Syria in 2016 (October onwards)

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems like the regime is pushing civilians from eastern #Aleppo into #YPG-held Sheikh Maqsoud district.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOoj9inPQuE#

[OUTLAW 09]

NOW we get solid evidence of just how the YPG which claims to be attacking IS and claims to be a US supported 300% proxy because they are supposedly fighting IS fights together with Assad against both FSA and Turkey...

Syria #Aleppo #SDF/#YPG took control of Bustan al-Pasha, Ayn at-Tal, Hellok, Sheikh Fares & Sheikh Kheder east of
Sheikh Maqsud

[OUTLAW 09]

I tell @BBC 250,000 people trapped under bombardment in east Aleppo in basements hiding.Terrified. Black chapter in history of intl politics


Reports of mass arrests conduct by #Assad-forces when people try to flee eastern parts of #Aleppo city
FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Breaking || E. #Aleppo
Regime air force intelligence is arresting males ages 18 and above leaving neighborhoods of besieged Aleppo

NOTE: this is being conducted by Shia militias and Hezbollah just as they have done in Ramadi......Fallujah......and now Mosul....atrocities/war crimes will now be the results on top of genocide......

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING #NewsMap
Pro-#Assad forces captured all of northern #Aleppo.
Rebel-held area reduced by 40% since the weekend.

AND the US leadership stated that there would never been another Rwanda and or Srebrenica...WELL there is and the US WH and UNSC and other Western leaders say not a single utterance....nothing.....

Sad state of the West...and yet everyone worries about "populism" that has not killed a single person BUT makes the headlines of MSM every single day...

[OUTLAW 09]

Reports 6 airstrikes hit pro-Assad towns of Nubl & Zahra in N rural #Aleppo, some claim Turkish jets (unlikely) others Russian by mistake

Aleppo: The Shia towns of #Nubl and #Zahraa were hit by several airstrikes.


Unconfirmed reports saying 1 of the airstrikes targeted a headquarter of Liwaa Baqer Shiite militia. #Aleppo #Syria

Aleppo: Reports that 36 pro-#Assad forces were killed and 55 wounded by airstrikes on #Nubl and #Zahraa.

Aleppo: Reports that the death toll has risen to 50+ killed pro-#Assad forces in #Nubl and #Zahraa. 80+ were wounded.

Aleppo: Very precise hits for friendly fire

Aleppo: Look on the map, it's highly unlikely that #Nubl and #Zahraa were hit by multiple #Russia|n or #Assad airstrikes.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: After #Aleppo the #Assad regime plans to reach #Fuah & #Kafarya and capture #Idlib City. The rebels should be prepared.


Are we now seeing the Erdogan response to the Assad attacks on the TAF?????

Aleppo: #FSA rebels vow to fight against #ISIS and #YPG. #Al_Bab

#Breaking FSA|| #Aleppo
List of regime forces that attacked E.Aleppo:
- Lebanese Hezbollah
- Iraqi Al Nujba
- Palestinian-Syrian Liwa AlQuds

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Aleppo || #WarCrimes
Regime\ Russian plane dropped missiles on Jabal AlHas, Binan AlHas, Abu Qata & Kafrkaar in rural south Aleppo

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform #Breaking || #WarCrimes
Regime airstrikes target Ashaar neighborhood with vacuum bombs in besieged east #Aleppo

MORE CWs ie chlorine used against civilians by Assad....JUST how much chlorine did the Jordanians actually sell to Assad and did they actually know the end use of that chemical which has been declared a CW.....

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Breaking || #WarCrimes
Civilians killed last night as regime dropped barrelbombs of toxic chlorine gases on Sakhor neighborhood, #Aleppo

[OUTLAW 09]

EVEN MORE solid evidence that the US Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK fights with Putin and Assad against FSA NOT IS..the main reason the US is supposedly supporting them in the first place....

SO is the US SOF actually now fighting to support Assad and Putin which is what the Obama WH has all along wanted in the first place :D???? Valid question.

Telling.
Pro-regime maps now show #YPG-held areas in #Aleppo in regime colours.
Just honest.

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Rebel retreat in #Aleppo followed after failed 2 times to break siege from south & #Turkey declare #EuphratesShield will not target city

Footage
Intense Turkish air strikes around al-Bab, 30 km N-E of #Aleppo.
Surely 100% unrelated ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYGK15otykU#…

[OUTLAW 09]

PURE ETHNIC CLEANSING and the US/UNSC say not a single word...comment...statement against it.....sad....


Assad's #EthnicCleansing busses depart from Khan ash-Shih, S-W of #Damascus, towards #Idlib.
"Never again AFTER Rwanda and Srebrenica ." BUT AGAIN it happens.

[OUTLAW 09]

And to make sure, the "liberation" of eastern #Aleppo goes quickly, pro-#Assad forces fired more SS-21 ballistic missiles into it yesterday.

[OUTLAW 09]

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister

Total chaos in opposition-held eastern districts of #Aleppo. More sustained losses to regime this morning.

Stunning international silence.

REMEMBER Obama WH kept saying there is no military solution and NFZ will not work....Putin has disproved Obama.....

Expect the southern zone of opposition control to present more stubborn resistance, but eventual defeat (weeks or months?) inevitable.

Civilians, activists & fighters alike are beyond disenchanted with their fate - horrible fatalism emerging:

Another man in Aleppo, his message to journos: "But don't worry. When we die you will find [someone] instead of us to communicate with."

Suffice to say, the now seemingly inevitable regime “victory” in #Aleppo does not promise stability for #Syria.

Sadly, far from it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Heavy #Russia|n & #Assad airstrikes on the rebel-held districts of Eastern #Aleppo. 20+ civilians were killed by chlorine gas

[OUTLAW 09]

GLOBSEC Policy Inst. ‏@cepolicy
Storytelling & #narratives are ever important in #inforwar. #Strategy & #narrative are linked. Cant win communication w/ facts! #

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle W. Orton
✔
@KyleWOrton
.@ShirazMaher speaking to @BBCWorldatOne about the terrible situation in #Aleppo as the pro-Assad forces move in.
https://youtu.be/LjSAgcfBmxw

[OUTLAW 09]

7 year old Syrian girl using her mother's account


Bana Alabed ‏@AlabedBana 19h
19 hours ago

Tonight we have no house, it's bombed & I got in rubble. I saw deaths and I almost died. - Bana #Aleppo

Bana Alabed ‏@AlabedBana 7h
7 hours ago

Under heavy bombardments now. In between death and life now, please keep praying for us. #Aleppo

Bana Alabed ‏@AlabedBana 2h
2 hours ago

Message - we are on the run as many people killed right now in heavy bombardments. We are fighting for our lives. still with you.- Fatemah

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #YPG and #Assad flags raised in #Bustan_al_Pasha District in Eastern #Aleppo today.

THIS is the supposedly US supported Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK FIGHTING with Assad and Putin AGAINST FSA and not IS.....

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA || W. #Aleppo
Free Syrian Army forces destroy regime Kornet launcher with anti-tank TOW missile on New Aleppo frontline

Breaking || East #Aleppo
Several cases of suffocation from regime chlorine barrelbombs dropped on Meisr & Qaatrji, besieged Aleppo

Breaking || Besieged east #Aleppo
Russian planes drop clusterbombs on civilian areas of Qaatrji, AlMuaslaat AlQadima & Dahrat Awad

BREAKING || East #Aleppo
Dozens dead & many wounded in regime/ Russian airstrikes hitting alShaar area in besieged east Aleppo

[OUTLAW 09]

E. #Aleppo: Sham Front shelled Tell Sheikh Yussuf with its BM-21 Grad.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.231812&lon=37.260904&z=14&m=b#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: #Assad regime preparing a new offensive against rebels in Northern #Hama. More and more artillery arriving there.

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: Civil defense official in Syria's rebel-held eastern Aleppo says will have no fuel within two days

Aleppo: #Assad regime will try to capture Old Aleppo next. Rebels have lost "Housing Area" to pro-#Assad forces.

Unconfirmed reports of arrests of males evacuating east-#Aleppo. Notable lack of outcry or action regarding likely arrests or killings

This regime 'lost' info on 6k detainees from one suburb alone. Evacs and #Aleppo situation pose huge risk of mass disappearance & death

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #YPG and #Assad flags raised in #Bustan_al_Pasha District in Eastern #Aleppo today.

THIS is the supposedly US supported Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK FIGHTING with Assad and Putin AGAINST FSA and not IS.....

SO NOW the US is directly supporting a YPG/PKK committing war crimes as a US supported proxy....

Aleppo: Reports that #YPG handing over rebels & civilians to #Assad regime. Several people, including 3 brothers, were executed.

This are people who fled to #Sheikh_Maqsood District after the rebel frontline collapsed.

Unable to understand where are JFS and ahrar? They are silent?

Yes, no reaction since yesterday.

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Ongoing heavy #Russian air strikes west of #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVxB-HGGVmE#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

SERIOUS...SCD is no longing attempting to rescue those buried under the bomb rubble...

GENOCIDE in your face and the entire WEST says not a single word....sad really sad and a telling failure and a win from Russian non linear warfare across the board....

Aleppo: #Syria|n White Helmets suspend operations in #Aleppo. Too many barbaric #Russia|n & #Assad airstrikes.
New White Helmets (@SyriaCivilDef) statement:

- lost 2/4 centers in East #Aleppo
- no fuel reserves
- lost rescue equipment to bombings

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #YPG militants from #Afrin are convinced that they can beat #FSA + Turkish army and capture #Al_Bab with the help of #Assad regime.

Aleppo: #YPG attack to recapture #Sab_Wiran village was repelled by #FSA and Turkish artillery today. #Al_Bab


MORE evidence of that US supported Kurdish group YPG/PKK claiming to be fighting IS...ALTHOUGH they fighting against TAF/FSA AND not against IS......

Aleppo: #Assad forces supporting #YPG in #Jubah village, 13.5 kilometers west of #Al_Bab, against #FSA rebels.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.369051&lon=37.337894&z=13&m=b#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Reuters Graphics @ReutersGraphics
Aleppo - A city under siege. Graphics showing areas of damage and control as well as the people who have suffered:
http://tmsnrt.rs/2gfboV9

Not much has changed on the #Mosul & #Raqqa frontlines. Northern #Raqqa frontline is more or less quiet, #YPG has lost some positions.

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat..this is the second such air strike by unknown aircraft.....in the last two days.....

Several reports claiming Assad positions in the Khanaser area in south rural #Aleppo were targeted by an "unknown" jet a little while ago

OK......now we know who bombed the first time......confirmed by proAssad commenter.

Russians mistakenly bombed Nubl and Zahra towns with RBK-500 cluster bombs:

[OUTLAW 09]

.@PhillipSmyth estimates that #Syria hosts somewhere between 15,500 and 25,000 Shia foreign fighters.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #YPG and #Assad flags raised in #Bustan_al_Pasha District in Eastern #Aleppo today.

THIS is the supposedly US supported Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK FIGHTING with Assad and Putin AGAINST FSA and not IS.....

3 stages of #YPG/#SDF fan reasoning re #Aleppo flag raising
1.They don't fight with the regime.
2.They are just pragmatic.
3.They must fight the jihadis.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Man carrying his wounded wife searching for an underground medical facility. All hospitals in Eastern #Aleppo destroyed.

[OUTLAW 09]

The General Command of #YPG: We have rescued 6,000 civilians from the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo

They rescued no one...these were fleeing civilians which have been now detained by Assad forces.....

NOTICE the red star of the PKK still the same in all of their logos and flags since 1979

[OUTLAW 09]

Quneitra: Rebel TOW strike against #Assad bulldozer in #Quneitra Province.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: No ambulances or fuel left to transport the wounded in Eastern #Aleppo.

[Azor]

Firstly, I have never claimed that the Assadists are a “lesser evil” than the Sunni Arab supremacist movements, namely Daesh and Al Qaeda. On the contrary, I have often argued (on Disqus) that Assad has killed, injured and displaced far more civilians than Daesh, and that the latter’s gruesome spectacles are intended to ensure that the Sunni Arab population complies with its rule and that the Shias and Kurds are deterred from confronting it, whereas Assad is indifferent as to whether the civilians in opposition acquiesce, flee or perish.

Secondly, many tyrants would inflict more suffering if they had the ability to do so. This applies to Hussein and Al-Baghdadi as much as it does Putin, Khamenei and Assad. However, we as students of history can only judge their actions, not what they may or may not have done had they controlled the world’s strongest military. The fact that you place Tito and Stalin in the same category is precisely why dispassionate context is required.

Thirdly, there are ancient ethnic and sectarian cleavages in Syria that the elder Assad initially attempted to dissolve, not unlike Yugoslav’s Tito, but then later exacerbated during his internal conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition. Having said that, the armed Sunni Arab opposition of the 1980s did not attract enough support from the Sunni Arab population in Syria, unlike from 2011 to present, so there are more variables at work than Alawi vs. Sunni. Overall, I would say that Hafez was more inclusive of groups outside his own in comparison to Iran and Iraq, and certainly far more tolerant of the Kurds than the other three states in which they reside. Nevertheless, he was brutal toward any and all opposition, and his bodycount from 1979 on exceeds that of Iran.

Fourth, I have never subscribed to the notion that a brutal dictatorship is required to hold diverse societies together. What I will say is that the political boundaries of the Near East are not reflective of the ethnic or religious groups that reside there and that rather than unitary states that rely upon oppression in order to maintain integrity, federations with substantial regional autonomy are necessary if these borders are to remain.

Fifth, dictatorship is awful and all dictators rely upon brutality and gangs of thugs to remain in power and play divide and conquer with various political, religious and ethnic groups. I am well aware of the mechanics of authoritarian and totalitarian rule, thank you. Yet the revolutionary fervor propels tyrants’ followers to vehemently eradicate opposition fades over time (e.g. the Soviet Union in 1989-1992). What the rank and file of the Syrian security forces were prepared to do or to be complicit in during the 1980s has changed over 30 years, even if fanatical loyalists and groups tied to Assad’s fortunes remain prepared to do the worst.

Sixth, you seem more interested in ad hominem than a comparative analysis of this war. The fact is that according to the publicly available data, Assadist forces have killed more combatants than non-combatants. This does not mean that Shabiha gangs are not marauding around murdering, robbing and raping, that Syrian helicopters are not bombing apartment blocks, or that Syrian forces are not using chemical weapons indiscriminately. However, I would not compare Assad’s offensives to Operation Searchlight or the German anti-partisan operations on the Eastern Front as yet. Perhaps you are too close to your subject?

Seventh, I have never claimed that Assad’s victory in the war would lead to less killing or stability. In fact, I fail to see how the forces that he and Khamenei have unleashed can be bottled back up. At present, it seems rather certain that Syria will remain divided among various armed groups for the foreseeable future and that even a Lebanon-type political arrangement will be impossible without a massive foreign international peacekeeping effort.

RE: No-fly Zone

I look forward to your article in WOTR, which I read daily.

(a) You will have to admit that the West was too hasty in both lending its official support to the SNC and FSA in 2011, and then withdrawing it. Given developments in Egypt, where the moderate or secular opposition was crushed between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood, and Libya, where it continues to struggle to survive, it was reasonable to assume that Syria was no different. Indeed, the FSA went through a period roughly in 2012-2013 where it was suffering from internal tensions, defections to Nusra and other Islamist groups and conflict with other rebel groups. I believe that the FSA must be supported because if it is allowed to be crushed, the Sunni Arabs will turn to Daesh, Nusra or a similar group to protect them from the Alawis, Shias and Kurds. This does not mean, however, that the FSA is capable of defeating the Islamist rebels even if Assad was overthrown.

(b) I fully agree with you on the technical aspects of the air defense threat. The issue is political not military.

Neither NATO nor the Coalition would agree to establish a no-fly zone where Russian aircraft are operating.

If the US unilaterally imposed a no-fly zone that covered areas where Russian aircraft were operating, I believe that Putin would ignore it. What then? What happens when US aircraft are shooting down Russian aircraft without a UNSC mandate or even the permission of the country whose airspace they are in?

When there are images and videos of dozens of Russian aircraft exploding in the skies, Putin will be forced to react lest he lose all legitimacy with the Russian people, which is predicated upon his personal charisma rather than any legal or rational authority.

Any US president who believes that ousting Assad, Russia and Iran from Syria is more important than US national security, and its existing commitments to NATO and other allies, is not worthy of the office.

This is where I differ with you and Outlaw, because there are engaged, interested and passionate US officials all over the globe. If every one of their compelling security issues were dealt with in the way that they saw fit, the United States would be at war with Syria, Iran, North Korea, China and Russia at the very least.

[Azor]

Aleppo: #YPG and #Assad flags raised in #Bustan_al_Pasha District in Eastern #Aleppo today.

THIS is the supposedly US supported Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK FIGHTING with Assad and Putin AGAINST FSA and not IS.....

Saving this one for those who still believe that the Kurds will solve everything...

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA || #EuphratesShield
Free Syrian Army forces preparing to break into Khalilia & Zorzo to liberate them from #Daesh

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
Rural #Aleppo || #Syria
Video: Iran's Cmndr Qassem Soleimani visits Iraqi militia Al Nujba before recent operations
https://youtu.be/JGPa3_oEH-g

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Breaking || #Aleppo
Civil Defence Sttmt on humanitarian catastrophe in besieged Aleppo 2000+ airstrikes, chlorine gas & ballistic missiles

[Azor]

@PhillipSmyth estimates that #Syria hosts somewhere between 15,500 and 25,000 Shia foreign fighters.

Has it occurred to you that the United States is using the Syrian Civil War to drain Iranian resources, cripple Lebanese Hezbollah to protect Israel and prevent Iranian interference in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Lebanon?

Human suffering aside, Iran has lost Syria - a major asset - and has worsening ties with Hezbollah which is tiring of the fight.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #YPG held a funeral procession for dozens of their fighters in #Manbij. They were killed by #FSA & Turkish army east of #Al_Bab.

[OUTLAW 09]

Has it occurred to you that the United States is using the Syrian Civil War to drain Iranian resources, cripple Lebanese Hezbollah to protect Israel and prevent Iranian interference in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Lebanon?

Human suffering aside, Iran has lost Syria - a major asset - and has worsening ties with Hezbollah which is tiring of the fight.

Wait a minute.....Iran is already in AFG.....Pakistan....Iraq and Lebanon....and that is not keeping Shia away from the Israeli border the last time I checked.....

In fact Iran is virtually on the edge of taking over completely in Syria and the cost to Sunni's is what 500K or 600K or 700K dead and still the Iranians are inside Syria and Iraq...

So what you are posting makes no sense....

The US is making in fact the holy mess far more messy....take their support of the Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK which is actively fighting openly against Turkey and FSA NOT against IS....WHICH was supposedly the real reason we are supporting them BUT WHICH is fighting with the active support of Iran/Russia and Assad......against a NATO ally.....

[Azor]

Wait a minute.....Iran is already in AFG.....Pakistan....Iraq and Lebanon....and that is not keeping Shia away from the Israeli border the last time I checked.....

In fact Iran is virtually on the edge of taking over completely in Syria and the cost to Sunni's is what 500K or 600K or 700K dead and still the Iranians are inside Syria and Iraq...

So what you are posting makes no sense....

The US is making in fact the holy mess far more messy....take their support of the Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK which is actively fighting openly against Turkey and FSA NOT against IS....WHICH was supposedly the real reason we are supporting them BUT WHICH is fighting with the active support of Iran/Russia and Assad......against a NATO ally.....

OK...

Prior to the Syrian Civil War, Iran could count on the support of:


Syria, in particular its antiquated but superior IADS, which could at least monitor northern Israel, Jordan and the Iraqi-Jordanian border, and alert Iran of an incoming Israeli airstrike
Iraq, which could deny permission to Israeli and US aircraft en route to Iran, and which could also alert Iran of incoming airstrikes
Lebanese Hezbollah, which could retaliate against Israel
Iraqi Hezbollah, which could retaliate against US personnel in Iraq
Afghan Shia militias, which could retaliate against US personnel in Afghanistan
Pakistani Shia militias, which could retaliate against US personnel in Pakistan or against the Pakistani government for collusion with the United States


If airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities were launched tomorrow, Iran would be in a comparatively weaker position to retaliate compared to 2010, given:


Its special forces and funding in Syria
Lebanese Hezbollah's commitment to Syria
Other Shia militias' commitment in Syria or Iraq
The loss of Syria's IADS
The ongoing conflict against the Syrian opposition, Al Qaeda and Daesh

[Azor]

The US is making in fact the holy mess far more messy....take their support of the Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK which is actively fighting openly against Turkey and FSA NOT against IS....WHICH was supposedly the real reason we are supporting them BUT WHICH is fighting with the active support of Iran/Russia and Assad......against a NATO ally.....

I agree that the YPG is a Syrian branch of the Turkish PKK. While I approve of US and Coalition efforts to help the YPG defend Kurds from Daesh, I am concerned that the YPG is manipulating its various sponsors and engaging in ethnic cleansing under the guise of liberating Arab and Arab-Kurdish areas from Daesh. Despite the gloss in the mainstream media, I understand that not all Kurdish groups are the same and I also know that the Iraqi Kurds and Peshmerga have been clients of the United States since 1991.

However, like it or not, neither the Syrian Civil War nor the one in Iraq can be resolved in isolation, and they have brought to the fore intense demands for self-determination and security on the part of Shias, Sunnis, Arabs and Kurds alike, to say nothing of smaller minorities, and it would be folly for Ankara, Beirut and Teheran to believe that they can inoculate themselves from the conflagration let alone the social and political contagion.

Turkey is a NATO ally, however, it is also a historical and contemporary oppressor of the Kurds that has killed more Kurdish civilians over the same period than both the Syrians and Iranians since 1979. Although Turkey has experienced terrorism on the part of Daesh, a number of bloody attacks have targeted Kurdish areas in Turkey, including HDP rallies, and may have played a major role in the AKP's most recent parliamentary results. Knowing the brutal cunning of Turkey's security services, it would not surprise me in the least if a number of these terrorist attacks were in fact false flags and also used to pull support away from the HDP's more democratic and inclusive and mandate. The PKK is a terrorist organization, however, it is an understandable consequence of Ankara's success at viciously suppressing moderate (egalitarian integrationist) Kurds, leaving representation of the community to violent radicals (egalitarian and supremacist separatists).

Now, despite the YPG and YPG elements within the SDF acquiring TOWs, it seems that US support for the YPG remains limited to fighting Daesh, whereas various FSA units have been vetted by the CIA to receive TOWs and other lethal aid in order to fight both Daesh and Assad.

Moreover, the Russians seem to be providing the lethal aid that the YPG is using against the FSA and Turks, as well as the close air support against the FSA, within the Russian meaning of CAS.

In my opinion, Erdogan is NATO's own mini-Putin, who should be removed from NATO. Ankara has long lost the ability to be an honest broker with respect to Syria, although I don't see why Ankara's interference should be denounced whilst Teheran's is ignored.

[CrowBat]

CrowBat..this is the second such air strike by unknown aircraft.....in the last two days.....

Several reports claiming Assad positions in the Khanaser area in south rural #Aleppo were targeted by an "unknown" jet a little while ago

OK......now we know who bombed the first time......confirmed by proAssad commenter.

Russians mistakenly bombed Nubl and Zahra towns with RBK-500 cluster bombs:
Yup, and best of all is: all of these air strikes - those on Nubol/Zahra (supposedly up to six, although only two were actually registered), and the two at Khan Nassir - can be clearly 'credited' to Russians.

Two of their aircraft were airborne over western Aleppo Governorate around the time Nubol/Zahra enclave was hit, and two were airborne over southern Aleppo at the time Khan Nasir was hit.

People do not believe me, and say I'm 'making things', and there is certainly a chance of inexperienced Russian naval pilots entering wrong coordinates into their SVP-24s - but I see this only as evidence for there being no direct communication between Russians and the IRGC.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.........think about this statement and how this same mentality is to underline US FP going forward over the next four years......an advisor this close to Trump tells you where we are going......

WHEN an advisor this close to Trump cannot even understand that capitalism is not a form of government then we are all in trouble.....so when Syrians demand the rule of law and good governance instead of raw pure capitalism then are we the US to support or not support????

Trump advisor Stephen Moore: "Capitalism's more important than democracy, I'm not even a big believer in democracy"

[CrowBat]

Firstly, I have never claimed that the Assadists are a “lesser evil” than the Sunni Arab supremacist movements, namely Daesh and Al Qaeda....
...what a surprise: even more so considering the AQI (and all of its predecessors) were all the time intensivelly supported by Assadists and Iranians.

Let me guess: you've never heard of such thugs like Abu Qaaqaa and his gang of jihadists parading around Syria while protected by members of various 'intelligence services', all though the period 2003-2009...? You've never heard of Assad's and Q's 'Jihad Import-Export' business of that time?


The fact that you place Tito and Stalin in the same category is precisely why dispassionate context is required.Wait a second, please: when I ridicule the thesis about 'harmony' between ethnic groups under dictators responsible for systematic mass murder: that means I'm emotionally involved...?

Cool.


Thirdly, there are ancient ethnic and sectarian cleavages in Syria that the elder Assad initially attempted to dissolve...By purging Sunnis out of the military and state apparatus, and imposing Alawite minority instead...?


...not unlike Yugoslav’s Tito......who was installing chauvinist Serbian ex-Chetnik criminals (and collaborateurs with Nazis) into the communist state apparatus in place of Croats and Bosnians - in the name of 'unity and brotherhood'...?

Now I see: I simply do to understand anything at all about this with 'history' and 'historians'...


Having said that, the armed Sunni Arab opposition of the 1980s did not attract enough support from the Sunni Arab population in Syria, unlike from 2011 to present, so there are more variables at work than Alawi vs. Sunni.To recapitulate: Moslem Brotherhood's insurgency of late 1970s and 1980s didn't attract public support. But the appearance of Jihadists of the AQI - created, imported to Syria and then supported by Assad in late 2011 and early 2012 - 'did'?

And this: because you said so...?

Cool.


Overall, I would say that Hafez was more inclusive of groups outside his own in comparison to Iran and Iraq, and certainly far more tolerant of the Kurds than the other three states in which they reside.Oh, they are all more inclusive than the other. They all are - or were - true internationalists, while everybody else is a chauvinist, retarded counterrevolutionary, or jihadist created by a CIA-al-Qaida-conspiracy....

