Iraq in 2017

[JWing]

Continued reports that IS's Baghdadi has been killed.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chief-reported-dead-jihadists-lose-mosul-131559475.html

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 1 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-1-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 2 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-2-jul-12-2017.html). Fighting still going on inside city.

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 3 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-3-jul-13-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 4 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-4-jul-14-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 5 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-5-jul-15-2017.html). Heavy fighting still going on in Old City district.

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 6 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-6-jul-16-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Liberation Mosul day 7 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-7-jul-17-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 8 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-8-jul-18-2017.html) plus I calculated casualty figures for just iside Mosul during the campaign.

[davidbfpo]

SWJ Blog has a pointer to a WoTR article on the CTS:https://warontherocks.com/2017/07/the-best-thing-america-built-in-iraq-iraqs-counter-terrorism-service-and-the-long-war-against-militancy/

The article refers to a forthcoming Brookings paper by David Witty, which I found today via Twitter. It is a slim detailed history:https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/David-Witty-Paper_Final_Web.pdf

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 9 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-9-jul-19-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Liberation Mosul Day 10 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-10-jul-20-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 11 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-11-jul-21-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation day 12 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-12-jul-22-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation day 13 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-13-jul-23-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 14 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-14-jul-24-2017.html).

[SWJ Blog]

Iraqi Forces Control Mosul, Fighting Continues in Raqqa (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/iraqi-forces-control-mosul-fighting-continues-in-raqqa)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/iraqi-forces-control-mosul-fighting-continues-in-raqqa) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation day 15 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-15-jul-25-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 16 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-16-jul-26-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 17 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-17-jul-27-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 19 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-19-jul-29-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 20 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/post-mosul-liberation-day-20-jul-30-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 21 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-21-jul-31-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 22 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-22-aug-1-2017.html).

[JWing]

Just calculated July casualty figures for Iraq. With Mosul battle concluded deaths, wounded, and incidents all going down. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/1459-killed-636-wounded-in-iraq-july.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 23-24 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-23-24-aug-2-3.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 25 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-25-aug-4-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Liberation Mosul Day 26-27 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-26-27-aug-5-6.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 28 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-28-aug-7-2017.html)

[JWing]

Babil province is seeing an increase in terrorist activity by the Islamic State as well as the Hashd trying to drive people out of the northeast before the next pilgrimage. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/islamic-state-terrorism-and-hashd.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 29-30 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-29-30-aug-8-9.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 31 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-31-aug-10-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation day 32-33 (https://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-32-33-aug-11.html)

[JWing]

IS still has access to some oil fields No Country for Oil Men: Tracking Islamic State’s Oil Assets in Iraq (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/08/11/no-country-oil-men-tracking-islamic-states-oil-assets-iraq/)

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 34 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-34-aug-13-2017.html).

[JWing]

Post Mosul Liberation Day 35 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-35-aug-14-2017.html)

[JWing]

Iraqi govt made no plans for security when it went on offensive. Now has turned to ad hoc tribal and local Hashd forces for security which are now showing their shortcomings. Here's a link to the article. (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/troubles-of-tribal-and-local-hashd-in.html)

[JWing]

Just did weekly security report for 1st week of August. Since Mosul battle over Iraq witnessing historic lows in incidents and casualties. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/security-in-iraq-aug-1-7-2017.html).

[JWing]

Weekly security report for 2nd week of August in Iraq. Here's a link (https://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/security-in-iraq-aug-8-14-2017.html).

[JWing]

Michael Knights prediction on the next stage of the IS insurgency in Iraq from the CTC Sentinel
https://ctc.usma.edu/posts/predicting-the-shape-of-iraqs-next-sunni-insurgencies

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle has started in Iraq. Here's a link for an overview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/start-of-tal-afar-battle.html).

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle day 2. Here's a link to the article (https://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-iraqi-forces-isf-continued-to.html).

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle day 3 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-3.html).

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle Day 4 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-4.html)

[JWing]

Tal Afar Battle day 5 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-5.html)

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle day 6 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-6.html)

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle day 7 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-7.html)

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle day 8 - finished (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-8-completed.html).

