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davidbfpo
04-30-2017, 11:57 AM
Time for a new thread once more. The previous thread January-April 2017 had 1,093 posts and 61.7k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=24850

The 2016 September-December thread had 1,196 posts and 39.7k views.

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 06:35 PM
16 #Ukraine's defenders killed, 102 wounded in 1341 attacks by #Russia's proxies.

Bitter results of Easter ceasefire signed by Kremlin!

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 06:36 PM
Donbas over the last day.
54 enemy attacks.
1 Ukrainian soldier KIA.
7 WIA.

OUTLAW 09
05-01-2017, 06:49 PM
Amazing scoop from @tmgneff. Eurofascist who fought alongside sanctioned Russian forces in Ukraine now a US soldier.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/05/01/he-fought-with-russian-backed-militants-in-ukraine-now-hes-a-u-s-soldier/?utm_term=.d01a770123bf …

OUTLAW 09
05-03-2017, 06:15 PM
3 Ukr soldiers killed in the Svitlodarsk bulge today. Their bodies can't be evacuated yet bc of strong enemy fire.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 06:25 AM
04:50 #Svitlodarsk bulge: Just now they have said good morning with loud and strong "greetings"

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 06:26 AM
What everyone seems to have totally forgotten.....

Article 72 of the USSR's constitution gave each Republic of USSR the right to leave USSR. Just not the ability.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 07:53 AM
Ukraine reports 9 WIAs amid 52 enemy attacks in last day

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 01:51 PM
Russia, which illegally seized @Crimea by military force, now complains #Ukraine won't provide Crimea electricity.

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 04:25 PM
The Black Tulips - unsung heroes of war in Ukraine, helping loved ones find bodies of fallen soldiers for burial

http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-exhumation/28467913.html#

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 05:10 PM
RFE/RL shows moment OSCE vehicle explodes in occupied Donbas killing an American monitor
https://www.unian.info/war/1907726-rfe-rl-shows-moment-osce-vehicle-explodes-in-occupied-donbas.html#

OUTLAW 09
05-04-2017, 05:31 PM
Russia, which illegally seized @Crimea by military force, now complains #Ukraine won't provide Crimea electricity.

Russia's Zakharova,Crimea: energy blockade by Ukrainian "extremists" -an "act of terrorism"

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 07:49 AM
Ukraine reports 58 enemy attacks, 10 WIAs in last day

OUTLAW 09
05-05-2017, 04:21 PM
Russians demanded the stop of Ukr boat "bc Ukrainian ship is in the Russian Black Sea"

Russian military vessel tries to seize Ukrainian search & rescue boat in The Black Sea.

Russian ships attempted to seize Ukr rescuers boat near Skadovsk
pic.twitter.com/pQnNGKIp6S

Incredible arrogance by Russia

Russian forces used 2s7 Pion howitzers near Kryms'ke
pic.twitter.com/00qTxn7vrQ

Russian and Ukrainian military of JCCC came under fire from Russian militants near Bezimenne

In Zaporizhiye saboteurs that attempted to derail a train sentenced to 10 & 11 years in jail
pic.twitter.com/nLWJP2BqOI

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 08:23 AM
Banditry from Russia-occupied Donbas crawls back to Russia - journalist
https://www.unian.info/war/1910084-banditry-from-russia-occupied-donbas-crawls-back-to-russia-journalist.html#

OUTLAW 09
05-06-2017, 09:51 AM
5 Ukrainian soldiers WIA amid 63 recorded armed provocations by Russia's troops in Donbas.

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 09:35 AM
Russia->Create legal black hole in South Ossetia. Raid Ukr businesses in Donetsk. Register them in S Ossetia.
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3283539

OUTLAW 09
05-07-2017, 10:48 AM
Yanukovych stole equivalent of Ukraine's state budget as president, - prosecutor's office
http://dlvr.it/P4rlcX

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 05:44 AM
A Bloody Start To The Week In Ukraine; Ceasefire Violations Up 15% Over Previous Week
http://bit.ly/2pu6kkV

Skirmish on #Yasynuvata outskirts since early in the morning, BTRs, mortars, GLs.

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 07:34 AM
One Ukrainian soldier was killed, nine were wounded in 50 attacks by Russian Hybrid Army yesterday

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 08:03 AM
Russian terrorists in Donetsk parade their Strela-10 small-range SAMs.
Not a single person asks where the hell did they get them?

OUTLAW 09
05-09-2017, 05:54 PM
CEPA‏#@cepa
"#Russia deceives the West by disguising its movements effectively," write @dpjankowski & Col. Kowalik
https://goo.gl/JvP1bf

Azor
05-09-2017, 10:25 PM
...you actually mean the following...a country seeking it's own identity after Soviet suppression since 1918 right…then German suppression and then again Soviet suppression and then Russian oligarch theft of the entire State budget for one year...that "nationalism"??

…And eastern Ukraine...a GRU exported war led by a GRU COL who is alive and well in St. Petersburg after the deaths of most of the 14 that started that war and crossed with him from Crimea into eastern Ukraine...as well as a number of Ukrainian criminals who joined him in 2014...

Actually, Muscovite oppression of Ukrainians has been ongoing for more than three centuries. Despite all of the killings and deportations during the Civil War and then Stalin’s tyranny, the issue of ethnic and national identity east of the Dnieper River is a thorny one.

Alternatively named the Wild Fields, Sloboda Ukraine and Left Bank Ukraine, eastern Ukraine was a sparsely-settled no-man’s land for centuries after the first Mongol invasion of Europe in the 13th Century. Despite the Mongols’ eventual defeat, this region was still subject to Mongol and Tatar depredations and was on the route that the Crimean Tatars took when raiding north toward Moscow. Crimea was only finally conquered in the late 18th Century, and both Crimea and eastern Ukraine were settled by a blend of ethnic Russians as well as ethnic Ukrainians from Right Bank Ukraine, where Ukrainian national identity had formed. Therefore, it would be false to claim that Ukrainian citizens in eastern Ukraine and Crimea are as Ukrainian as those in central and western Ukraine, or that there was continuity in Crimea and Donbas from Kievan Rus to present. Many in the east weakly identify as Ukrainian, a minority identify as Russian and still others identify as “Soviet”. Nor are the Dnieper and Sivash exact demarcation lines for identity, as there is considerable spillover.

As for the armed uprisings for Cossack independence in the 17th Century and Ukrainian independence in the 20th (during World War II), both saw Cossacks and Ukrainians, respectively, spend more time slaughtering Jewish civilians followed by Polish civilians, than fighting the forces of occupation, be they Polish, Russian, Soviet or German. All violent resistance movements have their share of criminals and criminal acts, but it is disturbing to see the worst of Ukraine celebrated merely to make some Ukrainians feel good about their history. Ukrainians did not meaningfully participate in the mass anti-Soviet movements of 1989 to 1991 that liberated Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, East Germany and the Baltics. Whereas these nations were glad to see the Russians leave and to rebuild pride in their suppressed communities, Ukrainians were more circumspect until late 2013.

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 04:11 AM
Actually, Muscovite oppression of Ukrainians has been ongoing for more than three centuries. Despite all of the killings and deportations during the Civil War and then Stalin’s tyranny, the issue of ethnic and national identity east of the Dnieper River is a thorny one.

Alternatively named the Wild Fields, Sloboda Ukraine and Left Bank Ukraine, eastern Ukraine was a sparsely-settled no-man’s land for centuries after the first Mongol invasion of Europe in the 13th Century. Despite the Mongols’ eventual defeat, this region was still subject to Mongol and Tatar depredations and was on the route that the Crimean Tatars took when raiding north toward Moscow. Crimea was only finally conquered in the late 18th Century, and both Crimea and eastern Ukraine were settled by a blend of ethnic Russians as well as ethnic Ukrainians from Right Bank Ukraine, where Ukrainian national identity had formed. Therefore, it would be false to claim that Ukrainian citizens in eastern Ukraine and Crimea are as Ukrainian as those in central and western Ukraine, or that there was continuity in Crimea and Donbas from Kievan Rus to present. Many in the east weakly identify as Ukrainian, a minority identify as Russian and still others identify as “Soviet”. Nor are the Dnieper and Sivash exact demarcation lines for identity, as there is considerable spillover.

As for the armed uprisings for Cossack independence in the 17th Century and Ukrainian independence in the 20th (during World War II), both saw Cossacks and Ukrainians, respectively, spend more time slaughtering Jewish civilians followed by Polish civilians, than fighting the forces of occupation, be they Polish, Russian, Soviet or German. All violent resistance movements have their share of criminals and criminal acts, but it is disturbing to see the worst of Ukraine celebrated merely to make some Ukrainians feel good about their history. Ukrainians did not meaningfully participate in the mass anti-Soviet movements of 1989 to 1991 that liberated Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, East Germany and the Baltics. Whereas these nations were glad to see the Russians leave and to rebuild pride in their suppressed communities, Ukrainians were more circumspect until late 2013.

WHY were they circumspect.....Russian control over Ukraine as well as overt Russian corruption was far deeper than any of the countries you refer to....and if one looks at the reforms that Ukraine is slowly moving on in fact they have made more advances in those areas than in the early years of those countries after they left UdSSR....

No single country that you referred to had a President that via corruption left office in the middle of the night with a net wealth worth the entire State budget for one year....

And if you look at the economics..right now Ukraine growth in the face of conducting defensive war operations ad rebuilding a military out of nothing and inside two years....and the fact that they could feed the world coupled with being probably the coming IT powerhouse.....they are advancing very well....

Even Poland is struggling right now.....and incomes in say Slovenia or the Czech Republic are not growing as fast...

OUTLAW 09
05-10-2017, 09:16 AM
Militants launched 70 #attacks on Ukrainian troops in #Donbas in last #day.

Azor
05-10-2017, 11:47 PM
WHY were they circumspect.....Russian control over Ukraine as well as overt Russian corruption was far deeper than any of the countries you refer to....and if one looks at the reforms that Ukraine is slowly moving on in fact they have made more advances in those areas than in the early years of those countries after they left UdSSR....

No single country that you referred to had a President that via corruption left office in the middle of the night with a net wealth worth the entire State budget for one year....

And if you look at the economics..right now Ukraine growth in the face of conducting defensive war operations ad rebuilding a military out of nothing and inside two years....and the fact that they could feed the world coupled with being probably the coming IT powerhouse.....they are advancing very well....

Even Poland is struggling right now.....and incomes in say Slovenia or the Czech Republic are not growing as fast...

I notice that you have completely avoided my comments on Ukrainian ethnicity and nationalism...

Are you out to lunch? Poland has six times Ukraine's GDP per capita PPP and almost double ita GDP growth.

Ukraine was a corrupt society under Yanukovych, Yuschenko, Yanukovych again and now Poroshenko, the latter being in the early stages of combating Ukraine's endemic corruption on both sides of the Dnieper.

Ukraine wants to join the EU to follow in Poland's footsteps, get subsidies from the wealthier countries (uncertain with the UK's departure) and have access to job opportunities and social benefits for its citizens in other countries. We'll see how long the pro-Western sentiment lasts when Brussels no longer has deep pockets...

OUTLAW 09
05-11-2017, 05:01 AM
I notice that you have completely avoided my comments on Ukrainian ethnicity and nationalism...

Are you out to lunch? Poland has six times Ukraine's GDP per capita PPP and almost double ita GDP growth.

Ukraine was a corrupt society under Yanukovych, Yuschenko, Yanukovych again and now Poroshenko, the latter being in the early stages of combating Ukraine's endemic corruption on both sides of the Dnieper.

Ukraine wants to join the EU to follow in Poland's footsteps, get subsidies from the wealthier countries (uncertain with the UK's departure) and have access to job opportunities and social benefits for its citizens in other countries. We'll see how long the pro-Western sentiment lasts when Brussels no longer has deep pockets...

"Out to lunch" another strange comment from you as is normal....

Appears you have not been in Poland in the last few days...entire areas where the unemployment is over 23% forcing many of the men to become truck drivers to feed their families..if you drive say the A12 98% of all truckers and long haulers are privately owned and Polish..gas/diesel used to be really cheap on the border but now is only a few cents less that German prices....the overall cost of living has risen massively just on the last six months and if you live in around Warsaw..you are paying London apartment costs.....a lot of their problems were swept under the rug because they did not join the Euro but lately under the new government they have lost control of the currency and now their living costs are now matching Euro living costs in say Berlin...Berliners would drive on the weekends to shop for food and clothing as the Polish prices were cheap when compared to Euro prices...that consumer tourism is now completely dead....

Not so sure you have been following the Ukrainian economy as close as you should be..even and that is strange the IMF is surprised by the actual strengthening economy and the next boost will be with the coming large scale land reform which will open up the farming sector to become a massive food engine on the grain side rivalling the US.

So out to lunch...check your economic figures for the last six months and then compare it to those of say Ukraine 2013 or even say 1998...

Corruption has been the hallmark of all former Soviet countries as it is the exact way the SU and now Russia has held them captive...money and tons of it to corrupt leaders..or why do you think Maidan occurred...

Azor
05-11-2017, 04:18 PM
"Out to lunch" another strange comment from you as is normal....

Appears you have not been in Poland in the last few days...entire areas where the unemployment is over 23% forcing many of the men to become truck drivers to feed their families..if you drive say the A12 98% of all truckers and long haulers are privately owned and Polish..gas/diesel used to be really cheap on the border but now is only a few cents less that German prices....the overall cost of living has risen massively just on the last six months and if you live in around Warsaw..you are paying London apartment costs.....a lot of their problems were swept under the rug because they did not join the Euro but lately under the new government they have lost control of the currency and now their living costs are now matching Euro living costs in say Berlin...Berliners would drive on the weekends to shop for food and clothing as the Polish prices were cheap when compared to Euro prices...that consumer tourism is now completely dead....

Not so sure you have been following the Ukrainian economy as close as you should be..even and that is strange the IMF is surprised by the actual strengthening economy and the next boost will be with the coming large scale land reform which will open up the farming sector to become a massive food engine on the grain side rivalling the US.

So out to lunch...check your economic figures for the last six months and then compare it to those of say Ukraine 2013 or even say 1998...

Corruption has been the hallmark of all former Soviet countries as it is the exact way the SU and now Russia has held them captive...money and tons of it to corrupt leaders..or why do you think Maidan occurred...

Outlaw,

Anecdotal evidence isn’t helping your cause here. For the second time, you have dodged the questions about the Cossack and OUN/UIA crimes…

Ukrainian GDP growth in 2016, in constant prices, was Poland, Hungary and Romania, as well as the Baltic republics. The only reason growth was even this high in 2016 was due to a partial recovery from the tremendous losses suffered in 2014 and 2015. Even prior to the revolution, Ukrainian GDP growth was flat for 2012 and 2013. Ukrainian GDP per capita (nominal and PPP) has regressed to the levels around 2006 and the early 1990s. 1998? Shall we measure U.S. economic growth since the Great Depression?

The U.S. is the third or fourth largest agricultural producer, with a sector 7 to 9 times larger than that of Ukraine. The latter would have to double its productivity just to rival Canada, to say nothing of Brazil and other agricultural giants. Unless one is planning on carving out an autarkic empire in Europe that can withstand a naval blockade, the Ukrainian “breadbasket” is no longer as strategic as it was say in the 1930s and 1940s.

It is almost as though you blame Russia for Ukraine’s corruption, despite that the pro-Western Orange Revolution failed due to corruption. Ukraine’s corruption actually worsened during Yuschenko’s presidency per Transparency International, and Ukraine and Russia both have similar Corruption Index Levels at present.

Are you honestly telling me that the EU transfer payments to the new EU members and the remittances to these countries by their citizens now working in wealthier EU countries were not key considerations for Ukrainians who wanted to join the EU? Are you telling me that Ukraine’s stagnant economy and the success of the former Soviet or Warsaw Pact members that were now in the EU did not influence EuroMaidan at all? Don’t sell me the hooker with the heart of gold.

And see my response over at SWJ: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/russian-%E2%80%9Cnew-generation%E2%80%9D-warfare-theory-practice-and-lessons-for-us-strategists-0#comment-57812

It seems that you are enamored of any country confronting Russia. I assume that if Canada and Russia get into a scrap over an ice floe, that you will be declaring that Trudeau is right and Canada's participation in Afghanistan and Syria outweighs its <1% of GDP spending on defense...

Azor
05-11-2017, 05:32 PM
"Out to lunch" another strange comment from you as is normal....

Appears you have not been in Poland in the last few days...entire areas where the unemployment is over 23% forcing many of the men to become truck drivers to feed their families..if you drive say the A12 98% of all truckers and long haulers are privately owned and Polish..gas/diesel used to be really cheap on the border but now is only a few cents less that German prices....the overall cost of living has risen massively just on the last six months and if you live in around Warsaw..you are paying London apartment costs.....a lot of their problems were swept under the rug because they did not join the Euro but lately under the new government they have lost control of the currency and now their living costs are now matching Euro living costs in say Berlin...Berliners would drive on the weekends to shop for food and clothing as the Polish prices were cheap when compared to Euro prices...that consumer tourism is now completely dead...

As for your reference to Poland, I can only assume that you are upset at the PiS, which has been branded "less-than-European" by the denizens of the Berlaymont. Of course, that is code for being too Polish. An influx of four million migrants from Asia and Africa, the sprouting of new mosques, a bevy of hate speech laws and various carbon penalties should do the trick, right? Having large crime-ridden "no-go zones" in every Polish city will also ensure that Poland is less attractive as a target for Russia - the porcupine approach - and therefore also contribute to collective defense...

Azor
05-11-2017, 09:33 PM
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 62
By: Vladimir Socor

https://jamestown.org/program/putin-merkel-exchange-views-ukraine-sochi-part-one/

*Truncated for brevity*


German Chancellor Angela Merkel took the initiative to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on May 2...

In the Putin-Merkel joint news conference, however, international media interest focused heavily on the situation in Ukraine’s east and Russia’s role therein. This persistent line of questioning led Putin and Merkel to declare their respective views at some length...

Putin’s main tactical goal is to pressure Kyiv into starting political settlement negotiations with the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics”—a process leading to their de facto recognition by Ukraine and Western disengagement from the problem. Toward that end, Russia persists with attrition warfare on the ground against Ukraine while seeking to align Western diplomacy with Russia’s interpretation of the political terms of the Minsk armistice.

As he stated in Sochi, Putin envisions four initial steps in that direction:


initiating a “direct dialogue” between the “parties to the conflict,” namely Kyiv and the (as yet) “unrecognized republics”;
through that dialogue, enshrine a “special status” for Donetsk-Luhansk in the Ukrainian constitution and legislation;
work out a special electoral law applicable to those territories; and
hold local elections in Donetsk-Luhansk that would produce recognized authorities there.

Putin, however, professed to be pessimistic about this scenario. He argued that Kyiv had at one time possessed sufficient domestic leeway to comply with the political terms of the Minsk armistice [as he interprets it], but the Ukrainian government missed that chance, its domestic leeway has since then narrowed, and the prospect of a political settlement is now receding.

That “direct dialogue” means a bilateral negotiation between co-equal parties, Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk, as the first step toward recognition of the latter by the former...

Putin’s four steps are to be understood cumulatively as the first stage, and thus his interim goal, in the overall settlement process. If Kyiv and its Western partners agree to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities through elections (a scenario seriously considered in Berlin and Washington in 2015–2016), then Putin’s next stage would involve negotiations on the delimitation of powers between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk, in the framework of the special status and in the Minsk armistice sequence...

With his seeming equanimity, Putin reinforces Moscow’s recent moves that may, instead of a special status, foreshadow outright secession of the Donetsk-Luhansk territory from Ukraine...

The message to Ukraine is: either concede a negotiated special status for that territory (resulting in a state within the Ukrainian state), or accept de facto the definitive separation of that territory from Ukraine. And the message to Berlin and other Western capitals implies: either pressure Kyiv to concede the special status and elections for Donetsk-Luhansk, or watch that territory’s full secession and the collapse of a diplomatic compromise between Russia and the West...

While the Kremlin’s domestic propaganda continues depicting the Ukrainian government as lacking legitimacy, Putin no longer does so in front of foreign audiences...He seemed oblivious to the implication—which Angela Merkel instantly grasped—that an illegitimate government (if such it was) could not deliver a legitimate agreement...

For, unlike Putin, the German chancellor cannot affect indifference at the possible failure of the Minsk process. Stacked though that process is against Ukraine, the German government (on a bipartisan basis) is firmly beholden to the Minsk process, connecting its fulfillment with the lifting of sanctions on Russia...Moscow expects to wait out and ride out the sanctions.

Aiming for progress on the political implementation of the Minsk armistice...was not the ambition of German Chancellor Angela Merkel when embarking on her visit to...Sochi...

Unlike Putin’s ambivalent message...Merkel reaffirmed her insistence on the fulfillment of military and political clauses, in the sequence laid down by the armistice “agreement.”

As long, however, as Russian and proxy forces continue the attrition warfare in Ukraine’s east, thus breaching the military clauses 1, 2 and 3 of the Minsk armistice, it remains impossible to advance to the follow-up political clauses. Russia wants to enforce those clauses first, which would reverse the “agreement’s” sequence...Merkel held out the lifting of sanctions at some unspecified stage in the sequenced fulfillment of military and political clauses, by Russia and Ukraine in reciprocity.

Merkel’s remarks in Sochi reveal her conception of a road map that was discussed at the “Normandy” summit...

First, the onus is on Russia to abide by the ceasefire, so as to advance to the political stage, which constitutes Russia’s priority interest. Said Merkel, “I am asking the Russian president insistently to do his best and bring about a ceasefire. This could foster an atmosphere in Ukrainian society that would make it accept painful compromises regarding the status of the Donetsk and Luhansk territories.”

Second, “We must reach the stage at which elections are held, resulting in a legitimized leadership in the Donetsk and Luhansk territories. On this basis it will then of course be possible to hold direct talks [between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk]. For this we still need a lot of effort. We need a road map. This is on the table, a work in progress.” Merkel was alluding to the October 2016 proposed road map. On this second point there is a minor difference between Moscow and Berlin: while Moscow wants those direct talks to be held first...Merkel suggests holding those “elections” first...

