Syria in 2017 (April-December)

[OUTLAW 09]

HAS Assad again used CWs.....


Jobar News map of the military situation in Jobar Neighborhood. Seems some kind of chemical weapon has been allegedly used on 2 fronts.

[Azor]

From the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/bitter-us-russian-standoff-syria-hot-words-real-harm/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 84
By: Pavel Felgenhauer

Introduction:


A series of military incidents involving the United States, Russia, and their allies in Syria and the Baltic region have additionally hurt already strained US-Russian relations. As sign of its acute displeasure, Moscow canceled high-level talks between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and US Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon, which were planned for June 23, in St. Petersburg. Ryabkov lambasted the US for adding 38 individuals and organizations to its list of sanctions “as a political gift” to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who visited Washington this week (June 20) and met with President Donald Trump at the White House. According to Ryabkov, “There is nothing to discuss fruitfully with Washington today.” Ryabkov accused the Trump administration of supporting “the party of war in Kiyv” and of “following the lead of prominent Russophobes in the US Congress” (Mid.ru, June 21). The cancelation of the St. Petersburg round of Ryabkov-Shannon talks calls into question plans for the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and President Vladimir Putin, on the sidelines of the upcoming (July 7–8) G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed displeasure over:


The shooting down of the Syrian Su-22 on June 18
The US base near al-Tanf, with special forces and HIMARS artillery
The shooting down of two Iranian UAVs
The bombing of pro-Assad armored columns (twice)


However, Russia has not attempted to hold U.S. aircraft operating around al-Tanf at risk...

[OUTLAW 09]

From the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/bitter-us-russian-standoff-syria-hot-words-real-harm/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 84
By: Pavel Felgenhauer

Introduction:



The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed displeasure over:


The shooting down of the Syrian Su-22 on June 18
The US base near al-Tanf, with special forces and HIMARS artillery
The shooting down of two Iranian UAVs
The bombing of pro-Assad armored columns (twice)


However, Russia has not attempted to hold U.S. aircraft operating around al-Tanf at risk...

JUST a side comment...what we are actually seeing in Syria is not an Obama nor a Trump and his merry band FP....

We are seeing a SecDef Mattis FP backed up by AIM 9s.....and specific Iranian counter air strikes.....to enforce a red line policy.

The Mattis FP problem begins the exact day he attempts to take back under control those advanced weapon systems given to the PKK....after Raqqa...

[OUTLAW 09]

Rebels have killed an #Assad Brigadier General and many other #Assad fighters at #Madinat_al_Baath today.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.167876&lon=35.865469&z=14&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: Rebels launched the offensive "Road to #Damascus" in #Quneitra Province. #Israel has destroyed regime artillery and tanks today.

Rebel gains Ba'ath City #Quneitra:
• Bridge Detachment
• Mubashrat al-Hajar
• Fire Tower
• Quarries
• al-'Arbaein
• Governate Building

Israeli aircraft targeted two syrian tanks and other Syrian army Sites in Quneitra

IDF
✔
@IDFSpokesperson
In response to over 10 projectiles launched from Syria, IAF aircraft targeted origin of launches & 2 Syrian tanks

[Azor]

JUST a side comment...what we are actually seeing in Syria is not an Obama nor a Trump and his merry band FP....

We are seeing a SecDef Mattis FP backed up by AIM 9s.....and specific Iranian counter air strikes.....to enforce a red line policy.

The Mattis FP problem begins the exact day he attempts to take back under control those advanced weapon systems given to the PKK....after Raqqa...

I would disagree that Mattis has a specific foreign policy that he is executing. However, Mattis is an obviously good interlocutor with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Combatant Commanders. What we are observing is a continuation of Obama's policies with regard to Syria, albeit with the military empowered tactically.

Where Trump and Obama differ is on Iran. I doubt that Trump will unilaterally abrogate the JCPOA, given the advice of the foreign policy, intelligence and defense communities, however, he will not kowtow to Iran's adventures in Iraq and Syria merely to ensure that Iran upholds it.

[OUTLAW 09]

I would disagree that Mattis has a specific foreign policy that he is executing. However, Mattis is an obviously good interlocutor with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Combatant Commanders. What we are observing is a continuation of Obama's policies with regard to Syria, albeit with the military empowered tactically.

Where Trump and Obama differ is on Iran. I doubt that Trump will unilaterally abrogate the JCPOA, given the advice of the foreign policy, intelligence and defense communities, however, he will not kowtow to Iran's adventures in Iraq and Syria merely to ensure that Iran upholds it.

Mattis is effectively now driving Syrian FP tactically speaking just as Trump has given DoD the authority to drive the new changes in AFG...WHY because if it goes south he can claim DoD was the cause not Trump.....

Definitely not following the Obama model...

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia negotiating deployment of Kyrgyz and Kazakh contingents in Syria
http://uawire.org/news/russia-negotiating-deployment-of-kyrgyz-and-kazakh-contingents-in-syria#

[Azor]

Mattis is effectively now driving Syrian FP tactically speaking just as Trump has given DoD the authority to drive the new changes in AFG...WHY because if it goes south he can claim DoD was the cause not Trump.....

Definitely not following the Obama model...

If what you say is true about Trump distancing himself from possible failure in Syria, which seems unlikely given Daesh's imminent defeat as a conventional force, then there is no differentiation from the "Obama model" wherein the White House micromanaged military operations to avoid offending Iran, causing civilian casualties and deploying major ground forces.

[OUTLAW 09]

If what you say is true about Trump distancing himself from possible failure in Syria, which seems unlikely given Daesh's imminent defeat as a conventional force, then there is no differentiation from the "Obama model" wherein the White House micromanaged military operations to avoid offending Iran, causing civilian casualties and deploying major ground forces.


Again a misnomer...."IS defeat".....tactically a battlefield defeat BUT IS is a very long way from being "defeated"....show me a "defeated ideology" that was "defeated" in under 70 years???

Some might point to Communism but heck even Putin and his oligarchs evolved out that Communism and he is now trying to raise from the dead Stalin....so really "defeated" afraid not even Communism....

Even in Mosul they have mounted a strong counterattack and in Diyala Province they are constantly ambushing ISF with solid results in ISF loses....

They will eventually shift back to guerrilla warfare and keep the entire 400K ISF busy for years....

[OUTLAW 09]

Quneitra: Rebels have killed #Assad Colonel Tariq Ali Hammoud in #Quneitra Province. He was a friend of Bashar #Assad.