[JWing]

Tal Afar Battle Day 9 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-9.html)

[JWing]

Tal Arar Battle Day 10 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-10.html)

[JWing]

Tal Afar Battle Day 11 (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/tal-afar-battle-day-11.html)

[JWing]

Tal Afar battle done onto Hawija? (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/tal-afar-battle-done-onto-hawija.html)

[JWing]

Did my monthly security report for August 2017. Several mass graves found with IS victims, while it is rebuilding its insurgent networks in Diyala and Salahaddin. Here's a link (https://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/1958-killed-and-1261-wounded-in-iraq-in.html).

[JWing]

Fallujah was liberated in June 2016 but rebuilding has run into problems which foreshadowed what has and will happen in other cities liberated in Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/rebuilding-fallujah-unfinished-business.html).

[JWing]

Kurds are complaining about upcoming Hawija operation in Kirkuk over who will be involved plans etc. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/arguing-over-upcoming-hawija-operation.html).

[JWing]

Security report for 1st week of Sep in Iraq. Here's a link (https://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/security-in-iraq-sep-1-7-2017.html).

[JWing]

Iraq planning on attacking the three remaining areas of country under Islamic State control simultaneously. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/hawija-shirqat-west-anbar-all-expected.html).

[JWing]

During Mosul campaign Der Spiegel published article about torture and abuse by Interior Ministry forces. Was roundly attacked in Iraq, but now the story was confirmed. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/der-spiegel-reporting-on-abuse-by-iraqi.html).

[JWing]

Iraqi forces started WAnbar campaign over the weekend. Will be different then previous ops and go in stages. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/west-anbar-operation-to-proceed-in.html).

[JWing]

Security report for 2nd wk of Sep in Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/security-in-iraq-sep-8-14-2017.html).

[JWing]

2nd stage of west Anbar op. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/rihana-latest-town-take-in-operation-to.html).

[JWing]

Iraqis still pushing into west Anbar while preparing for Shirqat in Salahaddin and Hawija in Kirkuk. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/iraqi-forces-continue-to-advance-in.html).

[JWing]

More progress in west Anbar campaign while Shirqat and Hawija attacked as well. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/ana-freed-in-anbar-whilte-shirqat-and.html).

[JWing]

Multi-front op in Anbar, Kirkuk and Salahaddin continues. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/shirqat-freed-clearing-in-anbar-hawija.html).

[JWing]

Iraqi forces clearing areas in Anbar and pushing into Hawija district in Kirkuk. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/another-pause-in-anbar-campaign-while.html).

[JWing]

What's next for Iraq's Kurdistan after its referendum yesterday? Read my thoughts (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/whats-next-for-kurdistan-after.html).

[SWJ Blog]

Islamic State Fighters Attack Iraqi Forces in Ramadi (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/islamic-state-fighters-attack-iraqi-forces-in-ramadi)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/islamic-state-fighters-attack-iraqi-forces-in-ramadi) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[JWing]

Violence picked up in Iraq 3rd wk of Sep. Here's the full report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/security-in-iraq-sep-15-21-2017.html).

[JWing]

Hawija op re-started. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/09/2nd-phase-of-hawija-operation-underway.html).

[JWing]

Hawija op coming to an end. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/two-thirds-of-hawija-area-freed-by.html).

[JWing]

728 dead 549 wounded in Iraq in September. Full break down of violence during the month. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/728-dead-and-549-wounded-in-september.html).

[davidbfpo]

A report (19 pgs) from Germany by a US defence academic @ NDU, Hassan Abbas, whose speciality is Pakistan and the region. Not yet read, but these Iraqi non-state forces rarely get extensive coverage.

The long title: 'The Myth and Reality of Iraq’s al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces):A Way Forward'.

