Syria in 2016 (October onwards) [Archive] - Page 10

CrowBat

12-13-2016, 09:19 PM

Finally the BBC has a broad view of the Syrian Civil War:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38289313

Aside from the general comments I found these two of note. Forum contributors have shown many times their grasp of the demise of the SAA:That author is doing little else but discovering hot water - and that about three years late.

At best, such commentary ist just a confirmation for how little various 'experts' and how little the MSM knows about this war.

Then this rather puzzling one and I do wonder what sources they have used:Erm... 'pardon, but what 'Western analysts' does he mean?

That aside, Russians are insisting on NOT working with any such groups. There's no doubt that there is 'some socialising' at lower levels. But, that's an entirely different pair of shoes from levels of decision-makers: it took Russians no less but 14 months to formalize their cooperation at least with the IRGC (not to talk about any other militias), just for example. The result of that is establishment of that phoney 'V Corps', Damascus officially announced on 22 November (http://mod.gov.sy//index.php?node=5642&nid=18987).

BTW, lookie at this statement:

Military analysts believe that without Russia's intervention from the air and the huge additional manpower provided by these militias, the Assad regime would have been swept away.
...this is something with which no serious student of this war could ever agree (and if, then it's no 'serious student'). At most, Russian participation simply takes away the blast from the IRGC: it's a 'useful distraction for foolish Western politicians and hysterical media' (or the other way around: hysterical politicians and foolish media, as you prefer).

Azor

12-13-2016, 09:25 PM

Finally the BBC has a broad view of the Syrian Civil War:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38289313

Aside from the general comments I found these two of note. Forum contributors have shown many times their grasp of the demise of the SAA:

Then this rather puzzling one and I do wonder what sources they have used:

David,

Firstly, I would say that it is important to dispel the myth that an Assad victory means stability in Syria. Historically, it is far simpler to raise polyglot mercenary armies than it is to disband them. Given that Assad is a mere figurehead, can we rely upon the Iranians to reign in the dogs that they have loosed?

Secondly, Russia's special forces have worked with a wide variety of criminal organizations and militias in Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. In Syria, I doubt that the Iranians would tolerate any militias refusing to cooperate with the Russians.

Azor

12-13-2016, 09:31 PM

At most, Russian participation simply takes away the blast from the IRGC: it's a 'useful distraction for foolish Western politicians and hysterical media' (or the other way around: hysterical politicians and foolish media, as you prefer).

Firstly, I don't think that Americans would understand how Washington could sign the JCPOA with Teheran on the one hand, and on the other, negotiate with it on the Syrian Civil War. Therefore, it serves Obama's purposes to frame the negotiations as Russo-American rather than Iranian-American. If Russia is obstructionist, well, it is a nuclear power with a permanent UNSC seat. Conversely, Americans would demand that the US threaten to abrogate the JCPOA if Iran's aggression in Syria and Yemen is not halted, and have far less of a problem loosing PGMs on Iran's bands of mercenaries.

Secondly, the effect of Russia's small air campaign (tiny compared to Operations Allied Force, Odyssey Dawn and Inherent Resolve) don't compare to that of the Shia mercenaries on the ground. In addition, I have seen little discussion of Russia's provision of advanced tanks and artillery nor crewing and maintaining Assad's ground equipment.

CrowBat

12-13-2016, 09:44 PM

Don't worry, I do understand the logic behind that with 'with how comes the USA are talking with and about Russians only'. That's just not making it right, though: that's like if one's got a skin cancer on the right hand, and doctor amputates testicles to cure the disease...

(Thinking of it: in this case actually, this is double-wrong, then it would be fairer to admit, 'OK guys, we've screwed up, Iranians have got nukes; we've got to respect that and must negotiate with them, can't cause a nuclear war'.)

In addition, I have seen little discussion of Russia's provision of advanced tanks and artillery nor crewing and maintaining Assad's ground equipment.Which is no surprise - because there's none.

Sure, Rosoboronexport would sell their wives and children for money. But, if one doesn't pay - and Assad can't pay, and Roso knows that - well, 'no bucks, no Buck Rogers'.

Iran pays, that's sure - but then Moscow doesn't want to steer in that hornet's nest. Thus, Tehran can pay, but they always get something else than they paid for: when they order MiG-31s, they get SA-22s instead; when they order 48 T-90s, they get 24 T-90s and 24 T-72Bs instead etc. (https://warisboring.com/iran-is-too-much-of-a-mess-to-acquire-russian-weaponry-999adf4017e9)

The situation is meanwhile such that Iranians prefer buying spares for Assadist L-39s and Su-22s from Belarus, than from Russia.

******

BTW, concurent with the next episode of the Star Wars saga, SOFREP is launching 'Pentagon vs CIA Wars, Episode XY': US Special Forces sabotage White House policy gone disastrously wrong with covert ops in Syria (https://sofrep.com/63764/us-special-forces-sabotage-white-house-policy-gone-disastrously-wrong-with-covert-ops-in-syria/)

The author of that piece, plus his sources, is so plain dumb, they do not even know who-is-who in their own house (namely, that it's not Oblabla who ordered them to do what they do with Syrians).

Not to talk about Syria.

The first thing that came to my mind when reading that piece was: and where exactly was the SOFREP, its authors and sources back in 2013, to explain the actual threat emitted by the Daesh?

Even now, three years later, they don't know this 'next generation of al-Qaida' they're babbling about, were the first to fight and defeat the Daesh (and that nearly a year before Foley was beheaded...).

They're so confused, they don't know the CIA never attacked the Khorasan until one year AFTER Foley was beheaded... but still, it's 1000% sure, these people 'know better'... about what, exactly?

EDIT: ah yes, and while trying to read it further, found only more rubbish. See here:

In 2014, it became perfectly clear that U.S.-supplied TOW missile launchers had fallen into the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda-affiliated group in Syria.
...
Distinguishing between the FSA and al-Nusra is impossible, because they are virtually the same organization.
This is pure, distilled, and double malt BS.

Now, sure: nobody can expect from a sensationalist idiot writing that piece to understand the difference between FSA and Nusra. But at least he could have done some basic homework and check how comes Nusra has got TOWs, and exactly how many of these has it got.

Namely: in 2 years of TOWs being deployed in this war, there were about 1,000 firings of them. Exactly 4 of these were 'fired by Nusra' - and then the gent who fired them 'for Nusra' (an ex-SAA officer who defected to the FSyA already back in 2011), was actually an FSyA-officer captured by Nusra during Nusra's attack on Harakat Hazzm's HQ.

(The other 3 TOWs were fired by Daesh, and it remains unclear where have they got them. Certain is only: 2 of these malfunctioned.)

Really, ceased reading that nonsense at that point.

Azor

12-14-2016, 12:35 AM

Don't worry, I do understand the logic behind that with 'with how comes the USA are talking with and about Russians only'. That's just not making it right, though: that's like if one's got a skin cancer on the right hand, and doctor amputates testicles to cure the disease...Thinking of it: in this case actually, this is double-wrong, then it would be fairer to admit, 'OK guys, we've screwed up, Iranians have got nukes; we've got to respect that and must negotiate with them, can't cause a nuclear war'.

As I have discussed previously, this sort of logic would have been better applied with respect to Libya in 2011, when it could be argued that Qaddafi was exempt from regime change because of his voluntary abandonment of nuclear weapons development.

Not the testicles!

Which is no surprise - because there's none.

No advanced Russian artillery and armor? Or no Russia providing it to the Iranians/Syrians?

The ground component of Russia's intervention seems to include the following:

Deployment of advanced artillery and tanks to Syria (e.g. T-90s, MSTA-Bs, BM-27/30s, TOS-1As), including at least 300 artillery systems and the 120th Artillery Brigade
Crewing of these systems by regular forces (120th), special forces and possibly mercenaries
Possibly crewing Syria's existing artillery and armor systems (special forces and mercenaries)
Repairing damaged Syrian systems in Latakia (maintenance personnel)

See:

War is Boring (https://warisboring.com/russia-brings-its-big-guns-to-syria-2f4ed769dd20#.odkhy17n8)
OE Watch (http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/OEWatch/201511/201511.pdf)
RFE (http://www.rferl.org/a/syria-russia-us-officials-heavy-artillery/27345610.html)

Quite frankly, I think that the Russian ground component of its intervention has been much more decisive than its air campaign. Note that after Russian intervention and under Iranian tutelage, the NDF took artillery much more seriously.

Iran pays, that's sure - but then Moscow doesn't want to steer in that hornet's nest. Thus, Tehran can pay, but they always get something else than they paid for...

Yes, which is probably why S-400s would only appear in Teheran if the Kremlin wanted to make a statement and if the systems were under Russian operation.

BTW, concurrent with the next episode of the Star Wars saga, SOFREP is launching 'Pentagon vs CIA Wars, Episode XY'...

The author of that piece, plus his sources, is so plain dumb, they do not even know who-is-who in their own house (namely, that it's not Oblabla who ordered them to do what they do with Syrians).

Not to talk about Syria.

The first thing that came to my mind when reading that piece was: and where exactly was the SOFREP, its authors and sources back in 2013, to explain the actual threat emitted by the Daesh?

Even now, three years later, they don't know this 'next generation of al-Qaida' they're babbling about, were the first to fight and defeat the Daesh (and that nearly a year before Foley was beheaded...).

They're so confused, they don't know the CIA never attacked the Khorasan until one year AFTER Foley was beheaded... but still, it's 1000% sure, these people 'know better'... about what, exactly?

EDIT: ah yes, and while trying to read it further, found only more rubbish.

Now, sure: nobody can expect from a sensationalist idiot writing that piece to understand the difference between FSA and Nusra. But at least he could have done some basic homework and check how comes Nusra has got TOWs, and exactly how many of these has it got.

Namely: in 2 years of TOWs being deployed in this war, there were about 1,000 firings of them. Exactly 4 of these were 'fired by Nusra' - and then the gent who fired them 'for Nusra' (an ex-SAA officer who defected to the FSyA already back in 2011), was actually an FSyA-officer captured by Nusra during Nusra's attack on Harakat Hazzm's HQ.

(The other 3 TOWs were fired by Daesh, and it remains unclear where have they got them. Certain is only: 2 of these malfunctioned.)

Really, ceased reading that nonsense at that point.

SOFREP is propagating a narrative that the DOD is in conflict with the CIA, probably because the former was embarrassed by the revelation that only a handful of its trainees were fighting Daesh after tens of millions spent.

The DOD could have been honest and said:

We were trying to train and equip Syrian Sunni Arabs only to fight Daesh and not Assad, so we couldn't be accused of regime change
We couldn't find enough of these Syrians who felt that Daesh was the worse threat
The CIA has vetted and armed Sunni Arab rebel groups who are fighting both Assad and Daesh
Assad is killing and displacing more Sunni Arabs than Daesh (4:1)
Most trainees joined whichever rebel groups were fighting Assad, including Nusra

Instead, the DOD has effectively said:

The train and equip program failed because the Sunni Arabs are all Islamists
The trainees mostly joined Daesh and Nusra
We shouldn't train or equip any more Sunni Arabs
The Kurds are our only true partners

Yet Obama is truly to blame for pitting the CIA and the DOD against one another (plausible deniability sure worked), and for trying to customize the Syrian Civil War to suit his political needs.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 05:33 AM

As I have discussed previously, this sort of logic would have been better applied with respect to Libya in 2011, when it could be argued that Qaddafi was exempt from regime change because of his voluntary abandonment of nuclear weapons development.

Not the testicles!

No advanced Russian artillery and armor? Or no Russia providing it to the Iranians/Syrians?

The ground component of Russia's intervention seems to include the following:

Deployment of advanced artillery and tanks to Syria (e.g. T-90s, MSTA-Bs, BM-27/30s, TOS-1As), including at least 300 artillery systems and the 120th Artillery Brigade
Crewing of these systems by regular forces (120th), special forces and possibly mercenaries
Possibly crewing Syria's existing artillery and armor systems (special forces and mercenaries)
Repairing damaged Syrian systems in Latakia (maintenance personnel)

See:

War is Boring (https://warisboring.com/russia-brings-its-big-guns-to-syria-2f4ed769dd20#.odkhy17n8)
OE Watch (http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/OEWatch/201511/201511.pdf)
RFE (http://www.rferl.org/a/syria-russia-us-officials-heavy-artillery/27345610.html)

Quite frankly, I think that the Russian ground component of its intervention has been much more decisive than its air campaign. Note that after Russian intervention and under Iranian tutelage, the NDF took artillery much more seriously.

Yes, which is probably why S-400s would only appear in Teheran if the Kremlin wanted to make a statement and if the systems were under Russian operation.

SOFREP is propagating a narrative that the DOD is in conflict with the CIA, probably because the former was embarrassed by the revelation that only a handful of its trainees were fighting Daesh after tens of millions spent.

The DOD could have been honest and said:

We were trying to train and equip Syrian Sunni Arabs only to fight Daesh and not Assad, so we couldn't be accused of regime change
We couldn't find enough of these Syrians who felt that Daesh was the worse threat
The CIA has vetted and armed Sunni Arab rebel groups who are fighting both Assad and Daesh
Assad is killing and displacing more Sunni Arabs than Daesh (4:1)
Most trainees joined whichever rebel groups were fighting Assad, including Nusra

Instead, the DOD has effectively said:

The train and equip program failed because the Sunni Arabs are all Islamists
The trainees mostly joined Daesh and Nusra
We shouldn't train or equip any more Sunni Arabs
The Kurds are our only true partners

Yet Obama is truly to blame for pitting the CIA and the DOD against one another (plausible deniability sure worked), and for trying to customize the Syrian Civil War to suit his political needs.

Azor......if you really check the fighting it has been largely reduced to the simple...."let's reduce everything to rubble before we send in what remaining Shia forces we the SAA have left"....the use of air strikes...artillery...TOS-1....S22s....GRADS....tank fire....is strictly one of stand off attacks being used to produce the "rubble"......

Nothing more or less than the Russian doctrine of Grozny War 1 and 2....we could call this the standard Russian COIN v3 on how to win the hearts and minds of an insurgency.........

The entire key to Syria has been really simple and yet Obama did not want to do it..remove Assad.......

The reason for this is the core to understanding the lack of an Obama FP confronting Russia and Iran...BTW he failed to also confront Russia on Ukraine and failed to counter directly the Russian info and cyber war directed straight at the US.................EXAMPLE he openly now talks about cyber attacks instead of in Sept during the campaign.......

Answering the why should be the basis of a lot of articles which for some reason there are none...instead we get a fake proxy war of CIA VS DoD....as the distraction...

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:03 AM

Syrian UN Ambassador Jaafari is using fake pics again.

1. There's no Syrian army.any more.
2. Assad's militias kill ppl
3. the pic he used is from Iraq.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:09 AM

CrowBat

12-14-2016, 06:18 AM

As I have discussed previously, this sort of logic would have been better applied with respect to Libya in 2011, when it could be argued that Qaddafi was exempt from regime change because of his voluntary abandonment of nuclear weapons development.Sorry, nope: there is no solution for such extremist outgrowths like Daesh, but removal of dictators: dictators are the core reason for emergence of such ideology.

Thinking anything else is anywhere between an illusion and a farce.

No advanced Russian artillery and armor? Or no Russia providing it to the Iranians/Syrians?No Russia providing it to the Iranians & others - except if these have outright purchased systems in question. Since nobody there but the IRGC has the necessary money, nobody - except the IRGC - gets anything at all.

And re. Russian military involvement: military-wise, at the pike of its deployment in Syria - back in February-May this year - Russians used to have about a dozen of battalion-sized task forces in the country. More precisely, as already posted here and as described half a year ago in What's Left of the Syrian Arab Army (https://warisboring.com/whats-left-of-the-syrian-arab-army-eec39485df43#.pyfb79nr3):

- The HQ is supported by a company from the 66th Signal Brigade. There is a strong EW component including a company with 4 1RL257 Krashukha-4 jamming systems and about 20 troops from the 17th Electronic Warfare Brigade, and another company equipped with 6 R-330B UHF-jamming systems, 3 R-378 HF jamming systems, and 6 1L29 SPR-2 Rtut-B radio-proximity-fuse jamming systems from the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade, with a total of 60 troops.

- The security component is including a SPETSNAZ battalion consisting of companies drawn from the 3rd SPETSNAZ Brigade and the 22nd Guards SPETSNAZ Brigade, totalling about 230 troops. Other SF-type units reported as in Syria include one battalion of the 16th SPETSNAZ Brigade, one battalion from the 24th SPETSNAZ Brigade, and a sniper team from the Senezh Brigade (Russian Army's SOF Command).

- Outside perimeter of the Hmemmem AB/Basel al-Assad IAP is protected by the 542nd Assault Battalion of the 810th Marines Brigade, which has established a number of strongpoints around this area.

- Air defence is including one S-350, one S-300, one SA-17, and two Pantsyr S1 systems.

- An unknown unit operating UAVs - including Orlan-10s. The asset in question probably belongs to the GRU. Orlan-10s are said to be used not only for reconnaissance, but to jam GSM-telecommunications too.

- elements of the 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, including two motor rifle companies and one tank company (T-90), approx. 320 troops, deployed in southern Aleppo Governorate;

- elements of the 28th Motor Rifle Brigade, probably a battalion-sized task force, deployed in northern Hama Governorate;

- elements of the 32nd Motor Rifle Brigade, probably a battalion-sized task force, deployed in Hama Governorate;

- elements of the 34th Motor Rifle Brigade, probably a battalion-sized task force (reportedly arriving in Tartous in November 2015);

- elements of the 61st Marine Brigade, including one battalion of combat engineers, deployed in Palmyra since April 2016;

- elements of the 74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, including an unknown Reconnaissance Battalion, approx. 440 troops, present in Hama area;

- two 'detachments' of the 336 Marines Brigade, protecting a GRU element deployed at the ELINT/SIGINT base and a part of Khelkleh AB, and another deployed at as-Suwayda AB

- elements of the 810th Marines Brigade, including HQ and 542nd Assault Battalion, up to 580 troops; protecting Hmemmem AB, Lattakia

- elements of the 7th Guards Assault Division, including 162nd Reconnaissance Battalion;

- another, unknown battalion of combat engineers; designation unknown, but also deployed in Palmyra area

- 1 Battery (6 pieces) of MSTA-B towed howitzers from 8th Artillery Regiment;

- 3 Batteries (18 pieces) of MSTA-B towed howitzers from 120th Artillery Brigade;

- 2 Batteries (4 pieces) of SMERCH MRLS systems from the 439th Guards Rocket Artillery Brigade; and

- 6 TOS-1A flamethrower vehicles from the 20th NRBC Regiment.

Ever since news appeared about deployment of that Wagner PMC, especially in Palmyra and - more recently - in Aleppo area.

I do not claim this list to be 100% correct and complete, and tell me I'm boasting if you like: but, I haven't seen anything even distantly as precise as this list. While collecting all the info in question, I found no trace of evidence for Russians crewing any kind of Syrian artillery or armour systems, nor about them becoming directly involved in maintaining or repairing any kind of damaged systems.

What they did was to train certain of units (can provide a list of units in question too); they did plan and advise specific operations (almost exclusively those in NE Lattakia and then northern Hama, back in October-December 2015; then in Palmyra, and more recently in Aleppo), and they supported some of operations with own troops (NE Lattakia, then Palmyra, and now Aleppo). But, there is simply no evidence for them using Syrian military equipment.

Quite frankly, I think that the Russian ground component of its intervention has been much more decisive than its air campaign. Note that after Russian intervention and under Iranian tutelage, the NDF took artillery much more seriously.Assadist militias were taking artillery seriously all the time - and that for two reasons:

a) of all the elements of various divisions of the ex-SAA, artillery-regiments were the most intact-component left; and

b) it was their only major advantage in comparison to the insurgents. That's why every single Katiba and Liwa (of different militias) has anything between 3 and 12 artillery pieces in its complement.

Russian ground component was so far 'more decisive than its air campaign' in only two cases:

- 1.) NE Lattakia, in October 2015, where the 28th, 32nd and the 34th Motor Rifle Brigades, and the 810th Marines Brigade, supported by the 120th Artillery Brigade, the 439th Guards Rocket Artillery Brigade and the 20th Rocket Regiment - were responsible for the first breach of the FSyA's frontline in Ghamam.

The village in question - some 30km NE of Lattakia - was assaulted by Assadists for weeks: they've captured it three times and lost it three times, until Russians deployed their Army to finally capture that place. Before Ghamam finally fell to Russian onslaught (that was in early November 2015), FSyA didn't lose a single inch of ground in NE Lattakia.

- 2.) Palmyra, in March 2016.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:29 AM

Assad on Aleppo to RT:West is telling Russia we went too far in defeating terrorists’ (EXCLUSIVE)
https://www.rt.com/news/370213-assad-interview-palmyra-aleppo/#

NOTICE he never views his actions of starvation...besieging....barrel bombs....chlorine gas attacks...napalm use.....genocide as anything other than "normal".....

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:35 AM

Russian Syria Express....

Russian Navy's Ropucha Class LLC G. Pobedonosets 016 northbound on the Bosphorus, returning from Syria.

CrowBat

12-14-2016, 06:35 AM

SOFREP is propagating a narrative that the DOD is in conflict with the CIA, probably because the former was embarrassed by the revelation that only a handful of its trainees were fighting Daesh after tens of millions spent.That plus that idiotic belief in 'superiority of our military and our arms' and 'peace through kinetic solutions' - which is so widespread and prevalent in all of the US military.

Here a classic example: ask whomever you like - in the Pentagon, and anywhere in the US military - about reasons for success of the 'Surge' in Iraq. They'll all - to the last - blurt something like 'General Petraeus, a military genius' and 'massive reinforcements of US troops' and 'aggressive operations' and 'we've killed plenty of Hajis'...

...which is simply nonsense, and that's mildly expressed.

Namely, what really won the day back then was that Petraeus personally and literally distributed about US$ 450 million in cash to leaders of Sunni insurgency in Iraq. He met and bribed every single one of them to stop fighting US troops and fight the AQI instead (and there are high-quality videos documenting each such meeting!).

Petraeus did so in face of bitter complaints and protests from literally every single officer under his command (and I really mean: every single officer), plus most of informed politicians - all of whom were crying in style of, 'but they're our enemies' and 'we now go patrolling with people who killed Americans'.

As so often in history, simplest solutions work the best.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:41 AM

Azor......if you really check the fighting it has been largely reduced to the simple...."let's reduce everything to rubble before we send in what remaining Shia forces we the SAA have left"....the use of air strikes...artillery...TOS-1....S22s....GRADS....tank fire....is strictly one of stand off attacks being used to produce the "rubble"......

Nothing more or less than the Russian doctrine of Grozny War 1 and 2....we could call this the standard Russian COIN v3 on how to win the hearts and minds of an insurgency.........

The entire key to Syria has been really simple and yet Obama did not want to do it..remove Assad.......

The reason for this is the core to understanding the lack of an Obama FP confronting Russia and Iran...BTW he failed to also confront Russia on Ukraine and failed to counter directly the Russian info and cyber war directed straight at the US.................EXAMPLE he openly now talks about cyber attacks instead of in Sept during the campaign.......

Answering the why should be the basis of a lot of articles which for some reason there are none...instead we get a fake proxy war of CIA VS DoD....as the distraction...

Like the rest of US foreign policy, US public diplomacy was subordinated to -- and hollowed out by -- the needs of rapprochement with Iran.

Actually this idea underlines ...goes a long way in explaining why Obama outright failed to confront Putin on just about anything anything.....REMEMBER the praise Obama heaped on Russia and Putin just after the Iran Deal was announced.....actually his praise of Putin's efforts is no different than Trump's comments on Putin when one compares their statements.....

Obama just hid his full 500% Iranian/Russian tilt under the mantra..."doing not stupid".......

This Obama let's not rock the Russian boat led directly to this......in my world of IT counter security...if you are hit by a hacker and do not respond..the next attack is harder and more intense.....Obama's blatant failure to confront Putin on just about anything led directly to this....

The Perfect Weapon: How Russian Cyberpower Invaded the U.S.
http://nyti.ms/2hBJis3

A must read

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:45 AM

WHAT did these people do to deserve this. They are being slaughtered like animals.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:57 AM

Azor.......here is further proof who has the say inside Syria......

#Syria rebels, activists say Iranian militias preventing evacuations from #Aleppo -demanding wounded in besieged loyalist town Fua evacuated

U.S. Embassy Syria
✔
@USEmbassySyria
Kirby: Reps from US & Russia met to try to finalize agreement that would allow for safe, voluntary departure of civ+oppo from E #Aleppo.

