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AmericanPride
06-12-2016, 02:36 PM
Moderator's Note

Thread opened for maximum visibilty with No.3 post and first two posts moved from the main thread on Terrorism in the USA, into which one day this thread is likely to be merged:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=24078

Thread title changed to Mass shooting(s) after Orlando (ends).

Another mass shooting, this one determined to be a 'lone wolf' attack with the perpetrating having ties to radical Islamism:


Approximately 20 people are dead inside Pulse, a gay nightclub, Orlando Police Chief John Mina said Sunday morning, just hours after a shooter opened fire in what authorities are saying is a domestic terror attack.http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/12/us/orlando-nightclub-shooting/

The use of the term 'lone wolf'. I personally dislike it as it implies that incidents of these types are unrelated and therefore there is not a strategy to counter them. Often these attacks are related in both means (i.e. guns) and motive (i.e. ideology). Combating either is an opportunity for risk reduction. Note that the attacker in this case had both guns and a explosive device, which apparently did not detonate. Guns will continue replacing bombs as the most reliable weapons of terror, especially in scenarios where there is not a sophisticated network in operation.

Note: The Independent is reporting that over 50 people have been killed.

omarali50
06-12-2016, 03:56 PM
I am going to update later, but this piece has thoughts on background etc and also (in third last para), some early thoughts on the possibility of detection or pre-emption http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2015/12/san-bernadino-terror-attack.html

davidbfpo
06-12-2016, 05:27 PM
Is this massacre at a gay night club in Orlando, Florida a "lone wolf" attack or an act of Jihadist-inspired terrorism or yet another mass killing?

The second link refers to
Mateen's father Mir Seddique told NBC News that the incident had nothing to do with religion, but may have been triggered by the sight of a gay couple kissing in Miami.

I say another mass killing prompted by:
According to the Mass Shooting Tracker, the US last year suffered 372 mass shootings, defined as a single incident that kills or injures four or more people. Some 475 people were killed and 1,870 wounded.

I have only read two BBC reports:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36511778 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36512308

That the target premises was a well known gay night club earlier today led to speculation that is what made the premises a Jihadist target.

IIRC in the UK we have had Jihadist, both "lone wolves" and organised groups, plot to attack night clubs - to achieve mass casualties. Notably the two VBIEDs left outside a London night club in 2007. There was a another VBIED left near the route of a Gay Pride March around the same time IIRC.

AmericanPride
06-12-2016, 05:57 PM
David,

I don't think 'lone wolf', "jihadist-inspired terrorism' or 'mass killing' are at all mutually exclusive. It can be all three at once. I think this is the future of terrorism in the United States - right, left, Islamic, or other.

1. Mass communications and social media enables passive connectivity between sources of radicalization and would-be radicals. A 'network' exists insofar that ideological infrastructure is constructed - traditional methods of underground activities are far more risky and no longer necessary. Any wannabe terrorist can find inspiration - and direction - online.

2. The easy accessibility of guns means that any would be radical can inflict mass casualties on soft targets. Guns are (1) easy to acquire, (2) easy to use, and (3) difficult to detect. They can be purchased without arousing investigative interest. And when it comes to reliability, guns perform at a far higher level than IEDs. The threshold for action is far lower with guns than with any other weapon.

AmericanPride
06-12-2016, 06:18 PM
Related news:


Police in the Santa Monica area of Los Angeles say they've stopped a man with assault rifles, ammunition, and possible explosives in his vehicle, reportedly headed for the L.A. Pride festival in West Hollywood. The driver, who has yet to be identified by authorities, reportedly had Indiana plates.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-gay-pride-la-weapons-20160612-snap-story.html

No connection has been made to the shooting in Orlando.

slapout9
06-12-2016, 06:49 PM
As many here know I grew up in Orlando! At one time I lived about 3 streets from where this happened. I am still geting sketchy info from old time friends. Lone Wolf is not accurate! Read Dr. Sebastian Gorka USMC instructor. Lone Wolf is feel good talk. All are connected by an INFRASTRUCTRE of radical belief!

slapout9
06-12-2016, 06:52 PM
My phone is going crazy! Will post more as I can.

Bill Moore
06-12-2016, 07:08 PM
Bottom line is these attacks are inspired by ideology, not illegimate government. Time to put aside outdated ideas and describe the problem correctly, and then deal with that problem. Opportunity can emerge from tragedy, opportunity to relook and revise our current approach to CT.

davidbfpo
06-12-2016, 07:54 PM
Via Twitter a news agency report ISIS have claimed responsibility for the attack (below).

