Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[CrowBat]

Just a note regarding CNN's report about Assadists moving their aircraft to the Russian Air Base (http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/politics/syria-warplanes-russia-base/): this is complete nonsense, but then so typical for the Pentagon when it comes to Syria.

Pay attention (excerpt from that and other of similar CNN's reports):


The movement of the aircraft to the air base at Bassel Al-Assad International Airport began shortly after the US's April 6 Tomahawk cruise missile strike on Sharat air base, which destroyed some 24 Syrian warplanes in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack that the US says Syria launched from that airfield.

The move places the Syrian aircraft in close proximity to Russia's Khmeimim Air Base -- where the majority of Russian air forces helping ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime are based -- in Latakia Governorate, Syria.
...

Basel al-Assad International is the SAME like Hmemmem AB. One is the civilian-, the other is the military designation for the SAME air base. They are not 'in close proximity', but the same.

Therefore, anybody babbling in this style, has not even taken a look at the map of Syria.

But then, that's typical 'Pentagon-created' BS. People generally think that all the US intel agencies think the same way. They do not. There are different people, with their own, different mindsets and interests at the top of each intelligence service. Plus, each of intelligence service is actually responsible to a different set of political masters. Each of mindsets in question is producing reporting coloured by its own interests.

In the case of Syria, there are two primary sets of thinking in the USA - and thus two primary sets of politics:

a) DIA (Defence Intelligence Agency) + Pentagon; this way of thinking is dominating the US politics regarding Syria since 2012. Propagators of this this way of thinking cannot stop providing clear evidence that they are piss-poor informed about Syria - regardless if it's about the Syrian military or whatever else (though excelling at cooperating with Marxist terrorist groups, like the PKK). These are the same people that have intentionally published such idiotic reports like those that the al-Qaida is at least co-responsible for protesting of 2011, i.e. that the revolution is de-facto an uprising of extremist islamists.

b) CIA + State Department (the latter is the foreign ministry of the USA); this one knows what is really going on in Syria, but next to nobody is listening to it.

Add to this the fact that Hmemmem is since August 2015 - and for all legal and practical purposes - a Russian, and not a Syrian air base. And that it lacks the space to receive something like, say, 10-15 SyAAF aircraft...

So, when I now hear the CNN babbling things like, 'sources in the Pentagon said...' - sorry, I want to see evidence first. Even more so because I know very well how many of 'sources in the Pentagon' are regularly using social media to 'obtain information' (rather sad for people in their position). They never had really good insights in Syria, they never had any kind of useful HUMINT, and this is now showing in CNN's reporting too.

Ah yes... and for those that might have their 'doubts' about quality of information upon which this 'opinion' of mine is based, here links to my summaries on registered flying activity by the Russians and Assadists over Syria in the last month:

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 20 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-20-april-2017-23e6dfbc21c)

...

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 17 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-17-april-2017-77799c789865)

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 16 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-16-april-2017-9388b4369143)

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 15 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-15-april-2017-db50739a593d)

Air Strikes by VKS (few by SyAAF), 14 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-few-by-syaaf-14-april-2017-9cc546b39f2f)

Air Strikes by VKS (few by SyAAF), 13 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-few-by-syaaf-13-april-2017-4f62134ad5e1)

...

Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 7 April, UPDATE (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-7-april-2017-update-e5c2c63a394f)

...

Collection of Links on Air Warfare by Syrian Arab Air Force and Russian AirSpace Force in#Syria (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/collection-of-links-on-air-warfare-by-syrian-arab-air-force-and-russian-airspace-force-in-syria-ddd8b43e8606)

etc., etc., etc....

Whoever thinks the Pentagon (and the CNN) is right, please feel free to correct me - preferably with help of evidence for any of SyAAF aircraft being 'moved to proxmity of the Russian air base at Basel al-Assad Airport'... :rolleyes:

[CrowBat]

The latest update for Truppendienst's coverage of the developments in Syria is now available as Der Syrische Brgerkrieg - Update 19 04 2017 (https://www.truppendienst.com/themen/beitraege/artikel/der-syrische-buergerkrieg-update-19-04-2017/). It is summarizing the developments since mid-February this year.

Also available is the new 'order of battle' for all insurgent groups in Syria, plus the HTS (https://www.truppendienst.com/fileadmin/user_upload/Einzelbeitraege/2016/Syrien/19_04_17_Update/Aufstaendische_Syrien.pdf) (<== PDF file). This is of particular importance considering the spate of rifts, defections, and establishments of new alliances in Idlib and western Aleppo governorates of the last two months.

[OUTLAW 09]

Just a note regarding CNN's report about Assadists moving their aircraft to the Russian Air Base (http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/politics/syria-warplanes-russia-base/): this is complete nonsense, but then so typical for the Pentagon when it comes to Syria.

Pay attention (excerpt from that and other of similar CNN's reports):



Basel al-Assad International is the SAME like Hmemmem AB. One is the civilian-, the other is the military designation for the SAME air base. They are not 'in close proximity', but the same.

Therefore, anybody babbling in this style, has not even taken a look at the map of Syria.

But then, that's typical 'Pentagon-created' BS. People generally think that all the US intel agencies think the same way. They do not. There are different people, with their own, different mindsets and interests at the top of each intelligence service. Plus, each of intelligence service is actually responsible to a different set of political masters. Each of mindsets in question is producing reporting coloured by its own interests.

In the case of Syria, there are two primary sets of thinking in the USA - and thus two primary sets of politics:

a) DIA (Defence Intelligence Agency) + Pentagon; this way of thinking is dominating the US politics regarding Syria since 2012. Propagators of this this way of thinking cannot stop providing clear evidence that they are piss-poor informed about Syria - regardless if it's about the Syrian military or whatever else (though excelling at cooperating with Marxist terrorist groups, like the PKK). These are the same people that have intentionally published such idiotic reports like those that the al-Qaida is at least co-responsible for protesting of 2011, i.e. that the revolution is de-facto an uprising of extremist islamists.

b) CIA + State Department (the latter is the foreign ministry of the USA); this one knows what is really going on in Syria, but next to nobody is listening to it.

Add to this the fact that Hmemmem is since August 2015 - and for all legal and practical purposes - a Russian, and not a Syrian air base. And that it lacks the space to receive something like, say, 10-15 SyAAF aircraft...

So, when I now hear the CNN babbling things like, 'sources in the Pentagon said...' - sorry, I want to see evidence first. Even more so because I know very well how many of 'sources in the Pentagon' are regularly using social media to 'obtain information' (rather sad for people in their position). They never had really good insights in Syria, they never had any kind of useful HUMINT, and this is now showing in CNN's reporting too.

Ah yes... and for those that might have their 'doubts' about quality of information upon which this 'opinion' of mine is based, here links to my summaries on registered flying activity by the Russians and Assadists over Syria in the last month:

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 20 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-20-april-2017-23e6dfbc21c)

...

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 17 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-17-april-2017-77799c789865)

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 16 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-16-april-2017-9388b4369143)

Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 15 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-15-april-2017-db50739a593d)

Air Strikes by VKS (few by SyAAF), 14 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-few-by-syaaf-14-april-2017-9cc546b39f2f)

Air Strikes by VKS (few by SyAAF), 13 April (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-few-by-syaaf-13-april-2017-4f62134ad5e1)

...

Air Strikes by SyAAF and VKS, 7 April, UPDATE (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-syaaf-and-vks-7-april-2017-update-e5c2c63a394f)

...

Collection of Links on Air Warfare by Syrian Arab Air Force and Russian AirSpace Force in#Syria (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/collection-of-links-on-air-warfare-by-syrian-arab-air-force-and-russian-airspace-force-in-syria-ddd8b43e8606)

etc., etc., etc....

Whoever thinks the Pentagon (and the CNN) is right, please feel free to correct me - preferably with help of evidence for any of SyAAF aircraft being 'moved to proxmity of the Russian air base at Basel al-Assad Airport'... :rolleyes:

Mattis confirms Syrian aircraft "dispersed" in recent days - reports that many relocated to Hmeimim base in Latakia:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-still-has-chemical-weapons-says-us-defense-secretary/2017/04/21/2fc71740-267a-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?utm_term=.be27238935bd#

[CrowBat]

Mattis confirms Syrian aircraft "dispersed" in recent days - reports that many relocated to Hmeimim base in Latakia:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-still-has-chemical-weapons-says-us-defense-secretary/2017/04/21/2fc71740-267a-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?utm_term=.be27238935bd#
Simply no clue what is he talking about: there's no trace of evidence for such statements.

Even if, say, everybody there reporting all the flying activity is blind and can't recognize an Su-22 from an Il-76 even by their noise... the activity from Hmemmem AB didn't increase by such a margin as that one could say, 'yes, the Syrians moved their aircraft to Hmemmem AB'.

And versa-vice: the activity at all other Assadist air bases didn't decrease - at least not without a good reason (like the US strike on Shayrat, or the insurgent rocketing of Hama, on 17 April) as that one could say, 'hey, plenty of aircraft are missing in this place'.

So, 'photos, Mr. Mattis - or explain why are you making such statements'.

EDIT: haven't got a link, but even the MOD in Damascus meanwhile denied such reports.

[OUTLAW 09]

WOW...who would have thought the Russians being in Syria would not fight IS.....

That is really one whale of a tale......BUT WAIT....Russian and Syrians tend to spell IS....FSA....

Syria's Assad says that Russian troops will not be fighting ISIS
http://read.bi/2pMkRvF/urln

[OUTLAW 09]

To all readers of this thread….


I have been reading SWJ since 2004 when I first became aware of it…and I have since then contributed a few articles to it as well as FP…

But since the Russian military annexation of Crimea…their unleashing of non linear warfare with cyber and information warfare as it’s core and then their military invasion of Ukraine and their adventure into Syria in the name to defeat IS which we all know is a farce……

During the last two years I have posted roughly 30,000 posts on these two areas and then starting posting more and more information on Russian infor and cyber warfare.

Alone on the Ukrainian thread Views have in the last two years climbed to over 980,000 …the Syrian thread climbed in the same time to over 360,000. I also noted that in the last two months the Russian disinformation and hacking has climbed over 8,000 Views.

While it is hard to see if readers were looking/researching or just skimming through I am happy that they “viewed” anything as I have seen that basically a lot of what I posted never did make it into US MSM or if it did…then days later.

During this process I have learned the value of social media OSINT and the ability of conducting excellent information warfare using social media….and took pains to show how Russian info warfare was being conducted both in Ukraine and Syria….and developed along the way a working relationship with @bellingcat one of the best social media OSINT types going these days..actually produces better quality open reporting than anything I have previously seen in the IC which also uses OSINT...

Along the way I have bashed the Obama WH for basically changing the entire ME in the desire to tilt fully to Iran and for their apparent lack of a solid strategic strategy on virtually anything…and they walked away from engaging in the Ukraine…..the Obama WH was great smoke and mirrors machine and the US MSM never really challenged that…

We then transitioned to the Trump WH….and suddenly and truly we are seeing for the first time the somehat serious political theory of “Wag the Dog” in it’s full glory being applied to cover up for a total lack of any strategy on anything other than “tweets” being used as a FP……using "on a whim and a prayer" as FP....

I learned a long time ago after VN if one does not ever speak truth to power things get worse….and in my work career that was a principle I held to which cost me sometimes, but I always learned even then you in fact move forward…because some along the way respected that.

The posting has led me to fully “see” and “understand” the intertwining of a lack of US FP built on well thought through strategies and allowed me to see at the same the interesting development of the Russian non linear warfare which is pushing their political war with the US….and they do view it as an actual war…somehow we do not…

BTW I have posted many comments on this concept of “seeing” and “understanding” something that drives me in all these years as I learned long ago ground reality “does talk to you..if you are willing to listen”….

After being recently chastised and sidelined for three days “for being on a soap box” that not many were willing to actually share…..even though reading and then responding by cut and pasting comments….I have decided it is now a good time to withdraw from SWC…it has been a great ride , the knowledge I gained in the postings has flowed into my company in a far different way than I even imagined and is openly up a startling new realm in integrating hacking defense with customers demanding now how to counter the everyday info war they are in….

It has been one heck of a long ride and I really enjoyed it…will comment on occasions if an article interests me…….

The killing in eastern Ukraine and Syria will just continue until someone stands up in the US and truly leads….and leads not by tweets….but by the realization of what Putin’s geo political goals really are guided by a strategic strategy...finally.....

Based on evidence I have had the opportunity to be shown/review the person tweeting might not be in office much longer IF treason counts for anything these days in the US…

Hopefully CrowBat will continue his postings...

[OUTLAW 09]

Final posting...always remember if it is the last thing learned from this thread....Assad...IS...Iran and Putin are all linked together and since 2006.......and Obama and Trump have gotten it totally wrong when both state Syria is not important in the grand scheme of American FP....it was always central to the ME....

Kyle Orton‏
Verified account
@KyleWOrton
Follow
From DEC:
https://goo.gl/bVJSuJ#

Among reasons IS is entrenched in Deir Ezzor: based there when Assad used IS against us in Iraq.

This particular writer has pointed this out repeatedly as have three other writers in countless articles on this topic that somehow never made it into both the Obama WH AND now the Trump WH...meaning his twitter account...

[Azor]

To all readers of this thread….


I have been reading SWJ since 2004 when I first became aware of it…and I have since then contributed a few articles to it as well as FP…

But since the Russian military annexation of Crimea…their unleashing of non linear warfare with cyber and information warfare as it’s core and then their military invasion of Ukraine and their adventure into Syria in the name to defeat IS which we all know is a farce……

During the last two years I have posted roughly 30,000 posts on these two areas and then starting posting more and more information on Russian infor and cyber warfare.

Alone on the Ukrainian thread Views have in the last two years climbed to over 980,000 …the Syrian thread climbed in the same time to over 360,000. I also noted that in the last two months the Russian disinformation and hacking has climbed over 8,000 Views.

While it is hard to see if readers were looking/researching or just skimming through I am happy that they “viewed” anything as I have seen that basically a lot of what I posted never did make it into US MSM or if it did…then days later.

During this process I have learned the value of social media OSINT and the ability of conducting excellent information warfare using social media….and took pains to show how Russian info warfare was being conducted both in Ukraine and Syria….and developed along the way a working relationship with @bellingcat one of the best social media OSINT types going these days..actually produces better quality open reporting than anything I have previously seen in the IC which also uses OSINT...

Along the way I have bashed the Obama WH for basically changing the entire ME in the desire to tilt fully to Iran and for their apparent lack of a solid strategic strategy on virtually anything…and they walked away from engaging in the Ukraine…..the Obama WH was great smoke and mirrors machine and the US MSM never really challenged that…

We then transitioned to the Trump WH….and suddenly and truly we are seeing for the first time the somehat serious political theory of “Wag the Dog” in it’s full glory being applied to cover up for a total lack of any strategy on anything other than “tweets” being used as a FP……using "on a whim and a prayer" as FP....

I learned a long time ago after VN if one does not ever speak truth to power things get worse….and in my work career that was a principle I held to which cost me sometimes, but I always learned even then you in fact move forward…because some along the way respected that.

The posting has led me to fully “see” and “understand” the intertwining of a lack of US FP built on well thought through strategies and allowed me to see at the same the interesting development of the Russian non linear warfare which is pushing their political war with the US….and they do view it as an actual war…somehow we do not…

BTW I have posted many comments on this concept of “seeing” and “understanding” something that drives me in all these years as I learned long ago ground reality “does talk to you..if you are willing to listen”….

After being recently chastised and sidelined for three days “for being on a soap box” that not many were willing to actually share…..even though reading and then responding by cut and pasting comments….I have decided it is now a good time to withdraw from SWC…it has been a great ride , the knowledge I gained in the postings has flowed into my company in a far different way than I even imagined and is openly up a startling new realm in integrating hacking defense with customers demanding now how to counter the everyday info war they are in….

It has been one heck of a long ride and I really enjoyed it…will comment on occasions if an article interests me…….

The killing in eastern Ukraine and Syria will just continue until someone stands up in the US and truly leads….and leads not by tweets….but by the realization of what Putin’s geo political goals really are guided by a strategic strategy...finally.....

Based on evidence I have had the opportunity to be shown/review the person tweeting might not be in office much longer IF treason counts for anything these days in the US…

Hopefully CrowBat will continue his postings...

Outlaw,
#
I am sorry that you feel this way.# You have certainly helped keep everyone at SWC up to date on the daily goings on in Ukraine and Syria, even when mainstream Western media and audiences grew disinterested.# Your prolific posting is noted and appreciated, even if SWC can appear to be a one-man forum at times. #Certainly, your use of social media OSINT has been effective during periods of intensity, when the MSM is unsure of what is actually occurring on the ground. #
#
Yet not all contact is a skirmish and not all skirmishes are battles and not all battles are strategic or decisive.# Ukrainian soldiers will step on mines and be hit with sniper fire without impacting the broader conflict.# Some TOWs will take out a squad of Hezbollah sheltering behind an earthwork, and others will merely injure a couple of Assad's conscripts. #

You certainly have a passion for countering Russian propaganda and encouraging the U.S. to engage more in Ukraine and Syria. #

Yet Russia is not the only beast in the woods, there are charnel houses just as bad if not worse than Syria in the D.R. Congo and Burundi, and the Russo-Ukrainian War is a mere blip compared to most ongoing wars as well as the Balkans, Europe's last war. #

Nor is perspective indifference. With that in mind, I would say that none of the active members of SWC could do much to impact Obama's foreign policy and the same is true for Trump. #



While you served in Vietnam, political decisions were being made that would sabotage any chance of an independent South Vietnamese state. At the same time, genocide was underway in Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and would be exported to Cambodia. In Iraq, the U.S. alienated the Sunni Arabs, then co-opted them and then alienated them again, leading to civil war, the rise of Daesh and Iranian hegemony. #‎

Suffice it to say, there are things you can control and things you can't. Despite his antipathy for Trump, CrowBat took what he could get when the TLAMs struck Shayrat. To date, the FSA is still in the field and still using TOWs, and Russian tanks have not had a go at Kharkiv or Mariupol. #

If there is any issue, it is that SWC shouldn't be one of millions of forums for U.S. domestic politics or how Farage, Le Pen and Trump are all GRU agents sent to bring down NATO and the EU. #‎The election campaign has not stopped with the inauguration and it is tranquil to have a place where SMEs discuss wars.



I'm sorry you don't appreciate my cutting and pasting of your quotes: I do it for brevity and to respond to specific points only. #



We will miss your up-to-the-minute updates from the various fronts if perhaps less your anti-Trump and humanitarian interventionist op-eds. # For what it's worth, I preferred hearing about the major battles from you rather than the MSM. Just because the MSM appears to agree with you now does not mean that it won't move on in a few months; after all, it cares little for conflicts that are not part of domestic politics...

Regards,

Azor‎

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...actually you response deserves this one last response......

If you really are able to "see and understand" using my form of looking at the world from a ground reality....what we see today with the US political side and the sad performance of US MSM media even today actually which since the second election campaign of Bush and the Viacom takeover of say CBS...we are seeing the ultimate form of "corporate news"....and the dying of "true journalism as a profession"....

Go back and review the airing of the CBS 60 Minutes by Dan Reuther on the Air National Guard days of Bush which cost Reuther his job and the firing of the team on that segment....even though now we know the facts were accurate and correct.

Then look at the "Swift Boat" affair thrown at Kerry....which in reality was the really first "fakes news hit job" made in full public view and MSM did not even see it coming did it? instead they all piled on....

What I miss from a lot of commenters is in the inherent understanding of the intertwining of external FP....internal politics..... and ground reality....

Disinformation..propaganda...and fakes news though has undergone a major shift and has become a very hard "soft power" used by the Russians very effectively and still is against the US...and anyone that does not see that seriously heads their heads examined...

Example...MSM has been bashing Trump then he fires a "Wag the Dog" set of TLAMS and suddenly the same MSM that was bashing him praise him....."suddenly forgetting he is under suspicion of "collusion" to put it in FBI speak"...and just maybe the attack is a deflection...WHICH some are now starting to in fact say....

ALTHOUGH I have been posting the brutality of the Syrian war in full color for over two years...and where was MSM...nowhere to be seen....

If Americans do not fully understand the interconnectedness of this very small planet made possible by the internet and technology....they are in serous trouble as the world is getting far more complex...hourly not the previous weeks it might take under the older forms of communications.

How long did the debate on say even SWC go as it "is Syria even a strategic interest for the US when the answer was smack in your face and that daily as we see.....because now to resolve the entire ME set of issues the US must truly now resolve Syria..and that is strategic.....

Until Americans wake up and realize that there has truly never been a sitting President in the first 100 days come under FBI/CIA/NSA and seven European intel service investigations for "collusion"....the first word used in a treason case by the FBI..go back and check the terms used during the 50s treason cases..

You cannot now separate that from the ongoing total failure of any and I am serious anything that remotely looks like US FP.......

You can see that in the German reporting now coming out about the Us Merkel visit....

Trump asked her 11 times can the US do a trade deal with Germany...her response to him 11 times..."you cannot do it with us you must deal with the EU trade commission as it represents all EU members as a block...Trump then we will do it with the EU"..which he has constantly bashed....

Trump evidently finally realized that his stand on free trade is getting both him and US nothing as his own team has discovered EU will not do separate bilateral trade deals...and Merkel showed Trump that he had missed out on a free trade deal that had no tariffs and also 400M customers of potential US products...suddenly he showing interest in TTIP just as his team finally is fully understanding the failures in their backing out of TTP.

But again digression....all is interconnected politics national and international.....and Russia.....and that does include Trump.

Right now the only serious problem the US faces is a resurgent in your face Russia which is though in some aspects a "near peer competitor"....the next near peer competitor is China but that can in some aspects be handled with very good diplomacy as the Chinese definitely do not want a war they just want to be on the world's political stage as an equal co speaker due to their size..economy and power which is fine....

NK..deal directly and openly with it and it might surprise one...we have bashed them and bashed them into thinking we want their destruction...remember the "axis of evil speeches"...BTW I would think the same thing they do as well...

But Putin is a total different political animal...he does want the "destruction of the US" and right now cyber and information warfare are his tools....

So now I can pull back from posting.

In some aspects it is sad I cannot post a lot of our work on Russian botnets...it would shock the most devoted Trump voters in deep Iowa as well as yourself.

But in some aspects maybe not if one goes back to the Kerry's "Swiftboating incident".....and the actions of Karl Rove and his merry band....who really showed this generation of Trump white nationalists how to run a propaganda election based on fake news and disinformation...

BTW...take all the postings on Syria and Ukraine even those insignificant postings that you mention and you can build one great powerpoint briefing complete with battles...order of battle and air force capabilities and tie it straight into missed decisions made by the US WHs....historical research in near real time...never really seen before.

It then becomes a great analysis tool...I deliberately parked a number of posted comments strictly for historical reasons as I know some will come back to them in the future...

BTW...the perfect example of what I am pointing out on Trump...Trump's big thing is "currency manipulations" by China...EU and say Japan.....AND this threats to do something about it......

Japan's Aso pushes back on U.S. call for scrutiny of currency moves
http://reut.rs/2p8gcUg

BUT WOW..if one really takes a look at the US currency and how the Treasury Dept and the price of oil impacts the USD then Trump might in fact discover the US is the greatest currency manipulator going....

In theory the Euro should in fact be under the value of the USD...and sit around 80-90 cents to the US dollar...but due to US oil pricing it remains higher than that at a steady 1.06 to a real high of 1.35 per Euro.......

BUT behold..suddenly the Treasury is attempting to "talk down the USD" and it is settling now in the 1.04 to 1.06 ranges...

So the US accuses others of "currency manipulations" BUT "talking down" does not count????.....Trump's constant tax break comments is the ongoing "talking down effort".....but wait that does not count as currency manipulation...?

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....this is exactly why you cannot split right now Trump from anything and why it is important to understand his exact level of collusion with the Russians.......

French Twitter suffers barrage of incoming memes from Trump supporting accounts in US

We have been monitoring this intently since 6 this morning French time...BTW 26 of those so called proTrump accounts are being driven by Russian botnet control severs which we have clearly and concisely identified right now with their messaging first coming out of Russia to the US and then back into France...

Twitter bots & trolls that once supported Trump are now backing Marine Le Pen. What a coincidence.
http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pens-internet-army-far-right-trolls-social-media/#

This is exactly why I am doing the work I now do....BUT this ongoing cyber/information trench warfare has to be normally done by governments...but the entire US government is currently MIA and it now falls on individuals and those organizations that truly care about democracy to engage and engage we have...

We are now in the process of shutting down those bot servers that have been identified this morning....and they sit deep in Russia....

This tells me that now there is no difference in Russian influence ops being carried out against the US and those who drive US right wing influence ops against European countries in support of Russian geo political goals...and that the entire US alt right social media is under Russia influence control.

NOW ALL one and the same (US alt right and Russian geo political end goals)....and that is totally new for US politics...

REMEMBER this Trump tweet from this week....when you see the US twitter info war which surged late yesterday and this early morning on French voters...

Donald J. Trump‏
@realDonaldTrump
Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!

So did the US twitter barrage on French voters take their guidance directly from Trump's "tweet"?