Kyle W. Orton
✔
@KyleWOrton
So this is where we are in #Syria: hoping our plan to facilitate ethnic cleansing is acceded to by #Assadists to spare people annihilation.

Reuters: Aleppo evacuation may be delayed until Thursday
http://www.unian.info/world/1677691-reuters-aleppo-evacuation-may-be-delayed-until-thursday.html#

Khamenei is now in the middle of this agreement

Successful implementation of the evacuation deal is a real test of Russia's alleged leadership of the "axis of resistance".

CrowBat

12-14-2016, 07:35 AM

Reuters: Aleppo evacuation may be delayed until Thursday
http://www.unian.info/world/1677691-reuters-aleppo-evacuation-may-be-delayed-until-thursday.html#

Khamenei is now in the middle of this agreement

Successful implementation of the evacuation deal is a real test of Russia's alleged leadership of the "axis of resistance".
Indeed: I forgot to observe this yesterday evening.

Namely: only NOW - i.e. provided this 'cease fire + evacuation works' - are we going to see if Russia has really any kind of effective control over the IRGC and Assad.

CrowBat

12-14-2016, 08:34 AM

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 10:08 AM

In that sense, here we can see how much 'control' are Russians really exercising over the IRGC - and thus Assadists too.

Namely, the Russo-Turkish agreement about the cease-fire in Aleppo is said to have made Assadists unhappy (https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/808914089003122689) (because Russians didn't consult them about this issue), and seems to be ignored by the IRGC (what a surprise...): this is blocking the exit routes and shooting at ambulance cars (https://twitter.com/24Aleppo/status/808937136590307328), shooting randomly at the rest of the insurgent-held pocket (https://twitter.com/AhmadAlkhtiib/status/808940547058581504), shelling it (https://twitter.com/AhmadAlkhtiib/status/808946724131708928) (not visible, but listen to this video), and seem to have provoked a fight south of the Radio Building (https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/808950206687563776).

...and meanwhile there are multiple reports that the shelling re-started (https://twitter.com/Paradoxy13/status/808948146277584896)...

The weather over the city remains bad, thus Assadists can't continue the carnage by bombing from the air...

Shelling's and attacks by Shia militias have started up again and basically the Russia deal has largely fallen apart NOT because of the rebels..Turkey and the US....BUT AND THIS is massively important ...BECAUSE Russia cannot control it's own proxies.....

Goes to the heart of a question I posted here literally months ago...WHO are the proxies in this war and is really Russia being played as a "proxy" by both Assad and Khamenei......

NOW we are seeing Russia is in fact the proxy.....Putin is having to finally get close to making a decision to stand up and use force on Assad and the Shia or cave and get sucked more into a Vietnam style war with the rebels holding the countryside and Assad the cities.....which will go on for decades....

DAILY SABAH
✔
@DailySabah
LATEST — Syrian opposition officials state that Iran has introduced additional conditions to the Aleppo truce deal
http://sabahdai.ly/Ou6l5b

Assad regime forces and Iran-backed Shiite militias attacked Aleppo on Wednesday, violating the latest truce reached after mediation efforts from Turkey, while the sound of explosions were heard in the city on early in the day.

Syrian opposition officials confirmed the attacks in Aleppo and said that regime forces have resumed despite the cease-fire deal.
An agreement for the imminent evacuation of civilians and opposition fighters from east Aleppo in Syria was reached on Tuesday after mediation efforts from Turkey.

Turkey's foreign ministry confirmed the reports of the ceasefire, saying the civilians and opposition fighters will be moved to Idlib under the deal reached after Turkey's weeks-long efforts.

According to the truce deal, there will be no limitations on moderate oppositions leaving Eastern Aleppo joining the Turkish-backed moderates currently fighting Daesh as part of Operation Euphrates Shield, official had said.

On the other hand, representatives of two Syrian opposition groups and a U.N. official said that Iran had introduced new conditions to the ceasefire and evacuation deal negotiated by Russia and Turkey. One of the opposition representative and the U.N. official said Iran, which backs some militias fighting in Aleppo on the government side, wanted a simultaneous evacuation of wounded from the villages of Foua and Kefraya that are besieged by rebels.

Syria more than 150 artillery shells fired on besieged #Aleppo neighborhoods the past 2 hours

Russia has got to be concerned that if this falls apart that TAF/FSA can in fact swing towards Aleppo bringing Iraqi Shia militias and IRGC into some serious problems as the Turks have quality air and artillery support as well as a now well combat trained FSA....they have the armor now on the ground for a armored fast push if coupled with their artillery and air power...

AND have been very critical of the genocide in Aleppo over the last few days...which IMHO has caught the attention of Putin....

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 10:14 AM

THIS is exactly why some of us know far more about Russian hacking than the incoming President seems to know...although he has stated "he is smart"....

Hacktivists vs Faketivists: Fancy Bears in Disguise
https://www.threatconnect.com/blog/faketivist-vs-hacktivist-how-they-differ/#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 10:43 AM

CrowBat.....did you catch anything on the Russian CW attack against IS positions at about the same time as Assad was using Sarin?

Saw a short comment by IS that caught my attention but it went under with the Aleppo chatter.....

IS claimed they were hit by Russian aircraft with a CW that was odorless and colorless....and caused loses...

Highly interested in anything you have heard as it appears to have been the same CW used by Russian spetsnaz troops when they were overrunning the Ukrainian Cyborg unit holed up inside the ruins of the Donetsk International Airport....they reported over radio before contact was lost that they had been hit with an odorless and colorless gas that killed and or incapacitated....which then allowed the Russian spetsnaz to get close enough to their building to place charges and destroy the building ....that was in late 2014.....

UAF seemed at that time to have alluded to the gas as being the same CW weapon the Russians had used during a failed attempt to free Russian school children and teachers during a Chechen Black Widow terrorist school raid........

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 10:47 AM

THIS has to be a tad embarrassing for the Russian MoD.........Russian troops literally running for their lives in the face of an IS attack by 500 fighters....kind of destroys the myth of that "modern well trained Russian solider"....?????

A Russian serviceman's credit card left at the abandoned Palmyra base captured by ISIS terrorists

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 10:50 AM

A Recent Decrease of #Oil Production in #Syria? Open Source Monitoring of Makeshift Oil Sites
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/12/14/recent-decrease-oil-production-syria-overview-open-source-monitoring-makeshift-oil-sites-deir-ez-zor/#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 10:53 AM

ARE we now seeing the true limits of Russian so called military power when they cannot even get their own so called allies to adhere to what they have negotiated???????? AND Trump wants to be their "friend"...when they cannot even hold to what they have stated they themselves have negotiated...?????????

Ukrainians will be watching this closely.......

Aleppo activist: we prepared injured people to be evacuated yesterday via Jisr al haj but Nujaba militia refused to let them out

Syria More airstrikes now on besieged neigborhoods in #Aleppo city

East Aleppo residents sending steady stream of audio recording capturing sound of heavy fighting around them. Evacuation buses have left.

REMEMBER these Russian Ambassador statements.....

1. Russian Syrian Ambassador......Assad will not attack Aleppo....

2. YESTERDAY at the UNSC...Russian Ambassador Churkin stated....."the fighting is over"........

BOTH lied and lied and lied.....AND Trump believes he can do deals with Putin??????

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 11:46 AM

Samantha Power
✔
@AmbassadorPower
Latest from #UpsideDownLand–in emergency #UNSC mtg on #Aleppo,#Russia calls reports of women&kids being executed by Assad forces "fake news"

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 11:53 AM

Syrian army has resumed assault on Aleppo, buses meant to take rebels & civilians out of the city have turned back
http://read.bi/2gHDQ6J

Erdogan says the ceasefire "last hope" for the innocent in Aleppo @AFP

CrowBat

12-14-2016, 12:26 PM

CrowBat.....did you catch anything on the Russian CW attack against IS positions at about the same time as Assad was using Sarin?Except for latest casualty figures (94 killed, over 450 injured) - nothing 'serious'.

I'm in the process of checking, of course, but (and to make sure: I've read the rest of your post, and recall to have read similar reports from the Ukraine), I doubt it was Russians who did that: that's Assadist style.

Why do I think that way?

Because nobody within the ranks of the SyAAF has any kind of illusions. Part of them are happy when they do things of that kind, and sometimes even bragging about them on the social media (like in the case of attack on that UN-convoy, back in October) - while others are perfectly aware of the fact they've been criminalized by the regime.

Tragically, the latter group can't do anything to avoid that - and some of them are even convinced they'll all be held accountable, 'sometimes in the future'.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 12:49 PM

You know who's having a good week besides Khamenei and Putin? Baghdadi and Zawihiri:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/14/aleppo-residents-evacuation-uncertainty-ceasefire-deal-assad?CMP=share_btn_tw#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 12:57 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 01:06 PM

CIT (en) @CITeam_en
Aleppo ceasefire and evacuation disrupted. @mod_russia blames the rebels, while journalists and activists accuse Iran and Assad forces

LET'S look again at exactly how Russia is lying .......

1. reports first this morning of artillery shelling's....rebels do not have any

2. then reports of SAF coming from the Assad positions

3. reports of ambulances being shot at from the Assad side

4. THEN Assad air strikes.....

5. AND then more artillery
Pounding the east of Aleppo with dozens of artillery shells since one hour until now we have counted more than 100 rounds counted.

AND at the same time all of this is happening the rebels with their families and civilians are waiting in the rain for busses to pick them up and to move the injured and wounded.....

Al Jazeera English
✔
@AJEnglish
People were waiting to be evacuated when shelling started again in East Aleppo.
A ceasefire was supposed to be in place.

NOTICE not a single western leader and or the Turks call the Russians out on this blatant attempt to cover up their own failure in reigning in their own proxies.....

AGAIN the valid question who is a proxy for whom...appears Russia is the proxy for the Iranians and Assad....and nothing they say can change that perception....

CrowBat...can you confirm that the cluster munitions were Russian dropped or Assad dropped...

BREAKING
Brother @ZouhirAlShimale film #Russia terror Cluster Bombs airstrikes in front of him
#Aleppo #Syria Dec14

Cluster bombs attacks now..
#SaveOurSoul
#Save_Aleppo
We are being killed now!
Maybe will lose the connection shortly.
#Aleppo

Syria #Russia conducted 3 airstrikes with cluster bombs on #Aleppo's besieged neighborhoods

NOW Russian AF is using thermobaric bombs against nothing but unprotected civilians and that is not a war crime against humanity....????
Aleppo: #Russia|n warplanes bombing besieged Eastern #Aleppo with vakuum bombs.

Shame is Sam's. I expect Russia to act like thugs (see: Groznyy). I expect R2P-obsessed Americans not to allow it.
http://www.businessinsider.com/samantha-power-russia-assad-aleppo-2016-12#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 01:08 PM

CrowBat....is Erdogan now signaling his intentions over Aleppo in a not so unsubtle manner to Putin.........????

Erdogan declared today a national mobilization, claimed #Turkey is going through a new era like the War of Independence at the end of WWI.

ERDOGAN: Turkey is under attack from terrorist groups and needs to retaliate
http://read.bi/2gZOlym

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 01:09 PM

MORE Russian disinformation ie "fake news"......

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Visa genocide. Yes, this term is used by pro-Kremlin media. Read #DisinfoReview for more unbelievable #fakenews:
http://eepurl.com/ctexgj

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:00 PM

Aleppo: #Assad militias looting in Eastern #Aleppo.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:05 PM

Aleppo: 1,000 civilians are being held in #Iran|ian checkpoint as they tried to pass from Eastern #Aleppo but were denied access.

Rebels are now paying back Khamenei...Assad and Putin in the way they can..for blocking the ceasefire with extra demands..

Idlib: Rebels shelling #Fuah and #Kafarya now.

Actually part of the rebel problems has been they are to kind....meaning they seriously do not want to hurt the civilian population..Assad...Khamenei and Putin simply do not care.....

Had Assad held centers been subjected to the same amount of shelling's then maybe Assad/Putin/Khamenei might have a different attitude towards civilians....

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:08 PM

Palmyra: #ISIS has killed the #Iran|ian #IRGC commander Hassan Hakbari in #Palmyra.

Ahhh..now the Russian "truth comes out"...they do not want actually any ceasefire and were just going through the motions with Turkey....interesting to see the Turkish response when they realize they were taken advantage of....

Aleppo: #Russia is also against a ceasefire. #Lavrov: "Ceasefire allows rebels to take breath."

Besieged #Aleppo || #Syria
Civilian evacuation postponed awaiting resolution of disputes between Iranian militia & Russian officers

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:18 PM

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Breaking || #Aleppo
5 airstrikes with cluster bombs hit neighbourhoods of eastern Aleppo, plus ground-ground rockets & artillery

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
Regime press publishes he hopes to film the bodies of all the people of Aleppo across the four besieged neighborhoods

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
Besieged #Aleppo || #Militia
Palestinian Liwa Al-Quds Brigade hang Palestinian flag occupying the Umayyad Mosque in Aleppo

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:20 PM

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform #Aleppo || #Syria

#Video of besieged Aleppo as regime & Iranian militia groups violate ceasefire agreement:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RPPQM64rqI&feature=youtu.be#…

Regime militia group vows to burn civilian homes in east Aleppo

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:26 PM

FSA || Besieged E #Aleppo
FSA forces engage in heavy clashes with regime on outskirts of Ithaa & Zabdia, attacks persist from shia militia

Besieged #Aleppo || #WarCrimes
Regime airstrikes on Salaheddine neighborhood in besieged Aleppo, wounding civilians

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Homs || #Militia

Iranian militia Revolutionary Guards announce they will send reinforcements from Afghani Fatamiyoun Brigade to Palmyra

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:27 PM

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
Besieged #Aleppo || #WarCrimes

Reasons for failure to solve disputes:
-Iranians want civilians to leave Kafaria&Fuah
-Regime wants revenge

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:48 PM

Holland summons Russian & Iranian ambassadors to protest Aleppo siege, demands immediate evacuation of civilians. What about rest of world?!

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 02:51 PM

Iran unhappy with former allied in #Palestine
#Hamas shows solidarity with Rebels in #Aleppo #Syria

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 03:00 PM

Remember, there are those who still insist the Assad coalition is not sectarian:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1430ZB#

MFA Russia
✔
@mfa_russia
#Churkin: The hostilities in eastern #Aleppo have ceased, the city is under the control of the Syrian government
http://russiaun.ru/en/news/cm_fscsr#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 03:34 PM

The Daily Beast
✔
@thedailybeast
"This morning 20 women committed suicide in order not to be raped." Do not look away from #Aleppo:
http://thebea.st/2huJoPd

Russia's gov't-sponsored Vesti describes Western objections over the slaughter of civilians in #Aleppo as "helpless rancor."

Aleppo: It's night now and nobody has left besieged Eastern #Aleppo. Airstrikes & artillery shelling continuing. More people were killed.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 03:40 PM

UKRAINE TODAY @uatodaytv
Russian propaganda: #UT has gathered articles, published by major Russian agencies on #Aleppo operation
https://goo.gl/AaNrh1

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 04:06 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 04:18 PM

Russian General Vladimir Savchenko Head of the Centre for Reconciliation who allegedly signed the #Aleppo evacuation and ceasefire deal.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 04:20 PM

Russian State TV Video Shows Russian Special Forces Fighting on the Ground in Syria, Supposedly Killing ISIS
http://www.interpretermag.com/video-shows-russian-special-forces-fighting-on-the-ground-in-syria-supposedly-killing-isis/#15722#

BUT WAIT...they were also videoed firing an ATGM at a truck carrying fleeing civilians....claiming it was a SVBIED.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 05:05 PM

Shelling interrupts TV interview from #Aleppo
http://bbc.in/2hwhHFR

Islamic State continues to tighten the noose around T4, claiming capture of Sharifah village to its west

Children trapped in an orphanage near #Aleppo's front line appeal to be rescued. Unicef also urging evacuation:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1596981523652613&id=353338088016969#
…

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 05:13 PM

Russian parliament passes law allowing for short-term military contracts for action abroad. Ramping up? For what?
http://www.newsru.com/russia/14dec2016/contr.html#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 05:17 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 05:29 PM

Reuters Top News
✔
@Reuters
BREAKING: Syria's Assad says if Trump can genuinely fight terrorism he can become our 'natural ally' - Russian TV

SAYS the man who has ordered the killing of hundreds of thousands and who is currently conducting genocide against unprotected civilians in Aleppo.....

AND Russia is just as complicit in this genocide...war crimes...starvation ......

According to the BBC's live blog on the Aleppo crisis, Western operated drones are capturing data/evidence of war crimes & atrocities.

As #Aleppo civilians were being gunned down in their homes & on the streets, Russia reported there's "jubilation" in the city.

Assad: "Damascus in coordination with Moscow, Tehran to work out plan for Idlib liberation after full liberation of #Aleppo "

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 05:44 PM

Syria Rebels hit #Assad-forces with 2 car bombs west of rebel held #Aleppo city neighborhoods
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.184407&lon=37.148455&z=17&m=b#

Vehicle bomb targeting #Iranian #militia positions in #AlHaj Bridge neighborhood in #Aleppo

BREAKING: Syrian rebel official says rebels have 'begun a military action' in Aleppo to counter government attacks

Syria Rebels regain Hajj main roundabout in #Aleppo city & try to advance into eastern neighborhoods
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.183948&lon=37.147790&z=17&m=b#

BREAKING
#Rebels regain control of the #Alhaj Bridge neighborhood in #Aleppo, besieged and trying to advance toward #AlFardous Residences

BREAKING Dozens of dead and wounded of regime forces after targeted the rebels a big convoy of them near #AlFardous Residences

Six hours ago.....BREAKING
#Step_News reporter : #Russian side tells the #Rebels factions in the city of #Aleppo, we will to stop the bombing

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 05:46 PM

Syria #IS seized air defence base west of #Tiyas T4 & probably lay airbase under complete siege now
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34.548984&lon=37.496681&z=14&m=b#

Syria #IS regain "abandoned Battalion" north of
#Tiyas Airbase T4 after lost it for some hours
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34.576974&lon=37.604098&z=15&m=b#

IS closing on major Assad army airbase east #Homs while most of Assad/Iran militias focus their efforts on slaughtering civilians in Aleppo

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:02 PM

Demand the safe evacuation of people from Aleppo and the urgent deployment of UN monitors to protect civilians

https://www.amnesty.org/en/get-involved/take-action/demand-safe-evacuation-of-people-from-east-aleppo/#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:03 PM

Just reported.....not confirmed as to what the explosion was and or is......

Huge explosion rocks Tartus

CrowBat

12-14-2016, 06:08 PM

REALLY......the superpower Russia cannot control a bunch of militias and the Iranian IRGC....and yet they call themselves a superpower?????

Let's see....a few "friendly fire accidental air strikes on IRGC and Iraqi Shia positions" and that might get their attention...Don't think so: that would be declared 'martyrdom in service of the common higher interest' - and that's perfectly in sense of the IRGC's ideology.

(I know: sounds awful, but that's the way they think, and the way they explained all losses caused by Russian and Assadist bombs so far, too.)

Russia may be losing its leverage over Assad and Iran in Syria
http://read.bi/2gJ7EA6Mrs Bertrand (author) should go back to shooting selfies. Her editor can join her.

And if they didn't know this by now, they better scratch 'Insider' from the title of their paper, too.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:16 PM

One of the Assad regime delegates was "OmarRahmon" had been a rebel group commander in Hama and was fighting against Assad forces.

Copy of the agreements of evacuation yesterday. Signed by Russian officer, Rebels delegate and of Assad regime.

Listof260 - #Assad demands 260 persons of interest are handed over to them or critical #EvacuateAleppo will not happen.
We still have no information if all of 260 list are rebels or mixed rebels & civilians.

"260 persons" list is totally rejected by rebels and ceasefire is ended by #Assad forces and Shiite militias not by rebels

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 06:22 PM

CNN International
✔
@cnni
'Aleppo is being destroyed by the silence of the world'
http://cnn.it/2h0EHvF

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 07:01 PM

Our famous Syrian SEVEN year old tweeter is back up o her account...she and her mother and sister were able to make it to the still defended area...evidently rebels group found them and escorted them the defended area....

Her account is active again.........

Bana Alabed
Verified account
‏@AlabedBana
Sir @MevlutCavusoglu we had hope yesterday, but what's happening now? Please help us now. No more time left. Thank you. - Fatemah #Aleppo

Cavusoglu....replied....."we have heard your cries my daughter and help is coming......"

7yr old @AlabedBana is real. Yet her account receives stomach-churning abuse.
bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/12/14/bana-alabed-verification-using-open-source-information/#

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 07:03 PM

Aleppo: Rebel counter-offensive in besieged Eastern #Aleppo. Reports that rebels advancing in #Fardos district.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.184442&lon=37.147093&z=15&m=b#
…

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 07:28 PM

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
✔
@mfa_russia
#Lavrov urged #USA to use its influence with the armed opposition groups in #Syria that are supported by #Washington
http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2562824#

BUT WAIT.....when the US and Ukraine ask Russia to influence their Ukrainian mercenary proxies Russia claims it cannot and it has limited leverage......

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 07:37 PM

GRU #InfoOp Kots is enraged #Aleppo residents want to evac to their desired destination not "safe territory of Assad".

Kots explicitly accuses survivors of #Aleppo using their kids as human shields to prevent evac to Assad's territory.

Several hundred people, mostly #Syrian refugees on the street in #Dresden protesting against the #Aleppo carnage.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 07:46 PM

Palmyra: It seems that #Tiyas Airbase is under #ISIS siege now.

OUTLAW 09

12-14-2016, 08:12 PM

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
✔
@mfa_russia
#Lavrov: We are still confident that a military solution is not an option for #Syria or any other country
http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2562448#

Azor

12-15-2016, 12:22 AM

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 06:52 AM

I've argued this for some time. Iran is benefiting the most from Russian intervention...

Azor...even I forget at times to back up...take a good look and compare events ongoing in two locations eastern Ukraine....and Syria to compare Russian/Putin actions.

The posting was more along the lines of a rhetorical statement....

WHEN we compare the statements made by the Russian FM in say eastern Ukraine and then compare them to the Russian MoD statements in Syria..meaning yes they are being supported by us BUT we have little influence over them....we see the standard Russian "masking operation hard at work"......

It allows Russia to drive ahead on their main goal in this case the destruction of the FSA instead of their UNGA stated objective of destroying IS and it allows them to say to Ukraine...deal directly with our mercenaries......

Yes Iran is benefitting greatly but they have a rather long term goal of "revolutionary Islam" compliments of Khomeini and want total control over the 3B Muslim Ummah.......and if Russia helps them along that path then so be it...

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 06:59 AM

I had posted extensively on this with video links and photos.....although this comment is a tad off as some Chechen troops have already arrived in Syria........

Update: deployment of Chechen soldiers to Syria suspended after an amateur video showing soldiers getting ready to ship out was leaked.

A group of 12 soldiers dismissed for refusing to ship out to Syria from their base in Chechnya. Sources said they are locals.

Chechen leader Kadyrov whose father fought two wars with Russia and who is closely tied to Putin though...FORGOT in his haste to prove himself to Putin that he is still sitting on a powder keg called an unfinished Chechen War and a Sunni majority...and that his civil society has not totally forgotten the Russian military brutality committed on Chechens....

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:00 AM

Azor

12-15-2016, 07:31 AM

Latvia repeats its call on the UN Security Council to refer Syria’s case to the International Criminal Court:
http://www.mfa.gov.lv/en/news/latest-news/55661-latvia-repeats-its-call-on-the-un-security-council-to-refer-syria-s-case-to-the-international-criminal-court#

Ask yourself WHY this did not come from the US Obama WH as a pressure point on Putin and company?????

Leading from behind. Do you think Riga acted independently? Is it not curious that they are among the four NATO members most likely to enter a conflict with Russia and least able to defend themselves? ;)

Riga is almost inviting Russian hostility...

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:51 AM

Leading from behind. Do you think Riga acted independently? Is it not curious that they are among the four NATO members most likely to enter a conflict with Russia and least able to defend themselves? ;)

Riga is almost inviting Russian hostility...

Azor...this is where we vastly differ.....the Baltics and Poland have probably the singular right to say whatever they want to towards and or about Russia....

1. review the secret attachments to the 1939 Molotov/Ribbentrop Agreement
2. review the deportations conducted by SU in the Baltics and Poland
3. review SU actions during the Warsaw Uprising
4. review the actions taken by Russian right after the Wall fell in the Baltics

THEN tell me they have no rights to critique the West and Russia.....