[OUTLAW 09]

AND again just what is the Trump FP strategy for ME...???

War is business" esp. in Syria: Russian firm linked to "Putin's chef" reportedly to get 1/4 of oil it reconquers
http://www.fontanka.ru/2017/06/26/084/

[OUTLAW 09]

WH issued a warning yesterday to Assad not to use CWs as they have detected a possible preparing for such an attack.....

2X RC-135 Combat sent + Rivet Joint in E med. Yesterday 1 snooped #Syria shores, then WH warned of chem attack. Same tracks today as yesterday?

Second attachment is from yesterday...this time US Recce is out in force today 27 JUN...

Letting both Putin and Assad thoroughly understand the warning sent to them yesterday....

Callsign a warning to Assad? REPAY21

[OUTLAW 09]

THIS is certainly not the Trump IS plan nor his ME FP....

Aleppo: Reports about final preparations for the Turkish-backed offensive against YPG in the Afrin Canton.

[OUTLAW 09]

US Forces driving around the city of Tell Abyad on Syria Turkey border. .

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria's regime says they were bombed by the Israelis. So do the Israelis. But Russian military says otherwise. .....Israelis bombed the rebel....not RUAF
http://goo.gl/1Z6Ryn

[OUTLAW 09]

Assad's air force supported #ISIS again, dropping 18 barrel bombs in #FSA positions in S-W #Daraa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyHk4DBvBEM#

[OUTLAW 09]

Geolocation of the reported #Turkey's garrison inside of #Syria's Idlib province.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.275763&lon=36.821880&z=14&m=bs#

[OUTLAW 09]

Possible Russian SOF around Jobar
https://youtu.be/Mw-bFeBAAiU?t=48s#

[OUTLAW 09]

ISRAEL: Israeli military struck Syrian Army positions following mortar fire

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.798389#

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Mission UN
✔
@RussiaUN
#Safronkov: There is no threat from #Syria|n Armed Forces to the American experts. We don’t have any credible information on this issue.

[davidbfpo]

A pointer to this review of Syria todayhttps://warontherocks.com/2017/06/the-signal-in-syrias-noise/

[OUTLAW 09]

Palmyra: #ISIS has killed #Assad Brigadier General Yusuf Ahmed east of #Palmyra.

[OUTLAW 09]

Several casualties aftermath #SAA terrorists carried out the 3rd Chemical Attack on #Zamalka
July 2

WELL so much for the US warning to not use CWs.....Trump WH claimed success in supposedly stopping attacks such as this one....

[OUTLAW 09]

Iran recruited over 10k Afghan refugees to fight its worst battles in Syria. Most don't know why they're fighting

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/opinion/sunday/iran-afghanistan-refugees-assad-syria.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share#

[OUTLAW 09]

Amid rumours that Turkey gears up for an Afrin-offensive, is this its future base in Syria's Idlib governorate?
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/07/02/future-turkish-base/#

[OUTLAW 09]

Three car bombs hit Damascus, at least seven people killed
http://reut.rs/2sfdhYk

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria #Assad's beheading militia "Suqur al Sahra" lead by warlord Mohammad Jaber advance on villages in eastern #Hama with #Russia'n CAS

[OUTLAW 09]

What ISIL really thinks about the future


There is still a long way for Iraq and Syria to go before they can properly claim to have defeated the group, writes Hassan Hassan

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/what-isil-really-thinks-about-the-future-1.91394

[OUTLAW 09]

Concerning recent assad chemical gas attakcs largely unreported by MSM....and ignroed by Trump and his red line FP.....

[OUTLAW 09]

A massive Turkish artillery attack destroyed the #YPG position, overlooking #Azaz city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9wiQA_3h7k#…

[Azor]

A pointer to this review of Syria todayhttps://warontherocks.com/2017/06/the-signal-in-syrias-noise/

Unfortunately, this article ignores Syria's demographics and essentially advocates for minority Alawi-Kurdish rule over the Sunni Arabs. It also ignores that Assad is dependent upon some 30,000 to 35,000 Iranian-led foreign Shia mercenaries to preserve his rule. Are these foreigners to stay in order to enforce "stability"?

[OUTLAW 09]

UK Delegation OPCW @UK_OPCW
In OPCW mtg on chem weapon use in Syria. Russia agrees that sarin or sarin-like substance used. Says no grounds to disbelieve OPCW finding.


Actually interesting in that it was Assad who gave the soil samples taken at the impact point that were the confirming evidence....that caused a major fallout among Assad online supporters who then claimed the soil samples were "fake"....

[OUTLAW 09]

Afrin today.
In a move to stop the looming TK military intervention by showing the world its autonomy from the terror org PKK ...
Oh wait.

[OUTLAW 09]

Deputy commander of Jaysh al-Thuwar Ahmed Sultan (#FSA faction of SDF) says they will halt #Raqqa op. to fight against Turkey in #Afrin.

[OUTLAW 09]

Afrin today.
In a move to stop the looming TK military intervention by showing the world its autonomy from the terror org PKK ...
Oh wait.

Turkey says it's not 'declaring war' in Syria, but ready to respond:
http://reut.rs/2tqveF0

Kurdish YPG militia expects conflict with Turkey in northern Syria.
http://reut.rs/2tJyPk0

[OUTLAW 09]

Only #Syria'ns should decide about own future- Not #Russia, #US, #Iran or #Turkey -Colonialism failed ->Sykes Pycot demarcation

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...now do you finally realize just how correct I and CrowBat have been? We critiqued Obama ME FP because he did not understand what was actually ongoing inside Syria and Trump has no idea what the heck he is doing for any FP.

This will now drive FSA into the open arms of HTS/AQ and the US will be ground into the dust of Syria, Iraq and ME for the coming decade as Is reverts back to it's basic roots, guerrilla warfare and working with disillusioned Sunni's about US bombs raining on them and the high number of Shia killings of Sunni civilians.

Trump just provided Putin a major win and the question is why?

WINNERS, Assad, Putin and Khamenei.

LOSSERS Trump and DoD and DoS and Us allies

Trump ends CIA arms support for anti-Assad Syria rebels: U.S. officials
http://reut.rs/2uKe9Jx

[Azor]

Azor...now do you finally realize just how correct I and CrowBat have been? We critiqued Obama ME FP because he did not understand what was actually ongoing inside Syria and Trump has no idea what the heck he is doing for any FP.

