Syria in 2017 (April-December)

[OUTLAW 09]

We have inside 24 hours gone from Trump declaring this Washington Post article "fake news"

TO "I have the right to do it".......

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account

@realDonaldTrump
As President I wanted to share with Russia (at an openly scheduled W.H. meeting) which I have the absolute right to do, facts pertaining....to terrorism and airline flight safety. Humanitarian reasons, plus I want Russia to greatly step up their fight against ISIS & terrorism.

BUT WAIT...this is not the typical Trump tweeting style....someone wrote it for him....

BUT Trump does not have the right to openly and completely violate US National Security and to ignore Federal Security Regulations and Laws.....

OR to risk the life of an undercover field agent working for an allied security service....JUST to impress someone......

ANYONE who fully understands the Russian role in supporting Assad, PKK, IS and Iran knows if they could identify the undercover agent they would kill him....

SINCE WHEN has the WH Oval Office become a SCIF for Russian visitors to get US intel updates

Gen. McMaster, Monday night: "It didn't happen."
President Trump, Tuesday morning: Yes it did.

"That person is likely dead." - @JulietteKayyem on CNN about source who infiltrated ISIS who the President (THE PRESIDENT) just compromised

And one senior Nato diplomat quoted by Reuters said: "If true, this is not going to instill confidence in allies already wary of sharing the most sensitive information."

The upcoming NATO meeting will be about weather and restaurant tips as long as Trump is there.

[OUTLAW 09]

We have inside 24 hours gone from Trump declaring this Washington Post article "fake news"

TO "I have the right to do it".......

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account

@realDonaldTrump
As President I wanted to share with Russia (at an openly scheduled W.H. meeting) which I have the absolute right to do, facts pertaining....to terrorism and airline flight safety. Humanitarian reasons, plus I want Russia to greatly step up their fight against ISIS & terrorism.

BUT WAIT...this is not the typical Trump tweeting style....someone wrote it for him....

BUT Trump does not have the right to openly and completely violate US National Security and to ignore Federal Security Regulations and Laws.....

OR to risk the life of an undercover field agent working for an allied security service....JUST to impress someone......

ANYONE who fully understands the Russian role in supporting Assad, PKK, IS and Iran knows if they could identify the undercover agent they would kill him....

SINCE WHEN has the WH Oval Office become a SCIF for Russian visitors to get US intel updates

Gen. McMaster, Monday night: "It didn't happen."
President Trump, Tuesday morning: Yes it did.

"That person is likely dead." - @JulietteKayyem on CNN about source who infiltrated ISIS who the President (THE PRESIDENT) just compromised

And one senior Nato diplomat quoted by Reuters said: "If true, this is not going to instill confidence in allies already wary of sharing the most sensitive information."

The upcoming NATO meeting will be all about the weather and where are the best places to eat and what tour one will take...ISIS what the heck is that...Syria not sure where that is exactly....Putin who......?

The Latest: Kremlin calls reports that Trump shared classified info "nonsense," Top German lawmaker expresses alarm.
http://apne.ws/2pG3EF3

realDonaldTrump
I have been asking Director Comey & others, from the beginning of my administration, to find the LEAKERS in the intelligence community.....

NOW this has just become a one heck of a major farce....
WH/NSC spokesman Mike Anton emphatically denies that Pres Trump's tweets today confirm disclosure of classified material to Russia.

WaPo reports Trump's team wanted "full transcript" of mtg w Russians ltd to small grp to contain intel leak. Sure sounds like there r tapes

SO who decided within the USG IC that determined this had happened and how did they know about the meeting....

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA Jaysh al-Asha'ir targets Assad's forces amassing in Rusheideh east Suwaida south Syria
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=32.664668&lon=36.839476&z=14&m=b#

More civilians got killed as the number of #AssadPutin air force strikes on the "Homs De-Escalation Zone" surpasses 15 for today.

Homs: #Assad warplanes bombed #Kafr_Laha in Northern #Homs pocket. Several civilians were killed or wounded.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34.891493&lon=36.493063&z=14&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

Updated Control & Influence #Map #Syria 15 May 2017 by #Data Shows % of Gains & Loses in the last 30 Days PDF:
https://goo.gl/oEo4uc

Assad formed an alliance with German neo-Nazi party Der Dritte Weg.
http://www.
jpost.com/Diaspora/German-neo-Nazi-party-builds-alliance-with-Assad-and-Hezbollah-490847#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...here it goes on the Kurds....Trump had claimed that he is the greatest "deal maker" and he would convince Erdogan to support his Raqqa plans....

Well word out of Turkish circles here in Europe is that the US MEANING Trump failed badly in trying to convince the Turks that the US plan to support the PKK would benefit them AND even worse Erdogan did not get assurances that the US would not then turn Raqqa over to Assad...

Photo op w/ # #Trump was the sole goal of #Erdoğan, who wanted to remedy his post-referendum legitimacy deficit. So, the trip was a success.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...notice the YPG/PKK double game they are playing on the US....

Very likely that #SDF/#YPG hand over #Raqqa city & #Tabqa + dam to #Assad forces

[OUTLAW 09]

E. #Ghouta: clashes continue on Beit Nayem & Muhammadiyah fronts amidst Regime shelling with IRAM rockets.

ISIS killed #Iran|ian (#IRGC) commander Ali Rida Qabadi. Front unspecified but likely E. #Homs CS.

E. #Syria: important Regime reinforcements (Rep. Guards etc.) sent to #DeirEzzor through #Qamishli Airport as new push vs #ISIS expected.

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Bunian Marsous op room denounces violation of "de-escalation zone" as Regime tries 2 advance in Manshiyah for 2nd day. Heavy clashes

Most of pro-Assad killed in Jan.-April 2017 (h/t @HomsDocumentary) were from:
- Coast (38%)
- #Hama (17%)
- #Homs (13%)
- #Damascus (11%).

Regime lost 295 officers in January-April 2017: 21 (Brig.) Generals, 32 Colonels, 11 Lt Colonels, 18 Majors & 54 Captains. @HomsDocumentary.

The 3 deadliest provinces for pro-Assad in 2017 are (h/t @HomsDocumentary):
- #Damascus (24%)
- #Aleppo (19%)
- #Hama (16%).
1,141 killed

ISIS took out 2 tanks with #ATGM|s, one N. of #Palmyra Grain Silos where clashes raging since weeks and the 2nd E. of Ithriya (E. #Hama).

Afghan child soldier of #IRGC's Fatemioun brigade, Esmat Shokouhi, killed in Syria, buried today in Qazvin, Iran.

[OUTLAW 09]

AKIpress news agency (from Italia) report 150 #Russia'n soldiers injured during battles in #Syria the past 2,5 months

[Azor]

According to a FSA commander, the Coalition is coordinating with the SDF to prevent pro-Assad forces from advancing toward Deir-ez-Zor. The thinking is that U.S.-led forces will advance along the Euphrates to Deir-ez-Zor and don’t want interference from Damascus, despite the Assad-Daesh conflict over the besieged city.

Source: https://twitter.com/badly_xeroxed (Cody Roche at Bellingcat)

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #ISIS has killed #Assad "Tiger Forces" commander Ali Della in Eastern #Aleppo today. He was a friend of General Suheil al-Hassan.

[davidbfpo]

I have, again, moved posts that do not directly relate to the Syrian civil war to a relevant thread in 'Politics in the rear' arena.

In reply to Outlaw09:
If the SWJ Moderator had not been removing my comments on these events you would have known that FINALLY MSM is picking up what social media has been reporting on for over FIVE months


Moving posts is different from removing, although a very small number have been deleted as being beyond our ToR and some simply do not contribute.

[OUTLAW 09]

I have, again, moved posts that do not directly relate to the Syrian civil war to a relevant thread in 'Politics in the rear' arena.

In reply to Outlaw09:

Moving posts is different from removing, although a very small number have been deleted as being beyond our ToR and some simply do not contribute.

Not meant as a critique...but in this ongoing Russian non linear war...ALL is intertwined...pull on one string three others unravel...ALL is connected Crimea...invasion of eastern Ukraine..Syria....Russian support towards Iran/Assad/IS....infor war and hacking in France/Germany/UK, meddling in European elections AND in the US elections and hacking the US as well..rebuilding Russian military power.....ALL interconnected...and extremely difficult to separate one from the other...

[OUTLAW 09]

Just proves what I mean....

BREAKING: @WSJ: Israeli intelligence source compromised by Trump was the most important the West had inside #ISIS
https://www.wsj.com/articles/israeli-source-seen-as-key-to-countering-islamic-state-threat-1495068912?mod=e2tw#

[OUTLAW 09]

If the US wants to avoid escalation between Ankara and the YPG it needs to work hard on all levels to ensure Turkey's bluff stays a bluff

Turkey is not bluffing if this is correct...Turkey demands the US appointed Envoy to the YPG leave Turkey ASAP....Turkish FM is claiming he and the US openly support PKK/YPG....

FM avuşoğlu speaking live: "When we said we would attack the YPG, we did not get a negative reation [from the Americans]."

Either Erdogan wasn't listening or McMaster and Trump have committed a terrible blunder

[OUTLAW 09]

Brig Gen wounded in IS attack NE of #Salamiya. Amaq now claiming Aqrab & Mabujah taken, fighting in Sabourah. #Syria
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.126227&lon=37.216702&z=13&m=b&search=salamiyah#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor..have been trying to tell you that Europe is not matching to the Trump Syrian drumbeat as they have been already active in Syria...APPEARS Trump did not realize this...PLUS they honestly see "mission creep" on the part of the US...


France and Germany are resisting a plan by U.S. officials for NATO to take a bigger role in the fight against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, in line with calls from President Donald Trump for the alliance to do more to combat terrorism.
Many alliance members hope the plan will be announced in Brussels next Thursday, when Trump attends his first NATO summit. But France and Germany have misgivings, allies involved in the discussions said.
Among the concerns: NATO might be caught up in another costly, Afghan-style deployment, irk some Arab countries or risk confrontation with Russia in Syria.
"They are not buying it," said a senior European NATO diplomat, who said some other nations including Greece and Italy were also wary of the plan.
"They want to know what difference would it make. All 28 NATO allies are already part of this effort," the diplomat said, referring to a 68-nation U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State that includes all NATO members.
French and German officials declined to comment, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel left open the possibility of NATO as an institution joining the coalition when she met NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg last week. Both ruled out any combat role for NATO in Syria and Iraq.
France's new President Emmanuel Macron will have lunch with Trump - who last month withdrew his earlier charge that NATO was 'obsolete' because it was not 'taking care of terror' - before the Brussels meeting next Thursday.
While Islamic State is on the verge of defeat in its Iraqi stronghold of Mosul, and bracing for an assault against its de facto capital in Raqqa, Syria, U.S. officials are concerned fleeing militants could leave a vacuum that could prompt Arab tribal fighters to turn on each other to gain control.
U.S. officials say the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation as an institution could contribute equipment, training and the expertise it gained leading a coalition against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. NATO military chiefs favor the move, said General Petr Pavel, chairman of the alliance's military committee.
Diplomats said this could mean NATO using its surveillance planes over Syria, running command-and-control operations and providing air-to-air refueling.

SYMBOLIC STEP
One compromise would be for NATO as an institution to formally join the coalition at the dinner with Trump next week, but leave the details of any involvement to a later stage.
"If allies can be convinced that it is only a symbolic step, a deal should be possible," said a second NATO diplomat. "Trump goes home with a message that NATO is joining the coalition and NATO doesn't have to do anything extra, at least for now."
Also In Middle East & North Africa
U.N. says 200,000 more people could flee Mosul as fighting intensifies
World Court orders Pakistan to delay execution of alleged Indian spy
A broader hesitancy among European allies stems from the long mission that NATO has undertaken in Afghanistan, taking over the United States' bid to defeat militants in 2003 after the attacks on New York and Washington two years earlier.
Given Russia's concerns over NATO expansion in eastern Europe, and its role in Syria as the key military ally of President Bashar al-Assad, some allies also worry that deeper NATO involvement there could be taken by Moscow as a provocation.
But a stronger role in Iraq and Syria could also address concerns expressed by Mediterranean allies, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal, that NATO lacks a strategy for tackling the root causes of the migrant and refugee crisis.
Stoltenberg has talked about NATO's "untapped potential" in building up armed forces. Options include more NATO training of Iraqi troops and police, as well as strengthening government departments in areas taken back from Islamic State.
"NATO is the only security organization with the skills and breadth to take on this task," wrote Hans Binnendijk and David Gompert in a paper for the U.S. think-tank RAND Corporation.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #ISIS has killed #Assad "Tiger Forces" commander Mohamed Al-Barudi in Eastern #Aleppo yesterday.

[OUTLAW 09]

More on the regime's push against al-Tanf:
https://www.ft.com/content/42aa4308-3941-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23#

Coalition apparently hitting Assad regime near al-Tanf base where US SOF and anti-ISIS rebels located.

Sources say the U.S. airstrike took place about 30mins from the U.S.-UK SOF base in al-Tanf.
If U.S. confirms, this is a *big* deal.

BIG - Opposition sources: U.S. jets *did* conduct an airstrike on a pro-#Assad convoy & FSA’s Maghawir al-Thowra followed up on the ground.

Syria opposition sources claim U.S. or coalition jets struck an #Assad regime convoy on the #Baghdad-#Damascus highway - 1 tank destroyed.

Correction: 4 tanks, 8 technicals with AA guns & 4 picups destroyed (by US airstrikes & TOWs)

Coalition strikes allegedly destroyed Assad army convoy in Zarqa crossroad ~30 km from UK/US backed FSA al-Tanf base on Syria-Jordan borders

Syria: #US airstrikes wiped out #Assad regime convoy north of #Al_Tanf. Dozens of #Assad forces killed. Tanks, Shilkas, trucks destroyed.

[OUTLAW 09]

More on the regime's push against al-Tanf:
https://www.ft.com/content/42aa4308-3941-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23#

Coalition apparently hitting Assad regime near al-Tanf base where US SOF and anti-ISIS rebels located.

Sources say the U.S. airstrike took place about 30mins from the U.S.-UK SOF base in al-Tanf.
If U.S. confirms, this is a *big* deal.

BIG - Opposition sources: U.S. jets *did* conduct an airstrike on a pro-#Assad convoy & FSA’s Maghawir al-Thowra followed up on the ground.

Syria opposition sources claim U.S. or coalition jets struck an #Assad regime convoy on the #Baghdad-#Damascus highway - 1 tank destroyed.

Correction: 4 tanks, 8 technicals with AA guns & 4 picups destroyed (by US airstrikes & TOWs)

Coalition strikes allegedly destroyed Assad army convoy in Zarqa crossroad ~30 km from UK/US backed FSA al-Tanf base on Syria-Jordan borders

Syria: #US airstrikes wiped out #Assad regime convoy north of #Al_Tanf. Dozens of #Assad forces killed. Tanks, Shilkas, trucks destroyed.

So it might be US jets bombed Assad's forces just before Trump arrives in Saudi Arabia. Interesting timing.

Sources say U.S. strikes & FSA follow-up attack (w. TOW missiles) destroyed 4 #Assad regime tanks, several trucks & a ZSU-23-4 “Shilka"

[OUTLAW 09]

As pro-Assad forces is launching offensive in South Syria against US-backed forces. Rus-U.S standoff there is closer
https://syria.liveuamap.com/?zoom=9&ll=33.39934533042092,37.58697509765626#…

[OUTLAW 09]

H Hassan حسن حسن
✔
@hxhassan
The US response to the pro-Iran militias' attacks against the US-backed rebels is an important shift, that Obama officials typically avoided

.@BuzzFeedNews's story with US confirmation and details on its airstrikes on pro-regime forces in S. Syria today
https://www.buzzfeed.com/nancyyoussef/the-us-launched-new-airstrikes-against-pro-assad-forces-in?utm_term=.tlXj9ZOD2#.cga8x2Zo9#

Raises Qs reg (1) US willingness to defend gains in Syria, (2) loyalist willingness to escalate, (3) potential for retribution in Iraq

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian media starting to denounce US Syria strike: tabloid Komsomol Pravda calls it "manifestation of aggression"
http://www.kp.ru/online/news/2749460/#

Trump is also signaling to Iran in advance of his Gulf trip: containment is back.

[OUTLAW 09]

Strikes probably conducted against IRGC-led Iraqi Shia Jihadi militia Kata'ib Imam Ali, which was very active in the area in past days.

Al-Tanf defense is integrally linked to Iran seeking to interdict Baghdad-Damascus highway

It's more important than last month's strike against air base as it's the first time US provides air support to rebels vs regime

[OUTLAW 09]

Iran-backed militias receive coalition air support in Iraq, air raids in Syria

@AFP #SYRIA: US official tells @AFP the convoy did not respond to numerous requests not to get too close to coalition forces at Tanaf

[OUTLAW 09]

Also the coastal Iran backed unit Liwa al-Mukhtar travelled via Homs to Palmyra on the 10th but then went back south to Qalamoun yesterday.

