Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

Iran strongly condemns the use of chemical weapons in #Syria by whichever side. Assad's support system is slowly diminishing

[OUTLAW 09]

.@nikkihaley to #UNSC: The US will no longer wait for #Assad to use chemical weapons w/out consequences: "Those days are over."

She continued to state....we have not finished taking action if necessary.....

She would not have said this without WH clearance...

Worth remembering that @adamentous reported in 2015 that the US believed Syria retained some CW stockpiles.

[OUTLAW 09]

The Kremlin was asked whether it's true that the Russian anti-missile systems were switched off for the attack: "No comment"

[OUTLAW 09]

War of words is really heating up now.....


"We can't clearly say here in this forum what kind of participation Russians might have had" in chem attack, US official says - @AFP

"We suspect that they (Syrian govt) had help," US official tells reporters on Tuesday's suspected chemical attack - via @AFP

Drone belonging to either Russia or Syria seen over site of chemical weapons attack in Syria: US military officials
http://sabahdai.ly/Tm3tUE

US officials: Shayrat base was among the sites that Russians were supposed to remove CW back in 2013

US officials on Syria:
• Not sure if there was CW in the base
• No evidence Syrians/Russians were evacuated
• Comm with RU mil since then

US officials on Syria attack
• 20 aircraft destroyed
• No Russian casualties. Russian planes not harmed
• Notified RU 4 hr beforehand

Media drumbeat is on.....
JUST IN: Pentagon is investigating possible Russian involvement in Syrian chemical attack
http://cnn.it/2nLQro4

[OUTLAW 09]

US officials: We believe main driver behind Assad regime's Chemical attack was Syrian opposition forces threatening regime-held Hama base

US officials: Assad regime didn't want to lose Hama base b/c it has devoted significant resources in that base

Sr mil official says before April 4 chemical weapons attack, regime at risk of losing Hama Airfield. Attack was "battlefield desperation."

[OUTLAW 09]

59 (Tomahawk) ways to kill a #Russian reset. My latest on the US #SyriaStrikes, and the view from Moscow:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/07/59-ways-to-kill-a-russian-reset/#

[OUTLAW 09]

NOW comes the standard Russian threat of war as they standard way of attempting to divert the US from doing anything

Russian PM Medvedev: U.S. to fight Assad "on verge of military clash with Russia"
https://www.unian.info/world/1866276-russian-pm-medvedev-us-to-fight-assad-on-verge-of-military-clash-with-russia.html#

[Azor]

Any concrete reports on Syrian casualties?

Any idea of how many SyAAF aircraft were destroyed?

Were any targets other than this airbase hit? Seems like overkill...

WHERE IS CROWBAT?

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: Jets carry out strikes from Syria base hit by US: monitor - via @AFP

Hama: #HTS has captured the #Maardas Battalion today.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.249106&lon=36.748710&z=16&m=b#

Interesting, if true: Trump strategist Steve Bannon argued against the U.S. strike on the Syrian regime; sidelined?
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/04/trumps-syria-strike-is-sign-of-bannons-waning-influence.html#

Hama: Rebels have killed #Assad Major Adnan Ahmed Mahfoud south of #Maardas today.

[Azor]

https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/trumps-attack-on-syria-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/

By Ryan Evans, Editor-in-Chief

Selected Excerpts:



The Good

...one could reasonably argue that Trump’s cruise missile strike re-establishes deterrence with Assad as far as the narrow but important issue of chemical weapons use is concerned. However, I worry that an attack on just a single air base could be seen by the Assad regime as nothing more than symbolic and have the opposite intended effect. What if Assad does it again?

Then he is replaced with a more suitable Alawi leader.



The Bad

...Even if no Russians were hurt in this attack and if Moscow declines to counter-escalate in response, you can be sure there will be a Russian reprisal elsewhere eventually. Perhaps that is an acceptable cost to this White House, perhaps not.

...the cruise missile strike cannot be seen in isolation...U.S. involvement has escalated under Trump to include a deployment of U.S. Marine artillery and U.S. Army Rangers. Now we have these strikes. This is a dangerous trend-line.

So? The campaign against Daesh has been ongoing since 2014, and has always involved a ground component, whether by way of special forces or regular units.



The Ugly

...To be direct, it scares me how quickly and casually Trump changed a longstanding policy preference on a major issue — especially one that involves death and destruction — and for reasons that are, to put it lightly, unclear. I worry what that portends for decisions on war and peace over the next four or eight years.

To my mind, this smacks of the national security establishment - including many contributors to WOTR - which had sided with Hillary Clinton, being wrong-footed by Trump.

Trump's cojones are on clear display as Obama didn't have to worry about de-confliction with the Russians in 2013, and did his best to find reasons not to respond. Given that Obama had no problem turning Libya into a failed state and migrant lily-pad, while driving a nail into the coffin of nuclear non-proliferation, what were 50-60 Tomahawks in comparison?

Now Hillary's trying to take credit for the airstrike, even though her campaign suggested a no-fly zone, which was different altogether...

I'd rather Trump demonstrate his resolve in Syria, than be forced to do so later in Latvia, the Arctic, the Senkakus, the Philippines, at the DMZ or in the Strait of Hormuz.

[OUTLAW 09]

Less than 24 hrs after U.S. airstrikes, Assad's forces are already bombing the same area that was gassed on Tuesday
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/04/07/assad-taunting-trump-mounts-new-attacks-on-the-town-he-gassed.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: #Assad/#Russia|n warplanes bombing civilians in Northern #Hama with white phosphorus tonight.

Al-Lataminah village in #Hama hit hard.....

What Is Bashar al-Assad Thinking?
https://nyti.ms/2ob27Ev

[OUTLAW 09]

Amazing the number of US Congressmen and women who are openly proAssad and proPutin and who the same propaganda arguments that Russian controlled media uses...


'Yes, I'm skeptical': Congresswoman says no need to point fingers in Syria's chemical attack
http://read.bi/2nnLk2l

US "counterproductive regime change war" is cause of Syria & refugee crisis not Assad–Gabbard, using this phrase ~15x in this one interview

Her comments would led one to believe it was CIA driven false flag attack.....exactly what first was being pushed in Moscow media....

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting set of photos concerning storage containers for sarin.....

Should be clear it seems containers spotted seem to be of style used for binary storage, unclear if left from OPCW or rusted old container.

Also consider the damage around area and burning these storage seem un-burnt unlike the objects and dont seem to have compression damage.

Further, that looks like a scrape, a dent, and a rip.

This is easy to settle. The @OPCW can simply tell us if they demilitarized any such containers in this manner at this location.

You'll note the scorch marks surrounding more than one of those holes.

[OUTLAW 09]

Homs: Photo of he killed #Assad Brigadier General and Air Defence commander of the #Shayrat Airbase. He was killed by a #US cruise missile.

[OUTLAW 09]

@nancyayoussef on US suspicions that a Russian jet hit the hospital treating victims of the chemical attack
https://www.buzzfeed.com/nancyyoussef/a-russian-drone-may-have-turned-off-its-camera-right-before?utm_term=.vxEJr72kJ#.nvJdk698d#


Why are all American Nazis suddenly seething in support of Assad??


US Nazi Party declaring Syria a proChristain nation state kid of overlooks the 89% of the population being Muslim in some form....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is deploying Dmitry Medvedev to rage about the Syria strike which is how you know they’re not really that mad.

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW...perfect example of just how fast this world of ours is turning right now.....

Who would have thought the Iraqi Shia Mullah Sadr would be calling for the removal of an Alawite aligned with Iran....

So in the middle of the Syrian "war" suddenly a "political" voice stands up and makes a far reaching statement....so is the sophistication of war driving the sophistication of politics...OR in this case vice versa?

Sadr issues a statement calling on Assad to resign.
via @alsumariatv
http://www.alsumaria.tv/news/200223/alsumaria-news/ar#

Moqtada al-Sadr calls on all military forces (Russia and the armed factions) to withdraw from #syria

[OUTLAW 09]

US gave #Russia 60-90 mins warning. "Conversation was described as lengthy, Russians did much of the talking"
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/world/middleeast/missile-strike-syria-russia.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0&referer=https://t.co/0EN6L792Tr#

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting set of photos concerning storage containers for sarin.....

Should be clear it seems containers spotted seem to be of style used for binary storage, unclear if left from OPCW or rusted old container.

Also consider the damage around area and burning these storage seem un-burnt unlike the objects and dont seem to have compression damage.

Further, that looks like a scrape, a dent, and a rip.

This is easy to settle. The @OPCW can simply tell us if they demilitarized any such containers in this manner at this location.

You'll note the scorch marks surrounding more than one of those holes.

These ones carry BKFs loaded with P's (hence БКФ-П). No idea what a P is. I do know what R-55 is, though - Soman, a nerve gas.

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is @PartisanGirl, yet another Assad fanatic who supports chemical attacks, accusing @SyriaCivilDef of killing children to frame Assad.

Last night, Russia bombed the village of Heesh, killing 9 civilians, including 6 children. #Idlib

[OUTLAW 09]

Any concrete reports on Syrian casualties?

Any idea of how many SyAAF aircraft were destroyed?

Were any targets other than this airbase hit? Seems like overkill...

WHERE IS CROWBAT?

Estimated 20 aircraft were hit but actual number not confirmed by any photos as of yet.....some photos show destruction but one cannot count 20 aircraft when viewing just those photos....

Check the map I posted previously on strike points....missile payloads were small thus a number hit the same targets....

Satellite analysis by unit of Israel Aerospace Industries shows 58 of 59 US
missiles hit target, damage extensive although payloads small

What is interesting is that this missile generation can program the warhead for virtually anything from cluster strikes to bunker busting....one penetrated the top of a protected aircraft hanger..straight through 3/4 ft of steel and concrete...

[OUTLAW 09]

Bouthaina Shaaban, Assad's PR queen to the BBC: "Syria is attacked because we're against the Israeli occupation of Palestine". Cool story.

[CrowBat]

Any concrete reports on Syrian casualties?

Any idea of how many SyAAF aircraft were destroyed?

Were any targets other than this airbase hit? Seems like overkill...

WHERE IS CROWBAT?Just 'busy elsewhere' - and also couldn't log in yesterday: guess, the SCW's server was overburdened. :P

Anyway...a combination of sat intel (http://www.imagesatintl.com/us-strike-syria/) (note: another overburdened server), and video evidence (such like this Russan TV report (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGvIZTosVTQ), show that 58 out of 59 TLAMs fired have found their marks.

They were launched from a position off Crete, and went 'feet dry' in Tartous area - where one crashed (a photo of the warhead found in a village outside Tartous appeared on the Assadist social media yesterday, but I'm away from my PC and can't post it right now). This in turn meas: the Russians not only got a warning from Washington, but also failed to do anything at all against the incoming TLAM strike, although all he TLAMs passed within 100 kilometres of their S-400 site at Hmemmem AB.

...with result that the ammo and fuel depots, plus about 15 hardened aircraft shelters (most of them containing MiG-23MLDs of No. 675 Squadron and Su-22s of No. 677 Squadron, were hit and destroyed.

Now, arguably: most of ammo depots were empty, anyway. Assadists run their pre-war stocks of ammo dry already two years ago. Their safety standards are so poor, they're pilling bombs and other ammo around HASes, in the open, and in total chaos.

But, whatever was inside one of the ammo depots was burned too (gauging by smoke marks on one of seven ammo depots that was hit).

So, the Keystone Cops in Moscow's (Russian MOD) claim that 'only' 23 TLAMs reached Shayrat is a lie.

Similarly, even the FP's report here (https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/07/assad-shrugs-off-trumps-strike-uses-just-hit-airbase-to-bomb-rebels/) is hysterical BS: it's based on the video released by a Hezbollah-fan here (https://twitter.com/MmaGreen/status/850389109742948352) - which is actually showing a Su-22 that took off from Dmeyr AB, around 11.00hrs yesterday, and not from Shayrat.

Namely, that one was the only Su-22-sortie recorded over all of Syria yesterday.

Conclusions
The SyAAF received a severe blow, which destroyed most of MiG-23s of No. 675 Squadron (at least 6), and something like half the Su-22s of No. 677 Squadron (another 6, probably more). Shayrat is left with - at most - 5 operational Su-22s, and needs proper cleaning before any of these can take-off again.

Namely, as should be well-known (if not outright obvious), the Su-22's intake is positioned relatively close to the ground, on the front of the aircraft. Whenever the engine is powered up, the intake sucks the air - and all the lose items (up to the size of humans) - for about 30 metres in front of the aircraft. Indeed, the entire Su-7/17/20/22 family is renowned for being sensible to FOD ('foreign object damage') - dirt, rocks, litter etc. sucked into the intake (and thus the engine) - and thus can only operate from 'tidy' runways.

The 136th Air Defence Regiment (the unit responsible for air defence of Shayrat) received a severe blow too, and lost at least 9 of its soliders (including its CO) KIA.

The Russians either proved unable or unwilling to react to a horde of TLAMs passing by within less than 100km of their famed S-400 site at Hmemmem AB.

[OUTLAW 09]

You have got to hand it to the KKK's support for Assad these days.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Iran's Rouhani wants chemical attack in Syria investigated
http://reut.rs/2nVktqy

[CrowBat]

An interesting set of photos concerning storage containers for sarin....Well, such containers are used for storing and transporting plenty of things - including CW, but not only them. Bomblets for CBUs - like KMGU-1 containers, sighted on several photos taken at Shayrat AB yesterday - are stored in such containers too.

Iranians are using such containers a lot, and they have paid for most of ammo sold to Assadists the last two years.

Of course, some of Ammo was sold or donated by Russia directly.

Therefore, it's hard to say what was inside.

But, it's still a big screw-up for Sputnik to publish such photos, then yes: presence of such containers at Shayrat AB could easily be linked to the use of CWs by aircraft based there. :D

Well...nobody said the Russians are super-clever in regards of their PR-warfare.

[CrowBat]

This is just getting 'better and better'...

Russian personnel at airbase before gas attack (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/07/us-syria-response-donald-trump-assad-pentagon-live?page=with:block-58e74698e4b05776df18b68c#block-58e74698e4b05776df18b68c)

Sources have told the Guardian that US intelligence officials believe Russian personnel were at al-Shayrat airbase when sarin was loaded on to a Syrian jet. They have not established whether the Russians knew it was happening.

The base covers an area of more than 8 sq km and has two runways and dozens of buildings, silos and storage facilities.

Syrian opposition figures claim to have identified the pilot allegedly responsible for bombing Khan Sheikhun at about 6.30am on 4 April. Five hours later, close to 11.30am, a hospital treating victims from the attack was hit by a conventional bomb, dropped from a jet.

The sources say that on both occasions, a Russian Sukhoi was monitored by ground radar and aerial reconnaissance flying over the town. Flashes were picked up on the ground, indicating that ordnance had been dropped.

The air space over northern Syria is monitored heavily by Turkey, the US and Russia, and all three have precise knowledge of whose jets are in the air and where they fly.
So...we've got the Russian personnel there (at Shayrat), then the Russian containers used for storage and transport of CBU-contents AND chemical weapons there, we've got Assadist deploying chemical weapons from there...

....uyuyuyuyuyu....

[OUTLAW 09]

This is just getting 'better and better'...

Russian personnel at airbase before gas attack (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/07/us-syria-response-donald-trump-assad-pentagon-live?page=with:block-58e74698e4b05776df18b68c#block-58e74698e4b05776df18b68c)

So...we've got the Russian personnel there (at Shayrat), then the Russian containers used for storage and transport of CBU-contents AND chemical weapons there, we've got Assadist deploying chemical weapons from there...

....uyuyuyuyuyu....

CrowBat ...the most telling is the short comment by the US yesterday that a Russian drone was directly over the strike area and videoing...THEN suddenly shut off the video feed just as the chemical strike went in....

Russian doctrine for their UAVs based on eastern Ukraine experience...THEY NEVER turn the video feed off....

The Russian GRU definitely knew what was going to happen....to argue otherwise is to admit just how poorly the Russian intel is...based on eastern Ukraine...granted they sometimes are not that well informed BUT informed they are.....

The swiftness of Russian/Assad air strikes into the chemical strike zone and hospital immediately after the news of the chemical strike became known is a sure fire indicator that they wanted to destroy any evidence that remained in the area...

[OUTLAW 09]

Also last night, the #Russian regime flew incendiary bomb attacks on towns in #Syria.
Here: Al-Lataminah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ix53dtUGpd0#

Lataminah is only 12 kilometers away from #Khan_Shaykhun where the #Assad regime gas massacre took place in Tuesday.

Another three civilians were killed in a #Russian airstrike on Darat Izza near #Aleppo this morning.

Syria yesterday
Nonstop #terror by the #Assad regime and its allies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=he5EXzl0pIg#…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUquum_T5vw#…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u3gSqePQB4&t=0s#…

[OUTLAW 09]

This is just getting 'better and better'...

Russian personnel at airbase before gas attack (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/07/us-syria-response-donald-trump-assad-pentagon-live?page=with:block-58e74698e4b05776df18b68c#block-58e74698e4b05776df18b68c)

So...we've got the Russian personnel there (at Shayrat), then the Russian containers used for storage and transport of CBU-contents AND chemical weapons there, we've got Assadist deploying chemical weapons from there...

....uyuyuyuyuyu....

Russia's photos from #Syria's #Shayrat airbase:

6x КМГУ dispensers

[OUTLAW 09]

Shayrat Airbase: looks like runway/tarmac also damaged in several points after #US Tomahawks.

#Shayrat Airbase: 44 targets hit by #US Tomahawks:
- 15 Aircraft Shelters
- 10 Ammo depots
- 7 Fuel depots
- 7 Workshops
- 5 AA defenses

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat....anything to these numbers?

Syria is thought to have approx. 200 operational fixed wing aircraft.
U.S. destroyed 20 last night.
- possible 10% jet loss is no small thing.


Trump was able to do in 2 days what #Obama could not do in 6yrs”
- @SyrianHNC leader Riyad Hijab says in DC:
http://wapo.st/2oN1KRF?tid=ss_tw#…

[OUTLAW 09]

- "A Practical Guide for Avoiding Fallacies on #Syria"
('Got a better idea’: exactly!)
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/04/practical-guide-syria-fallacies/522303/?utm_source=twb#…

U.S.-vetted #FSA 13th Division leader @alferqa13 alive & well after failed #HTS assassination attempt in #Idlib:

English version of today’s FSA statement welcoming what is seen a “turning point in the fight against impunity” in #Syria:

[OUTLAW 09]

CIT (en) @CITeam_en
.@SputnikInt @bm27_uragan Photos from Syrian Shayrat airforce base show BKF containers for AO-2,5RT cluster submunitions, not chemical weapons.

[OUTLAW 09]

CIT (en) @CITeam_en
US missile fragments seen in Anna News video from Shayrat airbase
https://youtu.be/LfWcXkgyzio

[OUTLAW 09]

Trump's newest and finest fighting forces arrived first in Iraq and then onto to join Turkey and FSA........

Reinforcements from the 101st Fighting Ivies have arrived.

We could have used them in 2005/2006....BUT WAIT..they are wearing exactly what the DoS FSO worn when he was assigned to Diyala at FOB warhorse.....

[OUTLAW 09]

APPEARS Putin is sending more of his missile naval ships to Syria....interesting that none of them can fire a broadside of 32 cruise missiles in one go from a single ship....

Cannot believe he wants to out naval the US Navy??

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express......

Ship of Interest

Ship of Interest: From #Latakia #Syria, Sierra Leone flag bulk carrier Uni-Brothers transits BlackSea-bound Bosphorus en route Oktyabrsk

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Naval Express....

From 6 APR

New & powerful: Armed with Kalibr SS-N-27 missiles, #ВМФ #ЧФ frigate Admiral Grigorovich transits Bosphorus en route to Eastern Med #Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

Severe #AssadPutin air force attacks on #Idlib, #Hama, #RifDimashq & #Daraa province right now.
#Putin uses Su-25, #Assad Mi-24.

ALSO reports of 13 civilians killed in a #US drone strike on the #ISIS-held front town #Hunaydah 30 km S-W of #Raqqa city.

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Al-Manshiyah district heating up again as Al-Bunian Al-Marsous op. room launched new operations. Several pro-Assad captured.

Daraa: Al-Bunian Al-Marsous op. room announced death of 15 pro-Assad in prev. clashes., incl. a Lt Colonel, a Captain and 8 from #Hezbollah

Syria Rebels advance in south western neigborhood of #Daraa city

[OUTLAW 09]

Khan Sheikhoun resident says fresh bombing on town: "It is like Assad is trying to kill everyone that survived the chemical attack" #Syria

Hama: 3 Afghan fighters of the #Iran|ian Liwa Fatemiyoun militia who were killed by rebels in Northern #Hama.

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Rebels advancing in Al-Manshiyah District of #Daraa City. Pro-#Assad forces are surprisingly weak there.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.613641&lon=36.089551&z=16&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

I slowly understand why the #Kremlin is so angry at #Trump.
The #US destroyed a Pantsir S1, worth 13M$, in #Shayrat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfWcXkgyzio#

[CrowBat]

I slowly understand why the #Kremlin is so angry at #Trump.
The #US destroyed a Pantsir S1, worth 13M$, in #Shayrat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfWcXkgyzio#
Erm... sorry, nope: that truck was used by Syrian-operated, Iranian-made M-600 Fateh SSM (see photo below for an intact example).

That's the kind of stuff the White House and Saudis are babbling about being delivered to Houthis in Yemen - which is not the case: but, plenty of such weapons are supplied to Assadists and Hezbollah in Syria...

[OUTLAW 09]

4 SAA soldiers captured by HTS in Daraa
one from Tartus ,1 from Idlib ,1 from Yabrud\Qalamun ,and one from East Ghoutah


Bus explosion in #Syria's Homs kills one, injures 25
https://sptnkne.ws/ebyn#

[OUTLAW 09]

From Al-Masdar to Infowars: How a pro-Assad conspiracy theory got picked up by the US far-right
http://read.bi/2nrllHb

E. #Damascus: Faylaq Al-Rahman striking a Regime fortification with Omar cannon in #Jobar.

Pro-#Assad forces are losing in #Daraa City and #Hama, so #Assad & #Putin taking revenge and slaughtering innocent civilians again.

Daraa : FSA continue to advance in the city's #Manshiya neighborhood taking the Regime's Banayat, Sloum and Daragha checkpoints.

Idlib : Regime airstrike massacre in #Orem_al_Joz as warplanes kill 19 civilians and wound 20 others.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has destroyed 1 #Assad tank with #ATGM near the #DeirEzzor Airport today.