Third, “Our firm intention remains to help Ukraine to regain access [sic] to its border. This step, however, must be preceded by a political process that would then lead to holding local elections [in Donetsk-Luhansk],” Merkel said. Inasmuch as all participants in the international negotiations unambiguously recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty in this territory, no elections could be deemed valid here without Ukraine’s advance consent that elections be held.

On the other hand, Kyiv is being asked to accept the holding of those “elections”...as a precondition to hypothetically gaining access to the border in that territory. That in turn would be conditional again on agreement with Donetsk-Luhansk...

That tangle of conditionalities is bound to end in a fiasco for Kyiv; and even if it tried, access to the border would still be at the discretion of Donetsk-Luhansk authorities as long as Russian forces are present there. Consenting to “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk would only strengthen their hand in negotiations (not only on border control but on all issues), without restoring Ukraine’s “access” to that border. Access is a coded word being used instead of “control.” As such it denotes that the aim has been downscaled from Ukrainian border control to a negotiated arrangement between Ukraine and the two “republics,” if legitimized and de facto recognized.

Merkel concluded her remarks in Sochi with a cryptic reference to the “Steinmeier Formula.” This formula lowers the bar for “elections” in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” to be deemed valid and their authorities as legitimate. Prior to Steinmeier’s intervention, the negotiations envisaged (based on the Minsk armistice) that those local “elections” be deemed valid only after a positive assessment by [the OSCE]...In that case, the “republics” would presumably earn a title to their special status, which Ukraine would then have to concede. The “Steinmeier Formula,” however, proposes that Ukraine bring into effect the special status temporarily, on the day when those “elections” are held (before the polls close)...

Hours before Merkel landed in Sochi, Putin warmly received the newly elected “president” of South Ossetia, Anatoly Bibilov there. Merkel did not raise that issue...the issue of Georgia’s occupied territories has practically disappeared from the international diplomatic agenda. Perhaps, Moscow reckons that Western tenacity in the case of Crimea and Donetsk-Luhansk would run out before Moscow’s tenacity would.

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 03:12 PM
Outlaw,

Anecdotal evidence isn’t helping your cause here. For the second time, you have dodged the questions about the Cossack and OUN/UIA crimes…

Ukrainian GDP growth in 2016, in constant prices, was Poland, Hungary and Romania, as well as the Baltic republics. The only reason growth was even this high in 2016 was due to a partial recovery from the tremendous losses suffered in 2014 and 2015. Even prior to the revolution, Ukrainian GDP growth was flat for 2012 and 2013. Ukrainian GDP per capita (nominal and PPP) has regressed to the levels around 2006 and the early 1990s. 1998? Shall we measure U.S. economic growth since the Great Depression?

The U.S. is the third or fourth largest agricultural producer, with a sector 7 to 9 times larger than that of Ukraine. The latter would have to double its productivity just to rival Canada, to say nothing of Brazil and other agricultural giants. Unless one is planning on carving out an autarkic empire in Europe that can withstand a naval blockade, the Ukrainian “breadbasket” is no longer as strategic as it was say in the 1930s and 1940s.

It is almost as though you blame Russia for Ukraine’s corruption, despite that the pro-Western Orange Revolution failed due to corruption. Ukraine’s corruption actually worsened during Yuschenko’s presidency per Transparency International, and Ukraine and Russia both have similar Corruption Index Levels at present.

Are you honestly telling me that the EU transfer payments to the new EU members and the remittances to these countries by their citizens now working in wealthier EU countries were not key considerations for Ukrainians who wanted to join the EU? Are you telling me that Ukraine’s stagnant economy and the success of the former Soviet or Warsaw Pact members that were now in the EU did not influence EuroMaidan at all? Don’t sell me the hooker with the heart of gold.

And see my response over at SWJ: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/russian-%E2%80%9Cnew-generation%E2%80%9D-warfare-theory-practice-and-lessons-for-us-strategists-0#comment-57812

It seems that you are enamored of any country confronting Russia. I assume that if Canada and Russia get into a scrap over an ice floe, that you will be declaring that Trudeau is right and Canada's participation in Afghanistan and Syria outweighs its <1% of GDP spending on defense...

Azor...you truly do not understand Ukraine nor what drives younger Ukrainians but maybe that is because you are in the US....

NOR have you lived within the former East Bloc before the fall of the WALL....

So now do your homework...both Ukraine and Russia were actually vying for visa free travel to EU...

Russia was on track to get it until they shot themselves in the foot...with Crimea now that will never happen.

So are you trying to sell me Russia wanted EU remittances as well??

Anybody who understands the EU joining process knows that it takes roughly 10 years and a country must fulfil 21 points before even being invited to join and Ukraine knows this..they wanted the association agreement due to open and free trade and trade preferences AND they really wanted visa free travel....

WHY..for two reasons...they really do like to travel to EU without having to be restricted to two months, X amount of money in the bank, medical coverage and lining up to get the visa from any EU Embassy...and then paying the fees for it.

BUT more importantly it symbolizes a clear and concise break from Russia and the former Soviet Union....

This issue of visa free travel is an interesting thing which you tend to overlook.......

There are documents from several GDR SED Central Committee meetings in the months proceeding the fall of the Wall and the large number of GDR refugees that were in the BRD Embassy in Prague and then their exiting to West Germany...which they openly and heatedly discussed the potential of allowing GDR citizens the right to travel for 30 days every year to the West and or allowing all the time free travel.....

WHY ...and this is where you do not know anything as you never dealt with large numbers of GDR citizens arriving in Berlin ....one of the largest complaints from them was their inability to travel to places they saw of West German TV next to the dream of getting bananas....on a regular basis that were not black or brown and from Cuba and only during Xmas....

BTW...one of the hottest fruits always on sale in former GDR is in fact still bananas...

The SED Politburo seriously thought about the free travel or 30 days but in the end rejected both ideas as they were afraid no one would return and thus eventually the Wall came down and GDR citizens were free to travel anywhere they wanted to...exactly what was being discussed in the SED Politburo...

Yes many would not returned but eventually the numbers would have stabilized when they saw they could travel when they wanted to....some historians say had the SED allowed unhindered travel to the West GDR would be there today---

If you talk today with that generation that is now in their late 40s mid 50s..many say they would have returned...

That drive for free travel is a greater draw towards the EU than you think it is....

BTW right now the IT abilities of young Ukrainians taught IT in Ukraine is head and shoulders above much of what we see currently in the US...they can match US coders step for step....


The U.S. is the third or fourth largest agricultural producer, with a sector 7 to 9 times larger than that of Ukraine. The latter would have to double its productivity just to rival Canada, to say nothing of Brazil and other agricultural giants. Unless one is planning on carving out an autarkic empire in Europe that can withstand a naval blockade, the Ukrainian “breadbasket” is no longer as strategic as it was say in the 1930s and 1940s.

You really are off on your figures....check the latest export numbers and check the massive investments coming into the farming sector from US companies...BTW check the last years corn harvest and how much of it have been destroyed as it was contaminated by black fungus....AND if NAFTA was not in place the US corn market would be a deep deep black hole and many farmers would be out of business.....

Grain is what the Ukrainians produce not corn which is largely what the US has shifted to as well as soybeans...


It seems that you are enamored of any country confronting Russia.

You still do not get it...I am enamored with any country..political party and or individual who actively pushes back against Russian political warfare..do you not agree...and it that is the goal so be it...

BUT right now the Trump WH and Trump himself are actually enabling Russian political warfare against the US and Europe and that my friend is unacceptable...

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 03:26 PM
Anyone who thinks #Mariupol-Berdyansk metallurgy is not an "asset" to be acquired by force by Russia - think again

Azor I posted at the very beginning over two years ago a long series of Ukrainian companies that Russia wanted to takeover when their so called "separatists" arrived in Donbass from Crimea.....I notice that many commenters have forgotten that list and it was a majority of Ukrainian companies working in the defense sector supplying Russia..

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 04:17 PM
Active fighting east of #Mariupol

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 04:57 PM
19:39 #Avdiivka: We seem to have civil casualties. Lots of ambulances rushed. Impacts on private housing area

19:50 #Mariupol: Oh, boom, loud even in the #Center

Battle also at #Vodyane, near #Mariupol.

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 07:58 PM
Popasna: Fighting
#Svitlodarsk_Bulge: Fighting

22:53 #Horlivka: I think there were more than 2 loads [of outgoing Grad MLRS] from 2-3 places. The uninterrupted hum was too long

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 08:07 PM
Russia allocates $180 million to supply ore to the Donbas
http://uawire.org/news/media-russia-allocates-180-million-to-supply-ore-to-the-donbas#

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 08:09 PM
Russian fighter jet approched US reconnaissance aircraft at distance of 6 meters over the Black Sea
http://uawire.org/news/the-russian-fighter-flew-at-a-distance-of-6-meters-from-the-us-reconnaissance-aircraft#

For 2nd time this week, another Rus fighter jet 'buzzed' US Navy recon plane in Black Sea Friday

davidbfpo
05-13-2017, 08:27 PM
There have been a few posts on the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and why for years they appeared to be silent - until the Maidan "moment".

Twenty years ago I visited western Ukraine, centred around Lviv or Lvov, which had been Polish until 1939. I have three abiding memories of talking to our hots, professional architects. One was a remark when we stopped at a war memorial, with a plaque for WW2 from 1939-1947; I was puzzled at the post-1945 extension and was told about the Ukrainian resistance to the return of Soviet rule.

Then we visited a small museum in a medium sized villa in Lvov, which had a display of civic or state funerals after independence (in 1991) and I asked what they were. One host explained the funerals were for victims of the Soviet state when Lvov became Soviet again in July 1944. Adding many victims were not reclaimed by their families who feared the Soviets / Russians would return one day exacting revenge.

A glimpse into the 1944 history comes in:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lw%C3%B3w_uprising

Finally at our final dinner a host asked our group (all "Westerners") 'Not to forget us, we are West Europeans'. I never imagined the Ukraine was part of Western Europe, but they did.

The Ukraine's modern history is bloody and rightly they fear / feared an end to their independence after 1991.

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 08:59 PM
Reportedly Svitlodarsk city is under MLRS GRAD shelling

Horlivka: Outgoing MLRS Grad from city's north

OUTLAW 09
05-13-2017, 09:00 PM
Azor...you truly do not understand Ukraine nor what drives younger Ukrainians but maybe that is because you are in the US....

NOR have you lived within the former East Bloc before the fall of the WALL....

So now do your homework...both Ukraine and Russia were actually vying for visa free travel to EU...

Russia was on track to get it until they shot themselves in the foot...with Crimea now that will never happen.

So are you trying to sell me Russia wanted EU remittances as well??

Anybody who understands the EU joining process knows that it takes roughly 10 years and a country must fulfil 21 points before even being invited to join and Ukraine knows this..they wanted the association agreement due to open and free trade and trade preferences AND they really wanted visa free travel....

WHY..for two reasons...they really do like to travel to EU without having to be restricted to two months, X amount of money in the bank, medical coverage and lining up to get the visa from any EU Embassy...and then paying the fees for it.

BUT more importantly it symbolizes a clear and concise break from Russia and the former Soviet Union....

This issue of visa free travel is an interesting thing which you tend to overlook.......

There are documents from several GDR SED Central Committee meetings in the months proceeding the fall of the Wall and the large number of GDR refugees that were in the BRD Embassy in Prague and then their exiting to West Germany...which they openly and heatedly discussed the potential of allowing GDR citizens the right to travel for 30 days every year to the West and or allowing all the time free travel.....

WHY ...and this is where you do not know anything as you never dealt with large numbers of GDR citizens arriving in Berlin ....one of the largest complaints from them was their inability to travel to places they saw of West German TV next to the dream of getting bananas....on a regular basis that were not black or brown and from Cuba and only during Xmas....

BTW...one of the hottest fruits always on sale in former GDR is in fact still bananas...

The SED Politburo seriously thought about the free travel or 30 days but in the end rejected both ideas as they were afraid no one would return and thus eventually the Wall came down and GDR citizens were free to travel anywhere they wanted to...exactly what was being discussed in the SED Politburo...

Yes many would not returned but eventually the numbers would have stabilized when they saw they could travel when they wanted to....some historians say had the SED allowed unhindered travel to the West GDR would be there today---

If you talk today with that generation that is now in their late 40s mid 50s..many say they would have returned...

That drive for free travel is a greater draw towards the EU than you think it is....

BTW right now the IT abilities of young Ukrainians taught IT in Ukraine is head and shoulders above much of what we see currently in the US...they can match US coders step for step....



You really are off on your figures....check the latest export numbers and check the massive investments coming into the farming sector from US companies...BTW check the last years corn harvest and how much of it have been destroyed as it was contaminated by black fungus....AND if NAFTA was not in place the US corn market would be a deep deep black hole and many farmers would be out of business.....

Grain is what the Ukrainians produce not corn which is largely what the US has shifted to as well as soybeans...



You still do not get it...I am enamored with any country..political party and or individual who actively pushes back against Russian political warfare..do you not agree...and it that is the goal so be it...

BUT right now the Trump WH and Trump himself are actually enabling Russian political warfare against the US and Europe and that my friend is unacceptable...

Map of European countries where Ukrainians won't need visas

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 08:05 AM
Fighting has gone on all night at a rather high level and is still continuing this morning.....

08:45 #Horlivka: #Zhovanka-#Zaytseve - battle since morning

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 11:18 AM
Russian-backed separatists fired Grad rocket systems 60 times in Donbas last night.

Fire spread through the settlements.

4 civilians killed.

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 11:22 AM
Russian supported and financed mercenaries are now using the Aleppo tactic....fo shelling civilians and their residences...

Russia attacked four Ukrainian towns and villages using the terrorist tactic of firing shells & rockets from residential areas

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 11:41 AM
#Gazprom to Zatulin: $2 million per year for subversive activities in #Ukraine
https://informnapalm.org/en/gazprom-zatulin-2-million-per-year-subversive-activities-ukraine-photo/#BTW...

Gazprom is Russia's major soft power money giver and used to drive their political war with the West....

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 12:01 PM
There have been a few posts on the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and why for years they appeared to be silent - until the Maidan "moment".

Twenty years ago I visited western Ukraine, centred around Lviv or Lvov, which had been Polish until 1939. I have three abiding memories of talking to our hots, professional architects. One was a remark when we stopped at a war memorial, with a plaque for WW2 from 1939-1947; I was puzzled at the post-1945 extension and was told about the Ukrainian resistance to the return of Soviet rule.

Then we visited a small museum in a medium sized villa in Lvov, which had a display of civic or state funerals after independence (in 1991) and I asked what they were. One host explained the funerals were for victims of the Soviet state when Lvov became Soviet again in July 1944. Adding many victims were not reclaimed by their families who feared the Soviets / Russians would return one day exacting revenge.

A glimpse into the 1944 history comes in:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lw%C3%B3w_uprising

Finally at our final dinner a host asked our group (all "Westerners") 'Not to forget us, we are West Europeans'. I never imagined the Ukraine was part of Western Europe, but they did.

The Ukraine's modern history is bloody and rightly they fear / feared an end to their independence after 1991.

Azor..what you apparently failed to see with Maidan was a birth of the Ukrainian identity which they created themselves during the Maidan and that is driving them today...the national pride in standing up to power is sometimes a far stronger feeling than all the nationalism of say a Trump....

Maidan was not about a single age group but cut across all ages and levels of education...1,762 dead UAF later they still are defending Maidan...and not even the US can effectively counter Russian information and cyber warfare...Ukraine is doing a good job of it though....

The support of the general public is still very much there...with every burial of a UAF soldier as he is carried to where ever he is being buried the local people line the roads on bended knees in respect..that does not even happen on the US...

https://youtu.be/UUnuQ998Gq8
Ukrainian

https://youtu.be/D8HqRH5cHPo
Ukrainian

https://youtu.be/Bd05t-d2GIY
EN

https://youtu.be/CT7hTVMrwQo
EN

At Maidan a Ukrainian national identity was born and the drive to become of a "European" was achieved........and Russia lost forever Ukraine.....

That Russian loss will be sealed forever with the EU visa freedom on 1 JUN 2017....

That was not the case of most of the other Eastern European countries that broke away after 1991....BTW none of these countries have made the strongest set of reform laws in just under three years..that Ukraine has even in the face of continued corruption and war....not even the Baltics...

AND Russia is ever so slowly heading towards a "Maidan"...and Putin knows it.....

Signs of the times at Moscow rally against mass demolitions: "When they came for me..." and "Stop stealing."

Russian libertarians protest against state overreach and for property rights at rally against mass demolitions in Moscow.
BUT WAIT...the US Do not Tread on Me flag might be used in Russian propaganda as proof of this being a CIA led demo and "regime change"....

Thousands of people now chanting for Moscow mayor @MosSobyanin's resignation. And the political opposition had nothing to do with this

Guess who´s back from eye treatment in Barcelona and visiting the rally against demolotion of 8000 appartment blocs in Moscow.

"Muscovites are not deer."

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 12:19 PM
Russian improved T-72B3 tanks spotted in military convoy near Ukrainian border

http://defence-blog.com/army/russian-improved-t-72b3-tanks-spotted-in-military-convoy-near-ukrainian-border.html#

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 12:29 PM
US Global Hawk #UAV #drone @ 51,000ft over Ukraine approaching the Russian border

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 02:42 PM
Russia has started a new battle, attacking north from occupied Horlivka towards free Zaitseve.
https://twitter.com/thunderbolt1488/status/863631443787997184#

OUTLAW 09
05-14-2017, 06:18 PM
Vodyane-#Sakhanka area near #Mariupol - battle ongoing, incl. with heavy artillery.

Ukraine reports 4 WIAs amid 61 enemy attacks in last day

Azor
05-14-2017, 07:20 PM
There have been a few posts on the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and why for years they appeared to be silent - until the Maidan "moment".

Twenty years ago I visited western Ukraine, centred around Lviv or Lvov, which had been Polish until 1939. I have three abiding memories of talking to our hots, professional architects. One was a remark when we stopped at a war memorial, with a plaque for WW2 from 1939-1947; I was puzzled at the post-1945 extension and was told about the Ukrainian resistance to the return of Soviet rule.

Then we visited a small museum in a medium sized villa in Lvov, which had a display of civic or state funerals after independence (in 1991) and I asked what they were. One host explained the funerals were for victims of the Soviet state when Lvov became Soviet again in July 1944. Adding many victims were not reclaimed by their families who feared the Soviets / Russians would return one day exacting revenge.

A glimpse into the 1944 history comes in:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lw%C3%B3w_uprising

Finally at our final dinner a host asked our group (all "Westerners") 'Not to forget us, we are West Europeans'. I never imagined the Ukraine was part of Western Europe, but they did.

The Ukraine's modern history is bloody and rightly they fear / feared an end to their independence after 1991.

David,

I must interject here.

In 1939, Lwow was inhabited primarily by ethnic Poles and Jews, with ethnic Ukrainians in the surrounding countryside. The Ukrainians resented Polish rule and mainly welcomed the Soviet invasion in 1939, even assisting the NKVD in deporting ethnic Poles considered threatening to Soviet rule. Yet by 1941 the Ukrainians had learned that Stalin was less than interested in Ukrainian self-determination, and had turned his attention to Ukrainian nationalists. Thus, the Germans found a warm welcome in the Summer of 1941. Ethnic Ukrainians in Lwow captured Jewish women, stripped them naked, raped them and paraded them through the streets before murdering them.

During World War II, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and its militant arm the Ukrainian Insurgent Army went on a rampage after Operation Barbarossa began, murdering and torturing ethnic Poles and Jews. Even up to the end of 1953, the UIA had killed far more Jewish and Polish civilians than German and Soviet soldiers combined.

The uprising you speak of was by the Polish Home Army (AK) in 1944, which was involved in clashes with the UIA as part of the protection of Polish villages in Galicia and Volhynia.

The Ukrainians are as bad about re-writing history in their favor as Stalin was, who had no problem counting all deaths in eastern Poland or in Soviet GULags as victims of Germany.

Note that during the Cossack uprising in the late 17th Century - Ukraine's other "heroic" act - 80-90% of the Cossack's victims were Jewish civilians, not Polish soldiers.

I am proud of what the Ukrainians did in late 2013 and early 2014, but it remains to be seen what price they want to pay to wrest true independence from Russia, or whether they were enticed by subsidies and potential remittances.

Azor
05-15-2017, 03:29 AM
Azor...

…you truly do not understand…
…you are in the US…
…NOR have you lived within…
…and this is where you do not know anything as you never dealt with…
…So now do your homework...

My understanding of special forces operators is that they are able to shoot accurately in battle, despite the physiological conditions that affect the gross and fine motor skills of most soldiers. Yet your ad hominem is wide off the mark.


…both Ukraine and Russia were actually vying for visa free travel to EU...

Russia was on track to get it until they shot themselves in the foot...with Crimea now that will never happen.

So are you trying to sell me Russia wanted EU remittances as well??

Apparently the Russians decided that association with the EU wasn’t worth it.


Anybody who understands the EU joining process knows that it takes roughly 10 years and a country must fulfil 21 points before even being invited to join and Ukraine knows this..they wanted the association agreement due to open and free trade and trade preferences AND they really wanted visa free travel....

WHY...for two reasons...they really do like to travel to EU without having to be restricted to two months, X amount of money in the bank, medical coverage and lining up to get the visa from any EU Embassy...and then paying the fees for it.

BUT more importantly it symbolizes a clear and concise break from Russia and the former Soviet Union....

This issue of visa free travel is an interesting thing which you tend to overlook...

But were the Ukrainians who rejected the EAEU and Russian incentives in favor of association with the EU fully aware of the process and its conditions?

Given the transfer payments from some EU members to others, remittances from EU member citizens and illegal migrants alike, Greek profligacy and the eventual bailout, and the reluctant back-stopping of the PIGS economies, Ukrainians can be forgiven if they believed that the EU’s streets were paved with gold, and the ten years and twenty-one points were more a nudge-nudge wink-wink type of arrangement.


…now the IT abilities of young Ukrainians taught IT in Ukraine is head and shoulders above much of what we see currently in the US...they can match US coders step for step...

Yawn. You aren’t in the U.S., so what are you “currently seeing”, exactly? The Russians and Chinese are excellent coders as well. Who was it that created Olympic Games/Stuxnet? Who was it that infiltrated the Chinese Communist Party’s meetings via malware? Did the Ukrainians paralyze Russian infrastructure or was it the other way around?


