale Integrität eines anderen Staates garantieren – das ist juristischer Unsinn“, sagte Medwedjew am Samstag in einem Interview für den staatlichen russischen Fernsehsender Rossija. Diejenigen, die darüber sprechen, sollten das Budapester Memorandum aufmerksamer lesen.

Die 1994 von Russland im „Budapester Memorandum“ übernommenen Garantien galten für die „Situation einer Gefährdung der Souveränität der Ukraine, sollte diese von jemandem bedroht werden“.

„Alles, was mit der Krim geschah, ist eine völlig andere Geschichte“, betonte Medwedjew. „Es war das Volk selber, das sich als einen selbständigen Teil der Ukraine identifizierte und die Initiative hervorbrachte, ein Referendum abzuhalten.“ Bei der Volksabstimmung stimmte es für den Austritt aus der Ukraine. Es komme in der Welt vor, dass sich Staaten spalten, fügte er hinzu.

„Nur ein Staat selbst, sein Volk und seine Behörden“ können seine territoriale Integrität garantieren, betonte Medwedjew.

BTW...this sentence is telling for Russian actions then and currently....

RIA Novosti / STIMME RUSSLANDS
Weiterlesen: http://de.sputniknews.com/german.ruvr.ru/news/2014_05_24/Medwedjew-Krim-Aufnahme-ist-kein-Versto-gegen-Budapester-Memorandum-5952/

Reference Obama and the use of the word “incursion”…go back to all and I mean all of his comments, press statements and interviews since Crimea and you will find not a single mention of the word “invasion” by him because when that word is used by a US President in infers that he must take some form of action and there are at three treaties and international agreements that he could have used starting with the Helsinki Act which clearly states all nations have the right to travel the route they want to take regardless of what block they were in......BTW Russia is often fast to point back to Helsinki.....when need be.

Remember is famous press statement in 2014…..”we will judge Putin on his actions not his words”

Well yesterday the RuAF used cluster munitions on the New Syrian Army a fully identified proxy and US backed in southern Syria on the Syrian Iraq border whose intent was the cutting off of IS movements between the two countries AND they have never attacked Assad in any form……US DoD via the so called Russian US emergency hotline informed the Russians of their mistake and asked them to stop bombing the NSA and as good measure the RuAF struck them again BECAUSE as many including myself have said often and over and over IS is supported by both Assad and Putin and are part and parcel of their Syrian project to make the Syrain people choose between IS and Assad…..

AND what was the US response…..crickets…..

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 10:16 AM
In a speech yesterday in German the German FM accused NATO of "warmongering" in the holding of exercises in the Baltics and Poland....an area Russia has definitely threatened in the last two years.....

'Kriegstreiberei' der @NATO?!
#Steinmeier stellt sich auf die Seite Russlands
Ein fatales Signal
Untragbar der Mann.

BUT remember this German FM has stated often that Ukraine has to negotiate with the Russian mercenaries and to hold elections in the Russian occupied eastern Ukraine and still has repeatedly failed to push equally Russia to leave eastern Ukraine.

AND he is still saying in the face of a massive Russian bombing campaign that the CoH is "largely holding"....there is talk within the German political party CDU from Merkel that Steinmeir is often on another planet and she has to correct his mistakes......

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 10:34 AM
In a speech yesterday in German the German FM accused NATO of "warmongering" in the holding of exercises in the Baltics and Poland....an area Russia has definitely threatened in the last two years.....

'Kriegstreiberei' der @NATO?!
#Steinmeier stellt sich auf die Seite Russlands
Ein fatales Signal
Untragbar der Mann.
bbc.com/news/world-europe-36566422 …

BUT remember this German FM has stated often that Ukraine has to negotiate with the Russian mercenaries and to hold elections in the Russian occupied eastern Ukraine and still has repeatedly failed to push equally Russia to leave eastern Ukraine.

AND he is still saying in the face of a massive Russian bombing campaign that the CoH is "largely holding"....there is talk within the German political party CDU from Merkel that Steinmeir is often on another planet and she has to correct his mistakes......

Those that have studied German history......should heed this statement as it reflects the thinking of many Eastern European leaders and politicians especially the Polish......

Steinmeier is reincarnation of von Papen. Unbelievable to have such a dangerous person in a position of influence.

That an appeaser like Steinmeier can become foreign minister in a county with Germany's history is a mystery to me. https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/744113173649842176 …

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 10:45 AM
In a speech yesterday in German the German FM accused NATO of "warmongering" in the holding of exercises in the Baltics and Poland....an area Russia has definitely threatened in the last two years.....

'Kriegstreiberei' der @NATO?!
#Steinmeier stellt sich auf die Seite Russlands
Ein fatales Signal
Untragbar der Mann.
bbc.com/news/world-europe-36566422 …

BUT remember this German FM has stated often that Ukraine has to negotiate with the Russian mercenaries and to hold elections in the Russian occupied eastern Ukraine and still has repeatedly failed to push equally Russia to leave eastern Ukraine.

AND he is still saying in the face of a massive Russian bombing campaign that the CoH is "largely holding"....there is talk within the German political party CDU from Merkel that Steinmeir is often on another planet and she has to correct his mistakes......

BUT WAIT....even the German FM must know this.........

Kremlin considers NATO's build-up hundreds of kilometers from Russian borders to be a violation of something ..... in their eyes anything is lately a violation that NATO says and or does.....so nothing new there..... and WHY the German FM stated the above is a surprise to many Europeans...

It is almost like the German FM wants to give as the SG of NATO stated....a deep military sphere of influence all along the Russian border......


BUT WAIT...notice the Russian use of the same word....."warmongering".......

Russian communists KPRF staged march in Moscow against warmongering policy of NATO
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2016/18-june-russian-communists-kprf-staged-march-in-moscow-against …

The German SPD has had a long history of trying to distance itself from Communists and the Left Wing political spectrum....in German and especially in Russia....

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 11:00 AM
Russian diplomat detained in Kharkiv on bribe suspicion (video)
http://uatoday.tv/crime/russian-diplomat-detained-in-kharkiv-on-bribe-suspicion-video-675146.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 11:03 AM
Ukraine Only One Aspect of a Crisis Affecting Entire Post-Soviet Space, Portnikov Says
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/ukraine-only-one-aspect-of-crisis.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 07:26 PM
Russia calls up reservists in massive snap drill which includes all military districts. Total numbers unknown

PUTIN CALLS URGENT RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING ON "THREATS TO KALININGRAD", RIA SAYS
pic.twitter.com/okfpM6vEM4 (via @akihheikkinen )

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 07:27 PM
OSCE attempts to get Russian mercenaries to move out of their illegally taken positions....in full violation of Minsk 2....

OSCE: This position was established after armed “LPR” members had crossed the contact line.
#Stanytsia_Luhanska

OSCE: “LPR” members continue to maintain an armed pos. north of Siverskyi Donets river, beyond the contact line at Stanytsia Luhanska bridge

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 07:29 PM
OSCE UAV's global position system was jammed again while flying near “DPR”-controlled #Horlivka yesterday.

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 07:45 PM
Azor........
Russia has repeatedly war-gamed tactical nuclear attacks on eastern Europe Nato members
https://twitter.com/matisaksk/status/744093220460724224 …

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 08:04 PM
Russia is really partying tonight....... has been ongoing for awhile.......

Also incoming fire in #Sakhanka, #Kominternove, #Lebedinske. Ukrainian army is firing back.

Strangely, quiet also in Krasnohorivka. Ruscists are busy elsewhere tonight.

23:04 #Mariupol - the canonade has resumed. Somewhere in the direction of #Talakivka-#Shyrokyne.

22:47 #Mariupol area @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] Being near #Pionerske, one can clearly hear mortars&heavy MGs fr/the dir'n of #Lebedynske&#Sakhanka

22:25 Battle ongoing at #Avdiivka's Promka.

Ukr forces at #Vodyane (Mariupol) are still under heavy fire. RU forces use 120-mm mortars, 122-mm and 152-mm artillery. One Ukr soldier KIA

In #Mariupol they still can hear the battle towards east from the city.
22:35

Pro Russians shelling Ukrainian positions with tank near #Pavlopol.
Also incoming in #Talakivka and #Hnutove. #Mariupol can hear it.

21:30 #Mariupol area @GirkinGirkin CP at #Kominternove - #Vodyane - #Lebedynske: 1.5hr ongoing skirmish w/use of machine guns and GLs

One hour ago...
In Talakivka wounded 1 Ukrainian serviceman (Mariupol direction)
Fighting goes on...
https://m.facebook.com/zoryan.zoryan/posts/1111040362290243 …

22:15 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru] #Gvardeyka, #Butovka: listening to #Avdiivka direction, #Yasynuvata CP, periodically

22:06 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin #Promka: battle, more than likely tanks are shelling

22:00 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin Artillery started to work

21:40 #Yasynuvata #Lager[? =http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=48.143869&lon=37.858543&z=14&m=b&show=/3493120 …] @GirkinGirkin and again whistle and cracks of bullets

21:31 #Mariupol @zanzy1975 UA positions near #Mariupol are under RU constant RU fire for 2hrs so far, series of rumbles, "large weapon"

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2016, 08:17 PM
Germany For Minister blamed Nato's "warmongering and
stomping boots" for #Russia tension
"http://www.thelocal.de/20160618/germany-slams-nato-warmongering-on-russia …

BUT WAIT...maybe he needs to spend the night tonight on the UAF front lines....and experience Russian FP ........up close and personal......

Heavy shelling of Ukrainian positions east of #Mariupol with 120mm mortars and 152mm artillery right now. Reports of one KIA in #Vodyane.
23:13 #Kadiivka @DNSRRSTRTS There have been 3-4 booms and quiet

23:21 #Kadiivka @DNSRRSTRTS Seemingly, a cannon is working somewhere, already 6 salvos since 23:19

Azor
06-18-2016, 09:53 PM
Budapest Memorandum 1994

4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

Obviously I confirm the above from the agreement.