There is now no difference between Russian info war actions and proTrump info war supporters.

BUT WAIT...he is one of the worst US alt right info warriors as he drives Infowars..deeply tied to Russian info war messaging and who is in the middle of a bad divorce fight.....being carried on social media

Under the rubric of "oh really now he gets it"....

“I urge the press to be respectful and responsible.” – Alex Jones, Literally Yesterday

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...probably the biggest difference between you and myself is the simple fact...I use the concept of "indicators" and ground based personal experience to link items together...

When I tie Trump's tweets to the Russian 6Ds Propaganda Principles I use his tweets..."indicators" against the ground reality of Russian info warfare principle's...then I link the two...do they match...are they similar and WHY are they being used.....what is the intended goal....etc....

If say we see major heavy Russian infowar botnet propaganda activity before and after Brexit and we see the UK neo right wing party UKIP driving that propaganda and being supported by Russian infowar botnets AND then see their leader try to get into to see WikiLeaks Assage without being seen then one sees another "indicator"...which triggers the question WHY?

WHEN we suddenly see former UKIP leader Nigel at Trump Tower just after the election and we saw Nigel participating in Trump rallies and at the inaugural..these are indicators and the question of WHY must be immediately asked and answered....

This is probably the reason ....which I actually agree with.....

This Nigel and Julian meeting isn’t going to go away. US IC suspects him of being a human courier.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/23/when-nigel-farage-met-julian-assange#

Especially important as Wikileaks was deeply involved in the Russian hacking and influence operations during the US election...

BTW....what will the Trump WH and his merry band of proRussians say about this today...especially since an American OSCE observer was deliberately killed by a Russian landmine

Will be interesting to see how/whether @StateDept and @WhiteHouse respond to death of American OSCE patrol member in Ukraine today.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....this is exactly why you cannot split right now Trump from anything and why it is important to understand his exact level of collusion with the Russians.......

French Twitter suffers barrage of incoming memes from Trump supporting accounts in US

We have been monitoring this intently since 6 this morning French time...BTW 26 of those so called proTrump accounts are being driven by Russian botnet control severs which we have clearly and concisely identified right now with their messaging first coming out of Russia to the US and then back into France...

Twitter bots & trolls that once supported Trump are now backing Marine Le Pen. What a coincidence.
http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pens-internet-army-far-right-trolls-social-media/#

This is exactly why I am doing the work I now do....BUT this ongoing cyber/information trench warfare has to be normally done by governments...but the entire US government is currently MIA and it now falls on individuals and those organizations that truly care about democracy to engage and engage we have...

We are now in the process of shutting down those bot servers that have been identified this morning....and they sit deep in Russia....

This tells me that now there is no difference in Russian influence ops being carried out against the US and those who drive US right wing influence ops against European countries in support of Russian geo political goals...and that the entire US alt right social media is under Russia influence control.

NOW ALL one and the same (US alt right and Russian geo political end goals)....and that is totally new for US politics...

REMEMBER this Trump tweet from this week....when you see the US twitter info war which surged late yesterday and this early morning on French voters...

Donald J. Trump‏
@realDonaldTrump
Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!

So did the US twitter barrage on French voters take their guidance directly from Trump's "tweet"?

There is now no difference between Russian info war actions and proTrump info war supporters.

BUT WAIT...he is one of the worst US alt right info warriors as he drives Infowars..deeply tied to Russian info war messaging and who is in the middle of a bad divorce fight.....being carried on social media

Under the rubric of "oh really now he gets it"....

“I urge the press to be respectful and responsible.” – Alex Jones, Literally Yesterday



Quick survey sample from late yesterday....the most influential users within the Twitter networks tweeting about #JeVote Surprise, several are American pro-Trump accounts on this first pass.....

[OUTLAW 09]

JUST how many US Congresspeople are involved with Assad.....

Not entirely sure what U.S. Senator Dick Black @SenRichardBlack is doing in a Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) Su-24MK2 but he is in it just before the Syrians recently dropped sarin gas...

[davidbfpo]

JUST how many US Congresspeople are involved with Assad.....Not entirely sure what U.S. Senator Dick Black @SenRichardBlack is doing in a Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) Su-24MK2 but he is in it just before the Syrians recently dropped sarin gas...

This man is not a US Senator, he is a Virginia State Senator; which is quite different and fulfills what appears to me a state government role. A local newspaper commented:
State Sen. Richard H. Black, R-Loudoun, has traveled to Syria and promised support for the government of President Bashar Assad, who U.S. officials have repeatedly said has lost the legitimacy to rule the war-torn country.His trip to a Middle Eastern country in the midst of a civil war and his comments in the face of official U.S. foreign policy are highly unusual for a state lawmaker.
Black is a part-time state senator who has no official role in foreign affairs.

Link to story dated April 27th 2016:http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/ap/state-sen-richard-black-travels-to-syria-praises-assad/article_2d0713e5-77da-5028-8d36-fdd921aff11b.html

I did note on his website he has tweeted his endorsement of Marine Le Pen. His personal website:http://www.senatorblack.com/Default.aspx

Digging around I found this March 2017 radio interview, carried by the widely regarded British "fruitcake" David Icke website:https://www.davidicke.com/article/406424/richie-allen-show-davidicke-com-senator-richard-black-global-elite-wants-thermonuclear-war-russia

He has even been interviewed recently about CW use by Press TV, an Iranian outlet. See:http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/04/08/517178/Syria-Richard-Black

[Azor]

Outlaw,

I cannot think of a period when the American mainstream media didn’t “get it wrong”. Their audience are the laity who prefer to be entertained rather than informed, and whose interest is piqued by controversy and shock. Complex and interconnected events unbounded by time, geography or interpretation must be distilled into short, simple and moral stories. Moreover, the American media has often seemed to collude with the government when intervention is being justified and has ignored those crises where the government desires no involvement.

As I have stated previously, I am not going to wade into the sewer of U.S. presidential politics. Your objections to the current president have been duly noted. I can go on at length about Kennedy, Johnson, Clinton and Obama, but this is the SWC thread on Syria. Would you rather tangle with me on Disqus?

The Syrian Civil War is not a key national interest of the U.S. in and of itself, except insofar as it overlaps with the ongoing containment and attrition of anti-Western Islamist terrorists. Note that the ongoing civil wars in D.R. Congo/Burundi, Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar, Central African Republic and Turkey have received no significant U.S. attention; those in Nigeria, Libya, Somalia and Yemen have received very little. This lack of action and interest can be attributed to any previous presidential administration. In the case of Lebanon, Western involvement was intended to counter the Soviets, Iranians and Syrians; in the case of Yugoslavia, action was intended to preserve the Western alliance.

Despite riding high on the commodity boom as Australia, Brazil, Canada and other countries did, Russia is still for all intents and purposes, “Upper Volta with rockets”. Aside from its nuclear deterrent, very limited power projection capabilities and handful of defense products, Russia is not even a near-peer competitor to the U.S. The primary American rival and potential future adversary is in fact China. If history does indeed rhyme, Russia will eventually become an ally of the West as part of a coalition to contain Chinese aggression.

Your personal biases cause you to focus on Russia exclusively and to ignore China, when it comes to American grand strategy, even though Russia too desires: “to be on the world’s political stage as an equal co-speaker”.

Note that since securing mainland China after World War II, the Chinese Communist Party has:


Murdered roughly 10% of the Chinese population to consolidate power
Invaded South Korea
Attacked the Soviet Union
Invaded Vietnam
Supported the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia that murdered 25% of its population
Supported the Kim dynasty in North Korea that murdered 10% of its population
Attacked and threatened Taiwan
Developed nuclear weapons
Improved and increased its nuclear arsenal specifically to target the U.S.
Developed offensive weaponry to specifically target the U.S. and its allies
Imprisoned, tortured and murdered dissidents, and continues to do so
Maintained the largest slave labor force of any country
Executed more people per year, legally and extra-judicially than any other country
Partnered with countries hostile to the U.S., including Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, Nicaragua and Pakistan


These facts should place the PRC in the proper perspective, despite my digression from the topic of Syria. The PRC was never reconstructed in the way that the Soviet Union was partially in 1956, 1987 and 1991.

In the end, the civil wars in Iraq and Syria revolve around Sunni-Shia relations, Arab-Kurdish relations and the Iranian bid for mastery in the Middle East. Certainly, Russia has played spoiler to American initiatives in Syria and has gained some much needed combat experience there. The Damascus-Teheran plan to reduce the Sunni Arab population, and thereby the pool of opponents to Assad, will continue whether Russia is deployed in Syria or not.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

I cannot think of a period when the American mainstream media didn’t “get it wrong”. Their audience are the laity who prefer to be entertained rather than informed, and whose interest is piqued by controversy and shock. Complex and interconnected events unbounded by time, geography or interpretation must be distilled into short, simple and moral stories. Moreover, the American media has often seemed to collude with the government when intervention is being justified and has ignored those crises where the government desires no involvement.

As I have stated previously, I am not going to wade into the sewer of U.S. presidential politics. Your objections to the current president have been duly noted. I can go on at length about Kennedy, Johnson, Clinton and Obama, but this is the SWC thread on Syria. Would you rather tangle with me on Disqus?

The Syrian Civil War is not a key national interest of the U.S. in and of itself, except insofar as it overlaps with the ongoing containment and attrition of anti-Western Islamist terrorists. Note that the ongoing civil wars in D.R. Congo/Burundi, Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar, Central African Republic and Turkey have received no significant U.S. attention; those in Nigeria, Libya, Somalia and Yemen have received very little. This lack of action and interest can be attributed to any previous presidential administration. In the case of Lebanon, Western involvement was intended to counter the Soviets, Iranians and Syrians; in the case of Yugoslavia, action was intended to preserve the Western alliance.

Despite riding high on the commodity boom as Australia, Brazil, Canada and other countries did, Russia is still for all intents and purposes, “Upper Volta with rockets”. Aside from its nuclear deterrent, very limited power projection capabilities and handful of defense products, Russia is not even a near-peer competitor to the U.S. The primary American rival and potential future adversary is in fact China. If history does indeed rhyme, Russia will eventually become an ally of the West as part of a coalition to contain Chinese aggression.

Your personal biases cause you to focus on Russia exclusively and to ignore China, when it comes to American grand strategy, even though Russia too desires: “to be on the world’s political stage as an equal co-speaker”.

Note that since securing mainland China after World War II, the Chinese Communist Party has:


Murdered roughly 10% of the Chinese population to consolidate power
Invaded South Korea
Attacked the Soviet Union
Invaded Vietnam
Supported the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia that murdered 25% of its population
Supported the Kim dynasty in North Korea that murdered 10% of its population
Attacked and threatened Taiwan
Developed nuclear weapons
Improved and increased its nuclear arsenal specifically to target the U.S.
Developed offensive weaponry to specifically target the U.S. and its allies
Imprisoned, tortured and murdered dissidents, and continues to do so
Maintained the largest slave labor force of any country
Executed more people per year, legally and extra-judicially than any other country
Partnered with countries hostile to the U.S., including Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, Nicaragua and Pakistan


These facts should place the PRC in the proper perspective, despite my digression from the topic of Syria. The PRC was never reconstructed in the way that the Soviet Union was partially in 1956, 1987 and 1991.

In the end, the civil wars in Iraq and Syria revolve around Sunni-Shia relations, Arab-Kurdish relations and the Iranian bid for mastery in the Middle East. Certainly, Russia has played spoiler to American initiatives in Syria and has gained some much needed combat experience there. The Damascus-Teheran plan to reduce the Sunni Arab population, and thereby the pool of opponents to Assad, will continue whether Russia is deployed in Syria or not.

Have we then if you are in fact correct...as an assumption...then we are just as complicit in genocide as is Assad and Putin because we could have stopped if that had been any interesting in stopping it which I have not seen since 2012....the argument has always been ...it is not of a strategic importance to the US...but in the end it has become in fact "strategic important" as this turmoil will go on for another decade of so....

So yes based on the IHL and international treaties we are in fact complicit in genocide...

[OUTLAW 09]

This man is not a US Senator, he is a Virginia State Senator; which is quite different and fulfills what appears to me a state government role. A local newspaper commented:
Link to story dated April 27th 2016:http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/ap/state-sen-richard-black-travels-to-syria-praises-assad/article_2d0713e5-77da-5028-8d36-fdd921aff11b.html

I did note on his website he has tweeted his endorsement of Marine Le Pen. His personal website:http://www.senatorblack.com/Default.aspx

Digging around I found this March 2017 radio interview, carried by the widely regarded British "fruitcake" David Icke website:https://www.davidicke.com/article/406424/richie-allen-show-davidicke-com-senator-richard-black-global-elite-wants-thermonuclear-war-russia

He has even been interviewed recently about CW use by Press TV, an Iranian outlet. See:http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/04/08/517178/Syria-Richard-Black

So we have a "state senator" flying to a country the UNSC views as a user of CWs...which has been deemed to be committing genocide...starvation and ethnic cleansing and a state sponsor Russia is in direct violation of IHL and complicit in dropping sarin and this US state senator even gives interviews to Iranian media....

And he is not interviewed by CBP when he returns from Syria as are Iranians who enter the US lately?

Remember US politicians still must request approval from the US government for their trips into Syria and the HI Congresswoman is in deep trouble for her failure to do just that and he is not?

So who paid for the trip and paid for his 4 star hotel stay in Damascus..he certainly did not?

[Azor]

Have we then if you are in fact correct...as an assumption...then we are just as complicit in genocide as is Assad and Putin because we could have stopped if that had been any interesting in stopping it which I have not seen since 2012....the argument has always been ...it is not of a strategic importance to the US...but in the end it has become in fact "strategic important" as this turmoil will go on for another decade of so....

So yes based on the IHL and international treaties we are in fact complicit in genocide...


Unfortunately, international "law" isn't your strong suit. In terms of applying the "Responsibility to Protect" to the case of the Syrian Civil War:



There must be "reasonable prospects" of success using military intervention. I doubt that this case can be made.


The military action has to be authorized by the UN Security Council. Yeah, right.



Do countries with no military power projection capabilities have a duty to establish militaries solely for the purposes of intervening in foreign countries to protect civilians? What of Iceland?


So what of D.R. Congo and Burundi? Should the West not intervene there first as the area of greatest need?

[davidbfpo]

Citing Azor in part:
So what of D.R. Congo and Burundi? Should the West not intervene there first as the area of greatest need?

There was a debate here on DR Congo and Rwanda, with separate threads. IIRC no-one advocated a Western R2P at time, although there was a debate afterwards and Canadian General Dalliare appeared.

We then had several SME and "boots on the ground" members who added their experience and weight: Tom Odom & Stan Reber come to mind.

There is a thread open now on Burundi, which is a simmering small war. No-one here IIRC has advocated a Western R2P. To be fair I somehow expect we are paying in part some of UN / African Union involvement there (as we are elsewhere in Africa).

[Azor]

From the BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39708909


The US has expressed "deep concern" at Turkish air strikes that killed about two dozen Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq.

The US-backed Popular Protection Units (YPG), fighting against IS, said their positions were hit multiple times.

Turkey regards the YPG as linked to outlawed Kurdish separatists. Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, friendly to Turkey, also reportedly suffered fatalities.
The Iraqi government condemned the strikes carried out on its territory.
US state department spokesman Mark Toner said: "We are very concerned, deeply concerned that Turkey conducted air strikes earlier today in northern Syria as well as northern Iraq without proper co-ordination either with the United States or the broader global coalition to defeat IS."
He added: "We have expressed those concerns to the government of Turkey directly."

Iraqi government spokesman Saad al-Hadithi said: "The Iraqi government condemns and rejects the strikes carried out by Turkish aircraft on Iraqi territory."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended the air strikes, telling Reuters: "We are obliged to take measures. We must take steps.
"We shared this with the US and Russia and we are sharing it with Iraq as well. It is an operation that (Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud) Barzani has been informed about."

The number killed has not been confirmed but reports suggest about 18 YPG and five Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga members died.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring organisation, said a dawn strike on Tuesday targeted Kurdish positions in Hassakeh province in north-east Syria, hitting a media centre and radio station.

A separate series of strikes hit a base near Sinjar in northern Iraq, close to the Syrian border.

Mr Erdogan said he regretted the death of the Peshmerga, saying it was "absolutely not an operation against [them]".

In a statement, the Peshmerga said that while the attack was "unacceptable", it blamed forces from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the area and called on them to withdraw.

The PKK is a Turkish-Kurdish rebel group that has been fighting an armed struggle against the Turkish government since the 1980s.

The strikes reflect how complicated the situation is in the battle against so-called Islamic State in Syria and northern Iraq.

The US is relying heavily on Kurdish forces on the ground but its ally, Turkey, views the YPG as an extension of the PKK.

A ceasefire between Turkey and the PKK ended last year and clashes have since claimed hundreds of lives on both sides.

A commander for the Kurdish forces in Syria called on its international allies to defend their forces from further attacks.

"We are asking the international coalition to intervene to stop these Turkish violations," the unnamed commander told the AFP news agency.
"It's unthinkable that we are fighting on a front as important as Raqqa while Turkish planes bomb us in the back," he said, referring to the IS stronghold in northern Syria.

A US military commander met Kurdish fighters after the attack to show solidarity.

[Azor]

There was a debate here on DR Congo and Rwanda, with separate threads. IIRC no-one advocated a Western R2P at time, although there was a debate afterwards and Canadian General Dalliare appeared.

We then had several SME and "boots on the ground" members who added their experience and weight: Tom Odom & Stan Reber come to mind.

There is a thread open now on Burundi, which is a simmering small war. No-one here IIRC has advocated a Western R2P. To be fair I somehow expect we are paying in part some of UN / African Union involvement there (as we are elsewhere in Africa).

Yes, I am aware of the D.R.C. thread, and I mentioned Burundi only because of spillover. I brought this particular conflict up because Outlaw had asserted that the Syrian Civil War involved genocide against Sunni Arabs and demanded foreign intervention under international law.

I countered on the legal or diplomatic aspects, and suggested the ongoing D.R.C./Burundi War as a more worthy mission for humanitarian intervention, given:


The far higher death toll
Most fatalities being civilians (whereas in Syria they are combatants)
More fatalities per year
A far longer time period


It was a tongue-in-cheek suggestion as clearly Outlaw is more interested in ending the Syrian Civil War (as well as the Russo-Ukrainian one) and on his terms, rather than say ending all ongoing wars or saving the most people, irrespective of location or the country(ies) involved. It is one thing to be more interested in what Russia and Iran are up to - a bias I share - it is quite another to cry genocide selectively...

[CrowBat]

This, 'for the records'....

The THK flew at least 24 air strikes on PKK's positions in NW Syria and N Iraq yesterday. This strike was announced 1 hour in advance (https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/856923599952805889) to the USA and Russia - both of which objected to it. Many of air strikes concentrated on the area around Tel Rifa'at, in northern Aleppo - where, between others, the THK hit the Rojava Radio (https://twitter.com/hetavrojan/status/856798240787886080) and the CIRA-FM (plus the YPG HQ in Karacoke, in Derik, in Iraq).

According to Turkish officials, 40 YPG and 30 PKK were killed (https://twitter.com/BreakingJunkie/status/856910079739785221) there. The YPG confirmed the death (https://twitter.com/Tekosin87/status/856878687265976320) of 'most of its media centre', then the death of 20 of its combatants (https://twitter.com/Dr_Partizan/status/856878390888079360), plus that 18 were WIA, of which 3 in cricial condition.

Adding to its 'standard absurdism', the Pentagon complained (https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/856940363638071298) that 'these air strikes were not approved by the Counter-ISIS-Coalition and led to the unfortunate loss of life of our partner forces.' Actually, the PKK/PYD/YPG in the area that was hit has NEVER fought the ISIS (on the contrary: it cooperated with it at least as often as if attacked local Syrian insurgents), it is enjoying support of Assadists and Russians - and was never a part of the SDF (it only declared itself as such, which is the same as if I would declare myself the citizen of Andorra).

Involved TSK's UAVs can sometimes be tracked on FR24 (https://twitter.com/obretix/status/856980317441327104)

[CrowBat]

...and this, too:

This is a link to a particularly important piece of research (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-HES00XUAAzoOU.jpg) - filling plenty of gaps.

It leads to a diagram summarizing results of interviews with a number of FSyA and HTS combatants involved in the recent offensive on northern Hama.

Essence is: the FSyA had a sound plan for assaulting Hama (city) - which could have worked (they hit an area without centralized Assadist command, and then directly at the joint of two different frontlines: that's always a recipe for success). But, the HTS decided to go for Qamahana instead.

The HTS not only failed to take Qamahana, but then began sabotaging the operation, even forcing FSyA units to withdraw - and the AAS (Ahrar ash-Sham) joined it in such efforts.

Russian air strikes were 'only partially the reason for the failure'.

If only a part of this is true (and there are no reasons to have doubts about this: each time the IRGC and the V Corps broke through, it was on the eastern - HTS-controlled - side of the frontlines), it is nothing short but a treachery. This even more so in the light of reports about the FSyA suffering minimal losses early on - until the HTS attacked their injured and slaughtered hundreds (https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/856278077961375744).

[OUTLAW 09]

Unfortunately, international "law" isn't your strong suit. In terms of applying the "Responsibility to Protect" to the case of the Syrian Civil War:



There must be "reasonable prospects" of success using military intervention. I doubt that this case can be made.


The military action has to be authorized by the UN Security Council. Yeah, right.



Do countries with no military power projection capabilities have a duty to establish militaries solely for the purposes of intervening in foreign countries to protect civilians? What of Iceland?


So what of D.R. Congo and Burundi? Should the West not intervene there first as the area of greatest need?

BUT WAIT...THEN you really do need to read your international law..especially the International Humanitarian Law on the use of chemical weapons and cluster incendiaries which are in fact covered ..since 1929...

SO let me get this straight...my bashing Trump on his use of TLAMS really for a "Wag the Dog" effect ACTUALLY set another US precedent...one you seemed to have overlooked in your cut and paste comments....

He acted actually under the guise of "UNSC failed to take any action even when warned the US would"....

THEN if I understand Putin correctly he has repeatedly accused the US since 2004 of getting involved in Bosnia and Kosovo without UNSC support...which Trump has now done...

NOW go exactly back to the CrowBat comments you also tend to clash on and "listen" to what he has been saying as well....

IF the US redline had been in effect implemented and the entire Assad AF grounded in 2013 including copters...then we would not have the following......

1. chemical attacks via barrel bombs and bombs
2. no further use of barrel bombs against civilians
3. Russia would not have had the opportunity to enter Syria THUS
4. no Russian cluster incendiaries/bunker busters against civilians
5. no Russian air strikes against food...water infrastructures and no hospital bombings....
6. no Russian troops and PMCs on Syrian soil
7. mass refugee/IDP flows from totally destroyed towns/villages/cities

AND certainly no recent major Russia oil/gas deal to repay Russia for all of their support...

And more importantly no Assad.....

Now back to IHL which apparently you feel I do not understand....BY not holding to and enforcing that 2013 red line the US has actually become "complicit" on the violations being committed under IHL by both Assad and Putin.....

Now check that out with a local IHL Professor..he/she will agree with me....

Emphasis placed on the word "complicit"...

[OUTLAW 09]

Unfortunately, international "law" isn't your strong suit. In terms of applying the "Responsibility to Protect" to the case of the Syrian Civil War:



There must be "reasonable prospects" of success using military intervention. I doubt that this case can be made.


The military action has to be authorized by the UN Security Council. Yeah, right.



Do countries with no military power projection capabilities have a duty to establish militaries solely for the purposes of intervening in foreign countries to protect civilians? What of Iceland?


So what of D.R. Congo and Burundi? Should the West not intervene there first as the area of greatest need?

1. Last time I seriously checked Iceland politics....they need no "saving" outside of their driven into the ground banking system that massively invested in US driven real estate deals that almost bankrupted the entire country..but that was US criminal activity driven.

The PanamaPapers have done more for Iceland than anyone else....

2. D.R Congo and related countries.........

IMHO right now there are far more serious issues....namely 20-30M starving literally starving people now in Africa and other areas of the world which pose a far greater threat to people losing their lives which can in fact be answered with simply "food" and no military actions...

Which if I understand the latest Trump WH budget he is cutting virtually all foreign aid...which includes that given to Ukraine....

BUT WAIT...the US has had two back to back BUMPER crop years in say just corn so ship it to Africa....stamp it foreign aid and pay US producers a fair price because right now the price is in the basement globally...win win....

BUT WAIT...because the greedy US farmers decided to park their BUMPER year in the open unprotected from moisture or in just covered storage sheds also not protected from moisture because they though the global market price would rise that entire BUMPER crop is contaminated with fungus making it unfit for consumption even by animals......

They cannot even sell it to pet food manufacturers...not even for ethanol production...

But hey I am not knowledgeable in farming am I?

[OUTLAW 09]

...and this, too:

This is a link to a particularly important piece of research (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-HES00XUAAzoOU.jpg) - filling plenty of gaps.

It leads to a diagram summarizing results of interviews with a number of FSyA and HTS combatants involved in the recent offensive on northern Hama.

