Russo-Ukraine War 2016 (October onwards)

[OUTLAW 09]

bellingcat @bellingcat
We just published a must-read translation of @askai707's investigation on Russian marines who fought in Luhansk.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2016/11/15/russias-61st-separate-naval-infantry-brigade-donbass/#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

First the ICC rules Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine opening up Russia ...separatists and Russian officials to war crimes.....

NOW this....cements the ICC......

UN committee votes to condemn Russian occupation of Crimea - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/un-committee-votes-to-condemn-russian-occupation-of-crimea/2016/11/15/1624c774-ab91-11e6-8f19-21a1c65d2043_story.html#

"Russia occupied Crimea". Took 2,5 years to state it. Human rights violations addressed; monitors should have access

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Army biohazard & ChemW unit ID'd in #Donetsk chemical factory.
New OSINT revelation by @InformNapalm
https://twitter.com/VidalSorokin/status/798811228541894660#

ATO spox: 6 railway cars with ammo for militants` needs were transported from Russia to occupied Suhodilsk, Luhansk region

[OUTLAW 09]

MH17: Listen to Russian Special Forces commander in #Ukraine, desperate for a BUK. Animation/phone tap > JIT report
https://www.om.nl/actueel/nieuwsberichten/@96068/jit-flight-mh17-shot/#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy incoming fire east of #Mariupol reported this evening

[OUTLAW 09]

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
✔
@mfa_russia
#Zakharova: The Lithuanian Radio and Television Commission has banned Russia’s RTR Planeta broadcasting for three months

Russia violates maritime law by exploring annexed part of Azov Sea shelf – border guards
http://www.unian.info/politics/1629516-russia-violates-maritime-law-by-exploring-annexed-part-of-azov-sea-shelf-border-guards.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Zvezda TV: 20th army of Russian Western military district is on battle alert
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/17-november-zvezda-tv-20th-army-of-eastern-military-district#

Units of 20th army are in Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Bryansk regions. Message said they will hold operation on one of strategical directions

[OUTLAW 09]

OSCE has seen 30,000 people in uniform cross into UA from RF at the 2 checkpoints (out of 11) where it can work.
https://osce.usmission.gov/response-chief-observer-observer-mission-russian-border-checkpoints-gukovo-donetsk-statement-pc/#.WC6r_mPAueg.twitter#

Russia again using MRLS Grad and Self-propelled guns in the #East_Ukraine.

Contacts on the ground tell us it's business as usual in eastern Ukraine. Fighting goes on every day. But OSCE data says escalation.

9:24AM #Mariupol hearing 82-mm and 120-mm mortars fire towards east.

Former #Russia'n #FSB officer who had fought for #Ukraine is now missing
http://uatoday.tv/news/ex-fsb-servant-living-in-ukraine-reported-missing-805639.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO: 40 attacks on Ukr positions y/day, #Shyrokyne was under fire from 122-mm&152-mm artillery, tank. Hnutove under artillery & mortars fire

[OUTLAW 09]

SBU found 3 Russian ATGM Fagot positions near Popasna
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/18-november-sbu-found-3-russian-atgm-fagot-positions-near#
… pic.twitter.com/hkMUkYeS2w via @ServiceSsu

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia tried to kidnap and then assassinate a former FSB officer who fought with the UAF......we are now officially in the new KGB Cold War 2.0....was blocked by the SBU...third attempt on his life.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian TV in Luhansk showing anti-personnel landmines that are being used by Russians
pic.twitter.com/t2spUu1Gt9
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-november-russian-tv-in-luhansk-showing-antipersonnel-landmines#

Due to AP Mine treaty agreement Ukraine has signed UAF uses no AP mines whatsoever....

DNR" TROOPS BUILD UP -In #Putin created "DNR" #Donetsk #Ukraine as #Russia Mercs/ Troops evicting citizens to occupy their homes.

[OUTLAW 09]

General stating Russian aggression in Ukraine "much more severe" than U.S. treats it may...
http://www.unian.info/world/1632767-general-stating-russian-aggression-in-ukraine-much-more-severe-than-us-treats-it-may-become-defense-secretary.html#

MORE INFO on Russian non linear warfare is coming soon....
SurkovLeaks was just the beginning. Ukraine and Russia analysts should brace themselves for unprecedented exposure to Kremlin hybrid war

Putin issued secret orders to send RU troops to UA confirmed by RU Def Min
https://informnapalm.org/en/putin-secret-orders/#

[OUTLAW 09]

46 russian attacks on UAF positions yesterday, Krasnohorivka came under 152-mm artillery & various mortars fire.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's war against Ukraine was never that 'hot'.
Record high: 3,444 explosions (OSCE data)
(mortars, tanks, artillery, rockets)

JUST THIS WEEK...largely forgotten by Western MSM and Western leaders.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Text message delivered to residents of Maryinka "DNR is ready for offensive"
pic.twitter.com/fuy12SLJp9
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-november-text-message-delivered-to-residents-of-maryinka#

[OUTLAW 09]

75 Russian military units that fight in Donbas [EN, UA, DE, RU subs]
https://youtu.be/xfaxifCx94o

Russian troops and her mercenaries attacked UAF positons 46 times yesterday along the entire Minsk 2 frontline...


TODAY....
" #Ukraine 's ATO HQ reports ongoing attacks in all sectors in #Donbas"

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukr positions on #Avdiivka outskirts under heavy fire now. Explosions, shooting.

NOW this is how the Trump..eastern Ukraine and Syria are in fact intertwined....
While Trump changes Obama, Russia may try offensive to occupy #Ukraine's city of #Mariupol & cargo port on Azov Sea.
http://uatoday.tv/crime/russian-prox...d-809518.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Donetsk #вата with greatest pride announce they use right now in mil.drills live rounds on #Ukraine positions.
https://twitter.com/hyeva_maryinka/status/800612167523438592#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

I will be backing out of posting to the Syrian as well as the Ukrainian threads because in both the killing just keeps on going on as the core problem with the Russian non linear warfare is...it has never been fully countered by either NATO and the US and under Trump it will continue to be potentially a supportive proRussian positon taken by Trump thus making the current global problems even worse.....

SWJ had a recent article on the success or failure of the Russian non linear warfare with the two key cornerstones of 1) cyber warfare and 2) informational warfare....

HATE to admit it and many might not like this... we the US and the entire West have lost and lost badly.....

Russian cyber warfare is still going strong and not a single pushback by the US has occurred and NOW we have a "cyber arms race" and we are even losing that....and that informational warfare using fake news sites....social media trolling companies aided by the Russian government and a Russian state sponsored global disinformation/propaganda media network...being funded for 1B USDs per year and going strong with no pushback by any Western country....WELL they have actually won there with the massive upsurge in "populist" parties culminating in the election of a US "populist" that is proRussian leaning...and who firmly believes as do Russian oligarchs in the concept called "kleptocracy".....and potentially a number of NATO countries also swinging towards "populist leaders/parties" and proRussian leaning leaders being recently elected in Estonia, Bulgaria and Moldavia...

Nothing has changed in eastern Ukraine and in Syria where we the US are now fully complicit in supporting a genocidal dictator and Trump's bromance partner Putin and Trump states a number of times he would support both against IS driving 100,000 well trained and experienced FSA fighters straight in to the arms of JFS ....

We now hear about US Muslim Registries and banning of immigrants from "supposedly terrorist nations" and those that voted for Trump..."see" radical Muslims on every street corner and behind every bush/tree..AND Sharia law literally taking over the entire US State/Federal Court system..and the racist and anti Muslim rhetoric just keeps climbing in the US driving sadly towards an eventual "clash of civilizations" that both IS and AQ have predicted and wanted....

We are sadly now in the "Post Truth Era" and no amount of trying to keep people informed about areas of the world that have sadly become part of this "Post Truth Era" that MSM is failing to fully and completely inform the reading public about is another reason to slowly back away....

One can lead a horse to the pool of "truth" but you cannot make that horse understand that it is the "truth" in this "Post Truth Era"....

The killing still goes on in eastern Ukraine and Syria and just posting that which everyone knows never will change appears to me to be just a exercise in futility and a waste of time...

Interestingly the sheer number of Reads (over 570,000 since 2015 on Syria AND the over more than 400,000 on Ukraine in the same timeframe) over the last year or two indicate to me that some do want to be kept informed even if of another political opinion, but in the end just being informed does not change FP and with this new coming Trump FP....I am thoroughly happy to be getting my German Passport on 4 Jan which is another reason to back away...as I personally feel then that a former US citizen now future German does not have the right to critique the US...

I had thought after Rwanda and Srebrenica genocide had been beaten back into the ground .....it has not...I thought after the Wall fell the issue of changing international borders using force had stopped...it has not and after roughly 15 years of war against AQ and IS we still have not learned a single lesson on how to deal with them other than more killing....and until we learn those lessons that are literally in our faces.... that we must honestly address AQ and IS directly....the killing will continue for the next several decades.

Trump or no Trump....

So it is time to move on....the photo that haunts me from my time in VN was the little nude girl running from napalm and two ... 8 and 10 year old Vietnamese boys killed in my ambush who even though while 8 and 10 both carried VC ID cards and two old rusty US ,45 pistols AND the picture of the little Syrian girl injured from an air strike with an oxygen mask who died later not even achieving the age of 1...sad that the world has never seemed to learn...

If the US FP cannot stand up...lead and provide answers any more...that is a simple declaration of bankruptcy...a bankruptcy of morale values...civil and humans rights....end of story...

Time to move on.....if someone would have told me that I would be ending my life time in a country that will be pushing back on European populism ie fascism with a smile in the coming years I would have called them crazy....

Amazing to watch US citizens using Nazi salutes during Trump rallies and yesterday in DC......

[OUTLAW 09]

Die geschundenen Kinder #Aleppo's auf Seite 1 der @BILD.
Nicht alle vergessen euch!

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov: There's no #Russian Army in #Ukraine
#OSINT: #Luhansk Nov 22 2016 #Russian Army conscripts doing drills.
https://twitter.com/kalinfeld/status/801323100927365120#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Coming back in a body bag: a contract soldier from Russian 15th Brigade identified (photos, videos, 18+):
https://informnapalm.org/en/coming-back-body-bag-contract-soldier-russian-15th-brigade-identified-photos-videos-18/#


From Russian FM...no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine....

[OUTLAW 09]

Maxim Tucker
✔
@MaxRTucker
Exclusive: #Russia preparing two new battle groups for #Ukraine, intelligence report says: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/5-000-russian-troops-on-our-land-says-kiev-ncjgwv0sr#

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy day time shelling's and ground attacks have broken out.....

Donetsk, #Khrustalnyi, #Sorokyne, #Rovenki: Vodaphone internet/communication down. May be jammed

[OUTLAW 09]

RU Marine Spetsnaz uses look-alikes of Swedish CB90 boats (Раптор) and Finnish M05 uniforms (Егерь). What a coincidence #Gotland #land #СпН

NOTE:..small drones have been repeatedly spotted by Finnish and Swedish military during their military exercises in the last two months....