Note another SME has tweeted:
There's NO official #ISIS (https://twitter.com/hashtag/ISIS?src=hash) claim for #Orlando (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orlando?src=hash). We have a report by Amaq News agency, close 2 IS, saying sources say it was IS fighter
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkxnU_rWYAA5Y0h.jpg

slapout9
06-12-2016, 10:06 PM
His ex-wife has reported that he became violent during their marriage because of his associations???????

slapout9
06-12-2016, 11:02 PM
WFTV ch 9 local news in Orlando has video of Muslims teaching death to gays in local Mosques!

Bill Moore
06-13-2016, 03:33 AM
Assuming this Muslim leader is legitimate, his road just got a lot tougher. Both links below reference Muslims in Orlando prior to these attacks in a relatively positive light. The property dispute appears to be little more than keeping residential property residential. I suspect the tone will change now, further dividing Americans. This is ultimately part of Al-Qaeda's and Islamic State's strategy, they know they are not strong enough to defeat a state in direct combat with their security forces, so they seek to conduct attacks in ways that turn different groups against one another. It doesn't matter if Shia versus Sunni, Muslim versus Christian, or whatever group against gays. It is these second order effects after the terrorist attacks that destroy countries by dividing them. We can't afford to let that happen.

http://www.wftv.com/news/local/muslim-leaders-invite-trump-orlando-mosque-lesson-/20245443

Muslim leaders invite Trump to Orlando mosque for lesson on Islam


Wajeeh Bajwa, president of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community’s Orlando chapter, said Islam orders Muslims to be loyal to the country they live in.

"Originally, I'm from Pakistan,” Bajwa said. “But my loyalties are with America, because I'm an American now."

Orlando’s Baitul-Aafiyat Mosque hosted a blood drive Saturday afternoon, which was followed by a prayer vigil for the victims of the California massacre.

http://www.wftv.com/news/local/residents-fight-mosque-plan-on-windermere-road/157151636

Residents fight mosque plan on Windermere Road March 16


“This is still our little piece of paradise here,” she said, adding that her home is remote enough to keep her horse, Napoleon, in her back yard.

Any large facility would take away from what makes the area a great place to live, Maurer said.

The fact that it’s a mosque has nothing to do with it, she said.

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 05:18 AM
FBI never thought gay club would be target, i.e. they are NOT threat-focused
http://eastorlandopost.com/report-orlando-nightclub-shooter-cased-other-gay-clubs …

NEVER senses to amaze me that US IC and that includes the FBI....just how little they fully understand the ideology of Sunni AND Shia Salafist jihadi's....

Do they never watch their info war gay killing videos or read their announcements against gays or is it still being just viewed as "propaganda"...????

13 years into this and yet they still do not "understand" what they are "seeing".....

IS is talking to directly to the West and their "believer's" yet we are unable to "listen"....BTW...that dialogue has been ongoing since 2002 and we are now in what ....2016.....and have we learned anything from this dialogue...nothing absolutely nothing.

omarali50
06-13-2016, 05:26 AM
A nice tweet I saw today (From Jeffery Goldberg)

This needs to be reiterated: Orlando massacre can be about Islamism, access to guns, homophobia and mental illness, all at the same time

I do wish Obama had said something negative about Jihadism directly, if nothing else then as a tactical matter... He means well, but he is not helping Muslims, he is helping Trump and giving an opening to demagogues during what is an otherwise sane and measured response.

Tho come to think of it, a sane response should probably include real action against Raqqah. Discrediting the Islamic state may have a negative impact on wannabe jihadis at this time.
Though it may encourage others to attack.
I have to think this through clearly.

davidbfpo
06-13-2016, 08:26 AM
An American academic writes, with pie charts etc:https://theconversation.com/six-things-americans-should-know-about-mass-shootings-48934? (https://theconversation.com/six-things-americans-should-know-about-mass-shootings-48934?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20 for%20June%2013%202016%20-%205025&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20f or%20June%2013%202016%20-%205025+CID_653d70123185b28611203bb2a05c7f76&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Six%20things%20Americans%20should%20know% 20about%20mass%20shootings)

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2016, 07:38 PM
FBI says the #Orlando perpetrator has over three years pledged allegiance to Hezbollah, ISIS and al Nusra– which is to say, he was clueless.

Well at least he made sure he was dealing equally with the Shia and Sunni jihadi worlds......so at least he was an "equal opportunity jihadist"....

slapout9
06-13-2016, 07:53 PM
FBI never thought gay club would be target, i.e. they are NOT threat-focused
http://eastorlandopost.com/report-orlando-nightclub-shooter-cased-other-gay-clubs …

NEVER senses to amaze me that US IC and that includes the FBI....just how little they fully understand the ideology of Sunni AND Shia Salafist jihadi's....

