The Baltic states (catch all)

[Stan Reber]

We were using our aging 5-year old platform known as the REMOTEC MK6A when the Estonian government decided to provide us with some investment funds. Our MK6A had done exactly what we wanted and even a bit more. Little did we know what (GSA) 90 grand would now get us, and when the F6A arrived, we thought our MK6A was stone-age. Our F6A looks much like this link, but with several advantages. We can now link two CBRN detectors and remain a full 300 feet away via fiber optics or radio.
Still wondering ?
Included in the price, an instructor from TN came over and we took the robot apart, put it back together and operated it until all was clear.

A fantastic USA-made robot. Ask Kim or Royce in service for quotes.

http://www.es.northropgrumman.com/remotec/f6a.htm

BTW, our dual disrupters are from Royal Arms, CA. Call RJ Brills in Oregon and check out his 12 gauge ammo.

No, this is not a sales pitch, just experience with the robot, its disrupters and the excellent service staff at REMOTEC, and wanted to pass it on.
Regards, Stan

[Tom Odom]

Stan,

Are you guys using dogs--ala RONCO? And are you doing removal or destroy in place?

the stuff you are dealing with is old and I woul assume quite unstable; is that the case?

Best
Tom

[Stan Reber]

Tom,
RONCO's dogs are very expensive, say 15 grand or more. They get dogs at a premium like the USAF as they often buy as many as 50 at a time and we only have 7 at any given time in country. Our dogs are mostly shepherds and trained locally for Explosive Detection (Dogs) (EDD). At least 5 to 7 different types of explosives must be detected, or back to square one and a new dog.

The robot simply permits us some distance with IEDs. Normally we don't use the robot on cleared military ordnance, as one "high order" detonation together with fragaments would destroy the robot.

We typically clear with Vallon detectors and MB4 data recorders. No more signal sweeping, which would drive you nuts in under an hour. That is, the VMH-2 with a larger search head and data recorder means we can "silently" sweep 50 square meters in under an hour and download the targets. From there the "privates" begin to dig :)

Most of the ordnance is WWII era and some WWI. The German stuff looks like new even after 40 years underground. The Russian stuff (ahem) also looks like the day it was made...horrible, rusty and unlikely to go even with a shape charge :eek:

That said, if it's German and the projectile already went down range once (the ogive and obturating band shows rifling) we would most likely destroy in place. If the fuse looks like it will gently come off, we dawn an EOD 8 or 9 and unscrew the fuse. Most of the time, the lead or senior with the response team gets to decide and nobody, not even the police argue. A 50-gram shape charge means 60 to 70 meters stand off distance and low order (breaks in two or three pieces and one hell of a bang). Trouble with the German stuff, the projectile walls are thick and the rounds back then, 170mm carried 11 kgs of high grade Comp B (similar to the USA). Our copper shape charges have in the past bounced off. You already know, without a secondary explosion, the charge went elsewhere and do again.

I have thousands of jpegs, and we often work with ATF and FBI when we find stuff. Sometimes they help and sometimes we help.

Regards, Stan

[Stan Reber]

I hope the attachment made it here. It was dug up and cleaned in September of 04. An RGD33 right out of the movies.
Stan

[Stan Reber]

What do you think ordinary people do when they find this #### ? Put it in the basement and wait for WWIII of course. There is no wonder what criminals will do once they get ahold of this stuff.

Stan

[Stan Reber]

Keep in mind these still work !

[Stan Reber]

four 50 kilo airial delivery bombs. Did you notice, the boneheads forgot the fuses. Could have killed a whole lot of fish back then.
Stan

[Tom Odom]

The German ordnance is amazingly well-preserved. I wonder how much temperature range affects degradation over time. In Sinai the ordnance went quick; same in the Libyan desert. Both places though it became very unstable as the heat allowed the explosive to "melt" and pool. It made for leaky mines and rounds that you just did not want to touch. Rwanda the stuff was "new" as in freshly used and certainly more modern than what you show here. I attached a ppic of a box of Italian AP mines we found on Iwawa after the RPA took the island in Nov 95. These little nasties were what narrowly missed changing me into a soprano forever; I knelt by one unknowingly that 3 hours later blew off an RPA troop's foot. Overall the RPA had 6 WIA to these in the 48 hours after the operation ended. My deminers came in and they found other ferrous mines (like an AT mine where we had beached our boat) but these caused problems. That led me to ask for dogs and we got 10 or so from RONCO. And yes they were expensive. I almost took a RONCO team to Angola after I retired but that war started again so the contract went tango uniform.

Best

tom

[Stan]

Ilves to Estonians: “...those who do not vote will be voiceless for four years, without the right to criticize the wellbeing of the state."

http://www.citypaper.ee/paper/articles/2152/




“Let us show we are not indifferent.”

Estonia’s Independence Day was impressive for many reasons, perhaps most so because of the demonstrative open-mindedness of Estonians. In a room lousy with politicians, poet Peeter Volkonski took the stage with a rock band, citing politicians by name and challenging them to be reasonable people.

Volkonski shouted “aru” (“sense” or “reason”) and was rejoined by a children’s choir singing “pähe” (“into your head”) from behind a curtain. Following his performance he received a whistling ovation.

In a speech which ought to be copied and sent to apathetic non-voters around the world, Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves delivered a matronly admonition in his Independence Day address for Estonians to either put up or shut up: “...those who do not vote will be voiceless for four years, without the right to criticize the wellbeing of the state. Thus, let us use the opportunity to create, with democratic choices, a state for ourselves that we like. Let’s show that we are not indifferent.”

In his speech, Ilves was not short on criticism of his own people. “If Estonia has enemies, we find these in ourselves: indifference, cold-heartedness towards others, arrogance, and not caring about others. Lying, corruption and buddy-protection are our enemies. Hatred, pointless criticism of others, envy and self-centeredness are the enemies of Estonia doing well.”

Bravo, Mr. Ilves, for saying what needs to be said.


If you're wondering where President Ilves learned his communication skills, the answer is easy: http://www.thilves.ee/eng/index.php?content=cv

1976 Columbia University (USA), BA in psychology
1978 Pennsylvania University (USA), MA in psychology
1974-1979 Research Assistant, Columbia University department of
Psychology
1979-1981 Assistant Director and English teacher, Open Education Center
Englewood, New Jersey
1981-1983 Director and Administrator of Art, Vancouver Arts Center
1983-1984 Lecturer in Estonian Literature and Linguistics, Simon Fraser
University, Department of Interdisciplinary Studies, Vancouver

[John T. Fishel]

Stan--

Thanks for posting this. Would that more of our politicians, from both sides of the aisle, heed his admonition!

John

[Stan]

Hi John,
Good question, but my senior NCO (still inside me) says no :eek:

Estonian's tend to be more verbal and straight forward in all matters. That's why I thought it was important to note that the President spent many years in the States and Canada learning, so that we don't jump to some conclusion of him being European.

Other than Clinton trying to play his Sax, not many of our politicians permit a rock band to abuse them and hold them accountable, in front of grade school children in the choir.

Regards, Stan

[Stan]

Sunday Election forecasts: Centre Party

http://www.citypaper.ee/paper/articles/2172/



The Estonian dailies, Eesti Päevaleht and Postimees, have published poll results by Estonia’s two leading polling firms. Both polls predict that the Centre Party will win the elections to take place Sunday. According to one poll, the Centre Party is supported by 25 percent of respondents and the Reform Party by 19 percent. The second poll suggests the Centre Party would receive 35 seats in parliament with 31 going to Reform.

Foreigners, while not allowed to vote in Estonia’s elections, are not shy about voicing their opinions. The consensus seems to be that if the Centre Party would actually be allowed to implement its campaign promises (e.g. 1,600 euro per month salaries for public sector employees), it would throw the economy into a downward spiral.


1,600.00 a month is more than double the average salary. The current levels simply cannot keep up with the EU or inflation. So, other than foreign execs with companies "offshore", all are in favor of a better life.

[Stan]

http://www.valitsus.ee/brf/?id=282027

Prime Minister Andrus Ansip presented his vision of the ten most important topics facing future governments and called for all citizens to actively participate in elections.

“Those are wrong who believe that everything will continue in the same manner by itself or that no matter what we do, things will still go well for us. No, it is not so,” Ansip said. “In order that our good life and welfare continues to grow, we need to act with purpose, prevent apparent stupidities and avoid laziness of thought or just plain laziness”.

[Stan]

Prime Minister Andrus Ansip's coalition government (comprised of the People’s Union, Center Party, and Reform Party) won in elections that ended on Sunday!

Good news for Estonia's military ! Minister Ansip has been a staunch supporter of our missions in support of coalition forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

"Estonia must fulfil the duties it has assumed as an active member of the European Union and NATO."

http://www.valitsus.ee/?id=6458
Earlier in February the Minister has this to say regarding support to the coalition:


According to Ansip, participating in international operations is an essential part of Estonia’s security policy. “It is very easy to maintain a northern placidity and hope that other countries will contribute to international peacekeeping operations. Or to think that crises in the Balkans and outside Europe do not concern us. However, by contributing to foreign missions, by helping others, we also stand for our own interests and strengthen our own security,” he said.

[Stan]

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17438/


The newly-formed Estonian Greens were welcomed to the political sphere by collecting six seats in parliament, or 7.1 percent of votes. It represents an impressive debut for the Greens, who performed as well as the established rural party the People’s Union, who also collected six seats and 7.1 percent of votes.
Ansip claimed a double victory. Not only did his party win the election, but the prime minister also set a new record for the most number of individual votes by collecting 22,556 votes. He can now claim to be the nation’s most popular politician.

[SWJED]

Stan - thanks for the reports and insights - Dave

[Stan]

Thanks Dave,
Seems to be my corner (of the world) herein :D
Regards, Stan

[Stan]

MAKING FRIENDS: After a surprise win in Estonian elections, Prime Minister Ansip looks to form a new coalition.


TALINN – The center-right Reform Party, winner of Estonia's parliamentary elections over the weekend, decided after discussing the results of preliminary consultations to continue bilateral coalition-building talks with the right-wing Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, the Greens and the center-left Social Democratic Party.

More here:

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17445/

[Stan]

Firefighters managed to gather the remains of almost all the bodies


RIGA - Latvia’s notorious fire safety record made international headlines last week when a blaze ripped through the attic of a three-story convalescent home for disabled people, taking 25 lives and once again raising difficult questions about fire prevention and personal liability. The fire in Alsunga, a town in western Latvia some 15 kilometers from the Baltic coast, was triggered by either an electrical overload or someone smoking in bed.

The remainder of the story:
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17402/

[Stan]

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17443/


The chairman of Estonia's Russian-speaking Constitution Party, Andrei Zarenkov, was the third party leader to announce his intention to step down over the party's poor performance in the March 4 parliamentary elections.
Zarenkov said in a letter to fellow members of the party on Tuesday that at a forthcoming joint meeting of the policy-making council and the Nochnoi Dozor (Night Watch) movement he intends to raise the question of confidence in his own leadership and questions about the party's future existence.
The Constitution Party collected only 5,470 votes across the country – 1 percent of total votes.
The leader of the Left Party, Sirje Kingsepp, and People's Union chief Villu Reiljan have already announced their intention to resign as well.

[Stan]

Amnesty's row with Estonia over minorities heats up
By Ben Nimmo Mar 1, 2007, 17:53 GMT


Almost a third of Estonia's 1.35 million inhabitants are ethnic Russians, but the state's only official language is Estonian. The inspectorate's job is to maintain the national language's status.


When Estonia declared the renewal of independence in 1991, it decided to only grant automatic citizenship to those families which had been citizens before 1940. All other residents could achieve citizenship by passing exams in Estonian language and history.

This is a 16 year long battle here. In order for me to legally work here, I had to learn and be tested in Estonian Language, Culture and History. The ethnic Russians have lived here for 50 years and can barely muster a 'thank you' in Estonian. How much time do you need ? I had 13 weeks in 95 :wry:


But officials at the inspectorate dismissed the claims, saying that the amendments simply change the organization's legal status.

'The amendments don't make a difference to our work. What they mean is that while we worked under a government regulation before, we're now regulated by law,' inspectorate spokeswoman Hele Parn told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.


'It is a bad piece of work, ahistorical and unbalanced. It echoes Kremlin propaganda in a way that Estonians find sinister and offensive,' wrote Edward Lucas, the Economist's regional expert.

More on this here: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe

[Old Eagle]

Tanaan, Herra Reber.

[Stan]

Old Eagle,
That would actually be this way: Tänan, härra Reber.
Seega, Suur tänu Sullegi !

Sorry 12 years of this Eesti keel :eek:

[Old Eagle]

That's cool; not sure I can make my keyboard do that.