But foremost: all of these lovely dictators and mass-murderers were so badly misunderstood. They never had anything but best intentions for everybody around them. :rolleyes:


Fourth, I have never subscribed to the notion that a brutal dictatorship is required to hold diverse societies together. What I will say is that the political boundaries of the Near East are not reflective of the ethnic or religious groups that reside there and that rather than unitary states that rely upon oppression in order to maintain integrity, federations with substantial regional autonomy are necessary if these borders are to remain.Interesting. BTW, who imposed these borders there?


Sixth, you seem more interested in ad hominem than a comparative analysis of this war. The fact is that according to the publicly available data, Assadist forces have killed more combatants than non-combatants.Yeah, 'sure & of course'.

Since you're so much better at a comparative analysis, how about you presenting these figures confirming your standpoint?

BTW, before you do so, please check if your analysis is including about 200,000 Syrians disappeared by Assadists since 2011, or all those listed in Cesar Files. I'm looking forward for your reply.


However, I would not compare Assad’s offensives to Operation Searchlight or the German anti-partisan operations on the Eastern Front as yet. Perhaps you are too close to your subject?No doubt I am. Haven't you concluded this already earlier? At least at the start of this post of yours?

BTW, have you seen latest figures for numbers of Syrian refugees?

Have you taken a closer look at Google Earth images of southern and eastern Damascus, Homs, and then Hama from the last four years?

If yes, why not trying to do that now? What do you get to see there?

Should you come to the idea to check that place: can you explain me how comes half of Hama was flattened completely (NOW, i.e. in this war, not back in 1982, and as can be clearly seen on Google Earth) - although there was never any kind of fighting there?

And then, have you ever asked yourself how many of dozens of thousands of those 'evacuated' out of various insurgent-held pockets around Damascus this year are going to return to their homes?

Have you ever put these factors together, and within the context?

Declare me emotionally involved as much as you like; tell me I'm interested in ad hominems only, and cannot analyse. All no problem. But, if you failed to pay attention at the fact that half a million of Syrians was murdered in cold blood, if you failed to realize that nearly 60% of the Syrian population is uprooted and turned into homeless refugees (at least half of which is never going to return to their homes), and if you failed to find out that more than half of major Syrian cities were completely destroyed... if you failed to not only collect the related information, but also to analyse it... well, then it's actually you who missed most of this war, and most of Assadist actions directly comparable to those of Nazi 'Einsatzgruppen' in western USSR of 1941-1942.

In such case, you can declare me as emotionally involved as much as you like. But, fact is: when it comes to the Syrian Civil War, you're again presenting yourself as somebody who simply has no clue what is he talking about.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....think about this for a moment....

Hassan Hassan
✔
@hxhassan
Who knew that Mosul and Aleppo might be the cities where a new state of play, for Baghdad & Damascus, is determined around the same time!

NOTICE not a single individual here outside of say CrowBat....Weiss..Leister Hassan and Orton in the US MSM or in the DC seems to fully understand exactly what is ongoing inside Syria/Iraq and the ME.....

Have you seen in US MSM at anytime in the last say two years a thorough discussion on Iran and the IRGC and the Khomeini "Green Crescent dream of his" and his "Islamic Revolution" which has a heavy Shia jihadi undertone...NO you have not......

We must accept that Iraq is well on the way to becoming the new Islamic Iraqi Republic as is Syria.......the new Islamic Syrian Republic and that is OK with Obama and Trump?

Really go back a reread a lot of Khomeini's writings say from 1969 to 1979 they might really surprise you........

THEN reread the rivalry between Khomeini and the then King of KSA for control of the global Muslim Uma..... including both Shia and Sunni....when Khomeini realized he was not "winning that fight" he moved into direct confrontation with KSA....and Khomeini has continued that rivalry this time with a war......being fought in Syria not in KSA.....

THEn go back and reread anything you can get your hands on about the actual historical development of Islam over say the first 800-1000 years and you will notice that in developments of the Caliphates (actually Baghdadi is not the first to declare one) one strong Sunni one was based in Damascus and ruled over Iraq and into Iran.....

THEN reread the "Ali" and "Hassan" events as viewed by Shia and then notice that when The Caliphate in Damascus was defeated there was a Shia Caliphate established in Baghdad...a Caliphate that applied to both Sunni and Shia.....

WELL now the Shia have their Baghdad and now Damascus and Beirut and presto the Khomeini "Green Crescent" truly appears out of the ashes....

AND Russia thinking it can control IRGC....the Iraqi Shia militias inside Syria and Hezbollah is in an altered state of reality...

AND Russia believing they cannot avoid this same development inside Russia especially from the Sunni side ...well they have in fact an ongoing jihadi war already....in the Caucasus's with daily fights between Russian Security Service forces and jihadi's...

With the pictures now streaming out of Aleppo...this will only deepen that jihadi fight.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...it would really behoove you to go back into Muslim historical and fully understand this oppression by Shia with "Ali" and "Hyusan" and their relationship to the Sunni side of Islam....

Why do I say that...you hear a constant stream of comments around them in the current Iraqi Shia militia statements in Syria as well as similar comments coming out of Hezbollah.......

IMHO right now we are seeing a serious fight between Shia and Sunni's being carried out in Syria...

Khomeini wanted to be the mystical leader of the entire Muslim Ummah as his writings reflect the thinking that both Shia and Sunni could be reunited under his leadership...

If this is the case then if you are Turkey....or KSA who view themselves right now as potentially the leader of the global Sunni and you see what is occurring in Aleppo and across Syria at the hands of Shia and yes Assad is a off shoot member of the Shia....

WHAT is your response going to be if you sense Khamenei is making good on Khomeini's "Green Crescent"????

That is what we must watch over the next few months....

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW...I think we are actually just weeks away from a Turkey/KSA/Qatar decision on what is next as they are trying to understand the election of Trump for the ME....BUT I think they thoroughly know what it is....even though Trump advisors have sent out mixed messages on Turkey they have been repeatedly clear on Assad and Putin....

"If you do not leave... you will be annihilated."

Leaflets dropped by #Russia & #Assad regime on eastern #Aleppo. (via @hrw)

[CrowBat]

(a)You will have to admit that the West was too hasty in both lending its official support to the SNC and FSA in 2011, and then withdrawing it.The 'West' never provided any kind of serious support for the SNC, and especially not for the FSyA.

This is likely to sound 'liberal' from US POV, or 'leftist' from EU POV, but... bottom line, the core problem with all the 'West' did in Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria, etc. was a pitiful apathy of self-serving cleptocracies run by big corporations that prefer to believe own prejudice and cheap PRBS.

See, 'Islam is incompatible with democracy'; see, 'they know no other language but that of violence'; see, 'they're going to declare an Islamic state' etc., while at the same time the very same 'establishment' in control of our governments cannot but support a never-ending war because they are all the time are cashing billions for armament spent in it.

But, of course, I'm emotionally involved and cannot analyse. Because of this I do not understand that such policy is 'securing hundreds of thousands of jobs', and thus 'preferable' to any kind of solutions that would actually end the war... Indeed, I am too blind but to see that 'fighting a war' is 'going to end sooner, and prove to be a far cheaper solution' - as so professionally demonstrated in the last 14 years, right?


Given developments in Egypt, where the moderate or secular opposition was crushed between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood...Wrong. The opposition in Egypt was a mix of seculars and the MBs. It won against Mubarak, and was 'decided to elect' the MBs. Then Egyptians discovered the MBs are not the best solution after all: thus, the very same opposition - including majority of the MBs - supported the army coup. And the army then 'restored' the 'order' from before 2011 - and smashed the opposition that supported its coup.

And the West did nothing at all, because... well, because neither was a solution it likes: it's far easier to keep a corrupt military dictator under control than any kind of a pluralist democracy.


...and Libya, where it continues to struggle to survive, it was reasonable to assume that Syria was no different.Are you sure it is?

Shall we dissect what happened in Libya since 2011, and then draw parallels to Syria?


Indeed, the FSA went through a period roughly in 2012-2013 where it was suffering from internal tensions, defections to Nusra and other Islamist groups and conflict with other rebel groups.Defections?

Name me one defection of any major FSyA unit to 'Nusra' or 'other Islamist groups', please.


I believe that the FSA must be supported because if it is allowed to be crushed, the Sunni Arabs will turn to Daesh, Nusra or a similar group to protect them from the Alawis, Shias and Kurds.Yeah, the usual legend on 'Assad or Daesh/Nusra etc.'...

Please, be so kind to explain me: what is your reasoning - which is so very widespread in the West, no doubt about that - that Syrians are left without solution but 'Assad or Daesh/Nusra etc.'?

Have you got any kind of substantiated basis for it?

Is it the ignorance of millions of Syrian refugees that fled to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Canada and wherever else...and the fact they are unlikely to return in the time of their life?

Is it the ignorance of millions of Syrians that are yet to follow?

**********


(b) I fully agree with you on the technical aspects of the air defense threat. The issue is political not military.

Neither NATO nor the Coalition would agree to establish a no-fly zone where Russian aircraft are operating.

If the US unilaterally imposed a no-fly zone that covered areas where Russian aircraft were operating, I believe that Putin would ignore it. What then? What happens when US aircraft are shooting down Russian aircraft...And that is the essence of that problem: there would be no Russian aircraft shoot down, because Russians wouldn't dare challenging a NFZ.

They would paint with SAM-radars, threaten, boast, complain, cry, offend, and lie, like they always do. And that's all.

The reason is simple, and expertly summarized here: The Delusion of Russian Power (http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Editorial_10/The-Delusion-of-Russian-Power_printer.shtml).

And re. 'unilateral decision, not supported by the UNSC'... recently, somebody asked me something like, 'if we do it unilaterally what is the effect on US prestige and credibility in the future?'

For there to be any kind of negative effects upon 'US prestige and credibility', there would first and foremost have to be anything of 'US prestige and credibility' left after all the nonsense the USA created in the last 16 years.

But, there is none of that left. Absolutely nothing. Not even 'wreckage'. Correspondingly, there can be no negative effects upon it.


Any US president who believes that ousting Assad, Russia and Iran from Syria is more important than US national security, and its existing commitments to NATO and other allies, is not worthy of the office.
Oh, but sure. Because, letting the IRGC establish itself in control of most important parts of the Middle East - including more than half of known World-wide oil/gas sources, plus such a spiritually important area like Syria - is 'no threat for US national security'.

Very nice. Then let the IRGC do so, and then let it return to threaten Israel from a position reinforced by a magnitude.

...and you'll see how, 'all of a sudden', this is going to become 'the crucial issue of US national security', and there is going to be no end of blames about 'failures of Oblabla's foreign policies'.


This is where I differ with you and Outlaw, because there are engaged, interested and passionate US officials all over the globe.Absolutely. Indeed, I'm ready to agree (and sign a corresponding statement), any time of the day, that these officials are not only engaged, interested and passionate, but also professional and dedicated, convinced and dependable patriots too.

Please, have absolutely no doubts about this.

Just like there's no doubt that half of them have contracts for future jobs at various think-tanks or in defence sector in their pockets. With which we're back to 'point 1' in this post.

[CrowBat]

Precisely as expected, this morning there are already reports about mass arrests (https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/803190610421313540), indeed first reports about 'extrajudical killings' (https://twitter.com/AJABreaking/status/803318556125462533) (read: summary executions) in the parts of Eastern Aleppo city 'liberated' by the regime, plus those about executions of POWs (https://www.facebook.com/HalabTodayTV/posts/1574434932573939) by the PKK/PYD/YPG.

Why is this 'as expected'? Because this is what Hanano used to look like, back in 2012 (https://twitter.com/AhmadAlkhtiib/status/802873203169165312).

In another giant success for democracy, freedom, and pluralism, the Local Council of Darayya, elected in free elections early this year and proven as one of most pluralist and most effective in all of insurgent-held areas of Syria, but then 'evacuated' (read: ethnically cleansed) by the IRGC in August, was officially dissolved (https://twitter.com/joeyayoub/status/803297392011444224), yesterday.

Instead, nowadays Iranian Mullahs are praying in Daraya.

[OUTLAW 09]

One of very few videos out of eastern #Aleppo, shows Al-Shaar district in ruins.

A scene of total devastation.
https://youtu.be/N1C50-J2Ewo

[CrowBat]

If airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities were launched tomorrow, Iran would be in a comparatively weaker position to retaliate compared to 2010...
Oh mate...

Back in 2010:

- Iran was on the best way into bankruptcy;

- Iran had no integrated radar coverage of its airspace (this was so poor, that international airliners underway over Iran had to deconflict each other via radio!);

- no integrated air defence system;

- nor any kind of strategic depth: indeed, what it had in terms of air defences was concentrated to few neuralgic ares (Bushehr, Qom, Tehran).

Also, its major ballistic missile projects were only entering the final phase of R+d.

In 2016, Iran has:

- strategic depth (because it is in control of most of Iraq, large parts of Syria, and Lebanon),

- a well developed radar network;

- even better developed, and fully integrated (although centralized too), air defence system;

- air defence weapons like S-300, Buk-M1 - and a host of local variants manufactured in cooperation with China (nearly all of which are entirely unknown in the West);

- fully developed series of solid-fuel propelled ballistic missiles with a range out to 2,000km;

- and de-facto control over the Hormuz Straits.

Yes, Iran is spending deftly to uphold Assad; but, thanks to the de-facto lift of sanctions, it's also flush with cash. On the contrary, Iran is therefore in control of a (quantitatively) biggest military force in the Middle Est, and half the World-wide oil/gas reserves.

Perhaps I cannot analyse soberly, but well... if nothing else, that itch in my big toe tells me that Iran nowadays might be in a slightly better position than six years ago.

[OUTLAW 09]

Next step of the diplomatic peaceful resolution of the Syrian crisis: liberating east Aleppo from inhabitants!

As I said yday: The most frightening aspect about the slaughter in #Aleppo is that we now only see air strikes in #AssadPutin media footage.

VIRTUALLY no social media reporting coming out of eastern Aleppo due to no fuel and power....occasional bombing videos BUT from Russian propaganda media outlets like RT and Ruptly...

Russians "liberated" Chechnya in the same exact manner...standard kill all the civilians and latten everything and the problem goes away.... Russian military doctrinal approach...has never changed...

They are not just killing thousands right now.
They also managed to silence the opposition coverage of their slaughter in eastern #Aleppo.

Russian state TV shows fleeing civilians from regime-captured parts in #Aleppo
Then show what they really flee from.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIG15K_8FVs#

[OUTLAW 09]

UN humanitarian chief says 16,000 people are displaced in rebel-held Aleppo with no working hospitals + little food
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-refugees-idUSKBN13O0P5#

UK demands air drops of aid into eastern Ukraine BUT then states they fear for their aircraft....what wimps...then say nothing at all...

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: East #Aleppo fully liberated from hospitals and people - @mod_russia

[CrowBat]

Once again, a nice explanation on why are Russians as insistent on bombing civilians in Idlib and western Aleppo Governorates:

Keeping the Lights On in Rebel Idlib: Local Governance, Services, and the Competition for Legitimacy among Islamist Armed Groups (https://tcf.org/content/report/keeping-lights-rebel-idlib/)

...Rebel-held Idlib is a showcase for how rebels can pursue influence in nonmilitary spaces, as they reverse-engineer international aid dynamics and, through relatively sophisticated administrative structures, compete with each other for legitimacy. It also demonstrates how, in a civil conflict, even seemingly mundane municipal services like trash disposal and road repairs can be inseparable from issues of political and military control. The civilian and military opposition in Idlib had hoped to create a revolutionary alternative to the Syrian state under the Assad regime. In important ways, they have fallen short. But the service bodies and administrations they have built have shown how insurgents can challenge an incumbent regime’s claims to state legitimacy; how they can construct functioning, participatory government, even amid an ongoing civil war; and how they can invest those efforts to win local legitimacy.
...

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
A small town in rural #Idlib province this morning.
@SyriaCivilDef save civilians after #AssadPutin attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83zV-mv-9Jg#

One of the first videos from besieged eastern #Aleppo today.
Post-apocalyptic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1C50-J2Ewo#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Deliberate Russian hacking attack on a German journalist working for BILD who has been a strong voice against Russian actions in Syria and especially Aleppo.

Why am I under intense #AssadPutin hacker attack?
Because I oppose the #WarCrimes of the two regimes.
Latest hacks in #Russian.
Good night.

Russian cyber warfare hard at work in Germany supporting their efforts in Syria....Russian non linear warfare clean and concise......as you can get it...no need to prove intertwining.....

PERFECT example of a recent DDoS email spamming attack on a US security blog site krebsonsecurity.com who posts materials on Russian hacking efforts...Russians slipped up when they posted from Russian Tumblr

Backtracking indicated originating servers were Russian based.

[OUTLAW 09]

THIS was his report that triggered the hacking attack.......

Verzweifelter Hilferuf aus Aleppo:

Die Assad-Truppen tten, plndern, rauben

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/aleppo/interview-mit-chef-white-helmets-48973528.bild.html

Info coming from SCD.....Cries from Aleppo...The Assad troops are killing...plundering..robbing civilians at will....

[OUTLAW 09]

Morozov suggests a de-facto division of Syria. Division is Russia's answer to everything.
Back to 1984?

[OUTLAW 09]

NEW MAP: Militants in #Aleppo suffer crushing defeat. #SAA reduced enemy territory by 40%. #Syria HD:
NOTE ...first of all it was not the SAA as it does not exist and secondly a strategic withdrawal is not always a crushing defeat...
http://imgur.com/a/5SPHH

While losing territory is inherently a negative event ..trying to hold a large area with limited resources...then it makes sense to pull back and defend what one can....

The enemy in this case Iraqi Shiai militias and Hezbollah have the advantage to pick the time and place of attack if one is encircled and the heavy Russian and Assad bombings do not help at all....

In the end ...if the rebels can hold out far longer with the daily media drumbeat of the atrocities and genocide against civilians hitting MSM....it is a win in the end...

BESIDES we still have not heard the last from KSA.....Turkey and Qatar...now that they are free from Obama constraints...


In eastern Ukraine....in the Donetsk International Airport a group of UAF held out longer than Stalingrad against massive Russian and mercenary shelling's and ground attacks....the Syrian rebels have always made it a point to protect civilians and if necessary they will allow them to ease out of the last pocket but I do not see the rebels giving up any time soon....in the end the UAF unit called the Cyborgs were killed when Russian Spetsnaz used gas and then blew up the building on top of them while they were singing the Ukrainian national anthem over the radio to their higher command and in this case the rebels are driven in their eyes by a higher god and are good urban fighters.

[OUTLAW 09]

AND this is no sectarian war......??????

Footage from #Syria-#Russia interpreter shows East #Aleppo civilians on streets mulling future, Shi'a religious chants blaring from vehicle

[OUTLAW 09]

"Don't get blindsided by looting... Strip copper wires from the walls, even," pro-#Syria regime joke in #Aleppo

Civilians of #Hanano #Sakhour who wish to leave #Aleppo are being taken to #Jibrin near Airport, reports of males taken for conscription

NOTE....seriously doubt for conscription as to why would Assad trust Sunni's out of Aleppo with guns in their hands again???....PROBABLY executed and or prison.....

[OUTLAW 09]

MORE PROOF that the US Kurdish proxy YPG/PKK fights for Assad and Putin against FSA NOT Islamic State.....


Unconfirmed from #Efrin #Afrin: #YPG soon sending large military convoy to link up with troops in #SheikhMaqsoud, passing thru #Handarat

[OUTLAW 09]

NOTICE the Obama WH does nothing....they could have called for the meeting but choose not to.....

France calls for UN Security Council meeting over #Aleppo battle.
https://goo.gl/IkdG2Q

[OUTLAW 09]

Deliberate Russian hacking attack on a German journalist working for BILD who has been a strong voice against Russian actions in Syria and especially Aleppo.

Why am I under intense #AssadPutin hacker attack?
Because I oppose the #WarCrimes of the two regimes.
Latest hacks in #Russian.
Good night.

Russian cyber warfare hard at work in Germany supporting their efforts in Syria....Russian non linear warfare clean and concise......as you can get it...no need to prove intertwining.....

PERFECT example of a recent DDoS email spamming attack on a US security blog site krebsonsecurity.com who posts materials on Russian hacking efforts...Russians slipped up when they posted from Russian Tumblr

Backtracking indicated originating servers were Russian based.

Hacking saga continues......
Sad but true.
Russian hackers are attacking me since 15 hours now.
Glad, I get help from @BILD to cope with it.
New email, passwords, etc.

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting Erdogan public statement...if actually true then Erdogan has undergone a reawakening in his views of Russian intentions in Syria and over Aleppo....


VIDEO: Erdogan says today that the reason Turkish troops entered Syria was to end the rule of Assad - @abdbozkurt

Turkey's angry president #Erdogan slams the @UN Security Council, says he gave up on hopes for the UN delivering justice in #Syria.

Turkey president #Erdogan declared today Turkish troops entered into #Syria to finish off Assad's oppressive rule & restore justice

COULD be that he feels no longer constrained by the US and Obama....and the TAF/FSA operation has been proving itself a solid operational success in the configuration it is in....using TAF artillery...armor and TAF SF along with FSA ground troops...AND more importantly Turkish AF CAS....

[CrowBat]

There are several questions in this regards, including:

- is that wishful thinking of various sympathisers of the Syrian insurgency?

- or Erdogan's ploy to attract such?

- or Edrodan's ploy to attrack those supporting transnational jihadists?

- But, and foremost: has he got enough troops for such an intention...?

That is: he probably has enough troops, but if the Turkish military in its current condition can pull something of that kind... I have my doubts about this.

[CrowBat]

Seems the Russians have hit Hezbollah/Syria, perhaps the IRGC too, for the third time in less than three days. Some of Assad-fans are talking about 50 KIA in just one of attacks in question.

Charles Lister is wondering:

3+ reported incidents of airstrikes targeting #Iran-backed militias across #Aleppo in recent days. In Nubl/Zahra, Retyan & Rasm al-Nafl.

Friendly Fire? Russians? Turkish revenge? Israeli Air Force?

On one side, I lean towards reminding everybody about my question Does the Russian Air Force Even Know What Is Going On in#Syria? (https://warisboring.com/does-the-russian-air-force-even-know-what-is-going-on-in-syria-82333eadca31#.6vzg7urm3)

On the other... seems they are striking Hezbollah/Syria, perhaps the IRGC too - but not Hezbollah/Lebanon. So, perhaps it's intentional, 'sort of'.

[CrowBat]

...while victorious, pluralist fighters against Daesh (https://twitter.com/Paradoxy13/status/701434454569578497) (GRAFFIC!!) - read Assadists - unleashed upon Aleppo are talking to each other:
if you leave a washing machine god will not forgive you (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5Tuwibu7xk).

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian military official says Assad and allies aim to seize all eastern Aleppo by the time Trump takes power:
http://reut.rs/2fyejfJ

Iran Ready to Allow Russia's Flights From Hamadan Airbase If Needed - Diplomat:
https://sputniknews.com/military/201611291047960063-hamadan-base-russia/#

[OUTLAW 09]

What comes next after the fall of #Aleppo? Comprehensive analysis from @KyleWOrton
http://www.trtworld.com/opinion/what-can-we-expect-after-the-fall-of-aleppo-241030#

What can we expect after the fall of Aleppo?

The fall of Aleppo would solidify Assad militarily and confirm that Moscow was now the go-to actor for much of the region. Political rehabilitation for Assad is more difficult because of the scale of his crimes


The pro-Assad coalition in Syria has conquered more than a third of the rebel-held enclave in eastern Aleppo City, the last urban stronghold of the mainstream armed opposition. Without significant external assistance, it is difficult to imagine the rebels can hold off, and in the coming days or weeks will likely be forced out entirely. This will not end the war, nor will it suppress the opposition, but it will end the rebellion as a strategic threat to the regime of Bashar al-Assad and push the insurgency into a greater reliance on extremists, creating more space for international terrorists and protracting the war.

The pro-Assad coalition in Aleppo consists of Russian and Syrian regime air power, with ground forces led by Iran, patched together out of the battered remnants of Assad's security forces and an international brigade of rabidly sectarian Shia jihadists.

In February, under the cover of negotiating a ceasefire, the pro-Assad forces cut off Aleppo City's last supply line into Turkey and in July they besieged the rebel-held areas in east Aleppo City. The insurgency briefly broke the siege, but it was re-imposed; a second insurgent offensive had some initial successes before being defeated earlier this month.

The regime's siege-and-starve tactics, which have defeated Homs City and rebel-held suburbs around Damascus, then began. Civilian infrastructure was devastated. No food deliveries have been allowed for four months. All of this was justified by a claim that terrorists held the city, when in reality al-Qaeda's rebranded Syrian branch made up only 2.5 per cent of the insurgents in Aleppo City.

Having exhausted the rebels and civilian population, the pro-Assad forces prepared a final assault, which began#Sunday. By Monday, with a little help from the Syrian PKK—not unlike the sequence of events in February—the pro-Assad coalition made rapid gains in Aleppo City, capturing the northern third of the rebel-held pocket.

Absent rapid, extensive external help, the rebellion almost certainly cannot avoid the loss of the rest of its territory in Aleppo City, and since the only forces who could thwart the pro-Assad coalition, namely the United States and Turkey, have been neutralized by Russian diplomacy, this seems unlikely to occur.

Russia's objectives when it intervened in September 2015 were to secure Assad militarily in power, rehabilitate Assad politically by eliminating all workable opposition elements, and to recast the regional balance of power away from American hegemony.

The first and third objectives were more or less secured after the first three months of the intervention, and Moscow's conduct during that time—using rhetoric about fighting the Islamic State to systematically attack the U.S.-supported moderate rebels—put it well on the way to accomplishing the second objective.

What the fall of Aleppo means for the Syrian opposition

The fall of Aleppo would solidify Assad militarily and confirm that Moscow was now the go-to actor for much of the region. Political rehabilitation for Assad is more difficult because of the scale of his crimes and because mainstream sections of the rebellion will outlast the fall of Aleppo.

One of the immediate ways that the regime is trying to manoeuvre its way back into the family of nations is by having funds for reconstruction from international institutions released into its hands. This was part of the purpose of the recent propaganda conference in Damascus. Politically, this would be a recognition that Assad was staying, and more practically it would ease Assad's re-imposition of his rule after his genocidal war against the population. Somewhat beyond obscene as this is, states are cold beasts and Aleppo's fall would bring some governments around to finding a modus vivendi with the dictator.

For the revolution, this realpolitik calculation that Assad is irremovable short of external invasion will mean the end of some foreign support as states cut their losses. The foreign backers of the rebellion who continue after Aleppo—and especially if the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, formalizes the U.S.'s de facto pro-Assad policy and repudiates the rebellion entirely—will find their options further constrained to ever-more-extreme forces.