Do they never watch their info war gay killing videos or read their announcements against gays or is it still being just viewed as "propaganda"...????

13 years into this and yet they still do not "understand" what they are "seeing".....

IS is talking to directly to the West and their "believer's" yet we are unable to "listen"....BTW...that dialogue has been ongoing since 2002 and we are now in what ....2016.....and have we learned anything from this dialogue...nothing absolutely nothing.

Very well said! Political ideology vs. Situation reality is the goal of our present leadership!

davidbfpo
06-13-2016, 08:20 PM
An article that is topical and the sub-title says:
The evidence shows that alienating an entire religious community, as Donald Trump has done, will make us less safe. There are better ways to fight extremism
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/radicalisation-islamophobia-orlando-shooting-florida-muslims-trump? (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/radicalisation-islamophobia-orlando-shooting-florida-muslims-trump?CMP=twt_gu)

davidbfpo
06-13-2016, 09:01 PM
John Schindler weighs in:http://observer.com/2016/06/jihad-denial-kills-again/

AdamG
06-14-2016, 05:37 PM
An American academic writes, with pie charts etc:

I couldn't get past Bullet Point #1 without the bull#### flag being thrown.

1) Some of the sources he cites for 'mass shootings in America' happen to include drug business slaughterfests, and the conjurists of these statistics consider anyone under 25 to be "children". But hey, don't look behind that curtain - it contradicts what you're supposed to conclude.

2) He fails to point out that, by Florida law, Concealed License carriers are not allowed to take their weapons into areas where alcohol is the primary attraction. Therefore, all those potential elements of defense had to be left home.

3) He also fails to point out that the murderer was already vetted to be a Security Guard - this is always an element of 'sensible gun legislation' (that only certain types of 'approved' people should be allowed to bear weapons).

Ooops.

slapout9
06-14-2016, 05:57 PM
Link to latest about suspects wife.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/gunmans-wife-tried-to-talk-him-out-of-attack/ar-AAh2kPR?ocid=spartandhp

davidbfpo
06-15-2016, 11:07 AM
Peter Bergen has an op-ed in the NYT which starts with:
AFTER a terrorist attack like the one in Florida on Sunday, one of the first questions people always ask is: Why? Why would someone take the lives of innocent civilians who are total strangers? That is a question to which I have long sought an answer. But my search has led me instead to another question: Is an answer even possible?

He ends with:
No doubt we will learn more in coming days. But it’s unlikely that anything will ever really explain why he did what he did. Perhaps that says something about the nature of evil, — that it is ultimately not fully explicable. Even the perpetrators themselves can never really articulate “Why?” in any meaningful way.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/opinion/why-do-terrorists-commit-terrorism.html? (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/opinion/why-do-terrorists-commit-terrorism.html?emc=edit_ee_20160615&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=67232673&_r=0)

After recent reporting, notably that the murderer had been inside the venue many times before and the incoherent views expressed I am less inclined to think this attack was really Jihadist.

AmericanPride
06-15-2016, 01:56 PM
Peter Bergen has an op-ed in the NYT which starts with:

He ends with:
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/opinion/why-do-terrorists-commit-terrorism.html? (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/opinion/why-do-terrorists-commit-terrorism.html?emc=edit_ee_20160615&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=67232673&_r=0)

After recent reporting, notably that the murderer had been inside the venue many times before and the incoherent views expressed I am less inclined to think this attack was really Jihadist.

David,

I'm of the opinion that a substantial number (or even majority) of "jihadists", at least in the "lone wolf" context, use the ideology as form of escapism and empowerment from some other internal torment. When people are alienated from the mainstream, they frequently adopt beliefs and behaviors to rationalize their condition - and sometimes a violent response to it.

davidbfpo
06-15-2016, 03:12 PM
David,

I'm of the opinion that a substantial number (or even majority) of "jihadists", at least in the "lone wolf" context, use the ideology as form of escapism and empowerment from some other internal torment. When people are alienated from the mainstream, they frequently adopt beliefs and behaviors to rationalize their condition - and sometimes a violent response to it.

I do wonder if the US security sector, both government and others, would prefer that such an attacker be a "lone wolf" with announced jihadist views. Responding to the wider societal issues of 'beliefs and behaviors' is even more problematic; note a previous post elsewhere on the proportion of the US population who were prepared to use violence for political ends.

slapout9
06-15-2016, 08:18 PM
IMO there is more to the father then is being presented.

AmericanPride
06-16-2016, 02:08 PM
I do wonder if the US security sector, both government and others, would prefer that such an attacker be a "lone wolf" with announced jihadist views. Responding to the wider societal issues of 'beliefs and behaviors' is even more problematic; note a previous post elsewhere on the proportion of the US population who were prepared to use violence for political ends.