Daraa: Rebels have confirmed captured 5 #Assad checkpoints & barriers today:
- Labeen
- Syriatel
- Banayat
- Salloum
- Daghara

[OUTLAW 09]

RUSSIA drops chemical weapons (incendiary ammunition) on Syrian women and children NOW.
What you gonna do, @POTUS?!

Footage
Russian incendiary bomb attacks on villages in #Hama province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUnQIIdfXpE#

Injured and dying children after intense #AssadPutin air strikes on #Daraa city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tv7ykQ_RKRc#

Hama: #Russia|n warplanes bombing civilians in Northern #Hama with thermite bombs this evening.

Daraa : Regime helicopters have dropped 36 barrel bombs on the liberated neighborhoods of the city so far today.

US 'disappointed' by Russia's support for Syria's Assad
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2017/4/8/us-disappointed-by-russias-support-for-syrias-assad#

[OUTLAW 09]

UPDATE

BREAKING: 14 Syrian fighter jets destroyed in US military strike on Assad regime airbase

BREAKING: Pentagon official told CNN they have intel that Russian drone was flying over nearby Syrian hospital just before chemical attack

[OUTLAW 09]

Towns in #Hama and #Idlib provinces are burning hells now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjId9rCSUKM#

[OUTLAW 09]

N. #Hama: visual confirmation the incendiary bomb dropped by #RuAF over Al-Lataminah is the RBK-500 ZAB 2.5CM.

[OUTLAW 09]

UPDATE and #EVIDENCE
The criminal regimes of #Assad and #Putin perform large-scale incendiary bomb attacks now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJexqNoJ9bI#…

Wave of #AssadPutin #WhitePhosphorus attacks his towns around #KhanShaykhun.
#Lataminah hit shortly ago!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRxIre11vNk#…

WhitePhosphorus attacks by the #AssadPutin air force on towns in #Idlib province.
Ma'rhh al-Haramah here:

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian rebels in #Latakia don't even unload their BM-21 from the #Turkish "UHADAR" company low loader anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V4JH3Id0qs

Increasing the number to 91 killed in the #Assad regime gas attack.'

Reference the US congresswoman's proAssad support...
Assad has carried out out horrific mass atrocities for years and @TulsiGabbard is "skeptical." There's no excuse for this kind of ignorance.

al-Binyan al-Marsus Operations Room announce #Manshia District fully liberated & the Battle to continue #Daraa City

Artillery is pounding Hayyan, North Aleppo countryside
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/8-april-artillery-is-pounding-hayyan-north-aleppo-countryside#

S. #Idlib: more pictures of #RuAF incendiary attack on Tell As-Sayad in Khan Sheikhoun periphery tonight.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.398006&lon=36.619749&z=13&m#

[OUTLAW 09]

So Trump Attacked Assad. What Now? @Charles_Lister excellent analysis
http://politi.co/2nnH2YA#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Latest battle map for for #Daraa city south western neighborhoods

[OUTLAW 09]

Damascus: #Assad regime has honored Colonel Muhammad Yousef Hasouri, the pilot who gassed 100+ men, women and children in #Idlib Province.

[OUTLAW 09]

MASSACRE, #RUSSIA TERRORISTS AIRSTRIKES TARGETED KINDERGARDEN IN #alTAEBAH VILLAGE
#DARAA #SYRIA APRIL 8

[OUTLAW 09]

Leaked Document gives legal justifications for US government's airstrikes on Syria

https://www.justsecurity.org/39803/apparent-administration-justifications-legality-strikes-syria/#

[OUTLAW 09]

US dropped 26,172 bombs in 2016:
http://on.cfr.org/2jesIz9

How does 59 more suddenly demonstrate US "resolve," "credibility," + "leadership?"

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian rebels in #Latakia don't even unload their BM-21 from the #Turkish "UHADAR" company low loader anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V4JH3Id0qs

Increasing the number to 91 killed in the #Assad regime gas attack.'

Reference the US congresswoman's proAssad support...
Assad has carried out out horrific mass atrocities for years and @TulsiGabbard is "skeptical." There's no excuse for this kind of ignorance.

al-Binyan al-Marsus Operations Room announce #Manshia District fully liberated & the Battle to continue #Daraa City

Artillery is pounding Hayyan, North Aleppo countryside
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/8-april-artillery-is-pounding-hayyan-north-aleppo-countryside#

S. #Idlib: more pictures of #RuAF incendiary attack on Tell As-Sayad in Khan Sheikhoun periphery tonight.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.398006&lon=36.619749&z=13&m#

U.S. strikes destroyed Syrian means to deliver chemical weapons: admiral
http://reut.rs/2oTPZ95
BUT not incendiary cluster munitions....

[OUTLAW 09]

realDonaldTrump
Congratulations to our great military men and women for representing the United States, and the world, so well in the Syria attack.

Whatever, Don.

Firing 59 TLAMs, unopposed, isn't exactly D-Day. Or Peleliu. Or Inchon. Or even Grenada.

FYI: Lobbing high explosives around, in limited quantities, has never changed the course of any war, ever.

No matter what TV "experts" say.

[OUTLAW 09]

realDonaldTrump
Congratulations to our great military men and women for representing the United States, and the world, so well in the Syria attack.

Whatever, Don.

Firing 59 TLAMs, unopposed, isn't exactly D-Day. Or Peleliu. Or Inchon. Or even Grenada.

FYI: Lobbing high explosives around, in limited quantities, has never changed the course of any war, ever.

No matter what TV "experts" say.

US DoD blathers about Lessons Learned.

UK MoD speaks of Lessons Identified -- because they may not be learned.

[CrowBat]

U.S. strikes destroyed Syrian means to deliver chemical weapons: admiralWas he drunk when stating that?

...or just plain clueless?

100% of attacks with chlorine are flown by helicopters from Hama and as-Safira: the Khan Sheykhoun attack on 4 April was a rare occasion in which Su-22s were deployed instead.

[CrowBat]

realDonaldTrump
Congratulations to our great military men and women for representing the United States, and the world, so well in the Syria attack.

Whatever, Don.

Firing 59 TLAMs, unopposed, isn't exactly D-Day. Or Peleliu. Or Inchon. Or even Grenada.Surely not. 'But'... modern-day wars are not meant to be fought that way (except one is Assad or his IRGC pals).

Besides, these 59 TLAMs tidily marched just 100km south of the Russian S-400 SAM-site at Hmemmem - and not one was shot down (one did malfunction and crash, though).

[OUTLAW 09]

Pro-Trump super PAC @GreatAmericaPAC fundraising off missile strikes in Syria

Trump's own history w/this group is complicated: his campaign 1st disavowed it, then @EricTrump appeared at $raiser

Great America PAC also had significant problems during '16 keeping some donors' credit card, cell, email data secure

[CrowBat]

Damascus: #Assad regime has honored Colonel Muhammad Yousef Hasouri, the pilot who gassed 100+ men, women and children in #Idlib Province.
This is actually related to the video released by the Syrian TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaWzYO2fOkM

This was taken at Shayrat AB, yesterday (7 April 2017).

At about 1.40, a sequence starts taken inside the squadron ready room of No. 677 Squadron - the Su-22 equipped unit at Shayrat AB.

Hasouri can be seen for the first time at 2.11 min: the black-haired character seating in the centre of the room.

He is the CO of No. 677 Squadron - and the thug that led the air strike on Khan Sheykhoun, on 4 April 2017. He stands up and is cheered at 2.22, and Ayyoubi (Chief of Staff SAA) is then shaking his hand and kissing him, at 2.24.

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Massive airstrikes on #Daraa city today to stop rebel advance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozl-z-ogzog&feature=youtu.be#

Syria 18 people killed in Orm al-Jawz #Idlib by airstrikes today

[CrowBat]

BTW, here my write-up on developments of yesterday, including the USN's TLAM-strike on Shayrat (and its direct effects upon activity of the Assadist air force): Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 7 April, UPDATE (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-7-april-2017-update-e5c2c63a394f) (i.e. this is a 'mirror' of the write-up above).

[davidbfpo]

I wonder if we will see imagery of a living Colonel Muhammad Yousef Hasouri again after the attack on his AFB. Now if the drones got him perhaps his pilots will wonder could they be next.

[CrowBat]

I wonder if we will see imagery of a living Colonel Muhammad Yousef Hasouri again after the attack on his AFB. Now if the drones got him perhaps his pilots will wonder could they be next.
I strongly doubt the USA are going to do anything to him - ever.

This TLAM-strike was clearly 'against aircraft and the base', not against 'personnel'.

***

Finally there are some sane Russians that are now asking: After U.S. Strikes Syrian Air Base, Russians Ask: 'Where Were Our Vaunted Air Defense Systems?' (http://www.rferl.org/a/weher-was-the-s-300-s-400-missile-defense-systems/28417014.html)

In confirming the deployment of its S-300 and state-of-the art S-400 missile-defense systems in Syria, the Kremlin boasted six months (https://vz.ru/politics/2016/10/7/836801.html)] ago that it had secured the country's air bases from American cruise missiles.

But after a barrage of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles hit the Syrian government air base at Shayrat on April 7, where some Russian military personnel were stationed, consternated Russians took to social networks asking: "Where the hell were the vaunted S-400s?"

"Am I the only one who doesn’t understand why our S-400s…. didn’t shoot down the American rockets?” asked one Twitter user (https://twitter.com/agentleyla/status/850236857413550081).
...

[Azor]

Hello CrowBat. The Syria discussion hasn't been this lively since Aleppo...

In terms of accuracy and reliability, the 98%+ success rate should quiet some of the Tomahawk's detractors, although it will likely be eclipsed by the LRSO/LRASM family of systems over the next few years for high-end land-attack and anti-ship strikes.

I have several questions:


I saw several fixed-wing aircraft parked in the open at the base on the Russian UAV video. Are these non-operational? Does this indicate that more aircraft survived in the hardened shelters?

You said that the 136th Air Defense Regiment suffered a "severe blow", and all of the fatalities inflicted. Certainly they lost at least one Fateh-110 and I saw a radar not spinning, but I also saw a dug-in SA-6 near the edge of the airbase. How badly were they hit from an equipment perspective?

Given the surviving aircraft, runways and air defense systems, would you characterize the attack as purely punitive? Was there no real attempt to substantially degrade the SyAAF or its air defenses?

Do you think that the use of fifty-nine Tomahawks was a judicious use? Overkill? Not enough? Based upon the Tomahawk's operational history, the number of missiles per target varies widely, and Shayrat was hardened. To completely obliterate the base would require over 100 Tomahawks in my view, or more appropriately, follow-on by bombers.

You mentioned that the S-400 was silent. However, isn't the S-400's radar blocked by the mountains between Homs and Latakia? In addition, would the Russians want to reveal their system's capabilities with respect to cruise missiles, only to defend Assad against an act of folly?


In my humble opinion, Assad authorized the use of Sarin in order to: (a) test Trump, (b) bring international attention back to Syria, and (c) ensure that Putin sticks around in order to keep the United States out. With Trump explicitly focused on Daesh and Aleppo having fallen, Putin could bolt for the exit, whereas Assad, and possibly Khamanei, want Putin to stay engaged and help them reconquer the whole of Syria. Basically, I believe that Teheran sees Moscow as a tool to help it carve out its "Green Crescent" through Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, before Teheran turns its attention to Bahrain and Yemen. Lastly, Pakistan, Pakistani Shias, and Balochistan, are probably the main reasons that Teheran wants nuclear weapons, not Israel nor liberating the Palestinians. Thoughts?

[OUTLAW 09]

I strongly doubt the USA are going to do anything to him - ever.

This TLAM-strike was clearly 'against aircraft and the base', not against 'personnel'.

***

Finally there are some sane Russians that are now asking: After U.S. Strikes Syrian Air Base, Russians Ask: 'Where Were Our Vaunted Air Defense Systems?' (http://www.rferl.org/a/weher-was-the-s-300-s-400-missile-defense-systems/28417014.html)

As someone who watched each and every TLAM strike launched in Operation Odessy Dawn from the classified side...(BTW actually have the official T-shirt) those were the older first generation...many "got lost"....missed their targets and or were duds on impact......

The then US solution to everything was to fire a TLAM even against single tanks... ..maybe because an Admiral was leading the operation.....BUT wagging tongues often stated the Navy was just trying to fire up their older TLAMS in order to get the next generation....

The AF could not even get in their air strikes as the Navy would have fired their TLAM as the AF strike craft were on the runway ready for mission takeoff...

Actually in the end the most precise weapon used was the Hellfire launched from Reapers and Predators out of Italy....which was even credited with taking out two SAM6s and one 8.

This new generation is a masterpiece of technology....BTW IMHO this attack was just for 1) show for Russia....2) show for Assad and MAINLY a real live test run under combat conditions.....

It is highly unusual to see a "barrage" of cruise missiles....both DDs basically fired their entire loads and then had to do a sudden resupply at sea..AGAIN getting in combat experience for the crews.....

This new puppy has the ability to have the warhead virtually programed for each individual target....has a higher speed....has a GPS controlled link back to the targeteers that even allow for inflight target resets...to include warhead reconfigurations for that new target....

ALL in real time....both DDs were fully capable of controlling and monitoring all 59 missiles in flight in real time...SOMETHING the Russian Navy will never pull off....ALL monitored BTW by overhead from start to finish ISR...also in real time....

THIS was a warning shot fired at the Russians on the US naval capacities....as the Russians are trying to rebuild a "blue water navy"....

BUT will it change the ground reality in Syria....not for a single second.....

BUT AS A HIDDEN PLUS....Trump looks lie a great leader...looks forceful...AND it takes the heat off his investigation for his solid connections to the Russians in the election and afterwards...

BUT AT WHAT cost to Trump?....it is entirely uninteresting that the Russia propaganda and disinformation kicked in immediately...well more or less immediately and as expected....BUT what was not expected was the sheer number of anti Trump voices from the US far right white nationalists and white supremacists circles which largely and totally had supported Trump and drove his voting numbers....THEY attacked him and declared they were finished with him...that will in the end politically hurt Trump as they are in the voting areas that went largely Trump in the coming by elections of 2018 where he could actually lose control of the US House and potentially the Senate.

And then they fully used the exact same Russian propaganda virtually word for word carrying it over their blogsites and twitter accounts...

NOW the interesting part kicks in....thus proving what myself and tens of others have been saying for months....Russian propaganda media outlets have driven the US white nationalist and white supremacist blogsites and twitter accounts far more deeply than many Americans had ever assumed was possible...this delivered the final nail of evidence for the solid connections...down to actual twitter accounts involved in this disinformation flow chain from Russia to the US...

[Azor]

Lobbing high explosives around, in limited quantities, has never changed the course of any war, ever. No matter what TV "experts" say.

Interesting. "Slinging lead around the battlefield", to quote CJTF-OIR's prior spokesman, was exactly what Russia began doing in Syria in late 2015. Despite the fact that Russian support on the ground - including providing Assad's forces with the latest in armor and artillery, repairing it and sometimes even crewing it - was decisive, it was the small, ineffective but swaggering air campaign that was considered decisive and which caught the world's attention. This despite the fact that Obama was killing tens of thousands of Daesh fighters and meticulously avoiding civilians where possible. So why is Russia's air campaign considered a turning point, but the American one is forgotten?



How does 59 more suddenly demonstrate US "resolve," "credibility," + "leadership?

Very simply. It was the style of the strike.

Putin gets style. Trump gets style. Obama never understood it. You might as well have appointed a Chief Risk Officer from a large insurer in the Midwest to Chief Executive Officer of a performance hedge fund in New York, when it comes to Obama's "don't do stupid stuff" and "lead from behind" foreign policy.

Trump didn't wait weeks for international agencies to determine whether Sarin really was used and for the false flag propaganda to overwhelm people. Nor did he ask for support from the British parliament or Congress for a military action that was well within his authority to order. He knew that he would be tested and that if he failed here, he might face a bigger test in the Strait of Hormuz, or the DMZ, or in Narva, or in the South China Sea.

Perhaps you'd like to argue for Clinton's proposed no-fly zone, and how that would be preferable?

[OUTLAW 09]

Nikki Haley says she doesn't see a political solution to the conflict in Syria.
http://cnn.it/2obGHWe

[Azor]

As someone who watched each and every TLAM strike launched in Operation Odessey Dawn [sic] from the classified side...

Lucky...I would've loved to see them in action. Imagine if the British and French were left to their own devices to attempt a "Suez" on Qaddafi?


...wagging tongues often stated the Navy was just trying to fire up their older TLAMS in order to get the next generation...

In the age of Sequestration? Brilliant move.


This new generation is a masterpiece of technology...This new puppy has the ability to have the warhead virtually programmed for each individual target....has a higher speed....has a GPS controlled link back to the targeteers that even allow for inflight target resets...to include warhead reconfigurations for that new target...

But these sound like incremental improvements for low-end strikes. How will this upgraded Block IV fare against Russian and Chinese air defense systems, disruption of satellite links and EM countermeasures? It has unparalleled sensors, accuracy, reliability, range and targeting flexibility, but it does lack speed and stealth. Having said that, super and hypersonic missiles can be difficult to control...

It does amaze me how the United States is able to upgrade and re-purpose existing weapons systems. Now the Tomahawk is competing with the LRASM, although I believe that the LRSAM/LRSO family will complement the Tomahawk and the JASSM-ER.

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting. "Slinging lead around the battlefield", to quote CJTF-OIR's prior spokesman, was exactly what Russia began doing in Syria in late 2015. Despite the fact that Russian support on the ground - including providing Assad's forces with the latest in armor and artillery, repairing it and sometimes even crewing it - was decisive, it was the small, ineffective but swaggering air campaign that was considered decisive and which caught the world's attention. This despite the fact that Obama was killing tens of thousands of Daesh fighters and meticulously avoiding civilians where possible. So why is Russia's air campaign considered a turning point, but the American one is forgotten?




Very simply. It was the style of the strike.

Putin gets style. Trump gets style. Obama never understood it. You might as well have appointed a Chief Risk Officer from a large insurer in the Midwest to Chief Executive Officer of a performance hedge fund in New York, when it comes to Obama's "don't do stupid stuff" and "lead from behind" foreign policy.

Trump didn't wait weeks for international agencies to determine whether Sarin really was used and for the false flag propaganda to overwhelm people. Nor did he ask for support from the British parliament or Congress for a military action that was well within his authority to order. He knew that he would be tested and that if he failed here, he might face a bigger test in the Strait of Hormuz, or the DMZ, or in Narva, or in the South China Sea.

Perhaps you'd like to argue for Clinton's proposed no-fly zone, and how that would be preferable?

BTW ask the Iraqi's under Saddam just how effective the US no fly zone over the Kurds worked out....like a fine Swiss watch...that was totally effective...BUT at the cost of millions of dollars...

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting. "Slinging lead around the battlefield", to quote CJTF-OIR's prior spokesman, was exactly what Russia began doing in Syria in late 2015. Despite the fact that Russian support on the ground - including providing Assad's forces with the latest in armor and artillery, repairing it and sometimes even crewing it - was decisive, it was the small, ineffective but swaggering air campaign that was considered decisive and which caught the world's attention. This despite the fact that Obama was killing tens of thousands of Daesh fighters and meticulously avoiding civilians where possible. So why is Russia's air campaign considered a turning point, but the American one is forgotten?

Very simply. It was the style of the strike.

Putin gets style. Trump gets style. Obama never understood it. You might as well have appointed a Chief Risk Officer from a large insurer in the Midwest to Chief Executive Officer of a performance hedge fund in New York, when it comes to Obama's "don't do stupid stuff" and "lead from behind" foreign policy.

Trump didn't wait weeks for international agencies to determine whether Sarin really was used and for the false flag propaganda to overwhelm people. Nor did he ask for support from the British parliament or Congress for a military action that was well within his authority to order. He knew that he would be tested and that if he failed here, he might face a bigger test in the Strait of Hormuz, or the DMZ, or in Narva, or in the South China Sea.

Perhaps you'd like to argue for Clinton's proposed no-fly zone, and how that would be preferable?

Azor
Here's your crash course in operant conditioning, aka the mechanisms through which you reinforce Trump's behavior.

WHICH the Us MSM urgently needs to get to....and the Russians fully understand BTW....

When you want to reduce/stop a behavior, you can do this by:
-Adding a negative consequence (+/-)
-Removing a positive consequence (-+)

When Trump bombed an empty field in Syria this week, media responded by:
-Adding positive coverage (++)
-Reducing negative coverage (--)

The media showed Trump that he can use bombs to boost positive coverage & reduce negative coverage - ie, they reinforced his behavior.

So next time Trump needs to change the narrative, you can be sure he'll remember that bombs did the trick this time!

THIS is exactly BTW how informational warfare is driven....the Russian MoD has fully explained this in their information warfare doctrine...they just tie into this the internet and social media and they are off and running....

This sums up the charts....
The DonCon-op: Warn enemies in advance. Launch expensive but worthless attack. Claim greatest Victory since WWII.

Check the last chart..this happened in the middle of the TLAM attack BUT US MSM slide right over it...and it is critical....

Russian software engineer was detained in Barcelona in possible connection to U.S elections hack:https://it.liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-april-russian-software-engineer-was-detained-in-barcelona#

Mod adds the link is only to a headline, not a report.

It is interesting that in the last year......THREE major Russian hackers and or hacker leaders have been arrested in Barcelona....maybe they like the weather there? OR simply there is a very large Russian mob base there...

IT is highly interesting that even the Chinese verify my flow chart.....

China's state news agency says Trump bombed Syria "to overcome accusations that he was “pro-Russia.” Meaning he was dodging his Russian connections....https://nyti.ms/2nVNfr8

[OUTLAW 09]

Politico's deep dive on Trump's decision making has enticing throwaway line on Sarin logistics at Shayrat

WERE in fact the precursors combined at base?

IF so then the Russians were totally complicit...

REMEMBER prior to all targets being struck they are under 500% ISR coverage....AND there are more than enough ISR assets overhead now in Syria that they were watching this airfield for a long time before the attack.....

[OUTLAW 09]

This coming from a well known white hat hacker....

JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹ @th3j35t3r
I guess we've been doing the whole military thang wrong for the last 100 years. Thanks for clueing us in with your strategic genius, Don.

DID not realize Trump was a fully qualified construction engineer who specialized in airfield construction...YEs you do destroy runways..and that takes then time to get them back into operation....

Not like filling a pothole....which is what Trump is apparently referring to....

[Azor]

Outlaw,

Firstly, the no-fly zone in northern Iraq came to include a no-drive zone and is still in operation almost thirty years later. Do you want a similar commitment in Syria, especially when it will.be contested by Iran and Russia?

Secondly, I know of your antipathy toward Trump and a gigantic flowchart is not required to drive the point home.

Thirdly, are you disagreeing with CrowBat over the damage assessment?

