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SWJ Blog
01-19-2017, 01:10 PM
U.S. Officials Say Sizable Arab Force Identified For Raqqa Campaign (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/us-officials-say-sizable-arab-force-identified-for-raqqa-campaign)

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SWJ Blog
03-06-2017, 06:30 PM
Pentagon Plan to Seize Raqqa Calls for Significant Increase in U.S. Participation (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/pentagon-plan-to-seize-raqqa-calls-for-significant-increase-in-us-participation)

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SWJ Blog
03-09-2017, 08:01 PM
Three-Way Contest for Raqqa to Shape Mideast (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/three-way-contest-for-raqqa-to-shape-mideast)

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SWJ Blog
03-09-2017, 11:43 PM
U.S. Marines Deploy to Syria as Agreement on Raqqa Assault Eludes Allies (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/us-marines-deploy-to-syria-as-agreement-on-raqqa-assault-eludes-allies)

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SWJ Blog
04-13-2017, 03:10 AM
CJTFOIR Spokesman: Counter-ISIS Forces Make Gains in Raqqa, Mosul (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/cjtfoir-spokesman-counter-isis-forces-make-gains-in-raqqa-mosul)

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davidbfpo
04-30-2017, 11:50 AM
Time for a new thread starting tomorrow.

The Syria in 2017 (January to March) had 2,105 posts and 86.8k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=24850

The previous thread from September-December 2016 had 2683 posts and 64.2k views.

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 07:36 AM
Russian Syrian Express....


Watch this RORO: From Novorossiysk, flag RORO Sparta III transits Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria carrying military equipment 01:30Z

CrowBat
05-01-2017, 12:28 PM
For a complete list of links to my coverage of Assadist and Russian aerial operations over Syria in period 15 March - 30 April 2017, please see here (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-all-links-d3482be13f04).

In essence, and with exception of air strikes flown on 30 and 31 March, and 1 April 2017, all the figures are there. The link above also provides a number of links to related articles published at WarIsboring.com.

A much bigger - indeed, a 'major' feature on the SyAAF, its current condition, ORBAT, capabilities and intentions - is planned for publishing in the June 2017 volume of the magazine Air Forces Monthly.

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 04:16 PM
Russian Syrian Express......

Ф #ЧФ BSF Tapir class LST Nikolai Filchenkov 152 transits Med-bound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria for its 5th deployment in 2017

BUT she is riding a tad high for a resupply run....

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 04:37 PM
Damascus: #Assad forces shelling #Irbeen in Eastern #Damascus with heavy artillery. Many civilians were killed or wounded.

Damascus: 100 rebels wasted for nothing in Eastern #Ghouta in 3 days, while the #Assad regime bombs nonstop & tries to advance.

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 04:38 PM
NEW - In a new report, @hrw says #Assad regime has conducted x4 nerve agent attacks in #Syria since December 2016:
https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/syria0517_web_1.pdf …

AND the next Trump TLAM Response for crossing his "redline" will occur when???????

Videos of suspected chlorine IRAMs in Eastern Ghouta are here (1/31):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HXZjvHxdJE …
and here (2/21):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNF8aHxsOHo …

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 04:49 PM
Azor....heads up.....

This morning, #Russia’s military openly positioned itself with #YPG/#PKK forces in #Afrin, to deter any future #Turkey military action:

Senior INGO official told me last week how #Russia & #Assad are giving #YPG access to S #Aleppo, to unite #Afrin-Kobane-Jazira cantons.

So in one way, you’ve got to be impressed with #YPG’s political maneuvering; using #Russia *and* U.S. to protect its territorial gains.

On the other hand, you’ve got to also see the irony - an organization that detests “imperialism” is now dependent on #Russia & the U.S.

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 04:51 PM
When questioned on why @CENTCOM officers were sharing company with senior PKK figures, @statedeptspox was not particularly supportive

Seeing a U.S. SOF officer walking side-by-side with a well-known PKK Commander Sahin Cilo is just a little more THAN problematic especailly since PKK is a US named terrorist group....:

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 04:54 PM
On America’s intimate ties w. the #YPG/#PKK & ratcheting of tensions with #Turkey:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/01/tensions-rise-along-the-turkey-syria-border-pkk-ypg-erdogan?CMP=share_btn_tw …

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 04:58 PM
11 #FSA groups + Menagh Revolutionary Council of #Aleppo statement supporting Jaysh al-Islam vs. #HTS—advise Al Rahman Corps to side w/ JaI

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 05:13 PM
Azor.....HIGHLY worth reading as it goes to heart of what CrowBat and myself have been posting here......

Really read it.....
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/pkk-and-propaganda/

PKK and Propaganda

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 29 April 2017

The West’s Syria policy is beginning to unravel of its own contradictions.

The Turkish government launched airstrikes against the positions of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in north-eastern Syria and the Sinjar area of north-western Iraq in the early hours of 25 April. There were international ramifications to this because the PKK in Syria, which operates politically under the name of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and militarily as the People’s Defence Units (YPG), is the main partner of the U.S.-led Coalition against the Islamic State (IS). Turkey has protested the U.S. engaging the YPG/PKK so deeply and exclusively as its anti-IS partner, being displeased at the U.S.’s uncritical (public) stance toward the YPG, even after the YPG violated U.S.-brokered agreements on its operational theatres and used Russian airstrikes to attack Turkey- and CIA-backed rebels.

In response to Turkey’s anti-PKK operations this week, The Washington Post has hosted an op-ed by Ilham Ahmed, identified as “a co-president of the Democratic Council of Syria”.

The Democratic Council of Syria (or Syrian Democratic Council (SDC)) is the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF is a front-group for the PKK, mostly designed to assist the United States in circumventing her terrorism laws since the PKK is blacklisted; the PKK is also registered as terrorist by Turkey, the European Union, and NATO. The SDF has some Arab units attached to it, but this multi-ethnic composition is not allowed to threaten the PKK’s political monopoly within the SDF. Ms. Ahmed is also formally the chairwoman of the Movement for a Democratic Society (TEV-DEM), the ruling authority in the areas under YPG control that they call “Rojava”. Though TEV-DEM is formally a coalition, most of the ostensibly-different organizations within it are either outright PYD fronts or individuals and parties that have so little support they cannot hinder the PYD.

If these acronyms are beginning to get confusing, that is by design. As a paper for NATO’s Centre of Excellence Defence Against Terrorism noted in 2015, this is part of the “PKK’s continuous effort to escape its terrorist designation”. Ms. Ahmed’s political role, for example, makes much more sense once it is understood that she is a senior official in the PYD. That was only one of the things not mentioned in her op-ed, which was a skilled piece of propaganda that repays some study, since it helps underline some of the misconceptions currently at play over Syria.

Ms. Ahmed’s op-ed was entitled, “We’re America’s best friend in Syria. Turkey bombed us anyway,” and the entire framing of the piece is that the SDC, SDF, and YPG are “democratic, egalitarian and progressive” forces whose main mission is combatting IS in alliance with the West. Nobody denies the YPG/PKK’s success in clearing IS from areas of northern Syria—nor the massive U.S. airpower that has enabled this. The framing is deceptive, however. The YPG’s key strategic aim is the carving out of a statelet; the anti-IS mission was complementary to that, both in terms of gaining territory as the YPG displaced IS and in gaining the political credit from the West of fighting IS.

Rana Marcel recently wrote for Chatham House of the ways the PYD/YPG has tried to gain legitimacy, inside Syria and abroad. The legitimation strategy is significantly based on messaging, Marcel concluded, very carefully “tailored to different audiences”. The PYD/YPG “present[s] its fight against ISIS as a battle between universal liberal values and extremism,” and puts a particular emphasis on gender quality (its female fighters having been much sensationalized in the Western press), environmentalism, and collectivist economics. Inside its territories, the PYD/YPG plays on Kurdish nationalism. Keeping these messages separate is among the reasons the media is so heavily controlled in PYD/YPG-run areas, with independent reporting on either the party or its militia regarded as “an attempt to deliver information to terrorists”.

The op-ed, of course, contains a considerable amount of messaging against Turkey. Ms. Ahmed detects a “stark contrast” between the progressive, democratic Rojava and Turkey, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is “turning … into a totalitarian state,” while “turning a blind eye to terrorism and supporting groups that overtly espouse jihadist ideals.” Allowances made for rhetorical excess, Ms. Ahmed has a point.

There is no doubt, as Michael Koplow pointed out, that—even if there were not, as it seems there were, irregularities in the referendum itself—the recent vote to give Erdogan executive authority was grossly unfair, and the internal trend in Turkey is certainly toward a more authoritarian government. The only qualifier is that some perspective on the violence and repression of the governments overseen by secular military in the 1980s and 1990s, which the West found compatible with its interests, is helpful.

The Turkish government’s Syria policy has proven disastrous, including to itself. There is plenty of blame to go around for this. Ankara had a right to expect greater support from its NATO allies for its interests in Syria—and that these allies would not actively work against her. At the same time, while Erdogan’s turn from the West has been accelerated by Turkey’s shabby treatment over Syria, it is not reactive in origin, and Turkey’s support for Islamist rebel groups in Syria, notably Ahrar al-Sham, even when powerful nationalists were available, has contributed to the diminishing options the West now has in Syria.

The problem is that Ms. Ahmed casts these stones from a glass house. The PKK is in a weak position to be hurling accusations of terrorism and extremism. Nor does the PKK have much footing in governance terms. The PKK followed one of its own leaders through three states in Europe to assassinate him after he suggested democratic reforms within the organization, for example, and many other Kurds who joined the PKK have fallen to these purges, carried out on the most arbitrary basis. In Syria, the PYD/PKK has run a harshly authoritarian system, inherited almost wholesale from the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The deep economic and political integration between the Rojavan project and the Assad regime is among the things that did not make it into Ms. Ahmed’s op-ed, but it is one of the reasons that some Kurds compare the PYD’s rule to that of the Ba’ath Party.

Last summer, Ibrahim Biro, the leader of the main Kurdish opposition group, the Kurdish National Council (KNC or ENKS), was expelled from Rojava by PYD security forces and threatened with murder if he returned. A wave of attacks on Kurdish opposition parties began after that: party headquarters burned down, anti-PYD operatives beaten up and even killed either by mobs or the police directed by PYD regime, and a large number of arrests. In recent weeks, this crackdown has intensified as the PYD moved to formally ban all parties but its own.

Ms. Ahmed continues the effort to obfuscate the relationship between the PYD/YPG and the PKK. “[A]ny attempt to equate us with the PKK is disingenuous,” says Ms. Ahmed. She concedes that the PYD and YPG “share a founder and many intellectual values with the PKK,” though the PKK “run contrary to our core value of decentralization of power”. Even the smoothest media operation can have a bad day.

The key claim from Ms. Ahmed is that “our political and military leadership is completely separate from that of the PKK.” This is simply a lie.

In a fortuitously-timed release, the International Crisis Group also had a piece out yesterday, which noted:

The YPG and [PYD] are the PKK’s Syrian affiliates, and there is little prospect for their organic link with the mother party to change in the foreseeable future. Qandil-trained and battle-hardened PKK cadres with years—in some cases decades—of experience in the organisation’s struggle against Turkey hold the most influential positions within the YPG and, by extension, within the SDF’s chain of command; within the PYD-run civil governing bodies that administer YPG-held areas; and within the security forces, such as the Asayesh (security police), which are the backbone of that governance. While most of these cadres are Syrian Kurds (though notable roles are also played by Kurds from Turkey and Iran), loyalty to the PKK’s internal hierarchy appears to override relations to local society. Many also operate largely behind the scenes, or with titles that understate their actual authority, while nominally responsible officials lacking direct ties to the organisation are reduced to placeholders. Though this gives the PKK presence in northern Syria a local face, the reality of who wields power is evident to those living there and should be to external observers as well.

The PYD was founded in 2003 in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq, where the PKK has had a base since 1982 when it established a camp at Lolan from which it launched its war against Turkey in 1984, by Osman Ocalan, acting at the orders of his brother, Abdullah Ocalan (Apo), the PKK’s leader. Osman has since explained his role in this after he defected from the PKK in 2005.

Continued.....

The invisible holders of power in Rojava above the YPG commanders are longtime PKK operatives to a man.
Continued......


AMAZINGLY NATO knows about YPG and PKK being one and the same BUT US SOF and CENTCOM does not????

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 05:42 PM
The @HRW report on the Khan Sheikhoun attack has previously unpublished images of the filling cap from the bomb used
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVGDcReFz9k …

HRW also find's government's use of helicopter-dropped chlorine bombs more systematic; (b) pro-Assad ground-forces also now using chlorine.

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 05:53 PM
Suheil al Hassan with a Russian Major General, probably near Hama

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 05:54 PM
Turkish military digging trenches&setting up new positions in #Akcakale along #Syria border.Some parts of border walls removed
#TalAbyad

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 06:38 PM
Iran’s Diplomatic Corps: Between a Rock and the Quds Force
http://bit.ly/2oQ1uC4

YPG shelled #Azaz with artillery this evening. Probably to provoke #FSA and #Turkey.
YPG thinks they are under #US & #Russia|n protection and invulnerable now. Let's see what they try next.

A FSA Levant Front source just let me know that houses of civilians r being shelled in Azaz, shelling from Mar'anaz

Hama Battle: Central Division carried out an Inghimasi operation in area of Zalin checkpoint, killing 7 pro-Assad and seizing weapons.

S. #Aleppo: #HTS destroyed an #ATGM launcher in Tulaylat near Al-Hader firing a guided missile.

E. #Damascus: fierce clashes in #Barzeh and #Qabun where Regime made advances around Electric Station backed by shelling and airstrikes.

N. #Hama: #Lataminah area still intensively bombed, incl. by #RuAF Su-25.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.320728&lon=36.621552&z=12&m …

Hama Battle: Jaish Al-Nasr shelling pro-Regime forces in #Helfaya with dozens of Grad rockets.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.256553&lon=36.609364&z=13&m …

Hama Battle: Central Division took out with a #TOW a fuel tanker near #Maan.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.360356&lon=36.795616&z=13&m …

Main deployment areas of #Hazaras (Afghans) from pro-Assad #Fatemiyoun Brigade past months, via @historicoblog4. https://twitter.com/historicoblog4/status/858976716240424961 …

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 06:57 PM
New @bellingcat article with fully updated infographics for all factions in the #Syria-n Civil War:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/04/29/factions-syrian-civil-war/

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 07:04 PM
From yesterday....

Daraa: #Assad barrel bombs killed 10+ civilians and wounded dozens in #Daraa City today. Most victims are women and children.

Daraa: Al-Bunian Al-Marsous op. room launches retaliatory strikes vs Regime positions with artillery for civilians killed in Regime raids.

Hama Battle: many pro-Assad killed past days were from Regime strongholds (S. #Ghab, #Homs, #Latakia and #Tartus prov.).

N. #Hama: barrel bomb dropped by a #SyAF helicopter over #Lataminah, smashing building.

Syria: refugee camp for ppl from Al-Waer (#Homs) set up on Turkish border in W. #Jarablus CS. 300+ tents on 5th April, now 3 times bigger.

At least 7 Syrian @SyriaCivilDefe members were killed when pro-regime Russian jets bombed their HQ in Kafrzaita, rural Hama today.

Azor
05-01-2017, 08:42 PM
Ankara was - for years - negotiating with the PKK

And vice versa. It takes two to tango, no?


…while at the same time calling for the USA and others of its Western allies to help it solve the situation in Syria. For years. In 2011, in 2012, in 2013, in 2014 etc.

And? If the narcotics-related conflict in Mexico destroyed the Mexican state and the violence sent millions fleeing into the United States, would Turkey lend a helping hand?

The United States is also being called upon to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War, the ongoing wars in the D.R. Congo and Burundi, the transnational wars involving Boko Haram, the civil war in Myanmar, the unresolved Korean conflict, etc.


The West refused, and - and against any logic - continued to ignore the situation in Syria even when millions of Syrians poured over the border into Turkey, an then continued pushing further west and north, putting the Turkish economy under immense strain.

They poured into Lebanon and Jordan as well. Turkey has been the single largest provider of aid (at 47% of total), but Turkey’s allies have pitched in, with the United States being the second-largest donor at 27%.


And when this was not enough, the West ignored the Russians exporting at least 25.000 of their Wahhabists to Syria, where these joined the Daesh and Nusra - both of which came into being foremost thanks to the Assad regime.

You inflated the number of Russian citizens fighting for rebel groups in Syria by an order of magnitude, and did they all cross through Iran and Iraq, or take the direct route through Turkey? Yes, Assad sparked the war and yes, neither Daesh nor Nusra would have been possible without the lawless vacuum that the war created. However, Ankara allowed its southern border to be a sieve for foreign volunteers to join the FSA, Daesh and Nusra, because these were clashing with the YPG.


And when that was not enough, the West - but the USA in particular - started acting as if Assad regime is entirely irrelevant, as if there is no popular uprising nor 'civil war' in Syria, as if there is no Iranian military intervention in Syria, and as if Turkey should neither have its own national interests inside Turkey, nor for its neighbourhood.

No, the West simply had no appetite for regime change and a major ground war. Prior to the 2013 arrangement with Russia, Assad’s deterrent complicated the situation as it was suggested that some 75,000 ground troops would be required to secure his chemical weapons.

As for Iran’s intervention, Washington couldn’t make war on Iran in Syria on the one hand, and arrive at a deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program on the other. Obama clearly traded involvement in Ukraine and Syria for the JCPOA.


And when that was not enough, the US military - violating US laws - entered cooperation with the PKK, while using bases inside Turkey.

No, the cooperation began with the PYD. Despite the PKK-PYD ties, the YPG is not fighting in Turkey, and I have seen no evidence of a major flow of Turkish Kurdish volunteers to the YPG or conversely, flows of Syrian Kurdish volunteers to the PKK.


And when that was not enough, the Turks were told to shut up and tolerate the PKK, to shut up and tolerate 4 millions of Syrian refugees inside Turkey - and then also accused of cooperation with Nusra and Daesh, and this despite perfect clarity that Erdogan and his AKP are on the list of enemies of these two (visible also through the fact that the elements of Turkish society that do cooperate with the HTS, for example, stand in opposition to the AKP).

When were the Turks told to tolerate the PKK? I saw Turkish armor roll into southeastern cities weapons free and kill at least as many Kurdish civilians as PKK fighters, with little to no pressure from the West. If the Sultan and his Muslim Brotherhood are so high on the list of Daesh’s and Nusra’s target lists, then why did the Sultan place them below the YPG on his own list? Ankara was accused of collaboration with Daesh by Russia, a claim that was cried shrilly after the Su-24 was barbequed.

Of course, the West could have responded by highlighting Assad’s reliance upon commodities from Daesh-controlled parts of Syria, as the “Syrian Express” cannot keep the lights on in Damascus on its own, but then the Western publics would bay for intervention and how could the West then avoid regime change and conflict with Iran?

Supporting the YPG is dangerous for Moscow and Teheran as well, as Moscow wants to prize Turkey from NATO and has its own ethnic problems, and Iran has a chunk of “Kurdistan” as well. Few seem to be thinking this thing through.


No, it is not. The blame for genocide of Armenians is on Turkey and Turks, no doubt about this. And, sooner or later, they'll accept their responsibility.

Yeah right. I cannot claim to know many Turks, but I have yet to meet one that believes that there was a genocide.


It's just a piss-poor excuse, misused for demonizing Turkey and completely ignoring Turkish interests. An act that's ruining relations between the West and that country for decades in advance. Now tell me, please: in whose interest is that?

Should I care? As far as I am concerned, both Russia and Turkey should be walled off.


sigh... Do I really have to waste even more time with discussing that topic further in-depth, too...? Get yourself at least 'Arabs and Israelis for Dummies', and read: everything is nicely based on documentation.

Well, when you can prove a Jewish genocide of Arabs, perhaps I’ll entertain this more. I went through my pro-Palestinian phase years ago.


'Aborigines' - in the USA...? Well, thanks for a reminder, but I didn't even try to add them to the equation.

I used aboriginal in lieu of “Indian” or “American Indian”, which are inaccurate terms. Would you prefer “native” or “indigenous”? “Aborigine” is something else entirely. Again, no genocide happened. Everyone wants to have their own Holocaust it seems whilst denying the real one that took place.


And you were wrong with thinking that way. My soft spot is humanity and freedom, and opposition to any kind of oppression. It just so happens that some of Sunni Arabs are between plenty of other people who are oppressed. But then, that's something you don't think about, and thus can't understand me.

Alright. So if the United States has one bullet for humanitarian intervention, where does it use it? D.R. Congo and Burundi or Iraq and Syria?


Wrong. Their governments have such problems, because both of them need chauvinists to keep themselves in power.

In my experience, the Turks are more indoctrinated by their government than the Russians, and this includes the Turks that are secular nationalists as well. If there is one thing that Turks agree on, it is that there were no genocides and that there is an anti-Turkish conspiracy.


...What's wrong with that?

Because the West wants to specifically defeat Daesh and otherwise stay out of the war. I see leaving Assad in place and defeating Sunni Arab supremacism as mutually exclusive objectives. But I’m not on the NSC.


Are you really that poor at 'connecting dots' as to fail to understand that the Daesh could've been easily prevented by supporting the FSyA and removing Assad on time?

The problem is far too complex to make that assumption. Again, a nuclear-armed Iran was considered a worse threat than Daesh and still is.


...which wold change absolutely nothing. But then, it's meanwhile typical for you - yes, this time: 'for you' - to be unable to think beyond, 'replacing one dictator of the minority through another dictator from the same minority'.

I said “rump state”. An Alawi can never rule over the Sunni Arab majority in Syria again. However, neither will the Alawis accept possible tyranny of the majority. Another Alawi leader could enact a realarmistice so that the FSA can concentrate on Daesh and consolidate its control over Sunni Arab Syria. Of course, Russia may be content with that but Iran won’t be.

A weak and federalized state along the lines of Lebanon seems to be the answer for both Iraq and Syria, but are the Alawis and Shias disabused of the notion that they can win it all?

To paraphrase Gen. Sherman, the Iranians need to be made absolutely sick of war.

Azor
05-01-2017, 08:42 PM
What 'regular forces', PLEASE? Azor, would you like to tell me, you've really got not even that much clue about the Syrian civil war as to know a) it's not the Iranian military, but the IRGC - indeed: IRGC-QF - that's responsible for such Iranian operations like the one in Syria, b) this IRGC-QF deployed its first two 'regular' (IRGC) brigades to Syria already in 2012, and c) that Iran is running a full-blown military intervention in Syria at least since early 2013? If so, sorry, but we need not discussing this topic until you inform yourself properly.

I never said that Iran’s regular forces were involved. I am aware that this is a Pasdaran project. However, Iran could "surge" regular forces into Syria rather than just special forces and various Shia mercenaries. Their strategic lift capabilities leave much to be desired, but they could probably cobble together some sort of ad hoc naval lift if the way through Iraq is closed off, which is a big “if”. How can Iran have a “full-blown military intervention in Syria” without the regular Iranian military? That’s an Israeli riddle for you.

Suffice it to say, when someone constantly falls back on, “attend WestPoint” or “inform yourself”, the other party can be sure that they hit a nerve. Knowing the technical details of the SyAAF does not equate to knowing the weighing of options in the NSC or among the U.S. and its allies.

In conclusion, you seem to have trouble distinguishing between my discussion of the current state of affairs and my discussion of my own personal preferences. As both you and Outlaw are no doubt aware, risk-aversion often leads to negative effects, as was evident in American interventions in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria. American foreign policy is typically successful when there is total and unlimited commitment, and often that commitment is far less “total” in the end than the grudging commitments made to supposedly “limited” initiatives.

It seems that the West wants Raqqa to fall and Daesh to be driven from the field as quickly as possible so that Operation Inherent Resolve can be wrapped up, and the Coalition can return home, repair the wear and tear on their aircraft and other equipment, and replenish their stocks of PGMs. This is about as permanent a victory as the Paris Peace Accords or "Mission Accomplished", but that is the way it is.

Azor
05-01-2017, 08:55 PM
Azor.....HIGHLY worth reading as it goes to heart of what CrowBat and myself have been posting here......

Really read it.....
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/pkk-and-propaganda/

PKK and Propaganda

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 29 April 2017

The West’s Syria policy is beginning to unravel of its own contradictions.


AMAZINGLY NATO knows about YPG and PKK being one and the same BUT US SOF and CENTCOM does not????

Meh. This is like trying to stay out of a barroom brawl but just get a few kicks in on one of the brawlers. It doesn't work. Either you go in with some friends and a chair, or you stay out of it and sip a beer while you watch.

Azor
05-02-2017, 01:12 AM
Leaked video purports to show YPG/SDF forces in Raqqa countryside going into civilian houses looking to loot/steal, Raqqa Governorate, Syria

Clashes between the Free Syrian Army and the YPG/SDF on the axis of A'zaz -Maranaz, north of Aleppo

Turkish-YPG Fighting


Turkish artillery pounding YPG positions in Afrin with artillery

Howitzers and T-122 Sakarya MLRS is reportedly pounding YPG positions in Afrin


Perhaps Washington will come to the realization that there are no angels here, except the White Helmets.

Neither the YPG nor the FSA should be fighting in Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas, respectively, and any operations in mixed areas should come under strict joint oversight to prevent cleansing.

OUTLAW 09
05-02-2017, 05:42 AM
Meh. This is like trying to stay out of a barroom brawl but just get a few kicks in on one of the brawlers. It doesn't work. Either you go in with some friends and a chair, or you stay out of it and sip a beer while you watch.


BUT when you pick the wrong bar...the wrong friends...have no chair and no beer...will you then realize you might in one heck of a serious problem....THIS is where SOF and CENTCOM are now and yet I do not think they even realize it...

AND that is sad....

Maybe if they read SWC/SWJ more often????

CrowBat
05-02-2017, 05:57 AM
Everyone wants to have their own Holocaust it seems whilst denying the real one that took place.Should this be an attempt to explain I'm denying the Holocaust (of Jews, Roma and few other ethnic and religious, as well as political groups, and by German Nazis and allies in 1930s and 1940s), our exchange is herewith over.

CrowBat
05-02-2017, 07:14 AM
Another wiki-leaks affair: Somebody stole the super-modern, ultra-secret digital map of Syria, used by the CENTCOM for its operations there - and posted it on the internet....

CrowBat
05-02-2017, 07:20 AM
This is a post especially for all the fans of Brigadier-General Sohail 'Botox' Hussein. While reading it, please turn on this music (right-click, please): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGuNsiSZ9RI

One of visitors of the ACIG forum has recently drawn my attention at an increasing number of photographs showing Assadist Brig-Gen Sohail 'Botox' Hussein...'escorted'... by young, or at least cleanly shaven, 'pretty'... well, boys.

I've seen 1-2 of these too, but didn't pay attention early on, and thus wasn't aware how many are meanwhile circulating the internet. Nor, actually, that a few of the boys in question are around him all the time - or that Hussein is clearly showing his predilection for such...ahem... 'visitors'. That aside, my standpoint is that everybody is free to do whatever he/she likes to do in his off time. So, why care?

But then, our visitor made me aware of the 'practice' of 'powerful men' having 'sex with pretty boys' being quite widespread in the Middle East, and not even considered as 'homosexuality'. Apparently, even some very religious men do it, whether in Syria, or Iran, even in Afghanistan (apparently, even some US servicemen reported receiving sexual advances while serving in Iraq and Afghanistan).

Anyway... Sohail 'Botox' Hassan seems to have an entire group - i.e. a 'harem' - of 'pretty boys' around him nearly all of time. And, since the internet is meanwhile flooded with... loving images of him in their company... well: why not post a collection of at least a few of them?

Here something like 'Best of Botox Hussein and his Harem'... with love, :D

(...uuuu-uuuuu-uuuu....)

Azor
05-02-2017, 04:07 PM
Should this be an attempt to explain I'm denying the Holocaust (of Jews, Roma and few other ethnic and religious, as well as political groups, and by German Nazis and allies in 1930s and 1940s), our exchange is herewith over.

You forgot to include Polish and Soviet civilians and prisoners of war.

Often you will find that the same people claiming a "Holocaust" of women (witch trials), Arabs (by Europeans and later Israelis), and Native Americans (by Europeans, Americans and Canadians), seem to want to refute some or all aspects of the Shoah.

For instance, Russians have inflated the number of Soviet civilians and POWs who were mass murdered by the Germans, by including non-Soviet victims as well as those of Stalin's brutality, which continued unabated throughout the war. Russians have then taken the Soviet total and claimed it as a Russian total. Yet Holocaust denial and anti-Semitism abounds in Russia, and no effort is made to recognize the greater suffering of Belorussians, Ukrainians and Kazakhs, or Russia's own genocides against non-Russians.

There is a race among the groups of the living to make claims upon the dead - real and imagined - whilst denying other groups their own claims.

Do you truly think that I am accusing you of Holocaust denial? Or are you looking for an excuse to disengage?

What I am accusing you of is playing fast and loose with the history of mass murder, purely to deflect from a series of genocides perpetrated by the Turks in the 20th Century, which continue in the form of low-level war.

Azor
05-02-2017, 04:10 PM
Anyway...Sohail 'Botox' Hassan seems to have an entire group - i.e. a 'harem' - of 'pretty boys' around him nearly all of time. And, since the internet is meanwhile flooded with...loving images of him in their company... well: why not post a collection of at least a few of them?

Nothing wrong with that. You may also recall the quirks of such previous warlords as General Butt Naked in Liberia. These characters would be laughable if they weren't so lethal...

As homosexuality no longer exists in Iran according to its former president and various crane operators, perhaps it still does in Syria?

OUTLAW 09
05-02-2017, 04:40 PM
Nothing wrong with that. You may also recall the quirks of such previous warlords as General Butt Naked in Liberia. These characters would be laughable if they weren't so lethal...

As homosexuality no longer exists in Iran according to its former president and various crane operators, perhaps it still does in Syria?

Definitively alive and well in AFG and Iraq...

OUTLAW 09
05-02-2017, 04:48 PM
Carpet bombings by #Kremlin regime war planes on #Hama towns today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZppWKb2a9k&feature=youtu.be#

At Merkel presser, #Putin called it "ceasefire".

Putin says he doesn't interfere in domestic affairs of other countries.

AND as Syria and eastern Ukraine continue to be in a deep war...we have the American FP bogged down in a debate on the "Civil war"?????

TRUMP (yesterday): I would've used my dealmaking skills to prevent the Civil War

TRUMP (today): I can't get anything through a GOP Congress

YET after his "red line" TLAM strike..he has done nothing more in Syria....

Russian MoD denies @hrw report that Soviet-era bombs were used in chemical attack, says not 1 Western inspector has visited site in Syria.

OUTLAW 09
05-02-2017, 05:31 PM
Syria: after these advances Western/Jordanian backed rebels have entered #DeirEzzor governorate from the SW, controlling most of the desert

Syria: Maghaweer al-Thawra (#FSA) rebels have captured Jabal Ghrab, wadi Swab, Muayzilah & the T3 Pumping station in the Syrian desert

Hama : Regime barrel bomb massacre in #Latmenah as a mother, father and four children were killed by a helicopter.

OUTLAW 09
05-02-2017, 05:42 PM
Afrin today.

#Kremlin regime soldiers patrolling with #PKK-affiliated fighters.

Putin's middle finger to Erdogan, one day before the visit.

Azor
05-02-2017, 06:27 PM
After Gorbachev stopped the military cooperation with Syria, and stopped all the arms deliveries too, in 1988, Damascus stopped paying all debts to the USSR, rumoured at between US15 and 17 billion. From 1988 until today, Syrians didn't pay a single cent of that debt back to Moscow.

According to SIPRI, Russia provided more than 50% of the value of the arms transferred to Syria from 1992 to 2013, with data being scarce for 2014 and unavailable for 2015-2015. Russia was the single largest transferor in 2002-2003 and 2009-2013, or for one third of that period. Has the Syrian account been up to date? Certainly not. But such is the cost of doing business in the arms trade, and neither Yeltsin nor Putin have had problems providing corporate welfare to Russian defense contractors.

With regard to Tartus, it is effectively a glorified dock. Russia has been unable to even thinly spread its assets across its existing bases, let alone take advantage of naval facilities in Syria and Vietnam. Recently, the Russian Navy had to cannibalize its Black Sea Fleet to reinforce its Baltic Fleet, and deploying the naval group off of Syria has been a strain.

As stated previously, I referred to “client” in a very loose sense given that Russia’s international relationships are far fewer and far weaker than those of the United States, and I won’t belabor the point further.


How often have the Russians violated the airspace of any NATO country with their IFF-transponders off since that ROE was introduced, back in 2015? How do you provide proofs for 0?

What new ROEs have been introduced? Thus far Russia has offered to turn transponders on if all NATO aircraft (i.e. spy planes) will do likewise.

In 2017, there were at least six incidents of Russian military aircraft flying in international Baltic airspace with their transponders off.

In 2016, there were 110 intercepts in the Baltic area, including at least four where Russian transponders were off, and six violations of Estonian airspace. In addition, there were ten violations of Bulgarian airspace and at least one unsafe interception by Russia over the Black Sea. NATO intercepts were lower for 2016 than 2014 and 2015, but are still far above 2013 levels.


…it's simply silly to insinuate whatever kind of 'what ifs' about a country with the GNP of Spain and its ability to challenge the USA in an open military confrontation. Even more so in an area 2000 kilometres away from its borders, where it has NO bases, nor even any true allies.

Well, Russia may be “Upper Volta”, but it still has “rockets”, does it not? This country has directly challenged American interests since 2008, and has invaded and partitioned two prospective American allies.

Regardless, you continue to have difficulty reading what I actually write. I never said that Russia would attack American or Coalition forces in Syria. What I did assert was that Russia probably would ignore a no-fly zone, no-drive zone and/or a blockade, and dare the Coalition to fire on it first. Despite lacking true allies, Russia would certainly have allies of convenience in Damascus and Teheran.

Consider the Berlin Airlift, when American and British forces were faced with overwhelming Soviet quantitative and qualitative superiority, frayed lines of communication and only perhaps two dozen atomic bombs were available to the U.S. once the B-29s had been deployed. The Allies violated the blockade peacefully, adhered to pre-blockade arrangements as much as possible, and were prepared to lose men and machines to Soviet aggression and the weather, if need be. The airlift was a logistical feat for the British and French, and humiliated the far stronger Soviet Union.

After the fall of Qaddafi and the refusal of Obama to treat him as an equal partner, Putin has been determined to humiliate the U.S. despite Russia’s weaknesses. Were the U.S. to establish a blockade or NFZ/NDZ, I believe that Putin would move heaven and earth to violate it and risk the lives of Russian sailors and pilots doing so.


Assad's air force is grounded, and he realizes he's left without troops to continue the war - which is why Iran launched its military intervention in Syria, in 2012. So what?

And? It all boils down to whether the U.S. would fire upon Russian and Iranian blockade runners.


Tehran concluded this already in 2011. Moscow didn't care until July 2015. As of 2013, neither was in a position to do anything about this.

Of course Moscow cared. It just had bigger fish to fry. Assuming that the blockade did not include airstrikes on Assad’s ground forces, it would have taken the rebels some time to defeat Assad, during which Moscow and Teheran could have tried to run men and materiel through the blockade, by air, sea and overland through Iraq, which was not exactly an American ally in 2013.


…didn't happen (at least not in 2013; otherwise it would've been reported). While, the Pentagon and various of NATO allies stopped something like 15 minutes before from launching a military operation against Assad.

If Obama had launched TLAMs or established a blockade in 2013, Assad would have been screaming for help.


…didn't happen (at least not in 2013). And was also not intended by the Russians.

Right. We are talking about your alternate timeline where Obama launches TLAMs and establishes a blockade.


This happened only in 2015 and then for reasons I explained above: Putler went to Syria because he was sure Oblabla wouldn't. Indeed, because the Iranians told him that Oblabla promised Tehran he wouldn't. And Iranians could do so because Oblabla told them so - in exchange for his silly nuclear deal, signed... drums... in July 2015.

The Iranians would have had this prerequisite long before the JCPOA was drafted, and would have signaled Obama if he had intervened in Syria in 2013.


And then, all provided you can still follow, explain me please: who can, say, prevent Turkey from closing its airspace for all Russian aircraft if it likes to do so? (And keep in mind: Turkey did close its airspace for Russian military aircraft, ever since September 2015). Who can prevent Jordan from closing its airspace for all Iranian aircraft? And: who was in control of the Iraqi government as of 2013?

Russia could take an alternate air route with refueling, rely upon sealift or transit via Iraq, which was led by Maliki, who would probably have allowed it. After all, Iraq currently hosts Iranian special forces and has sent Iranian-led Iraqi Shia militias to Syria.

CrowBat
05-02-2017, 07:41 PM
You forgot to include...That was no invitation for more polemic, but a very serious, 'closed' question: i.e. I expect a clear yes or no reply.

CrowBat
05-02-2017, 07:45 PM
Russian MoD denies @hrw report that Soviet-era bombs were used in chemical attack, says not 1 Western inspector has visited site in Syria.
...as if one needs any 'Western inspector' - to get killed by old Russian bombs: there are enough photos and videos of what are VKS fighter-bombers dropping around.

Except of ODAB-500s, the 'newest' stuff are FAB-500M-62s: 62 stands for the year of their design... (1962).

BTW, the VKS now has at least one A-50 SRDLO (Russian for AWACS) in Syria. The source is 'murky', to put it mildly, but the photo appears to be genuine: it was taken near Hmemmem AB, on 29 April.

This, in turn, is 'little surprising', considering number of sorties flown every day is indicating that the Russians meanwhile have about 50 combat aircraft - mind: combat aircraft, i.e. fighter-bombers alone - deployed at Hmemmem.

Azor
05-02-2017, 08:05 PM
That was no invitation for more polemic, but a very serious, 'closed' question: i.e. I expect a clear yes or no reply.

No

davidbfpo
05-02-2017, 09:13 PM
From an Israeli source, citing a speech on April 23rd 2017:
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri calls on his followers in al-Sham (greater Syria) to abandon the concept of territorial control and concentrate on guerilla warfare, joined by other Muslims around the globe
Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/21198

Azor
05-02-2017, 10:08 PM
The following testimony was presented to the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs on April 27, 2017, by Charles Lister

http://www.mei.edu/content/article/testimony-syria-after-missile-strikes-policy-options

Selected excerpts and my comments - Part 1/2:


Whereas the U.S. decision not to act in August 2013 was justified at the time by a Russian-facilitated deal to remove and destroy Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile, events in Khan Sheikhoun demonstrated starkly that that deal had been a ruse. Israeli intelligence now assesses that Bashar al-Assad has secretly retained at least three tons of Sarin nerve agent, enough to kill many thousands more people, should he choose to do so. This was not much of a secret. Officials in the U.S. government and all of our principal allies have known as much for years.

In August 2013, Assad had at least 1,000 tons of chemical weapons, including several hundred of Sarin. According to the DOD (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R42848.pdf), securing Assad’s stockpiles by force would have required the deployment of up to 75,000 soldiers, including thousands of regular and special forces on the ground in Syria, and an air and naval campaign far larger than the 60 aircraft and 7 ships required for Operation Odyssey Dawn in 2011. Not only did the 2013 “Framework” destroy or remove nearly all of Assad’s CWs, it dismantled their infrastructure and delivery systems. The deal prevented Assad’s formidable arsenal from being transferred to Hezbollah for use against Israel, or falling under Al Qaeda or Daesh control, which U.S. military intervention may not have been able to achieve. Unfortunately, the deal ensured Assad’s survival and continued war against his own citizens, with increased Iranian and Russian support.


The Syrian crisis is immensely complicated – I have spent virtually every single day since March 2011 trying my best to understand it. Despite this very clear complexity, one thing ought to be simple: the continued presence of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus as Syria’s self-proclaimed President does not promise any semblance of hope for the country’s future…the single biggest push and pull factor for both Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Syria, is the Assad regime’s continued survival and the brutal violence it unleashes upon its people.

I agree. Yet behind Assad is Iran, much as Iran was behind Maliki’s efforts to marginalize the Sunni Arabs of Iraq. Therefore, we arrive at the second humanitarian compromise in order to minimize the threat of WMDs: permitting Iran to pursue a sectarian war in Iraq and Syria in return for an agreement on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.



In April 2017, the Assad regime finds itself sat more comfortably in Damascus than at any point since the start of the crisis in the Spring of 2011. Its use of banned chemical weapons a few weeks ago is almost certainly a result of that confidence.

I doubt Assad is comfortable, as he sits only at the pleasure of Teheran, whose calculus may well change. His recent use of Sarin was an unambiguous test of the new U.S. administration’s interest in Syria and resolve.


It is also important not to forget history. To claim that Bashar al-Assad was never our enemy would be to brush over his extraordinary and widely documented role in empowering ISIS’s predecessor movements in Iraq, who fought against and killed American soldiers for years on end.

This is in addition to Syria’s invasions of Israel and Lebanon, ties to U.S. adversaries Iran and North Korea, support for designated terrorist group Hezbollah, and attempt to develop nuclear weapons.


So what now? Clearly the status quo is not working…Major foreign intervention in search of regime change, however, carries far too many risks and promises only further chaos. What is needed is a policy that sits in-between. Determined U.S. leadership backed up by the credible and now proven threat of force presents the best opportunity in years to strong-arm actors on the ground into a phase of meaningful de-escalation, out of which eventually, a durable negotiation process may result.

Specifics will be needed. Is the U.S. supposed to partition the country into ethnic and sectarian enclaves and then use force to prevent one group from aggressing against another? What about the mixed areas on the frontlines? Should the U.S. be neutral except where Al Qaeda and Daesh are concerned, but ignore the foreign Shia mercenaries marauding on behalf of Assad? How can the U.S. ensure compliance from Iran and Russia? Currently, the regime is determined to reconquer the country, despite being reliant upon foreign funding, manpower and materiel to do so. How can its calculus be changed without changing the regime itself?


More punitive military strikes and other assertive acts of diplomacy will be inevitable, but if anything is now clear, it is that the U.S. has more freedom of action in Syria than the Obama administration was ever willing to admit. Opponents of limited U.S. intervention who have long and confidently pronounced the inevitability of conflict with Russia are now faced with the reality that Moscow failed to lift a finger when American missiles careered toward Assad regime targets. This is not to suggest that Russia plans to sit back and watch the United States threaten or undermine its proxy, Assad.

Exactly. Moscow will tolerate a slap on the wrist that does not materially alter the balance of forces, but not a decapitating blow.


Beyond Russia though, Iran is arguably a far greater challenge and obstacle to progress…Keeping Assad in place also secures Iranian hegemony through Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut and into the Palestinian Territories. Beyond being a great victory for Iran, that also represents a major defeat to American interests and influence in the region. It also risks inflaming further, existing great power competition involving Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Agreed.


Russia’s intervention in Syria saved Assad from possible defeat, that is clear. However, the more secure Assad feels, the less he appears restrained by Russian instruction. In other words, Russia’s leverage over Assad may be declining…As one prominent Russian in Moscow recently told me in Europe, even Russia’s own Spetsnaz special forces have come to respect one such Iran-backed terrorist group — Hezbollah — more than the Syrian Army itself.

Russia is likely interested in a negotiated settlement and a partitioned country with a “frozen conflict”, whereas Iran is determined to secure total victory over every inch of Syria.


As things stand today, Syria can be divided up into dozens of semi-contained conflicts, every one of which is individually unique. Assad may be more secure than ever, but he is a very long way from a full territorial re-conquest of his country. That objective may take a decade, or not even be possible at all. Despite this dissolution into multiple conflicts, the solution to Syria is not to be found in partition. In fact, that is one of the only issues that the opposition and the regime currently agree on. Despite the intensity and complexity of conflict, Syrians on both sides of the conflict still share a shared sense of Syrian identity. Although hard to see through the bullets and gas, this is a crucially important realization. Syria’s non-jihadist opposition, as varied, complicated and imperfect as it is, remains a force of 80,000-100,000 heavily-armed men. A substantial majority of these men, and their sons, are not considering giving up their struggle anytime soon. That is also a crucially important realization. It will only be by addressing these kinds of realities that we will begin to define a meaningful policy.

