Syria in 2017 (January-April) [Archive] - Page 8

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 05:34 PM

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/rojava-seeks-to-break-out-in-syria#.WO5ZblDnALA.twitter

Rojava Seeks to Break Out in Syria
Fabrice Balanche
April 12, 2017

Despite their desire for greater independence, Syria's Kurds have shown a willingness to broker agreements with the Assad regime in order to secure their near-term economic interests, and they may soon do the same with Iran.

In February, the Syrian army met up with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces south of Manbij, a development that Kurdish authorities have characterized as a means of linking the northwestern canton of Afrin with the rest of their territorial bloc along the Syria-Turkey border. The Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Kurdish militia that dominates the SDF, would have preferred to control this link with its own troops rather than relying on the Assad regime, but recent Turkish operations blocked its westward march. Even so, the situation gives the Syrian Kurds of Rojava another means of preventing other actors from boxing them in politically or economically, at least for now.

ROJAVA STILL BELONGS TO SYRIA'S ECONOMIC SPACE
Although the latest developments will facilitate the circulation of goods between Afrin and the rest of Rojava, any such movement is still subject to the regime's goodwill. Fortunately for the PYD, Bashar al-Assad has a mutual interest in expanding economic relations with the Kurds. Western Syria needs the cotton, wheat, and oil produced in Rojava's easternmost Jazira canton, while the Kurds need to export their raw materials and import manufactured goods. Thanks to this new overland connection, Syrian Kurds will be less dependent on Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for their supplies; the northeastern passage to Peshkhabur, Iraq, is no longer the only international trade route open to them.
Of course, Kurdish wartime trade relations with western Syria were ongoing even before February's Afrin linkup. Goods continued to circulate between Rojava and regime territory, with taxes levied by the Syrian army as well as various Assad-allied and rebel militias. For example, trucks transporting Jazira's grain harvest to government areas had to pay a commission to Islamic State forces when passing through their territory. And in recent months, whenever Afrin was supplied with fuel from refineries in the Rmelan region east of Qamishli, Turkish-backed rebels in between the two areas took as much as half the cargo in "tolls." Since February, however, Kurds have been able to send fuel through the Syrian army corridor between Manbij and Afrin via Aleppo. Assad's forces have kept their own tolls relatively low to incentivize the use of regime-controlled roads. Facilitating trade with Rojava helps Assad politically as well, keeping the Kurds under his economic influence while also benefiting key associates and family members such as Rami Makhlouf, owner of FlyDamas, the principal airline serving Qamishli.
QAMISHLI AIRPORT IS INDISPENSABLE
Despite being located deep within Rojava, Qamishli Airport is still under the Syrian army's control. The PYD never tried to take it because it is an indispensable means of communication for Rojava. The two daily flights to Damascus are full of essential cargo, as are the two weekly flights to Beirut and the weekly flight to Kuwait. It also the easiest way for local civilians to travel abroad. The nearest international airport is Erbil, a full day's drive away. Crossing the Tigris River to Peshkhabur is a painstaking process because civilians cannot use the barge, which is reserved for cargo trucks. Customs formalities take up ample time as well.
Prior to February, Qamishli Airport was also the only way for Kurdish civilians to reach the western regime zone. Throughout the war, thousands of students who attend universities in Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, and Latakia have been concerned about losing the ability to travel back to their homes back in Rojava. Access to Damascus is essential for medical reasons as well -- Rojava hospitals are poorly equipped, and most of their medicines come from the regime zone. Public salaries and pensions from Damascus have also arrived by plane. In short, Kurdish authorities do not yet have the means to replace the Syrian state in many sectors.
ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE: IDEOLOGY VS. PRAGMATISM
The PYD takeover of Hasaka province in 2012, as well as the breakdown of territorial continuity with the regime zone when rebels seized the Euphrates Valley, completely disorganized the local economy. Previously, Hasaka had been assigned the role of producing raw materials, particularly oil, cereals, and cotton. For example, its cereal output typically constituted around half of the country's total production, helping to ensure Syria's food independence. Hasaka also produced 80 percent of the country's cotton before the war. This "white gold" fed Syria's powerful textile industry and was exported for great profit. Farmers had to take part in very strict regime-mandated production plans that excluded other crops. Public offices for wheat and cotton supplied them with seeds and bought their whole crop at prices fixed by the state. Similarly, local agricultural administrations supplied fertilizers from the huge chemical plant in Homs at low cost.
As a result of these policies, Hasaka came to resemble an internal colony forced to feed western Syria with raw materials. The creation of local industrial enterprises was long forbidden, and while the state opened two spinning mills there, most of the country's cotton was processed in Aleppo and the coastal region. Moreover, the province had no textile sector to speak of, while its agro-food industry was limited to a few artisanal dairies and flour mills for local needs. Although it produced one-third of Syria's oil, it had no refineries or plastics industry. The Rmelan thermal power plant covered only strategic needs related to oil extraction; most other electricity came from the Baath, Tishrin, and Thawra dams on the Euphrates. By enforcing such economic dependency, the regime hoped to avoid any secessionist attempts by the Kurds -- in striking contrast to the Alawite coastal region, which Bashar's father endowed with all the infrastructure needed to establish an independent sectarian bunker if the regime ever lost power in Damascus.
Today, the PYD advocates a self-sufficient economy to liberate itself from unequal relations with Damascus. It also rejects the capitalist system and seeks to promote the philosophy of Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who has long advocated more Marxist-leaning policies. At the moment, however, these ideas can only be implemented on a small scale in Rojava, so Kurdish authorities likely feel compelled to open up their territory in order export their raw materials and trade for manufactured products. In this context, opening a second commercial route to Iraq would strongly reinforce Rojava's independence, and much more rapidly than the slow and uncertain construction of a self-sufficient economy.
A WESTWARD ROUTE FOR IRAN? #
A new land route between Hasaka and Kirkuk could allow Rojava to break its dependence on the Peshkhabur border crossing, which remains under full control by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the leading faction in Iraq's KRG. This route would likely pass south of the Yazidi Mountains before reaching Tal Afar and then Kirkuk through the Tigris Valley, now controlled by the Iraqi army and its associated Shiite militias. Kirkuk is dominated by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), a KRG faction that is close to Iran and Baghdad, unlike the KDP.

To be sure, the feasibility of opening this route is not yet assured because the Islamic State is still present south of Sinjar, while the KDP and PKK are currently clashing for control over Sinjar itself. Moreover, KDP president Masoud Barzani and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan both oppose any strategic axis that opens Rojava up to the outside world and reinforces its geopolitical importance for Iran. Yet if current trends continue, a corridor could be established between Hasaka and Kirkuk, essentially linking Syria's Kurds to Iran via Sulaymaniyah. Theoretically, Rojava could then become an Iranian transit route between Iraq, western Syria, and even the Mediterranean coast, at least once U.S. forces leave eastern Syria. Although this is not the shortest potential westward route for Iran, it would have the advantage of circumventing Islamic State strongholds along the Syria-Iraq border, where the terrorists are likely to take refuge after being expelled from Raqqa and Mosul. Accordingly, if the United States and its allies hope to prevent Tehran from establishing such a corridor, they will need to reinforce their own influence in Syrian Kurdish areas.

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 06:04 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 06:08 PM

"The Syria strike deals Putin a double blow."
http://www.newsweek.com/nolan-peterson-syria-strike-deals-putin-double-blow-581277#

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 06:13 PM

Tillerson: recent CW attack was planned, directed and executed by Syrian regime forces.

We are quite confident of that

Tillerson: "Chemical attack was planned & directed by Syrian regime"
Lavrov: "This is a topic we differ on"

Lavrov starts to say “regarding the investigation into the use of chemical weapons,” then says, “the investigation into reports of the use…”

Weird how Lavrov keeps asking for OPCW probe into Syria chem attacks when Russia has dismissed past OPCW probes that blamed Assad.

Lavrov is using much of this press conference to attack US policies from ME regime change to Nato bombing Yugoslavia

BTW...these reasons were exactly the same ones Putin/Lavrov used when explaining Russia humiliation that drove then to militarily annex Crimea and to invade eastern Ukraine....

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 06:17 PM

Tillerson says possible that threshold necessary to charge Assad with war crimes may be reached over time
http://reut.rs/2ozELZQ

Lavrov starts press conference waving olive branch at Tillerson, then delves into disagreements over chemical attack, list of grievances.

Tillerson: RUS interference in US elecs "fairly well established... it is a serious issue, serious enough to attract additional sanctions"

Tillerson: Russia election interference is established, deserves serious consideration, even more sanctions. Lavrov: Nobody talked sanctions

Lavrov: "we were not shown a single fact" in terms of alleged RUS interference in US elecs, "we were not shown anything"

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 06:25 PM

Malyutka ATGM launched from an Islamic State Toyota Land Cruiser with a BMP-1 turret in Deir ez-Zor, Wilayat al-Khayr.

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 06:28 PM

UAE & Saudi are backing/training a 3k strong FSA faction known as the Elite Forces that is allied to SDF, counter regime control in DeZ

OUTLAW 09

04-12-2017, 06:30 PM

British Embassy
✔
@UKinUSA
Chemical weapon scientists in UK have tested samples from 4 April #Syria attack. Test results show sarin or sarin-like substance used.

Azor

04-12-2017, 07:41 PM

*Posted on the Syria thread due to the 2017 Executive Orders and the focus of overseas counter-terrorism operations in Syria.

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/ali_challengeofdawa_final_web.pdf

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Speaking in Youngstown, Ohio, on August 15, 2016, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gave a speech on what he unequivocally referred to as “radical Islam.” He declared:

Nor can we let the hateful ideology of radical Islam—its oppression of women, gays, children, and nonbelievers—be allowed to reside or spread within our own countries . . . [W]-e must use ideological warfare as well. Just as we won the Cold War, in part, by exposing the evils of communism and the virtues of free markets, so too must we take on the ideology of radical Islam. Our administration will be a friend to all moderate Muslim reformers in the Middle East, and will amplify their voices.

Since Mr. Trump’s election victory and inauguration as president, much attention has been focused on hurried and probably temporary restrictions on refugees, visitors, and immigrants from a number of majority-Muslim countries. Almost no attention has been paid to the broader goals outlined in the Youngstown speech.

I argue that the speech heralded a paradigm shift away from President Obama’s doctrine of focusing solely on the violence committed by “extremists” to a more comprehensive approach that seeks to undermine, degrade, and ultimately defeat political Islam (or Islamism) as an ideology and a movement seeking to infiltrate and undermine our free society.

A narrow focus on Islamist violence had the effect of restricting our options only to tools such as military intervention, electronic surveillance, and the criminal justice system. This approach has proved both costly and ineffective.

Moving beyond the controversy over his executive order on immigration, President Trump now has the chance to broaden our strategy. Instead of “combating violent extremism,” his administration needs to redefine the threat posed by political Islam by recognizing it as an ideology that is fundamentally incompatible with our freedoms and a movement that is working insidiously but effectively to achieve its stated utopia.

I argue that the American public urgently needs to be educated about both the ideology of political Islam and the organizational infrastructure called dawa that Islamists use to inspire, indoctrinate, recruit, finance, and mobilize those Muslims whom they win over to their cause.

There is no point in denying that this ideology has its foundation in Islamic doctrine. However, “Islam,” “Islamism,” and “Muslims” are distinct concepts. Not all Muslims are Islamists, let alone violent, though all Islamists—including those who use violence—are Muslims. I believe the religion of Islam itself is indeed capable of reformation, if only to distinguish it more clearly from the political ideology of Islamism. But that task of reform can only be carried out by Muslims. Happily, there is a growing number of reformist Muslims. Part of the Trump administration’s strategy must be to support and empower them.

The other part of the strategy requires confronting dawa, a term unfamiliar to Americans. Dawa as practiced by radical Islamists employs a wide range of mechanisms to advance their goal of imposing Islamic law (sharia) on society. This includes proselytizing but extends beyond that. In Western countries, dawa aims both to convert non-Muslims to political Islam and to instill Islamist views in existing Muslims. The ultimate goal of dawa is to destroy the political institutions of a free society and replace them with the rule of sharia law.

Dawa is to the Islamists of today what the “long march through the institutions” was to twentieth-century Marxists. It is subversion from within—the abuse of religious freedom in order to undermine that very freedom. Another analogy is also possible. After Islamists gain power, dawa is to them what Gleichschaltung (synchronization) of all aspects of German state, civil, and social institutions was to the National Socialists.

There are of course differences. The biggest difference is that dawa is rooted in the Islamic practice of attempting to convert non-Muslims to accept the message of Islam. As it is an ostensibly religious missionary activity, proponents of dawa enjoy a much greater protection by the law in free societies than Marxists or fascists did in the past.

Worse, Islamist groups have enjoyed not just protection but at times official sponsorship from government agencies duped into regarding them as representatives of “moderate Muslims” simply because they do not engage in violence.

All this means that the new administration urgently needs to devise an anti-dawa counterstrategy that employs the full range of tools at our disposal.

The purpose of this report is to suggest the basis for a new anti-dawa strategy, designed to check the advance of political Islam as an ideology and a movement.

In the first part, I describe the constitution of political Islam: the foundational principles, terminology, and objectives of Islamist ideology.

In the second part, I analyze the infrastructure of political Islam, in particular the institutions and techniques of dawa.

In the third part, I propose a number of policies that I believe will, if properly implemented, halt the spread of political Islam in the United States and perhaps also abroad.

Azor

04-12-2017, 09:15 PM

Azor...Russian military can in fact project power...via their GRU Spetsnaz...Russia Plans Joint Military Exercises in Nicaragua - 100 Russian paratroopers and 10 combat air vehicles…This is the size of a Spetsnaz Company plus vehicles...all air deliverable...that is all it takes to project an image of combat power these days for the MSM...

Mon Dieu! Does #USNORTHCOM know about this?

Putin has just enough troops and combat power to tip the scales if his infantry comes from Iran which is the case...and as long as Iran provides the infantry...Assad will continue to try to recapture the entire country.

But Russian military activities appear more geared toward securing Assad’s Alawi enclave and pushing rebel groups away from its edges. Russia would have to make major additional contributions in order to help Assad retake the areas currently under Daesh control, and what of the PYD-SDF areas or the TAF-FSA areas? Is Assad willing to give the Kurds independence? Is Russia prepared to kill Turkish and American soldiers?

Here is Putin's problem...they stepped up and in an open agreement with the US for not bombing Assad after his first major gas attack in 2013 THEY Russia would guarantee that ALL Assad CWs would be withdrawn...which we know did not truly happen....

So it behooves Russia to fix the problem...this has nothing to do with what Obama did and or did not do...Russia was the guarantor for the CW removal not Obama WH...the Obama WH mistake was not to heed warnings from some serious CW investigators that not all had been removed...

Putin was a guarantor, but it is doubtful that Russia could entirely account for all of Assad’s stockpiles. Moreover, Obama was fully aware of the limitations of the agreement and made it anyway. The vanishing of Syria from the American news cycle as Assad resorted instead to chlorine was a cynical American establishment suppressing inconvenient truth.

I would hold Khamenei more responsible than Putin. There is no way that Assad used CWs without explicit approval or instructions from Teheran. The Iranians and their mercenaries riddle Assad’s remaining institutions, and certainly under Obama, Teheran knew that it would never be blamed or even acknowledged because of the importance of the JCPOA, and the MSM also colluded to bury this other inconvenient truth. Obama, Putin and Khamenei were all pleased for various reasons to have the Syrian Civil War framed as a contest between the U.S. and Russia. Not so now…

If you really watch Trump's WH they did the one strike and have been all verbal since then...basically finding all kinds of reasons to not follow it up with further strikes in order to stop even the normal plain barrel bombs...

The fact that you want mission creep and that you feel the strike was not enough, are quite frankly irrelevant. You do realize that the isolationist crowd considers the Sarin attack in the same light as Iraqi WMDs or the Gulf of Tonkin, and believes that a few dozen TLAMs are Operation Iraqi Freedom redux, don’t you?

Put you on the NSC and the U.S. would be engaged in great power conflicts in Ukraine and Syria at the least, if not more places… The issue with SWJ/SWC is that experts in tactics and insurgencies often assume that they are equally adept when it comes to grand strategy and great power clashes. For instance, Wavell was a far abler operational and tactical commander than Churchill, who hamstrung the Western Desert Force in North Africa in 1941, but Churchill was the strategic genius of the war.

Here is my opinion...Putin is trapped right now by his own actions....he desperately started all of this i.e. eastern Ukraine...Crimea and Syria to be "accepted as an equal super power and be able to look into the eyes of the other two superpowers US/China at the same eye level"...and suddenly it looks like China/US are potentially doing a joint deal on NK without Putin and the US is directly and suddenly confronting him in Syria...

So right now he is not at "eye level"...and at the same time he has a growing number of Russians willing to openly demonstrate against him and his corruption i.e. the current trucker unrest which is spreading across all of Russia...because the owner of the toll company is the son of a very close Putin supporting oligarch and there was no need for the sudden toll increases other than to increase the corruption earnings of the son...

Guns or butter...that is Putin's choice and he can no longer pull off both at the same time...

I think that Putin is in less of a vice than you claim. Note that these claims have been made by you and others, including the U.S. government, since 2014. Of course, the latter made them in order to justify denying Ukraine arms and relying solely upon diplomatic and economic punishment of Russia.

I completely agree with you that there is a toll being taken. It is impossible to know whether these bouts of unrest will fizzle out, worsen gradually over time or explode into violent revolution. Unfortunately, the history of revolutions give us little to go on in the way of indicators that can predict them with any accuracy. For instance, not only Ceausescu but the international community, was taken by surprise at the pace of events.

There is increasing disgruntlement and Russian economic growth has backslid from its levels prior to 2014. However, Putin is still far ahead of the catastrophic Yeltsin era and well above the Soviet experience of the late 1980s:

GDP PPP Per Capita has doubled since 1999, and is still 17% higher than in 1990 (RSFSR)
Corruption is still a major problem in Russia, however, it the CPI has improved substantially since Putin was elected (20-29)
GDP from manufacturing has consistently grown (doubled since 2003)
GDP (constant prices) has almost tripled since 2003
Russian FOREX reserves have fallen 1/3 since 2009, but were non-existent during Yeltsin’s tenure
Russia’s government debt-to-GDP ratio fell 10X from 1999 to 2007, and remains below 20% of 1999 levels

So like it as not, Putin does have room for both, although he seems to be cautious about over-spending on foreign policy stunts. In all probability, Putin will leave the economy to its own devices and seek to regain prestige on the world stage.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:06 AM

Mon Dieu! Does #USNORTHCOM know about this?

But Russian military activities appear more geared toward securing Assad’s Alawi enclave and pushing rebel groups away from its edges. Russia would have to make major additional contributions in order to help Assad retake the areas currently under Daesh control, and what of the PYD-SDF areas or the TAF-FSA areas? Is Assad willing to give the Kurds independence? Is Russia prepared to kill Turkish and American soldiers?

Putin was a guarantor, but it is doubtful that Russia could entirely account for all of Assad’s stockpiles. Moreover, Obama was fully aware of the limitations of the agreement and made it anyway. The vanishing of Syria from the American news cycle as Assad resorted instead to chlorine was a cynical American establishment suppressing inconvenient truth.

I would hold Khamenei more responsible than Putin. There is no way that Assad used CWs without explicit approval or instructions from Teheran. The Iranians and their mercenaries riddle Assad’s remaining institutions, and certainly under Obama, Teheran knew that it would never be blamed or even acknowledged because of the importance of the JCPOA, and the MSM also colluded to bury this other inconvenient truth. Obama, Putin and Khamenei were all pleased for various reasons to have the Syrian Civil War framed as a contest between the U.S. and Russia. Not so now…

The fact that you want mission creep and that you feel the strike was not enough, are quite frankly irrelevant. You do realize that the isolationist crowd considers the Sarin attack in the same light as Iraqi WMDs or the Gulf of Tonkin, and believes that a few dozen TLAMs are Operation Iraqi Freedom redux, don’t you?

Put you on the NSC and the U.S. would be engaged in great power conflicts in Ukraine and Syria at the least, if not more places… The issue with SWJ/SWC is that experts in tactics and insurgencies often assume that they are equally adept when it comes to grand strategy and great power clashes. For instance, Wavell was a far abler operational and tactical commander than Churchill, who hamstrung the Western Desert Force in North Africa in 1941, but Churchill was the strategic genius of the war.

I think that Putin is in less of a vice than you claim. Note that these claims have been made by you and others, including the U.S. government, since 2014. Of course, the latter made them in order to justify denying Ukraine arms and relying solely upon diplomatic and economic punishment of Russia.

I completely agree with you that there is a toll being taken. It is impossible to know whether these bouts of unrest will fizzle out, worsen gradually over time or explode into violent revolution. Unfortunately, the history of revolutions give us little to go on in the way of indicators that can predict them with any accuracy. For instance, not only Ceausescu but the international community, was taken by surprise at the pace of events.

There is increasing disgruntlement and Russian economic growth has backslid from its levels prior to 2014. However, Putin is still far ahead of the catastrophic Yeltsin era and well above the Soviet experience of the late 1980s:

GDP PPP Per Capita has doubled since 1999, and is still 17% higher than in 1990 (RSFSR)
Corruption is still a major problem in Russia, however, it the CPI has improved substantially since Putin was elected (20-29)
GDP from manufacturing has consistently grown (doubled since 2003)
GDP (constant prices) has almost tripled since 2003
Russian FOREX reserves have fallen 1/3 since 2009, but were non-existent during Yeltsin’s tenure
Russia’s government debt-to-GDP ratio fell 10X from 1999 to 2007, and remains below 20% of 1999 levels

So like it as not, Putin does have room for both, although he seems to be cautious about over-spending on foreign policy stunts. In all probability, Putin will leave the economy to its own devices and seek to regain prestige on the world stage.

Azor...your core problem is that you do not speak to Russians on a daily basis as I do often here in Berlin..all in their 20/30s and they are not going back home any time soon....

The trucker strike right now is extremely well known inside Russia little known outside Russia and it goes to the heart of the Russian economy slash corruption.

You quote figures and percentages BUT in the end it is the society that right now sees their real income sinking to levels not seen since the 90s..food costs exploding and getting higher with each day and the corruption that the opposition talks about and gets arrested for talking about is up front and in their face and they blame Putin no one else.....

Great FP successes do not feed you and or your family theses days inside Russia.

I have from the very beginning stated ...with a Putin and an Assad if one does not confront and confront them daily with all forms of measures they will pull back exactly one inch wait for the West to get lazy which takes exactly two weeks and then moves forward again..

Diplomacy gets you nowhere...AND you can check my comments in SWC entered right after the annexation of Crimea..concerning the fact that the US pushed diplomacy was doomed to fail and it has....

Kerry tried it for years and Tillerson ran straight into a setup propaganda show yesterday...Putin has no intention in abandoning Assad and or Crimea and especially eastern Ukraine which he wants to turn into Transnestria with Ukraine paying not Russia...