Looking at clause 4, it appears that a UNSC resolution would only be invoked if aggression against Ukraine involved the use or threat of nuclear weapons. There is no separate clause demanding UNSC action if Ukraine is subject to non-nuclear aggression. Clause 6 only obligates the parties to consult in the event of a "question" arising.

There are rumors of Russian nuclear threats against various NATO members (Poland, Romania, Denmark, United States), but the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has been entirely non-nuclear. While Russia has clearly violated the agreement, and publicly been censured, there is no mechanism in the agreement for forcing a Russian withdrawal.


International law wise this agreement is a legally binding inferred security guarantee especially with the signature of a US President on it.

We've established that at best, consultation is demanded. Moreover, the agreement is not a treaty and was never ratified by Congress.


...did you see the UNSC called into action as required in the agreement?...no why Russia is both the aggressor and the guarantor of the agreement and would have used their veto

Well, again, it appears that UNSC action would require a nuclear dimension to the aggression. But yes, we know Russia would use its veto power, which was obvious in 1994 as well.


...but Obama and Kerry blew it and now have to live with it also in Syria...

How did Obama and Kerry "blow it" in Ukraine? By not deploying US forces to fight with the UAF? By not arming the UAF? By not pursuing the dead end of a UNGA or UNSC resolution?


This is the Russian explanation of why they did not violate the Budapest Memorandum in Crimea and in the defense of "Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine"

I've read that the Kremlin believes that foreign powers, specifically the US, violated the Budapest Memorandum in 2013-2014 by staging a coup against the Yanukovych/Party of Regions government. Therefore, the Russian invasion is technically a response to a violation, even though Russia had been interfering in Ukraine, including using economic coercion, for years.

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 09:20 AM
More casualties among Ukraine troops as militants continue fierce shelling
http://www.unian.info/war/1380211-more-casualties-among-ukraine-troops-as-militants-continue-fierce-shelling.html …

Rus-militant troops mortared Novozvanivka, Troyitske. 1 Ukr serviceman was KIA, 2 WIA - Luhansk regional admin
http://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-regions/2036906-bojoviki-obstrilali-novozvanivku-i-troicke-zaginuv-vijskovij-se-dvoe-poraneni.html …

"militant" = Russian Armed Forces militia with Russian Ground Forces staff officers & NCOs in command. https://twitter.com/uatodaytv/status/744448935859752960 …

Russian Armed Forces TV taking an interest in #Mariupol
https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/status/744455968583454720 …

Night at positions near Donetsk
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-night-at-positions-near-donetsk …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpB7SsLqxFg …

Shocking! In his essay on Germany's new global role, #ger Foreign Minister #Steinmeier does *not* mention NATO once! https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2016-06-13/germany-s-new-global-role?cid=soc-tw-rdr …

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 10:16 AM
Russians are "partying" again and early today.....

12:30 downtown #Horlivka @gipsogolovij Several "metallic" salvos w/1-min interval came from NW Horlivka

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 10:45 AM
Putin starts issuing demands again against Ukraine.....

Putin said that Kyiv had to grant the special status to the occupied territories of #Ukraine “as soon as possible.”
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/putin-discusses-ukraine-at-saint-petersburg-economic-forum-416652.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 02:20 PM
More casualties among #Ukraine troops as militants continue fierce shellings
http://uatoday.tv/politics/more-casualties-among-ukraine-troops-as-militants-continue-fierce-shelling-675446.html …

Three Ukr servicemen were killed in action over the last day, one was WIA - ATO spox
http://espreso.tv/news/2016/06/19/za_mynulu_dobu_zagynuly_troye_viyskovosluzhbovciv …

GSW, shrapnel, loss of blood -- it's all in a day's work for medical volunteers in Avdiyivka
http://www.rferl.org/media/video/ukraine-avdiivka-doctors-war/27802231.html …

Russian tank near Yubileyne, Luhansk region
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-russian-tank-near-yubileyne-luhansk-region …
pic.twitter.com/G0ECttdRvw

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 02:44 PM
Steinmeier - Make Europe weak again.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0Z50BJ?irpc=932 …

Now we can understand his pressure on Ukraine to cave to Russian demands on elections being held in Russian occupied eastern Ukraine......

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 05:00 PM
Today near Mariupol...
Evacuation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=818125281655509&id=100003741352754 …

Colonel Andriy Lysenko: 50 fighters from Russian Federation arrive at Yasynuvata
http://uacrisis.org/44280-andrij-lisenko-227 …

3 Ukrainian Soldiers Killed, 1 Wounded; Russian-Backed Militants Fire on Ambulances
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-853/#14262

АТО forces eliminated three and wounded five occupants in Donbas, - Defense Ministry
http://en.censor.net.ua/n394021

Drunk Russian occupants provoked accident with victims in Donbas, - Defense Ministry
http://en.censor.net.ua/n394036

Night at positions near Donetsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpB7SsLqxFg …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-night-at-positions-near-donetsk …

Russian drone reportedly shotdown over Avdiivka
pic.twitter.com/RbxK0ZR4U4
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-russian-drone-reportedly-shotdown-over-avdiivka …

Russian forces mortared Novozvanivka, Troyitske. 1 Ukr serviceman was KIA, 2 WIA - Luhansk regional admin
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-russian-forces-mortared-novozvanivka-troyitske-1 …

Heavy fighting near Vodyane, Mariupol area. Rus forces fire artillery, 1 Ukr KIA
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-advisor-to-interior-minist-shkiryak-reports-heavy …

Avdiivka: church bells ringing cause of Trinity and shelling ongoing
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-avdiivka-church-bells-ringing-cause-of-trinity-and …

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 05:46 PM
44 ceasefire violations yesterday at Donbas
pic.twitter.com/LUme3yMbeR
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-44-ceasefire-violations-yesterday-at-donbas …

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 05:48 PM
German Social Democratic Party is having a hard time figuring out who their masters are.....in Moscow.......as that is where the money is......

75 yrs after German invasion of Soviet Union, Berlin wants to put its troops on Russia’s borders again - Schroeder
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june-75-yrs-after-german-invasion-of-soviet-union-berlin …

German SPD FM....declared NATO to be warmonger.......

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 06:10 PM
ln.is/www.informator.news/wx7iZ …
many killed russian soldiers lie in a morgue in the occupied town Makeevka. They were killed in fighting yesterday

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 06:26 PM
Crimean Tatar Battalion raises its flag above checkpoint with Russia-occupied peninsula
http://www.unian.info/society/1380387-crimean-tatar-battalion-raises-its-flag-above-checkpoint-with-russia-occupied-peninsula.html …

3 Ukrainian soldiers were killed by #Russia's invasion army & its local proxies in eastern #Ukraine on Saturday.
15 so far this month
R.I.P.

Motorola terrorist to be put on international wanted list soon, - Herashchenko
http://en.censor.net.ua/n394009

Interpol refuses to search for Russian militant suspected of war crimes in Donbas ::
http://khpg.org http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465857439 …

Russia, 2015
GDP growth: -4%
Industrial production: -4.6%
Inflation: 16%
Interest rate: 11%
Currency value: -44%

Russia uses Terror against #CrimeanTatars - 25 days since Ervin #Ibragimov was abducted
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1466293039 …

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 07:28 PM
Russians are "partying" again and early today.....

12:30 downtown #Horlivka @gipsogolovij Several "metallic" salvos w/1-min interval came from NW Horlivka

19:06 #Donetsk #Butovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] have just listened small arms, like MG

21:20 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]

21:25 #Donetsk #Petrovka @rjpthjuljytwr Salvos started, single but strong. Not loud but w/vibration

#Trudovski: one can hear battle
#Petrovka: #Trust is listening heavies
#Abakumova: periodically heard

Maryinka 22:10
Hearing very heavy incoming towards #Krasnohorivka.

22:11 #Marinka @allex1984 wow, so far #Krasnohorivka is under heavy fire

22:09 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] again incomings resumed

22:25 "Orcs woke up, mortars..."
[UAF positions at N from #Horlivka.]
https://twitter.com/Helgi__UA/status/744612095329701888 …

22:08 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] landings at the frontline, probably 82mm shells or tank projectiles

22:10 #Donetsk #Petrovka #ploschadka1 @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]
battle #Staromykhaylivka-#Krasnohorivka, small arms and heavier

Krasnohorivka
22:24 - Intensivity decreased, small arms shooting.
22:29 - Explosions and shooting.

22:29 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] a boom and small arms

22:33 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] again skirmishes, so far small arms and heavy [MG]

Krasnohorivka
23.12 Battle continues.
23.16 Three powerful incomings https://twitter.com/hyeva_maryinka/status/744625831729893376 …

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 07:53 PM
4pows defender of Ukraine and vigilant guard at the frontline
https://m.facebook.com/backandalive/photos/a.346200148870762.1073741828.346164665540977/646230218867752/?type=3 …

In recent days, about 1500 tons of fuel & 8 trucks with ammo entered occupied eastern #Ukraine from #Russia, military l intel reports

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 08:08 PM
There is an interesting discussion ongoing over the potential attack on UAF by a Russian fighter during the heavy Debaltseve fighting that is just now being openly talked about.....especially since NATO ISR assets should have seen and recorded Russian military air movements....

Appears there is eye witness evidence and the UAF is finally slowly admitting that they shot it down during the heavy fighting.....

And that #Rus jet, who attacked us in #Debaltseve, but missed, was shot down by Ukraine's anti-aircraft systems, acc to my info

Previously I declined, but now I can confirm that #Rus used jets against us in #Debaltseve on Jan 2015.

Another commenter-------I saw jets twice outside Sherikino, so I hold Viktors claim as creditable

We had a disc-n in Kyiv about this. I got confirm-n of this recently from officer of indep-nt detachment.

It wasn't reported, not to create panic among troops & society. It's obvious. It was 1 time #Rus random missing airstrike.

Social media had also picked up other AC movements during those three months of heavy fighting.....