[goesh]

Si, si, peristroka!:D

[Stan]

Mar 07, 2007
By Joel Alas
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17450/

No kidnapping this time around :eek:


TALLINN - Their charge sheet reads like a film script – a gang of 33 Estonians accused of swiping six million euros worth of valuables from a string of Italian jewelry boutiques. But for the alleged thieves, the reality of their crimes bit hard this month when an Estonian court signed an order for their extradition to Italy.

[Stan]

I guess you can teach a Ruskie new tricks :D


The Estonian government ruled on Thursday to grant Estonian citizenship to 838 people, mostly Russian- speaking ones.

These people have complied with all necessary criteria and passed tests on the knowledge of the Estonian language, the constitution, and the law On Citizenship, the government press service told Interfax.

The government plans to naturalize annually about 5,000 aliens in the coming years.

Out of 1.4 million people living in Estonia at the present time, some 125,000 have no citizenship and about 100,000 others are citizens of Russia and other former Soviet republics.

[Stan]

Mar 12, 2007
Staff and wire reports
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17486/



Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip said a coalition agreement could be signed by March 26. Early indications point to a coalition between Reform, the Union of Pro Patria and Respublica (IRL), the Social Democrats and the Estonian Greens.

It is widely expected that the Center Party will be exiled to the opposition benches of parliament.
Talks are underway between the four parties, with key agreement points under heavy discussion. Ansip said there was “no signs of anyone intending to drop out” of the negotiations.
Ansip said that the partners had very frankly discussed the dangers that could face a four-party coalition. He said that as long as everyone admitted the importance of passing decisions by consensus and constructive cooperation, the existence of four parties wouldn't necessarily create any particular tension.
"We theoretically know that the most stable coalitions are those formed with the lowest possible majority of votes. If some party turns out to be downright superfluous, it usually doesn't extend the life of a coalition."
Family policy was discussed at a meeting on March 10. Ansip said there was great agreement concerning the partners' aims, but the ways leading to them as well as the costs varied from party to party. "There is little certainty that our present budget permits coverage of all the wishes," Ansip said.
But Ansip added that the Reform Party would have no concessions in its main promise - lowering income tax.

[Stan]

A good read about Estonia.

Tiny Estonia Shines as Post-Soviet
Economic, Democratic Powerhouse
by Larry Luxner


Washington-based Freedom House gives the Baltic nation a one out of seven—the highest possible score—in both political rights and civil liberties, noting in its Freedom in the World 2005 report that “Estonia’s civil liberties score improved from two to one due to the effective implementation of judicial reforms and greater economic freedom.”

More Here:
http://www.washdiplomat.com/March%202007/a5_03_07.html

[Stan]

This is little more than a good read, but doesn't really belong in the "Jobs and Job Seekers" section.




Estonian prisons have been suffering from chronic lack of prison guards for years. Currently, 749 guards monitor 4,200 prisoners, leaving 228 vacant positions. The Ministry of Justice attributes the deficit to poor wages, though they note, on the positive side, that newer prisons require fewer guards.

City Paper has written extensively about one of Tallinn’s prisons. Click here for one perspective: www.citypaper.ee/articles/903/

[Stan]

Mar 14, 2007
TBT staff


A recent poll has reported that 70 percent of the respondents were satisfied with the results of the parliamentary elections of March 4. Nearly half of the respondents – 45 percent – support a coalition of the Reform Party, the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL), the Social Democrats and the Greens.
A coalition of the Reform Party and the Center Party would be supported by 36 percent, a coalition consisting of the Reform Party, IRL and the Social Democrats by 25 percent, and one of the Reform Party, IRL and the Greens by 20 percent of those interviewed.
According to a separate Faktum & Ariko poll published last week and commissioned by the daily Eesti Paevaleht, 64 percent of the respondents found that the coalition of the Reform Party, IRL and Social Democrats was the most suitable for them.

[Stan]

Did you ever imagine a Russian Consumer Watchdog :eek:


Estonia bans marketing of Georgia’s Borzhomi mineral water


Excessive amounts of barium metals in Georgia’s mineral water was the main reason for such a ban, the official said. The long-time usage of the water that contains this chemical element may increase risks of cardiovascular diseases. Another argument that prompted this step is the absence of Borzhomi-38 and Borzhomi-41 on the EU list of mineral waters allowed for use, which is an obligatory condition.

Estonia markets 600,000 litres of Borzhomi a year.

On March 16, Latvia banned Borzhomi from marketing, as barium metals exceeded six times the maximum permissible concentration.

The Russian consumer rights’ watchdog imposed a ban on marketing of Borzhomi last May, as it violated the effective sanitary standards. Georgia assessed this step as economic blockade.

[Stan]

Mar 26, 2007
Joel Alas and BNS

He shot high for the post of PM, but on national TV got his hand slapped in the cookie jar. Not exactly what he wanted as a parliamentarian, and certainly not what most people in Tallinn wanted (back again). His 2005 Mayor-like adventures did little for the capital city, but did indeed helped with his vacations.



With the Center Party likely to be relegated to the opposition benches, party leader Edgar Savisaar appears eager to find a key position to occupy his time. He is now set to return to the post of mayor of Tallinn.

The Center Party holds outright power in the Tallinn City Government. The current mayor Juri Ratas ran as a candidate in the recent parliamentary elections and collected a large number of votes. On March 23 Ratas announced he intended to take his seat in parliament, clearing the way for the Centrists to appoint his replacement.

Savisaar, meanwhile, is unlikely to be content serving as leader of the opposition party in parliament, but has chosen to wield power in City Hall, which controls development within the capital. Savisaar said that he had promised the people of Tallinn he would serve them as mayor before the 2005 local elections.

The rest here:
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17576/

[Stan]

Mar 28, 2007
By TBT staff



The Baltic states are preparing to mark the three year anniversary of their admission into NATO. As the day approaches, Estonia draws praise for its efforts, Latvia analyzes the impact that NATO membership has had, and Lithuania prepares to celebrate the event.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns expressed gratitude on Monday, March 26 for Estonia’s participation in the ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The praise came with a grain of salt, however, as the American official also used to opportunity to implore other European countries to increase their contributions to the operation.


The agreements of the Baltic states with NATO have been an Air Policing Mission in which other European countries rotate responsibility for controlling Baltic air space, cooperation with military fleets, particularly in the field of mine clearing, and an international training of special operation units to fight terrorism. All three Baltic states lend their aid to the mission in Afghanistan.

More here
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17582/

[Stan]

Mar 30, 2007
By TBT staff


The Estonian Head of State spoke about the choices facing Europe and the present and future of the Old World. “An apathetic or outright negative attitude toward the (European Union) Constitutional Treaty forces many members of the union to search for new solutions and pushes us in the direction of a core-Europe being created,” said President Ilves. “There is no sense in thinking that the world’s most successful economic union will stop short; the question is rather whether all its members will be able to participate equally in the European Union success story, he added”


The rest of the story here:
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17619/

[Stan]

UK pressures Estonia to join whaling commission

http://www.citypaper.ee/paper/articles/2752/




The UK embassy in Tallinn has been lobbying for Estonia to join the International Whaling Commission, though no whales have ever been caught in Estonia (a swordfish was caught in a net several years ago). A treaty alliance with Estonia would help the commission in its struggle against countries favoring no-limit whaling.

Ambassador Nigel Haywood, a fine fly fisherman himself, remarked that catching whales for commercial purposes might be allowed again if the country consensus shifts. According to Estonia’s Ministry of Environment, Estonia is principally against catching of whales for commercial purposes, but supports controlled and limited whaling, the objective of which is to retain traditional whaling in certain areas such as Greenland, Iceland and Norway.

[Stan]

Apr 13, 2007
BNS


Baltic nations may form a joint infantry battalion to send to NATO missions. A meeting of the Baltic Military Committee will see the heads of the three nations’ defense forces discuss the formation of such a battalion.

Estonia’s Maj. Gen. Ants Laaneots, Latvia’s Brig. Gen. Juris Maklakovs, and Lithuania’s Maj. Gen. Valdas Tutkus will meet at the Leigo farm in south Estonia on April 12 and 13 to discuss further cooperation between the Baltic nations.

Also slated for discussion is Baltnet, the joint airspace monitoring system, Baltron, the joint naval squadron, and Baltdefcol, the Baltic defense college.

Their previous 'BALTBAT' peace keeping Battalion was the Baltic State's first joint military effort and has successfully served along side coalition forces for 10 years.

[Stan]

Russia's ITAR-TASS - coverage regarding Estonian President Ilves' responses to a BBC interview (very poorly translated, but that's the way I received it :cool: ).


Turning to the question of deployment of American military bases in the Estonian territory, Ilves said that “nobody has requested so far for a permission to deploy a NATO military base” in Estonia, but “if such a request is received, this question will be debated by the Estonian parliament, and a voting will be held”.

“Estonia has already NATO bases: our country is a member of the North Atlantic alliance, and, therefore, all objects of Estonian defence forces are NATO objects,” he stated.

[Stan]

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/17681/
Apr 16, 2007
BNS

Reportedly 15,000 Estonians reside in Canada and wonder about their connections to home. The promised visa-free U.S. entry is also dwindling following the POTUS' visit in November.


Latvia’s important diplomatic link with Canada may be dealt a blow, with plans by the conservative Canadian to cut costs by closing its embassy.

The Canadian Press news agency reported that its government was considering slashing the budget of the Foreign Affairs Department, which could lead to the closure of 19 diplomatic missions.

As well as Latvia, embassies in several Balkan, Asian and African countries might also be closed. Late last year Canada closed its consulates in St Petersburg, Milan and two in Japan.

Such an action would be a heavy blow for relations between the two countries, which have always remained close because of the large number of Latvians who reside in Canada.

Latvia’s president Vaira Vike-Freiberga was raised and educated in Canada. Canada was also the first country to ratify Latvia’s accession to NATO in 2003.

[marct]

It's a budget problem unfortunately. I don't think we should close our embassies, but....

Marc

[Stan]

Hi Marc,
Indeed a hard sell. We (both) got them started years ago and now it's time to go (exit strategy in US lingo).

I suppose if the 'fatherland' was across the street and Canada or the US split, I might start to wonder too.

[Stan]

AFP, April 18, 2007 reports


The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have decided to ask NATO to continue patrolling their skies until 2018, when the three alliance newcomers expect to take over the job, an official said Friday.
"The chiefs of the Baltic defence forces decided to ask NATO to continue with the current air defence solution at least until 2018, under which other NATO members patrol our skies," Estonian military spokesman Andres Sang told AFP after a meeting of Baltic army leaders in Estonia.
"Meanwhile, the Baltic states will continue joint activities to enhance their air defence capabilities," Sang said.
"We will continue the development of the joint radar system Baltnet, carry on joint training and devise more long-term plans on how to carry on after 2018," he said.
The formal request to NATO will be made by the three governments later in the year, he said.

The current agreement over the NATO patrols runs out next year.
More established members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) have taken turns patrolling the air space of the three Baltic states since March 2004, when Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the alliance.
Currently, France is policing the Baltic skies. Romania is due to take over in August.
The Baltic states, which regained their independence from the Soviet Union 16 years ago, lack sufficient aircraft and personnel to run the patrols themselves.

[Stan]

The truth is simple: all of us, who live in Estonia, will go on living here. Despite last week. Together. Side by side. (http://www.president.ee/en/duties/statements.php)



Let us not be misled by looters who acted in the shadow of the night – they would have taken their opportunity to steal sooner or later. They will be handled efficiently by our police and our courts.

A few days ago, I found a webpage with several snapshots of Tallinn, set up by a young woman called Maria, under an extremely relevant heading – ”We are Russians, but our homeland is Estonia”. Thank you, Maria!

We must truthfully admit that the aim of the hate-mongers was foul – they wished that Estonians and Russians should not get along. Yet the hate-mongers are bound to be disappointed, because we shall not be drawn into discord. This is the best way to show that we are above those who manipulate us. I know that our country is rich in both wise Estonians as well as wise Russians, and I know also that neither of them are as stupid as to be affected by toothless hate-mongers.

[Stan]

This morning the Cato Institute (http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8254) made the argument that NATO should rethink its commitments to the Baltics.

Seems the isolationists at CATO have concluded that the Baltics are worthless and don't merit defense.


Indeed, a crisis could result if a future Russian president concludes that NATO's mere presence in the Baltic region is an intolerable intrusion into Moscow's rightful sphere of influence.

Sphere of influence ? A quick scan at Wikipedia, defines an SOI as "an area or region over which an organization or state exerts some kind of indirect cultural, economic, military or political domination." At least Wiki doesn't list Estonia under the Russian sphere of influence.


In any case, the U.S. should never have undertaken military commitments to the Baltic republics. These obligations are a dangerous liability, and the U.S. must extricate itself from them.

A tad too late methinks ! I'm sure NATO thought long and hard about assistance to the Baltic States and concluded it was in fact feasible to defend. An attack on the Baltics would be a disaster for Europe with tens of thousands of refugees and a financial burden on Sweden and Finland.