The jihadi-salafists who maintained from the start that the U.S. was conspiring with Assad against the largely-Sunni rebellion would appear politically vindicated by Aleppo's fall, and in sheer military terms al-Qaeda could co-opt large numbers of those who want to continue the resistance to Assad.

Turkey's intervention, which mobilized rebels to inflict considerable damage on the Islamic State, is an opportunity to bolster a mainstream rebel force and therefore to also degrade al-Qaeda by offering the insurgency a real, on-the-ground alternative. It has already borne fruit. But if Aleppo falls, the Turkish operation will be discredited for standing on the side-lines as the revolution's hopes of removing Assad were defeated. Al-Qaeda did at least try to break the siege.

Though the population in east Aleppo risked bombardment rather than flee because of the fear of Assad's prisons, where death would be the least of their problems, once the city is reconquered it is likely that many people will leave rather than face retribution for "collaborating with terrorists". Further refugee flows, from the fall of Aleppo itself and from the certainty that will bring that the five million people already driven from Syria will never return, will exacerbate tensions in neighbouring states and reinforce the dynamics in Europe that have led to the rise of populist, far-Right forces friendly to the Kremlin.

Inside Syria, the sense of betrayal will make it very difficult to restore the mainstream revolutionary forces whose cause is seen as attached to Western power to primacy in the insurgency; the West will be seen as complicit, if only by omission, in the horrors that are surely to come in Aleppo. This will strengthen al-Qaeda and other groups who cannot be negotiated with. On the other side, the regime's battlefield successes will—despite is inability to in fact restore total control—give it even less reason than it has now to negotiate.

Put simply, Aleppo's fall will not pacify Syria; it will see the spread of radicalism and chaos inside the country and well beyond for a long time to come.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: 2 foreign #YPG militants were killed by Turkish airstrikes near #Al_Bab. 1 from #Germany, 1 from #US.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #Assad & #Russia|n warplanes and heavy artillery shelling Eastern #Aleppo nonstop now.

Photos taken today purportedly of families inside East #Aleppo fleeing the regime advance #Syria via @AleppoAMC

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING
Another rare video from eastern #Aleppo.
#AssadPutin went fully insane & drop all they have on the people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBJyR6Tvdus#…

More civilians that will not see their "liberation" anymore as #AssadPutin slaughter them in masses right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKkuRqBfhwQ#…

You can hear a baby cry in the background and it's extremely graphic of course.
As I said: The 95% blackout enables the worst #WarCrimes.

ANOTHER Assad leaflet drop on eastern Aleppo....

[OUTLAW 09]

According to Syrian regime TV, #Turkey and #Qatar - not #AssadPutin - bombed eastern #Aleppo since 2012, resp. 2015.
#Syria

[Azor]

Azor.........think about this statement and how this same mentality is to underline US FP going forward over the next four years......an advisor this close to Trump tells you where we are going......

WHEN an advisor this close to Trump cannot even understand that capitalism is not a form of government then we are all in trouble.....so when Syrians demand the rule of law and good governance instead of raw pure capitalism then are we the US to support or not support????

Trump advisor Stephen Moore: "Capitalism's more important than democracy, I'm not even a big believer in democracy"

Stephen Moore was clearly stating that illiberal democracy can result from a failure of the free market. He was not expressing support for the authoritarian state capitalism of Russia, China, et al.

I know that you were hoping that a Clinton Administration would confront Russian and Iranian aggression more, and do more to support allied states and non-state actors, but to what end? Until Russia becomes a "Poland with nukes"? Until China becomes a larger version of Taiwan? Until devout Muslims are seen as no more than a curiosity in the West, similar to Hasidic Jews? How much blood and treasure will that take? It seems akin to Operation Unthinkable...

You served during the Cold War, when the West turned its back on many deserving nations and political movements because it lacked the means to help or that help ran counter to its grand strategy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo joins Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Yalta, Rwanda, Srebrenica, Bosnia, Grozny, Crimea, Donbas, in shameful roll-call of the civilized world's failures.

[OUTLAW 09]

Stephen Moore was clearly stating that illiberal democracy can result from a failure of the free market. He was not expressing support for the authoritarian state capitalism of Russia, China, et al.

I know that you were hoping that a Clinton Administration would confront Russian and Iranian aggression more, and do more to support allied states and non-state actors, but to what end? Until Russia becomes a "Poland with nukes"? Until China becomes a larger version of Taiwan? Until devout Muslims are seen as no more than a curiosity in the West, similar to Hasidic Jews? How much blood and treasure will that take? It seems akin to Operation Unthinkable...

You served during the Cold War, when the West turned its back on many deserving nations and political movements because it lacked the means to help or that help ran counter to its grand strategy.

The last time I had political science classes at the Ph.D level at the German Free University in the 70s I had a number of the original members of RAF in the class...naturally not knowing they would be future terrorists....and walking into the FU PS building one had to go through 14 different leftist group stands outside the building handing out their materials and getting engaged in their arguments.....

WHEN one mixes capitalism and democracy you skate really on thin ice ...do not recall ever one of these 14 groups ever using the following argument of .........

Stephen Moore was clearly stating that illiberal democracy can result from a failure of the free market.

First of all define "illiberal democracy" and then define "failure of the free market".....and then restart the comment......

So are you stating we have no or we have a "free market system" currently and what is exactly then "illiberal democracy"...???

Is this exactly what Stephen Moore was meaning with "illiberal democracy"?????


An illiberal democracy, also called a partial democracy, low intensity democracy, empty democracy, or hybrid regime,is a governing system in which, although elections take place, citizens are cut off from knowledge about the activities of those who exercise real power because of the lack of civil liberties. It is not an "open society". There are many countries "that are categorized as neither 'free' nor 'not free', but as 'probably free', falling somewhere between democratic and nondemocratic regimes". This may be because a constitution limiting government powers exists, but its liberties are ignored, or because an adequate legal constitutional framework of liberties does not exist.

Reference a critique of the failure of the free market in Australia.....


The basic concept behind free-market economics is simple and seductive: the government should not attempt to pick winners by granting assistance to specific industries, and it should only intervene in the marketplace when there has been a substantial market failure. The only trouble with this theory — as the global economic disaster has shown — is that it is based on ideology, not evidence, and it can’t withstand contact with reality.

For decades, Australia has been an enthusiastic adopter of the free-market approach. The consequences — such as mass privatizations, tariff reforms, and flexible wages and conditions — have been lauded by the booming financial sector and the political class. Unnoticed in the hubbub, though, has been the annihilation of the manufacturing sector — which has resulted in 20 years of monthly current-account deficits and a foreign debt approaching $650 billion — and an economy dominated by footloose capital and tax-averse multinationals.

Despite propaganda to the contrary, employment in Australia is now increasingly characterised by low-paid and insecure jobs in service, logistics, and retail industries.

The Failure of Free-Market Economics explains how the triumph of a fundamentally flawed economic orthodoxy has weakened the Australian economy and now threatens our future. It also offers a range of practical reforms that the author argues are essential and urgent. This is a unique perspective from a highly qualified expert who started his career inside the free-market establishment and has ended up as a ‘true unbeliever’ in its ideas.

So is this the capitalism he is talking about....???

BTW..notice the similarities in economic problem that Australia has and it is striking similar to that of the US..and that the arguments that drove Brexit.

Now really pay attention to the Australian cause..."The consequences — such as mass privatizations, tariff reforms, and flexible wages and conditions — have been lauded by the booming financial sector and the political class. Unnoticed in the hubbub, though, has been the annihilation of the manufacturing sector —"

[Azor]

...what a surprise: even more so considering the AQI (and all of its predecessors) were all the time intensivelly supported by Assadists and Iranians. Let me guess: you've never heard of such thugs like Abu Qaaqaa and his gang of jihadists parading around Syria while protected by members of various 'intelligence services', all though the period 2003-2009...? You've never heard of Assad's and Q's 'Jihad Import-Export' business of that time?

What of it? The Iranians have also supported Hamas and other Sunni jihadist groups in Gaza as well as the Taliban in Afghanistan, even as the MOIS and IRGC quarrel with the ISI over Balochistan… You have heard of the old adage about the enemy of one’s enemy, correct?


Wait a second, please: when I ridicule the thesis about 'harmony' between ethnic groups under dictators responsible for systematic mass murder: that means I'm emotionally involved...?

What are you arguing, exactly? You appear to be arguing both that the Assads were unable to quell inter-ethnic and sectarian strife in Syria, and also that this strife was deliberately caused by the Assads. Are you then claiming that Syria would be both peaceful and pluralistic if the Assads were ousted?


By purging Sunnis out of the military and state apparatus, and imposing Alawite minority instead...?

Hafez Assad ruled Syria for three decades. There is a clear difference between his policies in the 1970s, and those during and after the Muslim Brotherhood uprising. Again, it is useful to compare Hafez’ policies with respect to inclusion with those of Turkey, Iran and Iraq over the same period.


...who was installing chauvinist Serbian ex-Chetnik criminals (and collaborateurs with Nazis) into the communist state apparatus in place of Croats and Bosnians - in the name of 'unity and brotherhood'...?

Firstly, Tito did not become dictator of Yugoslavia overnight and was initially part of a national unity government; as with Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Hungary, the Communist seizure of power took years to complete. Secondly, the Yugoslav partisans and later the OZNA/UDBA treated Axis collaborators rather harshly, including massacring them at home and assassinating them abroad.

The Serbs and Bosniaks formed a disproportionately high majority of the Yugoslav partisans and the Croats formed a disproportionately small minority, and there was no Croat resistance to the Axis of any significance outside of Tito’s partisans. Indeed, there were Croat Waffen-SS units and the Croats perpetrated acts of genocide against the Serbs. In comparison, Tito’s partisans fought the Axis, Ustase and the Chetniks.

I do not know the ethnic composition of the SFRY’s government under Tito relative to the composition of the population, however, despite the various POW and collaborator massacres, Tito did not permit Serb retaliation against Croat civilians for the attempted genocide. One can argue that frozen hatreds from World War II contributed to the viciousness of the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s.


To recapitulate: Moslem Brotherhood's insurgency of late 1970s and 1980s didn't attract public support. But the appearance of Jihadists of the AQI - created, imported to Syria and then supported by Assad in late 2011 and early 2012 - 'did'?

I referred to “Sunni Arab armed opposition” to the Assads during Hafez’ rule. The Muslim Brotherhood happened to be the representative of this opposition in the 1970s and 1980s, whereas in 2011 the opposition movement was both far more diverse and received much more support from the Sunni Arab population. I do not consider Daesh representative of the rebellion, but rather an opportunist that took advantage of the chaos and power vacuum in eastern Syria to establish itself.


Oh, they are all more inclusive than the other. They all are - or were - true internationalists, while everybody else is a chauvinist, retarded counterrevolutionary, or jihadist created by a CIA-al-Qaida-conspiracy...But foremost: all of these lovely dictators and mass-murderers were so badly misunderstood. They never had anything but best intentions for everybody around them.

The fact that dictatorships are bad does not mean that some are not worse than others.


Interesting. BTW, who imposed these borders there?

We know who did. But haranguing London and Paris now won’t help, will it?


Since you're so much better at a comparative analysis, how about you presenting these figures confirming your standpoint? BTW, before you do so, please check if your analysis is including about 200,000 Syrians disappeared by Assadists since 2011, or all those listed in Cesar Files. I'm looking forward for your reply.

According to the SOHR, there have been 300,000 to 304,000 documented deaths over the course of the war (March 2011 to October 2016). Of these, 69-70% were combatants (nearly evenly divided between Assadists and the opposition) and 30-31% were civilians (89,000 to 93,000). In addition, there have been an estimated 121,000 undocumented deaths of people of unknown status.

Now, the Caesar report detailed 11,000 deaths over a period of 29 months. Assuming that these prisoner deaths continued at the same rate over the entirety of the war (66 months), we would arrive at a total death toll of 25,000. Even if the maximum estimate of prisoner deaths is used (65,000), we are still left with a civilian casualty percentage of 43%, which is consistent with the suffering in Indochina during the period of the Vietnam War.


But, if you failed to pay attention at the fact that half a million of Syrians was murdered in cold blood, if you failed to realize that nearly 60% of the Syrian population is uprooted and turned into homeless refugees (at least half of which is never going to return to their homes), and if you failed to find out that more than half of major Syrian cities were completely destroyed... if you failed to not only collect the related information, but also to analyse it... well, then it's actually you who missed most of this war, and most of Assadist actions directly comparable to those of Nazi 'Einsatzgruppen' in western USSR of 1941-1942. In such case, you can declare me as emotionally involved as much as you like. But, fact is: when it comes to the Syrian Civil War, you're again presenting yourself as somebody who simply has no clue what is he talking about.

Assad is not Hitler. Period. He is not dissimilar to Milosevic, but he is not Hitler. I understand that for the victims of tyranny it makes no difference if they are shot, exploded, starved, gassed, bludgeoned, tortured, stabbed or burned to death, or whether they are accompanied by 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000 or 1,000,000 fellow victims. Nevertheless, it matters to the objective observer and to the living.

[Azor]

*Your quotes have been shortened only in the interests of space (10,000 character-limit)


The 'West' never provided any kind of serious support for the SNC, and especially not for the FSyA.

The West recognized both the SNC and the FSA and Western officials and officers were present at various meetings with both, and has publicly supported the aims of the SNC and FSA, with respect to replacing Assad with a democratic and inclusive government. In addition, the West has provided or permitted aid, including the ATGMs, to flow to FSA units vetted by the CIA, and to establish bases in Turkey secure from Assad.

Has the SNC/FSA been the recipient of the same level of support as the KLA, KRG/DPK or NTC/NLA? Nope.


This is likely to sound 'liberal' from US POV, or 'leftist' from EU POV, but...

I don’t follow you here.

If you’re going to refer to the corporate welfare queens of the defense sector or the military-industrial complex, you might want to address SIOP-62 and massive retaliation as well


The opposition in Egypt was a mix of seculars and the MBs. It won against Mubarak, and was 'decided to elect' the MBs. Then Egyptians discovered the MBs are not the best solution after all: thus, the very same opposition - including majority of the MBs - supported the army coup. And the army then 'restored' the 'order' from before 2011 - and smashed the opposition that supported its coup. And the West did nothing at all, because... well, because neither was a solution it likes: it's far easier to keep a corrupt military dictator under control than any kind of a pluralist democracy.

According to your version of events, the Egyptians supported Sisi’s coup d’état, so why should the West intervene? Obama’s failure to support Mubarak was not unlike Carter’s failure to support Pahlavi, although the consequences in Egypt were benign by comparison.


Shall we dissect what happened in Libya since 2011, and then draw parallels to Syria?

Syria is not Libya, however, Qatar’s intervention on the ground backed by Anglo-French airpower and American logistics and diplomacy did not exactly lead to secular democracy, now did it? Yet in Libya, Qatar did not have to worry about differences of opinion with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, whereas in Syria it does. In Libya, there was a broad consensus among the foreign intervenors, whereas in Syria there is sharp disagreement.


Defections? Name me one defection of any major FSyA unit to 'Nusra' or 'other Islamist groups', please.

How about the Al-Tawhid Brigade (to the Islamist Front)?

In Q2-Q3 2013, over 3,000 FSA fighters defected to Nusra. The Pentagon claimed through anonymous officials that the FSA lost at least 25% of its manpower and that roughly 50% of the remaining men were radical Islamists. Jack Murphy (SOFREP) claimed that FSA units and commanders defected wholesale but retained their FSA labels in order to maintain the appearance of a moderate/secular character and access to weaponry from the CIA.

In 2014, Daesh and Nusra leaders both claimed that FSA members defected to them and that FSA units sold them weaponry, which Jordanian intelligence confirmed.

Are you claiming that the FSA’s problems are fabrications?


Yeah, the usual legend on 'Assad or Daesh/Nusra etc.'... Please, be so kind to explain me: what is your reasoning - which is so very widespread in the West, no doubt about that - that Syrians are left without solution but 'Assad or Daesh/Nusra etc.'?

I never said that the “solution” is Assad or Sunni Arab supremacists, and I am well aware that Teheran, Damascus and Moscow are attempting to create that choice on the ground. However, is the SNC/FSA capable of ending the war and governing the country?

Obviously, Iran and Russia have put an anvil on the scale in favor of Assad, without which he would have been ousted years ago. However, the FSA has also benefited from foreign support even if those sponsors have been far less forthcoming than the Iranians and Russians. Given the infighting within the FSA as well as between FSA and Islamist units, the resiliency of the Islamists (irrespective of Daesh and recent disavowal of Al Qaeda), and the FSA’s reliance upon fluctuating YPG and Islamist alliances, I have serious doubts about whether a successful Syrian revolution would have transformed the country into a peaceful, inclusive and secular democracy, in the absence of foreign interference. Note that I have not even factored in the SNC/FSA negotiating with the PYD/YPG over the status of Rojava…

Perhaps the million or so fighting-age males who are refugees (of 4.2 million) could swell the FSA’s ranks and end the war?


And that is the essence of that problem: there would be no Russian aircraft shoot down, because Russians wouldn't dare challenging a NFZ.

I didn’t know that you knew the calculus in the Kremlin. Were you frustrated when the United States failed to stop the carnage in Chechnya or oust Russia from Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova?

All of the powers involved in Syria are aware of Russia’s conventional weaknesses, including the Russians themselves. Even in the aftermath of Erdogan’s purges, Turkey could crush Syrian, Russian and Iranian forces and transform the Black Sea into a lake.

You have not addressed what happens when the US declares a NFZ over Syria and the Russians continue operations. The US is an open democracy and the Pentagon cannot afford to place American lives in harm’s way merely to test an adversary’s will. But Russia can. What happens when a F-22 shoots down a Russian Su-24?

Again, the NFZ is not going to oust Assad or alter the situation on the ground. Russia’s greatest contribution to Assad has been the provision and maintenance of armor and artillery as well as AFV crews and SOF units. The air campaign has only been responsible for a tiny fraction of rebel fatalities (non-Daesh and non-YPG). Indeed, Russia’s aircraft contribution is a mere 19% to 27% of the Coalition’s and less than 10% of the strength of Operation Allied Force (where the enemy strength on the ground was 1/3 the manpower of the rebels).


For there to be any kind of negative effects upon 'US prestige and credibility', there would first and foremost have to be anything of 'US prestige and credibility' left after all the nonsense the USA created in the last 16 years.

The political issue is provoking a skirmish that leads to nuclear war.


Oh, but sure. Because, letting the IRGC establish itself in control of most important parts of the Middle East - including more than half of known World-wide oil/gas sources, plus such a spiritually important area like Syria - is 'no threat for US national security'.

I’m afraid that the IRGC already was ensconced in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq prior to the civil wars. The IRGC, Hezbollah and Iran’s other militias have all suffered losses in order to keep Assad in control of Latakia, let alone reconquer Syria. How are they more powerful than before the civil wars? Teheran has strained relations with Hezbollah by injecting it into the carnage.

Iran can devastate Iraqi oil and gas production (attack and sabotage) and block the Strait of Hormuz at leisure already. How does the Syrian Civil War impact this? If anything, the war keeps Iran occupied in Syria rather than meddling elsewhere such as Bahrain or eastern Saudi Arabia. You would think that Beijing would tell Teheran to knock it off, given their dependence on Middle Eastern oil, no?


...Just like there's no doubt that half of them have contracts for future jobs at various think-tanks or in defence sector in their pockets. With which we're back to 'point 1' in this post.

Again, where in your grand plans for no-fly zones, rolling back Iran and imposing peace and liberal democracy in Syria, is there any room for contingencies in Eastern Europe or the South China Sea? What of Africa’s next great bloodbath?

[Azor]

Aleppo joins Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Yalta, Rwanda, Srebrenica, Bosnia, Grozny, Crimea, Donbas, in shameful roll-call of the civilized world's failures.

You forgot Turkey (Armenians), Congo (4X), Biafra, Hungary, the Baltics (2X), Ukraine (2X), Belarus, Kazakhstan, Sudan (2X), El Salvador, Guatemala, Tibet, China, Cambodia, Indonesia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh/West Pakistan, the Kurds, Burundi...

Try draining that swamp. That's enough blood to refill the Aral, Dead and Caspian Seas...

[OUTLAW 09]

You forgot Turkey (Armenians), Congo (4X), Biafra, Hungary, the Baltics (2X), Ukraine (2X), Belarus, Kazakhstan, Sudan (2X), El Salvador, Guatemala, Tibet, China, Cambodia, Indonesia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh/West Pakistan, the Kurds, Burundi...

Try draining that swamp. That's enough blood to refill the Aral, Dead and Caspian Seas...

Leads one to ask.....UN need for or not and ask the question... really is any US FP more than really trying to keep out of a nuclear war and that is about it?

So Trump idea of pulling back to the Atlantic beaches and the Pacific beaches right and then sit back and watch the world sink correct??

Or is there really a need for a true "adult" in the room and where today is that "adult"....."Trump".....Putin....Merkel"?

[Azor]

RE: Illiberal Democracy


The last time I had political science classes at the Ph.D. level at the German Free University in the 70s I had a number of the original members of RAF in the class...naturally not knowing they would be future terrorists...and walking into the FU PS building one had to go through 14 different leftist group stands outside the building handing out their materials and getting engaged in their arguments...

Well, you may be interested to know that little has changed when it comes to Humanities or Liberal Arts students on Western campuses.

I was not attempting to defend Stephen Moore’s opinions, but to place them in the proper context, given your parsing of his remarks and insinuation that he would steer American foreign policy toward an alignment with Russia and China on the basis of a shared socio-economic system.

On the contrary, Moore was addressing the old concern that poverty and lack of opportunity trumps (no pun intended) political ideals, and stating the case from the right. Left-wing intellectuals would agree that one cannot eat or heat oneself with liberal democracy, but that the way to counter this threat is by way of government intervention, progressive taxation and transfers of income and wealth.

Nor does the crony state capitalism of Russia and China share many similarities with Western systems, and the Soviet Union’s Marxist-Leninist rhetoric did not prevent it from engaging in state capitalism and “internal colonization”, whereby the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were transformed into Stalinist Congo Free States. The question is not whether to be capitalist or not, but how to organize the relations between the individual and the state as well as other individuals, and how to organize political representation and the rule of law. Chavez, Morales, Orban and Putin are all leaders who gained power through illiberal democracy due to poverty and/or inequality.

As for military-industrial complexes, the United States has little to counter the German (1934-1945) or the Soviet (1936-1989) juggernauts.

RE: Australia

Australia will never be a core industrialized economy due to geography and demographics, however, it is abundant in natural resources required by the newly industrializing economies of Asia. It would be ludicrous to compare it to the core industrial economies of China, the US, Japan, Germany, South Korea, the UK, Italy, France or Spain, or even the newly industrializing economies of India, Brazil and Mexico.

From 1995 to 2014, Australia’s manufacturing sector as a share of GDP declined -50%. However, Australia’s GDP roughly doubled over that same period (constant dollars) and the value of Australian manufacturing grew 17%, basically keeping pace with inflation. So has Australian manufacturing truly been “annihilated” or have other sectors surged ahead and manufacturing become more efficient and less labor-intensive?

RE: Syria

I am not disputing that Khomeini wanted to expand the “revolution” and had designs on the Fertile Crescent. I have no doubts that many leading clerics and IRGC generals want to recreate the Persian Empire, albeit as a union of Islamic Republics led by Iran. However, I also believe that Iran’s ambitions are circumscribed by her talents, that there are “Trotskyite” and “Stalinist” factions quarreling over this issue, and that the latter have largely prevailed. However, we saw how far Stalin’s cautious opportunism was able to expand the borders of the Soviet Empire: beyond those of any Czar.

Personally, I take an equally dim view of Iran using Shia minorities to advance its interests as I do of Saudi Arabia and Qatar proliferating radical Sunni sects (Salafis and Wahhabis) to counter Iran. I do not want to see the Sunni Arabs of Iraq and Syria oppressed, any more than the Alawites or Syria or Shias of Iraq. I am also in favor of Kurdish independence, carving territory from all four “hosts”, but I am aware that regional autonomy is more realistic due to geopolitical considerations.

[Azor]

Leads one to ask.....UN need for or not and ask the question... really is any US FP more than really trying to keep out of a nuclear war and that is about it?

So Trump idea of pulling back to the Atlantic beaches and the Pacific beaches right and then sit back and watch the world sink correct??

Or is there really a need for a true "adult" in the room and where today is that "adult"....."Trump".....Putin....Merkel"?

The United States is facing imperial overstretch. Comparative US economic and military power has waned since 1945, and injudicious use of force will lead to dissension within the US-led coalition and risk creating anti-US coalitions.

[CrowBat]

What of it? The Iranians have also supported Hamas and other Sunni jihadist groups in Gaza as well as the Taliban in Afghanistan, even as the MOIS and IRGC quarrel with the ISI over Balochistan… You have heard of the old adage about the enemy of one’s enemy, correct?Sure I've heard of it, but you're now simply ignoring the extension to which Assadists went in their work on developing and supporting extremist Islamist groups inside Syria. Sure, they did so with intention of 'keeping USA busy in Iraq', but they did it.

And, certainly enough, it could be said that the inter-ethnic strife in Syria is a French creation. Namely, it was French that began recruiting members of minorities to keep the Sunni majority under control, during the times of their 'mandate' in the country, back in 1920s-1940s. But, no: Assadists weren't 'unable to quell this', as you're trying to misinterpret my statements. They reinforced this process by purging a mass of Sunnis out of the military and security apparatus, in the 1970s. And then they caused an outright war between ethnic and religious groups by a series of massacres in 2012 and 2013.

So yes: I do 'claim' that Syria would be pluralist if the Assads were ousted. It was pluralist already back in the 19th Century, when local Arab nationalists forced Ottomans to introduce parliamentary monarchy; it was pluralist when everybody was warning Nasser from creating the United Arab Republic, in 1958, because Syrians are so diverse and have so many different opinions, and do not like foreign rule nor dictatorships the least. It was pluralist in 2011-2013 too - which, BTW, was a period when FSyA was destroying one jihadist group after the other (go and check Lister's 'Syrian Jihad' for details), before coming under attack of the Daesh and the IRGC; and, the Syrian opposition remains pluralist until today.

Precisely that is the problem the 'West' has got with the Syrian 'opposition' in general: that it's too pluralist, too diverse, and 'not united'. Actually, this is 'united' in its aim of removing Assad; not united in its ideology, though.

