UK Declares Independence From The EU!

[slapout9]

The United Kingdom has declared Independence from the European Union..... aka Euro-Commies. The Brave British citizens stood up to massive globalist propaganda and declared their freedom.

Hail Britannia:)

[omarali50]

http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/2016/06/orlando-trump-brexit-indian-history-and.html

Interesting times..

[OUTLAW 09]

The United Kingdom has declared Independence from the European Union..... aka Euro-Commies. The Brave British citizens stood up to massive globalist propaganda and declared their freedom.

Hail Britannia:)

BUT WAIT....at what cost?...they complained about EU yearly fees but the value loses of the FTSE yesterday equaled 40 years of EU payments........and it literally wiped out UK/US pensioner investments along the way and drove up UK gasoline prices by 10%

Google released the top ten Google searches after the Leave won.....the top ones were
1. What is the EU
2.How many countries are in it
3. What do we get from the EU
4. what is Article 50

Then Scotland is leaving within the next two years

Then N.Irland raises it head again

Then the French at the Calais crossing stated......start your own border controls now in Dover not in France and take the refugees camped here with you

Then if you see the voting breakdown the over 65s voted to Leave and the majority of the youth 18-30 voted to stay thus the older generation deprived the younger generation that opportunity of living and working in Europe......

THEN Leave argued investments would continue to flow into UK...THEN interviewed large companies to include Airbus UK stated when we leave there will be massive reviews of investments and we know what that means AND all major US corporate headquarters setup in the UK as they speak English and were in the EU have started indicating a relocation rethink...

THEN the London Banking City will be moved as they can no longer deal in EU funds and bonds since they are not a member.....estimated job loss...100,000

THEN what will the border look like between Ireland and N.Ireland

THEN..THEN and more then......

Then this headline this morning;
Cornwall votes for Brexit and then pleads to keep EU funding
Cornwall receives millions of pounds in EU subsidies every year
Cornwall received over 675M Euros in support subsidies from 2007-13
NOW they are complaining well the Leave told us the EU funding will continue....even if we vote against

THEN the UK is waking up today to realize that hundreds of EU jobs and EU Parliament positions and their jobs are gone in two years AND that they will need a visa to travel to say Spain where they have second homes and by the way their NHS healthcare coverage will not be accepted in the EU...

BTW...if one looks at the amounts of EU subsidies for low income rural areas that flowed into the areas that voted to Leave....it is simply amazing what the amounts are...so yes they voted to Leave BUT kneecapped themselves in the process

Appears that the Brits had simply no idea about what the heck the EU was and or just how much subsidy support they did receive.....

WHAT is amazing is that when one analyzes the reasons why Leave won...much support came from rural and or towns/villages that had high unemployment, poor schools and a history of over 40 years of neglect by the UK central government as everything in the UK is driven out of London.

So in fact it was a major slap in the face against "poor governance" and the EU took the place of London.

Now the next day they are fully realizing exactly what they did in fact do to themselves both in driving the UK apart as well as their own financial future...

BUT what do we hear from the Leave politicians...hey we want a Norway model..forgetting that Norway must adhere to EU regs and laws, that they must adhere to certain levels of EU control AND they must pay an annual fee that ain't cheap AND have no vote in what the EU does....

So having "won back" their government and country appears to me to have been a "hallow victory"...

BTW...during the Leave interviews yesterday the Leave side started hinting and backing away from their constant statements we will trigger Article 50 immediately and replaced it with well maybe triggering in 2018 and goin into effect in 2020 thus continuing to eat their "cake" and still complain.....

That was countered by the EU which stated the reforms promised to UK prior to the referendum are no longer valid and they want the process to start immediately in order to assure the financial markets that this will not drag out over years.....

THEN Leave countered.....you cannot tell us when to trigger Article 50.....EU Commission response read the fine print of Article 50 and what the Leave side failed to understand even written in English was the simple fact that the EU envisioned a government coming in and submitting Article 50.

EU commission legal beagles now state that the Referendum supported by the civil society is a valid replacement to triggering Article 50 as the Leave clearly put to the people stay or leave and the people ran to Leave...thus fulfilling Article 50.

So if this was a victory I truly would hate to see what defeat looks like.......

BTW...EU is indicating that the negotiations with UK will be hard in order to not cause a domino effect......meaning others than want to potentially leave believing they will get a good deal when they leave.....

What is amazing is that those that want to leave have profited the most money wise from the EU rural development funds to the tune of BILLIONS......

[Firn]

@Outlaw: Lots of good questions and points.



The United Kingdom has declared Independence from the European Union..... aka Euro-Commies. The Brave British citizens stood up to massive globalist propaganda and declared their freedom.


Indeed, finally a poorer DisUnited Kingdom or possible Little Britain will likely be able to have migration and taxation without representation...

The whole experiment will be interesting to watch from a macro and micro point of view. So far I have a hard time to figure out the plan of the Leavers, but surely there is a clear and logical one after their honest and thoughtful campaign.

Anyway the best of luck. Hopefully only Will Griggs will be on fire (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YUODZEQmA4) in NI and an eventual exit by Scotland will not cause too much economic pain on both sides of the border.

[davidbfpo]

I wrote the below in response to a SWC member's question, what did I think today? Today I have read several good commentaries and may in time answer some of the points made here.

Greetings from a slightly bewildered UK, everyone expresses surprise at the referendum result. A friend in the Labour Party was at the count in Birmingham, they were all astounded and realise lots of re-thinking is needed.

I did not stay up through the night, but watched one hour of reporting at 0730hrs and watched David Cameron's statement.

What is really odd is that last night, after the polls had closed, Nigel Farage (UKIP) stated Remain had won by 4%. I did not watch the polls during the campaign.

I have for weeks thought that the Remain campaign could backfire. One, the electorate could use the referendum to bash all the politicians and the interventions of outsiders, big business and others was counter-productive. Then the Remain campaign stupidly relied on a mix of dire threats, notably economic forecasts and simply "trust us".

It was clear two weeks ago that the Labour Party, who had IMHO conducted a lacklustre campaign, were finding their supporters on the doorstep strongly opposed to Remain. Yes, immigration was one issue and more so in areas where there was little diversity or where recent immigration was concentrated.

Personally I wanted to Exit, even if those campaigning did not appeal to me. I have regretted for many years voting Yes in the 1975 Referendum, on remaining a member of the EEC.

Put simply I did not want to be part of a European super-state, which is the EU's over-riding objective. The EEC morphed into the EU and simply marched on-wards minus any democratic mandate, let alone accountability to the people. Nor has the EU been that successful, including in the security field - where it should not have ventured - and NATO is more than adequate, with faults.

My reasons are political, not economic, but it is quite clear the Euro has been destroying the economies of several Southern / Mediterranean members. There remains the prospect of one or more defaulting on loans, on a scale far greater than Greece.

Yes there will be a long-term price to pay. One that is not very clear; will the EU "play ball" or be hostile?

Domestically I am not convinced Scotland really wants to exit the UK. That could alter if the negotiations with the EU are painful. Northern Ireland is in far weaker position, in part due its precarious economy and the strength of the Unionist vote.

Who will be the next Conservative leader? I have no idea. A lot will depend on who the MPs think can win the next General Election, which now could be sooner rather than the scheduled 2020.

Finally I do rather like David Betz's (Kings War Studies) recent WoTR column and this passage in particular:
The European Union is a kind of Titanic. In the minds of its designers it was supposed to be impregnable to icebergs — in fact they reckoned that the striking of icebergs and ensuing moments of crisis were vital inflection points in which further steps towards political integration might be achieved. Most Remainers proclaim they want to stay in it to reform it, which they cannot do. Some seem genuinely to think everything is a-okay, which it is certainly not. The debate in Britain is essentially about whether it is better to stay on the sinking ship until it sinks or to jump before it sinks. Either way it is sunk.Link: http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/why-does-the-united-states-oppose-brexit-i-cant-say/

Best wishes and thanks for reading.

[davidbfpo]

One of the few measured commentaries yesterday:
Historian and constitutional expert Lord Peter Hennessy looks back at British history to evaluate the significance of the referendum result. The Attlee Professor of Contemporary British History at Queen Mary University of London was speaking to the BBC's Diplomatic Correspondent James Robbins.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36625209

One of his passages:
The only thing comparable in my lifetime is the end of the British Empire, which, like this, was a huge geopolitical shift. But getting rid of the British Empire was done over many, many years and by and large in the time control of the British government of the day. It left very few scars on us.But this is sudden. This is guillotine time. This is quite extraordinary and in peacetime British history quite unprecedented.

One of better journalists who actually goes outside the London "bubble" for The Guardian:
Brexit is about more than the EU: it’s about class, inequality, and voters feeling excluded from politics. So how do we even begin to put Britain the right way up?
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/divided-britain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster? (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/divided-britain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster?CMP=share_btn_tw)

I admire Peter Oborne's writing and in a rather futurist article he predicts much. He starts though with:
It is a revolution by ordinary British people against a grasping political class which gave us Black Wednesday, the Iraq War and the financial crash of 2008. Essentially, this is a revolt by the provinces against London and the poor against the rich.
Link:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3659144/Carney-sacked-Lord-Farage-bye-bye-Scotland-Oh-brand-new-party-PETER-OBORNE-looks-crystal-ball-coming-months-hold.html

A LSE academic has an obituary for David Cameron and what politics could become:http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/epitaph-for-a-political-chancer/

[OUTLAW 09]

I wrote the below in response to a SWC member's question, what did I think today? Today I have read several good commentaries and may in time answer some of the points made here.

Greetings from a slightly bewildered UK, everyone expresses surprise at the referendum result. A friend in the Labour Party was at the count in Birmingham, they were all astounded and realise lots of re-thinking is needed.

I did not stay up through the night, but watched one hour of reporting at 0730hrs and watched David Cameron's statement.

What is really odd is that last night, after the polls had closed, Nigel Farage (UKIP) stated Remain had won by 4%. I did not watch the polls during the campaign.

I have for weeks thought that the Remain campaign could backfire. One, the electorate could use the referendum to bash all the politicians and the interventions of outsiders, big business and others was counter-productive. Then the Remain campaign stupidly relied on a mix of dire threats, notably economic forecasts and simply "trust us".

It was clear two weeks ago that the Labour Party, who had IMHO conducted a lacklustre campaign, were finding their supporters on the doorstep strongly opposed to Remain. Yes, immigration was one issue and more so in areas where there was little diversity or where recent immigration was concentrated.

Personally I wanted to Exit, even if those campaigning did not appeal to me. I have regretted for many years voting Yes in the 1975 Referendum, on remaining a member of the EEC.

Put simply I did not want to be part of a European super-state, which is the EU's over-riding objective. The EEC morphed into the EU and simply marched on-wards minus any democratic mandate, let alone accountability to the people. Nor has the EU been that successful, including in the security field - where it should not have ventured - and NATO is more than adequate, with faults.

My reasons are political, not economic, but it is quite clear the Euro has been destroying the economies of several Southern / Mediterranean members. There remains the prospect of one or more defaulting on loans, on a scale far greater than Greece.

Yes there will be a long-term price to pay. One that is not very clear; will the EU "play ball" or be hostile?

Domestically I am not convinced Scotland really wants to exit the UK. That could alter if the negotiations with the EU are painful. Northern Ireland is in far weaker position, in part due its precarious economy and the strength of the Unionist vote.

Who will be the next Conservative leader? I have no idea. A lot will depend on who the MPs think can win the next General Election, which now could be sooner rather than the scheduled 2020.

Finally I do rather like David Betz's (Kings War Studies) recent WoTR column and this passage in particular:Link: http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/why-does-the-united-states-oppose-brexit-i-cant-say/

Best wishes and thanks for reading.

David.....as someone who has watched the EEC, then the EC and then the EU everyone knew that the easy part is trade and a central currency and how has watched UK vote to join in and now out...there is one underlining point that is well forgotten by all those countries that have joined the original five then six.

It is all about the money....and that I mean is mainly the only reason older many members and the latest new members ever had when joining.

The EU Rural development fund has been basically used by a turnstile revolving credit card to draw in BILLIONs in rural aid funds which have either been wisely or unwisely used by the member states.

BTW UK is no different......look at the total shock about now funding being cut off....the UK was the largest single member drawing massive amounts of EU research/education funding.....that will go away as well now.......and BTW the pay masters always being Germany followed by France and the Dutch.

If one really looks a the collapse and resulting financial problems of Ireland, Spain, Portugal, some degree Italy and especially Greece.....that credit card mentality drove a massive real estate bubble that burst in 2008 leaving billions in bad debts to be paid at some time in the future by the Germans, French and Dutch via the ECB...and notice the real estate bubble was and still is in the UK and it has now burst with a 12% sudden fall in house prices yesterday with the fall of the Pound.

The second reason to join was the sheer volume of internal EU trading that was and has been building over the years.....UK now has to fight to get into that again but this time with tariffs on their products and the standardization of safety and food standards that has benefits all members.

Let's look at the UK argument not to join the Euro...after the massive fall yesterday it take 1.22 UK pounds to purchase a Euro...and with further falling the sovereign credit rating being lowered to negative and S&P dropping the credit rating to AA the Pound will be cheaper than the Euro.

Immigration....was a smokescreen and racist in the end....when I came to work with Cisco in 1995 in the UK I had to wait 3 months and Cisco paid a massive legal fee to get the permit......now if UK needed specialists and experts they flowed across the border from other EU countries and the UK Customs guy would always sheer at me when clearing through Customs and question always about my work and where I was the same when clearing through Calais.

As UK is aging as it Germany is ...you and Germany need immigrants simple as that or did you all think the current "British/German population" was going to reproduce faster than the aging...never happen.

A recent study done here in Berlin indicated that if they are successful in integrating those that came......payments into social security and retire funds will actually increase not decease and in the tax earning over the long run balances out the current initial costs of the 1.2M refugees.

In the US we have seen something similar...all the illegal Mexicans Trump complains about and all those other illegals...well every year the US Social Security gets roughly 12B USD paid into them without questions asked by them since the illegals always used false SSA numbers to get jobs...and in the end they cheat themselves out of small pension for this but it pays US SS pensioners and the US SSA does not complain in the least.

So when the EU steps up and states member states must do this and that they scream and say...but.....we do not want controls from Brussels ALL still holding out their hands for the massive flowing development funds...

Are there problems, yes there are but nothing that a growing multinational nation state has not seen before and they are easy in the end to fix.....but with a growing populist movement that is getting harder since many are in the EU Parliament....and they do not want the problems fixed because then they have nothing to complain about.

But for the UK it is sad because you have robbed an entire young generation ie those from 14-18 who saw the EU as their future--for jobs, travel, education etc.....that disappointment will never be overcome by any future UK government.

And the break up will be hard and the UK will pay for being the first one as the EU founders want to show the others that talk about leaving just how hard it will be on them.

Today here in Germany....the German FM stated "we will not allow anyone".....anyone meaning the UK tak Europe away from us....

So in the end for a coming decade of recession and slow growth if at all....for losing a truly massive amount of "free funding" for the coming decades.....for losing massive amounts of funding for research/education. losing the freedom of movement for both healthcare, jobs and travel......over 40 years of poor UK political central governance.....

Was it in the end really worth it.....sadly not....

[OUTLAW 09]

Remain voters furious at Brexit-backtrackers who regret EU Leave result
http://huff.to/28S95Z4

What is now interesting is a number of things tied to the concept of outright lying, disinformation by those leading the Leave movement especially UKIP which claimed they would immediately begin spending 350M Pounds a "week" on the NHS and then in interviews after the vote quietly stated yes we lied...

To leave leaders stating the various regions of UK would not be losing the EU funding flows an if they did then the UK government would pick up the slack and the UK government has no money for that......

FOLLOWED by a large number of the UK MSM print media basically lying about the EU, raving untrue stories about immigrants, what goes on in the EU and how bad the EU was beating up on UK......AND the really big story....'we are being ruled in Brussels and we want our own government back" which they always had the last time I checked as the EU did not eliminate nation states and their governments........only to be disproved as basic lying....

Disinformation is just another form of info warfare.....The Sun is telling its readers how badly Brexit affects them, after telling them to vote for it. (Via Alex Merkin)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/1335107/holidays-wages-and-mobile-phone-calls-how-leaving-the-eu-will-affect-your-wallet/ …

Ironic that UK millenmials, stereotyped as lazy, entitled and whiny, are likely to have weathered two major recessions by their 30s.

[OUTLAW 09]

This deserves to go viral. The point about populism is that it is popular until it gets elected.
https://shar.es/1JLkwD via @digiday

My home town of Newcastle. This afternoon. I feel like I am back in the 1980s.

Some #Brexit trollers appears to believe that vote means EU has to accept their terms for new deal. Don't think so, other peoples in EU too.

Brexit crisis tops off rough stretch in Obama's push for legacy
http://reut.rs/28Y5kBG

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh my! Looks like Scotland and Northern Ireland may have a veto on #Brexit process - p 19
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf …

[OUTLAW 09]

Not sure why immigration was an issue in the UK vote......

"Mass immigration" ...
The United Kingdom took 5.500 refugees from #Syria.
Germany took 305.000 since 2015.

BREAKING - Germany says six EU founding states want #Brexit to start 'as soon as possible' - @AFP

[OUTLAW 09]

The way the German MSM Bild's worldview changed since 1996 and the Daily Mail's hasn't says a lot about differences between German and UK political culture

Exclusive: Tata Steel bidders including billionaire tycoon Wilbur Ross get cold feet over UK's decision to leave EU.
http://goo.gl/IwRJww

'Leave' vote in #Brexit referendum was strongest in regions most economically dependent on EU

.@andrewmichta is spot-on that #Brexit will make Europe more inward-looking - unhelpful for US.
http://wp.me/p4ja0Z-Adv

UK already not part of Euro and Schengen and mentally absent for years, don't see much changing with Brexit.

[davidbfpo]

Outlaw09 cited in part:
Not sure why immigration was an issue in the UK vote......

Immigration has long been an issue for the public to mutter about and sometimes has resulted in significant minority votes for extremist / nationalist parties - today UKIP, before them the BNP. The main political parties have simply ignored the discontent, anxiety and hostility.

We now know that Tony Blair's government quietly enabled significant immigration, from outside the EU - I do not have the figures or sources to hand, but a Google search will find them.

Then the initial restrictions on the 'new' EU nations coming to the UK were changed. Originally entry was permitted if employment had been found; the change enabled entry to search for employment.

In the last decade, maybe slightly more two million new jobs were taken by immigrants, out of IIRC three million jobs and whilst official unemployment figures show a reduction there is little sign of that in many places - especially outside London and the South East.

Yes, we have a problem with getting UK nationals to work, especially if the work is dirty, hard, involves long hours and the pay is low (even if the minimum wage has gone up). That is not a unique UK problem.

Resentment over "immigrants taking our jobs" and possibly depressing wages has become more vocal of late - before the EU campaign. As the referendum results suggest Exit support was highest in English areas with extensive new immigration, often where food processing is the biggest employer and those who fear immigrants are coming.

Add in the refugee crisis in the Mediterranean and it is easy to see how some parts of the Exit campaign exploited the fears and realities of immigration. Yes, very few Syrian refugees have made it here, but everyone knows there are thousands of migrants @ Calais mainly trying every day to enter.

Do not think immigration is a whites only issue, it is not and a good number of the "settled" immigrant communities, such as those from South Asia, also have concerns - especially as family reunions are harder to get permission for.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears Merkel is willing to have continued economic turmoil until UK leaves..in the end that hurts not helps the Euro.....

Merkel sees no need to rush Britain into quick EU divorce
http://reut.rs/294nZt7

In an interview today in Sky a Brit business lawyer stated even the Brit/EU/US businesses want a date to work against.....not uncertainy....

[davidbfpo]

Try this passage to illustrate why immigration mattered:
In Barking last week I watched this doughty victor over the BNP (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jul/21/margaret-hodge-interview-labour-mp) confront lifelong Labour voters, who would not listen. They had seen good car industry jobs replaced with warehouse work, zero hours contracts and insecurity. But what they hated most was the sudden cultural change with migrants arriving in large numbers in a short time.
(Ends) Denying those voters a voice helps explain why those anti-EU, anti-foreigner emotions erupted so disastrously on Thursday.Link:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/jeremy-corbyn-referedum-campaign

Blair and immigration:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3466499/Conman-betrayed-Britain-immigration-utterly-amoral-PM-led-conspiracy-let-MILLIONS-migrants-breaking-rules-deceiving-public.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw09 cited in part:

Immigration has long been an issue for the public to mutter about and sometimes has resulted in significant minority votes for extremist / nationalist parties - today UKIP, before them the BNP. The main political parties have simply ignored the discontent, anxiety and hostility.

We now know that Tony Blair's government quietly enabled significant immigration, from outside the EU - I do not have the figures or sources to hand, but a Google search will find them.

Then the initial restrictions on the 'new' EU nations coming to the UK were changed. Originally entry was permitted if employment had been found; the change enabled entry to search for employment.

In the last decade, maybe slightly more two million new jobs were taken by immigrants, out of IIRC three million jobs and whilst official unemployment figures show a reduction there is little sign of that in many places - especially outside London and the South East.

Yes, we have a problem with getting UK nationals to work, especially if the work is dirty, hard, involves long hours and the pay is low (even if the minimum wage has gone up). That is not a unique UK problem.

Resentment over "immigrants taking our jobs" and possibly depressing wages has become more vocal of late - before the EU campaign. As the referendum results suggest Exit support was highest in English areas with extensive new immigration, often where food processing is the biggest employer and those who fear immigrants are coming.

Add in the refugee crisis in the Mediterranean and it is easy to see how some parts of the Exit campaign exploited the fears and realities of immigration. Yes, very few Syrian refugees have made it here, but everyone knows there are thousands of migrants @ Calais mainly trying every day to enter.

Do not think immigration is a whites only issue, it is not and a good number of the "settled" immigrant communities, such as those from South Asia, also have concerns - especially as family reunions are harder to get permission for.

David....

BUT this is what is not understood in Europe...UK is not part and parcel of “the Schengen Agreement” zone thus the so called "free movement of EU citizens" does not apply to UK...ALL the while UK citizens take advantage of Schengen to travel, work and reside in 26 different EU countries these days....does not quite sound right does it as it appears UK wants to eat the cake but refuses to provide the flour for the cake? ANd any outside the 26 countries coming in must have a Schengen visa thus would have been stopped in say Dover, Heathrow or Calais...

BUT THEN this
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/10/10-truths-about-europes-refugee-crisis


British ministers including Theresa May and Philip Hammond have made hair-raising claims about the dangers of migrants entering the country. But do the facts bear them out?

There are countries with social infrastructure at breaking point because of the refugee crisis – but they aren’t in Europe. The most obvious example is Lebanon, which houses 1.2 million Syrian refugees within a total population of roughly 4.5 million. To put that in context, a country that is more than 100 times smaller than the EU has already taken in more than 50 times as many refugees as the EU will even consider resettling in the future. Lebanon has a refugee crisis. Europe – and, in particular, Britain – does not.

£36.95
Many claim that Britain is a coveted destination for migrants because of its generous benefits system. Aside from the reality that most migrants have little prior knowledge of the exact nature of each European country’s asylum system, it is not true that the UK is particularly beneficent. Each asylum seeker in Britain gets a meagre £36.95 to live on (and they are not usually allowed to work to supplement this sum). In France, whose policies are supposedly driving up the numbers at Calais, migrants actually receive substantially more. According to the Asylum Information Database, asylum seekers in France receive up to £56.62 a week. Germany and Sweden – the two most popular migrant destinations – pay out £35.21 and £36.84 a week respectively, only fractionally less than Britain.

50%
In the dog-whistle rhetoric of Hammond and Theresa May, the archetypal contemporary migrant in Europe is from Africa. But again, that’s not true. This year, according to UN figures, 50% alone are from two non-African countries: Syria (38%) and Afghanistan (12%). When migrants from Pakistan, Iraq and Iran are added into the equation, it becomes clear that the number of African migrants is significantly less than half. Even so, as discussed above, many of them – especially those from Eritrea, Darfur, and Somalia – have legitimate claims to refugee status.

76,439
Despite the hysteria, the number of refugees in the UK has actually fallen by 76,439 since 2011. That’s according to Britain’s Refugee Council, which crunched the numbers gleaned from UN data and found that the number of refugees in the UK fell from 193,600 to 117,161 in the past four years. By comparison, the proportion of refugees housed by developing countries in the past 10 years has risen, according to the UN, from 70% to 86%. Britain could be doing far more


Sorry but I cannot find any EU decisions that forces UK to take any and all immigrants so is really the so called immigrant problem of the UK actually one that the UK in handling their own immigrant policies have been doing it poorly and then blaming the EU???

Maybe it is not known inside the UK by many but even the EU put restrictions on the newer members on their Schengen concept and limited "freedom of movement" for countries like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria for up to four or five years...so to argue UK was going to be overrun is again simply a smokescreen.

BTW...had then the receiving UK communities applied for the EU Rural or Low Income Development Funds...they could have funded additional schools, hospitals and other local community improvements.....without ....having to burden the UK taxpayer as the rest of EU is currently doing.

Sounds like to me the UK does after 40 odd years...not know how to play the EU funding games...but that is not a problem of the EU......

IF we go back before the EU...the UK has always had a problem with immigration starting with passing out UK passports to those residing in the British colonies/British Commonwealth and THEN restricting them to come to the UK even with valid UK Passports so this so called immigrant problem has been there for literally years before the EU.

So to now argue it is the "fault" of the EU is a tad disingenuous.......

Another argument by Leave was that by not having to pay into EU will mean more money back to UK residents...BUT Moodys has been saying whatever the savings will be that will be eaten up by a far weaker public finances and less money due to the drop in the Pound.

The other argument of Leave was EU red tape is killing investment and new businesses.....BUT UK is second in OCED countries on investment and new businesses and trade...the top position is the Dutch...so evidently the so called red tape of the EU did not seem to hinder neither the UK and the Netherlands ......in the top OCED ten positions EU countries made up five......

[davidbfpo]

Citing Outlaw09 in part:
BUT this is what is not understood in Europe...UK is not part and parcel of “the Schengen Agreement” zone thus the so called "free movement of EU citizens" does not apply to UK...ALL the while UK citizens take advantage of Schengen to travel, work and reside in 26 different EU countries these days....does not quite sound right does it as it appears UK wants to eat the cake but refuses to provide the flour for the cake??.

The Schengen Zone enables cross-border travel without producing a passport (or other accepted ID). The UK opted out of the Schengen Agreement (along with Ireland IRRC) and requires EU nationals produce a passport upon arrival - I'd call that free movement with a condition.

The UK in theory can refuse entry, but I understand that is rarely exercised. It can also deport EU nationals on limited grounds.

[OUTLAW 09]

I would argue that immigration was a seriously used smokescreen BUT that this was a vote for and against globalization...ie the 18000 pound a year salary voted against and those of 30K voted for remaining in.....

The highest leave came from the low income areas vs areas with more income ....

Amazingly those that had a passport voted to remain and those that did not have one voted to leave...........

And naturally the youth vote went for and the over 65 went to leave....so there was a generational split as well...problematic was getting that youth vote out which failed badly and now they are complaining but have no one than themselves to blame.....

What broke the model was Scotland and N.Ireland which are basically low income but had a high view of the EU because I think they have played well the EU Rural and Low Income Development Fund and have well established and strong EU company employers in their regions..it is almost like they developed a European mindset say vs. Cornwall that gets a ton of EU funding but voted to get out.....which lacked an EU identify......

[davidbfpo]

Outlaw09 in part:
And naturally the youth vote went for and the over 65 went to leave....so there was a generational split as well...problematic was getting that youth vote out which failed badly and now they are complaining but have no one than themselves to blame.....

It helps to quantify the youth vote and from Twitter:
Those who say the elderly have "robbed" young people of their future might instead rebuke the 64% of 18-24yr-olds who didn't bother voting.

How traditional Labour seats voted:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClzdAR2WIAEJYOY.jpg

[OUTLAW 09]

Brexit & role disinformation by the British media (curved bananas etc), an analysis.
https://twitter.com/SpecGhost/status/746553046386229248 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Shocking if true: Jeremy Corbyn Allies ‘Sabotaged’ Labour’s In EU ref Campaign, Critics Claim
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-allies-sabotaged-labour-in-campaign-and-fuelled-brexit_uk_576eb1b5e4b0d2571149bb1f …

[OUTLAW 09]

1st time in UK history: PM won't be chosen by gen'l election or MPs but by party activists
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-cameron-resigns-after-brexit-referendum-next-prime-minister-will-be-chosen-by-party-activists-2016-6?r=UK&IR=T …

So UK leaves and kneecapped themselves now a internal party coup.....a new PM with new election.
1st time in UK history: PM won't be chosen by gen'l election or MPs but by party activists
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-cameron-resigns-after-brexit-referendum-next-prime-minister-will-be-chosen-by-party-activists-2016-6?r=UK&IR=T …

Well this is pretty huge. Kezia Dugdale says Scottish Labour "will consider all options" going forward ie support for independence.

Brexit: a surge in inquiries about Irish passports from people in London who want to remain citizens of EU country.

[OUTLAW 09]

This UK MSM pushed the Leave hard and then this.......

Cards reading 'go home scum' are 'posted through Polish doors'
http://dailym.ai/28TWvsk via @MailOnline

BUT WAIT...I thought Polish pilots flew with the Brits over England in WW2......

Welsh Muslim told 'pack bags, go home' after campaigning for Remain #Brexit Via @astroehlein
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-updates-remain-twitter-muslim-racist-abuse-a7101491.html …

Just seen a van full of blokes drive past young Muslim girls shouting from the window "Out Out Out!" Horrible. #Brockley #London

“Boris Johnson didn’t think that they’d win” @Anna_Soubry tells @krishgm what she thinks was behind Boris's campaign
https://youtu.be/ERHfuzyic8M

[OUTLAW 09]

Scathing critique of the gap between what Vote Leave promised and what they will actually do. #EUref
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars?CMP=share_btn_tw …

Saturday 25 June 2016 18.05 BST Last modified on Saturday 25 June 2016 18.27 BST



Where was the champagne at the Vote Leave headquarters? The happy tears and whoops of joy? If you believed Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Brexit vote was a moment of national liberation, a day that Nigel Farage said our grateful children would celebrate with an annual bank holiday.

Johnson and Gove had every reason to celebrate. The referendum campaign showed the only arguments that matter now in England are on the right. With the Labour leadership absent without leave and the Liberal Democrats and Greens struggling to be heard, the debate was between David Cameron and George Osborne, defending the status quo, and the radical right, demanding its destruction. Johnson and Gove won a dizzying victory with the potential to change every aspect of national life, from workers’ rights to environmental protection.

Yet they gazed at the press with coffin-lid faces and wept over the prime minister they had destroyed. David Cameron was “brave and principled”, intoned Johnson. “A great prime minister”, muttered Gove. Like Goneril and Regan competing to offer false compliments to Lear, they covered the leader they had doomed with hypocritical praise. No one whoops at a funeral, especially not mourners who are glad to see the back of the deceased. But I saw something beyond hypocrisy in those frozen faces: the fear of journalists who have been found out.