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov: There's no #Russian Army in #Ukraine
#Russian Army 15th OMSBr in #Novosvetlovka, #Luhansk, Aug-Sept 2014.
https://twitter.com/askai707/status/802144300003917824#

[OUTLAW 09]

Maxim Tucker
✔
@MaxRTucker
Exclusive: #Russia preparing two new battle groups for #Ukraine, intelligence report says: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/5-000-russian-troops-on-our-land-says-kiev-ncjgwv0sr#

Russian announced the rehabbing of 3000 T80 tanks with new armor and new devices.....

That's almost 100 more tank battalions for the Russian army....wonder why

[OUTLAW 09]

Per #HUMINT @InformNapalm reports #Russian terrorists plan big subversive operation tomorrow Nov 26 in #Debaltsev.
https://twitter.com/newsburko/status/802202294926200832#

[OUTLAW 09]

Report: Heavy fighting (Artillery/armor) w/ enemy KIA & WIA as attack by Russian forces on Dzerzhinsk is repelled
http://newnews.in.ua/molniya-vsu-nachali-nastuplenie-pod-mariupolem-podbit-btr-unichtozheny-soldaty-protivnika-karta/#

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT

Number of troops-carrying rail cars booked by Russian army to Belarus

2015: 125
2016: 50
2017: 4126 (!)

http://www.defence24.pl/498941,wielki-przerzut-rosyjskiego-sprzetu-do-bialorusi-w-2017-roku-manewry-agresja-czy-nowa-baza-wojskowa#

[OUTLAW 09]

Report: Russian fighters suffered heavy losses (18 KIA), when caught in a crossfire with Ukr forces near Kryms'ke
https://inforesist.org/boeviki-ponesli-krupnyie-poteri-vstupiv-v-boy-s-boytsami-vsu-na-luganshhine/?f#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian proxies expel Czech aid group from Donetsk and capture its storage
http://24today.net/open/706546

Russian mercenaries must be getting short of food supplies to I they made this move...
#

[OUTLAW 09]

Toretsk remains cut off water supply as militants & Russ JCCC members don't guarantee workers safety. - Zhebrivsky.
http://novosti.dn.ua/news/263804-toreck-do-sykh-por-bez-vody-yz-za-boevykov-y-rossyyskoy-storony--sckk-zhebryvskyy#

Interesting position taken by the Russian JCCC which is suppose to be neutral OR at least they claim they are neutral and for protecting the locals.....

THIS is a town the mercenaries and Russian artillery have been attempting to take over...NOTICE the use of denying/destroying critical infrastructure for the local civilians ...JUST as in Syria.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia Opens Criminal Case Against Ukrainian Military Commanders
http://www.rferl.org/a/28143416.html

Interesting is that Russia somehow thinks it has judicial control over Ukraine...will then Ukraine open criminal investigations of Lavrov and Putin the General of the Russian General Staff

BUT WAIT...Russia quit the ICC after the ICC stated that yes Russia had committed war crimes in Crimea and by extension eastern Ukraine...

So in theory Ukraine could bring war crimes charges against Putin in the ICC as Ukraine is a member of ICC by treaty.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hacktivists uncovered Russian marine taking part in Donbas war:
https://informnapalm.org/en/hacktivists-uncovered-russian-marine-taking-part-donbas-war/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti
'Hybrid War or Gibridnaya Voina? Getting #Russia’s non-linear military challenge right'
New report of mine out today
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2016/11/28/new-report-hybrid-war-or-gibridnaya-voina-getting-russias-non-linear-military-challenge-right/#

Well worth reading.....…


I’m today releasing a report of mine,#Hybrid War or Gibridnaya Voina?#Getting Russia’s non-linear military challenge right that, as the title suggests, explores the whole issue of Russia’s non-linear challenge to the West and make recommendations about possible responses. It is not the last word, of course, and is as much as anything else written to try and further the debate. A key point I do make is that I feel what we tend to call Russian ‘hybrid warfare’ (it’s not the best term, but we seem to be stuck with it at the moment) is not only that not special in Russian eyes, but in many ways ought perhaps to be considered as two similar but distinct ways of wielding similar instruments: as a preparatory stage before proper kinetic warfare operations (‘hybrid war’) and as a purely non-kinetic variety of aggravated and confrontational diplomacy (‘political war’). Ukraine faced the former, the West the latter. Either way, these are wars…



The point of trying to understand this threat is to respond to it, and the final part presents a series of observations and re-commendations for Western policy. The aim must be deterrence if possible, but such is the nature of this diffuse and undeclared form of war that this will often be by denial—developing ‘hybrid defenses’—and the right mix of forces ready for a conflict that could as easily be fought in cyberspace or the courts as on the battlefield.

Nor is this simply a threat that will subside as and when Putin’s regime implodes or subsides, however inevitable this undoubtedly is. There are other revisionist powers in the world and likely to emerge. ‘Hybrid war’ is a convenient and catchy term, even if of questionable scholarly rigor, but if anything it simply reflects the way conflict is evolving, and the sooner the West adapts to the Russian challenge, the better it will also be positioned to face the one coming next after that.

[OUTLAW 09]

Incredible. 21 of 35: Russian artillerymen of the 7th Military Base involved in shelling of #Ukraine identified from Russian 2014 invasion
https://informnapalm.org/en/russian-artillerymen-7th-military-base/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian hackers release video, claiming they hacked a military commander of illegally occupied Donbass
https://youtu.be/6yqG10tcI9k

Senator Igor Morozov on new Russian thinking: "West should make Poroshenko fulfill all of Minsk. If US joins, process can go even faster."

Two days ago #Crimea artists played a concert in #Kyiv.
When they tried to return home, #Russia's FSB arrested them
http://15minut.org/news/166309-fsb-rf-zaderzhivaet-krymskotatarskih-artistov-vozvraschayuschihsya-iz-kieva-posle-koncerta-vatan-sesi-obnovlyaetsya#

Krymske, 50 km NW from Luhansk - Russian-led forces used all types of arms including the prohibited, in the intensive battle Nov 28, 4pm-6pm

[OUTLAW 09]

The hottest fighting spot of the #Mariupol sector is #Shyrokyne village...everyday major ground fighting is ongoing....with heavy shelling's

[OUTLAW 09]

I spoke to a participant of the #Minsk talks recently & learnt about the concept of current German "#HybridDiplomacy".
Shocking.

[OUTLAW 09]

"No accord reached on withdrawal of Russian troops and mercenaries from the Donbas"

Russia didn't agree to any of key priorities set out in the talks. We had different opinions on how a roadmap to peace would work

Klimkin shows to Normandy Four in Minsk picture of Russian UAV, its flight route over Ukraine
http://www.unian.info/politics/1651506-klimkin-shows-to-normandy-four-in-minsk-picture-of-russian-uav-its-flight-route-over-ukraine.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia warns #Kyiv that there will be a military response if #Ukraine carries out scheduled missile tests
https://goo.gl/cpRIV1

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia threatens Ukraine with missile strike if Ukraine pursues with drills
http://www.unian.info/war/1652361-russia-threatens-ukraine-with-missile-strike-in-wake-of-scheduled-ukrainian-drills-near-occupied-crimea-media.html#

Interestingly Russia can conduct military drills right up next to the Ukrainian border but whoa be it that Ukraine conducts military exercises next to their borders....THEN Russia believes it has the right to tell a nation state what it can and or cannot do....

Ukraine announced tests with air-to-air missiles W. of Crimea, Thurs. & Friday. Moscow angry, says it contacted ICAO
http://tass.com/defense/915234

ICAO is a UN organisation. The UN hasn't recognized Russia's annexation of Crimea. Formally the airspace over/near Crimea still is Ukrainian

[OUTLAW 09]

Defense Ministry says 55,000 Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/30-november-defense-ministry-says-55000-russian-troops-are#

BUT UAF cannot fire air to air rockets??????

[OUTLAW 09]

Alleged no-fly zone declared by Ukraine for Dec 1.-2. missile test
pic.twitter.com/GOFgBcmW7J
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/29-november-alleged-nofly-zone-declared-by-ukraine-for-dec#

Clearly....cleanly and correctly announced missile firing exercise and yet Russia goes ballistic...wonder why?????

TASS' MoD source claims #Ukraine missile test is a PR trick but they take as clear & present threat, went into full combat readiness.

DOES Russia really want to provoke an all out war.....you have to think someone in Moscow is in control of their propaganda and or they seriously think they can go to war....by attacking launch sites clearly registered and announced is a clear violation of all OSCE rules...and treaties....

Russian MoD send protest to #Ukraine MoD on Nov 26th 2016 where they said 1) will intercept any missiles 2) will destroy all launch sites.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia pushed S-300VM SAM to Crimea
pic.twitter.com/OSRCqu4UKA
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/29-november-russia-pushed-s300vm-sam-to-crimea#
…

[Azor]

Alleged no-fly zone declared by Ukraine for Dec 1.-2. missile test
pic.twitter.com/GOFgBcmW7J
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/29-november-alleged-nofly-zone-declared-by-ukraine-for-dec#

Clearly....cleanly and correctly announced missile firing exercise and yet Russia goes ballistic...wonder why?????

TASS' MoD source claims #Ukraine missile test is a PR trick but they take as clear & present threat, went into full combat readiness.

DOES Russia really want to provoke an all out war.....you have to think someone in Moscow is in control of their propaganda and or they seriously think they can go to war....by attacking launch sites clearly registered and announced is a clear violation of all OSCE rules...and treaties....

Russian MoD send protest to #Ukraine MoD on Nov 26th 2016 where they said 1) will intercept any missiles 2) will destroy all launch sites.

According to the BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38166597):


But on Thursday, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) said the boundaries of the danger zones had been moved to the west, "outside the borders of the Russian Federation", according to Interfax news agency.
A Ukrainian military official said the exercises were being carried out at least 30km (19 miles) from Crimean air space and in accordance with international law.
"Therefore it would be wrong to reproach Ukraine," Volodymyr Kryzhanovsky told the Ukrainian 112 TV Channel.

Do you know what types of SAMs Ukraine is testing?

According to Wikipedia, Ukraine has 8 S-300VI and ~90 S-300PS which are being gradually upgraded, so is it a test of the upgrades or to shake the dust off some old systems?

[OUTLAW 09]

According to the BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38166597):



Do you know what types of SAMs Ukraine is testing?

According to Wikipedia, Ukraine has 8 S-300VI and ~90 S-300PS which are being gradually upgraded, so is it a test of the upgrades or to shake the dust off some old systems?

Searching...will get you an answer....

UPDATE: 16 missiles launched in Ukraine's exercises today. Exercises finished for today, will resume tomorrow.

Ukrainian Mindef published images of today's missile launches
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/1-december-ukrainian-mindef-published-images-of-todays-missile#… via @krymrealii

Armed Forces of #Ukraine reveal details about the upcoming #missile exercise
http://112.international/ukraine-top-news/it-is-planned-to-launch-guided-anti-aircraft-medium-range-missiles-armed-forces-of-ukraine-11583.html#…

Ukraine holds air def drills near #Russia-held #Crimea. Previous drills held INSIDE Crimea:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnJPXi9gIp8#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoWbtu7LtNk#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia now using drones from Taganrog airbase. Presumably to monitor Ukrainian positions in #Mariupol sector.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia deployed SAM battery in Yevpatoriya, #Crimea
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/1-december-sam-deployed-in-yevpatoriya#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia @mfa_russia openly allowing Russian soldiers to flood in/out of Ukraine. Nov 15th #OSCE counted 102
http://www.osce.org/om/281936

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT....