Plane with no callsing heading towards #Luhansk i've spooted on Flightradar on 25.03.2015
https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/580645765434966016 …

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 08:33 PM
@MaxRTucker And I can disclose no more a secret: You're right, as a journo about #Rus jet attacked us in #Debaltseve. It missed a target

OUTLAW 09
06-19-2016, 08:34 PM
Reference the German FMs comments this weekend about NATO.......

Conclusions for Poland?

SPD establishment is compromised/unreliable.

For tango? Only CDU (Merkel) & the Greens.

https://twitter.com/uli_speck/stat

Azor
06-19-2016, 10:26 PM
According to Ismay, NATO's purpose was to: " keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."

It is worrisome to see that as NATO gradually regroups in the face of Russian provocations, Germany's SPD is working to undermine the alliance.

The SPD, quite frankly, would take Poland to the ICJ or PCA over parts of Western Poland before it broaches the subject of Kaliningrad (or Ukraine) with Russia.

Merkel has proven to be absolutely useless on the Russian file, and has hollowed out the Germany military to the point that it would be unable to aid any fellow NATO member under attack.

Berlin has sought to enforce Brussels' writ over Europe even as Europe's defenses are weakened and migrants are overrunning the borders.

And yet NATO must also deal with a duplicitous Turkey...

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 05:13 AM
Steinmeier - Make Europe weak again.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0Z50BJ?irpc=932 …

Now we can understand his pressure on Ukraine to cave to Russian demands on elections being held in Russian occupied eastern Ukraine......

Steinmeier was also pushing to lift sanctions on Russia...then this came via Austria....also a pro Russian supporter...

slon.ru/posts/69671
Austrian foreign minister proposes partially removing sanctions against Russia for each step of Minsk 2 fulfillment.

The problem is that once sanctions start easing at what point will Russia just stop the fulfillment of the requirements...meaning can Russia live with say 30---40---50% of the sanctions lifted YET not fulfilling the critical elements of Minsk 2...namely pulling out all Russian troops and the disarming of her mercenaries and returning border controls to Ukraine....

Russia has not fulfilled a single point of Minsk2 and now the EU starts to want to loosen the sanctions and Russia has done nothing....

Austria FM was against #sanctions to begin with
http://www.dw.com/en/austrian-president-rails-against-eu-sanctions-on-russia/a-19170171 …
now he joins #Steinmeier step-wise formula
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN0Z50V9 …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 05:28 AM
According to Ismay, NATO's purpose was to: " keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."

It is worrisome to see that as NATO gradually regroups in the face of Russian provocations, Germany's SPD is working to undermine the alliance.

The SPD, quite frankly, would take Poland to the ICJ or PCA over parts of Western Poland before it broaches the subject of Kaliningrad (or Ukraine) with Russia.

Merkel has proven to be absolutely useless on the Russian file, and has hollowed out the Germany military to the point that it would be unable to aid any fellow NATO member under attack.

Berlin has sought to enforce Brussels' writ over Europe even as Europe's defenses are weakened and migrants are overrunning the borders.

And yet NATO must also deal with a duplicitous Turkey...

Azor...you make some interesting points for someone not residing here in Berlin.....will expand on your thoughts later today......

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 05:43 AM
Combined Rus-combined forces fired 31 times upon Ukr troops y/day (44 times the day b4). Hottest spot was Krasnohorivka - ATO press center

Krasnohorivka, Suvorova nr 4, direct hit last night, two people wounded.
https://twitter.com/hyeva_maryinka/status/744760037483110401 …

Krasnohorivka was shelled from 82-mm and 120-mm mortars, 152-mm artillery and tanks.

Russian forces shelled UAF pos. at Troitske and Novozvanivka (Popasna r) w mortars & artillery, 1 soldier KIA, 2 WIA
http://lugradar.net/?p=128103

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 05:45 AM
According to Ismay, NATO's purpose was to: " keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."

It is worrisome to see that as NATO gradually regroups in the face of Russian provocations, Germany's SPD is working to undermine the alliance.

The SPD, quite frankly, would take Poland to the ICJ or PCA over parts of Western Poland before it broaches the subject of Kaliningrad (or Ukraine) with Russia.

Merkel has proven to be absolutely useless on the Russian file, and has hollowed out the Germany military to the point that it would be unable to aid any fellow NATO member under attack.

Berlin has sought to enforce Brussels' writ over Europe even as Europe's defenses are weakened and migrants are overrunning the borders.

And yet NATO must also deal with a duplicitous Turkey...

Azor....if you can read German...Die Welt attacked Steinmeier this morning which is highly unusual......they called his actions...an non loyal attack on NATO...

DIE WELT
✔ @welt Nato-Manver: Steinmeiers beispielloser Akt der Illoyalitt
http://to.welt.de/013AJZL

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 05:54 AM
Another Russian non linear front.....religion........

Russian no-show at historic Orthodox council seen as bid for power by Moscow
http://jtim.es/QdyT301qbXd

Azor
06-20-2016, 07:25 AM
Azor...you make some interesting points for someone not residing here in Berlin.....will expand on your thoughts later today......

I keep track of Der Spiegel in English...

Every time the migrants commit another rape in a small town or Putin's guys throw a party in Donbas, there is an article on Poland: how Poland should accept post-war expellee claims, and how PiS is transforming the country into an authoritarian dictatorship along the lines of Russia or Hungary. Apparently, Merkel's Germany, where migrants are first-class citizens, citizens are unarmed, the German nation wills itself out of existence, social media is censored, and the borders and military wither on the vine, is the only true form of democracy...

Yet no discussion of how Holocaust reparations include nuclear cruise missile-armed Dolphin subs to Israel or how Merkel's anti-nuclear policies have only increased dependence on Russia or how Israel but not Poland or Greece is entitled to reparations and eternal apologies, or how Germany is circumventing its EU partners by building a pipeline direct to Russia.

Apologies for the rant :)

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 08:32 AM
I keep track of Der Spiegel in English...

Every time the migrants commit another rape in a small town or Putin's guys throw a party in Donbas, there is an article on Poland: how Poland should accept post-war expellee claims, and how PiS is transforming the country into an authoritarian dictatorship along the lines of Russia or Hungary. Apparently, Merkel's Germany, where migrants are first-class citizens, citizens are unarmed, the German nation wills itself out of existence, social media is censored, and the borders and military wither on the vine, is the only true form of democracy...

Yet no discussion of how Holocaust reparations include nuclear cruise missile-armed Dolphin subs to Israel or how Merkel's anti-nuclear policies have only increased dependence on Russia or how Israel but not Poland or Greece is entitled to reparations and eternal apologies, or how Germany is circumventing its EU partners by building a pipeline direct to Russia.

Apologies for the rant :)

Azor....everything you say is actually correct and nothing to add....when I have some time I will go deeper into your comments as you are correct in your assumptions of the games Germany plays since the Wall and before...BTW also towards the GDR citizens/companies during the so called lopsided "reunification"....which we see now being again repeated via the SPD and to an extent the CDU with the CSU sliding into the "populist zone" to compete with the AfD and the NPD which if you know former CSU politics under Franz Joseph Strauss they were actually quite close to each other in their political statements/views in the 80s.

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 09:04 AM
I have and keep repeating here at SWJ over and over...there are two critical cornerstones to a successful Russian non linear war;
1.cyber warfare
2. informational warfare

IE the "weaponization of both these"

As one who has a company dueling daily with the criminal side of Russian cyber warfare and who cannot often tell where the Russian criminal activity ends and the Russian FSB begins it is seriously time for the US to wake up and smell the coffee as there are people far more capable in this realm than many in the US currently believe possible...just because we developed the internet and drive IT development does not mean Americans are the smartest in this business nor that Silicon Valley has all the answers....

We have been long surpassed and need urgently to catch up and we really do need to look at our Federal laws and loosen up and allow some things that are basically illegal by federal law if one hunts down say a major criminal driven DDS/DDoS attacks or uses a "rented botnet to steal money from banks or businesses" or 1-800 darknet help desks used in "ransomware attacks"....or the development and use of darknet bot networks to drive social media trolling in support of information warfare......


The West Must Respond to Russia´s Increasing Cyber Aggression

By Jarno Limnéll
June 15, 2016

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/06/west-must-respond-russias-increasing-cyber-aggression/129090/?oref=DefenseOneTCO

As Russian hackers take center stage in the pantheon of cyber adversaries, NATO needs to step up.



Who’s the biggest cyber threat? Not long ago, China and its economic espionage were at the center of the Western narrative, but Russia has elbowed its way in.

“The Russian cyber threat is more severe than we had previously assessed,” U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last year. More recently, Adm. Michael Rogers, who leads the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, said, “Russia has very capable cyber operators who can and do work with speed, precision and stealth.” Today’s headlines include the news that Russian hackers appear to have stolen opposition research on Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

Yet even as the narrative shifts, there are two features of Russia´s cyber activities that remain too poorly known and understood in the West.

First, Russia´s greatest cyber advantage is its wealth of the most important cyber asset: skilled and well-educated people. The government recruits and harnesses individuals with innovation and aplomb — for example, allowing its intelligence services to offer employment to hackers convicted of cyber crimes in lieu of prison. But the more important trend is making common cause with criminal hacker groups: the government allows them safe haven in return for services on demand. In this way, the Russian government has been intentionally blurring the lines between cyber activists, criminals, and state-paid spies and hackers, adding a new layer of obfuscation to the trickly problem of attribution — that is, figuring out just who is behind a given attack. The result is a cadre of well-financed, persistent and technologically advanced “non-state groups” that can carry out various operations — and do so on a scale of a year or longer until they get what they are after. Some of the ones we know about go by the names APT28, the Dukes, Red October, Snake, and Energetic Bear.

Second, Russians acting for the government or with its approval are testing the boundaries of the cyber battlefield. Having already demonstrated its willingness to use such means in various conflicts and gray-zone confrontations, Russia is at the forefront of the global move toward a greater strategic use of cyber capabilities to persuade adversaries to change their behavior. Hackers with connections to the Kremlin have attacked, for example, a French television network, a German steelmaker, the Polish stock market, and the U.S. State Department. These activities are carried out in pursuit of Russia´s strategic objectives.