This will now drive FSA into the open arms of HTS/AQ and the US will be ground into the dust of Syria, Iraq and ME for the coming decade as Is reverts back to it's basic roots, guerrilla warfare and working with disillusioned Sunni's about US bombs raining on them and the high number of Shia killings of Sunni civilians.

Trump just provided Putin a major win and the question is why?

WINNERS, Assad, Putin and Khamenei.

LOSSERS Trump and DoD and DoS and Us allies

Trump ends CIA arms support for anti-Assad Syria rebels: U.S. officials
http://reut.rs/2uKe9Jx

Outlaw,

This announcement is disappointing to be sure, but it is important not to exaggerate its impact or to ignore the current dynamics of the war:


As CrowBat concurred, I would suggest that the end of Timber Sycamore may well ease U.S. restrictions on GCC, Turkish and Jordanian support for the Free Syrian Army
The announcement could be a public relations ploy, as another secret CIA program may replace it
The FSA elements in the Turkish and Coalition (SDF) salients will continue to receive support as well as protection from pro-Assad forces
Turkey can independently support FSA elements in northwestern Syria while Jordan can do the same for those in southern Syria
The rebellion is a melee in northwestern Syria as rebels fight one another and pro-Assad forces
Timber Sycamore was clearly not enough for the FSA to survive both pro-Assad forces and Islamist units
In the absence of a full U.S. commitment to regime change and reconstruction in Syria, the operation could only continue to keep Syria ablaze
Pro-Assad forces will not be able to take the Coalition or Turkish salients


We will have to see how the war develops over the coming weeks, and whether social media can keep us abreast of the FSA's operations.

[Azor]

From Omar Sabbour on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/omar.sabbour.5/posts/1602925123113390):

1) The end of the CIA "vetting" program of "arming rebels"

For those who have closely followed Syria over the years, they will know of course that the CIA programme has not been dictated by actually providing weapons to the rebels directly (groups which received weapons directly from the US tended to have agreed not to use them against Assad, such as the SDF, New Syrian Army, Mou'tasem Brigade, Hamza Division), but in "co-coordinating" (i.e. controlling) the arms supply to them coming from other parties (i.e. Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and private parties - references for this can be found at the bottom [1]). This control has been exercised via two main "Operation Centres" - the MOC in Jordan and the MOM in Turkey - and has taken the form of determining the quantity and quality of weapons which are allowed to go in (for instance advanced weaponry are either restricted - such as anti-tank missiles - or altogether blockaded - such as anti-aircraft missiles; whilst the flow of regular weaponry and ammunition varies according to events and strategic interests on the ground) and which groups receive them.

Of course the CIA and Jordanian intelligence had already been banning (the already previously restricted [2]) arms going into the South for the purpose of anti-Assad operations for years (https://mkaradjis.wordpress.com/…/us-and-jordan-demand-sou…/), whilst in the North the CIA had restricted allowing arms to rebel operations even against ISIS [3] - though the degree of US control here had been much less than in the south, as the US had been circumvented more by Turkey (whilst Turkey always pressured the US to allow in an effective supply of weaponry to the rebels, by contrast Jordan had an effectively identical position to the US vis a vis Syria: i.e. supporting the survival of the opposition but not empowering it to overthrow Assad).
What this news piece means, in other words, is that the US is going to try and institute a total blockade of any rebel weaponry going into north or south Syria. This essentially means a return to the US policy before the CIA program (i.e. 2011-late 2013), which consisted of "unofficially" (i.e. not through the MOC or MOM) seizing even light weaponry shipments - this CIA policing policy at the time was described as "choking" the Syrian rebel supply [4].

In combination with what appears to be Turkey's selling out of the rebellion, this is essentially merely a "publicisation" of the undeclared US-Russian-Turkish arrangement aimed at ending the armed resistance to Assad which had which begun with the fall of Aleppo (when the US actually bombed rebel areas of the city during the siege, with US officials even justifying the Russian bombardment - whilst Turkey blocked arms supplies going in during the siege [5]). Supporters of Turkey need understand that whilst Turkey did indeed want to empower the rebels militarily to overthrow Assad (unlike Jordan), it has never been brave enough to cross the US red-lines which were explicitly against this policy [6].

2) The capture of Mosul by the Iraqi government

Warning to Syrian groups: With the capture of Mosul it is very likely that you will find the Iraqi government reshifting its full efforts to helping Assad in Syria. Of course, there are already about a dozen or so core Iraqi PMU groups which are part of the Iraqi Military (not Army, which is a noteworthy distincion) and and are salaried by the central government, but have not had so-called official "permission" to fight there by the Prime Minister Abadi (although obviously the permission is very much present by the fact that they're paid and armed by the government) who have been fighting in Syria for a long time. A few weeks ago I read that one of the PMU groups (who hadn't yet intervened in Syria) "asked Abadi" for permission to do so. As so many others have already done so without waiting for "official permission", the fact that this group has "asked" raises the notion that the Iraqi government might "officially" adopt intervention in Syria. As a result you might very well have much more PMU units (and one should know that there are a lot more of those with tens of thousands of more fighters than the ones already in Syria) who've been tied down in Iraq against ISIS coming to fight in Syria - and these units would likely be backed much more directly by the central government, security forces and Army (i.e. even if the regular Army divisions don't actively cross the border into Syria, they will likely provide the PMUs with other forms of support, intelligence, etc.).

With Trump's policy direction of the effective declaration that the US will seek to block any external weapons supplies to the rebels, it seems very likely that there won't be any pretense of US opposition to the central government's "official" acceptance of intervention in Syria. Of course this "official" distinction is largely irrelevant as the Iraqi PMUs are very much backed by the Iraqi government in their Syrian invasion, but the point is that the abandonment of the official pretense will likely be accompanied with a far-escalated and directed support to Assad coming from Iraq.