GRU subversion unit got caught in #Donetsk region, #Ukraine. Losses among GRU: 1 BMP seized, 1 oper KIA, 1 detained
https://twitter.com/newsburko/status/804383485767143425#

[OUTLAW 09]

Major Europol operation together with Ukrainian police....against one of the largest global hacking networks....

Breaking: #Ukraine police closed the scam / phishing cyber network #Avalanche. Its leader arrested in Poltava.
https://youtu.be/Rl3O-Fr6J3E

[OUTLAW 09]

As for reported by Liga
http://news.liga.net/news/incident/13940074-vzryv_v_okkupirovannom_donetske_unichtozhen_sklad_ boepripasov_dnr.htm#


"killing ~100 militants" explosion of an ammo deport at #DKZKhI chem.plant Dec03 ~20:00:


Video source.
East of Avdeevka in the Prompka complex, said to be from November 2016.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgb4kuXEfQM#

[OUTLAW 09]

I wonder what these Russians are doing in the Baltic states if they're so horribly treated...

[OUTLAW 09]

The last time I checked Crimea was militarily annexed by Russia and was Ukrainian to begin with.......

JUST another example of US Congressmen who cannot seem to get history/geography correct these days....BUT it is definitely better than Congressman Rohrbacher who called the Ukrainian government Nazi"s....two years ago because he had received a large supporter donation from Russia.....

Pro-Putin congressman says he is on Secretary of State list
http://politi.co/2fPdle2

Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter offers Ukraine exchange:Crimea for peace in Donbas + weapons from US.
WTH?
http://sprotyv.info/ru/news/kiev/torg-nachalsya-amerikanskiy-kongressmen-predlagaet-ukraine-mir-na-donbasse-za-otkaz-ot?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter …

[OUTLAW 09]

Sergey Markov, preaches revival of Byzantine civilisation, pushes fake threats of imminent nuclear attack that must pre-emptively countered.

Sergey Markov, who claimed #Ukraine is on building nuclear bombs, is pushing "Moscow is the Third Rome" narrative. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/third-rome-rising-the-ideologues-calling-new-russian-empire-16748 …

Sergey Markov's take on 'imminent nuclear attack' from '#Nazi' #Ukraine is absolutely new & unheard of #InfoOps, change of #Kremlin tactics.

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference Russian info warfare in Baltic's.....

Excellent investigation into fake news site in Latvia
http://www.lsm.lv/en/article/defense/society/blogger-reveals-mystery-websites-ties-to-russia.a213155/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Tanks of occupying Russian forces spotted 3 km away from the contact line in #Donbas
https://informnapalm.org/en/tank-occupying-russian-forces-spotted-3-km-away-contact-line-donbas/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin’s wars come home to Russia — despite Moscow’s efforts to hide the bodies
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/12/07/putins-wars-come-home-to-russia-despite-moscows-efforts-to-hide-the-bodies-euromaidan-press/ …

[Azor]

By Mark Galeotti
War on the Rocks
http://warontherocks.com/2016/12/russias-hybrid-war-as-a-byproduct-of-a-hybrid-state/

Whether or not “hybrid war” is the right term — a battle probably lost for the moment —Russia is indeed waging an essentially political struggle against the West through political subversion, economic penetration, espionage, and disinformation. To a degree, this reflects the parsimonious opportunism of a weak but ruthless Russia trying to play a great power game without a great power’s resources. It also owes much to Moscow’s inheritance from Bolshevik and even tsarist practices. But a third key factor behind it is the very nature of the modern Russian state, as I discuss in my new report, Hybrid War or Gibridnaya Voina: Getting Russia’s Non-Linear Military Challenge Right.

One distinctive aspect of recent Russian campaigns, from political operations against the West to military operations in Ukraine, has been a blurring of the borders between state, paramilitary, mercenary, and dupe. The Putin regime evidently believes that it is at war with the West — a geopolitical, even civilizational struggle — and is thus mobilizing every weaponizable asset at its disposal. This extends to mining society as a whole for semi-autonomous assets, from eager internet trolls and “patriotic hackers” to transnational banks and businesses to Cossack volunteers and mercenary gangsters.

When William Nemeth posited the notion of hybrid warfare in the context of the Chechen war against the Russians, it was rooted in his belief that Chechen society was itself a hybrid, still somewhere between the modern and the pre-modern. Traditional forms of social organization, notable the family and the teip (clan), could be used to mobilize for war in ways that need not distinguish between “regular” and “irregular” forms of war, spanning conventional war, insurgency, and terrorism. Hence, a hybrid society fought a hybrid war.

The “hybridity” of Russian operations likewise reflects a conceptually analogous if operationally very different hybridity of the Russian state. Through the 1990s and into Putinism, Russia either failed to institutionalize or actively deinstitutionalized — however you choose to define it.

Today, Russia is a patrimonial, hyper-presidential regime, one characterized by the permeability of boundaries between public and private, domestic and external. As oligarch-turned-dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky put it:


[W]hat distinguishes the current Russian government from the erstwhile Soviet leaders familiar to the West is its rejection of ideological constraints and the complete elimination of institutions.

Lacking meaningful rule of law or checks and balances, without drawing too heavy-handed a comparison with fascism, Putin’s Russia seems to embody, in its own chaotic and informal way, Mussolini’s dictum “tutto nello Stato, niente al di fuori dello Stato, nulla contro lo Stato” — “everything inside the State, nothing outside the State, nothing against the State.” Parenthetically, Mussolini sent what could be called “little blackshirt men” to Spain in the 1930s to fight on Franco’s side during the civil war. All notionally opted to do so of their own volition (as the Voluntary Troops Corps) and initially without insignia.

In Russia, state institutions are often regarded as personal fiefdoms and piggy banks, officials and even officers freely engage in commercial activity, and the Russian Orthodox Church is practically an arm of the Kremlin. Given all that, the infusion of non-military instruments into military affairs was almost inevitable. Beyond that, though, Putin’s Russia has been characterized — in the past, at least — by multiple, overlapping agencies, a “bureaucratic pluralism” intended as much to permit the Kremlin to divide and rule as for any practical advantages. This is clearly visible within the intelligence and security realm, from the intrusion of the Federal Security Service (FSB) — originally intended as a purely domestic agency — into foreign operations, as well as in the competition over responsibility for information operations.

When “information troops” were formed following the Georgian war, for instance, the FSB at first publicly denounced plans by the military to develop its own capability. Under a 2013 presidential decree, the FSB was tasked with securing national information resources. Since then, this apparent monopoly seems to have eroded, as there is much anecdotal evidence suggesting Russian military intelligence units active in information warfare in Ukraine.

Moscow must also be considered the master of “hybrid business,” of developing illegal and legal commercial enterprises that ideally make money, but at the same time can be used for the state’s purposes, whether technically private concerns or not. Russian commercial institutions not only provide covers for intelligence agents and spread disinformation, but acting notionally on their own initiative, they are also used to provide financial support to political and social movements Moscow deems convenient. For instance, Marine Le Pen’s anti-European Union Front Nationale in France received a €9 million loan from a bank run by a close Putin ally. Similarly, the election of the Czech Republic’s Russophile President Miloš Zeman was partially bankrolled by the local head of the Russian oil company Lukoil — allegedly as a personal donation. Fighting in Syria is spearheaded by “mercenaries” who are simply deniable Russian troops, while even organized crime groups are pressed into service from time to time when the needs of the “hybrid war” demand.

So, it is not simply that Moscow chooses to ignore those boundaries we are used to in the West between state and private, military and civilian, legal and illegal. It is that those boundaries are much less meaningful in Russian terms, and they are additionally straddled by a range of duplicative and even competitive agencies. This can get in the way of coherent policy and create problems of redundancy and even contradictory goals, as evidenced by the 2016 hack of U.S. Democratic National Committee servers, in which FSB and GRU military intelligence operations appear to have been working at cross purposes. However, it also creates a challenge that is complex, multi-faceted, and inevitably difficult for Western agencies to comprehend, let alone counter.

Of course, there is blurring even within these blurred categories and a degree to which these hybrid actors also represent a threat to Russia. “Patriotic hackers” mobilized or hired by the state today may steal from Russian banks tomorrow, treating their role in Putin’s undercover war as their “get out of jail free” card. Businesses may be helping the Kremlin launder, move, and disburse money in Europe, while at the same time enthusiastically embezzling from the federal budget. In many ways, this is the quintessence of the Putin “total war” approach to governance: the absence of legal, ethical and practical limitations on the state’s capacity openly or covertly to co-opt other institutions to its own ends.

Moscow should be careful of the lessons it is teaching the West (or China and other potential future rivals). An over-geared, under-invested, over-securitized, and under-legitimate Russia may well be extremely vulnerable to at least some of the very tactics it uses so profligately abroad. Should they choose to, the United States and its allies possess formidable opportunities to fight their own “political war” inside Russia, including through cyberattacks, deeper and broader sanctions, propaganda campaigns, and encouragement of elite conspiracies. Alarmist rhetoric aside, in the long term, this so-called “new way of war” may well prove to be more of a threat to Russia than to the West.

[Azor]

So, it is not simply that Moscow chooses to ignore those boundaries we are used to in the West between state and private, military and civilian, legal and illegal. It is that those boundaries are much less meaningful in Russian terms, and they are additionally straddled by a range of duplicative and even competitive agencies. This can get in the way of coherent policy and create problems of redundancy and even contradictory goals, as evidenced by the 2016 hack of U.S. Democratic National Committee servers, in which FSB and GRU military intelligence operations appear to have been working at cross purposes. However, it also creates a challenge that is complex, multi-faceted, and inevitably difficult for Western agencies to comprehend, let alone counter.

Of course, there is blurring even within these blurred categories and a degree to which these hybrid actors also represent a threat to Russia. “Patriotic hackers” mobilized or hired by the state today may steal from Russian banks tomorrow, treating their role in Putin’s undercover war as their “get out of jail free” card. Businesses may be helping the Kremlin launder, move, and disburse money in Europe, while at the same time enthusiastically embezzling from the federal budget. In many ways, this is the quintessence of the Putin “total war” approach to governance: the absence of legal, ethical and practical limitations on the state’s capacity openly or covertly to co-opt other institutions to its own ends.

This structure reminds me of the competing ministries and agencies under Hitler, especially where the SS was concerned. However, Hitler used factionalism to his advantage in the way that Putin does. Stalin found factionalism useful from time to time, but cleaned house regularly. But both Hitler and Stalin were fans of parallel structures...

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian troops from 137th Guards Parachute Regiment pictured in village of Zrubnoye, Donetsk Oblast, UA, Sept. 2014 (47.999629, 38.869364)

Russian shelling's and ground attacks have been averaging between a low of 26 daily to a high of 61.......

A majority of the recent attacks are still focusing on the Mariupol area ...

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy shelling in northern #Donetsk right now. #Makeevka #Yasynuvata

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov demands direct talks between Kyiv and Donbas
http://www.unian.info/politics/1668091-lavrov-demands-direct-talks-between-kyiv-and-donbas.html …

Russian FM knows Ukraine will never directly talk to LNR and DNR.....

