Russo-Ukraine War 2017 (January-April)

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Christian Borys
✔
@ItsBorys
Emerging from a week within the horrors of war in #Ukraine to read about what's happening in USA.

Now I just want to go back to war.

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Applies to much of what we talk about when referring to fascism....in Europe and in US.........

Worth reiterating this — on display at the US Holocaust museum: The early warning signs of fascism

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PERFECT SILENCE ALL ALONG THE MINSK 2 FRONT LINES.....

Russians must have run out of ammunition....awaiting the next Russian humanitarian aid convoy to bring in fresh munitions which is standard practice.....

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Crimea "has always been Russian" and there was no invasion, says Marine Le Pen
http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/02/01/france-intv-amanpour-marine-le-pen-b.cnn#

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PERFECT SILENCE ALL ALONG THE MINSK 2 FRONT LINES.....

Russians must have run out of ammunition....awaiting the next Russian humanitarian aid convoy to bring in fresh munitions which is standard practice.....

WHOA...in the middle of this ceasefire to repair critically needed civilian infrastructure...heat..electricity and water the Russians just started firing again prompting OSCE on site to tell the Russians to shut up and stop firing.....

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Ukrainians keep flooding #Avdiivka w/ aid. East Ukraine getting so much solidarity from rest of the country wouldn't be possible 4 yrs ago

So much for those that feel eastern Ukraine is lost to the separatists forever.....

Donbas war: Offensive against Ukraine near Avdiyivka on Saturday successfully repelled
http://www.unian.info/war/1760606-donbas-war-offensive-against-ukraine-near-avdiyivka-on-saturday-successfully-repelled.html#

The Chief from #Ukrainian side of the #JCCC Anatoliy Petrenko (Situation in #Avdiivka 04.02.17)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3LALn2ZcZk#

Relatively calm day yesterday in Eastern Ukraine, 51 attacks vs 115 the day before

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People lining up to donate blood in Dnipro today

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Trump's Amateurish White House Thinks Poland Invaded Belarus
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/04/trumps-white-house-thinks-poland-invaded-belarus.html#

I can't recall either Belarus or Russia complaining about "Polish incursions". Why is White House concerned (acc to AP)?

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Makeevka: Heavy artillery firing

#Mariupol: Mortar fire east of the city started

#Avdeevka: Ongoing incoming fire

Appears the Russian have gotten a new munitions resupply....


OSCE SMM Ukraine @OSCE_SMM
Lights on in Avdiivka. Joint efforts by the #OSCE SMM, JCCC and repair crews. Ceasefire must be maintained. End the fighting

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Highly likely detention of Kasperky Lab manager might have been due to his inability to stop UCA from hacking Surkov
https://informnapalm.org/en/cyberwar-purges-in-russian-cybersecurity-could-be-connected-to-surkovleaks/#

Interesting theory...actually....as UCA has not been stopped at all by anything Russia throws at them...

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110 Ukrainian soldiers were killed or wounded during last week's (pro-)#Russian offensive in E #Ukraine.

18 KIA
92 WIA

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Russia's state TV: #Ukraine can't join #NATO as long as it has any land disputes. Therefore, Ukraine will have to let go of #Crimea and Donbas.

Ah...know we full understand just why Russian annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine.....

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Incoming fire in #Makeevka and reports of BTR's and GRADs on the move. Getting hot again?

Ukraine begins broadcasting in the Tatar#language
http://www.odessatalk.com/2017/02/ukraine-begins-broadcasting-tatar-language/#

Shaltay had no connection to Kaspersky Lab (@Surkovleaks) or to hackers who hacked US election.
http://www.bbc.com/russian/features-38850589#

Ex-member of Shaltay doesn't rule out there were curators from Russian IC, ordered specific hacks.
http://www.bbc.com/russian/features-38850589#

Separatist Firing Locations near Water Treatment Plant - Satellite analysis of #Avdiivka fighting
https://medium.com/@DFRLab/separatist-firing-locations-near-water-treatment-plant-68aa19106734#.mbwhz6vmz#

New @DFRLab #MinskMonitor just published, analyzing January 31, 2017 satellite imagery near Yasynuvata & #Avdiivka

Separatists shelled Ukrainian troops from #Donetsk residential area – intercepted recording (AUDIO)
http://bit.ly/2lc998x

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Current Avdiivka front lines....
red line Russians mercenaries.......yellow and blue UAF......

Roughly .....not accurate due to opsec.....

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It also seems like the worst fighting is over for now.
#Ukraine stopped #Putin's henchmen from overrunning #Avdiivka.
The assault subsided.

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In Russia-occupied Donetsk a patriot flew Ukrainian flag. On a slag heap, Ukrainian defenders gave Russia the finger and flew Canadian flag.

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Fighting eases...whilst Russian Ground Forces logistics units resupply & RU General Staff awaits political orders

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Girkin / #Strelkov claims all PMC Wagner fallen bodies in #Syria are cremated in a mobile crematory.
https://twitter.com/dobrijdiadia/sta...5327719497728#

Despite how cynic it sounds (even for #Girkin) this is old & well used #Russian tactics to claim of no casualties.

In 2014 when # of Cargo-200 skyrocketed #Russia employed same tactics + body dumping into abandoned mine shafts.

NOTE:....Girkin should know as he led his merry band of 14 former and active duty spetsnaz out of Crimea into eastern Ukraine to start the so called "separatist" myth....

BTW....mobile crematories were reported in eastern Ukraine during the heavy fighting days of 2014/2015 and even photographed and geo located...and the MSM did not want to believe them....

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Battle of Avdiivka seems to be winding down after Trump & Poroshenko phone call yesterday. 27 killed.

BUT WAIT...and we are off again......

Period of silence over, fighting getting more intense again. Lot's of shelling reports from around #Donetsk, #Mariupol & #Stanitsya_Luhanska

[Azor]

Russian clandestine and numbers radio stations are extremely busy......

Priyom.org @priyom_org
13931kHz - Another E06, '305', start 0930z. Repeat of 0830z 10308kHz. Unusually busy morning in Russia.

14667kHz - E06 '351' start 0915z

Any ability to decipher?

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Any ability to decipher?

Russia still uses the old style one time encryption pads....assume though that NSA pays close attention .................and computing power being what it is today....vs years ago in my use days.....

BTW....the old security concept of one time encryption pads is still the most secure form of communication still used by US SOF....requires one to have the same pad and same start point and same encryption keys....and it is then easy to signal to the other end that you have been compromised ie captured and are being forced to transmit....

So the whole world can listen in but that is about it...

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UK journalist who was wounded in Avdiivka fighting interviewing this women....

Christopher Nunn @chrisnunnphoto
Finally tracked down the parents of Elena killed in #Avdiivka.They need support for the funeral PLEASE DONATE

For a great cause as he survived the Russian shelling....she did not and it was in the middle of his video reporting session...her apartment was hit by heavy artillery...

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BreakingFootage
#Mariupol "last night"
Regiment #Azov goes back to the front after not being deployed for 18 months
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEeUGdDR6hA#

This unit was the only unit in 2014 that held back the Russian mercenaries from entering Mariupol in 2014/2015....

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IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT

Multiple
http://social.media
reports by #Makiivka residents about #Russia'n-separ. milit. convoys moving through the city to #Yasynuvata

Donbas sees escalation amid 94 militant attacks, 5 WIA's in last day

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SBU: Plotnitsky with another from "LNR" abt how they downed UKR IL-76 in Luhansk airport
https://youtu.be/iPNTfTaMb-o

https://ssu.gov.ua/ua/news/1/category/2/view/2679#sthash.B83J3XjU.leWX6ifm.dpbs#

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@YaleGlobal on how #Russia uses soft power & hybrid warfare to dominate the post-#Soviet region:
http://goo.gl/gq6fuq

Ukrainians line up to donate blood for victims of RU shelling in #Avdiivka/Avdeevka.
No one'll break this nation.

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Russian Army TV lies that "Ukrainian military ordered to bombard Mariupol with artillery"
https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/status/828649768805081088 …

If Russia's not invaded #Ukraine, WHY is it burying 1,000s of soldiers there & smuggling out dead soldiers?
https://youtu.be/SxuB3YBVgaI

Russian 247 Air Assault Regiment on mission in Starobesheve, Ukraine, August 2014. More -
https://informnapalm.org/en/nov29-donbass-247/ …

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Decrease of Russian propaganda activity about Ukraine after Avdiivka maximum

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D-30's are shelling from #Vuhlehirsk

Evidence that Russian regular units were fighting in Ukraine since at least 11th of August 2014.
Refer photo

Evidence that invasion of Russian regular troops into Ukraine began BEFORE 24.08.2014.
Refer photo1

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Evidence abound proving that Russian invasion in Ukraine began BEFORE 24.08.2014. Many RU KIAs are of August 12-13.

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General Clark: „More than half of OSCE monitors in East Ukraine are just Russian Military personnel…“

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ATTENTION!
The Russian Army channel predicts an Ukrainian artillery attack on Ukrainian-held #Mariupol!
http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201702061953-ndt2.htm …

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U.S. Preps for Infowar on Russia
http://thebea.st/2kcdTdu

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9PM - Heavy outgoing fire from #Horlivka, flashes towards north.

Now also shelling audible in #Toretsk

Shelling also audible in Krynychna

Meanwhile, Russian Ground Forces logistics & transport battalions continue to replenish, resupply and repair DPR/LPR
https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/828660099392614401 …

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Russia cranks up lie machine claiming "apartheid" regime in Latvia--odd that Russians there don't emigrate to Russia
http://www.pravda.ru/video/politics/21324.html …

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Hell freezes over: guest blames Russia for war in Ukraine on Russian state TV live [VIDEO]
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/06/hell-freezes-over-guest-blames-russia-for-war-in-ukraine-on-russian-state-tv-live/ …

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21:06 #Horlivka @062_Region #Mykyrivka direction rumbled with something powerful, and strange green flashes. Now it's been loud at #Stroitel

21:55 #Popasna @hu_popa "Booms, booms, booms. In short, good evening"

21:55 #Mariupol @Jonsonal72 Loud booms are heard

21:54 #Mariupol @zanzy1975 "Incoming artillery in the area of #Shrokyne by sound, it sounds very loud for the #left_bank[=E]"

21:53 #Mariupol @sir_T_Lawrence Tough rumble in #Shyrokyne direction. Howitzers

21:56 #Yenakiieve @ZloyEnakievec They shell from 4 points by turns. 2 in Horlivka, 2 in #Yenakiieve

22:07 #Horlivka @tgorlovka They keep firing. Heavy [artillery] in the W-NW

22:10 #Kadiivka @pro100_zen Loud. Outgoing [rounds]

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22:19 #Svitlodarsk Bulge @_svetlik__ Tough fighting

Intense battle in #Svitlodarsk_Bulge now.


22:19 #Holubivka @thisnameerror #Kalynove rumbles and 120 mm shells fly, #Bakhmut road rumbles too

Shelling in #Popasna area already since a couple of hours now.

[Azor]

I've harped on about Belarus and Kazakhstan for some time, and it was encouraging to see Michael Kofman of CNA recently agree with me that Russia was more concerned about Belarus than the Baltic republics.

Here is an article from WIB on increasing Russian-Belorussian tensions: https://warisboring.com/belarus-prepares-for-hybrid-war-as-europes-last-dictator-knocks-russia-86384fd2a468#.jzj2wk180

My response to the article would be to say that Russia has had past tensions with Lukashenko, Yanukovych and other allies or clients.

Selected excerpts:


Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, often called “the last dictator in Europe,” had long kept his country aligned politically, economically and militarily close to Russia. But this relationship deteriorated after the Russian invasion of Crimea — and as Lukashenko began to hedge, albeit slowly and very cautiously, toward the West.

In a more than seven-hour news conference on Feb. 3, 2017, Lukashenko blasted Russia for reimposing border controls — a response to Belarus relaxing visa rules for foreign visitors — and categorically rejected a Russian plan to build an air base on Belarusian soil.

Lukashenko also ordered the arrest of Russia’s top food safety official, and accused Russian president Vladimir Putin of “practically appointing Trump.” The strongman further criticized Russia for sharply cutting oil exports to Belarus.

And on Feb. 5, the Belarusian strongman gave kudos to a “fraternal Ukraine” which is “fighting for its independence” — noting that he was referring to an economic fight. Just days before, the Belarusian military conducted a large readiness test.

Separately, these reports — especially the one sourced from Donald Trump’s White House — and Lukashenko’s knocks on Russia are noteworthy. In a series, they’re quite remarkable. TV Rain, a Russian independent news channel, described the row as the “worst crisis” between Belarus and Russia in their recent history.

Lukashenko has begun to experiment. Liberal advocates from the West now meet with Belarusian officials, which was unprecedented until recently. But Belarusians are hurting. Russia has cut its oil exports to Belarus by half, and pushing too fast on reforms could threaten the stability of Lukashenko’s regime.

“With the status quo of the past two decades looking increasingly unsustainable, some regard his predicament as unenviably similar to that of Mikhail Gorbachev in the 1980s,” Foreign Policy observed in September 2016.

Fortunately for Lukashenko, Western countries have given up on trying to reform his authoritarian ways, and in 2016 the European Union lifted most sanctions it imposed because of the regime’s abysmal human rights record.
Meanwhile, Russian state-controlled media outlets have aired speculative stories that the West could topple the Belarusian government or provoke instability. Irredentist, nationalist commentators have even taken to advocating for the absorption of Belarus’ territory … by force, if necessary.

Russia may also seek to deploy troops in Belarus to match a NATO tank buildup in Poland. But what happens if Lukashenko says no?
The Belarusian military with its 48,000 active duty soldiers and airmen — plus an additional 289,500 reservists — would have a difficult time resisting Russia.

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7:06AM #Avdiivka hearing heavy single incomings.

7:23AM #Starohnativka #Staroignatievka
"Fun morning, the shelling continues"

Artillery duel near #Berezove.
~1 hour ago

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Artillery in #Horlivka last night
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PooSu7r_iI#
…
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/6-february-artillery-in-horlivka-tonight#

InformNapalm: geolocation of provocation shelling of house in #Donetsk by Russian forces
pic.twitter.com/sJn1tdTXcT
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/6-february-informnapalm-geolocation-of-provocation-shelling#

[Azor]

https://jamestown.org/program/russias-little-war-ukraine-not-help-kremlin-befriend-trump/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 13
By: Pavel K. Baev


The sharp escalation in artillery battles in the Donbas (eastern Ukraine) war zone one day after the January 28 telephone conversation between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was certainly not a coincidence. No leaks about the content of the 45-minute-long exchange have appeared in the Russian media, and the official summary amounts to mere platitudes. But the anticipation had been extraordinarily intense (see EDM, January 30). Commentaries about a possible lifting of sanctions came so thick that for the first time in years, it was not Putin’s name that was mentioned most often in the Russian media but the name of a foreign leader (Interfax, February 1; see EDM, January 2). Public opinion surveys have duly registered the quick decline in Russians’ negative attitudes toward the US, from the peak of 81 percent in early 2015, down to 49 percent now. Of these unfavorably inclined Russians, only 9 percent expressed a strongly negative attitude, compared with 39 percent two years ago (Levada.ru, February 2). Ukraine is presently seen in Russia in a darker light than the US, with 15 percent expressing a strongly negative attitude; and this perception quite possibly informs the behavior of the combatants enduring a harsh winter in the Donbas trenches.

The two-year-old ceasefire in eastern Ukraine has never been stable, and tensions were building for weeks before exploding in the massive cannonade during the closing days of January (Novaya Gazeta, January 31). It is possible, but improbable, that an order to open fire from the big guns came directly from Moscow—or for that matter from Kyiv. It is certain, however, that junior officers and minor warlords on the ground have plentiful incentives to take military matters into their own hands (Republic.ru, February 2). For Ukraine, it is important to ensure that this tragic war is not forgotten in the West; and for the motley Russia-backed rebels, it is essential to establish they are a key party to this major European conflict (Polit.ru, February 2). The degree of control over the tactical situations along the “ceasefire” line by the top brass in Moscow is uncertain, but Russia surely could have stopped the shelling of civilian targets in Avdiivka—and did not (Novaya Gazeta, February 2). This industrial satellite of Donetsk is of no great strategic importance, but it is perfectly positioned to test the changes in the big political picture of this deadlocked war (RBC, February 1).