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle Orton
✔
@KyleWOrton
The crunch moment, when #Iran's proxies—whom we empowered to "defeat" #IS—turn on us, is nearly here.
http://bit.ly/2riAsE6


Latest reports about increased U.S. military activities on Jordan’s norther border – coupled with the Trump administration’s ongoing talks with Baghdad about the prospect of keeping American troops in Iraq after the defeat of the Islamic State – have triggered alarm in Tehran. The Iranian media – particularly outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) – have been speculating that the U.S. military buildup along the borders of Syria and Iraq are part of a broader effort by Washington and its allies to counter Iran’s regional ambitions. As a result, the I.R.G.C. and its regional proxies are taking “preemptive” measures to "foil" the U.S. "scheme."
Growing concern
On May 17, the I.R.G.C.-affiliated Fars News Agency warned that the United States and its allies are preparing for a “sensitive war” along the Syrian-Iraqi borders to achieve two key goals: 1) to prevent Iran – and by extension China – from carving a land route to the Mediterranean Sea via Syria and Iraq; and 2) to block Tehran’s “strategic supply lines” crucial to helping the “resistance front” through Syria. Iranian leaders use the term "resistance front" for Tehran's regional armed proxies that fight Israel, the United States and Iran's other perceived enemies in the region.
“When America orders its allies to mobilize and escalates threats in the region, it means that the war in Iraq and Syria is not over,” the I.R.G.C. outlet stressed, adding that the Syrian Army and the Iran-supported Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.] has a long and difficult journey before reaching the shared borders between Syria and Iraq and clear and hold the regions along the way.
It further argued that the latest regional developments are not “coincidental” and point to a calculated plan by Washington and its allies to step up their game in Syria and Iraq at the expense of Iranian interests.
These recent developments, according to F.N.A., includes the U.S. allegations that Damascus is incinerating the corpses of executed prisoners; the Israeli minister’s call for the assassination of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; objections to the Russia-sponsored de-escalation zones in Syria; increased U.S. air strikes in Syria; Syrian opposition groups’ threat to boycott peace talks; and the U.S. military buildup along the border of the Iraqi Kurdistan.
Tabnak News Agency, which is run by former I.R.G.C. commander Mohsen Rezaei, echoed a similar warning. “There are increased activities in southern Syria that indicate preparations for an attack through Jordan and Israel and [with the help of] armed group.”
I.R.G.C.’s countermeasures
To counter the perceived threat from the United States and its regional allies, Iran has mobilized its proxy forces in both Syria and Iraq for two objectives: to seize the control of strategic regions along the Syrian-Iraqi border from the Islamic State and to challenge the presence of American troops and U.S.-backed Syrian and Iraqi groups in the region.
In Syria, according to Fars News Agency., the I.R.G.C. has in recent days deployed more than a 1,000 fighters - mostly from the Lebanese Hezbollah - to two fronts in southern Syria near the border with Jordan. The I.R.G.C. and its allies hope that the deployment of additional forces to Daraa, Homs and Quneitra regions would prevent the “U.S.-backed militants” stationed in al-Tanf border crossing from moving toward Deir Ez-Zor. Fars News Agency also reported this week that the Syrian Army and Iran-backed militia forces will deploy additional forces along the Syrian-Iraqi border and will carry out joint military operations in central parts of Syria – claiming that establishment of Russian-sponsored de-escalation zones in Syria has allowed the Syrian Army and the I.R.G.C.-controlled forces to focus on other strategic regions.
Likewise in Iraq, Iran-backed militia forces have launched a new military offensive – dubbed Muhammad Rasulullah – to seize more territory from the Islamic State in western Mosul and control the land corridor from the strategic city of Tal Afar to the Syrian border. Iran and P.M.F. leaders claim that such a move would help cut off the Islamic State’s supply lines between Syria and Iraq. But some Iraqis and regional Sunni states worry that Iran and its proxies are consolidating their presence to have influence over Iraq and Syria after the Islamic State is defeated.
Access to Mediterranean Sea
As the Fars article suggests, Tehran is also attempting to establish a land corridor for access to the Mediterranean Sea by passing through Syria and Iraq. It did not elaborate on whether Iran and China planned to jointly develop such a land corridor to the Mediterranean Sea for trade purposes as well. But the commentary in the Iranian media makes it clear that the Islamic Republic sees the United States as an obstacle to its plan. On May 16, the Guardian reported that that Iran had changed the course of its planned land corridor to the Mediterranean coast as a result of an increasing U.S. military presence in northeastern Syria. The new route is said to be passing through Mayadin – a town currently occupied by the Islamic State in eastern Syria – instead of Kurdish areas in northeastern Syria where the U.S. military has reportedly been beefing up presence.
Collision course
In the past year, the U.S. military and Iran-backed militia groups have been de facto allies in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq. But now that the common enemy is on the brink of defeat, Tehran and Washington increasingly appear to be on a collision course in both Syria and Iraq.
In the past month, Iran and its proxies have already turned their attention to undermine the U.S. military presence in Iraq and Syria. Iran-controlled Iraqi militia groups have recently dialed up propaganda against the U.S. military by accusing it of aiding the Islamic State and pressuring the Baghdad government to “expel” American troops advising the Iraqi security forces in Mosul and across the country.



Michael Weiss
✔
@michaeldweiss
Reuters says US/UK Special Forces are expanding al-Tanf. Conforms to what @hxhassan and I suggested months ago:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/07/how-to-salvage-syria.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

2 Pakistanis of #IRGC's Zainebiyoun brigade killed in Syria, buried today in Qom, Iran.

It's Assad army and Iran-backed militias who started the offensive against UK/US backed FSA early May to take al-Tanf and Syria-Iraq borders

[OUTLAW 09]

CJTF-OIR has also now claimed that Russia attempted to intercede to stop the advance of the pro-regime convoy's advance.

Unconfirmed reports that as many as 50 killed in @CJTFOIR coalition attack on Syrian regime and Iranian militia near Syrian Jordanian border

[OUTLAW 09]

US says #Russia tried to restrain #Iran-backed militias near al-Tanf, but failed.
Lesson - #Moscow has no leverage over #Iran/#Assad.

This statement highlights the major limitations of Russian influence over Assad. Despite its image, Moscow in many ways a spectator in Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: US coalition strike on #SyrianArmy occurred within an established safe zone
https://sptnkne.ws/eyED#

And right on queue, Sputnik follows with implication that US violated some sort of intl law or agreement, instead of unilateral "safe zone"

[OUTLAW 09]

#Syria: #Iran & #Assad regime are hyping the "huge border battle" against #FSA since weeks

[OUTLAW 09]

Area where Syrian regime struck by US is same region where Russia struck closely US-backed rebels last year. Major signal to Moscow​.

Hours ago, the #IRGC-linked Fars News reported 3,000 #Hezbollah fighters “deployed” to the “al-Tanf region” to thwart “a U.S. plot.”

U.S media needs to *wake up*:
- Multiple U.S. airstrikes just *purposely* took out an #Iran/#Hezbollah/#Assad convoy in SE #Syria.

US has now clearly shown it will *not* allow Assad regime + allies to reach Iraqi border. No hope of establishing land supply corridor.

[OUTLAW 09]

Kurdish PYD making arrangements for governance of Raqqa. Unlikely to sit well with the city's Arab tribes.

pyd rojava‏#
@PYD_Rojava
Folgen
After the establishment of Raqqa Civilian Council, today the first security forces (male and female) for #Raqqa were announced .

[OUTLAW 09]

For the doubters #SyAAF Mig-29SM armed with the R-77 AA missile.

[OUTLAW 09]

Exclusive: the #SAA will proceed advancing towards #AlTanaf but from another flank, the troops will be escorted by #SyAAF in a 24/7 shift.

[OUTLAW 09]

Truly Russian Fake News...those hit were Iranian supported Iraqi Shia militia....and Assad forces....

Breaking #FakeNews
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov says that the U.S. strike had hit #civilians & was unacceptable.

Do not know many civilians driving tanks these days...BUT WAIT Putin did state in 2014 it was civilians taking a vacation inside eastern Ukraine and they drove their tanks there as well....

[OUTLAW 09]

The head of the Duma "committee on international affairs" also claims the forces attacked by the #US were "fighting ISIS and Nusra".
Yep.

US Defense official says targeted forces were not #Syrian direct, but pro-regime Shia militia

Breaking
#Russia says the #US attack on pro-Assad forces near #Tanf is "another provocation which began with the attacks in Idlib & Homs".


Meanwhile in #Syria's "De-Escalation Zones" (this time for real), the #AssadPutin army kept shelling towns and agricultural lands.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian military blog: Russian forces operating in Syrian desert get green vehicles, resort to SAA-style mud camo.
http://xn--b1aga5aadd.xn--p1ai/2017/259473/военное.рф/2017/259473/

[OUTLAW 09]

The forces near al-Tanf are not even remotely Salafist. @MaxBlumenthal is a Kremlin-paid Islamophobe.

In fact, the FSA forces there are Democrats. The Iranian militias targeted are the highly sectarian jihadists

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian FSA Humor is getting a tad sharper these days.....

Breaking: Ibna Abu Ivanka al-Amreki Brigade takes credit for air strike and TOW strikes on regime convoy in S. Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

Turkeys Defense Minister Fikri Işık says on AlJazeera TV that #US indirectly supports terror against his country.

Damascus: #Assad forces have arrested 600 men and 500 women in #Qaboun District in Eastern #Damascus.

S. #Syria: vehicles used by #Iraq|i militia Kataib Sid Al-Shuhada struck while heading towards Al-Tanf. Casualties acknowledged.

S. #Syria: #Iraq|i militia Kataib Sid Al-Shuhada reports it was among the pro-Assad targeted yesterday by #US-led Coalition N. of al-Tanf.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: #Assad forces shelling fields in Northern #Hama with artillery and destroying the crop today.



H Hassan حسن حسن
✔
@hxhassan
DoD-backed Maghawir al-Thawra just confirmed to me no reversal yet to the request to relocate from al-Tanf.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/18/world/us-syria-airstrikes/index.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Al-Qaeda’s Turning Against its Syrian Affiliate
By Charles Lister
http://www.mei.edu/content/article/al-qaeda-s-turning-against-its-syrian-affiliate

Well worth reading....

Fascinating by @colebunzel on the dispute over #HTS's relations to al-Qaeda, lots of indications of a real schism
https://goo.gl/1h8lzn

[OUTLAW 09]

Report: YPG prevented Arabs displaced from Raqqa and Deir Ezzor entering Minbij and Hasaka, they went to Jarabulus
https://www.nso-sy.com/Details/424/Displaced-civilians-leave-%E2%80%9Cdetention-camps%E2%80%9Din-YPG-held-areas-and-head-to-Jarablus/en

[OUTLAW 09]

Late last year, Brett McGurk met with Ferhat Abdi Sahin (Sahin Cilo), #PKK leader on #Turkey's most-wanted list.
http://sabahdai.ly/q2LNog

[OUTLAW 09]

How Did the US End up at the Gates of Raqqa?
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/how-did-the-us-end-up-at-the-gates-of-raqqa#.WR8nchEN5Oo.twitter#

[OUTLAW 09]

As if it weren't obvious that Syria was always deemed an inconvenient afterthought on the big idea:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/19/to-assuage-russia-obama-administration-backed-off-syria-chemical-weapons-plan/#

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING | News says #Regime take Al-Zarqaa Checkpoint (55 km to Syrian-Iraqi Border) near #AlTanaf in the Desert.

[OUTLAW 09]

Senior#Hezbollah#official#Hashem Safieddine designated terrorist jointly by US and KSA

[OUTLAW 09]

Mattis blamed #Iran for propping up Assad when Syrians rose against him “They’ve extended a war that should have ended long ago

SecDef said pro-Syrian govt forces that moved into deconfliction zone near al-Tanf are believed to be "Iranian-directed" #Syria

Hezbollah announce the deaths of 4 fighters possibly killed in US strikes yesterday south Syria - via @Sy_Reporter

[OUTLAW 09]

A drunk Russian pulled a gun on @jonathan_spyer in Damascus—Syrian security forces said they couldn't interfere
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/19/syria-has-ceased-to-exist-rebels-airstrikes-isis-russia-iran/#

Syria as a nation state under it's own control no longer exists......Iran and Russian effectively own and control it.....

[OUTLAW 09]

The Moscow Times
✔
@MoscowTimes
This new op-ed by Edward @gnuggat1 Walker walks you down the winding road of Russia's Syria entanglement.
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/the-growing-risks-of-russias-military-intervention-in-syria-op-ed-58048#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Breaking #FakeNews
Russian foreign minister #Lavrov blames the #US of protecting "Jabhat al-Nusra" with the Thursday air strikes.

No surprise of course.
#Russia has always described ALL anti-#Assad groups as "Nusra" or "ISIS" and fought them.

REMEMBER Putin declared at the UNGA that all Syrians that carry a weapon are terrorists.....

[Azor]

Late last year, Brett McGurk met with Ferhat Abdi Sahin (Sahin Cilo), #PKK leader on #Turkey's most-wanted list.
http://sabahdai.ly/q2LNog

McGurk was an official of the previous administration...

[Azor]

Firstly, the fears that Trump would cut off support for the FSA (the CIA’s Operation Timber Sycamore) and give Russia a freer hand in Syria have not materialized. Russian intervention has continued at the same level as during the Obama Administration, and certainly Trump is much more willing to confront Iran and its auxiliaries than his predecessor. Even were the CIA to withdraw support for the FSA, the lack of involvement and oversight may then permit unfettered support from Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Secondly, Trump has attacked Assad for using Sarin and this week attacked a pro-Assad convoy to protect a FSA unit. No such U.S. activity against pro-Assad forces occurred from 2011 through 2016. Thus far, Trump’s election is a net benefit to the FSA when compared to Obama’s tenure. It is no doubt less than ideal for the FSA, but it is a major improvement.

Thirdly, Trump inherited U.S. cooperation with the PKK from his predecessor. As Aaron Stein at the Atlantic Council recently noted (https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/when-it-comes-to-syria-and-the-kurds-erdogan-will-leave-washington-empty-handed/):


This [Turkish] plan was never feasible. The Turkish feeder program has not generated enough forces to take Raqqa, while Ankara’s proposed contribution was viewed with skepticism inside the coalition.

In reality, the Trump administration had the option to siege and take Raqqa with more U.S. conventional forces, or to undertake a much broader effort to train and equip a rival force from Syrian Arabs. Either of these two options could have helped to address Turkish concerns.

However, it would have slowed the campaign against the Islamic State and would have gone against the advice of the commanders on the ground. The slowing of the campaign would also contradict Trump’s own campaign pledge to speed up the war against ISIS. Therefore, the outcome was all but predetermined, with the SDF serving as the only capable ground force currently ready to fight ISIL in an urban environment. All that was needed was to grant the authorities to arm the YPG.

Overall, we are witnessing the same policies with some positive incremental changes. I say incremental because I did not find the punitive strike in response to the Sarin attack to be a major deviation. Had Assad used Sarin in 2016 or with a Clinton Administration, he would have probably been punished in a similar fashion.

There will never be a "war to end all wars". Using the PKK as a tool to defeat Daesh as a conventional force will not end the Sunni Arab insurgency, and will likely inflame Kurdish conflicts with Turkey, Iran and Syria. Whether Syria continues to be under minority Alawi rule or whether it comes under majority Sunni Arab rule, the Syrian government and the breakaway region of Rojava will come to blows. Whereas no-fly, no-drive and Turkish approval created a de facto independent Kurdish statelet in northern Iraq, a repetition will not be possible in northern Syria.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firstly, the fears that Trump would cut off support for the FSA (the CIA’s Operation Timber Sycamore) and give Russia a freer hand in Syria have not materialized. Russian intervention has continued at the same level as during the Obama Administration, and certainly Trump is much more willing to confront Iran and its auxiliaries than his predecessor. Even were the CIA to withdraw support for the FSA, the lack of involvement and oversight may then permit unfettered support from Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Secondly, Trump has attacked Assad for using Sarin and this week attacked a pro-Assad convoy to protect a FSA unit. No such U.S. activity against pro-Assad forces occurred from 2011 through 2016. Thus far, Trump’s election is a net benefit to the FSA when compared to Obama’s tenure. It is no doubt less than ideal for the FSA, but it is a major improvement.

Thirdly, Trump inherited U.S. cooperation with the PKK from his predecessor. As Aaron Stein at the Atlantic Council recently noted (https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/when-it-comes-to-syria-and-the-kurds-erdogan-will-leave-washington-empty-handed/):



Overall, we are witnessing the same policies with some positive incremental changes. I say incremental because I did not find the punitive strike in response to the Sarin attack to be a major deviation. Had Assad used Sarin in 2016 or with a Clinton Administration, he would have probably been punished in a similar fashion.

There will never be a "war to end all wars". Using the PKK as a tool to defeat Daesh as a conventional force will not end the Sunni Arab insurgency, and will likely inflame Kurdish conflicts with Turkey, Iran and Syria. Whether Syria continues to be under minority Alawi rule or whether it comes under majority Sunni Arab rule, the Syrian government and the breakaway region of Rojava will come to blows. Whereas no-fly, no-drive and Turkish approval created a de facto independent Kurdish statelet in northern Iraq, a repetition will not be possible in northern Syria.

Azor you still do not get it....

1. US air strike was not to protect FSA but to protect SF units the 5th and UK SAS...

2. Verified by FSA themselves with their comments that they had been ordered to move out of the crossing point....still not confirmed though

3. That TLAM was for nothing but show and that was it...had no impact on any of the ME players did not impress Iran nor did this air strike impress them

Both TLAM and air strikes served to provide Russia and Iran just more propaganda....

4. Trump could have broken with Obama but did not as he has absolutely no plan on how to defeat IS.

REMEMBER it was Trump himself that stated he would have within 60 days a "plan to defeat IS"..we are way pass 100 days and have you seen this "plan"....MIA......

5. By fully titling to the PKK Trump has ensured a decade of more fighting between Turkey and PKK

So all on all..what I have constantly bashed Obama for on his failed strategy because anything the FSA did that placed his Iran Deal in trouble he deflected back onto the Syrians...NOW we can continue to bash Trump FOR CONTINUING what basically was a pro Iranian strategy.....

That should have been apparent from the two postings here from former Obama types....BUT you seemed to miss those postings..

The Iran Deal was everything...and the Syrians were collateral damage...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...remember that Steel Dossier that you bashed me about....and now is it in fact impacting anything the US is doing as a FP????

The New York Times‏
Verifizierter Account
#
@nytimes

What President Trump told Russian officials about firing James Comey
http://nyti.ms/2pTMns7#


"I just fired the head of the FBI. He was crazy, a real nut job. I faced great pressure because of Russia. That's taken off."

President Trump 10 May 2017 Oval Office

Russian collusion...criminal investigation and now WH coverup.....


The Washington Post reported Friday afternoon that federal investigators were looking at a senior White House official as a “significant person of interest.” The article did not identify the official, though it noted that the person was “someone close to the president.”
A person of interest is someone law enforcement identifies as relevant to an investigation but who has not been charged or arrested.
And The New York Times reported that Trump had told visiting Russian officials in the Oval Office that firing Comey had taken pressure off the Russia probe.

The Independent‏
Verifizierter Account
#
@Independent
Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner 'person of interest in Russia investigation'
http://ind.pn/2qGulqu

[OUTLAW 09]

McGurk was an official of the previous administration...

So...??

Just confirms how badly the US has messed up for over 8 years....and somehow overlooked that the PKK was a Communist terrorist group since 1978...

[OUTLAW 09]

King Salman met Donald Trump on the tarmac. He didn't do the same for Obama last year.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-donald-trump-arrives-in-saudi-arabia-as-overseas-trip-starts-1495263979#

BTW...that 110B USDs arms deal could be viewed as "buying US actions against Iran" could it not????

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia delivering oil/gas industry equipment to Syria:

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...so there was no "blowback" on the Trump massive security failure????

REPORT: Israeli intelligence officials were shouting at U.S. counterparts in meetings over Trump's SNAFU
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/19/israeli-intelligence-furious-over-trumps-loose-lips-russia-iran-syria/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian rebels begin to leave last opposition-held Homs district
http://reut.rs/2q3uV0e

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: pro-Assad led by Druze fighters & SSNP took most E. #Suweida & #Jordan border from #FSA, entering #Dam. prov & heading to Al-Tanf

Syria: Pro-#Assad forces have captured #Zelaf area from #FSA and advancing along the #Jordan|ian border.