16:16 #Makiivka #Gvardeyka @Palchakkk Battle in full swing in #Promka-#YaBP direction

[OUTLAW 09]

The last time I checked Crimea was militarily annexed by Russia and was Ukrainian to begin with.......

JUST another example of US Congressmen who cannot seem to get history/geography correct these days....BUT it is definitely better than Congressman Rohrbacher who called the Ukrainian government Nazi"s....two years ago because he had received a large supporter donation from Russia.....

Pro-Putin congressman says he is on Secretary of State list
http://politi.co/2fPdle2

Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter offers Ukraine exchange:Crimea for peace in Donbas + weapons from US.
WTH?
http://sprotyv.info/ru/news/kiev/torg-nachalsya-amerikanskiy-kongressmen-predlagaet-ukraine-mir-na-donbasse-za-otkaz-ot?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter …

Video of Duncan Hunter @Rep_Hunter, suggesting #Ukraine should consider ceding #Crimea to #Russia.
Unacceptable.
https://www.facebook.com/chastime/videos/1364795206888526/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

On the new Daily Vertical - Russia says it won't invade Sweden. And why invade, when you can hack?
http://www.rferl.org/a/daily-vertical-sweden-invasion-hack/28165663.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Excerpt from a stunning DNR commander intw: "We've been killing Ukrainians, they didn't deserve that." @tvrain https://tvrain.ru/blog/donbass_glazami_sergeja_erzhenkova_blog/aleksandr_hodakovskij_vosprinimat_nas_romantikami_ nelzja_my_ubivaem_ljudej-481/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Due to severe economic recession #Russians knowingly seek ways to conscript for war in #Ukraine for fast income.

[OUTLAW 09]

Der neue #MT-LB WM/K der 34. SMSBr russischer Streitkrfte im #Donbass:
https://informnapalm.org/de/der-neue-mt-lb-wm-k-der-34-smsbr-russischer-streitkraefte-im-donbass/

Russia's militants destroy Ukrainian towns.
http://uatoday.tv/crime/pro-russia-militants-keep-destroying-ukrainian-towns-844143.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Dec10 all heads of "DNR" were in Moscow, is Surkov planning something?
https://vk.com/wall10807485_4482#

High level of Russian attacks over the last week in the middle of winter focusing on the area are Mariupol is not a good sign......

Kyiv records 70 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas in 24 hours
http://dlvr.it/MsRBpx

Any attack number over 50 per day is full scale war....simple as that.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine Defense Ministry website down: cyberattack reported
http://www.unian.info/society/1677001-ukraine-defense-ministry-website-down-cyberattack-reported.html#

Farewell ceremony for three dead mortarmen of 92nd Mechanized Brigade held in Kharkiv region. PHOTOS
http://dlvr.it/Mt1V3Z
#

[OUTLAW 09]

TeleBots malware, with possible ties to the Ukraine power outage of 2015, uses Telegram and has Mr.Robot references:

http://www.welivesecurity.com/2016/12/13/rise-telebots-analyzing-disruptive-killdisk-attacks/#



In the second half of 2016,#ESET researchers identified a unique malicious toolset that was used in targeted cyberattacks against high-value targets in the Ukrainian financial sector. We believe that the main goal of attackers using these tools is cybersabotage. This blog post outlines the details about the campaign that we discovered.

We will refer to the gang behind the malware as TeleBots. However it’s important to say that these attackers, and the toolset used, share a number of similarities with the BlackEnergy group, which conducted attacks against the energy industry in Ukraine in December 2015 and January 2016. In fact, we think that the BlackEnergy group has evolved into the TeleBots group.

[OUTLAW 09]

TeleBots malware, with possible ties to the Ukraine power outage of 2015, uses Telegram and has Mr.Robot references:

http://www.welivesecurity.com/2016/12/13/rise-telebots-analyzing-disruptive-killdisk-attacks/#

Turchynov: Russia's cyber attacks aimed at destabilizing Ukraine's finance & banking
http://www.unian.info/economics/1678821-turchynov-russias-cyber-attacks-aimed-at-destabilizing-ukraines-finance-banking.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia launched 52 attacks yesterday against UAF...five UAF wounded.....

In shelling of #Ukraine positions participate both #DNR/#LNR #вата and #Russian regular army. Goal - destabilization

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian mercenaries claims UAF starts offensive........

I repeat, there is no credible source that there really is an Ukrainian offensive ongoing but fighting since this morning is confirmed!

Updated map from alleged Ukrainian offensive

Latest report from #Debaltseve (10 minutes ago) says artillery is still firing. Active for hours now.

[OUTLAW 09]

Last night's #electricity #blackout in #Kiev, #Ukraine was caused by a #cyber attack:

http://www.interfax.ru/world/541917

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia launched 52 attacks yesterday against UAF...five UAF wounded.....

In shelling of #Ukraine positions participate both #DNR/#LNR #вата and #Russian regular army. Goal - destabilization

Militants opened fire 40 times: 152 mm shells hit Krasnohorivka, Pavlopil, Lebedynske and Shyrokyne
http://dlvr.it/MvsCZd

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov: There's no #Russian Army in #Ukraine.
Hit #Russian T-72B1 MBT in #Debaltseve, #Ukraine Feb 2015.
https://twitter.com/UaForces/status/808071552952631296#

[OUTLAW 09]

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Swedes name Russia as the main source of cyberattacks and influence operations:
http://eepurl.com/ctApbP
#
#DisinfoReview

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia-controlled forces attacked near Svitlodars'k: 5 Ukrainian military killed, 6 - injured.

[OUTLAW 09]

Poroshenko will have an emergency meeting of the Council of national security and defense of the country tonight.

News agency of Novorussia just emitted an Urgent message saying Poroshenko could start a major offensive tonight.

Makiivka also hears the fighting. #Ukraine #Donbas. So far there's Yenakiieve, Yakovlevka, Makiivka, saw Marinka also.

Our thoughts are with #Ukraine and guys defending their country now. Bad situation at the front line

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian mercenaries claims UAF starts offensive........

I repeat, there is no credible source that there really is an Ukrainian offensive ongoing but fighting since this morning is confirmed!

Updated map from alleged Ukrainian offensive

Latest report from #Debaltseve (10 minutes ago) says artillery is still firing. Active for hours now.



Without a doubt the heaviest fighting since #Debaltseve assault in 2015


"[RU] got on an offensive near #Svitlodarsk(underlined yellow). Marked red must be UA acc 2 Minsk"

Strong battle continues in #Svitlodarsk

Stakhanov joined in, Russian Hybrid Army is firing artillery

Fake video being spread and fake story in its description. It's *not* Svitlodarsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBUFtThk0ks#

[OUTLAW 09]

Great map illustrating the operational capacity of #Russia's #nuclear-capable #Iskander-M #missiles.

[OUTLAW 09]

While fighting in #Svitlodarsk - #Vuhlehirsk area is ongoing, Ukrainian sources on the ground report 4 more Ukrainian soldiers got wounded

[OUTLAW 09]

While fighting in #Svitlodarsk - #Vuhlehirsk area is ongoing, Ukrainian sources on the ground report 4 more Ukrainian soldiers got wounded

‘Bloodiest battle in 5 months': Ukrainian troops repel 3 militant attacks near Svitlodarsk
http://dlvr.it/MwJVWF

Alarming. I don't remember the last time international monitors reported thousands of explosions in eastern #Ukraine. Heavy fighting indeed.

Volnovakha17:58 @solomazheka Became hot. Artillery is f*cking shelling

[OUTLAW 09]

Where are the political condemnations of Russia murdering, in a most horrendous fashion, 5 Ukrainian soldiers defending UA yesterday??

SIX wounded yesterday and another 4 today in a series of massive Russian ground attacks in two locations confirmed by OSCE...

World's eyes are on Ankara, but in past 48 hrs Russia/proxies stepped up the war on #Ukraine. 5 UA soldiers dead. Now attacks in #Toretsk

[OUTLAW 09]

Col. Andriy Lysenko: Enemy losses: about 50 militants dead and wounded in action in Svitlodarsk area

ATO spox: Mariupol sector: military situation remains intense at the same level as before

After 5 PM, enemy militants struck UA positions for the third time – intensity of enemy fire was larger than before

ATO spox: In the afternoon, militants performed 2nd attempt of assault, but also unsuccessfully

[Azor]

Great map illustrating the operational capacity of #Russia's #nuclear-capable #Iskander-M #missiles.

That is a great map.

Interestingly, Iskander in Kaliningrad, whether permanently or temporarily deployed, will not be unanswered.

Poland will have 24 SM-3 interceptors as part of Aegis Ashore, supplemented by two PAC-3SME batteries by the end of 2018.

In addition, at least four USN ships are based in Western Europe that have Aegis BMD capabilities, including SM-2, SM-3 and potentially SM-6.

This is to say nothing of upgrading the installations in Romania, or German Patriot coverage...

[OUTLAW 09]

So the heavy fighting around Svitlodarsk where Russian and pro-Russian forces took casualties was not reported in Russian news media?

UKRAINE: 2900 explosions recorded during heavy battle near #Svitlodarsk involving tanks, MRLS and artillery.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/12/20/2900-explosions-in-a-day-heavy-artillery-and-tank-fire-returns-to-the-front-lines-in-ukraine/?postshare=4371482237311678&tid=ss_tw#

Russian passports with #Rostov_on_Don registration found on the battle field at #Svitlodarsk_bulge.
http://novosti.dn.ua/news/264693-na-meste-boya-na-svetlodarskoy-duge-nashly-pasporta-s-rostovskoy-propyskoy#

Ru continues to pursue aggression. 47 attacks by Ru&militants in Donbas. Tanks,mortars,high calliber artillery used

[OUTLAW 09]

Breaking
Leading Russian state strategist Mikhail Alexandrov calls for long-range bombers, cruise missiles & Iskander rockets vs. #Ukraine.

Mikhail Aleksandrov, head of RISS in MGIMO: #Russia will only benefit when #Ukraine will be liberated from oppressive Bandera reign.

Ukraine has so many technological & industrial advantages Russia can feast on them & exploit them for Russian economical benefit & success.

Svitlodarks - 25th brigade reached on phone: separs trying to get back lost positions, ours hold firmly every sm of ground, sleep for 2 hrs

[OUTLAW 09]

As with Ukraine, the US no longer involved even in a token fashion in multilateral efforts in Syria.

Enakieve, 1pm - "the fun continues" = fighting goin on.

[OUTLAW 09]

Last Obama's month. Rus-separatist troops tried to break frontline at #Svitlodarsk in #Donbas, but #Ukraine army preventively destroyed them

"Ukraine war"? Still a running joke among #Russia’s generals at the ‘Joint Ceasefire Center’?

https://www.youtu.be/9hqcYJi42Mc?t=8m#

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO speaker denies that Ukrainian military is evacuating civilians from villages in the #Debaltseve area

Fighting Near Debaltsevo, Ukraine, Rages For Third Day
http://bit.ly/2h8CceB

Reports that moral among the separatist fighters is very low after #Svitlodarsk battles with many casualties. Some blame their own leaders.