When compared to counter-terrorism, mental health is not exactly a pressing political issue in the US. In Orlando, I definitely think the ISIS connection was "opportunistic" and it is much easier for security types to respond to a security problem than a social problem.

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2016, 04:01 PM
FBI never thought gay club would be target, i.e. they are NOT threat-focused
http://eastorlandopost.com/report-orlando-nightclub-shooter-cased-other-gay-clubs …

NEVER senses to amaze me that US IC and that includes the FBI....just how little they fully understand the ideology of Sunni AND Shia Salafist jihadi's....

Do they never watch their info war gay killing videos or read their announcements against gays or is it still being just viewed as "propaganda"...????

13 years into this and yet they still do not "understand" what they are "seeing".....

IS is talking to directly to the West and their "believer's" yet we are unable to "listen"....BTW...that dialogue has been ongoing since 2002 and we are now in what ....2016.....and have we learned anything from this dialogue...nothing absolutely nothing.

To understand IS and Salafist jihadi's one must understand the ideology....
Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan · Jun 13

IS ideology: a product of a slow hybridization between doctrinaire Salafism and Islamist currents http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/13/sectarianism-of-islamic-state-ideological-roots-and-political-context/j1iy …
my in-depth paper

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
"Relying [solely] on the titles of books and writings used by the Islamic State can distort, not inform, the understanding of its ideology"

Once one fully understands Salafists...THEN start understanding Takfirism...this shooter was a Takfirist....

THAT is exactly why the FBU blew it when they interviewed him as they had no idea what Takfirism is inside Islam..and if one is truly honest all of the 9/11 attackers were also Takfirists....as was the recent CA attacker....

Lone wolf is just a term to create a smoke screen on having to admit by the US IC and FBI they have no earthly idea of how to handle Takfirists as they do not fit the concept of a trained jihadi sleeper cell.

The US IC and FBI have slept through the subtle IS shift in tactics and it will take a large amount of effort to catch up....if they can in fact catch up......IS constantly learns and we sleep at the wheel...typical...

slapout9
06-16-2016, 06:15 PM
To understand IS and Salafist jihadi's one must understand the ideology....
Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan · Jun 13

IS ideology: a product of a slow hybridization between doctrinaire Salafism and Islamist currents http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/13/sectarianism-of-islamic-state-ideological-roots-and-political-context/j1iy …
my in-depth paper

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
"Relying [solely] on the titles of books and writings used by the Islamic State can distort, not inform, the understanding of its ideology"

Once one fully understands Salafists...THEN start understanding Takfirism...this shooter was a Takfirist....

THAT is exactly why the FBU blew it when they interviewed him as they had no idea what Takfirism is inside Islam..and if one is truly honest all of the 9/11 attackers were also Takfirists....as was the recent CA attacker....

Lone wolf is just a term to create a smoke screen on having to admit by the US IC and FBI they have no earthly idea of how to handle Takfirists as they do not fit the concept of a trained jihadi sleeper cell.

The US IC and FBI have slept through the subtle IS shift in tactics and it will take a large amount of effort to catch up....if they can in fact catch up......IS constantly learns and we sleep at the wheel...typical...

Again well said.

AmericanPride
06-16-2016, 09:43 PM
Outlaw-

In regards to Orlando specifically, Islamic terrorism is certainly one narrative, but certainly not the only or exclusive one. And probably not the dominant one. By all publicly available accounts, Mateen was apparently mentally disturbed. By the time he expressed support for ISIS, he was already well on his way towards radicalization and violence.

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 09:41 AM
Outlaw-

In regards to Orlando specifically, Islamic terrorism is certainly one narrative, but certainly not the only or exclusive one. And probably not the dominant one. By all publicly available accounts, Mateen was apparently mentally disturbed. By the time he expressed support for ISIS, he was already well on his way towards radicalization and violence.

AP...here is the problem.....he was Muslim and gay (BTW it has not been totally confirmed he was actually gay) and in that environment which we cannot even comprehend while our society has it's own problems with the term "gay" ....that is in the Muslim world an even deadlier mixture.

Just check how IS handles the problem in Iraq and Syria...BUT here again the problem....IS has a history of looking for "gays" and actually incorporating them into their "far fight"......especially since "conversion to Islam" basically washes away your previous sins....notice IS never went into his life style did it when they called him a "fighter"..in their immediate PR.....that term alone says it all.

Terming someone "mental" is an easy way out and then we do not have to research the answer as to why..."he went mental" and exactly how did the FBI "blow it". Here is again a problem...in his mind he was not "mental"...remember it was his very own mind that was driving him that day.