You must have missed my Red Banner saying.....

They both respect you if you respond as they would as they can judge how then to react...BUT get hit by TLAMs and total verbal confrontation in UNSC...then they are confused and lost and grope for what to do...which is exactly what we are seeing in Moscow right now...

Putin threatens war at every turn...that is his standard threat....in the end he does nothing as he does in fact fear a direct war as he knows he will lose....

The West on the other hand is actually afraid of war and pulls back under the bluster...thus allowing him to move forward unimpeded..

Check every move he has made since Georgia...you will notice the pattern...if I can see it then the NSC should be able to see it...if not then they should take a short educational trip to Berlin and talk to actual Russians.....

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:18 AM

*Posted on the Syria thread due to the 2017 Executive Orders and the focus of overseas counter-terrorism operations in Syria.

http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/ali_challengeofdawa_final_web.pdf

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Speaking in Youngstown, Ohio, on August 15, 2016, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gave a speech on what he unequivocally referred to as “radical Islam.” He declared:

Since Mr. Trump’s election victory and inauguration as president, much attention has been focused on hurried and probably temporary restrictions on refugees, visitors, and immigrants from a number of majority-Muslim countries. Almost no attention has been paid to the broader goals outlined in the Youngstown speech.

I argue that the speech heralded a paradigm shift away from President Obama’s doctrine of focusing solely on the violence committed by “extremists” to a more comprehensive approach that seeks to undermine, degrade, and ultimately defeat political Islam (or Islamism) as an ideology and a movement seeking to infiltrate and undermine our free society.

A narrow focus on Islamist violence had the effect of restricting our options only to tools such as military intervention, electronic surveillance, and the criminal justice system. This approach has proved both costly and ineffective.

Moving beyond the controversy over his executive order on immigration, President Trump now has the chance to broaden our strategy. Instead of “combating violent extremism,” his administration needs to redefine the threat posed by political Islam by recognizing it as an ideology that is fundamentally incompatible with our freedoms and a movement that is working insidiously but effectively to achieve its stated utopia.

I argue that the American public urgently needs to be educated about both the ideology of political Islam and the organizational infrastructure called dawa that Islamists use to inspire, indoctrinate, recruit, finance, and mobilize those Muslims whom they win over to their cause.

There is no point in denying that this ideology has its foundation in Islamic doctrine. However, “Islam,” “Islamism,” and “Muslims” are distinct concepts. Not all Muslims are Islamists, let alone violent, though all Islamists—including those who use violence—are Muslims. I believe the religion of Islam itself is indeed capable of reformation, if only to distinguish it more clearly from the political ideology of Islamism. But that task of reform can only be carried out by Muslims. Happily, there is a growing number of reformist Muslims. Part of the Trump administration’s strategy must be to support and empower them.

The other part of the strategy requires confronting dawa, a term unfamiliar to Americans. Dawa as practiced by radical Islamists employs a wide range of mechanisms to advance their goal of imposing Islamic law (sharia) on society. This includes proselytizing but extends beyond that. In Western countries, dawa aims both to convert non-Muslims to political Islam and to instill Islamist views in existing Muslims. The ultimate goal of dawa is to destroy the political institutions of a free society and replace them with the rule of sharia law.

Dawa is to the Islamists of today what the “long march through the institutions” was to twentieth-century Marxists. It is subversion from within—the abuse of religious freedom in order to undermine that very freedom. Another analogy is also possible. After Islamists gain power, dawa is to them what Gleichschaltung (synchronization) of all aspects of German state, civil, and social institutions was to the National Socialists.

There are of course differences. The biggest difference is that dawa is rooted in the Islamic practice of attempting to convert non-Muslims to accept the message of Islam. As it is an ostensibly religious missionary activity, proponents of dawa enjoy a much greater protection by the law in free societies than Marxists or fascists did in the past.

Worse, Islamist groups have enjoyed not just protection but at times official sponsorship from government agencies duped into regarding them as representatives of “moderate Muslims” simply because they do not engage in violence.

All this means that the new administration urgently needs to devise an anti-dawa counterstrategy that employs the full range of tools at our disposal.

The purpose of this report is to suggest the basis for a new anti-dawa strategy, designed to check the advance of political Islam as an ideology and a movement.

In the first part, I describe the constitution of political Islam: the foundational principles, terminology, and objectives of Islamist ideology.

In the second part, I analyze the infrastructure of political Islam, in particular the institutions and techniques of dawa.

In the third part, I propose a number of policies that I believe will, if properly implemented, halt the spread of political Islam in the United States and perhaps also abroad.

What can I say...sounds great but totally misses the religion itself and the writers really does not fully understand how Islam is built on the six pillars....

I keep going to my standard answer since spending an unusual amount of time with actual jihadists and talking with them about they religious zeal?

In many cases I knew the Koran and Koranic sayings better than they did...

As long as the religion is largely decentralized and allows each Iman or Mullah his own interpretation of the Koran...Shura's and Sunnah's we will have what we see today....

As long as Islam has four main religious educational centers we will have basically a conservative interpretation of Islam coming out of these centers not a reformist...

The reformist moves must come from the bottom up..from each local community driving around their views of what they feel is their correct form of government and society....

The writer completely overlooks this exact development going on in areas under control of FSA in Syria which has over 700 local governing councils which for the ME could be called actual democracy....with free and roughly fair elections with women participating as well.

Again with all the hype of anti Islamists....I have never seen a single Sharia Court in the US..UK...France and or Germany lately...

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:29 AM

BREAKING: "There is no doubt" the Syrian regime gassed its own people. I reviewed all the intel myself - Mattis

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:33 AM

Azor...this kind of sums up the current quality of America leadership coming out of the WH....

Trump on North Korea: “After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it’s not so easy”

http://www.vox.com/2017/4/12/15279654/trump-north-korea-xi-10-minutes?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

NOTICE he has never it appears ever participated in a war exercise being fought in Korea.....

I know of no exercise that does not show the US/Korean forces "winning from the first second"...rather is it a game of simply hanging on until reinforcements arrive or go nuclear immediately....

BUT hey eating cake during the launch of TLAMs against a country that you cannot even remember the name of is what "great leadership"????

That eating cake reminds me a little tad of something someone said during the early days of the French Revolution....

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 06:53 AM

Azor...force sometimes used in a meaningful way can actually stop most issues....

IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following;.....

1. Russia entering Syria
2. Assad using 167-200 times chlorine and sarin against civilians
3. the fall and utter destruction of Aleppo
4. the eventual fall through the rebels of Assad
5. a unified rebel effort against IS
6. no major entry of Iran and shia militias into Syria in the numbers we now are seeing
7. IMPORTANT...not over 2.5M refugees in Europe and in Turkey and Jordan
8. the large amount of war crimes...ie starvation....ethnic cleansing...gas attacks...cluster munitions using incendaries against civilians and residential areas...

BUT we did not see a major strike in 2013 and we have what now????

Now one can spin the reality of the use of force anyway one wants to but sometimes when diplomacy goes nowhere after three years...measured force is the way forward...

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 06:55 AM

Yes open source OSINT can push back....

Open-source citizen journalists are fighting back against Russian hacking of Western institutions - via @techreview
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604084/how-to-fight-back-against-russian-hacking/?utm_campaign=add_this&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=post#

Problem is MSM never really seems "to get it"....until way to late...

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 06:58 AM

Here's one to the shameless liars (including Russian UNSC envoy) claiming the draft res "apportioned blame". Yep, from RussiaToday

NOTICE the verbiage of "reported use of chemical weapons"..exactly the same verbiage used by Lavrov yesterday in his press conference YET Russia vetoed the SEVENTH UNSC Syrian Resolution.....

Stall...stall...deflect...deflect.....typical Russian behavior when caught doing something...same in their shot down of MH17.....

Lavrov calls for an impartial investigation into #SyriaGasAttack

One hour later: Russia vetoes UN resolution to investigate

UNSC is effectively no dead just needs to be buried properly....

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:06 AM

Azor...does this honestly sound like a Russia one can continue to conduct diplomacy with...????

Don’t You Dare Insult Russia Again!” Moscow's UN Rep Screams in New York
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/dont-you-dare-insult-russia-again-moscows-un-rep-screams-in-new-york-57710#

Time for so called diplomacy with Russia has to be ended as it has not worked a single inch since Georgia...

Until Putin fully expects a forceful pushback...only then will he pull back...

AND this is the current WH FP in action...

In a country where journalists are murdered for their work, Rex Tillerson smiled today when a Russian official (Lavrov) demeaned a U.S. journalist.

Especially interesting since Lavrov has lied and lied and lied and still lies....

Tillerson "smiles".....come on????

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:14 AM

Putin's lies to cover up the Khan Sheikhoun gas attack
http://orient-news.net/en/news_show/134957/0/To-cover-up-Khan-Sheikhoun-gas-attack-Putin-lies#…

The Moscow Times‏
Verified account
#Russia’s UN ambassador went full gansta on his British counterpart today in New York. “Look at me when I’m talking!” https://themoscowtimes.com/news/dont-you-dare-insult-russia-again-moscows-un-rep-screams-in-new-york-57710#…

Plus he uses the 2nd person singular, which is extremely impolite in languages like RUS, GER or ESP.
Not noticeable in English though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7EJr3qNEZU#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:18 AM

Hands up if you support the use of chemical weapons against Syrian kids

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:20 AM

Footage
#Russian Cluster Bomb attack on #JisrAlShughur, yesterday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mkDvZm5SyA#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:20 AM

Aazor...currently Russian troops and her PMUs are literally all over the battlefields throughout Syria and have total control of the Command and Control side....so does this look like Russia is not intent in recapturing the entire country....in my world...the answer is yes....

At the same time, air strikes and rockets hit towns in #EastGhouta every few minutes.
Total War against civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4c0FDyF8KQQ#…

No less than 20 towns in #Aleppo, #Hama and #Idlib provinces are under intense #AssadPutin air strikes since midnight.

The #Kremlin regime air force hit Urem al-Kubra w/incendiary bombs last night, setting the town on fire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbiojRiIQTs&feature=youtu.be#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:29 AM

Facts and fiction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91esF6Y1AHM&t=1s#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:32 AM

An #Assad Mi-8 helicopter dropped this #BarrelBomb on #KafrHama.
NO EXPLOSION!
DUD or possibly gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8XxurrSc9U#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:33 AM

Getting reports of a Chlorine attack on #KafrZita (#Hama).
Unconfirmed so far.
Heavy #Assad attacks on it now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZHfDoW-93Q#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:34 AM

And Iranian drone (slight chance, it is US) searched for targets over northern #Hama province yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwXM7vX65N0#…

An #Assad air force Mi-24 dropped bombs in #Daraa city yesterday morning.
Air strikes are continuing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv-q5QeCvmY#…

The #Kremlin regime air force dropped incendiary bombs in #KafrNaha yesterday night.
Now, #Anadan is bombed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=figRevlxGes&feature=youtu.be#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:40 AM

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:43 AM

Lavrov as the great Russian spin master for Putin.....he truly is in "an altered state of reality if he believes this conspiracy myth"....

Lavrov:

- 'We have suspicions that the Nusra Front is being coveted & protected [by the U.S.] in order to march on #Damascus vs. #Assad.'

SOMEHOW he simply overlooks FSA....and will he finally get on board and use the correct term...HTS....Nusra no longer exists as a name..

BUT Russian intel has never really been that good...but really weeks.months behind is a bad sign...

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:44 AM

Lavrov insists OPCW should investigate #Syria CW attack.

BUT WAIT.....
Russia said publicly 2 days ago: OPCW reports weren’t worth paper they’re written on.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:49 AM

Russian info warfare inside UK hard at work....

Guess who just became a “Director” of Ghaith Armanazi’s British Syrian Society?

RT’s favorite Brit, Peter Ford:

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/Rlbdgz0UfwBL_fx1qV-T6HRnhtw/appointments#…

Guess who organized the infamous #Damascus “conference” attended by Western analysts & journalists?

= The British #Syria Society.

Who's the head of #Syria's chemical weapons program?

= Amr Armanazi (L)

Who's the head of British #Syria Society?

= Ghaith Armanazi (R)

More info on the Armanazis can be found here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sarin-chiefs-sons-are-uk-citizens-syria-chemical-war-attack-fsnkrk6fw#…

Here: https://en.zamanalwsl.net/news/25201.html#

& here: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/07/syrias-chemical-weapons-kill-chain-assad-sarin/#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:55 AM

Four months later, what happened to the former rebel stronghold in East Aleppo and who lives there now? http://irinnews.org/analysis/2017/04/12/eastern-aleppo-under-al-assad#…

Say goodbye to the chemical weapons warehouse and hello to the Saudi missile for your Khan Sheikhoun conspiracy needs

THIS individual is a confirmed Russian troll.....and who has been extremely active since the gas attack....

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 08:00 AM

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...this is the fourth confirmed YPG/PKK deliberately misdirected US CAS which hit either friendly units and or Syrian IDPs....killing over a hundred and wounding far more than killed....

Major Arab Brigade withdraws from #Raqqa #Tabqah front following @CJTFOIR airstrike which killed 17 fighters, blame #YPG 4 wrong coordinates
SO now there are no Arab units within SDF for the US to claim that their attack on Raqqa will strictly involved Arab units...not Kurdish PKK units...

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 08:06 AM

WELL worth rereading...and rereading again....LEAST we forget who the Russians are actually supporting these days in Syria..

The Assad Regime’s Collusion With ISIS and al-Qaeda: Assessing The Evidence. @KyleWOrton
FROM MARCH 2014
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2014/03/24/assessing-evidence-collusion-assad-isis-qaeda/

As late as 2012 Iraqi state officials were complaining publicly about #Assad's support for #IS and Ba'ath insurgents
https://goo.gl/h6d2Uj

Here, in Sept. 2009,
http://www.france24.com/en/20090901-maliki-blames-syria-attacks-assad-denies-claim-#…
in 18 months, Assad had a Damascus moment? Then released jihadists? Doesn't take a genius.

2016: case finds Assad liable for the 2005 Amman bombings.
"but Bashar is secular! he fights terrorists!"
http://www.leagle.com/decision/In%20FDCO%2020160302C24/THUNEIBAT%20v.%20SYRIAN%20ARAB%20REPUBLIC#…

2008: U.S Court finds Assad and his Intel liable for IS beheading two Americans in 2004.
https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2006cv1500-42#…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 08:13 AM

PYD remains heavily dependent on Assad's state, could remove isolation by opening up to Iran.
http://washin.st/2ptANzl

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 08:15 AM

Why the Russians Aren’t Likely to Break With Assad
Vali Nasr Apr 11, 2017
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/04/russia-tillerson-putin-syria-assad-chemical-weapons/522528/?utm_source=twb

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 08:19 AM

Vladimir #Putin is bound to safeguard the cross until #Russian empire is restored - say #Serb veterans in #Bosnia

http://balkans.aljazeera.net/vijesti/u-visegradu-otkriven-krst-rusima-poginulim-u-vojsci-rs

Interestingly many have forgotten that the Russian Orthodox Church called for a Crusade when Putin announced he was heading to Syria...to fight IS.....

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 08:34 AM

Today @AFP will publish the latest interview with a mild-mannered guy who's exterminating his own people.
Exciting.
https://www.google.es/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-assad-regime-kills-so-many-detainees-it-amounts-to-extermination-of-civilian-population-un-a6860876.html%3Famp#

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 08:50 AM

SO will Trump now launch TLAMs again due to this massive disregard for international humanitarian law by both Assad and Putin????

Seriously doubt it.....

Videos & photograph evidence from NW Syria show Assad regime/Russia using prohibited incendiary weapons. Via @hrw
https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/04/12/incendiary-weapons-burn-again-syria#

Incendiary weapons, as the term is understood in international humanitarian law (IHL) describes weapons that act mainly through fire and heat. Napalm and white phosphorous are probably the best known incendiary substances used in incendiary weapons.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 09:10 AM

Lavrov yesterday during his rant in Moscow stated the US had provided no evidence concerning Syrian involvement in the chemical attack.....

Well he should not have wished for it.....quietly released today the not so subtle YES we have it on SIGINT....so you Lavrov are wrong......

U.S. intel has intercepts of Assad military communication with chemical experts ahead of sarin...
https://www.unian.info/world/174904-us-intel-has-intercepts-of-assad-military-communication-with-chemical-experts-ahead-of-sarin-attack.html#

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 09:18 AM

FSA News @FSAPlatform
#Syria || #Damascus
Regime looting civilian homes on Hafiz St & Tawila Rd in #Barzeh yday, taking everything including internal power lines

US ultra rightists actively supporting Assad and Putin....
How a pair of self-publicists wound up as apologists for Assad
http://www.economist.com/news/united-st
ates/21720627-trail-damascus-alex-jones-and-mike-cernovich-how-pair-self-publicists#

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 09:25 AM

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 09:27 AM

Need some light humor today after all the Assad/Putin incendiary cluster strikes the last few days...

A Baathist, a Putinist, a Stalinist and an Antisemite walk into a bar, the bartender says: "The anti-war meeting is upstairs"

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 09:36 AM

Azor.....that "ten foot barge pole" just keeps coming back and back and back.....

BOMBSHELL: Ex-MI6 chief accuses Trump of secretly borrowing $ from Russia to keep his property empire afloat
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3319821/ex-mi6-chief-accuses-donald-trump-of-secretly-borrowing-from-russia-to-keep-his-property-empire-afloat-during-the-financial-crisis/#

Not sure just how he is going to sue the Sun for defamation...

So was the TLAM strike a Wag the Dog v2.0 moment or a "red line in the sand thingy"????

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 03:59 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:07 PM

THIS sums up the Trump FP....and that of his merry band of WH brothers....

Trump means nothing he says

NATO "no longer obsolete...America has the best friends & the best allies in the world"

"The #NATO Alliance has been the bulwark of international peace and security" ever since its founding 68 years ago -- @POTUS Donald Trump

Again Trump changes his very own statements....

Trump clarifies meaning when he says US "go it alone": "going it alone means going it with lots of other nations"
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/04/12/joint-press-conference-president-trump-and-nato-secretary-general#
…

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:19 PM

Latakia: #FSA blowing up #Assad regime position in Northern #Latakia with #TOW today.

The regime's mode of disinformation amounts to: "I know you are but what am I?"
http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.783270#

Russian MoD
In order to monitor and observe the situation, Russian UAVs have been sent to the region of Deir ez-Zor

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:26 PM

Palmyra: Video shows the #ISIS attack against pro-#Assad forces near the #Palmyra Silos yesterday.

An agreement is being negotiated to hand over Tell Rifaat and Menagh in northern Aleppo to FSA by the Syrian Democratic Forces.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:31 PM

Syria's Assad says Idlib chemical attack 'fabrication' - AFP interview
http://reut.rs/2pxE4xr

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 04:35 PM

MIT Tech Review
✔
@techreview
Russia gets “the true nature of the battlefield” in a way the West does not. The power lies in information.
http://trib.al/7ibtNhY

Azor

04-13-2017, 04:41 PM

I have from the very beginning stated...with a Putin and an Assad if one does not confront and confront them daily with all forms of measures they will pull back exactly one inch wait for the West to get lazy which takes exactly two weeks and then moves forward again…

Diplomacy gets you nowhere...AND you can check my comments in SWC entered right after the annexation of Crimea…concerning the fact that the US pushed diplomacy was doomed to fail and it has...

They both respect you if you respond as they would as they can judge how then to react...BUT get hit by TLAMs and total verbal confrontation in UNSC...then they are confused and lost and grope for what to do...which is exactly what we are seeing in Moscow right now...

I suppose that this is the highest compliment that Trump Administration can expect to receive from you ;) After all, who was it who combined Tomahawks (Sen. Warren was aghast) and a flurry of diplomatic blows. Not once did Obama ever wrong-foot Putin or knock him on his ass.

As for Tillerson, I am not concerned with the MSM’s opinions, as the news cycle depends upon stark binary judgments.

Over time, we have come to learn that Putin was quite anxious about a U.S. response to his occupation of Crimea, not unlike how Hitler was anxious about an Anglo-French response to his re-militarization of the Rhineland. One can only imagine the other outcomes possible had Obama sailed a Carrier Strike Group through the Bosporus to pay a visit to say Constanța in the Spring of 2014.

Putin threatens war at every turn...that is his standard threat...in the end he does nothing as he does in fact fear a direct war as he knows he will lose....

The West on the other hand is actually afraid of war and pulls back under the bluster...thus allowing him to move forward unimpeded..

Check every move he has made since Georgia...you will notice the pattern...if I can see it then the NSC should be able to see it...

I largely agree. Moscow gets quite ornery when it doesn’t get its way, but it is all bark and no bite.

The issue here is not necessarily a lack of intelligence, knowledge or experience on the part of the U.S. national security establishment – except where Rhodes, Rice, Clinton and Power are concerned – but of national objectives and constraints.

Examining the landscape from the perspective of the capital markets, America is comparable to an investor who has earned very high returns over a long period of time, who wants to preserve her capital, requires minimal income, and who only needs to keep up with inflation. On the other hand, Russia believes that her portfolio is far too small to meet her needs, she needs income, and she wants to grow her portfolio aggressively. Both investors are rationally averse to risk, but Russia needs to take more risk in order to produce the returns that she wants. Her focus is on performance; America’s focus is on risk-management.

Now, America has new objectives and a higher tolerance for risk. Is it because she needs the money? No. It’s because she now wants it.

IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following…

Are you going to weep and gnash your teeth about the President you didn’t have, or deal with the President you do have?

[QUOTE=OUTLAW 09] Now one can spin the reality of the use of force anyway one wants to but sometimes when diplomacy goes nowhere after three years...measured force is the way forward…

I disagree. Obama’s diplomatic goal was to return to the status quo and cease all hostilities so that he could get back to hectoring Americans on firearm violence and the 10% of murdered black males whose killers were of another race.

Is it any wonder why the revisionist powers failed to comply? They too want to “move forward into broad, sunlit uplands”, and unfortunately, that meant disturbing Obama’s beauty sleep.

Trump will have to articulate a vision of the future. That future will include new coalitions, new allies, new neutrals, new rivals and new adversaries.

If history rhymes, the U.S. will probably forge a new coalition to contain China, and that coalition will come to include Russia. For its part, China will form its own coalition, which will include much of Central Asia, a few of its neighbors and various African states.

There will be a risk that the European part of the coalition, including Russia, will integrate into a bloc on the order of the Warsaw Pact, but such is life.

Azor...does this honestly sound like a Russia one can continue to conduct diplomacy with...

Time for so called diplomacy with Russia has to be ended as it has not worked a single inch since Georgia...

Until Putin fully expects a forceful pushback...only then will he pull back...

Moscow’s angry. They’re allowed to blow off steam. They’re not allowed to arm the Taliban, fortify Iran or shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.

Azor...currently Russian troops and her PMUs are literally all over the battlefields throughout Syria and have total control of the Command and Control side...so does this look like Russia is not intent in recapturing the entire country...in my world...the answer is yes...