Trump complains that NATO is not "paying their fair share"...check the massive increase in defense spending by the Baltics and Poland since Crimea and the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine....

WHAT the Baltics and Poland rightly demand is that the US stand by their NATO Article 5 agreement which has been brought into question by the same Trump....

WHY do that?....there is a not so subtle feeling that the US when the chips were down basically walked away from their signed 1994 Budapest Memorandum so why would they adhere to NATO Article 5 when the chips are down...

The interesting point right now is that while ethnic Russians still in the Baltics who did not "go home" after independence while some have curtailed civil rights give absolutely no indication of supporting anything Putin says and or does...why because they have their language...reasonable jobs and living conditions as opposed to those living in Russia....

BTW...some of the best Russian counter info and cyber war work is coming out of the Baltics...but not making it into US MSM....

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:55 AM

Russia's trolling the latest @NBCNews revelation that #Putin personally ordered US election hack, using same language for Aleppo evacuation

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:59 AM

Russian proxies hard at work......

This time DefMin says #Putin personally ordered Russian military 2 organise E #Aleppo evacuation with Syrian forces. 20 buses, 10 ambulances

A new truce has been reached in Aleppo and evacuations are starting

1st bus transporting civilians out of #Aleppo became target of gunfire, two injured. Putin orders Russian troops to escort buses to #Idlib.

Confirmed, ambulances again head back to east Aleppo. Two injured.

Something stronger...come on guardian....even you can fact check better than this...social media called it Sarin....end of story...

Large number of victims in latest Syrian gov't chemical weapon attack suggest something much stronger than chlorine.
http://bit.ly/2hxdvW2

Azor

12-15-2016, 08:04 AM

Azor...even I forget at times to back up...take a good look and compare events ongoing in two locations eastern Ukraine....and Syria to compare Russian/Putin actions.

The posting was more along the lines of a rhetorical statement....

WHEN we compare the statements made by the Russian FM in say eastern Ukraine and then compare them to the Russian MoD statements in Syria..meaning yes they are being supported by us BUT we have little influence over them....we see the standard Russian "masking operation hard at work"......

It allows Russia to drive ahead on their main goal in this case the destruction of the FSA instead of their UNGA stated objective of destroying IS and it allows them to say to Ukraine...deal directly with our mercenaries......

Yes Iran is benefiting greatly but they have a rather long term goal of "revolutionary Islam" compliments of Khomeini and want total control over the 3B Muslim Ummah.......and if Russia helps them along that path then so be it...

You still haven't answered how Russia truly benefits from its Syrian adventure.

The only links between Ukraine and Syria, other than similar Russian tactics and sometimes the same soldiers, and the fact that both interventions were defensive from the Russian perspective...

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:16 AM

Aleppo Dr #Hamza Al-Khatib says 125 Injured people being evacuated today. Full evacuation estimated to last "for several days"

Update:the first group of cars carrying the patients from Sukari area to Amre'a then to Ramosseh where they'll be moved to the rural #Aleppo

Reports several people injured by regime/Hezbollah shooting at ambulances carrying the wounded from #Aleppo

One of the injured is a White Helmets member reportedly

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:23 AM

Unconfirmed out of Turkey....the sudden Russian military rush to get the ceasefire back on track came out of the last Erdogan/Putin phone call when Erdogan was allegedly reported to have simply told Putin...either back on track or we swing the TAF/FSA and send them into Aleppo......along with our AF and artillery....

Ever so suddenly the Russian military applied pressure to their proxies who still do not like what Russia negotiated.......AND who are supplying armed Russian military escorts to the evacuation busses and ambulances.....

You have to believe Putin never thought he would be supplying armed Russian escorts for so called "terrorists" being allowed to leave Aleppo....

YESTERDAY even the Russian FM was against any further ceasefire as it would give "terrorists a chance to breath....

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:25 AM

Demo in Sarajevo in solidarity with #Aleppo.
The Bosnians know everything about genocide.

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:34 AM

Good article from @washingtonpost about @AlabedBana and @bellingcat

In Aleppo’s misinformation war, a 7-year-old girl prompts a fact check
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/12/14/in-aleppos-misinformation-war-a-7-year-old-girl-prompts-a-fact-check/?utm_term=.736167881114

THIS is what good social media open source analysis is all about.....I have been posting bellingcat's analysis work since the downing of MH17 and he has been in the lead for proving to the world in 2013 the use of Sarin gas by Assad....what many have forgotten.....

Under bellingcat influence open source analysis of social media has advanced massively to the point that the US used their work to expose Russian involvement in eastern Ukraine....

BTW......the analysis techniques are being now used to verify fake news......

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:48 AM

Julian Reichelt
✔
@jreichelt
All of the @BILD homepage is Syria now, a landscape of death and destruction, to stand with the people of Aleppo.

Heartbreaking: Call to the world from children Orphanage in besieged part of #Aleppo #Syria .....today over 500 children are in this orphanage
https://youtu.be/uV2DUejHLX8

TEN years ago all leading Western nation states led by the Us signed agreements in the UN to the "Right to Protect" or simply called R2P and yet after stating Rwanda and Srebrenica would never happen again...here it is again Aleppo and the entire West including Obama have proven to each other that they are simply hypocrites....and incapable of anything more than words and more words.......

YET we wonder why populism is rising it's head around the world....there is in the Western world a feeling that politicians are only interested in protecting their retirements and not interested in resolving pressing issues...whether Aleppo or the effects of globalism or immigrants or low income...name the problem and we see not a single solution.....until a pied piper comes along promising the moon and a chicken in every pot which we all know cannot be promised ...yet we follow the pied piper......

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:51 AM

Extraordinary action to #StandWithAleppo: Walk from #Berlin to #Aleppo with @AleppoMarch #Syria.

They are taking the route followed by many Syrian refugees took to Berlin....2000 have indicated they will leave Berlin and more have signaled their intentions along the march route....

Support Aleppo demonstrations in 15 German cities drew over 200K......

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 09:11 AM

You still haven't answered how Russia truly benefits from its Syrian adventure.

The only links between Ukraine and Syria, other than similar Russian tactics and sometimes the same soldiers, and the fact that both interventions were defensive from the Russian perspective...

Azor...you have got to read more......let's see

1. they regain political influence largely lost after 1991 as a major player
2. they gain a foothold in Eygpt...
3. they gain a military basing system for both ground troops...AF and two naval bases to include naval basing agreements in the Med to support their Black Sea fleet
4. they gain the ability to effectively cap the US political sway in the ME
5. in their minds it proves they are equal to the US as a superpower and again an international player
6. places them in a position to deal with Israel and Palestine as a mediator
7. places them along with Iran to influence oil and gas reserves in the coming years as Russian oil/gas production is actually declining
8. great for gaining combat experience...great for gaining deployment and logistics training/experience...great for naval deployments/experience and great for selling Russian weapons....

Do you need more effects ????

The only links between Ukraine and Syria, other than similar Russian tactics and sometimes the same soldiers, and the fact that both interventions were defensive from the Russian perspective....

Let's see so ....same troops and troop units......same non linear doctrine...same info and cyber warfare .....same political warfare directed at US and Obama....BUT not intertwined...come on you can do better....

Defensive in nature....do not think so....Ukraine was independent or so thought the West....and the Ukrainians....and Crimea...well the Russian military had just gotten a 25 year lease for their naval port.....and basically the UAF did not exist so no military threat to Russia and the corruption was equal to anything existing currently in Russia so no threat there.....

BUT what was exactly the true "colored threat"......a civil society standing up and demanding the rule of law/good governance ...a better economic development promised by EU membership......AND visa free travel to the EU WHICH BTW Russia had been wanting also from the EU at the same time .......AND the end of a massive corruption wave....SO if that is viewed as being defensive then maybe the Russians had a point.....

BTW there is a massive brain drain right now among well educated Russians in the 20-35 range who openly state they will never return to Russia due to current conditions....and the country is one year away from economic collapse....with their rainy day funds almost bankrupt...

BUT with a 85B USD private income largely taken out of the missing 5T USD earned in the last ten years in oil sales that went missing ...MAYBE that is what "threatened Putin and his oligarch circle"....

The core Putin argument of NATO membership is just a smoke screen as Putin knew and still knows NATO was never in a position to physically ever attack Russia....but now after two years of rearming and retraining ...NATO is in fact a viable counter to the new Russian army.......RIGTH now the Russian mercenary army in eastern Ukraine has more tanks than five NATO members including such members as Germany, Spain and France....

Missile defense a threat....was a smokescreen as the US has always signaled the abilities to the Russians to ensure they felt that their second strike ICBMs were not being targeted......BUT WAIT they were even asked by NATO to join the MD system but refused....

BUT WAIT...as NATO was signaling their intent to do nothing towards Russian since 1991 the Russians were busy violating the INF and START...and total failed to meet the OSCE disarmament agreements when all other OSCE met their targets......

So I am waiting for "defensive proof"????

.@chrislhayes asks: why does Putin care so much abt Syria? Because he abhors/fears democracy & revolution. Explainer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZHRsic0qmU#

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 09:25 AM

CrowBat

12-15-2016, 11:21 AM

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 01:22 PM

Russian Syrian Express...

Russian Navy's Ropucha class LSTM "TSEZAR KUNIKOV" 158 southbound on the İstanbul en route to Syria for her 10th deployment in 2016 (3:00pm)

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 01:28 PM

Azor....Russian cannot even hold to their own agreements.......

Jazeera now reporting 1 person killed and 4 injured in #Ramousseh Ambulance shooting incident
Activists accusing #Hezbollah of foiling deal

CONFIRMED
Senior opposition figure confirms ambulances heading back to E. #Aleppo: "Regime scuttled the evacuation of 1st Batch of injured

@SyriaCivilDef rescuer: "They shot at us twice, but we kept trying. 3rd time, ambulance driver got shot+colleague+civies. all serious cond"

WHERE were those Putin stated Russian guards??????

Footage from live @mod_russia feed of #Ramouseh Crossing shows @ICRC_sy vehicles, @SARC_Aleppo personnel, but little else going on

Update #Aleppo evacuation:
No one has left so far.
Random shooting from regime's militants towards the injuries cars led to some injuries!

Russia shouts to the world in front of the UNSC....the fighting has stopped in eastern Aleppo and we have a ceasefire.....BUT then they cannot even hold to their own ceasefire and cannot seem to control their very own proxies......

Asaad Hanna
✔
@AsaadHannaa
#breaking : the Syrian Airforces attacked the square arround the waiting place for the evacuated ppl, no info about injured

THIS is highly interesting as the agreement covered also fighters and their families....almost as if the Russians are repeatedly the killing zone of the Ukrainian armed forces when they were surrounded by the Russian army in 2014 and Russian army promised a free corridor to exit on and then were slaughtered as they attempted to exit ....

Somehow there is a solid feeling that in fact Russia agrees with Assad and Iran on how to deal with the civilians and fighters inside eastern Aleppo.....AND Russia is simply using her proxies excuses to cover up their own actions

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 01:32 PM

Ah...even the father of Russian non linear warfare cannot seem to tell the truth these days......Russia has basically failed to attack either by air strikes and or ground attacks IS anywhere in Syria....

MUST be for internal Russian propaganda to prove that they are fighting Islamic terrorism in Syria instead of being blamed for war crimes and killing innocent civilians...

TASS: Over 2,000 militants from Russia and CIS countries killed this year in Syria - Gerasimov.

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 01:40 PM

Source from #Assad forces confirmed that Shiite militias got guarantee from #Turkey about wounded evacuation from Kafraya and Foa.

THIS is not correct and is Assad disinformation and trying to connect the Shia withdrawal to rebel withdrawals.....

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 01:44 PM

BREAKING First Aleppo evacuees reach rebel territory: doctor, monitor

Syrian official: 951 people left eastern Aleppo in first convoy
http://reut.rs/2hxoiCx

East Aleppo was one of 40 besieged communities – now others fear a similar fate – @lcmporter reports on Madaya –
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/aleppo-syria-besieged-towns-161214060522596.html#
…

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 02:59 PM

Russian Syrian Express...

Russian Navy's Ropucha class LSTM "TSEZAR KUNIKOV" 158 southbound on the İstanbul en route to Syria for her 10th deployment in 2016 (3:00pm)

Alexandr Tkachenko carries GAZ3380 Sadko 4x4 & ZIL trucks + Ural fuel trucks & 2 UAZ

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 03:01 PM

Syria 1100 people deported from #Aleppo today. Thousands follow next days. In 2017 city is ethnic cleansed from Sunni arabs.

WOW...now Israel wakes up.....
The fall of Aleppo to pro-Assad forces has heightened alarm in Israel
http://read.bi/2h4jctG

The Trump cabinet wants to stop Iran. So what do they propose to do about Aleppo, which Iran just conquered?
http://thebea.st/2h2XQx5

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 03:07 PM

Palmyra: #ISIS has killed 2 militiamen of the #Iran|ian #Fatemiyoun Brigade in #Palmyra.

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 03:09 PM

Russia live video feed from Aleppo

Russian defense ministry shows live drone footage of what it says is a column of fighters leaving Aleppo.

http://syria.mil.ru/syria/livecam.htm#

On the ground observers stated...not fighters but civilians.....Russian propaganda is having to show some kind of "victory over terrorists" as a way to explain why "terrorists are leaving with their families"....

BTW not a single statement that they have massively defeated IS.....which is why they claimed they went into Syria in the first place.....

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 05:20 PM

As #Aleppo falls, #ISIS will reap the rewards - thanks to #Russia.
http://www.rferl.org/a/islamic-state-main-beneficiary-russian-aleppo-campaign/28178425.html#

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 05:37 PM

ATTENTION PMC Wagner mercs in #Ukraine and #Syria on Sky News documentary.
https://youtu.be/HvW3OBJDVS8

The name "Vagner Group" (группа Вагнера) is derived fr the group leader Вагнер. Officially it's called "ОСМ" (OSM).

WSJ reports in Oct 2015 nine #Russian private army a.k.a. Вагнер (#Blackwaters) GIs killed in #Syria after shelling.

All pay is handed over to PMC Wagner subordinates ONLY after accomplishing business mission. Any reporting of misbehaving rewarded w bonus.

PMC Wagner pay ranges fr LVL1 60K RUB (€780) to LVL5 240K RUB (€3110). LVL5 is direct combat assignments. Company cmndr 350K RUB (€4550)

Depending on severity of WIA PMC Wagner pays 50K - 300K RUB (€650 - €3900). In case of KIA 3M RUB (€39000). Recovering body is not included.

Per different sourced fr #Russia the group has around 1000 strong. Also participated in #Ukraine campaign of 2014 fighting among terrorists.

Unavoidable FUBAR in every battle is the fact Assad/SSA forces #### up everything. Always. Constantly.
http://rus.err.ee/v/foreign/96247ed9-7fac-487a-af78-a99c105c209c/istoriya-taynykh-rossiyskikh-naemnikov-ili-gruppa-vagnera-v-sirii#…

Oleg, Wagner merc, can't stand Assad / opposition as for him they are indistinguishable. Curses God for such allies.

Wagner merc in #Syria were used like firefighters to patch holes in front line where FUBAR was the greatest.

Per Wagner merc Oleg, Assad army soldiers are untrained, unmotivated, unwilling to fight, can't shoot. Have no habit to clean weapons.

PMC Wagner's one of #Palmyra's fight loss was 19 WIA, 1 KIA due to SAA inactivity, Assad artillery shelling hight they were capturing.

For this SAA #Palmyra FUBAR Wagner's mercs hate to this day them for everything Assads are.

After fall of #Palmyra such memes have a reason.

CRITICAL comment......
Russian Civil War in #Syria: Russian Army against 35% equipped by Russian Army ISIS.
https://twitter.com/odhcpd/status/808373095719464960#…

Russia has no control over #Palmyra. Any such claim is their #fakenews.
https://twitter.com/cbsMcCormick/status/809410524907761664#…

Fleeing #Russian Army left in #Palmyra 1,5 battalion worth MBTs to ISIS.

US Defense official: ISIS seized three SA3C surface-to-air missile batteries when it took Palmyra. Russia now claims to have stabilized area

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 05:40 PM

The fall of Aleppo deals a humiliating blow to years of Turkish policy in Syria
http://read.bi/2h4KIr0

Aleppo: Ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs in #Aleppo

These deportations: Daraya, Khan Al Sheikh, Al Tal, Aleppo resembles mass deportation of Crimean Tatars on 18 May 1944

Aleppo evacuations 'are too little, too late' for besieged civilians, says aid group
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2016-12-15/first-convoy-of-buses-leaves-rebel-held-aleppo-as-evacuations-begin/#

.

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 06:25 PM

ATTENTION PMC Wagner mercs in #Ukraine and #Syria on Sky News documentary.
https://youtu.be/HvW3OBJDVS8

Fun fact - in #Hama Assad has armour repair factory. Up until PMC Wagner arrival it produced 2 tanks a month. After 30 tanks a month.

After PMC Wagner departure the production rate fell to normal - 2 tanks a month.

In 2015 PMC Wagner had 600 strong. By 2016 Spring 1200 strong.

By Autumn 2015 PMC Wagner had 15 KIA. Half of them in one day - ammo cache blew up in tent camp. 2016 Winter-Spring losses higher, no info.

[B]Moscow Scrambling to Fill Ranks of Its Forces in Syria and Elsewhere
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/12/moscow-scrambling-to-fill-ranks-of-its.html#

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:12 PM

An Iraqi satellite channel, affiliated to Iran-funded Shia militia Harakat al-Nujaba, broadcasts a song saying: #Aleppo is Shia

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:18 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:22 PM

The U.S. will strike Islamic State in Palmyra if Russian and Syrian government forces don't, Gen. Townsend says

Wait? ... I mean ... Wait!
We strike #ISIS so #AssadPutin can recapture areas they withdrew troops and jets from to destroy #Aleppo now?!?!

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:30 PM

Hama: Rebels shelling #Hama Military Airport with 40 Grad rockets today.

Gaza: #Hamas arrested Hesham Salem, head of Al-Sabirin Movement (pro-#Iran militia), for his support of Shia militias in #Aleppo.

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 07:58 PM

UNITAR Picture of destruction in #Aleppo, displayed by Demistura - Red areas are totally destroyed, yellow, substantially destroyed

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria tells journalists: 'History is being made in Aleppo'

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:02 PM

Rus calendar with "Syrian students" appears made by the same pro-Kremlin youth group that shot anti-Ukraine vids w/ fake "Russian students".

Syrian women in Moscow pose in propaganda calendar dedicated to Russian soldiers fighting in their homeland:
http://fromsyriawithlove.ru

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 08:13 PM

Secretary of State Kerry says U.S. seeking immediate, verifiable, durable cessation of hostilities in Aleppo.
http://reut.rs/2hApKS3

NOT exactly sure what he actually means as the Turks have signaled the third evacuation convoy has left Aleppo and when all are out...then what is there to negotiate........

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 09:30 PM

Eliot Higgins
✔
@EliotHiggins
Eva Bartlett wrongly claims Al Quds hospital wasn't bombed, here I explain how that denial was @mod_russia deception
https://medium.com/@DFRLab/lie-in-the-sky-224186b6e98c#.dvm2cgybg#

OUTLAW 09

12-15-2016, 09:34 PM

Night pictures of Aleppo evacuation

Russian MoD live video link still carrying live video of the ongoing evacuations....

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 09:38 AM

Same Iranian...Hezbollah and Assad games this morning.......

Syria #AleppoDeportation: Gunfire at entry point (Ramousah RB) & also at
transfer point (al-Assad interchange)

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 03:01 PM

Aleppo: Reports that Jabhat Fatah al-Sham rebels have left Eastern #Aleppo. The best fighters have left and 50.000 civilians are trapped.

US cleans up Russian equipment abandoned when the Russian literally fled Palmyra.....

Palmyra: for 1st time US-led Coalition struck intensively #ISIS around city yesterday. Not less than 22 targets, incl. 14 tanks, taken out.

Putin's goal appears to be to overturn the U.S.-created international order, even if this means chaos: My new column
http://wapo.st/2hzVj0S

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 03:12 PM

FIRST we see Russian spetsnaz troops being used to defeat the UAF Cyborgs inside the Donetsk Airport after they had held out all attacks for literally months and in the end using CWs on them....

THEN we see the Russian spetsnaz being used to defeat the UAF in Debaltseve after the UAF defeated virtually all mercenary attacks.....

NOW we see them in Aleppo.....

Russian special forces play key, secretive role in Syrian offensive to retake Aleppo
http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-special-forces-seen-as-key-to-aleppo-victory-1481884200#

Video of the 16th Spetsnaz Brigade fighting in Aleppo has been posted already...one section shows them using an ATGM against a truck carrying civilians CLAIMING on national Russian media it was a terrorist SVBIED......

The 16th has fought in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2015....

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 03:27 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 05:05 PM

Overview of Open Source Monitoring of Makeshift Oil Sites in Deir Ez-Zor, Syria via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/12/14/recent-decrease-oil-production-syria-overview-open-source-monitoring-makeshift-oil-sites-deir-ez-zor/#

On the murky topic of Russia's mercenaries, including notorious Dmitry "Vagner" Utkin, & role in #Ukraine & #Syria.
http://www.rferl.org/a/28180321.html

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 05:25 PM

"Bloggers aren't civilians."

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 05:30 PM

Assad army stopped a convoy, abused the civilians, injuring 6 inc @SyriaCivilDef volunteer, killed 4, then returned remaining to #Aleppo.

RUSSIA does nothing and yet claims it is their own negotiated ceasefire and the WEST utters not a single word.......

Would-Be Evacuees Report Regime Executed 4 People Before Sending Convoy Back; Russia Denies Anything Happened
http://www.interpretermag.com/syria-december-16-2016/#15754#

Aleppo: Not 1 single civilian has left Eastern #Aleppo today. More people were killed, wounded, kidnapped, tortured and robbed.

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 05:53 PM

According to the Russian Insider Assad has just 25.000 soldiers of SAA, rest NDF, Tiger Forces, pro-Iranian militias etc.

According to American pro rebel reporter Bilal Abdul Kareem there are still a huge number of fighters and civilians trapped in #Aleppo.

SAMS
✔
@sams_usa
Before leaving #Aleppo, SAMS medical staff show their gratitude for the outpouring of support they have received from ppl around the world.

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 05:59 PM

Total number of #Russia's #military servicemen killed in #Syria is now 24:

http://www.rbc.ru/politics/16/12/2016/5853dbca9a79475ab3aaed26#

"How Many #Russia|n Soldiers Have Died in #Syria?"by @michaeldweiss:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016

Estimated number of Russian contractors....actual military and civilian mercenaries killed in eastern Ukraine now at 9000

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 06:08 PM

Palmyra: Heavy fighting & airstrikes ongoing at #Tiyas Airbase. The Airbase is surrounded by #ISIS from north, east and south.

THIS young social media tweeter has still not made it out of Aleppo with her mother and sister....her father has been killed.....Assadists are searching for her and her mother.....

Bana Alabed
✔
@AlabedBana
Please save us now. - Bana #Aleppo

OUTLAW 09

12-16-2016, 06:49 PM

At least 2,700 kids among those evacuated from #Aleppo over past 24 hours - UN
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38339300#

Bilal Abdul Kareem @BilalKareem
Russia is saying the evacuation in E. Aleppo is complete. This isn't true. Thousands are trapped here with me.

In east Aleppo tonight, people are terrified to leave even under an ICRC-monitored evacuation. But if they stay, death is likely.

Azor

12-17-2016, 12:10 AM

…Azor...this is where we vastly differ...the Baltics and Poland have probably the singular right to say whatever they want to towards and or about Russia...

As would I. I have close family that died in Katyn, although most deaths at the hands of the Russians were in the Komi Republic or Siberia.

…THEN tell me they have no rights to critique the West and Russia...Trump complains that NATO is not "paying their fair share"...check the massive increase in defense spending by the Baltics and Poland since Crimea and the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine...WHAT the Baltics and Poland rightly demand is that the US stand by their NATO Article 5 agreement which has been brought into question by the same Trump...

I can guarantee you that Riga was not acting independently. If Washington called for the UNSC to refer the Syrian file to the ICC, there would be countermeasures relating to American operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia and Yemen. Riga is tiny and unobtrusive with no history of aggression, war crimes or inflicting of collateral damage since independence. It was the perfect cipher.

You are conflating the issue of the ICC referral with NATO.