The paper aims to:
The policy paper focuses on three primary issues: a) the prevailing status and workings of the Hashd forces; b) relevance of local and regional politics to the security dynamics of Iraq; and c) policy recommendations for the Iraqi government and its allies on how to think about the future of the Hashd and secure Iraq better. For this purpose, a range of questions are framed for analytical purposes dealing with the strength and weaknesses of the Hashd forces, their local and regional sponsors, their capabilities and activities on the ground including allegations of human rights violations, concerns of Sunni Iraqis with regard to sectariandimensions of this phenomenon and last but not the least as regards the agenda and planning of the Iraqi government for security sector reform.
Link:http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/amman/13689.pdf

[JWing]

Hawija op is entering final phase. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/center-of-hawija-taken-as-operation.html).

[JWing]

Hawija town liberated op almost over in southern Kirkuk. Link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/town-of-hawija-liberated-from-islamic.html).

[davidbfpo]

A short article recommended via a "lurker" via a Dutch CT site that circulated it and the link is to the original publisher. The author is Craig Whiteside and his bio in part states:
Dr. Craig Whiteside is an Associate Fellow at ICCT and an Associate Professor for the Naval War College Monterey and teaches at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is a senior associate with the Center on Irregular Warfare and Armed Groups at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island and lectures at the U.S. Air Force Special Operations School.
Link:https://www.iraqincontext.com/single-post/2017/09/26/Political-Primacy-Strategic-Risks-and-ISIL-after-the-Caliphate

[JWing]

Craig writes some of the best stuff on Iraqi security and IS.

[JWing]

Security report for 1st week of October in Iraq. 2nd lowest number of incidents and lowest casualty figures recorded in 2017. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/security-in-iraq-oct-1-7-2017.html).

[JWing]

Hawija operation is done, Iraqi forces heading back to finish off West Anbar. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/iraqi-forces-finish-hawija-now-on-to.html).

[JWing]

Gun battle between Iraqi forces and Peshmerga almost broke out in Kirkuk as Baghdad and Irbil continue to escalate things after the Kurdish referendum. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/escalation-in-iraq-continues-after-krg.html).

[JWing]

My early take (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/fighting-breaks-out-between-federal.html) on the fighting that broke out between federal forces and Peshmerga in Kirkuk and Salahaddin.

[CrowBat]

Let me recapitulate to see if I've got everything right: well before it's ever got as far as to finish the Daesh in Iraq, the Iraqi government (read: IRGC) turned against Kurds in northern Iraq....and thus delivered a coup de grace upon 15 years of failed US 'foreign policy' in that country.

And the 'most effective fighters against the Daesh' - turned on their heels and fled, as soon as they were not supported by US and allied air power...

Oh man, what a surprise. :rolleyes:

[davidbfpo]

Let me recapitulate to see if I've got everything right: well before it's ever got as far as to finish the Daesh in Iraq, the Iraqi government (read: IRGC) turned against Kurds in northern Iraq....and thus delivered a coup de grace upon 15 years of failed US 'foreign policy' in that country.

And the 'most effective fighters against the Daesh' - turned on their heels and fled, as soon as they were not supported by US and allied air power...

Oh man, what a surprise. :rolleyes:

Not that the Kurds have not found themselves in this position before. Long ago (probably 1974-1975) it was the withdrawal of Imperial Iranian artillery support for their conflict with the Iraqis that led to their defeat.

From this armchair and with limited reading could the Iraqi use of the CTS (a multi-ethnic formation historically) have helped limit the willingness to fight? Plus the use of the Federal Police.

Whatever the Kurd's claim to Kirkuk wasn't there always doubt that the Peshmerga would fight outside it's traditional mountainous area?

[JWing]

Kurds split politically led to collapse in Kirkuk. They could've fought but would've lost to govt forces.

[JWing]

Political ramifications of what happened in Kirkuk. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/kirkuk-aftermath-pm-abadi-and-puk.html).