Also notice: @CJTFOIR did neither support the MOC #FSA in liberating the area from #ISIS nor did it help moderates when #Assad ran over them

For 2 years,#Assad gave a sh** about #ISIS,ruling the S-E of the country.
Just after the #FSA liberated those areas,the dictator stepped in.

AND the US does what again ....???? Nothing really.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Tartous: 50.000+ young Alawite men are hiding in #Tartous Province. #Assad regime conducts house-to-house raids to find recruits

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia: it is clear that the US can strike at will in Syria
http://uawire.org/news/russia-it-is-clear-that-the-us-can-strike-at-will-in-syria#

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: another #Iran|ian-backed #Iraq|i militia (Harakat Al-Abdal) from "Islamic Resistance" part of pro-Assad offensive towards Al-Tanf

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Hemimem base official telegram account posted a request from an anonymous to use FOAB thermobaric bomb in Jobar, Damascus -@eldorar1

[OUTLAW 09]

Tartous: 50.000+ young Alawite men are hiding in #Tartous Province. #Assad regime conducts house-to-house raids to find recruits

Assad regime deserter from #Tartous who is hiding in the mountains: " I can't choose death. For whom shall I die? And for what?”

[OUTLAW 09]

Pro-#Assad forces have confirmed captured #Zuluf Reservoir and Dam from #FSA.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.897678&lon=37.311544&z=14&m=b#

Aleppo: #FSA has captured 3 #Assad forces near #Al_Bab today.

Syria: There will be a giant besieged rebel pocket in the Southern #Syria|n Desert if the #FSA doesn't stop pro-#Assad forces or retreat.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor..now tell me the Trump WH has a solid Syrian plan...I see nothing but failures...actually now worse than Obama....


Pro-#Assad tweeps celebrate insufficient @CJTFOIR response to Iranian-led forces advance on US/UK forces.
PS: Interesting Nazi comparison...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...more along this same line....

Confirms earlier reports of raising Russian flag over positions captured by pro Assad forces from FSA east Suwaida
https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/866226510117695488#

Iran|ian-backed #Iraq|i militia Harakat Al-Abdal involvement for Al-Tanf battle w/ slogan "defend faith & holies, avengers of Zeinab".

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the introduction of the "De-Escalation Zones" in #Syria,pro-#Assad forces have captured more than 2000 km^2 of Syrian opposition land.

Talking about none-ISIS opposition.
Not a single km^2 of these areas in #EastGhouta, #RifDimashq, #Suwayda & #Homs province was held by HTS.

[OUTLAW 09]

News
16 people killed, 40 injured in suspected (pro-)#ISIS car bomb attack on #AhrarAlSham HQ in #Idlib province.

[OUTLAW 09]

Saudi may spend $350 billion on high end weapons, but if they don't focus on SOF/asymmetric threats, Iran will still run circles around them

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the introduction of the "De-Escalation Zones" in #Syria,pro-#Assad forces have captured more than 2000 km^2 of Syrian opposition land.

Talking about none-ISIS opposition.
Not a single km^2 of these areas in #EastGhouta, #RifDimashq, #Suwayda & #Homs province was held by HTS.

Syria: Pro-#Assad forces have captured #Raj_al_Issa from #FSA.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.694638&lon=37.571869&z=11&m=b&search=%D8%A2%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8% B1%D8%B5%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%8A#

US still not protecting the FSA units they trained and are not blocking Iranian backed Iraqi Shia militia EVN after stating in KSA that Iran is the leading terrorist supporting county in the world.

[OUTLAW 09]

Commander of 106th Guards Airborne Division, General Major Glushenkov Dmitry Valeryevich with head of LiwaAlQudus colonel Samer Jafar, Homs

As of May 9 this year, the 68th Army Corps was commanded by Major-General Andrey Mordvichev

So apparently Glushenkov wasn't promoted to Corps commander after all... he appears to have deployed straight to Syria?

[OUTLAW 09]

Almost all news about #Syria coming from pro-#Assad "sources". A few reports from #ISIS, a few reports from #YPG and zero from the rebels.

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING Russian re-qualified 26 DNR terrorists to be send to Syria as PMC Wagner mercs. Only 8 returned alive.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/866355075710693376#

[OUTLAW 09]

SyAAF T4 AB is updated over @TerraServer as of 6/5/2017 and shows:
4 L-39
9 Su-22 scattered on taxi ways
2 Su-24M2
1 Mi-8/17
7 RuAF helos

[OUTLAW 09]

New russian army electronic warfare system noticed in syria
Svet-KU radio control and information protection system.

[OUTLAW 09]

Pictures of the Belgian SFG on the frontline with #Kurdish soldiers north of #TalAfar

[OUTLAW 09]

Ongoing heavy #AssadPutin air force attacks on #Daraa city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rn3B6qExNAw#

Daraa: Nonstop #Assad airstrikes, artillery shelling & rocket attacks on #Daraa since the morning. Pro-#Assad forces trying to advance.

Turkish pilot who shot down Russian aircraft gets a five year jail term....great motivation for future Turkish pilots that are in harms way....

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA rebels in the Syrian desert captured al Halba village from ISIS, 70km from al Tanf.
http://youtu.be/CFCd9QGs4M4

Overheard in German Foreign Office: If Saudi had invested $320b in Iraq & Syria instead of US arms, would Iran have as much influence there

Very valid comment....

[Azor]

Azor you still do not get it....

1. US air strike was not to protect FSA but to protect SF units the 5th and UK SAS...

2. Verified by FSA themselves with their comments that they had been ordered to move out of the crossing point....still not confirmed though

3. That TLAM was for nothing but show and that was it...had no impact on any of the ME players did not impress Iran nor did this air strike impress them

Both TLAM and air strikes served to provide Russia and Iran just more propaganda....

4. Trump could have broken with Obama but did not as he has absolutely no plan on how to defeat IS.

REMEMBER it was Trump himself that stated he would have within 60 days a "plan to defeat IS"..we are way pass 100 days and have you seen this "plan"....MIA......

5. By fully titling to the PKK Trump has ensured a decade of more fighting between Turkey and PKK

So all on all..what I have constantly bashed Obama for on his failed strategy because anything the FSA did that placed his Iran Deal in trouble he deflected back onto the Syrians...NOW we can continue to bash Trump FOR CONTINUING what basically was a pro Iranian strategy.....

That should have been apparent from the two postings here from former Obama types....BUT you seemed to miss those postings..

The Iran Deal was everything...and the Syrians were collateral damage...

RE:

1-2. Regardless, Obama was loath to use force against Assad even to protect U.S. personnel, for fear of the optics. The fact that the U.S. is now unconcerned with the optics of appearing to provide CAS for the rebels (or “terrorists” according to Damascus and Moscow) indicates a major change of policy.

3. Thus far, there have been no reports of any chemical weapons use by Assad since the airstrike on Shayrat Airbase, let alone of Sarin.

4. Trump was never going to radically break from Obama’s handling of Daesh. The fact is that Obama’s approach was the most cost-effective, and fit with his overall CT strategy of containment and attrition. Any radical departure would either be prohibitively expensive in blood, treasure and political capital, or would allow for a resurgence of Daesh. Neither Trump nor the Republicans are especially fond of the JCPOA. Whereas Obama was prepared to give Iran a free hand in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and to tolerate Iranian provocations such as the capture and parading of U.S. soldiers, Trump does not appear to have those inclinations. Any approach that does not involve direct conflict with Iran can be regarded as “pro-Iranian”, given that country’s aggression.

Syrians were not “collateral damage” for the JCPOA. The fact is that humanitarian grounds aside, the U.S. had no compelling interest to intervene in Syria. Rather than the JCPOA, I would suggest that probably there was a gentleman’s agreement between Washington, Moscow and Damascus, that Obama would not intervene in Syria as long as Assad surrendered his chemical weapons. It was difficult to punish Assad in 2013, when Washington wanted him to both refrain from using chemical weapons and to keep those weapons secure.

5. The tilt to the PKK was done by the previous administration. For the reasons that Aaron Stein provided above, it is a sound policy if the objective is solely the defeat of Daesh as a statelet and conventional force, and as quickly as possible. As for any unfinished business or loose ends, these were also present in 1865, 1918, 1945, 1953 and 1991, to say nothing of later marches to folly. Arguably, the Vietnam War's end has produced the least fallout of any major American war, despite the loss.

[Azor]

FSA rebels in the Syrian desert captured al Halba village from ISIS, 70km from al Tanf.
http://youtu.be/CFCd9QGs4M4

Overheard in German Foreign Office: If Saudi had invested $320b in Iraq & Syria instead of US arms, would Iran have as much influence there

Very valid comment....

It is a very valid comment. I would have preferred that Trump pressured KSA to provide humanitarian aid for Iraqi and Syrian refugees, and to even take a few hundred thousand in. Despite the GCC's antipathy toward Iran, it is about a pro-Shia as France was pro-Catholic during the Thirty Years War. Indeed, Egypt is being kept barely afloat simply for the sake of Saudi border security.

[OUTLAW 09]

RE:

1-2. Regardless, Obama was loath to use force against Assad even to protect U.S. personnel, for fear of the optics. The fact that the U.S. is now unconcerned with the optics of appearing to provide CAS for the rebels (or “terrorists” according to Damascus and Moscow) indicates a major change of policy.

3. Thus far, there have been no reports of any chemical weapons use by Assad since the airstrike on Shayrat Airbase, let alone of Sarin.

4. Trump was never going to radically break from Obama’s handling of Daesh. The fact is that Obama’s approach was the most cost-effective, and fit with his overall CT strategy of containment and attrition. Any radical departure would either be prohibitively expensive in blood, treasure and political capital, or would allow for a resurgence of Daesh. Neither Trump nor the Republicans are especially fond of the JCPOA. Whereas Obama was prepared to give Iran a free hand in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and to tolerate Iranian provocations such as the capture and parading of U.S. soldiers, Trump does not appear to have those inclinations. Any approach that does not involve direct conflict with Iran can be regarded as “pro-Iranian”, given that country’s aggression.

Syrians were not “collateral damage” for the JCPOA. The fact is that humanitarian grounds aside, the U.S. had no compelling interest to intervene in Syria. Rather than the JCPOA, I would suggest that probably there was a gentleman’s agreement between Washington, Moscow and Damascus, that Obama would not intervene in Syria as long as Assad surrendered his chemical weapons. It was difficult to punish Assad in 2013, when Washington wanted him to both refrain from using chemical weapons and to keep those weapons secure.

5. The tilt to the PKK was done by the previous administration. For the reasons that Aaron Stein provided above, it is a sound policy if the objective is solely the defeat of Daesh as a statelet and conventional force, and as quickly as possible. As for any unfinished business or loose ends, these were also present in 1865, 1918, 1945, 1953 and 1991, to say nothing of later marches to folly. Arguably, the Vietnam War's end has produced the least fallout of any major American war, despite the loss.

FSA Unified Military Council for Deir EzZor coordinating w/ supporting countries prepare for big battle #DeirEzZor:
http://eldorar.com/node/111650

Turkish ambo to US, Serdar Kılıç, rips US policy in Syria for backing YPG for battle of Raqqa. No way to treat a 65-year ally, he said

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Rebels have confirmed killed 11 #Assad forces in #Daraa City today, most of them Alawites from #Tartous and #Latakia.

[OUTLAW 09]

AFTER the Trump tilt in KSA to "contain" Iran...appears it was all just words...just as was the Trump TLAM attack...all intentions and that was about it....

Over the past 24 hours, #Iranian-led forces captured 100 more square kilometres of Syrian-opposition-held land in #RifDimashq.

[OUTLAW 09]

3 people killed, 15 injured in a suicide car bomb attack in (regime-held) #Homs city.

[CrowBat]

REThe fact that the U.S. is now unconcerned with the optics of appearing to provide CAS for the rebels (or “terrorists” according to Damascus and Moscow)...It's very simple, actually: the 'terrorists' in question are forbidden from fighting Damascus and Moscow. They are fighting Daesh all the time.

Now, feel free to make up your mind...


The fact is that Obama’s approach was the most cost-effective...16 Years since 9/11, 16 years of war in Afghanistan, 16 years of war in Yemen, 14 years of war in Iraq, ... and there are still characters calling that 'cost-effective'... :rolleyes:


Arguably, the Vietnam War's end has produced the least fallout of any major American war, despite the loss....oh, but sure: because people like you are insistent on ignoring Vietnamese and Cambodian opinions about this 'least fallout'...

[Azor]

Ah, I see that after having been driven into hiding in the Guenser Mountains some days ago, you have cleared your calendar for some harassing fire...

Shall I send in a Provincial Reconstruction Team or the NKVD? Decisions. Decisions...


Now, feel free to make up your mind...

About what, my good man?


16 Years since 9/11, 16 years of war in Afghanistan, 16 years of war in Yemen, 14 years of war in Iraq, ... and there are still characters calling that 'cost-effective'...

I specifically referred to Obama's approach, not Bush's. If you have a more cost-effective plan than feel free to present it.


...oh, but sure: because people like you are insistent on ignoring Vietnamese and Cambodian opinions about this 'least fallout'...

How do I ignore them? The U.S. intervention in Indochina only delayed the Communist takeover. The vast majority of U.S. and RVN kills were combatants; the same cannot be said for Ho and his fellow travelers. Perhaps there is an inverse relationship between attrition and duration of conflict?

[OUTLAW 09]

Ah, I see that after having been driven into hiding in the Guenser Mountains some days ago, you have cleared your calendar for some harassing fire...

Shall I send in a Provincial Reconstruction Team or the NKVD? Decisions. Decisions...



About what, my good man?



I specifically referred to Obama's approach, not Bush's. If you have a more cost-effective plan than feel free to present it.



How do I ignore them? The U.S. intervention in Indochina only delayed the Communist takeover. The vast majority of U.S. and RVN kills were combatants; the same cannot be said for Ho and his fellow travelers. Perhaps there is an inverse relationship between attrition and duration of conflict?

Ayor.....I often point this out as the major "win" for the NVA in SVN....and yes the US was out of the fighting by 1971....

The following is of interest.....

Number of VC and NVA killed during the entire period 3.2M
Number of VC and NVA MIA for the entire period 1.2M

Figures come straight from Giap in a book he released after the war....

I personally read an intercepted handwritten COSVN Commanders letter to Giap....in a three month period in 1970 they had suffered alone 10,000 killed and missing.....BTW we captured that courier based on HUMINT...

Now if we look at say the US MIA and KIA ....is what roughly 60K????

So who in fact "won".....in the end?????

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the start of the #Russian military campaign in #Syria, the number of Syrian refugees increased by 744.413 persons.

RU Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu just claimed, 108.000 civilians could return to their homes due to the #RussianArmy's actions in #Syria.

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW...not all seems to be what it really is when referring to Russian Erdogan cooperation....

Trade war pitting Russian wheat against Turkish tomatoes escalates despite Putin-Erdogan meeting.
https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2017/05/24/691151-zerna-turtsiyu#

[OUTLAW 09]

Also the "Wider Idlib De-Escalation Zone" was shelled by pro-#Assad regime artillery units today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A556yW3rHE#…

Pro-#Assad forces kept shelling #Daraa city with artillery & air strikes today.
Within a "de-escalation zone".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49ctcTLT0OM#…

Multiple air strikes on #Syria's "Southern De-Escalation Zone" over the past hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd_lfZFqvQ0#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOGSsrZk7Tw#

The #Russian air force (Su-34) joined the #Assad air force in bombing #Daraa, located in #Syria's southern "De-Escalation Zone".

[OUTLAW 09]

More #Shoygu lies this morning, trying the conceal the #Assad regime #KhanShaykhun and #EastGhouta gas massacres.

[OUTLAW 09]

There's a serious situation developing. Qatari sites are now blocked in UAE & Saudi Arabia
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/qatar-state-news-website-hacked-fake-article-published-47598847#


Sabaq/Okaz (Saudi news) Saudi is going on a full ban/block of all Qatari media, AlJazeera, Al Watan, Qatari State news agency...etc

All out

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Forces Deploy near Syria's Border with Jordan
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13960302001064


TEHRAN (FNA)- Russian armored units have entered regions along the Syria-Jordan border to fortify the Syrian Army's border posts and positions and seal the borderline, Arab media outlets said.
The sources said that a Russian Mountain Operation Brigade battalion has arrived in the Southern provinces of Dara'a and Sweida.
The sources further added that the Russian battalion is duty bound to fortify the Syrian Army positons in the region and seal the country's border overlooking Jordan where the Syrian forces have recently gained the upper hand.##
A military source confirmed on Sunday that a group of Russian paratroopers and special forces arrived in the Southern province of Sweida, after the US-led coalition fighter jets targeted heavily a military convoy of the Syrian pro-government forces near the town of al-Tanf at the border with Iraq.
The source told AMN that the Russian military personnel arrived in the region to advise the Syrian government troops in Southern Syria, while also helping to deter any potential response from the US and Jordanian forces that carved a niche in Sweida and Homs provinces.
According to some media activists, the Russian forces were planning to build a base along the Sweida province’s border with Jordan.
Other media reports suggested that they were allegedly meant to engage the enemy forces and help the government troops capture the Iraqi border-crossing.
Lebanese Army General Charles Abi Nader, an expert in military strategy in the Middle East, told TASS on Saturday that the United States carried out a direct military intervention in Syria to prevent the establishment of the Syrian army’s control over the border with Iraq.
"There is no other explanation of the strike delivered by the US Air Force on the Syrian forces and units supporting them," the general said, TASS reported.
He added that the border area in Eastern Syria, where the army units are carrying out offensive now, has major strategic importance.
"There is the only border crossing there, through which one can get to Baghdad now, taking into consideration that the Rutbah-Ramadi road has been cleared of terrorists of the ISIL," the expert said.
"The goal of the US is evident - to prevent the restoration of transport links between Syria and Iraq and also Iran, which is the ally of Damascus," he stressed.
The expert noted that a similar intervention of the US Air Force occurred in September 2016 in the outskirts of Deir Ezzur. Then, the ISIL militants used the airstrike of the US aviation to seize a defensive position on the Jebel-Sarda mountain near a military airfield, which serves as a major basis of the government forces.
As the US-led coalition headquarters reported, on May 18 the aircraft struck pro-Syrian government forces operating within the established de-confliction zone with Russia Northwest of al-Tanf. The statement claimed that these units posed a threat to the United States and its partners. Several servicemen were killed in the strike.

[Azor]

Ayor.....I often point this out as the major "win" for the NVA in SVN....and yes the US was out of the fighting by 1971....