Even if the attribution to Kremlin has been pretty clearly presented, there has been very limited political response from the West. This is encouraging – from the Russian point of view – because it is a license to act even more aggressively in the cyber domain. The coordinated attack on the Ukrainian electrical grid in December was clearly an attack on critical national infrastructure. Russia showed what it can do, when it wants. This should have awoken the West. But it did not.

It is difficult to say exactly where Russia might rank among the world’s cyber forces; governments like to keep their cyber abilities secret, and such capabilities cannot be calculated in the same way as tanks or fighter planes. Still, it is known that Vladimir Putin has poured resources and manpower into the field, creating a cyber command within the Defense Ministry to conduct cyber and information operations. The Russia military also has a specialized unit for cyber attacks, while the Federal Protective Service (FSO), the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) are believed to have the lead in creating Russia´s offensive cyber capabilities. It is no stretch to assert that Russia is among the world’s top three, and when states´ level of offensive and defense capabilities are combined with their cyber dependence, Russia’s position appears to be the strongest in the world. To the Kremlin, the cyber domain offers an excellent opportunity to increase its power in world politics.

The more Russia develops its cyber capabilities, the more aggressive and confident it will become. Russia has the ability and will to conduct denial-of-service attacks, develop sophisticated malware, and exploit unknown software vulnerabilities. Unlike China, Russian cyber activities focus primarily on intelligence-gathering and military reconnaissance of critical infrastructure networks. Today’s intelligence operations enable tomorrow’s actions, and Russia is mapping networks to determine the resources necessary for future attacks.

The Russian government has stepped up its state-sponsored cyber attacks because it perceives that there is no significant “price to pay” for such activities. This trend will continue as long as the West doesn´t push back.

A political response is now needed. The West should not tolerate Russian´s behavior in cyberspace. Western nations must develop effective ways to deal with Russia’s cyber operations and have the political courage to act against it. This is one important topic to be discussed in NATO´s upcoming summit in Warsaw. Otherwise, the West will continue to send the wrong message to Kremlin.


In our new story on Russian influence on referendums: Portrait of a Troll
https://www.occrp.org/en/other/5369-portrait-of-a-troll …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 10:00 AM
OSCE SMM UAV continues 2 spot high-tech jamming station S of Donetsk. R-330ZH Zhitel
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/20-june-osce-smm-uav-continues-2-spot-hightech-jamming-station …

Only country using this system: Russia.
Pic by: OSCE. Chance miners and tractor drivers are able to use: 0. Gotcha. …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 10:11 AM
When RT goes "Urgent" then you know something is seriously happening and it apparently is......

RT
✔ @RT_com URGENT: Explosion, heavy blaze at ammunition depot in S. Russia, hundreds evacuated
http://on.rt.com/7g2p

BUT at first it was reported as a fire in a building located on a landfill site....must have been a camouflaged site......then the reporting went urgent...

Will wait to see if further news drifts in on this fire.....

In Astrakhan region of Russia fire at missile engines warehouse
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2016/20-june-in-astrakhan-region-fire-at-missile-engines-warehouse …
pic.twitter.com/ZvuSwAUGgT


TASS
✔ @tassagency_en Rocket boosters on fire at military test site in south Russia — source
http://tass.ru/en/defense/883483 …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 07:06 PM
2 Ukrainian soldiers killed near Verknetoretske in mortar attack this morning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1v85EVu80Q … http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/20-june-2-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-near-verknetoretske-in …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 08:13 PM
Some light humor........
Wales 2 - Russia 0. In unrelated news Putin just deployed a battalion of troops into Llandudno

Careful Wales ; Putin has a habit of invading small countries that upset him -

WALRUS is now 3 to 0

Sources: Russian 'tourists' are departing for Wales already tonight. #EURO2016

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 08:23 PM
Gen. Hodges: "Russians are able to move huge formations...a long distance very fast"
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36577588 …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 08:29 PM
Russia and her mercenaries are "partying" heavily again tonight......will catch up with the number of attacks in the morning.....

"Partying" is being held in the traditional favorite Russian locations.......

23:01 #Avdiivka - BMP and many small arms firing. #Promka
https://twitter.com/LuftGanza/status/744983629072371712 …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 08:35 PM
Reference the Russian shot down of MH17....

Sergey Zenin emails confirmed that the Buk launcher who destroyed the MH17 was operated by Russian specialists.
https://informnapalm.org/en/part-2-hacked/ …

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2016, 08:37 PM
GDP (nominal), 2015.

Russia: $1.2 trillion
California: $2.3 trillion

Azor
06-20-2016, 11:18 PM
Some light humor........
Wales 2 - Russia 0. In unrelated news Putin just deployed a battalion of troops into Llandudno

Careful Wales ; Putin has a habit of invading small countries that upset him -

WALRUS is now 3 to 0

Sources: Russian 'tourists' are departing for Wales already tonight. #EURO2016

What would Edward I say?

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 06:58 AM
What would Edward I say?

Laughing in his grave.......

After Russia loses 0-3 to Wales at #EURO2016:
"Those weren't our players. You can buy a uniform in any store."

Russian state TV on Russia-Wales: You can't even call it a deja-vu, because deja-vu happens once. This thing happens every other year.

Kom.Pravda looks for the silver lining at #EURO2016"The way we play football, it's clear to everyone Russians don't do doping"

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 07:19 AM
German SPD now in full tilt to Putin and Russia and doing it in the face of Merkel and the fact they are running right now in the polls at 29% and will barely make it in the next series of elections....

SPD leaders seem more interested in those 300,000 Euro per year Gazrom board salaries commonly called bribes and corruption in some legal circles......

Sigmar Gabriel, German vice chancellor and SPD chief, to visit Putin next week to discuss business as usual.
http://www.rp-online.de/politik/ausland/sigmar-gabriel-reist-zu-wladimir-putin-streit-um-russland-politik-aid-1.6063246 …
Sorry in German....

Germany’s Socialists, #Russia's Fascism & #Ukraine Deaths
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/germany-s-socialists-russia-s-fascism-and-ukrainian-deaths#.V2jS0jiFev4.twitter … …

BUT the ground reality is........

Krasohorivka, 20.06 - at night residential area was shelled by (pro)Russians with a tank, OSCE registered.

Enemy saboteurs attack Ukraine military near Avdiyivka
http://www.unian.info/war/1381157-enemy-saboteurs-attack-ukraine-military-near-avdiyivka.html …

Subversive group of 8 tried to get close to Ukr positions near Avdiivka, was repelled - ATO press center

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 07:25 AM
Another Russian troll calling himself "Ukraine news".
https://twitter.com/UkraineTopNews/status/745131942476058625 …

NATO fighters intercept Russian fighters Su-24 #fighter
http://goo.gl/wjP3wU

Russian Army TV: "The Baltic countries are afraid of "Russian threat" in case of withdrawal of Britain from the EU" https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/status/745134809970704384 …

Russian Ground Forces tank "lodgement" in occupied-Donbas 15 Jun,
https://new.vk.com/battalion_dizel?z=album-92512390_232530805 …

Russian tank and motor rifle troops combat exercises 15 Jun, occupied-Donbas
https://new.vk.com/battalion_dizel?z=album-92512390_232530805 …

Russian Forces of Occupation, Donbas, eastern Ukraine 4 June 2016
https://new.vk.com/battalion_dizel?z=photo-92512390_415469764%2Falbum-92512390_232530805 …

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 07:30 AM
Russia and her mercenaries are "partying" heavily again tonight......will catch up with the number of attacks in the morning.....

"Partying" is being held in the traditional favorite Russian locations.......

23:01 #Avdiivka - BMP and many small arms firing. #Promka
https://twitter.com/LuftGanza/status/744983629072371712 …

"Party results" from last night....

Combined Rus-militant forces fired 41 times upon Ukr troops over last day. Attacks intensified in the 2nd half of the day- ATO press center

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 07:33 AM
....the Cold War "Fulda Gap" is back again........

#NATO could have as little as 72 hours before #Russia blocks #SuwalkiGap | #BalticStates
http://www.wsj.com/articles/closing-the-gap-nato-moves-to-protect-weak-link-in-defenses-against-russia-1466205268 …

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 09:02 AM
When RT goes "Urgent" then you know something is seriously happening and it apparently is......

RT
✔ @RT_com URGENT: Explosion, heavy blaze at ammunition depot in S. Russia, hundreds evacuated
http://on.rt.com/7g2p

BUT at first it was reported as a fire in a building located on a landfill site....must have been a camouflaged site......then the reporting went urgent...

Will wait to see if further news drifts in on this fire.....

In Astrakhan region of Russia fire at missile engines warehouse
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2016/20-june-in-astrakhan-region-fire-at-missile-engines-warehouse …
pic.twitter.com/ZvuSwAUGgT


TASS
✔ @tassagency_en Rocket boosters on fire at military test site in south Russia — source
http://tass.ru/en/defense/883483 …

Brand und #Explosion auf dem russischen #Truppenübungsplatz Aschuluk:
https://informnapalm.org/de/brand-und-explosion-auf-dem-russischen-truppenuebungsplatz-aschuluk/ …
In German....

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 02:29 PM
Kirovohrad: Another #everydaycache discovered
http://goo.gl/dDIOmD

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 03:31 PM
New #Czech study shows #Russian propaganda is exploiting the migrant crisis to sow distrust towards the #EU.
http://goo.gl/qzofGg

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 04:17 PM
Archives show #Stalin was ready to give Hitler #Ukraine and the #Baltics:
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/20/archives-show-stalin-was-ready-to-give-hitler-ukraine-and-the-baltics-euromaidan-press/ …

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 04:19 PM
http://fw.to/Eg1kXKQ

Ukraine Sees Crimean Move as Russian Ploy

A Crimean independence movement has replaced the Black Sea Fleet as the flashpoint in Russia-Ukraine dispute

By Chrystyna Lapychak, Special to The Christian Science Monitor May 26, 1992


SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE — THE Cafe Bagram in the Crimean capital is named after one of the fiercest battlegrounds of the Afghan war, and many of the men who gather here are veterans of that lost Soviet cause. Now the afghantsi, as the veterans are called, have turned the cafe into the informal headquarters for another crusade - Crimean independence.