Back to Takfirism....if one fully understands it you will see that the ideology of "Takfirists" is far different than that of Salafists....

Takfirists say you as a Muslim can drink, party, go to strip clubs, womanize around, take drugs, dress differently and YES even be gay because and here is the clue you as a "perfect warrior/fighter" are using the norms of your enemy to defeat him as he cannot see you as he assumes you are just one of the group and you do not stick out......a form of "camouflage" if you like...and he uses this "camouflage" to defeat his declared "enemy.

BTW the only Muslim in Islam that can kill another Muslim and not have to pay a price for the killing is a "Takfirist".....we saw that often "ideologically" used by first QJBR then AQI in Iraq to justify their killing of other Sunni insurgent leaders for not "following the correct path".

We now see the circle come full circle....using two different tactical methods by AQ and now IS.....

Shortly after 9/11, a US journalist well versed in Islam and speaking Arabic went to Hamburg GE and conducted a series of long interviews with the wife's and girlfriend's and close friends of the 9/11 Hamburg cell which was one of the driving forces of the 9/11 attack. Then he published his book...which got some interest and today you cannot find a single copy available anywhere for some strange reason, not even to be found in used book stores.

Strangely the actions of this Hamburg group paralleled that of the CA attacker and that of Orlando...remember the CA attacker also drank, partied hard and went to clubs also with his wife AS well as did the entire group of 9/11 attackers.

WHY..... the entire 9/11 Hamburg cell went through a self radicalization process from Salafist to Takfirist together and they all went to the same mosque together making the radicalization process far easier.

What struck me in the book was his description of the term that these Hamburg family members and close friends said the group often would use in political and religious debates and conversations......they viewed themselves as "perfect warriors".

The term IS used in their PR release in claiming the attack....was "fighter" which can be interchanged and is often interchanged with the word "warrior"...."warrior" used to be used for a killed cell member as a sign of deep respect, but it has become interchangeable with the "term "fighter" since the series of attacks in Europe in the last year as IS was shifting tactically from cell attackers to individual attackers.

NOW jump to Iraq 2005 and 2006....when I was dealing with detained fighters from Ansar al Sunnah and AQI I would ask them in the middle of a long interrogation and in no connection to the previous questions...."are you a perfect warrior"....which even my US Iraqi Muslim interpreter had not idea what it meant until I explained it to him......the question always caught them off guard and after usually a long pregnant period of total silence they quietly would say yes......emphasis on "quietly"......then and only then did we get to the truth because they recognized that even in Iraq there was an American who fully understood their religious driver..and I could hold my own using Koranic verses..I usually got great reports.

Only they were never read at national nor did national ever ask for a follow up.

So again we need to fully and frankly understand both ideological drivers of the jihadi world.....BTW we have not even touched the world of Shia jihadists.

There was though one comment he made that immediately caught my attention...he stated he was doing this because of the killing and bombing in Syria...he did not use killing and bombing of IS BUT used the word Syria.

So in his self radicalization process did he pick up on the fact that the US was allowing Syrian Muslims to be virtually butchered with no response coming from the US...was he actually faulting the US for the lack of any US actions in protecting Muslims....along with the standard IS rhetoric.

Over the last five years there has been plenty of videos on the net depicting the genocide and killing of Arab Sunni's many claiming they were from US bombings and now with the Russian bombings there was a flood of such videos many very graphic in nature especially of killed children and women.

That is a major critique of the current US policy that we hear louder and louder out of the ME from those fighting Assad as well as the IS itself.

Also notice many faulted him immediately for appearing to stupidly mixing all forms of different terrorist groups....Hezbollah, IS etc....BUT wait jihadists of all political directions including Shiaism all share similar Islamic beliefs and the US is always the target.

We really do need to get away from the IS "sleeper cells" myth and ask ourselves how do we counter a single "believer".....and how do we "spot him or her" when they look, act, drink, talk and think like we do in every day life......ie "the perfect warrior"......

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2016, 10:55 AM
Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
My latest @ForeignPolicy assessment of ISIS's current state of play, in the context of the Orlando attack

Washington’s War on the Islamic State Is Only Making It Stronger

The caliphate is losing territory in Iraq and Syria, but the U.S.-backed military campaign is stoking sectarian tensions that could spread global jihad

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/16/washingtons-war-on-the-islamic-state-is-only-making-it-stronger-syria-iraq-libya/

slapout9
06-17-2016, 06:34 PM
We really do need to get away from the IS "sleeper cells" myth and ask ourselves how do we counter a single "believer".....and how do we "spot him or her" when they look, act, drink, talk and think like we do in every day life......ie "the perfect warrior"......