They may not have a choice. The Sunni Arab majority will not accept minority Alawi rule; neither will the Alawis, Christians and Druze accept a possible tyranny of the majority by way of democracy (such as in Iraq). Moreover, the Kurds are not about to surrender a de facto independent Rojava, which ideology aside is not dissimilar to Iraq’s KAR.

Azor
05-02-2017, 10:10 PM
The following testimony was presented to the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs on April 27, 2017, by Charles Lister

http://www.mei.edu/content/article/testimony-syria-after-missile-strikes-policy-options

Selected excerpts and my comments - Part 2/2:


A holistic strategy is required that treats all the various symptoms as inter-linked components of a very big problem. The United States can choose to make big decisions and spend substantial amounts of resources now, or we can continue today’s strategy and face virtual certainty of having to come back and do even more to try to fix an even greater problem several years from now.

Washington will go with choice “b”. Even if a commitment on the order of Western Europe, Japan and South Korea is the most sensible choice, Americans will balk at the up-front costs. The war in Afghanistan is not even over, but according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, development aid to Afghanistan has already cost the U.S. more than the Marshall Plan in equivalent U.S. dollars. That is a damning indictment of “leading from behind”, leaving a “light footprint” or whatever American bureaucrats call a limited and restricted intervention. Note that today, Japan, Western Europe and South Korea are all American allies and host U.S. forces; they all contribute to American and global freedom, peace and prosperity. Conversely, we all know what losing the peace meant in the former Confederate states, Germany, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, and what limiting the war effort meant in South Vietnam.


There is no perceivable opening for a grand, nationwide settlement to the conflict in Syria. As such, the best available interim solution is to introduce calm to geographically distinct zones in Syria, in which local Syrian actors and external actors with influence in the area can agree to freeze existing lines of conflict...In today’s dynamics, five such zones come to mind: (1) the existing zone under Turkish influence in northern Aleppo; (2) a new zone under Turkish influence in northern Idlib; (3) the formalization of a zone of stability under SDF influence in northeastern Syria; (4) a new zone of stability in southern and southwestern Syria, under the influence of Jordan and Israel; and (5) a new, future zone of stability in eastern Syria, divided between the Assad regime and newly formed, local U.S.-backed anti-ISIS forces…These zones of calm would face multiple determined spoilers, particularly Assad himself.

Regarding:

(2) What about the existing pro-Assad zone around Aleppo and the Kurdish zone around Afrin? Assad would have to give up Aleppo to Turkish/FSA forces and the Kurds would be surrounded by Turkish or FSA forces on all sides of their enclave.

(3) Yet there is evidence of ethnic and sectarian cleansing by the YPG against non-Kurds, and Turkey would not be particularly tolerant about a PKK-aligned statelet bordering its restive southeastern Kurdish region.

(4) Why Israel? Nothing brings Syrians of all ethnicities and faiths closer together than the presence of Israeli forces on their soil.

(5) This is a terrible idea. Having Shias and Kurds occupy Sunni Arab areas is a recipe for endless insurgency. It would be preferable to cede this area to Jordan as well. Assad should be confined to his western enclave.


The United States must urgently acknowledge and act to confront the malign activities of Iran in exploiting pre-existing instability in the Middle East to undermine its rivals and to establish hegemonic influence for itself.

Yet confronting Iran brings with it serious risks, such as the abrogation of the JCPOA with the looming cloud of war to disarm Iran, as well as a spoiling of the anti-Daesh efforts in northern Iraq, which are dependent upon Shia militias subject to a great deal of Iranian influence. In addition to Iraq, Iran could also make life difficult for the U.S. in Afghanistan and turn Hezbollah’s attention back toward Israel.

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 04:20 AM
Azor...I had already seen the Lister comments via social media...BUT here is the interesting thing...outside of social media comments...US MSM and the Trump WH NSC basically ignored his comments...

AND neither Trump WH NSC nor CENTCOM nor US MSM is actively questioning the American support to and for a Communist inspired and led Kurdish PKK a US named terror group...

Example it took social media pointing out that a proRussian mercenary who had fought in the Russian mercenary army in eastern Ukraine and joined the US Army and was on active duty...then finally a single MSM outlet picked it up...and it ended there...

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 04:25 AM
As long as the Trump WH and Trump himself is in total chaos there will be no US FP on just about anything.....

Trump called Obama weak on #SouthChinaSea patrols. 100 days in, he seems to have halted them entirely.

Fmr AG Yates warned WH Jan26 that Flynn could be compromised by Russia. Did Trump lie on Feb10 when asked about it?

Sally Yates to contradict White House about Flynn & Russia. She told WH on Jan 26; Feb 10 Trump said he knew nothing
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/sally-yates-michael-flynn-testimony-contradict/#

Lies..bluffs and "Wag the Dog moments" are not FP....and Assad is still using chemicals...

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 08:45 AM
Playlist of videos relating to the April 2nd 2017 bombing of Maaret al Numan national hospital
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPC0Udeof3T4pxdLEPCTgvDw66-1bYnGr#

Azor
05-03-2017, 03:40 PM
As long as the Trump WH and Trump himself is in total chaos there will be no US FP on just about anything.....

Trump called Obama weak on #SouthChinaSea patrols. 100 days in, he seems to have halted them entirely.

Fmr AG Yates warned WH Jan26 that Flynn could be compromised by Russia. Did Trump lie on Feb10 when asked about it?

Sally Yates to contradict White House about Flynn & Russia. She told WH on Jan 26; Feb 10 Trump said he knew nothing
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/sally-yates-michael-flynn-testimony-contradict/#

Lies..bluffs and "Wag the Dog moments" are not FP....and Assad is still using chemicals...

http://mikeduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/soap-box.jpg

Azor
05-03-2017, 04:12 PM
Azor...I had already seen the Lister comments via social media...BUT here is the interesting thing...outside of social media comments...US MSM and the Trump WH NSC basically ignored his comments...

AND neither Trump WH NSC nor CENTCOM nor US MSM is actively questioning the American support to and for a Communist inspired and led Kurdish PKK a US named terror group...

We both know that the MSM rarely gets war and international politics right, if ever.

By Lister on the Kurdish Question in Syria:


The United States should use its significant diplomatic leverage with Turkey to push for consideration of a ceasefire with the PKK inside Turkey, which may help ease tensions with the YPG across the border in Syria. As part of a package deal with Turkey, the United States could offer to include a select portion of its anti-Assad forces – the majority of which have already been vetted either by the CIA or by CENTCOM – into a broader offensive on Raqqa. This would be a similar arrangement to that worked out for Mosul, where zones of responsibility were pre-arranged between rival or competing factions.

Yet in his recommendations, Lister calls for:


...the formalization of a zone of stability under SDF influence in northeastern Syria.

Well, which is it?

Should the U.S. resolve the Turkish-Kurdish conflict first before advancing on Raqqa?

If FSA units are to be included in the SDF to dilute the YPG's influence, then should the U.S. resolve the FSA-Assad conflict first? Or after the Turkish-Kurdish one?

Lister has a very good grasp of the situation, but he is unable to proffer good recommendations because there are too many moving parts.

He makes the mistake of suggesting a level of U.S. involvement "that sits in-between" regime change and the status quo. As you may have noticed in South Vietnam, and which younger Americans have noticed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, there is no "in-between".

The U.S. had the ability to effectively deny all of these countries to their adversaries with little effort, but it could not establish strong and friendly states without making a total commitment. Note that the Marshall Plan was less expensive than the development costs for Afghanistan, adjusted for inflation.

Moreover, the "zones of calm" that Lister calls for, backed ostensibly by U.S. airpower, are unprecedented in that such a dynamic with internal and external warring parties has never occurred before:


In Iraq, Iraqi forces had already been decimated by the war with Iran (financially) and then the Gulf War, both of which involved major ground combat
In Bosnia, the Bosnian Serbs were already under pressure to negotiate, including by Yugoslavia
In Kosovo, the Serbs believed that a land invasion was imminent and were under pressure from Russia


What is wrong with the status quo, if supplies to the vetted FSA units are increased and efforts are made to reorganize the SDF to include more non-Kurds?

From a public relations perspective, Daesh will probably need to be defeated on the battlefield first before the U.S. can quietly restructure the situation. If Daesh is not a priority, there will be domestic confusion and anger.

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 04:22 PM
We both know that the MSM rarely gets war and international politics right, if ever.

By Lister on the Kurdish Question in Syria:



Yet in his recommendations, Lister calls for:



Well, which is it?

Should the U.S. resolve the Turkish-Kurdish conflict first before advancing on Raqqa?

If FSA units are to be included in the SDF to dilute the YPG's influence, then should the U.S. resolve the FSA-Assad conflict first? Or after the Turkish-Kurdish one?

Lister has a very good grasp of the situation, but he is unable to proffer good recommendations because there are too many moving parts.

He makes the mistake of suggesting a level of U.S. involvement "that sits in-between" regime change and the status quo. As you may have noticed in South Vietnam, and which younger Americans have noticed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, there is no "in-between".

The U.S. had the ability to effectively deny all of these countries to their adversaries with little effort, but it could not establish strong and friendly states without making a total commitment. Note that the Marshall Plan was less expensive than the development costs for Afghanistan, adjusted for inflation.

Moreover, the "zones of calm" that Lister calls for, backed ostensibly by U.S. airpower, are unprecedented in that such a dynamic with internal and external warring parties has never occurred before:


In Iraq, Iraqi forces had already been decimated by the war with Iran (financially) and then the Gulf War, both of which involved major ground combat
In Bosnia, the Bosnian Serbs were already under pressure to negotiate, including by Yugoslavia
In Kosovo, the Serbs believed that a land invasion was imminent and were under pressure from Russia


What is wrong with the status quo, if supplies to the vetted FSA units are increased and efforts are made to reorganize the SDF to include more non-Kurds?

From a public relations perspective, Daesh will probably need to be defeated on the battlefield first before the U.S. can quietly restructure the situation. If Daesh is not a priority, there will be domestic confusion and anger.

And again here is what you simply are not getting...you can "defeat" IS on the ground...BUT again in Iraq I watched the US military claim they "defeated" AQI by 2008/2009...only to have them disperse and go into a very good form of guerrilla warfare working together with the other Sunni insurgent groups....and actually began beating up on Army units in well
carried out swarm attacks....

Which is what both Lister and Orton are pointing towards again happening in both Iraq right now and is coming in Syria...

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 04:28 PM
http://mikeduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/soap-box.jpg

I will remain on my soap box as long as US FP is operating under the Trump Principle of "Wag the Dog".....which is neither a strategy or a FP and simply uses any action to deflect and or direct attention away from a lack of a strategy and or FP....on anything!

Weeks After Massive US Bomb, IS Still on Air in Afghanistan
by Voice of America

An article here in SWJ.....


Almost three weeks after the United States dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Eastern Afghanistan, the Islamic State group continues to show battlefield resilience as well as run its FM radio channel in the area.

THIS Azor is exactly what I posted previously ..you simply cannot "defeat IS militarily on the ground".....they will simply fade as they did in Iraq back into guerrilla warfare....

Actually if one really does reread Mao and his writings on guerrilla warfare....IS is in a phase two actually possibly a full phase three and when pushed hard simply backs back down to a phase two and or phase one guerrilla war..if pushed harder.

AND here is the key in both Iraq and Syria...there will be a lot of disaffected Sunni's remembering the ethnically cleansing by Shia militias or sectarian genocide conducted by Shia's in general and West standing by doing nothing and they will then support quietly that new guerilla war...

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 06:17 PM
Usage of Soviet-produced 240-mm rocket-assisted cluster mortar shells (3-O-8 "Nerpa") continues in Eastern Ghouta

Azor
05-03-2017, 08:01 PM
And again here is what you simply are not getting...you can "defeat" IS on the ground...BUT again in Iraq I watched the US military claim they "defeated" AQI by 2008/2009...

Please read my comments fully before replying. I specifically and explicitly referred to defeating Daesh “on the battlefield”. If you have read my past comments, you will see that I have consistently asserted that Sunni Arab supremacism cannot be defeated by other ethnic and sectarian groups nor without resolving Sunni Arab grievances. I have also asserted that only Sunni Arab egalitarians, such as elements of the Free Syrian Army and Iraq’s Golden Division, can defeat Sunni Arab supremacists such as Al Qaeda and Daesh.

However, there must be the perception of victory over Daesh before Americans will countenance efforts to deal with the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.

As a historical parallel, in 1944 Stalin delayed the Red Army’s drive towards Germany in order to conquer Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. He did not have to justify this deviation, or his vision beyond Germany’s defeat. Yet what Briton would have tolerated Churchill pondering conflict with the Soviet Union, or Operation Unthinkable?

Thus, we need a publicity stunt so that the real work can begin. Who better to deliver on that then the current president?


I will remain on my soap box as long as US FP is operating under the Trump Principle of "Wag the Dog"...which is neither a strategy or a FP and simply uses any action to deflect and or direct attention away from a lack of a strategy and or FP...on anything!

Lister is pleased with the airstrike on Shayrat.

Regardless, millions of Americans now believe in a new lost cause: the “stolen” election of 2016. Prior to the campaign, I had considered the current president to be vain, vapid and venal. Now, I would say that his former opponent exhibits those qualities to a far worse degree.


Almost three weeks after the United States dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Eastern Afghanistan, the Islamic State group continues to show battlefield resilience as well as run its FM radio channel in the area.

And? One could question whether the MOAB is more powerful than the MOP. I didn’t realize that a single MOAB was supposed to defeat Daesh in Afghanistan. Why did Obama keep it in storage for so long, then?


Actually if one really does reread Mao and his writings on guerrilla warfare...IS is in a phase two actually possibly a full phase three and when pushed hard simply backs back down to a phase two and or phase one guerrilla war. If pushed harder.

Isn’t guerrilla warfare and subversion preferable to conventional mobile warfare?


AND here is the key in both Iraq and Syria...there will be a lot of disaffected Sunni's remembering the ethnically cleansing by Shia militias or sectarian genocide conducted by Shia's in general and West standing by doing nothing and they will then support quietly that new guerrilla war...

Curious. I would imagine that they would remember the bloody hands of Iran and Russia, to say nothing of China watching with disinterest, while the West at least made some effort. The leading Sunni Arab state is a U.S. ally, whereas Iran and Russia are adversaries.

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 08:02 PM
Second Russian military death in Syria in as many days.
http://www.interfax.ru/world/561062?utm_source=topmain#

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 08:09 PM
Is it a surprise that the 2 least honest & reliable sources, Putin & Trump, would have 2 different versions of their phone call on Syria?

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 08:15 PM
English translation of #Erdoğan's senior adviser's threats on #Chinese radio @criturk to hit U.S. forces in #Syria.
http://www.criturk.fm/cevik-cri-turk-fme-konustu-ak-partide-esas-degisim-il-ilce-ve-belediye-teskilatlarinda-olacak/#

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 08:17 PM
In recent weeks, #Assad (backed by #Russia) has pursued an escalatory campaign of bombing hospitals, IDP camps & civil defense in #Idlib.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 04:49 AM
Please read my comments fully before replying. I specifically and explicitly referred to defeating Daesh “on the battlefield”. If you have read my past comments, you will see that I have consistently asserted that Sunni Arab supremacism cannot be defeated by other ethnic and sectarian groups nor without resolving Sunni Arab grievances. I have also asserted that only Sunni Arab egalitarians, such as elements of the Free Syrian Army and Iraq’s Golden Division, can defeat Sunni Arab supremacists such as Al Qaeda and Daesh.

However, there must be the perception of victory over Daesh before Americans will countenance efforts to deal with the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.

As a historical parallel, in 1944 Stalin delayed the Red Army’s drive towards Germany in order to conquer Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. He did not have to justify this deviation, or his vision beyond Germany’s defeat. Yet what Briton would have tolerated Churchill pondering conflict with the Soviet Union, or Operation Unthinkable?

Thus, we need a publicity stunt so that the real work can begin. Who better to deliver on that then the current president?



Lister is pleased with the airstrike on Shayrat.

Regardless, millions of Americans now believe in a new lost cause: the “stolen” election of 2016. Prior to the campaign, I had considered the current president to be vain, vapid and venal. Now, I would say that his former opponent exhibits those qualities to a far worse degree.



And? One could question whether the MOAB is more powerful than the MOP. I didn’t realize that a single MOAB was supposed to defeat Daesh in Afghanistan. Why did Obama keep it in storage for so long, then?



Isn’t guerrilla warfare and subversion preferable to conventional mobile warfare?



Curious. I would imagine that they would remember the bloody hands of Iran and Russia, to say nothing of China watching with disinterest, while the West at least made some effort. The leading Sunni Arab state is a U.S. ally, whereas Iran and Russia are adversaries.

You really need to rethink this comment...sorry but a conventional war one can in fact "militarily end" but guerrilla warfare....can take decades BTW...ask the US Army about VN experiences...


Isn’t guerrilla warfare and subversion preferable to conventional mobile warfare?

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 04:52 AM
Assad officially hands over Syrian army command / field troops/ to Iran, and he even signed it.

CrowBat
05-04-2017, 06:51 AM
US military official suffers slip of the tongue and says PKK is part of the SDF (https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2017/05/03/us-military-official-suffers-slip-of-the-tongue-and-says-pkk-is-part-of-the-sdf)


...In response to a question regarding the Turkish attitude against the YPG during press briefing on Wednesday, Colonel John Dorrian, the spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition against Daesh, accidentally acknowledged that the PKK was part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

"But with regard to the PKK, they are a part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the Syrian Arab Coalition is a part of the Syrian Democratic Forces as well. The forces that are isolating Raqqa are now largely made up of Syrian Arabs, but they are a part of the Syrian Democratic Forces," he said.
...

Ah, speaking truth is now called 'slip in the tongue' in Pentagon's jargon?

Good to know that.

Guess, this happened to the CENTCOM Because they are in a rush. Namely, the CIA seems to be active in Syria again:

Analysis: The Free Idlib Army’s Role in the U.S. Battle Against Al-Qaida in Syria (https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/05/03/analysis-the-free-idlib-armys-role-in-the-u-s-battle-against-al-qaida-in-syria)

...and that's 'no good news' for any of generals currently trying to run the US foreign politics in the Middle East.

CrowBat
05-04-2017, 07:04 AM
Assad officially hands over Syrian army command / field troops/ to Iran, and he even signed it.
Actually, that's the page 3 of a document stating the following:

Page 1:

Syrian Arab Republic
General Command for the Army and Armed Forces
Organization & Admin Branch
Organization and Arming Division
No. 1455
Date: / /1438 AH
Corresponding to 4 April 2017 CE
Memorandum
Dear Lieutenant General [/field marshal]: the general commander for the army and armed forces, president of the republic :
- Implementing the decision of the brigadier general, the deputy general commander, deputy head of the council of ministers, minister of defence, on the memorandum of the leadership of the popular army- operations and training division- no. 45 on date 19 January 2017 guaranteeing the formation of a committee headed by the organization and administration branch in order to organize the forces working with the Iranian side within the organization and propriety of the local defence units in the provinces and put forward suggestions to your excellence.

- The committee specified by admin order no. 562/67 date 11 February 2017 held a number of meetings and studied and discussed the situation from different angles, including organization, leadership, combat and material guarantee, rights of the martyrs, wounded and disappeared, sorting out the affairs of those commissioned who have avoided obligatory and reserve service and deserters, and the civilians working with the Iranian side. And it culminated in the following suggestions:

1. Organizing the Syrian personnel (military and civilian) who are fighting with the Iranian side within the local defence units in the provinces according to the following table.

2. Sorting out the affairs of the military personnel (deserters) and those commissioned who have avoided obligatory and reserve service, and transferring them, appointing them, and modifying the party of their summoning to the local defence units in the provinces and including those personnel who have sorted out their affairs and are working with the Iranian side within the local defence units according to the following table:

Page 2

3. Organizing recruitment contracts for the interest of the armed forces- the people's army, for a period of two years for the civilians working with the Iranian side for whosoever desires, regardless of the conditions of recruitment implemented in the armed forces (permanent matter no. 1 and its modifications/recruitment) and renewing it by agreement of the two sides according to the following table:

4. Commissioning an administration of the affairs of the officers by sorting out of the affairs of session 69 of active officers and those who are working with the Iranian side currently in Aleppo province, their number being 1650.

5. The leadership of the local defence units in the provinces that work with the Iranian side remain affiliated with the Iranian side while coordinating with the general command for the army and armed forces until the end of the crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic, or issuing of a new decision.

6. Combat and material guarantee in all its types for Syrian military personnel and civilians working with the Iranian side on the shoulder of the Iranian side after organizing them into the local defence units in the provinces in coordination with the relevant parties.

7. Guaranteeing the material rights for the martyrs, wounded, and disappeared who have been working with the Iranian side since the beginning of the events, placed on the shoulder of the Iranian side. As for the rest of the determined rights for the martyrs, wounded and disappeared according to the systems and laws as follows:

a) Military personnel and those commissioned who have avoided obligatory service after sorting out of their affairs in principle.

b) Civilians in the framework of the comprehensive solution.

8. Issuing organization instructions guaranteeing implementation instructions for military personnel and civilians working with the Iranian side after organizing them into the local defence units in the provinces.
Attached is a table of the combat equipment handed to the Iranian side from the popular army and that which is present with it.
Please review and decide.

Brigadier General Adnan Mahraz Abdo

Head of the organization and administration branch.

. Opinion of the major general, head of the general chief of staff for the army and armed forces.

I agree to the suggestions: 5 April 2017

. Opinion of the major general, deputy general commander, deputy head of the council of ministers, minister of defence.

I agree to the suggestions: 5 April 2017.

. Decision of the lieutenant general [/field marshal], general commander for the army and armed forces.

Agreed- 11 April 2017.

[B]Page 3

24 April 2017

To: the national security office, the intelligence branch [military intelligence], general intelligence administration, air intelligence administration, political security branch, criminal security administration, migration and passports administration, military police:

. Implementing the decision of the general, the general commander for the army and armed forces on our memorandum no. 1455, dated 4 April 2017, and the decision of the major general, the deputy general commander, deputy head of the council of ministers, the minister of defence on our memorandum no. 1681, dated 21 April 2017:

- You are asked not to obstruct or detain personnel working with the Iranian side who are carrying temporary cards for the local defence forces as long as their affairs are being sorted out.

- Attached is a copy of our memorandum no. 1455 date 4 April 2017 and our memorandum no. 1681 dated 21 April 2017.

Major General Ali Abdullah Ayoub

Head of the General Chief of Staff and the Armed Forces.

With the mandate of:

Brigadier General Adnan Mahraz Abdo

Head of the branch of organization and administration.

****

In essence, this gives a 'carte blanche' to the IRGC to continue organizing Shi'a militias in Syria as it likes: these are to be considered 'SAA', and the IRGC's work is not to be obstructed.

CrowBat
05-04-2017, 07:18 AM
...and here the source of that copy, and the story: Administrative Decisions on Local Defence Forces Personnel: Translation & Analysis (http://www.aymennjawad.org/2017/05/administrative-decisions-on-local-defence-forces#.WQnoZOLH3oU.twitter).

Mind: the author of that article, has a giant problem understanding what he's got. And, sadly, that's meanwhile no exception in his work, but a rule.

Namely, the author - Aymen Jawad at-Tamimi, somebody who became quite 'famous' for works of this kind - is not only failing to understand and explain the paper he's got, he's also not aware of its importance.

1.) Tamimi can't put together a story and simply explain facts: when reading his work, I've all the time got a feeling he's circling around the actual topic like a cat around a mug of hot milk. The only exception from this rule was hit 'critique' of Guttman's recent article of the PKK.

2.) He also seems not to understand the simple brutality of the Assad regime. Or is he intentionally downplaying the importance of networks of patronage and crime...?

In this case he starts 'wondering loud':

...As a result, there has been widespread evasion of compulsory and reserve service, along with desertion from the army ranks. Fear of arrest for these offences would also prevent many people from venturing too far beyond their hometown or area, on account of the risk of encountering a security checkpoint that might have their names on a wanted list.

Instead, militias may be seen as offering a better alternative, as the salaries are often higher than those of army conscripts.
...

Actually, the principle is simple: the regime pays next to nothing to the SAA; SAA has no other choice but to defect and is thus criminalized; there come the 'saviours' of some militia, offer amnesty; and the ex-SAA should not only be 'happy', but indeed is 'in debt' with 'merciful regime' that gave his life a new sense...

And now, with this document, the IRGC is offered a carte blanche in regards of related work. :roll:

3.) Tamimi has also got an immense problem with drawing simple conclusions about the NDF and the LDF. Surely enough, the Russians are trying to change the situation lately, but essentially, both of these are nothing else but an attempt to formalize all the sorts of militias and PMCs, with the LDF usually standing for different 'units' of Hezbollah/Syria.

4.) And, he's paying too much attention at the purported 'symbology': sure, it's nice to have some unit crest explained, but what some insignia stands for or should depict is one thing, while the actual nature and purpose of the unit in question is another. The fact the regime lets militias recruit and pay better means not the resulting unit is 'SAA', just for example.

Therefore, it is not - or it should not be - the least surprising the LDF 'exists beyond Aleppo' (like it is for Tamimi): in essence, the LDF might be wherever the regime decides to call one of IRGC's local surrogates that way - or whatever local gangs prefer to call themselves.

What a 'surprise' then: what the regime considers 'LDF of Mhrada' for example, is calling itself 'Mhrada NDF'.

Overall, the piece is informative in regards of existence of few of armed groups in question. But, Tamimi's narrative and failures to understand the nature of the regime, and the purpose of the NDF/LDF legend, is severely smudging the picture.

BTW, and to make sure, the IRGC is not the only one to get such permissions. The Russians are meanwhile neck-deep into repeating IRGC's example (https://twitter.com/Jacm212/status/859872436761878528):


A #Russia|n delegation was allegedly in #Suweida today & proposed the creation of a local militia. Pic via Suweida24. #Syria
-> Members would get $200 a month, some health care, and have their status regularized :!: (for those who missed service)...

Russians 'proposing the creation of a local militia' in Suweida is silly: the area already has some 5-6 own militias - all Druze. Actually, this is indicating the Russians are trying to recruit some of these to fight for them, i.e. for Assad.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 07:50 AM
CrowBat....my compliments on a rather good translation....did not notice it was page 3 but the significance is still massive and YOU wonder if CENTCOM/Trump and the SOF community "will get it".

BUT I seriously doubt it....

IMHO this clearly indicates that Syria is now fully under Iranian IRGC control and no longer a "so called sphere of influence zone" that Obama/Rhodes were pushing for in the end........

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 07:55 AM
Hama Battle: #Iran announced death of #IRGC Brigadier General Mahab Ali Farsi, veteran of Iran-Iraq war. Killed by Rebels 2 days ago.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 07:59 AM
Here's the Kremlin transcript of Putin's press conference with Erdogan yesterday, in English.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54444#

Russia stated that they together with Iran and Turkey will setup four "safe zones" and be the guarantors of the agreement for the four zones..to be presented at the ongoing Astana talks....

What's new is that there's a 3-page memorandum circulating in Astana with a May 22 deadline for establishing the zones' exact borders.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 08:02 AM
IF this is anywhere close to being accurate/confirmed the US (Trump), CENTCOM and US SOF are now involved in one hell of a total mess.....
PYD (PKK) signed an agreement to cooperate with the Regime and Russia for upcoming offensives in Aleppo and Idlib.

http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/...e-east/347692#

So Trump, CENTCOM and US SOF are in fact supporting Assad in genocide, ethnic cleansing, fighting together with sectarian Iraqi Shia militias and the Iranian IRGC along with support of a Communist terrorist group PKK....

Can it get any worse???

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 08:32 AM
http://mikeduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/soap-box.jpg

Azor...back on my soap box for this morning in a very rainy Berlin.....while we have sparred a lot over the Russian Trump connections and the Steel Dossier...we are slowly seeing the FBI close in on indictments...

If you noticed yesterday Comey did admit to three ongoing investigations....

A social media poster had pointed to three grand juries in progress with two being close to and or finished with indictments/warrants coming out of them...

Many bashed him and his sources for being incorrect, BUT Comey did in fact confirm yesterday what he had posted...

THEN he posts this....

I now have 2 sources within legal community confirming that a D.C. area judge has signed 2 warrants related to Comey's Trump investigation.
(Warrants could be to force someone to testify in a grand jury and or actual arrest warrants...although normally a person would not refuse to testify unless there is something to hide and a GJ can provide immunity to get you to testify).

So exactly if you are the Trump WH on the verge of being charged with obstruction and or worse just how do you conduct FP...ANY FP?

"Wag the Dog" takes over as the easiest way to deflect from his "troubles" does it not........???

Even yesterday the Chinese were warning the US to stop their bomber overflights hardening their line actually and coming to the open support of NK which many said they would in the end...."as a cause for potentially triggering a war".

In Syria if you have read the CrowBat postings and mine from today... Trump/CENTCOM/US SOF are now in one hell of a mess....

With Trump/CENTCOM/US SOF now supporting openly terrorists of multiple stripes and all Shia based...and supporting FIVE US named terrorist groups when they are suppose to be fighting two terrorist groups?

SEVEN terrorist groups and the US is in the middle of all SEVEN?

What in the hell did Trump get the US into in his "rush to eradicate IS from the face of the earth" and ALL just in under 110 days?

Even Obama did not stumble this badly....

THIS goes to the heart of all the Trump lies.....remember he bashes constantly the "failing and fake news NYTs" on just about anything....

The failing @nytimes added 308k new digital/print subscribers in the first quarter of '17, according to our latest Fake News press release

308,000 new subscriptions in one quarter and MSM is :failing and fake"?

CrowBat
05-04-2017, 09:28 AM
CrowBat....my compliments on a rather good translation....did not notice it was page 3 but the significance is still massive and YOU wonder if CENTCOM/Trump and the SOF community "will get it".Thanks, but that translation is not mine: it's Taimimi's (see the link to his article I've posted above).

The importance of his 'find' is as follows:

1.) It's a definite confirmation that the Assadists are running the policy of letting the IRGC do whatever it wants to do in parts of Syria that are nominally 'regime controlled'. I.e. the parts of Syria in question - even those directly controlled by nominal 'regime forces' - are actually not under control of the same. The regime actually has no say at its own home turf: even at the time it's so short on troops like never before, it must let the IRGC recruit and establish militias as it likes.

And that's 'official'.

2.) The official nomenclature of 'National Defence Forces' and 'Local Defence Forces' is a farce; a big PR-show, and nothing else.

3.) Assad-Regime knows very well what the IRGC is doing, but has no other choice but to make it its official policy to let the IRGC do whatever it wants to do in Syria.

For Trump, Pentagon etc. there should be no clearer message than this: if they are so eager to confront Iranians, and as eager to do so in Yemen... then why to hell do they miss all the Iranians are doing in Syria?

Like you, though, I strongly doubt Washington will be doing anything about this. Namely: development of this kind is playing directly into the hands of Israel (free along the motto 'the IRGC in Syria is mortal danger' etc.).

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 01:28 PM
Oppo's delegation in Astana are fragmented and unqualified. They belong in the field, not negotiating table.

Where is Hijab

In Astana: Russia, Iran and Turkey signed memorandum on 4 "safety zones" in Syria

Guess all other areas will be "free fire zones a la VN 1968"...

Azor
05-04-2017, 03:50 PM
You really need to rethink this comment...sorry but a conventional war one can in fact "militarily end" but guerrilla warfare....can take decades BTW...ask the US Army about VN experiences...

Outlaw,

What is there to reconsider?

The Army would doubtless agree that aside from Operation Desert Storm, subversion and guerrilla warfare would have been far preferable to conventional mobile and siege warfare.

As for Vietnam, the Communists paid an absolutely terrible price for harassing U.S. forces. Even including ARVN fatalities, the NLF and NVA experience was akin to the Red Army's experience on the Eastern Front.

The Korean War was a hideous conflict and the risk of a U.S. military defeat was far higher. Indeed, Eisenhower basically had to threaten to use the bomb in order to secure an armistice. Yet this is regarded as a decisive victory...

The issue is one of perception, not objective reality.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 04:09 PM
Outlaw,

What is there to reconsider?

The Army would doubtless agree that aside from Operation Desert Storm, subversion and guerrilla warfare would have been far preferable to conventional mobile and siege warfare.

As for Vietnam, the Communists paid an absolutely terrible price for harassing U.S. forces. Even including ARVN fatalities, the NLF and NVA experience was akin to the Red Army's experience on the Eastern Front.

The Korean War was a hideous conflict and the risk of a U.S. military defeat was far higher. Indeed, Eisenhower basically had to threaten to use the bomb in order to secure an armistice. Yet this is regarded as a decisive victory...

The issue is one of perception, not objective reality.

There is a very old battlefield saying...the last one standing on that field is the "winner".....

Ask the NVA and the North Koreans....they were the last one's standing.

Kuwait does not count as the Saddam army was not prepared to withstand a full scale US Army rolling thunder full TWO Corps armored attack fully patterned on a possible NATO/Soviet war.

Azor
05-04-2017, 04:26 PM
Azor...back on my soap box for this morning in a very rainy Berlin...

Not going there.

To date…


Russia has less of a free hand in Syria and less prestige in the Middle East than it did under the previous administration
There is no evidence that Operation Timber Sycamore has been wound down
There have been no efforts to rein in Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield or its attacks on the YPG
There appears to be no micro-management of the military by the administration
Washington appears to have warmer relations with Ankara and Riyadh
Clashes between the FSA and YPG have been reduced


None of these developments indicate an attempt to placate Russia, dismantle NATO or other alliances, or to retreat from MENA.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 05:18 PM
Not going there.

To date…


Russia has less of a free hand in Syria and less prestige in the Middle East than it did under the previous administration
There is no evidence that Operation Timber Sycamore has been wound down
There have been no efforts to rein in Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield or its attacks on the YPG
There appears to be no micro-management of the military by the administration
Washington appears to have warmer relations with Ankara and Riyadh
Clashes between the FSA and YPG have been reduced


None of these developments indicate an attempt to placate Russia, dismantle NATO or other alliances, or to retreat from MENA.

Really...you really think this??

Azor
05-04-2017, 05:39 PM
There is a very old battlefield saying...the last one standing on that field is the "winner".....

Ask the NVA and the North Koreans....they were the last one's standing.

Kuwait does not count as the Saddam army was not prepared to withstand a full scale US Army rolling thunder full TWO Corps armored attack fully patterned on a possible NATO/Soviet war.

Hanoi had a strategic and Pyrrhic victory over along with a tactical defeat to the U.S.

Beijing and Pyongyang suffered strategic defeats.

Operation Desert Storm does count amigo, because no one knew exactly how effective the Second Offset/AirLand Battle would be, and various members of Bush's NSC were suggesting that tactical nuclear weapons be considered for use.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 06:08 PM
Hanoi had a strategic and Pyrrhic victory over along with a tactical defeat to the U.S.

Beijing and Pyongyang suffered strategic defeats.

Operation Desert Storm does count amigo, because no one knew exactly how effective the Second Offset/AirLand Battle would be, and various members of Bush's NSC were suggesting that tactical nuclear weapons be considered for use.

But you still do not get it...they walked away as "winners".....as they were in fact willing to take the massive loses as they knew the West could not absorb the same loses..it was a game of staying power and they "stayed..we left"....

As one involved on Desert Storm tact nukes were never discussed nor even in the AOR....nor were the handlers of tact nukes ever placed on alert and move status...

Secondly, what is far more interesting is did Bush actually sucker the US and Saddam into the war.....US intel assets inside the Indications and Warnings divisions repeatedly warned Bush of Saddam's invasion moves...and you know things are serious with you pick up tank commanders talking 600 meters from the Kuwait border and you warn the President physically of an impending invasion AND YET that President does nothing but wait for the crossing to happen....

Saddam/we got suckered...simple as that...

BTW...hate to disappoint you but everyone knew Air/Land Battle would work...go back and reread the Soviet MoD comments on it...Kuwait just allowed them to array two full Corps on the ground...which one could never exercise in Germany...as an arrayed Corp takes up a lot of space....the German defense and attack model did not foresee an arrayed Corp but several attack fronts once the Soviets came to a stand still...

Azor
05-04-2017, 09:10 PM
But you still do not get it...they walked away as "winners".....as they were in fact willing to take the massive loses as they knew the West could not absorb the same loses...it was a game of staying power and they "stayed...we left"...

Are you referring solely to the NLF/NVA? Yes they did.

The U.S. campaign in Vietnam was doomed because of:


Poor intelligence and therefore understanding of the conflict i.e. not Korea redux
An overly ambitious objective i.e. a strong and friendly state in South Vietnam
A restricted commitment in order to placate Beijing and Moscow on the one hand, and the American electorate on the other


Imagine if the U.S. had simply denied the Communists control of Vietnam, relying upon anti-Communist insurgents, small special forces/intelligence teams, and airpower…

Yet returning to the issue of comparing conventional warfare with guerrilla warfare and subversion, every strictly conventional war that the U.S. has fought with major ground forces has been far more costly to those soldiers than the counter-insurgencies in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq (*).


As one involved on Desert Storm tact nukes were never discussed nor even in the AOR....nor were the handlers of tact nukes ever placed on alert and move status...

BTW...hate to disappoint you but everyone knew Air/Land Battle would work...go back and reread the Soviet MoD comments on it...Kuwait just allowed them to array two full Corps on the ground...which one could never exercise in Germany...as an arrayed Corp takes up a lot of space....the German defense and attack model did not foresee an arrayed Corp but several attack fronts once the Soviets came to a stand-still...

On the contrary, according to Khalizad and Bush himself (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/11/george-hw-bush-dick-cheney-drew-up-plans-to-nuke-iraq/414325/), Cheney among others, advocating using tactical nuclear weapons. Bush, of course, was strongly opposed, but the mere suggestion indicates the anxiety over Iraq’s conventional capabilities. Indeed, the U.S. forces committed at the beginning of 1991 indicate a major overreaction to the possibility of war.

The threat that the U.S. faced from Iraq in 1991 was the Soviet one, in miniature, and although a U.S. victory was assured, there was anxiety over how costly that victory would be. Would quality overcome quantity, and to what degree? If liberating Kuwait was hard-fought then the ramifications would be felt by NATO forces in Germany opposite the crumbling Warsaw Pact and the still formidable Soviet Union, as well as the U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific facing North Korea and China.

If you are intending to claim that “everyone” knew that AirLand Battle would work as advertised, then why did Hussein not back down?

Moreover, why did the Soviets express surprise at the effectiveness of U.S. doctrine and technology in action as the following sources indicate?


Glantz: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/rs-storm.htm
DIA: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1992-02-07/news/9201120109_1_soviet-report-reconnaissance-strike-military-force
CIA: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000266048.pdf


In 1990, 39% of the total U.S. combat aircraft inventory was deployed to Desert Storm, whereas 30% was deployed to Iraqi Freedom, and elements of the latter were already in theater supporting the ongoing NFZ/NDZ in Iraq and Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.


Secondly, what is far more interesting is did Bush actually sucker the US and Saddam into the war.....US intel assets inside the Indications and Warnings divisions repeatedly warned Bush of Saddam's invasion moves...and you know things are serious with you pick up tank commanders talking 600 meters from the Kuwait border and you warn the President physically of an impending invasion AND YET that President does nothing but wait for the crossing to happen...Saddam/we got suckered...simple as that...

So because it’s rainy in Berlin, you’re using tinfoil to stay dry while on your soap box? :P

Hussein had more than five months to withdraw from Kuwait and refused to do so despite the Desert Shield build up in Saudi Arabia and the UNSCR authorizing force to expel Iraqi forces. If those gathering Desert Storm clouds – pun intended – did not convince Hussein, how could Bush have done so in 1990?




* Referring to the Civil War, World War I, World War II and the Korean War

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 06:30 AM
Are you referring solely to the NLF/NVA? Yes they did.

The U.S. campaign in Vietnam was doomed because of:


Poor intelligence and therefore understanding of the conflict i.e. not Korea redux
An overly ambitious objective i.e. a strong and friendly state in South Vietnam
A restricted commitment in order to placate Beijing and Moscow on the one hand, and the American electorate on the other


Imagine if the U.S. had simply denied the Communists control of Vietnam, relying upon anti-Communist insurgents, small special forces/intelligence teams, and airpower…

Yet returning to the issue of comparing conventional warfare with guerrilla warfare and subversion, every strictly conventional war that the U.S. has fought with major ground forces has been far more costly to those soldiers than the counter-insurgencies in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq (*).



On the contrary, according to Khalizad and Bush himself (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/11/george-hw-bush-dick-cheney-drew-up-plans-to-nuke-iraq/414325/), Cheney among others, advocating using tactical nuclear weapons. Bush, of course, was strongly opposed, but the mere suggestion indicates the anxiety over Iraq’s conventional capabilities. Indeed, the U.S. forces committed at the beginning of 1991 indicate a major overreaction to the possibility of war.

The threat that the U.S. faced from Iraq in 1991 was the Soviet one, in miniature, and although a U.S. victory was assured, there was anxiety over how costly that victory would be. Would quality overcome quantity, and to what degree? If liberating Kuwait was hard-fought then the ramifications would be felt by NATO forces in Germany opposite the crumbling Warsaw Pact and the still formidable Soviet Union, as well as the U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific facing North Korea and China.

If you are intending to claim that “everyone” knew that AirLand Battle would work as advertised, then why did Hussein not back down?

Moreover, why did the Soviets express surprise at the effectiveness of U.S. doctrine and technology in action as the following sources indicate?


Glantz: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/rs-storm.htm
DIA: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1992-02-07/news/9201120109_1_soviet-report-reconnaissance-strike-military-force
CIA: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000266048.pdf


In 1990, 39% of the total U.S. combat aircraft inventory was deployed to Desert Storm, whereas 30% was deployed to Iraqi Freedom, and elements of the latter were already in theater supporting the ongoing NFZ/NDZ in Iraq and Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.



So because it’s rainy in Berlin, you’re using tinfoil to stay dry while on your soap box? :P

Hussein had more than five months to withdraw from Kuwait and refused to do so despite the Desert Shield build up in Saudi Arabia and the UNSCR authorizing force to expel Iraqi forces. If those gathering Desert Storm clouds – pun intended – did not convince Hussein, how could Bush have done so in 1990?




* Referring to the Civil War, World War I, World War II and the Korean War

I find it interesting that you have never participated in either VN nor Desert Storm nor sat in the actual planning phases of DS or even during the Cold War in Germany yet you quote like wild....

If you really did do your research on SVN you might have noticed that actually the SVN Army was holding up well and with heavy B52 strikes effectively stopped the NVA Easter invasion in it's tracks and pushed them back into Laos and Cambodia...

The NVA licked it wounds and waited...WHAT exactly was the next US government move...they simply cut off SVN from any further military aid...and then the NVA moved again.

If you the reread a lot of the 1975 battlefield reports coming from SVN army/marine units...they basically ran out of ammo and there was nothing there to supply them with and then broke and ran....

Back to tact nukes..US politicians can talk all they want to but at no time were the handlers of those weapons "alerted to move" a key sign they were going to be used.....so again understand what you are talking about.

BTW you avoided my comments on the I&W warning Bush but Bush not reacting...why was that...if you knew the history behind I&W and their mission and where they sit in the IC and the role they play in national level command authority decisions you should have jumped on my comments but you did not.....

Long time I&W types who are very in tune to intel openly questioned what Bush was up in totally ignoring their warnings even SIX hours before the actual invasion and they called it to the exact invasion minute....Bush could have forewarned Kuwaiti forces but did not..but no action from a sitting US President...they indicate that had he gone on national TV and laid out all the intel evidence down to SIGINT as the buildup was occurring Saddam would not have invaded...but he did nothing....

Their reasoning is still today this and it has not changed with time...he wanted the war with Saddam...

But somehow we do not talk about that do we Azor?

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 06:44 AM
Azor...BTW you are badly off topic so drop this line and get back to answering what CrowBat and I have posted....which is far more interesting that reliving the past...