Essence is: the FSyA had a sound plan for assaulting Hama (city) - which could have worked (they hit an area without centralized Assadist command, and then directly at the joint of two different frontlines: that's always a recipe for success). But, the HTS decided to go for Qamahana instead.

The HTS not only failed to take Qamahana, but then began sabotaging the operation, even forcing FSyA units to withdraw - and the AAS (Ahrar ash-Sham) joined it in such efforts.

Russian air strikes were 'only partially the reason for the failure'.

If only a part of this is true (and there are no reasons to have doubts about this: each time the IRGC and the V Corps broke through, it was on the eastern - HTS-controlled - side of the frontlines), it is nothing short but a treachery. This even more so in the light of reports about the FSyA suffering minimal losses early on - until the HTS attacked their injured and slaughtered hundreds (https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/856278077961375744).

Azor...CrowBat is trying to show you the way forward right now in Syria and no one in the US is "seeing and understanding" the big picture around HTS....

Try going back and rereading a number of the articles that I have posted on IS/Assad and now HTS.....from say Lister...Hassan Hassan and or Ortan...

No one of any reputation on understanding Syria who resides in the US is actually writing on this subject..why is that?

And BTW how is Trump doing on the "I will eradicate IS from the face of the earth thingy"?

A headline here in Germany today quoted an unnamed member of the Trump WH that Trump is executing on his Syrian strategy....

That was needless to say a "do what moment"?....

Why because what was being explained was no different than Obama's strategy which really was a full tilt to Iran and that was about it....but we know what Trump's view on Iran is....so something has to be different somewhere but it was not.....

But since he is a real estate professional..he is selling you and me a "grand strategy" I guess"? They are trying to repackage an outhouse and selling it as Trump Tower...

We will just have to wait to see if it is "finally built and is paying property taxes"....with no corruption along the way.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you do have a way of pulling me back in although today we are in the midst of a heavy botnet research product due for some consumers tied to Russian propaganda and US social media account holders...

As you well know and have pointed out I have bashed both Obama and Trump on their Syrian policies and actions.....

This goes to the Obama redline and goes to the heart of Trump's so called "new Syrian strategy" which is really Obama's just repackaged for his voters and designed to make him look "forceful and a decision maker".....

Take a serious relook and reread or read if you have not the French released study on Syrian use of sarin......

Right now European intel services appear to be light years ahead of the US services as it was 7 that pushed Trump collusion information to the US which had not generated by US IC sources.....

The French regardless of what one thinks have a solid ME espionage focus....read this and ask yourself why did not Obama strike Syria.....

IMHO...it was largely due to the Republican controlled Congress if you reread the comments they were making then...I do seriously think that if he had pulled the trigger in 2013 he was looking over his shoulder and was worrying about "impeachment" as the Republicans were even then stating he does not have the authority......that it would exceed his powers as President ..no War Powers Act in place etc...

REMEMBER it was largely the entire Congress outside of Dems that vocally was standing up and saying no air strikes without our permission....did Trump ask for it with his TLAMS...no and what was the Republican outcry...none....

So if this French report is accurate then why did Obama largely ignore the massive USIC evidence he had been given about Russian meddling in the US election before the election AND more importantly why did he actually believe Putin stating all chemicals are out of Syria when the French were saying no...and even OPWC was not fully certain as well...

The report also states Syria failed to declare CW stockpiles and munitions, and try to acquire more Sarin precursors

France makes it explicit that the sarin used in Saraqeb 2013 and Khan Sheikhoun 2017 are the same, very important!!

France intel estimates only Bashar Assad and some of most influential members of his team are empowered to give order to use chem weapons"

AND supposedly the Russian SVR/GRU did not know about the Assad use of sarin at all??

AND now what will Trump and his merry band of brothers do??

[OUTLAW 09]

There was another attack in Sheikh Magsoud that was very similar to the Saraqeb attack, same munitions used. Left Saraqeb, right SM

So that suggests the Sheikh Magsoud attack was also a Sarin attack, so that's 4 attacks linked the Syrian government starting in 2013....and responses from the US have been exactly what again???

From Obama a vocal redline and from Trump a TLAM moment and then silence..

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...so we now have a somewhat untrustworthy Russia supporting an equally untrustworthy Assad sitting on approximately 20 TONNES of sarin with a manufacturing process, large amounts of percursors and a willingness to use it.....

REMEMBER it was Putin and his FM Larvor who joyously pointed to the high success of the Russians in getting Assad to comply and it was their recovery efforts as well AND they stated this to both Obama and the entire UNSC....

Al Arabiya English
✔
@AlArabiya_Eng
BREAKING:During joint presser with Russian FM Lavrov, Saudi FM Jubeir says Assad regime must pay price for chemical attack on #KhanShiekhoun

SO now what does Trump do and he is worrying over a nuclear NK....?

The last time I checked NK has not used their nuclear capacity in an open attack....Assad has at least four times since 2013....

[OUTLAW 09]

...and this, too:

This is a link to a particularly important piece of research (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-HES00XUAAzoOU.jpg) - filling plenty of gaps.

It leads to a diagram summarizing results of interviews with a number of FSyA and HTS combatants involved in the recent offensive on northern Hama.

Essence is: the FSyA had a sound plan for assaulting Hama (city) - which could have worked (they hit an area without centralized Assadist command, and then directly at the joint of two different frontlines: that's always a recipe for success). But, the HTS decided to go for Qamahana instead.

The HTS not only failed to take Qamahana, but then began sabotaging the operation, even forcing FSyA units to withdraw - and the AAS (Ahrar ash-Sham) joined it in such efforts.

Russian air strikes were 'only partially the reason for the failure'.

If only a part of this is true (and there are no reasons to have doubts about this: each time the IRGC and the V Corps broke through, it was on the eastern - HTS-controlled - side of the frontlines), it is nothing short but a treachery. This even more so in the light of reports about the FSyA suffering minimal losses early on - until the HTS attacked their injured and slaughtered hundreds (https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/856278077961375744).

CrowBat..actually extremely interesting in that AQ leader recently released a video pleading with the FSA to join HTS as only HTS is able to defeat Assad.....

Interesting as well for Sham playing the HTS game ....

Had seen often the account @BosnjoBoy but had not followed him....

[OUTLAW 09]

Senior Russian general: Russian special forces hunting militant leaders in Syria
http://www.ng.ru/news/580106.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

AND someone tell me that CENTCOM truly did not see this coming...Turkey has only been complaining about US support to YPG and PKK for months....

US asked Turkey not to carry out air strikes without coordination. Turkey did it anyway.

Turkey conducted airstrikes in northern #Syria...resulting in the loss of life of our partnered forces" per @OIRSpox

So is in fact CENTCOM admitting to fully and completely supporting PKK...

Syria More #US supplies for Kurds
https://streamable.com/grqlh

US-led coalition spokesman: "There are #PKK elements in Northern #Syria."
Yes, we know and now they have #US weapons.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian killing just continues and that so called Trump grand Syrian strategy...MIA.....

Idlib: Shocking video shows the first minutes after the #Russia|n airstrikes against a camp full of displaced #Syria|n civilians today.

[CrowBat]

CrowBat..actually extremely interesting in that AQ leader recently released a video pleading with the FSA to join HTS as only HTS is able to defeat Assad.....HTS is living in the same fool's paradise like Assad. And they are just after replacing his regime of terror with theirs.

That said, I'm not surprised they're crying for FSyA to join them: this operation (in northern Hama) made it more than obvious they can't fight without the FSyA.

A reason more to consider the Western failure to support the FSyA the biggest crime in this war.


Interesting as well for Sham playing the HTS game ...They are my new Kurds now: blindly convinced they can outsmart everybody else. :rolleyes:


Had seen often the account @BosnjoBoy but had not followed him....Well, he is not really a good source. I mean: plenty of his reports are just nonsense. But, there are always exceptions: gauging by rather complaining tune in reactions from Ahrar, I would say this time he's right.

[CrowBat]

BTW, that fool of the CENTCOM's spox really got some good replies in reaction to his crying for his PKK terrorist pals (http://warisboring.com/heres-the-key-to-understanding-the-russian-air-forces-actions-in-syria/)...

And me, fool, thought the US military just can't sink any lower after the Iraq War.... :rolleyes:

[Azor]

Outlaw,

Please excuse my parsing, which is done for brevity, clarity and greater readability of the thread i.e. occupying less of the page.

With respect to the Iceland reference, I am asking you if a country with no military has a duty to establish one for the purposes of humanitarian intervention. Having covered the legal side, on the basis of what criteria does the United States have a moral obligation to depose Assad but China, Brazil or Iceland do not?


2. D.R Congo and related countries...IMHO right now there are far more serious issues...

I didn’t expect you to exposure yourself to me like that. You might as well be wearing a Trotsky t-shirt in Red Square in 1937. ;)

At least 3 million civilians have been slaughtered in the D.R. Congo and to a lesser extent, Burundi, since 1996, during wars in which combatants were less than 10% of total fatalities. That is mass murder. That is genocide. In Syria, government and rebel forces have each lost more combatants than the civilian death toll, which is 20% to 32% of the overall fatalities.

To be frank, it is like speaking to someone from the 1930s who is eager to join the International Brigades in Spain to fight the Nationalists and demands that the League of Nations intervenes there, whilst millions of peasants are shot, bludgeoned, starved and worked to death in the Soviet Union, and hundreds of thousands of ethnic and religious minorities are murdered there. You claim to be separate from and superior to the mass mainstream media, yet you ignore the daily slaughter in Africa that they ignore.


Azor...CrowBat is trying to show you the way forward right now in Syria…

That does Syria no good. I have no ability to influence events there or to impose my preferences on the war.


No one of any reputation on understanding Syria who resides in the US is actually writing on this subject...why is that?

Perhaps it is fatigue? After all, intra-rebel fighting is nothing new.


…you really do need to read your international law...especially the International Humanitarian Law on the use of chemical weapons and cluster incendiaries which are in fact covered...since 1929...

This is interesting, because Hussein used chemical weapons against Iranians and Iraqis with relative impunity during the 1980s and 1990s, and Russia, Israel and the U.S. all continue to use cluster and incendiary weapons.


…if I understand Putin correctly he has repeatedly accused the US since 2004 of getting involved in Bosnia and Kosovo without UNSC support...which Trump has now done...

That is not fully correct, as Putin denounced Operation Odyssey Dawn, which was under a UNSC mandate, but was supportive of Operation Enduring Freedom, which did not. Rather than UNSC approval, which Putin did not seek for himself in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine or Syria, Putin is primarily concerned with NATO: its continuing enlargement, its ABM program, and its use from 1999 to present as an offensive alliance and occupation force.


NOW go exactly back to the CrowBat comments you also tend to clash on and "listen" to what he has been saying as well...

I do follow CrowBat quite closely, and we agree on much. However, CrowBat believes that an American intervention in Syria, whether in 2013 or 2016, would have gone unchallenged by either Russia or Iran, and that they would have stood aside. That is merely his more risky opinion and he is in no position to claim more insight than a risk-averse analyst. I fundamentally disagree with him here, and I believe that Putin would have welcomed the opportunity to counterpunch Obama and exposed the impotence of American power that had been heretofore unchallenged in the Third World. I argued with him about the details of how Putin could have counterpunched, and CrowBat was unable to allay my concerns or refute my arguments. Capabilities, are of course, not the same as intentions.


IF the US redline had been in effect implemented and the entire Assad AF grounded in 2013 including copters...then we would not have the following...

1. chemical attacks via barrel bombs and bombs
2. no further use of barrel bombs against civilians
3. Russia would not have had the opportunity to enter Syria THUS
4. no Russian cluster incendiaries/bunker busters against civilians
5. no Russian air strikes against food...water infrastructures and no hospital bombings....
6. no Russian troops and PMCs on Syrian soil
7. mass refugee/IDP flows from totally destroyed towns/villages/cities

AND certainly no recent major Russia oil/gas deal to repay Russia for all of their support...

And more importantly no Assad....

RE:


Agreed. However, Assad could have launched chemical weapons by way of artillery
Agreed. However, Russia has cluster and incendiary munitions, and only a fraction of the civilian casualties are caused by airpower
Nyet. How would the U.S. have stopped Russia’s entry? Shot down Russian aircraft? Sunk Russian ships?
Nyet
Nyet
Nyet
Nyet. Most Syrian refugees became so prior to Russia’s direct intervention


Some commentators have argued that Syria is a proxy war between Iranian and Qatari pipelines, both of which were being proposed prior to the war. How can Russia collect on such a deal if Syria remains a failed state? Yet Russia is making no major effort to end the war and reconstruct the state.

This recent airstrike did not cause Assad to be overthrown. Only the Iranians can do that, and right now they want to reconquer the rest of Syria for him.


Now back to IHL which apparently you feel I do not understand....BY not holding to and enforcing that 2013 red line the US has actually become "complicit" on the violations being committed under IHL by both Assad and Putin...Now check that out with a local IHL Professor...he/she will agree with me...

Obama’s so-called “red line” had no legal standing, either in the U.S. or internationally.

Obama stated in August 2012:


…a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized…That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.

That statement barely hints at action, and neither a changing “calculus” or “equation” is suggestive of action or policy. The U.S. government expresses preferences on international crises all the time, and no scholar of international law would agree with you that the U.S. is “complicit” in the violation of these preferences if it is not willing to go to war to secure them.


…read this and ask yourself why did not Obama strike Syria...IMHO...it was largely due to the Republican controlled Congress if you reread the comments they were making then...I do seriously think that if he had pulled the trigger in 2013 he was looking over his shoulder and was worrying about "impeachment" as the Republicans were even then stating he does not have the authority...that it would exceed his powers as President...no War Powers Act in place etc...

The War Powers Resolution has been largely ignored: Clinton was not impeached for violating it multiple times, and Obama was not impeached for violating it in 2011.

Obama did not launch strikes against Syria because he did not want to: he procrastinated and hoped that refusal by the British and American lower houses could be blamed for inaction. Obama waited ten days before seeking Congressional approval whereas Trump acted within forty-eight hours. Obama avoided action because Syria was and is Iran’s deal, however much Putin showboats, and Obama wanted to seal the JCPOA.

Trump does not appear willing to tear up the JCPOA, but he is probably willing to tangle with Iran and force Teheran to choose between its bid for mastery in the Persian Gulf and the JCPOA. He seems to want to force Iran to make the first move to abrogate it.


Azor...so we now have a somewhat untrustworthy Russia supporting an equally untrustworthy Assad sitting on approximately 20 TONNES of sarin with a manufacturing process, large amounts of precursors and a willingness to use it...

When were Putin or Assad ever trustworthy?

I never believed that Assad ever fully surrendered his stockpile or dismantled his production capabilities: chemical weapons ensure the survival of his statelet. I believe that the Russians were aware of his duplicity but that they would not have countenanced the use of these reserves except as a last resort. I also believe that the Iranians suggested that Assad use them in Khan Sheikhoun in order to test Trump’s level of interest in the war and his resolve, as this would be preferable to shooting breaking out in the Strait of Hormuz.

Assad has yet to use Sarin again after the strike on Shayrat.


SO now what does Trump do and he is worrying over a nuclear NK....? The last time I checked NK has not used their nuclear capacity in an open attack...Assad has at least four times since 2013...

Nuclear weapons are far more destructive than chemical ones, which is why chemical weapons were banned. North Korea is led by a genocidal regime that has threatened to “preemptively” use nuclear weapons against other countries, including the U.S.

[Azor]

CrowBat, perhaps this (below) is the source of the erroneous report that the SyAAF dispersed to Russian-protected airbases?

Syria Situation Report (April 14-20): http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/April%2020EDITS%20COT.pdf


April 17: Russia Allegedly Withdraws from Hama Military Airport: Russia reportedly withdrew its military forces and equipment from Hama Military Airport in Central Syria to Bassel Al-Assad International Airport on the Syrian
Coast. Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated Jaysh a-Nasr later targeted Hama Military Airport with more than forty rockets, temporarily putting the airfield out of service after destroying the control tower and
several warplanes.

Outlaw, this Syrian Civil War analyst follows FSA-HTS fighting...

Syria Situation Report (March 30 to April 14): http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/April%2014EDITS%20COT.pdf


April 5: Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham Kills FSA Affiliated Commander: Fighters in Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham reportedly killed Free Idlib Army Chief of Staff Col. Ali Asmahi at a checkpoint near Khan al-Sabil in Idlib Province while attempting to detain members of the group. Hay’at Tahrir a-Sham acknowledged its responsibility for the death and agreed to form a sharia court to resolve the dispute. The incident comes after reports that a number of Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated groups including the Free Idlib Army, Jaysh al-Nasr, and Jaysh al-Izza formed a unified operations room in Idlib Province in conjunction with the covert U.S.-backed Military Operations Command (MOM) based in Turkey

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

Please excuse my parsing, which is done for brevity, clarity and greater readability of the thread i.e. occupying less of the page.

With respect to the Iceland reference, I am asking you if a country with no military has a duty to establish one for the purposes of humanitarian intervention. Having covered the legal side, on the basis of what criteria does the United States have a moral obligation to depose Assad but China, Brazil or Iceland do not?



I didn’t expect you to exposure yourself to me like that. You might as well be wearing a Trotsky t-shirt in Red Square in 1937. ;)

At least 3 million civilians have been slaughtered in the D.R. Congo and to a lesser extent, Burundi, since 1996, during wars in which combatants were less than 10% of total fatalities. That is mass murder. That is genocide. In Syria, government and rebel forces have each lost more combatants than the civilian death toll, which is 20% to 32% of the overall fatalities.

To be frank, it is like speaking to someone from the 1930s who is eager to join the International Brigades in Spain to fight the Nationalists and demands that the League of Nations intervenes there, whilst millions of peasants are shot, bludgeoned, starved and worked to death in the Soviet Union, and hundreds of thousands of ethnic and religious minorities are murdered there. You claim to be separate from and superior to the mass mainstream media, yet you ignore the daily slaughter in Africa that they ignore.



That does Syria no good. I have no ability to influence events there or to impose my preferences on the war.



Perhaps it is fatigue? After all, intra-rebel fighting is nothing new.



This is interesting, because Hussein used chemical weapons against Iranians and Iraqis with relative impunity during the 1980s and 1990s, and Russia, Israel and the U.S. all continue to use cluster and incendiary weapons.



That is not fully correct, as Putin denounced Operation Odyssey Dawn, which was under a UNSC mandate, but was supportive of Operation Enduring Freedom, which did not. Rather than UNSC approval, which Putin did not seek for himself in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine or Syria, Putin is primarily concerned with NATO: its continuing enlargement, its ABM program, and its use from 1999 to present as an offensive alliance and occupation force.



I do follow CrowBat quite closely, and we agree on much. However, CrowBat believes that an American intervention in Syria, whether in 2013 or 2016, would have gone unchallenged by either Russia or Iran, and that they would have stood aside. That is merely his more risky opinion and he is in no position to claim more insight than a risk-averse analyst. I fundamentally disagree with him here, and I believe that Putin would have welcomed the opportunity to counterpunch Obama and exposed the impotence of American power that had been heretofore unchallenged in the Third World. I argued with him about the details of how Putin could have counterpunched, and CrowBat was unable to allay my concerns or refute my arguments. Capabilities, are of course, not the same as intentions.



RE:


Agreed. However, Assad could have launched chemical weapons by way of artillery
Agreed. However, Russia has cluster and incendiary munitions, and only a fraction of the civilian casualties are caused by airpower
Nyet. How would the U.S. have stopped Russia’s entry? Shot down Russian aircraft? Sunk Russian ships?
Nyet
Nyet
Nyet
Nyet. Most Syrian refugees became so prior to Russia’s direct intervention


Some commentators have argued that Syria is a proxy war between Iranian and Qatari pipelines, both of which were being proposed prior to the war. How can Russia collect on such a deal if Syria remains a failed state? Yet Russia is making no major effort to end the war and reconstruct the state.

This recent airstrike did not cause Assad to be overthrown. Only the Iranians can do that, and right now they want to reconquer the rest of Syria for him.



Obama’s so-called “red line” had no legal standing, either in the U.S. or internationally.

Obama stated in August 2012:



That statement barely hints at action, and neither a changing “calculus” or “equation” is suggestive of action or policy. The U.S. government expresses preferences on international crises all the time, and no scholar of international law would agree with you that the U.S. is “complicit” in the violation of these preferences if it is not willing to go to war to secure them.



The War Powers Resolution has been largely ignored: Clinton was not impeached for violating it multiple times, and Obama was not impeached for violating it in 2011.

Obama did not launch strikes against Syria because he did not want to: he procrastinated and hoped that refusal by the British and American lower houses could be blamed for inaction. Obama waited ten days before seeking Congressional approval whereas Trump acted within forty-eight hours. Obama avoided action because Syria was and is Iran’s deal, however much Putin showboats, and Obama wanted to seal the JCPOA.

Trump does not appear willing to tear up the JCPOA, but he is probably willing to tangle with Iran and force Teheran to choose between its bid for mastery in the Persian Gulf and the JCPOA. He seems to want to force Iran to make the first move to abrogate it.



When were Putin or Assad ever trustworthy?

I never believed that Assad ever fully surrendered his stockpile or dismantled his production capabilities: chemical weapons ensure the survival of his statelet. I believe that the Russians were aware of his duplicity but that they would not have countenanced the use of these reserves except as a last resort. I also believe that the Iranians suggested that Assad use them in Khan Sheikhoun in order to test Trump’s level of interest in the war and his resolve, as this would be preferable to shooting breaking out in the Strait of Hormuz.

Assad has yet to use Sarin again after the strike on Shayrat.



Nuclear weapons are far more destructive than chemical ones, which is why chemical weapons were banned. North Korea is led by a genocidal regime that has threatened to “preemptively” use nuclear weapons against other countries, including the U.S.

Azor...here is your response...you still do not "get it".....


Assad has yet to use Sarin again after the strike on Shayrat.


Let's see....he and Putin immediately shifted to incendiary cluster muntions...literally "raining" them across virtually all of the rebel controlled areas as a form of "punishment" for the Hama offensive.

WHY...ask yourself this single word question WHY..because Trump would not respond with TLAMs as he as did Obama both based their redlines on "CWs"....

BUT WAIT..... ICMs used against civilians is just as illegal as are CWs....AND both Trump and Obama did not state the redlines covered ICMs did they....

And you cannot influence?...then pick up the phone and let you Congressman know...anyone can influence if they try and to state no on can influence is a true cop out.....

My drumbeat on Russia influence and hacking ops has brought me into a business realm that I have not been in and it was influenced by comments here are SWJ....and what we now do does in fact impact....not publicly but in the background and that is important.....

I have my own personal "small war" in the cyber and information trenches and it is progressing nicely...and my victories are not counted in KIAs and or WIAs but in control servers taken offline...

A serious change in perceptions is needed and every small step in that direction counts...regardless of how small...

actually that is exactly why Russia is winning their non linear war..they may lose five steps while taking three forward...but they are always moving forward regardless of the amount of time to do it...Americans always want things done in a hurry.....

Off of my soap box...

BTW..CrowBat is actually correct Russia would not have intervened back in 2013...simple as that.....had in fact Obama struck Assad in 2013 FULLY grounding his capabilities of any bombing/CW use...we definitely would not be seeing Russia now in Syria..so says Lister....Hassan and Orton as well...if one listens to their public interviews.

Fighting it is useless as history is clearly on CrowBats side on this .....

Russia intervened after they detected the inability and or the non desire by Obama to engage on the Sunni side...and then sought to claim FP wise what they had been trying to do under the Communist days..expansion onto the oil/gas rich ME...

Simple straight forward Russia FP hard at work...

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat.....there were a number of reports coming out of Damascus airport of a very large explosion...anything on your end?

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...here is your response...you still do not "get it".....



Let's see....he and Putin immediately shifted to incendiary cluster muntions...literally "raining" them across virtually all of the rebel controlled areas as a form of "punishment" for the Hama offensive.

WHY...ask yourself this single word question WHY..because Trump would not respond with TLAMs as he as did Obama both based their redlines on "CWs"....

BUT WAIT..... ICMs used against civilians is just as illegal as are CWs....AND both Trump and Obama did not state the redlines covered ICMs did they....

And you cannot influence?...then pick up the phone and let you Congressman know...anyone can influence if they try and to state no on can influence is a true cop out.....

My drumbeat on Russia influence and hacking ops has brought me into a business realm that I have not been in and it was influenced by comments here are SWJ....and what we now do does in fact impact....not publicly but in the background and that is important.....

I have my own personal "small war" in the cyber and information trenches and it is progressing nicely...and my victories are not counted in KIAs and or WIAs but in control servers taken offline...

A serious change in perceptions is needed and every small step in that direction counts...regardless of how small...

actually that is exactly why Russia is winning their non linear war..they may lose five steps while taking three forward...but they are always moving forward regardless of the amount of time to do it...Americans always want things done in a hurry.....

Off of my soap box...

BTW..CrowBat is actually correct Russia would not have intervened back in 2013...simple as that.....had in fact Obama struck Assad in 2013 FULLY grounding his capabilities of any bombing/CW use...we definitely would not be seeing Russia now in Syria..so says Lister....Hassan and Orton as well...if one listens to their public interviews.