Regards, Stan

[Stan]

Estonian President Ilves' 4th of June speech in a conference on democracy (http://www.president.ee/en/duties/speeches.php)


Lack of democracy is a pre-condition for aggressive international behaviour – would North Korea, Iran, Saddam’s Iraq, Sudan or a host of other despotically ruled countries engage in or threaten war if they were democratic? – it’s unlikely. Our question at this conference is what do we, the community of democratic countries do about this?


Since the liberation of Eastern Europe from undemocratic communist rule we have come to accept as a truism that Democracies do not go to war with each other. Before I look more carefully at what this idea entails, allow me to begin rather bluntly by asking a question I couldn’t even imagine asking when I wrote my talk: if it is true that Democracies do not go to war with each other, then what is a country that threatens to target its nuclear missiles at Europe doing in the G-8, the club of large industrial Democracies? Either the proposition is wrong or the G-8 is based on something else than a common commitment to democratic rule.



I used to think that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were disliked because of something we did wrong. I realize now that it is because we did something right. At the same time, all of these small or smaller countries – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia, have problems with only one country, Russia. Russia on the other hand seems to have problems with lots of countries. Perhaps it is time to wonder why, and why they all happen to be countries that have chosen democracy.

[Stan]

"The Estonian Minister of Defence (http://www.mod.gov.ee/?op=news&id=1226), Mr. Jaak Aaviksoo, met with the Deputy Commander of the NATO Training Mission, Major General Ernesto Alviano, and the commander of the next training mission, Lieutenant General James Dubik. Minister Aaviksoo also met the Commander of the Multi-National Force (Iraq MNF-I), General David Petraeus, who oversees all forces in Iraq."


Mr. Aaviksoo and General Petraus discussed the current situation of the Iraqi operation and changes in the security situation in Iraq. The general confirmed that co-operation with the Estonians is excellent and Estonian platoon serves as an invaluable ally for the USA combat forces.

The minister rated the operations of the NATO Training Mission very highly and confirmed that Estonia will continue to participate in the mission. He stated that the international community must definitely continue to support the Iraqi security forces with training. “The operations of the NATO Training Mission will acquire even higher importance as the security situation improves,” the Minister of Defence said. He added: “Therefore, being NATO members, we’re glad to see that the organisation has taken an obligation to contribute to the training and supplying of the Iraqi army.” Two Estonian staff officers are currently serving in the NATO Training Mission.

Estonia has contributed weapons (2,400 AKs and 2.4 million rounds of ammunition) and a computer class with 11 work stations within the framework of the NATO Training Mission in 2005. Estonia has also supported the training provided to the Iraqi forces through the Trust Fund. The contribution made in 2005 and 2006 amounted to 50,000 and 50,000 EUR, respectively.

The Minister of Defence will return to Estonia on Saturday.

[Stan]

The Estonian Head of State met with SECDEF Gates to discuss a number of initiatives, including support to Georgia for future NATO membership.

President Bush recently approved an Estonian plan to create a NATO Center of Excellence.


President Ilves and Secretary of Defense Gates spoke in detail about the NATO cyber-defense center planned for Estonia, about the practical questions related to its creation and the participation of the United States in this project, for which United States President George W. Bush expressed his support during yesterday’s meeting with the Estonian Head of State.

“Cyber-security is one of the greatest challenges at the beginning of our century and one facet is the technical and legislative solutions needed to defeat cybercrime and cyberattacks,” noted President Ilves.

The Estonian Head of State and United States Secretary of Defense also spoke about bringing the Georgian and Ukrainian armed forces into compliance with NATO standards, which both Estonia and the United States are supporting.

More here (http://www.president.ee/en/duties/press_releases.php?gid=96125)

[Stan]

From today's VOA (http://voanews.com/english/About/2007-06-27-voa89.cfm) PRESS RELEASE - Washington, D.C., June 28, 2007


During the on-camera interview topics ranged from Estonia sending troops into Iraq and Afghanistan, questions of cyber security, and relations with Russia.

Discussing Estonia's memberships in NATO and the European Union and the potential complications in relations with Russia, President Ilves stated, "we are Western Allies". Then he continued, "...there are people who basically don't think that Eastern Europeans should have the same rights and freedoms as Western Europeans. I think it's a spurious argument."

Asked about Estonia's role in Afghanistan and Iraq, President Ilves commented that it is the duty of NATO democracies to support one another and said, "We are there because it's the right thing to do."

Recognizing Estonia's important role implementing computer technologies, President Ilves advocated establishing a legal framework to address the challenges of cyber security.

More at the link

[Stan]

Yesterday evening on Camp Bastion (http://www.postimees.ee/280607/esileht/siseuudised/269184.php) in Southern Afghanistan, Estonian soldiers held a memorial ceremony for two fallen Estonian soldiers, the first Estonians lost in Afghanistan. The two soldiers were members of a mine clearance team in the Helmandy province and were reportedly killed in a missile attack.

The news reached Estonia on the evening of the 23rd, when the nation was celebrating both mid-summer and Victory Day.

In his comments to the Estonian press, President Ilves called on the nation to continue supporting the international missions. “They were not just soldiers but mine clearance specialists whose duty it was to clear Afghanistan. This shows how difficult and dangerous our struggle is together with Afghans for a peaceful Afghanistan. This shows that we have no right to break this mission.”

Joint statement (http://www.mod.gov.ee/?op=news&id=1249) from Estonia's Prime Minister, Minister of Defence and Minister of Foreign Affairs


These members of the Estonian Defence Forces lost their lives in defending the security of the Republic of Estonia by fighting against the global threat of terrorism. We are participating in the operation in Afghanistan at the request of the Afghan Government, as a NATO member, shoulder-to-shoulder with the rest of the democratic world, as a family of 37 countries contributing to the stability of the world and making it a better place in which to live.”

It is regretful that we have to pay such a high price in defence of our values. Only we can defend our values; not even our allies will defend our values if we are not ready to defend them ourselves.

Today we take for granted that ensuring stability and peace in the world is the duty of a responsible nation. Estonia will continue to contribute to the operation in Afghanistan at this difficult moment, as we cannot let terror, death and destruction prevail, seeds which have been sown by terrorists.

Kadri Liik, Director (http://www.icds.ee/index.php?id=63&L=1) of the Tallinn-based International Center for Defense Studies opined "Estonians generally supported the Afghanistan mission. The Middle East is a direct concern for Estonia, with or without America. If things boil over there, there are direct implications for Estonia. Noone in government has bothered to make a more sophisticated argument than that we have to support our allies.”

[goesh]

Good post, Stan. Perhaps our best friends truly are the smaller nations.

[Stan]

Estonia (http://www.kmin.ee/?op=news&id=1343) has decided to participate in a NATO and PFP Countries project aimed at supporting Georgia in destroying out-dated and dangerous unguided missiles and rockets.


The project involves destroying 8780 S-8 unguided missiles and Alazan and Crystal anti-hail rockets located in the former Vartsikhe and Depolistkaro air defence bases in Georgia.
The unguided missiles and rockets that are to be demilitarised are long pass their expected life and are kept in unsuitable storage conditions, and as such have become a threat to the environment.

According to the Estonian Minister of Defence, supporting Georgia means increasing the security of not only the region itself but also on a greater scale. “If they were to end up in the wrong hands, such weapons could also cause much harm in NATO area of operations.

[Stan]

Estonia's prime minister (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/11/28/america/NA-GEN-US-Estonia.php) reiterated on Wednesday, during a visit to meet with U.S. officials, his country's commitment to maintaining troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.


PM Andrus Ansip said that his government was motivated by the two countries' security needs and his own country's history.

"We got huge help when this help was needed for Estonia," he said at a press event after a meeting with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney. "Now to help others, this is our moral duty, so we will stay in Iraq and Afghanistan until our help is no longer needed in those countries."

[Ron Humphrey]

It was one of the first lessons I learned when I was young and I will never forget it.

One cannot necessarily count on the goodwill and support of those who give less than what they have available in your time of need, but when others offer up more than they can afford to help you, then you know they are true friends.

Estonia, and many others have shown this willingness to support despite the difficulties, and I think we could also put Mr. Blair in that considering he basically sacrificed his political capital in support of that which he believes in.

Good friends are hard to find, Real friends are hard to miss

[tequila]

Lord Palmerston's quote still holds true. Sentimentality makes for good speeches and press releases, but when the rubber meets the road, it generally doesn't last long.

If a new President took a more conciliatory line towards Russia, I doubt we'd see Estonian troops in Iraq or Afghanistan for very long - and indeed why should we?

[Stan]

Interesting point, Tequila !


Lord Palmerston's quote still holds true. Sentimentality makes for good speeches and press releases, but when the rubber meets the road, it generally doesn't last long.

If a new President took a more conciliatory line towards Russia, I doubt we'd see Estonian troops in Iraq or Afghanistan for very long - and indeed why should we?

It may be good speech material for Lord whoever, but telling the US SecDef you promise pretty much means you will, come hell or high water.

Estonia's current President just so happened to live and study (since childhood) in Canada and the USA. Guess who he thinks Estonia should be sentimental with and supportive of? Not Russia :D

[Ron Humphrey]

No permanent friends, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.

In this context would it be best to try get other countries to be more friendly towards us , or should we focus on the alignment of their interests and ours?

Or maybe we just continue with the general premise that what we want is what is best for the people whereever they may be ,and those who feel the same stand with us.

Be careful when trying to use business ideals in determining cause for action in reference to social society.

Just like the difference between business ethics and personal mores, interests and ideological motivations are apples and oranges and must be seen as such.

Great speakers in history give orations on ideals, and hopes associated with actions because they were aware of that difference.

A lot of things are cut and dry but international interactions ain't one of them.

[Stan]

Estonian Army 1st Lt. Kaido Kivistik, platoon leader for Estonian Platoon 15, congratulates Lionville, Ala., native Spc. Wesley Guy, a mechanic with Troop B, 1st Squadron, 7th Cavalry Regiment, 1st "Ironhorse" Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, during an award ceremony at Camp Taji, Iraq, Dec. 3.

More at the link... (http://www.blackanthem.com/News/living/Photos-Estonians-Ironhorse-troopers-honor-partnership12371.shtml)

[Stan]

In speaking about the operation in Afghanistan (http://www.mfa.ee/eng/kat_137/9126.html), Foreign Minister Urmas Paet emphasized that success can not be achieved by using military means alone.


“The situation in Afghanistan demands the implementation of more civil measures. Primarily, international organizations like the UN and the European Union should increase their contributions and expand their activities alongside NATO,” said Paet.


The main topics discussed at the meeting were the NATO-led operation in Afghanistan, the situation in Kosovo and in the Western Balkans in general, and issues related to NATO enlargement and relations with partner countries. A meeting of the NATO-Russia Council and NATO Ukraine-Commission also took place, as did a meeting between NATO allies and the Mediterranean Dialogue countries.


The foreign policy leaders also discussed matters related to NATO enlargement. At the moment, Croatia, Macedonia and Albania are preparing to become members of the alliance within the framework of the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). An invitation to join may be issued to these nations at the next NATO summit in April 2008, depending on how successfully the countries do their “homework” of implementing reforms. According to Foreign Minister Urmas Paet, the results-based enlargement process will increase the security of the entire Euro-Atlantic region. “The prospect of acceding to NATO is a motivator for all European nations to move forward on the path to reforms, integration and democracy,” said Paet. The foreign ministers will continue to discuss the potential expansion of NATO at their next meeting in March of next year.

[Stan]

Estonia's parliament (http://en.rian.ru/world/20071219/93250103.html) backs military presence in Iraq until 2009


TALLINN, December 19 (RIA Novosti) - Estonia's parliament voted 53-29 in favor of extending the country's military deployment in Iraq until the end of 2008, the parliamentary press service reported on Wednesday.

The move followed a UN resolution on Tuesday extending the mandate for the U.S.-led multinational force (MNF) in the country for another year.

The country has been involved in the Iraqi campaign since 2003 and has around 150 troops currently deployed there and in Afghanistan.

Latvia, another Baltic NATO member, has dramatically reduced the number of soldiers in Iraq, while Lithuania has completely withdrawn its forces.

Estonia's government has budgeted 37.6 million kroons (about $3 million) to support the 2008 Iraqi mission.

[Stan]

Less than four years after they joined NATO, former Soviet republics (http://www.urlax.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=87619&Itemid=47) Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have been advising their one-time Communist allies on how to join the 26-nation military alliance.


...the Baltics were once more in the centre of attention on Thursday as NATOs defence ministers gathered in the Lithuanian capital,...

Three former communist countries - Albania, Croatia and Macedonia - are currently candidates for the membership. And the Baltic states have already held several talks with them on NATO integration.

The Baltic states assistance extends beyond promoting the Adriatic countries membership of NATO. They have offered the Adriatic countries development aid out of a sense of solidarity and strategic interests in Brussels, David Galbreath, a political observer at the University of Aberdeen...

For Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, sharing the EU and NATO experience stems from their sense of "corporate responsibility" to assist other countries in transition to common European values, Galbreath said.

The Baltics have also been lobbying NATO to extend membership to the former Soviet states of Georgia and Ukraine, encouraging NATO to withstand pressure from Moscow, which sees Georgia and Ukraine in its sphere of influence.

[Stan]

According to a routine public opinion poll by Estonia's MOD, 73% of Estonian residents support Estonia’s NATO membership (http://www.kmin.ee/?op=news&id=1483).



90% of those polled consider completing Defence Forces service necessary or completely necessary for young men. The attitude towards evading military service is predominantly negative and the provision of alternative service for young men, who are deemed unfit for compulsory military service, is considered either completely necessary or necessary.

81% of the residents of Estonia consider the Defence Forces a reliable institution, which includes 88% among Estonians and 66% among non-Estonians, respectively. The Defence Forces ranks sixth in the list of twenty-three institutions, used in the poll.

[Stan]

Estonia’s Prime Minister Andrus Ansip (http://www.valitsus.ee/?id=1449) spoke up in defense of Estonia's participation in military missions abroad, calling it Estonia's moral duty to the West.


Recalling discussions on foreign missions that took place during the NATO summit in Bucharest, the head of government stressed that Estonia fully supports improving military-civilian cooperation in mission areas.

"It is not possible to achieve a breakthrough in Afghanistan by military means alone, and it's not what one has been trying to do," he said, adding that alliance members have also invested in the strengthening of the country's civilian structures, and will continue to do so.

The militaries of all three countries are also participating in training each other as part of the Baltic Battalion (http://www.bdcol.ee/index.php) Staff Intelligent Wolf in Tartu, Estonia this week.

[Stan]

Seven NATO nations (http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/05-may/e0514a.html) and the Allied Command Transformation signed the documents for the formal establishment of a Cooperative Cyber Defence (CCD) Centre of Excellence (COE) in Tallinn, Estonia.


The centre will conduct research and training on cyber warfare and include a staff of 30 persons, half of them specialists from the sponsoring countries, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Spain.

“The need for a cyber defence centre to be opened today is compelling,” said General James Mattis, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, at the signing ceremony, “it will help NATO defy and successfully counter the threats in this area.”

[selil]

Now I know why I got about 300 hits on my blog downloading everything on Cyber Warfare from Europe.

[kaur]

Between 19.-22.08.1991 was in Moscow putch. Siloviki of that era tried to turn back the collapse process of Soviet Union. On 20.08 Estonian republic declared independence (after the occupation). This was bloodless non-violent resistance that led to this result in Estonia. This case study is already classics in theory. In Estonia this is called Singing revolution.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_coup_attempt_of_1991

About theory

http://www.aeinstein.org/

The movie

http://www.singingrevolution.com/

... the point is that yesterday there was concert in our capital and there you can see the feeling of the masses. This is not rock concert. This is something more.

http://www.epl.ee/artikkel/439120

[Ron Humphrey]

Thanks for posting them

As with any great experiment such as ours in America there are issues of balance such as the freedom to either feel nationalism and patriotism or not.

And in all cases those within the nations will and do determine which it will be and as such truly control their own destiny without regard to or even inspite of outside influence.

One can only hope that these many fledgling democracies are able to progress as successfully along the path as your country and in turn help to strengthen one another through the open exchange of ideas in every form.

[kaur]

Europeans see Moscow as security threat
By James Blitz in London

Published: September 22 2008 23:06 | Last updated: September 22 2008 23:06



Indeed, the Harris opinion poll for the Financial Times, conducted after the conflict between Russia and Georgia last month, indicates the citizens of three west European states would strongly oppose their national armies defending east European nations from a Russian attack.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4530e1dc-88f0-11dd-a179-0000779fd18c.html

[Michael F]

I'm not really surprised by those polls.

From a European point of view, people have an other approach to international relations. Despite major setbacks to its development, the EU is the model of international relations European dream to see on a world scale: Relations between nations are defined by laws, treaties (and not by a balance of power), each states gives up part of its power in exchange of mutual cooperation (EU institutions). Such consociationalist modell was especially en vogue after the end of the Cold war. Europeans still consider dialogue, negotiation as the only way. Military efforts is a very lowly reguarded instrument of Foreign policy (except in case of Humanitarian crisis).
If asked to choose between social or military spendings, logically, Europeans will choose social spendings.

About perceived threats, Russia is seen as a potential threat, but escalation is considered the worse option. Dialogue with Russia is the preferred one.

Striking is the fact that the country perceived as being the main threat to global stability for Europeans is the US….. It relates directly to the consociationalist idea most Europeans have. To improve global stability, international dialogue and legitimacy are crucial. The US intervention in Irak, Guantanamo, the refusal to commit to the Kyoto agreement or the treaty banning the landmines are considered immoral (human rights) or illegitimate (No UNSC approval for US intervention) or selfish (global warming). It does not mean that Europeans consider the US as an enemy. Europe was so used to the US as the leading defender of democracy and international justice that the disappointment is great. It’s a bit like learning that a fireman put fire to a building…..

The main problem in European logic is that it disqualifies sheer power as a way to stabilize the world while the main problem of the US recently was to consider military power as a way to solve most international problems. The solution is in between.

Should the next US President (whoever it is) show more consideration on specific issues (guantanamo, Kyoto, Irak,…), Europeans will move the US from biggest threat to stability to main defender of international stability. Should the Europeans understand that international peace can only be reached if diplomacy and military strength are both necessary and the US will stop consider some of us like selfish lame ducks.

More diplomats in the US, more military in Europe will even the balance and create a strong Duo to face such crisis as the Georgian one.

[kaur]

Nato's top military commander has demanded the authority to draw up detailed military plans to defend former Soviet bloc members for the first time since the alliance expanded eastward.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/3146941/Nato-commanders-to-draw-up-plans-to-defend-ex-Soviet-bloc-members-from-Russia.html

[jmm99]

Hey K, glad this one did not escape your radar screen - it missed mine.

Craddock's request, if rejected or tabled, will be very devastating to NATO - as a traditional collective defense alliance. The polls do not look good (your OP); and the following from the article looks like an impasse.


France and Germany have signalled opposition to the move but Gen Craddock has the strong backing of American and Britain. But even US officials acknowledge there is a risk that the move will cause a rift within Nato. "This becomes politicised very quickly," a Pentagon official said.

As I've noted several times in other threads, Article 5 does have weasel-words. In the Fulda Gap era, everyone ignored the weasel-words for obvious reasons. Craddock says, in effect, "put up". The question is whether Europe and the US (its polls are not that favorable, either) will, at the least, allow a contingency plan.

The new NATO members could well be asking what would NATO do in the absence of a sound collective military plan for their defense. The answer has to be "not much".

Keep your radar tuned to this one - as I am sure you will. It is important.

[kaur]

Stratfor's Friedman has couple thoughts about NATO problem.

The German Question


So while Germany remains committed to its economic relationship with the West, it does not intend to enter into a military commitment against the Russians at this time. If the Americans want to send troops to protect the Baltics and Poland, they are welcome to do so. Germany has no objection — nor do they object to a French or British presence there. Indeed, once such forces were committed, Germany might reconsider its position. But since military deployments in significant numbers are unlikely anytime soon, the Germans view grand U.S. statements about expanded NATO membership as mere bravado by a Washington that is prepared to risk little.



NATO has no real military power to project to the east, and none can be created without a major German effort, which is not forthcoming. The German shift leaves the Baltic countries exposed and extremely worried, as they should be. It also leaves the Poles in their traditional position of counting on countries far away to guarantee their national security. In 1939, Warsaw counted on the British and French; today, Warsaw depends on the United States. As in 1939, these guarantees are tenuous, but they are all the Poles have.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081006_german_question

[Stan]

Asian Times, 09 October 2008
(http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JJ09Ag01.html)

BRUSSELS - A recent request by the highest military commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for the authority to draw up full defense plans for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, could lead to a serious rift in the alliance as it wars over how to deal with Russia.

When Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the alliance in 2004, Afghanistan and terrorism were NATO's top concerns, whereas Russia was seen as an aspiring strategic partner. The alliance therefore did not draw up "contingency plans" or full defense strategies for the three Baltic states, a shortcoming which now looks like an anachronism after the events in Georgia exposed NATO's soft underbelly.

NATO officials privately concede that the three Baltic nations are the most exposed among all 26 allies. Although none of the eastern European allies have full contingency plans drawn up for their defense, some amount of planning has been done for all - except Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

London's Daily Telegraph, which first broke the story, said Craddock recommends Estonia, with its large Russian-speaking minority and increasingly fraught relationship with Moscow, be the first Baltic beneficiary of a NATO military risk-assessment study.

Baltic countries meanwhile fear that the trend towards accommodating Russia could materially affect their security, and that political considerations could begin to erode NATO's commitment to mutual defense.

Much more at the link...

[Ron Humphrey]

Does this mean that since it's not important enough to at least pretend that NATO might actually live up to commitments in case of an attack on these countries, that we can go ahead and throw away any plans that have been developed in helping Germany should the Russians decide to pressure(blackmail) them the same way they have others(Restricting resources upon which they depend)?:confused:

I think maybe we need to have a worldwide rerelease of the Three Musketeers
(pick your favorite version)

All for One and One for all!
or maybe not :(

[Stan]

An interesting twist Ron. Estonia certainly is not pretending and I'm thinking they have all bets hinged on NATO. The F-16s cover the Baltic airspace is great, but are they actually here to do anything?

Chancellor Merkel has most of us puzzled these days, and the Nordstream pipeline is now back on track. She came down hard following Georgia, but it didn't take long to fizzle out with subsequent meetings in Moscow.

Hmmm, is there a plan to bail out Germany if Russia shuts the gas off :rolleyes:


Does this mean that since it's not important enough to at least pretend that NATO might actually live up to commitments in case of an attack on these countries, that we can go ahead and throw away any plans that have been developed in helping Germany should the Russians decide to pressure(blackmail) them the same way they have others(Restricting resources upon which they depend)?:confused:

I think maybe we need to have a worldwide rerelease of the Three Musketeers
(pick your favorite version)

All for One and One for all!
or maybe not :(

[kaur]

Russians, Germans Disagree over War


A conference entitled “Changing Russia: Perspectives for the Development of Russian-German Relations” took place last weekend in Moscow. Well-known politicians, businessmen and journalists attended. Kommersant correspondent Morits Gatmann observed how the conversation on Russian-German relations turned into a heated argument over the war in the Caucasus.

http://www.kommersant.com/p1040152/r_527/Russia_Georgia_South_Ossetia_conflict_journalism/

[Stan]

Russians, Germans Disagree over War

http://www.kommersant.com/p1040152/r_527/Russia_Georgia_South_Ossetia_conflict_journalism/


Karl-Georg Wellmann, member of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee who was representing the German point of view...Wellmann spoke rather harshly about the Georgian President. “I don’t believe that Saakashvili has a political future,” Wellmann said. He also said that, from Germany’s point of view, “Providing Georgia a NATO membership action plan in December is impossible.

Wellmann may want to consult with NATO Defense Ministers about his thoughts. They are conveniently all together :D

NATO-Georgia Commission (http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/10-october/e1010c.html) meets at Defence Ministers level in Budapest

[jmm99]

Here is Doug Bandow's contribution to the subject, as of today.


The NATO Alliance: Dangerous Anachronism
Doug Bandow
October 17, 2008
......
The impact of the Russia-Georgia war continues to reverberate. Gen. James Craddock, NATO's Supreme Commander, has requested authority to develop contingency plans to defend the Eastern European countries. ....

http://www.antiwar.com/bandow/?articleid=13603

Tis not my purpose here to argue the pros and cons of Mr. Bandow's views. You can (and will) draw your own conclusions.

One comment in the article struck my eye:


.... The 27 members of the European Union have a larger population and GDP than America and are well capable of asserting their own interests. Since they can rely on Washington, they spend only about half as much on the military as does the US, and have created forces with just a fraction of the combat capabilities of America's military. Moreover, they are talking about cutting outlays in the midst of the ongoing economic crisis. However, if they could no longer free ride on the US, they would have to honestly assess the risk of Russian aggression and take whatever steps they deemed necessary to prevent such a possibility. And they could decide whether Georgia, Ukraine, or any other country truly was a "bulwark against Russian expansionism."

The EU also has a much larger larger population and GDP than Russia (now below 150 million). In fact, the countries nearest Russia (not counting Belorus & Ukraine) have a substantial combined population.


(from 2008 CIA World Factbook)
Sweden - 9,045,389 (July 2008 est.)
Finland - 5,244,749 (July 2008 est.)
Estonia - 1,307,605 (July 2008 est.)
Latvia - 2,245,423 (July 2008 est.)
Lithuania - 3,565,205 (July 2008 est.)
Poland - 38,500,696 (July 2008 est.)
Czech Republic - 10,220,911 (July 2008 est.)
Slovakia - 5,455,407 (July 2008 est.)
Hungary - 9,930,915 (July 2008 est.)