What is ongoing now in Syria will directly impact and badly impact the US in the coming decade and Trump is leading the US down that path in a worse way than did Obama...

So prove me wrong...

Tin foil hat off now...

Why do I say that....the Russian Trump connections will draw Trump far more into trying to survive it and will thus cause US FP to drift in a way never seen before...much like the Nixon WH days after the Watergate break in....

And as we have seen with the TLAM/MOAB strikes that impressed no one he shots to distract not to underline a strategic strategy...

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 07:39 AM
Azor...this is why you must pay more attention to what CrowBat and I both post here.....

Although in Iraq..this is a serious indicator of IS eventually going back to gerrilla warfare from which they evolved in the first place.....

I saw the first versions of this in a major battle in Diyala 2005...and it has further evolved....

They will never be "militarily defeated"...

The first launcher is a standardised anti-tank weapon cobbled together by IS in Mosul. The second appears to fire a more powerful rocket.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 07:45 AM
BREAKING
Infighting between Turkish backed Lisa Sultan Murad and Ahrar al-Sham in western and southern entrance of Jarablus. (ANHA)

Abu Ibrahim, president of al-Bab's Military Council, has been hospitalized after an assassination attempt by unknown assailants few today.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 07:47 AM
Azor...heads up ..now tell me what the Trump FP response will be on this....and then check the actual locations of the four safe zones....you will notice somethin...but will allow you to "see" the connection to this statement...

Russia: Syria safe zones to be shut for U.S., coalition planes - agencies
http://reut.rs/2qGMQdR

Russia says U.S. coalition forbidden from operating in planned Syria safe zones
http://tass.ru/politika/4233897?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share#

Azor
05-05-2017, 08:07 AM
https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/charting-the-future-of-the-modern-caliphate/

Selected Excerpts with emphasis added:

In the pantheon of possibilities ranging from complete collapse to a future resurgence, the organization will likely survive its looming military defeat. This outcome is supported by historical research on insurgencies that indicate groups rarely collapse and disappear. In fact, like the past history of ISIL itself, groups are quite capable of withstanding the loss of territory by returning to earlier stages of organizing, recruiting and fund raising. While ISIL has been fixated with securing and controlling sympathetic populations in the past, it has demonstrated a remarkable ability to survive without territory, as it did between 2008 and 2013. In the future, the underground struggle that follows on the heels of the conquest of Mosul and Raqqa will not require large numbers of fighters. The group’s veterans are experienced in blending back into the local population to wage a low-level insurgency...

Yet there is no reason to think ISIL is close to being vanquished. The two major factors that led its predecessor, the Islamic State in Iraq, to resuscitate its organization and evolve into a truly global threat — the Syrian civil war and the political manipulation of sectarian tensions in Iraq — remain important variables in what comes next. RAND research that examined all insurgencies between 1945 and 2009 found that the most important factor in reducing their duration is the ability of the counterinsurgents to reduce the tangible support of the insurgents. To achieve this, state security services, police forces and border control are critical, and neither Iraq nor Syria can currently claim to have any of these in abundance or quality...

Who Governs the Sunnis?

This political question has been at the heart of the conflict since the U.S. military conducted a surge of troops and diplomats that opened the door for rapprochement between Sunni-dominated areas of Iraq and the national government in 2007. This relationship, which at one point held real promise, failed to develop and since 2010 ISIL opportunistically capitalized on its slow deterioration. By 2014, Iraqis in the Sunni majority areas gave a lukewarm embrace of ISIL that was as much of an indictment of the inept and corrupt Iraqi Sunni political class as it was of the Maliki administration’s loss of perceived legitimacy and right to rule.

Now that Sunnis have learned the hard way that ISIL’s utopian revolution overpromised and under delivered, who will fill the vacuum? The strong organizational structure of the Iraqi Islamic Party that ruled many of the Sunni provinces failed to translate into good governance, creating the opening for ISIL to offer itself as a viable alternative. The hardliners within the broader Sunni political establishment’s attempt to return to power after its previous failures (including the embarrassing loss of Mosul) — coupled with its historical anti-western attitude — means it will be a poor partner for the Iraqi government. Still, as researcher Rasha Al Aqeedi points out, issues including corruption, mistrust in local and central politics and radical ideologies all remain major obstacles to good governance in Iraq — even more so than the conventional wisdom that Sunni rejection of a Shiite order was the primary factor leading to ISIL’s resurrection throughout the most volatile parts of the country.

One difficult challenge in wooing Sunni politicos has been ISIL’s long-time tactic of preemption and elimination of future Sunni rivals. Starting with the dismantling of the Sahwa in Iraq, local Sunni tribal militias, and the cooption of tribal figures after 2008, ISIL’s use of calibrated violence against its own population has crippled local leaders and torn apart the social fabric— possibly permanently. Nonetheless, if regional Sunni actors can inspire the resurrection of a functioning local governance structure supported and protected by powerful benefactors ISIL will find it difficult to compete anywhere outside of the rump of the remaining caliphate...

Furthermore, the overreliance on Iraqi counter-terrorism and special police forces as regular infantry in the fierce, door-to-door urban combat of Mosul is destroying the very capability the Iraqi state will need to win the occupation phase for a successful transition to stability, whatever form that might take. Who will fill that security vacuum? If by default the Iraqi government is forced to rely on its ad-hoc mix of popular mobilization forces, ISIL’s chances of a return in Iraq will be much higher due to its lack of legitimacy in Sunni areas. The legitimacy of the Abadi administration has been an underappreciated aspect of Iraq’s success against ISIL. This political mandate must be carried forward if the defeat of ISIL is to be a permanent one, and impending robust challenges by Abadi rivals — including former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the populist Muqtada al-Sadr — could sour Washington on future cooperation if either of these two attain power.


In Syria, the Assad regime’s chances of reclaiming territory in former rebel-held areas are much more suspect than its counterparts in Iraq, and surprisingly more complex due to the sheer number of actors in Syria with differing political end states. Any ISIL retreat east to its remaining rump state along the Euphrates will likely open up a fierce competition for resources and influence between tribes, jihadi groups, rebel groups, the state, and state-aligned proxy forces. Unlike in Iraq, ISIL has been an outsider with limited ties in Syria, although those relationships have grown stronger as ISIL has controlled territory and influenced populations. ISIL success since 2013 in exploiting divisions and stealing away fighters demonstrates how conducive this environment is group survival, and for this reason it will remain an influential entity for some time to come...

The challenge in Raqqa and the rest of eastern Syria will be the growing Kurdish-Arab and Kurdish-Turkish tensions. If the Kurdistan Workers’ Party aligned with Syrian Democratic Forces becomes involved in liberating urban areas, these tensions will likely erupt. Moreover, the Turks will likely never accede to a People’s Protection Unit (YPG) role in governance and the Kurdish militias could have trouble giving back what territory they are able to conquer. Despite being among the most effective fighting forces on the ground, will the Kurds eventually be jettisoned as an ally in favor of maintaining positive relations with Turkey? The United States finds itself in a precarious position, seeking at once to placate its NATO ally Turkey, while simultaneously reassuring the Kurds their hard fought gains are not just fleeting...

CrowBat
05-05-2017, 09:07 AM
In best traditions of modern US-made international-security-related... erm... 'journalism', the authors are conveniently talking themselves past the problem.


In Syria, the Assad regime’s chances of reclaiming territory in former rebel-held areas...Wrong. Alone the notion of 'the Assad regime's chances' indicates they've got no clue about what's going on in Syria.

Then, if at all, they should be discussing 'IRGC's chances of conquering and ethnically cleansing areas predominantly populated by Sunni Arabs, and this in order to establish firm presence and thus political influence for decades in advance, but also to reap economic benefits (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-iran-idUSKBN1531TO).

But, that is something the USA are staunchly ignoring. Instead, and should they ever come to the idea to write a similar feature on Yemen, the same authors are 1000% guaranteed going to talk about 'Iran-backed Houthis'...


Any ISIL retreat east to its remaining rump state along the Euphrates will likely open....'likely open'...?

Welcome on planet Earth, dear aliens!

By side the fact that the Daesh is actually no part of the Syrian 'Civil' War - not for Syrians, not for Syrian insurgents, not for Assadists, not for the IRGC, and not for Russians - and thus a mere sidenote within the context at hand... but foremost: this is already happening. It just so happens the authors missed what happened in al-Bab area when this was liberated from the Daesh by Turkey-supported Syrian insurgents.


The challenge in Raqqa and the rest of eastern Syria will be the growing Kurdish-Arab and Kurdish-Turkish tensions.The same again: 'will be'...? I.e. this is not already the case?


If the Kurdistan Workers’ Party aligned with Syrian Democratic Forces becomes involved in liberating urban areas....'If'?

Do I have to post all citations of the PKK being the essence of the PYD, therefore the YPG, and thus the SDF too...? And, who 'liberated' Manbij and few other towns in the area? Who is currently on the brink of 'liberating' Tabqa? Vanuatuans, with aerial and SF-support from Chile...?


Moreover, the Turks will likely never accede to a People’s Protection Unit (YPG) role in governance....Well, the fact the Americans don't mind the Pentagon - i.e. the US military - messing around with the governance of the USA, means not this is right. Actually it is so that the - YPG - which is a military force - should be completely outside the loop of civilian governance. However, thanks to the USA, and thanks to the US ignorance of the fact that the YPG is at least 50% staffed by the PKK, this is ignored, just like it is ignore that the PKK - which is a Marxist terrorist organization of Kurds from Turkey - imposed itself (and thus the PYD and the YPG) upon Kurds in northern Syria.


Despite being among the most effective fighting forces on the ground......standardised phraseology, making one wonder by what standards are they 'the most fighting effective force'? Provide the same support to any other party there (except Assadists: they wouldn't manage it even with full support of the entire US military), and it's going to become as effective.


...will the Kurds eventually be jettisoned as an ally in favor of maintaining positive relations with Turkey?Why? Why should anybody demand this? And, is anybody demanding this?

No. All the various people around the World 'protest' against is the US cooperation with the PKK, which is a Marxist terrorist organization, the cooperation with which is against the law - in the USA, in all of the NATO and nearly all of the EU.

This means not even that Turkey would mind the US cooperation with Kurds - IF the Kurds in question wouldn't be from the PKK.

And the reason for this is that one just can't expect anything else from a Marxist terrorist organization, but to terrorise - i.e. apply violence. Which means that the only possible result of any war fought with such an organization on its side is just another war.

Now somebody tell me why is this so hard to understand...?


The United States finds itself in a precarious position......for which the USA are themselves to blame. So, a US problem, but - and as so often - with tragic consequences for all those to whom it's directly related, vast majority of whom are no US citizens.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 04:28 PM
https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/charting-the-future-of-the-modern-caliphate/

Selected Excerpts with emphasis added:

In the pantheon of possibilities ranging from complete collapse to a future resurgence, the organization will likely survive its looming military defeat. This outcome is supported by historical research on insurgencies that indicate groups rarely collapse and disappear. In fact, like the past history of ISIL itself, groups are quite capable of withstanding the loss of territory by returning to earlier stages of organizing, recruiting and fund raising. While ISIL has been fixated with securing and controlling sympathetic populations in the past, it has demonstrated a remarkable ability to survive without territory, as it did between 2008 and 2013. In the future, the underground struggle that follows on the heels of the conquest of Mosul and Raqqa will not require large numbers of fighters. The group’s veterans are experienced in blending back into the local population to wage a low-level insurgency...

Yet there is no reason to think ISIL is close to being vanquished. The two major factors that led its predecessor, the Islamic State in Iraq, to resuscitate its organization and evolve into a truly global threat — the Syrian civil war and the political manipulation of sectarian tensions in Iraq — remain important variables in what comes next. RAND research that examined all insurgencies between 1945 and 2009 found that the most important factor in reducing their duration is the ability of the counterinsurgents to reduce the tangible support of the insurgents. To achieve this, state security services, police forces and border control are critical, and neither Iraq nor Syria can currently claim to have any of these in abundance or quality...

Who Governs the Sunnis?

This political question has been at the heart of the conflict since the U.S. military conducted a surge of troops and diplomats that opened the door for rapprochement between Sunni-dominated areas of Iraq and the national government in 2007. This relationship, which at one point held real promise, failed to develop and since 2010 ISIL opportunistically capitalized on its slow deterioration. By 2014, Iraqis in the Sunni majority areas gave a lukewarm embrace of ISIL that was as much of an indictment of the inept and corrupt Iraqi Sunni political class as it was of the Maliki administration’s loss of perceived legitimacy and right to rule.

Now that Sunnis have learned the hard way that ISIL’s utopian revolution overpromised and under delivered, who will fill the vacuum? The strong organizational structure of the Iraqi Islamic Party that ruled many of the Sunni provinces failed to translate into good governance, creating the opening for ISIL to offer itself as a viable alternative. The hardliners within the broader Sunni political establishment’s attempt to return to power after its previous failures (including the embarrassing loss of Mosul) — coupled with its historical anti-western attitude — means it will be a poor partner for the Iraqi government. Still, as researcher Rasha Al Aqeedi points out, issues including corruption, mistrust in local and central politics and radical ideologies all remain major obstacles to good governance in Iraq — even more so than the conventional wisdom that Sunni rejection of a Shiite order was the primary factor leading to ISIL’s resurrection throughout the most volatile parts of the country.

One difficult challenge in wooing Sunni politicos has been ISIL’s long-time tactic of preemption and elimination of future Sunni rivals. Starting with the dismantling of the Sahwa in Iraq, local Sunni tribal militias, and the cooption of tribal figures after 2008, ISIL’s use of calibrated violence against its own population has crippled local leaders and torn apart the social fabric— possibly permanently. Nonetheless, if regional Sunni actors can inspire the resurrection of a functioning local governance structure supported and protected by powerful benefactors ISIL will find it difficult to compete anywhere outside of the rump of the remaining caliphate...

Furthermore, the overreliance on Iraqi counter-terrorism and special police forces as regular infantry in the fierce, door-to-door urban combat of Mosul is destroying the very capability the Iraqi state will need to win the occupation phase for a successful transition to stability, whatever form that might take. Who will fill that security vacuum? If by default the Iraqi government is forced to rely on its ad-hoc mix of popular mobilization forces, ISIL’s chances of a return in Iraq will be much higher due to its lack of legitimacy in Sunni areas. The legitimacy of the Abadi administration has been an underappreciated aspect of Iraq’s success against ISIL. This political mandate must be carried forward if the defeat of ISIL is to be a permanent one, and impending robust challenges by Abadi rivals — including former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the populist Muqtada al-Sadr — could sour Washington on future cooperation if either of these two attain power.


In Syria, the Assad regime’s chances of reclaiming territory in former rebel-held areas are much more suspect than its counterparts in Iraq, and surprisingly more complex due to the sheer number of actors in Syria with differing political end states. Any ISIL retreat east to its remaining rump state along the Euphrates will likely open up a fierce competition for resources and influence between tribes, jihadi groups, rebel groups, the state, and state-aligned proxy forces. Unlike in Iraq, ISIL has been an outsider with limited ties in Syria, although those relationships have grown stronger as ISIL has controlled territory and influenced populations. ISIL success since 2013 in exploiting divisions and stealing away fighters demonstrates how conducive this environment is group survival, and for this reason it will remain an influential entity for some time to come...

The challenge in Raqqa and the rest of eastern Syria will be the growing Kurdish-Arab and Kurdish-Turkish tensions. If the Kurdistan Workers’ Party aligned with Syrian Democratic Forces becomes involved in liberating urban areas, these tensions will likely erupt. Moreover, the Turks will likely never accede to a People’s Protection Unit (YPG) role in governance and the Kurdish militias could have trouble giving back what territory they are able to conquer. Despite being among the most effective fighting forces on the ground, will the Kurds eventually be jettisoned as an ally in favor of maintaining positive relations with Turkey? The United States finds itself in a precarious position, seeking at once to placate its NATO ally Turkey, while simultaneously reassuring the Kurds their hard fought gains are not just fleeting...

Rus MoD held a briefing on principles of implementation of #Memorandum on Syria de-escalation zones
https://youtu.be/5cF-gIL8yzk

AND remember the US cannot fly and or participate in these safe zones...

Azor
05-05-2017, 04:53 PM
I find it interesting that you have never participated in either VN nor Desert Storm nor sat in the actual planning phases of DS or even during the Cold War in Germany yet you quote like wild...

Not taking that bait. Nice try though.


If you really did do your research on SVN you might have noticed that actually the SVN Army was holding up well and with heavy B52 strikes effectively stopped the NVA Easter invasion in it's tracks and pushed them back into Laos and Cambodia...

The NVA licked it wounds and waited...WHAT exactly was the next US government move...they simply cut off SVN from any further military aid...and then the NVA moved again.

If you the reread a lot of the 1975 battlefield reports coming from SVN army/marine units...they basically ran out of ammo and there was nothing there to supply them with and then broke and ran....

Nice strawman. When did I laugh off the ARVN?

Of course, with U.S. materiel aid and airpower, the ARVN could have held off the Spring Offensive, but the NLF insurgency would have continued indefinitely, particularly given the developments in Cambodia.


Back to tact nukes…US politicians can talk all they want to but at no time were the handlers of those weapons "alerted to move" a key sign they were going to be used...so again understand what you are talking about.

Cheney was SECDEF at the time, not a mere “politician”. As Bush strongly opposed the idea, why would there be any alerts or redeployments with regard to these weapons?

You will note that in the aftermath of Desert Storm, the Clinton and Bush the Younger administrations believed that the U.S. could use conventional weapons to neutralize WMDs, including Russia’s; Russia and China, for their part, agreed and were very concerned about the Prompt Global Strike program.

Yet prior to Desert Storm, the Bush administration repeatedly warned Iraq that if it used WMDs against the U.S. or its allies, it would be open to U.S. nuclear strikes.

There was an obvious sea change in strategic thought after the Second Offset/Fight Outnumbered and Win/Precision-strike/RMA was successfully tested in the crucible of battle.


BTW you avoided my comments on the I&W warning Bush but Bush not reacting...why was that…Their reasoning is still today this and it has not changed with time...he wanted the war with Saddam...But somehow we do not talk about that do we Azor?

You avoided my response on why Hussein did not back down during the intervening five months, or how Bush could have prevented the invasion of Kuwait despite being unable to coerce Hussein's withdrawal...


…you are badly off topic so drop this line and get back to answering what CrowBat and I have posted....which is far more interesting that reliving the past...

Yawn. We were discussing whether it was preferable to be facing guerrillas/subversives or conventional fighters, which is germane to this thread, as Daesh is defeated as a conventional fighting force. I have never claimed that Raqqa’s fall would end Daesh or that it would not revert to 2008-2013 form. What I did say was that once the American public sees Daesh driven underground, Washington has a greater ability to help resolve the other and more important conflicts plaguing Iraq and Syria.

Azor
05-05-2017, 05:10 PM
Azor...heads up...now tell me what the Trump FP response will be on this....and then check the actual locations of the four safe zones....you will notice something...but will allow you to "see" the connection to this statement...Russia: Syria safe zones to be shut for U.S., coalition planes - agencies...Russia says U.S. coalition forbidden from operating in planned Syria safe zones...

And? Russia is in no position to impose no-fly zones on the Coalition.

I have not been able to find a map of the proposed NFZs but regardless, I would welcome it.

Basically, it would be a reversal of the scenario I suggested to CrowBat earlier, with Russia now being forced to fire first upon Coalition aircraft or back down. Russia will also have to explain how imposing a NFZ on the Coalition furthers the supposedly common goal of defeating Daesh. From a public relations standpoint, this places the onus on Russia to make a claim and then defend it.

Turkey supposedly agrees with the Russian "safe zone" concept in principle, but that is meaningless in practice as Turkey is not about to shoot down U.S. aircraft operating in Syria. While Turkey is enraged at the U.S. lionizing of the YPG, Russia has provided CAS for the YPG as well. If the PKK-PYD links, allegations of YPG ethnic and sectarian cleansing and the Turkish-Kurdish conflict are being discussed so openly, rest assured that behind closed doors there are efforts to deal with the problem...

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:14 PM
https://warontherocks.com/2017/05/charting-the-future-of-the-modern-caliphate/

Selected Excerpts with emphasis added:

In the pantheon of possibilities ranging from complete collapse to a future resurgence, the organization will likely survive its looming military defeat. This outcome is supported by historical research on insurgencies that indicate groups rarely collapse and disappear. In fact, like the past history of ISIL itself, groups are quite capable of withstanding the loss of territory by returning to earlier stages of organizing, recruiting and fund raising. While ISIL has been fixated with securing and controlling sympathetic populations in the past, it has demonstrated a remarkable ability to survive without territory, as it did between 2008 and 2013. In the future, the underground struggle that follows on the heels of the conquest of Mosul and Raqqa will not require large numbers of fighters. The group’s veterans are experienced in blending back into the local population to wage a low-level insurgency...

Yet there is no reason to think ISIL is close to being vanquished. The two major factors that led its predecessor, the Islamic State in Iraq, to resuscitate its organization and evolve into a truly global threat — the Syrian civil war and the political manipulation of sectarian tensions in Iraq — remain important variables in what comes next. RAND research that examined all insurgencies between 1945 and 2009 found that the most important factor in reducing their duration is the ability of the counterinsurgents to reduce the tangible support of the insurgents. To achieve this, state security services, police forces and border control are critical, and neither Iraq nor Syria can currently claim to have any of these in abundance or quality...

Who Governs the Sunnis?

This political question has been at the heart of the conflict since the U.S. military conducted a surge of troops and diplomats that opened the door for rapprochement between Sunni-dominated areas of Iraq and the national government in 2007. This relationship, which at one point held real promise, failed to develop and since 2010 ISIL opportunistically capitalized on its slow deterioration. By 2014, Iraqis in the Sunni majority areas gave a lukewarm embrace of ISIL that was as much of an indictment of the inept and corrupt Iraqi Sunni political class as it was of the Maliki administration’s loss of perceived legitimacy and right to rule.

Now that Sunnis have learned the hard way that ISIL’s utopian revolution overpromised and under delivered, who will fill the vacuum? The strong organizational structure of the Iraqi Islamic Party that ruled many of the Sunni provinces failed to translate into good governance, creating the opening for ISIL to offer itself as a viable alternative. The hardliners within the broader Sunni political establishment’s attempt to return to power after its previous failures (including the embarrassing loss of Mosul) — coupled with its historical anti-western attitude — means it will be a poor partner for the Iraqi government. Still, as researcher Rasha Al Aqeedi points out, issues including corruption, mistrust in local and central politics and radical ideologies all remain major obstacles to good governance in Iraq — even more so than the conventional wisdom that Sunni rejection of a Shiite order was the primary factor leading to ISIL’s resurrection throughout the most volatile parts of the country.

One difficult challenge in wooing Sunni politicos has been ISIL’s long-time tactic of preemption and elimination of future Sunni rivals. Starting with the dismantling of the Sahwa in Iraq, local Sunni tribal militias, and the cooption of tribal figures after 2008, ISIL’s use of calibrated violence against its own population has crippled local leaders and torn apart the social fabric— possibly permanently. Nonetheless, if regional Sunni actors can inspire the resurrection of a functioning local governance structure supported and protected by powerful benefactors ISIL will find it difficult to compete anywhere outside of the rump of the remaining caliphate...

Furthermore, the overreliance on Iraqi counter-terrorism and special police forces as regular infantry in the fierce, door-to-door urban combat of Mosul is destroying the very capability the Iraqi state will need to win the occupation phase for a successful transition to stability, whatever form that might take. Who will fill that security vacuum? If by default the Iraqi government is forced to rely on its ad-hoc mix of popular mobilization forces, ISIL’s chances of a return in Iraq will be much higher due to its lack of legitimacy in Sunni areas. The legitimacy of the Abadi administration has been an underappreciated aspect of Iraq’s success against ISIL. This political mandate must be carried forward if the defeat of ISIL is to be a permanent one, and impending robust challenges by Abadi rivals — including former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the populist Muqtada al-Sadr — could sour Washington on future cooperation if either of these two attain power.


In Syria, the Assad regime’s chances of reclaiming territory in former rebel-held areas are much more suspect than its counterparts in Iraq, and surprisingly more complex due to the sheer number of actors in Syria with differing political end states. Any ISIL retreat east to its remaining rump state along the Euphrates will likely open up a fierce competition for resources and influence between tribes, jihadi groups, rebel groups, the state, and state-aligned proxy forces. Unlike in Iraq, ISIL has been an outsider with limited ties in Syria, although those relationships have grown stronger as ISIL has controlled territory and influenced populations. ISIL success since 2013 in exploiting divisions and stealing away fighters demonstrates how conducive this environment is group survival, and for this reason it will remain an influential entity for some time to come...

The challenge in Raqqa and the rest of eastern Syria will be the growing Kurdish-Arab and Kurdish-Turkish tensions. If the Kurdistan Workers’ Party aligned with Syrian Democratic Forces becomes involved in liberating urban areas, these tensions will likely erupt. Moreover, the Turks will likely never accede to a People’s Protection Unit (YPG) role in governance and the Kurdish militias could have trouble giving back what territory they are able to conquer. Despite being among the most effective fighting forces on the ground, will the Kurds eventually be jettisoned as an ally in favor of maintaining positive relations with Turkey? The United States finds itself in a precarious position, seeking at once to placate its NATO ally Turkey, while simultaneously reassuring the Kurds their hard fought gains are not just fleeting...

Turkey has deployed more tanks to Akcakale, Urfa Province, opposite the #YPG/#PKK-held Tel Abyad, #Syria [v @metesohtaoglu].

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:19 PM
Azor...so are we now going to see a rain of Trump unleashed TLAMs?????

Assad continues to produce chemical WMD, #Iran and #Russia are aware of this, Western intel agency tells @BBCNews.
http://bbc.in/2p4nf1k

Assad is producing chemical WMD at branches of the #SSRC in Masyaf (Hama), Dummar and Barzeh (both near Damascus).

"Masyaf and Barzeh facilities both specialise in installing chemical weapons on long-range missiles and artillery."

Latest OPCW report [24 April] mentioned Barzeh and Dummar (Jamraya) as sites that had been inspected, samples taken. https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/EC/85/en/ec85dg05_e_.pdf#…

Assad—surprise!—lied about "one of [SSRC's] research branches," claiming it did "defensive" work; it "develop[s] offensive capabilities."

Intel given to @BBCNews names Bassam al-Hassan as key in ordering CWMD attacks.

Was sanctioned by Treasury, 05/14
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2391.aspx#…

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:23 PM
Turkey is recruiting Syrians in #Bursa to join Turkish police & stating that Syrians who in Turkish police will be given Turkish citizenship

Thuwar al-Sham fighter: "I think it is just a matter of time until [#Syria's rebels] all go to war with #HTS [al-Qaeda]."

U.S. supplied rebels enough support to make them targets for AQ/HTS, not enough to allow them to defend themselves.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:24 PM
SDF denies it reached a deal with ISIS that secures the evacuation of the extremist group from #Tabqa, reports ongoing "intensive clashes"

Analysis by @PaulIddon: Alleged deal for #ISIS’s withdrawal in Tabqa is not unprecedented in Syria
https://goo.gl/8gESGv

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:30 PM
@ForeignPolicy Putin Has a New Secret Weapon in Syria: 1000 Chechen SF Troops.....

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/04/putin-has-a-new-secret-weapon-in-syria-chechens/

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:33 PM
Azor...heads up....

Senior PKK commander Rıza Altun says PKK to declare Iraqi Kurdistan as a war zone and target Turkish military outposts there

So here's fun. The U.S. has "no evidence" of an overlap between #YPG and #PKK, says the Pentagon.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1172185/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-col-dorrian-via-teleconference-from-bag/#…

While DoD can't detect evidence for a #YPG/#PKK overlap, here is one of their employees stood next to Sahin Cilo, a living embodiment.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:37 PM
Here is the @CrisisGroup on the total integration of the #YPG within the #PKK's command structure
https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/b053-fighting-isis-road-and-beyond-raqqa#…

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:39 PM
NATO's Centre of Excellence Defence Against Terrorism explaining that #PYD/#YPG *is* #PKK, not an "affiliate". https://imes.elliott.gwu.edu/sites/imes.elliott.gwu.edu/files/downloads/documents/Capstone-Papers-2015/Ferris%20Self%20Capstone%20Final%20Draft.pdf#…

The leadership, ideological, and personnel integration of #PKK and the #YPG/#PYD is detectable. https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/pkk-and-propaganda/#…

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:43 PM
Azor..........

USG has to continue the charade of distancing the PKK from the YPG/PYD for legal reasons......

But analytically it's an ex-argument.

WHY because it is hard to distance yourself in the US MSM if you are "suddenly seen" as supporting a Communist Kurdish terrorist group....while supposedly fighting another terrorist group...

WILL not be good for Trump's popularity numbers if that gets out...

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:45 PM
Azor...heads up ..now tell me what the Trump FP response will be on this....and then check the actual locations of the four safe zones....you will notice somethin...but will allow you to "see" the connection to this statement...

Russia: Syria safe zones to be shut for U.S., coalition planes - agencies
http://reut.rs/2qGMQdR

Russia says U.S. coalition forbidden from operating in planned Syria safe zones
http://tass.ru/politika/4233897?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share#

BTW...these Russian proposed safe zones are the Russian way of "freezing the conflict"...just as they did in eastern Ukraine and Transnistria or Georgia....

BUT WAIT......
Neither #Syria’s opposition nor the #Assad regime agreed to sign or attend the signing of the #Astana “de-escalation/secure zone” document.

Assad's delegation vetoed any language that implied the opposition retaining control of territory in #Syria, even if in an interim period.

Assad’s delegation also vetoed the inclusion of language (in earlier drafts) banning #Syria’s airforce from operating over opposition areas

Opposition is [rightly] skeptical due to lack of *any* enforcement mechanism/guarantees by stakeholder countries.

This is the same as previous CoH/ceasefire “deals”

We get a little calm, but then escalation after #Assad had time to prepare for Round 127

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 05:47 PM
Ragıp Soylu‏
Verified account
@ragipsoylu
Top Turkish officials visiting Washington today: Chief Advisor İbrahim Kalın, Turkish Military Commander Gen. Akar, Intel Chief Fidan

Some tough conversations ahead, here.
*U.S. isn’t going to drop the #YPG/#SDF.
*#Turkey considers #YPG/#SDF its greatest security threat.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 06:01 PM
BREAKING: US troops in #Syria.
LCCs report 250 US troops & 48 armored vehicles just entered #Syria's al-Malikiya, across from #Iraq border.

After several months in #Turkey "Abu al-Tow” had returned home to Jabal al-Zawiyeh.
He recently posted pics of him mocking #HTS signs.

“Abu al-Tow” (affiliated w. #FSA’s 1st Coastal Division) returned to #Idlib as 12+ FSA groups are considering a large merger in #Idlib.

Sources: Suheil al-Hamoud ("Abu al-Tow") only briefly went to #Turkey in early-2017. He has mostly been in west #Aleppo & northern #Idlib.

Sources: While “Abu al-Tow” has maintained contact with the #FSA’s 1st Coastal Division, he’s recently established work with Faylaq al-Sham.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 06:03 PM
For those, not so firm with #Syria's geography.
This is what the #Kremlin regime's "zones of de-escalation" mean for Western military jets

AND Trump's FP response to this is what again????

"even with notice"
To be very clear: #Russia's "de-escalation zones" are indeed a justification to defend #Assad bases vs. #US air strikes.

US and western jets will only be allowed to fly over #Raqqa and #DeirEzzor to fight ISIS.
Also southern ISIS-held areas seem to become NFZ.

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 06:07 PM
Meanwhile in #Syria ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1enrmxRjZg#…

Azor
05-05-2017, 09:51 PM
By Pavel Felgenhauer at Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/putin-calls-safe-zones-syria-russian-supervision/

Selected Excerpt:


Moscow wants to win the Syrian war and use this victory as a basis of a future dominant role in the Middle East. But this is impossible to achieve only through bombing: Moscow must split and undermine internal Syrian and international resistance to its actions. If Trump, Erdoğan and Merkel want “safe zones” in Syria for a public relations win and to curtail the flow of refugees, they may have them, the Kremlin apparently believes. Selected Syrian opposition warlords may, in turn, receive designated fiefdoms—“de-escalation zones.” Such a strategy worked in Chechnya; it could work in Syria. Or at least that is seemingly the plan.

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 08:20 AM
By Pavel Felgenhauer at Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/putin-calls-safe-zones-syria-russian-supervision/

Selected Excerpt:

Here is the inherent failure of such articles...they all truly fail to learn from previous Russian "ceasefires both in eastern Ukraine and Syria"..."ceasefires Russia style" are basically designed to hold the opponents in place and if they do fight then blame them for ceasefire violations ALL the while preparing for future major ground offensives...which is in now in fact what is ongoing.....

In the announced memorandum there is not a single control/punishment regime Assad and or the Russians and or Iran/Shia militias in fact violate both the ceasefires and safe zones ie via shelling's and or artillery.

AND it does not stop Assad from continuing to attacks areas not in the safe zone....

BTW find it interesting they mention Merkel....as she "envisioned" safe zones to be totally free from attacks, shelling's and even Russia air strikes...a semi form of NFZ was what she was pushing.....AND she also stated that a safe zone had to have a control mechanism in place which this Russian/Iranian/Turkish agreement certainly does not have.

AND if one really reads the small and very fine print (almost invisible) the US cannot fly/crawl/drive over/under/through these zones WITHOUT Russian MoD approval....

WOW...confirms that the ruse of a safe zones was nothing but a precursor to new Russian and Iranian offensive operations..

Clashes erupt in northwest Syria hours after de-escalation zones established by Russia, Iran, Turkey
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1812BV?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social#

AND the Trump WH and even Trump himself is even more silent than Obama was...

CrowBat
05-06-2017, 08:39 AM
Citing Azor's post in part and Pavel Felgenhauer at Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/putin-calls-safe-zones-syria-russian-supervision/

Selected Excerpt:
Moscow wants to win the Syrian war and use this victory as a basis of a future dominant role in the Middle East. But this is impossible to achieve only through bombing: Moscow must split and undermine internal Syrian and international resistance to its actions. If Trump, Erdoğan and Merkel want “safe zones” in Syria for a public relations win and to curtail the flow of refugees, they may have them, the Kremlin apparently believes. Selected Syrian opposition warlords may, in turn, receive designated fiefdoms—“de-escalation zones.” Such a strategy worked in Chechnya; it could work in Syria. Or at least that is seemingly the plan.Well, this might be Russian intentions - but if this is the case, then Moscow is only showing that it has got no clue whom is it facing in Syria. Namely, Syria is no Chechnya, and that not in any regards.

It doesn't take more than monitoring the gradual dissolution of the Southern Front FSyA to conclude: no serious 'warlord' within insurgency can afford a public admission he's not going to fight Assadists, the IRGC and the Russians any more.


BTW, Azor (and all others thinking the same way), here a nice summary on why all your thinking about 'Russia could do this or that' to counter whatever kind of Western military ops in Syria - is such a way off:
Russia’s Involvement In Syria Proves That It's Far Behind The Western World (http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russia-s-involvement-in-syria-proves-that-its-far-behin-1794966734)

...Russia has a long way to go before its full military can be labeled as fully modern. Some elements are very modern, some parts of some weapons are modern and most of the military is nowhere close to being able to conduct a sustained modern war with a near-peer. Russia may say it’s impressed with its military performance in Syria and they should be considering how badly they performed during their last combat operations against the military juggernaut of Georgia in 2008. But that doesn’t mean anybody else has to be impressed with its janky old killing apparatus.As can be seen, Outlaw and me are not the only ones to draw similar conclusions (it's only so that I 'dared' making such statements public already back in October-November 2015).

CrowBat
05-06-2017, 08:58 AM
AND it does not stop Assad from continuing to attacks areas not in the safe zone....
On the contrary, it defines what areas are Russians and the IRGC going to attack in the future.

The only thing that makes me wonder is Turkish agreement to such conditions: Ankara must feel completely isolated from all of its glorious allies in the NATO.

But then, what should Erdo do at the times 'even' Washington is doing its best to threaten the very existence of Turkey as a national state - through supporting the PKK: request help according to Article 5 of the NATO Charta...?

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 09:37 AM
On the contrary, it defines what areas are Russians and the IRGC going to attack in the future.

The only thing that makes me wonder is Turkish agreement to such conditions: Ankara must feel completely isolated from all of its glorious allies in the NATO.

But then, what should Erdo do at the times 'even' Washington is doing its best to threaten the very existence of Turkey as a national state - through supporting the PKK: request help according to Article 5 of the NATO Charta...?

CrowBat you are reading my thoughts lately...Turkey does right now feel totally alone within NATO...granted Erdogan has contributed to that problem with his own coup and counter coup and his destruction of his officer corps and AF...but on the whole the actions of the US a fellow NATO partner smacks of treason and selling out of a key NATO southern flank NATO partner....

Why "smacks"...it is treason when one nation state openly and completely supports...trains and fights with at least FIVE major US named terrorist groups ALL just as dedicated against Turkey as well as FSA...

Actually it would be interesting if in fact Turkey called for a major NATO meeting and asked for Article 5 to be triggered as it feels threatened and under attack by PKK supported by Russia, Iran and the US.....

WHAT is extremely interesting is that this whole Russian Trump thingy has US MSM so wrapped up right now that they are not seeing what is ongoing inside Syria or for that matter eastern Ukraine and that the US government is actually supporting FIVE named terrorist groups...AND it is suppose to be fighting only two AQ/IS....

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 09:50 AM
As expected: #Qaboun this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEhra9ZIEug#

The #Kremlin regime's de-escalation zones in #Syria perfectly work ... only for #AssadPutin of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKV2MW-VU3s#

Syria Regime howitzer & rockets Hit #Daraa City & suburbs

Crowdsourced Geolocation and Analysis of Coalition Airstrike Videos from Syria and Iraq via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/05/05/geolocated-coalition-videos/#

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 09:59 AM
UNDER the rubric of WOW.........

Russian MoD: What distinguishes Russian special forces officers from US comrades? Intellect and resoluteness.
http://tass.com/politics/944893

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 11:19 AM
Hama: #Assad regime attacking #Lataminah since the morning. Northern #Hama is part of #Assad's escalation zones.

Northern Hama under heavy Assad artillery fire.....

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 07:49 PM
Hatay governor denying that Turkish Army will enter #Idlib

Maghwar al-Thawra established a checkpoint at Tanf / Al-Walid border crossing.Civilians are now able to pass the border

Azor
05-07-2017, 01:04 AM
Azor (and all others thinking the same way), here a nice summary on why all your thinking about 'Russia could do this or that' to counter whatever kind of Western military ops in Syria - is such a way off

That's rich, considering I have posted reports from The Jamestown Foundation and others, including by Roger McDermott, which have driven home the point about Russia's weaknesses. I have also referred to Russian operations in Syria as a very "poor man's Desert Storm", if that. I've been waiting for FoxtrotAlpha to confirm these assertions with baited breath...

So if you're going to snipe, do me the courtesy of actually reading what I write, rather than what you want me to have written. I get it that traveling the land of online Brohemia with Outlaw is an amazing journey, but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know? Putin has done what Catherine, Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev couldn't. Or are all contradictions smoothed out in Brohemia?

Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays. Last I checked the honor of the Turkish flag and the feasibility of blockade running hung in the balance...

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 09:06 AM
That's rich, considering I have posted reports from The Jamestown Foundation and others, including by Roger McDermott, which have driven home the point about Russia's weaknesses. I have also referred to Russian operations in Syria as a very "poor man's Desert Storm", if that. I've been waiting for FoxtrotAlpha to confirm these assertions with baited breath...

So if you're going to snipe, do me the courtesy of actually reading what I write, rather than what you want me to have written. I get it that traveling the land of online Brohemia with Outlaw is an amazing journey, but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know? Putin has done what Catherine, Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev couldn't. Or are all contradictions smoothed out in Brohemia?

Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays. Last I checked the honor of the Turkish flag and the feasibility of blockade running hung in the balance...

Let's see...if I currently check Russian non linear efforts....and even if they are basically hanging on in Syria....THEY are in fact holding Syria together, together with Iran...they hold now permanent bases long term in Syria/Med and are positioned solidly on the NATO southern flank the last time I checked..they have built A2AD bubbles in the ME and sit next to Israel and they are allowing advanced weapons to flow via Iran to Hezbollah....they hold eastern Ukraine and will not leave there...they massively interfered in the US election and yesterday in France and are starting to in Germany.

AND the Trump WH and Trump response is exactly what again?

So when you get ready to actually "accept" ground reality and that is exactly what CrowBat and I attempt to show you...you are off base with your comments...

Every notice lately that the chatter coming from the US Trump WH and Trump and his TLAMs "somehow" does not match ground reality???

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 09:15 AM
That's rich, considering I have posted reports from The Jamestown Foundation and others, including by Roger McDermott, which have driven home the point about Russia's weaknesses. I have also referred to Russian operations in Syria as a very "poor man's Desert Storm", if that. I've been waiting for FoxtrotAlpha to confirm these assertions with baited breath...

So if you're going to snipe, do me the courtesy of actually reading what I write, rather than what you want me to have written. I get it that traveling the land of online Brohemia with Outlaw is an amazing journey, but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know? Putin has done what Catherine, Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev couldn't. Or are all contradictions smoothed out in Brohemia?

Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays. Last I checked the honor of the Turkish flag and the feasibility of blockade running hung in the balance...

Sniping..strange comment for someone who basically repackages our comments and then cut and pastes their comments.....that is really easy to do.

Seriously take the recent PKK posting say from Orton ..take CrowBat's...comments on the PKK and then take Trump/CENTCOM/SOF comments on PKK and THEN tell me we do not have a serious FP breakdown in the Trump rush to "eradicate IS from the face of the earth"....

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 09:45 AM
CrowBat...anything on this development since last night?

BREAKING: Opposition source tells Rudaw reporter that Turkish army will be deployed tonight to Syria's Idlib to enforce de-escalation zones

Lots of chatter that #Turkey is considering interfering in #Idlib in order to separate opposition forces from #HTS - as per #Astana plan.

Concurrently, rumor is rife in #Idlib that #HTS may be preparing for attacks on Faylaq al-Sham, the most powerful FSA group in area.

Tensions between #HTS & the opposition have been constant since Jan '17 - but intensified lately as FSA groups consider unity/ops room.

Depending on substance of rumors, #HTS may pre-emptively attack potential threats (again); or build tensions enough to deter #Turkey.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 09:45 AM
Predictably, Syria "safe" zones didn't stay safe for long: pro-government planes & artillery already attack in Hama.


The #FSA burned pro-#Assad troops, trying to advance in northern #Hama province despite the #Astana deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eicemf-iPeU&feature=youtu.be&oref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3De icemf-iPeU%26feature%3Dyoutu.be&has_verified=1#…

Also the so-called #Homs De-Escalation Zone was shelled while #Kremlin regime jets hovered above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ByMmXBj1aY#…

Lataminah today,a town inside the "Wider Idlib De-Escalation Zone"
The #AssadPutin army ignored the deal of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeUkehuKFN4&feature=youtu.be#…

Pro-#Assad activists make no secret out of the fact that their dictator's army ignores the #DeEscalationZones deal in northern #Hama prov.

davidbfpo
05-07-2017, 09:52 AM
The tone here has changed of late, with words like 'sniping' and 'that's rich'. Is that really necessary? Please remember others read the forums and it is very likely the tone discourages them from contributing.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 10:02 AM
By Pavel Felgenhauer at Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/putin-calls-safe-zones-syria-russian-supervision/

Selected Excerpt:

The authors of this article really do need to study every Russian offered eastern Ukraine and Syrian ceasefire and then tell me Russia was ever going to hold to it?

It does not take a rocket scientist to see they never have held to a single ceasefire that they themselves have both pushed and then signed....

Day 2 of the #DeEscalationZones farce.
#AssadPutin & #Iran keep attacking where they need to according to their #Syria strategies.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 10:07 AM
Azor...this is why you must pay more attention to what CrowBat and I both post here.....

Although in Iraq..this is a serious indicator of IS eventually going back to gerrilla warfare from which they evolved in the first place.....