You should expand upon that if you can. The actions the attacker took were very similar to the the attack that happened to me and my wife. In our case he started going to funerals of people that were NOT related to him! He tried to alter life insurance policies. My point is there is an observable and detectable Death Ritual all seem to follow. But PC may prevent this from being done. Most actions would not have anything to do with gun control so I don't believe there would be much political support to use such a process.

davidbfpo
06-17-2016, 08:47 PM
Slap and Outlaw09,

Perhaps this short Scientific American article can help: 'The Science of Mass Shooters: What Drives a Person to Kill? (sub-title) There is no template for the path to violence and rarely can a single cause explain any one atrocity':http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-science-of-mass-shooters-what-drives-a-person-to-kill/? (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-science-of-mass-shooters-what-drives-a-person-to-kill/?wt.mc=SA_Twitter-Share)

It is a quick resume of some research and cites Professor Mia Bloom in particular:
We need to get rid of the bystander effect..We need to find a way that if someone says they are planning to do something, that there are safe mechanisms for the individual to report without themselves becoming a suspect or a person of interest. We need to come up with a way of separating the wheat from the chaff as far as people who are serious.

I note the actions are a mixture of personal, institutional and state surveillance of online activity. Sadly IMHO it would overwhelm law enforcement and intelligence with too much data, let alone "false flags". Plus IF mental health is the focus is that is politically acceptable.

davidbfpo
07-13-2016, 03:29 PM
I spotted this article via Twitter and it's application is general to US society, not just these murders:https://warisboring.com/what-on-killing-can-teach-us-about-mass-shootings-d2b0c04bc0f1#.6hssdabyf

It starts with:
Dave Grossman’s 1996 book On Killing (http://www.openroadmedia.com/ebook/on-killing/) is a landmark and studied account of how — and why — human beings have inhibitions toward killing others, and how the U.S. military turned its soldiers into far more lethal killers with intense conditioning following World War II.In an updated edition, he warns that these same psychological inhibitions are eroding within American society, but with fewer safeguards, allowing sociopathic tendencies to arise and enable mass violence.


(Later the author asks) But the question we need to ask is, What makes today’s children bring those guns to school when their parents did not? And the answer to that question may be that the important ingredient, the vital, new, different ingredient in killing in modern combat and in killing in modern American society, is the systematic process of defeating the normal individual’s age-old, psychological inhibition against violent, harmful activity toward one’s own species. Are we taking the safety catch off of a nation, just as surely and easily as we would take the safety catch off of a gun, and with the same results?


A UK academic psychologist offers a viewpoint:https://theconversation.com/can-we-predict-who-will-become-mass-shooters-60969? (https://theconversation.com/can-we-predict-who-will-become-mass-shooters-60969?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20 for%20July%204%202016%20-%205167&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20f or%20July%204%202016%20-%205167+CID_b580b97df41ab0bfbbafa939719c76f2&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Can%20we%20predict%20who%20will%20become% 20mass%20shooters)

AdamG
07-16-2016, 01:40 PM
I would suggest posts #33 & 34 above be cloned into the ISIS Savagery thread (or whatever Dave the cop decides to call it).

The Venn Diagram overlap between psychokiller and ISIS Muj are trending towards 95%+.

davidbfpo
07-16-2016, 04:00 PM
Thanks Adam G,

I have copied the two posts to the thread The Management of Savagery:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=21675


I would suggest posts #33 & 34 above be cloned into the ISIS Savagery thread (or whatever Dave the cop decides to call it).

The Venn Diagram overlap between psychokiller and ISIS Muj are trending towards 95%+.

Sadly the overlap maybe all too accurate. What is perplexing me, is do the lone wolves have those traits before encountering ISIS? Secondly, will the savagery repel "ordinary" people? Alongside being terrorised.

davidbfpo
09-27-2016, 11:05 PM
From The Soufan Group:
Bottom Line Up Front: • A September 26 shooting in Houston, TX, that left 9 wounded and the shooter dead is just the latest in a surge of active shooter situations.
• Three days earlier, a man killed five people in a Burlington, WA, mall with a rifle, forcing an evacuation and calls to shelter in place.
• Law enforcement procedures for active shooters were altered in the wake of the Columbine High School shooting to reflect the urgent need to neutralize the threat as quickly as possible.
• With the confusion inherent in any report of shots fired—coupled with a country on edge over terrorism—active shooters present a massive challenge for law enforcement.Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-america-in-the-age-of-active-shooters/

davidbfpo
11-10-2017, 02:50 PM
There have been mass shootings all to often since the last post in September 2016; some may have appeared on the Terrorism in the USA thread. Just checked there was no Forum post on the Las Vegas shooting of six hundred people.