Of course, building an alliance from the above would be akin to herding cats. And, in an era where Sweden has more generals than cannon (and more admirals than warships), the military inclination of some of these nations seems questionable.

What say all about Mr. Bandow's suggestion "if they could no longer free ride on the US, etc." ?

[Stan]

It will be remembered that after the August events in Georgia Estonia has become very nervous.


Crowds of Russians on the Eastern borders became a nightmare for Tallinn. Local politicians initiated a foretelling contest: when the adversaries will occupy the country and where they will stop afterwards. Most of them agreed that the Russians would occupy the Baltic region within a year or two and will stop somewhere in Lisbon area. The newspapers got to drawing directions of Russian tank blows over the native land. Americans were quick to calm down the alarmed Estonians.

From September 30 the country’s airspace has been guarded by four American F15C Eagle jets (http://www.baltische-rundschau.eu/?p=2892). It goes without saying they are not capable of checking the Russian invasion.

Roughly speaking the West is reluctant to assign EUR 64 mln to protect Estonia from Russia. In fact The West is quite sick and tired of Estonia. On November 12 the US defense minister Robert Gates arrived in Tallinn. He immediately was attacked by a question whether NATO had a plan of Estonia protection in case of a Russian invasion? The minister answered crossly that the alliance was constantly making up plans. The latest discussion on security in the Baltic region took place in September.

[Fuchs]

I am collecting & analyzing information about the Baltic and blogged about the Baltic defense challenge months ago.

I've got some preliminary results and a quite plausible scenario.
The terrain seems to be quite defensible with strong forces, but the Baltic armies are almost non-existing and were misused as auxiliary troops providers for expeditions.

Feel free to send my hints like
* landscape photos,
* military history reports about combat there,
* maps,
* info about the roads and
* reports about possible advance speed of the Russian army in pursuit.


Maybe someone wasn't exactly pleased by my headline.
I concluded that the USA wouldn't be more relevant than France and less relevant than Poland and Germany for the defense of the Baltic states because of the geographic and political conditions as well as what I consider as a quite promising fictional Russian strategy there.
Most U.S. forces (except at most one division equivalent and some dozen combat aircraft) would arrive only after the decision.

[Stan]

Hey Fuchs!
OK, I'll bite for now.


I am collecting & analyzing information about the Baltic and blogged about the Baltic defense challenge months ago.


Care to post or send me a link to peruse?


I've got some preliminary results and a quite plausible scenario.
The terrain seems to be quite defensible with strong forces, but the Baltic armies are almost non-existing and were misused as auxiliary troops providers for expeditions.

At this point I would have to disagree, but not totally. The terrain does indeed lend itself to formidable defensive positions, and, also nearly precludes a large Russian first strike from successfully reaching the political capital in one piece. There's but one MSR in, and far too much hiding (similar to what a single platoon did to the Red Army at 200:1 odds under German guidance in 80 hours).

Hint: The only Russian tanks in Estonia are mired under 10 meters of marsh (with their original drivers) :D



Feel free to send my hints like
* landscape photos,
* military history reports about combat there,
* maps,
* info about the roads and
* reports about possible advance speed of the Russian army in pursuit.

Sorry, you're the one completing an IIR and Blog. Satisfaction comes from doing SAID yourself (which, would support your current theory).


Maybe someone wasn't exactly pleased by my headline.
I concluded that the USA wouldn't be more relevant than France and less relevant than Poland and Germany for the defense of the Baltic states because of the geographic and political conditions as well as what I consider as a quite promising fictional Russian strategy there.
Most U.S. forces (except at most one division equivalent and some dozen combat aircraft) would arrive only after the decision.

No druthers here with your opinion. The current fighters covering the Baltic are little more than early warning (slightly faster than Russian Iron me thinks) as are most of the cooperative agreements. Politically speaking, a little rally 'round the campfire works here far better at quelling fears.

Perception - They appear concerned with good reason and years of experience, and some think the Baltic States are another Georgia. Not tooting the NATO horn herein, the single difference is a united country with a few disgruntled (retired) Red Army folks with no desire to return home. Hardly a resistance movement in the shadows.

Hope to see your blog link!

Regards, Stan

[kaur]

make Swedes worry ...


Foreword

In spring 2007 Estonia was subjected to an Internet blockade
lasting several weeks. During this time the net did
not work normally. It became hard to reach authorities
and the mass media via the Internet, for a brief period
Internet banks had to interrupt their business, and for
several extended periods it was hard to communicate
with the rest of the world via the Internet.

How would Sweden cope with a similar situation?

http://www.krisberedskapsmyndigheten.se/upload/3040/Large%20scale%20Internet%20attacks_utb-ser_2008-2.pdf

[kaur]

This exercise started yesterday in Estonia.


Singing Revolution

The Singing Revolution is a commonly used name for events between 1987 and 1991 that led to the restoration of the independence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.[

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singing_Revolution

Estonian song and dance celebration 2014. Almost 100 000 participants.

http://2014.laulupidu.ee/en/

[kaur]

Supersize panoramic photo from the event. Use the buttons on the right hand. Maximize the photo to full screen ja use the mouse.

http://laulupidu.postimees.ee/2847349/postimehe-superpildilt-leiab-peoline-end-ka-parast-laulupidu

[BrentWilliams]

I thought this was interesting enough to start a new thread. The base question is broader then the thread title, I think. Basically, will Russia expand its aggressive behavior to NATO members?

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6110037/estonia-russia-officer-kidnapped


On Friday morning, less than 48 hours after President Obama delivered a speech in Estonia warning that Russian aggression against Estonia could trigger war with the US and NATO, Russian security forces have seized an officer with Estonia's state security bureau at gunpoint and taken him into Russia.

Estonia says the officer was kidnapped (or "abducted") on Estonian soil and taken across by force. Moscow says the Estonian officer was on Russian soil and detained with a gun, 5,000 euros and "materials that have the character of an intelligence mission." Nearby Estonian police radios were reportedly jammed during the incident.

[davidbfpo]

A British report on the incident adds more context:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/07/russia-parades-detained-estonian-police-officer?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

[carl]

Yes, Russia will expand its aggression toward everybody everywhere. They will continue to do so and increase the level until they are stopped, physically stopped-as in a crook isn't stopped until a cop collars him or the neighbors beat him up. Since Russia is a dictatorship, that means Putin himself has to be hurt. That means a lot of Russians have to die and a lot have to be impoverished through actions of the West and not so West. That will hurt him politically. And he had to be hit in his wallet. That is probably much more easily done than people think because I suspect most of his billions are not in Russia but in the West. What fool would keep most of his money in Russia? So his money could be got at.

Of course it will take a little bit of nerve on the part of the West to do that. Just a little. And that is the tragic part of this whole thing, it wouldn't take much but we can't even get up the little nerve it would take. This is like the scene in Of Mice and Men where Curly is punching Lenny in the face but Lenny doesn't reach down and break his hand, he just continues to take it.

David, there is one thing I haven't seen commented on given Russia's newly found appetite for mischief making. I haven't seen anybody comment on the possibility of them attempting to take advantage of separatist sentiment in Great Britain. Have you seen anything about that?

[davidbfpo]

Carl asked:
David, there is one thing I haven't seen commented on given Russia's newly found appetite for mischief making. I haven't seen anybody comment on the possibility of them attempting to take advantage of separatist sentiment in Great Britain. Have you seen anything about that?

I have not spotted any such coverage; to be fair I do not follow RT for example. As the referendum day gets closer media coverage is growing e.g. BBC World Service has an Arab reporter there.

[davidbfpo]

Amongst all the nations wondering what their future is as Russia asserts itself Estonia has a special perspective and fear that NATO will not protect it one day.

This short paper (8 pgs) by an Estonian author 'Nothing New in Hybrid Warfare: The Estonian Experience and Recommendations for NATO' offers:
This brief describes current and historic thinking about hybrid warfare, arguing that hybrid tactics are not as new as it often may seem. Based on Estonia’s example, this brief outlines some counter-action activities that can be initiated at the national level. Finally, it suggests action NATO could take against the hybrid threat during the time between the summits in Wales and Warsaw in 2014 and 2016
Link:http://www.gmfus.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files_mf/1423169222Maigre_HybridWarEstonia_Feb15.pdf

[davidbfpo]

In January 2015, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense published a manual for the Lithuanian people to use in case of a foreign invasion. It notes that “citizens can resist aggression against their country not only through armed [struggle]. Civilian-based defense or nonviolent civil resistance is another way for citizens’ resistance against aggression. (…) This method is especially important for threats of hybrid war.” The Lithuania manual statement captures the essence of this study: recognition of the threat to European countries of unconventional warfare launched by Russia, understanding of the limitations inherent in armed response, and acknowledgement of the potential of nonviolent resistance in countering aggressive hybrid war.
Link:http://advanced.jhu.edu/academics/graduate-degree-programs/global-security-studies/program-resources/publications/white-paper-maciej-bartkowski/

[davidbfpo]

Much has happened to the three states since the last post here; a number of posts are on the Ukraine threads as all three view Russia as a 'clear and present danger'. There's also a current thread on one's states assessment of hybrid warfare and that will be merge dhere now.

This is a short commentary on one, Latvia although Lithuania and Estonia get a mention:http://strifeblog.org/2015/03/17/latvia-what-the-russians-left-behind/

[davidbfpo]

A short article citing Lithuania's top soldier:http://www.baltictimes.com/lithuania_has_learned_five_important_lessons_from_ ukraine__chief_of_defence/#.VRWvlWNx4Ww.twitter

[Bill Moore]

A short article citing Lithuania's top soldier:http://www.baltictimes.com/lithuania_has_learned_five_important_lessons_from_ ukraine__chief_of_defence/#.VRWvlWNx4Ww.twitter

They get it, Mao and others did the same thing to protect their states/societies against subversion.


The fifth lesson learned, according to Zukas, is that the society has to be prepared to act if there is a war. In early 2015 the Ministry of National Defence introduced a publication entitled "What We Must Know to Prepare for Extreme Situations and War". Zukas says that a joint mobilisation and civic resistance system is being developed. Public-spiritedness and patriotism are currently being promoted, and information about the Lithuanian armed forces and opportunities to undergo military training is also being advertised.

[kaur]

Estonian think tanker about Russian threat.

Moscow Lacks Available Forces to Seize and Hold Baltics, Estonian Military Expert Says


But Jaan Murumets, a senior Estonian military analyst who now works at Tallinn’s Center for Defense Studies, says that there is another reason why Russia will not invade: it lacks the available forces to seize and then hold the territory of the three countries and control their borders

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2015/04/moscow-lacks-available-forces-to-seize.html

[omarali50]

The Ukrainians have some thoughts about what could be done

http://empr.media/opinion/analytics/intermarium-as-a-comprimise-solution

[davidbfpo]

More of an update on the theme of non-violence and the Open Democracy article's title is 'Countering hybrid war: civil resistance as a national defence strategy':https://www.opendemocracy.net/civilresistance/maciej-bartkowski/countering-hybrid-war-civil-resistance-as-national-defence-strateg

The first paragraph:
Since the annexation of Crimea and the start of conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Russian form of hybrid war that spearheaded these events has raised significant concerns among eastern European states (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/01/us-ukraine-crisis-baltics-idUSKBN0GW2IT20140901) about an effective response to non-traditional warfare. Russia’s hybrid war – a term meaning a mixture of conventional and irregular warfare – has presented a vexing problem to conventional armed defense. It also demonstrates the need to determine whether a national strategy of nonviolent civilian defence can be a viable option for the current and potential victims of hybrid war to fight back non-militarily.

Puzzled by this reported opinion polling in Poland:
A recent opinion poll in Poland, however, showed a far more nuanced gamut of responses. Last month, the survey asked Poles what they would do if their state faced armed invasion (http://www.tvn24.pl/wiadomosci-z-kraju,3/sondaz-dla-faktow-tvn-tylko-27-proc-polakow-walczyloby-za-kraj,525137.html) by another country. Tellingly, 37 percent of respondents – the equivalent of almost 12 million Polish adults if applied to the nation’s population – said they would resist foreign aggression “not by fighting with arms, but by engaging in other, non-military activities.” Only 27 percent declared it would take up arms. The remaining would emigrate, were undecided or would surrender.

[davidbfpo]

Well this is a surprise:
Estonian online daily, Postimees Online, has reported Germany will send rotating infantry troops to Estonia in 2016....Speaking to Postimees Online, the head of Germany’s defence committee, Hans-Peter Bartels, said: “Basically, a rotating company will be sent to three Eastern European countries for a few months, maybe for three months, to take part in exercises.”
Link:http://www.baltictimes.com/germany_will_deploy_rotating_infantry_troops_to_es tonia_in_2016/#.VVunjaly5YU.twitter

Now if others followed this example that should alter Putin's calculus IMHO. IIRC of NATO's twenty-eight members only one has no military, Iceland. So twenty-seven companies divided by three Baltic states, nine companies on rotation would easily manage short tours.