Again, Michael Kofman and Mark Galeotti disagree with you. I doubt that Putin is averse to Assad reconquering the entire country, but he is averse to increasing Russia’s commitment. Putin’s objectives in Syria are met.

Azor...your core problem is that you do not speak to Russians on a daily basis as I do often here in Berlin..all in their 20/30s and they are not going back home any time soon....

The trucker strike right now is extremely well known inside Russia little known outside Russia and it goes to the heart of the Russian economy slash corruption.

You quote figures and percentages BUT in the end it is the society that right now sees their real income sinking to levels not seen since the 90s..food costs exploding and getting higher with each day and the corruption that the opposition talks about and gets arrested for talking about is up front and in their face and they blame Putin no one else...

Russian inflation spiked in 2015, but is now at reasonable levels and below the 10-year annual mean. Russia’s GDP per capita in constant prices and PPP suffered declines, but are again comparatively much better than before 2008 and of course the 1990s.

Like it or not, this is a blip compared to the chaos of the 1990s. This is not to say that Putin is an outstanding steward of the Russian economy, as given his starting point and the commodity super-cycle, a monkey with an abacus could have balanced the budget.

Russia’s experience is actually very similar to that of Brazil’s, although the latter spends relatively little on defense. In fact both Russia and Brazil seem to be moving into a recovery, and they represent two of the best opportunities for fixed income investors.

Unfortunately, you are working on anecdotal evidence. Russia has slipped, but not fallen. Of course, the electorate is fickle and the longer Putin’s reign continues, the dimmer its memories of Yeltsin and the Communist Party will be. As Putin is increasingly judged solely on his own stewardship, the pressure to grow the economy and living standards increases and the less appetite the electorate has for “managed democracy”.

At present, talk of a Russian collapse is about as sensational and inaccurate as talk of a Chinese one. Putin has considerable room for maneuver, but much will depend upon the people that he has appointed to regulate the economy. Putin is not unlike one of those Roman Emperors who spent their careers campaigning with the legions, while surrogates governed the Empire from Rome.

Azor

04-13-2017, 05:07 PM

MIT Tech Review
✔
@techreview
Russia gets “the true nature of the battlefield” in a way the West does not. The power lies in information.
http://trib.al/7ibtNhY

Pollock doesn't seem to get it either.

Russia is using a whole-of-government approach, including generous use of propaganda, to fight what it regards as a conflict with the West. The West does not agree that there is even a conflict, whereas it did during the Cold War.

There is nothing new here. Plausible deniability and stunts such as Crimea only work during small proxy wars of choice where there is no direct great power war.

The West now believes that there is a conflict between it and Russia, and has begun countering Russia's non-military or "soft power" offensives.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 05:27 PM

I suppose that this is the highest compliment that Trump Administration can expect to receive from you ;) After all, who was it who combined Tomahawks (Sen. Warren was aghast) and a flurry of diplomatic blows. Not once did Obama ever wrong-foot Putin or knock him on his ass.

As for Tillerson, I am not concerned with the MSM’s opinions, as the news cycle depends upon stark binary judgments.

Over time, we have come to learn that Putin was quite anxious about a U.S. response to his occupation of Crimea, not unlike how Hitler was anxious about an Anglo-French response to his re-militarization of the Rhineland. One can only imagine the other outcomes possible had Obama sailed a Carrier Strike Group through the Bosporus to pay a visit to say Constanța in the Spring of 2014.

I largely agree. Moscow gets quite ornery when it doesn’t get its way, but it is all bark and no bite.

The issue here is not necessarily a lack of intelligence, knowledge or experience on the part of the U.S. national security establishment – except where Rhodes, Rice, Clinton and Power are concerned – but of national objectives and constraints.

Examining the landscape from the perspective of the capital markets, America is comparable to an investor who has earned very high returns over a long period of time, who wants to preserve her capital, requires minimal income, and who only needs to keep up with inflation. On the other hand, Russia believes that her portfolio is far too small to meet her needs, she needs income, and she wants to grow her portfolio aggressively. Both investors are rationally averse to risk, but Russia needs to take more risk in order to produce the returns that she wants. Her focus is on performance; America’s focus is on risk-management.

Now, America has new objectives and a higher tolerance for risk. Is it because she needs the money? No. It’s because she now wants it.

[QUOTE=OUTLAW 09]

IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following…

Are you going to weep and gnash your teeth about the President you didn’t have, or deal with the President you do have?

I disagree. Obama’s diplomatic goal was to return to the status quo and cease all hostilities so that he could get back to hectoring Americans on firearm violence and the 10% of murdered black males whose killers were of another race.

Is it any wonder why the revisionist powers failed to comply? They too want to “move forward into broad, sunlit uplands”, and unfortunately, that meant disturbing Obama’s beauty sleep.

Trump will have to articulate a vision of the future. That future will include new coalitions, new allies, new neutrals, new rivals and new adversaries.

If history rhymes, the U.S. will probably forge a new coalition to contain China, and that coalition will come to include Russia. For its part, China will form its own coalition, which will include much of Central Asia, a few of its neighbors and various African states.

There will be a risk that the European part of the coalition, including Russia, will integrate into a bloc on the order of the Warsaw Pact, but such is life.

Moscow’s angry. They’re allowed to blow off steam. They’re not allowed to arm the Taliban, fortify Iran or shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.

Again, Michael Kofman and Mark Galeotti disagree with you. I doubt that Putin is averse to Assad reconquering the entire country, but he is averse to increasing Russia’s commitment. Putin’s objectives in Syria are met.

Russian inflation spiked in 2015, but is now at reasonable levels and below the 10-year annual mean. Russia’s GDP per capita in constant prices and PPP suffered declines, but are again comparatively much better than before 2008 and of course the 1990s.

Like it or not, this is a blip compared to the chaos of the 1990s. This is not to say that Putin is an outstanding steward of the Russian economy, as given his starting point and the commodity super-cycle, a monkey with an abacus could have balanced the budget.

Russia’s experience is actually very similar to that of Brazil’s, although the latter spends relatively little on defense. In fact both Russia and Brazil seem to be moving into a recovery, and they represent two of the best opportunities for fixed income investors.

Unfortunately, you are working on anecdotal evidence. Russia has slipped, but not fallen. Of course, the electorate is fickle and the longer Putin’s reign continues, the dimmer its memories of Yeltsin and the Communist Party will be. As Putin is increasingly judged solely on his own stewardship, the pressure to grow the economy and living standards increases and the less appetite the electorate has for “managed democracy”.

At present, talk of a Russian collapse is about as sensational and inaccurate as talk of a Chinese one. Putin has considerable room for maneuver, but much will depend upon the people that he has appointed to regulate the economy. Putin is not unlike one of those Roman Emperors who spent their careers campaigning with the legions, while surrogates governed the Empire from Rome.

1. the brain drain is massive more than the Putin government wants you and or me to know about

2. quality of the education system has dropped badly with those 20-30 year olds I talk to coming to the West to either continue their education or find far better paying ones with what they have....

3. check the latest figures for national reserves...

4. check the number of failed banks against the total number that existed in JAN 2016

5. check the wave of corruption arrests as Putin attempts to co op the oppositions demo complaints.....

6. could continue.....

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 05:30 PM

I suppose that this is the highest compliment that Trump Administration can expect to receive from you ;) After all, who was it who combined Tomahawks (Sen. Warren was aghast) and a flurry of diplomatic blows. Not once did Obama ever wrong-foot Putin or knock him on his ass.

As for Tillerson, I am not concerned with the MSM’s opinions, as the news cycle depends upon stark binary judgments.

Over time, we have come to learn that Putin was quite anxious about a U.S. response to his occupation of Crimea, not unlike how Hitler was anxious about an Anglo-French response to his re-militarization of the Rhineland. One can only imagine the other outcomes possible had Obama sailed a Carrier Strike Group through the Bosporus to pay a visit to say Constanța in the Spring of 2014.

I largely agree. Moscow gets quite ornery when it doesn’t get its way, but it is all bark and no bite.

The issue here is not necessarily a lack of intelligence, knowledge or experience on the part of the U.S. national security establishment – except where Rhodes, Rice, Clinton and Power are concerned – but of national objectives and constraints.

Examining the landscape from the perspective of the capital markets, America is comparable to an investor who has earned very high returns over a long period of time, who wants to preserve her capital, requires minimal income, and who only needs to keep up with inflation. On the other hand, Russia believes that her portfolio is far too small to meet her needs, she needs income, and she wants to grow her portfolio aggressively. Both investors are rationally averse to risk, but Russia needs to take more risk in order to produce the returns that she wants. Her focus is on performance; America’s focus is on risk-management.

Now, America has new objectives and a higher tolerance for risk. Is it because she needs the money? No. It’s because she now wants it.

[QUOTE=OUTLAW 09]

IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following…

Are you going to weep and gnash your teeth about the President you didn’t have, or deal with the President you do have?

I disagree. Obama’s diplomatic goal was to return to the status quo and cease all hostilities so that he could get back to hectoring Americans on firearm violence and the 10% of murdered black males whose killers were of another race.

Is it any wonder why the revisionist powers failed to comply? They too want to “move forward into broad, sunlit uplands”, and unfortunately, that meant disturbing Obama’s beauty sleep.

Trump will have to articulate a vision of the future. That future will include new coalitions, new allies, new neutrals, new rivals and new adversaries.

If history rhymes, the U.S. will probably forge a new coalition to contain China, and that coalition will come to include Russia. For its part, China will form its own coalition, which will include much of Central Asia, a few of its neighbors and various African states.

There will be a risk that the European part of the coalition, including Russia, will integrate into a bloc on the order of the Warsaw Pact, but such is life.

Moscow’s angry. They’re allowed to blow off steam. They’re not allowed to arm the Taliban, fortify Iran or shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.

Again, Michael Kofman and Mark Galeotti disagree with you. I doubt that Putin is averse to Assad reconquering the entire country, but he is averse to increasing Russia’s commitment. Putin’s objectives in Syria are met.

Russian inflation spiked in 2015, but is now at reasonable levels and below the 10-year annual mean. Russia’s GDP per capita in constant prices and PPP suffered declines, but are again comparatively much better than before 2008 and of course the 1990s.

Like it or not, this is a blip compared to the chaos of the 1990s. This is not to say that Putin is an outstanding steward of the Russian economy, as given his starting point and the commodity super-cycle, a monkey with an abacus could have balanced the budget.

Russia’s experience is actually very similar to that of Brazil’s, although the latter spends relatively little on defense. In fact both Russia and Brazil seem to be moving into a recovery, and they represent two of the best opportunities for fixed income investors.

Unfortunately, you are working on anecdotal evidence. Russia has slipped, but not fallen. Of course, the electorate is fickle and the longer Putin’s reign continues, the dimmer its memories of Yeltsin and the Communist Party will be. As Putin is increasingly judged solely on his own stewardship, the pressure to grow the economy and living standards increases and the less appetite the electorate has for “managed democracy”.

At present, talk of a Russian collapse is about as sensational and inaccurate as talk of a Chinese one. Putin has considerable room for maneuver, but much will depend upon the people that he has appointed to regulate the economy. Putin is not unlike one of those Roman Emperors who spent their careers campaigning with the legions, while surrogates governed the Empire from Rome.

Azor..so Trump is what apologizing for his comments...and the comments from Tillerson and Haley?????

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump 3h
Things will work out fine between the U.S.A. and Russia. At the right time everyone will come to their senses & there will be lasting peace!

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 05:35 PM

Syria's Assad says Idlib chemical attack 'fabrication' - AFP interview
http://reut.rs/2pxE4xr

The smoking gun…

- U.S intel intercepted comms of #Syria “military & chemical experts discussing preparations" prior to 4 April CW attack.

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 05:51 PM

Anatomy of a Sarin Bomb Explosion (Part I)
by @DanKaszeta
via @bellingcat
http://bit.ly/2obN6it

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 06:02 PM

Combat reports for northern Syria are right now extremely quiet....

REALLY extremely quiet...too quiet actually...

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 06:07 PM

Azor....that "ten foot barge pole"...needs to get longer...

Carter Page tells me he can't guarantee he did not discuss easing of sanctions w Russian contacts; “Let’s see what the FISA transcripts say”

Wow. So GCHQ did warn US intel about links between Trump team and #Russia intelligence, although didn't tap Trump
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/british-spies-first-to-spot-trump-team-links-russia#

They now have specific concrete & corroborative evidence of collusion,” the source said.

Germany, Poland and Estonia also passed intelligence on contacts between Trump officials and Moscow to US, according to sources, in 2016

Maybe also Dutch and French.

Who says transatlantic intel sharing is moribund?

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump 3h
Things will work out fine between the U.S.A. and Russia. At the right time everyone will come to their senses & there will be lasting peace!

Annnd now we know why the TrumPutin team was so desperate to smear #GCHQ -- with help from RT and its US parter in disinformation, @FoxNews

"The alleged conversations were picked up by chance as part of routine surveillance of Russian intelligence assets."
It happens.

Virtually the entire Western SIGINT alliance knew Trump was in cahoots with Putin.
American voters, not so much.

Same source has told me they have received audio of Trump directly involved with arranging financial arrangements with Russian sources ......

First arrests may be as soon as next week.

Justice Dept finds 90 pages of Voting Machines Malfunctions in Swing States. PA, FL, NC, WI and MI.

CrowBat

04-13-2017, 06:28 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 06:35 PM

Not exactly sure just what/who a single 11 ton bomb is suppose to impress.....

From 2003, worth noting MOAB has been seen as a PSYOPS tool.

Twitter needs to Stop being weird about the 11-ton MOAB. For some perspective, here is a B-52 starting to drop 81 1,000 pound bombs.

Now a three B52 flight "arch light strike" gets everyone's attention.......and that for miles.......even the North Vietnamese Army had a high respect of an "arch light strike".....as did the Iraqi Army in Kuwait....

Was caught once inside the danger close range of an arch light drop and the ground had three foot high waves rippling for minutes much like a major earthquake...now that get's your attention....

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 06:44 PM

Not exactly sure just what/who a single 11 ton bomb is suppose to impress.....

From 2003, worth noting MOAB has been seen as a PSYOPS tool.

Twitter needs to Stop being weird about the 11-ton MOAB. For some perspective, here is a B-52 starting to drop 81 1,000 pound bombs.

Now a three B52 flight "arch light strike" gets everyone's attention.......and that for miles.......even the North Vietnamese Army had a high respect of an "arch light strike".....as did the Iraqi Army in Kuwait....

Here's the father of all bombs: Russia's answer to the MOAB
http://read.bi/2pbqFi7

OUTLAW 09

04-13-2017, 07:14 PM

Combat reports for northern Syria are right now extremely quiet....

REALLY extremely quiet...too quiet actually...

Ahrar al-Sham calls on all rebel groups and capable #Syria|n men to fight against #Assad.

Azor

04-13-2017, 08:36 PM

Clashes with ISIS in Yarmuk basin, south-west Daraa (http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/13-april-clashes-with-isis-in-yarmuk-basin-southwest-daraa)

Rebels targeting ISIS with SPG-9 in south-west Daraa (http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/13-april-rebels-targeting-isis-with-spg9-in-southwest-daraa)

Another video as Southern front clashing with ISIS in south-west Daraa (http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/13-april-another-video-as-southern-front-clashing-with-isis)

Azor

04-13-2017, 08:44 PM

Back in 2013, we've had plenty of discussions to all such topics - just check the older threads (if they're still around?) - and the near unitary reaction on this very forum was, 'go there if you like, but Syria is not important and thus no issue of the US national interest'.

I doubt that a single punitive strike 2013 would have deterred Russia from intervening nor Assad's prosecution of a total war.

There still would have had to have been a CW deal, probably with Russian brokering, and Russia would have intervened earlier.

I do believe that Assad would have been deterred from using CWs again, that he would have been more forthright about his stockpiles and production facilities, and that the rebels would have felt that the U.S. cared.

Now that Assad has minimal supplies of Sarin, punishing him is far less risky than in 2013, when he was on the ropes and could have lost control of his CWs. However, it was certainly riskier in terms of a great power confrontation, given the expanded Iranian and Russian presence.

Azor

04-13-2017, 10:32 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 03:49 AM

Firstly, I was and still am opposed to the U.S. launching a military campaign to defeat Assad and remove him from office. I do not believe that his removal would hasten the war's end or lessen the carnage. The U.S. would also then bear a certain responsibility for the failure of the Syrian state and the continued violence. Nor do I believe that occupying and reconstructing Syria over a period of decades is in the U.S. national interest.

However, I am not averse to a palace coup wherein Assad is replaced by a more reasonable Alawi leader who would be satisfied with an armistice that involves the creation of an Alawi enclave and the retreat of Alawi forces to this enclave. Such an arrangement would also pertain to the Christian and Druze minorities which are neutral or have been fighting alongside the Alawis. This would reduce the sectarianism of the conflict and allow the Syrian Sunni Arabs to concentrate on defeating Al Qaeda and Daesh, and consolidating a Sunni Arab enclave in the central and eastern parts of Syria. The Syrian Kurds already have Rojava, however, the ethnic cleansing would have to cease and borders demarcated.

Would Russia be opposed to such an outcome? Probably not, given its history of managing various unresolved conflicts and fluidly transitioning from low-level war to full-scale war to ceasefire. Russia would retain its basing rights in Alawi Latakia and guarantee that the Sunni Arabs did not begin sectarian cleansing against the minorities with whom they have been fighting.

So who is the gorilla in the room? Iran, which brings me to my second point...

Secondly, Iran's intervention in Syria is an invasion by any means. Although Iran was invited in by the Syrian government, I regard this invitation in the same light as the Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian Hungarian, Czech and Afghan invitations extended to the Soviet Union, or Italy's invitation to Germany in 1943. Why?

From the outset of the civil uprising against Assad in 2011, it was clear that most protesters were from the Sunni Arab majority, from the same community that had risen up against Assad's father, and which the Assads had marginalized in the military and civil service, in favor of their own sect. Assad's brutal response to the uprising involved not only turning Alawi intelligence officers and paramilitaries (Shabiha) on the protesters, but also the advice and direct participation of Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

I cannot see how a leader who is oppressing the majority of his citizens and who is dependent upon minority support and foreign forces, can be considered a legitimate head of state. His invitations to Iran and Russia are about as legitimate in my opinion as any invitations from any other faction in the war.

Therefore, Iran is an invader, no matter how many Petains or Quislings it can point to.

Thirdly, there may be a way through the chaos of the Civil War to intervene successfully, by driving out the foreign forces upon which Assad depends upon for offensive campaigns. The Syrian Alawis, Druze and Christians can probably be counted upon to defend their homes and families, but there is mounting evidence that they are weary of subduing the Sunni Arab majority, let alone the Kurds.

Currently, Assad relies on the following (https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/112916_McInnis_Testimony.pdf) foreign forces led by Iran (20,000 to 30,000):

Revolutionary Guards - from Iran (8,000 to 10,000)
Regular Forces - from Iran (~1,000)
Hezbollah - from Lebanon (6,000 to 8,000)
Kata'ib Hezbollah - from Iraq (1,000 to 3,000)
Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq - from Iraq (1,000 to 3,000)
Liwa Fatemiyoun - from Afghanistan and Iran (2,000 to 3,000)
Liwa Zainabiyoun - from Pakistan (1,000)

Exact estimates of fighting strength are difficult to come by, given casualties and rotations. According to the NCRI/MEK (https://www.mojahedin.org/links/books/950616_Presentation-1Sept2016.pdf), Iran has cobbled together a force of 60,000 to 73,000, but these numbers seem grossly inflated, and are not supported by the numbers of combatants observed in various pro-Assad campaigns.

Of these forces, only Hezbollah and Kata'ib Hezbollah are designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), accounting for roughly 1/3 of the pro-Assad foreign strength.

I would roughly recommend:

Designating the other paramilitaries as FTOs as well as the Quds Force
Signaling to all participants that non-Syrian FTOs must depart and that they will be subject to attack if observed in Sunni Arab or Kurdish areas (i.e. outside of Latakia and Damascus)
Signaling that the U.S. government has no intention of ousting Assad or allowing Latakia to be overrun
Making the Free Syrian Army agree to assume a defensive and static posture
Attack any non-Syrian pro-Assad FTO that engages in hostilities against Sunni Arabs
Attack any Islamist Sunni Arab offensive into non-Sunni areas (e.g. Al Qaeda's various derivatives)

This may drive a wedge between Assad and his people, as well as between Iran and its auxiliaries. It will also be an arrangement that Russia and most Syrians can live with, and will not involve the use of U.S. ground forces. Thoughts?

Azor........the rebels for the last several years have stated...push out Assad and then we can focus and will focus on IS as they are not Syrians......

IF and I use the term IF..if in fact Obama had been willing to completely ground the Syrian AF and their helicopters there would have been no

1. sarin gas attacks
2. no chlorine barrel bombs
3. no barrel bombs
4. limited very limited refugee flows towards Europe
5. would have greatly limited starvation...ethnic cleansings
6. potentially facilitated the removal of Assad

The key even today is in fact the removal of Assad as the majority of his society the Sunni's demand it..BUT it clashes with the Iranian green crescent objectives....

Simply stated no Iranian troops and no Russian troops and AF.....should remain in Syria otherwise I hate to say this we will see an actual partition of Syria into an assad zone...a Sunni/Turkish zone and a Kurdish zone setting up conflict in Syria for the next two decades at a minimum....

That is clear to anyone who had been tracking events in Syria....

BTW check the posted map which clearly now depicts this green crescent that I have been writing about here since say about the late 2004 timeframe and now in 2017 we are seeing in an accurate map.....the "green crescent".....

Iraq was and still is the cornerstone........

BTW...I am after participating in three wars in my lifetime not a warmonger by any means..I believe that diplomacy has it's place but when it fails one must be able and willing to use force to resolve issues...

Just before heading now to work even on a German holiday as we are tracking a botnet that does not stop for holidays...I just saw a US produced production on Reagan and the Cold War/Iran Contra etc.....as I was in Berlin during those SDI days and the US Pershing and cruise missile debates which then resulted in the INF being signed....

Interestingly the US pulled out all Pershing's and land based cruise missiles AND stopped SDI THEN in 2015 we learned initially that Putin directly and completely violated INF with no resulting punishment as he feels that hobbled Russia....

Notice the crescent shape of the map...then expand that crescent into AFG and on to Pakistan....THEN you will notice that it accurately follows the old Silk Trading Road....

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 04:09 AM

BTW...no one is applauding for a ground invasion using US just finally and completely provide the FSA the same support the US has been giving the Communist Kurdish US named terrorist groups PKK/Hezbollah...including CAS....remove Assad and then focus completely on IS....letting FSA handle that as it is a Muslim issue not an US issue...

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 04:44 AM

This CENTCOM spokesman's comments are insane and so is the fact that he was granted anonymity to make them http://thehill.com/policy/defense/328781-why-the-us-dropped-the-mother-of-all-bombs-in-afghanistan#…

THIS is exactly just how naïve this CENTCOM is...in VN the NVA/VC had underground bunkers that resisted shelling's and direct bombing that were destroyed by B52 strikes. of 15tons on three oases that virtually killed most inside those bunkers by blast waves...the same thing is just as easily done in AFG against caves..actually in the end far more effective than a single bomb...