Therefore, it is not the fault of 'Syrians' as such they became exposed to a multitude of anti-pluralist foreign military interventions ever since. I.e. that Syria is 'not peaceful' as you explain it.


Hafez Assad ruled Syria for three decades. There is a clear difference between his policies in the 1970s, and those during and after the Muslim Brotherhood uprising.In what regards, please? That in 1970s he was massacring Syrian Communists by thousands, and subsequently 'others'...?


Firstly, Tito did not become dictator of Yugoslavia overnight and was initially part of a national unity government...Heaven's name... where have you got your info on Yugoslavia under Tito? Let me guess: from the Serbian Academy of Sciences?


I referred to “Sunni Arab armed opposition” to the Assads during Hafez’ rule. The Muslim Brotherhood happened to be the representative of this opposition in the 1970s and 1980s...No, it was not. And that is the problem: the MB insurgency of late 1970s and early 1980s failed precisely because it lacked popular support. Therefore, the MB was no representative of 'this opposition'.


I do not consider Daesh representative of the rebellion, but rather an opportunist that took advantage of the chaos and power vacuum in eastern Syria to establish itself.At least one point where we agree. Though, I would add: Daesh is not Syrian. It's origins are Iraqi, and the mass of its idiots are anything but 'Syrian'.


But haranguing London and Paris now won’t help, will it?Nope. But, preventing them from correcting their own mistakes is not going to help either.


According to the SOHR...OK, everything's clear. SOHR is a single guy in London collecting info. However, neither is his info complete, nor is he anywhere near providing a solid analysis.

For example, he's got not a single source inside Ra'astan-Talbiseh Pocket, perhaps one in Eastern Ghouta, and next to none in southern Syria. In other cases he's bunching all reports to one topic under the same category without any sense. For example, ever since the start of the Russian military intervention, he's reporting EVERY SINGLE Daesh KIA in Syria as 'killed by Russian air strikes' - no matter how or by whom was the idiot in question actually KIA. Means: he's bunching Daesh KIA in CENTCOM-run air strikes, Daesh KIA in battles with the FSyA in northern Aleppo, and those KIA in battles with the IRGC and Hezbollah in south-eastern Aleppo and with Russians in Homs as 'killed by Russian air strikes'. He never run a similar analysis on numbers of foreigners (whether transnational Wahhabist jihadists fighting for Daesh or JFS, or Shi'a and other jihadists fighting on the IRGC's side) involved and KIA in this conflict, like gentlemen from firil.net did.

Finally, he has regularly (and that 'regularly since years') proved unable to sort out killed civilians from killed combatants (which is no wonder, considering he's alone, and a reliable analysis requires such immense volumes of cross-examination, that an entire team of researchers at Airwars.org regularly needs six months to do the same).

Overall, and by all respect I've got for him: sorry, but his reporting in this regards is anything but 'reliable'. It's barely good enough if one wants to write some article about situation in Syria in general, and needs a rough figure for the number of people killed. But, SOHR is anything than 'useful' for
gauging whether Assadists are killing civilians at same rate like somebody else in some other war.


Assad is not Hitler. Period.Aha. Wait and see the long-term repercussions of survival of his regime, and then gauge.

[CrowBat]

The West recognized both the SNC and the FSA...That's not even a simplistic explanation - say, one useful if somebody prefers to keep it simple 'because reality is too complex'...

The 'West'... the USA never 'recognized' the SNC as some sort of 'Syrian government in exile'. That's a simple matter of fact.

Actually, bodies like what the SNC is nowadays, were created by the USA and various of its 'allies' as a 'representatives of armed Syrian opposition in exile', and then imposed upon the FSyA.

This was done because first Turkey, and then the USA proved unable to cooperate with original leadership of the FSyA (Col Rifa'at al-Assad & Co). They were unable to do so because of insistence for specific political statements from him (Americans wanted him to recognize Israel for example; Turks wanted him to accept political guidance of Moslem Brotherhood etc.), while he was refusing to make any kind of political statements before Assad regime would be ousted.

So, ignoring Assad, they created the first body of what eventually became the SNC (or: is nowadays known as the SNC) - and completely sidelined Assad. Have you ever even heard of him?

Hand at heart: I haven't heard of him since report about 4th or 5th assassination attempt, some two years ago (so far, he's lost an eye, one arm, and one leg in all the bombings of his hideouts in Turkey).

However, because that 'council' created by the USA and Turkey primarily consisted of Syrian diaspora, i.e. people living abroad and entirely unknown to the Syrian opposition - to Syrians that took arms to fight Assad inside Syria - most of the FSyA refused to subject itself to their control. That was back in 2012.

Another problem they've had with the SNC was that the 'Western' support (i.e. the amount of support provided by Saudi Arabia and Turkey) for it was conditioned on statements of ideological nature, made solely in interests of their foreign backers. Combined with Qataris, Kuwaitis etc. ignoring such 'central command bodies' like the SNC and providing aid directly to 'oppositionals' they're favourising (foremost various transnational jihadists, but also Syrian Salafists), this became the reason why nobody was listening to the SNC. That's what created the 'chaos' of 2013-2015 period.

The situation changed only early this year, when Saudis took over and brought all the ACTUAL leaders of the insurgency together in Saudi Arabia. When preparing the meetings in question (which then resulted in that quasi-cease-fire of 28 February 2016), the Saudis didn't care about ideological, religious and whatever other declarations, but picked out people that really matter to Syrians in Syria, and left them pick their own representatives abroad.

'Strangely enough', ever since, everybody - including Ahrar ash-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam - is 'listening' to the SNC.

Complex, isn't it? Surely 'too complex' for 'any decent Westerner'. But also the only logical solution when one is dealing with people from a country that's as pluralist as Syria traditionally is, and Syrians traditionally are.

And, hand at heart: it's actually absurd too. It's absurd because it took the representatives of an oppressive dictatorship in a country where Wahhabism is official state religion, to bring Syrians to cooperate with each other. While representatives of 'democratic' and 'pluralists' and whatever-other-kind-of-nonsense governments were unable to do the same for five years.


I don’t follow you here.Neither does 99% of the electoral bodies in various 'Western democracies'. And that's the problem: we've got governments run by big business; our inner and foreign politics is dictated by interests of the same, and although supposedly able to change this during elections, our system is such that as voters, we're hopelessly out of condition to even recognize this - not to talk about change anything about that.

Because of that, our democracies are supporting a wide network of oppressive dictatorships around the world, and ignoring misdeeds of those that are not 'our allies', while doing their best at preventing development of pluralist societies and corresponding governments. It's because of this situation that the West - not only the USA - is fighting the very same war, in very same, hopelessly pointless fashion, and without the slightest trace of chance of success (if at all: this would be temporary at most) since not only 15, but 20 and more years.

Syria is meanwhile - though by far - the best example for this: it's de-facto a 'synergy' of all that's went wrong because of this.


According to your version of events, the Egyptians supported Sisi’s coup d’état, so why should the West intervene?Where did I say the West should intervene there?


Syria is not Libya, however, Qatar’s intervention on the ground backed by Anglo-French airpower and American logistics and diplomacy did not exactly lead to secular democracy, now did it?It did. Check the results of the only elections held in Benghazi after that war: what was result of these?


How about the Al-Tawhid Brigade (to the Islamist Front)?Wrong. Liwa at-Tawhid was always an Islamist organization backed by Qatar. It didn't 'defect', but refused to listen to the SNC for reasons explained above.

Any other?


In Q2-Q3 2013, over 3,000 FSA fighters defected to Nusra. The Pentagon claimed...Yeah, 'the Pentagon claimed'. The Pentagon also claims the entire uprising in Syria was launched by jihaidsts... :rolleyes:


In 2014, Daesh and Nusra leaders both claimed that FSA members defected to them and that FSA units sold them weaponry, which Jordanian intelligence confirmed....until it turned out it was Jordanian intel that was selling weapons destined for the FSyA - to such like the JFS and Daesh...


Are you claiming that the FSA’s problems are fabrications?Depends on 'problems' in question.


I never said that the “solution” is Assad or Sunni Arab supremacists, and I am well aware that Teheran, Damascus and Moscow are attempting to create that choice on the ground. However, is the SNC/FSA capable of ending the war and governing the country?No - and this for the host of reasons listed above.

Is that surprising?


Obviously, Iran and Russia have put an anvil on the scale in favor of Assad, without which he would have been ousted years ago. However, the FSA has also benefited from foreign support even if those sponsors have been far less forthcoming than the Iranians and Russians. Given the infighting within the FSA as well as between FSA and Islamist units, the resiliency of the Islamists (irrespective of Daesh and recent disavowal of Al Qaeda), and the FSA’s reliance upon fluctuating YPG and Islamist alliances, I have serious doubts about whether a successful Syrian revolution would have transformed the country into a peaceful, inclusive and secular democracy, in the absence of foreign interference. Note that I have not even factored in the SNC/FSA negotiating with the PYD/YPG over the status of Rojava…Sure, there is no guarantee. But, and that's the point that should be kept in mind all the time: nobody has exterminated as many Syrians as Assadists did; nobody has destroyed as much of Syria as Assadists did, and nobody (not even Qatar and Kuwait combined) has supported the development/emergence and raise of Islamist extremists in Syria as much as Assadists did.

Means - and this is something I do not understand why is it so hard for people like you to understand, too: had he been removed on time, most of deaths, most of destruction, and most of extremist threat would've been removed too.


Perhaps the million or so fighting-age males who are refugees (of 4.2 million) could swell the FSA’s ranks and end the war?Probably so. But, go there and try convince people who have been abandoned and betrayed by everybody who could only do so, that it's worth going back and fighting.

...

[CrowBat]

I didn’t know that you knew the calculus in the Kremlin.But you've got it 100% confirmed Putin would launch a nuclear war if his game in Syria goes wrong...?


Were you frustrated when the United States failed to stop the carnage in Chechnya or oust Russia from Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova?'Frustrated'? Nope. Not even disappointed. I know one simply can't expect anything else from the US (nor from any other Western 'power') any more.


You have not addressed what happens when the US declares a NFZ over Syria and the Russians continue operations.'I didn’t know that you knew the calculus in the Kremlin'.


The US is an open democracy and the Pentagon cannot afford to place American lives in harm’s way merely to test an adversary’s will. But Russia can.Who said that Putin can? He's only better in explaining problems out of his way.


What happens when a F-22 shoots down a Russian Su-24?The same that happened when a F-16 did the same: barking, complaining, crying, accusations etc., and actually nothing at all.


Again, the NFZ is not going to oust Assad or alter the situation on the ground.Nope. But, it would stop massacres of civilians and safeguard the function of local councils - which are the only (_and proven_) functioning pluralist factor in Syria. Indeed, it would further enable providing supplies for these, and thus significantly bolster their status and influence - in turn enabling insurgents to disentangle from any links with jihadists.

Tell me whatever you like, but that's definitely a better idea than the current situation - where any sorts of aid for FSyA and local councils are blocked by the USA, while whole-hearted provision of support for JFS by Qatar (and Turkey, and Kuwait) is completely ignored.


Russia’s greatest contribution to Assad has been the provision and maintenance of armor and artillery as well as AFV crews and SOF units. The air campaign has only been responsible for a tiny fraction of rebel fatalities (non-Daesh and non-YPG). Indeed, Russia’s aircraft contribution is a mere 19% to 27% of the Coalition’s and less than 10% of the strength of Operation Allied Force (where the enemy strength on the ground was 1/3 the manpower of the rebels).Don't know what's the point of this remark, but it's not even that. Russians still haven't provided a single piece of spares for Assadist Sukhois (nor would they ever come to the idea to do so for free): these are all purchased by Iranians from Belarus.

The only 'really important role' the Russian military intervention played in this war so far, is to distract public attention away from the Iranian military intervention, which can meanwhile only be described as 'massive'.


The political issue is provoking a skirmish that leads to nuclear war.'I didn’t know that you knew the calculus in the Kremlin'.


I’m afraid that the IRGC already was ensconced in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq prior to the civil wars.Never to such degree like since 2013.


The IRGC, Hezbollah and Iran’s other militias have all suffered losses in order to keep Assad in control of Latakia, let alone reconquer Syria. How are they more powerful than before the civil wars? Teheran has strained relations with Hezbollah by injecting it into the carnage.Tehran has 'strained' nothing at all.

Thanks to this war, Tehran is now in better control of Hezbollah than it ever was. It has removed most of the 'old guard', and retained collaborateurs. Just for example: now, in Year 2016, it's entirely out of question for few Hezbollah to 'walk' into Israel, kill a few IDF soldiers and hijack another, like it was possible in 2006; that's how tight the IRGC's control of Hezbollah/Lebanon became. And, it has a similar organization developed in Syria, which is meanwhile - at least quantitatively - bigger than Hezbollah/Lebanon. Plus, it has an even bigger Hezbollah-organization in Iraq.

More importantly: Tehran has the Assad regime in its pocket (plus the government of Iraq). It can remove either of the two in a matter of a few days (a week at most), and it outright owns huge swats of what is usually described as 'regime controlled' territory of Syria (between others, lately it outright purchased entire Darayya, in Damascus).

So, while you explain that the 'war keeps Iran occupied in Syria', it's actually so that with every single day this goes on like the last three years, Iran's grip on Syria (and Iraq, of course) is ever firmer. That fact alone is a guaranty for instability, war and international terrorism in this part of the world for several decades longer.


You would think that Beijing would tell Teheran to knock it off, given their dependence on Middle Eastern oil, no?No way: Chinese are perfectly happy with Iranian control over Iraqi oil. After all, they're the biggest foreign investor in Iraq since years.


Again, where in your grand plans for no-fly zones, rolling back Iran and imposing peace and liberal democracy in Syria, is there any room for contingencies in Eastern Europe or the South China Sea? What of Africa’s next great bloodbath?A very interesting response in reaction to conclusion that the US foreign policy is anything but determined in the way prescribed by law - or run in US interests. :D

[CrowBat]

...ah whatever: here some more evidence that no action is necessary, and there's no need to worry about Iranian control over Assadist regime...

Israel Hits Syrian Military, Hezbollah Weapons Convoy (http://www.timesofisrael.com/report-israel-hits-assad-military-target-hezbollah-weapons-convoy-in-syria/).

Based on diferent reports, seems that IASF fighter jets operating over Lebanon (so much about a 'sovereign state' there, thanks not only to Hezbollah, but Israel too), have bombed two targets inside Syria.

One was a 'large regime convoy' underway along the road from Damascus to Beirut (apparently loaded with weapons for Hezbollah), another was some ammunition dumps north of Damascus.

[OUTLAW 09]

The United States is facing imperial overstretch. Comparative US economic and military power has waned since 1945, and injudicious use of force will lead to dissension within the US-led coalition and risk creating anti-US coalitions.

Azor.....seriously imperialist overstretch?...is that not a tad far fetched?

If we look at the number of troops based around the globe....the stationing of US troops is at a record low since say 1990.....Germany is down from 450K to roughly a little more that 100K and most of that is logistical/medical support units...same for Korea and Japan.......

Most of the fighting forces needed for Iraq and AFG rotated largely out of the US units based inside the US and then if needed augmented by units say from Korea and Germany......

The enormous costs came from the constant complete rotation of men and equipment...for move a typical armored BCT it took over 300-500 semitrailer truck loads and that coming and going ...not least of all the so called "nation building costs"....I loaned a bed in my steel container CHU to an Army officer who was responsible for community building projects who deployed with a locked duffel bag carrying 350,000 USDs in 10,000 100 USD bricks all the way from California .....and it was all disbursed with just a signature......

Then all the associated costs to make AFG and Iraq "feel like home" with internet/phone and three warm meals a day...Burger King..Pizza Hut. and all the Red Bull you could drink....and laundry services...

When is was all said and done the defense contractors in the end were the "cash winners".....and the US taxpayer was the "cash cow"....did anyone in the US ever raise their voices when the costs reached FOUR TILLION USDs...not a single political party or Congressman...

Remember back to the 70s we had a draft army of over 1M plus and were paying draft salaries which for me was 465 USDs per month as a SF SFC......and that was with jump pay....language pay and EOD pay.....and a rent free apartment.

Now we have young soldiers when one looks at their actual salaries and factor in the support for housing...education....post exchanges where they are cheaper than Walmart...their healthcare being free...and grocery stores with lower prices and cheaper gas on bases....they actually far out earn individuals of equal age.....

The only drawback is they are never home ...thus the desire to get civilian jobs in a good market right now...

What many including Trump do not realize is the money advantages that say exist for the US military as their stationing costs are largely carried by both Germany and NATO.........and maneuver damages are largely picked up by the Germans....

So all in all...it ain't that expensive as many want you to believe it is....

BUT the core question has been...mentally does the US really want to continue...and that is a political question and as we have seen the Obama WH was not mentally ready to constantly act as the senior adult in the room as that takes a lot of patience and experience...both in short supply in the Obama WH....

[OUTLAW 09]

Terrorists backed by @mod_russia commit another massacre at #Aleppo, openly shelling families fleeing their advance

The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef
45 killed & 50+ injured after regime targeted civilians fleeing west on foot within besieged #Aleppo with artillery
https://youtu.be/1gkePdF-3T0

[OUTLAW 09]

RE: Illiberal Democracy



Well, you may be interested to know that little has changed when it comes to Humanities or Liberal Arts students on Western campuses.

I was not attempting to defend Stephen Moore’s opinions, but to place them in the proper context, given your parsing of his remarks and insinuation that he would steer American foreign policy toward an alignment with Russia and China on the basis of a shared socio-economic system.

On the contrary, Moore was addressing the old concern that poverty and lack of opportunity trumps (no pun intended) political ideals, and stating the case from the right. Left-wing intellectuals would agree that one cannot eat or heat oneself with liberal democracy, but that the way to counter this threat is by way of government intervention, progressive taxation and transfers of income and wealth.

Nor does the crony state capitalism of Russia and China share many similarities with Western systems, and the Soviet Union’s Marxist-Leninist rhetoric did not prevent it from engaging in state capitalism and “internal colonization”, whereby the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were transformed into Stalinist Congo Free States. The question is not whether to be capitalist or not, but how to organize the relations between the individual and the state as well as other individuals, and how to organize political representation and the rule of law. Chavez, Morales, Orban and Putin are all leaders who gained power through illiberal democracy due to poverty and/or inequality.

As for military-industrial complexes, the United States has little to counter the German (1934-1945) or the Soviet (1936-1989) juggernauts.

RE: Australia

Australia will never be a core industrialized economy due to geography and demographics, however, it is abundant in natural resources required by the newly industrializing economies of Asia. It would be ludicrous to compare it to the core industrial economies of China, the US, Japan, Germany, South Korea, the UK, Italy, France or Spain, or even the newly industrializing economies of India, Brazil and Mexico.

From 1995 to 2014, Australia’s manufacturing sector as a share of GDP declined -50%. However, Australia’s GDP roughly doubled over that same period (constant dollars) and the value of Australian manufacturing grew 17%, basically keeping pace with inflation. So has Australian manufacturing truly been “annihilated” or have other sectors surged ahead and manufacturing become more efficient and less labor-intensive?

RE: Syria

I am not disputing that Khomeini wanted to expand the “revolution” and had designs on the Fertile Crescent. I have no doubts that many leading clerics and IRGC generals want to recreate the Persian Empire, albeit as a union of Islamic Republics led by Iran. However, I also believe that Iran’s ambitions are circumscribed by her talents, that there are “Trotskyite” and “Stalinist” factions quarreling over this issue, and that the latter have largely prevailed. However, we saw how far Stalin’s cautious opportunism was able to expand the borders of the Soviet Empire: beyond those of any Czar.

Personally, I take an equally dim view of Iran using Shia minorities to advance its interests as I do of Saudi Arabia and Qatar proliferating radical Sunni sects (Salafis and Wahhabis) to counter Iran. I do not want to see the Sunni Arabs of Iraq and Syria oppressed, any more than the Alawites or Syria or Shias of Iraq. I am also in favor of Kurdish independence, carving territory from all four “hosts”, but I am aware that regional autonomy is more realistic due to geopolitical considerations.

Azor.....here is the core question...how can say Germany with a far higher average hourly wage especially in manufacturing still make tons of money in export markets?

HOW is it possible that the current healthcare system comes from the Prussian king in 1872 and how is it that the average minimum wage is only 9 USDs.....when the cost of living is far higher than the US....?

HOW is it possible that university education for say lawyers...doctors...dentists etc...is basically free...if one finishes HS...?.

HOW is it possible that much of the globes leading high tech for manufacturing comes from Germany where one BMW production plant is largely all robots........?

HOW is it possible to absorb 1.3M refugees and the yet the economy is roaring and has the lowest unemployment rate since 1990?

HOW is it that if unemployed in a dying field you can get retrained into another with a government stipend...maintain full healthcare coverage... and there are jobs available in that field...?

HOW is it possible that the average paid unemployment rates are far higher than any of the US States and also funded via taxes....an cover over two years?

HOW is it that with higher taxes than in the US the roads are relatively smooth with virtually no potholes and yes the infrastructure is aging and old...the government has monies for the rebuilding over the next ten years....

When the political parties and their politicians had told us clearly and concisely about the problems and answered the above ompany that then we would not have needed Trump.....and company to line their own pockets.

Many simply do not and are not willing to demand change until a pied piper comes along promising the world ...and cannot deliver on a 1/3rd of what he promised......

The core problem is all parties and politicians have not clearly and definitively defined the problems in front of the US civil society since 1995...

Globalization has not been a relatively new thing.... is has been creeping up on the US since 1993....

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo, Syria: “It’s really dire,” says spokeswoman for World Food Program. ”It’s a slow-motion descent into hell.”
http://nyti.ms/2gENK8H

[OUTLAW 09]

The regime is pounding #Aleppo. For the last two years we have been witnessing a slow-motion genocide in #Syria. Our inaction shames us all.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ah.....was wondering just when the Russian leadership including the Russian Mod would pick up on this Erdogan public statement which was a not so subtle warning to throttle it back in Aleppo as they are not far military strength wise from racing towards Aleppo and still focusing on Al Bab......they could easily swing towards Aleppo as a feint.........forcing Shai militias to hold back.....


Kremlin asks Turkey to explain Erdogan's remark about toppling Assad
http://reut.rs/2gwySWQ

The additional killing by Assad forces of totally unarmed civilians fleeing the heavy shelling's via photos and videos will not go over well inside Turkey and KSA.....

Turkey and KSA now hold the high morale ground and are starting to use it....Erdogan had been quiet about Assad for awhile but this comment was his most forceful in the last six months...and Russia thought they had a "deal with him" that would allow Assad to remain....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Moscow media broadcast all day video footage from the destruction of eastern Aleppo claiming repeatedly that it was the rebels that destroyed the schools...hospitals....and mosques.....

[OUTLAW 09]

It's open season on 7-year olds from Assad apologists.

[OUTLAW 09]

WHY is it that western MSM never seems to learn.....

Aleppo: @AFP is failing again. 45 killed civilians are confirmed. Despite the facts, @AFP reporting a much lower death toll without proof.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: All regime videos from #Sheikh_Saeed District showing fighting in the outskirts, but not in the center. So rebels control it.

Aleppo: Rebels with a captured pro-#Assad militant from #Afghanistan in #Sheikh_Saeed District today.

Aleppo: Rebels reporting that they are still in control of #Sheikh_Saeed District. 25 pro-#Assad forces were killed & 4 captured.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: #Assad warplane was damaged & several #Assad forces were killed, including a regime colonel, by Grad rockets on #Hama Airbase.

Aleppo: 11 #IRGC militants from #Afghanistan & #Pakistan, killed by rebels in #Aleppo, were buried in #Iran today.

Aleppo: Turkish special forces on a FNSS ACV-15 at #Al_Bab.

Assad media: "Unknown warplanes attacked regime forces on the #Damascus - #Beirut Road." Airstrikes on the 104th Brigade Republican Guard.

Was actually Israel....

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: 52 bodies of killed #Assad forces arrived #Aleppo Military Hospital today.

FSA || #Hama

Video footage of Free Syrian Army forces as they target Hama Military Airport with Grad missiles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXVtl4XFonU&feature=youtu.be#…

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#BREAKING || #Hama
Regime warplane destroyed & regime Colonel killed by Free Syrian Army Grad missiles fired on Hama Military Airport

11 Pakistanis&Afghans (4 from #IRGC's Zeinabiun, 7 from Fatemiun brigade)killed in Aleppo,Syria, buried yesterday/today in Tehran/Qom,Iran.

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat..something for you.....


FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Infographic || #Syria
Militia groups fighting for the #Assad regime in Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

UN Security Council Holds Emergency Session on Aleppo; Russia Calls ‘Propaganda’ as Reportedly 50,000 Civilians Flee
http://www.interpretermag.com/november-30-2016/#15646#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is discussing Syria w unnamed members of Trump's team "known for a long time" by Moscow, Deputy FM Mikhail Bogdanov tells RIA Novosti

[OUTLAW 09]

Ah.....was wondering just when the Russian leadership including the Russian Mod would pick up on this Erdogan public statement which was a not so subtle warning to throttle it back in Aleppo as they are not far military strength wise from racing towards Aleppo and still focusing on Al Bab......they could easily swing towards Aleppo as a feint.........forcing Shai militias to hold back.....


Kremlin asks Turkey to explain Erdogan's remark about toppling Assad
http://reut.rs/2gwySWQ

The additional killing by Assad forces of totally unarmed civilians fleeing the heavy shelling's via photos and videos will not go over well inside Turkey and KSA.....

Turkey and KSA now hold the high morale ground and are starting to use it....Erdogan had been quiet about Assad for awhile but this comment was his most forceful in the last six months...and Russia thought they had a "deal with him" that would allow Assad to remain....

MUST be an interesting set of telephones calls between Putin and Erdogan....second one today....will be interesting to see if the attacks against Aleppo reduce ....

[CrowBat]

Several reports have appeared today, citing the use of BM-21 artillery rockets and tube artillery (like captured M54 cannons) against air bases of Hama and Nayrab.

- The JAN (now standing for Jaysh an-Nasr, FSyA) claims to have rocketed Hama AB by BM-21s (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803915565463175168), apparently yesterday.

- Today the JAM (FSyA) claims to have rocketed Hama AB (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803961129491959808) - and that by what appears to be three full loads of BM-21s (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803940959377616896) - and to have caused casualties, as well as damaged 'one aircraft'.