Fighting it is useless as history is clearly on CrowBats side on this .....

Russia intervened after they detected the inability and or the non desire by Obama to engage on the Sunni side...and then sought to claim FP wise what they had been trying to do under the Communist days..expansion onto the oil/gas rich ME...

Simple straight forward Russia FP hard at work...

Not a single word from the Trump WH......WHY because after his "Wag the Dog moment"...he lost his courage to respond....even verbally...

Aftermath of pro-#Assad strikes killing 6, injuring 35 in IDP camp in S #Idlib Province

http://eaworldview.com/2017/04/syria-daily-turkey-hits-kurdish-ypg-militia-in-northeast/#idlib#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...I find building timelines a great benefit....

Timeline Russian support and involvement with Assad say from 2000 until say 2015.

Then timeline Russian actions from say 2015 until APR 2017...THEN parallel US Presidential actions against that timeline....

Then you will see that Putin used the US Presidential election phase to actually "freeze" any US actions in countering Russia in Syria BECAUSE he knew how Obama would react based on his non action in 2013 and knew he was risk adverse and he knew the incoming President would do nothing in the first 100 days....then you will fully understand what CrowBat and myself have been saying...had Obama taken forceful actions in Syria in 2013 Russia would not have acted in support to Assad...it really is that simple..

Putin had a window of opportunity and took it...that window was simply not there in 2013....

NOW what is a really interesting timeline ...actually timeline the Russian influence and cyber operations being conducted in the US both before and during the election phase against the Russian Syrian actions timeline.....some say this influence operation actually started in mid 2014....

I challenge anyone here to tell me that those two timelines do not match ...they do and actually they parallel each other... a solid indicator that one was supporting the other as Putin definitely knew Clinton would respond to him in Syria and he knew what he "had in Trump"....
a non action individual who wanted to "do a deal with him at any cost"....

A lot of commenters comment here without taking the time to create a timeline of anything and it does take time to build a fairly accurate timeline before posting...I do this with every project at my company.......it helps one stay focused...

If one takes the 5Ws and 1H method to timeline..you have the answer facing you whether you like it are not....Who..What...Where...When..How and the critical one after all of these.... the WHY?

If you cannot answer the Why then you have a hole somewhere in the timeline....

[OUTLAW 09]

Why do I say build timelines.....

If you take Russian/Assad air strikes over the last say two weeks..you would actually be amazed to see that on average every 12 hours there is either a Russian and or Assad air strike on a hospital and or IDP camp...

And what is the western response to this as actually bombing hospitals is both a war crime and an IHL violation....

AND out of the Trump WH.....silence...nothing...nada..nichts.....

Actually the Trump response is far worse than Obama's because he has you looking at his bluff's on NK...NAFTA....grand
"tax cuts"... and "fake news"...at least on occasions the Obama WH would respond and they definitely did not have you looking at NAFTA...or "fake news"...

Example:

1. A Trump "lost" US aircraft carrier strike force finally makes it towards Korea
2. U.S. test fires ICBM in message to North Korea
3. Trump calls the entire 100 person Senate to WH for a NK briefing that could have been held in the Senate....

Served to do exactly what "impress NK" which it did not BUT WAIT...he definitely was trying to "bluff and impress his voters on this 100 days of great achievements"....

So on all of this "100 day thingy"...he could have said something anything on Russian incendiary cluster munitions dropping on civilians..BUT he did not...OR that Russia should stop bombing hospitals...at least the Obama WH would say that...

SO exactly what is the Trump FP at almost 100 days?....Remember SWJ does have a thread on this that virtually no one posted anything on....

BTW...I am not the only one seeing this connection between hype/bluff and his "100 day thingy"...

Max Boot
✔
@MaxBoot
From tax-cut press release to N Korea briefing for Senate, admin is desperate to create events this week to distract from 100-day failures.

But here is actually Trump's core problem....if one decides as an adult to ride a child's rocking horse...one gets a lot of "motion" going back and forth, but no "actual forward movement"...and right now Trump is all about "motion" using "motion" to mask failure at doing anything he has stated he was going to do.....

And his voters are lapping it up as "success".....so I guess in the end "motion" can be a FP if one is hard pressed for a FP...

WOW....'Dog and Pony" show I have not heard that since countless briefings in Baghdad on why the AQI was collapsing in Iraq in 2006....

Sen. Duckworth tells @CNN that the NK briefing felt like "a dog-and-pony show...I didn't learn anything I couldn't have read in a newspaper"
And she is a wounded Iraqi war vet....

BUT WAIT...maybe this was because Trump tweets that basically ALL US MSM produces is "fake news" so maybe his briefings are not "fake news"...

What a total farce of a current WH FP on anything including Syria...

[OUTLAW 09]

Not a single comment from any western leader...from UNSC and or EU....

Relief forces from the @SyriaCivilDef & @Violet_org1 are still searching for victims in the rubble of the "University Hospital" S of #Idlib.

"I love the smell of a war crime in the morning." -by @DarthPutinKGB

Russian overnight air strikes destroyed the Dayr ash Sharqi hospital.

Notice Trump could comment but he does not Why?.."they are Muslims and Syrians on top of it"...he was able to side step that thought on his TLAM strike by referring to "those beautiful babies".....thus staying in line with his voter base and his Muslim travel ban...

BUT WAIT...his WH staff did claim that in his "100 days thingy" his grand Syrian strategy is working...where IMHO I am not sure?

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat.....there were a number of reports coming out of Damascus airport of a very large explosion...anything on your end?

Well we have the answer....

BREAKING: Israeli fighter jets strike positions near #Damascus airport Thursday morning

BUT WAIT...did not the Russian MoD state this week that Syria is now under a complete Russian AA umbrella?

Seems the IDF did not hear about that statement....or the Russian AA umbrella has some really BIG holes in it?

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor..so are you now finally willing to admit that the Trump "Wag the Dog moment" is not just some "fake news theory"?

For Trump the WTD is not just a moment but a day to day reality...just as he stated he would go it alone in preemptively attacking NK......

Sure is all I can say....

And "all those beautiful babies" are still being killed daily...just not by CWs...

BTW...this is the perfect example of just how stupid this Trump WH truly is.....and actually goes to the Trump statement in a recent interview that he does not read.....

I seriously doubt Trump and his WH merry band of brothers truly realize if NAFTA is cancelled then the 80s era Reagan Canada-US Free Trade Agreement AUTOMATICALLY kicks back in and that will in the end damage 12,000,000 US workers....

So if they are so uninformed about US signed trade treaties how do we expect them to be any better in ME affairs?

It is another 12 hours and another Russian air strike on a hospital ...a war crime and the Trump Wh is concerned about their "100 day thingy image?

BreakingFootage
The underground hospital of #Maarzita is a burning inferno after #Kremlin regime air strikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nhLb6ENaCk#

Russians and Assad are systematically and deliberately targeting hospitals and civilian facilities ..and the Trump grand strategy for Syria is what exactly again...oh...a press release in honor of what he has done in the first 100 days...wow.....

AND American creditability is what these days????

[OUTLAW 09]

So we are back into active ground combat in both Iraq and Syria...BUT WAS IT not Trump himself who stated I was not for the Iraqi war after being for the Iraq war...well he is back for the war...but this time he did not say anything as he turned that over to the military to order......so if it goes badly...it is the fault of the Generals not me......

Trump gives Pentagon power to reset Iraq, Syria troop limits
http://reut.rs/2pnG12H

[CrowBat]

I do follow CrowBat quite closely, and we agree on much. However, CrowBat believes that an American intervention in Syria, whether in 2013 or 2016, would have gone unchallenged by either Russia or Iran, and that they would have stood aside.Sorry: you misunderstood something - and then massively.

I was never a proponent of any kind of foreign military interventions in Syria: I'm strictly against any kind of such adventures - whether run by the USA, or by anybody else (with 'anybody else' including Iran, Turkey, Russia, Qatar etc.).

On the contrary, I was always a proponent of either an 'indirect approach' or 'keeping everybody out' - and preferably a combination of the two.

Military-wise, this would combine an aerial blockade of Syria (perhaps a land-blockade too; whatever would be the case, such an operation would aim to interrupt the Iranian air-bridge, and also - at that time - prevent any kind of a Russian military intervention), with a complete blockade of the flow of supplies for Wahhabists in Syria from various of (supposed) US 'allies' in the Gulf (primarily Qatar and Kuwait). I've explained this nicely in this interview to David Axe of War is Boring, back in 2013: Blockading Syria by Air (http://warisboring.com/blockading-syria-by-air/).

(What eventually happened was exactly the opposite: Obama decided that the Syrian Civil War is not a US problem, and then left the Iranians do whatever they like; in this fashion, the USA significantly bolstered the spread of the Daesh - including its destruction of insurgency in NE Syria, but especially its 'spill back' into Iraq; this necessitated the DC letting the IRGC dominate Iraq, and then the DC left the Pentagon - as ill-informed about Syria as it always was - to successfully block the CIA's operations in support of Syrian insurgents, and instead pick - against US laws - the terrorist organization PKK as it's 'most reliable ally vs Daesh'. I.e. the DC did its best to confirm that the 'USA' stands for the 'United States of Absurdities'.)

Our discussion about what would Putin do in the case of an US military intervention since the Russian military intervention was, from my POV, a purely academic exercise. In this regards, I see the lack of Russian reaction to the US TLAM-strike on Shayrat (not to talk about a complete lack of Russian reaction to all the Israeli air strikes) as a confirmation of my standpoint: Putler is in no condition to do anything at all. And: regardless of being a demagogue of worst sort, he's not as crazy as to risk a direct military confrontation with the USA.

He's already fighting his WWIII against the West - though 'by other means'.


... and only a fraction of the civilian casualties are caused by airpowerI would love to see any kind of reliable statistics in this regards.

It's perfectly possible that the issue has a rather suggestive background, but majority of Syrian refugees I happened to meet and talk over the last two years cited 'air strikes' - as the reason they fled, and the reason for most of their dead relatives. The way their kids react alone at the sound of the engine of one of several helicopters operated by emergency-services in this part of Syria (not to talk about reaction of the same kids to the sounds of Austrian Luftstreitkrfte's Eurofighters occasionally passing by), tends to lend quite some weight to such conclusions.

[davidbfpo]

A short, seven minute video from the NYT on the CW stroke on Khan Sheikhoun; it mixes open source info, yes with drone footage and the public statements by Russia & Syria.
Link:https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000005063944/syria-chemical-attack-russia.html?emc=edit_mbe_20170427&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=67232673&te=1

Copied to the OSINT thread as an example what can be done.

Note the NYT does not attribute responsibility for the CW strike.

[CrowBat]

CrowBat, perhaps this (below) is the source of the erroneous report that the SyAAF dispersed to Russian-protected airbases?

Syria Situation Report (April 14-20): http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/April%2020EDITS%20COT.pdf
Most likely - yes.

Though if so, it only shows how poor is the ELINT collected by the US military in Syria.

[OUTLAW 09]

Unusual video...posted by Assad forces of their own gun technical being hit by a rebel ATGM....

Leaked video from #Assad-forces: Pickup hit by ATMG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pny07Cpl2jU#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: Turkish artillery shelling has killed 9 #YPG fighters west of #Tall_Abyad.

TSK artillery & tank shelling across border on villages west of Tell Abyad

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Naval Express...is one less ship today and it was an expensive spy ship....

Russia|n spy ship "Liman" (Black Sea Fleet) sunk on its way to #Syria after collision near Bosphorus. 78 man crew rescued.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39734998#

How can a spy ship jammed full of electronic equipment get lost in bad weather and hit another ship...appears they hade no ship to ship radar?????

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor..so are you now finally willing to admit that the Trump "Wag the Dog moment" is not just some "fake news theory"?

For Trump the WTD is not just a moment but a day to day reality...just as he stated he would go it alone in preemptively attacking NK......

Sure is all I can say....

And "all those beautiful babies" are still being killed daily...just not by CWs...

BTW...this is the perfect example of just how stupid this Trump WH truly is.....and actually goes to the Trump statement in a recent interview that he does not read.....

I seriously doubt Trump and his WH merry band of brothers truly realize if NAFTA is cancelled then the 80s era Reagan Canada-US Free Trade Agreement AUTOMATICALLY kicks back in and that will in the end damage 12,000,000 US workers....

So if they are so uninformed about US signed trade treaties how do we expect them to be any better in ME affairs?

It is another 12 hours and another Russian air strike on a hospital ...a war crime and the Trump Wh is concerned about their "100 day thingy image?

BreakingFootage
The underground hospital of #Maarzita is a burning inferno after #Kremlin regime air strikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nhLb6ENaCk#

Russians and Assad are systematically and deliberately targeting hospitals and civilian facilities ..and the Trump grand strategy for Syria is what exactly again...oh...a press release in honor of what he has done in the first 100 days...wow.....

AND American creditability is what these days????

More proof that when it comes to US FP by this Trump WH....one simply cannot really believe a single word...comment and or statement....out of Trump and or anyone else it seems....

Yesterday Trump WH stated he had called Canada and Mexico....today his tweets state THEY had called him....

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump
I received calls from the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada asking to renegotiate NAFTA rather than terminate. I agreed..

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump
...subject to the fact that if we do not reach a fair deal for all, we will then terminate NAFTA. Relationships are good-deal very possible!

American creditability is now at virtually BELOW ZERO....if that possible

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Naval Express...is one less ship today and it was an expensive spy ship....

Russia|n spy ship "Liman" (Black Sea Fleet) sunk on its way to #Syria after collision near Bosphorus. 78 man crew rescued.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39734998#

How can a spy ship jammed full of electronic equipment get lost in bad weather and hit another ship...appears they hade no ship to ship radar?????

Not a good day for the Russian MoD....pilot crashes a new MIG 35 and their spy ship gets sunk by a ship full of cattle....

A livestock vessel in the Black Sea has just done more than the entire Western world to stop Russia's war crimes in Syria.

Correction..there was no cattle in the ship.....

It takes 8800 sheep to sink a Russian Navy intelligence ship. Quite an ammo.

[OUTLAW 09]

8 more #YPG fighters were killed by Turkish artillery strikes. 17 #YPG fighters were killed west of #Tall_Abyad so far today

[OUTLAW 09]

Large Turkish-backed Ahrar Al-Sharqiyah convoy on the way towards #Tall_Abyad.

[OUTLAW 09]

More proof that when it comes to US FP by this Trump WH....one simply cannot really believe a single word...comment and or statement....out of Trump and or anyone else it seems....

Yesterday Trump WH stated he had called Canada and Mexico....today his tweets state THEY had called him....

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump
I received calls from the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada asking to renegotiate NAFTA rather than terminate. I agreed..

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
#@realDonaldTrump
...subject to the fact that if we do not reach a fair deal for all, we will then terminate NAFTA. Relationships are good-deal very possible!

American creditability is now at virtually BELOW ZERO....if that possible

They do not even understand the USG security clearance system and or process...when questioned about why their first NSA had a security clearance and is now under investigation they blame Obama...not knowing that when you are out of government for two years there is no longer a valid clearance in place...

Fox News‏
Verified account
#
@FoxNews
.@PressSec: "We trust that when you are cleared the first time... that your background check is still clear."

Simply a lie.....This is affirmatively false. Everyone has 5 year periodic re-investigation and there is *always* re-investigation after being out of access.

[Azor]

Sorry: you misunderstood something - and then massively. I was never a proponent of any kind of foreign military interventions in Syria…

I never claimed that you were an advocate for a U.S. military intervention, but that you believed that such intervention would have gone unchallenged. You claimed (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=197301&postcount=1796)that beyond the relatively small air defense bubbles…


Russians wouldn't dare challenging a NFZ. They would paint with SAM-radars, threaten, boast, complain, cry, offend, and lie, like they always do. And that's all.


Military-wise, this would combine an aerial blockade of Syria (perhaps a land-blockade too; whatever would be the case, such an operation would aim to interrupt the Iranian air-bridge, and also - at that time - prevent any kind of a Russian military intervention), with a complete blockade of the flow of supplies for Wahhabists [sic?] in Syria from various of (supposed) US 'allies' in the Gulf (primarily Qatar and Kuwait).

As I have asserted to both you and Outlaw, I doubt that the U.S. could have effected a blockade of Syria in 2013 or now, which incidentally would be an act of war. See here:


http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=197141&postcount=1677

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=197280&postcount=1781


I believe that the Russians would merely ignore a blockade and dare the U.S. to fire upon them, and that the Iranians would disguise their air-bridge as civilian air traffic and again dare the U.S. to fire. Neither Turkey, Iraq nor Lebanon can control their borders in the first place it seems, to say nothing of the lack of political will in Iraq and Lebanon to do so in opposition to Iran. What of Syria’s extensive coastline, the Russian base at Tartus and Russia’s cozy relations with nearby Cyprus?


Our discussion about what would Putin do in the case of an US military intervention since the Russian military intervention was, from my POV, a purely academic exercise. In this regards, I see the lack of Russian reaction to the US TLAM-strike on Shayrat (not to talk about a complete lack of Russian reaction to all the Israeli air strikes) as a confirmation of my standpoint: Putler is in no condition to do anything at all. And: regardless of being a demagogue of worst sort, he's not as crazy as to risk a direct military confrontation with the USA. He's already fighting his WWIII against the West - though 'by other means'.

Come now, CrowBat; don’t be disingenuous.

You know perfectly well that the TLAM strike on Shayrat was a wise skirmish for Russia to avoid, and that it did not materially threaten Russia’s interests in Syria, despite the sting of public humiliation.

You are also aware of the different intentions in Moscow and Teheran, despite their alliance of convenience. No serious Kremlinologist has suggested that Putin is supportive of Assad using chemical weapons or Hezbollah rearming to threaten northern Israel. On the contrary, I believe that Putin welcomes the slaps on the wrist delivered from the air.

On February 26, 2014, a Russian analyst that I have great respect for replied to my questions about whether Russia would invade Ukraine and whether a “limited action” in the Donets Basin (before I began referring to it as Donbas) and Crimea were possible. He replied:


Putin has no military option…I think people should avoid believing that Putin is thinking about an Ossetia style option.

The rest, of course, is history. I have withheld his name and he ceased correspondence, but my respect remains.

My point, which seems to be misunderstood, is not that Putin would militarily confront the U.S., but that he would dare it to confront him. I can assure you that European NATO members would be aghast at the sight of the U.S. firing on Russian aircraft, and that the U.S. would find itself disliked and isolated.


I would love to see any kind of reliable statistics in this regards.

See here: https://orbi.ulg.ac.be/bitstream/2268/186326/1/Guha-Sapir%20et%20al,%20Civilian%20deaths%20from%20weap ons%20used%20in%20the%20Syrian%20conflict%20-%202015.pdf

Artillery or “ground-based fires” has been the “king of war” since 1914.

Few victims of shelling hear the “Dear ___” with their name on it arcing through the air, let alone survive to tell the tale. Aircraft engines are of course terrifying to civilians who survive war. My grandmother remains terrified of trains and of airliners passing overhead, despite the fact that what threatened her and killed her loved ones were bullets, overwork and starvation.

[Azor]

Most likely - yes.

Though if so, it only shows how poor is the ELINT collected by the US military in Syria.

Or Washington is continuing to shame Moscow by claiming that it is defending Assad's use of chemical weapons by protecting the SyAAF.

Why not play Moscow's PR game that Obama refused to enjoin?

[OUTLAW 09]

I never claimed that you were an advocate for a U.S. military intervention, but that you believed that such intervention would have gone unchallenged. You claimed (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=197301&postcount=1796)that beyond the relatively small air defense bubbles…





As I have asserted to both you and Outlaw, I doubt that the U.S. could have effected a blockade of Syria in 2013 or now, which incidentally would be an act of war. See here:


http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=197141&postcount=1677

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=197280&postcount=1781


I believe that the Russians would merely ignore a blockade and dare the U.S. to fire upon them, and that the Iranians would disguise their air-bridge as civilian air traffic and again dare the U.S. to fire. Neither Turkey, Iraq nor Lebanon can control their borders in the first place it seems, to say nothing of the lack of political will in Iraq and Lebanon to do so in opposition to Iran. What of Syria’s extensive coastline, the Russian base at Tartus and Russia’s cozy relations with nearby Cyprus?



Come now, CrowBat; don’t be disingenuous.

You know perfectly well that the TLAM strike on Shayrat was a wise skirmish for Russia to avoid, and that it did not materially threaten Russia’s interests in Syria, despite the sting of public humiliation.

You are also aware of the different intentions in Moscow and Teheran, despite their alliance of convenience. No serious Kremlinologist has suggested that Putin is supportive of Assad using chemical weapons or Hezbollah rearming to threaten northern Israel. On the contrary, I believe that Putin welcomes the slaps on the wrist delivered from the air.

On February 26, 2014, a Russian analyst that I have great respect for replied to my questions about whether Russia would invade Ukraine and whether a “limited action” in the Donets Basin (before I began referring to it as Donbas) and Crimea were possible. He replied:



The rest, of course, is history. I have withheld his name and he ceased correspondence, but my respect remains.

My point, which seems to be misunderstood, is not that Putin would militarily confront the U.S., but that he would dare it to confront him. I can assure you that European NATO members would be aghast at the sight of the U.S. firing on Russian aircraft, and that the U.S. would find itself disliked and isolated.



See here: https://orbi.ulg.ac.be/bitstream/2268/186326/1/Guha-Sapir%20et%20al,%20Civilian%20deaths%20from%20weap ons%20used%20in%20the%20Syrian%20conflict%20-%202015.pdf

Artillery or “ground-based fires” has been the “king of war” since 1914.

Few victims of shelling hear the “Dear ___” with their name on it arcing through the air, let alone survive to tell the tale. Aircraft engines are of course terrifying to civilians who survive war. My grandmother remains terrified of trains and of airliners passing overhead, despite the fact that what threatened her and killed her loved ones were bullets, overwork and starvation.

Shelling's and or Grads have never created anywhere close to the number of refugees and IDP's caused by air strikes especially the barrel bombs...cluster munitions...incendiary cluster munitions and bunker busters....AND then the sheer number recently of 500lb thermobaric bombs coming down like rain....

[OUTLAW 09]

Not a good day for the Russian MoD....pilot crashes a new MIG 35 and their spy ship gets sunk by a ship full of cattle....

A livestock vessel in the Black Sea has just done more than the entire Western world to stop Russia's war crimes in Syria.

Correction..there was no cattle in the ship.....

It takes 8800 sheep to sink a Russian Navy intelligence ship. Quite an ammo.

Turkish RUMINT

Asuming the sinking of the Russian spy ship was really an MIT (Turkish intel) top secret op -- and its covername was Operation BAAAAAAA.

[Azor]

Outlaw,

RE: Cluster Munitions and Incendiary Weapons

The U.S. produces and uses cluster munitions, and neither it nor allies Israel and Saudi Arabia - which have used cluster munitions in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen - are signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. In addition, neither the U.S. nor Israel are signatories to the Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the use of Incendiary Weapons.

According to the U.S. State Dept. in 2008:


Cluster munitions are available for use by every combat aircraft in the U.S. inventory, they are integral to every Army or Marine maneuver element and in some cases constitute up to 50 percent of tactical indirect fire support. U.S. forces simply cannot fight by design or by doctrine without holding out at least the possibility of using cluster munitions.


CrowBat is actually correct Russia would not have intervened back in 2013...simple as that...had in fact Obama struck Assad in 2013 FULLY grounding his capabilities of any bombing/CW use...we definitely would not be seeing Russia now in Syria…so says Lister...Hassan and Orton as well...if one listens to their public interviews.

Nyet. You have no way of knowing how Putin would have proceeded had Obama launched a TLAM strike in 2013. Arguably, Obama would have done nothing after delivering a slap on the wrist so long as Assad demurred from using Sarin again.


Russia intervened after they detected the inability and or the non-desire by Obama to engage on the Sunni side...

Nyet. Russia intervened when Assad was in danger of being defeated by the rebels in 2015.


…you will fully understand what CrowBat and myself have been saying...had Obama taken forceful actions in Syria in 2013 Russia would not have acted in support to Assad...it really is that simple…

Nyet. Had Obama launched a punitive airstrike in 2013, Putin would have intervened earlier. The U.S. was in no position to impose aerial supremacy and/or a blockade before the Russians could establish themselves. Moreover, I do not see U.S. pilots shooting down Russian aircraft for violating a no-fly zone.


... a solid indicator that one was supporting the other as Putin definitely knew Clinton would respond to him in Syria…

Clinton would have likely been more confrontational, but the fact that Putin would rather avoid confrontation if possible does not suggest that he would countenance direct U.S. intervention against Assad.

Unfortunately, both you and CrowBat seem to be applying binary choices to this situation when it is more an issue of nuances and tweaks. That is the same fallacy that proponents of a complete withdrawal from Syria are making.

Both of you will have to admit that to achieve your preferences will require a major and long-term U.S. commitment in and to Syria, well above and beyond the effort made to protect the KAR in Iraq. Regime change is the least of it. We are talking about state-building, peacekeeping and policing on the ground, economic reconstruction, de-radicalization, inter-sectarian and ethnic integration, truth and reconciliation and probably the demarcation of new international boundaries.