Footnotes:

[1]
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/…/anti-aircraft-missiles-could-be…
http://web.archive.org/…/12/cia-syrian-rebels_n_3912583.html

[2]
https://eaworldview.com/…/syria-special-the-us-saudi-confl…/
www.nytimes.com/…/citing-us-fears-arab-allies-limit-aid-to-…
http://syrianobserver.com/…/The_U_S_Veto_Arming_Syrian_Oppo…
https://www.pri.org/…/why-are-us-made-anti-tank-missiles-sh…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…/russias-intervention-in-s_b…

[3]
http://syrianobserver.com/…/The_U_S_Veto_Arming_Syrian_Oppo…

[4]
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/…/cia-chokes-rebels-weapon-suppl…
http://web.archive.org/…/report-cia-blocked-u-s-groups-eff…/
http://www.upi.com/…/CIA-allegedly-over…/UPI-93401344880820/

[5]
https://www.facebook.com/SyriaSolidarityCampaign/posts/32620766438901
https://www.facebook.com/SyriaSolidarityCampaign/posts/33937461307236
http://uk.businessinsider.com/defense-department-nusra-alep…

[6]
http://foreignpolicy.com/…/state-dept-rebels-are-never-goi…/

[Azor]

By Faysal Itani at DefenseOne (http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/07/end-american-support-syrian-rebels-was-inevitable/139650/?oref=DefenseOneTCO&utm_content=buffer9569c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

Introduction:


Where the insurgency is concerned, Trump and Obama have plenty in common.

This week, the Trump administration reportedly cancelled a long-running covert program to support vetted Syrian rebels in the war against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. While this move has provoked a small outcry among Assad’s opponents, the development itself is far from surprising. Furthermore, it is incorrect, as some have insisted, to view the cancellation as a gratuitous concession to Russia—adecision like this, which aligns with years of deliberate U.S. strategy and Trump’sown stated goals, cannot be considered a concession. It is almost certainly true that Trump hopes this decision will make Russia more cooperative on ceasefires between the regime and the insurgency. But if that does not happen or if it fails to pacify Syria—a likely outcome—this would not alter an already-dismal strategic situation for the Syrian opposition, one that may well be acceptable to the United States.

The Trump administration’s decision to end this program represents the logical endpoint of years of evolution in U.S. policy. While the effort was conceived under Barack Obama, it was always at odds with America’s broader goals—a tension that Trump has long recognized and is now acting upon.

[davidbfpo]

The April 2017 Sarin CW attack on Khan Sheikhoun features in sixty posts on the Forum, mainly in the Syrian threads and the Russian Info Ops thread.

Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to commentary by Eliot Higgins @ Bellingcat, which starts with:
Following the July 4th, 2017 publication of the OPCW fact-finding mission (FFM) report (https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/Fact_Finding_Mission/s-1510-2017_e_.pdf) on the April 4th, 2017 Khan Sheikhoun Sarin attack in Syria, questions were raised about claims made by the veteran journalist Seymour Hersh in his June 25th, 2017 article in Welt, “Trump‘s Red Line (https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165905578/Trump-s-Red-Line.html)“. The OPCW FFM report flatly contradicted (https://jacobinmag.com/2017/07/syria-chemical-attack-assad-trump) claims made in Hersh’s article, namely how a Syrian SU-24 supposedly fired a precision-guided munition at a Jihadi command and control center in the north of Khan Sheikhoun, with the resulting explosion inadvertently releasing toxic gases from “medicines and chlorine-based decontaminants” stored in the basement of the building, along with unspecified weapons and munitions.
Hersh’s claim contradicted the OPCW FFM report, which stated that Sarin had been detected in environmental samples and in tests on the victims of the attack. Not only that, but Hersh’s reporting also contradicted claims made by the US, French, Syrian, and Russian governments (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/07/04/summary-claims-surrounding-khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack/).Link:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/07/28/khan-sheikhoun-seymour-hersh-learned-just-write-know-move/

[Azor]

By: Bassem Mroue, The Associated Press
http://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2017/07/29/report-4-us-backed-syrian-rebels-defect-to-government/


BEIRUT — A small number of U.S.-backed rebels have defected and joined government forces south of the country days after the U.S. announced an end to a CIA program that backed opposition fighters, Syrian opposition activists said Saturday.

The defection of at least four rebels came after The Washington Post reported that the White House has decided to halt the CIA supply-and-equip program for Syrian rebels.

U.S. President Donald Trump essentially confirmed the existence of the program and its cancellation Monday night when he lashed out at The Washington Post. The president tweeted that the newspaper “fabricated the facts on my ending massive, dangerous, and wasteful payments to Syrian rebels fighting (Syrian President Bashar) Assad.”

The defection also came as Col. Ryan Dillon, the spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group, told CNN this week that “the coalition supports only those forces committed to fighting” the Islamic State group...

[CrowBat]

Azor...now do you finally realize just how correct I and CrowBat have been? We critiqued Obama ME FP because he did not understand what was actually ongoing inside Syria and Trump has no idea what the heck he is doing for any FP.Meanwhile, I would 'upgrade' this thesis to: 'he (and other Western cleptocrac... erm... 'governments') acted intentionally'.

Just like in Libya of 2011, and right from the start, the idea of most of our governments - and almost all the media - here in the West was that the uprising in Syria is one of 'al-Qaida against a secular government'.

Ever since, these governments and all the possible talking heads - and there are true armies of these, ranging from the likes of Oblablas and Steinmeiers, via all the Landis', Tamimis, Listers etc. - are tearing themselves and each other apart (and everybody who happens to pass by) with new 'revelations' about 'al-Qaida in Syria' and whatever else. Primarily because that's all they were ever interested in seeing in this conflict; sadly, also because that was of crucial importance for Israel, too (then, a democratic Syria was just the last thing all of them were ever curious to see, just like a democratic Libya... or even such Venezuela). For this purpose, out of an unimportant and anything else than 'influential' presence, they created a temporary parallel universe through exaggerating and pointing out - de-facto _advertising_ a few thugs. And then they continued repeating the same 'song' - until this became reality, first in the case of the Daesh, then in the case of this JAN/HTS comedy.

I'm no conspiracy theoretician - and feel free to call me 'naive' and 'idealist' as much as you like - but, if this is not reminding of well-known campaigns 'pro' US food- and tobacco-industries from the 1970s and 1980s (all of which where wholeheartedly supported by top experts from Harvard University - who, BTW - were all paid for by the same food- and tobacco-industries)... I do not know what else might ever do so.

All of this is now 'past tense'. Present times is that a pluralist revolution was successfully suppressed and replaced by gangs of extremists of all possible sorts, and that no solution for the stinking pile of BS so skilfully created in Syria is in sight.

The war can thus go on.

Congratulations everybody.

[Azor]

Meanwhile, I would 'upgrade' this thesis to: 'he (and other Western cleptocrac... erm... 'governments') acted intentionally'.