- While, JASH reports shelling Nayrab AB (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803647404574580737) (military side of Aleppo IAP) with its M54s, and

- Safwah Battalions (FSyA) report to have done the same but with BM-21s (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803629786656436224) - which would explain why most of L-39s ops yesterday were undertaken from Kweres AB only.

While statistics for today is incomplete, it seems such attacks from yesterday were quite effective: not a single take-off from Hama AB was reported after 11.00hrs in the morning local time. Similarly, no L-39s took off from Kweres AB around 17.00hrs (usual time they get airborne), yesterday.

Means: such operations - while quite expensive (a full load for a BM-21 launcher costs up to US$ 40,000) - are very effective in closing down regime's air bases.

If insurgents would regularly target the helidrome in as-Safira in similar fashion, that would stop the steady stream of helicopters dropping barrel bombs on Eastern Aleppo too. Namely, these are responsible for most of carnage between civilians there, the last week or so.

This points at an 'interesting solution', to put it mildly: instead of getting expensive MANPADs (most of which are taken away by the CIA even before reaching Syria, and most of which do not work, anyway), it's surely easier to get BM-21-rounds. They're also more effective on 'per buck' basis: instead of downing 1 or 2 aircraft in 40-80 firings, a single salvo of BM-21 is likely to close an entire base for a day, sometimes longer.

[Azor]

RE: US Imperial Overstretch

Imperial overstretch is not defined by the scale of foreign deployments but ongoing security commitments and the resources and capabilities required to meet them.

I agree that NATO is a net benefit to the United States, given that:


US resources in Europe are small (roughly 8% of forces and 2% of defense expenditures) and yet the US nevertheless leads a powerful coalition*
NATO has not complicated US operations in CENTCOM nor the Navy and Air Force rotations to the Pacific (the “Pivot”)
In a conflict with NATO’s main adversary short of nuclear war, most of non-US NATO will likely bear the brunt of the conflict


However, there increasing issues with NATO, including:


A divergence in attitudes among NATO members on using military force to defend a member under attack, with most Germans, Italians and French being opposed
A divergence in attitudes among NATO members on confronting Russian aggression in Ukraine and supporting Ukraine, where Germans, Italians and French are again unsupportive
The fact that the countries least supportive of contributing to NATO’s collective defense still believe (2/3 or more) that the US will use military force to protect them
The fact that those countries most likely to experience a conflict with Russia (Canada, Denmark, Latvia, Norway) spend well below the 2% of GDP threshold on defense
Extended US nuclear deterrence to 25 other NATO members, including the four most likely to experience a conflict with Russia (see above)
Lower military readiness rates in Germany (~50%), and presumably Italy and Spain as well, than in Russia
British and French reliance upon US logistical support, including supplies of PGMs, airlift, sealift and aerial refueling
NATO has no obligations to respond to an attack on non-CONUS US territories, including Guam and Hawaii


Most vexing, however, are US security commitments to the Philippines and Taiwan, given rapidly increasing Chinese capabilities, as well as the fact that Australia, New Zealand and Thailand are more liabilities than assets in the event of a conflict with China.

*My own figures based upon 2011 deployments and expenditures

RE: Globalization and the Industrial/Manufacturing Share of OECD Economies

As far as (West) Germany is concerned, it has always spent 2X or less on defense as a percentage of its GDP than the United States. In fact, this disparity rose from 2.03X less during the Cold War to 2.66X less from 1992 through 2015. The United States’ primary sector is also a much greater contributor to GDP than in Germany, or more than 2.2X. Yet Germany’s lead in industry and manufacturing is less than 2X, 1.45X and 1.85X, respectively. Another structural factor in Germany’s favor was the Marshall Plan…

However, I would attribute most of Germany’s success to cultural factors that are more similar to Japan than the United States, particularly where efficiency and labor relations are concerned.

[Azor]

The rebellions against the Assads in 1976 and 2011 were comprised primarily of Sunni Arabs, and both were driven by a combination of longstanding communal tensions, opposition to authoritarian rule, blowback to the Assads’ policies and external forces.

In 1976, the prime movers were enmity toward leadership by an Alawi (the presidency had been reserved for a Sunni), Assad’s occupation of Lebanon, resistance to one-party rule becoming one-man rule and the expansion of the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the Arab world. In 2011, the prime movers were the ascendancy of an Alawi elite, continued opposition to the Assad dictatorship and dynasty, blowback from the Assads’ support for all manner of terrorist groups including Sunni jihadis and the Arab Spring.

Syria came the closest to pluralist democracy in 1920 and 1945-1949, but I do not see any evidence of communal harmony during the Ottoman period. On the contrary, European pressure in the 19th Century was the catalyst for improving the lot of Christians in the Ottoman Empire, and only caused the Muslims to commit massacres against them. As for the Alawis, they were oppressed and unequal to the Sunnis. In addition to seeking approval from minorities to support their rule, the French also created autonomous regions for the Alawis and Christians to protect them from violence by the Sunnis. Yet France was not the only intervenor, and the Iraqis and Jordanians interfered in Syria after its independence, as well as the Americans and Soviets to a far lesser extent.


Precisely that is the problem the 'West' has got with the Syrian 'opposition' in general: that it's too pluralist, too diverse, and 'not united'. Actually, this is 'united' in its aim of removing Assad; not united in its ideology, though. Therefore, it is not the fault of 'Syrians' as such they became exposed to a multitude of anti-pluralist foreign military interventions ever since. I.e. that Syria is 'not peaceful' as you explain it.

I agree that it is disingenuous to demand unity and conformity of the Syrian opposition with respect to ideology, but then also desire plurality and diversity. It is also ridiculous to condemn the opposition for Islamist elements when the Islamist rebel units receive better support from their foreign sponsors.


That in 1970s he was massacring Syrian Communists by thousands, and subsequently 'others'...?

Do you have a source for this? It seems as though you are conflating the Islamist Uprising with the Syrian Communist Party schism over Lebanon.


…where have you got your info on Yugoslavia under Tito?

Academic sources. Are you claiming that Tito was worse than Pavelic?


…the MB insurgency of late 1970s and early 1980s failed precisely because it lacked popular support. Therefore, the MB was no representative of 'this opposition'.

I specifically referred to the armed rebellion, not popular opposition to Assad in its entirety.


…SOHR is a single guy in London collecting info. However, neither is his info complete, nor is he anywhere near providing a solid analysis.

His estimates for civilian casualties are roughly in line with the VDC, although the latter’s estimates of combatant fatalities are a fraction of SOHR’s.

We will not know until long after the war has ended, and even then there will be low, median and high estimates for each category. Even for Indochina during the period of US involvement, the estimates vary considerably.

[Azor]

CrowBat..something for you.....


FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Infographic || #Syria
Militia groups fighting for the #Assad regime in Syria

You can't say the Iranians aren't inclusive. Do you think that there is an attrition rate which would knock these groups out either by losses or the militia's refusal to fight? Or is there an endless supply of Shia fighters so long as Iran has the cash?

[Azor]

Several reports have appeared today, citing the use of BM-21 artillery rockets and tube artillery (like captured M54 cannons) against air bases of Hama and Nayrab.

- The JAN (now standing for Jaysh an-Nasr, FSyA) claims to have rocketed Hama AB by BM-21s (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803915565463175168), apparently yesterday.

- Today the JAM (FSyA) claims to have rocketed Hama AB (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803961129491959808) - and that by what appears to be three full loads of BM-21s (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803940959377616896) - and to have caused casualties, as well as damaged 'one aircraft'.

- While, JASH reports shelling Nayrab AB (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803647404574580737) (military side of Aleppo IAP) with its M54s, and

- Safwah Battalions (FSyA) report to have done the same but with BM-21s (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/803629786656436224) - which would explain why most of L-39s ops yesterday were undertaken from Kweres AB only.

While statistics for today is incomplete, it seems such attacks from yesterday were quite effective: not a single take-off from Hama AB was reported after 11.00hrs in the morning local time. Similarly, no L-39s took off from Kweres AB around 17.00hrs (usual time they get airborne), yesterday.

Means: such operations - while quite expensive (a full load for a BM-21 launcher costs up to US$ 40,000) - are very effective in closing down regime's air bases.

If insurgents would regularly target the helidrome in as-Safira in similar fashion, that would stop the steady stream of helicopters dropping barrel bombs on Eastern Aleppo too. Namely, these are responsible for most of carnage between civilians there, the last week or so.

This points at an 'interesting solution', to put it mildly: instead of getting expensive MANPADs (most of which are taken away by the CIA even before reaching Syria, and most of which do not work, anyway), it's surely easier to get BM-21-rounds. They're also more effective on 'per buck' basis: instead of downing 1 or 2 aircraft in 40-80 firings, a single salvo of BM-21 is likely to close an entire base for a day, sometimes longer.

So there is an uptick in rebel MRLS'?

I'm surprised a special rebel unit hasn't made an attempt on Russian facilities in Latakia, perhaps by way of a suicide attack. Are the Russians impregnable or do the rebels not want to aggravate Moscow?

[Azor]

I never claimed that the SNC was recognized as the legitimate government-in-exile of Syria, but the SNC has been the only faction in the war to receive recognition from the West, and that includes Assad. I also agree that the SNC was in part a Western creation intended to guide the ideology of the opposition. There is a Wikipedia page on Riad al-Assad, although your misspelling (“Rifaat al-Assad”) ironically sent me to the biography of a rather colorful member of the Assad clan.


Complex, isn't it? Surely 'too complex' for 'any decent Westerner'. But also the only logical solution when one is dealing with people from a country that's as pluralist as Syria traditionally is, and Syrians traditionally are.

I am sure that you are familiar with the Thirty Years War. Anyone “decent Westerner” confronted with that chaotic bloodbath would be hard pressed to delve into the nuances of the various interests driving it.


It's absurd because it took the representatives of an oppressive dictatorship in a country where Wahhabism is official state religion, to bring Syrians to cooperate with each other. While representatives of 'democratic' and 'pluralists' and whatever-other-kind-of-nonsense governments were unable to do the same for five years.

Agreed. However:

1. Riyadh is disinterested in Kurdish aspirations for independence
2. The Sunni-Shia conflict notwithstanding, Saudi Wahhabism is in conflict with the Salafism being proliferated by the Muslim Brotherhood
3. Riyadh’s support for inclusiveness and diversity among the rebels is an offset to Ankara’s and Doha’s support for Islamists, especially the MB
4. Riyadh has rebuked Doha for its interference in Egypt, Libya and Syria
5. Riyadh may be currently supportive of any and all opposition to Assad, short of IS and AQ, but what will its policies be if Assad loses the war?


Because of that, our democracies are supporting a wide network of oppressive dictatorships around the world, and ignoring misdeeds of those that are not 'our allies'

Much of that is due to the Cold War, when the West took a dual-track approach by supporting liberal democracies on the one hand, and anti-Soviet governments of all types on the other. Remember Churchill’s remark: "If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."

The West has also resigned itself to having full diplomatic and trade relations with illiberal and non-democratic states, given that promoting liberal democracy has only gone so far. There is the probability that increased prosperity and exposure to the West will propel many of these countries toward liberal democracy over time, and there is also the limited ability to impose liberal democracy by force.

However, at present, the West is less aligned with illiberal non-democracies than during World War II or the Cold War, and is more engaged in promoting liberal democracy and confronting human rights abuses than at any time previously.


…while doing their best at preventing development of pluralist societies and corresponding governments.

I completely disagree.


It's because of this situation that the West - not only the USA - is fighting the very same war, in very same, hopelessly pointless fashion, and without the slightest trace of chance of success 15, but 20 and more years.

Again, I disagree. I’m afraid that you would have to refer to cuneiform tablets to find a time when West-Central Asia and North Africa were not in conflict.


It did. Check the results of the only elections held in Benghazi after that war: what was result of these?

Quite frankly, I can’t be bothered about the nuances Libya’s Civil War. What I will say, is that Abu Dhabi and Cairo (and ostensibly Riyadh) are aligned against Doha and Ankara…

RE: Free Syrian Army

There are many who are not even convinced that the FSA exists. I am, however. Yet you will have an uphill battle convincing me that the FSA has not had major problems, including defections to, collusion with and weakness vis-à-vis radical Islamist groups.

I have not seen the Pentagon denying the existence of the FSA, although its program to focus Syrian rebels on Daesh rather than Assad failed miserably. Clearly, the CIA believes in many FSA units.


Sure, there is no guarantee. But, and that's the point that should be kept in mind all the time: nobody has exterminated as many Syrians as Assadists did; nobody has destroyed as much of Syria as Assadists did, and nobody (not even Qatar and Kuwait combined) has supported the development/emergence and raise of Islamist extremists in Syria as much as Assadists did. Means - and this is something I do not understand why is it so hard for people like you to understand, too: had he been removed on time, most of deaths, most of destruction, and most of extremist threat would've been removed too.

Assad is certainly responsible for more Syrian civilian casualties than the rebels, including Daesh. However, had Assad been ousted by the rebels, Syria would have probably still descended into civil war between the Alawis, Kurds and Sunni Arabs, with interference by all of the usual suspects, and division of the Alawi and Sunni Arabs along moderate/secular and Islamist lines. You yourself have observed that the allegedly “stable” Assadist-held areas of Syria are in fact not “stable”. Rather, the Syrian security forces have devolved into Alawi gangs that are led by robber barons rather than warlords, which extort civilians and soldiers alike in Latakia, and the front lines are manned by a variety of Iranian-led mercenary units. Arguably, Assad has long ceased calling the shots in Syria, and it is debatable whether his intention to reconquer the entire country (deviating from Russia’s position) is his own or is Iran’s. Clearly, the clerics and Revolutionary Guards have not tired of the conflict, for if they had, they would settle for Latakia tomorrow.

To refer back to my Thirty Years War reference, the naïveté of claiming that Assad’s ouster would have prevented most of the violence and destruction, is not unlike claiming, “if only Gustaf Adolf had not landed”, or “if only Richelieu had not confronted the Habsburgs”, or “if only Ferdinand II had been more conciliatory”. To be sure, we don’t know what would have happened had Assad stepped down in 2011, but war was definitely in the cards...


Probably so. But, go there and try convince people who have been abandoned and betrayed by everybody who could only do so, that it's worth going back and fighting.

That didn’t stop the Poles from fighting the Germans and the Soviets after the Western betrayal, and even fighting alongside the Soviets who had invaded them and the British who had betrayed them...

Unfortunately, the most “worthy” of Syria’s people in need of refuge are digging children out of rubble knowing that a double-tap is coming, and are fighting desperate battles sandwiched between a horde of Iranian mercenaries and a horde of Salafist ones.

[Azor]

But you've got it 100% confirmed Putin would launch a nuclear war if his game in Syria goes wrong...?

No. But I would say that there is a high probability of Putin:


Ignoring a US NFZ and continuing to strike at rebel targets
Provoking the US into shooting first in order to claim moral outrage and betrayal (as he did against Erdogan)
Responding in-kind to a US attack and limiting the response to Syria and Iraq in order to avoid triggering NATO’s Article V



Not even disappointed. I know one simply can't expect anything else from the US (nor from any other Western 'power') any more.

So you believe that US forces should have engaged Russian forces on Russian territory (Chechnya) and in non-NATO territory (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova), and attacked first? Were you also supportive of US humanitarian interventions in Yugoslavia and Somalia?


Who said that Putin can? He's only better in explaining problems out of his way.

Putin’s narrative is that he is confronting American aggression. A US shoot down of a Russian aircraft would enrage Russians against the US, not Putin.


The same that happened when a F-16 did the same: barking, complaining, crying, accusations etc., and actually nothing at all.

Completely different. The Su-24 had deliberately violated Turkish airspace as part of Putin’s typical intimidation tactics. Syrian airspace is different.


…it would stop massacres of civilians and safeguard the function of local councils - which are the only (_and proven_) functioning pluralist factor in Syria. Indeed, it would further enable providing supplies for these, and thus significantly bolster their status and influence - in turn enabling insurgents to disentangle from any links with jihadists.

Seems like a terrible risk-reward trade-off.


Russians still haven't provided a single piece of spares for Assadist Sukhois (nor would they ever come to the idea to do so for free): these are all purchased by Iranians from Belarus. The only 'really important role' the Russian military intervention played in this war so far, is to distract public attention away from the Iranian military intervention, which can meanwhile only be described as 'massive'.

I agree with the distraction from Iran’s role. However, I was referring to armored fighting vehicles and artillery, not aircraft.


Thanks to this war, Tehran is now in better control of Hezbollah than it ever was. It has removed most of the 'old guard', and retained collaborateurs. Just for example: now, in Year 2016, it's entirely out of question for few Hezbollah to 'walk' into Israel, kill a few IDF soldiers and hijack another, like it was possible in 2006; that's how tight the IRGC's control of Hezbollah/Lebanon became. And, it has a similar organization developed in Syria, which is meanwhile - at least quantitatively - bigger than Hezbollah/Lebanon. Plus, it has an even bigger Hezbollah-organization in Iraq. More importantly: Tehran has the Assad regime in its pocket (plus the government of Iraq). It can remove either of the two in a matter of a few days (a week at most), and it outright owns huge swats of what is usually described as 'regime controlled' territory of Syria (between others, lately it outright purchased entire Darayya, in Damascus). So, while you explain that the 'war keeps Iran occupied in Syria', it's actually so that with every single day this goes on like the last three years, Iran's grip on Syria (and Iraq, of course) is ever firmer. That fact alone is a guaranty for instability, war and international terrorism in this part of the world for several decades longer.

I agree that the Iranians have improved their position at the tactical and operational levels with respect to their influence abroad and coordination of foreign proxies. However, so too have the Turks, Qataris and Saudis. You must admit that since 2011, Saudi Arabia has gained a wealth of experience, including tough lessons, in Yemen and Syria, and is in a better position to coordinate GCC and Sunni Front military action and influence than at any time previously. The experience in Yemen is particularly essential given that the Saudi and other GCC militaries do not inspire respect other than in the air.

Strategically, however, Iran’s financial and manpower resources are dwarfed by those of the Sunni Front. Both sides can make Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria ungovernable so that neither side can claim victory and parade in the town square without sniper fire or a bombing.

Hezbollah cannot take casualties indefinitely, and all that is required are anti-Shia crackdowns in Pakistan, Bahrain and Lebanon, as well as continued stubborn resistance in Iraq and Syria, to occupy Iran’s proxies on various fronts and restrict its ability to cause mayhem. Compared to the conventional military power of Turkey, Egypt and the GCC, and the irregular forces that they can mobilize, Iran has a very weak hand. There is a reason that its military doctrine relies upon striking Gulf Arab cities with ballistic missiles in retaliation.

In conclusion, you are correct that this region will be suffering from war and terrorism for many years to come, and probably until 1/3 of the men mobilized for the conflict are dead or incapacitated. Iran won’t win, but there won’t be peace either.

[OUTLAW 09]

You can't say the Iranians aren't inclusive. Do you think that there is an attrition rate which would knock these groups out either by losses or the militia's refusal to fight? Or is there an endless supply of Shia fighters so long as Iran has the cash?

Relatively speaking...they have taken a real beating...... .especially on the officer side...but they have an endless flow for Iraqi's willing to go to Syria.....

[OUTLAW 09]

New HRW report: Russia/Syria committed war crimes in Sept/Oct bombing of #Aleppo. UN General Assembly should act.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/12/01/russia/syria-war-crimes-month-bombing-aleppo#

Dying to Be Heard: Reporting Syria’s War
http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000004777148/dying-to-be-heard-reporting-syria-war-aleppo.html?smid=tw-share#

Aleppo rebels hope to reverse fortunes with new alliance
http://reut.rs/2gKvCu8

Aleppo: It's raining heavily in #Aleppo Province today. No airstrikes.

[Azor]

Relatively speaking...they have taken a real beating...... .especially on the officer side...but they have an endless flow for Iraqi's willing to go to Syria.....



That has been one of my arguments to CB. I have followed your updates on the losses suffered by the IRGC's officers and various mercenary commanders.

If these mischief-makers are fighting and dying in Syria, they can't also be plotting in Latin America or Lebanon, right?

[Azor]

Aleppo: It's raining heavily in #Aleppo Province today. No airstrikes.

Humor you may appreciate. Nixon or Putin? ;)


[Bondarev] has got to get off his g*dd*mn ass or he’s out….I have ordered that g*dd*mn Air Force time and time and again to do anything, and they can’t bomb because they say these 4 – they need a 4,000-foot ceiling…The Air Force didin’t do a g*dd*mn thing for the last three days, as you know. Not one g*dd*mn thing in [Syria], because the little b*st*rds were afraid that they might not – they might lose a plane because they couldn’t see. I am tired of this bullsh*t…The g*dd*mned Israelis fly at 1,000-foot ceilings. Now, tell them to get off their g*ddamn *ss and do the job. And I-like, for example, I want some [Su-24]s to hit them.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Most confirmed killed foreign non-Kurdish #YPG militants coming from #US (5), #Germany (4), #Australia (3) and #UK (2).

American FF killed with #YPG this year:
- 14 JUL: Levi Shirley
- 3 AUG: Jordan MacTaggart
- 10 AUG: William Savage
- 24 NOV: Michael Isreal

[OUTLAW 09]

Typical propaganda from Russian UK embassy Twitter feed:

Humor
The @SyriaCivilDef are cowards. If they were brave they'd wait in the hospital until we bomb it, not turn up just afterwards to help injured

[OUTLAW 09]

In east Aleppo, it's become impossible to count the dead. Here's why:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/12/01/in-syrias-aleppo-theres-no-way-of-counting-the-dead/?utm_term=.50b5ca3bb84d#

Russia’s Chemical Weapon Attack Investigation in Syria via @bellingcat
]https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/11/30/russias-chemical-weapon-attack-investigation-syria/#

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING Russian FM Lavrov says they had nothing to do w #alBab air attack which killed 4 TR soldiers & it was carried out by Syrian Army.

[Azor]

On October 21, Pietrucha and Benitez published an article at WOTR (http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/political-airpower-part-i-say-no-to-the-no-fly-zone/) arguing against the imposition of a NFZ in Syria, for the following reasons:


The only precedent for establishing a No-Fly Zone against meaningful resistance was Kosovo, which Pietrucha and Benitez regard as an “operational failure that happened to succeed”, and which was expensive in terms of the forces deployed, ordnance expended, daily expenditures and losses (2 aircraft lost plus others damaged)
Libya was a success, albeit not against meaningful resistance (Air Power Australia considered Libya’s IADS weaker than that of Syria, Iran, North Korea, Vietnam and Kazakhstan)
The USAF has 21% less combat aircraft now than in 2003, when the Iraq NFZ was terminated due to OIF
The commitment of US combat aircraft to a Syrian NFZ would significantly deplete the assets used to deter China, Russia, North Korea and Iran
A Syrian NFZ would be costly to impose ($1 billion per month according to Dempsey in 2013)
The resistance on the part of Syria’s IADS would be stiffer than in Kosovo, Libya or Iraq


In my opinion, both Pietrucha and Benitez have exaggerated the threat posed by modern advanced SAMs (APA is guilty of that as well) and have underestimated the role of stealth and the cyber/EM warfare capabilities of the F-35. I also disagree with them that nap-of-the-Earth strike profiles are the only way to enter contested airspace.

However, the Joint Force continues to rely upon the SEAD and strike packages used in 1999, 2003 and 2011, which despite technical upgrades, have declined on a quantitative basis. The limited number of F-22s, F-35s and B-2s available mean that using them for SEAD in Syria leaves gaps in US capabilities elsewhere.

Thoughts?

[OUTLAW 09]

NewsMap
Pro-#Assad forces further advanced in eastern #Aleppo, capturing the "Youth Housing Complex".

[Azor]

Russian FM Lavrov says they had nothing to do w #alBab air attack which killed 4 TR soldiers & it was carried out by Syrian Army.

According to Can Kasapoglu at WOTR (http://warontherocks.com/2016/11/the-stage-is-set-for-an-escalation-the-meaning-of-syrias-attack-on-turkish-forces/), the attack was committed by Syria's Tiger Force, and was the strongest message that Assad could send without being censured by Moscow and to a lesser extent, Teheran, particularly given the Russo-Turkish rapprochement.

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, ladies & gentlemen,
those are #Russian soldiers in #Syria, repeating sectarian slogans and praising the #TerrorOrganisation #Hezbollah.

44 days of "no Russian air strikes" hit multiple targets west of #Aleppo over the last days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqvvnNNpzEM#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Really important.......


After 2yr investigation, @Roy_Gutman's 3-part series on how the #Assad regime fostered jihadists now in AQ & #ISIS:

http://thebea.st/2gATe1h

Defectors from #Assad's regime testify to the regime releasing and manipulating jihadis to discredit the uprising.

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat........what do you think?????


Russia is engaged in talks with #Syria armed groups based in #Aleppo.

The 1st meeting was in #Ankara on Monday; 2nd meeting on Saturday.

pt: #Russia has indicated it'd be willing to accept aid access & local council control of #Aleppo’s east, in exchange for JFS's withdrawal.

[OUTLAW 09]

New Levantine Front map of Aleppo shows how uncertain fate of al-Bab is. Kurds/regime advancing from west, rebels stalled.

[OUTLAW 09]

Kurdish opposition (#KNC/#ENKS) says: "What the Syrian regime is trying in Aleppo with bombs, the #PYD finishes in Northern Syria."

[OUTLAW 09]

According to Can Kasapoglu at WOTR (http://warontherocks.com/2016/11/the-stage-is-set-for-an-escalation-the-meaning-of-syrias-attack-on-turkish-forces/), the attack was committed by Syria's Tiger Force, and was the strongest message that Assad could send without being censured by Moscow and to a lesser extent, Teheran, particularly given the Russo-Turkish rapprochement.

BUT WAIT.........

BREAKING Lavrov says neither Russia nor Syria staged deadly attack on Turkish soldiers in Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

Hundreds of young men missing after pro-Assad forces sweep through former rebel strongholds in Aleppo:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-men-caught-in-government-net-as-aleppos-rebel-zones-fall/2016/11/30/782041ce-b654-11e6-939c-91749443c5e5_story.html?utm_term=.fef6c32f6f08

[Azor]

Kurdish opposition (#KNC/#ENKS) says: "What the Syrian regime is trying in Aleppo with bombs, the #PYD finishes in Northern Syria."

I thought they were freedom fighters and the only people capable of taking on Daesh?

As much as the Turks have oppressed the Kurds, I take a dim view of the supremacist tendencies of the PKK and PYD.