The Kremlin put the blame for the Avdiivka battle squarely on Ukraine, emphasizing that this war was not a topic of conversation between Putin and Trump (Newsru.com, February 1). That omission kept the Russian war-maker-in-chief in the dark about the position of the new US “decider.” Putin wanted to be sure that Trump really did not care about the Ukrainian calamity (RBC, February 3). But what he ultimately heard from Washington days later was not quite the message he had hoped for: Nikki Haley, the newly-appointed US ambassador to the United Nations, spelled out in her first statement at the UN Security Council a “strong and clear condemnation of Russian aggressive actions” (Moscow Echo, February 3). The artillery duels are still raging, but the intensity has since remarkably subsided.

What made the timing of that surge in fighting rather unfortunate for Putin was that the Iranian leadership decided the moment was right for a ballistic missile test. The response from Trump’s skeleton administration was swift and demonstratively tough: the US Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions targeting 13 persons and 12 companies, including from China (Kommersant, February 3). In the agitated domestic US political arena, this step is unusually uncontroversial, and Defense Secretary James Mattis followed it up by calling Iran the world’s main sponsor of terrorism (RBC, February 4). This resolute stance puts the carefully cultivated Russian-Iranian proto-partnership under pressure (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 3). The Kremlin had announced preparations for a visit to Moscow of Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. But now, such a good-neighborly meeting becomes quite awkward and unhelpful for Russia’s much-desired improvement of relations with the United States (RIA Novosti, January 31). The war in Syria is the only “marketplace” where Putin has assets for bargaining with Trump. Yet, without Iran, the Russian plan for pacifying Syria by empowering President Bashar al-Assad’s embattled regime cannot work.

Another disturbed political arena where the Ukrainian crisis resonated most strongly is Europe, and Putin’s intrigues on this continent combine the export of corruption with cyberattacks (RBC, February 3). He paid a visit to Hungary last week (February 2) seeking to reward those European leaders who remain on speaking terms with him (Kommersant, February 3). He is also keen to hear how these leaders respond to Trump’s casually skeptical attitude toward the European Union (Novaya Gazeta, February 2). The sound of big guns reminds the fidgety Europeans about the need to unite in the face of a direct threat, so Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has been able to reenergize his cause. The escalation of fighting in Donbas forced him to cut short the visit to Germany but reinforced his proposition to hold a referendum on Ukraine’s application for joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Gazeta.ru, February 2). Germany is certainly the main force behind formulating the EU’s policy response to each new crisis, and Putin is keen to add to the visible discord between his resourceful opponent, Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Trump (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 3).

A violent spasm in the unwinnable war could have accentuated Europe’s fatigue with the Ukrainian mess and illuminated US indifference to it—but it actually did not. Putin can shrug off this episode and wait for another opportunity, but his best chance to influence the mapping of the course in Washington may actually be now, while many choices are still in flux. The seasoned politician Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka may feel that time is not exactly on Putin’s side. During Lukashenka’s seven-hour-long press conference last Friday (February 3), one particular point that stood out was the firm rejection of a proposal for establishing a Russian airbase in Belarus (Newsru.com, February 3). Today’s Russia is not rich or generous enough to buy friends, and neither is it intimidating enough to induce submission. As long as Ukraine is able to withstand the aggression and fight back, other European states can feel relatively safe. But every sign of a crack in transatlantic solidarity is an invitation for Russia to try another test.

[OUTLAW 09]

Kremlin turns Donbas aggression on & off like a tap. Evidence: Over 200 trucks munitions & fuel crossing Russian border B4 recent escalation

Trump "doesn't know" who is controlling Russian-backed separatists in #Ukraine. Probably shouldn't have rejected those intel briefings then

Note the tone coming out of Germany.....

Editors of @SPIEGEL_English not fooling around

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Kremlin announces a "very important phone call to be made by Putin today", no other news given.

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Kissinger calls for recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, treating Crimean Tatars as invisible ppl.
http://neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/2254-kissinger-s-edict-on-crimea#

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Trump on the recent, intense fighting in #Avdiivka: "We don't really know exactly what that is."
https://nyti.ms/2jWrNzt
#

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A flow of misinformed and misguided analysis dumbing down #Ukraine's position on the #Donbas war continues.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/06/its-not-just-putin-fueling-war-in-ukraine-trump-donbas/?utm_content=buffera7784&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#

Separatist ex-cdr Bezler calls upon Donetsk "People's Republic" leader to resign: "Be a man, stop being top clown"
https://vk.com/wall283528124_252#

[OUTLAW 09]

https://informnapalm.org/en/russia-paving-way-admitting-polite-military-invasion-ukraine/

Is Russia paving the way for admitting its “polite” military invasion of Ukraine?


Russia has changed its official stance on many issues many times. One can hardly expect anything else from a country whose past is rewritten by every new ruler. Presumably, we’ve encountered a situation when Russia will start admitting its involvement in the war against Ukraine. However, they will be doing it gradually and with the familiar cynicism.

Putin has been telling stories about the local “people’s militia” in Crimea with the uniform and equipment purchased from a “surplus shop” since the very onset of war against Ukraine. However, he admitted later that the Ukrainian military units were blocked and disarmed by Russia’s regular forces; InformNapalm—international intelligence community—covered details of the Crimea occupation operation in its OSINT studies a number of times.

Gradually, Russian “political technologists” seem to start paving the way for the admission of the Russian military incursion in Ukraine. Local separatists, numerous Russian mercenaries, and Novorossia advocates have always been aware of the presence of the Russian regular troops and equipment. They’ve even coined a special term — Northerly Wind — to refer to this.

Russians — and Soviets before them — frequently replace conventional terms with some oblique euphemisms or come up with an altogether new terms. For instance, all Soviet Union’s military operations abroad were referred to as “brotherly assistance” or “international duty” in spite of their being acts of aggression and intervention in fact.

Military equipment supply to Donbas is referred to as the Voentorg (“military surplus shop”); Russian troops are known as Otpuskniki (“vacationers”) or Ikhtamnet (“they-are-not-there”) etc. This substitution of terms is a fine psychological move. For instance, the Russian media pushed the term “little green men” upon us, and we have accepted this euphemism instead of referring to the Russian Army.

Is it mere coincidence or a result of the conscious effort of professional media psychologists?

Putin’s jocular reference to rumors of Donald Trump’s adventures in Moscow is a recent example of such substitutions. The word “prostitute” would sound too gross, direct and confrontational, but a comment about “girls with reduced social responsibility” made the media almost ecstatically happy. So, is it mere coincidence or yet another result of the conscious effort of professional media psychologists?

However, let us get back to the Russians’ attempts to make overtures for the admission of the fact of involvement of the Russian military in the War in Donbas. Political scientist Sergey Markov made a statement on Osoboye Mneniye show on Echo of Moscow radio.

His style of speech is somewhat reminiscent of Zhirinovsky at the early stage of his political career. They play similar roles by voicing ideas that have been hatched by the Kremlin, but are too outrageous to be officially announced.

“Yeah, I believe there are “surplus shop” supplies, there are some “vacationers”. According to my sources, there were two “vacations” of one week each. Do you remember that critical moment with the encirclement at Ilovaisk? Indeed, there were some vacationers there, who, so to say, contributed to tightening the noose at Ilovaisk, and they also helped later with the encirclement at Debaltseve. Otherwise, everything has been done by the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) army which Stockholm Institute of Strategic Studies ranked, I believe, fifth or sixth in Europe in terms of its potential.”
#
One can readily notice the euphemisms, such as “vacationers” or “surplus shop”. Markov effectively admits the participation of the Russian military in the war against Ukraine in both Ilovaisk and Debaltseve. So, Russians are trying to console us instead of admitting the fact of the aggression: Yes, there was some involvement but only twice. And “just a bit” doesn’t count.
Russian agitprop might gradually move to such an interpretation of this war with time. For the first three years, Russians kept demanding proofs (“Where’s the evidence?!”) However, the rhetoric can change gradually along the lines of their being unable to stand aloof and having to intervene twice. Merely twice. Many Western partners would even be glad to “accept” this version.

However, let us recall that the first officially recognized Russian POW Andrey Balobanov was captured by the Ukrainian Army on July 16 or 17, 2014, one month before the Battle of Ilovaisk; two more Russian soldiers—Petr Khokhlov and Ruslan Garafiyev—were captured in early August. Both these events occurred before the Battle of Ilovaisk.

GRU special forces soldiers Aleksandr Aleksandrov and Yevgeniy Yerofeyev were captured on May 16, 2015, long after the Battle of Debaltseve. Russian Army major Vladimir Starkov was taken captive in summer 2015, also long after Debaltseve.

InformNapalm analysts have been observing activities of Russian troops in Ukraine from the very beginning of the war until now.

In addition to the regular infantry, there is regular technical military personnel deployed to Donbas on a permanent basis to maintain sophisticated equipment in service only with the Russian Army.

It is important for Ukraine to steal initiative at a right moment and demonstrate their permanent presence. Interestingly, it was after the presentation of our group’s materials to the NATO and the OSCE that LPR and DPR propagandists became more active trying to discredit investigations pursued by the Ukrainian volunteers.

Sooner or later, courts will pass their judgements. Sooner or later, courts will resolve that Russia has been supplying arms to Donbas. Sooner or later, the Northerly Wind will be called the regular Russian Army. And sooner or later, Russia will have to pay reparations to Ukraine for the military aggression and inflicted damage. And this agression will not be reduced to the two episodes.

This publication was prepared by Anton Pavlushko, translated by#Oleksandr Ivanov, edited by Artem Velichko

[OUTLAW 09]

Latest combat video from front line trenches in #Avdiivka, eastern #Ukraine how Ukrainians repel Rus proxies' attack
http://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/28294572.html

[OUTLAW 09]

I've harped on about Belarus and Kazakhstan for some time, and it was encouraging to see Michael Kofman of CNA recently agree with me that Russia was more concerned about Belarus than the Baltic republics.

Here is an article from WIB on increasing Russian-Belorussian tensions: https://warisboring.com/belarus-prepares-for-hybrid-war-as-europes-last-dictator-knocks-russia-86384fd2a468#.jzj2wk180

My response to the article would be to say that Russia has had past tensions with Lukashenko, Yanukovych and other allies or clients.

Selected excerpts:

Will Belarus Be Putin’s Next Victim?
Another Kremlin-driven crisis may be coming to Eastern Europe

http://observer.com/2017/02/belarus-national-security-nato-vladimir-putin/


Belarus rarely makes it into Western news reports, and hardly ever in a positive way. Governed since 1994 by Aleksandr Lukashenka, a Soviet-era throwback strongman—in a perfect touch, he once ran a Communist collective farm—Belarus for decades has been bemoaned as Europe’s last dictatorship thanks to its poor human rights record and less than democratic ways.

Lukashenka has shown little interest in currying Western favor until quite recently. His regime, guided by the strong hand of the secret police—still termed the KGB in fully Soviet fashion—has imprisoned and occasionally disappeared journalists and politicians who get on Lukashenka’s bad side. As full-time Soviet nostalgists, the regime and its leader have pined for days of lost Communist glory, and efforts at liberalization of the economy and society have made little progress in Minsk.

The ramshackle Belarusian economy remains mired in statist inefficiencies, and the only thing that has kept Lukashenka afloat all these years has been Kremlin help. Vladimir Putin long courted Minsk with loans and low prices on imported Russian energy, in exchange receiving Belarus as a vital buffer state against NATO and the West.

Its geographic location, bordering on three members of the Atlantic Alliance—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—gives Belarus an undeniable importance to Russia, one which has only increased since 2014, when Moscow’s ties to NATO soured after Putin annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine. Given perennial Russian fears of invasion from the west, Belarus looms large in Moscow’s military imagination—and war plans.
In practice, the Kremlin has long considered Belarus hardly more than an extension of Russia in security terms.

For years, relations between Moscow and Minsk have been close in defense and intelligence matters, and joint military exercises with Russian and Belarusian forces have been commonplace. Since the latter uses Russian weapons and defense doctrine, and both armies speak the same language, the Kremlin has considered Belarusian forces to be fully interoperable with its own. In Russian war planning, Minsk’s military has counted in the Kremlin’s numbers.

That is changing, however, and the resulting alteration in the strategic balance in Eastern Europe has set off alarm bells in Moscow. There is irony here, since for years it was Lukashenka who wanted closer ties to the Kremlin, not the other way around, even expressing a desire for full political union with Mother Russia. Yet Putin was careful about getting too chummy with the dictator in Minsk, whose unsavory human rights record caused bad headlines on a touchy subject where Moscow didn’t need additional attention from Western governments and NGOs.

The White House is either parroting ridiculous Russian fake news or it is consciously pushing Kremlin disinformation on our Intelligence Community.
Over the last couple years, however, Lukashenka has been quietly distancing himself from his longtime patron, seeking discreet ties with the West. Here the Kremlin’s reducing some of its financial aid to Belarus—for instance, cutting back supplies of cheap oil—has been a key factor.

In reply, Minsk’s position on controversial topics like Ukraine has grown less supinely pro-Russian than Putin expects from longtime clients. Lukashenka’s increasingly pro-Ukrainian position is now out in the open, as revealed by his recent statement that “brotherly Ukraine” is fighting for its independence. Although the Minsk strongman was politic enough to omit whom his neighbor is struggling for independence from, the message was received clearly in Moscow.

Relations between Moscow and Minsk are now on the verge of full-blown crisis. Last week, Lukashenka said that the new airbase which Putin plans to put in his country to serve the Russian air force wasn’t going to happen, lashing out at Moscow in an epic press conference that lasted more than seven hours and brimmed with anti-Kremlin sentiments. In response to deteriorating relations, Moscow has reinstated border controls on its western frontier.

The previously unguarded frontier with Belarus will now be patrolled by the Federal Security Service, Putin’s powerful FSB.

Lukashenka is deeply worried that the displeased Kremlin may try to overthrow his regime, replacing him with someone more pliant to Putin’s wishes. Minsk fears the sudden appearance of Little Green Men, saboteurs and terrorists from Russian intelligence, the shadowy operatives who led the invasion of Crimea three years ago, trying to evict him from power. Here

Lukashenka’s fears are entirely valid, and he faces the difficult predicament that, given the exceptionally close ties between his KGB and Kremlin security services – most Belarusian security higher-ups have been trained in Russian spy schools—he can’t be sure who in Minsk is really on his side.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that Lukashenka is flexing his muscles right now, trying to send a message of strength while assessing who in Belarus is loyal to whom. There’s a major military exercise underway right now that includes building obstacles on the main highway that runs from Minsk to the Russian border.

Reservists have been called up for these exercises, including retired military officers returned to service, to practice stemming a possible Russian invasion.

Arseniy Sivitskiy, director of Minsk’s Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, which is Belarus’ only think-tank devoted to such matters, in a new interview suggests that Putin may be using the current chaos in Washington, with the still-forming Trump administration seemingly at sea about which direction its foreign policy will take, to move against Lukashenka.

What’s coming may range from subversion and intimidation by Russian intelligence to all-out invasion, according to Sivitskiy. Although Sivitsky doubts that the worst-case scenario will happen, the real nightmare is that Moscow may resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons against NATO if any aggression against Belarus does not go according to Russian plans.

Then there’s the knotty issue of what exactly the White House would do. Belarus isn’t in NATO and it cannot expect overt Western help against Putin.

But would President Trump do anything at all in the event of Russian aggression against yet another neighbor? The new administration’s repeated public fawning over the Kremlin, plus its exceptionally tepid support for Ukraine as fighting increases there between the Russian military and Kyiv’s forces, provide ample room to wonder which side Trump is really on here.

Not to mention the weird question which the White House recently asked the Intelligence Community about Belarus. According to a new AP report, “national security aides have sought information about Polish incursions in Belarus.”

It should be noted that Poland, a stalwart NATO member, has conducted zero incursions into Belarus, and the notion is frankly bizarre outside the paranoid halls of the Kremlin and pro-Russian websites that seek to stir up anti-NATO sentiments with fake news.

However, Polish military incursions into Belarus have featured prominently in recent Russian military exercises, namely ZAPAD (West) 2009 and 2013, where a Drang nach Osten by Warsaw was the exercise scenario—twice.

Therefore, the White House is either parroting ridiculous Russian fake news or it is consciously pushing Kremlin disinformation on our Intelligence Community.