[Azor]

Via Twitter: https://twitter.com/Samueltadros/status/920372827647303680

A few thoughts on developments in Kurdistan this week:



1. Collapse of Peshmerga took many by surprise. It shouldnt. Yes Kurds claim Kirkuk as their Jerusalem
But Kirkuk and other disputed territories remain deeply divided and contested among various ethnic and religious groups
It matters if you are fighting to defend your home or not. It's the same story as with the “Iraqi army” defending Mosul in 2014
Simply put: tribal troops don’t fight well outside their tribal areas, which brings me to the second point




2. The performance of the Peshmerga & Kurds in general since 03 has blinded many to the weakness of modernity & strength of tribal identity
Same blindness is evident when scholars approach Egypt. Blinded by the superficial modernity, they think Egypt is different from region.
They assume it is a modern state and that sub-national identities don't matter dismissing tribal and family frameworks
I am happy to repeat this a million times until it gets through. The region, all of it, is just Tribes with Flags.
In Kurds case, they arent even one tribe. Not disputing Kurdish nationalism. If someone identifies as a Kurd, who am I to tell him otherwise
But Kurdistan is a deeply divided society even beyond KDP/PUK divide. You can’t build a state with 10 different militias.
Just as intra Arab fights were more powerful than fight with Israel, intra Kurdish fights more important than Kurd vs. Arab




3. People have assumed that the Kurds have learned from history. They have. They built a better place than rest of Iraq after 2003
There was some attempt at nation building, investment in education, but internal divides that plagued Kurdish history still same.
It's easy to dismiss this as x betrayed y, or cast blame on one of the militia leaders, but this is beyond individual choices




4. Kurds & especially KDP have miserably failed to read DC. It's remarkable how this happened despite contacts with official & unofficial DC
Yes, many in the US appreciate the role Kurds have played, but that is not a policy, its feelings.
The US is committed by its very nature to existing states in the region. It's a long discussion why this is the case, but its not surprising




5. The time to get a deal was in 2014 when the US was most desperate. Assuming that the US will appreciate anti ISIS role is meaningless
I am reminded of a story about Sadat expecting Kissinger to reward him for kicking out Soviet advisers.
Kissinger's reaction was why should I reward him for something he did for free. Had he offered it before he would have gotten a deal.




6. Kurdish actions in the disputed territories hardly encouraged non-Kurds to throw their lot with them
attempts to control Christian and Yazidi villages, appoint new mayors and leaders reminded everyone of historical examples




7. The "Iraqi government" may think it has won, and it certainly did this round, but the sight of Kurds fleeing tells you all you need
The idea of an Iraq was never a serious one & nothing that happened this week strengthens that idea




8. Assyrians that I know are divided. Half are cheering & half crying. I don't blame them. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
But Assyrians thinking Shia militias are their savior will get bugged by reality soon, just as those who thought Kurdish militias were
In both cases, the small minorities have made same mistake as Kurds: failed to cut a deal when the time was right & expect to be rewarded

[JWing]

Kurds have basically fallen back to their pre-ISIS 2014 borders. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/kurds-fall-back-to-2014-borders.html).

[Azor]

Kurds have basically fallen back to their pre-ISIS 2014 borders. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/kurds-fall-back-to-2014-borders.html).

Yes, JWing, I was going to ask that. Is it possible that the Iraqi Security Forces will stop at the pre-2014 lines of control, which placed Kirkuk squarely in federal territory?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan#/media/File:Disputed_areas_in_Iraq.svg

[JWing]

They just tried to move up to the 2003 border around Irbil leading to heavy fighting with Peshmerga today.

[JWing]

Iraq continues to witnesses lowest violence levels in years. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/security-in-iraq-oct-8-14-2017.html).

[JWing]

Article on fighting along Kirkuk-Irbil border between Iraqi forces and Peshmerga http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/iraq-army-seizes-town-erbil-fierce-clashes-171020101628079.html

[Bill Moore]

First off we need to stop closing these threads, the history of these issues as they evolve are important. Kirkuk was a flash point in 2003 when we first went in, and has remained a flashpoint. The Kurds waited until they thought they had a position of advantage to claim it as sovereign ground. I have mixed feelings on the issue, I know Turkey (a NATO ally sort of), Iran, Syria, and Iraq are all opposed to an independent Kurdistan, and Kirkuk is essential to an independent Kurdistan's economic viability. However, with opposition on all sides to a landlocked country, how can they hope to survive if over flight into and out of is denied, and land lines of communication are closely monitored and controlled?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-strategy-sees-raqa-fall-but-leaves-kurds-in-lurch-9319720

US strategy sees Raqa fall but leaves Kurds in lurch



The power shift shows that, while US leadership has kept a coalition together long enough to defeat the militants, the region's political future is far from secure.

