Poll: Fear, Anger, Stress Grip Iraqis

[Culpeper]

WASHINGTON (AP) - The optimism that helped sustain Iraqis during the first few years of the war has dissolved into widespread fear, anger and distress amid unrelenting violence, a survey found. (http://apnews.myway.com//article/20070319/D8NV7RE00.html)

[tequila]

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from both this and the more optimistic Brit poll is the incredible level of violence experienced by Iraqis.

From the BBC/ABC News poll: "More than half of Iraqis surveyed said a friend or relative has been hurt or killed in the violence, while almost nine in 10 worried that a loved one will be hurt."

From the OBR poll: "One in four (26%) Iraqi adults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23% of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years."

[goesh]

It's bad over there no doubt, lots of violent death. I just don't buy the polls purported 2.5 margin of error. The feelings/opinions of the Iraqi people could be alot worse than that or alot better but the one constant variable is the message of failure consistently foisted by the media on the American people. 100 Iraqi pollsters went out. Fine, but what was their prep training for this? Were they all men? How many were women pollsters? Did they indeed each and every time present an identical format for questioning? What days did they go out to do the polls? Would people returning from their Mosque be more inclined to have a positive attitude or a negative attitude? Were Kurds, Sunnis and Shias equally interviewed? How many interviews were done in homes, how many in business places and how many on the street? Is there a perceived and/or credible difference in opinions based on locations of the respondents? Would a street vendor be more apprehensive of bombs than say a housewife deep in residential section? How many Iraqi women were interviewed? How many men first had to give permission for their wives to be interviewed? How many men declined to have their wives interviewed? Could this skew the poll? How many respondents were policeman or military? Do cops and military perceive violence and threats differently as a group? What percentage of respondents had voted? Would people who voted have more hope than those who didn't? etc. etc. etc. We are told nothing of the methodology or control and reconciliation of variables in this poll yet the underlying message of a failed mission comes through loud and clear.

[tequila]

Info on ABC/BBC methodology here:

Field (http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=2954562&page=1)notes (http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=2954867&page=1).

Methodology (http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=2954886&page=1).

Full report and questionnaire (http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1033aIraqpoll.pdf).

Final tables with demographic and location breakdowns for the OBR poll here (http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/FINALTables.pdf).

[marct]

Very interesting! Thanks for the links, Tequila. The fieldnotes are well worth reading in full.

Marc

[goesh]

Thanks for the links, T. I remain skeptical. "7 out of 10 say they are careful what they say about themselves to other people" - that says alot right there as far as skewing a poll goes. Insurgents disguise themselves as police, sunni militias kill shias and visa-versa, so somebody pops up out of nowhere asking questions, doing a poll they say and I'm just not satisified that there wasn't alot of questions answered in part out of thinking/hoping the answers were what the pollsters were looking for. The cops followed some of the pollsters and word on the street would then put the pollsters in some degree of suspicion to begin with. The Methodology said the pollsters were "trained". Well, fine, but I'm not sure exactly what that means. ABC could also claim that I'm a trained expert in COIN because I served in Viet Nam 38 years ago.

[tequila]

I agree with you 100%. Polling is a very inexact science, even more so in a place gripped by sectarian violence and an insurgency like Iraq. However both polls provide additional information, and we are better informed once we read them and their methodologies.

However we should not leap to make automatic conclusions based on them, anymore than we would do so for a poll in the United States.

[Culpeper]

However we should not leap to make automatic conclusions based on them, anymore than we would do so for a poll in the United States.

Amen to that!

[SWCAdmin]

Irish panic during flood

[Culpeper]

The Irish never worry about something bad happening. They know it is going to happen. So, lets drink to that.