Separatist leaders are unusually quiet about the #Svitlodarsk battle. Not a word from #Zakharchenko or famous commander Givi.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine investigates suspected #cyber attack on Kyiv power grid | Reuters
http://reut.rs/2i69QSA


Expert of RU Diplo academy: #Russia needs 2 act #Syria-style in #Ukraine. I.e. heavy bombardments 2 destroy infrastructure +install progov

[Azor]

http://warontherocks.com/2016/12/is-this-the-right-time-to-relieve-the-building-pressure-in-the-baltics/

With relations between Russia and the United States and its NATO allies having reached the lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we should all be greatly concerned that both sides are fielding destabilizing weapons upgrades while also deploying their military forces in a more forward posture. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Baltic Sea region. It is here that one finds a major concentration of military power in a very small space fraught with historical tragedy and contemporary geopolitical angst. Both NATO and Russia have placed a very high strategic value on this region and have steadily raised the stakes involved, following a classic security dilemma script. Packing ever-larger amounts of increasingly sophisticated and lethal military hardware into a space this size under heightened political pressures leaves very little margin for error, for which the consequences might be catastrophic.

Whether the present situation constitutes a “new Cold War” or not, extant geopolitical tensions must certainly give one pause, assuming that the avoidance of actual conflict is a mutually agreeable goal. But some, including Mark Stout writing recently in War on the Rocks, posit a full-blown, “inadvertent” war between Russia and NATO as made more likely by the election of Donald Trump, owing to the latter’s “coziness with Russian President Vladimir Putin” and his apparent low regard for the NATO alliance in general. Sir Richard Shirreff, until 2014 Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (making him the highest ranking European officer in the alliance), in a recent and widely reviewed book envisions a fictional war with Russia in 2017 made inevitable by naïve European politicians who impose severe cuts in their defense budgets and otherwise accommodate a predatory Russia.

These warnings miss the mark when it comes to what actually matters for minimizing the chance of fighting between the two sides: the urgent need to reverse the trend of rapidly increasing deployments, operational tempo, and exercises involving their respective military forces. With a new U.S. president suggesting a more conciliatory stance vis-à-vis Moscow taking office in one month, the time may be right for a proposal of ways to reduce the dangerous friction and the mutual perception (or misperception) of threat inherent in the present situation...

[OUTLAW 09]

Cited in part:
http://warontherocks.com/2016/12/is-this-the-right-time-to-relieve-the-building-pressure-in-the-baltics/

With relations between Russia and the United States and its NATO allies having reached the lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we should all be greatly concerned that both sides are fielding destabilizing weapons upgrades while also deploying their military forces in a more forward posture.

Azor.....EVER notice that some writers for warontherocks actually parrot the exact same statements of Putin just rewritten and packaged to "sound different".....

This was and is the aim of Putin and he so stated it immediately after the Trump election...."we can have great relations IF you get NATO to stop their exercises and reduce their troops and equipment in the Baltics....

WHAT the article totally appears to miss is the simple fact that up and until the Russian military annexation of Crimea...tensions in and around the Baltic and including Poland were actually a "tad quiet"....there had been underlying tensions in 2012/2013 between Russia and Ukraine over EU/NATO membership....BUT an outright violation of international law...ie using force to change international borders did not exist before Crimea.

Secondly, in the ramp up to Crimea and since then Russia has when it comes to military unannounced snap exercises "out exercised NATO" by a ratio of 3 to 1.....and NATO though on the other hand has correctly always announced via OSCE their exercise and always invited Russian observers...NOT so with Russian snap exercises....no invitation and no OSCE pre announcements in full violation of OSCE agreements...

All NATO Baltic and Polish exercises place 3005 emphasis on defense NOT o offensive operations OPPOSITE the Russian exercises which inherently are all offensive and coupled with tactical nuclear and CW use...BOTH CW and nuclear are never exercised by NATO in any of their exercises since 2014 and long before that actually the last time was 1989....

Since 2014....the Baltics...Finland...Sweden...Denmark and Ukraine have been hit with hard Russian state sponsored hacking attacks and have had massive Russian info warfare directed straight at them......

In Ukraine in 2016 we still see complete Russian non adherence to Minsk 2 and an average attack level of 26 to a max of 91 day for day for day...

NOW we see that the Russian mercenaries are via shelling attacks destroying Ukrainian villages much as Putin does with his AF in Syria.....

We see the Russian military basing new troop units and building new troop garrisons...within the 30 miles zones of the Baltics...with troop and unit counts far...far...far higher than the total number of Baltic and NATO exercising troop levels......

We see the new stationing of tactical nuclear missiles and the massive expansion of A2AD bubbles literally building a denial area in the Baltic Sea and along the NATO border which would hinder NATO coming to the assistance of the Baltics...Sweden...Finland and Poland....

We see the same thing now ongoing with the stationing of increased naval forces to deny the Baltic Sea sea lanes to NATO....

SO to write "withdraw everything and cut down on the exercises" totally overlooks actual Russian military moves in the area since actually 2012....and just how that is to "mollify" Putin is not answered by the wirter of the article.....

THIS is exactly why NATO is concerned with Trump's ties to Russia which have been more than proven....these ties were proven to have existed since 1987 before the Wall came down.......

BTW...you did I hope notice that into the article...not a single mention of the Russian military moves that I listed that occurred before NATO ramped up were even mentioned....the use of Kaliningrad as a leverage point against NATO has only been at the tail end of this Russian militarization along the NATO border and in eastern Ukraine/Crimea...

In some ways Putin recreated NATO that was slowly dying as there was nothing going on since the Wall came down. NATO was actually getting into more of the "climate change role before Crimea came along"..so when Putin made his moves and now screams "it is the fault of NATO".....hypocrisy reigns supreme and I am surprised that the writer supports the Russia position....

[OUTLAW 09]

Whilst all eyes on Russian ambassador assassination + Berlin, heavy clashes rage for 4th day around Svitlodarsk bulge #Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

Confirmation of @bellingcat / @SeaninDK findings regarding Russian artillery strikes from Jane's expert in AP story
https://apnews.com/a419b994ccf14a42977665a9af966ec3/Report:-Russians-regularly-shelled-eastern-Ukraine-in-2014#

We showed @bellingcat's report to two independent satellite imagery experts; they found the work serious, credible
https://apnews.com/a419b994ccf14a42977665a9af966ec3/Report:-Russians-regularly-shelled-eastern-Ukraine-in-2014#

On the impressive new @bellingcat report today: Open-Source Sleuths Document Russian Shelling Of #Ukraine In 2014
http://www.rferl.org/a/28189372.html

Bellingcat: Russian artillery strikes on Ukraine in 2015. Map
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/21-december-bellingcat-russian-artillery-strikes-on-ukraine#
https://bellingcatukraine.carto.com
#

[OUTLAW 09]

Crazy: The area where Ukis and (pro-)Russians battle now belongs all to #Ukraine acc. to Minsk.
But battling for it is a Minsk violation ...

[OUTLAW 09]

Turchynov: Ukrainian army captured new positions as result of counter-offensive near Svitlodarsk
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/21-december-turchynov-ukrainian-army-captured-new-positions#

Three days of fighting between #Svitlodarsk and #Debaltseve killed & wounded 49 Ukrainian troops.
8 KIA
41 WIA

[OUTLAW 09]

Medics of the 1st Military Battalion of the 54th Brigade sleep at night on the street #Svetlodarsk_Bulge
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1194631367241128&set=a.550162608354677.1073741834.100000828276750&type=3&theater#

[OUTLAW 09]

bellingcat ‏@bellingcat
Putin’s Undeclared War: Summer 2014 – Russian Artillery Strikes against Ukraine via @bellingcat

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2016/12/21/russian-artillery-strikes-against-ukraine/#…

[OUTLAW 09]

19:43 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM #Zaytseve direction: battle has started, #Vuhlehirsk direction: battle doesn't cease all day...

Battle hasn't stopped in front of #Debaltsevo, landings near Vuhlehirsk. Rumbles still heard from #Gorlovka.

19:18 #Svitlodarsk area @dadylollipop The sky is lighted by glow on 3 sides, the front is heard rumbling

[OUTLAW 09]

http://warontherocks.com/2016/12/is-this-the-right-time-to-relieve-the-building-pressure-in-the-baltics/

With relations between Russia and the United States and its NATO allies having reached the lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we should all be greatly concerned that both sides are fielding destabilizing weapons upgrades while also deploying their military forces in a more forward posture. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Baltic Sea region. It is here that one finds a major concentration of military power in a very small space fraught with historical tragedy and contemporary geopolitical angst. Both NATO and Russia have placed a very high strategic value on this region and have steadily raised the stakes involved, following a classic security dilemma script. Packing ever-larger amounts of increasingly sophisticated and lethal military hardware into a space this size under heightened political pressures leaves very little margin for error, for which the consequences might be catastrophic.

Whether the present situation constitutes a “new Cold War” or not, extant geopolitical tensions must certainly give one pause, assuming that the avoidance of actual conflict is a mutually agreeable goal. But some, including Mark Stout writing recently in War on the Rocks, posit a full-blown, “inadvertent” war between Russia and NATO as made more likely by the election of Donald Trump, owing to the latter’s “coziness with Russian President Vladimir Putin” and his apparent low regard for the NATO alliance in general. Sir Richard Shirreff, until 2014 Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (making him the highest ranking European officer in the alliance), in a recent and widely reviewed book envisions a fictional war with Russia in 2017 made inevitable by naïve European politicians who impose severe cuts in their defense budgets and otherwise accommodate a predatory Russia.

These warnings miss the mark when it comes to what actually matters for minimizing the chance of fighting between the two sides: the urgent need to reverse the trend of rapidly increasing deployments, operational tempo, and exercises involving their respective military forces. With a new U.S. president suggesting a more conciliatory stance vis-à-vis Moscow taking office in one month, the time may be right for a proposal of ways to reduce the dangerous friction and the mutual perception (or misperception) of threat inherent in the present situation...


Azor......
@MarkGaleotti on how Russia uses its military might for political ends in Europe
http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/heavy_metal_diplomacy_russias_political_use_of_its _military_in_europe_since#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

.@anneapplebaum on how Kremlin disinfo targeted her. (Was proud to have been included in some of these attacks):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/i-was-a-victim-of-a-russian-smear-campaign-i-understand-the-power-of-fake-news/2016/12/20/0dfdc2aa-c606-11e6-8bee-54e800ef2a63_story.html?utm_term=.d5123309e8dd#com ments#

[OUTLAW 09]

‘Bloodiest battle in 5 months': Ukrainian troops repel 3 militant attacks near Svitlodarsk
http://dlvr.it/MwJVWF

Alarming. I don't remember the last time international monitors reported thousands of explosions in eastern #Ukraine. Heavy fighting indeed.

Volnovakha17:58 @solomazheka Became hot. Artillery is f*cking shelling

The heaviest fighting in Ukraine in a year may be going on right now. Putin knows nobody is watching

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....more on the Russian tactical abilities.....