You really are off on your figures...check the latest export numbers and check the massive investments coming into the farming sector from US companies...BTW check the last years corn harvest and how much of it have been destroyed as it was contaminated by black fungus...AND if NAFTA was not in place the US corn market would be a deep deep black hole and many farmers would be out of business...Grain is what the Ukrainians produce not corn which is largely what the US has shifted to as well as soybeans...

Then provide some figures and sources, including links. All of the GDP per capita PPP, constant dollars and overall growth is publicly available. Ukraine’s economy is a basket case, and has only seen growth as part of a recovery from 2014. Ukraine’s grain hasn’t been strategic since the 1950s. Khrushchev had to buy wheat from Canada, remember, when the “Virgin Lands” initiative failed, but I’m sure you’ll have an excuse for that.


You still do not get it...I am enamored with any country...political party and or individual who actively pushes back against Russian political warfare…do you not agree...and it that is the goal so be it...

I haven’t had the ‘I support whatever country is taking on Russia’ attitude since I was 18-years old. I regret that Operation Unthinkable wasn’t launched, but I can understand why it wasn’t. In hindsight, were Patton and MacArthur so wrong?

In 2008, I was rooting for the Georgians to bleed the Russians white, rather than embarrass themselves, which they did (fortunately, the Iraqi Army surpassed their record in 2014). It was further embarrassing to learn that Saakashvili was the aggressor and that the Georgians started off committing clear war crimes. The lessons of that war were obvious: SAMs, SAMs, ATGMs, and more SAMs. But instead of spackling Poland and the Baltic republics with Patriots we have the useless BMD/EPAA to protect Central Europe from Iran.


…Maidan was a birth of the Ukrainian identity which they created themselves during the Maidan and that is driving them today...the national pride in standing up to power is sometimes a far stronger feeling than all the nationalism of say a Trump...

Maidan was not about a single age group but cut across all ages and levels of education...1,762 dead UAF later they still are defending Maidan...and not even the US can effectively counter Russian information and cyber warfare...Ukraine is doing a good job of it though...The support of the general public is still very much there...with every burial of a UAF soldier as he is carried to where ever he is being buried the local people line the roads on bended knees in respect..that does not even happen on the US... At Maidan a Ukrainian national identity was born and the drive to become of a "European" was achieved...and Russia lost forever Ukraine...

What of the nationalism of Khmelnitsky or Bandera? The latter was closer to Hitler than Franco or Mussolini. What about Trump again? Why the attachment to America’s Christina Kirchner?

The Orange Revolution collapsed into corruption, and Yuschenko awarded “Hero of Ukraine” status to Bandera and his fellow criminals before he left power. My concerns about Ukrainian nationalism developing in dark ways are neither unjustified nor unreasonable given Ukraine’s history, and the inability or unwillingness of Ukrainian nationalists to come to terms with it. At present it is too early to tell in what direction it will develop.

Despite the Ukrainian nationalists’ historical antipathy for Poles and Jews, it was in precisely those parts of Ukraine under Polish rule and with large Jewish populations, that the Ukrainian nation – culturally, linguistically and religiously – was able to establish itself. Perhaps Bandera and his admirers should “inform” themselves?


That was not the case of most of the other Eastern European countries that broke away after 1991....BTW none of these countries have made the strongest set of reform laws in just under three years..that Ukraine has even in the face of continued corruption and war....not even the Baltics...

The Poles, East Germans, Czechs, Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians and Romanians used non-violent resistance to win their freedom from the local Communists and the Russians. The Ukrainians were merely given independence.


AND Russia is ever so slowly heading towards a "Maidan"...and Putin knows it...

Galeotti and Goble are agreed that if Putin is ousted and replaced by true Russian democracy, it will most probably be an illiberal one. Don't get your hopes up. Yet unlike Ukraine today, a civil war in Russia will throw into doubt the effective C2 of the world's largest, if not most effective, nuclear deterrent.


Azor I posted at the very beginning over two years ago a long series of Ukrainian companies that Russia wanted to takeover when their so called "separatists" arrived in Donbass from Crimea.....I notice that many commentators have forgotten that list and it was a majority of Ukrainian companies working in the defense sector supplying Russia..

BUT right now the Trump WH and Trump himself are actually enabling Russian political warfare against the US and Europe and that my friend is unacceptable...

Ukraine’s industries in Donbas were dependent upon Russian energy inputs and the Russian market. They are completely noncompetitive when separated from the Russian military-industrial complex.

How is Trump enabling Russia? Arguably Obama did much more to enable Russia, and even Bush did nothing when Russia occupied parts of Georgia.

You gave up your U.S. citizenship, right? Paid the tens of thousands of euros, right? You no longer pay taxes to the IRS, right? Shouldn’t you be focusing on more important matters, such as taking in some migrants and enabling Merkel? Or demanding that Poland proscribe the PiS? Or bring up the status of Kaliningrad?

davidbfpo
05-15-2017, 07:59 AM
David,

I must interject here.

In 1939, Lwow was inhabited primarily by ethnic Poles and Jews, with ethnic Ukrainians in the surrounding countryside. The Ukrainians resented Polish rule and mainly welcomed the Soviet invasion in 1939, even assisting the NKVD in deporting ethnic Poles considered threatening to Soviet rule. Yet by 1941 the Ukrainians had learned that Stalin was less than interested in Ukrainian self-determination, and had turned his attention to Ukrainian nationalists. Thus, the Germans found a warm welcome in the Summer of 1941. Ethnic Ukrainians in Lwow captured Jewish women, stripped them naked, raped them and paraded them through the streets before murdering them.

During World War II, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and its militant arm the Ukrainian Insurgent Army went on a rampage after Operation Barbarossa began, murdering and torturing ethnic Poles and Jews. Even up to the end of 1953, the UIA had killed far more Jewish and Polish civilians than German and Soviet soldiers combined.

The uprising you speak of was by the Polish Home Army (AK) in 1944, which was involved in clashes with the UIA as part of the protection of Polish villages in Galicia and Volhynia.

The Ukrainians are as bad about re-writing history in their favor as Stalin was, who had no problem counting all deaths in eastern Poland or in Soviet Gulags as victims of Germany.

Note that during the Cossack uprising in the late 17th Century - Ukraine's other "heroic" act - 80-90% of the Cossack's victims were Jewish civilians, not Polish soldiers.

I am proud of what the Ukrainians did in late 2013 and early 2014, but it remains to be seen what price they want to pay to wrest true independence from Russia, or whether they were enticed by subsidies and potential remittances.

Azor,

I am aware of much of the history you cite and I would recommend, possibly again, this excellent history book: 'Borderland: A Journey through the history of Ukraine' by Anna Reid, pub. 1997. A second edition was published in 2015, with good reviews here:https://www.amazon.co.uk/Borderland-Journey-Through-History-Ukraine/dp/1780229275

All those who hosted us were Ukrainians and some undoubtedly had been Communist Party members, probably to ensure professional advancement.

I offer my memories as they indicate why for years they appeared to be silent - until the Maidan "moment".

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 05:03 PM
David,

I must interject here.

In 1939, Lwow was inhabited primarily by ethnic Poles and Jews, with ethnic Ukrainians in the surrounding countryside. The Ukrainians resented Polish rule and mainly welcomed the Soviet invasion in 1939, even assisting the NKVD in deporting ethnic Poles considered threatening to Soviet rule. Yet by 1941 the Ukrainians had learned that Stalin was less than interested in Ukrainian self-determination, and had turned his attention to Ukrainian nationalists. Thus, the Germans found a warm welcome in the Summer of 1941. Ethnic Ukrainians in Lwow captured Jewish women, stripped them naked, raped them and paraded them through the streets before murdering them.

During World War II, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and its militant arm the Ukrainian Insurgent Army went on a rampage after Operation Barbarossa began, murdering and torturing ethnic Poles and Jews. Even up to the end of 1953, the UIA had killed far more Jewish and Polish civilians than German and Soviet soldiers combined.

The uprising you speak of was by the Polish Home Army (AK) in 1944, which was involved in clashes with the UIA as part of the protection of Polish villages in Galicia and Volhynia.

The Ukrainians are as bad about re-writing history in their favor as Stalin was, who had no problem counting all deaths in eastern Poland or in Soviet GULags as victims of Germany.

Note that during the Cossack uprising in the late 17th Century - Ukraine's other "heroic" act - 80-90% of the Cossack's victims were Jewish civilians, not Polish soldiers.

I am proud of what the Ukrainians did in late 2013 and early 2014, but it remains to be seen what price they want to pay to wrest true independence from Russia, or whether they were enticed by subsidies and potential remittances.

To quote the Ukrainian President...with visa free travel we are now no longer tied to russia....

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 05:05 PM
Azor,

I am aware of much of the history you cite and I would recommend, possibly again, this excellent history book: 'Borderland: A Journey through the history of Ukraine' by Anna Reid, pub. 1997. A second edition was published in 2015, with good reviews here:https://www.amazon.co.uk/Borderland-Journey-Through-History-Ukraine/dp/1780229275

All those who hosted us were Ukrainians and some undoubtedly had been Communist Party members, probably to ensure professional advancement.

I offer my memories as they indicate why for years they appeared to be silent - until the Maidan "moment".

There is nothing wrong in being a former Communist Party member....that was how one survived in the former East Bloc....as no one ever thought the Wall would come down....

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 05:05 PM
April 2014, Remains of a Ukrainian military convoy ambushed by Russian-backed separatists
https://lecturis.nl/en/product/war-in-ukraine/ …

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 05:10 PM
Leader Of 1953 Soviet Gulag Uprising Dies In Ukraine At 90
https://www.rferl.org/a/28489267.html

RU MP Leonid Kalashnikov (KPRF): If the Donbas conflict escalates and Ukraine switches to active mil actions,
RU may recognize 'republics'

RU MP #Kobzon seeks to create a "tourism claster" in "LDNR"
http://www.rbc.ru/politics/15/05/2017/5919c8489a79476ba235e512 …

Has he forgotten that the Donbas is a part of Ukraine?

Azor
05-15-2017, 05:37 PM
Azor,

I am aware of much of the history you cite and I would recommend, possibly again, this excellent history book: 'Borderland: A Journey through the history of Ukraine' by Anna Reid, pub. 1997. A second edition was published in 2015, with good reviews here:https://www.amazon.co.uk/Borderland-Journey-Through-History-Ukraine/dp/1780229275

All those who hosted us were Ukrainians and some undoubtedly had been Communist Party members, probably to ensure professional advancement.

I offer my memories as they indicate why for years they appeared to be silent - until the Maidan "moment".

Thank you for the recommendation, David. In return, I would recommend Snyder’s “Bloodlands”. I will say that despite mentioning Ukrainian anti-Semitism, Reid devotes more time to excusing mass murders committed by the Cossacks and UIA than detailing the crimes themselves.

However, the fact is that the Ukrainians of the Lwow/Lvov/Lviv area collaborated with the NKVD in 1939 and the Germans from 1941 on (the Ukrainian Auxiliary Police were established before the UIA), and only fought the Soviets from 1944 on. Ethnic Ukrainians did suffer somewhat under Soviet rule in 1939-1941, but overall the Soviets were anti-Polish and the executions and enslavement reflect this bias. The UIA engaged in some sporadic clashes with the Germans, but there was overlapping membership between the UIA and various auxiliary and SS units, and a rough and unspoken truce for most of the war.

Therefore, their World War II memorial is less than factual. I remain puzzled why you associated the Lwow Uprising by the AK with ethnic Ukrainians, given that it was by ethnic Poles.

The criminals of the OUN and UIA are still lionized in Galicia and Volhynia today, and the black-and-red flag has been prominent in pro-EU/anti-Russian protests in Kiev. How is lionizing war criminals in any way Western, considering what the West meted out to Germany, Japan and Serbia? There is not even an attempt here to dissociate with these crimes, as the French and Italians have tried i.e. every Frenchman or Italian was part of the resistance, etc.

Now, we can say that Ukrainians are ignorant of their history or suffering collective trauma from Stalin and Hitler, but the starting point has to be the truth.

Nor is this problem limited to Ukraine. The Belgians, Danish and Dutch had far more collaborators and volunteers than resisters to the Germans, and the French and Norwegians are roughly even.

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 06:55 PM
Worth watching. Good ppl @usosce have compiled factual video on Russia's manufactured conflict in #Ukraine #Donbass
https://www.facebook.com/osce.usmission.gov/videos/1718585541490350/ …

49 attacks on Ukrainian positions yesterday, 6 soldiers were wounded

Donetsk, 9.30 pm - A battle is heard for more than 2 hours now. Heavy artillery and all as usual. #Minsk?

OUTLAW 09
05-15-2017, 07:16 PM
In spite of the blockade against Donbas, Ukraine's GDP rose by 2.4% yoy in Q1 2017. Ukraine is ready for takeoff.
epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2017/05/15/624837/ …

Azor
05-15-2017, 09:56 PM
In spite of the blockade against Donbas, Ukraine's GDP rose by 2.4% yoy in Q1 2017. Ukraine is ready for takeoff.
epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2017/05/15/624837/ …

The IMF 2017 estimates for Ukraine's GDP aren't particularly exciting. Ukrainian growth for 2016-2017 is ahead of Belarus and Russia's, but that isn't saying much, especially as Belarus has comparable international reserves and a much higher GDP per capita and a much lower debt-to-GDP ratio.

I've struggled to find a country in Europe worse off than the Ukraine is, although Moldova comes to mind...

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 08:02 AM
AFP news agency

@AFP
#BREAKING Ukraine blocks popular Russian social networks

NOT a good decision....
Huge source of info on Russia's involvement in Ukraine thanks to locals in Eastern Ukraine sharing info on it.

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 08:26 AM
Can Ukraine trust Trump NOT to provide Russia with intel that will help the Russian war machine? Obviously not

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 12:52 PM
Donbas is part of a large Russian strategic campaign, which main goal is the new agreement with the West.
http://www.62.ua/article/1655522

OUTLAW 09
05-16-2017, 01:20 PM
ATO HQ: Russian forces seized new positions near Pisky

Azor
05-16-2017, 07:22 PM
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 65
By: Pavel K. Baev

https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-spoils-every-opportunity-improve-relations-us/


The Kremlin continues to cling to hopes that it can build a rapport with the Donald Trump administration; those expectations copiously developed at the start of the year, only to succumb to one cold shower after another since then. Yuri Ushakov, President Vladimir Putin’s long-serving foreign policy aide, recently asserted that the “difficult legacy” left by the Barack Obama administration was gradually sorted out despite the resistance of “certain forces in the American establishment” (RIA Novosti, May 12). Yet, he could not refrain from warning about the “limits of Russia’s patience” regarding the diplomatic property “confiscated” by the United States in December 2016 (RBC, May 12). This bitter complaint reflects the depth of frustration in Moscow caused by the accumulation of new complications in Washington that block Putin’s plan for cultivating a beautiful friendship with the inexperienced but open-minded President Trump. This frustration results in Moscow pushing too hard for every opening in the frozen relations and in spoiling the few opportunities that come up.

Small gestures often matter a lot in a high-level diplomatic dance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was obviously elated when his meeting with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was followed by a meeting with Trump in the White House (Kommersant, May 10). But the Russians’ release of the photo of Trump and Lavrov smiling together at the Oval Office with Ambassador Sergei Kislyak was definitely a mistake (Newsru.com, May 11). Kislyak is implicated in several scandals involving key members of Trump’s election team, and investigations into these connections by the US Congress inevitably generate demands to punish Russia (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 11). Trump’s abrupt firing of Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director James Comey overshadowed the moderately positive effect of Lavrov’s talks and was invariably interpreted in Moscow as triggered by the investigations of Russia’s interference in the elections (Novaya Gazeta, May 11). Mainstream commentators argue that the US president has launched a counter-offensive against “Russophobes” in his own administration, but some also point to his sensitivity to “image risks” related to Russia (RIA Novosti, May 12).

The theme Moscow seeks to establish as the central avenue for possible cooperation is the fight against the Islamic State (IS). Russia is trying to sell the US on its recent initiative to establish four “de-escalation zones” in Syria (see EDM, May 4). The plan is being presented as a step forward in bringing the disastrous civil war to an end, but it would ensure the continuation of Bashar al-Assad’s regime (Kommersant, May 6). Israel has already firmly rejected the Syrian de-escalation zones idea: it has asserted its intention to strike Hezbollah in every location where it poses a threat (Rosbalt.ru, May 11). For the Trump administration, meanwhile, the value of this Russian initiative for achieving Washington’s priority goal of defeating the IS in Raqqa is far from obvious (Gazeta.ru, May 12). The main problem is in fact Turkey, which is adamantly against supplying heavy weapons to the Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG), which are leading the offensive on Raqqa (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 12). Moscow is spinning its own intrigue with the Kurds (see EDM, February 17, 2016; February 15, 2017; April 25, 2017) but gives greater priority to restoring strategic relations with Ankara (Carnegie.ru, May 2). Nonetheless, Lavrov’s enticements are undercut by National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster’s firm statement on confronting Russia’s “disruptive behavior” in Syria (Moskovsky Komsomolets, May 12).

McMaster, who is unequivocally defined in Moscow as an adversary, was actually speaking not only about Syria, but about Ukraine as well. On this latter issue, scant common ground can be found. Immediately after Lavrov’s visit, Trump met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin and called for making peace; the Kremlin refused to comment on the White House’s appeal (RBC, May 12). Lavrov and Dmitri Peskov, President Putin’s press secretary, seek to downplay the disagreements with the US regarding sanctions and the implementation of the Minsk commitments on Ukraine (RIA Novosti, May 11). This bracketing-out of the core problem can take the US-Russian rapprochement only so far, particularly as Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has called for increasing pressure on Russia to overcome the deadlock in Donbas (Newsru.com, May 12). As if a reminder about Moscow’s tough stance on the Ukraine conflict was needed, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon was aggressively intercepted by a Russian Su-30 fighter over the Black Sea, on May 9 (RIA Novosti, May 12).

An opportunity to prove that Russia could be a valuable partner for the US opened with the escalation of the North Korean crisis—but was inexplicably missed (see EDM, March 28). Russia was taken aback by the swift establishment of US-China cooperation, which became the main channel for managing this crisis. Moscow now hopes that the election of a more détente-leaning president in Seoul will deny Washington the means for applying military pressure on Pyongyang (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 11). Putin traveled to Beijing on May 14–15 to partake in the “One Belt One Road” forum with the hope that a short meeting with President Xi Jinping would re-energize the strategic partnership and remind China about Russia’s unwavering support (Kommersant, May 12). His speech about building a broad Eurasian partnership as a “civilizational project” omitted any mention of the US, while effusively praising Chinese contributions (Kremlin.ru, May 14). It is unclear how his appeal to abandon “militant rhetoric” and refrain from “mutual recrimination” might help in responding to yet another missile test by North Korea, alarmingly close to Vladivostok (Gazeta.ru, May 14).

Putin is clearly investing effort in upholding his international profile, meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. But the yield on these investments is low and cannot compensate for such a major setback as the defeat of Russia’s favored candidate in the French presidential elections. His inability to make even a minor difference in the Korean crisis and his dependence upon the “brotherhood in arms” with Iran in the Syrian war will hardly contribute anything positive to Putin’s upcoming meeting with Trump, scheduled for the July G20 summit, in Hamburg. By then, the investigations into Russia’s interference in the US elections could take many new turns, and Putin may run out of diplomatic maneuvers designed to compensate for the damning evidence. Hopes to take advantage of Trump’s lack of experience and principles might finally dissipate and turn into anxiety that Washington will seek to punish Moscow.

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 04:26 AM
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 65
By: Pavel K. Baev

https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-spoils-every-opportunity-improve-relations-us/

While the article reads nicely and is footnoted and quotes all...they missed the key answer facing them directly so to say....

Putin does not want to formalize anything with the US....he actually views the US is at war with the Russian state and wants the demise of Russia...via regime change.....Putin and his inner circle fully believe this and have stated such since 2006...

Besides Putin views the US has the main driven behind neo liberalism so why provide "the enemy" with anything that looks like a FP win in Russian US relations....

The recent Russian PR photo op in the WH was the example of a well thought through Russian info war success...

FOLLOWED by a US President basically committing treason when he revealed CODE WORD intel to the Russians in full listening range of a TASS reporter...

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 08:54 AM
Heavy Russian shelling's and ground fighting from yesterday continues into this morning...still heavy and all along the Minsk ceasefire line....

Report of active MLRS in the North of Makiivka

VIDEO: Shelling yesterday near #Avdiivka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCVDU_WFtBE#

Fierce fighting at #Spartak, N-W #Donetsk this morning: pic.twitter.com/WfVOYAZMzS
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/864726009295319040/video/1#
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/17-may-fierce-fighting-at-spartak-nw-donetsk-this-morning#

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 09:32 AM
Reference Russian shot down of MH17....

Novaya Gazeta publishes video appeal by Serhiy Tiunov for his former friend "Khmuryi" to get in contact over #MH17.
http://bit.ly/2rpI44I

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 10:17 AM
BREAKING Putin's PA Vladislav Surkov met with Rinat Akhmetov in Donetsk on Feb 12th 2014. It was peak of Maidan.
https://twitter.com/lb_ua/status/864762928607764480#

KEY meeting....Girkin's coming in from Crimea was not some strange "accident"...and his starting the so called "separatist movement" is fake news....

Akhmetiov is a big supporter of the Russian mercenaries in eastern Ukraine...

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 05:25 PM
Heavy artillery firing from #Makeevka. Incoming fire in #Avdeevka.

Azor
05-17-2017, 05:51 PM
While the article reads nicely and is footnoted and quotes all...they missed the key answer facing them directly so to say....

Putin does not want to formalize anything with the US....he actually views the US is at war with the Russian state and wants the demise of Russia...via regime change.....Putin and his inner circle fully believe this and have stated such since 2006...

Besides Putin views the US has the main driven behind neo liberalism so why provide "the enemy" with anything that looks like a FP win in Russian US relations....

The recent Russian PR photo op in the WH was the example of a well thought through Russian info war success...

I forgot that you are the one and only Kremlinologist, and that all others including Baev, Galeotti and Goble are only correct when and where they concur with your opinions.

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 05:58 PM
How Russia's invasion started: Satellite vid showing Russian army camps & artillery shelling Ukr positions
https://youtu.be/GVWPTqoVuks
#

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 06:09 PM
Hard to say what triggered the heavy fighting this evening. Possible that it's related to recent seized positions by Russians near #Pisky.