I saw the first versions of this in a major battle in Diyala 2005...and it has further evolved....

They will never be "militarily defeated"...

The first launcher is a standardised anti-tank weapon cobbled together by IS in Mosul. The second appears to fire a more powerful rocket.

Azor...BTW...all this talk about "defeating IS" is exactly what it is..."talk"...while they are supposedly losing in Mosul and Raqqa...IS is back into their standard sanctuary of Diyala and the Diyala River Basin which was their fall back position every time they got pushed out of Mosul...Ramadi..Baghdad..etc...from 2003 until 2010.

THIS has to be the 90th time US and or Iraqi forces have moved into Diyala....

Iraqi forces launch an "extensive operations" to root out Isis in Diyala after latest Isis attacks

IS is back to the basics again..guerrilla warfare and they practice that very well....

There are areas in the Diyala River Basin that make the jungles of SVN look "friendly"....

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 10:21 AM
Trump to Tell Turkey: We’re Going to Take Raqqa With the Kurds
The White House is poised to greenlight an Obama administration plan to seize the last bastion of the Islamic State in Syria.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/05/trump-to-tell-turkey-were-going-to-take-raqqa-with-the-kurds/

If in fact confirmed then Turkey might in fact now nudge themselves ever closer to Russia as they view the US in the same light as the PKK...AND they now know that the countless US official statements given to Turkey concerning US support to and control of PKK are basically a farce...and not to be trusted....this might in fact be why they agreed to the Russian/Iranian proposed safe zones agreement...when the FSA did not agree to them....

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 10:26 AM
IMPORTANT to read and fully understand the implications of this article...

Jihadi Clerics Dispute Legitimacy of Hay’at Tahrir#al-Sham
By#Kyle Orton#(@KyleWOrton) on 30 April 2017
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/04/30/jihadi-clerics-dispute-legitimacy-of-hayat-tahrir-al-sham/

AND understand the implications of these articles as well....

Al-Qaeda in Syria Condemn Jaysh al-Islam for East Ghuta#Infighting
By#Kyle Orton#(@KyleWOrton) on 4#May 2017
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/05/04/al-qaeda-in-syria-condemn-jaysh-al-islam-for-east-ghuta-infighting/

Al-Qaeda Aligned Jihadist in Syria Condemns Rebel Group Jaysh#al-Islam
By#Kyle Orton#(@KyleWOrton) on 2 May 2017
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/05/02/al-qaeda-aligned-jihadist-in-syria-condemns-rebel-group-jaysh-al-islam/

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 12:16 PM
Syrian Kurdish fighters are newly armed w/ sophisticated American combat equipment as they close in on Raqqa
http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/syrian-kurds-ypg-us-military-weapons#

SO will now Turkey ramp up heavily arming FSA units in order to counter this equipment as it gets directly into the hands of PKK units fighting inside Turkey?

AND will Turkey believe CENTCOM/SOF/Trump when they say it will not get into PKK hands????

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 04:09 PM
Hama: #Zilaqiat village is under regime control. Pro-#Assad forces will try to advance next week if rebels don't launch an offensive.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 04:18 PM
CrowBat...anything on this development since last night?

BREAKING: Opposition source tells Rudaw reporter that Turkish army will be deployed tonight to Syria's Idlib to enforce de-escalation zones

Lots of chatter that #Turkey is considering interfering in #Idlib in order to separate opposition forces from #HTS - as per #Astana plan.

Concurrently, rumor is rife in #Idlib that #HTS may be preparing for attacks on Faylaq al-Sham, the most powerful FSA group in area.

Tensions between #HTS & the opposition have been constant since Jan '17 - but intensified lately as FSA groups consider unity/ops room.

Depending on substance of rumors, #HTS may pre-emptively attack potential threats (again); or build tensions enough to deter #Turkey.

Idlib: If #Turkey would enter #Idlib Province, the Turkish army would come with 1000s of soldiers and dozens of main battle tanks.

So, if you see only 30 soldiers and 2 tanks at the Turkish - Syrian border, it's clear that they will not enter "in the coming hours".

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 04:21 PM
Western media: "#Syria|n ceasefire crumbles. #Assad regime bombs rebels and advances despite #ceasefire." Oh really. Big surprise.

Hama: Pro-#Assad forces shelling Northern #Hama with 100s of Grad rockets and artillery shells today.

Hama: 40+ heavy #Assad/#Russia|n airstrikes on Northern #Hama since the morning. Pro-#Assad forces trying to capture #Zilaqiat village.

Damascus: #Assad Republican Guard Colonel was badly wounded by a rebel sniper in besieged #Qaboun today.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 04:24 PM
Damascus: Rebels destroyed another armoured #Assad vehicle in besieged #Qaboun today.

Hama: Rebels have killed #Assad Brigadier General Yahya Baloush near #Zilaqiat village in Northern #Hama. He was from #Jableh, #Latakia.

Hama: Rebels blowing up #Assad regime technical with #TOW in Northern #Hama today.

Daraa: Rebels and #ISIS shelling each other in Western #Daraa since weeks. Both sides erected huge earth walls.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 04:34 PM
New map for N. #Hama: on second day of "de-escalation zones" Regime seized over #Zilaqiat CP from Rebels.

CrowBat
05-07-2017, 04:54 PM
That's rich, considering I have posted reports from...Well, the sarcast in me would like to say that posting links is not the same like reading their content, and reading means anything else than 'automatically' understanding the content, 'too'.

But OK. So, you've posted such links, citing realities about the Russian military - but then went to extension to plaster me with posts about what kind of military miracles could Russia pull in the case of the US + allies declaring an aerial blockade of Syria, back in 2013...?

You know, you're free to call what I did in response to your posts - 'sniping'. But, you'll also have to admit (foremost to yourself), that

a) you didn't read carefully what I wrote about an aerial blockade of Syria (obvious alone by the fact you came back talking about 'no-fly zones' etc.), and

b) your reaction to misunderstanding what I wrote in this regards, and making you aware of your misunderstanding

...was, from my POV, only comparable with an 'artillery barrage'.


...but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know?Beg your pardon: is the war in Ukraine over? The one in Syria?

I didn't follow the news the last two days, so want to make sure: you, namely, are now explaining that they are - and that Russia 'won'.


Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays.Why not? Your troops control the battlefield I've left for the lack of time; so, as your technical teams are collecting all the equipment left behind, my snipers are sniping at them. Where's the problem about that?

Should you consider that 'unfair', I'll be happy to add a few air strikes too. ;-)

CrowBat
05-07-2017, 04:56 PM
New map for N. #Hama: on second day of "de-escalation zones" Regime seized over #Zilaqiat CP from Rebels.
Is that confirmed? Just read some report stressing such claims were premature and the fourth assault was beaten back.

EDIT: even more so since the FSyA should've killed Yahya Baloush (https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/861203322145058816), one of 'brigade commanders' of (whatever was left of) 4th Division (seems, this was a TOW-shot).

Azor
05-07-2017, 05:37 PM
The tone here has changed of late, with words like 'sniping' and 'that's rich'. Is that really necessary? Please remember others read the forums and it is very likely the tone discourages them from contributing.

Acknowledged, David.

I would certainly like others to contribute here as it sometimes feels as though it is a very select few's show. I've tried to argue the ideas rather than the person, but after getting inundated with responses such as -


You don't get it
Reread x
Listen to y
Attend Frunze or WestPoint
You didn't serve in Vietnam, so how can you know x
You didn't serve in Iraq, so how can you know y

- I can only conclude that we are debating the person rather than the idea.

And it is annoying that when someone cannot refute your argument, that they ignore you and then re-emerge to gang-up and take potshots. I'm sure you've read enough of my commentary that you can tell what points I've actually made and what points of mine have been twisted into strawmen.

Apologies for losing my cool.

Azor
05-07-2017, 06:17 PM
Well, the sarcast in me would like to say that posting links is not the same like reading their content, and reading means anything else than 'automatically' understanding the content, 'too'.

Do you mean something like this?
http://i.imgur.com/thQoMxh.jpg

You do realize that there are various threads on the Russian military and on Russia's war in Ukraine at SWC, right? My opinions on Russian capabilities, with or without supporting analysis, are documented there as far back as 2014.

Yet I have never asserted that I am right about Russia. What I have attempted to do is counter those claims that Russia is as weak as she was in the late 1990s and early 2000s, as well as those that she is quite strong.

What I can say for sure is that I know popular perceptions of Russia's capabilities are invariably outdated and tilted toward extremes. I also know that Russia has improved markedly since the First Chechen War, and steadily from 2nd Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine and Syria.


But OK. So, you've posted such links, citing realities about the Russian military - but then went to extension to plaster me with posts about what kind of military miracles could Russia pull in the case of the US + allies declaring an aerial blockade of Syria, back in 2013...?

Not at all. What I am arguing is intentions, and what you are arguing is capabilities.

You will note that I have asserted before in threads on Syria that Turkey could on its own: turn the Black Sea into a NATO "lake"; impose a no-fly zone in Syria; and neutralize those Russian forces in Syria. So why doesn't Ankara opt for this? Well, we both know why...

The issue is not one of a "military miracle" but of political will. Does the Kremlin have the political will to fly through a U.S. aerial blockade? Does the White House have the political will to shoot down a Russian aircraft in Syrian airspace?


You know, you're free to call what I did in response to your posts - 'sniping'. But, you'll also have to admit (foremost to yourself), that

a) you didn't read carefully what I wrote about an aerial blockade of Syria (obvious alone by the fact you came back talking about 'no-fly zones' etc.), and

b) your reaction to misunderstanding what I wrote in this regards, and making you aware of your misunderstanding

...was, from my POV, only comparable with an 'artillery barrage'.

From my POV, you were deliberately twisting what I had written. To refer back to the Berlin Airlift, the U.S. and U.K. were hopelessly weaker than their adversary and had no capability to lift the blockade by force. They won the battle of wills despite having no capabilities and without firing a shot in anger.

In August 2013, Russia had only an unused dock at Tartus and additional security at its embassy in Damascus. Therefore, from the Russian perspective, there would have been little to distinguish an aerial blockade from a no-fly zone, as their aircraft were not in theater yet. Either way, the battle of political wills is the same whether Russian aircraft are violating a NFZ or a blockade. While Turkey and Jordan could be expected to close their airspace to Russian military aircraft, I find it doubtful that Iran, Iraq and Lebanon would do likewise, much less back up the closure with force. Moreover, there is the Mediterranean to consider...


Beg your pardon: is the war in Ukraine over? The one in Syria? I didn't follow the news the last two days, so want to make sure: you, namely, are now explaining that they are - and that Russia 'won'.

Well, perhaps before declaring solidarity with some contributors to argue against other contributors, you should do some due diligence as to their views, which are "plastered" all over SWC and SWJ.

Here is a relevant example for you:


THEY [the Ivans] are in fact holding Syria together, together with Iran...they hold now permanent bases long term in Syria/Med and are positioned solidly on the NATO southern flank the last time I checked…they have built A2AD bubbles in the ME and sit next to Israel and they are allowing advanced weapons to flow via Iran to Hezbollah...

There must be so many IDF pilots with liquefied bowels that there is now a readiness problem...

I can't imagine how the Porter and Ross were able to get away with striking Shayrat, but I know that your expertise is in regards to the air, so I'll let others answer how the U.S. Navy, with their pitiful Harpoons (if even) and Tomahawks were able to pierce the dreaded bubble...

Azor
05-07-2017, 06:54 PM
Let's see...if I currently check Russian non-linear efforts....and even if they are basically hanging on in Syria....THEY are in fact holding Syria together, together with Iran...they hold now permanent bases long term in Syria/Med and are positioned solidly on the NATO southern flank the last time I checked…they have built A2AD bubbles in the ME and sit next to Israel and they are allowing advanced weapons to flow via Iran to Hezbollah...they hold eastern Ukraine and will not leave there...they massively interfered in the US election and yesterday in France and are starting to in Germany.

Pardon me, but A2/AD “bubbles”?

There are bubbles and there are bubbles. There are the large bubbles one finds in Prosecco and the tiny bubbles one finds in Veuve Clicquot. I thought that the dreaded S-300 and S-400 had been put to bed, including by CrowBat, among others. I had thought wrong.

If Russia is knowingly providing advanced weapons to Hezbollah, either directly or indirectly, then why allow Israel to intervene in Syrian airspace and attack Iranian or Syrian shipments to Hezbollah?

How is Russia “positioned solidly” on NATO’s southern flank, if it had to cannibalize the Western and Southern Military Districts merely to have a presence in the eastern Mediterranean? Should NATO not rejoice that more assets are facing Turkey rather than the weak Baltic republics or Poland or Romania?

The Russians may well leave Donbas, but they will not leave Crimea.


So when you get ready to actually "accept" ground reality and that is exactly what CrowBat and I attempt to show you...you are off base with your comments...

What “ground reality”? You and CrowBat differ widely on Russian capabilities…


Sniping...strange comment for someone who basically repackages our comments and then cut and pastes their comments...that is really easy to do.

I already explained that I do that for brevity and clarity. I paste your entire comments into Word and then start from there. Shall I screenshot it for you?

Nor do I ignore those comments I agree with, as I will respond with “agreed”.


Seriously take the recent PKK posting say from Orton...take CrowBat's...comments on the PKK and then take Trump/CENTCOM/SOF comments on PKK and THEN tell me we do not have a serious FP breakdown in the Trump rush to "eradicate IS from the face of the earth"...

U.S. policies in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria have never struck me as being good long-term strategies, but I do understand why the U.S. has taken these courses of action, even if I believe that they are marches to folly. Unfortunately, the prosecution of wars abroad tend to be influenced by the vagaries of politics at home, and this is especially true of small wars of choice.

It may well be the PKK and PYD that lose out in the end. The amount of materiel provided to the YPG is not sufficient to make a difference in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, and if the PYD decides that the liberation of Turkish Kurds is a priority, they will be vulnerable to the Sunni, Shia and Christian Arabs alike in “Rojava”.

Kurdish independence is a threat to Baghdad, Damascus and Teheran as much as it is to Ankara, and however much Washington and Moscow find them useful for a variety of reasons, neither has an incentive to father an independent "Kurdistan". Washington already has a de facto Kurdish state in northern Iraq that both it and Ankara are comfortable with. Nor have I seen any evidence that Assad is feeling particularly magnanimous towards his Kurdish subjects.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 07:22 PM
Pardon me, but A2/AD “bubbles”?

There are bubbles and there are bubbles. There are the large bubbles one finds in Prosecco and the tiny bubbles one finds in Veuve Clicquot. I thought that the dreaded S-300 and S-400 had been put to bed, including by CrowBat, among others. I had thought wrong.

If Russia is knowingly providing advanced weapons to Hezbollah, either directly or indirectly, then why allow Israel to intervene in Syrian airspace and attack Iranian or Syrian shipments to Hezbollah?

How is Russia “positioned solidly” on NATO’s southern flank, if it had to cannibalize the Western and Southern Military Districts merely to have a presence in the eastern Mediterranean? Should NATO not rejoice that more assets are facing Turkey rather than the weak Baltic republics or Poland or Romania?

The Russians may well leave Donbas, but they will not leave Crimea.



What “ground reality”? You and CrowBat differ widely on Russian capabilities…



I already explained that I do that for brevity and clarity. I paste your entire comments into Word and then start from there. Shall I screenshot it for you?

Nor do I ignore those comments I agree with, as I will respond with “agreed”.



U.S. policies in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria have never struck me as being good long-term strategies, but I do understand why the U.S. has taken these courses of action, even if I believe that they are marches to folly. Unfortunately, the prosecution of wars abroad tend to be influenced by the vagaries of politics at home, and this is especially true of small wars of choice.

It may well be the PKK and PYD that lose out in the end. The amount of materiel provided to the YPG is not sufficient to make a difference in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, and if the PYD decides that the liberation of Turkish Kurds is a priority, they will be vulnerable to the Sunni, Shia and Christian Arabs alike in “Rojava”.

Kurdish independence is a threat to Baghdad, Damascus and Teheran as much as it is to Ankara, and however much Washington and Moscow find them useful for a variety of reasons, neither has an incentive to father an independent "Kurdistan". Washington already has a de facto Kurdish state in northern Iraq that both it and Ankara are comfortable with. Nor have I seen any evidence that Assad is feeling particularly magnanimous towards his Kurdish subjects.

You are all over the map stay on the thread....
They have in fact already fathered a Kurdish state of you check the area under PKK control....and it sits exactly on the border does it not to Turkey AWAY from Damascus and Iran and actually the rest of Iraq....

Russia will not ever leave will Donbass...not sure where you get your info...if anything changes...they are preparing to truly blame Girkin for the invasion into eastern Ukraine but that is about how far they will go.

Reference Russia actions inside Syria...not sure what you mean by cannibalizing anything...with ease they have deployed a strong BDE plus and the rest is being backfilled with PMUs and Spetsnaz and they seem to be expanding Assad's area nicely the last time I checked....and if they are in Kurdish Afrin THEN they sit on the NATO southern flank.... CAN they still hit the broadside of a barn with a bomb not they cannot...are they getting a heck of a lot of flying time for their pilots yes they..... are they getting combat ground time in both eastern Ukraine and Syria for their Spetsnaz units...hell yes...

Actually I might not be so different than CrowBat on his Russian estimates...we just differ on the tactics they are employing....

Concerning A2AD...anything that flies...carries a warhead and has a seeking guidance system is an inherent threat to AC....regardless of range...it still is a A2Ad threat to incoming AC that has to be suppressed.....

Ask the USAF how many AC got shot down over NVN by the older SAM2/3s being fired in barrages as a way to defeat US SEAD abilities...

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 07:29 PM
Do you mean something like this?
http://i.imgur.com/thQoMxh.jpg

You do realize that there are various threads on the Russian military and on Russia's war in Ukraine at SWC, right? My opinions on Russian capabilities, with or without supporting analysis, are documented there as far back as 2014.

Yet I have never asserted that I am right about Russia. What I have attempted to do is counter those claims that Russia is as weak as she was in the late 1990s and early 2000s, as well as those that she is quite strong.

What I can say for sure is that I know popular perceptions of Russia's capabilities are invariably outdated and tilted toward extremes. I also know that Russia has improved markedly since the First Chechen War, and steadily from 2nd Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine and Syria.



Not at all. What I am arguing is intentions, and what you are arguing is capabilities.

You will note that I have asserted before in threads on Syria that Turkey could on its own: turn the Black Sea into a NATO "lake"; impose a no-fly zone in Syria; and neutralize those Russian forces in Syria. So why doesn't Ankara opt for this? Well, we both know why...

The issue is not one of a "military miracle" but of political will. Does the Kremlin have the political will to fly through a U.S. aerial blockade? Does the White House have the political will to shoot down a Russian aircraft in Syrian airspace?



From my POV, you were deliberately twisting what I had written. To refer back to the Berlin Airlift, the U.S. and U.K. were hopelessly weaker than their adversary and had no capability to lift the blockade by force. They won the battle of wills despite having no capabilities and without firing a shot in anger.

In August 2013, Russia had only an unused dock at Tartus and additional security at its embassy in Damascus. Therefore, from the Russian perspective, there would have been little to distinguish an aerial blockade from a no-fly zone, as their aircraft were not in theater yet. Either way, the battle of political wills is the same whether Russian aircraft are violating a NFZ or a blockade. While Turkey and Jordan could be expected to close their airspace to Russian military aircraft, I find it doubtful that Iran, Iraq and Lebanon would do likewise, much less back up the closure with force. Moreover, there is the Mediterranean to consider...



Well, perhaps before declaring solidarity with some contributors to argue against other contributors, you should do some due diligence as to their views, which are "plastered" all over SWC and SWJ.

Here is a relevant example for you:



There must be so many IDF pilots with liquefied bowels that there is now a readiness problem...

I can't imagine how the Porter and Ross were able to get away with striking Shayrat, but I know that your expertise is in regards to the air, so I'll let others answer how the U.S. Navy, with their pitiful Harpoons (if even) and Tomahawks were able to pierce the dreaded bubble...

BTW you cannot export intentions unless you have capabilities is an old saying...


Not at all. What I am arguing is intentions, and what you are arguing is capabilities.

Russia has in fact shown the ability to sustain her field army and AF in Syria which has actually surprised many....and even "surged when needed".....

Are their capabilities close to the US heck no...but they are learning and that is a problem in the end....

If you look at their recent series of massive snap exercises TOGETHER with their combat ops in Syria and eastern Ukraine they can field an attack force of 150,000 in first line units in literally hours and NATO or the US???

What 1-1.5 BDES at the most in days.....

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 07:35 PM
Acknowledged, David.

I would certainly like others to contribute here as it sometimes feels as though it is a very select few's show. I've tried to argue the ideas rather than the person, but after getting inundated with responses such as -


You don't get it
Reread x
Listen to y
Attend Frunze or WestPoint
You didn't serve in Vietnam, so how can you know x
You didn't serve in Iraq, so how can you know y

- I can only conclude that we are debating the person rather than the idea.

And it is annoying that when someone cannot refute your argument, that they ignore you and then re-emerge to gang-up and take potshots. I'm sure you've read enough of my commentary that you can tell what points I've actually made and what points of mine have been twisted into strawmen.

Apologies for losing my cool.

Then answer the critical issue right now...the US failed Kurdish FP that will lead to a coming decade of violence in the ME...which has been posted in depth.....

It is serious and will haunt the US in the future..but hey TLAMs seem to be the Trump answer...

CrowBat
05-08-2017, 06:38 AM
Azor,
it's perfectly possible there is a ton of threads on the Russian military, Ukraine etc. elsewhere around the SWC, but sorry: got no time to follow them (too). I primarily come here to 'follow' the SCW, scan news to check if I've missed something important, and - occasionally - comment.

Furthermore, I'm nowhere near as sophisticated as you think I am and often fail to be as direct as I would prefer to be.

Therefore, all I've got to gauge about you is what you post in this thread.

In this, and therefore in the case of our ongoing exchange (and this will certainly be my final post to this topic, no matter whether you understand, accept, or fail to understand, or disagree with it, because I've really got no time for this any more), I can only conclude that it was you who 'misread/misunderstood' my ideas re. aerial blockade of Syria - combined with other, non-military sort of measures.

As of 2013, even Iran was in no position to widen its military intervention in Syria: it was out of money and under severe economic embargo. Even if, any widening of its military intervention in Syria would've set on all the possible alarm bells in the West. Russia was neither politically nor militarily in capacity to launch an intervention there - especially not if the West would've announced an aerial blockade of Syria.

In this way, the West could've prevented an incredibly big flow of events that happened ever since.

I see this as better confirmed and substantiated nowadays than ever before. In this regards, no 'critique' and no argumentation from you is going to change my opinion.

What happened instead was that Oblabla's foreign policy, which can be easily summarized as 'I can't see further than the tip of my nose, but I'm so damn smarter than everybody else... therefore: what's going on in Syria has no direct or indirect impact upon the West, and is of nobody's interest... while selling a few hundreds of airliners to Iran and reserving a place in history for me are of far higher national interests for the USA'.

Result: Iranian Nuclear Treaty - a honourable intention, all provided there would be a consequent and meaningful way of controlling its fulfilment - and a 'carte blanche' for Iran to do in Syria whatever it wants to do.

And the first thing Iran did was to call Russia to join the party.

I.e. the Russian military intervention in Syria became possible only because the USA have officially granted permission for an Iranian military intervention in Syria. And Putin then skillfully exploited the situation to go scoring PR-points on domestic and international plan too - for reasons and perfectly in sense of what Christoper Caldwell explained here: How to Think of Vladimir Putin (https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/think-vladimir-putin/).

So, and if that's important to you, you've got my agreement: there was 'no political will' in the West.

However, much more worrisome in this regards is that this 'no political will' remains valid until today. There was and there remains, a complete, massive, indeed gigantic failure to understand the consequences of Oblabla's decisions. And this failure is exploited by Putler - with far-reaching consequences (including a complete destabilisation of his primary 'enemy' - the EU through increasing the flow of refugees and bolstering chauvinism; Brexit; outcome of US elections of 2016, etc., etc., etc.).

This, however, was outside the scope of what I could have known as of 2013, and then also outside the scope of 'my topic', which is 'military'. And in this regards: the fact was, is/remains, and is going to remain that, even as of today, in 2017, Russia would have no - I repeat to emphasise: 0/zero - _military capability_ to breach or even circumnavigate an aerial blockade of Syria, if this would be declared by US + allies (whether true or only perceived).

Indeed, I would go as far as to say: even Putler would have no political will to try breaching that blockade - if this would be imposed (obvious by the fact that his bombers are taking a much longer route via Iran and Iraq, instead of cutting corners via Turkey when underway to Syria).

Just: that's never going to happen, because there is no political will in the West to do anything at all about Syria: instead, we're abandoning - even demonizing - traditional allies; ignoring consequences of such politics for our own well-being etc., all of this for few short-sighted ideas related to economic interests of few people.

Indeed, in this regards, our governments continue behaving in similar fashion like our media: while scientists are warning that the destruction of Earth is coming forward at such a pace that it's going to become uninhabitable within less than 100 years, this is entirely ignored and the media is full of 'news' about backsides and high-heels of various celebrities...

CrowBat
05-08-2017, 06:48 AM
Confirmed: Russian Beriyev A-50 SRDLO (AWACS) Deployed in Syria

As announced on 29 April this year (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-29-april-2017-5f65785ef52b), a photo surfaced in the social media showing a Beriyev A-50 SRDLO (Russian for 'early warning and airborne control system', i.e. AWACS), indicating a possible first deployment ever of this type in Syria.

Now there is a confirmation for this in form of Israeli satellite photos (http://www.defensenews.com/articles/satellite-imagery-shows-russian-awacs-back-in-syria).

Gauging by what little can be seen on photos that became available so far (foremost its dark grey livery), the aircraft in question belongs to one of three examples known to have been upgraded to its latest, A-50U variant.

This is a mid-life upgrade of the original A-50, introducing the Shmel-M operational system, which is capable of detecting and tracking up to 150 targets (instead of 45 of the original version) out to a range of 600km, thanks to introduction of new, solid-state, digital computers (instead of old systems from 1980s).

(Note: regardless what is stated in that article about supposed deployment of an A-50 to Syria back in '2015', such rumours appeared in the public actually in February 2016, but were never confirmed; this is the first confirmed deployment.)

What does such a deployment mean?

1.) Russians are now using 'even' the civilian terminal of Hmemmem Air Base, i.e. Basel al-Assad Airport for military purposes (then the A-50 was photographed while parked on this side of the airport);

2.) Russians have concluded they need a much better control of Syrian airspace than provided by their 'super turbo' S-300 and S-400 SAMs - especially so for operations over northern and eastern Syria (most of which were outside their radar range so far); and

3.) in the light of complete Western ignorance of developments in Syria, the Russians are free to further intensify their military intervention in the country.

Azor
05-08-2017, 07:43 AM
You are all over the map...

It seems that “all over the map” is your new de jour critique. Could it be that the famous “but wait” is being retired? Certainly the numerous exaggerated ellipses aren’t in danger of disappearing, are they?


…stay on the thread...

I can only assume that the lingering sting of the yellow card is behind the recent flurry of ad hominem.

Which part of my reply to you had nothing to do with either the Syria thread in general, or your original comment(s) in particular?


They have in fact already fathered a Kurdish state of you check the area under PKK control....and it sits exactly on the border does it not to Turkey AWAY from Damascus and Iran and actually the rest of Iraq...

The Americans and Russians have "fathered" a Kurdish state as much as the Iranians fathered a Houthi one in Yemen. The Syrian Kurds only became local allies of the Coalition because they had mostly stayed out of the Syrian Civil War and fought primarily against Daesh. The Syrian Kurds filled the vacuum left by Assad’s intelligent withdrawal from indefensible areas of Syria: Sunni Arab areas in the east and center, and Kurdish areas in the north. For all of the ideological and organizational ties between the PKK and PYD, I have seen no evidence of YPG fighters and/or arms crossing into Turkey. Thus far, the YPG seems to be biding its time: avoiding confronting Turkey, and staying focused on consolidating "Rojava" and preserving ties with the U.S. Lastly, the political arrangements of “Rojava” do leave something to be desired, however, there is a significant degree of local governance, including by non-Kurds and non-Muslims,

Donbas is a drain for Russia. It is useful as a spoiler like Transnistria, but will not be annexed in the way of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, much less like Crimea, which was absorbed as a federal subject.


...with ease they [Russians] have deployed a strong BDE plus and the rest is being backfilled with PMUs and Spetsnaz and they seem to be expanding Assad's area nicely the last time I checked...

For the operations in Donbas, Russia created ad hoc BTGs from elements of units across the length and breadth of Russia. This was not so much to spread the combat experience around, but because of readiness issues, as Philip Karber detailed in his ORBAT to CSIS in 2014. Then, Russia deployed elements of these BTGs to Syria to participate in pro-Assad offensives. These developments, as well as the rather meaningless reactivation of old armored divisions, seems to corroborate the constant refrain from Austin Bay and James Dunnigan from StrategyPage, who have argued that Russia only has around 100,000 well-trained and equipped ground troops, and these include regular forces and special forces, as well as paramilitary units in the new National Guard that were formerly under the MOI. Various contributors at SWC have also kept track of the various transfers between the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets as well as the naval presence in the Mediterranean.

Mercenaries played a key role in U.S.-led occupations od Afghanistan and Iraq, but the bribed degenerates in Donbas aside, Russia has yet to field a comparable mercenary force to the U.S. (more than 100,000) or Iran (more than 30,000). Note that estimates of U.S. contractors deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq during the 2006-2010 period ranged from 130,000 to 160,000 according to the Congressional Research Service. By comparison, there are perhaps 200 to 400 Russian mercenaries in Syria.

Assad is safe from being overrun but is far from being able to retake the country. Despite facing only one serious adversary, the FSA, no active threat from the YPG or Daesh, and infighting between Daesh, HTS and the FSA. Obviously 30,000 to 40,000 foreign regulars and irregulars combined with a ~100,000-strong Syrian NDF are not enough to defeat the FSA despite their numerical superiority on paper...


Actually I might not be so different than CrowBat on his Russian estimates...we just differ on the tactics they are employing...

I’m glad that the two of you have put bromance before differences of opinion. It demonstrates a high degree of emotional maturity and puts your relationship on a solid footing…

Firstly, you have claimed that Russia “now” has “permanent bases” in Syria, ostensibly including the naval base at Tartus, the leased airbase at Hmeymim and two SIGINT facilities.

However, Tartus is not a base but a “Material-Technical Support Point” per Russia’s MOD, or a glorified dock with only:


One concrete jetty used as a pier
Two pontoon bridges that serve as piers
One mooring jetty
One drydock


Nor is the Russian Navy’s reactivated 5th Squadron based at Tartus, as the facility is incapable of hosting Russia’s major warships. Years of dredging and other work is required before the Russian Navy can take full advantage of its extended lease.

As for Hmeymim, it has no hardened aircraft shelters that NATO airbases do, and hosts less aircraft and personnel than nearby NATO airbases.

Secondly, you have claimed that Russia’s “bases” threaten NATO’s “southern flank”, presumably Turkey. How? Russia has air and naval bases in Crimea that can accomplish that. Sure, Hmeymim would shave ~160 miles off a round-trip to the far end of Turkish airspace, but is this a strategic factor?

Thirdly, you have referred to Russian A2/AD bubbles threatening Israel and NATO. Yet these bubbles have only a handful of SAMs, including one S-300 and one S-400, and have no anti-ship capabilities.

Fourth, Russia’s efforts to support a relatively minor intervention in Syria has demonstrated what dire straits Russian logistics are in. The only Russian “surges” of note have been when Russia used strategic bombers to conduct strike missions. Even the Kuznetsov’s campaign resulted in more of its aircraft being lost to accidents than the enemy, and most of its air operations being conducted from Hmeymim.

On all these points, CrowBat has stated contrary opinions to yours…


Concerning A2AD...anything that flies...carries a warhead and has a seeking guidance system is an inherent threat to AC...regardless of range...it still is a A2Ad threat to incoming AC that has to be suppressed...

A2/AD also involves anti-ship capabilities in maritime areas, which Russia has not deployed in Syria. Russian defenses failed to deter or stop various Israeli airstrikes, the presence of U.S. naval forces off Syria and the recent TLAM strike on Shayrat. ‘Nuff said.


BTW you cannot export intentions unless you have capabilities is an old saying...

Then how did the U.S. and U.K. manage the airlift to West Berlin? They had no capability to lift the blockade by conventional force, the U.S. nuclear force was small and unready, and Soviet intelligence had penetrated the highest levels of both governments at that time. The “quarantine” of Cuba also involved serious risk-taking on the part of the U.S., as it did not have the conventional capability to neutralize the ballistic missile sites on Cuba without resorting to nuclear weapons.


Then answer the critical issue right now...the US failed Kurdish FP that will lead to a coming decade of violence in the ME...which has been posted in depth...

Violence will continue until 30% or more of the fighting-age males are incarcerated, killed or incapacitated by injury.

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 04:16 PM
It seems that “all over the map” is your new de jour critique. Could it be that the famous “but wait” is being retired? Certainly the numerous exaggerated ellipses aren’t in danger of disappearing, are they?



I can only assume that the lingering sting of the yellow card is behind the recent flurry of ad hominem.

Which part of my reply to you had nothing to do with either the Syria thread in general, or your original comment(s) in particular?



The Americans and Russians have "fathered" a Kurdish state as much as the Iranians fathered a Houthi one in Yemen. The Syrian Kurds only became local allies of the Coalition because they had mostly stayed out of the Syrian Civil War and fought primarily against Daesh. The Syrian Kurds filled the vacuum left by Assad’s intelligent withdrawal from indefensible areas of Syria: Sunni Arab areas in the east and center, and Kurdish areas in the north. For all of the ideological and organizational ties between the PKK and PYD, I have seen no evidence of YPG fighters and/or arms crossing into Turkey. Thus far, the YPG seems to be biding its time: avoiding confronting Turkey, and staying focused on consolidating "Rojava" and preserving ties with the U.S. Lastly, the political arrangements of “Rojava” do leave something to be desired, however, there is a significant degree of local governance, including by non-Kurds and non-Muslims,

Donbas is a drain for Russia. It is useful as a spoiler like Transnistria, but will not be annexed in the way of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, much less like Crimea, which was absorbed as a federal subject.



For the operations in Donbas, Russia created ad hoc BTGs from elements of units across the length and breadth of Russia. This was not so much to spread the combat experience around, but because of readiness issues, as Philip Karber detailed in his ORBAT to CSIS in 2014. Then, Russia deployed elements of these BTGs to Syria to participate in pro-Assad offensives. These developments, as well as the rather meaningless reactivation of old armored divisions, seems to corroborate the constant refrain from Austin Bay and James Dunnigan from StrategyPage, who have argued that Russia only has around 100,000 well-trained and equipped ground troops, and these include regular forces and special forces, as well as paramilitary units in the new National Guard that were formerly under the MOI. Various contributors at SWC have also kept track of the various transfers between the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets as well as the naval presence in the Mediterranean.

Mercenaries played a key role in U.S.-led occupations od Afghanistan and Iraq, but the bribed degenerates in Donbas aside, Russia has yet to field a comparable mercenary force to the U.S. (more than 100,000) or Iran (more than 30,000). Note that estimates of U.S. contractors deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq during the 2006-2010 period ranged from 130,000 to 160,000 according to the Congressional Research Service. By comparison, there are perhaps 200 to 400 Russian mercenaries in Syria.

Assad is safe from being overrun but is far from being able to retake the country. Despite facing only one serious adversary, the FSA, no active threat from the YPG or Daesh, and infighting between Daesh, HTS and the FSA. Obviously 30,000 to 40,000 foreign regulars and irregulars combined with a ~100,000-strong Syrian NDF are not enough to defeat the FSA despite their numerical superiority on paper...



I’m glad that the two of you have put bromance before differences of opinion. It demonstrates a high degree of emotional maturity and puts your relationship on a solid footing…

Firstly, you have claimed that Russia “now” has “permanent bases” in Syria, ostensibly including the naval base at Tartus, the leased airbase at Hmeymim and two SIGINT facilities.

However, Tartus is not a base but a “Material-Technical Support Point” per Russia’s MOD, or a glorified dock with only:


One concrete jetty used as a pier
Two pontoon bridges that serve as piers
One mooring jetty
One drydock


Nor is the Russian Navy’s reactivated 5th Squadron based at Tartus, as the facility is incapable of hosting Russia’s major warships. Years of dredging and other work is required before the Russian Navy can take full advantage of its extended lease.

As for Hmeymim, it has no hardened aircraft shelters that NATO airbases do, and hosts less aircraft and personnel than nearby NATO airbases.

Secondly, you have claimed that Russia’s “bases” threaten NATO’s “southern flank”, presumably Turkey. How? Russia has air and naval bases in Crimea that can accomplish that. Sure, Hmeymim would shave ~160 miles off a round-trip to the far end of Turkish airspace, but is this a strategic factor?

Thirdly, you have referred to Russian A2/AD bubbles threatening Israel and NATO. Yet these bubbles have only a handful of SAMs, including one S-300 and one S-400, and have no anti-ship capabilities.

Fourth, Russia’s efforts to support a relatively minor intervention in Syria has demonstrated what dire straits Russian logistics are in. The only Russian “surges” of note have been when Russia used strategic bombers to conduct strike missions. Even the Kuznetsov’s campaign resulted in more of its aircraft being lost to accidents than the enemy, and most of its air operations being conducted from Hmeymim.

On all these points, CrowBat has stated contrary opinions to yours…



A2/AD also involves anti-ship capabilities in maritime areas, which Russia has not deployed in Syria. Russian defenses failed to deter or stop various Israeli airstrikes, the presence of U.S. naval forces off Syria and the recent TLAM strike on Shayrat. ‘Nuff said.



Then how did the U.S. and U.K. manage the airlift to West Berlin? They had no capability to lift the blockade by conventional force, the U.S. nuclear force was small and unready, and Soviet intelligence had penetrated the highest levels of both governments at that time. The “quarantine” of Cuba also involved serious risk-taking on the part of the U.S., as it did not have the conventional capability to neutralize the ballistic missile sites on Cuba without resorting to nuclear weapons.



Violence will continue until 30% or more of the fighting-age males are incarcerated, killed or incapacitated by injury.

Azor...sure wish you would post something of value than just responding and providing a running critique...then you can keep us informed on the everyday Russian/Iranian war in Syria...please respond to the postings on the Kurdish PKK and the role of US supporting a US named terrorist group which is a Communist guerrilla group vs say the current Trump Syrian FP.

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 04:21 PM
Syrian FM Muallem says Russian "deescalation zones" to be secured by RU military police. Likely new Chechen brigade.
http://www.sana.sy/?p=551650

NOTE...have already posted info concerning the new incoming Chechen MP BDE...

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 05:06 PM
Aleppo: #FSA blowing up 2 #YPG bulldozers with #ATGM southeast of #Azaz today.

Some days ago: "#Astana deal is good. #Assad regime will focus on #ISIS."

Today: "Oh no, #Assad regime attacks #FSA in Southern #Syria."

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has killed #Assad Colonel Nader Saleh Al-Hamdan in #DeirEzzor.

Palmyra: Pro-#Assad forces called #Russia|n helicopters to rescue them after many were gunned down by #ISIS today.

Huge #Assad regime offensive against #FSA in Southern #Syria. Pro-#Assad forces will try to reach the #Iraq|i border.

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 05:14 PM
Clear #footage
#Assad regime Su-22 bombing the northern "De-Escalation Zone".
The #Kremlin regime & most media claim it does not happen.

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 05:17 PM
After rebels liberated large tracts of land from #ISIS in East Qalamoun, the Assad regime that didn't attack ISIS now takes it from rebels.

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 05:20 PM
Syria #SOHR claim #Assad forces conducted 500 (air)strikes on northern #Hama the past 36 hours

I can visually confirm ~50 during that period
95% inside the Kremlin's "de-escalation zone"
Another fake ceasefire to concentrate firepower.

Latest #Syria deal is more of the same - raises more questions than answers.
=> “Good luck to the guarantors,” as one U.S official told me.

Charles Lister‏
Verified account
#@Charles_Lister 1h
Here are my thoughts on #Lavrov’s upcoming visit to #Washington tomorrow - hoping for U.S support for #Syria zones:
http://www.mei.edu/content/article/russia-seeks-us-support-syria-plan-monday-briefing#…

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 05:25 PM
Jaish Khalid ibn al-Walid reportedly executed several prisoners today, including a captured rebel commander

OUTLAW 09
05-08-2017, 05:37 PM
Rather a complicated thesis. Ignores the fact that the pro-#Assad coalition uses the #PKK to limit #Turkey in #Syria
https://goo.gl/M9AmnH

Hayat Tahrir a-Sham confiscated equipment of a reporter w/ the Idlib Media Center for "lack of license" in Jisr a-Shoughour, Idlib

Azor
05-08-2017, 06:57 PM
CrowBat,

See below. I have no wish to argue with you for the sake of arguing, and I acknowledge your expertise in various military areas. Having said that, I am holding that a U.S.-led attempt to blockade Syria or impose a no-fly or no-drive zone would have failed in the same way as the blockade of Berlin, and for very similar reasons.


As of 2013, even Iran was in no position to widen its military intervention in Syria: it was out of money and under severe economic embargo. Even if, any widening of its military intervention in Syria would've set on all the possible alarm bells in the West. Russia was neither politically nor militarily in capacity to launch an intervention there - especially not if the West would've announced an aerial blockade of Syria.

It is my understanding that the Iranian military intervention in Syria, in terms of special and mercenary forces deployed, reached full strength during the latter half of 2015 and has remained at constant levels ever since. However, Iranian military spending only grew by 1.25% per year annualized in constant USD over the 2013 through 2015 period (https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/Milex-constant-2015-USD.pdf). Therefore, despite the sharp haircut of –21% in military spending from 2012 to 2013 and the overall government spending cuts from 2013 through 2015, Iran was not deterred by sanctions or low oil prices from growing its presence in Syria.

In terms of international relations, economic conditions, fiscal wherewithal and military capacity, Russia had a much freer hand to intervene in Syria in 2013 than it did in 2014, after it had committed to invading Ukraine. Note that Russia deployed forces to Syria more than seven months after the last major battle of the Russo-Ukrainian War and after it had reinforced Crimea, and that its contribution included elements that had fought in Ukraine. By the time of the Syrian intervention, Russia had been under Western sanctions for a year and a half, had forces committed to the border with Ukraine, oil prices had cratered, Russia had burned through 19% of its forex reserves and NATO was asserting itself with rotational forces and a more ready posture.

Had they chosen to intervene in late 2013 at the level that they would do in late 2015, both Iran and Russia may well have turned to Iraq for aerial and overland logistics. In 2013, Maliki was busy excluding the Sunni Arabs from the Iraqi public sector and military, relations with Teheran were strong and relations with Washington were at a very weak point.

U.S. redeployments to Iraq began in June 2014, but were clearly incapable of halting Daesh’s progress or preventing the various massacres that Daesh committed. It was not until September that the U.S. had enough airpower over Iraq to stall Daesh’s offensives and help the Iraqi forces begin the slow process of rollback. Therefore, assuming that Iraqi permission was secured by Iran and Russia, the U.S. would have not been able to interdict a surge into Syria in time.

Back to the tricky matter of intentions. After the fiasco in Libya in 2011, it was evident that the Kremlin was determined to spoil any other U.S.-led attempts at regime change, and it believes that the uprising in Syria was at the behest of the U.S. and its allies with the objective of ousting Assad. As for Teheran, Syria is considered as vital to Iran as Belarus or Ukraine is to Russia. Arguably, the reduction of Syria’s IADS by direct SEAD/DEAD or indirectly by civil war would presage Israeli and/or U.S.-led airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

For a variety of considerations, intervening in Syria was worth the risk to both Iran and Russia in 2013. Iran would have risked improving the case for a pre-emptive war, but Iran had learned the right lessons from the destruction of Osirak, and knew the worth of being perceived as yet another victim of Israeli-American aggression.