Just like in Libya of 2011, and right from the start, the idea of most of our governments - and almost all the media - here in the West was that the uprising in Syria is one of 'al-Qaida against a secular government'.

Ever since, these governments and all the possible talking heads - and there are true armies of these, ranging from the likes of Oblablas and Steinmeiers, via all the Landis', Tamimis, Listers etc. - are tearing themselves and each other apart (and everybody who happens to pass by) with new 'revelations' about 'al-Qaida in Syria' and whatever else. Primarily because that's all they were ever interested in seeing in this conflict; sadly, also because that was of crucial importance for Israel, too (then, a democratic Syria was just the last thing all of them were ever curious to see, just like a democratic Libya... or even such Venezuela). For this purpose, out of an unimportant and anything else than 'influential' presence, they created a temporary parallel universe through exaggerating and pointing out - de-facto _advertising_ a few thugs. And then they continued repeating the same 'song' - until this became reality, first in the case of the Daesh, then in the case of this JAN/HTS comedy.

I'm no conspiracy theoretician - and feel free to call me 'naive' and 'idealist' as much as you like - but, if this is not reminding of well-known campaigns 'pro' US food- and tobacco-industries from the 1970s and 1980s (all of which where wholeheartedly supported by top experts from Harvard University - who, BTW - were all paid for by the same food- and tobacco-industries)... I do not know what else might ever do so.

All of this is now 'past tense'. Present times is that a pluralist revolution was successfully suppressed and replaced by gangs of extremists of all possible sorts, and that no solution for the stinking pile of BS so skilfully created in Syria is in sight.

The war can thus go on.

Congratulations everybody.

On the contrary, the relevant appointed public officials and P3 analysts are more than capable of understanding the nuances of each situation and recommending appropriate policies. However, the elected officials and representatives, the mainstream media and the electorate itself, are incapable of doing either.

The portrayal of the entire Syrian Arab rebellion as one of aggressive Sunni Arab Muslim supremacism on the order of Al Qaeda and Daesh is clearly false; so too the lionizing of the Kurds and the conflating of the KRG with the PKK/PYD. As for Assad and his allies, one’s opinion of the rebellion should not determine one’s opinion of his regime or its crimes both at war and at peace. Long before 2011, the Assad dynasty had acquired offensive chemical weapons and had attempted to develop nuclear ones as well, and these capabilities were far more threatening to the West and its interests than any Syrian rebels. The threats from Assad’s allies Iran and Hezbollah were well-known until recently, when certain governments decided to engage with the former and partner with both.

Despite all of these lies, errors and omissions, the facts are that:


The secular/moderate rebels are not capable of winning the war, even with Turkish support

Only the U.S. has the ability to oust foreign pro-Assad forces from Syria


A U.S. occupation and reconstruction of Syria would require:


The forcible expulsion of more than 30,000 pro-Assad foreign forces

Disarmament and internment of at least 200,000 Syrian combatants

Clashes with Iranian and Russian forces with wider implications

An occupation force of at least 410,000, and probably closer to 2,050,000*

An additional 400,000 to 600,000 armed local auxiliaries*

4-7 years of occupation and reconstruction**

An ongoing U.S. presence in Syria for more than 50 years as well as a deep bilateral relationship**


The Syrian Revolution began to eat its children years ago, as the revolutions in Libya, Egypt, Iran and Algeria already have. To this day, the center-left and left-wing revolutionaries who helped overthrow the Shah in Iran – and who faced much worse repression under Khomeini – propagate the myth that the CIA installed both leaders. Why? Because that myth is easier to swallow than the truth that the revolution was perverted from within. Contemporary Russians can be found who argued that Western financiers backed the Communist and National Socialist seizures of power in Russia and Germany, respectively.

You will recall that the Russian Revolution was incredibly “pluralist”, which was one of its problems. Note also that the more successful English Revolution of 1642 was not finally resolved until 1689 in England, and 1775 in the United States…

Like it or not, the Free Syrian Army needed overwhelming foreign support to win the war and then win the peace, and they did not fail to win due to a conspiracy hatched in Washington, Tel Aviv or Berlin.





*Based upon the forces committed to Operation Banner and the Second Chechen War
**Based upon the occupations of Germany and Japan

[CrowBat]

There is a nice verb in German, for which there is no translation to English.

It's called 'zerreden'.

It's the best description of such 'explanations' about Syria, like your's.

Example?

First let Assad detain and disappear 60.000-120.000 peaceful, secular activists; congratulate him for 'reforms' like letting 5,000 Islamists out of his jails, where these were extremised; then let Qatar, Kuwait and Turkey sponsor extremist gangs organized by these while doing whatever is possible to curb foreign support for secular armed groups (including taking away all of their MANPADs)...add plenty of such nonsense like 'Turkey is supporting moderate Syrian insurgents', 'CIA is doing the same too'...preferably while establishing a close alliance with Marxist/Maoist terrorist group that's completely foreign to the country in question - and then declare the entire affair for 'no matter of national interest', before, finally, concluding it just couldn't work.

Then, sigh, fighting a war for... well, gauging by Afghanistan: meanwhile it's 40+ years and there's no end in sight... is, what: 'cheaper'?

Than what?

(Disclaimer: and of course, there's no conspiracy; then any similarities to earlier, well-known and well-documented cases - are pure coincidence.)

[Azor]

There is a nice verb in German, for which there is no translation to English.

It's called 'zerreden'.

It's the best description of such 'explanations' about Syria, like your's.

Example?

First let Assad detain and disappear 60.000-120.000 peaceful, secular activists; congratulate him for 'reforms' like letting 5,000 Islamists out of his jails, where these were extremised; then let Qatar, Kuwait and Turkey sponsor extremist gangs organized by these while doing whatever is possible to curb foreign support for secular armed groups (including taking away all of their MANPADs)...add plenty of such nonsense like 'Turkey is supporting moderate Syrian insurgents', 'CIA is doing the same too'...preferably while establishing a close alliance with Marxist/Maoist terrorist group that's completely foreign to the country in question - and then declare the entire affair for 'no matter of national interest', before, finally, concluding it just couldn't work.

Then, sigh, fighting a war for... well, gauging by Afghanistan: meanwhile it's 40+ years and there's no end in sight... is, what: 'cheaper'?

Than what?

(Disclaimer: and of course, there's no conspiracy; then any similarities to earlier, well-known and well-documented cases - are pure coincidence.)