[Bill Moore]

Maybe Germany is countering the so-called Intermarium proposal? See the link at omarali50's post.

NATO, EU, and U.S. need to do a better job of countering Russia propaganda regarding the Baltic states. They were independent, Estonia was fought over between Sweden and Russia (changed hands a couple of times). During WWI, the USSR signed an agreement with Germany that gave Estonia to Germany, then after Germany was defeated, Russia invaded, and the British fought a few naval battles until Russia recognized Estonia's independence. The USSR invaded again in 1940s and imposed a brutal regime (of course, it was Stalin). Then the Germans again, then the Soviets again. Neither were welcomed, in fact Estonians resisted Soviet rule well into the 1960s (resistance movement called the Forest Brothers). Bottom line is Russia's claims are illegitimate. Glad to see the new Germany stepping up.

[kaur]

I'd like to add to Bill's chronology this event. I think Russians did the same thing successfully 90 years later in Crimea. In Estonia they failed:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Estonian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt

[kaur]

Sunday, May 24, 2015
Narva is Not Next, Kasekamp Says

Paul Goble

Staunton, May 24 – Since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and its continuing subversion of other parts of Ukraine, many have asked whether one or another of the Baltic countries might be Vladimir Putin’s next target, given that his strategic goal is clearly the breaking apart of Europe and the United States and discrediting or even destroying NATO.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2015/05/narva-is-not-next-kasekamp-says.html

[davidbfpo]

A short report by Edward Lucas, usually a writer for The Economist, but published by a previously unheard of US think tank that focusses on teh Baltic States: http://t.co/5ylOnZf7wX

The Summary:
urope’s new front-line states are the Nordic five (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), the Baltic three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), plus Poland. These countries (the NBP9) share a common concern about a revisionist and rapidly rearming Russia. On paper they are rich enough to defend themselves: their combined gross domestic product (GDP) is $2.3 trillion, roughly a third more than Russia’s $1.7 trillion. But the NBP9 are divided—into NATO and non-NATO, EU and non-EU, big and small, rich and poor, heavy spenders on defense and free riders. These countries’ strategic incoherence, their resulting inability to defend themselves without outside help, and the threat this creates to NATO’s credibility in the region make the NBP9’s security an issue of global importance. Only the United States can spur the NBP9 to start the close security and defense cooperation needed to counter the Russian threat.
This report was presented by the author as a draft in May 2015, during the CEPA Strategic Assessment Group meeting at Helenow Palace, Poland. The Strategic Assessment Group is an ongoing effort at CEPA, which brings together prominent U.S. and Central European strategists and defense planners. The goal of the group is to assess the changing strategic enviornment for frontline NATO member states as a result of the war in Ukraine. The recommendations reflect the inputs from members of the Group.

[Azor]

In Opinion: Putin’s next land grab looks like the Suwalki Gap
http://europe.newsweek.com/putin-russia-suwalki-gap-426155?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=/putin-russia-suwalki-gap-426155?rm=eu#

Lithuanian private army of 'elves against trolls' to combat Russian influence online
https://apnews.com/27ce7f001bde4ccb9415ce4a0de74af1#

This is just silly. Since when has Putin decided that NATO is fair game? Neither Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine or Syria are NATO members. The Suwalki Gap would only be important if Russia and NATO went to war: not before.

[OUTLAW 09]

This is just silly. Since when has Putin decided that NATO is fair game? Neither Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine or Syria are NATO members. The Suwalki Gap would only be important if Russia and NATO went to war: not before.

I think if one reads the article carefully they were writing it from the Russian non linear perspective...meaning playing the ethnic minority card much as Russian plays the "protect the Russian speakers" card initially if one remembers in both Crimea and Donbass....

[Azor]

I think if one reads the article carefully they were writing it from the Russian non linear perspective...meaning playing the ethnic minority card much as Russian plays the "protect the Russian speakers" card initially if one remembers in both Crimea and Donbass....

Well, the two Polish counties that comprise the Polish side of the Suwalki Gap contain 136,000 people, of which 47,000 are ethnic Belorussians (35%) and 5,900 are ethnic Lithuanians (4%). In the greater Voivodeship, there are over 1,137,000 Poles, comprising 96% of the population.

In Lithuania, the ethnic Russians are far from the Suwalki Gap...

Therefore, I don't see much room for Russia stirring up trouble Donbas-style...

The only way for Russia to seize the Suwalki Gap is by direct military force against Lithuania and/or Poland.

[OUTLAW 09]

Well, the two Polish counties that comprise the Polish side of the Suwalki Gap contain 136,000 people, of which 47,000 are ethnic Belorussians (35%) and 5,900 are ethnic Lithuanians (4%). In the greater Voivodeship, there are over 1,137,000 Poles, comprising 96% of the population.

In Lithuania, the ethnic Russians are far from the Suwalki Gap...

Therefore, I don't see much room for Russia stirring up trouble Donbas-style...

The only way for Russia to seize the Suwalki Gap is by direct military force against Lithuania and/or Poland.

Right now Russia has an intensive info war campaign in gear in an attempt to raise issues/distrust between Lithuanians and Polish ethnic groups...

[Azor]

Right now Russia has an intensive info war campaign in gear in an attempt to raise issues/distrust between Lithuanians and Polish ethnic groups...

Poles and Lithuanians have always had differences. I can't think of any major grievances that Putin can exploit. Moreover, Poland and Lithuania have taken the lead in building unity along NATO's eastern flank and supporting Ukraine. If Poland can put aside the loss of Lwow and the legacy of the OUN in order to help Ukraine in its negotiations with Moscow and Brussels and to help defend itself, then I'm sure Lithuania and Poland can get along...

[OUTLAW 09]

Poles and Lithuanians have always had differences. I can't think of any major grievances that Putin can exploit. Moreover, Poland and Lithuania have taken the lead in building unity along NATO's eastern flank and supporting Ukraine. If Poland can put aside the loss of Lwow and the legacy of the OUN in order to help Ukraine in its negotiations with Moscow and Brussels and to help defend itself, then I'm sure Lithuania and Poland can get along...

Azor...actually agree with this...But and there is always a but when dealing with Russia....that does not stop them from conducting their ongoing info war at the two ethnic groups in the hope of stirring up internal trouble.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....heads up....Russian non linear warfare is now officially afoot in the Baltics....remember the "Gap".....

Kremlin activated its local assets, established new #Russian speaking party - #Estonian National Party (ENP)
http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/kes-toetavad-uue-vene-erakonna-loomist?id=76828876#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Moscow Lacks a Plan to Ensure Kaliningrad Region’s Security, Regnum News Agency Says
http://www.interpretermag.com/january-6-2017-2/#15885#

[Azor]

Moscow Lacks a Plan to Ensure Kaliningrad Region’s Security, Regnum News Agency Says
http://www.interpretermag.com/january-6-2017-2/#15885#

Putin will build a nuclear reactor in Kaliningrad, just as soon as he finishes the bridge across the Kerch Strait and ensures that 70% of Russian military equipment is "modern". ;)

Kaliningrad is both an asset and a liability, not unlike Taiwan.

[Azor]

Azor.....heads up....Russian non linear warfare is now officially afoot in the Baltics....remember the "Gap".....

Kremlin activated its local assets, established new #Russian speaking party - #Estonian National Party (ENP)
http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/kes-toetavad-uue-vene-erakonna-loomist?id=76828876#
…

Yes, and that gap is in Poland and Lithuania, hundreds of clicks to the south. Good luck in those marshes Comrades!

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, and that gap is in Poland and Lithuania, hundreds of clicks to the south. Good luck in those marshes Comrades!

Azor...but wait you must give Putin a super A for at least an effort....the inertia of non linear warfare is interesting...appears that once Russia started it formerly in their military annexation of Crimea they cannot seem to either stop it or slow it down....appears to have taken on a life of it's own these days and Russia attempts to implement it everywhere.....a sort of throw the mud on the wall and let's see if it sticks.....

[davidbfpo]

A small number of recent posts in the Ukraine at War 2017 thread referring to the Baltic states and Poland have been moved here just.:)

[OUTLAW 09]

Malofeev, #Russian orthodox billionaire, in 2014, bankrolled #Crimea annexation & Eastern #Ukraine campaign.
https://twitter.com/VeikoSpolitis/status/817753048089030656#

[OUTLAW 09]

NOW it starts AGAIN........

'Russian Dawn' Leader: Ethnic Russians in Latvia Live Under 'Apartheid'
http://www.polygraph.info/a/28298687.html

[OUTLAW 09]

OSW Warsaw ThinkTank @OSW_eng
Kaliningrad’s significance for Russia and its special
characteristics.
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/raport-osw/2016-12-23/kaliningrad-oblast-2016-society-economy-and-army#

[OUTLAW 09]

Sudden test of readiness of military forces along Russia's Nordic/Baltic borders. Readiness for what?

Russian battle readiness check will last 1,5 months! Troops from Buryatiya also taking part (Eastern Mil Distrct)

In addition to Air Force battle readiness check, now it's all units of Western Russia. From Finland to Ukraine and Poland

NOTE: Had this been happening in say 1986....NATO would be upping the alert status as this is a solid indicator of pre war Russian maneuver buildup....

Russian Western Military district on sudden battle readiness check

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Cruise Missile, Deployed Secretly, Violates Treaty

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/world/europe/russia-cruise-missile-arms-control-treaty.html?referer=https://t.co/l4Af7io7i6#
…

[Azor]

Russian Cruise Missile, Deployed Secretly, Violates Treaty

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/world/europe/russia-cruise-missile-arms-control-treaty.html?referer=https://t.co/l4Af7io7i6#
…

Here is a good article from GlobalSecurity on the subject: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/ssc-8.htm


Development of a new missile might be an effort to ensure nuclear parity with China, which is not a signatory to the treaty and within range of such weapons.

Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, the private research organization, said “There are some in Russia’s defense establishment who are itching to find ways to either get around or break out of the INF treaty so that Russia can counter these other kinds of short and medium-range ballistic missile opponents.”

[OUTLAW 09]

Sudden test of readiness of military forces along Russia's Nordic/Baltic borders. Readiness for what?

Russian battle readiness check will last 1,5 months! Troops from Buryatiya also taking part (Eastern Mil Distrct)

In addition to Air Force battle readiness check, now it's all units of Western Russia. From Finland to Ukraine and Poland

NOTE: Had this been happening in say 1986....NATO would be upping the alert status as this is a solid indicator of pre war Russian maneuver buildup....

Russian Western Military district on sudden battle readiness check

Splendid #Russia army is concentrating attack ready combat troops 80km from #Finland border, 110km from my home.

APPEARS that a single Russian BN has been moved far closer that 70kms from the Finnish border...

[Azor]

A small number of recent posts in the Ukraine at War 2017 thread referring to the Baltic states and Poland have been moved here just.:)

Reversion to the mean? ;)

Expect the standard deviation of the Ukraine thread to remain high :)

[OUTLAW 09]

New report from Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Agency — an expansive overview of Russian threats, policy, influence:
https://www.teabeamet.ee/pdf/EIB_public_report_Feb_2017.pdf#

[OUTLAW 09]

RAND Corporation
✔
@RANDCorporation
What forms might Russian hybrid warfare in the Baltic states take? Here's our new study:
http://r.rand.org/3o5e

[OUTLAW 09]

US/NATO watching Kaliningrad like a hawk...a lot of airborne recce and ELINT for some strange reason.

RTB RAF Mildenhall...
USAF RC135W 62-4138 FUJI57

North / South of #Kaliningrad
USAF RC135W Rivet Joint
Swedish AF GLF4
NATO E3 Sentry AWACS

South of #Kaliningrad

[OUTLAW 09]

EU Mythbusters
✔
@EUvsDisinfo
Pro-Kremlin disinformation accuses the Baltic States of endangering global peace. Read #DisinfoReview:
http://eepurl.com/cDCP_P

[OUTLAW 09]

There is one way to shut down Russian info war propaganda inside your country...just shut down their broadcasters...in this case Sputnik.....

Baltic news agencies unexpectedly cease co-operation with Sputnik
https://www.rt.com/news/379115-baltic-news-agencies-sputnik/#.WLp6wpwaLkw.twitter#

[OUTLAW 09]

Patrolling over the Baltic Sea, west of #Kaliningrad
Swedish Air Force
GLF4 102002 SVF622

So we have 2xRC-135 (UK+US) and #Swedish GLF-4 covering #Kaliningrad once again. Very tight surveillance continues. What's up?

Unusual to see two RC-135 RJs on the same patrol....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian missile threats against NATO and Baltics.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Moscow Outlet Describes How Russia Should Break Up Each of the Baltic Countries

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2017/03/moscow-outlet-describes-how-russia.html?spref=tw#

[OUTLAW 09]

MORE NATO/US recce resources again out over the Baltic....