The following is of interest.....

Number of VC and NVA killed during the entire period 3.2M
Number of VC and NVA MIA for the entire period 1.2M

Figures come straight from Giap in a book he released after the war....

I personally read an intercepted handwritten COSVN Commanders letter to Giap....in a three month period in 1970 they had suffered alone 10,000 killed and missing.....BTW we captured that courier based on HUMINT...

Now if we look at say the US MIA and KIA ....is what roughly 60K????

So who in fact "won".....in the end?????

Outlaw,

Firstly, you seem to be unaware that you are preaching to the choir. Perhaps German "literalism" has rubbed off on you? ;)

Secondly, Giap's figures are grossly inflated and I would suggest that 1.1 million NVA and NLF deaths - the mid-range estimate of Rummel and Vietnam's 1995 claim - is a more accurate number.

Thirdly, Germany killed far more soldiers on the OstFront than it lost. Casualty ratios do not always equate to victory. The U.S. lost in Vietnam, because it failed to totally commit to a lofty goal: a strong pro-American state in South Vietnam. It could have made Vietnam ungovernable for Ho and the CPV if it had merely supported insurgencies instead.

Lastly, the Vietnam narrative was lost by the veterans. Despite clear Soviet mass murder in Afghanistan with not even a facade of cultural sensitivity, Westerners feel that Vietnam was a blacker chapter and blame the U.S. for millions of deaths, even though this is patently false. But it does serve a generation that dodged the draft in various ways to denigrate the war they wished to avoid...

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

Firstly, you seem to be unaware that you are preaching to the choir. Perhaps German "literalism" has rubbed off on you? ;)

Secondly, Giap's figures are grossly inflated and I would suggest that 1.1 million NVA and NLF deaths - the mid-range estimate of Rummel and Vietnam's 1995 claim - is a more accurate number.

Thirdly, Germany killed far more soldiers on the OstFront than it lost. Casualty ratios do not always equate to victory. The U.S. lost in Vietnam, because it failed to totally commit to a lofty goal: a strong pro-American state in South Vietnam. It could have made Vietnam ungovernable for Ho and the CPV if it had merely supported insurgencies instead.

Lastly, the Vietnam narrative was lost by the veterans. Despite clear Soviet mass murder in Afghanistan with not even a facade of cultural sensitivity, Westerners feel that Vietnam was a blacker chapter and blame the U.S. for millions of deaths, even though this is patently false. But it does serve a generation that dodged the draft in various ways to denigrate the war they wished to avoid...

Azor..one thing you need to learn urgently is when the Commander of COSVN is telling Giap his loses..believe them...we did....

US failed in VN AFTER the US Congress FAILED to continue to provide aid and weapons to SVN....end of story...

In three days of fighting we stacked over 400 NVA bodies and were still counting....so do not believe for a moment the figures are wrong....

I called in a B52 strike with danger close on a complete NVA regiment moving down the HCM trail.... where we stopped counting at over 900 on the move....

After the strike...not a single person or vehicle could be found during BDA....and that went on day after day after day...

So please do not throw at me figures from someone who was not on the ground counting bodies...and who published his thoughts in a book...ground reality rules in this case....or mix in WW2....

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle Orton
✔
@KyleWOrton
This day 2012: the Hula massacre by the #Assad regime, a key atrocity in inciting a sectarian war out of a peaceful protest movement.

Azor..this is what needs to be commented on not VN or WW2 or the Germans.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Hama: #Assad forces are busy destroying the crops in Northern #Hama with heavy artillery today.

[OUTLAW 09]

Updated #Map of Eastern #Homs and #Sham_Desert active battle fronts #Syria #Map via @Nawaroliver

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: 5 years ago #Assad forces committed the #Houla massacre. They slaughtered 108 civilians, including 34 women and 49 children.

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Heavy #Assad regime attacks with warplanes and artillery on #Daraa City today. Fierce clashes.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32.616442&lon=36.092577&z=16&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

Iranian-Backed Forces Advancing to Southeast Syria despite U.S. Warning | Middle East Institute
http://www.mei.edu/content/article/io/iranian-backed-forces-advancing-southeast-syria-despite-us-warning#

[OUTLAW 09]

Secret Qatari-Iranian meeting held in Baghdad: report
http://bit.ly/2rYUiAS

[Azor]

Outlaw,

Le Carre was not wrong in his opinion that Germans are such literalists. I will reply in-kind then, with no dark humor or attempt at objective detachment.


Azorone thing you need to learn urgently is when the Commander of COSVN is telling Giap his loses [sic]...believe them...we did....

Yet Giap refused to repeat the admission of 500,000 NLF/NVA fatalities through 1968 when interviewed in 1990 by Karnow. An aide of Giaps later claimed that the Communists lost at least a million combatants, primarily to the U.S (Karnow, 1990). Authors of Inside the VC and the NVA suggest that Giap was inflating Communist casualties to impress the West with North Vietnams determination to win the war (Lanning and Craig, 2008).


US failed in VN AFTER the US Congress FAILED to continue to provide aid and weapons to SVN...end of story...

Not exactly. How long could the South Vietnamese state have survived a combination of NVA conventional warfare lavishly supported by the Soviet Union and China on the one hand, and NLF subversion and guerrilla warfare on the other, even with U.S. materiel? Certainly U.S. airpower could have prevented a major conventional offensive by the NVA, but then Hanoi could have resorted to less conventional methods as well as expanding its IADS southward as part of a bite and hold strategy (e.g. Egypts Operation Badr in 1973). Regardless, South Vietnam was not a particularly strong state that its dependency on the U.S. was the crux of the problem. The U.S. defined victory as a strong and allied U.S. state in South Vietnam, albeit probably one that was far more liberal and democratic at the outset than was required either of South Korea or Taiwan.

Militarily, Johnsons restrictions on the use of airpower prior to and during his ground escalation was the death knell for the U.S. effort. By the time Nixon unleashed the B-52s, Hanoi was more than ready and had had years to prepare.

By the wars end, the U.S. had lost the hearts and minds of Americans and Westerners, despite the fact that the Communists were mass murderers and were also sectarian, targeting Catholics for some of the worst treatment. In a similar vein, note that the popular conception in the West of the Republican side of the Spanish Civil War is the idealism of the International Brigades, rather than the raping of nuns and crucifixion of priests, NKVD assassinations, and the dominant role of the Soviet Union. Properly educating people on these histories now would be akin to conducting a fair trial of the Ceausescus.

In many respects, the Vietnam War was a U.S. own goal. It did not commit to South Vietnam the way it had to Western Europe, Taiwan and South Korea, or even the way it had to former foes Germany, Italy and Japan. The U.S. tried to accomplish with a light footprint what only a heavy bootprint would do. The former level of effort was more than enough to set Indochina ablaze (paraphrasing Churchill), and force the Communists into meting out mass murder in frustration, thereby tarnishing their reputation in the manner of Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968) and Afghanistan (1979).

While the U.S. was busy covering up problems in Vietnam, it was busy producing corny videos of its successes. Yet these rather silly propaganda clips of South Koreans, Germans, Taiwanese and Japanese being brothers-in-arms and just like us (going for dinner and dancing), demonstrate the U.S. commitment to strong and friendly states for these diverse peoples. Interestingly, much as South Vietnam was outside the tent, so too is Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen et al.

The U.S. presence in Europe and East Asia today is as much about alliance solidarity and deterring Sino-Russian aggression as it is about preventing the rise of hostile state and non-state threats in these regions.


In three days of fighting we stacked over 400 NVA bodies and were still counting...so do not believe for a moment the figures are wrong...

But how does 400 Communist bodies counted transform into 4.4 million dead and missing?


I called in a B52 strike with danger close on a complete NVA regiment moving down the HCM trailwhere we stopped counting at over 900 on the move....

After the strike...not a single person or vehicle could be found during BDA....and that went on day after day after day...

Yet the B-52 was not the best tool for that sort of unconventional work. I read that on average each B-52 load dropped on the HCM trail killed three NLF/NVA personnel because of issues with accuracy, but I would have to get back to you with sourcing. The U.S. was so vexed by the Trail that it considered salting the area with fiberglass shards to irritate the skin of those who frequented it.

In any event, the danger of the Trail to any U.S. intervention in South Vietnam was foreseen by Kennedys Brain Trust. Compare the geography of South Korea to South Vietnam and one can instantly see the tyranny at work.


So please do not throw at me figures from someone who was not on the ground counting bodies...and who published his thoughts in a book...ground reality rules in this case....or mix in WW2....

Well, how about we refer to Guenter Lewys work America in Vietnam (1978)? He reduced U.S. estimates of NLF/NVA deaths by 30% to account for U.S. soldiers killing civilians and then claiming that they were combatants. If Lewys figures are to be believed, the NLF/NVA only lost some 530,000 between 1955 and 1975.

Now, if I have any issue with R.J. Rummels research, it is that he includes outliers to arrive at his middle estimates, including minimizers such as Lewy as well as maximizers. Yet his inclusion of low and high estimates provides a range which one can use to determine if a specific estimate is reasonable or unreasonable. Given that the highest estimate for NLF/NVA deaths is 1.5 million, your suggestion of 4.4 million (KIA and MIA) is utterly ridiculous.

Any person familiar with studies on mass murder and casualties of war should be familiar with Rummels work, whether one accepts it on an unqualified basis or not. Rummels middle estimate of 1.1 million deaths is corroborated by both the Vietnamese government (1995) and the British Medical Journal (2008).

As I recall, the Americans fled from the rooftop of the embassy in Saigon and had to push helicopters off carrier decks into the sea in order to make room for fleeing citizens and South Vietnamese refugees. Therefore, there was no opportunity for Americans to fully count the bodies on the ground or get a proper measure of the ground reality, was there?

[OUTLAW 09]

The situation of proxy armies, under-strength local forces and stalemate on the ground in #Syria now, is like Central Europe in early 1648

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

Le Carr was not wrong in his opinion that Germans are such literalists. I will reply in-kind then, with no dark humor or attempt at objective detachment.



Yet Giap refused to repeat the admission of 500,000 NLF/NVA fatalities through 1968 when interviewed in 1990 by Karnow. An aide of Giaps later claimed that the Communists lost at least a million combatants, primarily to the U.S (Karnow, 1990). Authors of Inside the VC and the NVA suggest that Giap was inflating Communist casualties to impress the West with North Vietnams determination to win the war (Lanning and Craig, 2008).

Not exactly. How long could the South Vietnamese state have survived a combination of NVA conventional warfare lavishly supported by the Soviet Union and China on the one hand, and NLF subversion and guerrilla warfare on the other, even with U.S. materiel? Certainly U.S. airpower could have prevented a major conventional offensive by the NVA, but then Hanoi could have resorted to less conventional methods as well as expanding its IADS southward as part of a bite and hold strategy (e.g. Egypts Operation Badr in 1973). Regardless, South Vietnam was not a particularly strong state that its dependency on the U.S. was the crux of the problem. The U.S. defined victory as a strong and allied U.S. state in South Vietnam, albeit probably one that was far more liberal and democratic at the outset than was required either of South Korea or Taiwan.

Militarily, Johnsons restrictions on the use of airpower prior to and during his ground escalation was the death knell for the U.S. effort. By the time Nixon unleashed the B-52s, Hanoi was more than ready and had had years to prepare.

By the wars end, the U.S. had lost the hearts and minds of Americans and Westerners, despite the fact that the Communists were mass murderers and were also sectarian, targeting Catholics for some of the worst treatment. In a similar vein, note that the popular conception in the West of the Republican side of the Spanish Civil War is the idealism of the International Brigades, rather than the raping of nuns and crucifixion of priests, NKVD assassinations, and the dominant role of the Soviet Union. Properly educating people on these histories now would be akin to conducting a fair trial of the Ceausescus.

In many respects, the Vietnam War was a U.S. own goal. It did not commit to South Vietnam the way it had to Western Europe, Taiwan and South Korea, or even the way it had to former foes Germany, Italy and Japan. The U.S. tried to accomplish with a light footprint what only a heavy bootprint would do. The former level of effort was more than enough to set Indochina ablaze (paraphrasing Churchill), and force the Communists into meting out mass murder in frustration, thereby tarnishing their reputation in the manner of Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968) and Afghanistan (1979).

While the U.S. was busy covering up problems in Vietnam, it was busy producing corny videos of its successes. Yet these rather silly propaganda clips of South Koreans, Germans, Taiwanese and Japanese being brothers-in-arms and just like us (going for dinner and dancing), demonstrate the U.S. commitment to strong and friendly states for these diverse peoples. Interestingly, much as South Vietnam was outside the tent, so too is Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen et al.

The U.S. presence in Europe and East Asia today is as much about alliance solidarity and deterring Sino-Russian aggression as it is about preventing the rise of hostile state and non-state threats in these regions.



But how does 400 Communist bodies counted transform into 4.4 million dead and missing?



Yet the B-52 was not the best tool for that sort of unconventional work. I read that on average each B-52 load dropped on the HCM trail killed three NLF/NVA personnel because of issues with accuracy, but I would have to get back to you with sourcing. The U.S. was so vexed by the Trail that it considered salting the area with fiberglass shards to irritate the skin of those who frequented it.

In any event, the danger of the Trail to any U.S. intervention in South Vietnam was foreseen by Kennedys Brain Trust. Compare the geography of South Korea to South Vietnam and one can instantly see the tyranny at work.



Well, how about we refer to Guenter Lewys work America in Vietnam (1978)? He reduced U.S. estimates of NLF/NVA deaths by 30% to account for U.S. soldiers killing civilians and then claiming that they were combatants. If Lewys figures are to be believed, the NLF/NVA only lost some 530,000 between 1955 and 1975.

Now, if I have any issue with R.J. Rummels research, it is that he includes outliers to arrive at his middle estimates, including minimizers such as Lewy as well as maximizers. Yet his inclusion of low and high estimates provides a range which one can use to determine if a specific estimate is reasonable or unreasonable. Given that the highest estimate for NLF/NVA deaths is 1.5 million, your suggestion of 4.4 million (KIA and MIA) is utterly ridiculous.

Any person familiar with studies on mass murder and casualties of war should be familiar with Rummels work, whether one accepts it on an unqualified basis or not. Rummels middle estimate of 1.1 million deaths is corroborated by both the Vietnamese government (1995) and the British Medical Journal (2008).

As I recall, the Americans fled from the rooftop of the embassy in Saigon and had to push helicopters off carrier decks into the sea in order to make room for fleeing citizens and South Vietnamese refugees. Therefore, there was no opportunity for Americans to fully count the bodies on the ground or get a proper measure of the ground reality, was there?

So know for someone who was not there you quote a awful lot of individuals who were also not there....

BTW...the Embassy personnel and Marine personnel were those on the last copter....my former unit commander I worked with here in Berlin was on the last flight.

BTW...you forgot that in the 1972 Easter offensive the US air together with SVN army and marine units did in fact inflict heavy loses on the NVA and drove them back into Cambodia and Laos....fact not fiction....

The numbers that Giap talked about were not inflated as he was not trying to impress anyone in the West with his statements...

Check the number of all the actual NVA units who fought in SVN and then take an accurate listing of their manning strength and you might be surprised on how accurately they matched.....and if you take the average of in 1970 line crossers who deserted NVA units of 25,000 then your provided figures start to look a tad unreal...

We captured the complete logistics listing for all member of the Ho's on personal honorific Regt....we listed them has having only 900...actual logistics listing with complete names and each individuals equipment 1200....

Up and until 1975 NVA was able to mobilize and send south any number of needed troops....as the entire country was mobilized for complete and total war....

So now go back to the books and start all over...

Secondly, in one specific local village we knew we have exactly 7 VC members by name...we captured two and went to the village and stated surrender or we will kill the remaining 5 in ambushes....FIVE came in....

So while it is great to hear people calculate...they never took in the ground reality....

So now get back to the thread at hand...

[OUTLAW 09]

Pro-Assad forces lay siege on rebel-held east Qalamoun after ISIS withdrawal.
US/UK backed FSA were not allowed to link with east Qalamoun.

[Azor]

So know for someone who was not there you quote a awful lot of individuals who were also not there....

BTW...the Embassy personnel and Marine personnel were those on the last copter....my former unit commander I worked with here in Berlin was on the last flight.

BTW...you forgot that in the 1972 Easter offensive the US air together with SVN army and marine units did in fact inflict heavy loses on the NVA and drove them back into Cambodia and Laos....fact not fiction....

The numbers that Giap talked about were not inflated as he was not trying to impress anyone in the West with his statements...

Check the number of all the actual NVA units who fought in SVN and then take an accurate listing of their manning strength and you might be surprised on how accurately they matched.....and if you take the average of in 1970 line crossers who deserted NVA units of 25,000 then your provided figures start to look a tad unreal...

We captured the complete logistics listing for all member of the Ho's on personal honorific Regt....we listed them has having only 900...actual logistics listing with complete names and each individuals equipment 1200....

Up and until 1975 NVA was able to mobilize and send south any number of needed troops....as the entire country was mobilized for complete and total war....

So now go back to the books and start all over...

Secondly, in one specific local village we knew we have exactly 7 VC members by name...we captured two and went to the village and stated surrender or we will kill the remaining 5 in ambushes....FIVE came in....

So while it is great to hear people calculate...they never took in the ground reality....

So now get back to the thread at hand...


As usual you get too close to your subjects to see clearly. This is reflected in your desire to argue with the person who probably agrees with you most on Vietnam here at SWJ/SWC.


You can't admit that you simply don't know. Unfortunately, your estimate of 4.4 million dead NVA/NLF is simply fanciful, and exaggerations like that only harden the hearts and minds of those who believe the popular narrative of the war, which seem to include Cooper and Jones, to name two.


The VVAW members were in Vietnam, weren't they? So perhaps we should give them the final word. What say you to that?


I suppose all those scholars still going over World Wars I and II, the Civil War, the Napoleonic Wars and the Thirty Years Wars should simply give up. Perhaps we should take the word of an elderly Russian with several dozen watches over Glantz?

[Azor]

By Paul Iddon at WIB: https://warisboring.com/after-bailing-out-assad-the-russian-military-risks-a-syria-quagmire/

It has been well over one year, seven months since Russia’s military intervened in Syria’s civil war. From the get-go the Kremlin brushed aside claims that its campaign#would lead to an Iraq or Afghanistan-like quagmire.

Relying heavily on air power, Russia helped the Syrian regime to rebound from a defensive posture, launch offensive operations and reclaim substantial territory. Russia also retains a sizable amount of troops and equipment in Syria, despite two highly publicized but phony withdrawals in March 2016 and January 2017, which were both normal#military rotations.

