Russo-Ukraine War 2017-2018

[OUTLAW 09]

Maimed partisan says Russia can’t leave Donbas - there are too many witnesses of war crimes for the Hague
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1499268442#

IMHO...this is actually a true statement....

[OUTLAW 09]

"The revolution was never about Russia; it was about making Ukraine better."
http://www.newsweek.com/nolan-peterson-what-freedom-means-ukraine-631696#

[OUTLAW 09]

OTD in 2014: After their escape from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the Girkin's armed GRU gang enters Donetsk

[Azor]

I actually referenced two articles on Ukraine’s military: one at ISW and one at DID. If your issue is with the latter, note that it refers to the full report in the Journal of Slavic Military Studies that is behind a USD $45 per article paywall. Did you think the article would reveal the recipe to the secret sauce without a credit card?

No disputes here with respect to U.S. ground forces training and equipping since U.S. doctrine became “Iraq First”. The very fact that high-end F-22 production was drastically curtailed in favor of low-end MRAP vehicles during this same period, is very, very telling. Our issues with Obama aside, he does deserve credit for steering the military back toward high-end warfighting against peer and near-peer competitors despite harsh budget cuts, and for appointing officials such as Carter, Work and Roper to the DOD, who were focused on the next (3rd) qualitative offset.

However, the Army is part of the Joint Force. Whatever its organic weaknesses, it is backed by the best air and sea-based precision-strike power in the world. The Army is now promoting "Multi-Domain Battle" and attempting to take the lead in deterring Russian aggression against NATO’s eastern flank, both in order to preserve its access to funding and influence, despite being the biggest pig at the trough from 2001-on.

I read the RAND study on Russia occupying the Baltic republics within 36-60 hours (https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf), and it made the fatal error of ignoring those U.S. assets outside EUCOM. Assuming only 40% of naval and strategic bomber assets facing the Atlantic (due to the Pacific Pivot), assuming current readiness levels, and assuming the seven-day notice from the original RAND scenario, the U.S. should be able to utterly saturate Russian A2/AD assets in the Baltic region with cruise missiles from a standoff range, even before engaging with B-2s or calling in other NATO assets. Yet, the U.S. Army would have us believe that it needs armored divisions in Eastern Europe to defend NATO.

It must be said that wherever American strategic bombers, attack submarines or cruise missile submarines can get within 1,000 km of in under seven days, there already exists an A2/AD zone in being, to paraphrase Lord Torrington. It must be further said, that despite the consternation that Desert Storm provoked in Moscow and Beijing, every aspect of that campaign’s execution should have indicated that it was not a model to be applied to Russia or China. Why? Because of the sheer scale of the commitment despite Iraq's weaknesses, and fear of failure. Yet despite Sino-Russian efforts over the past twenty years to counter American warfighting, neither would be able to “bite and hold” a piece of territory nominally defended by the U.S. without relying upon forces operating within their own borders. Again, we return to the Cold War maxim that a limited war cannot be assumed.

As I recall, it was mainly the volunteer battalions that overcame the insurgents in the Summer of 2014, who were beginning to lay siege to the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, and who were driven back by regular Russian forces at Ilovaisk and other points. Many volunteer battalion commanders heaped scorn on Kiev for not supporting their battalions when they were encircled at Ilovaisk. The struggle for Donetsk Airport may have lasted longer than Stalingrad, but then again Operation Enduring Freedom has lasted longer than World Wars I and II combined, and American involvement in the Vietnam War lasted more than twenty years...

As for the U.S. military, it is being trained to fight blind and deaf, but still as a Joint Force. The fighting in Donbas is a very unique way of war, given that Ukraine has no combined-arms capabilities and that Russia wants to maintain as much plausible deniability as possible. I highly doubt that if U.S. soldiers without insignia appeared in South Ossetia, the Russians would not engage them in full-scale and combined-arms fighting. To regard the Donbas War as a model to follow would be sheer folly, and play into Russian tactical and operational unpredictability. However, there are lessons to be learned, such as how to survive massive bombardment without communications and therefore fire support.

Lastly, the term “Spetsnaz” is not necessarily a mark of quality, given that most units with that designation are nowhere near “Tier One” or the “Special Mission Units” of the U.S.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for an excellent commentary.

Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/07/mh17-three-years-later-what-have-we-learned/

It links to a Bellingcat report, which opens with:
Today, we are releasing a report summarizing all major open source evidence surrounding the downing of MH17 in an easy-to-read 73-page survey. This report is broken into thirteen chapters, summarizing the circumstances that led to the downing of MH17, information on the Buk missile launcher that downed the passenger plane, a summary of alternative scenarios regarding the downing, and other essential areas of information.Link:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/07/17/mh17-open-source-investigation-three-years-later/

There is a closed thread on MH17 from July 2014, which has 253 posts, with 63k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=20951

[Azor]

From the BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40712385

Selected Excerpt:

"Defensive weapons, ones that would allow Ukraine to defend itself, and to take out tanks for example, would actually to help" to stop Russia threatening Ukraine, Mr Volker said in a BBC interview.