There are two words in English that may still have some currency in your stomping grounds: Western betrayal.

If we must still suffer hearing about the incomparable bravery of a handful of people with clandestine printing presses in Copenhagen and Brussels, and about how the Free French Forces were the fourth-largest of the Allies in 1945, then I suggest you get used to hearing about how the YPG fighters are liberal, democratic and pluralistic heroes.

Firstly, where did you arrive at this figure? Is it pre-Civil War? Even the lower bound would be more than four times higher than the non-political prison population. Assad was not “congratulated” for detaining some 200,000 people during the course of the war and murdering more than 10,000 of them.

Secondly, where do Saudi Arabia and Jordan fit in among the foreign sponsors? You are actually confirming my argument that direct U.S. intervention was necessary rather than “leading from behind”. One can infer that given the lessons of Operation Cyclone, the U.S. objective was never to establish a strong, liberal democratic state in Syria, but to set it ablaze and make it ungovernable by Assad and Khamenei. If the objective was the latter, then Operation Timber Sycamore was the most efficient means of doing so.

Thirdly, the primary Western interest in the Syrian Civil War is preventing spillover, including Islamist terrorism. The PKK/PYD has made itself very useful in that regard, by establishing a truce of sorts with Assad, and fighting Daesh. Of course, we will reap the whirlwind of an ethnic war for Kurdish independence, a political struggle for leadership of the Kurds whether independent or not, continued sectarian war between Sunni and Shia, and a struggle between the unitary states in question and the centrifugal forces of autonomy and outright secession.

As Americans made clear in 1918 and 1945, they care little for unfinished business so long as they are protected by two great oceans. As the British learned over a period of centuries, dabbling in “offshore balancing” not only worsens the carnage and destruction, but it usually opens the gates to the next existential threat.

As for Afghanistan, “victory” is possible so long as the definition of that victory is restricted. There will be no strong and friendly state in Afghanistan (there never was a strong Afghan state to begin with), but there can be an autonomous client region in the north, not unlike the KRG in Iraq.

Lastly, none of your points alter the fact that the liberation of Syria and its reconstitution as a liberal democracy, would have required a major U.S. national commitment on the order of those it has made to France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. You will note that the Special Operations Executive or its post-1945 iterations did not liberate Europe from either of its 1939 occupiers.

I would enjoy seeing the relative success in Tunisia be replicated beyond its borders, but it may well be short-lived and due to unique local factors.

[davidbfpo]

External intervention in a civil war is never easy.

Syria is no exception, sadly for its people there is little prospect of peace after over six years of war (Wiki refers to the start as March 15, 2011). It is easy to foresee the Syrian diaspora being quite large (bigger than the Palestinian) and with "camps" scattered around its periphery.

Once the Assad regime decided to bludgeon the protestors the die was cast. I do not think there was ever a chance the regime would reform itself. There was a potent "witches cauldron", with a fair amount of external advice and training. Having "kept the lid" on protests and repressing the Homs / Hama revolt in 1982, why would it think the trusted, reliable methods wouldn't work once more?

Yes the "West" has an interest in the region, Syria was rather low down the list of priorities. The USA's interest had a large complicating factor, the defence of Israel - I do find it curious how careful and guarded Israel has been, almost as if the conflict suited it's interests.

Were the policies followed by the USA wise, let alone practical? I am unsure if other Western countries had much impact on the USA, with the exception of France.

Was there a "golden hour / day /month" when external intervention could have ended the civil war? No.

[Azor]

External intervention in a civil war is never easy.

No, it isn’t, but by the same token, few civil wars have occurred without external intervention.

The Syrian Civil War is hopelessly intertwined with the Iraqi Civil War as well as the other anti-authoritarian popular uprisings throughout the Arab world. It is as much a Gordian knot in our time, as the Thirty Years War was for 17th Century Europe.


Once the Assad regime decided to bludgeon the protestors the die was cast. I do not think there was ever a chance the regime would reform itself. There was a potent "witches cauldron", with a fair amount of external advice and training. Having "kept the lid" on protests and repressing the Homs / Hama revolt in 1982, why would it think the trusted, reliable methods wouldn't work once more?

I disagree that the repressions of 1979-1982 informed Assad’s course of action in 2011. The former uprising was largely a militant Islamist one led by the Muslim Brotherhood whereas the latter uprising was peaceful, popular and anti-authoritarian. Whereas Hafez al-Assad could rely upon the Soviets and other allies to prevent foreign intervention on behalf of the Islamist rebellion, his son was much more isolated in 2011 and had seen the Western response to the uprisings in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia already.

I strongly believed that Assad was following the advice of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, who suppressed the uprising in Iran in 2009-2010, and who had assumed that they could achieve the same success in Syria. Yet Syria is not Iran…


Was there a "golden hour / day /month" when external intervention could have ended the civil war? No.

I completely agree. As I have said to Outlaw and CrowBat many times, the reconstruction of Syria as a liberal democracy would have required a major and enduring U.S. or Western commitment.

[davidbfpo]

Somehow the regime has managed this relief operation:
The Syrian military has broken a siege of the eastern city of Deir al-Zour, surrounded for years by so-called Islamic State, state media say. An estimated 93,000 civilians have been trapped in an enclave on the western bank of the River Euphrates since 2015.Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41162683


A recent map from IHS Conflict Monitor:https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/15AB/production/_97674550_iraq_syria_control_04_09_2017_624_16x9_m ap.png

[CrowBat]

Somehow the regime...
It wasn't 'the regime', but Hezbollah. Look whom Zahreddine (commander of the former southern pocket) thanked as first when interviewed on the TV (https://streamable.com/kujzw).


... has managed this relief operation:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41162683...
...which is the usual nonsense spread about this war by the Western MSM.

Namely, the only party 'besieged' there was the Assadist garrison, and people besieged by it. For details see SiegeWatch.org (https://siegewatch.org/#7/36.976/40.128)'s entry on Dayr az-Zawr.

Note the entry about WFP's airdrops: run by Russian aircraft, these airdrops functioned as supplies for the garrison, not for civilians. Namely, the thugs commanding the garrison have either taken them away, or even sold them to civilians they are besieging there.

With other words, and as tragic as it sounds: even the Daesh treated the population of Dayr az-Zawr better than Assadists.

But, why should anybody in the West care...