[Azor]

Lavrov says neither Russia nor Syria staged deadly attack on Turkish soldiers in Syria


Poor Daesh...

It is a stand-in for the FSA and civilians when Russia is "slinging lead around the battlefield", to quote the CJTF-OIR spokesman, and now for Assad.

[OUTLAW 09]

A rally was held in Frankfurt by a #PKK front group demanding the #PKK be taken off the terrorism list in Germany.
http://bit.ly/2gLECg1

PKK was banned in #Germany, incidentally, for violent attacks inside the country, not under pressure from #Turkey, #NATO, or anyone else.

SO WHY does the US support a US named terrorist group PKK which is really YPG in sheep's clothing...WHEN a NATO partner has also banned them or terrorism...

[OUTLAW 09]

#Aleppo: #YPG changed #Raqqa offensive against #ISIS into #Al_Bab offensive against #FSA and #Turkey.

Turkey National Security Council: "#Turkey won't allow #PKK-#PYD terror corridor in Northern #Syria and Northern #Iraq."

[OUTLAW 09]

He was a rare bright light in a corner of hell: A missile strike kills the beloved clown of Aleppo
http://wpo.st/H4oI2

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: The rebels are very quiet and released nearly nothing today. No footage from Eastern #Aleppo, Western #Aleppo or #Al_Bab frontlines

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: The rebels are very quiet and released nearly nothing today. No footage from Eastern #Aleppo, Western #Aleppo or #Al_Bab frontlines

Aleppo: Hasan Sharif from #Nubl was killed while he filmed for #Hezbollah in Southern #Aleppo today.

Russia transports #Syria'n chemical weapons to #Crimea
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russia-transports-syrian-chemical-weapons-to-crimea-ukraine-s-report-for-nato-818273.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #ISIS is not under pressure in Northern #Raqqa since nearly 2 weeks. They have sent reinforcements to #Al_Bab.

[Azor]

Publication: Jamestown Foundation - Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 183
By: Paul Goble

The Russian government killed or expelled nearly the entire Circassian nation from the North Caucasus in 1864, after this group resisted the Russian Empire’s advance there for more than a century. To this day, the Circassians remember this as their “genocide.” Now, the Russian government is committing an analogous act by refusing to recognize that the Circassians of Syria have the right to recognition as refugees. Moreover, Russia is blocking them from leaving that war-torn country, in which Moscow is a belligerent, and resettle in their historical homeland. The reason for this inhumane policy, Circassian activists say, is that the Circassians of Syria are “living testimony to the [genocidal] expulsion of [their nation] to the Ottoman Empire” 150 years ago.

Prior to the beginning of the war in Syria, there were approximately 50,000 Circassians living within its borders. Now, according to Circassian activists, there remain no more than 20,000. Some have been killed, many are already internally displaced persons (IDP), but most of that missing 30,000 have fled abroad—the overwhelming majority to Turkey, Jordan and European countries. Russia has officially taken in fewer than 3,000, even though the North Caucasus is the historical homeland of the Circassians and even though far more than that have sought entry. The exact number of Circassians from Syria in the North Caucasus is uncertain because it appears there are more there than the Russian authorities know about (Caucasustimes.com, November 10).

But there is no question that Moscow has turned most away. This year, for example, Russian officials set a quota of 65 for the number of Circassians who could return to Adygea. Moreover, officials in Maikop say that “no one has received the status of refugee, two have been expelled for violating Russian laws, and four have left Russia” on their own. The remaining 59 have been given only temporary residence permits.

Circassian groups, like the International Circassian Association, have long called on Moscow to treat the Circassians of Syria as a special case, but the Russian foreign ministry has absolutely refused. Consequently, Moscow’s policies have put the Circassians of Syria who want to come to the North Caucasus in an impossible position. On the one hand, those who do reach the North Caucasus on the basis of the quota cannot ask for asylum as such, lest they lose all social guarantees. And on the other, because few Syrian Circassians know Russian, they are almost precluded from being integrated into Russia’s legal space in the way that Tajiks or Uzbeks are generally able to do—a reality that has especially infuriated the Circassians and highlighted the way in which Moscow is singling them out.

As a result, Circassian activists say, many of the Circassians who do manage to come to Russia feel compelled to return home, despite the violence and the threat of death that hangs over them there. According to Maikop journalist Anzor Daur, “today there is a crisis in the repatriation of Circassians.” Many of their leaders, he says, now despair that they will save the Circassians of Syria or even be able, in the future, to restore the Circassian nation’s homeland as they have long sought (Onkavkaz.com, November 13).

Neither Russian nor Western human rights activists have devoted much attention to this ongoing tragedy. But the leaders of Circassian groups are not only perfectly aware of it but are, in fact, worried that it may point to the end of their hopes for a revival of the nation and of a recognized Circassian homeland in the North Caucasus. For the OnKavkaz.com portal, Daur has interviewed two such Circassian leaders. Their words clearly highlight the way in which Moscow’s policies in this may be contributing to an ultimate destruction of the Syrian Circassians (Onkavkaz.com, November 13).

One of the reasons Russia has been able to get away with this is that Moscow has not actually articulated a clear policy of keeping the Circassians of Syria out of Russia, Timur Zhuzhuyev, the head of the Adgye Khase youth organization of Karachaevo-Cherkessia noted. Although he could not say “that there is an unpublished decision of the Russian authorities not to take in the Circassians,” Moscow has done almost everything it can to keep them out by throwing up roadblocks. Meanwhile, the Circassians of Syria are dying; and no one is demanding that something be done about it.

Adam Bogus, the president of the Adyge Khase of the Republic of Adygea, is far more pessimistic. He said that after some progress in the run-up to and immediately following the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympiad, almost all efforts to improve the situation of the Circassians in the North Caucasus and to allow Circassians from Syria and elsewhere to return there have “in practice completely ceased.”

“I already do not believe in the rebirth of the Circassians. Vladimir Putin had set the task of forming an all-Russian nation, which must absorb all the other peoples of the country. We certainly, will be near the front on this path of assimilation,” he said. Thus, the prospects for the Circassians of Syria and the Circassian nation as a whole appear quite bleak indeed.

It would be a tragedy if, after attracting the world’s attention to the tragic events of 1864 (see EDM, May 6, 2013; May 27, 2014), the Circassians of the North Caucasus and elsewhere proved unable to do the same concerning the looming potential “genocide” of their people in Syria in 2016.


See more at: https://jamestown.org/program/syria-moscow-orchestrating-another-circassian-genocide/

[OUTLAW 09]

Reports of Aero L-39 Albatross downed in Eastern Aleppo and 2 pilots dead
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/3-december-al-masdar-two-syrian-pilots-killed-as-rebels-shoot#

Aleppo: Warplane was an Aero L-39 and crashed inside besieged Eastern #Aleppo.

[OUTLAW 09]

Iraqi Iranian supported Shia militias wanted to charge into Tal Afar and then on to Aleppo.....appears to be seriously bogged down by IS.....

Mosul: Video from #Sharai village west of #Tal_Afar today. 28 #PMU militants were killed during the clashes.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.346379&lon=42.264404&z=13&m=b#

[CrowBat]

Reports of Aero L-39 Albatross downed in Eastern Aleppo and 2 pilots dead
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/3-december-al-masdar-two-syrian-pilots-killed-as-rebels-shoot#

Aleppo: Warplane was an Aero L-39 and crashed inside besieged Eastern #Aleppo.

Can confirm this one as shot down: it was flown by Lt. Col. Ja'faar Hasan and Capt. Tarek M'alla. Their fate is currently unclear.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #ISIS has killed several #YPG militants at #Jubb_al_Hamir village, 11 kilometers east of #Qabasin. #Al_Bab
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.440066&lon=37.701645&z=12&m=b#…

Aleppo: #YPG executed a young man in #Manbij and launches more arrests for "affiliation with #FSA and #Turkey".

Aleppo: Except besieged Eastern #Aleppo, it's unusually calm on all frontlines between rebels and pro-#Assad forces.

[OUTLAW 09]

2,100 more ethnically cleansed (Sunni) people (most men rebels) from north of #Damascus arrived in #Hama province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oCeRwW_eEg#…

Pro-regime forces reportedly burn former oppos. homes in Khan ash-Shih, 2 days after its capture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YpKxyUq460#…

Air strikes on #Syria's #Idlib province this morning.
The place where #AssadPutin push all displaced civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3FDMo2YEEg#…

Airdrops in #Syria
Same procedure as everyday:
#Iran supplies #Fuah and #Kefraya.
The @UN supplies #DeirEzzor.
Eastern #Aleppo starves.

Russian state TV: #Assad attacks moderate Syrian rebels inside #Aleppo
Another propaganda trainee, unfit for the job
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex-HOvtXfSQ#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Breaking
A new #AssadPutin cluster bomb massacre took place an hour ago near Urem al-Kubra, some km west of #Aleppo.
Kids were the victims.

[OUTLAW 09]

224 human rights & civil society groups issue call for emergency UNGA session to end #Aleppo war crimes:
http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/press-releases/un-inaction-on-syria-is-not-an-option#…

Human Rights Watch (@hrw) accuses #Syria & #Russia of repeated war crimes in Sept-Oct 2016.
446 civilians killed.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/12/01/russia/syria-war-crimes-month-bombing-aleppo#…

[OUTLAW 09]

White Helmets being targeted by a Russian airstrike with cluster munitions in Ma'arat Misrin, #Idlib
https://youtu.be/y4gajw0ETTo

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #YPG executed a young man in #Manbij and launches more arrests for "affiliation with #FSA and #Turkey".

So YPG did not in fact over Manbij to a military council....and remained inside

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian sappers are once again en route to #Syria, this time to help demine eastern #Aleppo from explosive devices left by terrorists

The blue insignia on their right uniform side is their peacekeeping brigade.....either the 14th or 15th Brigade....

[OUTLAW 09]

Don't forget: #AssadPutin already announced,they will fully recaptured (kill everyone) in the "Nusra heartland" Idlib.
MILLIONS of refugees.

In #Idlib prov., relief organisations built new refugee camps for thousands of cleansed civilians around Damascus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlBEjMxfl6Q#

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Syrian rebels and the Turkish Army battled #ISIS 8 km N-E of al-Bab today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbnTn1t-d8#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian and Iranian "altered state of reality" has now hit the ME in full force.....

Even their propaganda media outlet really cannot be serious with this......

Sputnik
✔
@SputnikInt
'It's time to strike back': Russia, #Iran will debunk West's media lies over Aleppo operation
http://sptnkne.ws/cSEt

So Russia and Iran are now going to convince us someone other than Assad and Putin were bombing Aleppo??????

Maybe NATO?????

[OUTLAW 09]

Dozens of civilians were killed and injured in today's #AssadPutin air strikes on besieged #Aleppo city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xhAB9YY8wY#…

[OUTLAW 09]

They’ve stopped counting the dead in besieged East #Aleppo.

1wk ago, toll was 508 people killed since Nov 15.

http://wpo.st/qRtI2# @hrw

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
#IS about to lose its two capitals, but it'll go back into the deserts, resting on networks Assad helped them build. http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2016/12/02/analysis-defeating-the-islamic-state-for-good/#…

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: Iran Threatens to Walk Away From Nuke Deal, Retaliate Against U.S. for New Sanctions

Since the deal was so immensely front-loaded in #Iran's favour and they're now immune from sanctions for years, it's not an idle threat.


Since Monday, the #PYD/#YPG has worked in tandem with pro-#Assad forces in Aleppo and launched two raids on the Kurdish opposition.

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Also today, #AssadPutin bombed half a dozen free towns in #Hama province, trying to entirely destroy them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wFCB5-Cv0c#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Russian TV,embedded with #Assad regime troops,shows brutal pounding of the remaining eastern #Aleppo pocket
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zg4mynTDW-k#…

A child got injured by #AssadPutin air strikes on #Rastan in #Homs province this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvS0sD4aTdU#…

AssadPutin dropped giant bombs on the town of Ouram al-Sughra, some km west of #Aleppo city.
#Approved by the "international community".

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Mortar attack on regime-held western #Aleppo city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-o9T7MoTd8#

Footage
Heavy tank/artillery fire and air strikes (regime Su-22) on the eastern #Aleppo pocket.
By #Assad state TV.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sNSKNeofkE#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

The real jihadis seem to support #Assad more than anyone else.
First they withdrew from western #Aleppo, now they backstab moderates inside.

[OUTLAW 09]

Over a dozen killed & many wounded in Assad airstrikes targeting a market in Kafranbel, rural #Idlib today
https://youtu.be/2KkuJ10mK8s

Khanat Assan: Fatemiyoun Brig. HQ & largest base for pro-#Iran militias in N. #Syria, 7 km S of #Aleppo (1- N. part)
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.086147&lon=37.194386&z=13&m#

2- S. part. Base (~1 km length) built late 2015 & still has over 8 howitzers, 8 tanks & 3 BM-21 Grad. HD photos:
https://jpst.it/Q0rr

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: Map of who holds what in #Aleppo Province [30 NOV 2016]:
- 32.5%: #PYD/#YPG
- 30.5%: Insurgents
- 23%: #IS
- 14%: Pro-#Assad forces

[OUTLAW 09]

BreakingFootage
Hundreds of children flee in panic after #AssadPutin air force jets attacked their primary school in #Rastan
3 kids injured

A witness said: "Regime aircraft only target schools & hospitals under cover of the great powers Russia, America and Europe."

He is right.

[OUTLAW 09]

For years, regime propaganda mocked estimates of civilians trapped in East Aleppo. Now it proclaims to have saved 10s and 100s of thousands.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: besieged Rebels (fighting under newly formed "Aleppo Army/Jaish Halab") fended off a pro-Regime attack on Salah AlDin neighbourhood

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Heavy infighting between rebels in Eastern #Aleppo. #JFS attacked Jaish Islam & Faylaq Al-Sham HQs and arrested many fighters.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Many Turkish special forces arrived in Northern #Aleppo to support #FSA in the next offensives. #Al_Bab #Manbij

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Fierce clashes in Eastern #Aleppo (al-Jazmati & Aziza). 3 #Assad tanks were destroyed & several #Iran|ian militants were captured.

[OUTLAW 09]

This map shows what the regime controls in Syria (In Red). The green is held by all other forces including IS&SDF

[OUTLAW 09]

Horrific #Assad/#Russia bombing of towns in #Idlib today - 50+ people reported killed, including many women & children.

Now Kiselev declares that Russia's ongoing military operation in Syria "makes Russia stronger, not only militarily, but morally, too"

"Aleppo. Major success" declares Russian TV. Describes Syrian gov. gains in Aleppo "big military success" & "grandiose humanitarian success"

[OUTLAW 09]

After long silence, US officials now admit #Syria moderate opposition assessment remains substantial = 50,000.

http://wpo.st/t4NJ2

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister
1yr ago, I wrote that 70K moderate fighters remained in #Syria.

That fit UK assessment & was top-end of U.S:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/yes-there-are-70000-moderate-opposition-fighters-in-syria-heres-what-we-know-about-them/#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
New from me @HJS_Org:

"Defeating the Islamic State for Good"
https://goo.gl/bVJSuJ

U.S. relations with "the Kurds" are more problematic than most think, says @sloanesp. "Four Myths..., Debunked"

http://ift.tt/2gp4Io8

[OUTLAW 09]

What do these GER/RUS tweets have in common?

They brag about aid to #Aleppo, concealing it will all go to areas & people under #Assad rule.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sputnik
✔ @SputnikInt Russia delivers over 710,000 tonnes of #military supplies for #Syrian operations
http://sptnkne.ws/cTnu #Syria #SyriaCrisis

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Today
✔ @RT_com 52% of East #Aleppo now under control of Syrian army – Russian MoD
http://on.rt.com/7wu7

Canada calls for urgent UN General Assembly meeting on Syria
http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2016/12/02/canada-calls-for-urgent-un-general-assembly-meeting-on-syria/ …

Actually one can in fact sideline the UNSC by going directly to the UNGA and asking for a UNGA supported decision THEN the UNSC must follow the UNGA decisions....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian media announced that the Russian MoD is sending more S300 AD batteries to Syria......

No formal MoD announcement as of yet....

Announcement....
Russian Defense Ministry reports another S-300 battalion's deployment to Syria
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/5-december-russian-defense-ministry-reports-s300-battalions …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia/Syria: War Crimes in Month of Bombing Aleppo | Human Rights Watch
https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/12/01/russia/syria-war-crimes-month-bombing-aleppo …

[OUTLAW 09]

As Syria-Russia block aid to eastern Aleppo for 5 months and destroy its hospitals, US-UK contemplate aid air drops.
http://bit.ly/2gWNqSL

UN has stated that the number of Syrians being besieged by Assad has now climbed from 700,000 to well over 1M

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
#Russian air force cluster bomb attacks on civilians in #Binnish city this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNC79N5Ii-A …

UN & EU & US keep repeating mantra that "there's no military solution to Syria".

By which I guess they mean there's only a Final Solution.

[OUTLAW 09]

NOT confirmed as of yet...Russian media has been exceptionally quiet...if real then one should have heard at least a denial which is a Russian confirmation.

Kremlin: no 'detailed information' on reports Russian military medical facility hit in Western #Aleppo. Rpts say 1 nurse killed, 2 docs hurt

[OUTLAW 09]

If this keeps up the entire Russian naval aviation fleet will be lost by this aircraft carrier......

Splash one Su-33 Flanker. Russia just lost its second warplane in a month of Syria
http://wpo.st/A9VJ2

The pilot managed to eject himself before the crash.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/12/05/second-fighter-jet-from-admiral-kuznetsov-crashes-in-under-a-month …

The next version of Sukhoi will be fitted with a periscope.
#AdmiralKuznetsov

Russia's Ministry of Offense says its #Su33 fighter jet successfully fell into Mediterranean after skidding off #AdmiralKuznetsov

We should issue a warning to all fishermen in the Mediterranean to be careful of falling Sukhois from #AdmiralKuznetsov

. @mod_russia "Comrade Babayev, you are cleared for landing from me for the Kutznetsov"
*BOOOM*

[OUTLAW 09]

Unreal.
#Aleppo
#Grozny
https://lenta.ru/vojna/1999/12/06/grozny/ …

Those that do not leave by 11 Dec via the humanitarian corridors will be considered terrorists and rebels and must be destroyed....

Russian MoD 6.12.1999

From today...almost same wording as from 1999.......
Russia says will treat as terrorists rebels who refuse to leave Aleppo
http://reut.rs/2gsA5y4

[OUTLAW 09]

CNN
✔ @CNN The 7-year-old Syrian girl who held the world's attention with tweets from Aleppo has disappeared from social media
http://cnn.it/2gauChD

Area she was living in has been taken by Assad Shia militias and energy sources to charge cellphones and cell coverage are really bad....

No indication if mother and her three daughters are still alive....nothing even rom the rebel side...

@AlabedBana account was deleted. Her last tweet: "We are sure the army is capturing us now. We will see each other another day dear world."

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Heavy air strikes continue also on #Idlib city and other towns in the province.
Many dead & injured.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX9gUR64V60 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Over #Binnish City this morning.
The #Russian air force drops bombs on civilians in the town.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMKfrtrVA_s …

[OUTLAW 09]

THREE years later and a dollar short..........

.@JohnKerry tells #Saban16: Not enforcing #Syria redline in 2013 "cost" the U.S. considerably in the #MiddleEast region.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Rebels launched a counterattack in besieged Eastern #Aleppo and recaptured several locations from pro-#Assad forces.

Damascus: Rebels have killed several pro-#Assad forces at #Midaana village in Eastern #Ghouta.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.541037&lon=36.502419&z=14&m=b

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Aftermath of air strikes on besieged eastern #Aleppo this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaTCbShhbRE …

[OUTLAW 09]

NOT confirmed as of yet...Russian media has been exceptionally quiet...if real then one should have heard at least a denial which is a Russian confirmation.

Kremlin: no 'detailed information' on reports Russian military medical facility hit in Western #Aleppo. Rpts say 1 nurse killed, 2 docs hurt

Not funny:
When #Russia hits hospitals, German FM #Steinmeier blames #Assad.
When rebels hit a hospital, #Russia blames the #UK, #US and #France.

Russia|n Ministry of Defence: "#US ordered to kill #Russia|n medics in #Aleppo."

Aleppo: #Russia|n military field hospital for pro-#Assad forces in #Aleppo was destroyed today.

Confirmation that Russian troops are actually participating in the combat operations inside Aleppo....
BREAKING: Russian female army medic killed in Aleppo hospital shelling
http://rbth.com/news/2016/12/05/russian-female-army-medic-killed-in-aleppo-hospital-shelling_653685 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russa #Putin | Information War: Disinformation Corrupts the Internet in Russia’s Favor
https://codastory.com/disinformation-crisis/information-war/information-war-disinformation-corrupts-the-internet-in-russia-s-favor …

Reference "fake news".......
A better article about Flynn & Co | Incoming national security adviser's son spreads fake news about D.C. pizza shop
http://politi.co/2h96v4s

A gunman was arrested at a Washington, D.C. restaurant that’s been hounded by fake news conspiracy theorists
http://bit.ly/2gXUH2o

[OUTLAW 09]

If this keeps up the entire Russian naval aviation fleet will be lost by this aircraft carrier......

Splash one Su-33 Flanker. Russia just lost its second warplane in a month of Syria
http://wpo.st/A9VJ2

The pilot managed to eject himself before the crash.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/12/05/second-fighter-jet-from-admiral-kuznetsov-crashes-in-under-a-month …

The next version of Sukhoi will be fitted with a periscope.
#AdmiralKuznetsov

Russia's Ministry of Offense says its #Su33 fighter jet successfully fell into Mediterranean after skidding off #AdmiralKuznetsov

We should issue a warning to all fishermen in the Mediterranean to be careful of falling Sukhois from #AdmiralKuznetsov

. @mod_russia "Comrade Babayev, you are cleared for landing from me for the Kutznetsov"
*BOOOM*

A lot of truth in this comment......

The #AdmiralKuznetsov has now done more damage to Russian aviation than Turkey did.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Military map for besieged Eastern #Aleppo.

One resident describes tens of bodies out on the street near his house that can't be reached, further attacks on those that try.

Painful to hear Syrian contacts, who have seen so much, describe current situation as 'horrific' with real fear in their voice

[OUTLAW 09]

Replenishment at sea - Russian style. Back-to-back, with a tug to keep the two in a straight line.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #Russia|n @RT_com propaganda reporter was injured by rebel shelling in #Aleppo today.

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, Syrians saw right away that their struggles were linked with Ukraine's. It's a shame that Western leaders took so long to figure it out

AND they still have not yet figured it out.....based on their total inaction in the face of genocide...starvation in Syria and constant Russian attacks inside Ukraine...

[OUTLAW 09]

Not funny:
When #Russia hits hospitals, German FM #Steinmeier blames #Assad.
When rebels hit a hospital, #Russia blames the #UK, #US and #France.

Russia|n Ministry of Defence: "#US ordered to kill #Russia|n medics in #Aleppo."

Aleppo: #Russia|n military field hospital for pro-#Assad forces in #Aleppo was destroyed today.

Confirmation that Russian troops are actually participating in the combat operations inside Aleppo....
BREAKING: Russian female army medic killed in Aleppo hospital shelling
http://rbth.com/news/2016/12/05/russian-female-army-medic-killed-in-aleppo-hospital-shelling_653685 …

Russian MoD officially accused #USA in ordering killing of a Russian medic in Aleppo.
https://twitter.com/Repub_Breaking/status/805756059168231425 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian MoD officially accused #USA in ordering killing of a Russian medic in Aleppo.
https://twitter.com/Repub_Breaking/status/805756059168231425 …

Two Russian Military Medics Killed, Another Wounded After Field Hospital Shelled In Aleppo

Assad & #Putin trolls crying since the morning. Rebels busted their genocide party in Eastern #Aleppo & #Russia lost a jet & a "hospital".

[Azor]

What are your thoughts on Brad Hoff's Levant Report?

He is one commentator on the war who questions the existence of the Free Syrian Army in terms of its secular or moderate character, and is of the opinion that the Syrian armed opposition is comprised primarily of Islamists.

He also challenged Kyle W. Orton's knowledge of Syria (https://levantreport.com/tag/kyle-w-orton/) and the war, although he omitted that Orton had visited Lebanon and had contact with Syrian refugees.

As for Hoff's credentials, well, he is fluent in Arabic and lived in pre-war Syria for four years.

Timothy Heckenlively is also in Hoff's camp, knows basic Arabic and has traveled in Syria. Jack Murphy at SOFREP, who was dismissed by CrowBat, also knows basic Arabic, served in Iraq on multiple tours and was a trainer to the Iraqi Security Forces.

On the other side, we have Kyle W. Orton, who aside from some graduate work in Lebanon with refugees, has not visited Syria and may not speak even basic Arabic.

We also have Charles Lister, whose background is in international relations and security. He knows basic Arabic, but based out of Doha, it stands to reason that his information is filtered by Qatar, which is involved in the war.

The problem with Hoff and Heckenlively is that they both seem myopically focused on the state of Christians in Syria. While Christian civilians have come under attack from Islamists, Christian communities have largely sided with Assad, who is indiscriminately shelling and bombing Sunni communities. Therefore, attacks on Christians must be taken within the context of how the various ethnicities and sects are aligned.

But if Ottoman history is any guide, majority rule by Sunni Arabs will not be beneficial to Christians, Alawites, Druze or Kurds.

Lastly, the opinions of Orton and Lister must be seen in the context of their struggle against Iranian-Russian-Syrian disinformation (i.e. the denial of any moderate, secular or peaceful opposition), which might prompt them to overlook flaws in the FSA...

Thoughts?

[Azor]

What are your thoughts on Brad Hoff's Levant Report?

He is one commentator on the war who questions the existence of the Free Syrian Army in terms of its secular or moderate character, and is of the opinion that the Syrian armed opposition is comprised primarily of Islamists.

He also challenged Kyle W. Orton's knowledge of Syria (https://levantreport.com/tag/kyle-w-orton/) and the war, although he omitted that Orton had visited Lebanon and had contact with Syrian refugees.

As for Hoff's credentials, well, he is fluent in Arabic and lived in pre-war Syria for four years.

Timothy Heckenlively is also in Hoff's camp, knows basic Arabic and has traveled in Syria. Jack Murphy at SOFREP, who was dismissed by CrowBat, also knows basic Arabic, served in Iraq on multiple tours and was a trainer to the Iraqi Security Forces.