CNN
✔
@CNN
Russia has recently tested what is believed to be an anti-satellite weapon, sources tell CNN
http://cnn.it/2hcPIy7

[OUTLAW 09]

Confirmation of @bellingcat / @SeaninDK findings regarding Russian artillery strikes from Jane's expert in AP story
https://apnews.com/a419b994ccf14a42977665a9af966ec3/Report:-Russians-regularly-shelled-eastern-Ukraine-in-2014#

We showed @bellingcat's report to two independent satellite imagery experts; they found the work serious, credible
https://apnews.com/a419b994ccf14a42977665a9af966ec3/Report:-Russians-regularly-shelled-eastern-Ukraine-in-2014#

On the impressive new @bellingcat report today: Open-Source Sleuths Document Russian Shelling Of #Ukraine In 2014
http://www.rferl.org/a/28189372.html

Bellingcat: Russian artillery strikes on Ukraine in 2015. Map
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/21-december-bellingcat-russian-artillery-strikes-on-ukraine#
https://bellingcatukraine.carto.com


Frequency/distribution/scale of attacks mean these were not "accidents or actions of rogue units".

These were "acts of war" - @Bellingcat

[OUTLAW 09]

The heaviest fighting in Ukraine in a year may be going on right now. Putin knows nobody is watching



Vuhlehirsk 20:35
Reports about possible GRAD MRLS worked.

If GRADS have been fired the we are seeing a full scale Russian offensive in the making......

Heavy battle not ending in the #Debaltseve area. Flashes all over the sky in #Svitlodarsk direction locals report.

Russian proxies mortar-shelled Ukrainian troops’ positions near Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka and Luhanske, - Staff
http://dlvr.it/MxDzT7

[OUTLAW 09]

WE are now in a full scale Russo Ukrainian war


Battle of Svitlodarsk: full scale war underway by Russia against Ukraine. Volunteers report 19 Europe defenders KIA.
http://liveuamap.com

Pro Russian sources describe battle in #Debaltseve area as all out war with all kind of weapons used, including MLRS

[OUTLAW 09]

UN officially recognized #Crimea, #Ukraine as illegally #Russia-occupied. NOT 'disputed' territory
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/?utm_campaign=buffer&utm_content=bufferd1443&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com#

Serbia is playing 'a game of high-stakes poker' with its relationship to Russia — via @RFERL
http://read.bi/2hdplrM

Serbia playing EU/NATO off against Putin....EU/NATO have indicated to Serbia that they understand the game and at some point Serbia needs to make a decision....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia-held #Luhansk shows its losses &Ukrainians(GRAPHIC)#Svitlodarsk #Debaltseve #Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80n4A7wYziw#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4_GaoKw-tU#

Battle Near Debaltsevo Enters Fourth Day With Casualties Continuing To Mount
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-1038/#15800

[OUTLAW 09]

Excellent on the extent and scope of #ISIS attacks around the world since 2015.

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy outgoing artillery from #Donetsk, incoming fire in #Avdeevka

Heavy outgoing fire from #Horlivka now.

[OUTLAW 09]

.@PaulGoble1: Western defeatism is unjustified. Putin's victories are Pyrrhic. Russia has deep & abiding problems.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/12/21/western-defeatism-vis-a-vis-russia-just-as-unjustified-now-as-it-was-in-1979/#arvlbdata#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....another one for you...confirms the Putin aggression that is building....

Russians "urge" Canada 2 keep troops out of Latvia. Must be the same in the UK and GER re Estonia and Lithiuania.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/pb/news/politics/nato-mission-in-latvia-unwise-diversion-from-terror-fight-russian-envoy-says/article33397586/?arc404=true#

Russia criticizes Dutch over U.S. tanks, Crimean treasure
http://reut.rs/2igo27t

Putin's friend Prigozhin, sanctioned by US yesterday was behind one of Russia's first private military companies
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-imposes-sanctions-on-russian-restaurateur-with-ties-to-putin-1482281679#

[OUTLAW 09]

FULL WAR is currently ongoing...Russian mercenaries and Russian troops triggered a full ground offensive blaming it on the UAF and then UAF counterattacked taking ground....WHICH actually is Ukrainian based even on Minsk 2 ceasefire maps....Donetsk: Heavy fighting is ongoing. #Ukraine army has captured new positions southeast of #Svitlodarsk.

In Battle of Svitlodarsk, Russia is throwing men against fortified Ukrainian positions in bloody frontal assaults.
http://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news/28189229.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Frequency/distribution/scale of attacks mean these were not "accidents or actions of rogue units".

These were "acts of war" - @Bellingcat



More open source excellence from the ground-breaking @bellingcat team. Russian artillery attacks of summer 2014 caused massive loss of life

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-ukraine-drones-exclusive-idUSKBN14A26D?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Exclusive: U.S.-supplied drones disappoint Ukraine at the front lines

By Phil Stewart | WASHINGTON


Millions of dollars' worth of U.S.-supplied drones that Kiev had hoped would help in its war against Russian-backed separatists have proven ineffective against jamming and hacking, Ukrainian officials say.

The 72 Raven RQ-11B Analog mini-drones were so disappointing following their arrival this summer that Natan Chazin, an advisor to Ukraine's military with deep knowledge of the country's drone program, said if it were up to him, he would return them.

"From the beginning, it was the wrong decision to use these drones in our (conflict)," Chazin, an advisor to the chief of the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces, told Reuters.

The hand-launched Ravens were one of the recent highlights of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, aiming to give Kiev's military portable, light-weight, unarmed surveillance drones that were small enough to be used widely in the field. They are made by AeroVironment, a privately held U.S. company.

But they appear to have fallen short in a battle against the separatists, who benefit from far more sophisticated military technology than insurgencies the West has contended with in Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria.

Whether President-elect Donald Trump's administration might seek to provide Kiev anything more robust, however, is unclear, given his stated desire to improve ties with Russia and prioritize the fight against Islamic militants. U.S. restrictions on technology exports could also limit new aid.

The Air Force command of Ukraine's armed forces acknowledged to Reuters that the Ravens supplied by the United States had a fundamental drawback: Russia and the separatist forces it supports can intercept and jam their video feeds and data.

"The complex is analog, therefore command channels and data are not protected from interception and suppression by modern means of electronic warfare," it said.

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that Russia's electronic warfare capabilities were far more sophisticated than thought when the conflict began and that both the U.S. and Ukrainian militaries were adapting.

Asked about Ukraine's reaction to the Ravens, one official said it took a considerable amount of time for the drones to reach Ukraine and that by then "they were much less effective than they would have liked, than we would have liked."

The U.S. Army told Reuters it still uses Ravens but has upgraded to digital versions.

"STONE AGE"
Some 38 Ukrainian students were trained at Redstone Arsenal in Alabama on how to operate the drones between March and July this year, a U.S. Army spokesman said.

Ukraine said it distributed the Ravens across the services and gave one batch to the Zhytomry Military Institute for training purposes.

There were mixed accounts on how much the Ravens were being used in Ukraine, which saw Crimea annexed by Russia in 2014 and which has been fighting Russian-backed separatist forces in the east. Nearly 10,000 people have died in the conflict.

The Air Force command of Ukraine's armed forces said they were being used in the "Anti-Terrorist Operation" zone, including in combat situations.

One Ukrainian official, however, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that although drones were being used in the zone, they were not employed on the front lines.

Chazin said they were largely in storage and called them a vulnerability, allowing the enemy to see Ukrainian military positions and, when it wanted, easily take them down. They had short battery life and were unable to reliably fulfill the key mission of gaining intelligence on artillery positions, he said.
"(Analog) basically puts you back in the stone age of the UAVs," said James Lewis, director of the strategic technologies program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, using an acronym for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, or drones.

"I'm not being critical of the Raven. I love the Raven ... But it's a cheap, disposable UAV. And for more intense conflict, that may not cut the ice anymore."


The drones, along with other U.S.-supplied items like radar, first-aid kits, night vision and communications gear, fit into President Barack Obama's strategy of providing non-lethal military assistance while focusing on sanctions and diplomacy to end the war.

Within that context, the miniature drones, even though small, were a noteworthy element of the more than $600 million in training and equipment that the United States has provided Ukraine so far. Ukraine pegged the Raven program's value at over $12 million.

How Trump might alter U.S. support remains unclear, particularly given cabinet picks that include retired Marine General James Mattis, who has been vocal about his concerns about Russia and was nominated to become U.S. defense secretary.

Some of the most prominent Republican lawmakers in Congress have called for Ukraine to receive lethal arms.

"If anything, it creates a new opportunity," said Luke Coffey at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington think-tank.

Ukrainian officials have sought to put a brave face on Trump's election, downplaying comments on the campaign trail that included appearing to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and contemplating an end to U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Topping Ukraine's wish list are Javelin anti-tank missiles made by made by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. The top U.S. military officer in Europe, General Curtis Scaparrotti, told a Senate hearing this year "there's a requirement for an anti-tank weapon, like Javelin."

One of the U.S. officials cautioned about limitations on America's ability to export drones that can evade Russia's electronic warfare capabilities.

That could leave Ukraine's military to continue building drones from commercially available technology. It now assembles them from components supplied by firms in countries such as Australia, China and the Czech Republic for only $20,000 to $25,000 apiece, Chazin said, and they are more advanced than the more pricey Ravens, which are often funded from private donations.

[OUTLAW 09]

Jakub Janda @_JakubJanda
We measured impact of pro-Kremlin disinformation in the Czech Republic.

Here is my op-ed for @observer:
http://bit.ly/2hsaoy6

[Azor]

Cited in part:

Azor.....EVER notice that some writers for warontherocks actually parrot the exact same statements of Putin just rewritten and packaged to "sound different".....

This was and is the aim of Putin and he so stated it immediately after the Trump election...."we can have great relations IF you get NATO to stop their exercises and reduce their troops and equipment in the Baltics....

WHAT the article totally appears to miss is the simple fact that up and until the Russian military annexation of Crimea...tensions in and around the Baltic and including Poland were actually a "tad quiet"....there had been underlying tensions in 2012/2013 between Russia and Ukraine over EU/NATO membership....BUT an outright violation of international law...ie using force to change international borders did not exist before Crimea.

Secondly, in the ramp up to Crimea and since then Russia has when it comes to military unannounced snap exercises "out exercised NATO" by a ratio of 3 to 1.....and NATO though on the other hand has correctly always announced via OSCE their exercise and always invited Russian observers...NOT so with Russian snap exercises....no invitation and no OSCE pre announcements in full violation of OSCE agreements...

All NATO Baltic and Polish exercises place 3005 emphasis on defense NOT o offensive operations OPPOSITE the Russian exercises which inherently are all offensive and coupled with tactical nuclear and CW use...BOTH CW and nuclear are never exercised by NATO in any of their exercises since 2014 and long before that actually the last time was 1989....

Since 2014....the Baltics...Finland...Sweden...Denmark and Ukraine have been hit with hard Russian state sponsored hacking attacks and have had massive Russian info warfare directed straight at them......

In Ukraine in 2016 we still see complete Russian non adherence to Minsk 2 and an average attack level of 26 to a max of 91 day for day for day...

NOW we see that the Russian mercenaries are via shelling attacks destroying Ukrainian villages much as Putin does with his AF in Syria.....

We see the Russian military basing new troop units and building new troop garrisons...within the 30 miles zones of the Baltics...with troop and unit counts far...far...far higher than the total number of Baltic and NATO exercising troop levels......

We see the new stationing of tactical nuclear missiles and the massive expansion of A2AD bubbles literally building a denial area in the Baltic Sea and along the NATO border which would hinder NATO coming to the assistance of the Baltics...Sweden...Finland and Poland....