This shows me that you have a leadership generation that tends to agree with Trumpo's thinking and that is dangerous....there must be a true civilian control of the military not vice versa....

ALSO explains just how they can overlook the simple facts that they have been arming and training and providing CAs and SOF support to multiple US named terrorist groups inside Syria..the Communist Kurdish PKK...Iranian Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia Hezbollah....

For Trumpland bombing is back in business. Smart in Syria. Big in Afghanistan. More in Yemen. But bombs can never substitute for a strategic foreign policy in a set strategy.

Bombing simply covers up that fact as it is again simply a tactical move on the FP battlefield.....kind of like lashing out with no thought behind it to just prove how strong you are....AND that you can go it alone...

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 04:47 AM

FIRST Russia asked for CWs evidence THEN DoD complies THEN this Russia MoD response...

Was the same Russian denial drill in eastern Ukraine when US stated Russians were inside Ukraine and posted sat photos of their troops and equipment....

Rus MoD comments on alleged conversation interceptions of Syrian AF chemical attack preparations in Khan Sheikhun
http://s.mil.ru/2pe9jOC

BUT REMEMBER there are intercepts concerning the Russian shot down of MH17 that they are still claiming are "fakes"....

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 05:01 AM

AND Trump thinks IS is going to go peacefully into history...sorry .......

Mosul: #US supplied 140 M1A1 Abrams tanks to #Iraq between 2010 & 2012. #ISIS destroyed 47 Abrams tanks during the #Mosul battle.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 05:01 AM

Major reason for it being quiet in Syria.....

Sand storm in #Homs Province.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 07:50 AM

Syria #RuAF bombing #Idlib province despite ongoing evacuation of 8000 civilians.

Forced displacement is a crime, extremists from both sides reshaping Syria's demographics toward a long sectarian conflict

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 07:58 AM

You know Assad's propaganda is spewing some epic BS when even @mod_russia feels compelled to deny it.

davidbfpo

04-14-2017, 07:59 AM

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 08:04 AM

OPCW Director General:

- Preliminary assessments show the accusation of #Assad CW responsibility is “credible.”
http://wapo.st/2pa2VLi?tid=ss_tw#

REMEMBER this is the same OPCW that Putin claimed you cannot trust their research BUT then he wanted them to investigate the attack...or so he stated during UNSC debate.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 08:22 AM

WOW...a whole 36 killed.....and that works out to be exactly 611.11 pounds of explosive per killed IS fighter.....NOW if we look at the cost factor THEN Trump used roughly 104M USDs per killed IS fighter....

Sounds like a great "win" for Trump's show.....

I am counting 36 as the report says AT least...well it could have been far fewer actually....

US military's largest non-nuclear bomb killed at least 36 militants of the Islamic State group, Afghan officials say
http://u.afp.com/4Q9V

Not so sure that figure is even correct unless one did immediate BDA on the ground afterwards.....

US President Donald Trump had earlier called the mission "very, very successful."

AFG Sources "We don't know anything about the casualties so far, but since it is a Daesh (IS) stronghold we think a lot of Daesh fighters may have been killed."

Syrian social media comment....

Can't disable a runway, but can blow up a mountain.

BUT WAIT...comment from the amazing leader......

Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
The reason you don't generally hit runways is that they are easy and inexpensive to quickly fix (fill in and top)!

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 08:33 AM

FSA News @FSAPlatform
#Infographic || #Syria

Complete updated list of militia groups fighting for the #Assad regime in Syria

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 08:39 AM

Leave it up to the Brits to sum up US FP...

Headline of the Day: "#Trump's foreign policy: On a whim and a prayer", in @TheEconomist

Where these people all there again when he dropped MOAB???

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 08:47 AM

Syria strike that killed 18 US-allied Arab fighters was third US-led airstrike in a month that may have killed civilians or allies.

AND surprise surprise CENTCOM publicly stated they would investigate all of them...but not a single solitary attempt to do so...

There is a growing sense that the US led air strikes have actually killed far more Syrian civilians and friendly troops than all of the Russian/Assad air strikes during the same period....in the last three months.....

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 08:59 AM

Airstrikes on Highway south west of #Idlib city

Not named as to what Assad and or Russian would be bombing on a highway...

FSA News @FSAPlatform
Statistics of control in #Manshiyah neighbourhood, as #FSA forces make advances in this strategic area of Daraa city

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 09:07 AM

Daraa: Al-Bunian Al-Marsous op. room started attack on Muawiyah checkpoint.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=32.614219&lon=36.091075&z=17&m#…

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 09:08 AM

Syria No control for #Assad-forces on Khirbat Adnan north west of #Aleppo

W. #Aleppo: Free Idlib Army shelling Zahraa Artillery Base with 122 mm cannon.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.213809&lon=37.087355&z=14&m#…

N. #Latakia: First Coastal Division destroyed with a #TOW a Regime position with 14.5 mm gun.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 09:12 AM

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 09:14 AM

#Hama Battle: 6 #Russia|n soldiers pictured on #Helfaya frontline, confirming increased Russian involvement there. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.239591&lon=36.595116&z=13&m#…

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 09:15 AM

E. #Damascus: Rebels heading to frontline with 2 RPG-29 rockets. Fierce shelling & clashes raging in #Qabun as pro-Regime try to advance.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 09:31 AM

Treaty law banning the use of incendiary weapons against civilians

1980 Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Incendiary Weapons (Protocol III to the CCW) prohibits the aerial delivery, in relation to the conduct of hostilities during armed conflict, of incendiary weapons within a concentration of civilians.

Consonant with general international humanitarian law (IHL) rules governing the conduct of hostilities, the Protocol also prohibits attacks on ‘any military objective located within a concentration of civilians by means of incendiary weapons other than air-delivered incendiary weapons, except when such military objective is clearly separated from the concentration of civilians and all feasible precautions are taken with a view to limiting the incendiary effects to the military objective and to avoiding, and in any event to minimizing, incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians and damage to civilian objects’. Attacks on civilians or civilian objects with incendiary weapons are prohibited under the Protocol, as are attacks on forests or other kinds of plant cover by incendiary weapons except when such natural elements are used for military purposes or are themselves military objectives. (Article 2(4))
For the purposes of the Protocol incendiary weapons are defined as
any weapon or munition which is primarily designed to set fire to objects or to cause burn injury to persons through the action of flame, heat, or combination thereof, produced by a chemical reaction of a substance delivered on the target.
The definition’s scope is limited by the requirement that the weapon or munition must be ‘primarily designed’ to act through flame and/or heat, but it is broad in that it includes weapons from flame throwers, shells, rockets, and grenades, to mines, bombs and ‘other containers of incendiary substances’.
Excluded from the definition and, hence, from the scope of the Protocol are munitions which have ‘incidental incendiary effects’ (such as illuminants, obscurants or tracers), and combined effects munitions ‘in which the incendiary effect is not specifically designed to cause burn injury to persons’.
Because munitions containing incendiary substances can be used for incendiary and for other purposes (for example to create smoke), the Protocol’s definition of an incendiary weapon has in recent years been subject to debate. In this regard, the Final Declaration adopted by the Fourth Review Conference of the CCW (2011) noted concerns raised by some High Contracting Parties ‘about the offensive use of white phosphorous against civilians’ and further ‘that there was no agreement on various aspects of this matter.’
Incendiary weapons that take the form of cluster munitions falling within the scope of the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions#(CCM) are prohibited under that Convention. Excluded from the definition of a cluster munitions are munitions or submunitions designed to dispense flares, smoke, pyrotechnics or chaff.
Certain incendiary substances used in incendiary weapons, like white phosphorous, also pose harm to humans through their toxicity. Such ‘toxic chemicals’, as well as ‘munitions and devices’ containing toxic incendiary substances can be ‘chemical weapons’ prohibited under the 1992 Chemical Weapons Convention#(CWC).
In view of the toxic and asphyxiating effects of many incendiaries, the 1925 Geneva Gas Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and Bacteriological Methods of Warfare also requires consideration.
Massive use of incendiary weapons can also have long-term ecological consequences, which can be severe and are largely unpredictable. The massive use by the U.S. of incendiary weapons in Vietnam was one of the catalyst for the promulgation of the 1976 United Nations Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques (ENMOD).

Incendiary weapons may also fall within the definition of an ‘incendiary weapon or device’ under the 1997 International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings. Note, however, that the Convention does not cover the activities of armed forces during an armed conflict which are governed by IHL. (Article 19)

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 09:46 AM

9 airstrikes conducted on #Daraa city in southern #Syria since morning

Syria Rebels took new barriers in south western neigborhoods of #Daraa city this morning

CrowBat

04-14-2017, 01:51 PM

CrowBat...anything on your end on this????

Russia delivering to #SyAF the 2nd batch of upgraded Su-24M2s (8 bombers) after first 2 received last Summer.

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/syria-gains-more-upgraded-su-24m2-bombers.html#…
So far, I've seen no reason to trust any such rumours. Deliveries of Su-24s were announced sometimes in May 2016, then again early this year. Nothing at all turned up: the 'Ba'ath Squadron 819' (as this unit is cited in official SyAAF correspondence) is meanwhile down to flying 6-8 sorties a day (if at all; on 12 April, they didn't fly even 1).

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 02:29 PM

Hama Battle: pro-Regime militia Qalamoun Shield near Taybet Al-Imam frontline yesterday.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.251647&lon=36.730728&z=13&m#

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 02:32 PM

Fox News host says dropping 'mother of all bombs' on ISIS is 'what freedom looks like'
http://read.bi/2phGtwQ

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 02:39 PM

Right now am not so sure Syria and Ukraine are the hot spots......

Northkorea: #Japan making plans to evavuate 60,000 citizens from #SouthKorea and to deal with a refugee crisis.

Russia reportedly moved military vehicles (Air Def) toward Vladivostok not far from the border w/ North Korea
https://already-happened.com/2017/04/14/russia-reportedly-moved-military-vehicles-air-def-toward-vladivostok-not-far-from-the-border-with-north-korea-this-night/#

Analysts identify #SyriaHoax as Russian-fueled propaganda designed to undermine credibility of U.S. government.
http://abcn.ws/2of25YQ

Russia, Iran, and Syria warn of 'grave consequences' for further US strikes
http://read.bi/2peiEst

Russian TOS-1A firing thermobaric rockets east of Palmyra
http://wikimapia.org/#lat=34.597686&lon=38.409566&z=17&m=b&v=1#

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 02:45 PM

Iraqi mullah Muqtada al-Sadr is banking on the Soleimani Doctrine coming to an end. Why he may be right:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/04/14/firebrand-cleric-turns-on-u-s-enemies.html?via=desktop&source=twitter#

Less #AssadPutin air strikes in northern #Syria today as the axis doesn't want to threaten the population exchange deal with rebels.

But pro-regime activists make no secret out of their plan to start the "final offensive" fr. #Aleppo after #Fuah & #Kefraya are emptied.

East of #Damascus, #Assad's jets (Su-22 here) dropped bombs on towns and villages.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EBo4FYf-2s#…

Also today, dozens of #AssadPutin air strikes hit #Daraa city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iubbGqPox5A#…

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 02:48 PM

McMaster wants 10,000-50,000 U.S. boots on ground in #Syria - a “surge” of sorts.

Others aren’t so sure.

= Debate

https://bv.ms/2orVA72

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 03:04 PM

Daraa: Reports that rebels have destroyed an #Assad vehicle in #Sajnah District of #Daraa City.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.616099&lon=36.091268&z=16&m=b#

Major equipment win if confirmed....
Hama: Rebels report that they seized T-90 & T-72 tanks south of #Halfaya from the pro-#Assad forces.

Hama: Rebels have recaptured some positions south of #Halfaya from the pro-#Assad forces after heavy clashes today.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.227602&lon=36.603785&z=14&m=b#

Hama Battle: Rebels took back "Sensehr" position between #Helfaya & #Khattab after withdrawal this morning.

Damascus: Pro-#Assad forces were captured after rebels launched a counter-offensive in #Barzeh in Eastern #Damascus today.

ISIS has recaptured several villages west of #Jirah Airbase, including #Zakiyah, from the #Assad regime. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.107785&lon=37.848759&z=13&m=b#

Daraa: Rebels have captured the Oqbah Bin Nafe Mosque in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa City.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.614341&lon=36.088790&z=18&m=b#

Protest against agreement in Dana near turkey border
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d90uD_pRnRA#…

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 03:14 PM

Hama Battle: #FSA Jaish Al-Izza seized a T-62, a T-62M and a technical with MG on #Helfaya front after failed pro-Regime assault.
wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.218557&lon=36.622925&z=13&m=b#

Raqqa: Video shows #ISIS attacking #YPG positions in Northern #Raqqa and crossing the irrigation ditches.

Lavrov: Evidence Growing #Syria Chemical Attack Was Staged
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-14/russia-says-evidence-growing-syria-chemical-attack-was-staged#

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 03:30 PM

Syria Rebels seized 2 T-72 Tanks, 4 BMPs & a Caterpillar in #Damascus near Harasta

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 04:37 PM

Syria norther #Hama
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze4R2FdS8g4&feature=youtu.be#

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 05:28 PM

The #Kremlin regime delivered fresh T-62M to #Assad's militias.
They los them in the 1st battle w/ rebels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfT-mf7oPmQ&feature=youtu.be#…

For those not knowing what H2200 means.
It stands for heavyweight cargo on @RuRailways trains.

Previously seen in Rostov Russia and inside eastern Ukraine...

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 05:34 PM

Despite close to a thousand #AssadPutin air strikes on them over the past two weeks, rebels keep advancing in #Daraa's #Manshiyah.

Hama Battle: another #Fagot strike by Jaish Al-Izza, this time destroying a bulldozer on #Khattab front.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 05:39 PM

Interesting tweet from the past.....

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 05:44 PM

But @mod_russia said it was a Syrian bombing of a "terrorist" CW warehouse, how was it orchestrated?
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704051052301312-syria-strikes-chemical-weapons-warehouse/#

Syria Strikes Warehouse Storing Chemical Weapons Being Delivered to Iraq

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said that Syrian aircraft have conducted an airstrike near the town of Khan Shaykhun in Syria’s Idlib province on the warehouse of terrorists’ ammunition and the mass of military equipment, where chemical weapons' ammunition had also been stored and delivered to Iraq.

OUTLAW 09

04-14-2017, 06:18 PM

Daraa: Rebels have captured in #Manshiyah today:
- 90 buildings
- 4 checkpoints & barriers

Rebels control 85% of #Manshiyah District.

davidbfpo

04-14-2017, 08:44 PM

I think Azor asked about civilian casualties in Syria and this appeared on Twitter:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9X0_p0XkAAxEKx.jpg

In 2017 only:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9Xt3WbW0AArXzQ.jpg

Azor

04-14-2017, 11:23 PM

Thanks, David.

I think Azor asked about civilian casualties in Syria and this appeared on Twitter...

Not inaccurate, although:

1. The SOHR puts Russian-inflicted civilian fatalities at 4,674 (http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=58111).

2. Airwars.org puts Coalition-inflicted civilian casualties (Syria only) at 1,336 to 2,301 (https://airwars.org/civilian-casualty-claims/)

I think that the attribution to pro-Assad forces is somewhat inflated. I have a spreadsheet of estimates elsewhere that I will post...

Azor

04-14-2017, 11:34 PM

This is the Syria in 2017 thread, it is not appropriate to engage in a wider political awareness exchange - notably about President Trump. A number of recent posts have been deleted and if I have time others will be too.

The ToR for the Forum are quite clear this is not a politics at home arena. We cannot avoid politics, but we can avoid what appears to be partisan politics. It may interest some, especially as the news content may not be seen by readers via their usual sources. It may also turn off readers too, who can find that news and debate elsewhere.

Earlier this year the Forum tried to have a debate with a thread elsewhere, that experiment failed and the thread was closed. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=24661&page=31

Thank you, David. I, for one, am not going to argue that the current President is my ideal. Having said that, it does read as though any action or inaction of his is being completely politicized. It is enough that laypeople with no understanding of conflict or history are now budding Kremlinogists and Bomb Damage Assessors.

There is quite enough partisan politics on Twitter, Disqus and Facebook plugin. I'd sooner discuss the course of the war in question.

Azor

04-15-2017, 12:24 AM

…the rebels for the last several years have stated...push out Assad and then we can focus and will focus on IS as they are not Syrians...

Then who will succeed him as leader of the Alawi/Christian/Druze faction?

…IF and I use the term IF..if in fact Obama had been willing to completely ground the Syrian AF and their helicopters there would have been no

1. sarin gas attacks
2. no chlorine barrel bombs
3. no barrel bombs
4. limited very limited refugee flows towards Europe
5. would have greatly limited starvation...ethnic cleansings
6. potentially facilitated the removal of Assad

RE:

Not necessarily. Assad could have used rocket artillery
See above

Russia and Iran could have intervened with their airpower in 2013 to replace the SyAAF

Not necessarily. What of rockets and shells?

How so? Most of that is done on the ground

Or the direct intervention of Iran and Russia on Assad’s behalf

The key even today is in fact the removal of Assad as the majority of his society the Sunni's demand it…BUT it clashes with the Iranian green crescent objectives...

His “society” now consists of Alawi, Christian and Druze Arabs, living primarily in the governorates of Latakia, Tartus, As-Suwayda and parts of Homs, Hama, Daraa, Rif Dimashq, Damascus and others.

There is no way that the minorities, be they Kurds, Alawis, Christians or Druze, are going to peacefully accept majority rule by the Sunni Arabs and face a possible “tyranny of the majority”. The best that the Sunni Arabs can hope for are population transfers for mixed areas and border demarcations of the variety carried out in East-Central Europe in the aftermath of World War II.

Simply stated no Iranian troops and no Russian troops and AF...should remain in Syria otherwise I hate to say this we will see an actual partition of Syria into an Assad zone...a Sunni/Turkish zone and a Kurdish zone setting up conflict in Syria for the next two decades at a minimum...

Partitioning the country and imposing ceasefires is the solution. While the Russian and Iranian forces could retreat to Assad’s enclave in the west, any Iranian-led mercenaries attempting to commit ethnic or sectarian cleansing of mixed areas with Sunni Arabs should be considered as FTOs and targeted in the same manner as Daesh and Khorasan.

Face it, Syria is a failed and fractured state. You had might as well pine for Yugoslavia to be pieced back together.

BTW check the posted map which clearly now depicts this green crescent that I have been writing about here since say about the late 2004 timeframe and now in 2017 we are seeing in an accurate map...the "green crescent"...

Yes, Teheran does have imperial ambitions. Yet it is wasting resources to preserve by force what it had already obtained by “soft power” by 2011. Teheran is unconcerned that Lebanon is not a unitary Shia-led state, and it should have moved toward allowing for similar federalism in Iraq and Syria, rather than allowing and/or spurring its allies there to provoke civil wars.

,..I am after participating in three wars in my lifetime not a warmonger by any means…I believe that diplomacy has it's place but when it fails one must be able and willing to use force to resolve issues...

Yet what of the ongoing mass murder and development of WMDs in North Korea? What of the ongoing mass murder and war crimes in Sudan, South Sudan and other parts of Africa? What of ethnic and sectarian cleansing in Myanmar?

Your interest in applying force is confined to a particular region, when the U.S. has global interests. Moreover, the “humanitarian” interventions in Yugoslavia and Libya did far more to damage U.S. relations with its rivals and adversaries than the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq ever did. Merely because YouTube isn’t abounding with footage, doesn’t mean that the paramilitaries and indeed militaries of Africa, have stopped raping, murdering, torturing, maiming and pillaging.

...Notice the crescent shape of the map...then expand that crescent into AFG and on to Pakistan....THEN you will notice that it accurately follows the old Silk Trading Road…

Pakistan (and formerly Iraq) is the reason why Iran has a nuclear weapons program, in addition to state security. Israel is a diversion, not unlike how Russia violates the INF Treaty in response to China not NATO.

Iran has to be very careful with Pakistan, lest the ISI fire up Iran’s Balochis and Sunnis in reply. Nor can the Iranian military defeat Pakistan’s. Even with Indian support, Pakistan is backstopped with nuclear weapons, albeit the U.S. does have a costly and uncertain contingency plan for securing them.

... But bombs can never substitute for a strategic foreign policy in a set strategy. Bombing simply covers up that fact as it is again simply a tactical move on the FP battlefield...kind of like lashing out with no thought behind it to just prove how strong you are...AND that you can go it alone...

It worked for Clinton, who was able to successfully kick a number of cans down the road, from non-proliferation to counter-terrorism. It also worked for Obama, who far from engaging with the Muslim world, pursued a strategy of containment and attrition via airpower.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 04:40 AM

Thank you, David. I, for one, am not going to argue that the current President is my ideal. Having said that, it does read as though any action or inaction of his is being completely politicized. It is enough that laypeople with no understanding of conflict or history are now budding Kremlinogists and Bomb Damage Assessors.

There is quite enough partisan politics on Twitter, Disqus and Facebook plugin. I'd sooner discuss the course of the war in question.

So you basically deny that the movie concept of "Wag the Dog" does not in fact find itself often in the political realm of say Syria...NK or even Ukraine....

To deny that often politicians especially US politicians often look over their shoulders at their poll numbers and or "how it is playing with their voters" before they make a move is simple political reality...

So the TLAM air strike by Trump achieved actually what inside Syria? or did it impress the Russians?...certainly did not impress Assad and did it impress NK?...they are still moving forward....

Did is achieve a cessation of the killing of civilians via "other means" namely incendiary cluster munitions are as equally forbidden as gas is and has been since 1929 declared a "gas"....

NO in fact after the TLAM strike use of incendiary cluster munitions has increased 10 FOLD......

I find it interesting that the intertwining of internal US politics inside Syria is not recognized...because only then can a true solution be found....if it is recognized...

Which seems here to be not recognized...

BTW...did a single MOAB cause the IS in AFG to stop fighting in AFG...or did it achieve a major battlefield "victory".....36 killed if that number is even correct does not tip the battlefield against IS or even the Taliban....

HECK more were killed in the Diyala River Basin in one days worth of fighting in 2006 with 1st Cav units....BUT did that main the headlines?

OR did the MOAB really impress Iran and Russia and force them to stop supplying both weapons and advisors to the Taliban...NO it did not....

BUT did it make Trump look like this major "international player willing to use force"...YES...did it play well with his alt right...NO...did it play well with is voters...YES....

So again does the political theory of "Wag the Dog" actually exist???

With a President under such pressure concerning his alleged ties to Russian black money ties nicely again back into the political theory of "Wag the Dog"....

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 05:05 AM

Face it, Syria is a failed and fractured state. You had might as well pine for Yugoslavia to be pieced back together.