The media do not damn themselves, so I am speaking out of turn when I say that if you think rule by professional politicians is bad wait until journalist politicians take over. Johnson and Gove are the worst journalist politicians you can imagine: pundits who have prospered by treating public life as a game. Here is how they play it. They grab media attention by blaring out a big, dramatic thought. An institution is failing? Close it. A public figure blunders? Sack him. They move from journalism to politics, but carry on as before. When presented with a bureaucratic EU that sends us too many immigrants, they say the answer is simple, as media answers must be. Leave. Now. Then all will be well.

Boris Johnson. Liar, conman – and prime minister?

Johnson and Gove carried with them a second feature of unscrupulous journalism: the contempt for practical questions. Never has a revolution in Britain’s position in the world been advocated with such carelessness. The Leave campaign has no plan. And that is not just because there was a shamefully under-explored division between the bulk of Brexit voters who wanted the strong welfare state and solid communities of their youth and the leaders of the campaign who wanted Britain to become an offshore tax haven. Vote Leave did not know how to resolve difficulties with Scotland, Ireland, the refugee camp at Calais, and a thousand other problems, and did not want to know either.

It responded to all who predicted the chaos now engulfing us like an unscrupulous pundit who knows that his living depends on shutting up the experts who gainsay him. For why put the pundit on air, why pay him a penny, if experts can show that everything he says is windy nonsense? The worst journalists, editors and broadcasters know their audiences want entertainment, not expertise. If you doubt me, ask when you last saw panellists on Question Time who knew what they were talking about.

Naturally, Michael Gove, former Times columnist, responded to the thousands of economists who warned he was taking an extraordinary risk with the sneer that will follow him to his grave: “People in this country have had enough of experts.” He’s being saying the same for years.

If sneers won’t work, the worst journalists lie. The Times fired Johnson for lying to its readers. Michael Howard fired Johnson for lying to him. When he’s cornered, Johnson accuses others of his own vices, as unscrupulous journalists always do. Those who question him are the true liars, he blusters, whose testimony cannot be trusted because, as he falsely said of the impeccably honest chairman of the UK Statistics Authority, they are “stooges”.

The Vote Leave campaign followed the tactics of the sleazy columnist to the letter. First, it came out with the big, bold solution: leave. Then it dismissed all who raised well-founded worries with “the country is sick of experts”. Then, like Johnson the journalist, it lied.

On Friday, Johnson and Dan Hannan said that in all probability the number of foreigners coming here won’t fall

I am not going to be over-dainty about mendacity. Politicians, including Remain politicians lie, as do the rest of us. But not since Suez has the nation’s fate been decided by politicians who knowingly made a straight, shameless, incontrovertible lie the first plank of their campaign. Vote Leave assured the electorate it would reclaim a supposed £350m Brussels takes from us each week. They knew it was a lie. Between them, they promised to spend £111bn on the NHS, cuts to VAT and council tax, higher pensions, a better transport system and replacements for the EU subsidies to the arts, science, farmers and deprived regions. When boring experts said that, far from being rich, we would face a £40bn hole in our public finances, Vote Leave knew how to fight back. In Johnsonian fashion, it said that the truth tellers were corrupt liars in Brussels’ pocket.

Now they have won and what Kipling said of the demagogues of his age applies to Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage.

I could not dig; I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?

The real division in Britain is not between London and the north, Scotland and Wales or the old and young, but between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded. What tale will serve them now? On Thursday, they won by promising cuts in immigration. On Friday, Johnson and the Eurosceptic ideologue Dan Hannan said that in all probability the number of foreigners coming here won’t fall. On Thursday, they promised the economy would boom. By Friday, the pound was at a 30-year low and Daily Mail readers holidaying abroad were learning not to believe what they read in the papers. On Thursday, they promised £350m extra a week for the NHS. On Friday, it turns out there are “no guarantees”.

If we could only find a halfway competent opposition, the very populist forces they have exploited and misled so grievously would turn on them. The fear in their eyes shows that they know it.


Wes Streeting MP
✔ @wesstreeting I asked the Government what preparations were being made for Brexit. Was told: none. I am shocked that this now appears to be true

"The Times fired Johnson for lying to its readers. Michael Howard fired Johnson for lying to him."

[Azor]

I would agree with David's rationale for leaving but also agree with Outlaw's view on the immigration file. Here is what I wrote elsewhere:

"The United Kingdom's immigration troubles are primarily the result of its post-war intake of Commonwealth citizens, its welcoming approach to migrants and refugees and its lack of immigration enforcement. Enoch Powell's "Rivers of Blood" speech happened when Poland and Romania were still members of the CMEA and Warsaw Pact...

2001 to 2011 is a key period in UK immigration history. During that time, the number of Polish residents surged by some 10 times. However, in 2010, Eurostat observed that of the UK's 11.30% foreign-born residents, 68% were non-EU. In 2014, the UK's ONS observed that some 1.1 million UK foreign-born residents were from the "new" EU countries of Poland, Romania and Lithuania, compared to more than 2.1 million from the Commonwealth in South Asia and Africa, even decades after de-colonization. Yet the number of "new" EU residents is actually down 1/3 from its peak around 2004-2007. Moreover, between 2001 and 2011, the White population of the UK grew by 1.81%, compared to 75% for the non-White population (ONS). Lastly, the focus on the Poles is curious given that the UK actively recruited Polish laborers after both world wars.

This data tells us a few things:

1. There is emigration by White Britons from the UK (typically to Canada, Australia or New Zealand)

2. EU citizens from East-Central Europe are barely keeping up with the pace of emigration from the UK and have a tendency to return home or leave the UK based upon economic conditions

3. If non-British EU citizens were all expelled from the UK, the British population would actually have a much higher percentage of visible minorities

4. Not only are Asian and African Commonwealth citizens still arriving in the UK in large numbers, but they are more likely to stay than EU citizens, and continue to outnumber EU residents by 2:1

5. Brexit will not necessarily impact Commonwealth immigration or refugee policy

6. The EU has poorly handled the flow of non-EU migrants and refugees, but then again, the UK has accepted them in the past and continues to do so

7. As with Sweden and Germany, migrants are drawn to the UK not because of its EU membership but because of its lax policies and generous benefits which are national and not supranational in nature

8. Poland's economy is doing relatively well, yet Poland is refusing to settle more than a token number of refugees and is not attractive to the denizens of Calais' "jungle".."

[OUTLAW 09]

The mayor of Calais already demanding the scrapping of the agreement that keeps migrants in Calais rather than Dover. Well, we were warned.

[OUTLAW 09]

Really really really worth reading.......

Important by @CER_Grant on how unscrupulous Leave outmanoeuvred somewhat confused Leave. He said it before the vote. https://www.cer.org.uk/insights/how-leave-outgunned-remain-battle-five-ms

Explains a lot of what I have been posting here.......

[davidbfpo]

Citing Azor in one tiny part:
There is emigration by White Britons from the UK (typically to Canada, Australia or New Zealand)

There has been a steady exit for many years now of white Britons, usually those with a ready skill needed abroad. A smaller number of ethnic minority Britons have gone too. Most simply see elsewhere as offering better life chances.

Their destinations are far wider than the 'old' Commonwealth, although some pass the entry procedures. For example 200-250k Brits reside in the Gulf states. Considerable number of English teachers are scattered across the world. Of the two million UK citizens living in the EU (cited this week), one million are working.

[davidbfpo]

Many of the recent press reporting is based on Lord Ashcroft's polling, which starts with IMHO a very small sample size:
The UK has voted to leave the European Union. On referendum day I surveyed 12,369 people after they had voted to help explain the result – who voted for which outcome, and what lay behind their decision.
Link with far more:http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

[Granite_State]

A cri de coeur from one of those young, highly educated voters who represent Progress and so deserved to win:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/opinion/sunday/hell-is-other-britons.html?_r=0

[Firn]

Everybody has obviously his opinion and his vote and who I am to not respect the specific decision. What bothers me greatly is:

1. Lies, yes lies, played such an important part for the Leave campaigns concerning the economic consequences.

As an Italian I'm used to that, we elected Mr. Lie four times, but it is always tough to stomach them.

2. The Irish questions was hardly if at all mentioned or debated

It's great that peace made the latter less urgent but to me that is rather telling that as in many other cases the good of the EU membership was just mentally skipped. The Irish Times article (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/english-nationalists-have-placed-a-bomb-under-peace-process-1.2700068?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpo litics%2Fenglish-nationalists-have-placed-a-bomb-under-peace-process-1.2700068) aptly describes part of the problem, while in the podcast (https://soundcloud.com/irishtimes-world) some of importance of the EU in the peace process was underlined.

3. The risk of Scotland leaving the UK was rarely discussed by the Leave campaign, which is in itself quite ironic.

There is no doubt that this decision does increase it's probability. As we speak the SNP prepares for a second referendum and wants talks with the EU. Why was this effect hardly discussed in the media?

P.S: The last graph (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-7-graphs-that-explain-how-brexit-won-eu-explained-a7101676.html) with 'Leave' 7 out of 10 on the side of 'don't think the vote mattered much' is deeply disturbing, especially when compared to 1 in 4 of 'Remain'. Of course the expectations impacts that a lot but it meshes to some degree with a good amount of people deciding to give the gov a kick (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiZHnHzAwys).

P.P.S: VOXEU (http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-economists-brexit-manage-defy-laws-gravity) has lots of good takes on the economic effects and UK economic history. Keep in mind that Britain entered the European comunity after slipping from the richest economy to under-average performer. Within it the UK recovered and reversed economic course.

[OUTLAW 09]

Citing Outlaw09 in part:

The Schengen Zone enables cross-border travel without producing a passport (or other accepted ID). The UK opted out of the Schengen Agreement (along with Ireland IRRC) and requires EU nationals produce a passport upon arrival - I'd call that free movement with a condition.

The UK in theory can refuse entry, but I understand that is rarely exercised. It can also deport EU nationals on limited grounds.

David....I keep going back to the simple fact immigration is the smokescreen used by UKIP, the BNP and yes even the Conservatives in the form of Boris the "terrible"....

BUT in the end it is all about globalization......there was a comment recently that stated "markets do not know what a nation state is"...and if one thinks really long and hard..it is all about globalization.....

You comments on the auto factory workers is exactly that is being seen by the US autoworkers and yes I hate to say this but also seen in the GDR as early as 1989/1990---in my eyes "globalization" has been on a subtle move for a lot longer than we give it credit....

Reference Schengen.....the 300K or so Polish people residing in UK is balanced by how many Brits working, studying, touring, living on pensions in the rest of the EU.....more than outweighs the estimated 3M EU workers currently inside UK.

Just look at the sheer numbers of Brits currently living and working for the EU and Brit companies in say Brussels..just check hoe many evening flights there are between Brussels and London for the Brit commuter.

An interesting point was made last night that the majority voters for Leave when looking at education had little to no education levels and those that had a higher education level voted for Remain.

Education of the working class and or the non education of the working class goes to the heart of globalization if one is serious about a discussion on it.

Take as the example your auto workers now working in a warehouse...had they been trained in a specialized field say computer driven milling and lathing they could be now in Berlin where there is over 400 open positions for that skill set with English as a core requirement...why for export. English is de facto a needed skill set.

There is on the German job search sites in over 100 employment fields over 2000 plus open jobs where English is the primary skill being demanded on any given day.

Work is out there but one must be willing to move and adapt...that was the concept behind Schengen....and amazingly English is the common determinant.

Question is though is the older generation ready to pack up and move vs say the younger generation that sees no problem with doing that if necessary.

That was clearly seen in how the two generations voted...

[OUTLAW 09]

Everybody has obviously his opinion and his vote and who I am to not respect the specific decision. What bothers me greatly is:

1. Lies, yes lies, played such an important part for the Leave campaigns concerning the economic consequences.

As an Italian I'm used to that, we elected Mr. Lie four times, but it is always tough to stomach them.

2. The Irish questions was hardly if at all mentioned or debated

It's great that peace made the latter less urgent but to me that is rather telling that as in many other cases the good of the EU membership was just mentally skipped. The Irish Times article (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/english-nationalists-have-placed-a-bomb-under-peace-process-1.2700068?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpo litics%2Fenglish-nationalists-have-placed-a-bomb-under-peace-process-1.2700068) aptly describes part of the problem, while in the podcast (https://soundcloud.com/irishtimes-world) some of importance of the EU in the peace process was underlined.

3. The risk of Scotland leaving the UK was rarely discussed by the Leave campaign, which is in itself quite ironic.

There is no doubt that this decision does increase it's probability. As we speak the SNP prepares for a second referendum and wants talks with the EU. Why was this effect hardly discussed in the media?

P.S: The last graph (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-7-graphs-that-explain-how-brexit-won-eu-explained-a7101676.html) with 'Leave' 7 out of 10 on the side of 'don't think the vote mattered much' is deeply disturbing, especially when compared to 1 in 4 of 'Remain'. Of course the expectations impacts that a lot but it meshes to some degree with a good amount of people deciding to give the gov a kick (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiZHnHzAwys).

P.P.S: VOXEU (http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-economists-brexit-manage-defy-laws-gravity) has lots of good takes on the economic effects and UK economic history. Keep in mind that Britain entered the European comunity after slipping from the richest economy to under-average performer. Within it the UK recovered and reversed economic course.

Firn...the use of disinformation in this vote was amazingly similar to that currently used by Russia and Putin....and that was and still is even in this morning in the UK somehow not being discussed.

Social media open source analysis caught the similarity literally months ago but somehow they were not even looked at by UK MSM....even down to pointing who was driving it and their messaging/narratives....

Why was it being ignored....it was coming from major UK MSM itself....the question is why and how was it paid for it and where did the money come from ie from which writers and their ties to whom????

Disinformation is a powerful voice inside a "populist movement"....just look at Trump....

[OUTLAW 09]

Tory Party heading for irrevocable split. Labour Party in meltdown. Scotland sprinting for the exit. N.Ireland is a question.

And the Pound and FTSE again tomorrow.....??

This is all going very well so far.

But hey at least we voted for democratic chaos....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian non linear warfare is now hard at work......

Russian TV propaganda spreads lies: "Finland thinks to exit from EU"
https://twitter.com/rentvchannel/status/746785835471745028 …

[OUTLAW 09]

David....I keep going back to the simple fact immigration is the smokescreen used by UKIP, the BNP and yes even the Conservatives in the form of Boris the "terrible"....

BUT in the end it is all about globalization......there was a comment recently that stated "markets do not know what a nation state is"...and if one thinks really long and hard..it is all about globalization.....

You comments on the auto factory workers is exactly that is being seen by the US autoworkers and yes I hate to say this but also seen in the GDR as early as 1989/1990---in my eyes "globalization" has been on a subtle move for a lot longer than we give it credit....

Reference Schengen.....the 300K or so Polish people residing in UK is balanced by how many Brits working, studying, touring, living on pensions in the rest of the EU.....more than outweighs the estimated 3M EU workers currently inside UK.

Just look at the sheer numbers of Brits currently living and working for the EU and Brit companies in say Brussels..just check hoe many evening flights there are between Brussels and London for the Brit commuter.

An interesting point was made last night that the majority voters for Leave when looking at education had little to no education levels and those that had a higher education level voted for Remain.

Education of the working class and or the non education of the working class goes to the heart of globalization if one is serious about a discussion on it.

Take as the example your auto workers now working in a warehouse...had they been trained in a specialized field say computer driven milling and lathing they could be now in Berlin where there is over 400 open positions for that skill set with English as a core requirement...why for export. English is de facto a needed skill set.

There is on the German job search sites in over 100 employment fields over 2000 plus open jobs where English is the primary skill being demanded on any given day.

Work is out there but one must be willing to move and adapt...that was the concept behind Schengen....and amazingly English is the common determinant.

Question is though is the older generation ready to pack up and move vs say the younger generation that sees no problem with doing that if necessary.

That was clearly seen in how the two generations voted...

The latent racism unleashed in this vote can in fact be directly connected to UKIP, BNP, Labour and the Conservatives AND a wide spectrum of the UK press.....

Am hearing that the Polish Centre in Hammersmith has been smeared with "Go Home". This is an unspeakable crime and is indescribably awful.
On Friday my niece was on a field trip. A man shouted at school girls: "So is this a **** Islam fishing group?! Where's the white people?"

One photo the UK citizens really need to revisit......
Polish immigrants in Britain... H/t @ingeniarius08

[OUTLAW 09]

UKIP leader is now seriously running from his own statements and their very own PR buses that had this splashed all over them...and what he stated in hsi speeches....

Nigel Farage: "Nobody said that we'd spend the £350million a week on the NHS"

One of those plastered campaign posters from UKIP.......

"Let's give our NHS 350M Pounds that we give EU weekly"

Sounds like a commitment to me.......

So was he lying or telling the truth and yet he claims to speak for UK....

[OUTLAW 09]

Posted this yesterday and it is firming up as a valid Scottish political move as the EU was buried in the Good Friday agreements as it was buried inside the Scottish and Walsh devolution agreements....appears that all three have actually a veto voice in Parliament as the EU membership was the assumed basis for all their agreements.......

Appears Boris the "terrible", UKIP, BNP. Labour and especially Cameron simply forgot to check their own agreements.....

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says Holyrood could effectively block UK's exit from the EU by vetoing it
http://bbc.in/29bGdrJ

Tend to believe the Scots definitely got UK constitutional advice before they went public with this.....

[OUTLAW 09]

The #EU will treat Britain like Greece. A superb post mortem by @mattholehouse in @Telegraph #Brexit http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/the-eu-will-treat-britain-like-greece/ …

PROBABLY one of the best takes on the EU views towards UK and the EU comin actions which will be brutal for UK that I have seen written in the last few days AND it does not bode well for UK citizens nor their economy nor they standing in the world of global politics of which they have actually thrown themselves out of....

[OUTLAW 09]

BBC News - Corbyn office 'sabotaged' EU Remain campaign - sources
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36633238 …

This does not surprise me in the least as he was first against the EU and then lukewarm for the EU BUT foremost he is a old line UK leftist who basically out of ideological reasons has always been against the EU....

Many openly questioned his actions during the campaign but no one wanted to actually say then that he in fact was sabotaging his own words and actions....

If one looks at the way Putin has been playing the right and left segments of the EU ever since 2006 with money and info warfare help...Putin has been driving Eurospectic groups from both political spectrums to achieve exactly what this vote achieved and it did not cost him a war and or a single bullet.....it was done legally and democratically.....the destruction of the EU as a viable economic and political entity

Allowing Russia to fulfill it's dream of an free trade economic zone from Portugal to Russian Far East....under Russian influence.....openly stated also since 2006...only the EU stood in the way backed by the US.....
.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Immigration of the London City now starting to go in the other direction..was predicted to happen before the vote but "declared rubbish" by Boris "the terrible"....and UKIP.......as were all other expert statements called "rubbish"....by both.

HSBC to move 1000 jobs to Paris when #UK will leave #EU #Brexit
http://economie.hotnews.ro/stiri-finante_banci-21110186-hsbc-muta-circa-1-000-joburi-paris-daca-marea-britanie-paraseste-piata-unica-europeana.htm
…

The City is expected to lose over 100,000 banking and investment jobs over the next two years as will the City lose the right to buy and sell EU bonds and other EU financial products since they will not be in the EU......Frankfurt, Paris and NYC are rejoicing today.......

Boris "the terrible"...also stated that this was "rubbish" and would never happen.....well it has started.....

[OUTLAW 09]

.@NicolaSturgeon (Scotland) describes events in Westminster as "utter chaos, shambolic and frankly disgraceful"

The petition for a second referendum on the EU, which now has 3m+ supporters, was set up by a Leave campaigner. http://news.sky.com/story/1717815/second-referendum-petition-set-up-by-brexiter …

Britain's elites have been governing a country they wished they had rather than one they have.
http://bit.ly/28SvAwQ

[davidbfpo]

Cited in part:
HSBC to move 1000 jobs to Paris when #UK will leave #EU #Brexit
http://economie.hotnews.ro/stiri-finante_banci-21110186-hsbc-muta-circa-1-000-joburi-paris-daca-marea-britanie-paraseste-piata-unica-europeana.htm

I have doubts that a Rumanian news site would have such a scoop.

[davidbfpo]

I don't recall this theme being strongly mentioned in the campaign, although other words may have been used.

So this commentary in The Guardian is noteworthy:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/26/brexit-is-the-rejection-of-globalisation

A key passage:
This was more than a protest against the career opportunities that never knock and the affordable homes that never get built. It was a protest against the economic model that has been in place for the past three decades.

It is ironic that many of those who have campaigned against TTIP for example and globalisation are generally found on the Left, who mainly voted to Remain.

[OUTLAW 09]

Cited in part:

I have doubts that a Rumanian news site would have such a scoop.

But interestingly enough HSBC has not denied it which they would have if not true.....there have been other banking groups quietly stating before the vote that they would leave as the City will lose the right or "passport" as they call it to trade in EU funds, EU bonds and other EU issued financial products.

That includes the City being the current center of Euro currency trades....that is the reason that Paris and Frankfurt has been wooing those banks....to move.

This article goes to the heart of the coming loss of City finance jobs to either Paris and or Frankfurt....

Comments from French & Dutch Officials suggest loss of passporting: IF true, very damaging for UK economy
http://ner.sagepub.com/content/236/1/31.full.pdf …


Having ‘passporting’ rights to the Single Market and access to the financial infrastructure of the Eurozone is vital to hosting Euro financial markets.

UK losses that passporting right when they leave the EU.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Populist parties are popular until they are elected......then....the sky falls....

[OUTLAW 09]

Germany's No 2 effectively quashing rumours of possibly negotiating "Brexit-lite": single market + some FOM control https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/747075243697668096 …

German views both private and publicly among the local citizens and the German parties pay close attention.....

"If you want the benefits then you must play the game"...meaning if you want schools fund them, if you want jobs then push you government for jobs, if you want job training push your government and presto they find the EU will find the funds.

Example.....where I live which is in the rural edge of Berlin there is a main German Weather Service center (DWD) which has been here since the late 1880s and there is the old center with a lot of historical weather related pieces of equipment and historical documents .....the local community formed a committee approached the EU Rural Fund laid their plans out and got 75% of the estimated construction costs and first three years of operation in order for them to get going as a major weather museum.

Presto....after the initial slow start....it has gained in popularity and is drawing visitors from all over including tourists outside Germany who are interested in weather and climate change and they are carrying themselves financially.

Second example....a small specialized company dealing in the stripping of metal construction products prior to a specialized coating being applied.....which employs 25 locals and pushes a good deal of their products into exports... applied for and got 100% funding for the construction of the actual plant and 70% operational funding to carry them for three years until they got their feet on solid good. Now they are at 40 employees and are carrying themselves very well.

The EU has been good at pushing investment and employment measures for rural development.

So to hear from Leave types that it was about schools, hospitals and other local needed services WHY did not the government push the Eu for more aid in supporting the increasing immigrant stream??

Jeremy Corbyn , the Labour leader, has said that areas that voted most strongly to leave in the EU referendum are “communities that have effectively been abandoned” by economic change and the austerity policies of Britain’s Conservative government.

So why did the Leavers kill the golden goose instead of beating up their own government and why did they "blame" Brussels instead of Whitehall???

[OUTLAW 09]

"Game over" for Boris "the terrible" and those on the Leave side that felt with this mandate they could go back to the EU and renegotiate what they felt Cameron had failed to achieve and then they could have come back and back off of Article 50....

European Union will not make Britain any fresh offers to keep it in the bloc, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel says - Reuters

[OUTLAW 09]

S&P confirms to the FT that UK will lose its final AAA credit rating.

We calculated this would cost the country about £4bn, (before #BlackFriday), in extra interest payments on our debt.

[OUTLAW 09]

EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Disinformation is when a poll can only lead to one outcome. Read more in the DisinfoDigest:
http://eepurl.com/b6YYmf

[OUTLAW 09]

"Endless complications—chaos, in other words—lie ahead."
@TheEconomist
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/06/after-referendum …

[OUTLAW 09]

EU official: NO negotiations on future status of UK before notification of article 50 is sent to Brussels.

EU official: Article 50 can be triggered by a letter to EU Council. Or by a formal oral statement at Council in presence of 27 other leaders

EU official: 27 other member states understand level of political crisis in UK - so they can wait for a while for article 50.

[OUTLAW 09]

Humor out of the UK.......

Asked cat for his actual opinion on EU & he thinks we should repeatedly ask to leave, then when the door opens he just sits there & stares at it

But as always...humor has some reality......does it not??

“It’s not the responsibility of Leave to have a plan for what happens now. There is no plan” says Leave spokesman.

Kind of reminds me of this.....

"When one with honeyed words but evil mind persuades the mob, great woes befall the state." –Euripides

[OUTLAW 09]

KREMLIN's WARFARE TOOLS: #Putin's apologist @SeumasMilne behind "deliberate sabotage" of EU Remain campaign in Brit http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36633238 …


And today, some of the most senior figures in the Labour Party are trying to push their leader out too. There have been concerns about Jeremy Corbyn's performance for months and months. But it was his role, or lack of role, in the campaign to keep the UK in the EU, and his sacking of Hilary Benn in the middle of the night, that has given members of the shadow cabinet the final reasons to quit. Several have already gone; as many as half will be gone by the end of the day, I understand.

And documents passed to the BBC suggest Jeremy Corbyn's office sought to delay and water down the Labour Remain campaign. Sources suggest that they are evidence of "deliberate sabotage".

One email from the leader's office suggests that Mr Corbyn's director of strategy and communications, Seumas Milne, was behind Mr Corbyn's reluctance to take a prominent role in Labour's campaign to keep the UK in the EU. One email, discussing one of the leader's speeches, said it was because of the "hand of Seumas. If he can't kill it, he will water it down so much to hope nobody notices it".

A series of messages dating back to December seen by the BBC shows correspondence between the party leader's office, the Labour Remain campaign and Labour HQ, discussing the European campaign. It shows how a sentence talking about immigration was removed on one occasion and how Mr Milne refused to sign off a letter signed by 200 MPs after it had already been approved.

The documents show concern in Labour HQ and the Labour Remain campaign about Mr Corbyn's commitment to the campaign - one email says: "What is going on here?" Another email from Labour Remain sources to the leader's office complains "there is no EU content here - we agreed to have Europe content in it". Sources say they show the leader's office was reluctant to give full support to the EU campaign and how difficult it was to get Mr Corbyn to take a prominent role.

Mr Corbyn has insisted publicly that he campaigned hard to keep the country in the EU and that he made a number of speeches around the country, and attended many campaigning events. But many shadow cabinet ministers believe his performance in the campaign has shown that he is simply not capable of leading the party. One senior figure told me: "People have just had enough and are embarrassed to be part of it." Jeremy Corbyn's team are adamant that he will stand again for the leadership, and they believe the party's members would back him again.

He has had persuasive and vehement backing from the party's members who he energised last summer. But as the Labour Party reels from Thursday's result, it is not clear that support will be as solid as it was. MPs report that some of their members are contacting them to say they've changed their minds about Mr Corbyn. We'll see. It's possible that within days, both of our two main political parties will be looking for a new leader.

A spokesman for the Labour party said: "The leaks of these emails within the Labour Party are self-evidently politically motivated. This is the action of people who want to de-stabilise the leadership by attempting to demonstrate negative activity in the leader's office.

"The leaks themselves show no such thing, simply demonstrating the views of those whose emails are quoted.

"On the process of letter writing, of course it is normal practice in politics that drafts are amended. Any communications in the name of the Leader of the Labour Party are authorised by the leader's communications team and ultimately by the leader himself .

"Both Jeremy and his team worked hard to deliver his message of remain and reform. Given that the Labour Party was the only party that delivered a majority vote for the remain campaign among its own supporters, the criticisms of Jeremy Corbyn make little sense."

[OUTLAW 09]

Channel 4 News
✔ @Channel4News Scenes of anger and hatred on Britain's streets after Brexit.
Police are investigating multiple hate crime reports.

Mini Huang @minyingh
In the aftermath of #Brexit, neighbours we've never spoken to before confront us with, "Do you even speak English?"

In a year half of these jobs will have gone to other countries, where foreigners are not assaulted in the streets.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Brexit info warfare hard at work.....

When asked if Brexit is beginning of end of the EU, Juncker said ‘No’. But Russian TV claims “he refused to answer" & "ran away" from media

Putin's chief propagandist Dmitri Kiselev is cheering Brexit as beginning of the dissolution of the EU. https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/747131537326546944 …

BUT WAIT.......
BBC: #Soros warns of EU disintegration
http://uatoday.tv/politics/bbc-soros-warns-of-eu-disintegration-679930.html …

[Bill Moore]

I don't recall this theme being strongly mentioned in the campaign, although other words may have been used.

So this commentary in The Guardian is noteworthy:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/26/brexit-is-the-rejection-of-globalisation

A key passage:

It is ironic that many of those who have campaigned against TTIP for example and globalisation are generally found on the Left, who mainly voted to Remain.

David,

Hopefully cooler heads will prevail. There will be a painful adjustment, not only in Europe, but globally; however, I think it is possible the UK will be better off in the long run. Other countries, to include France and Italy are reportedly considering leaving also. When it comes to economics, the experts have a poor track record. The EU by most accounts has weakened NATO, so from a collective security aspect little is lost there,

Not the same, but most predicted the colonies would fail when we separated from England. The world doesn't stand still, it changes continuously.

[OUTLAW 09]

Listening to "Question Time" at BBC One. Many people in the audience doesn't seem to understand the enormous loss #Brexit means for them.

'It is no accident that Nigel Farage has long been a regular on the Kremlin-owned propaganda network Russia Today.' https://www.buzzfeed.com/miriamelder/the-big-winner-of-brexit-is-vladimir-putin?utm_term=.td6vodqdX4#.tg9PLGNGgO …

MORE humor......
Kremlin announces closure of airspace over #Moscow due to five-hour-long #Brexit celebration fireworks

[OUTLAW 09]

"There is no plan" London Mayor.....
@SkyNews
http://news.sky.com/video/1717859/islam-there-is-no-brexit-plan …

UKIP leader caught in his Leave lies ........
Actually, Farage said that the UK spends 385m per week on the EU, according to this:
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/26/footage-shows-nigel-farage-pledging-eu-money-to-nhs-before-he-distanced-himself-from-the-claim-5967094/ …

Leader of Leave movement calls campaign promise a “mistake” hours after #Brexit
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article85806767.html#storylink=cpy …

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
After a member of Labour Shadow Cabinet was fired last night, seven more have resigned this morning. Coup underway.
http://bit.ly/292r6TO

[OUTLAW 09]

KREMLIN's WARFARE TOOLS: #Putin's apologist @SeumasMilne behind "deliberate sabotage" of EU Remain campaign in Brit http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36633238 …

Photograph shows Jeremy Corbyn's pro-#Kremlin spin chief held in #Putin's iron grip at #propaganda summit https://twitter.com/LaurinaviciusM/status/747099937075138560 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Polish Ambassador to the UK calls on British politicians to condemn post-ref hate-motivated attacks on migrants https://twitter.com/witoldsobkow/status/747135479112433664 …

108 #migrant splashes from @daily_express since Romania and Bulgaria joined in Jan 2014

[OUTLAW 09]

David...this is the EU financial exit we will start seeing and IMHO it has started faster than I thought it would.....so the Romania story was not first of all denied by HSBC and then this came across and it concerns "the City passporting abilities" that is critical if the City is to survive this.....

First step in pulling the City's "passport"................

