Afghanis 'May Not be Ready' in 2009

[SWJED]

22 April Globe and Mail - Afghanis 'May Not be Ready' in 2009 (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070422.wafghan0422/BNStory/Afghanistan/home).

The commander of Canadian forces in Afghanistan says it is uncertain if the Afghan military will be able to go it alone by 2009.

But Brigadier-General Tim Grant says Canadian efforts have already paid plenty of dividends to the people of Afghanistan...

He says there's a plan and a schedule in place to ensure Afghan National Army troops are trained and up to speed before a possible Canadian pullout two years from now.

But he says the jury is still out on whether the shattered country will be ready to go it alone if international assistance forces leave in 2009...

[Ski]

I'd lay good money down that the ANA won't be ready by 2019 if ever. The primary loyalties of most Afghans do not lie with the Karzai government.

[tequila]

Afghan soldiers failing to reenlist (http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1268121.0.0.php).

Less than half of the fledgling Afghan National Army's 32,000 British and US-trained soldiers have chosen to re-enlist after three years in uniform, according to figures obtained by The Herald.

The 42% retention rate means Nato troops will have to shoulder the burden for security, and the casualties that go with it, well beyond the three-year mission authorised by the UK government - and due to expire in 2009.

Plans to train and field a 70,000-strong national force are already running two years behind schedule, and only about 20,000 local soldiers can be located with their units at any given time. Although desertion rates have slowed from the 50% recorded in 2005, the Afghan troops are unhappy with rates of pay, £40 a month for new recruits, as well as lack of basic equipment and poor logistics ...

[Ski]

Yes, that was but one minor issue with a force riddled with major issues.

[SWJED]

2 May NY Times - As Funding Increases, Afghan Forces Range From Ragtag to Ready (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/02/world/asia/02kabul.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin) by C. J. Chivers.

... These wildly contrasting glimpses of Afghanistan’s security forces illustrate the mix of achievements and frustrations that have accompanied international efforts to create a capable Afghan Army and a police force after decades of disorder and war. They also underscore the urgency behind the renewed push to recruit and train these units, which is now under way with an influx of equipment and training approved by the Bush administration last year.

Yet, even after several years of efforts to create new army and police units, it remains difficult to fully assess their readiness. Some units, especially in the army, are motivated and much better equipped than any Afghan forces were five years ago. Others, especially in the police, remain visibly ragtag, underequipped, disorganized, of uncertain loyalty and with links to organized drug rings.

American officials say it will take at least a few years before most of the Afghan forces become more ready and reliable, and perhaps a decade before they are capable of independent operations. But they also say that the resources and plans are now in place to make such ambitions possible.

These ambitions are important because American military officials say a principal element of any Western exit strategy from Afghanistan will be to create competent national security forces. Such forces are regarded as necessary to contain, and eventually defeat, the Taliban insurgency that expanded in 2006, and to provide stability in regions where the government’s influence remains weak...