Neither option bodes well for security and stability in Europe right now. Belarus is on NATO’s doorstep, unlike Crimea or eastern Ukraine, and the possibility for any military crisis there spiraling dangerously out of control is real. It would be best for all sides if any such crisis is averted before it unfolds.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia actively reinforcing separatist proxies in occupied eastern #Ukraine, preparing for new offensive - Turchynov
https://www.unian.ua/war/1764746-rosiya-aktivno-perekidae-na-donbas-tehniku-i-soldativ-rnbo.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine asking Berlin to replace its Amb for pro-Kremlin sttmnts about #Donbas
https://www.unian.ua/politics/1764672-geraschenko-vimagae-vid-posla-frn-sprostuvati-zayavu-pro-vibori-na-donbasi-v-umovah-okupatsiji.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia continues preparing for long-distance deployment of forces against the West
https://sputniknews.com/military/201702071050418501-russia-aerospace-forces-snap-checks/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Your face when Sergey Markov says: "Donbas seceded part of Ukraine"

[OUTLAW 09]

US Air Force Global Hawk #UAV #drone
Over Donetsk, #Ukraine at 53,000ft heading towards the Russian border...

[OUTLAW 09]

18:46 #Popasna @hu_popa Loud evening has started somehow early today... Booms in full swing

[OUTLAW 09]

19:42 #Bryanka @GirkinGirkin It's loud, flashes are seen fr/#Kadiivka direction

19:49 #Svitlodarsk #Bulge @_svetlik__ +++ [=plus stands for an incoming round]

19:47 [#Debaltseve?] @fipagen Fr/#Hrozne[=
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=48.292045&lon=38.312073&z=14&m=b&show=/13309819#
They've started to shell towards #Svitlodarsk again

19:42 #Kadiivka @GenjiAlex "F*....k, kind of armageddon here. Like #Kalynove"

19:45 #Lysychansk @lisichanskiy Tracers in the sky, UAV is being shot down in #Komyshevakha. #Bakhmut road - #Popasna: incoming in 2 dir'ns

20:01 #Horlivka @tgorlovka Fr/NE heavy guns are heard, loud

20:01 #Horlivka @UAhorlivka They fire, it rumbles like thunder claps fr/N, outgoing fire

[OUTLAW 09]

Don't tell Ukrainian soldiers they should not respond when Russia fires 330 tonnes of shells/rockets at them!
http://uk.mfa.gov.ua/ua/press-center/news/54490-ukraines-ambassador-in-the-uk-natalia-galibarenko-statement-of-both-sides-are-responsible-for-the-escalation-in-eastern-ukraine-anglijsykoju-movoju#

[davidbfpo]

I am trying to keep the Ukraine at War thread focused on events within the war, with some other factors. So I have just moved six posts on Russian military activity and the speculation on the future of Belarus to here.:wry:

[OUTLAW 09]

FIghting near #Adviivka yesterday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqA16duzC6M#
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/7-february-fighting-at-adviivka-today-russian-forces-attack#

Day 1086: 1 Ukrainian Soldier Wounded, 1 Teenager Killed in Russia-Backed Shelling; Avdeyevka Struggles to Repair
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-1086/#16083

[OUTLAW 09]

The apparent assassination of leading "separatists" of the first generation...those entering with and working with Girkin continue to die in unexplained bomb attacks......

DPR commander Mikhail Tolstoy, known as "Givi" was assassinated in #Donetsk this morning multiple pro Russian sources report

Pro Russian sources say Givi was killed by a bomb explosion in his office

Statement from #Zakharchenko blaming #Ukraine for Givi's death in 3..2..1..

Here we go: #DPR chief Zaharchenko convenes emergency meeting on death of Givi
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/8-february-dnr-chief-zaharchenko-convenes-emergency-meeting#…

The "Commander of Battalion Somalia" was killed in a "suicide attack", the "Operational Command of the People's Republic of Donetsk" says.

I remember Zaharchenko vowing he will march to #Kiev after Motorola assassination. Expect smth similar. It only matters what Russia wants.

Pro-Russian sources say Ukrainian terrorist, war criminal and world-class dancer Mikhail Tolstykh aka. "Givi" killed in Donetsk

Yes, a stealth Ukro-DRG infiltrated in the Somali gang base with a RPO Shmel and made the perfect shot

[OUTLAW 09]

"Assassination of Givi. Video from the terror scene."
This is how GRU spins outcome of their operation. Laconically. Like a news like.

Since start of Avdiivka clashes rumors that Givi wounded himself to avoid fighting+threats from fellow militants

'Givi' is latest in long line of military separatist leaders to be killed. Ukraine's security service? Infighting? or someone else?

[OUTLAW 09]

Another provocative shelling of apartment building in Donetsk:
https://informnapalm.org/en/another-provocative-shelling-apartment-building-donetsk/#

[OUTLAW 09]

"Assassination of Givi. Video from the terror scene."
This is how GRU spins outcome of their operation. Laconically. Like a news like.

Since start of Avdiivka clashes rumors that Givi wounded himself to avoid fighting+threats from fellow militants

'Givi' is latest in long line of military separatist leaders to be killed. Ukraine's security service? Infighting? or someone else?

Givi before the war as a grocery store security guard. Got sacked.

[OUTLAW 09]

US "Alt-right" Richard Spencer's wife and Alexander Dugin's interpreter Nina Kouprianova already blamed Kyiv.

"Alt-truth"

BTW...Spencer has been a strong white supremacist vocal supporter of Trump...Bannon and Breitbart.com....and quoted often in Alex Jones's Infowars.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Legal News: Did Russia Just Legalize PMSC’s?
http://feraljundi.com/9166/legal-news-did-russia-just-legalize-pmscs/#.WJrb52LpxNs.twitter#

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Hardly any militant TV star of Debaltseve operation left, except for Zakharchenko


Debaltseve attack was actually pushed by the Russian mercenaries that in the end needed 7K Russian troops to final capture it...with heavy loses to Cossack units.....

[OUTLAW 09]

89 attacks yesterday, 6 Ukrainian soldiers wounded

[Azor]

The apparent assassination of leading "separatists" of the first generation...those entering with and working with Girkin continue to die in unexplained bomb attacks......

DPR commander Mikhail Tolstoy, known as "Givi" was assassinated in #Donetsk this morning multiple pro Russian sources report

Pro Russian sources say Givi was killed by a bomb explosion in his office

Statement from #Zakharchenko blaming #Ukraine for Givi's death in 3..2..1..

Here we go: #DPR chief Zaharchenko convenes emergency meeting on death of Givi
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/8-february-dnr-chief-zaharchenko-convenes-emergency-meeting#…

The "Commander of Battalion Somalia" was killed in a "suicide attack", the "Operational Command of the People's Republic of Donetsk" says.

I remember Zaharchenko vowing he will march to #Kiev after Motorola assassination. Expect smth similar. It only matters what Russia wants.

Pro-Russian sources say Ukrainian terrorist, war criminal and world-class dancer Mikhail Tolstykh aka. "Givi" killed in Donetsk

Yes, a stealth Ukro-DRG infiltrated in the Somali gang base with a RPO Shmel and made the perfect shot

Good riddance. Givi was a piece of trash war criminal who abused and killed POWs and desecrated corpses. He and Motorola are enjoying good company in Hell.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ex DNR speaker Purgin says Givi's murder will inflame war. Similar threats made after Motorola's death proved empty
https://tvrain.ru/teleshow/here_and_now/simvol_opolchentsa-427200/#

Was in fact a thermobaric RPG round....that exploded in his office.....office was completely burnt out....shades of GRU Spetsnaz history.....

Givi's assassination brought to daylight atrocities #Russian SOF did during 2004 Beslan school siege - morons used thermobaric warheads!
186 children killed by burning....

[Azor]

The apparent assassination of leading "separatists" of the first generation...those entering with and working with Girkin continue to die in unexplained bomb attacks......

DPR commander Mikhail Tolstoy, known as "Givi" was assassinated in #Donetsk this morning multiple pro Russian sources report

Pro Russian sources say Givi was killed by a bomb explosion in his office

Statement from #Zakharchenko blaming #Ukraine for Givi's death in 3..2..1..

Here we go: #DPR chief Zaharchenko convenes emergency meeting on death of Givi
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/8-february-dnr-chief-zaharchenko-convenes-emergency-meeting#…

The "Commander of Battalion Somalia" was killed in a "suicide attack", the "Operational Command of the People's Republic of Donetsk" says.

I remember Zaharchenko vowing he will march to #Kiev after Motorola assassination. Expect smth similar. It only matters what Russia wants.

Pro-Russian sources say Ukrainian terrorist, war criminal and world-class dancer Mikhail Tolstykh aka. "Givi" killed in Donetsk

Yes, a stealth Ukro-DRG infiltrated in the Somali gang base with a RPO Shmel and made the perfect shot

Do you think that it was a suicide attack or a hit-and-run?

The damage seems to indicate that the RPG was launched from outside the building rather than detonated at point blank range.

Could it be yet another instance of Russia "tidying up" which the DNR is blaming on Ukraine?

Thoughts?

[OUTLAW 09]

Skirmish at #Shyroka_Balka, near Horlivka now.

Stakhanov hearing heavy salvos.

Ukrainian border guard detained ex-Ukr serviceman with Russian passport issued in Crimea
pic.twitter.com/OWwG9KSwWP
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/8-february-ukrainian-border-guard-detained-exukrainian-serviceman#

[Azor]

Ex DNR speaker Purgin says Givi's murder will inflame war. Similar threats made after Motorola's death proved empty
https://tvrain.ru/teleshow/here_and_now/simvol_opolchentsa-427200/#

Was in fact a thermobaric RPG round....that exploded in his office.....office was completely burnt out....shades of GRU Spetsnaz history.....

Givi's assassination brought to daylight atrocities #Russian SOF did during 2004 Beslan school siege - morons used thermobaric warheads!
186 children killed by burning....


Firstly, haven't we already discussed giving fair warning before posting graphic images, particularly when they're tangential to the topic at hand?

Secondly, my mother thought that Givi wasn't terrible looking. :)

[OUTLAW 09]

16 OCT 2016.....
I think Givi will be next for termination. He's stood next to Motorola at Donetsk Airport while Ukraine cyborgs dig dead bodies from rubble

[OUTLAW 09]

Firstly, haven't we already discussed giving fair warning before posting graphic images, particularly when they're tangential to the topic at hand?

Secondly, my mother thought that Givi wasn't terrible looking. :)

Ok...post warning...Graphic....BUT and there is always as but....war and terrorism attacks are always graphic.

Maybe this GRU school hostage attack might in fact shock enough people into believing GRU is capable of a number of things....terrorism is one of them....

BUT WAIT..Trump believes just the opposite...that Russia is not capable of such events.....nor running influence operations in the US.....

The use of a thermobaric RPG round as an assassination weapon is not tangential to the use of thermobarbic weapons to clear a schoolhouse of terrorists with children as hostages.....

Indicators of who used them bridge the past and that is not tangential.....ruthlessness is ruthlessness.....the user signature is what one looks for....

[Azor]

Ok...post warning...Graphic....BUT and there is always as but....war and terrorism attacks are always graphic.

Maybe this GRU school hostage attack might in fact shock enough people into believing GRU is capable of a number of things....terrorism is one of them....

BUT WAIT..Trump believes just the opposite...that Russia is not capable of such events.....nor running influence operations in the US.....

The use of a thermobaric RPG round as an assassination weapon is not tangential to the use of thermobarbic weapons to clear a schoolhouse of terrorists with children as hostages.....

Indicators of who used them bridge the past and that is not tangential.....ruthlessness is ruthlessness.....the user signature is what one looks for....

So you're suggesting that it was yet another "inside job"? ;)

Given the insurgent "turnover" of late, Ukraine had to be blamed at some point. Otherwise, whoever was making those cars that kept blowing up would need to issue a recall...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...if this video reflects the current moment in time Givi was one of the first Russian born Ukrainians to join the merry band of Girkin.....along with the Russian born Ukrainian Motorola.....many of those that first joined their merry band came from what we might call blue collar low paying jobs and understood how to turn their new positions into war lords with gangs not patriotic locally recruited and led militias fighting for the good of New Russia...

Take it back...they fought but only to line their own personal pockets and bank accounts....and as the fighting has gotten more intense and the UAF now is just as well armed and better trained and led..you notice that many like Givi no longer are found on the front lines...but in the rear doing their smuggling...drugs.... and extortion war against their own citizens....

This pro-rebel tribute video (in Russian) gives an idea of how much Givi mattered to the rebel cause ...BTW...no mention of his starting his work career as a store security guard....

https://www.youtube.com/embed/FP0EBRLLk7U#

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO: 82 attacks on Ukr positions yday, RU forces used heavy artillery at Luhanske, Novotoshkivske, Krymske, Marynika, Lebedynske, Shyrokyne.

[OUTLAW 09]

Mil Radar @MIL_Radar
1123z: Two Russian bombers now off the west coast of Ireland FL280

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....something is brewing inside Russia...Putin created this unit as his last line of color revolt defense after Maidan and Crimea....they have the Duma passed and Putin signed authority to fire on even civilian peaceful demonstrators....

Deputy PM Rogozin called up to "arm to the teeth" #Russian National Guard.
It's Putin's last line of defence.

MAYBE this is the cause....for a bad case of nerves.....
Russia calls NATO moves in Baltics, Poland and Germany a threat: RIA
http://reut.rs/2k6eYHT

Russia cheered when US pulled troops out of Europe now flips out when they come back....cannot have it both ways.....

[OUTLAW 09]

This was a Russian terrorist in Donbas w/call sign Coconut. On Feb 4 2017 caught a sniper bullet. Died.

[OUTLAW 09]

Head of Mosfilm, Karen Shakhnazarov, claims Givi was assassinated to derail meeting of Trump & Putin. Chef-d'oeuvre!
https://twitter.com/spb_marina/status/829362964645842946#

Ah...here is another version of let's blame the UAF and SBU for killing a war criminal they badly wanted to place in front of the ICC for war crimes...

[OUTLAW 09]

Electronic Warfare:RU EW station sending texts to Ukr soldiers > to kill Natl guard fighters
pic.twitter.com/EVjzYN0vx5
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-february-electronic-warfare-russian-ew-station-sending#

UA military claims they destroyed RU mil truck with ATGM and shot down an UAV near Mariupol
pic.twitter.com/0pofIYnmAL

Widespread blackout in villages East to Mariupol as result of Russian artillery attack
pic.twitter.com/3qcmaG2bpl

[OUTLAW 09]

Crazy story by Hovaya: Givi shot himself in leg to escape battlefield Avdiivika. That's why his own men killed him
https://www.novayagazeta.ru/articles/2017/02/09/71454-eto-tebe-za-patsanov-pogibshih-pod-avdeevkoy#

Separatist fighter tells Novaya Gazeta that he killed his cdr Givi after battlefield quarrel (in which Givi ordered shelling own men)

Many srcs confirm a Givi's unit got shelled by his artillery. Plus 40% of Somali slain by his stupidity @ #Avdiivka

BTW...also reports that this brigade had several GRU Spetsnaz attached to it for security reasons....then suddenly pulled out after the attack...

[OUTLAW 09]

RU Commander of Southern MD Col-Gen Dvornikov is inspecting mil units/formations in Crimea.
pic.twitter.com/OF6LTGhuRh

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian army shot down Russian UAV with small arms yesterday
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/1452841161393352#

[OUTLAW 09]

Kremlin & their вата shill have officially started to target #Germany in context of warmongering, accusing in deployment close to borders

Russia was preparing to annex Crimea in 2013: Justice Ministry says has enough evidence
http://www.unian.info/politics/1769481-russia-was-preparing-to-annex-crimea-in-2013-justice-ministry-says-has-enough-evidence.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

INFOGRAPHIC: Connections between Russian MoD/ intelligence services and Putin's propaganda apparatus in #Ukraine:

http://ukrainewarlog.blogspot.com/p/british-citixen-and-kremlin-reporter.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

"DNR" doesn't want to collect their KIAs from Promka, near #Avdiivka. These two cargo-200 from Vostok batt. are there since 2 weeks.

[OUTLAW 09]

Mil Radar @MIL_Radar
Tu-160 Blackjacks intercepted today:
42822: RF-94100 'Николай Кузнецов'
42823: RF-94108 'Владимир Судец'

[OUTLAW 09]

So you're suggesting that it was yet another "inside job"? ;)

Given the insurgent "turnover" of late, Ukraine had to be blamed at some point. Otherwise, whoever was making those cars that kept blowing up would need to issue a recall...

Azor...it was in fact an "inside job"....blamed naturally at first on UAF/SBU....