Fourth, why would the Russians want Assad to use chemical weapons? To test American resolve? If anything, I think Assad did it secretly but used the Russians as an unwitting human shield.

Lastly, you've been harping on about Chris Steele's "graphic novel", so tell me, when is the golden shower tape going to appear? Putin's pissed - no pun intended - so now would be the perfect time...

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

Firstly, the no-fly zone in northern Iraq came to include a no-drive zone and is still in operation almost thirty years later. Do you want a similar commitment in Syria, especially when it will.be contested by Iran and Russia?

Secondly, I know of your antipathy toward Trump and a gigantic flowchart is not required to drive the point home.

Thirdly, are you disagreeing with CrowBat over the damage assessment?

Fourth, why would the Russians want Assad to use chemical weapons? To test American resolve? If anything, I think Assad did it secretly but used the Russians as an unwitting human shield.

Lastly, you've been harping on about Chris Steele's "graphic novel", so tell me, when is the golden shower tape going to appear? Putin's pissed - no pun intended - so now would be the perfect time...

Reference ...

1. a no fly zone in Syria will actually work..if approached this way ....damage all Syrian AF planes and copters...why copters...they are doing the heavy lifting on barrel bombings.....THEN it will be apparent to the world if Russia continues to fly sorties and drop cluster incendiary munitions or bunker busters as they will be literally the only ones flying...right now the RuAF just mingles in with the Syrian AF and you from the ground cannot clearly ID who is flying the strike mission...

THEN you no longer need a "no fly zone"...this should have been done in 2013 and you would not have seen sarin used again via Assad aircraft .....

2. Flowcharts are necessary simply because until every single person fully understands information warfare and how it is being successfully used against the US and Europe....this chart is not going away anytime soon....

3. Do not disagree on the BDA as I have posted enough to confirm CrowBat's assessment....I simply state....a wasted 59 TLAMs in order to make Trump appear to be "strong"....AND it definitely did not slow down the RuAF and Syrian AF air ops....

IF you launch a 59 missile strike THEN you should have a far better "follow on affects" for the mission....that strike was not "cheap".....

THIS is what the military targteers call ...the second and third order of affects.....

BUT this damage alone did not stop the Russian and Assad from unleashing a massive incendiary cluster munitions strike against anything that literally moved yesterday...MAKING a farce out of Trump's single TLAM strike.

4. Azor....here is the problem with your comment on 4...the Russians were in fact on the same base and believe me when it comes to CWs the GRU is well informed of where they are and who is controlling them...especially if their troops are collocated near to CWs....

Russia "not knowing" is like arguing you are not pregnant but in the sixth month and it shows........

5. I harp on Steele because right now a full 80% of the report has in fact been verified both by OSINT and the comments made by the FBI/NSA House briefings...alluded to via SIGINT and surveillance.

As always with HUMINT there is 20% that is off and or not quite accurate....

BUT here is the kicker...really read the dossier and you will see that it is a collection of HUMAN source conversations and recallings of conversations BUT naming names which is rare for HUMINT...

The interesting thing is now SIGINT both from the US and European sources confirmed a lot of those conversations actually took place...

There is an old saying in HUMINT.........SIGINT...ELINT...and satellites cannot tell you what is behind the third door on the right side on the second floor in a five story underground bunker...BUT the human can....OR what a decision maker is thinking at the moment

A many think that just because there are X number of satellites they cover "the world"...no they do not and sometimes have to be repositioned and or ranged in a certain angle to confirm what the human is saying was there and that takes time and planning...

BUT if I remember our conversations on the Steel dossier you flatly blew the report off.....go back and reread my comments.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Jordan is now doing the Russian heavy lifting......and openly now supports Russian Syrian moves....not so sure the Ukrainians would agree with his comments....

King Abdullah: Compromise with Russia on Crimea to get its help in Syria

What is exactly what the Russians are to do in Syria...they are fighting IS are they not.....no not really....

[OUTLAW 09]

Hello CrowBat. The Syria discussion hasn't been this lively since Aleppo...

In terms of accuracy and reliability, the 98%+ success rate should quiet some of the Tomahawk's detractors, although it will likely be eclipsed by the LRSO/LRASM family of systems over the next few years for high-end land-attack and anti-ship strikes.

I have several questions:


I saw several fixed-wing aircraft parked in the open at the base on the Russian UAV video. Are these non-operational? Does this indicate that more aircraft survived in the hardened shelters?

You said that the 136th Air Defense Regiment suffered a "severe blow", and all of the fatalities inflicted. Certainly they lost at least one Fateh-110 and I saw a radar not spinning, but I also saw a dug-in SA-6 near the edge of the airbase. How badly were they hit from an equipment perspective?

Given the surviving aircraft, runways and air defense systems, would you characterize the attack as purely punitive? Was there no real attempt to substantially degrade the SyAAF or its air defenses?

Do you think that the use of fifty-nine Tomahawks was a judicious use? Overkill? Not enough? Based upon the Tomahawk's operational history, the number of missiles per target varies widely, and Shayrat was hardened. To completely obliterate the base would require over 100 Tomahawks in my view, or more appropriately, follow-on by bombers.

You mentioned that the S-400 was silent. However, isn't the S-400's radar blocked by the mountains between Homs and Latakia? In addition, would the Russians want to reveal their system's capabilities with respect to cruise missiles, only to defend Assad against an act of folly?


In my humble opinion, Assad authorized the use of Sarin in order to: (a) test Trump, (b) bring international attention back to Syria, and (c) ensure that Putin sticks around in order to keep the United States out. With Trump explicitly focused on Daesh and Aleppo having fallen, Putin could bolt for the exit, whereas Assad, and possibly Khamanei, want Putin to stay engaged and help them reconquer the whole of Syria. Basically, I believe that Teheran sees Moscow as a tool to help it carve out its "Green Crescent" through Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, before Teheran turns its attention to Bahrain and Yemen. Lastly, Pakistan, Pakistani Shias, and Balochistan, are probably the main reasons that Teheran wants nuclear weapons, not Israel nor liberating the Palestinians. Thoughts?

Sarin was used simply because Assad assumed he could get away with it..if one takes the ever increasing chlorine attacks that the UNSC could not even agree on...who is going to worry about the use of sarin....

The West urgently needs to have the chemical agent clearly identified as the initial field reports also sighted heavy chlorine odors on the clothing of the gas victims....SO was this a trial mixture using different precursors sarin being only one of them???? And there are solid reports that those that came into contact with the chemicals were also contaminated as well....sarin is usually immediately absorbed into the skin and cannot "rub off"...could have come from heavy soaked clothing but it does dissipate with time....there is much more than needs to be understood on this chemical agent...

I am patiently waiting for the OSINT report coming out of bellingcat..who produced some of the best OSINT on the 2013 attack as well as from the Russian OSINT group CIT...from the Russian side...

It was not used to "test anyone"....what is puzzling is the use of apparently a single sarin container as there has been really only one impact point seen...there had been initially 2 or 3 reported with a single photo but I have not seen those impact sites outside of this single photo so one impact is all...and the amount of causalities for a single container is actually impressive....

There were far more used in the 2013 attack and those killed then were 1200-1300....this single container caused roughly 100 killed but the injured number was in the 500-600 range...

IMHO..Assad is "rattled" from the major offensives where he is right now in his back foot and struggling to hold back those offensives especially in Daraa and Hama....and he lashed out to hurt the rebels...especially their families...

We see this "punishment" in the last few days of intensive use of cluster incendiaries on civilians and civilian residences....by both Russians and Assad AFs....

Since the morning, the #AssadPutin air force also uses #ClusterBombs on #Daraa city t stop rebel advances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y04dJy3vSek&feature=youtu.be#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Some #Assad regime fortifications were completely leveled by the rebels.

[OUTLAW 09]

AND Trump was against "regime change"...was he not during the campaign????

Trump's U.N. envoy says ouster of al-Assad is a priority of U.S.
http://reut.rs/2nsRvCh

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Rebels have killed many pro-#Assad forces in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa City yesterday.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.610966&lon=36.087728&z=15&m=b#

Main hospital of Dael town bombed out of service


Fatal dissent: When a Hezbollah commander argued with Iran

Nothing more chillingly underlines Tehran’s determination to establish a permanent presence in Syria than the assassination of Mustafa Badreddine, the Hezbollah No.2 who dared question its policies
http://www.timesofisrael.com/fatal-dissent-when-a-hezbollah-commander-argued-with-iran/

[OUTLAW 09]

Under the eyes of the #Kremlin regime troops,#EthnicCleansing/mass forced displacement continues in #AlWaer this morning.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sarin was used simply because Assad assumed he could get away with it..if one takes the ever increasing chlorine attacks that the UNSC could not even agree on...who is going to worry about the use of sarin....

The West urgently needs to have the chemical agent clearly identified as the initial field reports also sighted heavy chlorine odors on the clothing of the gas victims....SO was this a trial mixture using different precursors sarin being only one of them???? And there are solid reports that those that came into contact with the chemicals were also contaminated as well....sarin is usually immediately absorbed into the skin and cannot "rub off"...could have come from heavy soaked clothing but it does dissipate with time....there is much more than needs to be understood on this chemical agent...

I am patiently waiting for the OSINT report coming out of bellingcat..who produced some of the best OSINT on the 2013 attack as well as from the Russian OSINT group CIT...from the Russian side...

It was not used to "test anyone"....what is puzzling is the use of apparently a single sarin container as there has been really only one impact point seen...there had been initially 2 or 3 reported with a single photo but I have not seen those impact sites outside of this single photo so one impact is all...and the amount of causalities for a single container is actually impressive....

There were far more used in the 2013 attack and those killed then were 1200-1300....this single container caused roughly 100 killed but the injured number was in the 500-600 range...

IMHO..Assad is "rattled" from the major offensives where he is right now in his back foot and struggling to hold back those offensives especially in Daraa and Hama....and he lashed out to hurt the rebels...especially their families...

We see this "punishment" in the last few days of intensive use of cluster incendiaries on civilians and civilian residences....by both Russians and Assad AFs....

Since the morning, the #AssadPutin air force also uses #ClusterBombs on #Daraa city t stop rebel advances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y04dJy3vSek&feature=youtu.be#…

NOTICE the not so subtle Russian MoD tie back into chemical warfare.....

THAT is exactly why I state Russian GRU knew about the Assad chemical attack...

Meanwhile in occupied eastern #Ukraine ...
Even more scary after we know #Russia approved the #IdlibGasAttack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKmocNZCIMQ#…

[OUTLAW 09]

This is what the #AssadPutin air force threw against rebels and civilians yesterday.
They still failed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozl-z-ogzog#…

Despite massive #AssadPutin air strikes that killed many civilians, Syrian rebels captured 10% of regime-held #Daraa city in 2 days

[OUTLAW 09]

Charles Lister‏
Verified account
#@Charles_Lister

Some Syria analysts defiantly insist that the West cannot/should not try to help push the crisis towards conditions amenable to settlement.

The default policy conclusion for these analysts is that we should *only* fight terrorism, while allowing broader conflict to continue.

In other words, the US should kill the 'bad guys,’ while allowing the foundational justification for 'bad guys’ to get bigger & bigger.

By extension, this also means that 5yrs more war in Syria (say, 250,000 more dead…) is essentially an acceptable policy reality for us.

Has 3yrs of fighting terror while allowing its root causes to fester worked? No.
Has U.S indecision & perceived weakness helped?
No.

Some of these analysts insolently dismiss others’ opinions, while consistently offering *nothing* as an alternative.
= Sheer hypocrisy

Besides being heartless, policy positions based on defeatist isolationism only makes an even greater future intervention more likely.

Only days/wks ago, these analysts dismissed *any* US military action in #Syria as lunacy.
Now suddenly, it’s become a matter of scale.

I can’t blame an analyst for evolving their assessment of a situation, but seriously have some humility.
Some humanity would help too.

[OUTLAW 09]

Trump's missile attack has unleashed some major Russian/US bot trolling and anti Trump comments

A solid number of Russian twitter bots have been identified...and retweeted then by US based trolls....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor
Here's your crash course in operant conditioning, aka the mechanisms through which you reinforce Trump's behavior.

WHICH the Us MSM urgently needs to get to....and the Russians fully understand BTW....

When you want to reduce/stop a behavior, you can do this by:
-Adding a negative consequence (+/-)
-Removing a positive consequence (-+)

When Trump bombed an empty field in Syria this week, media responded by:
-Adding positive coverage (++)
-Reducing negative coverage (--)

The media showed Trump that he can use bombs to boost positive coverage & reduce negative coverage - ie, they reinforced his behavior.

So next time Trump needs to change the narrative, you can be sure he'll remember that bombs did the trick this time!

THIS is exactly BTW how informational warfare is driven....the Russian MoD has fully explained this in their information warfare doctrine...they just tie into this the internet and social media and they are off and running....

This sums up the charts....
The DonCon-op: Warn enemies in advance. Launch expensive but worthless attack. Claim greatest Victory since WWII.

Check the last chart..this happened in the middle of the TLAM attack BUT US MSM slide right over it...and it is critical....

Russian software engineer was detained in Barcelona in possible connection to U.S elections hack:https://it.liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-april-russian-software-engineer-was-detained-in-barcelona#

Mod adds the link is only to a headline, not a report.

It is interesting that in the last year......THREE major Russian hackers and or hacker leaders have been arrested in Barcelona....maybe they like the weather there? OR simply there is a very large Russian mob base there...

IT is highly interesting that even the Chinese verify my flow chart.....

China's state news agency says Trump bombed Syria "to overcome accusations that he was “pro-Russia.” Meaning he was dodging his Russian connections....https://nyti.ms/2nVNfr8

Comment from one of the best social media OSINT types going these days who has set the standard even for the military...and he is UK not US based....

Eliot Higgins
✔
@EliotHiggins
Hey media, Russia told a lie that falls apart with the most basic fact checking and you're lapping it it. That's on you.


Eliot Higgins
✔
@EliotHiggins
It isn't balance when you don't bother fact checking statements by parties that are well established liars, it's being played for suckers


THAT is exactly why this flow chart is so important in the info war fight...

[OUTLAW 09]

Israel's Communist Party consistently backs Assad & Russian intervention. Apparently when it's Russia+Iran intervening it's not imperialism

Israel's Communist Party prevented issuing of an Arab Joint List condemnation of the chemical massacre in Syria

Elizabeth Tsurkov‏
Verified account
What was the intended effects of the chemical strike? How did the American strike undermine it? And why Khan Sheikhoun? My new analysis
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.782366

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor
Here's your crash course in operant conditioning, aka the mechanisms through which you reinforce Trump's behavior.

WHICH the Us MSM urgently needs to get to....and the Russians fully understand BTW....

When you want to reduce/stop a behavior, you can do this by:
-Adding a negative consequence (+/-)
-Removing a positive consequence (-+)

When Trump bombed an empty field in Syria this week, media responded by:
-Adding positive coverage (++)
-Reducing negative coverage (--)

The media showed Trump that he can use bombs to boost positive coverage & reduce negative coverage - ie, they reinforced his behavior.

So next time Trump needs to change the narrative, you can be sure he'll remember that bombs did the trick this time!

THIS is exactly BTW how informational warfare is driven....the Russian MoD has fully explained this in their information warfare doctrine...they just tie into this the internet and social media and they are off and running....

This sums up the charts....
The DonCon-op: Warn enemies in advance. Launch expensive but worthless attack. Claim greatest Victory since WWII.

Check the last chart..this happened in the middle of the TLAM attack BUT US MSM slide right over it...and it is critical....

Russian software engineer was detained in Barcelona in possible connection to U.S elections hack:https://it.liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-april-russian-software-engineer-was-detained-in-barcelona#

Mod adds the link is only to a headline, not a report.

It is interesting that in the last year......THREE major Russian hackers and or hacker leaders have been arrested in Barcelona....maybe they like the weather there? OR simply there is a very large Russian mob base there...

IT is highly interesting that even the Chinese verify my flow chart.....

China's state news agency says Trump bombed Syria "to overcome accusations that he was “pro-Russia.” Meaning he was dodging his Russian connections....https://nyti.ms/2nVNfr8

Background story on the worldwide hunt for Russian hackers in general...this particular arrest has not been signaled yet in western MSM but picked up in Russian MSM...looking for the Russian link....
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article141998499.html

Was actually surprised to see Russian reports of a Russian hacker arrested for US elections hacking....

LOCATED original Russian source....

First mentioned in this Russia twitter account
Mikhail Golub‏#
@golub
Программист из Петербурга задержан в Испании по запросу США.
Не хочет русский хакер отдыхать на Байкале

Actual referenced Russian media source.
http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2017/04/09/1606078.html

Article is in Russian.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Eliot Higgins‏
Verified account
Pro-Assadists share videos of chemical weapon testing kits pretending they're actual chemical weapons

طارق‏#
@tarek_oo7
Very important tweets below to prove and confirm that the terrorist "rebels" in Syria has #ChemicalWeapons.

In 21 Nov 2012 , you-tuber Mazen Alshami uploaded a vid online for the terrorists saying they entered a military chemical facility.

[OUTLAW 09]

Israel's Communist Party consistently backs Assad & Russian intervention. Apparently when it's Russia+Iran intervening it's not imperialism

Israel's Communist Party prevented issuing of an Arab Joint List condemnation of the chemical massacre in Syria


It is extremely interesting to watch how the left and right in Europe together with the US ultra right IE white nationalists and white supremacists rally around Russian propaganda when it comes to the Syrian CWs attack...

Kremlin's pet Italian fascist @matteosalvinimi is only "following orders"

"Use of gas in Syria? I want proof"
https://twitter.com/lega_nord/status/851080789265711106#

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT...why are Assad forces carrying protective masks....????

Daraa: Killed pro-#Assad forces in #Daraa were equipped with gas masks. For the case that #Assad's chemical weapons hit his own troops.

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Photos show more pro-#Assad forces who were killed by rebels in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa City yesterday.

[OUTLAW 09]

McMaster: "how could it be" that Russia didn't know Syria was preparing and executing chemical weapons attack given RUS advisers at airbase

Rex says the battle against ISIS "is being coordinated somewhat with the Syrian regime..." Wait, WHAT??? @ThisWeekABC

So weird how Moscow and Damascus -- and sometimes #ISIS -- always seem to know our ops plans, isn't it?

[OUTLAW 09]

Love affair over?

Russian TV's Kiselev: "Trump has made a 180 degree turn.
He's definitely not the same figure, that was once so liked"

Russia's state TV: "The #Kremlin already noticed the change in words and deeds of the new American administration.
Changes for the worse."

Russia's state TV re: Syria strikes:
"Actions of a neophyte, with no victories, defeats or any experience in int'l politics under his belt."

Russia's state TV re: US strikes in #Syria:
"If Trump continues to act this way towards Russia, there's no way he'll get along with Putin."

[OUTLAW 09]

Assad allies say U.S. attack on Syria air base crosses 'red lines'
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-allies-idUSKBN17B0K7


A joint command center made up of the forces of Russia, Iran and militias supporting Syrian President Bashar al Assad said the U.S. strike on a Syrian air base on Friday crossed "red lines" and it would respond to any new aggression and increase its support for its ally.
The United States fired dozens of cruise missiles at a Syrian air base on Friday from which it said a deadly chemical weapons attack had been launched earlier in the week, escalating the U.S. role in Syria and drawing criticism from Assad's allies including Russia and Iran.
"What America waged in an aggression on Syria is a crossing of red lines. From now on we will respond with force to any aggressor or any breach of red lines from whoever it is and America knows our ability to respond well," said the statement published by the group on media outlet Ilam al Harbi (War Media).
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, meanwhile, blamed Russian inaction for helping fuel the chemical weapons attack it had reacted to, saying Moscow had failed to carry out a 2013 agreement to secure and destroy chemical weapons in Syria.
He said the United States expected Russia to take a tougher stance against Syria by rethinking its alliance with Assad because "every time one of these horrific attacks occurs, it draws Russia closer into some level of responsibility."

PUTIN, ROUHANI SPEAK
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's Hassan Rouhani said in a phone call that aggressive U.S. actions against Syria were not permissible and violated international law, the Kremlin said on Sunday.
The two leaders also called for an objective investigation into an incident involving chemical weapons in Syria's Idlib and said they were ready to deepen cooperation to fight terrorism, the Kremlin said in a statement on its website.
Syrian army forces had been losing ground across the country until Russia intervened militarily in September 2015, propping up Assad and protecting its own interests in the region.
Assad has also drawn heavily on foreign Shi'ite militias sponsored by Iran, led by Lebanon's Hezbollah group, for his most important gains since the Russian intervention.
Also In World News
The joint command center also said the presence of U.S troops in northern Syria where Washington has hundreds of special forces helping the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to oust Islamic State was "illegal" and that Washington had a long-term plan to occupy the area.
The regional alliance said the U.S. cruise missile strikes on a Syrian base which Washington said was involved in a chemical attack that killed dozens of civilians would not deter their forces from "liberating" all of Syrian territory.
Many Syrians opposed to Assad's rule consider Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iranian-backed troops as occupiers seeking to drive out mainly Sunni Syrians from the areas they live in. They hold Iran and its allies responsible for the displacement of millions outside the country.
They also see Russia as a foreign occupier whose relentless aerial bombardment of rebel-held areas has led to thousands of civilian casualties. Some accuse Moscow of applying a "scorched-earth policy" that targets hospitals, schools and residential areas more than frontlines to break the resolve of the anti-Assad insurgency.

[OUTLAW 09]

McMaster: "how could it be" that Russia didn't know Syria was preparing and executing chemical weapons attack given RUS advisers at airbase

Rex says the battle against ISIS "is being coordinated somewhat with the Syrian regime..." Wait, WHAT??? @ThisWeekABC

So weird how Moscow and Damascus -- and sometimes #ISIS -- always seem to know our ops plans, isn't it?

Rex says strike was meant "to render that airbase... no longer usable." Seems like he's admitting the strike failed


SO did the US DoS just fully admit that the US is coordinating with Syria against IS???

If true, this is an example of what happens when you warn #Russia (who in turn warns #Assad) of strikes, in advance.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's state TV: "Losses from US strike on Syria were mainly planes that were being repaired or about to be decommissioned."
Convenient.

[OUTLAW 09]

A few notes on what Russia is doing when it demands the U.S. provide evidence for things everyone knows happened.

The US spent the Cold War developing all kinds of ingenious capabilities to monitor enemy (read: "Russian") military capabilities/movements.

Russia knows we're not likely to divulge all of what we know and, more importantly, *how* we know it. So on one level, they're trolling us.

But Russia also has a professional interest in our sources and methods, which they want to know more about so they can adjust their actions.