Leer-3 in occupied-Donbas
https://informnapalm.org/en/russian-leer-3wf-donbas/#

Spyware "trap doors" can allow certain apps to function even if a cell phone is in off or airplane mode (Unknown if RU GRU use these)

Active Ukrainian troops should A) Turn their phone off B) Remove the SIM card. Better still, C) Leave it off far away from the frontline

Russian GRU electronic warfare geolocation specialists can locate a cell phone's digital footprint to accuracy of within 10-50 meters

Powered down or powered off? Cell phones continue to generate location metadata in both sleep (hibernation) & standby modes

GRU also use virtual towers (cell site simulators) that impersonate cell phone towers that a phone locks onto without user's knowledge


Russian airborne SIGINT platforms have electronics pods that scan large areas for metadata from wireless routers, computers, phones etc

Also possible to relay electromagnetic signatures of cell phones to guided missile platforms that home in on device by signal strength

OUTLAW 09
05-17-2017, 06:22 PM
20:39 #Avdiivka: Heavy artillery is working, rolls across the whole town, but I guess the positions are 5-7km away fr/town. Hits not heard

21:15 #Yasynuvata: loud as hell

Azor
05-17-2017, 10:05 PM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/ukraine-survives-without-coal-russia-controlled-donbas/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 67
By: Oleg Varfolomeyev


In spite of a blockade on shipments of anthracite coal from occupied Donbas to Ukrainian thermal power plants (TPPs) since this past winter, the country has thus far avoided blackouts. Moreover, Ukraine has managed to increase power generation by 2.1 percent year over year in January–April (Interfax-Ukraine, May 13). This was mainly thanks to heavy reliance on nuclear energy, but warm weather and lower consumption by industry also helped. Ahead of the next heating season, which kicks off in October, Ukraine is going to replace Donbas-sourced anthracite with imported coal, while also converting its thermal power plants to use alternative fuels.

Ukrainian nationalists began to block roads leading into the Moscow-backed so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) at the end of January, protesting against what they saw as profiteering from the war by Ukrainian tycoon Rinat Akhmetov at consumers’ expense. They claimed that the government agreed to pay for coal extracted at Akhmetov’s mines, located in the Russia-controlled areas, according to the so-called Rotterdam-plus formula, so it was as expensive as if it were shipped from the Netherlands (Zn.ua, February 17). Because of the blockade, Ukrainian TPPs were left without anthracite from the DPR and LPR territories, and the government warned in February that almost a third of Ukraine would face blackouts by April. Still, the protests gained momentum, and in March Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko banned all cargo traffic with the occupied eastern territories. As a result, five out of the six Ukrainian TPPs that used to burn anthracite stopped operations in April.

But even with many of its TPPs offline, Ukraine was not plunged into blackouts, thanks to a combination of factors. February and March were unusually warm, so less coal was used for heating. Industry also consumed less power because the Donbas blockade not only affected power generation, but also subdued output in metallurgy and the engineering industry. For example, after growth last year and in January, metal production plunged year on year by 4.3 percent in February and by 2.2 percent in March (Ukrstat.gov.ua, accessed on May 16). Also, thermal power was partially replaced with nuclear power, so the share of nuclear plants in power generation jumped from 52 percent in 2016 to 57 percent in January–April (Interfax, May 15). However, Ukraine cannot continue to heavily rely on nuclear reactors, as it will be necessary to shut them down for scheduled maintenance later in the year. Meanwhile, domestic power consumption is likely to grow, as the economy continues to expand.

To remedy this situation, Ukraine plans to increase coal imports, while adapting its TPPs to use lower-quality G-grade coal, which is extracted outside the occupied areas and can be easily imported, in place of anthracite. The Ukrainian government does not want to increase coal imports from Russia on principle, because of the war, so Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman suggested buying coal from as far as the United States, South Africa and Australia (Ukrinform.ua, March 21). However, that might be prohibitively expensive, given the transportation costs involved.

On April 25, Sakhnakhshiri, a company based across the Black Sea in Georgia, won a tender to deliver 700,000 tons of coal to Ukraine to the state company Tsentrenergo, which runs two of the five power plants stopped due to the coal shortage. Sakhnakhshiri is to deliver coal to Ukraine in May–December. However, there have been doubts about this supplier, showing the pitfalls Ukraine may encounter while looking for a replacement to Donbas anthracite. Sakhnakhshiri faced only one competitor in the tender, a little-known firm registered in Poland but linked to a Ukrainian citizen, whose bid price was only $38 higher than Sakhnakhshiri’s. So there was little or no competition (Liga.net, April 26). Furthermore, Georgia’s former president Mikheil Saakashvili said on his Facebook page on April 27 that Sakhnakhshiri might end up buying coal for Ukraine in Russia, and he questioned the transparency of the deal. Georgia, said Saakashvili, could not produce so much coal of the quality asked by Tsentrenergo. Coal bought from Russia may turn out to be coal that was originally shipped to Russia by the DPR-LPR authorities.

Meanwhile, both the government and Akhmetov’s DTEK, Ukraine’s biggest private energy company, are working to convert their TPPs to G-grade coal. DTEK CEO Maksym Tymchenko said in an interview that one of his firm’s TPPs was currently being converted, and conversion of another plant was already planned (Epravda.com.ua, April 27). DTEK also began to buy anthracite from South Africa (Dtek.com, April 13). Energy Minister Ihor Nasalyk told a recent government meeting that power units at two of Tsentrenergo’s TPPs would use G-grade coal by the end of 2017. Along with the construction of new power transmission lines from nuclear plants and new hydropower units, this should allow Ukraine to replace about four million tons of Donbas anthracite in power generation, Kyiv hopes (Mpe.kmu.gov.ua, April 26).

Ukraine has learned to survive without natural gas purchases from Russia’s Gazprom. This year, it is learning to live without coal from the areas controlled by Russia-backed militants. This is vital for Ukraine’s highly energy-dependent industry, which is expected to increase production this year, supporting GDP growth for the second year in a row, after deep recession in 2014–2015.

OUTLAW 09
05-18-2017, 04:33 AM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/ukraine-survives-without-coal-russia-controlled-donbas/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 67
By: Oleg Varfolomeyev

Supports the following fact....coal being purchased from an proRussian leaning oligarch.....was being priced at 300 USDs per metric ton....coal now say from South Africa was recently purchased at 85 USDs...per metric ton..

A very good savings...

Interestingly enough...China has now offered Ukraine assistance in modernizing their coal industry...this is the backdoor into the Ukrainian agriculture ie grain industry...

OUTLAW 09
05-18-2017, 08:22 AM
Deportation, genocide, and Russia’s war against Crimean Tatars
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/05/19/deportation-genocide-and-russias-war-against-crimean-tatars/#

5 WIA amid 52 enemy attacks by Russia's troops in Donbas over the last day.

OUTLAW 09
05-18-2017, 02:54 PM
Today we mourn the victims of criminal deportation of Crimean Tatars ordered by Stalin's Regime in 1944

Azor
05-18-2017, 09:47 PM
Supports the following fact....coal being purchased from an proRussian leaning oligarch.....was being priced at 300 USDs per metric ton....coal now say from South Africa was recently purchased at 85 USDs...per metric ton..

A very good savings...

Interestingly enough...China has now offered Ukraine assistance in modernizing their coal industry...this is the backdoor into the Ukrainian agriculture ie grain industry...

Sources for Akhmetov's prices? What of the shipping costs from South Africa, the U.S., etc.?

OUTLAW 09
05-19-2017, 04:09 AM
Sources for Akhmetov's prices? What of the shipping costs from South Africa, the U.S., etc.?

Source..Ukrainian government four weeks ago....RSA price was landed in Odessa costs of 85 per ton....

The 300 price was overvalued as that was the cut the mercenaries took for themselves.....but it had to be still paid and the Ukrainian government knows this....

Azor
05-19-2017, 06:18 AM
Source..Ukrainian government four weeks ago....RSA price was landed in Odessa costs of 85 per ton....

The 300 price was overvalued as that was the cut the mercenaries took for themselves.....but it had to be still paid and the Ukrainian government knows this....


Post links please for both claims.

OUTLAW 09
05-19-2017, 09:14 AM
There is fighting in multiple places along the frontline in eastern #Ukraine this morning but nothing 'unusual'. #Avdeevka #Mariupol

OUTLAW 09
05-19-2017, 02:14 PM
Heavy fire after shelling of Berdyanske&Shyrokyne w 122mm arty y/day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7BqX5fspA4#… pic.twitter.com/DCMhM8Newa

OUTLAW 09
05-19-2017, 06:17 PM
Evening battles in eastern #Ukraine are in full swing. #Makeevka #Yasynuvata #Horlivka #Mariupol #Donetsk

OUTLAW 09
05-20-2017, 07:38 AM
"Trump played down his personal concern about the fighting in Ukraine". If true, a fairly disastrous signal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/us/politics/trump-russia-comey.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0#

REMEMBER this was stated in front of and privately to the Russian FM and he definitely did not miss the signal did he Azor????

OUTLAW 09
05-20-2017, 10:19 AM
55 Russian attacks on UAF and 7 UAF WIAs later we still are at war in Central Europe

OUTLAW 09
05-20-2017, 10:39 AM
Russian joke for today:



"Kremlin announced that Russians' income is rising. Russians counted their earnings & concluded they'd lost their citizenship"

OUTLAW 09
05-20-2017, 10:56 AM
Supplies of drinking water to the occup Luhansk reg at the moment are impossible due to the big debt
Water shutdown?
http://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2017/05/20/625073/#

OUTLAW 09
05-20-2017, 05:01 PM
Security Service of Ukraine foiled a Russian provocation in Zakarpatie region
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJ32rtV1rEw#

OUTLAW 09
05-20-2017, 05:16 PM
What sanctions? --> Russia asks WTO to look into sanctions by Ukraine on Moscow
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-wto-idUSKCN18G0O0?il=0#

OUTLAW 09
05-20-2017, 07:31 PM
Russia deploys six nuclear warheads in Crimea – Dzhemilev
https://www.unian.info/politics/1933261-russia-deploys-six-nuclear-warheads-in-crimea-dzhemilev.html#

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 09:09 AM
In Russian held #Ukraine, some cemeteries have V high numbers of mostly unmarked graves. 6 show 5,000+. Detailed report coming soon #Donbass

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 09:12 AM
Due to enemy shelling by Russia's troops in Donbas, 7 Ukrainian soldiers WIA over the past day.

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 09:30 AM
RED ALERT?!
After Russian "#tourists" in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin army just announced its navy is "driving #camping" in the Pacific.

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 10:01 AM
Berkut officers killing on Maidan were Russian Soldiers
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/09/berkut-officers-killing-on-maidan-were.html#

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 04:26 PM
Ukrainians who visit cemeteries in Russia-invaded Luhansk & Donetsk see countless fresh graves of Russian soldiers.

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 05:32 PM
Luhansk: OSCE observers detect 13 Grad missile batteries in banned area
http://zik.ua/en/news/2017/05/20/osce_observers_detect_13_grad_missile_batteries_in _banned_area_1099745#…

This is one heck of artillery punch.....

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 06:50 PM
BREAKING Russian re-qualified 26 DNR terrorists to be send to Syria as PMC Wagner mercs. Only 8 returned alive.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/866355075710693376#

OUTLAW 09
05-21-2017, 07:33 PM
Heavy shelling's and ground attacks tonight along the entire Minsk 2 front line....

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 07:31 AM
Kremlin social media kills: banned Russian Facebook clone reportedly carries recruitment ads for Putin's hybrid army in Ukraine

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 07:34 AM
Trump budget would convert Ukraine's military grants to loans – media
https://www.unian.info/politics/1934419-trump-budget-would-convert-ukraines-military-grants-to-loans-media.html#

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 07:51 AM
Unconfirmed but if true...IMPORTANT

There are unconfirmed reports of Russian Forces amassing in two places in eastern #Ukraine: #Donetsk and #Dokuchaevsk.

OSCE has been seeing a massive build up in these two areas as well...and has reported on them complete with UAV imagery....what is not being seen are tanks and IFVs being stored in every available...barn...empty factory building and open farm shed...

There are several non-linked sources saying the same thing #Russia concentrating regulars and latest tanks behind the contact line.

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 08:24 AM
48 attacks on Ukrainian troop’s positions involving mortars, AA guns, IFVs and tank recorded yesterday, - ATO HQ

Lavrov vehemently stresses war in Ukraine is "civil war". Yet in Donetsk the terrorists hang pictures of Putin & MoD

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 12:43 PM
IR summary: the occupiers sharply strengthen the air defense system in the Gorlovka area
http://dlvr.it/PCS5q8

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 06:03 PM
Reports of heavy shelling in #Krashohorivka:

Artillery is active in #Donetsk. Fighting at the #Vuhlehirsk frontline.

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 06:41 PM
Russia’s war in east Ukraine cost Moscow $ 2 billion in 2016
http://news.liga.net/news/politics/14748204-moskva_potratila_2_mlrd_na_terroristov_v_donbasse_ v_2016_m_godu.htm#

OUTLAW 09
05-22-2017, 06:44 PM
Will comment more on this in the coming days

MFA Russia 🇷🇺

@mfa_russia
#Nebenzya: We believe it would be logical to develop cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU
http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2762935#

OUTLAW 09
05-23-2017, 06:46 AM
Russian Hybrid Army used tanks, artillery and GRAD MLRS yesterday and now blame Ukrainian Army for it

OUTLAW 09
05-23-2017, 07:18 AM
Ukrainian volunteer says 53rd brigade moved 1km closer to the occupied city of #Debaltseve after enemy provocations

NOTE..under Minsk 2 front lines agreement ...Debaltseve was in fact suppose to be UAF controlled but Putin ordered an attack on it just prior to singing Minsk 2....

It sounds like an artillery duel now, russian guns fire from #Makiivka outskirts, Ukrainian arty returns fire from #Avdiivka outskirts.

OUTLAW 09
05-23-2017, 07:19 AM
Donbas militants attack Ukraine 59 times in last day, 4 UAF WIA's

OUTLAW 09
05-24-2017, 04:50 AM
2000 FSB Spetsnaz (Special Forces) will hold "exercises" in occupied #Crimea for next several days
http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/

OUTLAW 09
05-24-2017, 09:37 AM
Strong battle in #Mariinka since about one hour

Maryinka - As of 12:10PM battle was still ongoing, schools closed, parents asked to take home the children.



Ukraine MIA and Prosecutor General commenced special operation around Ukraine. Detained so far 450 persons.

Ukraine arrests 23 former heads of regional tax offices today.
Unprecedented mass anti-corruption crackdown.

OUTLAW 09
05-24-2017, 09:48 AM
53 Russian shelling and ground attacks yesterday on UAF positions...

OUTLAW 09
05-24-2017, 10:33 AM
Even cats are fighting in UAF positions against Russian attacks...

OUTLAW 09
05-24-2017, 10:52 AM
Ukraine wants to cancel the publication of navigation information by Crimea airport to end the ALL the flights to the occupied Crimea.

OUTLAW 09
05-24-2017, 10:58 AM
Unidentified drones again spotted monitoring Swedish military exercises, this time in Gotland.

Smoke rises to the east and south-east of Avdiivka, Ukraine. This is the front line of Russia's invasion of Europe.

OUTLAW 09
05-24-2017, 10:59 AM
Ukraine positions next to #Debaltseve shelled with 93 mm RPO Shmel. Ammunition made in Russia in 2003, never exported to Ukraine - SSU.

OUTLAW 09
05-25-2017, 10:43 AM
Wad of 3.6 million USD in cash seized in Ukraine from ex-head of Tax Authority during biggest corruption crackdown.
https://twitter.com/baraban040867/status/867342561345720320#

OUTLAW 09
05-25-2017, 10:50 AM
Gold, works of art, tons of cash seized from Kyiv tax service ex-Chief Nyzenko, - Interior Minister Avakov. PHOTOS
http://dlvr.it/PDq47x

OUTLAW 09
05-25-2017, 10:54 AM
Ukraine reports 2 WIAs amid 50 enemy attacks in last day

OUTLAW 09
05-25-2017, 03:43 PM
Comments coming from a current Donbass mercenary leader.....

Khodakovsky warlord: If in august 2014 Russia would not had intervene and wouldn't have helped, we would have lost in 2-3 weeks.

He went on..if there were not 100K Russian troops behind us we would be rolled over by the UAF.....

OUTLAW 09
05-26-2017, 06:25 AM
NEWS
#Kremlin-loyal troops attacked Krasnohorivka with heavy artillery last night, also hitting the town's operating hospital.

OUTLAW 09
05-26-2017, 02:38 PM
How 2000 RU FSB special forces in the occupied Crimea trained to capture Ukrainian objects
Video
https://youtu.be/vsM2HZqQMd8

Azor
05-26-2017, 07:17 PM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-electronic-warfare-ukraine-real-imaginable/


Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 71
By: Sergey Sukhankin



The outbreak of war in the Donbas region (April 2014) turned Ukraine into one of the main targets of Russian information warfare, information-psychological operations, as well as cyberattacks and electronic warfare. Within the past three years, Ukraine has been subjected to no less than 7,000 cyberattacks. Ukrainian cyber expert Sergey Radkevych recently claimed that “Ukraine is in a state of cyber war with Russia” and that Russian cyber activities pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s national security (Sprotyv.info, May 5).


Furthermore, military clashes in Donbas have once again demonstrated that Russian military strategists and experts believe Electronic Warfare (EW) has become the backbone of “warfare of the future.” Western sources have claimed that from December 2015, Russia started to act much more decisively aiming to “achieve kinetic effects by delivering severe blows to Ukrainian critical infrastructure” (Cna.org, March 2017). Namely, these activities included damaging/destroying command-and-control networks through jamming radio communications, hampering the work of radar systems, and muting GPS signals. The main obstacle, however, was in the lack of concrete proof and factual data pertaining to tools, gadgets and other means used by the Russians while waging EW against Ukraine. But thanks to independent investigations conducted by Ukrainian activists and cyber specialists, it is now possible to speak about Russian involvement in EW against Ukraine as an undisputed fact. And the data presented by the Ukrainians illuminates many points of ambiguity regarding Russia’s use of EW in Donbas.


In this regard, it is possible to identify six noticeable means Russia has employed EW during the course of 2014–2017 (Informnapalm.org, May 2, 2016):



The RB-341В “Leer-3” complex is designed for jamming GSM (cellular) signals with the support of Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and transmitting information. These up-to-date weapons systems were spotted near the city of Donetsk in May 2016.


The RB-301B “Borisoglebsk-2” complex is one of the most advanced systems of electronic suppression. It is designed for radio intelligence and jamming of HF/UHF (both terrestrial and aircraft) radio channels as well as mobile terminals and trunked radios at the tactical and operational-tactical command levels. It was introduced to the Russian armed forces in 2013 (even though it was created in 2009), when the first units were deployed to the territory of the Southern Military District (SMD). Later it was spotted in 2015 in the occupied Ukrainian city of Luhansk. Also, complexes of this type frequently appear near the Anti-Terrorism Operation (ATO—the Ukrainian military’s term for its armed activities against Russia-backed separatist forces) zone. Some sources have claimed that this complex played a decisive role in the Battle of Debaltseve (January 2015), one of the heaviest defeats suffered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to date.


The R-934UM automated jamming station was first spotted near Luhansk in 2015, where it was working together with an F-330KMA command unit. Previously, this station appeared near the eastern Ukrainian cities of Horlivka and Makiivka. Russian sources also admitted that this station “has been successfully employed in local military conflicts,” but did not elaborate further (Protek-vrn.ru, accessed May 24).


Between 2015 and 2016, the R-330Zh “Zhitel” automated jamming station was spotted in Horlivka, Makiivka and Zaytsevo. This system is deployed with an infantry brigade based in the SMD (on the territory of Chechnya). This equipment may have been used by separatist forces near Debaltseve in 2015 as well.


The R-381T2 UHF radio monitoring station (R-381T “Taran” complex) and “Torn” radio intelligence complexes were observed with joint Russian-separatist forces in 2015 near Donetsk International Airport.
Finally, the PSNR-8 Kredo-M1 (1L120) portable ground reconnaissance station is designed to detect moving targets on the ground or on the water and to support artillery fire at any time of day, regardless of the season. Importantly, this system can also be used in conditions of low visibility. It has been spotted on the territory of Luhansk oblast (Blahodatne, Olhynka, Buhas and Volnovakha).


All in all, according to Ukrainian sources, by March 22, 2017, the Russia-backed separatists received 43 pieces of modern EW equipment, which were used against the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbas region/ATO area (Begemot.media, March 26).


In the meantime, Ukrainian specialists (“Armiya SOS”) were able to intercept signals from “the newest electronic warfare (EW) stations of the Russian Air Force” located in Crimea (Cape Tarkhankut) (Informnapalm.org, April 11). This was done by employing the so-called HackRF One gadget—a software defined radio for transmission/reception of radio signals in the range of 1 megahertz–6 gigahertz). The result of this investigation (conducted in March 2017) is a revelation. It suggests the presence in Crimea of Mi-8MTPR-1 helicopters equipped with Rychag-AV jamming stations, making these aircraft formidable weapons for EW operations. One of the main ways these systems have been employed by Russia has been to deal with counter-air defense systems and complexes by reducing their effectiveness though muting and jamming their radio signals. Results of Ukraine’s investigation from this past March show that, in 2016, the Russian side deployed helicopters of this type on the territories of both the SMD and the Western Military District (WMD).


All this leads to the following conclusions:


First, the impressive capabilities of Ukrainian hackers and open-source-intelligence volunteers in disclosing Russian EW have not yet been met with any significant level of support from the Ukrainian government. Traditional problems such as bureaucracy, red tape and a slow pace of decision-making do not allow the government to rapidly apply the results of these investigations to the needs of the Armed Forces and Ukrainian cyber security. This drastically reduces the potential of the Ukrainian military and convinces the Russian side of its unconditional superiority.


Second, even though Russian capabilities in the domain of EW have grown exponentially since 2014, they still cannot deliver total invulnerability. The most recent events in Syria (the United States’ April 7 cruise missile strike on al-Shayrat Airbase—see EDM, April 10) and the fact that Ukraine managed to intercept Russian signals in Crimea suggest that the actual might of Russian EW capabilities is lower than frequently portrayed in the West.