EU plans moving bank regulator from London as euro zone eyes City business
http://reut.rs/28YhcV3

What I think many on the UK failed to recognize is that for the EU UK has been demanding and demanding since day one....on virtually every bit of legislature that the EU has ever passed....then did not join the Euro and did not accept Schengen and the free movement of labor and on and on.....

What Cameron did not recognize is that the EU had reached it's limits on the last round of reform even after giving him a solid deal that no other EU has gotten largely supported by France and Germany.....then UK walks out.

Cameron seems to have completely overlooked comments coming out of Germany and the EU Commission that they had plans in place for the event UK left.

That is what we see now happening.....the EU wants
1. this to move quickly so that the financial markets calm down
2. set an example of how hard it is to leave and with what financial costs in order to block 11 other leave EU movements

And if the tones out of Berlin are mixed there is one though that sticks out...we will allow no member to destroy the EU and if one wants to leave so be it but at a heavy cost.

Germany alone will have to pick up 4B Euros of the UK monthly costs alone so they are no "happy campers"....so well those in the UK think Merkels tones are moderate....they only "sound moderate" for the public...

In some ways it now appears that Greece is far more stable than UK....and what is surprising is now Greece has fully and completely seen that the EU can and will kick them out of the Euro and EU if they do not finally go on with their reform efforts....so UK exiting has applied pressure now on Greece to finally do their reform efforts they only talk about in order to continue getting a bail out.

[Bill Moore]

The drama continues,

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-brexit-insight-idUSKCN0ZC103

To Brexit or Regrexit? A dis-United Kingdom ponders turmoil of EU divorce


After Britain's historic vote to leave the European Union, there is no indication that a so-called Brexit will happen soon. It maybe never will.

[Azor]

To Outlaw:

I've read your economic rationale for Remain, but I find it piecemeal and often anecdotal. Overall, it seems that Brexit may not be the disaster that Remain predicted; even in Cornwall, supposedly dependent upon EU subsidies, the cost would be ~£115 per year, which can easily be replaced by the UK's savings on EU contributions.


The UK has a chronic and worsening trade deficit with the EU. In 2015, 54% of UK imports were from the EU (a steady weighting since 2000), while UK exports to the EU fell to 47% in 2015 (from 60% in 2000).* (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit)

In 2011, the UK's national contribution to the EU was 73% more than the EU spent on the UK.* (http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/22/eu-budget-spending-contributions-european-union)

In 2013, the UK's national contribution was 115% more...* (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12176663/EU-Facts-how-much-does-Britain-pay-to-the-EU-budget.html)

From an anecdotal perspective, despite baffling anti-Polish sentiment in some small English towns, the main Leave concern with immigrants appears to be focused on the Roma or Gypsies who have been flooding into London's common areas and sleeping rough in addition to committing minor crimes. Leave supporters are rightly concerned that if Merkel accepts the migrants (who are migrants and not refugees) as citizens, then many will flood across the Chunnel. As it is, the Calais "jungle" is indicative of the UK's attractiveness to migrants vis-a-vis almost all other EU members. Ultimately, there will be winners and losers due to Brexit, and perhaps imports will cost more, but the UK should look further afield for export markets.

[OUTLAW 09]

To Outlaw:




The UK has a chronic and worsening trade deficit with the EU. In 2015, 54% of UK imports were from the EU (a steady weighting since 2000), while UK exports to the EU fell to 47% in 2015 (from 60% in 2000).* (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit)

In 2011, the UK's national contribution to the EU was 73% more than the EU spent on the UK.* (http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/22/eu-budget- spending-contributions-european-union)

In 2013, the UK's national contribution was 115% more...* (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12176663/EU-Facts-how-much-does-Britain-pay-to-the-EU-budget.html)

From an anecdotal perspective, despite baffling anti-Polish sentiment in some small English towns, the main Leave concern with immigrants appears to be focused on the Roma or Gypsies who have been flooding into London's common areas and sleeping rough in addition to committing minor crimes. Leave supporters are rightly concerned that if Merkel accepts the migrants (who are migrants and not refugees) as citizens, then many will flood across the Chunnel. As it is, the Calais "jungle" is indicative of the UK's attractiveness to migrants vis-a-vis almost all other EU members. Ultimately, there will be winners and losers due to Brexit, and perhaps imports will cost more, but the UK should look further afield for export markets.

Then....if that were the case then why did they yell immediately for funding relief knowing the UK budget can never pick up 60-70B Pounds per year as the same demands will coming in from other areas as well.


I've read your economic rationale for Remain, but I find it piecemeal and often anecdotal. Overall, it seems that Brexit may not be the disaster that Remain predicted; even in Cornwall, supposedly dependent upon EU subsidies, the cost would be ~£115 per year, which can easily be replaced by the UK's savings on EU contributions.

Secondly, you have not factored in the massive loss to both the FTSE 100 and 250 and the 250 is still falling today and those are mainly Brit companies and the 12-13% loss in the Pound...

The amounts clawed back from the EU will go largely to cover these and the coming financial loses....and will not be available to cover the economy.

With the lowering of the sovereign rating by Moodys...that added an additional 4B Pounds to debt service per year as well and the lowering by S&P to negative will hinder greatly any investment made by outside companies...and it will make it hard for the UK to raise funds going forward...

[davidbfpo]

A view from the ground in a West Midlands town, by an Exit door-to-door canvasser:
In my home town all but two wards went Leave, one better off Conservative, as per national trend and one where the block vote/leaders did the usual for Labour. Also Pakistani Muslims were for Leave in numbers, as well hence Birmingham result. Not fond of Eastern Europeans.

Labour shell shocked at the count, hence the meltdown today. Will Boris
call their bluff if the legislation to repeal the Europe Act is blocked
in Parliament. 1/3 Labour voters considering going elsewhere. Worse in
C2, D and E groups. Could be a rump of 150 seats.

People shaking our hands, asking for more leaflets, thumbs up on the
estates. Thanking us for what we are doing. I hope we give them some
thing back and have not led them up the garden path.

My socialist friends have been calling for years for the working class
revolution. Now they don't like it all and the mask starts to slip
amongst the bien peasant champagne socialists who purport to care about
the working classes. Thick, uneducated, racist, ignorant little
Englanders, fat, ugly, etc etc. Thing is they are not underclass, they
work and register to vote.

Also a dangerous moment. I do not blame the Eastern Europeans for
wanting a better life, I blame the elite's and all political parties.
No economic harmonisation before free movement. If I see any abuse or
backlash I will call it in.

Polls wrong as turnout filters set to General Election levels for C2, D and E. Higher turnout than normal GE in these groups because of immigration been the key issue for them.

Agree with all you say. It is Sovereignty, unelected commissioners,
biased German manufacturing, biased French agriculture and economic
hardship to club med for me.

Boris will get on the ballot of MP's no doubt and he will just walk it
when he and May are put to the membership.

Merkel will play ball, we are to important to German industry.

Scotland can do what they want, people are tiring of hearing about them
all the time.

The short term pain is worth it in the long run.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...was I right or was I right....there are some traders that indicate that the Pound will actually drop below a USD and the Euro...so yes some in the UK will argument that is great as it makes exports cheaper but the UK is an importer thus EVERYTHING will get more expense...BY how much..

BREAKING Pound slumps to new 30-year low against dollar (I remember the days when I had to pay 2.45 USDs for a single Pound and 3 DMs for a Pound)

By the value lost.....thus right now over 15% and climbing.....if it goes under the two then roughly 34-40% more expensive.

So in effect the savings from the EU are being eaten up as each day goes by..until you reach a negative return on investment and that is about ten days away if this pace keeps up......

Basic.....
Economics 101....and those in power did not see this coming...then they all need to be fired and right now....

[OUTLAW 09]

So will the Ukraine actually eventually be replacing UK.....seriously think so...

Merkel says "screw Brexit, Steinmeier and Putin" and receives Ukrainian PM @VGroysman with full military honors. https://twitter.com/D_Stoliarchuk/status/747378650547363840 …

[Firn]

I heard it now a couple of times but don't think the 'Germany' cited all too often as a proxy for the whole EU will put economic self-interest before poltical necessitiy. Much of the same was said after the Russian invasion and Germany accepted the biggest losses of all big nations despite having arguably the most talked-about political relationship.

The political mood in the E(U) and many countries is quite bad for the (U)K. They bargained hard, extracted privileges, attacked the EU and after a divisive vote somehow expect the other sides to show cool 'pragmatism', which means mostly perserving UK self-interest while forgetting that some European self-interest is actually opposed to it. And now we have the saga of the article 50 and the political chaos in the (U)K.

It is somewhat amusing to hear so much about British democracy while there seems to be little regard for other people's democracy. In short Britain will also have to respect the terms under which the elected of other people might or might not give it access to their club.

All in all I hope that this mess will be handled smartly but there will be some pain, just as everybody with some sense said. For many, often perfectly understandable reasons to leave will trump the concerns and the pain. Others seem to have been unaware of the price they will have to pay.

I will maybe later write about the deeper economic implications, but it is important that some things should not be takes as given. Especially not the actions of many others.

[omarali50]

Some thoughts on Brexit (or the thoughts behind it) http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/2016/06/brexit.html

[davidbfpo]

A short article by Professor John Schindler, the sub-title being:
Britain’s leaving is a big deal for the European Union, but not for Britain’s security—or America’s
Link:http://observer.com/2016/06/understanding-brexits-security-implications/

[OUTLAW 09]

Nothing about John.....but the UK military has been on life support for about the last 15 or so years actually ever since 1991....the AF and Navy are barely a shadow of their formers selves and the Army is struggling as well for any long term deployments and when the financial crisis deepens what tax monies are they going to get to improve all the services.....

To hunt Russian subs the French had to loan search ships and French and NATO have picked up some of the air defense patrolling......

[OUTLAW 09]

There are three developments that actually many Leave voters failed to actually realize..

1. this vote was actually an "advisory" vote to Parliament thus actually non binding as only Parliament can make the final decision....

2.in order to actually have directed Parliament to conceded to the vote there had to be a binding addendum to the vote that namely only a vote of 2/3rds was needed to make any constitutional changes.

And changing hundreds if not thousands of UK laws passed in 40 years in multiple areas to match EU requirements and now need to be changed back......THAT is in the definition of "constitutional changes" that can only be done by Parliament not the voting masses.

3. LASTLY over 19,000,000 UK citizens living abroad were denied the right to vote on a extremely important advisory vote that in the end directly affects most of them.....

That is UK democracy hard at work......

Now UKIP and the Eurospetic wings of both major political parties are using basically an advisory vote to drive through basically what some might call in other democratic countries.....a coup.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Bojo alias Boris " the terrible" the leading Euroseptic Conservative who pushed hard during the campaign against "freedom of movement as a serious threat to the UK economy and jobs"......

BUT surprise, surprise, surprise during an interview he held today...stated we will continue to accept EU citizens rights as they will support the rights of UK citizens in the EU countries......

BUT WAIT...that sounds very much like "Schengen rights and the right for free movement as the EU norm".........

So now did he actually lie, lie and lie even more with this demands that the UK has the right to control their borders and who comes in......

This morning on Sky a major UKIP MP also stated that we will determine who enters and who works here........

WHEN asked well why do you then expect the EU to allow UK citizens to continue to travel freely in the EU if we control them coming in......

He never did answer the question......BUT kept going back and stating ..it is in their best interests......BUT when told that is not how the EU handles non EU citizens.....he was silent....and avoided the answer...

But he and Bojo do not seem to fully understand EU requirements for non EU members......

[davidbfpo]

Nothing about John.....but the UK military has been on life support for about the last 15 or so years actually ever since 1991....the AF and Navy are barely a shadow of their formers selves and the Army is struggling as well for any long term deployments and when the financial crisis deepens what tax monies are they going to get to improve all the services.....

To hunt Russian subs the French had to loan search ships and French and NATO have picked up some of the air defense patrolling......

Agreed, but I expect his focus is on intelligence and pre-conflict work. Plus having the 'Special Relationship' enables US access to some strategic places, often islands e.g. Diego Garcia and skill sets the USA may not have.

[OUTLAW 09]

A short article by Professor John Schindler, the sub-title being:
Link:http://observer.com/2016/06/understanding-brexits-security-implications/

Brexit is Good News for Russia, but a Headache for NATO
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/26/brexit-is-good-news-for-russia-but-a-headache-for-nato/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

And the dogs of racism have been unleashed by this.....National Police Chiefs Council online police reporting of hate crimes from Thursday to Sunday are UP by 57%.....

Hate to honestly say this as I have lived and worked in the UK for a number of years and this totally breaks the mold........

BUT WHY so focused on Poles who fought and died in WW2 for the "Battle of Britain"....

[OUTLAW 09]

Agreed, but I expect his focus is on intelligence and pre-conflict work. Plus having the 'Special Relationship' enables US access to some strategic places, often islands e.g. Diego Garcia and skill sets the USA may not have.

David...fully and completely agree although I think this connection is already deep and present....

My concern is this.....

"France is not enthusiastic about being left exposed as Europe’s sole nuclear power"
https://next.ft.com/content/11bde1d6-39e8-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f#axzz4CmLircDw …

Especially after they stated reluctance to turn over the MDS to NATO control......as they figured the UK would be in the mix nuclear wise if something goes seriously astray.....

[OUTLAW 09]

FTSE 100 down again today 2.55% drop of over 6% in two days

FTSE 250 down again today 6.4% drop from the Friday drop of over 8%

FTSE 250 is critical as it reflects the actual major 250 Brit companies....so down on the whole of over 15%

Predictions of continued drops in both FTSE's....

GBP to USD at an historical 31 year low at 1.32 and set to go lower as the "market" knows the economy will now go into recession and are betting it will go lower...some predict to as low as equal to the USD 1 to 1......

Literally BILLIONS wiped out today on both FTSE's and the GBP dropping and that will not effect investment and jobs.....over the next 5-10 years????

Market specialists are saying the GBP to USD is to level at 1.20 and that is major if not a disaster for the economy......

Bond Markets......the UK bonds fell to just under 1% so not even worth buying UK bonds......

AND now the words of a "global recession" is bein g painted by market experts....all triggered by the vote and declared "rubbish" by the Leave side.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Brexit campaign wipes website clear, sparking speculation it is hiding its promises

Man...the UK politics cannot get any worse than this......how are they to talk to an angry EU when they cannot even et their major parties in line..as everyone is trying to get a new job......

On Sky News the new Labour Treasury spokesman sats she can handle the job because "I have always had an interest in economics"!

[OUTLAW 09]

My 73 yr old Mum (who voted Remain) tells me people in her lunch club thought LEAVE meant, quite literally, voting to make immigrants leave.

[OUTLAW 09]

I heard it now a couple of times but don't think the 'Germany' cited all too often as a proxy for the whole EU will put economic self-interest before poltical necessitiy. Much of the same was said after the Russian invasion and Germany accepted the biggest losses of all big nations despite having arguably the most talked-about political relationship.

The political mood in the E(U) and many countries is quite bad for the (U)K. They bargained hard, extracted privileges, attacked the EU and after a divisive vote somehow expect the other sides to show cool 'pragmatism', which means mostly perserving UK self-interest while forgetting that some European self-interest is actually opposed to it. And now we have the saga of the article 50 and the political chaos in the (U)K.

It is somewhat amusing to hear so much about British democracy while there seems to be little regard for other people's democracy. In short Britain will also have to respect the terms under which the elected of other people might or might not give it access to their club.

All in all I hope that this mess will be handled smartly but there will be some pain, just as everybody with some sense said. For many, often perfectly understandable reasons to leave will trump the concerns and the pain. Others seem to have been unaware of the price they will have to pay.

I will maybe later write about the deeper economic implications, but it is important that some things should not be takes as given. Especially not the actions of many others.

Firn...your comments about the UK constantly pushing the EU to change in order to ensure UK self interests when the other 27 would largely agree on something...compromise has never been a mark of UK EU politics....

Example...the EU fully understands exactly how the UK talks and deals...so when Cameron delayed the article 50...they knew it was coming so the statements...get on it with and do not delay and then Cameron today in Parliament...I am going to the EU to see what we can do to start "pre negotiations".....ALL designed to basically delay the article 50 trigger and try to get a better talks deal.

Merkel's response this evening from Berlin .....THERE will be NO pre negotiations...you are to come to us with your proposals and it is the 27 who will judge them and reduce if necessary as you the UK have no voice and basically are in the weaker "negotiations position because you are the one leaving".

Sad that politicians are playing with fire and apparently do not even see the fire.......

Also sad the Finance Minister even backs away from his own dire statements before the vote....now well not so bad.....as everything is crashing on the currency and trading markets.......how crazy is that????

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
"The Brexit lies are a gift for the far-right" Me in @spectator on the creation of an English stab-in-the-back myth http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-lies-opening-terrifying-new-opportunity-far-right-britain/ …

BREAKING: S&P lowers United Kingdom sovereign credit rating to AA from AAA

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian advice to the Brit Remain side..................


Brits who like to stay in the EU might wanna watch this and learn from the real experts.
https://youtu.be/DaUSz6QeLAk

[OUTLAW 09]

Bet BoJo and UKIP did not think this would ever happen after 40 years.......

English will not be an official EU language after Brexit: Senior MEP
http://fb.me/9lwOObNPx

Nick Clegg
✔ @nick_clegg We must elect a new government to decide country’s future. My article for today's @standardnews
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-we-must-elect-a-new-government-to-decide-this-country-s-future-a3281686.html …

SO an interesting question ......was BoJo heading the Leave movement headed to a not so unseen "coup"......becoming PM without ever going through an election....????


You couldn’t make it up, you really couldn’t. Having told the nation repeatedly that with one bound we would be free to “take back control” of our own future, it turns out that the Brexiters haven’t the faintest clue about what the future holds. None. Zip. They have persuaded the nation to jump out of a plane without parachutes — and they have no idea how to avoid a crash landing.

FURTHER........


Worse still, what they did tell us about the future turns out to be false too: Nigel Farage now admits that the infamous claim that we would have £350 million a week to spend on the NHS should never have been made; Daniel Hannan asserts, with a straight face, that Leave never really claimed immigration should be significantly reduced; and Brexiters have assured the Northern Irish that there will be no checks at the new land border with the EU.

So there we have it: no money saved, no major cut in immigration, no control over our border with the EU.

Boy, would I feel double-crossed if I was one of the millions of people who voted for Brexit because I thought we would get all three. The wrath of betrayal which awaits Brexiters will make the anger directed at me over tuition fees look like a Sunday school picnic. Two big things immediately follow from this mountainous act of deception.

First, the victors must come before Parliament within the next week to tell us all what they want us to do next. Shrugging their shoulders and wittering about the need for time, as Boris Johnson has done, is intolerable. He, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart — the leading Brexit MPs — have won. Now comes the responsibility of victory.

Continued.....

[OUTLAW 09]

David...this is the EU financial exit we will start seeing and IMHO it has started faster than I thought it would.....so the Romania story was not first of all denied by HSBC and then this came across and it concerns "the City passporting abilities" that is critical if the City is to survive this.....

First step in pulling the City's "passport"................

EU plans moving bank regulator from London as euro zone eyes City business
http://reut.rs/28YhcV3

What I think many on the UK failed to recognize is that for the EU UK has been demanding and demanding since day one....on virtually every bit of legislature that the EU has ever passed....then did not join the Euro and did not accept Schengen and the free movement of labor and on and on.....

What Cameron did not recognize is that the EU had reached it's limits on the last round of reform even after giving him a solid deal that no other EU has gotten largely supported by France and Germany.....then UK walks out.

Cameron seems to have completely overlooked comments coming out of Germany and the EU Commission that they had plans in place for the event UK left.

That is what we see now happening.....the EU wants
1. this to move quickly so that the financial markets calm down
2. set an example of how hard it is to leave and with what financial costs in order to block 11 other leave EU movements

And if the tones out of Berlin are mixed there is one though that sticks out...we will allow no member to destroy the EU and if one wants to leave so be it but at a heavy cost.

Germany alone will have to pick up 4B Euros of the UK monthly costs alone so they are no "happy campers"....so well those in the UK think Merkels tones are moderate....they only "sound moderate" for the public...

In some ways it now appears that Greece is far more stable than UK....and what is surprising is now Greece has fully and completely seen that the EU can and will kick them out of the Euro and EU if they do not finally go on with their reform efforts....so UK exiting has applied pressure now on Greece to finally do their reform efforts they only talk about in order to continue getting a bail out.

David......here it comes and as totally predicted.......

Thousands of London banking job cuts to start next week
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit#.V3Fi2YqapcU.twitter …

Merkel ally: sure thing, UK, you can be in the single market, for a fee: the same one you pay today.
http://ln.is/www.bbc.co.uk/progra/VxGXV …

BUT with no voting voice on how your money is being spent.........

[OUTLAW 09]

Wonder how many in UK know this about their Labour leader......

Official Islamic agency IRNA praises #Labour #Jeremy Corbyn for "resisting pressure by warmongers" to resign. Corbyn is old ally of mullahs.

[OUTLAW 09]

Bet Leave did not calculate this ever happening.......
The drama expands.
#Brexit boosts calls for Australia to leave the Commonwealth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/brexit-boosts-calls-for-australia-to-leave-the-commonwealth/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

UK credit rating down. Cost of UK debt up. 0.5% on £470 bn debt = £22 Bn. 2X our EU contribution to international money men. Taking control?

Global effect of the Leave....
Friday Brexit crash wiped out a record $2.1 trillion. Now what?
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/27/investing/brexit-consequences-2-trillion-lost/index.html?category=investing …

Brexit is dangerous because it is strengthening the forces already dragging the world economy down.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/upshot/brexit-is-strengthening-the-forces-that-already-haunt-the-global-economy.html …

S&P no longer see UK institutions as a strength. Cuts credit rating TWO notches. Worse than financial crisis

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin Using Western Values to Destroy Those Values and the West, Moscow Analyst Says
http://www.interpretermag.com/june-26-2016/#14357 …

[OUTLAW 09]

BBC News - Brexit: Gibraltar in talks with Scotland to stay in EU
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770 …

[OUTLAW 09]

EU has now formally stated......

EU Council
✔ @EUCouncil #Brexit: how to trigger article50?Negotiations on #leave & future relations to start only after formal notification: http://ow.ly/RRkF301GGvJ

[Azor]

Then....if that were the case then why did they yell immediately for funding relief knowing the UK budget can never pick up 60-70B Pounds per year as the same demands will coming in from other areas as well.

The subsidy is GBP 60 million not billion, and again this works out to roughly GBP 112 annually per person. As I mentioned in my previous comment, there will be winners and losers from Brexit, but I believe that the overall long-term impact can be beneficial.


Secondly, you have not factored in the massive loss to both the FTSE 100 and 250 and the 250 is still falling today and those are mainly Brit companies and the 12-13% loss in the Pound...The amounts clawed back from the EU will go largely to cover these and the coming financial loses....and will not be available to cover the economy. With the lowering of the sovereign rating by Moodys...that added an additional 4B Pounds to debt service per year as well and the lowering by S&P to negative will hinder greatly any investment made by outside companies...and it will make it hard for the UK to raise funds going forward...

The financial markets loathe uncertainty and short-term losses in both the LSE and GBP were to be expected. The equity and foreign exchange losses are not permanent, nor do they indicate that the BoE or Treasury will have to intervene with a bailout.

What Moody's did was lower the outlook on the UK's debt, but affirmed its rating of AA1 (https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlook-on-UK-sovereign-rating-to-negative-from--PR_350566). Note that Moody's lowered the UK's debt rating to AA1 from AAA in 2013, when the UK's membership in the EU was not in question, which was the case in 2015. Moody's also lowered the ratings on US and France as well in 2013.

The GBP $4 billion that you refer to is clearly speculative in nature, and I would caution that UK debt is denominated in GBP, which as you noted has fallen precipitously against the USD and EUR since the referendum outcome. Therefore, the debt would be lower in real terms.

There will be an impact on the City of London's financial sector, although the size and scope remains to be seen. Certainly, the EBA and FSA had already been locking horns, and there has been a sense that the sector has profited by EU interactions at the expense of the rest of the British economy.

Scotland's First Minister has made noises about another secession referendum, although the Scottish Parliament has no authority to conduct one without assent from Westminster.

Having said that let's look at the national breakdown:


England comprises roughly 83.50% of the UK's population, but provides 86.50% of its GDP and tax revenues. In return, England receives 3% less in government spending per capita than the UK average

Scotland comprises 8.20% of the UK's population and GDP, 8.00% of its tax revenues and receives 15.50% more government spending per capita than the UK average

Northern Ireland comprises 2.90% of the UK's population and 2.50% of its GDP, but provides only 2.10% of its tax revenues. In return, Northern Ireland receives 23.75% more in government spending per capita


Overall, assuming that there can be an equitable way to share the North Sea oil and gas, and assuming that Scotland and England can come to an amicable security arrangement, a Scottish secession would benefit England. Comparatively speaking, England is the driving force of the British economy and is more productive by any measure than the other constituent nations.

[Compost]

The Brexit forces have won the day and that should probably have been expected. The EU is an awkward construct intended to homogenise regional groups which do not share a common language and a common or adopted heritage.

And of course Cameron has to resign. He mistook supposed EU willingness to talk about problems as preparedness to modify the functioning of its antidemocractic socialist bureaucracy. The consequent reaction of the UK population was another historic though narrow win for common sense and assessment over fervour and wishful thinking.

The posturing of German Chancellor Merkel has been counter productive in three major areas. One was the continuous scheming in conjunction with fellow socialist French President Hollande to downgrade the involvement of the UK within the EU. Another disastrous ploy was encouragement in western Ukraine of the uprising against an unpopular but elected government in order to facilitate an eastward expansion of EU and NATO influence. The most recent was Merkel’s pretentious welcoming of border crossers and people smugglers into Europe.

In combination those initiatives have done more damage to the European community than contrived by any politician for decades. Merkel should have resigned after the Ukraine, and should now be dumped as incompetent. Hopefully the dumping will occur before the end of July 2016, and well before Cameron makes an honourable departure.

But regardless of what happens to those two, the EU is likely to continue for some period as a peculiar amalgam of inequalities and inequities before eventually becoming a workable federation of regional states. And for much or all of the interim it seems preferable to let the Europeans learn by experience in the same way as the UK and its constituent parts and previous colonies have done.

[Azor]

The Brexit forces have won the day and that should probably have been expected. The EU is an awkward construct intended to homogenise regional groups which do not share a common language and a common or adopted heritage.

And of course Cameron has to resign. He mistook supposed EU willingness to talk about problems as preparedness to modify the functioning of its antidemocractic socialist bureaucracy. The consequent reaction of the UK population was another historic though narrow win for common sense and assessment over fervour and wishful thinking.

The posturing of German Chancellor Merkel has been counter productive in three major areas. One was the continuous scheming in conjunction with fellow socialist French President Hollande to downgrade the involvement of the UK within the EU. Another disastrous ploy was encouragement in western Ukraine of the uprising against an unpopular but elected government in order to facilitate an eastward expansion of EU and NATO influence. The most recent was Merkel’s pretentious welcoming of border crossers and people smugglers into Europe.

In combination those initiatives have done more damage to the European community than contrived by any politician for decades. Merkel should have resigned after the Ukraine, and should now be dumped as incompetent. Hopefully the dumping will occur before the end of July 2016, and well before Cameron makes an honourable departure.

But regardless of what happens to those two, the EU is likely to continue for some period as a peculiar amalgam of inequalities and inequities before eventually becoming a workable federation of regional states. And for much or all of the interim it seems preferable to let the Europeans learn by experience in the same way as the UK and its constituent parts and previous colonies have done.

Absolutely on point, although I would say that Ukraine was about the EU vs. EEU. If NATO really was the issue, Greece, Italy, Germany or any other member sympathetic to Russia could have blocked Ukraine's accession, and Obama has been more concerned with police shootings than foreign policy.

[OUTLAW 09]

The subsidy is GBP 60 million not billion, and again this works out to roughly GBP 112 annually per person. As I mentioned in my previous comment, there will be winners and losers from Brexit, but I believe that the overall long-term impact can be beneficial.



The financial markets loathe uncertainty and short-term losses in both the LSE and GBP were to be expected. The equity and foreign exchange losses are not permanent, nor do they indicate that the BoE or Treasury will have to intervene with a bailout.

What Moody's did was lower the outlook on the UK's debt, but affirmed its rating of AA1 (https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlook-on-UK-sovereign-rating-to-negative-from--PR_350566). Note that Moody's lowered the UK's debt rating to AA1 from AAA in 2013, when the UK's membership in the EU was not in question, which was the case in 2015. Moody's also lowered the ratings on US and France as well in 2013.

The GBP $4 billion that you refer to is clearly speculative in nature, and I would caution that UK debt is denominated in GBP, which as you noted has fallen precipitously against the USD and EUR since the referendum outcome. Therefore, the debt would be lower in real terms.

There will be an impact on the City of London's financial sector, although the size and scope remains to be seen. Certainly, the EBA and FSA had already been locking horns, and there has been a sense that the sector has profited by EU interactions at the expense of the rest of the British economy.

Scotland's First Minister has made noises about another secession referendum, although the Scottish Parliament has no authority to conduct one without assent from Westminster.

Having said that let's look at the national breakdown:


England comprises roughly 83.50% of the UK's population, but provides 86.50% of its GDP and tax revenues. In return, England receives 3% less in government spending per capita than the UK average

Scotland comprises 8.20% of the UK's population and GDP, 8.00% of its tax revenues and receives 15.50% more government spending per capita than the UK average

Northern Ireland comprises 2.90% of the UK's population and 2.50% of its GDP, but provides only 2.10% of its tax revenues. In return, Northern Ireland receives 23.75% more in government spending per capita


Overall, assuming that there can be an equitable way to share the North Sea oil and gas, and assuming that Scotland and England can come to an amicable security arrangement, a Scottish secession would benefit England. Comparatively speaking, England is the driving force of the British economy and is more productive by any measure than the other constituent nations.

Azor...so you clearly stating that in fact the billions wiped off of the FTSE 100 and 250 which the 250 is the most critical, international companies and now even Brit companies signaling now a major pull back on investment, with the fire sale of TaTa not even being thought about now due to lack of overseas bidders, the GBP dropping again today....will all only have short term effects?

The drops in both FTSEs effect Brit pensioners massively, and yes a cheaper pound and the BoE pushing the interest rate probably to zero makes the house owner happy as most mortgages are tracker mortgages but the cost of gasoline is rising as are the normal food products imported which UK is a gross importer...are going to impact the overall cost of living in a country with a low income majority which was the main support for leave.....and the low GBP will push short term exports...ALSO remember that most home owners see their house values as a long term pension plan...those have now dropped in value of roughly 12% and still falling....

Overall the economy hit will not be cleared for a long time to come....

BUT more importantly this is the critical point in all of this....

NOW the Conservatives are talking about the following EU negotiations plan.....

The so called "Norway model" meaning free access to the single market and so form of free movement.

BUT even Norway warned England that you still have to paid the EU membership fees and still have to allow free movement BUT have absolutely no voice in EU decision...meaning pay but no play.....

So was not the election all about taking back their country, not being ruled by Brussels seen as a supranational empire, was it not against free movement of labor and more importantly was it not against immigration....???

IF that was and still is the case then why kneecap your economy wiping out billons of savings and pensions AND then turnaround and say to the Leave voters...hey this is all we got from the EU....we can access the single markets BUT at the somewhat higher fees than before yearly fees and we will still have immigration and free movement.