On the other side, we have Kyle W. Orton, who aside from some graduate work in Lebanon with refugees, has not visited Syria and may not speak even basic Arabic.

We also have Charles Lister, whose background is in international relations and security. He knows basic Arabic, but based out of Doha, it stands to reason that his information is filtered by Qatar, which is involved in the war.

The problem with Hoff and Heckenlively is that they both seem myopically focused on the state of Christians in Syria. While Christian civilians have come under attack from Islamists, Christian communities have largely sided with Assad, who is indiscriminately shelling and bombing Sunni communities. Therefore, attacks on Christians must be taken within the context of how the various ethnicities and sects are aligned.

But if Ottoman history is any guide, majority rule by Sunni Arabs will not be beneficial to Christians, Alawites, Druze or Kurds.

Lastly, the opinions of Orton and Lister must be seen in the context of their struggle against Iranian-Russian-Syrian disinformation (i.e. the denial of any moderate, secular or peaceful opposition), which might prompt them to overlook flaws in the FSA...

Thoughts?


With respect to Lister's objectivity, not only is he based in Doha, but he works for Brookings, which has received $15 million from Qatar from 2013-2015 (http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Truth_SuzanneMaloney_HFAC.pdf) in addition to funding by the UAE.

[CrowBat]

'Assad is regularly visiting Churches for Christmas'.... sigh... :rolleyes:

I have visited the country bout a dozen of times, and spent nearly 6 months in total there. I do not really speak any Arabic: I can read some, but talking-wise I can at best order myself a can of coke in that language. Sure, I have studied its military for... well, it's exactly 30 years, and could say a lot about it, no doubt. But, I am far from declaring myself any kind of 'expert' on Syria.

Nevertheless, I do feel to be in position to say: if this is the way Hoff's 'gauging' the Assadist regime, he's either plain dumb or a blind religious fanatic.

And re. 'are there flaws in the FSyA': not that they are directly comparable, but tell me, are there flaws in the Democratic or Republican parties of the USA...? Are there flaws in the US or any other military...?


With respect to Lister's objectivity, not only is he based in Doha, but he works for Brookings, which has received...And I didn't receive 1 cent from anybody. And still: I'm usually drawing similar conclusions to his, and that (usually) 12-24 months earlier.

So what?

[OUTLAW 09]

What are your thoughts on Brad Hoff's Levant Report?

He is one commentator on the war who questions the existence of the Free Syrian Army in terms of its secular or moderate character, and is of the opinion that the Syrian armed opposition is comprised primarily of Islamists.

He also challenged Kyle W. Orton's knowledge of Syria (https://levantreport.com/tag/kyle-w-orton/) and the war, although he omitted that Orton had visited Lebanon and had contact with Syrian refugees.

As for Hoff's credentials, well, he is fluent in Arabic and lived in pre-war Syria for four years.

Timothy Heckenlively is also in Hoff's camp, knows basic Arabic and has traveled in Syria. Jack Murphy at SOFREP, who was dismissed by CrowBat, also knows basic Arabic, served in Iraq on multiple tours and was a trainer to the Iraqi Security Forces.

On the other side, we have Kyle W. Orton, who aside from some graduate work in Lebanon with refugees, has not visited Syria and may not speak even basic Arabic.

We also have Charles Lister, whose background is in international relations and security. He knows basic Arabic, but based out of Doha, it stands to reason that his information is filtered by Qatar, which is involved in the war.

The problem with Hoff and Heckenlively is that they both seem myopically focused on the state of Christians in Syria. While Christian civilians have come under attack from Islamists, Christian communities have largely sided with Assad, who is indiscriminately shelling and bombing Sunni communities. Therefore, attacks on Christians must be taken within the context of how the various ethnicities and sects are aligned.

But if Ottoman history is any guide, majority rule by Sunni Arabs will not be beneficial to Christians, Alawites, Druze or Kurds.

Lastly, the opinions of Orton and Lister must be seen in the context of their struggle against Iranian-Russian-Syrian disinformation (i.e. the denial of any moderate, secular or peaceful opposition), which might prompt them to overlook flaws in the FSA...

Thoughts?

Azor...you ask some interesting questions.....

1. having spent time also in Iraq when the Iraqi Salafists and QJBR then AQI were basically running a phase 2 guerrilla war that no one and yes no one even on the SOF side saw it....and I caught massive pushback or repeatedly pointing it out....I greatly distrust anyone who states I was there speak some Arabic thus "I understand the ME"........

2. right now if we take just the work done by Lister...Orton....CrowBat....Hassan Hassan and Weiss for just say the last five years.....literally tons of articles and then compare them to other writers claiming to "know Syria" or the various Salafist groups as well as the moderate secular FSA and their reporting on the over 1000 Syrian self governing groups I then take them hands down.......

Their accuracy in naming the groups and sub groups and the twists and turns of what is ongoing inside cannot be matched by another group of writers or single writers......

I post them repeatedly just because of their accuracy.......

Just a side comment....I was writing a series of intel reports one day in a BCT TOC when the BCT intel officer was writing his monthly intel summary for Baqubah Diyala Province which in 2005/2006 was like the Wild West for insurgent activities....

Well anyway he asked me....do you have any idea why we see almost like clock work a series of insurgent attacks on five major ISF controlled checkpoints in Baqubah.....about every four weeks.....

Without looking up I said take a look at the targets...five different styles of control points .....the insurgents are graduating a trainee class and are doing a live fire attack exercise.....as they have been doing indoor dry fire training and need to finally conduct true attacks.....

His response...but they do take loses and wounded..my response...that is the guerrilla Darwinian principle at work....only the good ones make it onto the attack teams.....

His response...that is to simple and higher will not accept such a short explanation.....and he did not report it that way....actually he fudged around and never did accurately reflect what was happening on the ground......

WHICH flew in the face of my interrogation reports which in fact verified what I had said....because that was a question I placed to a Salafist we had picked up by "accident"....because I had spotted the guerrilla tactic and had in fact checked the five objectives....and had photos taken of them to confirm my thoughts...

I distrust to a degree many Syrian writers on a number of military type blogs...the group around Orton...Lister...Weiss....Hassan Hassan and CrowBat...inherently "know" the ground.....and basically reconfirm each other's analysis work and or sometimes critique each other which is academically healthy...

BTW Hassan Hassan and Orton as well as Lister have published a number of articles on what the ME might look like without IS the "day after"...and how the US has sided with the "wrong Kurdish group YPG/PKK" and they gain no traction in the US MSM.....

Azor....BTW.....I am probably the only SWJ commenter who has spent literally hours of face to face conversations with Salafists, Takfirists and Sunni secularist/nationalist insurgents....hours literally hours.....in Abu Ghraib and Baqubah Diyala Province...AND the only interrogator at that time using the Koran and Islam as the basis for those discussions......and that from someone who could not spell Koran before arriving in Iraq....I could even repeat the oath of allegiance of the Ansar al Sunnah a Kurdish/Sunni/Salafist Iraqi insurgent group......much to the surprise of those that we would capture from AAS.......

The Army interrogators were told to not use religion was a basis but how can one avoid religion in the ME??? Especially when Shia and Sunni's share the same areas....same towns...and sometimes share the same tribes.....???

[CrowBat]

Two Russian Military Medics Killed, Another Wounded After Field Hospital Shelled In Aleppo

Assad & #Putin trolls crying since the morning. Rebels busted their genocide party in Eastern #Aleppo & #Russia lost a jet & a "hospital".
The only commentary that comes to my mind in regards of this story about 'rebel attack on Russian military hospital' is: '...and I've had sexual relationship with Amanda Righetti...'

'nuf said.

***********

That said, the insurgents report they've had something like 'Grad Day' in Syria, yesterday.

Faylaq ash-Sham rocketed Nubl & Zahra in NW Aleppo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MzHcPceZcI)

JAI rocketed Nubl & Zahra (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObU4w5Keigg)

Jabhat ash-Shamiyya rocketed Tel ash-Sheikh Yusuf (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0AdS3HAEu0)

Jaysh Halab (new designation for FSyA coalition inside Eastern Aleppo) rocketed Aziza (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHua6dC8fQo)

Ahrar ash-Sham rocketed Fuah (northern Idlib) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vvp8AhAppg)

FASH rocketed Fuah & Kefraya (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4NuyEOSuDI)

Suqour ash-Sham rocketed Fuah & Kefraya (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQRiKcJL6m8)

Suqour ash-Sham rocketed 'Military Academy and Al-Hamdania Stadium' (in Western Aleppo) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atq8a8wTiuw)

JAM rocketed 'Military Academy' (they didn't say which) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFHO7NLPKA4)

If I'm to ask, this is just a waste of precious rockets. Deploying these to rocket Nayrab AB/Aleppo IAP, Hama AB, perhaps Kweres AB (if it's within range, at all) and especially the helidrome at as-Safira would be less spectacular, but would pay off in a far better fashion.

Namely, as-Safira is the place from where nearly 90% of helicopter strikes on Eastern Aleppo are launched. Kweres is the major hub for L-39s that are targeting Eastern Aleppo. And Hama and Nayrab are still launching sporadic air strikes too (say: 5-10 in total a day).

[OUTLAW 09]

Disinfo_Digest @Disinfo_Digest
The role of tech companies in the fight against #disinformation by @edwardlucas

[CrowBat]

Azor...you ask some interesting questions.....

1. having spent time also in Iraq when the Iraqi Salafists and QJBR then AQI were basically running a phase 2 guerrilla war that no one and yes no one even on the SOF side saw it....and I caught massive pushback or repeatedly pointing it out....I greatly distrust anyone who states I was there speak some Arabic thus "I understand the ME"........
Just one - related, I think - episode that occasionally comes to my mind...

It so happened that back on 4 July 2003, I was invited to the usual party at the local US embassy.

As of that time, I've spent exactly four days in Iraq - and that during the times while Saddam was still in power, years earlier. I was not the least interested into 'everyday politics' or actually really interested into what is going on in Iraq. My core interest were (and remain) 'air forces and air wars'. It just so happened that through monitoring what the IrAF was doing (or not at all) during the US-led invasion of Iraq and immediately afterwards, I found out there the Ba'ath began setting up local HQs at local Ba'ath offices, turned off all of its Turya sat-phones at the same time, began using couriers for comms instead, began organizing first attacks on different checkpoints etc.

Anyway, at some point in time during that party, I found myself chatting with (one of) US Army Attachés, and then spontaneously blurting the sentence, 'You're rapidly losing control of the situation (in Iraq)'.

While I was still startled with what I said (and how frankly), he just looked me into eyes, then nodded in confirmation.

Whatever: is it so that one must've been there in order to know what's going on? Is 'been there' making anybody 'right' or 'wrong'...?

15-20 years ago, I would definitely say (even insist), 'yes, that's crucial'. Even today, I would say that 'been there' is very important for understanding what's going on, for getting the 'picture' of people and (especially) terrain. But, many things have changed in these 'internet times': IMHO, nowadays it's far more important to have 'right contacts in right places' - and some sort of 'secure' or at least 'not too obvious' comms to the people in question.

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Two Russian Military Medics Killed, Another Wounded After Field Hospital Shelled In Aleppo

Assad & #Putin trolls crying since the morning. Rebels busted their genocide party in Eastern #Aleppo & #Russia lost a jet & a "hospital".

The killed #Russian medics in #Aleppo were from Byrobidzhan. A settlement of deported Jews in Far-East. Next to Japan & China.

UN comments based on the Russian complaints of their hospital being hit...

IRC told RF agencies attck suggestd parties cd not “fulfill their duties” 2 protct medicl staff, patients, hospitals https://themoscowtimes.com/news/moscow-condemns-cynical-red-cross-comments-on-death-of-russian-medics-56426 …

Russian Def Ministry is deeply offended by Red Cross' "cynical" response, accuses of "indifference" against Russians http://www.interfax.ru/world/540024

MAYBE it was the Russian air strikes on anything that looks and acts like a Syria hospital ......

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Syria New 360° video shows destruction in Sha'ar district in east #Aleppo city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tay7cJcTYE0 …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.208460&lon=37.186124&z=16&m=b

While #Russia & #China vetoed #UNSC resolution to suspend #Aleppo bombings #PutinAssad used banned incendiary bombs against #Syria civilians

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BTW...we seem to have similar problems with Us Senators and Congressmen "knowing everything"??????

The last time I checked Crimea was militarily annexed by Russia and was Ukrainian to begin with.......

JUST another example of US Congressmen who cannot seem to get history/geography correct these days....BUT it is definitely better than Congressman Rohrbacher who called the Ukrainian government Nazi"s....two years ago because he had received a large supporter donation from Russia....AND never admitted it came rom Russia.....

Pro-Putin congressman says he is on Secretary of State list http://politi.co/2fPdle2

Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter offers Ukraine exchange:Crimea for peace in Donbas + weapons from US.
WTH? http://sprotyv.info/ru/news/kiev/tor...medium=twitter …

BTW....none of this which was carried on the internet ever made it into the US MSM reporting...ever wonder why????

[OUTLAW 09]

Just one - related, I think - episode that occasionally comes to my mind...

It so happened that back on 4 July 2003, I was invited to the usual party at the local US embassy.

As of that time, I've spent exactly four days in Iraq - and that during the times while Saddam was still in power, years earlier. I was not the least interested into 'everyday politics' or actually really interested into what is going on in Iraq. My core interest were (and remain) 'air forces and air wars'. It just so happened that through monitoring what the IrAF was doing (or not at all) during the US-led invasion of Iraq and immediately afterwards, I found out there the Ba'ath began setting up local HQs at local Ba'ath offices, turned off all of its Turya sat-phones at the same time, began using couriers for comms instead, began organizing first attacks on different checkpoints etc.

CrowBat....you are totally correct...it is the contacts on the ground that are the most important...the internet is great to then do fact checking using open source analysis but only after the ground info comes in...

In some ways the Russian shot down of MH17 and their physical invasion

Anyway, at some point in time during that party, I found myself chatting with (one of) US Army Attachs, and then spontaneously blurting the sentence, 'You're rapidly losing control of the situation (in Iraq)'.

While I was still startled with what I said (and how frankly), he just looked me into eyes, then nodded in confirmation.

Whatever: is it so that one must've been there in order to know what's going on? Is 'been there' making anybody 'right' or 'wrong'...?

15-20 years ago, I would definitely say (even insist), 'yes, that's crucial'. Even today, I would say that 'been there' is very important for understanding what's going on, for getting the 'picture' of people and (especially) terrain. But, many things have changed in these 'internet times': IMHO, nowadays it's far more important to have 'right contacts in right places' - and some sort of 'secure' or at least 'not too obvious' comms to the people in question.

CrowBat.....you are 500% correct...the ground contacts are the most important pieces of a puzzle...then using the open source analysis ability of the internet to confirm and or deny....

With the Russian shot down of MH17 and their physical invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine and now in Syria the open source intel analysis of internet commenting has taken on a complete new dimension these days...especially if coupled with ground sources....

Example...
Something is very wrong here. #Russian medical camp in #Aleppo. Plenty stuff for OSINT & geolocation.
https://twitter.com/MH17_RUS/status/805814720603291652 …

Comment was posted by a long time Ukrainian commenter and open source analyst.....Russians claimed they were treating civilians...children and Assad military but nowhere to be seen in this drone photo...WHAT is interesting is that the Russians admitted mortars hit the admission area of the field hospital which is not setup to the standard Russian Army configuration....

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Russia doesn't have to "win"-just stay: Aleppo's fall would be win for Russia, defeat for U.S. in Mideast
http://reut.rs/2gJNcxT

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Charles Lister
✔ @Charles_Lister Ironically though, both CIA & DoD have said the fall of #Aleppo would represent a major dent to our CT fight.

Yet no response whatsoever...

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Central #Aleppo yesterday in one pic:
Left: #Rebel mortar on a regime frontline position
Right: #AssadPutin air strike on a central district

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REALLY worth reading.........

Raise of #RussianJihad as political doctrine to command & conquer as obscured faith.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/third-rome-rising-the-ideologues-calling-new-russian-empire-16748 …

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Aleppo : Opposition liberated the Ophtalmology hospital, Al_Myassar the Al Hawut roundabout and took five prisoners.

A voice interception between Assad senior officers stating that the displaced civilians should be bombed as they are in the open......placed on the internet today.....

[OUTLAW 09]

BreakingFootage
Rural #Idlib province tonight.
The #Russian regime burns #Syria. Literally.
Hear civilians scream.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEJzT-H7iwY …

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat.....you are 500% correct...the ground contacts are the most important pieces of a puzzle...then using the open source analysis ability of the internet to confirm and or deny....

With the Russian shot down of MH17 and their physical invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine and now in Syria the open source intel analysis of internet commenting has taken on a complete new dimension these days...especially if coupled with ground sources....

Example...
Something is very wrong here. #Russian medical camp in #Aleppo. Plenty stuff for OSINT & geolocation.
https://twitter.com/MH17_RUS/status/805814720603291652 …

Comment was posted by a long time Ukrainian commenter and open source analyst.....Russians claimed they were treating civilians...children and Assad military but nowhere to be seen in this drone photo...WHAT is interesting is that the Russians admitted mortars hit the admission area of the field hospital which is not setup to the standard Russian Army configuration....

NewsMap
#Russian "media" needed footage of the #Aleppo military hospital shelling ...
So they just staged it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x6TNWmUM30 …

NOTICE the fire in the lower right side photo...NO mortar damage to the tents that were supposedly targeted...SO a Russian started fire????

False flag?????

[CrowBat]

CrowBat.....you are 500% correct...the ground contacts are the most important pieces of a puzzle...then using the open source analysis ability of the internet to confirm and or deny....
Exactly like that. Benefit: over the time it's getting crystal clear what sources are good and what not.

Of course, attempting to explain this to some 'uninformed third person'... is... well, anything else than 'easy'.

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Proof Obama got taken to the cleaners by Iran on the Iran deal.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/05/trump-team-wants-you-to-see-the-iran-nuke-documents-obama-s-kept-from-view.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Just received audio from E Aleppo:"It's all correct, unfortunately, all went, we used all the munition & weapons, all went now, we will die"

The question is how many of the former 8000-9000 rebels are left in Eastern #Aleppo. The ammunition is out. https://twitter.com/Interbrigades/status/806171077772709888 …

BREAKING: Russian defense ministry says Syrian government forces have taken full control over five more districts of eastern Aleppo - media

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Russia's hybrid warfare as byproduct of Russian hybrid state. Great piece by @MarkGaleotti

http://warontherocks.com/2016/12/russias-hybrid-war-as-a-byproduct-of-a-hybrid-state/ …

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CIT (en) @CITeam_en
Kavkaz.Realii footage: Chechen military police at Russia's main Chechnya base in Khankala going off to Syria (video)
http://www.kavkazr.com/a/hankala-chechentsev-otpravlyayut-sluzhit-v-siriyu/28159413.html …

Aleppo: Pro-#Assad forces have (re)captured the #Aleppo National Hospital (Eye Clinic).

Idlib: Rebels shelling #Fuah and #Kefraya with rockets today.

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Aleppo: Turkish army convoy with tanks arrived near #Al_Bab.

Aleppo: Turkish F-16 warplanes bombed #YPG west of #Manbij.

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Russian Army medic in white overall & AK over the shoulder mending wounded Russian comrade. No medikit! https://twitter.com/pharaon01/status/805803442816122885 …

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It looks like the US wasn't invited to the latest round of Syria peace talks in Turkey
http://read.bi/2hdl4A6

Aleppo: New funeral for #YPG militants killed by #FSA & Turkish army west of #Manbij. #Al_Bab

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Anger 4 #Aleppo": Zinki (#JaF) starting operations in N. #Idlib countryside shelling Fuah-Kefraya fortifications w/ a wave of Lava rockets.

Tell Shughib is another place with huge concentration of Regime heavy equipment (24 armours visible) SE. of #Aleppo.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.133291&lon=37.248711&z=17&m …

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: pro-Regime forces were unable to break Rebel 1st defense line in NW. part of Ancient City, while they are progressing on NE. side.

Aleppo: Free Idlib Army shelled pro-Regime forces in Al-Zahraa neighbourhood with a wave of Grad rockets.

"Anger for #Aleppo": Jaish Al-Islam started to shell several pro-Regime locations in #Latakia countryside with waves of Grad rockets.

W. #Aleppo: Safwah Battalions destroyed with a #TOW a position with 14.5 mm gun on #Menyan front. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.188875&lon=37.083664&z=13&m …

Aleppo: heavy clashes on Al-Zahraa front as Rebels deployed T-55, T-62, 106 recoiless rifle & AA 23 mm gun to pound Regime fortifications.

Aleppo: pro-Regime forces using Radio Tower of Saad Al-Ansari to shell with artillery Rebel positions, 450 m away. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.193291&lon=37.134240&z=16&m …

Underground warfare in E. #Damascus: Faylaq Al-Rahman located & blew up main Regime tunnel on #Jobar front.

Aleppo: VBIED attack vs pro-Regime forces inside Al-Zahraa neighbourhood.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.224473&lon=37.094650&z=14&m …

"Anger for #Aleppo": Sham Front shelling Hezbollah fortifications in outskirts of Zahraa with a 106 mm gun mounted on #Iran|ian Safir Jeep.

"Anger for #Aleppo": Ahrar Al-Sham shelled with Grad rockets & heavy artillery #Iran|ian militias in several locations in city & countryside

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A #Assad #SAA special forces classified operation in progress: steal everything u find, ACs are particularly interesting! #Aleppo #Syria

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Russian Army medic in white overall & AK over the shoulder mending wounded Russian comrade. No medikit! https://twitter.com/pharaon01/status/805803442816122885 …

The sickest joke ever. Picture of killed medics in #Aleppo turns out to be stock photo from Germany & an actress.
https://twitter.com/noodleremover/status/806203175560708096 …

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Aleppo: Pro-#Assad forces will try to lift the #Fuah and #Kefraya siege after the #Aleppo battle.

Idlib: 1000s of #Assad & #Hezbollah militants are still in #Fuah and #Kefraya. #Iran|ian planes dropping weapons there every day.

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Russia courts neo-Nazi groups in US as they do in Europe. B4 Spencer, fascist Dugin spoke @ Texas re "American Liberalism Must Be Destroyed"

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So, are #Turkey & #EU ready for 1.5 million more #Syria|n refugees from #Idlib Province?

[Azor]

I do feel to be in position to say: if this is the way Hoff's 'gauging' the Assadist regime, he's either plain dumb or a blind religious fanatic.

I wouldn’t say that Hoff is supportive of Assad so much as he is dismissive of the Sunni Arab rebels and sympathetic to the Christians, ignoring the wider historical context of Syrian communal relations.


And re. 'are there flaws in the FSyA': not that they are directly comparable, but tell me, are there flaws in the Democratic or Republican parties of the USA...? Are there flaws in the US or any other military...?

A more apt comparison would be between the Free Syrian Army and the White Army during the Russian Civil War. Unfortunately, winning both the war and the peace will require an ideological unity that the FSA does not posses at present. A common desire to oust Assad and expel the Iranians is not sufficient; there must be an agreed-upon platform for the day after Assad is gone.


And I didn't receive 1 cent from anybody. And still: I'm usually drawing similar conclusions to his, and that (usually) 12-24 months earlier.

Nevertheless, Qatar's intervention in Syria, Libya and Egypt, as well as its unabashed support for the Muslim Brotherhood, should be taken into consideration when receiving information from a source based in Qatar and reliant upon Qatari funding, no? After all, the Qataris have been rebuked by the Saudis...


Anyway, at some point in time during that party, I found myself chatting with (one of) US Army Attachés, and then spontaneously blurting the sentence, 'You're rapidly losing control of the situation (in Iraq)'. While I was still startled with what I said (and how frankly), he just looked me into eyes, then nodded in confirmation.

Was this before or after the CPA's Orders No. 1 and 2?

The CIA, State Department and many within the Defense Department knew that de-Ba’athification would be a disaster – and it was. The insurgency against coalition forces began within days of the anti-Ba’ath purge. The CPA blindly executed the OSP’s plan despite opposition, including the removal of the CPA’s first administrator, and it took over 4 years of casualties before the US began working to undo the damage. Petraeus was a fixer, not a strategic genius...


Even today, I would say that 'been there' is very important for understanding what's going on, for getting the 'picture' of people and (especially) terrain. But, many things have changed in these 'internet times': IMHO, nowadays it's far more important to have 'right contacts in right places' - and some sort of 'secure' or at least 'not too obvious' comms to the people in question.

I agree that the internet and social media permit a closer and rawer look at distant events as they unfold but are also more susceptible to deliberate misinformation as well. There are tweets, videos and posts tailored to every viewpoint, unfortunately.

Most of the Western commentators who question the existence of the FSA are actually stuck in the past:


CIA coup d'etats against various governments during the Cold War
CIA support for terrorists who are portrayed as "freedom fighters" to the public (e.g. Contras, UNITA, KLA)
The fake intelligence used to justify the AUMF in Iraq
The overthrow of Qaddafi under the aegis of "responsibility to protect" and a NFZ
The misconception that the CIA supported Al Qaeda and the Taliban during the Soviet-Afghan War
Official lies and cover-ups during the wars in Indochina
The perception that Sunni Arabs are incapable of liberal democracy based upon the Islamist-secular authoritarian dichotomy of the past and present


As for Jack Murphy at SOFREP, the fact is that his narrative conflates the DOD’s program of training and equipping moderate/secular Sunni Arabs in Jordan and Turkey to fight Daesh exclusively, with the CIA’s program of supplying weaponry to Sunni Arab rebels who are fighting Assad, and who the CIA has determined to be moderate/secular.

Because the CIA program proved relatively successful in terms of stopping the Assadist advance and allowing the rebels to drive into Latakia in 2015, the DOD program was a failure. Clearly, the Sunni Arabs in the west of the country where the FSA is based, consider Assad a greater threat and are unwilling to fight Daesh whilst ignoring Assad’s depredations.

The whole point of my post is that we always have to be mindful of bias, not merely the blatant lies of those with opposing views. For someone who is “far from declaring” yourself as an expert, you refer to those with different opinions or observations as “plain dumb” or “a blind religious fanatic” or “an uninformed third person”.

You claim that your knowledge of the war’s dynamics are from personal contacts in the SyAAF made over decades as well as other Syrians who are still in Syria, presumably. But do these sources not have their own biases?

Ultimately, my concern stems from your glosses of history, specifically with regard to the Sunni-Shia divide and the rule of the Assads.