The individual who confessed via a newspaper interview...actually a strange way for a Russian to voice your dislike of your commander admitted he was actually a paid Russian passport holding citizen ex GRU spetsnaz.....mercenary fighting in the Somali Brigade as are a large number of ex GRU Russian citizens paid for by Russian funds also in the same unit....

BUT I guess if your commander is dodging the heavy fighting with the resulting heavy Russian loses and then you shell your own brigade which suffers then 40% causalities due to this shelling anyone might get mad enough to frag your own commander.....

With a thermobaric RPG round he made sure Givi was definitely killed...

SO if a Russian citizen paid for by Russian funds....an ex GRU Spetsnaz......carried in a newspaper interview admits to fragging Givi...AND then this.... Russian state TV is running a very long, extremely glowing tribute to the Donbass rebel Givi, who was killed in an explosion this week.

Was the killing "sanctioned" or not....IMHO....warning from Moscow for the still living Donbas first generation "separatist" fighters to fall into line of die....

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that do not believe that Syria and Ukraine are not intertwined.....

In Syria they also walked the streets initially in a very peaceful manner demanding...the rule of law and good governance...and then Assad and Putin and Iran have unleased genocide...starvation.....ethnic cleansing and a massive killing machine on those that demanded these simple demands...

Just a side comment for this thread....in Ukraine they strive for the rule of law....something hard for the former Eastern/central European countries under the Soviet rule and then Russian rule in the face of institutionalized Soviet style corruption.....YET they still try....

It was the underlying battle cry of the Maidan......AND in countless Syrian towns and villages.....

We in the US often forget the cries about protecting the rule of law and how many around the world want to emulate the US concept of the rule of law....and since the election of Trump it appears that he and his merry band actually want to do away with it......

The following is the perfect example of why the US judicial system ensures the rule of law and what we often call checks and balances on power grabbing...by any of the three branches of US government....including itself.

If you want to see what an irritated US independent judiciary looks like, it’s this paragraph.......:D.

[OUTLAW 09]

•Last week was the most violent over the last 13 months – SMM recorded almost 3 times more ceasefire violations

[OUTLAW 09]

Who is Dugin, hero of the alt-right? John Dunlop told us long ago: Aleksandr Dugin's Foundations of Geopolitics
https://shar.es/19skhu

Dugin is the ultra nationalist ideologue who whispers into the ears of Putin....

[OUTLAW 09]

Today is two years since Putin's Smerch rocket launchers shelled Kramatorsk killing 17 civilians. Never forget.

[OUTLAW 09]

Dmitri #Peskov was asked,where the 700 "separatist" t72/80/90s tanks in eastern #Ukraine come from.

"I can tell you that, of course, not from Russia."......:D

Maybe from the Chinese national war stocks shipped via Ukrainian rail????

BUT WAIT...they all arrived with the Russian rail transport markings and or were driven over the border from Rostov....BY vacationing Russian active duty personnel....

[OUTLAW 09]

A new MT-LB VM/K of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Army spotted in Donbas:
https://informnapalm.org/en/new-mt-lb-vm-k-34th-separate-motorized-rifle-brigade-russian-army-spotted-donbas/#

TASS: At the landfill "Iagorlic" in Kherson reg Ukraine will conduct live firing (incl "Buk-M1"). Russia nervous
http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/4012813?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Peskov says Russian tanks weren't sent to Ukraine. Evidence (ironically provided by a Kremlin propagandist) says otherwise - Russian T-72B3s

[OUTLAW 09]

Cyberwar: top operations of Ukrainian Cyber Alliance (#UCA) in 2016
https://informnapalm.org/en/cyberwar-top-operations-of-ukrainian-cyber-alliance-uca-in-2016/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Without access to water from Ukraine's Dnipro river, northern Crimea has been facing a water crisis.
http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/2255-crimea-s-water-troubles#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian troops are preparing for a "time of war"
http://bit.ly/2l1r1oR

[OUTLAW 09]

Krashohorivka was attack with GRAD MLRS this afternoon

[OUTLAW 09]

Proof Russia shelled #Ukraine for at least a full month. Marynivka crossing Aug 2014 - Sept.

Full details coming in a new video.

[OUTLAW 09]

Unidentified #UAV s have been detected around #Norwegian army training exercises. Same has happened in other Nordic countries.

Especially recently in Finland.....

[OUTLAW 09]

21:00 #Donetsk @rjpthju62irjkf [ok.ru]
#Shyrokyi: it's very loud
#Nesterivka: noisy
#Mashinery plant: noisy
#Tekstilschik listens

21:06 #Marinka @AutobusBuratin Artillery strikes #Krasnohorivka

Krasnohorivka was attacked with MLRS Grad and tanks despite ceasefire agreement

21:05 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_Marinka [vk] very strong impacts within the town

According to #Russia state TV they have sent over 700 tanks to occupied #Donbass

RIA: "DPR" says Ukraine about to shell Donetsk cities by nightfall.
That means Russian proxies are about to escalate significantly.

21:04 #Marinka @hyeva_Marinka [vk] booms and heavy MG

[OUTLAW 09]

Aerial reconnaissance of Dnipro-1 - dozens of military vehicles in #Donetsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llD4Q5FpmeE#

http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/10-february-aerial-reconnaissance-of-dnipro1--dozens-of-military#

[OUTLAW 09]

Peskov says Russia's tanks weren't sent to Ukraine. Here's the evidence to the contrary via @InformNapalm
https://informnapalm.org/en/database-russian-weaponry-donbas/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia troops attacked #Ukraine positions in #Donbas 82 times in last day, most of attacks were with heavy weapons

http://uaposition.com/latest-news/russian-troops-attacked-ukrainian-positions-donbas-82-times-last-day-attacks-use-heavy-weapons/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Balance of forces in #ATO : left - Ukrainian army, right - 'DNR'

Personnel
Artillery
Tanks
MLRS
ATC

Interesting numbers by Russian TV :D

[OUTLAW 09]

Partial list of military commanders, intelligence chiefs & terrorist leaders assassinated by Putin to cover up #RussiaInvadedUkraine & #MH17

[OUTLAW 09]

Luhansk region: Ukrainian military lost contact with reconnaissance group on frontline
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?
story_fbid=325702751159873&id=100011604527016&pnref=story#

SBU detained woman-sniper of DNR
pic.twitter.com/j96vN3CXIO
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/11-february-sbu-detained-womansniper-of-dnr#

[OUTLAW 09]

Both work illegally in #Ukraine
Both funded by Russian media
Both promote hatred of Ukr.
Both put lives at risk
Both use @Indiegogo as cover

[OUTLAW 09]

16:46 #Mariupol @iMariupol Heard over 30 min:
- 2 Grad batteries
- 82mm, 120mm mortars
- 122mm, 152mm SPGs
- Howitzers
- heavy MG
- AA-gun

Full war is raging in #Mariupol. Full orchestra is raining on #Ukraine s defenders

Mariupol sector:
Positions near #Pavlopil mortared #Novotroitske/#Hnutove/#Pavlopil/#Shyrokyne attacked w/GLs
BMP fired on #Shyrokyne

[OUTLAW 09]

Krasnohorivka @666_mancer Impact site of one of yesterday's Grad pieces
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dm738iNQV4#

As of 18:00, 2 UA servicemen WIA, 28 attacks since midnight

Donetsk sector: #Avdiivka, #Novoselivka_Druha mortared.
GL, heavy MG, SA attacks on #Pisky, #Avdiivka, #Opytne, #Troitske

Heavy battles east of #Mariupol today, all kind of weapons used including GRAD MLRS

[OUTLAW 09]

Are we heading towards a European pillar of NATO or an EU with also defence responsibilities? Or towards both?
http://www.politico.eu/article/why-nato-needs-a-european-pillar-defense-donald-trump-putin-russia/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia in USA
✔
@RusEmbUSA
#Kislyak: US partners in Kiev have to start implementing what they have signed in Minsk
http://sptnkne.ws/d5Aw

EU & US agree as long as the #Minsk agreements are not fully implemented, sanctions will remain.” — @FedericaMog

Did Tillerson give iron clad guarantee....nothing is solid unless Trump actually states it....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian troops massively shelled Ukrainian positions in Donbas with Grad rocket systems and heavy weapons…
http://dlvr.it/NLt4GF

ATO HQ report 59 attacks on #Ukrainian positions in the last 24 hours, two #soldiers wounded

One of the many amazing stories I've heard in #Ukraine - "the cyborgs”, Donetsk airport defenders to hit big screen:
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/12/story-of-the-cyborgs-ukraines-donetsk-airport-defenders-to-hit-big-screen/#

NOTE...this defense gave the UAF time to reorg...refit...and rearm and gave it a fighting morale that is still there today and is limiting whatever Russia has been throwing at them and now taking back grey area that belongs under Minsk 2 to UAF....

[OUTLAW 09]

9 Ukrainian soldiers KIA 55 WIA in 876 attacks in 11 days of February. With no killed since 4 Feb - relative calm

Virtually nothing is now moving rail wise for supplies into Donbas from the rest of Ukraine...it is stating to now hurt....

Improvised trade blockade in Donbas continues, one more rail section removed, coal trains blocked
https://www.euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/12/february-11-2017-krasnohorivka-donbas-open-source/#

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT article from a former USAF SOF type who has been writing a lot from the Minsk 2 frontlines....

Nolan Peterson: Russian troops man Ukraine rebels' front line
http://europe.newsweek.com/nolan-peterson-russian-troops-man-ukraine-rebels-front-line-555141?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=/nolan-peterson-russian-troops-man-ukraine-rebels-front-line-555141#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia claims E. Ukraine separatists stole/bought their 700 tanks & 400 APCs from depleted Ukrainian army. Right ...
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2017/02/10/ekspert-rasskazal-otkuda-dnr-poluchila-700-tankov-i-400-bmp.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

20:15 #Dokuchaevsk @whicard5 "Separatists' hardware is moving somewhere in the east, plumes of exhaust smoke. Mortars make noise at ettles"

Ukrainian axis: Russia deploying a new artillery brigade:
https://informnapalm.org/en/ukrainian-axis-russia-deploying-new-artillery-brigade/#

[OUTLAW 09]

http://en.censor.net.ua/news/425743/terrorist_girkin_confirms_mass_deser...
Terrorist Girkin confirms mass desertion of "DPR" militants deployed at Avdiivka, - journalist


Ex-leader of the so-called "DPR" Igor Strelkov aka Girkin reports about mass desertion of "DPR" militants from the 11th motorized rifle regiment involved in battles near Avdiivka.
Censor.NET Chief Editor Yurii Butusov wrote on Facebook referring to Strelkov's post on a social media.
"A member of the Russian Federal Security Service and ex-Defense Minister of the "DPR" Igor Girkin (Strelkov) told about panic among the militants near Avdiivka: "Mass exodus of "fifteen-thousanders" from the 11th regiment is underway under the slogan 'I'll gladly take the military ID but will never fight.' Say hello to the boneheads!
"The Russian mercenaries call fifteen-thousanders the residents of the occupied Donbas who have lost their jobs and become employed in the only place in the "DPR" where the Russian invaders consistently pay wages - the army of the "DPR". A mercenary receives squarely 15,000 RUB (about $250) per month there," the journalist explained.
"Our 72nd Mechanized Brigade is currently opposed by the 11th motorized rifle regiment deployed near Avdiivka. According to the enemy reports in social media, commander of the 3rd battalion of this regiment Ivan Balabay, call sign Grek, and company commander with call sign Konsul were killed in battles of Jan. 29-31. Girkin tells about heavy losses sustained by the mercenaries, but he is just afraid to tell exact figures.
"The Russian command completely classified any information regarding the gross losses while the casualty figures were previously voiced. The reluctance even to publish the number of killed-in-action shows that Russian 1st Army Corps has actually sustained significant losses. It is noteworthy that Girkin started telling bogeyman story about "the offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Donetsk, Horlivka, Debaltseve" following three days of battles at a narrow section of the forefront," Butusov wrote

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine News
‏@UaNews_online

"Kremlin is eliminating everyone. You will celebrate my death soon," - terrorist Girkin
http://dlvr.it/NM2Zy4

Before The Hague got him, Milošević killed off most of the spooks & thugs who did his 1990s dirty work.
Putin is doing the same, of course.


The Russians military killed or excluded all independent players from the city of Donetsk. That’s why Girkin isn't rule out the possibility of his assassination.
A former militants' leader Igor Girkin (Strelkov) told a Russian TV channel, Censor.NET reports.
"Zakharchenko is a motormouth. That's a clear fact that all people able to deicide for themselves and take responsibility for their words were eliminated or excluded from Donetsk. It is clear that no one will do anything without the political will of Moscow. After all, Donbas problems are rooted in the Kremlin.
"If the Kremlin decides to act, neglecting its own interests, like daughters in London and granddaughters in Paris, we will win.
Girkin continue to criticize Russian government but is afraid for his future. "You will probably celebrate my death soon. I'm still surprised that I can walk around. Still I'm not sure if God will be so merciful for a long time," Girkin said.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://en.censor.net.ua/news/411556/terrorist_girkin_may_i_criticize_putin_or_will_ukr ainian_saboteurs_come_after_me_if_i_do

21.10.16 12:21

#Terrorist Girkin: “May I criticize Putin or will "Ukrainian saboteurs” come after me if I do?"


Russian terrorist Igor Girkin (also known as Strelkov) posted a survey on his VKontakte page to find out whether it is safe for him to criticize Putin.
Censor.NET Chief Editor Yurii Butusov wrote on Facebook.

"Russian terrorist Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) celebrated in an unusual way Russia's consent for the OSCE police mission deployment in the Donbas that it gave during talks in the Normandy format yesterday - he conducted a survey on his page to determine whether it was right or wrong for him to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin," Butusov wrote.

"I liked one of the answers proposed by Girkin: "It is wrong because he (Putin - Ed.) might get offended and then "Ukrainian saboteurs" will come after me," the journalist wrote.

"I thought that if Girkin had conducted this poll in social media before attacking Sloviansk, the war would likely have never started," Butusov summed up.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia Foreign Minister #Lavrov is key source of #fakenews about #Donbas, #Ukraine
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1486855745#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia#VDV paratroops are training in the #Rostov region next to #Ukraine. Live firing SAMs etc.


This might explain just why the Ukrainian government is at ease with the right wing Azor Regiment which is now part of the Ukrainian National Guard......

"But the enemy of my enemy is my friend"......

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraine-turns-a-blind-eye-to-ultrarightist-militia/2017/02/12/dbf9ea3c-ecab-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.121707c71c87#

[OUTLAW 09]

Karaganov: “We are not interested in any kind of unity in the trans-Atlantic alliance ... The weaker the better.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/putin-has-some-lessons-for-trump-in-the-art-of-great-powerness#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian writer Zakhar Prilepin is playing war in Ukraine, as a major in the Donetsk separatists' army.
http://www.kp.ru/daily/26642.5/3661046/#

Russian writer Zahar Prilepin(RF citizen) became deputy commander of DNR local separatists

Bolshevik Russian writer and suspected leader of OMON death squads in Chechnya, Zakhar Prilepin now Dep Cmdr in DPR

Russian LTC who fought in Donbas is killed when he returned to Moscow....
Russischer Oberstleutnant nach #Donbass-Rückkehr unerwartet in #Moskau gestorben:
https://informnapalm.org/de/russischer-oberstleutnant-nach-donbass-rueckkehr-unerwartet-in-moskau-gestorben/#

[OUTLAW 09]

East #Ukraine #conflict update: pro-#Russia|n #separatist militias shelled Ukrainian positions 67 times in 24 hours
1 UAF WIA

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference the assassinated Donbas war criminal Givi....

Meanwhile in #Serbia ...
#Givi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzDn6sFfFaw#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine launches WTO lawsuit against Russia over transit restrictions. Divorce getting uglier but more permanent

https://www.unian.info/economics/1774202-ukraine-files-suit-against-russia-with-wto-over-transit-restrictions.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian writer Zakhar Prilepin is playing war in Ukraine, as a major in the Donetsk separatists' army.
http://www.kp.ru/daily/26642.5/3661046/#

Russian writer Zahar Prilepin(RF citizen) became deputy commander of DNR local separatists

Bolshevik Russian writer and suspected leader of OMON death squads in Chechnya, Zakhar Prilepin now Dep Cmdr in DPR

Russian LTC who fought in Donbas is killed when he returned to Moscow....
Russischer Oberstleutnant nach #Donbass-Rckkehr unerwartet in #Moskau gestorben:
https://informnapalm.org/de/russischer-oberstleutnant-nach-donbass-rueckkehr-unerwartet-in-moskau-gestorben/#

RU #chauvinist author #Prilepin takes weapons and goes to #war with #Ukraine. "For us, it's not ab #Donetsk. It's ab the whole Ukraine".