So if in the course of an international incident's aftermath we show a little leg, that's a small victory for the Russians.

You beat the Russians at this game by refusing to play it. Don't let them goad you into revealing sensitive US capabilities.

[OUTLAW 09]

Assad allies say U.S. attack on Syria air base crosses 'red lines'
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-allies-idUSKBN17B0K7



Hezbollah, Russia and Iran coalition is now threatening U.S. to not attack Assad

[OUTLAW 09]

Both airworthy SyAAF IL-76 [YK-ATA/ATD] + Iranian Pouya Air [EP-PUS] cargo planes between Damascus and Tehran today and yesterday

[OUTLAW 09]

This has been my opinion for years ..........

We will be fighting Salafi jihadism, in various forms, for many decades to come.
But it will eventually burn out.

USG lacks the skills - & stomach - to do the non-kinetic things that would actually defeat Salafi jihadists faster.

It's INCREDIBLY difficult to defeat an idea with bullets. It will burn out but it's gonna take time, patience, and commitment.

In Europe this has been true since the 50s....Red Brigades...2 Juni...RAF..Baader Meihof....All Palestinian groups......all blossomed and then faded....and surprisingly there were far more people killed in those attacks than anything IS has done.

Most European leaders view this as a long term state security and police effort...

[OUTLAW 09]

Stockholm's truck-jihadist is an Uzbek plus the six who were also arrested with him...... Oslo's would-be 17 year old Russian who was claiming refugee status bomber is from Russia.

Lot of ex-Soviet badness in Scandinavia these days.

Hmmmm....wonder why Scandinavia???

[OUTLAW 09]

Rare photos of the Technicals' annual migration across the Levant Desert. Isn't nature wonderful?

[OUTLAW 09]

A few notes on what Russia is doing when it demands the U.S. provide evidence for things everyone knows happened.

The US spent the Cold War developing all kinds of ingenious capabilities to monitor enemy (read: "Russian") military capabilities/movements.

Russia knows we're not likely to divulge all of what we know and, more importantly, *how* we know it. So on one level, they're trolling us.

But Russia also has a professional interest in our sources and methods, which they want to know more about so they can adjust their actions.

So if in the course of an international incident's aftermath we show a little leg, that's a small victory for the Russians.

You beat the Russians at this game by refusing to play it. Don't let them goad you into revealing sensitive US capabilities.

Kosachev, chair of the FA cmte, called cynical DJT refusal to show evidence of Assad's involvement in sarin attack.

[OUTLAW 09]

Idlib: #Russia|n warplanes attacking civilians in #Idlib Province with incendiary bombs this evening.

Russian Su-34 attacked Sarmin town in Idlib
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-L1DG6S8b4#
pic.twitter.com/9aLzeomPq7

BREAKING: Russia sent its most advanced jets in Syria (Su-35) to bomb Rebel-held Daraa
pic.twitter.com/gixopEaGYb

Daraa: 15 more pro-Assad confirmed killed in Al-Manshiyah. 1st one is Brig. General
pic.twitter.com/JQf5j5GAx7

Bombardment of Khan Shaykhun town in Idlib today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32lORsQLtVc#

2 helicopters flying over Daraa countryside
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBS30JZJ-Zg#

Video from inside Al Manshiyah district of Daraa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsW6QkLYLPA#

Syria: Violent strikes on Al Qabun district of Damascus this morning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7r97Xs6NtI#

Close call when RuAF drops incendiary bomb targeting Saraqib area. Idlib
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-april-close-call-when-ruaf-drops-incendiary-bomb-targeting#

Aircraft hit Zamalka, Qabun. Number of civilians were wounded
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gAExAjMTds#

[OUTLAW 09]

An 'infantile argument': Experts pour cold water on Russia's 'fanciful' explanation for Syrian gas attack
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/infantile-argument-experts-pour-cold-142850181.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw#

3 airplanes launched airstrikes on Damascus suburbs, also 18 surface-to-surface missiles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmsORMdDoS0#

20 killed as result of airstrike on Urum al-Jos town in Idlib
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yknAydcdtXs#

BREAKING: Syria: Aircrafts targeted Al-Habit town
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_QPD8cPjQg#

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama Battle:Central Division destroyed with a TOW a 57 mm gun and killed several pro-Assad

Hama Battle: Ahrar Al-Sham declares Rebels repelled pro-Government forces assault on Helfaya

President Erdoğan urges Russia to stop supporting Assad government

Hama Battle: Jaish Al-Nasr shelling with 122 mm cannon pro-Regime forces trying to advance on #Helfaya front.

Suqaylbiyah is an important Regime artillery pos. since years but pro-Regime foreign militias (#Hezbollah & #Iraq|is) in #Muhardah are new.

This is the Regime strategy to use Christian towns like #Muhardah as platform to attack Rebels & then accuse them when returning fire.

Hama Battle: Jaish Al-Nasr destroyed a mounted 37 mm gun on #Khattab front. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.203971&lon=36.668587&z=13&m#…

Hama Battle: #Russia|n presence near frontlines is confirmed. Officer pictured with pro-Regime Baath Brigades. https://www.facebook.com/bbsr.sy/photos/pcb.1916787668537951/1916787575204627/?type=3&theater#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Rare photos of the Technicals' annual migration across the Levant Desert. Isn't nature wonderful?

Free Syrian Army forces expel Daesh from Tanf border crossing on the Syria-Iraq border

S. #Syria: #FSA repelled #ISIS surprise attack on Al-Tanf base near #Jordan border. SVBIED targeted reinforcements, 2 killed and 7 wounded.

[OUTLAW 09]

Well worth reading....

US strikes mark a new turn in Syria and beyond. Destination unknown

Hassan Hassan

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/08/us-airstrikes-mark-new-turn-in-syria-and-beyond-destination-unknown


The decision of the US finally to punish Bashar al-Assad for the use of chemical weapons against civilians will turn out to be, no doubt, a catalyst for a new chapter in the Syrian conflict. Even though US officials repeatedly emphasised the missile strikes on the Shayrat airfield were a one-off punitive measure, the unprecedented move comes amid a set of turning points in different parts of Syria and in the way foreign actors operate there. It is against the backdrop of these changes that the regime’s logic behind the use of chemical weapons should be viewed.
Paradoxically, recent changes in the conflict have seemed to favour the regime. Exactly one week before the missile attack, American officials gave Assad something he long wanted, namely, a new stated policy that his removal was no longer a US objective. This came in the form of top-level remarks from Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN, and Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, stating that the long-term status of Assad would be decided by the Syrian people .
The message was cause for celebration in Damascus, especially as the about-face reflects the approach of the opposition’s regional and international backers in recent months.
Turkey, for example, turned its attention wholly to its operation Euphrates Shield campaign to check the expansion of the Kurdish YPG, or the People’s Protection Units, which Ankara considers a terrorist organisation, and to combat Islamic State. Since the campaign began in August, Ankara worked closely with Russia to ensure freedom of operation and several officials frequently stated that the removal of Assad was no longer a Turkish objective. Binali Yildirim, the prime minister, even went so far as to suggest that Ankara would prefer it if the Syrian regime took control of Manbij, a former Isis stronghold liberated by the YPG.
The Gulf states have also reduced their involvement in the Syrian conflict to a minimum. Qatar, the most committed Gulf backer, is less able to increase or even maintain its support, particularly since the Turkish-Russian rapprochement, as aid typically went through Turkey. Saudi Arabia, which continues to support the rebels through the US-run military operations centre in Jordan, has now minimal involvement in military support. The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, appears to have fully pulled out any support provided to the rebels. Jordan’s army chief, Maj Gen Mahmoud Freihat, told BBC Arabic in December that Amman would open the borders if the regime took control of the Syrian side.
‘Syria is not our problem’: Trump’s past comments on Assad regime
These statements from regional backers of the opposition represent a remarkable win for the regime and a profoundly frustrating psychological and operational blow to the rebels, particularly after they were expelled from eastern Aleppo in December. The regime feels its future is not threatened, even while the insurgency against it persists.
The US, meanwhile, continued to focus on its effort in the fight against Isis and al-Qaida. In recent weeks, this focus on extremists began to pay direct dividends for Assad. Last month, for example, the US helped the regime and its Russian and Iranian allies in their campaign to expel Isis from Palmyra by conducting airstrikes against the group there. Also, the planned US operation to dislodge Isis from Raqqa will rely on the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which have no qualms about co-operating with Damascus and Moscow, rather than the Turkish-backed rebels who seek the downfall of Assad.
The burning question, then, is why the regime would gamble with all those gains? Those who cast doubt on the culpability of the regime in the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun, in the northwestern province of Idlib, argue that the behaviour appears illogical and thus unlikely. The regime has everything to lose and little to gain from such an act. On the other hand, what prompted the US to change its posture towards Assad within exactly one week, from declaring that his survival was none of the US’s business?
One explanation of the regime’s motive offered by analysts, such as Faysal Itani of the Atlantic Council, is that the use of chemical weapons in Idlib was a prelude to Damascus’s effort to recapture this rebel-held province. Idlib, which has the only provincial centre controlled by the rebels, is vital in the regime’s long-term plan to control all of the country. The use of chemical weapons will terrify the local population and weaken the rebel resolve there.
As Itani explained, the use of chemical weapons is sometimes a tactical necessity for the thinly stretched Syrian army. The regime got away with chemical attacks dozens of times before and it might not have anticipated an American response.
But what if a US response was part of its calculus? I believe this is a possibility, based on previous conversations with regime supporters, and a theory shared by a former senior regime insider.
If Damascus cleared the use of the poison gas in Idlib, it likely anticipated two scenarios: the US would either respond with punitive measures or continue to ignore such attacks. The regime knows that the consequences of the first scenario, while real, are limited. The regime, its backers as well as its opponents, recognise that the US has no interest whatsoever in destabilising it, at least while the threats of Isis and al-Qaida are still present. Contrary to popular narrative, even regional backers of the opposition have no interest in the disorderly fall of the regime.
Here, then, might have been the thinking before the attack: if the US were to opt for inaction, as usual, the regime would obviously stand to benefit from setting the tone against the new administration in Washington. Despite the change of rhetoric in Washington a week before, the situation in Syria was still fluid and the regime believes it had a high point of leverage as the US readies its troops to fight in Raqqa. Rather than showing gratitude to the changed tone, runs this theory, a regime such as the Syrian one would not risk wasting such an opportunity to double down and gain tangible compromises from the US, which can change its policy after Raqqa.

Continued....

[OUTLAW 09]

Latakia: Rebel assault on Zuwayqat front was stopped w/ involvement of #Russian #SOF. 3 BMPs & one T-72 taken out.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.712789&lon=36.227417&z=13&m#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama Battle: Jaish Al-Izza destroyed with a #TOW a tank on Tell Sofouh, S. of #Helfaya.

Hama Battle: Ahrar Al-Sham declares Rebels repelled pro-Regime forces assault on #Helfaya.

[OUTLAW 09]

Another picture from #Saraqib (#Idlib province), where #Russia right now tries to burn Syrian civilians alive.

Saraqeb, Idlib, today. The Russian regime has bombed numerous towns in Idlib & Hama with thermite & cluster bombs in the past 2 days

Saraqeb is on fire after Russia dropped thermite on the town
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-april-saraqeb-is-on-fire-after-russia-dropped-thermite#

[OUTLAW 09]

WOW...now even the Russian MoD is finding excuses for their poor anti-cruise missile defenses.....

In Russian media now: S-300/S-400 "only 30 km object coverage", Pantsyr S-1 was never designed against cruise missiles

[OUTLAW 09]

On main weekly news prog on Rus state TV, presenter Dmitry Kiselev says America is basically "fighting on the side of terrorists" in Syria

WELL at least the accused Obama of creating IS for years.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Prominent Trump supporter tweeted about the attack an hour before the attack

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/4/7/1651419/-Prominent-Trump-supporter-tweeted-about-the-attack-an-hour-before-the-attack


Just days after Donald Trump Jr. suggested he be given a Pulitzer Prize, Cernovich tweeted, “Sources telling me U.S. attack in Syria planned for tonight, we must stop! #NoMoreWar,” at 7:40 pm Eastern time, an hour and a half before NBC News broke the news of the airstrike.

HE THEN started retweeting the Russian propaganda twitter hashtag....#Syrianhoax which began first from a proAssad twitter source...

SO who leaked this classified event?????

[OUTLAW 09]

SNHR doc. 167 attacks using a #toxic substance since the first #UN resolution in Sep 2013
http://goo.gl/DyBGkR

[Azor]

1. a no fly zone in Syria will actually work..if approached this way ....damage all Syrian AF planes and copters...why copters...they are doing the heavy lifting on barrel bombings.....THEN it will be apparent to the world if Russia continues to fly sorties and drop cluster incendiary munitions or bunker busters as they will be literally the only ones flying...right now the RuAF just mingles in with the Syrian AF and you from the ground cannot clearly ID who is flying the strike mission...

What happens when Russia ignores the No-Fly Zone? What happens when air defense systems are deployed around the zone and begin creeping in?


2. Flowcharts are necessary simply because until every single person fully understands information warfare and how it is being successfully used against the US and Europe....this chart is not going away anytime soon...

Are you referring to politics? Remember when Lincoln and Churchill had to politicize their war efforts? Remember when they needed victories? Remember the endless flak Obama received over his “red line”? Remember how no foreign government distinguished between “calculus” and action?

Do you think that Obama didn’t politicize defense and foreign policy? What else was he doing with regard to Egypt and Libya? Where was he when “spring” changed to “winter”?


3. Do not disagree on the BDA as I have posted enough to confirm CrowBat's assessment....I simply state....a wasted 59 TLAMs in order to make Trump appear to be "strong"....AND it definitely did not slow down the RuAF and Syrian AF air ops...

IF you launch a 59 missile strike THEN you should have a far better "follow on affects" for the mission....that strike was not "cheap".....

BUT this damage alone did not stop the Russian and Assad from unleashing a massive incendiary cluster munitions strike against anything that literally moved yesterday...MAKING a farce out of Trump's single TLAM strike.


3(a) CrowBat stated that the SyAAF received a “severe blow” and that Russia was embarrassed by its inability or unwillingness to contest the strike. He is no fan of Trump to be sure. Yet here you are referring to the strike as a “waste” and a “farce”.

3(b) The airstrike was clearly a punishment in response to Assad’s use of CWs, particularly of the Schedule I variety i.e. Sarin. It was neither a grounding of the SyAAF nor a punishment for the use of cluster munitions or incendiaries.

3(c) Tomahawks were clearly used in place of aircraft in order to respond quickly and effectively as well as to prevent the potential loss of American life. Would you have preferred an attack by F/A-18s? Or a roundtrip mission by B-2s?


4. Azor....here is the problem with your comment on 4...the Russians were in fact on the same base and believe me when it comes to CWs the GRU is well informed of where they are and who is controlling them...especially if their troops are collocated near to CWs....

Russia "not knowing" is like arguing you are not pregnant but in the sixth month and it shows...

I don’t disagree that Russia knew of their existence, but Sarin hasn’t been used since August 2013. Do you think that Russia approved the use of Sarin?


5. I harp on Steele because right now a full 80% of the report has in fact been verified

The only portion of the “Dossier” that was new and interesting was the allegation that Russia had evidence of Trump using the services of prostitutes and engaging in sexual acts that most people would find depraved i.e. a sex tape. The remainder of the “Dossier” was a rehash of prior allegations that had been made throughout the campaign. So where is the sex tape?

Again, Steele knew of a Russian plot so cunning and so secretive that it was run from the Presidential Administration rather than the SVR. It was so secret that only Putin, a handful of his aides, Estonian and Czech intelligence and dozens of low-level Russian businessmen knew about it. And now Trump has become a double-agent!


Sarin was used simply because Assad assumed he could get away with it…if one takes the ever increasing chlorine attacks that the UNSC could not even agree on...who is going to worry about the use of sarin...

Yet you imply that Russia approved its use after almost four years. Why? Chlorine is troublesome because it is comparatively easy to produce, and has been used by Daesh and other Salafi Jihadi militant groups in Syria, making attribution difficult. The use of Sarin points to Assad, and indicates that either he held back some of his stockpile or began producing it again. If anything was going to provoke an American reaction, it was the use of Sarin.


We will be fighting Salafi jihadism, in various forms, for many decades to come. But it will eventually burn out…It's INCREDIBLY difficult to defeat an idea with bullets. It will burn out but it's gonna take time, patience, and commitment.

Ever heard of the “30% solution”? It worked to defeat the ideas of a Europe united under the Habsburgs and the Papacy, separate American slave states, the House of Romanov and the Third Reich.


SO did the US DoS just fully admit that the US is coordinating with Syria against IS???

How else would it respond to accusations that the strike is part of regime change? The very fact that there is de-confliction between Coalition and Syrian forces is evidence of coordination.


Most European leaders view this as a long term state security and police effort...

Which they plan to do on European soil, rather than in the Muslim world.

Last time I visited the Sacré-Coeur, it was a no-go for European women, unless they wanted to be harassed ceaselessly. But at least you could visit it. By the end of the “long term state security and police effort”, I doubt that it will be left standing.

The Western Europeans have struggled so hard to avoid war, and yet they have invited it in whilst trying to be generous and peaceable. Oh well. Strip Europe of its “Others”, and it merely turns upon itself. I'm not sure which is worse...

Lastly, you refer to "second and third effects", during your discussion of the Shayrat airstrike as a waste, implying that the continued air operations targeting civilians and/or using indiscriminate weapons in civilian areas, demonstrates the failure of the mission i.e. that it did not make a difference.

But you personally know how frustrating this new Thirty Years War can be. After all, I doubt that you're worried about some Vietnamese or Russian agent darkening your doorstep. Few if any of your comrades do, which is why I am surprised that you bought into Chris Steele's story about having to flee without feeding his cat or what have you...

You made a great sacrifice, and continue to make it. For all of your care, you must still worry. I can't imagine what it is like to have undergone that and then seen Daesh grow from a few hundred to a few hundred thousand fighters, if the Peshmerga estimates can be believed.

But the U.S. leadership must be cold and calculating. I think of the 20th Century's strategic genius, and despite my admiration, I know personally, the lives he ground under: the exiles who found under the British flag, brilliant commanders such as Wavell, the unwitting young men at Crete and Dieppe, the people of Coventry and Singapore. Yet he won more than he lost, and he grasped the bigger picture, despite his bloody blunders. This is to say nothing of his pre-war fiascoes...

Like it or not, Obama didn't grasp it. Neither did Hillary. I don't know if Trump truly does, but he may. I do know that no American president has grasped it since the elder Bush. As Jack Ryan said in The Hunt for Red October: "give the man a chance".

[davidbfpo]

A commentary by a Turkish author (not resident in Turkey); which starts with:
A precursory postmortem of the vaunted military campaign raises a number of questions, including what caused its termination and why it was not reported immediately? The answers lead one to wonder what comes next.

(Later it is very direct) With such a poor record, there was no compelling reason from a military perspective for Moscow or Washington to replace the Syrian Kurds on the ground with the Turks from the north.
Link:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/turkey-post-mortem-in-syria.html

[OUTLAW 09]

What happens when Russia ignores the No-Fly Zone? What happens when air defense systems are deployed around the zone and begin creeping in?



Are you referring to politics? Remember when Lincoln and Churchill had to politicize their war efforts? Remember when they needed victories? Remember the endless flak Obama received over his “red line”? Remember how no foreign government distinguished between “calculus” and action?

Do you think that Obama didn’t politicize defense and foreign policy? What else was he doing with regard to Egypt and Libya? Where was he when “spring” changed to “winter”?



3(a) CrowBat stated that the SyAAF received a “severe blow” and that Russia was embarrassed by its inability or unwillingness to contest the strike. He is no fan of Trump to be sure. Yet here you are referring to the strike as a “waste” and a “farce”.

3(b) The airstrike was clearly a punishment in response to Assad’s use of CWs, particularly of the Schedule I variety i.e. Sarin. It was neither a grounding of the SyAAF nor a punishment for the use of cluster munitions or incendiaries.

3(c) Tomahawks were clearly used in place of aircraft in order to respond quickly and effectively as well as to prevent the potential loss of American life. Would you have preferred an attack by F/A-18s? Or a roundtrip mission by B-2s?



I don’t disagree that Russia knew of their existence, but Sarin hasn’t been used since August 2013. Do you think that Russia approved the use of Sarin?



The only portion of the “Dossier” that was new and interesting was the allegation that Russia had evidence of Trump using the services of prostitutes and engaging in sexual acts that most people would find depraved i.e. a sex tape. The remainder of the “Dossier” was a rehash of prior allegations that had been made throughout the campaign. So where is the sex tape?

Again, Steele knew of a Russian plot so cunning and so secretive that it was run from the Presidential Administration rather than the SVR. It was so secret that only Putin, a handful of his aides, Estonian and Czech intelligence and dozens of low-level Russian businessmen knew about it. And now Trump has become a double-agent!



Yet you imply that Russia approved its use after almost four years. Why? Chlorine is troublesome because it is comparatively easy to produce, and has been used by Daesh and other Salafi Jihadi militant groups in Syria, making attribution difficult. The use of Sarin points to Assad, and indicates that either he held back some of his stockpile or began producing it again. If anything was going to provoke an American reaction, it was the use of Sarin.



Ever heard of the “30% solution”? It worked to defeat the ideas of a Europe united under the Habsburgs and the Papacy, separate American slave states, the House of Romanov and the Third Reich.



How else would it respond to accusations that the strike is part of regime change? The very fact that there is de-confliction between Coalition and Syrian forces is evidence of coordination.



Which they plan to do on European soil, rather than in the Muslim world.

Last time I visited the Sacré-Coeur, it was a no-go for European women, unless they wanted to be harassed ceaselessly. But at least you could visit it. By the end of the “long term state security and police effort”, I doubt that it will be left standing.

The Western Europeans have struggled so hard to avoid war, and yet they have invited it in whilst trying to be generous and peaceable. Oh well. Strip Europe of its “Others”, and it merely turns upon itself. I'm not sure which is worse...

Lastly, you refer to "second and third effects", during your discussion of the Shayrat airstrike as a waste, implying that the continued air operations targeting civilians and/or using indiscriminate weapons in civilian areas, demonstrates the failure of the mission i.e. that it did not make a difference.

But you personally know how frustrating this new Thirty Years War can be. After all, I doubt that you're worried about some Vietnamese or Russian agent darkening your doorstep. Few if any of your comrades do, which is why I am surprised that you bought into Chris Steele's story about having to flee without feeding his cat or what have you...

You made a great sacrifice, and continue to make it. For all of your care, you must still worry. I can't imagine what it is like to have undergone that and then seen Daesh grow from a few hundred to a few hundred thousand fighters, if the Peshmerga estimates can be believed.