Men such as Viktor Mezhak, a member of the local Crimean parliament, are the activist core of the Republic Movement of Crimea (RMC), which has emerged as a powerful political force in this semi-tropical peninsula in the Black Sea. They forced the Crimean parliament to adopt a declaration of independence from Ukraine on May 5, to be confirmed by a popular referendum Aug. 2.

For the Movement and its backers, this is a case of resistance to Ukrainian nationalism. They accuse the "nationalist-communist" government in Kiev of discriminating against the predominantly Russian-speaking population by replacing Russian television and radio programs with Ukrainian ones and by sending official documents written only in the Ukrainian language.

"We don't want nationalism here," parliament deputy Mezhak says over coffee at the Cafe Bagram, which is owned by by the movement's main backers, the Crimean firm IMPEX 55.

But for Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk and his allies in the Rukh nationalist movement the RMC is merely the front wedge of a Russian effort to reclaim Crimea as Russian territory. At the head of that drive is Russian Vice President Alexander Rutskoi, himself an Afghan war hero, they say. In a clear reference to Mr. Rutskoi, Mr. Kravchuk accuses the RMC of being backed politically and financially by "certain forces at the highest level in the Russian leadership who view Ukraine as a vassal state." Trigger on commonwealth

The conflict over Crimea has now supplanted the earlier battle between Russia and Ukraine over the division of the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet, which is largely based in the Crimean port of Sebastopol. The issue now may be the trigger for a Ukrainian decision to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States, created after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some say a battle over Crimea could become a far larger and more dangerous version of the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia.

The confrontation reached a new height last week when the Russian parliament voted to annul a 1954 act of the Soviet government to transfer Crimea from the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Kravchuk immediately condemned the move by the Russian legislature as "a violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity" and of agreements between the new countries on mutual respect of existing borders.

Ukrainian officials and leaders of a moderate faction in the Crimean parliament opposed to secession have warned in recent weeks that the political consequences of repealing the 1954 Act could provoke more regions in the new states to break away and could hasten Ukraine's departure from the commonwealth.

"Such a move in support of Crimean independence will cause a domino affect on the territory of the former USSR," stressed Volodymyr Hryniov, a deputy chairman of Ukraine's parliament during a stormy May 13th session.

"This could threaten political and economic reforms in Russia, as well as in Ukraine," cautioned Yuri Komov, leader of the so-called Democratic Fraction in the Crimean Supreme Soviet last week here in the Crimean capital.

The Russian parliament's decision follows a succession of events. After the May 5 Crimean parliament declaration of independence, the Ukrainian parliament annulled the decision, giving the Crimean legislature until May 20 to revoke it. After two days of tense debate, the Crimean Supreme Soviet, as the parliament is called, reversed its decision.

But that is unlikely to end the crisis. The separatist movement, which gathered 250,000 signatures for a referendum, draws strength in part from the hope of many residents that independence will somehow solve the economic woes they share with the rest of the former Soviet Union. And it has gathered support in the parliament from frustrations over a recent Ukrainian law which granted very limited powers of self-rule to the Crimean autonomous region.

"If Kravchuk had followed through on his campaign promises of a federal system for Ukraine, all of this could have been avoided," insisted moderate deputy Komov during a break in the stormy May 20 session, as militant protesters waving Russian and RMC flags chanted "down with the fascists" outside the Crimean parliament building in downtown Simferopol.

Russians form 60 percent of the 2.5 million people on this picturesque peninsula, which Catherine the Great annexed to Russia in the 18th century.

Best known for its natural beauty and seaside resorts such as the famous Yalta, Crimea used to be home to hundreds of thousands of Crimean Tatars, a Muslim people most of whom were forcibly exiled by Joseph Stalin in 1944. Many are now moving back to find that their old homes and land have been taken by Russians and Ukrainians who have dotted the coastline with dachas and retirement homes.

The headquarters of the Crimean Tatar movement, the Mejlis, is located in a dingy office building across town from the Cafe Bagram. The Tatars do not formally recognize the current Crimean parliament as representing their interests in the region. Their goal, which is supported by the influential Rukh movement in Kiev, is an autonomous Tatar republic within Ukraine.

While the RMC asserts that its referendum campaign only aims to support Crimeans "who want to be masters of their own destiny," its leaders do not conceal their hope that the region will eventually join Russia. Mezhak said their aim was to "make Crimea the region that will reunite the Slavic states into a union." Russian agenda

"They have managed to fool a lot of people," Crimean democrat Komov says about the RMC. "Crimea is not exactly a politically sophisticated region.... People are confused and frustrated with economic difficulties, high prices. The RMC has filled a political vacuum as a powerful and wealthy alternative to the former Communist apparatchiks still in power here. They are playing on peoples' fears of nationalism and now many believe that independence will solve all their problems. But beneath all of this, the RMC really wants reunification with Russia," Komov concluded.

Komov sees tensions increasing, but says hopefully: "I believe ... we can still prevent Crimea from becoming another Nagorno-Karabakh or Yugoslavia."

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 04:29 PM
Russian troops and her mercenaries started their nightly partying early this evening....18:15 and they were off and running....

18:50 #Donetsk @vladimi71543390 damn, I can hear salvos, far off, for 20 min... at #Kalininskyi

19:22 #Avdiivka #Promka @untrikoy 'Party' for already 30 min...

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 04:32 PM
Kremlin #trolls are engaged in massive anti-#Ukrainian #propaganda in #Poland
http://ln.is/www.stopfake.org/en/CEqUt …

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 05:23 PM
DPR leader says republic to set election date if Ukraine fails to do it http://tass.ru/en/world/883796

DPR leader cannot seem to realize he cannot call elections otherwise he is in full and complete violation of Minsk 2 and the sanctions stay in place for a while longer.....

Besides Russian and he has not fulfilled a single point of Minsk 2 in order for elections to be even held.....

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 05:26 PM
Fighter of 72th UA Mechanized Brigade got the new rank;)
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1063046323765808&id=100001813520333 …

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 05:32 PM
Russia won't let #US join the Normandy doormat,er, format? #BudapestMemorandum is the only format, period.

Fontanka Links Putin's Chef, Wagner Military Contractor to Attacks on Reporters, Activists
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-june-21-2016/#14283 …

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 05:51 PM
https://maidantranslations.com/2016/06/21/dmitry-tymchuk-military-update-06-17-letmypeoplego/

Dmitry Tymchuk: Military update 06.17

Posted on June 21, 2016


Operational data from Information Resistance:

During the past 24 hours, most of the shellings and armed provocations by Russian-terrorist troops were recorded in the coastal direction of operations and south of Donetsk. Militant activity was also observed to the west and northwest of Donetsk, as well as in the area of the Svitlodarsk salient.

In particular, in the area of Avdiivka and adjacent areas (from Opytne to Troitske), we observed the traditionally continuous shelling of the ATO forces’ advanced strongholds and observation posts, with the use of small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. Sporadic 122 mm artillery strikes came near Butivka and the Tsarska Ohota [restaurant]; militant shelling from 82 mm mortars was also observed around the “industrial zone.”

June: Avdiivka. In the trenches of the "industrial zone" with a soldier of the Special Purpose Regiment "Kyiv," a new unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
June: Avdiivka. In the trenches of the “industrial zone” with a soldier of the Special Purpose Regiment “Kyiv,” a new unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In the Mar’inka area, there was intense shelling from small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. Along the Zaitseve–Zhovanka stretch, terrorists used heavy machine guns and SPG-9M’s from the direction of Holmivskyi and Rybalka Street. Near Krasnohorivka, militants used a BBM [armored fighting vehicle] and anti-aircraft cannons.

Near Staromykhailivka and further south (in the Zhilploschadka estate), a terrorist tank unit (4 tanks) is in operation. Aimed fire from tank guns was recorded against a stronghold near Krasnohorivka; as were at least two tanks that traveled towards Staromykhailivka from the south.

Russian-terrorist troop formations have not abandoned their attempts to “push” the ATO forces’ units out away from Dokuchajevsk. Operating in this area is a militant artillery group previously transferred here (a division consisting of three batteries); other armaments are also used for shelling. During the past 24 hours, a terrorist fire group with a ZU-23-2 maneuvered between the village of Yasne and the northern neighborhood of Dokuchajevsk, constantly changing positions to shell the ATO forces’ strongholds near Berezove and south-east of that settlement (three times). The group’s operation took place under covering fire from grenade launchers (SPG-9M’s and AGS-17’s). Additionally, militants fired 120 mm mortars from the “black waste mound” (Tsentralnyy Karyer mounds), aiming at Ukrainian troop positions southwest of Dokuchajevsk and then shifting their fire onto the Mariupol–Donetsk highway and beyond.

On the Svitlodarsk salient, a pair of militant BMP-2’s [infantry fighting vehicles], operating from the direction of Nyzhnje Lozove, shelled the ATO forces’ advanced positions southeast of Luhanske, operating under covering fire from 82 mm mortars. After fire was returned by the ATO forces, the BMP’s returned to their starting lines. Later, the ATO forces’ strongholds south of Svitlodarsk came under fire from 120 mm mortars. East of Novozvanivka, a terrorist fire group slipped into the “greenery” and opened sudden fire from small arms and RPG’s; after its fire was returned, the group retreated behind militant lines under the cover of 82 mm and 120 mm mortars.

Terrorist heavy armor was spotted in the Panteleimonivka and Yasynivka areas, a total of 14 vehicles, camouflaged and dug in, in a “scattered” formation. Additionally, six enemy tank positions were noted in the latter location.

North of Telmanove, a militant D30\D30A howitzer battery (five guns) was spotted on the march; the convoy also included two BTR’s and one MT-LB.