Ah....finally the real truth about the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine comes out two full years later.....

[OUTLAW 09]

RU #chauvinist author #Prilepin takes weapons and goes to #war with #Ukraine. "For us, it's not ab #Donetsk. It's ab the whole Ukraine".

Ah....finally the real truth about the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine comes out two full years later.....


In the 1990s, Prilepin partook in police operations in Chechnya and Dagestan.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2017/02/13/russian-writer-becomes-political-commissar-of-rebel-battalion-in-donetsk#

Some are saying he could have been charged with war crimes from the Chechnya operations...

[OUTLAW 09]

Fighting in eastern #Ukraine is definitely back to 'usual' level, what doesn't mean it's totally calm. GRAD MLRS mostly silent again.

Ukrainian Army took new positions closer to Russian Hybrid Army positions during escalation in #Avdeevka and fighting in #Yasynuvata:

[OUTLAW 09]

RU #chauvinist author #Prilepin takes weapons and goes to #war with #Ukraine. "For us, it's not ab #Donetsk. It's ab the whole Ukraine".

Ah....finally the real truth about the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine comes out two full years later.....

Zakhar #Prilepin, writer, ideologue of #Putin's war in #Ukraine: "If we succeed in UA, we succeed anywhere".

Do you hear this in the West?

[OUTLAW 09]

72 Russian led attacks yesterday against UAF positions...using heavy artillery and GRADs together with ground probes....

Many in the West tend to want to forget this simple fact....there is a major Russo/Ukrainian war in Central Europe....and the West acts if it is a mosquito bite...

[OUTLAW 09]

Aerial video reveals hundreds of pieces of military equipment in occupied Donetsk
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/14/february-13-donbas-digest/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian separatists are hitting the vodka to much lately....

Separatist Spokesman Tells Izvestia Ukrainian Soldiers Take Drugs That Defy Decapitation
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-1093/#16110

[Azor]

See SWJ article from February 2, 2017: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/counterinsurgency-options-for-ukraine

I wanted to respond here, due to the superior formatting for replies.


Azor...thanks for the words...not sure if kind or unkind...

Well, they were certainly not unkind. I may disagree with you on certain subjects, but I respect your opinions and your efforts to update the SWJ members on various ongoing conflicts.

However, do I think that you are wholly retired and wholly in the private sector? No.

Do I think that you are seeking to influence people in the intelligence, defense and foreign policy communities? Yes.

Do I think that you regard state actors such as Russia and Iran as more of a threat than Sunni supremacism? Yes.

With regard to your background, I would say that there are tactical and operational geniuses whose brilliance does not reach into the strategic level, and visa versa. I would say that Churchill was a strategic genius and superior to any of his contemporaries in this regard, but that this brilliance did not preclude him from making grave tactical and operational errors at Gallipoli, Operation Lustre and in the Far East.

I would say to you that your service and experience may not be as useful as you think when dealing with big picture strategic questions. Understanding which caliber of mortar is being used so as to complain that Minsk II is being violated or making recommendations as to which ATGM or RPG would serve the Ukrainian Army best, are entirely different issues from looking at whether NATO members collectively or separately can or should support Ukraine with arms and volunteers.

But suffice it to say, I am well aware of the OSINT on 1st SOF Det-A. I wonder what your opposite numbers are up to?


…the latest SBU Russian military active duty count inside Ukraine stands at 8.5K.

This is concerning. Typically the Russian count has only been around 9,000 when they were participating in major operations at Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo.


Azor...here is my heartburn with many commenters...

I agree. The Ukrainian Army was defeating the insurgents in the Summer of 2014, requiring Russia to directly intervene with cross-border artillery strikes and the incursion of regular forces.

I agree with JSmith that Ukraine suffers from corruption and poor military leadership, but the UA is hamstrung by knowledge that the Russians will intervene at the first sign of UA momentum, and pressure from the EU and IMF to unilaterally and unconditionally bring down the level of the conflict.

I disagree with you that this “creeping offensive” by the UA is not a violation of the “ceasefire”, such as it is. Yes, the (pro)Russians violated it in February 2015 at Debaltsevo, but Kiev was instructed to accept these revisions. By advancing the UA, Kiev is attempting to bring international attention to the conflict due to fears of the Trump Administration recognizing Russia’s interests in Crimea and Donbas.

What the UA has gained however, is the ability to blunt a major (pro)Russian offensive toward Mariupol or Kharkiv, and we both know how loathe Putin would be to find his men being killed by a UA using guerrilla warfare. Putin has no good options in terms of driving forward.


…Putin will not go to war...as the Russian state and economy is close to collapse and that is why he applying strong pressure in attempting to collapse EU first....but Putin always likes to throw out the threat of war to block EU moves...

I disagree. We can’t assume low oil and gas prices forever, and those are what brought Iran to the negotiating table, not sanctions. Russia and Brazil are two key emerging markets that are experiencing nascent recoveries and you wouldn’t be wrong to back up the truck into their equity and bond markets.

[OUTLAW 09]

However, do I think that you are wholly retired and wholly in the private sector? No.

Do I think that you are seeking to influence people in the intelligence, defense and foreign policy communities? Yes.

Do I think that you regard state actors such as Russia and Iran as more of a threat than Sunni supremacism? Yes.




YES fully retired until late 2013 and then fully operating as a CEO of a non profit....actually gave up my clearances and never want to see them again....

Just because I do not agree with you on Sunni fundamentalism or that matter Shia fundamentalism does not mean I have a blind side to it...I just am a believer that all three of the great religions have had their radical groups and moments in history and it usually takes 1500 years to work through them....

Does it mean I do not converse with "others" in the business of cyber warfare and info warfare that tangates corporations and critical infrastructure....??

But if you go back into the 2014/2015 Ukraine threads you might actually see that I also foretold a number of both strategic and tactical developments....just track the postings and you will see where they lead....to what we are seeing today in both Ukraine and Syria....

[OUTLAW 09]

See SWJ article from February 2, 2017: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/counterinsurgency-options-for-ukraine

I wanted to respond here, due to the superior formatting for replies.



Well, they were certainly not unkind. I may disagree with you on certain subjects, but I respect your opinions and your efforts to update the SWJ members on various ongoing conflicts.

However, do I think that you are wholly retired and wholly in the private sector? No.

Do I think that you are seeking to influence people in the intelligence, defense and foreign policy communities? Yes.

Do I think that you regard state actors such as Russia and Iran as more of a threat than Sunni supremacism? Yes.

With regard to your background, I would say that there are tactical and operational geniuses whose brilliance does not reach into the strategic level, and visa versa. I would say that Churchill was a strategic genius and superior to any of his contemporaries in this regard, but that this brilliance did not preclude him from making grave tactical and operational errors at Gallipoli, Operation Lustre and in the Far East.

I would say to you that your service and experience may not be as useful as you think when dealing with big picture strategic questions. Understanding which caliber of mortar is being used so as to complain that Minsk II is being violated or making recommendations as to which ATGM or RPG would serve the Ukrainian Army best, are entirely different issues from looking at whether NATO members collectively or separately can or should support Ukraine with arms and volunteers.

But suffice it to say, I am well aware of the OSINT on 1st SOF Det-A. I wonder what your opposite numbers are up to?



This is concerning. Typically the Russian count has only been around 9,000 when they were participating in major operations at Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo.



I agree. The Ukrainian Army was defeating the insurgents in the Summer of 2014, requiring Russia to directly intervene with cross-border artillery strikes and the incursion of regular forces.

I agree with JSmith that Ukraine suffers from corruption and poor military leadership, but the UA is hamstrung by knowledge that the Russians will intervene at the first sign of UA momentum, and pressure from the EU and IMF to unilaterally and unconditionally bring down the level of the conflict.

I disagree with you that this “creeping offensive” by the UA is not a violation of the “ceasefire”, such as it is. Yes, the (pro)Russians violated it in February 2015 at Debaltsevo, but Kiev was instructed to accept these revisions. By advancing the UA, Kiev is attempting to bring international attention to the conflict due to fears of the Trump Administration recognizing Russia’s interests in Crimea and Donbas.

What the UA has gained however, is the ability to blunt a major (pro)Russian offensive toward Mariupol or Kharkiv, and we both know how loathe Putin would be to find his men being killed by a UA using guerrilla warfare. Putin has no good options in terms of driving forward.



I disagree. We can’t assume low oil and gas prices forever, and those are what brought Iran to the negotiating table, not sanctions. Russia and Brazil are two key emerging markets that are experiencing nascent recoveries and you wouldn’t be wrong to back up the truck into their equity and bond markets.

Azor...an interesting point....all tactical events are and or should be tied to a strategic strategy....in the case of Obama's lack of a true series of strategic strategies in say Ukraine and Syria the tactical events on the ground become in fact "the strategy"....

It was only until we had the Ben Rhodes and Obama...interviews towards the end of the Obama presidency that we got what might be declared a "strategy" although for me...their worldview which was not translated into a series of strategic strategies....

Short comment...tactical and strategic are normally intertwined...the problem begins when they are not intertwined.....so by watching the tactical side one "sees and understands" in the the driving underlining strategy...

Hopefully.......

[OUTLAW 09]

Militants launch 52 #attacks on Ukrainian troops in #Donbas in last day

[OUTLAW 09]

Stop Fake @StopFakingNews
Research: Russian Information Campaign Against Ukrainian State And Defence Forces
http://www.stopfake.org/en/russian-information-campaign-against-ukrainian-state-and-defence-forces/#

US elex, France elex and now Germany elex - fake news is the new warfare, liberal democracies are in the bull's eye
http://on.ft.com/2kwAKzv

[OUTLAW 09]

On the Front Lines of the #War in #Ukraine
by @DailySignal @nolanwpeterson
http://dailysignal.com/2017/02/09/on-the-front-lines-of-the-war-in-ukraine-soldiers-dig-in/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Former Russian MP flees to Kiev; says situation in Russia is like "Nazi Germany":
https://m.censor.net.ua/resonance/427681/eksdeputat_gosdumy_denis_voronenkov_situatsiya_v_r ossii_kak_v_natsistskoyi_germanii_ne_hochu_jit_vo# …

A leaked Google threat intel report gives the public a glimpse into how much Google knows about government hacking
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/a-glimpse-into-how-much-google-knows-about-russian-government-hackers#

[Azor]

Just because I do not agree with you on Sunni fundamentalism or that matter Shia fundamentalism does not mean I have a blind side to it...I just am a believer that all three of the great religions have had their radical groups and moments in history and it usually takes 1500 years to work through them...

I think we agree that Shias can be just as capable of supremacism as Sunnis. Where we differ on Shias is that I believe as per Alistair Crooke, that they are more amenable to top-down control. If we are concerned about Hezbollah menacing northern Israel or the Alawi marauders cleansing Sunni villages, we know that we can pick up the phone and call Teheran. When we want to talk to the Sunni Arab supremacists, to say nothing of the African or South Asian Sunnis, who do we call? Tom’s nuances about Yemen aside, Teheran probably has a greater ability to influence the Houthis in Yemen than say Doha does to influence Nusra in Syria.

Shia supremacist terrorism is almost entirely directed by Teheran, and during the period of Hezbollah attacks against Western targets in the 1980s, Iran was at war with Iraq (which it felt was urged on and supported by the West), and Khomeini felt under siege. When that war ended and Iran and the West were no longer confrontational, the terrorism ended. Compare this with Gaza where a Hamas ceasefire may have no bearing on whether the other terrorists plan to attack Israel.


But if you go back into the 2014/2015 Ukraine threads you might actually see that I also foretold a number of both strategic and tactical developments...just track the postings and you will see where they lead...to what we are seeing today in both Ukraine and Syria...

You certainly illuminated the situation and I did rely on your updates rather than what little the MSM was reporting. Did any of it convince me that the West should intervene on Ukraine’s side? No, but I did support their struggle morally.


Azor...an interesting point...all tactical events are and or should be tied to a strategic strategy...in the case of Obama's lack of a true series of strategic strategies in say Ukraine and Syria the tactical events on the ground become in fact "the strategy"...

Obama wanted to be a caretaker with respect to foreign and defense policy. Toward the end of his tenure he did encourage US allies to contribute more to their own defense and form “spoke-to-spoke” relationships, but Obama was a weak isolationist and the world knew it.


It was only until we had the Ben Rhodes and Obama...interviews towards the end of the Obama presidency that we got what might be declared a "strategy" although for me...their worldview which was not translated into a series of strategic strategies...

Obama and Rhodes thought that they were charting a new course in US Middle East foreign policy, when in fact they were repeating Carter’s grave error with respect to Iran, this time in Egypt.

Obama cannot claim credit for positive developments in Tunisia, Egypt remains under an autocrat (albeit one less enthused with the US), and Libya has traded a “mad dog” for “madness”, because with its resources and population it need not worry about starvation as is the case with Egypt. Meanwhile, wars rage in Yemen and Syria over which the US has no influence, and the number of armed fighters pledged to jihad are exponentially greater than when Obama took office, and probably by two orders of magnitude.

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference the Russian shot down of MH17.....important......

New #MH17 report:
Identifying Khmuryi, the Major General Linked to the Downing of MH17

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/02/15/identifying-khmuryi-the-major-general-linked-to-the-downing-of-mh17/#

[OUTLAW 09]

I think we agree that Shias can be just as capable of supremacism as Sunnis. Where we differ on Shias is that I believe as per Alistair Crooke, that they are more amenable to top-down control. If we are concerned about Hezbollah menacing northern Israel or the Alawi marauders cleansing Sunni villages, we know that we can pick up the phone and call Teheran. When we want to talk to the Sunni Arab supremacists, to say nothing of the African or South Asian Sunnis, who do we call? Tom’s nuances about Yemen aside, Teheran probably has a greater ability to influence the Houthis in Yemen than say Doha does to influence Nusra in Syria.

Shia supremacist terrorism is almost entirely directed by Teheran, and during the period of Hezbollah attacks against Western targets in the 1980s, Iran was at war with Iraq (which it felt was urged on and supported by the West), and Khomeini felt under siege. When that war ended and Iran and the West were no longer confrontational, the terrorism ended. Compare this with Gaza where a Hamas ceasefire may have no bearing on whether the other terrorists plan to attack Israel.



You certainly illuminated the situation and I did rely on your updates rather than what little the MSM was reporting. Did any of it convince me that the West should intervene on Ukraine’s side? No, but I did support their struggle morally.



Obama wanted to be a caretaker with respect to foreign and defense policy. Toward the end of his tenure he did encourage US allies to contribute more to their own defense and form “spoke-to-spoke” relationships, but Obama was a weak isolationist and the world knew it.



Obama and Rhodes thought that they were charting a new course in US Middle East foreign policy, when in fact they were repeating Carter’s grave error with respect to Iran, this time in Egypt.

Obama cannot claim credit for positive developments in Tunisia, Egypt remains under an autocrat (albeit one less enthused with the US), and Libya has traded a “mad dog” for “madness”, because with its resources and population it need not worry about starvation as is the case with Egypt. Meanwhile, wars rage in Yemen and Syria over which the US has no influence, and the number of armed fighters pledged to jihad are exponentially greater than when Obama took office, and probably by two orders of magnitude.

Azor...actually tend to agree with a number of items ......but back to the Sunni's.

Really go back into the historical development of both Sunnism and Shiaism and look at exactly how each sect defines the role of government ...therein lies the true differences.....

Then go back to Khomeini's writings from his Paris...exil days and then read all of his writings on what he called "Revolutionary Islam"..and all his works around that topic....he was a prolific writer actually.....

I had many Iranian student friends in Berlin that were on the left..all went home after the Khomeini takeover assuming they could rebuild a good Iran...all were eventually jailed and number killed by the new Khomeini Savak..and those that survived are back in Berlin for good.....

Then jump forward to recent statements concerning the Iranian role in the ME coming from Khamenei...no difference.....

If coupled with the Khomeini "Green Crescent" running from AFG over Iran...onto Iraq...Syria and ending in Lebanon.....Khomeini/Khameini have reached a control of territory not envisioned even by Islamic State's Caliphate which is Sunni based....and have tied all large Shia populations together under his control and spiritual guidance...