Russia has meanwhile only slowly added to its military presence in the country, according to experts. The Russian air force’s operational tempo has also decreased now that Bashar Al Assad’s regime appears stable. Propping up the regime was one of Russia’s primary goals in Syria—and accomplishments.

“They are really cautious to keep the bare minimum force presence and nothing more,” Michael Kofman, a leading Russia expert and Global Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute told War Is Boring.“I don’t see Russia taking steps that would lead to mission creep and eventual conflict ownership, but with that comes a lack of control over local actors, so its a double-edged sword.”

“The best indicator is force posture. If it’s increasing then it’s a bad sign.”

Neil Hauer, an expert on Russian-Syrian relations at SecDev, says there are several factors at play.

“Russia has scaled down its combat operations significantly over the last several months. It’s kept up bombing on rebel strongholds in Idlib, but even that has been reduced compared to the first 16 months of its intervention,” Hauer said. “So in a strictly kinetic sense, their operations have decreased.”

Nevertheless, Russia now has more military forces in Syria than ever before. These soldiers, airmen and contractors#number nearly 10,000, according to Hauer—including roughly 5,000 personnel at Hmeimim Air Base, 2,500 Wagner group mercenaries and 1,000 North Caucasian military police.

Russia has “also placed a lot of political capital behind these proposed ‘de-escalation zones,’ which will reportedly be partly secured by Russian or North Caucasian military police,” Hauer added.

This comes as the war in Syria approaches a new phase marked by the looming defeat of Islamic State. “The questions that follow—the fate of Idlib, Raqqa city, how the regime will interact with the Syrian Kurds and so forth—are much more volatile and likely to cause Russia diplomatic headaches as well as generating potential military conflict,” Hauer added.

On May 18, 2017, U.S. warplanes struck Iranian-backed paramilitaries who#were approaching U.S.-backed New Syrian Army militia fighters around Al Tanf near the Iraqi border, the same area where Russia dropped cluster bombs on the NSyA in June 2016. “Russia apparently tried to get the regime and Iran to turn back, but they didn’t listen,” Hauer said.

“Problems with its allies have already caused Russia to have to deploy additional ground forces to ensure its goals are achieved in key areas, with the Chechen military police coming as a response to Iranian interference with ceasefire and evacuation deals in Aleppo.”

Given these circumstances, it’s possible Russia could deploy more ground troops—most likely more military police from the North Caucasus, an option which Russian officials have suggested.

“While there isn’t a need for large-scale Russian military activities, I do think we’ll see more Russian ground personnel, in the form of Chechen special forces and Wagner mercenaries, increasingly deploying to Syria as Russia’s desire for greater influence on the ground grows.”

However, Timur Akhmetov, an analyst on Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, believes the Kremlin is trying to minimize its military involvement in Syria while pushing for a political solution to end the conflict. Russia prefers air strikes, advising and supplying military equipment—not a larger ground presence.

“Assad on the other hand claims he is ready to fight until the very last terrorist [is defeated], he has also claimed Syria will probably need more Russia troops on the ground,” Akhmetov said. “Russia is trying to channel the conflict into the political canvas—freezing active clashes in western Syria. For this, Russia is trying to attract Turkey, because it is one of major players that influence the opposition.”

[OUTLAW 09]

As usual you get too close to your subjects to see clearly. This is reflected in your desire to argue with the person who probably agrees with you most on Vietnam here at SWJ/SWC.


You can't admit that you simply don't know. Unfortunately, your estimate of 4.4 million dead NVA/NLF is simply fanciful, and exaggerations like that only harden the hearts and minds of those who believe the popular narrative of the war, which seem to include Cooper and Jones, to name two.


The VVAW members were in Vietnam, weren't they? So perhaps we should give them the final word. What say you to that?


I suppose all those scholars still going over World Wars I and II, the Civil War, the Napoleonic Wars and the Thirty Years Wars should simply give up. Perhaps we should take the word of an elderly Russian with several dozen watches over Glantz?

THEN argue with Giap if you can....it is his figures not mine....but my experience is ground reality which you never saw....

By say about 1975 every third family in NVA had lost one or more members of that family fighting in the South...you do the math....

[OUTLAW 09]

The New York Times‏
In the fight against ISIS, U.S. airstrikes have killed hundreds and possibly thousands of civilians
http://nyti.ms/2qj1afU

And the fighting for Raqqa has not even started.....and Mosul is far from over...

[OUTLAW 09]

Despite massive Assad / Iranian-led gains in the area, @CJTFOIR keeps bombing ISIS near Palmyra.

DeirEzzor: #US warplanes committed a massacre in #Mayadin City and killed 80 civilians, including 35 children(!).

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: #FSA counter-attack E. of #Suweida started (Desert Volcano Battle). Several armours reportedly destroyed. Heavy clashes ongoing.

[OUTLAW 09]

Exclusive: US knows its allies have killed civilians in Iraq and Syria but they won't admit it.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/26/america-helps-europe-conceal-its-civilian-casualties-in-iraq-and-syria/#

War monitor: US airstrikes in Syrian town have killed 100 including 40 children
http://read.bi/2qr7Bsz

Syria 106 dead including 42 children after #US airstrikes on Al-Mayadin town in eastern #DeirEzzor province

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: visual confirmation pro-Regime forces took Sawanah phosphate mine SW. of #Palmyra.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.216558&lon=38.022770&z=16&m#

[Azor]

The New York Times‏
In the fight against ISIS, U.S. airstrikes have killed hundreds and possibly thousands of civilians
http://nyti.ms/2qj1afU

And the fighting for Raqqa has not even started.....and Mosul is far from over...

Don't we all follow Airwars? Do we really need the Gray Lady as middleman here? I appreciate Airwars working to keep the U.S. and its partners "honest", but as usual there is no context:


Airstrikes and CAS in built-up areas always incur more casualties
Daesh has a long history of using civilians as human shields
The Iraqi Army is engaged in urban combat in large populated cities (esp. Mosul)
What is the ratio of civilian-to-combatant deaths?
What are the trends?
How does the Coalition compare to say the SyAAF, RuAF or Saudi-led Coalition in Yemen?
In 1944, Allied tactical airpower killed some 30,000 French civilians as part of the invasion of Europe, in addition to 30,000 killed by strategic bombing


Unfortunately, this myopic sort of reporting lends itself to popular misconceptions such as those that continue to haunt us from the Vietnam War e.g. how many recall Hue vs. My Lai?

If Airwars is to be believed, it is the Coalition, rather than the RuAF (SyAAF is ignored) that is murdering civilians and children...

[Azor]

THEN argue with Giap if you can...it is his figures not mine...but my experience is ground reality which you never saw...

By say about 1975 every third family in NVA had lost one or more members of that family fighting in the South...you do the math....

For someone who rightly depends upon anonymity in today's intrusive and interconnected age, you sure try to get personal. You should know by now that I don't bite. :)

Do you have a source for Giap's 4.4 million figure? Which book of his?

I didn't know that the NVA enrolled whole families, but it does make the whole debate over women serving in combat units today rather silly, doesn't it?

[OUTLAW 09]

Video shows Russian helicopters firing missiles at Syrian rebels near al-Tanf - place of US airstrikes last week
https://lenta.ru/news/2017/05/26/mi35/#

[OUTLAW 09]

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
✔
@mfa_russia
We are deeply worried over mass deaths of civilians in #Iraq in ongoing bombing and shelling by the US-led coalition
http://tass.com/politics/947959

ALL I can say is...REALLY........Russia has not killed less civilians...really??

[Azor]

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
✔
@mfa_russia
We are deeply worried over mass deaths of civilians in #Iraq in ongoing bombing and shelling by the US-led coalition
http://tass.com/politics/947959

ALL I can say is...REALLY........Russia has not killed less civilians...really??

Refer back to that Airwars/NYT post you made. This is what happens when one side is transparent and the other is opaque.

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW..the US was not at all in forthcoming on this..several NGOs have been literally demanding that the US investigate...you would have noticed that YES the USAF admitted to killing 100 civilians in Mosul in one attack BUT then placed the blame on IS hidden IEDs which detonated when the bomb hit...BUT WAIT...they would not have been killed if the bomb had not dropped...right???

REMEMBER the Syrian mosque attack that CENTCOM claimed was a drone strike on top AQ leaders which turned out to be civilians...story was pushed hard by @bellingcat and then suddenly CENTCOM agreed....

So do not come with the US is more open than the Russians..they are both hiding and hiding and hiding...

A wise man who just died and I really liked a lot of his IR analysis and books.....as he was of the "old guard European thinker model"......

RIP ...... The U.S. has lost one of its great strategic thinkers -- yet we never discuss anything from him here at SWJ.....as it would challenge way to many....

Heavy and rude trolling tonight, all about a man who died. It's not even a full moon...and they have been largely never outside the US and do not have a passport and they are proTrump troll accounts on top of it...

Pavlo Klimkin
✔
@PavloKlimkin
A legend has gone. Condolences to family of Zbigniew #Brzezinski - great global thinker, who inspired Eastern Europe to get rid of communism.

[OUTLAW 09]

MUST READ: Interview with wise man @zbig Brzezinski. On #Putin: "particularly dangerous that he is a gambler."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-zbigniew-brzezinski-on-russia-and-ukraine-a-1041795.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: Regime deployed several 130 mm SPGs with desert camo for its offensive vs #FSA on E. #Suweida front.

[OUTLAW 09]

RT yday: "Peace-loving citizens will barely like" NATO accession to anti-#ISIS coalition.
You see their twist!
While calling EU countries ....reaction to islamist terrorism weak and calling for more cooperation w/Russia, Kremlin media opposes more western anti-terror activities.

NOTICE the Russian referral to the Trump comment that NATO is obsolete....

[OUTLAW 09]

DeirEzzor: #YPG/#SDF fighters have beaten & raped a woman in #DeirEzzor Province on 25 May, threatened to kill her.
http://en.deirezzor24.net/a-group-of-sdf-fighters-flexed-their-muscles-against-a-woman-and-her-toddler-in-rural-deir-ezzor-and-raped-her/#


BUT WAIT...she was Sunni Arab and the YPG fighters were Kurdish....and the US supports them thus just as complicit as the rapists are....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express .......Ship of Interest

From Novorossiysk, Sierra Leone flag cargo vessel Kapetanios transits Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria (with falsified AIS)

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian "war on terror in Syria"...remember that was the reason they told the UNGA they were going into Syria for.....

[OUTLAW 09]

News

#Iran's secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Shamkhani: No co-existence with #US forces on Syrian soil.

We will see.

[OUTLAW 09]

T-90: Shtora visible

[OUTLAW 09]

"Russia in the Eastern Mediterranean: Intervention, Deterrence, Containment."
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dome.12103/full#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian engineers in Syria infamous for vandal graffiti:
https://informnapalm.org/en/russian-engineers-in-syria-infamous-for-vandal-graffiti/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: Rebels destroyed an #Assad BMP, a MLRS, a 2S1 Gvozdika and a technical east of #Suweida.

Fierce clashes.

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: #Russia|n MP allegedly E. of #Suweida where #FSA launched a counter-attack yesterday (no gain).

[OUTLAW 09]

Quneitra: an #Israel|i drone strike near Madina Al-Baath killed 3 pro-Assad last night, incl. a Lieutenant.

[OUTLAW 09]

RuAF Ka-52 firing a missile @ 02:00
https://youtu.be/1S3yIUoU10w?t=
… in Abu Liyah
http://wikimapia.org/#lat=34.704523&lon=37.339847&z=17&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

No surprise,but a good illustration of what the #AssadPutin & #Iran alliance is trying to achieve in easter #Syria,fighting #ISIS &the #FSA.

[OUTLAW 09]

Exclusively, The coalition dropped leaflets warning SAA elements.

حصري، التحالف الدولي يحذر عناصر الأسد بمناشير.

https://www.facebook.com/HammurabisJustice/posts/1426850690714961#

US-led Coalition dropped leaftets warning pro-Assad forces to stay beyond 55 km from Al-Tanf HQ, h/t @Hammurabi_News.

[OUTLAW 09]

Clashes between SDF and ISIS south of Al-Mansurah town and Hanidah,in an attempt by SDF to capture both towns

Regime losses this morning #Zulf E al-#Suwayda:
• T-72
• 2 cannons
• Radio comms vehicle
• 23 mm machine gun
http://qasioun.net/en/news/show/70410#

[OUTLAW 09]

One of the operations of HTS special forces that killed a group of Assadists in W. #Aleppo https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=p5zY1Q8BuvE#

Moderator adds: this video is private and not readily available to view.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's state TV: "#Iran won't sit idly by, while Saudi Arabia is swelling up with U.S. weapons, they will buy arms from Russia & #China."

[OUTLAW 09]

The Coalition & SDF targeted #Raqqa city by more than 30 airstrikes & 80 artillery shells & rockets, last 24 hours & killed +35 civilians .

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express

Russian Navy's cargo ship Dvinitsa-50 southbound on the Bosphorus, looking quite heavy..she is looking rather ragged for wear....

Heavist seen in the last year.....

[OUTLAW 09]

At press conf w/ #Putin, @EmmanuelMacron says use of chemical weapons in #Syria is a 'red line' that will trigger 'retaliation' by #France

Looks like Putin is sad his Socialist Hollande is no longer in power....harsh words from a major Player....

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: The most likely #PMU aims in the coming months will be #Al_Qaim, #Mayadin, #DeirEzzor Oil Fields and #Abu_Kamal.

Damascus: Rebels repelling #Assad forces in Eastern #Ghouta today.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.549299&lon=36.468000&z=15&m=b …

Iran-backed Hashed al-Shaabi pushed ISIS from border town of Baaj today, cutting key ISIS supply line into Syria:
https://www.apnews.com/b4f81b0ba2a34b83bee4c3b3b7a3ebcd …

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT

US-backed rebels losing territory in east Syrian desert to regime. Rebels: US "not our partner" in fighting #Assad.
http://bit.ly/2qsIrPh

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: The #Iran|ian Major General Qasem Soleimani arrived at the #Iraq|i - #Syria|n border and giving orders to #PMU commanders.

[OUTLAW 09]

Why Ba'aj is so strategically important to Iran and the regime:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/16/iran-changes-course-of-road-to-mediterranean-coast-to-avoid-us-forces …

[OUTLAW 09]

U.S. Cuts Ties With a Dozen Aid Suppliers to #Syria Found to be #Corrupt -
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/6512-u-s-cuts-ties-with-a-dozen-aid-suppliers-to-syria-found-to-be-corrupt …
via @OCCRP

[OUTLAW 09]

W. #Aleppo: Rebels announce they repelled an attempt by #SDF-#YPG to progress towards Darat Izza.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.284412&lon=36.847458&z=11&m#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express....

ВМФ #ЧФ Locomotives of the #Syrian Express... Vologda-50 & Kyzyl-60 #Russian #Navy.May 26,2017 #Sevastopol.

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA News @FSAPlatform
#Infographic || #Syria

List of militia currently fighting for the #Assad regime in the Syrian Desert - Al Badia

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA Shuhada al-Qaryatayn pledge to fight foreign Shia occupation forces w/ the same determination they fought #ISIS

[OUTLAW 09]

The Red Crescent tents, provided by #Assad regime to Shiite militias in the Syrian #Badia (Shiite Jaafari Force). At the Iraqi-Syrianborder

Daraa: Rebels targeted last night a convoy of Regime reinforcements on #Damascus-#Daraa highway with a barrage of Grad rockets.

Large number of knocked out regime equipment everywhere on the Aleppo road(Khanasir-ithriya)

[OUTLAW 09]

N. #Hama: crops around Kafr Nabuda on fire after targeted by Regime artillery. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.427106&lon=36.486969&z=11&m#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Captured Humvees and Russian command vehicle in Syria: Possible connection of ISIS and Russian special forces?
https://informnapalm.org/en/captured-humvees-and-russian-command-vehicle-in-syria-possible-connection-of-isis-and-russian-special-forces/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: #FSA shelling pro-#Assad forces in the Southern #Syria|n Desert with Grad rockets. Near #Zaza Checkpoint.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.814311&lon=37.883863&z=14&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

And the US not anticipated Turkish confrontation is about to occur.....

Fulya zerkan @FulyaOzerkan
#Turkey says #US arming of #Syrian Kurdish militia 'extremely dangerous' @AFP

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express......

Russian Gov chartered,flag Ro-Ro Alexandr Tkachenko transited #Tartus #Syria bound Bosphorus carrying 2dozen+military KamAZ & Ural trucks

[OUTLAW 09]

Editor of local paper in Berdsk, Russia gets threats after reporting burial of Russian killed in Syria
https://www.svoboda.org/a/28520193.html

[OUTLAW 09]

S. #Syria: up-to-date satellite image shows encampment of #Iran|ian-backed forces in Zaza checkpoint.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.814454&lon=37.883606&z=14&m#

[OUTLAW 09]

Large Regime convoy with armor reached #Daraa for upcoming offensive. Reports say it included #Russia|n vehicles.

[OUTLAW 09]

And the US not anticipated Turkish confrontation is about to occur.....

Fulya zerkan @FulyaOzerkan
#Turkey says #US arming of #Syrian Kurdish militia 'extremely dangerous' @AFP

Tone is getting harder now .....

Turkey's top security council blasts the U.S., says aiding Syrian Kurdish fighters is incompatible with alliance and friendship.

[Azor]

1. SDF claims that they will not allow a land bridge between the PMU and the government to curb Iranian influence (https://twitter.com/SyrianLense/status/869915918054420480)

2. Ongoing infighting between rebel factions in north Aleppo countryside (Euphrates Shield): Ahrar al-Sham says some groups plotting against it (https://twitter.com/ajaltamimi/status/869877033039527937)

3. Fighting over Al-Zaza Checkpoint between the Free Syrian Army Eastern Lions and pro-Assad forces:


The FSA-EL assaulted pro-Assad positions with Grad rockets
Russia responded with airstrikes
Pro-Assad forces fled toward Al-Seen Airbase
Pro-Assad positions destroyed, vehicles in flames, FSA-EL collecting bodies of Iranian militiamen
Al-Zaza Checkpoint captured


4. Russian military says warned US, Turkey, and Israel before launching four cruise missile attacks on Daesh in Palmyra. Russia claims successful hits on all targets (https://twitter.com/danielsschearf/status/869809453620760576)

This is curious, given that I would not expect any of the warned parties to have assets at Palmyra...

[OUTLAW 09]

Reports Iran-back Iraqi militias crossed Syrian border, captured villages from SDF
Iraqi Hashd PMUs has entered Syrian Land and have captured Qasibah and Al-Bawari and these areas are under SDF control

A showdown is looming between the US, Iran, and the Assad regime at the Syria-Iraq border
http://read.bi/2rbZvYF

[OUTLAW 09]

Updated map shows FSA progress in their counteroffensive.