Trump is correct that most NATO members do not contribute sufficiently for collective defense (2% of GDP) and rely upon extended US deterrence, both conventional and nuclear. In fact, the NATO members most likely to experience a conflict with Russia – Latvia, Norway, Canada, Denmark – are among the lowest spenders*. Clearly, Latvia spending 2% of GDP would not move the needle as far as the alliance’s overall strength is concerned, but it would be a demonstration of commitment. Since independence, Latvia’s defense expenditures have never met or exceeded 2% of GDP. If all member states committed to the 2% minimum, and spent it on high-end capabilities, it would improve their economies as well as their deterrence.

Poland is an outlier and is probably in a superior position to assist the Baltic republics than Germany is, given the latter’s issues with readiness and deployment.

The Baltics should probably be spending 5% or more of GDP on defense, which is what Israel does.

NATO’s Article 5 does not guarantee that every NATO member will respond to an armed attack on a member with military force. According to the Treaty:

With the invocation of Article 5, Allies can provide any form of assistance they deem necessary to respond to a situation. This is an individual obligation on each Ally and each Ally is responsible for determining what it deems necessary in the particular circumstances.

This assistance is taken forward in concert with other Allies. It is not necessarily military and depends on the material resources of each country. It is therefore left to the judgment of each individual member country to determine how it will contribute. Each country will consult with the other members, bearing in mind that the ultimate aim is to “to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area”.

At the drafting of Article 5 in the late 1940s, there was consensus on the principle of mutual assistance, but fundamental disagreement on the modalities of implementing this commitment. The European participants wanted to ensure that the United States would automatically come to their assistance should one of the signatories come under attack; the United States did not want to make such a pledge and obtained that this be reflected in the wording of Article 5.

*Why do I include Canada, Denmark and Norway, before Poland, Estonia or Lithuania?

Estonia and Lithuania are more difficult to invade than Latvia due to a lack of highways and deep-water port facilities, as well as marshes
Canada, Denmark and Norway all have territorial disagreements with Russia in the Arctic, over areas that are uninhabited, and a bloodless Russian annexation would be more palatable to the international community than a bloody fight for Vilnius or Talinn
Poland does not have a significant Russian minority or territorial disputes with Russia, and Russia would be facing a massive insurgency if it was able to subdue her armed forces

…WHY do that?....there is a not so subtle feeling that the US when the chips were down basically walked away from their signed 1994 Budapest Memorandum so why would they adhere to NATO Article 5 when the chips are down...

You are comparing a collective defense treaty ratified by the US Senate with an executive agreement that does not have any provision for military action?

The interesting point right now is that while ethnic Russians still in the Baltics who did not "go home" after independence while some have curtailed civil rights give absolutely no indication of supporting anything Putin says and or does...why because they have their language...reasonable jobs and living conditions as opposed to those living in Russia...

Yet they are treated as colonists to a degree, legally and culturally. Putin will be sure to try to foment unrest there, including by supporting ethnic nationalist politicians from the non-Russian majority.

Azor

12-17-2016, 01:09 AM

Azor...you have got to read more...let's see…

Thanks for the advice. I read a great deal, thank you.

1. they regain political influence largely lost after 1991 as a major player
2. they gain a foothold in Eygpt...
3. they gain a military basing system for both ground troops...AF and two naval bases to include naval basing agreements in the Med to support their Black Sea fleet
4. they gain the ability to effectively cap the US political sway in the ME
5. in their minds it proves they are equal to the US as a superpower and again an international player
6. places them in a position to deal with Israel and Palestine as a mediator
7. places them along with Iran to influence oil and gas reserves in the coming years as Russian oil/gas production is actually declining
8. great for gaining combat experience...great for gaining deployment and logistics training/experience...great for naval deployments/experience and great for selling Russian weapons...

RE:

Influence over whom? Syria is Iran’s client

Not a foothold comparable to the American one during the Mubarak era. Russian intervention in Syria was not required for this; it was the consequence of Obama’s refusal to support Mubarak and then Sisi

To what end? Russia is still incapable of power projection far beyond its borders and if the Russian military decides to protect Syria, Lebanon and Iran from regime change, it will overextend itself

If the United States had “sway”, then why did Hussein, Assad, Khamenei, Al-Baghdadi and Morsi not take it seriously? Ironically, Qaddafi did in 2003…

The international community considers Russia a major power and a spoiler, but not an equal to the United States

I doubt it. Israel’s continued strikes on Hezbollah targets in Syria is indicative of how seriously Tel Aviv takes Moscow

This was the case prior to the Syrian Civil War, with Russian, Iranian and Syrian cooperation on pipelines, etc.

True.

I agree that Russia gains some minor benefits from participating in the conflict, not unlike how various NATO countries will take part in US-led operations. Of course, these benefits are lost if the intervention goes badly.

However, the prime beneficiary is Iran. Iran’s core interests are at stake in Syria, not Russia’s.

Defensive in nature....do not think so....Ukraine was independent or so thought the West....and the Ukrainians....and Crimea...well the Russian military had just gotten a 25 year lease for their naval port.....and basically the UAF did not exist so no military threat to Russia and the corruption was equal to anything existing currently in Russia so no threat there.....

BUT what was exactly the true "colored threat"......a civil society standing up and demanding the rule of law/good governance ...a better economic development promised by EU membership......AND visa free travel to the EU WHICH BTW Russia had been wanting also from the EU at the same time .......AND the end of a massive corruption wave....SO if that is viewed as being defensive then maybe the Russians had a point...

Obviously Putin did not consider Ukraine to be independent. He regarded it as a Russian protectorate, not unlike Belarus.

I also believe that his decision to invade Ukraine was hasty, and that he could have waited. Certainly, the Ukrainians were in no position to drive the Russians out of Crimea or seal the eastern border.

However, if viewed from the perspective of EU-EAEU conflict, then the invasion of Ukraine was conducted to deny all of Ukraine to Brussels and to signal Moscow’s displeasure. Following the pattern in Georgia, Russia has been careful to only permanently deploy forces where they have strong support from the local population, which is no doubt why Crimea was annexed but not Donbas.

The core Putin argument of NATO membership is just a smoke screen as Putin knew and still knows NATO was never in a position to physically ever attack Russia....but now after two years of rearming and retraining ...NATO is in fact a viable counter to the new Russian army.......RIGTH now the Russian mercenary army in eastern Ukraine has more tanks than five NATO members including such members as Germany, Spain and France....

Missile defense a threat....was a smokescreen as the US has always signaled the abilities to the Russians to ensure they felt that their second strike ICBMs were not being targeted...BUT WAIT they were even asked by NATO to join the MD system but refused....

BUT WAIT...as NATO was signaling their intent to do nothing towards Russian since 1991 the Russians were busy violating the INF and START...and total failed to meet the OSCE disarmament agreements when all other OSCE met their targets...So I am waiting for "defensive proof"

I do believe that Putin had a point about NATO BMD in East-Central Europe. With feasible upgrades, the ABMs could pose a threat to one or more of Russia’s SSBN bastions. There were elements in the Bush administration who wanted to restart SDI and expand the mission of the MDA, and Bush’s withdrawal from the ABM Treaty was ill-advised.

The early CFET violations pertained to obsolete tanks and artillery in poor condition. However, the annexation of Crimea and increased military deployments there have made me favor NATO abrogating the CFET and deploying permanent forces to Poland, Romania and the Baltic republics.

As for the INF Treaty, it would give the United States far more options in the Western Pacific if it withdrew. I don’t see how Russia will adhere to it if China continues to build up its ballistic missile arsenal.

The Russians are aggressive and can’t be trusted. But they should also be properly understood in order to maintain non-adversarial relations.

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 06:09 AM

Thanks for the advice. I read a great deal, thank you.

RE:

Influence over whom? Syria is Iran’s client

Not a foothold comparable to the American one during the Mubarak era. Russian intervention in Syria was not required for this; it was the consequence of Obama’s refusal to support Mubarak and then Sisi

To what end? Russia is still incapable of power projection far beyond its borders and if the Russian military decides to protect Syria, Lebanon and Iran from regime change, it will overextend itself

If the United States had “sway”, then why did Hussein, Assad, Khamenei, Al-Baghdadi and Morsi not take it seriously? Ironically, Qaddafi did in 2003…

The international community considers Russia a major power and a spoiler, but not an equal to the United States

I doubt it. Israel’s continued strikes on Hezbollah targets in Syria is indicative of how seriously Tel Aviv takes Moscow

This was the case prior to the Syrian Civil War, with Russian, Iranian and Syrian cooperation on pipelines, etc.

True.

I agree that Russia gains some minor benefits from participating in the conflict, not unlike how various NATO countries will take part in US-led operations. Of course, these benefits are lost if the intervention goes badly.

However, the prime beneficiary is Iran. Iran’s core interests are at stake in Syria, not Russia’s.

Obviously Putin did not consider Ukraine to be independent. He regarded it as a Russian protectorate, not unlike Belarus.

I also believe that his decision to invade Ukraine was hasty, and that he could have waited. Certainly, the Ukrainians were in no position to drive the Russians out of Crimea or seal the eastern border.

However, if viewed from the perspective of EU-EAEU conflict, then the invasion of Ukraine was conducted to deny all of Ukraine to Brussels and to signal Moscow’s displeasure. Following the pattern in Georgia, Russia has been careful to only permanently deploy forces where they have strong support from the local population, which is no doubt why Crimea was annexed but not Donbas.

I do believe that Putin had a point about NATO BMD in East-Central Europe. With feasible upgrades, the ABMs could pose a threat to one or more of Russia’s SSBN bastions. There were elements in the Bush administration who wanted to restart SDI and expand the mission of the MDA, and Bush’s withdrawal from the ABM Treaty was ill-advised.

The early CFET violations pertained to obsolete tanks and artillery in poor condition. However, the annexation of Crimea and increased military deployments there have made me favor NATO abrogating the CFET and deploying permanent forces to Poland, Romania and the Baltic republics.

As for the INF Treaty, it would give the United States far more options in the Western Pacific if it withdrew. I don’t see how Russia will adhere to it if China continues to build up its ballistic missile arsenal.

The Russians are aggressive and can’t be trusted. But they should also be properly understood in order to maintain non-adversarial relations.

You are getting way off the Syrian thread...just one response....

The initial NATO and US talks with Russia over BMD did in fact include the Russian potential for joining in but Putin deemed otherwise..why because then Russian propaganda would/could not bash NATO.....

All parameters of the BMD did in fact get provided to the Russians...to argue anything else is a waste of time....

Russia was specifically provided data that fully and completely covered the fact that the Russian ICBM second strike ability was not in the least hampered.

The key that you miss on the BMD debate here is THADD....had THADD been stationed along with the BMD...THEN and only THEN would Russia have an argument to make....

Yes you read but the wrong things.....go back to the 1980's Soviet arguments about the US cruise missile stationing under Reagan in reference to the Soviet mobile SS22s being moved into central Europe...you will notice the same Russian arguments then and now....and it has not stopped the Russian forward basing of their tactical nuke ability...WHICH actually BMD does counter...AND that is the rub for Putin...his tactical nuke ability being flatly negated.....

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 06:12 AM

Aleppo was destroyed by a savage coalition led and protected by #Russia"-while we stood by & allowed it to happen.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/aleppos-fall-is-obamas-failure/2016/12/15/5af72640-c30f-11e6-9a51-cd56ea1c2bb7_story.html?utm_term=.634b798c06d8#
…

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 09:30 AM

THIRD so called ceasefire.....Russia...Hezbollah and IRGC-QF is now playing games to avoid the international community placing sanctions on them.....

Syria Residents of remaining rebel #Aleppo neigborhoods now used by #Assad & #Russia as long term hostages
to blackmail opposition

This shows detention of civilians by Shia militia: note water Tower right edge - same tower in my photo. Same pylons. Corroborates location

Civilians were taken off of the last convoy ...basically robbed...beaten and some led away...

TYPICAL well planned Russian ceasefire hard at work....

NOTICE Russia tends to avoid talking about the ture ground reality in Aleppo.....

Russian Mission UN
✔
@RussiaUN
#Churkin: #Russia continues to make all possible efforts to order to de-escalate tensions & solve most acute humanitarian problems in #Syria

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 09:33 AM

Oh....really could have fooled me.....

BUT eliminating IS...in fact Russia has become in Syria the largest weapons provider to IS...

Russian Mission UN
✔
@RussiaUN
#Churkin: #Russia is not trying to obtain any political dividends from instability in MENA, we aim at eliminating ISIS & other terr. groups

CrowBat

12-17-2016, 10:43 AM

Quite 'confusing' four days, must say. Though, given all the lies thrown up by Russians, no surprise at all...

First first things first...

An Update for 12 December: Amaq claimed another SyAAF jet shot down (https://twitter.com/RamiAILoIah/status/808322157331775488) over T-4, plus three jets and/or helicopters destroyed on the ground (https://twitter.com/RamiAILoIah/status/808327780001792000). This should have happened during the first 'official' big assault on Tiyas AB.

13 December
Not a single take-off was reported before 13.50hrs local time, when one Su-22 launched from Shayrat AB in northern direction (i.e. not in direction of Palmyra). Probable reason was bad weather, but also sheer exhaustion after all the flying of the last few days.

Considering Daesh's siege of T-4, and reported 'evacuation' of aircraft from there, it was interesting to see a single Su-24 took off from Tiyas AB, around 14.23hrs local time, and another at 14.50hrs. All flying then ceased around 16.00hrs local time, and no further take-offs were reported for the next five hours.

Russians launched few additional strikes during the night, including one at 21.50hrs, and three between 23.45 and 23.48.

Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 0
L-39: 0
MiG-21: 0
MiG-23: 1
Su-22: 5
Su-24: 2

UAV: 0

VKS: 5
V-MF: 0
helicopters: 0

***********

14 December
The day began with a single Russian helicopter reported over Western Idlib around 00.22hrs, followed by a take-off of a single Russian fighter-bomber from Hmemmem AB, a minute later. Further take-offs from Hmemmem AB were reported at 01.09, 01.53, 02.03, 02.06, 02.10, 02.11, 02.19, and 03.45hrs local time indicating quite vivid Russian activty. starting at 02.31hrs local time (https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/808982766360596481), most of these seem to have targeted Eastern Aleppo (https://twitter.com/24Aleppo/status/808985353604448256), once again denying announcements by Keystone Cops that they ceased bombing Aleppo in October. Indeed, one of these air strikes seems to have hit IRGC positions in Rashideen District (https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/809014175775199232) of Aleppo.

Around 02.24, one SyAAF Su-24 was launched from Tiyas AB and this turned in 'north-eastern direction' after take-off, indicating possible mission against Daesh in Palmyra area. Another did the same around 03.54hrs.

There was no SyAAF reaction to a double SVBIED attack - followed by assaults from three sides (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/809783014821625856) - on Tiyas AB, reported by Amaq around the noon that day (can't find the source any more, sorry), but during the day photos appeared of the SyAAF Mi-25 '2808' at Tiyas (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/809421461786161152).

Weather seems to have stopped all activity during the day, until 16.03hrs, when a single 'Russian' aircraft was reported while approaching Khan Touman. Whether this was a weather-recce sortie or an air strike, remains unclear.

At 18.33, a single Su-24 was launched from Shayrat AB, followed by another - but from Tiyas - at 18.54hrs. Both flew in north-eastern direction. Meanwhile, Russians launched one fighter-jet from Hmemmem AB, at 18.54, and one L-39 was reported as airborne at 18.54 east of Aleppo. Four Russian fighter-jets were launched from Hmemmem AB between 20.31 and 20.32hrs, another at 21.15, and one at 22.11hrs. Two L-39s were active in Aleppo area too that evening, one reportedly taking off from Kweres at 22.39, another at 23.03hrs.

Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 0
L-39: 3
MiG-21: 0
MiG-23: 0
Su-22: 0
Su-24: 4

UAV: 0

VKS: 17
V-MF: 0
helicopters: 1

***********

15 December
The day began with a single Su-24 taking-off from Tiyas AB around 00.15hrs. While it's unclear what was bombed by it, two L-39s that took off from Hama AB at 00.41 and 00.51 were active in Khan Sheikhoun area (southern Idlib). A single Russian fighter-bomber took off from Hmemmem AB at 02.20hrs.

Once the weather cleared sufficiently, both the SyAAF and the VKS began launching more strikes around 09.32hrs: the SyAAF sortie in question included a single Su-24 from Tiyas AB. Two minutes later, even a single UAV was observed over Western Idlib. Four Su-22s launched from Shayrat by 10.20hrs - all going in north-eastern or eastern direction - i.e. probably against Daesh in Palmyra area.

Much more activity was reported starting from 11.00hrs, including two MiG-23s and two Su-22s from Shayrat, helicopters from Hama, UAVs over Idlib Governorate, two take-offs from Hmemmem and two high-flying Russians over Western Idlib (possibly indicating sorties from Kuznetsov). Even a 'reconnaissance' aircraft was reported overflying Khan Sheikhoun in eastern direction, around 11.36hrs.

Two Su-24s launched from Tiyas AB (indicating the base was NOT evacuated) at 13.04 and 13.05, both flying away in north-eastern direction, and Hama AB launched a single MiG-21 around 13.35hrs. Later during the day, FSyA rocketed Hama AB with BM-21s (https://twitter.com/AlnasarArmy/status/809408066491916288), at least temporarily stopping operations from there.

Through all of this time, sporadic activity of Russian fighter-jets was reported from Ma'arat an-Nauman area. More Su-22s and few MiG-23s took off from Shayrat after 14.00hrs, and a single Su-24 from Tiyas at 14.27hrs. Curiously, though all of this time - and just like in the last few days - no helicopter activity was reported from this area at all.

All SyAAF activity ceased around 14.45, and Russians became active around 15.15hrs instead, launching single air strikes from Hmemmem AB - mostly in direction of Jishr ash-Shughour or further north-east (i.e. well away from direction of Palmyra).

Two Su-24s that launched from Shayrat AB at 15.43 and 15.58 flew in direction of Aleppo, i.e. Khan Touman. Four others, launched at 16.02 and 16.03, bombed targets in Idlib area. Two more followed at 17.55 and 18.13, and also flew in northern, not in eastern direction: seems they have bombed the evacuation route (https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/status/809392414905475072) agreed between Russians and Turks, while two others (https://twitter.com/EnasN_/status/809010747510583296) deployed reported CBUs (https://twitter.com/ZouhirAlShimale/status/809015539163168768) on the insurgent-held pocket in Eastern Aleppo - both of which is in violation of the cease-fire and evacuation agreement.

If truth, such reports would be interesting also because the SyAAF didn't drop any kind of CBUs since years.

Gauging by number of Su-24-take-offs from Shayrat, it seems that most of Su-24s launched from Tiyas in the last few days were 'evacuated' to this air base. Nevertheless, two Su-24-take-offs were reported from T-4 at 19.28 and 19.46hrs.

L-39s from Kweres AB became active around 18.34, and targeted Eastern Aleppo and Latamina with a total of five air strikes flown by 19.00hrs. Another took-off around 20.04hrs.

Russians continued their operations with a total of six air strikes launched from Hmemmem AB between 20.53hrs and 21.27, while another L-39 took off from Hama around 21.29 to attack targets in Khan Sheikhoun area. Up to four Russian air strikes hit Khan Touman area round 21.42hrs: it is possible that the aircraft in question came from Kuznetsov.

A single Su-24 took off from Tiyas at 22.44hrs, another from Shayrat at 22.54hrs, while another series of VKS take-offs from Hmemmem followed between 22.50hrs and 23.41hrs. Most of these have hit the Jishr ash-Shughour (https://twitter.com/Paradoxy13/status/809673118713253889) area, before midnight.

Totals
SyAAF
helicopters: 1
L-39: 6
MiG-21: 1
MiG-23: 9
Su-22: 13
Su-24: 14

UAV: 2

VKS: 35
V-MF: 3 (possible)
helicopters: 4
recce: 1

Additionally, a single IRIAF C-130 dropped supplies over Fouh/Kefraya (https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/809334434201800704).

CrowBat

12-17-2016, 10:43 AM

16 December
Flying activity began with six take-offs from Hmemmem AB between 02.03 and 02.23. A single UAV was noted around the same time over western Idlib. Another fighter-jet launched at 04.25hrs. All went in north-eastern direction, mostly towards Khan Touman.

Another air strike at Khan Touman was recorded at 07.49hrs, and at least four hit western Aleppo between 08.59 and 09.21 - the latter possibly launched from Kuznetsov (since no take-offs from Hmemmem AB were reported before 10.34hrs). While absolutely no activity by the SyAAF was recorded all of the night and morning, Russians then ceased flying too. Guess, the weather worsened again.

Five new take-offs from Hmemmem AB were reported only between 14.07 and 14.23hrs, another three between 15.05 and 15.26hrs. Most of these seem to have targeted various places west and south of Aleppo. At least two of air strikes in question have targeted two villages south of Aleppo (https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/809698146335002624) with CBUs.

Khan Touman area was hit again by four air strikes between 19.45 and 20.09hrs, while the last three take-offs were recorded between 20.30 and 21.04 and seem to have targeted western Aleppo.

Totals
SyAAF 0 activity

UAV: 3

VKS: 21
V-MF: 2 (possible)

Must be the bad weather is prevalent today too, then so far only one Russian fighter-jet was registered this morning too.

Can't but observe what a severe impact bad weather has on ops of both the SyAAF and the VKS. For SyAAF, this is not much surprise: that service lacks not only training in all-weather ops, but also equipment (except for Su-24s, of course). But Russians are flying types supposedly capable of operating not only by all weather, but by 'all weather and night'. And still, their activity seems to be strictly limited to periods of slight weather improvement: whenever it's raining, they are not flying at all. This is even less understanable considering their primary nav/attack platform - the famed SVP-24 - is GLONASS-supported, and thus supposed not to be impacted by weather at all.

*************

A 'slightly refined' version of the report above is meanwhile available as Bamboozling Aerial Operations by Assad-Regime and Russians (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/bamboozling-aerial-operations-by-assad-regime-and-russians-71add5d53ea4#.7kio3zo3z), as is the article Pro-Regime Forces in Syria Are Stretched Thin — And Fighting Among Themselves (https://warisboring.com/pro-regime-forces-in-syria-are-stretched-thin-and-fighting-among-themselves-a0f88b1d0d38#.jyddchw7h) - which is detailing how the Russians are trying to reorganize the 'bardak' created by Assadist and IRGC's militias on the battlefield of Syria.

(That said, some things about that article 'went wrong'... for example, I find it anything but 'shocking' that the IRGC is leading the onslaught on Aleppo; and the photo of the Russian officer is actually showing General Vladimir Savchenko. His official position is that of ‘Head of Centre for Reconciliation’ – in essence a Russian-PR-stunt mimicking reconciliation between insurgents and the regime.
He should have signed the Russo-Turkish agreement about cease-fire and withdrawal of insurgents and civilians from Aleppo – which in turn is between ‘largely’ and ‘completely’ ignored by the IRGC and Assadists.)

Meanwhile, the evacuation of insurgents and civilians from Eastern Aleppo is over. The latest affair began by IRGC's jihadists stopping the last column, forcing all 800 people on board of buses out of these. Then they disarmed and forced them to lay on the ground (https://twitter.com/danriversitv/status/810041601691152384), executed at least four and de-facto hijacked the others (https://twitter.com/24Aleppo/status/809717786830315522).

In the aftermath of this, even the Keystone Cops in Moscow were left with little choice but to declare the evacuation for 'completed', and announce that military operations have been re-launched (https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/809720648578854912)...

So much about 'Russians have the say in Syria'...

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 01:35 PM

Aleppo: #FSA & Turkish army have captured #Qabr_al_Mukri village east of #Al_Bab from #ISIS.

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
"Western media aren't independent" proKremlin narrative to undermine credibility of any Western media #DisinfoReview
http://eepurl.com/cqY1GP

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Western efforts to counter disinformation are distorted as "Russophobia" in pro-Kremlin media. #DisinfoReview:
http://eepurl.com/cr-oUX

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Read @stratcomcoe study on new developments in Kremlin's approach to information warfare:
https://goo.gl/sIoaJD

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 01:38 PM

Social media has been saying this for months now.....

Pro-Regime Forces in Syria Are Stretched Thin — And Fighting Among Themselves
https://warisboring.com/pro-regime-forces-in-syria-are-stretched-thin-and-fighting-among-themselves-a0f88b1d0d38#.bplxs4dz0#

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 01:40 PM

Aleppo: 1000s now at the #Syria|n border in #Turkey demanding an end of the Eastern #Aleppo siege.