We see the same thing now ongoing with the stationing of increased naval forces to deny the Baltic Sea sea lanes to NATO....

SO to write "withdraw everything and cut down on the exercises" totally overlooks actual Russian military moves in the area since actually 2012....and just how that is to "mollify" Putin is not answered by the wirter of the article.....

THIS is exactly why NATO is concerned with Trump's ties to Russia which have been more than proven....these ties were proven to have existed since 1987 before the Wall came down.......

BTW...you did I hope notice that into the article...not a single mention of the Russian military moves that I listed that occurred before NATO ramped up were even mentioned....the use of Kaliningrad as a leverage point against NATO has only been at the tail end of this Russian militarization along the NATO border and in eastern Ukraine/Crimea...

In some ways Putin recreated NATO that was slowly dying as there was nothing going on since the Wall came down. NATO was actually getting into more of the "climate change role before Crimea came along"..so when Putin made his moves and now screams "it is the fault of NATO".....hypocrisy reigns supreme and I am surprised that the writer supports the Russia position....

You know my view on how the Clinton and Bush administrations stupidly contributed to these rising tensions. You also know that I believe Putin is predictable and not spontaneous, and that he is well aware of the difference between annexing Crimea and annexing Narva.

Having said that, irrespective of whether my understanding of Russian intentions and calculations is correct or not, NATO as an organization should have concluded that Russia was a greater threat after the Crimean invasion. Whether that threat level rose from 1 to 2, 2 to 4 or 4 to 8 out of 10, is up for debate.

Although I am opposed to the EPAA (Aegis Ashore) because I find it strategically de-stabilizing, I see none of NATO’s other initiatives as provocative, and I believe that the reinforcement of the eastern flank has been incredibly slow.

As far as Russia’s Western Military District is concerned, how would it not be bristling? It contains Russia’s two largest cities, including its capital. Any defenses around Saint Petersburg would threaten the Baltic republics and Finland due to the city’s proximity to the border.

Putin did give NATO a shot in the arm, and it is time to make sure that the Baltic Republics and Poland bristle with ATGMs, AShMs, SAMs and mines while there is still political will to do so.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....this is my concern for the countless Russian snap exercises carried out over the last three years....they are getting bigger......more complex and now cover the use of CW and nuclear...they have exercised ...calling up reservists...mobilizing the general public and industries...all ADs and all nuclear forces and their tank/infantry professional divisions....ALL the elements needed to be tested if in fact going to war was their aim....

AND NATO nowhere close to these levels of exercises....

"Sudden checks of combat readiness confirmed the possibility of troops transfers over long distances in a short time"

This was exactly what we watched for intently in the Cold War Soviet exercises which they would tend to try and hide from us and the intel collectors....

BUT now they do it openly and aggressively AND to not even register them as required with OSCE nor do they allow observers as required by OSCE...

[OUTLAW 09]

Shoygu: British Army using Russian-made tanks as “enemy" in Salisbury Plain exercises is like Nazi drills in WWII
http://www.bbc.com/russian/news-38401927#


STILL the ongoing Russian propaganda that the problem lies with NATO not Russia.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Yesterday 11 Ukrainian soldiers got wounded in #Svitlodarsk battles, no KIA's reported by the ATO HQ.

Russian ground offensive is winding down..only 24 attacks were recorded yesterday...

[OUTLAW 09]

Robert M. Lee
✔
@RobertMLee

I was interviewed for a CBS piece on the 2015 Ukraine power grid attack a few months ago; it aired last night:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-hacks-into-ukraine-power-grids-may-be-a-sign-of-things-to-come/#


Interesting to say the least....
Belarusian MFA summoned Russian representative because of the statement that Belarus can't be the independent (from Russia) state

[OUTLAW 09]

Kommersant: Sergei Shoigu considers the anti-Russian direction of military exercises by NATO member countries unacceptable.

But practicing nuking militarily unallied nations like Sweden/Finland is totally OK.

[OUTLAW 09]

Cybersecurity firm finds evidence that #Russia|n #military unit was behind #DNC #hack
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cybersecurity-firm-finds-a-link-between-dnc-hack-and-ukrainian-artillery/2016/12/21/47bf1f5a-c7e3-11e6-bf4b-2c064d32a4bf_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_fancybear-1210am:homepage/story&utm_campaign=DNC%20Guccifer%202.0%20Fancy%20Bears% 20Research&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_term=.6c18a07900ab#


http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/12/22/world/europe/22reuters-lithuania-cyber.html?ref=world&_r=0
Lithuania Said Found Russian Spyware on Its Government Computers

By REUTERSDEC. 22, 2016, 7:30 A.M. E.S.T.


VILNIUS — The Baltic state of Lithuania, on the frontline of growing tensions between the West and Russia, says the Kremlin is responsible for cyber attacks that have hit government computers over the last two years.

The head of cyber security told Reuters three cases of Russian spyware on its government computers had been discovered since 2015, and there had been 20 attempts to infect them this year

"The spyware we found was operating for at least half a year before it was detected – similar to how it was in the USA," Rimtautas Cerniauskas, head of Lithuanian Cyber Security Centre said.

The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a Reuters written request for comments over the Lithuanian claims. But Russia has in the past denied accusations of hacking Western institutions.

Fears of cyber attacks have come to the fore since the U.S. election campaign when hacking of Democratic Party emails led to allegations from U.S. intelligence that Russia was involved.

Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, all ruled by Moscow in communist times, have been alarmed by Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in 2014 and its support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

In what Baltic officials say was a wake-up call, Estonia was hit by cyber attacks on extensive private and government Internet sites in 2007. State websites were brought to a crawl and an online banking site was closed.

Lithuanian intelligence services, in their annual report, say cyber attacks have moved from being mainly targeted at financial crimes to more political spying on state institutions.

Russian spyware was transferring all documents it could find, as well as all passwords entered on websites such as GMail or Facebook, to an internet address commonly used by Russian spy agencies, Cerniaukas said.
"This only confirms that attempts are made to infiltrate our political sphere," said Cerniaukas.

PREPARATIONS
Germany's domestic intelligence agency reported earlier this month a striking increase in Russian targeted cyber attacks against political parties and propaganda and disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilising German society.

The domestic intelligence chief said Russia may seek to interfere in its national elections next year.
Although no Russian cyber meddling was detected in the run up and during the Lithuanian general election in October, Cerniauskas said his country needs to understand it is vulnerable to such meddling.

"Russians are really quite good in this area. They have been using information warfare since the old times. Cyberspace is part of that, only more frowned upon by law than simple propaganda", he said.

"They have capacity, they have the attitude, they are interested, and they will get to it – so we need to prepare for it and we need to apply countermeasures."

Lithuanian officials targeted by the Russian spyware held mid-to-low ranking positions at the government, but their computers contained a stream of drafts for government decisions of its positions on various matters, said Cerniauskas.

The head of the Lithuanian counter-intelligence agency Darius Jauniskis said Russia tried to sow chaos in Lithuania by orchestrating a cyber attack in 2012 against the Lithuanian central bank and its top online news website.

"It is all part of psychological warfare," he told Reuters earlier this month.

[OUTLAW 09]

Reports that Russian Hybrid Army started two breakthrough attempts in the #Svetlodarsk_Bulge today, both repelled

Video from Russian side near #Svitlodarsk today, heavy incoming fire:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sWPJF2llXyA#

UK citizen Graham Phillips correcting fire of Russian forces near Svitlodars'k today
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/22-december-uk-citizen-graham-phillips-correcting-fire-of#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWPJF2llXyA#

Phillips has been working as a UK citzen for the Russian military news agency and has been decorated by the FSB for his reporting as a UK citizen in eastern Ukraine....

Miroslav Gai: Russian forces executed 2 of the 3 Ukr servicemen they captured 3 days ago at the #Svitlodarsk_bulge
https://inforesist.org/gay-naemniki-rf-kaznili-dvuh-boytsov-vzyatyih-v-plen-v-boyah-na-svetlodarskoy-duge/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Humor for the day....

[OUTLAW 09]

Nolan Peterson @nolanwpeterson
My latest article: ‘We Have to Defend Our Motherland’: On the Front Lines of #Ukraine’s War @DailySignal

http://dailysignal.com/2016/12/21/we-have-to-defend-our-motherland-on-the-front-lines-of-ukraines-war/#

Former USAF SOF turned journalist....has reported often in the past two years from the front lines of UAF....

[OUTLAW 09]

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Write up of the bizarre Russia-hacked-Ukrainian-artillery story.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/22/russia-linked-dnc-hackers-targeted-ukrainian-army/#

Report
(Pro-)#Russian terrorists tortured 2 of the 3 Ukrainian Army POWs they took on Monday to death.
https://inforesist.org/gay-naemniki-rf-kaznili-dvuh-boytsov-vzyatyih-v-plen-v-boyah-na-svetlodarskoy-duge/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy fighting still rages....Russians have expanded their ground offensive...WEST totally ignores the heavy ground fighting...this is now open war...

Brutal Fighting Continues Near Debaltsevo, While Another Attempted Assault Reported Near Mariupol.
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-1040/?pressId=15812#

Russians are finding it extremely hard to punch through the heavily defended UAf positions....and are not finding via Russian spetsnaz troops holes in the UAF defensive lines....

UAF is fighting well.....NATO should pay attention to just how well......the Ukrainian troop determination coupled with NATO training is paying off well now......UAF is now overmatching the Russians and slowly winning territory back that Russians had taken in 2015....

[OUTLAW 09]

Heavy fighting is still ongoing ...UAF making slow and steady headway in regaining lost villages and towns in the grey zone against stiff Russian fighting...

Donbas Battalion gearing up for the fight in #Novoluhanske Report of active fighting in the area #Svitlodarsk_bulge @InfoResist

Andrei Tsaplienko: #Novoluhanske in the gray zone declared "liberated" with 46th Battalion Donbass forces in the village & surrounding area

[pro-RU source] @chernaykoshka8 "Husband had a narrow escape fr/#Novoluhanske, UAF entered in full gear. [SPGs, howitzers in res. area]"

ATO spox: Over the previous day, 2 UA servicemen were killed in action, 3 were WIA
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/23-december-ato-spox-over-the-previous-day-2-ua-servicemen#

Luhansk airport. Must be SP mortar 2S4 Tyulpan foxholes. Defenders were evaced on time

After confirmed capture of Novoluhanske by Ukrainian Army, pro Russian sources claim UA is further advancing towards Dolomitne

Dolomitne is occupied by Russian Hybrid Army according to the map by @Liveuamap





.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukr Gen Staff: 1 serviceman which was MIA/POW is dead. Since 18 Dec in #Svitlodarsk_bulge 9 KIA, 35 WIA, 17 concussion, 11 various injuries.

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems right now in #Svitlodarsk #Russians use South-Ossetia's scenario that led to Georgian War - constant shelling.
https://twitter.com/toreckiy_ukrop/status/812384125474770948#

[OUTLAW 09]

Military maps now shows #Novoluhanske as Ukrainian controlled with defense positions and fighting south-west of it

Russia is tying to provoke Ukraine to use heavier weapons and gain better leverage to attack them.

About an hour until a new truce comes into effect in eastern #Ukraine. Meanwhile #Horlivka locals describe outgoing fire as hardcore & hell.