[Azor]

First a horde of wild boars overrun a Daesh position and kill several terrorists. Now, seafaring sheep have sunk a Russian spy ship. We need to deploy them off of King's Bay, Georgia...

[CrowBat]

I never claimed that you were an advocate for a U.S. military intervention, but that you believed that such intervention would have gone unchallenged.Ah that. Yes, and I remain at that standpoint.

There is no way the Russians would 'merely ignore a blockade: they would never do that.

The principle of Putlerist style of war is that of demonstrating military power, but doing nothing that might risk an open military confrontation. Nobody else is more aware of all the PRBS about the Russian military, but Putler himself.

Point is: Putler is not seeking a military confrontation. He's seeking to avoid one. His idiotic pilots overflying USN's destroyers at low altitude is little else but a BS-itting bravado: they know better than anybody else, they couldn't get near that warship in any kind of a serious conflict scenario.

But that's it. Putin needs no war. War is bad for business. Moreover, bribing East European demagogues and various chauvinists in the EU, forging elections in the USA, France, Germany etc. works so far better - and is a lot cheaper too.

I do not understand how comes so many of 'you' are all too blind to see this...?

(And indeed, I am certainly going to get white-mad should anybody now come to explain me about 'Supermoderne Russische Armee' and similar BS. Keep that for such clowns like Harald Kujat & Co KG GesmbH, please. As if there is any necessity to discuss this any more... hell the Russians TODAY can't operate their FAC in Syria in the way the US military did back during the Korean War... their super-turbo Sukhois have NOW got the CCIP nav/attack systems comparable with those of the F-16A from 1976... and their 10 satellites in the orbit, and net-centric warfare, and 80 UAVs in Syria and whatever else aren't worth talking about... they threw themelves harum scarum into an adventure in Syria precisely because they were sure the USA wouldn't go there under any conditions - and now, they have no clue how to get out of there...)


Neither Turkey, Iraq nor Lebanon can control their borders in the first place it seems, to say nothing of the lack of political will in Iraq and Lebanon to do so in opposition to Iran.Meh... Turkey can, and very much indeed. Iraq can't - but this is the case 'only' since the Daesh's spill-over into Iraq of 2014. Thank you Oblabla.

And - and various international laws and regulations by side (heh, the Pentagon can't care less if it's violating the US law that strictly prohibits cooperation with the PKK...) - since when was Lebanon a problem for anybody who wants to pass by, please?


What of Syria’s extensive coastline, the Russian base at Tartus and Russia’s cozy relations with nearby Cyprus?Please Azor, get serious: a 'military base' of one power on some foreign soil is de-facto a colony of sort. A place where there are serious and active military facilities, where there is a military activity, where there is military and civilian housing, military police etc. Hell, every decent US military base abroad has got its own McDonald's or Burger King too.

Tartous was no Russian base until September 2015. The Russians had some storage depot and quasi 'their own' 200-300 metres of the docks, plus four guards for that. Even today, it's no serious facility: many of Russian ships hauling supplies for Hmmemm and elsewhere are unloading in Lattakia instead: it's closer to the airbase, and can do its business much quicker.

And Russia's relations with Cyprus were as 'cozy' - until the Russians completely ruined the Cypriot financial system and indebted the country for 100 years in advance. Ever since, even the staunchest Greek-Cypriot chauvinists and Putler-lovers have shut up. Enough said.

Bottom line: sorry, you're trying to discuss something that makes no sense discussing. That's kid stuff. Putler went to Syria because he was sure Oblabla wouldn't. Indeed, because the Iranians told them that Oblabla promised Tehran he wouldn't. And Iranians could do so because Oblabla told them so.

But you're day-dreaming about Russians doing what in the case of a US military intervention in Syria...?

All they could do in such a case would be to make their choice shall they watch it, live - via CNN or the RT.

[CrowBat]

What was the actual reason I came here this evening...?

Ah yes... here comes the next glorious act of the mighty, highly professional and endlessly estimated US military.

The pooh CENTCOM-boys can't stop whining about bad, bad, oh-so-bad Turks smashing their terrorist friends of the PKK: US: Turkey gave about 20 minutes notice before Syria strikes (https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-turkey-gave-less-1-hour-notice-syria-180751807--politics.html)

Oh boy, how could they...?

The strike obviously endangered US troops cooperating directly with the PKK. Then, it's not as if professional military units deployed in the field - like US troops 'not' deployed in northern Syria (because, at least officially, the USA still have 'no boots on the ground' there) - should be able of moving out at 5-15 minutes notice. Any time. Isn't it?

Well, the very same Turkish troops declared 'incompetent' by the very same CENTCOM, are drilled to do so within 10 minutes.

So, when does the CENTCOM as next? Sends its proud and distinguished officers to demonstratively show themselves in the public together with worst sort of PKK's terrorists (https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/857221256944513025)... :rolleyes:

Hand on heart: what does the CENTCOM expect? The Turks to provide a 24-hours advance warning so the USA can inform the PKK terrorists that are fighting Turkey since 30+ years on time...?

****

Another 'pearl' about that affair: most of PKK/PYDYPG/YPJ units hit by Turks in this attack were those from the Efrin enclave.

Hey CENTCOM: you ever consult the map of the area you're talking about?

I know: things can get damn complex in the Middle East. But, any clue where is Efrin?

That's the north-western corner of Syria. The Kurds there are isolated from the outside world since five years: well, until they made friends with Assadists and the Russians. And, as firm as they always are, in the meantime they declared themselves the SDF - i.e. 'US supported'.

Now, sure: they never got an ounce of any kind of US support (well, not until now), nor ever fought the Daesh as a part of the SDF. But hey: they're Marxist terrorists of the PKK, which means they know everything better. It thus doesn't matter if for the last five years they were attacking the FSyA in the Azaz area (don't forget them parading 30+ bodies of Syrian revolutionaries KIA last year, 'Daesh-style', on the streets of Efrin) or ethnically cleansed 45,000 Arabs out of Tel Rifa'at - before looting that town to the last screw they were able to get out of that place.

And when they've got nothing better to do then they fight Turkey - the very same NATO-ally of the USA, from which soil the USA are running operations in support of the PKK - and that in a direct violation of US laws prohibiting any kind of cooperation with the PKK, because this is designated a terrorist organization.

Some lovely allies there, so much is sure.

But, heh, that's what one gets when the (quasi) democratically elected civilian administration completely loses the control of the Pentagon, and then the Department of Defence runs the US foreign policy - instead of the State Department (which, BTW, could be against certain laws and regulations in the USA... or couldn't it...? Hm... who can say nowadays....). This, of course, 'never happened'. Then, this is impossible to happen in the 'craddle of democracy'. Therefore, a process that began already under Oblabla, and is nowadays a tragic reality - even more so considering the Trump admin failed to appoint 47 positions under Mattis (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/446201/donald-trump-administration-key-government-positions-still-unfilled) - 'never happened'.

Wonderful.

What a surprise then, when one reads stories of this kind:
Right now the Department of Defense can't even keep track of where a carrier is or where it is headed (https://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/all-on-me-us-admiral-takes-blame-in-carrier-to-n-korea-fiasco/)

[CrowBat]

BTW No. 2...

Reading about this morning's Israeli air strike on Damascus IAP - which seems to have smashed three Iranian airliners hauling IRGC's jihadists and their arms to Syria... reminded me to the following article, related to the last-month's Israeli air strike on one of best-protected parts of Syria still held by Assadists: Israel Destroyed Dozens of Hezbollah-bound Missiles in Last Syria Raid, Officer Says (http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.785674)

The Israel Air Force destroyed around 100 Syrian missiles in its attack last month on weapons in Syria − many of which were due to be delivered to Hezbollah, a senior Israeli officer said Tuesday.

The officer, however, did not give details on the kind of missiles that were destroyed.

The episode marked a rare admission that Israel had taken military action in Syria, and the officer said the Israel Defense Forces had acted “not once” in similar situations.

Last month’s attack triggered an immediate retaliation by the Assad regime, which fired SA-5 surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli planes, marking a stark change in Syrian policy. None of the Israeli jets were damaged.
...

...makes me wonder where are the USAF's champions of SEAD/DEAD (https://warontherocks.com/2016/10/political-airpower-part-i-say-no-to-the-no-fly-zone/) now, to declare such operations for 'impossible', or at least 'too dangerous'...?

I'll spend the rest of this evening waiting for some of my contacts in the DC to explain me that these are the Israelis, and they can walk on the water...

[Azor]

Yes, and I remain at that standpoint. There is no way the Russians would 'merely ignore a blockade: they would never do that.

It is stubborn and wishful thinking. A unilateral blockade against a client state of theirs?

Russian aircraft and vessels already engage in dangerous maneuvers in international airspace and on the high seas, and ignore NATO air defense identification zones and even sovereign airspace. Yet there has not been so much as a radar lock-on in response.

Moreover, the blockade would be largely unenforced as it would take time for the U.S. to assemble and deploy the assets necessary to enforce it, giving Russia lead time to ignore it.

These challenges are of course separate from any Iranian resistance, which would probably be kinetic and deniable, with various Shia militias operating anti-aircraft weaponry.

Such a NFZ would have about as much teeth as China’s ADIZ in the East China Sea.

Remember how the West dealt with Stalin's blockade of West Berlin in 1948-1949[/URL]? Who won that round? Remember the Cuban Crisis? Even then the U.S. was not settled on how to deal with Soviet blockade runners, despite the much higher stakes and the fact that the crisis was Soviet-instigated.

More recently:


The NFZ in northern Iraq required the addition of a No-Drive Zone
Operation Allied Force nearly failed to coerce Serb forces to retreat from Kosovo, and a ground invasion was being considered before Belgrade backed down
The NFZ in Libya was enhanced with airstrikes on ground targets, arms to the rebels and the deployment of Qatari special forces



Point is: Putler is not seeking a military confrontation. He's seeking to avoid one.

He took action in Georgia and Ukraine, despite anxieties over NATO’s response, and intervened in Syria despite the fact that the U.S. was already operating there.


But that's it. Putin needs no war. War is bad for business. Moreover, bribing East European demagogues and various chauvinists in the EU, forging elections in the USA, France, Germany etc. works so far better - and is a lot cheaper too.

Putin doesn’t want another humiliation either, and I do believe that Putin would sacrifice Russian servicemen to U.S. air-to-air missiles if it would tarnish the U.S. as a rogue aggressor in the eyes of its NATO and EU allies. How he dealt with the Su-24 shootdown is instructive here, although that occurred in sovereign Turkish airspace, not a unilaterally imposed no-fly zone in airspace to which Russia was invited to fly.

In Putin’s mind, his use of soft power in Western elections is a response to the Color Revolutions in the former Soviet republics and Serbia, as well as unrest in Russia, all of which he believes is orchestrated by the West. Nor is he far off the mark, as there was an element in the Washington during the Clinton and Bush administrations that coveted Ukraine and Central Asia, and Brussels has more recently been seeking to include Ukraine, Moldova and even Belarus, which would shatter the Moscow-led CIS/CSTO/EAEU integration project.

In addition, to the south and east, Beijing is slowly encroaching on the former Soviet republics in Central Asia, and in particular Kazakhstan, the jewel in the crown. Russia has always been an integration project, and Putin believes that it is being both contained and rolled back by rival projects to the west and the east. Such is the back and forth of the steppes.


...they threw themelves harum scarum into an adventure in Syria precisely because they were sure the USA wouldn't go there under any conditions - and now, they have no clue how to get out of there...

Putin wanted the adventure for the sake of prestige, to spoil U.S. intentions and to provide his ramshackle military with combat experience. His objectives have largely been achieved, and Khamenei was content to allow Putin to showboat in order to avoid sparking opposition to the JCPOA; Obama colluded with Khamenei in this regard. Why would Putin want out? What he doesn’t want is to commit major ground forces and face a hostile population and guerrilla warfare.


Meh...Turkey can, and very much indeed.

So you are supporting the Russian and Syrian narrative that Turkey deliberately allowed Daesh fighters and supporters to criss-cross its border with Syria?


Please Azor, get serious: a 'military base' of one power on some foreign soil is de-facto a colony of sort. A place where there are serious and active military facilities, where there is a military activity, where there is military and civilian housing, military police etc. Hell, every decent US military base abroad has got its own McDonald's or Burger King too. Tartous was no Russian base until September 2015. The Russians had some storage depot and quasi 'their own' 200-300 metres of the docks, plus four guards for that. Even today, it's no serious facility: many of Russian ships hauling supplies for Hmmemm and elsewhere are unloading in Lattakia instead: it's closer to the airbase, and can do its business much quicker.

So what happens during a U.S. naval blockade when the Syrian express sails for Tartus? The USN assets in the Eastern Mediterranean would probably be busy with swarms of Iranian “civilian” craft running the blockade.

Like it or not, U.S. grand strategy does not revolve around the Free Syrian Army. By the way, while the PYD works to gradually and quietly to establish a one-party homogeneous Kurdish state in northern Syria, I wonder what the AKP is up to within the FSA, now that it is the FSA's main benefactor. Is Erdogan supporting the democrats, moderates and secularists in the FSA, while suppressing them at home?

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

RE: Cluster Munitions and Incendiary Weapons

The U.S. produces and uses cluster munitions, and neither it nor allies Israel and Saudi Arabia - which have used cluster munitions in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen - are signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. In addition, neither the U.S. nor Israel are signatories to the Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the use of Incendiary Weapons.

According to the U.S. State Dept. in 2008:

.



Nyet. You have no way of knowing how Putin would have proceeded had Obama launched a TLAM strike in 2013. Arguably, Obama would have done nothing after delivering a slap on the wrist so long as Assad demurred from using Sarin again.



Nyet. Russia intervened when Assad was in danger of being defeated by the rebels in 2015.



Nyet. Had Obama launched a punitive airstrike in 2013, Putin would have intervened earlier. The U.S. was in no position to impose aerial supremacy and/or a blockade before the Russians could establish themselves. Moreover, I do not see U.S. pilots shooting down Russian aircraft for violating a no-fly zone.



Clinton would have likely been more confrontational, but the fact that Putin would rather avoid confrontation if possible does not suggest that he would countenance direct U.S. intervention against Assad.

Unfortunately, both you and CrowBat seem to be applying binary choices to this situation when it is more an issue of nuances and tweaks. That is the same fallacy that proponents of a complete withdrawal from Syria are making.

Both of you will have to admit that to achieve your preferences will require a major and long-term U.S. commitment in and to Syria, well above and beyond the effort made to protect the KAR in Iraq. Regime change is the least of it. We are talking about state-building, peacekeeping and policing on the ground, economic reconstruction, de-radicalization, inter-sectarian and ethnic integration, truth and reconciliation and probably the demarcation of new international boundaries.

I will admit the following and it is actually backed up by actions on the ground not by "grand words coming out of DC...EU or UNSC"......

1. Russia was in no position to react in a Obama air strike via TLAMs in 2013...end of story....just check their military posturing in 2013...it was all focused on eastern Ukraine ramp up.

They had virtually no military expansion power in the ME at that moment in time.....

So stop the argument until you can show me their military power forward positioning that was available to react to any US movement...

There was none....

SECONDLY check the IHL treaties under the use of INCENDIARY cluster munitions against civilians....as well as the use of chlorine....and actually thermobaric weapons against civilians would in fact be also covered....

ALL solid IHL and GC violations.....learn to read international treaties para for para...

BUT WAIT....Assad was on the verge of defeat far earlier when the rebels launched a major offensive....and Putin did not move then.......did he?

BUT you point to something that goes to an article you posted on the Russian propaganda thread....and I replied that one needs to check Russian "actions against Russian words"....

WHY was the year 2015 selected as the entry point into Syria instead of say 2014 or not far earlier if one really just wants to expand influence with little military effort/little political costs?

Because by then Putin fully and completely understood that Obama would do nothing.........AND he fully understood Trump was openly stating that he wanted to work with Putin against IS/AQ in 2016 ----BUT I am assuming he knew this already in 1987........

NOW go back to several articles written in the NYTs right after the Iran deal was concluded and reread the Obama statements focused on thanking Putin for his assistance with the deal....

Analysts stated then that it was possible that Obama as a favor for Putin's assistance was quasi allowing Putin to expand Russian influence into Syria as a guarantor of the deal along with Iran....and as we see today. Russia is the sole instigator of UN peace dealings using this guarantor status granted by Obama that is why the Us went along with it...really reread that Obama statement as it is an eye opener....

Then go to the 2016 20,000 word Obama interview reinforced by the Rhodes 2016 interview...what was his position towards Iran and KSA openly stared in that set of interviews....BTW I critiqued both of those here..

Putin knew he had a clear and approved road into Syria.....

These "ground/FP conditions" were not available to Putin in 2013...so if you believe that they were available...show me.....

So reread and the come back....

[CrowBat]

It is stubborn and wishful thinking. A unilateral blockade against a client state of theirs?What 'client state', please? What is making Syria of 1988-2015 a 'client state of Russia'?


Russian aircraft and vessels already engage in dangerous maneuvers in international airspace and on the high seas, and ignore NATO air defense identification zones and even sovereign airspace. Yet there has not been so much as a radar lock-on in response.The NATO introduced the ROEs along which it can open fire. These ROEs have been announced to the Russians - and what's their reaction? They shut up and stopped such behaviour.


Moreover, the blockade would be largely unenforced as it would take time for the U.S. to assemble and deploy the assets necessary to enforce it, giving Russia lead time to ignore it....and then they would continue ignoring the situation in Syria, just like they did all the time before August 2015.


These challenges are of course separate from any Iranian resistance, which would probably be kinetic and deniable, with various Shia militias operating anti-aircraft weaponry.Ah, now I see the problem.

OK. Look, this is a forum about military affairs and wars. Please, make no mistake: I do not expect everybody here to have a diploma from West Point, Sandhurst, or Frunze. I'm the first to point out: I've got none of that. Nothing even distantly similar. But, I would say that at least some basic idea about military-related affairs, at least the ability to understand the mechanics of warfare, how the entire system of fighting wars works, might be of some advantage - so that people participating in discussions can follow what's going on.

One of advantages of having at least the most basic ideas about military-related affairs is to understand the importance of something called 'logistics'. For essential definitions and descriptions of that term, please consult such places like Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistics).

Now, weirdos, not to say freaks - like me for example - insist that the logistics is the essence of warfare. I know: I'm stupid and clueless, and I tend to get sarcastic when I find things get ab absurdum...not to talk about none of my theories ever standing a chance whenever seriously checked...

But... and I'm very sorry sorry for bringing this to your attention... word has it, nobody can fight a war without beans, bullets and gas. Please, feel free to correct me, then I'm certainly wrong, and I actually have no idea how did anybody else, nor me, ever come to such conclusions - but that's what so many people say... I guess it's truth. Probably, the entire affair with importance of the logistics is like a wheel: it works, but nobody can explain why. Or doesn't, if there is none.

Ah, nevermind... let's say it's 2013 and the USA and allies decided to impose an aerial blockade of the Syrian airspace. Turks, Saudis, Emiratis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians etc. - all the supposed and/or true US allies in the area - were calling for the USA to do something in Syria... most of the countries in question (and their militaries) were then sent by Oblabla to fight a useless war in Yemen instead... Whatever: back then, they were all offering their militaries and their military bases for use for such an operation - if only the USA would lead.

Word is also, the USN has some swimming things called...what...something like 'aircraft carriers'. Can that be? No clue how they work but, supposedly, these can take a wing of about 48 combat aircraft to the sea and thus reach something like 70% of land mass of this planet. And somebody at the CENTCOM once said that Syria has a coast to some sea too... Provided Syria is not to be found on the western side of Kentucky, that might be truth.

Now, rumour has it, the logistics systems of these countries are closely tied to those of the US military logistics system - which is already massive because it's supporting military bases and deployments in something like hundred territories of all sorts on this planet. I mean: nobody might know why, but the system works, is well tested and oiled. And the militaries in question are spending hundreds of billions for new equipment and intensive, realistic training, every year. They're supported by an amazing intelligence apparatus: surely enough, this is meanwhile better at finding out what toothpaste is Outlaw09 using, or how often do I go to the toilette (even the consistency...), but from time to time it finds out a few useful things about potential enemies, too. If nothing else, even a broken watch is showing the correct time of the day - and that twice a day.

But no... now comes Putler. Oh man, that super-hero...he's going to scare everybody else away - by his sight alone... wow... simply fantastic. Guess, that's so because his intel services are excelling at helping oppositionals fall down some stairs (and then outta window, too) or from top of various buildings in New York. But especially because they are ah just so awesomely good at fighting PR-wars on the internet.

That in turn is going to make up for all the other issues they might face. Namely, Putler's intel actually has no trace of clue about even who's who in Syria; his military just woke up out of lethargic vegetation over the last 20 years. Since some pesky little clash near the place called Tsushima - supposedly fought some 112 years ago - it's clear his military has got no equipment suitable for expeditionary operations, not to talk about experience in this kind of operations; it lacks all sorts of modern combat and combat-support aircraft and (even more so) modern armament...but foremost: neither can his economy support a war away from Russia (if it can support any kind of a war at all), nor has his country and his military got a logistics system that would enable it to go fighting wars against a coalition of some 7-8 well-armed, well-trained, and combat-proven militaries with all of beans, bullets and gas already in place.

Nevermind! Nothing of this matters. Russia stronk. Putler can pull this off, and he's going to fight a war he's got no trace of chance of even starting, not to talk abut running. And that for Syria: a country for which we successfully convinced ourselves is the Russian 'client state' although it never really was...and if not, then just for the f..k of it. And especially because so many in the West are so sternously convinced the Russians can do it. Yeah, they simply know it.

Who cares about logistics or military realities? We've all played computer simulations of all sorts of Russian super-turbo Sukhoi fighter-bombers: we know they are armed with R-77 missiles. Sure, the VKS just received the first batch of 65 of these in 2017, but hey, in computer simulations of 2002 it turned out these are scoring kills by hitting enemy pilots in their hearts... and that was 15 years ago. Isn't that fantastic? Wow, simply great. And, we saw them pulling amazing manoeuvres at various air shows, not to talk about all the possible covers of our specialized magazines - and thus we all know that the Russian military can do it against everybody else over Syria. Period. So, better we do not do anything at all: these pesky Russkies are damn dangerous!

Ah yes, and then the next part of that equation: the bad, bad Iranians. Man, alone this Major-General Soleimani...the 'shadow leader'...the man who won the war against the USA in Iraq... brrrr.... isn't he scary? Arguably, some say the USA went there for no purpose and actually defeated itself (foremost through overspending) and all that bull####. But hey: no, that was Soleimani. The guy is so damn dangerous, I get scared from watching his photos alone, really.

Soleimani's aura of invincibility... his powerful karma... his witchcraft are so mighty, I get wet alone from talking about him. Did you know he can shoot down any F-22 by his looks alone? That's not only the reason why the USAF and the USN do not dare flying over Syria, but foremost: that's the reason why the IRGC has no air defences in Syria until this very day. They're simply unnecessary. They've got Solemani instead.

...ah sorry: I got so distracted discussing these super-heroes....

Whatever, it doesn't matter that gangs of Iranian jihadists deployed in Syria are living alone from the air bridge run by Mahan Air and similar Iranian companies. Plus the two Syrian Il-76s. No aerial blockade can stop that - because Boeing and Airbus want to sell hundreds of airliners to Tehran, and because a blockade is the same like a no-fly-zone. That's why they are spelled in exactly the same way, letter by letter, too.

...simply fantastic...

I'm soundly defeated, as always. Here's my white flag:



And don't worry, my dear Azor: should you still have any kind of problems to argument against my idea of an aerial blockade of Syria as of 2013, you can always bring in Mars People into this game. Or the Emperor, Darth Vader, and his Startroopers.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...if you reread all comments that I have posted as well as CrowBat you will notice that when we bashed Obama it was for specific FP actions or statements or non actions....or just out right stupid decisions/mistakes that reflected he did not fully understand Syria...

With Trump I bash him because he is playing American voters as being simply stupid and he can do "any deal he wants to because he is this greatest deal maker"....

BUT that is not a FP that cannot be built of a national level defined strategic set of strategies.....REMEMBER this is a President that admitted in a public interview he does not even read books..

SO convince me we have a US President that is in fact capable of developing a solid well through out US FP built on solid strategic strategies...ESPECIALLY when it comes to Syria and the entire ME including Israel....

HERE is the Trump FP hard at work yesterday evening in our closest ally in that area...SK....

[OUTLAW 09]

Tonight's biggest story: an editor for the single largest non-state-operated pro-Assad regime media outlet has been suspended for Nazism

Pro-Assad site Al-Masdar suspends editor Paul Antonopoulos after he was shown to be active on Nazi site StormFront

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...read this and then tell me in all honesty that you seriously think this President is capable of even developing a solid FP for Syria and the entire ME?

So exactly how can Trump even begin to understand the complexities of Syria and the ME if he cannot even understand that THADD is in fact a US weapons system deployed/operated only by the US and paid for by DoD yearly budgets.....WHICH is used for strategic strategy related deployments?

I even know that sitting here in Berlin and he is in DC????

Sad...really sad....