Following the Texas church shooting I read a number of articles and this one stuck in my mind as a useful source of information - partly due to clear graphics. Secondly it takes a public health approach.

The Key would not copy for the below maps; situation in 1991 (left) and today (right). Red for Allowed and grey Not Allowed.

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2017/11/03/kristof/1f4fc6c8ee59123d13f50a86683a9296e8949219/guns5aopencarry-720.png

Link:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/06/opinion/how-to-reduce-shootings.html? (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/06/opinion/how-to-reduce-shootings.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region)

This thread did have 8,458 views just over a year ago and today has had 42,869 views - another indicator of use to readers, even if no discussion has ensued.

AdamG
01-09-2018, 12:32 PM
The wife of Orlando nightclub shooter Omar Mateen told the FBI in the hours after the 2016 massacre that she knew he was plotting "to do something bad" and that he revealed, "This is my target," according to a new court document.
The 12-page statement that authorities say Noor Salman gave was released late last month as part of the case against her. Federal prosecutors initially said during a hearing early last year that Salman had known ahead of time about Mateen's plans and even helped him to scout Pulse, a popular gay nightclub, as the location for his rampage. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/orlando-nightclub-massacre/wife-pulse-gunman-said-he-told-her-my-target-statement-n835221

davidbfpo
02-17-2018, 11:43 AM
A good article after this week's shooting in Florida:
merging these disparate pieces of data together to fuel a global, real-time threat screener that can be applied to the population at large will remain impossible for all practical purposes
Link:http://www.defenseone.com/business/2015/07/why-lone-wolf-attacks-are-so-hard-predict/118279/

Now it does not help when the FBI get a citizen's call and appear to have dismissed it as a credible pointer.

davidbfpo
02-18-2018, 11:52 AM
One of the better articles I have read since the latest shooting and the author is Malcolm Gladwell; he does not refer to the latest shooting.

He ends with:
The problem is not that there is an endless supply of deeply disturbed young men who are willing to contemplate horrific acts. It’s worse. It’s that young men no longer need to be deeply disturbed to contemplate horrific acts.
Link:https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/10/19/thresholds-of-violence?

AdamG
02-19-2018, 01:37 AM
Now it does not help when the FBI get a citizen's call and appear to have dismissed it as a credible pointer.

Twice, within four months. Those Agents who failed to do their duties (and embarrassed the Agency) should be revealed to the public.



The F.B.I. received a tip last month from someone close to Nikolas Cruz that he owned a gun and had talked of committing a school shooting, the bureau revealed Friday, but it acknowledged that it had failed to investigate.
The tipster, who called an F.B.I. hotline on Jan. 5, told the bureau that Mr. Cruz had a “desire to kill people, erratic behavior and disturbing social media posts,” the F.B.I. said.
The information should have been assessed and forwarded to the Miami F.B.I. field office, the bureau said. But that never happened. On Wednesday, Mr. Cruz, 19, killed 17 students and teachers at his former high school in Parkland, Fla., law enforcement officials said.
The tip about Mr. Cruz appeared to be the second in four months, after another person told the bureau about online comments from Mr. Cruz that he wanted to become “a professional school shooter.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/us/fbi-nikolas-cruz-shooting.html

AdamG
02-19-2018, 01:40 AM
For anyone inclined to call for more legislation, feel free to explain how that would help if the current laws aren't enforced.

More damage control, after the bull has left the barn. From 12 FEB 18


(CNN)Since an ex-US airman shot more than two dozen people in a Texas church in November, the US military has added more than 4,000 names to the nation's list of dishonorably discharged military personnel banned from owning firearms -- a sign of what has been a massive hole in the nation's gun buying background check system.
http://www.cnn.com/2018/02/12/us/gun-background-check-backlog-military-dishonorable-discharge-invs/index.html

AdamG
02-20-2018, 02:26 PM
[Props to the Agents who did the statistical collations]

In 64 incidents (40.0%), the shooters committed suicide; 54 shooters did so at the scene of the crime.

"Of the 160 incidents, at least 107 (66.9%) ended before police arrived and could engage the shooter, either because a citizen intervened, the shooter fled, or the shooter committed suicide or was killed by someone at the scene."