[CrowBat]

Firstly, where did you arrive at this figure? Is it pre-Civil War? Even the lower bound would be more than four times higher than the non-political prison population. Assad was not “congratulated” for detaining some 200,000 people during the course of the war and murdering more than 10,000 of them.Ah yes, excuse me: 60,000 disappeared and 200,000 others detained (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jul/04/families-syria-disappeared-demand-answers-un)...

No wonder I concluded it's pointless do discuss this war with you, long ago.

[Azor]

Ah yes, excuse me: 60,000 disappeared and 200,000 others detained (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jul/04/families-syria-disappeared-demand-answers-un)...

No wonder I concluded it's pointless do discuss this war with you, long ago.

I'm afraid that you sometimes play fast and loose with the timeline and the facts in Syria, conflating Bashar's and Hafez's policies, as well as the pre-war and wartime periods. All I asked was for clarification...

[davidbfpo]

From the NYT series of graphics on the rise and fall of ISIS, a map showing the position October 2015 to October 2017.

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2017/07/18/isis-cities-control/3ea101c72b75c1548c96a63fe4db4d6e670a0025/control-2015-2017-460.png
There are other graphics. Link:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/22/world/middleeast/isis-the-islamic-state-from-insurgency-to-rogue-state-and-back.html?

From the BBC a map showing who has what; from IHS Conflict Monitor:https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/B5F0/production/_98367564_iraq_syria_control_18_10_2017_640_16x9_m ap-nc.png
Link (part of a wider article):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-41679377

[davidbfpo]

An ICSR commentary that was republished by CNN, which raises many more questions too. Personally I cannot see anyone volunteering the funding and more to rebuild Raqqa or anywhere else in Syria. I exclude those supporting the Bashir Assad regime.
Link:http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/18/opinions/no-plan-for-what-happens-next-in-raqqa-haid-haid-opinion/index.html

[davidbfpo]

I offer this article for readers to assess themselves. It comes from a previously unheard of news website, which on my second reading maybe pro-Assad. It starts with:
A television interview of a top Qatari official confessing the truth behind the origins of the war in Syria is going viral across Arabic social media during the same week a leaked top secret NSA document (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-24/bombshell-nsa-memo-saudi-arabia-ordered-attack-damascus-international-airport-us-kno) was published which confirms that the armed opposition in Syria was under the direct command of foreign governments from the early years of the conflict.Link:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-28/shocking-viral-interview-qatar-confesses-secrets-behind-syrian-war

I asked a SME to have a peek and they responded:
I am a bit skeptical. Lots of Saudi vs Qatar disinformation going on at present. This seems part of that. Weird that the Arabic is unheard, and the translation does not mesh entirely with the claims in the article made on the basis of the same video.

[CrowBat]

Must be 'truth, nothing but the truth, so God help me' - then back in February-March 2011, everybody here in the West was sending inquiries about who's in command of the protesting in Syria... :rolleyes:

But then, there's plenty of such BS flying around the internet in regards of Syria, lately. Here another example:

Top US commander in Afghanistan Gen. Nicholson: Pentagon has seen ISIS escape Iraq & Syria battlefield for Libya and other African countries (https://twitter.com/JackDetsch_ALM/status/935535148489199618)

Yeah. And Iran is delivering ballistic missiles to the Houthis... via Oman... or hidden behind sacks of rice on board of dhowes bound for Hodeida...because the Saudis said so...

It really looks like plenty of people at the Pentagon (apparently in Tampa too) are suffering from various versions of collective hallucinations...

... though only on straight days: on uneven days, they're all suffering sudden, though temporary blindness - and can't find a single IRGC in Syria.

Perhaps somebody there might want to check air conditioning - or the Pentagon is full of people that might need some fresh air...

[CrowBat]

...ah yes: talking about the IRGC....

...and because even some of best think-tanks in the USA and the EU seem entirely unable to understand what's actually going on in Syria...

...here a somewhat 'raw' Write-up & Collection of Links on Assadist Regime and its Functions, Financing (i.e. IRGC’s Sponsoring), and Troop Strengths (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/a-write-up-collection-of-links-on-assadist-regime-and-its-functions-financing-i-e-6f3fde0fb4ed)

Should anybody be 'sceptic' about all the stuff collected and concluded there, check the following: late last year, I've put together an 'ORBAT' (Order of Battle) for Assadist forces in Syria, and published this on the ACIG.info forum (requires a registration to read). Between others, this contained an estimate for the total strength of the famed Quwwat Nimr (aka 'Tiger Force'), of about 1,600.

Early this year, a slightly updated version of the same was published on the website of Truppendienst, military magazine of the Austrian Ministry of Defence (see: Assad Streitkräfte (https://www.truppendienst.com/fileadmin/user_upload/Einzelbeitraege/2016/Syrien/15_02_17_Update/Assad_Streitkraefte_Feb17_1.pdf)) - citing a figure of 1,500 combatants for the Quwwat Nimr (unsurprising, considering their losses in Aleppo and Palmyra, in period November 2016 - January 2017).

Everybody who only could - but especially all sorts of online 'experts' on this war - were ridiculing me for that. Supposedly, 'Tiger Force has thousands of troops'.

Now lookie here: by side that the Quwwat Nimr suffered something like 50% of casualties during latest fighting against the Daesh... but it turns out I was right, and that gang is meanwhile down to only some 1,000:

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/93519851772698214

Guess, all those calling me names for my analysis and reporting about what's going on in Syria must feel 'very much confirmed' now.

[CrowBat]

Here two quick reads for fans of ideas like 'War in Syria is over' and 'Russia's victory in Syria':

The first is here (https://twitter.com/Omar_abulayla/status/941358729387225093), and the second here (https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/941354392997040129).

[CrowBat]

Reading the latest piece by Charles Lister & Dominic Nelson published by the Middle East Institute - All the President's Militias: Assad's Militiafication of Syria (http://www.mei.edu/content/article/all-president-s-militias-assad-s-militiafication-syria) - left me wondering: is it an accident that the two authors are drawing a number of conclusions that are the same like mine expressed a month ago in A Write-up & Collection of Links on Assadist Regime and its Functions, Financing (i.e. IRGC’s Sponsoring), and Troop Strengths (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/a-write-up-collection-of-links-on-assadist-regime-and-its-functions-financing-i-e-6f3fde0fb4ed)...?