Finally, Crimea as well as Kaliningrad oblast—as two heavily militarized anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) “bubbles”—together constitute key links in Russia’s growing “arc of counter-containment” (see EDM, January 18). And these areas could increasingly be used by the Kremlin as “cyber bastions” as well.

OUTLAW 09
05-27-2017, 09:13 AM
61 attacks on Ukrainian positions yesterday, 2 Ukrainian soldiers WIA

OUTLAW 09
05-27-2017, 09:16 AM
Latitude 67N SIGINT @Sigint67n
RuAF strategic AF sw net up with voice traffic, multiple units

W marker and mission traffic - Tu95/160?

OUTLAW 09
05-27-2017, 10:46 AM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-electronic-warfare-ukraine-real-imaginable/


Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 71
By: Sergey Sukhankin

You have to love articles that do not "get it"....the US had until 1993 a growing and aggressive CEWI capability with a number of new pieces of equipment which did now what the Russians have recently deployed BUT in 1993 not in 2017. The Army doctrine was there to fight an aggressive EW war inside LandAir Battle which was the counter to the Warsaw Pact in say 1989 to 1990.

The Army had as well a CEWI training center located at Ft. Devens and had built for literally millions of dollars a complete CEWI equipment testing facility that allowed the equipment to be powered up, used in real life and not distrub commerical signals and not be seen by Soviet satellites..then when the base deactivated in 1994 all of this facility was simple stripped out and stored and or sold off as scrap metal ......

A number of the these CEWI BNs were in fact deployed in Desert Storm to jam and disrupt Saddams military and they functioned extremely well....

Then in about 1993 there was a decision and the Army stood up, equipped and manned new Reserve CEWI BNs...as the CEWI mission was moved from Active Army MI to the Reserve Army MI units....

THEN just as suddenly the Army decided based on the Bush peace dividend from the Desert Storm era and no foreseeable Russian threat to RIF the military in size and basically disbanded all CEWI capacity and it was never there since then....literally gone overnight.

At the time of the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014 the US Army had roughly a total of 80 odd EW officers BUT focused mainly on the counter IED EW side of things...jamming RC IEDs mainly.....

For the counter IED fight in Iraq and later AFG especially in 2006 the US Army had to use Naval EWO officers from the carriers to deploy with US Army units into Iraq until the Army could train in a 6 weeks shake and bake EW course EW officers to replace them.

AND then we see what we see in eastern Ukraine and the US Army now playing catch up and learning how to manuever troops and equipment in complete radio silence and or in a total EW environment regardless of what the Russians use or UAVs being jammed and downed and satcom being disrupted etc....

Right now we are on the losing side of EW..and no new equipment is scheduled for deployment until around 2019...and or maybe 2020..

Nowhere in the article is this story........

So even if the Russians have half of what we think they have it is still more than what we have..simple as that....and when it comes to using UAVs inconjunction with artillery and recon...the Russians have now tons of combat experience and the US Army is just starting to relearn that skill set...

BTW..how do I know of this..I was involved in building the CEWI doctrine, training the personnel to doctrinal standards and then deploying the CEWI BNs...and equipment.

OUTLAW 09
05-27-2017, 02:34 PM
Militants rained 152mm shells on Ukraine troops near Avdiyivka for 40 minutes Friday – ATO HQ

OUTLAW 09
05-27-2017, 04:21 PM
2,000 Russian Special Forces in #Crimea exercise to seize Ukrainian property
https://informnapalm.org/en/2-000-russian-special-forces-crimea-exercise-seize-ukrainian-property-video/#

OUTLAW 09
05-28-2017, 09:17 AM
49 attacks on Ukrainian positions yesterday, 8 soldiers were wounded

OUTLAW 09
05-28-2017, 09:19 AM
Krasnhorivka: heavy damage in the town after Russian artillery attack
VIDEO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmQVNX01MgY#

Syrian tactic now being used in Ukraine.....practiced by Russian although using artillery in Ukraine not their AF.....

OUTLAW 09
05-28-2017, 10:24 AM
80% of those assigned to the OSCE SMM as so call neutral observers are really Russian military personnel....

Olga Skripovska, a chairman of the #Donetsk Reg Office of @OSCE_SMM to #Ukraine, at the terrorists' 9th May parade in occupied Donetsk...

OUTLAW 09
05-28-2017, 10:53 AM
MORE Russian KIAs being shipped back to Russia after this latest round of heavy fighting.....

06:40 #Donetsk: a Gazel marked 'Cargo 200', # plate 041-98 EA, escorted by Vaz-2121 w/RU # plates went tow/#Makiivka ignoring traffic lights

OUTLAW 09
05-28-2017, 03:36 PM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-electronic-warfare-ukraine-real-imaginable/


Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 71
By: Sergey Sukhankin

It is just not only the CEWI side that has problems.....this system was a gold mine for defense contractors just as the coming EW will be.....


The Army’s chief of staff told lawmakers Thursday he’s not convinced the service’s troubled Warfighter Information Network-Tactical will survive the rigors of combat.
WIN-T was part of the Army’s Future Combat Systems effort in 2003. After FCS was canceled in 2009, the service tried to salvage the program as part of an effort to create secure battlefield communications for mounted forces on the move — an effort led by General Dynamics Corp. and that has cost about $6 billion.
Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, voiced his concerns about WIN-T to Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley at a May 25 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.
“I have seen credible reports that WIN-T has ineffective line-of-sight communications,” Cotton said. “It is too fragile to survive in a contested environment and has an electromagnetic signature so loud that it practically would call for enemy artillery on the top of its user’s heads.
“Have you seen similar reports?” Cotton asked the general.
Milley told Cotton that “we share the same concerns” and that he is leading “a rigorous, thorough and painful review of the entire communications, electromagnetic capability of the U.S. Army,” including WIN-T.
“Frankly, my concern is these systems may or may not work in the conditions of combat that I envision in the future,” he said, citing concerns that WIN-T is unable to operate on the move or in large, complex urban areas.
“And there is a whole series of other things, and it is fragile and it is vulnerable, so we are taking a very, very deep, hard, wide look.”
The review will likely take another four to six weeks to complete, Milley said.
Milley said he recently received a letter from the “House with 176 signatures on it and a letter from the Senate with several signatures on it asking me to accelerate that program.”
“I am not going to accelerate it until I am convinced it will work in combat against the enemies of our country that may be coming in the future,” he said.
Cotton, along with Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, pointed to WIN-T’s $6 billion price tag over the past decade and said it’s time for the Army to make a final decision on the system’s future.
“If the program is not working, it doesn’t seem that we should be accelerating more money into it until we can get it to work or find a replacement,” Cotton said.

OUTLAW 09
05-28-2017, 05:31 PM
20:10 [#Avdiivka]: #Promka - tough battle

Heavy ongoing shellings and ground attack.....

Azor
05-28-2017, 10:22 PM
You have to love articles that do not "get it"....the US had until 1993 a growing and aggressive CEWI capability with a number of new pieces of equipment which did now what the Russians have recently deployed BUT in 1993 not in 2017. The Army doctrine was there to fight an aggressive EW war inside LandAir Battle which was the counter to the Warsaw Pact in say 1989 to 1990.

The Army had as well a CEWI training center located at Ft. Devens and had built for literally millions of dollars a complete CEWI equipment testing facility that allowed the equipment to be powered up, used in real life and not distrub commerical signals and not be seen by Soviet satellites..then when the base deactivated in 1994 all of this facility was simple stripped out and stored and or sold off as scrap metal ......

A number of the these CEWI BNs were in fact deployed in Desert Storm to jam and disrupt Saddams military and they functioned extremely well....

Then in about 1993 there was a decision and the Army stood up, equipped and manned new Reserve CEWI BNs...as the CEWI mission was moved from Active Army MI to the Reserve Army MI units....

THEN just as suddenly the Army decided based on the Bush peace dividend from the Desert Storm era and no foreseeable Russian threat to RIF the military in size and basically disbanded all CEWI capacity and it was never there since then....literally gone overnight.

At the time of the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014 the US Army had roughly a total of 80 odd EW officers BUT focused mainly on the counter IED EW side of things...jamming RC IEDs mainly.....

For the counter IED fight in Iraq and later AFG especially in 2006 the US Army had to use Naval EWO officers from the carriers to deploy with US Army units into Iraq until the Army could train in a 6 weeks shake and bake EW course EW officers to replace them.

AND then we see what we see in eastern Ukraine and the US Army now playing catch up and learning how to manuever troops and equipment in complete radio silence and or in a total EW environment regardless of what the Russians use or UAVs being jammed and downed and satcom being disrupted etc....

Right now we are on the losing side of EW..and no new equipment is scheduled for deployment until around 2019...and or maybe 2020..

Nowhere in the article is this story........

So even if the Russians have half of what we think they have it is still more than what we have..simple as that....and when it comes to using UAVs inconjunction with artillery and recon...the Russians have now tons of combat experience and the US Army is just starting to relearn that skill set...

BTW..how do I know of this..I was involved in building the CEWI doctrine, training the personnel to doctrinal standards and then deploying the CEWI BNs...and equipment.

Perhaps those who don’t fully read articles shouldn’t make such hasty judgments? Just a thought…

Sukhankin only referred to U.S. EM warfare capabilities with regard to the recent TLAM strike on Shayrat, and it was tangential to his specific points.

As for U.S. capabilities, much of the Army’s EMW role has been taken over by the Air Force, particularly given the upgrades to the F-22, the EMW mission given to the F-35. The U.S. was certainly not ignoring this aspect of warfare as the entire C4ISR and precision-strike complexes rely upon its domination. Do you think that Boeing's CHAMP missile is the only beast in the woods? Did you miss the work by the DOD’s Strategic Capabilities Office and the Army’s Rapid Capabilities Office, which has equipped U.S. Army units in Europe with new EMW equipment?

I appreciate that you have first-hand experience of the hollowing out created by the “peace dividend” and the “Iraq First” policy of the Bush Administration, but EM-cyberwarfare is quickly becoming as secretive and cutting edge a capability as 5th Generation aircraft, the LRASM/LRSO family of missiles, submarine acoustics, etc. If Russia can play catch-up in a few years in the midst of foreign adventures and budgetary constraints, so too can the U.S., if the popular narrative of the U.S. being behind in this area is true, which I don’t agree with. The U.S. has a long history of playing the underdog in order to: (a) preserve secrecy in an open and democratic society; (b) possibly confuse adversaries and rivals; and (c) ensure adequate funding from Congress.

The Third Offset is not something that can be rolled out from a hangar for a big reveal, as the B-2 was. It will be largely invisible and only the enemy, when they are deaf, dumb and blind, will feel its effects.

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 09:57 AM
Perhaps those who don’t fully read articles shouldn’t make such hasty judgments? Just a thought…

Sukhankin only referred to U.S. EM warfare capabilities with regard to the recent TLAM strike on Shayrat, and it was tangential to his specific points.

As for U.S. capabilities, much of the Army’s EMW role has been taken over by the Air Force, particularly given the upgrades to the F-22, the EMW mission given to the F-35. The U.S. was certainly not ignoring this aspect of warfare as the entire C4ISR and precision-strike complexes rely upon its domination. Do you think that Boeing's CHAMP missile is the only beast in the woods? Did you miss the work by the DOD’s Strategic Capabilities Office and the Army’s Rapid Capabilities Office, which has equipped U.S. Army units in Europe with new EMW equipment?

I appreciate that you have first-hand experience of the hollowing out created by the “peace dividend” and the “Iraq First” policy of the Bush Administration, but EM-cyberwarfare is quickly becoming as secretive and cutting edge a capability as 5th Generation aircraft, the LRASM/LRSO family of missiles, submarine acoustics, etc. If Russia can play catch-up in a few years in the midst of foreign adventures and budgetary constraints, so too can the U.S., if the popular narrative of the U.S. being behind in this area is true, which I don’t agree with. The U.S. has a long history of playing the underdog in order to: (a) preserve secrecy in an open and democratic society; (b) possibly confuse adversaries and rivals; and (c) ensure adequate funding from Congress.

The Third Offset is not something that can be rolled out from a hangar for a big reveal, as the B-2 was. It will be largely invisible and only the enemy, when they are deaf, dumb and blind, will feel its effects.

You still do not "get it"...the US Army does not even have a weak EW ability and yes the AF flies but it cannot constantly park aircraft over a ground manuever unit in order to provide a constant 24 X 7 EW protection....

Finally believe me when I say there is none to a little EW ability inside a US BCT ...

Same goes for ground air defense abilities at low flying attack targets...is the Army going to wait for some USAF aircraft to arrive to down a Mi24????

The US military is not hiding anything as it got basically out of and rid of EW equipment, manning and officers in the 90s and that has remained that way since.

Why is it so hard to envision that the US military is actually behind in something????

The F35 EW mission you so talk about is not for ground support but for SEAD....simple as that..there has been some talk about bringing back the A6s again for that mission set as they did in VN.....as the A6 is cheaper and can loiter longer.

ARE you trying to sell me that a F35 will loiter for hours over ground troops??

Last time I checked the only loiter ac the AF has for that type of mission is the A10 but it is certainly not an EW ac......

BUT WAIT there are a few Broncos left in service but again not an EW ac...

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 10:02 AM
Seems this year target is Krasnohorivka, frontline W-NW of Donetsk is very active few nights in a row.

Though not many options: Russia needs "limited engagement", and any significant change of map could trigger "full-scale engagement".

Many reports/rumors of coming escalation in Eastern Ukraine - with new Rus. forces coming(Dokuchaevsk,Donetsk), nothing unusual but "terror attacks media aftermath" could be used to attempt new Maryinka-style offensive(same 27 May-5 June)

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 10:05 AM
Russian senator: Macron inviting Putin to Paris 2day signals EU’s rejection of attempts to isolate Russia. “Obama’s policy has quietly died"

Wishful thinking by this Russian as Marcon for the first time and as a member of Normandy 4....e called the "Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine" ...a "Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine"...first western country to actually state that....

Ukraine's Defense Ministry says 98 soldiers were killed & 800 wounded in Donbas in 2017.

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 10:19 AM
Perhaps those who don’t fully read articles shouldn’t make such hasty judgments? Just a thought…

Sukhankin only referred to U.S. EM warfare capabilities with regard to the recent TLAM strike on Shayrat, and it was tangential to his specific points.

As for U.S. capabilities, much of the Army’s EMW role has been taken over by the Air Force, particularly given the upgrades to the F-22, the EMW mission given to the F-35. The U.S. was certainly not ignoring this aspect of warfare as the entire C4ISR and precision-strike complexes rely upon its domination. Do you think that Boeing's CHAMP missile is the only beast in the woods? Did you miss the work by the DOD’s Strategic Capabilities Office and the Army’s Rapid Capabilities Office, which has equipped U.S. Army units in Europe with new EMW equipment?

I appreciate that you have first-hand experience of the hollowing out created by the “peace dividend” and the “Iraq First” policy of the Bush Administration, but EM-cyberwarfare is quickly becoming as secretive and cutting edge a capability as 5th Generation aircraft, the LRASM/LRSO family of missiles, submarine acoustics, etc. If Russia can play catch-up in a few years in the midst of foreign adventures and budgetary constraints, so too can the U.S., if the popular narrative of the U.S. being behind in this area is true, which I don’t agree with. The U.S. has a long history of playing the underdog in order to: (a) preserve secrecy in an open and democratic society; (b) possibly confuse adversaries and rivals; and (c) ensure adequate funding from Congress.

The Third Offset is not something that can be rolled out from a hangar for a big reveal, as the B-2 was. It will be largely invisible and only the enemy, when they are deaf, dumb and blind, will feel its effects.

This is why there's growing European discussion of an extreme option to replace US commitments: a Euro nukes program
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/world/europe/european-union-nuclear-weapons.html?mtrref=t.co&gwh=1E751149FA2234181E364F0C1A982588&gwt=pay

Merkel's comment didn't come out of nowhere. Germans have spent months contemplating – and preparing for – a break with the US.

One sr German official really stressed this: Our closest ally is not just going away, but may turn its power against us. Think about that.

Their fear wasn't just that Trump would be an unreliable ally, but that his attacks on the EU and NATO would make the US a threat to Europe.

The Germans really fear Europe will fall apart w/o the US. But they saw Trump as a potential threat to their most core national interests.

They were quite open about their plan: appease Trump and proceed normally. But quietly prepare a Plan B in case that fails. We may be there.

New NATO motto: Keep the Americans out, the Russians in, and the Germans up.

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 10:25 AM
From the annexation of Crimea to the war in Donbas: the GRU curator of the DPR terrorists was identified:
https://informnapalm.org/en/from-the-annexation-of-crimea-to-the-war-in-donbas-the-gru-curator-of-the-dpr-terrorists-was-identified/#

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 10:31 AM
Azor...something for you as this development has been ongoing for the last two years....

Russia is Bringing Back Its World War II 'Shock Armies'
https://lnkd.in/gen2AHv

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 10:32 AM
ATO spox: As per UA mil intel, last week confirmed casualties of the enemy were 16 KIA and 27 WIA, as well as 1 destroyed Ural vehicle

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 05:03 PM
U.S. soldier who fought with Russian-backed militants has been discharged from the Army
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/05/29/u-s-soldier-who-fought-with-russian-backed-militants-has-been-discharged-from-the-army/?utm_term=.687cc67b2c89 …

Previously posted this info.....

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 05:10 PM
.@PavloKlimkin at #GLOBSEC2017: 'My advice to Moldova - just shut down the Russian TV channels that are spouting propaganda'.

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 06:34 PM
Numbers-Stations.com @Spy_Stations

New more 30 Russian military objects in occupied Crimea now on our map
http://www.numbers-stations.com/military/russia/russian-military-airfields-and-communications-objects-around-nato-ukrainian-and-finnish-borders/ …

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 06:34 PM
.@PavloKlimkin at #GLOBSEC2017: 'My advice to Moldova - just shut down the Russian TV channels that are spouting propaganda'.

Moldova kicks out 5 russian spies (diplomats).

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 06:58 PM
MFA of Ukraine ����
✔ @MFA_Ukraine FM @PavloKlimkin: sealing the UA-RU border is key to stop inflow of Russian weapons, ammunition, troops and militants to #Donbas.

Azor
05-29-2017, 07:04 PM
You still do not "get it"...the US Army does not even have a weak EW ability and yes the AF flies but it cannot constantly park aircraft over a ground manuever unit in order to provide a constant 24 X 7 EW protection...Finally believe me when I say there is none to a little EW ability inside a US BCT…Same goes for ground air defense abilities at low flying attack targets...is the Army going to wait for some USAF aircraft to arrive to down a Mi24???? The US military is not hiding anything as it got basically out of and rid of EW equipment, manning and officers in the 90s and that has remained that way since…Why is it so hard to envision that the US military is actually behind in something???? The F35 EW mission you so talk about is not for ground support but for SEAD....simple as that..there has been some talk about bringing back the A6s again for that mission set as they did in VN.....as the A6 is cheaper and can loiter longer. ARE you trying to sell me that a F35 will loiter for hours over ground troops?? Last time I checked the only loiter ac the AF has for that type of mission is the A10 but it is certainly not an EW ac...

Outlaw,

Firstly, I am not trying to sell you anything. What I am asserting however, is that the situation is perhaps not as dire as various analysts and commentators make it out to be. Here are some points to consider:


The Russian Army is effectively on its own and is not composed as a global expeditionary force. It is intended to operate without significant support from the other services and close to its supply lines. This is why the Russian Army will always place a premium on generating organic fires, air defense and EM warfare
The U.S. Army is intended for expeditionary purposes, making it lighter for ease of mobility
The U.S. Army also operates as part of a Joint Force and is reliant upon air superiority or supremacy by U.S. aviation (USAF and USMC)
The U.S. Army as a bureaucratic institution has been a major beneficiary of defense largesse during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it is acting to find new missions to ensure funding


For instance, the endless refrain about NATO assets in the European theater being unable to prevent or repel a Russian invasion in the Baltics without reinforcements and mobilization, is disingenuous. Even with 60% of U.S. forces committed to the Asia-Pacific theater, the USAF and USN assets can saturate Russian air defenses and other targets with cruise missiles from stand-off ranges before Riga falls i.e. well within the 60-hour window.

The reports by RAND and Carnegie are thinly-veiled attempts to expand USAE and make it the primary instrument of conventional deterrence against Russia. Given that the Army’s primacy caused the F-22 production to be capped at under 200 aircraft, the gall is quite astounding.

Secondly, as regards the role of U.S. aviation in EM warfare, this is part of the Third Offset. Have you considered EMW missiles eliminating threats ahead of the ground forces or EMW UAVs loitering overhead? The F-35 is not a like-for-like replacement but a new concept altogether. It may well prove to be a failure in practice, but conceptually, it is the future.

Thirdly, I agree that the Army needs to be bolstered in key areas, but it also needs to be cut down to size.


This is why there's growing European discussion of an extreme option to replace US commitments: a Euro nukes program

No, Outlaw. You’re missing the real story here, which is that Germany is willing to pay some or most of the costs of maintaining the French nuclear deterrent in exchange for being covered by it, because this is less expensive than conventional deterrence i.e. spending 2% or more of GDP on defense.

Every country is aware that nuclear deterrence is cheaper than conventional deterrence. Yet the idea of Germany controlling nuclear weapons will have the same reactions in many European countries as the idea of Japanese nuclear weapons would have on Southeast Asia.


Merkel's comment didn't come out of nowhere. Germans have spent months contemplating – and preparing for – a break with the US.

One sr German official really stressed this: Our closest ally is not just going away, but may turn its power against us. Think about that.

Their fear wasn't just that Trump would be an unreliable ally, but that his attacks on the EU and NATO would make the US a threat to Europe.

The Germans really fear Europe will fall apart w/o the US. But they saw Trump as a potential threat to their most core national interests.

They were quite open about their plan: appease Trump and proceed normally. But quietly prepare a Plan B in case that fails. We may be there.

New NATO motto: Keep the Americans out, the Russians in, and the Germans up.

Huh? Talk about the tail wagging the dog. This is utterly ludicrous. Europe will not accept Germany as its leader for obvious reasons and Germany is not about to break the Trans-Atlantic Alliance. However, the German government knows the anti-Americanism and “Progressive” values sell well in Germany, and are a convenient distraction to Germany backstopping the Euro, dealing with migrants, hollowing out the Bundeswehr, etc.