Then look at the rivalry between Khomeini and the former King of KSA for control of the global Muslim Unman....comprising both Shia and Sunni....

Khomeini was very aware of the historical closeness of both the global Shia and Sunni in the 3rd/4th Caliphates.....and he was trying to head back to that period...

So for me....Revolutionary Islam is far more dangerous long term that any Sunni jihadists...

[Azor]

Azor...actually tend to agree with a number of items…

The stars have aligned then have they? ;)


Really go back into the historical development of both Sunnism and Shiaism and look at exactly how each sect defines the role of government ...therein lies the true differences...

Perhaps you are thinking of the Ahmadis?

Last I checked, there was no separation of mosque and state in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia or Sudan.

Salafism is just as "revolutionary" as Khomeini's brand of Shi'ism...

RE: The Shia Green Crescent

It is a fantasy, given that:


Shia Islam is a majority outside of Iran only in Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq and perhaps Lebanon
Iran and its interests are surrounded by powerful Sunni countries, including Turkey, the GCC, Egypt and Pakistan
There are ethnic differences between Iranian and Iraqi Shias as well as between Iranian and Azerbaijani Sunnis
Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey, backed by GCC funding, can fuel ethnic and sectarian insurgencies in Iran
Until 2003 Iraq’s Shia majority was under Sunni rule, and Bahrain’s continues to be so
Setting Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Bahrain and Pakistan on fire is not the same as empire-building, and Iran is just as vulnerable to the reverse

[OUTLAW 09]

The stars have aligned then have they? ;)



Perhaps you are thinking of the Ahmadis?

Last I checked, there was no separation of mosque and state in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia or Sudan.

Salafism is just as "revolutionary" as Khomeini's brand of Shi'ism...

RE: The Shia Green Crescent

It is a fantasy, given that:


Shia Islam is a majority outside of Iran only in Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq and perhaps Lebanon
Iran and its interests are surrounded by powerful Sunni countries, including Turkey, the GCC, Egypt and Pakistan
There are ethnic differences between Iranian and Iraqi Shias as well as between Iranian and Azerbaijani Sunnis
Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey, backed by GCC funding, can fuel ethnic and sectarian insurgencies in Iran
Until 2003 Iraq’s Shia majority was under Sunni rule, and Bahrain’s continues to be so
Setting Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Bahrain and Pakistan on fire is not the same as empire-building, and Iran is just as vulnerable to the reverse


Noticed you finally indicated Sufi's as in the term of Trump "radical Islam"....

There was were three major Iraqi Sunni insurgency groups....Islamic Army in Iraq......Ansar al Sunnah..mainly at first Sunni Kurds and then the Sufi group led by former Iraqi General al Duri who was on the US top ten list.

And then AQI which morphed into IS......IS is waning after major battles and al Duri announced just last week..he will reassume the Sunni insurgency inside Iraq and his merry band has been trained in UW and can keet up a guerrilla war with the Iraqi/Iranian government which is heavily under Shia militia influence which now controls most of Iraq via Shia warlords...

Right now Iran is in fact empire building and extending her influence ..do not forget that Khomeini envisioned leading all Muslims.....both sects...not just Shia.....

Bluntly put the current Sunni nation states in the ME are on their back feet in holding off Shiaism......remember they all have a reasonably sized Shia minorities inside their countries is KSA....


Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey, backed by GCC funding, can fuel ethnic and sectarian insurgencies in Iran


All have Shia minorities inside their countries as well.....

All of this goes back historically.....both sects spread in conjunction with each other and in some areas....Pakistan and India..Shiaism was the major driving political grouping...and dominated the global Unmah.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...a good one to read if you have not already....

The Shia Revival

from Vali Nasr.....and then just plug in the Iraqi and Syrian events....

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO: 49 attacks on Ukr positions y/day, #Vodyane, #Optyne, #Avdiivka, Novoselivka Druha came under mortars fire. One soldier killed, 4 WIA.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russische #Propagandisten verraten einen Abstellplatz mit russischen #Tankwagen im #Donbass:
https://informnapalm.org/de/russische-propagandisten-verraten-einen-abstellplatz-mit-russischen-tankwagen-im-donbass/#

Russian propaganda reveals actual location of hidden Russian military fuel tankers...

Ukraine war: "Russian shelling comes from the built up residential areas which makes it “impossible” for Ukrainian side to return fire."

EU has been urged to intensify sanctions against Russia or risk a repeat of the Ukraine war in neighbouring Belarus.
https://www.eureporter.co/frontpage/2017/02/15/eu-warned-of-ukraine-conflict-spreading-to-neighbouring-belarus/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine charges Russia with new cyber attacks on infrastructure
http://www.unian.info/economics/1780137-ukraine-charges-russia-with-new-cyber-attacks-on-infrastructure.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

EU warns of consequences of "DPR-LPR" blockade
http://www.unian.info/economics/1780201-eu-warns-of-consequences-of-dpr-lpr-blockade.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference the Russian shot down of MH17.....important......

New #MH17 report:
Identifying Khmuryi, the Major General Linked to the Downing of MH17

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/02/15/identifying-khmuryi-the-major-general-linked-to-the-downing-of-mh17/#

Sergey "Khmury" Dubinsky wrote that he drove a Peugeot 3008 in Ukraine. A black Peugeot 3008 accompanied the Buk that downed #MH17.

THIS is significant

[OUTLAW 09]

From fake news to fake Ukrainians: how Russians posing as Ukrainians distorted Dutch 2016 EU referendum

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/16/world/europe/russia-ukraine-fake-news-dutch-vote.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Alarming increase of hate-speech against Ukraine on Russian state-controlled TV. Read the latest #DisinfoReview:
http://eepurl.com/cB_J9P

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin: #Moscow is concerned about Ukrainian attempts to organize terror attacks in #Russia
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/16-february-moscow-is-concerned-about-ukrainian-attempts#

Putin seems to think payback is a possibility....but more likely to justify more Russian attacks....

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine activists figured out who tortured Iryna Dovhan in #Donetsk on the 2014 pics that went viral. No surprise. #Russian. From #Chechnya

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia reveals how many "Humanitarian aid" trucks take ammo into #Ukraine. Fake trucks on return trip. Full
https://youtu.be/TZPMCrTpdXw

Experts name "hot" trends in Russia's fake news against Ukraine
http://www.unian.info/politics/1780677-experts-name-hot-trends-in-russias-fake-news-against-ukraine.html#

Avdiivka residential area shelled last night. 8 houses damaged. Pics:
http://novosti.dn.ua/news/266863-v-avdeevke-nochyu-obstrelyaly-chastnyy-sektor-povrezhdeny-8-domov#

Russian is attempting their Aleppo tactics on Avdiivka.....

Russian Armed Forces TV: "Kyiv prepares bloody provocation with Finnish journalists"
https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/status/832215834252689412#

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO spox: Enemy continuously shelled Avdiivka from 3 pm until midnight. Militants conducted artillery attacks against Avdiyivka ind area

Turkish government warns Putin: Crimea is not#yours
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/17/turkish-government-warns-putin-crimea-is-not-yours-erdogan/#

Another bloody day in #Avdiivka: 3 Ukrainian troops KIA, 4 wounded, 1 civilian killed between midnight & 6pm today. -MOD & local authorities

[OUTLAW 09]

I can't recall last time when russian troll activity was as intensive as it is now in Ukrainian tweeterdom

[OUTLAW 09]

3 servicemen KIA, 10 WIA in 66 attacks on Ukr positions y/day. Mortars widely applied at Avdiivka, Pisky, Zaytsevo, Shyrokyne, Krymske, etc.

[OUTLAW 09]

After 2 years, Minsk II regarding conflict in eastern #Ukraine not working. #Russia does not want settlement.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/02/15/minsk-ii-at-two-years/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=fp#

[OUTLAW 09]

Damage in Avdiivka after yesterday attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gjdelAXnpQ#

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT as this Russian malware will show up in other western countries very shortly.....

Russia on cyber-offensive in Ukraine: new malware revealed

http://www.unian.info/society/1782376-russia-on-cyber-offensive-in-ukraine-new-malware-revealed.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

DNR is "Ready for war", Putin blames Kiev for everything, #Russia mobilizing army formations. Anyone else see a pattern here?

[OUTLAW 09]

17:08
Russian tank parked between houses and water tower at #Vasylivka, is firing towards UAF positions.

18:09 #Donetsk Orcs dont want to calm down, ka-booms at #Avdiivka continues.

6 pm - orks didn't calm down, booms continue close to #Avdiivka.

DonbasReports February 16
66 attacks on UA positions, most - in Donbas & Mariupol sector
3 soldiers KIA, 10 WIA

Russian army lieutenant call sign Bes (Бес) in #Slaviansk #Ukraine

My 1st tweet on Bezler, 2 days after @SimonOstrovsky's EPIC dispatch on seizure of #Horlivka police station.
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/456885910877921280#

[OUTLAW 09]

Well worth reading this article.....

Fighting Irregular #Wars Well
http://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2017/2/16/fighting-irregular-wars-well#

[OUTLAW 09]

17:08
Russian tank parked between houses and water tower at #Vasylivka, is firing towards UAF positions.

18:09 #Donetsk Orcs dont want to calm down, ka-booms at #Avdiivka continues.

6 pm - orks didn't calm down, booms continue close to #Avdiivka.

DonbasReports February 16
66 attacks on UA positions, most - in Donbas & Mariupol sector
3 soldiers KIA, 10 WIA

Russian army lieutenant call sign Bes (Бес) in #Slaviansk #Ukraine

My 1st tweet on Bezler, 2 days after @SimonOstrovsky's EPIC dispatch on seizure of #Horlivka police station.
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/456885910877921280#

MP Rybak murder Бес gave cmnd, tortured, Стрелок made 2nd torture,"mayor" disposed body2river
http://translate.google.com/translate?

SBU, Rybak: Бес gave cmnd, tortured; Стрелок 2nd torture; The "mayor" dumped the body 2 ditch

Bezler (Безлер aka Бес) was operational in #Horlivka 2 years prior April 2014. Became de-facto ruler of the city.

Remember this @SimonOstrovsky dispatch. He revealed to the World #Bezler, a GRU operative who executed that pogrom.
THIS video is critical...
https://youtu.be/MTdkY8tl2b0

Dear Internet,
I give you Bezler (Безлер, Бес) frm May 21 2014 in #Horlivka.
In 3 months & 3 days later downs #MH17

http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/sbu_russian_intelligence_officer_involved_in_murde r_of_horlivka_city_council_deputy_320582#…

My 1st tweet on Bezler, 2 days after @SimonOstrovsky's EPIC dispatch on seizure of #Horlivka police station.[/B]
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/456885910877921280#

Gloomy is not an idiot - the order was given by Bezler (Безлер aka Бес). Fails to mention accomplice is a crime too.

Gloomy: Key factors in the #MH17 investigation are:
1) Who gave the launch order
2) Who pushed the button

Gloomy, a #GRU oper who transported BUK that downed #MH17, publicly admits he delivered the BUK to wrong destination.
Report is in Russian and is not shown on BBC website in English. See:http://www.bbc.com/russian/news-38995957#…

Thus, Gloomy explicitly confirms his part & truthfulness of @bellingcat's investigation on him.

Big thanks to Okhlobtstin for confirming the main claim of the new @bellingcat research: Sergey Dubinsky is the Khmury who served Strelkov.

MAJOR social media open source intelligence analysis win.....who has been on top of this Russian shot down since the first hour after the shot down.
A major win to @daniel_b_cat, @AricToler, @EliotHiggins. Now waiting for Interpol warrant on Gloomy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine To Renew Search For Remains At MH17 Crash Site After Bone Found
http://www.rferl.org/a/28314852.html

[OUTLAW 09]

19:30 #Avdiivka @zhebrivskyi "Projectiles fall on the outskirts and the positions of UA forces"

19:30 #Avdiivka @zhebrivskyi "Moscovites are shelling #Avdiivka. Boiler-house of #school4 hit, gas flamed up, shut off"

Self-proclaimed leader of DPR terrorist threatens offensive on Ukrainian controlled areas.
https://www.unian.info/war/1782876-leader-of-dpr-terrorist-organization-threatens-to-launch-offensive-on-ukraine-controlled-areas-of-donbas.html#

Ukrainian border guards report increased Russian activity near the border.

A (pro-)#Russian tank fired 10 shells at residential areas of #Avdiivka over the past hours.
2 civilians injured.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sept2014 .@askai707 "LNR" militants in photo w/BTR-70M of RU 15th sep.motor.-rifle brigade

[OUTLAW 09]

FrolovLeaks: Church Scheming. Episode 3:
https://informnapalm.org/en/frolovleaks-church-scheming-episode-3/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Sometimes it is good to go back to the Maidan in order to understand the Russian involvement in Ukraine...

Three years ago #EuroMaidan reached a peak. I was watching the live feed day and night, and this video gave me hope.
https://youtu.be/7B5AXBFeRLM

[OUTLAW 09]

For 3 yrs this tiny section fights War against Ukraine w/endless supply of Russian armor, ammunition & military. Never runs out!

Vice President Pence
✔
@VP
We must hold Russia accountable and demand that they honor the Minsk Agreements, beginning by de-escalating the violence in eastern Ukraine.

BUT WAIT...all words as Pence at the same time bashes NATO/EU for not holding to the 2%...

BUT WAIT....US would have been alone in AFG...Iraq and Syria without NATO troops....flying alone over Iraq and Syria without NATO AFs....

AND not flying constantly over the Baltic....AND all these US troops and equipment in Europe since 2015 until NOW paid for by a 3.5B USD NATO fund.....not a single penny comes out of the US taxpayers pocket....

Notice this is not what Pence stated.....

Merkel: We have to defend the principle of territorial integrity. We cannot accept violations.

She received strong applause and allowed for 15-20 minutes questions from the audience.....

Pence sort of said the same things that Bannon would allow him to say...received only light applause.....Pence allowed no questions as is standard for this WH now.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is having a hard time coming off of their Nazi propaganda line when talking about Ukraine....

Ouch: Sergey Glazyev deletes Twitter account after having derided #Germany's president Steinmeier as "accessory to a Nazi putsch in Kiev".

[OUTLAW 09]

04:55 #Donetsk @postz5 And battle in #Avdiivka [direction] is still ongoing

05:09 [#Makiivka] @ialdr1 Battle in the area of #YaBP or #Promzone

Actually an important ongoing event in Ukraine getting little to no MSM attention......

Blood Money: Coal blockade draws attention to wartime trade
http://bit.ly/2kOzsRD

Actually Ukraine has been paying the Russian zone for coal stolen from Ukrainian mines and then resold to Ukraine as a source of funding for the Russian mercenaries and corruption money...at 300 USDs per ton when South African coal comes in at 80 USDs per ton....includes being shipped to Odessa....in that 80 USDs....

[OUTLAW 09]

Yesterday, at the evening, Russians shelled Trudovskie, Mariupol direction.

73 attacks on the Ukrainian positions yesterday.
4 Ukrainian soldiers WIA

[OUTLAW 09]

Date to remember....today two years ago

2 years ago, on the night of Feb 18 began the withdrawal of 35000 Ukr troops and their heavy weapons from encircled and surrounded by Russian active duty troops Debaltseve...

Another date in the history of war w/ a huge losses

[OUTLAW 09]

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Conspiracies: the bread & butter of pro-Kremlin disinformation. Don't be deceived & read #DisinfoReview:
http://eepurl.com/cB_J9P

[OUTLAW 09]

2 civilians wounded due to the Russian shelling of Trudovskie, 15 houses damaged
http://racurs.ua/news/83325-terroristy-udarili-po-selu-pod-volnovahoy-raneny-dva-cheloveka-razrusheny-15-domov-foto#

Heavy outgoing fire from Makiivka now
Russian militants attacked Maryinka checkpoint

Disinfo_Digest @Disinfo_Digest
Expect more fake news from Russia, top NATO general says
http://reut.rs/2lUYLFH

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov: There are no #Russian army or equipment in #Ukraine. :D

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov: There are no #Russian army or equipment in #Ukraine. :D

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov: There are no #Russian army or equipment in #Ukraine. :D

[OUTLAW 09]

Not sure they know, this would be the end of their beloved flags ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_6xlwR0hiw#

They want the implementation of Minsk 2...which if fully implemented would do away with the mercenaries and their militias and return control to Ukraine...