Make sense to you????

So when does a country fire their entire political party system and start all over.....why do you think UKIP pushed so hard....??

BTW markets will fall another 2-3% on the FTSE 100 and probably another 4-6% on 250 today and the market traders are waiting to see if it breaks through 1.32 to the USD........just based on overnight trading it might in fact break through........if it breaks through then it will hit the estimated bottom value of 1.20 USD.....adding 15-20% increase in already raised gasoline price...although some really good currency trading see it at par value 1 to 1.

[OUTLAW 09]

Nick Clegg predicted the future with stunning accuracy
http://i100.io/AUcETQj

BREAKING
Japanese 40 year Bond falls to lowest level in history....

[OUTLAW 09]

What I do not see is much discussion on actual Russian non linear warfare being practiced in the UK prior to this vote...both money and info warfare.....

AND over a long number of years starting with UKIP.........

Referendum is the instrument of #Russian hybrid war; one was planned in #Ukraine in 2012 by #Putin’s pal #Medvedchuk
https://goo.gl/KP5UHk


Wall Street Journal
✔ @WSJ The European Commission has moved to focus on using French and German in communications, following the #Brexit vote http://on.wsj.com/296rdQ0
Sorry behind pay wall...

Even after epic drop, here's why the British pound is destined for more misery
http://cnb.cx/291ZwX5

[OUTLAW 09]

AND naturally from the best right wing Brit party...UKIP....

U.K.’s Nigel Farage: Obama behaved ‘disgracefully’ by campaigning against Brexit
http://politi.co/296UoCw

AND from the split does not know what it wants UK Conservative Party ..."we want to rejoin the EU after we left it"......

Jeremy Hunt Calls For Second EU Referendum
http://news.sky.com/story/1718563/jeremy-hunt-calls-for-second-eu-referendum …

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....heads up as this goes along what I have been saying and it is from the UK FT......

Brexit in seven charts.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0260242c-370b-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html …

BTW...the UK Finance Minister this morning announced exactly what will kill the UK economy long term......taxes are going to go up and in the end way up and public spending will cut...remember this is what the majority of the poor areas that voted to Leave were complaining about...the 40 yrs of a lack of public spending...well it is now going to get worse......far worse.....

Again to the cheers of UKIP...........

[Azor]

Azor...so you clearly stating that in fact the billions wiped off of the FTSE 100 and 250 which the 250 is the most critical, international companies and now even Brit companies signaling now a major pull back on investment, with the fire sale of TaTa not even being thought about now due to lack of overseas bidders, the GBP dropping again today....will all only have short term effects?

The June 24 selloff off of the FTSE 100 was not worse than in 1987 or 2008, although for the FTSE 250 only 1987 was worse. However, stock market crashes occur over a period of months and flash crashes, as we saw in January and February of this year across the major equity indices, represent more of a buying opportunity than an indicator of a major downturn or secular bear market. To be honest, we'll have to take stock of the situation, no pun intended, in 2-3 months.


Overall the economy hit will not be cleared for a long time to come...

The British economy will adjust and in the short-term it will cause pain and joy to different players, but the EU is not going to impose sanctions on exports to the UK because Brussels' socio-political re-engineering of Europe was rejected by the English; this is particularly true as various EU factions want to begin selling foodstuffs to Russia again.


NOW the Conservatives are talking about the following EU negotiations plan.....The so called "Norway model" meaning free access to the single market and so form of free movement. BUT even Norway warned England that you still have to paid the EU membership fees and still have to allow free movement BUT have absolutely no voice in EU decision...meaning pay but no play.....

The EFTA is not the same as the EU, and Schengen cannot be used for those seeking welfare benefits. Moreover, the UK had a unique opt-out to the Schengen Agreement despite EU membership. We do not know what the government after Cameron's will decide, but a separate free trade deal with the EU is possible, as was negotiated with Canada, Israel, etc.


So was not the election all about taking back their country, not being ruled by Brussels seen as a supranational empire, was it not against free movement of labor and more importantly was it not against immigration....???

Brussels has certainly overreached. The EU is a great idea if left as a Free Trade Area or Customs Union, but the bureaucrats in Brussels want to expand their power within the union and expand the union itself. The UK immigration system has been broken for decades, long before the Polish plumbers and the Roma beggars appeared. Brexit is but the first in a series of steps needed to control the borders and prevent the "rivers of blood" that Enoch Powell spoke of decades ago.


IF that was and still is the case then why kneecap your economy wiping out billons of savings and pensions AND then turnaround and say to the Leave voters...hey this is all we got from the EU....we can access the single markets BUT at the somewhat higher fees than before yearly fees and we will still have immigration and free movement

Again, you're making assumptions about the UK's tight spot with regard to future negotiations while ignoring all the Eurozone countries that want access to the UK's market. And by the UK's market, I mean the productive people in England rather than the vocal dependents in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

[OUTLAW 09]

Merkel: Whoever decides to leave eu family cannot keep privileges without keeping obligations

Boris Johnson’s first big statement after Brexit is made of half-truths, magical thinking, and outright lies
http://qz.com/717412 via @qz

[OUTLAW 09]

The June 24 selloff off of the FTSE 100 was not worse than in 1987 or 2008, although for the FTSE 250 only 1987 was worse. However, stock market crashes occur over a period of months and flash crashes, as we saw in January and February of this year across the major equity indices, represent more of a buying opportunity than an indicator of a major downturn or secular bear market. To be honest, we'll have to take stock of the situation, no pun intended, in 2-3 months.



The British economy will adjust and in the short-term it will cause pain and joy to different players, but the EU is not going to impose sanctions on exports to the UK because Brussels' socio-political re-engineering of Europe was rejected by the English; this is particularly true as various EU factions want to begin selling foodstuffs to Russia again.



The EFTA is not the same as the EU, and Schengen cannot be used for those seeking welfare benefits. Moreover, the UK had a unique opt-out to the Schengen Agreement despite EU membership. We do not know what the government after Cameron's will decide, but a separate free trade deal with the EU is possible, as was negotiated with Canada, Israel, etc.



Brussels has certainly overreached. The EU is a great idea if left as a Free Trade Area or Customs Union, but the bureaucrats in Brussels want to expand their power within the union and expand the union itself. The UK immigration system has been broken for decades, long before the Polish plumbers and the Roma beggars appeared. Brexit is but the first in a series of steps needed to control the borders and prevent the "rivers of blood" that Enoch Powell spoke of decades ago.



Again, you're making assumptions about the UK's tight spot with regard to future negotiations while ignoring all the Eurozone countries that want access to the UK's market. And by the UK's market, I mean the productive people in England rather than the vocal dependents in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Azor...you truly do not get exactly what is happening right now do you....listen to Merkel's comments today, listen to the EU Commissions President's statement today....

Look at the FT charts and then tell me...everything is fine and will work and it is all just going to be a "short time".......

Markets and large companies go where they can export and earn profits with limited interference AND they were based in the UK simply due to low salaries..and ease of exports into the EU with virtually little restrictions and tariffs.....do not think for a moment they will not move over time to Czech Republic or Poland where they are now based.

Do not think for a moment that investment wants a location where it cannot flow into and out of the EU with any restrictions...they will simply move to the EU ....so what is the impact of that on the Brit economy when it moves to the EU out of UK?

So go back a review the FT charts and tell me I am wrong......


What about the £350m a week sent to Brussels?

This figure — widely promoted by the Leave campaign — is not correct, as several Brexiters acknowledged after the polls had closed. When pushed, the Leave campaign accepts that Britain’s net contributions are much lower after the rebate secured by Margaret Thatcher and payments to farmers, poorer regions and science. Britain does, however, make net contributions to the EU budget of £8.5bn in 2015, about £163m a week. This will be saved once the UK had left the EU and Britain would get to choose how it spent the money currently allocated for farmers and others by common EU rules.

Alternative explanation
A net contribution of £8.5bn is roughly £1 out of every £100 the British government spends every year, so any savings will be small. The Institute for Fiscal Studies and others have pointed out that if leaving the EU implies slower growth, the net saving would be wiped out through lower tax revenues and higher benefit spending — even if the growth reduction was merely 0.6 per cent. The IFS estimated that if the economic assessments of Brexit were accurate, leaving the EU would cost UK taxpayers between £20bn and £40bn a year.

Assessment
There is no doubt that the effect of EU membership on national income was more important for the UK public finances than the annual membership fee. This is the dominant issue and a small hit would leave Britain’s public sector worse off.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....and this......

GBP continues to tumble against Ukraine's Hryvnia, one of least stable currencies in Europe and it continues to fall even now.....

GERMAN CARMAKERS in blow to LEAVE #Brexit "UK will have to accept free movement of EU citizens in return for access to the single market"

Pretty grim reading. This Is Just the Start of the Brexit’s Economic Disaster
http://nyti.ms/290SJxN

[OUTLAW 09]

After insulting the EU Farage then asks for its mercy
https://twitter.com/AncaGurzu/status/747724443548549120 …

After calling for a "grown-up" attitude, Farage says "most of you have never worked a day in your lives." He's been an MEP for 17 years.

After insulting, mocking EU lawmakers British Leave campaigner Farage calls for "grown-up" Brexit negotiations

The whole EP is literally laughing at Nigel Farage

Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader, supports Farage, says to EU parliament "the British told you where to get off"

Marine Le Pen, whose party received €50 million from Russia, claiming that EU forces their members to poverty

With no British Commissioner now present in Brussels, this is who is defacto speaking for us in European Parliament.

From Merkel in German who those in the UK ie UKIP........and even the Conservatives...........you cannot pick the cherries you want or not want..it will not be allowed......
Im #Brexit-Liveblog: #Merkel sagt, in den Verhandlungen mit London dürfe „Rosinenpickerei“ nicht geduldet werden.
http://faz.net/-gpf-8ii1i#GEPC;s30 …

Swedish PM: "Sounds like UK wants to cherry pick benefits of EU membership but that doesn't work. Leaving will have consequences."

[OUTLAW 09]

Light Brexit humor.......

Latest post-#BrexitVote scores:
Tories: -1 Leader
Labour: -33 Shadow ministers
Lib Dems: +7000 new members
Leave: -all campaign promises

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...............and the march to leave begins.........

Sir Richard Branson: Chinese investors quitting UK over Brexit vote - business live
http://trib.al/PRlcjyY

[OUTLAW 09]

The New York Times
✔ @nytimes "Well, that didn't take long." Brexit proponents' false promises crumble:
http://nyti.ms/290LLWC

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...............and the march to leave begins.........

Sir Richard Branson: Chinese investors quitting UK over Brexit vote - business live
http://trib.al/PRlcjyY

London start-up scene weighs threat of British Techxit
http://reut.rs/291Nzm3
Berlin has already started putting out feelers to the London startups....as the Berlin startup scene is now pulling strong EU and US VC monies.

Berlin eyes Britain’s tech talent | BBC News
http://buff.ly/294zaTC

Brexit Boon Seen for European Cities -SG's Oudea sees renewed opportunities for Paris -
http://bloom.bg/29elROz

[OUTLAW 09]

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
Once again, @NickCohen4: on the looming threat of a real British far-right
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-lies-opening-terrifying-new-opportunity-far-right-britain/ …

The nationalist genie is now out of the bottle, writes @hugorifkind
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-nationalist-genie-is-now-out-of-the-bottle-wvht3wzkt?shareToken=056c78547482d31bdcf910d441e37 ae8 …

“Unspeakable become speakable.“ #Brexit “opened up Pandora’s box” of resentment & suspicion. Nasty. And troubling.
http://gu.com/p/4mnev?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other …

[OUTLAW 09]

Financial Times
✔ @FT The Bank of England has injected £3.1bn of liquidity into UK banks after Brexit.
http://on.ft.com/2905y6H

The UK Government has shelved plans to sell RBS and Lloyds shares after Brexit
http://ind.pn/29bnMEC

[OUTLAW 09]

Under the rubric of ...what the heck...and this is an UK politician.....

Yesterday Boris set out his Brexit plan. Today his aides say we should dismiss it because he was tired. This is actually happening.

So he writes a rather sloppy article and then backpedals and backpedals and backpedals using the excuse "he was tired"...then do not write it to begin with....


Boris Telegraph y'day column was "written too quickly" and he's tired. Friends agree sloppy & sent mixed messages & will be vetted in future

[OUTLAW 09]

Financial Times
✔ @FT The Bank of England has injected £3.1bn of liquidity into UK banks after Brexit.
http://on.ft.com/2905y6H

The UK Government has shelved plans to sell RBS and Lloyds shares after Brexit
http://ind.pn/29bnMEC

After #Brexit, @ReutersGraphics looks at other cities where U.S. banks could set up shop:
http://reut.rs/297srsm

[OUTLAW 09]

Devastating call from German grandmother who says she hasn't left house in 3 days due to fear of Brexit xenophobia: https://www.buzzfeed.com/victoriasanusi/a-german-woman-called-lbc-in-tears-over-the-abuse-she-says-s?utm_term=.awgwO7dz9N#.bwYNam5J4g …

[Bill Moore]

The June 24 selloff off of the FTSE 100 was not worse than in 1987 or 2008, although for the FTSE 250 only 1987 was worse. However, stock market crashes occur over a period of months and flash crashes, as we saw in January and February of this year across the major equity indices, represent more of a buying opportunity than an indicator of a major downturn or secular bear market. To be honest, we'll have to take stock of the situation, no pun intended, in 2-3 months.



The British economy will adjust and in the short-term it will cause pain and joy to different players, but the EU is not going to impose sanctions on exports to the UK because Brussels' socio-political re-engineering of Europe was rejected by the English; this is particularly true as various EU factions want to begin selling foodstuffs to Russia again.



The EFTA is not the same as the EU, and Schengen cannot be used for those seeking welfare benefits. Moreover, the UK had a unique opt-out to the Schengen Agreement despite EU membership. We do not know what the government after Cameron's will decide, but a separate free trade deal with the EU is possible, as was negotiated with Canada, Israel, etc.



Brussels has certainly overreached. The EU is a great idea if left as a Free Trade Area or Customs Union, but the bureaucrats in Brussels want to expand their power within the union and expand the union itself. The UK immigration system has been broken for decades, long before the Polish plumbers and the Roma beggars appeared. Brexit is but the first in a series of steps needed to control the borders and prevent the "rivers of blood" that Enoch Powell spoke of decades ago.



Again, you're making assumptions about the UK's tight spot with regard to future negotiations while ignoring all the Eurozone countries that want access to the UK's market. And by the UK's market, I mean the productive people in England rather than the vocal dependents in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Azor,

I agree with you, I'm not buying into the hysteria. In less than week After the Brexit referendum the fearmongers have described the end of Europe. Hardly, but there will be market adjustments. I'm buying into the fear. The EU is bigger than free trade, it is increasingly treading on areas of what should be state sovereignty. This is a wake up call, that theoretically presents an opportunity for needed adjustments.

[OUTLAW 09]

EP President
✔ @EP_President Waiting several months for purely internal party political reasons would be unacceptable. Would lead to prolonged uncertainty

Hollande almost willing UK out the door:"cannot imagine a British govt, no matter who it is, not respecting the choice of their own people"

[Firn]

Well if Brexit happens it will obviously not be the end of the world, indeed Europe has seen much worse and is still there and one of the richest areas of this world.

For everybody who wishes to inform himself there is a vast amount of studies, papers, comments about the implications of a Brexit. Ironically the only big advantage of a Brexit should be a Sterling devalued - due to a lack of confidence in the British economy. Much of Britain's economic fortune will depend on European decisions, which is of course one of those many ironies.


Perhaps the most important graph for the Treasury and why I don think that the stunning rating cut (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/sp-cuts-united-kingdom-sovereign-credit-rating-to-aa-from-aaa.html) is just a small fish in this mess. Keep in mind that this act would be normally the news in the financial world - reminds me of a comment after the ref about a PM quitting being just headline number 3...

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DYKBKxKX14s/V3HAcI_xpWI/AAAAAAAANxA/DiEAcXxhVk8MNVa6Np-hDHqgKpk755k3wCLcB/s640/gilt%2Byields.png



https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/10-year-bond-yield-84-2012.png


Keep in mind that this is part of a historic trend and that the 10Y Bund yield turned negative (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND) due to the flight to safety...

[OUTLAW 09]

All we hear on UK TV is talk about how the FTSE and GBP RALLIED......

Well the GBP gained a SINGLE cent....and the FTSE 100 on simply taking the cheap stocks only rose 2.7% and the FTSE 250 barely 3-4%

BUT the GBP has never been under 1.40 for longer than two days.....and the loses from Black Friday on both the FTSEs have not been regained at all.

The only real activity has been in buying cheap shares...so the markets are still waiting to see if the second shoe falls.

[OUTLAW 09]

Branson says Virgin Group loses third of its value after Brexit
http://reut.rs/292ot6v

[Azor]

Azor...you truly do not get exactly what is happening right now do you....

Actually when I'm looking at a sea of red on my screen and my livelihood is disrupted, I can tell you that I understand perfectly. Unfortunately, the market's desire for certainty is such that it would prefer the certainty of a Brussels-Moscow-Beijing triumvirate ruling over Eurasia than the uncertainty of democratic states.


...listen to Merkel's comments today, listen to the EU Commissions President's statement today...Look at the FT charts and then tell me...everything is fine and will work and it is all just going to be a "short time".......Markets and large companies go where they can export and earn profits with limited interference AND they were based in the UK simply due to low salaries..and ease of exports into the EU with virtually little restrictions and tariffs.....do not think for a moment they will not move over time to Czech Republic or Poland where they are now based. Do not think for a moment that investment wants a location where it cannot flow into and out of the EU with any restrictions...they will simply move to the EU ....so what is the impact of that on the Brit economy when it moves to the EU out of UK? So go back a review the FT charts and tell me I am wrong......

How do extremely short-term charts determine how businesses will allocate capital 5-10 years from now? What about the flip-side of that coin where EU firms demand a fair FTA with the UK in order to keep selling to British customers? If the UK economy was based upon exporting to the EU, than it has already been failing for the past 15+ years...

If France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the others want to subsidize the newer EU members of East-Central Europe so that they are more attractive to firms then that is their choice. Such a decision will not alleviate the problems in the PIGS economies nor France's unemployment. The UK has chosen not to do that.


What about the £350m a week sent to Brussels?

I have never quoted this figure. The figures I quoted however, indicated that the UK was a substantial net contributor to the EU far in excess of Thatcher-negotiated rebates or EU spending in the UK.


...on the looming threat of a real British far-right...

I'm trying to understand this. So, a country exercises its democratic rights and is given a hostile reception by a supranational entity that was not democratically established and this democratic decision is equated with the rise of Fascism, subservience to Russia and economic self-sabotage?

I am not surprised that the political and financial class who have their offshore funds are using thinly-veiled scare tactics to prompt a redo by electing a government that will not abide by the referendum.

I suppose the elite want to elect another people...

[OUTLAW 09]

Brexit hard to understand for Ukrainians, who fought a war to join Europe
http://buff.ly/291TSSD

Alastair Campbell on "our wretched right-wing, lying, anti-Europe, anti-immigrant right-wing newspapers"
http://ibt.uk/A6Zrv


Stars and Stripes
✔ @starsandstripes One impact of #Brexit is already clear: Germany is suddenly a lot more important to the US http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/germany/us-turns-to-germany-as-crucial-ally-within-eu-as-uk-departs-1.416606 …

Basically Obama/Rhodes never quite got passed the comments....."Merkel is a good friend" and that was about it.....they could not get stating Germany/Merkel are a great ally and state that in public.....

[OUTLAW 09]

UK sites starting to document massive, depressing post-Brexit referendum racism
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-racism_uk_576fe161e4b08d2c56396075 …

This is insane. @AmnestyUK has had to launch an anti-racism campaign in the UK. It's 2016

Thank you Boris, Gove, Priti Patel, IDS & Fascist Farage: Halal butchers shop in Walsall petrol bombed!
http://mend.org.uk/halal-butchers-shop-walsall-petrol-bombed/#.V3K8UprdSmA.twitter

IMHO...the racism and anti immigrant cries being yelled during this vote were designed to cover up the true intent....a total coup on government and the installation of an anti Europe anti immigrant right wing conservative and or UKIP party......nothing more nothing less....fed by Russian money.......over the last 10 years......

When you turn loose the dogs of racism it is extremely hard to recage them as we are now seeing in the UK....and the attacks are increasing daily.....

Sad statement on the condition of the current so called UK democracy.......

[OUTLAW 09]

Another of those Russian "vodka moments"........

Trump on #Brexit: "I was on the right side of that issue as you know. W/ the people, I was there. I said it was going to happen. I felt it."

Hard to believe only three years ago Trump wrote this pro-globalization op-ed
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/22/business/opinion-donald-trump-europe/ …

[Azor]

Azor,

I agree with you, I'm not buying into the hysteria. In less than week After the Brexit referendum the fearmongers have described the end of Europe. Hardly, but there will be market adjustments. I'm buying into the fear. The EU is bigger than free trade, it is increasingly treading on areas of what should be state sovereignty. This is a wake up call, that theoretically presents an opportunity for needed adjustments.

Exactly. Had the EU remained a FTA or Customs Unions there would be no issue, but the Berlaymont seems to want the entire continent to be dominated by German-style socialism. Yet Germany is a unique member of both the EU and NATO for obvious historical reasons, and the member states of the EU should not be led by a people that wants to will itself out of existence.

Commentators are suggesting that Brexit was a coup for Putin, but it wasn't the UK Conservatives or Labour that wanted to reduce sanctions or "mend relations": it was German MPs including members of Merkel's inner circle.

[slapout9]

Exactly. Had the EU remained a FTA or Customs Unions there would be no issue, but the Berlaymont seems to want the entire continent to be dominated by German-style socialism. Yet Germany is a unique member of both the EU and NATO for obvious historical reasons, and the member states of the EU should not be led by a people that wants to will itself out of existence.

Commentators are suggesting that Brexit was a coup for Putin, but it wasn't the UK Conservatives or Labour that wanted to reduce sanctions or "mend relations": it was German MPs including members of Merkel's inner circle.

The EU is nothing but a German financial fourth Reich!

[OUTLAW 09]

Exactly. Had the EU remained a FTA or Customs Unions there would be no issue, but the Berlaymont seems to want the entire continent to be dominated by German-style socialism. Yet Germany is a unique member of both the EU and NATO for obvious historical reasons, and the member states of the EU should not be led by a people that wants to will itself out of existence.

Commentators are suggesting that Brexit was a coup for Putin, but it wasn't the UK Conservatives or Labour that wanted to reduce sanctions or "mend relations": it was German MPs including members of Merkel's inner circle.

Here is the heart of the problem......racism is the key narrative being used by ALL the 11 active European neo rightist so called populist parties that are EVEN in the EU Parilment as per democratic elections.

It is the same 11 neo right populist parties that since 2006 have received great attention by the FSB/SVR via money, internet info war support and invitations to neo right meetings in Russia and I can go on for a long way on this topic.

WHY the EU is open to this is due to their multicultural environments NOt even tied at first to refugees...multicultural stresses internal to their own societies not immigrant issues. Just check the years of internal turmoil in Belgium just over the use of a "language"...or southern Austria and their terrorist groups or ETA.......

AND it is all about the massive side effects of globalization.....AND do not think for a moment that the US is any different.

Check the Trump movement and compare the composition of those that heavily supported Leave....white, in their 50/60s, anti immigrant due to the arugment of overloaded schools, not enough doctors, taken their jobs away that were rationalized away actually under globalaization, falling slaries blamed on cheap immigrants or illegals.

Wake up people this is not rocket science we just need to fully understand these populist movements as they are dangerous as they tip toe along the edge of fascism and do not believe for a second "fascism cannot evolve out of a democracy".......

What is interesting that many do not mention is all the members outside of the founders literally begged to join because they wanted the rural development funding and the single trade market BUT did not want to really do much else.

THIS is the core issue...all new memebers outside of the founders knew what the political price to play was going to be...it was never hidden by the founders and YET all new mouthed their YES but few of them really did want to go along.

Take Greece...Germany openly questioned their application as they sensed the Greeks were lying about their economics and budgets and now we know the Greeks did in fact lie and committed fraud in the figures they provided to join and now they are being bailed out to the tune of over 245BILLION Euros by largely Germany.

Then being bailed out and not having to declare to the world their are literally bankrupt they accuse the "German fourth REICH" for oppressing them......

Get a US bank loan for your house and fall behind as then tell me the bank acts no different than Germany does as the core EU paymaster as they must take it out of tax monies their own citizens paid and they answer to Germans in elections not Greeks, Italians, or Brits.

But in the UK "crsis" pay attention to the core "narrative" and understand that "narrative".

UK has had deep racisim for over 70 odd years and now we see it clearly but they blame the EU "free movement"...as the Brits say..."utter rubbish"....

Example....the Brit fishermen claimed bitterly when they voted to leave...we want our fish back and we are tired of being told what and where and how much to fish.....BUT the Brits were before they joined vastly overfishing the stocks greatly effectively say French and Dutch fishermen.

They somehow have forgotten that the stocks are recovering nicely under this tight control and the EU has slowly eased up as the stocks have recovered...but Brit fishing boats do not match those of the other EU fishers because they have not invested in their business nor taken EU funding to modernize. AND the EU even allows the Brits to take far more cod (for their fishing quotas) and chips than other EU countries...do not ask me what I pay for fresh cod in Berlin vs UK...

But hey it is easier to blame the EU than your own outmoded way of doing business.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Exactly. Had the EU remained a FTA or Customs Unions there would be no issue, but the Berlaymont seems to want the entire continent to be dominated by German-style socialism. Yet Germany is a unique member of both the EU and NATO for obvious historical reasons, and the member states of the EU should not be led by a people that wants to will itself out of existence.

Commentators are suggesting that Brexit was a coup for Putin, but it wasn't the UK Conservatives or Labour that wanted to reduce sanctions or "mend relations": it was German MPs including members of Merkel's inner circle.

You know as an American who is paying Swedish and German taxes, who has a US health insurance policy, who owns a company founded in Sweden and funded by the Germans and who works and resides in Berlin.....

CAN you define for me this so called German "socialism"????

You do know that the German healthcare system is single payer model with the employer, government and the employee sharing a law defined percentage from each....and that you can determine the doctor and services you need by presenting your health ID. You do know that all needed drugs have a 4.50 USD fee which was dropped this year and the rest is free as are the hospitals and all medical testing...

AND you do know that it was Bismarck that instituted this healthcare system in 1891 and I would not called him a "socialist" by any means.

Secondly, let's take the unemployment side....if you have worked for a number of years and you become unemployed you receive for the first year 70% of your salary, then in year two 50% and you get a subsidy for your housing and healthcare BECAUSE the Germans have this weird idea that if you want to work you must have a roof over your head and be healthy...if that is "socialism" ask around what the unemployed get in the various US states.....an interesting comparison.

THIS coverage is paid for out of a percentage determined y the state by the employer and the employee with a minimum from the government thrown in....does not appear to be socialism to me???

THEN if in year three if you still cannot get employment fall into social welfare which is calculated to still cover a portion of your rent and healthcare is virtually free.

THEN if you cannot find anything in your field the government steps in and retrains you into a new field with solid employment opportunities--they pick up the costs of the retraining.

So what happens in the US at this stage.....

Interesting question for all ..WHY is the German business and employment model so highly successful in the export field as well in the internal market and WHY is German so financially strong...THEY simply WANT you to work...WHY...because employment drives consumer sales and savings AND TAX flows.....and a reasonable level of employment ensures a relative good GDP every year.

In the area of export...they have specialized largely in areas of specialization not matched by other countries meaning if you need something "special" it is usually found in Germany. and if they do not have it a company will build it for you.

THEN almost all US employment these days and it had already started in 1995..all employment is "at will"...meaning you can be unemployed any time your employer wants you to be.....in many German companies once you reach a certain employment period you are permanently employed and unless you rob a bank it is until you really do rob a bank with two job reviews a year. Try to find that in the US.

Take then pensioners who are based on having worked in low paying jobs not able to meet the minimum living levels... they receive also this social aid support.....how is that in the US...in bad economic times cat food is their only assistance to survive.....

So a social system funded by the government, your employer and out of your own salary....is again exactly what under US definitions????

Let's take the concept of free higher education....outside of a small student semester fee all university and technical universities are FREE......YES even if you study medicine.....although hard to get into as in the States once in you have no DEBT when you leave because it is free what would US med students say to that?....catch for doctors...when they go into private practice they can only charge X amount as the government says you studied free and this is the return to us the government and the taxpayer who paid for your education....same for lawyers and other specialist fields...absolutely free AS long as you pass your highschool degree.

Let's not even get into the blue collar apprenticeship programs that allow you as a Master Craftsman to go back to Technical Universities to jump to Engineer status ALSO free with a stipend to cover your retraining years since you are not working.

Let's not even get into child day care....in many areas it is free here in Germany....

Again funded by employer, government and taxpayer.

Let's take Sweden my "business homeland" the land of "socialism" their tax burden is a solid "50%" of your salary but all healthcare, social welfare, schools, universities, kindergartens are free and the roads have absolutely "no pot holes" and the employment rates are high.

The Danes have a 40% rate and both have never decided to change...ever wonder why?

UK has a flat rate of 35% taken immediately before you are paid and come nowhere close to matching them and that is even leading to their Leave vote...

Still sound "socialist"???

[OUTLAW 09]

UK will never been able to return to the EU as a member regardless of what is ongoing inside the UK right now for attempts to stay in.

Merkel stated late last night after the informal meeting of the 27 with UK not invited.

"She sees no "wishful thinking that Brexit will be stopped as the democratic process has been conducted and it must be respected as the will of the people" (my comment even if lied to)...so the UK must get on with it even thought she considered it a massive historical mistake.

Here is what UK leaders failed to calculate...yes the EU has problems but consider that it must address the entire needs for 400M people speaking multiple languages and having different cultures to address equally so actually they have not been such a bad job of it.

Having rejected the EU...while UK hopes for and tries to demand compromises to get entry into the single market they just left and to block free movement... a core EU tenant..... each of the EU member states must now protect themselves and the EU and fend off the neo right/fascist tendencies that one from outside is provoking in a deliberate fashion.....

So yes the UK will get an offer to rejoin the single market BUT they will be paying more than they did before leaving and will have no voice in the regulations and legal demands--meaning fulfill them in order to do business or simply do not trade with the EU BUT it will be tied to "free movement" something the UK Leave say they cannot do......

The Leave camps refrain "the EU needs to trade with us" is a total farce...trade substitution will always be found and yes it will be a hiccup for a number of years but the UK will find out their EU trade was not that important to the EU...and all of those car factories UKIP is so proud of....they will be moved to the EU to maintain the tax and tariff benefits for export.

So it looks like the UK will be outside the single market once they leave...UNLESS they shallow their Leave pride and compromise on "free movement"...

Sad really if one thinks about it that the pied piper call of the populist movement UKIP and the Euroseptic wings of Labour and Conservatives in the end destroyed the UK......economically and politically....

Example of how the market moves even inside the EU....after the crash of tech bubble Cisco wanted to cut 400 new factory positions in France (out of an overall total of 1,100) in order to rescue Cisco Europe overall as they had cut far more in the UK and other EU countries in order to continue doing business and not going out of business which would have led then to a high number of lost jobs everywhere in the EU.