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-southkorea-exclusive-idUSKBN17U09M

[OUTLAW 09]

"The world is moving too fast for the institutions we created in the 20th century." - General Jones

[Azor]

Russia was in no position to react in a Obama air strike via TLAMs in 2013...end of story....just check their military posturing in 2013...it was all focused on eastern Ukraine ramp up.

Russia was in no position to react to the TLAM strike in 2017 either, short of deploying more advanced SAMs in Syria than it has in its Western Military District. My point is that the U.S. would have been in no position to prevent Russia establishing a military presence in Syria in 2013, admittedly centered upon naval and air assets.


…check the IHL treaties under the use of INCENDIARY cluster munitions against civilians....as well as the use of chlorine....and actually thermobaric weapons against civilians would in fact be also covered... ALL solid IHL and GC violations...learn to read international treaties para for para...

You’re awfully chirpy on this Friday. Did someone miss their morning Döner Kebab?

The issue isn’t about the U.S. being “legally” permitted to use IC and CM weapons against civilians. It is a matter of public relations. If Washington condemns the use of ICs and CMs by Moscow and Damascus, it will receive a barrage of criticism over its own use of such weapons in urban areas as well as defending Israel’s use of them in Lebanon and Gaza, and the GCC’s use of them I Yemen. Do you follow?


…Assad was on the verge of defeat far earlier when the rebels launched a major offensive...and Putin did not move then...did he? Why was 2015 selected as the entry point into Syria instead of say 2014 or not far earlier if one really just wants to expand influence with little military effort/little political costs? Because by then Putin fully and completely understood that Obama would do nothing...

Yet Iran was still in the process of ramping up its intervention in Syria and cobbling together its mercenary hordes even in early 2015. Perhaps Teheran did not want Moscow too involved until it found itself on the ropes facing defeat by the Free Syrian Army? Note that Putin largely ignored Syria until U.S. intervention seemed imminent in 2013, and until Khamenei needed Russian support in 2015.

Are you asserting that Obama gave Putin a free hand in Ukraine and Syria, and Khamenei a free hand in Iraq and Syria, in return for the JCPOA? What then of Ankara’s, Tel Aviv’s and Riyadh’s interests and concerns?

Putin’s role in Syria has been one of an offshore balancer to prevent the Alawi statelet from being overrun or coming under U.S. influence. Khamenei, on the other hand, is determined to have a strong Shia supremacist state in Syria that is a vassal of Iran. These objectives overlap but differ markedly once Assad is not in danger of defeat and the U.S. is not contemplating a major intervention.

[Azor]

What 'client state', please? What is making Syria of 1988-2015 a 'client state of Russia'?

I meant that in a very loose sense. Russia has difficulty playing with others in the kindergarten so it doesn’t have much in the way of friends. Syria was a friend of Iran’s but it was certainly friendly toward Russia, and was part of the ad hoc authoritarian axis that allegedly resists "American imperialism", or more accurately, the spread of liberal democracy.


NATO introduced the ROEs along which it can open fire. These ROEs have been announced to the Russians - and what's their reaction? They shut up and stopped such behaviour.

Proof?


Ah, now I see the problem. OK. Look, this is a forum about military affairs and wars. Please, make no mistake: I do not expect everybody here to have a diploma from West Point, Sandhurst, or Frunze. I'm the first to point out: I've got none of that. Nothing even distantly similar. But, I would say that at least some basic idea about military-related affairs, at least the ability to understand the mechanics of warfare, how the entire system of fighting wars works, might be of some advantage - so that people participating in discussions can follow what's going on.

Military affairs and wars? That is curious, because both you and Outlaw seem to believe that you know what was going on behind closed doors in Obama’s National Security Council and that you understand Putin’s intentions.

So OSINT on military capabilities and activities is now the same as politics and intent?


Ah, nevermind...let's say it's 2013 and the USA and allies decided to impose an aerial blockade of the Syrian airspace. Turks, Saudis, Emiratis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians etc. - all the supposed and/or true US allies in the area - were calling for the USA to do something in Syria...

Alright, I’ll play.


Assad’s air force is grounded, and he goes back to relying on his ground forces
Moscow and Teheran decide that U.S.-supported regime change is imminent
Assad formally invites Russian and Iranian forces to Syria to defend it against foreign aggression
Russia begins dispatching naval units and combat aircraft to Syria
Iran starts an airlift of men and materiel using civilian airliners
Iran and Russia publicly declare that the NFZ is illegal and that they will ignore it


What then?

[OUTLAW 09]

It is stubborn and wishful thinking. A unilateral blockade against a client state of theirs?

Russian aircraft and vessels already engage in dangerous maneuvers in international airspace and on the high seas, and ignore NATO air defense identification zones and even sovereign airspace. Yet there has not been so much as a radar lock-on in response.

Moreover, the blockade would be largely unenforced as it would take time for the U.S. to assemble and deploy the assets necessary to enforce it, giving Russia lead time to ignore it.

These challenges are of course separate from any Iranian resistance, which would probably be kinetic and deniable, with various Shia militias operating anti-aircraft weaponry.

Such a NFZ would have about as much teeth as China’s ADIZ in the East China Sea.

Remember how the West dealt with Stalin's blockade of West Berlin in 1948-1949[/URL]? Who won that round? Remember the Cuban Crisis? Even then the U.S. was not settled on how to deal with Soviet blockade runners, despite the much higher stakes and the fact that the crisis was Soviet-instigated.

More recently:


The NFZ in northern Iraq required the addition of a No-Drive Zone
Operation Allied Force nearly failed to coerce Serb forces to retreat from Kosovo, and a ground invasion was being considered before Belgrade backed down
The NFZ in Libya was enhanced with airstrikes on ground targets, arms to the rebels and the deployment of Qatari special forces




He took action in Georgia and Ukraine, despite anxieties over NATO’s response, and intervened in Syria despite the fact that the U.S. was already operating there.



Putin doesn’t want another humiliation either, and I do believe that Putin would sacrifice Russian servicemen to U.S. air-to-air missiles if it would tarnish the U.S. as a rogue aggressor in the eyes of its NATO and EU allies. How he dealt with the Su-24 shootdown is instructive here, although that occurred in sovereign Turkish airspace, not a unilaterally imposed no-fly zone in airspace to which Russia was invited to fly.

In Putin’s mind, his use of soft power in Western elections is a response to the Color Revolutions in the former Soviet republics and Serbia, as well as unrest in Russia, all of which he believes is orchestrated by the West. Nor is he far off the mark, as there was an element in the Washington during the Clinton and Bush administrations that coveted Ukraine and Central Asia, and Brussels has more recently been seeking to include Ukraine, Moldova and even Belarus, which would shatter the Moscow-led CIS/CSTO/EAEU integration project.

In addition, to the south and east, Beijing is slowly encroaching on the former Soviet republics in Central Asia, and in particular Kazakhstan, the jewel in the crown. Russia has always been an integration project, and Putin believes that it is being both contained and rolled back by rival projects to the west and the east. Such is the back and forth of the steppes.



Putin wanted the adventure for the sake of prestige, to spoil U.S. intentions and to provide his ramshackle military with combat experience. His objectives have largely been achieved, and Khamenei was content to allow Putin to showboat in order to avoid sparking opposition to the JCPOA; Obama colluded with Khamenei in this regard. Why would Putin want out? What he doesn’t want is to commit major ground forces and face a hostile population and guerrilla warfare.



So you are supporting the Russian and Syrian narrative that Turkey deliberately allowed Daesh fighters and supporters to criss-cross its border with Syria?



So what happens during a U.S. naval blockade when the Syrian express sails for Tartus? The USN assets in the Eastern Mediterranean would probably be busy with swarms of Iranian “civilian” craft running the blockade.

Like it or not, U.S. grand strategy does not revolve around the Free Syrian Army. By the way, while the PYD works to gradually and quietly to establish a one-party homogeneous Kurdish state in northern Syria, I wonder what the AKP is up to within the FSA, now that it is the FSA's main benefactor. Is Erdogan supporting the democrats, moderates and secularists in the FSA, while suppressing them at home?

New US Admin looking for a quick win against IS in Syria, CENTCOM seems convinced only YPG can deliver that despite alarming consequences!

Azor...you do realize PKK is still the same 1978 Communist Party revolutionary group as it is in 2017?

Footage allegedly of French forces in Northern #Raqqa countryside, supporting the SDF in the war against ISIS terrorists.

Joint patrol of YPG and US troops on the border with Turkey in order to stop Turkish aggression.

YPG, PKK's Syrian branch enjoys protection of US and Russia. This will lead to a long Turk-Arab-Kurd conflict post ISIS era that will last.

But as soon as one of those three protective powers abandons the YPG - and this will happen sooner or later - it is in deep trouble

With the Americans guarding them in Raqqa, the Russians in Afrin and the Assadis near Manbij, #Turkey can't attack the #YPG nowhere for now.

US troops patrolling Kurdish held areas, recently attacked by the Turkish military

Show of force.
A combined#US-#YPG (not "SDF"!) convoy travels near the Turkish border in northern #Syria.
https://twitter.com/SonKaleTurkiye2/status/857982501867982850#

That was fast, now that US troops spotted near Tal Abyad, the Russians are expected to show up around Manbij soon.

[Azor]

New US Admin looking for a quick win against IS in Syria, CENTCOM seems convinced only YPG can deliver that despite alarming consequences!

Azor...you do realize PKK is still the same 1978 Communist Party revolutionary group as it s in 2017?

No different from the previous Administration. Kurdish and Shia paramilitaries are being used to suppress a Sunni Arab insurgency and occupy Sunni Arabs, and somehow Washington believes that this will not provoke more insurgency.

Having said that, the Peshmerga are preferable to the YPG, the politics of "Rojava" seem to be pluralistic (perhaps a facade or temporary arrangement), and the Coalition has made efforts to integrate and reconcile Iraqi Sunni and Shia Arabs and prevent sectarian cleansing in areas taken from Daesh.

[OUTLAW 09]

No different from the previous Administration. Kurdish and Shia paramilitaries are being used to suppress a Sunni Arab insurgency and occupy Sunni Arabs, and somehow Washington believes that this will not provoke more insurgency.

Having said that, the Peshmerga are preferable to the YPG, the politics of "Rojava" seem to be pluralistic (perhaps a facade or temporary arrangement), and the Coalition has made efforts to integrate and reconcile Iraqi Sunni and Shia Arabs and prevent sectarian cleansing in areas taken from Daesh.

BUT again you do realize that all of the above I just posted refers to YPG which is in fact PKK...a US named terror group since 1978...??

NOT a single mention of the US fig leaf SDF....was there?

[OUTLAW 09]

Verifying a cluster munition attack that targeted Jisir Al Shugur in #Idlib
#Video #evidence:
https://syrianarchive.org/database/61908/
#

[Azor]

From The Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-military-braces-possible-follow-attacks-us-syria-beyond/

By Pavel Felgenhauer

https://i0.wp.com/jamestown.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/image-6.png?resize=640%2C356&ssl=1


Russian state propaganda has definitively changed its portrayal of United States President Donald Trump after the April 7 Tomahawk cruise missile strike on the Syrian airbase of Shayrat (Homs province). The forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (the Syrian Arab Army—SAA) had allegedly used this base to launch chemical weapons attacks, on April 4, against a rebel-held area of Khan Sheikhoun (Idlib province). According to a poll published this week by the Kremlin-controlled pollster VtSIOM, 82 percent of Russians believe Washington’s attack on the Shayrat airbase was “unjust” and a “US provocation designed to destabilize the situation.” According to VtSIOM general director Valery Fedorov, only 6 percent of Russians believe the US attacked Shayrat to punish the al-Assad regime for allegedly using chemical weapons. The rest believe it was an act of illegal aggression and a provocation designed to harm Russia and its allies. The Russian public supports its country’s continued military involvement in Syria (53 percent), though this support is not overly high despite a continuous pro-war message broadcast by state TV propaganda. VtSIOM data reveals that 34 percent want Russian forces to withdraw from Syria. According to Fedorov, the Tomahawk attack has dramatically diminished the previously positive image of President Trump in Russia (Wciom.ru, April 20). The latest VtSIOM poll concludes that Trump’s popularity among Russians has decreased from 38 to 13 percent; 39 percent of Russians see him today in a negative light, compared to 7 percent a month ago (RIA Novosti, April 17).

Damascus and Moscow have both adamantly rejected any involvement in the alleged April 4 sarin gas attack on Khan Sheikhoun. Initially the main spin coming from Moscow was a theory that a rogue rebel chemical weapons arsenal in Khan Sheikhoun could have been hit by a conventional SAA aerial bombardment, and the inadvertent spill of poisonous gas caused civilian casualties (see EDM, April 13). Now, the emphasis has shifted: The Russian military insists the entire Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack was a deliberate hoax staged by the rebels to implicate al-Assad (Militarynews.ru, April 18). At a meeting in the headquarters of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), in The Hague, Russian high-level diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov presented photo evidence that, according to Moscow, implies there was no real chemical weapons attack in Khan Sheikhoun (TASS, April 19).

The same day, in a special statement, the OPCW announced it had irrefutable forensic evidence sarin was used in Khan Sheikhoun (TASS, April 19). Apparently Moscow knew the use of sarin would be confirmed by OPCW and attempted to preempt that news. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused the OPCW of perpetrating regime change in Syria and of “one-sidedness” (Militarynews.ru, April 19). The defense ministry has accused the OPCW’s Director General Ahmet Üzümcü of “a politically motivated statement” about the use of sarin in Khan Sheikhoun and of “ignoring the facts” (Militarynews.ru, April 20).

Moscow seems to have gone into total denial over the alleged chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun. This month’s visit to Moscow by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who met with Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin, apparently changed little in the US-Russian standoff. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov acknowledged that Tillerson presented in Moscow a detailed plan of a possible resolution of the crisis in Syria, but “we [Russia] do not see much that is new.” According to Ryabkov there are some fresh suggestions, but they are mostly the same talking points that have always come out of Washington (Kommersant, April 19).

The US missile attack seems to have seriously hampered the operational capabilities of the SAA air force. The Shayrat airbase’s air defenses, which Russia had reportedly enhanced, turned out to be incapable of stopping the Tomahawks; and the Russian aerospace forces (VKS) in Syria proved equally powerless. Last October, Russia enhanced its air defenses in Syria by deploying its newest army mobile S-300V4 anti-missile/anti-aircraft system to its naval base in Tartus, in addition to the S-400 missiles that were deployed at the Khmeimim air base in 2015. The S-400 and the S-300V4 both reportedly have a range of some 400 kilometers, theoretically allowing them to cover all of Syria (Militarynews.ru, October 6). At that time, the Russian foreign ministry declared that these additional deployments were intended to deter a possible US cruise missile attack threat (RIA Novosti, October 7).

More recently, however, reports surfaced that the SAA has flown a number of its still-operational jets to an airfield adjacent to the Khmeimim airbase, apparently to avoid another devastating US attack. But according to Russian military experts, being based out of an area near Khmeimim could seriously hamper further Syrian air operations (Militarynews.ru, April 20). Russia’s public bluff was called, and it turned out the Russian “denial of access” air defenses are not as formidable as believed and apparently guarantee cover from cruise missile attack only in the immediate vicinity of the Tartus and Khmeimim bases—a sobering climb-down for Russian state/military propaganda.

This week (April 26), in Moscow, top Russian generals demonstrated additional public humility at an international security conference organized by the Ministry of Defense. Russian officials condemned Western actions in Syria, denounced the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and alleged that the Alliance was carrying out a military build-up along its eastern flank, facing Russia (Kommersant, April 27). According to the chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, “NATO expansion changes the regional balance of power in Europe; increased reconnaissance activity amplifies the risk of clashes. NATO actions are destructive and provocative” (Militarynews.ru, April 26). Whereas, according to the Russian deputy chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir, by 2020 the Pentagon will have the capability to instantaneously kill Russia’s top political and military leadership, destroy its command-and-control systems, and seriously maim its nuclear strategic forces in a sudden preemptive “global strike” (Interfax, April 26). At the same time US missile-defense capabilities are dramatically expanding and may soon exceed the number of Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), Poznikhir implied, which “forces Russia to improve its strategic nuclear forces to meet the US challenge”(Interfax, April 26).

The Russian military is acting much like as any military around the world—exaggerating existing external threats and inventing new ones to win more rearmament funding from a reluctant finance ministry and presidential administration. To obtain the money, the Russian Armed Forces are ready to demonstrate their opponents’ vulnerabilities and surpass their capabilities—something the US Pentagon was always good at.

[CrowBat]

I meant that in a very loose sense. Russia has difficulty playing with others in the kindergarten so it doesn’t have much in the way of friends. Syria was a friend of Iran’s but it was certainly friendly toward Russia, and was part of the ad hoc authoritarian axis that allegedly resists "American imperialism", or more accurately, the spread of liberal democracy.Oh man, Azor... do I really have to waste even more time with this....

After Gorbachev stopped the military cooperation with Syria, and stopped all the arms deliveries too, in 1988, Damascus stopped paying all debts to the USSR, rumoured at between US15 and 17 billion. From 1988 until today, Syrians didn't pay a single cent of that debt back to Moscow.

For 10 years, from 2000 until 2011, Rosobornexport was literaly besieging the HQ of the SyAAF in order to secure orders. In 2001, they've sent a pair of Su-27s for Syrian for flight testing; five years later they've sponsored a huge, 15x4 metres big banner showing two Su-30s that was hung above the entry to the very same HQ; in 2007, they've sponsored live firing exercise for a big group of Syrian pilots in Russia, etc. Russians are really the last to make presents, but Syrians just didn't move. All of this was without any kind of success.

Then Putin wrote off 50% of the Syrian debt - and what did he get in return? In 2008, Damascus cancelled all - and I mean: every single one - oil/gas and construction contracts signed with Moscow. Instead, he signed contracts with Chinese, Canadian and whatever other companies. Immediately afterwards, Assad ordered 33 second-hand MiG-23s from Belarus.

And through all of this time, Moscow didn't once make any kind of use of that 'base' in Tartous. Not one ship stopped there, not one replenished, not one was repaired or else.

In essence, and in summary: for 23 years - from 1988 until 2001 - military cooperation between Syria and Moscow was exactly this: 0.

And shall I now talk about earlier times? Kweres and Jirrah ABs were constructed by Poles, Homs Military Academy by Czechoslovaks (who also had 10-15 professors teaching there for most of the 1960s and 1970s)... and it's long since I've lost the count of stories about Syrian officers having fistfights with their Soviet advisors (one even pistol-slaped one in the face) from the two periods during which there was any kind of a serious military cooperation (namely 1973-1975 and 1982-1988).

But nah: Syria is a Russian 'client state'...?

Surely enough, it is one: in the minds of drunken Russian nationalists, and those of clueless Westerners.


Proof?Proof of what? How often have the Russians violated the airspace of any NATO country with their IFF-transponders off since that ROE was introduced, back in 2015? How do you provide proofs for 0?


Military affairs and wars? That is curious, because both you and Outlaw seem to believe that you know what was going on behind closed doors in Obama’s National Security Council and that you understand Putin’s intentions.Well, one problem people like you have is this: you do not understand that people are talking, no matter in what positions they are. Even those with highest possible security clearances are doing that.

Indeed, such especially - and foremost when asking for advice.

And regarding Putler: 2+2 is 4. Always, and no matter from what side you try it.

Sure, paid PR-clowns like Kujat (or take any of Putler's puppets in the USA, if you prefer) can appear on the TV and try to explain that 2+2 is 5, as often as they like, but 2+2 remains 4.

And because 2+2 is always 4, it's simply silly to insinuate whatever kind of 'what ifs' about a country with the GNP of Spain and its ability to challenge the USA in an open military confrontation. Even more so in an area 2000 kilometres away from its borders, where it has NO bases, nor even any true allies.


So OSINT on military capabilities and activities is now the same as politics and intent?... this is leaving me at lack of words.

I'll expand my statement in which I expressed my expectation that people visiting forums of this kind should have at least the most basic understanding of military affairs: people trying to discuss such topics should also have the bare understanding of other people's abilities to inform themselves and 'connect the dots', too.

Like I said above: 2+2 is 4. Always. So, if you would spend less time trying to discuss what ifs that belong within realms of science fiction, and instead trying to track Russian military activities, study their training, their equipment, strategy, tactics and doctrine, and then do so for years, perhaps even decades, then you would be in a position to draw logical conclusions not only about Russian military activities, but their military capabilities and intentions too.

In such case, yes: OSINT is perfectly enough to draw perfectly useful conclusions. Thanks for asking.


Alright, I’ll play.


Assad’s air force is grounded, and he goes back to relying on his ground forcesbuzzzzz... Assad's air force is grounded, and he realizes he's left without troops to continue the war - which is why Iran launched its military intervention in Syria, in 2012. So what?


Moscow and Teheran decide that U.S.-supported regime change is imminentbuzzz... Tehran concluded this already in 2011. Moscow didn't care until July 2015. As of 2013, neither was in a position to do anything about this.


Assad formally invites Russian and Iranian forces to Syria to defend it against foreign aggressionbuzzzz... didn't happen (at least not in 2013; otherwise it would've been reported). While, the Pentagon and various of NATO allies stoped something like 15 minutes before from launching a military operation against Assad.


Russia begins dispatching naval units and combat aircraft to Syriabuzz... didn't happen (at least not in 2013). And was also not intended by the Russians.

This happened only in 2015 and then for reasons I explained above: Putler went to Syria because he was sure Oblabla wouldn't. Indeed, because the Iranians told him that Oblabla promised Tehran he wouldn't. And Iranians could do so because Oblabla told them so - in exchange for his silly nuclear deal, signed... drums... in July 2015.

Homework for Azor: connect the dots between the Iranian nuclear deal, signed in July 2015, and the Iranian call for a Russian military intervention, issued in July 2015.

Any bells ringing there?


Iran starts an airlift of men and materiel using civilian airlinersbuzzzz... is going on already since 2012. And...?


Iran and Russia publicly declare that the NFZ is illegal and that they will ignore itbuzzz... they can declar whatever they like. There's no NFZ, but a BLOCKADE.

Now, pay attention, there might be a difference between these two expressions: 'blockade' and 'no-fly zone'. Seemingly, one consists of two words, and it could be the number of letters is different too. That might indicate that their meaning is different as well. Just for example, the former doesn't even require, say, US or allied aircraft to fly within the Syrian airspace. It only says, nothing is flying to or out of Syria.

And then, all provided you can still follow, explain me please: who can, say, prevent Turkey from closing its airspace for all Russian aircraft if it likes to do so? (And keep in mind: Turkey did close its airspace for Russian military aircraft, ever since September 2015). Who can prevent Jordan from closing its airspace for all Iranian aircraft?

And: who was in control of the Iraqi government as of 2013?

But, sigh... and as frankly as always: these are things people like you do not think about, and that's why you then wonder about so many things like expressed in such posts like this one, and cry around 'can't believe, can't believe'.

[CrowBat]

By Azor originally: From The Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-military-braces-possible-follow-attacks-us-syria-beyond/

By Pavel Felgenhauer

More recently, however, reports surfaced that the SAA has flown a number of its still-operational jets to an airfield adjacent to the Khmeimim airbase, apparently to avoid another devastating US attack. But according to Russian military experts, being based out of an area near Khmeimim could seriously hamper further Syrian air operations (Militarynews.ru, April 20). Russia’s public bluff was called, and it turned out the Russian “denial of access” air defenses are not as formidable as believed and apparently guarantee cover from cruise missile attack only in the immediate vicinity of the Tartus and Khmeimim bases—a sobering climb-down for Russian state/military propaganda.Et tu, Pavel...? :rolleyes:

Seems that with nobody checking the map of airfields in Syria is a sort of a virus. It spread from the CENTCOM via Department of Defence to the CNN and meanwhile caught even Pavel Felgenhauer...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you do realize and hopefully accept the simple fact that OSINT provides roughly 80% of ALL intel....the remaining 20% is the technical side that usually is used to confirm...deny and or to monitor further developments.

In the later years of AFG and Iraq the US ISR development and deployment of new ISR systems was massive and led to a short shift in emphasis BUT then they became so expensive to develop and deploy that they were scaled back ,,,many were designed to detect and locate HME..home made explosives which were driving the Iraqi and AFG IED wars...or used against poppy fields etc...

HUMINT is really part and parcel of OSINT because say in a strategic debriefing environment it is a HUMINTer doing the work...why because only school trained and approved HUMINTers are allowed to do it....not just any ole Tom, Dick or Jane......

Fun Fact:...at the height of the Cold War KGB had 27,000 employed in reading and analysis of OSINT in multiple languages.

AND if RUMINT is correct it was a badly done Russian OSINT analysis that led to the Russian deploying a missile version that triggered Reagan and the Pershing/cruise missile stationing debate and SU....why because they had read an article on a weapons system that "officially sounded like it came from DoD" in Popular Mechanics complete with stretches thus they developed the SS22 to counter the future threat only to have the Americans stop all R&D on it six months later and they never picked up the stoppage...and they continued to produce their missile system thus leading to the cruise missile stationing debate to counter the new Soviet missile systems.

So yes even the big boys sometimes get it wrong.