In 21 incidents (13.1%), the situation ended after unarmed citizens safely and successfully restrained the shooter. In 2 of those incidents,24 3 off-duty law enforcement officers were present and assisted. ■■ Of note, 11 of the incidents involved unarmed principals, teachers, other school staff and students who confronted shooters to end the threat (9 of those shooters were students). ■ In 5 incidents (3.1%), the shooting ended after armed individuals who were not law enforcement personnel exchanged gunfire with the shooters. In these incidents, 3 shooters were killed, 1 was wounded, and 1 committed suicide. ■■ The individuals involved in these shootings included a citizen with a valid firearms permit and armed security guards at a church, an airline counter, a federally managed museum, and a school board meeting.25 ■ In 2 incidents (1.3%), 2 armed, off-duty police officers engaged the shooters, resulting in the death of the shooters. In 1 of those incidents, the off-duty officer assisted a responding officer to end the threat.26

https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/active-shooter-study-2000-2013-1.pdf

40 incidents in 26 states:20 incidents in 2014; 20 incidents in 2015.
231 casualties: 92 killed and 139 wounded (excluding the shooters).
4 law enforcement officers killed and 10 wounded in 6 incidents.
3 unarmed security guards wounded.

6 incidents ended when citizens acted to end the threat.
26 incidents ended with law enforcement at the scene.
14 incidents ended with an exchange of gunfire between the 16 shooters and law enforcement.
12 killed by police, one off-duty.
3 committed suicide. 1 surrendered to law enforcement.
42 shooters; 39 male 3 female.
2 husband-and-wife teams.

16 shooters committed suicide.
14 shooters were killed by law enforcement.
12 shooters were apprehended.

https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/activeshooterincidentsus_2014-2015.pdf

davidbfpo
04-27-2018, 07:37 PM
A detailed report from the Miami Herald on the shooting and what went wrong. It is not an easy read and the blame does not rest with the Schools Officer present.
Link:http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article209887469.html? (http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article209887469.html?__twitter_impression=true)

davidbfpo
06-21-2018, 06:40 PM
Captured via Twitter this 28 page report, mainly from their Behavioural Analysis Unit (BAU) and sub-titled:
This report, covering active shooter incidents in the United States between 2000 and 2013, examines specific behaviors that may precede an attack and that might be useful in identifying, assessing, and managing those who may be on a pathway to violence.
Link:https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/pre-attack-behaviors-of-active-shooters-in-us-2000-2013.pdf/view

It is the second part of a research programme, Part One was published in 2014, which had a different focus.

AdamG
10-01-2018, 10:17 PM
Add crappy security to the list of "failed Checks and Balances already set forth".

From March of this year -

The trailers with the guns had been parked back-to-back with the roll-up doors facing each other. Two longer trailers were then parked along those trailers to prevent anyone from backing a tractor up to the trailers and pulling them away.

Someone had hot-wired two tractor-trailers in the lot, investigators said, then used them to push and pull trailers around the lot until thieves could access the guns.

All told, feds said the thieves took 600 handguns, 54 shotguns, an entire pallet of Western-style boots, power tools and a dozen cases of soda.


On Nov. 19, police officers arrested the Whites at the Redneck Heaven Restaurant and Bar in Arlington, documents say. Derrick White's red Chrysler 300 was parked outside the bar, documents say, and officers found a .380-caliber handgun. That Beretta pistol was confirmed to be one of the 600 stolen handguns, documents say.
https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/crime/2018/03/21/654-guns-bound-bass-pro-vanished-heres-how-atf-says-they-found-thieves-and-1-gun/445208002/

Today -


MEMPHIS, Tenn. — The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and Memphis Police Department are investigating after hundreds of guns were stolen over the weekend. According to the agencies, two men driving a U-Haul vehicle pulled up to the UPS facility at 1803 Brooks Road in Memphis and took off with 400 guns. They say the guns could be transported to other cities within hours.

https://wreg.com/2018/10/01/authorities-400-guns-stolen-from-ups-facility/

davidbfpo
11-13-2018, 08:51 AM
From The Soufan Group and more direct than normal. BLUF:


On November 7, a man with a handgun murdered 11 people inside a bar in Thousand Oaks, California.
The Thousand Oaks shooting was the fourth such case in the U.S., with ten or more killed, since the start of 2018.
The rate of these high-fatality attacks has increased, while overall crime trends remain low throughout most of the country.
The U.S. is the only developed nation that produces and experiences this level of mass shootings as well as overall gun deaths.

Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-national-security-in-a-nation-of-mass-shootings/

AdamG
01-01-2019, 05:07 PM
Excellent presentation on the absolute failure of Law Enforcement to do their jobs and enforce existing laws.

UNPREPARED AND OVERWHELMED
Two decades after Columbine and five years after Sandy Hook, educators and police still weren’t ready for Parkland.
http://projects.sun-sentinel.com/2018/sfl-parkland-school-shooting-critical-moments/?fbclid=IwAR1XnJXU1NS3ErTCoE2LaMEc3Veq0BL7r-akVbt1LddGBMeT90RaEoMoxx8