But the U.S. leadership must be cold and calculating. I think of the 20th Century's strategic genius, and despite my admiration, I know personally, the lives he ground under: the exiles who found under the British flag, brilliant commanders such as Wavell, the unwitting young men at Crete and Dieppe, the people of Coventry and Singapore. Yet he won more than he lost, and he grasped the bigger picture, despite his bloody blunders. This is to say nothing of his pre-war fiascoes...

Like it or not, Obama didn't grasp it. Neither did Hillary. I don't know if Trump truly does, but he may. I do know that no American president has grasped it since the elder Bush. As Jack Ryan said in The Hunt for Red October: "give the man a chance".

This answers the comments you made....

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump 10 Oct 2014
Tens of millions of dollars in airstrikes had no impact because key leaders fled after hearing ON NEWS REPORTS the strikes were coming. DUMB

The New York Times‏
Verified account
Opinion: "President Trump does not share his predecessor’s reluctance to use force," Senator Tom Cotton writes
"Air strike restored the US creditability"


BUT WAIT...........

In President Obama’s last year in office, the United States dropped 26,171 bombs in 7 countries.

Such "reluctance"

BUT WAIT AGAIN..we now have to fully competing alternative narratives about Assad....

Tillerson...he can stay and UNSC Ambassadors demand that he go.....

THAT was not the case under Obama.....

And all of that is now called Trump's ME FP??????

[OUTLAW 09]

Background story on the worldwide hunt for Russian hackers in general...this particular arrest has not been signaled yet in western MSM but picked up in Russian MSM...looking for the Russian link....
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article141998499.html

Was actually surprised to see Russian reports of a Russian hacker arrested for US elections hacking....

LOCATED original Russian source....

First mentioned in this Russia twitter account
Mikhail Golub‏#
@golub
Программист из Петербурга задержан в Испании по запросу США.
Не хочет русский хакер отдыхать на Байкале

Actual referenced Russian media source.
http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2017/04/09/1606078.html

Article is in Russian.....

Article is now being reported in English.....

Russian computer programmer arrested in Spain. RT claims authorities suspect connection to U.S. election hacking

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sp...-idUSKBN17B0O2

Russian hacker Petr Levashov allegedly created virus used to help Trump win, per HK-based publication

THIS may in fact be key as there is solid evidence that the large scale bot nets that drove proTrump social messaging were controlled from a central point...the how has been the puzzle we are looking for....

The New York Times
✔
@nytimes
Spain Arrests Russian Thought to Be Kingpin of Computer Spam
http://nyti.ms/2ogoS9W

[OUTLAW 09]

Tillerson says the Trump administration's war on ISIS and al-Qaeda is "coordinated somewhat with the Syrian regime."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-17-secretary-state-rex-tillerson-sen/story?id=46677381#…

So exactly just how can you then toss him out when you claim you need to coordinate with him?

[OUTLAW 09]

This answers the comments you made....

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump 10 Oct 2014
Tens of millions of dollars in airstrikes had no impact because key leaders fled after hearing ON NEWS REPORTS the strikes were coming. DUMB

The New York Times‏
Verified account
Opinion: "President Trump does not share his predecessor’s reluctance to use force," Senator Tom Cotton writes
"Air strike restored the US creditability"


BUT WAIT...........

In President Obama’s last year in office, the United States dropped 26,171 bombs in 7 countries.

Such "reluctance"

BUT WAIT AGAIN..we now have to fully competing alternative narratives about Assad....

Tillerson...he can stay and UNSC Ambassadors demand that he go.....

THAT was not the case under Obama.....

And all of that is now called Trump's ME FP??????

Tillerson isn't even going to meet with Putin in Moscow now?! Just cancel. Like saying you're going to the Vatican just to see the art.

BUT WAIT...that is apparently now the core Trump diplomacy????

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria #Hama
https://youtu.be/9sepISPro8E

[OUTLAW 09]

Increased rumblings of a coming rebel offensive against Jaish Khalid ibn al-Walid in the Yarmouk basin
https://www.enabbaladi.net/archives/142001

León Sedov Brigade—a #Trotskyist group that fought in the Siege of #Aleppo, now an #FSA Levant Front subgroup w/ ~ 100 men

[Azor]

This answers the comments you made...

...In President Obama’s last year in office, the United States dropped 26,171 bombs in 7 countries...

BUT WAIT AGAIN..we now have to fully competing alternative narratives about Assad...

Actually copying and pasting Tweets from years ago doesn't answer my questions.

I'm fully cognizant of Obama's use of airpower in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere. Yet Obama deliberately downplayed his "Overseas Contingencies Operations" because their focus on containment and attrition were completely at odds with his narrative about relations between the United States and the Muslim world: a story that he told both to the Muslims and the American electorate.

Obama lost credibility with his "red line", his "leading from behind" and his tolerance for provocations by China, Iran and Russia.

As for "competing narratives", you might want to consider how Obama's commanders - Breedlove and Harris - utterly slammed Moscow and Beijing, respectively, while Obama played "good cop". Putin and Assad are being put on notice but are also being given off-ramps.

I almost wish that you could be shown an alternative timeline wherein Clinton won the election and then disappoints you. For someone who renounced their citizenship, you sure are more concerned with politicizing American foreign policy than analyzing it. All that education and all that experience...What happened to your translations of social media reports that informed us before Reuters did? If I wanted uninformed opinions from The Guardian and CNN, I'm capable of using Google.

[OUTLAW 09]

Actually copying and pasting Tweets from years ago doesn't answer my questions.

I'm fully cognizant of Obama's use of airpower in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere. Yet Obama deliberately downplayed his "Overseas Contingencies Operations" because their focus on containment and attrition were completely at odds with his narrative about relations between the United States and the Muslim world: a story that he told both to the Muslims and the American electorate.

Obama lost credibility with his "red line", his "leading from behind" and his tolerance for provocations by China, Iran and Russia.

As for "competing narratives", you might want to consider how Obama's commanders - Breedlove and Harris - utterly slammed Moscow and Beijing, respectively, while Obama played "good cop". Putin and Assad are being put on notice but are also being given off-ramps.

I almost wish that you could be shown an alternative timeline wherein Clinton won the election and then disappoints you. For someone who renounced their citizenship, you sure are more concerned with politicizing American foreign policy than analyzing it. All that education and all that experience...What happened to your translations of social media reports that informed us before Reuters did? If I wanted uninformed opinions from The Guardian and CNN, I'm capable of using Google.

1. Concerning translations...am including more of MSM as a simple counterbalance to social media as it actually reinforces the social media side.
Thereby actually reinforcing the social media side which lately is far better informed and their analysis is far better than the entire Trump WH....and is quicker than that of MSM in getting out the narrative.

2. BTW....I am not exactly sure "what off ramps" either Russia and are China have been offered?

I see a lot of threats by both Obama and now Trump and his merry WH band of brothers BUT then when it comes to moving the threat into reality....nothing...nada..nichts....

Even the TLAM strike was so well announced in advance ...even a blind and deaf Assad/Putin would have seen/heard it coming hundreds of miles away.....

Heck they got a full two day notice...and that is an "off ramp".

I gave up my citizenship not because I wanted to but because a government that claims to be democratic was in fact taken over by a white nationalist effort led to a large degree by a massive and still ongoing Russian influence operation coupled with very good hacking...

I did not walk away...my country walked away from me....follow me on the Russian info/cyber thread and you will see what I weave together from both the Russian info/cyber side and the US alt right IE white nationalist/white supremacist side and BTW I have voted in every election since 1964 and even in VN...but that did not stop Trump and his merry WH band of white nationalists did it?

I proved my loyalty time and time again but when it was sold out no one said a word did they...except complain that the so called "Russian connections with Trump was Fake News"...

Collusion and treason are very close together....most Americans cannot define those two words when asked about them.

Lately a bulk of my work here in Berlin is tracking....discovering and watching the Russian control over extensive botnets on the social media side via the darknet...WHY...go back and check the three key US States that tipped the Trump election in the Electoral College AND then take the open source research into those Russian botnets and then tell me there was not Russian support for Trump in those key States...

Then reread the interviews of many of his voters from those same States...to a person..."we distrust fully all US MSM and get our news and information from social media and blogsites".....

AND from our research and analysis we have learned a heck of a lot in just how those same botnets are also being used in spamming/phishing to gain information for further hacks...

We have been able to now fully visualize in real time those botnets and how they drive say a twitter hashtag or push a blogsite or Instagram messaging campaign....using self developed and freeware tools developed by many on the social media side...BTW that most IT companies in the US do not use as they do not see the connections between info warfare and cyber warfare.

I do not politicize...I simply let the ground reality talk for itself and then nudge it on for someone to either accept or reject depending on one's own personal biases....

I remember once watching a German TV station in 1968 carrying a camera report by a very well known German journalist who had been in the French Foreign Legion and who had fought in VN with the French...

That single video footage of a major battle was totally at odds with what US MSM stated on that battle......

A German friend then said...let the camera tell the story.....and what we are getting out of Syria from the rebel side is never making it into MSM reporting if you notice....why is that..BECAUSE it does not match the "official narrative"...that all Muslim's are jihadists....

I some ways I am by posting here far better informed on what is ongoing on the ground in Syria than Trump and his entire NSC....what I do not get is the SIGINT....but in the end HUMINT is far better at allowing you to "understand and see"....

BTW for example how much Russian new military equipment photos not seen outside of Russia have been posted on the Ukrainian thread....how much info on Russian Spetsnaz and their equipment has been posted on both the Ukraine and Syrian threads?

Your critique is valid but my answers and postings are just as valid...just from a different point of view than most Americans have...

BTW....you did see the article posted that YES even UK citizens will now be asked to reveal their smart phone contact lists...explain postings and give up all passwords for their social media accounts? (Added by Mod) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/09/uk-tourists-to-us-may-get-asked-to-hand-in-passwords-or-be-denied-entry? (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/09/uk-tourists-to-us-may-get-asked-to-hand-in-passwords-or-be-denied-entry?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=221121&subid=10047113&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2)

WHAT does say a "white" UK citizen got to do with jihadists or being a Muslim?

BTW...this practice is ongoing now daily throughout the US being practiced by CBP and Immigration in all ports of entry into the US and practiced against non Muslim Americans......and if you do not give up your personal data you will sit for hours until you do....

AND that is democracy in action?

For me it is creping fascism with a smile...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...this story has definitely not made US MSM and why should it as most Americans do not even know what a Bitcoin is..

This open source analysis of a sudden Bitcoin flow between WikiLeaks and Russian IP addresses and individuals just right before the WikiLeaks Podesta data dump is an eye opener.....

Outside of social media and former intel analysts raising some serious red flags this story has gone nowhere....

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.....reference Russian interference in the US election

Since November 2016, over 4,000 bitcoins have been trafficked through Wikileaks blockchain account.

Assange has 20 bitcoins in his blockchain right now. Find the rest of the money.

On November 18th, 92 bitcoins were transferred. 50 BTC went here:
https://blockchain.info/address/1PJc...9tqTSH#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...not sure you would agree with this comment but it is basically true since 2008....

Russia sees war as a legitimate instrument of policy and strat-com/disinfo/propaganda/state sponsored hacking are it's weapons of choice.

For West it is a last resort and the West is not even in a counter info/cyber warfare mode.

Therein lies the core problem when dealing with Putin...

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria and Russia has still produced zero evidence they bombed a chemical weapons warehouse in Khan Sheikhoun, yet it's reported seriously.

Herein lies the effectiveness of Russian disinformation and propaganda....

Russia first claimed it was the fault of the rebels...THEN Assad absolutely did not do it all the while blocking any UNSC actions...only THEN to tell the German FM...hey we will help by the investigation JUST as they claimed to have helped in the investigation of their shot down of MH17...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...this goes to the heart of what I previously wrote....

THIS article is a "blast from the past"...go back and Google Scott Ritter from the pre invasion days of Iraq as he was part of the UN weapons inspection team....I knew him from then and he has never changed his "views" since then....

Scott Ritter's article on Khan Sheikhun proceeds on the basis of several statements that are unproven or false: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/syria-chemical-attack-al-qaeda-played-donald-trump_us_58ea226fe4b058f0a02fca4d#…?

These following comments are raised by a well known AFP French journalist who has worked this area for years and she knows the ground reality from her constant reporting from the rebel side.

NOW watch to see if this article gets picked up and passed around US MSM outside of HP...

Her comments:

On what basis does he claim Syria government responsibility for the Ghouta attack is 'largely disproven'?

Where is the evidence that Obama held off attacking after Ghouta on the basis of intel concerns rather than escalation fears?

Claims that no independent documentation of chemical attack symptoms ignore presence of journalists at scene including from @AFP

Where is the evidence that international investigations have attributed 'majority' of chemical attacks in Syria to anti-regime forces?

Additionally the piece recycles uncritically and without evidence tropes including that the White Helmets are Al-Qaeda affiliated

It also is aghast at the notion that medics in anti-regime areas could provide samples but has no qualms apparently about Russia doing so.

Questions on why regime would launch such an attack, or the wisdom of such a sudden reversal of US policy are undermined by these points.

There are of course more technical questions on how sarin or other chemicals would respond if hit in a strike. See @DanKaszeta on that.

ACTUALLY if Scott Ritter had been following one of the best social media open source analysts IE @bellingcat who alone on his own did some of the finest 2013 sarin gas attack analysis Ritter would not have been writing what he did...

It was @bellingcat that conclusively proved the use of sarin and by Assad that was in the end even accepted by US intelligence as been valid and correct...

[OUTLAW 09]

So a rebel unit of 10-20 + one TOW can defend quite large front areas.
Videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sepISPro8E#
…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHwsAeTx1Bw#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting footage from #Helfaya.
#Assad mostly sends militia group of 20-40 with one tank.
WHEN the tank bites the dust, the troops run.

Hama Battle: Central Division #TOW strike vs firing 57 mm gun on #Khattab front.

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT...not confirmed by anyone yet...

Col. Hasuri, pilot of Su-22 operating in #Shayrat Airbase & who bombed Khan Sheikhoun with #Sarin reportedly assassinated.

WHO killed him is also not known...Trump...Putin...Assad....the rebels...Iran...who knows?

Asaad Hanna‏
Verified account
#@AsaadHannaa
Breaking: the pilot Gen Mhmd Hasoury who made the chemical massacre in Khan Shaikhoun had been killed today by a bomb blast under his car

[OUTLAW 09]

W. #Aleppo: Rebels thwarted another pro-Regime assault along Al-Zahraa district - Al-Rachidin axis.

Battle: pro-Regime forces failed attack S. of #Helfaya fleeing under Jaish Al-Izza fire.

Since start of #Daraa Battle Bunian Marsous killed 158 pro-Assad (1 #Iran|ian & 9 #Hezbollah), destroyed 12 armors & seized 500+ buildings.

[OUTLAW 09]

Check this proAssad blogsite..Al masdar.

Al masdar blog, where it's writers spend the weekdays calling for chemical weapons then when used are 1st to say Assad would never do that

Syria Report from "Shayrat" airbase several days after #US missile strikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V46qgmoqsT8#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...I include often MSM as they are often used as trial balloons....so is this a Putin off ramp?

The core problem is that anything Putin agrees verbally with and or he officially signs is not in the end worth his words and or signature as he then never follows through....

So he signals privately via back channels he will do it and then gets his seat and then stays in Syria...just how do you then throw him back out?

BUT WAIT....he has already publicly declared the Syrian mission as a success and then pulled out supposedly his AF units....WAIT...never happened...

So apparently Vladimir Putin will be offered Russia's G8 seat back as incentive to give up on Assad.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/09/putin-could-allowed-rejoin-g7-pulls-syria/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Attempt by #Assad-forces to regain Ma'ardas in northern #Hama

Hama Battle: Faylaq Al-Sham shelled Mt Zin Al-Abdeen with Grad rockets.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.203410&lon=36.767464&z=13&m#

[OUTLAW 09]

Does this now mean CENTCOM will no longer fly CAS support for Russian and Assad troops as they did in Palmyra????

Russian MoD/Armed Forces TV: Russia will not conduct armed [joint] actions with the US in Syria - Ozerov
https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/status/851359077536026624#

[OUTLAW 09]

"Trump - more insane and dangerous than Obama?" ask Russian analysts with surprise

McMaster: "very destructive cycle of violence perpetuated by ISIS but also by Assad regime, Iran & Russia sponsors.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/hr-mcmaster-syria-regime-change-237038#


AND here comes the "regime change" that Trump declared he would never do....

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT...not confirmed by anyone yet...

Col. Hasuri, pilot of Su-22 operating in #Shayrat Airbase & who bombed Khan Sheikhoun with #Sarin reportedly assassinated.

WHO killed him is also not known...Trump...Putin...Assad....the rebels...Iran...who knows?

Asaad Hanna‏
Verified account
#@AsaadHannaa
Breaking: the pilot Gen Mhmd Hasoury who made the chemical massacre in Khan Shaikhoun had been killed today by a bomb blast under his car

Comment out of Ukraine.....

Everyone assumes payback by Syrian opposition. But what if Russian GRU covering tracks? No one can interview him now

[OUTLAW 09]

Visual verification of the new rebel-regime front in #Daraa's #Manshiyah district after rebel advances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W2zKn4L5jQ#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Strategic Bomber Morse Code net active on 8029 Kilohertz CW at 0920 GMT

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING....Important....

Charles Lister‏
Verified account
#@Charles_Lister 4h
4 hours ago

IMPORTANT: I’m now told by 4 well-placed sources that US *knows* #Russia was involved in the #KhanSheikhoun chemical weapons attack.

This can only be via SIGINT......intercepts....

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian rebels destroyed an #Assad regime BMP-2 west of #Aleppo with the TOW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFBXml8a-sc&feature=youtu.be#…

The #FSA uses a main battle tank as a ballistic artillery piece in #Hama province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3eZxpwRa_U#…

Russian air force Su-35, attacking #Daraa city today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXSa-nsmYeQ#…

Also today,the #Assad air force drops bombs on #Daraa city.
Mil Mi-24 in action.
AND #Russia (pic)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgE-POwJlAs#…

[Azor]

Concerning translations...am including more of MSM as a simple counterbalance to social media as it actually reinforces the social media side.

I find that these are increasingly opinion pieces pertaining to Trump rather than corroboration of events by say Reuters or AP.


2. BTW....I am not exactly sure "what off ramps" either Russia and are China have been offered?

I see a lot of threats by both Obama and now Trump and his merry WH band of brothers BUT then when it comes to moving the threat into reality....nothing...nada..nichts....

Even the TLAM strike was so well announced in advance ...even a blind and deaf Assad/Putin would have seen/heard it coming hundreds of miles away....



I was referring to Assad and Putin, not Xi. As you said, different members of the Administration are saying different things with respect to possible regime change as well as Russia’s culpability in Assad’s use of CW. This signaling is clearly intended to convey strength and the will to punish Assad further irrespective of his wishes or those of Khamenei and Putin, whilst also conveying the impression that Assad is not being targeted for removal and a recommendation that Putin cooperate on eliminating the use of CW in this war.

Trump acted. He followed through without committing himself and without losing strategic ambiguity and escalation dominance. In comparison, Obama allowed himself to be made a fool of, and compounded the error by openly seeking excuses to avoid action.

For someone who constantly reminds us of UAV surveillance and C4ISR, you seem to be ignoring the fact that the U.S. has probably been watching Shayrat Airbase for a very long time, and would have been aware of any warning given by Putin to Assad. As CrowBat noted, the remnants of the Syrian Arab Air Force were dealt a “severe blow”.


Your critique is valid but my answers and postings are just as valid...just from a different point of view than most Americans have...

I’m not attempting to invalidate your personal opinions, but I’d rather not have an important log of the Syrian Civil War be cluttered with or diluted by your distaste for the president. Thus far, the president has done more to deter Assad from committing war crimes than his predecessor ever did, and there is no guarantee that an alternate president – Hillary Clinton – would have been willing or able to intervene successfully or intervene at all.

Since George H.W. Bush’s unfortunate defeat, U.S. defense and foreign policy has been chaotic and confounding. Why Bosnia but not Rwanda? Why Kosovo but not Congo or Sudan? Why Iraq but not Iran or North Korea? Why Libya but not Syria? Why was Condoleezza rice fettered by not Albright or Clinton? Why do I want to throw my keyboard at the window writing this?

So shall we keep Syria about Syria?


The core problem is that anything Putin agrees verbally with and or he officially signs is not in the end worth his words and or signature as he then never follows through...

A legacy of Russia’s Third Revolution from 1929 to 1938. Yet we were able to prevent Uncle Joe from gobbling up Austria, Finland and Turkey, and even had him come down hard on Tito’s meddling in Greece.

To my mind, Putin wants out of Syria, which is why Assad brazenly used Sarin. This is not unlike how Sadat seized part of the Sinai in order to force the superpowers to force a resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Assad provoked an American reaction which has forced Russia to counter-react and remain engaged. Yet the assassination of Col. Hasuri is indicative of Moscow’s displeasure, as it is the same modus operandi as Moscow uses for rebel commanders in Donbas who lose the plot.

Putin’s objectives in Syria are rather limited and have been largely met, unless of course there is an attempt made to destroy the Alawi enclave either by the Sunni Arab rebel forces or as part of American-led regime change. However, both Assad and Khamenei seem determined to reconquer the rest of Syria and want Russia’s help to do so. How better to secure that than to act out in this way?

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria chemical attack looks like nerve gas – and was no accident
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2126905-syria-chemical-attack-looks-like-nerve-gas-and-was-no-accident/#.WOu3bYOtj4o.twitter#

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat......


DOD says US, coalition jets still getting painted by Syrian/Russia air defense systems & remains a concern

Likely this is a reference to a SAM engagement RADAR, a step below the mission's on-board RADAR taking over before or after launch

Syria ups air defense radars since the US strike, in attempt to 'see" incoming. US pilots can work around it all: US defense official.

Sounds like Russia has deployed Early Warning RADARs as well as the command assets to fully implement their Integrated Air Defense System

[Azor]

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM

1. "It was not our intention to make the #Syria Shayrat Airfield inoperable".

2. "We targeted fuel reserves, aircraft, and did not target chemical weapons storages".

3. "It was our intention to degrade Syrian's capability to perform chemical attacks".

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian TV: "The world's at a highly dangerous point..No one's about to declare war on the US, but we can't leave this without a response."

What if World War III was scheduled, but Russia didn't turn up?
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704101052478240-russia-us-armed-actions-syria/#

Moscow is not going to fight US troops in Syria..a senior Russian lawmaker told Sputnik.....