Lastly, despite the JCPOA not being an executive agreement much less a treaty ratified by the U.S. Senate, Iran has done nothing to convince the new Administration or Congress of its good intentions. The JCPOA meant more to Obama than it did to Khamenei, and the alleged rewards to Iran for compliance have been far less than the anti-JCPOA crowd claimed.


In this way, the West could've prevented an incredibly big flow of events that happened ever since. I see this as better confirmed and substantiated nowadays than ever before. In this regards, no 'critique' and no argumentation from you is going to change my opinion.

I am not attempting to change your opinion. I will say that you have an emotional attachment to it that tends to ignore some weak premises and gloss over inconvenient dynamics.


...the fact was, is/remains, and is going to remain that, even as of today, in 2017, Russia would have no - I repeat to emphasise: 0/zero - _military capability_ to breach or even circumnavigate an aerial blockade of Syria, if this would be declared by US + allies (whether true or only perceived). Indeed, I would go as far as to say: even Putler would have no political will to try breaching that blockade - if this would be imposed (obvious by the fact that his bombers are taking a much longer route via Iran and Iraq, instead of cutting corners via Turkey when underway to Syria).


What about entering Syrian airspace by way of Iraq, the Mediterranean or Lebanon?
What about the Russians daring the U.S. and its allies to fire on them first?
What about the gaps that would have existed in the blockade coverage for months, particularly where Iraq, Lebanon and the Mediterranean were concerned?
What about objections within NATO by Greece, Italy and others?
What about Cypriot attempts to deny the use of Akrotiri?


Putin ate up the Su-24 shootdown remember, and used the tragedy for public relations gains despite having a long-term objective of bringing Erdogan closer.

Azor
05-08-2017, 07:45 PM
Azor...sure wish you would post something of value than just responding and providing a running critique...then you can keep us informed on the everyday Russian/Iranian war in Syria...please respond to the postings on the Kurdish PKK and the role of US supporting a US named terrorist group which is a Communist guerrilla group vs say the current Trump Syrian FP.

Outlaw,

I didn't realize that you were moderating here now. The war in Syria is certainly more exciting than the monotony in Donbas - except of course for those unfortunate enough to cross paths with a land mine, sniper fire or shrapnel - but currently the only developments of interest are the so-called "safe zones".

Not to repeat myself, but I would like to see U.S. aircraft challenge those zones and see if the Russians or Turks are prepared to enforce their closure to Coalition aircraft.

U.S. foreign policy with regard to Syria has been: "Daesh First".

Weeping and gnashing your teeth won't make a difference any more than it did for the Central and Eastern Europeans who were betrayed by the "Grand Alliance", and whose pre- and postwar suffering at the hands of the Russians went unremarked until the 1980s.

I have said all that I am going to on the subject of the PYD-YPG, until there is a new development.

For someone so determined to take Turkey's perspective on who are terrorists and what is terrorism without question, you would do well to apply the same lens to the burgeoning nationalism in Ukraine, which has not been disabused of its affection for its own historical terrorists...

Azor
05-08-2017, 08:30 PM
Today's headlines...


Syria rejects international forces in safe zones (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrian-rebels-families-start-leaving-damascus-neighborhood-47269338)

Mattis: US reviewing Syria safe zones but has many questions http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mattis-us-reviewing-syria-safe-zones-questions-47270927


This appears to be yet another stillborn Russian ceasefire initiative, and seems to serve a number of purposes:


Russia wants to show that it is a key Middle Eastern power broker
After the Pyrrhic victory in Aleppo and Q1 reverses, pro-Assad forces need a breather
The FSA also needs a breather
Both the FSA and pro-Assad forces want to deal with HTS
Turkey wants space to deal with the YPG
The recent strike on Shayrat has made Assad leery of further U.S. intervention
Public opinion will support any suggestion of a ceasefire and this may deter further U.S. or Turkish campaigns


Of course, none of this is relevant to the fight against Daesh. Perhaps the West will come to realize that the local actors have their own scores to settle and that Daesh is mainly a sideshow now, except of course for those goofy marchers holding candles to ward off the next atrocity in the West.

Azor
05-08-2017, 08:37 PM
Per: https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/


Sham Front destroyed a SDF bulldozer with an ATGM in Sheikh Issa
SDF repelled an attack by AAS and the Sulhan Murad Brigade on Sheikh Issa
FSA destroy two SDF bulldozers near Ayn Dakna

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 05:38 AM
Today's headlines...


Syria rejects international forces in safe zones (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrian-rebels-families-start-leaving-damascus-neighborhood-47269338)

Mattis: US reviewing Syria safe zones but has many questions http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mattis-us-reviewing-syria-safe-zones-questions-47270927


This appears to be yet another stillborn Russian ceasefire initiative, and seems to serve a number of purposes:


Russia wants to show that it is a key Middle Eastern power broker
After the Pyrrhic victory in Aleppo and Q1 reverses, pro-Assad forces need a breather
The FSA also needs a breather
Both the FSA and pro-Assad forces want to deal with HTS
Turkey wants space to deal with the YPG
The recent strike on Shayrat has made Assad leery of further U.S. intervention
Public opinion will support any suggestion of a ceasefire and this may deter further U.S. or Turkish campaigns


Of course, none of this is relevant to the fight against Daesh. Perhaps the West will come to realize that the local actors have their own scores to settle and that Daesh is mainly a sideshow now, except of course for those goofy marchers holding candles to ward off the next atrocity in the West.

Begs the question...if you and I and the Ukrainians truly know that whatever Russian "ceasefire" they themselves propose....sign onto never ever gets implemented and now we have seen it happen again and again in Syria WHY then the following....

1. Kerry/Obama celebrated each one with the statement.."we are testing the seriousness of the Russians"
2. the Trump WH and Trump himself says nothing simply because they have nothing to actually say as they have no strategy to speak of....

AND now we see Russian FM Larvor f\lying to DC to try to get the US to sign into an already failed "Russian ceasefire".....

My concern and I think CrowBat has already voiced it...why did the Turks sign on to be a guarantor? Did they do it in order to ensure Gazprom builds their pipeline which would then give them a solid transit cash flow and a cheap energy source....so were they simply bribed into the agreement?

So in the world of IR....why does any US WH believe a single word, comment, statement and or Russian "ceasefire" in the face of true reality on the part of Russian lying?

I will give an excellent example of Russian actions...for weeks and months Putin gives verbal support to LePen, provided her cash for her campaign and unleashed a massive disinformation attack on Marcon and then hacked him in the last days before the election and used US neo right proTrump supporters and even Trump tweeted support for her...THEN sends Marco a letter stating "we should overcome our differences.....meaning lift the sanctions...in full belief suddenly Marcon will forget what happened...

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 06:05 AM
BTW...I keep pointing out that as long as this is ongoing there will never be a coherent Syrian, Korean, Russian, NATO, EU FP coming out of the Trump WH or coming from a Trump tweeter barrage.

Trump is far to busy pushing back of his own Russian connections investigation.

AND the Us will never have a clear and concise counter non linear FP against cyber and information warfare.

Not sure which hearing he was watching. Either way, ladies and gents, our 'President'. It's not just us, the whole world is laughing.


BTW the last Trump tweet referring to Clappers statements...is basically a lie as that is not what Clapper stated under OATH......AND Yates also was under OATH...Trump has never been placed under OATH....

AND then Trumps signs the extension to the US visa program EB-1B for foreign investors who invest 500K in US companies...JUST has the Kushner family pitches to Chinese investors...under the mantra in China presentation invest in the Kushner real estate 500K and Trump will get you a visa for the US...

Kushner family sells $500,000 'investor visa' to rich Chinese at Beijing ballroom event.
Let that sink in.

So what does the rest of the world now think of US FP?

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 06:15 AM
AGAIN if a US President cannot be trusted to state the truth were it is possible to state the truth what do world leaders then believe he is capable of doing...definitely not formulating and defending his own FP....

Remember this was stated under a legal binding OATH which makes it a piece of potential court actions...

This is incorrect or false.
Learn more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/02/14/the-fall-of-michael-flynn-a-timeline/#…

If a sitting US President lies about this...can he hold to any stated Trump FP...if one looks closely he has been changing on just about everything stated concerning FP over the last 18 months...

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 07:18 AM
Appears that DoS and Congress slid something by the Trump WH that will effectively block a Russian reset that Trump wants to do both in ME and Europe...this was pointed out by a hardcore proRussian twitter account....evidently Trump signed the law not really knowing what was in it????

Alex Kokcharov‏#@AlexKokcharov 8h
8 hours ago

By making this bill a #US #law president #Trump effectively ended any hopes for #Russia-#US reset. Timing could not have been worse: 9 May pic.twitter.com/PdirHUpro7

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 07:25 AM
Announcer during military parade on Red Square: Russian air force displayed mastery in special missions, won respect and love of Syrians.

BUT he forgot to add...killed hundreds of civilians ...men, women and children and supported the use of sarin CWs....

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 07:31 AM
BTW...I keep pointing out that as long as this is ongoing there will never be a coherent Syrian, Korean, Russian, NATO, EU FP coming out of the Trump WH or coming from a Trump tweeter barrage.

Trump is far to busy pushing back of his own Russian connections investigation.

AND the Us will never have a clear and concise counter non linear FP against cyber and information warfare.

Not sure which hearing he was watching. Either way, ladies and gents, our 'President'. It's not just us, the whole world is laughing.


BTW the last Trump tweet referring to Clappers statements...is basically a lie as that is not what Clapper stated under OATH......AND Yates also was under OATH...Trump has never been placed under OATH....

AND then Trumps signs the extension to the US visa program EB-1B for foreign investors who invest 500K in US companies...JUST has the Kushner family pitches to Chinese investors...under the mantra in China presentation invest in the Kushner real estate 500K and Trump will get you a visa for the US...

Kushner family sells $500,000 'investor visa' to rich Chinese at Beijing ballroom event.
Let that sink in.

So what does the rest of the world now think of US FP?

Clapper: "to me the transcendent issue here is Russian interference in our elections," calls unmasking & other issues "ancillary"

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 08:14 AM
Outlaw,

I didn't realize that you were moderating here now. The war in Syria is certainly more exciting than the monotony in Donbas - except of course for those unfortunate enough to cross paths with a land mine, sniper fire or shrapnel - but currently the only developments of interest are the so-called "safe zones".

Not to repeat myself, but I would like to see U.S. aircraft challenge those zones and see if the Russians or Turks are prepared to enforce their closure to Coalition aircraft.

U.S. foreign policy with regard to Syria has been: "Daesh First".

Weeping and gnashing your teeth won't make a difference any more than it did for the Central and Eastern Europeans who were betrayed by the "Grand Alliance", and whose pre- and postwar suffering at the hands of the Russians went unremarked until the 1980s.

I have said all that I am going to on the subject of the PYD-YPG, until there is a new development.

For someone so determined to take Turkey's perspective on who are terrorists and what is terrorism without question, you would do well to apply the same lens to the burgeoning nationalism in Ukraine, which has not been disabused of its affection for its own historical terrorists...

BUT WAIT...exactly what did you state on the US/PKK hell of a mess both politically and militarily?

The increased slow step fighting between FSA and YPG which is filled to 90% by PKK fighters should be showing one where this is headed.......

Yes Ukraine is a mid level no actually a full level war in the middle of Central Europe and shows us in over two years EXACTLY what Russia "says and then does".....


For someone so determined to take Turkey's perspective on who are terrorists and what is terrorism without question, you would do well to apply the same lens to the burgeoning nationalism in Ukraine, which has not been disabused of its affection for its own historical terrorists


I would remind you I have seen PKK shotouts on the streets of Hannover Germany long before the US named them a "terrorist group" and Turkey has been dueling with them since 1978...

So in some aspects what Turkey states about PKK is exactly what the US naming of PKK as terrorists states/stated.

"Burgeoning nationalism" in Ukraine...you actually mean the following...a country seeking it's own identity after Soviet suppression since 1918 right..then German suppression and then again Soviet suppression and then Russian oligarch theft of the entire State budget for one year...that "nationalism"??..

And eastern Ukraine....a GRU exported war led by a GRU COL who is alive and well in St. Petersburg after the deaths of most of the 14 that started that war and crossed with him from Crimea into eastern Ukraine....as well as a number of Ukrainian criminals who joined him in 2014....

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 08:16 AM
OCCRP @OCCRP
The Coyote’s Trail: A Machine Gun’s Path from #Serbia to #Syria
https://www.occrp.org/en/makingakilling/the-coyotes-trail-a-machine-guns-path-from-serbia-to-syria/#


Azor...well worth reading on how Serbia and Syria fit in the Russian actions right now in the Balkans...

OCCRP are the ones who broke the Panama Papers....

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 08:21 AM
Kind of sums up the current Trump/CENTCOM/SOF FP on the Kurdish PKK....

CrowBat
05-09-2017, 01:52 PM
Syria #SOHR claim #Assad forces conducted 500 (air)strikes on northern #Hama the past 36 hours
After reading this, I've checked the last two days. Here the results:

- Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 7 May#2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-7-may-2017-63de1cf1211a)

- Air Strikes by VKS & SyAAF, 8 May 2017 (https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/air-strikes-by-vks-syaaf-8-may-2017-26a02211ce13).

Conclusions are on hand:
1.) Lataminah is bombed, especially by Assadists, but nowhere as heavily as during the closing days of April this year.

2.) In no way has anybody in Syria even ‘flown 500 air strikes’, and there can be no word about Lataminah getting hit by 500 of these in the last two days.

...and the quality of SOHR's reporting is further descending into an abyss - and this right on the heels of their complete failure to report Assadist casualties from the March-April offensive (at most, they reported ~20 non-Syrian pro-regime deaths, while the IRGC alone lost at least 50).

CrowBat
05-09-2017, 01:55 PM
Announcer during military parade on Red Square: Russian air force displayed mastery in special missions, won respect and love of Syrians.Question is: what and how many Syrians?


BUT he forgot to add...killed hundreds of civilians ...men, women and children and supported the use of sarin CWs....Alone the title of Airwars.org's report Reckless Disregard... (http://airwars.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Reckless-Disregard.pdf) says it all: casualty figures went into thousands already during the first few months of the Russian intervention...

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 04:46 PM
Question is: what and how many Syrians?

Alone the title of Airwars.org's report Reckless Disregard... (http://airwars.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Reckless-Disregard.pdf) says it all: casualty figures went into thousands already during the first few months of the Russian intervention...

BUT WAIT

Russian MoD claims they could not fly due to the rain.....

CrowBat
05-09-2017, 05:09 PM
You know what they used to say in X-Files: 'Trust no one...' ;-)

Azor
05-09-2017, 07:44 PM
RE: Russian Ceasefires

The problem is more than merely one of the Russians violating their own ceasefires. Their reliance upon disparate state and non-state actors as force multipliers – from allies of convenience such as Iran and the remnant of Syria, to local criminals, mercenaries and insurgents – has enabled Russia to project power, but at the expense of central control. Indeed, the approach that Moscow takes to expand and deepen its rule in Chechnya, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas, is the same approach that Putin uses to hold onto power in the Kremlin. The ceasefire violations at Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo were ordered directly from the Kremlin, which held escalation dominance over Ukraine. However, Moscow cannot fully control the insurgents in Donbas, let alone Teheran or Damascus, who have more skin in the game in Syria.

The issue with the “ceasefires” in Syria is less one of Russia violating them and more one of Syria and Iran ignoring them. Russian-sponsored ceasefires in Syria are about as impactful as the UN’s mediation efforts. Note that Russia appeared genuinely taken aback by the Sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun, and has not challenged Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria with Russian forces in the vicinity.

The discussions in Astana only serve to make Moscow appear more indispensable to peace in Syria than it actually is, and to regain the public relations initiative after the TLAM strike on Shayrat.

RE: Turkey and the “Safe Zones”

This is a signal of displeasure with the CJTF-OIR providing CAS to YPG forces, and to possibly help Ankara target the YPG more freely. Ankara worries that a conflict between the TAF/FSA with the YPG will lead to U.S. interference, as exemplified by the Marines attempting to establish a buffer between the YPG and the TAF/FSA.


I will give an excellent example of Russian actions...for weeks and months Putin gives verbal support to LePen, provided her cash for her campaign and unleashed a massive disinformation attack on Marcon and then hacked him in the last days before the election and used US neo right pro-Trump supporters and even Trump tweeted support for her...THEN sends Marco a letter stating "we should overcome our differences.....meaning lift the sanctions...in full belief suddenly Marcon will forget what happened...

Stay on topic please. There are numerous other soapbox threads for you.


The increased slow step fighting between FSA and YPG which is filled to 90% by PKK fighters should be showing one where this is headed...

According to U.S. sources, the SDF is comprised of 30% to 45% Arab fighters. Any ideas as to the demographics of the SDF?

Are you claiming that the YPG is comprised of 90% Turkish Kurds?


I would remind you I have seen PKK shootouts on the streets of Hannover Germany long before the US named them a "terrorist group" and Turkey has been dueling with them since 1978...So in some aspects what Turkey states about PKK is exactly what the US naming of PKK as terrorists states/stated.

I have seen Kurds up to no good myself, but that does not mean that the Kurds in Turkey should have no self-determination.

The Turks have oppressed the Kurds for five centuries. This oppression includes Turkish ethnic supremacism, endemic corruption, authoritarian rule and disrespect for human rights in general. In particular, Turkey has used paramilitaries against the Kurds in a campaign of state terrorism. These Turkish paramilitaries are not dissimilar to the Loyalist/Unionist paramilitaries of Northern Ireland: they have overlapping memberships with the security services, they engage in narcotics trafficking, extortion and other crimes and they carry out extrajudicial killings, and they are protected by the state from prosecution.

As for the incident in Hanover, what exactly are you referring to? Can you be sure that it was the PKK as opposed to non-PKK Kurds in Germany?


...you actually mean the following...a country seeking it's own identity after Soviet suppression since 1918 right..then German suppression and then again Soviet suppression and then Russian oligarch theft of the entire State budget for one year...that "nationalism"??...

I will reply on the Russo-Ukrainian War thread in the interests of staying on-topic. ;)

Azor
05-10-2017, 02:32 AM
By Lina Khatib: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/putin-s-safe-zones-syria-are-nothing-kind


Although the agreement on the establishment of ‘de-escalation areas’ in Syria, signed by Russia, Turkey and Iran on 4 May, appears positive at face value, it is unlikely to be a first steps towards peace. The Assad regime and its Russian backers have shown little seriousness about reaching an agreement with the opposition – this agreement seems instead likely to pour fuel on the fire.

Similar agreements have often been used by Russia and the Assad regime to hurt the credibility of the Syrian opposition and of rebel groups, whose continued participation in peace talks while the regime bombardment of civilians goes on makes them appear disconnected from the situation on the ground. And the inclusion of Iran as a ‘guarantor’ caused the Syrian rebel groups participating in the talks to storm out in frustration at its role.

The media have reported on the agreement as being about the establishment of ‘safe zones’, but ‘de-escalation areas’ are not the same thing. Safe zones would not be run by any of the parties participating in the conflict. The de-escalation zones, on the other hand, allow for Russia and Iran to set up checkpoints and observation posts ‘to ensure that the provisions of the ceasefire regime are implemented’.

And although the agreement says that the ‘guarantors’ (Russia, Iran and Turkey) would ‘call upon the conflicting parties to stop using any kinds of weapons in the de-escalation areas’ (thus ignoring that Russia and Iran are themselves two of those conflicting parties), the agreement later says that the guarantors ‘shall undertake all necessary measures to force out of the de-escalation areas the groups of ISIL [ISIS] and Jabhat al-Nusra [now also known as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham], as well as other groups that have not joined the ceasefire regime’.

The inclusion of this clause is important. Visualizing how the de-escalation areas would operate, one can imagine areas encircled by Russian and Iranian (and Turkish) troops, who use their observation posts to monitor the movements of armed groups inside the areas. Russia and Iran would continue to engage in military activity inside those areas under the pretext of forcing out ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.

The increased intermingling of Jabhat al-Nusra with other rebel groups means that those groups will be regarded as legitimate targets for Russia and Iran under the signed agreement. This might in turn push rebel groups to engage in military confrontation with Nusra.

These scenarios can then be used by Russia and Iran to argue that it is not possible to ‘deliver humanitarian assistance’ or ‘ensure the movement of unarmed civilians in the areas’, as the agreement postulates, putting the burden squarely on the rebel groups. This would be especially the case in the Idlib governorate, which has a high concentration of rebel groups and a presence of Nusra fighters.

Idlib is also where Iran-backed militias have comparatively less access than other areas mentioned in the agreement, namely the region north of Homs, eastern Ghouta and southern Syria. The plan to establish a de-escalation area in Idlib could therefore be a way for Iran to infiltrate this region ‘legitimately’.

The agreement’s timing also comes after a change of stance by Russia towards local councils in Syria, as Russia included a role for the local councils in a draft constitution for Syria that it presented in a previous round of talks in Astana. The likely explanation for this change is that Russia is hoping to absorb the local councils into the Syrian state under the auspices of a settlement agreement. Since local councils operate in some of the regions listed in the agreement on de-escalation areas, Russia’s plan seems to be to use the de-escalation areas as the first step towards neutralizing the local councils.

None of these outcomes would have the effect of de-escalating the conflict. Instead, they would continue a well-worn strategy to use agreements as a pretext for advancing the interests of the Assad regime and its backers. Don’t be fooled.

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 03:45 AM
RE: Russian Ceasefires

The problem is more than merely one of the Russians violating their own ceasefires. Their reliance upon disparate state and non-state actors as force multipliers – from allies of convenience such as Iran and the remnant of Syria, to local criminals, mercenaries and insurgents – has enabled Russia to project power, but at the expense of central control. Indeed, the approach that Moscow takes to expand and deepen its rule in Chechnya, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas, is the same approach that Putin uses to hold onto power in the Kremlin. The ceasefire violations at Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo were ordered directly from the Kremlin, which held escalation dominance over Ukraine. However, Moscow cannot fully control the insurgents in Donbas, let alone Teheran or Damascus, who have more skin in the game in Syria.

The issue with the “ceasefires” in Syria is less one of Russia violating them and more one of Syria and Iran ignoring them. Russian-sponsored ceasefires in Syria are about as impactful as the UN’s mediation efforts. Note that Russia appeared genuinely taken aback by the Sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun, and has not challenged Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria with Russian forces in the vicinity.

The discussions in Astana only serve to make Moscow appear more indispensable to peace in Syria than it actually is, and to regain the public relations initiative after the TLAM strike on Shayrat.

RE: Turkey and the “Safe Zones”

This is a signal of displeasure with the CJTF-OIR providing CAS to YPG forces, and to possibly help Ankara target the YPG more freely. Ankara worries that a conflict between the TAF/FSA with the YPG will lead to U.S. interference, as exemplified by the Marines attempting to establish a buffer between the YPG and the TAF/FSA.



Stay on topic please. There are numerous other soapbox threads for you.



According to U.S. sources, the SDF is comprised of 30% to 45% Arab fighters. Any ideas as to the demographics of the SDF?

Are you claiming that the YPG is comprised of 90% Turkish Kurds?



I have seen Kurds up to no good myself, but that does not mean that the Kurds in Turkey should have no self-determination.

The Turks have oppressed the Kurds for five centuries. This oppression includes Turkish ethnic supremacism, endemic corruption, authoritarian rule and disrespect for human rights in general. In particular, Turkey has used paramilitaries against the Kurds in a campaign of state terrorism. These Turkish paramilitaries are not dissimilar to the Loyalist/Unionist paramilitaries of Northern Ireland: they have overlapping memberships with the security services, they engage in narcotics trafficking, extortion and other crimes and they carry out extrajudicial killings, and they are protected by the state from prosecution.

As for the incident in Hanover, what exactly are you referring to? Can you be sure that it was the PKK as opposed to non-PKK Kurds in Germany?



I will reply on the Russo-Ukrainian War thread in the interests of staying on-topic. ;)

It is a farce to openly state here that Russia cannot control it´s own allies....stop fuel for armoured vehicles and stop ammo runs into eastern Ukraine and stop paying the mercenaries and see how fast they adhere to agreements...stop the air strikes and see just how far Assad and or Iranian mercenaries move on the ground.

According to US sources...if CrowBat has shown you anything here...the so called US CENTCOM statements carry no weight whatsoever....

If you saw the posted photos of SOF with so called SDF Kurds they were top PKK leaders.....the use of percentages can prove anything at anytime and anywhere.

BTW the US has repeatedly lied to Turkey when it comes to what SDF will do...remember the US stated they would pull out of Manbij...

Lastly...if you do not understand that right now what Russia does in the Ukraine...in Syria ...meddling and participating in US elections and Trump collusion with Russia IT IS ALL intertwined under the mantra...non linear warfare.

So if you do not think that the FBI was closing in on Trump and his advisors for their Russian collusion...THEN explain the firing of the FBI Director who has THREE ongoing Grand Juries...

The killing on the streets of Hannover was conducted and carried out by PKK Kurds from northern Syria....one of a number of incidents that caused Germany to outlaw the organization before the US named them a terrorist org....

IF you think the firing of the FBI Director will not impact directly US FP over the next six months or even longer then you have no understanding of internal US politics.

Trump will be firing tweets around each corner now as the demands of a special prosecutor will become reality and he will be dead in the water as was Nixon was ...FP will take second position.

So if you think that this is off topic then you do not understand just how US FP is driven.

IF you truly think the title of Trump's firing letter....."Restoring Public Trust in the FBI" is correct and accurate then you really do have a serious problem.

And if you think that single letter will not disrupt badly US FP anywhere in the world you are wrong as well..many world leaders fully understand the role of rule of law and when they met Trump at say G20 meetings do you think they will be trusting Trump...not for a moment.

Example..this morning German news media coverage clearly is stating there is a connection between the firing and the FBI Investigation into Trump and his advisors...

AND I am on topic BTW....because I believe US internal politics drives US external politics....do not think for a single moment the shout of "coverup" will accompany anything he does.....

BTW...if you listened to Trump's spokesperson yesterday....

1. US is going to arm the Arab elements of SDF as it is the only one that can take Raqqa...notice I posted this two days ago...AND notice the Trump WH did not specify just how many Arab fighters this was going to be....

2. he then stated the US is committed to having YPG occupied Arab areas returned to Arabs......

NOTE.....not a single PKK/YPG village taken that is in fact Arab...HAS EVER returned to their Arab residents...BTW AI and HRW have verified that PKK/YPG has in fact conducted ethnic cleansing in those villages and even then destroyed them.....

So tell me the US is not lying to the face of Turkey and Turkey fully knows this....and then do not be surprised to see more and more FSA/YPG clashes

ALSO even after the high level Turkish military visit to Mattis to show them the Turkish plan to take Raqqa....Trump WH is still going with SDF/YPG/PKK

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 04:56 AM
It is a farce to openly state here that Russia cannot control it´s own allies....stop fuel for armoured vehicles and stop ammo runs into eastern Ukraine and stop paying the mercenaries and see how fast they adhere to agreements...stop the air strikes and see just how far Assad and or Iranian mercenaries move on the ground.

According to US sources...if CrowBat has shown you anything here...the so called US CENTCOM statements carry no weight whatsoever....

If you saw the posted photos of SOF with so called SDF Kurds they were top PKK leaders.....the use of percentages can prove anything at anytime and anywhere.

BTW the US has repeatedly lied to Turkey when it comes to what SDF will do...remember the US stated they would pull out of Manbij...

Lastly...if you do not understand that right now what Russia does in the Ukraine...in Syria ...meddling and participating in US elections and Trump collusion with Russia IT IS ALL intertwined under the mantra...non linear warfare.

So if you do not think that the FBI was closing in on Trump and his advisors for their Russian collusion...THEN explain the firing of the FBI Director who has THREE ongoing Grand Juries...

The killing on the streets of Hannover was conducted and carried out by PKK Kurds from northern Syria....one of a number of incidents that caused Germany to outlaw the organization before the US named them a terrorist org....

IF you think the firing of the FBI Director will not impact directly US FP over the next six months or even longer then you have no understanding of internal US politics.

Trump will be firing tweets around each corner now as the demands of a special prosecutor will become reality and he will be dead in the water as was Nixon was ...FP will take second position.

So if you think that this is off topic then you do not understand just how US FP is driven.

IF you truly think the title of Trump's firing letter....."Restoring Public Trust in the FBI" is correct and accurate then you really do have a serious problem.

And if you think that single letter will not disrupt badly US FP anywhere in the world you are wrong as well..many world leaders fully understand the role of rule of law and when they met Trump at say G20 meetings do you think they will be trusting Trump...not for a moment.

Example..this morning German news media coverage clearly is stating there is a connection between the firing and the FBI Investigation into Trump and his advisors...

AND I am on topic BTW....because I believe US internal politics drives US external politics....do not think for a single moment the shout of "coverup" will accompany anything he does.....

BTW...if you listened to Trump's spokesperson yesterday....

1. US is going to arm the Arab elements of SDF as it is the only one that can take Raqqa...notice I posted this two days ago...AND notice the Trump WH did not specify just how many Arab fighters this was going to be....

2. he then stated the US is committed to having YPG occupied Arab areas returned to Arabs......

NOTE.....not a single PKK/YPG village taken that is in fact Arab...HAS EVER returned to their Arab residents...BTW AI and HRW have verified that PKK/YPG has in fact conducted ethnic cleansing in those villages and even then destroyed them.....

So tell me the US is not lying to the face of Turkey and Turkey fully knows this....and then do not be surprised to see more and more FSA/YPG clashes

ALSO even after the high level Turkish military visit to Mattis to show them the Turkish plan to take Raqqa....Trump WH is still going with SDF/YPG/PKK

So this is not going to impact any US FP moves over the next months??


The optics of firing the FBI director investigating your Russia ties then meeting the Russian FM on THE VERY NEXT DAY defy easy description.

Just in: Senate Intel Com sent lengthy letter to Treasury requesting detailed financial info on transactions of Trump, family, & assoc.

A source with knowledge of the investigation says that nine sealed indictments came down in one case with sixteen more expected in others.

SO was this move to fire and then meet Larvor an attempt to signal Putin that he is back into fully supporting all Russian moves in Syria and Ukraine....think so.....

CrowBat
05-10-2017, 05:35 AM
RE: Russian Ceasefires

The problem is more than merely one of the Russians violating their own ceasefires. Their reliance upon disparate state and non-state actors as force multipliers – from allies of convenience such as Iran and the remnant of Syria, to local criminals, mercenaries and insurgents – has enabled Russia to project power, but at the expense of central control.Well, at least in Syria they're trying to avoid this problem - by insistently cooperating with the regime and forcing all the warlords to subject themselves to the central command.

The result of this insistence is the currently-ongoing process of 're-vamping' of the 'SAA', i.e. this 'V Corps': this is now a conglomerate of militias that received official designations (like 1st Brigade, 79th Battalion etc.) and are operating under a centralized command. Similarly, whatever was left of different 'Alawites-only' militias of the IV Assault Corps is concentrated within the newly-established 30th Division Republican Guards, etc.

How successful this effort might get is left to be seen, then so far only a small part of all the different militias were put under the centralized command in this way - but, one can't say they're not trying.


The issue with the “ceasefires” in Syria is less one of Russia violating them and more one of Syria and Iran ignoring them.Experiences from Syria have shown that cease-fires negotiated by the IRGC were the ones working the best. Those negotiated by Assadists and Hezbollah/Lebanon were always entirely pointless.

In this case, Iran was involved, so no reason to expect the IRGC to ignore the cease-fire. That this is going to exploit this opportunity to regroup, recuperate and prepare for further operations, is beyond any doubt. But, the same can be expected from any other side too.



Russian-sponsored ceasefires in Syria are about as impactful as the UN’s mediation efforts.UN mediation efforts are less worth than cease-fires negotiated with Assadists...


Note that Russia appeared genuinely taken aback by the Sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun...Not the least. They knew exactly what was Assad about to do, but - and contrary to the US intel - didn't know that the order was issued. Apparent reason for this is that the Assadists are using communication links of the Ba'ath Party HQ in Damascus - instead of regular military channels - to issue such orders. I consider myself as in possession of strong, even if circumstantial evidence that the NSA has meanwhile learned to monitor the Ba'ath Party's communications - in addition to military traffic - while the Russians didn't.


...and has not challenged Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria with Russian forces in the vicinity.The Russians have absolutely no air defence assets in Damascus area (at most they're happy if the GRU can keep Bashar safe from Maher and his clique) and thus can't do anything at all there.


According to U.S. sources, the SDF is comprised of 30% to 45% Arab fighters. Any ideas as to the demographics of the SDF?That's according to the CENTCOM - and, so I'm sure, utter PRBS.

The YPG's military strength was estimated at 50,000 already back in late 2015. There is no way the SDF's 'Arab element' has recruited as many fighters ever since - and that for multiple reasons. Firstly, Arabs in NE Syria are more afraid of the PKK than of the Daesh; secondly, for a force supposedly consisting of up to between 30-45% of Arab combatants, the SDF remains completely controlled by the PKK (yes, by 6 PKK-commanders, and just 1 one Arab/FSyA representative); and, thirdly, the YPG has meanwhile attacked and disarmed a number of Free Syrian Army units that joined the SDF (in addition to some of KNC's militias).


Are you claiming that the YPG is comprised of 90% Turkish Kurds?I'm not Outlaw, but I 'claim' that at least 50%, and probably up to 60% of the YPG is comprised of Turkish Kurds, which is no surprise considering the YPG is - just like the PYD - a result of PKK's transfer to Syria.

Reason for this conclusion: rate of non-Syrian casualties of the YPG. Turkish citizens are continuously making out between 50% and 60% of YPG's KIAs.


I have seen Kurds up to no good myself, but that does not mean that the Kurds in Turkey should have no self-determination.No problem with that: everybody's got the right to self-determination - so also Kurds in Turkey.

'Problem' is the fact that the USA and the PKK/PYD/YPG are continuously acting as if the PKK would be the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Turkey, and as if the PKK/PYD/YPG is the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Syria. That, however, is BS.

Not only that the PKK was never 'elected' by anybody into any kind of a position, but - and foremost - there are dozens of other Kurdish parties (few inside Turkey, at least 13-14 inside Syria), which are no PKK/PYD/YPG, but against it.

With other words, and as already emphasised: Kurds of Turkey and Syria are not united; but, they are presented to the US public as such, and then on behalf of a Marxist terrorist organization that's assassinating, arresting, detaining and ethnically cleansing anybody who disagrees with it.


The Turks have oppressed the Kurds for five centuries.If you want to count centuries, then this period is at least twice as long.


This oppression includes Turkish ethnic supremacism, endemic corruption, authoritarian rule and disrespect for human rights in general.Erm... majority of Kurds in Turkey and Syria live in rural areas, and are as religious (actually, in this regards Kurds are even slightly more religious and bigotic than average Turks), as backwards, as dogmatic, and as patriarchal as their Turkish neighbours. Every single Kurd I happened to meet in my life so far, was at least three times more supremacist and authoritarian than most of Turks I've met so far - combined (and mind: most of Turks I met so far are from the area along the Black Sea, usually described as the 'poorest' and 'most primitive' part of Turkey by nearly everybody I know).

Whatever... matter of fact is that both Turks and Kurds have their secular side too. Right now it's primarily due to Erdogan and the US-propping of the PKK that the later appears to be doing better.

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 08:07 AM
Azor...this in needed as you tend to ignore the intertwining of non linear warfare used by Russia to drive it's political war against it's perceived main rival the neo liberal US...this article is almost 3 yrs old....

So what you view as being on a soapbox is actually attempting to get you to see that all is in fact intertwined....Georgia....Moldaiva....Crimea.....e astern Ukraine....countless Russian GRU/FSB global hacking attacks....Syria....influence and propaganda operations against just about the entire West...AND definitely involved in the US elections and tied into the Trump WH to include Trump himself...

We always need to drop back and review/reread really what is meant by the Russian term non linear warfare.

I like this particular analyst when it comes to Russia and it's intentions....and who has recently published probably one of the best studies on Russian gangs in Europe...

https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-non-linear-war/


Military-Industrial Kurier, February 27, 2013
(My comments are indented and italicised and in red, and the bold emphases are also mine)

THE VALUE OF SCIENCE IN PREDICTION
General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation
In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template.
The experience of military conflicts — including those connected with the so-called coloured revolutions in north Africa and the Middle East — confirm that a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.
There is an old Soviet-era rhetorical device that a ‘warning’ or a ‘lesson’ from some other situation is used to outline intent and plan. The way that what purports to be an after-action take on the Arab Spring so closely maps across to what was done in Ukraine is striking. Presenting the Arab Spring–wrongly–as the results of covert Western operations allows Gerasimov the freedom to talk about what he wants to talk about: how Russia can subvert and destroy states without direct, overt and large-scale military intervention.
The Lessons of the ‘Arab Spring’
Of course, it would be easiest of all to say that the events of the “Arab Spring” are not war and so there are no lessons for us — military men — to learn. But maybe the opposite is true — that precisely these events are typical of warfare in the 21st century.
In terms of the scale of the casualties and destruction, the catastrophic social, economic, and political consequences, such new-type conflicts are comparable with the consequences of any real war.
The very “rules of war” have changed. The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness.
For me, this is probably the most important line in the whole piece, so allow me to repeat it:#The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness. In other words, this is an explicit recognition not only that all conflicts are actually means to political ends–the actual forces used are irrelevant–but that in the modern realities, Russia must look to non-military instruments increasingly.
The focus of applied methods of conflict has altered in the direction of the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other nonmilitary measures — applied in coordination with the protest potential of the population.
All this is supplemented by military means of a concealed character, including carrying out actions of informational conflict and the actions of special-operations forces. The open use of forces — often under the guise of peacekeeping and crisis regulation — is resorted to only at a certain stage, primarily for the achievement of final success in the conflict.
This is, after all, exactly what happened in Crimea, when the insignia-less “little green men” were duly unmasked as–surprise, surprise–Russian special forces and Naval Infantry only once the annexation was actually done.
From this proceed logical questions: What is modern war? What should the army be prepared for? How should it be armed? Only after answering these questions can we determine the directions of the construction and development of the armed forces over the long term. To do this, it is essential to have a clear understanding of the forms and methods of the use of the application of force.
What Gerasimov is signalling here, and it may prove an important point, is that the Russian military needs to be tooled appropriately. This may mean a re-opening of the traditional hostilities with the politically more powerful defence industries (that want to pump out more tanks and the other things they produce) over quite what kind of kit the military gets. When former defence minister Serdyukov announced a moratorium on buying new tanks, Putin slapped him down and restated the order. Shoigu and Gerasimov will have to be more savvy if they want to make progress on this one.
These days, together with traditional devices, nonstandard ones are being developed. The role of mobile, mixed-type groups of forces, acting in a single intelligence-information space because of the use of the new possibilities of command-and-control systems has been strengthened. Military actions are becoming more dynamic, active, and fruitful. Tactical and operational pauses that the enemy could exploit are disappearing. New information technologies have enabled significant reductions in the spatial, temporal, and informational gaps between forces and control organs. Frontal engagements of large formations of forces at the strategic and operational level are gradually becoming a thing of the past. Long-distance, contactless actions against the enemy are becoming the main means of achieving combat and operational goals. The defeat of the enemy’s objects is conducted throughout the entire depth of his territory. The differences between strategic, operational, and tactical levels, as well as between offensive and defensive operations, are being erased. The application of high-precision weaponry is taking on a mass character. Weapons based on new physical principals and automatized systems are being actively incorporated into military activity.
All worthy enough, but in fairness nothing we haven’t heard before.
Asymmetrical actions have come into widespread use, enabling the nullification of an enemy’s advantages in armed conflict. Among such actions are the use of special-operations forces and internal opposition to create a permanently operating front through the entire territory of the enemy state, as well as informational actions, devices, and means that are constantly being perfected.
This, on the other hand, does show something of a different nuance, with the renewed emphasis on “internal opposition”, something which harkens back to Soviet-era playbooks rather than post-Soviet military doctrine, which was largely cleared of such language except in some specific contexts such as counter-insurgency.
These ongoing changes are reflected in the doctrinal views of the world’s leading states and are being used in military conflicts.
Already in 1991, during Operation Desert Storm in Iraq, the U.S. military realized the concept of “global sweep, global power” and “air-ground operations.” In 2003 during Operation Iraqi Freedom, military operations were conducted in accordance with the so-called Single Perspective 2020.
Now, the concepts of “global strike” and “global missile defense” have been worked out, which foresee the defeat of enemy objects and forces in a matter of hours from almost any point on the globe, while at the same time ensuring the prevention of unacceptable harm from an enemy counterstrike. The United States is also enacting the principles of the doctrine of global integration of operations aimed at creating in a very short time highly mobile, mixed-type groups of forces.
In recent conflicts, new means of conducting military operations have appeared that cannot be considered purely military. An example of this is the operation in Libya, where a no-fly zone was created, a sea blockade imposed, private military contractors were widely used in close interaction with armed formations of the opposition.
Yes, these were all used in Libya, but whether they were that new is open to question. The key point for Gerasimov, I believe, is that actions such as the no-fly zone that were presented as (and have traditionally been) the preserve of humanitarian interventions were really used to favour one side in the conflict, the rebels. Combined with the use of mercenaries to support them, this makes Libya a convenient synecdoche for the kinds of operations the Russians are really contemplating, in which the mask of humanitarian intervention and peacekeeping can shield aggressive actions.
We must acknowledge that, while we understand the essence of traditional military actions carried out by regular armed forces, we have only a superficial understanding of asymmetrical forms and means. In this connection, the importance of military science — which must create a comprehensive theory of such actions — is growing. The work and research of the Academy of Military Science can help with this.
The Tasks of Military Science
In the main, I will comment less on this section, because often it really doesn’t connect so clearly with the first half. However, taken together it is worth noting that it presents a pretty scathing picture of modern Russian military thinking.

Continued....

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 08:17 AM
This ties directly into the above posted article.....another example of non linear warfare being generated in Latin American an area that the US has largely been absent from due to a lack of political and military bandwidth....

BTW Azor this goes back to a comment posted on a small Russian GRU/Spetsnaz company participating in a LA military exercise that I noted did in fact project Russian power abroad......where again you questioned my response.....

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/gerasimov-doctrine


How is the increased Russian involvement contributing to crime and instability in Latin America?# Who is driving this, and how does it affect the U.S.?

In every case of significant Russian expansion, the governmental presence is accompanied by a strong criminal presence. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper noted in his Congressional testimony, Russia, a “threat actor”, is an example of a nation where “the nexus among organized crime, state actors, and business blurs the distinction between state policy and private gain.” This nexus is used to further the goals of the Russian state without the state being visible, as well as provide significant revenues to criminal groups that also have deep ties into the Russian state establishment, both civilian and military.
The use of Russian organized crime as an instrument of state policy is not new, but it has served and will continue to serve as an important way to strengthening Latin American Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs), further crippling weak states and undermining the rule of law. That, in turn, will weaken U.S. goals and allies in the region. This is a fundamental instrument in propping up radical populist governments, like those in the ALBA alliance, as well as criminal groups, as the ALBA bloc uses TCOs as instruments of state power.

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 10:05 AM
FSA battle against #IslamicState in Yarmouk area in southern #Syria
#IS here without fear of any airstrikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFsX3jWnI6A#

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 10:28 AM
Kremlin using Syrian "safe zones" to normalize relations with US. Diplomats have just hashed out details in Vienna.
https://rg.ru/2017/05/10/segodnia-glava-mid-rossii-vstretitsia-s-prezidentom-ssha.html#

Not confirmed by anyone else other than Russians...

CrowBat
05-10-2017, 04:45 PM
...and whoever might come to the idea to investigate the PKK - and Pentagon's relations to it - is almost certainly going to get fired too.

BTW, here a nice collage of PKK's turncoats over the time (https://i.redd.it/59ds3oc7apwy.jpg).

Azor
05-10-2017, 06:58 PM
Well, at least in Syria they're trying to avoid this problem - by insistently cooperating with the regime and forcing all the warlords to subject themselves to the central command...How successful this effort might get is left to be seen, then so far only a small part of all the different militias were put under the centralized command in this way - but, one can't say they're not trying.