Cisco had just built a massive modern 300M USD factory in France and needed to lay off 400 employees out of 900...the French old employment laws and the French government blocked the job loses and stated publicly Cisco would/could never walk away from the new factory...

Cisco held off of the French cuts until the bitter end of all the cutting.....AND then informed the French government and the French unions they were shutting down the complete factory and moving it to Germany....and then laid off all 900 employees and trucked the entire factory to Germany and there was nothing France could do under their employment laws to stop a company from simply closing down a plant and leaving France.

THAT is exactly why in 2016 France is trying to finally modernize their employment and investment laws (actually something the EU has been telling them for years to do but resisted) and being bitterly resisted by the old Communist/Socialist led unions...how many years later??...and
now the unions are "bitching it is the EU

WHEN governments inside the EU make mistakes their civil societies blame automatically the EU BUT not their own governments and their poor governance...which reflects back onto the actions and or no actions taken by their own civil societies....via the democratic ballot box...

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is the heart of the problem......racism is the key narrative being used by ALL the 11 active European neo rightist so called populist parties that are EVEN in the EU Parilment as per democratic elections.

It is the same 11 neo right populist parties that since 2006 have received great attention by the FSB/SVR via money, internet info war support and invitations to neo right meetings in Russia and I can go on for a long way on this topic.

WHY the EU is open to this is due to their multicultural environments NOt even tied at first to refugees...multicultural stresses internal to their own societies not immigrant issues. Just check the years of internal turmoil in Belgium just over the use of a "language"...or southern Austria and their terrorist groups or ETA.......

AND it is all about the massive side effects of globalization.....AND do not think for a moment that the US is any different.

Check the Trump movement and compare the composition of those that heavily supported Leave....white, in their 50/60s, anti immigrant due to the arugment of overloaded schools, not enough doctors, taken their jobs away that were rationalized away actually under globalaization, falling slaries blamed on cheap immigrants or illegals.

Wake up people this is not rocket science we just need to fully understand these populist movements as they are dangerous as they tip toe along the edge of fascism and do not believe for a second "fascism cannot evolve out of a democracy".......

What is interesting that many do not mention is all the members outside of the founders literally begged to join because they wanted the rural development funding and the single trade market BUT did not want to really do much else.

THIS is the core issue...all new memebers outside of the founders knew what the political price to play was going to be...it was never hidden by the founders and YET all new mouthed their YES but few of them really did want to go along.

Take Greece...Germany openly questioned their application as they sensed the Greeks were lying about their economics and budgets and now we know the Greeks did in fact lie and committed fraud in the figures they provided to join and now they are being bailed out to the tune of over 245BILLION Euros by largely Germany.

Then being bailed out and not having to declare to the world their are literally bankrupt they accuse the "German fourth REICH" for oppressing them......

Get a US bank loan for your house and fall behind as then tell me the bank acts no different than Germany does as the core EU paymaster as they must take it out of tax monies their own citizens paid and they answer to Germans in elections not Greeks, Italians, or Brits.

But in the UK "crsis" pay attention to the core "narrative" and understand that "narrative".

UK has had deep racisim for over 70 odd years and now we see it clearly but they blame the EU "free movement"...as the Brits say..."utter rubbish"....

Example....the Brit fishermen claimed bitterly when they voted to leave...we want our fish back and we are tired of being told what and where and how much to fish.....BUT the Brits were before they joined vastly overfishing the stocks greatly effectively say French and Dutch fishermen.

They somehow have forgotten that the stocks are recovering nicely under this tight control and the EU has slowly eased up as the stocks have recovered...but Brit fishing boats do not match those of the other EU fishers because they have not invested in their business nor taken EU funding to modernize. AND the EU even allows the Brits to take far more cod (for their fishing quotas) and chips than other EU countries...do not ask me what I pay for fresh cod in Berlin vs UK...

But hey it is easier to blame the EU than your own outmoded way of doing business.....

This was carried by the main Russian propaganda media outlet Russia Today....

Here is what @realDonaldTrump had to say on the #IstanbulAttack.
...
I repeat: If he gets pres., we are all doomed.

Donald Trump’s lawyer accused @HillaryClinton of murdering an ambassador and selling uranium to Russia in a tweet
http://politi.co/29aLxzK

While populist movements ALWAYS talk about the "little man" and the suffering of the "little man" ever notice how they are led by elites?????

"Trump hasn’t disclosed his taxes. He hasn’t even paid them, as best we know."
http://thebea.st/291hLrB

[OUTLAW 09]

This is interesting...while Hungary voices constant Eurospetic comments from their current government....."they ain't about to leave any time soon".....

Especially since they know what is coming broadside against UK.....

Visegrad Insight @VisegradInsight
House Speaker: Hungary Has No Intention To Leave The European Union
http://hungarytoday.hu/news/house-speaker-hungary-intention-leave-european-union-49729 …

[OUTLAW 09]

NOW the truth wins out in the UK as Leave ran on immigration as the smokescreen using the EU free movement requirement....so for over 40 odd years why did not the UK civil society demand better "governance" via the ballot????

Guardian Opinion
✔ @guardianopinion The key lesson of Brexit is that globalisation must work for all of Britain | Gordon Brown
http://d.gu.com/LgmntG

Populist parties are popular until they are elected

While populist movements ALWAYS talk about the "little man" and the suffering of the "little man" ever notice how they are led by elites?????

The Daily Mail railed against greedy elites? Its editor is a millionaire, its owner is a billionaire
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-conventional-wisdom-on-brexit-isnt-true/2016/06/27/696b5f7c-3c94-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html …

AND the leader of UKIP has been shown by the Panama Papers to have a massive off shore account structure in place.....why....

[OUTLAW 09]

15 maps and charts that explain the EU referendum

http://i100.io/UW6cwsO

[OUTLAW 09]

What civil society accepted reunification internal taxation levels, good governance and EU funding achieves.......

Oranienburger Strasse, Unter den Linden - so sah es 1980 in Ost-Berlin aus - und so heute.
http://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/ost-berlin-1980-2016/

East Berlin 1980 and the streets I often walked in those days as the trams and potholes were really bad and today.....and then after 20:00 it was totally dark and now????

This is the result of good governance/rule of law/transparency and a civil society that paid it's dues via internal taxation and the wise use of EU funds via the ballot....and yet one wonders why they inherently lead the EU??

AND the UK????

[OUTLAW 09]

All have wanted Merkel to led and now she is leading both in Brexit and in Ukraine and the US is not going to like it one bit....

There can be absolutely no elections in eastern Ukraine until there is a complete a formal ceasefire.

Merkel: Die Wahlen in der Donbass ist jetzt unmglich...erst nach der vollstndigen Einstellung des Feuers.

While the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry/Nuland WH is trying desperately to get a peace deal before he leaves for his legacy and is pushing for elections to cave to Russia to get the deal.....

[OUTLAW 09]

AND here is no racism in the main UK political parties......think again......

Boris Johnson for PM group ask if Tories want Muslim chancellor OR ‘British patriot’ #Brexit
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/boris-johnson-for-pm-group-asks-if-tories-want-a-muslim-chancellor-or-a-british-patriot …

[OUTLAW 09]

AND from the Greeks last night.......

In which Tsipras (quite rightly) takes the mickey out of Cameron's crisis-management skills
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b7d9e87e-3d91-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.html#axzz4Cwlvj0FN …

This is how badly some UK MSM know the EU...from today......

So @TheSun thinks Belarus is in the EU

[OUTLAW 09]

‘Mr Cameron told European leaders that Mr Johnson and his fellow Brexit campaigners had “no plan”’

How will EU divy up the City of London? This is base-case: Euro-clearing to Frankfurt and rest to Paris, Amsterdam to avoid #Frexit, #Nexit.
France has already made this plan public. Hollande utterly clear on exactly what he wants Paris to grab from London. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8e0c44a-3d89-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html#axzz4CxmXutzs …

Hollande: free movement key to future UK access to EU market
http://www.unian.info/economics/1390637-hollande-free-movement-key-to-future-uk-access-to-eu-market.html …

Hollande is particularly keen to grab as many banks as he can from London: a sudden rush of banks to Paris could turn his Presidency around.

It is crucial to understand EU must at all costs stop Le Pen winning in 2017. Best way to do this? Reward France the banks and their taxes.

City analysts I met look with unbrindled distain on a Tory leadership class they think are simply muppets. No clue what's about to hit them.

The next Tory muchkin leader would then be a hideous position: have his tax base slashed at by loss of banks as his voters rejoice.

British public will be left moronically clapping the huge triumph of a few less Poles and the punishment for "bankers" and tax base slashed.

Paris and Frankfurt would emerge as enormous winners by ending passporting. Hugely boosting popularity of French and German leadership.

Msg to Tory leadership hopefuls: Merkel said yesterday 'no cherry picking', i.e. UK/EU options like 'Norway minus free movement' won't fly

[OUTLAW 09]

Between the US and the "new UK," everything will need to be reinvented:
http://brook.gs/292kln8

[OUTLAW 09]

‘Mr Cameron told European leaders that Mr Johnson and his fellow Brexit campaigners had “no plan”’

How will EU divy up the City of London? This is base-case: Euro-clearing to Frankfurt and rest to Paris, Amsterdam to avoid #Frexit, #Nexit.
France has already made this plan public. Hollande utterly clear on exactly what he wants Paris to grab from London. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8e0c44a-3d89-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html#axzz4CxmXutzs …

Hollande: free movement key to future UK access to EU market
http://www.unian.info/economics/1390637-hollande-free-movement-key-to-future-uk-access-to-eu-market.html …

Hollande is particularly keen to grab as many banks as he can from London: a sudden rush of banks to Paris could turn his Presidency around.

It is crucial to understand EU must at all costs stop Le Pen winning in 2017. Best way to do this? Reward France the banks and their taxes.

City analysts I met look with unbrindled distain on a Tory leadership class they think are simply muppets. No clue what's about to hit them.

The next Tory muchkin leader would then be a hideous position: have his tax base slashed at by loss of banks as his voters rejoice.

British public will be left moronically clapping the huge triumph of a few less Poles and the punishment for "bankers" and tax base slashed.

Paris and Frankfurt would emerge as enormous winners by ending passporting. Hugely boosting popularity of French and German leadership.

Msg to Tory leadership hopefuls: Merkel said yesterday 'no cherry picking', i.e. UK/EU options like 'Norway minus free movement' won't fly

Light humor.....
I'm shocked, shocked that France sees Brexit as an opportunity for predatory economic benefit at Britain's expense.

[OUTLAW 09]

Siemens a German company and five other top EU companies in UK are now indicating they will be pulling out after Brexit process starts....

EU car producers are indicating they will long term being pulling out as well...over 450K UK jobs are tied to their staying inside the single market BUT the EU has stated openly, directly and concisely only with free movement...BUT Leave said no to free movement.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Secret video from the Boris HQ as the result came in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ&feature=youtu.be …

UK Brexit leader Farage praises Putin, slams Obama
http://dlvr.it/LgvPF9

[OUTLAW 09]

The EU single market for goods, services, people and capital is one and indivisible. You are a member or not. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/06/29-tusk-remarks-informal-meeting-27/ …

Brexit bargain-hunting? Qatar Air to Explore Raising Stake in British Airways Owner
http://bloom.bg/29osttM

Interesting read.....
Britain has picked the wrong time to play games, writes @edwardhadas:
http://reut.rs/294dOnX

[OUTLAW 09]

Brilliant by @peterpomeranzev on his last few days in Brexit London.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2016/06/29/peter-pomerantsev/taking-control/ …


The blind man is still playing his tin whistle during rush hour at Green Park station and all the streets look the same, but the inner mental map I have of the world, the one that places me in a network of structures and institutions, has gone. The chain of associations I grew up with – me, London, England, United Kingdom, Europe – has buckled. Simple language loses meaning: What does ‘out’ actually mean? Or ‘in’? Or ‘the UK’?

On Facebook everyone made sense of the vote according to the way they see the world. Because I study propaganda, I put it all down to that. Others said: ‘It’s austerity! Inequality! The economy!’ Yet others pointed out that affluent shires voted Brexit while poor parts of Scotland voted to Remain. ‘It’s identity! Immigration!’ Someone else pointed out that places with no immigration voted Leave too. ‘It’s generational!’ Everyone began to blame their parents.

I itched for things to do. I signed four or maybe five petitions and then realised I didn’t agree with them. Someone called and told me there was a meeting to organise resistance at a flat in East London. I went along. Everyone was trying to decide what to do next.


‘This is about protecting the liberties and rights we have grown up with! We need to reframe the case for Europe as British liberties!’
‘It’s not about liberties! It’s about fairness!’
‘We’ll take a bus to the North to show them how much Europe does for them!’
‘Look at us! They won’t listen to us!’
‘We need to listen to them!’
‘We need to stop fascism!’

Everyone could agree on that last one. We broke up into ‘committees’ for communications, campaigning, political lobbying. The man next to me had flow charts on his laptop: Brexit was inevitable; the UK would break apart; Scotland would leave; England and Wales would have a rump parliament; it would be a virtual one party state dominated by Ukip-sympathising Tories.

We needed to think several steps ahead. Create a new party. Reform voting so it lets us in. Push for massive devolution for London. The UK might be gone. We might be out of the EU. But if London’s citizens had all the old freedoms to move and work in the EU, if businesses could still have their financial passport to operate in the EU from London, then London could be saved. What mattered was staying in the single market. The EU might be gone but there was still the European Economic Area. We would get the same deal as Norway.

The present was a mystery, I thought the next morning, but I would be fine because I knew the future. ‘There is smoke on the platform at Baker Street,’ the tube driver said. ‘But don’t worry, it’s nothing dangerous.’

Then someone texted me to say they’d talked to someone in the City who knew someone in Brussels who knew someone in Paris. The UK wouldn’t get a good EEA deal. There would be no financial passport. Instead we would be offered access to the single market with no concessions on immigration. Number 10 would have to insist on a curb on immigration to appease the anti-immigration Leavers. London would lose both freedom of movement and the financial passport. Paris would become the new London. We wouldn’t be Norway. I wondered if the government was getting Brussels to offer a bad deal on purpose so they could go back for a second referendum.

At Green Park the blind man was still playing his tin whistle. I bought all the papers. I hadn’t bought a newspaper for years, looking at them online instead, but I wanted to see if I could read the runes and find a pattern. I spread them out on Berkeley Square. Birds ran over them.

The Mail and the Sun were both stressing the financial dangers of Brexit and appeared to support staying in the free market, immigration be damned. The Telegraph too. All of them. In tune! Why the change? Suddenly the master plan seemed obvious. The moguls had used fear of immigration to get a Leave vote, but would now campaign for staying in the single market with no real barriers to immigration but released from EU obligations to protect workers. A libertarian plot! It all made sense. Hadn’t Boris Johnson and the editor of the Mail spent 9 June – or so I’d heard – in a closed room in Mark’s Club, with a small ladder blocking the door so no one could get in?

Stop, I thought: you’re being conspiratorial. But aren’t conspiracies sometimes true? I stood on Charles Street and peered at Mark’s Club. Maybe if I hung around I would notice who was going in and coming out, and that would tell me something more about what was going on.

I bought some sandwiches and settled in, surrounded by my newspapers. It struck me that I’d been here before. The confusion, impromptu meetings, conspiracy and superstition were what I had observed, with condescending Britishness, in revolutionary Ukraine; in Tbilisi, Southern Italy and Spain. We are leaving the EU but have become far more European – part of the messy Europe that Brexit is supposed to free us from. The Europe that EU bureaucrats think needs fixing. The Europe that wants to enter the EU in order to be fixed.

[Azor]

Outlaw 09:

I’ll start off by apprising you that the FTSE 100 is above its June 23 close as of this moment, and that while the FTSE 250 is down ~7.47% from its June 23 close, it is higher than it was during the corrections in January and February of this year. :)


Here is the heart of the problem......racism is the key narrative being used by ALL the 11 active European neo rightist so called populist parties that are EVEN in the EU Parilment [sic] as per democratic elections. It is the same 11 neo right populist parties that since 2006 have received great attention by the FSB/SVR via money, internet info war support and invitations to neo right meetings in Russia and I can go on for a long way on this topic.

Firstly, I completely disagree that it is racist or xenophobic to want to control who is allowed to reside in one’s country, especially when people who are opposed to one’s values want in merely to take advantage of welfare benefits and economic opportunities.

Secondly, the GRU and SVR have supported political organizations on both the far-right and the far-left. The European far-left, which believes that Europe is inherently bad and pushes for the self-abnegation of Europe, is just as disruptive and bears much of the blame for attempting to transform Europe into a more temperate version of Africa and West Asia.


Wake up people this is not rocket science we just need to fully understand these populist movements as they are dangerous as they tip toe along the edge of fascism and do not believe for a second "fascism cannot evolve out of a democracy".......

The threat of fascism being imposed via democracy, which is how the NSDAP came to power initially, should not mean that Europeans should engage in self-abnegation, especially as these newcomers who are so eager to contribute their “cultural richness” believe in authoritarianism if not totalitarianism and regard liberal democracy as weak.


…all new members outside of the founders knew what the political price to play was going to be...it was never hidden by the founders and YET all new mouthed their YES but few of them really did want to go along. Take Greece...Germany openly questioned their application as they sensed the Greeks were lying about their economics and budgets and now we know the Greeks did in fact lie and committed fraud in the figures they provided to join and now they are being bailed out to the tune of over 245BILLION Euros by largely Germany. Then being bailed out and not having to declare to the world their are literally bankrupt they accuse the "German fourth REICH" for oppressing them......

Yet the Western bankers, British and German included, knew that Greece was a basket case but bet heavily on the ECB backstopping the profligate Greeks. The Germans seem content to be substantial net contributors to the EU as part of their post-war “atonement” although they do benefit from a more competitive Euro than would be the case if they had retained the DM.


…the Brit fishermen claimed bitterly when they voted to leave...

The English did not vote for Brexit because of fisheries…


CAN you define for me this so called German "socialism"????

I referred to it as “German” because Germany had been subjected to NSDAP rule and was a loser in both World Wars. Therefore, the German variant is unique because it encompasses national guilt over the war, war crimes and genocide. Merkel, who is nominally a member of the CDU, has publicly stated that Germany’s atonement should include allowing in all migrants and German socialists have stated that Germany should be settled by non-Germans. The issue here is not whether the state or private enterprise should deliver goods and services (I firmly believe in the state’s role), but Germany’s attempt to will itself out of existence and the proliferation of that desire in Western Europe and increasingly North America and Australasia.


UK will never been able to return to the EU as a member regardless of what is ongoing inside the UK right now for attempts to stay in.

Is the British government attempting to overrule the referendum? Not that I can see as yet. However, I have heard that behind closed doors, the British and the Europeans are working on the beginnings of a FTA. The anger of the Eurocrats such as Juncker, confirms that the non-UK EU regarded the UK as not only a source of subsidies but as a vital export market.


…each of the EU member states must now protect themselves and the EU and fend off the neo right/fascist tendencies that one from outside is provoking in a deliberate fashion

Are you referring to the UK or Russia here?


…So yes the UK will get an offer to rejoin the single market BUT they will be paying more than they did before leaving and will have no voice in the regulations and legal demands--meaning fulfill them in order to do business or simply do not trade with the EU BUT it will be tied to "free movement" something the UK Leave say they cannot do...

Even if the UK joins the EFTA, it does not have to join Schengen. While the UK would have to allow in the proverbial Polish plumber, any of Merkel’s children or the undesirables of Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania (read Roma) can be deported.


...trade substitution will always be found and yes it will be a hiccup for a number of years but the UK will find out their EU trade was not that important to the EU...and all of those car factories UKIP is so proud of....they will be moved to the EU to maintain the tax and tariff benefits for export.

Again, you have yet to refute my numbers that clearly show that the EU exports more to the UK than visa versa, and that UK exports to the EU have been steadily declining since 2000. If the EU can find a replacement market for the UK, then the UK can find a replacement market for the EU. In any event, EU manufacturers will be worse off than UK ones.


…the populist movement UKIP and the Eurosceptic wings of Labour and Conservatives in the end destroyed the UK......economically and politically

It is clear that the EU and its proponents have no respect for British democracy. On the one hand, you criticize Russia for being Fascist (authoritarian nationalist), but on the other you are derisive and hysterical when it comes to democracy being exercised in the UK. So to be clear, you are merely supporting one bloc bent on consolidating its power and expanding its reach against another with similar objectives.


WHEN governments inside the EU make mistakes their civil societies blame automatically the EU BUT not their own governments and their poor governance...which reflects back onto the actions and or no actions taken by their own civil societies....via the democratic ballot box...

The UK’s withdrawal from the EU is only the beginning of a long struggle to regain control over its borders. The “Social Justice Warriors” in the courts and parliament remain powerful, but at least the ones in Brussels and Strasbourg have been tackled. I completely agree that the EU has been blamed for domestic errors, and it wasn’t Brussels that forced Berlin to welcome over one million migrants or for the UK and Sweden to establish Sharia zones. Nevertheless, Brexit is a good starting point for the UK.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor
...unless you can discuss the actual border controls imposed by Europe and the Warsaw Pact from say 1967 to 1991 and have experienced them and then have been issued a Schengen "Title" to free cross border travel within the EU with the exception of the UK then you really cannot comment on the issue of "free movement". I still have the passport stamps and with the Warsaw Pact crossings...fond memory of their strip searches.....

If you heard the President of the EU Council who stated yesterday that he has told his Commissioners there will be no private talks with anyone connected to the UK nor will he allow UK to contact them.....so I am not so sure where you heard there are "private discussions"......

If you heard today Tusk state there cannot be access to the single market with acceptance of the free movement of labor which is one of the core EU Four Freedoms and that the UK cannot cherry pick.

If you heard Jaguar state that they might in fact have to move to the EU to continue to do business as has Nissan so stated as well....

And if you heard Cameron in Parliament today when someone asked if their were other options like going the WTO route he stated that with WTO tariffs of 10% on cars and say 34% on milk products that route would not work and he stated one the single market is the way forward....

If you have seen comments by other traders it is not hard in the least bit to shift EU trade and the UK imports most of their agricultural products and most of the finished goods coming in are just in time supply chain deliveries for manufacturers ie auto etc......

They can simply move the factories to EU and the supply chain moves with them....thus trade flows can actually be shifted easier than many think......we saw this inside the EU with Russian sanctions

EU....The Four Freedoms which constitute the core beliefs of the EU and you cannot pick and choose....


Chapter 1: Free Movement of Goods

The free movement of goods is one of the freedoms of the single market of the European Union. Since January 1993, controls on the movement of goods within the internal market have been abolished and the European Union is now a single territory without internal frontiers. The abolition of customs tariffs promotes intra-Community trade, which accounts for a large part of the total imports and exports of the Member States.

Chapter 2: Freedom of movement for workers

As one of the fundamental freedoms guaranteed by European Union (EU) Law, freedom of movement for workers, pursuant to Article 45 TFEU (ex. Article 39 ECT), guarantees every EU citizen the right to move freely, to stay and to work in another member state. Some exceptions can only be made in the public sector. This freedom applies to all member states' citizens regadless of nationality as well as to the European Economic Area (Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway). In relation to free access to labour market, this chapter considers nondiscriminatory treatment of workers who are legally employed in a country other than their country of origin. It means that discrimination on the basis of nationality, residence and/or language is not permissible and it also includes equal treatment in basic employment conditions, remuneration, dismissal and the receipt of social advantages.

Furthermore, certain rights are also extended to family members of the worker. Implications and concept of this freedom have been further interpreted and developed by the case-law of the ECJ, including the notion of worker itself. Provisions related to supplementary pension rights of employed and self-employed persons moving within the EU are also included in the general principles of freedom of movement for workers.

Chapter 3: Right of establishment and freedom to provide services

This chapter covers a large variety of fields and professions and involves many public and/or semi-public institutions and bodies and it is of a horizontal nature. As laid down in the Articles 49 and 56 of the TFEU It is the obligation of Member States to ensure unhampered right of establishment of EU nationals and legal persons in any Member State and the freedom to provide cross-border services. Exceptions to this rule are set out in the Treaty. Directive 2006/123 on services in the internal market ('Services Directive'), largely based on the case law of the European Court of Justice, represents the core piece of acquis in this area. The objective of this Directive is to achieve a genuine Internal Market in services. This is to be done by removing barriers (both legal and administrative) to the development of service activities between Member States.

Comprehensive examination of the Member States’ current and future legal order is therefore required for achevement of this objective, and aim of the examination is to identify legal or administrative obstacles on national, regional or local level not compatible with EU law. Member States need to take a combination of legislative and non-legislative measures for the implementation of the Services Directive. As a horizontal instrument, Directive covers a broad range of different services and affects a significant number of national laws and regulations.

Chapter 4: Free movement of capital

All restrictions on movement of capital both within the EU and between Member States and third countries have to be removed, certain exceptions aside. The acquis in this area is based on the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, in particular Articles 63-66. Annex I of Directive 88/361/EEC provides the definition of the different types of capital movements. Additional interpretation of the above Articles is provided by relevant case-law of the European Court of Justice and Commission Communications 97/C220/06 and 2005/C293/02.


BTW..one issue the UK wanted to side step by Leave not was recognizing the ECJ.....this is what they meant by "the EU controlling our right to make our own laws and regulations"....

NOTICE the European Court of Justice is an inherent part an parcel of the Four Fredoms..so if they want to access the single market then they must also accept the ECJ.....which Leave rejects as they do Free Movement. Part Three was also agitating the Leave side......check out why the UK laws had to conform to EU law/regulations by reading Part Three......

So how in the heck are they to access the single market when they do not accept the Four Freedoms and the EU will not give ground on any of them...

Reference the EEA...this is a pay and play group and the fees are not the lowest and in the case of the UK will be higher than the regular EU fees AND the UK will have no voice in the decisions of the EU.

Reference the protection of EU citizens in UK and the UK citizens in the EU...the UK MUST accept Freedom of Movement as that regulates and protects each others citizens.....where ever they reside in the EU.....the Leave talks about this but then says we will place restrictions ie Points System on those coming into the UK....including EU citizens......so you do not think the EU will not reciprocate equally with restrictions on UK citizens......

You really think this is going to end well for UK??????

Populism: the end game
http://wpo.st/blUj1

.@mlafontrapnouil of @ECFRParis explains France, Germany and Ireland are all interested in taking pieces of the City of London if UK Leaves.

.@mlafontrapnouil of @ECFRParis says: "Now no EU leader will ever call for a referendum on EU membership again unless want to leave."

.@mlafontrapnouil says @ECFRParis French view a British Norway option doubtfully: "That is viewed as everything the UK voted against."

.@mlafontrapnouil of @ECFRParis says the French position is: "Leave means Leave, and default status is WTO status."

.@mlafontrapnouil the head of @ECFRParis says France wants Article 50 invoked now.

[OUTLAW 09]

EU tells UK single market access requires full free movement
http://reut.rs/290Fk3f

The pound worth LESS THAN THE EURO at Orly airport
https://twitter.com/pusher555/status/748132282557407232 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Swedish mother told to "f*** off back to your own country" when speaking Swedish with her kids in York. #Brexit
http://m.yorkpress.co.uk/news/14584958.Swedish_mum_in_York_told_______off_back_t o_your_own_country_/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Without the UK....

New EU summit September 16 in Bratislava to discuss Brexit: Tusk
http://europe.liveuamap.com/en/2016/29-june-new-eu-summit-september-16-in-bratislava-to-discuss …

EU is awaiting the UK Article 50 then with the UK indicating their new PM in place on Sept 9....the EU is moving now faster than the UK anticipated......

[Azor]

...unless you can discuss the actual border controls imposed by Europe and the Warsaw Pact from say 1967 to 1991 and have experienced them and then have been issued a Schengen "Title" to free cross border travel within the EU with the exception of the UK then you really cannot comment on the issue of "free movement". I still have the passport stamps and with the Warsaw Pact crossings...fond memory of their strip searches…

I don’t know how the WP/CMEA border controls are relevant to the debate over Brexit. Strip searches and other harassment was common at those crossings as the guards were well aware that people were smuggling in hard Western currency to relatives behind the Iron Curtain. It is one thing to be able to get a close look at one’s adversary; it is quite another to deal with hidden pockets and mostly blacked-out letters because one’s loved ones are in that adversary’s clutches…


…there cannot be access to the single market with acceptance of the free movement of labor which is one of the core EU Four Freedoms and that the UK cannot cherry pick.

Free trade deals with the EU are possible, along the lines of the Canadian or Israeli deals. Note that both the UK and Ireland as EU members had opted out of the Schengen Agreement, as has Svalbard in Norway (EFTA). Switzerland is a member of the EFTA but not the EEA and has signed a FTA with the EU. Denmark and Poland are two other EU members who have opt-outs to EU protocols and the Czech Republic is considering one as well.

A number of Leave voters are protectionist and want to restrict European workers from working in the UK. However, from what I have seen, the Leave concern is primarily with non-working migrants entering the UK by way of the EU and then claiming British benefits, in particular migrants crossing from Calais through the Chunnel (originally from Africa and West Asia) and Roma families from Eastern Europe. Norway is not obligated to support non-working migrants from the EU the way it would be if it was an EU member state.


Reference the EEA...this is a pay and play group and the fees are not the lowest and in the case of the UK will be higher than the regular EU fees AND the UK will have no voice in the decisions of the EU…British Norway option doubtful…

Actually, the UK’s payments to the EFTA would be ~87% lower according to this analysis (http://euquestion.blogspot.ca/2016/04/the-cost-of-eu-membership-versus-efta.html)


…the European Court of Justice is an inherent part an parcel of the Four Freedoms..so if they want to access the single market then they must also accept the ECJ.....which Leave rejects as they do Free Movement. Part Three was also agitating the Leave side......check out why the UK laws had to conform to EU law/regulations by reading Part Three...

The ECJ does not apply to the EEA, which has a separate EFTA Court, and the EFTA Court does not apply to Switzerland.

No one knows how Brexit will play out and the demand for certainty now is only creating uncertainty. No amount of post-Brexit corporate soundbites intended to frighten Britons have any bearing on firms' capital allocations over the next 5-10 years.

The UK stock market clearly regards Brexit as less worrisome than the monetary policy divergence started by the US Fed in December, and its subsequent asset revaluations.

The European Council and Commission's poor behavior in light of Brexit only confirms the disdain for national democracy and illuminates Brussels' desire to create a United States of Europe.

Remember the American example of state vs. super-state competition? Remember how American casualty rates among fighting men were on par with the Soviet-German experience from 1940-1945? Not to be hyperbolic but the EU is the creator of its own problems, due to its desire for top-down central control at the expense of national assemblies.

From a cultural perspective, the role of Germany has proved dangerous. I take the British view from the 1920s, that the German national "star" should join the galaxy of other nations. Well, unfortunately, Germany did a supernova and almost wiped out a number of other stars. The Allies tried to keep Germany as a dwarf star, but it has collapsed in on itself and is crushing the rest of Europe with the power of its own self-destruction. And the British said, no thanks. Hopefully Merkel has her own bunker in Berlin for when her "children" come looking for some spending money...

[davidbfpo]

I note an earlier post where once again Hitler last days in a bunker is used to explain.

Far better is Doreen, a comedian from The Black Country (to the west of Birmingham), whose use of "Yam, Yam" and other words is far, far better in describing where she finds herself. Views count: 1.6m views. Behind the humour is an all too accurate description of where she is, just maybe in Birmingham too:https://www.facebook.com/doreentiptonlazycow/videos/vb.305648292893605/543995285725570/?type=2&theater

[Azor]

I note an earlier post where once again Hitler last days in a bunker is used to explain.