[Azor]

Source: https://anfenglish.com/news/ayid-qabir-village-south-of-tabqa-liberated-by-sdf-19425


The village of Ayid Qabr 3 km south of Tabqa city has been liberated from ISIS by YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who have besieged Tabqa from four sides in the Operation Wrath of Euphrates.

SDF fighters have started mop-up operations in the village after clearing it of ISIS gangs.

This would also include the Taqba Airbase that was the scene of earlier Daesh-Assad fighting years ago.

It will be interesting to see if the "Syrian Democratic Forces" engage in any ethnic cleansing here.

Raqqa is increasingly turning into a salient and possibly a cauldron if the SDF can relieve Deir-ez-Zor and close the gap.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: Mount Zayn al-Abdeen is under heavy Grad and artillery fire. I hope that Suheil al-Hassan is still there.

Hama: Shelling and heavy clashes also between #Maan and #Kawkab.

Hama Battle: clashes raging on #Maardes front while heavy Rebel shelling & clashes erupted on E. front: #Maan-#Kubariyah area.

Hama: Heavy clashes in Northern #Hama this evening. Rebels launched a counter-attack against pro-#Assad forces in #Maardas.

Hama Battle: Rebels targeting Mount Zin Al-Abdeen with heavy artillery & Grad rockets. Clashes broke out inside #Maardes (one BMP seized).

Battle for Hama has actually now started....they may not take it but they are definitely going for it....

Appears they feel the Assad forces are off balance and falling slowly apart under the heavy fighting and being stretched thin....

Rebel advance: March 21-24
Counter-offensive by pro-Regime forces: March 25 - April 3
Stabilization: since April 4

Hama Battle: Rebels counter-attacking in #Maardes. One T-72 and one 57 mm gun destroyed with #ATGM|s. Heavy clashes ongoing.

[OUTLAW 09]

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM

1. "It was not our intention to make the #Syria Shayrat Airfield inoperable".

2. "We targeted fuel reserves, aircraft, and did not target chemical weapons storages".

3. "It was our intention to degrade Syrian's capability to perform chemical attacks".

This BTW is a serious set of confused CENTCOM statements that fly in the face of airfield strike doctrine.....

1. if the airfield is associated with chemical weapons and chemicals weapons are assumed to be stored anywhere close to that airfield then targeting strike doctrine says you make all runways inoperable either with JDAMS or in the case of Block IV TLAMS you can in fact damage the runways.....a video actually showed aircraft bunker penetrations so runways damages were not a problem.......

2, if aircraft and fuel storage were targeted which they were that would not stop further chemical attacks....as it appears that the equipment needed to load chemical bombs from their storage containers was nowhere to be seen on any video since even CENTCOM says they did not hit any chemical storage sites....

3. so again what really was degraded...airfield largely operational within hours of the attack..chemical storage site not hit thus still capable to be used...

AND THEN this from today.....

Fresh satellite images show one #SyAF Su-22 and three L-39s are back in #Shayrat Airbase after #US strikes, h/t @imagesatint


So after 59 TLAMs at 1.41M per missile were fired ...base is still operational...and still has evidently a chemical storage site.

What exactly was achieved?...what were the second and third order of targeting effects????

Were they achieved and or did they fail....

Am not the only one questioning this strike.....
Trump's Syria strike changes nothing
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/04/09/trumps-strike-against-syria-doesnt-change-the-narrative/?utm_term=.d39f4d67e177#

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: Rebels destroyed 2 #Assad tanks in #Maardas, captured 1 tank and a BMP. Fierce battle ongoing.

[OUTLAW 09]

Quality Trump WH ME expertise hard at work.......

Senior Trump adviser Sebastian Gorka reportedly pitched a plan to split Libya on a napkin
http://read.bi/2oZphfC

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat...are the figures correct and are the reports that the Syrian AF has basically pulled their aircraft back to the main Russian airfield accurate????

9th April: significant drop of #SyAF activities (26 sorties) while #RuAF kept high number (128).
https://www.reddit.com/r/SyrianRebels/comments/64klwn/flying_activity_for_9_april_2017/#

Note: fighter jets, helicopters and drones included.

Syria. Overview of aerial activities last 8 days:
- #RuAF: 856 sorties (107/day) -> 65%
- #SyAF: 460 sorties (57.5/day) -> 35%.

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING....Important....

Charles Lister‏
Verified account
#@Charles_Lister 4h
4 hours ago

IMPORTANT: I’m now told by 4 well-placed sources that US *knows* #Russia was involved in the #KhanSheikhoun chemical weapons attack.

This can only be via SIGINT......intercepts....

White House says U.S. holds open possibility of more strikes in Syria.
http://reut.rs/2ojGphB

[OUTLAW 09]

Well worth reading as it goes to the current rebel offensive that is makin serious headway in Hama...

Assad Used Nerve Gas Because He’s Desperate. Expect Worse to Come.

Lost in the intense coverage of the dictator’s chemical weapons attack and Trump’s retaliatory strikes was the reason for Assad’s deadly decision.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/04/10/assad-used-nerve-gas-because-he-s-desperate-expect-worse-to-come.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...would you agree that this WH has absolutely no idea of what is going on inside Syria????

White House says containing Islamic State is greatest thing U.S. can do to provide relief to Syrian people.
http://reut.rs/2oS0fCf

Question: Why is it okay to bomb Syria but not help refugees?

Spicer: Taking action is greatest aspect of humanitarian relief we can offer.

WTHeck does this statement really mean....??

Azor...remember Trump was not going to get into the "regime change business"....?

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...remember that no fly zone.......no flying could mean no Syrian copters as they are the ones carrying out the majority of the barrel bomb attacks and have been for years....shut them down and you shut down barrel bombs...

Second time Spicer says barrel bombs attacks could trigger "further action."

Sean Spicer on Syria: "if you gas a baby, if you use a barrel bomb, you'll see a reaction from this President"

BUT the use against civilians by dropping incendiary cluster munitions...is apparently not...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...remember that no fly zone.......no flying could mean no Syrian copters as they are the ones carrying out the majority of the barrel bomb attacks and have been for years....shut them down and you shut down barrel bombs...

Second time Spicer says barrel bombs attacks could trigger "further action."

Sean Spicer on Syria: "if you gas a baby, if you use a barrel bomb, you'll see a reaction from this President"

BUT the use against civilians by dropping incendiary cluster munitions...is apparently not...

Wonder if Trump's spokesperson Spicer has seen this barrel bomb video...the next TLAM wave should then be on it's way based on his comments today....

Video showing what's described as a barrel bombing today in Syria, cc @seanspicer @realDonaldTrump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doUAdWTrDZ0#

BUT WAIT......
Assad dropped more than 16k barrel bombs in 2016 alone.

Get ready for a wild summer everyone

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia analyst Michael Kofman tells me Russia furious w/ Assad:"wd love to strangle him to death..He signed his own political death warrant"

Russia is seriously trying to distance themselves from this latest chemical attack.....although SecDef Mattis stated yes the Russians were directly involved....

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: Rebels have killed an #Afghan commander of the #Iran|ian Liwa Fatemiyoun militia in Northern #Hama.

[Azor]

Russia analyst Michael Kofman tells me Russia furious w/ Assad:"wd love to strangle him to death...He signed his own political death warrant".

Kofman's an astute Russia hand. Where is your source for this?

[Azor]

1. if the airfield is associated with chemical weapons and chemicals weapons are assumed to be stored anywhere close to that airfield then targeting strike doctrine says you make all runways inoperable either with JDAMS or in the case of Block IV TLAMS you can in fact damage the runways....a video actually showed aircraft bunker penetrations so runways damages were not a problem...

The Tomahawk is not an anti-runway weapon, and I have never heard of it being used in that role, even with the BLU-97/B warhead. Yes, some of the missiles created a few craters at Shayrat, but anti-runway penetration bombs (such as the Matra Durandal) would be required to disable the runways, delivered of course by fixed-wing aircraft. I don’t see how you can conflate punching through a hardened aircraft shelter with burrowing underneath and tearing up a runway. They are very different effects.


2, if aircraft and fuel storage were targeted which they were that would not stop further chemical attacks...as it appears that the equipment needed to load chemical bombs from their storage containers was nowhere to be seen on any video since even CENTCOM says they did not hit any chemical storage sites...

The objectives were to punish Assad and to “degrade” his ability to launch CW attacks, thereby deterring further such atrocities, not to destroy his ability to do so.

As for Assad’s chemical weapons, they would be the most secure part of his arsenal. Attacking their storage directly could result in their capture by other factions, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, and/or possibly the release of CW agents.


3. so again what really was degraded...airfield largely operational within hours of the attack…chemical storage site not hit thus still capable to be used...

Ask CrowBat ;)

Did you imagine that the U.S. would commence an intermittent air campaign to keep Shayrat disabled whilst Assad rebuilds the runways and Putin fortifies the base with air defenses?


What exactly was achieved?

A signal to Putin, Khamenei, Xi and Kim, as much as Assad. As for Assad, it remains to be seen whether he will dare to use Sarin again.

RE: Signaling to Assad

With respect to the “further action” and references to “barrel bombs”, it is clear that Washington is looking to deter Assad from terrorizing Syrian civilians, which is: (a) the best recruitment tool for Al Qaeda and Daesh; and (b) the primary reason for Syrian refugees. Washington clearly wants to both deter Assad and avoid providing “red lines” that he and his sponsors can challenge.

[Azor]

From Interfax: https://twitter.com/interfax_news/status/851526348631920640


Russian Federation Council member says Russia will not intercept a US missile strike on Syria, but Syria has the right to do so.

[Azor]

https://twitter.com/AndrewBeatty

1.
Confirmed - Spicer's barrel bomb red line referred to barrel bombs containing industrial chemicals like chlorine.

2.
White House further walking back Spicer's 'barrel bomb' red line, saying "nothing has changed in our posture."

So the "red line" will be Assad's use of CW. However, the reference to chlorine gas and "industrial chemicals" is troublesome given their ease of production and the difficulty in attributing blame for their use.

[OUTLAW 09]

Kofman's an astute Russia hand. Where is your source for this?

It came from a Russian FB...VK comment that I caught but did not screen shot and it was deleted 15 minutes later...

I tend to follow a key number of VK accounts...he has in the past stated a few accurate comments on Ukraine.

[OUTLAW 09]

The Tomahawk is not an anti-runway weapon, and I have never heard of it being used in that role, even with the BLU-97/B warhead. Yes, some of the missiles created a few craters at Shayrat, but anti-runway penetration bombs (such as the Matra Durandal) would be required to disable the runways, delivered of course by fixed-wing aircraft. I don’t see how you can conflate punching through a hardened aircraft shelter with burrowing underneath and tearing up a runway. They are very different effects.



The objectives were to punish Assad and to “degrade” his ability to launch CW attacks, thereby deterring further such atrocities, not to destroy his ability to do so.

As for Assad’s chemical weapons, they would be the most secure part of his arsenal. Attacking their storage directly could result in their capture by other factions, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, and/or possibly the release of CW agents.



Ask CrowBat ;)

Did you imagine that the U.S. would commence an intermittent air campaign to keep Shayrat disabled whilst Assad rebuilds the runways and Putin fortifies the base with air defenses?



A signal to Putin, Khamenei, Xi and Kim, as much as Assad. As for Assad, it remains to be seen whether he will dare to use Sarin again.

RE: Signaling to Assad

With respect to the “further action” and references to “barrel bombs”, it is clear that Washington is looking to deter Assad from terrorizing Syrian civilians, which is: (a) the best recruitment tool for Al Qaeda and Daesh; and (b) the primary reason for Syrian refugees. Washington clearly wants to both deter Assad and avoid providing “red lines” that he and his sponsors can challenge.

1. the TLAM carries a large enough warhead to damage any runway anywhere in the world..if you say the numerous videos of the aircraft hangers one roof of at least two meters of reinforced concrete was completely punched through and then detonated...

2. what is actually worrying is the constant comment that there was a chemical depot and it was not touched...exactly as in Libya so the depot was actually a chemical depot...so why not release evidence that led them to that conclusion

3. anyone tracking this thread thoroughly knows the death bringer among civilians has always been barrel bombs..why not simply TLAM the only factory that the rebels tried to capture but could not....it is that simple and also usually a number of copters used to drop them are located near the factory

4. the use of the word "degrade" is a farce..."degrade" means partially damaged..capable of regeneration in a short period...the regeneration phase needs to be determined during the targeting phase.....so why not simply destroy because if the political realm changes you might not get a second chance...example if I sabotage key rail line switches I need to destroy 10% of them as railroads keep a set amount of switches in reserve...but for the moment until I destroy a total of 10% I have "degraded that line"....?

5. there was no chance that IS or AQ could have gotten anywhere close to the base if in fact the chemical depot had been attacked....

The aircraft numbers previously posted are accurate CrowBat does not need to confirm....

BTW...one strike is not a "FP"....one needs a very well thought through strategic strategy...which was completely lacking in Obama WH as well....

This strike was a tactical move to relieve pressure from his Russian connections investigation and to pull up his poll numbers which did not happen...numbers are flat after the strike...his alt right ran from him and the core Russian election hacker was arrested in Barcelona.

Was simply Wag the Dog v2.0....

[OUTLAW 09]

Notice even the Iranians understand the fire Putin is playing with and back away ...

Iran joins Russia in denouncing U.S. missile strike, but does not go the extra step.
http://nyti.ms/2oStTHB

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Bad situation for the pro-#Assad forces in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa. All the #Assad propaganda doesn't help.

Daraa: A long rebel tour through liberated areas in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TE5CzT4WtA#

[OUTLAW 09]

https://twitter.com/AndrewBeatty

1.

2.

So the "red line" will be Assad's use of CW. However, the reference to chlorine gas and "industrial chemicals" is troublesome given their ease of production and the difficulty in attributing blame for their use.


Trump admin still incredibly sloppy w/ language.

Did Spicer really mean to say Trump will prevent barrel bomb attacks or was he ad-libbing?

Both Trump and Spicer have yet to learn one of the most important points in being President and spokesperson.....

Word usage is important...extremely important....use them wisely....

[OUTLAW 09]

One of the best social media open source analysts going.....

The Khan Sheikhoun Chemical Attack — Who Bombed What and When? via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/04/10/khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack-bombed/#

[OUTLAW 09]

RuAF fighter jets are flying over Taftanaz town, Idlib
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Fn2ANHNw78#

This attack happened yesterday evening......
New video shows #Kremlin regime air force Su-35 high tech fighter aircraft dropping #ClusterBombs on #Daraa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5ehZWaskQQ#…

Syria's #Idlib province this morning.
#Russia attacks #Taftanaz w/ Su-34
#Iran supplies #Fuah & #Kefraya w/ Iranian AF C-130

New #ClusterBomb air strikes on #Lataminah today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl-PbngVSGc#…

Russia's Su-34 bombed #Saraqib in #Idlib province once again today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L5RjMd-1Zs#…

[OUTLAW 09]

The Associated Press‏
Verified account
#BREAKING: Senior U.S. official says U.S. has concluded that Russia knew in advance of Syria's chemical weapons attack last week.

[OUTLAW 09]

Charles Lister‏
Verified account
#@Charles_Lister
My take on how #Syria’s opposition has reacted to America’s cruise missile strikes, so far:

http://www.mei.edu/content/article/aftermath-us-airstrikes-syria-monday-briefing#…

[OUTLAW 09]

The debate over what to do in #Syria between advocates of doing more & opponents can be a little silly.

A simple rendition, here:

BUT in the end ....
Some US Syria analysts defiantly insist that the West cannot/should not try to help push the crisis towards conditions amenable to an overall political settlement which excludes Iran and Russia....

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle Orton‏
Verified account
#"The West’s Inconsistent Approach To Foreign Fighters in Syria". Thanks to @fordrs58 for input.
https://goo.gl/QmCoQZ

IMPORTANT as it goes to the simple that Putin lied to both the Us and the UNSC WHEN they officially stated all Assad CWs were out of Syria.....

Gen. Zaher al-Sakat, former head of #Assad's chemical weapons program, says he knew CWMD retained after 2013 "deal".
http://fxn.ws/2o0INYd

He fled Syria in 2013....right after the 2013 sarin attack....

[OUTLAW 09]

One of Russia's main social media trolls....in action...tied heavily into GRU...

BREAKING #GRU InfoOp #Kots has been quickly deployed to Shairat aviation base in Syria to assess Tomahawks volley BDA.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express.......

Ship of Interest

Ship of Interest: Coming from Novorossiysk, Panama flag Ro-Ro Varyag transits Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria

She was just recently inbound...quick turnaround....Russia must be low on logistics with the ongoing heavy rebel offensives....

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria's own Syrian Express...


From #Latakia, #Syria Gov. owned Gen. Auth for Maritime Transport SYRIAMAR 's flag cargo vessel Souria transits BlackSea-bound Bosphorus

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Footage: #Russia'n troops in #Aleppo city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NQn9LgDfxI#

Syria #Idlib Iran'i C130 aircraft parachute supplies into Fuah/Kefraya pocket
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.989396&lon=36.704636&z=13&m=b#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nH7X8isFU4#

[OUTLAW 09]

Merkel speaks to Trump on Syria, urges him to work through UN. None of the usual "the two agreed..."

[OUTLAW 09]

THIs narrative gets weirder and weirder...stated Russia knew of the chemical weapons BUT did not know about the attack???

Especially when the pilot associated with the attack had carried out a previous chemical attack....from an airfield that had a strong Russian presence on it....

Interesting if confirmed that the Russian "knew about the CWs"...WHICH they had in 2013 stated were all gone...if they knew then why did they continue to allow them to be stored instead of removing them...??

White House: “No U.S. Intelligence Community consensus that Russia had foreknowledge of the Syrian chemical attack.”
http://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/328165-us-determines-russia-knew-of-chemical-weapons#

THEN an AP report this morning quoting unnamed intel sources...YES Russia knew of the coming chemical attack BUT no solid evidence that they participated in the planning and deployment of CWs...

Turkey: The Syrian government still has chemical weapons capacity
http://read.bi/2p0eJj4

[OUTLAW 09]

FIRST serious consequences for the Trump TLAM strike...

Cossacks regret earlier decision giving Trump honorary status. 'It was a mistake.' So, Trump is no longer a Cossack.
https://govoritmoskva.ru/news/116324/

Having to give back that big furry hat must have hurt his ego....

[OUTLAW 09]

You have to give credit where credit is due to the IS business efforts.....first oil deals in Syria with Assad and Russia and now wheat in Iraq......

ًWell, this is embarrassing: Iraqi govt admits it bought 600 tons of imported wheat from IS at inflated prices.
http://babil24.com/ar/details.aspx?
Sorry in Arabic.....link takes you to the main page...

[OUTLAW 09]

SYRIA: Faylaq al-Sham destroy government BMP with TOW missile near the town of Zahraa.

[OUTLAW 09]

So is Putin signaling they will have to deal with the daughter and not Trump himself in the future????

Kremlin spox Peskov says Ivanka Trump influenced father in question of missile strike on Syria

[CrowBat]

CrowBat...are the figures correct and are the reports that the Syrian AF has basically pulled their aircraft back to the main Russian airfield accurate????

9th April: significant drop of #SyAF activities (26 sorties) while #RuAF kept high number (128).
https://www.reddit.com/r/SyrianRebels/comments/64klwn/flying_activity_for_9_april_2017/#

Note: fighter jets, helicopters and drones included.

Syria. Overview of aerial activities last 8 days:
- #RuAF: 856 sorties (107/day) -> 65%
- #SyAF: 460 sorties (57.5/day) -> 35%.
Can only say, 'yes' - and that because all of this is based on my own statistics, i.e. figures I've compiled and published, as follows:

- Air Strikes by VKS (and a lil bit by SyAAF), 9 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-and-a-lil-bit-by-syaaf-8-april-2017-b6376e2efa5d)

- Air Strikes by VKS (and a lil bit by SyAAF), 8 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-8-april-2017-78da207f60a1)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 7 April, UPDATE (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-7-april-2017-update-e5c2c63a394f)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 6 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-6-april-2017-8782611114bd)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 5 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-5-april-2017-23b8f8e22c)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 4 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-4-5-april-2017-4be0109ae104)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 2 and 3 April 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-2-3-april-2017-f98b9ae7c982)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 28 and 29 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-28-29-march-2017-95a8c67b5661)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 26 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-26-march-2017-aa49a5c415b2)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 25 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-25-march-2017-5b25a8a0239b)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 24 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-24-march-2017-ec06cd506525)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 23 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-23-march-2017-6ea6c72a409e)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 22 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-22-march-2017-8e10078fd40d)

- Air Strikes on Northern Hama, 21 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-in-northern-hama-21-march-2017-a72f6e087de0)

- Air Strikes in Khan Sheikhoun — Kfar Zita — Latamina area, 16 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-in-khan-sheikhoun-kfar-zita-latamina-area-16-march-2017-abbfd865f67b)

Ah yes, and the newest issue - covering yesterday - is meanwhile available too: Air Strikes by VKS and SyAAF, 10 April 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-10-april-2017-8a25fe14a404).

[CrowBat]

CrowBat......


DOD says US, coalition jets still getting painted by Syrian/Russia air defense systems & remains a concern

Likely this is a reference to a SAM engagement RADAR, a step below the mission's on-board RADAR taking over before or after launch

Syria ups air defense radars since the US strike, in attempt to 'see" incoming. US pilots can work around it all: US defense official.

Sounds like Russia has deployed Early Warning RADARs as well as the command assets to fully implement their Integrated Air Defense SystemNo surprise: Russians are currently mad about everybody.

About themselves, for their stupid support for Assad, including deliveries of Russian-made, OBAS-250-235 (or HAB-250 bombs) filled with Sarin (https://twitter.com/noclador/status/851133489013567489).

(The weapon is made of plastic because Sarin is highly corrosive. According to Russian CW-disarmament specialists (https://twitter.com/RPeldito/status/851179246273921029) last stocks of such weapons in Russia were destroyed in 2015.

BTW, deployment of a calibre 250kg bomb confirms what my sources said in this regards.)

About 'Assad' - because he deployed these bombs.

About Americans - because these didn't do anything for six years, then elected a pres the Russians like, and this pres then ordered a TLAM-strike that's in perfect agreement with the UNSRC 2118, which in turn was brought in agreement with Russia... (simple love this one!)

About themselves - because their S-400s couldn't shot down even one of 59 TLAMs that passed within less than 30 kilometres of their position near Lattakia...

And about everybody else - because people were as stupid as to buy Russian PRBS about all of their famed weapons, and military superiority and war against terrorism and whatever else....

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Names of #Assad forces who were confirmed killed by rebels between 8th & 10th April in #Manshiyah District.