Well, the Russians had ample experience in complex cooperation from Chechnya, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine, prior to embarking on their Syrian adventure. Success or no with the Syrians, I do not believe that Russians control the Iranians, who have their own relationship dynamics with their auxiliaries.


Experiences from Syria have shown that cease-fires negotiated by the IRGC were the ones working the best. Those negotiated by Assadists and Hezbollah/Lebanon were always entirely pointless.

In this case, Iran was involved, so no reason to expect the IRGC to ignore the cease-fire. That this is going to exploit this opportunity to regroup, recuperate and prepare for further operations, is beyond any doubt. But, the same can be expected from any other side too.

I am not aware of prior ceasefires driven by the Pasdaran, but I would take it as a matter of faith that Iran calls the shots in terms of abiding by or ignoring ceasefires.


Not the least. They knew exactly what was Assad about to do, but - and contrary to the US intel - didn't know that the order was issued. Apparent reason for this is that the Assadists are using communication links of the Ba'ath Party HQ in Damascus - instead of regular military channels - to issue such orders. I consider myself as in possession of strong, even if circumstantial evidence that the NSA has meanwhile learned to monitor the Ba'ath Party's communications - in addition to military traffic - while the Russians didn't.

I don’t follow you here. How does intercepting the order or not make a difference to Russia knowing that Assad would launch a Sarin strike? How do you explain the discombobulated Russian reactions to the Sarin attack and the subsequent TLAM reply?


The Russians have absolutely no air defence assets in Damascus area (at most they're happy if the GRU can keep Bashar safe from Maher and his clique) and thus can't do anything at all there.

Capability vs. intent again. The Russians have made no effort to deter or prevent Israeli airstrikes, correct? This despite the possibility of Russian servicemen being killed or injured in such attacks, in addition to the seeming loss of prestige.


The YPG's military strength was estimated at 50,000 already back in late 2015. There is no way the SDF's 'Arab element' has recruited as many fighters ever since - and that for multiple reasons. Firstly, Arabs in NE Syria are more afraid of the PKK than of the Daesh; secondly, for a force supposedly consisting of up to between 30-45% of Arab combatants, the SDF remains completely controlled by the PKK (yes, by 6 PKK-commanders, and just 1 one Arab/FSyA representative); and, thirdly, the YPG has meanwhile attacked and disarmed a number of Free Syrian Army units that joined the SDF (in addition to some of KNC's militias).

I'm not Outlaw, but I 'claim' that at least 50%, and probably up to 60% of the YPG is comprised of Turkish Kurds, which is no surprise considering the YPG is - just like the PYD - a result of PKK's transfer to Syria.

Reason for this conclusion: rate of non-Syrian casualties of the YPG. Turkish citizens are continuously making out between 50% and 60% of YPG's KIAs.

Thanks for these details. Were the Turkish Kurds who joined the YPG directly from Turkey, or were they PKK exiles from Iraq? Did current or ex-YPG members participate in the recent armed uprising in southeastern Turkey?


'Problem' is the fact that the USA and the PKK/PYD/YPG are continuously acting as if the PKK would be the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Turkey, and as if the PKK/PYD/YPG is the sole, legal representative for all the Kurds in Syria. That, however, is BS. Not only that the PKK was never 'elected' by anybody into any kind of a position, but - and foremost - there are dozens of other Kurdish parties (few inside Turkey, at least 13-14 inside Syria), which are no PKK/PYD/YPG, but against it.
With other words, and as already emphasised: Kurds of Turkey and Syria are not united; but, they are presented to the US public as such, and then on behalf of a Marxist terrorist organization that's assassinating, arresting, detaining and ethnically cleansing anybody who disagrees with it.

Yet Turkey bears a great deal of blame for the very prominence of the PKK. The suppression of moderate opposition tends to support the formation of ideologically disciplined and extreme opposition (e.g. OUN/UIA, Black Power, PIRA, ETA, FLN, VM).

Are there any quiet or covert efforts to rein in the PKK and PYD?

See here from the European Center for Kurdish Studies (http://www.kurdwatch.org/pdf/KurdWatch_A011_en_TallAbyad.pdf) as of January 2016:


No Arab or Turkmen interview partners reported of ethnically motivated mass expulsions from Tall Abyad and the surrounding areas. In fact, we can assume that there have been no large-scale ethnically motivated expulsions in the region.

For demographic reasons alone a “Kurdification” of the area is out of the question. The proportion of around ten percent Kurds is simply too low. At the same time, regulations such as only Kurds from Tall Abyad can act as a guarantor for refugees so that they can return to Tall Abyad from Turkey clearly discriminate on the basis of ethnicity.

Furthermore, the absence of targeted ethnic expulsions does not mean that grave human-rights violations are not being committed. It is clearly not about isolated cases or as Marwan, an interview partner from Tall Abyad supposes, “personal conflicts” between a few YPG commanders from Tall Abyad and their Arab neighbors. Rather our interviews point to the fact that the PYD and its People’s Defense Units resort to exactly the mechanisms of repression that they already successfully used in the Kurdish areas. These include:


the targeted kidnapping of political opponents, particularly activists critical of the regime (in the Kurdish areas this includes the members of competing Kurdish parties);

the prevention of the entry or the return of critics;

cooperation with groups and individuals close to the regime;

the deployment of personnel in sensitive positions be it as head interrogator or, as in the Kurdish areas, as judges) whose only qualification is loyalty to the PYD;

the creation of institutions that seemingly represent the population but in fact only integrate groups or people who are subordinate to the PYD;

the preservation of all power and decision-making authority inside the PYD and its People’s Defense Units and thus the PKK;

the accusation that people are having close ties to the IS or are cooperating with the IS as a sweeping justification for repressive measures.


Having noted this, I can understand why the PKK's militancy, organization and ideological unity are useful traits for the anti-Daesh Coalition. Of course, this means that the Americans are in fact quite cynical; as much as the PKK and the Turks themselves.


…majority of Kurds in Turkey and Syria live in rural areas, and are as religious (actually, in this regards Kurds are even slightly more religious and bigotic [sic] than average Turks), as backwards, as dogmatic, and as patriarchal as their Turkish neighbors. Every single Kurd I happened to meet in my life so far, was at least three times more supremacist and authoritarian than most of Turks I've met so far…

I’m afraid that collective attitudes aside, the oppression in Turkey is effectively unidirectional. After a flirtation with democracy, Turkey is returning to authoritarian rule, albeit by civilian Islamists rather than military secularists. Regardless, the state remains a Turkish supremacist one and the policies of Turkification will no doubt intensify as Erdogan grapples with unfavorable demographic trends and dissidents from all ethnic and religious groups.

Azor
05-10-2017, 11:10 PM
It is a farce to openly state here that Russia cannot control it´s [sic] own allies...stop fuel for armoured vehicles and stop ammo runs into eastern Ukraine and stop paying the mercenaries and see how fast they adhere to agreements...stop the air strikes and see just how far Assad and or Iranian mercenaries move on the ground.

Then Moscow risks losing leverage over them. Beijing is faced with a similar dilemma with regard to Pyongyang. Look at what happens when the "Armed Forces of Novorossiya" are ignored as Putin attends to other more pressing concerns...


Lastly...if you do not understand that right now what Russia does in the Ukraine...in Syria ...meddling and participating in US elections and Trump collusion with Russia IT IS ALL intertwined under the mantra...non linear warfare. So if you do not think that the FBI was closing in on Trump and his advisors for their Russian collusion...THEN explain the firing of the FBI Director who has THREE ongoing Grand Juries...

Agreed. This dastardly plot is being directed by Stalin, whose brain is alive and well in a machine interface within Mount Yamantau.

But I thought that Comey was part of the “vast right-wing conspiracy” against Hillary that has existed since at least 1996, originated in Arkansas, and has come to include Comey and Putin? Why would Trump terminate his employment, and risk Comey revealing the conspiracy that Hillary warned us about decades ago?

Not engaging here. Feel free to use your EurRail pass to visit Hyde Park…


The killing on the streets of Hannover was conducted and carried out by PKK Kurds from northern Syria...one of a number of incidents that caused Germany to outlaw the organization before the US named them a terrorist org...

Source for this particular incident? Of the list of terrorist attacks in West Germany and reunified Germany, I have not seen a single incident attributed to the PKK, although ethnic Turks in Germany have been killed by racist and ethnic German terrorists.

Germany inherited the Turkish-Kurdish conflict due to its immigration policies. The PKK uses Germany as a base, but so does the MIT, which has developed an illegal network of 6,000 informers in Germany or roughly half the number of estimated PKK members residing there. This brazen intelligence activity on German soil puts the NSA's snooping in perspective...


AND I am on topic BTW....because I believe US internal politics drives US external politics....do not think for a single moment the shout of "coverup" will accompany anything he does...

U.S. foreign policy has little to do with the Syrian Civil War. Russian, Lebanese, Iraqi, Iranian, Turkish and finally Syrian internal politics, would be more relevant.

CrowBat
05-10-2017, 11:27 PM
...I do not believe that Russians control the Iranians, who have their own relationship dynamics with their auxiliaries.In Syria, the Russians are meanwhile working against Iranian interests, and this at the time the Assad-Regime is still providing the IRGC with the right to do whatever it wants to do. Thus, the chaos is actually increasing, despite Russian efforts to create a new military for the regime.


I am not aware of prior ceasefires driven by the Pasdaran...All the cease-fires with various besieged pockets (like Darayya, Madaya, meanwhile largely emptied through 'reconciliation' and 'evacuations') reached since 2013 were made by the IRGC - and violated by Assadists and Hezbollah/Lebanon.


I don’t follow you here. How does intercepting the order or not make a difference to Russia knowing that Assad would launch a Sarin strike? How do you explain the discombobulated Russian reactions to the Sarin attack and the subsequent TLAM reply?It's an example for how much the USA know that the Russians don't know, which in turn is an explanation for Moscow's botched-up reaction.


Capability vs. intent again.Not the least. The Russian intention is to protect their bases (Hmemmem, where the SA-21s and SA-22s are based, and the area between Kweres and as-Safira, where their SA-10 and SA-17 are). The've got no own SAMs further south, nor any kind of control over Assadists air defences there. Therefore, it is neither within their intentions, nor within their capabilities to to 'prevent Israeli air strikes'.

That aside, only GRU and one Army battalion are based in Damascus and these are deployed around the Presidential Palace. Since Israelis are never striking the same (why should they?), nor are they ever striking few bases 50-60km south of the capital, where additional GRU operators are based, there is absolutely no danger for any kind of Russian servicemen getting killed.


Thanks for these details. Were the Turkish Kurds who joined the YPG directly from Turkey, or were they PKK exiles from Iraq?They are Turkish citizens and members of the PKK - and they didn't 'join' the YPG, but established it.


Did current or ex-YPG members participate in the recent armed uprising in southeastern Turkey?...I'm surprised by such questions... Don't you know that terrorists in command of the 'PYD/YPG', and thus 'commanders' that are directly cooperating with US forces - like Sahin Cilo, just for example - are either members of Ocalan's family or his close aides since decades?

After all, I've posted Cilo's photo showing him with a US SF-operator just about a week ago...


Yet Turkey bears a great deal of blame for the very prominence of the PKK.Yeah: it was Turkey - and not the former USSR and Assadist Syria - that has established the PKK, right?

And why care about Turkish towns and villages taken over by the PKK and turned into military fortresses?

Even less so should we care about nearly all of northern Syria being surrendered by the leading NATO member to a terrorist organization fighting a NATO member for the last 30 years...

This all doesn't matter - because PYD/YPG are the gods of war, the future of the world, and the last hope of the mankind too, right, Azor...?


Are there any quiet or covert efforts to rein in the PKK and PYD?'Rein'...? How do you rein the PKK out of the PYD, if the PYD is the PKK...?

As next you can try to rein water out of water...


Having noted this, I can understand why the PKK's militancy, organization and ideological unity are useful traits for the anti-Daesh Coalition. Of course, this means that the Americans are in fact quite cynical...'Cynical'...? Rather 'BS-itting again' - just like back in 1947-1948, then in 1954, in 1958, in 1963-1965, in 1967, in 1970, in 1973, in 1979, in 1983, in 1991, in 2003 and ever since etc.


I’m afraid that collective attitudes aside, the oppression in Turkey is effectively unidirectional. After a flirtation with democracy, Turkey is returning to authoritarian rule, albeit by civilian Islamists rather than military secularists. Regardless, the state remains a Turkish supremacist one ...Sigh... Replace 'Islam' in Erdogan's vocabulary with 'Christianity' - and he sounds exactly like most of Congressmen and Senators of the Republican Party in the USA.

CrowBat
05-11-2017, 05:35 AM
Jordan shot down an UAV that entered its airspace from Syria (https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/862394260682928132) - and here evidence of Hezbollah (or the IRGC) operating UAVs over Jordan (https://twitter.com/C_Military1/status/862368991460962304).

This is actually a surprise: after all, Assadists are new best friends of the Jordanian 'king'...

OUTLAW 09
05-11-2017, 06:13 AM
Jordan shot down an UAV that entered its airspace from Syria (https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/862394260682928132) - and here evidence of Hezbollah (or the IRGC) operating UAVs over Jordan (https://twitter.com/C_Military1/status/862368991460962304).

This is actually a surprise: after all, Assadists are new best friends of the Jordanian 'king'...

It is interesting in that there was a recent article in German that indicated that the Sunni nation states are now reconsidering their stance towards Israel in the face of what they now perceive to be their biggest single threat...Iranian expansionism sanctioned largely by the Iran Deal and Obama....

davidbfpo
05-11-2017, 07:17 AM
This thread is about the Syrian Civil War in 2017, not the present situation in the administration of President Trump in the USA - however much it may have an effect in Syria (which is debatable). A small number of posts have been moved to a more fitting place, a closed thread on President Trump.

With very few exceptions the theme of such posts does not lead to a debate on the Forum, it is more like a barrage.

Azor
05-11-2017, 05:00 PM
In Syria, the Russians are meanwhile working against Iranian interests, and this at the time the Assad-Regime is still providing the IRGC with the right to do whatever it wants to do. Thus, the chaos is actually increasing, despite Russian efforts to create a new military for the regime.

So where exactly do Iran and Russia differ over Syria? Where does Damascus differ with Teheran and Moscow?

It seems to me that Moscow is satisfied with the current status quo (i.e. “freezing” the conflict with “peacekeepers” deployed), but that Damascus and Teheran want total victory, with Moscow’s help.


The've got no own SAMs further south, nor any kind of control over Assadists air defences there. Therefore, it is neither within their intentions, nor within their capabilities to to 'prevent Israeli air strikes'.

Yet according to other commentators at SWC, Russia has:


Created A2/AD bubbles that threaten Israel and the Coalition
Armed Lebanese Hezbollah with advanced weapons that also threaten Israel
Been behind the sectarian cleansing of Sunnis to pressure the EU with migrants


;)


Yeah: it was Turkey - and not the former USSR and Assadist Syria - that has established the PKK, right?

So the Kurds were living in a prosperous, secure, liberal and democratic society before the Soviets and Syrians convinced them to turn on their Turkish brethren?


And why care about Turkish towns and villages taken over by the PKK and turned into military fortresses?

How else to respond to marauding soldiers, secret police and paramilitary gangs?


Even less so should we care about nearly all of northern Syria being surrendered by the leading NATO member to a terrorist organization fighting a NATO member for the last 30 years...

There was a time when NATO included more than one dictatorship, out of necessity. Now, Turkey is the one that does not fit with the others.


This all doesn't matter - because PYD/YPG are the gods of war, the future of the world, and the last hope of the mankind too, right, Azor...?

I have never claimed that. I have always said that the Sunni Arab supremacism represented by Daesh and Al Qaeda can only be defeated by Sunni Arabs, and that occupation forces of another ethnicity or sect, be it the Kurds or Shias, will keep the flame of grievance alive.


'Rein'...? How do you rein the PKK out of the PYD, if the PYD is the PKK...? As next you can try to rein water out of water...

I don’t know, which is why I asked. Support the non-PYD factions. Ensure that the YPG only includes Syrian Kurds. But any initiatives would be less than meaningful without a reckoning with the Assad-FSA conflict.


Sigh... Replace 'Islam' in Erdogan's vocabulary with 'Christianity' - and he sounds exactly like most of Congressmen and Senators of the Republican Party in the USA.

It must be nice taking potshots from the Habsburg’s former realm. Which country was it again that ensured the Ivans didn’t overstay their welcome in Vienna again?

You and Outlaw have an interesting habit of delving into the nuances of Arab and Turkish Sunni Islam and Islamism, but are decidedly more judgmental on the subjects of Russia, the Kurds, the Shias and the United States. I find myself wondering whether you both have gone native given your experiences in the Middle East, and if you have personal attachments that prevent objectivity.

Azor
05-11-2017, 05:22 PM
This thread is about the Syrian Civil War in 2017, not the present situation in the administration of President Trump in the USA - however much it may have an effect in Syria (which is debatable). A small number of posts have been moved to a more fitting place, a closed thread on President Trump.

With very few exceptions the theme of such posts does not lead to a debate on the Forum, it is more like a barrage.

On the contrary, and to paraphrase one of the TRADOC science fiction submissions at SWJ, the theme is more like a cannonade.

OUTLAW 09
05-12-2017, 05:37 AM
NOTICE anything Azor.....

Kurdish #YPG took control of #Syria's largest dam.

Controls most of the available Syrian water for drinking and farming....

NOT immediately turned over to the Arab tribes in the area as was indicated would happen when Arab areas were taken under YPG/PKK control....

Supposedly stated by the US government to Turkish government...

ANOTHER failed US promise to Erdogan...and there is to be no coming clash...get real....

The tone coming out of Erdogan in the last two days is starting to signal a clear intent to cross the border into Syria in multiple areas and the comments by major FSA units signals a clear intent to attack YGP/PKK if they get in the way....regardless if US troops are with them or not....

OUTLAW 09
05-12-2017, 06:01 AM
On the contrary, and to paraphrase one of the TRADOC science fiction submissions at SWJ, the theme is more like a cannonade.

If one cannot "see and understand" the intertwining of Russian non linear warfare in direct support to the Russian political war being directed at the West especially the US...then that person has a serious problem in "seeing and understanding" world events.....

If one cannot "see and understand" just how this President is driving US FP into a ditch based on whims, bluffs and simple stupidity then one has a serious problem...he is making the "Wag the Dog" look like a raving success right now.....but it is a total failure....

If one cannot "see and understand" the failures of the Obama WH in the ME especially directed at Sunni's with a full tilt to Iran then there is a serious problem....

If one cannot "see and understand" the now the failure of Trump ME FP because there is simply none..then there is a serious problem....

If one cannot see the coming clash between Turkey, FSA and the YPG/PKK with the US in the middle there is a serious problem.....

We are about two weeks away from that clash...WHY....the Turkish senior military leadership attempted to convince Mattis that they are serious about their taking of Raqqa and failed....

Erdogan is in DC next week to explicitly tell Trump they will take Raqqa and if that fails Turkish media is indicating they will cross in force and all bets are off then....

So sometimes a cannonade is what is needed to get some people to "see and uinderstand "....

PARET of the massive US failure in Iraq was never really seen by many commenters here......

Saddam was on his last legs anyway and some very astute commenters made that point in 20033....the Iraqi ISI was constantly putting down small revolts up through and including shortly before the US invaded...from both Shia and Sunni elements...

There is an interesting political theory that says if the uprising comes from within and it is successful then the self pride generated by the "locals doing the job" tends to carry over and the revolt is in the end successful...

BUT when an outside foreign power especially in the ME does the job for the locals...there is no "self pride" and the intervention ends eventually in failure....

Because the "perception" is and in the ME it is all about "perception" we the locals were simply too dumb/stupid to do it ourselves and we needed a foreign power to tell us what to do....and there is no "pride in their achievements"....

REMEMBER this when looking at Syria....had the US simply provided the FSA with the means and tools to throw out Assad and them remained back and lent support after Assad was thrown out...we truly would not be where we are today...

BUT REMEMBER what the Obama WH "smokescreen" was and it was a "smokescreen" meant to pr4ovide him the reasoning to do nothing....

"We are still trying to find out who the "moderates" are and who we can "vet".....then the next mantra..."we need to seriously vet the moderates to make sure TOWs do not fall into the hands of IS/AQ".....and oh surprise surprise none have ever been transferred to IS/AQ.

Both have been seriously proven to be true "smokescreens".....

WHAT Obama and now Trump do not realize is that IS/AQ are Sunni based...and it must be Sunni's that end the problem not US supported Kurdish PKK....

That is the reasoning behind what Turkey is saying about they taking Raqqa as well as blocking PKK from controlling the entire Turkish border zone.

It is just great that Mattis publicly states the US will defend Turkey BUT you should realize Erdogan fully understands that is a farce of a statement unless it comes straight from Trump's own mouth....

ACTUALLY in the 40 years of PKK attacking Turkey that is in fact what the US has always stated...and still the PKK is not under control is it??

Now you can cut and paste all you want to with this..but it will not disprove what we are seeing right now on the ground in northern Syria....and it will not coverup the current Trump ME FP failure...as well as the total Obama failures....

OUTLAW 09
05-12-2017, 06:11 AM
BTW...confirms many of mine and CrowBat's posted comments.....

Assad forces & #Iran lead Shia militias prepare assault on #FSA held Tanf border crossing at triangle #Syria #Jordan #Iraq

BUT WAIT...I thought that the US was providing direct SOF assistance to these FSA units via the 5th SFGA along with CAS????

This is the perfect example of the interaction of Assad...Iran and Russia..FIRST FSA kicks out IS and controls the area THEN they get directly attacked after clearing IS by Assad...Iran and Russia...which then takes over the area...

AND where is the US in this "game"...MIA......

BUT WAIT...no they then fly CAS for Assad and Iran.....and PKK but not FSA????

CrowBat
05-12-2017, 06:17 AM
So where exactly do Iran and Russia differ over Syria? Where does Damascus differ with Teheran and Moscow?

It seems to me that Moscow is satisfied with the current status quo (i.e. “freezing” the conflict with “peacekeepers” deployed), but that Damascus and Teheran want total victory, with Moscow’s help.Yes, it's something like that, and as explained nearly a year ago at the end of the feature here: Russia, Syria and Iran Have Made a Mess of Their Military Alliance (http://warisboring.com/russia-syria-and-iran-have-made-a-mess-of-their-military-alliance/).


Yet according to other commentators at SWC, Russia has:...Yup, according to other commentators - not according to me.


So the Kurds were living in a prosperous, secure, liberal and democratic society before the Soviets and Syrians convinced them to turn on their Turkish brethren?Nope: they lived under the same military dictatorship which the NATO considered 'necessary', just like all other Turkish citizens.


How else to respond to marauding soldiers, secret police and paramilitary gangs?Eh? To your information: it was during the latest cease-fire with the Turkish government that the PKK turned a number of towns and villages inside Turkey into military fortresses. That's why the Turkish military and security then had to go fighting for these, the last two years. Even then, more Kurds were killed by other Kurds all over Turkey in the same period of time, all of them in honorary killings, than by the Turkish military and security forces.

What has that got to do with 'marauding soldiers, secret police and paramilitary gangs', please?


There was a time when NATO included more than one dictatorship, out of necessity. Now, Turkey is the one that does not fit with the others.Aha. So, the NATO considered that dictatorship 'necessary' at the time, and thus left the Turkish military terrorise its population as much as it liked. And now the NATO considers a democratically elected Turkish government for 'wrong in place' and thus isolates it at every possible opportunity...?

Man, don't you ever ask yourself any questions...?


I don’t know, which is why I asked. Support the non-PYD factions. Ensure that the YPG only includes Syrian Kurds. But any initiatives would be less than meaningful without a reckoning with the Assad-FSA conflict.How? In what fashion? Thanks to the PKK and the Daesh, it's since nearly four years that the war in northern Syria has next to nothing to do with the Syrian Civil War.


It must be nice taking potshots from the Habsburg’s former realm.Well, at least it is so that after playing a prominent role in causing two world wars with dozens of millions of casualties and colossal destruction of Europe, we've learned our lesson (sure, not all of us, but at least most of us).

Now compare this with 60+ screwed up military interventions, and the the USA can't learn anything at all. See here:

Your heroic 'SAA' (with this now standing for 'Sohail's Ass Admirers') is attacking the US-supported FSyA (https://twitter.com/hamza_780/status/862658185194287104) in south-eastern Syria, and advancing in direction of the Tanf border crossing to Iraq - and this while completely ignoring the Daesh-held area further north. Curiously, involved units are including a battery of SA-13s (still from the related video is attached below: probably because the FSyA is renown for operating F/A-18 Hornets and A-10 Thunderbolts II...

At the same time, a Turkish officer refused a US/NATO decoration for valour in combat against the Daesh (http://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/turk-subayindan-abdye-ret,z9SIexGoo0260_krxTuAGQ) (in Turkish).

BTW, he was about to be decorated by Col Kevin Leahy, CO of the 5th SFG (https://sofrep.com/65778/lions-led-lamb-open-letter-5th-special-forces-group/) (US Army's SF unit responsible for the MIddle East - and one of most politicised military positions in the USA). Word is, when Leahy approached him, he said something like, 'I do not want to upset you, but I can not accept this medal - because those who give this medal are in cooperation with my enemy, the YPG. My Honour does not allow me to accept this medal.'

This happened at the same time the US government took the decision to start providing heavy weapons - including 6 light howitzers (https://twitter.com/BarzanSadiq/status/862418084916809728) - to the terrorist organization PKK/PYD/YPG.

...to which Turkey reacted with threats to shut down Incirlik AB for US forces (https://twitter.com/taylieli/status/862696859734769668).

Twist it as you like, Azor, but if this is no evidence for the Pentagon's 'foreign policy' in Syria coming apart in most absurd fashion possible, I don't know what else is ever going to be...

Of course, you can always decide not to draw any kind of lessons from that.


Which country was it again that ensured the Ivans didn’t overstay their welcome in Vienna again?In your place I would urgently check the facts: the contract was negotiated between Austrians and four occupation powers.


You and Outlaw have an interesting habit of delving into the nuances of Arab and Turkish Sunni Islam and Islamism, but are decidedly more judgmental on the subjects of Russia, the Kurds, the Shias and the United States....Wrong. People like you are all the time discussing the latter topics, while having giant gaps in knowledge - though never asking - about the former topic.


I find myself wondering whether you both have gone native given your experiences in the Middle East, and if you have personal attachments that prevent objectivity.When it comes to Syria, I have never made it a secret that yes, I'm emotionally involved, and indeed: that I am biased. The introduction to my book Syrian Conflagration (https://www.amazon.com/Syrian-Conflagration-Civil-2011-2013-Middle/dp/1910294101) clearly says:

That said, I would like to stress that my reporting about this conflict is not only certain to contain mistakes, which are all mine, but is also biased. I find there is no doubt about causes for this war; no doubt about who turned it into an inter-ethnic and inter-religious strife; and even less doubt about who is prolonging the bloodshed and agony and turning large parts of beautiful Syria into a wasteland through internationalising this conflict.

That book was written back in late 2013 and early 2014. Ever since, I remain staunchly against - and thus biased - the Assad regime, against all the US messing around in Syria, against the IRGC presence, against Russian military intervention, against US support for terrorist organization PKK/PYD/YPG, against Turkish, Qatari, Saudi, Kuwaiti meddling, against Iranian and Russian support for terrorist organizations IRGC, Hezbollah, PFLP-GC, PLA, Daesh/IS/ISIS/ISIL, against Daesh, JAN/JFS/HTS etc., etc., etc.

From my standpoint, the situation is therefore crystal clear, and I've got all of my reasoning in this regards well-supported.

And you?

OUTLAW 09
05-12-2017, 06:23 AM
If one cannot "see and understand" the intertwining of Russian non linear warfare in direct support to the Russian political war being directed at the West especially the US...then that person has a serious problem in "seeing and understanding" world events.....

If one cannot "see and understand" just how this President is driving US FP into a ditch based on whims, bluffs and simple stupidity then one has a serious problem...he is making the "Wag the Dog" look like a raving success right now.....but it is a total failure....

If one cannot "see and understand" the failures of the Obama WH in the ME especially directed at Sunni's with a full tilt to Iran then there is a serious problem....

If one cannot "see and understand" the now the failure of Trump ME FP because there is simply none..then there is a serious problem....

If one cannot see the coming clash between Turkey, FSA and the YPG/PKK with the US in the middle there is a serious problem.....

We are about two weeks away from that clash...WHY....the Turkish senior military leadership attempted to convince Mattis that they are serious about their taking of Raqqa and failed....

Erdogan is in DC next week to explicitly tell Trump they will take Raqqa and if that fails Turkish media is indicating they will cross in force and all bets are off then....

So sometimes a cannonade is what is needed to get some people to "see and uinderstand "....

PARET of the massive US failure in Iraq was never really seen by many commenters here......

Saddam was on his last legs anyway and some very astute commenters made that point in 20033....the Iraqi ISI was constantly putting down small revolts up through and including shortly before the US invaded...from both Shia and Sunni elements...

There is an interesting political theory that says if the uprising comes from within and it is successful then the self pride generated by the "locals doing the job" tends to carry over and the revolt is in the end successful...

BUT when an outside foreign power especially in the ME does the job for the locals...there is no "self pride" and the intervention ends eventually in failure....

Because the "perception" is and in the ME it is all about "perception" we the locals were simply too dumb/stupid to do it ourselves and we needed a foreign power to tell us what to do....and there is no "pride in their achievements"....

REMEMBER this when looking at Syria....had the US simply provided the FSA with the means and tools to throw out Assad and them remained back and lent support after Assad was thrown out...we truly would not be where we are today...

BUT REMEMBER what the Obama WH "smokescreen" was and it was a "smokescreen" meant to provide him the reasoning to do nothing....

"We are still trying to find out who the "moderates" are and who we can "vet".....then the next mantra..."we need to seriously vet the moderates to make sure TOWs do not fall into the hands of IS/AQ".....and oh surprise surprise none have ever been transferred to IS/AQ.

Both have been seriously proven to be true "smokescreens".....

WHAT Obama and now Trump do not realize is that IS/AQ are Sunni based...and it must be Sunni's that end the problem not US supported Kurdish PKK....

That is the reasoning behind what Turkey is saying about they taking Raqqa as well as blocking PKK from controlling the entire Turkish border zone.

It is just great that Mattis publicly states the US will defend Turkey BUT you should realize Erdogan fully understands that is a farce of a statement unless it comes straight from Trump's own mouth....

ACTUALLY in the 40 years of PKK attacking Turkey that is in fact what the US has always stated...and still the PKK is not under control is it??

Now you can cut and paste all you want to with this..but it will not disprove what we are seeing right now on the ground in northern Syria....and it will not coverup the current Trump ME FP failure...as well as the total Obama failures....

Here is where Trump will have serious problems with Erdogan next week in DC..

1. Erdogan does not take no for an answer..he is blunt and does not smooze at all which is the world Trump comes from and Trump cannot "bluff" are well as a Turkish bazar carpet salesman can....

2. Erdogan will hold up all US statements from the last 40 years made in the so called "defence of Turkey"

3. Erdogan will point out that Turkey has been hit hard by IS and PKK and it is now time to "eliminate both"...as the US has even named PKK a terrorist group....

4. He still has the USAF base as collateral....

5. He will point out that Turkey voted in 2001 to trigger Article 5 in support of the US and now wants a favor in return

BUT it is the issue of a single word what will cause Trump problems...."credibility"....

Erdogan knows Trump has no credibility after the Comey affair...and credibility is what drives a solid FP on just about anything...

Hard to decide who at White House now has least credibility:
@realDonaldTrump
@PressSec
@KellyannePolls
(New entrant) @SarahHuckabee

IMHO I have never seen the US WH so tangled up in so many false statements and holding press conferences in the dark next to bushes...as we have seen in the last three days and that will not be lost on Erdogan.....


Turkey warned the United States on Wednesday that a decision to arm Kurdish forces fighting Islamic State in Syria could end up hurting Washington, and accused its NATO ally of siding with terrorists.
The rebuke came a week before President Tayyip Erdogan is due in Washington for his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, who approved the arms supply to support a campaign to retake the Syrian city of Raqqa from Islamic State.
Turkey views the YPG as the Syrian extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has fought an insurgency in southeast Turkey since 1984 and is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Turkey and Europe.
"We want to believe that our allies will prefer to side with us, not with a terrorist organization," Erdogan told a news conference in Ankara, saying he would convey Turkey's stance to Trump next week and at a NATO summit later this month.
He said he hoped that recently taken decisions would be changed by the time he visits the United States.
Earlier, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim told reporters the U.S. failure to consider Turkey's sensitivities "will surely have consequences and will yield a negative result for the U.S. as well".
The United States regards the YPG as a valuable partner in the fight against Islamic State militants in northern Syria. Washington says that arming the Kurdish forces is necessary to recapturing Raqqa, Islamic State's de facto capital in Syria and a hub for planning attacks against the West.
That argument holds little sway with Ankara, which worries that advances by the YPG in northern Syria could inflame the PKK insurgency on Turkish soil.

OUTLAW 09
05-12-2017, 06:43 AM
New video from Jabhat Ansar al-Islam (southern Syria rebel group) features some shots with fighters holding MANPADS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRwnsZzeq30#

Confirmed..there was in fact a shipment of MANPADs..mainly designed to eliminate copter threats and to force aircraft to fly higher and fire flares....

OUTLAW 09
05-12-2017, 06:54 AM
Azor...now we get confirmation of US intentions on Raqqa and you wonder why the Turkish blood pressure is growing....

US now admits it's liberating Raqqa for the regime:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kurd-led-force-homes-in-on-isis-bastion-with-assent-of-u-s-and-syria-alike-1494522632#

Paywall article from my end...

CrowBat
05-12-2017, 10:18 AM
To recapitulate news of the day, i.e. consequences of the Pentagon - supported by a gang of idiotically short-sighted EU governments - running the US foreign policy in Syria...

1.) Some might recall that already the administration of the US President Barack Hussein Obama declared the 'Kurds' - which here stands for the SDF-conglomerate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Democratic_Forces) - for the most 'effective fighting force (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/09/us-arm-kurdish-fighters-syria-isis-raqqa-trump)' against the terrorist organization named 'Islamic State', colloquially known as the 'Daesh' in Syria.

The issue of this 'effectiveness' is easily put under a big...nah: huge... question mark, but let's say 'never mind'. 'Problem' is that essence of the SDF is the PYD/YPG, for which most of informed Western observers - indeed, even the NATO (https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/b053-fighting-isis-road-and-beyond-raqqa#%E2%80%A6) - agree is the same like the Marxist organization PKK, established by Turkish Kurds (https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/b053-fighting-isis-road-and-beyond-raqqa#%E2%80%A6) to fight against Turkey, a NATO-ally, 30 years ago...and considered a 'terrorist organization' by the USA, by all of the NATO and most of the EU.

...all of which is a standpoint for which there is more than enough publicly-available evidence (https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/pkk-and-propaganda/#%E2%80%A6), too.

2.) Now, as mentioned above, the PKK is clearly listed as a terrorist organization by the US (https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/123085.htm). Correspondingly, any cooperation between US citizens and the PKK is strictly forbidden by US law, i.e. the Code 2339B (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2339B).

However, the US foreign policy in Syria is not run by the State Department and the CIA (i.e. as determined by valid US laws and regulations), not even by the White House - but by the Pentagon, i.e. Department of Defence, and the DIA (Defence Intelligence Agency).

Clearly, the latter three had to circumnavigate related US laws, and thus have established that SDF conglomerate to cover-up their illegal support for the PKK. Further in this regards, the Pentagon insists it cannot see any kind of relations between the PKK and the PYD/YPG, and this despite US military officers being regularly photographed in company of top PKK commanders (who at the same time are top PYD/YPG commanders too).

3.) So, now, the latest development is the Pentagon's decision to provide heavy weapons - including 6 light howitzers (https://twitter.com/BarzanSadiq/status/862418084916809728), and Javelin ATGMs, (which, BTW, it wouldn't sell even to the NATO ally Turkey) - to the PKK/PYD/YPG conglomerate.

'Surprisingly', this results with Turkish threats to shut down the Incirlik Air Base for US forces (https://twitter.com/taylieli/status/862696859734769668).

It also results in such 'incidents', like a Turkish officer refusing a US decoration for valour in combat against the Daesh (http://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/turk-subayindan-abdye-ret,z9SIexGoo0260_krxTuAGQ). He was about to get decorated by Col Kevin Leahy, CO of the US Army's 5th SFG (https://sofrep.com/65778/lions-led-lamb-open-letter-5th-special-forces-group/) - the US Army special forces unit responsible for the Middle East - and generally considered one of most politicised military positions in the USA.

Word is, the Turkish officer in question did so with the following explanation to Leahy: 'I do not want to upset you, but I can not accept this medal - because those who give this medal are in cooperation with my enemy, the YPG. My Honour does not allow me to accept this medal.'

Word is too, some of Turks consider this as a message to Erdogan: look how weak is your state, actually... But, why should anybody in the USA, the NATO or the EU care about what do the Turks think of that...?

Cooperation with the PKK is far more important...

4.) At the same time this is happening in northern Syria (and southern Turkey), there is a major new development in south-eastern Syria - and then one related to all those (including the Assadist-Regime in Damascus, but also plenty of talking-heads all over the Western hemisphere) that insisted that the Assadist-Regime would be a US ally against the Daesh (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/14/bashar-al-assad-fighting-isis-western-ally-minister-claims).

Namely, the 'heroic' military of that regime (colloqually known as 'SAA', which seems to stand for 'Sohail's Ass Admirers (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?p=204662#post204662)') is ignoring the Daesh (https://twitter.com/hamza_780/status/862658185194287104), and instead attacking the US-supported units of the Free Syrian Army.

Indeed, Assadists are attacking units that have US special forces operators embedded with them (https://www.buzzfeed.com/mitchprothero/us-special-forces-are-secretly-training-syrian-rebels-and?utm_term=.tteJyNj3l#.elAgr12BY) - and ares advancing in direction of the Tanf border crossing with Iraq, held by the US/Jordan-supported FSyA...

Curiously, involved 'SAA' units are including a battery of SA-13 surface-to-air missiles (https://twitter.com/CT_operative/status/862803304660832256): one is left to guess for what purposes are these necessary, considering neither the Free Syrian Army, nor the Daesh (should the Assadists ever find any) is operating any kind of aircraft (or helicopters)...?

Of course, I could be wrong, and the FSyA and the Daesh are operating combat aircraft and helicopters... but, that itch in my big toe tells me the only party actually operating aircraft and helicopters over that part of Syria is... surprise, surprise: US military (and allies).

5.) Ah yes: and, all of this is happening at the same time the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF conglomerate has captured the Daesh-held town of Tabqa (https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-backed-forces-seize-syrias-tabqa-dam-monitor-172024352.html) and the nearby dam (https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/862658635624742912) (the single most important installation in all of Syria), put up two giant PYD/YPG flags on the top of it (https://twitter.com/CodeAud/status/862764789860245504) (instead of handing over this facility to the local civic authorities, as promised prior to this operation), while Western diplomats are already reporting (https://www.wsj.com/articles/kurd-led-force-homes-in-on-isis-bastion-with-assent-of-u-s-and-syria-alike-1494522632), that the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF conglomerate intends to hand over Raqqa to the Assadist-Regime, once this would be recaptured from the Daesh.

Dear proponents of this kind of the US foreign policy: now it's your opportunity to explain me all of this - especially in the light of 'ending the war on terror', indeed, 'winning the war on Daesh', please.

And, please, kindly feel free to whine and twist it as you like: I do not expect you might ever understand how wrong you are, and what a mess this is going to cause (i.e. how much is this all going to prolong the war), but if this is no evidence for utter failure of the Pentagon's (and, meanwhile, White House's) 'foreign policy' in Syria... sorry, I still don't know what else is ever going to be...

Azor
05-12-2017, 04:55 PM
Outlaw,

According to you, Obama:


Failed to stop the Syrian Civil War early by fully backing the FSA
Walked back on his “red line”, allowing Assad to use cluster munitions, incendiaries and chlorine gas on civilians with impunity
Gave Iran a free hand in Syria in order to secure the JCPOA, which is more a Munich than a Versailles
Gave Russia a free hand in Ukraine in order to secure the JCPOA and possibly prevent advanced Russian SAMs to be deployed in Iran
Angered allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Began arming and partnering with the PKK in Syria
Refused the provision of MANPADs to the FSA
Refused any CAS to the FSA
Permitted Kurdish ethnic and sectarian cleansing
Was ambivalent about the attempted coup d’état in Turkey
Was critical of Turkey’s defense of its airspace but not of Russian violations


Given your invective on Trump, one might assume that the Kremlin had more kompromat on Obama, no? And you wonder why I refuse to engage with you on the U.S. political infotainment circus?

As for the WSJ article, you are twisting Assad’s approval of the SDF offensive into the SDF being synonymous with the regime.

Azor
05-12-2017, 07:34 PM
…they lived under the same military dictatorship which the NATO considered 'necessary', just like all other Turkish citizens. Aha. So, the NATO considered that dictatorship 'necessary' at the time, and thus left the Turkish military terrorise [sic] its population as much as it liked. And now the NATO considers a democratically elected Turkish government for 'wrong in place' and thus isolates it at every possible opportunity...? Man, don't you ever ask yourself any questions...?

Are you insinuating that NATO in general, and the U.S. in particular, are responsible for military rule in in Turkey during the Cold War? That is quite the excuse, considering that every country liberated by the Western Allies in Europe was reconstructed as a liberal democracy, despite Greece’s self-inflicted lapse in the late 1960s and early 1970s. As for Portugal and Turkey, neither were occupied by the U.S.

During the Cold War, the U.S. followed a dual-track approach, supporting liberal democracy as well as authoritarian anti-Communist states. Conversely, the Soviet Union did the same – with Communism substituted for liberal democracy – as you have seen for yourself in West Asia and Africa. There is no black and white here, but shades of gray.


To your information: it was during the latest cease-fire with the Turkish government that the PKK turned a number of towns and villages inside Turkey into military fortresses. That's why the Turkish military and security then had to go fighting for these, the last two years. Even then, more Kurds were killed by other Kurds all over Turkey in the same period of time, all of them in honorary killings, than by the Turkish military and security forces.

So we are parsing the history of the Turks and Kurds now? Two years out of a forty-year conflict? And that is just referring to the PKK…

Do you have any data to support your claim that the conflict is actually one of Kurds killing Kurds? If cultural or religious murders are being included, then can you compare the rates for ethnic Kurds and ethnic Turks?


…after playing a prominent role in causing two world wars with dozens of millions of casualties and colossal destruction of Europe, we've learned our lesson (sure, not all of us, but at least most of us). Now compare this with 60+ screwed up military interventions, and the USA can't learn anything at all. In your place I would urgently check the facts: the contract was negotiated between Austrians and four occupation powers.

Curious. Despite sending observers to see the Union and Confederacy have a go at it, the Europeans learned absolutely nothing from the carnage, and resorted to Napoleonic tactics fifty years later, in the face of trenches, machine guns and artillery. If the experiences mass death and the destruction of civilization are the only teaching instruments that work, why are Europeans so determined to hector other countries?

You do realize that the invocation of European “wisdom” derived from its 20th Century deluge is about as common a refrain as the “wisdom” of ancient China and Iran passed down through the millennia, right? The people who live in what was the cradle of civilization sure seem wise today, don’t they?

To paraphrase everyone’s favorite uncle, how many divisions did the Austrians have at the time they were negotiating from this position of "strength"? What percentage of Austria’s Typhoons are actually in service? Is it 1/3 or only 1/5, I forget?

More than sixty failed military interventions? I count four…

The United States has liberated some two dozen countries from oppressive military occupation, including Austria, and has protected twice that number from foreign invasion. It is also directly responsible for establishing or re-establishing liberal democracy in some dozen of these countries.