Far better is Doreen, a comedian from The Black Country (to the west of Birmingham), whose use of "Yam, Yam" and other words is far, far better in describing where she finds herself. Views count: 1.6m views. Behind the humour is an all too accurate description of where she is, just maybe in Birmingham too:https://www.facebook.com/doreentiptonlazycow/videos/vb.305648292893605/543995285725570/?type=2&theater


Outstanding! Now there's British humour for you...

Do you really want to lose the British sense of humour to the hysterics in Southern Europe or the German literalists (as Le Carre would have it)? ;)

[OUTLAW 09]

I don’t know how the WP/CMEA border controls are relevant to the debate over Brexit. Strip searches and other harassment was common at those crossings as the guards were well aware that people were smuggling in hard Western currency to relatives behind the Iron Curtain. It is one thing to be able to get a close look at one’s adversary; it is quite another to deal with hidden pockets and mostly blacked-out letters because one’s loved ones are in that adversary’s clutches…



Free trade deals with the EU are possible, along the lines of the Canadian or Israeli deals. Note that both the UK and Ireland as EU members had opted out of the Schengen Agreement, as has Svalbard in Norway (EFTA). Switzerland is a member of the EFTA but not the EEA and has signed a FTA with the EU. Denmark and Poland are two other EU members who have opt-outs to EU protocols and the Czech Republic is considering one as well.

A number of Leave voters are protectionist and want to restrict European workers from working in the UK. However, from what I have seen, the Leave concern is primarily with non-working migrants entering the UK by way of the EU and then claiming British benefits, in particular migrants crossing from Calais through the Chunnel (originally from Africa and West Asia) and Roma families from Eastern Europe. Norway is not obligated to support non-working migrants from the EU the way it would be if it was an EU member state.



Actually, the UK’s payments to the EFTA would be ~87% lower according to this analysis (http://euquestion.blogspot.ca/2016/04/the-cost-of-eu-membership-versus-efta.html)



The ECJ does not apply to the EEA, which has a separate EFTA Court, and the EFTA Court does not apply to Switzerland.

No one knows how Brexit will play out and the demand for certainty now is only creating uncertainty. No amount of post-Brexit corporate soundbites intended to frighten Britons have any bearing on firms' capital allocations over the next 5-10 years.

The UK stock market clearly regards Brexit as less worrisome than the monetary policy divergence started by the US Fed in December, and its subsequent asset revaluations.

The European Council and Commission's poor behavior in light of Brexit only confirms the disdain for national democracy and illuminates Brussels' desire to create a United States of Europe.

Remember the American example of state vs. super-state competition? Remember how American casualty rates among fighting men were on par with the Soviet-German experience from 1940-1945? Not to be hyperbolic but the EU is the creator of its own problems, due to its desire for top-down central control at the expense of national assemblies.

From a cultural perspective, the role of Germany has proved dangerous. I take the British view from the 1920s, that the German national "star" should join the galaxy of other nations. Well, unfortunately, Germany did a supernova and almost wiped out a number of other stars. The Allies tried to keep Germany as a dwarf star, but it has collapsed in on itself and is crushing the rest of Europe with the power of its own self-destruction. And the British said, no thanks. Hopefully Merkel has her own bunker in Berlin for when her "children" come looking for some spending money...

Azor ....more examples of the so called "racism" that has been inherent for literally years before the EU entry and which was exploited to drive the Leave vote....

A good Brit friend of mine from Cisco days who had badly speaking the last name Khan .....his family was literally British living in UK for over 70 odd years before taking a big risk and jumping to Mali where they setup a large farm, paid their black employees a solid wage for those days and then exported the products to the UK....

ALL the time UK passport holders and with full British citizenship...

THEN geopolitical politics struck and their farm was taken from them by the Mali government and they were given 72 hours to leave Mali...THEN they tried to to reenter the UK by going to the Kenyan UK Embassy and were turned away....AS UK passport holders.....

THEN they then spent four years in a refugee camp near the Kenyan capital awaiting an immigration number to enter the country they had lived in for over 70 odd years before leaving.

NOW sit back think about it and tell me that was not racist and massively controlling even former UK citizens and UK passport holders.

And the UK complains now about free movement of labor..come on Azor think....

NOW from my experiences with the UK immigration that I experienced up front and personal....which goes to what the Leave side claims they want to get back to......

In 1997, I was approached by Cisco UK and offered for the tech days a really really solid salary, housing paid, a fistful of stock options, fuel card and a car of my choice just to come to the UK...why I was at that time only one of four with a certain specialty in the IT/internet world AND automatically paying 35% tax burden up front. BTW that fistful of options with splits made me a paper millionaire as they did for a large bunch of UK tech types as well.

THEN Cisco applied for the tech visa which at that time took an average of 1-2 months to get usually via a law firm....four months later they were still waiting with the work visa side with the UK constantly adding new requirements that had to be fulfilled with the reasoning you must first hire a qualified Brit then a "foreigner".....WELL at that time Cisco even proved based on the available unemployed Brits that they were all under qualified and no one in the UK matched my skill sets.

Well then in typical US fashion the workaround kicked in .....I came in as a paid Consultant to Cisoc UK from Cisco US and worked until the visa actually came through two months later.

When I arrived in Heathrow with seven bags an a smile on my face...the Immigration Officer asked me the reason for my visit...confident response...visiting...he looked at the seven bags and said for how long ...oh a couple of months and then onto Europe for an extended tourist visit in a number of countries.......passport stamped and in we came.... maybe I was "white" but maybe that was not the reason.......

Then when the work visa arrived the single UK requirement was it had to be validated at a UK Embassy or Consulate OUTSIDE the UK.....the UK law firm said.....take the first early morning plane to Brussels and then go by taxi to the UK Embassy and stand there until they open, present the visa and pay a small fee and then enjoy Brussles and fly back in the evening. We did, got the visa and enjoyed a day in Brussels before flying back....

WHY Brussels..various UK law firms viewed it as being a "tech visa friendly Embassy"....even the UK Immigration knew the workaround as they smiled when I returned with absolutely no bagge supposedly coming from the States via Brussels and on to London.....come on Azor think......

They did not even check the entry stamps of any of the airports in my passport....

So my friend if this is the system as stated by BoJo......"a points based system based on need"..is implemented...WELL that was exactly what I was with my visa.....you are being fooled that it is a great system and it will work ........

It did not in 1997 and it will not in 2016....ask my friend also just how UK passport holders are treated with the WRONG last name....then ask yourself...no racism in the UK...come on think....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...BTW the 2plus increase in both FTSEs was investment funds picking up great deals on old guard solid UK stocks that were badly hit and way below their true values ie the Chinese buying into Branson's assets which were reduced by 33%.

The key point you missed is that the FTSE 100 fell a total of 9% and the 250 fell over 14% so they have a long long way to go to even recover to their original pricing values and may never recovery.

Secondly, it is the GPB that needs to be watched....it has never traded under 1.40 for more than one day in it's entire history....it tanked to 1.31 and has only climbed TWO CENTS....not much of a recovery is it????

BTW....this is just how bad the GBP has been hit......

Kyrgyzstan: Hey, this Brexit thing not so bad. It gained over 134% against the GBP....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...this is even more incidental evidence that fellow Brits working in the EU do not believe that the UK will not be able to guarantee their current EU rights as BoJo and even UKIP has repeatedly stated during Leave and after....

Those residing in EU know the requirements to remain and it all hinges on Freedom of Movement that the Leave and UKIP was totally against....AND the EU repeated yesterday are not up for negotiations on.....as it is a core EU value.

Hectic morning in a Brussels completely dominated by Brexit mechanics. Meeting many UK nationals seeking Irish or other EU citizenship.
There are a large number here......

BTW these Brits did not have the right to vote in Brexit and that is so called UK democracy hard at work....even expat Turkish citizens can vote in their national elections and the EU even helped Turkey setup polling stations in a large number of communities.....THAT my friend is real democracy hard at work....

BUT WAIT Turks are just lousy immigrants taking advantage of our social system would be the UK argument of Leave.....think Azor think.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you send an unusual amount of time trying to discredit my comments on the financial disaster about to hit the UK and even argue well goin another will balance it all out in the end..exactly what Leave has arued repeatedly for years.

WELL this is from the Economist Intelligence Unit......

Alex White
‏@AlexWhite1812
twitter.com/alexwhite1812/status/748194632295649280 …


EIU Brexit Take

1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained

2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy

3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017

4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24

5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises

6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018......(My NOTE...getting close to Greek standards....)

7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)

8. While this is going on, politics will remain deeply fractious. The Govt, the main parties, parliament & the Union all face big threats

9. We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...BTW....the biggest threat now is that UKIP is going to go after the dissatisfied Labour voters which they can in fact draw in making them the second strongest party and on the far right of the political spectrum.

This was after the results were announced is clearly what the UKIP leader stated he would in fact do...but no one "heard him"...Europe did.

Yesterday the largest donor to UKIP stated they are changing their name to make them sound far more serious....the first step on this path if you ask me....

So was the Leave referendum really the start to setup long term project to get a major far right party ruling UK??????

IMHO...yes it was.......using immigration and bashing EU as the smokescreen to hide their true intentions and when the pain truly hits all of the UK then even more will follow the "pied piper".

People love populist parties until their are elected.....remember that when this happens...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you send an unusual amount of time trying to discredit my comments on the financial disaster about to hit the UK and even argue well goin another will balance it all out in the end..exactly what Leave has arued repeatedly for years.

WELL this is from the Economist Intelligence Unit......

Alex White
‏@AlexWhite1812
twitter.com/alexwhite1812/status/748194632295649280 …

EIU Brexit Take

1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained

2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy

3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017

4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24

5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises

6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018......(My NOTE...getting close to Greek standards....)

7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)

8. While this is going on, politics will remain deeply fractious. The Govt, the main parties, parliament & the Union all face big threats

9. We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead

Anders Östlund @andersostlund
My guess on #Brexit: British establishment will wait for the pain to felt across UK, then fully or partly ignore result of the referendum.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.......here is the fallacy in thinking of many in the UK and that includes UKIP and the two major parties.

The Article 50 trigger states that once it is triggered it must be completed inside two years....this plan is mainly how the UK will detangle itself, legally and financially from the EU and how it envisions going forward with the EU.

Then the EU will approve or disapproved whatever plan the UK presents to stay in the single market....if it wants to but then they will state the costs as well to stay associated.

THIS is to happen all inside a maximum of two years .......

Then the EU will approve whatever comes out of the talks...once approved again inside the two years....all ties are cut immediately to the UK...end of story.

All the Leavers had calculated that EU funding would still flow until all laws, finances and trade were worked out which will take the UK up to an estimated 15 years to finally get under control.....

Nope......once the plan is approved and that must be done inside two years...UK is on it own and nothing further flows from the EU that is exactly why the Leavers are trying to drag out triggering Article 50...

Interesting that they never said that during the referendum campaign....ever wonder why?????

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you cannot make this up any more...the core driver on the Conservative side to Leave was BoJo....AND then realizing he was to going into history as the one triggering Article 50....and delivering economic pain to UK.... simply drops out...what the heck is this as an example of UK democracy...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/michael-gove-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-downing-street

Mustn't forget amid the Gove/Johnson circus that the real scrutiny and focus of attention should be on Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre.

Our nation's rulers (Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre) have just announced the nomination for their Prime Minister: it's Michael Gove.

On Monday @rupertmurdoch said Gove "most principled and most able” candidate & "could run a fine government”. Three days later he's running

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you cannot make this up any more...the core driver on the Conservative side to Leave was BoJo....AND then realizing he was to going into history as the one triggering Article 50....and delivering economic pain to UK.... simply drops out...what the heck is this as an example of UK democracy...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/michael-gove-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-downing-street

Mustn't forget amid the Gove/Johnson circus that the real scrutiny and focus of attention should be on Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre.

Our nation's rulers (Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre) have just announced the nomination for their Prime Minister: it's Michael Gove.

On Monday @rupertmurdoch said Gove "most principled and most able” candidate & "could run a fine government”. Three days later he's running

In light of today's events, this by @NickCohen4 on Gove & Johnson, the worst of liars, is well worth a read: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars …

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....heads up......

WTO is bearable for goods but impossible for services which requires freedom of movement. 80% of UK exports are services

BUT WAIT even Cameron ruled out the WTO tariffs on goods which would making them non competitive worldwide....

Everyone is talking about doing deals with Canada, Australia etc....BUT WAIT they already have preferential trade agreements with EU which will cause UK a hard time to agree around.....

Asked whether EU/UK trade on 3rd country (WTO) terms would damage EU economies too @MalmstromEU answered "yes, but the vote was very clear"

[OUTLAW 09]

People follow populist parties until they are elected.....

Perfect example of this is UKIP and Trump.........


One of the major stumbling blocks in Donald Trump's ability to raise money from deep-pocket donors, other than his lethal combination of sloth and arrogance, has been his carrying as a "loan" to his campaign some $50 million. By carrying it as a loan rather than a contribution, Trump would be legally able to take the money other people give him in order to pay himself back. Many rich people are understandably reluctant to put their money, money which they intended to support Trump's campaign, into the gaping, insatiable maw that Donald Trump calls a pocket.

Only a week ago, the Trump campaign made a huge announcement that he had converted that debt into a contribution. My colleague, Susan Wright, posted on the announcement and she speculated, as did most of the RedState contributors, that Trump was, in fact, lying. If he claimed to convert the debt to a contribution... which is literally as hard as checking off a single box on one FEC report... he could collect contributions leading up to the convention, pocket them before the next report, and then confront the GOP with a broke campaign that they had to fundraise for. In other words, we were speculating that this was the quintessential Trumpian con wrapped in a scam wrapped in a deception.

Guess what?

When Donald Trump said last Thursday he was forgiving over $45 million in personal loans he made to his campaign, the announcement drew plenty of coverage. Many even reported Trump's statement as if the deal was done.

But it's not.

A week later, NBC News has learned the FEC has posted no record of Trump converting his loans to donations. The Trump Campaign has also declined requests to share the legal paperwork required to execute the transaction, though they suggest it has been submitted.

In his most recent FEC filing, which posted June 20, Trump treated all his spending on the campaign as loans.

An FEC staff member tells NBC News there is no new filing changing Trump's loans. The FEC's candidate tracking page, which posts filings, does not show new paperwork from Trump changing his loans.

Ultimately, if Trump declines to release any proof for claiming he forgave the loans, the rubber will hit the road on July 20, the next FEC filing deadline.

When does the GOP convention kick off? July 18. By the time the FEC report is released, Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee.

This is no different that the way Trump acted in regards to his "contribution" to veterans charities, or charities in general. He claims to give and doesn't follow through with action unless, as in the case of the veterans fundraising scam, he is caught and shamed into doing it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.......here is the fallacy in thinking of many in the UK and that includes UKIP and the two major parties.

The Article 50 trigger states that once it is triggered it must be completed inside two years....this plan is mainly how the UK will detangle itself, legally and financially from the EU and how it envisions going forward with the EU.

Then the EU will approve or disapproved whatever plan the UK presents to stay in the single market....if it wants to but then they will state the costs as well to stay associated.

THIS is to happen all inside a maximum of two years .......

Then the EU will approve whatever comes out of the talks...once approved again inside the two years....all ties are cut immediately to the UK...end of story.

All the Leavers had calculated that EU funding would still flow until all laws, finances and trade were worked out which will take the UK up to an estimated 15 years to finally get under control.....

Nope......once the plan is approved and that must be done inside two years...UK is on it own and nothing further flows from the EU that is exactly why the Leavers are trying to drag out triggering Article 50...

Interesting that they never said that during the referendum campaign....ever wonder why?????

Well sadly this confirms what I have been trying some to get to understand....and what Cameron did not fully understand ....once 50 is triggered the plan that UK lays in front of the EU Commission is how they are going exit and how they envision going forward then the EU Commission 27 votes to approve and or disapprove....

If approved then UK is out on the date they determined in their plan but it has to be inside the defined two years......the detangling of UK laws and finance regulations is the responsibility of UK..and that took the UK 40 years to complete......which is what the Leavers wanted ...control our own government and parliament.....

THEN once UK is completely out then UK and EU start negotiations on whatever the UK lays out.....the UK leaders seem to think that the new plan will be negotiated inside the two year period.....absolutely not is the EU statement.......

EU commissioner @MalmstromEU tells @BBCNewsnight "first you exit then you negotiate" on trade deal. Note: that has taken Canada 6 yrs so far

BIG: so @MalmstromEU tells me EU/UK trade talks won't start until Art50 exit complete then UK will trade on WTO terms until a deal is done

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you cannot make this up any more...the core driver on the Conservative side to Leave was BoJo....AND then realizing he was to going into history as the one triggering Article 50....and delivering economic pain to UK.... simply drops out...what the heck is this as an example of UK democracy...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/michael-gove-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-downing-street

Mustn't forget amid the Gove/Johnson circus that the real scrutiny and focus of attention should be on Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre.

Our nation's rulers (Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre) have just announced the nomination for their Prime Minister: it's Michael Gove.

On Monday @rupertmurdoch said Gove "most principled and most able” candidate & "could run a fine government”. Three days later he's running

BUT WAIT.........

I'm told Boris' widely criticized @Telegraph column - was SUB EDITED by Michael Gove who suggested changes - and Boris put them in

SO was he simply setup by Gove??????

Appears so......

[Firn]

Brexit humour springs out from fertile ground and once again stranger then fiction. I mean Boris running away for the time being by not running for PM, Gove's mutiny after defection, spurred on by his wife by email leaked, Farage and company wiping out the webpage to hide their lies clearly shown in archieved images, Labour self-destructing itself after an all-to clever lukewarm campaign fearing their Scottish referendum ghosts, SNP trying as usual to inflict more economic harm on Scotland in midst of an Oil crash, English citiziens rushing to get Irish passports, Welsh voting them out of investments but at once begging thy neighbour, Englands rapid Post-Brexit European Exit against Iceland, commented with grand arrogance by a Mc, a PM possibly breaking an old Union over one MP by losing to such a motley crew that it dissolved right after the act, no plan for the day after....

I mean you really can't make this stuff up, so much linkable stuff pure comedy gold :D

P.S: Tragic McClear (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ7rXwLBapg). Brilliant stuff, British Humour at it's finest.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....heads up.....remember currency traders has stated bottom of the BP is 1.22 to USD.

British pound dropping like a stone against the dollar as Carney speaks.

EU members can't negotiate their own trade deals - a rule that applies to UK during Article 50 process

So UK out of the EU WITH no access to the single market.....how strange is this....???

[OUTLAW 09]

So much for taking back control - Boris Johnson had no plan and he's unleashed anarchy.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/so-much-for-taking-back-control-its-clear-now-there-was-no-plan-and-boris-johnson-has-unleashed-a7111416.html …

"He's like a General that led his army to the sound of guns & at the sight of the battlefield abandoned the field."
http://bbc.in/298NNnn

Heseltine on Boris: "He's ripped the party apart. He's created the greatest constitutional crisis in modern times"

[Azor]

Azor...you send [sic] an unusual amount of time trying to discredit my comments on the financial disaster about to hit the UK and even argue well goin [sic] another will balance it all out in the end..exactly what Leave has arued [sic] repeatedly for years.

Because you spend an inordinate amount of time attempting to discredit the entire Leave campaign...If Brexit proves to be an unmitigated disaster for the UK and the EU successfully restructures its supply chains, develops financial hubs in Frankfurt and Paris, and finds new export markets, then is Brexit not to the EU’s advantage? In addition, according to you and others, the British have played an obstructionist role in the EU, have secured unreasonable opt-outs or special treatment and have frequently disrupted EU cohesion.


The key point you missed is that the FTSE 100 fell a total of 9% and the 250 fell over 14% so they have a long long way to go to even recover to their original pricing values and may never recovery.

Are you sure?


The FTSE 100 closed at 6,338.10 points on June 23. It closed at 6,504.33 on June 30. Total gain/loss = 2.62%

The FTSE 250 closed at 17,333.51 points on June 23. It closed at 16,271.07 on June 30. Total gain/loss = -6.13%


Both indices have recovered faster this week than from their downturns in January and February.


ask yourself...no racism in the UK...come on think....

When have I said that there is no racism in the UK? It is disappointing to see you attempt to portray a democratic decision as merely racist or Russian-inspired or the result of political infighting (Conservatives) with your only proof being soundbites from Remain campaigners who want to change the outcome of the referendum.


Secondly, it is the GPB that needs to be watched....it has never traded under 1.40 for more than one day in it's entire history....it tanked to 1.31 and has only climbed TWO CENTS....not much of a recovery is it????

I assume that you are referring to the GBP/USD pairing? Certainly it’s at lower levels then during the 2008-2009 crisis, but then again the USD is riding high against almost all currencies due to its liquidity, rising US rates, US economic growth and problems with the Euro as a viable alternative. The GBP is trading higher against the Euro than most of 2010-2014 and higher against the Yen than from 2010-2012.

Interestingly, the UK exports more to the US than it imports...


...even expat Turkish citizens can vote in their national elections and the EU even helped Turkey setup polling stations in a large number of communities.....THAT my friend is real democracy hard at work…

When Turks looked set to curtail AKP power and vote in the HDP, “Daesh” conveniently set off suicide bombs in Turkey. Real democracy indeed.


…this is from the Economist Intelligence Unit......

Interesting predictions considering that Article 50 has yet to be triggered and the UK will remain in the EU for 2 years.

In conclusion, you have yet to acknowledge my points:


No one can predict how this will unfold in the long-term
The UK pays more for the EU than it receives in EU spending (trend increasing)
The UK imports more from the EU than it exports (trend increasing)
The “free movement of labor” principle in Schengen and EFTA is not the same as the free movement of the unemployed in the EU
The EFTA has opt-outs (Schengen, EFTA Court) and can be much less expensive than EU membership
Other countries, including Switzerland, Israel and Canada have concluded FTAs with the EU

[Azor]

S&P cut its EU rating to AA from AA+, the same rating for the UK...

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSKCN0ZG2LS

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....
Then you have not paid much attention to the UK actions inside the EU since they actually joined the EU....most of all the EU Commissioners at one time or another have openly complained that with every major economic/political decision UK wanted their own version. On major decisions UK always wants it's versions and if not achieved then they defer and reject.

Notice the last reform run made by Cameron....they actually conceded many points to the UK in order to give him something to take back for Brexit..and I seriously doubt you yourself can even recite those reform adjustments...or can you?

My friend it is not only me.

All increases on both FTSEs per traders has not been the average off the street investor/buyer but major hedge funds buying up UK assets at an under priced cost....that my friend is not economic recovery BUT the selling of UK assets to largely outside UK hedge funds....check the hedge funds and you will notice ME/Chinese and US....

You honestly are trying to sell me the London Bridge are you not.....the UKIP message was what again.....the Tory Leave messaging was again centered on what and the lukewarm undertoned JC messaging had no racist undertones...

Then my friend you do not live in the UK.....

The narratives were as follows:
1. Illegal immigrants driving down our wages/salaries.....LARGELY disproved by FT statistics since 2007
2. Uncontrolled legal and illegal immigration
3. Take back under control our own abilities to govern....WHICH was never taken from the UK the last time I checked
4. we are been ruled and controlled by a supranational empire we have no control over
5. we can make better trade deals than the EU
6. FORGOT this one...Turkey is going to join the EU and flood us with Turkish poor and unemployed
7. AND this famous one...we can replace all funding loses by using the EU fees we pay...THAT one was equally disproved RAPIDLY within 24 hours by even UKIP
8. we can on and on

MISS anything.....

AND the reality was Tories in chaos, Labour is now officially splitting itself apart and UKIP the far right party is becoming close to being the official second strongest UK party...

The GBP is still at the lowest all time record point in it's life time and the so called gains it made were wiped out by the Carey speech yesterday.

FACT historically the BP has never traded under 1.40 for longer than 12 hours and now we are what say SIX days breaking all previously known records and that is not an INDICATOR with major currency trades stating final level 1.22 and even the ECB in some of their models points to this.

THEN explain just why the UK is running for the last quarter a major import/export deficient of 36B GBPs

Secondly, the UK is mainly a major importer from the EU of virtually all of it's agricultural products and those goods that are exported from the EU to UK are for final production of products and are simply part of the on time delivery supply chain

Have you honestly any idea just how long it takes to negotiate a trade deal ...all the while the UK will e governed by the WTO rules which will in effect kill UK trade as you cannot even compete with those rates. Those that have no for of any form of FTAs join as quickly as they can SOME kind of FTA zone to avoid WTO.

We see chatter coming from the Leave side of a Canadian model...well that "Canadian model" with the EU is in now the SIXTH year of talks and still no deal.......

I have never said Turkey is a democracy...far from it....and you are really hung up on Turkey in many of your comments as where many from Leave...
BUT here is something that you did not hear when Turkey was used as an argument by say UKIP which is/was a major Leave driver......

IT takes a nation entering the EU to complete a 36 step process and there is a check by the EU on everyone of those 36 blocks... Turkey has not completed more than today 12...they are at least 15 YEARS away from joining the EU. If they really want to as they are actually comfortable with their own Trade Association Agreement.

Predictions...who are you actually kidding....the 50 trigger will go into effect once the Tories have finally figured out who will lead them....AND what about UK democracy...the PARTY chooses who will lead you based on NOT elections but by again WHO....not the electorate....until there are snap elections and or 2020.....did you vote for the new incoming Tory government NO you did not.

This is just not speculation....the UK thought that it could drag out the 50 trigger until all points were defined thus living off of the UK funding until sometime in say 10-15 years when they finally changed back to UK laws and financial/trade regulations.

AND during that time negotiate some kind of association deal.....

WELL that is never going to happen WHY;
1.there is a EU regulation/law forbidding even EU members to conclude separate trade deals with the overall EU UNTIL they leave....
2. the two year timeframe for 50 is designed to tell the EU just how UK is going to leave and which steps and time tables they will be using to separate 40 years of common laws and financial/trade agreements nothin more and nothin less AND what compensation if any flows back to UK to assist in this devilment process and WHAT flows back to the UK as damages for forcing the EU to rewrite their laws and regulations.

AND there will be damage claims calculated by the EU.....as now the 27 will present the UK a possible list of damages for their efforts as well.

AS does it always happen in all divorce proceedings there are two sides to the same story and the UK has apparently totally forgotten that in their rush to Leave....


1. YES you can in fact predict and the EU has been not so ungentle in trying to show the UK this. THE financial fallout is what cannot be predicted....BUT if you paid attention to the Carey speech yesterday there is going to strong fallout on any model used....
2. UK pays more than it receives but....largely disproven by Economist and FT and even the English Central Bank
3. the UK imports more than it exports from YES...previously answered BUT this is critical for you as apparently you will be paying far more for your food which comes from the EU and is factored by the price of the GBP which has fallen strongly against the Euro thus driving up you overall cost of living and driving up inflation WHICH is what the ECB wants BECAUSE UK has basically been in a deflationary phase and not moving out of that
4. Not so sure you understand what is the term "free movement of labor" and that has caused so much confusion in UK..
READ closely the Four Freedoms I posted for you and you basically ignored...
You are as a worker allowed to look for work in other EU nations as labor is a commodity as Marx once stated....that commodity if needed in say Spain and you are in Finland then you can contact Spain and see if they are interested..you then work out a contract and off you go...BUT your argument is for the unemployed...if you are unemployed you do get benefits in your country depending on their laws/regulations and if they are low then many take off for the EU promise land and attempt to find something in another member state.

BUT this is what you do not get....even if unemployed and you move IT DOES not get you social benefits in another country as this has been fought and defeated inside the ECJ with the recent ruling that you as an unemployed in an new country still have to fulfill the requirements of that country in order to receive social benefits.......AND those countries pushing the EU to allow social benefits to be paid without requirements basically conceded to the ECJ.....there is though an ongoing debate about how long the unemployed person has to pay into the new system...they are shooting for a full year of paying into the social system via taxes before on can claim benefits BUT as always within the EU those benefits are low since one has not paid long into them...

WHERE was that discussed in UK by any party???? Nowhere....

5. fees say from EFTA being lower...YES they are but the return benefits NEVER come close to what is received back from the EU....the EFTA does not have say a EU Rural/Low Income Development Fund that the UK has been using extensively since joining AND now you are awakening to the fact THAT even the UK government cannot replace them....
AND ..CHECK the tariff structures of the EFTA vs EU single market...actually are higher that is why the EFTA tied itself via trade agreements to the EU so when they deal with the EU it is virtually ZERO vs when they deal with other non EU nations.

6. you are again wrong...Canada is still negotiating their FTA with the EU AND that after SIX years....ALSO check just how long it took Israel and the Swiss to reach their deals...years not months....

Your overall problem as it was with many Leave voters is you voted with emotion about supposed/alleged problems and or fears driven largely by the Leave groups and not countered by rational facts of the EU and how it functions by the Remain groups....

BUT this is my complaint about all your comments....the Leavers evidently were in fact complaining bitterly about NOT the EU BUT about the long term effects of "globalization" on UK over the last 40 years or so NOT addressed by the major UK parties when in government.

THAT my friend is "poor governance" which is not a problem of the EU but of the Brits....

WHY did they not take their vengeance out at that ballot box SAY TEN years ago....utter silence.

NOW explain that????

ENOUGH answers....??

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...two things to think about...

1. that so called real UK auto industry was built on EU/international investment premises that they would be actually in the EU...that dictated construction funds and investment funds usually calculated on a 10 year run. THEN what they produce can be exported internally or externally all under virtually no tariffs.....IF inside the EU.

NOW that the UK in two years is not inside the EU thus unable to guarantee the same tariffs rates even if EFTA or WTO..where will then these same multinationals go......simply across the Channel with both investments and plants....

It will take UK up to in a good scenario about 15 years to reshuffle the EU business laws back to good ole UK business laws and you know as I do business simply hates uncertainty.....

2. explain to me again just how is it possible that this EU beating down on EU members with all the Leave arguments about government controls and business red tape....HOW is it possible for Germany who has high average salary rates compared to the rest of EU, has a high really high EU fee, who has guaranteed a majority of the Greek bailout funds and has 80B Euros of their own funds directly tied to whether Greece makes it and NOW has 1.2M extra refugees and has thousands of open and unfilled napprenticeship training positions and hundreds of job positions currently unfilled .....AND HAS allowed full freedom of movement and has thousands of eastern EU citizens living and working inside Germany.......

HOW is it that they are running with relatively low unemployment, have far fewer poor than the UK and are running a massive export surplus even with a high salary production costs and are now supporting a massive alternative energy build out inside Greece.....and the tax revenue is blowing up all estimates even made by the German Finance Ministry....

How is that possible when being beaten into the ground by an over controlling EU and massive EU red tape????

[OUTLAW 09]

Michael Gove promises just £100m for NHS, but THAT bus suggested it would be more
http://huff.to/29wXUC3

Gove now explaining with a straight face that £350 million was the "gross sum" UK sends to the EU every week so cant spend all that on NHS

After Brexit, it may be a good time to invest in scotch and cigarettes
http://cnnmon.ie/29dwJ0V

What a complete farce as he knows he must trigger 50 in order to start any kind of talks as the EU Commission has strict orders to not talk until they see Article 50.....SO is in fact Gove BACKING away from Leaving....APPEARS so.