And experts warn that Washington's bitter foe Iran is poised to take advantage while US friends like the Iraqi Kurds retreat under pressure from Baghdad and Ankara.

Much like the other results of our war with Iraq, there is nothing unfolding now that was not predicted by regional experts. The only surprise is it took this long to happen. While many of us wish the Kurds the best, those who know the Kurds also know they're divided, and a number of outside actors, Iran being one of them, will leverage these tensions to pursue their ends.

[davidbfpo]

From the NYT series of graphics on the rise and fall of ISIS, a map showing the position October 2015 to October 2017.

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2017/07/18/isis-cities-control/3ea101c72b75c1548c96a63fe4db4d6e670a0025/control-2015-2017-460.png
There are other graphics. Link:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/22/world/middleeast/isis-the-islamic-state-from-insurgency-to-rogue-state-and-back.html?

From the BBC a map showing who has what; from IHS Conflict Monitor:https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/B5F0/production/_98367564_iraq_syria_control_18_10_2017_640_16x9_m ap-nc.png
Link (part of a wider article):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-41679377

[JWing]

Just put together this collaborative piece on the Kirkuk crisis. Here's a link to the piece (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/seven-expert-opinions-on-kirkuk-crisis.html).

[davidbfpo]

A different commentary via Open Democracy, two authors one an academic and the other a US Army officer - both @ Queens University Belfast.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/beverley-milton-edwards-alexander-brammer/iraq-security-mosul-coalition-US-PMF? (https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/beverley-milton-edwards-alexander-brammer/iraq-security-mosul-coalition-US-PMF?utm_source=Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=107187312a-DAILY_NEWSLETTER_MAILCHIMP&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_717bc5d86d-107187312a-407365113)

[JWing]

Security report for 3rd wk of Oct in Iraq. Still witnessing record lows in violence. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/security-in-iraq-oct-15-21-2017.html).

[Bill Moore]

This article is relevant to the discussion.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/areas-freed-from-islamic-state-will-test-us-policy-on-limiting-overseas-role

Areas Freed From Islamic State Will Test U.S. Policy On Limiting Overseas Role


Losing the Syrian Kurds as allies may be inevitable: Supremely pragmatic, they have never completely cut ties with Assad and Russia.

“The Americans were useful to them, but they were not in dreamland, thinking that the Americans were ever anything more than occasional, useful partners,” said Paul Salem, senior vice president for analysis and research at the Middle East Institute.

[JWing]

PM Abadi has upped the anti vs the Kurds and is moving govt forces into Dohuk to seize control of the Kurds pipeline to Turkey. Here's link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/baghdad-ups-ante-attempting-to-seize.html).

[JWing]

Kurdish Pres. Barzani said he would eventually step down from office which led his followers to go on a rampage in 3 cities in Kurdistan including invading KRG parliament building. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/10/barzanis-followers-respond-with.html).

[SWJ Blog]

What Comes After Raqqa? (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/what-comes-after-raqqa)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/what-comes-after-raqqa) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[JWing]

Security report for Iraq in the 4th week of Oct. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/security-in-iraq-oct-22-28-2017.html).

[JWing]

Talks between Baghdad and Irbil over borders has broken down. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/talks-between-baghdad-and-irbil.html).

[JWing]

Security report for Oct 2017 in Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/1093-killed-721-wounded-in-iraq-in.html).

[JWing]

Qaim freed in WAnbar. Almost all Iraqi territory now liberated from Islamic State. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/last-stage-in-freeing-iraq-underway-as.html).

[JWing]

Great history on Kurdish struggle in Iraq and how it consistently misread western intentions by Joost Hiltermann in the Atlantic. Here's a link (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/history-of-the-kurds/544316/?utm_source=atltw).