[CrowBat]

https://twitter.com/CENTCOMAre they all heavily drunk or on dope, there in Tampa, Fl.? Or commanded by their 4-6-years-young kids?


1. "It was not our intention to make the #Syria Shayrat Airfield inoperable"....but that's why you knocked out 15 hardened aircraft shelters (about 50% of all those at Shayrat), all the ammo and fuel dumps - plus the SAM-site responsible for protection of that air base...?


2. "We targeted fuel reserves, aircraft, and did not target chemical weapons storages".Why were then seven ammo dumps targeted?

Because Assadists are simply pilling most of their weapons right next to their aircraft...?


3. "It was our intention to degrade Syrian's capability to perform chemical attacks".If so, then you should've hit Hama and as-Safira you clueless dumbasses.

Namely, and just for example: Shayrat AB was the staging point for precisely 2 sorties that saw deployment of CWs in the last six months. These were the two sorties flown by two Su-22s that hit Khan Sheykhoun, on the morning of 7 April.

All the other 100+ sorties that saw widespread and systematic - indeed: coordinated deployment of chemical weapons in Aleppo (https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/02/13/syria-coordinated-chemical-attacks-aleppo) were flown by helicopters from Hama and as-Safira.

But, 'you' wrecked Shayrat instead...? :D nah, sorry, that emoticon is not enough: :rolleyes: :D :p

[OUTLAW 09]

Can only say, 'yes' - and that because all of this is based on my own statistics, i.e. figures I've compiled and published, as follows:

- Air Strikes by VKS (and a lil bit by SyAAF), 9 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-and-a-lil-bit-by-syaaf-8-april-2017-b6376e2efa5d)

- Air Strikes by VKS (and a lil bit by SyAAF), 8 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-8-april-2017-78da207f60a1)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 7 April, UPDATE (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-7-april-2017-update-e5c2c63a394f)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 6 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-6-april-2017-8782611114bd)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 5 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-5-april-2017-23b8f8e22c)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 4 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-4-5-april-2017-4be0109ae104)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 2 and 3 April 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-2-3-april-2017-f98b9ae7c982)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 28 and 29 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-28-29-march-2017-95a8c67b5661)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 26 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-26-march-2017-aa49a5c415b2)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 25 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-25-march-2017-5b25a8a0239b)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 24 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-24-march-2017-ec06cd506525)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 23 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-23-march-2017-6ea6c72a409e)

- Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 22 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-22-march-2017-8e10078fd40d)

- Air Strikes on Northern Hama, 21 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-in-northern-hama-21-march-2017-a72f6e087de0)

- Air Strikes in Khan Sheikhoun — Kfar Zita — Latamina area, 16 March 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-in-khan-sheikhoun-kfar-zita-latamina-area-16-march-2017-abbfd865f67b)

Ah yes, and the newest issue - covering yesterday - is meanwhile available too: Air Strikes by VKS and SyAAF, 10 April 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-10-april-2017-8a25fe14a404).

Tongue 'n cheek....I knew it was your work....no need to officially request verification as your work literally speaks for itself.....I was just wanting to get 300% confirmation the numbers were correct.....for other thoughts I had

Great work as always....

[CrowBat]

Kyle Orton‏
Verified account
#"The West’s Inconsistent Approach To Foreign Fighters in Syria". Thanks to @fordrs58 for input.
https://goo.gl/QmCoQZ
I see you caught this one (too). Another great feature by Orton - although this time it seems his patriotic side 'won the day': he wouldn't call the USA the primary culprit in the 'Western' support for the Marxist terrorists of the PKK.

By doing that, and in the wake of providing support for such terrorist organization like the Iranian MEK/MKO, in Iraq back of the 2000s, the USA are definitely going below all acceptable standards - and joining the club of such exclusive terror-supporters like Assad-Regime, the IRGC, and Russians.

Another point in this regards: considering who exactly is fighting 'for them' in northern Hama, it's absolutely no surprise the Assadists are as nervous as to launch CW-attacks on places like Khan Sheykhoun.

Namely, 'units' so happily declared 'SAA' and 'NDF' by all possible fans of mass-murderers on Twitter, Facebook and elsewhere around the social media wear designations like:

- 'Elite Salah Assi Troops'

- 'Qalid ad-Daher Group'

- 'Tribal Force'

- 'Ariha's Leopards'

- 'Idlib's Lopards'

- 'Jibreen's Leopards'....

All are actually nothing else but armed militias of local warlords, who stubbornly refuse to cooperate with whatever was left of the General Staff of the Syrian 'Arab' Army, Russians, Assad, and even the Air Force and Military Intelligence.

The last few days, things became so bad, that when Russians brought Maher al-Assad's 4th Division from Eastern Ghouta to Northern Hama, the warlords refused to cooperate with this: Maher's 'crack elite super-turbo' troops (renown for their IKEA-armoured T-72s) thus ended idling around a useless piece of frontline opposite to Kfar Naboudah, west of the Kfar Zita salient.

Ditto in regards of Hezbollah (Lebanon): this deployed one of its crack brigades to northern Hama, but the warlords said 'nyet'. Facit: Hezbollah is now terrorising Christians in Mhradeh (Christian town on the western side of the Kfar Zita salient) - instead of 'fighting terrorists' (i.e. the FSyA) further north and east.

Instead, the warlords prefer to cooperate with the IRGC only, and maintain 'independence' of their 'SAA' and 'NDF' militias. And all the Twitter is cheering them! So much so, I guess, if I travel there, they would announce the arrival of 'Vienna's Leopards - Elite Troops of the People's Liberation Army of the Democratic Kingdom of Shnurliland'. :D

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin expects another fake gas attack organized by naturally the US as always....



President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia had information that the United States was planning to launch new missile strikes on Syria, and that there were plans to fake chemicals weapons attacks there.
Putin was speaking hours before U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was due to arrive in Moscow for talks with Russia's foreign minister and days after denouncing last week's U.S. missile strike on a Syrian air base as illegal.
Standing alongside Italian President Sergio Mattarella who was in Moscow for talks, Putin, when asked by a reporter if he expected more U.S. missile strikes on Syria, said:
"We have information that a similar provocation is being prepared ... in other parts of Syria including in the southern Damascus suburbs where they are planning to again plant some substance and accuse the Syrian authorities of using (chemical weapons)."
He did not offer any proof for that assertion.
Russia has defended the Syrian government, a staunch ally, against U.S. allegations it was behind the nerve gas attack in Syria's Idlib province last week which killed scores, saying there is no evidence to underpin such an allegation.
Putin said on Tuesday Russia would be urgently asking the global chemical weapons watchdog -- the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons -- to investigate the incident.
Speaking after Tillerson said earlier on Tuesday he hoped Russia would conclude it was wrong to align itself with the Syrian government, Putin said Moscow would tolerate Western criticism of its role in Syria but hoped that attitudes would eventually soften.

[OUTLAW 09]

WHITE HOUSE: 'It's clear the Russians are trying to cover up what happened' in Syria
http://read.bi/2p25TkX

AFP news agency
✔
@AFP
#BREAKING US investigating possible Russia collusion in Syria chemical attack

Putin Calls for Investigations of Chemical Attack in Syria | Human Rights Watch
https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/04/11/putin-calls-investigations-chemical-attack-syria#


Tap dance...tap dance...tap dance....this morning Russian MoD claimed they flew in chemical investigation team...then by noon they wanted the UN.....they are doing everything possible to simply delay...delay...delay.....

Same exact drill they pulled off after their shot down of MH17...first claiming there needed to be an international investigation THEN not even allowing the Dutch recovery team into eastern Ukraine for days...

[Azor]

the TLAM carries a large enough warhead to damage any runway anywhere in the world…if you say the numerous videos of the aircraft hangers one roof of at least two meters of reinforced concrete was completely punched through and then detonated...

I saw the videos including at least one crater in a runway or taxiway. It is not enough to simply create a hole and scatter debris; holes can be filled and debris cleared. What is required is penetration of the surface, a delayed explosion that buckles the surface and disruption of the concrete slaps that comprise the runway’s foundation. Tomahawks don’t do this. The Matra Durandal does, and the now-retired JP233 also scattered land mines around the damaged area to make repair hazardous. But these anti-runway weapons are only deliverable by fixed-wing aircraft, which were decided against.

For the final time, it would be ludicrous to get into a pissing contest with Assad over whether he can repair the runways faster than the U.S. can damage them.


what is actually worrying is the constant comment that there was a chemical depot and it was not touched...exactly as in Libya so the depot was actually a chemical depot...so why not release evidence that led them to that conclusion

I doubt that the U.S. would want to cause a release of chemical weapons or render them insecure any then vulnerable to capture by terrorists. Perhaps Shayrat only stored CW for the mission on April 7, or perhaps the U.S. allowed Assad to retrieve the CW prior to the strike. Disarming Assad of all CW would be a major task, requiring a serious air campaign as well as generous use of special forces on the ground. Given the complexity and danger of Syria, it is preferable to have Assad keep the existing CW secure but not use them.


anyone tracking this thread thoroughly knows the death bringer among civilians has always been barrel bombs..why not simply TLAM the only factory that the rebels tried to capture but could not....it is that simple and also usually a number of copters used to drop them are located near the factory

True, but the objective was to specifically deter the further use of CW.


the use of the word "degrade" is a farce..."degrade" means partially damaged…capable of regeneration in a short period...the regeneration phase needs to be determined during the targeting phase...so why not simply destroy because if the political realm changes you might not get a second chance...example if I sabotage key rail line switches I need to destroy 10% of them as railroads keep a set amount of switches in reserve...but for the moment until I destroy a total of 10% I have "degraded that line"...

Your disappointment that the airstrike did not go far enough is noted.


there was no chance that IS or AQ could have gotten anywhere close to the base if in fact the chemical depot had been attacked...

Nevertheless, I have not seen a CW contingency plan that does not involve air supremacy and the insertion of special forces. That commitment was not on the table.


The aircraft numbers previously posted are accurate CrowBat does not need to confirm...BTW...one strike is not a "FP"....one needs a very well thought through strategic strategy...which was completely lacking in Obama WH as well...

It is more of a foreign policy than the preceding president ever had with regard to Syria. In some respects it is the result of a failure of that president to negotiate a proper deal over Assad’s CW in 2013.


Did Spicer really mean to say Trump will prevent barrel bomb attacks or was he ad-libbing?

No, they walked it back. But the use of chlorine gas and “industrial chemicals” are now red lines.

[Azor]

...you should've hit Hama and as-Safira you clueless dumbasses.

If the SyAAF uses chlorine or other "industrial chemicals" on civilians, it will be struck again. At least something is being done, and the response was within 48 hours, whereas in 2013, Obama approached Congress after 10 days had passed.


About themselves - because their S-400s couldn't shot down even one of 59 TLAMs that passed within less than 30 kilometres of their position near Lattakia...

According to you, we'll never know if the S-400 could have shot down some or all of the TLAMs. Not that Putin looks good by any measure as either his military technology doesn't work, or he isn't willing to defend his "allies".

Here are the results thus far:


20% of the remaining SyAAF aircraft are destroyed
The Russian Federation Council declares that Russia will not defend Syrian airspace from the U.S.
The lead pilot of the Sarin attack is assassinated
All this in under one week

[Azor]

ITALY

Italy's President Sergio Mattarella urged Russia on Tuesday to use its influence with Syria to thwart any more chemical weapons attacks there. "We call on everyone, Moscow like everyone, to use their influence to avoid that such attacks are repeated," Mattarella said at a news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

RUSSIA

Moscow continues to publicly double-down with claims that:


Assad has no chemical weapons
Last week's Sarin atrocity was a false flag
They welcome a UN investigation
The U.S. is using this false flag attack as a pretext to overthrow Assad


I regard these merely as attempts to save face.

[OUTLAW 09]

I saw the videos including at least one crater in a runway or taxiway. It is not enough to simply create a hole and scatter debris; holes can be filled and debris cleared. What is required is penetration of the surface, a delayed explosion that buckles the surface and disruption of the concrete slaps that comprise the runway’s foundation. Tomahawks don’t do this. The Matra Durandal does, and the now-retired JP233 also scattered land mines around the damaged area to make repair hazardous. But these anti-runway weapons are only deliverable by fixed-wing aircraft, which were decided against.

For the final time, it would be ludicrous to get into a pissing contest with Assad over whether he can repair the runways faster than the U.S. can damage them.



I doubt that the U.S. would want to cause a release of chemical weapons or render them insecure any then vulnerable to capture by terrorists. Perhaps Shayrat only stored CW for the mission on April 7, or perhaps the U.S. allowed Assad to retrieve the CW prior to the strike. Disarming Assad of all CW would be a major task, requiring a serious air campaign as well as generous use of special forces on the ground. Given the complexity and danger of Syria, it is preferable to have Assad keep the existing CW secure but not use them.



True, but the objective was to specifically deter the further use of CW.



Your disappointment that the airstrike did not go far enough is noted.



Nevertheless, I have not seen a CW contingency plan that does not involve air supremacy and the insertion of special forces. That commitment was not on the table.



It is more of a foreign policy than the preceding president ever had with regard to Syria. In some respects it is the result of a failure of that president to negotiate a proper deal over Assad’s CW in 2013.



No, they walked it back. But the use of chlorine gas and “industrial chemicals” are now red lines.

1. punching through six feet of really reinforced rebar concrete is not a small feat....

2. BUT WAIT....Assad was already completely disarmed as declared by the Russians by themselves in the UNSC and to Obama

REMEMBER the Russians did not allow anyone else to remove the CWs in 2013...so Obama had to go on what they stated and what the IC felt were the actual amounts held by Assad....which was anyone's guess even the Israeli's were not exactly sure what he truly had.

3. if one leaves the chemical weapons bunker intact then one can always attack again using CWs......I still have not seen solid US evidence that in fact the non hit bunker actually contained sarin.....

BUT we hear a lot of the US stating publicly the Russians colluded in the planning and carrying out the attack so in fact it appears the US is satisfied they know that it exists...

If the Syrian Army has "no chemical weapons at all", doesn't that imply they must have been Russian?!
http://tass.com/defense/940748

Sarin gas traces detected in blood, urine of Syria attack victims: Turkish health minister

[Azor]

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/11-april-sdf-has-taken-control-of-the-raqqadamascus-road

Expect the prices of various commodities, including oil, to skyrocket in Damascus. But I thought that Turkey was the beneficiary of trade with Daesh? ;)

[OUTLAW 09]

Is Eric Trump implying that decision to launch airstrikes was motivated by desire to 'prove' no ties to Russia?
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/eric-trump-says-syria-strike-was-swayed-heartbroken-ivanka-n745021?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma#

Asked abt this comment by Eric Trump, Sean Spicer said Trump's actions make it clear that there are "no so-called backchannels to Russia

[Azor]

punching through six feet of really reinforced rebar concrete is not a small feat...

Yes. It worked very well on hardened aircraft shelters (PLAAF take note!), but it's the wrong tool for wrecking runways. Keeping Shayrat offline would be inviting an open-ended campaign against Assad and possibly Khamenei and Putin.


BUT WAIT...Assad was already completely disarmed as declared by the Russians by themselves in the UNSC and to Obama...REMEMBER the Russians did not allow anyone else to remove the CWs in 2013...so Obama had to go on what they stated and what the IC felt were the actual amounts held by Assad...which was anyone's guess even the Israeli's were not exactly sure what he truly had.

Absolutely. Which is why Russia is being shamed, because they would have known as well that Assad either retained some Sarin for future use, or was producing Sarin again after the deal.

As for Obama, he negotiated a bad deal plain and simple. Obama's deals with Russia over Syrian chemical weapons and with Iran over its nuclear weapons seem about as solid as the Paris Peace Accords of 1973. Increasingly, I believe that Obama and Kerry are just as cynical as Nixon and Kissinger were.

After all, if Iran wasn't put on a pedestal in order to agree to a deal to abide by a treaty that they had already signed, would there be ongoing sectarian civil wars in Iraq and Syria, with the Revolutionary Guards and hordes of mercenaries tending to the fires?


if one leaves the chemical weapons bunker intact then one can always attack again using CWs...I still have not seen solid US evidence that in fact the non hit bunker actually contained sarin....

I highly doubt that Shayrat contained Sarin when attacked. It is obvious that it did contain Sarin, which perhaps was expended during the strike or removed to a safer location.


BUT we hear a lot of the US stating publicly the Russian colluded in the planning and carrying out the attack so in fact it appears the US is satisfied they know that it exists...

I think that is part of a flurry of diplomatic blows that the U.S. is delivering in order to drive a deeper wedge between Assad and Putin, and to punish Putin for not enforcing his end of the 2013 deal.

[OUTLAW 09]

As tensions mount, Russian army calls drills across all 26 zones of its Western Military District
http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12118284@egNews#

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #HTS & #Ahrar_Al_Sham repelled the #Assad regime attacks today. #Ahrar_Al_Sham has killed 23 pro-#Assad forces, no details by #HTS.

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes. It worked very well on hardened aircraft shelters (PLAAF take note!), but it's the wrong tool for wrecking runways. Keeping Shayrat offline would be inviting an open-ended campaign against Assad and possibly Khamenei and Putin.



Absolutely. Which is why Russia is being shamed, because they would have known as well that Assad either retained some Sarin for future use, or was producing Sarin again after the deal.

As for Obama, he negotiated a bad deal plain and simple. Obama's deals with Russia over Syrian chemical weapons and with Iran over its nuclear weapons seem about as solid as the Paris Peace Accords of 1973. Increasingly, I believe that Obama and Kerry are just as cynical as Nixon and Kissinger were.

After all, if Iran wasn't put on a pedestal in order to agree to a deal to abide by a treaty that they had already signed, would there be ongoing sectarian civil wars in Iraq and Syria, with the Revolutionary Guards and hordes of mercenaries tending to the fires?



I highly doubt that Shayrat contained Sarin when attacked. It is obvious that it did contain Sarin, which perhaps was expended during the strike or removed to a safer location.



I think that is part of a flurry of diplomatic blows that the U.S. is delivering in order to drive a deeper wedge between Assad and Putin, and to punish Putin for not enforcing his end of the 2013 deal.

But here is the problem...Russian will never sell out Assad..regardless of how hard the US tries as they do not understand Putin's drivers as Putin has achieved what he set out to do....

BTW...check this.....

Mattis: those stories about Syria using runway after strike were nonsense propaganda to cover up extensive damage
http://buff.ly/2nBsk0l

Yesterday social media analysts confirmed that the photo released of the plane taking off was actually from 2007......as the buildings in the photo are no longer there BUT were there in 2007...

[Azor]

But here ss the problem...Russian will never sell out Assad..regardless of how hard the US tries as they do not understand Putin's drivers as Putin has achieved what he set out to do...

But will Putin aid Assad and therefore Khamenei in reconquering all of Syria? That's what Assad and Khamenei want, but Putin seems satisfied with Assad ruling over an Alawi enclave centered on Latakia and retaining its basing rights.

[Azor]

BTW...check this.....

Mattis: those stories about Syria using runway after strike were nonsense propaganda to cover up extensive damage
http://buff.ly/2nBsk0l

Yesterday social media analysts confirmed that the photo released of the plane taking off was actually from 2007......as the buildings in the photo are no longer there BUT were there in 2007...

Interesting. CrowBat mentioned something similar in his update (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-7-april-2017-update-e5c2c63a394f):


A Su-22 lifted off from Dmeyr AB and bombed the Khan Sheykhoun area. This was probably the aircraft that can be seen on the video, claimed to be showing a Su-22 taking-off from Shayrat AB following the airstrike

CrowBat also noted:


...attacking runways with TLAMs would be pointless; one would at least a dozen to destroy just one of two runways. Such job is better done by B-1s and Mk.82s, just for example (or B-2s and JDAMs)...

[CrowBat]

If the SyAAF uses chlorine or other "industrial chemicals" on civilians, it will be struck again. At least something is being done, and the response was within 48 hours, whereas in 2013, Obama approached Congress after 10 days had passed.Yup, at least something.

I got really beasty in that case then, just 1 such strike back in 2012 or 2013, could've changed so much - and saved so many lives.


According to you, we'll never know if the S-400 could have shot down some or all of the TLAMs. Not that Putin looks good by any measure as either his military technology doesn't work, or he isn't willing to defend his "allies".They couldn't. Not only that - despite the warning - they were still caught by their pants down; but, they knew they were wrong, caught red-handed, and they were left with too little time to find an excuse to open fire (at Tomahawks). Besides, even if they would have opened fire, they would've only missed, because TLAMs passed beyond their radar horizon.

One thing in this regards:

Here are the results thus far:
... The lead pilot of the Sarin attack is assassinatedThis didn't happen. Col Hasouri was advanced in rank to that of Major-General, and is still alive.

The entire action was apparently an attempt to distract attention of those who began tracking him carefully (meanwhile, the social media is reporting every time he gets airborne).

[Azor]

It is from late November 2016, but it bears keeping in mind, given the focus on Moscow-Washington-Damascus dynamics...

Statement before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations On “Defeating the Iranian Threat Network: Options for Countering Iranian Proxies”

By J. Matthew McInnis, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/112916_McInnis_Testimony.pdf

Selected Excerpts:


Recent estimates indicate more than a quarter million personnel are potentially responsive to IRGC direction, including:

• Lebanese Hezbollah: 45,000 fighters, of which 21,000 are full time, and 6,000 to 8,000 are currently deployed to Syria

• Palestinian Islamic Jihad: at most 1,000 personnel focused on targeting Israel

• Badr Corps Brigades: between 10,000 and 20,000 fighters

• Kata’ib Hezbollah: likely a core group of around 1,000 fighters, with 10,000 or more mobilized through its main subsidiary Saraya al-Difaa al-Shaabi and 1,000 to 3,000 likely deployed to Syria

• Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq: approximately 10,000 fighters, and 1,000 to 3,000 likely deployed to Syria

• Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade: 2,000 to 3,000 thousand fighters deployed to Syria, but total numbers for the group are unknown

• Pakistani Zainabiyoun Brigade: up to 1,000 fighters deployed to Syria, but total numbers for the group are unknown

• Syrian National Defense Force: approximately 100,000 mobilized Syrian fighters

• Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces: approximately 100,000 fighters, of which 80,000 are considered to be part of Iranian supported groups

...

Policy Recommendations

...the United States can take steps to mitigate the deterrent effect of Iran’s proxies. Four principles in such an approach include:


I. Expose and Demystify. Much of the deterrent effect of Iranian proxies stems from the impact of their fear-instilling and clandestine nature.