[OUTLAW 09]

CNN Trk ENG
✔
@CNNTURK_ENG
BREAKING Dogan News Agency reports contact lost with Turkish military helicopter near Iraqi border, in #Şırnak near #Şenoba.

Turkey: Army helicopter crashed in #Sirnak Province near the #Iraq|i border. #PKK claims that they have shot down the helicopter.

Turkish Military confirms 13 dead in military helicopter crash near Iraqi border, in Şırnak Şenoba

[Azor]

The War Zone at The Drive: http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/10935/usaf-fought-isis-with-the-wrong-bombs-and-tactics-for-months

By Joseph Trevithick on May 31, 2017:


No matter how well prepared a military is, it’s never easy to shift direction rapidly to respond to new threats. One U.S. Air Force briefing suggests Pentagon’s rush to counter ISIS in Iraq and Syria sent the service scrambling to find the right mix of tactics and weapons, with nearly 20 percent of its bombs failing to achieve the desired effect within the first four months of the bombing campaign and potentially contributing to an ongoing shortfall of certain bombs and missiles.

On Aug. 7, 2014, the United States kicks off air strikes against the brutal terrorists in Iraq, beginning attacks on its members in neighboring Syria the following month. But between August and November 2014, the Air Force saw between 11 and 19 percent of weapons either not have the intended effect or not detonate entirely, according to a briefing Air Force Major Brian Baker gave at the National Defense Industry Association’s Precision Strike Annual Review in March 2017. At the time, Baker was one of the American representatives at the multi-national Air and Space Interoperability Council, which included individuals from all of the so-called “Five Eyes” countries – the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

The main reason for this was that the Air Force had initially shifted forces from Afghanistan, who had been primarily providing close air support and other counter-insurgency type missions, to the new fight in Iraq, he explained. By comparison, the situation in Iraq and Syria was “more similar to air interdiction – disguised as CAS [close air support].”

In general, CAS is supposed to describe strikes on targets that are actively engaged with friendly forces on the ground. Interdiction refers to attacks on the enemy before they get to an actual battle. Baker’s description matches up with what a public affairs officer for Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve told me about aerial missions against ISIS all the way back in January 2015. At that time, there was some confusion in the official categorization of the missions.

Iraqi or Kurdish troops and vetted Syrian rebels only needed to be “in proximity” to ISIS fighters – sometimes miles away – for the Air Force to count the strike CAS, the official acknowledged. “It is sometimes the case that sorties tasked for CAS may wind up supporting strikes that look more like interdiction, or vice versa.”

Though perhaps a pedantic difference to many people, this confusion in roles had a direct impact on the kinds of weapons Air Force multi-role fighters, bombers, ground attack aircraft, and drones carried on each sortie. In his presentation, Baker identified three particular systems were major contributors to the early problems, the GBU-38(V)4/B and 5/B Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bombs and the DSU-33/B proximity sensor.

The two JDAM types are a GPS guidance kit attached to the BLU-126/B Low Collateral Damage Bomb (LCDB) and BLU-129/B Very Low Collateral Damage Bomb (VLCDB) respectively. These 500-pound class warheads both cause damage within a relatively small blast radius compared to full-power weapons. The DSU-33/B triggers the bomb’s fuze to air burst above the targets, showering them in shrapnel.

Combining the DSU-33 and either the LCDB or VLCDB creates a munition that is precise, deadly against enemy personnel who are either entirely exposed or with no cover above, and safe enough for pilots to drop in relative proximity to friendly forces. In short, it’s a great option for supporting troops on the ground in the midst of a protracted firefight who might desperately need air support.

But once engaged against ISIS, the Air Force found itself interdicting a “drastically different target set,” Baker noted. This included large structures, bridges, armored vehicles, and other hard targets, rather than just lightly armed insurgents in the open. Peppering these targets with a burst of fragments might rattle the occupants, but couldn’t incapacitate them or destroy their cover. If the proximity fuze had a delay in detecting an object or didn’t sense anything due to a low impact angle, the weapon might not go off at all. On top of that, the bombs wouldn’t have been useful at all for knocking out tanks, bridges, or tunnels.

The Air Force had begun to respond to these problems by the end of 2014, most notably starting to use 2,000-pound class GBU-31/B JDAMs. These weapons often had the BLU-109/B penetrating warhead, which could break through the roof of a concrete building before exploding within for maximum damage. The service quickly decided to save weapons like the GBU-38(V)4/B and 5/B “for expected urban fights” such as the liberation of Fallujah and Mosul, Baker added.

The Air Force appears to have resolved this initial mismatch, but the experience is likely to be a teachable moment. On top of that, the lessons learned may extend to procurement practices and broader planning for future conflicts. Though Baker does not implicitly make the connection in his brief, the problems he describes, including an existing inventory primarily structured around ongoing operations in Afghanistan and limited reserve stocks, could have been contributing factors to an ongoing bomb shortage.

Notably, his presentation also pointed out that the fight against ISIS had seen a dramatic increase in the service’s use of GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB), a light 250-pound class GPS-guided glide bomb, as well as Hellfire missiles. These small weapons would have been again most useful against small groups of insurgents in the open, crew served weapons and other fighting emplacements, and light vehicles. The Air Force felt stockpiles of both munitions were “healthy” as of March 2014, but the campaign in Iraq and Syria put its inventory of both “on glide path to zero.”

The F-15E Strike Eagle and F-16C Viper multi-role fighters can both carry the SDB. The service’s MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones have historically been the main platforms for employing the Hellfire. In addition, Air Force Special Operations Command’s AC-130W Stinger II gunships, which have been spotted in action against ISIS, can launch both weapons.

As of 2017, other types of GBU-38s, with standard high-explosive warheads, along with the GBU-31s and 1,000-pound class GBU-32/B JDAMs, continue to be the most common weapons the Air force employs in Iraq and Syria. U.S. aircraft have been routinely carrying the 500-pound GBU-12/B Paveway laser-guided bombs and GBU-58/B dual-mode Laser JDAM, as well. As of November 2016, American aviators – whether from the Air Force, Navy, or Marine Corps – had not dropped any more specialized JDAMs with BLU-118/B or BLU-121/B thermobaric or BLU-121/B deep-penetrating bunker busting warheads, though there is some indication these have since seen use during the Mosul offensive. However, with over 51,000 bombs and missiles expended in total by that point, the Pentagon was reportedly digging into war reserves in Europe and Asia to make up for the shortfall regardless.

So, it’s not particularly surprising that the U.S. military’s proposed budget for the 2018 fiscal year includes a significant increase in spending on munitions. The Pentagon’s plan includes more than $874 million for more than 34,500 JDAM guidance kits, almost $714 million for over 7,600 Hellfires, and another approximately $504 million for more than 7,300 SDBs. In all, the full budget includes more than $16 billion in funds for missiles, bombs, and other ammunition.

“For munitions…, we remain challenged by the pace of current operations,” Air Force Major General James Martin Jr, the service’s Assistant Deputy Secretary for Budget, told reporters during the proposal’s rollout on May 23, 2017. “Based on current demand…, we will put an emphasis on replenishing our weapons inventory.”

With this in mind, the Air Force and the rest of the U.S. military will probably have to focus on just making sure there are enough munitions to continue its existing missions before moving on to see whether future purchases realistically take into account future crises.

[OUTLAW 09]

French investigative weekly cites french intelligence saying Russian PMC OSM/Wagner has 1,500 men engaged in Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

E. #Homs: fierce clashes btwn pro-Assad & #ISIS on Abbasiyah front S. of #Palmyra. IS claims SVBIED detonated, BMP + 2 bull. destr. w/ #ATGM

[OUTLAW 09]

Confirmed by SOHR: Iraqi Hashd PMUs have withdrawn from the villages that they have captured yesterday from ISIS in Hasakah countryside

[OUTLAW 09]

I will be backing out of posting here as I have been tracking Syria for a number of years and now with the full US tilt to Putin, Iran and the PKK......this support to a US named terrorist group PKK will place the US on a confrontation path that will in the end be far more damaging to the US that IS sitting in Raqqa has been...

Never thought I would see the day that American FP fights with three US named terrorist groups against one terrorist group..."a tad of hypocrisy"....

It will in the end literally drag the US into ME turmoil for the coming decades and what we see in the Trump WH is that YES they claim to want to limit Iran in both Iraq and Syria...but as long as Russia as Irans and Assads "protector" is in play and with the overt Trump support for Russia...nothing will actually occur in limiting Iran and thus nothing will change in Syria and the killing will just continue.....

Russia has "won" their "political war against the US" and it is about time many in DC smell the coffee and see the "win" .....as it is in front of their noses and not hard to miss....

Crowbat and myself have posted more than enough background materials to be able to judge the effectiveness of the Trump ME FP or lack thereof........and Trump owns this war no longer Obama WHAT many tend to forget....

[Azor]

I will be backing out of posting here as I have been tracking Syria for a number of years and now with the full US tilt to Putin, Iran and the PKK...this support to a US named terrorist group PKK will place the US on a confrontation path that will in the end be far more damaging to the US that IS sitting in Raqqa has been...

Never thought I would see the day that American FP fights with three US named terrorist groups against one terrorist group..."a tad of hypocrisy"...

It will in the end literally drag the US into ME turmoil for the coming decades and what we see in the Trump WH is that YES they claim to want to limit Iran in both Iraq and Syria...but as long as Russia as Irans and Assads "protector" is in play and with the overt Trump support for Russia...nothing will actually occur in limiting Iran and thus nothing will change in Syria and the killing will just continue...

Russia has "won" their "political war against the US" and it is about time many in DC smell the coffee and see the "win"...as it is in front of their noses and not hard to miss...

CrowBat and myself have posted more than enough background materials to be able to judge the effectiveness of the Trump ME FP or lack thereof...and Trump owns this war no longer Obama WHAT many tend to forget...

Your opinion is noted, however, much will depend upon the aftermath of the fall of Raqqa.

In 2014, the United States partnered with Iraqi Shia militias that it had fought from 2006-2008, as well as Iranian special forces and intelligence services that it has fought intermittently in Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere since the 1980s.

The rather myopic Western focus on Al Qaeda and Daesh reminds me of the “Europe First” wartime focus of the Western democracies. Within the European Theater, whole countries were sacrificed to the Soviet Union from 1944 on, in order to concentrate on the most pressing threat: Germany. Thus, for tens of millions of Europeans, World War II continued for another half-century after the crowds in Times and Trafalgar Squares celebrated.

Similarly, Al Qaeda and Daesh are considered the primary threats to the West, whereas the PKK is considered more of a Turkish-specific threat and Hezbollah an Israeli-specific threat.

Your refrain about Trump enabling Khamenei is noted, however, I would counter that Trump’s predecessors, including Obama, Bush Jr., and indeed Reagan, were more amenable to Iranian objectives.

Thus far, I would say that the current policy in the Middle East is a continuation of the previous administration’s, albeit with greater flexibility to respond to developments i.e. far less concern for Iranian sensitivities. Yet we are less than half a year in…

As regards American “hypocrisy” over the PKK, I would put the burden of responsibility more on Turkey than the United States. After all, it was Turkey which decided early on that Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria was worse than Daesh’s expansion, and acted accordingly. Now that Turkey is facing blowback for its actions and inaction, you and CrowBat would have the campaign against Daesh halted for what? For the Free Syrian Army to take over the campaign, which it will not so long as Assad is in the field? For Operation Euphrates Shield to conquer Raqqa, which it currently cannot without defeating Assad and the YPG first?

I suggest that you read the opinions of Kadercan, Stein, Natali and others, on how Erdogan worsened the mess he now finds himself in...

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian servicemen of 2nd Tamanskaya Motor Rifle Division fighting in Syria
https://informnapalm.org/en/servicemen-2nd-tamanskaya-motor-rifle-division-fighting-syria/#

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING
The #AssadPutin air force bombs the #FSA's anti-#ISIS front in #Tafas.
Reports of dead & wounded among civilians & rebels.

[OUTLAW 09]

Assad SU22 shot down..pilot is confirmed dead....

S. #Syria: #SyAF warplane downed today by #FSA in SE #Damascus province turned to be a Mig-23

[OUTLAW 09]

I had posted this photo of a small Syrian boy who had been pulled from a Russian bombed building by SCD sitting in a western donated ambulance inside Aleppo..He is now with his family in Germany.....

Dear #AssadPutin propaganda

Greetings from Germany,

ProAssad and Putin trolling still as active as ever....

[Azor]

https://twitter.com/CSISMidEast/status/871779149525995521

Selected excerpts from CSIS' October 2016 (https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/161019_Gulf_States_Policies_on_Syria.pdf) report:

Qatar’s policy shift coincided with increasing levels of violence in Syria, which the UN Security Council, Russia, and Turkey all condemned. In the first week of August 2011, Kuwait, the GCC, and then Saudi Arabia followed suit, seeing
the change in international opinion as the opportune time to join those publicly denouncing the Syrian regime. Qatar seized advantage of the growing international consensus on Syria and its temporary leadership of the Arab League to lead diplomatic offensives against Assad. After hosting a meeting of Syrian opposition figures, Qatar formulated a plan for Assad to hand power to a deputy, and then pushed forward a proposal to send Arab League monitors into Syria.

The stage was set for a more dramatic GCC policy shift seeking to upend the status quo. In the summer of 2011 all apart from Oman enthusiastically embraced factions of the Syrian opposition, wagering that Assad would be the next Middle East leader to fall. However, Assad did not fall quickly, and GCC members’ apparent unity on Syria policy was short-lived.

Initially, the greatest divide between the Gulf states emerged over the issue of which opposition groups to back. Different Gulf states’ sponsorship of opposition groups reflected their varying motives for toppling Assad.

From 2011 to 2014, the principal split was between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and this divide had a profound impact on the trajectory of the conflict. The Qatari-Turkish relationship, a relative constant throughout the conflict, solidified early when Qatar embraced the Syrian National Council (SNC) which was the first credible opposition umbrella group and one that Turkey helped create.

Qatar nurtured its networks in the Muslim Brotherhood and funneled financial support through middlemen to make the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood one of the most powerful actors in the SNC. This policy troubled Qatar’s Gulf neighbors, which feared the Brotherhood’s rise in Egypt and elsewhere in the region. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE instead favored opposition groups considered to be more moderate, having fewer ties to salafi-jihadists. In doing so, they coordinated with Jordan and the United States more than with Turkey. One example of this coordination was the establishment of a joint military operations room in Jordan that hosted Jordanian, U.S., and Saudi officers.

By the end of 2012, infighting among the Syrian rebels, largely fueled by competition for external funding, crippled the opposition’s effectiveness and prompted renewed international calls for unity. In a sign that the balance of power had started to shift away from Qatar’s Syrian allies, Brigadier General Salim Idriss emerged as chief of staff of the Free Syrian Army after days of debates in Istanbul. His promises to protect Syria’s minorities won him Western backing, and with Saudi Arabia and the UAE also agreeing to channel funding through him, there were hopes that the opposition would unite.

However, private individuals from the Gulf, including many Qataris, continued to sponsor individual brigades Although there is no evidence that the Qatari state ever intended to fund extremist groups in Syria such as Jabhat
al-Nusra or the Islamic State group (ISG), the gradual radicalization of opposition groups in 2013 meant that some of those that had formerly benefited from Qatari sponsorship joined extremist groups.

In December 2013, for example, Saddam al-Jamal, a top Free Syrian Army commander in eastern Syria who reported having received Qatari support, announced his defection to the ISG. Saudi Arabia was beginning to realize that unity in Gulf policy on Syria was crucial to achieving its interests.

As the Syrian conflict grew more overtly sectarian, tensions between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors increased, with reports circulating that Qatar was funding Ahrar al-Sham and other salafi-jihadi groups in Syria.

Ahrar al-Sham is a militant salafi group that aims to replace Bashar al-Assad’s rule with an Islamist government, and has mainly operated in northern Syria throughout the conflict. In response, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar in March 2014.

This move was partly motivated by the stated concerns for internal security within the Gulf, but it was also an attempt to coerce Qatar to change its policy in Syria. Saudi Arabia was beginning to realize that unity in Gulf policy on Syria was crucial to achieving its interests, since it did not consider its other allies to be pulling their weight.

[Azor]

https://twitter.com/Oriana0214/status/872157407207706626


JUST IN via @CENTCOM: US-led coalition today destroyed additional pro-Syrian regime forces inside de-confliction zone in southern Syria.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBqGwkRUAAAaept.jpg:large

[OUTLAW 09]

Iran|ian-backed militia in #Syria threatening to attack #US positions "if #Washington crossed red lines".

Iran ups ante vs @CJTFOIR publishes alleged video of drone over #Tanaf #Syria says: "We can shoot you down anytime but we have pity on you"

[OUTLAW 09]

Wow...who would have though this..certainly not Trump nor his NSC and CENTCOM.....

BREAKING: ANHA news agency now confirms Syrian government 'launched an attack' with heavy weapons on SDF south of Maskana, west of #Raqqa.

Last night #SAA struck #SDF positions south of Maksana town with artillery fire

If confirmed, the growing competition between US-backed and Iranian-backed forces for the control of eastern #Syria just escalated

Several unconfirmed reports suggest a regime warplane struck Kurdish-led forces fighting #ISIS southwest of Tabqah #Syria

Clashes reported between Kurdish Asayish forces and regime fighters in Hasakah #Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #FSA shelling #YPG in northeastern #Aleppo last night.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.655200&lon=38.069687&z=12&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

Iranian proxies in Syria ratchet up rhetoric against US and threaten to hit American positions after 2 air strikes:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKBN18Y17H#

[Azor]

Hassan Hassan: http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/the-question-now-is-how-not-if-qatar-will-change#full


When the former emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa, handed over power to his son in June 2013, many in the Gulf hoped the transition would herald a new beginning for Qatar’s relationship with its neighbours. Since the Arab uprisings two years earlier, Doha had played an outsize role in changing the geopolitical map of the region to the detriment of its neighbours’ interests. It aligned itself with what seemed to be the primary benefactors of the new Arab world, namely the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists.

By the time Sheikh Tamim took over, the regional standing of Islamists appeared to be declining. The perception then was that the new emir was poised to lead a foreign policy transition too, away from the divisive ways of his father. Chatter in the Gulf suggested that Sheikh Tamim was close to the Saudi royal court before his ascent to power, unlike his father who captured power in a coup in 1995 and pursued a truculent policy to rival his larger neighbour.