[OUTLAW 09]

Structure of #Russia|n occupation forces in eastern #Ukraine
http://teabeamet.ee/pdf/2017-en-c482143c.pdf#

[OUTLAW 09]

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Weekend #longread: the annual report from Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Agency:
https://goo.gl/5YiqBU

[OUTLAW 09]

Lavrov ...there are no Russians NOR Russian equipment in Ukraine....:D

Centre: #Surkov, #Russian Presidential Administration senior official
Left: Aleksey Milchakov, sadistic #GRU operator in #Ukraine 2014-2015

[OUTLAW 09]

Surkov, #Putin's PA senior official, next to #Girkin / #Strelkov's wife from #Slavyansk 2014 April campaign. The minder meets the minded.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Spy Whistleblowers Turn on Putin—But Can They Be Trusted?
http://thebea.st/2l2UEWG

Putin signs Russian regulations allowing for the recognition of mercenary documents issued in Donbas....
QUASI annexation.......

MAJOR violation of Minsk 2.....directed squarely at Ukraine and Trump.....

Putin decision re separatist passports symbolic, changes little on ground. But 4 Ukr Sec Coun chief Turchinov means “Russia abandons Minsk”

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Spy Whistleblowers Turn on Putin—But Can They Be Trusted?
http://thebea.st/2l2UEWG

Putin signs Russian regulations allowing for the recognition of mercenary documents issued in Donbas....
QUASI annexation.......

MAJOR violation of Minsk 2.....directed squarely at Ukraine and Trump.....

Putin decision re separatist passports symbolic, changes little on ground. But 4 Ukr Sec Coun chief Turchinov means “Russia abandons Minsk”

UAF now fully allowed to respond to all aggression from Russian troops and her mercenaries....

Muzhenko: Ukrainian military is allowed to respond fully to the enemy's provocations

Poroshenko calls Putin's decree on recognition of "DPR/LPR" documents a fresh evidence of Russian occupation of Donbass

Ukraine security chief Turchynov: by recognising DNR/LNR passports #Putin has abandoned the #Minsk process.

REMEMBER Putin and his FM stated the following repeatedly since 2014....

'We have no influence on the separatists'

[OUTLAW 09]

I'm sure this will be of interest. Next week posting a video detailing how G. Phillips UK citizen who once worked for RT UK as a reporter has broken our UK 2006 terrorism act, in #Ukraine

2014 - 2015 There are dozens of him with weapons and wearing Russian military uniform in #Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

73 attacks, Avdiivka under shelling again, OSCE reports more ceasefire#violations
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/18/february-17/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Hackers show new data exposing Putin's aide Surkov involvement in war in Ukraine
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/18-february-ukrainian-hackers-show-new-data-exposing-putins#

[OUTLAW 09]

19:53 #Svitlodarsk @hu_svetlodarsk Tube artillery is probably shelling from #Horlivka at #Novoluhanske outskirts, well-heard in Svitlodarsk

20:16 #Avdiivka @JuZolyshkaLia About 20:00 power, Vodaphone communication, water supply have been disconnected. Distant booms were heard

"@Palchakkk: район Ябп серия плюсов" 20:05 #Yasynuvata blockpost area - a serie of hits.

20:12 #Horlivka @062_Region Stir in #Vuhlehirsk [=sounds of war from its direction]

Horlivka S-SE - artillery working.

20:34 #Donetsk @rjpthju62rjpthj [fb] Area of #Biryuzova shelled. #Abakumova heard them flying by

Svitlodarsk can hear heavy incoming artillery. Outgoing fire reported from #Horlivka

UPDATE Truce between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian army will come into force on Monday, says Russian FM
http://u.afp.com/4NSR

[OUTLAW 09]

UAF now fully allowed to respond to all aggression from Russian troops and her mercenaries....

Muzhenko: Ukrainian military is allowed to respond fully to the enemy's provocations

Poroshenko calls Putin's decree on recognition of "DPR/LPR" documents a fresh evidence of Russian occupation of Donbass

Ukraine security chief Turchynov: by recognising DNR/LNR passports #Putin has abandoned the #Minsk process.

REMEMBER Putin and his FM stated the following repeatedly since 2014....

'We have no influence on the separatists'

Russia now recognises DPR/LPR passports, license plates, birth/death & marriage/divorce certs, education/professional qualifications...

and "the right to freely cross the border of DPR and LPR with Russia"

[OUTLAW 09]

20:55 #Donetsk #Azotnyi @rjpthju62rjpthj [ok.ru] powerful, loud

20:55 #Yasynuvata @rjpthju62rjpthj [ok.ru] listening to it loud, various [sounds]

20:59 #Donetsk #Zakhidnyi bus terminal @666_mancer [fb] [Outgoing] Grad at #Pisky from #Sarepta storages near #DZRKhI

21:53 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca "Party" has started, loud [=shelling]

[OUTLAW 09]

The Civil Initiative “Army.SOS” released recent aerial photographs of occupied Debaltseve
#DonbasReports 17.02
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/18/february-17/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference Russian shot down of MH17....

SurkovLeaks: Sergey "Khmury"Dubinsky at meeting with Surkov in Rostov last year
pic.twitter.com/30s2TmoOZd
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/18-feb
ruary-surkovleaks-sergey-khmury-dubinsky-at-meeting#

[OUTLAW 09]

Three years ago that day, the pro-Russian Yanukovych regime murdered 80+ Ukrainian revolutionaries.
They died not in vain!
#СлаваГероям

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...she was not in 201 a so called Donbas separatist....



Surkov, #Putin's PA senior official, next to #Girkin / #Strelkov's wife from #Slavyansk 2014 April campaign. The minder meets the minded.

Olga Kulygina aka Hans Christian aka #Girkin / #Strelkov's wife in 2014 next to Surkov in Moscow in Nov 4th 2016.
https://informnapalm.org/en/russia-opens-visas-terrorists-operating-ukraine/#…

She is an GRU armed combatant......

Naturally the #Russian IC disguises their combatants as frontline journalist i.e. ANNA-News. Prior #Syria campaign active in #Ukraine.

[OUTLAW 09]

Award Winning Documentary on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Sharing:
http://www.breakingpointfilm.com

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia declares visa-free entry to DNR/LNR citizens.

Only #SouthOssetia (&Belarus) had that right so far.

Where is Europe to condemn this??

As this was a Russian quasi annexation move....PART of the Russian FM declared post West era it seems....

[OUTLAW 09]

NATO Officials Say Russian 'Fake News' Seeks to Undermine Alliance
http://ow.ly/gKf43098J4J

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....I keep going back to the ever increasing Russian slow stepped economic collapse as a major need to get the sanctions lifted....

Russians are eating less meat, fish, sugar and dairy now, with food prices having doubled.
http://nyti.ms/2kAgwtV

They are now back to about the Soviet 1975-78 economic range....

[OUTLAW 09]

Feb20 Lavrov's Ukraine ceasefire within

X-mas ceasefire within

Sep01 ceasefire within

Minsk2 ceasefire within

Minsk1

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian neo-imperial military expansion.

Russia illegally occupies these regions.

NOW go back and overlay these occupations and notice just how if one draws a connecting line to them it reestablished the old Soviet Union borders...

[Azor]

https://warontherocks.com/2017/02/a-comparative-guide-to-russias-use-of-force-measure-twice-invade-once/

Selected Excerpts:


Look at the battlefields in Ukraine and you will find what was essentially an unreformed 1980s Soviet Army (Ukraine’s), engaged in artillery and tank duels against a proxy force that Russia supplied with comparable 1980s Soviet equipment. Indeed, in the early phases of the conflict when Moscow sought to retain the veneer of deniability, they supplied only that which could be plausibly captured from Ukrainian forces. Actual Russian forces use capabilities that are head and shoulders above what Ukraine is able to field. The Russian approach has been to supplement proxy forces with regular units as necessary, and to the minimum extent possible...

...In Ukraine, the Kremlin was seemingly attempting the ridiculous, trying to use a tiny amount of force to regain a say over the strategic orientation of the largest country in Europe. Russia lacked the force, the money, and the military experience to attempt any large-scale operation. Yet, they coerced Kiev into giving up Crimea without a fight. Later, Moscow got Kiev to sign the Minsk agreements which locked them into Russian terms for settling the conflict. Russia did even better with Washington, often convincing prominent Hill leaders like Sen. John McCain and the op-ed commentariat that a large military campaign was in the offing to establish a “land bridge to Crimea.”

Every few months, the newspapers still ring with expectations of a Russian offensive. Like Pavlovian conditioning, Russia barely has to move a few units around and watch a Western media fueled panic. Moscow has trained the West so well that if every Russian soldier were to depart Ukraine, or Syria, there would be immediate concern that it is only to invade elsewhere (perhaps a “land bridge to Kaliningrad”).

It would be fair to observe that since the signing of Minsk II, the politics have bogged down, and Russia’s coercive credibility has slowly faded. Ukraine’s confidence on the battlefield seems to support this perspective. Nobody has established sufficient leverage over anyone in that conflict. Moscow appears to be playing a waiting game in Ukraine, eroding Kiev’s support among Western countries. Still, if Minsk II continues to go nowhere, it is quite probable that Russia will reapply a brief but hefty dose of force this year...

[Azor]

I have attempted to discuss the options for Ukraine to deal with the Russian invasion, based upon the suggestions put forth by Dueas in Counterinsurgency Options for Ukraine
(http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/counterinsurgency-options-for-ukraine?page=1) and Kofman's analysis of Russian policy in A Comparative Guide to Russia's Use of Force: Measure Twice, Invade Once (ttps://warontherocks.com/2017/02/a-comparative-guide-to-russias-use-of-force-measure-twice-invade-once/).

Firstly, it is crucial for Kiev to fight for support in the West, namely the European Union, NATO and the United States. This means that the sanctions must remain.

Secondly, Kiev needs to make Putin feel threatened, and what truly scares him is peaceful popular revolts (as in East Germany in 1989, Russia in 1991 and Ukraine in 2013-2014) and guerrilla warfare (as in Afghanistan from 1979-1989 and Chechnya from 1994-1995).

How to accomplish this?


Reach out to pro-Ukrainian Ukrainian citizens in both Donbas and refugees from the war in Russia in order to provoke popular demonstrations against the war and to develop guerrilla networks in both. According to the Russian government, there are 2.7 million Ukrainian refugees in Russia, which is a large enough pool to raise a resistance movement of 30,000 and an active guerrilla force of at least 2,000, which should be able to inflict Russian deaths on the order of over 200 per year.

Allow for anti-Kadyrov Chechens to have sanctuary in Ukraine and use it as a base for organizing armed resistance to his faction.

Allow Crimean Tatars to use Ukraine as a base for armed resistance in Crimea.

Allow Ukraine to become a sanctuary for non-ethnic Russian separatists from the Russian Federation, as well as Russian dissidents.

Focus on capturing Russian soldiers and operatives and concentrating media attention on them (in addition to Russian KIAs) for distribution into Russia.


Third, Kiev needs to find a mechanism for accepting the loss of Crimea, which it won't get back, without accepting Russia's annexation. Perhaps Kiev can suggest a UN or OSCE-monitored referendum in Crimea on being part of Russia, with Russian forces confined to their barracks.

Lastly, Kiev requires socio-economic and political restructuring in order to allow for free, transparent and fair commerce and democracy to flourish. Kiev needs both the financial and structural aspects of a "Marshall Plan", but I doubt that the European Union will be in a position to provide this necessary support, either on the financial or advisory side.

Therefore, Kiev needs to establish separate security and economic ties with Poland, Czechoslovakia, the Baltic states and possibly Hungary. This could be an Intermarium that is separate from the EU and NATO, and while it would not provide a separate free trade area or collective defense area, it would provide a bridge for Ukraine to the West.

Moreover, the benefit to the NATO/EU members of establishing an Intermarium with Ukraine would be that the EU and NATO seems less and less interested in its eastern flank, and in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years, there may be no probability that Italy, Spain, France or Germany would come to the rescue of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland.

[Azor]

Azor....I keep going back to the ever increasing Russian slow stepped economic collapse as a major need to get the sanctions lifted....

Russians are eating less meat, fish, sugar and dairy now, with food prices having doubled.
http://nyti.ms/2kAgwtV

They are now back to about the Soviet 1975-78 economic range....

I think that you are exaggerating the economic damage. Russia remains well ahead of where it was during the Yeltsin era. Peak to trough, it looks bad, but Russia is doing relatively well, albeit at a lower level than the 2009-2014 period.

Certainly, Russia is more vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, given that 60% of its exports are commodities compared to 47% for Canada. Both are roughly equally dependent upon exports for their GDP (30%), however, the European Union is far more dependent upon exports (43%), especially Germany (47%).

[OUTLAW 09]

I think that you are exaggerating the economic damage. Russia remains well ahead of where it was during the Yeltsin era. Peak to trough, it looks bad, but Russia is doing relatively well, albeit at a lower level than the 2009-2014 period.

Certainly, Russia is more vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, given that 60% of its exports are commodities compared to 47% for Canada. Both are roughly equally dependent upon exports for their GDP (30%), however, the European Union is far more dependent upon exports (43%), especially Germany (47%).

Azor.....as probably the only commenter here at SWJ who has experienced...travelled and camped the former Soviet Union in the early 70s at the height of the Cold War Era.....rancid butter was a luxury item...bread while and when available a luxury item and eggs were almost existent the society held together due to the images of WW2 and their struggle to survive from then.....supported by a heck of a lot of propaganda....

BUT today is far different they know what the West has for a living standard...they have traveled it as tourists....they know what products are available....and on and on and on....

Old saying tourism educates comes to mind....

I could have posted for the last two years pictures of the Russian roads that make the old US settler trails of the 1800s with their horses and wagons look like modern three lane super highways...compared to what is now in Russia...

When though even propaganda cannot eliminate the pictures of the living conditions in the West as compared to those known in current Russia...combined with ever increasing wild strikes due to no salaries being paid for months....increasing fuel costs...increasing food costs reaching level of the 1980s....and their realizing that the sanctions will remain in place ...it is starting to wear on the common Russian Six Pack Joe on the street.....lemons are lemons and when they increase in price by 500% or become rare then they take notice...

When they see that over 300 Russian banks have failed largely due to oligarch corruption and Ponzi schemes and their savings in those banks are gone...and the list goes on..and the exchange rate is still relatively high for those Euros and USDs they need for travelling.

Russians are a strange lot....there is a large Russian migr community in Berlin....here because of the living standards...crime families...students....businesses tied to gangs and export businesses....also tied to corruption and gangs.

Now day to day they are voicing complaints about what is ongoing in Russia BUT when the Mother Russia propaganda calls they respond as a block against whomever the propaganda says they should attack...

THEN you see them driving massive black Audi Q7 SUVs or MB SUVs and travel back and forth to Russia living the good life between the two....BUT that is not the majority of Russians who now can no longer afford their two vacations a year in Europe before Ukraine and Crimea....

So yes I do stand by the economic observations....

Key observation...they are even running out of things to export for cash....I live near one of the main European intra connecting highways between East and West Europe...on any given day one might have seen before Crimea and Ukraine 500 Russian trucks per day on the roads....right now one is lucky to see say 100-150....that is how far off their exports are....and most of those are carrying semi finished products to be used in further building of German end products coming from German built factories as part of the global logistics just in time delivery system....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian TV shows "vodka" being pumped into Mi-28 helicopter. "Missiles won't fire without it." (Is this what they mean by Spirit of Russia?)

[OUTLAW 09]

Zakharchenko, leader of Russian proxy forces in Donetsk, effectively declares he is not bound by the Minsk agreement.

Quasi Russian annexation is now complete.....Minsk 2 is truly dead in the water now...as Putin will not reverse his recognition of mercenary issued documents....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's occupation forces lob 300 shells near #Avdiyivka. Power lines hit & water supply halted.

73 attacks, 1 civil volunteer perished, 4 soldiers wounded in action

[OUTLAW 09]

.@USEmbassyKyiv slams #Russia recognition of DNR, LNR documents.
http://bigstory.ap.org/3b4d48238330495eacfccc77103d5b98#

Stronger message if came from State Dept or WH.

BUT total silence from either DoS and or WH.....

No apparent US FP as of yet....