If you have been following both this thread and Ukrainian thread you know that...it was the lonely Brit sitting on his sofa that did the world's first really solid OSINT reporting and analysis on the 2013 Assad CWs attack when the rest of the entire MSM still was doubting it was a CW attack...since then he and others around him have developed a number of analysis tools for social media and media in general that are rapidly outperforming even intel OSINT tools...and they are free and open source.

Out of that came @bellingcat now a premier OSINT analysis team and trainers for investigative journalism and a heavy users of social media for a number of things....

LIKE basically calling CENTCOM lairs when they claimed they hit IS/AQ in a mosque not civilians...which would be a war crime and it was a war crime...

[OUTLAW 09]

New US Admin looking for a quick win against IS in Syria, CENTCOM seems convinced only YPG can deliver that despite alarming consequences!

Azor...you do realize PKK is still the same 1978 Communist Party revolutionary group as it is in 2017?

Footage allegedly of French forces in Northern #Raqqa countryside, supporting the SDF in the war against ISIS terrorists.

Joint patrol of YPG and US troops on the border with Turkey in order to stop Turkish aggression.

YPG, PKK's Syrian branch enjoys protection of US and Russia. This will lead to a long Turk-Arab-Kurd conflict post ISIS era that will last.

But as soon as one of those three protective powers abandons the YPG - and this will happen sooner or later - it is in deep trouble

With the Americans guarding them in Raqqa, the Russians in Afrin and the Assadis near Manbij, #Turkey can't attack the #YPG nowhere for now.

US troops patrolling Kurdish held areas, recently attacked by the Turkish military

Show of force.
A combined#US-#YPG (not "SDF"!) convoy travels near the Turkish border in northern #Syria.
https://twitter.com/SonKaleTurkiye2/status/857982501867982850#

That was fast, now that US troops spotted near Tal Abyad, the Russians are expected to show up around Manbij soon.

Azor...when you see the YPG flag which is really the PKK 1978 battle flag and the US flag side by side in the photos did you ever think that the US would be fighting with a Communist led and inspired US named terror group which has been at war with a NATO member for over 40 odd years?

When I was in Hannover with the US government I experienced a massive shot out between a PKK member and Turkish Consulate security personnel as he was attempting to gun down on a German street a Turkish Consul official...and the German government had the PKK member under full surveillance even in the fire fight but could not fire as they would have been in a cross fire.

After a number of these attacks..Germany outlawed PKK and does send their members to prison if they stand up and openly push PKK actions and acitivites...one just got eight years for his actions recently.

Supporters can demonstrate still but any official PKK banners/flags/pictures of their leader led to an immediate shut down of the demo and arrests....a simple sign stating the letters PKK is allowed under freedom of expression...

With the US fully siding with YPG which is really PKK and Orton..Lister...Hassan..CrowBat and myself will tell you they are one and the same...in the CENTCOM drive to supposedly "defeat" IS CENTCOM is in fact setting the US up for total long term failure... they are really in a short sighted way just setting the stage for a decade/decades or so of Kurd...Arab and Turkish conflicts.

Right now Turkey fully believes that the US has repeatedly lied to them on their relationship and support for YPG and they have actually....

If you are good at research go back and reread the recent HRW and AI reports of how YPG handles Arab areas that are truly Arab when they capture them...Arab areas and populations that YPG claims is "suddenly historically Kurdish".....

You talk about Peshmerga..go back and reread about the relationship between Peshmerga and YPG...an eye opener that CENTCOM does not talk about...nor will they as it counters their standard narrative about YPG...

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat...HTS has been releasing a unusual number of TOW strikes..any idea on who and or where they are getting them and who trained them?

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh man, Azor... do I really have to waste even more time with this....

After Gorbachev stopped the military cooperation with Syria, and stopped all the arms deliveries too, in 1988, Damascus stopped paying all debts to the USSR, rumoured at between US15 and 17 billion. From 1988 until today, Syrians didn't pay a single cent of that debt back to Moscow.

For 10 years, from 2000 until 2011, Rosobornexport was literaly besieging the HQ of the SyAAF in order to secure orders. In 2001, they've sent a pair of Su-27s for Syrian for flight testing; five years later they've sponsored a huge, 15x4 metres big banner showing two Su-30s that was hung above the entry to the very same HQ; in 2007, they've sponsored live firing exercise for a big group of Syrian pilots in Russia, etc. Russians are really the last to make presents, but Syrians just didn't move. All of this was without any kind of success.

Then Putin wrote off 50% of the Syrian debt - and what did he get in return? In 2008, Damascus cancelled all - and I mean: every single one - oil/gas and construction contracts signed with Moscow. Instead, he signed contracts with Chinese, Canadian and whatever other companies. Immediately afterwards, Assad ordered 33 second-hand MiG-23s from Belarus.

And through all of this time, Moscow didn't once make any kind of use of that 'base' in Tartous. Not one ship stopped there, not one replenished, not one was repaired or else.

In essence, and in summary: for 23 years - from 1988 until 2001 - military cooperation between Syria and Moscow was exactly this: 0.

And shall I now talk about earlier times? Kweres and Jirrah ABs were constructed by Poles, Homs Military Academy by Czechoslovaks (who also had 10-15 professors teaching there for most of the 1960s and 1970s)... and it's long since I've lost the count of stories about Syrian officers having fistfights with their Soviet advisors (one even pistol-slaped one in the face) from the two periods during which there was any kind of a serious military cooperation (namely 1973-1975 and 1982-1988).

But nah: Syria is a Russian 'client state'...?

Surely enough, it is one: in the minds of drunken Russian nationalists, and those of clueless Westerners.

Proof of what? How often have the Russians violated the airspace of any NATO country with their IFF-transponders off since that ROE was introduced, back in 2015? How do you provide proofs for 0?

Well, one problem people like you have is this: you do not understand that people are talking, no matter in what positions they are. Even those with highest possible security clearances are doing that.

Indeed, such especially - and foremost when asking for advice.

And regarding Putler: 2+2 is 4. Always, and no matter from what side you try it.

Sure, paid PR-clowns like Kujat (or take any of Putler's puppets in the USA, if you prefer) can appear on the TV and try to explain that 2+2 is 5, as often as they like, but 2+2 remains 4.

And because 2+2 is always 4, it's simply silly to insinuate whatever kind of 'what ifs' about a country with the GNP of Spain and its ability to challenge the USA in an open military confrontation. Even more so in an area 2000 kilometres away from its borders, where it has NO bases, nor even any true allies.

... this is leaving me at lack of words.

I'll expand my statement in which I expressed my expectation that people visiting forums of this kind should have at least the most basic understanding of military affairs: people trying to discuss such topics should also have the bare understanding of other people's abilities to inform themselves and 'connect the dots', too.

Like I said above: 2+2 is 4. Always. So, if you would spend less time trying to discuss what ifs that belong within realms of science fiction, and instead trying to track Russian military activities, study their training, their equipment, strategy, tactics and doctrine, and then do so for years, perhaps even decades, then you would be in a position to draw logical conclusions not only about Russian military activities, but their military capabilities and intentions too.

In such case, yes: OSINT is perfectly enough to draw perfectly useful conclusions. Thanks for asking.

buzzzzz... Assad's air force is grounded, and he realizes he's left without troops to continue the war - which is why Iran launched its military intervention in Syria, in 2012. So what?

buzzz... Tehran concluded this already in 2011. Moscow didn't care until July 2015. As of 2013, neither was in a position to do anything about this.

buzzzz... didn't happen (at least not in 2013; otherwise it would've been reported). While, the Pentagon and various of NATO allies stoped something like 15 minutes before from launching a military operation against Assad.

buzz... didn't happen (at least not in 2013). And was also not intended by the Russians.

This happened only in 2015 and then for reasons I explained above: Putler went to Syria because he was sure Oblabla wouldn't. Indeed, because the Iranians told him that Oblabla promised Tehran he wouldn't. And Iranians could do so because Oblabla told them so - in exchange for his silly nuclear deal, signed... drums... in July 2015.

Homework for Azor: connect the dots between the Iranian nuclear deal, signed in July 2015, and the Iranian call for a Russian military intervention, issued in July 2015.

Any bells ringing there?

buzzzz... is going on already since 2012. And...?

buzzz... they can declar whatever they like. There's no NFZ, but a BLOCKADE.

Now, pay attention, there might be a difference between these two expressions: 'blockade' and 'no-fly zone'. Seemingly, one consists of two words, and it could be the number of letters is different too. That might indicate that their meaning is different as well. Just for example, the former doesn't even require, say, US or allied aircraft to fly within the Syrian airspace. It only says, nothing is flying to or out of Syria.

And then, all provided you can still follow, explain me please: who can, say, prevent Turkey from closing its airspace for all Russian aircraft if it likes to do so? (And keep in mind: Turkey did close its airspace for Russian military aircraft, ever since September 2015). Who can prevent Jordan from closing its airspace for all Iranian aircraft?

And: who was in control of the Iraqi government as of 2013?

But, sigh... and as frankly as always: these are things people like you do not think about, and that's why you then wonder about so many things like expressed in such posts like this one, and cry around 'can't believe, can't believe'.

BUT WAIT....I had a highly educated Iraqi (Animal Vet) who spoke a beautiful Arabic who led a 40 man Ansar al Sunnah cell before we rolled him and his entire cell up....actually tell me 2 + 2 actually equals 5.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTjM6S-kOmg
In Persian

AND THEN

https://youtu.be/m5OYMNNNzS0

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...here we go again....and that massive Trump "Wag the Dog moment" TLAM strike really got the attention of Assad and Putin did it not?

Syria #Hama Several airstrikes with Chlorine Gas reported on #Lataminah this morning.
Town is strategic target for #Assad-regime


THIS after massive incendiary cluster munitions strikes and raining thermobaric 500lb bombs on it....

BTW chlorine use is seen by OWPC as being a CW attack....

[OUTLAW 09]

This story largely posted here yesterday is now being picked up by US MSM.....

The US now has troops patrolling the Syrian border to prevent two US allies from fighting each other.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-patrol-along-syrian-border-to-stop-turk-kurd-clashes-1493416939#

Notice how the US spin is that the Kurds are full fledged allies forgetting long the way the Communist PKK that is a US named terror group....

Kind of a reverse US propaganda move...to cover that fact up....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...here we go again....and that massive Trump "Wag the Dog moment" TLAM strike really got the attention of Assad and Putin did it not?

Syria #Hama Several airstrikes with Chlorine Gas reported on #Lataminah this morning.
Town is strategic target for #Assad-regime


THIS after massive incendiary cluster munitions strikes and raining thermobaric 500lb bombs on it....

BTW chlorine use is seen by OPCW as being a CW attack....

Today is the 20th anniversary of the entry into force of the Chemical Weapons Convention.
@OPCW now needed more than ever!

Also signed by Russia....

[OUTLAW 09]

New US Admin looking for a quick win against IS in Syria, CENTCOM seems convinced only YPG can deliver that despite alarming consequences!

Azor...you do realize PKK is still the same 1978 Communist Party revolutionary group as it is in 2017?

Footage allegedly of French forces in Northern #Raqqa countryside, supporting the SDF in the war against ISIS terrorists.

Joint patrol of YPG and US troops on the border with Turkey in order to stop Turkish aggression.

YPG, PKK's Syrian branch enjoys protection of US and Russia. This will lead to a long Turk-Arab-Kurd conflict post ISIS era that will last.

But as soon as one of those three protective powers abandons the YPG - and this will happen sooner or later - it is in deep trouble

With the Americans guarding them in Raqqa, the Russians in Afrin and the Assadis near Manbij, #Turkey can't attack the #YPG nowhere for now.

US troops patrolling Kurdish held areas, recently attacked by the Turkish military

Show of force.
A combined#US-#YPG (not "SDF"!) convoy travels near the Turkish border in northern #Syria.
https://twitter.com/SonKaleTurkiye2/status/857982501867982850#

That was fast, now that US troops spotted near Tal Abyad, the Russians are expected to show up around Manbij soon.

Azor...a lot of good that driving around that US SOF did with YPG on the border to Turkey....APPEARS Turkey did not "get the message"....

Iraq: Turkish airstrikes have killed 14 #PKK fighters in Northern #Iraq today.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sarmin, #idlib hit by a cluster rocket killing multiple people, unsure of exact model.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDTt9gJix3k#

[OUTLAW 09]

US can turn #Raqa into 'graveyard' for IS: Erdogan
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/turkey-us-turn-raqa-graveyard-erdogan-092106806.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw#

This map is extremely important to understand the Turkish fighting in and around Tal Abyad....What is interesting is that Turkey had presented a Raqqa attack plan to the US that foresaw Turkish troops and FSA coming down the main road from Tal Abyad which from a logistics and attack mode made perfect sense to the Turks.....

BUT evidently the US and Kurds decided that should not happen and the Kurds have expanded their hold in this area to the determent of the FSA and Turks.

If in fact the YPG takes Raqqa the Kurds will in effect have complete control of the border areas along the Turkish border with the exception of small FSA/TAF pockets.....which will in the end reinforce the Turkish believe that the US is not supporting them in their fight against PKK...

[OUTLAW 09]

US troops at an Asayish checkpoint after passing through Qamishlo city centre

U.S. went from taking side of non-state actor SDF/QSD/PKK over treaty ally Turkey to protecting YPG/PKK border areas from treaty ally Turkey

Azor...do you see what exactly CrowBat is talking about....????

[OUTLAW 09]

Kurdish fighters from (#YPG) stand near a U.S military vehicle in the town of Darbasiya next to the Turkish border

Amude people welcoming #US vehicles and holding hashtags #NoFlyZone4Rojava

Azor...notice Kurds are not demanding a NFZ for Sunni's who are seeing far more air strikes than Turkey has carried out...

BTW..you never did respond that posting concerning the only Rojava Embassy being in Moscow months ago....

[OUTLAW 09]

AND here it comes....

Turkish demands in CENTCOM: Give us a place at Raqqa battle via Tell Abyad or they will force YPG to leave Tell Rifaat and Manbij by Euphrates Shield forces.

Surely CENTCOM did not see this coming did it????

Erdogan will tell Trump: Turkey ready to take Raqqa "We won't allow creation of terror corridor on our south border"

Raqqa will take 10-20K. There is no non-SDF force that big that will prioritize fighting ISIS.

Unbelievable: PUK, Gorran, KDP factions ... in Duhok provincial council blame PKK for Turkish attacks on Sinjar!!
http://www.nrttv.com/Details.aspx?Jimare=70225#…

So Turkey is getting consensus on the problematic PKK presence in Sinjar from the KDP, the PUK and the US, a big sign of what lurks ahead.

[CrowBat]

This story largely posted here yesterday is now being picked up by US MSM.....

The US now has troops patrolling the Syrian border to prevent two US allies from fighting each other.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-patrol-along-syrian-border-to-stop-turk-kurd-clashes-1493416939#

Notice how the US spin is that the Kurds are full fledged allies forgetting long the way the Communist PKK that is a US named terror group....

Kind of a reverse US propaganda move...to cover that fact up....
'Providing evidence that 2 + 2 = 5'...

[OUTLAW 09]

AND here it comes....

Turkish demands in CENTCOM: Give us a place at Raqqa battle via Tell Abyad or they will force YPG to leave Tell Rifaat and Manbij by Euphrates Shield forces.

Surely CENTCOM did not see this coming did it????

Erdogan will tell Trump: Turkey ready to take Raqqa "We won't allow creation of terror corridor on our south border"

Raqqa will take 10-20K. There is no non-SDF force that big that will prioritize fighting ISIS.

Unbelievable: PUK, Gorran, KDP factions ... in Duhok provincial council blame PKK for Turkish attacks on Sinjar!!
http://www.nrttv.com/Details.aspx?Jimare=70225#…

So Turkey is getting consensus on the problematic PKK presence in Sinjar from the KDP, the PUK and the US, a big sign of what lurks ahead.

Azor...this is what both CrowBat,myself and a lot of others have been saying.

The assessment = taking #Raqqa immediately is more important than risking yrs of cross-border Turkey-#PKK war?

TAF/FSA now have approximately 10K plus available to fight and FSA wants to take the IS capital

But frankly speaking, any/all mitigation with #Turkey will determinedly fail, should the #YPG (as is expected) be the lead force for #Raqqa.

Trump's NSC is saying the US will need a Divison on the ground...

[CrowBat]

CrowBat...HTS has been releasing a unusual number of TOW strikes..any idea on who and or where they are getting them and who trained them?
Sure, it's similar to the situation from 2015: back then Nusra destroyed the Harakat Hazzm, and thus came in control of one of its TOW-teams with a stock of 3-4 operational TOWs. The team then fired these 'for Nusra', scoring three kills - and the Pentagon couldn't stop crying (through all the possible media, of course), that the (CIA's) operation of supporting insurgents failed and only results in arms being delivered to the extremists.

Eventually, public pressure (conditioned by leaks from the Pentagon) resulted in the CIA bringing a decision to drop its support for the Harakat Hazzm, and then - in October 2015 - for Harakat Noureddin az-Zenghi (HNAZ). The leaders of the latter were left without foreign supporters, and the matter of fact is that no significant group in Syria can exist without such a source of finances, arms and supplies. Finding nobody ready to provide pays, arms, and supplies for their 3,000-4,000 fighters, HNAZ was left without the choice but to start cooperating with a number of private donors from Kuwait and Qatar.

Over the time, their influence began dragging HNAZ towards the...correction: Wahhabist....side. Early this year, this led to the ultimate rift within the HNAZ: some of its leadership and part of the cadre defected to the HTS. The rest (foremost the hard-core FSyA-part, which was the majority of this movement) has joined Ahrar ash-Sham - primarily in order to find protection from the HTS.

But, the part that went to the HTS is including at least one TOW-team, and an unknown stock of TOWs. And they're putting these to use. We'll see if they'll find a way to find replacement rounds too.

[OUTLAW 09]

Colin Kahl‏#
@ColinKahl
replying to @AbuJamajem
YPG themselves mostly out & I would favor getting all SDF back east across river. But your "you guys are idiots" tone is unhelpful here.

It's possible to put meaningful political & operational checks on SDF & address Turkey's core concerns. I'm just not sure Trump is up to it

How'd it go when we promised the YPG would return east of the Euphrates?

No alt force can take Raqqa for foreseeable future. And your assumption that US has to promise YPG too many concessions to do so is wrong.

I'm confused. Your proposal to back SDF to squeeze ISIS while mitigating re:Turkey is precisely the Obama approach.

BLUF....the US and Turkey are definitely on a collision course over the YPG and the YPG led attack on Raqqa...

[CrowBat]

... all of this nonsense about the PKK/PYD/YPG is just a pile of crap.

The US support for that conglomerate makes only one thing sure: namely, that the war in Syria is going to go on even if Assad and all of his Assadists would disappear right now, and Russians and Iranians withdraw by tomorrow in the morning.

Why? Because the PKK/PYD/YPG is not only at war with Turkey since 30 years, but also has meanwhile ethnically cleansed dozens of thousands of Sunni Arabs from N + NE Syria. Means: because it is not ending any of its existing wars, but making itself only new enemies.

And the USA are supporting that.

...and then they wonder how comes the war in the Middle East never ends...

[Azor]

I am a hardline advocate for self-determination and sovereignty. Ideally, there should be a Kurdish nation-state carved out of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. However, I am also aware that this is also impractical and that the Kurds will probably have to settle for regional autonomy with cross-border relations among their four communities.

The mass murder of Kurds by Iraq is broadly recognized, and certainly Iraq is the worst offender since 1979. Yet Turkey is far and away the second-worst offender over that period, amassing a bodycount of Kurdish civilians more than three times the number of the Iranian revolutionaries. If the PKK is autocratic and fights dirty, what then of the Turkish state? This is the same Turkish state that denies the Turkish mass murder and cleansing of Armenians, Assyrians, Greeks and Kurds in the 1910s and 1920s, and which has used its role in NATO to ensure that the PKK is designated as a terrorist organization. We both agree that the PYD is a branch of the PKK and its YPG has committed acts of ethnic and sectarian cleansing against Arabs, Turkmen and Christians. Of the Kurds, I prefer the Iraqi-based KRG/PM to the Syrian-based PYD/YPG, which have not exactly had the most cordial of inter-ethnic relations, but that preference is irrelevant. Turkey may well spoil the SDF offensive on Raqqa. However, just as the Turks will fight to prevent the establishment of a de facto independent Kurdish state on their southern border, Kurds in Turkey and Syria will prevent any reversion to the pre-war status quo. Pandora’s Box has been opened.

The U.S. has continued a very foolish policy toward the wars in Iraq and Syria, as it has not only attempted to be as uninvolved as possible, it cares only about achieving one limited objective in a conflict that rivals the Thirty Years War for complexity and dynamism. Americans fail to realize that Al Qaeda and Daesh do not matter that much to Iraqis and Syrians, as they are likely to be harmed by a variety of state and non-state actors, irrespective of whether or not these actors commit violence in the West. To Iraqis and Syrians, the West is only concerned with the mere spillover from their wars. The Kurds have proven to be a useful local allies in fighting Daesh because of their proximity and conflict with Daesh; this is not unlike how the non-Pashtun Northern Alliance was a useful ally against the Pashtun Taliban in 2001.

Yet once Daesh has been pushed out of areas that the Kurds seek to claim for themselves, their enthusiasm diminishes, as their primary goal is not to destroy Daesh but self-determination. The U.S. has also relied upon Iraqi Shia militias infiltrated by Iranian special forces, which are exactly the sort of occupying force that spurred the uprising among Iraqi Sunni Arabs that led to Daesh. If the goal is to corral and contain the Sunni Arabs of Syria and Iraq, the U.S. effort is going well; if the goal is to defeat Daesh, it is a disaster. Once Daesh is destroyed as an organization, another defender of the Sunni Arabs will emerge to take its place. The rebellion will never end until the Sunni Arabs are protected from oppression and Sunni Arab forces defeat the violent supremacists in their own community.

The only actor possibly capable of that is the Free Syrian Army.

[CrowBat]

I am a hardline advocate for self-determination and sovereignty.Me too, and so also in the case of Kurds.

And I can't forget that the Kurds were promised their own state - exactly in same fashion like Arabs and Jews, by the very same people, at almost the very same opportunity (back in 1917) - and then dropped like a hot rock.

Problem with Kurds ever since are of multiple nature: outwardly, one of primary issues is their lack of unity. One of reasons for the latest failure of negotiations with Turkey is that Kurds couldn't agree - between themselves - what would be their official language: they've got some 40 (plus), but have to use Turkish to communicate with each other.

The last few years, a mass of Kurds inside Turkey voted pro AKP - and indeed pro Erdogan's referendum.

Should anybody here wonder why: the PKK is scoring big points in the West by emphasising its secular side, which Turks actually have as well (which is a much-ignored fact). However, majority of Kurds in Turkey live in rural areas, and are as religious (actually, in this regards Kurds are even slightly more religious and bigotic than average Turks), as backwards, as dogmatic, and as patriarchal as their Turkish neighbours.

...this goes so far, that most of the girlies that are members of the JPJ actually fled their families that tried to get them married - through selling them to their future grooms...

And even if all of such elections and referendums were forged, and only half of what I wrote above would be truth (like I'm sure any decent PKK-activist here in Europe would insist): the Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq - the KRG - maintain cordial relations not only to the USA, but to Turkey too, which is why the PKK is repeatedly attacking them.

The PKK is attacking even the Yazidis: while these appear to be so very much important to most of 'true Western Christians', why nobody cares about that?

...and I'll not even go into discussion about 14 political parties of Kurds from northern Syria (all were anti-Assad, and some were KRG-allies) all of which were de-facto destroyed by the PKK in order for this to establish itself in power.

...nor the PJAK or few other, similar Kurdish terrorist gangs.

Kurds were never united. That's the principal reason why they still don't have their own nation-state.


Yet Turkey is far and away the second-worst offender over that period, amassing a bodycount of Kurdish civilians more than three times the number of the Iranian revolutionaries. If the PKK is autocratic and fights dirty, what then of the Turkish state?Hm... I'm amazed. So, the Turkish military regime of the 1970s and 1980s was 'OK', because it was securing Turkey's pro-USA/NATO position at the times of the Cold War. Similarly, the PKK was declared a terrorist organization because it is a Marxist organization supported by Moscow and Damascus that was assassinating Turkish politicians, military officers - and mass murdering Turkish civilians.

But, 20 years later Turkish democratically-elected Islamist government is 'not OK' when it fights the PKK - while this is still supported by Moscow and Damascus...?


This is the same Turkish state that denies the Turkish mass murder and cleansing of Armenians, Assyrians, Greeks and Kurds in the 1910s and 1920s...Not exactly. Firstly, the Armenian genocide was the Ottoman government's systematic extermination of 1.5 million Armenian Christians. The same government was removed by Atatrk a few years later. The topic was subsequently ignored - especially so after Turkey became one of funding members of the NATO - because Armenia was gulped by the USSR, and it was inopportune to blame its ally for any kind of misdeeds from the past. Of course, Turkish governments didn't mind that.

Nowadays, a government as staunchly Islamist and as nationalist as that of Erdogan simply can't 'admit' such a misdeed for obvious reason, but also not because doing so would expose it to all sorts of demands for reparations.