Heading out to the Baltics from RAF Waddington...
Royal Air Force - Rivet Joint
#RC135W ZZ664 RRR7289

Tracking west of #Kaliningrad
RAF #RC135W ZZ664 RRR7289

Heading back over the North Sea
RAF RC135W ZZ664 RRR7289

Was being escorted by .......

Patrolling over the Baltic Sea, west of #Kaliningrad
Swedish Air Force
GLF4 102002 SVF622

Airborne from RAF Waddington
Royal Air Force
E3 Sentry AWACS
ZH103 NATO34
Circled over Poland......

[OUTLAW 09]

Court to force Gazprom to pay the 36 million euros it owes Lithuania
http://uawire.org/news/lithuania-is-going-to-exact-36-million-euros-from-gazprom#

[OUTLAW 09]

NATO will demand explanations from Russia about Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad
http://uawire.org/news/spiegel-nato-will-demand-explanations-from-moscow-about-iskanders-in-kaliningrad#

[OUTLAW 09]

Pure hate speech. Baltic States "conduct ethnocide against Russian people" claims propoganda site
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/moscow-outlet-describes-how-russia.html?m=1#

[OUTLAW 09]

Warming up for Zapad 2017: "Kaliningrad: From boomtown to battle-station":

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_kaliningrad_from_boomtown_to_battle_sta tion_7256#

[OUTLAW 09]

Planned Russian military exercises near Baltics at same time as Sweden drills sow NATO worries over miscalculations
https://www.wsj.com/articles/planned-russian-exercises-in-september-sow-nato-worries-1490715830#

[OUTLAW 09]

"Russia drops its mask when it comes to Kaliningrad". Vital read on the military build-up by @sergeysukhankin
http://buff.ly/2mIfAVf

[OUTLAW 09]

US/UK recce air assets heading out towards the Baltic again today....

Airborne from RAF Mildenhall
USAF RC135W 62-4138 ASSAY66
Rivet Joint...

Had been airborne yesterday in the Baltics....
Heading out to the Baltics from RAF Lossiemouth
US Navy
P-8A Poseidon
168440 TALON77

Also from yesterday
8hrs later...headed to RTB Mildenhall
USAF RC135W 62-4138 FROTH56

Orbiting over the Scottish border
RAF E3 ZH103 NATO30

WAS apparently hunting snipe?????

Orbiting over The Netherlands
NATO E3 Sentry AWACS
LX-N90459 NATO10

[OUTLAW 09]

We need some humor today.....

The green car & the yellow car had a race... AND blue went nowhere in a hurry :D

[OUTLAW 09]

US/NATO watching Kaliningrad like a hawk...a lot of airborne recce and ELINT for some strange reason.

RTB RAF Mildenhall...
USAF RC135W 62-4138 FUJI57

North / South of #Kaliningrad
USAF RC135W Rivet Joint
Swedish AF GLF4
NATO E3 Sentry AWACS

South of #Kaliningrad

I find it interesting that SUDDENLY this is now being "seen" by MSM and others.....this above was posted FOUR weeks ago....

Strat 2 Intel‏#
@Strat2Intel
#Kaliningrad SIGINT coverage has tripled, with Rivet Joint, Airseeker, and GS GIV SPs currently all in operation around the enclave.

Risen from 2 to 3 #SIGINT birds. P-8 Poseidon's also frequent around the enclave.


Answers to Senate why US Intel Community missed Russia election connection:
-focus on ISIS/terror
-less likely to believe "open source" info

Fmr FBI agent Watts: We missed Russian intervention because they were happening in open source, and intel community obsessed w/secret info

NOTE: I have been saying for years...80% of all intel comes from OSINT...

[OUTLAW 09]

Military exercises in Kaliningrad, this is what it looks like
https://www.newkaliningrad.ru/news/incidents/13059915-voennye-v-gorode-ucheniya-po-vsemu-kaliningradu-foto.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

US/NATO recce assets on the move again..virtually everyday now for over four long weeks....

Airborne from RAF Mildenhall
US Air Force
KC135 57-2605 QID571

French Air Force Open Skies Herc tracking over Poland...
French Air Force
Hercules C130
5152 OSY19T

Tracking over Russia
French Air Force
Hercules C130
5152 OSY19F

Somewhere out there @ 32,000ft...
US Air Force - Combat Sent
RC135U 64-14847 BONA04

Tracking over Scotland
German Navy
P3 Orion 60+06 MANTIS51

Tracking over Ireland heading towards Germany
US Air Force
Open Skies observation plane
OC-135B 61-2670 OSY12T

Descending for Ramstein Air Base #Germany
USAF OC-135B 61-2670 OSY12T

[OUTLAW 09]

US/NATO recce assets on the move again..virtually everyday now for over four long weeks....

Airborne from RAF Mildenhall
US Air Force
KC135 57-2605 QID571

French Air Force Open Skies Herc tracking over Poland...
French Air Force
Hercules C130
5152 OSY19T

Tracking over Russia
French Air Force
Hercules C130
5152 OSY19F

Somewhere out there @ 32,000ft...
US Air Force - Combat Sent
RC135U 64-14847 BONA04

Tracking over Scotland
German Navy
P3 Orion 60+06 MANTIS51

Tracking over Ireland heading towards Germany
US Air Force
Open Skies observation plane
OC-135B 61-2670 OSY12T

Descending for Ramstein Air Base #Germany
USAF OC-135B 61-2670 OSY12T

Hidden features that FR24 did not want you to know about.......

New FR24 Android app - how to show BLOCKED & Mil a/c. Deselect gliders, tap on it 26 times rapidly. Turn on to view them... BOOM!

User followed this and suddenly discovered a circling UAV overhead....

[OUTLAW 09]

Lithuanian intelligence services warn of "provocations" during joint Russian-Belarusian war games in September.
http://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_intelligence_warns_over_provocations_du ring_russia-betarus_war_games/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Lithuanian intel service: Russia now has capability to launch attack on Baltic region w 24 hour notice
http://reut.rs/2oPXj4Z#

[OUTLAW 09]

Lithuania report: #Russia is suppressing radio frequencies used by #NATO pilots over the #Baltic Sea
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/lithuania-says-russia-has-ability-to-launch-baltic-attack-in-24-hours#

On the picture #Russian army latest top secret EW station 1РЛ257 Красуха-4 spotted in #Donetsk in 2014

As of December 2013 ONLY **TEN** 1РЛ257 "Красуха-4" ever was manufactured. It was meant for support to strategic air force.

1РЛ257 "Красуха-4" is meant to be deployed in strategically important advance regions to heavy air reconnaissance areas.

1РЛ257 "Красуха-4" is still considered highly classified equipment. It's exact deployment in army units is classified. Radius - over 300 km.

[Azor]

Lithuania report: #Russia is suppressing radio frequencies used by #NATO pilots over the #Baltic Sea
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/lithuania-says-russia-has-ability-to-launch-baltic-attack-in-24-hours#

On the picture #Russian army latest top secret EW station 1РЛ257 Красуха-4 spotted in #Donetsk in 2014

As of December 2013 ONLY **TEN** 1РЛ257 "Красуха-4" ever was manufactured. It was meant for support to strategic air force.

1РЛ257 "Красуха-4" is meant to be deployed in strategically important advance regions to heavy air reconnaissance areas.

1РЛ257 "Красуха-4" is still considered highly classified equipment. It's exact deployment in army units is classified. Radius - over 300 km.

Yet another Russian "super-weapon" that completely outmatches NATO!

Yawn! We're supposed to believe that the Krasukha can jam American combat aircraft, but we're supposed to ignore the field day that NATO will have examining its mechanics?

[OUTLAW 09]

TASS‏
Verified account
#Russia’s Northern Fleet launches large-scale combat readiness drills
http://tass.com/defense/940508

Threat focused against Scandinavian countries...

[OUTLAW 09]

MIL.RU: Baltic Fleet ships have carried out search and destroy submarines imaginary enemy
http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12117987@egNews#…

RuAF VHF traffic in Baltic Sea consistent with Su27 QRA fighter

Ru strategic AF sw net up with voice traffic and W marker - Tu95 or 160 active?

[OUTLAW 09]

Huge Russian torpedo found on beach in Lithuania

http://defence-blog.com/news/huge-russian-torpedo-found-on-beach-in-lithuania.html#

Swedish torpedo-guys are looking at it in this thread. No ID, but possibly torpedo-carried mine yet
https://twitter.com/corporalfrisk/status/851690729193844736#

[OUTLAW 09]

After a break in US/NATO/UK recce operations in the Baltic...they are back at it today...

RAF RC-135W ZZ665 RFR7103 departed Waddington - AAR with QID71 then Baltic mission

USAF RC-135U 64-14847 KOJAK61 departed Mildenhall at 0607z - Baltic mission

[OUTLAW 09]

Latitude 67N SIGINT @Sigint67n
RuAF VHF traffic in Baltic Sea consistent with Su27 QRA fighter

Probably checking US/UK recce flights....

[OUTLAW 09]

Of interest:

Russian Navy frigates Boykiy, Soobrazitelniy tanker Kola & tug SB-123 deploying from Baltic to North Atlantic for exercises

TASS: Submarine "Krasnodar" has carried out a cruise missile launch to the target in the Baltic Sea
http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/4166603#…

Russian Navy says it will sail Typhoon submarine to the Baltic Sea this summer

[OUTLAW 09]

Huge Russian torpedo found on beach in Lithuania

http://defence-blog.com/news/huge-russian-torpedo-found-on-beach-in-lithuania.html#

Swedish torpedo-guys are looking at it in this thread. No ID, but possibly torpedo-carried mine yet
https://twitter.com/corporalfrisk/status/851690729193844736#

ID'd as Russian torpedo mine.

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING:
GRU agent captured by Estonian intelligence KAPO:

[OUTLAW 09]

The Abilities of the British, French, and German Armies to Generate and Sustain Armored Brigades in the Baltics
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1629.html#

[Azor]

The Abilities of the British, French, and German Armies to Generate and Sustain Armored Brigades in the Baltics
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1629.html#

This reminds me of RAND's other depressing report on NATO ground force capabilities in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltics: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf

My concerns with these RAND reports are threefold:

Firstly, NATO forces operate as joint forces, yet there is no discussion of the airpower and seapower that NATO can bring to bear in support of the Baltic republics, including from assets that are not in-theater (e.g. U.S. strategic bombers, NATO SSNs, U.S. SSGNs).

Secondly, I have the feeling that RAND is shilling for the U.S. Army and now for the British, French and German armies. With the waning deployment of ground forces to the Middle East, the uptick in Afghanistan notwithstanding, these institutions are faced with a lack of mission and reprisals from other services whose budgets were cut to the bone from 2001 on.

Thirdly, RAND is perpetuating a notion that NATO's doctrine is static defense, when in fact, NATO has always assumed that it would defend in depth and counterattack.

For instance, the temporary loss of Narva or the Suwalki Gap is considered unthinkable today, but even during the waning days of the Cold War, it was always assumed that the Warsaw Pact forces could seize West Berlin and drive deep into West Germany.

In conclusion, these reports must be taken as sensationalism and fear-mongering in order to grab the attention of the relevant politicians and ensure that there is adequate defense expenditure. Quietly whispering that some incremental improvements are required will not do much: a very squeaky wheel is needed to get a portion of the ask...

[OUTLAW 09]

This reminds me of RAND's other depressing report on NATO ground force capabilities in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltics: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf

My concerns with these RAND reports are threefold:

Firstly, NATO forces operate as joint forces, yet there is no discussion of the airpower and seapower that NATO can bring to bear in support of the Baltic republics, including from assets that are not in-theater (e.g. U.S. strategic bombers, NATO SSNs, U.S. SSGNs).

Secondly, I have the feeling that RAND is shilling for the U.S. Army and now for the British, French and German armies. With the waning deployment of ground forces to the Middle East, the uptick in Afghanistan notwithstanding, these institutions are faced with a lack of mission and reprisals from other services whose budgets were cut to the bone from 2001 on.

Thirdly, RAND is perpetuating a notion that NATO's doctrine is static defense, when in fact, NATO has always assumed that it would defend in depth and counterattack.

For instance, the temporary loss of Narva or the Suwalki Gap is considered unthinkable today, but even during the waning days of the Cold War, it was always assumed that the Warsaw Pact forces could seize West Berlin and drive deep into West Germany.

In conclusion, these reports must be taken as sensationalism and fear-mongering in order to grab the attention of the relevant politicians and ensure that there is adequate defense expenditure. Quietly whispering that some incremental improvements are required will not do much: a very squeaky wheel is needed to get a portion of the ask...

Actually well thought out answer....yes RAND has gone the extra mile in their releases....the question is for whom....as they live and die from DoD contracts.....