The only thing they have surely missed - almost certainly because they never cross-examined financial backgrounds of the groups in question, and the 'battlefield organisation' of the Assad-Regime and the IRGC-QF (includes Hezbollah) in Syria - is the conclusion that it's the IRGC that's controlling all of the militias in question.

Reason?

Because, and as anybody with serious interest in monitoring, discussing, and understanding warfare should know - supplies (whether of money, beans, bullets or gas) are the essence of any war. No supplies = no war.

Thus, the party that pays most of the bills is also the party that's controlling the war.

In the case of Syria, and because it's paying 200,000-250,000 combatants deployed there (no matter of what nationality, and including at least 80,000, probably up to 150,000 Syrian nationals) - there's only one such party. That's the IRGC-QF.

...which in turn means that recommending the US government such things like,


...in dealing with pro-Iranian militias in Syria, the U.S. government should make greater efforts to publicly map said militias and to designate those deemed to have violated international law, in particular through maintaining direct links to the I.R.G.C.’s Quds Force...

....is missing the point, actually: except for 25,000-30,000 directly subordinated certified killers (see 'Quwwat Nimr/Tiger Force', 'Republican Guards', '4th Division', 'IV Assault Corps', 'V Corps', air force, and various HQs of 'SAA Divisions'), EVERYBODY THERE is controlled by IRGC-QF.

[CrowBat]

Let's start with a 'reminder', that the war in Syria is - contrary to what some of the media in the West is reporting - anything else than 'over'.

Right now, there's a big offensive against Idlib (run by Assadists, the IRGC/Hezbollah and Russians; see the map below); Russian bombs are still massacring civilians in Idlib (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYNJhEnwPFI) (GRAFFIC!!!!!); there's a big offensive against the Bayt Jinn Pocket (run by Assadists and Hezbollah); and Eastern Ghouta and Ra'astan-Talbiseh Pockets remain besieged and no aid is left in since November.

Thus, it's unsurprising if 40 different Syrian insurgent groups announced they are not going to negotiate in Astana, and not going to accept any kind of decisions taken there.

************

BTW, either Jaysh al-Idlib (FSyA), or Ahrar ash-Sham (AAS), or HTS (ex-JAN), has shot down an Assadist L-39ZA yesterday.

The aircraft with serial number 2139, flown by Captain Bassam Hussein, was hit by what looks like an SA-7 wire-linked to some external source of power-supply.

HTS and Assadists claim the pilot actually ejected safely (https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/945671548572233729), but was then 'killed while trying to flee' (some say even 'beheaded').

Hussein was a Sunni Arab from Talkalakh. That's a town in the Homs province, dominated by Assadists and providing plenty of troops for the Quwwat Nimr and 103rd Republican Guards Brigade. Kind of 'Qamahana of Homs'.

Video showing the MANPAD in question, and the downing of Hussein's L-39:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzjaY753v4s

[CrowBat]

...sorry: it's the Russian sponsored negotiations in Sochi (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-sochi-rebels/syrian-rebel-groups-reject-russian-sponsored-sochi-conference-idUSKBN1EJ0VK), not Astana, they're refusing.

Of course, the Russians are going to stage a big conference there - including 'even' numerous 'members of the opposition to Assad'.

However, characters in question are going to be representatives of that part of the Syrian opposition, the Assadists are ready to tolerate already since 2011 - i.e. not a single representative of any of insurgent groups.

[CrowBat]

...and the backgrounds of what's going on in Syria are getting 'better and better': there are massive accusations against Oblabla (https://www.msn.com/de-at/nachrichten/ausland/ein-deal-um-jeden-preis/ar-BBHovSf?li=AAaVEHq&ocid=spartanntp) lately (this article is in German), blaming him for preventing the prosecution against Hezbollah over drug-smuggling of cocaine (into the USA, too).

What a nice illustration on how far he went to get 'his historic nuclear deal' with Iran: compared to that, handing Syria on a silver plate to the IRGC was 'peanuts'...

Makes me wonder where are now all those from this forum, that back in 2013-2014 were hot at explaining me about 'higher national interests' of the USA.

[CrowBat]

What Went Wrong in Syria? (https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/syria-civil-war-bashar-al-assad-rebels-ambassador-robert-ford-news-18666/)


...The Syrian uprising didn’t start because of the United States in any way, and its course has followed a path largely — not entirely — by Syrians. The Syrian opposition, both political and armed, could never articulate a vision for the country that rallied a great majority of Syrians to their cause. The political opposition never laid out a transition plan —it eventually became nearly as sectarian and ethnically chauvinistic as the Syrian government, and it never demonstrated a deep commitment to human rights. It did not, for example, condemn excesses by the armed opposition and its rhetoric sometimes was anti-Kurdish. The armed opposition, desperate in its fight against Assad, agreed to coordinate on the ground with extremists, particularly the al-Qaeda linked Nusra Front.

This frightened many Syrian communities. The US specifically put the al-Nusra Front on our terrorism list in December 2012 to warn the armed opposition to stay away from the al-Nusra Front. Unfortunately, they ignored us. Moreover, as early as 2011, some Syrians hoped the American military would intervene, just as we had in Iraq in 2003, to overthrow Assad. I repeatedly warned them the US Air Force would not come, but many political opposition leaders disagreed with me and said Washington would eventually intervene. This belief forestalled their thinking about greater outreach to communities in Syria still supporting the Syrian government.


Three other mistakes we did make. In retrospect, it was not helpful to say that Assad should step aside. Observers did not appreciate the nuance in the American position that said that Assad’s future was for Syrians to decide, not Americans. Our expressing our opinion became understood to mean that the Americans would compel Assad to depart, and there was never any intention to do that. Instead, the Americans wanted a negotiation between the opposition, including moderate armed groups and the Assad government, to determine a transition government by mutual consent, as per Geneva I. My personal mistake was not resisting that August 2011 declaration by the president.

Our second mistake was in not enforcing the red line after the Assad government chemical weapons attacks in 2013. This might have deterred Assad from further use and given impetus to reach the Geneva negotiating table in 2013. The State Department was on record supporting a strike but the president made his decision.

Our third mistake was in supporting Syrian Kurds linked to the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] against ISIS instead of building an Arab force over time. We now are in the situation where our troops are stationed indefinitely in eastern Syria with enemies on all sides. Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria will all try to foster our rapid departure and the subjugation of these Syrian Kurdish allies. We will have seriously harmed our bilateral relations with Turkey, and [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan already is a difficult, very problematic leader with which to engage.
...