72 minutes till the newest ceasefire-in-ceasefire-in-ceasefire in #Donbas.

[OUTLAW 09]

December 22 established Intl Tribunal to consider a violation of UN Convention on the Maritime Law after occupation of Crimea by Russia

[OUTLAW 09]

Merry Christmas and a safe slide into the New Year........

Taking a few days off.....The worlds violence will still be us in 2017........

[OUTLAW 09]

Just-in. #Vodyanoi @ #Mariupol, #вата shells /w mortar, 30mm nades (SPG), RPG, MG fire. Heavy fighting. Ceasefire? No, never noticed!

[OUTLAW 09]

Russians dream of using air force and Iskander missiles against Ukraine (VIDEO English subtitles)
http://nplm.in/fer
#

[OUTLAW 09]

Crimean #Tatar leader: Four former Soviet states mull recognizing #Crimea as #Russia
http://uatoday.tv/politics/crimean-tatar-leader-four-former-soviet-states-mull-recognizing-crimea-as-russia-853918.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social#

They are not so sure they might not get hit with sanctions which the EU will expand if they do....

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO HQ says Russian Hybrid Army had 18 KIA's, 38 WIA's during the last week

33 recorded attacks on Ukrainian positions by Russias militants despite new 'ceasefire' agreements.
http://www.unian.info/war/1698177-no-ceasefire-in-donbas-militants-attack-ukraine-33-times-in-last-day-poltorak.html#

Over the week, Ukrainian troops have registered 12 episodes of hostile drones conducting aerial reconnaissance

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian Secret Service uncovers network of “DNR/LNR” informants in#Toretsk
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/12/27/ukrainian-secret-service-uncovers-network-of-dnrlnr-informants-in-toretsk/#

[Azor]

Do you have any details as to the following:

Updated (pro)Russian casualties?
Updated Ukrainian casualties?
Updated Russian casualties?

How has the ratio in frontline strength been changing since Debaltsevo, and the ratio of losses?

I recall reading that at the height of fighting, the Russians would rotate up to 9,000 soldiers into Donbas, but that the number is 3,000 or less now. Of course, there are also the intelligence officers and mercenaries embedded with the insurgents...

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian militants committed 37 attacks yesterday, used tanks, IFVs, 122 mm cannons, - Staff
http://dlvr.it/Mz838L

[OUTLAW 09]

Do you have any details as to the following:

Updated (pro)Russian casualties?
Updated Ukrainian casualties?
Updated Russian casualties?

How has the ratio in frontline strength been changing since Debaltsevo, and the ratio of losses?

I recall reading that at the height of fighting, the Russians would rotate up to 9,000 soldiers into Donbas, but that the number is 3,000 or less now. Of course, there are also the intelligence officers and mercenaries embedded with the insurgents...

Azor.....will see if I can chase down the numbers...UAF figures are easier to get than Russian loses....

The current figure of 3000 Russians seems a tad low...my last figure was 6000 and rotating.....example the Russian Graduate Artillery School for artillery officers ...the entire class was in eastern Ukraine in the last weeks ground offensive actually participating in artillery fire against UAF positions...confirmed by SBU voice intercept and SBU humint intel.....

Mainly Russian units from GRU/Spetsnaz...artillery....maintenance and logistics...some mech units but limited there....a lot of Russian officer trainers though.....and Russian officers inside the various separatist units who actually command and control them....so the numbers are hard to analyze.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Council of Foreign Affairs in their Dec'16 issue blame the Baltic States in a decade long arms race against Russia
http://russiancouncil.ru/common/upload/Russia-Baltic-Paper35-ru.pdf#

WHAT the heck does this mean....???

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...this is humor but it is more interesting due to the Russian graveyard for those killed in eastern Ukraine....all graves are unmarked....just with numbers...

Today at @mfa_russia we are not holding a minute's silence for nameless Russian vacationers like 2176 and 2178 who have died in Ukraine.

[OUTLAW 09]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eo1QyJrH0g#

… Serhiy Rubanchikov, 36, #Maidan'er, laid to rest in #Kyiv. Died at #Svitlodarsk_bulge. #Svitlodarsk #Ukraine #Russia

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING
Head of Foreign Relation Study /w EU at St. Petersburg University regards #Finland & #Sweden as part of the Baltic states.

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO spox: UA mil intel reports 1 militant killed & several wounded as a result of discord within militants` ranks.

LNR group's 43 y.o. "minister of agriculture" died suddenly. One of LNR initiators in 2014.

Russian Zvezda TV reporting about "LNR" group casualties near Debal'tseve
https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/status/813754269102903300/photo/1pic.twitter.com/AIw8xypidw#
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/27-december-russian-zvezda-tv-reporting-about-lnr-group-casualties#…

Tim Hogan ‏@TimInHonolulu 25m
25 minutes ago

Developments in Russian occupied Ukraine. Did Trump's RF creditors read "Trading with Enemy Act?" War w/Russia = no Trump debt to Russians.

How Russian Kalmyk soldiers "got lost" in #Ukraine steppes - investigation
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-kalmyk-soldiers-got-lost-in-ukraine-steppes-osint-investigation-854673.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social#

[OUTLAW 09]

“I’m no war criminal, I’m a terrorist” – confession of a Russian soldier
https://informnapalm.org/en/m-no-war-criminal-m-terrorist-confession-russian-soldier/#

[OUTLAW 09]

THIS is extremely important...goes to the point that the US often via Biden has applied pressure on Ukraine to constantly compromise even on their own decisions first on Minsk 2 and recently with the Israeli UNSC vote which Ukraine did not publicly support as they were in the process of establishing closer relations with Israel......

“Did Biden put pressure on the Ukrainians? Categorically yes.”#
http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/221128/phone-call-from-biden-said-to-precipitate-ukraines-un-yes-vote#


The same Biden and Obama who both never wanted to give Ukraine true defensive weapons ie ATGMs......

"Phone call bt Poroshenko and Biden took place on Dec 19th...Ukrainian wanted to postpone vote as a gesture to the Israelis, but US refused"

[OUTLAW 09]

Crimea belongs Ukraine to Henry Kissinger has 'advised Donald Trump to accept' Crimea as part of Russia | The Independent
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/henry-kissinger-russia-trump-crimea-advises-latest-ukraine-a7497646.html#

HAS Kissinger also received large amounts of lobbying money from Russia?...Yes he has over the years....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian MFA on behalf of Russian MoD openly accuses #Estonia not using common sense, making #RuAF jets fly transponders off.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....

Russian MoD humanitarian convoy that dropped by Ukrainian in occupied territories brought back to 40 KIA frm local morgues.

This was from the latest round of ground offensives...

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Hybrid Army pull GRAD missile systems to the #Svitlodark frontline
http://24today.net/open/712370

[OUTLAW 09]

The Journal of Intelligence & Terrorism studies based in Cambridge Uni has closed after revelations of Kremlin links
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/28/cambridge-spy-journal-shuts-row-links-russia/amp/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia speaks with fifth columns in Baltics and Poland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njCjKWMy2n0#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia hacked OSCE (in French)
http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2016/12/28/l-osce-victime-d-une-attaque-informatique_5054744_3210.html#


OSCE security monitors targeted by hackers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38451064#

OSCE, which monitors war in Ukraine, victim of cyberattack. Allegedly carried out by Russian group tied to DNC hack.
http://reut.rs/2idNlYX

[OUTLAW 09]

Social media report of a KIA with the 12th Battalion in #Avdiivka today

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia attacks #Ukraine : 20-29 sept 2015 : 3.400 military vehicules, 800 tanks, 2.600 trucks. #Donetsk #Luhansk

[OUTLAW 09]

Stop Fake @StopFakingNews
Fake: Ukrainian army tank crushes car with passenger
http://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-ukrainian-army-tank-crushes-car-with-passenger/#

In direct violation of all OSCE agreements to destroy these tanks...Russia kept finding reasons to not destroy them and NOW...

Putin is 'upgrading up to 3,000 tanks' that have been hidden away since the end of the Cold War
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-putin-tanks-soviet-era-back-into-service-a7436951.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

50 attacks on UAF across the entire Minsk 2 front line.......

Two Ukrainian soldiers were killed, two were wounded due to fighting yesterday

Near Kruta Balka, Russian Hybrid Army tried to storm Ukrainian positions but were repelled

Yesterday Russian Hybrid Army attacked Ukrainian positions near #Svitlodarsk for 6 hours

[OUTLAW 09]

Due to severe black outs in #Crimea Crimeans were asked to abandon electricity use wood & coal.


IMPORTANT if confirmed......

Russia's Gazprom cuts pressure in pipeline taking gas to EU: Naftogaz Ukraine reports

Direct violation of all Gazprom delivery contracts both with EU and Ukraine.....would bring into question the new pipeline Russia wants to build around Ukraine via Baltic Nordstream 2....

[OUTLAW 09]

Poor #Russia is just the victim of the evil Obama administration, Russian FM spox claims.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWG26o3zA-s#…

A whining Russia is unusual these days....BUT WAIT...their good friend Donald will ride to their rescue.

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: Another Russian Gen in charge of VDV during 2014 Invasion of UKRAINE suddenly dies at 51..


“It is Russia’s intention to destabilize the German government and so weaken our democracy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/cff20452-c1fb-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fhome_u s%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#

Germany to set up specialist centre to combat #fakenews
http://ibt.uk/A6hqY?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=/germany-set-specialist-centre-combat-fake-news-1598518#

[OUTLAW 09]

Bur Light Rocket Launcher delivered to Russian National Guard Special Units. Read more
http://bit.ly/2fOepv3

[OUTLAW 09]

First Ukrainian Soldier Killed In Fighting Since Abortive December 24 Truce Effort
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-1046/

TOP TEN Russian fake news/propaganda....in Russian
informnapalm.org/31645-top-10-fejkov-rossijskoj-propagandy-2016#

6,500 cyberattacks against Ukraine govt facilities, infrastructure past 2 months, says @poroshenko. Blames Russia special services for most

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...another Russian KIA shipment.....

OSCE spots vehicle for KIA transportation on Ukraine-Russia border
http://www.unian.info/war/1705082-osce-spots-vehicle-for-kia-transportation-on-ukraine-russia-border.html#

This semi trailer can haul upwards of 100-125 bodies per load....

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: In #Donetsk with shot to the head wife of #Donetsk People's Republic leader Zakharchenko was killed.

[OUTLAW 09]

To all those that have commented here and or read through the year this thread........

Have a Happy New and a safe slide into 2017........

I am heading into Berlin to attend the largest street party in Europe....over 1M from the Victory Column to the Brandenburger Tor on the 17th of June street (historically important for Germany)..........and for a spectacular fireworks display......

Again stay safe and secure in 2017...the Russian war in Syria/Ukraine and the Russian hacking attacks on both the US...Ukraine and Europe will rejoin us in the New Year...AM 3000% sure of that..

BTW....Merkel gave her New Years speech today.....WHILE all have critiqued her decision on accepting 1.2M refugees...this sentence stands out as a beacon of light in this crazy world and counters deeply Trump...
All the horrors of war crimes and genocide being committed in Aleppo daily in front of the entire world has shown that we were correct in our decision to accept refugees in need....I am proud of how the German people have accepted the challenge...but we still have more to do....