Azor...something for you as this development has been ongoing for the last two years....

Russia is Bringing Back Its World War II 'Shock Armies'

Yeah, I’ve known about this since it was announced. A big yawn here.

OUTLAW 09
05-29-2017, 07:06 PM
Russia deploys troops from the 291st Artillery Brigade of the Russian Army to boost its invasion force in Donbas.
http://uacrisis.org/56776-average

OUTLAW 09
05-30-2017, 09:38 AM
50 enemy attacks by Russia's troops in Donbas result in 3 UAF WIA.
Escalation in Luhansk sector.

OUTLAW 09
05-30-2017, 02:33 PM
Russian disinformation...it was the Moldavian government that kicked out five Russian officials for spying not so proEU group or agency....

Moldovan president vows to "punish" pro-EU forces trying to "provoke" Kremlin with expulsion of Russian diplomats.
http://tass.ru/pmef-2017/articles/4294067#

Moldavian President has not said a single word on this matter...

OUTLAW 09
05-31-2017, 10:28 AM
“Russian Air Defense Officer Found Exactly Where Putin Said He Was Not” by @DFRLab
https://medium.com/dfrlab/russian-air-defense-officer-found-exactly-where-putin-said-he-was-not-61a5c359af02#

OUTLAW 09
05-31-2017, 10:37 AM
Ukraine has set an absolute record for the country in the export of malt -
93 000 tonnes
http://uprom.info/news/agro/ukrayina-vstanovila-absolyutniy-rekord-z-eksportu-solodu#

OUTLAW 09
05-31-2017, 05:33 PM
Outlaw,

Firstly, I am not trying to sell you anything. What I am asserting however, is that the situation is perhaps not as dire as various analysts and commentators make it out to be. Here are some points to consider:


The Russian Army is effectively on its own and is not composed as a global expeditionary force. It is intended to operate without significant support from the other services and close to its supply lines. This is why the Russian Army will always place a premium on generating organic fires, air defense and EM warfare
The U.S. Army is intended for expeditionary purposes, making it lighter for ease of mobility
The U.S. Army also operates as part of a Joint Force and is reliant upon air superiority or supremacy by U.S. aviation (USAF and USMC)
The U.S. Army as a bureaucratic institution has been a major beneficiary of defense largesse during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it is acting to find new missions to ensure funding


For instance, the endless refrain about NATO assets in the European theater being unable to prevent or repel a Russian invasion in the Baltics without reinforcements and mobilization, is disingenuous. Even with 60% of U.S. forces committed to the Asia-Pacific theater, the USAF and USN assets can saturate Russian air defenses and other targets with cruise missiles from stand-off ranges before Riga falls i.e. well within the 60-hour window.

The reports by RAND and Carnegie are thinly-veiled attempts to expand USAE and make it the primary instrument of conventional deterrence against Russia. Given that the Army’s primacy caused the F-22 production to be capped at under 200 aircraft, the gall is quite astounding.

Secondly, as regards the role of U.S. aviation in EM warfare, this is part of the Third Offset. Have you considered EMW missiles eliminating threats ahead of the ground forces or EMW UAVs loitering overhead? The F-35 is not a like-for-like replacement but a new concept altogether. It may well prove to be a failure in practice, but conceptually, it is the future.

Thirdly, I agree that the Army needs to be bolstered in key areas, but it also needs to be cut down to size.



No, Outlaw. You’re missing the real story here, which is that Germany is willing to pay some or most of the costs of maintaining the French nuclear deterrent in exchange for being covered by it, because this is less expensive than conventional deterrence i.e. spending 2% or more of GDP on defense.

Every country is aware that nuclear deterrence is cheaper than conventional deterrence. Yet the idea of Germany controlling nuclear weapons will have the same reactions in many European countries as the idea of Japanese nuclear weapons would have on Southeast Asia.



Huh? Talk about the tail wagging the dog. This is utterly ludicrous. Europe will not accept Germany as its leader for obvious reasons and Germany is not about to break the Trans-Atlantic Alliance. However, the German government knows the anti-Americanism and “Progressive” values sell well in Germany, and are a convenient distraction to Germany backstopping the Euro, dealing with migrants, hollowing out the Bundeswehr, etc.

Yeah, I’ve known about this since it was announced. A big yawn here.

Russian Disinformation War Turns Into Physical Harassment Against @OSCE :
http://youtu.be/h3HUC0myGck?a

How Russian social media platforms have become a vehicle for some of the most heinous cyber attacks on Ukraine https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-social-media-seen-as-threat-to-ukraine-and-to-cybersecurity-1496055606#

Azor
05-31-2017, 08:34 PM
As for the Russo-Ukrainian War, it is "quieter" now than it was from November-February. There are no significant developments to report, as I follow the OSCE SMM and ISW.

OUTLAW 09
06-01-2017, 07:14 PM
Stockholm court hands Ukraine victory over Gazprom’s “take or pay” claim: 5 things to#know
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/06/02/stockholm-court-hands-ukraine-victory-over-gazproms-take-or-pay-claim-5-things-to-know/#arvlbdata

This is HUGE: Ukraine's state-owned giant Naftogaz won against Russia's Gazprom in th Stockholm arbitration. We are talking abt $18 BLN here

OUTLAW 09
06-02-2017, 07:20 AM
Will be making my final posting to this thread as nothing is really changing....the Russians just keep on attacking and the West ie Trump really has no intention on stopping Putin nor the aggression...

We have seen that outside of Trumps inherent interest in lifting all sanctions on Russia for Crimea and his invasion of eastern Ukraine meaning he might in fact eventually lift them while we now see that what he says he will do he will do and we see the closeness to Russia being expressed by Trump....in some aspects every similar to the way Putin functions...

Russian disinformation, hacking and propaganda efforts in their info war against the West actually against the US will still be posted and that will include any of these actions directed against Ukraine as well.

Azor
06-02-2017, 05:54 PM
Will be making my final posting to this thread as nothing is really changing....the Russians just keep on attacking and the West ie Trump really has no intention on stopping Putin nor the aggression...

We have seen that outside of Trumps inherent interest in lifting all sanctions on Russia for Crimea and his invasion of eastern Ukraine meaning he might in fact eventually lift them while we now see that what he says he will do he will do and we see the closeness to Russia being expressed by Trump....in some aspects every similar to the way Putin functions...

Russian disinformation, hacking and propaganda efforts in their info war against the West actually against the US will still be posted and that will include any of these actions directed against Ukraine as well.

The Russians do not "keep on attacking" Ukraine. The conflict is frozen with a low level of frontline violence, and an absence of major offensives or territorial changes. There are no significant developments to report in Ukraine, and have not been since Debaltseve. This situation will continue indefinitely and Ukraine's road to a just and transparent society as well as eventual membership in the EU, will be a very long one...

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2017, 01:42 PM
IMPORTANT FIND.....a completely new photo of the 332 Russian BUK that shot down MH17 popped up on social media and was achieved by @bellingcat.....photo was apparently taken near the shot down site

BUT....Russian GRU find out.....

IMPORTANT: social network account that hosted #BUK 2013 photo used in @bellingcat was just deleted. #MH17

Russian soclal media and government media completely freaking out and attacking the phot as "fake news" MUCH in the Trump style...

THIS is what they are trying to get you to accept...
@bellingcat providently planted photoshopped evidence in 2013, to be needed 4 years later), on a Russian social network..then hoped it would remain there for four years in order to be suddenly "discovered".....

Make sense to everyone of a sane mind????

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2017, 04:36 PM
IMPORTANT FIND.....a completely new photo of the 332 Russian BUK that shot down MH17 popped up on social media and was achieved by @bellingcat.....photo was apparently taken near the shot down site

BUT....Russian GRU find out.....

IMPORTANT: social network account that hosted #BUK 2013 photo used in @bellingcat was just deleted. #MH17

Russian soclal media and government media completely freaking out and attacking the phot as "fake news" MUCH in the Trump style...

THIS is what they are trying to get you to accept...
@bellingcat providently planted photoshopped evidence in 2013, to be needed 4 years later), on a Russian social network..then hoped it would remain there for four years in order to be suddenly "discovered".....

Make sense to everyone of a sane mind????

Day before #MH17 shot down, here's a Russian Special Forces commander in #Ukraine, begging for a BUK. Via JIT investigation

New @bellingcat report on #Russia's soldiers who drove the Buk missile launcher that downed #MH17 over #Ukraine
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/06/05/mh17-drivers-russian-june-july-2014-buk-convoy-trucks/ …

Russian Missile That Downed MH17 Identified By Digital Forensicshttps://en.hromadske.ua/posts/russian-missile-that-downed-mh17-identified-by-digital-forensics …

OUTLAW 09
06-05-2017, 06:32 PM
Transnistria asks Russia for help ‘to prevent blockade by #Ukraine and #Moldova’ http://uawire.org/news/transnistria-public-asks-russia-for-help-prevent-blockade-by-ukraine-and-moldova …

Azor
06-05-2017, 08:00 PM
By Patrick Tucker at Defense One: http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/06/poland-preparing-15-years-rising-tension-russia/138337/

Lasers, small drones, and more troops are among the ways Poland is preparing for 15 years of rising tensions — and perhaps even war — with Russia, according to a new report from its Ministry of Defense.

“Taking into account the asymmetry of military capabilities between Russia and NATO’s eastern flank members, such a situation creates a direct threat for Poland and the region,” reads the unclassified summary of the report, published in Polish and English. “It is not unrealistic that Russia could incite a regional conflict and dragging into it one or several NATO countries. Russia is also likely to provoke proxy wars in various parts of the world in order to exert pressure on the Western countries…It is highly probable for Moscow to incite social tensions and frozen conflicts in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.”

Titled “The Concept of Defence of the Republic of Poland,” the report lays out some key areas of investment for Poland’s military over the next 15 years, including small, kamikaze-style drones for use against Russian radar and lasers to disable enemy missiles and aircraft.

“On drones, we put more stress on simpler and more,” Tomasz Szatkowski, Undersecretary of State for Poland’s Ministry of National Defence said Saturday at the GLOBSEC 2017 Security Forum in Bratislava.

“There is some question about the current strike role of drones. There are some platforms, remotely piloted that you can use quite effectively in Afghanistan and Iraq. But in a highly contested environment, that might be questionable,” he said, referring to the very expensive MQ-9 Reaper drones made famous by counterrorism operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. “So we are thinking of a massive investment in ISR drones and kamikaze drones. We are already developing them and our surgical units are going to be equipped with such technologies, similar to those ISIS is using.”

Gen. Philip Breedlove, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe who joined Szatkowski for the GLOBSEC forum, said that smaller drones would become cheaper and more effective only through future breakthroughs in machine-to-machine communication, mission vision and autonomous flight. That’s a tall order even in large platforms, much less drones meant to be small enough to evade radar and be disposable.

“What would enable that swarm is machine-to-machine intelligent actions. If one set of machines is already being targeted, don’t keep sending decoys against that specific site and divert the decoys to another site.” What’s needed, he said, was “machine-to-machine conversation that allows our decoys and those penetrating strike weapons to be able to get to the target, learn on their way in, understand who is being targeted and who needs to be released to attack.”

Echoing the report, Szatkowski said Poland intends to invest in heavily in lasers. “I think there is a great promise with the whole aspect of directed energy. Also for second-tier actors” like Poland, he said. “That area may some of the defensive technologies more effective. Ground-based missile defense might become much more cost effective.”

“Some of the aspects of directed energy might allow us to control” how Russia might escalate a given military situation,” Szatkowski said

The new strategy is more than technological. It also calls for more military cooperation with the Visegrad Group of nations: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. “This cooperation should manifest itself in the intensification of exercises, the creation of joint commands and units, and – if possible – in the joint acquisition of military equipment,” the report says.

Poland will also enlarge its military — and in particular, the number of units that can operate semi-autonomously.

“For the first time in 30 years, the number of soldiers and civilian employees will grow significantly. In the next eight years, the total number of Polish Armed Forces will exceed 200,000,” the report says.

Szatkowski added: “Thirty years ago, in 1987, Polish forces of the then-People’s Republic of Poland started to reduce the number of our forces. It took 30 years for us now to reverse.”

The Concept of Defence of the Republic of Poland: http://www.mon.gov.pl/d/pliki/rozne/2017/05/KORP_DRUK_v03_mn2.pdf

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2017, 07:22 AM
5 days of June 2017: 4 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, 16 wounded in 276 attacks


77 attacks by Russian Hybrid Army on Ukrainian positions yesterday. Number increasing again after small drop on June 1st (another ceasefire)

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2017, 07:55 AM
Bellingcat identifies drivers of convoy trucks involved in Buk transportation to Donbas
https://www.unian.info/war/1959559-bellingcat-identifies-drivers-of-convoy-trucks-involved-in-buk-transportation-to-donbas.html#

Two new @bellingcat reports on #MH17, 1st a new photograph reconfirming the exact Russian Buk used to shoot it down
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/06/05/pre-mh17-photograph-buk-332-discovered/#

OUTLAW 09
06-06-2017, 03:06 PM
Russia’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade shot down #MH17 with this BUK missile launcher, killing 298 people.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2017/06/05/pre-mh17-photograph-buk-332-discovered/#

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2017, 07:58 AM
Escalation in Donbas: 8 WIAs amid 85 enemy attacks in last day

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2017, 08:20 AM
Russia funneling money to Donetsk and Luhansk republics via South Ossetia, the only 'state' to recognize the former
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/83791

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2017, 04:37 PM
ATO Press: As fighting continues to escalate by 1800 hrs today 2 Ukrainian soldiers KIA, 11 WIA with 12 hrs to go for this reporting period

OUTLAW 09
06-07-2017, 05:22 PM
Russian slave Zakharchenko speaks Kremlin voice: "We want the whole Donetsk region."

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2017, 08:57 AM
ATO Press: As fighting continues to escalate by 1800 hrs today 2 Ukrainian soldiers KIA, 11 WIA with 12 hrs to go for this reporting period

Over the last day, Russia's troops in Donbas launched 71 enemy attacks on Ukrainian positions.

Any number of Russian attacks over 50 signals full scale combat operations by the Russians...

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2017, 08:58 AM
5 water pumping/filter stations are stopped at Donbas due to fighting

Serious ground fighting erupted along Kruta Balka-Kamyanka line in eastern #Ukraine this morning:
Gov. Zhebrivskyi: Fighting along Kruta Balka-Kamyanka line, +40 explosions near the pumping station (near #Vasylivka), work stopped.

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2017, 09:13 AM
Commander Vasyl Burachuk aka “Komod” was laid to rest June 5 in Zhuravka, Cherkasy Obl. KIA at Volnovakha, Donetsk Obl June 2.

Another of the original Russian separatists who arrived from Crimea on 2014..bites the dust.....not many of the original group is alive and well....

OUTLAW 09
06-08-2017, 09:17 AM
Russia test-fired Iskander-M SRBM outside its territory for the first time
http://defence-blog.com/news/russia-test-fired-iskander-m-srbm-outside-its-territory-for-the-first-time.html#

OUTLAW 09
06-09-2017, 03:23 PM
The ruble’s disconnect with oil prices is growing deeper by the day and something's got to give
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-09/something-has-to-give-as-ruble-strays-further-away-from-oil#


Effects of the sanctions hitting are now hard and Putin cannot cover it up any longer....

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2017, 09:47 AM
71 attacks on Ukrainian positions yesterday, 1 soldier was wounded


Donetsk & #Luhansk separatists attempt to sell stolen #coal to Turkey & Spain at a 50% discount:

OUTLAW 09
06-10-2017, 07:56 PM
Shelling all along the #Donetsk frontline, heavy artillery working

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2017, 09:51 AM
Escalation in Donbas: Ukraine reports 4 KIAs, 7 WIAs in last day

Over 80 attacks on UAF positions all along the Minsk frontline...

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2017, 09:54 AM
The freshly arrived Russian army reinforcements are so new they didn't have time to repaint tactical markings.

Funny that Russian army in Donbas have no time for bucket and brush but have time to post idiocy on social networks.

BREAKING Regular Russian army artillery unit soldiers ID'd in Donetks,May 2017. Have fully loaded MRLS in background

OUTLAW 09
06-11-2017, 12:06 PM
So #OSCE bump into a Russian column entering Ukraine. Rozy Liuksemburh 9km from border. Markyne 3km
http://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/322181#

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2017, 06:52 AM
Donbas: 67 attacks un UAF positions y/day, heavy artillery applied at #Pavlopyl, #Novohryhorivka, #Novotoshkivske. 2 soldiers KIA, 4 WIA.

OUTLAW 09
06-12-2017, 06:57 PM
"The war, which we have forgotten. In the trenches of Donbas"
Der Spiegel, in German, but no need translation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VnoZQlC2jA …

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2017, 08:45 AM
BREAKING Another ex-Berkut, commander of Kiev unit, that violently dispersed Maidan, spotted among Russian OMON on June 12th.
https://twitter.com/aavst/status/874538486153588736#

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2017, 08:55 AM
Still no clear purposes of these attacks, but nothing similar since the start of war. Strategic importance - Volnovakha

Railway to Mariupol? Via Volnovakha, via Ol'hinka - from occupied Donetsk

Azor
06-13-2017, 03:57 PM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/moscows-war-ukraine-deepens-divides-among-russias-cossacks/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 74
By: Paul Goble

Selected Excerpts:


With the encouragement of the Moscow media, many in Russia and the West assume that Russian Cossacks are entirely behind Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, that they are the group the Kremlin can count on as its janissaries against any opponent, and that there is no possibility that Cossacks could ever line up with Ukraine against Russia. But such assumptions are entirely wrong: Putin’s Ukraine adventure has split Russia’s Cossacks perhaps more deeply than any other indigenous people in Russia. Some, indeed, are prepared to fight for Russia in Ukraine, but many others are equally prepared to fight for Ukraine and against Moscow...

Consequently, and seemingly unexpectedly, Putin’s war in Ukraine may come home to haunt him and his regime via the Cossacks, a group the Kremlin leader does not acknowledge as a nation and assumes will be invariably loyal to him.

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2017, 04:16 PM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/moscows-war-ukraine-deepens-divides-among-russias-cossacks/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 74
By: Paul Goble

Selected Excerpts:

Actually quite true...UAF has three Cossack BNs who have been on the frontlines for going on two full years...AND it was Cossacks with Spetsnaz troops that captured Debaltseve

OUTLAW 09
06-13-2017, 04:18 PM
1 Ukrainian serviceman KIA, 5 WIA amid nearly 60 enemy attacks over the past day.

Azor
06-13-2017, 08:58 PM
Actually quite true...UAF has three Cossack BNs who have been on the frontlines for going on two full years...AND it was Cossacks with Spetsnaz troops that captured Debaltseve

You'll notice that the Donbas War has also heightened Chechen divisions, between the Kadyrovtsi fighting with the (pro)Russians and the antagonist clans or factions fighting with the Ukrainians. This is a continuation of the violent struggle that took place in Chechnya and beyond as Kadyrov consolidated power and many of his opponents fled to Ukraine and elsewhere.

A recent New York Times article (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/europe/ukraine-assassin-russia-putin-amina-okuyeva.html?_r=0) tries to depict the attempted assassination of a pro-Ukrainian Chechen couple in Kiev - of which the husband Osmayev had temporarily led the Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion in Donbas - as the work of Putin, coinciding with BuzzFeed's "Poison in the System" investigative report (https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/poison-in-the-system?utm_term=.fgBJLwAVrP#.xxNbPLOg5R).

Yet both articles gloss over the context of the attempted and executed assassinations and over-simplify the dynamics of why Russian citizens are targeted abroad, who targets them and how the "wetwork" is carried out.

In the case of Osmayev and Okuyeva in Kiev, they were Chechens and their would-be assassin was also a Chechen. The Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion is not a formation of any significance, has not been for at least two years, and probably was more significant in 2014-2015 because it was "exotic". At the time of its frontline actions, the opposing (pro)Russian Chechen forces numbered a mere 300. Therefore, the attempted assassination of Osmayev and Okuyeva was almost certainly the work of Kadyrov rather than Putin, as their killing would have served no military or political purpose for the Kremlin.

To be sure, they were opponents of Putin in general, but specifically, they are of importance to Kadyrov.

What the mainstream Western media fails to understand is that Putin's mafia state excels at black covert actions, developing locals into auxiliaries and cobbling together criminals, intelligence officers and special forces operators of varying nationalities to cause havoc. However, Putin's emphasis on plausible deniability of direct Russian involvement makes command and control difficult. Whereas Crimea and Syria were/are "clean" and direct operations, the Donbas War is a mess, and one can never be sure whether the DPR/LPR are lobbing mortars because Putin is turning up the heat on Kiev, or because the DPR/LPR are trying to refocus Moscow's attention on their pressing need for money and materiel.

As for Kadyrov, he has free reign to play Ezhov in Grozny, and sometimes Moscow, so long as he keeps Chechnya "quiet" and within the Federation. Hitler ran a mafia state as well, which was evident when the SS, Abwehr and each military service branch were running their own operations, expropriating their own resources, competing with one another and answering to two separate HQs.

As the real story of Russian meddling in the U.S. election is concerned, we will probably discover that it was in fact an idea thought up by one of Putin's key lieutenants, and then thrown at the wall, rather than a deep, long-term, whole-of-government plot that was directed from the Kremlin's version of the Situation Room.

Another analogue may well be the CIA-led operations to overthrow and/or assassinate Castro, where anti-Castro Cubans were trained as both guerrillas and terrorists, and cobbled together with the Italian-American Mafia.

Azor
06-14-2017, 10:10 PM
Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/lost-soft-power-post-soviet-space-moscow-increasingly-using-hard/
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 78
By: Paul Goble

Introduction:


The aggressiveness Moscow has shown in its relations with countries in the former Soviet space reflects Russia’s loss of influence via “soft” power channels. At the same time, the Kremlin’s demonstrated bellicosity simply exacerbates that loss. Consequently, if President Vladimir Putin is going to rebuild Russia’s sway over the region, as he hopes, he will increasingly have to rely on “hard” power, including military and economic pressure. That—more than any of his personal preferences—explains Putin’s actions up to now, and it sets the stage for the further decomposition of the former Soviet space and for more violence as this process continues. And this trend will necessarily involve outside powers, ranging from China to the Middle Eastern states to the West.