Brexit live: Michael Gove says unlikely that article 50 will be invoked this year
http://trib.al/lZPvRml

YET he ran on a campaign pledge to LEAVE...and he knows it...so why the sudden hesitation?????

Gove says will only trigger article 50 after extensive preliminary talks. Not this calendar year. But EU talks not currently on offer.

The EU has explicitly stated...no talks until Article 50 is triggered and Gove knows this already....

So Gove just wants to keep paying EU fees which he based for the last year or so......

AND here comes the Leave reality...raised taxes and cut social services......

Financial Times
✔ @FinancialTimes George Osborne abandons balanced budget rule
http://on.ft.com/29fVefM

Gove stressing his "conviction". On Wednesday he believed with conviction Boris Johnson should be PM. On Thursday he didn't.

Didn't say Brexit no role. But $9tn of negatively yielding sovereign debt in the world. Fall in UK yields in trend.
https://twitter.com/WilfredFrost/status/748795894120624129 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Is there actually in the UK so called "democracy"...."the rule of law, transparency and good governance"...not really.

For 40 odd years the effects of globalization was largely ignored by all UK political parties and then used to drive UK out of the EU.....

The ballot was used to force a constitutional change but not the required 2/3rds rule if a change was actually to be a constitutional one....

NOW there is a complete change in the leadership of the ruling party and YET the voting public is not asked to verify that change nor what they claim they are going to talk to the EU about WHEN the EU is not talking until Article 50....let's not even talk about Labour.....

ALL without public participation via the ballot box....as to what they think.

So with a non binding referendum and that is what the Brexit vote was we have a complete coup at the top of the Tory Party and the electorate has no say......as to who is to lead the next four years....????

So apparently for the UK it does not have the rule of law, transparency and good governance.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Is there an exit from Brexit? Are we the Former United Kingdom (FUK)? My Interim take:
http://bit.ly/299iCcM

[OUTLAW 09]

It is just not the Tories that have messed up...Labor is not much better these days.......

Jewish group makes formal complaint to Labour after Jeremy Corbyn compared Israel to ISIS
http://read.bi/29l3yIz

BREAKING: Jewish Human Rights Watch make formal complaint to Labour party about the "conduct" of Jeremy Corbyn.

[OUTLAW 09]

So the undertone is if we do not get this then we will leave...quite apparent.....

AFP news agency
✔ @AFP #BREAKING EasyJet demands EU flights pledge after Brexit

Now the reality is sinking in for the entire UK business community that has dealings with the EU...either in the single market or out..there is no other way forward......EFTA or the non existing CFTA or WTO will get them the preferences they currently enjoy.....

[OUTLAW 09]

An Albanian tells me he's going back to Albania. "Because of Brexit?" I ask in my most unctuous liberal manner. 'No' he answers. 'Weather.'

[OUTLAW 09]

Elegantly devastating @sarahlyall portrait of Boris Johnson.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/01/world/europe/boris-johnson-brexit-conservatives.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share …

UK showing "clear signs" of shock after #Brexit vote, chancellor @George_Osborne says
http://bbc.in/29brMnF

[OUTLAW 09]

Sound similar to the UK......5M unemployed and not enough adequately educated and or trained to fill the empty positions in Spain......that is why "free movement" exists....


Spanish headhunter Samuel Pimentel just can’t find the candidates.

After a frustrating search for specialist consultants for a client, he’s given up and is casting his net elsewhere.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/spain-runs-out-of-workers-with-5-million-unemployed/ar-AAhPGUr?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp


“We were looking for people for two months,” Pimentel, a partner at Ackermann Beaumont Group for Spain and Latin America, said in a telephone interview. “We managed to find one in Spain. We turned to Argentina for others.”

Pimentel’s experience reflects a bizarre feature of the Spanish labor market that is hampering the country’s efforts to repair the damage from the economic crisis. Even with close to 5 million people out of work, the next prime minister will face labor shortages with employers struggle to find the staff they need.

“It’s a paradox,” said Valentin Bote, head of research in Spain at Randstad, a recruitment agency. “The unemployment rate is too high. Yet we’re seeing some tension in the labor market because unemployed people don’t have the skills employers demand.”

From software developers and mathematical modelers to geriatric nurses and care workers, a mismatch in qualifications means companies are struggling to fill posts, even though the unemployment rate at 20.4 percent is the second-highest in Europe. Randstad estimates that Spanish companies may struggle to fill almost 2 million posts through 2020.

continued....


Americans with some higher education have taken almost every job created in the recovery
http://bloom.bg/295peuj

OSW Warsaw ThinkTank @OSW_eng
The Russian elite expects #Brexit to be a breakthrough moment in the process of the erosion of the EU http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2016-06-29/russia-brexit-calculating-benefits …

[OUTLAW 09]

So the undertone is if we do not get this then we will leave...quite apparent.....

AFP news agency
✔ @AFP #BREAKING EasyJet demands EU flights pledge after Brexit

Now the reality is sinking in for the entire UK business community that has dealings with the EU...either in the single market or out..there is no other way forward......EFTA or the non existing CFTA or WTO will get them the preferences they currently enjoy.....

Last comments out of Easy Jet.....they will now be leaving the UK...probably to either Ireland and or Germany.

[OUTLAW 09]

London property deals worth $650m collapse after #Brexit.
http://on.ft.com/299JBVG

So complete coincidence then that there's been a massive rise in racist attacks & abuse in the wake of Leave's win?

In the Tory laundry basket, Michael Gove is the dirtiest item | Marina Hyde
http://gu.com/p/4ndqm/stw

New Statesman ‏@NewStatesman · 4h4 hours ago

Boris Johnson peddled absurd EU myths – and our disgraceful press followed his lead, writes @mfletchertimes http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/boris-johnson-peddled-absurd-eu-myths-and-our-disgraceful-press-followed-his …

[OUTLAW 09]

May: "rights of EU migrants to remain in the UK will be in play in the talks," i.e. Europeans could be thrown out

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/axis-tory-leadership-contest-tilt-brexit-fox-leadsom-gove-may

Axis of Tory leadership contest has tilted harder to leave


In her statement, May set down some difficult markers for Brussels. She made clear that the UK will not trigger article 50, which starts the negotiations with the EU, until the turn of the year, months after the leadership elections, a timeline that will displease the commission. Brussels wants the talks to start immediately a new leader is in place in September, and will not even allow informal talks to begin until article 50 is triggered. May argues that the government needs longer to work out its negotiating position. If the markets abhor a vacuum, tough.

In a further effort to reassure the leavers, she promised there will be no backdoor route back into the EU, saying there will be no second referendum, something some Brussels diplomats and some in the Obama administration still crave. An early election was also dismissed, so it does not look as if she feels the need to seek further democratic legitimacy once a deal has been struck. “Brexit means Brexit,” she said.

The only glimpse of flexibility was when she said there was clearly no mandate for a deal that involves accepting free movement of people as it had worked hitherto. That leaves her free to argue that an emergency brake on free movement might be a compromise that satisfies Brussels and gives the UK access to the single market.

Finally, she explicitly identified some cards that she may have in a tough negotiating hand. She said the rights of EU migrants to remain in the UK will be in play in the talks, implying that without a deal, tens of thousands of Europeans could be thrown out of the UK.

Gove, Fox and Leadsom will point to her lengthy pro-remain speech in the referendum campaign to show she is liable to relent on free movement to get access to a single market.

For some Brexiters it was significant, too, that May has spoken of an initial deal, suggesting that an interim Norway deal may be required and that her priority was to to maintain the single market.

In her single referendum campaign speech, May ridiculed the whole architecture of the Brexit negotiations.

“The reality is that we do not know on what terms we would have access to the single market,” she said. “We do know that in the negotiations we would need to make concessions in order to access it, and those concessions could well be about accepting EU regulations over which we would have no say, making financial contributions just as we do now, accepting free movement rules. It is not clear why other EU member states would give Britain a better deal than they themselves enjoy.”

She also foresaw the threats, now emerging from Paris, about the threat to the City of London from Brexit by losing its right to passport euro trade deals. “If we were not in the European Union, there would be little we could do to stop discriminatory policies being introduced, and London’s position as the world’s leading financial centre would be in danger. The banks may be unpopular, but this is no small risk: financial services account for more than 7% of our economic output, 13% of our exports, a trade surplus of almost £60bn – and more than 1 million British jobs.”

She also seemed to understand how hard and perilous it would be to secure a bilateral trade deal with the EU. “We would have to replace 36 existing trade agreements we have with non-EU countries that cover 53 markets. The EU trade deals Britain has been driving – with the US, worth £10bn per year to the UK, with Japan, worth £5bn a year to the UK, with Canada, worth £1.3bn a year to the UK – would be in danger of collapse. And while we could certainly negotiate our own trade agreements, there would be no guarantee that they would be on terms as good as those we enjoy now.”


She does not seem to believe that if she restricts EU citizens then the UK citizens will not have their rights protected as well.........

AND there are far more Brits in the EU than EU citizens inside UK.....

BUT WAIT.......she seems to have completely forgotten that the EU has a say in all of this.......

Juncker toes Brussels line on Brexit: "No negotiation whatsoever before notification."

[OUTLAW 09]

Brussels ‏@ftbrussels

Brexit — ‘We want to be Big Scotland’
http://on.ft.com/296alCV

[OUTLAW 09]

https://piie.com/research/united-kingdom

Brexit Is a Disastrous Experiment in Deglobalization
C. Fred Bergsten (PIIE)
July 1, 2016


Brexit is an experiment in deglobalization. As the pound tanks and British politics implode, investment will dry up and the entire United Kingdom will almost certainly plunge into recession. The country may well break apart as Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland desperately seek to avoid the experiment. The outcome should dramatically discourage other Europeans, the United States, and anyone else contemplating their own versions of deglobalization.

The European Union (EU), albeit at the regional level, represents the most ambitious foray into globalization in human history. It has essentially eliminated national borders in economic terms, creating a truly single market and even a common currency for most of its 28 members (though not the United Kingdom). It interacts as a single unit with the rest of the world on trade and some other economic issues.

Like all globalization, and technological advance and other dynamic economic change, the EU provides substantial overall benefits for each of the participating countries while imposing adjustment costs on a minority within each. For the United States, for example, the benefit-cost ratio of globalization has been found to be about 20:1. By withdrawing from the EU, if they actually go ahead with it, Britain will give up many of the gains it has been enjoying, mainly in terms of unfettered access to the world’s largest market, while recovering a few of the modestly offsetting losses that apparently motivated the “leave” vote. Its competitive position in Europe, and vis-à-vis Europe in the rest of the world, will fall sharply. As a result, investment in Britain by both domestic and especially foreign firms will also fall sharply.

No country has ever succeeded economically without integrating into the world economy. Those that have rejected globalization have failed miserably: Compare North Korea with South Korea and the Soviet Union with China. The failure of the Middle East as a region can be largely traced to its deglobalization in a globalizing world.

Britain will of course continue to participate actively in the world economy even after Brexit. At the margin, however, and whatever new trade agreements it may be able to negotiate, the country will be withdrawing from globalization and moving against the tide of history. Companies that vote with their investment capital, and entrepreneurs and skilled workers who vote with their feet, will go elsewhere. Scotland, Northern Ireland, and maybe even Wales will make every effort to escape these inevitable implications.

Some observers believe that Brexit will encourage and maybe even promote the success of anti-globalization forces elsewhere, including the United States. The opposite outcome is far more likely as the impact of the British experiment becomes apparent. The economic toll will encompass recession, possibly steep in the short run, and eroding competitiveness and real incomes over time. In this unique case, political dissolution is probable too. It is highly unlikely that anyone else will want to emulate Britain’s revealed preference for self-immolation.


RealTime Economic Issues Watch
Brexit: Is the Financial System Ready?
Sebastian Ring (PIIE)
June 30, 2016


“Some market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfolds. But we are well prepared for this.” Those were the words of Mark Carney(link is external), governor of the Bank of England, following the UK referendum on EU membership last Friday. As PIIE President Adam Posen previously argued, those words were well chosen. There has been contingency planning at both the Bank of England and the UK Treasury. Stress tests reveal that UK commercial banks have relatively robust capital buffers against unexpected shocks.

That Brexit was an unexpected shock is a puzzle. Everybody knew that the UK referendum was coming, and the polls had been close for a long time. The initial reaction in the financial markets was severe. Why, then, did the risk of a potential UK exit from the European Union not feature more prominently in recent financial stability reports published by the world’s leading central banks and other institutions charged with monitoring global finance for signs of vulnerability?

From a selection of 11 major financial stability reports, six omit the risk of a Brexit completely, perhaps most notably the International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report of April 2016. It is especially odd given that the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the companion document, mentions the referendum in the executive summary. While neither report included Brexit in the baseline scenario, it is not clear what we are to make of the difference between the two assessments. Other financial stability reports that omit the risk of Brexit include the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report of December 2015, Bank of Italy’s Financial Stability Report of April 2016, and the 2015 Annual Report to Congress issued by the US Office of Financial Research in December 2015.

When Brexit is mentioned, it is usually in a brief comment, bundled with uncertainty around the US presidential election, as in the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review of May 2016. The Bank for International Settlements’ March 2016 report mentioned Brexit only in passing, saying that it had been partially priced into commodities but that “shifting expectations of monetary policy, the evolution of borrowing costs in major currencies, and further credit-fueled stimulus in China” were the underlying factors for financial turbulence in early 2016.

Financial stability reports are a ubiquitous feature of the post-2008 landscape. Only seven out of the 11 institutions surveyed here even published financial stability reports before the 2008 financial crisis. The reports are a response to the increased demand for continuous monitoring of the banking, financial, and payment systems with an eye to preventing the next financial crisis. They provide a platform for policymakers to explain concerns about financial stability to a wider audience, and they allow institutions to account for financial risks facing trading partners and other countries.

Table 1 below summarizes the view on Brexit risks in all the financial stability reports surveyed. Only the central banks of Sweden and Denmark considered Brexit as a risk worthy of mention in the executive summary.

Once again, this limited sample does not suggest that the institutions surveyed have not done their contingency planning. It is just odd that Brexit isn’t mentioned in several of the most recent, major financial stability reports. And since those reports are framing documents that give the public insight into the collective thinking of policymakers, it begs the question whether Brexit simply was not on the stability guardians’ minds. Maybe, like many other economists trained in rational decision making, they simply thought voters would come around and vote to remain in the European Union—or that the shock of a Brexit would be small or easily contained.

Whatever their reasoning, the result was an unexpected shock to the financial system, which will have consequences that we cannot yet predict. In such a situation, it is comforting to learn that the Bank of England is well prepared. Meanwhile, it is time to prepare for the next shock. Not all risks come with a three-year-long announcement.

[Compost]

When attempting to dull and overpower the senses, demonisers typically avoid hard issues and instead buttress their interests by using contrived targets and emotive language. But demonising is a poor substitute for analysis. That was clearly demonstrated by two recent items on the ASPI site.

For clever demonising see
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/rise-democracy-europe/
For rational analysis see
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/denial-deficits-set-terms-brexit-divorce/

[OUTLAW 09]

When attempting to dull and overpower the senses, demonisers typically avoid hard issues and instead buttress their interests by using contrived targets and emotive language. But demonising is a poor substitute for analysis. That was clearly demonstrated by two recent items on the ASPI site.

For clever demonising see
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/rise-democracy-europe/
For rational analysis see
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/denial-deficits-set-terms-brexit-divorce/

48% agree there should be another General Election to vote on EU plans (only 23% disagree).

[OUTLAW 09]

Everyone for themselves...."little Europe"....

Our current cover story: Everyone for themselves – Little Europe: The return of the past
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-triggers-eu-power-struggle-between-merkel-and-juncker-a-1100852.html …

This is @Freedland on blistering form. On just how despicable Boris is and what a disaster #Brexit will be.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/01/boris-johnson-and-michael-gove-betrayed-britain-over-brexit …

The hints at Michael Gove's coming knifing of the Etonians can be found in this 2014 @FT profile.
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/90d3f85a-3f71-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.html …

How to Crash #Putin's #Brexit Party
https://lnkd.in/eZr-Y2c

[OUTLAW 09]

For all Ukraine's dysfunction, its civil society and elite have a better understanding of what EU negotiations entail than UK Tories do

AND they are in the middle of a Russian war of aggression and has lost Crimea.....

[OUTLAW 09]

British politics now has a big dose of Syriza-thinking towards negotiations - "respect our democratic mandate". That's not how it works

Greece is a study in how EU states will hazard their own economic interest & beggar a nation to face down 'populism' https://twitter.com/duncanweldon/status/749173193055825921 …

After #Brexit, NI would face an annual loss of c. €1 billion and a 3% decline in GDP, according to NI Assembly Enterprise Committee report.

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting note by @drjennings on the decline of "representative parliamentary democracy."
https://sotonpolitics.org/2016/07/01/the-strange-death-of-parliamentary-democracy/ …

THIS goes to my comments that the UK PM and Parliament parties has basically for 40 odds years ignored......"the rule of law, good governance and transparency"......

WHILE claiming to be "a unique and the oldest democracy"...the question is THEN why not go back to "the so called ballot box" and ask the civil society what they want for leadership ...but simply changing out the "so called leaders" until 2020 is not democracy.....it is a "political coup" via so called "democracy"......driven by egos.....not the rule of law and good governance and in full transparency...not lies, lies and more lies used to misled a large segment of the UK civil society...


What sort of arrogance dictates Irish & Danes can have 2nd referendums on EU but we British cannot. Irish & Danes knew they made a mistake.
We Brits cannot figure out if we have actually made a mistake or not......as our house burns down around us.....

Gove: "I could not be Prime Minister, I'm not equipped to be Prime Minister, I don't want to be Prime Minister."

BUT WAIT...being PM gets a house, servants, airplane, chef and other benefits and an increase in salary......NOW I want to be PM.....

AND best of all...with no election to worry about...SOLID job security until at least 2020...

[OUTLAW 09]

This is the best explainer yet of why arguing "they'll back down - it's in their interests" is likely to be wrong https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/02/europe-cant-rescue-britain-saving-itself-immigration …

Imagining that Britain’s European partners will produce concessions to facilitate a U-turn is wishful thinking – the EU is too weak and too rattled by populist forces to be able to make that kind of manoeuvre without setting itself on a course to self-destruction. The EU will prefer to ensure its own survival as a project rather than risk suicide by handing Britain unprecedented exemptions from its founding principles, such as freedom of movement

[OUTLAW 09]

Extraordinary: paper that campaigned for Brexit says its leading spokesman is a bufoon and a bluff. And dangerous.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3668972/If-charlatan-sexual-adventurer-Prime-Minister-d-emigrated-says-former-boss-MAX-HASTINGS.html …

SO exactly just where was this so called UK MSM outlet when Leave supporters were lying and lying and this MSM outlet never seemed to "see" it.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Maybe UK political leaders and their parties just need some small assistance in figuring out how good governance, the rule of law and transarency works in a democracy.....

Navy SEALs explain how your ego can destroy everything http://read.bi/298HumE

[Firn]

An interesting facet of Brexit is that it is a lot easier to roughly determine it's overall long-term economic effect - a clear negative for it's potential GDP. In the short run a heavily devalued pound might weigh more then counteracting negatives. The again quite a few things in life are subject to the supposed paradox, among them life's end as in the long run we are all dead.


As with many recent stories it makes always fun to explore them, trying to make sense of it, predicting effects. Brexit is one of those big life experiments which will be keenly watched and result in a lot of studies and papers.

[davidbfpo]

So far the reaction of the two main parties has been almost bewildering, hardly what is needed today - either as the loyal opposition or the government.

In many respects after a hiatus following the Referendum it has been "business as usual" as the "knives come out", notably Boris Johnson's unexpected exit from running as a Conservative Party leader and the mass departure of Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.

Yes there is dismay about the result, although to date there have been two small evening protests outside Parliament and today 30k marched in London.

The on-line petition calling for a new referendum, with new rules:
We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.
Link:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Media-wise it appears to have slid from the foreground, partly as so many bogus signatures were added - including 26k from North Korea.:rolleyes: Just checked and it shows 4,098,243 signatures.

I have yet to hear any political leader calling for a second referendum, but with som much reporting I could have missed that.:wry:

[davidbfpo]

Three interesting comments:

1) Cited in part:
the love affair between Cameron and Xi appears to be on the rocks following Britain’s decision to leave the EU and the Prime Minister's resignation Which also wonders if George Osborne's demise is significant, which IMHO some inside "The Beltway" will be very happy about. Link:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/china-britain-and-brexit-vote-to-leave-eu-robs-golden-relationship-of-its-lustre

2) From a left wing academic viewpoint an explanation why. It ends with:
One could even argue that, being in the EU but outside of the Eurozone, Britain has had the best deal of any member state during the 21st century. This has been abandoned. Meanwhile, nations that might genuinely describe themselves as ‘shackled’, have suffered such serious threats to their democracy as to have unelected Prime Ministers imposed upon them by the Troika, and have had their future forcibly removed thanks to the European Union, might look at Brexit and wonder.
Link:http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/thoughts-on-the-sociology-of-brexit/

3) Explains why Sheffield helps to understand the vote in a Labour "heartland":
Fortunately, there’s one part of the country which can help us to make sense of the bigger picture: the city of Sheffield. Sheffield’s referendum vote was similar to the national one in a couple of ways.
Link:https://theconversation.com/sheffield-what-happened-in-this-city-explains-why-britain-voted-for-brexit-61623? (https://theconversation.com/sheffield-what-happened-in-this-city-explains-why-britain-voted-for-brexit-61623?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%205155&utm_content=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%205155+CID_b16b7c58089393f0cdaba863eb671388&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Sheffield%20what%20happened%20in%20this%2 0city%20explains%20why%20Britain%20voted%20for%20B rexit)

[OUTLAW 09]

3 Russian Scenarios of Collapse of European Union, Best for Moscow
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/07/russians-debate-which-kind-of-eu.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

UK major political parties still do not get the EU and Article 50.....UK must trigger Article 50 before any negotiations can even take place and the UK plan they will resent will only be able to contain how they envision detangling 40 years of laws, court and trade regulations and on how they plan to exit "their passport for financial services.".....AND the date they will formally exit....

Once they formally exit then and only then will the UK be able to focus on trade deals and other items such as free movement of EU citizens inside UK and those Brits living in EU.....

What is it about UK political parties that have been in the EU for 40 years and yet still do not apparently understand how it functions...

"Progressive parties must aim to make any Article 50 deal part of a 2nd referendum or general election.."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/02/brexit-labour-divisions-way-forward?CMP=share_btn_tw …

[OUTLAW 09]

'Reverse Greenland', anyone? Scots eye post-Brexit EU options
http://reut.rs/29eGvSS

John Micklethwait writes that Britain's liberal, trading revival that began in 1979 may have now crumbled in 2016.
http://bloom.bg/29epQ1v

UK was known by EU member states to be a constant blocking force when EU wanted to make changes...this might in fact have been largely true....

Gove promising to curb exec pay - plans vague, but strangely similar to what EU tried 2012-2014 (against uk opposition)

[OUTLAW 09]

Well worth reading......UK would do well to listen to Merkel as she is about their only friend right now in the EU............she is one of a few top EU leaders that believes the UK will not trigger Article 50 when it becomes extremely clear what the true costs are NOT the so called lies spread by all Leave groups....

Sunday Times Foreign @STForeign
Merkel to London... Is anybody there?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/04757cb8-4083-11e6-9300-bcc24f53f55e …



Henry Kissinger is said once to have asked despairingly whom he should call if he wanted to speak to Europe. Now it is the Continent’s own politicians who are complaining that the line to Britain has gone dead in the meltdown since the referendum.

“The Brits must now come forward and say what they want,” Jens Spahn, deputy to Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, told The Sunday Times last week. “We cannot start contemplating any new relationships before the old has ended. The sequence of things is clear: the first step is negotiating the exit, and this will take years;…


WHAT is interesting is that the vote to leave was basically an "advisory vote" to Parliament as a Constitutional change vote would have required 2/3rds to vote for it and this is in fact a Constitutional change when 40 years worth of merged EU/UK laws and regulations must be changed back to UK standards.....

So in fact Parliament can still say on it's own...not to leave.....as they can state yes we respect the vote but it was not a vote for Constitutional changes....

THAT is why UKIP and some of the Leave leaders/groups such as BoJo wanted an immediate Article 50 triggered...then there is no going back as they are afraid the public will eventually realize this was only an advisory vote....not a binding Constitutional change vote.....

Actually confirms this........

May on @peston: "no absolute deadline" on Article 50.

Gosh.

AND the pain is starting to sink in..finally....one might say and a tad to late....

Britain's upstart banks face a bumpy ride through Brexit fall-out
http://reut.rs/29qjxoI

[davidbfpo]

Citing OUtlaw09's last post in part:
WHAT is interesting is that the vote to leave was basically an "advisory vote" to Parliament as a Constitutional change vote would have required 2/3rds to vote for it and this is in fact a Constitutional change when 40 years worth of merged EU/UK laws and regulations must be changed back to UK standards.

The UK does not have a constitution, so there is no law stating such a change needs a 2/3rds vote.

In the 1979 referendum in Scotland:
..the referendum legislation also required 40% of the electorate to vote 'Yes' for the plans to be enacted and this was not achieved.
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Scottish_devolution

Yes there is a "mountain" of UK law and regulation that originated from the EU, but that is not a 'constitutional change' in waiting. None of that "mountain" refers to how the UK is governed.

[OUTLAW 09]

Citing OUtlaw09's last post in part:

The UK does not have a constitution, so there is no law stating such a change needs a 2/3rds vote.

In the 1979 referendum in Scotland:
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Scottish_devolution

Yes there is a "mountain" of UK law and regulation that originated from the EU, but that is not a 'constitutional change' in waiting. None of that "mountain" refers to how the UK is governed.

David...beg seriously to differ....one of the main goals in order to join is to mesh the incoming countries laws.....criminal, financial, trade, yes even down to divorce and marriage rights and etc...to match those values set by the in order for the incoming nations legal system to be able to accept and carry out those decisions made by the ECJ and the ECHR ....

That is the reason for the 36 Block/Step process in joining...meaning as each part of the new member's laws and regulations are matched and changed...then onto the next Block...

WHY the idea was that say a mixed UK/Spanish marriage could be dissolved with the final decisions reflecting both Spanish and UK legal rights to protect the two individuals...down to portability of pensions and the acceptance of say pension earnings in one country being passed onto say the UK system and recognized in the UK and vice versa. e

THERE are estimates of upwards of 15-17 years in order to have the UK "reverse/rewrite/detangle" that "mountain".....remember it took almost that long for the UK to finally catch the curve and come up to EU legal standards...

AND yes the laws of the UK are in fact deeply meshed within EU laws and regulations....you will especially see that in the banking and finance sides of the UK...

YES you do not have a "Constitution as such" but major changes to anything in the UK legal and political system can in fact be changed by a 2/3rds vote... it just has to be so stated on the ballot thus binding for Parliament MPs.....

AND yes the leave vote was actually an advisory vote as it is not binding on Parliament as it is Parliament that has the final say not the PM nor the ruling party.

Secondly, if you pay close attention to the current mess....you have voted in the last election for a ruling party and their PM...now the ruling party has "lost" that PM who was elected.... .. thus so has your original vote disappeared...now you have that same ruling party deciding over the heads of those that originally voted and putting a new PM into place with the so called holding to 2020 as the next election.

So say a majority of the Tory/Labor if they crossed over voters do not like the choice...they are stuck and cannot say a thing until a sudden snap election...which ain't about to happen and the next scheduled vote is 2020.....

By some terms this is a coup as the ballot of each individual was not honored with the selection of the new PM and know one knows exactly just what his/her program is other than leave and trigger Article 50.

Then we see the constant sidestepping on the leave side saying well we will use the 52% as a leverage against the EU for a "better deal"...but the EU has openly stated....."you got the best deal before the vote" and that is now off the table.

Are we in fact now seeing with the utter confusion inside the Tories and Labor a complete breakdown of "parliamentary democracy"....

[OUTLAW 09]

David.......notice the Lords's own use of the word "constitution" throughout the 210 pages".....and their views on just what are referendums and how they impact Parliament's decisions. Interesting that this study was done in 2009/2010.....long before Leave....


"The Select Committee on the Constitution" House of Lords.....

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200910/ldselect/ldconst/99/99.pdf

Titled "Referendums in the United Kingdom" 12th Session 2009/2010


Many on the Leave side should have intently read this....well worth the reading of 210 pages of "legalese"...........

One interesting comment the study noted was "while referendums maybe viewed as critical to change a particular situation...they may not in the end decisively resolve the situation for years to come'

Sound like the results of the "leave vote"???

Another interesting question they raised was....."where does the sovereignty actually lie.....within Parliament or with the People"???

Second interesting point was and if one reads between the lines....the hundreds of years of a functioning Parliament has in fact built a substantial body of an unwritten "Constitution" and how does a referendum affect that body of an unwritten "Constitution". They often referred to things that needed to be decided in the absence of a "written Constitution"...

This referendum was run under the concept and you heard it repeated literally for hours and days out of UK..."the People have spoken" but did they? As the current UK "sovereignty" still lies within Parliament.

I can see it slowly coming....what if the SNP MPs pull out the devolution agreements tied to the EU as being the basis of an independence vote....WHAT they if they are joined by a large majority of MPs from both parties as many of them have not been for Leave and they vote to Remain over the heads of those that voted to Leave....using the argument they are defending the UK from great damage...

Actually fully legal.....as the sovereignty of the UK lies within Parliament not the People....

That is why there should have been the 2/3rds clause added to the ballot thus the referendum can be seen as "simply advisor in nature to Parliament.

BTW...refer to Page 77
"Referendums are one of the few ways in which under our "constitutional" settlement Acts of Parliament can be entrenched"....then continues on...quite interesting if one readings it correctly....

WHY is it important "then referendums can be/must be able to be repealed by Parliament....."

Notice the Leave camp never talked about this study did they....with good reason... I would not as well if I were them......

[OUTLAW 09]

Tax haven route won't work for post-Brexit UK, OECD says
http://reut.rs/299tAeZ

[OUTLAW 09]

EU tells Switzerland: no single market access if no free movement of people. Clear warning to UK & Brexit fantasists http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other …

UK is not a unique problem. Look at Switzerland where a revolt v free movement + referendum have also led to a crisis in relations with EU

BUT the Swiss need the access to single market as they share common borders and financial markets.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Everyone for themselves...."little Europe"....

Our current cover story: Everyone for themselves – Little Europe: The return of the past
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-triggers-eu-power-struggle-between-merkel-and-juncker-a-1100852.html …


Reference the power struggle mentioned in the Spiegel article...

Juncker faces his own exit as German Gov hints it could side with East European leaders who want EU commission president to go

[OUTLAW 09]

David.......notice the Lords's own use of the word "constitution" throughout the 210 pages".....and their views on just what are referendums and how they impact Parliament's decisions. Interesting that this study was done in 2009/2010.....long before Leave....


"The Select Committee on the Constitution" House of Lords.....

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200910/ldselect/ldconst/99/99.pdf

Titled "Referendums in the United Kingdom" 12th Session 2009/2010


Many on the Leave side should have intently read this....well worth the reading of 210 pages of "legalese"...........