"I'm not again predicting where we go on this, that's a matter for further discussion and decision, but I think that argument that it would be provocative to Russia or emboldening of Ukraine is just getting it backwards," he added.

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "lurker" this Ebook is available, behind a registration wall, dated August 2017 (23 pgs) and the blurb says:
The 2014 Russian Invasion of Ukraine altered not only the future of Eastern Europe but the course of modern warfare as well. Since then, Ukraine has become a deadly testing ground for new battlefield tactics and technologies. This eBook takes a look at Russia's new ways of war with the hope that it can help next-generation military leaders understand and deter a rising new threat to Western peace and security.Link:http://www.defenseone.com/assets/lessons-russian-front/portal/

[AdamG]

NIEUWEGEIN, The Netherlands -- An international criminal investigation into the MH17 tragedy in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has determined the Malaysia Airlines passenger jet was shot down by a Buk antiaircraft missile fired from separatist controlled territory in Ukraine.

The Joint Investigation Team (JIT) further determined that the missile system was brought into Ukraine from Russia shortly before the tragedy and then smuggled back to Russia shortly afterward.

Presenting the JIT's interim findings on September 28, the team's head, Fred Westerbeke, said the investigation had ruled out all other possible explanations for MH17's crash, which killed all 298 people on board.

https://www.rferl.org/a/mh17-criminal-probe-russia-buk-ukraine-jit/28018109.html

[davidbfpo]

Alas our regular reporter on this war departed the Forum, although a few posts have appeared. I caught this Soufan Group commentary today, which is helpful, especially this one point:
Four years on though, no major military operations have taken place since the Minsk II Peace Accord on February 2014

It starts with:


The armed conflict in Ukraine has received scant attention in the Western media lately, however, tensions have recently increased between the U.S. and Russia.
The U.S. is bolstering Ukraine’s armed forces with new technology and joint training exercises, actions interpreted by Russia as provocations.
Russia is sure to increase its contribution of troops and materiel in Ukraine if NATO continues to ramp up its military and diplomatic presence.
The front lines witness daily clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian armed forces, leading to casualties and sparking concerns of further escalation.

Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-increasing-tensions-between-the-u-s-and-russia-in-ukraine/

[davidbfpo]

A BBC News report after a clash between Russian and Ukrainian vessels - over access to the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait, now with a land bridge over.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46333976

A more detailed report via REFL.
Link:https://www.rferl.org/a/sea-of-troubles-azov-emerging-as-tinderbox-in-russia-ukraine-conflict/29417753.html

[AdamG]

Russia has opened fire on Ukrainian ships and captured three vessels in a major escalation of tensions off the coast of Crimea. Three sailors have been wounded after the Ukrainian navy said two artillery boats were hit by the strikes in the Black Sea. Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko called an emergency session of his war cabinet and said he will propose that parliament declare martial law.
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-fires-at-ukraine-ships-in-black-sea-11563775


KIEV (Reuters) - The Ukrainian navy said Russian special forces had seized three of its ships in the Black Sea and that two of its sailors had been wounded in the incident. It made the statement after earlier saying that Russia had opened fire on the ships, which Russia blocked from passing through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov. There was no immediate response to the allegation from Russia.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-ships/ukraine-says-russia-seizes-three-of-its-ships-in-black-sea-idUSKCN1NU0YK

[AdamG]

What triggered the military confrontation in Black Sea? l Inside Story - Al Jazeera English

Relations between Russia and Ukraine the countries are still raw after Russia annexed Crimea four years ago. And Moscow's since been backing pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine where fighting continues.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKZE0pWtaL8

[davidbfpo]

That is a lot of metal:
Satellite imagery from Google Earth taken on November shows hundreds of Russian main battle tanks at a new military base on the outskirts of the Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.The large-scale military base only 18 kilometers away from the border with toward rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine. Images show hundreds of main battle tank like as T-64 and also T-62M, while a thousand military trucks, artillery systems tankers are located slightly higher.


Link:https://defence-blog.com/army/satellite-imagery-shows-hundreds-of-russian-tanks-near-the-border-with-ukraine.html/amp

Curiously I recall the Ukrainian Army a few years ago kept its most modern tanks inside buildings during the winter.

[davidbfpo]

A comprehensive demolition job on my last post, alongside the broader question will Russia attack?

A "taster" on the satellite photos, previous post:
The problem is that these are mostly T-62 variants (M/MV), which have long been retired from the Russian military, and are not in service with Russian trained separatist forces either. This tank last saw service during the Russia-Georgia War of 2008, and was considered obsolete decades ago. There is no Russian unit that fields T-62 tanks today, or T-64 tanks for that matter. The Russian armed forces use this tank for target practice during major military exercises, as was the case in recently held Vostok 2018.....Note the rest of the vehicle park at the base, and the contingent, remains the same after the arrival of these tanks, which suggests that they are here for storage and not a force addition.
Link:https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2018/12/26/is-a-russian-military-operation-against-ukraine-likely-in-the-near-future/