I understand why Europeans have a complicated view of the U.S. Bring up a single rape by a U.S. soldier in 1945 and there may well be a reappraisal by many Americans. Bring up the sacking of Vienna or Berlin to Russia and the response will probably involve some laughing in the Kremlin followed by a redeployment of Iskanders.

It is far easier to confront a flawed guardian than it is to confront an abuser, and the combination of jealousy and resentment offers a greater feeling of strength than fear and shame do. Despite being largely responsible for one of America’s major mistakes, Rumsfeld was not incorrect when he referred to “Old Europe” and “New Europe”. The former was annoyingly self-righteous, whereas the latter was still enjoying the lifting of the Iron Curtain.

But what is Europe and what is European? According to “Old Europe”, Malmö is Europe, not Krakow. Perhaps in a generation it will be debated whether the Iron Curtain was a blessing in disguise, when there are more gated communities, barbed wire, broken glass, cinder block walls and electrified fences in Vienna than in Sao Paulo. You may shrug, but most did in the early 1930s as well.


Your heroic 'SAA' (with this now standing for 'Sohail's Ass Admirers')

Well that’s quite an un-European sentiment. Sexual orientation and gender are fluid constructs, didn’t you know? Time for some re-education, unless you profess Islam, which is a protected bigotry.


Curiously, involved units are including a battery of SA-13s (still from the related video is attached below: probably because the FSyA is renown for operating F/A-18 Hornets and A-10 Thunderbolts II...

And? I realize that this is your wheelhouse, but what does it have to do with the price of rice?


…the US government took the decision to start providing heavy weapons - including 6 light howitzers - to the terrorist organization PKK/PYD/YPG.

Alright. And what of Turkey’s decision to allow Islamists, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, use its border as a revolving door? Or is it all Jordan’s fault?


When it comes to Syria, I have never made it a secret that yes, I'm emotionally involved, and indeed: that I am biased. The introduction to my book Syrian Conflagration clearly says:


That said, I would like to stress that my reporting about this conflict is not only certain to contain mistakes, which are all mine, but is also biased. I find there is no doubt about causes for this war; no doubt about who turned it into an inter-ethnic and inter-religious strife; and even less doubt about who is prolonging the bloodshed and agony and turning large parts of beautiful Syria into a wasteland through internationalising this conflict.

Ever since, I remain staunchly against - and thus biased - the Assad regime, against all the US messing around in Syria, against the IRGC presence, against Russian military intervention, against US support for terrorist organization PKK/PYD/YPG, against Turkish, Qatari, Saudi, Kuwaiti meddling, against Iranian and Russian support for terrorist organizations IRGC, Hezbollah, PFLP-GC, PLA, Daesh/IS/ISIS/ISIL, against Daesh, JAN/JFS/HTS etc., etc., etc.

From my standpoint, the situation is therefore crystal clear, and I've got all of my reasoning in this regards well-supported.

And you?

The situation may be crystal clear, but is an immediate solution? I would expect the blundering to continue until attrition wears out all of the parties. Again, my reference is the Thirty Years War. Compared to Syria, the problems in the former Yugoslavia during the 1990s seem relatively simple.

See Lister’s testimony. His recommendations leave much to be desired: http://www.mei.edu/content/article/testimony-syria-after-missile-strikes-policy-options

I share your antipathy for Assad, but I am no fan of Erdogan, and I believe that he has made Turkey a liability to both the EU and NATO. No one actor is a hero or villain to all.

As for the thorny issue of the PKK, I very much doubt that it will go away unless Turkey either relinquishes its Kurdish territories or devolves into a federated state that would be unacceptable to Ankara. The same is true for the Kurdish militants in Iran. The PKK/KCK has a certain legitimacy in Turkey, Syria, and Iran, not dissimilar to how the Viet Minh did in Vietnam. It will be difficult to repress them while the conflict with Turkey, Daesh and to a lesser extent, Syria, continues.

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 04:36 AM
Outlaw,

According to you, Obama:


Failed to stop the Syrian Civil War early by fully backing the FSA
Walked back on his “red line”, allowing Assad to use cluster munitions, incendiaries and chlorine gas on civilians with impunity
Gave Iran a free hand in Syria in order to secure the JCPOA, which is more a Munich than a Versailles
Gave Russia a free hand in Ukraine in order to secure the JCPOA and possibly prevent advanced Russian SAMs to be deployed in Iran
Angered allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Began arming and partnering with the PKK in Syria
Refused the provision of MANPADs to the FSA
Refused any CAS to the FSA
Permitted Kurdish ethnic and sectarian cleansing
Was ambivalent about the attempted coup d’état in Turkey
Was critical of Turkey’s defense of its airspace but not of Russian violations Failed to stop the Syrian Civil War early by fully backing the FSA
Walked back on his “red line”, allowing Assad to use cluster munitions, incendiaries and chlorine gas on civilians with impunity
Gave Iran a free hand in Syria in order to secure the JCPOA, which is more a Munich than a Versailles
Gave Russia a free hand in Ukraine in order to secure the JCPOA and possibly prevent advanced Russian SAMs to be deployed in Iran
Angered allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Began arming and partnering with the PKK in Syria
Refused the provision of MANPADs to the FSA
Refused any CAS to the FSA
Permitted Kurdish ethnic and sectarian cleansing
Was ambivalent about the attempted coup d’état in Turkey
Was critical of Turkey’s defense of its airspace but not of Russian violations


Given your invective on Trump, one might assume that the Kremlin had more kompromat on Obama, no? And you wonder why I refuse to engage with you on the U.S. political infotainment circus?

As for the WSJ article, you are twisting Assad’s approval of the SDF offensive into the SDF being synonymous with the regime.

Azor...so you believe that in fact the US has received the "blessings of Iran.....Assad and Putin.

Let me remind you of a small often overlooked item..in and around Aleppo during the height of the figthing there were FIVE recorded events following this pattern..and it is still ongoing...

BTW all posted here if you took the time to read them....

IS either pulled suddenly out of a location and then in flowed Assad/Iranian Shia units

OR FSA pushed out IS THEN were suddenly attacked by Assad/Iranian forces THEN losing them to Assad....

OR in areas controlled by YPG/PKK they pulled out and handed the area over to Assad and Iranian forces....

Turkish concerns with Raqqa are the same as the FSA..once U/Iran/Russia and PKK take Raqqa it will be turned over to Assad/Iranian forces.

REMEMBER I did post here the statement by the Syrian Russian Ambassador.."Assad has no intentions in attacking Aleppo and will not attempt to retake all of Syria..."

So what do we see now on the ground??

BTW extremely happy you agree with me on the Obama "influence in Syria"....you summarized it nicely....




Failed to stop the Syrian Civil War early by fully backing the FSA
Walked back on his “red line”, allowing Assad to use cluster munitions, incendiaries and chlorine gas on civilians with impunity
Gave Iran a free hand in Syria in order to secure the JCPOA, which is more a Munich than a Versailles
Gave Russia a free hand in Ukraine in order to secure the JCPOA and possibly prevent advanced Russian SAMs to be deployed in Iran
Angered allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Began arming and partnering with the PKK in Syria
Refused the provision of MANPADs to the FSA
Refused any CAS to the FSA
Permitted Kurdish ethnic and sectarian cleansing
Was ambivalent about the attempted coup d’état in Turkey
Was critical of Turkey’s defense of its airspace but not of Russian violations Failed to stop the Syrian Civil War early by fully backing the FSA
Walked back on his “red line”, allowing Assad to use cluster munitions, incendiaries and chlorine gas on civilians with impunity
Gave Iran a free hand in Syria in order to secure the JCPOA, which is more a Munich than a Versailles
Gave Russia a free hand in Ukraine in order to secure the JCPOA and possibly prevent advanced Russian SAMs to be deployed in Iran
Angered allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Began arming and partnering with the PKK in Syria
Refused the provision of MANPADs to the FSA
Refused any CAS to the FSA
Permitted Kurdish ethnic and sectarian cleansing
Was ambivalent about the attempted coup d’état in Turkey
Was critical of Turkey’s defense of its airspace but not of Russian violations

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 04:41 AM
Afghan army pickups seen in Iraq... Iran is not only sending mercenaries but also Afghan army equipments with them
https://www.google.se/amp/taskandpurpose.com/hell-afghan-army-pickup-trucks-iraq/amp/#

CrowBat
05-13-2017, 05:56 AM
Are you insinuating that NATO in general, and the U.S. in particular...
No. My conclusion is that the USA + NATO were 'OK' with a military regime in Turkey, when that fitted their interests, and are 'not OK' with an Islamist destroying the Turkish democracy when that's not in their interests; i.e. that to the USA + NATO it never matters what Turkish people and/or governments do, and what repercussions that has for Turkey - but only what's in US and NATO interests.


During the Cold War, the U.S. followed a dual-track approach, supporting liberal democracy as well as authoritarian anti-Communist states.......you forgot to add, 'and destroying democracies for the purpose of private interests' (see Guatemala, Chile, Iran etc., etc., etc.).


So we are parsing the history of the Turks and Kurds now? Two years out of a forty-year conflict? And that is just referring to the PKK… ...sigh... because - or thanks to you, I'll use my time in more constructive fashion, sit down and finally write a history of that conflict - based on official data from both of involved parties.


Curious. Despite sending observers to see the Union and Confederacy have a go at it, the Europeans......sigh... Azor: now you're blowing yourself up all over my windshield.

You mentioned Austria, I responded about Austria - which you obviously do not understand, just like you do not understand that with 'European', as obvious from your prose to both topics... sigh... please, go discussing in that style with somebody else.


More than sixty failed military interventions? I count four…Can't believe you're that clueless. Please, inform yourself: Timeline of United States military operations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_military_operations).

You have my apology, though, then I was wrong too: didn't count all of what's listed, but the total appears to be closer to 200.


Well that’s quite an un-European sentiment.Ah now comes the usual accusation of 'homophobia' - just because you've never heard of paedophilia, and thus can't differentiate between the two.


And? I realize that this is your wheelhouse, but what does it have to do with the price of rice?Just disregard and forget about it. Sorry, but it's beyond your ability to understand.


Alright. And what of Turkey’s decision to allow Islamists, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, use its border as a revolving door?Since by now I'm sure you wouldn't understand my answer, let me just ask you back: would you like to say you don't understand the concept of states where there are multiple, and different political and religious opinions/points of view? Where not everybody thinks and does the same?


The situation may be crystal clear...Yup, cause the next war while the last is still going on.


...but is an immediate solution?Who needs solutions?

Only pussies are war-weary.

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 07:40 AM
Outlaw,

According to you, Obama:


Failed to stop the Syrian Civil War early by fully backing the FSA
Walked back on his “red line”, allowing Assad to use cluster munitions, incendiaries and chlorine gas on civilians with impunity
Gave Iran a free hand in Syria in order to secure the JCPOA, which is more a Munich than a Versailles
Gave Russia a free hand in Ukraine in order to secure the JCPOA and possibly prevent advanced Russian SAMs to be deployed in Iran
Angered allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Began arming and partnering with the PKK in Syria
Refused the provision of MANPADs to the FSA
Refused any CAS to the FSA
Permitted Kurdish ethnic and sectarian cleansing
Was ambivalent about the attempted coup d’état in Turkey
Was critical of Turkey’s defense of its airspace but not of Russian violations


Given your invective on Trump, one might assume that the Kremlin had more kompromat on Obama, no? And you wonder why I refuse to engage with you on the U.S. political infotainment circus?

As for the WSJ article, you are twisting Assad’s approval of the SDF offensive into the SDF being synonymous with the regime.

Azor...BTW greatly appreciated your summary of my statements...because if you looked better yet read every single posting over the last two years you would see the ground reality in Syria actually supported your summary very nicely....especially if you then coupled it with the Obama and Rhodes interviews WHICH actually supported much of what you yourself have posted here.....

BTW have you noticed there are very few commenters willing to post "truth to power" regardless of where these days...personal moral courage seems to be largely missing in the drive for banality.....

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 08:15 AM
Azor...so you believe that in fact the US has received the "blessings of Iran.....Assad and Putin.

Let me remind you of a small often overlooked item..in and around Aleppo during the height of the figthing there were FIVE recorded events following this pattern..and it is still ongoing...

BTW all posted here if you took the time to read them....

IS either pulled suddenly out of a location and then in flowed Assad/Iranian Shia units

OR FSA pushed out IS THEN were suddenly attacked by Assad/Iranian forces THEN losing them to Assad....

OR in areas controlled by YPG/PKK they pulled out and handed the area over to Assad and Iranian forces....

Turkish concerns with Raqqa are the same as the FSA..once U/Iran/Russia and PKK take Raqqa it will be turned over to Assad/Iranian forces.

REMEMBER I did post here the statement by the Syrian Russian Ambassador.."Assad has no intentions in attacking Aleppo and will not attempt to retake all of Syria..."

So what do we see now on the ground??

BTW extremely happy you agree with me on the Obama "influence in Syria"....you summarized it nicely....

Azor...more proof that Assad/Iran and yes Russia are in fact playing the game mentioned above as they ever expand their control...that is why I can state with 10000% accuracy Raqqa will never be turned over to FSA if SDF/YPG/PKK capture it....

S. #Syria: #FSA announce they took back Al-Zaza checkpoint after hours of clashes with pro-Regime forces backed by Hezbollah.

S. #Syria: #SyAF reportedly carried out airstrikes on several #FSA positions, including near their HQ in Al-Tanf.

FSA had previously defeated IS in this area and it was under full FSA
control....

NOW Azor....can you finally "see and understand" what I been attempting to get you to fully understand.....BTW I am not the only one saying this.....

Amazing how @OIRSpox @CENTCOM rush to protect their PKK partners against NATO ally but silence when anti-IS rebels bombd by pro-Assad forces

The US/Jordan and FSA have invested a massive amount of effort in pushing IS out of this area...ONLY to then be blatantly attacked by Assad....Iran and Russia....

Does that make any sense???

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 08:19 AM
S. #Syria: pro-Hezbollah map showing 100 km left for Regime to reach border with #Iraq, through #FSA HQ in Al-Tanf.

So Azor...the massively interesting question which you yourself even pointed out and agreed with me....

IF Obama had been supporting FSA since say 2012 WOULD we be seeing this Hezbollah led attack on FSA on the Syrian Iraqi border.....

THEN ask the question...WHY is it critical for Iran to control this border crossing point....??

I give you the answer but will wait to see if you get it first....

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 08:22 AM
Pertains to our old Syrian friend who is credited for downing more Russian aircraft than Turkey....the Kuznetsov......


Steamer, pretending to be aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov won't get Kalibr missiles upgrade.

Old system will remain.

They could have turned her into a floating cruise missile battleship..strange that they did not...

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 02:18 PM
#Syria US anarchist fighter with #YPG on American support after USA decided to arm YPG directly
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/

I posted here the first comments on this US anarchist group....

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 02:30 PM
#Homs: #Assad forces shelling agriculture areas in Northern #Homs and destroying the harvest today.

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 02:37 PM
Azor...please pay attention to this...as it is further proof of what PKK has in mind....Manbij based on the US countless statements to be turned over to the Arabs within SDF BUT it has not been....AND in countless statements US told Erdogan the SDF/YPG would be pulled back east of the Euphates....DID that even come close to actually happening???

US-liberated Manbij has become a PKK-regime fief, writes a resident there:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/12/u-s-arms-kurds-who-are-isis-enemies-turkey-enemies-assad-friends#

THIS is exactly what CrowBat and I have been trying to get to "see and understand"....

NOTICE the mentioning of the "Baath Party"....CrowBat can fill you in on their activities within Syria and their support to Assad....

SO explain to me again just why you tend to believe that Raqqa once taken by PKK will not fall under Assad control again??

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 03:28 PM
~15 Russian airstrikes targeted FSA groups backed by US and UK to fight ISIS in Bir Qassab San' Abiar south Syria.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.292700&lon=36.774872&z=13&m=b#

NOW balance this ground reality against the countless flow of US great feel good messaging in support of the SDF/YPG/PKK

US-backed forces just got ISIS to surrender a Syrian city, and it's not the first time
http://read.bi/2qcba9k

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 04:50 PM
US strategy to mitigate Turkey's concerns could also include supporting a more influential Turkish role in Idleb gov
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/the-united-states-and-turkey-are-on-a-collision-course-in-syria-trump/#

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 08:20 PM
Assad propaganda concentrates on the rebels again, celebrating the "great victory" in #Qaboun and threatens #Jobar and #Al_Tanf.

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 08:00 AM
#LMC2017 Andrey Kortuov: US should show more flexibility on role of #Iran in Middle East/#Syria.

Russian rep to this conference......

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 12:24 PM
The video of a TOW missile system launch, which presumably led to Russian officer’s death in Syria.
https://informnapalm.org/en/video-tow-missile-system-launch-presumably-led-russian-officer-s-death-syria/#

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 01:44 PM
Damascus: #Assad Republican Guard Colonel Madeen Al Haifi died today after he was wounded by a rebel sniper in #Qaboun 8 days ago.

davidbfpo
05-14-2017, 06:02 PM
From a website I have not cited for awhile:
The regime has almost cleared the Damascus suburbs, held by the opposition since 2012. It has been attacking Tishreen, and Jaish al-Islam still has its base of Douma despite intense aerial and artillery assaults.

There is a clip of 'industrial hose bombs', which sound like a variation on minefield clearing tubes.

Link:http://eaworldview.com/2017/05/syria-daily-regime-on-verge-of-overrunning-qaboun-near-damascus/

Azor
05-14-2017, 07:03 PM
No. My conclusion is that the USA + NATO were 'OK' with a military regime in Turkey, when that fitted their interests, and are 'not OK' with an Islamist destroying the Turkish democracy when that's not in their interests; i.e. that to the USA + NATO it never matters what Turkish people and/or governments do, and what repercussions that has for Turkey - but only what's in US and NATO interests.

The West had little ability to impose its values and institutions on Turkey without driving it out of the Western military alliance, and probably into the embrace of the Soviet Union. Turkey is the only member of Western international organizations to have moved towards dictatorship over the past decade.


...you forgot to add, 'and destroying democracies for the purpose of private interests' (see Guatemala, Chile, Iran etc., etc., etc.).

I’ll give you Guatemala, but Allende and Mosaddegh were not in the strongest of positions, and the Soviets were involved in both countries at the time. Khomeini spent more time jailing, torturing and imprisoning the Leftists than the Shah did.


…thanks to you, I'll use my time in more constructive fashion, sit down and finally write a history of that conflict - based on official data from both of involved parties.

Well, the Turkish government is less than trustworthy and the PKK is a non-state actor and designated terrorist organization. How can data be “official” and what about “discrepancies” between the two datasets? Otherwise, I’m glad to have inspired you.


You mentioned Austria, I responded about Austria - which you obviously do not understand, just like you do not understand that with 'European', as obvious from your prose to both topics

Then why refer to Austria playing a “prominent” role in World War II? Austria was about as involved in World War II as Georgia was in Stalin’s mass murders. If Austria has “crimes of history” to answer for, I would suggest that they are the Thirty Years War and the First World War.

How many hundreds of failed military interventions across their borders did the Austrians launch until they arrived at their place of enlightenment today, conveniently nestled among lands protected by the Trident II?


Can't believe you're that clueless. Please, inform yourself…

You’re conflating interventions in foreign countries with “military operations”, even though Wikipedia itself has separate lists for you to peruse ;)


Ah now comes the usual accusation of 'homophobia' - just because you've never heard of paedophilia, and thus can't differentiate between the two.

You haven’t approach it from the perspective of paedophilia until now. Why make light then of such a serious subject? Where is the evidence that this man is a paedophile? Are you conflating paederasty and paedophilia?


…would you like to say you don't understand the concept of states where there are multiple, and different political and religious opinions/points of view? Where not everybody thinks and does the same?

Yet for all of Turkey’s diversity of opinion, Erdogan has had no problem purging the civil service, judiciary and armed forces of dissenters, or more accurately perceived dissenters.

Such diversity would also apply to the pro-Assad forces, FSA and SDF as well, no?


Who needs solutions? Only pussies are war-weary.

CrowBat! How behind the times. Hasn’t #ShePerservered appeared on the streets of Vienna yet?

The “30% solution” works. Just give it time. While we’re at it, we can also scoop up those draft dodgers tramping through your back yard and toss them back into the arena.

Azor
05-15-2017, 01:25 AM
Only pussies are war-weary.

By the way, "pussy" is now a political term, referring to the liberty, equality and political power of women in Western society. Women have been marching against patriarchal politicians who are seeking to "grab" or otherwise take away their "pussies", and have worn "pussyhats" in order to protect and expand their liberty, equality and self-determination.

Suffice it to say, on the contrary, "pussies" are far from weary, and are "in it to win it".

Govern yourself accordingly, or else they will march up and flush you out of your Alpine lair. ;)

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 03:54 AM
Charles Lister‏
Verifizierter Account
#@Charles_Lister 13. Mai
Very insightful article by @ColinKahl, illustrating #Obama admin perspective on U.S relations with #YPG & #Turkey:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/the-united-states-and-turkey-are-on-a-collision-course-in-syria-trump/#…

But I stress it’s illustrative of #Obama admin perspective above/beyond anything else - except 1 line, US goes entirely unblamed.

Did anyone seriously think giving #Erdogan a referendum ‘congrats' & a White House visit would smooth over overt support to #YPG/#PKK?

Turkey committed egregious errors of judgement in #Syria pre-'14, but *we* also chose to back #Ankara's 30yr+ terrorist enemy: #PKK.

While glossing over U.S. provocations, the article presents #Turkey's strikes on #YPG/#PKK as a mistake. Would we have done different?

Moreover, the prospect of a “#Turkey-Kurd war” is proposed as a danger to #Raqqa, but it’s already a reality *because of* US strategy.

Raising #Turkey’s mistakes is *very* justified, but glossing over escalatory consequences of U.S. support to #YPG/#PKK is dishonest.

As I’ve said before, picking #YPG as our *only* partner in '14 was the obvious [& easy] option & it’s proven *v* successful, till now.

Point 1: Perhaps #Erdogan’s focus on a NFZ (or similar) in N #Syria was in part to facilitate recruitment of Arab opposition for T&E?

Also: one *has to* acknowledge how desperately naive the US T&E effort was in terms of the conditions imposed on prospective recruits.

The article suggests using #YPG for #Raqqa will prevent it from pursuing its broader goals in #Syria - I mean, really? On what basis?

Countless *very* senior US officials have told me: “we've no control over #YPG decisions - not our job.”

So… where’s our influence?

Suggesting #Turkey pursue talks with #PKK is right (I’ve also said so), but why would it do so while its #Syria affiliate is booming?

Serious Q - In what world (!) could we expect the #YPG to return all heavy weapons given to it by the U.S? I mean really?… Fantasy!

To suggest the U.S should demand a #YPG withdrawal east of ERV is also right - but we’ve tried that before & it determinedly failed.

To suggest an enhanced US focus on countering #PKK (while working with #YPG) is baffling. Our point man in YPG is a 27yr PKK veteran!

Lots of talk of getting #YPG to ‘distance itself’ from #PKK, but #Obama position was they'd no ties at all. Ambiguity = sure failure.

To suggest #YPG withdraws east of ERV in return for #Turkey accepting a land-bridge linking cantons = *everything* #Ankara rejects.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:07 AM
Syrian army sends reinforcements toward border with Iraq: rebels
http://reut.rs/2pLK06F

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:10 AM
Interesting comment as this now reflects the following....no US FP that affects Europe and or the ME will be largely supported by Europeans not to speak of their leaders....

Just back from Estonia #LMC2017: No US "conservative" defending Trump is taken seriously by European liberals & conservatives any longer.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:50 AM
'US' SOF with FSA engaging IS in Southern Syria desert. Could be Norwegians/Brit w/ them too because they are known to be in the area

Azor
05-15-2017, 06:48 AM
Charles Lister‏
Verifizierter Account
#@Charles_Lister 13. Mai
Very insightful article by @ColinKahl, illustrating #Obama admin perspective on U.S relations with #YPG & #Turkey:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/the-united-states-and-turkey-are-on-a-collision-course-in-syria-trump/#…

But I stress it’s illustrative of #Obama admin perspective above/beyond anything else - except 1 line, US goes entirely unblamed.

Did anyone seriously think giving #Erdogan a referendum ‘congrats' & a White House visit would smooth over overt support to #YPG/#PKK?

Turkey committed egregious errors of judgement in #Syria pre-'14, but *we* also chose to back #Ankara's 30yr+ terrorist enemy: #PKK.

While glossing over U.S. provocations, the article presents #Turkey's strikes on #YPG/#PKK as a mistake. Would we have done different?

Moreover, the prospect of a “#Turkey-Kurd war” is proposed as a danger to #Raqqa, but it’s already a reality *because of* US strategy.

Raising #Turkey’s mistakes is *very* justified, but glossing over escalatory consequences of U.S. support to #YPG/#PKK is dishonest.

As I’ve said before, picking #YPG as our *only* partner in '14 was the obvious [& easy] option & it’s proven *v* successful, till now.

Point 1: Perhaps #Erdogan’s focus on a NFZ (or similar) in N #Syria was in part to facilitate recruitment of Arab opposition for T&E?

Also: one *has to* acknowledge how desperately naive the US T&E effort was in terms of the conditions imposed on prospective recruits.

The article suggests using #YPG for #Raqqa will prevent it from pursuing its broader goals in #Syria - I mean, really? On what basis?

Countless *very* senior US officials have told me: “we've no control over #YPG decisions - not our job.”

So… where’s our influence?

Suggesting #Turkey pursue talks with #PKK is right (I’ve also said so), but why would it do so while its #Syria affiliate is booming?

Serious Q - In what world (!) could we expect the #YPG to return all heavy weapons given to it by the U.S? I mean really?… Fantasy!

To suggest the U.S should demand a #YPG withdrawal east of ERV is also right - but we’ve tried that before & it determinedly failed.

To suggest an enhanced US focus on countering #PKK (while working with #YPG) is baffling. Our point man in YPG is a 27yr PKK veteran!

Lots of talk of getting #YPG to ‘distance itself’ from #PKK, but #Obama position was they'd no ties at all. Ambiguity = sure failure.

To suggest #YPG withdraws east of ERV in return for #Turkey accepting a land-bridge linking cantons = *everything* #Ankara rejects.

The article by Kahl is insightful, and he is correct to tar and feather Erdogan for playing with fire and then crying about getting burned. Although, I would say that at least one attack attributed to Daesh in Turkey was probably the work of the Turkish secret services looking to kill Kurds and swing a key election.

Having said that, there is no acknowledgement of American and Western failures on the Syria file that derive from:


Seeking to concentrate efforts on one or two actors (Al Qaeda and Daesh) out of the dozens of actors and various coalitions fighting in Syria
Treating terrorism in the West as the main problem of the Syrian and Iraqi Civil Wars, rather than spillover from them
Refusing to accept that Syrian and Iraqi Sunni Arabs regard the Shias, and sometimes the Kurds, as more of a threat than Daesh or Al Qaeda
Wanting maximum control over events in both countries with a minimum of effort
Attempting to separate the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts

Azor
05-15-2017, 07:05 AM
Interesting comment as this now reflects the following....no US FP that affects Europe and or the ME will be largely supported by Europeans not to speak of their leaders....

Just back from Estonia #LMC2017: No US "conservative" defending Trump is taken seriously by European liberals & conservatives any longer.

Consider that NATO relies upon Anglo-American expeditionary forces, even if the British contribution is now hollow. When London, Paris, Rome and Doha were determined to oust Qaddafi, they relied upon diplomatic, logistical, materiel and SEAD/DEAD support from the U.S., which "led from behind" perhaps as a goodwill gesture in the wake of Bush's relations with Europe. In Mali and again in Syria, the French had insufficient lift or ISR capabilities despite their modest forces.

Quite frankly, many of the names seem to be from the pro-Hillary Clinton "butthurt brigade" that hopes Trump can be impeached, the 2% of GDP on defense requirement quietly shelved, the U.S. commitment to Europe renewed, and the expansion and deepening of the EU continued.

Why anyone would pay attention to utter non-entities like Kendzior, or useful idiots like Mogherini, is beyond me. The Ivans must not be that threatening if everyone still has money for circle jerks like this on NATO's "frontline" but not enough money to properly man that frontline.

You want to talk about the tail wagging the dog: well here you have it. The Europeans would rather pontificate than take action, and the election of Trump has provided a convenient excuse for them to bloviate. At least Warsaw is clamming up and holding onto its tanks...

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 08:33 AM
Consider that NATO relies upon Anglo-American expeditionary forces, even if the British contribution is now hollow. When London, Paris, Rome and Doha were determined to oust Qaddafi, they relied upon diplomatic, logistical, materiel and SEAD/DEAD support from the U.S., which "led from behind" perhaps as a goodwill gesture in the wake of Bush's relations with Europe. In Mali and again in Syria, the French had insufficient lift or ISR capabilities despite their modest forces.

Quite frankly, many of the names seem to be from the pro-Hillary Clinton "butthurt brigade" that hopes Trump can be impeached, the 2% of GDP on defense requirement quietly shelved, the U.S. commitment to Europe renewed, and the expansion and deepening of the EU continued.

Why anyone would pay attention to utter non-entities like Kendzior, or useful idiots like Mogherini, is beyond me. The Ivans must not be that threatening if everyone still has money for circle jerks like this on NATO's "frontline" but not enough money to properly man that frontline.

You want to talk about the tail wagging the dog: well here you have it. The Europeans would rather pontificate than take action, and the election of Trump has provided a convenient excuse for them to bloviate. At least Warsaw is clamming up and holding onto its tanks...

You really do not see that if the US wants and or needs allies for anything that they cannot themselves can hanlde creditability is critical... while Trump AND notice again it is NATO debating more troops to AFG while Trump dallies around on what he wants to do...

You seem to not notice what Merkel is indicating what counts against the NATO defense spending 2%...foreign aid, humanitarian aid and the number of African mission sets that both Germany, European members of NATO have been providing WHEN the US has largely not participated in that assistance.

Check the aid amounts vs GDP of both Germany and US....

And check her statement from yesterday....EU..has the largest market, the large economy and the largest amount of troops....on the ground in Europe and the US has to send troops over because they pulled out of remaining in Europe....

THEN track the amount of NATO SOF that has been rotating in and out of Iraq, AFG and now Syria...they have as much combat times as does US SOF units....AND that does not count towards the 2% under the new Trump rules....

BTW...want to take bets on a Trump impreachment....right now running 90 to 10% that he does not remain past one year..even the UK betting offices do not give him a chance either....

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 08:40 AM
NOKIA...the cell of choice for global jihadists...in Iraq they loved the 3100 and 3200 series...

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 08:43 AM
Consider that NATO relies upon Anglo-American expeditionary forces, even if the British contribution is now hollow. When London, Paris, Rome and Doha were determined to oust Qaddafi, they relied upon diplomatic, logistical, materiel and SEAD/DEAD support from the U.S., which "led from behind" perhaps as a goodwill gesture in the wake of Bush's relations with Europe. In Mali and again in Syria, the French had insufficient lift or ISR capabilities despite their modest forces.

Quite frankly, many of the names seem to be from the pro-Hillary Clinton "butthurt brigade" that hopes Trump can be impeached, the 2% of GDP on defense requirement quietly shelved, the U.S. commitment to Europe renewed, and the expansion and deepening of the EU continued.

Why anyone would pay attention to utter non-entities like Kendzior, or useful idiots like Mogherini, is beyond me. The Ivans must not be that threatening if everyone still has money for circle jerks like this on NATO's "frontline" but not enough money to properly man that frontline.

You want to talk about the tail wagging the dog: well here you have it. The Europeans would rather pontificate than take action, and the election of Trump has provided a convenient excuse for them to bloviate. At least Warsaw is clamming up and holding onto its tanks...

Azor...and Europe needs to follow this Trump WH??...really you must admit creditability means everything in FP????

This is the actual White House statement following NK missile test. See 2nd line. HAS White House now entered the state of permanent self-parody?

BTW...Russian MoD statement...not a problem as it impacted 500kms from Russian borders....

BUT WAIT...all those Trump aggressive tweets along with TLAMs and one MOAB and this statement is all we get...come on Azor Trump can do better than that??

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 03:35 PM
.@fordrs58 makes key point: What Obama and Trump sell as pragmatism is actually idealistic and bound to backfire:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/trump-turkey-erdogan-kurds-isis-syria-raqqa/525963/?utm_source=twb …

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 03:56 PM
BREAKING - @StateDept’s Stu Jones says newly declassified info will shortly be released, detailing “the depth” of #Assad’s crimes in #Syria.

US accuses Syria of killing thousands of prisoners and burning the dead bodies in large crematorium outside Damascus.

@StateDept’s Stu Jones:

- ‘The #Assad regime abducted 65,000-117,000 people from 2011-2015 & practiced extrajudicial mass executions.'


WOW: @StateDept’s Stu Jones:

- ‘We now believe the #Assad regime has installed a crematorium at Sednaya prison, to dispose of bodies.'

@StateDept’s Stu Jones asked if military action could target crematorium:

- ‘We’re not going to signal what we’re going to do’

Jones says Russia and Iran have nothing to do with the crematorium in world notorious Sendaya prison.

Jones says the US hasn't presented this evidence to the Russians but we urged Moscow to hold the regime responsible for such atrocities.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 03:58 PM
Having a 27-year veteran #PKK commander now in #PYD write an article titled — “#Syria’s Kurds Are Not the PKK” — is just a tiny bit ironic.

Hassan Hassan حسن‏Verifizierter Account @hxhassan · 9. Mai
For over 6 years of week-by-week chronicling of the Syrian conflict & Mideast-wide debates, keep track of my column:
http://www.thenational.ae/authors/hassan-hassan …

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:12 PM
Azor...this is what I mean...Trump simply has no creditability

Trump relying on charisma to bridge old divides on first foreign trip

The White House is seeking to recast the US president as a world statesman, but critics say his confidence in his own persuasive powers is simply delusional.


“This trip is truly historic. No president has ever visited the homelands and holy sites of the Jewish, Christian, and Muslim faiths all on one trip,” McMaster said. “And what President Trump is seeking is to unite peoples of all faiths around a common vision of peace, progress, and prosperity.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:17 PM
http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2017/05/12/analysis-crackdown-continues-in-syrian-kurdish-areas/

WELL worth reading


Analysis: Crackdown Continues in Syrian Kurdish Areas

by Kyle Orton



The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) controls areas of northern Syria, operating under the name of the Democratic Union Party or PYD (its political wing) and the People’s Protection Units or YPG (its military wing). On Tuesday, President Donald Trump approved plans to arm the YPG directly, abandoning a fiction that the U.S. was only arming the Arab parts of an ostensible coalition, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is in fact controlled by the YPG/PKK. This is in preparation for the U.S. backing the “SDF” to liberate Raqqa City, the Syrian capital of the Islamic State’s (IS) caliphate. Leaving aside the geopolitical implications of the U.S. decision for NATO and regional order, and putting aside, too, the likelihood that this decision will defeat its own purposes and give IS a new lease on life, there is a purely humanitarian dimension that deserves more attention. In March the PYD effectively legalized its one-party state in northern Syria and escalated its already-severe persecution of the Kurdish opposition. That crackdown has continued.

THE NATURE OF THE PYD/YPG

The PYD/YPG is a fully integrated component of the PKK, recognised as a terrorist organisation by the European Union, NATO, and numerous individual governments, including the United States, Britain, Germany, and of course Turkey, against which the PKK has run an insurgency since 1984. The PKK was formally founded in 1978 in Turkey by Abdullah Ocalan. Ideologically, the organization mixed Marxism-Leninism and Kurdish nationalism, though the personality cult around Ocalan (“Apo”) was and is very strong. The PKK fought initially for secession and later for autonomy in the Kurdish-majority areas of Turkey.

The PKK is a severely authoritarian organisation. It spent the years leading up to its formal foundation—and indeed the years afterward, until the Turkish coup d’état in September 1980 drove the PKK from the country—attacking other Kurds and Leftists, trying to monopolize the support from that part of the Kurdish political spectrum. This did not stop. In 1985, the PKK struck down Cetin Gungor (Semir) in Sweden after he advocated internal democratic procedures. After the PKK launched its war against the Turkish state from bases in Iraq it gained considerable popularity, which is unsurprising, given the long history of anti-Kurdish discrimination by the authorities in the Turkish republic, and the especial savagery of the post-1980 junta. Ocalan used this wave of popular assent to conduct a bloody purge of those he thought might pose a future threat to his leadership, correctly calculating that this would not get much attention when set against the fact that the long-awaited war had finally begun.

Kurdish support for the PKK was not unanimous. Significant parts of the Kurdish population in Turkey sided with the state and formed militias in their villages to keep the PKK out, for example. The PKK also created Kurdish antagonists by insisting that it was the only legitimate representative of Kurdish opinion and its ruthless dealings with the large number of dissenters from this, who were and are labelled “traitor Kurds”. Forced conscription and “taxes” (extortion) imposed by the PKK on populations under its rule have obvious advantages in military-insurgency terms, but diminishing returns do set in.

The PKK began setting up local organizations in the mid-2000s, primarily in Syria and Iran but also to a lesser degree in Iraq. The intention was to hide its hand, so it could better embed in populations that were suspicious of it because of its collaboration with their governments, and to avoid the international terrorism designation, especially in the War on Terror environment after 9/11. Despite claims that the group transitioned at this point from old-line Stalinism to a form of eco-anarchistic stateless democracy called “Democratic Confederalism,” in practice old habits have remained.

BACKGROUND TO THE CRACKDOWN

The PYD/PKK made “Decree Number Five,” built out of an ordinance issued in April 2014, operational as of 13 March 2017. It requires the registration of “unlicensed” political parties on penalty of closing their offices. The PYD has not troubled itself with elections since it gained territory via Bashar al-Assad’s withdrawal in July 2012, but has nonetheless presented itself as the sole legitimate representative of Syrian Kurds and worked to suppress opposition. It has a long record of attacking peaceful demonstrators, ransacking the offices of political groups, and jailing, exiling, and even killing journalists, activists, and others.

The PYD has arrested dozens of opponents every year it has been controlling territory, and has taken in hundreds of de facto prisoners as conscripts. Last summer this intensified, with Ibrahim Biro, the leader of the Kurdish opposition umbrella group, the Kurdish National Council (KNC or ENKS), being expelled from Rojava, as the PYD calls the areas it controls, and told he would be killed if he returned. A dozen KNC members were abducted in the days that followed, including Hassan Saleh, who had been imprisoned multiple times for his resistance to the Assad regime. When protests against this conduct broke out, they were violently quelled and more KNC members were kidnapped the following day.

No less than thirty oppositionists were abducted over a two-day period before the passage of Decree Number Five. Independent events pertaining to International Women’s Day were broken up, with women arrested and one doctor stabbed by PYD youth. A women’s union that publicly resisted the demand that it submit itself for approval by the PYD was burned to the ground the day after the decree came into effect. The PYD had raided, sacked, and sealed numerous opposition offices before the decree, and within five days of passing the total stood at forty-four. The repression continued through March.

THE CURRENT WAVE OF THE CRACKDOWN

On 23 March, Amin Omar, a teacher in Derik (Al-Malikiya), was kidnapped by the PYD. Omar’s “crime” is that he is the brother of Hussein Omar, a member of the Kurdish Union Party, usually known as the Yekiti Party, a constituent of the KNC. Hussein himself was kidnapped and detained between 9 February 2017 and 20 March. Fuad Ibrahim, a youth officer with the KNC, was arrested by the PYD on 25 March. This led to protests by Kurds aligned with the KNC in Germany, where there is a very large diaspora population (and extensive PKK networks), on 27 March, demanding that the PYD be put on the terrorism list.

Ahmad Harran al-Motawab, a 16-year-old boy, was killed fighting for the PYD/YPG in Shadadi on 2 April. Al-Motawab had tried to flee Rojava to Turkey eighteen months ago, but was arrested at a PYD checkpoint. That was the last his family heard of him. As it now transpires, al-Motawab had become one of the YPG’s many child soldiers. On 10 April, Farhad Muhammad Othman, a shopkeeper in Dirbesiya, a town in northern Hasaka along the Turkish border, was arbitrarily detained by the PYD. The “taxation” policy also became a particular issue of contention in Kobani in April.

The PYD moved against the headquarters of the KNC in Qamishli on 9 May, arresting thirteen people:
1.Fasla Yusef
2.Muhsin Taher
3.Muhammad Amin Hussam
4.Narin Matini
5.Mahmud Mala
6.Abdul Samad Khalaf Biro
7.Fathi Kado
8.Ahmad Aje
9.Mahmud Haj Ali
10.Farhad Tama
11.Nooradeen Fatah
12.Taher Hassaf
13.Qasim Sharif

The PYD has released ten of the thirteen, but continues to detain Ms. Fasla Yusef, the vice president of the KNC, Muhsin Taher, and Muhammad Amin Hussam.

It was reported that in separate operations on 9 May, the PYD abducted another four KNC officials, two of them women, from their homes in Qamishli, and closed down the offices of the Germany-based Democracy Centre for the Human Rights.

There is a claim from this morning that yesterday the PYD’s security forces, the Asayish, raided a village in Hasaka Province searching for Rami al-Turki, a young man who had been conscripted by the YPG before deserting. Al-Turki allegedly hid, until the PYD began threatening his family by, inter alia, firing in the air, at which point he charged them. In the ensuing melee, it is alleged that at least four civilians, including al-Turki, and three YPG militiamen were killed.

CONCLUSION

Most often the PYD settles for short-term arrest as a scare tactic, which can be effective, not least because time in PYD prisons so often includes torture. There are other occasions when those apprehended are either kept in custody over long periods (the PYD still holds political prisoners it abducted in 2012), expelled from the Syrian Kurdish areas, or killed. A notable case is Kawa Khaled Hussein, a member of the Kurdish opposition Azidi Party, who was tortured to death in PYD custody.

It would be a positive development if the U.S. used its leverage to insist that the PYD cease its attacks on Kurdish opposition groups and allowed space for diversity of opinion. However, there are reasons to be sceptical that this is possible, relating to the PYD’s very nature.

“The PYD’s terrorist practices reveal the hypocrisy of its claims regarding its democratic attitude,” the KNC said in a press release on 11 May; “they attest to the PYD’s … growing isolation from the population.” This is what the KNC is expected to say. It is also true. As The International Crisis Group recently noted, the PYD remains focused on Turkey, holding to the PKK line.

Continued....

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:23 PM
"Behind the smoke screen of [#PYD] egalitarian ideology, the Kurdish national project manifests"
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/from-qamishli-to-qamishlo-a-trip-to-rojavas-new-capital …

"By relying on the #YPG in the fight against #ISIS, U.S. is helping one terror group fight against another."
— U.S. amb. to Syria, 2011-14

Amb @fordrs58 on the nature of the U.S.'s chosen partners in #Syria and the long-term disaster it's setting up.

The Fatal Flaw in Trump's ISIS Plan
Can he keep both the Turks and the Kurds on his side?
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/trump-turkey-erdogan-kurds-isis-syria-raqqa/525963/

Azor.......head's up.....
Aleppo: #YPG released dozens of arrested Arab refugees in #Manbij and gave them 1-week ultimatum to leave #YPG-controlled areas.

AND that is not ethnic cleansing?????

Manbij is and was Arab....

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:27 PM
PYD spokesperson wrote for @NYTimes of group's democratic character, just after it abducted 13 Kurdish dissidents.
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2017/05/13/pkk-media-democracy-terror-laws/

Media, Democracy, and Terrorism Laws

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 13 May 2017


The New York Times on 11 May carried an op-ed entitled, “Once We Beat ISIS, Don’t Abandon Us,” by Sinam Mohamad, the effective foreign minister of the governance structure in northern Syria administered by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian departments of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This comes just over two weeks after another senior PYD/PKK official, Ilham Ahmed, was given space to disseminate the group’s messaging in The Washington Post, and the problems remain the same.