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 01:52 PM

Hackers can take over an entire network with this tiny $35 box
http://read.bi/2h9YicJ

CrowBat

12-17-2016, 04:42 PM

Social media has been saying this for months now.....

https://warisboring.com/pro-regime-forces-in-syria-are-stretched-thin-and-fighting-among-themselves-a0f88b1d0d38#.bplxs4dz0#
...and the author of that article since since more than three years (i.e. before the social media started reporting this)... ;)

Anyway, it's really 'fascinating' to monitor the Russian 'struggle' with all the militias in Syria, and that since months. In this regards, here an anecdote that was deleted from original manuscript for that article.

Namely, some of Russians I've interviewed over the time (on condition of anonymity, then there's no way anybody related to mil-ops in Syria can talk openly without jeopardising himself - probably the family too), describe the situation in the country (i.e. within regime-controlled areas) with the word 'bardak'.

I'm not sure if any of them is aware of that, but this word comes from Hebrew for 'mess' - in sense of 'piggishness' in English, or 'Schweinerei' in German.

CrowBat

12-17-2016, 04:49 PM

The Mullahs’ Syrian Airlift Gets a Boost (http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mullahs-syrian-airlift-gets-a-boost-1481839332)

Boeing sells 80 aircraft to an Iranian regime that uses passenger jets to supply Bashar Assad. Thank Obama’s nuclear deal.
...
One just can't summarize this any better, just like one couldn't describe the situation in Aleppo any better than this:

Alep#: faux et usage de faux (http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2016/12/16/alep-faux-et-usage-de-faux_1535920)

'Unusually', the latter is in French, but it's worth running through any kind of translation software you might have - and reading to the last dot and comma.

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 09:11 PM

Circulating Gen. #Gerasimov doctrine graph is from his 2013 article on hybrid war, predicted in 1940s.
http://vpk-news.ru/sites/default/files/pdf/VPK_08_476.pdf#

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 09:19 PM

...and the author of that article since since more than three years (i.e. before the social media started reporting this)... ;)

Anyway, it's really 'fascinating' to monitor the Russian 'struggle' with all the militias in Syria, and that since months. In this regards, here an anecdote that was deleted from original manuscript for that article.

Namely, some of Russians I've interviewed over the time (on condition of anonymity, then there's no way anybody related to mil-ops in Syria can talk openly without jeopardising himself - probably the family too), describe the situation in the country (i.e. within regime-controlled areas) with the word 'bardak'.

I'm not sure if any of them is aware of that, but this word comes from Hebrew for 'mess' - in sense of 'piggishness' in English, or 'Schweinerei' in German.

Totally missed you on this........my mind due to work has been in 10 different places this week.....Russian hacking has kept us hopping....

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 09:22 PM

CIT (en) ‏@CITeam_en
Russian social media: Major Sanal Sanchirov, paratrooper assault battalion commander of 56th paratrooper brigade, killed in Syria recently.

CIT (en) @CITeam_en
Putin awards tank commander for Syrian operation, proving Ru tanks indeed fought there:
https://citeam.org/russian-vehicles-transferred-from-hmeymim-airbase-to-eastern-syria/#

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 09:24 PM

CIT (en) ‏@CITeam_en
Acc to @rosbaltru, 5 soldiers involved in the filming of Chechen military police going to Syria video were arrested http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/12/13/1575337.html#…

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 10:15 PM

Russian PMC Wagner Syrian and eastern Ukraine activity is top secret. To derive any conclusion on them it requires tremendous skills & deep knowledge.

Most prominent recent PMC Wagner KIA was Sergey Chupov in March 2016. Then derived by indirect, inside, direct srcs.

Per Wagner's 1st wife rumour has it he's born in #Ukraine. His mother lived in #Ukraine. Likely she still lives.
http://sprotyv.info/ru/news/kiev/eshche-raz-o-vagnere-noye-podrobnosti-o-rossiyskom-terroriste-poluchivshem-vysshie#…

The Russian killed by ISIS also had a rare infrared scope IWT 640 Charon, price: $14000
http://allammo.ru/teplovizory-dlja-ohoty/teplovizionnie-pritsely/iwt/teplovizionnyy_pritsel_iwt_640_kharon/#

The Russian killed by ISIS near Palmyra had on him a very rare Vkladysh mine/grenade
http://spec-naz.org/index.php?/topic/2647/#

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 10:21 PM

How the US can cut Russia-sponsored fake news.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-trump-can-beat-putin-at-his-media-game/2016/12/13/3f31db2a-bf14-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html#

OUTLAW 09

12-17-2016, 10:25 PM

Russian hackers appear to be linked to the Cyber Caliphate

'Children scream as gunmen try to pick them off' - @danriversitv writes a harrowing account from Aleppo
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/17/inside-aleppo-children-scream-gunmen-try-pick/#

Picture shows #Hizbollah fighters in Alramousah border with the East #Aleppo and cutting the road of the evacuation process

Azor

12-17-2016, 11:28 PM

You are getting way off the Syrian thread...just one response....

And which one of us is responsible for that?

We all know the stunt that Russia is pulling in Syria.

Does it do the Syria thread any good to make it a cross-thread discussion on US politics, Putin’s foreign policy and Russia’s other small wars?

RE: NATO BMD/EPAA

Clark Murdock and others disagree with you that Russia had no cause to be alarmed at BMD in Central Europe. While the system as designed was not a threat to Russia at the time, it could be upgraded to pose a threat if the political decision was made by NATO and/or the United States. Russia continues to wargame nuclear warfare, and has concluded that Russia would have roughly half the survivable retaliatory warheads that the United States would have: approximately 100. Although US BMD systems would have no meaningful impact on a Russian first strike, they could whittle down a Russian second strike, reducing the retaliatory strike from 100 warheads to say 85 or less.

The United States no longer wargames in the same manner because they are more focused on the probability of Russia taking a political decision to launch a first strike, whereas Russia focuses on capability over will. There is a logic to the Russian approach, given that the US was in the position after 1992, to launch a conventional counterforce strike on Russia (stealth bombers, PGMs), which the latter had little ability to defend against. Moreover, the Bush administration had various officials who wanted to resurrect SDI.

You are absolutely correct that Russia wants no threats to the tactical nuclear weapons on is borders. However, Russia relies on tactical nuclear weapons because it has poor conventional precision-strike capabilities.

In addition, you must acknowledge that the breakdown in cooperation on BMD was not entirely one-sided, and that Poland and the Czech Republic were curious locations for the system, if the threat was from Iran. After all, was Iran not more likely to target the GCC members, Israel, and US bases in Diego Garcia, Turkey, Cyprus, Djibouti, etc., rather than Central Europe?

If NATO BMD was intended to counter Russian SRBMs such as the Iskander, then Russia’s opposition and suspicion would be understandable, no (the focus on Iran would be a lie)?

Overall, I think that the Kremlin still suffers from the same misconceptions about American intentions that it did during the early 1980s (e.g. Operation RYAN, Able Archer, etc.). If the US government believes that North Korea's crude bombs make it too much of a porcupine, why would it possibly think that destroying Russia would be worth losing over 1/3 of its population? It is insane, and I don't believe that the Pentagon has a magic number of acceptable losses that it is driving for, say 75 million is OK but 80 million is not...

We must distinguish between Russia’s more legitimate concerns, and Russia’s desire to freely menace Western Europe with nuclear weapons, which is illegitimate.

Anyhow, back to Syria, I hope...

Azor

12-18-2016, 12:02 AM

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 07:17 AM

And which one of us is responsible for that?

We all know the stunt that Russia is pulling in Syria.

Does it do the Syria thread any good to make it a cross-thread discussion on US politics, Putin’s foreign policy and Russia’s other small wars?

RE: NATO BMD/EPAA

Clark Murdock and others disagree with you that Russia had no cause to be alarmed at BMD in Central Europe. While the system as designed was not a threat to Russia at the time, it could be upgraded to pose a threat if the political decision was made by NATO and/or the United States. Russia continues to wargame nuclear warfare, and has concluded that Russia would have roughly half the survivable retaliatory warheads that the United States would have: approximately 100. Although US BMD systems would have no meaningful impact on a Russian first strike, they could whittle down a Russian second strike, reducing the retaliatory strike from 100 warheads to say 85 or less.

The United States no longer wargames in the same manner because they are more focused on the probability of Russia taking a political decision to launch a first strike, whereas Russia focuses on capability over will. There is a logic to the Russian approach, given that the US was in the position after 1992, to launch a conventional counterforce strike on Russia (stealth bombers, PGMs), which the latter had little ability to defend against. Moreover, the Bush administration had various officials who wanted to resurrect SDI.

You are absolutely correct that Russia wants no threats to the tactical nuclear weapons on is borders. However, Russia relies on tactical nuclear weapons because it has poor conventional precision-strike capabilities.

In addition, you must acknowledge that the breakdown in cooperation on BMD was not entirely one-sided, and that Poland and the Czech Republic were curious locations for the system, if the threat was from Iran. After all, was Iran not more likely to target the GCC members, Israel, and US bases in Diego Garcia, Turkey, Cyprus, Djibouti, etc., rather than Central Europe?

If NATO BMD was intended to counter Russian SRBMs such as the Iskander, then Russia’s opposition and suspicion would be understandable, no (the focus on Iran would be a lie)?

Overall, I think that the Kremlin still suffers from the same misconceptions about American intentions that it did during the early 1980s (e.g. Operation RYAN, Able Archer, etc.). If the US government believes that North Korea's crude bombs make it too much of a porcupine, why would it possibly think that destroying Russia would be worth losing over 1/3 of its population? It is insane, and I don't believe that the Pentagon has a magic number of acceptable losses that it is driving for, say 75 million is OK but 80 million is not...

We must distinguish between Russia’s more legitimate concerns, and Russia’s desire to freely menace Western Europe with nuclear weapons, which is illegitimate.

Anyhow, back to Syria, I hope...

I intertwine both eastern Ukraine and Syria simply because they are part and parcel of the same ongoing Russian non linear war being actively pushed by Putin against first of the US and then EU and then NATO....since 2002...

As far as I know I am about the only commenter here that has ever been in an very real BMD exercise pushing just about every scenario under the sun directly at the BMD.....and regardless of what others write..say and or think..without THADD coupled into it and there is none in Europe and there are no plans for one......there is absolutely no threat to the Russian ICBM threat..thus MAD is still in place.....I have seen THADD deployed but in the protection of one specific geo location and that was not in Europe.

THERE is though a direct threat to the tactical level nukes.....which Russia has massively increased in sheer numbers for the last 15 years......

NOTICE the unleashing of the non linear war starting 2002 and the direct increase in tactical nukes starting in 2001...not by accident.

I have been able to piece together in conversations with local former GDR citizens that saw Putin a number of times in a certain GDR area that shot holes in a well crafted narrative concerning his time in Dresden....and that he might be far more connected inside the former KGB than we give him credit for....as he trained in a very specific location with an very elite Soviet army unit that we did not know even existed and or that it was located where it was in the early to mid 80s.....

BTW with the latest Iranian missile testing the range on that test is more than enough to reach central Europe from Iran.....and some say the accuracy is excellent.....and the BMD exercises included that missile development.....

The Russian argument is the same Soviet arguments used during the cruise missile debates and stationing..

Suggestion maybe the Russians would like the Israeli Iron Dome upgrade version 2 on their borders.....and their latest BMD development as well...that then might actually be a reason for the Russians to be concerned.....

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 07:30 AM

Thank you for your continued ORBATs of Russian forces in Syria.

In March 2015, Phillip Karber analyzed Russia's ORBAT in Donbas, and noted how Russia relied upon rotating in BTGs created from units based all over Russia, from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka (https://www.csis.org/events/russian-military-forum-russias-hybrid-war-campaign-implications-ukraine-and-beyond).

Karber noted the difficulty Russia had in actually deploying forces into Donbas that were volunteer professionals. Obviously, deploying an expeditionary force of 9,000 soldiers to Donbas to fight a land war under the cover of plausible deniability, is an entirely different affair than taking on 30,000 NATO soldiers (rapid deployable corps including the VJTF) backed by superior airpower.

Outlaw 09 has noted how many Russian units that saw service in Donbas rotate into Syria.

The folks over at StrategyPage have consistently claimed that Russia can draw upon roughly 100,000 professional volunteer soldiers that are trained and equipped along Western standards, and that this includes various National Guard/Interior Ministry Spetsnaz units.

Thoughts?

Based on conversations with senior Russian General Staff officers..senior officers from their military academy and the commanding officers of the 14th Peacekeeping Brigade (2012/2013) the Russian army is to go to a 250,000 full time contract professional army....

Might actually post their powerpoint presentations about their long term planned development for the entire army...here....some are in English some in Russian...just need to dig them out of data storage.

THUS the constant rotation to give the existing force combat experience...there has been solid evidence that recent Russian army officers graduating from the Russian artillery school have been in eastern Ukraine and actively engaged in Russian army artillery attacks on UAF positions especially the heavy 152mm side using drone recon assisting in fire and control.....first rumored then confirmed via voice intercepts....

CrowBat

12-18-2016, 11:50 AM

Time and again, I either see people asking if there are any 'good guys' in Syria, or I'm asked if there are 'any good guys left there', or there is commentary in style of 'there are no good sides in this war'.

There is no discussion about the fact that all involved parties perceive their 'armed forces' as the 'good guys' there. This is the very essence of about 99% of SCW-related discussions on the internet.

IMHO, such discussions are actually pointless and a waste of time. What really matters is how do the people living inside areas controlled by military forces in question live, i.e. how is the every-day life organized. That, after all, is the very essence of the Syrian 'Civil' War: a popular uprising against an oppressive regime that is terrorising population since more than 40 years.

In this regards, there is no doubt about who are the 'good guys' there. Namely, and without mentioning any 'names', fact is that

a) on one side there are three oppressive dictatorships, widely renowned for applying all sorts of terror against any kind of opposition;

b) on the other side there are local civic authorities, more than half of which are run by people elected by people.

Certainly enough, 'elections' in question are often rudimentary, at most 'primitively democratic', but - contrary to quasi-elections in the three dictatorships fighting against these authorities, they are genuinely competitive.

Because the reporting about authorities in question is usually drown in 'ambient sounds' caused by the mass of sensationalist reporting about all other possible topics, and for general orientation, I've created a small list of useful links about 'Local Councils' active within insurgent-held parts of Syria.

‘Good Guys’ in Syria: Collection of Links about Civic Authorities (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/good-guys-in-syria-collection-of-links-about-civic-authorities-in-syria-e54fdaf4c7c9#.iwav6cvm5)

Hope, some here might find this useful; anybody interested in expanding this list with additional informative reports is most welcome to let me know.

CrowBat

12-18-2016, 11:58 AM

Thank you for your continued ORBATs of Russian forces in Syria.You're welcome. Keep in mind I consider the ORBAT in question for 'largely obsolete' meanwhile.

Namely, I'm sure it looked like this in period October 2015 - May 2016. But, I haven't updated it ever since, and know that some of units in question ahve been rotated out of Syria during this summer. Thus I wouldn't bet on more than about 50% of it being 'accurate' nowadays.

Re. how are Russians staffing their units in Syria and how many troops they might have: frankly (as always) I do not know much about the Russian military in general. I know 'enough for general orientation' about the Russian Aerospace Force.

But, from what I've heard from my sources in that country, the situation is such that - generally - only something like one third of ground forces are 'combat ready' at any given time. Accordingly, this is so because of the draft system, and the way this works: one third of each unit is always composed of fresh draftees/rainbows undergoing basic training; one third is undergoing advanced training or on leave; and one is combat ready.

Further to this, they seem to have a number of units that are largely composed of professional soldiers: people who either volunteered to serve, or volunteered to continue their national service for an extended period of time (not sure if this is 1, 2, 3 or more years). This is what we call 'Zeitsoldaten' in Austria (something like 'Soldiers for specific period of time'), for example.

Now, the units deployed in Syria should be exclusively composed of the latter. I.e. of the 'combat ready third' of each of brigades or regiments in question, and then staffed entirely by 'Zeitsoldaten'.

It's only since relatively recently (can't recall the exact date) - namely, since Putin released a decree according to which regular troops serving their national service can be deployed abroad - that this might have changed. But even then, only the 'combat ready' third of each brigade in question is deployed.

...which in turn would explain why my ORBAT is 'full' of citations for 'battalion-sized task forces' (and confirm this too): namely, it seems that average Russian Army brigade includes three battalions.

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 12:41 PM

Azor.....this shows you the depth of the intertwining of the Russian non linear war against the US......in theory those Americans in this group could in theory be charged as being traitors to the US.....

The FBI after reading this should be on their doorstep tomorrow morning asking the following single question...."if you are representing a "foreign state" have you formerly registered with the Us government as a "foreign agent"...if not then that alone is a federal offense.....

California's Separatist Movement Gets an ‘Embassy’ in Moscow
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/californias-separatist-movement-gets-an-embassy-in-moscow-56568#

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 12:50 PM

Powerful by @FredericHof:

"Everyone connected with the abomination in #Aleppo will pay a heavy price”

http://wpo.st/FGEN2

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 12:53 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 04:16 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 04:23 PM

Russian Naval Express....

Project11356M #ВМФ #ЧФ BSF frigate Admiral Grigorovich 494 returns from 44days Mediterranean deployment &transits Bosphorus towards BlackSea

Admiral Grigorovich did an average of 25.6knots from the north exit of Dardanelles strait to the south end of the Bosphorus. That's quick.

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 04:27 PM

Don't Forget How Trolls/Kremlin Trolls/Bots Works On Social Media/Media:Analysis Reveals:
https://globalvoices.org/2015/04/02/analyzing-kremlin-twitter-bots/#

Don't forget this: Documents Show How Russia’s KremlinTrolls Army Hit USA:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/documents-show-how-russias-troll-army-hit-america#.naL0MvrqA#

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 04:31 PM

Aleppo: #Aleppo "evacuation" deal suspended, nobody has left besieged Eastern #Aleppo. Situation is very bad. People are terrified.

Heavy clashes between rebels & Assad/pro-Assad forces continue on the Maida’ani front in eastern Ghouta, #Damascus

Damascus: Heavy clashes between rebels and pro-#Assad forces in Eastern #Ghouta and Northern #Daraa.

Clashes also reported in northern #Daraa (triangle of death) between rebels & Assad militias

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 04:37 PM

Idlib: The green buses to evacuate people from regime-held #Fuah and #Kefraya were attacked and set on fire.

The Red Cross hopes to resume the evacuation of eastern Aleppo today. We spoke with a civilian trapped in the city.
http://en.hromadske.ua/articles/show/battle_for_aleppo#

Syria Militants burn buses heading to Fuah & Kfraya in #Idlib to evacuate Shiite villages.
Seems #Aleppo evacuation today fail too

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) condemns the burning of buses intended for Fuah & Kafraya.

= ‘Crime endangering 50,000 people in #Aleppo.'

Rumored to have been JFS who fled Aleppo....not proven though

Frmr rebel leader Omar Al-Rahmoun, a key signatory on #Aleppo evacuation deal, allegedly accuses #JFS of torching #Fuah-bound buses

Video of the bus burning....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XN8S2r2mSo#

Aleppo: Pro-#Assad forces have blocked a convoy from Eastern #Aleppo and sent the people back to the besieged area this evening.

Aleppo: People in besieged Eastern #Aleppo dying due to injuries, cold and hunger.

Idlib: A new group, called Mujahideen of Saraya al-Tawheed, vowing to target all people who come from #Fuah and #Kefraya.

Clashes now ongoing between Al-Nusra and Ahrar Al-Sham in the vicinity of the besieged towns of Kafaria & Fouaa.

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 04:39 PM

Iraqi families moving into #Damascus suburb: reports #Syria
http://mme.cm/CMBW00

Video: FSA directly strikes regime armored military vehicle on Arbin front, east Ghouta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXMTuPoisIU#…

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 04:52 PM

5 buses enter Fuah to transport wounded in exchange for the release of half of the civilians trapped in E.Aleppo

Regime drops themobaric bombs & cluster bombs on Hajib, Banan, Bisha, Ramla & outer Khanasr, rural S.Aleppo

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 06:59 PM

BREAKING: Syria evacuations postponed until further notice: monitor - AFP

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 08:01 PM

Russian Syrian Express....

Ropucha class landing ship Alexander Shabalin passed through Istanbul for her 6th Syrian Express deployment

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 08:30 PM

"Aleppo is a place where the children have stopped crying." Scenes of sheer terror & grief in Aleppo's last hospital

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 08:31 PM

Russian wants no witnesses to their and Assad's ongoing genocide in Aleppo.....

Russia's UN envoy says he will block security council resolution sending observers to monitor Aleppo evacuations. Vote expected later today.

BREAKING Russia circulates its own UN resolution on Aleppo crisis: diplomats

So #Russia is vetoing the proposal because their fear for #UN personnel's safety?

So much for the vaulted Russian AF and their vaulted Spetsnaz.....

Or is Russia trying to warn the @UN that #AssadPutin and #Iran troops are hostile towards UN personal and a threat to their lives?!

At the end of the year 2016, we came to a point where #Russia decides what global @UN troops are capable of and what not.

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 08:47 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 08:49 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-18-2016, 09:53 PM

I am posting this as something that might be of interest........concerns UW in the Cold War

Special Forces Berlin: Clandestine Cold War Operations of the US Army's Elite, 1956-1990
by James Stejskal

It is a little-known fact that during the Cold War, two U.S. Army Special Forces detachments were stationed far behind the Iron Curtain in West Berlin. The existence and missions of the two detachments were highly classified secrets.

The massive armies of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies posed a huge threat to the nations of Western Europe. US military planners decided they needed a plan to slow the juggernaut they expected when and if a war began. The plan was Special Forces Berlin. The first 40 men who came to Berlin in mid-1956 were soon reinforced by 60 more and these 100 soldiers (and their successors) would stand ready to go to war at only two hours’ notice, in a hostile area occupied by nearly one million Warsaw Pact forces, until 1990.

Their mission should hostilities commence was to wreak havoc behind enemy lines, and buy time for vastly outnumbered NATO forces to conduct a breakout from the city. In reality it was an ambitious and extremely dangerous mission, even suicidal. Highly trained and fluent in German, each man was allocated a specific area. They were skilled in clandestine operations, sabotage, intelligence tradecraft and able to act if necessary as independent operators, blending into the local population and working unseen in a city awash with spies looking for information on their every move.

Special Forces Berlin was a one of a kind unit that had no parallel. It left a legacy of a new type of soldier expert in unconventional warfare, one that was sought after for other deployments including the attempted rescue of American hostages from Tehran in 1979. With the U.S. government officially acknowledging their existence in 2014, their incredible story can now be told.

Meet the Author
James Stejskal served for 23 years with Special Forces, including two tours in Berlin, retiring as a Chief Warrant Officer 4. He then served 13 years with the CIA as a senior Operations Officer (Case Officer) in Africa, Europe and Asia. He is now a military historian and conflict archaeologist. This is his second book.

ISBN-13:
9781612004440
Publisher:
Casemate Publishers
Publication date:
02/19/2017

ALL proceeds go to support SF families

Azor

12-19-2016, 08:49 AM

I intertwine both eastern Ukraine and Syria simply because they are part and parcel of the same ongoing Russian non-linear war being actively pushed by Putin against first of the US and then EU and then NATO...since 2002…

I don’t think that Surkov’s “non-linear warfare” is helpful to our understanding of Ukraine or Syria any more than his “managed democracy”, except perhaps as a polite euphemism.

The true beginning of Putin’s more intelligent use of power was in Chechnya, where he co-opted the Kadyrovs.

Looking at Russia’s various aggressions during Putin’s rule, Crimea is actually an outlier.

In every other operation, Russia extensively relied upon local auxiliaries, including criminals and paramilitary organizations, and in all cases, there is both cooperation and conflict between Russia and these auxiliaries, and among the auxiliaries themselves.

You have reported on the anarchy in Donbas and CrowBat has reported on it in Syria, most recently in WarIsBoring. Yet these conditions also prevailed in Chechnya, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The assassinations in Donbas are reminiscent of the consolidation of Russian/Kadyrotsi rule in Chechnya. Certainly, Putin’s ideal is Transnistria, but he has no problem dealing with the anarchy in Syria, even if he is the junior partner.