[JWing]

My analysis of how violence declined in Iraq starting in 2014 surprisingly. Here's a link to the article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/how-violence-declined-in-iraq-2014-2017.html).

[JWing]

Turkmen went on a rampage through Tuz Kharmatu and now trying to partially deny it. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/turkmen-try-to-blame-kurds-for.html).

[JWing]

Security report for 1st week of Nov in Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/security-in-iraq-nov-1-7-2017.html).

[JWing]

Calculated the casualties from the Mosul campaign. Likely over 100,000. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/human-cost-of-mosul-campaign.html).

[AdamG]

The BBC has uncovered details of a secret deal that let hundreds of IS fighters and their families escape from Raqqa, under the gaze of the US and British-led coalition and Kurdish-led forces who control the city.

A convoy included some of IS’s most notorious members and – despite reassurances – dozens of foreign fighters. Some of those have spread out across Syria, even making it as far as Turkey.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/raqqas_dirty_secret

[SWJ Blog]

Militant Convoy That Left Raqqa Contradicts America’s New Counter-IS Strategy (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/militant-convoy-that-left-raqqa-contradicts-america%E2%80%99s-new-counter-is-strategy)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/militant-convoy-that-left-raqqa-contradicts-america%E2%80%99s-new-counter-is-strategy) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[JWing]

Security report for 2nd wk of Nov in Iraq. Continues to witness lowest level of attacks since 2003. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/security-in-iraq-nov-8-14-2017.html).

[JWing]

Last town held by the Islamic State in Iraq, Rawa, freed. Huge event. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/rawa-last-iraqi-territory-liberated.html).

[JWing]

Updated the casualties caused by the Battle for Mosul. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/battle-of-mosul-casualties-updated.html).

[JWing]

Security report for 3rd week of Nov in Iraq. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/security-in-iraq-nov-15-21-2017.html).

[JWing]

Continued reports of pro-Iran Hashd units crossing over from Ninewa and Anbar into Syria to help Assad regime. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/despite-denials-pro-iran-hashd-factions.html).

[JWing]

Security report for Iraq for week of Nov 22-28, 2017. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/11/security-in-iraq-nov-22-28-2017.html).

[JWing]

Many pro-Iran Hashd factions led by Badr talking about forming list for 2018 Iraqi elections. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/hashd-preparing-to-participate-in-iraqs.html).

[JWing]

Review of security in Iraq in Nov 2017. Iraq continues to see lowest violence levels since 2003. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/1282-dead-and-425-wounded-in-iraq.html).

[JWing]

Two recent reports. 1st weekly security review (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/security-in-iraq-dec-1-7-2017.html)of 1st wk of Dec in Iraq. 2nd a quick overview (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/security-trends-in-iraq-2017.html) of security in Iraq in 2017.

[JWing]

Iraq didn't finish its last major operation against the Islamic State before it announced victory. Here's a link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/iraqs-unfinished-jazeera-operation.html).

[JWing]

New insurgent group operating in Iraq. Contradictory stories about who they are. Here's a report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/kurds-islamic-state-who-are-new.html).

[JWing]

Weekly security report for Iraq, 2nd wk of Dec. Here's a link. (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/security-in-iraq-dec-8-14-2017.html)

[davidbfpo]

From ICSR @ Kings College a short commentary on the PMU militia scene, who may form an electoral block.
Link:http://mailchi.mp/icsr/icsr-insight-ruling-with-hashd?e=dd94a5c57b

[JWing]

Weekly security report for Iraq Dec 15-21. Link (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/security-in-iraq-dec-15-21-2017.html).

[JWing]

IS already rebuilding and switched to insurgency. Can Iraqi forces use intelligence and policing to stop them? Here's a link to article (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/test-of-wills-islamic-state-rebuilding.html).

[JWing]

New short report by RAND on threat of an IS revival. They've done it before and already working to rebuild. Here's a link (https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/12/isis-could-rise-again.html).

[JWing]

Security report (http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/12/security-in-iraq-dec-22-28-2017.html) for 3rd week of Dec in Iraq.