Syria is actually not a truly failed state...if the fighting can be stopped...take a serious look at what the FSA negotiators have proposed...really take a serious look at their proposals....

Couple it with the ground reality....when FSA had the opportunity to retaliate IE as had the Shia...THEY DID NOT...take the single water source for all of Damascus...they protected it and never did shut it off....take the two Shia enclaves which were removed in ethnic cleansing exchanges...they never fired rockets into the civilian population as did Ass ad and Iran....take the ongoing fighting in Hama that now Assad forces took over two major Christian towns to launch attacks of the FSA and FSA refrained to fighting anywhere near them and reached out to them to ensure they knew they would not be attacked....

THEN take Aleppo...they never did in all the fighting actually attack western Aleppo which was literally next door...why civilians ..FSA and it's related units have a long history of not attacking civilians wherever possible.

AND Assad....civilians to not matter especially if they are Sunni's....

Go back to the very start of the rebellion....and seriously recheck every move Assad as made against civilians...THEN tell me if Assad ad his clan is removed things cannot go forward towards a long term peaceful resolution..

BTW....why is there interest the Iranians for Assad...Assad is from a Shia offshoot which many do not seem to fully understand just as a number of the Shia enclaves are Shia 12ers or 5ers...not really formally recognized even by Iran but heck all Shia even the offshoots are still Shia in Iranian eyes...

So partition would doom the entire ME...just as it has long term in Yugoslavia....but in reality it was the iron hand of Tito that kept it together....

You really do need to fully understand far more than you do about ground reality in both Syria and Iraq...

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 05:41 AM

BTW...all these media reports about the "messaging behind the use of TLAMs and MOABs"...are to me nothing but "fake news" as their use did not influence......or change any political opinions nor impress anyone .....those that the US are concerned deeply with IE Syria....Russia....Iran and NK could not care in the least...they drive on their own agendas and have their own military capacities that they are comfortable with and a cruise missile or a 22,000 lb single bomb that takes an entire C130 to deliver and which would never survive an ADA2 environment...how is that "impressing"....

Azor

04-15-2017, 07:03 AM

So you basically deny that the movie concept of "Wag the Dog" does not in fact find itself often in the political realm of say Syria...NK or even Ukraine...

To deny that often politicians especially US politicians often look over their shoulders at their poll numbers and or "how it is playing with their voters" before they make a move is simple political reality...

Who are you referring to? All elected leaders? American ones?

You’ll kindly recall that the film was made in honor of former President Clinton, who found swashbuckling in Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Yugoslavia more interesting than dealing with his scandals or indeed Congress.

I’ll cut you off at the pass here:

Firstly, Assad’s recent use of Sarin in Idlib was not fabricated. Neither was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, ethnic cleansing in Bosnia or 9/11.

Secondly, there are cases where the rationale for intervention was incredibly weak, and in which misinformation and even outright disinformation was involved, such as the non-existent genocides in Kosovo and Libya and Iraqi nuclear weapons.

So the TLAM air strike by Trump achieved actually what inside Syria? or did it impress the Russians?...certainly did not impress Assad and did it impress NK?...they are still moving forward....

Did is achieve a cessation of the killing of civilians via "other means" namely incendiary cluster munitions are as equally forbidden as gas is and has been since 1929 declared a "gas"....

NO in fact after the TLAM strike use of incendiary cluster munitions has increased 10 FOLD...

The airstrike on Shayrat punished Assad for using Sarin, without defeating him and materially altering the course of the war. Additionally, it degraded his air force by some 20% and signaled that the U.S. would use force in response to Assad’s use of Sarin and possibly other chemical weapons, later clarified to include chlorine gas and other “industrial” agents.

As for “impressing” state leaders, I have not seen Assad use Sarin or chlorine since and Putin has backed away from defending Syrian airspace.

I have not read or heard of any U.S. “redline” on the use of incendiary or cluster munitions. Such a stance would invariably conflict with the American doctrine on these weapons as well as their use by allies such as Israel.

In any event, the vast majority of Syrian civilians are dying from shells, bullets and unguided conventional bombs.

If I were you, I would be thankful that the current Administration has taken some action, however small, to deter and prevent Assad from butchering civilians as he has been since 2011. It has been three and a-half years since you were severely disappointed by witnessing Assad use Sarin with near impunity, invite Russia in, and then resort to chlorine gas. Why? In order for Iran, the invader keeping Syria aflame, to feel satiated enough to possibly meet its commitments under the NPT. Perhaps you should Tweet your frustrations to the person busy setting up his charity-cum-slush fund.

I find it interesting that the intertwining of internal US politics inside Syria is not recognized...because only then can a true solution be found...if it is recognized...Which seems here to be not recognized...

Do you hear that? It’s the sound of the world’s smallest violin.

Small wars of choice always revolve around domestic politics. Aside from a handful of defensive campaigns against the Danes, Normans, Spanish, French and Axis, all of England’s and Great Britain’s wars were wars of choice fought on the territory of others, in the air or on the high seas. Even British participation in the Great War was arguably as much a matter of choice as national defense. The records of the dynamics between monarch and aristocracy, monarch and parliament and parliament and public with regard to war, span centuries.

Complaining about what you cannot control is only going to give you undue stress. I read all-cap condemnations of the NSC for 3 years. Did those daily reminders make a difference?

BTW...did a single MOAB cause the IS in AFG to stop fighting in AFG...or did it achieve a major battlefield "victory"...36 killed if that number is even correct does not tip the battlefield against IS or even the Taliban...

I was waiting for you to bring the #MOAB up, although I can’t recall it being used in Syria…

Well, the enemy death toll is at 82 or almost 10% of Daesh’s fighting strength in Afghanistan. Not only were Daesh’s tunnel complexes cleared and destroyed, no Coalition casualties were incurred due to booby-traps; as a veteran of the Vietnam War, I thought you might appreciate that.

You have discussed Operation Arc Light, but I have read that the average number of NLF/NVA killed per B-52 was ~3. Those dumb bombs are better at killing and maiming civilians today, than they ever were at closing the Ho Chi Minh Trail.

HECK more were killed in the Diyala River Basin in one days worth of fighting in 2006 with 1st Cav units...BUT did that main the headlines?

Well, for the entire Diyala campaign, the kill/capture ratio was under 4:1 in favor of the Coalition. Not exactly bloodless. More akin to the Wehrmacht experience on the OstFront...

Now can we get back to Syria?

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 07:05 AM

Azor...really go back and analyze the US Iranian deal and you will agee with my running critique of Obama in Syria....he fully and completely allowed with his approval the Iranian regional hegemony over Iraq and Syria ....this view was also restated clearly and concisely in his 20K word interview and further reinforced by the Ben Rhodes interview...all available to read....

So in some ways the Iranian involvement is a given from their perspective as it is their view also for Iraq....guaranteed by the Iran deal..

By entering Syria in large Shia militia numbers all they are doing is fulfilling what they assume to be their "natural rights" allowed them by Obama and company.

With Trump we have absolutely no strategy to speak of on either IS...Iran and or Russia...well maybe not Russia as Trump has never said a single word of disapproval of anything Putin does....and needs their money for his business empire...

Trump's current "Wag the Dog" moments reminds me of the lone pirate walking in a cave full of 100s of lbs of loose gunpowder carrying a flaming torch....with signs all around stating..."no open flames"....

This President is the least informed about world politics...the least educated in actual politics and actually the least overall educated of many of the former Presidents and on top of it an individual who in the business world had no morals in massively over leveraging his Ponzi scheme which needs a constant capital flow to survive....

So carrying an open flame into a cave full of gun powder is OK for him....he does not care after the second and third order of effects he creates...

I do.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 07:14 AM

THIS is example what I mean....while the entire MSM talks about the TLAM and MOAB strikes and how suddenly Trump has changed...WHICH if one carefully reads his and his merry band of brothers comments...he has not changed a single previous statement....

Things are developing in Europe that the MSM is not seeing because of all the Trump "chatter" about his strikes....

North Korea tensions are grabbing all the attention. Something really not-funny going on in Europe.

Hint: Large parts of Russian armed forces are on alert due "winter training period checks"

Russia has alerted 3 motorized brigades in the far east. Units are moving out of garrisons and relocating.

Actually the entire Russian military is on a full war time snap alert...the ENTIRE Russian military and it is not "winter"...it is "spring" so this Russian MoD statement alone is false....

They had just completed those checks a full month ago so why the sudden war time snap re-alert????

If you redeploy aircraft during Easter you don´t do it just for fun. F-35A to Europe this weekend
https://theaviationist.com/2017/04/14/the-u-s-air-force-is-deploying-the-f-35a-lightning-ii-aircraft-to-europe-this-weekend/#…

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 07:33 AM

FrolovLeaks: Goebbels of the Patriarch, Recruitment of Ukrainian Generals and Baptism by Fire in Syria. Episode IV
https://informnapalm.org/en/frolovleaks-goebbels-patriarch-recruitment-ukrainian-generals-baptism-fire-syria-episode-iv/#

Azor

04-15-2017, 07:37 AM

I'm well aware of your disdain for Obama's "secret protocol" with Khamenei that is reminiscent of Stalin and Churchill, and Stalin and Hitler, for that matter. There, some reductio ad Hitlerum for you...

You forget that the accusations of Trump being a Russian agent coincided with the transfer of Neo-Conservative support to Clinton in 2016, effectively concentrating all hawks and interventionists under one tent.

Subsequently, we saw the serving and past CIA Directors openly declare for Clinton, as well as many former NSC members. The more political former members of the defense, intelligence and foreign policy establishments were very vocal about their support for Clinton.

Had Clinton been elected, one could argue that this support was indicative of a consensus that could develop a grand strategy, carried out on a whole-of-government basis.

Yet her defeat was worrisome. How could these former insiders and leaders of these institutions claim that their institutions were impartial, let alone prepared to serve under Trump? Were their political opinions not representative to a significant degree of those of these bureaucracies?

Much of this establishment is now breathing a sigh of relief, with the notable exceptions of the CIA and State Dept. This relief has naturally been reflected in the media coverage.

Personally, it seems as though the election of Trump has dealt a blow to the gradual movement toward technocracy and the blending of political and military leadership.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 07:57 AM

Azor

04-15-2017, 08:08 AM

Azor...appears Assad still has tons of CWs left....and the Russians virtually guaranteed it was all gone both to the US and to the UNSC.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/14/bashar-al-assad-still-has-hundreds-tonnes-chemical-weapons-former/#

SO silence out of the Trump WH and his merry band of brothers this morning on this UK report which seems to be confirmed if one if one rereads a number of recent comments by the UN OPCW......

So "Wag the Dog" does not exist???

Otherwise we would be seeing far more TLAM strikes as the US has the same data as does OPCW.....AND trump issued his "red line on CWs did he not"....

Simple solution to hinder the use of CWs..hinder the delivery mechanism...aircraft and helicopters....he does not have the CW shells for artillery...

Firstly, al-Sakat defected in 2013 and is no longer an insider. He not only has an interest in gaining attention for himself, but in also encouraging Western military intervention in Syria.

Secondly, if the U.S. is aware of Assad's deceit, than it was from 2013-2016, no? Again, Obama bears responsibility for making an agreement in bad faith and lying to the American people, if what you say is true. Care you revise your logic?

Thirdly, if Assad has retained or rebuilt his stockpiles to pre-Civil War levels, then there is a major quandary: how to disarm Assad without exposing civilians to the chemical agents or allowing the weapons to fall into the wrong hands? It was estimated that a major U.S. campaign and some 75,000 ground troops were needed to secure and destroy Assad's chemical weapons in 2013. Therefore, it would be preferable to convince Assad not to use them rather than prize them from his grasp.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 08:09 AM

Proof of the existence of the "Wag the Dog" political theory.....meaning use something BIG to distract from the ground reality facing you.....

Entire MSM grabs the headline with TLAMs and MOAB but the ground reality that these strikes attempts to distract from....

Meals on Wheels budget: $7.5m CUT by Trump budget
NEA budget: $147m CUT by Trump budget
Cost to repair pipes in Flint: $200m CUT by Trump budget

Cost of MOAB bomb: $314m

AND that is not even in the area of FP....

AND "Wag the Dog" helps deflect the hypocrisy in this....as well...

Trump won’t post WH visitor logs, citing “security risks,” & says move will save taxpayers $70K by 2020.
One single golfing Mar-a-Lago trip costs $2M+.

Azor

04-15-2017, 08:24 AM

Cost of MOAB bomb: $314m...

Actually that was for the first 20 units of the MOP, which is heavier and more sophisticated, and includes ongoing R&D costs as well.

The MOAB is intended to replace the BLU-82 Daisycutter...

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 08:24 AM

"Wag the Dog" has now gotten out of control......

You know things have gotten upside down when China is urging calm and sounds like the most reasonable voice in the room.

Two uses of air strikes against countries that cannot defend themselves and now one who can fight back, has nuclear weapons and can flatten Seoul within hours and Trump is off golfing today?

From today's NK military parade....WHILE Trump is off golfing....

Generally speaking, this is not what you want to see North Korea military experts tweet while watching North Korea military parades.

Melissa Hanham‏#
@mhanham
OOOOOOH FUUUUUUUC..........

Azor

04-15-2017, 08:27 AM

You know things have gotten upside down when China is urging calm and sounds like the most reasonable voice in the room.

Quoting George Takei now? I forgot his strategic acumen... ;)

Relevance to the Syrian Civil War or Syria?

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 08:46 AM

Actually that was for the first 20 units of the MOP, which is heavier and more sophisticated, and includes ongoing R&D costs as well.

The MOAB is intended to replace the BLU-82 Daisycutter...

BUT as long as it takes a single C130 to deliver it and that C130 is not a noted breaker of a solid ADA2 environment ...what is it good for outside of "show and bluster" and "Wag the Dog"......

Even those that it is suppose to "impress" know it's main weaknesses.....last time I checked IS did not have a sophisticated ADA2 environment over AFG....

At least the Daisycutter was used to open up Landing Zones for troops...but again also never used in a heavy ADA2 environment....

In fact the largest Russian thermobaric weapon is far more effective...against cave environments than is the MOAB....

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 11:15 AM

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 11:18 AM

Do the pro Assad/Postol/Putin crowd not find it suspicious that 3 pieces of forensic evidence found in #KhanSheikhoun crater link 2 Rus CW ?

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 11:30 AM

BREAKING: SDF fighters enter the first neighbourhood of Tabqa city during phase 4 of Raqqa operation

The morning in #Daraa city.
#Assad's Mil Mi-24 drop bombs on the city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5fam6m3F-w#…

Rebels celebrate capture of "modern" tank.
What it proves: The #Kremlin is struggling to replace TOWed equipment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQgzDbeJEgg#…

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 11:31 AM

Syria'n regime bombing #Damascus Harasta suburb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJBrSIUAHSQ#

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 11:42 AM

Daraa: clashes raging near Al-Ershadiyah barrier, major government position N. of Manshiyah
pic.twitter.com/1Unwz4UNhL

Early Morning Hours Fierce SyAAF/RuAF air strikes targeting Halfaya. At least 9 air raids so far

Al-Bonyan al-Marsous Op. room released photos of the inside of Aqaba Bin Nafi Mosque

#Daraa: Fighting has reached the southern outskirts of #Sajnah District. Rebels advancing against the #Assad regime.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.615480&lon=36.092046&z=18&m=b#

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 12:28 PM

Damascus: Rebels shelling pro-#Assad forces at #Irbeen frontline in Eastern #Damascus with an Omar cannon today.

Hama: #FSA Jaysh al-Izzah has destroyed an #Assad tank with #TOW near #Majdal village in northwestern #Hama today.

Daraa: Khalid ibn al-Walid (#ISIS) claims that they have killed 17 Southern Front fighters and wounded 30 more in Western #Daraa Province.

Big Explosion hits one of CS lattakia military compounds

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 12:32 PM

Daraa: New map shows huge rebel gains in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa City.
Rebels control 90% of #Manshiyah now.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 12:41 PM

Daraa: Khalid ibn al-Walid (#ISIS) claims that they have killed 17 Southern Front fighters and wounded 30 more in Western #Daraa Province.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS ATGM destroying #Assad tank in #DeirEzzor today.

Hama: Rebels have killed #Assad Colonel Yasser Ali Al Ali in northwestern #Hama.

N. #Latakia: reports a car bomb struck a Regime checkpoint in #Salma region, ex-Rebel stronghold.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.687697&lon=36.134377&z=12&m#…

Hama Battle: Jaish Al-Nasr shelling pro-Regime forces with 122 mm cannon.

Hama Battle: Jaish Al-Izza destroyed with a #TOW a tank on #Majdal front. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.204111&lon=36.596489&z=13&m#…

W. #Aleppo: heavy clashes and artillery shelling as pro-Regime forces launched night assault on Tell Shuwehneh. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.224265&lon=37.064180&z=14&m#…

E. #Damascus: two fighters from pro-Regime Arab Nationalist Guard killed yesterday by Rebels on #Qabun front.

Daraa: clashes raging near Al-Ershadiyah barrier, major Regime position N. of Manshiyah, amidst #RuAF & #SyAF raids http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=32.616162&lon=36.091805&z=17&m#…

ProAssad commenter...
Ivan Sidorenko‏#@IvanSidorenko1 12h
#Syria #Aleppo #NorthernAleppo Huge Military Buildup of #SAA / 5th Corps /Fifth Corps & Nubl & Zahraa Forces & #Russia #Russian & #Hezbollah

Regime armor losses (4which we have visual evidence) in N. Hama during March/April fighting so far
H/T @SCW_Nuggie for keeping track of this

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 12:59 PM

Syria'n regime bombing #Damascus Harasta suburb
https://youtu.be/RJBrSIUAHSQ

CrowBat

04-15-2017, 01:01 PM

Firstly, al-Sakat defected in 2013 and is no longer an insider.From my own, first hand experience: thinking this way is a massive mistake. Repeat: massive mistake.

I doubt you can imagine,

a) what the terminus 'frienship' means in Syria, especially if maintained over the years and no matter what happens, and then

b) what a proportion of 'Assadists' keep various sorts of 'backdoors' for themselves open in the case Assad falls - and thus continue providing info to contacts they shouldn't ever have (or at least aren't supposed to have).

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:02 PM

Fascinating - #Iran’s complex but important 25yr relationship with Al-Qaeda = logistical & operational cooperation:

https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/marriage-of-convenience-the-evolution-of-iran-and-al-qaidas-tactical-cooperation#…

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:05 PM

AND Trump does not have a "Wag the Dog" syndrome?????

From NYTs today.....
Trump delights in watching the U.S. military display its strength

And if it boosts his poll numbers and distracts from his Russian connections problem all the better....

AND the side effects of the Trump proposed "Muslim Ban".....

Even Canadians are skipping trips to America after the Trump travel ban...estimated US tourism loses due to travelers not wanting to come due to the US Ban.....

7.4B USDs....and climbing....

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:13 PM

From my own, first hand experience: thinking this way is a massive mistake. Repeat: massive mistake.

I doubt you can imagine,

a) what the terminus 'frienship' means in Syria, especially if maintained over the years and no matter what happens, and then

b) what a proportion of 'Assadists' keep various sorts of 'backdoors' for themselves open in the case Assad falls - and thus continue providing info to contacts they shouldn't ever have (or at least aren't supposed to have).

Goes to the heart of removing Assad....and those that did in commit crimes against humanity and war crimes....slowly ever slowing then Syria will heal itself...

The removal and trials of those that did commit war crimes and crimes against humanity under the IC in Hague would go along way in assisting the rebuilding...

We are seeing here in Europe Germany...Sweden and other countries actually charge those found to have been war criminals and actually sentence them...and more Syrian/Iraqi refugees are coming forward with even more info....giving at least those refugees a sense that the rule of law works....

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:31 PM

We deny Su-24 bomber deliveries to #Syria.
http://tass.com/defense/941518

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:50 PM

Taken from the SWJ article
Redrawing the Map: The Shifting Human Terrain of Syria
by Gabriel White

An interesting small detail that is highly important in understanding this latest large scale ethnic cleansing.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/14/besieged-syria-towns-evacu...

Qatari royal family members used as leverage in Syrian population swap
Fates of 26 members of hunting party, held hostage for more than a year in Iraq, used to negotiate deal to move residents from Shia and Sunni towns.
The deal was finalised in recent days after nearly two years of negotiations between one of Syria’s main opposition groups, Ahrar al-Sham, and Iran. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Qatar have also been central – both taking a stake five months ago when members of Doha’s ruling family were offered up as a component of the swap.
The agreement, and the regional choreography surrounding it, marks one of the most sensitive episodes of the Syrian war. Iran and Hezbollah have been determined not to cast the moves as a demographic swap, while Ahrar al-Sham and members of the Syrian political opposition insist that what has been proposed cannot be characterised otherwise.
As the Guardian reported in January, Iran had earlier tied the future of both Sunni towns to the fate of Fua and Kefraya. While the plan at its essence involves relocating four local populations, the intimate involvement of regional powers underscores how deeply embedded the conflict has become in a broader proxy war for power and influence.
The involvement of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has meanwhile been negligible, with Iran and Qatar seeking the release of 1,500 prisoners from Syrian jails, but not including regime officials in discussions.
Two Qataris, both members of a falcon hunting party that had crossed from Saudi Arabia to Iraq where they were captured in December 2015, were released earlier in the week as the deal neared implementation. Sources close to the negotiations have told the Guardian that urgent efforts to secure the fate of the remaining men led to the plan being finalised.

Never once in the entire article are the words...sectarian ethnic cleansing used....
Interesting is it not????
And no mentioning of Kurdish ethnic cleansing in the Sunni Arab areas they have taken over....confirmed by HRW....
Ethnic cleansing is ongoing all over Syria....

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:56 PM

This ethnic cleansing exchange is now stalling as it appears Hezbollah and Iran and Assad are not holding to the signed agreement as many in FSA thought would happen....

Syrians stuck around Aleppo as evacuation deal stalls: monitor, activists
http://reut.rs/2pC9iDG

Thousands of Syrians were stuck in and around Aleppo on Saturday as a deal to evacuate two Shi'ite villages in return for Sunni rebels and their families being allowed to leave two besieged towns near Damascus stalled, a monitor and activists said.
Rebels and civilians who had left Madaya near Damascus on Friday sat outside rows of coaches in government-held Aleppo city, waiting to move onto their final destination of insurgent-held Idlib, pictures sent by a pro-opposition activist showed.
Meanwhile residents and pro-government fighters who had left the two rebel-besieged Shi'ite villages in Idlib province waited still in insurgent territory on Aleppo's outskirts to cross into the city, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
The British-based Observatory said the delay was because rebel fighters from another town included in the deal, Zabadani near Damascus, had not yet been granted safe passage out.

Assad as usual is behind this move as he was not happy about it and it left him out of the deal....as did it leave the Russians out of it...