II. Contain and Push back. The United States can conduct relatively effective counterterrorism operations to trim QF and its proxies. Despite their sophistication, Iran’s proxy organizations have a much more detectable signature than true non-state actors such as the Islamic State or al Qaeda. The US capacity to contain and push back on these organizations is limited not by a lack of operational and tactical options, but rather by a lack of political will to confront Iran [emphasis added].


III. Divide and Undermine. The IRGC and its proxies’ heavy-handed behavior frequently stoke nationalist resentment in areas where they operate. These sentiments can be exploited through information operations and diplomatic activities to create a greater degree of separation between Tehran and its proxies. Reenergizing efforts to strengthen national military and police forces can prevent Iranian proxies and militias from becoming a permanent third army in places such as Iraq.


IV. Stem and Shape. Preventing the IRGC from turning groups it supports into full proxies, and therefore eventual tools of Iranian deterrence, is crucial...

[Azor]

...even if they would have opened fire, they would've only missed, because TLAMs passed beyond their radar horizon.

So Putin's toys do in fact work, but they are too far away and there are mountains between them and Shayrat... ;)


This didn't happen. Col Hasouri was advanced in rank to that of Major-General, and is still alive. The entire action was apparently an attempt to distract attention of those who began tracking him carefully (meanwhile, the social media is reporting every time he gets airborne).

Interesting. Do you believe that he will be assassinated by opposition forces?

[OUTLAW 09]

But will Putin aid Assad and therefore Khamenei in reconquering all of Syria? That's what Assad and Khamenei want, but Putin seems satisfied with Assad ruling over an Alawi enclave centered on Latakia and retaining its basing rights.

The response is quite simple if one really pays attention what Russians say ....

Two weeks before the major Russian and Hezbollah attack on Aleppo....the Russian ambassador in Syria publicly stated "Assad will not attack Aleppo"....what then was the results of that Russian statement....Aleppo fell...

And long before that remember when Assad gave one of his first public interviews where he publicly stated he was going to recapture all of Syria...AND everyone said he was crazy because he did not have the troops...BUT now we see at 150K Shia troops inside Syria AND he was not publicly rebutted by Russia....

That should give you the answer if you have seen the fighting since then....

There is an old saying from WW2..."where the Red Banner flies ..it will never leave unless forced to".....still valid in 2017...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...here is your your answer....Russia is not going to abandon Assad and leave the ME which has been their major dream since WW2...

Obama had abandoned the US position there for 70 odd years and actually Trump will continue that move....

If you reread the Mattis statement on Assad using CWs....it was a tad "messy"...and diffuse.....definitely not clear and concise.....

Russia is doing a full mobilization as the rest of the Western Military District follows 1.GuardsTankArmy. East and Central MDs already out.

Russia is now in the midst of a full scale combat alert FOR the entire Russian Army....never done even in Cold War....

there is your answer....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor..back to that Steele Dossier that you recently stated much had already been made largely public.....BUT actually now of the contents were ever made public before the dossier.....

FBI admits to FISA Warrant against a Trump advisor...

All the while Page was a fully witting agent of the SVR.

And there is a long line of connections between Page and Trump just not during the campaign....

REMEMBER the Steel dossier indicated that the CEO of Rosneft virtually offered Page and the Trump group 19% of their privatization sale..which was worth hundreds of millions....if the Russian sanctions could be lifted....with Page allegedly stating he could get this raised....

Indications are that offer did exist and the 19% sits right now in a small Russian controlled holding company parked in Malaysia....that deal was largely done via a Russian friendly Italian bank....over Cyprus....

NOTE
I'm reminded of how Page said he was never contacted by the FBI. Seems they didn't have to contact him to know what he was doing as they were watching him for months in typical CI fashion.

Carter Page's role as a foreign policy advisor to Trump was considered bizarre from day one. Now, it may make more sense.

Time to ask Corey Lewandowski why he lied about Carter Page. He approved Moscow trip but said "I never met him, Trump never met him."

Classified docs pushed by Nunes show no evidence Obama administration wiretapped Trump

[CrowBat]

So Putin's toys do in fact work...That's uncertain: certain is only that, according to Russian sources, in this case they were not even in a position to do anything.


Interesting. Do you believe that he will be assassinated by opposition forces?I consider it more likely that the regime is going to liquidate a potential 'crown witness' at an opportune point in time.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...after the Trump spokesperson's statement yesterday that Hitler did not use gas forgetting the gassing of thousands of Jews.....

Sean Spicer is morally defective and profoundly stupid.

If he's Trump's spokesperson this time tomorrow, you know all you need to about this WH.

NOT a single rebuke of Spicer's comment.....

First class stupidity.....

Sean Spicer is a USNR PAO and graduate of the Naval War College. Which speaks volumes about our Navy and the worthlessness of NWC "degrees".

[OUTLAW 09]

Yup, at least something.

I got really beasty in that case then, just 1 such strike back in 2012 or 2013, could've changed so much - and saved so many lives.

They couldn't. Not only that - despite the warning - they were still caught by their pants down; but, they knew they were wrong, caught red-handed, and they were left with too little time to find an excuse to open fire (at Tomahawks). Besides, even if they would have opened fire, they would've only missed, because TLAMs passed beyond their radar horizon.

One thing in this regards:
This didn't happen. Col Hasouri was advanced in rank to that of Major-General, and is still alive.

The entire action was apparently an attempt to distract attention of those who began tracking him carefully (meanwhile, the social media is reporting every time he gets airborne).

If the again aging Tornado's can under fly radar and clear by 10 feet the tops of trees using their onboard radars ..at a high speed rate...the newest TLAMs are no different....the biggest problem that German pilots initially had was learning to trust their radars and not touch a single thing on low level radar controlled flights....the natural reaction is to pull up if something is to close...

You cannot simply lower your missiles that low to engage....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor..well worth reading.....

Russian Dark Art.....

Essential reading. It just won the Pulitzer:
https://www.nytimes.com/series/russias-dark-arts#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...how can the US do anything FP wise in Syria when they do not understand Ukraine....it is all tied together...

Tillerson's "why care about Ukraine" borders on incompetence for SoS, utter lack of understanding of Russia threat
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-11/tillerson-asks-why-u-s-taxpayers-should-care-about-ukraine?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics#
…

[Azor]

Two weeks before the major Russian and Hezbollah attack on Aleppo...the Russian ambassador in Syria publicly stated "Assad will not attack Aleppo"...what then was the results of that Russian statement...Aleppo fell...

And long before that remember when Assad gave one of his first public interviews where he publicly stated he was going to recapture all of Syria...AND everyone said he was crazy because he did not have the troops...BUT now we see at 150K Shia troops inside Syria AND he was not publicly rebutted by Russia...

Again, none of this disputes my opinion that Assad’s and Khamenei’s diverge sharply from those of Putin. As for the “150K Shia troops”, most of these would be Alawis enrolled in the National Defense Force. But we both know that the 35,000 foreign Shia mercenaries led by Iranian officers are the ones doing the actual fighting, killing and dying on the front-lines, supported by Russian and Syrian airpower.

To some extent, you are conflating the Russian relationship with Luhansk and Donetsk, with the Russian relationship with Damascus and Teheran. The sack of Aleppo was probably more of an opportunity to gain aviation ground-attack experience and to make the U.S. appear powerless, than it was an operation that the Russians were advocating for.

From Michael Kofman at War on the Rocks (https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/no-plan-no-strategy-no-problem-syria-and-why-americas-russia-policy-is-off-to-a-rough-start/):


Assad made fools of both Presidents Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama, who certified that he had given up his chemical weapons as part of the arrangement which first spared him from American strikes in fall of 2013. Hence, we saw practically no response from Putin. Instead, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev was trotted out to ramble something akin to a rebuke on his Facebook account. Just to make it clear, Monday night the head of Russia’s Federation Council implied they were not going to defend Assad from external threats. Given the outcome, Putin is unlikely to forgive Assad for this embarrassment, and may be dreaming of firing 60 cruise missiles at something Assad cares more about than al-Shayrat airbase. For Moscow, this affair is probably an unexpected and bitter pill to swallow. It once again demonstrates that their desire for a role as power broker in Middle East is aspirational at best, and control over local actors in Syria remains elusive.


Russia is not going to abandon Assad and leave the ME which has been their major dream since WW2...Obama had abandoned the US position there for 70 odd years and actually Trump will continue that move...

Russia is doing a full mobilization as the rest of the Western Military District follows 1.GuardsTankArmy. East and Central MDs already out. Russia is now in the midst of a full scale combat alert FOR the entire Russian Army...never done even in Cold War...

I have never suggested that Putin is going to abandon Assad or exit Syria. What I have consistently said is that Putin seems satisfied with the current military balance and territorial dispositions, and seems more interested in freezing the conflict than aiding in the reconquest of Syria and re-establishment as a unitary state under Assad’s rule, which would probably be a march to folly.

As Kofman also noted: “Russia’s military footprint in Syria remains intentionally so small that it clearly is not meant to defend Assad.” Some saber-rattling in the Western MD says nothing about a deeper Russian commitment to Syria. Clearly, Putin is angry and seeking to save face publicly. I am more keener on what may be going on behind closed doors, as I hope you would be. Putin does not have to confront the West in order to placate his increasingly unruly domestic audience, but he must be seen to be doing so.

Russia is in the strange position of having more overseas basing opportunities than military assets to deploy, whether we are speaking of Syria, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua, and probably Iran and Venezuela as well.

As for your references to Trump and his domestic political imbroglios, I won’t be touching that with a ten-foot barge pole.

[Azor]

https://twitter.com/fadihussein8/status/851945348914229248

[OUTLAW 09]

Again, none of this disputes my opinion that Assad’s and Khamenei’s diverge sharply from those of Putin. As for the “150K Shia troops”, most of these would be Alawis enrolled in the National Defense Force. But we both know that the 35,000 foreign Shia mercenaries led by Iranian officers are the ones doing the actual fighting, killing and dying on the front-lines, supported by Russian and Syrian airpower.

To some extent, you are conflating the Russian relationship with Luhansk and Donetsk, with the Russian relationship with Damascus and Teheran. The sack of Aleppo was probably more of an opportunity to gain aviation ground-attack experience and to make the U.S. appear powerless, than it was an operation that the Russians were advocating for.

From Michael Kofman at War on the Rocks (https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/no-plan-no-strategy-no-problem-syria-and-why-americas-russia-policy-is-off-to-a-rough-start/):

.



I have never suggested that Putin is going to abandon Assad or exit Syria. What I have consistently said is that Putin seems satisfied with the current military balance and territorial dispositions, and seems more interested in freezing the conflict than aiding in the reconquest of Syria and re-establishment as a unitary state under Assad’s rule, which would probably be a march to folly.

As Kofman also noted: “Russia’s military footprint in Syria remains intentionally so small that it clearly is not meant to defend Assad.” Some saber-rattling in the Western MD says nothing about a deeper Russian commitment to Syria. Clearly, Putin is angry and seeking to save face publicly. I am more keener on what may be going on behind closed doors, as I hope you would be. Putin does not have to confront the West in order to placate his increasingly unruly domestic audience, but he must be seen to be doing so.

Russia is in the strange position of having more overseas basing opportunities than military assets to deploy, whether we are speaking of Syria, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua, and probably Iran and Venezuela as well.

As for your references to Trump and his domestic political imbroglios, I won’t be touching that with a ten-foot barge pole.

BUT it is that exact "ten foot barge pole" that have many questioning US intentions with the TLAM strike...was it really a "red line" or really just to divert from his worsening poll numbers and the FBI CI Russian investigation?

Aside...Putin is fast running out of time on his economic front....the true choice that he has needed to face since in his eastern Ukraine misadventure invasion is one that the US faced eventually in VN....guns or butter but not both at the same time....

Both eastern Ukraine...Crimea and Syria is costing him per day anywhere from 9-11M USDs per day per month per year and that is if there is no heavy fighting...

In Crimea the installed Russian "head" who was previously Ukrainian openly complained recently that things there are now worse than they were under Ukraine and for all his use of GRU to force Tartar submission...it is getting stronger not weaker.

Telling actually.....

Putin has just enough troops and combat power to tip the scales if his infantry comes from Iran which is the case....and as long as Iran provides the infantry....Assad will continue to try to recapture the entire country.

Outwardly there might appear to be some daylight between Assad and Putin BUT there is none as they are lock stepped at the hip now....

Here is Putin's problem....they stepped up and in an open agreement with the US for not bombing Assad after his first major gas attack in 2013 THEY Russia would guarantee that ALL Assad CWs would be withdrawn....which we now no did not truly happen.....

So it behooves Russia to fix the problem....this has nothing to do with what Obama did and or did not do.....Russia was the guarantor for the CW removal not Obama WH......the Obama WH mistake was not to heed warnings from some serious CW investigators that not all had been removed...

If you really watch Trump's WH they did the one strike and have been all verbal since then...basically finding all kinds of reasons to not follow it up with further strikes in order to stop even the normal plain barrel bombs.....

Here is my opinion...Putin is trapped right now by his own actions....he desparately started all of this ie eastern Ukraine...Crimea and Syria to be "accepted as an equal super power and be able to look into the eyes of the other two superpowers US/China at the same eye level"....and suddenly it looks like China/US are potentially doing a joint deal on NK without Putin and the US is directly and suddenly confronting him in Syria......

So right now he is not at "eye level"....and at the same time he has a growing number of Russians willing to openly demonstrate against him and his corruption ie the current trucker unrest which is spreading across all of Russia...because the owner of the toll company is the son of a very close Putin supporting oligarch and there was no need for the sudden toll increases other than to increase the corruption earnings of the son...

Guns or butter....that is Putin's choice and he can no longer pull off both at the same time....

BTW...Putin sees the Chinese moving closer to the US on the NK issue....
China looking increasingly uncomfortable in middle of US-DPRK crisis. Xi calls Trump, urges peace.
http://wapo.st/2p4hRKK?tid=ss_tw#

BUT NASDQ warned this week that 150K Chinese troops have been placed on alert and moved closer to the NK border...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....this is that "ten foot barge pole" that urgently needs to be discussed.....

Since the Trump ordered TLAM strike suddenly we are seeing white nationalists and white supremacists who openly and strongly supported Trump via blogsites...and social media and who often accepted and passed on fake Russian news and comments in support of Trump....NOW they are in open revolt against his actions and in full support of Putin and Assad....

So for the first time we see "brown elements" fully and completely accepting and pushing Russian FP goals...why is that???

Ever notice that MSM is shying away from that story???

Self embarrassing idiot. LaRouche/Assad cultist Scott Gaulke.

BTW Larouche once wrote in one of his early books..."you do not need to wear brown to be brown"...AND his daughter is the formal leader of the European Workers Party (EAP) and sits in Brussels....also a neo rightist group...

[OUTLAW 09]

This is just how the current Trump WH is misreading Putin...


Russia seeks to "save face" in Syria - U.S. envoy to UN Nikki Haley, the US envoy to the United Nations, is characterizing Russia as skittish and isolated in the wake of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's deadly chemical weapon attack last week that killed scores of civilians, including children, according to CNN.

https://www.unian.info/politics/1872686-russia-seeks-to-save-face-in-syria-us-envoy-to-un.html

I do not see Putin skittish and isolated at all in his Syrian actions....as long as Russians are currently voicing their support for eastern Ukraine and Syria he will stay the course....and the latest polling indicates they are standing by him...

[OUTLAW 09]

Hassan Hassan حسن
✔
@hxhassan
Reason why Syrians find this particularly amusing is that "ya hiwan" is a signature Syrian mukhabarat slur word.

BTW Iraqi's also use the term mukhabarat meaning state security police (secret police)

[OUTLAW 09]

While Trump has been bashing Assad and Putin...Russia wants back Alaska...

Alaska's Arctic policy adviser falls victim to Russian media provokatsiya.
https://www.adn.com/arctic/2017/04/11/alaskas-arctic-policy-adviser-falls-victim-to-fake-news-in-russia/#

Reverse fake news hits Russia....

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting piece from @EliotHiggins back in 2014 - still relevant to the tin foil hat claims of false flag in Syria
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/22/allegation-false-turkey-chemical-attack-syria#


AND in 2017...Russian claimed immediately it was a rebel CW factory they "accidently hit"?

OPCW also said Syria used chlorine as a CW, but Russia rejected that conclusions for ~reasons~

BTW...it is said that in the Russian MoD gift shop you can purchase "magic beans"...

[OUTLAW 09]

NOTICE anything here....

Минобороны России‏
Verified account
#
@mod_russia
#SYRIA Insurgents are delivering toxic substances to areas of Khan Sheikhoun, Jira airport, East Ghouta and to the west from Aleppo

SO are we seeing the Russians layout the following areas for follow on sarin attacks using the excuse ..."it was those pesky rebels with that bombed out CW factory we said we destroyed but the West did not believe us"?????

Note that siege of E #Ghouta has tightened, prices skyrocketing, food supplies running low. Nobody is "delivering" anything there right now

Kyle Orton
✔
@KyleWOrton
It's either #Russia just polluting the information space after Khan Shaykhun, or it's Moscow preparing for more chemical attacks in #Syria.

US officials estimate Assad has used chemical weapons more than 200 times since the so called CW destruction was certified by Russia....that is an average of 6-7 times a days...

UN figures are at 167 attacks....

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA battle against #IslamicState in Yarmouk Basin /south western #Syria without any help by #US #Pentagon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yxLAA7Bbhw#

[OUTLAW 09]

Spicer's statement was made on behalf of a president who, in 2015, minimized a chemical gas attack that killed 5,000

[OUTLAW 09]

Russians around Palmyra

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: Tillerson and Lavrov are discussing possibility of establishing no-fly zones in Syria

BUT WAIT....
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister says U.S. rhetoric is "primitive and loutish"

BREAKING: United States calls for the immediate withdrawal of #Hizballah in #Syria — State department spokesperson.

Syria Prisoners exchange btw #Hezbollah/#Iran & #Ahrar_al_Sham near #Idlib city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5c2VdUq4Xs#

[OUTLAW 09]

Here we go again...everyone's worse nightmare....

Iran's former President Ahmadinejad has filed to run in the country's presidential election

[OUTLAW 09]

Assad give orders for new wave of deportations
(now 4-5000 residents from the #Damascus suburbs #Zabadani & #Madaya) to northern #Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA News @FSAPlatform
NEW #Video || #Daraa

The Free Syrian Army's multiple enemies in Daraa & the regime's coordination with Daesh
https://youtu.be/gz-sWIXveMA

[OUTLAW 09]

Trump's own spokesperson really does have to be fired....and on the spot....

After apologizing for his Hitler gaffe on CNN....Spicer he then goes to state that he does not want to distract from Trump's destabilizing the region.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Assad or #Putin burns the country.
#Daraa city after several weeks of intense #Kremlin regime air strikes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBewiBt4W1g#…

Starting to look just alike Aleppo....

[OUTLAW 09]

Turkey’s autopsies that proved the use of #Sarin in #KhanSheikhoun were overseen by the World Health Organization (WHO).

US has SIGINT & GEOINT *proving* #Assad regime responsibility for CW attack in #Idilb.
NSC dossier to be released:
http://bv.ms/2omFv2p

[OUTLAW 09]

Again the former Obama guys are still to timid with dealing with Putin....

Former #Obama officials who spent years trying to use diplomacy to change #Russia, now say diplomacy is no use & pressure is too dangerous.

Agree fully with this comment....

Russia & Putin’s rhetoric right now is aimed squarely at deterring the U.S from feeling like it can do more in Syria.

It’s bluster.

[OUTLAW 09]

Again, none of this disputes my opinion that Assad’s and Khamenei’s diverge sharply from those of Putin. As for the “150K Shia troops”, most of these would be Alawis enrolled in the National Defense Force. But we both know that the 35,000 foreign Shia mercenaries led by Iranian officers are the ones doing the actual fighting, killing and dying on the front-lines, supported by Russian and Syrian airpower.

To some extent, you are conflating the Russian relationship with Luhansk and Donetsk, with the Russian relationship with Damascus and Teheran. The sack of Aleppo was probably more of an opportunity to gain aviation ground-attack experience and to make the U.S. appear powerless, than it was an operation that the Russians were advocating for.

From Michael Kofman at War on the Rocks (https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/no-plan-no-strategy-no-problem-syria-and-why-americas-russia-policy-is-off-to-a-rough-start/):

.



I have never suggested that Putin is going to abandon Assad or exit Syria. What I have consistently said is that Putin seems satisfied with the current military balance and territorial dispositions, and seems more interested in freezing the conflict than aiding in the reconquest of Syria and re-establishment as a unitary state under Assad’s rule, which would probably be a march to folly.

As Kofman also noted: “Russia’s military footprint in Syria remains intentionally so small that it clearly is not meant to defend Assad.” Some saber-rattling in the Western MD says nothing about a deeper Russian commitment to Syria. Clearly, Putin is angry and seeking to save face publicly. I am more keener on what may be going on behind closed doors, as I hope you would be. Putin does not have to confront the West in order to placate his increasingly unruly domestic audience, but he must be seen to be doing so.

Russia is in the strange position of having more overseas basing opportunities than military assets to deploy, whether we are speaking of Syria, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua, and probably Iran and Venezuela as well.

As for your references to Trump and his domestic political imbroglios, I won’t be touching that with a ten-foot barge pole.

Azor....Russian military can in fact project power...via their GRU Spetsnaz....

Russia Plans Joint Military Exercises in Nicaragua - 100 Russian paratroopers and 10 combat air vehicles
https://panampost.com/elena-toledo/2017/04/10/russia-plans-military-exercises-nicaragua/#

This is the size of a Spetsnaz Company plus vehicles...all air deliverable....that is all it takes to project an image of combat power these days for the MSM....

[OUTLAW 09]

Worst-kept secret in intl diplomacy? #Syria kept CW and for years there was little appetite to do anything about it-
https://www.wsj.com/articles/syria-attack-exposes-failed-deal-to-rid-regime-of-chemical-weapons-1491963112#

[OUTLAW 09]

Not sure if these are good signs for the Russian/US meeting today.....

Grass along the edge of the airfield where Tillerson was to land caught fire and had to be put out....THEN when he landed it snowed?????

[OUTLAW 09]

Us tone is getting a tad to concrete right now...

Stopping Iranian airlift to Syria one of the most consequential things US could do to disrupt Assad war effort and restrain IRGC/Hezbollah


WOW...buyers remorse.....
Putin says Russia’s level of trust in Washington was better under Obama. Trump has “degraded” it
https://ria.ru/politics/20170412/1492067130.html#

His influence and hacking operation seems to have gone seriously astray....

[OUTLAW 09]

Real results from the #Astana process absent. Proliferation of negotiating platforms does not necessarily bear a fruit -

UN envoy Haley says Russia isolating itself from international community every time Syria drops a barrel bomb
http://reut.rs/2p6g08k