A test of the optimism came a week after he took office, with the removal of Mohammed Morsi, Egypt’s Islamist president. The rift between Qatar, on one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on the other, deepened. For several months, Sheikh Tamim insisted that he wanted to keep the Qatari foreign policy in synch with that of its neighbours. The problem, the Saudis and Emiratis were told, was that the new emir could not reverse policies overnight.


Attempts to settle differences behind closed doors failed. In March 2014, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Manama recalled their ambassadors from Doha in protest at what they described as policies that threatened regional stability. The public move was uncharacteristic of Gulf politics, and citizens and expatriates immediately realised, without necessarily knowing the details, that the feud must have been too deep for those countries to take such an action publicly.


The four countries resumed talks and Qatar bowed down the following month to a set of demands. The demands included refraining from undermining another country’s security, interests and safety; reining in media outlets critical of the Gulf countries; cessation of support to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Houthis; putting an end to Qatar’s naturalisation of nationals of other Gulf countries. (Qatar was accused of providing Qatari citizenship, besides financial support, to Islamist oppositionists from other Gulf countries.)


Qatar was given a three-month period to prove its compliance. Authorities there deported Islamist figures previously domiciled in Doha, and supposedly took steps to roll back its support for Islamists in Libya, Syria, Yemen and the Gulf. Youssef Al Qaradawi, a senior Egyptian cleric and the nominal spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, stopped giving Friday sermons for a few weeks. The row was visibly contained.


Until Monday. The three Gulf states announced unprecedented measures against Qatar, severing diplomatic ties and shutting down all land, air and sea crossings. The rigorous action was accompanied by equally unprecedented media attacks: "Qatari opposition" called for Sheikh Tamim’s removal and the establishment of a "national accord government", no doubt an ironic echoing of calls made by Qatar’s proxies during the Arab uprisings.


The rhetoric is more serious and damaging than the economic and diplomatic measures, as anyone familiar with Gulf politics will recognise.

What happened between 2014 and Monday to warrant such action? Why now? There was no such thing as a spark. As described by an official familiar with the process, the situation escalated over time, specifically since January 2015, when King Salman took office. The new king subsequently inaugurated a new approach to engage Qatar.


Riyadh reset its relations with Qatar, and began a dialogue to resolve all outstanding issues. The Saudis also pushed the more sceptical UAE to do the same, especially since the 2014 agreement led nowhere anyway. The new approach, according to the official, emboldened the Qataris, who felt the pressure was off to revert to old policies. The timing of the reset may have also indicated to Qatar that Riyadh was too stretched in Yemen, and preoccupied with the effort to counter Iran under the Trump presidency, to pick a fight with pro-Islamist Qatar.


Tension was coming to a head for some time and what officials describe as "unacceptable behaviour" by Qatar increased recently. Whenever confronted, officials say, Qatar would deny and obfuscate. Media attacks emanating from Doha-funded outlets noticeably heightened in recent months. Riyadh, per the public statement, also accused the Qataris of supporting Shia Islamists in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's eastern region.


A combination of factors led the Gulf states to act against Qatar at this time. The American unease about Qatar’s role in the financing of extremist organisations in the Middle East, and the momentum of the Riyadh-Washington relationship, meant that if there was a time to attempt to change Qatar’s behaviour, it was now.

Each of the Gulf states has its own reasons for escalating against Qatar, with the common denominator being the support of Shia and Sunni Islamists against their interests. For now, the Qatari emir’s immediate concern is to demonstrate strength before his people — as indicated by his ceremonial Ramadan iftar with Al Qaradawi on Monday. But Qatar’s priority will no doubt be to seek a de-escalation as soon as possible, while the Gulf powers are determined to change Doha’s behaviour. The question is how, not if, it will be changed.

[Azor]

Russian sources today claim that the SDF is colluding with Daesh by forging an agreement where Daesh has safe passage to withdraw from Raqqa. Turkish sources have twisted that story to denounce the PKK/PYD as colluding with Daesh.

Anadolu: http://aa.com.tr/en/europe/russia-says-daesh-struck-pyd-pkk-deal-to-leave-raqqah/838402

TASS: http://tass.com/defense/950769

[OUTLAW 09]

Hassan Hassan: http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/the-question-now-is-how-not-if-qatar-will-change#full

Question is if the story is correct that Trump had a private series of discussions with KSA leaders when he sent all of his aides out of the room...

We have seen this move before with Comey have we not??...SO what did Trump actually promise KSA for their moves on Qatar...weapons, money and or natural gas???? OR all three?

[OUTLAW 09]

Civilians in #DayrHafir, captured by "the glorious Syrian Arab Army" from #ISIS, are now forced to pray under #IRAN's flag.

[OUTLAW 09]

At least two secret rounds of talks between Russian and U.S.officials on establishing de-escalation zones in Syria
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-in-talks-with-moscow-on-syria-safe-zone-1497043492?mod=e2tw#

SO Putin and Trump are actually linking up as Putin has planned all along....

[OUTLAW 09]

Kremlin regime yesterday: "The war in Syria is over."
#Syria this morning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq1I9ZLftwQ#

[OUTLAW 09]

Unconfirmed reports agains suggest regime warplanes struck the Kurdish-led SDF positions west of Tabqah Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Report: #USAF bombing #Assad-convoy west of #Tabqa according to "#Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently"
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.795678&lon=38.291731&z=14&m=b#

[Azor]

From Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-usa-idUSKBN1910Y9?il=0

Russia said on Saturday it had told the United States it was unacceptable for Washington to strike pro-government forces in Syria after the U.S. military carried out an air strike on pro-Assad militia last month.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov relayed the message to U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in a phone call on Saturday initiated by the U.S. side, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

U.S. officials told Reuters last month that the U.S. military carried out the air strike against militia supported by the government of President Bashar al-Assad which it said posed a threat to U.S. forces and U.S.-backed Syrian fighters in the country's south.

Russia said at the time that the U.S. action would hamper efforts to find a political solution to the conflict and had violated the sovereignty of Syria, one of Russia's closest Middle East allies.

"Lavrov expressed his categorical disagreement with the U.S. strikes on pro-government forces and called on him to take concrete measures to prevent similar incidents in future," the ministry said.

The two men had also exchanged assessments of the situation in Syria, it added, and confirmed their desire to step up co-operation to try to end the conflict there.

The ministry said Lavrov and Tillerson had also discussed the need to try to mend the rift between Qatar and other Arab nations through negotiations, and had talked about the state of U.S.-Russia relations and planned meetings between officials from the two countries.

[Azor]

Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russia-fair-weather-friend-syrias-kurds/
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 15 Issue: 11
By: James Pothecary


In the kaleidoscopic, ever-shifting array of factions that characterize the Syrian civil war, allegiances can shift in surprising ways. Nowhere is this more evident than in the relationship between Russia and the Kurds.

In theory, the two sides should be diametrically opposed. Moscow is heavily invested in supporting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Assad’s forces oppose the self-proclaimed Kurdish territory of Rojava, located in the northern governorates of al-Hasakh, Aleppo and Raqqa (now renamed by the Kurds as the cantons of Afrin, Jazira and Kobani).

However, with the eventual military defeat of IS in Syria, or in the event of a de-escalation with NATO, Moscow’s own priorities will shift and Rojava will likely find itself in the scope of the Russian military machine. Should IS’ de facto capital of Raqqa fall to government forces, for instance, Russia is highly likely to withdraw its backing for Rojava, just as the Kurdish territory becomes a greater priority for Syrian forces.

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrian opposition rep in Moscow drops the hammer on live-TV calling Russian advances in Syria as their propaganda.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkurBWRdtEs#

[OUTLAW 09]

Sweida : Residents took 11 Regime security members hostage and are burning tires in front of police HQ demanding an activist be released.

[SWJ Blog]

On Syria Fronts, US-Backed Forces Probe Raqqa Defenses, Iran-Allied Fighters Gain Key Foothold (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/on-syria-fronts-us-backed-forces-probe-raqqa-defenses-iran-allied-fighters-gain-key-foothold)

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/on-syria-fronts-us-backed-forces-probe-raqqa-defenses-iran-allied-fighters-gain-key-foothold) and make any comments at the SWJ Blog (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

An acerbic commentary by Aaron Stein on the situation on Syria's southern border @ Tanf. The second paragraph:
Yet, despite efforts to portray these strikes as one-off reactions to Syrian backed provocations, the attacks risk expanding the goals of the military campaign, currently aimed solely at defeating the Islamic State. America’s use of military force appears to be unfolding independent of any broader strategic or political guidance. It is not clear how these actions align with broader foreign policy goals. This lack of clarity allows tactical decisions (i.e., the need to protect U.S. forces) to dictate strategy. In this case, the purported link between the militias struck and Iran, the most important backer of Syria’s Bashar al Assad, risks a broader escalation — perhaps one that some hawkish voices in the Trump administration would welcome.

The conclusion:
Strategy should drive tactics when it comes to handling Iranian-backed elements in Syria, not the other way around. Otherwise, the United States risks upending other elements of the war effort in Syria for ill-defined reasons. This may include expanding the role of an already over stretched Special Operations Command and more wear and tear (https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Wilson-Goldfein_06-06-17.pdf) on other elements of the U.S. military (http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/best-in-the-world-nope-in-fact-our-small-units-are-no-longer-as-well-trained-as-those-of-our-allies-reports-this-army-captain/) — all for ill-defined and unachievable goals. The United States has the capability to defend a garrison in the Syrian desert. However, the reasons for doing so are devoid of any purpose, making a simple cost benefit analysis all but impossible.
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/06/the-trouble-with-tanf-tactics-driving-strategy-in-syria/

Where is Tanf?
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Screenshot_1-2.jpg?x250

From:https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-in-20-km-from-al-tanf-town-controlled-by-us-led-forces-reports/

[OUTLAW 09]

A (suspected) #Jordan|ian SOF @leonardo_live "Falco" drone was photographed during #AssadPutin air strikes on #Daraa city.

[OUTLAW 09]

An acerbic commentary by Aaron Stein on the situation on Syria's southern border @ Tanf. The second paragraph:

The conclusion:
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/06/the-trouble-with-tanf-tactics-driving-strategy-in-syria/

Where is Tanf?
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Screenshot_1-2.jpg?x250

From:https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-in-20-km-from-al-tanf-town-controlled-by-us-led-forces-reports/

S. Syria: as Iranian-backed forces advancing in SE desert, US deployed long range artillery (~300 km) HIMARS in Al-Tanf.

[OUTLAW 09]

US-backed air strikes on IS "capital" Raqqa in Syria cause "staggering loss of civilian life" - UN investigators
http://bbc.in/2snA1Iz

[Azor]

An acerbic commentary by Aaron Stein on the situation on Syria's southern border @ Tanf. The second paragraph:

The conclusion:
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/06/the-trouble-with-tanf-tactics-driving-strategy-in-syria/

Where is Tanf?
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Screenshot_1-2.jpg?x250

From:https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-in-20-km-from-al-tanf-town-controlled-by-us-led-forces-reports/

TANF is Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, colloquially known as food stamps, and a U.S. welfare program.

Al-Tanf is a border crossing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Waleed_border_crossing

I usually agree with Stein, but not on this one. The focus on Daesh is myopic now as the Sunni Arabs will resist occupation and mass murder by Shias, and the PYD/YPG will soon turn its attention to Erdogan. Moreover, despite the lionization of the Kurds, Ankara, Baghdad, Damascus and Teheran all agree that Kurdish sovereignty is not in the best interests of their territorial integrity.

[Azor]

US-backed air strikes on IS "capital" Raqqa in Syria cause "staggering loss of civilian life" - UN investigators
http://bbc.in/2snA1Iz

Yawn. The civilians of Raqqa are being treated with much more consideration than those of Dresden, Tokyo, Hanoi or even Normandy...

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia|n-trained "ISIS Hunters" cmdr: after ISIS, time to kick out US from Syria and go to #Raqqa. Full vid:
https://www.facebook.com/ISISHuntersOfficial2.0/videos/1245588552176651/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Yawn. The civilians of Raqqa are being treated with much more consideration than those of Dresden, Tokyo, Hanoi or even Normandy...

AND for every killed by US and CENTCOM non member of IS in Raqqa you will have a new IS member as that their way to fight back against the US for killing their family members....

IF you check one of the statements made by the Manchester bomber...he did it for the killing by US of Syrians...

[OUTLAW 09]

Qassem Soleimani allegedly spotted in Syria near the Iraqi border | FDD's Long War Journal
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/06/qassem-soleimani-spotted-in-syria-near-the-iraqi-border.php?utm_content=bufferc8be6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Photos show US joint patrols with rebels in southern Syria:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/06/photos-show-us-joint-patrols-with-rebels-in-southern-syria.php

[Azor]

AND for every killed by US and CENTCOM non member of IS in Raqqa you will have a new IS member as that their way to fight back against the US for killing their family members....

IF you check one of the statements made by the Manchester bomber...he did it for the killing by US of Syrians...

Muslim supremacists always have excuses for why they want to kill or forcibly convert others. All supremacists claim that they are victims and acting defensively.

Perhaps the angry Muslims in the West can return to their prosperous, free and secure homelands and take out their frustrations on those that oppress their co-religionists i.e. other Muslims. Now that is a radical idea...

[OUTLAW 09]

Muslim supremacists always have excuses for why they want to kill or forcibly convert others. All supremacists claim that they are victims and acting defensively.

Perhaps the angry Muslims in the West can return to their prosperous, free and secure homelands and take out their frustrations on those that oppress their co-religionists i.e. other Muslims. Now that is a radical idea...

AGAIN you truly miss the point.....I saw this up close and personal WHICH you have not...in Iraq a large number of normally apolitical Sunnis joined either the Islamic Army of Iraq IAI or AQI simply out of nationalistic reasons...the US invaded my country OR out of hatred for US killing family members...OR the US kicked me out of the Iraqi Army thus I did not get my military pension that I was working towards OR they destroyed by bombing the factory where I worked and now I have no job......

That has nothing to do with your incorrect use of a newly minted right wing term "Muslim supremacists".....

Notice you rarely use the term "white nationalists and or white supremacists" when referring to say a Bannon, Miller who sit in the WH and or Trump with many of his blatantly racist comments towards say Mexicans and or Muslims....AND more recently Federal judges...

Your comments sometimes swing in a wide arch of the political spectrum do they not????

[OUTLAW 09]

US-led airstrikes in Syria killed 300 civilians, including 200 inside a school, & displaced 160,000, UN panel says.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/world/middleeast/syria-airstrikes-civilians.html?smid=tw-share#

So Azor...you are a combat aged Syrian husband who has not up to now fought for any side and attempted to remain neutral and protect his family...basically trying to survive......you come home and see your house destroyed and your family killed by US bombs...and your response it what...????

You will in the situation equate Assad, Putin and Trump as one and the same and you will listen intently to what IS or the FSA says....

[OUTLAW 09]

HOW is that new Trump FP for Syria and Qatar working out these days??

SecDef Mattis says "pro regime" forces that have moved into S. Syria near #AnTanf base are actually #Russian ...

[Azor]

Earlier you claimed:


...for every killed by US and CENTCOM non member of IS in Raqqa you will have a new IS member as that their way to fight back against the US for killing their family members...IF you check one of the statements made by the Manchester bomber...he did it for the killing by US of Syrians...

In response, I will guide you to today’s quote on the front page of SWJ (http://smallwarsjournal.com/) from Alaa al-Ameri:


Abedi was not disenfranchised. He was not rejected by British society. He was taught to reject and hate it, despite everything it gave him and his family. His older sister has reportedly said that Abedi was looking for ‘revenge’ for the ‘ill-treatment’ of Muslims in the UK and Syria. This is the circular logic of the Islamist victimhood narrative that almost every Muslim growing up in the UK will have been exposed to at one time or another. Western governments, and therefore Western societies, are to blame for all instances of intervention in Muslim majority countries, and are equally culpable should they fail to intervene.

This was excerpted from al-Ameri’s article at Spiked: http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/why-salman-abedi-grew-to-hate-us/19866#.WULJB9crKUk

Your discussion of the folly of de-Ba’athification is wholly irrelevant here. The Sunni Arab Iraqis who turned on U.S. forces – following their dismissal from the military, police and civil service, their political marginalization by way of an imposed democratic structure (facing a possibly tyranny of the Shia majority), and their consequent loss of the spoils of oil and gas in Kurdish and Shia hands – did so in Iraq.

The term “Muslim supremacism” is one that I began using because we do not refer to “White terrorism” or “White-ism”.

The worst Muslim supremacist terrorist attack on U.S. soil was prior to the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and Libya. Even if the U.S. withdrew from the Middle East, its support for Israel would be enough for Muslim supremacists to regard Americans as aggressors.

[OUTLAW 09]

Earlier you claimed:



In response, I will guide you to today’s quote on the front page of SWJ (http://smallwarsjournal.com/) from Alaa al-Ameri:



This was excerpted from al-Ameri’s article at Spiked: http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/why-salman-abedi-grew-to-hate-us/19866#.WULJB9crKUk

Your discussion of the folly of de-Ba’athification is wholly irrelevant here. The Sunni Arab Iraqis who turned on U.S. forces – following their dismissal from the military, police and civil service, their political marginalization by way of an imposed democratic structure (facing a possibly tyranny of the Shia majority), and their consequent loss of the spoils of oil and gas in Kurdish and Shia hands – did so in Iraq.

The term “Muslim supremacism” is one that I began using because we do not refer to “White terrorism” or “White-ism”.

The worst Muslim supremacist terrorist attack on U.S. soil was prior to the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and Libya. Even if the U.S. withdrew from the Middle East, its support for Israel would be enough for Muslim supremacists to regard Americans as aggressors.

Azor.....I really find it interesting that as someone who was never ever been in either Iraq and or AFG and or talked directly with just captured jihadis and then spent hours talking with them...you feel qualified to make these comments????

You really do not know what you are talking about....and this single sentence reflects that.....

If you took the time to read historically speaking everything printed back to the Ottoman empire and WW1 you might then understand that this underlying idea that the West has been beating up on Muslims and the West did not want us to be great nation states is a theme that is still there today.

IF you had talked with a former Iraqi ISI COL and Army officer who lost his salary and pension because of the US decision to disband the Army and Iraqi government organizations and now you have no money and no way to make money to support an extended family of say 14 and no food and then comes along a Sunni insurgent group and or AQI who offers you 1400 USDs per month to fight Americans..all you ask is where do I sign the contract.....I do not know how many jihadis who fought for AQI had little to no understanding of the Koran and or the Sunnahs and or the Shuras..but fighting for AQI at 1400 per month....was a go....

So before you race to such comments think it through and then ask yourself was I ever in the ME during the fighting and have I ever talked face to face with hardened jihadis.....