One interesting comment the study noted was "while referendums maybe viewed as critical to change a particular situation...they may not in the end decisively resolve the situation for years to come'

Sound like the results of the "leave vote"???

Another interesting question they raised was....."where does the sovereignty actually lie.....within Parliament or with the People"???

Second interesting point was and if one reads between the lines....the hundreds of years of a functioning Parliament has in fact built a substantial body of an unwritten "Constitution" and how does a referendum affect that body of an unwritten "Constitution". They often referred to things that needed to be decided in the absence of a "written Constitution"...

This referendum was run under the concept and you heard it repeated literally for hours and days out of UK..."the People have spoken" but did they? As the current UK "sovereignty" still lies within Parliament.

I can see it slowly coming....what if the SNP MPs pull out the devolution agreements tied to the EU as being the basis of an independence vote....WHAT they if they are joined by a large majority of MPs from both parties as many of them have not been for Leave and they vote to Remain over the heads of those that voted to Leave....using the argument they are defending the UK from great damage...

Actually fully legal.....as the sovereignty of the UK lies within Parliament not the People....

That is why there should have been the 2/3rds clause added to the ballot thus the referendum can be seen as "simply advisor in nature to Parliament.

BTW...refer to Page 77 ..then continues on...quite interesting if one readings it correctly....

WHY is it important "then referendums can be/must be able to be repealed by Parliament....."

Notice the Leave camp never talked about this study did they....with good reason... I would not as well if I were them......

Leading London law firm Mischon de Reya is mounting a legal challenge: no Article 50 without parliamentary vote.

Article 50 process on Brexit faces legal challenge to ensure parliamentary involvement


Legal steps have been taken to ensure the UK Government will not trigger the procedure for withdrawal from the EU without an Act of Parliament. The case is being brought by leading law firm, Mishcon de Reya, on behalf of a group of clients. Following publication of articles on the subject this week Mishcon de Reya has retained Baron David Pannick QC and Tom Hickman to act as counsel in this action, along with Rhodri Thompson QC and Anneli Howard.

The Referendum held on 23 June was an exercise to obtain the views of UK citizens, the majority of whom expressed a desire to leave the EU. But the decision to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union, the legal process for withdrawal from the EU, rests with the representatives of the people under the UK Constitution.

The Government however, has suggested that it has sufficient legal authority. Mishcon de Reya has been in correspondence with the Government lawyers since 27 June 2016 on behalf of its clients to seek assurances that the Government will uphold the UK constitution and protect the sovereignty of Parliament in invoking Article 50.

If the correct constitutional process of parliamentary scrutiny and approval is not followed then the notice to withdraw from the EU would be unlawful, negatively impacting the withdrawal negotiations and our future political and economic relationships with the EU and its 27 Member States, and open to legal challenge. This legal action seeks to ensure that the Article 50 notification process is lawful.

Kasra Nouroozi, Partner, Mishcon de Reya said:

“We must ensure that the Government follows the correct process to have legal certainty and protect the UK Constitution and the sovereignty of Parliament in these unprecedented circumstances. The result of the Referendum is not in doubt, but we need a process that follows UK law to enact it. The outcome of the Referendum itself is not legally binding and for the current or future Prime Minister to invoke Article 50 without the approval of Parliament is unlawful.”

“We must make sure this is done properly for the benefit of all UK citizens. Article 50 simply cannot be invoked without a full debate and vote in Parliament. Everyone in Britain needs the Government to apply the correct constitutional process and allow Parliament to fulfil its democratic duty which is to take into account the results of the Referendum along with other factors and make the ultimate decision.”

Anyone wishing to support the action to ensure that the UK Constitution is upheld in this process should email Article50@Mishcon.com.


If the "Government" had read their own House of Lords research on the question of referendums...."the Government" would not be stating "we have sufficient legal authority" to move on their own without the sovereign approval of Parliament......

The last time I checked no UK political party nor their PM is higher than the Act of Parliament......

In some countries of this world that move by the "Government" against the acknowledged historical "sovereignty" might in fact be called a "coup" using the term "democracy".

[OUTLAW 09]

Independent Scotland joining EU could be part of Brexit "package deal"
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14594958.Independent_Scotland_joining_EU_could_be_ part_of_Brexit__quot_package_deal_quot_/?ref=twtrec …

[OUTLAW 09]

People find it popular to follow populist parties until they are elected.......

There is a great resemblance between those that vote of the UKIP and Trump these days.....

This was at least the fifth time Trump had tweeted a white supremacist meme. Channeling his core constituency.
http://wapo.st/29c9EwO

[OUTLAW 09]

Somehow you just cannot make this up as no one would believe it.......

Leave beats the drums to leave EU...THEN wins barely with a low turn out and then Boris Johnson the main Tory pusher of Leave does not want the PM position, BUT wants Article 50 triggered.......THEN Cameron quits as PM......THEN the Labor party is on the verge of falling into two parties...THEN the Tories are not much better off with 4/5 individuals wanting to be the next PM without an election....THEN a UK Law Firm is taking the Tory Government into Court for possibly violating the Act of Parliament THEN this today......

More rats are leaving the sinking ship after #Brexit
Nigel Farage resigns as UKIP leader

Meets Rupert Murdoch on Sunday, resigns on Monday morning.

BUT WAIT.....Murdoch supports Gove....for Tory PM.....after dropping support for Boris Johnson...

SI after crowing in the EU Parliament about his "win" and he is taking UK out of the EU...THEN this statement today.

BUT WAIT did he give up his paid UKIP MEP position in Brussels..seriously doubt it...

Does anyone have any idea what the Brits are up to and or really want...???

[OUTLAW 09]

Brexit, Czexit? Key Putin ally at heart of EU calls for Czech referendum on EU an NATO membership
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/czexit-could-be-next/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Somehow you just cannot make this up as no one would believe it.......

Leave beats the drums to leave EU...THEN wins barely with a low turn out and then Boris Johnson the main Tory pusher of Leave does not want the PM position, BUT wants Article 50 triggered.......THEN Cameron quits as PM......THEN the Labor party is on the verge of falling into two parties...THEN the Tories are not much better off with 4/5 individuals wanting to be the next PM without an election....THEN a UK Law Firm is taking the Tory Government into Court for possibly violating the Act of Parliament THEN this today......

More rats are leaving the sinking ship after #Brexit
Nigel Farage resigns as UKIP leader

Meets Rupert Murdoch on Sunday, resigns on Monday morning.

BUT WAIT.....Murdoch supports Gove....for Tory PM.....after dropping support for Boris Johnson...

SI after crowing in the EU Parliament about his "win" and he is taking UK out of the EU...THEN this statement today.

BUT WAIT did he give up his paid UKIP MEP position in Brussels..seriously doubt it...

Does anyone have any idea what the Brits are up to and or really want...???

For those of you who weren't paying attention. Here's where Aaron Banks announced Farage was resigning, 5 days ago.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/leave-donor-plans-new-party-to-replace-ukip-without-farage …

Was previously posted here in this thread.....they want to create a "voter friendly" alternative to Labor and see a chance to take Labor votes away.....thus cannot be seen as far rightist and or anti racist......

[Firn]

EU Support Surges in Denmark as Brexit Scare Spreads in Nordics (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/eu-support-surges-in-denmark-as-brexit-scare-spreads-in-nordics), according to Bloomberg.


Denmark became the latest Nordic country to experience rising public support for the European Union, defying predictions that a U.K. vote to exit would inspire other euro-skeptic corners of the bloc.

According to a Voxmeter poll published by Ritzau on Monday, 69 percent of Danes now back EU membership, up from 59.8 percent in a poll held prior to the U.K. vote. The poll also found that the proportion of respondents wanting a U.K.-style referendum had fallen to 32 percent from 40.7 percent.

I'm not surprised by those developments in Denmark as the political outfall in the UK was heavy and the negative economic consequences were strongly highlighted in Italian media. A surprisingly large space was giving to hate crimes against foreigners, in some cases through Italian citiziens living in the UK. If Danish reporting was similar it will have pushed EU support.

Who knows how this will influence the negotiations. On one hand their might less need for the EU to be harsh to avoid the dominio effect, on the other it might be deduced that a hard and principled EU approach is signaling properly and is thus working.

[OUTLAW 09]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1FajM51uvgHXzlrXzNZVHl1QW8/view?pref=2&pli=1

Parties fail to feed the public’s hunger for a solution

With the Tories and Labour spinning away to the extremes, millions have nowhere to go with their views and their votes

Paddy Ashdown

The Sunday Times 3 July 2016


A medieval bishop had the following prayer: “Lord, things are serious. This time please come yourself, this is no job for a boy.”

A people’s revolution lays waste to all previous European certainties. The sound of the tumbrils echoes round Westminster. One of the two party leaders of state has been beheaded and the other is being led to the gallows by his mutinous captains. Les Misérables march on Westminster behind a bunch of squabbling would-be leaders, who, beyond Brexit, agree on nothing and hate each other with a passion.

This is one of those revolutions that will end up devouring its children — as well as many innocent others along the way. What on earth that is good can be dragged out of this unholy mess? Actually there is something, if we on the modern progressive wing of politics now play our Cards cannily.

First a bit of analysis, then a short proposition.

Many of the great changes in British politics did not come through political parties, but through people’s movements that reshaped political parties. Think of the huge public meetings in Manchester that led to the Great Reform Act; think of the trades union movement, which gave birth to Labour; think of the suffragettes, think of the gay rights movement; think potentially of last Thursday, which looks as though it will now break both the Tories and Labour.

The new phenomenon of our time is the populist reverse takeover of political parties. Donald Trump did it to the Republicans, the hard left did it to Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party and the Brexiteers are about to do it to the Tories.

At one level all this is healthy and natural. Given the retreat of our political classes from the battleground of principle to the politics of managerialism, given the disconnect that has grown up between politics and people, some kind of convulsion was inevitable. But why does it always have to be a convulsion for something more ugly, more divisive, more xenophobic and more dangerous? Why is there never a convulsion for something better instead?

One big recent event points to the possibility of a movement for better things, rather than worse ones. The huge public outcry that erupted after the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox last month seemed to hint that what people felt was murdered that day was not just a remarkable person, but also their own cherished ideas and values.

The present 4m-strong petition for another referendum may not succeed. But it is a powerful expression of public hunger, beyond political parties, to find a way to fix the mess they think (me, too) we have created for ourselves.

And so we have arrived at a most intriguing situation. The two great parties-of-state that have dominated our politics for a hundred years are no longer able to contain the opinions within them. With both spinning away to the extremes, what happens to the homeless millions — in politics and outside — who now have nowhere to go with their views and their votes? There are my wonderful Liberal Democrats, of course.

But we were set back hugely at the last election and it will take time to get back where we were — and the next general election may only be months away. One of the barriers standing in the way of something more sensible is the political party itself. Look at a business model that does not take into account new technologies and you see a model that is on its way to failure. Though all our parties enthusiastically use the new technologies to communicate with the electorate, none uses them either in their internal structures or proposes them in the external practices of our politics.

The result is that engagement in political parties remains the preserve of the fanatic — and in the case of the Tories, supplemented by the geriatric. The Lib Dems don’t do fanatic, more’s the pity.

The political party and the political movement have become separated. We need to bring them back together again by widening access and lowering the cost of engagement. One model is the Five Star movement in Italy (but not its politics): internet-based, low membership fee, much more direct democracy. There are dangers here, not least of entryism and takeovers. But are they really less than the dangers of the organisational collapse of political parties that have become little more than clubs for the few, instead of voices for the many?

And while we are on the subject of new technologies, is there anything more
ridiculous than modern men and women doing their tax returns online, managing their bank accounts online and arranging to see their doctor online, but having to struggle through the wind and rain to a damp church hall to cast their votes with a stubby pencil by scratching a cross on a scrap of paper?

I am not suggesting that all political parties follow the Five Star model, and I am not suggesting forming one either. We’ll have to make do with what we have for the moment. But what about creating a space where those from any party and anyone who holds modern progressive views — those epitomised by Jo Cox — can gather to find the means to defend what is decent and call for something better than the politics of extremism and xenophobia? It would only be a start.

But with a general election perhaps soon, who knows where a start could lead . . . We would have to put aside the instinct in troubled times to seek refuge in the bosom of our own tribes. But is that such a price to pay when, in the words of Jo Cox, there is so much more that unites us than divides us?

Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon is a former leader of the Liberal Democrats


Ben Judah @b_judah
I can confirm that the Ashdown plan is significantly advanced: money has been raised.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1FajM51uvgHXzlrXzNZVHl1QW8/view …

Ben Judah @b_judah
Labour Left nightmare: the media oligarchs pump-up a new splinter party, awash with funding from City, which has got hold of Labour brand.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hammond 'We could have an informal discussion with European Union countries next week and we could perhaps come to an "understanding"

Well, we could, had this not been flat out rejected by all our former EU partners.

Standard Life suspends trading in its UK property fund after Brexit vote

Ben Judah ‏@b_judah

“The potential Brexit impact for the City of London is that up to 69 per cent of its interest rate derivatives market could move to EU."

Due to a lack of trade negotiators, Brexit Britain will need to hire immigrants for the job

[OUTLAW 09]

Ben Judah
‏@b_judah
Talk of a new party is mounting amongst Labour MPs.



July 4 2016, 5:00pm, The Times

As Labour splits, a new party is emerging
Rachel Sylvester


Three months ago the idea of a fresh political group was seen as foolish. Now the tectonic plates are beginning to move


Like the Fisher King in TS Eliot’s poem The Waste Land, Jeremy Corbyn presides over the Labour Party, impotent and unable to perform his task, while behind him his kingdom turns into an “arid plain”. “I was neither living nor dead, and I knew nothing,” says another voice in the poem. This Labour ordeal cannot — and will not — go on.

Yesterday, the leader posted a video message for members urging the party to “come together now”, but the mood of the moderates is hardening. The Unite union leader Len McCluskey may describe Mr Corbyn as a “man of…

Behind paywall........

Tom Watson told PLP he's meeting trade union leaders tomorrow over Corbyn as "a last throw of the dice".

Tom Watson had one-on-one meeting with Corbyn this morning. Corbyn made it clear he wasn't resigning.

[OUTLAW 09]

Leading London law firm Mischon de Reya is mounting a legal challenge: no Article 50 without parliamentary vote.

Article 50 process on Brexit faces legal challenge to ensure parliamentary involvement



If the "Government" had read their own House of Lords research on the question of referendums...."the Government" would not be stating "we have sufficient legal authority" to move on their own without the sovereign approval of Parliament......

The last time I checked no UK political party nor their PM is higher than the Act of Parliament......

In some countries of this world that move by the "Government" against the acknowledged historical "sovereignty" might in fact be called a "coup" using the term "democracy".

Those who campaigned Leave for parliamentary sovereignty are now unhappy at prospect of parliament being sovereign about whether to Leave.

Increasingly looks like that if Leavers want Brexit they are going to have to now do it the old fashioned way, with a parliamentary majority

Jo Maugham QC ‏@JolyonMaugham

We have assembled a team of three leading QCs and four leading Juniors to address different legal aspects of the Brexit decision.

Jo Maugham QC ‏@JolyonMaugham

We are also identifying prospective claimants including an MP, a representative of business, and a Regrexiter. Full statement tomorrow.

[Bill Moore]

EU Support Surges in Denmark as Brexit Scare Spreads in Nordics (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/eu-support-surges-in-denmark-as-brexit-scare-spreads-in-nordics), according to Bloomberg.



I'm not surprised by those developments in Denmark as the political outfall in the UK was heavy and the negative economic consequences were strongly highlighted in Italian media. A surprisingly large space was giving to hate crimes against foreigners, in some cases through Italian citiziens living in the UK. If Danish reporting was similar it will have pushed EU support.

Who knows how this will influence the negotiations. On one hand their might less need for the EU to be harsh to avoid the dominio effect, on the other it might be deduced that a hard and principled EU approach is signaling properly and is thus working.

Firn,

BREXIT may be the first step in reforming the EU. These reforms are desperately needed, individual countries need to be able to act independently (this is what sovereignty is all about). I'm not overly concerned, a thousand tweets claiming the sky is falling won't change that. There is also a chance this will make NATO stronger. The excessive political collectivism mandated by the EU makes Europe easier for Russia to manipulate.

[Dishonesty]

Rev. Ian Paisley turn in his grave.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland-idUKKCN0ZJ0E6

[OUTLAW 09]

'Not on the same page': Brexit poses threat to British universities
http://reut.rs/29hk13X

[OUTLAW 09]

Brits are now voting with their feet.......

Friend in Berlin just filed for German citizenship. Office told him they'd had 10 Brits a day, every day, for the past two weeks.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ahem........

Oxford Academic @OUPAcademic
"The whole campaign was, to some extent, a case study in how not to do democracy"
http://oxford.ly/29aDNZI


Post-truth, post-political, post-democracy: The tragedy of the UK’s referendum on the European Union

By Matthew Flinders
July 3rd 2016



I used to cringe at the title of John Keane’s magisterial book The Life and Death of Democracy because of my belief in the innate flexibility and responsiveness of democratic politics – there could be no death of democracy. Now I’m not so sure. There was something about the tone and tenor, the fear and menace of the whole referendum campaign that was somehow tragic. It was a dismal debate but the central defining characteristic was its rejection of basic facts, cold analysis, objective assessments or expert projections. ‘‘People in this country have had enough of experts’’ Michael Gove, one of the leading figures in the campaign to get the UK out of the European Union, responded when asked to name one leading economist or financial institution that thought leaving the EU was a good idea for the UK. It was ‘post-truth’, ‘post-fact’, strangely almost ‘post-political’ in the sense that emotive arguments concerning ‘control’, ‘power’ and ‘sovereignty’ were blended and set against ‘the other’ in the form of ‘immigrants’, ‘foreigners’, ‘European bureaucrats’, etc. The political calculation on which the Brexit campaign was based was alarmingly simple: ‘emotive claim + identified folk devil = ‘leave success.’

But the critical issue is not so much the actual result, but the complete failure of the political system to be able to cultivate a balanced and evidence-based public debate. Democracy was deceived and the public duped because the debate simply never got beyond the level of clichéd sound bites. It created heat but not light, smoke not fire, and noise but certainly no music. This was an argument that was made in several arenas and with increasing concern as the referendum date drew closer. In its report published at the end of May 2016, the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee complained that ‘‘The public debate is being poorly served by inconsistent, unqualified and, in some cases, misleading claims and counter-claims.’’ It added, ‘‘Members of both the ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ camps are making such claims.’’ But the standard of public debate did not improve, and the former Prime Minister, Sir John Major, felt forced to state publicly that he was ‘angry about the way the British people are being misled.’ He argued that Vote Leave were running ‘a deceitful campaign…They are feeding out to the British people a whole galaxy of inaccurate and frankly untrue information.’ Such claims resonate with a public letter signed by over 250 leading academics that suggested that the level of misinformation in the referendum campaign was so great that the democratic legitimacy of the final vote might be questioned.

The final vote has now been taken and it is being questioned exactly due to this widespread concern about the veracity of the (publicly funded) information provided to the public by both sides of the campaign.

Within hours of the referendum result being announced the blame games had begun with Nigel Farage admitting that the claim that £350 million a week could be saved by leaving the EU and invested in the National Health Service was ‘a mistake.’ The fact that 17 million members of the public had voted to leave the European Union in the wake of a campaign that had consistently featured this promise seemed almost trivial. (But possibly not to the millions of people who were at exactly the same time causing the government’s official public petitions website to crash with their demands for a second referendum.)

My argument is not therefore with the outcome of the referendum or how each and every person acted when they picked up the rather grubby little pencil in a generally grubby little voting booth and marked the crisp clean voting slip with a simple cross. My argument is with the architecture of politics and its inability to stop politicians spreading falsehoods and lies, its failure to enforce truthfulness.

Democratic politics tends to be slow, cumbersome, inefficient, hard to understand, and quite simply messy for the simple reason that democratic politics is an institutionalized form of conflict resolution that must somehow satisfy a vast array of competing demands. This was Bernard Crick’s simple argument in his Defence of Politics. Many of the arguments leveled at the European Union by the Brexit campaign therefore contained nuggets of truth – its institutions are inefficient, somewhat remote, and its decisions are frequently what economists would define as ‘sub-optimal’ – but nobody was ever trying to argue that the European Union was perfect, especially not the Remain camp. But the simple fact is that in the context of 28 very different member states these ‘problems’ or ‘weaknesses’ with the European Union can equally be viewed as the strength of the project in the sense that shared decision-making prevents conflict and generally directs shared resources towards shared risks. But the democratic arguments were always secondary to the economic arguments and even in this regard all that was achieved was an unedifying public spectacle in which politicians engaged in slurs and counter-slurs, claims against counter-claims, and deceit-upon-deceit. Turkey was not about to join the European Union, a European Army was not about to be unleashed, and of the £350 million that the UK pays in to the EU each week it receives well over half of this money back.

And yet playing ‘fast and lose’ with the truth can’t be placed at the door of just one person or side of the campaign. The whole campaign was, to some extent, a case study in how not to do democracy. But there is a dimension of the debate that has not yet been brought to the fore in relation to why the Remain campaign seemed so lackluster and the Brexit campaign so vigorously populist – the pressure of the status quo. The simple fact was that our membership of the European Union acted as a systemic pressure or brake on the claims that the Remain camp could make. Working relationships with European partners had to be retained. Leading figures in the Remain camp were therefore bound by the rather Procrustean realities of political life which left their concessions and pledges appearing rather limited and dry, especially when compared to the rhetoric of the Brexit leads. It was democratic politics in the sense of ‘the strong and slow boring of hard boards’ – to paraphrase Max Weber – against the populist burning of political bridges.

But the problem with populism is that it draws support on the basis that the world would be such a wonderful place if we could simply remove the cumbersome demands of democratic politics. In recent weeks just about every modern ailment has been placed at the door of either European bureaucrats or immigrants (generally both) and a simple solution offered – Brexit. In making such a political offer to the British public Messrs.’ Johnson, Gove, and Farage have raised the public’s expectations to the extent that far-reaching failure is to some extent arguably inevitable. What’s interesting from the autobiographies and memoirs of former presidents, prime ministers, and leading politicians is that electoral success rarely brings with it emotional confidence. Of course, to the outside world it is smiles and celebratory handshakes all around, but inside the dominant emotion is generally one of dread and a sense of foreboding. ‘What have I done?’ ‘How can I ever deliver what I have promised?’ are the questions that keep new leaders awake at night. In this context John Crace’s commentary on the hours after the referendum result was announced in Vote Leave’s headquarters takes on added meaning. ‘‘Boris and Gove were looking equally stunned. Neither had either expected to win or Cameron to resign, and what had started out as a bit of a game had become horribly real.’’ Crace wrote, ‘‘[Michael Gove] looked like a man who had just come down off a bad trip to find he had murdered one of his closest friends.’’

But the truth is that the biggest risk arising from the EU referendum is neither territorial nor economic, its not even demographic or legalistic — it’s the rise of a form of post-truth politics in which performance and personality matter more than the facts. For the large part the EU referendum was a truth-free zone, a post-political referendum of fairy tales, fantasy, and fig leaves. Dishonest before the truth means that democracy has been deceived, the public duped.

[OUTLAW 09]

After Brexit, EU proposes tougher tax rules on trusts indirectly or actually directly aimed at the City......
http://reut.rs/29jXzCY

[OUTLAW 09]

Standard Life suspends trading in its UK property fund after Brexit vote

Standard Life shuts property fund amid rush of #Brexit withdrawals

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/04/standard-life-shuts-property-fund-post-brexit-withdrawals …

[Bill Moore]

BREXIT campaign was based on lies, but then again most political campaigns are. When democracy equals populism, democracy fails. The alternative in the digital age is no democracy. 16 brits a day seeking German citizenship sounds like brits already working in Germany, it doesn't sound like a mass exodus.

[Azor]

Outlaw 09…

It is difficult to keep up with the posts on this thread, however, with respect to the linked articles, I see little insight and more of a foolhardy attempt to predict the future two-years hence as well as continued debating of the entire Brexit campaign as if there had not been a referendum. It is done, and if Cameron’s successor reverses course, which is very well possible, it would be anti-democratic and merely confirm that Brussels has co-opted the London financial and political class.

I have asked you before, and I will ask you again: if you are correct that Brexit will prove to be a disaster for the UK, and England in particular, that the EU can replace the British economy either through internal development or new markets, and that the UK was a thorn in the side of European unity due to its opt-outs and obstructionism, is Brexit not beneficial for the EU?


…you have not paid much attention to the UK actions inside the EU since they actually joined the EU....most of all the EU Commissioners at one time or another have openly complained that with every major economic/political decision UK wanted their own version

Then the Eurocrats should be jubilant that the troublesome UK is leaving and they are free to continue their project.


… I seriously doubt you yourself can even recite those reform adjustments...or can you?

Apparently it wasn’t enough now was it? Again, good riddance to the UK, no?


You honestly are trying to sell me the London Bridge are you not...

I believe it’s spoken for. The real question is: what are you trying to sell me? You are an American living in Germany and unaffected by Brexit. In contrast, Brexit has impacted me adversely both professionally and personally, and yet I consider this a temporary nuisance and not worth overturning democracy for.


…Then my friend you do not live in the UK...

Perhaps. Perhaps not. But my opinion of the EU was formed prior to the Brexit campaign. Again, your distance from the issue hasn’t prevented you from taking a strong interest in it, has it?


...we can replace all funding loses by using the EU fees we pay...THAT one was equally disproved RAPIDLY within 24 hours by even UKIP

The numbers show that the UK contributes 75% to more than 100% more to the EU in fees than it receives in EU spending. What was challenged was the assertion that the fees work out to GBP 350 million on a gross or net basis and the suggestion (“let’s” is not a policy) that the entirety of the savings could be directed to the NHS, which as Farage noted will be up to the government to determine.

Both the Leave and Remain campaigns glossed over the nuances of EU membership and used propaganda, including scare tactics. Unfortunately, your posts parrot every single Remain argument and you seem more interested in demonizing the Leave campaign rather than in discussing how to move forward.


The GBP is still at the lowest all time record point in it's life time...

Do you mean against the USD? Are you forgetting April 1984 through October 1985? Again, you ignore the GBP/EUR and GBP/JPY pairings, which I discussed in my earlier comments, as well as the USD’s recent strength vs. almost all other currencies.


...you are really hung up on Turkey in many of your comments as where many from Leave...BUT here is something that you did not hear when Turkey was used as an argument by say UKIP which is/was a major Leave driver...

Turkey is of no interest to me, other than my view that it should be expelled from NATO and that it not be allowed to join the EU. Perhaps several years ago it seemed probable that Turkey was due for EU membership, and certainly the German press was wary, but now it seems far off.


...did you vote for the new incoming Tory government NO you did not.

The British people elected a majority Conservative government and gave Cameron a clear mandate to carry out the EU referendum which was promised years ago. It is Cameron’s prerogative to step aside in favor of another leader. The British people do not elect their government: they elect their governing party.


...AND what compensation if any flows back to UK to assist in this devilment process and WHAT flows back to the UK as damages for forcing the EU to rewrite their laws and regulations….AND there will be damage claims calculated by the EU.....as now the 27 will present the UK a possible list of damages for their efforts as well.

The UK is not asking for money from the EU. It is exiting it which will save it money. If the EU presents a bill to the UK for damages incurred by distracting the Berlaymont from its daily work on ensuring that the Muslim RPG-7/AK-47 outdoor market in Brussels also doubles as a safe space for cross-dressing migrant youth who want to question why there is a need to be gainfully employed, then I assume it will be ignored. It will nevertheless be the most amusing thing Her Majesty has read in many years, to be sure… 


AS does it always happen in all divorce proceedings there are two sides to the same story and the UK has apparently totally forgotten that in their rush to Leave....

It is not a divorce. A divorce would be Scotland or Catalunya or Flanders. You are basically conceding that the EU’s consolidation of supranational control makes Brexit akin to secession.


You are as a worker allowed to look for work in other EU nations as labor is a commodity as Marx once stated...

Why are we quoting Marx? Why can’t non-EU workers look for work in the EU then?


BUT this is what you do not get....even if unemployed and you move IT DOES not get you social benefits in another country

Did I not post a reply on this? From my view, the issue is that the UK has an incredibly generous and welcoming system with regard to migrants and refugees, as with Sweden and Germany, and that because it is a target, the EU’s failure to stop migrant flows means that it is acting as a conduit to the UK. If the EU had standardized welfare benefits, than migrants would feel as at home in France, Serbia or Poland as the UK. In reality, they are flocking to Germany, Sweden and the UK because of domestic rather than EU policies, although the collapse of EU borders has created a crisis.


....the EFTA does not have say a EU Rural/Low Income Development Fund...CHECK the tariff structures of the EFTA vs EU single market...

The blog (http://euquestion.blogspot.ca/2016/04/the-cost-of-eu-membership-versus-efta.html)calculated the difference and to my knowledge EFTA tariffs were eliminated in '77. As the UK pays roughly double what it receives in EU spending, then there will be plenty of money to be allocated to rural development and Wales.


Your overall problem as it was with many Leave voters is you voted with emotion...

Thank you for explaining me to myself. The Remain side made their case and lost. This should be a wake-up call to the EU to sort itself about, but they will no doubt circle the wagons and double down on deepened integration.


BUT this is my complaint about all your comments....the Leavers evidently were in fact complaining bitterly about ...the long term effects of "globalization"...THAT my friend is "poor governance" which is not a problem of the EU but of the Brits....

Well, the EU set itself up as a driver of globalization with that extra bit of continental self-righteous sure to raise hackles in England. I’ve never agreed that the EU is to blame for everything, and in fact I squarely placed the blame for UK immigration issues on British policies from the post-war era. I get the feeling that you do not read my posts…like this one (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=188927&postcount=25).


…that so called real UK auto industry was built on EU/international investment premises that they would be actually in the EU... ..where will then these same multinationals go......simply across the Channel with both investments and plants....

Maybe. Maybe not. 45% of UK cars produced are exported to the EU (http://www.smmt.co.uk/2016/01/best-year-in-a-decade-for-british-car-manufacturing-as-exports-reach-record-high/), a substantial proportion to be sure, but not the raison d’etre that the UK produces cars.

If Brexit weighs on British car manufacturers and EU farms, one might expect an amicable agreement...

Part of the issue of German success is cultural. German labor relations are much more cordial than in say the UK or US and Germany has been quick to embrace automation, whereas in the UK and US unions have resisted it for decades. Another issue is that the Euro’s value has been dragged down since the financial crisis and by debt and unemployment crises in the PIGS group of EU economies. We all know that the Deutschmark would be much higher than the Euro and therefore weigh on German exports. In that respect, backstopping profligacy in Greece and the other sick men of the EU is part of the cost of doing business. As for the Germans’ ambivalence to contributing more to the EU or receiving over 1 million migrants, this is more to do with the Germans’ post-war guilt and shame and desire to make amends than it is about net benefit.

[davidbfpo]

Just checked in here and the tone has changed somewhat. I am temporarily closing this thread till AM local time to enable a pause and a review.

[davidbfpo]

This week long thread has had 226 posts and 3827 views.

The Forum is not a political discussion board, but rightly the UK's decision to Exit the EU was raised and has been debated - with a few posts on the possible impact strategically.

As readers can tell opinions are divided on the UK's decision and can at times become heated.

So on reflection this thread will remain closed for now. Should the situation change in the strategic sense it will be re-opened.