Where you see bloodletting instigated deliberately by the Assads, I see yet another example of minority rule collapsing. Where you see a Hitler, I see a dictator who is in far less control and is far less bloodthirsty than Hussein was. Where you see only Shia and Iranian supremacy, I see but one offensive in an ongoing conflict that includes the Iran-Iraq War, in which chemical weapons were used on Iranian civilians to a degree that would make Assad blush.

[Azor]

Azor...you ask some interesting questions.....

1. having spent time also in Iraq when the Iraqi Salafists and QJBR then AQI were basically running a phase 2 guerrilla war that no one and yes no one even on the SOF side saw it....and I caught massive pushback or repeatedly pointing it out....I greatly distrust anyone who states I was there speak some Arabic thus "I understand the ME"....

I agree that exposure is not the same as knowledge, and intelligence requires the ability to acquire and apply one’s knowledge in a rapid manner, similar to OODA.


2. right now if we take just the work done by Lister...Orton....CrowBat....Hassan Hassan and Weiss for just say the last five years.....literally tons of articles and then compare them to other writers claiming to "know Syria" or the various Salafist groups as well as the moderate secular FSA and their reporting on the over 1000 Syrian self governing groups I then take them hands down.......Their accuracy in naming the groups and sub groups and the twists and turns of what is ongoing inside cannot be matched by another group of writers or single writers......I post them repeatedly just because of their accuracy.......

Basically, I am hesitant to accept any glosses of the opposition, because it is so diverse. You yourself have stated that the FSA includes Islamist units and that supposedly Islamist rebel coalitions (not JFS or Daesh) include moderate/secular units. Brennan and others at the CIA clearly believe in the FSA, but we would have to acknowledge that the CIA must have reasonable cause to discriminate on a unit-by-unit basis in terms of due diligence and approval for arms transfers. Unfortunately, civil wars are historically won by groups that are ideologically unified and operationally cohesive.


Just a side comment....I was writing a series of intel reports one day in a BCT TOC when the BCT intel officer was writing his monthly intel summary for Baqubah Diyala Province which in 2005/2006 was like the Wild West for insurgent activities....

Well anyway he asked me....do you have any idea why we see almost like clock work a series of insurgent attacks on five major ISF controlled checkpoints in Baqubah.....about every four weeks.....

Without looking up I said take a look at the targets...five different styles of control points .....the insurgents are graduating a trainee class and are doing a live fire attack exercise.....as they have been doing indoor dry fire training and need to finally conduct true attacks.....

His response...but they do take loses and wounded..my response...that is the guerrilla Darwinian principle at work....only the good ones make it onto the attack teams.....

His response...that is to simple and higher will not accept such a short explanation.....and he did not report it that way....actually he fudged around and never did accurately reflect what was happening on the ground......

WHICH flew in the face of my interrogation reports which in fact verified what I had said....because that was a question I placed to a Salafist we had picked up by "accident"....because I had spotted the guerrilla tactic and had in fact checked the five objectives....and had photos taken of them to confirm my thoughts...

Yes, thank you Wolfowitz, Feith, Chalabi, et al, for the insurgency.

Sometimes the simplest explanation is...


I distrust to a degree many Syrian writers on a number of military type blogs...the group around Orton...Lister...Weiss....Hassan Hassan and CrowBat...inherently "know" the ground.....and basically reconfirm each other's analysis work and or sometimes critique each other which is academically healthy...BTW Hassan Hassan and Orton as well as Lister have published a number of articles on what the ME might look like without IS the "day after"...and how the US has sided with the "wrong Kurdish group YPG/PKK" and they gain no traction in the US MSM.....

Orton’s Twitter exchange with Hoff doesn’t indicate that the former is very inviting of critiques. As for CB, well, he can be quite the curmudgeon, but I suppose that personal attachments to the issues and the unending ideological warfare of the internet can do that.

Clearly, the CIA and DOD disagree over the YPG, which is why TOWs go to the FSA and not the YPG. Now, there are US SOFs embedded with the YPG and a certain amount of CAS deployed on their behalf, but only insofar as Daesh is concerned. Therefore, the YPG is not trusted beyond its willingness to fight Daesh.

Why are there no SOFs embedded with the FSA (unverifiable given that these would be seconded to the CIA SAD and not acknowledged)? Well, it is probably a combination of:


Washington not wanting to be seen as being behind the rebellion and engaged in ousting Assad from the beginning
Fear that US personnel will be captured, killed or injured by pro-regime forces
Fear that Islamists within the FSA can turn on US personnel or that Islamists can infiltrate the FSA to do the same
De-confliction with Russian and Iranian SOFs, which are on the ground fighting for Assad



Azor....BTW.....I am probably the only SWJ commenter who has spent literally hours of face to face conversations with Salafists, Takfirists and Sunni secularist/nationalist insurgents....hours literally hours.....in Abu Ghraib and Baqubah Diyala Province...AND the only interrogator at that time using the Koran and Islam as the basis for those discussions......and that from someone who could not spell Koran before arriving in Iraq....I could even repeat the oath of allegiance of the Ansar al Sunnah a Kurdish/Sunni/Salafist Iraqi insurgent group......much to the surprise of those that we would capture from AAS....The Army interrogators were told to not use religion was a basis but how can one avoid religion in the ME??? Especially when Shia and Sunni's share the same areas....same towns...and sometimes share the same tribes.....???

But you would have to admit that others with your experience are continuing to serve either in-theater (CIA, DOD) or stateside (DOS, DOD, think tanks) and leveraging their experience as part of US policy and execution, no? Their opinions are classified at present, but would you say that they broadly agree with your desire to provide more support for the FSA and that Obama is hamstringing the effort, or that they are reserved about dialing up the weapons?

[CrowBat]

Just received audio from E Aleppo:"It's all correct, unfortunately, all went, we used all the munition & weapons, all went now, we will die"

The question is how many of the former 8000-9000 rebels are left in Eastern #Aleppo. The ammunition is out. https://twitter.com/Interbrigades/status/806171077772709888 …

BREAKING: Russian defense ministry says Syrian government forces have taken full control over five more districts of eastern Aleppo - media
Well, I do not think the Russian MOD considers these 'Syrian government forces'... perhaps for PR-purposes, but otherwise - surely not.

See here:
U.S. Shut Out of Turkey, Russia, Rebel Peace Talks (http://www.businessinsider.de/turkey-syria-talks-ankara-2016-12?r=UK&IR=T)

The US was shut out of a new round of secret negotiations between Russia and Syrian rebel factions hosted by Turkish officials in Ankara, a source within the Syrian opposition#told Business Insider on Monday.

The opposition source, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the negotiations, said American officials were not invited to take part in the talks due to recent tensions between Turkey and the US.

"The US is totally out of these talks," the source said. "And they're pretty angry about it."
...

Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, did not say last week#whether Russian officials were negotiating with Syrian opposition factions#in Ankara.
"We need no mediators with the Syrian opposition, we have direct contacts," he told the Russian news agency TASS.

Among those present at the Ankara talks, according to the opposition source, were representatives from the Islamist rebel coalition Ahrar al-Sham. The#Islamist al-Zenki rebel faction, which#received US-made anti-tank missiles between#2014 and 2015, was also present — reportedly at Russia's invitation.

The talks have been aimed at securing a deal to#deliver humanitarian aid#into eastern Aleppo — the Syrian city that has been besieged and#under relentless aerial bombardment for more than#three weeks — in exchange for the evacuation of extremists groups like former Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS).

“Russia has indicated it would be willing to accept aid access and local council control of the east, in return for JFS's withdrawal,” Charles Lister, a Syria researcher with close ties the opposition, tweeted on Saturday.
...

Further complicating the negotiations is the feeling that Russia — which changed the tide of the war when it intervened on behalf of Assad in October 2015#— may be#losing influence in Aleppo.

"The Russians would prefer to have a ceasefire, to help their relations with Turkey and show they are interested in peace, but the regime and the Iranians – they don’t care,"#Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat who is now political adviser to the opposition High Negotiations Committee, told The Guardian last week.

"They want to take all of Aleppo,"#Barabandi said. "For the Russians, failing to achieve a ceasefire in Aleppo will show just how weak they are."
Bottom line: and I said this already so often, Russians have no say there, actually. But, they act as if they do.

Therefore, this 'Battle for Aleppo' is now actually a 'race against the time' - especially for the IRGC, but for the Russians, and the Jaysh Halab too. The IRGC wants to defeat insurgents before Russians reach any kind of an agreement. That's why they're attacking so much.

[CrowBat]

So, are #Turkey & #EU ready for 1.5 million more #Syria|n refugees from #Idlib Province?
Turkey - might be. Our MSM here is currently doing its best to busy itself with completely ignoring developments in Aleppo. The ORF (Austrian State Broadcasting Corp.) didn't report a single word about Syria since more than two weeks.

There will be a very rude awakening when it falls...

**********


As for CB, well, he can be quite the curmudgeon, but I suppose that personal attachments to the issues and the unending ideological warfare of the internet can do that.
'Personal attachments': yes, I've certainly got a dose of that. After all, a number of my Syrian friends were disappeared by the Air Force Intelligence in the early hours of 1 January 2008. Only one was ever heard ever since (about two years ago, and still incarcerated).

That said, I do not 'feel' (if you like), this is influencing me as much as my experiences from back in 2002. At that time, I was involved in preparing those 'funny little information booklets' about various countries that are then distributed to... well... personnel of specific US military branch when they are deployed abroad.

The last topic involving me was Iraq. Everything went nice and fine because I knew the ORBATs for the Iraqi Army and/or Air Force by heart already then. But, one of sub-chapters was dealing with WMDs: at the end of the same, I wrote that none were left (i.e. that perhaps 100Kg of Sarin produced back in 1987 or whatever, were missing, but even if still around - long since useless).

Those who asked me to help them prepare the text in question insisted in fashion like, 'but, President said...and Secretary of State said...' etc. When I replied that (citing myself) this is simply wrong, I was fired without further explanation.

I didn't say a single word back then: guess, I was too shocked by sheer stupidity of such behaviour.

To make sure: I have no illusions. I'm perfectly aware of the fact that I'm nobody important: I wasn't important back then, and I'm not important now either. And I don't feel I can do more but rant on 2-3 different internet forums.

But, I promised myself never to fall silent again, and I keep my promises.

[Azor]

According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_Halab), Jaysh Halab, which is coordinating the rebel response to the Assadist offensive as of December 1, is comprised of 9 Islamist units and 3 FSA units (1st Regiment, 16th Division and Sultan Murad Division).

Yet the 16th Division has ceased to exist since July, the Sultan Murad Division is not the most savory or inclusive of the FSA's units, and I have no information as to the 1st Regiment. As for the Levant Front, it is Islamist, aligned with JFS and cannot be considered part of the FSA at this point, although some sub-groups may be moderate/secular.

AAS commanders seem to be in charge of both Jaysh Halab and the Levant Front. Is there any credence to the claim that after the Summer, the battles in Aleppo have been between Assadist and Islamist forces in the main?

[Azor]

'Personal attachments': yes, I've certainly got a dose of that. After all, a number of my Syrian friends were disappeared by the Air Force Intelligence in the early hours of 1 January 2008. Only one was ever heard ever since (about two years ago, and still incarcerated).

That is unfortunate. As I said in a prior reply to you, if a person is being murdered by the state, he or she takes little comfort in knowing that the state only plans to murder 100, 1,000 or 10,000 people as opposed to 100,000 or 1,000,000...


That said, I do not 'feel' (if you like), this is influencing me as much as my experiences from back in 2002. At that time, I was involved in preparing those 'funny little information booklets' about various countries that are then distributed to... well... personnel of specific US military branch when they are deployed abroad.

The Pentagon has always ensured that those forces deployed overseas have a thorough understanding of the local society and culture... ;)


The last topic involving me was Iraq. Everything went nice and fine because I knew the ORBATs for the Iraqi Army and/or Air Force by heart already then. But, one of sub-chapters was dealing with WMDs: at the end of the same, I wrote that none were left (i.e. that perhaps 100Kg of Sarin produced back in 1987 or whatever, were missing, but even if still around - long since useless). Those who asked me to help them prepare the text in question insisted in fashion like, 'but, President said...and Secretary of State said...' etc. When I replied that (citing myself) this is simply wrong, I was fired without further explanation. I didn't say a single word back then: guess, I was too shocked by sheer stupidity of such behaviour.

The Office of Special Plans was not to be deterred, was it?

The cause of non-proliferation would have been better served in Iran, North Korea or Pakistan. In the case of Iraq, its unresolved status since 1991, possession of oil and gas, and strategic location in the heart of the Middle East made it an inviting target for those who thought that they could transform it into a more prosperous version of Jordan...

To make sure: I have no illusions. I'm perfectly aware of the fact that I'm nobody important: I wasn't important back then, and I'm not important now either. And I don't feel I can do more but rant on 2-3 different internet forums.

But, I promised myself never to fall silent again, and I keep my promises.[/QUOTE]

[CrowBat]

I wouldn’t say that Hoff is supportive of Assad so much as he is dismissive of the Sunni Arab rebels and sympathetic to the Christians, ignoring the wider historical context of Syrian communal relations....then Hoff is simply a naive and ignorant fool.

Show him this (https://twitter.com/putintintin1/status/798233811867893760) (Brig Gen 'Botox' Hussain - CO 'Tiger Force' - slamming TV-reporter Shadi Hulwe for calling 'Long Live Syria', and yelling at him that 'Syria is Bashar'), and this (https://twitter.com/ShamiRebel/status/673569871846842368).


Nevertheless, Qatar's intervention in Syria, Libya and Egypt, as well as its unabashed support for the Muslim Brotherhood, should be taken into consideration when receiving information from a source based in Qatar and reliant upon Qatari funding, no?Nope. Because his work is paid for by the Swiss, Norwegians etc.


After all, the Qataris have been rebuked by the Saudis...They were - 2-3 years ago. The situation changed meanwhile, too.


Was this before or after the CPA's Orders No. 1 and 2?Most of what I described was 'before'. The 4 July party was 'after', of course.


Most of the Western commentators who question the existence of the FSA are actually stuck in the past:
...which is just the same 'repeating of old mistakes' like back in 2002.

It never stops amazing me how 'Americans' are entirely unable to learn from their own mistakes in such cases.


The whole point of my post is that we always have to be mindful of bias, not merely the blatant lies of those with opposing views. For someone who is “far from declaring” yourself as an expert, you refer to those with different opinions or observations as “plain dumb” or “a blind religious fanatic” or “an uninformed third person”.Yup. Because it's fundamental stupidity to - just for example - do such things like completely ignore interests of majority of the local population, completely ignore massive terror exercised by the regime (so also against local Christians) etc., or declare the biggest segement of the opposition for 'non-existing' - just because this is piss-poor at PR.


You claim that your knowledge of the war’s dynamics are from personal contacts in the SyAAF made over decades as well as other Syrians who are still in Syria, presumably. But do these sources not have their own biases?Sure. Indeed, I would describe them as 'extremely biased': some are so staunchly pro-Assad (or have to present themselves as such), they consider him a 'God'. And others can't stop spitting at the entire system.

Frankly: can't care less about their POVs - as long as the info they supply is good.


Ultimately, my concern stems from your glosses of history, specifically with regard to the Sunni-Shia divide and the rule of the Assads.

Where you see bloodletting instigated deliberately by the Assads, I see yet another example of minority rule collapsing. Where you see a Hitler, I see a dictator who is in far less control and is far less bloodthirsty than Hussein was...
Sigh... that cynical jerk is sitting there atop what is de-facto a giant concentration camp, in which his thugs can do whatever they like to do. Sure, he can't even afford paying them any more: the IRGC is doing that since years instead. Which means that he's actually little else but an IRGC-puppet.

But again: what is done in his name, is done by thugs that consider him a God of sort. And, as already explained, the fact the Iraqis gased more Iranians than Assadist thugs gased Syrians (or Nazis holocaused more Jews and others) is based solely on Assadists lacking the means to do the same.

Means not they wouldn't like to do so - if they only could.


Where you see only Shia and Iranian supremacy, I see but one offensive in an ongoing conflict that includes the Iran-Iraq War, in which chemical weapons were used on Iranian civilians to a degree that would make Assad blush...Now you're falling for IRGC's own legends.

Syrians that rose against Assad in 2011 did so for the very same reason Iranians rose against the IRGC-controlled regime in Tehran, two years earlier. That was no part of the 'eternal Shi'a-Sunni war'.

[CrowBat]

According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_Halab), Jaysh Halab, which is coordinating the rebel response to the Assadist offensive as of December 1, is comprised of 9 Islamist units and 3 FSA units (1st Regiment, 16th Division and Sultan Murad Division)....Gave up trying to correct the Wikipedia about 10 years ago....

Anyway: Jaysh Halab consists of:

- Fawj al-Awal (1st Regiment), FSyA
- JAM (Jaysh al-Mujahidden), FSyA
- Safwa Battalions, FSyA
- 16 Division (this is a part of that unit left behind; the part of this division outside Aleppo was meanwhile reorganized into something else, about a month ago... it's late here, and I can't recall right now), FSyA
- Sultan Murad Division, FSyA

Islamist groups were (or still are) such like the HNAZ (Harakat Noureddin az-Zenghi) and its Abu Amara Battalions, JAI (Jaysh al-Islam), AAS (Ahrar ash-Sham), Faylaq ash-Sham (destroyed in attack by HNAZ and JFS, few days ago), and Jabhat ash-Shamia.

Commander of the Jaysh Halab is Gen ABu Abdel Rahman Nour (FSyA) and his Military Commander is Abu Bashir Ma'are (unclear; could be AAS).

The most powerful between these units is precisely the one about which you have no info about: namely, the Fawj al-Awal. They were not only vetted by the CIA, and - together with Safwas - equipped with TOWs (here an example of the latter using a TOW today (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voIn-7zNMOw)), but also the 'power-brokers' in Aleppo.


Is there any credence to the claim that after the Summer, the battles in Aleppo have been between Assadist and Islamist forces in the main?No. Indeed, not a trace.

Firstly: there are very few 'Assadist' militias deployed in Aleppo area. The only ones around right now are the Quwwat Nimr (Tiger Force) and Liwa Suqour as-Sahra. Actually, the entire 'regime-controlled' part of Aleppo Governorate is under IRGC's control, and over 90% of troops there are IRGC (incl. Liwa Fatimioun), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Harakat Hezbollah (Iraq), Harakat an-Nujba (Iraq, pro-IRGC), Hezbollah/Syria (aka 'Local Defence Forces' or 'Local Tribes'), or such IRGC-supported 'Syrians' like Liwa al-Qods al-Filistini (essentially 'kids of Palestinian refugees that grew up in Syria') and Fawj 47 (ex-SAA troops commanded by IRGC officers and NCOs).

Secondly: even during such offensives run by the 'JFS-dominated' JAF alliance like back in August, and then in October, the mass of involved insurgents were Syrians (20+ FSyA, 5+ Islamist groups, with about 20,000 combatants, compared with 1 JFS with perhaps 12,000 combatants in all of Aleppo and Idlib Governorates).

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor..just a side comment.....never ever trust anything posted in Wikipedia ...often false and not correct ...........if I use anything from it ...it is the definitions of terms....

Secondly....I find that when say FSA posts an infographic as to who is participating in a particular battle far more informative and accurate....

You keep using the term Islamists....wrong they are Salafists simple as that....the term Islamists could when wrongly used even be used to describe "moderate/secularists".....

In some ways if you are tracking here both CB ad I often use or post something that provides a "definition" or questions a posting.....

In the world of writing....even good writers tend to not define a term or word....in the world of intel reporting the first use of a word or term is followed by a definition and then everyone knows how it is being used.....and the word Islamist is vastly overused and never clearly defined...

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat...more of those "unconfirmed unnamed aircraft attacks"......

Suspected Israeli aircrafts hit Mazzeh airport in Damacus. Unconfirmed
pic.twitter.com/T5OJABT9n0
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/7-december-overnight-reports-say-an-israeli-air-strikes-reported …

Almost daily reports of "someone" aircrafts hit Syr. Govt or their allies positions

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Spetsnaz COL killed in Aleppo....


Russia's Defense Ministry has confirmed the death of one of its army officers in Aleppo on Wednesday.

"[Colonel] Ruslan Galitsky was carrying out his mission in the Syrian Arab Republic as part of a group of Russian military advisers," the ministry said in an official statement to the Interfax news agency.

Galitsky was wounded during shelling by "militants of the so-called [Syrian] opposition" from western neighborhoods of Aleppo. Russian military physicians fought to save his life for several days, the ministry said.

According to the official statement, Galitsky will posthumously be awarded a medal for his service

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Destruction due to intense air strikes on #Atarib (left) & #Idlib (right) today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55v_jCdhJUw …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6p6OYp0i_Mg …

Footage
Aftermath of cluster bomb attack on rural #Idlib shortly ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvorxOctlmU …

Eastern #Aleppo yesterday.
#AssadPutin's "liberation" as it really looks like.

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Pro-#Assad TV presents "Free Syrian Army terrorists".
Average locals, which wanted to defend their homes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SxrsdlB0bg …

News
More groups, not belonging to Jaish al Fateh, join bombing #Fuah and #Kefraya as part of "Anger for Aleppo" campaign.

Syria tonight.
#AssadPutin burn the country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI4gyKVuxpA …

Multiple #Russian air strikes on civilians in towns across #Idlib province today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuBb44rwK-o …

Massive bomb strike!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjFsqb-mkcA …

[OUTLAW 09]

Moscow today.
Everyone has his price.
This is what #Turkey got for #Aleppo.

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
Intense unguided #JFS attacks on #Fuah and #Kefraya while #Aleppo remains ignored by them ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DZsK67TPCM …

Footage
Regime footage shows entire residential buildings collapse in brutal #AssadPutin air strikes on #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2WEtnyG8vs …

Footage
"#Russian" air strikes on #Sarmin in #Idlib provnce this evening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcwyKDpwBxE …

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...picking back up your comments on who writes about Syria and the ME....right now none o those you have mentioned nor many o their associated blogs are carrying anything on this....so give me a writer based in Qatar or anywhere in the ME and or a think tank handling strictly the ME any day over someone or think tank sitting in the US

Charles Lister Verified account 
‏@Charles_Lister
My latest comments on #Aleppo, secret talks in #Turkey & expansion of bombing to #Idlib:
For @MiddleEastInst:

http://www.mei.edu/content/article/monday-briefing-opec-deal-win-iran …

"On Sunday, Russia insisted on withdrawal of all mainstream opposition fighters, as well as identification, surrender of al-Qaeda members."

Opposition factions in #Aleppo have been advised by the U.S. to accept an offer of withdrawal on condition of safe evacuation with families.

The instruction was received through MOM channels & comes out of #Kerry-#Lavrov negotiations in #Switzerland.

Factions have not responded.

Lack of clarity & conflicting reports is the result of individual factions taking differing positions; some pro- & others anti-withdrawing.

Some opposition groups in #Aleppo have drawn up a list of demands/guarantees they deem necessary should any withdrawal eventually be agreed.

Important - multiple opposition sources in #Aleppo insist a withdrawal is “impossible” & reports suggesting its possibility are “false."

[OUTLAW 09]

Mousa al-Omar confirms opposition will withdraw from Old #Aleppo.
Major development.

Syria’s armed opposition issues a demand for a 5-day ceasefire, to allow for civilian evacuation from East to North #Aleppo (not #Idlib):

Statement stresses that armed groups won't surrender/withdraw.

“The future of the city” would be negotiated post-civilian evacuation.

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat...more of those "unconfirmed unnamed aircraft attacks"......

Suspected Israeli aircrafts hit Mazzeh airport in Damacus. Unconfirmed
pic.twitter.com/T5OJABT9n0
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/7-december-overnight-reports-say-an-israeli-air-strikes-reported …

Almost daily reports of "someone" aircrafts hit Syr. Govt or their allies positions

For 2nd time in a week, Syrian state TV confirms Israeli airstrikes in Damascus. This means an uptick in arms transfer attempts to Hezbollah

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...picking back up your comments on who writes about Syria and the ME....right now none o those you have mentioned nor many o their associated blogs are carrying anything on this....so give me a writer based in Qatar or anywhere in the ME and or a think tank handling strictly the ME any day over someone or think tank sitting in the US

Charles Lister Verified account 
‏@Charles_Lister
My latest comments on #Aleppo, secret talks in #Turkey & expansion of bombing to #Idlib:
For @MiddleEastInst:

http://www.mei.edu/content/article/monday-briefing-opec-deal-win-iran …

"On Sunday, Russia insisted on withdrawal of all mainstream opposition fighters, as well as identification, surrender of al-Qaeda members."

Opposition factions in #Aleppo have been advised by the U.S. to accept an offer of withdrawal on condition of safe evacuation with families.

The instruction was received through MOM channels & comes out of #Kerry-#Lavrov negotiations in #Switzerland.

Factions have not responded.

Lack of clarity & conflicting reports is the result of individual factions taking differing positions; some pro- & others anti-withdrawing.

Some opposition groups in #Aleppo have drawn up a list of demands/guarantees they deem necessary should any withdrawal eventually be agreed.

Important - multiple opposition sources in #Aleppo insist a withdrawal is “impossible” & reports suggesting its possibility are “false."

Azor....something to think about as this topic has largely gone totally unnoticed by most US writers and MSM when they mention the words Syria... IS....Iran and Assad in the same sentence...

If you take the time to read most of what Lister...Weiss....Orton and Hassan Hassan have written about the connections of Assad to the development and support to first QJBR/AQI and then IS and still continued support via the Kurdish YPG/PKK as well as the Iranian support to IS.....we might have had a far different Syrain discussion coming out of the Obama WH......

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton · Dec 3
IS about to lose its two capitals, but it'll go back into the deserts, resting on networks Assad helped them build.
http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2016/12/02/analysis-defeating-the-islamic-state-for-good/ …

Orton has done a number of articles with evidence of the deep ties between IS
Assad and Iran....largely ignored by US MSM.....

Charles Lister Verified account 
‏@Charles_Lister
#pt: The evidence on #Assad regime collision with jihadists (2000-present) is extensive.
I wrote a whole chapter on it (Ch.3), for my book.

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister · Nov 22

My in-depth paper on the FSA is out!

— "The Free Syrian Army: A decentralized insurgent brand” —

http://brook.gs/2fadx48 #Syria #Aleppo

NOW find me US MSM and or writers who have covered the same areas....there are none....

[OUTLAW 09]

Children in #Madaya this morning after days of #Assad artillery, mortar and rocket attacks on their homes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbKmTe7Y_tI …