While Trump praised himself when the NATO Sec arrived in DC for pushing NATO to spend more...what a farce of a public statement but lapped up by his voters......those decisions were made long before Trump arrived in the WH due to Putin's aggressive actions towards the Baltics/Scandinavia...in Crimea and eastern Ukraine....

YES NATO doctrine has always been defense in depth and then counterattack when the attack stalls out....as it is far easier to defend than to go immediately into offensive operations where the wide open spaces of Russia shallows up anything...

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia exports neo-nazis from St. Petersburg to #Estonia in order to frame the country as "fascist".
https://www.kapo.ee/en/content/annual-reviews.html#

Same exact drill in eastern Ukraine before the Russian invasion to support their fellow Russian speaking brothers....

[OUTLAW 09]

MI6 first alerted the FBI/CIA of Trump RU ingtelligence contacts, but it was Estonia that triggered FISA order
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/british-spies-first-to-spot-trump-team-links-russia#

[OUTLAW 09]

Easter eggs in Estonia

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Su-24 Fencer Aircraft (Closely Watched By Swedish JAS39 Gripens) Buzz Dutch Navy Frigate In The Baltic
https://wp.me/p2TYIs-b0r

[OUTLAW 09]

Retaliation for non-engagement in #NordStream2? Russia railway monopoly refuses most requests 2take cargo to Latvia
http://reut.rs/2qTcbBH

[OUTLAW 09]

Estonia declared persona non grata Russia's Consul General in Narva Dmitry Kasennov & Consul Sergei Surgaev & expelled them from the country

Caught spying....

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "lurker" for this interview of a Riga, Estonia based SME on hybrid warfare, Russia and more. It starts with:
The West has to understand the way of Russian military thinking in order to be able to respond to the Kremlin’s moves. Russia is unlikely to invade the Baltic states, however, it will be worth it to pay attention to Belarus this year. Although “hybrid warfare” is the most commonly used term for referring to Russian activities in Ukraine, there is no agreed definition of the terms related to it. In your recent study, you stated that “hybrid is wrong” and New Generation Warfare should be used instead. What is your argumentation?Link:http://visegradinsight.eu/new-generation-warfare/

[Azor]

Thanks to a "lurker" for this interview of a Riga, Estonia based SME on hybrid warfare, Russia and more. It starts with:Link:http://visegradinsight.eu/new-generation-warfare/

Quoting Janis Berzins:


We should pay attention to this idea. Russia’s strategy is very Clausewitzian with some influence from Sun Tzu. It’s about achieving strategic political objectives using the minimum effort. Therefore, warfare is more than a simply armed conflict, it’s rather the combination of military and non-military means, the result of which is that for each specific tactical objectives and war theater a different strategy is needed. For example, the tactical base for Ukraine is Low-Intensity Conflict, while in Georgia it was more like conventional linear tactics.

This is crucial to understand. Russia's focus on minimizing both risk (i.e. escalation) and effort makes it vulnerable to escalation dominance.

Russia's military incursions into Chechnya in 1999, Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 all indicate a very strong aversion to insurgency and guerrilla warfare. In each case, Russia depended heavily upon local auxiliaries, and the lack of integration of Donbas - as opposed to Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea - reflects minority pro-Russian popular sentiments, even if the local population is ambivalent or opposed to Kiev's central authority.

In addition, Russia appears to be very averse to a shooting war with NATO; hence, the nuclear threats and conventional posturing.


This sort of information warfare can only work if the seeds for its success are already there. For example, to what extent were the alleged Russian operations aimed to influence the American people and help Trump win the election really decisive? I’m convinced that with or without the Russian operations Trump would have won the election. Was Brexit the result of Russian operations? Of course not. In fact, both are the results of common people being tired of politicians and civil servants making policies which benefit either the financial system or the very rich, hoping that the result will be greater employment or wages.

The "seeds" only really exist to a small extent in the Baltics and a much larger extent in Belarus and northern Kazakhstan.

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING Russian ambassador to Lithuania said they have all rights to ask back $72bn put in during Soviet period.

[Azor]

BREAKING Russian ambassador to Lithuania said they have all rights to ask back $72bn put in during Soviet period.

This couldn't have anything to do with BALTOPS? No, probably not...

[OUTLAW 09]

This couldn't have anything to do with BALTOPS? No, probably not...

Actually this is a great example of Russian altered state of reality after demanding 18B plus from Ukraine for gas and then losing their court case to the tune of 35B.

Actually Germany could then claim using this Russian model the total of 41B Euros used over 25 years to clean up environmentally damaged Soviet bases and Soviet training areas that are just about finished that the Russians just walked, drove away from in 1994...this goes for the other Eastern and Central European countries that housed Soviet troops....there are stretches of the Baltic Sea front that cannot be used due to massive amounts of Russian UXOs that no EOD clean up company anywhere in Europe wants to touch....

In one fuel depot..instead of shipping the 40K liters of diesel back to SU they either sold it on the GDR black market or opened the valves a let it drain into the drainage systems damaging underground water reserves for years....

[Azor]

From Cody Zilhaver at The Strategy Bridge: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2017/6/16/russians-in-estonia-a-case-study-in-offensive-structural-realism

Introduction:


Russia’s power politics, demonstrated through its nationalistic tendencies, have the biggest influence on Estonia’s national security. Russia maintains a capability to influence a quarter of Estonia’s population who speak Russian, most of whom are disenfranchised by the government and are highly susceptible to Russian coercion through modern mainstream media emanating from Moscow. Due to these circumstances, Russia is in a position to cultivate Russian nationalism and influence Russian speakers in Estonia, who can elect leaders that will return Estonia back to Russia’s sphere of influence and undermine the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance. An alternative view is that Estonia’s NATO membership provides enough security to dissuade Russia from exerting its influence in Estonia. In rebuttal, I offer that Russia’s potential to leverage Estonia’s democratic process to enact laws and policies sympathetic to Russia, renders Estonia’s membership in NATO irrelevant and incapable of mitigating this threat.

Highlights:


Estonia highly vulnerable to Russian dominance due to its proximity to Russia, its history as a former Russian/Soviet subject and its large Russophone minority that includes a large marginalized component.

Russia’s behavior in Georgia and Ukraine is exemplar of “structural offensive realism as described by Mearsheimer: “it makes good strategic sense for states to gain as much power as possible”.

Russia believes that consolidation of power is necessary to protect its territories from a surprise attack such as in 1941.

NATO competes directly with Russia for security through a structural realist system, described by Posen as the “anarchical condition of international politics”.

As Jervis explains, “a security dilemma exists when a state tries to increase its security by decreasing the security of others”.

Estonia is caught in the security struggle between Russia and NATO.

Russophones comprise 25% of the Estonian population, although 2/3 of these don’t speak Estonian. Only 1/3 have Estonian citizenship and speak Estonian, with the 2/3 divided between half who are citizens of Russia but not Estonia, and half who are stateless. These latter two groups are very open to influence by Russia and are able to participate to some extent in Estonia's democratic institutions.

Although NATO protects Estonia from the Russian military, Estonia is very susceptible to non-military measures such as using legitimate democratic political processes to advance Russian interests.

[Azor]

Actually this is a great example of Russian altered state of reality after demanding 18B plus from Ukraine for gas and then losing their court case to the tune of 35B.

Actually Germany could then claim using this Russian model the total of 41B Euros used over 25 years to clean up environmentally damaged Soviet bases and Soviet training areas that are just about finished that the Russians just walked, drove away from in 1994...this goes for the other Eastern and Central European countries that housed Soviet troops....there are stretches of the Baltic Sea front that cannot be used due to massive amounts of Russian UXOs that no EOD clean up company anywhere in Europe wants to touch....

In one fuel depot...instead of shipping the 40K liters of diesel back to SU they either sold it on the GDR black market or opened the valves a let it drain into the drainage systems damaging underground water reserves for years....

Firstly, Russia can simply play hardball, as it has before. One does not merely take a gangster to civil court.

Secondly, Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary suffered likewise as members of the Warsaw Pact, as well as the various member states of the Soviet Union, such as the suffering inflicted by nuclear tests in Kazakhstan.

Thirdly, I recall that the Northern Group of Forces reneged on various agreements with the People's Republic of Poland in terms of paying for the use of utilities, discipline of drunk and disorderly soldiers, etc.

I would imagine that Germany will pursue land claims in Poland with greater vigor ;)

[Azor]

From the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/baltic-standoff-highlights-cold-war-lite-russia-nato/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 88
By: Pavel Felgenhauer
June 29, 2017 04:26 PM Age: 13 mins

Introduction:


The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has completed its plan, announced last year (July 9, 2016) at the Alliance’s Warsaw Summit, to deploy four multinational battalions to Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania as a counter to the apparent Russian threat on its eastern flank, in the Baltic region. Speaking from Brussels a week ago (June 20), NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced, “NATO has fulfilled its promise to deploy the four battalions to defend our Alliance, deter aggression and keep the peace. The deployment is now complete, and they are fully operational.” A day earlier, the last allied combat contingent—from Canada—arrived in Latvia. Overall more than 4,000 soldiers from 15 countries—Canada, Albania, the United States, Spain, Italy, Poland, Slovenia, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, Norway, the United Kingdom, Denmark, France and Romania—have been deployed (Militarynews.ru, June 20).


Stoltenberg exaggeratingly refers to these multinational battalions as “NATO battlegroups”
The U.S. has increased its combat presence in Europe from two brigades to three
The increase in forces remains at the level of a tripwire and the multinational aspect is a handicap operationally, but it signals to Moscow that an attack on the Baltics would start a war with most, if not all NATO members
Moscow is also increasing its capabilities by creating 20 new military units in the WMD and 40 new bases
The WMD has more than 30 ready Battalion Tactical Groups, and readiness has increased 2.5X since 2016
The Russian military is deliberately exaggerating the threat from NATO in order to increase its funding and social status, but this is causing a costly standoff
European countries are increasing their defense spending and readiness, but the Russian military-industrial-intelligence complex seems to desire this contest
The Russian people, however, do not fear NATO as a threat so much as the U.S., and because of Russian propaganda about Russia’s military prowess, they believe that they are secure (whereas in 2015, more than 2/3 feared an imminent foreign invasion)
The Kremlin will struggle to bridge the gap between public perceptions of the threat and its own alarmist rhetoric

[mirhond]

Meanwhile in Latvia

http://g2.delphi.lv/images/pix/520x315/R0Ja_fLhwSc/mulsinosie-dekori-saldu-saldus-ugunskrusts-49542457.jpg

http://www.delfi.lv/aculiecinieks/news/sabiedriba/saldeniekus-satrauc-tresa-reiha-simbols-pasvaldiba-mierina-tas-ir-ugunskrusts.d?id=49528155

[davidbfpo]

This picture does not appear to be on a public building, however distasteful and the cited source / report starts with:
During the festivities, Saldū was decorated with a building, which caused confusion among the inhabitants. The council, on the other hand, is comforting - the rules are not violated, because the creepy dcor is a fire-rushing, not a swastika sign.....this year the owner of the ornament decided to give preference to the ancient Latvian folklore sign of fire - ugunskrustam," explains Dina Neimeta, a social and international relations specialist of the Saldus District Council.

For more images of thehttps://ztzks.wordpress.com/perkona-zime/ symbol:
Strange to some I agree, I have no doubt there will be offensive displayed symbols elsewhere.

[AdamG]

Sweden is among the world’s safest, richest and best-run countries enjoying steady growth and rising employment. But it has been experiencing an unprecedented surge of gang shootings, bombings and sexual assaults.


In a country of 10m people, more than 320 shootings and dozens of bombings were reported in 2017, along with more than 110 murders and 7,226 rapes — a 10% increase on 2016. More than 36% of young Swedish women say they feel unsafe at night.
The authorities have admitted they are unable to investigate rape cases immediately because the resources are focused on gang crime. “We are forced to choose between two evils,” the police said.
The crime surge is mainly confined to so-called “areas of social exclusion”, a code for neighbourhoods such as Rosengard that are predominantly populated by immigrants. They are not classic ghettos — the infrastructure and services are better than in areas of central London — but these communities are plagued by high crime rates and unemployment.


In Malmo, where a fifth of the 340,000 inhabitants are under 18, children as young as 14 roam the streets with Kalashnikov assault rifles and bulletproof vests. The average age of gang members is 22, the vast majority of them hailing from migrant families.


Sweden has pursued a liberal immigration policy for more than a generation; its government speaks of being a “humanitarian superpower” for having taken in a large number of asylum seekers. After the migrant crisis of 2015, when more than 160,000 people sought asylum, the policy was abruptly changed. Yet there is little debate or reliable data about the integration of the 12% of the population that derive from non-western countries.
For a long time the Swedish establishment played down the decay of immigrant-dominated suburbs, but it can no longer ignore the explosion of violence.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/teens-roam-streets-with-rifles-as-crime-swamps-sweden-q83g055k9