“DNR” and “LNR” media have received instructions from Moscow to start trumpeting the theme of “Russian peacekeepers,” who are supposed to intercede “between the hostile parties” to stop the shelling. As is known, a similar scenario was used in Transnistria and Georgia, after which the Russian “peacekeepers” became an active party to the conflict.

Between 06.20 and 06.24.2016 “DNR” militants plan to deploy two mobile military hospitals with suitable equipment and staff near Bezimenne, Novoazovskiy district. Rumors are circulating through militant units stationed in the area that an offensive is planned by their own side along the Shyrokyne–Hnutove–Pavlopil line, in late June.

After returning to the “DNR” as a result of prisoner exchanges, liberated militants are placed under close control of “DNR MGB” agencies, with all their contacts photographed and filmed (by “MGB’s” external surveillance groups). The liberated militants are prohibited from contacting other terrorists who have also returned from captivity, which causes indignation among them.

The “DNR” military leadership is considering implementing “supplementary mobilization measures” in occupied districts of Donetsk oblast. The measures will serve primarily to replenish terrorist formations deployed in the Avdiivka area.

According to the “DNR MGB” quota, employees of “DNR police agencies” (officer corps) must book at least two criminal proceedings each month. “Police” workers who fail to meet this target are subject to an official reprimand, and informed that should they continue failing to meet the “target,” they will be transferred to the “front line” for one month.

Two “motorized rifle brigades” of the “2nd LNR AC” are undergoing military exercises with a strong focus on offensive actions, including the breaching of water obstacles.

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2016, 06:27 PM
Translation of @askai707's outstanding research into a Russian brigade's activities in the Donbass on @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2016/06/21/russias-200th-motorized-infantry-brigade-in-the-donbass-part-2/ …

RPG-18s, hand grenades, projected grenades, mine, and ammo seized in Ukraine
https://ssu.gov.ua/ua/news/1/category/21/view/1248 …

Putin's troll factory linked to a merc squad fighting for Russia in Syria & Ukraine:
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-june-21-2016/#14283 …

Footage of #Avdiivka's #Promka @GirkinGirkin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF5l9-Kj1n0&feature=youtu.be …

ATO spox: Yesterday, 2 UA servicemen were killed in action, 5 UA soldiers were wounded in action

Azor
06-21-2016, 09:10 PM
According to Wikipedia's page on the Donbas Conflict (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass), some 2,100 (pro)Russian insurgents have been killed, compared to 3,300 Ukrainians (paramilitary and regular military).

The source for the number of insurgent fatalities is the "Cargo 200" NGO, which collects data on the eponymous Cargo 200, and published a list in March of 2,100 Russian citizens killed fighting in Ukraine on behalf of the DNR/LPR. Unfortunately, this NGO does not even have a webpage and the original published document is only available from NewsWeek and UA Today.

There are also estimates of 2,200 (pro)Russian fatalities, however, this was merely the Cargo 200 figure added to DNR claims of 90 fighters lost in March-April 2016 (Foreign Policy (http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/12/ukraines-meat-grinder-is-back-in-business/)). In addition, the Cargo 200 figure built upon self-reported DNR/LPR claims from 2015...

According to the US State Department, 400-500 soldiers from the Russian Armed Forces were killed in Donbas fighting on behalf of the DNR/LPR, however, this estimate was from March 2015.

The Ukrainian fatality statistics are derived from official figures and NGOs.

It is clear that the Russian government and its proxies, as well as the Ukrainian government, have been keen to exaggerate their toll on the enemy and under-report their true casualties.

Are there any credible sources as to:


Ukrainian fatalities in Donbas (paramilitary, military or both)
Russian Armed Forces fatalities (regular and special forces)
Insurgent fatalities (Ukrainian citizens who are not members of the Russian military)
Russian "volunteer" fatalities (Russian citizens who are not members of the Russian military but are nevertheless fighting in Donbas)

Azor
06-22-2016, 03:24 AM
See their blurb here (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kWjevlbawdQ)

If you don't watch it for its insights, watch it for Lynn and Lauren. I'm sorry Outlaw, but I'd sooner talk this Russia business out with them ;)

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 05:38 AM
According to Wikipedia's page on the Donbas Conflict (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass), some 2,100 (pro)Russian insurgents have been killed, compared to 3,300 Ukrainians (paramilitary and regular military).

The source for the number of insurgent fatalities is the "Cargo 200" NGO, which collects data on the eponymous Cargo 200, and published a list in March of 2,100 Russian citizens killed fighting in Ukraine on behalf of the DNR/LPR. Unfortunately, this NGO does not even have a webpage and the original published document is only available from NewsWeek and UA Today.

There are also estimates of 2,200 (pro)Russian fatalities, however, this was merely the Cargo 200 figure added to DNR claims of 90 fighters lost in March-April 2016 (Foreign Policy (http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/12/ukraines-meat-grinder-is-back-in-business/)). In addition, the Cargo 200 figure built upon self-reported DNR/LPR claims from 2015...

According to the US State Department, 400-500 soldiers from the Russian Armed Forces were killed in Donbas fighting on behalf of the DNR/LPR, however, this estimate was from March 2015.

The Ukrainian fatality statistics are derived from official figures and NGOs.

It is clear that the Russian government and its proxies, as well as the Ukrainian government, have been keen to exaggerate their toll on the enemy and under-report their true casualties.

Are there any credible sources as to:


Ukrainian fatalities in Donbas (paramilitary, military or both)
Russian Armed Forces fatalities (regular and special forces)
Insurgent fatalities (Ukrainian citizens who are not members of the Russian military)
Russian "volunteer" fatalities (Russian citizens who are not members of the Russian military but are nevertheless fighting in Donbas)


Azor.....gave up long ago on trying to guess/estimate the numbers but one thing is very clear the Russian troop and mercenaries numbers are far higher than they would like them to be.

I initially back in 2014 through 2015 used the social media reporting on the number of graveyards that the mercenaries had opened and are still filling daily....those alone were in the 2500 plus not counting a large number of unregistered graves scattered across eastern Ukraine on both sides.

A very good open source social media analyst has been using Google Earth to actually track the Russian 2014 invasion step by step and has found a number of UAF hasty grave sites in the last few weeks.

One thing that many do not pay attention to is that the Cargo 200 shipments pertain mainly to Russian troops and Russian mercenaries from Russia not Donbas who are buried inside eastern Ukraine and the figure of 2500 in graveyards comes from the early eastern Ukrainian mercenary loses and a lot of Russian mercenaries because the Cargo 200 shipments started long after the initial invasion as the Russian military took their loses with them to camouflage their actual loses.

The problem with UAF loss numbers are that they still do and did not report those loses of the so called "volunteer units" that carried the heavy fighting the first year and still hold several critical positions on the front line.

What is interesting is that lately the UAF Intel Division has been very good at providing mercenary and Russian troop loses even with names.....as if they are sitting the Russian MoD info channel.

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 05:59 AM
Russian troops and her mercenaries started their nightly partying early this evening....18:15 and they were off and running....

18:50 #Donetsk @vladimi71543390 damn, I can hear salvos, far off, for 20 min... at #Kalininskyi

19:22 #Avdiivka #Promka @untrikoy 'Party' for already 30 min...

BreakingReports from the spot:
Heavy Russian artillery in #Horlivka pounds Ukrainian positions.
No return fire by #Ukraine so far.

Low party numbers last night but they partied at the normal "hot spots" and intensively ....

about 02:50 a.m. #Donetsk #Petrovka @666_mancer
https://vimeo.com/171698430

03:03 #Donetsk @666_mancer
https://vimeo.com/171699079

Sorry.....the party is back on now this morning...might be a rather long day of parties.....

06:00 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] since 4am AGLs are pretty frequent, and now it's booming

Combined Rus-militant troops fired 28 times upon Ukr troops over last day. Most tense is in the Donetsk, Mariupol sectors - ATO press center

Zmiina_Hora hill in background, #Stanytsia_Luhanska is shelled all the time fr/there
pic.twitter.com/YJpjMbKdst
https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 07:03 AM
Russia and her mercenaries demand elections in a Russian occupied Ukrainian zone......but seem to forget this.......

"10-12K #OSCE policemen needed to hold elections in occupied Donbas".
Q. There were no elections in Germany till 1949, why?

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 07:09 AM
Russian Propagandists Hacked. Part 3. The Shelling of Nikishyne:
https://informnapalm.org/en/part-3-hacked/ …

Rus-backed militants reinforce positions at Primorsky sector (Mariupol area), brought 12 tanks nr Bezymenne -Tymchuk https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/899072603554729 …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 07:12 AM
Azor...confirms again what I have been saying....
http://uawire.org/news/us-assistant-secretary-of-state-our-patience-with-russia-is-not-endless

US Assistant Secretary of State: Our patience with Russia is not endless

Tuesday, June 21, 2016 5:19:20 PM


Russia has violated an important agreement with the United States, signed back in the years of the Cold War. That is why Washington, in addition to diplomatic measures, reserves the right to respond with military action as well, said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Frank A. Rose.

At the same time, he said that NATO's anti-missile defense system designed to combat threats emanating from beyond the Euro-Atlantic space cannot threaten Russian ballistic missile capacity.

"I can say that Russia has actually created and deployed such systems as the SS-27 "Topol-M" and SS-18 "Satan" ballistic missiles, and our missile defense simply cannot threaten these Russian systems...Russia utilizes different ballistic missile systems, and it will be very difficult for us to cope with them," he said in an interview with Delfi.

Rose also stated that to date there are several challenges associated with Russia. "The good news is that the implementation of a new agreement between Russia and the United States on the reduction of strategic weapons is moving forward so far - bilateral inspections are being conducted, information is being shared, and this allows us to maintain the strategic balance between the two countries. But things are not so good when it comes to Russia’s manageability on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Even in 2014, the U.S.A. stated that Russia did not comply with its obligations not to test-launch land ballistic or cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 km. It was not easy to admit it publicly, although very influential diplomats called on the Russians to admit to the violations and fulfill their obligations. Unfortunately, the diplomacy was ineffective. This does not mean that we ran out of diplomatic measures. We continue to hold a dialogue with Russia through diplomatic channels and experts, but to no avail," complained the Assistant Secretary of State.