It is interesting that you chose 2002 as the start of Putin’s conflict with the West. It coincides with the NATO summit in Prague, during which the former Soviet republics and Russian imperial subjects of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were invited to join NATO, which would now border Russia, Kaliningrad and Murmansk notwithstanding. In addition, NATO decided to continue to increase membership and to form the Response Force. At the summit, Bush called for a “coalition of the willing” to invade Iraq.

Putin clearly arrived at the following conclusions:

NATO membership would be offered to other countries bordering Russia, which it was later (to 3 of 5 prospective members)

NATO was taking on the character of an offensive military alliance, given the operations in the former Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, the formation of the Response Force and the call for a “coalition of the willing” of NATO members to invade a country outside of Europe

NATO was not concerned about Russian preferences in Kosovo or with respect to the expansion of NATO

NATO was continuing a policy of containment and perhaps even rollback toward Russia, even though Russia was not in conflict with NATO

Nor do I regard the unresolved border conflicts that Putin inherited from Yeltsin as signs of expansion. Putin obviously wants to retain the status quo in order to have outposts in Moldova and Georgia, but his de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not occur until Georgia launched a war (and committed war crimes), until Georgia advanced toward NATO membership and until Kosovo had been recognized as independent of Serbia by the United States and most of NATO.

This is not to say that the conflict between the West and Russia is the fault of the West. In all probability, Russia could never have integrated with the West. Incorporation into the European Union would have meant the destruction of Russia’s mafia state and economic domination by Western Europe in general, and Germany in particular. Incorporation into NATO would have meant that Russia could never engage in aggression against its neighbors and that it could not rely on nuclear saber-rattling to receive special treatment diplomatically. Nevertheless, Clinton and Bush acted stupidly and exacerbated the problem.

As far as I know I am about the only commenter here that has ever been in an very real BMD exercise pushing just about every scenario under the sun directly at the BMD.....and regardless of what others write..say and or think..without THADD coupled into it and there is none in Europe and there are no plans for one......there is absolutely no threat to the Russian ICBM threat..thus MAD is still in place...

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States did not expect Russia to attack it, and until recently did not consider a deliberate first strike as possible. Similarly, both the UK and France are surrounded by allies and there is no realistic threat of either country being invaded, again excluding recent tensions with Russia. All three are also members of the world’s most powerful military alliance with such conventional power that nuclear weapons are regarded as a last resort. So why then did all three countries maintain and upgrade their nuclear arsenals over the past 25-odd years? Why do both Russia and the United States monitor one another’s compliance with INF and START? See where I’m going?

As you are enlightened as to BMD, can you answer me the following questions:

Why were these systems located in Central Europe rather than closer to Iran, or in the countries most likely to be targeted by Iran?
Was there no possibility that these systems could be upgraded so as to intercept Russia’s ICBMs or SLBMs?
Was there no possibility that these facilities could be upgraded to feature offensive weapons such as SRBMs, or even banned weapons such as GLCMs or IRBMs?
Were these facilities not permanent and therefore in violation of the CFE Treaty?

There is no treaty on tactical nuclear weapons, so does Russia not have a right to use them for deterrence?

Do you disagree with Clark Murdock on Russia’s concerns over MAD?

Azor

12-19-2016, 08:53 AM

The battle of #Aleppo "sets a horrific precedent for conflicts in the 21st century"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-bloodbath-in-aleppo-will-haunt-humanity/2016/12/14/ffe0d646-c22a-11e6-9a51-cd56ea1c2bb7_story.html?postshare=581481835237809&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.c24e00fe1370#

Yawn. WaPo must have a short memory. Now that the Neo-Conservatives endorsed Hillary Clinton, Iraq is forgotten...

Africa continues to suffer and is practically begging for regime-change and nation building, but *crickets*

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 10:10 AM

I don’t think that Surkov’s “non-linear warfare” is helpful to our understanding of Ukraine or Syria any more than his “managed democracy”, except perhaps as a polite euphemism.

The true beginning of Putin’s more intelligent use of power was in Chechnya, where he co-opted the Kadyrovs.

Looking at Russia’s various aggressions during Putin’s rule, Crimea is actually an outlier.

In every other operation, Russia extensively relied upon local auxiliaries, including criminals and paramilitary organizations, and in all cases, there is both cooperation and conflict between Russia and these auxiliaries, and among the auxiliaries themselves.

You have reported on the anarchy in Donbas and CrowBat has reported on it in Syria, most recently in WarIsBoring. Yet these conditions also prevailed in Chechnya, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The assassinations in Donbas are reminiscent of the consolidation of Russian/Kadyrotsi rule in Chechnya. Certainly, Putin’s ideal is Transnistria, but he has no problem dealing with the anarchy in Syria, even if he is the junior partner.

It is interesting that you chose 2002 as the start of Putin’s conflict with the West. It coincides with the NATO summit in Prague, during which the former Soviet republics and Russian imperial subjects of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were invited to join NATO, which would now border Russia, Kaliningrad and Murmansk notwithstanding. In addition, NATO decided to continue to increase membership and to form the Response Force. At the summit, Bush called for a “coalition of the willing” to invade Iraq.

Putin clearly arrived at the following conclusions:

NATO membership would be offered to other countries bordering Russia, which it was later (to 3 of 5 prospective members)

NATO was taking on the character of an offensive military alliance, given the operations in the former Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, the formation of the Response Force and the call for a “coalition of the willing” of NATO members to invade a country outside of Europe

NATO was not concerned about Russian preferences in Kosovo or with respect to the expansion of NATO

NATO was continuing a policy of containment and perhaps even rollback toward Russia, even though Russia was not in conflict with NATO

Nor do I regard the unresolved border conflicts that Putin inherited from Yeltsin as signs of expansion. Putin obviously wants to retain the status quo in order to have outposts in Moldova and Georgia, but his de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not occur until Georgia launched a war (and committed war crimes), until Georgia advanced toward NATO membership and until Kosovo had been recognized as independent of Serbia by the United States and most of NATO.

This is not to say that the conflict between the West and Russia is the fault of the West. In all probability, Russia could never have integrated with the West. Incorporation into the European Union would have meant the destruction of Russia’s mafia state and economic domination by Western Europe in general, and Germany in particular. Incorporation into NATO would have meant that Russia could never engage in aggression against its neighbors and that it could not rely on nuclear saber-rattling to receive special treatment diplomatically. Nevertheless, Clinton and Bush acted stupidly and exacerbated the problem.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States did not expect Russia to attack it, and until recently did not consider a deliberate first strike as possible. Similarly, both the UK and France are surrounded by allies and there is no realistic threat of either country being invaded, again excluding recent tensions with Russia. All three are also members of the world’s most powerful military alliance with such conventional power that nuclear weapons are regarded as a last resort. So why then did all three countries maintain and upgrade their nuclear arsenals over the past 25-odd years? Why do both Russia and the United States monitor one another’s compliance with INF and START? See where I’m going?

As you are enlightened as to BMD, can you answer me the following questions:

Why were these systems located in Central Europe rather than closer to Iran, or in the countries most likely to be targeted by Iran?
Was there no possibility that these systems could be upgraded so as to intercept Russia’s ICBMs or SLBMs?
Was there no possibility that these facilities could be upgraded to feature offensive weapons such as SRBMs, or even banned weapons such as GLCMs or IRBMs?
Were these facilities not permanent and therefore in violation of the CFE Treaty?

There is no treaty on tactical nuclear weapons, so does Russia not have a right to use them for deterrence?

Do you disagree with Clark Murdock on Russia’s concerns over MAD?

Here we go.....

1. I am deeply concerned with the new Russian first strike doctrine changed in late 2013 and announced again in 2014 using tactical nukes as that actually defeats the purpose of MAD...which was based largely and initially on ICBMs.....

2. I do think that Putin truly believes that he could in fact tactical first strike before the West could react and thus force the West into a military decision to go full retaliatory with all the destruction which he feels then would force the West to not retaliate and settle the issue with Putin BECAUSE the West cannot match the tactical nuke abilities of the current Russian military....yes they can deliver via aircraft...but nuclear tipped cruise missiles and or SS21 style delivery vehicles NATO does not have...most of these were removed from the inventories years ago when everyone thought peace for good had broken out...

3. check the Russian frozen conflicts on the map and you will se Russia has built a "wall" on their western border that allows them to use these enclaves as "excuses" ie protecting Russian speakers and or defending Russian stationed troops called "peacekeepers" which they are not as they have been tied into the overall new Russian military districts....physically located back in Russia...this allows Putin to challenge the West any time he wants by simply "heating up" a frozen conflict at will...

4. Reference BDM....all sites foresee the use of Patriot Block 3 missiles....do some research on Patriots a lot on open source on the subject and you will notice that the reload of the batteries is always dictated by field demands/uses via missile Blocks 1, 2 or 3...depends on the types of targets they anticipate seeing and that they cannot simply on the fly suddenly use a missile from one Block designed for another target set if a different target set is inbound....sure they can fire at inbound missiles with the wrong Block but percentage of hits drops...

Patriot batteries can fire at literally anything if detected/acquired by radar....THAT is exactly why I think the Russians are vehemently against them... it does in fact negate the new Russian banned weapons such as the GLCM....that alone would then negate the new Russian doctrine of tactical first strike taking them back to the drawing board of MAD.....

There is always upgrades ongoing with the Patriots but in the realm of software which allows for a better target identification and in the removal of "possible false positive detections" of inbound targets.....

A lot of the Patriot locations are determined by fields of fire meaning where to best fire in order to get the best missile launch to ensure accurate hits....and how the sites can be tied into radar detection centers....most of the time the launched missile has to reach a certain height and angle for a better kill...

BUT again as long as no THADD is forward deployed into Europe then the BMD is not a threat to the Russian strategic ICBM threat and MAD is safe and sound.....THADD can in theory be based n the US but detection rates then fall due to the sheer distances of detection that ensue...BUT one could in theory tie it to targeting satellites but that is a waste of satellite time and space...and that is usually limited time wise and orbit wise...

The Russians BTW know all of these as they monitor intensely all US Patriot unit movements like a hawk does it's prey.......

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 02:57 PM

Iran: Our relationship with #Russia is now strategic

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20161217-iran-our-relationship-with-russia-is-now-strategic/#

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 03:11 PM

Syria's youngest poster has made it out of Aleppo with her mother and sister...father was killed in an air strike....

So happy to see that @AlabedBana was safely evacuated from besieged #Aleppo, but sad she had to leave her home.

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 04:54 PM

Breaking. #ISIS claims shot down a #Russia|n attack helicopter over #Tiyas Airbase in E. #Homs.

BREAKING — UN Security Council unanimously adopts the resolution to send observers to Aleppo
http://sabahdai.ly/buX0eR

What a joke. The evac is nearly done. They're going to monitor ruins + good words for Assad rebuilding/"reconciliation"

Assad airstrikes targeted Shifouniya & Misraba in rural #Damascus this morning as well

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 05:21 PM

Russian state media reports the country's ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov has died after being shot at an art exhibition in Ankara

BREAKING Russian state-run agency RIA cites source saying Russian ambassador to #Ankara, Andrey Karlov is dead. #Russia

BREAKING The video shows the attack scene moments after Russian Ambassador shot to death. He shouts "don't forget Aleppo, Syria"

Turkey PM issues temporary gag order on "All news, images and comment" regr the armed assault to Russian Amb. Karlov
https://www.rtuk.gov.tr/alt-siteler/2058/5192/ankarada-rus-buyukelcisine-yapilan-saldiriya-iliskin-basbakanligin-yayin-yasagi-karari.html#

Russian ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, was shot multiple times while giving a speech, state media says
http://cnn.it/2h463Fe

NOW Russian info warfare is kicking into high gear over this killing.....

Belligerent Russian expert, operating in default mode, says America is responsible for the shooting of Moscow's ambassador to Turkey

WHO is the individual...social media now in the process of searching to see if anything exists on the individual on the entire net....

Spreading that video of Russian ambassador's assassination is essentially amplifying the assassin's message. Consider before retweeting.

Putin being briefed on killing of Russian ambassador in #Ankara. Big Q how he responds—relations have been up & down
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/542104

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 05:22 PM

The CL2 Before the Storm — Alleged Chemical Attacks in Aleppo in the Last Months of 2016 via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/12/19/the-cl2-before-the-storm/#

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 05:25 PM

How Putin’s Fake News Machine Spread From Ukraine Across the#Globe

Outrageous media hoaxes, Internet trolls and repression at home are all key instruments in the Kremlin’s political tool#box

https://warisboring.com/how-putins-fake-news-machine-spread-from-ukraine-across-the-globe-99076753919#.fqiavxv3i

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 05:43 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 05:51 PM

Russian info warfare deep at work......

One talking head after another goes on Kremlin TV to insinuate Ankara assassination planned by powers opposed to Russia as Mideast player.

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 05:53 PM

Quick identification by social media of the shooter......

The attacker is 22 years-old Turkish police M.M.A from Ankara police special force department..

How did he hide his being a jihadi as they are claims he shouts jihadi slogans at the scene of the shooting...

Is this a possible false flag....this does not make sense..how did he hide it from others in his department especially after the coup....

Very imp: pro-AKP journo A.Selvi: attacker's Arabic reciting is also al Nusra's anthem or slogan's beginning: "we obey the jihad order"

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 05:59 PM

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 06:15 PM

Where are the political condemnations of Russia murdering, in a most horrendous fashion, 5 Ukrainian soldiers defending UA yesterday??

SIX wounded yesterday and another 4 today in a series of massive Russian ground attacks in two locations confirmed by OSCE...

World's eyes are on Ankara, but in past 48 hrs Russia/proxies stepped up the war on #Ukraine. 5 UA soldiers dead. Now attacks in #Toretsk

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 07:44 PM

Murdered at the request of a @NATO government.
Yet another inverted Russian CGI / VFX claim.

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 08:02 PM

Palmyra: The downed helicopter was probably a #Syria|n Gazelle. #Tiyas
Palmyra: #ISIS has killed the #Assad Brigadier General Ali Mahmoud, commander of the #Tiyas Airbase, today.

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 08:05 PM

Azor

12-19-2016, 08:47 PM

1. I am deeply concerned with the new Russian first strike doctrine changed in late 2013 and announced again in 2014 using tactical nukes as that actually defeats the purpose of MAD...which was based largely and initially on ICBMs...

I think that you are conflating Russia’s official declared nuclear doctrine with controversial statements made by Russian officials, politicians and analysts in recent years.

Russia’s 2010 doctrine was the first to declare that Russia could respond to conventional aggression with nuclear weapons, although the idea had been gaining ground since 2003 or earlier. Putin is keenly aware of Russia’s conventional weakness and so I do not believe that he ever believed that a NATO-Russia conflict would not escalate to the nuclear level. Russia has used nuclear weapons in its exercises since 2000 and it has increasingly relied upon nuclear deterrence. Tactical nuclear weapons do not negate MAD (initially based upon strategic bombers rather than ballistic missiles); rather, they provide more options, or what McNamara referred to as a “flexible response”.

Note that during the period of American conventional weakness, the US Army deployed nuclear-armed recoilless rifles and US nuclear doctrine post-New Look/Massive Retaliation provided for degrees of nuclear escalation e.g. tactical first, counterforce first, etc. I feel like a broken record here, but the similarities between how US and Russian/Soviet nuclear doctrine is predicated upon conventional capability should be very apparent.

According to Mark Galeotti, the concept of “nuclear de-escalation” is not taken seriously by the General Staff or Ministry of Defense.

2. I do think that Putin truly believes that he could in fact tactical first strike before the West could react and thus force the West into a military decision to go full retaliatory with all the destruction which he feels then would force the West to not retaliate and settle the issue with Putin BECAUSE the West cannot match the tactical nuke abilities of the current Russian military...yes they can deliver via aircraft...but nuclear tipped cruise missiles and or SS21 style delivery vehicles NATO does not have...most of these were removed from the inventories years ago when everyone thought peace for good had broken out...

Putin does not believe in “nuclear de-escalation”.

Firstly, there is the issue of the target of the tactical warhead strike. Would Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in the Baltic, Black or North Seas as a demonstration that inflicts no casualties? Would Russia strike at a civilian target such as Warsaw or Bucharest? Would Russia strike at a military target? Putin may be a gambler but he would be insane to think that NATO would tolerate nuclear mass murder in East-Central Europe. As for military targets, how can Putin know how the French, British or American people will respond if their soldiers are among the victims? Each has separate nuclear C2, and each could decide to respond with nuclear weapons. If the victims are all Polish soldiers and the attack is unanswered, the US-led alliance will not survive accusations of “Western betrayal” (for the third time in the Poles’ view).

Secondly, NATO can hammer Russia with conventional stand-off weapons and destroy the Russian state without resorting to nuclear weapons, and this would first involve attacking Russia’s tactical nuclear assets. Nor is NATO reliant upon stand-off weapons given the stealth and capacity of the B-2s. This would allow NATO to secure the moral high ground and escalation dominance, as Putin will be forced to respond while knowing that NATO is still retaining its tactical and strategic nuclear capabilities and is now on full alert.

Thirdly, the enormous risks of “nuclear de-escalation”, given that neither the Americans nor Russians ever believed that a limited nuclear war was possible or a conventional-only war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact or Russia, what objective would be worth it?

I also believe that you are confusing the SS-21 for the SS-26 Iskander…

3. check the Russian frozen conflicts on the map and you will se Russia has built a "wall" on their western border that allows them to use these enclaves as "excuses" ie protecting Russian speakers and or defending Russian stationed troops called "peacekeepers" which they are not as they have been tied into the overall new Russian military districts....physically located back in Russia...this allows Putin to challenge the West any time he wants by simply "heating up" a frozen conflict at will...

Russia has only turned up the heat when it felt that it was pushing back against NATO or the EU, first in Georgia and then in Ukraine. It is not as though Russia has been creating a second Kaliningrad in Transnistria, which would allow Putin to menace Russia’s southeastern flank.

4. Reference BDM....all sites foresee the use of Patriot Block 3 missiles...

Patriot batteries can fire at literally anything if detected/acquired by radar....THAT is exactly why I think the Russians are vehemently against them... it does in fact negate the new Russian banned weapons such as the GLCM....that alone would then negate the new Russian doctrine of tactical first strike taking them back to the drawing board of MAD.....

For someone well-versed in BMD, it surprises me that you mistook the Tochkha for the Iskander, and that you are conflating the GMD and the Patriot.

The US-Polish agreement under Bush was to install a number of GBIs in Poland of the same variant deployed in Alaska and California. In addition, Poland would receive PAC-3 batteries for air defense, which it considered of far more importance. Basically, the US wanted to create a branch of GMD in Poland to counter ballistic missiles, while Poland wanted an advanced SAM to mainly counter Russian aircraft. The GBI uses ERIS technology from the SDI, whereas PAC-3 uses ERINT. Given the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, how could Russia not see the expansion of GMD to Central Europe as an attempt to target Russian ICBMs?

BUT again as long as no THADD is forward deployed into Europe then the BMD is not a threat to the Russian strategic ICBM threat and MAD is safe and sound.....THADD can in theory be based n the US but detection rates then fall due to the sheer distances of detection that ensue...BUT one could in theory tie it to targeting satellites but that is a waste of satellite time and space...and that is usually limited time wise and orbit wise...

THAAD also uses ERIS technology but is more intended for SRBMs and IRBMs rather than ICBMs. Obviously, there are developments to fuse GMD, THAAD, Aegis BMD and Patriot into one layered system that can protect against all types of ballistic missiles and even cruise missiles in the future, with the missiles complemented by railguns and lasers. This ties in with your point above about the importance of the various programs' radars (e.g. PAC-3) to other systems.

Azor

12-19-2016, 08:49 PM

Graphic picture of the gunman's body shows multiple gunshots on the wall #Turkey

Translation of the Turkish parts in the video of the gunman's words after shooting the Russian ambassador. Video:
http://m.t24.com.tr/haber/rus-buyukelcisine-saldiran-kisi-turkce-slogan-atti-tekbir-getirip-sehadet-isareti-yapti,377926#

Great reporting on this, by the way.

Between Ankara and Berlin, I wonder if the adherents of the "religion of peace" have any more holiday cheer to share.

Glad you and yours are safe given your enjoyment of Berlin's attractions.

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 08:57 PM

Appears to have been a truck attack into a Xmas market here in Berlin this evening....am lucky.... we were there this afternoon to avoid the large evening crowds....no barriers as the market is bordered by two major roads..

Terror attack not being ruled out....several dead and a high number of injured being first reported......by the Berlin Fire Department

BREAKING: Driver of the truck is on the run according to German media sources

Lorry crash at Christmas market at Breitscheidplatz in Berlin is deliberate attack, German police say

Multiple reports are saying multiple figures..right now trending is 9 killed and 50 plus injured....

A mob of #Americans now tries to tell me, that because Germans aren't reacting like a hysteric mob, #Germany is in trouble... ... ...

Those speculating should note that Germany already experienced three attacks this year. They only had a marginal impact on political polls

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 09:01 PM

Great reporting on this, by the way.

Between Ankara and Berlin, I wonder if the adherents of the "religion of peace" have any more holiday cheer to share.

Glad you and yours are safe given your enjoyment of Berlin's attractions.

What is sad is that many Syrian refugees are in the city and largely very supportive of German efforts and actually quite secular.....and have vocally pushed back on the conservative Turkish mosques....

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 09:04 PM

This is coming via the Berliner Police this evening....

PolizeiBerlinEinsatz
✔
@PolizeiBerlin_E
Bitte helfen Sie uns. Bleiben Sie zu Hause & verbreiten Sie keine Gerchte. Folgen Sie uns hier fr wichtige Infosl. #Breitscheidplatz

Please help us....stay at home...do not spread rumors...follow us at this twitter feed for further information.....

Truck driver is dead...being now reported.....

PolizeiBerlinEinsatz
✔
@PolizeiBerlin_E
Der Beifahrer des LKW, der am #Breitscheidplatz in den Weihnachtsmarkt gefahren ist, verstarb vor Ort.

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 09:09 PM

Reuters Top News
✔
@Reuters
Nine dead after truck plows into crowd at Berlin Christmas market. Follow our live coverage:
http://reut.rs/2hSy7Ih

OUTLAW 09

12-19-2016, 09:12 PM

I think that you are conflating Russia’s official declared nuclear doctrine with controversial statements made by Russian officials, politicians and analysts in recent years.

Russia’s 2010 doctrine was the first to declare that Russia could respond to conventional aggression with nuclear weapons, although the idea had been gaining ground since 2003 or earlier. Putin is keenly aware of Russia’s conventional weakness and so I do not believe that he ever believed that a NATO-Russia conflict would not escalate to the nuclear level. Russia has used nuclear weapons in its exercises since 2000 and it has increasingly relied upon nuclear deterrence. Tactical nuclear weapons do not negate MAD (initially based upon strategic bombers rather than ballistic missiles); rather, they provide more options, or what McNamara referred to as a “flexible response”.

Note that during the period of American conventional weakness, the US Army deployed nuclear-armed recoilless rifles and US nuclear doctrine post-New Look/Massive Retaliation provided for degrees of nuclear escalation e.g. tactical first, counterforce first, etc. I feel like a broken record here, but the similarities between how US and Russian/Soviet nuclear doctrine is predicated upon conventional capability should be very apparent.

According to Mark Galeotti, the concept of “nuclear de-escalation” is not taken seriously by the General Staff or Ministry of Defense.

Putin does not believe in “nuclear de-escalation”.

Firstly, there is the issue of the target of the tactical warhead strike. Would Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in the Baltic, Black or North Seas as a demonstration that inflicts no casualties? Would Russia strike at a civilian target such as Warsaw or Bucharest? Would Russia strike at a military target? Putin may be a gambler but he would be insane to think that NATO would tolerate nuclear mass murder in East-Central Europe. As for military targets, how can Putin know how the French, British or American people will respond if their soldiers are among the victims? Each has separate nuclear C2, and each could decide to respond with nuclear weapons. If the victims are all Polish soldiers and the attack is unanswered, the US-led alliance will not survive accusations of “Western betrayal” (for the third time in the Poles’ view).

Secondly, NATO can hammer Russia with conventional stand-off weapons and destroy the Russian state without resorting to nuclear weapons, and this would first involve attacking Russia’s tactical nuclear assets. Nor is NATO reliant upon stand-off weapons given the stealth and capacity of the B-2s. This would allow NATO to secure the moral high ground and escalation dominance, as Putin will be forced to respond while knowing that NATO is still retaining its tactical and strategic nuclear capabilities and is now on full alert.

Thirdly, the enormous risks of “nuclear de-escalation”, given that neither the Americans nor Russians ever believed that a limited nuclear war was possible or a conventional-only war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact or Russia, what objective would be worth it?