Highlights:


Moscow’s control over the post-Soviet space was predicated upon ethnic Russians and Russophones in neighboring states, but these have declined sharply
Post-Soviet states are turning away from Moscow by seeking membership in NATO, the EU, SCO, etc.
Russian aggression in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine has backfired e.g. in Ukraine, which is considering dispensing with the Cyrillic alphabet
Russia is neither an attractive model or an economic center of gravity
Moscow will have to rely upon force, and has reinforced its deployments to Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, in addition to demanding basing rights in Belarus
The Zapad 2017 exercises will be used to pressure Belarus to comply

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2017, 08:59 AM
You'll notice that the Donbas War has also heightened Chechen divisions, between the Kadyrovtsi fighting with the (pro)Russians and the antagonist clans or factions fighting with the Ukrainians. This is a continuation of the violent struggle that took place in Chechnya and beyond as Kadyrov consolidated power and many of his opponents fled to Ukraine and elsewhere.

A recent New York Times article (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/europe/ukraine-assassin-russia-putin-amina-okuyeva.html?_r=0) tries to depict the attempted assassination of a pro-Ukrainian Chechen couple in Kiev - of which the husband Osmayev had temporarily led the Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion in Donbas - as the work of Putin, coinciding with BuzzFeed's "Poison in the System" investigative report (https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/poison-in-the-system?utm_term=.fgBJLwAVrP#.xxNbPLOg5R).

Yet both articles gloss over the context of the attempted and executed assassinations and over-simplify the dynamics of why Russian citizens are targeted abroad, who targets them and how the "wetwork" is carried out.

In the case of Osmayev and Okuyeva in Kiev, they were Chechens and their would-be assassin was also a Chechen. The Dzokhar Dudayev Battalion is not a formation of any significance, has not been for at least two years, and probably was more significant in 2014-2015 because it was "exotic". At the time of its frontline actions, the opposing (pro)Russian Chechen forces numbered a mere 300. Therefore, the attempted assassination of Osmayev and Okuyeva was almost certainly the work of Kadyrov rather than Putin, as their killing would have served no military or political purpose for the Kremlin.

To be sure, they were opponents of Putin in general, but specifically, they are of importance to Kadyrov.

What the mainstream Western media fails to understand is that Putin's mafia state excels at black covert actions, developing locals into auxiliaries and cobbling together criminals, intelligence officers and special forces operators of varying nationalities to cause havoc. However, Putin's emphasis on plausible deniability of direct Russian involvement makes command and control difficult. Whereas Crimea and Syria were/are "clean" and direct operations, the Donbas War is a mess, and one can never be sure whether the DPR/LPR are lobbing mortars because Putin is turning up the heat on Kiev, or because the DPR/LPR are trying to refocus Moscow's attention on their pressing need for money and materiel.

As for Kadyrov, he has free reign to play Ezhov in Grozny, and sometimes Moscow, so long as he keeps Chechnya "quiet" and within the Federation. Hitler ran a mafia state as well, which was evident when the SS, Abwehr and each military service branch were running their own operations, expropriating their own resources, competing with one another and answering to two separate HQs.

As the real story of Russian meddling in the U.S. election is concerned, we will probably discover that it was in fact an idea thought up by one of Putin's key lieutenants, and then thrown at the wall, rather than a deep, long-term, whole-of-government plot that was directed from the Kremlin's version of the Situation Room.

Another analogue may well be the CIA-led operations to overthrow and/or assassinate Castro, where anti-Castro Cubans were trained as both guerrillas and terrorists, and cobbled together with the Italian-American Mafia.

Sorry disagree with you...European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

If one assumes the Russian spy term "agent of influence" then is in fact correct as to how they define it..........Trump was in the Soviet Union for the first time in 1987....

Soviet KGB and GDR MfS tracked my movements from 1971 onwards....and I knew they were watching from 1972 onwards....remember I probably have far more border crossing stamps in my passport into the former East Bloc than you have entry stamps into the US....when you inherently knew the GDR/Czech/Polish/Soviet border crossing procedures and then are suddenly and totally strip searched for no reason other being told to..... you fully understand that you are being monitored....

Soviet and now Russian intel services are like elephants....slow and thoughtful in planning.......very long in memory. They did not approach me until 1988 and then they got burned badly for their miscalculation.....so what is that say 17 years.....???

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2017, 09:03 AM
We deny any responsibility for implementation of the Minsk Accords or resolving the conflict in #Ukraine.
http://tass.com/politics/951691

OUTLAW 09
06-16-2017, 09:18 AM
Ukraine's intelligence claims that #Russia is unhappy with #Donetsk & #Luhansk breakaway entities' warlords:

https://www.unian.net/war/1979161-zaharchenko-popal-v-nemilost-rossiyskoe-komandovanie-planiruet-otstavki-i-arestyi-v-dnr-razvedka.html#

Azor
06-16-2017, 04:49 PM
Sorry disagree with you...European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

If one assumes the Russian spy term "agent of influence" then is in fact correct as to how they define it..........Trump was in the Soviet Union for the first time in 1987....

Soviet KGB and GDR MfS tracked my movements from 1971 onwards....and I knew they were watching from 1972 onwards....remember I probably have far more border crossing stamps in my passport into the former East Bloc than you have entry stamps into the US....when you inherently knew the GDR/Czech/Polish/Soviet border crossing procedures and then are suddenly and totally strip searched for no reason other being told to..... you fully understand that you are being monitored....

Soviet and now Russian intel services are like elephants....slow and thoughtful in planning.......very long in memory. They did not approach me until 1988 and then they got burned badly for their miscalculation.....so what is that say 17 years.....???

Your reply puzzles me.

I was referring very specifically to the discussion of the attempted assassination of the anti-Russian Chechen couple in Kiev by a Chechen assassin, and how it pertained to Russia's internal dynamics under Putin. I was not referring to Russian intelligence operations against the U.S., as there are other threads for that. Perhaps you are replying to another one of my posts?

I shall print off this particular remark of yours and tape it to the wall beside my monitor:


..European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

You have opened Pandora's Box with that one, mi amigo. As you are aware, I have often harped that contemporary electronic vulnerabilities for presidential election voting have existed since 2000, and that logic dictates that Russian preferences for president in both 2008 and 2012 would have been Obama.

Therefore, if Russian operations began in earnest prior to 2008, then we must question whether Russia supported "change we can believe in" and the anti-war/peace movement that emerged following the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Care to comment?

Azor
06-16-2017, 04:58 PM
Sorry disagree with you...European intel services are indicating the Russian influence ops against the US dates back to 2004 maybe 2005 if one really takes the time to track the info and cyber ops side...

If one assumes the Russian spy term "agent of influence" then is in fact correct as to how they define it..........Trump was in the Soviet Union for the first time in 1987....

Soviet KGB and GDR MfS tracked my movements from 1971 onwards....and I knew they were watching from 1972 onwards....remember I probably have far more border crossing stamps in my passport into the former East Bloc than you have entry stamps into the US....when you inherently knew the GDR/Czech/Polish/Soviet border crossing procedures and then are suddenly and totally strip searched for no reason other being told to..... you fully understand that you are being monitored....

Soviet and now Russian intel services are like elephants....slow and thoughtful in planning.......very long in memory. They did not approach me until 1988 and then they got burned badly for their miscalculation.....so what is that say 17 years.....???

If you were known to the KGB and StaSi, and were being monitored, then how effectively could you have executed your tasks when the time came?

Correct me if I am wrong, but your unit was tasked with subversion and guerrilla warfare in general, and more specifically, to assassinate key Soviet and East German military and intelligence officers, as well as to wreak havoc behind enemy lines. If you were known to the enemy, they would obviously seek to eliminate you first, and of course, had their own SOF/intelligence teams in Western Europe with the same mission sets in mind.

You may also correct me if I say that the Soviets were not your priority. You were in West Berlin, and "unifying" the capital was the preserve of the NVA, not the Soviets. This is not to say that you wouldn't have jaunted over to Karlshorst or Zossen-Wuensdorf to pay your respects to the Ivans, time permitting, but your targets were unreconstructed militant Germans who had traded brown for red, no?

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2017, 10:15 AM
If you were known to the KGB and StaSi, and were being monitored, then how effectively could you have executed your tasks when the time came?

Correct me if I am wrong, but your unit was tasked with subversion and guerrilla warfare in general, and more specifically, to assassinate key Soviet and East German military and intelligence officers, as well as to wreak havoc behind enemy lines. If you were known to the enemy, they would obviously seek to eliminate you first, and of course, had their own SOF/intelligence teams in Western Europe with the same mission sets in mind.

You may also correct me if I say that the Soviets were not your priority. You were in West Berlin, and "unifying" the capital was the preserve of the NVA, not the Soviets. This is not to say that you wouldn't have jaunted over to Karlshorst or Zossen-Wuensdorf to pay your respects to the Ivans, time permitting, but your targets were unreconstructed militant Germans who had traded brown for red, no?

You speak of my SF time in Berlin before 1971....there neither KGB nor Stasi knew of me....

BTW...the research into the Stasi archives on over 100K pages indicated that both KGB and MfS had no earthly idea about the unit other than it existed, strength was not known, nor wartime targets...the unit was stood down by US Army because it was felt that there could be no way that KGB and MfS did not know about the unit.....now with hindsight they knew absolutely nothing.....

I am talking about my time after 1971 and my connections to other organizations ie JAROC (B) and 766th MI, my being a student at the Freie Universitaet, my travels into the East Bloc as a whole and East Berlin in particular and my camping trips to Soviet Union....

When I was allowed to request a Stasi records check I was interested if the records would indicate who might have pointed me out to the MfS and KGB meaning via a Stasi IM agent in West Berlin....

The checks came back indicating two individuals out of my circle of close friends were identified as Stasi IM....and both had written reports on me ...both now in their late 70s...

And based on what happened I was informed I could if I wanted file charges for spying for the MfS and they would be charged and taken to court with a resulting sentence....

I approached the two with the records indicating that I was not going to press charges as for me at least the "war was over on the invisible front"....beside we burned the KGB badly and thus my personal "victory"...

Although both were in fact investigated and questioned by German security services about their past actions...but not charged based on my recommendations...

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2017, 12:15 PM
Why Russia is changing ethnic composition of Crimea
https://www.unian.info/politics/1981059-why-russia-is-changing-ethnic-composition-of-crimea.html#


Exactly what the Soviets did in the Baltics, in eastern Ukraine in the 30s, in Hungarian, and in Belarus.....

Then they can always argue "we are protecting Russian speakers".....

Here they are attempting to eliminate the homeland of the Tartars....

Azor
06-17-2017, 08:26 PM
You speak of my SF time in Berlin before 1971....there neither KGB nor Stasi knew of me....

BTW...the research into the Stasi archives on over 100K pages indicated that both KGB and MfS had no earthly idea about the unit other than it existed, strength was not known, nor wartime targets...the unit was stood down by US Army because it was felt that there could be no way that KGB and MfS did not know about the unit.....now with hindsight they knew absolutely nothing...

But did the West know any more about Detachment A's opposite numbers? Moreover, it was easier for the Communists to form reconnaissance/sabotage groups in the open and free West, than vice versa.


I am talking about my time after 1971 and my connections to other organizations ie JAROC (B) and 766th MI, my being a student at the Freie Universitaet, my travels into the East Bloc as a whole and East Berlin in particular and my camping trips to Soviet Union....

When I was allowed to request a Stasi records check I was interested if the records would indicate who might have pointed me out to the MfS and KGB meaning via a Stasi IM agent in West Berlin....

The checks came back indicating two individuals out of my circle of close friends were identified as Stasi IM....and both had written reports on me ...both now in their late 70s...

And based on what happened I was informed I could if I wanted file charges for spying for the MfS and they would be charged and taken to court with a resulting sentence...

Yes, it seems as though the 766th had its hands full with the East Germans and Hungarians. What made you prefer to "invisible war" to the visible one? Intellectual stimulation?

I always thought that homicide and CI investigators deep down enjoyed the thrill of the chase, as much as their quarry enjoyed evading consequences.


I approached the two with the records indicating that I was not going to press charges as for me at least the "war was over on the invisible front"....beside we burned the KGB badly and thus my personal "victory"...

Although both were in fact investigated and questioned by German security services about their past actions...but not charged based on my recommendations...

Interesting. How was the KGB "burned badly", exactly? Fed disinformation? Networks blown? Agents arrested? Tricked into executing their own framed officers?

I think we can both agree that the Russians have outstanding HUMINT skills and experience, and have been able to turn people without a great deal of money or ideological indoctrination.

I sincerely believe that Snowden, Assange and Winner were turned by Russian intelligence, and that the U.S. IC continues to focus upon non-HUMINT, given its technological superiority and comfort level.

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2017, 10:29 PM
Trenches, tanks, artillery & snipers. My latest podcast episode: 8 days on the front lines of the war in Ukraine

https://soundcloud.com/user-789072772/the-flash-the-boom-and-the-dark-eight-days-on-the-front-lines-of-the-war-in-ukraine#

OUTLAW 09
06-17-2017, 10:41 PM
But did the West know any more about Detachment A's opposite numbers? Moreover, it was easier for the Communists to form reconnaissance/sabotage groups in the open and free West, than vice versa.



Yes, it seems as though the 766th had its hands full with the East Germans and Hungarians. What made you prefer to "invisible war" to the visible one? Intellectual stimulation?

I always thought that homicide and CI investigators deep down enjoyed the thrill of the chase, as much as their quarry enjoyed evading consequences.



Interesting. How was the KGB "burned badly", exactly? Fed disinformation? Networks blown? Agents arrested? Tricked into executing their own framed officers?

I think we can both agree that the Russians have outstanding HUMINT skills and experience, and have been able to turn people without a great deal of money or ideological indoctrination.

I sincerely believe that Snowden, Assange and Winner were turned by Russian intelligence, and that the U.S. IC continues to focus upon non-HUMINT, given its technological superiority and comfort level.

Yes we knew far more than many think about the then Soviet, Polish and GDR versions of the later day Spetsnaz...

You missed the Poles and Czechs.....

The problem is the US after the Wall fell HUMINT did not matter...as all shifted to the tech side...heck even the military language training in German and Russian was stopped.....

BTW......it is always about money with the exception of Winner...remember you are dealing with Americans.

Every American Russian spy in the last 30 years was in it for money..EVEN Pollock...I know of not a single one that did it out of ideology reasons.....

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2017, 09:52 AM
Ukraine reports 5 WIA amid 66 enemy attacks from Russia's troops in Donbas over the last day.

Previous days attack level was 71 with 2KIA and 4WIA...

Whether Trump and his WH NSC want to admit it or not..there is an ongoing Russian ground offensive underway in eastern Ukraine......typical summer offensive based on attack doctrine....

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2017, 10:48 AM
10 myths about Insurgent Army (UPA). Myth #3: #Bandera & nationalists were agents of the Nazi special services
http://uacrisis.org/57390-10-miti-upa-mito-3-bandera#

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2017, 04:59 PM
Vladimir Putin describes Ukraine as ‘the territories now called Ukraine'
https://lnkd.in/gZSBBx2

OUTLAW 09
06-18-2017, 05:22 PM
Electronic warfare sys.in Donbas.Specialists from EW company of RU 19th Motor.RifleBrig detected
http://informnapalm.org/en/electronic-
#

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2017, 04:26 PM
The War No One Notices in Ukraine
https://nyti.ms/2sL1Yua

OUTLAW 09
06-20-2017, 05:07 PM
Breaking - Armed, so-called "DPR" members (Russian forces) have violently attacked #OSCE monitors.

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2017, 10:02 AM
17 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, 95 were wounded in 1157 attacks in 20 days of June 2017

This by any other means would be defined as combat and combat in an actual war.....

OUTLAW 09
06-21-2017, 05:41 PM
Russian settler in Crimea complains about lawlessness, wants to leave. Ironic, isn't it? (In RUS)
http://primechaniya.ru/home/news/iyun_2017/sevzemkontrol_dom_streleckaya_snos/?_utl_t=fb#

Azor
06-21-2017, 07:55 PM
10 myths about Insurgent Army (UPA). Myth #3: #Bandera & nationalists were agents of the Nazi special services
http://uacrisis.org/57390-10-miti-upa-mito-3-bandera#

They were adversaries, but cooperated and fought on occaision, mostly leaving one another alone where possible.

No matter how much Ukrainians use their newfound "information warfare" capabilities, they will not be able to change the fact that the UPA spent most of its time mass-murdering Jewish and Polish civilians in present-day Western Ukraine, while it was under German administration.

To compare the UPA to say the AK or the Yugoslav partisans, would be rather insulting to the latter two groups. There was overlapping membership between the OUN/UPA and collaborationist units, whether S.S., police or other auxiliaries.

However, to claim that Ukraine was more collaborationist than say the French, Belgians, Dutch, Norwegians and Danes, would be inaccurate, given the sheer number that fought as Soviet partisans and in the Red Army. Whereas the Balts, Belarussians, Ukrainians, Romanians and Russians who served with the Wehrmacht could try to claim that they were "justifiably" resisting Stalin's genocidal tyranny, the other nations had no such "excuses".

Postwar, it was heartening to see KGB mass murderers killing UPA mass murderers until the early 1950s. When the East Germans, Hungarians, Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, Romanians, Latvians, Estonians and Lithuanians revolted against the Communists in the late 1980s, there was no "light at the end of the tunnel" in the form of NATO protection or subsidies and job opportunities from Western Europe. The Maidan revolution in 2013-2014 took place in a very, very different context.

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2017, 05:03 PM
11 weapons used by Russia's elite Spetsnaz operators
http://read.bi/2rZrjfG

OUTLAW 09
06-22-2017, 06:20 PM
Artem Gorelov from Izhevsk, Russia, who earlier fought for Ru-backed rebels in Ukraine, was killed in Syria, likely serving in "Wagner" PMC

OUTLAW 09
06-23-2017, 06:39 PM
Video on Russia's military bases in #Ukraine. They're getting bigger & permanent.
https://youtu.be/06XhvDo2lAU

OUTLAW 09
06-25-2017, 01:26 PM
Active RU Air Defense Captain found in Donbas. Summary of @askai707's findings >on @DFRLab
https://medium.com/dfrlab/russian-air-defense-officer-found-exactly-where-putin-said-he-was-not-61a5c359af02#

OUTLAW 09
06-26-2017, 06:04 PM
IgorGirkin‏#
@GirkinGirkin

Димыч
"Непонятно только кого свинтили. Россиян здесь мало и вряд ли они на передок попрутся. Бригадная разведка вроде."

Russia confirms the loss of a GRU recce unit in eastern Ukraine.....

Wondering why Russian army was involved as only handful 7.5K are there.

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 08:57 AM
War on the invisible front is heating up.....

Car-bomb attack in Kyiv today. Victim confirmed as senior military intelligence officer recently back from frontline
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/mercedes-driver-killed-kyiv-car-blast.html#
Maxim Shapoval, Ukrainian Commander of SOF inside Military Intelligence

Video of attack
https://youtu.be/k66zdnLquco

Seems the Russian news media knew about the blast even faster than Ukrainian sources...how was that possible unless they knew in advance of the bombing....

Interesting that the fastest was the russian LifeNews, the Ukrainian media reported this a bit later as them.
Allegedly 500g of TNT was used

NOTE..might be payback for the total killing of a Russian GRU Spetsnaz team that has not be mentioned much in the last days.

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 09:13 AM
War on the invisible front is heating up.....Car-bomb attack in Kyiv today. Victim confirmed as senior military intelligence officer recently back from frontline

This marks third targeted car bombing in Ukraine in less than a year. Sheremet (Kyiv), SBU officer (Mariupol), SOF Military Intel cmdr (Kyiv).

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 01:15 PM
This is an ongoing, widespread and targeted hacking attack coupled with a ransomware attack designed to cripple the entire Ukraine economy and critical infrastructure....

My company is tracking it hard and heavy and providing assistance to Ukrainian companies in recovering.....

Have identified four main servers supporting this attack and they sit deep in Russian...we are attempting to take them off line as of now.....

First two are offline and no longer supporting the attack....

Russian hacking and propaganda thread carrying full details

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 01:16 PM
Some power companies being hit again......

THIRD attack server is now offline and two more are identified this time deeper inside Russia....

What Russia has hit in cyberattack in Ukraine SO FAR:
Government Ministry
Power grid
Banks
Media
Postal
Airport
Cell/internet providers

Cyber attack hit fuel companies.
Two of them, WOG and KLO informed their systems stopped to work, no services

Payments by banking cards aren't accepted

FOURTH Russian attack server is now down...one more identified

This is a true Russian cyber attack now and just now a practice run.....Estonian IT security companies are now in the fray to support Ukraine IT infrastructure ..ransonware is relatively easy to handle ....

Two Polish IT security companies are also mixing into the fray now.....Latvian one as joined in as well...this is developing into an eastern European defensive effort to assist Ukraine...

AND Trump still believes there is no such thing as Russian cyber attacks....he needs to get in his AF1 and come to Ukraine to seen for himself the effects of a Russian cyber attack....

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 01:32 PM
Will not be posting much longer as I and about 14 other IT security companies are in deep support to two major Ukrainian IT companies and it is literally an "all hands on deck event" right now....

This attack is massive in scale and something I have never seen in my lifetime of defending computer networks......

So for those that do not believe there is such as thing as a crippling attack and for those that fluff off the Russian hacking attack on the US election.....

You need to come to Europe and see it first hand....it is real and it is a cyber war right now....

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 04:51 PM
We deny being an aggressor in the Donbass.
http://tass.com/politics/953483

BUT WAIT...actual Russian active duty army units invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014......that has been proven beyond a doubt..maybe not in Putins' head but definitely in Europe's head....

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 05:44 PM
Officer blown up in a car in Kyiv engaged in collecting proof of Russia's war on Ukraine for The Hague
https://www.unian.info/war/1999626-officer-blown-up-in-car-in-kyiv-collected-proof-of-russian-aggression-for-hague-court-media.html#

OUTLAW 09
06-27-2017, 07:45 PM
Reference Russian shot down of MH17....

Russia now disputes @JITMH17's findings; says "RU RADAR COULD NOT HAVE MISSED BUK NEAR ROUTE OF #MH17".
But Russia DID say it WAS a BUK.