Rose has stressed that the U.S.A.’s priority is "diplomacy, the desire to make Russia comply with their obligations and provide an opportunity to monitor this compliance."

"The INF Treaty is an agreement not only between Russia and the USA - it is the heart of Euro-Atlantic security. I have spent a lot of time working with our allies, trying to give them the latest information about breaches of the treaty by Russia. There is another possible response: though the U.S.A. has not yet decided on the exact measures of this response, Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Brian P. McKeon, has already mentioned the possibility of military action. We made it clear to Russia that diplomacy is our priority, but we will not allow them to use it against the United States... I just want to say that our patience is not infinite. Whatever we undertake, we will do it only after consultations with the allies."


BUT WAIT:

Russia preparing for future confrontation with Western powers – Ukraine Intel
http://www.unian.info/politics/1382595-russia-preparing-for-future-confrontation-with-western-powers-ukraine-intel.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 07:54 AM
"Russian strategy is undergoing a major shift in focus: Russia’s war machine is pivoting from the South to the West" http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45512&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=47fd4952a19dfcc76a098b2561a179b9#.V2pCZ7iLSh e …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 12:03 PM
Azor.....

Russia's plan: "escalate to deescalate": Russia’s Growing Strategic Nuclear Forces and New START Treaty Compliance http://www.nipp.org/2016/06/21/schneider-mark-russias-growing-strategic-nuclear-forces-and-new-start-treaty-compliance/ …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 12:14 PM
Russia launches new 'separatist' information attack - Ukrainian media plays along. Incompetence or collaboration?
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1466558699 …

Russian FSB tries to recruit Ukrainian diplomat in Moscow
http://www.unian.info/society/1382773-russian-fsb-tries-to-recruit-ukrainian-diplomat-in-moscow.html …

DNR leaders "vodka moment".......
Zaharchenko: DNR wants own representative in Rada
pic.twitter.com/MHNXzMdmu8
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/22-june-zaharchenko-dnr-wants-own-representative-in-rada …
So he can vote against NATO and EU but wait without an amnesty he could be charged with treason and murder.....BUT again that would require Russia implementing fully the entire 11 point Minsk 2.....
PLUS there is nothing in any Minsk 2 about DNR being in the Rada......

Russia supplies to Donbas MON-50, PMN-2 landmines forbidden by Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention (Ottawa Treaty)

HybridWar theory states that “modern #wars are no longer declared…”. Read on:
http://empr.media/opinion/analytics/hybrid-war-theory-unfolding-limits-gerasimov-doctrine/ …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 02:59 PM
German "business as usual" and yet they want to lead the EU....question is exactly where do they want to lead Europe.....

Germany #MercedesBenz signs agreement on plant in the #Moscow area
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/351888.html …

So much for sanctions....and they could not have built it closer say in Ukraine which also has low salaries and is closer to MB main production centers....

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 03:01 PM
More confrontational rhetoric from Moscow: Putin Says Russia Must Respond To 'Aggressive' Western Actions, Rhetoric
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-putin-duma-plenary-agressive-western-actions/27813321.html …

Somehow Putin does not believe his actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine has caused the problem.......:confused:

Moscow says Netflix is the US govt’s plot to ‘get into the head of every person on Earth’
https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/06/22/russia-s-culture-minister-says-netflix-is-the-us-government-s-plot-to-get-into-the-head-of-every-person-on-earth …

Ukraine Security Service expels Russian JCCC officer from Ukraine
http://www.unian.info/politics/1383355-ukraine-security-service-expels-russian-jccc-officer-from-ukraine.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 03:54 PM
UAF anticipating a massive increase in the Russian troop and her mercenary "parties" in the coming hours and days....these "parties" are reaching a full scale major ground offensive by the Russians as they have moved troops and heavy tanks and artillery up to literally the edge of the Minsk 2 front line......

Ukraine redeploying volunteers to the front lines. War In Europe
https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/status/745627115626860544 …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 04:32 PM
Looks like all the Russian lying on their not being involved in the BUK shot down of MH17 is over and put to rest.......Putin and his FM and all their trolls basically outright lied.........

Eliot Higgins ‏@EliotHiggins · 16m16 minutes ago
Google Earth just updated with #MH17 imagery, including the July 17th image of Donetsk with the Buk in it.

New Google Earth Satellite Update Confirms Presence of Buk in Eastern Ukraine

June 22, 2016

By Bellingcat


Today, Google Earth updated its historical satellite imagery to include Donetsk and Makiivka at 11:08am (local time) on July 17, 2014, the day of the downing of Flight MH17. Bellingcat has previously purchased portions of this image, with the Digital Globe catalog ID of 105041001104D000, to show that the Russian Ministry of Defense had doctored its MH17 evidence, and to search for the Buk on the H21 highway between Donetsk and Torez. Unfortunately, we did not purchase the segment of the image that showed the Buk and the Volvo truck hauling it, as the convoy took a south-bound detour through Makiivka before re-entering H21. With the new imagery update, we now have confirmation of the authenticity of a recent dash-cam video showing the Buk and its convoy in Makiivka.

A portion of this satellite image was previously published by the U.S.-based private intelligence company Stratfor, which focused on the Buk and the Volvo truck hauling it.


Naturally Putin and his FM will deny there is even a satellite with photo abilities and they will deny the existence of even Google Earth.....but if Google can drive cars using their imagery they can produce photos from their satellite....

Google Earth now has July 17th 2014 image that shows #MH17 BUK on loader near Makiivka.
https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/745649072317554688 …

AND it is not an Ukrainian loader........nor Ukrainian BUK......

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 04:50 PM
Jun20 #Krasnohorivka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoYcVspNzcE&feature=youtu.be …

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 05:02 PM
See their blurb here (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kWjevlbawdQ)

If you don't watch it for its insights, watch it for Lynn and Lauren. I'm sorry Outlaw, but I'd sooner talk this Russia business out with them ;)

Watched the video and there was a number of interesting items that they covered that social media has been already covering...
1. the Russian banking figures do not add up for their foreign currency reserves ie although they are buying gold like crazy....their gold reserves show a drop of over 10B from the last report instead of being up....
2. the two funds they are referring to are well below what the government claims is in them
3. closed banks due to dead beat loans and corruption are scheduled to hit around 200 this year

And lastly at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum this last week ...the Serbbank President publicly called on Putin to end the "Donbas story" as the economy is tanking faster than Putin fully realizes........

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 05:08 PM
Third Russian JCCC member sent back to Russia due to spying.....

Ukraine deports Russian colonel w/ Joint Ceasefire Center. For spying. Others r just law-abiding ‘rebels’

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2016, 05:11 PM
UAF anticipating a massive increase in the Russian troop and her mercenary "parties" in the coming hours and days....these "parties" are reaching a full scale major ground offensive by the Russians as they have moved troops and heavy tanks and artillery up to literally the edge of the Minsk 2 front line......

Ukraine redeploying volunteers to the front lines. War In Europe
The AZOV and Donbass battalions are being sent back to the front in #Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/status/745627115626860544 …

19:34 #Novhorodske @subwayriwer First heavy booms to the left from #Horlivka

19:44 #Avdiivka old part [=S/SE] @Cryion1 since 19:20 landings are heard fr/the area of broken bridge on #Kostyantynivka route or further W

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 06:56 AM
19:34 #Novhorodske @subwayriwer First heavy booms to the left from #Horlivka

19:44 #Avdiivka old part [=S/SE] @Cryion1 since 19:20 landings are heard fr/the area of broken bridge on #Kostyantynivka route or further W

Single report of MLRS fired from #Makeevka last night:
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/745868854463705088 …

Makiivka #Gvardeyka @666_mancer [krokha] "Overnight, few times MLRS fired from close positions, but far landings in 8-9 sec"

[vk] @666_mancer
#Krasnohorivka
03:25 AR burst, quiet
05:50 quiet
#Marinka
05:03 Booms and skirmishes for already an hour
06:25 quiet

Ukraine says it has sent two battle-hardened volunteer militias - Azov, Donbass battalions - back to the front because of intense fighting

Shelling in #Avdeevka was heavy last night, civilian was wounded. Ukraine troops used mortars to strike back on pro Russian firing positions

46 pro Russian attacks yesterday, mortars and artillery used. Residential areas were hit in #Avdiivka, #Popasn and #Vodyane.

Mariupol heard sound of fighting last evening as pro Russians shelled #Talakivka, #Shyrokyne and #Vodyane
http://www.0629.com.ua/news/1270622

Party is on again...now...
08:11 #Volnovakha @IVolnovakha Strong booms, #Novotroitske direction

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 06:57 AM
Reference Russian shot down of MH17.......

Bellingcat publishes new photos of Russian Buk on day of MH17 downing
http://www.unian.info/war/1383755-bellingcat-publishes-new-photos-of-russian-buk-on-day-of-mh17-downing.html …

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 06:58 AM
Beautiful "vodka moments from yesterday".........

U.S. Controls Minds Through Netflix - Culture Minister | News | The Moscow Times
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/us-controls-minds-through-netflix---culture-minister/573267.html …

... Russian TV lost the last shores of sanity: Hitler's Germany = NATO
Video link
http://apostrophe.com.ua/news/society/media/2016-06-23/sravnenie-nato-s-tretim-reyhom-na-rostv-vyizvalo-bum-v-seti-opublikovano-video/63140 …

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 07:13 AM
OSCE Patrol hit by "pro" russian mortar shelling in Ukraine government controlled territory Vodiane
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/248141 …

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 07:49 AM
Reference Russian shot down of MH17.......

Bellingcat publishes new photos of Russian Buk on day of MH17 downing
http://www.unian.info/war/1383755-bellingcat-publishes-new-photos-of-russian-buk-on-day-of-mh17-downing.html …

AND as anticipated the Russian disinformation starts early today.....