I also believe that you are confusing the SS-21 for the SS-26 Iskander…

Russia has only turned up the heat when it felt that it was pushing back against NATO or the EU, first in Georgia and then in Ukraine. It is not as though Russia has been creating a second Kaliningrad in Transnistria, which would allow Putin to menace Russia’s southeastern flank.

For someone well-versed in BMD, it surprises me that you mistook the Tochkha for the Iskander, and that you are conflating the GMD and the Patriot.

The US-Polish agreement under Bush was to install a number of GBIs in Poland of the same variant deployed in Alaska and California. In addition, Poland would receive PAC-3 batteries for air defense, which it considered of far more importance. Basically, the US wanted to create a branch of GMD in Poland to counter ballistic missiles, while Poland wanted an advanced SAM to mainly counter Russian aircraft. The GBI uses ERIS technology from the SDI, whereas PAC-3 uses ERINT. Given the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, how could Russia not see the expansion of GMD to Central Europe as an attempt to target Russian ICBMs?

THAAD also uses ERIS technology but is more intended for SRBMs and IRBMs rather than ICBMs. Obviously, there are developments to fuse GMD, THAAD, Aegis BMD and Patriot into one layered system that can protect against all types of ballistic missiles and even cruise missiles in the future, with the missiles complemented by railguns and lasers. This ties in with your point above about the importance of the various programs' radars (e.g. PAC-3) to other systems.

BTW...SS22...actually in the 80s.....was the reason for the cruise missile stationing....debates under Reagan.....

CrowBat

12-20-2016, 07:46 AM

"Two" SyAAF SA 342 Gazelles Shot Down (2016-12-19) (http://luftwaffeas.blogspot.co.at/2016/12/two-syaaf-sa-342-gazelles-shot-down.html)

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 10:25 AM

I think that you are conflating Russia’s official declared nuclear doctrine with controversial statements made by Russian officials, politicians and analysts in recent years.

Not conflating the Russia use of tactical nuclear first strike....four major Russian exercises of 40,000 plus tactical nuclear missiles after analysis reflected planned strikes against Copenhagen...Warsaw and Stockholm....

Tactical nuclear first strike as a "de-escalation move" is in fact published Russian doctrine since 2013....especially mentioned in that doctrine is the striking of a major city....

REFERENCE BMD....you will have noticed that I tap dance around a n umber of your questions which are actually in the area of classified especially training scenarios...actual TTPs and actual coordination between other allied Ad systems and the BMD....this when your critique for being non specific there is a reason....you mention actually far more that is necessary....

Azor

12-20-2016, 03:56 PM

Not conflating the Russia use of tactical nuclear first strike....four major Russian exercises of 40,000 plus tactical nuclear missiles after analysis reflected planned strikes against Copenhagen...Warsaw and Stockholm....

Tactical nuclear first strike as a "de-escalation move" is in fact published Russian doctrine since 2013....especially mentioned in that doctrine is the striking of a major city....

REFERENCE BMD....you will have noticed that I tap dance around a n umber of your questions which are actually in the area of classified especially training scenarios...actual TTPs and actual coordination between other allied Ad systems and the BMD....this when your critique for being non specific there is a reason....you mention actually far more that is necessary....

I still believe that the entire concept of "nuclear de-escalation" is simply part and parcel of Putin's nuclear saber-rattling, and yes it was around prior to 2013.

I agree that Russian nuclear provocations are far worse than anything during the Cold War, but then again they were conventionally superior then.

Putin seems to be a fan of Nixon's "madman" approach...

Points noted RE: BMD :)

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 04:06 PM

Moscow
In joint statemnt, Iran,Russia & Turkey say they wl fight jointly against ISIS & Al-Nusra, separating them from armd oposition groups

BUT WAIT....Russia and Iran and Iraq have been fighting largely FSA...not IS....so this statement means exactly what....not worth the time it took to post this as it is lies to include those statements by Turkey who claimed that Aleppo was a "red line" repeatedly....

Iranian FM gives a weird smile after Turkish FM calls for an end to support Shiite militia groups "like Hezbollah" in Syria

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 04:08 PM

Palmyra: #ISIS destroying #Assad bulldozer and 23mm autocannon with ATGM strikes at #Tiyas Airbase.

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 04:46 PM

As with Ukraine, the US no longer involved even in a token fashion in multilateral efforts in Syria.

Known #Syrian spotter reports over #Russian 100 vehicles, including 37 suspected T-90s heading to #Hmymim presumably from Ropuchas at Tartus

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 04:47 PM

An elegy for #Aleppo: the hope of audacity, and why the #Syria war is far from over, by @hxhassan
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/18/aleppo-elegy-for-doomed-city-syria-assad?CMP=share_btn_tw#

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 04:55 PM

So, check this: a sectarian militiaman who chopped up a body he's burned is glorified by a sectarian UK-based Iraqi as a symbol of tolerance

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 04:59 PM

This is in reference to the Syrian seven year old social media commenter...who has made it out of Aleppo........

EXCLUSIVE: @AlabedBana's mother talks about the latest situation in #Aleppo 19-12-2016
https://youtu.be/tVjmfd4NPXc

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:00 PM

AFP news agency ‏@AFP 8h
8 hours ago

#BREAKING 25,000 evacuated from east Aleppo so far: Red Cross

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:03 PM

Russia’s influence has risen but Iran is the real winner in Aleppo
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/17/aleppo-fall-syria-iran-winner-influence-analysis?CMP=share_btn_tw#

Palmyra: Interesting that #ISIS used no SVBIEDs at #Tiyas Airbase during the last days.

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:06 PM

Clear shots of Syria'n navy "Tir II" Fast attack craft#(FAC) (Iranian made "IPS 16 /18 class) Likely fitted with iranian Noor AShM (C-802)

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:23 PM

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton

Latest from the State Department: going to ask #Russia to enforce Sulaymani's travel ban, not sure #Iran is being constructive in #Syria.

One of Qassem Sulaymani's travel-ban violations was to Moscow to plan out the assaults in #Syria whose ruins he is now photographed among.

But doubtless, U.S. efforts to have the "UN Security Council" (China and Russia) get serious on int'l law will work

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:30 PM

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister
NEW - Part 1/2 of my analysis on recent events in #Syria:

“#Aleppo has fallen: But the Conflict is Far from Over”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/aleppo-has-fallen-but-the-conflict-is-far-from-over_us_58592922e4b0d5f48e165291?ncid=engmodushpmg 00000004#…

NEW - Part 2/2 looks at potential new opposition mergers &/or splits:

“Armed Opposition Seeks to Redefine Itself”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/aleppo-has-fallen-armed-opposition-seeks-to-redefine_us_58592a35e4b0d5f48e165292?ncid=engmodus hpmg00000004#…

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:34 PM

It’s concerning when a U.S. Congress member uses *anti-American* conspiracy sites to publicize her views.

Look at the “related articles”!

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:37 PM

Tulsi Gabbard
Verified account
‏@TulsiGabbard
.@neeratanden should support my bill to stop US giving money/arms to groups allied w/al-Qaeda/ISIS. This will end Syrian humanitarian crisis

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister
Charles Lister Retweeted Tulsi Gabbard
If you don’t understand the details, don’t comment on the subject.

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:41 PM

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton Dec 18
#IS biography of its deceased #2 makes clear how extensive and active the jihadi networks were in Saddam's Iraq.

The Islamic State’s Official Biography of the Caliph’s#Deputy

By#Kyle Orton#(@KyleWOrton) on December 18, 2016

https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2016/12/18/the-islamic-states-official-biography-of-the-caliphs-deputy/

Really needs to be reread....a number of times

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:43 PM

CrowBat.....saving the ATGMs or has the US stopped all TOW supplies??????

No recorded Syrian rebel ATGM launches since 9 December:
https://justpaste.it/December2016AT

Mod adds: link not working.

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:46 PM

FSA Al-Mu'tasim Brigade detecting and clearing mines in North #Aleppo, near Al-Bab

Azor

12-20-2016, 05:48 PM

The sudden recapture by Islamic State (IS) of the Syrian desert town of Palmyra has caused embarrassment and recriminations in Moscow at a time when the Russian strategy in Syria seemed to be working to plan and victory was close at hand. Opposition rebel forces in Aleppo have been routed and their defenses smashed, unable to hold their ground against the relentless assault by forces loyal to president Bashar al-Assad, together with the Iranian-led and financed Shia militias from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Lebanese Hezbollah, supported by overwhelming Russian-organized and supplied firepower.

On December 13, a ceasefire was announced to allow for the remaining rebels to surrender and leave Aleppo, but it did not hold. Pro-Assad forces continued to pound the city, supported by the Russian military, which accused the rebels of breaking the ceasefire (militarynews.ru, December 14). Turkey intervened with the Kremlin to prevent the final extermination of the opposition and civilians cramped in the several square kilometers of Aleppo still under rebel control. President Vladimir Putin apparently promised to allow the rebels a free way out (militarynews.ru, December 14). Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov described the talks with US officials on Syria as “fruitless chatter” (besplodnye posidelki), accusing the US of trying “to delay us in order to save the terrorists.” According to Lavrov, in the future Moscow will be working with Turkey instead (RIA Novosti, December 14).

Russia’s most spectacular success in Syria was the capture last March of the ancient desert town of Palmyra, which had been under IS control since May 2015. Russian bombers, helicopters and special forces assaulted Palmyra, while sappers removed mines left by IS. Last May, a major gala symphony concert was organized by Moscow in the ancient ruins of the Palmyra Theater. Hundreds of journalists, artists and dignitaries were specially brought in for the event in order to demonstrate Russia’s success and power. The sudden fall of Palmyra has come as a painful humiliation for Moscow (Kommersant, December 11).

IS forces moved in through the desert, surprised and routed the al-Assad garrison in Palmyra. Russia deployed massive airpower: 64 Russian bombing sorties were reported and long-range sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles were fired, but the al-Assad forces fled. Oil and natural gas fields in the vicinity of Palmyra were apparently also overtaken (militarynews, December 11).

Army General (rt.) Yuri Baluyevsky, the former Chief of the General Staff and first deputy defense minister, harshly criticized Russian and Syrian generals, who failed to anticipate the IS offensive: “A total failure of intelligence and military planning.” According to Baluyevsky, it was totally wrong to follow US advice to announce pauses in fighting and seek ceasefires (Interfax, December 11). The Russian command announced that some 5,000 IS fighters attacked Palmyra, but this apparently is a serious exaggeration. Massing such a force under persistent bombing in the open desert is suicidal, and the movement of large troop numbers would have been easily detected.

Lavrov accused the United States of allowing IS fighters to leave the besieged Iraqi city of Mosul undisturbed and giving them an open corridor to attack Palmyra (militarynews.ru, December 14). According to Russian military sources, IS fighters in Palmyra captured cashes of arms and munitions (Kommersant, December 11). The low quality of al-Assad’s troops and the lack of good infantry have been one of the main problems of the Russian campaign in Syria. For the decisive offensive in Aleppo, the radical Shia organization Hezbollah reportedly moved into Syria two additional brigades (one heavy armor and the other—light), increasing its overall presence in Syria to some 15,000 (Izvestia, November 16). In Aleppo, the Hezbollah fighters were the tip of the spear, but there are not enough of them for all the Syrian fronts.

The Palmyra debacle came after another embarrassing setback: the failed Syrian mission of Russia’s only aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which has lost two jet fighters (a Su-33 and a MiG-29K) because of apparent technical failures of the carrier’s landing gears. The Kuznetsov’s jets are not specifically designed to attack land targets and cannot take off from deck with any serious payload, because the Kuznetsov has no plane catapult. Jets sent from the deck of the Kuznetsov were reportedly forced to land at the Russian airbase Hmeymim, near Latakia, to rearm and reload. At present, the Kuznetsov is apparently out of action, pending an investigation. Meanwhile, most of its air wing (eight Su-33 and two MiG-29K) have been moved to Hmeymim, which makes little overall military sense (Kommersant, December 8).

The Russian war effort in Syria badly needs an additional source of good infantry to mop up after massive bombardments and afterward hold the “liberated” territory. Obvious sources of recruitment are disgruntled opposition fighters, preferably not religious fanatics who can be turned. Such a strategy worked well in Chechnya in the early 2000s, when massive bombardment broke the moral of the resistance and some switched sides. A special inter-service group is now operating in Syria—the Center for Reconciliation (Tsentr Primirenya), trying to split the opposition and to recruit fighters. According to this center: “Some 2,215 fighters have surrendered in Aleppo after the offensive began and 2,137 have been pardoned” (militarynews.ru, December 12).

Still, the acute deficit of reliable infantry is seriously hampering operations, and this may eventually lead to more direct Russian involvement in ground operations. Reportedly, a contingent of Chechen troops has been sent to Syria (EDM, December 8). Chechnya’s strongman Ramzan Kadyrov has disowned these special forces—which is understandable as they are not “Kadyrovtsy,” but the troops of his nemesis, the ”Yamadayevtsy” and Kokiyevtsy,” also pro-Russian, but anti-Kadyrov—that have been manning two special companies in the federal army (kadyrov_95/, December 8). Four reinforced companies of these Muslim troops are reportedly already deployed in Syria as military police—three companies of Chechens and one mixed with other Russian Sunni Muslims. These Sunni-Russian military policemen (more than 500) will reportedly be deployed as occupation troops in Aleppo to man checkpoints, and, possibly in understanding with Ankara, to guard Aleppo’s Sunni population against possible Shia militia excesses (Gazeta.ru, December 8).

State TV channel “Rossya” in its flagship Sunday news program Vesti Nedely showed footage and interviews of Russian Special Forces directly involved in the fighting on the frontline in Syria, “killing radicals” (vesti.ru, December 11). It seems mission creep may be taking over as more Russian soldiers are getting involved in ground operations and are now in harm’s way.

https://jamestown.org/program/russian-mission-syria-beset-problems-despite-victory-aleppo/

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:49 PM

Interesting interview from anonymous member "Zaslon" unit, which protect Russian ambassadors in dangerous countries
https://twitter.com/Varfolomeev/statuses/811254783164092416#

OUTLAW 09

12-20-2016, 05:53 PM

JUST IN: Russian foreign ministry says Geneva talks on Syria have hit dead end due to ultimatums from Syrian opposition in exile

Azor

12-20-2016, 07:28 PM

davidbfpo

12-20-2016, 11:00 PM

Watched the evening news on the UK Channel Four (C4) tonight (which often is far better than the BBC, ITV & Sky) and there was a comprehensive report on Syria, followed by two "talking heads" interviewed - a Mr Babich, from Russia's Sputnik TV and a UK journalist.

The C4 reporter stated:
Iran creates the facts on the ground here now'.

Then drew attention to the footage of Shia villagers (from two besieged villages near Aleppo) arriving in Aleppo that the footage showed a celebrating fighter waving three flags: Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. Adding, with my emphasis:
The battle is increasingly sectarian and Assad is now not resisting this.

Then Mr Babich commented on the tripartite Moscow talks between Iran, Russia and Turkey; citing the Turkish Defence Minister:
Taking Aleppo was a liberation.

C4 ran a small clip of the Iranian Foreign Minister too:
There is no military solution, only a political solution.

Azor

12-21-2016, 02:38 AM

CrowBat.....saving the ATGMs or has the US stopped all TOW supplies??????

No recorded Syrian rebel ATGM launches since 9 December:
https://justpaste.it/December2016AT

The link isn't working...

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 05:34 AM

Unfortunately, Gabbard's opinions are the consequence of American leaders marching to folly and manipulating the American people into consenting.

What these leaders never took into consideration was that Americans would only acquiesce to so many wars of choice.

An intervention in Syria may well be a worthy cause, but that bullet was used up in Libya on behalf of Cameron and Sarkozy.

Are Gabbard and her fellow travelers responsible for the atrocities in Syria? No. Who might be more to blame?

Cameron and Hollande come to mind, as ingrates who depended upon US military and diplomatic support in Libya and Mali, respectively, but then shied away from answering Assad's use of chemical weapons at Ghouta.

I would argue that she is in fact is responsible just as is Rohrbacher and company in Ukraine...if one seriously takes a close look at what lobbying funds have flowed into say Rohrbacher's reelection campaign coffers...and or monies received for speaking engagements and or RT interviews....

The Obama actions in Libya is an interesting event.....while Obama argues that it was the UK and France......I was involved in the actually targeting side and tracked the daily targeting lists......the initial fighting was carried yes by the US but the US maintained afterward the key intel support...refueling and logistics while NATO continued to fly the missions....

In some aspects it was similar to the Obama red line in Syria..the targeting team did their work...set the target lists and then waited and waited and waited and then waited some more....when nothing came from the WH they packed and were ready to fly back to the States....

THEN suddenly the WH signaled and they went to work.....that long waiting IMHO had absolutely nothing to do with UK and France which had pushed to begin with...IMO...it had to do with the foot dragging by Obama just as he did in 2013 with the Syrian gas attack red line.

In some aspects when one is honest...Libya was a live fire exercise for NATO........yes there were reasons to move against Libya as there was well over 300 tons of actual deadly chemical weapons and precursors that had not be removed from Libya...but in the end there was no plan for the "after time".....just as there was never any comments in the US as to what happens if Assad remains in power.....all talked about he being removed...but never about what if he remains and how does it then effect the fighting...

BTW...Obama's failed red line in effect allowed Aleppo to happen as Assad from that moment onwards knew he would never be removed...

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 05:43 AM

How Russia's disinformation campaign rolled up the U.S. gov't
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-disinformation-analysis-idUSKBN1492PA#

CrowBat

12-21-2016, 09:31 AM

https://jamestown.org/program/russian-mission-syria-beset-problems-despite-victory-aleppo/
A fine article, but can't really agree with this paragraph:

The Palmyra debacle came after another embarrassing setback: the failed Syrian mission of Russia’s only aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which has lost two jet fighters (a Su-33 and a MiG-29K) because of apparent technical failures of the carrier’s landing gears.
Yup, it was snapping arrestor wires that seem to be causing both problems.

That is: a combination of poor-quality arrestor wires with lack of experience and exhaustion of pilots. They flew quite a lot around the time two aircraft were lost, and it seems the Su-33 that was lost landed some 3-4 metres off the centreline: this caused the arrestor wire to snap when it was hit by the hook...

Is this 'embarrassing'? If so, then because of comparisons to the USN: this wouldn't permit anything similar to happen on the same carrier in a matter of a week.

So far, 'OK pass'. But, this one - not:

The Kuznetsov’s jets are not specifically designed to attack land targets and cannot take off from deck with any serious payload, because the Kuznetsov has no plane catapult.Irrelevant.

1.) Su-33s and MiG-29Ks are both equipped with the SVP-24, and compatible with a wide range of dumb bombs, plus some PGMs.

2.) The stories about them being unable to launch with a full payload seem to be lots of ballooney; even if not, that's irrelevant since Russian aircraft underway over Syria are seldom carrying more than 2 or 4 bombs. And those from Kuznetsov were regularly shown carrying at least two (and then two of 500kg calibre). Means, this issue is also irrelevant, at least there's no reason to complain or criticise Russians for this.

Jets sent from the deck of the Kuznetsov were reportedly forced to land at the Russian airbase Hmeymim, near Latakia, to rearm and reload.Yup, saves the gear and pilots to have a handy air base nearby: why forcing them to make two or three arrested landings on carrier a day, if they can short-cut the way back, land and re-load ammo and fly another mission within a shorter period of time?

At present, the Kuznetsov is apparently out of action, pending an investigation. Meanwhile, most of its air wing (eight Su-33 and two MiG-29K) have been moved to Hmeymim, which makes little overall military sense (Kommersant, December 8).Would like to see some better-supported evidence for this but reports from Kommersant. I haven't followed Russian ops over Syria the last 4-5 days, but - after refuelling off Tartous, on 7-9 December - Kuznetsov was still launching air strikes as of 12 December, just for example.

CrowBat

12-21-2016, 09:33 AM

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton

Latest from the State Department: going to ask #Russia to enforce Sulaymani's travel ban, not sure #Iran is being constructive in #Syria.'Not sure'....? :rolleyes:

On what planet are all these people living....

CrowBat

12-21-2016, 09:41 AM

CrowBat.....saving the ATGMs or has the US stopped all TOW supplies??????

No recorded Syrian rebel ATGM launches since 9 December:
https://justpaste.it/December2016AT

Mod adds: link not working.
Most of the TOWs in question were not supplied by the USA, anyway. But, yes - and as explained already 2-3 times, Oblabla took care to finally block even that kind of support for the FSyA.

Namely, keep in mind that the TOWs are fired only by units vetted by the CIA or by the DIA/Pentagon. Since the latter cut-off any kind of cooperation with anybody else but the NSyA last year in October (and then squandered that group in that pointless attack on the Daesh in al-Bukamal, mid this year), the CIA was forced to impose a ban on providing supplies to the Southern Front (group) of FSyA. Then a moratorium to support of FSyA groups in Idlib and Aleppo was imposed too; Turks bought nearly 5,000 combatants from that area to go fighting for them in al-Bab area.

...and thus nearly 20 major FSyA groups in Idlib/Aleppo are forced to sit around and do nothing.

At the same time, the flow of supplies from Turkey to the JFS and Ahrar just can't work any better. Really: Qataris are paying for everything they need, Russians are so kind to ignore their convoys running all the way through Idlib; Assadists are still busy with Aleppo (and now with Palmyra too), and 'Muricans are looking the other way too.

And, 'oh what a surprise' then, when FSyA units in question are left without a choice but to intensify their cooperation with the JFS, the depots of which are meanwhile bursting full of all sorts or ammo?

'Even more surprise' when 9 major Islamist groups in Idlib/Aleppo were 'contemplated' (by Qataris) into an union with the JFS (thanks whomever, their leaders are still sane enough to refuse).

All along the motto: either you're jihadist or Assadist, there is no third solution. Because Assad said so, Oblabla said so, the Pentagon said so, and Putin said so.

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 02:45 PM

The 7-year-old Syrian girl who tweeted from Aleppo met with Turkey's president
http://read.bi/2hckyXy

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 02:46 PM

Evacuation of civilians and fighters from east #Aleppo and Kafarya/Fu'a in last stages with temperature dropping well below zero.

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 02:50 PM

JUST IN: Kremlin says nearly all communication channels between U.S. and Russia are frozen: RIA

US issues a series of new sanctions...due to Syria...eastern Ukraine heavy fighting and the Russia cyber attacks....

Impressive long-read piece by @aronlund on the complex dynamics surrounding the war in Eastern Ghouta.
https://tcf.org/content/report/into-the-tunnels/#

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 03:36 PM

Heads up outgoing Obama and incoming Trump.....at some point someone has to do somethin about this....

Hezbollah fighting in Syria with U.S. weapons supplied to Lebanese army, IDF says
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.760464#

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 03:49 PM

"One doesn't become a Soldier in a week - it takes training, study and discipline." - Daniel Inouye

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 05:29 PM

We're used to terror groups claiming credit for attacks. Moments ago, al-Qaeda's non affiliate JFS formerly JaN in Syria DENIED involvement in Turkey plot

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 05:46 PM

Aleppo: #FSA & Turkish army retreated from Sheikh Aqil Hill after #ISIS launched a counter-attack with SVBIED. #Al_Bab

My friend took these photos in east Aleppo today. Thousands still await displacement. They've run out of food & it's snowing.

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 05:55 PM

.@anneapplebaum on how Kremlin disinfo targeted her. (Was proud to have been included in some of these attacks):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/i-was-a-victim-of-a-russian-smear-campaign-i-understand-the-power-of-fake-news/2016/12/20/0dfdc2aa-c606-11e6-8bee-54e800ef2a63_story.html?utm_term=.d5123309e8dd#com ments#

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 07:14 PM

BREAKING 14 Turkish soldiers killed, 33 wounded, and 138 #ISIS militants killed in #AlBab , Turkish military stated #Turkey

ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG)
✔
@anadoluagency
#BREAKING Erdogan: Al-Bab is completely besieged by our army and Free Syrian Army

Raqqa: Heavy fighting between #ISIS and #YPG at #Jabal village northwest of #Tabqa Dam. 15+ #YPG fighters were killed.

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 07:51 PM

RT's English-language social video operation, which doesn't mention affiliation to Kremlin propaganda, has a fake news take going semi viral

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 07:53 PM

Aleppo: Many civilians and rebels are still in besieged Eastern #Aleppo. It's not clear if all rebels will leave. Probably not.