[OUTLAW 09]

Clashes in #Kiev between security forces and men in camouflage demanding trade stop with occupied areas in eastern #Ukraine

Security forces arrested multiple persons. Medics say also multiple wounded.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hours before new #cease-fire attempt in #Donbas, omens look bad
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/hours-new-cease-fire-attempt-donbas-omens-look-bad.html#

17:07 #Donetsk @Urriarachentsev #Staromykhaylivka: they start to boom bit by bit. Panes clink, floor jumps

105 attacks on UAF positions on February 18. Grads used in #Mariuol direction. 6 Ukrainian servicemen WIA. - ATO HQ

[OUTLAW 09]

Senate Intel Committee tells Trump administration to "preserve records" related to Russia

Now it starts......

A week before Flynn resigned, plans were delivered to him outlining a way for Trump to lift Russian sanctions
http://nyti.ms/2lwGYUg

IT appears in this NYTs article all those that have been previously mentioned in the Steele dossier that the Trump WH and Trump declared to have been a total fake....

BUT this week IC confirmed portions of that report to have been very valid and true...

NOTICE...this is extremely now interesting about this so called back channel and Ukrainians are paying close attention to who was part of this so called back channel.....

Bizarre tale of Trump associates joining forces with obscure Ukrainian lawmaker to attack Poroshenko and aid Russia.

AND there are no Russian connections on this????

Ukrainian and some initial European comments are now coming in on this NYTs article
While Pence shakes Poroshenko's hand at MSC....

Trump is plotting a Russia-backed "peace plan" to oust him....

So this was the basis for the Trump and Bannon "grand bargain".....

[OUTLAW 09]

Senate Intel Committee tells Trump administration to "preserve records" related to Russia

Now it starts......

A week before Flynn resigned, plans were delivered to him outlining a way for Trump to lift Russian sanctions
http://nyti.ms/2lwGYUg

IT appears in this NYTs article all those that have been previously mentioned in the Steele dossier that the Trump WH and Trump declared to have been a total fake....

BUT this week IC confirmed portions of that report to have been very valid and true...

NOTICE...this is extremely now interesting about this so called back channel and Ukrainians are paying close attention to who was part of this so called back channel.....

Bizarre tale of Trump associates joining forces with obscure Ukrainian lawmaker to attack Poroshenko and aid Russia.

AND there are no Russian connections on this????

Ukrainian and some initial European comments are now coming in on this NYTs article
While Pence shakes Poroshenko's hand at MSC....

Trump is plotting a Russia-backed "peace plan" to oust him....

So this was the basis for the Trump and Bannon "grand bargain".....

If this is correct, then Trump is linked to a Russian plot to undermine government of Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....as probably the only commenter here at SWJ who has experienced...travelled and camped the former Soviet Union in the early 70s at the height of the Cold War Era.....rancid butter was a luxury item...bread while and when available a luxury item and eggs were almost existent the society held together due to the images of WW2 and their struggle to survive from then.....supported by a heck of a lot of propaganda....

BUT today is far different they know what the West has for a living standard...they have traveled it as tourists....they know what products are available....and on and on and on....

Old saying tourism educates comes to mind....

I could have posted for the last two years pictures of the Russian roads that make the old US settler trails of the 1800s with their horses and wagons look like modern three lane super highways...compared to what is now in Russia...

When though even propaganda cannot eliminate the pictures of the living conditions in the West as compared to those known in current Russia...combined with ever increasing wild strikes due to no salaries being paid for months....increasing fuel costs...increasing food costs reaching level of the 1980s....and their realizing that the sanctions will remain in place ...it is starting to wear on the common Russian Six Pack Joe on the street.....lemons are lemons and when they increase in price by 500% or become rare then they take notice...

When they see that over 300 Russian banks have failed largely due to oligarch corruption and Ponzi schemes and their savings in those banks are gone...and the list goes on..and the exchange rate is still relatively high for those Euros and USDs they need for travelling.

Russians are a strange lot....there is a large Russian migr community in Berlin....here because of the living standards...crime families...students....businesses tied to gangs and export businesses....also tied to corruption and gangs.

Now day to day they are voicing complaints about what is ongoing in Russia BUT when the Mother Russia propaganda calls they respond as a block against whomever the propaganda says they should attack...

THEN you see them driving massive black Audi Q7 SUVs or MB SUVs and travel back and forth to Russia living the good life between the two....BUT that is not the majority of Russians who now can no longer afford their two vacations a year in Europe before Ukraine and Crimea....

So yes I do stand by the economic observations....

Key observation...they are even running out of things to export for cash....I live near one of the main European intra connecting highways between East and West Europe...on any given day one might have seen before Crimea and Ukraine 500 Russian trucks per day on the roads....right now one is lucky to see say 100-150....that is how far off their exports are....and most of those are carrying semi finished products to be used in further building of German end products coming from German built factories as part of the global logistics just in time delivery system....

Azor......

Russian State Duma Deputy Vitaly Milonov caught shopping for embargoed fish in Finland
http://ow.ly/TZ9J30967TY

[OUTLAW 09]

Senate Intel Committee tells Trump administration to "preserve records" related to Russia

Now it starts......

A week before Flynn resigned, plans were delivered to him outlining a way for Trump to lift Russian sanctions
http://nyti.ms/2lwGYUg

IT appears in this NYTs article all those that have been previously mentioned in the Steele dossier that the Trump WH and Trump declared to have been a total fake....

BUT this week IC confirmed portions of that report to have been very valid and true...

NOTICE...this is extremely now interesting about this so called back channel and Ukrainians are paying close attention to who was part of this so called back channel.....

Bizarre tale of Trump associates joining forces with obscure Ukrainian lawmaker to attack Poroshenko and aid Russia.

AND there are no Russian connections on this????

Ukrainian and some initial European comments are now coming in on this NYTs article
While Pence shakes Poroshenko's hand at MSC....

Trump is plotting a Russia-backed "peace plan" to oust him....

So this was the basis for the Trump and Bannon "grand bargain".....

This little known proRussian Ukrainian MP was the key individual in the secret proposal passed to Flynn mentioned in the NYTs article....

So now this shows up.....and thus the back channel to Flynn was in the end not so back channel.....

Artemenko says he attended Trump's inauguration at the invitation of Putin fan @DanaRohrabacher

Congressman Rohrabacher is a noted anti Ukrainian prorussian US Congressman who recently met with the French Right wing National Front Party leader Le Pen.....

Artemenko is from the same Ukrainian Party that Manafort was supporting during the former Ukrainian President massive corruption regime...

Manafort also mentioned in that NYTs article....

RUSSIAN response to the NYTs article....

Peskov calls leasing Crimea 'absurd." "How can Russia lease land that is already ours?" Contradicts Artemenko on Putin aides per @nytimes

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like the Russian so called ceasefire inside a ceasefire inside a ceasefire inside Minsk 2 that the Russian FM will great fanfare at the Munich Security Conference was a lot of hot air again....

ATO HQ: Truce disrupted, no conditions for withdrawal of arms
http://www.unian.info/war/1785936-ato-hq-truce-disrupted-no-conditions-for-withdrawal-of-arms.html#

UKRAINE: Military reports additional casualties as fighting continues despite new ceasefire attempt.

[OUTLAW 09]

'Unacceptable' for Russia to recognise Ukraine rebel passports: Germany

ATO spokesperson: Over the past day, 1 UA AF serviceman KIA, 1 WIA. The death of previously MIA serviceman is confirmed. 1 serviceman DOW

[OUTLAW 09]

The @OSCE's Secretary-General Lamberto Zannier condemns the Russian move, reproduces exactly the article's points.

[OUTLAW 09]

Col. Motuzyanyk: Donetsk sector: Yesterday, the fights in Avdiivka lasted 10 hours. Over the day, enemy fired 120+ rounds and 50+ tank shells

[OUTLAW 09]

The @OSCE's Secretary-General Lamberto Zannier condemns the Russian move, reproduces exactly the article's points.

Belarus said it would not recognise #DPR & #LPR documents, despite recent move by #Russia:
http://hromadske.ua/posts/vizd-do-bilorusi-za-dokumentamy-dnr-ta-lnr-nemozhlyvyi-derzhkordonkomitet#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian propaganda tour from Donetsk to Aleppo
https://vk.com/naumova_maryana

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT...Russian stepping up potential internal fighting inside Ukraine proper now....


Ria.ru reports that "Titushki", paid thugs and troublemakers, are gathering in #Kiev

[OUTLAW 09]

Another Kremlin ceasefire: Russian tank attack destroys 4 entire apartments in residential district of Ukrainian frontline town #Avdiivka

EU doesn't recognize travel documents of self-proclaimed Donbas republics
http://www.unian.info/politics/1786661-eu-doesnt-recognize-travel-documents-of-self-proclaimed-donbas-republics.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

62 attacks from yesterday, 1 KIA, 1 WIA.

Blockade campaigners detained in#Kyiv

[OUTLAW 09]

Remembering #Euromaidan: Riot cops and unknown snipers with newest Russian rifles shoot protesters in #Kyiv. You have to sign in to view this:https://youtu.be/nz7cqjiPtdY (https://youtu.be/nz7cqjiPtdY)

Avdiivka: UAV found in a vegetable garden in town's old part, no visible damage

[OUTLAW 09]

Senate Intel Committee tells Trump administration to "preserve records" related to Russia

Now it starts......

A week before Flynn resigned, plans were delivered to him outlining a way for Trump to lift Russian sanctions
http://nyti.ms/2lwGYUg

IT appears in this NYTs article all those that have been previously mentioned in the Steele dossier that the Trump WH and Trump declared to have been a total fake....

BUT this week IC confirmed portions of that report to have been very valid and true...

NOTICE...this is extremely now interesting about this so called back channel and Ukrainians are paying close attention to who was part of this so called back channel.....

Bizarre tale of Trump associates joining forces with obscure Ukrainian lawmaker to attack Poroshenko and aid Russia.

AND there are no Russian connections on this????

Ukrainian and some initial European comments are now coming in on this NYTs article
While Pence shakes Poroshenko's hand at MSC....

Trump is plotting a Russia-backed "peace plan" to oust him....

So this was the basis for the Trump and Bannon "grand bargain".....

Moscow behind MP Artemenko's 'peace plan' – Poroshenko's envoy in Rada
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/4

[OUTLAW 09]

Last weekend ceasefire starting midnight 20 Feb was agreed at Munich Security Conference by "Normandy four"

ATO HQ: 74 attacks on Ukrainian positions, 2+7 Ukrainian soldiers were wounded. 120mm mortars widely used
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/1464296066914528#

[OUTLAW 09]

The EU foot soldiers on the front lines against #fakenews are facing daunting challenge.
http://tinyurl.com/j64pja4

[OUTLAW 09]

The death of the Russian UN ambassador is interesting for a number of reasons applying to both Ukraine and Syria....

Churkin was important part of Russian foreign relations, propaganda, spy/disinformation network - was Rus. Amb to UN since 8 April 2006

Russia effectively dismantled International security system, vetoed decisions by UNSC, limiting adopted decision to Kremlin versions

Since 2006, Russia seized part of Georgia(2008), Crimea(2014), Donbas (2014), provided support to Assad in Syria, launched world cyberwar

On 30 Dec 2016, Rus UN compound in NY was shut down in connection on attack on U.S elections
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/12/30/us-russia-sanctions-alleged-election-hacking/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian lawmakers dismiss Ukraine "peace plan," suspect it originated w/ pro-Russia party
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/02/ukraine-peace-plan/517275/#?utm_source=twb#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...I am not the only one saying an economic crisis is coming....

Consumer spending remains flat; 78% of Russians believe country is headed for an economic crisis.
http://bloom.bg/2m7goPz

.

[OUTLAW 09]

The death of the Russian UN ambassador is interesting for a number of reasons applying to both Ukraine and Syria....

Churkin was important part of Russian foreign relations, propaganda, spy/disinformation network - was Rus. Amb to UN since 8 April 2006

Russia effectively dismantled International security system, vetoed decisions by UNSC, limiting adopted decision to Kremlin versions

Since 2006, Russia seized part of Georgia(2008), Crimea(2014), Donbas (2014), provided support to Assad in Syria, launched world cyberwar

On 30 Dec 2016, Rus UN compound in NY was shut down in connection on attack on U.S elections
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/12/30/us-russia-sanctions-alleged-election-hacking/#

BTW...small side note....Churkin and the then Russian Ambassador in 2015 was the driving individual behind the Russian invitation for Flynn to speak to the GRU officers and then his Russia today 40K paid for dinner invitation...

Ukraine disagreed on UN resolution wording of Churkin's death. Russia fumes, spit tar, yelling what new lows Ukraine diplomacy has reached.

[OUTLAW 09]

Out Wed. 1st film on UK citizen G. PHillips breaching #UK Terrorism act. 2015 illegally in #Ukraine: Uses his drone to fly over Ukr positions

[OUTLAW 09]

CBRN defense truck was spot in new Russian supply convoy - State border service
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/21-february-cbrn-defense-truck-was-spot-in-new-russian-supply#


@EUvsDisinfo lauded here, esp since they have been underfunded and ignored in Brussels
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/world/europe/europe-combats-a-new-foe-of-political-stability-fake-news.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian active duty T90s tanks have been involved in the latest round of ground fighting in Avdiivka...

Avdiivka: #1, #Haharina, Feb16 18:10-18-15" - remnants of a 125mm T-90 tank projectile @rechnikato

NOTE there has been not a single ground report or tweet concerning T90s in the area of this fighting before this shell was discovered.....

T90s were seen in the 2014 Russian invasion and photo'd once in 2015 but that was about it...

[OUTLAW 09]

Donetsk, a "cossack". Reported many fresh para-military/military in the city
pic.twitter.com/vw9edcmWLJ

[OUTLAW 09]

THIS tells me he did not ever believe it would become the front page news of the New York Times........

Ukrainian MP who pushed Russia peace plan to Trump refuses to resign after outcry at home, expulsion from party.
http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news-39037501?ocid=socialflow_twitter#

SO exactly just why did he do this???

[OUTLAW 09]

Kremlin spox says its inappropriate and unacceptable to discuss RU recognition of the Ukraine's "people's republics"
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/550820
#

[OUTLAW 09]

Another good profile of #Ukraine's #Firtash, canary in the coal mine for Trump Justice Dept on #Russia
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-02-16/will-trump-rescue-the-oligarch-in-the-gilded-cage#

A major win for the rule of law...this arrest was instituted under though the Obama WH..

Firtash is key to understanding a lot of what Putin has done in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and is key in a number of extremely large Russian oligarch money laundering schemes including rumors of Putin being involved....

BREAKING: Vienna court grants US extradition request, ruling against Dmitry #Firtash. Judge now explaining decision

He had effectively fought against this for over six long months....after he was unexpectedly arrested while staying in Vienna....where he did not believe the Austrians would arrest him...due to large businesses also being in Austria...

[OUTLAW 09]

As Russia sends another "Humanitarian aid" convoy into #Ukraine, my vid on them carrying military supplies
https://youtu.be/hG8AzTa2_yw
Russia sends NBC recon vehicle with 60th "humanitarian" convoy to Donbas

After every major Russian ground offensive against UAF positions there is always a Russian "aid convoy"....

Actually has become a rule of thumb for Ukrainian fighting...

[OUTLAW 09]

THIS tells me he did not ever believe it would become the front page news of the New York Times........

Ukrainian MP who pushed Russia peace plan to Trump refuses to resign after outcry at home, expulsion from party.
http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news-39037501?ocid=socialflow_twitter#

SO exactly just why did he do this???

Now watch him flee to Russia.....

Ukr Prosecutor's Office of Crimea started criminal proceedings on treason by Ukr MP Artemenko ("Crimean lease")
http://lb.ua/news/2017/02/21/359305_prokuratura_vozbudila_delo_protiv.html#

ACTUALLY what is interesting is some of his thoughts were previously stated by a working group led by Kissinger in Finland back right after Russia annexed the Crimea....in 2014....

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukraine Def. Ministry: Russian occupiers change tactics near Avdiyivka
https://www.
unian.info/war/1788127-ukraine-def-ministry-russian-occupiers-change-tactics-near-avdiyivka.html#

Initially they tried the so called Aleppo method of shelling and damaging civilian housing and critical infrastructure and now.....


"The occupiers have changed tactics near Avdiyivka: the intensity of mortar attacks decreased in the morning, while enemy snipers came to the forefront," Defense Ministry speaker for Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) issues Oleksandr Motuzianyk said at a briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday, February 21, an UNIAN correspondent reported.

"Yesterday, a powerful barrage was reported in the village of Kamianka: it lasted almost seven hours," Motuzianyk said. As UNIAN reported earlier, Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 74 times in the past 24 hours with nine Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action (WIA).