Ms. Mohamad—like Ms. Ahmed—was not identified by her party affiliation, and was instead identified as the “foreign envoy for the Democratic Federal System of Northern Syria”. This slight deception conceals the larger issue of the PYD’s nature, a totally integrated component of the PKK’s transnational edifice. Ms. Mohamad claims that the PYD/YPG and their front-groups, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), “are not the P.K.K.” This is to be expected since the PKK is a registered terrorist organization by NATO, the E.U., Britain, Germany, the United States, and others.

The PYD is backed in this contention of a distinction between the YPG/SDF and the PKK by the United States government, which—as best it can—retains this fiction in order to circumvent its own terrorism laws and work with the SDF against IS. The Western press has also adhered to this, presenting this matter, when it is mentioned at all, as a contest between “Turkey’s view” of the YPG as an extension of the PKK and the YPG/SDF’s denial of that—a faux neutral posture of even-handedness, rather than objectivity. The objective stance might raise uncomfortable questions about how media organizations should deal with blacklisted groups.

Ms. Mohamad uses the platform to attack the Turkish government. Brusquely
dismissing Ankara’s fears that Rojava, as the PYD calls the area it controls, would become a launchpad for the PKK’s insurgency inside Turkey, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is said to be “no friend to the Kurds in Syria or in his own country” and to want to “decimate Rojava simply because his regime cannot tolerate a pluralistic democracy that includes the Kurds right next door”.

The history of harsh discrimination against Kurds by the Turkish republic is well enough known. It has improved from the days of the Kemalist junta in the 1980s and 1990s, but there is still a long way to go. Turkey’s government has made headway in terms of human rights generally since the coup of 1980, but, again, the recent authoritarian backsliding is plain for all to see. This does not negate the fears the Turkish government has about a PYD-run enclave, which as mentioned above are well-founded, and would be shared by any government in Turkey of any ideological character. Indeed, it is quite likely that Turkey would have moved against the PYD long before now if the General Staff were still running things.

It is the matter of democracy on which Ms. Mohamad chooses to place her emphasis, and it is here that the most glaring deficiencies with the op-ed become evident. There are references to the “unique democratic system” being built by the PYD and their “interest [in] promoting a federated system of local democracy in Syria”.

The key paragraph is:

Not only is our aim to fight against the Islamic State—and not Turkey—but we are also fighting for democracy, for a just and inclusive society in which Arabs, Kurds, Syriacs, Turkmen and other ethnic groups in our diverse area of Syria govern together, where women and men have an equal voice, protected by law. In city after city that we have liberated, whether majority Kurdish or not, we have given residents the opportunity to form their own democratic local governments. [Emphasis original.]

This is textbook from the PYD, framing its state-building project in Syria in universalist, liberal terms as a means of defeating the Islamic State (IS). Parts of this are even true. The PYD has proven—with the provision of weapons, intelligence, logistics, and massive air power—an efficient partner for the international Coalition against IS. The PYD is also the only organization situated to begin an operation to evict IS from its capital, Raqqa City, if the priority is to begin that operation now and the assumption is that IS’s defeat can be measured in the square-miles it controls. But this is only part of the story.

In terms of sustainably defeating IS, the U.S. has at least paid lip-service to the idea that liberated populations must be governed by institutions they see as legitimate. Many Arab populations, Raqqa included, are hostile to the PYD’s political program. This led the U.S. to the idea of using the PYD/YPG to liberate Arab-majority cities and then letting locals to govern themselves, which Ms. Mohamad says has been the PYD practice. This was tried in Minbij. It quickly went wrong, with locals chafing under the Minbij Military Council, a poorly-disguised PKK proxy. (This helped damage U.S.-Turkey relations, since the Turks had supported the PYD/PKK-led Minbij operation, on condition that these forces left the city after liberation.) And that was long before the PYD began handing areas of Minbij over to the coalition of forces supporting Bashar al-Assad, which we can assume will not have democratization as a priority. The U.S. had imagined that Minbij could be the model for Raqqa—and of course it probably will be.

Meanwhile, this stress on ethnic diversity from the PYD is a useful mask for its political monopoly. The PYD has not generated a unique governance model: it inherited institutions almost wholesale from the Assad regime, which continues to operate alongside the PYD and to maintain key parts of the PYD statelet’s infrastructure. This is part of the reason some Kurds compare the PYD to the Ba’ath Party. The other reason is its intolerance of dissent. As Ms. Mohamad’s op-ed went into print, the PYD had just arrested thirteen more Kurdish political opponents, kidnapped four others from their homes, and shut the offices of an NGO. Hundreds of Kurdish dissidents have been arrested, tortured, or beaten up by PYD-directed mobs since 2012-13, with many more expelled and dozens murdered by live-fire against peaceful protesters, extra-judicial assassinations, and maltreatment in prisons. The persecution of the Kurdish opposition in PYD-held areas has escalated since March when the PYD legalized its one-party system. This is not quite the image that the PYD presents to Western audiences.

The PYD’s suppression of dissent matters when calibrating how deeply the West should get involved with the party. The engagement began militarily, against IS. The PYD’s conciliatory relations with the regime made it into the primary U.S. anti-IS partner, since it allowed—so it appeared—U.S. engagement solely on a counter-terrorism basis. The problem, even in narrow anti-IS terms, is that the Arab opposition, not the PYD, are the force demographically capable of holding the territory IS is cleared from, and they would insist on continuing the anti-Assad fight. Regardless, the tactical decision to support the PYD is defensible to keep IS out of the Kurdish-majority areas. There is no geopolitical rationale to get more deeply politically entangled with the PYD, however: it damages the NATO alliance at a time when Russia is on the march, and it degrades a bilateral relationship with an incredibly strategically-positioned ally for the sake of a militia, landlocked in a corner of Syria, whose only non-hostile relations are with the pro-Assad coalition. If the PYD truly embodied the West’s values, it might make a case for risking relations on their behalf, but this is not so.

It is fair for the PYD to insist they are owed a debt for their collaboration with the Coalition against IS, and some kind of autonomy would seem to be a reasonable price. Decentralization is in Syria’s future anyway, and Kurdish self-government is a just cause. But supporting the party itself, rather than independent institutions in the Syrian Kurdish areas, cements in place a PYD autocracy that has limited local buy-in, setting up a long-term crisis when such a brittle system buckles, as such systems always do.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:31 PM
BREAKING - @StateDept’s Stu Jones says newly declassified info will shortly be released, detailing “the depth” of #Assad’s crimes in #Syria.

US accuses Syria of killing thousands of prisoners and burning the dead bodies in large crematorium outside Damascus.

@StateDept’s Stu Jones:

- ‘The #Assad regime abducted 65,000-117,000 people from 2011-2015 & practiced extrajudicial mass executions.'


WOW: @StateDept’s Stu Jones:

- ‘We now believe the #Assad regime has installed a crematorium at Sednaya prison, to dispose of bodies.'

@StateDept’s Stu Jones asked if military action could target crematorium:

- ‘We’re not going to signal what we’re going to do’

Jones says Russia and Iran have nothing to do with the crematorium in world notorious Sendaya prison.

Jones says the US hasn't presented this evidence to the Russians but we urged Moscow to hold the regime responsible for such atrocities.

Odd to be doing this just as reports emerge that US plan is to hand Raqqa back to Assad after ISIS is gone.

BUT WAIT...AI has reported on this far earlier than the DoS....

Thousands of executed prisoners in #Syria cremated." Amnesty reported 13,000 killed 2011-5
http://saydnaya.amnesty.org
https://www.axios.com/us-syria-killing-thousands-of-prisoners-burning-them-in-crematorium-2408646436.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_term=politics&utm_content=textshort …

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:55 PM
Hama: #Assad warplanes bombing #Lataminah area in Northern #Hama today.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 04:58 PM
Assad: "We need #Al_Tanf to cut supply route of #ISIS towards #Mosul."
#Iran: "We need #Al_Tanf to fight the Grand Satan (USA)."

For Assad, "fighting ISIS" means moving troops into the area after rebels have cleared ISIS from it.
http://bit.ly/2r966nv

New joint border checkpoint by #FSA in #Syria & tribal forces in #Iraq to protect borders and trucks passing btwn both countries from #ISIS.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 05:09 PM
I made an album of ~40 IS-made rocket launchers documented captured by ISF in W. Mosul. Widespread use indicated
http://imgur.com/a/YFZCh

Azor
05-15-2017, 05:19 PM
You really do not see that if the US wants and or needs allies for anything that they cannot themselves can handle creditability [sic] is critical...while Trump AND notice again it is NATO debating more troops to AFG while Trump dallies around on what he wants to do...

You seem to not notice what Merkel is indicating what counts against the NATO defense spending 2%...foreign aid, humanitarian aid and the number of African mission sets that both Germany, European members of NATO have been providing WHEN the US has largely not participated in that assistance.

Check the aid amounts vs GDP of both Germany and US....

And check her statement from yesterday....EU..has the largest market, the large economy and the largest amount of troops....on the ground in Europe and the US has to send troops over because they pulled out of remaining in Europe....

THEN track the amount of NATO SOF that has been rotating in and out of Iraq, AFG and now Syria...they have as much combat times as does US SOF units....AND that does not count towards the 2% under the new Trump rules....

BTW...want to take bets on a Trump impreachment....right now running 90 to 10% that he does not remain past one year..even the UK betting offices do not give him a chance either....

zor...and Europe needs to follow this Trump WH??...really you must admit creditability means everything in FP????

This is the actual White House statement following NK missile test. See 2nd line. HAS White House now entered the state of permanent self-parody?

BTW...Russian MoD statement...not a problem as it impacted 500kms from Russian borders....

BUT WAIT...all those Trump aggressive tweets along with TLAMs and one MOAB and this statement is all we get...come on Azor Trump can do better than that??
Attached Images

Azor...this is what I mean...Trump simply has no creditability

Trump relying on charisma to bridge old divides on first foreign trip

The White House is seeking to recast the US president as a world statesman, but critics say his confidence in his own persuasive powers is simply delusional.

Firstly, the issue is the level of contribution to collective defense not international peacekeeping. European contributions to UN missions in Africa and aid have not made Europe more secure, given that millions of Africans still seek work and welfare in Europe. Indeed, the 2011 intervention in Libya had more of an impact on European security than Europe’s other efforts in Africa have. The only NATO members where humanitarian or foreign aid plus defense spending reaches the 2% of GDP target are Denmark and Norway, not France or Germany. As for Denmark and Norway, helping out in Africa won't make a difference if they clash with Russia in the Arctic. If that scenario occurs, it will be the U.S. and Royal Navies that get there first. Oslo is more interested in investing its oil profits in micro-finance and green energy than on defense or - heaven forbid - returning the taxpayers' money to the taxpayers.

It could very well be argued that Europe can afford the luxury of humanitarian dabbling in Africa precisely because of U.S. conventional and nuclear protection. For instance, Canada emerged from World War II with a very large and capable military by default, and leveraged this new power into a peacekeeping role. Yet Canada hollowed out its military throughout the Cold War to the point that it was incapable of deploying even token forces on peacekeeping missions during much of the 1990s, and now its global “role” exists primarily in the minds of Canadians.

Secondly, Merkel is undoubtedly the worst German postwar leader, whose policies have threatened the stability of Germany and the European integration process. Despite her apparent knowledge of Russia and Putin, she did nothing to prepare for a harsh Russian response to the Ukrainian Revolution of 2014, when the EU’s “soft power” was met with Russian hard power. Germany is the paymaster of the EU and so Merkel could not have been unaware of developments in Ukraine prior to late 2013; her government also took a keen interest in the fate of Timoshenko and other opponents of Yanukovych. Yet there was no grand strategy, which would have factored in energy sources as much as defense spending, and as usual it is the responsibility of the United States to ensure that Russia does not start gnawing on NATO’s borders. Unfortunately, despite being a permanent fixture in the Chancellory and an Albatross in German politics, Merkel is a mere caretaker whose reactive policies are more impulsive and naïve than her current counterpart in the White House.

Thirdly, Afghanistan will remain an open sore permanently, because true Pashtun self-determination is an existential threat to Pakistan, because Pakistan’s antidote to Pashtun nationalism is Islamist Pashtunwali, and because Pashtunistan is a haven for narcotics and terrorism. Hopefully Trump will retreat to the northern areas of Afghanistan and use special forces and UCAVs to police the south.

Lastly, if European NATO was so capable, why couldn't it:


Handle Qaddafi on its own?
Handle intervention against Al Qaeda and Daesh on its own?
Surge forces to the Baltics and Poland on its own?


You as well as anyone should know that the on-paper strength is only the beginning of the story. European capabilities have atrophied and readiness levels are poor; in Germany, they are worse than during the scandalous 1970s. They've enjoyed the "peace dividend" and now Russia is on the move yet again. What'll it be? Thus far, it seems to be a combination of Munich and the Phoney War...

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 05:21 PM
The Russian air campaign in Syria in April predominantly targeted civilians in Idlib, a supposed "deescalation zone"
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-unrelenting-attacks-syrian-civilians …

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 06:19 PM
Read the latest from @SyriaSource on #Raqqa and the oil economy of #ISIS:
http://bit.ly/2rioW8E

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 06:39 PM
Firstly, the issue is the level of contribution to collective defense not international peacekeeping. European contributions to UN missions in Africa and aid have not made Europe more secure, given that millions of Africans still seek work and welfare in Europe. Indeed, the 2011 intervention in Libya had more of an impact on European security than Europe’s other efforts in Africa have. The only NATO members where humanitarian or foreign aid plus defense spending reaches the 2% of GDP target are Denmark and Norway, not France or Germany. As for Denmark and Norway, helping out in Africa won't make a difference if they clash with Russia in the Arctic. If that scenario occurs, it will be the U.S. and Royal Navies that get there first. Oslo is more interested in investing its oil profits in micro-finance and green energy than on defense or - heaven forbid - returning the taxpayers' money to the taxpayers.

It could very well be argued that Europe can afford the luxury of humanitarian dabbling in Africa precisely because of U.S. conventional and nuclear protection. For instance, Canada emerged from World War II with a very large and capable military by default, and leveraged this new power into a peacekeeping role. Yet Canada hollowed out its military throughout the Cold War to the point that it was incapable of deploying even token forces on peacekeeping missions during much of the 1990s, and now its global “role” exists primarily in the minds of Canadians.

Secondly, Merkel is undoubtedly the worst German postwar leader, whose policies have threatened the stability of Germany and the European integration process. Despite her apparent knowledge of Russia and Putin, she did nothing to prepare for a harsh Russian response to the Ukrainian Revolution of 2014, when the EU’s “soft power” was met with Russian hard power. Germany is the paymaster of the EU and so Merkel could not have been unaware of developments in Ukraine prior to late 2013; her government also took a keen interest in the fate of Timoshenko and other opponents of Yanukovych. Yet there was no grand strategy, which would have factored in energy sources as much as defense spending, and as usual it is the responsibility of the United States to ensure that Russia does not start gnawing on NATO’s borders. Unfortunately, despite being a permanent fixture in the Chancellory and an Albatross in German politics, Merkel is a mere caretaker whose reactive policies are more impulsive and naïve than her current counterpart in the White House.

Thirdly, Afghanistan will remain an open sore permanently, because true Pashtun self-determination is an existential threat to Pakistan, because Pakistan’s antidote to Pashtun nationalism is Islamist Pashtunwali, and because Pashtunistan is a haven for narcotics and terrorism. Hopefully Trump will retreat to the northern areas of Afghanistan and use special forces and UCAVs to police the south.

Lastly, if European NATO was so capable, why couldn't it:


Handle Qaddafi on its own?
Handle intervention against Al Qaeda and Daesh on its own?
Surge forces to the Baltics and Poland on its own?


You as well as anyone should know that the on-paper strength is only the beginning of the story. European capabilities have atrophied and readiness levels are poor; in Germany, they are worse than during the scandalous 1970s. They've enjoyed the "peace dividend" and now Russia is on the move yet again. What'll it be? Thus far, it seems to be a combination of Munich and the Phoney War...

Oh where to start.....??


Handle Qaddafi on its own?
Handle intervention against Al Qaeda and Daesh on its own?
Surge forces to the Baltics and Poland on its own?

1. Go back and actually check how long the US and Obama were engaged in the Qaddafi take down.....??

How many days until they turned it over to NATO to include NATO command leadership EXACTLY TEN??

2. Let's see..not exactly sure which NATO partners warned the US about going into Iraq which has triggered the now IS which morphed out of QJBR and the AQI....supported by Assad BUT a little bird said France and Germany....and several others with their predictions of what would happen actually now occurring.....

3. Outside of a US HBCT and one Aviation Bde and one Airborne Bde virtually all other troops are NATO..logistics first initially US and then replaced by NATO logisitics units....even the Baltic Air Patrols are largely being flown by NATO....the 2nd CAV was always in Europe with only the last remaining Aviation Bde (10th CAB) which was to go home before Crimea....after coming back from AFG...

WHAT is not being talked about is that normally all BCTs and HBCTS undergo yearly train up cycles ..about 22 per year with only really one National Training Area big enough to shot and move on the scale now seen in the Baltics and Poland....same for the US artillery units.....NEVER underestimate the value of deploying and shooting live ammo to these units....

AND what is more important to DoD... all of this is being covered by added OCFs which does not come out of the yearly DoD defence budget which has been under sequestion..so basically it is a "free show of force" against Russian intentions....

BTW...since the slow down of combat rotations to AFG and Iraq many units complain about the day to day grind of being "in garrison"...so "fun, travel and adventure" get's a workout....

So in fact the US is retesting the Rapid Deployment concepts of the Cold War Reforger Exercises and giving the HBCTs a chance to stretch their legs and shoot or as the armor units say..."placing metal on metal" in their respective war time combat areas....

And the US taxpayer is footing the bill and NATO picks up the manuever damage piece and is funding the Forward Deployed Storage Depots....which will allow for a rapid deployment and just falling in on their equipment....just as they did for Reforger...

NATO is building out the infrastructure with no cost to the US BTW...

AND we can thank Putin for bringing back the NATO upgrading of their armor and several countries rebuilding their armored forces ie tanks...example Germany....

So I am not sure what the problem is??

AND here is the kicker..ALL these NATO costs mentioned above do not count against their 2% requirements....

Azor
05-15-2017, 06:55 PM
Oh where to start.....??

1. Go back and actually check how long the US and Obama were engaged in the Qaddafi take down.....??

How many days until they turned it over to NATO to include NATO command leadership EXACTLY TEN??

2. Let's see..not exactly sure which NATO partners warned the US about going into Iraq which has triggered the now IS which morphed out of QJBR and the AQI....supported by Assad BUT a little bird said France and Germany....and several others with their predictions of what would happen actually now occurring.....

3. Outside of a US HBCT and one Aviation Bde and one Airborne Bde virtually all other troops are NATO..logistics first initially US and then replaced by NATO logisitics units....even the Baltic Air Patrols are largely being flown by NATO....the 2nd CAV was always in Europe with only the last remaining Aviation Bde (10th CAB) which was to go home before Crimea....after coming back from AFG...

WHAT is not being talked about is that normally all BCTs and HBCTS undergo yearly train up cycles ..about 22 per year with only really one National Training Area big enough to shot and move on the scale now seen in the Baltics and Poland....same for the US artillery units.....NEVER underestimate the value of deploying and shooting live ammo to these units....

AND what is more important to DoD... all of this is being covered by added OCFs which does not come out of the yearly DoD defence budget which has been under sequestion..so basically it is a "free show of force" against Russian intentions....

BTW...since the slow down of combat rotations to AFG and Iraq many units complain about the day to day grind of being "in garrison"...so "fun, travel and adventure" get's a workout....

So in fact the US is retesting the Rapid Deployment concepts of the Cold War Reforger Exercises and giving the HBCTs a chance to stretch their legs and shoot or as the armor units say..."placing metal on metal" in their respective war time combat areas....

And the US taxpayer is footing the bill and NATO picks up the manuever damage piece and is funding the Forward Deployed Storage Depots....which will allow for a rapid deployment and just falling in on their equipment....just as they did for Reforger...

NATO is building out the infrastructure with no cost to the US BTW...

AND we can thank Putin for bringing back the NATO upgrading of their armor and several countries rebuilding their armored forces ie tanks...example Germany....

So I am not sure what the problem is??

As someone who fancies themselves to be a strategic thinker, you can start by looking at the big picture rather than snippets of anecdotal evidence that is supposed to confirm your rightness.

RE:

1. Irrelevant. The ORBAT, strikes on Libyan ground forces and the special forces embedded with the rebels all point to an operation driven by Doha, Paris and London. The U.S. provided crucial C4ISR, (S)DEAD, logistics, WMD security, and diplomatic clout at the UNSC, but otherwise was not the prime mover.

2. Also irrelevant. NATO members who refused to join the “Coalition of the Willing” had no inkling as to how the War in Iraq would unfold. The subversion and guerrilla warfare did not arise until Bremer’s blunders. The U.S. was also warned that Afghanistan would be a repeat of the Vietnam experience, which was untrue.

3. Baltic Air Policing is a token force. Should Americans be grateful that the Europeans can muster a few aircraft to patrol their own borders? Again, this slow reactivity does not exactly fill me with confidence about Europe’s political leadership. It is an improvement, however.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 07:01 PM
Azor..another one for you to comment on....

Syria: YPG leader: "We don't deny our connection with PKK and Ocalan. I'm proud that I have a photo of Ocalan on my desk."

NOTICE he says nothing about ethnicc cleansing of Arabs from Arab villages and towns does he....??

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 07:03 PM
Raqqa: Several districts of #Raqqa were flooded after #US airstrikes destroyed a new dam north of #Raqqa City.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 07:05 PM
Raqqa: #US soldier carrying #YPG flag and badges near #Raqqa City.

BTW..if this particular US soldier was seen carrying this flag on the streets of Germany he would be arrested and jailed up to 3 years just for carrying it....AND does this soldier actually understand he is supporting a US named terrorist organization and that it is Communist inspired and has been fighting against Turkey for over 40 years and Turkey supported in 9/11 the US by voting to trigger Article 5....????

Probably not as most US soldiers are really weak on international politics and affiars....

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 07:07 PM
DeirEzzor: #US airstrikes have killed 25+ #Syria|n civilians in #Abu_Kamal today.

The US is getting up to Russian levels of terror with aerial bombing.

#Raqqa: 379+ #Syria|n civilians were killed by #US airstrikes and #YPG artillery shelling in #Raqqa Province in the last 30 days.

Raqqa: #YPG has shelled Mazra’et al Asadiya village north of #Raqqa with artillery and killed 18 civilians, including 8 children & 3 women.

Azor
05-15-2017, 07:22 PM
Raqqa: #US soldier carrying #YPG flag and badges near #Raqqa City.

BTW..if this particular US soldier was seen carrying this flag on the streets of Germany he would be arrested and jailed up to 3 years just for carrying it....AND does this soldier actually understand he is supporting a US named terrorist organization and that it is Communist inspired and has been fighting against Turkey for over 40 years and Turkey supported in 9/11 the US by voting to trigger Article 5....????

Probably not as most US soldiers are really weak on international politics and affairs....

Is he a serving U.S. soldier or a volunteer from the U.S.?

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 07:24 PM
As someone who fancies themselves to be a strategic thinker, you can start by looking at the big picture rather than snippets of anecdotal evidence that is supposed to confirm your rightness.

RE:

1. Irrelevant. The ORBAT, strikes on Libyan ground forces and the special forces embedded with the rebels all point to an operation driven by Doha, Paris and London. The U.S. provided crucial C4ISR, (S)DEAD, logistics, WMD security, and diplomatic clout at the UNSC, but otherwise was not the prime mover.

2. Also irrelevant. NATO members who refused to join the “Coalition of the Willing” had no inkling as to how the War in Iraq would unfold. The subversion and guerrilla warfare did not arise until Bremer’s blunders. The U.S. was also warned that Afghanistan would be a repeat of the Vietnam experience, which was untrue.

3. Baltic Air Policing is a token force. Should Americans be grateful that the Europeans can muster a few aircraft to patrol their own borders? Again, this slow reactivity does not exactly fill me with confidence about Europe’s political leadership. It is an improvement, however.

BTW...the last time I checked you were not part and parcel of the targeting team nor sat in on the classified briefings...nor sat in the NATO planning center ship off shore...

THE first TEN days was under Obama control until Congress virtually demanded he hand off to NATO....which he did.....BTW then the majority of the flown missions were NATO and the US pulled back fighter assets...

Noticed you did not read the SWJ article just posted concerning the failure of AFG..losing in AFG.......even Bill M commented on it...read it ..it is interesting to say the least....So maybe not a true VN loss BUT close enough.

So the Trump leadership in global FP has inspired you??

Right now after two major Ultra Right populist party failures actually counting Austria THREE failures and the fourth coming...I would say EU is holding up nicely when compared to Brexit and Trump....

REMEBER the Trump tweet praising Le Pen...the French did and still do....

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 07:35 PM
Kyle Orton
✔ @KyleWOrton #Assad's prisons have long been known to be de facto death camps, now they have crematoriums to burn the bodies.
http://reut.rs/2pCQoky

Azor
05-15-2017, 08:49 PM
BTW...the last time I checked you were not part and parcel of the targeting team nor sat in on the classified briefings...nor sat in the NATO planning center ship off shore...

Yawn. Actually you didn't check. But at any rate your snippets aren't convincing me that Libya was a great feat for European arms. If anything, it showed the clear lack of independent capability, which would only be beneficial if the U.S. feared the rise of a threatening great power in West-Central Europe more than Russia.

Your style of debate is perhaps more suited to Disqus or Twitter, where context and facts are less important, and ad hominem rules the day.


THE first TEN days was under Obama control until Congress virtually demanded he hand off to NATO...which he did...BTW then the majority of the flown missions were NATO and the US pulled back fighter assets...

Which makes perfect sense considering that the U.S. was required to perform DEAD prior to Anglo-French fighters stealing the show.


Noticed you did not read the SWJ article just posted concerning the failure of AFG...losing in AFG...even Bill M commented on it...read it...it is interesting to say the least....So maybe not a true VN loss BUT close enough.

I don't have time to read everything. I'm still deciding whether to respond to the "Complex IPB" article by Vicrasta. My opinions on Afghanistan are well-known and haven't changed.


So the Trump leadership in global FP has inspired you?

No. But I don't inspire easily. I'm a cynic and the only idealists worth believing in tend to be powerless and soon to shake off their mortal coils.


Right now after two major Ultra Right populist party failures actually counting Austria THREE failures and the fourth coming...I would say EU is holding up nicely when compared to Brexit and Trump...

REMEMBER the Trump tweet praising Le Pen...the French did and still do....

You continue to conveniently ignore that the right-wing populist movements in Europe are disparate and began long before Putin's influence operations began in earnest. It is logical for Brussels to blame Moscow rather than its own overreach, but it is more concerning to see people with your experience and knowledge guzzling the Kool-Aid.

If Macron recalls Trump's endorsement of Le Pen, Trump recalls the heavy endorsement of Clinton by his opposite numbers. Unless the French plan to keep their forces in Mali permanently and start a colony, or merely hold candles in response to Daesh attacks, Macron would do well to be professional.

The EU model of vertical and horizontal integration is broken. It will face containment and rollback by key constituencies for some time, and will be less attractive to prospective entrants.

Certainly, there was a brief moment somewhere between 2003-2010, when the "correlation of forces" (to use the vague but useful Soviet term), seemed in Europe's favor. By comparison, the recession, asset bubbles, racism, gun violence and foreign adventures of the U.S. did evoke a sense of American decline. Those Neo-Conservatives who had laughed at Western Europe in the early 2000s seemed very wrong. But the world came to learn that Europe was simply more opaque and less willing to confront the problems that it faced.

For all intents and purposes the EU or Eurozone scare of the 2000s has gone the way of the Japan scare of the 1990s. Now the attention is on China, which will probably plateau in the coming decades as a middle income country. How will the CPC retain power without the 6% Mandate of Heaven? The world has been moving in the multipolar direction since the 1960s, but the U.S. has thus far seen off all rival "first among equals"...

Azor
05-15-2017, 10:24 PM
1. The SDF has captured Shnina, Abdallah and al-Kubra settlements in Raqqa Governorate

2. The YPG has shelled Turkish-backed FSA forces at Khaljibirin in Aleppo Governorate, in the Turkish-FSA zone

3. Eldar or Aldar Khalil of Rojava's TEV-DEM Executive Committee writes at Foreign Policy on the Turkish-Kurdish Conflict and PYD-PKK relations (www.foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/15/syrias-kurds-are-not-the-pkk-erdogan-pyd-ypg). Selected excerpts below:


I am a member of the Movement for a Democratic Society (TEV-DEM), an umbrella organization made up of six political parties and civil society institutions, including the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the leading Kurdish party in northern Syria. We are recognized by the PYD, as well as the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) as their political leadership. We are devoted to building an egalitarian, democratic, and ethical society where Arabs, Kurds, and Syriacs — along with Muslims, Christians and Yazidis — all live peacefully side by side and where women are treated equal to men.

In justifying this egregious attack on northern Syria, Erdogan used a common refrain. The PYD and the Syrian Kurds, he said, are the same as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), making them terrorists.

Erdogan recently repeated this allegation, saying that he is “seriously saddened” by television footage showing U.S. military forces operating alongside what he considers a terrorist insignia — our flag.

We are not the PKK, no matter how much Erdogan wishes it were so, and it is not difficult to explain why.

Modern Kurdish groups can trace their political philosophies to one of two founding figures: Mustapha Barzani and Abdullah Ocalan. The fundamental distinction between the two is that while Barzani, the father of the current president of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Massoud Barzani, called for building a nationalist Kurdish state based on aristocracy and the rule of a few, Ocalan called for a socialist state where all were equal. Over time, Ocalan evolved his ideas from socialism to federalism, believing that a democracy where power is decentralized is the best way to protect both individual and collective freedoms.

The influences of these figures and ideas can be seen today. Iraq’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) springs from the Barzani school of thought, and as a result the KRG is ruled by a few, with power and wealth concentrated in the hands of the Barzani family and its friends. Ocalan’s school of thought, on the other hand, extends to the PYD, Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and the PKK, as well as other groups in Iraq and Iran. All these groups have implemented Ocalan’s ideas differently and pursued different aims, as we interact with different geopolitical players.

We don’t deny our relationships with all Kurdish parties in the four parts of Kurdistan (spread across present-day Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Iraq), as we don’t deny our connection to Ocalan. In fact, as I write this, I am proud to say I have a photo of Ocalan on my desk next to me. Ocalan’s views and philosophy are at the core of how we govern the Northern Syrian Federation, or Rojava. And they are why, under our control, northern Syria has become a model — respecting the rights of minority groups and women, and ensuring that individual and collective freedoms are not only protected but empowered.

We also don’t deny that PKK also traces its school of thought back to Ocalan. However, their implementation of his teachings differs greatly from ours, and their political circumstances do as well. These distinctions are important, however much Erdogan wishes the world to ignore them. We can share a founding philosophical father without being the same organization. Having different leadership, different members, and publicly stating we are different — as we are doing in this article and have done numerous times in the past — should be a clear indication as to our intent. Simply put, we are our own organization, and we are proud of that.

As Kurds, we of course sympathize with our brothers and sisters in Turkey. Many of their towns are divided along our border, partly residing in Turkey and partly in northern Syria. Historically, many Syrian Kurds joined the struggle in Turkey and were martyred there. Equally, some Kurds from Turkey and Iraq came to Syria to join the heroic resistance of Kobani against the Islamic State, and were martyred in Rojava. The PKK offered its help to Kobani, as did the United States.

It pains us to see those on the Turkish side of the border suffer from oppression and fear under Erdogan. But that is not our struggle, and we have said publicly and will say again that our territory and resources are not going to be used by the PKK or any other groups fighting Turkey. We don’t interfere in the domestic affairs of neighboring countries, and we expect other countries to do the same.

The fact that Kurdish towns are divided between countries is part of the complexity of our region. Yes, this nuance is difficult for those outside our region to understand, but it is critical. If observers or policymakers fail to grasp it, they will be led to believe false blanket statements — such as the ones Erdogan makes — where he equates us with PKK.

For Erdogan, the fact that the Syrian Kurds are not the PKK represents an inconvenient truth...

...as problems in Turkey continue to grow, his appetite for conflict in Syria will similarly escalate. This was not the first time he bombed us, and it will not be the last. Each time he does, he will call us terrorists and accuse us of being PKK.

Until Erdogan’s lies are exposed, it will remain convenient for him to engage in this duplicity. But this is the truth: We are not PKK, no matter how often Erdogan says otherwise.

Emphasis added. Take with a crack cocaine-sized grain of salt.

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 06:23 AM
Is he a serving U.S. soldier or a volunteer from the U.S.?

Serving...

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 06:32 AM
Azor...now tell me that this US President does not have some serious issues..

If the story is correct and it is as it is being leaked by the US IC....then this President has committed a serious security violation and is liable for that under US Federal Law...

Running his NSA McMaster out to deny it is a complete farce as McMaster is still a full time General and will do what he is told by any US President....

You just cannot leak highly classified HUMINT intel to anyone especially the Russians when the source can be easily identified and eliminated by IS....SIMPLY in the name of trying to impress the Russians....

National security experts: Trump's sharing classified info with Russia 'may breach his oath of office'

IF it is true what was revealed.... it will be easy for the GRU/SVR/FSB to deduce exactly which deep HUMINT source is providing the info that Trump quoted....THIS IS SERIOUS regardless of which person one voted for....

It is extremely hard to get a solid deep agent into IS/AQ only to have him/her BURNED by Trump based simply on his ego....

EXAMPLE in 1987 in Celle Germany there was a shoot out between Federal Police and three RAF terrorist...one killed, one wounded and one got away in the hectic...

The one wounded turned out to be a very deep agent and a member of RAF for over 8 long years...burned because one agency did not check with the other before the capture attempt....that was the only agent that ever got that deep inside RAF...

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 06:39 AM
Azor...now tell me that this US President does not have some serious issues..

If the story is correct and it is as it is being leaked by the US IC....then this President has committed a serious security violation and is liable for that under US Federal Law...

Running his NSA McMaster out to deny it is a complete farce as McMaster is still a full time General and will do what he is told by any US President....

You just cannot leak highly classified HUMINT intel to anyone especially the Russians when the source can be easily identified and eliminated by IS....SIMPLY in the name of trying to impress the Russians....

National security experts: Trump's sharing classified info with Russia 'may breach his oath of office'

IF it is true what was revealed.... it will be easy for the GRU/SVR/FSB to deduce exactly which deep HUMINT source is providing the info that Trump quoted....THIS IS SERIOUS regardless of which person one voted for....

It is extremely hard to get a solid deep agent into IS/AQ only to have him/her BURNED by Trump based simply on his ego....

EXAMPLE in 1987 in Celle Germany there was a shoot out between Federal Police and three RAF terrorist...one killed, one wounded and one got away in the hectic...

The one wounded turned out to be a very deep agent and a member of RAF for over 8 long years...burned because one agency did not check with the other before the capture attempt....that was the only agent that ever got that deep inside RAF...

REMEMBER this statement from a Republican Congressman....

Darrell Issa‏
Verified account
#
@DarrellIssa
What do I say to the marines in my district when Hillary Clinton handles classified information in a careless way yet has no ramifications?


President Trump revealed highly classified information to Russian officials during a meeting last week at the White House, two US officials confirmed Monday to BuzzFeed News.
The meeting included Russia's ambassador, Sergey Kislyak, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The disclosures were first reported by the Washington Post, which cited current and former US officials who said the information was considered so sensitive that some details had been withheld from American allies and was restricted within the US government.
Two US officials who were briefed on Trump’s disclosures last week confirmed to BuzzFeed News the veracity of the Washington Post report, with one noting that “it’s far worse than what has already been reported.” The official was referring to the extent of the classified intelligence information Trump disclosed to the Russian ambassador and foreign minister.
The information Trump shared included intelligence on an ISIS plot that had been passed to the US by a partner, which was not identified. But Trump's disclosure was considered a potential blow to the intelligence-sharing arrangement, and White House officials reportedly moved quickly to contain the fallout.
At least one member of the Senate Intelligence Committee was briefed on Trump’s disclosures, an intelligence committee staffer said. Sen. Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the committee, was not briefed, according to his office. Other members of the committee also said they did not receive a briefing.

FYI, McMaster didn't deny the Intel was passed to RIS -- only that it didn't contain TS+ S&M. Wake up, stop lying.

Nobody in intel circles is taking McMaster's "denial" seriously. He's a good soldier following orders. Price you pay for working for Trump.

Confirmation that intel Trump gave to RIS was TS/SAP information obtained from a US ally re #ISIS terrorist plans.

It's hard to ask our military and intelligence community to risk their lives for intelligence if Trump is just going to blab to our enemies.

Don't forget that Russian MEDIA was in the White House with them at the time! And that this specifiic Russian state news corp Tass, was involved in a New York Spy ring-

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 07:42 AM
Azor...so now will you finally stop defending Trump and his failed Syrian policies as there are none....


Deputy national security advisor Dina Powell has denied the story as false. Notably, national security advisor General H.R. McMaster limited his denial to the fact that, “At no time were any intelligence sources or methods discussed and no military operations were disclosed that were not already known publicly.” Likewise, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has denied disclosure of any information on “sources, methods or military operations.” These are both very carefully worded statements that leave open the possibility that classified information was disclosed other than sources and methods or that classified information was disclosed which might be used as a basis to infer sources and methods not directly disclosed. Typically, policies related to the safeguarding of classified information treat both sources and methods information and information pertaining to or related to sources and methods in the same category.

Again, this statement is carefully worded. The declaration that the story “as reported” is untrue leaves plenty of room for the administration to pinpoint discrepancies in the Post story without denying the substance. And once again, McMaster does not deny that an egregious breach of national security information was revealed, merely that “intelligence sources or methods [were] discussed” and that the President “disclose[d] any military operations that were not publicly known.” The Post’s Greg Miller, one of the two reporters who broke the story, accused the White House of “playing word games” in response to McMaster’s press conference. And indeed, if McMaster meant to be denying that anything harmful was said in the Oval Office, then it is hard to understand why (as the Post reports) “senior White House officials took steps to contain the damage, placing calls to the CIA and the National Security Agency,” or whythe Post agreed not to publish certain details of the plot discussed in the Oval Office after “officials” warned that doing so would “jeopardize important intelligence capabilities."

There may be disclosures yet to come. According to one current U.S. official quoted in Buzzfeed, the situation is “far worse than what has already been reported.” The New York Times writes that “sharing the information without the express permission of the ally who provided it ... could jeopardize a crucial intelligence-sharing relationship.”

This is perhaps the gravest allegation of presidential misconduct in the scandal-ridden four months of the Trump administration.

IF I had ever openly stated what I knew on intel like this dumb move by Trump due to stroking his own ego I would have ended up in prison for a minimum of 10 years....

REMEMBER I never did say I was in a SF unit in Berlin until 1 JAN 2015....THIRTY years later (DEC 1984 when it was deactivated) and only when the DoD unclassified our existence.....BUT NEVER declassified our missions nor our training, tactics and techniques.....AND the President of the US cannot keep his mouth shut????

Trump has no earthly idea about intel nor security EVEN AFTER constantly bashing Clinton and her email server....so did his rants of "lock her up" now apply to him????

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 07:50 AM
Reminder: Our NATO allies were terrified of Trump's Russia ties even before he passed TS+ to the Kremlin in the WH.
http://observer.com/2017/05/lennart-meri-conference-tallinn-putin-elections/#

L'Affaire Russe is the perfect Trump story. It's got rampant narcissism, an inability 2 shut up, 0 regard 4 laws+norms + profound stupidity.

What cowardice looks like: McMaster bashes solid reporting while aides privately urge Post to withhold details that'd prove Post was right.

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 08:13 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/15/opinion/trump-classified-data.html?_r=0

When the World is Led by a Child


He is thus the all-time record-holder of the Dunning-Kruger effect, the phenomenon in which the incompetent person is too incompetent to understand his own incompetence. Trump thought he’d be celebrated for firing James Comey. He thought his press coverage would grow wildly positive once he won the nomination. He is perpetually surprised because reality does not comport with his fantasies.


“We badly want to understand Trump, to grasp him,” David Roberts writes in Vox. “It might give us some sense of control, or at least an ability to predict what he will do next. But what if there’s nothing to understand? What if there is no there there?”
And out of that void comes a carelessness that quite possibly betrayed an intelligence source, and endangered a country.

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 08:28 AM
John Schindler

@20committee
I told you 3 months ago #NSA was withholding some very sensitive intel from the Trump WH. Now you understand why.
http://observer.com/2017/02/donald-trump-administration-mike-flynn-russian-embassy/#

Russian senator on alleged Trump leak to Lavrov: "Sergei Viktorovich is a gifted person… but this is the first time I heard he’s a spy too."

Paul Ryan‏
Verified account
@SpeakerRyan

Individuals who are "extremely careless" with classified information should be denied further access to such info.

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 12:13 PM
Azor...so now will you finally stop defending Trump and his failed Syrian policies as there are none....



Again, this statement is carefully worded. The declaration that the story “as reported” is untrue leaves plenty of room for the administration to pinpoint discrepancies in the Post story without denying the substance. And once again, McMaster does not deny that an egregious breach of national security information was revealed, merely that “intelligence sources or methods [were] discussed” and that the President “disclose[d] any military operations that were not publicly known.” The Post’s Greg Miller, one of the two reporters who broke the story, accused the White House of “playing word games” in response to McMaster’s press conference. And indeed, if McMaster meant to be denying that anything harmful was said in the Oval Office, then it is hard to understand why (as the Post reports) “senior White House officials took steps to contain the damage, placing calls to the CIA and the National Security Agency,” or whythe Post agreed not to publish certain details of the plot discussed in the Oval Office after “officials” warned that doing so would “jeopardize important intelligence capabilities."

There may be disclosures yet to come. According to one current U.S. official quoted in Buzzfeed, the situation is “far worse than what has already been reported.” The New York Times writes that “sharing the information without the express permission of the ally who provided it ... could jeopardize a crucial intelligence-sharing relationship.”

This is perhaps the gravest allegation of presidential misconduct in the scandal-ridden four months of the Trump administration.

IF I had ever openly stated what I knew on intel like this dumb move by Trump due to stroking his own ego I would have ended up in prison for a minimum of 10 years....

REMEMBER I never did say I was in a SF unit in Berlin until 1 JAN 2015....THIRTY years later (DEC 1984 when it was deactivated) and only when the DoD unclassified our existence.....BUT NEVER declassified our missions nor our training, tactics and techniques.....AND the President of the US cannot keep his mouth shut????

Trump has no earthly idea about intel nor security EVEN AFTER constantly bashing Clinton and her email server....so did his rants of "lock her up" now apply to him????

We have inside 24 hours gone from Trump declaring this Washington Post article "fake news"

TO "I have the right to do it".......

Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account

@realDonaldTrump
As President I wanted to share with Russia (at an openly scheduled W.H. meeting) which I have the absolute right to do, facts pertaining....to terrorism and airline flight safety. Humanitarian reasons, plus I want Russia to greatly step up their fight against ISIS & terrorism.

BUT WAIT...this is not the typical Trump tweeting style....someone wrote it for him....

BUT Trump does not have the right to openly and completely violate US National Security and to ignore Federal Security Regulations and Laws.....

OR to risk the life of an undercover field agent working for an allied security service....JUST to impress someone......

ANYONE who fully understands the Russian role in supporting Assad, PKK, IS and Iran knows if they could identify the undercover agent they would kill him....

SINCE WHEN has the WH Oval Office become a SCIF for Russian visitors to get US intel updates

Gen. McMaster, Monday night: "It didn't happen."
President Trump, Tuesday morning: Yes it did.

"That person is likely dead." - @JulietteKayyem on CNN about source who infiltrated ISIS who the President (THE PRESIDENT) just compromised

And one senior Nato diplomat quoted by Reuters said: "If true, this is not going to instill confidence in allies already wary of sharing the most sensitive information."


But he added: "Our story says that the nature of the information provided would have allowed the Russians to 'reverse engineer' to discover the sources and methods. He said so much that they could figure it out."

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 12:20 PM
Suweida: Many pro-#Assad forces and heavy weapons arrived in #Suweida in preparation for attacks against #FSA.