Aleppo: 1000s of rebels and civilians decided to stay in besieged Eastern #Aleppo.

OUTLAW 09

12-21-2016, 08:15 PM

Palmyra: #ISIS has repelled all attempts by pro-#Assad forces to advance at #Tiyas Airbase today.

Azor

12-21-2016, 10:21 PM

I would argue that she is in fact is responsible just as is Rohrbacher and company in Ukraine...if one seriously takes a close look at what lobbying funds have flowed into say Rohrbacher's reelection campaign coffers...and or monies received for speaking engagements and or RT interviews....

The Obama actions in Libya is an interesting event.....while Obama argues that it was the UK and France......I was involved in the actually targeting side and tracked the daily targeting lists......the initial fighting was carried yes by the US but the US maintained afterward the key intel support...refueling and logistics while NATO continued to fly the missions....

In some aspects it was similar to the Obama red line in Syria..the targeting team did their work...set the target lists and then waited and waited and waited and then waited some more....when nothing came from the WH they packed and were ready to fly back to the States....

THEN suddenly the WH signaled and they went to work.....that long waiting IMHO had absolutely nothing to do with UK and France which had pushed to begin with...IMO...it had to do with the foot dragging by Obama just as he did in 2013 with the Syrian gas attack red line.

In some aspects when one is honest...Libya was a live fire exercise for NATO........yes there were reasons to move against Libya as there was well over 300 tons of actual deadly chemical weapons and precursors that had not be removed from Libya...but in the end there was no plan for the "after time".....just as there was never any comments in the US as to what happens if Assad remains in power.....all talked about he being removed...but never about what if he remains and how does it then effect the fighting...

BTW...Obama's failed red line in effect allowed Aleppo to happen as Assad from that moment onwards knew he would never be removed...

Gabbard isn’t Rohrabacher.

With respect to Libya, my understanding of allied involvement is this:

The US conducted most of the SEAD/DEAD campaign and enforced the NFZ
The US provided ordnance and logistical support (e.g. refueling) for British and French forces
The US provided C4ISR support for the British and French, including targeting
The US inserted SOF/CIA teams into Libya to secure, seize and/or destroy CBRN materials
French and British aircraft attacked loyalist ground targets NOT THE US
The French supplied arms to the rebels
The Qataris embedded special forces with the rebels

Is this correct? If so, then Libya was an Anglo-French operation to oust Qaddafi, a redux of Suez in some ways. Certainly, Qaddafi could have won the war or at least contained the rebellion without airpower, and survived as Hussein did. The Anglo-French-Qatari thumb on the scales in favor of the rebels, is what brought about his downfall.

It is easy for the US to knock over other states, but it is very difficult to find a political solution, because that requires a whole-of-government approach as well as in-depth knowledge and ties to the country in question.

When the British Army was used to enforce peace in Northern Ireland in the late 1960s, the British had no understanding of the region, apart from the Loyalist/Unionist perspective. London had no inkling that their soldiers were initially welcomed by the Catholics, and this is a land which London had ruled or had had relations with for over 800 years prior.

It took years for British intelligence to understand the situation, and yet the Americans were going to remake the Iraqi, Libyan and possibly Syrian states overnight?

Prior to Ghouta in 2013, Obama had 2 choices:

Intervene directly against Assad, and risk the use and/or proliferation of Syria’s CW stockpile, which would require ground forces to secure (75,000 estimated)
Do not intervene directly and watch Assad commit war crimes using conventional weapons, but know that the CW are secure (Assad’s last resort)

After the CW deal with Russia, Obama had 2 choices again:

Intervene directly against Assad, violating agreements made with Russia and encouraging other tyrants that WMDs are their only safeguard
Do not intervene, but know that the CW are destroyed

Azor

12-21-2016, 11:17 PM

A fine article, but can't really agree with this paragraph:

Yup, it was snapping arrestor wires that seem to be causing both problems.

That is: a combination of poor-quality arrestor wires with lack of experience and exhaustion of pilots. They flew quite a lot around the time two aircraft were lost, and it seems the Su-33 that was lost landed some 3-4 metres off the centreline: this caused the arrestor wire to snap when it was hit by the hook...

Is this 'embarrassing'? If so, then because of comparisons to the USN: this wouldn't permit anything similar to happen on the same carrier in a matter of a week.

So far, 'OK pass'. But, this one - not:
Irrelevant.

1.) Su-33s and MiG-29Ks are both equipped with the SVP-24, and compatible with a wide range of dumb bombs, plus some PGMs.

2.) The stories about them being unable to launch with a full payload seem to be lots of ballooney; even if not, that's irrelevant since Russian aircraft underway over Syria are seldom carrying more than 2 or 4 bombs. And those from Kuznetsov were regularly shown carrying at least two (and then two of 500kg calibre). Means, this issue is also irrelevant, at least there's no reason to complain or criticise Russians for this.

Yup, saves the gear and pilots to have a handy air base nearby: why forcing them to make two or three arrested landings on carrier a day, if they can short-cut the way back, land and re-load ammo and fly another mission within a shorter period of time?

Would like to see some better-supported evidence for this but reports from Kommersant. I haven't followed Russian ops over Syria the last 4-5 days, but - after refuelling off Tartous, on 7-9 December - Kuznetsov was still launching air strikes as of 12 December, just for example.

Oh come now! Can't we poke a little fun at the Russians? After all, we can't let their poor man's Desert Storm steal the show...

Azor

12-21-2016, 11:20 PM

Most of the TOWs in question were not supplied by the USA, anyway. But, yes - and as explained already 2-3 times, Oblabla took care to finally block even that kind of support for the FSyA.

Namely, keep in mind that the TOWs are fired only by units vetted by the CIA or by the DIA/Pentagon. Since the latter cut-off any kind of cooperation with anybody else but the NSyA last year in October (and then squandered that group in that pointless attack on the Daesh in al-Bukamal, mid this year), the CIA was forced to impose a ban on providing supplies to the Southern Front (group) of FSyA. Then a moratorium to support of FSyA groups in Idlib and Aleppo was imposed too; Turks bought nearly 5,000 combatants from that area to go fighting for them in al-Bab area.

...and thus nearly 20 major FSyA groups in Idlib/Aleppo are forced to sit around and do nothing.

At the same time, the flow of supplies from Turkey to the JFS and Ahrar just can't work any better. Really: Qataris are paying for everything they need, Russians are so kind to ignore their convoys running all the way through Idlib; Assadists are still busy with Aleppo (and now with Palmyra too), and 'Muricans are looking the other way too.

And, 'oh what a surprise' then, when FSyA units in question are left without a choice but to intensify their cooperation with the JFS, the depots of which are meanwhile bursting full of all sorts or ammo?

'Even more surprise' when 9 major Islamist groups in Idlib/Aleppo were 'contemplated' (by Qataris) into an union with the JFS (thanks whomever, their leaders are still sane enough to refuse).

All along the motto: either you're jihadist or Assadist, there is no third solution. Because Assad said so, Oblabla said so, the Pentagon said so, and Putin said so.

So Operation Timber Sycamore has to to a halt, or has CIA-vetted supplies become a trickle?

If the CIA takes off, will Turkey, Qatar, KSA and Jordan start supplying the rebels willy-nilly, or will the FSA still be sucking hind ###?

CrowBat

12-22-2016, 09:55 AM

Oh come now! Can't we poke a little fun at the Russians? After all, we can't let their poor man's Desert Storm steal the show...
I plead guilty of being a party crusher: I'm bitterly critical to everybody and everything (including myself, first and foremost), a humanist naively insistent on fairness, and knowing no fun in regards of all of this. :D

So Operation Timber Sycamore has to to a halt, or has CIA-vetted supplies become a trickle?

If the CIA takes off, will Turkey, Qatar, KSA and Jordan start supplying the rebels willy-nilly, or will the FSA still be sucking hind ###?
To me it appears Oblabla issued a sort of 'stop everything, except affairs related to Kurds' order. I do not have the time to follow this closely enough (busy counting all the sorties flown by Assadists and Russians, and finding out the former DOES HAVE a night-fighting capability, contrary to 'superior intelligence' supposedly provided by DIA, GRU, Mossad/Aman and Mars People to the politicians and the media), so can't say when and where exactly.

But, fact on the ground is: except in regards of providing support for that SDF/PKK/PYD/YPG conglomerate in northern Syria, and fighting Daesh, the USA are meanwhile completely out of the game. EDIT: and reading various of US media outlets and defence-affairs-related-blogs confirms my long-time standpoint that there's neither intelligent life in the DC, nor any relation to reality in this entire branch in the USA.

Jordanians ditto. They're so corrupt, so short-sighted, and so overdependent on the USA for own survival, they prefer to work with Assadists and Russians if it has to be, just not with any Syrian insurgents or their foreign backers. Means: there's no way they would - for example - let Saudis use Jordan to re-supply the Southern Front in Syria.

Turks are taking over because a) they've been left alone by all of the West (which, no doubt, is largely Erdo's fault), and b) they're the crucial 'base' for provision of aid to insurgency and jihadists in northern Syria. That plus their own (primarily anti-PKK-related-) interests is putting them in a unique position. They can condition what is provided to whom, they can force various of factions in Syria into negotiations - even if they're far from being biggest sponsors or the most influential characters around.

Qataris play their own games...which I'm sure even Allah cannot fully understand.

...but it's the Saudis that are making me particularly curious: they're really much too silent for my taste the last few months. Even more so in the light of JAI's loss of control and influence over most of Eastern Ghouta. Wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing some 'tremendous news' from them, starting with 00.01hrs on 21 January 2017.

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 12:19 PM

ISIS blew up a Regime T-72 with an #ATGM in outskirts of #Tiyas Airbase amidst continued clashes in area.

EuphratesShield, N. Aleppo: TSK M60T embedded with FSA 51st Division shelling IS positions in al-Bab with 120mm M325 HEAT-MP-T ammunition.

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 06:43 PM

Gabbard isn’t Rohrabacher.

With respect to Libya, my understanding of allied involvement is this:

The US conducted most of the SEAD/DEAD campaign and enforced the NFZ
The US provided ordnance and logistical support (e.g. refueling) for British and French forces
The US provided C4ISR support for the British and French, including targeting
The US inserted SOF/CIA teams into Libya to secure, seize and/or destroy CBRN materials
French and British aircraft attacked loyalist ground targets NOT THE US
The French supplied arms to the rebels
The Qataris embedded special forces with the rebels

Is this correct? If so, then Libya was an Anglo-French operation to oust Qaddafi, a redux of Suez in some ways. Certainly, Qaddafi could have won the war or at least contained the rebellion without airpower, and survived as Hussein did. The Anglo-French-Qatari thumb on the scales in favor of the rebels, is what brought about his downfall.

It is easy for the US to knock over other states, but it is very difficult to find a political solution, because that requires a whole-of-government approach as well as in-depth knowledge and ties to the country in question.

When the British Army was used to enforce peace in Northern Ireland in the late 1960s, the British had no understanding of the region, apart from the Loyalist/Unionist perspective. London had no inkling that their soldiers were initially welcomed by the Catholics, and this is a land which London had ruled or had had relations with for over 800 years prior.

It took years for British intelligence to understand the situation, and yet the Americans were going to remake the Iraqi, Libyan and possibly Syrian states overnight?

Prior to Ghouta in 2013, Obama had 2 choices:

Intervene directly against Assad, and risk the use and/or proliferation of Syria’s CW stockpile, which would require ground forces to secure (75,000 estimated)
Do not intervene directly and watch Assad commit war crimes using conventional weapons, but know that the CW are secure (Assad’s last resort)

After the CW deal with Russia, Obama had 2 choices again:

Intervene directly against Assad, violating agreements made with Russia and encouraging other tyrants that WMDs are their only safeguard
Do not intervene, but know that the CW are destroyed

Putin's support for a powerful military leader in Libya is beginning to undermine the UN-backed government there
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/putin-promotes-libyan-strongman-as-new-ally-after-syria-victory#

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 06:55 PM

CrowBat....appears now the Assad backstabbing of the Kurds has started....

On the day, pro-regime forces expel the last rebel from #Aleppo, #Assad tells part time ally #YPG to leave Aleppo within 8 days

Seems that Iran...Assad...Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shia militias forgot the Kurds currently control 30% of Assad's territory.....and if stabbed in the back might in fact side then with their natural allies....FSA

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 06:57 PM

Humor for the day....

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 07:02 PM

Syria army says it now has full control of east #Aleppo - all civilians/rebels hv left. will #UN monitors still go in?

Azor

12-22-2016, 07:34 PM

I plead guilty of being a party crusher: I'm bitterly critical to everybody and everything (including myself, first and foremost), a humanist naively insistent on fairness, and knowing no fun in regards of all of this. :D

Thanks Captain Bringdown. And yet you get to have Christmas in Vienna if you so choose...

To me it appears Oblabla issued a sort of 'stop everything, except affairs related to Kurds' order. But, fact on the ground is: except in regards of providing support for that SDF/PKK/PYD/YPG conglomerate in northern Syria, and fighting Daesh, the USA are meanwhile completely out of the game.

That seems rather out of place with the holiday spirit. How can Kerry bloviate on about the plight of Aleppo whilst Obama denies the FSA the ATGMs they need to hold off the Assadists?

Despite Outlaw 09 and I's differences, he made a point some time ago that Obama would be blamed by the Sunni Arabs in Syria for turning a blind eye to the depredations of the Teheran-Damascus-Moscow axis and for providing only meager aid. I disagreed at the time, but I think back to the anti-Castro Cubans, who seemed more angry with Kennedy than with Castro after the Bay of Pigs fiasco. It is one thing to have an adversary out to subjugate or kill you; it is quite another to be betrayed.

Jordanians ditto...there's no way they would - for example - let Saudis use Jordan to re-supply the Southern Front in Syria.

In that case, the Saudis and Israelis would have to come to an agreement about using Golan in order to supply the FSA in the south. Given their increased ties in the wake of Obama's withdrawal from the MENA, it would not shock me if this occurred.

Turks are taking over because a) they've been left alone by all of the West (which, no doubt, is largely Erdo's fault), and b) they're the crucial 'base' for provision of aid to insurgency and jihadists in northern Syria. That plus their own (primarily anti-PKK-related-) interests is putting them in a unique position. They can condition what is provided to whom, they can force various of factions in Syria into negotiations - even if they're far from being biggest sponsors or the most influential characters around.

The FSA relying upon Erdogan makes me feel no warmer inside than the Mujaheddin relying upon ul-Haq...

Qataris play their own games...which I'm sure even Allah cannot fully understand.

Indeed. Do the Al-Thanis believe that the MB will be grateful and appoint them to be Protectors of the Two Holy Cities?

...but it's the Saudis that are making me particularly curious: they're really much too silent for my taste the last few months. Even more so in the light of JAI's loss of control and influence over most of Eastern Ghouta. Wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing some 'tremendous news' from them, starting with 00.01hrs on 21 January 2017.

The Saudis puzzle me.

Why haven't they set Balochistan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Lebanon on fire? Are they too preoccupied with Yemen? Their contribution to the OIR air campaign can't be too onerous...

Why did they collude with Obama to crush oil prices in 2014, kicking the crap out of the Russian and Iranian economies (far worse than sanctions), but then act restrained as far as Syria is concerned?

They should be punishing the Russians and Iranians until every last soldier, intelligence officer, mercenary, etc., is withdrawn. What am I missing?

Note that I'm no fan of the Saudis, Wahhabism or their support for Salafism (directly or indirectly), but I have to compare them against Erdogan and Khamanei...

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 10:09 PM

APPEARS now the Russian military is directly involved in war crimes against civilians.....

GRAPHIC execution in Syria: Women & men look like civilians lined up and shot in back. You can hear Russian-speaking men are w/ the killers.

One appears to be actually Russian spetsnaz and or Wagner PMC based on uniform and equipment being carried.....

The video depicts actually civilians..young men in the late teens...women and older men....apparently taken prisoner in Aleppo

Страшное видео из Сирии. Я не знаю кто эти вооруженные люди, говорящие по-русски, и кто эти гражданские, кого они убивают. Но это пиздец.

Trying to acquire video link...seems to have been filmed by the Iraqi Shia and or Hezbollah..tipping Iraqi Shia militia...

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 10:17 PM

Now in Turkey, young Syrian Twitter star dreams of return to Aleppo
http://reut.rs/2hMLjAW

Aleppo: 13.5 million #Syria|ns are now displaced, 4.8 million are refugees.
61% of #Syria’s population. Numbers from the #UN.

Damascus: Rebels have killed #Assad Republican Guard commander Ayham Munif Marouf near #Harasta, Eastern #Ghouta.

Palmyra: #ISIS has captured #Khattab village from #Assad regime. #Homs
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34.905361&lon=37.321758&z=13&m=b#…

Palmyra: #ISIS attacking #Assad regime in #Jubb_al_Jarrah village in Eastern #Homs.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34.838604&lon=37.321758&z=13&m=b#…

Aleppo: #ISIS announced that they have burned 2 Turkish soldiers alive, who were captured at #Al_Bab.
Breaking
#ISIS burnt 2 Turkish Army captives alive near #alBab.
The battle becomes a nightmare for #Turkey.
Must go all-in or all out now.

Aleppo: Video shows aftermath of the failed #FSA/Turkish army attack on #Al_Bab. Weapons, tanks and vehicles captured by #ISIS.

Aleppo: #ISIS has seized 2 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks from the Turkish army at #Al_Bab.

Aleppo: #ISIS with a captured Turkish army FNSS ACV-15 at #Al_Bab.

OUTLAW 09

12-22-2016, 10:55 PM

Raqqa: The #YPG offensive to capture #Jabal village was confirmed repelled. #ISIS published gruesome photos of killed #YPG fighters.

Azor

12-22-2016, 11:13 PM

Chatham House, December 20 (https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/most-syrian-christians-aren-t-backing-assad-or-rebels?utm_source=Chatham%20House&utm_medium=email &utm_campaign=7861346_CH%20Newsletter%20-%2022.12.2016&utm_content=Christians-Title&dm_i=1S3M,4OHUQ,NUT8B5,HHFCA,1):

Contrary to perception, a majority of Christians in Syria have no definite political position in the current struggle.

Christians are often portrayed as supportive of the Syrian regime. There are two main reasons for this: most Christian areas haven’t witnessed demonstrations against the regime and many church leaders have declared their support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The regime and some Islamic groups have encouraged this perception – it serves their aims to frame the struggle in Syria as sectarian.

However, a closer look at the Christian landscape shows a different picture.

I’ve spent the last year interviewing Syrian Christians, both religious and lay, from different Syrian cities: Damascus, Aleppo, Homs and Al-Qamishli. Some of them are still based in Syria, while others have left the country.

There are certainly Christians who support the regime, including senior religious figures, state officials and business people whose interests are invested in it. There are also Christians who have supported the revolution from day one.

Political actors

Five years ago in Damascus, a group of Christians began meeting to discuss how Christians could support the revolution. They rejected the church leadership’s supportive stance toward the Assad regime and drafted a letter emphasizing the values of freedom and dignity for all Syrians, which they delivered to the leaders.

Christian activists have worked to raise awareness among fellow Christians about the revolution and its goals. Among one such group was Bassel Shehadeh, a young film director who went to Homs to document the revolution through video; he was killed in May 2012 as the regime bombed the city. In cities such as Homs, Aleppo and Al-Qamishli, Christian activists have taken part in demonstrations and sit-ins. Many have been arrested, some of them several times.

With the militarization of the revolution, many of these Christians moved toward humanitarian work. Their Christian family names make it easier for them to pass through regime checkpoints to deliver aid to areas under siege.

The Syrian opposition today, including the Free Syrian Army, includes several Christian figures, among them George Sabra, chief negotiator for the High Negotiations Committee, and Abdelahad Steifo, vice president of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces.

Apolitical actors

Yet both of these groups – those who support the regime or the revolution – are a minority among Christians. The majority are neither with the regime nor with the opposition. They look sceptically toward the revolution, particularly after its Islamization – but neither do they support the regime.

One senior religious leader told me how Christians in his area are willing to take up arms to defend their neighbourhoods against attack from armed Islamic groups – but this doesn’t translate into support for the regime. They refuse to serve with the military; they’re unwilling to fight for this regime. Many believe the regime cares little for their safety.

In April 2013, one week before he was kidnapped, Bishop Yohanna Ibrahim, head of the Syriac Orthodox Church in Aleppo, blamed the Syrian regime for failing to deal with the ongoing crisis.

Some Christians who used to support the regime now register their discontent with the poor public services provided by the state and accuse the regime of neglecting Christian areas. A few months ago, another Syrian bishop warned the regime not to test the patience of the Christians in his area because of the deterioration of public services.

Unlike those who support the regime or the revolution, this group has no definite political position in the current struggle. They simply care for their safety and the provision of services.

Shaped by circumstance

Their attitudes toward both regime and opposition are often influenced by two factors. First, the degree of segregation between Muslims and Christians. In areas with a clear segregation between the two communities, as is the case in certain neighbourhoods of Homs and Aleppo, the Christians are closer to the side of the regime. In these areas, it is easier for the regime to push its propaganda labelling the revolutionaries as Sunni terrorists out to massacre minorities. In mixed neighbourhoods however, it is more difficult for Christians to believe their neighbours are terrorists, and they are more likely to understand the reasons of those who chose to revolt.

Second, the threat of Islamic militias also shapes Christians’ views. Syrian Islamic factions have failed to address the fears of Christians; on the contrary, in many cases they have used violence against religious minorities. Where Islamic groups present a real threat, Christians are likely to lean toward the regime. The less of a threat they represent, the more Christians are likely to take a neutral or critical position on the regime.

As with so many other things in Syria, this is a grey area. Christians in Syria are politically divided, just like other religious communities in the country, and they cannot be treated as one homogenous group. Moreover, their political position cannot be defined as being for or against the regime – their political attitude is shaped by their interests in safety and public services and is influenced by their environment, particularly the degree of religious segregation and the presence (or lack thereof) of an Islamist threat.

CrowBat

12-22-2016, 11:39 PM

Thanks Captain Bringdown. And yet you get to have Christmas in Vienna if you so choose...I'll greet Schnbrunn, Rathaus and Staatsopera for you. ;-)

That seems rather out of place with the holiday spirit. How can Kerry bloviate on about the plight of Aleppo whilst Obama denies the FSA the ATGMs they need to hold off the Assadists?That's what they're doing all the time since 2012.

It is one thing to have an adversary out to subjugate or kill you; it is quite another to be betrayed.And then by whom, and for what?

By 'cradle of democracy' and because 'that's ####'.

In that case, the Saudis and Israelis would have to come to an agreement about using Golan in order to supply the FSA in the south.Which is never going to happen. Israelis would never come to the idea to support anybody in Syria (I'll stop here in this regards, i.e. about 'that topic'), and Saudis would never come to the idea to openly cooperate with Israel.

The FSA relying upon Erdogan makes me feel no warmer inside than the Mujaheddin relying upon ul-Haq...Worse yet: Mujaheddin were commanded, supplied and relied upon the Pakistani ISI's Afghan Bureau, directly subordinated to Pres Zia ul-Haqq, who was a staunch Islamist... and when that didn't work, then the ISI created the Taliban, and helped them grew their military and their state (with Saudi money, of course).

Indeed. Do the Al-Thanis believe that the MB will be grateful and appoint them to be Protectors of the Two Holy Cities?No idea. I simply do not understand them.

On one side, Qataris generally couldn't care more about education of their kids, and their population in general. On the other, they're squandering billions for such 'projects' like supporting the JAN/JFS and similar gangs around Syria. Makes no sense to me.

The Saudis puzzle me.

Why haven't they set Balochistan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Lebanon on fire? Are they too preoccupied with Yemen? Their contribution to the OIR air campaign can't be too onerous...
My theory is that after forcing them to remove Prince Bandar, Oblabla told the new 'king' he can go to Yemen - but not to Syria; and that probably because giving Iraq and Syria to the IRGC was one of Iranian conditions for that 'historic' Nuclear Treaty.

...which, on the other side, was kind of 'necessary' because Iranians actually got few nukes.

Must admit, I have it really hard to believe what I just wrote - and then in the public. But, Al Venter (a highly experienced South African author who researched that affair for years and wrote a book to the latter topic) is in full agreement in this regards - and that since some 3-4 years...

Note that I'm no fan of the Saudis, Wahhabism or their support for Salafism (directly or indirectly), but I have to compare them against Erdogan and Khamanei...Neither am I. But, one cannot deny it: they have learned their lessons form supporting the AQ.