Syria Regime loyalist fighters from #Kafarya/#Fuah pocket & their families still wait for access to #Aleppo city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhiSfQvoXWs#
Seems both bus convoys with 8000+ people stuck in south #Aleppo
(rebels in Ramouseh, regime in Rashidin)

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:57 PM

Syria Regime loyalist fighters from Kafarya/Fuah pocket & their families still wait for access to Aleppo city
https://youtu.be/fhiSfQvoXWs

Assad troops have still not allowed Sunni fighters and their families to leave the last Sunni town.....

BUT this is what awaited the Shia fighters and their families prior to being stopped AND it was from Assad forces....

Syria #Assad-forces shelling western outskirts of #Aleppo city were thousands regime loyalist from #Idlib (Fuah & Kafarya) wait for access

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:58 PM

This ethnic cleansing swap is now going South in an extreme hurry...sad actually even if an ethnic cleansing...

Unfortunate reports of a remotely detonated car-bomb targeted civilians and fighters evacuated from Fu'a and Kafrya outside Aleppo, Rashdin.

Syria #TahrirSouri explosion hit bus station in#Rashedeen #Aleppo where Fuaa&Kefraya residents waiting to be moved,dozens killed&injured

WHAT is extremely sad is the fact that the Sunni FSA rebels guarding the safety of the Shia fighters and their families...were also targeted and killed and wounded in this VBIED strike...

A car bomb hit waiting civilians from Fuah & Kefraya (and guarding rebels) just west of #Aleppo city.
Dozens dead.
A terrible crime!

CORE reason...the Assad regime forces are not holding to allowing the last Sunni town to be evacuated as agreed to....

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 01:59 PM

JUST what the heck...did someone actually use a regime vehicle as an VBIED which was under complete regime control all the time????

Syria pro-regime media first say regime was able to send aid for people in Rasedeen ......then say car exploded was carrying aid.

Initial reports of ~100 people killed in the attack.

Activists reported many HTS/AhS fighters killed and injured in the blast allegedly came from "a parked milk car" dispatched from regime end.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 02:02 PM

THIS is important to inhale and fully understand.......

Regime blames HTS of course.

But HTS fighters are among the dead.

Activists tell me,the regime postponed the entrance to attack the refugees

These activists are highly accurate in their assumptions that Assad was behind this attack as it was Assad forces that did not let the second Sunni town evacuate as agreed to and thus held up these refugees from moving onward as agreed to...

Huge casualty toll from the Aleppo terror attack. Many victims amongst Fuah/Kefraya civilians and rebel fighters.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 02:42 PM

That's a most absurd claim:#Hezbollah won't intentionally murder Shiites loyal to Hezbollah—that's absolutely harām.

Aleppo24 @24Aleppo
.@SARC_Aleppo BREAKING: special unit of #Russia|n army srounded the convoy of Zabadany and Madaya and closed the road there to prevent any reaction.

BREAKING: Syrian TV says 39 killed in explosion that hit near evacuation buses outside Aleppo city.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 02:44 PM

The car bomb attack against Kafraya and Foua civilians pulls a page from Zarqawi's playbook: fan eternal war weaponizing sectarianism.

Was this potentially a bomb attack via IS sleeper cell.....if a regime vehicle was the bomb actually a magnetic sticky IED....often seen used by AQI/Is in Iraq is the 2009-2010 timeframes...

BUT WAIT...can in fact the interests of IS and Assad have overlapped in this particular attack???

YES they can as this is the indicator....

BREAKING!Tens of ambulances reached Bab-Al-Hawa to rescue the injuries of kafraya& Foua after Assad forces refused to let them in to Aleppo

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 04:29 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 04:30 PM

Latakia: #HTS car bomb has killed many pro-#Assad forces at #Salma in Northern #Latakia today.

Rouhani says Iran needs "no one's permission" to build missiles
http://reut.rs/2oBZZWy

Hama: Rebels blowing up #Assad T-55 with #TOW at #Majdal village in northwestern #Hama today.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 05:22 PM

To be clear
The "aid" vehicle from #Assad areas hit the REBEL side of the street.
Dozens of evacuees got "collateral" victims in the busses.

Unlikely that a truck full with explosive can pass dozens of regime checkpoints, unless the regime gave the order.

Because most pro-#Assad forces never left #Fuah and #Kefraya, while all rebels have left #Madaya and #Zabadani.

More than 40 injured victims from the terrorist explosion targeting Fua & Kafreya buses are being treated in @sams_usa hospital nearby @BBC

Regime sent 3 trucks 'of food' & 1 blew up as it approached the buses. There were many rebels standing next to the truck who also died

Charles Lister
✔
@Charles_Lister
Sources in Rashideen:

- SVBIED came from regime area
- Bomber likely #ISIS & ID'd himself as SARC
- HTS & Ahrar among fatalities
- 25+ dead

Serious problem now....
Aleppo: Displaced civilians from #Madaya & #Zabadani are in the hands of pro-#Assad forces now. A total disaster.

Assadis tried to create a fake statement by Jaysh al Islam that claimed responsibility for the attack. What a surprise

ASSADPUTIN REGIMES DON'T ALLOW INJURED SHIITE PEOPLE INTO ALEPPO SO THEY ARE BROUGHT TO TURKEY.

Reminder, this population swap deal was agreed by Ahrar al-Sham & #Iran:
https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/852947916868210688#…
Likely spoilers: #ISIS, Assad

Aleppo: Sunni civilians and rebels, including #HTS, treating the wounded Shia civilians. #HTS provided dozens of ambulances.

A #Fouah/#Kfarya civilian to @ZamanEnglish News
"A van was distributing crisps (chips). Children started running after it. It then exploded"

BREAKING: Syria TV: Population transfer resumes after blast near evacuation buses outside Aleppo city killed dozens.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 05:34 PM

"Because there is no justice, there is no hope": the struggle to bring #Assad to account for crimes against humanity.

The Commission for International Justice and Accountability has to keep its location in Europe secret for fear of retribution from #Assad.

The #Assad regime's record of terrorism in Europe is very extensive. Among its cut-outs were Ilyich Sanchez ("Carlos the Jackal").

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 05:39 PM

Bodies of civilian evacuees from #Foua #Kefarya including many young children
100 dead confirmed by WhiteHelmets

REMEMBER it was actually targeting Sham and HTS guards who were with the Shia refugees acting as a security detachment....

IT was HTS and Sham that immediately assisted the Shia wounded and got them to Sunni hospitals WHEN Assad refused to treat Shia inured...and or allow ambulances to the scene....

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 05:44 PM

N. #Hama: thermobaric bomb dropped by #RuAF in middle of Al-Lataminah.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.319888&lon=36.619663&z=13&m#

Hama: Many #Russia|n airstrikes against civilians in Northern #Hama today, far away from the frontlines.

Aleppo: 15 buses w/ people from #Fuah/#Kefraya reached Aleppo while 8 ambulances w/ wounded from #Madaya/#Zabadani arrived in Reb territory

The regime finally allowed residents from Fuah & Kefraya into Aleppo after almost 2 days of waiting and the deadly car bomb attack.

Injured survivors being treated in a field hospital in idlib
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dco-rMbsvGs#

White helmets say at least 100--Syrian TV says dozens killed in blast near evacuation buses (from @AP)
http://bigstory.ap.org/f862839a8f284c419794c18ab0b04e57#

A symbol: Civil Defense @SyriaCivilDef helping an elderly woman from #Fuah/#Kefraya after today's bombing in W. #Aleppo

JWing

04-15-2017, 05:49 PM

Qataris who were kidnapped in southern Iraq on a hunting trip were used by Iran for a Shiite-Sunni population swap in 4 Syrian towns. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/14/besieged-syria-towns-evacuated-as-regime-and-rebels-begin-huge-people-swap

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 05:57 PM

Daraa: #RuAF carried out extremely powerful airstrikes for the 2nd day in Rebel-held Daraa.

JWing

04-15-2017, 05:58 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 06:01 PM

Breaking. #HTS claims car bomb attack deep inside Regime territory targeting gathering of pro-Assad inside town of #Salma (NE #Latakia).

Hama Battle: bulldozer erecting huge earth barrier destroyed by Jaish Al-Izza using a #TOW on #Majdal front.

OUTLAW 09

04-15-2017, 06:09 PM

SDF continues offensive against IS affiliates in Yarmouk valley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgQZAeGdCRg#
pic.twitter.com/wRxNwcq4yZ

CrowBat

04-15-2017, 07:09 PM

Iranian proxies kidnapped Turkish workers in Iraq back in 2015 to be used in talks over 2 of the Syrian towns involved in the Qatari case. http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2015/10/did-kidnapping-of-turkish-workers-in.html
Guess, nowadays nobody recalls Hezbollah hijacking US- and British citizens in Lebanon of the 1980s - and Tehran exchanging them for US arms and spares...

Azor

04-15-2017, 07:21 PM

BUT as long as it takes a single C130 to deliver it and that C130 is not a noted breaker of a solid ADA2 environment ....

Even those that it is suppose to "impress" know it's main weaknesses.....last time I checked IS did not have a sophisticated ADA2 environment over AFG....

At least the Daisycutter was used to open up Landing Zones for troops...but again also never used in a heavy ADA2 environment...

In fact the largest Russian thermobaric weapon is far more effective...against cave environments than is the MOAB...

The heavier MOP can be delivered by B-2. I'd trust that after some minor modifications, the MOAB could be delivered by B-2s as well.

Are you really bringing up the FOAB? Who really knows if it works as advertised.

Azor

04-15-2017, 07:22 PM

Russia throwing Assad to the wolves? State media now reporting Syria dictator has hidden chemical weapons storage
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2877991&2877991#

Signs show Russia increasingly fed up with Assad
http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.783432

Which was the point I was trying to make earlier, that you had discounted. But I suppose that Haaretz is more incisive than Galeotti, Kofman or deductive reasoning.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 05:47 AM

Which was the point I was trying to make earlier, that you had discounted. But I suppose that Haaretz is more incisive than Galeotti, Kofman or deductive reasoning.

Again you do not get it....this was IMHO another well thought out Russian deflection to appease Trump of sorts....

Putin might in the end abandon Assad BUT he will not abandon Syria...where he has to a large degree "won" a major FP victory over what he thinks is a superpower the US giving him equal bragging rights....a naval base...two airfields and three other bases inside Syria...parking him next to Iran allowing him to defend Iranian interests and able to influence Israel...and the Med and gives him a springboard to Libya.

Not counting courting of Turkey and parking himself on the NATO southern flank.....

So again If he abandons Assad...the person replacing him will be of Russian choice again also backed by Iran..

Sometimes I post articles that lend themselves to deeper thoughts other than their titles....

The article could have easily said I am ditching support for the leaders of the DNR and LNR.....which might be a great article title but does not really reflect Putin's geo political goals...in his political war with the West led by the US.

1. damage and discredit NATO
2. damage and discredit EU focusing on Germany
3. disconnect the Us totally from NATO/EU and kicked out of ME.....

If you seriously look that these three critical geo political goals Putin all in all is not doing to badly....

Massively helped along the way by Obama and now Trump.....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 06:18 AM

Azor...you made a previous comment which I responded to about possible division of Syria and I argued get rid of Assad and his criminals and if one really reads the FSA government proposals for an after Assad there is a true possibility of a reuniting of Syria...the sectarian divisions between true Syrians are not that badly damaged...

BUT the Kurds and Iran are creating far deeper ones right now....

Key point is yesterday's SVIED attack on the ethnic cleansing convoy of Shia...they were actually under the protection of HTS and Sham who both spent a large amount of time making sure they had food and water and security and they themselves were targeted as well....

Assad refused medical assistance to "fellow Shia"...Sunni HTS/Sham then organized their own ambulance services and got many to Sunni aid stations..fought the resulting car fires and did what was humanly possible for the victims...with AK47s slung over their shoulders barrels downward....

REMEMBER Assad did nothing for this convoy with many are saying it was deliberately held up to allow for a SVIED attack by IS....

DO I need to repost all the articles on the "closeness of Assad and IS"?

Unfortunatelty, some proAssadists go as far a cropping out a White Helmet to "prove" the Syria Civil Defence wasn't helping at the scene of the car bomb.

Aleppo: Video shows first responders, overwhelmed with feelings, trying to rescue wounded children after the horrific bomb attack today.

Devastating photo @AbdHabak - Syrian videographer next to the charred body of a child. 39 children out of 70 killed by suicide bomber

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 06:26 AM

Azor..do I need to comment on this..says it all and from the ME...

Al Jazeera English
✔
@AJEnglish
Opinion: Donald Trump's Wag the Dog moment
"Bombs away"
http://aje.io/5fg9

BTW..well worth reading it especially the charts on use of propaganda

QUOTE:
The enemy commits torture, atrocity, and murder because he is a sadist who enjoys killing.

We use surgical or strategic violence only because we are forced to by the enemy.

As a popular passion-producer, experience indicates that there is nothing quite like the atrocity story.

In general, you should seem to prove what people already want to believe, and to justify what they already want to do.

Trump followed this to the T.....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 06:45 AM

This chemical use by rebels myth was started by Russian Today and Sputnik International....

Pro-regime Hama network says area hospitals must be on standby and prepared for possible chemical weapons attacks by rebels

Several reports in Assad regime media about possible chemical attacks in rebel-held Ghouta, #Damascus and east #Hama

Damascus/#Hama: #Assad regime media are talking about chemical attacks that could happen in Eastern #Damascus or #Hama soon.

Just in from a FSA activist...A massive media campaign by D regime's media about a plan 4 a chemical attack on al-Ghouta #Damascus they usually do it to cover their Plans

So if we use the so called "Russian reverse mirroring concept" fist seen used by the Russians in Crimea and eastern Ukraine...meaning everything I claim others are doing IS exactly what I am doing...THEN more chemical attacks are coming.....

If the stories of Assad still controlling tons of CWs are in fact true then we just might see a massive widespread CW attack occur....

Militarily Assad is barely hanging on and a CW attack on their areas might be envisioned as an effective way to force the rebels to give up....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 07:37 AM

Idlib: The same situation in #Tarmala in #Idlib Province. #Russia|n airstrikes with thermite bombs have set the village on fire.

Incendiary cluster munitions attacks are now being used to simply burn sunni rebel towns and villages to the ground......

Total violation of International Humanitarian Law AND Trump ignores it.....

Well "Wag the Dog" with his TLAM strike appears to be valid here now....

Hama: 30+ #Russia|n airstrikes with thermite bombs have hit #Lataminah in Northern #Hama so far. Town is burning.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.320868&lon=36.622581&z=13&m=b#

AND these attacks are not deliberate?????

Assad scumbags celebrating #Russia|n & #Assad airstrikes against innocent civilians tonight.

SO where is that fearless US leader willing to toss TLAMS into Syria in the defense of civilians being attacked by chemical weapons and incendiary munitions count as chemical weapons under IHL....

WHERE is he...off playing this 18th day of golf at the taxpayers expense...USSS has spent already 35,000 USDs just on golf cart rentals.....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 07:44 AM

Syria: Massive #Russia|n & #Assad bombing campaign with dozens of warplanes & 100s of airstrikes in #Hama & #Idlib Provinces tonight.

Azor

04-16-2017, 09:08 AM

Putin might in the end abandon Assad BUT he will not abandon Syria...where he has to a large degree "won" a major FP victory over what he thinks is a superpower the US giving him equal bragging rights...a naval base...two airfields and three other bases inside Syria...parking him next to Iran allowing him to defend Iranian interests and able to influence Israel...and the Med and gives him a springboard to Libya. Not counting courting of Turkey and parking himself on the NATO southern flank...So again If he abandons Assad...the person replacing him will be of Russian choice again also backed by Iran…

If you had actually read my comments on this thread, you would have noticed that I never suggested for an instant that Russia could be pushed out of Syria. My thinking was always along the lines of Assad and Khamenei wanting to conquer the entire country, and Putin wanting a secure pro-Russian enclave in the west, which he more or less has.

Putin seems reluctant to help Assad reconquer the Sunni Arab center and east, to say nothing of the Sunni Kurdish north. Yet Putin is in no position to oust Assad in favor of a less greedy Alawi leader. Assad would have to be on the brink of defeat and a rebel offensive into Latakia before Putin would have the leverage over both Khamenei and Assad’s supporters.

Currently, only the U.S. can drive a wedge between Putin and Assad/Khamenei, but far more than the fate of Syria would be at stake. As a first step, I would repeat my earlier recommendation to treat all foreign Shia militias and the entire IRGC as FTOs, and target them whenever they are on the offensive in Sunni Arab or mixed areas to drive them either to the western enclave or out of Syria.

Sometimes I post articles that lend themselves to deeper thoughts other than their titles...The article could have easily said I am ditching support for the leaders of the DNR and LNR...which might be a great article title but does not really reflect Putin's geo political goals...in his political war with the West led by the US.

There are fears and goals that Putin states openly, and ones that he does not. For instance, his violation of the INF Treaty has nothing at all to do with Russia-NATO tensions, but China’s military capabilities. Despite his use of force to deter further EU and/or NATO expansion, Putin is equally wary of China’s bid for mastery in Central Asia.

The West is an easier target for Putin, because it is fairly conciliatory with regard to Russia, and because China’s conventional capabilities are incredibly threatening. The West has no interest in Russian territory, but the same is not true of China, which looks greedily at the sparsely-inhabited and resource-rich Siberian and Far Eastern districts. Ideally, Putin wants the U.S. out of Europe and China focused southeast, in order for Russia to be the leading power of Eurasia by virtue of its first-among-equals status in Russian-led European and Central Asian coalitions.

Azor...you made a previous comment which I responded to about possible division of Syria and I argued get rid of Assad and his criminals and if one really reads the FSA government proposals for an after Assad there is a true possibility of a reuniting of Syria...the sectarian divisions between true Syrians are not that badly damaged...

BUT the Kurds and Iran are creating far deeper ones right now...

Key point is yesterday's SVIED attack on the ethnic cleansing convoy of Shia...they were actually under the protection of HTS and Sham who both spent a large amount of time making sure they had food and water and security and they themselves were targeted as well...

Assad refused medical assistance to "fellow Shia"...Sunni HTS/Sham then organized their own ambulance services and got many to Sunni aid stations..fought the resulting car fires and did what was humanly possible for the victims...with AK47s slung over their shoulders barrels downward...

REMEMBER Assad did nothing for this convoy with many are saying it was deliberately held up to allow for a SVIED attack by IS...

The Kurds naturally want an independent Kurdish state, not reintegration into Syria. In northern Iraq and northern Syria that ship has sailed. The more important question is how to make Rojava more democratic and liberal along the lines of the KRG, rather than allowing it to remain under one-party PYD/PKK rule.

Yes, Assad wants to keep the Civil War sectarian so as to ensure the loyalty of the Alawis, Christians and Druze; atrocities against Sunni Arabs also help in this regard because they make peace and reconciliation difficult if not impossible. Such tactics were also used by Stalin and Hitler.

Regardless, Syria’s existence as a unitary state is over. Even if it can be kept as a weak and federalized state, the ripple effects will destabilize Iraq, Turkey and Iran, and may radiate further into Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

CrowBat

04-16-2017, 11:08 AM

Syria: Massive #Russia|n & #Assad bombing campaign with dozens of warplanes & 100s of airstrikes in #Hama & #Idlib Provinces tonight.
Well, it's not that 'massive' by number of sorties, but yes: plenty of RBK-500s filled with termite coming down:

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 15 April#2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-15-april-2017-db50739a593d).

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 11:25 AM

If you had actually read my comments on this thread, you would have noticed that I never suggested for an instant that Russia could be pushed out of Syria. My thinking was always along the lines of Assad and Khamenei wanting to conquer the entire country, and Putin wanting a secure pro-Russian enclave in the west, which he more or less has.

Putin seems reluctant to help Assad reconquer the Sunni Arab center and east, to say nothing of the Sunni Kurdish north. Yet Putin is in no position to oust Assad in favor of a less greedy Alawi leader. Assad would have to be on the brink of defeat and a rebel offensive into Latakia before Putin would have the leverage over both Khamenei and Assad’s supporters.

Currently, only the U.S. can drive a wedge between Putin and Assad/Khamenei, but far more than the fate of Syria would be at stake. As a first step, I would repeat my earlier recommendation to treat all foreign Shia militias and the entire IRGC as FTOs, and target them whenever they are on the offensive in Sunni Arab or mixed areas to drive them either to the western enclave or out of Syria.

There are fears and goals that Putin states openly, and ones that he does not. For instance, his violation of the INF Treaty has nothing at all to do with Russia-NATO tensions, but China’s military capabilities. Despite his use of force to deter further EU and/or NATO expansion, Putin is equally wary of China’s bid for mastery in Central Asia.

The West is an easier target for Putin, because it is fairly conciliatory with regard to Russia, and because China’s conventional capabilities are incredibly threatening. The West has no interest in Russian territory, but the same is not true of China, which looks greedily at the sparsely-inhabited and resource-rich Siberian and Far Eastern districts. Ideally, Putin wants the U.S. out of Europe and China focused southeast, in order for Russia to be the leading power of Eurasia by virtue of its first-among-equals status in Russian-led European and Central Asian coalitions.

The Kurds naturally want an independent Kurdish state, not reintegration into Syria. In northern Iraq and northern Syria that ship has sailed. The more important question is how to make Rojava more democratic and liberal along the lines of the KRG, rather than allowing it to remain under one-party PYD/PKK rule.

Yes, Assad wants to keep the Civil War sectarian so as to ensure the loyalty of the Alawis, Christians and Druze; atrocities against Sunni Arabs also help in this regard because they make peace and reconciliation difficult if not impossible. Such tactics were also used by Stalin and Hitler.

Regardless, Syria’s existence as a unitary state is over. Even if it can be kept as a weak and federalized state, the ripple effects will destabilize Iraq, Turkey and Iran, and may radiate further into Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Regardless, Syria’s existence as a unitary state is over. Even if it can be kept as a weak and federalized state, the ripple effects will destabilize Iraq, Turkey and Iran, and may radiate further into Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Totally and completely disagree....there are numerous examples over the last year where the Sunni side has attempted to not allow the fighting to truly degrade into pure sectarian fighting.....

Where it has gone sectarian it was forced on them by the Shia militias... uncontrolled Assad regime warlords and on a number of occasions Iraqi Hezbollah...

All the while facing major cluster incendiary munitions, thermobaric bombs/TOS-1 attacks, napalm..bunkerbusters..chlorine and now sarin attacks....starvation...ethnic cleanings and etc......

I am actually surprised that the entire FSA has not gone totally over to HTS in the last months...

What Assad...Iran and Putin are attempting to do is to resettle a majority of Syria as Shia based driving largely out the 73% Sunni Arab population by attempting through this ethnic displacement to force all Sunni's into an ever smaller and smaller portion of Syria...OR drive them completely out of Syria.....and reduce that percentage to under say 30-42%...with the Shia...Druze and Christian populations being then in the majority...

Same exact plan is underway currently in Iraq where the 60% Shia are driving the 35% Sunni population even lower percentage wise....

Hitler would be envious......