"Ok, we grant you this, but how did GOOGLE know BUK was going to shoot down #MH17? Why else did it take a photo?" https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/745883002232840193 …

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 11:40 AM
The Ukrainian army #Donbas war casualty figure for 2016 passed 700 tonight (KIA+WIA).
1 killed, 11 injured yesterday.

UKR Mission to OSCE ‏@UKRinOSCE
#Prokopchuk: We reiteraite our call on @RF_OSCE 2explain how Rus R330ZH Zhitel, again spotted by @OSCE_SMM last week, emerged in #Donbas

Zhitel is strictly Russia military used equipment and has never been exported/shipped outside Russia.....

When Russian signed the Minsk Agreements, it agreed to restore control of Ukraine's intl border to the Ukrainian gov

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 12:23 PM
Azor.......

Russia seen putting new nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad by 2019
http://reut.rs/28QOvJK

Four myths of Donbas conflict dissected: language, identity, religion and nationalism
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2016-06-21/ukraines-fog-war …
by @TarasKuzio

Use this chart the next time someone mentions "US troops encircling Russia."
http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/16101_-_kane_-_decline_of_american_engagement.pdf …

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 12:34 PM
Large cache of weapons and ammo found in #Zaporizhia.
https://twitter.com/vitaliy00700/status/745941175308288000 …

58th Russian "humanitarian" convoy was half empty, illegally crossed into Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/zn_ua/status/745892908876828672 …

ATO spox:Russian JCCC rep was giving info on @OSCE_SMM drones, fakes abt UA Army to militants. SBU banned from entering the country for 5yrs

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 01:08 PM
Ukraine Seeks Radars, Anti-Drone Weapons
http://defnews.ly/28P5X0N via @Defense_News

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 01:19 PM
How #Russia used #Orthodox fundamentalism to hijack the Church Council in Crete:
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/20/how-russia-used-orthodox-fundamentalism-to-hijack-the-church-council-in-crete/ …

Russian non linear warfare also includes the ROC........which BTW ROC called for a jihadi in Syria when Putin went into Syria....

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 01:22 PM
Top Kremlin propagandist Kiselev: "Propaganda is just a way to explain something, just presenting an opinion". https://twitter.com/bbcukrainian/status/745962004943409152 …

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2016, 07:05 PM
OSCE SMM states the Minsk ceasefire is broken 8000 times a week lately.....
in German
@OSCE_SMM A. Hug: Die Waffenruhe im Donbas bricht 8000 Mal pro Woche

http://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/ukraine-konflikt/osze-interview-46430456.bild.html …

Russian party has started......

21:22 #Avdiivka @VadyXaXa it is loud as hell

21:32 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 [UA reply for 2 min]

21:33 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza [UAF artillery is shelling]

21:29 #Horlivka #Rtutnyi @tetznka the evening becomes not languorous anymore...

21:30 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#Shakhtarska Sq: far booms
#Kalininskyi, #Druzhba: w/open windows one can hear far dull salvos

21:30 NW #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ 15 min ago, there were landings on delimitation line, #mine6-7's outskirts. Battle goes on more than 30 min

21:31 #Donetsk @_Pushistiy_ Mortar shells land. Each 5-10 sec

21:32 #Donetsk @MitAndersen Heavy weapons continue to pound and landings on #Donetsk north outskirts. The evening seems to be cheerful

21:40 Shelling in #Talakivka area.

June 13, Donbas, Ukrainian positions under the shelling of Russians...
via @SWISSUKRAINE
https://youtu.be/vUqz7fSmkkk

21:48 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#Marabushta: dull booms
#Gladkovka: one can hear salvos, heavy, frequent since 18:30. Far but unpleasant

Marinka @666_mancer [vk]
18:41 quiet
20:33 a boom
20:59 sporadic shots
21:32 booms, shooting

Azor
06-24-2016, 05:32 AM
The drama over American accusations of Russian INFT violations since 2011 is very interesting...

Over time, we have come to learn that the violations surround Russian testing of the new RS-26 ICBM and R-500 GLCM:


The RS-26 was initially tested as an ICBM, but subsequent testing at intermediate ranges and with MARVs typical of the pre-INFT IRBMs have raised suspicions that its intended deployment is at intermediate ranges. However, the INFT does not prohibit the parties from using ICBMs for shorter ranges, and Russia is accounting for the RS-26 under New START.

The R-500 appears to be an evolved ground-launched variant of MKB Raduga's KH-55 ALCM, which also inspired the RK-55 GLCM later banned under the INFT. Although apparently tested at a range of more than 2,000 km (as with the ALCM), the Russians claim that the R-500 is actually limited to 500 km per the INFT.

The real concern is whether the Iskander, which is capable of launching nuclear SRBMs, will be able to launch nuclear IRBMs.


For Russia's part, it has announced dissatisfaction with the INFT as early as 2007, due primarily to Chinese missile developments.

The delay and then gradual approach to American censure of Russian INFT violations was apparently due to the length of time it took to determine that the cruise missile being tested was a dedicated GLCM, rather than an ALCM or SLCM which are obviously not covered in the treaty.

Yet we see US officials conflating issues and indeed treaties. Frank Rose provides no detail as to Russia's INFT violations, but then discusses how Aegis Ashore is no threat to Russia's ICBMs. The deployment of Iskanders to Kaliningrad frequently are discussed in the context of the ABM Treaty (which the US withdrew from) and the INFT, which in fact does not cover SRBMs.

If Russia is violating the INFT, it may in fact benefit the United States:


If Russia abrogates the INFT first, the US can follow suit without blame and then develop weapons to counter China

Russian violations pose a threat to NATO, however, there are far less US assets at risk in Europe than in 1987. The risk is overwhelmingly to non-US NATO forces

Further Russian development and expansion of their ALCM and SLCM arsenal would be much more threatening to the US and indicate a more offensive or expeditionary intent. In contrast, GLCM and IRBMs are constrained by range and more associated with a defensive approach

The US is developing both a new dual-capable ALCM and a LRASM. These systems have commonalities and it can be safely assumed that there is a new dual-capable SLCM in the works...

From my perspective, the INFT was about the Soviets eliminating a disruptive American capability, rather than eliminating two equivalent threats

The other nuclear powers need to be brought into new multilateral nuclear warhead and delivery system agreements, or else New START and the INFT will become obsolete

China is Russia's primary threat, and GLCMs are an efficient way to provide A2/AD exclusion over Siberia, given the impossibility of naval support and the difficulties of ALCM-carrier coverage

OUTLAW 09
06-24-2016, 07:20 AM
The drama over American accusations of Russian INFT violations since 2011 is very interesting...

Over time, we have come to learn that the violations surround Russian testing of the new RS-26 ICBM and R-500 GLCM:


The RS-26 was initially tested as an ICBM, but subsequent testing at intermediate ranges and with MARVs typical of the pre-INFT IRBMs have raised suspicions that its intended deployment is at intermediate ranges. However, the INFT does not prohibit the parties from using ICBMs for shorter ranges, and Russia is accounting for the RS-26 under New START.

The R-500 appears to be an evolved ground-launched variant of MKB Raduga's KH-55 ALCM, which also inspired the RK-55 GLCM later banned under the INFT. Although apparently tested at a range of more than 2,000 km (as with the ALCM), the Russians claim that the R-500 is actually limited to 500 km per the INFT.

The real concern is whether the Iskander, which is capable of launching nuclear SRBMs, will be able to launch nuclear IRBMs.


For Russia's part, it has announced dissatisfaction with the INFT as early as 2007, due primarily to Chinese missile developments.

The delay and then gradual approach to American censure of Russian INFT violations was apparently due to the length of time it took to determine that the cruise missile being tested was a dedicated GLCM, rather than an ALCM or SLCM which are obviously not covered in the treaty.

Yet we see US officials conflating issues and indeed treaties. Frank Rose provides no detail as to Russia's INFT violations, but then discusses how Aegis Ashore is no threat to Russia's ICBMs. The deployment of Iskanders to Kaliningrad frequently are discussed in the context of the ABM Treaty (which the US withdrew from) and the INFT, which in fact does not cover SRBMs.

If Russia is violating the INFT, it may in fact benefit the United States:


If Russia abrogates the INFT first, the US can follow suit without blame and then develop weapons to counter China

Russian violations pose a threat to NATO, however, there are far less US assets at risk in Europe than in 1987. The risk is overwhelmingly to non-US NATO forces

Further Russian development and expansion of their ALCM and SLCM arsenal would be much more threatening to the US and indicate a more offensive or expeditionary intent. In contrast, GLCM and IRBMs are constrained by range and more associated with a defensive approach

The US is developing both a new dual-capable ALCM and a LRASM. These systems have commonalities and it can be safely assumed that there is a new dual-capable SLCM in the works...

From my perspective, the INFT was about the Soviets eliminating a disruptive American capability, rather than eliminating two equivalent threats

The other nuclear powers need to be brought into new multilateral nuclear warhead and delivery system agreements, or else New START and the INFT will become obsolete

China is Russia's primary threat, and GLCMs are an efficient way to provide A2/AD exclusion over Siberia, given the impossibility of naval support and the difficulties of ALCM-carrier coverage


Azor....actually agree with your comments...my concern is the announced Russian parking tactical nuclear capable missiles right next to the NATO borders coupled with their de-escalation nuclear first strike is in fact a serious threat and it eliminates any warning time even for the US/NATO missile defense systems and the flight times are in seconds not minutes as with ICBMs.....and BTW the Russians fully know the Ageis system has never been against Russian ICBMs....which they even occasionally admit...

OUTLAW 09
06-24-2016, 07:33 AM
An interesting statement and it clashes with the current Russian "narrative"....on how and why Crimea was taken....if a "peacekeeping operation" then who against and WHEN will they leave?????

Russian propaganda claims soldiers who invaded Crimea were “peacekeeping mission”
http://khpg.org http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1466118961 …

OUTLAW 09
06-24-2016, 07:43 AM
The best analysis on #russianpropaganda so far by Finnish experts.
http://bit.ly/1XiKXQe