BTW a Ansar al Sunnah group leader a 26 year old Baghdad University trained vet who spoke a beautiful Arabic and perfect English led a 40 man group (Arab Sunni and Kurdish Sunni) that we rolled all up.... told me after talking with me for hours....

"Just because I talk with you and just because you do understand me and why I am fighting if I see you on the streets of Baqubah in the future I will kill you...."

BTW he was deadly serious....

Now lets compare experiences....and then lets see "who sees and understands"....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Mod is claiming in a Russian airstrike on Raqqa they killed Al-Baghaddi....

BUT no gun camera or drone footage to back this claim up with...

BREAKING: US-led coalition says there is no way to confirm Russian claim it may have killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi

Seriously doubt the claim as Baghdadi has been rumored to have left Raqqa weeks ago....and since the man works only face to face and via paper notes and personal couriers seriously doubt Russia could pinpoint his location...

He survived fives years of US prison at Bucca and has survived to now .....seriously doubt he lets the Russians know where he is....

[OUTLAW 09]

The Russian army publishes a wild, unverified and very unlikely claim and global media turns into parrots.

We MSM really don't learn ...

Russian version of MOD statement suggests the info on al-Bagdadi death (in Russian) "is being verified" bad English translation in their use of "is verified"...

[Azor]

Azor.....I really find it interesting that as someone who was never ever been in either Iraq and or AFG and or talked directly with just captured jihadis and then spent hours talking with them...you feel qualified to make these comments????

You really do not know what you are talking about....and this single sentence reflects that.....

If you took the time to read historically speaking everything printed back to the Ottoman empire and WW1 you might then understand that this underlying idea that the West has been beating up on Muslims and the West did not want us to be great nation states is a theme that is still there today.

IF you had talked with a former Iraqi ISI COL and Army officer who lost his salary and pension because of the US decision to disband the Army and Iraqi government organizations and now you have no money and no way to make money to support an extended family of say 14 and no food and then comes along a Sunni insurgent group and or AQI who offers you 1400 USDs per month to fight Americans..all you ask is where do I sign the contract.....I do not know how many jihadis who fought for AQI had little to no understanding of the Koran and or the Sunnahs and or the Shuras..but fighting for AQI at 1400 per month....was a go....

So before you race to such comments think it through and then ask yourself was I ever in the ME during the fighting and have I ever talked face to face with hardened jihadis.....

BTW a Ansar al Sunnah group leader a 26 year old Baghdad University trained vet who spoke a beautiful Arabic and perfect English led a 40 man group (Arab Sunni and Kurdish Sunni) that we rolled all up.... told me after talking with me for hours....

"Just because I talk with you and just because you do understand me and why I am fighting if I see you on the streets of Baqubah in the future I will kill you...."

BTW he was deadly serious....

Now lets compare experiences....and then lets see "who sees and understands"....

Firstly, are we discussing real or imagined grievances? Are these legitimate (desiring equality) or illegitimate (desiring supremacy)?

Secondly, are we discussing cognitive or emotional biases? Are Islamist terrorists in the West merely mistaken in their understanding of their professed religion or of history? Or do they choose the religious interpretation and historical conclusions that align with their feelings?

Thirdly, there is a vast gulf between a former Ba’athist Iraqi Army officer who lost his socio-political status and living standard due to the CPA, and decides to help take out a U.S. convoy, and the child of a Muslim refugee or migrant in Europe who feels like an outcast, and decides to plant a nail bomb in an open-air market.

Fourth, there is a tendency to equate terrorist violence which should be resisted.

All ideologies that underpin terrorism include egalitarian, supremacist, separatist and integrationist elements. For instance, the Protestant Loyalist/Unionist paramilitaries were both supremacist and integrationist as they did not want to cede their Catholic-inhabited areas to Ireland but also wanted to treat them as lesser citizens. Islamist terrorists tend to be separatist supremacists, given their predilection for killing over converting, and because Qtubis/Takfiris are focused more on “reforming” or revolutionizing Islamic societies than spreading Islam on the whole.

The Provisional IRA’s goals of forcing a British withdrawal from Northern Ireland as well as unification of the island were inherently supremacist given that the Protestants would find themselves facing a tyranny of the majority, in addition to reprisals – official or not – for centuries of injustice. Yet the conflict was ended because the British government forced both sides to accept an egalitarian outcome, and sadly one that “moderate” Catholics had been calling for in the 1960s.

Could Islamist terrorists in the West renounce violence? The issue of disorganization aside (who would one “call” to talk to Islamists in the West?), there is no oppression of Muslims that would warrant the level of terrorism that we are observing. This is the problem with supremacism: the only diplomatic or political “solution” would be to accede to the supremacists’ demands.

In addition, there are differences in how civilians fit into the terrorism: are the civilians the primary targets, incidental to indiscriminate attacks on combatants, or are civilian casualties to be avoided, and to what degree? Despite notable intentional and unintentional atrocities, the Catholic Republicans (specifically the PIRA), killed more combatants (police, military and intelligence) than civilians; the reverse is true of the UDA/UFV. Islamist terrorists in the West, whether affiliated or unaffiliated, tend to deliberately target civilians and seek to maximize civilian casualties.

Lastly, I have never claimed that the solution is to be found within religious texts. I regard “Muslims” as those that identify as Muslims and are widely perceived as such, not specifically those that follow the texts. Theory and practice are very, very different, and Augustine of Hippo noted that there was a “temporal” Christian Church and a “celestial” one, alluding to the Platonic dichotomy of the real and the ideal. The Soviets and Chinese (prior to Jiang) were regarded as Communists, and yet there were massive deviations from the theory of Communism as developed by Marx, to the theory and practice of Lenin, to the theory and practice of Stalin, and to the theory and practice of Mao.

I highly doubt that studying Marx and Lenin would have enabled one to develop argumentation that could have moderated Stalin’s policies. He was not suffering a cognitive bias insofar as leading the dictatorship of the proletariat was concerned. Similarly, I highly doubt that a Danish or Norwegian under German occupation during the war could have appealed to the National Socialists’ racial anthropology to withdraw, given the higher frequency of “Aryan” physical characteristics in Scandinavia than Germany.

Scott Atran’s work has already driven home the point that clerical guidance and textual reinterpretation is not the answer to Salafi-Takfiri-Jihadi terrorism. Yet that does not mean that these people are not Muslim. A large number of Muslims are part of a political community that is predicated more upon sect than nationality.

Do Hezbollah members regard themselves as Lebanese or even Arab, or as Shia? Does it surprise you that the Taliban’s Islamism, created for and practiced by Pashtuns, is more popular in southern Afghanistan and northern Pakistan than the Islamism of Al Qaeda or Daesh?

[OUTLAW 09]

SW. #Raqqa: pro-Regime forces advanced S. of #Tabqa aiming to block #SDF/#YPG advance, control oil fields and open 2nd front to #DeirEzzor

[OUTLAW 09]

HUGE SCOOP: Money Sergei Magnitsky exposed & was killed over has now been linked to Syrian chemical weapons program
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/russian-mob-syria-chemical-weapons/index.html

Money flowed from Kluyev's bank to Perepilichnyy's company acct in Switzerland to Cyprus acct of person linked to Syrian chemical weapons

A total of $508 m were "traded" by companies having same address as BALEC...all with Russian and/or Syrian linkage

..and other cash flows ending up in Syria..which corroborates @CNN's scoop. This from a 2015 intelligence memo.

[OUTLAW 09]

Christo Grozev‏#@christogrozev

I investigated the bank mentioned here a few years ago. Linked it to cashflow from cigarette contraband to Russian and Bulgarian officials

[OUTLAW 09]

HUGE SCOOP: Money Sergei Magnitsky exposed & was killed over has now been linked to Syrian chemical weapons program
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/russian-mob-syria-chemical-weapons/index.html

Money flowed from Kluyev's bank to Perepilichnyy's company acct in Switzerland to Cyprus acct of person linked to Syrian chemical weapons

A total of $508 m were "traded" by companies having same address as BALEC...all with Russian and/or Syrian linkage

..and other cash flows ending up in Syria..which corroborates @CNN's scoop. This from a 2015 intelligence memo.

FBME: Assad’s WMD front company implicated in Magnitsky case
http://cyprusbusinessmail.com/?p=46853

[OUTLAW 09]

Iran's land bridge project was called a fantasy; now it's being cited by the same people to argue the US should stay out of the way.

[OUTLAW 09]

HUGE SCOOP: Money Sergei Magnitsky exposed & was killed over has now been linked to Syrian chemical weapons program
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/russian-mob-syria-chemical-weapons/index.html

Money flowed from Kluyev's bank to Perepilichnyy's company acct in Switzerland to Cyprus acct of person linked to Syrian chemical weapons

A total of $508 m were "traded" by companies having same address as BALEC...all with Russian and/or Syrian linkage

..and other cash flows ending up in Syria..which corroborates @CNN's scoop. This from a 2015 intelligence memo.

This explains why Putin ruined relationship with the West over Magnitsky case. Now clear that Sergei stumbled into FSB's black financial ops

[OUTLAW 09]

The State Department (#US) doesn't know that the rebels don't attack the #Assad regime since many weeks or why this stupid statement?

[OUTLAW 09]

Homs: Photos show #HTS shelling pro-#Assad forces on the
#Salamiyya - #Homs Highway.

[OUTLAW 09]

Raqqa: Pro-#Assad forces and #YPG are just a few kilometers away from the strategic #Resafa crossroad.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.632605&lon=38.753757&z=13&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

THIS speaks volumes.

#Russia's "De-Escalation Zones" have brought *0* land-delivered aid.

0!!

.

[OUTLAW 09]

UNCONFIRMED

Breaking : US coalition shoot down a regime warplane who was attacking SDF near Tabqa!

Unconfirmed: #Assad-forces lost Fighter Jet near Rusafa south of Tabqa in #Raqqa province

CIT (en) @CITeam_en
Reports coming of international anti-ISIS coalition downing Assad's air force jet after it bombed Kurdish positions SW of Raqqa

[Azor]

An F-18 shot down an Su-22:

https://mobile.twitter.com/arawnsley/status/876536141570330624/photo/1

[davidbfpo]

Not unexpected, but this Iranian action has several points of note; notably the IRGC use of SSM launched from Iran to hit ISIS targets in Eastern Syria:
Iran has launched missile strikes targeting “terrorists” in the Islamic State-controlled Syrian town of Deir ez-Zour in retaliation for last week’s attacks (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/shootings-iranian-parliament-khomeini-shrine) on the Iranian parliament and at the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini that killed 18 people – mostly civilians.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/iran-targets-terrorists-in-missile-strike-on-isis-held-syrian-town

The Syria threads IIRC show that ISIS has not been the focus of the Iranian-supported coalition; will that now change after the Tehran attack?

[OUTLAW 09]

UNCONFIRMED

Breaking : US coalition shoot down a regime warplane who was attacking SDF near Tabqa!

Unconfirmed: #Assad-forces lost Fighter Jet near Rusafa south of Tabqa in #Raqqa province

CIT (en) @CITeam_en
Reports coming of international anti-ISIS coalition downing Assad's air force jet after it bombed Kurdish positions SW of Raqqa

AND the Trump FP for Syria is again exactly what????

This is not going to end well........

BREAKING: Russia to consider any airborne objects detected west of Euphrates River - including coalition aircraft - as legitimate targets.

US is in trouble as Trump hasn't the intellect, experience or temperament to grasp / react to developing global events.

BUT WAIT...now comes Trump supporters ......

You all think Trump wants a war with Russia? you are delusional.. The leftist dems and globalist GOP want this pathetic war.

[OUTLAW 09]

AND the Trump FP for Syria is again exactly what????

This is not going to end well........

BREAKING: Russia to consider any airborne objects detected west of Euphrates River - including coalition aircraft - as legitimate targets.

US is in trouble as Trump hasn't the intellect, experience or temperament to grasp / react to developing global events.

BUT WAIT...now comes Trump supporters ......

You all think Trump wants a war with Russia? you are delusional.. The leftist dems and globalist GOP want this pathetic war.

Airwars‏
@airwars

Russia waters down threat to Coalition aircraft. Now says will 'escort'. A few minutes ago said would be tracked by Russian SAMs as targets

Russia claimed to kill Baghdadi east of the Euphrates. West is west and east is east and always the twain shall meet.

[Azor]

Not unexpected, but this Iranian action has several points of note; notably the IRGC use of SSM launched from Iran to hit ISIS targets in Eastern Syria:
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/iran-targets-terrorists-in-missile-strike-on-isis-held-syrian-town

The Syria threads IIRC show that ISIS has not been the focus of the Iranian-supported coalition; will that now change after the Tehran attack?

I don't think so.

I believe that the Iranian strike was not for the benefit of Daesh. Given Iran's presence on the ground in Iraq and Syria, with the IRGC operating along with Iraq's PMUs and effectively leading the Syrian "National Defense Forces", why would Teheran have waited until after it was attacked to make a significant strike against Daesh?

No, the missile strike was to signal Iran's resolve to the United States and to Pakistan. The latter has been the traditional sponsor of Sunni Islamists in Iran, and yet its sponsored groups were curiously quiet during Obama's tenure, despite the Iranian-inflicted carnage in Syria. Perhaps Trump has greenlit Islamabad to set Iran ablaze?

[OUTLAW 09]

New details on #Syria jet shoot down: US F18 fired 2 missiles at range of .6 miles; 1st missed, 2nd blew rear SU-22 off; chute spotted

Assad claims the pilot was killed...

[OUTLAW 09]

I don't think so.

I believe that the Iranian strike was not for the benefit of Daesh. Given Iran's presence on the ground in Iraq and Syria, with the IRGC operating along with Iraq's PMUs and effectively leading the Syrian "National Defense Forces", why would Teheran have waited until after it was attacked to make a significant strike against Daesh?

No, the missile strike was to signal Iran's resolve to the United States and to Pakistan. The latter has been the traditional sponsor of Sunni Islamists in Iran, and yet its sponsored groups were curiously quiet during Obama's tenure, despite the Iranian-inflicted carnage in Syria. Perhaps Trump has greenlit Islamabad to set Iran ablaze?

Azor...you have to get your facts straight for a change...."greenlit Islamabad"...the last comments coming out of the Trump WH is just the opposite...a massive hardening of US positions AGAINST Pakistan.....

[OUTLAW 09]

U.S. Central Command‏
#@CENTCOM
U.S. aircraft shoots down armed Shaheed-129 pro-Syrian #UAV advancing on Coalition forces near #alTanf #Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

Footage
of Hezbollah-affiliated TV: More and more #Iranian armed forces equipment is seen in the Syrian desert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaaYixnXo_0#

[OUTLAW 09]

NE. #Hama: pro-Assad ambushed by #ISIS near Sheikh Hilal (NE #Salamiyah), leaving many casualties & T-62 knocked out
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.247862&lon=37.500458&z=11&m#

[Azor]

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/877152860089323522

Video footage of a Russian helicopter striking Daesh shown on a mobile device to Oliver Stone by Vladimir Putin appears to be a video from a U.S. helicopter raid in Afghanistan from 2013.

:p

[Azor]

Azor...you have to get your facts straight for a change...."greenlit Islamabad"...the last comments coming out of the Trump WH is just the opposite...a massive hardening of US positions AGAINST Pakistan.....

Outlaw,

What happens in public and what happens behind closed doors are two very different things. In addition, Washington's view of Pakistan's activities with regard to the Pashtuns straddling the Durand Line and Pakistan's activities with regard to the Sunnis and/or Balochis in Iran are two very different things.

Try to keep up, mon ami.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

What happens in public and what happens behind closed doors are two very different things. In addition, Washington's view of Pakistan's activities with regard to the Pashtuns straddling the Durand Line and Pakistan's activities with regard to the Sunnis and/or Balochis in Iran are two very different things.

Try to keep up, mon ami.

BUT WAIT...did not Pakistan openly as did Turkey "side with Qatar"...which if I recall the Trump series of tweets is the kingmaster of funding of terrorism...right???

So "greenlit" get real.....

And if I recall Trump and his merry band in the WH also wanted to name MB as terrorists after his KSA visit BUT if I also recall Tillerson pulled him back and stated MB sits officially in some governments.....

"Greenlit"....really...

[OUTLAW 09]

Rumors that Russia established a military base near the Iraq-Syria border northeast of al-Tanf #Syria
http://palmyra-monitor.net/2017/06/21/%D9

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian regime news keep lying, claiming #Assad jets bomb #ISIS in #Damascus' #Jobar district.
IS has never been there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyYcn7RGEQc#

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

What happens in public and what happens behind closed doors are two very different things. In addition, Washington's view of Pakistan's activities with regard to the Pashtuns straddling the Durand Line and Pakistan's activities with regard to the Sunnis and/or Balochis in Iran are two very different things.

Try to keep up, mon ami.

Azor...that "Greenlit".....

Turkish troops now reportedly in Qatar amid row between Doha + Saudi Arabia
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/world/report+turkish+troops+arrive+qatar+amid+gulf+tensi ons/13461074/story.html#

BTW....Pakistan has also indicated they would send troops....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is still trying to claim al Baghdadi as being killed by RUAF....even though their FM stated we are not 100% sure.....

Russian dep foreign minister: MoD says there is “high degree of certainty” that Rus air force killed Isis leader al-Baghdadi at end of May.

[Azor]

By Tom Cooper at War is Boring: https://warisboring.com/drones-are-dropping-like-flies-from-the-sky-over-syria/

Introduction:


Syria is buzzing with drones. There are days when the people of Idlib governorate can simultaneously see Russian Orlan tactical UAVs, Iranian Ababil, Mohajeer and Shahed-129s and CIA or U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reapers circling the same air space.

It’s not much different over southern Syria. There it’s Hezbollah from Lebanon, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Israel, Jordan and the United States that are operating UAVs.

Frankly, I ceased counting all the shoot-downs of various mini-UAVs over Syria ages ago. Small commercial-style drones are relatively easy to knock out with small-arms fire. But considering the crowd of larger UAVs, it’s hardly surprising that the various combatants have begun shooting these down, too.

Highlights:


U.S. aircraft actually began shooting down Iranian UAVs over Iraq 8 years ago
The SyAAF has shot down UAVs operated by Israel (as far back as 2006) and Jordan
Despite CJTF-OIR claims that the IRGC Shahed-129 UAV shot down on June 20, 2017 was armed and threatening, Shahed-129 cannot carry weapons at present

[OUTLAW 09]

11 weapons used by Russia's elite Spetsnaz operators
http://read.bi/2rZrjfG

[OUTLAW 09]

Artem Gorelov from Izhevsk, Russia, who earlier fought for Ru-backed rebels in Ukraine, was killed in Syria, likely serving in "Wagner" PMC