This is quite a widely acceptable practice in plenty of other cases, actually - and then for a host of opportunistic, political- as well as practical reasons. Just for example, some say the Czarist Russia murdered more Jews in pogroms of the 19th Century, than Nazis did during the Holocaust (and, BTW, the Holocaust became 'possible' because so many Jews fled from Russia to Europe, due to pogroms). How many native Indians were murdered in genocide and ethnic cleansing by colonists in what later became the USA remains unknown and hapily avoided topic until today. George Armstrong Custer - a character that, for all practical purposes, was a hijacker and mass murderer or women and children - is considered a national hero in the USA. Not to mention what various European colonial powers were doing to native people of Africa, Asia etc. over the last six centuries...Similarly, nobody can say how many Arabs were killed by Jews and various of their Western allies since the Westerners helped Jews impose their rule over the Palestina.

...and so on, and on... that list is very, very long...indeed, so long that singling Turkey out makes very little sense in the World full of such stories, just insistently inconsequent in sorting them out.

...which is actually little surprising considering precisely those who act as if they would be in a position to teach everybody else how to deal with such history, have a history based on ethnic cleansing and mass murder, i.e. genocides.


However, just as the Turks will fight to prevent the establishment of a de facto independent Kurdish state on their southern border...Wrong. The experience from what happened in northern Iraq is a brilliant illustration for the fact that Turkey is very much ready to accept Kurdish-ruled areas - if these do not support the PKK.

And overall, I simply do not understand why everybody's interests are OK, just Turkish interests are - exactly like those of majority of Syrian people - 'not OK'? Assadists interests are respected; Iranian interests in Syria are respected, Russian interests in Syria are respected (no matter how much non-existing), PKK's interests in Turkey and Syria are even supported... but Turkey is not even granted the right to be more concerned about the PKK and Kurdish nationalism than about the Daesh...?

Sure, Daesh is a gang of beasty idiots, and a major concern for the West, but the PKK is also a recognized terrorist organization. Turkey is, or at least sees itself as, a nation-state based on Turkish nationalism. Does it really take that big a leap of thinking to realize that Turkey would see as an existential threat a competing nationalist ideology that has an interest in territory within the borders of Turkey...?

If you don't understand that, think about it: how about the USA being so kind to 'return' Texas - perhaps California too - to Austria and/or Spain, just because some foreign government would find such an act being 'of its highest national interests'?

You think that's absurd? I doubt you know why.

And Erdogan... if you replace 'Islam' with 'Christianity' in his rhetoric, he sounds not a bit different from most of Republican governmental figures in the USA.

Yet, he's 'not OK', and his politics towards the PKK even less so...?


...this is not unlike how the non-Pashtun Northern Alliance was a useful ally against the Pashtun Taliban in 2001....'not unlike'...? The United Front/Northern Coalition was no terrorist organization, but a movement widely supported by the local population; Taliban were a Pakistani creation financed by the Saudis; and - as 'thanks' for creating all the brawl in Afghanistan, I guess - Pakistan was then declared a 'most important non-NATO ally' by the USA... Get serious, please.


The only actor possibly capable of that is the Free Syrian Army....oh see there... and, why is the USA then not supporting the Free Syrian Army...?

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...I keep going back to the idea in FP called "creditability" ...... in order to do anything a nation state must be viewed as capable of holding to what it says and or does....

Right now Trump might be the "greatest" when he is cheered in front of his own voters...notice he never holds a rally including those that voted against him....

BUT when his speech and or his actions are over..then begins the dissection of what he said and or did by overseas viewers...

And believe me they can see "through" his actions and then they as a population begin to wonder...why support the US when the "so called leader of the world" is in fact a narcissistic crazy.....and when you hear a Berlin morning radio show making jokes out of his public statements then you what the common German on the street thinks....

So when the US needs a true set of partners where will they be when those nation state leaders with their own populations see that US leader as a "crazy" and one to not be followed...

Perfect example....Trump interview with AP states that the SK government will naturally "pay 1B USDs" for the THADD he is sending them...sound like his statements that NATO must somehow pay a cash deposit in the US Federal Bank before he will lift a finger does it not?

And they definitely notice when he lies as he did again on the sheer numbers of people wanting to see/hear him...


Trump says "we have a lot of ppl standing outside" and he "broke the all time record" in this arena.

BUT there are rows of empty seats here?


So if he asks for NATO troops say in Syria to "eradicate IS from this earth"...what do you think their response will be?

Notice on their own NATO is discussing rising troops levels in AFG and Trump never asked them..they see the degrading of current conditions and act....BUT it is Trump that keeps saying to his voters..NATO must step up and fight terrorism????

[OUTLAW 09]

Back though to Syria....US has placed their bets on the wrong horse and in the end there is a serious possibility that it will trigger a far wider war and that is one not directed against IS.....

The rush to defeat IS in Raqqa by Trump is a clear indicator he knows nothing about what he is doing.......

Right now the US needs to seriously take one step at a time and very slowly in order to fully understand what the second...third and fourth order of effects are going to be when they make a single move....

But in typical US fashion they are not doing that and are setting up war in Syria for the coming decades...

[Azor]

Yes, the Kurds are disunited. So too are the “Arabs” or Arabized Levantines.


…the PKK is scoring big points in the West by emphasising its secular side, which Turks actually have as well (which is a much-ignored fact).

On the contrary, Turkey’s secular traditions are why it was regarded curiously as a “model Muslim democracy” following the end of military rule and its dalliance with the European Union. Quietly the West is looking for a replacement, and perhaps Tunisia will qualify after a few more years.


But, 20 years later Turkish democratically-elected Islamist government is 'not OK' when it fights the PKK - while this is still supported by Moscow and Damascus...

Well, Ankara has been fighting the PKK and PYD at the expense of the campaign against Daesh, which in Syria is reliant upon the YPG. Ideally, the West wants both Turkey and the PYD to focus on Daesh and the PKK to stand down.


Not exactly. Firstly, the Armenian genocide was the Ottoman government's systematic extermination of 1.5 million Armenian Christians. The same government was removed by Ataturk a few years later.

Interesting. Turkey is transformed from an empire into a republic and the Turkish nation and state are absolved of collective responsibility. That’s a neat trick. Someone should have told the Germans and Japanese. This sort of cognitive dissonance is more associated with Russians when confronted with the crimes committed by the Soviet Union. Nor was the genocide in the Congo Free State a Belgian crime, as Leopold II ruled it as a personal fiefdom…


Just for example, some say the Czarist Russia murdered more Jews in pogroms of the 19th Century, than Nazis did during the Holocaust (and, BTW, the Holocaust became 'possible' because so many Jews fled from Russia to Europe, due to pogroms).

Who says that? That’s a ridiculous assertion.

Most Jews had actually fled east and into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which sheltered them from oppression to the west as well as the wars of religion following the Reformation. The worst Jewish suffering in Europe prior to the Shoah was at the hands of Ukrainian Cossacks in the 17th Century, which was insignificant compared to what the Germans would mete out in the 20th.


How many native Indians were murdered in genocide and ethnic cleansing by colonists in what later became the USA remains unknown and happily avoided topic until today.

There was cleansing but not genocide. The aboriginals cleansed European settlers, the Europeans cleansed them, and the aboriginals cleansed one another. After 1789, it was primarily a one-sided affair. The estimates used for aboriginal excess deaths at the hands of the British, French, Americans and Canadians always include victims of the Spanish in contemporary Mexico and Central America, where aboriginal populations in North America were mostly concentrated.


Not to mention what various European colonial powers were doing to native people of Africa, Asia etc. over the last six centuries...Similarly, nobody can say how many Arabs were killed by Jews and various of their Western allies since the Westerners helped Jews impose their rule over the Palestinians.

Any other topics we can cover before we return to Turkey? I thought your soft spot was for Sunni Arabs, but now Turks are included. No discussion of South Asians or Africans, however.

On the contrary, the death toll of Arab and Palestinian civilians at Jewish and Israeli hands is fairly well-known. Most of the casualties inflicted by the Israelis were combatants.


…singling Turkey out makes very little sense in the World full of such stories...

The point is that the Turks – not unlike the Russians – have difficulty with their history and collective responsibility, and that the lack of reconstruction, truth and reconciliation or merely free and open debate, informs the actions of the Turkish state today.


...which is actually little surprising considering precisely those who act as if they would be in a position to teach everybody else how to deal with such history, have a history based on ethnic cleansing and mass murder

Such as who?

If you are referring to me personally, I would tell that you that I do not question your knowledge of various MENA air forces and air defense systems, and when it comes to dealing with “such history”, you should be aware that it is my sandbox.


Wrong. The experience from what happened in northern Iraq is a brilliant illustration for the fact that Turkey is very much ready to accept Kurdish-ruled areas - if these do not support the PKK.

I don’t agree. Such good relations didn’t occur in an altruistic vacuum.

Neither wanted the West to have to choose sides, and it served both sides’ purposes. The PKK exists because Turkey does not want Kurdish self-determination in Turkey, and that includes by way of regional autonomy. It was not difficult to accept a KRG in Iraq that did not involve the Turkish state losing any control, and that was a rival to the PKK. Turkey would have had to confront the both the U.S. and Europe in order to snuff out the KRG, and the KRG would have been utterly foolish to attempt to liberate Turkish Kurds.

Speaking of Turkish Kurds, when the AKP began losing ground in the polls prior to the June 2015 election, “Daesh” conveniently bombed a HDP rally just days before.


And overall, I simply do not understand why everybody's interests are OK, just Turkish interests are…'not OK'

I never claimed that Turkey’s interests were “not OK” and that the PKK’s are. I understand Kurdish separatism in Turkey and I understand the perceived need for war with Turkey. That does not mean that I support a separate Kurdish state as opposed to regional autonomy, or that I support the PKK.

Turkey has done some good, such as supporting millions of Syrian refugees and the Free Syrian Army. It has also acted immorally, by allowing Daesh recruits to flow through to Syria, by using Syrian refugees to extort Europe, by obstructing anti-Daesh operations, and by doing nothing as Daesh attacked Kurdish villages and towns along its border, such as Kobane. Erdogan has acted in part as a defender of Sunnis facing Shia oppression in Iraq and Syria, when other Sunni leaders were doing little or nothing, but he also harbors his own imperial ambitions.


You think that's absurd? I doubt you know why.

You seem to be attempting to get a rise out of me by changing topics to other hemispheres. Perhaps you are barking up the wrong tree. You do recall what happens when you assume, no? It all revolves around the “u”.


The United Front/Northern Coalition was no terrorist organization, but a movement widely supported by the local population; Taliban were a Pakistani creation financed by the Saudis; and - as 'thanks' for creating all the brawl in Afghanistan, I guess - Pakistan was then declared a 'most important non-NATO ally' by the USA... Get serious, please.

I said “Kurds” not “PKK”.

As for Pakistan, it was a case of keeping one’s adversaries close, particularly if one needed to ensure that that adversary’s nuclear weapons were secure.


…why is the USA then not supporting the Free Syrian Army...?

Because the FSA’s priority would be to defeat pro-Assad forces, involve the U.S. in regime change – albeit the Syrian state has long since collapsed – and possibly burden the U.S. with occupation and reconstruction, while Daesh is still in the field. If Iran were not Assad’s primary backer, the U.S. could orchestrate a palace coup d’état for an Alawi leader content with an Alawi rump state. If the U.S. turns on the arms spigot to the FSA, Iran will simply intervene with regular forces. Remember Colin Powell’s Pottery Barn rule…

[CrowBat]

Well, Ankara has been fighting the PKK and PYD at the expense of the campaign against Daesh.,..No. Ankara was - for years - negotiating with the PKK, while at the same time calling for the USA and others of its Western allies to help it solve the situation in Syria. For years. In 2011, in 2012, in 2013, in 2014 etc.

The West refused, and - and against any logic - continued to ignore the situation in Syria even when millions of Syrians poured over the border into Turkey, an then continued pushing further west and north, putting the Turkish economy under immense strain.

And when this was not enough, the West ignored the Russians exporting at least 25.000 of their Wahhabists to Syria, where these joined the Daesh and Nusra - both of which came into being foremost thanks to the Assad regime.

And when that was not enough, the West - but the USA in particular - started acting as if Assad regime is entirely irrelevant, as if there is no popular uprising nor 'civil war' in Syria, as if there is no Iranian military intervention in Syria, and as if Turkey should neither have its own national interests inside Turkey, nor for its neighbourhood.

And when that was not enough, the US military - violating US laws - entered cooperation with the PKK, while using bases inside Turkey.

And when that was not enough, the Turks were told to shut up and tolerate the PKK, to shut up and tolerate 4 millions of Syrian refugees inside Turkey - and then also accused of cooperation with Nusra and Daesh, and this despite perfect clarity that Erdogan and his AKP are on the list of enemies of these two (visible also through the fact that the elements of Turkish society that do cooperate with the HTS, for example, stand in opposition to the AKP).

So, now replace 'Turkey' with 'USA' - or any other nation coming to your mind - and then tell me: who to hell would've tolerated that any more?


Interesting. Turkey is transformed from an empire into a republic and the Turkish nation and state are absolved of collective responsibility. That’s a neat trick.No, it is not. The blame for genocide of Armenians is on Turkey and Turks, no doubt about this. And, sooner or later, they'll accept their responsibility.

It's just a piss-poor excuse, misused for demonizing Turkey and completely ignoring Turkish interests. An act that's ruining relations between the West and that country for decades in advance.

Now tell me, please: in whose interest is that?


Who says that? That’s a ridiculous assertion.sigh... Do I really have to waste even more time with discussing that topic further in-depth, too...?

Get yourself at least 'Arabs and Israelis for Dummies', and read: everything is nicely based on documentation.


There was cleansing but not genocide. The aboriginals cleansed European settlers...'Aborigines' - in the USA...? Well, thanks for a reminder, but I didn't even try to add them to the equation.


Any other topics we can cover before we return to Turkey? I thought your soft spot was for Sunni Arabs...And you were wrong with thinking that way. My soft spot is humanity and freedom, and opposition to any kind of oppression. It just so happens that some of Sunni Arabs are between plenty of other people who are opressed.

But then, that's something you don't think about, and thus can't understand me.


On the contrary, the death toll of Arab and Palestinian civilians at Jewish and Israeli hands is fairly well-known. Most of the casualties inflicted by the Israelis were combatants.Oh, but 'sure'...


The point is that the Turks – not unlike the Russians – have difficulty with their history and collective responsibility...Wrong. Their governments have such problems, because both of them need chauvinists to keep themselves in power.


Such as who?Are you the government of the USA...? Any of European governments? At least representative for any such bodies...?

Not reading carefully or just taking things too personally?

Either way, I've got no time for that. So, just one more point:


Because the FSA’s priority would be to defeat pro-Assad forces... What's wrong with that?


...involve the U.S. in regime change – albeit the Syrian state has long since collapsed – and possibly burden the U.S. with occupation and reconstruction...Who told you that?


...while Daesh is still in the field.Aha, and what was first, FSyA or the Daesh?

I mean: is it too much to ask you to at least pay attention at the chronology, i.e. the time-line?

Are you really that poor at 'connecting dots' as to fail to understand that the Daesh could've been easily prevented by supporting the FSyA and removing Assad on time?


If Iran were not Assad’s primary backer, the U.S. could orchestrate a palace coup d’état for an Alawi leader content with an Alawi rump state....which wold change absolutely nothing.

But then, it's meanwhile typical for you - yes, this time: 'for you' - to be unable to think beyond, 'replacing one dictator of the minority through another dictator from the same minory'.


If the U.S. turns on the arms spigot to the FSA, Iran will simply intervene with regular forces.What 'regular forces', PLEASE?

Azor, would you like to tell me, you've really got not even that much clue about the Syrian civil war as to know a) it's not the Iranian military, but the IRGC - indeed: IRGC-QF - that's responsible for such Iranian operations like the one in Syria, b) this IRGC-QF deployed its first two 'regular' (IRGC) brigades to Syria already in 2012, and c) that Iran is running a full-blown military intervention in Syria at least since early 2013?

If so, sorry, but we need not discussing this topic until you inform yourself properly.

[CrowBat]

Major battle erupted inside the besieged insurgent-held pocket of Eastern Ghouta, on the south-eastern frindge of Damascus.

The reported developments are leaving me almost at lack of words. I'm lacking time to sort all of reports and extract the most important details, thus here 'just a collection of links' - from all possible kind of sources. The first two are Twitter-threads with plenty of details (I know, some might appear not particularly reliable, but check the content first and before gauging, please):

https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858096591848308739

https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/status/858306876034961408

...map, apparently showing the original control over the western part of Eastern Gouta by the FAR and the JAI:
https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/status/858306876034961408

...video, purportedly showing the JAI opening fire at protesting civilians:
https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858054735563280384

SOHR's report citing 74 KIA (for yesterday only):
https://twitter.com/syriahr/status/858372017262927872

...then over 90 within the first 48 hours:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/858615936688963588

JAI captures most of the Aftris from the FAR (Faylaq ar-Rahman, an FSyA-offshot):
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/status/858366867165114369

...HTS confirms 30+ casualties, JAI 20+, FAR ditto:
https://twitter.com/C_Military1/status/858282320477945856

JAI's statement:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/status/858627552373506050

...and another one, about 'extermination' of 'HTS' in Eastern Ghouta:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/status/858627552373506050

JAI besieging the FAR - thus leaving its units in Qaboun without food:
https://twitter.com/middleeastwars/status/858281132269424640

The regime exploiting the situation for its own advance:
https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/858372757469483008

...smoke from infighting in Ghouta visible all the way to Almazza:
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/status/858361894368931840

Overall picture seems to be as follows. There are two versions:

- The HTS says that on Friday, 28 April, a group of fighters arrived at a JAI checkpoint in East Ghouta... according to the HTS, some of the people in question were taken captive and then executed. HTS further claims that their headquarters were surrounded by JAI. Supposedly, the HTS was then put under sniper fire, which in turn hit some civilians too. According to the HTS, the JAI then broke into a number of homes, civilians were shot and/or beaten, and more civilians killed when they protested on the streets. Finally, the HTS was given 24 hours to exit the Eastern Ghouta.

- The JAI says the HTS consistently harassed convoys headed to fight against the regime in Damascus (a claim that HTS has made against JAI). Supposedly, they attempted to negotiate, but to no avail. Eventually, the JAI went into action. Today they released a separate statement which is particularly aggressive in its tune against the HTS: this is called a 'criminal faction', said it's going to be treated without any mercy, and anybody who distances from it is welcome.

Meanwhile, the JAI seems to run an 'extermination campaign' - against the HTS, foremost, but that of the FAR too.

Curiously, both of them have left the FAR out of their exchange - although the leader of the FAR was assassinated by the JAI, and a number of FAR fighters killed too.

[OUTLAW 09]

Rebels fired 65 #ATGM|s in April, highest since Summer 2016
- 75% in #Hama
- 89% are #TOW
- 38% by #FSA Jaish Izza
- 36% targets are armours

Clear footage from #Lataminah this morning.
#Assad's #BarrelBombs rain on the #Hama province town.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7NwxQaDxok#…

Towns in #Hama province are hit by massive #AssadPutin terror attacks - also over the past hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNvcOn9QuPA#…

Damascus: Rebels have killed #Assad Major Mohammed Jalal Merhi in besieged #Qaboun.

[OUTLAW 09]

@CJTFOIR / #US forces guarding the funeral of a #YPG/#PKK terrorist, killed by @NATO ally Turkey in N Syria.
See PKK&calan flags.

Imagine if those were, say, Hamas or Hizballah flags there. Think there'd be US political reaction to presence of US forces at the funeral?

In order to meet short-term objective of “defeating” #ISIS, the U.S has thrown itself into the middle of a 40-yr #Turkey-#PKK conflict.

This US-#YPG-#SDF-#Turkey-FSA business in N. #Syria is a **mess.**
Totally avoidable.
&
Totally predictable.
… And it will get worse.

Just watch & wait to see how the U.S. must now “own” what it’s created -- repeatedly using troops as peacekeepers & human shields in #Syria.

Remind me which part of the 2001 AUMF lets troops be trip wire peacekeepers between Turkey, Assad and the YPG.

IMPORTANT
Turkey apparently displeased U.S. troops at events with #PKK flags
http://v.aa.com.tr/808493#
says, "We may come overnight" against PYD/PKK.

[OUTLAW 09]

Major battle erupted inside the besieged insurgent-held pocket of Eastern Ghouta, on the south-eastern frindge of Damascus.

The reported developments are leaving me almost at lack of words. I'm lacking time to sort all of reports and extract the most important details, thus here 'just a collection of links' - from all possible kind of sources. The first two are Twitter-threads with plenty of details (I know, some might appear not particularly reliable, but check the content first and before gauging, please):

https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858096591848308739

https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/status/858306876034961408

...map, apparently showing the original control over the western part of Eastern Gouta by the FAR and the JAI:
https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/status/858306876034961408

...video, purportedly showing the JAI opening fire at protesting civilians:
https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858054735563280384

SOHR's report citing 74 KIA (for yesterday only):
https://twitter.com/syriahr/status/858372017262927872

...then over 90 within the first 48 hours:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/858615936688963588

JAI captures most of the Aftris from the FAR (Faylaq ar-Rahman, an FSyA-offshot):
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/status/858366867165114369

...HTS confirms 30+ casualties, JAI 20+, FAR ditto:
https://twitter.com/C_Military1/status/858282320477945856

JAI's statement:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/status/858627552373506050

...and another one, about 'extermination' of 'HTS' in Eastern Ghouta:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/status/858627552373506050

JAI besieging the FAR - thus leaving its units in Qaboun without food:
https://twitter.com/middleeastwars/status/858281132269424640

The regime exploiting the situation for its own advance:
https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/858372757469483008

...smoke from infighting in Ghouta visible all the way to Almazza:
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/status/858361894368931840

Overall picture seems to be as follows. There are two versions:

- The HTS says that on Friday, 28 April, a group of fighters arrived at a JAI checkpoint in East Ghouta... according to the HTS, some of the people in question were taken captive and then executed. HTS further claims that their headquarters were surrounded by JAI. Supposedly, the HTS was then put under sniper fire, which in turn hit some civilians too. According to the HTS, the JAI then broke into a number of homes, civilians were shot and/or beaten, and more civilians killed when they protested on the streets. Finally, the HTS was given 24 hours to exit the Eastern Ghouta.

- The JAI says the HTS consistently harassed convoys headed to fight against the regime in Damascus (a claim that HTS has made against JAI). Supposedly, they attempted to negotiate, but to no avail. Eventually, the JAI went into action. Today they released a separate statement which is particularly aggressive in its tune against the HTS: this is called a 'criminal faction', said it's going to be treated without any mercy, and anybody who distances from it is welcome.

Meanwhile, the JAI seems to run an 'extermination campaign' - against the HTS, foremost, but that of the FAR too.

Curiously, both of them have left the FAR out of their exchange - although the leader of the FAR was assassinated by the JAI, and a number of FAR fighters killed too.

CrowBat...agree about the infighting....

Crazy infighting in E #Ghouta now: 120+ killed in 2 days, so far.
Jaish al-Islam launched assaults on #HTS; Faylaq al-Rahman now involved.

This is just the latest flare up, resulting from Jaish al-Islam fearing rivals (#HTS this time) seek to undermine its dominance in #Ghouta.

Such infighting - bred by competition over resources & sociopolitical authority - is exacerbated by #Assad's ongoing siege on #Ghouta areas.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sipan Hemo, YPG Commander, states discussions ongoing for deployment of Russian forces at two more points in Efrn.

[OUTLAW 09]

@CJTFOIR / #US forces guarding the funeral of a #YPG/#PKK terrorist, killed by @NATO ally Turkey in N Syria.
See PKK&calan flags.

Imagine if those were, say, Hamas or Hizballah flags there. Think there'd be US political reaction to presence of US forces at the funeral?

In order to meet short-term objective of “defeating” #ISIS, the U.S has thrown itself into the middle of a 40-yr #Turkey-#PKK conflict.

This US-#YPG-#SDF-#Turkey-FSA business in N. #Syria is a **mess.**
Totally avoidable.
&
Totally predictable.
… And it will get worse.

Just watch & wait to see how the U.S. must now “own” what it’s created -- repeatedly using troops as peacekeepers & human shields in #Syria.

Remind me which part of the 2001 AUMF lets troops be trip wire peacekeepers between Turkey, Assad and the YPG.

IMPORTANT
Turkey apparently displeased U.S. troops at events with #PKK flags
http://v.aa.com.tr/808493#
says, "We may come overnight" against PYD/PKK.

Russia always liked PKK option generally: an old ally, gains de facto co-op with US. A quick run at Raqqa prob reverts to Assad control.

RT‏
Verified account
#Russia ‘fully ready’ to cooperate with US on Syria, 'count on Washington to demonstrate the same approach' - Lavrov
https://on.rt.com/8abm

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....that Trump redline is crossed again is it not.....AND the Trump TLAMs will not be far away will they...?????

BREAKING
Victims of #SAA terrorists barrel bombs filled with Toxic Gas over #Maar_Keba
#Hama cs #Syria Apr 30

Reports of suffocation