Russia now apparently is admitting a BUK shot down MH17

So, either it (1) wasn't a BUK (which both RU and @JITMH17 say it was), or (2) Russia gave fake radar data, or (3) Russia lies now.

OUTLAW 09
06-28-2017, 09:49 AM
Russian Defence Ministry: reports of a Russian serviceman being captured in eastern Ukraine are "a hoax made up by Ukrainian propagandists"


BUT WAIT...the Russian GRU Spetsnaz 22 Bde has been in and out of eastern Ukraine since 2014...THIS was though the first member of 22 Bde to be captured alive and well complete with his Russian active duty military IDs and supporting documents...AND with unit social media photos..with him in them.....

So the Russian statement is FAKE NEWS.....and a "hoax".....NOTICE Russians are now using the Trump term "hoax".....was actually never used before in such statements....

Then i assume that according to the Russian DefMin the other Russian soldier from the same squad killed near Luhansk is alive and well.

Recent UAF statement that a Russian GRU recce team had been eliminated.....appears to be been correct....

OUTLAW 09
06-28-2017, 09:54 AM
As usual this is how the Kremlin treats its own GRU Spetsnaz troops!
Ukraine: "We killed & captured Russian soldiers."
Russia: "They resigned in May 2016."

BTW...when Russia denies something the opposite is actually correct so he was in fact a GRU officer.....

davidbfpo
06-28-2017, 10:21 AM
A short article, which points towards the author's new book and they explain:
...we seek to rectify this by examining their role in the evolution of the conflict, looking at topics such as the popularity of the separatist movement in Donbass, the perception of local political elites, the involvement of private armies and the implications for regional security across the post-Soviet space: how has the annexation of Crimea affected the separatist territories of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria?
Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2017/06/28/the-ukrainian-crisis-the-role-of-and-implications-for-sub-state-and-non-state-actors/

OUTLAW 09
06-28-2017, 01:58 PM
As usual this is how the Kremlin treats its own GRU Spetsnaz troops!
Ukraine: "We killed & captured Russian soldiers."
Russia: "They resigned in May 2016."

BTW...when Russia denies something the opposite is actually correct so he was in fact a GRU officer.....

Russia lying here, of course: BBC has multiple sources confirming captured RF soldier Ageyev signed contract with Russian army in March 2017


BTW...normal contract is for three years so signed 2017...MAR 2020...end date of contract.....

BUT if he was in fact GRU Spetsnaz then he has been longer than before 2017...he must have just shifted over from normal military to the professional contract....

OUTLAW 09
06-28-2017, 04:57 PM
Russia lying here, of course: BBC has multiple sources confirming captured RF soldier Ageyev signed contract with Russian army in March 2017


BTW...normal contract is for three years so signed 2017...MAR 2020...end date of contract.....

BUT if he was in fact GRU Spetsnaz then he has been longer than before 2017...he must have just shifted over from normal military to the professional contract....

Other 4 GRU operatives detained alive in Luhansk region.

OUTLAW 09
06-28-2017, 04:58 PM
Former head of breakaway #Moldova|n region of #Transnistria Ievghenii Sevciuc reportedly fled the entity:

https://www.svoboda.org/a/28584007.html

OUTLAW 09
06-28-2017, 05:09 PM
Aggressive Russian “soft power” in Ukraine on eve of the war:
https://informnapalm.org/en/aggressive-russian-soft-power-in-ukraine-on-eve-of-the-war/#

Azor
06-28-2017, 08:40 PM
A short article, which points towards the author's new book and they explain:
Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2017/06/28/the-ukrainian-crisis-the-role-of-and-implications-for-sub-state-and-non-state-actors/

Yes, I read this article yesterday. A couple of interesting points that lean more toward Galeotti than Goble in perspective:


However, paramilitary troops on both sides have subsequently become an obstacle to effective and efficient military operations, resisting efforts to either integrate them into regular armed forces or disband them...

A variety of other non-state and sub-state actors have either been involved in or impacted by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the book also examines the role of the Russian diaspora in Ukraine, civil society (which Laura Clearly asserts has generally been classed as apathetic, weak and ineffectual) and the Russian approach to sub-state actors across the post-Soviet space.

OUTLAW 09
06-29-2017, 05:07 AM
Yes, I read this article yesterday. A couple of interesting points that lean more toward Galeotti than Goble in perspective:


What is totally forgotten since 2014 is that the actual entry of Girkin into Donbass with his 14 man GRU Spetsnaz right after the little green men entered Crimea.....

There had not been a single event of violence prior to Girkin arriving then the so called "locals" supported by Girkins team started the so call "separatist movement".

If the latest polling is correct and IMHO it is the normal people still living in eastern Ukraine are finally fed up with the fighting and the isolation and want the fighting to stop and be back under Ukraine control.....you see this same development now inside the so called Russian element in Crimea....

OUTLAW 09
07-01-2017, 11:08 AM
Russian Hybrid Army lost 13 soldiers, one tank and one BMP, but occupied new positions near #Kamyanka in grey zone

One Ukrainian soldier killed, 9 wounded in 35 attacks by Russian Hybrid Army yesterday

OUTLAW 09
07-01-2017, 07:09 PM
Abandoned by #Russia: a scout from 22nd Brigade of the GRU captured by Ukrainian #Army (video)
https://informnapalm.org/en/abandoned-russia-scout-22nd-brigade-gru-captured-ukrainian-army-video/#

OUTLAW 09
07-01-2017, 07:40 PM
Amazing: Lavrov admits Russia is a combatant in Eastern Ukraine, despite years of pretending otherwise

OUTLAW 09
07-02-2017, 09:57 AM
Identified: Russian contract soldier of 291st Artillery Brigade in Novorossia illegal armed groups:
https://informnapalm.org/en/identified-russian-contract-soldier-of-291st-artillery-brigade-in-novorossia-illegal-armed-groups/#

OUTLAW 09
07-02-2017, 10:54 AM
Month 33 after #Russia signed the #Minsk protocol saw no halt in (pro-)Russian armed violence.

23 KIA
123 WIA

OUTLAW 09
07-02-2017, 06:56 PM
Expert: Crimea on the verge of withering, Kremlin prepares ultimatum for Ukraine
http://uawire.org/news/expert-crimea-on-the-verge-of-withering-kremlin-prepares-ultimatum-for-ukraine



Russia is experiencing major problems with the water supply to the annexed Crimea. Draught is affecting the agriculture and the industry of the peninsula and the steppe could turn into a lifeless wasteland. In order to resolve this problem, Vladimir Putin may take a radical step – giving Ukraine an ultimatum, writes political columnist Sergey Stelmakh in a blog post for Krym.Realii.

“The Kremlin cannot acknowledge its own failure. Moscow is preparing the information groundwork for a future ultimatum to Ukraine: either Kyiv unblocks the North Crimean Canal, or the Kremlin will use force,” Stelmakh believes.

OUTLAW 09
07-02-2017, 07:01 PM
FSB went astray: two border guards from Blagoveshchensk detained in Kherson Oblast:
https://informnapalm.org/en/fsb-went-astray-two-border-guards-from-blagoveshchensk-detained-in-kherson-oblast/#

OUTLAW 09
07-03-2017, 06:42 PM
Bad news for #Putin. @jensstoltenberg is coming to Kyiv to discuss #Ukraine's prospects of joining #NATO.

Moderator adds: This information is from Anton Sestritsyn‏ @asestritsyn (https://twitter.com/asestritsyn) , not the NATO Secretary-General. The NATO website has nothing on such a visit.

OUTLAW 09
07-04-2017, 07:12 AM
Dutch journalists indirectly confirm place of residence of Russian officer involved in MH17...
https://www.unian.info/society/2007559-dutch-journalists-indirectly-confirm-place-of-residence-of-russian-officer-involved-in-mh17-tragedy-video.html#

OUTLAW 09
07-04-2017, 07:16 AM
Bad news for #Putin. @jensstoltenberg is coming to Kyiv to discuss #Ukraine's prospects of joining #NATO.

Moderator adds: This information is from Anton Sestritsyn‏ @asestritsyn (https://twitter.com/asestritsyn) , not the NATO Secretary-General. The NATO website has nothing on such a visit.

Again this morning 0900 Ukrainian sources are indicating a NATO visit...NATOitself has not publicly rejected this announcement....

NATO has in fact deepened its engagement into Ukraine over the last six months....down to training to NATO standards and the reorg of the UAF to NATO standards.......and building NATO based training centers for both officers and NCOs and for joint exercises complete with a computer based simulation center.....

This was the original announcement...

Андрій Парубій‏
Verified account
#
@AndriyParubiy
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10 липня запланований візит до Києва Генсека #НАТО Єнса Столтенберга @jensstoltenberg Проговоримо перспективи членства України у НАТО @NATO

BTW...this single tweet caused a sudden automated Russian troll/bot spamming attack on the account that sent the tweet.......triggered by the use of the term HATO.....

For more info on this automated style of Russia troll/bot attack see Russian propaganda thread.

OUTLAW 09
07-04-2017, 07:21 AM
Dutch journalists indirectly confirm place of residence of Russian officer involved in MH17...
https://www.unian.info/society/2007559-dutch-journalists-indirectly-confirm-place-of-residence-of-russian-officer-involved-in-mh17-tragedy-video.html#

OUTLAW 09
07-04-2017, 07:34 AM
AND this is not propaganda??....as it is attempting to set a "narrative" that simply does not exist and flies in the face of actual hardcore evidence and even recently UAF captured active duty Russian GRU recce team members inside eastern Ukraine and two FSB officers who had crossed into Ukraine illegally...

One has to ask why did he state this and for whom??

Shawn Steel (GOP national committeeman) :
@realDonaldTrump doesn't need to bring up Ukraine with Putin, as Putin has backed out of Ukraine"


Russian 6Ds Propaganda Principles

Distort....Distract...Deflect....Dismiss....ALL designed to create Doubt and Distrust...

So what did this individual just use and why???

OUTLAW 09
07-04-2017, 08:08 AM
AND those "backed out Russians" the GOP individual was talking about in the last post....

"Ceasefire" in Donbas: 2 KIA's, 3 WIA's amid 22 enemy attacks in last day

OUTLAW 09
07-05-2017, 08:16 AM
New 2014 video on how Russia invaded Ukraine. Focus on establisment of lg Russian army supply depot
https://youtu.be/XLqFNYVNiFQ
#

OUTLAW 09
07-05-2017, 08:34 AM
Trials linked to downing of passenger flight MH17 to be held in Netherlands
http://reut.rs/2soR3TW

Witness in the #MH17 case Colonel Geranin of the #Russian GRU arrested
https://informnapalm.org/en/witness-in-the-mh17-case-colonel-geranin-of-the-russian-gru-arrested#

OUTLAW 09
07-05-2017, 10:35 AM
Ukraine Army's 30th Mech. Bgde. returns to their N-W. UA garrison town after the 3-years duty tour in #Donbass. 141 men & women lost.

30h Mech Bde has been in the thick of the fighting since it began in 2014.....

In 2014 they were fighting with little to no new equipment against well equipped Russian active duty armored forces......

Now they are well equipped and considered to be one of the best combat UAF units equal to anything on the US side now....after three years of ongoing and constant combat operations...the 71st Mech right behind them on the combat quality scale....

Overall UAF has reached a combat level that even Russian mercenary commanders admit can defeat them head to head if it were not for 100,000 Russian troops near Ukrainian borders....and this even though the mercenaries have had extensive Russian training and are equipped with modern Russia equipment....

Azor
07-05-2017, 08:18 PM
Ukraine Army's 30th Mech. Bgde. returns to their N-W. UA garrison town after the 3-years duty tour in #Donbass. 141 men & women lost.

30h Mech Bde has been in the thick of the fighting since it began in 2014.....

In 2014 they were fighting with little to no new equipment against well equipped Russian active duty armored forces......

Now they are well equipped and considered to be one of the best combat UAF units equal to anything on the US side now....after three years of ongoing and constant combat operations...the 71st Mech right behind them on the combat quality scale....

Overall UAF has reached a combat level that even Russian mercenary commanders admit can defeat them head to head if it were not for 100,000 Russian troops near Ukrainian borders....and this even though the mercenaries have had extensive Russian training and are equipped with modern Russia equipment....

Certainly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces outnumber the separatist forces 1.5-2:1, assuming that we are only counting Ukraine’s active and deployed forces. However, it would be a bridge too far to claim that the 30th or 71st Bdes are “equal to anything on the US side”, or even to the Russians.

With regard to the development of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, here is what Franklin Holcomb at the Institute for the Study of War had to say in December 2016 (http://iswresearch.blogspot.ca/2016/12/the-order-of-battle-of-ukrainian-armed.html):




The Ukrainian armed forces have been partially restructured and strengthened in the face of this constant pressure, enough to stabilize the front lines for a time. They require significantly more support of all varieties, however, if they are to stop the advance of Russia and its proxies permanently, to say nothing of reversing the armed occupation of Ukrainian territory.



These forces still suffer from a lack of modern equipment and from an incompletely reformed organizational structure. Ukrainian front-line soldiers have learned much from the protracted conflict and now outmatch separatist forces operating in eastern Ukraine.



The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in the midst of a transition from the Soviet structure on which they were based and remain inefficiently-organized. Ukrainian front-line troops also lack standardized modern weaponry. Ukraine’s defense sector remains highly productive, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not have the modern weaponry necessary to allow them to counter Russian military intervention. Ukrainian Ground Forces will be unable to provide a true deterrent to offensive action by regional aggressors until these problems are addressed.



The Ukrainian Air Force’s high vulnerability to even limited deployments of Russian anti-air systems raises serious concerns about its ability to fight against a conventional combined arms force.



The Ukrainian Navy is currently the weakest navy in the Black Sea region. It is weaker than the Russian Black Sea Fleet as well as the navies of NATO members Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria, though is slightly stronger than the Georgian Coast Guard.



Ukraine’s Special Operations Command is still nascent, however, and Ukrainian special operations forces have yet to become a fully mature force.



Igor Sutyagin at the Royal United Services Institute assessed the presence of Russian forces operating in Donbas (https://web.archive.org/web/20151026225900/https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/201503_BP_Russian_Forces_in_Ukraine_FINAL.pdf). The strength of Russian forces in Donbas rose from roughly 3,500 to 6,500 around August 2014 to 9,000 to 11,000, around December 2014 through February 2015. However, based upon estimates of insurgent strength, Russian forces never comprised more than 25% of the total forces arrayed against Ukraine, although they obviously were the best-equipped and trained.

Russia’s active presence in Donbas – as opposed to deployments along Ukraine’s borders and in Crimea – has always been a situation of water sloshing over the sides of a saucepan, rather than being dumped. Russia has fought the war with at least one hand tied behind its back. If the other hand were brought out, whether by way of full deployment or combined-arms (i.e. airpower), the Ukrainians would find themselves in all sorts of trouble to paraphrase Joe Rogan.

Azor
07-05-2017, 08:54 PM
By Deborah Sanders at Defence-in-Depth: https://defenceindepth.co/2017/07/05/ukraines-military-reform-and-the-conflict-in-the-east/

Introduction:


One of the key challenges of military reform for any military organisation is the question: 'are we preparing for the right war?' In my article The War We Want; The War That We Get: Ukraine’s Military Reform and the Conflict in the East (http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518046.2017.1271652), I examine this issue in the context of Ukrainian efforts before and after the start of the conflict in the Donbas.

Prior to the Russian annexation of Crimea and the emergence of conflict in the east of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military were engaged in a process of military reform. This process was influenced heavily by the so-called ‘transformation paradigm’: a model of war articulated by the US that identified future military effectiveness with such concepts as agility, concentration, digitisation, and information. However, by 2014 it had become increasingly evident that the Ukrainian government had been trying to adopt a model of warfare that was beyond the capability of the Ukrainian state to deliver and which did not fit the reality of the war that Ukraine’s armed forces actually had to face. By 2015 it had become increasingly clear that the war in the east was not the rapid and mobile warfare that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) had been conceptually and structurally preparing for, at least in theory, since 2006. In my article, I examine how the UAF have been forced to adopt a new model of military reform – resuscitation – a process of recreating older approaches which, in the context of actual combat in the Donbas, is better suited to the nature of the conflict than continued attempts to replicate aspects of the transformation model. The key aspects of the resuscitation of the UAF have included: the reintroduction of mass; organic ‘bottom-up’ innovation; and the utilisation of what were, in effect, pre-modern methods of mobilisation.

Highlights:



The UAF reversed the process of professionalization as these forces were too small, and the war in Donbas has highlighted the need for mass, reserves and stockpiles. Conscription was reintroduced in May 2014 to raise the UAF to a strength of 250,000


Organic and bottom-up innovation has been key to Ukraine’s war effort. Civil society networks have crowd-funded and delivered funding and supplies to frontline UAF units


Some of the most effective Ukrainian units were militias raised by oligarchs, and these 50 volunteer battalions of ~10,000 fighters played a vital role in containing the separatists through 2014 and 2015, despite being under-equipped and trained


Was it the right decision for so many militaries to try to realize a transformation toward an American approach to warfighting that was overly ambitious?


In addition, can we presume that the conditions of war will allow us to fight the way we want to? The nature of the Donbas conflict poses questions about the resilience of many European militaries. Will militaries designed for short wars of maneuver be able to cope with protracted attrition?

OUTLAW 09
07-06-2017, 06:28 AM
Azor....will respond here vs the previous article which IMHO does not really say much other than someone wrote it.....

1. From 2006 to 2013 I trained over 41 BCT Command Staffs both at the National Training Center Ft. Erwin and or here in Germany....

2. At no time were any of those 41 BCTs capable of fighting tank on tank and using artillery in a 1990s style of fire and maneuver.

3. Artillery units were largely being used for personnel backfill...meaning either in Iraq or AFG they were prison guards, convoy escorts etc....but never did fill the role of artillery units firing in support

4. Fire and maneuver typical for the US Army from 1990 largely no longer existed and tank units had literally lost their edge in this area...at the height of say 1990 a US tank was trained to handle up to 24 moving targets in a kill chain before maybe underline maybe they would be hit themselves...then it was on to another 24 targets...in 2013 they were lucky to acquire three...in a kill chain before being hit.

It is just now that the NTC has finally and fully shifted to exercising Russian combat doctrine in the deserts of California and where it is again tank on tank with artillery in fire support.....

For the first time this writer is starting to get close to the acutal UAF issues and initial problems......

BUT a small reminder....both the 30th and 72 Mech Bdes in 2014.....using fire and maneuver had moved literally into a position of actually militarily defeating Girkin and his rag tage army of so called separatists and had established fire bases actually along the Russian Ukrainian borders. If you remember from 2014....all my posts will back this up....it was only through extensive Russian cross border artillery and rocket strikes that beat UAF back from the border areas and it was a FULL scale Russian active duty military invasion of Donbass in 2014 that "literally" saved Girkin and his rag tags.

Social media was reporting those cross border ongoing attacks...MSM largely ignored them BTW.....

AND yes it was the volunteer BNs using whatever weapons they could get their hands on that beat back elements of Girkin in heavy fighting especially in the Mariupol and Odessa areas....AND it took regular Russian Army units to beat the volunteers and regular UAF in Debaltseve in 2015....and it was Azor that took back portions of the Mariupol front lines and held it repeatedly against heavy Russian regular army attacks....

And it was the Cyborgs a mixture of volunteer and regular UAF that held the Donetsk airport for over 272 days of heavy fighting....that gave UAF time to reorg, refit and reposition.....BTW that defence of a single surrounded point was longer than Stalingrad.....

The author is right the UAF is attempting to balance a NAO style concept with the war of trenches, heavy arty strikes, heavy EW and constant GRU raids and recce....seen now daily in eastern Ukraine....almost like 1917....in some aspects.

NOT even the US Army would have during the 2016 and now in the ongoing trench fighting have held their own as has never been trained to fight in radio silence under heavy artillery and rocket strikes and without a large scale fire and manuever element in the fighting....in depth positional fighting is not the US style....

Two things have come out of the fighting.....

1. UAF has developed a unique style of defense in depth that has largely stymied all Russian attempts to break through their defensive lines and UAF has taken ever slowly territory back under control along the Minks line

2. UAF has built up via private medical training and massive US and NATO field medical training and recovery of wounded and how to evac wounded while under heavy fire without copters......a solid capacity to do all of this and fight at the same time ....lowering the high wounded loss rates in 2014 and 2015......even the US has never really exercised that piece before 2016...

The building of an immediate treatment and rapid medical recovery capacity has gone a long way in stabilizing the UAF personal views on survival under heavy fire. and has given UAF a mental resilience that is missing in the Russian separatist units...

Lastly what the separatists cannot match nor have been able to match is the troop leadership in the BNs and below and lately greater improvement at the Bde levels...this is exactly where you will find a majority of the separatist units having even now Russian active duty staff officers.....

So again based on actual experience with US BCTs the 30th and 72th are equal to some of the better US BCTs in the current fighting style of eastern Ukraine....

Example, in Iraq a BCT main base would panic if the insurgents fired a rocket barrage or mortar barrage of say three rounds.....and what does UAF see daily and under fire from up to 152mm artillery....

Even in VN our camp was use to 700-1300 rocket and mortar rounds per day and yet we continued with ease combat operations..and all we had was a helmet.....and no body armor.....the current US Army units are nowhere close to understanding how to operate under these conditions...they are learning but until they get hit with the real thing it is only an "exercise"....

Reference SOF, while they were never armed and equipped as their NATO and US counterparts...they participation in the early fighting has largely remained unknown....but their recce abilities were in heavy use during 2014 through 2016....

You hear even from US SOF their surprise in how good UAF SOF actually is vs. what the image of them is out there....it has been the excellent UAF SOF counter Spetsnaz operations that many do not hear about...that led to the latest elimination of an entire Russian active duty Spetsnaz team...5 captured six killed.....

I still go back to the original statement by one of the respected separatist commanders who is still alive since 2014...the UAF would walk over us if not for the Russian army on the border....

OUTLAW 09
07-06-2017, 07:26 AM
Pro-Russian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov created and finances a terrorist battalion fighting against Ukraine
https://spark.adobe.com/page/rcSWj7PtixPkk/#

YET he owns virtually every major business in eastern Ukraine....BUT never paid any taxes to Ukraine even before Maidan...