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 11:37 AM

Syria, Homs: Video tour of damage to school in Kafer Laha village from government airstrike
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ni49hOEZGtE#

Russian warplanes bombard the area of Harash at city of Ma'arat al-Nu'man south of Idlib

Airstrike on Khan Shaykhun, Idlib earlier today
pic.twitter.com/BqOU9f8fGd
ANOTHER incendiary cluster munitions air strike....

SCD facilities were hard hit in these strikes...

Assad and Putin trying desperately trying to destroy any evidence of a chemical attack...

Daraa: SyAF Mi-25 dropping 4 unguided bombs over Rebel-held Daraa. pic.twitter.com/WaBi090Ecq

Death toll from Aleppo Shia convoy bomb attack at least 112

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 11:59 AM

Pro #Syrian_Regime published then deleted!
The car that exploded in #Alrashden was carrying food for children.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 12:01 PM

OK who is on an unannounced mission to Syria from the US.......

INTERESTING:
A plane from Washington landed at Kamıshlı airport (under #SAA control)

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 12:09 PM

Russian jets bombed the hospital & Civil Defense center in Khan Sheikhoun this morning for the 2nd time in the span of 2 weeks

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:01 PM

See the unspeakable #Kremlin regime brutality vs. peaceful civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZH-N3HLH3Ao#…

Thermobaric bomb being used here....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:03 PM

New video.
Heavy #Russian parachute bombs are to blame for the four giant explosions in #Lataminah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WCsl2bmNCQ#…

Another video showing the extreme #Kremlin regime attacks on #Lataminah in #Ham province today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDLmXAGspNY#…

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:04 PM

@SyriaCivilDef rescue two children after an #Assad regime air strike on #Douma city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syGYP7Osl8k#…

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:07 PM

Kremlin regime attacks totally destroyed parts of #Daraa.
Still, they continued today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFJmDPJUPYw#…

JUST as in Aleppo....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:10 PM

MORE evidence of Assad/Putin attacking civilians in full and complete violation of the International Humanitarian Law on the use of incendiary weapons against civilians.....WHICH Russia signed...

More footage of the #Kremlin regime incendiary bomb attack on a small village in #Idlib province 3 hours ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRRWKj6c7oo#…

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:16 PM

AFTER the MASSIVE Trump "Wag the Dog" TLAM show for his voters, his polling numbers and to distract from the Russian connections investigation........BUT that so called "red line in the sand" same as Obama actually.... all verbal and that was about it....

NOTICE he remains TOTALLY and COMPLETELY silent on this massive series of Assad/Putin incendiary cluster munitions attacks which ALSO qualify as "chemical weapons attacks".....

The #Kremlin regime air force is on a rampage in #Idlib and #Hama province today.
Nonstop terror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFdkjAHAJ28#…

After the last days of a massive incendiary cluster munitions strikes on civilians and bunker busters DOES in fact the political theory of "Wag the Dog"....apply now to Trump as it applied to Bush 2??????

Trump and his merry WH and of brothers SEEMS to not be aware of Putin's in your face challenge to him..AS he is doing nothing but golfing.....

Another Trump "Wag the Dog" moment with his MOAB strike.......which was designed to impress both China and NK.....If one looks at the Chinese statements coming out of Beijing the last three days THEY are warning Trump as much as NK...so if one counts the 150K Chinese troops who have close to the NK border I do not see them "calming down NK".......

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump 3h
3 hours ago

Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem? We will see what happens!
SO I theory WHAT Trump is saying if the Chinese cannot totally stop NK on their nuclear path and their ICBM path he will then call them currency manipulator's????

IF we consider the NK response being the failed ballistic missile firing from today potentially then the nuclear test it appears China did not slow down NK at all....

SO is the currency manipulation charges now coming.....never actually....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:29 PM

Opposition photojournalist @AbdHabak seen reacting to #Rashideen bombing (L) then rescuing injured children (R) from the scene.
GRAPHIC

Sunni journalist...Shia child...

The following is an interesting social media analysis....

Keep in mind: Opposition activists published the video,showing the SVBIED that killed 126 S-W of #Aleppo did not approach from regime areas.

Nothing to hide, nothing to conceal.
Those behind the attack hate Sunni rebels as much as Shiite civilians.

AND they didn't care the attack would only help the #Assad narrative.
This excludes a number of possible suspects and includes others.

In theory the vehicle could have come from regime areas by a number of different routes but in the end it did in fact target rebels being Sham and HTS and Shia refugees were collateral damage....

Only two possibilities......Assad forces and or IS and we know just how connected IS and Assad are....especially wen one thinks of how many IS SVIEDs have made it lately through Assad check points.....in their Damascus attacks.....

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:31 PM

Al Jazeera journo Adham Abu al-Hossam seen rescuing Shia civilians in #Rashideen.

Shia militiamen previously killed his family in #Binnish.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:33 PM

White Helmets (@SyriaCivilDefe) worked hand-in-hand with #Syria Arab Red Crescent (@SYRedCrescent) today in #Rashideen, saving lives.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:55 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:57 PM

Hama: Rebels have shelled #Hama Airbase with 40 Grad rockets and destroyed #Assad Mig-23 warplane, ammo depot & several regime buildings.

Hama Battle: thick smoke rising from #Hama Airbase after hit by dozens of Grad rockets.

Hama: Heavy fighting at #Souran. #HTS destroyed an #Assad T-72 with #ATGM.

Hama Battle: pro-Regime forces launched assault on #Souran axis after heavy shelling and airstirkes. #HTS took out a T-72 with #ATGM.

NW #Aleppo: incendiary attack on Yaqid Al-Adas (near #Anadan).
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.264622&lon=37.017918&z=13&m#…

E. #Damascus: Ahrar Al-Sham fighters on #Qabun front.

E. #Damascus: powerful blasts coming from #Qabun where Regime is using UR-77 Meteorit's high explosive mine-clearing charges.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 03:58 PM

Aleppo: The cargo area of the suspected blue truck seen in video SVBIED was empty. The bomb was probably in the driver's cabin.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 06:05 PM

WOW.....Now the Russian media has entered the realm of "an altered state of reality".....

Russia's state TV says #Trump ordered #Syria strikes based on fake news brought to him by Ivanka, calls the outcome fruitless and shameful.

NOW double WOW.....

Russia's state TV: #Trump says #NATO is no longer obsolete, because member countries are willing to look the other way on U.S. war crimes.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 06:34 PM

Damascus: Rebels have destroyed an #Assad T-72 at the #Qaboun frontline in Eastern #Damascus today.

Hama: Massive destruction in #Lataminah in Northern #Hama after heavy #Russia|n airstrikes today. There are still civilians in the town.

Aleppo: Video shows #ISIS storming #Assad regime positions in Eastern #Aleppo.

Hama Battle: Regime pre-emptive shelling on #Souran with artillery on Mount Zin Al-Abdeen and what looks like thermobaric rounds.

Hama: Ahrar Al-Sham shelled pro-Regime forces on #Khattab front.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.200464&lon=36.666698&z=13&m#…

Wave of 10 thermobaric bombs dropped by #RuAF over town of Kafr Zita, creating huge fireballs & massive destruction. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.371415&lon=36.604042&z=12&m#…

RuAF is literally wiping out whole areas dropping this time waves of thermobaric bombs all over N. #Hama.

Hama Battle: pro-Regime forces took back #Souran & nearby areas. In 23 days they reversed all gains Rebels made in 1st 3 days of offensive.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 07:00 PM

Boubaker al-Hakim, #IS jihadi #Assad once helped into #Iraq who was later connected to Charlie Hebdo, might be alive
https://goo.gl/yaBmrw

IMPORTANT
Publishing jihadi critics exposes myth of jihadi unity, effectiveness, as we've seen on social media, says @hxhassan

Social media helps us to properly chart extremism
Hassan Hassan
April 16, 2017 Updated: April 16, 2017
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/social-media-helps-us-to-properly-chart-extremism

The 3rd anniversary for raqqa is being slaughtered silently , 3 Years of reporting 3 years of Suffering .#Raqqa #Syria #RBSS

A terrible price paid by @Raqqa_SL for resisting #IS and #Assad. But still they continue to try to provide information to the outside world.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 07:33 PM

Expectations after a "yes" campaign win in #Turkey: A new operation in #Syria, similar to Euphrates Shield.

Arabs who really believe in democracy used to look up to Turkey as example of how democracy can work in a Muslim country. This is over now.

OUTLAW 09

04-16-2017, 07:55 PM

Azor...this goes to what I have been saying .........

Opposition fighter helping Regime soldier after the car bomb attack on buses in west of #Aleppo

Azor

04-16-2017, 11:57 PM

Totally and completely disagree...there are numerous examples over the last year where the Sunni side has attempted to not allow the fighting to truly degrade into pure sectarian fighting...

Where it has gone sectarian it was forced on them by the Shia militias...uncontrolled Assad regime warlords and on a number of occasions Iraqi Hezbollah...

I never said that the Sunni Arabs have turned the conflict sectarian; that was Assad’s doing. Nevertheless, they have committed their own acts of sectarian violence, albeit nowhere near the level of Assad.

I would imagine that Syrian Sunni Arabs would treat Syrian Kurds, Syrian Alawis, Syrian Christians and Syrian Druze, far better than foreign Shia militias would treat them.

I am actually surprised that the entire FSA has not gone totally over to HTS in the last months...

That might win the FSA a few battles, but would lose them the war to be sure. They want to be included in the settlement process and continue to receive TOWs.

I am well aware of the sectarian cleansing at work in Syria, however, I would put the onus on Damascus and Teheran, with Moscow being a collaborator rather than instigator. Arguably, Merkel’s bid for sainthood has been conducive to this cleansing as Syrian Sunni Arabs are welcomed into Europe and taken off of Assad’s hands.

No, Hitler would not be “envious”. Stalin would be disappointed and complain at the slow and chaotic pace of the cleansing process. I did not bring these mass murderers up to compare them to Assad, because he is more akin to Karadzic and Tudjman, but to reiterate that this is a very old way to deal with restive populations.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 07:51 AM

Rebels bomb Sajnah barrier at south western outskirts of #Daraa City with Omar heavy rocket

Syria Rebels took over entire Manshiyya neigborhood in south western parts of #Daraa city

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 09:04 AM

Lataminah last night.
The merciless #Kremlin regime again hit the city & its inhabitants with incendiary bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifH717FiXPA#…

Russia keeps using its most advanced fighter jet Su-35 to drop unguided Soviet times bombs over #Daraa city.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 09:07 AM

The #Kremlin regime used the same parachute thermobaric bombs, it used in #Lataminah before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO1xaF5WNnQ#…

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 10:42 AM

UK gov has its own samples from Khan Sheikhoun. We tested them at Porton Down. Tested positive for sarin. Only Assad has sarin.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 10:46 AM

When the US kills civilians vs when Russia kills civilians

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 10:48 AM

While NOTHING hints at Syrian rebels, attacking themselves & Shiite refugees, the Kremlin's fully controlled and paid for puppet in London knows who's behind the attack.

Julian Assange‏#
@JulianAssange
Follow
After the massacre of shiite refugee families in Syria yesterday let's recall the Western media's original CIA backed "moderate rebel"

He means UBL......

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 11:01 AM

Daraa: extremely precise Omar Missile strike by Bunian Marsous op. room destroying a Regime rear-base in Al-Sijnah
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=32.622958&lon=36.090978&z=17&m#

Hama Battle: T-72 taken out yesterday by #HTS using a #TOW #ATGM near #Souran.

Documents from pro-Assad killed by Jaish Al-Islam on E. #Damascus fronts. One of them from Special Op. with resistance-#Hezbollah logo.

RuAF is literally wiping out whole areas dropping this time waves of thermobaric bombs all over N. #Hama.

Hama Battle: after #Souran yesterday, pro-Regime forces trying to enter Taybat Al-Imam backed by heavy shelling-airstrikes. Fierce clashes.

N. #Homs op. room announces #HTS Inghimasis raided & burned at dawn 6 Regime barriers SW of #Salamiyah, seizing vehicles, weapons & ammo.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 11:03 AM

W. #Aleppo: Rebels killed Brigadier General Ali Dib near Family House.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.216822&lon=37.075939&z=15&m#…

Rebels just took a t62 from the regime, then gave it back for some maintenance and retook it again.

Aleppo: Ahrar Al-Sham claims it killed several Regime officers inside Operation Room in Al-Zahraa district using artillery

E. #Damascus: Ahrar Al-Sham thwarted an attempt by Regime to advance on #Qabun front. One T-72 destroyed and another one damaged.

Free Syrian Army forces hitting regime areas & supply routes with mortar shells on Jisreen front

At least 3 civilians killed after regime warplanes conducted 7 airstrikes on #Qaboun neighborhood, Damascus

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 11:10 AM

Free Syrian Army forces fighting in northern rural Hama operations

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 11:11 AM

Free Syrian Army forces fighting in Daraa operations

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 11:47 AM

Also today, the #Kremlin regime air force hit #Lataminah with parachute-borne heavy bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UT4E8qv4-s#

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 11:52 AM

The Russian UK Embassy has the best Russian propaganda going these days....MAYBE there is a prize we know nothing about that is being offered by the Russian FM.....

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 11:55 AM

Russian and Assad aircraft getting a tad nervous ...for what reasons...??

Video from North Hama: aircraft deploying counter-measures
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/17-april-video-from-north-hama-aircraft-deploying-countermeasures#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K55RFsgpBpM#

Hama: #Russia|n warplanes dropping parachute bombs on #Syria|n towns in Northern #Hama while pro-#Assad forces advancing today.

Daraa: Khalid ibn al-Walid (#ISIS) claims that they have killed 25 Southern Front fighters and wounded 27 more in Western #Daraa Province.

Azor

04-17-2017, 03:57 PM

The Russian UK Embassy has the best Russian propaganda going these days....MAYBE there is a prize we know nothing about that is being offered by the Russian FM.....

David Suchet or Hercule Poirot?

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 04:21 PM

Hama: Photos show pro-#Assad forces who were killed as #HTS overran regime checkpoints & barriers southwest of #Salamiyeh last night.

Hama: #HTS shows some of the #Assad vehicles & weapons they captured southwest of #Salamiyeh today. #HTS launched raids from #Homs pocket.

4 Airstrikes targeted a hospital in Jabal al-Zawiya in Idlib and Puts hospital out of service

Several more airstrikes on Qabun district of Eastern Damascus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGGgG3KLfWk …

Hama: Situation right now:
- Pro-#Assad forces advancing
- No unity between the rebel groups
- No rebel counter-attacks in #Hama or #Aleppo

My new article on @bellingcat about #FSA Eastern Qalamoun faction Jaysh Usud al-Sharqiya...
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/04/17/jaysh-usud-al-sharqiya-exiles-euphrates/ …

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 05:38 PM

Interesting to say the least......

Islamic State seeking alliance with al Qaeda, Iraqi vice president says
http://reut.rs/2oEFcA8

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 06:10 PM

.@SyriaCivilDef video of hospital hit by airstrikes in Shnan, #Idlib. 5 casualties reported among staff/patients.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b8gcD6PyTI …

Idlib Health Directorate (@YJ_Sham) women's and children hospital in Shnan, #Idlib reportedly by 3 airstrikes today:

Eyewitness @AbdHabak confirms to @joeyayoub that the blue Hyundai (H100/Porter?) truck was the one which exploded.
https://globalvoices.org/2017/04/17/children-were-dying-everywhere-a-syrian-videographer-recounts-the-al-rashideen-explosion-that-killed-over-100/ …

This also explains the discrepancy with the story that the white van exploded while luring kids with chips; blue truck exploded next to it.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 06:13 PM

Aleppo: Rebels have killed #Assad Brigadier General Ali Dib in Western #Aleppo. He was a prominent commander from the Republican Guard.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 06:15 PM

Under the WOW rubric......

Moscow-backed Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has said that the Islamic State group (ISIS) is sending Nato-trained assassins to kill him.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 07:14 PM

Deir Ezzor province… a possible solution from southern Syria and a more complex one from north of the country

http://en.deirezzor24.net/deir-ezzor-province-a-possible-solution-from-southern-syria-and-a-more-complex-one-from-north-of-the-country/

Date: 17 / 4 / 2017

The Assud Sharqiyah, one of the most significant factions from Deir Ezzor province, has been involved in fierce clashes against Daesh in the Syrian Badiyah and the eastern Qalamon for several days. The ‘Sarajnah Al-Jiyahd’ (We Have Saddled Our Horses) military operation has enabled the faction to liberate, in cooperation with some factions from rural Damascus, around 150 km square of Syrian territory from the organization.

The ongoing military operations against the organization are aimed at the lifting of the siege on the eastern Qalamoun in order to link it with the liberated areas in the Syrian Badiya. However, the real goal of the Assud Sharqiyah is focused on liberation of the Syrian Badiya and the eastern Qalamon to secure supply routes for penetration operations into the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor province. The central command of the factions has made it obvious that its primary goal behind the operations is to re-enter Deir Ezzor three years after their withdrawal from it. It also wants to cut off roads to the SDF who will have more chance to move towards the province once the Raqqa campaign’s achievements are attained.

The Assud Sharqiyah has a strong support from the mass in Deir Ezzor, which will facilitate the liberation of the province in a short period. If they entered Deir Ezzor, it would trigger a local resistance from the anti-Daesh tribes and activate the sleeper cells of the factions who have long been conducting assassination operations against the organization and targeting its patrols with IEDs. This would confuse and shake the organization from the inside and reduce the effectivity of their security in the province. Assud Sharqiyah, and other local factions from Deir Ezzor, could also push many of the local factions, who have supported the organization since their arrival in the province, to fight alongside them by giving them guarantees, given the fact that the military operations of those factions have been limited to the regime-held areas.

The local factions in Deir Ezzor have more advantages than the SDF for they are full aware of of being the geographical and social structures of the province, meaning that a military solution from southern Syria is possible, more productive and practical if a it obtained a support from the international coalition. The coalition is not relying on them to the very moment, bearing in mind that they are fighting against Daesh in southern Syria without any logistical or areal support from it.

The southern solution is faced with a northern solution which is more complex and has a little chance to be put into practice. This is embodied in the halting of the Euphrates Shield military operations in northern Syria, of which two local factions from Deir Ezzor ( Ahrar Sharqiyah and the Deir Ezzor Military Council, which has been formed recently in northern Aleppo) were part of.

However, there is a hope that that solution would be implemented, mainly after the reports about an agreement between Turkey and USA to use factions from Raqqa, Deir Ezzor and Hasakah, who had operated under the command of Euphrates Shield, being backed by Turkish special forces to take part in the liberation of Raqqa and then Deir Ezzor in cooperation with the SDF.

This is not a new plan as Turkey had previously rejected similar plans after the launching of ‘Wrath of the Euphrates’ operation to liberate Raqqa. It does not want the SDF playing any role in the liberation of the province, making it the weakest and the most unlikely solution to execute. The practical and futile southern choice, which is not backed by the international coalition, and the complex northern solution puts the SDF in a favorable position in which they will be the selected forces to launch the operation to capture Deir Ezzor province from the organization for they are a trusted and tested US ally.

But, to rely mainly on the SDF in the battle of Deir Ezzor, will cause several difficulties, first of which is to eliminate the participation of the local faction in the battle, which would cause instability in the province if Daesh was expelled from it since the locals see the SDF as an enemy who has announced on public their alliance with the Assad regime and Russia. The SDF will also empower the propaganda of the organization which revolves around injustice being inflicted on Sunni Arabs by the alliance of the ‘forces of evil’, meaning that many families would side with it against for some of them see its presence in the province as the lesser of evil, preferring it over the regime and its allies.

The polices practiced by the SDF are counter-productive for the locals in Deir Ezzor, particularly because of the displacing of Arab civilians and carrying out massacres against them through the delivery of coordinates of their homes to the coalition in the countryside of Raqqa and Hasakah following the retreat of Daesh from those areas. The participation of some Arab factions in the SDF operation such as the Deir Ezzor Military Council and the Nukhbah Forces will not change the equation that much.

These scenarios are faced with the regime’s avidity for the capturing of the entire province from the organization. It has begun advancing towards eastern Aleppo and Palmyra in the Syrian Badiyah. It also formed a faction in Deir Ezzor made up of the locals and named ‘the Popular Mobilization” which has headquarters in Damascus and Palmyra in order to provide them with data and intelligence that would help them advance from Palymara to Shukhan from which they would advance to the Shula in north of Deir Ezzor, which would enable them to open a supply route for the regime forces who have been besieged in the regime held pocket since 2013.

Obama justified dithering by making it sound a choice between inaction and 'regime change'; 'boots on the ground' & 'Syria invasion'.

Trump’s abrupt regime-change pivot raises concerns about a “Mad Max Syria” should Assad fall -
https://theintercept.com/2017/04/17/trumps-abrupt-regime-change-pivot-raises-concerns-about-a-mad-max-syria-should-assad-fall/

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 07:19 PM

Abu Shuayb al-Masri -- a former ISIS, former Ahrar al-Sham, now with HTS -- says that HTS doesn't follow Abu Muhammad al-Maqdsi's fatwas.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 07:29 PM

Azor...something for you.....

Today: Anti-Assad protest in Sweidaa (Druze-majority governorate) for independence day. "The people want the downfall of the regime"

Among the chants in the 2nd video from Sweidaa: "Long live Syria, down with Assad'

Original links https://www.facebook.com/deyaalabdalla/posts/1366809620066185 …
https://www.facebook.com/deyaalabdalla/videos/vb.100002114791635/1366818936731920/?type=2&theater …

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 07:35 PM

SYRIA: The life and work of anarchist Omar Aziz in the Syrian revolution
https://thefreeonline.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/omar-aziz-anarchism-in-syrian-revolution/

Really worth reading......

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 07:36 PM

Very interesting that this popped up in my Google search when I searched for Khan Sheykhoun.
Fake news is a booming industry.

OUTLAW 09

04-17-2017, 07:38 PM

Joint Russian-Syrian film dubbed 'Palmyra' to be shot on location
http://tass.com/society/941742

Wonder what the actors danger pay will be????

davidbfpo

04-17-2017, 08:00 PM

OK folks calm down.

I do find the posts on refugees in Germany interesting, but this thread is for matters Syrian.

If you wish to post on refugees in Germany, use the Germany thread!

Tomorrow I will prune the refugee posts and move them to that thread. Task completed!

Azor

04-17-2017, 08:25 PM

Merkel enabled Assad's forced refugee flows?? I thought it was starvation...ethnic cleansing..constant cluster munitions, naplam and bunjerbusters driving IDPs and refugees??

Really.....

Trump is now a serious contender for his Syrian failed policies...actually he is worse than Obama as he has virtually no idea what to do other than continue Obama's agenda.....

Outside of a politically at home motivated TLAM strike what else has he actually done...increasing SOF but Raqqa is bogged down as well....

REMEMBER we are talking about "the Donald"...the same one who stated "I will eradicate IS/AQ from the face of the earth and do it immediately"...well 100 days in and outside of TLAMs what else has he done??

BUT WAIT...now he is in NKs face....AND Syria....??

He remains me of a 12 year old with ADAH on Ritalin....who cannot figure out how to use the TV remote.....

If the Syrian refugees were kept in neighboring countries, there would be much greater pressure to resolve the Syrian Civil War and resettle them. This pressure would be toward Assad ending his sectarian cleansing campaign and/or stepping down. Thus far, Germany and Sweden are enabling Assad's population transfers.

Obama watched Syria burn for almost six years. What Trump's strategy for Syria will be is unknown yet. Again, not delving into U.S. domestic politics here.

Azor

04-17-2017, 09:36 PM

From Roger McDermott at the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-air-defense-us-strike-al-shayrat/

Moscow’s reaction to the United States’ cruise missile strike on a regime target in Syria, on April 7, has proved both swift and predictable: ranging from condemning an “act of aggression,” to suspend the bilateral de-confliction agreement and promising to further boost Syria’s air defense capability (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, April 9). However, some Western and Russian experts have utilized the US strike to question the capability of Russia’s most advanced air defense systems, including the S-400 and S-300V4, in certain cases reaching the conclusion that such assets are ineffective. It is worth highlighting Russian claims and analyses of the US cruise missile attack to establish what issues are of real concern to Moscow and its implications for Russian air defense in Syria (Vzglyad, April 7).

Russian reporting concerning the attack establishes the following basic facts. Around 03:40 (Moscow time), on April 7, the USS Porter and USS Ross destroyers launched a massive assault by firing 59 sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCM) against the Al-Shayrat airbase in Syria. Moscow had been informed two hours in advance (although mainstream US media reporting suggests the Russians were given only one hour), and measures were taken to ensure that no Russian personnel at the airbase would be harmed. At this point, many of the other details surrounding the Tomahawk cruise missile strike diverge between Moscow and Washington: the former alleges there was no delivery of chemical weapons from the airbase on Idlib earlier in the week, and suggests only 23 missiles hit the target. One issue that stands out in Russian media analysis is that the strike supposedly proved ineffective, destroying only nine aircraft, damaging hangers and airbase infrastructure but failing to cripple the airbase. Within a short period, the Syrian Air Force resumed operational use of the airbase, the Russian media reports (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, April 10; Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, April 7).

However, questions surrounding the possible implications of the strike on Al-Shayrat for Russian air defense systems relate to the presence of the advanced S-400 system to protect the Russian airbase in Latakia and the S-300V4 system located at the Tartus naval base. These are among a number of other Russian air defense systems deployed in Syria, largely in response to the downing of the Su-24M attack jet, in November 2015, by the Turkish Air Force. The S-400, depending on the missile used, has a range of up to 400 kilometers, while the S-300V4 uses the 9M82M missile against targets up to 200 km away. Since the reinforcement of Russia’s air defense capabilities in Syria and following the formation of the joint Russia-Syria Air Defense system, Russian officials have exaggerated the capacity of these assets, claiming Moscow has built up an air defense bubble covering the entire Syrian airspace. Nonetheless, questioning the competency of the S-400 and S-300V4 systems based on the consequences of the April 7 US cruise missile strike misreads the actual capability of these assets (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, April 10).

These systems are not principally designed to counter low-flying subsonic Tomahawks; their capacity to attempt this is limited to approximately 30–40 km. Colonel (retired) Mikhail Khodarenok, a defense correspondent for Gazeta.ru and an air defense specialist, notes the Al-Shayrat airbase is located around 200 km from Latakia, which he suggests lies at the outer limit of the S-400 range: to strike a target at this range requires it to be flying at an altitude of 8–9 km. If it flies lower, the S-400’s multifunctional radar cannot see the cruise missile due to the curvature of the Earth’s surface. Similarly, the S-300V4 at Tartus has a range of around 100 km and requires a target altitude of 6–7 km. According to Air Force Colonel General (retired) Igor Maltsev, the former chief of the Main Staff in the Air Defense Troops, since Tomahawks fly at 50–60 meters above the ground, the outer effective range for the S-300V4 system would only be around 24–26 km in cross country terrain. Maltsev concluded that the S-400 and S-300V4 located in Latakia and Tartus did not have even a theoretical chance to counter the US cruise missile strike. Moreover, to protect against a similar strike in the future, Maltsev believes Al-Shayrat would need four to five S-400 battalions, alongside a radar reconnaissance system to provide depth of detection against cruise missiles, in addition to an air regiment of Su-30SM or Su-35 fighters (Gazeta.ru, April 7).

Some of the technical aspects of the strike on Al-Shayrat were assessed by Nikolai Novichkov, in Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer. Novichkov concurs with air defense specialists such as Khodarenok and Maltsev that the S-400 and S-300V4 is effective to around 40 km against cruise missile targets, but he examines details surrounding the US strike to extrapolate lessons for the Russian military. Novichkov refers to the timing of the attack, considering whether the strikes were synchronized between USS Porter and USS Ross; he concludes they probably were (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, April 10).

Noting the Russian defense ministry version, which places the attack between 03:42 (Moscow time) and 03:56, the author argues nearly 30 pairs of Tomahawks were fired almost simultaneously. The time interval from the lead pair to the final pair was about seven minutes, giving a total time interval of 14 minutes. Fired from south of Crete, in the Mediterranean Sea, at a distance of 1,100 km from the Syrian coast, Russian air defense could not have detected the launches. Novichkov highlights the use of EW-18G Growler aircraft to provide electronic warfare (EW) cover for the attack, and suggests the cruise missiles could have crossed the Syrian coast close to Tartus, allowing some degree of tracking. This would provide the Russian military with a real world lesson in anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) in Syria, which can be applied elsewhere (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, April 10).

The US cruise missile strike on Al-Shayrat did not expose the Russian air defense systems to be flawed. On the contrary, US planners are well aware of the characteristics of these systems and took careful steps to circumvent them. The strikes were conducted at sufficient distance from the Syrian coast, and likely flew far enough south of Tartus to avoid Russian air defense assets, or through Lebanese airspace before entering Syria and were also supported by EW (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, April 10; Gazeta.ru, April 7).

In reality, the Russian air defense bubble never extended across Syria, but instead may be accurately denoted as a series of smaller “bubbles,” which the US Navy precisely circumvented in the attack. Creating a national air defense “no-fly zone” for Syria is doubtless seen by Moscow as far too costly and potentially dangerous.

Emphasis added...

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 05:40 AM

From Roger McDermott at the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-air-defense-us-strike-al-shayrat/

Emphasis added...

If you had been tracking the Russian AD coverage that I posted here many of the points were already well known just after the attack......

If you had read the CrowBat posts as well over the past year both S300s/400s are not a serious threat even to non TLAMs....which Russia has been trying to avoid talking about.....

BUT here is the interesting single point....at all weapons trade fairs over the past year..check the Russian materials being handed out.....

They emphasize the fact that both systems have a anti cruise missile capacity...question will be now can they hold those previous statements when potential buyers point out that fact????

Secondly, the EW use of Growlers formerly Prowlers is a well documented simple fact that even the Russians should have taken into account when setting up their AD bubbles....

NOW go to the Ukrainian thread and di out the comments of the Russian A2AD bubbles being built against NATO.....where they claim they cannot be broken through on ...you must then seriously question whether they are simply bluffing or outright lying......

In the Cold War days the Soviets literally built SA6/8 "belts" that had to be broken through by SEAD aircraft where the US calculated heavy loses during the 1st/2nd SEAD waves before the belts were broken....

NOW the Russians are talking about S500s......

Here is an interesting fact...if the cruise missile detection and engagement bubble is only 30/40kms what happens if the aircraft suddenly are Tornado's are Growlers using HARM type missiles travelling low and slow?

Remember this package was used often in VN with Prowlers armed with HARM type missiles leading the attack waves....usually followed by F4s...the high SAM shot down rates over VN was due to simply barrage firing of SAMs which in Syria the S300/400s cannot sustain....

Find it interesting though that the Russians signal their weaknesses in public and hopefully are trying to coverup their basic failure in detection and non downing of anything fired that morning...

Find it also interesting that they keep repeating on 23 hit anything when US ISR clearly tracked from start to finish 58...with one going down along the way...and one misfire....

What they did indicate as a major naval weakness inadvertently was the fact that they cannot fire their missiles either in pairs and or in combination with other ships simultaneously....or in the US case as a broadside like in the cannon days.... then go immediately into a complete reload at sea mode...

This is something the Russians cannot do....

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 06:25 AM

Largely unconfirmed but many are trying to get CCN Turk to confirm this was said by Trump to Erdogan as it was being reported as such by CNN Turk EN.....could just be Erdogan's PR machine hard at work....CNN Turk largely silent on this as of this morning.

Trump to Erdogan: I don't like checks and balances on my power. Congratulations on radically curtailing them on yours.

BUT again Trump has extensive Turkish business holdings and it is quiet possible this was stated....

In 2015, Trump told Bannon: "I have a little conflict of interest b/c I have a major, major building in Istanbul" >>
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/donald-trump-i-have-little-conflict-interest-turkey#

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 06:32 AM

NEWS
The #Kremlin regime killed up to 10 "beautiful babies" in nighttime air strikes on Ma'aret Hurmah (Idlib) & Urem Al-Kubra (Aleppo).

Trump's own words to justify his "Wag the Dog TLAM moment"...the US MSM has such a short memory....

Trump's Syrian FP is exactly that...nothing actually other than TLAM barrage and then total silence as he moved his "Wag the Dog" onto NK and AFG......

At least Obama WH could handle multiple events on a global scale...

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 06:35 AM

BRUTAL social media open source analysis of the US so called AQ/IS mosque air strike that killed strictly civilians....

.@ForensicArchi @hrw @bellingcat Human Rights Watch found no evidence that the mosque struck by US drones was being used for al Qaeda meeting:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/04/18/syria-us-mosque-attack-likely-unlawful#

Basically calling this US strike a war crime against civilians and in total violation of IHL.....

REMEMBER CENTCOM claimed they would investigate this strike...BUT all that has come from CENTCOM is utter silence on the strike...

The attack on the mosque in opposition held Al Jinah in Aleppo province #Syria on March 16 reportedly killed 38 people including 5 children

@Bellingcat contribution includes details of Tablighi Jamaat, Sunni missionary movement which ran mosque classes
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/04/18/al-jinah-new-info-and-timeline/#

@ForensicArchi uses 3D modeling, architects' drawings, witness statements & munitions analysis to show mosque hit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOyihqEOfYA#

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 06:40 AM

Two weeks ago, #KhanSheikhoun was hit by #Assad's gas & the world screamed.

AND Trump had his "Wag the Dog moment" as a man of action.....but since then?????

ALL THIS hit the same area TODAY & no one even talked about it.

A lot of these Russian/Assad strikes used incendiary cluster munitions and thermobaric bombs BOTH in direct violation of IHL....

AND the Trump Syria FP reaction was what ...............silence as he is busy in NK and dropping MOABs...

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 06:42 AM

"@UOSSM Hospital Treats 114 People From Convoy Attack In Al Rashideen"

So much for the "terrorist relief organisations" ..BOTH Assad and Russia talked about.

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 06:52 AM

СИРИЯ Российские саперы при разминировании Пальмиры используют робототехнические комплексы «Скарабей» и «Сфера»

http://s.mil.ru/2oH4u0i

SYRIA Russian military engineers are using Scarabey and Sfera newest robotic complexes while demining #Palmyra
http://s.mil.ru/2oHfMlw

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 06:59 AM

Trump's favorite US Democratic Congresswomen.......someone he is rumored to want on his NSC now...

Tulsi Gabbard was paid by Syrian intel SSNP to travel to Syria. SSNP are the Nr 1 political assassins in the Levant

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/26/democratic-congresswoman-used-affiliates-of-a-violent-anti-semitic-political-party-to-take-tea-with-assad.html#

Azor

04-18-2017, 07:16 AM

If you had been tracking the Russian AD coverage that I posted here many of the points were already well known just after the attack......

If you had read the CrowBat posts as well over the past year both S300s/400s are not a serious threat even to non TLAMs....which Russia has been trying to avoid talking about.....

BUT here is the interesting single point....at all weapons trade fairs over the past year..check the Russian materials being handed out.....

They emphasize the fact that both systems have a anti cruise missile capacity...question will be now can they hold those previous statements when potential buyers point out that fact????

Secondly, the EW use of Growlers formerly Prowlers is a well documented simple fact that even the Russians should have taken into account when setting up their AD bubbles....

NOW go to the Ukrainian thread and di out the comments of the Russian A2AD bubbles being built against NATO.....where they claim they cannot be broken through on ...you must then seriously question whether they are simply bluffing or outright lying......

In the Cold War days the Soviets literally built SA6/8 "belts" that had to be broken through by SEAD aircraft where the US calculated heavy loses during the 1st/2nd SEAD waves before the belts were broken....

NOW the Russians are talking about S500s......

Here is an interesting fact...if the cruise missile detection and engagement bubble is only 30/40kms what happens if the aircraft suddenly are Tornado's are Growlers using HARM type missiles travelling low and slow?

Remember this package was used often in VN with Prowlers armed with HARM type missiles leading the attack waves....usually followed by F4s...the high SAM shot down rates over VN was due to simply barrage firing of SAMs which in Syria the S300/400s cannot sustain....

Find it interesting though that the Russians signal their weaknesses in public and hopefully are trying to coverup their basic failure in detection and non downing of anything fired that morning...

Find it also interesting that they keep repeating on 23 hit anything when US ISR clearly tracked from start to finish 58...with one going down along the way...and one misfire....

What they did indicate as a major naval weakness inadvertently was the fact that they cannot fire their missiles either in pairs and or in combination with other ships simultaneously....or in the US case as a broadside like in the cannon days.... then go immediately into a complete reload at sea mode...

This is something the Russians cannot do....

McDermott is an expert on the Russian military and wrote the book on the South Ossetia War, which is how I began following him.

Some of what he wrote was a reiteration of what we already know or have deduced.

However, he has made good points about the Russians' admission that they have trouble detecting and targeting subsonic low-flying maneuverable cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk.

You will recall that there is grave concern over the efficacy of US cruise missiles, prompting development of the LRSO, etc. A number of analysts are concerned that US missiles are too slow, but it seems that stealth and maneuverability are actually better.

In addition, McDermott has noted that Russia has no A2/AD zones, but rather small bubbles.

Basically, as CrowBat would agree, the fears over Russian and Chinese SAMs are overblown both qualitatively and clearly quantitatively i.e. no more Cold War era dense belts...

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 07:31 AM

I seriously doubt many even know this study exists..when we address both Shia and Sunni aspects of Islam....studies as this are critical....

https://www.ctc.usma.edu/v2/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Islamic-Imagery-P...

The Islamic Imagery Project
March 1, 2006
Author(s): Combating Terrorism Center

The study of Islamic imagery has been the exclusive domain of art historians and museum curators, with pre-modern art being the central area of interest. Thus, there is a palpable lack of information on modern imagery associated with political Islam, especially imagery that is produced by radical, and often violent, Muslim groups. Nowhere is the dearth of critical research more apparent than in the study of jihadi organizations. These organizations have had a brief but prolific history in the production and distribution of visual propaganda and have arguably created their own distinct genre of Internet-based Islamic imagery. While the tragic events of September 11 highlighted the importance of understanding the ideology and methods of jihadi groups, the process of achieving this understanding is still at the early stages, and the remaining areas of ignorance are profound.
The current study on jihadi imagery, the first of its kind, is an important step in this process. Herein, visual propaganda is considered to be more than just a host for textual messages; rather, it is treated as an expressive medium unto itself—one which communicates ideas just as effectively, and sometimes as explicitly as the written word. We regard jihadi imagery to be a primary vehicle for the communication and diffusion of jihadi ideas, and an essential tool utilized by radical ideologues, terrorist organizations, and sympathetic propagandists, which plays to the particular religious and cultural experiences of their audience. Therefore, understanding how these images work, what ideas they convey, why they are employed, and what responses they may elicit is vital to our struggle against the influence of jihadi organizations and the violence they create.

They have been communicating with us for years..we just have not understood their visual language.

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 07:40 AM

McDermott is an expert on the Russian military and wrote the book on the South Ossetia War, which is how I began following him.

Some of what he wrote was a reiteration of what we already know or have deduced.

However, he has made good points about the Russians' admission that they have trouble detecting and targeting subsonic low-flying maneuverable cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk.

You will recall that there is grave concern over the efficacy of US cruise missiles, prompting development of the LRSO, etc. A number of analysts are concerned that US missiles are too slow, but it seems that stealth and maneuverability are actually better.

In addition, McDermott has noted that Russia has no A2/AD zones, but rather small bubbles.

Basically, as CrowBat would agree, the fears over Russian and Chinese SAMs are overblown both qualitatively and clearly quantitatively i.e. no more Cold War era dense belts...

You cannot shot down what you cannot "see" and or "hit"....speed is not everything....

A number of analysts are concerned that US missiles are too slow, but it seems that stealth and maneuverability are actually better.

BUT what was missed in the Russian lying about number of hits was the accuracy of the 58 hits....and there are now some US sources saying the targeting of several inbound TLAMs was changed and or flights were corrected on the fly indicating just how far the US has come in the integration of missile GPS and satellites in " near real time" as there is a drag time of 3 seconds on the signal delay side....and in 3 seconds a missile travesl how far?

REMEMBER when the Russians fired their very first volley of their own cruise missiles from the Black Sea...video footage showed them flying somewhere over Iran and then targeting somewhere inside Iran and or simply crashing along the way...

Was designed to impress the US but largely failed in that attempt to impress anyone including the rebels....

Russian MoD can come nowhere close to this in any of the latest systems.....

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 11:57 AM

Damascus: Rebels shelling pro-#Assad forces at the #Irbeen frontline in Eastern #Damascus with an Omar cannon today.

Because the victims were taken to Turkey for treatment, funny @mod_russia doesn't know that
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704181052737831-idlib-chemical-attack-khan-shaykhun-fake/#

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 12:01 PM

SO the USAF and the US Army will then be using Russian made fuels....in AFG...Iraq and Syria......WHAT happens if Russia does not deliver fuels to DoD?????

"Rosneft is poised to become one of the biggest foreign owners of American oil refining capacity"
https://news.vice.com/story/russia-oil-rosneft-infrastructure#

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 12:10 PM

Putin is lashing out at anything looking like a rebel town and or village in Syria right now....

Russia dumping it's military budgets in Syria, dozens airstrikes today from South to North.

With no military sense

OTHER than punishing the Sunni civilian population for supporting FSA/HTS and company.....

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 12:16 PM

NOW we know the Trump Syrian FP and it is hard at work providing CAS for Assad....Iran...and the Russians....BUT not for FSA/HTS involved also in heavy fighting against BOTH IS and Assad.....

And again, #Trump bombed #ISIS for #Assad, #Iran & #Hezbollah ...

* Near Palmyra, two strikes destroyed two ISIS tunnels and an ISIS shed.

The #Kremlin regime again uses its high tech Su-35 to attack the free parts of the city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCMfonoPcbE#

Also #Daraa city is under heavy #Russian bombardment right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4BR4DH9xf8#…

#Hama province shortly ago.
#Putin's Su-25 bombing towns and villages near the front.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CWdIPYChA0#…

REMEMBER Trump vowed "to eradicate IS from the face of the earth"...so at least you would think he would support those Syrians actively fighting IS....

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 12:20 PM

The #Kremlin regime child killers are out in masses today, bombing cities N-W of #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzeQX_raSl8#…

UK MSM is spreading fakes news as do the Russians and Assad it seems...
Dear @Daily_Star desk,
there has NEVER been an #ISIS presence in #Lataminah.
Next ISIS area is 70km away.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/606284/Russia-bomb-attack-Syria-Hama-video-footage-war-ISIS-clip-jihadi#…

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 04:59 PM

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 05:04 PM

It was an SU22 that dropped sarin......and was suppose to be the targets of Trump's TLAMs.....

Assad's Su-22, bombing the #Damascus suburb #Qaboun this afternoon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yN-Fn6scio#…

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 05:16 PM

Hama Battle: #HTS T-72 seized by pro-Regime forces in #Souran. Visibly damaged by collapse of a building.

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 05:19 PM

E. #Damascus: Regime up-armoured T-72s experiencing urban warfare in #Qabun. Two taken out and one damaged past ~48 hours

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 05:23 PM

Clashes between #Assad forces and rebels near of Rashdin neighbourhood and Shwehna Mountain N & W #Aleppo.

This is by a former Obama admin official who worked with the NSC types now so voluble on Twitter:
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/syria-thinking-strategically#

OUTLAW 09

04-18-2017, 05:37 PM

State Department raises torture in Syrian military hospitals in latest Syria report. Here is what survivors told us:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/middle_east/the-hospitals-were-slaughterhouses-a-journey-intosyrias-secret-torture-wards/2017/04/02/90ccaa6e-0d61-11e7-b2bb-417e331877d9_story.html#

Azor

04-18-2017, 06:16 PM

IMPORTANT...not confirmed

According to the #FSA, this TOW attack near #Khattab killed 2 Russian soldiers.
Unconfirmed of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hepw1P4yEbY&feature=youtu.be#…

Hama Battle: Central Division #TOW strike vs group of pro-Assad near #Khattab, claiming several KIA incl. #Russia|n officers.

I saw a video from Deir-e-Zor, where there were at least two Russian soldiers, including a wounded one, as well as a Russian medic. R&U films channel on YouTube...

Azor

04-18-2017, 06:25 PM

You cannot shot down what you cannot "see" and or "hit"...speed is not everything...

Yes, but analysts relying on OSINT are worried about being overtaken by faster Russian and Chinese cruise missiles. My thinking was that the U.S. has prized range and maneuverability (and now stealth) over speed, despite the threats posed by advanced Russian and Chinese SAMs and EM warfare systems.

BUT what was missed in the Russian lying about number of hits was the accuracy of the 58 hits...and there are now some US sources saying the targeting of several inbound TLAMs was changed and or flights were corrected on the fly indicating just how far the US has come in the integration of missile GPS and satellites in " near real time" as there is a drag time of 3 seconds on the signal delay side...and in 3 seconds a missile travels how far?

McDermott notes the Russian propaganda focus on the alleged TLAM misses, rather than questions over the efficacy of their own IADS in Syria. Such real-time re-targeting is incredible for such missions as the strike on Shayrat. Unfortunately, we must assume that peer and near-peer adversaries can disrupt or even block satellite-based communications. Therefore, the TLAM becomes a fire-and-forget weapon and what happens when it does actually enter the admittedly small A2/AD bubble?

REMEMBER when the Russians fired their very first volley of their own cruise missiles from the Black Sea...video footage showed them flying somewhere over Iran and then targeting somewhere inside Iran and or simply crashing along the way...Was designed to impress the US but largely failed in that attempt to impress anyone including the rebels...Russian MoD can come nowhere close to this in any of the latest systems....

Russia’s air campaign in Syria is a very poor man’s Desert Storm. However unimpressive, it has still given the Russian military valuable experience and the MOD has sought to expose as many units as possible to this live-fire exercise.